Winning Sports Picks

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5

James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season.  The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.

Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions.  It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.

The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season.  QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense.  While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. 

The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line.  But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen.  The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).

Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year.  It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game.  With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.

Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State.  The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters.  But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game.  Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.

The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season.  Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much.  He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.

Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941.  It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game.  The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions.  A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.

Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Saturday.

25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -152

The Los Angeles Angels realize that this series against the Texas Rangers is their biggest of the entire 2015 season.  They trail the Rangers by 3.5 games for the final wild card spot in the American League, so it's now or never in this series for them.  I'll gladly back them in Game 1.

Garrett Richards is 12-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He has been at his best at home, going 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 13 starts.  Better yet, Richards is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in three career starts against Texas.  The Angels are 6-0 in Richards' last six starts vs. Rangers.

Martin Perez is arguably the worst starter in the Rangers' rotation.  He has gone 2-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in eight starts this year, unable to lock down a spot in the rotation because of his inconsistency.  Perez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in four road starts as well.

The Angels are 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last two seasons.  The Angels are 14-3 in Richards' last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Los Angeles is 37-15 in Richards' last 52 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74

Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.

The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.

The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.

I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.

Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.

One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win.  I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.

SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5

Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan.  The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor.  That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.

Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach.  He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.  The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.

Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too.  He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners.  Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.

He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year.  Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons.  It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.

To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons.  This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season.  This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.

Utah comes into the season way overvalued.  The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference.  But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference.  All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.

Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season.  It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential.  It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential.  Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.

The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter.  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines.  I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one.  Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year.  Utah's systems have not changed.

"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."

Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Steelers -1

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -145

The Pittsburgh Pirates have now lost three straight games.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight and look to avoid the sweep.  After all, this has been one of the most resilient teams in baseball.

In fact, Pittsburgh has not lost four in a row since May 13-16.  That's right, they've gone nearly four months without losing four straight games.  That streak will remain intact today as the Pirates take care of business behind their ace on the mound.

Francisco Liriano is having another brilliant season, going 9-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.165 WHIP over 25 starts.  The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  He has allowed just four earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.

The Pirates are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Liriano is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season.  The Brewers are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog.  Take the Pirates Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -141

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back losses.  This has been one of the most resilient teams in baseball, refusing to go on extended losing streak.  In fact, the last time they lost three in a row was all the way back on July 17-19.  They've only lost three in a row twice since mid-May.

Jeff Locke is far from a dominant starter, but he's good enough to get the job done.  His hast two road starts have been superb.  Locke allowed two runs in 7 innings of a 7-2 win at Miami, and one run in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 win at New York.  He'll be opposed by Zach Davies, who makes is season debut for the Brewers today.

Locke has gone 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.  Better yet, he has gone 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his last six starts against the Brewers.  He has allowed three earned runs or less in all six starts, including two runs or fewer in five of them.

Plays on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite of -150 or more, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record are 49-10 (83.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pirates are 11-0 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -147

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the most resilient teams in baseball.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss, which have been few and far between.  They had yesterday off following a loss to the Rockies last time out, and I look for them to bounce back with a win in Game 1 of this series with lowly Milwaukee.

It doesn't hurt that the Pirates send their ace to the mound tonight in Gerrit Cole, who is 15-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 26 starts.  Cole has been his best on the road, going 7-4 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 13 starts away from home.  The right-hander is also 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee.

Jimmy Nelson has pitched reasonably well in his first season as a full-time starter for the Brewers.  He has gone 10-10 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  But he has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nelson allowed five earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Indians.

Milwaukee is 0-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 this season.  The Pirates are 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 39-16 in Cole's last 55 starts.  The Brewers are 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -104

The Los Angeles Angels are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League after getting swept by the Indians last series.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 1 of this series with the AL-worst Oakland A's (57-74).

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball all season.  Santiago is 7-8 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.202 WHIP over 25 starts and one relief appearance this year.  But what really stands out to me is that he has never lost to the A's, going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Felix Doubront has gone 1-1 with a fortunate 3.70 ERA in spite of a 1.429 WHIP over six starts and three relief appearances this season.  He is nowhere near on Santiago's level, but he's getting treated like it with this line Monday.  I'll gladly back the Angels with a lot to play for here at nearly even money.

Oakland is 0-7 (-9.4 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last two seasons.  The A's are pretty tired right now after going to extra innings with the Diamondbacks yesterday.  The Angels are 46-21 in their last 67 games as a road favorite.  The A's are 15-37 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Angels Monday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -117

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight coming into this one.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers to avoid the sweep and get back in the win column as they try and chase a playoff spot.

The last time they won, Jake Arrieta was the starter in an 8-5 win over the Giants.  Arrieta has been their ace all season, and he's been nothing short of spectacular.  The right-hander is 16-6 with a 2.22 ERA in 26 starts, 10-1 with a 1.94 ERA in 14 road starts, and 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last three outings.

There's no question that Arrieta is the better starter in this one.  Alex Wood is 9-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 25 starts this season, and 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in eight home starts.  Wood gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his only career start against the Cubs last year.

Wood is 1-7 (-8.6 Units) against the money line after four or more consecutive team wins over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Arrieta is 9-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.  Take this combined 18-0 system backing Arrieta and the Cubs straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* Cardinals/Raiders NFLX ANNIHILATOR on Oakland PK

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees put an end to a 2-game skid with an emphatic 15-4 win over the Braves yesterday.  The Braves even had to pitch a positional player.  While the Yankees are playing for the AL East Title, the Braves have packed it in a long time ago.  They are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with nine of those losses coming by two runs or more.

Yankees rookie Luis Severino has lived up to the hype in limited action this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.087 WHIP over four starts with 24 strikeouts in 23 innings.  This guy is one of the top young prospects in the game and has carried over his success from the minors.

Matt Wisler has been a big disappointment for the Braves.  Wisler is 5-4 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts.

Atlanta is 0-11 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Vikings +1.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on Tennessee Titans +5.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +146

The Los Angeles Angels are showing some of their best value of the season tonight.  They are 1/2-game back in the wild card standings with a ton to play for.  The Indians are five games back and have little to play for at this point in the season.

Not only do the Angels have the better lineup in this one, I also believe they have the edge on the mound.  Andrew Heaney is an underrated starter because he's a rookie.  But he hasn't pitched like one, especially on the road.  Indeed, Heaney is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in four road starts this year, and 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 11 starts overall.

There's no question that Danny Salazar has figured it out this season at 11-7 with a 3.30 ERA in 23 starts fro the Indians.  But he has not fared well against the Angels, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts.  Salazar allowed 6 runs in a 12-3 loss in his only career home start against the Angels in 2014.

The Angels are 8-3 in Heaney's 11 starts this season.  Los Angeles is 7-2 in Heaney's last nine starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Angels are 5-1 in Heaney's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is only hitting .240 against lefties and scoring 3.3 runs per game this season.  Bet the Angels Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-115)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-49) are showing great value today even on the run line as favorites against the Miami Marlins (51-76).  The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by two runs or more.  That trend will continue tonight.

Gerrit Cole is one of the best starters in baseball.  He has gone 14-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Cole gave up two earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Marlins on May 27 in his only start against them in 2015.

Justin Nicolino has held his own in limited action this season for the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts.  But he's 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three home starts.  Nicolino won't get any run support here as the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

Miami is 11-20 against the run line (-14.2 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.  The Marlins are 4-16 against the run line (-14.7 Units) after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 11-1 in Cole's last 12 starts vs. NL East foes.  Bet the Pirates on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks +100

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday as they host the St. Louis Cardinals once again.  They have lost the first two games of this series, but I believe they have the edge on the mound in Game 3 and will stop the bleeding as a result.

Patrick Corbin has gone 3-3 with a 4.09 ERA in nine starts this season.  But he has been a great starter at home in his career, including this year.  Corbin is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.130 WHIP In four home starts with 23 strikeouts over 23 innings pitched and only two homers allowed.

John Lackey has been great at home this season for the Cardinals as well, but that's a non-factor here.  What matters is that Lackey is 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 12 road starts.  The Cardinals are 3-9 in Lackey's 12 road starts this season as well.

Lackey is 1-9 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 3-13 in Lackey's last 16 road starts overall.  Arizona is 8-1 in Corbin's last nine starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -113

The Los Angeles Angels were just swept by the hottest team in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series to fall out of the final wild card spot.  They are now 1.5 games behind the Rangers.  They had Monday off to regroup and refocus going into this series with the Detroit Tigers.

There has been plenty of speculation that the situation is not good in the Tigers' clubhouse right now.  They have lost four straight to fall 5.5 games back in the wild card race.  They played Monday in a 5-12 loss to the Reds to boot, which put an end to the Reds' 9-game losing streak.  So, the Angels will be the fresher team after having yesterday off while the Tigers did not.

Jered Weaver has a 4.34 ERA on the season in spite of a very solid 1.184 WHIP.  He has stepped up his game of late, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in his last three starts.  Weaver is also 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts against Detroit, allowing 10 earned runs in 33 innings.

Alfredo Simon sports a 4.52 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 23 starts this season in spite of his 11-7 record, which has been aided by great run support.  But Simon has never beaten the Angels, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in two career starts against them.

The Angels are 44-21 in their last 65 games as a road favorite.  Los Angeles is 69-27 in Weaver's last 96 starts as a favorite.  The Tigers are 3-14 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 14-3 against Detroit over the past three seasons.  Bet the Angels Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -116

We are getting the best team in baseball at a very generous price Monday.  The St. Louis Cardinals had lost two straight before salvaging the series with a 10-3 win over the Padres yesterday.  They will be motivated to get off to a much better start in this series against Arizona.

The Cardinals have the clear advantage on the mound in this one behind Lance Lynn, who is 9-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 23 starts this season.  Lynn has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in six career starts against them as well.

Robby Ray is 3-9 with a respectable 3.37 ERA in 15 starts for Arizona.  However, he has not been sharp at home, going 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in six home starts.  In fact, the Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Ray's six home starts this season.

The Cardinals are 11-1 in Lynn's last 12 Monday starts.  Rays is 0-7 (-7.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  Ray is 0-8 (-8.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Ray is 0-7 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.  These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* NFLX Sunday No-Brainer on St. Louis Rams +2.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -119

The New York Mets have scored 14 runs in each of the first two games of this series with Colorado.  I look for the Mets to stay red hot at the plate and to get into the Rockies' bullpen early and often in this one once again.

Logan Verrett is getting a chance to make his first start of the season after pitching tremendously out of the bullpen thus far.  Verrett has posted a 0.68 ERA and 0.602 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings, allowing just one run and eight base runners while striking out 12.

David Hale has been the worst starter for Colorado this season.  He is 3-4 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in nine starts this year, including 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in his last three.  Hale has posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well.

The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite.  New York is 51-16 in its last 67 games as a favorite.  The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games with a total set of 11 or higher.  The Rockies are 0-6 in Hale's last six starts.  Colorado is 2-10 in its last 12 games overall.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -121

The New York Mets have a lot to play for right now.  They are trying to win the NL East, and they are doing a good job of it at 65-56.  The Mets won 14-9 yesterday to really put a hurting on Colorado's bullpen.  The Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.

Jon Niese has been at his best on the road with a 2.84 ERA in 11 road starts.  Niese is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts as well.  He'll be opposed by Chris Rusin, who is 4-5 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.506 WHIP in 14 starts and four relief appearances in 2015.

The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite.  The Mets are 50-16 in their last 66 games as a favorite.  The Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Rockies are 0-6 in Rusin's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Mets Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday No-Brainer on Miami Dolphins PK

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons +2

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

25* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -122

The Detroit Tigers are rolling now that they have a healthy Miguel Cabrera back in the middle of their lineup.  They have won four of five with their only loss coming by a run.  They are also 3-0 in their last three games, which haven't even been close as they've outscored the opposition 29-16 in the process.

Now Justin Verlander has found it again.  He has pitched 13 innings against Houston and Boston in his last two starts without allowing a single earned run and striking out 14.  Verlander has a 0.00 ERA in those two starts.  The right-hander is also 9-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 16 career starts against Texas.

Colby Lewis is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Lewis is 13-5 in spite of a 4.49 ERA on the season.  He sports a 4.95 ERA in his last three starts as well.  But what really stands out to me is that Lewis is 3-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.

Plays against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 74-30 (71.2%, +43.6 units) over the last five seasons.

The Rangers are 2-10 in Lewis' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 67-32 in Verlander's last 99 starts as a home favorite. Detroit is 7-2 in Verlander's last nine starts vs. Texas.  The Rangers are 0-4 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

15* NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo Bills +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -106

The Detroit Tigers now have Miguel Cabrera back and are a completely different team with him.  They scored 25 runs with 40 hits at Wrigley Field in their two-game sweep of the Cubs the past two days.  I look for them to stay red hot at the plate against the Rangers tonight.

Alfredo Simon has been a very good starter for the Tigers at home this season.  SImon has gone 4-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 10 starts in Detroit with the Tigers going 7-3 in those contests.  This is a team that has some momentum now and needs to make a run if it wants to make the postseason.

The Rangers are being overvalued due to winning five of their last six.  Martin Perez simply isn't very good.  He's 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in six starts this season.  Perez is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA in his lone career start against Detroit.

Simon is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Tigers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Night Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -132

I have backed the Angels with success each of the past two nights as the oddsmakers have failed to give them the credit they deserve.  The Angels should be closer to a -200 favorite tonight, but instead we're getting them at -132, and we'll take advantage again.

Jered Weaver has a 4.60 ERA in spite of a 1.207 WHIP this season, so he has been unlucky to have a 4-9 record.  But Weaver has been at his best at home, going 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in seven starts.  What stands out most to me, though, is that Weaver is 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox have lost four of five and have little to play for at this point, unlike the Angels.  Jeff Samardzija is pitching like he doesn't care right now.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 12.91 ERA and 1.890 WHIP in his last three starts.  Samardzija is also 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles.

Weaver is 23-4 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season for his career.  The White Sox are 15-37 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-6 in their last six road games overall. 

The Angels are 37-18 in their last 55 home games.  Los Angeles is 46-16 in Weaver's last 62 home starts.  The Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 home meetings with the White Sox.  Los Angeles is 5-0 in Weaver's last five starts vs. Chicago.  Bet the Angels Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -163

I am willing to lay the big juice on the Angels today because I believe they are going to get on a roll now that they are back home from an awful 7-game road trip where they went 1-6.  I backed them with success last night in Game 1 of this series with Chicago, and I'll take them again in Game 2 tonight.

The Angels once again have a big edge on the mound behind Garrett Richards, who is 11-9 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Richards has been superb at home, going 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 11 starts in Los Angeles.  Richards is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in one career start against Chicago as well.

John Danks has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last few years as he just hasn't recovered from injury.  The left-hander is 6-9 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He has been awful on the road, going 2-6 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

The White Sox are 16-46 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 0-5 in their last five road games overall.  Chicago is 1-7 in Danks' last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Angels are 25-8 in their last 33 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Angels are 53-21 in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Los Angeles is 15-3 in Richards' last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Angels Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -137

The Los Angeles Angels are desperate for a victory.  They just finished off a 1-6 road stretch, but now they return home looking to get back on track.  They are still just 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West and 1/2 game out of the final wild card spot.

The Angels have a massive edge on the mound in this one.  Rookie Andrew Heaney has been spectacular in 2015, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in nine starts.  The left-hander is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five home starts, and the Angels are 5-0 in those five contests.

Carlos Rodon has not pitched well at all for the White Sox.  The left-hander is 5-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 16 starts and three relief appearances in 2015.  Rodon is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The White Sox are 16-45 in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Chicago is 0-4 in its last four road games.  The Angels are 27-9 in their last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 52-21 in its last 73 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Angels are 7-1 in Heaney's last eight starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Monday.

20* Angels/Royals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +120

The Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six and are now just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League.  It's safe to say that they need to kick it in gear here soon.

The Angels clearly have the edge on the mound today and shouldn't be underdogs.  Hector Santiago is 7-6 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 22 starts and one relief appearance in 2015.  Santiago owns the Royals, going 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Yordano Ventura is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  The right-hander is 7-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three.  The Royals have lost 10 of his 18 starts this year.

The Angels are 21-8 in their last 29 during game 4 of a series.  Los Angeles is 5-1 in its last six Sunday games.  The Angels are 6-2 in Santiago's last eight starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Royals are 2-6 in Ventura's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday No-Brainer on Houston Texans -2.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -117

I'm going to continue to ride the red-hot Chicago Cubs Saturday at a very generous price against the Chicago White Sox.  They have won eight straight to improve to 14-1 in their last 15 games overall to move within 1.5 games of Pittsburgh for the top wild-card spot.

Now the Cubs send their best starter to the mound in Jake Arrieta, who has gone 13-6 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 23 starts, including 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Arrieta sports a 1.23 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing two runs or fewer in nine of them.

Jose Quintana is having a fine season for the White Sox at 6-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 23 starts.  However, he is nowhere near on Arrieta's level and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here Saturday.  Arrieta gave up one run and two hits while tossing a complete game in a 3-1 win over the White Sox on July 12.

The Cubs are 7-0 in their last seven games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Chicago is 7-0 in Arrieta's last seven starts as a road favorite.  The Cubs are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five interleague home games.  The Cubs are 8-0 in their last eight games overall.  These five trends combine for a 33-0 system backing the Cubs.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* NFLX Friday ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Rams +1.5

 No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -107

The Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball, right alongside the Toronto Blue Jays.  We are getting them at an excellent price Friday considering they are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  They have won nine of those 13 games by 2 runs or more as well.

The Cubs have the edge on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 22 starts this year.  One of those starts came against the White Sox on July 10.  Hendricks pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only five base runners.

Jeff Samardzija is not having a very good season.  He is 8-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 23 starts.  Samardzija has been awful of late, going 1-2 with a 10.38 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 20 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch.

Hendricks is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.  Samardzija is 2-14 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -110

Following three straight losses, the Los Angeles Angels are now only 1.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for the final wild card spot in the American League.  It's safe to say that the Angels are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals Thursday.

I believe they'll get back in the win column due to their massive edge on the mound.  Garrett Richards is 11-9 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  He has returned from injury this season and has been his same dominant self.

Jeremy Guthrie is by far the weak link in Kansas City's rotation.  The right-hander is 8-7 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.584 WHIP in 21 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.944 WHIP in his last three.  Guthrie has given up 15 runs over 21 innings in his last three starts against the Angels.

The Angels are 24-9 in Richards' last 33 starts as a favorite.  Los Angeles is 7-1 in Richards' last eight starts during Game 1 of a series.  Los Angeles is 41-18 in its last 59 games as a favorite.  The Royals are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Miami Dolphins +1.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Angels -123

The Los Angeles Angels (59-53) have lost the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox, and now they're only two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League.  I look for them to bounce back behind a motivated effort in Game 3 tonight.

It also helps that the Angels have a massive edge on the mound.  Andrew Heaney has been brilliant this season, going 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in eight starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three starts away from home.

John Danks remains one of the worst starters in baseball as he's never been able to recover from injury and return to his former self.  The left-hander is 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.438 WHIP In 21 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in his last three.

The Angels are 43-20 in their last 63 games as a road favorite.  Los ANgeles is 7-0 in Heaney's last seven starts as a favorite.  The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 1-4 in Danks' last five starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Bet the Angels Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -129

We are getting the Chicago Cubs, who have everything to play for, at a great price at home Tuesday.  They have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to move 3.5 games ahead of the Giants for the final wild card spot.  They now take on the Milwaukee Brewers (48-65) and won't let up.

Dan Haren was a nice addition for the Cubs prior to the trade deadline.  He has gone 7-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 22 starts, including 4-3 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Haren is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.

Taylor Jungmann has pitched well for the Brewers in limited action this season, going 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 11 starts.  But with such a small sample size, he's clearly overvalued.  In his lone start against the Cubs on July 31, Jungmann allowed three runs and nine base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss.

The Brewers are 18-47 in their last 65 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  TheCubs are 9-0 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -118

The Baltimore Orioles are the first team out of the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are three games back of the Angels for that spot.  They know this is big series with Seattle, which has little to play for at eight games out of the wild card.

Baltimore has a big edge on the mound today and should be a bigger favorite as a result.  Wei-Yin Chen is 5-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.200 WHIP In 21 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA in eight road starts.  Chen is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle as well.

Vidal Nuno has only made one start this year on August 4, giving up three earned runs and two homers in 3 2/3 innings against Colorado.  Nuno is 0-1 with a 5.69 ERA in one career start against Baltimore.  He is 3-15 with a 3.99 ERA in his three-year career.

Nuno is 2-14 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  Baltimore is 6-0 in Chen's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 6-23 in their last 29 games following a win.  Bet the Orioles Monday.

15* Steelers/Vikings NFL Hall of Fame Game No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations. 

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays +130

The Toronto Blue Jays are showing excellent value as big road underdogs to the New York Yankees today.   Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear.  They have won seven straight and 10 of 11 to pull within 2.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East.  They are 10-0 when Tulowitzki starts.

The Blue Jays will cap off the series sweep Sunday behind Marco Estrada, who has been one of the most pleasant surprises on the entire team in 2015.  Estrada is 9-6 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 17 starts and six relief appearances.

Masahiro Tanaka is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  Tanaka is a big name, but he's 8-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 4.23 ERA in nine home starts.  He also sports a 4.58 ERA in his last three outing.  Tanaka gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a 1-6 loss to the Blue Jays in his only start against them in 2015.

The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Toronto is 9-3 in Estrada's last 12 starts, including 4-0 in his last four starts during Game 3 of a series.  The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Blue Jays Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Blue Jays -141

Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear.  They have won six straight and nine of 10 to pull within 3.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East.  They are 9-0 when Tulowitzki starts.  They took Game 1 in extra innings last night, and now I look for them to take Game 2 as well due to their edge on the mound.

Price is 10-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 22 starts this season, putting up the kind of numbers that would warrant the AL Cy Young award.  His first start with Toronto was a massive success as he held the Twins to one run and three hits while striking out 11 over 8 innings of a 5-1 victory on August 3.

Ivan Nova has put up solid numbers in limited action for the Yankees, going 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in seven starts.  However, Nova clearly does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays.  He has posted a 4.62 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in nine career starts against them, and he's never faced a Blue Jays' lineup as potent as this 2015 version.

The Blue Jays are 24-9 in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 6-0 in its last six games overall.  The Yankees are 0-5 in Nova's last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays +104

Since making the trades for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on an absolute tear.  They have won five straight and eight of nine to pull within 4.5 games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East.  Now they get to face those Yankees for a 3-game set starting Friday.

Toronto has the clear edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series behind R.A. Dickey.  While he's just 6-10 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 22 starts this season, Dickey has been untouchable of late.  He is 3-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.772 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts as well.

Plus, Dickey is 5-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 12 career starts against New York.  He has allowed just two earned runs and 13 base runners over 14 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees in 2015. 

He's up against Nathan Eovaldi, who is very fortunate to have an 11-2 record in spite of a 4.30 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 21 starts this year.  That 11-2 record clearly has him overvalued.  The Blue Jays are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -148

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six to fall two games back of the New York Mets in the NL East, including yesterday's 11-4 loss to the Diamondbacks where they had to pitch a position player in the end to preserve their bullpen.

With the motivation and the edge the Nationals have on the mound today, they should be much bigger favorites.  Joe Ross has been brilliant this season, going 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over six starts with 40 strikeouts in 39 innings.  He is arguably the Nationals' second-best starter behind Scherzer.

Jeremy Hellickson has been awful over the last several years.  Hellickson has gone 7-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 20 starts, including 2-4 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Hellickson gave up 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-9 loss to the Nationals on May 13 this year in his lone career start against them.

The Diamondbacks are 19-47 in their last 66 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Diamondbacks are 12-40 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Arizona is 1-4 in Hellickson's last five road starts.  The Nationals are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 4 of a series.  Washington is 37-17 in its last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -113

The Los Angeles Angels are extremely motivated for a victory right now.  They have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games overall to really put their wild card chances in jeopardy, let alone their chances of winning the AL West.

I'll back one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Hector Santiago to get the job done today at a great price.  Santiago is 7-5 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 20 starts, including 3-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 12 home starts.

Danny Salazar is having a fine season for the Indians as well, going 9-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 19 starts.  But Salazar is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.

The Indians are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Angels are 38-15 in their last 53 games as a favorite.  The Angels are 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the Angels Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -131

The Chicago Cubs are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates today.  They have won five straight coming in and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now.

The Cubs have the clear edge on the mound in this one.  Jake Arrieta is 11-6 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 21 starts, including 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Arrieta is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh.

J.A. Happ is 4-6 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 20 starts this season between Seattle and Pittsburgh.  Happ has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts.  The left-hander is 1-2 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.905 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

The Cubs are 6-0 in Arrieta's last 6 starts as a road favorite.  The Pirates are 5-11 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Arrieta is 7-0 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Nationals/Mets ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Washington +126

The Washington Nationals are going to be highly motivated for a win over the New York Mets after losing the first two games of this series.  They will want to avoid the sweep, especially since they are only one game ahead of the Mets now after losing two straight excruciating one-run games.

Getting starter Jordan Zimmerman at this kind of price is a gift from oddsmakers.  The right-hander has gone 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA in 21 starts this season.  Zimmerman owns the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 22 career starts against them.  His teams are 16-6 in those meetings.  He has allowed only 4 earned runs over 26 innings in his last four starts against them.

There's no question that Noah Syndergaard has a bright future.  He has gone 5-5 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 14 starts, but he's being overvalued here.  He allowed 10 base runners in only 5 innings of a 3-4 loss in his lone start against Washington on July 22.

The Nationals are 11-2 in Zimmermann's last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.  Washington is 8-1 in Zimmerman's last nine Sunday starts.  The Nationals are 70-32 in Zimmermann's last 102 starts overall.  Washington is 38-14 in its last 52 meetings in New York.  The Nationals are 13-3 in Zimmermann's last 16 starts vs. Mets.  Bet the Nationals Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118

I've backed the Chicago Cubs with success each of the past two days in a 5-2 victory Thursday and a 4-1 triumph Friday.  Another blowout victory can be expected Saturday as we are once again getting the Cubs at a tremendous price.

The Cubs have everything to play for right now as they are 55-47 and only one game back in the NL wild card race.  The Brewers, meanwhile, are 44-60 and 13 games back.  The Brewers are in a poor state of mind right now as they just traded three of their best players in Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez and Mike Fiers.  They are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.

Chicago has the clear edge on the mound.  Kyle Hendricks is 4-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  He'll be opposed by Matt Garza, who is 5-11 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 18 starts and one relief appearance.  Garza is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four career starts against Chicago.

Hendricks is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee.  Hendricks is 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -101

The Chicago Cubs are actually underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers when they shouldn't be tonight.  The Cubs are squarely in the wild-card race just two games back, while the Brewers are out of it 13 games back.  The Brewers are 2-7 in their last nine games overall and are trading away their players, which is a distraction.

Jason Hammel has resurrected his career in Chicago the past two seasons.  Hammel has gone 5-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  But what stands out to me is that Hammels has never lost to the Brewers, going 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

There's no denying that Taylor Jungmann is having a fine season for Milwaukee.  But he has made just nine starts this year, and the more tape teams get on him, the harder they're going to hit him sooner rather than later.  Jungmann's numbers are the reason the Brewers are favored here when they shouldn't be.

The Cubs are 7-1 in Hammel's last eight starts during game 2 of a series.  The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight games against a right-handed starter.  The Brewers are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -137

The Chicago Cubs sit 2.5 games behind the final wild card spot in the National League.  While they have everything to play for, the Milwaukee Brewers have recently seen a couple of their players traded, and that has them lacking motivation.  The Brewers are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.

Jake Arrieta is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The right-hander has gone 11-6 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.002 WHIP In 20 starts, 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts.  Arrieta sports a 3.22 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.

Jimmy Nelson is 8-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in 20 starts this season for Milwaukee.  Nelson clearly does not enjoy facing the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.  Chicago is 6-1 in Arrieta's last seven road starts.  The Cubs are 5-0 in Arrieta's last five starts as a road favorite.  The Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  The Brewers are 3-9 in Nelson's last 12 home starts.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

25* NL East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -105

The Washington Nationals have lost two straight and four of five.  They have faced Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Gerrit Cole and Jose Fernandez during this stretch, which or four of the best starters in baseball.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the lowly Marlins.

Doug Fister certainly isn't having his best season, but he's now undervalued as a result.  He now gets to face one of the worst lineups in baseball in Miami, which is still without Giancarlo Stanton.  Fister is 2-0 (3-0 money line) with a 1.14 ERA and 0.760 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins, having never lost to them.

Tom Koehler has overachieved this season for the Marlins and is overvalued as a result.  Koehler is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts against Washington.  In his last start against the Nationals on May 6, he allowed five earned runs and three homers in six innings of a 5-7 loss.

Fister is 13-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are 65-28 in their last 93 Wednesday games.  Washington is 20-8 in its last 28 vs. NL East foes.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Koehler's last six Wednesday starts.  Washington is 19-8 in Fister's last 27 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -118

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a win today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five to fall further behind in the AL wild-card race.  Look for them to get a win against the Tampa Bay Rays today with their ace on the mound.

At 9-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 20 starts this season, David Price is a legitimate AL Cy Young contender.  He has gone 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA in 10 road starts, and 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA in his last three starts.  Price faced his former team in the Rays once, allowing one unearned run and one hit in eight innings of a 1-0 loss on August 21 of last year.

Jake Odorizzi is having a fine season overall, going 5-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 15 starts for the Rays, but he's not on Price's level.  Also, Odorizzi has struggled of late, giving up 8 earned runs and 18 base runners over 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts.

The Rays are 0-7 in Odorizzi's last seven starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Tampa Bay is 1-9 in its last 10 vs. AL Central foes overall.  The Rays are 8-17 in their last 25 games overall.  The Tigers are 15-5 in Price's last 20 starts, including 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. 

Price is 14-1 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  Price is 11-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -107

The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory today when they host the AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.  They have lost four in a row coming in after getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend.

Cody Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this year.  He has gone 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in five starts, including 1-0 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in two home starts.  Anderson will be facing the Royals for the first time.

Edinson Volquez is having a fine season in Kansas City, going 9-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 20 starts, and 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in nine road starts.  However, Volquez is 1-2 with an 11.47 ERA and 2.624 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.

Cleveland is 27-12 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 2-11 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.  The Indians are 4-1 in Anderson's last five starts.  Bet the Indians Monday.

20* Tigers/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston -140

Both the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox have really been struggling of late.  The Red Sox will be motivated for a victory tonight on National TV, and I expect them to get it due to the advantage they have on the mound in this one.

Eduardo Rodriquez has at least been serviceable for the Red Sox, going 5-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 10 starts with 46 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings.  This will be his first career start against the Tigers, who remain without Miguel Cabrera.

Shane Greene has been nothing short of awful this year.  He has gone 4-7 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in 15 starts, 2-4 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in seven road starts, and 0-2 with a 12.40 ERA and 2.107 WHIP in his last three starts.

Greene is also 0-1 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.316 WHIP in two career starts against Boston, allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Boston is 10-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more this season.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -126

The Boston Red Sox finally put an end to their eight-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of this series over the Detroit Tigers. They had a brutal 7-game road trip against the Angels and Astros, but they are back home now.  Look for them to put together a winning streak by taking Game 2 as well against the Miguel Cabrera-less Tigers.

Boston has the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Steven Wright has gone 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in five starts and seven relief appearances this year.  Wright is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in two home starts.  He has never faced the Tigers, which gives him a competitive advantage.

Alfredo Simon is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 18 starts for Detroit, and 1-1 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.268 WHIP in his last three.  Simon has pitched well at home, but he's been awful on the road, going 4-4 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in nine starts away from home.  Simon is also 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP in two career starts against Boston.

The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Detroit is 1-5 in Simon's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in Boston.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -134

Getting an ace of Felix Hernandez's caliber at home at this kind of price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  Hernandez is having another AL Cy Young-caliber season, going 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three.  He has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starters against the Blue Jays.

Drew Hutchison is one of the most overrated starters in baseball due to his 9-2 record this season.  He sports a 5.19 ERA and 1.471 WHIP with this fortunate 9-2 record, which is the result of great run support.  Hutchison has been awful on the road, going 2-1 in spite of an 8.81 ERA and 1.979 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

Toronto is 0-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season.  The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Mariners Friday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -133

The Cleveland Indians (45-48) are looking to make a push in the second half.  They have won three of their last four games and will be a dangerous team going forward.  The Chicago White Sox (42-50) are going in the opposite direction, losers of four straight and six of their last seven.

I believe the Indians have the edge on the mound tonight.  Trevor Bauer is 8-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 18 starts this year with 107 K's in 109 1/3 innings.  But what really stands out is that Bauer is 2-0 (4-1 money line) with a 2.60 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.  He has allowed only 3 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in three starts against the White Sox in 2015 alone.

Jeff Samardzija has to have a hard time focusing right now with all of the trade rumors surrounding him.  The right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 19 starts this year, but 2-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 10 road starts.

The White Sox are 10-25 in their last 35 overall.  Chicago is 0-7 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starters.  The White Sox are 0-4 in Samardzija's last four starts as an underdog.  The Indians are 71-34 in their last 105 home games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-2 in Bauer's last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 5-17 in their last 22 trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Indians Thursday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +110

The Baltimore Orioles (46-46) lost Game 1 of this series to the New York Yankees (51-41) 3-2 last night to fall five games behind them in the AL East.  Look for the Orioles to come back motivated for a win tonight in Game 2.

Kevin Gausman has only made three starts this season.  Two have been dominant as he allowed 2 earned runs over 11 1/3 innings to Toronto and Texas, but he was rocked by Minnesota.  However, Gausman has owned the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.

Ivan Nova has pitched decently in limited action for the Yankees as well with a 3.42 ERA and 1.352 WHIP over four starts, but he's 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three.  Nova has posted a 5.17 ERA in 12 career starts against Baltimore.  In his last two starts against the Orioles, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are 11-5 in their last 16 games as an underdog.  The Yankees are 1-4 in Nova's last five starts.  New York is 1-6 in Nova's last seven starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles +110

The Baltimore Orioles (46-45) are chasing the New York Yankees (50-41) for first place in the AL East.  This is a big series for them, making Game 1 that much more important.  I look for the Orioles to take this game thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Wei-Yin Chen is in the midst of the best season of his career.  He has gone 4-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 17 starts for the Orioles, including 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in five road starts.  Chen has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing only three earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA.

The Yankees send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound.  The right-hander is 9-2 in spite of a 4.50 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 18 starts.  He has simply been lucky with the amount of run support he has received.  Eovaldi has faced the Orioles twice this season, posting a 4.22 ERA and 1.874 WHIP while allowing five earned runs, 20 base runners and three homers in 10 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Baltimore is 9-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% over the last two seasons.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -129

Good value here with the Tampa Bay Rays (47-47) as small road favorites over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies (32-62).  The Rays know that this series is huge for them to get back into AL East contention.  Meanwhile, the Phillies are overvalued after a rare 3-game sweep of the Marlins last series.

Matt Moore is one of the most talented young starters in the game today.  He has been held back by injury, and he has posted poor numbers in limited action since returning to make three starts this year.  But there's no doubt he is the better starter tonight in thsi match-up.

Philadelphia will give the ball to David Buchanan, who is 0-5 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.854 WHIP in six starts.  He has been their worst starter, and he has been particularly poor at home.  Buchanan is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA in two home starts this year.

Moore is 10-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Moore is 18-3 (+14.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons.  The Phillies are 7-19 in Buchanan's last 26 starts.  The Rays are 15-5 in Moore's last 20 road starts.  Bet the Rays Monday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -110

The defending champion San Francisco Giants were 43-43 heading into their final series before the All-Star Break.  They have won five straight since thanks to an offense that is finally healthy and clicking.  The Giants have scored a combined 41 runs during their 5-game winning streak for an average of 8.2 per game.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are going in the other direction.  They have lost five in a row to drop to 42-47 on the year and nowhere near the wild-card race.  Now they'll throw Patrick Corbin, who is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in two starts this season since returning from injury last year.

Madison Bumgarner remains one of the best starters in baseball and should be getting more respect here.  He is 9-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.109 WHIP In 18 starts with 121 K's in 119 innings.  The left-hander is 7-5 with a 2.69 ERA in 20 career starts against Arizona.  Corbin is 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Bumgarner is 16-1 (+14.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  Arizona is 9-34 (-22.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Pirates -128

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their first game back from the All-Star Break yesterday to the Milwaukee Brewers.  I expect them to bounce back today.  It was a rare loss recently for the Pirates, who have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.

Francisco Liriano has been one of the best starters in the National League in 2015.  He has gone 5-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 18 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three.  Liriano has been at his best on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight starts away from home.

Jimmy Nelson hasn't been nearly as effective as Liriano this season.  Nelson is 6-9 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP In 18 starts this year.  He is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for the 39-52 Brewers today.

The Pirates are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Liriano's last five starts as a favorite.  The Pirates are 4-0 in Liriano's last four starts overall.  The Brewers are 1-5 in Nelson's last six home starts.  Milwaukee is 8-25 in their last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +134

The Tampa Bay Rays were reeling right before the All-Star Break.  However, they swept the Astros in their final series, and now they come out of the break at 46-45 and with some momentum.  I believe they will carry that momentum into this series with the Blue Jays, who have lost four of five.

The Rays clearly have the edge on the mound in this one and should not be dogs as a result.  Jake Odorizzi is having a very good season, going 5-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 13 starts.  He has pitched 10 scoreless innings over his last two.  Plus, Odorizzi has proven he can handle this Toronto lineup, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.815 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Drew Hutchison is extremely fortunate to have an 8-2 record in spite of a 5.33 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He has simply been getting unreal run support.  Hutchison has allowed 9 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Plus, he's 3-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Blue Jays are 3-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  The Rays are 4-0 in Odorizzi's last four starts as an underdog.  Tampa Bay is 7-2 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 0-8 in their last eight after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Rays Friday.

20* Cards/Pirates ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -165

The Pittsburgh Pirates are just 3.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central lead.  They want to inch closer before the All-Star Break with another win Sunday and a 3-1 series victory to make a statement going into the second half.

Francisco Liriano has clearly revived his career in Pittsburgh.  The left-hander is 5-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 17 starts with 119 K's in 108 1/3 innings.  He is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three starts.  Liriano is 4-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 11 career starts against St. Louis as well.

Tim Cooney is no more than a spot starter for the Cardinals.  He has only made three starts this season and hasn't been very effective in them.  Cooney has posted a 3.95 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings pitched.  He is only averaging 4.6 innings per start.  He won't be able to go very deep into this game as the Pirates will get to St. Louis' bullpen early.  That's big considering these teams played 14 innings yesterday.

Pittsburgh is 15-3 (+11.1 Units) against the money line after a one run win this season.  The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.  The Pirates are 35-16 in their last 51 overall.  Pittsburgh is 62-29 in its last 91 home games.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -114

After losing their last two games by exactly one run, the Chicago Cubs are going to be highly motivated for a victory Saturday to try and get back in the win column before the All-Star Break.  I like their chances with the red-hot Jon Lester on the mound.

Lester hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last two starts.  He has pitched 14 innings while allowing only 10 base runners and striking out 15 batters.  This guy just seems to get stronger as the season goes on.  In his last three starts against the White Sox, Lester is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA while allowing 4 earned runs in 23 innings and striking out 29 batters.

There's no denying that Chris Sale has been dominant this season with a 2.80 ERA in 16 starts.  However, he is in a bit of a letdown spot here.  His streak of consecutive starts with 10 or more strikeouts came to an end in his last outing, and he won't bring the same focus to this start because of it.

The Cubs are 11-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season.  Lester is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  The White Sox are 16-36 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -108

After getting shut out by elite starter Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Reds to take Game 2.  It's going to be much easier on their hitters going up against a guy like David Phelps than Fernandez.

Phelps has gone 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 13 starts and four relief appearances in 2015.  The right-hander is also 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati.  In his lone start against the Reds this season, Phelps allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Cincinnati on June 21.

The Reds clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one with Mike Leake.  He has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight road starts.  But what stands out the most is that Leake is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in five career starts against Miami.  He pitched 7 shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Miami on June 19.

Miami is 0-6 (-7.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Miami is 1-6 in Phelps' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Reds Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -127

The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of this series Thursday.  They should be much bigger favorites given the massive edge they have on the mound.

Ace David Price has put up AL Cy Young-caliber numbers in 2015.  The left-hander has gone 8-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 17 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine road starts.  Price has gone 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota as well.

Mike Pelfrey is not on Price's level.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.762 WHIP in his last three.  Pelfrey is 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in eight career starts against Detroit.  In his last start against the Tigers on May 14th, he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 12 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 13-1 loss.

The Tigers are 12-0 in Price's last 12 starts vs. division opponents.  Price is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.  Detroit is 8-0 in Price's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Tigers Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's -107

The Oakland A's are the most underrated team in baseball right now due to their 39-47 record.  They actually have one of the best run differentials (+50) in baseball in spite of that poor record, but they have gone 7-21 in one-run games.  That's simply poor luck and I look for the A's to be a great bet the rest of the way.

Oakland clearly has the edge on the mound today behind Scott Kazmir, who is 5-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over 16 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three.  Kazmir is 8-8 with a 3.48 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees.  In his last two starts against New York, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.

C.C. Sabathia continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers despite being washed up.  The left-hander has been terrible over the last three years, and it hasn't been any better in 2015.  Sabathia is 3-8 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in six home starts.  He is 8-11 with a 4.75 ERA in 28 career starts against Oakland.  In his last two starts against the A's, Sabathia has allowed 11 earned runs and four homers over 12 innings.

The A's are 7-0 in their last seven road games.  Oakland is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The A's are 5-0 in their last five Wednesday games.  Oakland is 10-1 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Oakland.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -123

After losing seven straight games to fall back to 42-42 on the season, the San Francisco Giants enter this game with the New York Mets highly motivated for a victory.  I expect that motivation to lead to a win today behind starter Matt Cain.

Cain will be making his second start back from injury and should be much sharper this time around.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Mets.  In his last two starts against New York, Cain has allowed just two earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.

Bartolo Colon has finally started to slow down this season, going 9-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts, including 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in seven road starts.  The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.449 WHIP In five career starts against the Giants as well.

The Mets are 6-24 in their last 30 games as an underdog.  New York is 7-19 in its last 26 road games.  The Mets are 0-5 in Colon's last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Giants are 17-5 in their last 22 during game 2 of a series.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +132

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value today as big road underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They will be motivated for a win today after dropping two straight and five of their last seven overall.

I'll gladly back ace James Shields at this price.  The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 4.14 ERA over 17 starts this season.  He has struck out 123 batters in 104 1/3 innings.  Shields faced Pittsburgh on May 29th, giving up two earned runs in six innings of a 6-2 Padres' victory.

A.J. Burnett is way overvalued right now after his improbable first half where he went 7-3 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 16 starts.  Burnett is just 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego.  He allowed five runs, four earned, and 10 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres on May 28th.

Shields is 9-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Burnett is 1-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  San Diego is 6-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games after two straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Padres Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Sunday as small road favorites over the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers are getting too much respect due to their surprising 41-41 start this year.  They have been outscored 2-21 by the Angels in the first two games of this series.

Los Angeles will complete the sweep today behind C.J. Wilson.  The left-hander has gone 6-6 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven road starts.  Wilson gave up one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-1 win over Texas on April 24th in his lone start against the Rangers this season.

Colby Lewis has put up respectable numbers at 8-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts this season, but he's overvalued as a result.  Plus, Lewis is 5-9 with a 5.44 ERA in 18 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 40-17 in their last 57 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Los Angeles is 21-8 in Wilson's last 29 starts as a favorite.  The Rangers are 14-41 in their last 55 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Texas is 0-7 in its last seven vs. AL West foes.  The Rangers are 1-7 in Lewis' last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -116

The Boston Red Sox lost in extra innings to the Houston Astros yesterday.  I believe they'll be extra motivated today as a result, and I certainly feel that they get revenge due to the edge they have on the mound.

Clay Buchholz is having a fine season at 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 16 starts.  But he has really lowered those numbers thanks to his dominance of late.  Indeed, Buchholz is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in his last three starts.  Plus, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Collin McHugh has managed to turn around his season by pitching well here of late as well.  Even with his recent successes, McHugh is 9-3 in spite of a 4.16 ERA in 16 starts this year.  He has simply been fortunate to get great run support in his starts, which is certainly a luck factor.

Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 51-13 (79.7%, +34.2 units) over the last five seasons.  Boston is 7-0 in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -129

The Washington Nationals are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Francisco Giants today.  They will be highly motivated for a win as they come in off two straight losses in their previous series against the Braves.

Gio Gonzalez has not pitched very well on the road this season, but he has been very solid at home, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in six starts.  He's coming off his best start of the season, pitching 7 shutout innings against the Pirates last time out.

Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.  He'll be opposed by Jake Peavy, who is washed up.  Peavy is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his two starts this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

The Giants are 0-5 in Peavy's last five starts. San Francisco is 0-4 in its last four road games.  Washington is 6-0 in its last six home games.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four during Game 1 of a series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Nationals Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -117

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as small home favorites over the Texas Rangers.  After losing two out of three thus far in this series, there's no question that the Orioles will be motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid losing the series.

Kevin Gausman was one of the top prospects in the game when he was drafted by Baltimore.  While he will be making just his second start of 2015, he pitched well in his first, giving up just two runs and four hits over five innings of a 5-3 win at Toronto on June 20.

Yovani Gallardo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to his recent performances.  He actually hasn't allowed a run in any of his last three starts.  But he'll now be up against a potent Baltimore offense that has scored 4 or more runs in 10 of its last 12 games overall.

The Orioles are 61-28 in their last 89 home games.  Baltimore is 56-22 in its last 78 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Orioles are 9-3 in Gausman's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rangers are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings, including 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs finally put an end to their five-game losing streak yesterday with a 1-0 victory over the Mets, who had previously won four straight coming in.  I look for the Cubs to take Game 2 of this series tonight thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Ace Jon Lester has not pitched up to his potential to this point, but that's also a reason why we are getting him at such a great price here.  Lester is 4-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts.  He has pitched much better of late, going 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts.  The left-hander is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against New York.

Bartolo Colon has finally started to show signs of slowing down in 2015.  The veteran is 9-6 in spite of a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts this year.  Colon has really been battered in his last two starts, going 0-2 while allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.  Colon is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.

The Mets are 23-47 in their last 70 games as an underdog.  New York is 22-53 in its last 75 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  New York is 1-6 in its last seven games following a loss.  The Mets are 0-4 in Colon's last four starts as a dog of +110 to +150.  Chicago is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118

The Chicago Cubs could not possibly be more motivated for a victory than they will be tonight when they take on the New York Mets.  They have lost five straight coming in, while the Mets have won four in a row.  I'll back the more hungry Cubs in this one.

Kyle Hendricks has pitched well this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA, but he has been unfortunate to have that big of an ERA considering his WHIP is just 1.220 and he doesn't walk many batters or give up a ton of home runs.  Hendricks is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his lone career start against the Mets.

Jon Niese, on the other hand, is fortunate to have a 4.12 ERA in spite of his 3-7 record and 1.518 WHIP over 14 starts this year.  The left-hander has struggled to remain in the rotation.  Nise is 3-5 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in nine career starts against the Cubs as well.

The Mets are 35-79 in their last 114 games as a home underdog.  New York is 4-22 in its last 26 games as an underdog overall.  New York is 5-17 in Niese's last 22 starts as an underdog.  The Mets are 7-21 in Niese's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 1-7 in Niese's last eight starts.  The Mets are 0-8 in Niese's last eight starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

This over/under has been set too low tonight between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The Blue Jays sport the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game, while the Red Sox are heating up at the plate, scoring four or more runs in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Clay Buchholz has pitched OK this season at 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 15 starts.  This will be the fourth time that he has faced the Blue Jays this year, which is a huge advantage for Toronto.  Buchholz is 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in those three starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 15 innings.

R.A. Dickey hasn't exactly enjoyed life in the AL East.  He is 3-7 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  Dickey  has also faced the Red Sox three times this season, which is an advantage for Boston as well.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA in those three starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings.

The OVER is 7-2-2 in Buchholz's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-4 in Buchholz's last 17 starts on 4 days of rest.  The OVER is 5-0-2 in Dickey's last seven starts on 5 days of rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +127

After dropping four straight, including the first two of this series with the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs clearly won't be lacking any motivation Sunday night.  They'll be hungry to get back in the win column and to avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with Jason Hammel on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.938 WHIP In 14 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last three.  He has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past two seasons.

Carlos Martinez is having a great season for St. Louis as well, going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 14 starts and one relief appearance.  He has been a little shakier at home, going 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in six starts.  In his lone start against Chicago this season, Martinez allowed 7 earned runs and 13 base runners over 3 2/3 innings.  He'll get rocked again tonight.

The Cubs are 14-3 in Hammel's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record, including 5-0 in his last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games after allowing 5 or more runs in its previous game.  Bet the Cubs Sunday night.

25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -139

After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Seattle Mariners, I fully expect the Los Angeles Angels to pick up a win at home in Game 2.  They have a massive advantage on the mound tonight, and as a result, they have earned AL West GOTY status.

Garrett Richards has shown no signs of being slowed by injury after missing much of last season.  He is 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 13 starts, including 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six home starts.  Richards owns the Mariners, going 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in six career starts against them.

J.A. Happ is having a solid season overall at 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 14 starts.  However, he is just 1-2 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in seven road starts, and 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three.  The kicker is that Happ is 0-3 with a 9.83 ERA and 2.366 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels, having never beaten them.

The Mariners are 0-5 in Happ's last five starts.  Seattle is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  The Angels are 51-25 in their last 76 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Los Angeles is 22-8 in Richards' last 30 home starts.  The Angels are 8-2 in Richards' last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A's -119

The Oakland A's have finally turned it around.  They are starting to play up to their potential and will be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  The A's have won five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall.  They scored a combined 22 runs in sweeping the Rangers in three games last series.

Oakland will be motivated following the brawls that took place the last time these teams got together, and they really want to stick it to the Royals as a result.  Jess Hahn is a solid starter, going 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in eight home starts.

Edinson Volquez has had a good year in Kansas City, going 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts.  He has faltered a bit of late, giving up 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Hahn has allowed 2 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts in beating the Angels and Padres.

Hahn picked 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory at Kansas City earlier this season in his lone career start against the Royals.  Volquez is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland.  The A's are 4-0 in Hahn's last four starts.  Oakland is 5-0 in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the A's Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

Two terrible starting pitchers square off tonight against two of the better lineups in baseball.  The end result will be a high-scoring affair between the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros in Game 2 of this series Friday.

Nathan Eovaldi is 6-2 in spite of a 4.95 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 14 starts this season for New York.  Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in seven road starts, and 1-1 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Vincent Velasquez is no more than a spot starter for the Astros.  He has gone 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in three starts this year.  Velasquez has already walked 10 batters in 13 innings, and as a result, he's only averaging 4.3 innings per start this year.

The Yankees are 9-1 OVER (+8.0 Units) when playing on Friday this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eovaldi's last seven starts overall. The OVER is 8-0 in Yankees last eight during Game 2 of a series.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees last six vs. a right-handed starter.  These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing the OVER.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -110

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Johnny Cueto at this kind of price.  We'll take advantage Friday and back the red-hot Reds, who have won six of their last eight games overall while scoring at least five runs in seven of those contests. 

The Mets have lost seven of their last eight while scoring two or fewer runs in seven of those contests.  Noah Syndergaard is a promising rookie starter, but he's just 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Mets.

Cueto continues to dominate year in and year out, going 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Cueto is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last five starts against New York, allowing just seven earned runs over 33 innings of work.

The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 53-20 in Cueto's last 73 starts as a favorite.  The Mets are 16-40 in their last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  New York is 34-79 in its last 113 games as a home underdog.  Take the Reds Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +110

After getting shut out by the San Francisco Giants yesterday, I look for the San Diego Padres to come back motivated tonight to take Game 3 of this series.  They have lost nine of their last 10 series at AT&T Park and want to change that fortune.

I like their chances with ace James Shields on the mound.  Shields is 7-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He is also 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  He gave up just one run over seven innings of a 10-2 San Diego victory in his lone start against the Giants this season on April 11th.

Chris Heston has pitched well for San Francisco this year, going 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 14 starts.  However, he has not fared well at all against the Padres.  Indeed, Heston is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing 8 earned runs and 22 base runners over 9 innings of work.

Shields is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last two seasons.  Shields is 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons.  Shields is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 home games.  Bet the Padres Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 8.5

Both the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox are swinging the bats very well over the past couple days.  The Orioles have scored a combined 19 runs in their last two games, while the Red Sox have put up 17 runs their last two contests.  The hot bats should continue for both squads tonight.

Bud Norris has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 2-5 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in nine starts.  Norris has allowed a whopping 37 earned runs in 44 innings pitched this season.

Clay Buchholz is 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 14 starts this season for Boston, including 1-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in seven home starts.  In his last two starts against the Orioles, Buchholz has allowed 8 earned runs and 20 base runners over 8 1/3 innings.

Buchholz is 8-0 OVER (+8.1 Units) when playing on Wednesday over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 9-0 in Norris' last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Norris' last 7 starts vs. American League East.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -113

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies today.  They should be much bigger favorites due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  They have won seven of their last 10 while the Rockies have dropped nine of their last 12 coming in.

Chase Anderson has been their best starter this season.  The right-hander has gone 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 13 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in seven road starts.  Anderson is also 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three outings.

Kyle Kendrick has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.  The right-hander is 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 14 starts.  He doesn't enjoy pitching inside Coors Field, going 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in six home starts.  Kendrick is also 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.  Arizona is 8-2 in its last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 38-84 in their last 122 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Colorado is 17-41 in its last 58 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rockies are 1-7 in Kendrick's last eight starts as an underdog.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -124

This is a very generous price to get the Los Angeles Angels at tonight.  They will be motivated to bounce back from two straight losses over the weekend to the A's, and they have the clear edge on the mound tonight that will help them get back in the win column.

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 4-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.218 WHIP with 78 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings.  Santiago is 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in eight home starts.  In his lone start against Houston this season, the left-hander pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings on May 7th.

Brett Oberholtzer has only made five starts for Houston this year.  He is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in spite of a lofty 1.443 WHIP.  Oberholtzer is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two road starts.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

The Astros are 29-63 in their last 92 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Houston is 5-11 in Oberholtzer's last 16 road starts.  The Angels are 11-2 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Los Angeles is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 3-10 in their last 13 trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Monday.

20* Giants/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +162

The San Francisco Giants are showing great value today as huge road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Giants are rolling right now having won three straight, and they would love nothing more than to sweep the rival Dodgers Sunday.

This line would indicate that Los Angeles has a huge edge on the mound tonight, but that's simply not the case.  Tim Lincecum is 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 starts this season.  Lincecum is 10-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 27 career starts against Los Angeles.

Brett Anderson is 2-4 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts this season for the Dodgers, but he's getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  Anderson is 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 21-11 (+14.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  San Francisco is 10-3 in its last 13 road games, and 9-2 in its last 11 road games as an underdog.  The Giants are 12-2 in their last 14 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Bet the Giants Sunday night.

20* Tigers/Yankees AL Saturday No-Brainer on Detroit +120

The New York Yankees have won three straight after a 7-2 win over Detroit in Game 1 of this series last night.  Alex Rodriquez collected his 3,000th hit in the win, so it was an emotional day for him and the team.  I believe they will suffer a letdown Saturday after such a historic night Friday.

Detroit, meanwhile, will come in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight coming in.  I like its chances to put an end to this skid with Alfredo Simon on the mound.  Simon is 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in his last three.

Nathan Eovaldi just cannot seem to turn the corner in the big leagues.  He is a well below-average starter.  Eovaldi has struggled in his first season in New York, going 5-2 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after five straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last three seasons.  Simon is 8-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in June games over the last two seasons.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -125

The Houston Astros are the real deal.  They went on a long losing streak at the beginning of June, but they have since kicked it into high gear after the arrival of top prospect Carlos Correa.  They have won five straight while scoring a combined 43 runs in the process, or an average of 8.6 runs per game.

I look for the bats to stay red hot against Seattle starter Roenis Elias, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in 10 starts.  Elias' last start came against the Astros on June 14th.  He was battered for 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 3 1/3 innings of a 13-0 road loss.

Lance McCullers has been brilliant as a rookie.  He has gone 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP with 40 strikeouts in 36 innings for the Astros.  McCullers faced Elias in that June 14th game, pitching five shutout innings to get the win in the 13-0 triumph.

Houston is 9-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after four or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are 0-8 in their last eight home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Seattle is 0-7 in Elias' last seven home starts.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Astros Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+102)

After losing the first three games of this series to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to avoid the sweep tonight.  I like their chances to win this game by multiple runs due to the massive edge they have on the mound.

Zach Greinke has posted NL Cy Young-caliber numbers to this point.  He has gone 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.969 WHIP over 13 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke sports a 2.91 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas as well.

Anthony Ranuado has made just one start this season for Texas, and it was a horrible one.  He gave up six earned runs and eight base runners over 1 2/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to the Angels on April 15th.  I expect he'll get roughed up by this potent Dodgers' lineup today as well.

Greinke is 13-2 against the run line (+13.7 Units) after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Dodgers are winning in this spot by an average of 3.2 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/White Sox OVER 8

The books have set the bar way too low in this contest between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox today.  This game will be played under AL rules with a designated hitter.  It will also be a match-up between two terrible starting pitchers in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

Jeff Locke has gone 3-3 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Pirates.  While he has been great at home, it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, Locke is 1-2 with an 8.37 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in five starts away from home this year.

John Danks has been terrible for years now.  He is having an awful 2015 campaign as well.  Danks has gone 3-6 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.529 WHIP over 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in five home starts.

Locke is 10-0 OVER (+10.1 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Locke is 7-0 OVER (+7.1 Units) after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  Locke is 8-0 OVER (+8.2 Units) in road games after a win over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +120

I look for the Boston Red Sox to finally turn the corner now that they put an end to their seven-game losing streak with an emphatic 9-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves yesterday.  They should not be underdogs in Game 3 of this series tonight as it shifts to Atlanta.

Joe Kelly hasn't pitched great this season, but I believe he is a better starter than Alex Wood.  Plus, Kelly has pitched much better here of late in going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts against Texas, Toronto and Oakland.  Now he faces a weak Atlanta lineup under NL rules with no DH. Kelly is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta, allowing just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings. 

Alex Wood is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Wood has gone 4-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  While the left-hander has been solid on the road, he has been terrible at home.  Indeed, Wood is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in four home starts this year.

Kelly is 10-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Boston is 60-26 in its last 86 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are 6-1 in Kelly's last seven starts as an underdog.  The Braves are 0-5 in Wood's last five starts as a favorite, and 0-5 in his last five home starts.  Take the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in an extremely low-scoring series to this point.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 through the first five games and would be 4-0-1 if not for overtime.  Yet, the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it in Game 6 tonight.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187, 185 and 195 points at the end of regulation in the first five games, respectively.  That's an average of 187.4 combined points per game, which roughly 7 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  That's giving us seven points of value on the UNDER tonight.

Yes, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 5, but the Cavaliers inexplicably played small ball and didn't give Timofey Mozgov enough minutes despite the huge game that he had in Game 4.  They cannot go small ball against the Warriors, who excel at it.  Look for head coach David Blatt to get back to playing the kind of big ball that helped them to a 2-1 series lead.

That will help lead to an even lower-scoring Game 6.  Plus, this game will be played in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers will control the tempo when playing at home.  They want to slow this thing down to a snail's pace with Lebron James eating up the shotclock with the ball in his hands to shorten the game.

Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 38-17-1 in Cavaliers last 56 games when playing on one days' rest.  Golden State is 9-1 UNDER after three consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +121

We are getting one of the best teams in baseball at an excellent price today as the Washington Nationals are nice-sized road underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Nationals will bounce back from their Game 1 loss to the Rays yesterday with a victory in Game 2.

Tanner Roark was the odd man out in the rotation at the start of the season despite a brilliant 2014 campaign.  Well, he has found himself back in the rotation due to injuries to a couple of Washington starters.  Roark has performed well, going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.236 WHIP over 43 2/3 innings pitched.

He is clearly a better starter than Alex Colome, who is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  Colome is 3-2 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in four home starts.  I'll gladly fade him today.

Washington is 25-11 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last three seasons.  The Nationals are 25-10 in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Washington is 7-0 in Roark's last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  The Nationals are 8-2 in Roark's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rays are 0-4 in Colome's last four starts.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -105

After losing back-to-back games to the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend, I look for the Kansas City Royals (34-25) to get back in the win column Monday against the lowly Milwaukee Brewers, who are just 24-40 on the season.

The Royals have the clear edge on the mound behind Edinson Volquez, who is 5-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Volquez has proven to be a huge addition to the Royals' rotation this year, and he allowed just one earned run over seven innings in his last start against Minnesota.

Kyle Lohse has been one of the worst starters in baseball in 2015.  The right-hander is 3-7 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 13 starts this year, including 2-4 with an 8.41 ERA and 1.614 WHIP in seven home starts.  Lohse is also 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.916 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Royals are 38-17 in their last 55 during game 1 of a series.  Kansas City is 8-1 in its last nine interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 6-1 in Volquez's last seven starts.  The Brewers are 8-23 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Kansas City is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in a very low-scoring series up to this point.  All four games would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and Game 2 even went under with overtime.  The oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for Game 5, and we'll take advantage.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187 and 185 points at the end of regulation in the first four games, respectively.  That's an average of 185.5 combined points per game, which is exactly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  So, we are getting 10 points of value on the UNDER here.

I just don't foresee Game 5 being high-scoring.  The Cavaliers have been woeful offensively, shooting 41.5%, 32.2%, 46.1% and 33.0% in their four games.  But they've become a defensive juggernaut with their new lineup due to injuries, limiting the Warriors to 44.3%, 39.8%, 40.0% and 46.8% in the four games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 74-27 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Golden State is 14-4 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  The UNDER is 69-27-2 in Cavaliers last 98 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -134

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays, I look for the Chicago White Sox to avoid the sweep in Game 3 and pick up a win.  They send their ace to the mound in Chris Sale, who is on a historic run here of late.

Sale (6-2, 3.04 ERA) has allowed one run and 12 hits in 22 2/3 innings in his last three outings.  With 49 strikeouts in his last four, Sale became the first White Sox pitcher to fan at least 10 in as many contests.  He is 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts at Tampa Bay.

Nate Karns has been slid for the Rays at 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 starts, but he has actually struggled at home.  The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven road starts this year.  Karns allowed six earned runs and three homers over five innings of a 5-10 loss to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

Tampa Bay is 7-22 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 6-1 in Sale's last seven starts.  The Rays are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a home underdog.  Take the White Sox Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

Two of the more potent offenses in baseball square off against two of the worst starting pitchers in the game tonight when the New York Yankees take on the Baltimore Orioles.  The Yankees have scored six or more runs in four of their last eight, while the Orioles have scored five or more in four of their last five, including 17 the past two days alone.

Bud Norris has gone 2-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 1.763 WHIP in seven starts this year for the Orioles.  He has gone 4-1 in spite of a 4.02 ERA in six career starts against New York.  In two starts against the Yankees this season, Norris has allowed 7 earned runs over 8 1/3 innings.

C.C. Sabathia continues to struggle in 2015 as he is clearly on the downside of his career.  The left-hander is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Sabathia has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts against Baltimore, including 4 or more in four of the last five.

The OVER is 20-8-1 in Yankees last 29 games following a loss.  The OVER is 21-10-2 in Sabathia's last 33 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The OVER is 14-4 in Sabathia's last 18 starts as a road favorite.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Norris' last eight starts overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.