Winning Sports Picks

20* 76ers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 227

The Los Angeles Clippers are missing Paul George (23.7 PPG), Luke Kennard (8.7 PPG) and John Wall (11.4 PPG) tonight. That's a lot of offensive production missing, and they have to rely on defense to be competitive without them.

Amazingly, the UNDER is 23-4 in Clippers last 27 home games, which is one of the best kept secrets in the NBA right now. They are 20-3 UNDER at home this season, averaging 106.1 PPG at home and allowing just 105.3 PPG.

The 76ers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, making them a dead nuts UNDER team. The Clippers rank 23rd in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency, making them an UNDER team as well. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and it's starting to show. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Dallas by 17 points each.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after winning six consecutive games coming in including five by double-digits. They barely survived in a 3-point win over the Magic as double-digit favorites last time out. And I expect they'll find it hard to beat Portland let alone by 8-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

This will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams this season. Portland has actually outscored Denver by 11 points combined in the first three meetings. 

The Blazers are 8-1 ATS following two consecutive home games this season. Denver is 1-9 ATS following three consecutive games where it made 50% of its shots or better. Portland is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games vs. good shooting teams that make 50% or better. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been lost in their last two games without Kevin Durant. They lost 109-98 at home to Boston and 112-102 at home to Oklahoma City as well. A team led by Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons is not a team I'd trust my money with.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They have been competitive despite continuing to lose outright, and I expect them to give the Nets a run for their money without Durant tonight.

The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Brooklyn. Roll with the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Raptors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Toronto and Milwaukee with combined scores of 197, 199, 228, 190 and 206 points at the end of regulation, respectively.

Given this head-to-head history, this total of 224 has been set too high tonight. The UNDER is also 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +7.5

The Butler Bulldogs are coming off one of their most complete performances of the season in a 79-71 upset home win over Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. Now they are catching too many points at home against Creighton on Tuesday.

Butler wants revenge from a 56-78 road loss at Creighton as 8-point dogs. Now the books have set the number almost exactly the same as the first meeting without adjusting for home-court advantage. That's great value with the Bulldogs at home.

Creighton is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season. Butler is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game. The Bluejays are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +10

Tulane is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Green Wave have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Memphis by 7, Tulsa by 16 and UCF by 8 as well as road wins over Temple by 11 and SMU by 9.

Now the Green Wave are ready to give the No. 1 ranked Houston Cougars a run for their money as double-digit home underdogs tonight. Tulane is 8-1 at home this season and has a big home-court advantage.

Houston has been vulnerable of late winning by 6 at home over UCF as 15-point favorites and by 6 at home over USF as 23-point favorites. They can't be trusted to be laying double-digits on the road here. You're definitely paying a tax to back the Cougars at this point with their No. 1 ranking and it's time to 'sell high' on them. Take Tulane Tuesday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Dallas Cowboys haven't won a road playoff game since January of 1993.  Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys including a 19-3 win at Dallas earlier this season.  The Cowboys failed to reach the red zone once in that first meeting.  The Cowboys are 1-4 on grass this season while going 11-1 on turf, and they will be outdoors on grass here where their speed isn't as much of a factor.

Dak Prescott is also 0-4 ATS in the playoffs in his career.  Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season despite missing five games.  He was terrible in a game the Cowboys were trying to win last week against Washington.  He went 14-of-37 for 128 yards with one touchdown and one interception while averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

The Cowboys lost that game 26-6 to the Commanders as 7-point road favorites.  Their 15 'drives' went like this; fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, pick-6, 3 and out, 3 and out, TD, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out, turnover on downs, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out.  That doesn't look like a team that is playoff-ready, and certainly not one that should be laying points on the road.

Tom Brady had his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 with a spot in the playoffs on the line.  Brady went 34-of-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Bucs to a 30-24 win.  He has all of his weapons healthy and may be getting back some key pieces along the offensive line.  The Bucs were able to rest starters for the majority of the game against the Falcons last week and will be fresh and ready to go.

I trust Brady over Prescott, and I also trust this Tampa Bay defense over this Dallas defense.  The Cowboys gave up 40 points and 503 yards to the Jaguars, 34 points and 442 yards against the Eagles and 26 points and 309 yards against the Commanders in three of their last four games.  The other game be thrown out as the Titans rested their starters in Week 17.

The Bucs rank 13th in scoring defense at 21.1 points per game on the season and you can throw out the 30 points they gave up to the Falcons in Week 18 because they rested starters on defense.  The Bucs also rank 9th in total defense at 324.3 yards per game and 10th at 5.1 yards per play.  They held the Cowboys to 3 points and 244 total yards in that first meeting back in Week 1 this season.

Teams that have played the tougher schedule than their opponent on the season have been great bets in the wild card round.  The Bucs played the 13th-ranked schedule, while the Cowboys plays the 29th.  The team that played the tougher schedule is 54-28-2 ATS since 2002 in the wild card round.  If the difference in SOS is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 30-9-1 ATS.

The Bucs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays against favorites (Dallas) - in a game between two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bucs Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Cavs UNDER 222.5

Points will be hard to come by in this showdown between two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pelicans rank 7th in the same category.

The Pelicans have to rely more on defense right now without their two best players and scorers in Zion Williamson and Brandin Ingram. I expect the Cavaliers to lock them down today.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 220 or fewer points in four of the five, including 212 or fewer in three of them. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pelicans last six games playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 9-2 in Cavaliers last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +3.5

The Michigan State Spartans are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and ready to pull off the upset over the Purdue Boilermakers at home today. They should not be catching 3.5 points here.

Purdue is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season. The Boilermakers only beat FSU by 10 as 16-point favorites, Nebraska by 3 in OT as 7.5-point favorites and Ohio State by 2 as 1.5-point dogs. But Zed Key got hurt early for Ohio State and they were behind the eight ball.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point. The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Purdue is 0-6 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season. Take Michigan State Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall with only four losses by more than this spread.  I fully expect them to give the Denver Nuggets a run for their money tonight and stay within this inflated number.

The reason this number is inflated is because the Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with five wins by double-digits.  But now it's time to 'sell high' on them, knowing this is a letdown spot after beating the Clippers on the road Friday on National TV.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight.

Denver is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games following a road win, including 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games following a road win by 10 points or more.  Plays against any team (Denver) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and their lone loss coming by a single point at Miami.  They should not be catching 5.5 points to the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

The Nets just lost Kevin Durant and are coming off an 11-point home loss to a short-handed Boston team without him.  They cannot be trusted to lay points to many teams in the NBA without Durant on the floor because he is far and away their best player.  I don't trust Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving to lead the team without him.

Brooklyn is 1-15 ATS in its last 16 home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  The Nets are 13-37 ATS in their last 50 games as home favorites.  The Thunder are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  Oklahoma City is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 221.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are expected to be without George (23.7 PPG), Morris (13.3 PPG), Wall (11.4 PPG) and Kennard (8.7 PPG) tonight.  The Houston Rockets are expected to be without Kevin Porter Jr. (19.2 PPG) as well.  That is a lot of offensive production missing today.

Amazingly, the UNDER is 19-3 in Clippers 22 home games this season.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team at home, scoring 105.5 PPG and allowing 105.5 PPG for an average of 211 combined PPG at home.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 228, 210, 188, 213 and 197 points between the Rockets and Clippers.  The UNDER is 22-4 in Clippers last 26 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +6

The Memphis Tigers continue to be grossly overvalued today as 6-point road favorites at Temple.  Memphis is 4-2 SU but 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall, losing both true road games outright as favorites at Tulane and at UCF.  They are on upset alert again today against Temple.

The Owls have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall continually getting disrespected by oddsmakers.  They are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Villanova, VCU and Cincinnati at home this season.

Temple is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Temple Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall including a very bad upset home loss to Minnesota.  But Ohio State was missing one of its most important players for two of those games in Zed Key (12.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG), and he is back healthy now.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost their last home game to Iowa by 11 so they can certainly be beaten at home.

Ohio State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 meetings with Rutgers.  The last two meetings were decided by 1 and 2 points.  Rutgers hasn't won any of its last nine meetings with Ohio State by more than 3 points, making for a 9-0 system backing the Buckeyes pertaining to this 4-point spread.  Take Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They played only one true road game during this stretch and only won 67-64 as 6-point favorites at Santa Clara.  Now they are laying 8 points at San Francisco tonight, and this line is too high.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Francisco after going 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  It has been a brutal schedule with road losses to Santa Clara and Portland, as well as home losses to Gonzaga and San Diego.  Keep in mind they only lost to Gonzaga by 2 at home, so they have shown their potential.

Each of the last three meetings between the Dons and Gaels have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  St. Mary's is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* Mavericks/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland ML -115

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  We'll 'buy low' on them following five consecutive SU & ATS losses coming in.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they are much healthier than their opponent.

The Dallas Mavericks are without Kleber, Finney-Smith and could be without Wood, who suffered an ankle injury.  This is a clear letdown spot after beating the Lakers in double OT on TNT Thursday.  Luka Doncic hit two game-tying 3's at the end of regulation and at the end of the first OT to keep them alive.  It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following that huge road victory on National TV.

Dallas is 2-10 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.  Dallas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  Roll with the Blazers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4

This is a great spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Thunder that came out of nowhere as they had won five of their previous six games with four by 9 points or more.  They will be pissed off from that loss and give a big effort in Utah tonight.  Plus, they are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tobias Harris, who is questionable.

This is a terrible spot for the Utah Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a hard-fought 112-108 win over the Magic last night.  Markkanen played 36 minutes and Clarkson 35 last night and neither will have much left in the tank after carrying the team with 51 combined points last night.

The 76ers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Jazz are 18-38-3 ATS in their last 59 games following an ATS loss.  Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Plays against home underdogs (Minnesota) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that's off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS since 1996.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State MWC No-Brainer on New Mexico +8

New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Lobos are 15-2 this season with their two losses coming by 7 and 4 points.  So they haven't lost by 8-plus points this season, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.

San Diego State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  The Aztecs are 13-3 SU but just 4-10-1 ATS in lined games.  And this will be one of their stiffest tests of the season tonight.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* Chargers/Jaguars AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Jacksonville +2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars have all the momentum heading into the playoffs.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games overall and needed every single victory just to get into the playoffs.  Teams that come into the playoffs with momentum are dangerous teams.

That explains why Brandon Staley played his starters for so long with Herbert and Allen still in the game well into the 4th quarter against the Broncos last week.  But they fell short 28-31, which ended their four-game winning streak.  They put a lot into that game to try and win it, and it proved costly as two of their best players in DE Bosa and WR Williams left the field with injuries.  Bosa is good to go this week even if hobbled, but Williams was carted off with a back injury and is very questionable.

The key to the Chargers' turnaround down the stretch was getting both WR Williams and WR Allen back on the field healthy.  But without Williams they are much easier to defense because he is such a great deep ball threat, and a great jump ball receiver in red zone opportunities.  I have no doubt head coach Staley regrets his decision to play the starters in a meaningless Week 18 game.

The Jaguars have a big rest advantage here as they beat the Titans on Saturday last week, so they will be on normal rest.  The Chargers played on Sunday and will now be on a short week with travel having to fly down to Jacksonville.  The edge in rest and preparation goes to the Jaguars, and the coaching edge certainly goes to the Jaguars as well.  Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS as a head coach in the playoffs guiding the Eagles to a Super Bowl win even with Nick Foles.  Staley will be making his first playoff appearance as a head coach, as well most of their players.

A lot of people want to throw out that first meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers this season because Herbert was coming back from injury, and they didn't have Williams or Allen.  Those are fair points.  But the Jaguars beat them 38-10 and totally dominated.  Trevor Lawrence went 28-of-39 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks.  They rushed for 151 yards as a team.  They held the Chargers to just 312 total yards despite playing come from behind style football.

A lot is being made of this QB battle between Lawrence and Herbert, but I think a key factor is that the Jaguars are going to be able to run the football while the Chargers are not.  That will make life much easier on Lawrence and much more difficult on Herbert.  Lawrence has been great down the stretch with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is living up to his full potential under Pederson.

The Chargers rank 28th against the run allowing 145.8 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 5.4 yards per carry.  The Jaguars rank 12th against the run at 114.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per carry.  Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 1,125 yards and 5.1 per carry this season, is going to have a monster game to lead the way.  I trust Pederson to stick to the run knowing this is his greatest advantage in this game.

The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here given all the factors working in Jacksonville's favor, including momentum, rushing, coaching and rest and preparation advantages.  Roll with the Jaguars Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

This is a great spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers and a terrible one for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Cavaliers had yesterday off and conclude their five-game road trip tonight.  They want to end the trip with a win, and I expect it to come in blowout fashion.

The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a close 121-116 win over the Suns last night.  All five starters played at least 31 minutes for the Timberwolves, who are short-handed as it is.  Don't be surprise if they rest a player or two tonight.

The Timberwolves have played the Rockets, Pistons and depleted Suns in their last three games.  This is a big step up in class for them, and they weren't impressive in any of those three games, even losing to the Pistons outright by 17.  The Cavs are legitimately one of the best teams in the NBA and are fully healthy right now.

The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Plays against home underdogs (Minnesota) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win scoring 110 or more points are 85-43 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado +12

This line is inflated tonight.  UCLA is getting too much respect for its current 12-game winning streak, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bruins.  They now take on a game Colorado team that doesn't get blown out.

Colorado is 11-7 this season with just one loss by more than 10 points, which was a 13-point defeat.  So they have only lost by this kind of margin once in 18 games this season, making for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this 12-point spread.

Each of the last six meetings between Colorado and UCLA were decided by 12 points or less, including five by single-digits.  Colorado hasn't lost any of its last 10 meetings with UCLA by more than 12 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this 12-point spread.  Take Colorado Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2.5

The Drake Bulldogs are showing great value as short home favorites over the Bradley Braves tonight.  This is a night game and it will be a great atmosphere and an even bigger home-court advantage for the Bulldogs than normal.  Drake is 8-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 22.1 points per game.

Bradley is coming off three straight poor performances on the road.  They lost by 9 at Murray State as 5.5-point favorites, lost by 3 at Belmont as 1-point favorites and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 2 as 6-point favorites in their last three true road games.  This is a much stiffer test for the Braves than any of those three games were.

Bradley is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Braves are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Drake Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Hornets OVER 231

The OVER is 4-1 in Hornets last five games overall.  They have combined for at least 227 points with their opponents in eight consecutive games, including 234 or more in six of those.  This 231-point total has been set too low for a game involving the Hornets.

Now they are up against an elite offensive team in the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring 118.4 points per game on the season.  The Celtics and Hornets combined for 245 points in their first and only meeting this season.

The OVER is 11-1-2 in Celtics last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games following a loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

Clemson has gone 14-3 this season and quietly has won 10 of its last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, but they don't get the respect they deserve, which has been evident during their 5-1 ATS run over their last six games.

That continues to be the case as they are basically a PK at home to Duke.  This isn't your father's Blue Devils without Coach K.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall as it consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers due to the name on the uniform.  That includes outright losses at Wake Forest by 11 and at NC State by 24 despite being favored, plus a 1-point win at Boston College in its last three road games coming in.

Clemson is 9-0 SU at home this season.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Tigers tonight.  Roll with Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 43

There is a flood watch in Santa Clara on Saturday with a 100% chance of rain and 30-40 MPH winds in the morning.  It is expected to clear out a little by game time, but it's likely going to be a sloppy field worst case.  We don't need the weather help to cash this UNDER, but it's certainly a bonus.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these division rivals.  The 49ers won 27-7 for 34 combined points in the first meeting.  Seattle's only score came on a blocked FG return TD.  The 49ers won 21-13 in the 2nd meeting for 34 combined points again.  Seattle's lone TD came in garbage time trailing 21-6 with under four minutes to play.

So this Seattle offense has only scored one TD in eight quarters against this elite 49ers defense this season, and it came in garbage time of a blowout.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 4th at 5.0 yards per play.  Nothing is going to come easy for Seattle, which has average just 246.5 yards per game in two meetings with the 49ers this season.

Seattle's defense has been playing much better down the stretch.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 16.8 points per game in their last four games, which is impressive when you consider they faced the 49ers and Chiefs during this stretch.  They held the Chiefs to just 297 total yards, the Jets to 279 total yards and the Rams to 269 total yards in their last three games heading into the playoffs.  But Seattle is scoring just 16.3 points per game in its last four games overall as well.

Wild Card Round UNDERS are 27-11 dating back to 2012.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in 49ers last four playoff games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

BONUS FREE NFL TEASERS:

7-Point Teaser: 49ers -2.5/Bengals -2.5 or better

6-Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5/Bucs +8.5

20* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing as well as almost anyone in the country right now.  They upset Baylor by 15 as 2-point home dogs, upset Oklahoma by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, upset TCU by 2 as 5.5-point road dogs and blasted Texas Tech by 34 as 4.5-point home favorites in their last four games.

Now they take on a Kansas team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers at home of late due to their current 9-game winning streak.  But they nearly lost their last two home games, beating Oklahoma State by 2 as 10-point favorites and Oklahoma by 4 as 10.5-point home favorites.  They needed some late heroics to win both those games, and they are going to need some late heroics to survive the Cyclones today, too.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine January home games.  The Jayhawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +13

The Louisville Cardinals have been a great bet over the last couple weeks due to their 2-15 record.  But they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 13 points or fewer during this stretch.

In fact, the Cardinals have just one loss by more than 13 points in their last eight games, which was at Kentucky in a game they covered.  Now they are catching 13 points at home to a North Carolina team that could be without their best player in Armando Bacot (17.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG), who left the Virginia game with an ankle injury last time out and it changed the game.  Virginia went on a big run thereafter and won 65-58.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Louisville) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a team that wins less than 20% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Tar Heels are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on North Texas +4

North Texas lost 46-50 at home to Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite in their first meeting this season on December 29th.  It's revenge time for the Mean Green today as they are now 4-point road underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect the Mean Green to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

North Texas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 conference road games.  The Mean Green are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The Mean Green are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 road games.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (North Texas) - revenging a loss as a home favorite against an opponent that's off two consecutive conference wins by 5 points or less are 72-32 (69.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Owls' luck runs out today following four consecutive wins by 4 points or fewer coming in.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5

Tulane is playing its best basketball of the season right now and should be a bigger favorite at home here against UCF.  The Green Wave are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with an upset home win over Memphis by 7 as 4-point dogs, a blowout win over Tulsa by 16, an upset road win at Temple by 11 and a solid 9-point win at SMU.

Now they host a UCF team in a clear letdown spot off a double-OT win over Memphis at home on Wednesday.  G Darius Johnson (11.8 PPG, 4.3 APG) is questionable after sitting out that Memphis game and F Michael Durr (4.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is out for the Knights.

The Knights are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Green Wave beat the Knights 82-67 at home last season.  UCF is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following two consecutive conference games.  The Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 80 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They lost six consecutive games before a 113-101 home win over the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday.  I backed the Clippers in that win and cover against the Mavericks, and I'm back on them again tonight.

The Clippers come in on two days' rest so they are ready to go.  They will be without Paul George and Luke Kennard again, but the key for them is having Kawhi Leonard healthy and in the lineup.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can make up for the losses of George and Kennard as long as Kawhi is healthy.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  But they could be without Nikola Jokic, who is questionable tonight with a wrist injury.  I like the Clippers either way because they will be pissed off and out for revenge for one of their worst losses of the season at Denver on January 5th just eight days ago.

Denver is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockets/Kings OVER 235

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined for 237, 270, 247 and 250 points in their last four games overall.  The Kings rank 5th in pace, 3rd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Houston Rockets will have no problem getting up and down with the Kings and playing little defense tonight.  The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency.  Only the Spurs and Pistons have been worse.

The Kings and Rockets have combined for 230 or more points in each of their last six meetings, including 239 or more points in four of those.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The OVER is 5-1 in Kings last six home games.  Sacramento is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Kings last 10 games vs. a terrible team that wins less than 25% of their games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Jazz OVER 232.5

The Orlando Magic are 7-4 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They have combined for 232 or more points in seven of those 11 games.  They have gotten healthy and gotten everyone back from suspension, making them a very good offensive team but they still rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team because they play fast, rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games.  The Jazz are scoring 120.9 points per game and allowing 116.1 points per game at home this season.

The OVER is 8-0 in Magic last eight games following a close win by 3 points or less.  The OVER is 49-24-3 in Magic last 76 games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +6

The Orlando Magic just got a bunch of players back from suspension and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They pulled off two big upsets in two of their last three road games winning 115-101 at Golden State as 6.5-point dogs and 109-106 at Portland as 8-point dogs even on the second of a back-to-back.

Now the Magic have had the last two days off and are rested and ready to go, which is key going into the altitude in Utah.  I expect them to pull off this upset as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Jazz cannot be trusted to lay this many points when they rank just 26th in defensive efficiency.  They allow 116.1 points per game at home this season, and the Magic will never be out of this game because of it.  

The Jazz are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, including 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly covered five straight while also going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have only lost one of their last eight games by more than 8 points.  Now they are catching 9.5 points at home tonight against the Golden State Warriors, which is too much.

The Warriors are getting unwarranted respect from oddsmakers due to Steph Curry just returning to the lineup.  They promptly lost 125-113 as 12-point home favorites to the Phoenix Suns, who were without five key players in their first game with Curry.  Now they are laying 9.5 points on the road in their 2nd game with Curry to a Spurs team that would beat the Suns right now.

Four of the last five meetings between the Warriors and Spurs were decided by 6 points or fewer.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Warriors are 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS on the road this season.  Roll with the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Pistons OVER 233.5

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team, especially at home.  The Pistons are 27-17-1 OVER in all games this season, including 14-5-1 at home.  They rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and rank in the top half of the league in pace.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for 230 or more points in six consecutive games, including 234 or more in five of them.

The New Orleans Pelicans are also 25-17 OVER in their 42 games this season to make them a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in pace and 6th in offensive efficiency.  They continue to get their points even without Zion and Ingram.  They have gone for 244, 244 and 239 combined points in their last three games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Pelicans last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 11-4 in Pelicans last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in Pistons last 22 home games.  The OVER is 10-1 in Pistons last 11 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  New Orleans is 15-5 OVER in road games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Butler UNDER 134

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 332nd in adjusted tempo and play at a snail's pace.  They have really struggled on offense this season scoring just 71.1 PPG on 43.5% shooting.  But they still lock it down defensively holding opponents to 43.6% shooting.

Butler also likes to slow it down ranking 216th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They are a great defensive team ranking 52nd in adjusted defense, allowing just 43.2% shooting on the season.  They also struggle on offense, scoring 69.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting.

Both teams are coming off consecutive losses which will add to their motivation tonight, and that extra hard play will show up on defense more than on offense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Butler's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Villanova's last seven games overall.  Butler is 7-1 UNDER vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +12.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the UCLA Bruins tonight.  They have won 11 consecutive games coming in but have had a couple lackluster efforts of late that will bleed into tonight.  Three games ago they beat Washington State by 1 as 8.5-point road favorites, and last time out they only beat USC by 2 as 11-point home favorites to barely keep this streak alive.

Now they face an underrated Utah Utes team tonight that is a sleeper in the Pac-12 this season.  The Utes are 12-5 this season with their five losses all coming by 10 points or fewer.  They haven't lost by this kind of margin all season, and asking the Bruins to win by 13 points or more tonight to beat us is asking too much.

Utah has done its best work on the road this season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright upsets with the only loss coming at BYU.  The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, while the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

20* Mavs/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only game they lost during this stretch was without LeBron James on the road to the Denver Nuggets.

James returns to the lineup tonight as the Lakers come in on two days' rest.  They will be rested and ready to go and looking for revenge from a 115-124 road loss at Dallas on Christmas Day where they blew a 20-plus point lead.  Troy Brown is also expected back for the Lakers tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 14-26-2 ATS this season.  They are without Kleber and Finney-Smith and could be without Powell, who is questionable with a hip injury suffered in a 101-113 road loss to the Clippers last time out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight.

Dallas is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on two days' rest.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Marymount +14

Loyola-Marymount is 12-6 this season with all six loses coming by 16 points or fewer.  This 14-point spread is too high tonight when you look at the recent head-to-head series between Loyola-Marymount and St. Mary's.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.

Loyola-Marymount is a perfect 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss this season.  St. Mary's is 24-43 ATS in its last 67 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Loyola-Marymount is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockets/Kings OVER 237.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined for 237, 270 and 247 points in their last three games overall.  The Kings rank 7th in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Houston Rockets will have no problem getting up and down with the Kings and playing little defense tonight.  The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency.  Only the Spurs and Pistons have been worse.

The Kings and Rockets have combined for 230 or more points in each of their last five meetings, including 239 or more points in three of those.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kings last five home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +17.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Clemson Tigers.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are coming off two consecutive upset road wins at VA Tech by 3 and Pitt by 1.  They have a home game against Duke on deck Saturday and will be looking ahead to that game.  That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot for the Tigers, and I don't think they'll be motivated enough to beat Louisville by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cardinals as they have quietly gone 4-0 ATS in thier last four games overall.  They only lost by 12 at NC State as 17.5-point dogs, by 23 as Kentucky as 23.5-point dogs, by 1 to Syracuse as 9-point dogs and by 8 to Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs.  They have been very competitive in ACC play and will continue to be tonight at Clemson.

Louisville is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  Clemson is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Clemson) - following three consecutive conference wins against an opponent that's off two or more consecutive home losses are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisville Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +13.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly covered four straight and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a 113-121 loss at Memphis as 12-point dogs on Monday.  Now the Spurs get their shot at revenge as 13.5-point road dogs in the rematch here two days later on Wednesday.

The Grizzlies won't be that motivated to beat the Spurs again after just beating them on Monday.  They certainly won't be motivated enough to put them away by 14-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games when revenging a road loss.  Memphis is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that allow 50% shooting or higher.  Each of the last seven meetings between Memphis and San Antonio were decided by 13 points or fewer, including five by 8 points or fewer.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +5

The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 on the road at Philadelphia in overtime.  The Pacers come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest.

The New York Knicks are 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their four wins coming against the Rockets, the short-handed Suns, the Spurs (by 3) and the Raptors (by 4).  They have no business being 5-point favorite against a team playing as well as the Pacers right now.

Indiana is 8-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 9-1 ATS after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games this season.  New York is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games after playing a home game.

Plays on road underdogs (Indiana) - revenging a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Knicks OVER 227

This is a very low total for any game involving the Indiana Pacers.  The OVER is 5-2 in Pacers last seven games overall with combined scores of 227 or more points in six of the seven games, including 236 or more in five of them.

The OVER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 games overall.  The Knicks and their opponents have combined for at least 226 points in six of those 11 games.  There's a good chance the Knicks get RJ Barrett back from injury tonight and would be fully healthy.

Indiana is 32-13 OVER in its last 45 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The OVER is 7-2 in Knicks last nine games when playing on one day of rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -2

Penn State is 8-1 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite over Indiana tonight.  The Nittany Lions come in motivated after back-to-back losses at Michigan and on a neutral to Purdue.

They face a team they should handle tonight in the Indiana Hoosiers, who continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Hoosiers are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two wins both coming at home over Elon and Kennesaw State.  They also lost at home to Northwestern, at Iowa, at Kansas by 22 and on a neutral to Arizona by 14.

A big reason for Indiana's recent struggles is due to losing two key players in Xavier Johnson (9.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 37% 3-pointers) and Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to injury.  That is putting too much pressure on Jackson-Davis' shoulders, and teams can just focus in on double-teaming him and trying to make others beat them, which the Hoosiers don't have the guns to do.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following a conference loss.  Indiana is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Alabama/Arkansas UNDER 153.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight when Arkansas and Alabama get together.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in the country in adjusted defense, while the Razorbacks rank 9th in adjusted defense.  This total is way too high given how both teams get after it defensively.

Alabama's last four games have seen 148, 145, 146 and 130 combined points.  Arkansas' last five games have seen 133, 136, 117, 142 and 131 combined points.  The UNDER has gone 8-1 in those nine games combined.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 149 or fewer points in all three.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Arkansas' eight home games this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +9.5

Nevada has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 14-3 SU & 11-4-1 ATS this season and continue to be undervalued catching 9.5 points tonight at San Diego State.

San Diego State is 12-3 SU but just 4-10 ATS in lined games and has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Asking them to beat Nevada by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Amazingly, each of the last six meetings between Nevada and San Diego State have been decided by 7 points or less, so that fact alone is giving us tremendous value on the Wolf Pack.  Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Aztecs.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Wolf Pack are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Nevada is 64-30-3 ATS in its last 97 games following an ATS win.  San Diego State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Nevada is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Wolf Pack are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Take Nevada Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low' opportunity on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have played seven of their last nine games on the road but are back home here.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are just 14-25-2 ATS on the season and are once again getting too much respect here.  Luka Doncic sat out last game with an ankle injury and won't be 100% if he plays tonight.  The Mavericks are also without Finney-Smith and Kleber.

Yes, the Clippers are without Paul George and Luke Kennard, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and can overcome it.  The key with them is having Kawhi Leonard healthy, which he is right now.  They have nine players averaging at least 8.2 points per game this season and that doesn't even include Batum and Covington, who do a little bet of everything for them.

The Mavericks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Dallas is 2-11 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

Donovan Mitchell makes his return to Utah tonight and I expect a big game from him and the Jazz.  The Cavaliers already beat the Jazz 122-99 at home earlier this season in a dominant effort.  It will be more of the same tonight.

The Cavaliers are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  The key has been keeping Mitchell (28.8 PPG) and Darius Garland (21.4 PPG, 7.8 APG) on the floor at the same time.  Mobley and Allen have both missed games as well but all four are healthy right now.  This is about as good of a starting 5 as you will find in the NBA.

The Jazz are without Collin Sexton (14.1 PPG) and Kelly Olynyk (12.2 PPG) right now.  The Jazz are a good offensive team, but the difference between these teams is defense.  The Cavaliers rank 1st in defensive efficiency this season, while the Jazz rank 26th.  I'll gladly back the healthier, better defensive team tonight laying the short number.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* UNC/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +4.5

Virginia has been grossly overvalued since beaten both Illinois and Baylor early in the season.  It turns out Baylor and Illinois both aren't very good.  And the Cavaliers aren't very good, either as they have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

North Carolina has been undervalued since a poor start to the season and a four-game losing streak to Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech.  They have gotten healthy since and are playing some great basketball, going 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points.

UNC crushed Virginia in both meetings last season winning by 16 at home and by 20 on a neutral.  Virginia is 2-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Kansas Jayhawks.  They have gone 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are coming off consecutive road wins over Texas Tech and West Virginia, two teams that aren't as good as they get credit for.

Kansas barely survived a 69-67 win over Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites in its last home game, and also failed to covered as 21.5-point favorites in a 14-point win over Harvard in its previous home game.  Now they take on a game Oklahoma team that just doesn't get blown out with their slow it down, defensive mindset.

Oklahoma is 10-5 this season with all five losses by 10 points or fewer, including four losses by 4 points or fewer.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing the Sooners pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Recent head-to-head history also shows this is too many points.  Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Kansas with all five games decided by 7 points or fewer.

Kansas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after attempting 7 or fewer free throws last game.  The Sooners are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs.  Porter Moser is 37-14 ATS as a road dog of 10 or more points as a head coach.  Roll with Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Iowa State UNDER 129

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones rank 294th in adjusted tempo and 12th in adjusted defense this season.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Cyclones last 18 games overall dating back to last season.

Texas Tech ranks 24th in adjusted defense.  The Red Raiders are struggling on offense right now due to injuries.  Batcho (12.4 PPG), Isaacs (11.3 PPG) and Allen (3.7 PPG) are all questionable to play for the Red Raiders tonight.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  These teams met three times last season with combined scores of 98, 113 and 132 points.  This total of 129 is too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Raptors OVER 228.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team and shouldn't have a total below 230.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER 228.5 tonight in this game against the Toronto Raptors.  It's a fully healthy Raptors team that will hang a big number on the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets rank 5th in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.  They allow 118.1 points per game and 48% shooting to their opponents.  They have been a better offensive team since getting La'Melo Ball back from injury and also play with more pace with him in the lineup.

Charlotte is 12-1 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Toronto is 15-5 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 18-8 in Hornets last 26 road games.  The OVER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on LSU +2

LSU is 9-0 at home this season and should not be a home underdog to Florida.  The Tigers just upset Arkansas in their last home game and return home from a two-game trip at Kentucky and Texas A&M highly motivated for a victory after dropping both.

Florida is 1-1 in true road games this season with its lone win at lowly Florida State.  The Gators have been grossly overvalued all season going 8-7 SU as well as 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have no business being road favorites here.

Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gators are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Florida is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kent State -3.5

Kent State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 12-3 SU this season with their three losses all coming on the road to Gonzaga (by 7), Houston (by 5) and College of Charleston (by 2).  Houston and Gonzaga are two of the best teams in the country, while Charleston is 16-1 this season.

The Golden Flashes are home now and take on an overrated Toledo team that sits at 10-5 on the season with losses to Missouri-KC by 12, ECU by 11, George Mason by 7, Marshall by 15 and Ball State by 7.  Those are all way worse losses than what Kent State has.

Kent State is 22-12 SU & 24-10 ATS in its last 34 meetings with Toledo, including 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings.  Toledo is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games.  The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following two or more consecutive wins.

Kent State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  The Golden Flashes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Kent State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Flashes are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Roll with Kent State Tuesday.

20* Magic/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight outright upsets as underdogs.  Bettors just aren't giving this team the credit they deserve, and that continues to be the case tonight with the Magic catching 6 points against the Sacramento Kings.

The Magic just got everyone back from suspension and won outright 115-101 at Golden State as similar 6.5-point dogs.  Now they take on a Sacramento Kings team that has no business laying 6 points to them considering how they are playing of late.

The Kings are 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall with their three wins coming by 1, 1 and 2 points.  So they haven't won any of their last eight games by more than 2 points.  They have been dreadful defensively, which is why it's tough to trust them to lay any points.  They have allowed 112 or more points in 14 consecutive games, including 136 to the Lakers last time out in regulation.

Plays on road underdogs (Orlando) - revenging a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-7 (82.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings beat the Magic 126-123 in their first meeting this season.  This one will go down to the wire as well with the Orlando having an excellent shot to get revenge and pull off the outright upset.  Roll with the Magic Monday.

20* TCU/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on OVER 62.5

We saw a couple shootouts in both College Football Playoff Semifinals.  It should be more of the same in the Championship Game with perfect conditions inside the dome at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles Monday night.

TCU racked up 488 yards in a 51-45 win over Michigan in the semifinals.  If they can score 51 points on Michigan I like their chances of being able to score on Georgia to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.  The Hornets Frogs are scoring 41.1 points per game on the season while averaging 475.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.

Georgia racked up 533 total yards in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the semifinals.  The Bulldogs have one of their best offenses in program history, averaging 39.4 points per game, 495.6 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season.  They should shred a TCU defense that is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they faced against Ohio State and what they face on the regular in the SEC.

Both of these defenses are clearly vulnerable.  TCU just allowed 45 points and 528 yards to Michigan after allowing 31 points and 404 yards to Kansas State.  Georgia just allowed 41 points and 467 yards to Ohio State after allowing 30 points and 549 yards to LSU, including 502 passing.  QB's Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett are both in line for monster games in this one.

Sonny Dykes is 33-13 OVER in non-conference games as a head coach.  The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five bowl games.  Only getting a little over a week to prepare for one another favors the offenses over the defenses.  Bet the OVER in the National Championship Game Monday.

20* Bulls/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on Chicago +8.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching this many points against the Boston Celtics.  The Bulls are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven outright upset victories, including wins over the Nets, 76ers, Bucks, Heat and Knicks during this stretch.

The Boston Celtics are overvalued due to their record and it has played out that way here of late.  They are just 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only beat the Spurs by 5, the Clippers by 6 and lost outright to the Nuggets by 12 and the Thunder by 33 during this stretch.  They will be without Marcus Smart (11.1 PPG, 7.2 APG) tonight.

Chicago clearly matches up well with Boston.  The Bulls are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS against the Celtics in their first three meetings this season.  They won by 18 as 5-point home dogs, only lost by 4 as 7.5-point road dogs and won by 14 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are catching 8.5 points in the 4th and final meeting, which is too much.  

The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Boston. Chicago is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games following an upset win as a home underdogs.  Take the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Pacers OVER 239

The Hornets and Pacers are both dead nuts OVER teams. The Pacers rank 4th in pace while the Hornets rank 6th. The Hornets rank 24th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 23rd.

That makes it no surprise that these teams play in shootouts when they get together. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 238, 284, 224, 239, 245 and 261 points.

The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games. The OVER is 11-2 in Hornets last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of great than .600. The OVER is 38-16-1 in Pacers last 55 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Pacers last six games overall. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

The Dallas Cowboys are technically still alive for the No. 1 seed and the NFC East title.  But the Philadelphia Eagles are 14-point favorites over the New York Giants, who are expected to be resting starters.  They would need the Eagles to lose, and it's just unlikely to happen and they know it.  Expect the Cowboys to maybe try for a quarter or two, but to pull their starters in the second half.

Either way, the Washington Commanders are capable of hanging with the Cowboys even if they were to play all their starters for four quarters.  The Cowboys are getting getting too much respect for their 6-1 run to close out the season.  The run has come against the Giants, Colts, Texans and Eagles at home as well as the Titans on the road.  

The Titans were playing their backups last week in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter, the Eagles should have beaten them even with Gardner Minshew, and the Cowboys needed a last-second TD to beat the Texans in three of their last four games, while also losing outright at Jacksonville in between.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Commanders after going 0-3-1 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall against a brutal schedule of the Giants (twice), 49ers and Browns.  They were competitive in all four games.  They outgained the Giants by 99 yards in a tie, outgained the Giants by 95 yards ina. loss, were only outgained by 22 yards by the 49ers in a misleading final, and were only outgained by 41 yards by the Browns in a misleading final.

Carson Wentz returned to the field and promptly threw 3 interceptions to cost them the game against the Browns last week.  So getting Sam Howell at QB or a mix of him and Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade.  Howell could give this offense a spark, and he won't stop coming for four quarters.  The Commanders won't lay down for the Cowboys as these are their hated rivals.  They will try to win this game, and it should be enough to stay inside this inflated number Sunday.

The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine January games.  Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Roll with the Commanders Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Pistons OVER 229.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have to go small ball without Joel Embiid. They are also without their best defender in PJ Tucker right now, making them a dead nuts OVER team.

The 76ers and their opponents have combined for 227 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall, including 231 or more points in six of those. The Pistons have been a dead nuts OVER team themselves of late combining for 230 or more points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.

The OVER is 26-9 in 76ers last 35 games as road favorites. The OVER is 7-1 in 76ers last eight games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 7-2 in Pistons last nine home games. The OVER is 7-1 in Pistons last eight Sunday games. The OVER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings. The OVER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in Detroit. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Houston/Cincinnati UNDER 135

The recent head-to-head history between Cincinnati and Houston indicates this total has been set too high. They have combined for 125, 128, 138, 135, 132, 123, 126 and 126 points in their last eight meetings.

As you can see, they have combined for 135 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They played each other three times last season, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDE team ranking 342nd in adjusted tempo and 2nd in defensive efficiency. The UNDER is 43-20 in Bearcats last 63 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Cougars last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +10

The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are ready to give Houston a run for its money.

The Cougars are coming off a blowout home win over SMU that has them overvalued. They had previously only beaten UCF by 6 as 15-point home favorites. This will only be their 3rd true road game this season. They won by 10 at Oregon and by 8 at Virginia, and I think Cincinnati can stay within single-digits of them, if not pull off the upset.

The Bearcats are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games and will have a huge home-court advantage today with Houston coming to town. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

Mike Tomlin has never finished worth than .500 in his career as a head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  These players take on his mentality and have dug themselves out of a hole to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  With a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins on Sunday, the Steelers will be going to the playoffs.  Both the Patriots and Dolphins are underdogs in their games.

This turnaround has happened since TJ Watt returned from injury.  Pittsburgh is 58-26-2 with Watt and 1-10 without him in his career.  The Steelers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Ravens 14-16 after committing three turnovers in the red zone.  They deserved to win that game, too.  They have also beat the Colts, Falcons and Panthers on the road as well as the Raiders at home.

Watt and this Pittsburgh defense aren't allowing anything.  They have held their last six opponents all to 17 points or fewer and an average of just 14.7 points and 259.2 yards per game in those six games.  The last three games have been mighty impressive as they outgained the Panthers by 116 yards and held them to 209 yards, outgained the Raiders by 149 yards and held them to 201 yards and outgained the Ravens by 111 yards and held them to 240 yards.

Kenny Pickett is proving he was deserving as the pick to become their franchise quarterback.  He has delivered two clutch game-winning drives the last two weeks and is his confidence is growing because of it, and so is the confidence his teammates have in him.  Pickett is taking care of the football, too.  He has thrown just one interception in his last six starts.

The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect for their upset win at Washington last week.  Carson Wentz gave that game away by throwing three interceptions.  Deshaun Watson only had nine completions in the win and has been worse than Jacoby Brissett.  Watson is completing just 56.7% of his passes for 872 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt in his five starts this season.

The key matchup here is that the Steelers are going to control this game by running the football at will against a soft Cleveland run defense.  The Steelers have rushed for at least 102 yards in seven of their last eight games overall as they are riding Najee Harris.  The Browns rank 25th against the run allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 25th allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing its 2nd consecutive road game.  Kevin Stefanski is 3-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of the Browns.  The Browns are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games v. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Browns.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Miami Dolphins.  They have gone 0-5 in their last five games overall with each of their last four losses coming by one score.  They were in a one-score game with the 49ers as well in the 4th quarter in a misleading loss.  So they easily could have won any of their last five games.

The Dolphins definitely should have won their last two games as they outgained the Packers by 75 yards in a loss and outgained the Patriots by 84 yards in a loss.  But Tua threw three interceptions after getting concussed against the Packers, and Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six against the Patriots that changed the game and knocked him out of the game on the same play.

The Dolphins will likely go to third-string QB Skylar Thompson for this one, and this line is being adjusted too much because of it.  Thompson has gotten his feet wet in a few games already this season and has handled himself well.  Giving him an entire week to prepare to be the starter will pay big dividends for him.  He is ready for this moment.

Let's just look at this from a motivation perspective.  The Dolphins still have a great chance to make the playoffs because a win and a loss by the Patriots gets them in.  Well, the Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Buffalo Bills as of this writing.  The Bills need that game to secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, so they won't make it easy on the Patriots.  I would say the Dolphins are actually the favorites to get the final wild card spot in the AFC given the scenarios.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 23-6 loss at Seattle last week.  That followed up a 19-3 home loss to Jacksonville.  I always like fading teams coming off their 'dream crusher' loss because they have a hard time getting back up off the mat.  The Jets will have a hard time being motivated for this game after just getting eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.

Plays on home teams (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Jets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East opponents.  Miami is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Dolphins are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.  

This is also a tough travel spot for the Jets having to come fly home to New York from Seattle to fly back out to Miami to play a game where the temps will be approaching 80 degrees, and I expect the Jets to run out of gas by the 4th quarter.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio State/Maryland UNDER 140.5

Both Ohio State and Maryland will be motivated for wins today as both are coming off losses. I think that will have their defensive intensity high, and we'll take advantage by backing the UNDER.

Ohio State ranks 233rd in the country in adjusted tempo and 77th in adjusted defense. Maryland ranks 222nd in adjusted tempo and 32nd in adjusted defense. So both teams play slow, and both get after it defensively. Maryland has been held to 46 and 50 points in consecutive losses.

Maryland is 11-4 UNDER in all games this season. The UNDER is 10-1 in Maryland's last 11 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Northwestern/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6.5

The Northwestern Wildcats have a great chance to upset the Indiana Hoosiers today. They are 11-3 overall including 6-1 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over both Michigan State by 7 on the road and Illinois by 13 at home.

Indiana is 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. A big reason for the Hoosiers' struggles is playing without Xavier Johnson (11.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.4 RPG) during this stretch. Now they are without Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) as well.

Northwestern is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Bet Northwestern Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Warriors OVER 231.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They just combined for 241 points at the end of regulation with the Pistons last time out and 242 points with the Hawks the game prior. They have scored at least 110 points in seven consecutive games.

Now they take on an Orlando Magic team that is also a dead nuts OVER team and just got a lot of key guys back from suspension. The Magic just combined for 238 points with the Grizzlies after combining for 241 points with the Thunder the game prior. They have allowed 110 or more points in eight consecutive games, and scored 110 or more in six of those eight.

The Magic and Warriors squared off back on November with the Magic winning 130-129 for 259 combined points at the end of regulation. The OVER is 6-2 in Magic last eight games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Magic last five Saturday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset win at Philadelphia last night. All five starters played at least 32 minutes for the Bulls, including 38 from LaVine, 37 from DeRozan and 36 from Vucevic. 

Not only will it be the 2nd of a back-top-back for the Bulls, but it will also be their 6th game in 9 days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Utah Jazz tonight, and this is now a letdown spot for them after upsetting both the 76ers and Nets in their last two games.

They Jazz are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. They are coming off a 17-point blowout win at Houston. They should not be underdogs in this game given the favorable situation for them tonight.

Utah is 16-6 ATS as underdogs this season. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win by more than 10 points. Take the Jazz Saturday.

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Las Vegas Raiders +7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to beat the Chiefs and keep them from a first-round bye and home-field advantage.  They hate the Chiefs and only lost 29-30 at Kansas City as 7.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 7.5-point home dogs in the rematch, so they haven't even adjusted for home-field advantage.

They are clearly adjusting too much for the Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.  Stidham played under Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, so he knows the system.  And the Raiders had their best offensive performance of the season last week with Stidham at quarterback.

The Raiders racked up 34 points and 500 total yards against the best defense in the NFL in the 49ers.  Stidham went 23-of-34 passing for 365 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  He made good use of his top two weapons in DeVante Adams and Darren Waller.  Adams had seven receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns, while Waller had three receptions for 72 yards and a score.  The Raiders have the firepower to keep up with the Chiefs as they showed in that first meeting, and last week against the 49ers.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That's why they have only covered the spread in four of their 16 games this season.  They just let the lowly Broncos hang around last week in a 27-24 home win as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a Broncos team that was coming off a 51-14 loss to the Rams the previous week.  Plus, all the pressure is on the Chiefs to get the win for the No. 1 seed, so the Raiders will kind of be free rolling here and playing more freely than the Chiefs.

Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC West opponents.  The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  These six trends coming for a mind-blowing 36-1 system backing Las Vegas.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

15* Heat/Suns ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1

The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games overall.  I like the fact that they are coming off an upset loss to the Lakers because they will come back motivated tonight and not take the Suns lightly.

The Suns are going through their worst stretch of the season due to injuries.  They are playing without Devin Booker (27.1 PPG, 5.6 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG).  Chris Paul is too old to carry this team any longer, and they just aren't very good without those three.  They have been held to 83 and 88 points in their last two games.

The Suns are now 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall with losses by 25, 25 and 19 points during this stretch.  They are coming off a six-game road trip, and I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip.  They have a lot of distractions to deal with back at home and not much time to do it with only one day off in between games.  They haven't been home since December 23rd before Christmas.

The Suns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Heat are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Phoenix.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following four or more consecutive road games.  Phoenix is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 90 points or fewer.  Take the Heat Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were down by nearly 40 points in the 1st half against the Nuggets last night and as a result didn't play their starters in the 2nd half.  Plus, they had two days off prior to the Denver game.

All five starters played 18 minutes or fewer, meaning they should still be fresh for Minnesota and should still have all hands on deck.  It also means the Clippers will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed on National TV last night.  I fully expect them to come back tonight and win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some insurance.

They take on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is not playing well right now, going just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Timberwolves have some injuries that are piling up and still don't have Karl-Anthony Towns back yet.

The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to Minnesota.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Spurs OVER 232.5

Both the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams right now.  Both rank in the top half of the league in pace and these are the two worst defensive teams in the entire NBA.  The Spurs rank 30th in defensive efficiency while the Pistons rank 29th.

The OVER is 9-0 in Spurs last nine games overall with combined scores of 229 or more points in all nine games, and 237 or more combined points in seven of those.  They have allowed 115 or more points in eight consecutive games.

The OVER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 games overall.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 235 or more points in 10 of those 13 games, so this 232.5-point total is very short considering how these two teams have been playing of late.

Detroit is 7-0 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season with an average of 250.3 combined points in those seven games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pistons last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 12-1 in Spurs last 13 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Pacers OVER 231.5

The OVER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games overall.  They have combined for 243, 261, 261, 236 and 240 points at the end of regulation in their last five games, respectively.  This total is way too short tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for 227 or more points in four of their last five games coming in.  The Blazers have scored at least 116 points in nine of their last 15 games overall and are an elite offensive team.  They have also allowed at least 111 points in 18 of their last 22 games overall.

Indiana is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after winning three of its last four games this season.  The OVER is 38-15-1 in Pacers last 54 home games overall.  The Pacers rank 6th in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/76ers OVER 227.5

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Joel Embiid tonight but that actually makes them a better OVER team.  It means that they have to go smaller and it takes away from them defensively more than anything.  They still have plenty of scorers in Harden, Maxey, Harris and company to hang a big number on offense, but they will also give up a big number on defense.

The 76ers just beat the Pacers 129-126 (OT) in a game that saw 240 combined points at the end of regulation without Embiid.  They are really hitting on all cylinders on offense scoring at least 11 points in eight consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall.

The Bulls are also thriving offensively right now and embracing the up-tempo style.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall with the OVER 5-2 in their last seven games.  They have allowed 112 or more points in six of their last seven games overall as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Celtics/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Denver and Oklahoma City.  That includes their worst loss of the season at OKC by a final of 117-150 despite being 11.5-point favorites.  Now we get them at a great value as only 2-point favorites at Dallas, and they are rested and ready to go playing only their 3rd game in 7 days.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Celtics off that blowout loss, it's time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks who have won seven consecutive games against a soft schedule.  Three of those wins came against Houston, while the other four came against Minnesota, LA Lakers, New York and San Antonio.  Their winning streak comes to an end tonight against the best team they have faced in a long time.

Plays on road favorites (Boston) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Mavericks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win.  Dallas is 10-22-2 ATS in its last 34 games overall.  The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Dallas.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK in Grizzlies/Magic OVER 226.5

The Orlando Magic had scored 110 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall before playing the Pistons and getting into a brawl.  Several players were ejected and suspended, but they get several of them back last night and get more back tonight.

The Magic just beat the Thunder 126-115 last night for 241 combined points.  The Magic have allowed 110 or more points in seven consecutive games and 119 or more in four of those.  They are allowing an average of 115.4 points per game at home this season.

The Grizzlies have scored at least 116 points in four consecutive games and 114 or more in 15 of their last 21 games overall.  Memphis is allowing 114.9 points per game on the road this season.  This is a very low total for how both of these teams are playing right now.

The Grizzlies are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 road games following a road win by 10 points or more.  The Magic are 11-2 OVER in non-conference games this season.  Plays on the OVER when the total is 210 or higher (Orlando) - playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Purdue/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Purdue Boilermakers just had their perfect 13-0 record go away with a 64-65 home loss to Rutgers last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak come to an end because there tends to be a hangover effect.  And this is a brutal spot for the Boilermakers tonight.

They now have to travel to face an Ohio State team that is 10-3 this season and playing well, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 34, 31 and 16 points.  The Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game.  They basically just have to win this game to cover tonight.

The Boilermakers have been one of the most overrated teams in the country dating back to last season, going 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Purdue is 2-12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Boilermakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Bulls OVER 235

No team is hotter offensively right now than the Brooklyn Nets.  They have scored 118 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games during their current 12-game winning streak.  Now they'll be up against a Bulls team that is allowing 122.4 points per game in their last five games and 115.6 points per game overall this season.

The Bulls are hot offensively themselves right now.  They have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall and have embraced the up-tempo style.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulls last six games overall as a result.   Five of those six games saw 232 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois ML -115

Drake has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  They are 11-4 SU but just 4-9-1 ATS.  The Bulldogs have been terrible in true road games, going 0-4 SU with losses at Indiana State, Richmond, Saint Louis and Missouri State.

Southern Illinois has won six straight coming in and has a tremendous home-court advantage.  The Salukis are 6-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Indiana State by 3.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game at home this season.

Southern Illinois has had this game circled all offseason.  They have triple-revenge in mind after losing all three meetings with Drake last season, including losses by 1 and 2 points in the regular season before getting knocked out of the MVC Tournament by the Bulldogs.  They get their revenge in their first meeting in 2022-23.

The Bulldogs are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers OVER 231.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are fully healthy right now and loaded on offense.  They have scored at least 111 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall including 118 or more seven of those games.  They face a Pacers team that allows 115.8 points per game on the season.

The Pacers are a great OVER team because they rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with combined scores of 243, 261, 261 and 236 points.  They have scored 122 or more points in all four games and have now scored at least 111 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia.  The OVER is 5-1 in 76ers last six games overall.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Magic OVER 227.5

The Thunder and their opponents have combined for 267, 234, 244 and 253 points in four of their last five games coming in.  They have embraced playing the up-tempo game this season making them a dead nuts OVER team.

The Orlando Magic had scored 110 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall before playing the Pistons and getting into a brawl.  Several players were ejected and suspended, but they get several of them back tonight including Anthony, Harris, Bamba and Carter Jr.  They'll have no problem getting up and down with the Thunder tonight.  The Magic have allowed 110 or more points in six consecutive games and 119 or more in four of those.

The Thunder are 10-2 OVER in non-conference games this season, and 7-0 OVER following two consecutive non-conference games.  The OVER is 40-15-1 in Magic last 56 Wednesday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Michigan UNDER 142

Penn State ranks 275th in adjusted tempo and 63rd in adjusted defense.  Michigan has been playing faster at 115th in adjusted tempo while playing solid D at 72nd in adjusted defense.  This total has way too high when you consider the head-to-head series history.

Michigan and Penn State have combined for 141 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings with the lone exception being 144 points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +6.5

What more does Pittsburgh have to do to start getting some respect from bettors and the books alike?  The Panthers have gone 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming by a single point at Vanderbilt, 74-75 as 3.5-point dogs.

The Panthers have pulled off upsets of UNC as 6.5-point home dogs, Syracuse as 3.5-point road dogs, NC State as 10-point road dogs and Northwestern as 7.5-point road dogs during this stretch.  So it's not like they are beating up on inferior teams.

Now the Panthers are 6.5-point home dogs to a Virginia team that has only played three true road games this season.  They won by 2 at Michigan and lost by 2 at Miami while winning and covering against a bad Georgia Tech team.

The last three meetings between Virginia and Pittsburgh were decided by 1, 5 and 7 points with two of those being at Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers consistently.  Virginia is 14-29-2 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 230

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Bucks and Wizards.  The Wizards beat a depleted Bucks team 118-95 for 213 combined points with a total of 221.5.  Oddsmakers have adjusted this total up too much now for the rematch setting it at 230 because Giannis, Holiday and Hill are supposed to come back.  Those three will provide offense, but they are also upgrades defensively.

Milwaukee ranks 13th in pace this season while Washington ranks 18th, so both are in the middle of the pack.  But both get after it defensively.  The Bucks rank 4th in defensive efficiency while the Wizards rank 11th, making them one of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA.  They have allowed 111 or fewer points in five consecutive games during their current five-game winning streak.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bucks and Wizards with combined scores of 213, 216, 210 and 195 points.  They haven't sniffed 230 combined points in their last four meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Wizards last seven road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Heat/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers following two consecutive road losses to the Celtics and Pacers by a combined 7 points.  Now they are back home tonight and highly motivated for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business against the Miami Heat as they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.

The spot is terrible for the Miami Heat.  They will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and just played in altitude twice in Denver and Utah.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Clippers tonight.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Heat are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and as healthy as they have been all season, showing why they were the preseason title favorites.  I like backing a motivated Clippers team as a short home favorite tonight.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone right now.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to OKC and a loss to a short-handed Warriors team.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

The Pistons are playing well right now upsetting the Magic by 20 as home underdogs and upsetting the Timberwolves by 12 as road underdogs in two of their last three games.  They also played the Bulls to the wire in between, but the Bulls had a huge run late to pull away.  They took the Clippers to OT the game prior, too.

Portland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 3 or less games in 10 days.  The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Pistons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +7.5

The Houston Rockets will be playing with double-revenge tonight.  They lost by 6 to the Mavericks on December 23rd at home and by 15 to the Mavericks on December 29th on the road.  So they will be facing the Mavericks for a 3rd time in 11 days here, and it's clear they will want this win a lot more than the Mavericks will.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets after losing eight of their last nine games, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks after winning six consecutive games.  Five of those six wins came by single-digits, so they have simply been fortunate in close games, including a 1-point win over the Spurs last time out as 7.5-point favorites.

Dallas is 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Dallas is 10-21-2 ATS in its last 33 games overall.  Roll with the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They just upset the Boston Celtics at home last night, making this the perfect letdown spot for them.  Don't be surprised to see them rest some starters given the terrible rest spot.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Timberwolves, who have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They will be rested and motivated after having yesterday off.  The Timberwolves have owned the Nuggets, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 17, 15 and 6 points.

Denver is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive wins.  It is losing by 7.3 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +12.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have won 11 consecutive games and are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They won't be excited at all to face the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and it's exactly the type of team that could end their streak.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their play.  They have quietly gone 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  All six wins came outright as underdogs and they also only lost by 1 to Dallas last time out.

Brooklyn is 12-36 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  The Nets are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Antonio is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Nets OVER 236

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  Well, they are fully healthy right now and have gone 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 251, 237, 244, 248, 246 and 243 points in their last six games overall.  The Spurs have scored at least 112 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.

The Brooklyn Nets are really clicking on offense during their current 11-game winning streak.  They have scored at least 118 points in nine of their last 11 games overall and will get their points against the Spurs, but I expect them to give up a bunch, too.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 223

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, the Bulls and Cavs will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days.  The Cavs won 103-102 in Chicago for just 205 combined points, and it's not like either team shot terrible as the Bulls shot 48% while the Cavs shot 46%.  The books are making a mistake not adjusting this total down further for the familiarity factor.

Also, the Cavaliers will be without PG  Darius Garland (21.4 PPG, 7.8 APG), which is a big loss for them offensively.  They could also be without Evan Mobley (14.5 PPG), who is questionable.  Cleveland ranks dead last (30th) in pace and will control the tempo playing at home.  They also rank 1st in defensive efficiency, making them a dream UNDER team.

Chicago is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 Monday games.  The Bulls and Cavaliers have combined for 226 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, including failing to reach 223 combined points in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hornets OVER 242

I cashed in the Lakers/Hornets OVER on December 23rd in Los Angeles when these teams combined for 264 points in a 134-130 Lakers victory.  Oddsmakers have once again failed to set this number high enough tonight as these are two dead nuts OVER teams.

The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Hornets rank 7th, so both like to get up and down.  All these possessions usually result in buckets for the opponent as the Hornets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency while the Lakers rank 22nd.  The Lakers have scored at least 115 points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

The OVER is 14-2 in Lakers last 16 games vs. Southeast Division opponents, including 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Hornets.  The OVER is 8-1 in Lakers last nine road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about.  Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards.  Both teams are in the four-team playoff.

Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense.  They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games.  Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington.  They have the depth and talent to replace these two.

Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets.  Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing.  Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season.  He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.

Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas.  Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season.  They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC.  Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes.  They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.

The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game.  I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers.  Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages.  Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages.  I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.

Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl.  The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play.  The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.

James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more.  Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5

Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC.  They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either.  Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF.  They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke.  And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion.  They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch.  They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.

While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here.  They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah.  A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.

Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player.  He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running.  Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury.  He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game.  Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games.  He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate.  The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season.  Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.

This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass.  They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.  USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season.  Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.

The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.  USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game.  Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 12 over the Timberwolves, by 21 over the Bucks, by 26 over the Rockets and by 6 over the Clippers.  They are as healthy as they have been all season with Robert Williams back in the lineup, and they are now not only the best offensive team in the NBA, but also one of the best defensive teams with Williams.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets, who have won six of their last seven games against a soft schedule.  They have also been very fortunate in close games during this run with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Their luck runs out tonight against a better, more complete Celtics team that is rested after having the last two days off.

The Celtics simply own the Nuggets, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won six consecutive meetings straight up by 19, 20, 6, 18, 13 and 13 points.  Boston is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 road games.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they have been all season, and to no surprise it has coincided with their best stretch of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to get right back into the playoff hunt.  They need some help, but they are doing their part, and they will want revenge on the Vikings after losing at Minnesota in Week 1.

The Vikings are the most fraudulent 12-3 team in the history of the NFL.  They are 11-0 in one score games this season and have only outscored their opponents by 5 total points on the season.  Their luck runs out this week against a Packers team that wants it more.  After all, the Vikings are locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed basically, which isn't that big of a difference.

While the Packers are outgaining their opponents by 6 yards per game on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by nearly 50 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  That's unheard of for a 12-3 team.  They rank 28th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 31st in total defense at 402.3 yards per game and 31st at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  That's not a championship defense, and the Packers have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since getting all their weapons healthy.

Kirk Cousins has always been worse outdoors and worse in any games that don't start at 1:00 EST on a Sunday.  He does not handle these big stages well.  It's going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon, and home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points for the Packers in this one.  I think they're the better team right now and need it more.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Vikings.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Chargers OVER 40.5

The Los Angeles Chargers blew it in Week 18 last season against the Raiders with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win.  Well, they don't have to worry about that any more as they just clinched a playoff spot over the Colts with a win on Monday Night Football.  I think they will be playing loose and free in this game against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 and that favors their offense.

This Chargers offense has been much better since getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back from injury.  The Chargers have averaged over 370 yards per game in their last three games with these two.  Williams has 14 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last three games since returning from injury, while Allen has 31 receptions for 282 yards in his last three games alongside Williams.

The Rams have been playing loose and free since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback.  And now he has three games under his belt in Sean McVay's system and is clearly getting a lot more comfortable.  That showed last week when the Rams hung 51 points and 388 total yards on a very good Denver defense.  Mayfield had one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  The playbook will be even more open for him this week against the Chargers.

The Rams also finally got their running game going last week with 158 yards to help out Mayfield.  Well, the weakness of this Chargers defense is stopping the run.  They rank 26th in allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and 31st allowing 5.3 yards per carry.  So Mayfield will not have to do it all.  I know the Chargers have been better of late defensively, but they have also benefitted from facing a couple terrible offenses in the Colts and Titans the last two weeks.

I think the fact that the Chargers have gone under the total in four consecutive games is keeping this total way lower than it should be.  Those totals were all 45 or higher.  Now this total is only 40.5, which is a big adjustment and way too big in my opinion.  This total should be closer to 45, especially with the life this Rams offense has showed of late.  And it's not like the Rams have been great defensively as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense and have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  Aaron Donald remains out for the Rams, and the Chargers have a ton of key injuries on defense as well.

The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after a win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rams last six games after a home win by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 7-0 in Rams last seven road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  These four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jets/Seahawks OVER 41.5

Mike White makes his much anticipated return to the lineup for the New York Jets this week.  This offense has been much more efficient with White under center than Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco.  This total against the Seahawks is way too low given that White is playing and the forecast.  It's expected to be 45 degrees with 2 MPH winds and only a 4% chance of precipitation in Seattle Sunday afternoon.

The Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a solid offense and a terrible defense.  The Seahawks rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game, 13th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  This Seattle offense is expected to get Tyler Lockett back from injury this week, and RB Kenneth Walker should be good to go as well.

White put up 31 points and 466 yards against the Bears and 22 points and 486 total yards against the Vikings in his two healthy starts this week.  He will have a big game against this Seattle defense as well.  The Seahawks rank 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, 29th in total defense at 373.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  

No question the Jets have a good defense, but that is being factored into this total too much as this is one of the lowest totals this week.  The Jaguars found plenty of success moving the football against them on the road last week racking up 365 total yards, but they had to settle for four field goals.  The Lions had 359 yards against them the previous week and the Seahawks should find similar success as well.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +4

Cincinnati has benefitted from playing a home-heavy, easy schedule this season.  The Bearcats have played the 281st-ranked schedule and have only played one true road game this season.  They lost outright by 13 at Northern Kentucky as 6.5-point favorites.  

I think they lose outright here too as this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bearcats after going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Seven of those games were at home with a neutral game against lowly Louisville mixed in.

Temple has played the 123rd-ranked schedule, which is nearly 150 spots harder than that of Cincinnati.  It's a Temple team that has beaten the likes of Villanova, Rutgers and VCU this season with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Temple is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Cincinnati with two outright upsets and a 2-point loss as a 6.5-point dog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Temple Sunday.