Winning Sports Picks

15* Broncos/Chiefs AFC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 47

The weather forecast has driven this total down from as high as 52 to below the key number of 48 and down to another key number of 47 tonight.  There are expected to be 15-25 MPH winds, so the move down was expected, but it has gone too far.  I think there's value on the OVER 47 here.

Even if the Chiefs decide to keep the ball on the ground more, they are going to continue to score.  They face the worst defense in the entire NFL in the Broncos, who allow 36.2 points per game, 451 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  The Broncos allow 188 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season.

The Broncos are much-improved on offense this season.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense, which is a Top 5 mark in the league.  They also average 4.9 yards per carry on the ground, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are going to be able to run the football on this Kansas City defense, and Russell Wilson has ample healthy weapons outside this season.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 68, 90, 59 and 52 points in their last four games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with 51, 62 and 52 combined points.  And two of those were with Denver's terrible offense and elite defense last year.  It is opposite for the Broncos this season with a solid offense and the worst defense in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Braves/Phillies NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +133

The Philadelphia Phillies have outscored the Atlanta Braves 20-7 through three games in this series. I like the value we are getting on the Phillies as home underdogs tonight as once again the Braves are getting too much respect from the books.

Few starters have had as much success against the Braves as Ranger Suarez, who has posted a 2.66 ERA in nine career starts against them.  Suarez is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA in his last six starts against Atlanta, allowing just 3 earned runs in 30 innings.

Spencer Strider is the ace of this Atlanta staff but he is vulnerable with a 3.76 ERA in his 33 starts this season.  The Phillies are 7-0 (+10.1 Units) in Suarez's last seven playoff starts.  Bet the Phillies Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Mountaineers play a physical brand of football that belongs in the Big Ten.  These Big 12 teams aren't prepared for it, and it's working wonders for the Mountaineers thus far.  Running the football and playing defense still wins in college football.

West Virginia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with its lone loss coming on the road at Penn State in a game they should have covered, but James Franklin decided to punch one more score in instead of taking knees in the opener.  The Mountaineers have since reeled off four straight wins and covers, beating Duquesne 56-17 as 38.5-point favorites, Pitt 17-6 as 2.5-point favorites, Texas Tech 20-13 as 6-point dogs and TCU 24-21 as 13-point road dogs.

I don't trust Dana Holgorsen and Houston.  I gave them a chance last game as 10-point underdogs at Texas Tech because the Red Raiders had a backup QB going.  They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but it didn't last long as they were blasted 49-28 to fall to 2-3 this season.  They were lucky to beat UTSA in the opener 17-14 due to being +3 in turnovers, or they'd be 1-4.  They also were upset at Rice as 7-point favorites.  Their only legit win came over Sam Houston State, which is 0-5 this season.

This is one of the rare instances we have two common opponents to compare these teams.  Houston lost 36-13 at home to TCU and 49-28 on the road to Texas Tech.  West Virginia beat TCU 24-21 on the road and beat Texas Tech 20-13 at home.  As you can see, West Virginia beat those two teams by a combined 10 points while Houston lost to them by a combined 44 points.

West Virginia has by far the superior defense allowing just 19.0 points per game, 335 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  Houston allows 29.8 points per game, 406 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  West Virginia averages 194 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry despite facing a tough schedule of opposing rush defenses, and Houston allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry despite facing an easy schedule of opposing rush offenses.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

25* MLB Division Series TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

Two gas cans go tonight in Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.  The end result will be a slug fest that likely gets OVER the total by the time these two starters exit the game.

Lance Lynn is 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 32 starts this season with a whopping 44 homers allowed.  Lynn is 7-6 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 16 road starts allowing 62 earned runs and 26 homers in 92 innings.

Brandon Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 19 starts this season allowing 60 earned runs and 20 homers in 92 2/3 innings.  Pfaadt is 2-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP in two starts against the Dodgers this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 22-10 in Lynn's 32 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston State/New Mexico State UNDER 42

There are expected to be 20 MPH winds inside Aggie Memorial Stadium Wednesday night in this matchup between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State.  Points are going to be hard to come by because of these winds, plus the fact that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.

New Mexico State ranks 128th out of 133 teams in tempo averaging 30.5 seconds in between plays.  Sam Houston State ranks 101st at 27.9 seconds in between plays, which says a lot about how slow they play when you consider they have trailed in every game this season and are 0-5 on the year.

Sam Houston has the worst offense in the entire country averaging 241.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  But they do have a very good defense that allows 379 yards per game despite facing a very tough schedule of BYU, Air Force, Houston, Liberty and Jacksonville State.  I would argue that this New Mexico State offense is the worst that they will have played all season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Braves/Phillies NLDS No-Brainer on Philadelphia -121

The Atlanta Braves haven't decided if they're going with A.J. Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder as of this writing.  It doesn't matter as both are gas cans, and the Braves are going to be at a severe disadvantage on the mound against Aaron Nola and the Phillies.

Nola is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  He has been very sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has fared very well against the Braves, going 16-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 34 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 12 innings in his last two starts against them this season.

Nola is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three home starts against the Braves, pitching 18 innings without allowing a single earned run.  Philadelphia is 26-8 in its last 34 home games after a game where the bullpen blew a save.  Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Rangers ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +122

The Baltimore Orioles got their bats going with 14 hits and 8 runs against the Rangers in Game 2.  I think that great hitting carries over into Game 3 tonight against Nathan Eovaldi and this awful Texas bullpen.

Eovaldi's gem against the Rays in his last start was an aberration.  He had previously been a gas can since returning from injury on September 5th.  Unfortunately, with DeGrom, Scherzer and Gray out, he has been forced back into action.  Eovaldi went 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA in his previous six starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings while not making it past the 5th inning in any start.

Dean Kremer has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA in 32 starts this season and the Orioles are 24-8 (+17.9 Units) in those 32 starts.  Kremer is 5-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 13 road starts as well.  The Orioles are 20-4 (+17.3 Units) in Kremer's 24 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.

I think the spot is terrible for the Rangers.  They have played 11 consecutive road games prior to this game, so they have been on the road since September 25th.  There are distractions they have to deal with coming back home, and they are fat and happy going into this one with a 2-0 lead.  I'll side with the more focused, determined Orioles in Game 3 tonight as underdogs.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* Coastal Carolina/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Two high-powered offense go up against two suspect defenses tonight in this annual showdown between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State that usually ends up in a shootout.  It will be more of the same here Tuesday night.

Appalachian State averages 36.4 points per game, 463 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Mountaineers have great balance, rushing for 204 yards per game and passing for 259 yards per game.  They have a poor defense, allowing 30.8 points per game and 5.7 yards per play despite facing a soft schedule of opposing offenses that average 22.8 points pe game and 5.0 per play, allowing 8.0 points per game and 0.7 yards per play more.  They like to play fast ranking 41st of 133 teams at 24.7 seconds between plays.

Coastal Carolina averages 30.8 points per game, 425 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grayson McCall.  He is completing 64.3% of his passes for 1,302 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per attempt.  Coastal allows 397 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense thus far despite facing a weak schedule.

Coastal is coming off a 28-38 loss to Georgia Southern and 66 combined points.  Appalachian State is coming off a 41-40 win over LA-Monroe and 81 combined points.  Note that LA-Monroe only scored 7 points against South Alabama last week, so that just shows how down this Mountaineers defense is this season.

Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 35-28 last season for 63 combined points.  These teams have combined for at least 57 points in six of their last even meetings.  They have averaged 67.5 combined points in their last four meetings.  

Coastal Carolina is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following two consecutive unders.  Appalachian State is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games coming off a win by 3 points or less.  The Chanticleers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 road games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Packers/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay ML +105

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers Monday.  They played last Thursday so they've had nearly two weeks to prepare for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Packers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL in the early going, so this extra rest is huge for them.  Guys like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson returned from injury last game but were on a snap count.  Both should be back to full strength and play the entire game, which will help out Jordan Love drastically.

The Packers have the better offense in this one with Love and his playmakers over likely Jimmy G and his playmakers.  It's no coincidence Jimmy G has struggled and gotten hurt again here now that he doesn't have Kyle Shanahan calling the shots for him.  It's a big downgrade in head coach Josh McDaniels, who continues making the wrong decisions for this team.  Davante Adams is banged up with a shoulder injury and did not practice Thursday.

The biggest weakness for the Packers this season has been their run defense.  However, that shouldn't be much of an issue here as the Raiders haven't been able to get anything going on the ground.  They average 65 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry against teams that allow 137 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, so they have faced a weak schedule of opposing run defenses.  The Raiders are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which is really poor considering they have an offensive-minded head coach in McDaniels.  The Raiders also give up 25.3 points per game.

Matt LaFleur is 9-1 ATS after being outrushed by 75 yards or more as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 16-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Packers are better on both sides of the ball and at head coach.  The only thing the Raiders have going for them is home field, but Packers fans will travel and it will probably be closer to a 50/50 split.  Green Bay has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' here to get a win and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL this season.  They have now won 14 consecutive regular season games, are 13-1 since trading for Christian McCaffrey, and haven't lost a game in which Brock Purdy has started and finished.  The 49ers have won 10 consecutive home games with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, including seven by double-digits.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.

The 49ers have dominant stats, most notably on a yards per play basis, which is my favorite stat in the NFL.  They have scored at least 30 points in all four games this season while averaging 398 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They allow just 14.5 points per game, 284 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

Dallas has been living off turnovers and defensive touchdowns to mask their problems on offense.  They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games and are +9 in turnover differential, many of those which were returned for touchdowns.  Non-offensive touchdowns are tough to count on.  Their offense has struggled in the red zone this year, and that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys won't be able to turn the 49ers over as they have committed only one turnover all season.  Brock Purdy is great at taking care of the football.  The Cowboys only average 5.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  Those are numbers of an average team, so the Cowboys aren't in the same breathe as the 49ers in that department.  But many see these as close to even teams, which just isn't the case.

The 49ers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and I think the 49ers are better this season than they were in those two previous playoff wins.  They won 23-17 on the road in 2022 and 19-12 at home last season.  Dak Prescott could not do anything against their defense, and he will struggle once again.

Another key is that the 49ers are going to be able to run the football on Dallas, which was the key to Arizona pulling off the 28-16 upset over the Cowboys two weeks ago.  They rushed for 222 yards on 30 carries on the Cowboys.  Dallas was able to pin its ears back in the other three games against Daniel Jones and the Giants, Zach Wilson and the Jets and Mac Jones and the Patriots due to building large leads with their defense.  They won't be able to pin their ears back against the 49ers, who rush for 141 yards per game and have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey who has been unstoppable to this point.

San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The matchup of head coaches with Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy is worth a couple points here as well with Shanahan far and away better than McCarthy.  Bet the 49ers Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Bengals/Cardinals OVER 44.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They scored 28 points on the Giants, 28 on the Cowboys and then 16 on the 49ers and it should have been 24 because they missed a 2-point conversion and had two drops in the end zone to end the game.  They had no problem moving the football on both the 49ers and Cowboys, who have arguably the two best defenses in the NFL.

Arizona has a hideous defense that allows 25.5 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  We are 'buying low' on this Cincinnati Bengals offense, which has been the most disappointing offense in the league when compared to preseason expectations.  I think a trip to Arizona inside a dome could be just what the doctor ordered for Joe Burrow and company to get on track.

The Bengals have played four straight outdoor games to open the season against the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans.  Three of those four teams have elite defenses while the Rams are decent, and the Bengals had some success against the Rams.  Arizona has by far the worst defense the Bengals will have faced all season.

This Cincinnati defense has been almost equally disappointing taking a big step back this season.  The Bengals allow 23.5 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Josh Dobbs and James Conner are in line for a big game on the ground.  The Bengals allow 157 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  That will open things up for Dobbs down the field.  Arizona averages 144 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Dolphins OVER 49.5

I locked in this total on Monday prior to the Giants facing the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.  I did it in anticipation that this total would get bet to 50 or above.  But it has creeped back down largely due to the Giants being held to 3 points by the Seahawks.  I would probably make it a 25* play at 47 or 47.5, which is currently where it's at as of this writing.  So adjust your bets accordingly as this is one of the rare times I've gotten a worse line.  I still think this total should be 51 or higher.

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the most explosive offense in the NFL scoring 37.5 points per game, averaging 511 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous over a four-game sample size.  They remain healthy on offense and can name their number on this Giants defense, which is allowing 30.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

The Giants have been woeful on offense this season, but they have also played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in the Cowboys and 49ers.  They also faced a Seahawks team that got several key players back from injury on defense prior to their game and lived up to their potential.

In their lone game against a bad defense, the Giants put up 31 points and 439 total yards on the Cardinals.  The Dolphins may have a worse defense than the Cardinals.  They allow 29.8 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The Bills hung 48 points on them last week, and Daniel Jones is in line for another big game like he had against the Cardinals.

The Giants had to go up-tempo in the 2nd half to come back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Cardinals.  They are going to have to go up-tempo against the Dolphins as well because I expect them to be trailing the entire time trying to keep pace.  There's a chance the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis.  But I like the OVER regardless of whether or not he plays.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only an 18% chance of precipitation and 7 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Bills NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills beat themselves in the opener with four turnovers in a 22-16 loss to the Jets.  It was one of Josh Allen's worst games against a Jets defense that just has him figured out.  Allen and this Buffalo offense have responded in a big way since.

The Bills put up 38 points and 450 total yards on the Raiders in Week 2, 37 points and 386 total yards on the Commanders in Week 3 and 48 points and 414 total yards on the Dolphins in Week 4.  They have averaged 41 points per game in their last three games.

I think they can get to 30 points against Jacksonville to help pave the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  The Jaguars are allowing 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I also think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won't be able to be vanilla against this Buffalo offense as they will have to try and match them score for score.  

They get a banged-up Buffalo defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all banged up on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.

The weather looks great for Sunday in London with temps in the 70's, light winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  I think we get a shootout here with these two talented offenses.  

Buffalo is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Jacksonville is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Doug Pederson is 8-0 OVER In road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach.  Sean McDermott is 6-0 OVER following a win by 21 points or more over a division opponent as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills.  They are coming off three consecutive blowout wins.  Last week's 48-20 win over Miami was the one they really wanted, and I think they will be flat after making a statement and letting the Dolphins know they are still the kings of the division.

Buffalo's three straight blowout wins were largely due to being +9 in turnovers and forcing 10.  That's not sustainable.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won 23-7 and were never really in jeopardy.  Doug Pederson knows he's going to have to keep the foot on the gas to hang with the Bills, and I think the Jaguars are fully capable.

 The spot really favors Jacksonville.  They are the first team that gets to stay in London for consecutive weeks.  They are used to the scenery and there will be no jet lag.  Jet lag will be a real issue for the Bills, who will be playing a 9:30 AM EST body clock game.  I think they'll still be hung over from that huge Miami win.

Buffalo has a banged-up defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all on the injury report on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.  TE Dawson Knox is questionable as well.

The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road/neutral games.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +22

This is a terrible spot for the USC Trojans.  They are coming off the big National TV win over Deion Sanders and Colorado last week and they have Notre Dame on deck next week followed by Utah.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Trojans, and I expect them to be flat as a result.

The Trojans have gotten away with sloppy play the past two weeks.  They only beat Arizona State 42-28 as 34-point favorites and Colorado 48-41 as 22-point favorites.  They failed to cover those two spreads by a combined 35 points, and they are once again getting too much respect here against Arizona as 22-point favorites.

Arizona could easily be 5-0 this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS and have been very competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-24 (OT) at Mississippi State as 9-point dogs due to committing five turnovers.  They outgained Mississippi State 431 to 307, or by 124 total yards.  Then last week they gave Washington their stiffest test of the season, losing 31-24 as 19-point home underdogs.  If they can hang with Washington, they can certainly hang with USC.

Arizona starting QB Jayden deLaura is questionable for this one after sitting out last week, but I'm not concerned.  Backup Noah Fifita has actually been better than deLaura, completing 74.5% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also showing some mobility on the ground.  He played very well against stout Washington defense last week, and now he gets to take on a suspect USC defense.

USC allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 28 points to what was a previously dead Arizona State offense and then 41 points to Colorado last week.  This could be the best offense that USC has played all season with only Colorado in Arizona's ballpark.  And we've seen USC's defense struggle to stop Arizona in recent meetings.

In fact, Arizona is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with USC losing by 8 as 14-point dogs, by 7 as 21.5-point dogs and by 4 as 17.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three meetings with USC.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by one score.  Don't be surprised if this one goes down to the wire as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

Clayton Kershaw just keeps getting it done as one of the top starters in all of baseball.  Kershaw is 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has been at his best at home, going 7-1 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Kershaw owns the Diamondbacks, who struggle against left-handed starters.  Kershaw is 23-12 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 45 career starts against Arizona.  Kershaw has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight home starts against the Diamondbacks.  In fact, the Dodgers are 13-0 in Kershaw's last 13 home starts against Arizona.

Merrill Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in six of his eight career road starts at Los Angeles.  He is 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA in his last four road starts against the Dodgers, allowing 20 earned runs and 41 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Iowa State OVER 52

Iowa State faced three weak offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and Ohio to start the season.  They went under the total in all three.  But the Cyclones have taken a big step up in class the past two weeks in opposing offenses, and we saw both games fly over the total.  Now they get another juggernaut offense Saturday in TCU and this total hasn't been adjusted up high enough.  There's clear value on the OVER.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 34-27 for 61 combined points two weeks ago.  Last week, Iowa State lost 50-20 to Oklahoma for 70 combined points.  This Cyclones defense has been exposed, but the offense has shown some life since pretty much abandoning the running game and spreading things out.  The Cyclones have been going with more 3-4 WR sets instead of 2 TE sets, and it has opened things up for the offense.

TCU ranks 3rd in the country in pace averaging just 20.9 seconds in between snaps.  That quick pace means more possessions for both teams and more points.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 34.8 points per game, 487 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on a ridiculous 79 plays per game on offense.  They allow 71 plays per game on defense due to playing so fast.

This 52-point total is very low when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points, respectively.  It will be more of the same Saturday night when these two Big 12 rivals get together.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Fresno State/Wyoming UNDER 45.5

There will be double-digit winds at Wyoming Saturday night that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  Of course, both of these defenses are elite, which will also help.  And Wyoming has another terrible offense this season while Fresno State is down a couple notches from previous offenses.

Wyoming has done well to only allow 25.2 points per game, 385 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against a brutal schedule of opposing offenses that includes Texas Tech, Texas and Appalachian State.  The Cowboys are run-heavy again on offense this season averaging 36 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They average 325 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average allowing 396 yards per game and 6.1 per play, so they have been poor on offense.

Fresno State has played a very weak schedule of opposing defenses this season and averages just 5.8 yards per play against teams that allow 6.0 yards per play.  They have faces Purdue, Eastern Washington, Arizona State, Kent State and Nevada.  They are allowing 17.0 points per game, 282 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have held their last three opponents to a total of 19 points and an average of 6.3 points per game.  And Nevada scored a TD in the final seconds last week or it would be even better.

Wyoming ranks 120th out of 133 teams in pace at 29.3 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Cowboys will dictate tempo here playing at home.  But it's not like Fresno plays fast as they rank 86th at 27.0 seconds in between snaps.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 30, 17, 30 and 20 combined points.  None of those four meetings even sniffed this 45.5-point total, and this one won't, either.  Wyoming is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 home games after a game where 60 or more total combined points were scored.  Wyoming is 33-13 UNDER in its last 46 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Jeff Tedford is 7-0 UNDER in road games following three consecutive wins by 17 points or more as a head coach.  Craig Bohl is 10-2 UNDER game in October home games as the coach of Wyoming.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -1.5

Colorado State's 50-24 home loss in the opener has them undervalued.  The Rams are in Year 2 of Jay Norvell's system and it was going to take some time, but he's such a great coach he was going to get this program turned around.  And it turns out Washington State is very good as they are still unbeaten with wins over both Wisconsin and Oregon State as well.

Colorado State went on to take Colorado to OT an was unfortunate not to win that game outright as a 23-point underdog in a 43-35 defeat.  The Rams avoided the letdown the next week and went into Middle Tennessee and pulled off the 31-23 upset as 3.5-point road dogs.  The Rams then handled their business last week in a 41-20 win over Utah Tech.

A big reason for the Rams' resurgence is freshman QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi taking over for Clay Millen at quarterback.  Fowler-Nicolosi is completing 72.5% of his passes for 1,360 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt and only getting sacked four times.  He is running Norvell's system as efficiently as can be expected.

Utah State is in a terrible spot this week.  The Aggies are a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season, while the Rams have already had a bye.  They are coming off three straight difficult games with a 21-39 loss at Air Force, a 38-45 home loss to James Madison and a fortunate 34-33 win at UConn last week after the Huskies missed the potential tying extra point.  They had to travel clear across the country to face UConn last week and all the way back to Utah.  I can't help but think this is a tired team, especially after playing in those consecutive shootouts.

Colorado State has played the tougher schedule thus far and has held up well, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.1 yards per play.  Utah State is allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Utah State may also be without QB McCae Hillstead, who exited last game with a concussion and is questionable to return this week.  Backup Cooper Legas isn't as good and is more of a running QB than a passing QB and easier to defend.

Norvell is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games following two consecutive games with 40 or more pass attempts as a head coach.  Blake Anderson is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Georgia SEC No-Brainer on Kentucky +14.5

I faded Georgia in the first two games of the season with success assuming they'd be flat coming off back-to-back national titles.  My biggest regret this college football season is not continuing to fade them.  I won't make that mistake this week now that they are playing the best opponent they have all season.

Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs have remained flat and are going through the motions.  Of course, they also lost a ton of talent from last year's national title team.  The offense has taken a big step back and the defense isn't nearly as dominant as it was a year ago.

Georgia trailed South Carolina 14-3 at halftime at home in Week 3 and failed to cover as 26-point favorites in a 10-point win.  The Bulldogs only beat UAB by 28 at home as 40-point favorites the next week, and last week they needed a late TD at Auburn just to escape with a victory in a 27-20 win as 14-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs have to face Kentucky, who is clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East at worst this season.  The Wildcats are 5-0 this season with all five victories coming by 11 points or more.  None was more impressive than last week's 33-14 home win over Florida.  The Wildcats rushed for 329 yards on a good Florida defense, and they are physical enough to match Georgia in this one.

Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Georgia, and this may be one of the best teams in Kentucky history, while the last two editions of Georgia were arguably their two best teams in Georgia history.  Kentucky only lost 16-6 as 22.5-point home dogs last year, 30-13 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2021, 14-3 as 17-point home dogs in 2020 and 21-0 as 24-point road dogs in 2019.

Kentucky has shown it has the defense to hold Georgia in check, which will be the case again this season.  But the Wildcats have their best offense of the Mark Stoops era and can score on this Georgia defense, which allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week.  Georgia hasn't rushed for more than 189 yards in any game this season despite the soft schedule, so Kentucky can contain them on the ground.  Kentucky is averaging 7.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the entire county.

In fact, I think Kentucky wins the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  The Wildcats average 6.5 yards per carry on offense and give up just 2.5 yards per carry on defense.  Compare that to Georgia, which averages 4.4 yards per carry on offense and allows 4.0 yards per carry on defense, and you'd be surprised to see the team outgaining their opponents by 4.0 yards per carry as a 14.5-point underdog to the team that is only outgaining their opponents by 0.4 yards per carry.  That just shows Georgia being overvalued due to the name on their jerseys after winning consecutive national titles.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 49

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history between Kentucky and Georgia and it's easy to see there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 22, 43, 17 and 21 combined points.  This total of 49 is set way too high given the head-to-head history.

Georgia's offense is down this season and Kentucky's offense isn't as good as it was expected to be with Devin Leary at quarterback.  Leary is only completing 57.7% of his passes this season despite facing a soft schedule.  Kentucky has relied on its ground game and just posted 329 yards on the ground against Florida last week.

Kentucky knows they can run the ball on Georgia but won't have much success throwing it considering the Bulldogs only give up 4.7 yards per attempt.  And they know their best chance of being competitive is to limit the possessions and slow the game down to a snail's pace, which is what they do every year against Georgia to stay competitive and it's why they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kentucky ranks 123rd out of 133 teams in pace this season averaging 29.6 seconds in between plays.  Georgia ranks 96th at 27.6 seconds, so they like to play slow too.

Georgia allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week and gives up 4.0 per carry this season.  That's a far cry from Georgia defenses of the past two years when they won national titles.  And they have played a very soft schedule thus far.  They were held to 24 points by a bad South Carolina defense and needed a late TD to get to 27 against Auburn last week.

Kentucky will be the best defense Georgia has faced yet, and vice versa.  The Wildcats only allow 15.2 points per game, 297 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats have been very good against the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.

I haven't even mentioned the weather yet.  There are expected to be 17 MPH winds Saturday at Georgia, so both teams will be looking to keep it on the ground if they weren't already.  Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 9-0 UNDER in their last nine games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  

Kentucky is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 road games vs. teams that average 32 or more possessions minutes and 21 or more first downs per game.  Stoops is 10-1 UNDER in road games following a conference home win as the coach of Kentucky.  Kirby Smart is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Georgia.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +185

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing great value as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of this series Saturday.  Ranger Suarez has done his best work on the road this season with a 2.75 ERA in 10 road starts and only 4 homers allowed in 59 innings.

Few starters have had as much success against the Braves as Suarez has.  He is 1-2 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings in his last five starts against Atlanta for a 1.03 ERA.

I have very little negative to stay about Spencer Strider other than he is just too big of a favorite here over Suarez.  He did allow 3 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Phillies on September 19th.  Strider also faltered down the stretch with a 5.09 ERA in his final three starts of the season despite facing Washington twice.

Philadelphia is 7-0 in its last seven road games when playing the 1st game of a playoff series.  Suarez's teams are 6-0 (+8.2 Units) in his six career playoff starts.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Ohio UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Kent State and Ohio.  There are expected to be 18 MPH winds with a 25% chance of rain and temps in the 50's Saturday afternoon at Peden Stadium.  Of course, Kent State's woeful offense up against Ohio's elite defense is another reason to be on the UNDER in this one.

Ohio is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bobcats are only scoring 21.0 points per game and average 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have one of the very best defenses in the country, allowing just 10.8 points per game, 237 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play defensively.  On top of that, the Bobcats rank 119th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 29.2 seconds in between snaps.

Kent State also likes to play slow this season, ranking 80th out of 133 teams at 26.7 seconds in between snaps.  That's notable because Kent State has been trailing in every game other than its 38-10 win over FCS Central Connecticut State.  The Golden Flashes managed just 6 points against UCF, 6 points against Arkansas, 10 points against Fresno and 3 points against Miami Ohio in their four other games.  

It's a terrible Kent State offense averaging 12.6 points per game, 268.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  But this Kent State defense has been better than expected.  They held Arkansas to 28 points and 308 total yards and Miami Ohio to 23 points and 292 total yards.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Army -3

I love the spot for Army this week and hate the spot for Boston College.  It's a good spot for Army because they are coming off a bye week.  They are very close to being 4-0 this season, blowing a late 10-point lead in the opener to UL-Monroe and blowing a 10-3 halftime lead at Syracuse for their two losses.  I think the Black Knights would be laying more than 3 if they won both of those games, so we are getting them at a discount.

It's a bad spot for Boston College because they are coming off a big come-from-behind victory to beat Virginia 27-24 last week.  That came after losing by 2 to Florida State and giving up 56 points in a 28-point loss at Louisville.  So they have played three straight ACC games, and now they step out of conference this week before returning to conference play next week against Georgia Tech.  This is a natural letdown spot for the Eagles, who are also gassed at this point.  The last thing they want to do is try to stop Army's triple-option, which is no fun for opposing defenses.

Boston College is going to be without second-leading receiver Ryan O'Keefe, who left last game with a neck injury.  He has 23 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles this season.  They could also be without top RB Kye Robichaux, who has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns this season.  He sat out last game and is questionable to play Army Saturday.

I think the fact that Boston College came back against Florida State a few weeks ago and made a game of it is giving them more credit than they deserve.  That was the only game they covered the spread all season as they are 1-4 ATS.  The Eagles lost outright as 8-point home favorites to Northern Illinois and barely beat FCS Holy Cross 31-28 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Boston College is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Jeff Hafley is 0-7 ATS in road games on turf as the coach of Boston College.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Wisconsin UNDER 44.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Rutgers and Wisconsin Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 40's with 18 MPH crosswinds at Camp Randall Stadium.  Both teams are going to be looking to keep the ball on the ground in this one, and that's going to keep the clock moving and favor this UNDER bet.

Of course, both teams already are run-heavy.  Rutgers averages 41 rush attempts per game compared to 22 passing, while Wisconsin averages 37 rush attempts per game compared to 32 passing.  Both teams are elite against the run.  Rutgers only allows 99 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while Wisconsin allows 117 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

A big reason for Rutgers' resurgence this season is defense as they allow 12.8 points per game, 268 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  Wisconsin only allows 19.8 points per game despite facing a tough schedule of opposing offenses that includes Washington State, Purdue and Georgia Southern.

Rutgers ranks 128th out of 133 teams in pace at 30.6 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Scarlet Knights will try to slow this one down and limit possessions as well.  Wisconsin has been going a little faster than normal this season ranking 50th, but I don't expect that to be the case Saturday given the weather conditions.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games, including 7-0 UNDER In its last seven road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  Rutgers is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine road games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER 43.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER 43.5 between Nebraska and Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to keep the clock moving.  Both teams prefer to run the ball anyway.

Nebraska averages just 18.8 points per game this season.  The Huskers average 38 rush attempts compared to 22 pass attempts per game.  Illinois averages 21.6 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini average 33 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts per game.  Nebraska ranks 114th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 28.7 seconds in between plays.  They will slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Last year, Illinois won 26-9 at Nebraska for just 35 combined points.  The Fighting Illini held the Huskers to just 250 total yards and forced four turnovers.  Nebraska held Illinois to 369 total yards and has a great defense this season, allowing just 325.6 yards per game and 4.8 per play.  Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.

The UNDER is 19-9 in Bret Bielema's 28 games at Illinois. Matt Rhule is 15-5 UNDER after a game where they forced no turnovers as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +3.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to favor the Cornhuskers.

Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.  They lost that game 44-19 at Purdue, which has lost at home to Fresno State and Syracuse, so that loss looks even worse now.

It's a good 'buy low' spot on Nebraska coming off a 45-7 loss to Michigan.  The Wolverines just played keepaway in that game and their stout run defense caused Nebraska problems.  It wasn't as lopsided as the final score as Michigan only outgained Nebraska by 131 yards.  Michigan averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 6.6 yards per play for Nebraska.

Illinois only beat Toledo by 2 at home and FAU by 6 at home for its two wins this season en route to a 2-3 start.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They have been grossly overvalued after a great season last year, but they lost a ton of talent from that team and aren't close to that team.

Since both teams are going to have to keep the ball on the ground, the matchup favors Nebraska.  The Huskers average 209 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Illinois averages 144 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Nebraska only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Illinois allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.

Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after having fewer than 26 possessions minutes and fewer than 13 first downs last game.  Illinois is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Rhule is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in three of his last four games as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* Bears/Commanders NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders.  The weather looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 5 MPH winds.  These two defenses will make these two offenses look like two of the best in the NFL tonight.

The Bears have lost 14 consecutive games while allowing at least 25 points in all 14 games for the first time in NFL history.  The Bears came into the season with the least-talented defense in the NFL, and injuries have made them even worse.  They are allowing 34.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

Washington has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games.  The Commanders are allowing 30.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  Both defenses are tired as well as the Bears blew a 28-7 lead to the Broncos last week with their defense on the field the entire second half, and the Commanders going to OT with the Eagles.  The effect is maximized with this being a short week on Thursday Night Football.

Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after blowing that lead to the Broncos last week.  He led the Bears to 471 total yards.  Fields went 28-of-35 passing for 335 yards with four touchdowns and two turnovers.  His elusiveness will be huge against this Washington defensive line, which is the strength of their defense.  Washington's secondary is not good.

The Commanders have scored 31 and 35 points in two of their last three games coming in.  Sam Howell went 29-of-41 for 290 yards with one touchdown and no picks against a very good Philadelphia defense last week.  He is also elusive, rushing for 40 yards on six carries against the Eagles as well.  He has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league this season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games overall dating back to last season, including 4-0 this season.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in 13 of those 15 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* WKU/LA Tech ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +6.5

Western Kentucky is 3-0 at home this season with wins over South Florida, Houston Baptist and Middle Tennessee.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Hilltoppers.  They lost 63-10 at Ohio State and 27-24 at Troy in a misleading final.  They were outgained 288 to 521 by the Trojans, or by 233 total yards.

Louisiana Tech is 3-3 this season including 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points to North Texas in overtime.  They won 24-10 on the road at UTEP last week.  They were also competitive in a 28-14 road loss at Nebraska with their only real blowout loss coming on the road at SMU.  I expect them to be in this game for four quarters against an overrated Western Kentucky team.

I love the numbers LA Tech has posted this season on a yards per play basis, which is arguably the most important stat in all of college football.  LA Tech averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows just 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to Western Kentucky, which averages 5.6 yards per play on offense and allows 6.3 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see why I'm on the home underdog here.

The weakness of the Bulldogs is their run defense, which is allowing 226 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their pass defense, which is allowing just 152 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for them considering Western Kentucky has no running game and relies heavily on its passing attack.  The Hilltoppers only average 97 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry compared to 286 passing yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.

Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road game.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Tech) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent with two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Thursday.

25* MLB Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -149

The Tampa Bay Rays lost Game 1 of this series thanks in large part to 4 errors on defense and an absolute gem of a game from Texas starter Jordan Montgomery.  Look for them to bounce back with a much better effort at the plate and defensively in Game 2 to square this series today.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound in this one behind Zach Eflin, who is 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Eflin has been at his best at home, going 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 18 home starts this season, and the Rays are 14-4 in those 18 home starts.

Nathan Eovaldi has been an absolute gas can for the Rangers since returning from injury on September 5th as he clearly hasn't been right.  Unfortunately, with DeGrom, Scherzer and Gray out, he has been forced back into action.  Eovaldi is 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings while not making it past the 5th inning in any start.  He won't go deep into this one, and Tampa Bay will get into this shaky Texas bullpen early as a result.

The Rays are 23-7 (+11.1 Units) in Eflin's 30 starts as a favorite this season, and 12-3 (+8.1 Units) in his 15 starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  It's bounce back time for the home team in Game 2 today.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* MLB Playoffs Opener on Tampa Bay Rays -146

The Texas Rangers blew the AL West on the final day of the regular season.  Now they have to play in the wild card round, which is a big disadvantage as opposed to getting a bye to the next round like the Houston Astros did.  I think they are shook after getting shut out 1-0 by the Mariners on Sunday, who had nothing to play for.

In fact, the Rangers have been really struggling at the plate of late.  They have scored 0, 0 and 2 runs in three of their last four games coming in with the AL West on the line.  They choked to close out the season losing three of four at Seattle, and they aren't ready for this big-time spot here.  It will be the Rangers' first time in the postseason since 2016.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been here and done that.  They are used to going to playoffs, and this spot will not be intimidating to them like it will be for the Rangers.  The Rays have been playing stress-free baseball for a few games now locked into the 4th seed in the AL.

I also believe the Rays have a big advantage on the mound in Game 1 of this series.  Tyler Glasnow is 10-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Glasnow owns the Rangers, going 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 0.559 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners in 19 2/3 innings with 26 K's.  Jordan Montgomery does not enjoy facing the Rays, going 4-4 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Tampa Bay.  

The Rays are hitting .279 and scoring 6.0 runs per game vs. left-handed starters like Montgomery this season.  Montgomery's teams are 1-11 in his 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game this season.  Tampa Bay is 20-4 vs. poor base running teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019.  Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4.  This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley.

The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards.  You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game.  And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers.  Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense.

No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total.  But both of those teams were missing key players defensively.  They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1.  This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night.

The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far.  Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled.  Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense.  Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year.  Having him back will be a game changer for them.  Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well.

These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points.  Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle.  The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season.  They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket.  They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better.

I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week.  The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone.  It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys.

The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior.  The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is.  Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes.

While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense.  This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks.  They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys.  

Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys.  The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB.  They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game.

The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total.  The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year.  But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting.  Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first.  So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals.  I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one.

These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points.  In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game.  And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points.  They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill.

This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense.  The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks.  They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week.  S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well.  The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense.

After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks.  They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing.  They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game.

The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts.  Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua.  But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins.  They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well.

Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium.  Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Falcons/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3

This feels like a great spot to back the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off two consecutive losses, so they will be focused and ready to go in London.  I also like the fact that they play in London every year, so this is essentially a home game for them.  Fans have adopted this team like their own so it will feel like a home game as well.

The Jaguars were beaten by the Chiefs 17-9 at home two weeks ago.  They just failed in the red zone time after time and couldn't get anything going.  But last week's 20-point home loss to Houston provides us with an opportunity to 'buy low' on the Jaguars this week.  Now everyone is writing them off, which is exactly the time I like to back teams in the NFL.

Especially teams like the Jaguars who have a lot of talent and are better than the last score showed.  The 20-point loss to Houston was very misleading.  They actually outgained the Texans by 38 yards and had 404 total yards of offense, but only 17 points to show for it.  They gave up an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to a fullback, which was absolutely insane.

Now the Jaguars get to face the Falcons, who are overvalued due to their 2-1 start this season.  They beat the Panthers in the opener, who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They came back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Packers at home in Week 2.  The Packers were missing several key players in that game.  Then in their first road game of the season, the Falcons were blasted 20-6 on the road by the Lions.

There was nothing misleading about that loss to the Lions.  They were outgained by 175 yards by the Lions.  Their offense was held to just 183 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.  They are a one-dimensional running team with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league with Desmond Ridder.  He is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season with two touchdowns and one interception.  He just doesn't threaten opposing defenses with the downfield passes.

That makes this a great matchup for the Jaguars.  While they have been susceptible against the pass defensively this season, they have been great against the run.  The Jaguars are only allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season.  They will be able to bottle up the run just like Detroit did, and that will be the key to them getting the win and cover here against the Falcons.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday morning.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Royals OVER 9

Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City tonight.  Conditions were similar last night, and I took advantage and backed the OVER 9 in a 12-5 victory and 17 combined runs.  I'm back on the OVER 9 in Game 2 today.

Clarke Schmidt is 9-9 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 31 starts this season for the Yankees.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 5-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  Schmidt allowed 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against Kansas City this season.

The Royals are going to make this a bullpen game after opening with Steven Cruz.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.27 ERA and 1.485 WHIP on the season, including a 5.34 ERA and 1.545 WHIP at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Houston/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

This is the Donovan Smith revenge game.  He was replaced at QB at Texas Tech by Tyler Shough last year.  Well, Shough just suffered a broken fibula last week in a 20-13 loss at Virginia Tech.  Backup QB Behren Morton was atrocious against WVU, completing just 13-of-37 passes for 158 yards in the loss.  

The Red Raiders cannot be favored by double-digits given their QB situation.  Even Morton was banged up and didn't practice all week, so they could be down to a third-stringer and possibly a wildcat offense.  A lot of their offense has come from Shough on the ground as he has rushed for 149 yards this season.  The Red Raiders are in a world of hurt at QB right now.

Smith is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 years with five touchdowns and three interceptions for Houston this season.  He has also rushed for 104 yards and three scores.  The Cougars showed a lot of resiliency by crushing Sam Houston State 38-7 as 11.5-point favorites last week.  They had 538 total yards against a very good Sam Houston State defense.  Sam Houston played BYU, Air Force and Jacksonville State much tougher than they did Houston.

It's also a revenge game for Houston in general after losing five consecutive meetings in this series all by 17 points or fewer, including a 33-30 loss last year as 4-point road dogs.  Given the situation, I think Texas Tech with a backup QB is ripe to get upset here by their former QB and the Cougars.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Indiana/Maryland Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +14.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana after needing OT to beat Akron as a 16-point home favorite last week.  Akron is better than they get credit for, but it was a clear flat spot for the Hoosiers off a tough 21-14 loss to Louisville the previous week, and with Maryland on deck.  Indiana also lost 23-3 to Ohio State in the opener, so they have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

They have played a much tougher schedule than Maryland, which is overvalued after a 4-0 start to the season.  They beat Towson, Charlotte and Virginia at home before going on the road and topping Michigan State, which is a program in turmoil firing Mel Tucker two weeks ago.  But a closer look at the box scores of the Virginia and Michigan State games shows misleading finals, and those misleading finals have the Terrapins overvalued.

Maryland actually trailed Virginia 14-0.  That was a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter, yet they won by 28.  They only outgained Virginia by 107 yards, and that's a terrible Virginia team.  Last week's 31-9 win at Michigan State was a 12-point game until the Terrapins added 10 points in the 4th quarter.  Michigan State actually outgained Maryland by 14 yards as well, but committed five turnovers, which was the difference.

Indiana is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Maryland.  The three losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.  So they haven't even come close to losing by this kind of margin to Maryland in any of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

We see it every year with Maryland.  Take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule early then get buried in conference play and struggle to make a bowl game.  The Terrapins also have Ohio State on deck neck week, so they could be looking ahead to that potential battle of unbeatens.

Maryland is 32-58 ATS in its last 90 games following a conference win, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a conference win by 21 points or more.  Mike Locksley is 11-21 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Maryland.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday BLOWOUT on Toronto Blue Jays -113

The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the top wild card spot in the American League as the Orioles already clinched the division.  I don't expect them to offer much resistance to the Blue Jays, and they didn't in Game 1 with Toronto winning 11-4.

The Blue Jays are still trying to clinch a wild card spot and could do so today with a win and some help.  But either way, they have the motivational advantage and will have a massive home-field advantage with fans turning out to try and push them over the top to clinch.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 3-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in five home starts this season.  I'll gladly back him over Shawn Armstrong and the Rays, who are going to be making this a bullpen game and likely won't be using their best arms since this game is meaningless for them.  Bet the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

15* Rangers/Mariners AL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

I expect both the Rangers and Mariners to get their bats going today.  I think since yesterday ended in a 3-2 pitcher's duel, this total has been set too low.  There's clear value on the OVER 7.5 runs tonight.

Bryan Woo is 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts for the Mariners this season.  Woo is 0-2 with a 20.26 ERA and 2.814 WHIP in two starts against the Rangers this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 1/3 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi is a shell of his former self since coming back from injury.  He is 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.  Eovaldi allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 9-8 win over Seattle in his last start on September 24th.

Texas is 16-2 OVER in its last 18 games after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Yankees/Royals OVER 9

There are expected to be double-digit wins blowing out to left tonight in Kansas City with temps in the 80's.  Conditions will be ripe for scoring runs and aiding us in cashing this OVER ticket, especially with these two gas cans on the mound.

Jordan Lyles is 5-17 with a 6.13 ERA in 30 starts for the Royals this season with a whopping 38 homers allowed.  Lyles allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Yankees in his lone start against them this season.

Carlos Rodon is 3-7 with a 5.74 ERA in 13 starts this season and 14 homers allowed in only 64 1/3 innings.  Rodon has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.

The OVER is 12-2 in Lyle's last 14 starts after allowing zero earned runs in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Louisville/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville -3

The Louisville Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams in the country under Jeff Brohm.  He is just a winner everywhere he has gone, and now he has his dream job coaching for the team he used to play for.  Louisville is rapidly improving since trailing Georgia Tech 28-13 at halftime in the opener.

The Cardinals stormed back for a 39-34 victory, and that win looks even better now after Georgia Tech gave Ole Miss all they could handle on the road while also upsetting Wake Forest on the road.  They beat Murray State 56-0, jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on Indiana, which played Ohio State tough, and then crushed Boston College 56-28 last week.  That's a Boston College team that only lost by 2 to Florida State.

The key to Brohm's quick success was luring QB Jack Plummer from Cal to join him.  Plummer is completing 67% of his passes for 1,120 yards with a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 100 yards and another score.  He leads a Louisville offense that is averaging 43.0 points per game, 543 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  The defense is giving up just 19.0 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.6 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the country.

Compare that to NC State, which is averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Wolfpack are getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play despite facing a similar strength of schedule to Louisville.  The offense just hasn't been very good since losing QB Leary to Kentucky and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, and this is one of the worst defenses of the Dave Doeren era.

The 24-14 win at UConn in the opener looks really bad after UConn lost 35-14 to Georgia State, was upset 24-17 by FIU, and got blasted 41-7 by Duke.  NC State then lost 45-24 at home to Notre Dame before topping lowly VMU 45-7.  And last weeks 24-21 win at 8-point favorites at Virginia was very concerning when you look at the box score.  

Virginia actually outgained NC State 384 to 319, or by 65 total yards.  Armstrong went 15-of-30 passing for 180 yards and rushed 15 times in a very physical game against his former team.  I question how much he has left in the tank on this short week against a Louisville team that made easy work against Boston College last week and should be fresh after resting starters in the 4th quarter.

NC State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Doeren is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of NC State.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference game.  Bet Louisville Friday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +2

The Green Bay Packers have had this game circled all offseason.  The Detroit Lions beat them in Week 18 last year to keep them out of the playoffs.  In fact, they swept the season series and have lost three consecutive games to the Lions overall.  It's safe to say they won't be lacking any motivation here Thursday night.

These short weeks really favor the home teams.  Green Bay has zero travel involved after beating the Saints at home Sunday to improve to 2-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road at Atlanta after blowing a 12-point lead.  The Packers have the rest and travel advantage as a result with the Lions having to fly in from Detroit on a short week.

The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the opener on the road.  They haven't had Aaron Jones or Christian Watson either of the last two games, but both are expected to return.  That gives Jordan Love his two biggest playmakers on the field at the same time for the first time all season.  What he has done thus far without these two has been very impressive.  He has a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  I think Love is much better than he gets credit for.

This Green Bay defense also looks improved and is much healthier than the offense.  Plus, not only did Jones and Watson return to practice this week, but their top CB in Jaire Alexander returned to practice this week as well.  There's a good chance they get all three of these players back, which are three of the very best players on the entire roster.

Speaking of injuries, the Lions have a laundry list of them.  FB Cabinda and RG Vaitai and RT Nelson are out on offense, while LT Decker, LG Jackson and RB Montgomery are all questionable.  FS Joseph missed last game with a hip injury and is questionable to return this week.  This isn't a very good Detroit defense as it is, and that was evident when they gave up 37 points to Seattle two weeks ago.  I think they are being overvalued here as road favorites off their home win over the Falcons last week.

The Packers have clearly been undervalued this season and are getting no respect here once again as this line has flipped favorites.  In fact, the Packers have flipped from favorites to underdogs for three consecutive games now.  They were -1.5 to +3 against the Falcons and covered in a 1-point loss.  They were -2 to +1.5 against the Saints last week and covered in a 1-point win.  They improved to 3-0 ATS this season.  They went from -1.5 to +2 as of this writing in this game as well.

Green Bay is 28-4 SU in its last 32 home meetings with Detroit.  The Packers have arguably the best home-field advantage in the entire NFL, and that's not being factored enough into this line. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in Green Bay since 1986 when the Packers have had their starting QB healthy.  The Lions are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as road favorites.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Temple/Tulsa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -3

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in good hands with head coach Kevin Wilson.  He was the head coach at Indiana for six seasons and was Ohio State's offensive coordinator over the past six seasons.  That was a tremendous hire for the program, and he's going to turn this thing around sooner rather than later.

Tulsa has done a good job of getting to 2-2 thus far considering they were underdogs in three of their four games.  After opening with a 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Golden Hurricane faced two national title contenders in Washington and Oklahoma, and it went about as expected with blowout losses.  They then upset Northern Illinois 22-14 as 4-point road underdogs last week.

Now they host Temple, which has been extremely disappointing thus far.  They have played a much softer schedule than Tulsa to this point and are also 2-2.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 home win over Akron in the opener as 9.5-point favorites.  They were blasted 36-7 at Rutgers, which is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They blew out Norfolk State 41-9 as 31.5-point home favorites before getting blowing out 41-7 at home by Miami as 23-point dogs.

Tulsa beat Temple 27-16 as 13.5-point road favorites last year and 44-10 as 22-point home favorites in 2021.  Now we are only having to lay 3 points with Tulsa at home, which compared to those previous two spreads in this series is clearly a discount.

Tulsa wants to run the football, and Temple cannot stop the run.  Tulsa averages 170 rushing yards per game on 46 attempts.  They are going to run it, run it again and keep running it.  That's especially the case knowing they are up against a weak Temple run defense that is allowing 200 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane only allow 125 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season despite the brutal schedule.  They will win the battle at the line is scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles will clinch the AL East with a win today and are going for their 100th win on the season.  That motivation, and the fact that they keep coming up clutch with four consecutive victories coming in, means they should be a bigger favorite today.  

That's especially the case considering they are facing the tanking Red Sox, who are 4-16 in their last 20 games overall and have scored 5 runs or fewer in 14 of their last 15 games.  They've been held to 3 runs or fewer in four of their last five games.

Chris Sale 6-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 19 starts for the Red Sox this season.  Sale is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season alone, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.

The Orioles are 23-8 (+16.9 Units) in Dean Kremer's 31 starts this season as he has been the most profitable starter to back in all of baseball.  Baltimore is 14-2 in Kremer's last 16 starts as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-2 in Kremer's last 14 starts overall.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

15* Astros/Mariners AL West ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +110

The Houston Astros are choking away the division and their chances of making the playoffs.  They are having that World Series hangover here down the stretch.  The Astros are 4-10 in their last 14 games overall with seven losses to the Royals and A's, the two worst teams in the American League.  They cannot be trusted as a favorite right now.

Framber Valdez allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Royals in his last start.  Valdez allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings to the Mariners in his last start against them as well.

Bryce Miller is 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.  Miller has owned the Astros in two starts against them this season, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.487 WHIP while pitching 12 1/3 shutout innings and allowing only 6 base runners.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on New York +110

The New York Yankees are one of the few teams eliminated from the playoffs that are playing for pride here down the stretch.  They are motivated to keep their streak of 30 consecutive winning seasons going, and they sit at 79-77 after going 4-1 in their last five games overall despite facing playoff contenders in Toronto and Arizona.

It's rare you'll get the opportunity to back AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole as an underdog, and we'll take advantage of that opportunity today.  Cole is 14-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Cole owns the Blue Jays, going 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.  He has faced the Blue Jays three times this season, allowing just one earned run in 19 2/3 innings for a minuscule 0.46 ERA.

Jose Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA in 31 starts this season and has bounced back well after last season's disaster, but he's getting too much respect here.  Berrios does not enjoy facing the Yankees, going 3-6 with a 4.96 ERA in 12 career starts against them.  That includes 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in six of his last seven starts against New York.

The Yankees are 12-1 in Cole's 13 starts after he allowed one earned runs or fewer in his last start this season.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -119

The Tampa Bay Rays are still trying to chase down the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.  They have a great chance to gain some ground here playing the Boston Red Sox, who have been dead for weeks.  The Red Sox are 4-15 in their last 19 games overall and have scored a total of 5 runs in their last three games.  They have scored 5 runs or fewer in 13 consecutive games.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Tyler Glasnow, who is 9-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 20 starts this season with a whopping 153 K's in 115 innings.  Glasnow is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs with 36 K's in 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA in his last four starts against the Red Sox.

Brayan Bello is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three starts for the Red Sox.  Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in those four starts.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +160

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall despite being underdogs in all 11 games.  They have scored 6 or more runs in eight of those 11 games and are hot at the plate.  I have recently cashed them as +234, +234, +205 underdog and I'm not about to jump off the train now.

Zack Greinke has a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals.  Greinke loves facing the Tigers, going 12-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 31 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against Detroit for a 1.69 ERA.

Reese Olson is the likely starter for the Tigers in this one.  He is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 10 home starts while allowing 29 earned runs and 11 homers in 52 1/3 innings.  Olson allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, and 2 homers in 6 innings in his lone start against Kansas City this season.

Detroit is 1-9 in its last 10 home games following five or more consecutive road games.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Guardians OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be around 70 with 11 MPH winds blowing out to left to help improve home run chances.  This total was already too low with these two starting pitchers going tonight, and that's especially the case with the forecast.

Gas can Lucas Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts this season while allowing a whopping 37 homers.  Giolito is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against the Reds, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings.  

Hunter Greene is 4-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 20 starts for the Reds this season.  Don't be surprised if the Reds cover this total on their own, but I expect the Guardians to chip in as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Giants UNDER 7

NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell goes for the Padres tonight.  Snell is 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 31 starts this season with a whopping 227 K's in 174 innings.  Snell has pitched 13 shutout innings while allowing only 2 base runners in his last two starts.

Snell owns the Giants, going 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has pitched 18 shutout innings with 27 K's in his last three starts against San Francisco.  The Giants have been held to 2 runs or fewer in four of their last five games overall.

Ace Logan Webb goes for the Giants tonight.  Webb is 6-6 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  Webb is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight career starts against San Diego.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Padres.

The Padres are 8-0 in Snell's eight starts vs. a NL team with a .315 OBP or worse this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Eagles/Bucs NFC No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season.  They are scoring 29.5 points per game.  They will get what they want against this Tampa Bay defense to lead the way in us cashing the OVER tonight.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are improved on offense this season behind Baker Mayfield, who has more weapons now than he ever has in his career.  Mayfield is a gun slinger who will make plenty of plays, but who is also susceptible to turnovers and easy scores for the Eagles.

Mayfield will be up against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that is allowing 378.0 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season to the Patriots and Vikings.  CB Maddox is out, LB Dean is out and DT Davis and DE Sweat are both questionable to play Monday.  Several other players are playing through injury on defense.

I think the Bucs are allowing 5.7 yards per play defensively this season.  The Vikings should have scored more on them in them in the opener but turned it over three times.  The Bucs also have injury concerns on defense with LB Dennis and DL Kancey out, plus LB White, DL Vea and CB Davis II all questionable.

Both defenses are vulnerable with injuries and both offenses are healthy and thriving in the early going this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cowboys/Cardinals OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys have scored at total of 70 points in their first two games for an average of 35.0 points per game.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them get to their season average again here against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Cardinals made Daniel Jones look like Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week in their 31-28 loss to the Giants.  They have injuries up and down their defense, and now they are a tired defense after being on the field so much in the second half last week.

No question the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have played Jones and the Giants and Zach Wilson and a dead Jets offense without Aaron Rodgers.  They just lost CB Travon Diggs to a torn ACL in practice this week.

Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for this Arizona offense, which is better than it gets credit for.  They put up 16 points on a very good Washington defense in Week 1, and then 28 points and 379 total yards against the Giants last week.  I expect them to put up enough points on the Cowboys to help us cash this OVER ticket.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Arizona.  The Cowboys and Cardinals have combined for at least 45 points in four consecutive meetings and six of their last seven meetings.  A big reason for that is because these games are always played indoors in perfect conditions.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bears/Chiefs OVER 47

The Kansas City Chiefs played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Chicago Bears down to 47.

This Kansas City offense has been held in check through two weeks.  Injuries and turnovers hurt them in Week 1 against the Lions, and turnovers and red zone failures hurt them in Week 2 against the Jaguars.  I think the Chiefs are looking to make a statement this week on offense, and I expect them to hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears allowed 38 points to the Packers in Week 1 and 27 points and 437 total yards to the Bucs in Week 2.  Their defensive coordinator resigned, they already lack talent at every level defensively, and now they are missing a few of their best defensive players due to injury.  What a mess.  They are without CB Kyler Gordon and likely to be without S Eddie Jackson this week.  The Chiefs are going to score 30-plus points on the Bears to bust out of their funk and help pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bears should get to 17-plus against the Chiefs.  They scored 20 on the Packers in the opener and 17 on the Bucs last week.  But Justin Fields has been thinking too much and taking negative plays as a result.  He has stated this week that he's going to get back to being himself and play on instincts, which is when he and the Bears are much better.  That means he's going to run a lot more, and the Chiefs struggle against running quarterbacks.  Look for Fields to play his best game of the season this week for the Bears, who are much healthier on offense than defense.  

Conditions in Kansas City look good for a shootout Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, only a 26% chance of precipitation and only 8.5 MPH winds.  This total has been suppressed due to Kansas City going under the total in their first two games this season.  We'll take advantage of the value and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-121)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in five consecutive games and a total of 39 runs in those five games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against the lowly Colorado Rockies, who have lost six consecutive games coming in.

Jordan Wicks is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in five starts for the Cubs this season.  Wicks held the Rockies to one run and 4 base runners in 6 innings in Colorado on September 11th earlier this month in his lone career start against them.

He'll be opposed by Ty Blach, who is 3-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 11 starts.  Blach is 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.195 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings.  Blach has posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-42 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-15 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog and Game 2 as a +240 underdog.  I was on them in both games, and I'll back them again today.

Hunter Brown has no business being this big of a favorite over the Royals.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  The Astros are 5-9 (-9.9 Units) in Brown's 14 home starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall despite being underdogs in all 10 games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those 10 games and are hot at the plate.

The Royals will stay hot at the plate against the overrated Hunter Bown.  He is 10-12 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in his last start, which also came at home.

The Royals will be going with opener Steven Cruz in this one before turning it over to their bullpen, which has a 5.21 ERA and 1.477 WHIP on the season.  The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games and are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They should get their bats going as well.

Houston is 17-4 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Indianapolis Colts +8

This looks like a great time to 'sell high' on the Baltimore Ravens.  They have won and covered each of their first two games this season.  They were far less dominant than the 25-9 score against Houston in the opener would indicate.  They were actually outgained by the Texans in that game and held to 265 total yards.

Last week the Ravens upset the Bengals 27-24 as 3-point road underdogs.  But the Bengals lost by 21 to Cleveland in the opener and have been a disaster to start the season.  Joe Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in the loss and may not play this week.  The Bengals are a mess.  So those two wins don't look that great now.

The Colts deserved to cover in their opener against the Jaguars, but lost 31-21 as they failed to get it in from the 1-yard line in the final seconds and blew a 4-point 4th quarter lead.  Then last week the Colts jumped out to a 31-10 lead on the Texans before calling off the dogs.  The 31-20 final wasn't indicative of how lopsided this game was.

QB Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion early in that game, and the Colts didn't miss a beat with Gardner Minshew, who is arguably the best backup QB in the NFL.  Minshew went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The Colts will be fine with Minshew is Richardson cannot play Sunday, and it might actually be an upgrade.

The Ravens want to run the ball, and the Colts have been stout against the run this far.  They are only allowing 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  I think their defense can keep them in this game for four quarters, and whoever is under center will make enough plays to keep this a one-score game either way.  I just think this line should be a touchdown or less, so we are getting some line value at +8.

Like clockwork, the Ravens have a ton of injuries here early in the season again.  They are without RB Dobbins and CB Humphrey.  RB Hill, LT Stanley, C Linderbaum, LB Oweh and S Williams are all questionable.  I think these cluster injuries will catch up to them this week finally.

This is a trap spot for the Ravens.  They are coming off their double-revenge win over the Bengals as they had that game circled after losing in Week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs to the Bengals.  They have been thinking about this game all offseason.  Now they have two division road games against the Browns and Steelers on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for the Ravens, another reason they may not bring their best effort.

Plays on road teams (Indianapolis) - after playing their last game on the road in September games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Teams aren't tired this early in the season, so these back-to-back road games don't affect them nearly as much as they would later in the season.  This has actually been a very profitable spot to back these back-to-back road teams early.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Jaguars OVER 44

The Jacksonville Jaguars played in the lowest-scoring game of the Week 2 with a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  That game also had the highest total at 50.5.  Because that game went so far under the total, we are now getting value with the OVER this week with this total against the Houston Texans down to 44.

That game against the Chiefs was a bit of an aberration.  Both teams struggled in the red zone and with turnovers.  But the Jaguars will get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL this week, which is what they looked like in Week 1 when they beat the Colts 31-21 for 51 combined points.  There's simply too much talent on this offense to hold them down for long.

Speaking of the Colts, the Texans just played them last week and lost 31-20 for 51 combined points.  The Colts did whatever they wanted to on offense and jumped out to a huge lead before calling off the dogs.  The Texans showed they could still move the football and score late, which is what I could see happening again here to help us cash this OVER.

CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts last week and took a big step forward from Week 1 against the Ravens to that performance.  He has some underrated targets on the outside in Collins, Dell and Woods, and he has a great running back in Damien Pierce.  This Texans offense I think is underrated right now.

The problem for Houston is all their injuries on defense right now.  They could potentially be without four of their top five defensive backs.  They have injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line as well.  They have the longest injury list of any team in the NFL right now, and almost all of them are on defense.  It looks as though they will get their best offensive linemen in Laremy Tunsil back from injury this week as well.  

Conditions in Jacksonville will be perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, a 5% chance of precipitation and only 6.5 MPH winds forecasted.  I expect the Jaguars to score 30-plus in this one and the Texans to get 20-plus to easily cash this OVER 44 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Deshaun Watson single-handedly cost the Browns a win last week.  He was 22-of-40 passing and had a couple costly offensive facemask penalties trying to stiff arm guys.  He also handed the Steelers two defensive touchdowns.  He's clearly not the guy he was in Houston. He is 4-4 as a starter in Cleveland with a 9-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  There's too much on Watson's shoulders moving forward.

Now the Browns are without their best offensive player in Nick Chubb after a gruesome knee injury.  I just don't think this team laying more than a field goal to the Titans.  They do have a great defense, but keep in mind they played a broken Bengals offense and a broken Steelers offense.  They also have a much worse injury situation than the Titans right now.

Mike Vraebel is the underdog king.  He actually has a winning record SU as an underdog in his career at 24-22 SU.  Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  The Titans just have a way of making games close and winning them late with great coaching.  Each of their first two games this season were decided by a combined 4 points.

The Titans have a very good defense this season that will keep them in games.  They are stout against the run, and the Browns want to run the football even without Chubb.  The Titans still have a great rushing attack with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill was much sharper last week completing 20-of-24 passes to bounce back from his 3-interception performance against the Saints.  He led the Titans to a 27-24 (OT) win over the Chargers to bounce back from the 1-point loss to the Saints.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing on Monday Night Football since 1992.  So the Browns are on a short week as well, only adding to the tough spot for them.  Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss in the first half of the season are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to PK.  Bet the Titans Friday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Astros OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

J.P. France is getting too much respect from the books with this low 9-run total.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.

The Astros have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They will get to Jordan Lyles, who is 2-9 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against Houston this season.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  Lyles is 11-2 OVER in his last 13 starts vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game in the second half of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +234

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 7 or more runs in seven of those nine games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They have been a real thorn in Houston's side and are taking pride in it.  They won Game 1 as a +210 underdog last night.  I took them in that game, and I'm back on them again today.

J.P. France has no business being this big of a favorite.  He is 5-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 11 home starts this season.  France faced the Royals on the road in his last start on September 16th and allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 defeat.  

Jordan Lyles has been respectable against Houston, going 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in seven career starts against the Astros.  He'll keep them in this game while their bats stay hot against France.  The value is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/A's OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-3 in Tigers last nine games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in five of those nine games and 4 or more in six of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in A's last four games overall and we've seen 9 or more combined runs in all four games.

Gas can Joey Wentz goes for the Tigers today.  He is 1-10 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in 18  starts this season.  He'll be opposed by an opener for the A's followed by their god awful bullpen.  The A's have a 5.24 ERA and 1.505 WHIP as a bullpen this season.

Temps will be approaching 70 in Oakland today with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-107)

The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and a total of 33 runs in those four games.  They are red hot at the plate, which is why I'm willing to take them on the Run Line today against gas can Chris Flexen and the awful Colorado Rockies.

Marcus Stroman is 10-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 23 starts for the Cubs this season, including 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Stroman is 4-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in six career starts against Colorado.

Flexen is 1-8 with a 7.70 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.99 ERA and 2.187 WHIP in five road starts.  Flexen is 0-1 with a 12.92 ERA and 3.003 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs, both of which have come in 2023.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 23 base runners in 7 2/3 innings in those two starts against Chicago.

Colorado is 3-41 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 0-14 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* Boise State/San Diego State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Diego State after playing a brutal schedule to open the season.  They have actually done a good job of getting to 2-2 despite the schedule.  They beat one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in Ohio.  Their two losses have come to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9).

Now San Diego State is excited to open Mountain West Play and make a statement as a 7-point home underdog to Boise State.  I thought Boise State was was overrated coming into the season due to what they did to finish last season, making the MWC Title game only to lose to Fresno State.  They lost their offensive coordinator who was the biggest reason they made that run after the switch at QB and the switch in the offense.

That Boise State offense hasn't been the same this season.  They managed just 19 points in a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.  They managed 16 points in an 18-16 home loss to UCF, a game they should have lost by more when you consider UCF had 530 total yards on them.  They also gave up 568 total yards to Washington, so this defense clearly isn't any good.  They then allowed 18 points to North Dakota last week, and the offense only managed 394 total yards in that game.

San Diego State is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boise State with two outright upsets as 6-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  They have been a dog in all four home meetings and have held their own, and I think it will be more of the same Friday night.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas City Royals +205

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season to close out the year.  They are 7-1 in their last eight games overall despite being underdogs in all eight games.  They have scored 6 or more runs in six of those eight games and are hot at the plate.

Kansas City took two out of three from Houston just two series ago winning as +170 and +135 dogs.  They were +135 dogs with Cole Ragans, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Ragans is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 10 starts this season while allowing only 2 homers with a whopping 76 K's in 59 1/3 innings.

Framber Valdez has been overvalued all season for the Astros, especially when pitching at home.  The Astros are just 7-8 (-7.6 Units) in Valdez's 15 home starts this season.  They were nearly swept by the Orioles and A's in their last two series at home, having to win Game 3 in both just to salvage.  The value is too good to pass up on Ragans and Kansas City tonight.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +106

The Cleveland Guardians have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They cannot be favored over the Baltimore Orioles, who are battling with the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL East title.  

Shane Bieber will be making his first start since July 9th and will be on a pitch count for the Guardians.  Bieber allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings to the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

Dean Kremer is one of the many underrated starters this season for the Orioles.  They are 23-7 (+17.9 Units) in Kremer's 30 starts this season.  He has done his best work on the road at 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 12 starts away from home.

The Orioles are 12-1 in Kremer's last 13 starts.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockies/Cubs OVER 9

The Chicago Cubs have scored a total of 27 runs in their last three games.  I like their chances of staying hot at the plate against the lowly Colorado Rockies and starter Noah Davis this afternoon. Davis is 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall and 9 runs or more four times.  They should be able to get to Jameson Taillon, who is 7-10 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Taillon faced the Rockies in his last start on September 13th and allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 7-3 defeat.

Chicago is 10-0 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs this season, including 13-1 OVER after the bullpen gave up 4 or more earned runs last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Giants/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -10

The San Francisco 49ers look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks.  The New York Giants look like one of the worst teams in the NFL through two weeks.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits on the 49ers here at home against the Giants.

The 49ers dominated the Steelers 30-7 on the road in Week 1.  They gained 391 yards and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 239 yards and 3.9 per play on defense.  The 49ers then beat the Rams 30-23 on the road only after a last-second field goal at the buzzer by the Rams.  They gained 365 yards and 6.8 yards per play on offense while holding the Rams to 4.9 yards per play on defense.  Yes, the Rams outgained them, but that's only because they ran 24 more plays.  Yards per play margin is a lot more important in the NFL.

The Giants were blasted 40-0 by the Cowboys in Week 1.  They only managed 171 total yards and 2.6 yards per play on offense against the Cowboys.  Then they had what was supposed to be a 'get right' game against arguably the worst team in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals, and it was anything but.  The Giants needed to come back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win on a field goal, 31-28.  The Giants allowed 379 yards and 6.3 yards per play to the Josh Dobbs and this pitiful Arizona offense.

That comeback effort will have taken a lot out of the Giants on a short week.  They will be fatigued playing their second consecutive road game.  Meanwhile, there's basically no travel at all for the 49ers and from Los Angeles back to Santa Clara, so they will have a big advantage in rest here.

Injuries also work in the 49ers favor here.  They are remarkably healthy right now with WR Brandon Aiyuk being the only scare.  He left the Rams game with a shoulder injury, but he returned to finish the game, so you have to think he's going to give it a go Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Giants lost their best playmaker in Saquan Barkley to an ankle injury while trying to center the ball for the game-winning field goal last week.

Barkley scored two of their four touchdowns last week and this offense was already bad with him, and it's going to be very bad without him.  Backup Matt Breida only had one rush for five yards last week.  LT Andrew Thomas is questionable and LG Ben Bredeson is doubtful.  LB Micah McFadden is questionable and LB Azeez Ojulari is questionable as well.  The injuries are already starting to add up for the Giants.

San Francisco went 9-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and outscored opponents by 14.5 points per game in this spot.  The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  San Francisco is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Cubs OVER 8.5

The Cubs and Pirates went for 15 combined runs in Game 1 and 20 combined runs in Game 2.  I think we see more of the same here in Game 3 inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field with these two starters on the mound tonight.

Kyle Hendricks is 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.  Hendricks is 1-0 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

Johan Oviedo is 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 30 starts this season, 4-8 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.476 WHIP In 16 road starts, and 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in his last three starts.  Oviedo is 1-4 with a 4.14 ERA in eight career starts against Chicago.

Chicago is a perfect 9-0 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs this season, and 12-1 OVER after a game where they were hit for 4 or more earned runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Georgia State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +7

The Georgia State Panthers have been impressive in their 3-0 start this season.  Their last two games were particularly good as they beat UConn 35-14 as 3-point home favorites and Charlotte 41-25 as 4.5-point road favorites.  Their offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, 463 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They have great balance with 195 rushing yards per game and 268 passing behind senior QB Darren Grainger, who is a full-time starter for a third consecutive season.

They have the offense to keep up with Coastal Carolina, who has a first-year head coach in Tim Beck.  The 27-13 loss to UCLA was not impressive and the 30-16 win over Jacksonville State as 13.5-point home favorites was lackluster as well.  They only outgained Jacksonville State by 6 yards.  Their 66-7 win over awful Duquesne is skewing their numbers.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Georgia State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Coastal Carolina.  The Panthers won 42-40 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2021, 31-21 as 3.5-point road dogs in 2019 and 27-21 as a PK in 2017.  They are catching too many points again here on the road in a game their offense can keep them close for four quarters.

Georgia State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games on turf.  Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games, including 7-0 ATS in this spot under current head coach Shawn Elliott.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Tigers/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 17-6-2 in Dodgers last 25 games overall.  The Detroit Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last six games and a total of 34 runs in those six contests.

Reese Olson is 4-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 16 starts for the Tigers this season and averaging just 5.0 innings per start.  Bobby Miller is 10-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 19 starts for the Dodgers, including 5-2 with a 4.73 ERA in nine home starts.

The OVER is 24-5-1 in Dodgers last 30 games vs. AL opponents.  Detroit is 9-1 OVER vs. NL teams averaging 5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Orioles/Astros AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 8, 5, 8 and 9 runs in their last four games.  The Houston Astros have scored 8, 7, 7 and 5 runs in their last four games.  This total is too low for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers today.

Cristian Javier is 9-4 in spite of a 4.74 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Kyle Bradish has been good for the Orioles, but he did allow 4 earned runs in 7 innings to the Rays in his last start, and I believe the Astros will get to him today.

The OVER is 10-0 in Orioles last 10 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Texas Rangers are hitting .272 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season.  The Boston Red Sox are hitting .261 and scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season.  I expect both of these starting pitchers to struggle today.

Jon Gray is 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Gray is 0-1 with a 7.14 ERA and 2.293 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 26 base runners in 11 1/3 innings.  Bryan Bello is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 9 earned runs in 17 innings.

Texas is a perfect 10-0 OVER after a 5-game span where they had a .285 OBP or worse this season.  The Rangers are 15-2 OVER after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Tigers/Dodgers OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 17-5-2 in Dodgers last 24 games overall.  The Detroit Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games and a total of 32 runs in those five contests.

The Tigers will be going with an opener today before turning it over to their shaky bullpen.  Ryan Yarbrough has been used in several different roles for the Dodgers and likely won't go deep into this one before giving way to their bullpen.

The OVER is 24-4-1 in Dodgers last 29 games vs. AL opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Astros OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 8, 5 and 8 runs in their last three games.  The Houston Astros have scored 8, 7 and 7 runs in their last three games.  This total is too low for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Kyle Gibson is 14-9 in spite of a 4.98 ERA in 30 starts this season because he tends to get tremendous run support every time out.  Hunter Brown is 10-11 with a 4.68 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.539 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Brown allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings to the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

The OVER is 9-0 in Orioles last nine road games.  Houston is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games when revenging a one-run loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Red Sox/Rangers AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox go with Tanner Houck, who is 5-9 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Houck will be facing a Texas lineup that is hitting .273 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season.  I expect the Rangers to hang a big number on him tonight.

The Red Sox will get their runs off opener Nathan Eovaldi and this woeful Texas bullpen, which has a 4.98 ERA on the season and a 5.23 ERA at home.  Eovaldi is 0-1 with a 7.73 ERA and 2.432 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings as injury has limited him to an opener role.

Texas is 14-2 OVER after hitting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Reds OVER 9.5

The Minnesota Twins have scored at least 3 runs in eight consecutive games.  The Cincinnati Reds are 2-0 OVER in their last two games overall with 10 and 12 combined runs.  The Twins are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in four of their last five contests.

Kenta Maeda is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts for the Twins while averaging 5.1 innings per start.  Maeda is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati.  The Reds will get into their bullpen early.  Fernando Cruz is just an opener for the Reds.  The Twins will get into Cincinnati's bullpen even earlier.

The OVER is 13-3 in Maeda's last 16 road starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Minnesota is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 road games vs. a NL team with a .255 batting average or worse in the second half of the season.  Maeda is 18-5 OVER in road games vs. NL teams with a .250 average or worse in his career.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Browns/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL.  Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a 24-3 dismantling of the Bengals in the slop.  They simply own the Bengals, and Joe Burrow was rusty after just recently returning to practice, plus the slopping conditions favored the Browns.

The Steelers were 1-point favorites for this game on the lookahead line, and now they are 3-point underdogs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for one game's results, and we'll take advantage of the line value and back the motivated 0-1 home underdog here against the fat and happy 1-0 team.

The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns over the years, especially at home.  Pittsburgh is 46-12 SU against Cleveland since 1992, including 28-3 SU at home.  It's rare to find them as home underdogs to the Browns, but that's the opportunity we have been given here, and we'll take advantage.

Mike Tomlin is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Pittsburgh.  His teams are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Steelers are 53-31-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-5-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Cleveland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win by 10 points or more over a division rival.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Pittsburgh) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh in the regular season since 1993.  Finally, the Steelers are 20-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football since 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8.5

This is a very low total for a game involving Adam Wainwright.  He is 4-11 with a 7.95 ERA and 1.979 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  But I think the Cardinals are going to get to Freddy Peralta as well tonight.

Peralta just cannot figure out the Cardinals, going 1-5 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 1-4 with an 8.51 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis, allowing 23 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 16-2 in Peralta's last 18 road starts after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last start.  Milwaukee is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 6.40 ERA or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.