Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all year.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright victories as underdogs.

Unfortunately, their six-game winning streak came to an end last night with a fluky 116-124 home loss to the Blazers last night in which they blew an 18-point halftime lead.  Now they come back highly motivated for a victory.  The only reason they are underdogs here is due to playing the second of a back-to-back, but they will still be fresh considering they had three days off prior to playing Portland.  Not all back-to-backs are created equal.

I'll gladly fade the Brooklyn Nets as home favorites here.  They remain without Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons and T.J. Warren are both questionable, and now Kyrie Irving is requesting to be traded.  This franchise is just filled with turmoil, especially right now.  They can't be trusted as home favorites given their current state and the way they have played at home of late.

Indeed, the Nets are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games as home favorites.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 41-17-2 ATS in its last 60 games when playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 home games overall.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

20* Purdue/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK

The Indiana Hoosiers were rolling going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games before losing on the road at Maryland last time out.  That was clearly a lookahead spot and they were flat, looking ahead to this showdown against No. 1 Purdue.

Now this will be one of the best atmospheres all season in college basketball.  The Hoosiers will have a huge home-court advantage, and there's a reason this line is a PK against the No. 1 team.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers off nine consecutive wins including a pair of blowout home wins over Michigan State and Penn State in their last two games coming in.

Things haven't been so easy for Purdue on the road this season.  They have been fortunate to beat Nebraska by 3, Ohio State by 2, Michigan State by 1 and Michigan by 5.  Their other two road victories came against lowly Florida State and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test of the entire season to this point.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Hoosiers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Miami/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

It's time to 'buy low' on the Clemson Tigers.  They were missing a few key players in recent games and underperformed because of it.  That includes their upset road loss at Boston College last time out.

Now the Tigers are fully healthy and back home today where they are a perfect 12-0 SU this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They host at Miami team that has been trading wins and losses in their last nine games.

Indeed, the Hurricanes are 0-4 SU in their last four games following a win.  They have not played well on the road recently going 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at lowly Florida State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS int heir last nine home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Clemson is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season.  They are playing well coming in going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road at Ohio State and at Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes have really been impressive in Big Ten home games beating Northwestern by 16, Rutgers by 11, Maryland by 14, Michigan by 9 and Indiana by 2 in their last five.  Now they host an Illinois team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.

Illinois is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall against a pretty soft schedule overall and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  They have played Nebraska twice, Wisconsin twice, and Minnesota during this stretch.  Against their three toughest opponents they were all three at home with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State and a 15-point loss to Indiana.

Iowa is 9-0 ATS at home with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games.  Iowa is 45-20-3 ATS in its last 68 home games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* Virginia/VA Tech ACC No-Brainer on Virginia Tech PK

Virginia Tech is one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season with several close losses.  They have gotten much healthier recently and could go on a run similar to last season where they finished strong and won the ACC Tournament to make the big dance.  This team is fully capable of doing the same thing.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Virginia Cavaliers, who have won seven consecutive games coming in and has been one of the luckiest teams in the country in close games.  In fact, six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or fewer during this run.  Their luck runs out today.

Virginia Tech beat Virginia 62-53 and 65-51 in its last two home meetings with the Cavaliers.  The favorites is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Hokies will close the favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +115

Iowa State is going to be highly motivated for a victory today following consecutive road losses at Missouri and at Texas Tech.  They blew a 23-point lead to the Red Raiders and want to get that nasty taste out of their mouth.  They also want revenge on Kansas after losing 60-62 on the road to the Jayhawks in their first meeting this season on January 14th.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-0 SU at Hilton Coliseum this season and this will be one of the best atmospheres in any venue this season.  Kansas is primed for a letdown after beating Kentucky on the road and getting revenge on K-State at home last time out.

Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games following a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz ML -115

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 18-9 SU at home this season and just have to win tonight to cover the money line for us.  They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is 13-15 SU & 12-16 ATS on the road this season and has been a terrible road team through the years.

Utah comes in fully healthy, rested and ready to go tonight.  The Jazz will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Hawks will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after losing at Portland and beating short-handed Phoenix.  

This will be their toughest test of this road trip thus far, and they have Denver on deck tomorrow, so don't be surprised if they limit starters minutes tonight to prepare for that 2nd of a back-to-back.  Utah has two more days off after this, so they will be 'all in' for this one.

Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins by 5 points or more.  Bet the Jazz on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a sandwich spot here.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 (OT) win over the defending champion Warriors, and now they have the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets on deck.  They are in a letdown and lookahead spot here, and I don't think they put their best foot forward because of it.  That's going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread against the pesky Magic tonight.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS following two consecutive road games this season.  The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Magic are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have a massive rest advantage over the Charlotte Hornets tonight that should lead them to victory in this battle between Eastern Conference bottom feeders.  Detroit was last seen losing 105-111 at Dallas as 8.5-point dogs on Monday, so they have had the last three days off.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days after losses at Milwaukee on Tuesday and at Chicago on Thursday.  Washington played over 38 minutes last night against the Bulls, Ball 35, Rozier 36 and Plumlee 31.  The Hornets won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  The Hornets are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Charlotte is 6-14 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +7.5

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-13 record.  But they rank 58th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

One of their wins came 81-71 at home as 1-point favorites against USC in their first meeting this season.  Now the Cougars are catching 7.5-points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case with this being a huge letdown spot for USC off the upset win over UCLA last time out, a game I backed the Trojans in.  But I'll gladly fade them here in this spot.

USC is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a home win by 10 points or more.  USC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

15* Clippers/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231

This is a very high total for a game involving the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 22nd in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They play even slower when Kawhi Leonard has been in the lineup and are an even better defensive team with him in there.  He has only played in 28 of their 54 games this season.

This total has been inflated largely due to the Bucks playing in three straight high scoring games against the Hornets, Pacers and Pelicans, which are three dead nuts over teams.  They take a big step up in class here at least offensively, where the Clippers match up with them very well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Milwaukee) - after having won four or five of their last six games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 70-33 (68%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +18

The UCLA Bruins have come back down to reality with back-to-back losses at Arizona by 6 and at USC by 13.  This line is adjusted too much in their favor tonight for the bounce-back factor.  They may win, but beating Washington by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Washington is 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall and has played some of its best basketball on the road during this stretch.  The Huskies only lost by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, lost by 8 as 9-point dogs at Arizona State and upset Colorado outright as 9-point dogs.

Now the Huskies have their sights set on revenge from a 49-74 home loss to UCLA as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  But Washington shot just 34.5% from the field including 2-of-25 (8%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's not going to happen again.

Washington is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games following two consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following an ATS loss.  Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wichita State +12.5

The Houston Cougars are 20-2 this season and the No. 3 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to from the betting public, and thus they are consistently too big of favorites.  That's the case tonight as 12.5-point road favorites at Wichita State.

Houston just lost outright as a 19-point home favorite to Temple, needed a late comeback to beat Cincinnati by 6 as a 14-point favorite, only beat South Florida by 6 as a 23-point favorite and only beat UCF by 6 as a 15-point favorite.  The Cougars aren't invincible like these recent spreads are indicating.

Few teams have played Houston as tough as Wichita State in the American Athletic in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Cougars.  They only lost by 2 in OT as 6.5-point home dogs, only lost by 10 as 11-point road dogs, upset them by 5 as 7-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 11-point road dogs in those four meetings.  I think this one is decided by single-digits as well.

Wichita State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games as a double-digit underdog.  The Shockers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Wichita State Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans following nine consecutive losses.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they are much better than they have shown while battling through injuries lately.  They are now fully healthy with the exception of Zion Williamson and I expect them to upset the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks have been the single-most overvalued team in the NBA. They are 27-25 SU but just 17-33-2 ATS this season.  Luka Doncic has to carry too much of the load for this team, and now he's without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG).  The Mavericks are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 2-12 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS following a home win this season.  The Mavericks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  Dallas is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +10.5

The Florida State Seminoles were a disaster in non-conference play this season.  They have been undervalued since.  The Seminoles have gone 5-6 SU but 8-3 ATS in conference play this season.  They have actually done their best work on the road of late, winning outright 84-71 as 4.5-point dogs at Notre Dame and 71-64 as 7.5-point dogs at Pitt in their last two road games.

The Seminoles should not be double-digit underdogs to the NC State Wolfpack tonight.  This feels like a letdown spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites and Wake Forest by 2 as 3-point road dogs.  They also only beat Miami by 2 in their previous home game.  They remain without Jack Clark (9.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Dusan Mahorcic (8.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG).

The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 17-35-3 ATS in their last 55 home games.  NC State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Marquette beat Villanova 68-66 for just 134 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I expect another low scoring game that stays UNDER 146 combined points in the rematch as well.

Marquette could be without leading scorer Kam Jones (16.0 PPG), who is questionable after leaving the DePaul game early with a hip injury last time out.  Villanova is without G Jordan Longino (6.7 PPG).  These two injuries will also help us cash in this UNDER ticket.  

Villanova ranks 337th in adjusted tempo this season and always forces opponents to play in the half court.  Marquette will be forced to do the same, especially if they don't have Jones tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -5

This is a rare opportunity to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 112-100 home win over the Pacers last time out.  All five losses came on the road, but the Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA at home.

Indeed, the Grizzlies are 21-3 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off a five-game home stand but are just 10-15 SU & 12-13 ATS on the road.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  Portland is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a top teams that win between 60% and 70% of their games.  The Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Grizzlies are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the 76ers and Magic.  I love betting UNDERS in these situations.  They combined for 228 points in that first meeting on Monday and I expect an even lower scoring game in the rematch.

The 76ers rank 22nd in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  They will come back with an inspired effort defensively tonight after getting upset by the Magic in that first meeting.

13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have seen 230 or fewer combined points, making for a 13-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Plays on the UNDER where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game after allowing 115 points or more in two consecutive games are 74-34 (68.5%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +10.5

Purdue is the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are going to be difficult for them to live up to.  Now they are double-digit favorites against Penn State tonight, and this number is a few notches too high.

I believe this is a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  They already beat Penn State 76-63 on a neutral on January 8th.  They are coming off a big home win against Michigan State and have a big road game on deck at Indiana.  That makes this a sandwich spot, and I don't think we get their best effort as a result.

Penn State obviously wants revenge from that earlier defeat.  The Nittany Lions have been playing well going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games since that loss to Purdue.  All three wins came by double-digits, and one of the losses came by just 3 points at Wisconsin.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS following eight or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when revenging a same-season loss.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost seven consecutive games coming in.  They will want revenge from a 98-99 home loss to the Nuggets on January 24th just a week ago.  I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans tonight catching 7 points in the rematch.

It's not like the Nuggets are playing much better.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming by a single point.  That includes an upset home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have only won one of their last five home games by double-digits.

The Pelicans are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on West Virginia/TCU UNDER 144

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  West Virginia just beat TCU 74-65 for 139 combined points less than two weeks ago on January 18th.  Both teams shot well in that game, too as the Mountaineers shot 46.3% while the Horned Frogs shot 52.4%.  The teams combined for 39 made free throws on 52 attempts as well.

Mike Miles Jr. scored 21 points in that first meeting for TCU.  Well, the Horned Frogs won't have their best player in Miles Jr. (18.1 PPG) for the rematch after suffering a knee injury against Mississippi State over the weekend.  He runs the show for them and is tremendous in transition.  The Horned Frogs won't be looking to push the tempo nearly as much without him.

West Virginia and TCU have combined for 144 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kentucky -7.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are playing up to their potential finally in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss to Kansas, which came up with clutch 3 after clutch 3 over the weekend to escape with a victory.  They won by 16 at Vanderbilt, upset Tennessee by 7 as double-digit road dogs, beat Georgia by 14 and Texas A&M by 9 at home.

Now the Wildcats actually take a step down in class here against Ole Miss and this one has blowout written all over it with the way the Rebels are going right now.  Indeed, Ole Miss is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with its lone win come against South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC.  They lost by 22 at Oklahoma State, by 12 at home to Missouri, by 12 at Arkansas, were upset at home by Georgia, lost by 9 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Mississippi State, by 22 at Alabama nd were upset as 22.5-point home favorites to North Alabama during this stretch.

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 80 points or more.  Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS vs. a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -7.5

The Boise State Broncos have been destroying teams of late.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points at New Mexico as 2.5-point underdogs.  They beat Utah State by 23 at home, UNLV by 18 on the road, Wyoming by 17 on the road, Nevada by 15 at home, Fresno by 10 at home and Colorado State by 21 at home.

Each of Boise State's last six wins have come by double-digits against some very good competition, and now they actually take a step down in class here against Air Force.  The Falcons are 3-6 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  I don't see them offering much resistance here against the Broncos, either.

Boise State won 85-59 at Air Force last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  Boise State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  The Broncos are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boise State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/Colorado State UNDER 143.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Colorado State beat UNLV 82-81 (OT) on January 14th just over two weeks ago.  That game was tied 70-70 at the end of regulation for 140 combined points.  I think the rematch stays UNDER 143.5 combined points as long as we don't get OT again.

I don't expect the Rams to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting, either.  They shot 50.8% as a team and 43.7% from 3-point range with 14 made 3-pointers.  They rank just 219th in the country in adjusted tempo and will slow it down playing at home tonight.

UNLV is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games when playing a losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  This number has simply been inflated due to that first meeting going to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +15.5

Vanderbilt has been a tremendous bet as a road underdog.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs this season with two outright upsets and not a single loss by more than 9 points.  They lost by 3 at Missouri as 8.5-point dogs, by 9 at Tennessee as 16.5-point dogs and by 6 at Texas A&M as 9.5-point dogs.  They can stay within 15.5 points of Alabama tonight.

The Crimson Tide beat the Commodores 78-66 at Vanderbilt as 9-point favorites in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  I always like backing the road underdog in the rematch after losing the first meeting.  Vanderbilt shot 30.1% as a team and 6-of-33 (18.2%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only lost by 12.  I'd have to expect them to improve their shooting in the rematch.

The Commodores are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  Vanderbilt is 21-5-1 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Alabama is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 home games.  The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The underdog is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games revenging a loss where opponents scored 75 points or more.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Alabama is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 90 points or more.  These four trends combined for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Commodores.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been getting respect all season that has been unwarranted.  They are 26-25 SU but just 17-32-2 ATS this season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood right now, plus Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle injury.  I like the Pistons at this number whether or not Doncic plays.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They pulled off the 130-122 upset win at Brooklyn as identical 8.5-point dogs in their last road game.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 11 days tonight.  Detroit pulled the 131-125 upset as 8-point home dogs to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings PK

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 110-117 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here two days later and are the fresher team by far.

While the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 18 days.  This is a clear letdown spot for the Timberwolves after just beating the Kings, plus it's a lookahead spot with the defending champion Warriors on deck Wednesday.  I expect the Kings to give an A-plus effort and the Timberwolves to be flat tonight.

Plays on road teams (Sacramento) - revenging a loss, while also off two or more consecutive upset losses as favorites are 42-21 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the NBA for two seasons running now.  That has especially been the case of late as the Thunder are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  They are showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road this season going 6-18 SU & 8-16 ATS away from home.  They play zero defense on the highway, allowing 122.9 points per game on 49% shooting.  The Thunder are 15-10 SU & 16-9 ATS at home this season and scoring 119.4 points per game on 48% shooting.

The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in road games following a win this season.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  The Thunder are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself.  Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable.  And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line.  All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game.  Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.

Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points.  They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those.  They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.

Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games.  They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games.  They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons.  They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses.  That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games.  Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost a season-high five consecutive games, but all five losses came on the road.  Now they are back home where they are 20-3 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.

The Grizzlies get a step down in class here against the Indiana Pacers, who have really been struggling without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.2 PPG, 10.2 APG), who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  The Pacers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and this run has coincided with the loss of Haliburton.  Five of their last seven losses have been by double-digits so they have rarely been competitive.

Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. Central Division opponents.  The Grizzlies beat the Pacers 130-112 as 7.5-point road favorites on January 14th, and now are only 8.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 18, 30 and 33 points.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning.  Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better.  The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are the better team in my opinion.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak.  They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.

The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games.  This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.

One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game.  The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances.  The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.

The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense.  In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders.  Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry.  The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air.  He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two.  I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +8

The Michigan State Spartans want revenge from a 63-64 home loss to Purdue on January 16th less than two weeks ago.  I think they can stay within 8 points on the road in the rematch and possibly pull off the upset, especially since they have a healthy Malik Hall for the rematch after not having him available in the first meeting.

Purdue has been one of the luckiest teams in the country winning most of their close games.  They have three wins by 5 points or less in their last four games with the exception being a blowout win over lowly Minnesota.  They only won by 1 at Michigan State, by 3 at home against Maryland and by 5 at Michigan.  They lost outright at home to Rutgers for their lone defeat this season.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Purdue is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers today.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* Lakers/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 118-122 (OT) home loss to the Boston Celtics in which they blew a double-digit lead in the final minutes on December 13th in their first meeting this season.  They have Anthony Davis back healthy now and both James and Walker IV are questionable for this one.

The Celtics will be without their glue guy in Marcus Smart, who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  That has shown as the Celtics are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without him losing by 15 at Orlando as 7.5-point favorites, losing by 3 at Miami as 2.5-point dogs and lost by 3 at home to New York as 8.5-point favorites.

The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins during this stretch coming by 3 and 2 points.  They aren't blowing anyone out.  The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by more than 5 points in their last eight games.  Los Angeles is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall dating back further, including 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 237.5

Recent overtime games by the Celtics have inflated this total.  They are much more of a defensive-minded team since Robert Williams came back, and they are lacking on offense of late as teams have figured them out, plus they played bigger instead of small ball with Williams.

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Celtics last five games overall if not for OT.  They have combined for 220, 193, 211, 210 and 212 points at the end of regulation in their last five games overall.  This total has been inflated way up to 237.5 points, and there's clear value with the UNDER.

Speaking of OT games, Boston beat Los Angeles 122-118 in OT in their first meeting this season.  But that game was tied 110-110 at the end of regulation for just 220 combined points.  And I think this game should be much closer to 220 than 240 tonight given the rivalry and how both teams have been playing of late.

Boston is 14-5 UNDER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +10.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores don't get blown out often and will give the Texas A&M Aggies a run for their money tonight.  They have just one loss by more than 12 points all season and that came against Kentucky.  They only lost by 3 at Missouri, by 9 at Tennessee, by 5 at VCU, upset Temple and upset Georgia in their five true road games this season.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Texas A&M Aggies.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a brutal three-game stretch beating Florida by 2 at home, losing by 9 at Kentucky and upsetting Auburn on the road.  That makes this a natural letdown spot for the Aggies after handing Auburn its first home loss in ages.

Vanderbilt is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Commodores are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games following a loss.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games following three consecutive games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Commodores are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days, which is about as tough of a situation as you will see in the NBA.  

Don't be surprised if they rest some starters after four starters played at least 30 minutes last night including 37 from Russell and 36 from Edwards.  It's also a letdown spot for the Timberwolves off an upset win over the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year, so they definitely wanted some revenge last night and got it.

The Kings come in on two days' rest and will test Minnesota's tired legs by playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  They will also be highly motivated for a win off an upset loss to the Raptors last time out.  The Kings have been a great road team this season at 11-9 SU & 13-7 ATS.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -4

It's safe to say the New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six consecutive games coming into this one.  But they just got Brandon Ingram back from injury last game, and they are at full strength with the exception of Zion Williamson.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pelicans, who also come in on two days' rest.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Washington Wizards, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  PF Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Wizards while PG Monte Morris is questionable.  The Pelicans beat the Wizards 132-112 on the road in their first meeting this season on January 9th.

The Wizards are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on two days' rest.  Washington is 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have never lost more than three games in a row under Bill Self.  Well, they come in on a three-game losing streak with losses to Kansas State, TCU and Baylor.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today.

We'll 'buy low' on the Jayhawks, who also want revenge from a home loss to Kentucky last season.  We'll 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while Kansas has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games.

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Wildcats are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Clippers PK

The Los Angeles Clippers are a dangerous team when both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are healthy.  That has been the case in recent games and it has shown.  The Clippers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 5, 14, 18 and 38 points.

Now they make it five in a row as a PK on the road at the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks had lost to the Hornets by 4 at home and the Bulls by 11 on the road before getting a 5-point win at OKC.  They take a huge step up in class here after playing a very easy schedule of late.

Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah State/Fresno State UNDER 134.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the second meeting between Utah State and Fresno State this season.  The Aggies won 67-54 for just 121 combined points in their first meeting on December 31st that was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

Fresno State ranks 333rd in adjusted tempo, 255th in adjusted offense and 80th in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  This had been a very low-scoring series as it is with the UNDER 5-0 in the last five meetings.  It would be 6-0 in the last six if not for OT.

Indeed, Utah State and Fresno State have combined for 121, 115, 108, 122, 130 and 122 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 119.7 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +4.5

Fresno State has been great at home this season in conference play.  The Bulldogs upset Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Now I expect them to upset Utah State, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Utah State has lost its last three conference road games by double-digits.  The Aggies lost by 23 as 2-point dogs at Boise, by 15 as 2-point dogs at Nevada and by 10 as 7-point dogs at San Diego State.  They also lost at Fresno State last season.

Utah State is 14-40 ATS in its last 54 road games following a road loss.  The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following four consecutive games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers.  Utah State is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with its two wins both coming at home by 4 over UNLV and by 1 over San Jose State.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

15* Texas/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas +6.5

This line should be much closer to PK.  Both Tennessee and Texas enter 17-3 this season but the difference is Texas played in the best conference in the country in the Big 12, while Tennessee plays in the SEC.  The Longhorns have played the tougher schedule and are more ready for this game.

The Longhorns have shown they can still be great without Chris Beard as they have won five of their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at Iowa State.  Kentucky won at Tennessee outright as a big underdog a few weeks ago, so it can be done.

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in defensive efficiency, and while no denying they are a great defensive team, they have been fortunate with opposing teams missing open shots.  Opponents are only hitting 21.6% on 3-pointers against them and 25% of open 3's, which is just pure luck.  Texas scores 80.5 points per game this season and will test the Vols' D more than anyone has up to this point.  The Longhorns rank 12th in adjusted offense and 27th in adjusted defense.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +9.5

The Arizona Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and not blowing anyone out of late.  They are in a tough spot here following three consecutive wins over USC at home, UCLA at home and Washington State on the road.  Asking them to beat the Huskies by double-digits is asking too much.

Washington has been grossly undervalued of late.  The Huskies are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Arizona, by 8 at Arizona State, they upset Colorado on the road and upset Arizona State at home.  Now they want revenge from that 3-point road loss at Arizona on January 5th, which proved they could hang with the Wildcats.

Washington is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following three consecutive games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that make eight or more 3-pointers per game.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin +2

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers.  They have lost five of their last six games overall and have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games.  Now they are catching points at home to Illinois and will be out for revenge on the Fighting Illini after losing 69-79 to them on January 7th on the road.

But the Badgers didn't have their best player in Tyler Wahl for that game, and they have struggled without him.  He is back now and the Badgers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and looking to make a run.

We'll 'sell high' on Illinois, which is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall against an easy schedule.  Four of the six games were at home and the two road wins came at lowly Nebraska and Minnesota, arguably the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  They also lost at Northwestern in their road game prior.

Wisconsin is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Illinois is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  The Fighting Illini are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati +14

Houston has actually been way better on the road than it has been at home this season.  Let's just look at Houston's recent home games.  They lost outright as 19-point favorites to Temple, only beat South Florida by 6 as 23-point favorites and only beat UCF by 6 as 15-point favorites in three of their last four home games.

Cincinnati wants revenge from a 59-72 home loss to Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for the Bearcats, who have gone 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Bearcats have just one loss by more than 13 points this season, so they don't get blown out easily.

The Bearcats have a big advantage in rest and preparation as they come in on five days' rest while the Cougars come in on two days' rest after playing a road game at UCF on Wednesday, while the Bearcats last played on Sunday.

The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are fully healthy right now and playing well.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Boston as 3.5-point dogs.  They beat the Knicks by 9 as 2.5-point home favorites and also upset the Warriors by 18 as 3-point road dogs.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated to try and beat the defending champion Warriors.  This is a Warriors team that is just 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall and could be without Andrew Wiggins tonight.  They have just one win by double-digits and two wins by more than 6 points in their last 14 games overall, so they aren't blowing anyone out.

Toronto is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following two consecutive wins.  The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall with 10 outright upsets as underdogs.  They are way better than they get credit for, and we'll continue to back them until the oddsmakers and betting public catch up to them.  The Magic are catching too many points tonight against the Miami Heat.

Miami is in a letdown spot following a 98-95 win over the Boston Celtics last time out.  The Heat haven't been blowing out anyone as they have only two wins in their last 11 games by more than 8 points.  They won't be blowing out the Magic tonight, either.

Orlando is 7-0 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season.  Orlando is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Heat are 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win, and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  Orlando is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have lost a season-high four consecutive games with three of those losses coming by a combined 5 points.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight so they don't get swept on this five-game road trip.  A motivated Grizzlies team as a short favorite is one that I definitely want to get behind.

We will 'buy low' on the Grizzlies tonight, while also 'selling high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have gone 9-4 SU & 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Timberwolves have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule during this run, but this is a big step up in class for them tonight.

Memphis is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after having lost four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5

The USC Trojans are improving rapidly.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and have a huge home-court advantage, going 9-1 SU at home this season.  Now they want revenge from a 58-60 road loss at UCLA in their first meeting this season on January 5th.

The Trojans come back as 5-point home underdogs in the rematch, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  UCLA is coming off a loss at Arizona to end a 14-game winning streak.  

I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect in that next game.  That's especially the case for UCLA here as they were way more motivated to face Arizona than they will be to beat USC for a second time this season.

The Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  USC is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with UCLA.  Bet USC Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +6.5

Seattle is 16-4 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  That has played out here of late in conference play with the schedule getting easier for them.  The Redhawks are now 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with four wins by 15 points or more.

Sam Houston State is also a quality team at 15-5 this season with some impressive non-conference wins.  But the Bearkats should not be favored by 6.5 points over Seattle tonight.  This game should be much closer to PK, so we'll take advantage and back the value on the road underdog Redhawks.

Sam Houston State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seattle is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games.  Seattle beat Sam Houston State 78-63 last season and brought back almost their entire team this season.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Bet Seattle Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +9

The Brooklyn Nets are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 133-137 loss in Philadelphia last night.  They will be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days after playing their last five games on the road.  The Nets are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games without Kevin Durant with three losses by double-digits.  

Irving played 38 minutes, Claxton 38, Curry 34 and O-Neale 34 last night for the Nets.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons, and that's going to make it very difficult to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 11 days.  That makes it a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season tonight given the favorable spot.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Brooklyn is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team that wins less than 25% of their games.  The Nets are 14-39-2 ATS in their last 55 home games.  Detroit is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State -2

Michigan State is 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS at home this season with one of the losses coming to No. 1 ranked Purdue by a single point.  Iowa is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Nebraska by 16, Penn State by 4 and Ohio State by 16.  The Spartans should be bigger home favorites over the Hawkeyes tonight.

Michigan State is 17-2 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Iowa.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after playing a game as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/Memphis UNDER 151

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between SMU and Memphis.  Just looking at recent head-to-head history, this total has been set too high at 151 points.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings but would be 9-0 in the last nine meetings with a total of 151.  Memphis and SMU have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 134.6 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is over 16 points less than this total.  They have combined for 133 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings as well.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Lakers in a terrible spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days after a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Spurs as they were the Clippers.

That's especially the case considering the Lakers have already beaten the Spurs three times this season alone. That means the Spurs will be playing with triple-revenge, and thus they will be the more motivated team.

The Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They will be the way fresher team playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. The Lakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235

The books missed their mark badly with this opening total in this showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. These are two dead nuts OVER teams, especially with how they have been playing of late.

The Grizzlies have really slipped defensively of late allowing 112 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall. But they have scored 115 or more points in 12 of their last 14 games overall. They are without Steven Adams, which makes them even more of an OVER team.

The Golden State Warriors have been terrible defensively all season allowing 118.0 points per game. But they have gotten healthy recently and are scoring at will. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points in six consecutive games coming in.

The OVER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Warriors last seven games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last four games following a loss. Be the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler/Providence UNDER 139.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Providence beat Butler 72-52 for just 124 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 29th. Points will be hard to come by in the rematch as well tonight.

This has been an UNDER series. Butler and Providence have combined for 137 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 139.5-point total. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the single most underrated team in the NBA over the past couple seasons. They continue to get no respect as home underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

The Thunder are 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. That includes six outright upsets as underdogs, which they just have a habit of doing. They should be favored over the Hawks at home tonight.

The Thunder come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest. The Hawks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 12 days tonight. They are starting to wear down after getting upset by the Hornets as 7.5-point home favorites two games ago, they lost by 11 at Chicago as 1-point road dogs last time out.

The Hawks are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games playing on two days' rest. The Thunder are 25-11 ATS in the last 36 meetings. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. This team is way better than they get credit for, and they are as healthy as they have been all season right now.

Now the Magic take on the struggling Indiana Pacers, who are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS i n their last eight games overall. They are without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.2 PPG, 10.2 APG), and their recent struggles are due to missing one of the most underrated players in the NBA.

The Pacers ended a seven-game losing streak with a 116-110 comeback victory over Chicago last night. But that was a Bulls team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Now the Pacers are the team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with travel. Four players played at least 32 minutes for the Pacers last night, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Magic.

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on one days' rest. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +6.5

The Temple Owls are in the ultimate letdown spot. They are coming off a massive 56-55 upset road win at No. 1 ranked Houston. It's only human nature for them to have a letdown following one of the biggest wins in program history.

That's especially the case since they play a South Florida team that they've already beaten 68-64 on the road in their first meeting this season on January 4th. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them a second time.

South Florida is playing its best basketball of the season of late and is ready to pull off this upset. The Bulls upset ECU 81-70 as road underdogs and UCF 85-72 as home underdogs. They also only lost by 6 at Houston as 23-point dogs in going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

South Florida is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season. USF is 36-17-1 ATS in its last 54 road games. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet South Florida Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Temple UNDER 140

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between South Florida and Temple. Temple won the first meeting 68-64 for just 132 combined points. The books have set the bar too high in the rematch with a 140-point total, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Temple and South Florida have combined for 132, 122, 101, 144 and 112 points in the last five meetings. They have averaged just 122.2 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 18 points less than tonight's posted total. There's a ton of value on the UNDER tonight.

Temple is 12-0 UNDER in its last 12 Wednesday games. The UNDER is 9-3 in Owls last 12 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +17

The Georgia Bulldogs are off to a 13-6 SU & 10-9 ATS start in former Florida head coach Mike White's first season on the job. He is exceeding expectations already, and the Bulldogs are undervalued as 17-point road underdogs to Tennessee tonight.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Volunteers, who are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall and coming off a pair of double-digit road wins over LSU and Mississippi State. They have a huge game on deck against Texas Saturday and could be looking ahead to that one.

Georgia has had Tennessee's number, going 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Georgia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +17.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Florida Gators tonight. They have won four of their last five while going 4-0 ATS in their last four. They are now laying too many points to South Carolina tonight.

Conversely, we'll 'buy low' on the Gamecocks, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. This run followed up a 71-68 upset at Kentucky as 20-point dogs to flash their potential. They can hang with Florida, too.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is actually 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. South Carolina upset Florida as 7.5, 11.5 and 10.5-point dogs in its last three trips to Gainesville. Bet South Carolina Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 26th in the NBA in pace, 22nd in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. They have been even more of an UNDER team when Kawhi Leonard has been healthy, which he is right now.

The Lakers are more of an over team, but they have combined for 234 or fewer points in five of their last seven game overall with the UNDER going 6-1. They are missing Davis, Reaves and Walker while the Clippers are missing Wall and Kennard, and those losses hurt both teams more offensively than defensively.

Each of the first two meetings between the Clippers and Lakers this season have been very low scoring. They combined for 200 points in the first meeting on October 20th with a 226.5-point total. They combined for 215 points with a 219.5-point total in the 2nd meeting on November 9th. And now the books have jacked this total up to 232.5, so there's clearly big value on the UNDER.

The Lakers and Clippers have combined for 225 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Washington Wizards are playing much better of late since getting Bradley Beal back from injury. After upsetting the Knicks 116-105 as 5-point dogs two games ago, they came back and blasted the Magic 138-118 as 6.5-point home favorites.

Now the Wizards have had the last two days off and are as rested as they have been all season. They will also be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days as well as their 4th game in 11 days.

The Dallas Mavericks are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and don't deserve to be 7.5-point favorites here. In fact, they have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season at just 16-30-2 ATS in their 48 games. They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG) right now, which puts too much on Luka Doncic's shoulders.

The Wizards are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks with three outright upsets as 6, 6 and 7.5-point dogs as well as a 1-point loss as 4.5-point dogs. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Murray State/Southern Illinois UNDER 132

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between Southern Illinois and Murray State this season. The Salukis won 63-57 on the road for 120 combined points in their first meeting this season.

It will be more of the same in the rematch today with this game being played at a snail's pace. Southern Illinois ranks 323rd in adjusted tempo and 37th in adjusted defense and will control the tempo playing at home. Murray State ranks just 219th in adjusted tempo.

Southern Illinois is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The Salukis are 21-5 UNDER in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 138.5

This is a very high total for any game involving the Oklahoma Sooners. They are a dead nuts UNDER team, raking 325th in adjusted tempo and 57th in adjusted defense this season. They take on a TCU team that ranks 14th in adjusted defense.

It tends to be a defensive battle when these two teams get together. Indeed, Oklahoma and TCU have combined for 135, 100 and 128 points in their last three meetings, respectively. All three finished UNDER this 138.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Penn State/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +6.5

This is a very evenly matched game tonight. Penn State is 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS while Rutgers is 13-6 SU & 13-6 ATS. The Scarlet Knights deserve some respect for home-court advantage, but this line should be 3 or less, not 6.5. There's clearly value with the road underdog Nittany Lions.

Penn State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Rutgers with its lone loss coming by a single point, 58-59 as 5.5-point road dogs. I think this game comes down to the final possession, too.

The Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Penn State Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +8.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and have been very competitive even in losing efforts. Now they are catching too many points tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.

While the Spurs are rested on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, the Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 112-121 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It was their 3rd consecutive loss by 9 points or more.

The Blazers have no business being this heavily favored against anyone considering they are just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Lillard played 39 minutes, Simons 38, Grant 34 and Hart 32 last night, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Portland is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following an upset loss as a favorite. San Antonio is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland. Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Now they are catching too many points at home to the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Celtics are without both Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon tonight, Robert Williams is questionable. and Jayson Tatum will be paying through a wrist injury. They are laying too many points on the road tonight given their injury situation.

Orlando is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with Boston this season. The Magic won outright as 13-point road dogs, outright as 11-point road dogs and only lost by 6 as 9-point home dogs in their first three meetings this season.

Orlando is 5-0 ATS In its last five games following a loss. The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one day of rest. Boston is 1-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Bet the Magic Monday.

15* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Virginia Tech Hokies tonight. They have gone 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven losses by 10 points or fewer, including five losses by 5 points or less.

But the Hokies are now as healthy as they have been all season. They return home from three consecutive brutal road games at Virginia, Syracuse and Clemson. And I expect them to put it on the Duke Blue Devils, who have been one of the most overrated teams in the country because of the name on their uniform.

Duke is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Blue Devils have been terrible on the road, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season. Their lone win came by a single point at Boston College as 8-point favorites, and they lost by 11 as 6.5-point favorites at Wake Forest, by 24 as 4.5-point favorites at NC State and by 8 as 1-point favorites at Clemson.

The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

20* Nets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team especially now that they have all their scorers back and healthy.  The Warriors rank 1st in the NBA in pace and have taken a big step back on defense this season.  They have scored 118 or more points in five consecutive games, and the OVER has gone 5-1 in their last six games with combined scores of 234 or more points in all six games.

Kyrie Irving and company will have no problem getting up and down with the Warriors.  They beat a short-handed Warriors team 143-113 in their first meeting this season at home for 256 combined points.  The Warriors are expected to have all hands on deck for this game other than Wiseman and Iguodala, which hurts them more defensively than anything.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -4

This line should be closer to 49ers -7.  The Dallas Cowboys are getting too much respect for their win in prime time Monday Night over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They beat a washed up Tom Brady who was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  Dak Prescott had a career game, and just everything that could go right for Dallas did.

Now the Cowboys are in a terrible spot playing their 4th consecutive road game and on a short week.  These haven't been short trips either as all four have been 700-plus miles for the Cowboys.  They won't have much left in the tank this week for the 49ers, who played last Saturday and have had two extra days to rest and prepare for this game than the Cowboys.  This is where the Cowboys' season comes to an end in blowout fashion.

They have to play the hottest team in the NFL in the 49ers, who have won 10 consecutive game the last six of which have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback.  The 49ers have scored 35-plus points in five of the six games started by Purdy with the lone exception being against the Seahawks in his second start on the road.  They also kneeled at the 1-yard line to end that game.  Purdy has a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and is averaging 9 yards per attempt.

The 49ers rank 5th in scoring offense at 27.3 points per game, 5th in total offense at 373.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 302.3 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are the most complete team in the NFL with almost zero weaknesses.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with all of their key weapons and defenders healthy.

Things won't come nearly as easy for Dak Prescott as they did against the Bucs.  The Cowboys have a suspect offensive line and the 49ers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, plus they give up nothing against the run.  Purdy is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which will negate Dallas' pass rush, which is the strength of their team.  Micah Parsons won't be all over Purdy like he was all over Tom Brady.  The Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Purdy will be able to exploit, plus the 49ers will have their way on the ground against the Cowboys, too.  They have rushed for 153 or more yards in all six games with Purdy under center.

Dallas was not playing well prior to the Tampa Bay game.  They lost 26-6 at Washington in Week 18 against third-string QB Sam Howell.  They beat a Titans team that was resting starters and playing a 3rd-string QB and needed to pull away in the 4th quarter just to do that.  They needed a late turnover from the Eagles to beat them with backup QB Minshew at home.  They lost to the Jaguars in OT on the road.  And they needed a last-second drive to beat the lowly Houston Texans by 4 at home.  They were playing like shit prior to that win over the Bucs, which was clearly the aberration.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more while outgaining nine of their 10 opponents.  The lone exception was against the Raiders on January 1st which was clearly a letdown spot.  The 49ers spent NYE in Vegas and probably partied too hard, thinking they'd just have to show up to win against a backup QB.  That performance can be forgiven.  When they have been locked in, they have been absolutely dominant.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by an average of 16.2 points per game during their 10-game winning streak.

The 49ers have a huge advantage in the coaching department with Shanahan over McCarthy, too.  Shanahan is 10-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  The 49ers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games dating back to last season.  The 49ers won 23-17 at Dallas in the playoffs last season.  The Cowboys have exactly one playoff road win since 1993.  Dak is 1-4 ATS in his playoff career.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* Bengals/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -5.5

These are two teams coming off misleading results in the Wild Card Round.  The Bills should have beaten the Dolphins by more when you look at the numbers, while the Bengals should have lost outright to the Ravens.  Those misleading results have provided us with some line value to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills this week.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites against the Bengals at home this week when you factor in everything.

The Bills have won eight consecutive games and are playing with a lot of motivation for Damar Hamlin, plus the fact that they've never won a Super Bowl and feel like they should have won last year.  They are on a mission this season, and it's the defending AFC champion Bengals standing in their way this week, which only adds to the motivation.

The Bills felt like they just had to show up to win last week, and it showed after jumping out to a 17-0 lead they found themselves in a dog fight with the Dolphins.  They survived 34-31, but it was a bigger blowout than the final score.  The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards and held to them to just 231 total yards, which should make it impossible for them to score 31 points.  But the Bills committed three turnovers that set up easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins.  Look for them to clean it up this week.

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24-17 at home last week.  They won despite getting outgained by 130 yards and racking up only 234 yards of total offense.  That came a week after the Bengals beat the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18 despite getting outgained by 129 yards and being held to 257 yards.  Their luck runs out this week on the road in a hostile environment against a much better team in the Bills.

A big reason the Bengals have struggled on offense the past two weeks averaging just 245.5 yards per game against the Ravens is because of a banged-up offensive line.  The Bengals will now be down three starters on the offensive line this week against the Bills.  Joe Burrow is going to be under duress the entire game.  He was sacked a ton in the playoffs last year, but his defense and his kicker bailed him out.  The defense won't stop this potent Bills offense, and he won't be bailed out this week when he's getting sacked more than a handful of times.  And this is coming from one of the biggest Burrow believers you will find.  I just think this is too much for him to handle this week.

Buffalo averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even on a yards per play basis.  This shows Buffalo is by far the superior team.  

The Bills are 7-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Sean McDermott is 11-1 ATS following a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bills are 7-0 ATS following a win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Mavericks UNDER 224.5

The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks just met less than two weeks ago on January 10th.  The Clippers won that game 113-101 at home for just 214 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I expect more of the same in the rematch here Sunday.

This has been a very low scoring series as it is.  The Clippers and Mavericks have combined for 217 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 217 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.

Injuries to both teams will take away from the offense of both teams and help us cash this UNDER ticket.  The Clippers will be without both John Wall (11.4 PPG, 5.2 APG) and Luke Kennard (8.7 PPG, 46.2% 3-pointers), while the Mavericks will be without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Butler/UConn UNDER 137.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting of the season between Butler and UConn.  The Huskies won the first meeting 68-46 on December 17th for just 114 combined points.  Oddsmakers have set the total too high for the rematch Sunday, which will be an early 12:00 EST sleepy start time, which also favors the UNDER.

UConn is one of the best defensive teams in the country holding opponents to 63.9 points per game and 40.4% shooting.  It's safe to say the Huskies will be in a foul mood after losing five of their last six games overall, and I expect it show on the defensive end more than anything with max intensity.

The same can be said for Butler, which will be highly motivated for revenge while also looking to bounce back from losing three of their last four.  The Bulldogs allow 66.6 points per game and 43.7% shooting this season.  But they have been atrocious on offense, scoring 61 or fewer points in six of their last nine games overall, including 56 or fewer in five of those.

Butler and UConn has squared off five times as Big East opponents over the last three seasons.  They have combined for 135 or fewer points in all five meetings and an average of just 125.2 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Bulldogs last nine games overall.  Butler is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog this season.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 UNDER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Michigan State/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 138.5

This will be an early, sleepy start time for a Big Ten matchup Sunday at 12:00 EST between the Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers.  I expect points to be hard to come by for both teams for a couple of reasons.

The Spartans are without Malik Hall (9.9 PPG, 52.5% shooting) right now.  They have gone UNDER the total in their two games since losing him, falling 63-64 to Purdue for 127 combined points and beating Rutgers 70-57 for 127 combined points.  The Spartans have been held to 70 points or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

The Indian Hoosiers are without Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 49.5% shooting) and Xavier Johnson (9.9 PPG, 37% 3-pointers) right now which has hampered their offense as well.  They are coming off an aberration shooting performance making 61.8% against Illinois last time out, which has inflated this total.  They were held to 63 and 66 points in their previous two games by Wisconsin and Penn State, respectively.

Michigan State and Indiana have combined for 137, 122, 149, 130 and 125 points in their last five meetings.  As you can see, four of the five meetings have seen less than this 138.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Santa Clara +12.5

Santa Clara wants revenge from a 64-67 home loss to St. Mary's in their first meeting on December 31st as 6-point underdogs.  Now the books have moved this number 6.5 points to St. Mary's -12.5, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.

The reason the books have over-adjusted is because St. Mary's is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and making backers a lot of money.  But it's time to 'sell high' on them now, and it's time to back a Broncos team that has consistently been disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two losses during this stretch coming by 3 to St. Mary's and by 5 to Gonzaga.

Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with St. Mary's.  Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 11 points or less, and each of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Santa Clara/St. Mary's UNDER 135

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Santa Clara and St. Mary's this season.  St. Mary's won 67-64 on December 31st for 131 combined points in their first meeting.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

St. Mary's is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after a game where it outrebounded its last opponent by 15 boards or more.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Broncos last 13 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Several of those few losses actually came when they had key guys suspended.  But now the are basically as healthy as they have been all season.

This line has been adjusted too much in Washington's favor due to Orlando playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Magic had four days off prior to beating the Pelicans 123-110 at home last night.  Only Franz Wagner played more than 26 minutes for the Magic in that win, so they will still be fresh and ready for another big effort tonight.

Washington has no business laying this big of a number to anyone.  The Wizards are 19-26 on the season and just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with four losses by 9 points or more, and one win coming by 3 points.  They are getting too much respect for their upset win at New York last time out, which was a revenge game for them after recently losing to the Knicks two games prior.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games this season.  Washington is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Washington is also 14-37-1 ATS in its last 52 games when playing on two days' rest.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its las six trips to Washington.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech/Clemson UNDER 142

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Virginia Tech and Clemson this season.  Clemson won the first meeting 68-65 for just 133 combined points on the road on January 4th.  That total was set at 136.5, and now we are getting a 142-point total in the rematch.  The books have made a big mistake adjusting this total up.

Virginia Tech and Clemson have combined for 141 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive meetings, which makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 142-point total.  Each of the last eight meetings have seen 133 or fewer combined points at the end or regulation and an average of just 125.1 combined points per game, which is 17 points less than this posted total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors ML +100

The Boston Celtics will be without leading scorer Jayson Tatum (31.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.3 APG) tonight against the Toronto Raptors.  Not only that, but this is a massive letdown spot for the Celtics after finally getting revenge on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night in OT at home.  They will fall flat tonight at Toronto following that victory.

Toronto will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive road losses coming in.  Unlike the Celtics, the Raptors are fully healthy right now.  And them at full strength and at home is better than Boston without Tatum.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Chiefs UNDER 53

This total is way too high given how well both of these defenses have been playing down the stretch, especially the Chiefs.  The improvement of this Kansas City defense has been flying under the radar.  They have allowed just 17.8 points per game and 285 yards per game in their last four games overall.

The Jaguars have allowed just 13 points per game and 284 yards per game in their last four games overall.  That includes the 30 points they allowed to the Chargers last week, which was very fluky because it came with five turnovers from the Jaguars who gave the Chargers a ton of short fields en route to a 27-0 lead.  That game saw 61 combined points with a big Jaguars comeback, but it shouldn't have since the Chargers only had 320 total yards while the Jaguars had 390 in comeback mode.  That result has inflated this total this week.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 2nd meeting between the Chiefs and Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium this season.  The Chiefs won that first meeting 27-17 for just 44 combined points.  The Jaguars were held to just 315 total yards in defeat.  The Chiefs moved the ball well, but I expect the Jaguars to be much better defensively in the rematch.  And Kansas City is good at sitting on the ball and milking clock with a lead, which is why they always tend to play in closer game because they quit scoring and let teams back in it.  That makes them a great UNDER team.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Chiefs eight home games this season with an average of just 44.5 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State ML -115

The Wyoming Cowboys are broken this season.  They are 5-13 on the season including 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have a ton of key injuries they are dealing with, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  And books continue to over-adjust for their home-court advantage, which has been non-existent this season.

Colorado State beat Fresno State by 22, upset UNLV on the road and played a very good San Diego State team to a 6-point game last time out in three of its last four games.  The Rams are by far the superior team here and should be favored on the road.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/LSU UNDER 131

The Tennessee Vols are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense and are holding opponents to 54.2 points per game and 33.6% shooting, which is 17 points per game less than their season averages.  But the Vols aren't a very efficiency offensive team, whooting 44.3% as a team.

The LSU Tigers rank 95th in adjusted defense and are holding opponents to 67.1 points per game and 42.9% shooting.  The Tigers shoot just 42.7% as a team and will struggle to get any buckets against Tennessee.  LSU Has scored 49, 66, 56 and 56 points in its last four games coming in, respectively.

Tennessee is 6-0 UNDER after going over the total in its previous game this season.  LSU is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona +1

The UCLA Bruins have won 14 consecutive games and were fortunate to win four of their last six as they needed some heroics late.  Their luck runs out this week and the streak stops here in their toughest game of the season at Arizona.

The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere this afternoon in Tuscon.  Arizona won its final two meetings with Arizona last season 76-66 at home and 84-76 in the Pac-12 Tournament.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

UCLA is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, so we are buying at the very bottom on them as short home favorites over the Iowa Hawkeyes today.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three of those wins coming at home.  They are 1-2 in true road games in Big Ten play this season with losses by 16 at Nebraska and by 4 at Penn State plus an upset win at Rutgers.

The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul/Providence UNDER 147.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between DePaul and Providence this season.  Providence won 74-59 for just 133 combined points in that first meeting while shooting 48% from the field and 50% from 3-point range.  It's hard seeing them shoot that well again, and we have a total of 147.5 here which is 14.5 points more than what they combined for in that first meeting.

In fact, DePaul and Providence have combined for 133 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged just 122.4 combined points at the end of regulation in those five meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than this posted total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Kansas State Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Texas Tech today.  The Red Raiders are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are still in search of their first Big 12 victory with five of the six losses coming by 7 points or fewer, so it's not like they haven't been competitive.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Kansas State Wildcats.  They are 16-2 SU & 12-5 ATS this season.  The Wildcats are coming off an upset win over rival Kansas, so that makes this a massive letdown spot now.  They have been celebrating that win since Tuesday and won't be fully focused for Texas Tech today.

Texas Tech has won 8 of its last 10 meetings with Kansas State outright.  The Red Raiders have a great shot to pull off the upset today, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on TCU +7.5

The TCU Horned Frogs are 14-4 this season with all four losses coming by single-digits, including three by 4 points or fewer.  They won't bet getting blown out by Kansas today, either.

The Jayhawks have proven to be very vulnerable of late, especially at home.  They have gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 14 as 21.5-point home favorites over Harvard, won by 2 as 10-point home favorites over Oklahoma State, won by 4 as 10.5-point home favorites over Oklahoma and won by 2 as 7.5-point home favorites over Iowa State.

TCU beat Kansas 74-64 as 6-point home dogs and only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two regular season meetings last year, and Kansas went on to win the National Championship.  The Horned Frogs are 24-9-4 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning record.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Horned Frogs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -6

The Brooklyn Nets have been a disaster without Kevin Durant.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 11 at home to Boston as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to OKC as 4.5-point favorites, by 8 at San Antonio as 2.5-point favorites and by 5 at Phoenix as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Nets are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days as well as their 3rd consecutive road game.  Kyrie Irving played 38 minutes, Nic Claxton 35 minutes, Seth Curry 36 minutes, Royce O'Neale 34 minutes and Joe Harris 31 minutes last night for the Nets.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight, and now they have to play in altitude in Salt Lake City to make matters worse.

The Jazz are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the 76ers as 7-point dogs.  They upset the Timberwolves, crushed the Clippers by 23 and beat the Cavaliers and Magic during this stretch.  Unlike the Nets, the Jazz are fully healthy right now and have been dangerous when that's the case.

The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Utah is 19-8 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 home games following three or more consecutive ATS wins.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

20* Heat/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML -115

The Miami Heat are almost fully healthy and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now as a result.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with two wins over Milwaukee and a 26-point win at New Orleans last time out.

The Heat should continue their momentum tonight against one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks are just 15-29-2 ATS on the season.  They are missing Maxi Kleber and now will be without Christian Wood after suffering a fractured thumb last game.  That's a huge loss as Wood has scored 19-plus points in 10 of his last 12 games overall and was starting to form a great chemistry with Luka Doncic.

Plays against home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Dallas) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and needed two heroic 3's by Doncic to force OT and double-OT in a win over the Lakers for their lone victory during this stretch.  Their five losses came by 17, 17, 12, 11 and 8 points.

Miami is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 trips to Dallas, and 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.  The Mavericks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Heat on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Several of those few losses actually came when they had key guys suspended.  But now the are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and this is a great spot for them coming in on four days' rest after being off since January 15th.

The New Orleans have been playing without their two best players in Zion Williamson (26.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.6 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.7 APG) and it's no surprise they have struggled without them.  Both remain out, plus key role player Herbert Jones (10.0 PPG) is questionable after missing the past four games.  Another role player in Naji Marshall (10.5 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Pelicans are just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Orlando is 10-2 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Magic are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +11

The Stanford Cardinal are 5-12 this season and should not be double-digit favorites against anyone in the Pac-12, including Oregon State.  The Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall which included a 22-point loss to Cal and a 17-point loss to Washington.

Oregon State is also 0-5 SU in its last five games, but has been more competitive going 3-2 ATS.  The Beavers only lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Oregon, by 12 as 15-point home dogs to Arizona and by 5 as 9-point home dogs to Arizona State.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Oregon State pulled the 68-63 upset as 6-point road dogs in 2020 and the 73-62 upset as 5-point road dogs in 2021.  

The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as home underdogs.  Stanford is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 60 points or less last game.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the most improved teams in the country at 15-3 this season.  They are getting disrespected here as 5-point home underdogs to UCLA.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Bruins, who are riding a 13-game winning streak following consecutive losses to Illinois and Baylor.  I think this is where the streak comes to an end.  They have survived in three of their last five games beating Washington State by 1, USC by 2 and needing a double-digit comeback to beat Colorado at home last time out.  Their luck runs out tonight.

UCLA is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after winning 12 or more of its last 15 games.  Arizona State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Bruins are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The home team is 17-6-2 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  A bad ASU team upset UCLA 87-84 as 10-point home dogs last season.  Take Arizona State Thursday.

20* Warriors/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 241

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  It's safe to say the Celtics and Warriors are very familiar with one another after meeting in the NBA Finals last season.  They also played once this season, and all recent meeting went well UNDER this 241-point total.

Indeed, the Warriors and Celtics combined for 230 points in their first meeting this season.  They combined for 228 or fewer points in all six NBA Finals games.  In fact, they have combined for 233 or fewer points in 20 consecutive meetings, making for a 20-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 241-point total.  The UNDER is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 244.5

Both the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers are dead nuts OVER teams right now. They are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, and they both play little defense.

The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with combined scores of 270, 247, 250, 253 and 251 points. The 270-point effort came against the Lakers. They also combined for 254 points in their previous meeting this season. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

The Lakers are coming off 272 combined points against the Houston Rockets. The OVER is 20-7-1 in Lakers last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Lakers last 16 games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Rockets OVER 236.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team. They have combined for 236 or more points with their opponents in six of their last eight games overall. They play fast and play no defense.

The Houston Rockets have combined for 272, 255 and 250 points in three of their last four games coming in with the only exception being the Clippers, who are a dead nuts under team when playing at home. The Rockets also play fast and play no defense.

The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games. The OVER is 15-4 in Hornets last 19 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Drake -7

The Drake Bulldogs are finally starting to play up to their potential. They have won three consecutive games to improve to 14-5 this season including a pair of blowout home wins over Murray State by 18 and Bradley by 25.

The Bulldogs are 9-0 at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference. Now they'll be seeking revenge from a 49-52 loss at Missouri State in their first meeting this season. This will play out much differently the 2nd time around with the Bulldogs at home, and I expect a blowout victory in their favor.

Missouri State is 2-5 SU in true road games this season including losses at St. Mary's by 20, at Belmont by 13 and at Illinois State by 10. Those latter two losses came in their last two road games and were very poor performances as both Belmont and Illinois State are down this season. Roll with Drake Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State ML -125

The Indiana State Sycamores are 13-6 this season and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following two consecutive conference losses to Southern Illinois and Missouri State. I look for them to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.

Indiana State is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Sycamores are 21-5 SU in their last 26 home meetings with the Braves.

Bradley is 2-4 SU in true road games this season with one of those wins coming by 2 at SIU-Edwardsville as a 6-point favorites. They lost by 25 at Drake as a 2.5-point dog, lost by 9 at Murray State as a 5.5-point dog, lost by 3 at Belmont as a 1-point favorite and lost by 22 at Utah State as a 7.5-point dog.

The Braves are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games. The home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Florida/Texas A&M UNDER 138

The Florida Gators and Texas A&M Aggies will be playing in a rematch from a 66-63 win by the Aggies on January 4th which saw just 129 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I expect more of the same in the rematch here just two weeks later.

Texas A&M is a very good defensive team allowing just 66.4 points per game and 40.4% shooting on the season. Florida has been nearly identical, allowing just 66.4 points per game on 40.3% shooting. Points will be hard to come by in this rematch.

Florida is 9-1 UNDER vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in Gators last nine games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six home games. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.