Winning Sports Picks

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

I'm going to back the Cleveland Indians on the run line today due to the massive edge they have on the mound.  It also doesn't hurt that they come in with a lot of confidence at the plate after throttling the Cincinnati Reds 15-6 Monday.

Look for Danny Salazar to continue his torrid start to 2016.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two home starts.  Salazar has struck out 53 batters in 42 2/3 innings.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in the majors this season.  He is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.640 WHIP in two road starts.  Simon gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 2/3 innings in his lone start at Cleveland last season.

Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 42-12 (77.8%, +28.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-7 against the run line (-8.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors are the most difficult team to prepare for in the NBA.  The Oklahoma City Thunder won't be ready for the challenges they'll face in Game 1.  They may do better as the series goes on, but I give the Warriors a big advantage in Game 1.

Look at what the Warriors have done in Game 1's so far.  They beat the Rockets 104-78 in Game 1 of their opening round series, and then throttled the Blazers 118-106 in Game 1 of the second round.  That contest was a bigger blowout than the final score even indicated as the Blazers made a big run in the 4th quarter with the game already decided.

The Warriors have won all three meetings with the Thunder this season.  They won by 15 and 8 points at home, and in overtime on the road.  I believe their small ball approach will shine through in Game 1, and the Thunder will be the team that has to adjust as this series goes on, not Golden State.

Golden State is 11-1 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Golden State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -147

The Detroit Tigers have gone 2-11 in their last 13 games overall.  Most of those have come on the road with just three home games during that stretch.  It's safe to say they'll be motivated to get back on track as they face the league-worst Minnesota Twins (10-26) at home this series.

I like their chances of taking Game 1 tonight with ace Jordan Zimmerman on the mound.  He has been the one consistent starter in their rotation, going 5-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in seven starts.  Zimmerman is also 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.

Jose Berrios may have a bright future for Minnesota, but he has struggled in his rookie season thus far.  Berrios is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.

Minnesota is 0-13 (-14.0 Units) against the money line after two straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  Zimmerman is 48-12 (+25.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career.  The Twins are 1-13 (-11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.  Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Mets -124

The New York Mets have lost the first two games of this series to the Colorado Rockies.  They certainly want to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 3 today, and I look for them to get the job done with the edge they have on the mound this afternoon.

Jacob DeGrom is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five starts this season.  Tyler Chatwood has been good on the road for the Rockies, but he's 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field this season.  Degrom has faced the Rockies twice, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 15 shutout innings and striking out 19.

New York is 15-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  DeGrom is 9-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.

DeGrom is 17-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.  The Mets are 8-0 in DeGrom's last 8 Sunday starts.  New York is 12-4 in DeGrom's last 16 road starts.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

15* Heat/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Miami +4.5

The Miami Heat overcame a 3-2 deficit int he first round and won the final two games against the Charlotte Hornets.  After winning Game 6 against the Raptors to force Game 7, I trust the Heat to get the job done today.

Miami is a veteran bunch that has been in these pressure-packed situations before.  Toronto has never been to the Conference Finals, and that pressure will be felt by their players more tonight.  Dwayne Wade and company relish this stage.

From a basketball perspective, I like what the Heat did in Game 6 by going small.  They scored 103 points, which was the most they put up in any game this series.  They'll go small again and it will work here as their small lineup with Wade, Joe Johnson, Goran Dragic, Justice Winslow and Josh McRoberts will be key to victory.

The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 Sunday games.  Miami is 28-12-1 ATS in its last 41 conference semifinal games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 playoff games.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* Cardinals/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -103

The St. Louis Cardinals lost Game 1 of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, but they're primed to get revenge in Game 2 due to the massive advantage they have on the mound.  Plus, we're getting them at nearly even money here.

Carlos Martinez is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in two road starts.  In two starts against the Dodgers last season, Martinez went 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA while allowing just one earned run and four hits with 19 strikeouts in 14 innings.

Scott Kazmir has completely lost it for the Dodgers.  The left-hander is 2-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has already allowed a whopping 9 homers in 37 1/3 innings pitched this year.

Kazmir is 0-9 (-11.4 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last two seasons.  Martinez is 16-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 13-3 in Martinez's last 16 road starts.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -130

The Arizona Diamondbacks are hungry for a victory after losing three straight coming in.  They have dropped the first two games of this series to the Giants, but now they finally have the edge on the mound tonight, and that will lead them to victory in Game 3.

Pat Corbin has been solid this season at 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in seven starts.  Corbin is 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 career starts against San Francisco.  Better yet, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants, pitching 13 shutout innings in the process.

Jake Peavy is simply done for and will find himself out of the Giants' rotation before long.  The right-hander is 1-4 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 14.25 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in three road starts.  Peavy has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last three starts against Arizona, posting a 7.20 ERA in the process.

Peavy is 32-63 (-26.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  Peavy is 2-14 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last three seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 30-10 in Corbin's last 40 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Arizona is 8-2 in Corbin's last 10 Saturday starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -125

The Toronto Blue Jays are 19-7 in their last 26 meetings with the Rangers, including 11-2 in their last 13 meetings in Texas.  That domination should continue Saturday considering the massive advantage the Blue Jays have on the mound tonight.

Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues, going 1-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in four career starts against the Rangers as well.

Colby Lewis is off to a solid start for the Rangers at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in seven starts.  However, the Blue Jays are his nemesis.  Lewis is 3-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 career starts against Toronto.

Toronto is 60-31 (+15.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 10-1 in Estrada's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Toronto is 26-9 in its last 35 vs. AL West opponents.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -114

The New York Mets are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies today.  I'll gladly back them at this price considering the massive edge I believe they have on the mound in this one.

Matt Harvey is undervalued right now due to a slow start that has him sitting at 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA.  But Harvey has owned the Rockies, going 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.565 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has given up just 1 earned run in 23 innings against the Rockies.

Jon Gray is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts this season for the Rockies, including 0-0 with an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two home starts.  Gray is also 0-0 with a 9.39 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in two career starts against New York.  He gave up 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in his lone home start against the Mets last season.

Colorado is 10-31 (-21.3 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last three seasons.  The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 Friday games.  New York is 24-8 in its last 32 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rockies are 1-7 in their last eight home games.  Colorado is 1-6 in Gray's last seven starts.  Take the Mets Friday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami -4

The Miami Heat get the nod as only 4-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors at home in Game 6.  This veteran squad will take care of business tonight and force a Game 7, just as they did against the Charlotte Hornets last series.

The Heat faced two elimination games against the Hornets in the opening round.  They won Game 6 97-90 in Charlotte before cruising to a 106-73 home victory in Game 7.  They can certainly draw from how they played in those pressure-packed games and use that to get them through this huge Game 6.

The Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Miami is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 Friday games.  The Heat are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 conference semifinal games.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -1.5

The San Antonio Spurs showed a lot of resiliency in Game 3 when they went into Oklahoma City and won 100-96 to gain back home-court advantage.  But after losing Game 5 at home, they now find themselves facing elimination.

This veteran team will not be phased by this situation.  The refs know they owe the Spurs as well after they missed two calls in the final minute that aided the Thunder in a 95-91 victory.  The NBA confirmed those missed calls in the media.  Look for the refs to favor the Spurs in Game 6 to help aid their victory and send this series back to San Antonio.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -132

The San Diego Padres just swept a double-header with the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.  It was the first time that the Cubs lost two straight games all season.  This is clearly a letdown spot now for the Padres, not to mentioned they'll be fatigued after that double-header.

Jimmy Nelson has been one of the more underrated starters in the league this season.  He is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in four home starts.

Nelson has dominated the Padres in two career starts against them.  He has gone 1-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in those two starts, giving up just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners over 11 2/3 innings.

San Diego is 9-30 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 2-17 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last two seasons.  The Padres are 8-20 in James Shields' last 28 starts.  Milwaukee is 7-2 in Nelson's last nine home starts, and 5-1 in his last six starts overall.  Take the Brewers Thursday.

20* Heat/Raptors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5

I believe the Toronto Raptors miss Jonas Valanciunas more than the Miami Heat miss Hassan Whiteside.  That was pretty evident in Game 4 as the Heat were able to keep Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan out of the paint.  The duo combined for 6 of 28 from the floor and totaled 19 points.

Valanciunas has been the best player in this series for the Raptors, averaging 18.3 points on 64.9 percent shooting and 12.7 rebounds per contest.  DeRozan has shot just 33 percent and 3 of 19 from beyond the arc this postseason.  Lowry is shooting 33.1 percent overall and 19.7 percent from 3 in the playoffs.

I really trust Dwyane Wade in big moments like this Game 5.  He has been coming through time and time again for the Heat.  Wade has totaled 68 points while making 26 of 49 shots in his last two games.  With this game likely to come down to the wire again, I like the value we are getting with the +5, and I trust in Wade to deliver late once again.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Miami is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 conference semifinals games.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -133

After losing Game 1 of this series 3-2 to the Cincinnati Reds, I fully expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to come back with a victory in Game 2.  This team is highly motivated right now after losing six of their last eight games overall.

I'll gladly back Juan Nicasio, who is 3-3 with a 3.16 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three.  One of those starts came against Cincinnati as Nicasio pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-1 victory on April 29.

Alfredo Simon is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.099 WHIP in five starts this season, giving up 20 earned runs and 42 base runners in 20 innings.  Simon is 0-2 with a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 4-19 (-15.5 Units) against the money line off a one run win over a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Reds are 27-55 in their last 82 overall.  Cincinnati is 17-43 in its last 60 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Pirates Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7.5

It's becoming more and more clear that Game 1 of this series was an aberration when the Spurs beat the Thunder by 32 points as everything went right for them.  Every other meeting between these teams this season has pretty much favored the Thunder and close games.

The Thunder are now 4-4 against the Spurs this season with three of their four losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Their adjustments are working as this series progresses.  After having 39 assists in Game 1, the Spurs had 19 assists in each of their next two games, and then just 12 in the Game 4 loss Sunday.

After torching the Thunder for 79 points on 33-of-44 shooting in the first two games of this series, LaMarcus Aldridge has been held to 44 points on 16-of-39 shooting over the past two games.  Tim Duncan is a mere shell of his former self, and the Spurs' big men are really starting to get exposed, including Boris Diaw and David West, who are both too slow.

The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600  Oklahoma City is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +5

The Portland Trail Blazers arguably should have won each of the last two games in this series.  They let a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter slip away in Game 2, but came back strong with a 120-108 victory over the Warriors in Game 3.

It's amazing the level of confidence the Warriors play with at home compared to on the road.  Putting up 120 points on this Golden State team is no small feat.  The Blazers are now 32-13 on their home floor for the season, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.0 points per game.

Stephen Curry is expected to sit Game 4 as well.  He likely will not come back until Game 5 or later, so I expect the Warriors to be needing him for Game 5 with this series tied 2-2.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset again tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Plays against road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Blazers in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -113

Getting the Pirates at nearly even money against the Reds is a gift from oddsmakers almost any time it's available.  That's the case tonight as the Pirates come in undervalued due to losing five of their last seven games overall, which also has them motivated here.  But theri last two series have come against the Cubs and Cardinals.

The Reds are just 13-19 on the season and clearly one of the worst teams in baseball.  Their bullpen is on pace to be historically bad, which can always squander anything they get from their starting pitching.  Their bullpen has posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.630 WHIP on the season.

Jon Niese is 3-1 in spite of a 5.94 ERA for the Pirates, but he's better than he's shown so far.  Niese has owned the Reds recently, giving up just 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings for a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts against them.

Cincinnati is 4-19 (-15.2 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Niese is 16-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career.  The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 27-57 in their last 84 during game 1 of a series.  Take the Pirates Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will even this series up with the San Antonio Spurs with a victory in Game 4 today.  This is essentially the series right here, and they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want any chance of keeping their NBA title hopes alive.

The Thunder have proven they can hang with the Spurs in their last two games.  They won Game 2 in San Antonio before losing by just 4 at home in Game 3.  They certainly have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with a 34-11 record in Oklahoma City this year.  It will be rocking tonight.

Plays against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.

Oklahoma City is 63-39 ATS in its last 102 games following a home loss.  The Thunder are 74-49 ATS in their last 123 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four.  The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 29-10-2 ATS in its last 41 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona Diamondbacks -140

The Arizona Diamondbacks just needed a series against the league-worst Atlanta Braves (7-22) to get back on track. After losing six in a row, the Diamondbacks have won each of the first two games of this series with the Braves, and now I expect them to cap off the sweep with another victory in Game 3 Sunday.

Pat Corbin has pitched very well outside of Arizona this season.  The left-hander is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in three road starts.  Corbin has never lost to the Braves, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against them.  He has pitched 13 2/3 scoreless innings in those two starts.

Mike Foltynewicz is no more than a fill-in starter for the Braves.  He is 0-1 with a 9.81 ERA and 2.725 WHIP in one start this year.  He gave up 3 homers and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings against the Mets on May 2nd.  Foltynewicz has also never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with an 8.70 ERA and 1.934 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.

Atlanta is 1-13 (-11.1 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Corbin's last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 21-7 in Corbin's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +105

The wrong team is favored here.  The Milwaukee Brewers want revenge after losing the first two games of this series to the Res, and they should get it today behind the advantage they have on the mound.

Jimmy Nelson is having a fabulous season.  He is 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in six starts and clearly the ace of this Milwaukee staff.  He'll be opposed by Brandon Finnegan, who is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts for the Reds, including 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA in three home starts.

The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Milwaukee is 8-2 in Nelson's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 26-53 in their last 79 overall.  Cincinnati is 1-4 in Finnegan's last five starts.  Roll with the Brewers Saturday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value in Game 3 as 5.5-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  I still believe they are the better team in this series, and they certainly want to re-gain home-court advantage after losing it in Game 1's overtime loss.

But they showed huge resilience with their Game 2 overtime victory.  The Raptors trailed late before rallying behind Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas.  And they even overcame a 14-of-26 performance from the free throw line, which is uncharacteristic for them considering they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league.

The Raptors are 32-12 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Miami is 15-29 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  Because they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, the Raptors could not possibly be more undervalued right now.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record with 25 3-pointers in Game 2's blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks.  They have made a whopping 40 3-pointers in the first two games of this series.  Look for the Hawks to make the proper adjustments so they Cavs don't continue beating them from outside.

I like the fact that this is a must-win for the Hawks, who cannot afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory over the Cavaliers tonight, and I believe it will be good enough to get the job done.

The Hawks have gone 30-14 at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs.  They outscored the Celtics by a combined 45 points in their three home games last round.  It would have been more had the Celtics not made a ferocious comeback in Game 1 of that series.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -169

I don't often lay this big of juice in baseball, but I believe the New York Mets are more than worthy of it today as they take on the lowly San Diego Padres.  The Mets are playing as well as anyone right now as they are 15-4 in their last 19 games overall.

Jacob DeGrom looks to continue his dominant start to the season.  The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in three starts this year.  He is also 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.250 WHIP in his lone career start against San Diego, giving up just two base runners in 8 innings of a 7-0 road victory last year.

Colin Rea is nowhere near on DeGrom's level for the Padres.  He is 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two home starts.  The Padres are just 11-17 on the season and one of the worst teams in baseball.

DeGrom is 8-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  DeGrom is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Take this combined 20-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Mets Thursday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors represent my favorite play of the 2nd round in Game 2 against the Miami Heat tonight.  After losing Game 1 in overtime, this is now a must-win for the Raptors as they simply cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series with the next two games in Miami.

After all, Toronto dominated Miami in the season series, winning each of the final three meetings for a 3-1 lead.  It won by 14 on the road, by 20 and by 8 at home over the Heat.  Look for the Raptors to get back to their domination given the situation, and also for the Heat to relax a little now that they've already won back home-court advantage in this series.

The difference is Game 1 was 3-point shooting.  The Heat shot 8-of-11 (72.7%) from distance, while the Raptors were just 5-of-21 (23.8%).  The Raptors are the much better 3-point shooting team, so look for the roles to be reversed in Game 2 and for the Heat to not be nearly as accurate as they were in Game 1.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscored opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 32-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games following a road win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks arguably should have won Game 1, but they found a way to lose by 11 after leading with just over 4 minutes to go.  They didn't make a field goal in those final four minutes until making a meaningless basket with 18 seconds left.

That effort gave them the belief that they can play with the Cavs, and now in Game 2 I look for them to take this one right down to the wire, likely pulling off the upset.  So I'll take the 7.5 points and run with it here.

They even managed to hang with the Cavs while shooting just 37.9% from the floor in Game 1.  They are a much better shooting team than they displayed in that contest, and nerves may have been a factor.  Look for them to come out with a more relaxed mindset now that this series is officially underway.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -131

After losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Milwaukee Brewers, the Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a win in Game 3 this afternoon to avoid the sweep.  I believe they do just that and get a win here.

The Angels have a big edge on the mound behind Hector Santiago, who is 2-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in five starts this season.  Santiago is also 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts.

I'll gladly fade Zach Davies of the Brewers, who is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has given up 13 earned runs and 30 base runners over just 13 1/3 innings pitched this year.

The Angels are 10-1 in Santiago's last 11 starts.  Los Angeles is 6-0 in Santiago's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Brewers are 12-44 in their last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Angels Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Portland +10

The Portland Trail Blazers couldn't have played much worse against the Golden State Warriors in Game 1, yet they only lost by 12 points.  They played Game 1 only 36 hours after closing out the Clippers in their previous series, so they were at a big disadvantage.

But now that the Blazers have had some time to make adjustments behind one of the most underrated head coaches in the league in Terry Stotts, they will be much better prepared for Game 2 tonight.  Look for them to take the Curry-less Warriors down to the wire this time.

Portland is 17-8 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  The Blazers are 29-16 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Blazers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+102)

Any time Jake Arrieta takes the mound, it's a good idea to bet the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line.  Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA this season) is 16-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 18 regular-season starts since last losing on July 25 of last season.

The Cubs have won 18 straight games in which Arrieta has started.  They have won 19 of his last 21 starts by 2 runs or more.  Arrieta is 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh with his teams winning seven of those 10 starts by 2 runs or more.

Jon Niese isn't about to beat Arrieta today.  The left-hander has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Niese is 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Arrieta is 20-3 against the run line (+18.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons with the Cubs winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were absolutely embarrassed in Game 1 of this series, losing to the Spurs 92-124 as absolutely nothing went their way.  Look for them to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 2 to counter a couple things that caught them by surprise in Game 1, including Kawhi Leonard guarding Russell Westbrook.

After all, this was a closely-contested season series during the regular season, so that 32-point blowout was an aberration.  These teams split the season series 2-2 with the Thunder only losing by 4 and 8 in their two trips to San Antonio.

The Spurs simply shot lights out in Game 1, which isn't going to happen again.  They shot 60.7% from the field and 60% from 3-point range.  LaMarcus Aldridge was a ridiculous 18-of-23, while Kawhi Leonard was 10-of-13 and Danny Green was 6-of-7.  A repeat of that would be virtually impossible.

Plays against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Spurs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -115

I like the value we are getting with the Kansas City Royals at home today.  They are only -115 favorites because they have lost five of their last six games coming in, but that will have them even more motivated for a victory today, which works in our favor.

The Royals are 8-3 at home this season and now return home following that tough 6-game road trip.  Edinson Volquez has been virtually untouchable at home this season, going 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in three starts.  Volquez is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his last two starts against Washington, giving up just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Gio Gonzalez is way overvalued right now due to his 1.42 ERA in four starts this season.  But his competition couldn't have been any softer as he's faced the Phillies (twice), Braves and Twins.  Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 7.26 ERA and 1.841 WHIP in eight career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 8-0 in Volquez's last eight interleague starts, and 10-0 in his last 10 home starts with a price range of -100 to -150.  Kansas City is 17-4 in Volquez's last 21 home starts as well.  Gonzalez is 2-13 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last three seasons.  Take the Royals Monday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Indiana +6

The way the Pacers have played in these last three games with their season on the line, I simply trust them more in Game 7 than the Raptors.  I'll gladly back them as 6-point underdogs in a game that they will likely win outright tonight.

The Pacers should have won each of the last three games, and they won two of them in blowout fashion.  They won by 17 and 18 at home in Game 4 and Game 6, respectively.  But they blew a huge fourth quarter lead to lose 102-99 in Game 5.  They could have folded in Game 6 after that meltdown, but I love the resilience they showed.

The Pacers have clearly figured something out offensively.  They shot 47.1% in Game 4, 45.2% in Game 5 and 46.1% in Game 6.  The Raptors, meanwhile, shot 36.5% in Game 4, 40.2% in Game 5, and 36.7% in Game 6.  So the Pacers have clearly figured something out defensively as well.

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Raptors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Indians is 20-7 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to put an end to a 6-game losing streak.  Now they send ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound to do the dirty work, and I believe they win this game by multiple runs over the San Diego Padres today.

Kershaw has been dominant again this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander has owned the Padres, going 13-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  Kershaw has gone 5-0 in his last eight starts against the Padres while allowing seven earned runs, 25 hits, 13 walks while recording 75 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.

Drew Pomeranz has pitched well at home for San Diego, but he's just 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Pomeranz is also 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

Pomeranz is 0-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with his teams losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a real threat to the Spurs to win this series.  They might be the biggest sleepers in the West.  Everyone is talking about the Warriors and Spurs, which leaves a chip on the shoulder of the Thunder.

The Thunder actually went 2-2 against the Spurs this season with one of their two losses coming by 4 points.  In Game 1 of this series, the Thunder are ready to make a statement and let the Spurs know this is going to be a long series.  I like them getting 6.5 points as a result.

The Thunder are 23-9 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996.  The Spurs are 3-11 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Thunder are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 Saturday games.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -108

The Miami Marlins have been on an absolute tear on the road here of late.  They've won six straight road games and they aren't ready for this streak to end.  They'll still be on a mission to extend the streak to 7 today against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Wei-Yin Chen is the new ace of the staff for the Marlins.  He's done a good job thus far, going 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 4 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his lone road start.

Chase Anderson has not fared well with the Brewers this season.  He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 4 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two home starts.

Miami is 8-2 (+7.9 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.  The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.  The Brewers are 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games.  Milwaukee is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/A's OVER 7.5

I really like the OVER 7.5 in this game between the Houston Astros and Oakland A's tonight.  For starters, the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center at a rate of 16 miles per hour at the start of this game, eventually 'calming' down to 12 MPH by the conclusion.

Mike Fiers has really struggled in the early going for the Astros.  He is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in four starts this season, and sports a 9.00 ERA in his lone road start this year.  Fiers has given up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against Oakland.

Sean Manaea will be making his season debut for the A's tonight.  The left-hander will be trying to turn around a stretch where the A's have gone 1-5 in their last six games with their starters giving up 11 homers and a 6.61 ERA during that span.

The OVER is 5-1 in Fiers' last six starts.  The OVER is 11-3 in Astros last 14 road games.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in A's last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Oakland.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami +2

The Miami Heat are a veteran bunch who will not be intimidated by an elimination game on the road.  Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson have all been here before, and I look for them to rally the troops and force a Game 7 with a win tonight.

After shooting 18 of 34 from beyond the arc in the first two games of this series, the Heat have shot just 33.3 percent from distance after going 5-of-18 in Game 5.  That cold shooting is unlikely to continue, and these players know that they just need to stay the course and have a little better fortune late in games after losing the last two contest by a combined 6 points.

"I think we've got the looks we've wanted in the series," Miami guard Josh Richardson said. "We've just got to stay aggressive. We can't play any different because it hasn't fallen our way."

The Hornets haven't won a playoff series in 14 years, and this young group isn't ready to do it tonight.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Hawks/Celtics Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 198

This series continues to get lower-scoring as it goes on.  Three of the last four games between the Celtics and Hawks have seen less than 200 combined points, including 161 in Game 2 and 193 in Game 5.

These teams are so familiar with one another by now that points are so hard to come by.  Both teams are struggling to score the basketball as the Celtics have shot less than 38% in three of the five games, while the Hawks have shot less than 41% in three of the five.

If you don't count overtime in Game 4, then these teams have averaged well less than 198 combined points at the end of regulation in this series.  They have averaged 191 combined points at the end of regulation in the five points, so that alone shows that there's at least 7 points of value on the UNDER here.

Atlanta is 13-1 to the UNDER in its last 14 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Atlanta is 20-6 to the UNDER in its last 26 when leading in a playoff series.  Boston is 22-7 to the UNDER vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -121

The Chicago White Sox are way overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak coming into this series with the Baltimore Orioles.  They are coming off back-to-back sweeps of the Rangers and Blue Jays, and now they are primed for a letdown here tonight in Game 1 against Baltimore.

Chicago now has to send its worst starter to the mound in John Danks, and I'll gladly fade him all day.  Danks is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.6165 WHIP in three starts this season.  That's right, he's responsible for 3 of the White Sox 6 losses all season.

Tyler Wilson got the win in his season debut on April 23, limiting the Royals to 3 runs and 6 base runners over 5 innings of an 8-3 victory in Kansas City.  Wilson should have no trouble shutting down a White Sox lineup that is hitting just .238 and scoring 3.7 runs per game on the season.

Danks is 5-21 (-15.7 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in his career.  The White Sox are 5-16 in Danks' last 21 road starts, and 0-6 in his last six starts overall.  The Orioles are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.  Chicago is 3-8 in its last 11 trips to Baltimore.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat will roll in Game 5 at home to regain control of this series.  The home team has won all four meetings, including two blowout victories by the Heat with a 123-91 triumph in Game 1 and a 115-103 beat down in Game 2.

Dwyane Wade was in college the last time the Charlotte Hornets won a road playoff game, while Kemba Walker was still in grade school.  Charlotte is 2-19 in its last 21 trips to Miami, including playoffs.  The Heat have shot 54.7 percent from the floor and averaged 112 points in four meetings at AmericanAirlines Arena this season.

The Heat are 13-2 in their last 15 postseason home games with their only two losses coming to San Antonio in the 2014 NBA Finals.  Charlotte has dropped nine straight playoff games on the road with its last road victory coming in the opening round back in 2002.

Charlotte is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games following two consecutive wins against division rivals.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rangers OVER 9

Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball square off tonight when the New York Yankees take on the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of this series.  These teams combined for 11 runs last night, and I look for them to even top that total tonight as this game goes well OVER the 9-run total.

C.C. Sabathia is washed up and simply cannot recover.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.825 WHIP through three starts this season, twice not even making it through five innings.  Sabathia has posted a 5.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 22 career starts against Texas.  He faced the Rangers twice last season, giving up 11 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Martin Perez isn't much better, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in four starts this season.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the White Sox.  In his only career start against the Yankees last season, Perez gave up 8 earned runs in 1 inning of a 5-21 loss.

The OVER is 8-0 in Sabathia's last eight starts vs. Texas, including 4-0 in his last four road starts.  The OVER is 8-2 in Rangers last 10 road games.  The OVER is 7-3 in Sabathia's last 10 road starts.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -119

The Chicago White Sox have been one of the best teams in baseball through the first three weeks of the season.  They currently sit at 14-6 after winning six of their last seven games overall, including yesterday's come-from-behind 7-5 win over the Blue Jays.

Look for the White Sox to continue rolling behind ace Chris Sale tonight.  The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.667 WHIP through four starts this season.  Sale is also 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, winning each of his last two against them.

R.A. Dickey is one of the worst starters in baseball.  The knuckleballer is 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.693 WHIP through four starts this season.  Dickey certainly hasn't enjoyed facing the White Sox, going 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Chicago is 11-2 (+8.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Toronto is 0-6 (-7.9 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they committed no errors this season.  Chicago is 8-0 (+8.9 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.  The White Sox are 5-0 in Sale's last five starts, while the Blue Jays are 1-4 in Dickey's last five starts.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5

The Toronto Raptors are ready to win their first playoff series in a long time.  They have the team to do it this year, and this all-important Game 5 at home will help them accomplish their goal.  Look for the Raptors to roll tonight.

They have been the better team in this series despite poor performances from their two best players in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.  Lowry is averaging 15.5 points on 32.2 percent shooting, while DeRozan is at 13.3 points and 29.6 percent in the series.  Just imagine what they'll be able to do once these two get going.

DeRozan ranked third in the league in free-throw attempts during the regular season, but he has only attempted 15 in the series compared to 36 for Paul George.  Head coach Paul Casey has made a point of pointing out the poor officiating, and now I look for the Raptors to get more calls, especially playing at home in Game 5.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -123

This is an excellent price to get the Boston Red Sox tonight.  They are up against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Atlanta Braves, who are 4-14 on the season.  The Braves have hit 3 homers all season and have gone two weeks without hitting a homer.  They are slugging .282 as a team.

Rick Porcello will be asked to go deep into this game with the bullpen thin right now, and that shouldn't be a problem.  Porcello is 3-0 with a 4.66 ERA and 0.931 WHIP through three starts this season with 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.

Julio Teheran is off to the worst start of his career for the Braves, going 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in four starts.  Teheran was beaten badly by the Red Sox in his lone start against them last season, giving up 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-9 loss.

Porcello is 15-4 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in his career.  The Red Sox are 104-45 in their last 149 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  Boston is 70-31 in its last 101 vs. NL East opponents.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Braves are 18-45 in their last 63 games overall.  Atlanta is 0-7 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 4-22 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Red Sox Monday.

 20* Heat/Hornets Game 4 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets ended a 12-game playoff losing streak with their 96-80 win over the Heat in Game 3.  Now that they have that huge monkey off their back, I look for them to relax a little and play another great game tonight as they are much looser than they have been in the playoffs for a long time.

We saw the same thing happen with the Raptors and Celtics.  The Raptors ended a 7-game playoff skid with a win in Game 2, and proceeded to play their best game of the series in Game 3 in a 101-85 road win.  The Celtics ended a 7-game playoff losing streak with a Game 3 victory over the Hawks, and then came back and won Game 4 in overtime as well.

Charlotte made a nice adjustment by giving 7-footer Frank Kaminsky more minutes and more touches on the block in Game 3.  Kaminsky had played less than 20 points in each of the first two games, but logged 34 minutes in Game 3 as he started alongside Al Jefferson.  That combination worked and I look for head coach Steve Clifford to go back to it.

Charlotte is one of the best home teams in the NBA with a 31-11 record at home, and it has won four of its last five home meetings with the Heat.  Miami has lost six of its last eight road games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hornets are 22-7 ATS in home games vs. teams with winning records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Hornets in Game 4 Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics really believe they can come back and win this series.  They gained a lot of confidence from their Game 3 win over the Hawks.  They led that game by double-digits for most of the first half, but saw their lead completely vanish before rallying to win it in the 4th quarter behind 42 points from Isaiah Thomas.

The good news is that Thomas is probable and not expected to get suspended from his hit on Dennis Schroeder.  He is the key to this team and clearly figured something out in Game 3 as the Celtics made the proper adjustments on how he should attack this defense.

The Celtics are 20-3 in their last 23 home games, a stretch which saw them sport the fourth-best home record in the NBA in the second half of the season.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today.

Atlanta is 16-34 ATS in its last 50 road playoffs games.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  It is winning by an average of 11.6 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -102

The Miami Marlins will be highly motivated to avoid the 3-game sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants today.  They have lost the first two games of this series the past two days, but I believe they'll get Game 3 to salvage it.

This is more of a fade of Matt Cain than anything.  The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has given up 9 earned runs and 4 homers over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins as well.

Cain is 16-31 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in April games in his career.  The Giants are 0-6 in their last six during game 3 of a series.  San Francisco is 1-10 in Cain's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins -122

Any time I get the chance to back Jose Fernandez as a small favorite I'm probably going to take advantage.  That's especially the case today considering he's up against the washed-up Jake Peavy of the San Francisco Giants.

Fernandez has been lights out to start his career, going 23-10 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in four seasons.  He comes in having allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts in 2016.

Peavy has scuffled to say the least this season.  He's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 28 hits through 14 innings of work.  The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games overall and are scuffling at the plate as well.

Peavy is 31-60 (-24.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a cold starting pitcher;  (7.50 ERA or worse) over his last 3 starts, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 80-29 (73.4%, +41 units) over the last five seasons.  The Marlins are 8-0 in Fernandez's last eight Saturday starts.  Miami is 10-1 in Fernandez's last 11 starts vs. NL West opponents.  Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

The loss to the Mavericks in Game 2 really woke up the Thunder.  They won't let it happen again, and I expect Game 4 to play out just as Game 1 and Game 3 did, with the end result being a double-digit blowout victory for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven meetings with Dallas.  It has won four of the last six meetings by 13 points or more.  It won by 38 points at home in Game 1 and by 29 points on the road in Game 3.  It took a 33.7% shooting effort as a team for the Thunder to let the Mavs hang around and steal one in Game 2.  That's not going to happen again.

Plays against home teams (DALLAS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 3 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets were quietly one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They went 30-11 on their home floor, and facing a must-win in Game 3 after falling behind 0-2, I'll back them to get a win and cover against the Miami Heat tonight.

There's no question that this was a one-sided series in Miami.  The Heat shot 57.6% while scoring 123 points in Game 1, and 57.9% while scoring 115 points in Game 2.  It's safe to say that they aren't going to continue this torrid shooting, especially since most of their offense comes from 1-on-1 stuff.

"You have to look at how they're scoring," he said. "They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwyane Wade's got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody."

Look for Clifford to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 3 that will turn this series around for the Hornets and have them avoid their 13th straight playoff loss.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Hornets in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

It's now or never for the Boston Celtics after falling behind 0-2 in this series to the Atlanta Hawks.  Look for them to come out with a big sense of urgency and to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3, which is their first home game of the series.

The Celtics have dug themselves early holes in each of the first two games.  They shot 23.1 percent and fell behind 17 at halftime before rallying to lose by 1 in Game 1.  They then turned in the lowest-scoring first quarter in playoff history and fell behind 7-24 after the first period in Game 2.

Behind the help of their home fans, look for the Celtics to come out attacking from the opening tip.  A better start is going to help give this team confidence as they try and end a 7-game playoff losing streak.  After all, they are 19-3 at home since January 13, which is the fourth-best home mark in that span.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 16-33 ATS in its last 49 road playoff games.  Boston is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games after scoring 75 points or less in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -123

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Justin Verlander as a small home favorite.  But that's the opportunity that's been presented to us today, and we'll take advantage.

Verlander has gotten off to a shaky start in 2016 after finishing very strong after the All-Star Break last year.  He's too good of a talent to be held down for long, and I look for him to have a big performance today to lead the Tigers to victory.

Josh Tomlin is getting way too much respect from odddsmakers as his makes just his second start this season.  Tomlin has posted a 4.62 ERA in 96 appearances over his seven years in the big leagues.  Tomlin is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in six career starts against Detroit as well.

The Tigers are 40-19 in Verlander's last 59 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 6-1 in Verlander's last seven starts after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Indians are 18-44 in their last 62 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Tigers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates -137

After losing the first two games of this series to the Padres, the Pirates are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.  I'll back them at a great price here to do just that with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound.

Cole is still in search of his first victory this season despite a respectable 4.22 ERA and 1.218 WHIP through two starts.  He should have no problem getting it against a team he has owned.  Indeed, Cole is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career starts against San Diego.

Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Cole is 17-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-1 in Coles last 10 starts vs. National League West opponents.  Pittsburgh is 36-16 in Cole's last 52 starts overall.  Take the Pirates Thursday.

20* Raptors/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1

A massive weight has been lifted from the Toronto Raptors' shoulders.  They put an end to a 7-game playoff losing streak with their 98-87 win over the Pacers in Game 2.  Now that they have that monkey off their back, look for it to free them up as they get back to playing the way they played during the regular season, which was the second-best team in the East.

I feel like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan felt that weight the most because they actually haven't played well in the first two games of this series.  Lowry has shot 7 for 26 while fell All-Star DeRozan has gone 10 for 37.  It's been the role players who have played great for the Raptors.  But I have a sneaky suspicion that both Lowry and DeRozan are going to go off now.

The Pacers simply do not have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas down low, either.  He had a franchise playoff-record 19 rebounds in Game 1, and he followed that up with a playoff career-high 23 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2.  He is really the X-factor in this series.

Toronto has the third-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17 away from home.  The Raptors are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 meetings with the Pacers, including an impressive 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine trips to Indiana.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit +10.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value once again as double-digit underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I was on them in Game 1 with success, and I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons proved that their 3-1 season series win over the Cavaliers was no fluke by hanging with them for four quarters in Game 1 in a 101-106 loss as 11-point dogs.  They actually led that game 58-53 at halftime and shot 50.7% for the game.

Detroit simply matches up well with Cleveland.  The Cavs have no answer for Andre Drummond, and the Pistons have the wings in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James and keep him in check.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 150-95 (61.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 26-54-1 ATS in their last 81 vs. NBA Central opponents.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 199

Game 1 between Charlotte and Miami went well over the posted total of 198.5 in a 123-91 victory for the Heat.  They simply could not miss from the floor as they shot 57.6%, including 50% from 3-point range.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again in Game 2.

Charlotte will make the proper adjustments defensively to hold the Heat closer to the 100-point mark, and likely below it.  After all, these were two of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  The Heat ranked 7th in defensive efficiency while the Hornets were 9th.  The Heat also ranked just 25th in pace during the regular season.

Having two days off in between games will also make those defensive adjustments stick more.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Hornets last 24 games playing on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 games playing on 2 days rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Cards MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis -109

After losing the first two games of this series to the rival Chicago Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the 3-0 sweep.  I believe they'll get it due to the edge they have on the mound.

Carlos Martinez had a tremendous season last year and he's picked up where he left off, going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.077 WHIP through two starts this season.  Martinez enjoyed great success against the Cubs last season, going 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his final three starts against them.

Kyle Hendricks is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here due to his solid 1-1 start with a 2.84 ERA this season.  But Hendricks has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-1 with a 4.28 ERA in five career starts against them.  That includes a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts against St. Louis.
 
The Cardinals are 24-7 in Martinez's last 31 starts overall.  St. Louis is 85-38 in its last 123 home games.  The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Martinez is 15-2 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last three seasons.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -134

I'm willing to lay the juice on the Pirates today due to the massive edge they have on the mound and at the plate against the San Diego Padres today.  This is a Padres team that is 4-9 on the season, including 1-5 at home where they're hitting .185 and scoring 1.7 runs per game.  The Pirates are hitting .295 and scoring 4.4 runs per game this year.

Francisco Liriano has revived his career in Pittsburgh.  He is off to another great start this year, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA through two starts.  Liriano sports a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego as well.

Colin Rea wouldn't start for most teams in the big leagues, but the Padres are using him in their rotation.  Rea is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.646 WHIP through two starts this season.

Pittsburgh is 32-12 (+16.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 27-6 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh is 47-17 (+25.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Pirates Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central No-Brainer on St. Louis -118

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 of this series against the Chicago Cubs.  They lost 5-0 to the Cubs and former starter John Lackey last night, so look for them to rebound here with a victory in Game 2.

The Cardinals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Jamie Garcia, who is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.667 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 15 innings over two starts this season.  Garcia is 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in six career starts against Chicago as well.

Jason Hammel is off to a good start for Chicago, but he's overvalued as a result.  Hammel has not enjoyed facing the Cardinals, going 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

St. Louis is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -116

Off three straight losses, the Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Angels.  They were shut out 7-0 in Game 1 of this series, and they'll come back with a beat down of their own tonight.

It starts with Mat Latos, who is already proving to be an excellent addition to the rotation.  Latos is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.500 WHIP through two starts this season.  He is also 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels, both of which his team won the game.

It hasn't been a great start for Matt Shoemaker, who is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP through two starts for the Angels this season. Shoemaker certainly does not enjoy facing the White Sox, going 0-1 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He's given up four homers in 10 2/3 innings in this two starts.

Chicago is 13-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Boston +6.5

After coming back from 17 points down at halftime against the Atlanta Hawks to lose 101-102 in Game 1, the Boston Celtics clearly figured something out in the second half offensively.  They scored 67 points after intermission, and they'll use what they learned to try and pull the upset in Game 2.

''We're going to have to just continue to throw different bodies at (Teague) and make it as difficult as possible," Stevens said after Sunday's practice. "We're playing small anyways, so you might have to go even deeper into that. We'll look at it and figure that out over the next 48 hours.''

Stevens is concerned about stopping Jeff Teague, who had 23 points and 12 assists in the opener.  And without Avery Bradley, that job will be more difficult, but I believe they'll be up to the task.  They went 3-3 without Bradley this season, and one of the wins was a 106-93 victory over Atlanta on November 13.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 34-21 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Houston +13.5

I like the mindset of the Houston Rockets coming into Game 2 of this series with the Golden State Warriors.  They clearly weren't happy with the way they played in Game 1, especially in the first half as they dug themselves a hole that they simply could not climb out of.

"Move our bodies a little bit more," James Harden said. "Everything that happened [Saturday] was because of us. Obviously they're a good team, but we can improve so much more and that's what we we're excited about and we're definitely excited about [Monday's] game."

Houston made 297 passes in the loss, leading to 16 assists and four secondary assists. Golden State made 330 passes, leading to 26 assists and 10 secondary assists.

"You always got to talk about your habits," he said. "All the things you want to do, if you don't talk about them then you won't do them. So you got to continue to talk about them. You got to continue to preach it, whatever your system is, on either side of the ball you got to continue to preach it. You're going to have moments you don't do it, for whatever reason, but you continue to preach it and from there you hope that will do it."

I also like the fact that Stephen Curry suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 and is questionable to play in Game 2.  No question the Warriors are seriously considering resting him, which would be a huge help for the Rockets.  Even if he's limited it's going to help the Rockets either way.

Houston is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons, 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years, and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 games after committing 23 or more turnovers.  Plays on road underdogs (HOUSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 73-41 (64%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -135

The Minnesota Twins have rebounded nicely following their 0-9 start to the season.  They are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels and will come into this Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers with a ton of confidence now.

The Twins will also be sending ace Phil Hughes to the mound.  He's 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.054 WHIP through two starts this season while striking out 11 batters in 12 1/3 innings.  Hughes went 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA for the Twins in 2014 and 11-9 with a 4.40 ERA for the Twins in 2015.

The Brewers are 14-40 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Milwaukee is 11-41 in its last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Twins are 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the Twins Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5

The Miami Heat are a team built for the playoffs with Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson being two of the best 1-on-1 players in the game.  They can break down a defense when all else fails, and that is an advantage that they'll have over the more team-oriented Charlotte Hornets this entire series, including in Game 1.  Hassan Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA, and Goran Dragic has really upped his game down the stretch at the point guard position.

I really like the Heat here as only 4.5-point favorites, making them the smallest home favorites of any team in Game 1 of the eight opening series.  That fact alone makes me believe there's some value, especially considering the Heat are 28-13 at home this season, while the Hornets are 18-23 on the road.

Miami is 22-4 SU at home against Charlotte in the last 26 meetings.  It is outscoring the Hornets by roughly 10 points per game during this stretch as well.  The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 Sunday games.  Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +11

The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply getting too much respect as the No. 1 seed in the East.  That comes with having Lebron James on your team, but they have no business being 11-point favorites over the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Detroit actually won the season series with Cleveland 3-1, outscoring the Cavaliers by 1.75 points per game on average, and winning both road meetings outright.  They match up very favorably with the Cavaliers.  Cleveland's only real answer to All-Star center Andre Drummond's size and physical dominance is benched big man Timofey Mozgov, who has been horrible all season.

The Pistons have several versatile forwards in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James.  Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pople is a nightmare matchup for Kyrie Irving as well.  And Reggie Jackson is quickly becoming a star in Detroit and one of the most underrated points guards in the league.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Cavaliers are 26-53-1 ATS in their last 80 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY Pittsburgh Pirates -137

Juan Nicasio is just the latest starter who is going to benefit from being on the Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation.  They turn projects into gold on the regular, and he's going to prove to be a huge success just like A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez before him.

I was on the Pirates yesterday and won thinking no way they lose five straight.  They won, and now I'm thinking they're still motivated after that rough stretch of four straight losses.  So we're really getting them at a discount as only -137 favorites.

Pittsburgh is 20-4 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Pirates are 50-18 in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Game 1 Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +5.5

I expect the Boston Celtics to give the Atlanta Hawks a run for their money in this series.  It starts with Game 1 as they are 5.5-point underdogs here in a game I believe they are likely to win outright.

After winning the first meeting this season by 13 points at home, the Celtics have lost their last three meetings with the Hawks.  That places them in triple-revenge mode here, and I believe the Hawks will actually relax knowing that they have beaten the Celtics three straight times.

Boston is 54-36 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -150

Simply put, the Pittsburgh Pirates are not losing again tonight.  They have lost four straight coming into this one, but this streak stops here.  That's why I'll gladly lay this kind of juice for the Pirates at home against the Brewers Saturday.

Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann has been beaten up this season.  He is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 14 base runners in 7 innings of work.

Jon Niese has been much better, going 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.091 WHIP through two starts in 2016.  Niese has allowed just 6 earned runs over 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Brewers for a sub-3.00 ERA.

The Brewers are 0-8 in Jungmann's last 8 road starts.  The Pirates are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 47-23 in its last 70 home games.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +13

I believe the Golden State Warriors are in for a bit of a hangover in Game 1 of this series with the Houston Rockets.  They just set the NBA record for wins in a season with 73 by winning their final four games, and that grueling stretch to finish will take a little out of them in Game 1.  It will be enough for the Rockets to stay within this 13-point spread.

Don't look now, but the Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They were in must-win games down the stretch, and they dominated by going 3-0 in their final three games with wins over the Lakers (by 20), Timberwolves (by 24) and Kings (by 35).  They won their last three games by an average of 26.3 points per game.

The Rockets actually played the Warriors reasonably tough during the regular season.  They lost all four games, but three of the four losses came by 14 points or less.  I simply believe given this tough situation for the Warriors and how well the Rockets are playing right now that 13 points is too much.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 149-93 (61.6%) ATS since 1996.  Houston is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 8.5

I really like this OVER between two of the best offensive teams in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The total has only been set at 8.5 when it should be closer to 10 tonight in my opinion.

In fact, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have combined for at least 12 runs in seven of their last 11 meetings.  They combined for 12 and 15 runs in two of their three meetings already this season.  One of those was a matchup between Rick Porcello and R.A. Dickey, who will square off again tonight.

Dickey is 5-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 17 career starts against Boston.  He allowed seven runs, six earned in 5 innings of that 4-8 loss to the Red Sox.  Porcello is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 12 career starts against Toronto.  He allowed four runs in 6 innings in that game.

The OVER is 5-0-2 in Dickey's last seven starts overall.  The OVER is 8-2-3 in Dickey's last 13 starts when working on five days of rest.  The OVER is 9-1 in Red Sox last 10 games following an off day.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Boston.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -128

The Pittsburgh Pirates are highly motivated for a victory tonight when they start a 3-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers at home.  They have lost three straight and five of six coming in to drop to 5-5 on the season following their 4-0 start.

Jeff Locke had a sparkling 2016 debut as he gave up just one earned run in 6 innings against Cincinnati.  Locke has certainly enjoyed facing the Brewers as he is 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.  His counterpart, Jimmy Nelson, has allowed at least 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 30-7 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Pirates are 50-17 in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 18-6 in Locke's last 24 home starts.  Take the Pirates Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -140

The Washington Nationals are off to a blistering 7-1 start this season under new manager Dusty Baker.  They have done so behind dominant pitching as they are allowing just 2.4 runs per game on the season.

That dominance should continue tonight against one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies, who are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.9 runs per game this season.

Joe Ross was very good as a rookie last year, going 5-5 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 16 appearances.  Ross is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 2016 after allowing just one earned run in 7 innings of a 4-2 victory over Miami.

Jeremy Hellickson will get the ball for the Phillies.  He has been awful over the past few seasons, and he went 0-1 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.644 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals last season.  Those were his only two career outings against them.

Hellickson is 10-20 (-16.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 in his career.  The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 4-1 in Ross' last five starts.  The Phillies are 12-27 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Nationals Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -150

I believe we are getting the Toronto Blue Jays at a generous price at home today.  They are off to a slow start at 4-5, but have a chance to get back to .500 today.  I like their chances with Marcus Stroman on the mound.

Stroman has simply owned the New York Yankees, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He pitched 7 shutout innings of a 4-0 victory in his last start against the Yankees, which also came at home.

Toronto is 30-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less two straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The Blue Jays are 38-16 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Toronto is 47-23 in its last 70 home games.  The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Stroman's last home 12 starts, and 8-2 in his starts overall.  Bet the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -150

The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded in a big way following their tough 0-3 start to the season.  The Cardinals have gone 4-0 since while outscoring the opposition 41-14 in the process.

Mike Leake wants to make up for his shaky debut in a Cardinals uniform in Pittsburgh.  Expect him to be much sharper in front of his home fans here in St. Louis as they welcome him with open arms.

St. Louis is 45-11 (+25.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-2 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Bulls OVER 208

Defense will not be a priority tonight when two teams who eliminated from playoff contention in the 76ers and Bulls meet up in Chicago.  Look for a high-scoring affair from these teams today as a result.

The Bulls are set up right now to play in high-scoring games due to missing Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol.  Fred Hoiberg has had to go with smaller lineups, but also lineups that are more optimal offensively.  It has worked as the Bulls have won back-to-back games over Cleveland and New Orleans while averaging 113.0 points per game and giving up 109.0 points per game.

The 76ers have actually played great offensively here of late.  They have scored 102 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they are still a mess defensively, giving up 100 or more in 10 of their last 11 contests.  They have given up 122, 109 and 109 in their last three, respectively.

These teams have combined for 226 and 211 points in their last two meetings this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams as well.

Chicago is 14-3 OVER against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Chicago is 9-1 OVER vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season over the last two years.  The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+104)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win this game by multiple runs tonight against the hapless Atlanta Braves.  The Braves are 0-7 this season while losing five of those seven games by two-plus runs.

Stephen Strasburg gave up one earned run in 6 innings of a 3-1 victory over Atlanta in his first start this season.  He is now 4-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last four starts against Atlanta, giving up just one earned run in 24 innings.

Matt Wisler has not enjoyed the same kind of success against the Nationals.  He is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.

Atlanta is 11-40 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 2.6 runs/game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a 0.5-game behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 5 seed in the West.  They want to get that seed, and they are now 7.5-point dogs to the Clippers Tuesday in a game they need to have.  I'll take the points, especially with the Clippers locked into the No. 4 seed.

The Grizzlies are obviously still trying to finish out the season on the right note as they just lost to the Warriors by 1 as 13-point dogs.  They have had two days off since that loss, so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Clippers tonight.

Memphis is 23-13 ATS off one or more consecutive losses this season.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -129

The Seattle Mariners are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four in a row and want to get back in the win column tonight against the Texas Rangers.   I'll back the motivated Mariners at a great price Tuesday.

Wade Miley is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.  Derek Holland is 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 17 career starts against Seattle.  But Holland is 0-2 in his last two starts against Texas while giving up 12 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Seattle is 16-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 2-7 in Holland's last 9 road starts.  The Mariners are 12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games.  Take the Mariners Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -158

The Seattle Mariners are highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Oakland A's at home in three games last series.  They lost two of those three games by exactly one run.  Look for them to get back on track tonight against the Texas Rangers.

Hisashi Iwakuma is one of my favorite starters to back in the big leagues.  He has gone 47-25 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his five years in the big leagues.  Iwakuma is 8-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 14 career starts against Texas.

Colby Lewis is one of my favorite starters to fade in the big leagues.  He posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.521 WHIP over 29 starts in 2014, and then came back with a 4.66 ERA over 33 starts in 2015.  Lewis has given up at least three earned runs and a total of 10 homers over his last seven starts against Seattle.

Seattle is 16-5 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span over the last two seasons.  Iwakuma is 16-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses in his career.  The Rangers are 5-21 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Mariners are 12-5 in Iwakuma's last 17 starts.  Seattle is 6-0 in Iwakuma's last six starts vs. Texas.  The Rangers are 1-4 in Lewis' last five starts vs. Seattle.  Take the Mariners Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -5.5

The Utah Jazz are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.  They are one game ahead of the Houston Rockets for the No. 8 seed, and one game behind the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 7 seed.  In their home finale, with what's at stake, look for the Jazz to take care of business in a big way tonight.

The Mavericks are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without Jose Barea again tonight, just as they were last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after falling 91-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days as well.  The Mavs are one of the oldest teams in the league and aren't equipped to handle these situations well.

Yes, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but this will only be their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are coming off a 100-84 blowout win at Denver yesterday that required little effort.  They will be the fresher team, and their much younger legs are more suited to handle this situation.

The Jazz are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for right now.  They are currently one game ahead of both the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat for the No. 3 seed in the East.  They can grab a stranglehold on not only the No. 3 seed, but also their second straight Southeast Division title with a win tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers look disinterested here down the stretch and just ready for the playoffs.  They have lost back-to-back games with a 109-123 road loss to Indiana, and a 102-105 road loss to Chicago in a game the Lebron James actually played in.  There's a good chance they rest James tonight like they did against Indiana, though.

Few teams are playing as well as the Hawks right now.  They are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall and are coming off two huge wins over both Toronto and Boston by a combined 19 points, two of the top contenders in the East.  Now they want revenge from a 108-110 overtime loss to Cleveland on April 1 just 10 days ago.

Plays on underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Cavaliers are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 Monday games.  Roll with the Hawks Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on Golden State +5.5

The Golden State Warriors want the 73-9 record that would give them the most wins in a single season in NBA history.  They only have to go 2-0 in their final two games to get it, so they are extremely motivated for that record right now.

I like their chances of upsetting the San Antonio Spurs on the road here.  Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Warriors as underdogs, but that is the opportunity we've been given today, and we'll take advantage.

Greg Popovich has said he won't rest his starters against the Warriors even though the Spurs are locked in to the No. 2 seed, but I wouldn't be surprised if he limits their minutes in this one with the playoffs just around the corner.  He has also stated that the 41-0 home record the Spurs are in search of is meaningless.

The Warriors are 23-12 ATS when playing on 0 days' rest over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -117

I like getting the San Francisco Giants as small home favorites over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of this series Sunday.  The Giants lost yesterday and will be motivated to win the series 3-1.

Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is off to a good start this season, allowing just one run and six base runners in 7 innings of a 2-1 victory over Milwaukee in his Giants' debut.

Cueto has certainly enjoyed facing the Dodgers throughout his career.  He has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Cueto has only allowed one earned run and nine base runners over 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.

Scott Kazmir is 0-9 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 26-9 against the money line in all home games over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* T'Wolves/Blazers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to battle here down the stretch.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, and I look for them to give the Portland Trail Blazers a run for their money here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Blazers.  They are 0-3 against Portland this season, but a closer look shows that all three games were decided by 6 points or less.  They have been decided by 3, 6 and 5 points, and this 8.5-point spread certainly has a great chance of coming into play here.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Timberwolves are 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Phoenix Suns -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have made backers a nice chunk of change here down the stretch.  They are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.  That showed last time out as the Suns won 124-115 in Houston as 12-point road dogs to really crush the Rockets' playoff hopes.

New Orleans is the most depleted team in the league.  Its list of injuries is almost laughable at this point.  But give the Pelicans credit for continuing to fight.  They have actually gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, but that simply has them overvalued coming into this game against the Suns.

However, that long list of injuries will take its toll tonight.  The Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  The Pelicans simply aren't equipped to handle it right now with their short bench.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any time I can get a Blue Jays total at 9 or lower, I'm going to look for the OVER.  That's the case today, especially with the Red Sox and Blue Jays both throwing back-end starters.  This is going to be a slug fest similar to the one we saw last night with Boston winning 8-7 over Toronto.

Toronto has continue its solid hitting in scoring 5 or more runs in three of its five games this season.  Keep in mind that its first four games were played in pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay against a dominant Rays rotation.  The Blue Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday in their home opener.

The Red Sox believe they have a lineup that rivals that of Toronto, and that has clearly been on display this season as they have put up at least 6 runs in all three games while averaging 7.3 runs per game in the early going.

Rick Porcello is one of the most overpaid pitchers in baseball.  He went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 28 starts in his first season in Boston last year.  Toronto has owned Porcello, who is 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays.

R.A. Dickey is now 41 years old and on his last leg.  The knuckleballer gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings against the Rays in his season debut, and that's an awful Rays' lineup.  His job gets much tougher against the Red Sox.  He is 5-6 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 28-11-1 in Red Sox last 40 vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Red Sox last six after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-0-2 in Blue Jays last nine during Game 2 of a series.  The OVER is 4-0-2 in Dickey's last six starts overall.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays last six Saturday games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah Jazz -12

The Utah Jazz are 1.5 games up on the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They look to  take another step forward toward reaching their goal of making the postseason with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The Jazz have been playing very well of late, going 10-4 in their last 14 games overall with each of  their last three victories coming by 13 points or more.  They have won five of their last seven at home with their only losses coming to Golden State (OT) and San Antonio (by 2).

The Clippers are going to make the Jazz' job much easier tonight.  That's because they are resting all their starters, including Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Wesley Johnson.  Plus, Jeff Green and Austin Rivers are questionable.  I see no way they can compete with the Jazz tonight considering what Utah has to play for.

The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Utah.  Roll with the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers will clinch a playoff spot with a win today over the Toronto Raptors.  The motivation from missing the playoffs by one game last year is real with this team, and they are not about to waste this opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are already locked into the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have nothing to play for, and after losing in Atlanta last night, they will be resting their starters today.  That will make the goal of clinching a playoff spot a lot easier for the Pacers tonight.

"I think we're playing well at the right time," said George, who is 8 of 19 from 3-point range in his last three games. "It just has to continue. We all feel great about this win and the streak we're on, winning in our past three games. It's about capitalizing on this moment now."  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

It's safe to say the Detroit Pistons are highly motivated right now.  A win Friday and they would clinch their first playoff berth in seven years.  Look for the Pistons to roll the Washington Wizards at home.

Washington is pretty much eliminated from postseason contention.  It would have to win out to make the playoffs, and then get Detroit to lose its last three while moving past nine-place Chicago to return to the postseason.  Plus, John Wall is hurt right now and may not play.

The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Pistons are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Pistons Friday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -135

Simply put, the Cleveland Indians have a massive advantage on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox.  I believe they make easy work of the White Sox today because of it.

Chicago has opened 3-1 thanks to dominant starting pitching.  While 4/5 of its rotation is solid, the other 1/5 is a huge weakness.  That would be John Danks, who has posted a 4.71, 4.74, 4.75, 5.70, and 4.33 ERA over the last five seasons, respectively.  Danks is also 5-14 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 26 career starts against Cleveland.

Danny Salazar has one of the most electric young arms in baseball.  He went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.130 WHIP with 195 K's in 185 innings over 30 starts last season.  Salazar is 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA in six career starts against Chicago.  In two starts against the White Sox last year, Salazar allowed just 2 earned runs while striking out 16 in 12 2/3 innings.

The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven Friday games.  Cleveland is 8-1 in Salazar's last nine Friday starts.  The Indians  are 14-4 in their last 18 during Game 1 of a series.  The White Sox are 18-37 in Danks' last 55 starts vs. American League Central.  Chicago is 8-25 in Danks' last 33 Friday starts.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last seven  starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Indians Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an overtime road win against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  Now they are unlikely to even show up tonight, and I fully expect them to get blown out of the building.

The Kings have shown up at home all season and will continue to do so tonight.  They clearly have not packed it in as they are actually playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Indeed, they are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Adding to the Kings' motivation is the fact that they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves after losing each of the first three meetings this season.  Having already beaten the Kings three times, I find it hard to believe the Timberwolves will be motivated for this game at all, especially after just beating the Warriors.

Minnesota is 4-18 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -109

The San Francisco Giants will be playing their home opener today against the hated rival Los Angeles Dodgers.  I look for them to get a win at an excellent price at just over even money.

This is clearly one team that Jake Peavy has gotten up for throughout his career.  Indeed, Peavy is 14-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Dodgers.  He allowed just one run and four base runners over 7  innings in his final start against Los Angeles in 2015.

Alex Wood is 3-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 8-0 in Peavy's last eight home starts.  San Francisco is 25-12 in its last 37 home games.  The Dodgers are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in San Francisco.  Take the Giants Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers want to get the No. 5 seed so they can avoid Oklahoma City in the first ground.  They have a great chance of doing it since they trail the Grizzlies by just 0.5 games.  Memphis is in free-fall mode right now and won't be able to hang on.

So the Blazers have a lot to play for, while the Thunder are already locked into the No. 3 seed.  This would be the perfect time for OKC head coach Billy Donovan to rest his starters.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days, so don't be surprised to see him do just that.

Either way, I like the Blazers here because they have won seven straight at Moda Center and 16 of 18 at home overall.  They have outscored the opposition by 13.7 points per game in their last six there, limiting opponents to 97.8 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting during that stretch.

The Blazers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Portland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -127

The Oakland A's want to avoid falling to 0-3 at the hands of the Chicago White Sox tonight.  They have opened the season with two straight one-run losses, but now with their ace on the mound in Game 3, I look for them to pick up their first victory of the season.

Sonny Gray had a bout with food poisoning that prevented him from starting the past two games.  But he's over it, and was actually upset that he was passed over the first two games as he believes the team was too cautious with him.

Gray is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 31 starts last year.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who went 9-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 23 starts last year as a rookie for Chicago.  Rodon gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings in his lone start against Oakland last year.

The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  Chicago is 4-10 in its last 14 games following a win.  Oakland is 4-0 in Gray's last four home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are 2.5 games ahead of the 9th place Chicago Bulls, and a win tonight would certainly help.  They are motivated because they missed the playoffs by one game last year and don't want it to happen again.

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game way overvalued due to having won four straight.  But with a 3.5-game lead on the Toronto Raptors with four games to play for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, this would be the perfect time for Tyronn Lue to rest his starters.

And rest them he likely will given the situation.  Indeed, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee yesterday.  It would be foolish for him to play his starters right now given their spot in the standings, and this awful rest situation.  That's why the Pacers are favored in this game.

Plays against road teams (CLEVELAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic have gotten healthy down the stretch and are playing great basketball because of it.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points on the road to Milwaukee.  Their four wins have come by 22, 34, 20 and 12 points.

Now the Magic come into this game on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days after an 89-107 loss in Miami yesterday.  This is just an awful spot for the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-9 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on 2 days' rest.  These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +102

The St. Louis Cardinals have opened the season with two straight losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates, including a one-run loss in extra innings yesterday.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 of this series, and I look for them to get in the win column for the first time in 2016.

There's no question the Cardinals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Mike Leake, who went 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 30 starts last year, but 5-6 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Leake is also an impressive 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 24 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Leake allowed only 3 earned runs in 21 innings over his final three starts against the Pirates last season.  He'll be opposed by Juan Nicasio, who is 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.965 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis.  Nicasio is 22-25 with a 4.88 ERA in his career in the big leagues.

St. Louis is 11-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line off a one run loss versus a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-3 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons.  Enough said.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15*  T'Wolves/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +15.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday night as they chase down the Bulls' record for wins in a season.  Now they are being asked to lay 15.5-points to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, which is simply too much.

The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, so they aren't handling their lofty expectations very well.  Adding to that tonight is the fact that the Warriors will likely be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Thursday and not give the Timberwolves the attention they deserve.

That has been the case in this series as the T'Wolves have actually played the Warriors very tough recently.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or less and by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Plus, the T'Wolves come in way undervalued due to going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, but they will get up for the Warriors tonight.

Minnesota is 16-4 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They just lost two weeks ago on March 21 to the Warriors 104-109 as 12.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Golden State is 2-14 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have no business being this heavily favored over the Denver Nuggets on the road Tuesday night.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they essentially have nothing to play for right now.

That mindset is clearly setting in for the Thunder right now, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to both the Pistons and Rockets on the road, and barely beat the short-handed Clippers 119-117 at home.  They simply cannot be trusted right now, and they've been overvalued on the road all season.  The Thunder are just 12-23 ATS in all road games.

The Nuggets are always more competitive at home with a 17-21 SU record.  I believe they are undervalued coming into this one due to having lost four of their last five.  They play the Thunder tough at home, going 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver.

Oklahoma City is 3-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Denver is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this year.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz are showing solid value as home underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs today.  They are fighting for their playoff lives right now as they are currently the No. 8 seed in the West, but just one game ahead of the 9th place Rockets.

The Jazz are playing nearly as well as anyone in the Western Conference right now.  They are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Warriors in overtime in a game they should have won.  I'm very confident backing them as dogs here with the way they're playing.

San Antonio backers are crazy given their situation.  They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for.  You know Greg Popovich is famous for resting his starters without telling anyone, and that could be the case here.  Plus, the Spurs could be looking ahead to their road game against Golden State on Thursday.

Utah is 27-7 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 meetings.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

Currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind both the Pistons and Pacers for the final two playoff spots, the Bulls are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  I like their chances of picking up a win today against the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Due to their massive injury list, the Grizzlies have been in free-fall mode.  They are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, and they have actually lost six straight coming in to this one.  They are limping into the playoffs with no signs of turning it around any time soon.

The Bulls beat the Grizzlies 98-85 at home in their first meeting this season.  They have also won each of their last two trips to Memphis outright as underdogs.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.

The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  They have recent huge road wins over both the Pacers and Rockets while winning two of their last three overall coming in. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.