Winning Sports Picks

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants -142

The Giants picked up a big win last night to pull into a tie with the Mets for the two wild card spots in the National League.  They lead the Cardinals by one-half game now, and they need every win they can get.

I've been impressed with Albert Suarez, who is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  One of those starts came against San Diego on September 13 as Suaraz gave up just one earned run in 5 innings.

Edwin Jackson remains one of the worst starters in baseball, going 4-5 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He gave up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Colorado.  Jackson is 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in nine career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  San Diego is 1-5 in Jackson's last six starts.  The Padres are 1-6 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Giants Friday.

20* USC/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes almost always seem to have some magic at home, and this is a very small number for them to have to cover Friday night against a USC team that is in shambles right now.

The Utes have opened 3-0 and have been pretty dominant in the process. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.0 points per game and outgaining them by 154 yards per game.

The key for the Utes has been the defense, which has been a staple since Kyle Whittingham took over. The Utes are only allowing 12.0 points and 263.7 yards per game this season. They have played both BYU and San Jose State, which are two capable offenses, too.

Utah has gotten some nice quarterback play from first-year starter Troy Williams. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 723 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The rushing attack is solid once again, averaging 169 yards per game thus far.

USC just isn’t responding to Clay Helton for whatever reason. The Trojans have now lost four of their last five games overall dating back to last season. They haven’t even been competitive in their two losses this season.

The Trojans were pummeled 52-6 by Alabama in the opener, getting held to just 194 total yards in the loss. Last week they were overmatched in a 10-27 road loss to Stanford as well, letting Christian McCaffrey do whatever he wanted to them.

The USC front seven defensively is the biggest issue. They only brought one starter back among the front seven this season. And the Trojans gave up 242 rushing yards to Alabama and 295 to Stanford. Now they are dealing with some injuries up front as DT Noah Jefferson, DT Khaliel Rodgers and LB Quinton Powell are all questionable, while DE Osa Masina has left the team.

The Trojans are also pushing the panic button offensively and moving on from junior QB Max Browne already. They are expected to start freshman Sam Darnold in his place this week, and I can guarantee you that Salt Lake City is not the place you want to make your first start as a freshman.

The difference in this game is going to be Utah's defensive line dominating USC's offensive line.  The Utes have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that was on display last week as they recorded a whopping 10 sacks against San Jose State.  Eight different players accounted for sacks in that game.  Darnold is going to be under duress all game.

The home team has won three straight meetings. Utah is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game. Whittingham is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game as the coach of Utah. The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Bet Utah Friday.

20* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +1

The Patriots are now down to their third-string quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. That’s because Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt in the third quarter and is doubtful to play this week. The Dolphins made their comeback last week after being down 31-3 once Garoppolo went out, eventually losing 31-24.

The difference between Tom Brady and Garoppolo is only a few points, but the difference between Garoppolo and Brissett is worth more. This is such a tough situation for a rookie quarterback on a short week that I can’t possibly foresee Brissett having much success. The Patriots are the type of team that can get him ready, but I’d rather bet against it.

The Patriots were extremely conservative with their play-calling against the Dolphins with Brissett.  In fact, his average pass attempt sailed only 3 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That conservative game plan isn't going to work this week.

Not only is it tough that it’s a short week for Brissett, it makes it even harder with the fact that he’s up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Texans. Houston has only allowed 13.0 points and 274.5 yards per game in back-to-back victories over the Bears and Chiefs. The Texans held the Chiefs to four field goals and didn’t allow them to get into the end zone last week.

Brock Osweiler is doing a fine job of running the offense as the Texans are putting up 21.0 points and 347.5 yards per game this season. Osweiler is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 499 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions thus far. Lamar Miller has been a workhorse, rushing for 189 yards on 53 carries. Will Fuller is proving to be a steal, catching nine balls for 211 yards and a score.

Osweiler and the offense should be primed for a big game against a Patriots defense that is giving up 401.5 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play thus far. The Patriots have injuries on defense to LB Dont’a Hightowr and LB Rob Ninkovich. Offensively, the Patriots are without OT Sebastian Vulmer, and they could be without G Jonathan Cooper and TE Rob Gronkowski, who has missed the first two games already with a hamstring injury.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons (were favored before today). I believe the right team is favored here due to the injury situation for the Patriots. I know it’s tough to win in New England, but Miami nearly pulled it off last week, and the Texans should be able to now that the Patriots are down to their third-string quarterback.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -106

Don't look now but the Pittsburgh Pirates have won six of their last seven games overall to pull within 3.5 games of the final wild card spot.  Their chances are still slim, but they at least have a fighting chance.  I like the price we are getting with them here against the lowly Brewers.

Ryan Vogelsong is 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is 6-2 with a 4.27 ERA in 11 career starts against Milwaukee.  Vogelsong is 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last six starts against the Brewers, giving up 3 earned runs or fewer in all six starts.

Chase Anderson is 8-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 28 starts this season, and 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in seven career starts against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 in its last seven road games.  The Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Pirates are 6-1 in Vogelsong's last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in Anderson's last five starts with five days of rest.  Roll with the Pirates Thursday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson -9.5

I believe this line would be higher had the Tigers not struggled in their first two games of the season with narrow victories over Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24). They certainly could have been suffering a hangover from their loss in the National Championship, but they got it out of their system with a 59-0 win over South Carolina State last week.

Now that the Tigers are into conference season, expect them to put their best foot forward this week against Georgia Tech. And I believe that will be enough to win by double-digits, which is all it’s going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread Thursday.

While Clemson is undervalued after its shaky start, Georgia Tech is overvalued after its 3-0 start. But it’s not like the Yellow Jackets have beaten anyone of any significance. Their three wins have come against Vanderbilt, Boston College and Mercer. Vanderbilt is 1-2 this season, Mercer is an FCS foe, and Boston College just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0 last week.  And Georgia Tech was outgained by 82 yards by Boston College in a 17-14 win.

Clemson is every bit as good as it was last season, and if it plays like it did against Georgia Tech last year, it will run away with this game as well. The Tigers rolled the Yellow Jackets 43-24 at home in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained them 537-230 for the game, or by 307 total yards. They held Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack to just 71 rushing yards on 42 carries, or an average of 1.7 per carry.

This Clemson defense has been dominant again this season, giving up just 12.3 points, 250.0 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  The Tigers are holding opponents to 12.4 points and 126 yards per game less than their season averages.  They are also giving up only 92 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, which is 106 yards per game and 2.0 per carry less than their opponents' season averages.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – off three or more consecutive unders, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.

Clemson is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games off a win by 35 points or more. The Tigers are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game. Dabo Swinney is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the coach of Clemson. The Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Georgia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Clemson Thursday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants +160

The San Francisco Giants finally closed out a game in the 9th inning last night.  They won 2-0 over the Dodgers after previously going 5-5 in the month of September when leading in the 9th.  I look for that win to give them a ton of confidence heading in Game 3 of this series tonight, and I love the price we are getting here.

Matt Moore has won each of his last two starts with a 3.00 ERA while allowing only four earned runs in 12 innings and striking out 15.  Moore has been untouchable in his last two starts against the Dodgers, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 15 1/3 shutout innings and allowing only 12 base runners.

Kenta Maeda is having a fine season for the Dodgers at 15-9 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.098 WHIP over 29 starts.  However, he is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Maeda gave up 3 earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings in his most recent start against the Giants on August 23rd.

The Dodgers are 0-7 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of three runs or less two straight games over the last three seasons.  San Francisco is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line after allowing four runs or less six straight games this season.  The Dodgers are 0-5 in Maeda's last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Giants Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -111

This is a really good price for the New York Mets at home.  They currently own the top wild card spot in the National League, but they are only one game ahead of both the Giants and Cardinals.  So every game they are treating like a must-win from here on out.

Robert Gsellman has held his own for the Mets, going 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA in four starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three.  He pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Nationals in his last outing, and now he's up against one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Braves.

Julio Teheran has been the Braves' best starter, but he's getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here today given what the Mets have to play for, and that the Braves are playing for nothing but pride.

Teheran is 1-8 (-7.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.  The Braves are 7-20 in Teheran's last 27 starts.  The Mets are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall, including 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -110

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  But they picked up two big wins over the Giants over the weekend to pull within one game of San Francisco for the final wild card spot.  Now they have some momentum heading into this series with the Rockies.

This is a very generous price on the Cardinals considering they will be sending ace Carlos Martinez to the mound.  Martinez is 14-8 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 8-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 13 road starts.

There's no question that Tyler Anderson is also the ace for the Rockies, going 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  However, given what's at stake for the Cardinals, he should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today, especially against a starter the caliber of Martinez.

St. Louis is 20-7 in Martinez's last 27 road starts.  The Rockies are 11-27 in their last 38 vs. National League Central opponents.  TheCardinals are 7-1 in Martinez's last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

20* Eagles/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

The Bears are in prime bounce-back position here Monday night after losing on the road to the Texans in Week 1. They played the Texans tough for a half, but let a 14-10 lead slip away as they were blanked after intermission in their 23-14 loss.

Now the Bears head to Soldier Field for their first home game of the season. They’ll be highly motivated to avoid dropping to 0-2 on the season. Teams that start 0-2 rarely make the playoffs, and the Bears are looking at this as a must-win.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are overvalued and riding high right now after their 29-10 win over the Browns last week. They took care of business like they were supposed to against the worst team in the NFL.

Carson Wentz was solid against an awful Browns’ defense, but now the rookie will face his first NFL road game, and I don’t expect it to go nearly as well. John Fox has had a great defense everywhere he has been, and this stop unit in Chicago is better than it gets credit for.

The offense wasn’t atrocious last year for the Bears as they averaged 20.9 points and 344.6 yards per game. It should prove to be even better in 2016 now that Jay Cutler has a true No. 2 receiver in Kevin White, the first-round pick from 2015 that had to sit out all of last year. He pairs with Alshon Jeffery as one of the better WR duos in the NFL. Cutler is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and was solid in the opener.

John Fox is 30-14 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards per game in all games he has coached. After losing the time of possession battle 23 to 37 against the Texans, look for Fox to emphasize getting the running game going. That was the biggest difference in the game despite the fact that the Bears held the Texans to 135 yards on 35 carries, which is just 3.7 per carry. The Bears carried 20 times for 73 yards, which is also 3.7 per carry.

After going just 1-7 at home last season, the emphasis of the Bears this offseason has been to protect their home field, and they certainly want to make a statement in their first home game. The Eagles are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Week 2. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games. The Bears are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Bears Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +7

The Los Angeles Rams represent my favorite play of the early season, and I don't believe there will be a better bet in the NFC West the rest of the season than taking the Rams as touchdown home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Rams couldn't have looked worse than they did in their 28-0 loss to the 49ers Monday night.  However, that performance has them way undervalued right now as the betting public is looking to fade them.  They public always loves the Seahawks anyways, so this is the perfect storm where we are getting max value.  I fully expect the Rams to win outright, but can't pass up the 7 points.

I am willing to throw away the game tape from the 49ers' game as that is clearly not the team that Rams are going to be the rest of the season.  They will be highly motivated here to come back in their first home game at the Coliseum and make up for that embarrassment, and their fans will be in full force.

There's no way the Seahawks should be getting this much respect after barely beating the Dolphins 12-10 as 10.5-point home favorites last week.  They actually needed a TD with 31 seconds left to escape with victory.  Russell Wilson was harassed the entire game and wound up with an ankle injury, which is sure to slow him down.  Now the Seahawks' offensive line will be up against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams have played the Seahawks extremely tough in recent years.  In fact, they swept the season series last year, winning 34-31 (OT) as 3.5-point home dogs, and 23-17 as 11.5-point road dogs.

They have been extremely competitive at home against the Seahawks, going 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings with three outright upsets. Their only loss came by 5 points.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Pete Carroll is 2-9 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Jeff Fisher is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams.  Look for him to get his team to respond in a big way this week and pull the outright upset, if not cover the 7 points.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

Many would look at the 16-25 loss the Titans suffered against the Vikings last week as a near-blowout.  However, a closer look into the box score shows that the Titans should have won that game.  They led 10-0 at halftime, but gave up two defensive touchdowns after intermission and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Titans held the Vikings to just 301 total yards and managed 316 yards of offense, outgaining them by 15 yards for the game.  The defense didn't allow a single offensive touchdown as the Vikings had to settle for four field goals.  They also limited the Vikings to only 65 rushing yards on 28 carries, which is just over 2.0 yards per carry.  Adrian Peterson only had 31 yards on 19 carries. 

Marcus Mariota looked great, throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.  He should have a field day against a Lions' defense that is absolutely terrible.  The Lions gave up 460 total yards and 35 points to the Colts last week.  They were only able to win that game because the Colts' defense is terrible and gave up 39.

Because the Lions won on the road at Indianapolis, they are being way overvalued this week as 6-point favorites.  Because the Titans lost at home to the Vikings, they are being undervalued.  It's a great situation here as we are simply catching more points with the Titans than we should be.  They will bring it as they don't want to start 0-2.

Plays against home favorites who allowed 24 or more points/game last year, after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-3 ATS L31 (90.3%).  The Lions are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  The Titans are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Look for this game to be close throughout and for Tennessee to easily stay within 6 points and likely pull off the upset.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The New England Patriots were playing with a chip on their shoulder against the Arizona Cardinals last week.  They wanted to prove that they could win without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and that's exactly what they did.  But now I don't see them playing with as big of an edge here against Miami as this is the perfect spot to fade them in a letdown situation.

There's no way the Patriots would be 6.5-point favorites over the Dolphins this week had they lost to the Cardinals last week.  So, they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers, and it's time to fade them now.

The Patriots got to use an element of surprise playing without Brady and Gronk as the Cardinals didn't know what to expect.  But now the Dolphins will dissect the film and figure out how to stop them, because the Patriots are going to be without Brady and Gronk again this week.  They are also expected to be without LB Dont'a Hightower, OT Nate Dolder and G Jonathan Cooper.  Not to mention, OT Sebastian Vollmer and DE Rob Ninkovich are already out.

I was impressed with Miami in its opener against the Seahawks.  It lost that game 10-12 in a hostile environment on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  The Dolphins arguably should have won as they allowed a touchdown with 31 seconds left.  If they can compete in Seattle, then can certainly compete in New England against a Patriots team that is missing a ton of key players.

Miami's defense is vastly improved this season as it has one of the best defensive lines in the league.  The Dolphins were pressuring Russell Wilson all game long thanks to their front four consistently getting pressure.  That front four should be a difference-maker again this week against a depleted New England offensive line.

The Dolphins have some good news on the injury front as RB Arian Foster and DE Mario Williams are both expected to play.  Ryan Tannehill didn't have his best game against the Seahawks, but he also avoided the big mistakes.  He should be much more effective against the depleted Patriots' defense this week.

Miami has actually won three of its last five meetings with New England.  The Patriots were playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 17 last year, and they lost 10-20 in Miami as 10-point favorites.  The Dolphins had a big day offensively, racking up 438 yards and limiting the Patriots to 196, outgaining them by 242 yards for the game.  Tannehill has his best game in the series, going 25-of-38 for 350 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Plays on underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games are 65-30 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami didn't get any respect last week against Seattle, and it isn't getting the respect it deserves this week against New England.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Texas +36

By no means do I think North Texas is going to upset Florida.  But I certainly believe the Mean Green will be good enough to stay within 36 points of the Gators this week.  And it has more to do with Florida than North Texas.

Florida is coming off a 45-7 win over Kentucky as 14-point favorites, covering the spread by 24 points.  That effort has the Gators overvalued, and has the betting public quickly forgetting about the fact that Florida only beat UMass 24-7 at home the previous week as 35-point favorites, failing to cover by 18 points.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida only led UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter in that game.

Florida came back with a big effort last week in its SEC opener, which was to be expected.  But now the Gators are back in a flat spot here against North Texas, stepping out of conference play before facing rival Tennessee on the road next week.  There's no question the Gators will be looking ahead to that game, especially with all the back-and-forth clashing the teams did through the media in the offseason.

That blowout win over Kentucky was an aberration, too.  Florida won 10 games last year but only outscored opponents by 4.9 points per game.  It beat East Carolina by 7 at home as 20-point favorites, Vanderbilt by 2 at home as 20-point favorites, and Florida Atlantic by 6 (OT) as 29-point favorites at home.

You just can't trust this team when laying big points because their offense isn't explosive enough to cover these big numbers.  They only averaged 23.2 points and 334 yards per game last year.  It's also worth nothing that Florida's leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13 receptions, 201 yards, 2 TD) is doubtful Saturday with a quad injury, only further hampering their already lackluster offense.  Callaway was their leading receiver last year (35, 674, 4 TD) too.

North Texas was awful last year at 1-11, but it is going to be improved this season with 14 starters and 61 lettermen back and only 17 lettermen lost.  North Texas played SMU tough in the opener in a 21-34 loss.  That was the same SMU team that was tied with Baylor 6-6 at halftime last week on the road.

The Mean Green got in the win column last week with a convincing 41-20 win over Bethune-Cookman as 11-point favorites.  They outgained the Wildcats 450-231 for the game, or by 219 total yards.  They rushed for 329 yards and 6.5 per carry in the win.  It was certainly a confidence booster for this team as any win is big right now.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (NORTH TEXAS) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against home favorites (FLORIDA) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Florida is 0-6 ATS in home games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Texas State +31

The Arkansas Razorbacks are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off a 41-38 (OT) win at TCU last week to pull off the upset as 10-point underdogs.  Now they are overvalued due to that win, and this is a sandwich game in which they will probably not show up for considering they have their SEC opener against Texas A&M on deck next week.

While the end result was a good road win over TCU last week, I would argue that the Razorbacks were outplayed and shouldn't have won.  That's pretty obvious when you consider TCU outgained Arkansas 572-403 for the game, or by 169 total yards.

That win over TCU also helped the betting public forget about Arkansas' stinker in the opener, but I have not.  Arkansas only beat Louisiana Tech 21-20 at home as 21-point favorites in the opener.  The Razorbacks even needed a TD with 6:37 left in the fourth quarter to pull out that win.

The Razorbacks only gained 297 total yards of offense against Louisiana Tech.  They gained 403 against TCU, but that was with overtime included, and TCU had given up 41 points to South Dakota State the previous week.  I simply don't believe this Arkansas offense is explosive enough to warrant being a 31-point favorite this week, especially in this tough sandwich/letdown spot.

Texas State really impressed me with its 56-54 (OT) win at Ohio in the opener as 17-point underdogs.  That's the same Ohio team that went on the road and beat Kansas 37-21 last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Bobcats outgained the Jayhawks 359 to 21 total yards in the first half of that game.

Unlike Arkansas, Texas State is in a great spot here as it actually didn't play last week.  So it has had a full two weeks to prepare for Arkansas.  Also, the reason Texas State is such a desirable underdog to me this week is because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt in senior Tyler Jones.

Jones has made 21 starts in his career while completing 65% of his passes for 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns against 12 interceptions coming into the season.  Jones was brilliant against a very good Ohio defense in the opener, completing 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.  He also added another rushing score on the ground.  He can lead this Texas State offense on a few touchdown drives, which will be enough to cover the 31-point spread.

Texas State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.  Remember, Arkansas lost at home 16-12 to Toledo last year, and nearly lost to LA Tech this year.  Take Texas State Saturday.

15* Georgia/Missouri SEC No-Brainer on Missouri +6.5

The Missouri Tigers had one of the best defenses in the country last year in allowing just 16.2 points and 302 yards per game.  Former defensive coordinator Barry Odom is now the head coach, and this defense will prove to be one of the best in the SEC once again this season.

But the reason Missouri should be improved this year is because of the offense.  Sophomore QB Drew Lock got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and now its his offense in 2016.  So far, I would have to say that Lock is making the most of it.

Yes, Missouri lost 11-26 at West Virginia in the opener, but it left a lot of points on the field as it gained 462 total yards, which should have led to more points.  The Tigers then racked up 647 total yards in a 61-21 beat down of Eastern Michigan at home last week to really flash their potential.

Lock has been impressive, throwing for 730 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.  Four different receivers already have at least 100 receiving yards through two games, so he is not short on weapons.  This is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the country this season.

Georgia had to erase a double-digit deficit to beat North Carolina in the opener in what was essentially a home game as it was played in Atlanta.  Then, the Bulldogs nearly suffered the biggest upset of the season last week as they only beat FCS foe Nicholls State 26-24 despite being 52.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 50.5 points!

That effort against Nicholls State shows that Georgia has plenty of problems and should not be favored by nearly a TD on the road against Missouri this week.  This will be a tough atmosphere as it's a night game at Memorial Stadium, and the Tigers always seem to rise to the occasion in these spots.

While the Tigers know they have their QB of the future in Lock, the Bulldogs still don't know who their quarterback is going to be.  Freshman Jacob Eason has struggled thus far, and senior Greyson Lambert hasn't been much better.  They are going to have to make some plays in the passing game against Missouri to come away with a road win, and I just don't know if they can do it.

The reason the Bulldogs are going to have to make some plays in the passing game is because Missouri is great at stopping the run, and the Bulldogs rely heavily on Nick Chubb, making this a good matchup for the Tigers.  They gave up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry in 2014, and 133 per game and 3.3 per carry in 2015.  They have allowed 4.1 per carry thus far in 2016.

Missouri went into Athens last year and played Georgia very tough, only losing 6-9 as 15.5-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - after one or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-18 (73.5) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -147

The Baltimore Orioles got a huge momentum-building win last night in coming back from a 4-2 deficit to beat the Rays 5-4 with three runs in the final few innings.  They are fighting for their playoff lives right now and need every win, while the Rays have nothing to play for but pride.

Now ace Chris Tillman gets the ball for the Orioles.  Tillman is 16-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  He pitched a gem in his return from the disabled list on September 11, allowing one run in six innings of a 3-1 victory at Detroit.  Tillman is 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his last four starts against the Rays, giving up 8 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.

Matt Andriese is 6-6 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 16 starts for the Rays.  He is 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those came against the Orioles as he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings on September 5th.  Andriese is now 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles.

Tillman is 11-0 (+12.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.  The Orioles are 22-6 in Tillman's last 28 starts.  The Rays are 2-10 in Andriese's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Baltimore is 8-1 in the last nine home meetings.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +13.5

After seeing LSU in each of its first two games, its obvious that the Tigers came into the 2016 season as one of the most overrated teams in the country. I think a big part of that is because they have Leonard Fournette, but he simply cannot do it all as the offense is weak everywhere else.

LSU was outgained by 82 yards against Wisconsin in its 14-16 upset loss as 12.5-point favorites in the opener. Its offense was held to just 257 total yards. Brandon Harris continues to be a weak link as he went 12-of-21 passing for 131 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in the loss.

Even more concerning may have been the 34-13 home win over Jacksonville State last week as 28-point favorites. This game was a heck of a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Tigers only outgained the Gamecocks by three yards 371-368. That’s really concerning that the defense gave up 368 yards to an FCS opponent.

And now the Tigers have a QB controversy after starting Harris but going to Danny Etling in the second quarter. He went 6-of-14 for 100 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But Etling didn’t complete a pass in the second half and threw his pick on six attempts after intermission. It’s amazing that the Tigers still cannot find a quarterback, though they are expected to go with Etling to start Saturday.

There’s no question that Mississippi State’s 20-21 loss to South Alabama as 27.5-point favorites in the opener was one of the biggest upsets of the season. However, from seeing what the Bulldogs did to South Carolina last week, it’s clear that the loss was more of a fluke than anything.  And the South Alabama loss has them undervalued.

Indeed, Mississippi State beat South Carolina 27-14 at home as 7.5-point favorites. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs were up 24-0 at halftime before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple scores in garbage time. They outgained the Gamecocks 485-243 for the game, or by 242 total yards.

Unlike LSU, it's amazing the finds that head coach Dan Mullen has been able to make at quarterback. The loss of Dak Prescott is huge, but sophomore Nick Fitzgerald clearly has many of the same qualities. Fitzgerald went 19-of-29 passing for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against South Carolina. But he did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 195 yards on 17 carries. He only played seven snaps against South Alabama before getting the starting nod last week.  I believe the Bulldogs would have never lost that game had Fitzgerald played the whole game.

Both meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons have gone right down to the wire. Mississippi State won 34-29 at LSU as 7-point underdogs in 2014, and covered again as 3-point dogs last year in a 19-21 home loss. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 570-430 in 2014 and 378-337 in 2015.

Mississippi State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after paying a game at home over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games. The Tigers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Colorado/Michigan CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Colorado +19

The Colorado Buffaloes might be the most underrated team in the entire country this season.  They entered 2016 as the most experienced team in the Pac-12 with 18 starters and 63 lettermen back in the fourth year under head coach Mike MacIntyre.

It's bowl or bust this season for MacIntyre, and his team has really responded in the first two weeks.  Colorado beat Colorado State 44-7 on a neutral field in the opener, outgaining the Rams 578-225 for the game, or by 353 total yards.  It then beat Idaho State 56-7 at home after taking a 45-0 lead into halftime and calling off the dogs, outgaining the Bengals 597-96 for the game, or by 501 total yards.

Michigan has taken care of a couple cupcakes while opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season, which has it overvalued right now.  It beat Hawaii 63-3 before topping UCF 51-14 at home.  But while the Buffaloes have outgained their first two opponents by an average of 427 yards per game, Michigan has only outgained its two foes by 198 yards per game.  The Wolverines weren't as dominant as those two scores indicate.

While Colorado certainly won't be overlooking Michigan, I could see the Wolverines overlooking the Buffaloes and looking ahead to their Big Ten opener against Penn State next week.  I don't think there's as big of a difference between these teams as the line would indicate, and I certainly don't foresee Michigan winning by three touchdowns or more, which is what it would take for the Wolverines to cover the spread.

Colorado did go just 2-5 on the road last season, but its losses only came by 8.5 points per game away from Boulder.  The Buffaloes have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games the past two seasons by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been a bad-luck team.  With their experience and talent level this season, they are ready to turn the corner.

Michigan is 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wolverines are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Take Colorado Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UNLV +13

The Central Michigan Chippewas are in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in school history with a 30-27 road win at Oklahoma State last week.  Certainly, these players are going to be feeling good about themselves now and not give UNLV the attention it deserves.

UNLV has one of its best teams in recent memory in 2016.  It has 14 starters back this year after having just 10 starters back last season.  And while the Rebels went 3-9 last year, they were within a touchdown in the 4th quarter in nine of their 12 games, so they were better than their record would indicate.

After putting up 28.6 points and 405 yards per game last season offensively, this is now going to be one of the best offenses that UNLV has had in a long time.  They beat Jackson State 63-13 in the opener and racked up 503 total yards.

But I was more impressed with UNLV's 21-42 loss at UCLA last week as 27.5-point underdogs.  That was actually a 28-21 game entering the 4th quarter before the Bruins scored the final 14 points to put it away.  The fact that they can hang with UCLA for three-plus quarters on the road shows their potential.

Central Michigan is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by an average of 7.2 points per game in this spot.  The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  UNLV is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +6.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be catching nearly a touchdown against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this week.  This game is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, and I actually expect the Commodores to win outright because they are the better team.

Derek Mason is in his third season at Vanderbilt and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back.  The Commodores laid an egg in their opener by squandering a 10-0 lead to South Carolina and losing 13-10, but I believe that loss has them undervalued.

I jumped on Vanderbilt last week as only 2.5-point favorites over Middle Tennessee.  The Commodores did not disappoint, rolling to a 47-24 home victory over an underrated MTSU outfit.  They finally got their offense going, and their defense remains one of the best in the country.

Indeed, the Commodores gave up just 21.0 points per game last year and brought back seven starters from that team.  They have one of the best sets of linebackers in the entire SEC led by Zach Cunningham, who had 103 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss last season.

Having great linebackers is key against Georgia Tech and its triple-option offense.  Mason and Commodores relish a matchup like this of the hard-hitting variety.  They will be up to the task to slow down the triple-option this week.

Georgia Tech went 3-9 last season, and I don't believe it is much better at all in 2016.  It only beat Boston College 17-14 in the opener and only gained 238 yards offensively in that contest.  I wasn't all that impressed with the 35-10 win over Mercer, either.  The Yellow Jackets only outgained the Bears by 124 total yards in that game, giving up 320 yards defensively.

While Vanderbilt cannot afford to look ahead after that loss to South Carolina as it needs every win it can get to make a bowl game, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Georgia Tech is looking ahead to its showdown at home against No. 5 Clemson this coming Thursday.  Look ahead or not, I still believe the Commodores have the more talented team overall, and certainly the better defense.

Plays against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Vanderbilt is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Commodores are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are undervalued right now because of their 13-48 road loss to Washington in the opener.  But that game was closer than the final score would indicate.  The Scarlet Knights were only outgained 304-380 in that game, or by 76 total yards, and Washington is one of the best teams in the country.

I still believe Rutgers is going to be one of the more improved teams in the country as the season progresses.  They had 16 starters back for new head coach Chris Ash, who was the co-defensive coordinator under Urban Meyer the last two years.  Ash inherited a ton of talent.

Rutgers staked Howard to 14 points early last week, but then showed its potential by winning the rest of the game 52-0 for a 52-14 victory.  The Rutgers' defense limited Howard to five total yards in the second half and will build off of that performance this week.

New Mexico is overvalued because it finally made a bowl game last year.  But the Lobos clearly have some problems right now because they lost to an awful New Mexico State team 31-32 on the road as 11-point favorites last week.  They managed just 336 total yards in that loss.

Hurting New Mexico is the fact that it's without arguably its two best players right now.  RB Teriyon Gipson, who rushed for 848 yards and six touchdowns last year, is out with a concussion.  Senior middle linebacker Dakota Cox, who is the leader of the defense, is also out with a concussion.  Cox led the team in tackles (97) last year and had five sacks.  He was MWC Player of the Week with his performance against South Dakota in their opener.  Those two losses cannot be overstated.

The fact of the matter is that Rutgers is vastly more talented team in this matchup with New Mexico.  If the Scarlet Knights want to make a bowl game this year, they know they must take care of business this week against New Mexico.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 52-18 (74.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ohio +27

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a prime letdown spot today.  They are coming off their huge win over Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway last week, and now they have rival Florida on deck next week to open SEC play.

The Volunteers won't be able to help but look forward to that game against Florida.  They have lost 11 straight to the Gators, and there has been a ton of back-and-forth clashing between the teams through the media.  The Vols won't give Ohio the attention it deserves this week.

Ohio is certainly no pushover.  It went 8-5 last season and is clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  But the Bobcats come undervalued due to their 56-54 loss to Texas State in overtime in their opener.  They gained 630 total yards in that game and should have won.

But the Bobcats came back last week and played up to their potential, outgaining Kansas 359 to 21 yards in first half en route to a 37-21 road victory.  Their offense is now averaging 563 yards per game through two games, and they certainly have the firepower to keep up with Tennessee in this one.  QB Greg Windham has already thrown for 560 yards and five touchdowns this season, and they had two 100-yard rushers last week against Kansas.

Tennessee comes in overvalued because of its 45-24 win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Vols were actually outgained by the Hokies 330-400, or by 70 total yards.  But they took advantage of five fumbles lost by the Hokies to break the game open.

Remember, Tennessee needed overtime to beat Appalachian State at home in the opener 20-13.  Appalachian State missed an extra point short field goal in regulation.  Tennessee also fumbled the ball at the goal line in OT and was lucky to recover it in the end zone to get the win.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (OHIO U) - after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-14 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Ohio is 6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Frank Solich is 13-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of the Bobcats.  The Bobcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Ohio Saturday.

20* Baylor/Rice ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Rice +31.5

Rice hasn’t shown great on the road in its first two games with tough matchups against Western Kentucky and Army. After losing both contests and failing to cover the spread in each, I believe Rice is now undervalued and catching too many points here as 31.5-point dogs to Baylor.

But Western Kentucky was one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country last year, and it played Alabama reasonably tough last week.  Also, Army is one of the most improved teams in the country.  That was evident when it went on the road and beat Temple 28-13 as 14-point dogs in Week 1.

Rice will be looking forward to this game because it will be its first home and and it will be on the National TV stage with ESPN providing the television coverage. The Owls will show up, and when they do, they should be good enough to stay within 31.5 points of Baylor.  I still believe the Owls are improved this season with 16 starters back compared to only 9 last year.

The Bears clearly aren’t the same dominant team they have been the past few years. They failed to cover as 50-point favorites in a 55-7 win over Northwestern State, and also didn’t cover as 34.5-point favorites in a 40-13 home win over SMU last week.

The game against SMU was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Bears only outgained the Mustangs by 131 total yards in the game, 536-405. This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Bears blew it open in the second half.

Being tied at halftime against SMU at home is a sign that the Bears are vulnerable.  That's especially the case when SMU was missing starting QB Matt Davis in that game.  Backup QB Ben Hicks really hurt SMU by throwing three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

Yes, Baylor has gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Rice. However, only once during this stretch have they beaten Rice by more than 25 points. This is a much better Rice team than the one the Bears faced last year as the Owls have seven more starters back.

This is a much worse Bears team as they brought back just 10 starters this season and lost head coach Art Briles.  They had 18 starters back last year, so they have eight less starters back this year.  The Bears also have only one returning starters along their offensive and defensive lines, so they aren't very strong up front.

I think this will be a tougher test for Baylor in its first road game than most are thinking.  This is a young team, and that first road game is always tough.  I also think the Bears could be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week.

Rice is 72-44 ATS in its last 116 home games, including 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games as a home underdog. The Owls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -114

The Miami Marlins have won five of their last seven games to get back to .500 and withing four games of the final wild card spot in the National League.  After having yesterday off, the Marlins are re-charged and ready for the stretch run.  The Phillies did not have yesterday off as they lost 15-2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, which certainly was taxing on their bullpen.

Now they will go with Adam Morgan, who is 2-10 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in 18 starts this season while averaging 5.3 innings per start, so it's likely they'll have to use their bullpen early in this one as well.  Morgan is 0-6 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in nine home starts as well this season.

Tom Koehler has held his own for the Marlins this season, going 9-11 with a 3.97 ERA over 29 starts.  Koehler certainly enjoys facing the Phillies, going 4-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.  In four starts against the Phillies this season, Koehler is 2-1 with a minuscule 1.29 ERA while allowing only 4 earned runs in 28 innings.

The Marlins are 8-0 in Koehler's last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Miami is 4-0 in its last four road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Phillies are 2-9 in their last 11 home games.  Philadelphia is 1-7 in Morgan's last eight home starts.  Take the Marlins Friday.

15* Jets/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1

The New York Jets are the vastly superior team than the Buffalo Bills this season. They have the better offense and the better defense. They are also going to want revenge after losing both meetings to the Bills last year, and five straight in the series overall.

The Jets are a playoff-caliber team. They have a solid offense behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in the passing game. They added Matt Forte in the offseason, and he had a big game against the Bengals with 96 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards in his debut with the Jets last week.  The Jets lost that game 22-23 and don't want to fall to 0-2 after going 10-6 last year and barely missing the playoffs.

Buffalo’s offense clearly doesn’t look improved at all this year after a 7-13 loss at Baltimore. The Bills managed just 160 total yards and were outgained by 148 yards in the loss.

Making matters worse for the Bills is that star receiver Sammy Watkins is banged up. He continues to deal with discomfort in his surgically repaired foot and is questionable to play Thursday against the Jets. The Bills have one of the longest injury reports of any team right now with key contributors in DT Marcell Dareus, DE Dhaq Lawson, LB Reggie Ragland, LB Ik Enempkpali and LT Cordy Glenn out.

Plays against home teams (BUFFALO) – good passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

The Jets are 49-30 ATS in their last 79 division road games. New York is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in Week 2. The Jets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine vs. AFC East opponents. The Bills are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Jets Thursday.

20* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

I believe the Houston Cougars are being way over-hyped right now, which has them overvalued as 7.5-point favorites on the road this week against one of the top contenders in the American Athletic in Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 13-1 last season and have opened 2-0 this year with a win over Oklahoma already. While there’s no question they are a very good team, I would argue that they should not be ranked as high as No. 6, and they certainly aren’t one of the best 10 teams in the country.

Star QB Greg Ward Jr. is banged up right now with a shoulder injury and had to sit out last week against Lamar. He is expected to play this week, but he will still be feeling the effects of that injury. Also, star RB Duke Catalon is nursing an ankle injury that forced him out last week, and he may play as well but won’t be 100%.

Cincinnati may have been the best 7-6 team in the country last year. It outgained its opponents by 129 yards per game while averaging 538 per game on offense. That offense is loaded again, and the defense should be much improved with eight starters back.

The defense has played very well the first two weeks in limiting Tennessee-Martin and Purdue to a combined 27 points while forcing eight turnovers. The offense really got going against Purdue with 512 total yards with 262 on the ground and 250 through the air. That’s an improved Purdue team from the Big Ten, so a 38-20 road win over the Boilermakers is nothing to laugh about, especially considering the Bearcats were only 3-point favorites.

Cincinnati wants revenge on Houston after losing 30-33 on the road as 9-point underdogs last year. It outgained Houston 589-427 for the game, or by 162 total yards, and should have won. The Bearcats are still 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cougars.

Cincinnati has one of the best home-field advantages in college football. It is now 27-5 at home over the past five-plus seasons. Rarely will you see the Bearcats ever catching points at home because of this, especially not more than a touchdown like they are against the Cougars. The value is clearly with them in this game.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cincinnati is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games. The Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) – excellent passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 62% or better are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-17 (74.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -130

The Baltimore Orioles have won four of their last five games overall to pull within one game of the Boston Red Sox atop the AL East standings.  They are also trying to hang on to a wild card spot in the American League.

Yovani Gallardo has pitched much better at home than on the road this season.  He has gone 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in eight home starts.  Gallardo is 3-1 (5-1 money line) with a 3.55 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay as well.  The Orioles are 3-0 in Gallardo's three starts against the Rays this season.

Blake SNell is 5-8 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Rays.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start because he has a whopping 45 walks in 77 innings.  Snell has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.885 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Rays are 12-44 in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 0-4 in Snell's last four road starts.  The Orioles are 39-15 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Baltimore is 8-1 in Gallardo's last nine starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 0-7 in their last seven meetings in Baltimore.  Roll with the Orioles Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -138

The Seattle Mariners have won seven straight games to get to 77-68 on the season and within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I look for them to continue rolling against the Angels, who have lost six of their last seven and have nothing to play for.

Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma is having a solid season at 15-11 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 29 starts.  Iwakuma has always fared well against the Angels, going 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.

Jhoulys Chacin has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues this season.  He's 4-8 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in 18 starts, including 1-1 with an 8.48 ERA and 2.142 WHIP in his last three.  Chacin is 0-0 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against Seattle.

Los Angeles is 0-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 8 or more runs over the last two seasons.  Seattle has won the first two meetings of this series by finals of 8-1 and 8-0.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -140

The Boston Red Sox are on a mission to win the AL East.  They have won five of their last six games while outscoring the opposition 50-19 in the process, or by a combined 31 runs.  Their offense is lighting it up right now and should continue to do so tonight against the Orioles.

Dylan Bundy was impressive in his first few starts this season, but big league hitting has caught up to him.  Bundy is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in five road starts.  Bundy gave up 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 11 base runners over 4 1/3 innings in a 1-8 loss to the Red Sox on August 17 in his only career start against them.

Drew Pomeranz is having a phenomenal season in his time between Boston and San Diego.  He has gone 10-11 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.160 WHIP over 27 starts with 174 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings.  The Orioles are only hitting .242 and scoring 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Orioles are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Baltimore is 1-6 in its last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Red Sox are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Boston is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -115

The Colorado Rockies have a massive advantage on the mound today over the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have lost six straight coming in and appear to have quit.  They have lost five of those six games by multiple runs.

Tyler Anderson is quietly having an awesome season in Colorado.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his last three.

Shelby Miller has been a huge disappointment in Arizona, going 2-11 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.744 WHIP in 16 starts, including 0-7 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in eight home starts.  Miller is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in eight career starts against Colorado.  In three starts against the Rockies this season, Miller has given up 16 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 25-46 in all home games this season, including 8-24 (-14.1 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Miller is 0-12 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Miller's last seven home starts.  Take the Rockies Monday.

20* Steelers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +2.5

The Washington Redskins are showing great value today as home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  After winning the NFC East and making the playoffs last year, the Redskins remain underrated heading into 2016.

The Redskins really took care of business at home last season.  They went 6-3, which includes their loss to the Packers at home in the playoffs.  They outscored opponents by 4.5 points per game at home and outgained them by nearly 46 yards per game.

Pittsburgh didn't exactly light it up on the road last season.  It went 5-5 away from home while outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per game.  There is a lot of hype on the Steelers coming into 2016 as they are a popular Super Bowl pick.  That's why we'll fade them in Week 1 here.

I also like the fact that the Steelers are far from full strength.  They are without Le'Veon Bell for the first three games due to suspension.  WR Martavis Bryant is out for the season, and WR Markus Wheaton isn't expected to play due to a shoulder injury.  New TE Ladarius Green is on the PUP as well.  That leaves Ben Roethlisberger missing three important weapons on offense.

The weakness of the Steelers is their secondary, which gave up 63.4% completions and 264 yards per game last season.  That makes this a good matchup for the Redskins, who completed 69.1% of their passes for 257 yards per game last season.  Kirk Cousins is the real deal and has a plethora of weapons around him.

Mike Tomlin is 5-13 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

15* Giants/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas PK

This line opened as Cowboys -4 and has already moved at least four points to a pick ’em and +1 in some places. The move solely has to do with Tony Romo’s injury, but I’m not buying that he’s worth that many more points than Dak Prescott.

After all, there may have not been another player more important to his team in the entire country than Prescott in his time at Mississippi State. Just look at the Bulldogs’ result from Week 1 as they were upset at home by South Alabama.

And, you have to take notice of how dominant Prescott was in the preseason. He finished 39 of 50 passing (78.0 percent) for 454 yards with five touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions. After that performance, his teammates certainly believe in him.

The good news for Prescott is he won’t have to do it all. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the game and an electric rookie running back in Ezekiel Elliott, who is primed for a huge year. Dez Bryant is also back healthy and says he will be unstoppable this season after missing most of last year due to injury.

I know this Dallas defense leaves a lot to be desired, but it actually held its own last season in allowing 23.4 points and 347.9 yards per game. There are some concerning suspensions, but Rod Marinelli has proven he can make the most out of the least amount of talent.

The Giants, on the other hand, were terrible defensively last season in giving up 27.6 points and 420.6 yards per game. That’s why they spent more money than any other team in the league on defense in free agency. But as we’ve seen time and time again, big spending sprees on free agents on defense don’t normally work out.

Dallas has certainly had New York’s number in recent years. Indeed, the Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with the Giants. The only loss was a 20-27 road loss last season in which the Cowboys actually outgained the Giants 460-289 and should have won. They outgained New York a combined 896-577 in their two meetings last year.

Plays on underdogs or pick (DALLAS) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games are 61-30 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.  Take the Cowboys Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -130

The New York Mets had their six-game winning streak come to an end in extra innings yesterday.  But I look for them to get right back on the winning track Sunday against the lowly Atlanta Braves.

Seth Lugo will get the start today and he's been brilliant, going 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in four starts, including 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three.

Lugo will be opposed by Williams Perez, who is 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.314 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Perez is 0-1 with a 10.95 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Mets are 7-1 in their last eight Sunday games.  New York is 6-1 in its last seven games overall.  The Braves are 14-39 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Atlanta is 20-44 in its last 64 during game 3 of a series.  New York is 10-3 in its last 13 meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets were a playoff-caliber team last season in the first year under head coach Todd Bowles.  Most years, a 10-6 record would get you into the postseason.  It wasn't enough for the Jets, and they'll open 2016 hungry to start their climb to the playoffs.

The Jets were one of the best teams in the league statistically last season.  They put up 24.2 points and 370.3 yards per game on offense, and gave up only 19.6 points and 318.6 yards per game on defense.  They essentially outscored opponents by 6 points per game and outgained them by 52 yards per game.

New York had one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL last year as well.  It went 6-2 at home and scored 27.6 points per game while gaining 377.0 yards per game.  It only gave up 18.4 points and 300.2 yards per game, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points per game and outgaining them by 77 yards per game.

The Jets pretty much have all of their important pieces back from last season.  They even added a veteran running back in Matt Forte, who continues to get it done in spite of his game.  It was also nice that the Jets were able to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick early enough to get him ready.  He threw for 3,905 yards and a franchise-record 31 touchdowns last season.

Cincinnati is a solid perennial playoff team.  However, I believe the Bengals will not be nearly as good in 2016.  They lost a lot of key pieces from last year.  They have some huge injuries and suspensions they are dealing with to open 2016.

Tyler Eiferft, who caught 13 touchdown passes from the TE position, is out with an ankle injury to start the season.  Vontaze Burfict, their leading tackler and most important player on defense, is missing the first three games of the season due to suspension.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to New York.  The home team has gone 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Jets are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -1.5

The New Orleans Saints are flying under the radar heading into the 2016 season.  They have disappointed the last few years, so they aren't getting a lot of respect from the betting public like they used to.

The Oakland Raiders are the betting public's new favorite team it looks like.  Sure, this is a young team with potential, but they went just 7-9 last year and probably won't do a whole lot better than that in 2016.  I'm not ready to buy on them yet until they show it.

The Saints still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and it is worth more than it is getting credit for in Week 1.  Essentially, the Saints just have to win this game to cover.  In the past few seasons, you don't get the Saints at under a field goal at home, and often times they would be double-digit favorites even.  The value is clearly with the Saints in this one.

Oakland is 39-76 ATS in its last 115 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Raiders are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games with a total of 49.5 or more.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Oakland.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

15* UNC/Illinois ACC vs. Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +7.5

For starters, the Fighting Illini are going to want revenge from their 14-48 loss at North Carolina last season. Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere as fans in Champaign are excited after their 52-3 victory over Murray State last week.

Illinois was better than its 5-7 record would indicate last season. It went through turmoil at the head coach position, but still nearly made a bowl game. Also, five of the seven losses came by 11 points or less, so that game against UNC was one of only two in which the Illini weren’t competitive last year.

The Fighting Illini have new life under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith, who was with the Bears for nine years and the Buccaneers for two. He inherited some nice talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball where seven starters returned.

The key was bringing back one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Wes Lunt, the former Oklahoma State transfer. This offense has really clicked with him at QB. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards and 14 touchdowns against six interceptions last year. He welcomed backed two of his top three receivers this year, and leading rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (723 yards, 6 TD).

The offense really looked good against Murray State in the 52-3 win. The Fighting Illini racked up 515 total yards, including 226 passing and three touchdowns from Lunt. The defense was equally impressive under new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, a five-time Pro Bowler. The Illini held Murray State to just 165 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

I believe UNC is one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 11-3 last year. It lost its most important player in QB Marquise Williams, and the defense is still terrible, just as it has been ever since Larry Fedora took over as head coach.

That was evident in the 24-33 loss to Georgia last week. UNC gave up 474 total yards to the Bulldogs and managed only 315 yards on offense, getting outgained by 159 yards for the game. New QB Mitch Trubisky struggled, completing just 24-of-40 passes for 156 yards with zero touchdowns.

But the real problem was stopping the run as the Tar Heels gave up 289 yards and 5.6 per carry to the Bulldogs. They will get shredded again on the ground by a Fighting Illini team that rushed for 287 yards and 7.2 per carry against Murray State. It’s also worth noting the Illini held the Racers to -10 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is impressive against any opponent.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) – in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 140-79 (63.9%) ATS since 1992.

Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina. Fedora is also 2-10 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Tar Heels. UNC is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

20* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +15.5

Certainly, a 20-25 home loss to FCS opponent Northern Iowa is concerning for Iowa State. The Cyclones clearly didn’t play their best game, and that wasn’t the way that former Toledo coach Matt Campbell wanted to start his tenure in Ames.

But I’m not going to look too much into that result. Iowa State always played Iowa tough, and it will be even more determined this week after that loss. Not to mention, Northern Iowa is one of the best FCS teams in the country as it was ranked No. 3 coming into the season.

Plus, Iowa has just as much reason to be concerned even though it beat Miami (Ohio) 45-21 last week. The Redhawks basically gave that game away by committing three turnovers that set the Hawkeyes up with great scoring opportunities.

In fact, Iowa was actually outgained by Miami (Ohio) by 20 yards. The defense gave up 424 total yards and 25 first downs to the Redhawks, while Iowa only managed 404 total yards and 17 first downs. That was a Miami team that went a combined 5-31 over the past three seasons.

I believe Iowa remains overvalued early in the season after going 12-0 in the regular season last year.  It failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites against Miami in the opener.  That game was clearly closer than the final score would indicate when you look at the stats.  At the same time, Iowa State is undervalued off a 3-9 season and a loss to UNI in its opener.  It’s the perfect storm value-wise.

I still think Iowa State is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Campbell had 13 starters back and this team had a great offseason. The offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions in QB Joel Lanning, RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The defense had eight starters back this year and will be improved.

The key here is that Iowa State always plays Iowa tough. In fact, Iowa State is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. All five meetings were decided by 14 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer, so getting 15 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The road team has won each of the last four meetings outright while going 4-0 ATS.

Plays on a road team (IOWA ST) – after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite. The Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -124

The New York Mets are on a tear right now as they have won six straight to get into the wild card if the season were to end today.  I look for them to keep rolling against the hapless Atlanta Braves at a generous price of only -124 road favorites.

Bartolo Colon remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 13-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 28 starts this season, 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts.  Colon has owned the Braves, going 9-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.  He has given up only one earned run in 15 innings in two starts against the Braves in 2016.

John Gant has held his own in limited action this season with a 1-2 record and a 3.80 ERA over five starts.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in his last three starts.  Gant is also 0-1 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.738 WHIP in two home starts this season.

Colon is 13-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Mets are 20-8 in Colon's last 28 starts vs. NL East foes.  The Braves are 22-45 in their last 67 home games.  Atlanta is 0-5 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 10-2 in its last 12 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the Mets Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt's 13-10 loss to South Carolina in its opener has it undervalued heading into this home showdown with Conference-USA foe Middle Tennessee State.  This is a very short number for an SEC team at home against a C-USA opponent.

I still believe Vanderbilt is going to be much better in 2016.  Derek Mason is in Year 3 and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back while losing only 16 letter winners.

The Commodores were better than their 4-8 record would indicate last year as they took both Ole Miss and Florida down to the wire on the road.  Their defense gave up only 21.0 points per game last year and returned seven starters from that unit.

The offense will be improved, too, even after that poor performance against South Carolina in which they blew a 10-0 lead after it looked like they were going to roll early.  Ralph Webb rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year and should get on track this week.  Webb went for 97 yards against South Carolina last week.

Middle Tennessee went 7-6 last year and has just 12 starters and 40 lettermen back while losing 30 letter winners.  The Blue Raiders are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team from Conference-USA, but they're a big step down in competition from South Carolina.

Yes, Middle Tennessee is coming off a 55-0 shutout victory over Alabama A&M, but it was a 47.5-point favorite in that game.  That's not as impressive as it looks.  The step up in competition this week will be felt.

Last year, Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Middle Tennessee 17-13 as 2-point underdogs.  It outgained the Blue Raiders 414-320 for the game, or by 94 total yards.  The Commodores rushed for 237 yards in that contest and will have their way on the ground again.

Middle Tennessee only has five starters back on defense and loses each of its top four tacklers from last year.  Head coach Rick Stockstill clearly doesn't make defending the run a priority.  The Blue Raiders have given up at least 183 rushing yards per game in five of the past six seasons.

Vanderbilt knows it is better than it showed against South Carolina and will be highly motivated to prove it at home Saturday.  This line is dropping because bettors don't like what they saw from Vanderbilt last week, and they are overreacting to MTSU's win over Alabama A&M.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1992.


The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. C-USA opponents.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC foes.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke -5

Wake Forest was supposed to be better entering Year 3 under Dave Clawson.  Well, that's clearly not the case after it only beat Tulane 7-3 at home as 14-point favorites.

That's really bad when you consider that Tulane went 3-9 last year and has a first-year head coach this season.  This is a Tulane team that gave up 36.3 points per game last year.

Wake had a terrible offense last year in scoring just 17.4 points per game.  It's terrible once again as the Demon Deacons only managed 7 points and 175 total yards against Tulane.  The Green Wave actually outgained them by 105 yards for the game.

Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country year in and year out under David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils have gone a combined 28-13 over the past three-plus years.

The Blue Devils got off to a great start to their 2016 season by beating NC Central 49-6 and outgaining them by 423 yards in the process, taking care of business just as they were expected to, and unlike Wake Forest.

Duke has had Wake Forest's number in recent year.  It has won four straight meetings, including a 41-21 victory in its lone home meeting.  All four wins came by 6 points or more.  Duke is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Demon Deacons.  The Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.

Only having to lay 5 points on the clearly superior team at home is a gift from oddsmakers.  Wake has gone 3-9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't appear to be getting much better after that woeful performance against Tulane last week.  Roll with Duke Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +17

There’s no question that a home loss to Southern Miss is a little concerning for Kentucky fans, but considering they were only 3.5-point favorites, it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker.

This was a Southern Miss team that returned 13 starters and 55 lettermen from a team that went 9-5 and made the Conference USA Championship Game. That includes sensational QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year.

And the Wildcats were dominating this game with a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to play in the first half. They completely fell apart from that point-forward, getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way by the Golden Eagles.

I still come away with some positives as Kentucky’s offense really got going behind talented sophomore Drew Barker, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. This is an offense that returned nine starters from last year, and Barker wasn’t even one of them. This offense can keep them in the game against Florida.

Yes, Kentucky’s defense left a lot to be desired, but the good news is that its up against a Florida team that once again has no offense in 2016. I’m way more concerned with Florida’s lackluster 24-7 opening win against UMass as 34.5-point favorites than Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss.

Florida is a team I am way down on this year. It got very lucky to win the SEC East last year with so many close wins. Five of its 10 wins came by a touchdown or less, including a 31-24 home win over ECU, a fluke 28-27 home win over Tennessee, an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 (OT) win at home against Florida Atlantic.

In fact, the Gators only outgained teams last year by 24 yards per game and outscored them by 4.9 points per game.  There's no way they should have won 10 games with those numbers.  The Gators’ true colors showed against the big boys in their final three games with a 25-point loss to Florida State, a 14-point loss to Alabama, and a 34-point loss to Michigan in the bowl game.

Florida’s offense managed just 334 yards per game and 23.2 points per game last season. That offense looked shaky in the 24-7 win over UMass again. The Gators only managed 363 total yards, including 107 rushing and 3.7 per carry.

The Gators were only leading UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter before winning the 4th 14-0 to pull away. This was a UMass team that went just 3-9 with 19 starters back last year, and it only returned 10 starters this year. It’s also a team that gave up 31.4 points and 448 yards per game to opponents last year.

Kentucky will be highly motivated to end its 29-game losing streak to Florida; the longest active streak in the country. It has come close each of the last two years. It lost 30-36 (OT) at Florida as 17.5-point dogs in 2014, and 9-14 at home as 3.5-point dogs last year. The Wildcats weren’t overmatched in either game, and they certainly won’t be overmatched enough to lose by more than 17 points in this 2016 meeting.

Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the past three seasons. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks come into the 2016 season way undervalued after going 0-12 last year.  I have no doubt they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country with 16 starters back after having only six starters back in David Beaty's first season in 2015.

Beaty has done all the right things in Lawrence this offseason to improve this team.  Their strength training, which is well documented, will pay huge dividends.  They are bigger, stronger and faster this season, and several players who were forced into action as underclassmen last year are now a year older.

The improvements couldn't have shown more than they did in a 55-6 victory over Rhode Island in their opener.  Their three quarterbacks combined for six touchdown passes as they racked up 570 yards of total offense.  Their defense limited Rhode Island to just 219 total yards and forced three turnovers, outgaining them by 351 yards.

Ohio is a solid team under Frank Solich, but a 54-56 (OT) loss in their opener at home to Texas State as 17-point favorites is certainly concerning for the Bobcats.  They gave up 546 total yards in the loss, including 440 passing.  Kansas should have its way through the air against the Bobcats as well.

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games vs. MAC opponents.  The Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 6 points or fewer in its previous game.

The Jayhawks are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games vs. non-conference opponents.  With a small number of only 3, basically all they have to do is win this game to cover the spread.  It's time to hop on the Jayhawks' bandwagon now because in a few weeks bettors are going to realize this team is no longer a pushover.  Take Kansas Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a team I'm very high on this season.  They are in Year 3 under James Franklin, and he clearly has his best team yet.  He came into 2016 with 14 starters back and only 18 lettermen lost.

But the Nittany Lions are undervalued in 2016 because they are coming off back-to-back disappointing 7-6 seasons.  But now Franklin has the QB he recruited in Trace McSorley, and not the one that was handed to him in Christian Hackenberg, who wasn't a fit for the offense he prefers to run.

McSorley is a dual-threat guy who flashed that talent in a 33-13 win over Penn State in the opener.  He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 47 yards.  The offense has nine starters back around him, so he doesn't have to do it all.  That includes one of the best RB's in the country in Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,076 yards and 7 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry last year.  Barkley rushed for 105 yards and a TD in the opener.

Penn State has had an elite defense every year under Franklin, giving up 18.6 points and 279 yards per game in 2014, and 21.8 points and 324 yards per game in 2015.  They held Kent State to 279 total yards and forced three turnovers in the opener.  Now the offense will finally catch up to the defense this season.

While I like Pitt and its direction, I don't believe it should be favored against a top-tier Big Ten opponent.  I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, so getting 6 points is an added bonus and a ton of value in a game that could easily go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

Pitt played in a ton of close games last season en route to going 8-5 in Pat Narduzzi's first season.  In fact, a whopping eight of those 13 games were decided by a TD or less.  These teams play similar styles as they like to run the ball and play good defense, which will lead to a close game.

Pitt wasn't impressive at all in its 28-7 win over FCS foe Villanova as 28-point favorites in the opener.  It only managed 261 yards of total offense while outgaining Villanova by only 89 yards.  The Panthers continue to be held back at the QB position as Nathan Peterman threw for only 175 yards.  James Connor returned from injury after missing most of last year and only rushed for 53 yards on 17 carries.  He may only be a shell of his former self this season.

Plays against a home team (PITTSBURGH) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1992.

Franklin is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are winning 38.9 to 13.4 on average, or by 25.5 points per game.  This guy is the real deal and will do big things at Penn State sooner rather than later.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+101)

After back-to-back losses, the St. Louis Cardinals are now actually the first team out in the NL wild card race.  They are vying with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets for the two spots.  They are just 1/2 game back of the Mets for the 2nd spot, so they'll be highly motivated tonight.

Carlos Martinez has been the unquestioned ace of St. Louis' staff.  He is 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 26 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three.  Martinez has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Jimmy Nelson is 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 28 starts for the Brewers, including 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Nelson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-5 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Milwaukee is 1-16 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.  It is losing by 2.6 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

15* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Syracuse +15

The Syracuse Orange are a team on the rise under first-year head coach Dino Babers. He led Bowling Green to an 18-9 record in his two years there and the MAC title last year. We all saw how poor Bowling Green looked in a 10-77 loss to Ohio State in their first game without him.

Babers stepped into a great situation at Syracuse with 16 returning starters. This is a team that lost only 17 lettermen from a year ago and will be much more competitive in ACC play after a down 4-8 season last year.

Babers brings a great offensive mind and calls his own plays. This offense racked up 554 total yards in a 33-7 win over Colgate in the opener. Sophomore QB Eric Dungey was brilliant, completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Eight starters are back on offense this year.

The defense was equally impressive in allowing just 143 total yards and 11 first downs to Colgate. This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the country this season with eight starters and each of the top seven tacklers back from a year ago.

I think Louisville comes in overvalued here as more than a two-touchdown road favorite because of its emphatic 70-14 win over Charlotte last week. Well, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the FBS as it recently just joined the FBS. The 49ers went 2-10 last year in their first season as members of the FBS and got outscored by 18.8 points per game.

I really think this is a tough spot for Louisville, too. It will be looking ahead to its showdown against Florida State next week, which will determine if the Cardinals have a shot in the stacked ACC Atlantic Division. I don’t believe the Cardinals will give the Orange their full attention as a result.

Syracuse is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off a win by 17 points or more. The Orange are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They went 3-3 SU at home last year with all three losses coming to ranked teams in LSU, Pitt & Clemson by 10 points or less.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-87 (63.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Orange should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals tonight.  Take Syracuse Friday.

20* Panthers/Broncos 2016 NFL Season Opener on Denver +3

Rarely will you ever find a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog at home in the regular season opener the next season. The last time it happened the Patriots won outright as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 14-2 SU & 10-4-2 ATS during Week 1 of the NFL regular season since 2000.  The Super Bowl runner-up is 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS in Week 1 the following season since 2000.

I believe the value is with the Broncos at home here. I know Peyton Manning is gone, but the Broncos won in spite of him last year. They still have an elite defense led by Von Miller and company and will ride that defense once again this season. Trevor Siemian won’t be that much of a downgrade from Manning.

While Denver continues to lack respect from oddsmakers, Carolina comes into 2016 overvalued due to its 15-1 season last year. But this team got several good breaks in close games last year and won’t be going 15-1 again.

The Broncos have had a huge home-field advantage over the last several years and went 8-2 at home last season. They held opponents to 18.2 points and 271.1 yards per game at home last year.

The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games dating back to last season. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The Broncos are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -149

The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to fend off several teams in the NL Wild Card race.  They are currently at 73-65, battling the 74-65 Giants and the 74-66 Mets for one of the two Wild Card spots.  It's safe to say they will be motivated tonight in Game 1 against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are coming off a rare series win against the Chicago Cubs at home, which puts them in prime letdown position here.  Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Jaime Garcia has been at his best at home this season, posting a 3.87 ERA and 1.151 WHIP over 15 starts.  Garcia owns the Brewers, going 11-6 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 21 career starts against them.  He has given up just 4 earned runs over 30 innings for a minuscule 1.20 ERA in his last four starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 16-42 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 2-9 in its last 11 during game 1 of a series.  The Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series.  St. Louis is 115-56 in its last 171 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 22-51 in the last 73 meetings.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -130

I'm back on the Kansas City Royals today as they continue to be a huge money-maker for me down the stretch.  This team simply doesn't have any quit.  With a 21-8 record in their last 29 games, the Royals are on the verge of making the playoffs.

I'll gladly fade the Minnesota Twins, who are just 5-22 in their last 27 games overall.  I'll also fade Kyle Gibson, who is 5-9 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 20 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.87 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three.  Gibson has given up 9 earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Royals for a 6.23 ERA as well.

Danny Duffy has been the clear ace of Kansas City's starting staff this season.  He is 11-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 21 starts, including 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in nine road starts.  Duffy has owned the Twins, going 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 career starts against them.

In fact, the Royals are 9-1 in Duffy's 10 career starts against Minnesota.  Duffy is 12-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kansas City is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  The Royals are 7-0 in Duffys last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +112

The Kansas City Royals are showing good value today as underdogs to the lowly Minnesota Twins.  The Royals are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall and are making a serious push to make the playoffs.  The Twins are just 5-21 in their last 26 games overall.

Dillon Gee has really stepped his game up of late, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those was against Minnesota on August 18 as he pitched 7 innings while allowing only one earned run in an 8-1 Kansas City victory.

Ervin Santana is having a decent year for the Twins at 7-10 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.254 WHIP over 25 starts.  However, he has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in his last three starts.  Santana is 5-9 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 19 career starts against Kansas City as well.

The Royals are 41-19 in their last 60 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 9-2 in its last 11 road games.  The Twins are 17-44 in their last 61 vs. AL Central foes.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 8-18 in Santana's last 26 starts.  The Twins are 0-6 in Santana's last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State -4.5

Despite bringing back just 11 starters last year, the Seminoles still managed to win at least 10 games for the fourth straight season.  Now they are loaded with 17 starters back in 2016 in what will be one of Jimbo Fisher's best teams yet.

Eleven starters return on offense in all.  Every player that started last year is expected to start again except for at quarterback, where freshman Deondre Francois has played his way into the starting role for the opener.  This kid is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the country, and I'm expecting a coming out party similar to that of Jameis Winston against Pittsburgh a few years back.

Francois won't have to do too much considering the talent is loaded around him.  He can give the ball to Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry last year.  Almost every receiver who caught a pass last year is back, led by Travis Rudolph, who caught 59 balls for 916 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Seminoles have one of the best offensive lines in the country as well.

Defensively, Florida State gave up just 17.5 points and 337 yards per game last year.  They do only have six returning starters on defense, but the replacements are some of the top recruits in the country.  Fisher has always had a stout defense as the Seminoles have allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five of his first season seasons.  That will be the case again.

But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss had a magical 10-3 season last year with 16 returning starters and a plethora of NFL talent.  But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.  While it's not a full-blown rebuilding year, there's no question that the Rebels will take a couple steps back in 2016.

While this game will technically be played on a neutral field, there's no question the Seminoles will have more fans there as it's played in Orlando.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays against any Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida State Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -127

The Kansas City Royals have gone 19-8 in their last 27 games overall.  Each of their last four losses have come by exactly one run, so they have been very close to perfection.  They'll be looking to sweep the Twins on the road in this series and get back to the postseason.

Ian Kennedy is pitching great right now.  He is 9-9 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 27 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kennedy is 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA in five career starts against Minnesota.  He pitched 8 shutout innings in a 10-0 victory on August 20 in his last start against them.

Jose Berrios has been a huge disappointment for the Twins.  He is 2-4 with a 9.24 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in nine starts, allowing eight homers and 38 earned runs in 37 innings already.  Berrios faced the Royals on August 19, giving up 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 4-5 loss.

The Royals are 40-19 in their last 59 vs. American League Central.  Kansas City is 4-1 in Kennedy's last five starts.  The Twins are 0-4 in Berrios' last four starts.  Minnesota is 6-20 in its last 26 games overall.  Bet the Royals Monday.

15* Notre Dame/Texas ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5

I’m huge on Texas this year and believe it will compete for the Big 12 Championship. I love third-year head coaches like Charlie Strong, especially in situations like these. He didn’t have the players he wanted his first two seasons, but now he has mostly his players in place to execute his schemes in Year 3.

In fact, Strong welcomes back 15 starters and 52 lettermen this year, making this his most experienced team yet in Austin. The key will be improvement on offense, which won’t be a problem with new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who guided Tulsa’s offense to over 500 yards of offense per game last year.

Tyrone Swoopes and stud freshman Shane Buechele are expected to share snaps this game. They will run Gilbert’s veer and shoot system, which is going to be completely different than what Notre Dame was up against last year. The change in scheme will cause some problems for Notre Dame’s defense as the Longhorns have the element of surprise working in their favor.

Strong should have his best defense yet at Texas with eight starters and seven of the top nine tacklers back from last year. The Longhorns are absolutely loaded with talent on this side of the ball, and several of the freshmen who played big minutes last year are now sophomores and will be improved greatly.

Many expect Notre Dame to compete for a national title this year, but I’m not seeing it. I see this as more of a rebuilding year for head coach Brian Kelly and company. That’s because the Fighting Irish return only four starters. They lose four of their top five receivers on offense, three starters along the offensive line, and six of their top eight tacklers on defense.

There’s no question that Texas has been working extra hard all offseason to try and avenge its ugly 3-38 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2015 season. The Longhorns will want this one badly, and now I would argue that they are actually the better team. They have 15 starters back compared to nine for Notre Dame, while last year they only had 11 starters back compared to 16 for the Fighting Irish.

This line has been bet down from 4.5 to 3 in a lot of places for good reason. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) – with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take Texas Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -110

The Kansas City Royals are making a serious push to make the postseason.  They have gone 19-7 in their last 26 games overall and are finishing up a series against the Detroit Tigers Sunday, who they trail by three games and are one of the teams they are chasing down.

Edinson Volquez has been great at home since he joined the Royals.  He is 6-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  The Royals are 22-9 in Volquez's last 31 home starts.

Daniel Norris is getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.  The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and I expect the Royals to get into the Tigers' bullpen early in this one.

Kansas City is 49-24 in its last 73 home games.  The Royals are 40-18 in their last 58 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 9-1 in its last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in Norris' last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Volquez is 13-2 (+11.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -111

After three straight one-run losses, the Kansas City Royals are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a much-needed victory as they chase down the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League.

The Royals worked too hard to get in position to make the playoffs to quit now.  They went 18-4 over a 22-game stretch before their three straight heartbreaking losses.  Yordano Ventura is here to save the day and get them back on track.

Ventura has gone 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last five starts, giving up just 8 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings.  He is 19-8 with a 2.98 ERA in 40 career starts after the All-Star Break.  Ventura is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts this year against the Tigers.  He has never lost to Detroit, going 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 appearances.

Michael Fulmer has really struggled in his last two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners over 10 2/3 innings while striking out just 5 batters.  The young rookie may be getting worn out this late in the season.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3

I believe the Georgia Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

I also like the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs as it's played in Atlanta and not even close to a neutral field.  Plus, Chubb and the Georgia rushing attack should have their way all game.  UNC surrendered 247 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry last year.  In its final three games, it gave up 308 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, 319 to Clemson and a ridiculous 645 to Baylor.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.  Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin +10

I was impressed with Paul Chryst in his first season in Madison. He took a team that returned just 11 starters and won 10 games. Two losses came by a combined 10 points, and the other was against eventual national champion Alabama in the season opener.

Now Chryst has 12 starters and 51 lettermen back in 2016, and these players are familiar with his systems. Senior RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy last year, otherwise the story may have been different in the Big Ten West. Clement is now healthy and ready to carry the load offensively as the Badgers get back to ground-and-pound after a sub-par season on the ground last year.

I really don’t think the Badgers are going to miss QB Joel Stave that much. After all, he threw just 11 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season. Fifth-year senior Bart Houston won the job in camp and should be able to surpass Stave’s mediocre numbers this season. But the key on offense is having four returning starters and 62 career starts along the offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin gave up just 13.7 points and 269 yards per game last season. Now they have six starters and four of their top six tacklers back from last year. They are very strong up front with five starters back among their front seven.

That’s key because the Badgers only gave up 95 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry last season. Since LSU lacks a passing game as Brandon Harris has disappointed and will start again, it’s going to be all Leonard Fournette offensively for the Tigers. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Badgers, who will rise to the occasion and hold Fournette in check.

This is essentially a home game for the Badgers as it will be held in their home state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. We saw two years ago Wisconsin hold a 24-13 lead over LSU in Houston at the end of the 3rd quarter, only to get outscored 15-0 in the final period and lose 28-24. I look for this meeting to go right down to the wire as well, thus getting 10 points is a value, especially with the location of the game and the favorable matchup.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

20* UCLA/Texas A&M CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies failed to meet expectations last year because their offense was the worst of the Sumlin era. They only put up 27.8 points per game after averaging 41.3 points per game in his first three years on the job. But you can’t hold a Sumlin offense down for long.

The problem last year was at quarterback as both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray struggled. Both transferred in the offseason, paving the way for former Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over the job in 2016. He made 15 career starts with the Sooners and threw for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards and 5.6 per carry. He’ll be a big upgrade at the position.

Also helping out Knight is the fact that he has arguably the best set of receivers in the country. Each of the top five receivers are back from last year. Leading the way are Christian Kirk (80 receptions, 1,009 yards, 7 TD last year), Josh Reynolds (51, 907, 5 TD), Ricky Seals-Jones (45, 560, 4 TD) and Speedy Noil (21, 226, 2 TD). Noil will miss this game due to suspension, but that’s not a big loss.

The sad part about last season is that the Aggies wasted their best defense of the Sumlin era. John Chavis was one of the most underrated coordinator hires in the country last season, and he helped guide the Aggies into giving up just 22.0 points and 380 yards per game.

Now the Aggies return seven starters and seven of the top eight tacklers on D, making this one of the best stop units in the SEC. They have the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett (12.5 sacks last year) and Daeshon Hall (7 sacks), who will be key in this game in getting after Josh Rosen and UCLA’s passing attack.

While there’s no denying that Rosen is one of the best QB’s in the country, I am concerned about the lack of experience around him as the Bruins return just four starters on offense. They lose four of their top five receivers from last year and leading rusher Paul Perkins (1,343 yards, 14 TD), who did everything for this team.

Sumlin certainly knows how to get his teams ready for the season. The Aggies have gone 5-0 to start each of the last two seasons. They beat South Carolina 52-28 on the road in their opener as 10-point dogs in 2014, then stomped Pac-12 opponent Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field to open 2015.

Now the Aggies get to play at home, where they are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 September games. I look for a hostile atmosphere in College Station to be key in guiding the Aggies to a win and cover Saturday afternoon.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* K-State/Stanford CFB Friday No-Brainer on Stanford -14

Stanford head coach David Shaw continues to do a tremendous job in recruiting. Despite returning just 12 starters last year, the Cardinal went 12-2 and beat Iowa by 29 points in the Rose Bowl. Now they return just 11 starters, but that’s not a big concern given the talent level on hand.

The biggest concern is replacing Kevin Hogan at quarterback. But senior Ryan Burns has been waiting his turn and is prepared to take over the job. He stands 6’5″ and 233 pounds and was a highly rated recruit as a high school player in Virginia, but he couldn’t find the field because of Hogan’s success.

The good news is that Burns will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, who should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. McCaffrey broks Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season last year. He finished with 2,019 rushing yards and 645 receiving yards and was a beast on special teams as well.

The Stanford defense figures to be dominant once again with six starters back from a unit that gave up 22.6 points per game last year. The D only had three starters back last season, so improvement can be expected on this side of the ball. Look for the Cardinal to get back to the 16.4 points and 282 yards per game they allowed in 2014.

While the Cardinal are legit national title contenders, the K-State Wildcats finally look like they’re fading in the Big 12 under legendary coach Bill Snyder. They went just 6-7 last year and were blown out 55-0 by Oklahoma and 45-23 by Arkansas in the process. They were outgained by 118 yards per game overall and 153.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.

Now the Wildcats have just 12 returning starters and all kinds of questions on offense. Jesse Ertz was hurt last year, so he’ll be back, but he’s not going to have much success against this dominant Stanford defense. I expect this game to play out similar to the 45-23 Arkansas game and the 45-16 beat down Stanford put on Iowa, which was a much better team than Kansas State.

Stanford is 42-5 at home over the past seven seasons. It has won 15 straight non-conference home openers with its last lost coming to Notre Dame. The Cardinal have won eight straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game as well.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Stanford is 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall, including 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.  Bet Stanford Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -128

The Kansas City Royals have lost two straight for the first time in a month.  Both losses came in extra innings, and after having yesterday off, I look for them to come back strong today at home against the Detroit Tigers and get back in the win column.

The Royals have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  Danny Duffy is 11-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including a perfect 6-0 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Duffy has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 14 career starts against Detroit as well.

Anibal Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in the American League this season.  He's 5-12 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 22 starts.  Sanchez has really struggled on the road, going 2-6 with an 8.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 11 starts away from home this year.

Duffy is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kansas City is 41-23 at home this season, including 15-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -8.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Injuries absolutely killed this team last year as they were better than their 4-9 record would indicate. They have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games by a touchdown or less over the last two seasons alone.

Now fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is going to have his best team yet. The Buffaloes return 18 starters and 63 lettermen, making them the most experienced team in the Pac-12. Look for this team to be undervalued early in the season, and I believe they aren’t getting enough respect as only 8.5-point favorites here.

Starting QB Sefo Liufau is now a senior and has already thrown for 7,397 yards in his career. He’ll be the school’s all-time leading passer by within a couple games this season. He is among nine returning starters on offense from a unit that put up a respectable 397 yards per game last year.

The defense improved dramatically last season in allowing just 27.5 points per game after giving up 39.0 in 2014. Now the Buffaloes should take another step forward with nine starters and each of the top four tacklers returning.

While Colorado is on the rise, Colorado State is surely on the decline this season. Mike Bobo stepped into a great situation last year with 15 returning starters left over from Jim McElwain, who left for Florida. All he could get out of that team was a 7-6 record after they went 10-3 the year before.

Now it looks like a rebuilding year as the Rams return just 10 starters. The offense returns QB Nick Stevens, but he loses each of his top four receivers from last year, including stud Rashard Higgins, who caught 75 balls for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

While the offense should still be decent, the bigger concern is on defense where the Rams return only four starters. They had eight starters back on D last year and gave up 27.2 points per game, and now they’ll easily give up 30-plus in 2016. That explosive Colorado offense should have its way with this inexperience Rams’ defense in Week 1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Colorado Friday.

20* Oregon State/Minnesota Pac-12 vs. Big Ten BAILOUT on Oregon State +13

The Oregon State Beavers come into the 2016 season undervalued because of their 2-10 campaign last year. That’s pretty evident by the fact that they are 13-point underdogs to a Minnesota team that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten last year with a 5-7 record during the regular season.

While I do like this Minnesota team, I do not agree that it should be 13-point favorites here Thursday night. The Golden Gophers return 13 starters and 39 lettermen, but they lose four of their top six tacklers on defense.

Most of their returning starters are on offense with seven in all, but this is a unit that put up just 22.5 points per game last season. With the lack of an explosive offense, it’s easy to predict that the Golden Gophers are going to have a hard time covering this 13-point spread in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Gary Andersen did a tremendous job at Utah State and Wisconsin before coming here. He won 30 games over a 3-year span before coming to Oregon State. Then he stepped into an awful situation as the Beavers had just nine returning starters last year, including two on defense.

But now Andersen has more of his players in place and 13 starters and 47 lettermen returning while losing only 17 letter winners. The Beavers go from an inexperienced team to one that now has eight projected senior starters. I look for them to surprise some folks this season and to be much more competitive than last year.

Andersen brought Utah State transfer Darell Garretson with him to Corvallis. He completed 67% of his passes for 1,140 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio in 2014 while making four starts with the Aggies. He then sat out last season and now Garretson will guide what should be one of the most improved offenses in the country. Garretson was very impressive in the spring and should build off of that.

Oregon State has won three of its last four road openers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins last season came by 9 points or less, so it isn’t used to blowing teams out. Andersen is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 22-10 ATS in his career in non-conference games.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s leading rusher last year was Shannon Brooks (709 yards, 7 TD, 6.0/carry), and he’s doubtful Thursday with a foot injury.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +103

The Minnesota Twins will be motivated to avoid the history books on Thursday.  They are riding a 13-game losing streak, one shy of the franchise mark set in 1982.  Look for them to get back in the win column today in Game 1 of this series against the Chicago White Sox, who now realize they have nothing to play for after getting swept by the Tigers last season, putting them 8.5 games out of the 2nd wild card spot.

Ervin Santana is coming off his worst start since the end of May, but it came on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays, which is to be expected.  However, Santana had allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts dating back to June 14 prior to that outing against the Blue Jays.  Santana has also allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against the White Sox.

Santana is 21-10 (+13.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher in his career.  The White Sox are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Chicago is 9-27 in its last 36 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The White Sox are 2-9 in Quintana's last 11 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Chicago is 0-6 in Quintana's last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the Twins Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off a magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA title.  It was their first 12-win season since 2002 when they won the FCS title.

It's safe to say that the Hilltoppers are now way overvalued heading into 2016.  I'll gladly fade them now as they go from 16 returning starters last year down to 12 this season.

The key loss for the Hilltoppers is C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards and 48 touchdowns against nine interceptions last year.  Doughty shattered the career passing yards mark at WKU with 12,855 yards.  He's one of those guys who is irreplaceable, and the Hilltoppers won't be nearly as good without him.

Another big concern is that WKU goes from having nine returning starters on D last year to just four returning starters this year.  They had only four starters back on D in 2014 when they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game, but dropped to 25.9 and 405 last year with an experienced D.  They'll get back to giving up boat loads up points in 2016.

Rice is certainly a team primed for a bounce-back year after going 5-7 last season.  They had gone a combined 18-9 the previous two seasons, but they had just nine starters back last year and it was a rebuilding season.

David Bailiff is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and now he'll be working with one of his better teams at Rice.  The Owls return 16 starters and 52 lettermen while losing only 17 letter winners.  This is a team that I fully expect to challenge for the C-USA title in 2016.

The biggest improvement for Rice will come on defense as they had just three returning starters last year and gave up 35.8 points and 447 yards per game.  But now they return nine starters on D and each of their top seven tacklers. In fact, this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country.

The offense figures to be improved as well with four veteran running backs, six of the top seven receivers returning, and an improved offensive line.  The key will be getting better QB play, which shouldn't be a problem after inconsistency last year.  Senior Tyler Stehling has been waiting for his time and this will be his year after throwing for 479 yards in 10 games as a back-up previously.

Most will look at WKU's 49-10 win over Rice last season and think the Hilltoppers will run away with it.  But a closer look shows that the Owls gave away that game by losing the turnover battle 5-0.  I expect this opener to be much more competitive and for the Owls to stay within two touchdowns.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -125

The Kansas City Royals are now 18-5 in their last 23 games overall and making a strong push to make the playoffs and defend their World Series title.  They haven't lost two straight games since the beginning of August, and after a 5-4 loss in extras last night, I look for them to bounce back at home.

Ian Kennedy is having a very good season for the Royals, going 9-9 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 26 starts, including 4-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Kennedy has really been dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts.

Luis Cessa is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.  He has only made two starts this season and won them both, but with such a small sample size, I don't think he is as good as he's getting credit for.  I'll gladly fade him here tonight.

The Royals are one of the best home teams in baseball at 41-22 on the season.  Kansas City is 23-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Kennedy is 17-4 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in his career.  The Royals are 4-0 in Kennedy's last four starts.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -150

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently in the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are trying to fend off numerous pursuers, and they are doing a great job of it, especially on the road.  They will take on a Milwaukee Brewers team that has lost five straight coming in tonight.

Adam Wainwright admittedly isn't having his best season at 9-8 with a 4.67 ERA in 26 starts.  However, he's up against a team he has owned in the past.  Indeed, Wainwright is 13-8 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 26 career starts against Milwaukee.  He has pitched 11 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.

Wily Peralta has been even worse than Wainwright this season.  He is 5-9 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.730 WHIP in 17 starts, including 4-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.703 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Peralta doesn't enjoy facing the Cardinals, going 4-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.

St. Louis is 39-24 in all road games this season.  Wainwright is 28-9 (+19.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in his career.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight road games.  St. Louis is 35-16 in Wainwright's last 51 starts vs. NL Central opponents.

The Brewers are 21-49 in their last 70 vs. NL Central foes.  Milwaukee is 3-8 in Peralta's last 11 starts.  The Cardinals are 8-2 in Wainwright's last 10 starts vs. Brewers, including 4-0 in his last four road starts against them.  St. Louis is 50-21 in the last 71 meetings.  The Brewers are 0-6 in Peralta's last six starts vs. St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -143

After losing back-to-back home games to the Oakland A's over the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series.  They'll be taking on a Milwaukee Brewers team that has nothing to play for and has lost four straight coming in.

The Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound tonight, which justifies laying this juice.  Carlos Martinez is 12-7 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Martinez has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Zach Davies is having a decent season for the Brewers at 10-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 23 starts.  However, he has shown signs of wearing down here as we near the end of the year, going 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in his last three starts.

St. Louis is 38-24 in all road games this season.  The Cardinals are 10-2 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  St. Louis is 6-1 in its last seven road games.  The Cardinals are 20-8 in Martinez's last 28 road starts.  The Brewers are 21-48 in their last 69 vs. NL Central opponents.  St. Louis is 49-21 in the last 70 meetings.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez's last four road starts vs. Brewers.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* Bengals/Jaguars NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville -1

No Analysis for Preseason

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -120

I've backed the Pittsburgh Pirates with success each of the past two days and I'll back them again at a generous price Sunday as they go for the 4-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers.  They are gaining momentum right now as they trailed the St. Louis Cardinals by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.

Ivan Nova has proven to be an excellent addition to the Pirates' rotation here down the stretch.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts, including a complete game his last time out where he allowed only one earned run in a 7-1 victory over the Astros.

Chase Anderson should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  He is 7-10 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 24 starts this season while averaging only 4.9 innings per start.  Anderson is also 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in five career starts against Pittsburgh.

Nova is 17-4 (+12.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career.  Nova is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in his career.  The Pirates are 7-0 in their last seven road games and 4-0 in Nova's last four starts.  The Brewers are 21-47 in their last 68 vs. NL Central foes.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -145

I'm going back to the Pittsburgh Pirates again Saturday after they cashed for me last night in a 5-3 win over the Brewers.  The Pirates are making one last push to make the playoffs, and they cannot afford any letdowns at this point going forward.

The Pirates are worth the price of admission behind rookie Jameson Taillon, who is 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts.  Taillon has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two starts against the Brewers this season.

Jimmy Nelson is 7-13 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  While he has had his moments this year, Nelson appears to be wearing down as we near the end of the season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Pittsburgh is 7-2 in Taillon's last nine starts.  The Pirates are 4-0 in Taillon's last four starts with 4 days of rest.  The Brewers are 25-53 in their last 78 vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 1-6 in Nelson's last seven starts.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +3.5

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Chiefs/Bears NFLX Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -1

No Analysis for Preseason

20* Cal/Hawaii 2016 CFB Season Opener on Hawai'i +20

Last season set up perfectly for the Cal Golden Bears to have their best year of the Sonny Dykes era. They had a whopping 17 returning starters, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback. They made the most of it and went 8-5 overall.

But now Dykes will be rebuilding in his 4th year here. The Golden Bears lose a whopping 29 players who contributed in 2015, including Goff and his top six receivers. They went from being the #3 most experienced team in the country last year to #119 this year. They return just nine starters in all.

While the losses on offense are huge, the lack of proven playmakers on defense are just as big. The Golden Bears have lost each of their top six tacklers from last year after SS Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the spring and is out for the year. They are going to have a hard time stopping anyone this season.

It’s certainly hard to be too high on Hawai’i coming into 2016 after going a combined 11-39 over the past four seasons. However, I like the new head coach in Nick Rolovich, who had some great offenses at Nevada after spending the past four years as their coordinator. The new defensive coordinator is Kevin Lampa, who has a whopping 42 years of coaching experience.

The cupboard certainly isn’t bare for the Warriors, who return 15 starters and 46 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. The offense figures to be much better under Rolovich’s tutelage with the experience that returns.

Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starter. He has made 19 starts in his career here and should be primed for his best season yet. Leading rusher Paul Harris (1,132 yards, 6 TD, 5.7/carry last year) is back, as are each of the top three receivers from a year ago. Four starters return along the offensive line as well. I look for this unit to have plenty of success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Hawai’i has been a great bet in Week 1 each of the past five seasons, going a perfect 5-0 ATS during that stretch against five straight Pac-12 opponents. It beat Colorado 34-17 as 6-point home favorites in 2011, covered as 42-point dogs at USC in a 10-49 loss in ’12, covered as 23-point home dogs to USC in a 13-30 loss in ’13, nearly upset Washington as 17-point home dogs in a 16-17 loss in ’14, and upset Colorado 28-20 as 7-point home dogs in ’15.

The Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 foes.  Bet Hawai'i Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -112

The Pittsburgh Pirates (64-61) are making one last push to make the playoffs.  They came up with a huge 3-2 win in 10 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers (56-71) last night, and now I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 2 tonight.

I believe the Pirates should be much bigger favorites today due to the edge they have on the mound.  Ryan Vogelsong has been awesome for them, going 1-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee as well.

Matt Garza remains one of the worst starters in baseball, going 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 13 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three.  He has gone 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 11 career starts against Pittsburgh, including 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three against them.

The Pirates are 45-22 in their last 67 Friday games.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 25-52 in its last 77 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 3-10 in Garza's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Pirates Friday.

15* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Redskins -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason

20* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +107

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep against their rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  They have dropped the first two games of this series and now trail the Dodgers by three games in the NL West.

The Giants clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Matt Moore, who is 7-10 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.301 WHIP over 25 starts between San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  Moore pitched 6 2/3 innings without allowing a single earned run against the Dodgers on July 27 of this year.

Ross Stripling is no more than a fill-in starter for the Dodgers this year.  He is 2-4 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 11 starts.  Stripling has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in six home starts this season.

The Dodgers are hitting just .241 and scoring 4.0 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.  The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

15* Falcons/Dolphins NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Atlanta +2

No Analysis for Preseason

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants +128

Now trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by two games after losing Game 1 of this series, the San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated to come back for a victory in Game 2 tonight.  I look for them to do so with their advantage on the mound in this one.

Johnny Cueto is 14-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 8-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Cueto has posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 11 career starts against Los Angeles.  He has given up just 3 earned runs and 8 base runners over 15 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers this season.

Rich Hill certainly revived his career in Boston and Oakland over the past two seasons.  However, he will be making his season debut for the Dodgers tonight while coming off the disabled list following a blister on his pitching hand.  I fully expect the Dodgers to limit his pitch count in this one.

San Francisco is 16-5 in Cueto's last 21 starts.  The Giants are 11-1 in Cueto's last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.  San Francisco is 21-8 in its last 29 vs. NL West opponents.  Bet the Giants Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +107

I love the Kansas City Royals' never-say-die attitude.  They could have easily packed it in, but instead they have won 13 of their last 15 games overall to put themselves right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race.  I expect them to pick up their 9th straight win Tuesday in Game 1 against the Miami Marlins.

The Royals have the clear edge on the mound tonight behind Yordano Ventura, who is 8-9 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 24 starts.  However, Ventura has really stepped up his game down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts.

Andrew Cashner has gone in the other direction.  He is 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cashner is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 2.250 WHIP in his lone career start against Kansas City.

Ventura is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 15-2 (+13.6 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  The Royals are 36-17 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-128)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem beating the lowly San Diego Padres by two runs or more today.  They have a massive edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series and should provide Jon Lester with plenty of run support.

Lester has gone 13-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three.  Lester is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego, though this will be his first-ever start at Petco Park.

Edwin Jackson has gone 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres.  Injuries and trades have depleted the Padres' rotation, which is the only reason Jackson is even in the majors.  Jackson is 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago.

Lester is 43-8 (+23.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning these games by 3.1 runs per game.  Lester is 20-3 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these games by 2.5 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -151

The Kansas City Royals have won 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are making a serious run at the playoffs and will cap off the series sweep against the Minnesota Twins today.  That' why we'll lay the heavy juice in this one.

I also like backing ace Danny Duffy, who has been far and away their best starter this year.  Duffy is 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 18 starts with 122 K's in 114 innings.  He is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Duffy is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine career starts against the Twins, and the Royals are 8-1 in those games.  Ervin Santana is 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 18 career starts against Kansas City.  Santana gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Royals on May 24.

Duffy is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Royals are 15-3 in Duffy's 18 starts this season.  Kansas City is 14-1 (+12.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -130

The Kansas City Royals have won 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They are playing like the defending world champs they are right now, and we'll continue to back them tonight.

The Royals host the lowly Minnesota Twins (49-73), who have the worst record in the American League.  The Twins go with Hector Santiago, who has posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 25 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Royals go with Ian Kennedy, who is 7-9 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 24 starts, including 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in nine home starts.  Kennedy is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Royals are 6-0 in their last six games overall.  Kansas City is 45-21 in its last 66 home games.  This team dominates at home and this is a generous price as a result.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* Panthers/Titans NFLX No-Brainer on Tennessee PK

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -121

The Kansas City Royals have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  They are making one final push at the postseason after making the World Series each of the last two years.  I look for them to continue their recent surge against the Minnesota Twins tonight.

Edinson Volquez has been much better at home this season, going 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 14 starts. Volquez has owned the Twins as well, going 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Jose Berrios has struggled in his rookie season for the Twins.  He has gone 2-3 with a 9.32 ERA and 1.857 WHIP over seven starts this year.  Berrios gave up six runs, five earned, and nine base runners in two innings of a 7-15 loss to the Houston Astros in his last turn on August 11.

Kansas City is 13-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Twins are 24-49 in their last 73 games following a loss.  The Royals are 44-21 in their last 65 home games.  Kansas City is 21-8 in Volquez's last 29 home starts.  The Royals are 6-0 in Volquez's last six starts vs. Minnesota.  Kansas CIty is 49-22 in the last 71 meetings.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* Dolphins/Cowboys NFLX No-Brainer on Miami +3

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Vikings/Seahawks NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -102

The Kansas City Royals still believe they can make the postseason.  They have gotten back to .500 after winning four straight, seven of eight and nine of their last 11 games overall.  Now we are getting them at basically even money at home against the Minnesota Twins today.

I'm certainly not going to say the Royals have the edge on the mound, but it's pretty close.  Dillon Gee is going to want some revenge after giving up 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against Minnesota on August 13.

Tyler Duffey is getting way too much respect.  He is 8-8 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Duffey has posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals, both of which have come this season.

Kansas City is 7-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Royals are 43-21 in their last 64 home games.  Kansas City is 49-21 in its last 70 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 22-48 in the last 70 meetings.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals +100

The Kansas City Royals continue to fight as they have a chance to get back to .500 with a win tonight while sweeping the Detroit Tigers.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall coming in and are showing great value as underdogs today.

Yordano Ventura has turned it on here down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ventura has never lost to the Tigers, going 5-0 with a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Anibal Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 4-11 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in 19 starts.  Sanchez is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, allowing 14 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.

Ventura is 14-3 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 2-14 in Sanchez's last 16 starts on grass.  Detroit is 1-5 in Sanchez's last six home starts.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -113

The Seattle Mariners have won 11 of their last 13 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels have lost 11 straight and simply cannot put the wheels back on.  I'll gladly back the Mariners at this price today as they continue playing their best baseball of the season.

Ariel Miranda has recently been promoted to the rotation.  He held his own in his first start, giving up just two earned runs over 6 innings in a 2-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox, which have been the best offensive team in baseball this season.  So that was no small feat.

The key here is that I'll gladly fade Jhoulys Chacin of the Angels.  He is 3-8 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a monstrous 13.50 ERA and 3.093 WHIP in his last three starts.  He have given up 16 earned runs and 33 base runners over 10 2/3 innings in his last three outings.

The Angels are 0-11 in their last 11 games, while the Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 games.  Los Angeles is 0-4 in Chacin's last four starts.  The Angels are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.  Seattle is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -127

I've have been riding the red-hot Mariners with a ton of success lately and will continue to do so tonight.  They have won 10 of their last 12 games overall to close in on one of the final wild card spots in the American League.

Now the Mariners will give the ball to ace Felix Hernandez, who is 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He has looked very strong of late since returning from injury, going 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hernandez has posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 49 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Angels have lost a season-high 10 straight games coming in and have nothing to play for.  It won't get any better tonight with Ricky Nolasco taking the mound.  Nolasco is 4-9 with a 5.14 ERA in 23 starts, including 0-4 with a 5.30 ERA in 11 home starts.

Nolasco is 3-15 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Mariners are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Angels are 0-8 in their last eight after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* Texans/49ers NFLX No-Brainer on Houston +3.5

No Analysis for Preseason

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -108

I'm going to continue riding one of the hottest teams in baseball at a great price Sunday.  The Seattle Mariners have won nine of their last 11 games overall and are making a serious push at the playoffs right now.  Don't expect much resistance from the A's today.

Wade LeBlanc has held his own in the Mariners' rotation this season.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in six starts.  LeBlanc is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.

Zach Neal will be making just his second start for the A's.  He's 1-1 with a 7.72 ERA this season.  One of those two starts came against the Mariners on May 5.  Neal allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings of a 3-13 loss at Seattle in that contest.

Oakland is 3-15 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.  The Mariners are 5-1 in LeBlanc's six starts this season.  The A's are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. a left-handed starter.  Oakland is 1-7 in its last eight Sunday games.  Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine meetings in Oakland.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -129

The Seattle Mariners had won six straight and eight of their previous nine games before losing 6-3 to the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  Look for the Mariners to get right back in the win column today due to their edge on the mound.

Hisashi Iwakuma was 0-3 in April but has gone 13-4 since.  He's 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA against the A's this season.  He beat Boston and Detroit in his last two starts while pitching a combined 14 1/3 shutout innings with 15 strikeouts and one walk.

Kendall Graveman is having a decent season, but he's easily the worse starter in this matchup.  He's 8-7 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in his last three starts.

Iwakuma is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Saturday in his career having never lost.  The Mariners are 7-1 in Iwakuma's last eight starts overall.  Seattle is 6-0 in its last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

15* Cowboys/Rams ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

No Analysis for Preseason

15* AL Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -116

The New York Yankees are in a huge letdown spot here.  They just took the final two games of their series with the rival Boston Red Sox in comeback fashion.  They played yesterday, while the Tampa Bay Rays had the day off, giving them an edge in rest.

The Rays also have the edge on the mound tonight behind Chris Archer, who has been dominant of late.  He has posted a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in his last three starts.  Archer owns the Yankees, going 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.

C.C. Sabathia has struggled over the past two months.  He is 1-5 with a 6.66 ERA in his last nine starts, giving up a combined 39 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings.  Sabathia is 1-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  He has given up at least 3 earned runs in 10 of his last 12 starts against the Rays as well.

The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five starts vs. AL East opponents.  New York is 0-4 in Sabathia's last four home starts.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the Rays Friday.

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +3

No Analysis for Preseason

15* Broncos/Bears NFLX No-Brainer on Chicago PK

No Analysis for Preseason

15* NFLX Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2

No Analysis for Preseason

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -125

After losing three of their last four, the Boston Red Sox come into this game with the New York Yankees highly motivated for a victory.  I like their chances with Eduardo Rodriquez on the mound tonight.

Rodriquez has been much better of late.  He has given up three runs or fewer in five straight starts, and 10 earned runs over 28 1/3 innings over that span for a 3.18 ERA.  But what really stands out is that Rodriquez is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

Michael Pineda has struggled all season, going 6-10 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 22 starts this year.  He has given up 9 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts.  Pineda is 4-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston as well.

Boston is 77-39 (+34.9 Units) against the money line after three straight games with no home runs since 1997.  The Yankees are 0-5 in their last five games following a win.  New York is 2-9 in Pineda's last 11 starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -117

The New York Mets are in need of wins in bunches if they want to get back to the postseason.  They'll be motivated for that tonight, plus for Bartolo Colon to get a win to become only the second active pitcher to beat all 30 major league clubs as he has never beaten the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Colon has been steady all season, going 10-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 22 starts.  He has gone 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three starts with no signs of wearing down.  This will only be his 3rd career start against the Diamondbacks.

Robbie Ray has not been nearly as effective as Colon this year.  He has gone 5-11 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 22 starts.  Ray has shown signs of wearing down of late, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three starts coming in.

Ray is 0-10 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 3-14 in Ray's last 17 road starts.  New York is 5-1 in Colon's last six home starts.  Bet the Mets Wednesday.

20* AL Bounce-Back GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -128

The Houston Astros need to bust out of this slump they're in if they want to make it back to the postseason.  They have lost nine of their last 11 overall, which has them highly motivated for a victory here tonight against the Minnesota Twins.

Mike Fiers has been solid for the last few months.  He has posted a 3.56 ERA in 11 starts since June 1.  Fiers has owned the Twins over his career, going 2-1 (4-1 money line) with a 2.79 ERA in five starts against them.

Hector Santiago was traded to the Twins prior to the deadline.  He has gone 10-5 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 11 home starts.  He gave up 4 runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to the Indians in his first start with the Twins on August 4.

The Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 4-1 in Fiers' last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Astros are 5-1 in Fiers' last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  The Twins are 9-24 in their last 33 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.