Winning Sports Picks

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -150 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned it around during this home stand with the lowly Reds and Marlins.  They have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall.  Their bats have come to life as they’ve scored a combined 30 runs in the four games. 

Now Zack Greinke looks to continue that momentum.  The right-hander has been dominant at home throughout his career, and that hasn’t changed this season.  Greinke is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in six home starts this season. 

Caleb Smith has held his own for the Marlins this season, but the bullpen edge certainly goes to the Diamondbacks.  They have a 2.52 ERA in all games this season, while the Marlins have a 5.79 ERA in all games and a 6.91 ERA in road games. 

Greinke is 13-1 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams with an OBP of .315 or worse over the last two seasons.  Greinke is 12-0 in home games vs. a team with a losing record over the last two years.  Greinke is 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -130 

I love the spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks today.  They had yesterday off while the Marlins played a late game in San Diego.  The Diamondbacks will be rested and refocused, ready to take down the 20-35 Marlins in Game 1 of this series tonight. 

Clay Buchholz has stepped into Arizona’s rotation and performed brilliantly.  He has posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.455 WHIP in his two starts, giving up just 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 11 innings.  He’ll be able to shut down a weak Marlins’ lineup that is hitting just .229 and scoring 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. 

Elieser Hernandez has held his own thus far with a 2.40 ERA in his three starts this season.  But he is only averaging 5.0 innings per start, which could be a problem as the Marlins already have a tired bullpen, and that bullpen is likely to get tested early in this one.  It’s a bullpen with a 5.84 ERA on the season and a 7.09 ERA on the road. 

Plays on favorites of -125 to -175 (Arizona) - a cold hitting team batting .215 or worse in their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a batter in his last outing are 47-11 (81%, +30.8 units) over the last five seasons.  The Marlins are 13-31 in their last 44 road games.  Miami is 1-6 in its last seven games overall.  Arizona is 5-1 in its last six games following an off day.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

15* Rangers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 

It’s surprising to see a total this low for two average to below average starters in Mike Minor and Wade LeBlanc.  Also, these teams have combined for 14 and 13 runs the past two days, so getting over 7.5 seems like a very generous price on this total. 

Minor is 4-3 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in four road starts.  Minor last faced the Mariners in Seattle on May 15th, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 8-9 loss. 

LeBlanc has certainly been impressive in a small sample size this season, and that’s the key.  He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in five starts this year.  But most of that has come against sub-par lineups in Detroit, Minnesota (twice), Oakland and Toronto.  He’s due for a reality check soon. 

The OVER is 10-3-3 in Rangers last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1 in Minor’s last six starts.  The OVER is 18-8-2 in Mariners last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland +13 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been hearing all week leading up to Game 1 of the NBA Finals how they are the biggest underdogs in NBA Finals history.  They will be highly motivated to prove their doubters wrong in Game 1, just as they have been doing this entire season. 

They’re already motivated enough due to the rivalry they have formed with the Warriors as this is their fourth straight year meeting in the NBA Finals.  You know Lebron will be playing with a chip on his shoulder in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight as massive 13-point underdogs. 

Kevin Love is questionable with a concussion, but the Cavaliers proved they could win Game 6 and Game 7 without him against the Celtics.  The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala due to a knee injury once again.  All the numbers show how much better they are offensively AND defensively with Iguodala in the lineup.  His absence continues to get overlooked. 

Plays on underdogs (Cleveland) as a #4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Golden State is 6-17 ATS in its last 13 games following a win.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -138 

The Oakland A’s will be highly motivated for a win today to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Rays.  It was smart of them to move the start time up to 3:35 EST today so fans who want to attend the baseball game and watch the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Oakland can later at night.  I think the buzz will carry over to the baseball team today. 

Daniel Mengden has been lights out of late.  The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.591 WHIP in his last three starts.  Mengden hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs seven of his last eight starts, and he has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in six of those. 

Ryan Stanek is going to get pulled early in this one just as he did in his first and only start for the Rays on May 26th.  He went just 1 2/3 innings despite not allowing a single base runner against the Orioles.  The Rays are experimenting with using long relievers right now and while it has worked, it’s only a matter of time before it becomes too taxing on their bullpen. 

The Rays are 0-6 in their last six during Game 4 of a series.  The A’s are 5-0 in their last five after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Oakland is 4-1 in Mengden’s last five home starts.  Take the A’s Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) 

I’ve backed the Diamondbacks with success each of the last two days and I’m going to back them again here Wednesday to sweep the Cincinnati Reds.  They won 12-5 on Monday and 5-2 on Wednesday and should also win this game by two runs or more. 

The Diamondbacks have a huge advantage on the mound behind Pat Corbin, who is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.675 WHIP in six starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in seven career starts against Cincinnati. 

Sal Romano has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 2-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-3 with a 12.80 ERA and 2.686 WHIP in his last three.  Romano is also 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.970 WHIP in five road starts.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-11 loss to Arizona in his only career start against them last year. 

Cincinnati is 2-15 vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season, losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-15 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game this season, losing by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in Corbin’s last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 5-0 in Corbin’s last five starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -117 

The Diamondbacks have had a disastrous month of May.  That’s why they are so undervalued right now though, and they have a chance to get back on track with back-to-back home series with the Reds and Marlins here.  They won 12-5 over Cincinnati yesterday to drop the Reds to 19-36 on the season. 

Zack Godley has been great at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in four home starts.  He is coming off a bad start at Milwaukee, which has him undervalued as well. 

Luis Castillo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  He is 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in six road starts. 

Cincinnati is 2-14 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.  The Reds are 21-46 in their last 67 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are 22-9 in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +6.5 

It’s pretty remarkable this shift in point spread compared to the other three games played in Houston thus far.  The betting public is all over the Warriors in Game 7, which is evidenced by this adjustment.  We’ll gladly take the value side and the Houston Rockets as 6.5-point home underdogs. 

The Rockets were 2.5-point favorites for Game 1, 2-point favorites for Game 2, and 1-point favorites for Game 5, all at home.  Now they are 6.5-point underdogs, which is basically a 7.5 to 9-point adjustment.  I get the Chris Paul is a game-time decision, but he isn’t worth that much to the point spread. 

The Warriors have injury issues of their own that are getting overlooked here.  Andre Iguodala is doubtful with his knee injury after missing the last two games.  And the Warriors have certainly missed him, especially defensively.  Kevin Looney is also questionable with a toe injury, and he has been starting in Iguodala’s place.  Paul at least has the questionable tag, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gut it out. 

The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Rockets in Game 7 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -128 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been in a funk this entire month.  But after a 9-game road trip, they return home now to face the lowly Cincinnati Reds (19-35) and then the Miami Marlins the next two series.  This is an excellent chance for them to get back on track, starting with Game 1 tonight. 

Because of their recent struggles, we are getting the Diamondbacks at a cheaper price than we should be today.  They clearly have the advantage on the mound behind Matt Koch, who is 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has held his own for Arizona. 

Homer Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in 11 starts for the Reds.  It hasn’t gotten any better of late for him as Bailey is 1-1 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.727 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Diamondbacks should get right offensively against him. 

Cincinnati is 2-13 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.  The Reds are 8-23 in Bailey’s last 31 starts.  The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Arizona is 21-9 in its last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -129 

The Washington Nationals are playing some great baseball right now and have moved to within one game of the Braves for 1st place in the NL East.  They have gone 18-6 in their last 24 games overall.  Now they get to face the Baltimore Orioles (17-36), who own the second-worst record in the American League. 

Washington certainly has the advantage on the mound in this one.  Gio Gonzalez has gone 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in nine starts this season.  The left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts as well. 

Alex Cobb has been awful in his first season with the Orioles in 2018.  He has gone 1-6 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.932 WHIP in eight starts.  He is 0-2 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in two home starts this year. 

Baltimore is 7-24 as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Orioles are 1-11 after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games this season.  The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  The Orioles are 0-9 in their last nine interleague games.  Baltimore is 1-7 in Cobb’s last eight starts.  Roll with the Nationals Monday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 200 

Every game in Boston thus far has gone UNDER the total in this series.  The Cavs and Celtics have combined for 191, 201 and 179 points in their three meetings in Boston for an average of 190.3 combined points per game.   

Now we’re seeing a 200-point total for Game 7, and I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  This game will be played close to the vest, and refs will be swallowing their whistles trying to let the players decide the game. 

Another key factor that points to the UNDER is that Cleveland’s second-best player in Kevin Love is going to be out with a concussion that he suffered in Game 6.  That is going to force Cleveland to play a bigger lineup the majority of the game with more of Tristan Thompson.  It will be more of a defensive lineup, and the Cavs will certainly miss Love’s floor spacing on offense. 

Boston is 12-3 UNDER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Cavs last 21 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Yankees OVER 8 

Expect plenty of runs between the Yankees and Angels today to push this total OVER 8 runs.  This is a very low total for two of the better offensive teams in the American League.  They combined for 15 runs yesterday and a similar output can be expected today. 

Garrett Richards is having a solid season at 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 10 starts.  However, Richards hates facing the Yankees, going 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been shaky each of the last two seasons.  He is 5-2 with a 5.08 ERA in nine starts this year.  That includes 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in four home starts, and 1-0 with a 6.06 ERA in his last three outings. 

The Yankees are 11-1 to the OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season.  New York is 12-3 to the OVER off a loss this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Tanaka’s last seven starts.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -143 

The Colorado Rockies are on a 9-game home stand here where they expect to make up some serious ground.  They beat the Reds yesterday, and I expect them to sweep them.  Look for them to get a victory in Game 2 tonight against the 18-34 Reds. 

Tyler Henderson has held his own this season at 3-1 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts.  Anderson is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in one career start against Cincinnati. 

Tyler Mahle is 3-6 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 10 starts for the Reds, including 2-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in five road starts.  This will be arguably his toughest challenge of the season.  Mahle is 0-2 with a 7.74 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 8 earned runs, 4 homers and 17 base runners in 9 1/3 innings. 

Cincinnati is 1-12 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Reds are 17-43 in their last 60 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Colorado is 35-16 in its last 51 home meetings with Cincinnati.  Take the Rockies Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 212 

This is by far the lowest total of the series.  It opened at 225.5 for Game 1, and we’ve seen totals of 225, 226, 227.5 and 219.5 since.  Sure, the under is 4-1 in this series, but now the value is with the OVER for Game 6 with a total of just 212 points. 

I think the Rockets will get fatigued without Chris Paul, which will impact their defense more than anything.  The Warriors should be able to hang a big number on them, but I’m not willing to lay the 12-point spread.  So I think the better bet is with the OVER as the Rockets should be able to somewhat keep pace. 

Both teams have shot awful the past two games, which is why we have seen such low-scoring affairs.  I have to think that the two best offensive teams in the NBA won’t be held down for a 3rd straight game.  Look for the Warriors to shoot 50% or better.   

The Rockets have shot 39% or less three consecutive games, and that’s not likely to happen again.  James Harden is in a 0-for-20 shooting slump from 3-point range.  He won’t be held without a 3-pointer in Game 6, and he should have a huge game knowing he needs it with Paul out.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100) 

The Colorado Rockies will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five overall.  They also come in with many advantages, not the least of which is rest.  The Reds played yesterday, while the Rockies had yesterday off to regroup and recover. 

No question the Rockies have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Jon Gray, who is 4-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 63 K’s in 55 2/3 innings.  Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against them. 

Sal Romano is 2-5 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 10 starts this season with only 34 K’s in 49 2/3 innings.  Romano has been awful on the road, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in four starts, and it’s not going to get any easier for him at hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight.  Romano is also 0-2 with a 15.96 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings to the Cubs and Giants. 

Cincinnati is 1-11 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  Colorado is 7-2 in Gray’s last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 16-34 in their last 50 meetings in Colorado.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Friday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in this series.  These games haven’t even been close as the home team has won by 9 or more points in all five meetings, and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  This trend will continue here tonight. 

The Cavs are 7-0 in their last seven playoff home games.  Their role players are averaging way more points at home than on the road in the playoffs, especially in this series.  Lebron James and company won’t go down without a fight as he tries to keep alive his 9th straight trip to the NBA Finals. 

It has been night and day for the Celtics home and away in these playoffs.  Boston hasn’t lost yet at home, but the Celtics are just 1-6 on the road in the postseason.  Their lone win came in overtime against the 76ers.  This young team just isn’t ready to win a big road game like this one in Game 6 tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -118 

The Philadelphia Phillies have the advantage of rest today.  The Phillies had yesterday off, while the Blue Jays concluded their series with the Angels.  The Phillies are 18-7 at home this season and are one of the most improved teams in baseball. 

Zach Eflin is lacking the respect he deserves from oddsmakers today.  He has been dominant in his three starts this season, going 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.923 WHIP with 17 K’s in 17 1/3 innings. 

Sam Naviglio is getting too much respect tonight.  He has only made one start this season against the Oakland A’s.  He has gone 5-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 14 starts and five relief appearances in his young career. 

The Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia is 22-8 in its last 30 home games.  The Phillies are 5-1 in Efflin’s last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last five vs. AL East opponents.  Roll with the Phillies Friday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +1 

The Houston Rockets earned a gutsy 95-92 win over Golden State in Game 4 to regain home-court advantage.  They don’t want to give it right back.  I look for them to follow it up with another home victory in Game 5 to take control of this series. 

The Rockets showed in Game 4 that they can defend every bit as good as the Warriors when they put their minds to it.  They held the Warriors to just 39.3% shooting and forced 16 turnovers.  That effort gave them the belief they can beat the Warriors, which is half the battle.  They should be oozing with confidence heading into Game 5, and they’ll feed off of their home crowd. 

The Warriors have some injury concerns right now that have just popped up recently.  Andre Iguodala missed Game 4 with a knee injury and is questionable.  Klay Thompson also suffered a knee injury in Game 4 and wasn’t the same when he came back from the locker room.  He will play tonight, but he won’t be very effective, putting a ton of pressure on Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry to pick up the slack. 

The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are now 4-3 against the Warriors this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -115 

The Oakland A’s had gone 6-1 in their previous seven games prior to this series with the Mariners.  But despite allowing just four total runs the last two days, the A’s have gone 0-2 with a pair of one-run losses.  They’ll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight and get a win in Game 3. 

The A’s should be able to get their bats going today.  They’ll be teeing off on Felix Hernandez, who is 5-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Hernandez has been at his worst on the road, going 3-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in five road starts this season. 

Josh Lucas will be making his first start for the A’s.  He has held his own out of the bullpen this season, pitting a 1.35 ERA in five appearances.  He went 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of Brett Anderson last time out and can be extended further. 

Oakland is 12-4 in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are 0-5 in Hernandez’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The A’s are 14-4 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Oakland is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the A’s Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +1 

The Boston Celtics return home after a good effort in Game 4 in which they made the Cavaliers earn it.  They still control this series due to having home-court advantage, and I like them to get a victory here in Game 5 tonight. 

The Celtics have gone 9-0 at home in these playoffs and have won 10 in a row at home dating back to the regular season.  They are 36-14 at home this year.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with rabid fans that don’t make it easy on the opposition. 

Boston beat Cleveland 108-83 at home in Game 1 and 107-94 at home in Game 2.  Lebron James is the only one that can be trusted to show up for the Cavs on the road.  Their role players’ games have not traveled well, namely JR Smith, Kyle Korver and George Hill.  They aren’t getting much production from anyone but James on the road in these playoffs. 

The Celtics are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 23-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season, and 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Wednesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -110 

The Boston Red Sox should be much bigger favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They have won five of their last six to improve to 33-15 on the season.  They are 28-10 against right-handed starters and hitting .275 while scoring 5.7 runs per game against them. 

Chris Archer is no match for the Red Sox.  The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Archer is 2-12 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston.  The Red Sox are clearly his nemesis. 

David Price is 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is coming off a complete game in which he gave up just two runs and five base runners in 9 innings against the Orioles.  Price is 4-4 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay. 

Archer is 0-7 (-8.4 units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Red Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Boston is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -113

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory tonight over the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  They have lost four in a row coming in, including Game 1 to these Reds, who are just 17-32 on the season.  Look for the Pirates to get back in the win column tonight. 

Chad Kuhl is clearly the better starter in this matchup.  The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last three.  Kuhl is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Homer Bailey has been awful this season and is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA and 2.634 WHIP in his last three.  He faced the Pirates on April 5th and gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Pittsburgh. 

The Reds are 1-9 in Bailey’s 10 starts this season.  Cincinnati is 4-17 in Bailey’s last 21 home starts.  The Pirates are 5-1 in Kuhl’s last six starts.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Reds are 2-8 in Bailey’s last 10 starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +9 

The Houston Rockets got absolutely embarrassed in Game 3.  They shot just 39.5% while committing 19 turnovers as a team.  They’ll come back with a much better effort in Game 4 tonight to try and square this series at 2-2. 

I like the fact that this line has climbed to +9 after being a 7.5-point spread in Game 3.  This is just a result of public perception after Game 3.  But the Rockets aren’t nearly as bad as they showed, and the Warriors aren’t as good as they showed.  This is still a 3-3 series dating back to the start of the regular season and I view these teams as close to equals, so getting 9 points is too much. 

There is a key injury for the Warriors that is getting overlooked as well.  Andre Iguodala is doubtful with a knee injury.  He is the most underrated player on this team, and he even won NBA Finals MVP a few years back.  He does all the little things that go unnoticed.  Not having him on defense will make the Warriors extremely vulnerable on switches.  The Rockets will take advantage. 

The Warriors are 1-10 ATS in Tuesday games this season.  Golden State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Mike D’Antoni is 19-6 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days as the coach of Houston.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -126 

The Pittsburgh Pirates (26-20) head into this series with the Cincinnati Reds (16-32) highly motivated for a victory.  They lost three straight to the Padres over the weekend, and they certainly want to get back in the win column here against the lowly Reds. 

The Pirates have the clear advantage on the mound behind Jameson Taillon, who is 2-3 with a 3.97 ERA in nine starts, and 0-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last three.  Taillon is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, pitching 15 shutout innings while allowing only 7 base runners in the process. 

Matt Harvey is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in six starts, averaging just 4.8 innings per start.  The Reds have been very cautious with him since acquiring him from the Mets.  Harvey has not pitched into the 5th inning in any of his last two starts.  Harvey is 1-1 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in five career starts against Pittsburgh. 

The Pirates are 7-1 in Taillon’s last eight starts when working on five days of rest.  Pittsburgh is 12-2 in its last 14 when its opponent scores 2 runs or fewer in its previous game.  The Reds have scored a total of seven runs in their last four games.  The Reds are 18-42 in their last 60 games overall.  Cincinnati is 7-24 in its last 31 home games.  The Reds are 1-7 in their last eight games following an off day.  Take the Pirates Tuesday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7 

Cleveland improved to 6-1 at home in the playoffs this season with their 116-86 beat down of the Boston Celtics in Game 3.  The Cavaliers have now won six in a row at home and still have work to do here in Game 4 to even this series. 

The road struggles of the Boston Celtics also continued.  The Celtics haven’t lost at home yet, but they’re just 1-5 on the road in the playoffs.  Their only victory came in overtime against the 76ers.  Four of their five losses have come by double-digits. 

Cleveland’s role players have played much better at home in these playoffs.  Kyle Korver, JR Smith and George Hill all had very good games against the Celtics in Game 3.  They even got contributions from Larry Nance and Jordan Clarkson.  They will play well again tonight at home in Game 4. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+125) 

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory at home here against the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this series.  They were swept by the Dodgers over the weekend.  But now they face the lowly Padres and should be able to win by two runs or more. 

The Nationals certainly have the advantage on the mound in this one behind Gio Gonzalez, who is 4-2 with a 2.22 ERA in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in four home starts.  Gonzalez is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.  In his last two starts against the Padres, he has given up just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. 

Robbie Erlin will be making just his second start of the season for San Diego.  The first was not good as he gave up 6 and 8 base runners in 3 innings against the Dodgers on April 16th.  Erlin has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with a massive 16.40 ERA and 2.680 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

San Diego is 3-18 off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Gonzalez is 14-2 when working on 7 or more days’ rest in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday. 

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +8 

The Houston Rockets have been the better team all season over Golden State.  They won two of three meetings during the regular season, and they have been the better team for 3/4 of the first two games of this series.  The only exception was the second half of Game 2, but I don’t expect them to play that poorly again the rest of the series. 

The Rockets made some great adjustments in Game 2 both offensively and defensively.  They put more shooters on the floor in Game 2, and they defended Golden State’s pick and rolls much more effectively.  The end result was a 127-105 blowout victory in their favor. 

The key advantage the Warriors have in this series is targeting Stephen Curry.  They put Curry in numerous pick and rolls until he’s forced to switch on Harden, who keeps torching him time and time again.  This also wears out Curry, who recently returned from an ankle injury.  That’s why Curry has struggled so much on offense in these first two games.  Kevin Durant is the only play for the Warriors who is getting his consistently, but he’s having to do so in one-on-one isolation stuff, which the Rockets will live with. 

The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Houston is 10-3 ATS In its last 13 games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 3 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+110) 

It’s safe to say the Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost five straight coming in, including each of the first three against the Rays in this series.  They will be desperate to avoid the sweep today. 

I like the Angels’ chances of winning by two runs or more today behind Shohei Ohtani.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in six starts with 43 K’s in 32 2/3 innings.  His two best starts this season have come on Sunday afternoon home starts.  He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in three home starts this year. 

Lifetime reliever Sergio Romo will start for the Rays for a second straight day.  He only pitched one inning yesterday, and the plan will be for one more inning today most likely.  That will force the Rays to unload their bullpen early, which is going to be a big advantage for the Angels. 

The Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last seven Sunday games.  The Rays are 0-5 in their last five during Game 4 of a series.  The Angels are 5-1 in Ohtani’s last six starts.  Los Angeles is 4-0 in Ohtani’s last four Sunday starts.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Sunday. 

20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -6.5 

Lebron James has been in this situation before.  He has come back to win a series down 2-0 twice in six tries.  That’s pretty impressive, and he and his teammates won’t be lacking in confidence at all faced with this situation again. 

Previously, most of those 0-2 deficits came against much better teams than these Boston Celtics.  Give the Celtics credit, they have gotten the most out of their team.  But I think reality is about to set in in Cleveland, starting with Game 3 here Saturday night. 

Lebron has gotten zero help outside anyone not named Kevin Love in this series.  But role players usually play better at home, and you can expect the Kyle Korvers, George Hills and JR Smiths of the world to play much better in Cleveland in Game 3.  Almost all the role players played great in the sweep of Toronto, so they know they are capable. 

Boston hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs, but this young team has struggled on the road.  The Celtics are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road playoff games against the 76ers and Bucks.  Their lone win came in overtime.  This will be their toughest road test yet in Game 3 against a motivated Cavs squad.  Cleveland is 5-1 at home in the playoffs.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:

Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)

Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old.  He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse.  Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.

But it won’t matter either way.  Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths.  He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby.  He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.

Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby.  Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory.  He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness.  He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.

Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)

If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip.  Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.

Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out.  He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue.  He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.

There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race.  And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race.  He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.

Show:  No. 5 Good Magic  (3/1)

I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up.  There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.

Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start.  He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.  Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year.  He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender.  Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby.  Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.

Exacta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic

Trifecta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo

Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta.  Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta.  I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -109 

After losing four of their last five, the Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  They should get that win at a very nice value of basically even money at home Saturday. 

The 23-year-old phenom Fernando Romero gets the ball for the Twins tonight.  He is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three starts this season while striking out 20 batters in 16 2/3 innings.  He is the future of the franchise. 

Freddy Peralta was awesome in his debut for the Brewers last time out against the Rockies.  But he’s getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He hasn’t proven anything yet and certainly is no better than Romero. 

The Brewers are 23-47 in their last 70 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 15-5 in its last 20 interleague games overall.  Take the Twins Saturday.

2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:

Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)

Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old.  He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse.  Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.

But it won’t matter either way.  Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths.  He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby.  He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.

Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby.  Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory.  He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness.  He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.

Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)

If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip.  Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.

Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out.  He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue.  He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.

There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race.  And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race.  He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.

Show:  No. 5 Good Magic  (3/1)

I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up.  There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.

Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start.  He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.  Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year.  He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender.  Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby.  Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.

Exacta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic

Trifecta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo

Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta.  Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta.  I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -110

The St. Louis Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four of their last five, including Game 1 of this series to the Phillies.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column at a nice value at nearly even money tonight. 

Starter Michael Wacha has been solid this season, going 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in eight starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five starts.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies as well. 

Jake Arrieta has been very good at home for the Phillies, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in three road starts.  Arrieta is also 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against St. Louis, giving up 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings. 

The Phillies are 16-42 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 25-57 in its last 81 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven starts.  St. Louis is 27-11 in its last 38 during game 2 of a series.  The Cardinals are 40-19 in Wacha’s last 59 home starts.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Wacha’s last 10 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +129 

I’m confused at the fact that the Rockies are underdogs to the Giants today.  For starters, the Rockies had yesterday off while the Giants hosted the Reds and lost.  So they have the advantage of rest coming in. 

But most importantly, the Rockies have the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Chad Bettis is a great story as a cancer survivor.  He’s pitching like today will be his last day this season.  Bettis is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five road starts.  Bettis has held the Giants to just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. 

Jeff Samardzija remains one of the worst starters in baseball, and he has been over the past few seasons.  Samardzija is 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.30 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two home starts.  The right-hander has lost five of his last six decisions against the Rockies.  He is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in his last four starts against Colorado, giving up 21 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. 

Colorado is 11-4 (+12.7 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  Colorado is 25-12 in Bettis’ last 37 starts.  The Rockies are 4-1 in Bettis’ last five road starts.  The Giants are 1-6 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 2-7 in Samardzija’s last nine starts, including 1-5 in his last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rockies Thursday. 

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -1 

The Houston Rockets are in must-win mode in Game 2 tonight.  They cannot afford to go back to Golden State down 0-2, or this series is over.  So look for their best effort here tonight, which will be good enough to get a win. 

The Rockets bogged down in the second half of Game 1.  I expect them to make the proper adjustments.  They committed too many turnovers, which led to easy layups on the other end for Golden State.  Look for them to clean that up, and to get more movement from everyone else around James Harden and Chris Paul to make it more difficult on Golden State’s defense. 

Plays on favorites (Houston) - revenging a loss by 10 points more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 117-69 (62.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They have lost the first two games of this series to Oakland and will be looking to avoid a rare sweep at home.  I think they get the job done by two runs or more with their ace on the mound. 

Chris Sale gets the ball for the Red Sox.  He is 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three home starts.  Sale is also 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland. 

Trevor Cahill has pitched well in limited action at home, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two road starts this season.  Cahill is also 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. 

Sale is 32-7 vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Boston is 29-5 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last two years.  It is winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After getting embarrassed 83-108 in Game 1 Sunday, the Cleveland Cavaliers will respond in a big way here Tuesday night in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game and grab home-court advantage for the series. 

The Cavs shot just 36% as a team in Game 1, including a woeful 4-of-26 (15.4%) from 3-point range.  They had been on fire from distance in the Toronto series, so it was an aberration.  They were probably rusty after sweeping the Raptors and getting five days off in between games.  The rust will be there no longer. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Cleveland is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Boston.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost five straight coming in, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Nationals over the weekend.  They will get back in the win column in Game 1 of this series with the Brewers Monday. 

Pat Corbin has been dominant this season, going 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in eight starts with 67 K’s in 51 innings.  Corbin has been lights out at home, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in five starts. 

Junior Guerra is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He got off to a fast start this season in his first three outings, but that was an aberration.  He has come back down to reality of late, going 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Arizona is 9-1 off four or more consecutive home games this season.  The Diamondbacks are 16-5 in Corbin’s last 21 home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Guerra’s last five road starts.  Milwaukee is 0-4 in Guerra’s last four starts vs. a team with winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1 

The Houston Rockets built their team to compete with the Warriors.  They executed it to perfection during the regular season as they snagged the No. 1 seed to earn home-court advantage, which gives them their best chance to dethrone the champs. 

We got a taste of what the Rockets could do during the regular season against the Warriors.  In fact, the Rockets won two of three meetings despite being underdogs in all three.  They can certainly score with the Warriors, and their defense is vastly improved over a year ago with both Chris Paul and Clint Capela playing huge roles on that end. 

While the Warriors have a tremendous starting five, their bench leaves a lot to be desired.  There’s no question that the Rockets will have the advantage in this series when the starting five aren’t on the floor for the Warriors.  And they typically only play 20 minutes per game or less together. 

The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Golden State is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Rockets Monday. 

15* Nationals/Diamondbacks ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Arizona -125

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Washington Nationals.  They have lost four straight, including the first three of this series, and desperately want to avoid the sweep. 

Zack Godley will lead the Diamondbacks to victory.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three home starts. 

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He has pitched well in his five starts this season, but it’s a small sample size and has mostly come against weak lineups. 

Hellickson has never beaten the Diamondbacks.  He is 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against Arizona.  You can take this never lost system backing Arizona straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a different team in these playoffs.  Lebron James is playing like the MVP he is, and the role players like Kyle Korver, JR Smith and Kevin Love have really stepped up and knocked down open shot after open shot. 

On paper, this is a complete mismatch.  The Cavs are by far the superior team talent-wise.  The 76ers were too last series, but the youth of Philadelphia really showed.  Boston won the last five minutes of the first half and the 4th quarter almost every single game. 

That won’t happen against the Cavaliers, who are a much more veteran squad and used to making it to the NBA Finals at this point.  Brad Stevens has gotten the Celtics this far, and while I have a ton of respect for him, not even he can conjure up a game plan that’s going to be able to stop Lebron and company. 

The Cavs are 10-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days. 

Plays against home underdogs (Boston) - revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more, when they’re off a close home win by 3 points or less are 34-8 (81%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Atlanta Braves are playing their best baseball on the road this season.  They are 14-7 (+10 units) on the highway and have won 10 of their last 11 away from home overall. 

The Marlins aren’t going to offer much resistance today.  They have lost four straight while getting outscored 11-40 in the process.  They are now just 13-24 on the season, hitting .223 and scoring 3.4 runs per game as a team. 

Brandon McCarthy should be able to shut down this weak Marlins’ lineup.  McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in four road starts this season.  He has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Daniel Straily is off to a rough start this season.  He has battled injury and has made just two starts, going 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.125 WHIP.  Straily is also 2-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta. 

The Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  Atlanta is 4-0 in McCarthy’s last four starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six vs. NL East foes.  Atlanta is 43-21 in the last 64 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Braves Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -107

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value today at basically even money against the lowly Miami Marlins.  The Braves are 13-7 (+9 units) on the road this season.  They are scoring 5.4 RPG this year compared to 3.4 RPG by the Marlins, so they clearly have the superior offense, especially with their top two prospects now in the lineup. 

Mike Foltynewicz is having a solid season at 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.351 WHIP in seven starts to go along with 43 K’s in 37 innings.  Folty has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in three starts. 

Caleb Smith is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is having a good season at 2-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in seven starts, but he’s no better than Folty.  And he certainly isn’t going to get much run support in this one. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven road games.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 6-1 in Folty’s last seven starts against the Marlins.  Bet the Braves Thursday. 

15* Diamondbacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -116 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have little margin for error now that they’ve dug themselves such a big hole in the NL West standings.  The team they are chasing is the Diamondbacks, and they need to win this series with them, so there will be some added motivation here Wednesday night. 

Patrick Corbin is having a great season, but once again he’s doing most of his damage at home, which has been the case in his young career.  Corbin is 22-25 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 63 starters and nine relief appearances on the road in his career.  He is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two road starts this season. Corbin is also 4-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 16 career starts against Los Angeles. 

Alex Wood will be highly motivated for his first victory this season.  He is 0-3 in spite of a 3.82 ERA and 0.925 WHIP with 38 K’s in 40 innings, so he has pitched well, but he’s been a tough-luck starter.  Wood enjoys facing the Diamondbacks, going 4-4 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. 

The Diamondbacks are 6-16 in Corbin’s last 22 road starts.  The Dodgers are 42-15 in their last 57 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 116-53 in its last 169 home games.  The Dodgers are 22-9 in Wood’s last 31 starts.  Los Angeles is 30-12 in its last 42 home meetings with Arizona.  The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Corbin’s last seven starts vs. Dodgers.  Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +1 

The Boston Celtics took their foot off the gas in Game 4 after taking a 3-0 lead in this series.  They won’t make that mistake playing at home in a close out contest in Game 5 tonight.  Look for a big effort from the Celtics here. 

The Celtics are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  That includes 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  They have one of the toughest atmospheres for an opponent in the league.  These young 76ers haven’t handled it well, and the young Bucks didn’t handle it well last series, either. 

The 76ers have just struggled offensively in these playoffs.  They have school 43% or worse in six consecutive games now.  They are lost on offense and are hoisting way too many contested 3-pointers.  They can’t be trusted to slow it down and execute with their season on the line on the road tonight. 

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season.  It is not only winning these games, but winning them by 6.5 points per game on average.  The Celtics are also a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging a blowout loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -106 

The Atlanta Braves have played their best baseball on the road this season.  They are 12-7 (+8.0 units) on the highway this year.  They took Game 1 of this series with the Rays, and I look for them to take Game 2 as well due to their advantage on the mound. 

Julio Teheran is one of the rare starters in this league that actually pitched better on the road than at home.  He’s certainly one of the few that isn’t ballpark-related.  Teheran is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in three road starts this season, and 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his last three starts.  He was great on the road last year and it has carried over this season. 

Ryan Yarbrough will be making just his second start of the season for the Rays.  He lasted just 4 2/3 innings while giving up 2 earned runs in a 4-10 home loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on April 15th.  He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as this line is basically even money. 

The Braves are 10-4 in Teheran’s last 14 starts.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 228.5 

The books have set the bar too high in Game 5 between the Pelicans and Warriors.  This total of 228.5 is 5 points higher than Game 1’s total of 223.  This despite the fact that the Warriors and Pelicans have combined for 224 or fewer points in three of the four games thus far. 

The last two games have been the lowest-scoring yet, and this goes along with my theory that points are harder to come by as a series progresses.  After combining for just 219 points in Game 3, they combined for only 210 in Game 4.  I expect a similar output here in Game 5 now that these teams are so familiar with one another. 

The UNDER is 8-3 in Pelicans last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Warriors’ last 17 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 20-10 UNDER off a road win this season.  New Orleans is 21-9 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Astros/A’s AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland +133 

The Oakland A’s should not be home underdog to the Houston Astros Tuesday night.  The A’s will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 16-2 loss to the Astros in Game 1.  That win for Houston ended a 1-5 stretch for them. 

Oakland clearly has the advantage on the mound today behind ace Sean Manaea.  The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.664 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.405 WHIP in three home starts.  Manaea is 2-3 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in nine career starts against Houston. 

Lance McCullers has been had one of the most drastic splits home and away in his career.  He is 14-5 with a 2.39 ERA at home in 32 starts compared to 9-12 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 33 road starts.  McCullers is also 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in five career starts against Oakland.  Only one of those starts was on the road, where he gave up 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings. 

Oakland is 9-2 (+10.3 units) at home when playing against a team with a winning % from 54% to 62% over the last two seasons.  The A’s are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Oakland is 11-4 in Manaea’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The A’s are 5-0 in Manaea’s last five starts when working on 4 days of rest.  Roll with the A’s Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +121 

The Atlanta Braves are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They have gotten off to a 19-14 start this season, and they have been really good since calling up their top two prospects.  They are hitting .273 and scoring 5.5 runs per game as a team. 

Speaking of underrated, starter Sean Newcomb is off to a great start this season for the Braves.  He is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four road starts.  He has 42 K’s in 34 2/3 innings this season. 

Blake Snell has put up great numbers for the Rays and is certainly having a good season.  But the difference in this game is that he’s not likely to get much run support.  The Rays are hitting .262 and scoring 4.4 runs per game as a team this year.  Their lineup is one of the worst in baseball. 

Atlanta is 11-3 (+10.6 units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season, including 7-1 (+7.7 units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this year.  The Braves are 5-0 in their last five road games.  Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 2-11 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 1-4 in Snell’s last five interleague starts.  Take the Braves Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -132 

The Houston Astros come in highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have gone just 1-5 in their last six games overall.  They will get back on track with a blowout win in Game 1 of this series against the Oakland A’s. 

The recent rough patch came against the hottest team in baseball in the Yankees, and on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of the best teams in the National League.  The A’s don’t have the firepower that either of those two teams possess. 

Dallas Keuchel isn’t off to the best start this season and will also be motivated to turn it around.  He is 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in seven starts.  Kuechel is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 17 career starts against Oakland. 

Brett Anderson will be making just his second start of the season for the A’s.  Anderson is 7-23 (-15.5 units) in his career as an underdog of +100 to +150.  The Astros are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.  Houston is 10-4 in Keuchel’s last 14 starts against Oakland.  Take the Astros Monday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5 

The Cavaliers may be up 3-0 in this series, but two games were toss-ups decided by a combined 3 points.  I don’t think there’s as much separation between these teams as this 3-0 lead would indicate.  And I think there’s value with the Raptors as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4 tonight because of it. 

You look at the adjustments in the line from Game 1 until now and it’s easy to see that there’s value with the Raptors.  They went from being 7-point home favorites in both Game 1 and Game 2 to 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4.  That’s a 12.5-point adjustment and simply too much. 

The Raptors know that not only their season and pride are on the line, but their future as well.  Dwane Casey, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry could all have their jobs on the line with the Raptors.  Another playoff failure against the Cavaliers and they might just blow it all up.  So they won’t be going down without a fight in Game 4. 

Toronto is 12-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  Cleveland is 11-30 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Monday. 

20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +5.5 

The Utah Jazz will respond in a big way after getting embarrassed at home by the Houston Rockets 92-113 in Game 3.  They shot just 41.7% from the field and it was over by halftime.  They know their home fans deserve a better effort than that. 

The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back in the lineup from a hamstring injury.  He has been upgraded to questionable and will likely be a game-time decision after missing the first three games in this series.  They proved they could win without him with their 116-108 road win in Game 2 as 10.5-point underdogs, but of course they’d rather have him back. 

Plays against road favorites (Houston) after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a top team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss by more than 10 points.  The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Mike D’Antoni is 11-23 ATS after leading their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of Houston.  Bet the Jazz Sunday. 

15* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -104 

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in and are in jeopardy of getting swept by the rival Cardinals.  They blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and a 6-4 lead in the 9th inning, which only adds to their motivation. 

The Cubs should get back on the winning track Sunday behind Jon Lester.  The left-hander has gone 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts this season.  Lester owns the Cardinals, going 8-5 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 18 career starts against them. 

Michael Wacha has been decent this year at 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in six starts.  But the Cubs have owned him.  Wacha is 4-8 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 15 career starts against Chicago. 

The Cubs are 19-5 in their last 24 road games off a loss by two runs or less.  Chicago is 40-19 in Lester’s last 59 starts overall.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Cardinals are 1-7 in Wacha’s last eight starts during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Cubs Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A’s -132 

The Oakland A’s are a much better team than they get credit for.  They are off to a 16-16 start this season, and they clearly have the advantage on the mound tonight over the reeling Baltimore Orioles.  The Orioles are just 8-24 this season and stuck in free-fall mode right now. 

Trevor Cahill gets the ball tonight for the A’s.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three starts this season with 19 K’s in 18 innings.  Cahill is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore. 

Kevin Gausman is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in six starts this season for Baltimore.  Gausman has gone 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland. 

Baltimore is 4-24 in road games against a starting pitched that walks 1.75 or fewer batters per start over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 1-11 in their last 12 Saturday games.  Baltimore is 12-43 in its last 55 games overall.  The Orioles are 16-33 in Gausman’s last 49 road starts.  The A’s are 6-1 in their last seven home games.  Take the A’s Saturday.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:

Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner.  He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories.  He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017.  His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992.  He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.

Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.  If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.

Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)

Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start.  I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday.  After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby.  He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race.  He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.

Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse.  Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby.  Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree.  Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby.  Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.

Show:  No. 7 Justify (3/1)

History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win.  No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882.  That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.

But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths.  He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.

Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw.  He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to.  Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn.  He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.

Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box

Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box

Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter.  Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.

20* Raptors/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on Toronto +5 

The Toronto Raptors aren’t done yet.  Most have written them off after losing the first two games of this series at home.  But I strongly believe they still have some fight left in them for Game 3 to try and redeem themselves. 

They let the Cavs off the hook in Game 1 by going 0-for-12 down the stretch.  They never trailed one time in regulation and then lost in overtime.  Then Kevin Love had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, which came out of nowhere because he had been playing terrible.  The Cavs shot 59.5% as a team in Game 2, which isn’t going to happen again. 

Look for the Raptors to show some pride here in Game 3.  They are a much better team than they’ve shown up to this point, and I still think they are better than the Cavs.  They have only forced eight turnovers this entire series, and that’s unacceptable.  Their defensive effort will be the best it has been in any game this series in Game 3 to try and make up for it. 

Toronto is 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  Cleveland is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 home games overall.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:

Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner.  He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories.  He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017.  His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992.  He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.

Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.  If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.

Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)

Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start.  I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday.  After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby.  He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race.  He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.

Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse.  Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby.  Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree.  Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby.  Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.

Show:  No. 7 Justify (3/1)

History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win.  No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882.  That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.

But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths.  He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.

Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw.  He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to.  Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn.  He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.

Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box

Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box

Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter.  Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.

20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

After a terrible performance in Game 2 with an upset loss to the Jazz as 10.5-point home favorites, I fully expect the Houston Rockets to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.  Look for them to bury the Jazz tonight. 

The Rockets shot 40% from the field and 27% from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s not going to happen again.  Meanwhile, the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and 46.9% (15-of-32) from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s also unlikely to happen again. 

It was a rare win for the Jazz in this series.  The Rockets are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six meetings with the Jazz this season.  All five wins came by 11 points or more as well. 

Houston is 14-3 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Rockets Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Rangers OVER 9 

The Rangers and Red Sox combined for 16 runs yesterday in an 11-5 home victory for Texas.  I fully expect another slugfest tonight with Rick Porcello and Bartolo Colon getting lit up by two hot lineups.  The Red Sox are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, while the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in five of their last seven games overall. 

Porcello is off to a solid start this season, but now he’s up against a lineup that has given him fits throughout his career.  Indeed, Porcello is 6-4 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas. 

Bartolo Colon is somehow still in the big leagues.  He has gotten by this season through his first four starts, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets lit up.  And I predict that will be tonight by this potent Boston lineup. 

Boston is 8-0 OVER when revenging a blowout road loss vs. opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Colon is 10-2 OVER when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons.  Texas is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 games after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -138 

The Boston Red Sox are off to one of their best starts in franchise history at 22-8.  They are blistering the ball offensively with 5.7 runs per game.  Now they’ll be up against the 12-20 Texas Rangers, who are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season. 

David Price is off to a solid start this season at 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in six starts, including 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three road starts.  Price has allowed just 3 earned runs in 14 innings while striking out 19 in his last two starts against the Rangers. 

Mike Minor is 2-1 with a 4.33 ERA in five starts this season for the Rangers.  But he’s 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts.  He was rocked by both Toronto and Houston in recent starts, and now he’s up against arguably the best lineup he’s faced yet in Boston. 

The Rangers’ bullpen is gassed as well.  Texas is 3-16 off a two-game stretch where the bullpen threw 9 innings or more over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Texas is 3-13 in its last 16 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 6-20 in their last 26 home games.  Take the Red Sox Thursday. 

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -6.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers became just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game while not leading once during regulation.  It was a complete fluke.  The Raptors feel they let them off the hook, and they’ll come back highly motivated in Game 2 to square this series. 

I think the Cavaliers feel they’re just happy for a split in Toronto and won’t be giving the kind of effort they did in Game 1.  They weren’t as fatigued as I expected them to be, but they will start to feel it in the coming games after having to go 7 games to defeat the Pacers. 

It was a rare home loss for the Raptors, who are 37-8 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game.  Cleveland is just 6-16 ATS off a road win this season.  The Cavs are also 15-29 ATS after playing a road game this year. 

Plays on any team (Toronto) - revenging a loss as a favorite against opponent that’s off a road win by 3 points or less are 52-24 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday. 

20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +11 

The Utah Jazz know that if they are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to have to steal one in Houston.  The Rockets have owned them this season, and I think they say enough is enough this game. 

They lost by 14 in Game 1, but there’s reason to believe they can improve on that significantly.  The Jazz shot just 31.8% from 3-point range and 59.1% from the free throw line while committing 18 turnovers.  They should be able to improve on all three of those numbers, which will help them stay within 11 here. 

The Rockets shot lights out in Game 1 from 3-point range.  They made 17-of-32 (53.1%) of their attempts, which was the difference.  They also shot 79.2% from the free throw line.  It’s hard to envision the Rockets shooting that well from distance again in Game 2. 

Mike D’Antoni is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets are only winning by 2.0 points per game on average this spot.  Houston is 1-9 ATS in home games off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet the Jazz in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110) 

The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday.  They have lost four straight coming in with their last win coming behind Aaron Nola in a 7-3 victory over Atlanta.  Well, their ace gets the ball again tonight. 

Nola has been lights out since the second half of last season.  Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in six starts this season.  He gave up just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11 in his last start against Miami, an 8-1 Phillies’ victory. 

Jose Urena is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in six starts this season.  The Marlins have gone 0-6 in those six starts.  Urena is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia. 

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 4-0 in its last four games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Marlins are 0-8 in Urena’s last eight starts.  Miami is 1-10 in Urena’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +11 

The New Orleans Pelicans got embarrassed in Game 1 in a 101-123 loss at Golden State.  The Warriors shot 48.4% for the game and 40.7% from the 3-point line, while the Pelicans shot just 43.7% for the game and 32% from 3-point range. 

Look for the Pelicans to come back highly motivated for a win in Game 2.  They know they are going to have to steal one in Golden State if they want to make this a series.  And this would be the time to do it with Stephen Curry returning for the Warriors.  They are getting too much respect for his return, but he won’t be sharp as he hasn’t played since late March. 

The Pelicans are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  It was probably a good thing that they took a humbling defeat in Game 1 to refocus, because they were probably getting overconfident after their 9-game winning streak and sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. 

The Warriors are 8-25 in their last 33 games after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent.  The Warriors shot 32 while the Pelicans shot just 11 in Game 1.  There won’t be that big of a gap in Game 2.  Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Pelicans in Game 2 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110) 

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this series with the Chicago White Sox highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept in a 3-game set in Pittsburgh over the weekend.  Now they get to host the 8-18 Chicago White Sox to get back on track. 

Michael Wacha has pitched well this season, going 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three home starts.  Wacha won his only career start against the White Sox back in 2015. 

James Shields somehow manages to keep a spot in Chicago’s rotation despite being awful.  Shields is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in five starts this season.  He is also 0-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.383 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis. 

The White Sox are 25-54 in their last 79 road games.  Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 interleague road games.  The White Sox are 0-5 in Shields’ last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wacha’s last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* Cavs/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5 

Cleveland needed a super-human performance from Lebron James just to get by the Indiana Pacers in seven games.  He averaged over 45 points per game in their four wins, yet they won those games by just 3, 4, 3 and 4 points.  It’s a sign of things to come for the Cavaliers in this series. 

Toronto is the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, and that showed in the regular season.  They go 10-plus deep and have been much better this season with a change in philosophy.  They are looking to push the tempo more and shoot more 3-pointers.  They average 111.5 points per game this season. 

The Raptors are 37-7 at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game on their home floor.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight in Toronto.  The Cavs are tired as they just had to play on Sunday and only get one day to get ready for Toronto.  Lebron admitted he was extremely tired in his press conference after the game Sunday.  The Raptors, who have had three days off in between games, will be the fresher, more motivated team in Game 1. 

Plays against underdogs (Cleveland) - as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Tuesday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are rested and ready to go following an impressive 4-1 win over Miami in the opening round.  They won three of the four games by double-digits.  They haven’t played since April 24th and will be the fresher team here. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics, who were pushed to the brink of elimination.  They needed to win Game 7 against the Bucks just to advance.  And they played Game 7 on Saturday, so they have only had one day to get rested and ready for the 76ers. 

That’s not enough given the current state of the Celtics.  Injuries have taken their toll all season, and another one popped up in Game 7.  Jaylen Brown suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to leave the game.  Now Brown is doubtful for Game 1 Monday. 

The 76ers are 27-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -107 

The Washington Nationals are being undervalued heading into Game 1 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have lost six of their last eight overall.  Conversely, the Pirates are being overvalued due to entering this series on a five-game winning streak.  Now we’re getting the Nationals at basically even money at home tonight. 

And Washington has the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Tanner Roark has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the last three seasons.  He is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five starts this year. 

Jameson Taillon is getting too much respect from the books right now.  He is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in two road starts.  Taillon is 0-2 with a 20.30 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. 

Pittsburgh is 2-12 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 2-11 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three years.  The Nationals are 10-2 in their last 12 Monday games.  Washington is 4-0 in Roark’s last four starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take the Nationals Monday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -116 

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a win here Sunday.  They have lost six of their last seven coming in, including the first two games of this series by exactly one run each to the Diamondbacks.  They’ll be motivated for revenge and to avoid the dreaded sweep at home here. 

Robbie Ray has been vulnerable this season for the Diamondbacks.  He is 2-0 in spite of a 5.13 ERA and 1.557 WHIP.  Ray has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Gio Gonzalez has been great thus far, going 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA in two home starts.  Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven career starts against Arizona. 

The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 after losing the first two games of a series.  Washington is 17-7 in Gonzalez’s last 24 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Nationals Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Colorado Rockies -107 

We are once again getting the Colorado Rockies at basically even money against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins, who are 8-18 this season and getting outscored 3.3 to 5.3 on average.  We’ll take advantage again Sunday. 

Chad Bettis has been superb up to this point.  He has gone 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts, including 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in three road starts. 

Caleb Smith is still in search of his first win for the Marlins.  He is 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in five starts this season. 

The Rockies are 13-3 in Bettis’ last 16 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Colorado is 8-1 in Bettis’ last nine Sunday starts.  The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.  Miami is 0-4 in Smith’s last four starts.  Take the Rockies Sunday. 

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 200 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six games in this series thus far.  The lone exception was Game 6 as Indiana shot lights out and they combined for 208 points.  The Pacers shot 56.3% from the field and 15-of-30 from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again. 

The other five games saw 178, 197, 182, 204 and 193 combined points.  Now we have a 200-point total for Game 7 with everything on the line.  Defensive intensity will be at an all-time high, and this game will slow down to a snail’s pace.  That’s why I really like the UNDER in this Game 7 today. 

Indiana is 12-1 UNDER after scoring 120 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pacers last 52 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavs last four home games.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5 

As this series has progressed and these teams have gotten more familiar with one another, points have been harder and harder to come by.  The tempo has also slowed down dramatically.  That won’t change in this decisive Game 7 with everything on the line. 

Boston beat Milwaukee 92-87 for 179 combined points in Game 5.  Milwaukee returned the favor with a 97-86 home victory in Game 6 and only 183 combined points.  Now we have a total set of 195.5 for Game 7, which is much higher than those two results.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this game tonight. 

I think it’s no coincidence that these last two games have been so low scoring with the return of Marcus Smart from injury.  He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he also tends to hold the ball on offense.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Saturday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5 

As a series goes on and teams become more familiar with one another, points become harder to come by. I expect that to be the case in this all-important Game 6 here tonight.  Both teams will struggle to even reach 100 points in this one with what’s at stake. 

The UNDER is now 6-3 in the nine meetings between the Thunder and Jazz this season.  They have averaged just 200.1 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  So we’re getting at least 7 points of value with the UNDER based on their head-to-head season averages. 

And it’s worth noting that in Game 5 Rudy Gobert got in foul trouble and missed most of the second half.  The Thunder were stuck on 46 points with 8:00 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but finished with a fully and a 107-99 win.  That was almost all due to Gobert’s absence.  Look for him to be smarter about staying out of foul trouble and to play his normal minutes in this one, which will certainly help the UNDER since he’s arguably the most important defender in the league. 

Oklahoma City is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two years.  The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -122 

Almost any time I can fade the Miami Marlins at this kind of price I’m going to take advantage.  The Colorado Rockies are by far the superior team here and should be more than a -122 favorite over the 7-17 Marlins, who are arguably the worst team in baseball. 

Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty well for the Rockies this season, going 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts.  Anderson has owned the Marlins, going 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Jose Urena is off to a rough start this year for the Marlins.  He is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in five starts, and the Marlins are 0-5 in those games.  Urena is 1-1 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado. 

The Rockies are 7-2 in their last nine road games.  The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight home games.  Miami is 0-7 in Urena’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Urena is 1-10 (-10.7 units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest in his career.  Roll with the Rockies Friday. 

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214.5 

After going over the total in each of the first three games in this series, the Raptors and Wizards have gone under the total in the last two.  This goes right along with my theory that the more familiar teams become with one another, the harder it is to score points. 

That has been the case in Games 4 and 5 of this series.  They combined for 204 points in Game 4 and 206 points in Game 5.  Now they have the total set at 214.5 for Game 6, which is still higher than the 213.5-point total they had for Games 1 and 2.  So I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in Game 6 tonight. 

Toronto is 15-5 UNDER in April road games over the last three seasons.  Washington is 15-7 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4 

I think the fact that the Celtics have gone 4-1 ATS thus far in this series has them overvalued.  But they barely covered in three of the four games where they were victorious against the spread.  I think the value is now with the Bucks at home as only 4-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Bucks are in a must-win situation here trying to force a Game 7.  It’s safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line tonight.  They have played very well in their two home games in this series.  They won Game 3 116-92 and then led 51-35 at halftime of Game 4 before the Celtics came out of nowhere to score 67 points in the second half.  That’s unlikely to happen again. 

It’s also unlikely that the Bucks are going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 5.  They shot just 36.8% in that contest, yet still only lost 87-92 as 4.5-point underdogs.  They had shot 59.7%, 57% and 52.1% in their three previous games and should get back to torching this undersized Celtics’ defense. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the five games thus far.  That trend continues here as Milwaukee forces a Game 7.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves -130

The Atlanta Braves don’t want the embarrassment of handing the Reds their first series victory of the season.  The Reds won the first two games of this series, but the Braves won yesterday and have a chance to split here.  They should get a win against 5-19 Cincinnati here in Game 4 this afternoon. 

Sean Newcomb has been solid this season at 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 27 K’s in 21 2/3 innings.  He has been his best on the road with a 1.59 ERA in two starts with 16 K’s in 11 1/3 innings.  Newcomb pitched 5 shutout innings in an 8-1 home victory over the Reds in his lone career start against them last season. 

Homer Bailey is still in search of his first victory this season, going 0-3 with a 3.68 ERA.  The Reds have gone 0-5 in his five starts.  Bailey is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta. 

The Reds are 3-14 in their last 17 home games.  Cincinnati is 19-47 in its last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 2-10 in Bailey’s last 12 home starts.  Cincinnati is 2-12 in Bailey’s last 14 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Braves Thursday. 

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

With their season on the line tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder should respond in a big way at home in Game 5.  Look for them to easily cover this generous 3.5-point spread as they are now clearly undervalued after losing the last three games to the Jazz. 

The Thunder are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home meetings with the Jazz.  They have won these games by an average of 13.1 points per game.  This is certainly a trend I want to get behind tonight given the circumstances. 

The home team is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  The Jazz are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Oklahoma City.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday. 

15* Wizards/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto -7 

After losing both games in Washington, the Toronto Raptors will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 tonight at home.  They want to prove their naysayers wrong that this is a different team and one ready to make the NBA Finals. 

The Raptors are 36-7 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a 102-95 Toronto win in Washington in their final regular season meeting this year. 

Toronto is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Raptors are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Raptors in Game 5 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves +100

After losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Cincinnati Reds, the Atlanta Braves will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight.  The Reds are just 5-18 this season, and those were their first two consecutive wins all season. 

Matt Wisler was great in his first and only start this season.  He gave up just one earned run and two base runners in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters in a 12-4 victory over the Mets.  He now holds a 1.29 ERA and 0.286 WHIP in his lone start. 

Brandon Finnegan has been knocked around in his two starts for Cincinnati.  He has gone 0-2 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.592 WHIP, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 7 1/3 innings. 

The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss.  Atlanta is 6-0 in its last six during Game 3 of a series.  The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 home games.  Cincinnati is 5-22 in its last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Braves Wednesday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +10.5 

The Miami Heat let a golden opportunity slip by in Game 4 as they were trying to tie this series.  They shot just 13-of-25 (52%) from the free throw line, which was the difference in their 102-106 loss.  They know they can play with this team, and they will be laying it all on the line in Game 5 to keep their season alive. 

Miami is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Miami is 11-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Heat are 22-7 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two years. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Miami) - poor foul drawing team attempting 21 or fewer free throws per game, when playing on Tuesday nights are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1996.  Miami is 19-9-2 ATS in its last 30 road games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -117 

The Cincinnati Reds picked up a rare win over the Braves yesterday.  Still, the Reds are just 4-18 on the season, and don’t expect them to be winning two games in a row for the first time in 2018 tonight. 

Brandon McCarthy has pitched great when healthy over the last few seasons.  He is healthy this season and is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in four starts this year.  Look for McCarthy to shut down this weak Reds lineup that is hitting just .224 and scoring 3.2 runs per game this season. 

Tyler Mahle has been one of the many disappointing starters for Cincinnati this year.  He is 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP through four starts.  He’ll be up against an Atlanta lineup that is hitting .263 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season. 

Atlanta is 9-1 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 2-13 in its last 15 games overall.  The Reds are 1-12 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Take the Braves Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +6 

I’ve rode Minnesota in every game this series and I’m going to continue to do so tonight.  I came into the playoffs believing that the Timberwolves were the most underrated 8th seed of all-time, and the Rockets were overrated for what they did in the regular season.  And so far that has panned out. 

The Timberwolves have gone toe-to-toe with the Rockets, only getting outscored by 7 points total in their first three games despite playing two of the first three in Houston.  This is simply a different team with a healthy Jimmy Butler, and an 8th seed that no No. 1 seed would ever want to have to face. 

The Timberwolves responded in a big way with a 121-105 victory in Game 3.  They have rabid home fans who have been starving for a playoff game for more than a decade.  It will be another raucous atmosphere tonight in Minneapolis as the Timberwolves likely square this series 2-2, though we’ll take the 6 points for some added insurance. 

The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Atlanta Braves are one of the more underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are among the National League leaders in runs scored as they average 5.5 per game.  Cincinnati is right there with Miami and the Chicago White Sox as the worst teams in baseball.  The Reds are 3-18 this season, hitting just .220 as a team and scoring 2.9 runs per game. 

The Braves have a massive advantage on the mound tonight and should be favored by more as a result.  Mike Foltynewicz is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in four starts with 26 K’s in 21 1/3 innings.  Folty is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Sal Romano is one of the many terrible starters in Cincinnati’s rotation.  He has gone 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has struck out just 11 batters in 20 1/3 innings.  He is no match for Folty tonight. 

The Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 1-5 in Romano’s last six starts.  The Red are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall.  Take the Braves Monday. 

20* Cavs/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After choking away a huge lead in the 2nd half of Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come back with a chip on their shoulder in Game 4.  This is a must-win game for them and I expect them to respond as so. 

I trust Lebron James in this situation more than any other player in the NBA.  Of course, he will have to get some help from his teammates, which has been lacking thus far in the series.  Look for the role players to step up and follow his lead. 

Indiana is a young team that’s not ready for the spotlight just yet.  They have answered the bell in the first three games, but now the pressure intensifies.  I don’t trust them in this situation. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Indiana) - off a close win by 3 points or less against opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 45-21 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +126 

I love the situation here for the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.  They have lost each of the first three games of this series to the Phillies and will be highly motivated to avoid the dreaded four-game sweep with a win. 

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they send Trevor Williams to the mound, and he has been lights out this season.  Williams is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four starts this year.  He has faced the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts, so it’s not like he is doing it against weak lineups. 

Nick Pivetta’s numbers have been good this year, but he is doing it against weak competition.  His four starts have come against the Braves (twice), Marlins and Reds. 

Pittsburgh is 8-1 (+8.2 units) against the money line in day games this season.  The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six Sunday games.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Williams’ last five starts.  Roll with the Pirates Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Bucks ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -4.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly the more talented team right now due to all of the injuries for Boston.  That talent shined through in Game 3, and it will once again in Game 4 today. 

The Celtics simply wanted it more in the first two games in this series.  It also helped that they shot nearly 60% in Game 2.  But as this series goes on, I think their deficiencies will start to show as there is more than a crack or two in their foundation. 

I like the resiliency the Bucks showed in Game 3 with their 116-92 blowout victory.  They will come out like gangbusters once again in Game 4 with their backs still against the wall here down in this series.  And I think this 4.5-point spread is very generous given that they are the better team right now and playing at home. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207 

This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder.  I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3.  As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season.  Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points.  But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points.  That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons. 

Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season.  The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 

Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game.  Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight. 

Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs.  But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102.  They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range.  It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight. 

I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough.  The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in.  Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3. 

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +141 

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as home underdogs to the New York Mets today.  They are sending ace Julio Teheran to the mound tonight and should not be this big of dogs. 

Teheran has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts.  Teheran loves facing the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

Jacob DeGrom is a great starter, but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He has allowed 7 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has also given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta. 

New York is 14-42 vs. teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -120 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Diego Padres tonight.  They are getting overlooked here because Matt Koch will be making his just third major league start. 

Koch gave up just one run and five hits in six innings against the Padres in one of those two previous starts.  He pitched two scoreless innings of relief against the Cardinals on April 7th.  He is ready as he was one of the last starters optioned to Triple-A Reno out of spring training. 

Tyson Ross is getting way too much respect from the books in this one.  He missed most of the last two seasons with arm issues.  Ross hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2015.  This is the best lineup he will have faced other than Houston, which he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings against. 

The Padres are 2-7 in Ross’ last nine starts.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six home games.  Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 home meetings with San Diego.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* Raptors/Wizards ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Washington -1.5 

The Toronto Raptors shot lights out in their first two games at home against the Wizards in this series.  They shot 53.2% in Game 1 and 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range.  In Game 2, they shot 51.7% and 13-of-35 (37.1%) from 3-point range. 

The law of averages says that they won’t shoot that well against in Game 3.  Look for a big effort from the Wizards at home here Friday night to try and get back in this series.  They have shot it pretty well these first two games with 106 points in Game 1 and 119 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough.  They will be much better defensively at home in Game 3. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 75-39 (65.8%) ATS over the last five years.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

15* Blazers/Pelicans NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Portland +4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are extremely disappointed to be down 0-2 in this series.  They had their chances in Game 1 and Game 2, trailing by exactly 2 points in the closing seconds both games.  They shot just 37.8% in Game 1 and 45.1% in Game 2. 

I expect the Blazers to come out with a win-or-die attitude in Game 3 tonight.  They have been bashed in the media leading up to this game, especially Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  These guys already play with a chip on their shoulder and will only be extra motivated to make amends tonight. 

The Pelicans will likely relax now that they’ve stolen two games in Portland.  Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis have both been receiving huge praise in the media, as have Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic.  Deservedly so, but that’s the type of exposure that will make players relax. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series recently.  The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are only 24-17 at home this year compared to 26-17 on the road.  Plays against home favorites (New Orleans) after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

The 76ers and Heat shot lights out in Game 1 and combined for 233 points.  They set expectations for themselves that they could not live up to moving forward.  They still combined for 216 points in Game 2, but that went UNDER the 217-point total.  And now I expect an even lower-scoring Game 3 with an identical 217-point total. 

As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  That favors defense.  I also like the fact that this series is moving to Miami.  The Heat want to slow it down, while the 76ers want to play at a fast pace.  Well, the home team is the one that usually controls the pace, so expect this to be the slowest tempo of any game thus far. 

Five of the last six meetings between Miami and Philadelphia have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  Miami is 11-2 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven conference quarterfinals games.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Cardinals/Cubs MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -107 

After losing the first and only game in this series to the rival Cardinals 5-3, the Chicago Cubs should come back motivated for a victory here in their final game with St. Louis after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to weather. 

Jon Lester will be up against a team that he has simply owned.  Lester is 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Cardinals. 

Luke Weaver is getting too much respect from the books due to his solid start this season.  But Weaver is up against a team he has struggled mightily against.  Weaver is 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. 

Lester is 32-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 37-17 in Lester’s last 54 home starts.  Chicago is 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts when working on 7 or more days’ rest.  The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals.  Chicago is 4-0 in Lester’s last four home starts vs. St. Louis.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday. 

20* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves gave the Houston Rockets all they wanted in Game 1.  They only lost 101-104 despite an awful shooting night in which they shot just 43.7% from the field compared to 47% for the Rockets. 

Playing playoff basketball down the stretch really helped the Timberwolves.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get in the playoffs, while the Rockets were coasting for weeks.  And having Jimmy Butler healthy down the stretch made all the difference for this team as well. 

They are now 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  Butler meant everything for this team during the regular season.  They went 39-23 with him in the lineup, and just 8-12 in the 20 games without him.  They are certainly good enough to hang with Houston at full strength, which was evident in Game 1. 

Plays against home favorites (Houston) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996.   

Minnesota is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Houston is 9-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Houston.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -105 

After losing in extra innings to the Phillies yesterday, the Atlanta Braves will be out for revenge tonight.  They should get that revenge and take this series behind starter Brandon McCarthy. 

McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts this season.  He has been good when healthy over the last few years, but staying healthy has been the issue.  McCarthy is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia. 

Vincent Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in three starts this season for the Phillies.  His worst start came against Atlanta on March 31st when he allowed 7 runs, 4 earned, and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of a 2-15 loss.  Velasquez has never beaten the Braves, going 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Phillies are 20-54 in their last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 2-9 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts when working on four days of rest.  The Braves are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.  Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6.5 

After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion 97-95, I look for the Portland Trail Blazers to get a big win and cover in Game 2 to get right back in this series.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2, and the Pelicans are just happy to steal one game in Portland. 

The Blazers couldn’t have shot any worse in Game 1, yet they still about won the game.  They shot just 37-of-98 (37.8%) from the field and 12-of-39 (30.8%) from 3-point range.  I suspect the game plan will be to try and get the ball inside more to Jusuf Nurkic and to attack the rim after settling for too many jumpers in Game 1. 

The Pelicans actually shot the ball well, making 47.7% from the field.  They won’t top that number, and as long as the Blazers at least match them from a percentage standpoint, they should easily cover this spread in Game 2. 

Portland is 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, especially in the second half of the season this year.  With their season ultimately on the line tonight, they’ll come through with a big effort.  Take the Blazers Tuesday. 

20* Wizards/Raptors NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215 

The Wizards and Raptors combined for 220 points in Game 1.  But both teams shot lights out to get there, especially the Raptors.  I look for a much lower scoring Game 2 and for this contest to stay UNDER the 215-point total. 

The Raptors shot 53.2% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range with 16 made 3-pointers, and 80% from the line in Game 1.  The Wizards shot a solid 47.7% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range and 88.9% from the free throw line.  At the very least, the Raptors won’t shoot as well in Game 2, and the Wizards will be hard-pressed to match their numbers. 

Eight of the previous 11 meetings in this series saw 203 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto with an average combined score of just 199.2 points per game. I think we get back to seeing a more familiar combined score between these teams, one much lower than this 215-point total.  There is clearly some value with the UNDER after a high-scoring Game 1. 

Washington is 11-3 UNDER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Wizards last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140) 

I backed the Yankees on the Run Line yesterday in a 12-1 victory over the Miami Marlins.  I’m going to hop back on board today with the same pick.  Instead of taking the Yankees at roughly -300 on the money line, we’ll back them at -140 on the Run Line at a much more favorable price. 

The Marlins are the worst team in baseball in my opinion.  They are just 4-12 this season with 11 of those 12 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  Their lineup is atrocious, and their rotation is awful as well.  Jarlin Garcia stands little chance of being successful against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

Masahiro Tanaka should be able to shut down the Marlins.  This is by far his easiest start of the year after facing the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in his first three starts.  He has posted a 1.039 WHIP with 18 K’s in 17 1/3 innings thus far.  Tanaka gave up just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone career start against Miami for a 2.57 ERA. 

The Marlins are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-25 in its last 33 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven interleague games.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 40-17 in Tanaka’s last 57 home starts.  New York is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Miami.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +10 

Greg Popovich called out his players after an ugly 92-113 loss to Golden State in Game 1.  His exact words were that they looked like a ‘deer in headlights’.  Look for his players to respond with a much better effort in Game 2 tonight. 

It was a rare performance for the Spurs in which they lost most of the 50-50 balls and were out rebounded 57-40.  They also caught the Warriors on a rare good shooting night in which they shot 54.3%, while the Spurs couldn’t make anything and shot just 40.0%.  Look for those percentages to be much closer to even in Game 2 with the Spurs covering this 10-point spread. 

Plays on road underdogs (San Antonio) - after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent after having covered two of their last three against the spread are 177-113 (61%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season this season.  San Antonio is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Spurs in Game 2 Monday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat actually held a 60-56 lead over Philadelphia at halftime in Game 1.  That’s why it’s so hard to believe they lost by 27.  But the 76ers couldn’t miss in the second half and rode that momentum to a blowout victory. 

This is one of my favorite situations in the playoffs.  I like backing the team coming off the blowout loss because they will be the more motivated team.  And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot 18-of-28 (64.3%) from 3-point range again. 

That was a rare blowout victory for the 76ers in this series, too.  It was only the second time in the last 16 meetings that the 76ers have beaten the Heat by more than 7 points.  They split the season series 2-2 with the Heat’s two losses coming by 2 and 6 points. 

Miami is 26-10-2 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

Instead of laying -300 or more to back the Yankees on the Money Line tonight, we’ll gladly lay just -125 with them on the Run Line in hopes that they win this game by two runs or more.  I think that shouldn’t be a problem against what I believe is the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins are just 4-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by two runs or more.  The Yankees are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off due to weather.  Giancarlo Stanton will be excited to face his former team for the first time as well. 

Luis Severino is one of the better starters in baseball.  He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  He struck out 230 batters in 193 1/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through three starts this season as well. 

Caleb Smith has not fared well in limited action in the big leagues in his brief two-year career to this point. He is 0-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.625 WHIP while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings.  He is in line to get rocked against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

The Marlins are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-24 in its last 32 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six interleague games.  New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 home starts.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11.5 

The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the regular season.  That makes them overvalued heading into the playoffs.  Expectations are high, and I look for them to fall short of expectations in Game 1 considering they are whopping 11.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

I think the fact that the Rockets took their foot off the gas down the stretch after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the West will work against them early in the playoffs.  They went 1-6 ATS over their final seven games and haven’t been into it mentally.  They also have some key injuries right now with Luc Mbah a Moute and Ryan Anderson out for Game 1, and Eric Gordon questionable. 

The Timberwolves have been playing playoff basketball down the stretch.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get into the playoffs, and they did so in overtime against the Nuggets, so they will be oozing with confidence and feeling like they are playing with house’s money.  They also got a healthy Jimmy Butler back for the last few games of the regular season, and this team has been much better with Butler in the lineup as he has played at a near-MVP level when healthy this year. 

I also think the fact that the Rockets went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Timberwolves this season has them overvalued, and it also has the Timberwolves motivated for revenge.  Having Butler healthy and able to guard James Harden will be huge in this series.  Butler is one of the top defenders in the league when focused, and he’ll certainly be focused in the playoffs. 

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  He only played in 62 games this season.  The Timberwolves went 8-12 without him, and 39-23 with him.  That’s the kind of difference he makes for this team.  It’s safe to say Minnesota is one dangerous 8th seed, and maybe the best 8th seed I can ever remember.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.