Winning Sports Picks

20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5

This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night.  There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH.  That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium.  Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.

Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing.  So they will be in their comfort zone.  The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12.  Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages.  So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.

Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts.  That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow.  They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game.  The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game.  They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings.  It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.

Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses.  That extra time favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4

The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength.  Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season.  When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.

Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days.  They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night.  The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA.  They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them.  The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.

The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season.  They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together.  That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.

They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot.  The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.  

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight.  They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.  If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks.  They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can.  Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn.  Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA.  The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home.  They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road.

This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries.  They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players.  The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Take the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3

The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton.  They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it.  Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4.  Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

It has gotten worse before it's going to get better.  The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move.  Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things.  And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury.  I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.

The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn.  The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.  Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play.  They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger.  And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.

Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans.  Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play.  No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play.  No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury.  And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game.  And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.

Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it.  Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times.  The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense.  Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game.  But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee.  They also throw for 246 yards per game.

The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up.  They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense.  Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks.  Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Eagles Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA.  They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record.  And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points.

The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota.  They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.

As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver.  Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch.  That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games.

The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season.  It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games.  Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points.  Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3

Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season.  The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it.  Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.

The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat.  They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage.  Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards.  Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.

Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record.  The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall.  Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition.  Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.

And that's the difference in this game.  One team can get stops while the other one can't.  Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.

These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.

Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win.  They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State.  This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal.  Bet Appalachian State Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start.  We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs.

The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee.  That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons.  But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest.

I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot.  It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days.  The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins.  The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs.  Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot.

The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets.  They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice.

It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington.  They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup.  They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Astros/Phillies World Series ANNIHILATOR on Houston -101

The Houston Astros have a big advantage on the mound over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 tonight and should square this series at 2-2 with a win as a result.  Aaron Nola has been one of the most overrated starters in baseball for years, and Christian Javier is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball this season.

Javier is 12-8 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 26 starts this season with 178 K's in 139 2/3 innings.  He has been lights out of late, going 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last five starts while firing 28 1/3 shutout innings.  He has an elite fastball so the Phillies won't be able to know what's coming like they did against McCullers and all his off-speed stuff last night.

Nola is 13-14 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 36 start this season.  He has been terrible in his last two postseason starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings for an 11.00 ERA.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 to the Astros.  They will get to him again tonight.

For a guy that gets so much love, the Phillies are just 33-35 (-12.4 Units) in Nola's 68 starts over the past two seasons.  That includes 7-18 (-13.1 Units) in Nola's 25 starts when facing a good team that outscores their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Houston is 37-14 in its last 51 games following a loss.  Take the Astros in Game 4 Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7

The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games.  They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte.

I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them.  While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night.

Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA.  That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies.  They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high.  After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start.  This is much better than a 2-6 team.

The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury.  After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton.  They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy.  And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home.  We should get their best effort here.

Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU.  They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense.  I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best.  That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.

Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game.  They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense.  And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo.  Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites.  They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.

This Central Michigan offense is broken.  The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron.  Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week.  The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy.  The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.

Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game.  The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Heat OVER 226

Two teams that have taken massive steps back defensively this season square off tonight in what should be a shootout in Miami.  The Warriors are clearly suffering a championship hangover and not playing defense, while the Heat lost their defensive leader in PJ Tucker to the 76ers in the offseason.

Golden State ranks just 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  Miami hasn't been much better, ranking 20th in allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions.  And the Warriors play a lot of possessions as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, while Miami has upped the tempo a little this season to 12th in pace.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors' seven games this season with combined scores of 232 or more points in all seven games.  They are scoring 118.7 points per game and allowing 122.0 points per game on the season.  Miami's last two games have seen 232 and 233 combined points coming into this one.

Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. Pacific Division opponents.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.  The OVER is 43-21 in Heat last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night.  Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.

Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season.  They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.

Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season.  The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average.  They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play.  This is not a good defense.

Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in.  Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.

The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Chicago ML +110

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive losses.  They have had the last two days off to get rested and ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets after last playing on Saturday.

Taking down the Nets has not been a problem this season.  Brooklyn is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS with its lone wins both coming at home over the Raptors by 4 and the Pacers by 7.  They have four losses by 9 points or more this season and just aren't forming any chemistry with Simmons, Durant and Irving.

Now the spot is a terrible one for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight.  Either way, the Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls will be able to do whatever they want to offensively.

Brooklyn is 6-32 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite.  The Nets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a good 3-point shooting team that makes at least 36% of their attempts.  Brooklyn is 13-37-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3

Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals.  I thought this line should have been higher than 3.  I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.

The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow.  Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league.  They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns.  Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores.  And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage.  They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.

The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps.  That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league.  They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards.  They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.

The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game.  Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games.  Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.  

That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett.  I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.

The Browns also have injury concerns on defense.  Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable.  Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable.  This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.  

The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert.  In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.

The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry.  The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories.  The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road.  These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season while the Nets rank 10th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 241, 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and they just combined for 241 points in their first meeting this season.

The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 23-5-1 in Nets last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason.  But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back.  And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season.  While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.  

It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs.  It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy.

The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Suns OVER 227

The Phoenix Suns are really clicking offensively this season.  They rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 114.4 points per 100 possessions.  They followed up a 134-105 win over the Warriors with a 124-111 win over the Pelicans.  De'Andre Ayton was injured early in that win over the Pelicans and will miss this game, so the Suns will have to play more of a small ball lineup, which benefits the OVER.

The Houston Rockets are once again terrible defensively this season and play at a fast pace.  The Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions.  They rank 5th in pace at 105.2 possessions per game.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Suns with combined scores of 241, 245, 204, 234, 246 and 263 points with none of those games going to overtime.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings have seen 234 or more combined points.  

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 8-1 in Rockets last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +11.5

For starters, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been more than 8.5-point underdog in his career.  That's 234 starts without being a double-digit dog.  That fact alone shows you this is a 'buy low' spot on the Packers, and we'll do just.  We'll back a Packers team that has lost three straight and failed to cover four in a row.

Rodgers is better when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he will be in that mindset this week.  Everyone is counting the Packers out playing the Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.  He will rally the troops and put forth the best effort of the season.  The Packers have had a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they'll step it up this week.

I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills.  They are coming off their bye week, but they were feeling fat and happy the last two weeks after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-20 two weeks back.  That is the game they had circled all offseason, getting revenge on a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Packers as they were to beat the Chiefs.

We've seen the Bills let teams hang around this season.  They lost 19-21 at Miami, needed a last-second FG to beat the Ravens 23-20 and beat the Chiefs 24-20.  They are beatable, and at the very least the Packers can keep this game within single-digits with the proper game plan.  

The strength of their team this year is their running game and Aaron Jones, and I expect the Packers to embrace is this week and feed the horse.  The weakness of the Bills is the interior of their defense as they can be run on.  So controlling the clock with the running game and short passes to Jones out of the backfield is a recipe for success here.  

I know the Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but they should get WR Christian Watson back this week, and Sammy Watkins is healthy as well.  Their best defender in LB Rashan Gary is upgraded to probable as well.  They are hopeful to have both T Bakhtiari and G Jenkins in the lineup as both have missed time over the past couple seasons.  The Bills will be without T Brown, CB White and S Hyde for this one.

The actual strength of the Packers this season is their defense, which allows 20.9 points per game while ranking 7th in total defense at 308.4 yards per game.  They can get enough stops here to be able to hang around while the offense methodically moves the ball down the field and keeps Buffalo's offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against home teams (Buffalo) - outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per game, after gaining 7 or more yards per pass attempt in two consecutive games are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Packers Sunday Night.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season.  The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender.  This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality.

San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage.  The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them.  They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites.  But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later.  And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage.

Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season.  They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range.  He is questionable for this one.  Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away.

Minnesota owns San Antonio.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more.  Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots ML -130

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the New England Patriots.  They were just upset 33-14 on Monday Night Football as 8.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27.5 points.  They were embarrassed, and now they'll come back highly motivated to beat a division opponent here in the New York Jets, especially since they currently reside in last place in the division.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jets, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite terrible QB play from Zach Wilson.  A great defense and RB Breece Hall and WR Cory Davis have masked Wilson's QB play.  Well, now Hall and Davis are out, so they are down their two biggest weapons on offense.  They aren't going to be able to overcome it.

The Jets have benefited from playing a rookie or backup QB in three of their four wins during this streak.  They beat Brett Rypien and the Broncos last week, Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins and a combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, who combined for four interceptions.  When they faced a real team with a legit QB, they lost by 15 to the Ravens and lost by 15 to the Bengals.

The Jets also lost their best offensive linemen in Alijah Vera-Tucker to an injury last week, and he's out along with Davis and Hall.  Hall has 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns and is irreplaceable.  So is Davis, who has 19 receptions for 351 yards and two scores to lead the team.  Wilson is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.

I like that the Patriots have announced they are going with Mac Jones moving forward.  This should put some stability into the offense, and he should be another week healthy after returning last week against the Bears before getting replaced by Zappe.  He is the more talented QB with the bigger upside, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week.

The Patriots own the Jets, going 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings with their last loss to them in 2015.  And we just need them to win straight up here.  Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 21-plus points in his previous game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Jets' luck runs out this week against a better, pissed off New England team.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week, and I think that's being factored too much into this line.  Sometimes bye weeks are great for teams to regroup, but the Eagles didn't need to regroup.  Also, the Eagles have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 3rd-toughest.  So the numbers for both teams up to this point are misleading.

The Eagles are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0 this season.  So if anything, the bye week puts a halt to their momentum.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the Cowboys going into the bye week, so they are clearly feeling fat and happy right now and not as motivated as most teams would be going into a bye week.  I think this bye week could actually be a bad thing for the Eagles.

Either way, I think the Steelers have the goods to be able to hang with the Eagles Sunday.  After upsetting the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Steelers hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week in a 16-10 road loss.  They had a chance to win that game late as their defense kept them in it.  I think Kenny Pickett is going to keep getting better with each passing start, and he could be primed for his best performance of the season this week.

The Eagles aren't really blowing anyone out.  They have just two of their six wins by double-digits.  Their last three games were all decided by 9 points or fewer.  After beating the Jaguars by 8 at home, they only beat the Cardinals by 3 on the road and were actually outgained in that game.  Their 26-17 win over the Cowboys last time out was misleading as their offense was held to 268 total yards, but they benefitted from being +3 in turnovers.

A big reason the Eagles are 6-0 is due to turnover luck.  They are +12 in turnovers through six games.  I have a hard time trusting those teams that have had the turnover luck on their side.  The Steelers have been getting healthier defensively in recent weeks and will have the proper game plan to slow down Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat ability.  No team has had more success stopping Lamar Jackson in recent seasons than the Steelers, so they know how to defend running quarterbacks.

Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the month of October.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost four consecutive games including two straight blowout losses to the Patriots 29-0 and the Cowboys 24-6.  But they were far from healthy in those last two games, and they are getting a lot of players back this week.  

The Lions were going in to take a 13-10 lead against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter but fumbled at the 1-yard line.  That completely changed the game.  They were only outgained by 18 yards by the Cowboys, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They came through with their best defensive performance of the season in limiting a potent Dallas attack to just 330 total yards.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Lions this week.  They will be getting RB DeAndre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury.  TE TJ Hockenseon and WR Josh Reynolds are healthy, as are T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnew, who are all listed as probable.  Swift rushed for 231 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per carry in the first three games this season.  St. Brown has 28 receptions for 275 yards and three scores in basically just four games of action.  Reynolds and Hockenson have also been huge for this team, combining for 47 receptions, 658 yards and five touchdowns.

The Dolphins have six of their top eight int he secondary on the injury report.  They will be without S Brandon Jones, who leads the team with 49 tackles and also has two sacks.  The Lions are going to be able to shred their defense this week.  Tua did not look great in his return to the lineup last week, leading the Dolphins to just 16 points against the Steelers.  He should have more success this week, but I liked what I saw from this Detroit defense last week.  Either way, the Dolphins shouldn't be 3.5-point favorites on the road against anyone.

The Lions are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight October games.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Detroit is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Saints +1.5

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 2-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-2 team, not a 2-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 398.3 yards per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Saints rank 14th in total defense at 340.4 yards per game and 18th at 5.6 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 2-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 6 takeaways, so they are -10 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict.

Just last week the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen is sticking with him this week.  They have extra prep time after playing the Cardinals last Thursday, which is a bonus too.

While the Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Cardinals, the Raiders are coming off a misleading 38-20 win over the Texans.  They actually gave up 404 yards to a terrible Houston offense and were outgained in that game.  But they got a 73-yard interception return for a TD late in the game that put it away, which was basically a 14-point swing.

The Raiders can't be trusted as road favorites here because they have a leaky defense.  They rank 26th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game, 24th in total defense at 366.7 yards per game and 23rd in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They also had a flu bug go through their team this week that has been a big distraction and caused players to miss practice.  That magnifies the rest and preparation advantage the Saints have had after playing last Thursday and getting 10 days to prepare for this game.

The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on the road this season.  Plays against road favorites (Las Vegas) - in a game involving two teams that allow 335 to 370 yards per game defensively, after gaining 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +17

The UCLA Bruins just suffered their 'dream crusher' loss to Oregon last week.  The Bruins entered that game 6-0 with national championship aspirations.  But the 45-30 loss crushed their dreams, and now there will be a hangover effect this week.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat following that defeat, and they certainly won't have their 'A' game, which is what it would take to cover this massive 17-point spread.

Stanford has turned around their season with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State.  They had lost four straight prior to that, but all four losses came by 18 points or fewer, including losses to USC and Oregon, which are arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12.  They lost to Oregon by 18 while UCLA lost to them by 15, both on the road, to give these teams a common opponent.

UCLA has beaten Stanford by more than 17 points just once in the last 15 meetings.  That's a 14-1 system backing the Cardinal pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Cardinal are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six trips to UCLA.  

The head-to-head history suggests this line is too big.  The hangover spot for the Bruins suggests this line is too big.  And finally, Stanford has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point, while UCLA has played the 66th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule makes the Cardinal a must bet this week.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +23

This is too many points for this rivalry game between Michigan State and Michigan.  The Spartans always take this game more seriously than the Wolverines as it's a little brother vs. big brother situation.  And we've seen that play out with the Spartans consistently pulling off upsets and keeping games a lot closer than the spread.

In fact, Michigan has just one win by more than 18 points in its last 19 meetings with Michigan State.  That makes for an 18-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 23-point spread.  While the Wolverines are clearly the better team again this year, they have no business being a 23-point favorite when you look at the head-to-head history.

I also like the fact that Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season.  The Spartans upset Wisconsin 34-28 as 7-point home underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Spartans outgained the Badgers 389 to 283, or by 106 total yards.  That win looks even better now when you consider Wisconsin crushed Northwestern 42-7 and Purdue 35-24 sandwiched around that loss to Michigan State.  The Spartans were banged up in the first half of the season, but are now as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye.

I think Michigan is getting too much respect for its 41-17 blowout victory over Penn State last time out.  But the Wolverines were far from impressive in their previous three games.  They only beat Maryland 34-27 as 17-point home favorites, Iowa 27-14 as 10.5-point road favorites and Indiana 31-10 as 23-point road favorites.  Keep in mind that Indiana game was tied 10-10 at halftime.  Michigan only outgained Iowa by 46 yards and Maryland by 66 yards, too.

Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Simply put, this is too many points for this rivalry game, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Spartans and 'sell high' on the Wolverines.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Pacers rank 11th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and it should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2022-23.

The OVER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games overall.  The OVER is 22-5-1 in Nets last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out.  The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force.  All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.

This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State.  They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West.  Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot.  They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell.  But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.

I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected.  Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43.  The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense.  They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.

It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either.  The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have a below-average offense.  Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.

Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season.  They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason.  They just haven't been able to put it all together yet.  It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight.  They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring.  Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range.  Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.

It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall.  They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors.  The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment.  They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.  And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs.  UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.

This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week.  Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter.  UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins.  Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.

This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee.  Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week.  UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses.  Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs.  And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.

This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves.  It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style.  That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.

Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number.  The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season.  One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS.  The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards.  So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.

Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better.  Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5

This is a big letdown spot for Oregon.  The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday.  It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season.  They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites.  They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs.  They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season.  This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.

The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one.  Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.  Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown.  Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense.  The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings.  That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.

California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5

The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks.  They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham.  He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  

It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for.  This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games.  They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule.  Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.

Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons.  Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021.  Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be.  This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield.  The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead.  They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1.  They also lost in OT to Navy by 3.  Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.

What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game.  They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.

BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start.  The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be.  BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.

You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB.  BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards.  They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.

The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars.  In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here.  BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed.  Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.

The Cougars cannot stop the run.  They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas.  East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country.  BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games.  Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors.

Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday.  Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting.

Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will want it more tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall.  Three of those losses came on the road.  They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat.  They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season.  They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit.  They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.

Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.  Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive.  They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.

That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason.  They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses.  They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late.  They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.

This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies.  They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them.  They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites.  And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.  

The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12.  Those two losses have them flying under the radar.  They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.

That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season.  The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory.  The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense.  I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.

The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson.  Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing.  Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns.  Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.

To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two.  The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss.  They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out.  That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.

Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points.  The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored.  Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers.  If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently.  Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.

The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  You'll never get them at a better price this season.  The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK.  Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve.  The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play.  A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.

This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks.  The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games.  They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.

And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight.  The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.

Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home.  Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002.  He has never been two games under .500 in his career.  I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done.  Roll with the Bucs Thursday.

15* Mavs/Nets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Dallas ML -120

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are 1-2 this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points to the Pelicans and Suns.  They also crushed the Grizzlies 137-96 in between.  They took the Pelicans lightly last time out because they were without both Ingram and Williamson, and now they come back motivated for a victory tonight.

While the Mavericks are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Nets are a tired team right now.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  After losing 124-134 to the short-handed Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday, they lost 99-110 to the short-handed Bucks in Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they are back home Thursday playing a Mavericks team that isn't short-handed.

The Nets are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season after also losing by 22 to the Pelicans at home in the opener.  Their lone cover came in a 4-point home win over the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  This team is still searching for chemistry with Irving, Durant and Simmons, and the fact of the matter is they don't have much help outside those three.  The Nets are also a terrible team defensively and that's not going to change with this personnel, which is why they cannot be trusted no matter how much offensive talent they have.

The addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks even more dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game for the Mavericks.  Doncic is playing at an MVP level with 34.7 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game.  Spender Dinwiddie is filling in nicely for Jalen Bruson, averaging 18.0 points and 3.3 assists per game.

The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Dallas is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.  Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch.  

The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one.  Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season.  He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers.  The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves.  I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener.  Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs.  They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points.  They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing a lot faster this season as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace.  Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie are looking to push it more than Jalen Brunson did.  And the addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season.  They are also 4th in offensive efficiency.  I know they will be without Brandon Ingram tonight, but this total has been adjusted down because of it.  The Pelicans are still loaded on offense even without him, and I think they can do their part in getting us this OVER.

Both meetings in New Orleans last season went well OVER the total.  They combined for 243 and 246 points in the two meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores.  Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.

The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3.  They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers.  They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites.  They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards.  And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs.  But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears.  They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday.  They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards.  But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.

Chicago doesn't get blown out.  The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season.  I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers.  The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.

The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively.  Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game.  Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread?  I don't think so.

Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens.  They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore.  They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers.  The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season.  They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.

I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now.  Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him.  But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season.  Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Nets/Grizzlies Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 232

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be without their two best defenders in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks tonight.  Jackson will be out until Christmas, while Brooks should make his return soon.  But the Grizzlies have been atrocious defensively this season thus far and have had to play small ball and try and outscore the opposition.

The Grizzlies rank 26th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions.  They have been playing at a fast pace this season ranking 5th in the NBA in pace.  After combining for 251 points with the Rockets, the Grizzlies just combined for 233 points with the Mavericks last time out.

The Nets will get up and down with the Grizzlies here as they rank 9th in the NBA in pace.  They are forming better chemistry with each passing game and just got a key role player in Joe Harris back and could get back their other sharp shooter in Seth Curry tonight.  This team will be tough to tame on offense when Durant, Irving, Simmons, Harris and Curry are all on the floor at the same time.  They'll still be terrible defensively, though.  The Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies beat the Nets 132-120 for 252 combined points in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Memphis.  The OVER is 10-1 in Memphis last 11 home games following a division game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 228

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out two games back when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  Then on Saturday they beat the Pistons 124-115 for 239 combined points.  Indiana ranks 1st in the NBA in pace at 108.4 possessions per game.  They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency as well.

Philadelphia is going to be ready to blow the doors off the Pacers.  They have opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Look for them to continue trying to poor it on late as they try and pick up their first win of the season.  The 76ers are 20th in defensive efficiency this season, which has been their biggest problem.  They just gave up 114 point to the lowly Spurs while getting upset as 13.5-point favorites.  They also allowed 126 points to the Celtics in their opener.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The Pacers and 76ers have combined for 229 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  They combined for 253, 253 and 231 points in their final three meetings last season, respectively.  The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They also aren't looking to push the pace, especially with Chris Paul running the show for the Suns.  And now the Clippers trying to form some chemistry with Leonard, Wall, George and company all back healthy.  

Phoenix ranks 28th in pace through two games while the Clippers rank 16th.  The Clippers are also 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 14th.  The Suns are 29th in offensive efficiency while the Clippers are 27th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Suns and Clippers with combined scores of 222, 199, 195 and 206 points.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings between the Suns and Clippers have seen 218 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 7-2 in those meetings.

The UNDER is 35-17-1 in Suns last 53 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Suns last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Phoenix is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

New Orleans came back with another 124-112 road win over the Hornets to cover as 7-point favorites.  Valanciunas had 30 points, Ingram 28, McCollum 21 and Williamson 16 in the win.  Now the Pelicans get to play their first home game, and fans will sell out the building in anticipation of getting to see Williamson back healthy.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere in New Orleans tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are coming off two shocking upset wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves to start the season.  Many expected the Jazz to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after trading away basically everyone but Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.  While there is more talent on this team than they got credit for to start the season, they won't be able to hang with this Pelicans team tonight on the road in this atmosphere.  Utah is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50

Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.  

The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game.  Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now.  That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers.  Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.

Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game.  Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf.  But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense.  In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt.  The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout.  It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.

Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11

The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way.  I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week.  Well that boost only lasted for a half.  The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there.  They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.

WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals.  The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams.  Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage.  Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.

They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback.  Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much.  They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago.  They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago.  And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.

The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week.  They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.

In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009.  The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.

I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead.  The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game.  The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air.  The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.

It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout.  Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49

The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week.  They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup.  Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.

The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game.  The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play.  Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.

The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score.  They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down.  They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier.  Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive.  He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.

Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game.  They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB.  Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.

I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals.  They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless.  They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win.  They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in.  They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week.  They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens.  And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three  consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9

This is a great spot to fade the Denver Nuggets.  They are coming off a 128-23 upset win at Golden State as 5-point underdogs last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder are rested coming in on two days' rest after last being seen hanging tough with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 108-115 road loss as 10.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.  The Thunder were the best covering team in the NBA last season as they were way more competitive than most expected.  They lost a lot of close games, and if they lose this one it won't be by double-digits.

The Thunder have had the Nuggets' numbers in recent meetings.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the two losses coming by 4 and 6 points.  They also upset the Nuggets by 12 outright as 15.5-point dogs and by 14 as 6.5-point dogs.

The Thunder are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Denver is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2

The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year.  They are nowhere near the team they were last year.  They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season.  Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia.  They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.

The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.  The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won.  He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17.  The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.

Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here.  And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season.  Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC.  This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.

Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th.  That difference in strength of schedule is a big one.  This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* Padres/Phillies NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 8

Look for a similar outburst to Game 2 when the Phillies and Padres combined for 13 runs.  These are the worst two starters for their respective teams thus far in this series, and the bats for both teams will get going in Game 4 tonight.

Mike Clevinger is 7-8 with a 4.46 ERA in 23 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 5.68 ERA in 14 road starts.  Clevinger is 1-1 with a 7.10 ERA in his last three starts.  He allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start against the Dodgers this season.

Bailey Falter is 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 16 starts this season.  But Falter has 'faltered' at home, going 3-2 with a 5.56 ERA in seven starts while allowing 8 homers and 21 earned runs in 34 innings.  The Padres will get into this Philadelphia bullpen early.

The OVER is 7-1-1 in Padres last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Padres last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Phillies last six home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 229

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out last night when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  I'm shocked this total is in the 220's as the Pacers are the ultimate 'OVER' team, playing at a fast pace and playing little defense.  Now they face another young, up and coming team in the Pistons that will enjoy getting up and down the floor with them.  The Pistons just gave up 130 points to the Knicks last night, who aren't known for being an offensive juggernaut.

The Pistons and Pacers combined for 238 and 235 points in two of their final three meetings last season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indiana.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11

Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.

Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games,  and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener.  Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite.  That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards.  This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number.  The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.

The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state.  New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss).  The only team to blow them out was LSU.  Roll with New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5

I love the spot for UTEP this week.  They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season.  They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well.  UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards.  If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week.  And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?

The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites.  Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season.  Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home.  They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.

UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation.  They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards.  The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well.  Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.

FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.  Roll with UTEP Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.

Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.  The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites.  Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass.  Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title.  Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.  North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5

What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real?  They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games.  They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12.  They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.

I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon.  This game should be lined between the 3's worst case.  Oregon hasn't beaten anyone.  The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU.  When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia.  Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.

The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too.  The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play.  Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.

The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons.  They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season.  This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series.  And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Take UCLA Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5

Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere.  Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters.  Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start.  Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.

It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury.  Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan.  This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup.  They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.

Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan.  The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory.  It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss.  They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back.  And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.

Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result.  The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season.  They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense.  Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.

Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points.  Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Clemson ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 50

Clemson and Georgia Tech have two of the best defenses in the country this season.  Syracuse is off to a 6-0 start largely due to their defense.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game.  They are also 8th in total defense allowing 268.8 yards per game.

Clemson is 26th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  They are also 32nd in total defense at 341.7 yards per game.  They have played some really good offenses in Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisiana Tech already.  Syracuse may be the 5th-best offense they have faced this season.  They will shut down the Orange, who haven't seen a defense nearly as good as this Clemson stop unit.

Last year, Clemson beat Syracuse 17-14 for just 31 combined points. Four of the last five meetings have seen 51 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Both teams are run-heavy which will keep the clock moving.  Syracuse runs the ball 60% of the time and averages just 65 plays per game on offense, which is one of the lowest marks in the country.  Clemson runs the ball on 53% of the time.

Dino Babers is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a conference home win as a head coach.  Syracuse is 7-0 in its last seven games UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Clemson is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Points will be hard to come by in this battle of unbeatens.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UAB/Western Kentucky C-USA No-Brainer on UAB ML +125

I like the spot and the matchup for the UAB Blazers and I expect them to pull off the upset over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as a result.  UAB has only played six games this season while Western Kentucky has already played seven games.  The Blazers will be the fresher team, especially with this being a short week.

These teams have a common opponent in Middle Tennessee.  UAB crush Middle Tennessee 41-14 and outgained them by 245 yards while racking up 581 total yards.  Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 35-17 and outgained them by 152 yards while racking up 443 total yards.  It was a comfortable win for the Hilltoppers, but not as dominant as UAB.

UAB rushes for 246 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  They are going to be able to run on this Western Kentucky defense.  They also have an efficient passing game, completing 64.7% for 206 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.  And I really like this UAB defense, which holds opponents to 17.3 points per game, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.

Western Kentucky relies heavily on throwing the football to score points.  They average 345 passing yards per game.  Well, UAB has one of the best pass defenses in the country.  The Blazers are holding opponents to 176 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt, holding them to 82 passing yards per game and 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.

UAB is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a conference win.  The Blazers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UAB is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UAB on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

The Charlotte Hornets are without LaMelo Ball to start the season.  They go as he goes, especially offensively.  Points will be hard to come by for the Hornets until he returns as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.6 assists per game last season.  They are also missing Miles Bridges, who was charged with three counts of domestic violence.  He averaged 20.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

I do like the re-hiring of Steve Clifford, who was the head coach of the Hornets from 2013 to 2018.  He says he wants to keep the up-tempo offense, but that's going to be hard without Ball tonight.  Charlotte averaged just 98.8 points per game in the preseason.  Their 129-102 win over the Spurs in the opener was more to do with San Antonio being the worst team in the NBA than anything.  They will get exposed here in this big step up in class, while the Pelicans take a big step down in competition after facing the Nets.

New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Charlotte.  Take the Pelicans in a blowout Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards ML -115

The Washington Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded last season.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

It was an impressive 114-107 road win for the Wizards over the Pacers in their opener.  Beal had 23 points, Kyle Kuzma 22, Porzingis 15 and Barton 17 in the opener.  They held the Pacers to just 40% shooting for the game behind a great defensive effort as well.

The Bulls are a potent team when healthy, but that's not the case to start the season.  They were terrible after losing Lonzo Ball last season, and he remains out to start this season.  They are also without Zach LaVine Friday.  The Bulls are getting respect for their upset win at Miami in the opener, but Miami isn't as strong this season, and DeRozan isn't going to shoot as well as he did when he had 37 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the upset.  Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick.  It hasn't come yet.  I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning.  I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3.  I expect the Saints to win this game outright.

The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season.  The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.

The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks.  The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.

The two wins weren't impressive, either.  They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken.  They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4.  So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.

The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.  But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.  

Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray.  I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week.  This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.

The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards.  They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game.  Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.

The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks.  They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one.  Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.

I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards.  The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less.  The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry.  The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Saints Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  They have been an underdog in five of six games and a dog of 17 or more four times.  They have managed to get through it at 3-3 and have covered three straight coming in.

The sign of things to come was the misleading 27-10 loss to UCF as 21-point dogs.  They outgained the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  That showed what they were capable of, and that result looks even better now after UCF went on to blow out SMU and Temple the last two weeks since.

Georgia Tech then went on the road and upset Pittsburgh 26-21 as a 21.5-point underdogs.  And last time out they could have easily let down, instead they beat Duke 23-20 (OT) as a 3.5-point dog.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Yellow Jackets outgained the Blue Devils 412 to 278, or by 134 total yards.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Duke.  Virginia lost 17-38 to Duke and was held to just 295 yards while getting outgained by 82 yards.  The Cavaliers went on to lose 34-17 as a home favorite to Louisville and their backup quarterback while getting outgained by 154 yards.  The Cavaliers are now 2-4 this season with their only two wins coming at home against FCS Richmond and Old Dominion (16-14).

Tony Elliott is in over his head in his first season at Virginia this year.  They have a good QB in Brennan Armstrong, but their offensive line is terrible with five new starters and he doesn't have much time to do anything.  It won't get any easier against this underrated Georgia Tech defense that is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play that average 6.3 per play, holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Georgia State/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Georgia State +10

A lot was expected out of Georgia State after going 8-5 last season and returning 15 starters, including all of their studs on offense.  But a 2-4 start this season currently has them undervalued.  We'll take advantage and back them as 10-point underdogs to Appalachian State Wednesday night in this 'buy low' spot.

The Panthers have gotten it together of late after an 0-4 start.  They beat Army 31-14 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and followed it up with a 41-33 home win over Georgia Southern as 2.5-point favorites.  That's the same Georgia Southern team that just upset James Madison to hand the Dukes their first loss of the season.

Appalachian State is down this season and has been overvalued since that upset win over Texas A&M.  The Mountaineers are just 3-3 on the season.  They only have one win by more than 4 points this year, and that came against The Citadel as a 38.5-point favorite.  They were just upset as 19-point favorites against Texas State last time out, losing outright 36-24.

Georgia State is a great rushing team, averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  Appalachian State has allowed 172 or more rushing yards three times this season.  The Panthers will be able to run the football on them to set up play-action.  They are also throwing for 202 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass with a dynamic offense this season.

Georgia State's defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Panthers have faced a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  They give up 6.0 yards per play against team that average 6.5 yards per play, so they are actually holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  

Keep in mind Georgia State has played such a tough schedule that they were underdogs in four of five games, so they have actually met expectations at 2-4.  App State has been favored in five of six games, yet has gone just 3-3.  The Mountaineers continue to be overvalued as double-digit favorites this week.

The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Georgia State is 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher.  Bet Georgia State Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Pacers OVER 227.5

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  Now they face a Washington team in the opener that finished 25th in defensive efficiency last season.

The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner take them.  They added Rookie of the Year candidate Bennedict Mathurin in the draft.  I think this team will be just fine offensively, but again they don't have many plus defenders.  And Carlisle clearly isn't concerned with them improving on that end.

The Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Wizards and Pacers.  They have combined for 256 or more points in six of those eight meetings.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Pacers last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Padres -115

Playoff Blake Snell is much different than regular season Blake Snell.  He has been in playoff mode for a couple months now and has been absolutely dominant.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, including one earned run or fewer in seven of those.  

Snell has posted a 1.35 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings with 36 K's to boot.  Snell has a 2.89 ERA while allowing just 14 earned runs in 43 2/3 innings in his career in the postseason.  He will come up clutch and get the Padres a win here in Game 2 after dropping Game 1.

Aaron Nola is getting too much respect here.  He has been dominant down the stretch at times as well, but not as consistently as Snell.  Nola has allowed 4 earned runs or more in three of his last nine starts.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs in 21 innings in his last three starts against the Padres for a 3.86 ERA as well.

The Padres are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a loss and will bounce back in a big way today behind Snell.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Phillies/Padres NLCS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego -110

The San Diego Padres just beat a pair of 100-win teams in the Mets and Dodgers to get here.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, and we are getting them at basically even money in Game 1, which is good value.

Yu Darvish is 18-8 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Darvish has been at his best at home, going 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia.

Darvish has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in two starts against the Phillies in 2022.  He'll be opposed by Zack Wheeler, who has been at his worst on the road this season at 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts away from home.

The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games following an off day.  The Padres are 15-4 in Darvish's last 19 starts with a total of 7 or less.  Take the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result.  But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3.  It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.

The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won.  They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone.  The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT.  That was the second game they gave away this season.  They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.

The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team.  They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles.  They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game.  So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far.  It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start.  They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.  That's not the sign of an elite team.  I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.

Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns.  They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams.  They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here.  Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.

I love the spot for the Broncos, too.  They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football.  They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time.  It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.

The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more.  It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense.  Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates.  The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.

This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense.  The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air.  Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6

Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  He crushed the Commanders 25-10.  And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.

I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now.  The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles.  This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.

A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line.  Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games.  Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line.  All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.

The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons.  They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories.  The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run.  They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him.  He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.

The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season.  They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory.  They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over.  The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss.  Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL.  The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +165

The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch.  They have gone 26-6 in their last 32 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees.  They should not be home underdogs in Game 4 of this series tonight, especially with the Yankees reeling after blowing a 5-3 lead in the 9th inning last night.  The Guardians have all the momentum now.

Cal Quantrill is one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 15-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 33 starts, including a perfect 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 19 home starts.  The Guardians are 16-2 in Quantrill's last 18 starts overall.

Gerrit Cole has come up short in the postseason before and is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 14-8 with an identical 3.43 ERA to Quantrill, including a 3.81 ERA in 17 road starts this season.  I'll gladly take the value with the home team today.  Bet the Guardians in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5

San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season.  Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year.  But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference.  He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022.

San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent.  They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33.  That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also.

Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  San Jose State is far and away better than both teams.

Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place.  He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions.  He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts.  Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans.  He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores.  He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either.  They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge.  San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -116

The Los Angeles Dodgers will bounce back following consecutive losses to the Padres to fall behind 2-1 in this series.  They have a big advantage on the mound today, and the experience advantage as the Padres aren't used to trying to close out a series.  That is the hardest game to win for inexperienced teams.

Tyler Anderson is 14-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Dodgers.  Anderson owns the Padres, going 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Padres in 2022.

Joe Musgrove is having a solid season overall, but he cannot figure out the Dodgers.  In fact, Musgrove is 0-6 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in nine career starts against them, having never beaten Los Angeles.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in six of his nine career starts against the Dodgers.  Roll with the Dodgers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5

Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs.

The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog.  The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game.

The Seminoles have elite numbers.  They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.  Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule.  Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are.  The Seminoles are elite in this category.

I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST.  It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town.  The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point.  Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night.

Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +110

The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch.  They have gone 25-6 in their last 31 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees.  They should not be home underdogs in Game 3 of this series tonight.

Triston McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 14 home starts.  McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.  He pitched 7 shutout innings in his lone start against New York this season.  He pitched 6 shutout innings against the Rays in his first playoff start.

Luis Severino hasn't pitched since October 3rd and has a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts on extended rest.  Severino is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Guardians, allowing 10 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Take the Guardians in Game 3 Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4

This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week.

The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites.  There was nothing fluky about either of those victories.  The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense.

Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home.  They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week.  QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards.  But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was.  Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss.  Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse.

Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5

James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations.  Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS.

But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football.  They aren't just winning, they are dominating.  The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense.  They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play.

Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska.  They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.  They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  So they can hang with the Dukes offensively.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively.  They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season.

The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack.  The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game.  Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season.  You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week.  Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season.  The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will.  Roll with James Madison Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5

A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin.  Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division.  Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway.

Boy did the players ever respond.  After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week.  That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game.  The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards.  Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.

Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season.  The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season.  Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move.  He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron.

The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive.  They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards.  They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards.  They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards.  And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards.  They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed.

So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start.  They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster.  I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle.

The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5

What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real?  They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset.  It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage.  The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders.

I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites.  They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide.  The Vols are elite on both sides of the football.  While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset.

Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite.  The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters.

Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20.  They are fortunate to be 6-0.  I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.  Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there.

Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season.  To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run.  Tennessee is up to the challenge.  The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages.

Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma.  They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it.

Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now.  Kansas State upset them on the road.  Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24.  That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week.  The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback.

It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week.  That game could decide the Big 12 title.  In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3.  But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats.

Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12.  It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won.  And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home.  Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way.

Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game.  The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages.  They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense.

Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out.  In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.  That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Padres NLDS No-Brainer on Los Angeles -115

Getting the Los Angeles Dodgers at nearly even money against the San Diego Padres is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  They have the better starter and have been here before.  They should be much bigger than -115 favorites in Game 3.

Tony Gonsolin is 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Gonsolin has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 (5-0 money line) with a 1.55 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Blake Snell is 8-10 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 home starts.  Snell has been one of the most overvalued starters in baseball this season as the Padres are 9-16 (-13.9 Units) in his 25 starts, including 5-10 (-11.6 Units) in his 15 home starts.

The Dodgers are 41-13 in their last 54 vs. NL West opponents.  Los Angeles is 67-24 in its last 91 games overall.  The Dodgers are 50-20 in their last 70 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 41-17 in the last 58 meetings.  The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 divisional playoff games, including 0-4 in their last four divisional playoff home games.  Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3

The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home.  I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night.

Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here.  Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average.  The more telling stats are yards per play.  Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play.  WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.

West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game.  That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter.  The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns.  They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday.  He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry.  His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade.

Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2.  The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU.  They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate.  Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards.  But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference.  If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites.

Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season.  The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards.  The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson.  WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game.

The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Mariners/Astros ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +150

The Seattle Mariners aren't lacking any confidence at the plate right now in the postseason.  They have scored 21 combined runs in their first three playoff games.  They have also scored at least 4 runs in six consecutive games dating back to the regular season.

Look for the Mariners to bounce back following a tough Game 1 loss where they blew a 7-3 lead.  Luis Castillo will get them back in the win column.  He is 9-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Castillo fired 7 1/3 shutout innings against the potent Blue Jays in a 4-0 victory last time out.

Framber Valdez is having a solid season overall, but he has lost his touch here down the stretch.  Valdez is 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 runs, 10 earned and 27 base runners in 15 2/3 innings.  Valdez allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Mariners this season.

Seattle is 35-17 in its last 52 road games.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -136

The Atlanta Braves will bounce back after losing as -200 favorites to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1.  This is a much better value on the Braves in Game 2 as they are now just -136 favorites against the Phillies in essentially what is a 'must win'.  They've been winning 'must win' games consistently for two seasons now.

Kyle Wright is 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  Wright has been at his best at home, going 13-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 17 home starts.  He is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last two starts against the Phillies, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.

The Braves are 16-1 in Wright's last 17 starts.  Atlanta is 44-13 in its last 57 during Game 2 of a series.  The Braves are 42-13 in their last 55 home games.  Atlanta is 11-4 in its last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres.  Look for them to win this game by two runs or more with ease due to that advantage.  They have owned the Padres as well, going 14-5 against them this season, including 8-2 at home.

Julio Urias is 17-7 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Urias owns the Padres, going 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts against them, allowing just 4 earned runs in 36 innings.

Mike Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA in 13 road starts.  Clevinger has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 innings in those five starts.

The Dodgers are 29-5 in Urias' 34 starts in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.