Winning Sports Picks

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -113

The San Diego Padres are absolutely rolling right now, and I'm going to continue riding this gravy train tonight.  The Padres are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall, while the Rockies have lost five straight games coming in.

San Diego has a huge edge on the mound in this one behind ace James Shields.  The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP through three starts this season.  Shields faced Colorado twice in 2014, giving up just 3 earned runs over 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA while winning both outings.

Kyle Kendrick has absolutely been lit up in the early going for Colorado.  He is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.860 WHIP, giving up 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 homers in 16 2/3 innings.  Kendrick sports a 4.19 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego, and he's never face a Padres' lineup that is as dangerous as this one in 2015.

Shields is 11-1 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 26-10 in their last 36 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Rockies are 21-56 in their last 77 games following a loss.  The Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Padres Wednesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -129

The Cincinnati Reds have seemed to really respond to manager Bryan Price's media-directed tirade.  They have responded by winning their last two games and outscoring the Brewers 22-11 in the process.  I look for them to grab another win today due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

The Brewers have the majors' worst record right now at 2-12.  They are scoring just 2.9 runs per game, and it's not going to get any better for them in the near future.  They are without their two best hitters in Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez, and starting second-baseman Scooter Gennett is out as well.

Johnny Cueto is right up there in the NL Cy Young race every year, and 2015 looks to be no exception.  Cueto has posted a 2.14 ERA and 0.810 WHIP through three starts this season while striking out 24 over 21 innings.  Cueto is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 16 career starts against Milwaukee.  He is 4-0 in his last four starts against the Brewers while allowing just 6 earned runs over 27 innings for a 2.00 ERA.

The Reds are 44-18 in their last 62 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cincinnati is 48-18 in Cueto's last 66 starts as a favorite.  The Reds are 10-1 in Cueto's last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Brewers are 14-37 in their last 51 overall.  Milwaukee is 1-8 in its last 9 home games.  The Brewers are 1-6 in Jimmy Nelson's last 7 starts.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in Nelson's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Reds Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs.  I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.  They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games.  This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference.  Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries.

Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Astros/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +102

After losing Game 1 of this series and five of their last seven games overall, I look for the Seattle Mariners to come back with an inspired effort tonight.  They are showing excellent value here as home underdogs due to their recent struggles.

Another reason they are a dog here is because of the disastrous start by one of the top prospects in the game in Taijuan Walker.  This guy is going to be a dominant big league starter before long, but he was roughed up in back-to-back road starts at the Dodgers and A's.

But Walker certainly has not struggled against the Astros in his brief career.  Indeed, he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Houston.  He won't be suffering his first loss against them today, either.

Houston is 3-21 (-17.4 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons.  The Astros are 93-201 in their last 294 road games.  The Mariners are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Mariners Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Los Angeles Angels at this kind of price at home.  The reason is because they have lost three straight coming in, but I look at that as a good thing because they will dig even deeper than normal to get a win tonight.

Hector Santiago isn't getting near the respect he deserves.  Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just four earned runs and 13 base runners over 12 1/3 innings.

What really stands out to me is just how Santiago has dominated Oakland in the recent past.  Indeed, he is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.91 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five career starts against the A's.  He allowed only two earned runs over 23 1/3 innings in four starts against them in 2014.

Oakland is 6-20 in its last 26 games as an underdog.  The A's are 6-20 in their last 26 games following a win.  Oakland is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angels is 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and 4-1 in the last five home meetings.  The home team is 14-6 in Marty Foster's last 20 games behind home play.  Take the Angels Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Rockets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Mavericks and Rockets played in a high-scoring affair in Game 1 as they combined for 226 combined points.  The total for that game was set at 213, and now the books have raised it up to 215.5 for Game 2, providing us with some value on the UNDER.

As a series goes on, teams get more familiar with one another, and that usually leads to better defense being played.  I look for that to be the case in Game 2 as the intensity is picked up a notch, and the game slows down as a result.

That Game 1 outburst was really an aberration when you look at the regular season meetings.  In fact, the UNDER went 4-0 in the four meetings between these teams during the regular year.  They combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings, or an average of 200.0 points per game.  That fact alone shows that there is value with this UNDER.

Dallas is 12-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge; two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 6 or more consecutive overs are 30-8 (78.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans.  They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers.

Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win.  Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series.

New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late.  It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs.  It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch.

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year.  The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +122

Great value here for one of the hottest teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They will be up against a Colorado Rockies team that is coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers over the weekend.

Odrisamer has earned a spot in the starting rotation for the Padres.  He posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 16 starts last season for San Diego, had a great spring, and now he's 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.343 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings thus far in 2015.  He has allowed just one earned run and four base runners.

Jorge De La Rosa is one of the most overvalued starters in the league and should not be favored here.  He has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.440 WHIP over his 11-year career.  He went 14-11 with a 4.10 ERA last season for Colorado.  He'll be making his first start of the season tonight.

Colorado is 14-41 (-26.2 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits since 1997.  The Rockies are 6-22 (-16.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons.  Colorado is 15-44 (-28.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 21-7 in their last 28 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Rockies are 0-8 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Padres Monday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +109

The Chicago Cubs have Kris Bryant in the lineup going forward and will be a very dangerous team in the National League with a loaded roster now.  I look for them to really go on a run here soon, and it starts tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs should not be underdogs tonight with the edge they have on the mound.  Jake Arrieta is coming off a career year last season, going 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 25 starts.  He has picked up right where he left off, going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts in 2015. 

Arrieta is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.130 WHIP In four career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 4-0 in those starts.  He'll be opposed by A.J. Burnett, who is overvalued due to a solid start this season.  But you have to remember that Burnett went 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 34 starts last season for Philadelphia.

Arrieta is 17-7 (+12.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Burnett is 7-20 (-13.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.  The Cubs are 10-2 in Arrieta's last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Burnett's last 6 Monday starts.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take the Cubs Monday.

15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series.  I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs.  They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs.

I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips.

San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

15* Reds/Cardinals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +167

The Cincinnati Reds are showing tremendous value Sunday as massive road underdogs to the St. Louis Cardinals.  After losing the first two games in this series, they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep.

Mike Leake is one of the most underrated starters in the league, while Adam Wainwright is one of the most overrated.  That explains this line as the Cardinals are nearly 2-to-1 favorites.

Cincinnati is 139-139 (+39.4 Units) against the money line in road games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games since 1997.   St. Louis is 9-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  Roll with the Reds Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued.  Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason.  They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread.

The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale.  They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs.

The  Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season.  These games weren't close either.  That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Rockets NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Mavericks and Rockets in terms of the over/under.  Based off of their meetings during the regular season, it's clear that there is some value with this under, especially with the defensive intensity amplified in the playoffs.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings this season.  They have combined for 209, 211, 193 and 187 points from most recent to furthest back.  That's an average of 200 combined points per game, which is roughly 11.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 211.5.

When you just look at season averages alone it's clear there's value with the UNDER, too.  The Mavs combine with their opponents for 207.5 points per game overall, and 206.1 points per game on the road.  The Rockets combine with their foes for 204.4 points overall, and only 201.6 at home.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Rockets last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season.  Take this combined 12-0 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER Saturday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125

After losing Game 1 of this series in heartbreaking fashion to the Red Sox by a final of 2-3, I look for the Baltimore Orioles to bounce back in a big way Saturday with a Game 2 victory.  They have a huge edge on the mound in this one.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  He is as consistent as they come.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.85 ERA in two starts this season.  He owns the Red Sox, going 7-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 career starts against them.

Clay Buchholz, on the other hand, is as inconsistent as they come.  He is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA in two starts this season.  Buchholz has really struggled of late against Baltimore, giving up 9 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings for an 8.38 ERA in his last two starts against them.

Tillman is 7-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.  Tillman is 9-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Buchholz is 0-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 32-14 in Tillman's last 46 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Orioles Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+101)

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight blowout victories to get to 4-6 on the season.  They have outscored their last two opponents 15-7, and I look for third straight victory by multiple runs tonight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Max Scherzer, the top free agent this offseason, is already living up to his $210 million contract.  He has posted a 0.66 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just one earned run over 13 2/3 innings.  Scherzer is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan is part of one of the worst starting staffs in baseball.  He certainly wouldn't make many rotations in the league other than Philadelphia.  That's because he is 10-17 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.555 WHIP over 237 1/3 innings in his six-year career in the majors.

Scherzer is 11-1 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  His teams are outscoring the opposition 6.8 to 2.6 in this spot, or by an average of 4.2 runs per game.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins +104

The Miami Marlins are starting to play up to their potential after a 1-6 start.  They have won their last two games while outscoring Atlanta 14-4 in the process.  I look for their offensive surge to continue against the New York Mets tonight at an excellent underdog price.

New York comes into this game overvalued due to its fast 6-3 start, which has included four straight victories coming in.  That winning streak ends today against a Miami team that has a better lineup and arguably the better starter on the mound.

Jarred Cosart is coming off a huge finish last season.  After getting traded from Houston to Miami prior to the July 31st trade deadline, Cosart went on to post a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts with the Marlins.  He has picked up where he left off, giving up just one earned run over six innings against Tampa Bay in his first start this year.

Dillon Gee is not off to a promising start.  He gave up five earned runs and a homer in five innings of a 3-5 loss at Atlanta in his first start of 2015.  Gee went 7-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 22 starts for the Mets last year and is a below-average starter in this league.

New York is 12-35 (-25.9 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Mets are 6-21 (-16.8 Units) against the money line after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival over the last 3 seasons.  Cosart is 6-0 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Marlins Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -125

The San Diego Padres are really playing to their talent level over the past five days.  They have gone 4-1 in those five games, which includes three wins over the defending champion Giants.  After splitting the first two games of this series with Arizona, I look for them to win Game 3 and to take the series tonight.

Brandon Morrow has been slowed by injuries throughout his career.  But he also had to pitch in the tough AL East with Toronto even when he was healthy.  Now, he has made the switch to the National League, and I believe that move will pay big dividends for him all season.

He's certainly off to a great start.  Morrow pitched seven shutout innings while striking out seven batters in a 1-0 win over the San Francisco Giants on April 10th.  I look for him to pick up right where he left off inside the friendly confines of Petco Park.

Arizona has one of the worst pitching staffs in the big leagues.  Chase Anderson is one of its top starters, and he went 9-7 with a 4.01 ERA last year for the Diamondbacks.  Anderson gave up three runs and eight base runners over five innings in his first start of the season against the Dodgers.

Arizona is 10-32 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 6-21 in their last 27 games as a road underdog.  Arizona is 1-10 in its last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Anderson's last four road starts.  The Padres are 36-16 in their last 52 home games, including 20-6 in their last 26 as a home favorite.  Take the Padres Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5

The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight.  A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight.

However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process.  That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here.

New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season.  It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14).  Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch.

The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season.  In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio.  Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road.  They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.  The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.  San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season.  The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2

The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday.  They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for.  They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed.  That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round.

Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in.  Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch.

I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight.  Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -126

After losing three straight coming in, the Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Chicago White Sox.  I like their chances of getting a win due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Carrasco picked up where he left off last season.  He struck out 10 and allowed three hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 2-0 win at Houston on Wednesday.  He posted a 1.30 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 69 innings over his final 10 starts of 2014.  Carrasco went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his final three appearances against the White Sox last season.

Jose Quintana gets the ball for the White Sox in this one.  He went 9-11 with a 3.32 ERA last year for Chicago.  He has given up seven earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  Quintana allowed five runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-7 loss to Kansas City in his 2015 debut.

The White Sox are 9-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 64-29 (+22.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.  Chicago is 7-19 in its last 26 road games.  The White Sox are 1-10 in Quintana's last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Indians are 26-10 in their last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 7-1 in its last eight games following an off day.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -118

After losing two straight and four of their last five games, the Baltimore Orioles come into this game against the New York Yankees highly motivated for a victory.  That's especially the case after losing Game 1 by a final of 5-6 yesterday.

The Orioles give the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who gave up just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in his first start of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Gonzalez sports a 3.62 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia has lost it.  The longtime ace posted a 4.87 ERA during the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined.  He gave up five runs to Toronto in 5 2/3 innings in his first start of 2015 after having a horrible spring training.  Plus, Sabathia is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA in his last six regular-season starts at Camden Yards.

Baltimore is 17-7 (+12.5 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons.  The Yankees are 14-32 in their last 46 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  New York is 2-9 in Sabathia's last 11 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Orioles are 35-17 in their last 52 home games.  Baltimore is 20-9 in Gonzalez's last 29 home starts.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

15* Mariners/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +115

The Seattle Mariners are showing excellent value here as road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one, which will lead them to a third consecutive victory as they look to climb above .500 on the season.

James Paxton is one of the best young starters in the game.  He allowed two runs and four hits in six innings of Tuesday's 2-0 home defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.  In two career starts in NL parks, Paxton is 1-1 with a 0.90 ERA.

Brandon McCarthy was terrible in Arizona last year before finishing strong in New York.  Los Angeles is banking that the strong finish was a sign of things to come.  I don't believe it will be as he went 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA over five spring training starts.  He gave up four runs and nine hits over five-plus innings against San Diego in his first start this year.

The Dodgers are 3-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 2 seasons.  The Mariners are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Mariners are 5-1 in Paxton's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them.  That's the case again tonight folks.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs.  They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch.

Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs.  It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation.  Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Nets UNDER 200

Both the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for heading into their showdown tonight.  The Bulls want home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, while the Nets want to just make the playoffs as they are currently the No. 9 seed if the season were to end today, tied with No. 8 Indiana.

There's no question that both teams are going to be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win tonight.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this contest, especially when you consider the recent history in this head-to-head series.

The Bulls and Nets have combined for 192 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points.  That's an average of 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th.  Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down.  They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either.

The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half.  The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday.

Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today.  That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one.

Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season.  They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta.  If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is.  They won't show up today either.

Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996.  The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.   The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -137

Chris Sale makes his 2015 debut today after having to miss some time due to a broken foot.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues, and that's again evident today considering we are getting him at only -133 against the lowly Twins.

The White Sox finally got their first win of the season yesterday in a 5-4 home victory over the Twins.  I look for them to build off that win and to have some confidence coming into this Game 3 against Minnesota and starter Phil Hughes.

Sale is coming off a Cy Young-caliber season as he went 12-4 with a 2.17 ERA last year.  He owns the Twins, going 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

The Twins are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog.  The White Sox are 27-11 in Sales last 38 starts as a home favorite.  Chicago is 4-0 in Sale's last four starts vs. Twins.  Take the White Sox Sunday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss.  That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything.

That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks.  Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least.

What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night.  Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points.

Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16.  The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as generous -127 home favorites over the Kansas City Royals tonight.  They opened around -148 favorites and the betting public has been pounding the Royals, giving us 21 extra points of juice.

The reason the public is all over the Royals is because they are 4-0.  They are clearly overvalued after that start, and now they send their worst starter to the mound in Jeremy Guthrie.  The right-hander has really struggled in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 16 runs, 13 earned, and 8 homers in 21 innings.

Meanwhile, the Angels will be out for revenge after losing Game 1 of this series, and they'll be sending their ace to the mound to get payback.  Jered Weaver loves facing Kansas City.  He is 7-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Royals.

Los Angeles also wants revenge from behind swept by the Royals in the postseason last year.  Weaver is 94-38 (+32.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.  The Angels are 42-13 in Weaver's last 55 home starts.  Take the Angels Saturday.

15* Rays/Marlins Interleague No-Brainer on Miami +104

The Miami Marlins opened the season 0-3 and were in desperate need of a win yesterday.  They game through in a game way with a walk-off hit to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 10-9.  I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence today in Game 2 of this series against the Rays Saturday.

Jared Cosart is one of the many underrated starters in this Miami rotation.  He went 13-11 with a 3.69 ERA in 2014 and is looking forward to getting back on the mound after a blister on his right  middle finger delayed his first start.

Cosart is a perfect 3-0 in three career starts against the Rays.  He has compiled a minuscule 1.17 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in those three starts while allowing 3 earned runs over 23 innings.  He was an underdog of +260, +130 and +175 in those three starts as well.

The Marlins are 19-7 in their last 26 interleague games overall, including 9-1 in thier last 10 interleague games as a favorite.  The Marlins are 15-2 in their last 17 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 1-5 in Chris Archer's last six interleague starts.  Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -114

After opening the season 1-3 following last night's 1-0 loss to the Giants in Game 1 of this series in 12 innings, the San Diego Padres are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 2 to get back on track.

Brandon Morrow will get the nod for the Padres, and his new home should help revive his career.  He has spent most of his career in Toronto, which has been a tough place to pitch and a tough division to pitch against in the AL East.  Now he's in the NL West inside Petco Park, which will make a huge difference for the fly-ball pitcher.

The Giants will give the ball to Tim Lincecum, who has completely lost it over the last few years.  He went 1-4 with an 8.24 ERA in his final seven starts last season and was relegated to the bullpen.  Lincecum wasn't much better this spring, posting a 5.95 ERA in three starts and four relief appearances.

San Diego is 30-13 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 1 run or less over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 24-8 in their last 32 home games overall.  The Giants are 0-7 in Lincecum's last 7 road starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  Take the Padres Friday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.  San Antonio beat Houston 110-98 at home on Wednesday for 208 combined points.  So, they're now playing two days later, and their familiarity with one another will lead to more of a defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Plus, both these teams are fighting for the Southwest Division Title.  Houston is 53-25 while San Antonio is 53-26, just a half-game back.  Both have a realistic shot of getting the No. 2 seed in the West, but both could also slip to No. 5 if they don't finish strong.  That means both teams should be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.

Previous meetings in Houston have been extremely low-scoring in comparison to this total.  They have combined for 179, 202, 187 and 191 points in their last four meetings in Houston as the UNDER has gone 4-0.  That's an average combined score of 189.8 points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.5.

San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Houston is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons.  Houston is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 191

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season due to their ability to get after it on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, they rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they'll be up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks.  The Knicks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions.  New York also plays at a very slow tempo, ranking 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game.

The last two meetings between these teams in 2015 have been very low-scoring.  They Bucks won 95-82 for 177 combined points and 95-79 for 174 combined points, which are both numbers that are well below tonight's posted total of 191, showing just how much value there is with this UNDER.

New York is 8-1 UNDER when revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games following a loss. The UNDER is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Nets UNDER 200.5

Both the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for right now.  Washington is one game back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  Brooklyn is one game ahead of Indiana for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, just fighting to make the playoffs.

Because these two teams have a lot to play for right now, I look for both to be laying it all on the line defensively.  Washington has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What I really love about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings in 2015 alone where they've combined for 182, 189 and 191 points.  That's an average of 187.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.5.  Plus, the familiarity between these teams having played 4 times in 2015 alone will favor the defenses.

Washington is 170-107 UNDER in road games when the total is 190 to 199.5 points since 1996.  Brooklyn is 15-5 UNDER after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Wizards last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 35-12-2 in Wizards last 49 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Toronto -104

C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime at 34 years old.  He made just eight starts last year but didn't pitch after May 10 due to a season-ending knee injury.  However, he was coming off the worst year of his career in 2013, where he went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA.

Sabathia, who started Opening Day from 2006-2014, gave way to Masahiro Tanaka this season.  If the spring was any indication, Sabathia is going to struggle again in 2015.  Over 10 innings in the big leagues this spring, he allowed nine runs on 14 hits, three of which were home runs.

The Blue Jays have to be excited about Daniel Norris, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the game.  He had the best K/9 ratio (11.8) in the minors last season behind a dancing fastball that tops out at 96-97 mph.  He struck out 29 batters over 24 2/3 innings in the spring as well.

Toronto is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite.  New York is 5-11 in Sabathia's last 16 starts as an underdog.  The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 during Game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 13-5 in its last 18 games with Jerry Meals behind home plate.  Roll with the Blue Jays Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -122

San Diego fans will be excited about the Padres' home opener tonight against the defending world champion San Francisco Giants.  I look for the team to respond, especially after losing two out of three to the Dodgers to open the series.

Ian Kennedy is looking to build on a strong 2014 season that saw him record a career-high 207 strikeouts over 201 innings.  Kennedy is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 20 career starts against the Giants, so he certainly loves facing this team.

The 39-year-old Tim Hudson gets the ball for the Giants after struggling at the end of last season.  He finished 9-13 with a 3.57 ERA last year, but was much better in the first half than the second.  He simply doesn't have much left in the tank.

The Padres are 8-3 in home openers since 2004.  San Diego is 24-7 in its last 31 home games overall.  The Padres are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts overall.  San Diego is 9-4 in its last 13 home meetings with San Francisco.  Take the Padres Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Knicks UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks tonight.  These teams have played in low-scoring games in all three meetings this season, and I look for that to continue tonight.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  New York ranks 29th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 24th.  Both teams prefer to play at slow paces too.  New York ranks 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 19th at 95.7 possessions per contest.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams as they've combined for 178, 187, 185 and 178 points, respectively.  That's an average of 182.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5.

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER in road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 7

This 7-run total in Game 3 of this series between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays makes no sense to me.  The first two games of this series also had 7-run totals, but both teams had better starters on the mound than they do tonight, yet both games went OVER the total in 6-2 and 6-5 Orioles' victories.

Miguel Gonzalez is a solid starter after going 10-9 with a 3.23 ERA last year for the Orioles, but he is not as good as Chris Tillman or Wei-Yin Chen.  Jake Odorizzi, who went 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA last year for the Rays, certainly isn't as good as Tampa's first two starters in Chris Archer and Nate Karns.

What really stands out to me is how poor these starters have been against their opposition.  Gonzalez is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay.  He has allowed seven earned runs, 22 base runners and 4 homers over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays.  Odorizzi is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He allowed 8 earned runs runs, 12 base runners and 4 homers in 4 innings in his last start against the Orioles.

Baltimore is 13-3 OVER in April road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 games following a win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -109

After getting shut out in the opener 3-0, the Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to get a win in Game 2 of this series to avoid falling to 0-2 on the season.  Jon Lester didn't have his best stuff, and the Cubs went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.  That's not going to happen again.

Now the Cubs will be giving the ball to one of the most underrated starters in the game.  Jake Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts last year for Chicago.  Lance Lynn is a quality starter coming off a big year as well, but he is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here with this short line.

Arrieta is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis, allowing just three earned runs over 29 1/3 innings of work.  Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters for the Cardinals, are 0-for-23 with eight strikeouts all-time versus Arrieta.

St. Louis is 5-17 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-29 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Arrieta is 16-7 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Chicago is 10-3 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 in Lynn's last 7 starts as a road underdog.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Arrrieta's last 4 home starts.  Roll with Chicago Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

I expect a big bounce-back season out of the Reds this year after winning 77 games last year.  They had won 90-plus games in three of the previous four seasons before suffering an MLB-high 38 one-run losses last season.  They were better than their record would indicate.

Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were both hurt last year, and Jay Bruce had an unusual down year, likely due to not having much protection with those two out.  Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton should build off of big years last season.  They added in Marlon Byrd, who hit 25 homers last year and will help make this one of the best lineups in baseball.

The biggest reason I'm on the Reds in the opener is due to their edge on the mound.  Ace Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He's coming off another big year where he went 20-9 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 34 starts, including 13-4 with a 1.171 WHIP and 0.828 WHIP in 18 home starts.

Cueto has simply owned the Pirates, going 18-5 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  He went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six starts against Pittsburgh in 2014, giving up just nine earned runs in 46 innings of work, which included two complete games.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +116

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year with all they lost in the offseason.  They lost manager Joe Maddon, second-baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder Wil Myers.  They also lost David Price before the trade deadline last year.

The Baltimore Orioles continue to be one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They won the AL East last year and went 99-66.  They should not be an underdog to the Rays in the opener as they are once again lacking the respect they deserve.

Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore after going 14-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 36 starts last season.  Tillman went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay last season, allowing just four earned runs over 21 innings.

Because Price is gone, Tampa Bay now sends Chris Archer to the mound on opening day.  He's a solid starter but no ace.  Archer is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Orioles last year, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings.

Tillman is 26-11 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 17-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 25-7 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Orioles Monday.

20* Cardinals/Cubs 2015 MLB Season Opener on Chicago -108

This is going to be a raucous crowd tonight at Wrigley Field in anticipation for the Chicago Cubs' season opener.  When watching this game, you'll see a new videoboard beyond the left-field wall, which signifies a new day and a new era at Wrigley.

The Cubs had a huge offseason in adding ace Jon Lester and manager Joe Maddon to go along with one of the top young lineups in baseball.  Lester will get his chance to show that he was worth his big contract as the Opening Day starter tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lester has been a member of the American League his entire career, and the change to the National League will only further his success.  Lester went 16-11 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP with 225 strikeouts in 227 innings last year, including 8-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 home starts.

Adam Wainwright is a solid starter in his own right, but he's nearing the decline of his career.  Wainwright is 11-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 27 career starts against Chicago.  Lester is 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis, two of which came in the World Series two years ago in which he allowed one earned run over 15 1/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Both the Miami Heat (34-42) and Indiana Pacers (33-43) are on the outside looking in right now when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Heat are in 9th place just 1.5 games back of Boston, while the Pacers are in a tied for 10th just 1.5 games behind Boston.

It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a win.  What that means is that the defensive intensity will be at an all-time high this season for both teams, which I believe will lead to a defensive battle and low-scoring affair.

Two of three meetings between these teams this season have been extremely low-scoring.  They combined for 156 points in their first meeting back on November 12th, and 176 points in their most recent clash on January 23rd.  Yes, they did have a 201-point outing in between, but they are still only averaging 177.7 combined points per game this season.  That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.

Miami is 12-1 UNDER when playing against a losing team with a winning percentage of 40% of 49% this season.  Indiana is 11-3 UNDER in home games where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197

The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  They will be locked in defensively tonight as they take on the Detroit Pistons, who are missing their best player in Greg Monroe.

The Bulls certainly don't play with much urgency on offense, and neither do the Pistons.  In fact, the Bulls rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 95.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons are just ahead of them at 22nd, averaging 95.4 possessions per game.  These numbers show that this game is likely to be played in the half court at a slow pace.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points, and seven of those have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Detroit is 11-2 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn.  Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves.  They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him.  The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall.

Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2

The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament.  It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.

The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way.  They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.

Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage.  They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year.  The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season.

The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night.  While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much.

Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday.  However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season.

Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3

The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now.  They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed.  That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans.

This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss.  Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well.

Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 192.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.  Both teams have a lot to play for right now, which I believe will lead to max effort defensively from these already solid defensive teams.

Milwaukee is tied for 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.  But the Bucks are not very good on the other end, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  Neither team really pushed the pace.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace while the Bucks are 14th.

What really stood out to me about this game is the recent history between these teams.  The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 192.5.

They have combined for 158, 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 173.9 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result.

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City.  That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now.

The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah.  They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more.

The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.  This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight.  Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.  If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is.

Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence.  They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game.  They are now within one game of third-place Memphis.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason.  Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.

Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall.  All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC.  I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.

After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here.  Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.

Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate.  It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer.  It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.

Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5

The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed.  It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now.

That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way.  That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th.

The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight.  Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver.  This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here.

The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland.  Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now.  As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107).  The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry.  I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio.

Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years.  The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents.  The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Memphis Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.

The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62).  Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.

I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog.  The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out.  I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do.  The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.

Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Gonzaga Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season.  That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.

The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82).  So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.

Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now.  He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day.  The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.

I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16.  Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers.  To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them.  It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range.  It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc.  The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats.  They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.

The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls host the New York Knicks tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  The Knicks have been one of the top-two worst offensive team in the league this season, and the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose.

New York averages just 91.9 points per game on the season, including a woeful 84.8 points in its last five games overall.  It is extremely depleted right now, playing with guys that wouldn't make the roster on most teams.

New York ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  It also plays at a deliberate pace, ranking 28th at 93.5 possessions per game.  Chicago likes to play a half-court game as well.  It ranks 23rd in pace at 95.3 possessions per contest.

The Knicks are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  It is combining with its opponents for 176.5 points per game in this spot, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.  Chicago is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin.  They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year.  I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.

Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well.  They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points.  That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky.  They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.

Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament.  It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting.  It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points.  It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5

This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons.  The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play.  That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded.

The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday.  The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games.  The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go.

Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks.  They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games.

The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons .  Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4

The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76.  After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown.

After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West.  They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout.  They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now.  They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed.  They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them.

The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3

You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.

The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.

NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch.  It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th.  It has beaten Duke within the conference as well.  Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.

Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here.  It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener.  It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53.  UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it.  They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.

The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year.  Bet NC State Friday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5

The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.

After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky.  They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.

In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season.  They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field.  They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.

Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game.  It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener.  Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor.  The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.

Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona.  The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats.  They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5

Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.

The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59.  They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland.  The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half.  They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.

Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes.  The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites.  Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.

West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games.  West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are battling for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  At 43-29 on the season, the Bulls lead the Raptors by 1/2-game for the No. 3 seed in the East.  Both teams could move up to No. 2, while both could also slip to No. 5.  Due to their standing, the defensive intensity in this game will be very high.

The Bulls have recently returned their top defender in Jimmy Butler from a 12-game absence.  He was rusty in his first game back, shooting 6-for-20 from the floor, but his defense helped the Bulls beat the Hornets 98-86 at home last time out.  The Bulls had gone over the total in eight straight prior to that game, and the total was inflated as a result.  It is inflated once again tonight.

Toronto is without its best player in Kyle Lowry, who is listed as doubtful Wednesday with a back injury.  He returned against the Pistons last night after missing two games with back spasms, but left in the second quarter and did not return.

Lowry missed last week's matchup with the Bulls after averaging 27.0 points in the previous two meetings.  The Bulls won that game 108-92 at home for 200 combined points on March 20th.  Now, less than a week later, these teams meet again.  They are obviously very familiar with one another now as this will be their 4th meeting of the season.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

The Bulls and Raptors have combined for 200 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Raptors last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 192

Both the Indiana Pacers & Washington Wizards have a lot to play for tonight, thus I believe the defensive intensity will be very high in this game.  Indiana is one game out of the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, while Washington is two games back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Both the Pacers and Wizards play at below-average paces this season.  Washington ranks 18th in the NBA in pace at 95.9 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 20th at 95.5 per contest.  Indiana ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  Washington ranks 5th in defensive efficiency at 100.3 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 10th at 101.1 per contest.

What really stands out to me about this game is the recent head-to-head history.  The Wizards & Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, and 13 of the last 14 meetings overall.  They have combined for 187, 168, 173, 181, 187, 148 and 168 points in the last seven meetings at the end of regulation.  That's an average of 173.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 192.

Indiana is 14-4 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Washington is 15-5 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Wizards are 46-23 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games since 1996.  The UNDER is 30-13-2 in Wizards last 45 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks (34-36) and Miami Heat (32-37) are currently in the 6th and 7th spots in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Both are fighting to make the playoffs right now, so the defensive intensity will be there tonight, which is a big reason I like the UNDER in this game.

The Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season because of their work at the defensive end.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but just 24th in offensive efficiency.  With those numbers, it's no surprise that they have gone 39-31 to the UNDER in all games this season.

The Heat rank just 18th in offensive efficiency this season.  They have been decent defensively, giving up an average of 97.0 points per game this year.  But what stands out to me is that Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, it ranks 29th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is 40-29 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season.  The Heat are 22-6 to the UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bucks last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record.  As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record.

Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points.  They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread.

This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.  They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers.

The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring game tonight.  Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so the defensive intensity will be there.

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 13th.  Both teams play at deliberate paces as well.  Chicago ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Charlotte ranks 21st at 95.5 possessions per contest.

What really has this total inflated is the fact that Chicago has gone over the total in eight consecutive games coming in.  That has forced the books to set this number higher than it should be.  Charlotte ranks just 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHARLOTTE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs are 100-58 (63.3%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 12 meetings, and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.  It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.

Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT.  This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams.  They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.

Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season.  It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in.  The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament.  They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.

The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Monday.

25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.

The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.

Iowa put together perhaps the  most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson.  Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch.  The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it.  It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.

This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.

Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss.  Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson.  Bet Gonzaga.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Thunder UNDER 214.5

Both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for playoff spots.  As a result, their defensive intensity will be at a high level, and I believe the books have set the bar too high in listing this total at 214.5.

When looking at the recent history int his series, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Miami and Oklahoma City have combined for 180, 184, 207, 210 and 200 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average combined score of 196.2 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than today's posted total of 214.5.

Miami is 27-12 UNDER versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 20-9 in Heat's last 29 road games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run.  They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.

This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.  Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season.  That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64.  I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season.  UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5

Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.

The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.

Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start.  It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.

Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons Saturday.  When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have combined for 191, 193, 206, 199, 167, 178, 184, 189 and 167 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Now, you also have to factor in that both teams are without their top scorers.  Chicago is without leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and second-leading scorer Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  Detroit is expected to be without leading scorer Greg Monroe (16.0 ppg) and second-leading scorer Brandon Jennings (15.4 ppg).

Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games off a home win this season.  The Bulls are 11-1 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of its last game over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER In road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.

The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games.  The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years.  Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.

Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country.  Roll with Dayton Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors.  After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out.

The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest.  They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own.  Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player.  They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -13

Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) finished in a tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, which was easily the strongest conference in the country. Veteran head coach Lon Krueger brought back a ton of talent from last year, and he added in Tashawn Thomas, a Houston transfer who provided the Sooners with a big who can score.

Without question, the Sooners have one of the best starting fives in the country. Buddy Hield (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is one of the best players in the land, but Isaiah Cousins (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), TaShawn Thomas (11.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Spangler (10.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.9 apg) are all capable of carrying the team on a given night. The only weakness is a lack of depth off the bench.

Albany (24-8, 15-1 Am. East) rolled through a weak conference schedule, but it was a completely different story out of conference.  The Great Danes went just 9-8 in non-conference play.  They lost to Quinnipiac, Holy Cross, St. Francis, Bucknell and Niagara, which shows that they simply aren't very good.

Albany struggles to score the basketball as well, ranking 218th in scoring (65.5 points/game) and 312th in assists (10.4/game).  Oklahoma has no trouble scoring the basketball, ranking 65th at 71.9 points per game.  I look for the Sooners to jump out to a big lead, and for Albany to not have the firepower to hang around.

Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS against poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 21-10 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. They’ll be up against an Albany team that is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take Oklahoma Friday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland -4

Maryland (27-6, 14-4 Big Ten) was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  It continues to lack the respect it deserves as only a 4-point favorite over No. 13 Valparaiso in the Round of 64.  The Terrapins even deserved better than a No. 4 seed in my opinion.

Maryland went 10-1 in non-conference play with its only loss coming to then-No. 7 Virginia.  It beat then-No. 13 Iowa State 72-63 and Arizona State 78-73 for two impressive non-conference wins, while also going on the road and beating Oklahoma State (73-64).  It has six wins in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams as well, including two over Michigan State and one over Wisconsin.

Valparaiso had a fine season at 28-5 and 13-3 in the Horizon League, but it is not battle-tested because it played such a soft schedule this year.  Its non-conference schedule was a joke with its best win coming against Murray State, but it also lost by 15 at Missouri (41-56), which was terrible this year.  The Horizon League was a joke this year as well outside of Wisconsin-Green Bay, which lost to Illinois State in the first round of the NIT.

The Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Terrapins.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run, and I look for them to do just that starting with this game against Wofford.

It's obvious that the Razorbacks don't get the love they deserve when this line is only 7.5 in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.  I look for them to go out and earn it in this game.  This is a team that went 26-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.  Three of its eight losses this season came to Kentucky.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

Wofford posted an impressive 28-6 record this season, but it did so against the weakest of schedules.  The Terriers only had one good non-conference win this season, which was a 55-54 victory at NC State.  They were blown out by 33 at West Virginia, by 29 at Duke and by 15 at Stanford.  If they cannot compete with those teams, they certainly aren't going to hang with Arkansas.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, coming back to win by an average of 15.1 points per game in this spot.  The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. SEC foes.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas -1.5

The higher seed is going to beat the lower seed in this game between No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Butler.  It will be an upset in terms of the bracket, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have this one right in listing the Longhorns as the favorites.  They are the better team and it will show on Thursday.

Texas (20-13) was a popular pick to make the Final Four coming into the season.  With all five starters back, and the addition of future lottery pick Myles Turner, it's easy to see why.  Well, the Longhorns did not live up to expectations this year, and it didn't help that they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as well as in the toughest conference in the country.

There's no denying that Texas has the pieces and the talent to make a deep run in the big dance.  They have a dynamic point guard in Isiah Taylor, a versatile wingman in Jonathan Holmes, and an imposing back line.  In fact, no team blocks more shots per possession than the Longhorns.  I believe their size will give the undersized Butler Bulldogs fits in this one.

When you look at Texas' season, it's easy to see that it was better than its record would indicate.  It played a brutal non-conference schedule with wins over Iowa, Cal and UConn, while losing to Kentucky and Stanford (OT).  Each of its last six losses in Big 12 play came by 8 points or less, so it was simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +14

The UAB Blazers benefited from playing the Conference USA Tournament in their home city. They parlayed that home-court advantage into a Conference USA Tournament title. They beat Western Kentucky 53-52, Louisiana Tech 72-62 (OT), and Middle Tennessee 73-60 to punch their ticket to the big dance.

However, I would argue that UAB (19-15) is much better than its record would indicate. In fact, each of its last six losses came by either 4 points or less or in overtime. You have to go all the way back to December 27th against North Carolina on the road to find the last time that the Blazers were really blown out. They were also blown out by Wisconsin, and lost to Florida by 9 and UCLA by 12 in the non conference.

Iowa State is getting a lot of hype coming into the NCAA Tournament due to its Big 12 Tournament win.  Well, nothing came easy for the Cyclones.  In fact, they have trailed by double-digits in each of their last five games and by a combined 75 points, yet they have gone 5-0 with all close victories.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition and falling behind early, which bodes well for the Blazers covering this 14-point spread.

Due to all of these close games, it’s no wonder that the Blazers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. UAB is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. UAB is also 10-1 ATS against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games this season.  Take UAB Thursday.

25* NCAA First Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Dayton -4

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Boise State is 25-8 on the season as well and had a very solid year.  But it played a much softer schedule than Dayton this season.  The Broncos are overvalued coming in due to having gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have to make a long trip to Dayton for this First-Four game, which is a huge disadvantage.

Dayton is 16-0 at home this season and has won its last 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division 1. The Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or more and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less.  Bet Dayton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Both teams come in tired as they are playing the second of a back-to-back.  I look for that to affect the offenses more than the defenses, and for this game to be played at a very slow pace as a result.

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace as it is with San Antonio at 17th and Milwaukee at 14th.  What I really like about this play is that both teams rank in the top 10 in defense.  Milwaukee is 2nd in defensive efficiency, while San Antonio ranks 8th in defensive efficiency.

The Spurs are 20-12 to the UNDER in road games this season.  They are scoring just 97.5 points and allowing 96.1 points away from home this year.  The Bucks are 18-12 to the UNDER in home games, scoring 98.3 points and allowing 95.7 points per contest.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a loss.  These two trends combine for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER today folks.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -3

The Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) were overlooked this season in the Missouri Valley Conference.  That's because both Wichita State and Northern Iowa had tremendous seasons.  Well, there's no question that the Redbirds were the third-best team in the conference.

There's no question in my mind that the Redbirds were even better than their 21-12 record would suggest.  In fact, eight of their 12 losses came by 6 points or less, so they were simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay played an easier schedule than Illinois State coming from the Horizon League.  It posted a solid 25-8 record this season, but it just couldn't beat Valpo when it needed to to get in the big dance.  I believe the Phoenix are still deflated following their loss to the Crusaders in the championship game.

One way to compare teams is common opponents.  These teams played the same four teams this year.  Green Bay went 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Illinois State went 6-0 against those same four teams, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.

Illinois State is 11-2 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games after covering two of its last three against the spread.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Take Illinois State Wednesday.

15* First-Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +4

Many felt that the BYU Cougars (25-9) did not belong in the NCAA Tournament because of their lack of quality wins.  I would have to agree, but a big finish and a win over Gonzaga got them in even though they would lose by 16 to the Zags in the conference tournament.

The Cougars didn't have one really impressive win outside of the conference, but they lost to SDSU, Purdue and Utah.  The Ole Miss Rebels (20-12) had their fair share of quality non-conference wins.  They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court and Oregon on the road.

There's no question that the Rebels played the tougher schedule in the SEC.  They took Kentucky to overtime on the road, which was the toughest that any team played the Wildcats this season.  They also beat fellow NCAA Tournament team Arkansas and played several others very tight.

Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games this year.  The Cougars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games.  The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +5.5

The Murray State Racers (27-5) are extremely disappointed that they won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament.  They felt like they did enough to get in, but the committee saw it differently after their lost to Belmont on a last-second 3-pointer in the conference championship game.

The UTEP Miners (22-10) are a very good team that played a much more difficult schedule than the Racers did this season.  They are the better team in this game in my opinion, and they should not even be underdogs to the Racers, let alone 5.5-point dogs.

UTEP did lose four non-conference games this year, but all four of them came by 7 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Arizona.  Murray State also lost four non-conference games, including a 74-77 home loss to Houston, a 62-89 loss at Xavier, and a 58-93 loss to Valparaiso.

The Miners are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Racers are 24-48 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game since 1997.  The Miners are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss.  The Racers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 185

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons tonight.  Both teams rely heavily on their big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies and Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe for the Pistons.  This is going to be a great battle between these four.

Another thing that stands out to me is that both teams play at a very slow pace.  The Grizzlies rank 26th in the NBA in pace at 94.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons rank 20th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The Grizzlies are also 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Memphis has really been clamping down defensively here of late.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, including 83 and 81 in back-to-back games.  Detroit has hit the skids offensively, scoring less than 100 points in seven of its last eight contests.

Detroit is 20-8 to the UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Grizzlies last 27 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Pistons last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks have had ample time to rest and correct their mistakes.  They have had two days off since their 129-99 home victory over the LA Clippers on Friday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 6 days, and I really like backing rested teams this time of year.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is going to be a very tired team heading into this one.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days following a hard-fought 109-100 home victory over the Chicago Bulls Sunday.

Making matters worse for the Thunder is that they are extremely short-handed right now.  They remain without Kevin Durant due to a foot injury.  Now, they are also expected to be without Serge Ibaka, who is doubtful today with a knee injury.

The Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets (26-38) know that they need a big finish if they want to make the playoffs.  They sit three games behind Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They cannot afford to lose to lowly Minnesota (14-51) tonight.

The Nets will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  The Timberwolves, meanwhile, will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 97-123 at San Antonio yesterday.

Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games overall with four straight losses by 9 points or more.  Making matters worse for the Timberwolves if their long list of injuries.  Gary Neal, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are all questionable to play today.  Anthony Bennett, Shabazz Muhammad and Robbie Hummel are all out.

Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.  The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -2

After a long stretch of poor play for about a month, the Washington Wizards (38-28) are finally back on track.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Not only have the Wizards been winning, they've been dominating.  They beat Charlotte 95-69 on the road, Memphis 107-87 at home, and Sacramento 113-97 at home.  This will only be their 3rd game in 7 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.

Portland is overvalued right now due to having won eight of its last nine.  This is the ultimate tough spot for the Blazers, who are coming off a 113-97 win at Toronto last night.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The home team has won three straight and 9 of the last 12 meetings in this series.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Washington.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -1.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Toronto Raptors as only 2-point home favorites.  They are 22-11 at home this season and have protected their home court very well, winning by an average of 5.0 points per game.

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, but they are just an average NBA road team this season.  They are 15-14 away from home where they are only outscoring foes by 0.9 points per game.

Toronto comes into this game way undervalued due to having lost nine of their last 11 games overall.  I backed them with success as a free pick on Friday with a 102-92 home victory over Miami as 5-point favorites.  I'll continue to roll them while they're undervalued today.

Portland is 4-16 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Toronto is 8-8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons.  It is winning by 8.2 points per game in this spot.  Take the Raptors Sunday.