Winning Sports Picks

 20* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Oakland +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late.  They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -4.5

There is a huge talent gap between Iowa State and Iowa this year.  That's why I fully expect the Cyclones to win their fourth straight meeting with the Hawkeyes, which would be a record for them in this series.  There is certainly no love lost here, and they won't feel badly at all at beating up on a down Hawkeyes squad.

Here's a quote from Iowa State's senior leader Monte Morris. "We want to go in there and make a statement.  Set the tone and send a message both to Iowa and the country.  We're trying to go out there and beat them badly."

The Cyclones boast four senior starters this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their two losses coming to Cincinnati and Gonzaga by a combined 3 points.  I think the loss to Cincinnati a week ago really only helped this team get motivated and focused moving forward.

Following the Cincinnati loss, the Cyclones dominated Nebraska-Omaha 91-47 at home as 18.5-point favorites.  That's important because Iowa lost to Nebraska-Omaha just two nights earlier 89-98 as 11-point home favorites.  That gives these teams a common opponent.

This is a young, inexperienced Hawkeyes team that is still trying to find their way.  They are just 4-5 this season with an 8-point loss to Seton Hall, a 33-point loss to Virginia, and 8-point loss to Memphis, a 14-point loss to Notre Dame and that aforementioned 9-point loss to Nebraska-Omaha.  Their four wins have come against Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UTRGV and Stetson.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games coming in over the past three years.  Iowa State is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

I think we'll see a big effort from the Washington Wizards tonight at home.  They are coming off a bad 116-124 home loss to the Orlando Magic.  I have to give them a little break because it was the 2nd of a back-to-back, but start PG John Wall, who scored 52 points in the loss, wasn't giving his teammates a break after the loss.

"Not even just defensive effort, just playing hard," Wall said. "Our job is to wake up and just play hard. Before you made it to the NBA or got a college scholarship, you played hard to get where you wanted to get to. To still be talking about playing hard. ... That's the easiest thing. Shouldn't have to do with any contracts or any money. Just come in and play basketball."

The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They nearly erased a 29-point deficit in Brooklyn last night, but lost 111-116 in the end.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and I don't see them having much left in the tank here tonight.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers despise the Golden State Warriors.  They will be out to prove that they're contenders in the West, and they'll be more motivated for this game than any other this season.  I think this is a game that they win outright tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost six straight to the Warriors.  But five of those six losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they have been right there with a chance to win in nearly all of those games.  I think they get over the top here tonight.

I like the fact that the Clippers have had two days off coming into this game to prepare for the Warriors.  They will be well-rested and ready to go.  The Warriors come in overvalued after their 142-106 home victory over Indiana on Monday where Klay Thompson scored 60 points.  The Pacers had upset the Clippers the night before and didn't show up.

Plays on home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -4

The Creighton Bluejays remain an undervalued commodity despite their 8-0 record this season.  This is legitimately one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 5-2 ATS this season with their two non-covers coming by a combined 1.5 points.

Creighton has proved it is for real with some quality wins over some very good teams.  The Bluejays beat Wisconsin by 12 as 1.5-point dogs, Washington State by 26 as 14.5-point favorites and NC State by 18 as 5.5-point favorites.

Nebraska has lost three of its last four games coming in and doesn't boast a good win yet.  The Huskers lost to UCLA by 11, Virginia Tech by 13 and Clemson by 2 in their three toughest games thus far.  Creighton is the second-best team they will have faced behind UCLA, and they are only catching four points.

Creighton head coach Doug McDermott puts a ton of emphasis on beating their in-state rival each year.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by double-digits.  In fact, the Blue Jays are a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They play in a small market and don't get much respect from the betting public or the books because of it.  This is a very nice value here with the Bucks as only 1-point favorites over the Blazers.

The Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 106-107 to the San Antonio Spurs as 6-point dogs.  They beat Cleveland 118-101 recently, and had narrow losses to Toronto (by 6) and Golden State (by 3) in the last few weeks, proving that they can play with anyone.

The Blazers come in overvalued off a 3-game winning streak.  They have beaten the Pacers, Heat and Bulls during this stretch, catching all of those teams in bad spots.  But the Blazers are getting outscored by 3.4 points per game on the road this season, while the Bucks are outscoring foes by 4.9 points per game at home.

Plays against road underdogs (PORTLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The lazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.  The Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.  Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  This team is running on fumes right now and won't be able to bring a very good effort tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be highly motivated to avenge an 89-112 home loss to the Pistons on November 29th just over a week ago.  That was a terrible spot for the Hornets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, so they simply didn't have anything to give.

That was a rare loss for the home team in this series because the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their previous three home meetings with the Pistons by 15, 20 and 22 points, or by an average of 19 points per game.  With the Pistons in the tough spot this time around, look for the Hornets to get back to blowing them out at home tonight.

Charlotte is 29-16 ATS in its last 45 games when revenging a loss of 10 points or more.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10.5

The Indiana State Sycamores are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  They have been an undervalued commodity in the early going, posting a 6-1 ATS mark through their first seven games.  They aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers here, either.

The Sycamores are very close to being 8-0 despite playing a tough schedule.  Their four losses have all come by 3 points or less, including a 78-80 road loss to Northern Illinois as 6-point dogs, a 71-73 loss to ranked Iowa State as 13.5-point dogs on a neutral, and a 62-65 loss to Stanford as 6-point dogs on a neutral.

Butler comes in way overvalued due to its perfect 8-0 start to the season.  But this will be just the Bulldogs' second true road games, and it's going to be a hostile atmosphere in support of the Sycamores.  They lost by 14 as 17-point road dogs to Butler last season, and now should stay within single-digits at home this time around, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Bulldogs are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Indiana State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

This is a discount on one of the best teams in college basketball Tuesday night.  The Duke Blue Devils will rarely be this small of favorites all season, and we'll take advantage here I expect them to crush the Florida Gators at Madison Square Garden.

Luke Kennard leads the Blue Devils (8-1) with 19.4 points per game, followed by Grayson Allen (17.1), Frank Jackson (15.4) and Amile Jefferson (14.7). Jefferson is also the leading rebounder with 9.8 per game.  They are loaded everywhere, and now they're finally starting to get healthy.

Duke's two prized freshmen recruits will get their first big test tonight.  Center Marques Bolden and forward Jayson Tatum, both five-star recruits, were cleared to play Friday in the 94-55 win over Maine.  That duo missed the first eight games of the season.  Instead of a six-man rotation, the Blue Devils now have eight guys they are comfortable putting on the floor.  It will make a huge difference going forward.

Florida is 2-10 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or fewer over the past three seasons.  Duke is 14-5 ATS vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12 or more points per game over the past three seasons.  Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 71-27 (72.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Duke Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The San Antonio Spurs are an impressive 12-0 on the road this season.  But they are being overvalued now due to this perfect road record, and they certainly should not be laying 5 points on the road tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves given the spot.

The Spurs should have lost last night to the Bucks on the road, but they escaped with a 97-96 win as 6-point favorites.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.  Don't be surprised of Greg Popovich rests some of his key players here given the spot.

The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with momentum after erasing a 7-point deficit in the final minute to beat Charlotte on the road 125-120 in overtime.  Now the Timberwolves have had two days off in between games after beating the Hornets on Saturday.  This young team will be fresh and ready to go, and look for them to try to run the tired Spurs out of the gym.

"The way we're losing, not getting blown out but making mental errors late in the game, it hurt us. It hurts me, especially," Karl-Anthony Towns told the Star Tribune. "To have a win like that, I'm finally able to smile, laugh a lot more and have my spirits up."

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Take the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

The Detroit Pistons have been a great bet at home this season as they are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game.  They just returned one of their best players in starting PG Reggie Jackson, and he should continue to improve as the games go on.

We'll gladly fade the Chicago Bulls here in an awful spot.  The Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 110-112 home loss to Portland last night after losing 82-107 in Dallas a couple nights before.  They are running on fumes right now and I don't expect much of an effort from them here.

The Pistons went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls last season.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Chicago as well.  Their domination against the spread in this series should continue tonight given the awful spot here for the Bulls.

Detroit is 25-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two years.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an undervalued team right now because of their 4-15 record on the season.  But they are starting to get healthy and playing much better basketball as a result.  They are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, which included a 107-82 beat down of the Chicago Bulls at home on Saturday.

Wesley Matthews had a season-high 26 points in the win while making seven of 11 from 3-point range, giving him 19 3s in his past four games.  Deron Williams recently returned to the lineup and is averaging 10.9 points and six assists.  Having him back has been the biggest key to their recent success.  He had a whopping 15 assists against the Bulls.

I like this spot for the Mavs because they just played the Hornets on December 1st in a 87-97 road loss.  Now they get to face them only four days later and will be out for revenge.  Look for them to get that revenge with an outright win tonight, though we'll take the 4.5 points for some added insurance.

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Colts/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +1.5

The Jets may be just 3-8 this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and not their performance on the field.  They have played the 5th-toughest schedule this season.  Now things finally lighten up a bit for them as they play the Colts, 49ers and Dolphins over the next three weeks.  I think you'll see much better results from them going forward.

I know the Jets have lost three straight, but they've been in all three games as the losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points.  They nearly beat the New England Patriots at home last week in a 17-22 loss after the Patriots scored late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good.  While sometimes a team would be in for a letdown after facing the Patriots, that won't be the case tonight because teams always get up for Monday Night Football.

A big problem for the Jets has been turnovers as they rank 31st in the league in turnover differential (-14).  They have only eight takeaways all season, which is absurd.  Their defense is better than that as it ranks 15th in the NFL at 348.7 yards per game allowed.  Over the last three weeks the Jets have given up fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt in each game.

Andrew Luck has been sacked 36 times this season, and the Jets still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They should get after him here and should win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense, giving up 27.4 points and 395.0 yards per game.  They rank 26th against the run and are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.  They are also 30th against the pass and 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.2.

Look for Matt Forte to get it going tonight and take some of the pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still an average quarterback in this league despite the interceptions.  Forte has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in his past five contests.  The Jets went to a short passing game against the Patriots last week and it worked.

Indianapolis may be in the playoff hunt at 5-6 on the season, but make no mistake, this is not a good team.  It has played the 6th-easiest schedule this season.  The Colts have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 42.6 yards per game on average.  The Jets have only been outgained by 13.6 yards per game this season to compare.

The Jets are 2-0 against Andrew Luck in his career.  Luck has completed just 43 of 81 passes for 530 yards with one touchdown, five interceptions and a 52.0 career passer rating.  He has also been sacked five times.  Colts quarterbacks have been sacked 3.5 times per game this season.

New York is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 home games off a home loss.  The Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New York.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall.  Eight of those 10 games were on the road, but they finally return home tonight where they are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS on the season.

The Oklahoma City Thunder come in overvalued after winning five straight games with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in all five.  They wins have come against the Nuggets, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards and Pelicans.  But now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating New Orleans 101-92 at home last night.

A big reason the Hawks have been struggling is because they have been without Paul Millsap, but there is a good chance he returns tonight.  Conversely, Steven Adams was injured yesterday and is unlikely to play for the Thunder tonight.  They will miss his presence inside if he can't go.

The Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Hawks Monday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +20

This is a very bad spot for the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They are coming off a huge road win over nationally ranked Iowa State on Thursday, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  They will suffer a letdown here off that big win and won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this 20-point spread.

Not to mention, this is a sandwich game for the Bearcats as they have another huge game on deck.  They will be traveling to face another nationally ranked Butler team the next time they hit the floor.  They certainly could find themselves looking ahead to that showdown as well.

Bowling Green lost its first four games this season all by 16 points or fewer, including three by 8 points or less.  But the Falcons have responded with three straight victories, including two blowout wins by 32 and 26 points.  Now they've had four days off in between games to get ready for Cincinnati, while the Bearcats have only had two days off.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 10-1 ATS versus poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or fewer of their attempts over the last three seasons. The Bearcats play a slow, grind-it-out style which favors big underdogs like the Falcons because there are fewer possessions.  Take Bowling Green Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -2.5

The New York Knicks continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as just 2.5-point home favorites here Sunday against the Sacramento Kings.  The Knicks have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are really starting to play well together.

It was going to take some time for all the new faces to gel in New York, but it appears that they have found their groove, especially offensively.  The Knicks have scored at least 102 points in nine consecutive games.  That has to be refreshing for Knick fans after points have been so hard to come by in previous seasons.  Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job in his first season.

The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect here.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.  The Knicks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this year, defending their home court very well.

Sacramento is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 road games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  New York is 54-28 ATS in its last 82 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* Giants/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a dog fight with the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead.  They are finally as healthy as they've been all season, and it is starting to show as they are coming off back-to-back blowout road wins over the Browns and Colts.  Now they've had extra time to prepare for this game after blasting Indianapolis on Thanksgiving Night.

The Steelers have outgained five straight opponents and seven of their last eight overall.  They are legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL as they rank 5th in point differential, outscoring opponents by 44 points on the season despite dealing with injuries and suspensions to their best players.  But that is no longer an issue from them, and we'll see their best going forward given the position they are in in the AFC North.

The New York Giants are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  They have only outscored their opponents by 18 points on the season, and 14 of those came last week against the Browns.  The key for them is that they've gone an unsustainable 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  No worries, this one won't be decided by that margin.

The Giants rank 25th in yardage differential on the season, which isn't something you would expect from an 8-3 team.  And they've certainly taken advantage of a very soft schedule.  The Giants have played the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 12th-toughest.

After losing back-to-back home games to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Steelers will get back on track in a big way at home here.  They haven't lost three straight at home since 2003.  Mike Tomlin is 56-21 all-time at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 25 touchdowns against five interceptions in his past seven home games.  The Steelers' defense is at their best when the stop the run, and that won't be an issue because the Giants are 31st in rushing offense.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past two seasons.  Tomlin is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.  The Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers came up with a season-saving victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week.  Not only did they win that game, they dominated, beating the Eagles 27-13 as 4-point dogs and outgaining them by 95 yards.

Now the Packers have new life as they are just two games back of the Detroit Lions for the division lead.  And the Vikings lost on Thursday to the Cowboys, while the Lions aren't likely to win in New Orleans this week.  That means a win Sunday would put the Packers just one game back in the division and with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions having beaten them earlier this season.  They have everything to play for right now.

The Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They may be 6-5 on the season, but they are nowhere near as good as their record.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  A big reason for that is their terrible offense, which ranks 29th in total offense at 316.9 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game.  The Texans also rank 31st in yards per play (4.8).

Houston has been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Texans are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points per game in the process.  Their offense is only scoring 13.2 points per game and averaging 279.2 yards per game on the road.  And their only road win this season came against the Jaguars when the Texans were coming off their bye week.

Brock Osweiler simply isn't going to be able to match Aaron Rodgers score for score.  Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with a 12-to-13 TD/INT ratio.  Rodgers looked great against the Eagles with the short passing game, taking pressure off the defense, which he will continue to do this week.  And he also has the threat of a running game now with a healthy James Starks, which is something the Packers haven't had for much of the season.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Green Bay is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  I expect one of the best performances of the season from Green Bay this week against the hapless Texans.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have gone 7-4 despite playing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point.  And all four of their losses have come by single-digits.  They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.0 yards per play on the season.

The Falcons are 3rd in total offense and 1st in yards per play.  They average 6.6 yards per play every time they snap the football.  They beat Arizona 38-19 at home last week.  What I liked about that win was that Julio Jones was held to 35 receiving yards, yet they still scored 38 points.  That just goes to show you how dynamic this offense is as there are weapons everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Just look at last week when they turned a safety into 9 points after Tyreke Hill returned a punt for a TD on the next play.  They were outgained by 191 yards by the Broncos last week.  Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that game, and their defense games up 6.7 yards per play to the Broncos.  They were lucky to win that game to say the least.

The Chiefs now rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential.  They're getting outgained by 54 yards per game on average.  They also rank 27th in yards per play differential.  They lead the league in turnover differential at +14, and it just seems that if their defense or special teams doesn't score for them, they can't win.  I just don't trust these types of teams.

This is also an awful spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off an emotional OT win on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, and now they have a huge game against division-leading Oakland on deck Thursday.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.

Road teams who are coming off an overtime game are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS while losing by 16.7 points per game in their last nine tries.  Kansas City is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers had a team meeting about their defense before their last game and will be a 'play on' team for me going forward for a few games.  They have come together and are way undervalued right now after losing six of their last nine games overall.

But the Blazers responded in a big way in their first game after addressing the issue, beating the Pacers 131-109 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Now they are hosting a worse Miami Heat team and only laying 6.5 points here tonight, clearly showing that they remain undervalued.

Miami comes in overvalued after winning back-to-back road games at Denver and Utah.  But the Nuggets are playing terrible right now and are banged-up, while the Jazz were missing three of their best players in George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors.  The Heat's road winning streak comes to an end here in a big way, especially since they'll be without key players Justice Winslow, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson and Luke Babbitt, and they could be without Derrick Williams as well.

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Blazers have won by 17 and 16 points in their last two home meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 13-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Take the Blazers Saturday.

20* College Football GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +3

You pretty much have to wipe out what Penn State did in the first part of the season because they weren’t healthy. But since that ugly loss in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have gotten healthier every week, and the result has been an 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS run to close out the season.  They have beaten the spread by a combined 131 points during this stretch!

Not only have the Nittany Lions been winning, they’ve been dominating. They have won five straight games by at least 14 points, which dates back to their 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Many thought that win was a fluke, but with five straight wins by 14 points since, I believe the Nittany Lions have more than proved their naysayers wrong.

The biggest difference for Penn State has been the health of its defense. They now have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and after being without their top five linebackers against Michigan, they have gotten back their two best starters in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. They have given up an average of just 17.8 points per game in their last eight games.

At the same time, the Penn State offense just keeps improving. They have scored at least 39 points in five straight games coming in, which is impressive when you consider they’ve been up against some solid defenses in the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. They are averaging 46.4 points per game over their last five.

Wisconsin checks in on a six-game winning streak of its own. Give the Badgers credit for their great season thus far, but I’m still not completely sold on this team. Four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. And they were extremely lucky to beat Minnesota last week after falling behind 7-17 at halftime. The Gophers gave that game away by throwing four interceptions in the second half alone.

I think the fact that this game will be played indoors in Lucas Oil Stadium clearly favors Penn State. The elements won’t be an issue, which usually benefits Wisconsin playing outdoors. The better passing team has a huge advantage indoors, and it’s clear that Penn State is the better passing team with more big-play potential.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 251 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt against teams that only give up 204 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt. Wisconsin only averages 180 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt against teams that give up 202 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.

Wisconsin prefers to run the ball, but Penn State has been tremendous against the run since getting healthy. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 66.8 rushing yards per game and 2.0 yards per carry in their last five games overall. They will be ready for the test of going up against this Wisconsin rushing attack.

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin could be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not play due to a concussion suffered against Minnesota last week. He and Bart Houston have split time this season as they’ve played with two quarterbacks down the stretch. It certainly has worked for them, so if he can’t go that would throw a little wrinkle into Wisconsin’s plans at the position.

Penn State is scoring 40.4 points per game during its 8-game winning streak.  It has the game-changing playmakers in this one in Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and QB Trace McSorley that will make all the difference.  The underdog has covered all five Big Ten Championship Games while winning three outright.  The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Championship No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

This ACC Championship Game has been moved from Charlotte to Orlando.  Why is that a big deal for the OVER?  Well, Charlotte is a grass field with colder weather and not ideal for scoring conditions.  The surface in Orlando will be on a fast artificial track, and the weather is going to see a high of 75 on Saturday.  That's ideal scoring conditions.

Clemson is going to hang a big number here.  The Tigers got their wake-up call from Pitt a few weeks back, but the offense has been humming since.  They scored 28 points in the first half against a good Wake Forest defense the following week before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they hung 56 on a decent South Carolina defense last week.

Deshaun Watson threw six touchdown passes in that win over South Carolina.  He has an outside shot of stealing the Heisman Trophy from Lamar Jackson now that Louisville faltered down the stretch.  And you know Clemson is going to give Watson every opportunity to put up a big stat line in this game to pad his stats, just as they did last week.  This is a Clemson offense that is putting up 40.0 points and 507 yards per game on the season.

First-year coach Justin Fuente has done a tremendous job of improving the previously stagnant VA Tech offense.  The Hokies are putting up 35.0 points and 453 yards per game this season. That’s a huge improvement from the last few years under Frank Beamer. Jerod Evans is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,045 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 713 yards and eight scores.

Clemson still has a good defense, but it has been susceptible to offenses a similar caliber to this Virginia Tech unit.  The Tigers allowed 36 points to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 43 to Pittsburgh.  I think Virginia Tech can come close to the 30-point mark in this one.

Clemson figures to hang a big number on what is a good VA Tech defense, but also one that has struggled at times this year.  The Hokies allowed 45 points to Tennessee, 31 to Syracuse, 36 to Pitt, 30 to Georgia Tech and 31 to Notre Dame, so they've given up at least 30 points five times.

Clemson should get to roughly 40 as we see somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-30 final.  The Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games while the Hokies have scored at least 34 points seven times against FBS foes this season.  VA Tech hung 52 on Virginia just last week to go along with 579 yards of total offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hokies last five neutral site games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Hokies last eight games following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

This is the classic home-and-home situation.  The Nets lost to the Bucks 93-111 at home on Thursday.  Now they're playing just two days later, and I'm almost always inclined to take the team that lost the first meeting because they're going to be the more motivated team.

I really like when the home team loses and then taking them on the road in the second meeting.  That's because we get more value, and that's the case here with the Nets catching 9.5 points.  This is a game that they could win outright as they are very familiar with the Bucks having played them twice already, and I can't see the Bucks being too motivated to beat them a 3rd time this year.

Adding to the value is the fact that Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall coming in.  That includes a win over the defending champion Cavaliers.  But now the Bucks have the Spurs on deck and certainly could be looking ahead to that game.

Milwaukee is 3-17 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 2-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  The Bucks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Rhode Island -2.5

The Rhode Island Rams have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  They are legitimately the better team in this rivalry game for the first time in years, and they should win.

The Rams will be motivated to end a six-game losing streak to Providence.  The last three meetings were decided by a combined 11 points, including a 74-72 home loss last year, so they have been right there with a chance to win.  2016 is when they get over the top.

Providence is in rebuilding mode this year after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.  Rhode Island is a legit Top 25 team this year with four starters back from last season plus the return of EC Matthews, their best player.

Providence is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half of its previous game.  Rhode Island's only two losses came on the road to both Duke (by 10) and Valpo (by 3).  The Rams won't be losing their third game here.  Take Rhode Island Saturday.

15* WVU/Virginia ESPNU Saturday No-Brainer on West Virginia +10

West Virginia should not be a double-digit underdog here against Virginia.  The Mountaineers have been rolling with the exception of a 4-point upset loss to Temple a few games back, and that result has them undervalued right now.

Virginia continues to be overvalued due to its 7-0 start.  It failed to cover against a down Providence team in a 63-62 win as 12-point favorites on a neutral court.  Then last time out the Cavaliers were lucky to beat Ohio State 63-61 as 12-point home favorites.

WVU has had four full days to prepare for Virginia, while the Cavaliers have only had two days to prepare for the Mountaineers after playing Ohio State on Wednesday.  That's a huge disadvantage for the Cavaliers because the Mountaineers' aggressive, pressing style is tough to prepare for.

Virginia is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 3 points or less.  West Virginia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or less.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -5.5

The Ball State Cardinals are going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They brought back four starters from last season and almost all of their best players.  They are 4-3 this season with their only losses coming to three good teams in Indiana State, Alabama and Valpo with two of those on the road.

IUPUI is clearly a mess this season off to a 2-5 start while going 0-5 in road games, getting outscored by 12.8 points per game away from home.  They have lost to Illinois State by 14, Eastern Kentucky by 10, Marqutte by 25 and Michigan by 12.  Perhaps their most concerning loss was a 58-61 setback at SIU-Edwardsville as 7-point favorites.

Plays on a favorite (BALL ST) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Roll with Ball State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/WKU C-USA Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +10

This line is a classic overreaction from what happened the week before.  Western Kentucky won 60-6 at Marshall, easily covering the 28-point spread.  Louisiana Tech lost 24-39 at Southern Miss, not even coming close to covering the 14.5-point spread.

But last week's LA Tech result can be thrown out the window.  It had already clinched the C-USA West Division, so that was a clear letdown spot in a game that didn't matter.  And Southern Miss is a way better team than its record would indicate and treated that game like it was their Super Bowl.  The Bulldogs were clearly looking ahead to the C-USA Championship Game, and they'll bring their 'A' game this week.

Western Kentucky didn't have the same luxury of taking last week off.  It was in a first-place tie with Old Dominion for the East Division title, so it needed to beat Marshall, which is a team that quit in the second half of the season.  The motivated Hilltoppers took care of business like they were supposed to and won the East division on a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head victory over Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky has played a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, which also has it overvalued.  The last four games have been against Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall, who are a combined 15-33 on the season.  This is going to be a huge step up in class for the Hilltoppers.

The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a field goal.  WKU won 41-38 at home in 2015 as 2.5-point dogs, while LA Tech won 55-52 as 2.5-point dogs back on October 6th earlier this season.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulldogs actually led that game 49-24 and had to hold on late for the victory.  They outgained the Hilltoppers 561 to 427 for the game, or by 134 total yards.

Ryan Higgins threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns in that first meeting with Western Kentucky.  He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country that many of you have probably never heard of.  He is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,706 yards with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 9.3 per attempt.

Higgins has two elite receivers on the outside who have had monster seasons.  Trent Taylor is the possession receiver, catching 113 balls for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Carlos Henderson is the big-play guy, catching 63 balls for 1,204 yards and 16 scores.  With this high-powered offense, the Bulldogs are never going to be out of this game, and the back door is always going to be open if they fall behind early.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

25* ESPN Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -2.5

This is my favorite play of the young NBA season thus far.  We'll take the Denver Nuggets as slim 2.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets in a game that you'll get to watch on ESPN tonight.  This game has the makings of a blowout in favor of the home team for a number of reasons.

First, Houston just beat Golden State in double-OT last night 132-127.  This is a tired team right now because of it at James Harden played 46 minutes, Ryan Anderson played 45 and Trevor Ariza played 43.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Nuggets.

Second, this is obviously a letdown spot for the Rockets now.  They just went on the road and beat the team that everyone expects to win the NBA title this season.  They won't be able to get up for the Nuggets here, and the spot is even tougher since they will be playing in altitude in the Mile High City.

Third, the Nuggets come in pissed off after a bad home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.  They gave the game away by committing 19 turnovers after previously fixing that problem by giving it away 12 or fewer times in four of their previous five contests.

Fourth, the Nuggets are getting healthy as Will Barton and Darrell Arthur are both expected to be available tonight.  Only Gary Harris is out for certain, so they're as healthy as they've been all season.  Barton didn't play in the loss to the Heat and is a huge weapon for them offensively.

Fifth, Denver has had Houston's number recently, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Houston is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall, and 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 58

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game.  These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game.  I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.

Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.

The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary's in the country.  The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. Washington is 12-2 UNDER when the total is between 56 and 63.5 over the past three seasons.  We're seeing an average of only 48.4 combined points per game in this spot.

The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.  If both of those come true again in this game, then this one will easily stay UNDER the 58-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Knicks UNDER 210

This is a home-and-home situation for the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks.  New York beat Minnesota 106-104 on the road Wednesday night.  Now these teams are extremely familiar with one another, which favors the UNDER and a defensive battle as they are playing again just two nights later.

And these teams have certainly played in their share of defensive battles of late.  They haven't combined for more than 210 points in any of their last four meetings.  They have averaged 196.8 combined points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, which is more than 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

New York is 23-6 UNDER versus teams who score at least 103 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 14-2 UNDER when the total is 210 or more over the last two seasons, including 9-1 UNDER in home games when the total is 210 or more over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -2

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a great beat at home this season.  They are 9-3 ATS on their home floor and should make easy work of the Orlando Magic tonight.  After all, the 76ers haven't played since Monday, so they will be ready to get back into competition tonight after having three days off in between games.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are in a terrible spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They shocked the Spurs to open this road trip, but then lost to a short-handed Memphis team last night.  I look for this tough stretch to take its toll on the Magic here as they are out of gas and will come out flat tonight.

The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -10

I've harped on it many times this season and I'm going to continue to do so.  The Utah Jazz are a much better team with George Hill than without him.  They are 8-3 with Hill in the lineup compared to 3-5 without him.  Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.0 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.2 apg).  He has been a real leader at the point guard position, something they've missed over the past few years.

Hill returned to the lineup four games ago, and it's no surprise that the Jazz have been playing their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games beating the Nuggets by 25 at home, The Hawks by 27 at home, the Timberwolves by 9 on the road and the Rockets by 19 at home.

Now the Jazz get to face a very tired, short-handed Miami Heat team.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They picked up a huge win in Denver last night, but after playing in the altitude, their bodies aren't going to recover in time to be competitive against the Jazz tonight.  Especially since they're without two key players in Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow.

Miami is 12-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.   Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days' rest.  The Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Utah.  Roll with the Jazz Thursday.

15* Cincinnati/Iowa State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -7

The Iowa State Cyclones have been very impressive in the early going and are certainly deserving of their Top 25 ranking.  The Cyclones are off to a 5-1 start this season that includes a 17-point win over Miami on a neutral court.  Their only loss came 71-73 to Gonzaga as 4.5-point dogs in a game they had a chance to win at the buzzer.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are also 5-1 this season, but they have feasted on a very easy schedule.  They played four home games against overmatched competition, and they split their two neutral court games, beating Penn State but losing to Rhode Island.  This will be their first true road game of the season.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Cyclones are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 42.3 points per game.  Iowa State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a straight up win.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the past three seasons.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44

It's well documented that the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  In fact, they rank last in the league in total offense at 294.9 yards per game.  They are also last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.8 yards per play.

The Vikings have no running game as they rank last in the NFL at 71.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  That means that a lot has been put on Sam Bradford's shoulders.  He has played well and hasn't turned the ball over much, but he just isn't able to stretch the field.

Last week against the Lions, the average distance of Bradford's pass attempts traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That was tied for the lowest number of any team during the 2016 season.  Bradford is completing over 70% of his passes in his last four games, but the Vikings only have one play that has gone for 40 or more yards in those four contests.

So, the Vikings are essentially using their short passing game as their running game.  They are completing a high percentage of passes, but they aren't going for much yardage.  This works great for UNDERs because it keep the clock moving, just like a running game would.  But the Vikings just aren't getting many points to show for it.

The good news for the Vikings is that they can be competitive in this game because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) and 3rd in total defense at 307.0 yards per game allowed.  They are tied for 3rd with 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They have a tremendous defensive line that will not only slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but also give Dak Prescott more trouble than perhaps he has had all season with their blitzing.

Dallas is one of the few teams that actually runs the ball more than it throws it this season.  That should keep the clock moving as well, just as the Vikings will do with their limited, short passing attack.  I look for both teams to really struggle when they get down in the red zone.  The Cowboys haven't struggled in this area much this season, but the task is much taller against this Vikings' defense.

Dallas is 6-0 UNDER in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Dallas is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. good passing defenses that allow 5.7 or fewer yards per attempt.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Vikings last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5

The Orlando Magic are coming off a big 95-83 road win at the San Antonio Spurs as 12.5-point underdogs Tuesday night.  That put an end to a four-game losing streak in which they lost by 4, 5, 3 and 8 points.  Now they should have some confidence going into Memphis tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Grizzlies as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They just learned that Mike Conley will be out for over a month with a back fracture, which was a huge blow to their team because he's their most important player.  They have lost by 19 to Charlotte and by 15 to Toronto in their last two games without him.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they were already short-handed even without Conley.  They are missing two other starters in Chandler Parsons and James Ennis, and they are without the best 6th man in the NBA in Zach Randolph.  Being short-handed and playing your 5th game in 7 days is not a good combination.

Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after one or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 173-112 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Orlando is 23-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take the Magic Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Riverside +24.5

I have been a big UCLA backer this season.  I backed them in all three Wooden Classic games and won all three as they beat Portland 99-77 as 15.5-point favorites, Nebraska 82-71 as 9.5-point favorites and Texas A&M 74-67 as 6-point favorites.  They were fortunate to narrowly cover those last two games.

Now it's time to fade the Bruins for a couple of reasons.  First, they are overvalued after a 4-game ATS winning streak.  Second, they are in for a letdown off their Wooden Classic Championship.  And third, they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Kentucky, so they'll be looking ahead to that game against the No. 1-ranked Wildcats.

UC-Riverside hasn't lost by more than 18 points this season.  It won its two home games by 46 and 36 points, but lost its three road games by 16 to Portland, 12 to UNLV and 18 to Utah.  That's a pretty tough road schedule and one that will have them battle-tested heading into this showdown with UCLA.

Freshman guard Dikymbe Martin has posted 41 points, 10 assists and 7 steals in his last two games.  He made his first career start against Utah and finished with 15 points, 5 assists, 4 boards and 3 steals.  He should continue to get increased minutes going forward.  Malik Thames missed the Utah game due to an illness in the family, but he's expected to return tonight.  Thames averages 12.3 points and 4.7 rebounds, while Chance Murray is averaging 12 points.  Martin leads them in scoring at 12.5 points per game.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UC-RIVERSIDE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1997.  UCLA is 1-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game over the last two seasons.  UCLA is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 following seven or more consecutive wins.  Take UC-Riverside Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -6

The Miami Heat are an absolute mash unit right now.  They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters, and they could be without key bench player Tyler Johnson again tonight.  Not to mention. both Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are nursing injuries right now that they are simply playing through.

The results have been ugly for the Heat of late as they are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 94-101 road loss at Philadelphia and an 84-107 road loss at Detroit.  They are shooting just 42.1% from the floor in their last five.  Now they must go play in the altitude in Denver, and I don't think they can keep up with the high-powered Nuggets.

Denver is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  It is scoring 107.0 points per game, including 110.5 points per game at home.  To compare, Miami scores 96.1 points per game overall and 94.0 on the road.  And the Nuggets are getting healthy as Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton are expected to play.  The only player they should be missing is Gary Harris tonight, but they've been without him for the majority of the season.

The Nuggets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with two of their losses coming to Toronto and Oklahoma City by a combined five points.  They have been bitten by close losses all season, but this game shouldn't be close at all given the injuries for the Heat.

Miami is 10-22 ATS versus explosive offensive teams that score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Denver is 21-8 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 4-13 ATS in road games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two years.  The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The Heat are 5-15 ATS in the last 20 meetings, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to Denver.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +5.5

The Atlanta Hawks are in about as tough of a spot as you will find.  They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days here.  They just played the Golden State Warriors on Monday in a narrow loss, and they will likely suffer a hangover from that defeat against the best team in the West.  They won't be up for the Suns tonight.

This tough schedule is clearly taking its toll on the Hawks as they have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a 10-point road loss to the Knicks, a 16-point home loss to the Pelicans, a 27-point road loss to the Jazz and a 15-point road loss to the Lakers.

The Phoenix Suns haven't been playing a whole lot better, but they are primed for a big effort here.  They have had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday.  They also have two more days off after this game.  They are putting emphasis on winning this contest.

Tyson Chandler's absence has been a big reason for the Suns' struggles.  Chandler has missed eight of the past 10 games to deal with his mother's death.  But he returned against the Nuggets last time out and finished with 10 points and 15 rebounds.  Having him will be key in this game to counter Atlanta's Dwight Howard.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-21 (69.6%) ATS since 1996.  Phoenix is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS loss.  The Suns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.  The Hawks are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Roll with the Suns Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -4.5

This is one of the rare times where two teams play each other twice this early in the season in non-conference action.  Northern Illinois beat Indiana State 80-78 at home in the season opener.  Now it's time for the Sycamores to get revenge at home this time around as only 4.5-point favorites.

I really like what I've seen from this Indiana State team.  It is much better than its 2-4 record as all four losses have come by 3 points or less.  That includes a 71-73 loss to Top 25 Iowa State as 13.5-point dogs and a 62-65 loss to a very good Stanford team as 6-point dogs.  Those two efforts alone show what the Sycamores are capable of moving forward.

Northern Illinois has some really bad losses during its 4-3 start and has played a much softer schedule.  The four wins have come against Indiana State, Roosevelt, Idaho and Illinois-Chicago, while the three losses have come against CS-Northridge, Cal Poly and Elon.  This will be just the Huskies second true road game this season, while it will be only the second home game for Indiana State.  The first resulted in a 41-point beat down of Missouri-St. Louis.

Indiana State is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  The Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -12

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mash unit right now.  It happened last year as injuries killed their season, and it's starting to happen again this season.  The Grizzlies were already without starters James Ennis and Chandler Parson, as well as the NBA's best sixth man in Zach Randolph.

But now they'll be without Mike Conley for at least a month due to a back fracture suffered last time out.  The Grizzlies lost that game 85-104 at home to the Hornets without all of those players.  They have to feel snake bitten right now with these injuries, and I don't expect much of an effort from them here tonight.

And now the Grizzlies must face one of the best teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors.  The Raptors have gone 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS this season.  They continue to be an undervalued commodity and are a legitimate threat to Cleveland in the East.  And they rarely take teams lightly, as evidenced by their 122-95 throttling of the 76ers on Monday.

The Grizzlies are a tired team right now as they'll be playing their 8th game in 13 days, which just compounds the problem with the injuries.  Memphis is 68-99 ATS in its last 167 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  The Grizzlies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Raptors are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  Toronto is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2.5

I've made this point a few times this season and I'll keep harping on it.  Utah is a much better team with George Hill in the lineup.  The Jazz are 7-3 in games with Hill, and 3-5 in games without him.  It's easy to see why as Hill leads the team in both scoring (21.2 ppg) and assists (4.2 apg).

The Jazz are starting to play up to their potential now that they are nearly full strength health-wise.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating the Nuggets by 25 and Hawks by 27 at home, and then the Timberwolves by 9 on the road.

I'm not that concerned that this will be a back-to-back for the Jazz because they had two days off prior to the Timberwolves game last night.  Plus, they will be out for revenge from a 102-111 road loss at Houston just 10 days ago on November 19th.  That will give them the extra motivation they need to push through.  George Hill missed that loss to Houston, too, and he'll make all the difference in the rematch.

Houston is an overvalued commodity right now and it's time to fade them.  The Rockets have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall as the public bettors continue to pour in on them.  They are now favored on the road against what I feel is one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Jazz.  The price is right to take the Jazz as home dogs here.

Utah is 63-34 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last three seasons.  Mike D'Antoni is 22-40 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Jazz are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Commonwealth -5

The VCU Rams are coming off a 25-11 season last year in the first season under Will Wade, showing that they don't miss Shaka Smart at all.  They went 14-4 in AAC play and lost an 81-85 nail-biter to Oklahoma with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.

The Rams returned four starters from that team, including JeQuan Lewis (11.3 ppg, 5.1 apg) and Mo Allie-Cox (10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  Fellow starters Doug Brooks and Jordan Burgess returned, as did key bench player Justin Tillman (7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who shot 71.7 percent over his final 21 games last year and had 21 rebounds against Dayton in the A-10 Tournament.

VCU is off to a 5-1 start this season with wins over St. John's and LSU on neutral courts.  The only loss came to Baylor 63-71, and Baylor is now currently the No. 9 ranked team in the country.  Baylor has beaten Louisville, Michigan State and Oregon already, so that's not a bad loss at all.

Princeton is off to a 2-2 start this season with its only wins coming against Lafayette and Rowan.  Princeton lost 73-82 at BYU and 67-76 at Lehigh.  This Tigers team is getting a lot of hype this season because they are expected to compete for an Ivy League title while bringing back all five starters from last year.  But this is the toughest game that they will have played yet, and they already lost to both BYU and Lehigh by 9 on the road.

The Rams are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  VCU is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Princeton is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet VCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team.  They are PG Bryant McIntosh (13.8 ppg, 6.7 apg last year), Aaron Falzon (8.4 ppg, 63 3-pointers) and Sanjay Lumpkin (3.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They have the potential to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance this year.

The Wildcats are off to a 4-2 start against a brutal schedule.  Their two losses both came on the road at Butler (68-70) as 7.5-point dogs and against Notre Dame (66-70) as 4.5-point dogs, losing those two contests by a combined six points and proving that they can play with good teams.  They also did that in a 77-58 blowout of Texas as 3-point dogs.  Those three results right there tell you a lot about what the Wildcats are capable of.

I think Wake Forest is overvalued due to its 5-1 start.  This is a team that went 11-20 last year and lost two of its best players in Devin Thomas and Codi Miller-McIntyre.  The five wins have come against Radford, Bucknell, UTEP, College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.  The loss was against Villanova 77-96 as 12-point dogs as they were clearly outclassed.

Wake Forest is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game over the past two seasons.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three years.  The Demon Deacons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Northwestern Monday.

15* Packers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Green Bay +4.5

The Green Bay Packers will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a victory to salvage their season.  They realize that with a win they are only two games back in the NFC North of the Detroit Lions, who they hold the tiebreaker with.  This division is still winnable, so not all is lost for the Packers.

Due to four straight losses, the Packers are to the point where they are as undervalued as they'll get this season.  We are getting them as 4.5-point underdogs, which is their biggest dog role this season and one of their biggest over the past couple seasons.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a field goal either way, so I like the value here. I also like the mental state of this team coming in.

"We have the right kind of men," head coach Mike McCarthy said. "This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome.

"We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to do this week and prepare to go beat Philadelphia."

Despite being 5-5 on the season, the Eagles' playoff chances are no better than the Packers right now.  They have no chance of winning their division because the Cowboys are running away with it, so their only shot will be a wild card berth.  And after a 3-0 start, the Eagles have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall to fall back down to earth.  I don't think this team deserves to be laying 4.5 points against a team the caliber of the Packers with the way they're playing right now.

Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  McCarthy is 27-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of Green Bay.  McCarthy is 18-6 ATS off a 2-game road trip as the coach of Green Bay.  Roll with the Packers Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics have started to play up to their potential now that they are fully healthy after playing several games without both Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  They have won three off their last four with all three wins coming on the road, and their only loss coming at home to the San Antonio Spurs, who are 10-0 on the road this season.

The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who have a laundry list of injuries and cannot afford to be short-handed with their lack of talent already.  The Heat are just 5-11 on the season.  They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Wayne Ellington.  They could be without Goran Dragic and Willie Reed again tonight.  And Dion Waiters is nursing a groin injury.

The Celtics come in well-rested as they will have had two days off since the loss to the Spurs on Friday.  The Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics have have the Heat's number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three straight wins by double-digits.

The Celtics are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Monday games.  Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents and 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Boston is 35-17 ATS in the last 52 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

25* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos are fresh off their bye week and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-3 on the season.  They know they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to win the division again, so they have certainly been focused over this bye week.

The bye came at a great time too because the Broncos were banged-up.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Fullback Andy Janovich had his cast removed and should be a receiving threat now while also aiding his lead blocking and blitz pickup.  Defensive end Derek Wolfe returned to practice after missing the last game, and CB Aqib Talib also returned to practice after sitting out since October 24th.

The Chiefs are as banged-up as they've been all season.  Linebacker Derrick Johnson is dealing with soreness in his Achilles tendon and is questionable.  The availability of wide receiver Jeremy Macin (groin), linebacker Dee Ford (hamstring), defensive tackle Dontari Pope (back), and running Charcandrick West (concussion) remains uncertain.  Cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) also had some limitations in practice in the days leading up to the game.

Kansas City's 7-3 record is very fraudulent.  It has the best turnover differential in the NFL at +13, which is unsustainable.  When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that this team isn't very good.  That's why I faded them last week and took the Bucs +7.5 in an outright 19-17 win, and I'll gladly fade them again here as they are overvalued catching just three points against the defending Super Bowl champs on the road.

Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 39.9 yards per game on the season.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so the Chiefs are in some very poor company.  Their lackluster offense only averages 333.8 yards per game, and their defense has taken a big step back this year in giving up 373.7 yards. per game.  The Broncos' rushing attack should be able to exploit a KC defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

The Chiefs have been outgained in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall.  They were outgained by 99 yards by the Bucs last week.  They were outgained by 85 yards by the Panthers and won that game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, which was very fluky as Carolina gave it away by blowing a 17-0 lead with turnovers.  And the Chiefs were very fortunate to beat the Jaguars 19-14 the previous week because they were outgained by a whopping 218 yards in that contest.

Denver is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  It is winning in this spot by an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Broncos are 8-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, coming back to win by 10.3 points per game in this spot.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Denver is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season winning by 6.8 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -3.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start while averaging 100.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.7 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (16.7 ppg, 4.2 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.0 ppg, 9.0 apg, 5.3 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (13.0 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) are also returning starters.

While UCLA has won all six of its games by double-digits, Texas A&M has already lost at home to USC this season and was very fortunate to beat Virginia Tech 68-65 on Saturday after erasing a 17-point deficit.  The Aggies lost four starters from last year in Danuel House (15.6 ppg), Jalen Jones (15.3 ppg), Alex Caruso (8.1 ppg, 5.0 apg) and Anthony Collins.

They have some young talent as well in Tyler Davis and DJ Hogg, but they're definitely down compared to last year.  Texas A&M is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  They'll be out-classed here by the loaded Bruins who are playing in their home state with tremendous fan support for this neutral site affair.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* Panthers/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +3

From a schedule standpoint I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.  They played last Thursday in a 23-20 win over the New Orleans Saints.  They have now had extra time to rest and prepare for the Oakland Raiders, and I expect a big effort from them here as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Panthers have been dominant since their 1-5 start and bye week.  They have gone 3-1 in their four games since and should be 4-0, but they blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs despite not giving up a defensive touchdown.  They have led by double-digits in all four games since their bye, though they have had some trouble closing out games, but that just adds to their value because they haven't been winning in blowouts.

Oakland could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS start to the season.  But the Raiders are a very fraudulent team as they have gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They rank 3rd in turnover differential at +10, which is unsustainable.  The Panthers rank 24th at -5 and have been unlucky in that department.  The Raiders have actually been outgained by their opponents on the season as well.

The Raiders are in an awful spot this week.  They just played in Mexico City on Monday Night Football and were fortunate to beat the Texans 27-20 with more fourth-quarter heroics from Derek Carr and company.  That game was played in high altitude at over 7,000 feet above sea level, which is nearly 2,000 feat above Denver, the NFL's highest city.  That game surely took a lot out of the Raiders, and they had a long flight back and will be working on a short week.  Couple that with the fact the the Panthers have had extra rest, and you can see that the schedule makers did them no favors.

The Panthers are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are two games back of the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead with a realistic chance of catching them since they still get them at home later in the season.  The Raiders can afford a loss because they have a lead over both the Broncos and Chiefs in the division.  And I just can't help but think they are due for a stinker after getting so lucky in close games thus far.

This Oakland defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season.  It gives up 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play, ranking 29th in total defense and 32nd in defensive yards per play.  The Panthers will have a big edge on the ground in this one.  Oakland ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 4.6 yards per carry to opponents this season.  Carolina ranks 2nd in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Raiders don't have much off a home-field advantage at all.  In fact, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oakland is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  Oakland is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 40% & 49% on the season.

Carolina is 61-32 ATS in its last 93 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game.  Ron Rivera is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games as the coach of Carolina.  He has never lost in this spot with the Panthers winning by 14.2 points per game on average.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued today as 13-point road favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.  I'll gladly take the home team and the points for a couple of different reasons.

It's worth mentioning that Lebron James and several Cleveland players attended the Michigan/Ohio State game yesterday and were down on the sidelines.  Their focus clearly isn't on beating the 76ers today in this 1:00 EST start time.

The 76ers always get up for the Cavs, while the same cannot be said for Cleveland.  In fact, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Only once have they lost by more than 13 points during this stretch, and six of those games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 101-102 Cleveland home victory in their only meeting this season as 12.5-point favorites on November 5th.

The Cavaliers are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take the 76ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens are sick and tired of losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They have lost five straight meetings in this series and haven't won since November 10, 2013, a span of 1,112 days.  With first place in the division on the line for the Ravens, and a chance to pretty much eliminate the Bengals from the race, they will be playing with extra motivation here Sunday.

"It's like that kid you just got to fight every day until you win," linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "They've been kind of picking on us. Five straight is five straight. Numbers don't lie. They've kind of had our number. We're going to see what we can do to change that."

"We're all tired of losing to the Bengals all the time," said linebacker C.J. Mosley, who has never beaten the Bengals. "That's the nature of football. You can talk about it all you want, but you got out there and do it Sunday."

Cincinnati is just 3-6-1 this season and 1.5 games behind Baltimore (5-5) and Pittsburgh (5-5).  Now the Bengals are in their worst shape of the season with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They lost All-Pro WR AJ Green in last week's loss to the Bills, and there may not be a more important receiver in the league to their team than Green.  The Bengals just don't have any other weapons at wide receiver.

The Bengals also lost running back Giovani Bernard to a season-ending ACL tear against the Bills.  Bernard is probably the most underrated player on the team.  He has accounted for 337 rushing yards and is second on the team in receptions (39).  Bernard is one of the best third-down backs in the league with not only his ability as a pass-catcher, but also his blitz pickup as he's as good as anyone in that department.

Not to mention the Bengals could be without their most important defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, who is questionable with a neck injury.  I just think that this team is starting to realize their season is over because there is no recovering from all these key injuries.  Even if they do show up Sunday they don't have the manpower to be competitive.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 295.1 yards per game and 1st against the run at 76.0 yards per game.  They only allow 14.4 points per game at home this season.  And their defense should get an even bigger boost this week with the return of pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil, who hasn't played in 49 days.

Green has been a thorn in the Ravens' side, so they're glad they won't be seeing him.  He has caught 41 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns in eight career games against Baltimore.  The Bengals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season, losing by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC North foes.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* Florida/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -7.5

The Florida Gators are coming off a monstrous 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point underdogs that won them the SEC East for a second consecutive season.  The Gators deserve credit for gutting that win out, but they are now overvalued after such a huge victory, and this is a prime letdown spot even though it's against a rival like Florida State.

And that win over LSU was a complete fluke.  The Gators were outgained by 153 yards by the Tigers.  LSU had five trips into the Florida red zone and came away with 10 points.  They were held to one touchdown, one field goal, a missed field goal, and they were stopped on downs at the 1-yard line twice.

Florida's offense continues to be a problem.  The Gators managed just 270 total yards against LSU, and 36.2% of those came on one play on a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.  They were extremely lucky to win that game, and this is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to the 8-2 record against a soft schedule.

Florida is going to be much more concerned with saving up for next week's showdown with Alabama in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game than beating Florida State.  The Gators have a laundry list of injuries right now as they'll be without up to 7 key players on defense, and at least 2 starting offensive linemen.  Coming off that physical game against LSU, they aren't going to have much left in the tank here.

Florida State is better than its 8-3 record and is legitimately a Top 10 team in the country in my eyes.  Two of its three losses came by a combined five points to UNC and Clemson.  But I've been very impressed with the way this team has responded since that loss to Clemson when they easily could have packed it in.

They came back the following week a little flat, but beat NC State 24-20 on the road.  Then they absolutely crushed Boston College 45-7 at home as 20.5-point favorites before going on the road and thumping Syracuse 45-14 as 23-point favorites.  Those efforts show that this team wants to finish the season strong.  And they don't have to save up for the ACC Championship Game, instead they're focus is 100% on beating Florida.

Something other than pride is on the line for the Seminoles, too.  This is Senior Night, and the seniors are trying to accomplish something that no other class in program history has been able to do.  They are looking to finish their careers with an 8-0 sweep of rivals Florida and Miami.  All told, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 12-1 against Miami and Florida since taking over the program in 2010.

"I think it means a lot to the seniors' legacy here, and the foundation that we set," Seminoles' senior cornerback Marquez White said of the possibility of going 8-0 against their two rivals. "This is my last time playing in this stadium. Last home game. This is the way I want to go out. This is the way I want to be remembered. So, it means a lot to have this opportunity."

Florida State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Florida.  The Seminoles won 27-2 over the Gators on the road last season, and Florida was SEC East champs then as well.  Plays against road underdogs (FLORIDA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games followign a win.  The Seminoles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Jimbo Fisher is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State, winning these games by 19.0 points per game on average.  LSU was a 13.5-point home favorite over Florida last week, and I believe FSU is every bit as good as LSU, and yet it is only laying 7.5 points here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +7.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are in an awful spot this week.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the SEC East with all that they had coming back.  And coming into last week, it looked like they would be playing this game against Vanderbilt with a chance to clinch the SEC East.  But that hasn't happened.

That's because Florida was supposed to lose at LSU as two-touchdown underdogs last week.  But the Gators were having none of it.  They beat LSU 16-10 with a huge goal-line stand in the closing seconds.  Now Florida has already been crowned SEC East champs and will play Alabama in the championship game for a second straight season.

That's a gut punch for the Vols, who actually beat the Gators on the field and now will have to watch them play Bama in Atlanta instead of them.  I don't see them showing up at all this week.  This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all season, too, and they are far from full strength right now.

Vanderbilt has a lot to play for.  The Commodores are 5-6 and looking to get to a bowl game for the first time in three seasons under current head coach Derek Mason.  They have put themselves in this position by impressively upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 at home last week as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Rebels by 118 yards in that contest.

Tennessee is off a 63-37 win over Missouri last week when it still had something to play for, but that result has it overvalued here.  And that 26-point win was very misleading as the Vols were actually outgained by 131 yards while giving up a ridiculous 740 total yards to the Tigers.

This Vols' defense has been gashed time and time again on the ground.  They have given up 353 or more rushing yards in four of their last six games, including over 400 yards on the grounds three times during this stretch.  Vanderbilt has one of the best backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who is primed for a huge game against this soft, banged-up Tennessee defense.

Five of Vanderbilt's six losses this season have come by single-digits, so they have been competitive week in and week out.  Tennessee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off a cover the previous week.  The Vols are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  I believe the Commodores earn their way to a bowl game with an outright victory this week, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 206

This is the rare home-and-home game in the NBA.  The Knicks and Hornets played an overtime thriller in New York last night.  The Knicks prevailed 113-111 in overtime.  That game saw 208 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now oddsmakers have set the total at 206 in the rematch.  I believe it's too high.  Familiarity favors defense, and points will be very hard to come by for both teams tonight.  I don't expect either team to get to the 100-point mark in this one.  They'll both be fatigued off an OT game, and that hurts teams offensively more than defensively.

These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 191.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those nine meetings, which is more than 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.  There's clearly some value here with the UNDER.

New York is 21-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Knicks last 53 overall.  Charlotte is 89-53 to the UNDER in its last 142 after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are way undervalued right now after their 41-74 loss to Virginia yesterday.  Virginia is one of the best teams in the country and the Hawkeyes weren't ready for their pack-line defense as they shot just 31.2%.  But now they're up against a team they can handle in Memphis.

Memphis is overvalued after starting the season 4-0 with wins over UTRGV, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Savannah State and McNeese State.  But it was beaten 51-60 yesterday against a Providence team that is way down this season after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.

And UTRGV and Savannah State are two common opponents who both Memphis and Iowa played at home.  Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84 and UTRGV 95-67, outscoring them by an average of 30 points per game.  Memphis beat UTRGV 94-75 and Savannah State 99-86, only outscoring them by 16 points per game on average.  It's clear that the Hawkeyes are the better team here.  Roll with Iowa Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +8

West Virginia is coming off a 'dream-crushing' 28-56 home loss to Oklahoma last week.  Had they won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the Big 12.  But now they have officially been eliminated as they have two conference losses and the Sooners haven't lost yet in conference play.

"We put a lot into (the Oklahoma) game, and it didn't go the way we wanted it to," Holgorsen said Tuesday. "We're disappointed with it, but we've got a tough one on the road against Iowa State, and you saw what they did to Texas Tech. It's going to be the toughest week of the year, but I'm anxious to see how the guys respond."

I expect the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect here and to not even show up at all against Iowa State.  I also think this is one of the more overrated teams in the country due to playing such a soft schedule and winning so many close games to pad their record.  That was pretty evident last week when they took a step up in class and lost to Oklahoma by 28.

Iowa State has been a money-making machine for backers as it has been undervalued week in and week out.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma State as 14-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 21-point dogs.  Those three results there show that they can play with the big boys of the Big 12.

But the Cyclones keep getting better and better as they season goes on.  After picking up their first Big 12 victory in a 31-24 win at Kansas, they came through with their best performance of the season last week in a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech as 3-point home dogs.  They racked up 608 yards of offense while limiting the Red Raiders' potent attack to 306 yards, outgaining them by 302 yards in that contest.

Now it's Senior Day for the Cyclones and they want to win one more game before their season is over as this is their final game, while West Virginia gets to play Baylor next week.  I just think this is a tremendous spot to back the Cyclones as they will be fully engaged, while the Mountaineers are primed to play their worst game of the season given the terrible spot they're in mentally right now.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.  Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These six trends combine for a 36-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -10

The South Florida Bulls are tied with the Temple Owls for first place in the AAC East Division.  They Owls do have the tiebreaker and would need to lose to East Carolina for the Bulls to have a chance.  But I like the fact that the Bulls play early on Saturday at 12:00 EST while Temple plays at 7:30 EST that night.  So the Bulls know they have to take care of their business first and won't be worrying about what Temple is doing.  They will be 100% focused on beating UCF.

Since losing to Temple, the Bulls have responded in a big way by beating Navy 52-45 at home in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led that game 42-14 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they had their bye week before going on the road and beating Memphis 49-42.  Then they won 35-27 at SMU last week.

UCF is a great story as it went 0-12 last season and then picked up its 6th win with a 24-3 home victory two weeks ago over a Cincinnati team that has clearly quit.  The Knights are just happy with being bowl eligible, and that showed last week as they lost 20-35 at home to Tulsa despite being 1.5-point favorites.  They were thoroughly outplayed by Tulsa as they were outgained by 153 yards.

In fact, the Knights have been an extremely fraudulent team all season.  They have been outgained in each of their last seven games despite finding a way to win four of them.  They are getting outgained by 94.0 yards per game in conference play despite their 4-3 record.

The mismatch in this game is on offense, where the Knights are terrible and the Bulls have one of the best units in the country.  The Knights only average 358 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  The Bulls average 43.2 points per game, 516.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this year.

UCF puts up just 312.4 yards per game and 4.5 per play in conference action, while South Florida averages 524.6 yards per game and 7.3 per play in AAC action.  The Bulls average 117 yards per game more than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation.  They had a trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams that is one of the best triplets in the country.

South Florida rolled UCF 44-3 on the road last season as 24.5-point favorites.  The Bulls are every bit as good as they were last year, and while the Knights are improved this season, again their 6-5 record is fraudulent.  Now the Bulls are only 10-point favorites at home in the rematch after being 24.5-point road chalk last year.  There is clearly some value here, especially with what's at stake for the Bulls in the AAC, while UCF is simply content with going to a bowl game.

Plays on home favorites (S FLORIDA) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons, winning by 19.2 points per game on average.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +26

Kentucky will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010.  The Wildcats have had a great turnaround season after starting 0-2 and going 6-3 the rest of the way.  They clinched their bowl berth with a 49-13 win over Austin Peay last week and didn't have to put much effort into that game at all, saving up for Louisville this week.

The Wildcats are 5-6 the past two seasons going into the Louisville game, needing a win to get bowl eligible.  The played the Cardinals tough in both games as they lost 40-44 in 2014 and 24-38 in 2015.  They fell apart in both of those games late, especially last season as they blew a 24-7 lead and were outscored 31-0 in the second half.

But now the Wildcats won't be playing with so much pressure on them since they already clinched their bowl berth.  They will be sort of 'free-wheeling' it here and playing with house's money.  I expect a big effort from them here as they look to get revenge on Louisville after narrow misses the past two seasons.

Louisville is in a massive letdown spot here off its 10-36 loss to Houston as 17-point favorites last week.  The Cardinals were in perfect position to make the four-team playoff after getting several teams to lose in front of them.  But they couldn't take care of their business, and now with their playoff dreams crushed, I expect a hangover effect here that will not allow them to play up to their full potential.

Kentucky is playing better than it is getting credit for.  It has actually outgained seven of its last nine opponents.  The Wildcats boast a prolific rushing attack that has produced at least 258 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.  They have two stud running backs who have both gone over 1,000 rushing yards on the season.  I think they'll be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack and play keep away from Lamar Jackson.

Louisville is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games off a road loss.  The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Kentucky hasn't lost to Louisville by more than 25 points in any of the last nine meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 26-point spread.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa +9.5

This is a rare occasion in college basketball where two teams will be playing back-to-back.  Xavier and Northern Iowa squared off just six days ago in the Tire Pros Invitational in Orlando.  The Musketeers won 67-59 after outscoring the Panthers by eight points in the second half and pulling away late.

The Musketeers were only 5.5-point favorites in that game and barely covered, and now they're 9.5-point favorites in the rematch because they are at home.  But this won't be the normal home-court advantage that Xavier usually has as kids are home for Thanksgiving Break.  Plus, I love taking the team that lost the first game in the rematch in situations like this one because they want it more.

Northern Iowa is one of the country's top mid-major programs annually and isn't used to losing.  The Panthers have a 4-2 record since the start of the 2014-15 season against Top 25 teams, and they were 3-0 last season against ranked opponents.  To get to the championship game last week, Northern Iowa throttled Arizona State 82-63 as 3.5-point dogs before upsetting Oklahoma 73-67 as 6-point dogs.

"We've been playing big schools for a long time now and we've beaten them," senior guard Jeremy Morgan told reporters this week. "It's not easy, but we know we can do it."

"It's a good opportunity for us to be able to go out and play a good team like that twice in a row just to prove we can play with anybody," UNI junior forward Klint Carlson said.

Xavier is 5-0 this season, but four of those wins came by 8 points or fewer.  It barely beat Lehigh 84-81 in its home opener, needed overtime to beat a terrible Missouri team 83-82 as 14.5-point favorites, and topped Clemson 83-77.  This team is clearly overrated right now based on those results, and they know they'll be in a dog fight today.

"I think they're going to bring their 'A' game when they come back," Trevon Bluiett said. "They've kind of got some motivation now, so, you know, I think we'll be ready for it as well. I think it'll be pretty exciting."

The Panthers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Panthers are 37-18-4 ATS in their last 59 games overall.  They have been an undervalued commodity for three straight seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Nebraska/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -9

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 5-0 start while averaging 104.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (19.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.6 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.6 ppg, 9.4 apg, 5.8 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg) are also returning starters.

Nebraska went 16-18 last season and lost its two best players from that squad in Shavon Shields (16.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Andrew White III (16.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  The program suffered a major blow in the offseason when White unexpectedly left the program and transferred to Syracuse. 

UCLA beat up on Portland 99-77 last night, which allowed its starters to play fewer minutes down the stretch.  Nebraska didn't have the same luxury as it beat an undermanned Dayton team that was missing two key players 80-78.  Three players played at least 30 minutes in that contest for the Huskers.

Nebraska is 10-28 ATS in its last 38 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Cornhuskers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Nebraska is 16-30 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog (NEBRASKA) - after a combined score of 155 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more three straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Weber State -3.5

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 2-2 start this season, losing true road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have six players averaging at least 8.5 points per game, including Jeremy Senglin (21.5 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Iona did go 22-11 last season and made the NCAA Tournament before losing to Iowa State.  But the Gaels lost three starters from last season, including their do-everything guard A.J. English (22.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Isaiah Williams (12.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

I haven't been impressed with Iona at all this season.  They lost by 21 as 14.5-point dogs at Florida State, which is one of the bottom tier teams in the ACC.  And they lost by 15 at Nevada as 12.5-point dogs.  Their only win came against a terrible Drake team by a final of 64-53.  Drake went 7-24 last season and is 1-3 this season with losses to Missouri-KC and South Dakota.

Iona is 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Weber State crushed Cal Davis 86-58 to deliver the goods for us last night and will have plenty left in the tank for Iona tonight.  Bet Weber State Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -2.5

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the price on them is cheap right now.  But a big reason for their struggles was injuries, most notably to starting point guard George Hill.

But Hill returned to the lineup last time out and the Jazz got back on track by crushing the Denver Nuggets 108-83 at home.  Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game while shooting 55% from the field.  He has missed eight games this season already, and they are 5-3 without him compared to 3-5 without him.

This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jaz, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The Hawks will be playing their 7th game in 11 days and have shown signs of wearing down.  Atlanta is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall, but it is still getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Utah is 59-34 ATS in its last 93 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on one days' rest.  The Jazz are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU +1.5

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 4-1 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites and an 84-57 win over UC-Santa Barbara as 19-point favorites.

Milton (12.0 ppg, 4.0 apg this year), Brown (11.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.0 apg) and Moore (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (20.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (10.2 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

I know SMU didn't fare well in a loss to Michigan, but that was a tough spot as the Wolverines run a bunch of different defenses that are tough to prepare for.  And they had no time to prepare as they were playing a second straight day after beating Pitt the night before.  I like the fact that this team is battle-tested with this tough early schedule.

USC lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers from last season in Nikola Jovanovic and Julian Jacobs.  The Trojans had four other players transfer.  They are counting on up to four freshmen to contribute significantly this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start this year which has them overvalued, but they have played such a soft schedule.

This will be the Trojans' toughest test of the season.  And they certainly aren't hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going as they are shooting just 40.8% as a team overall and 30.5% from 3-point range.  SMU is shooting 47.5% as a team and 38.9% from 3-point range against a much tougher schedule.

The Mustangs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Trojans are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take SMU Friday.

20* TCU/Texas Big 12 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -2.5

It's clear by their reaction on social media that the Texas players love Charlie Strong and don't want to see him go.  They are taking responsibility for their struggles this season and not putting the blame on Strong.  I look for them to come up with a huge effort to try and win this game for him in what is a 'rally the troops' type of game for these players.

There's no doubt that Texas can't lose to Kansas, ever, period.  But the the Jayhawks didn't win that game, the Longhorns clearly lost it.  They committed six turnovers to essentially give the game away.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 71 yards in that game after outgaining West Virginia by 153 yards and Texas Tech by 176 the two games prior.

Let's not forget that TCU easily could have lost at Kansas earlier this season, too.  The Horned Frogs only beat the Jayhawks 24-23 as 28.5-point favorites.  But unlike Texas, they were actually outplayed by the Jahawks.  They were outgained by 108 yards in that narrow win over Kansas.

TCU has given a lot of flat efforts here of late, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has been outgained in four of its last six games overall.  It lost 24-27 (OT) at home to Texas Tech, 10-34 at West Virginia, and then last week lost 6-31 at home to Oklahoma State.  That game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs were outgained by 198 yards by the Cowboys.

Texas will not only be motivated to show its support for Strong, but also to get bowl eligible with a win.  TCU can win next week at home against Kansas State and get bowl eligible, so this game is more important for the Longhorns.  Plus, they want revenge from the embarrassing 7-50 road loss to the Horned Frogs last season.

Strong is 11-2 ATS off two more more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.  The Longorns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in all games this season.  TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off a home loss by 14 or more points are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Texas Friday.

15* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 64

I fully expect a defensive battle in the Apple Cup with what's at stake.  These teams have never had this much riding on the rivalry.  The Pac-12 North title is up for grabs as the winner will be going to the conference championship game.  I expect this game to be played closer to the vest than normal, and for points to be very hard to come by.

Washington boasts one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 17.9 points, 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  It is holding opponents to 10 points, 73 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season averages.

The biggest reason for Washington State's improvement has been the defense.  The Cougars are now above average on this side of the ball for the first time in a long time.  They only give up 25.5 points and 408 yards per game, holding opponents to 6.3 points and 34 yards per game less than their season averages.

Washington State loves to throw the ball, but Washington ranks No. 17 in pass efficiency defense.  The Huskies have held their opponents to 85 yards per game below their season averages in Pac-12 play.  The Cougars rank 49th in pass efficiency defense and have held their conference opponents to 25 yards per game below their season averages.

Just looking at the series history it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings while not once topping 63 combined points.  They have combined for 55, 44, 44, 59, 59, 63, 30 and 29 points in the last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 47.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than this posted total of 64.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WASHINGTON ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +11

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They would love nothing more than to punch their tickets to the postseason while simultaneously knocking rival UNC out of ACC Coastal Division contention with a win Friday.  But it's not like the Tar Heels have much of a shot to win the Coastal anyway because they would need to win and have Virginia Tech lose to Virginia as 18.5-point home favorites.

I think the value is prime here with NC State because they have lost five of their last six games overall.  Ever since blowing that field goal against Clemson and losing in overtime, they just haven't been the same.  But this is a 'circle the wagons' type of game that the Wolfpack will certainly show up for against their in-state rival.

The Tar Heels seem to just be going through the motions their past two games.  They lost 27-28 as 10.5-point favorites at Duke two weeks ago and were outgained by 64 yards.  Then they were actually outgained by 15 yards against The Citadel last week as 23-point favorites in what was a very misleading final score.

From a matchup standpoint I like the Wolfpack here.  They have an underrated defense that is holding opponents to 58 yards per game less than their season averages.  UNC is giving up 6 more yards per game than its opponents average.  And the Wolfpack defensive line is their strength with their ability to get after opposing quarterbacks.  They should be able to get to Mitch Trubisky and knock him off his spots.

These teams have faced very similar strength of schedules.  In fact, the Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule.  That's important because North Carolina is only outgaining opponents by 43 yards per game while NC State is outgaining them by 62 yards per game on the season.  The talent gap between these teams is much closer than their records would suggest.

This is certainly a rivalry game where you want the underdog.  The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings with 12 outright upsets over the past 18 seasons!  NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons.  Roll with NC State Friday.

15* UC Davis/Weber State Midnight EST BAILOUT on Weber State -4

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 1-2 start this season, losing road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have four players averaging double-digits scoring, including Jeremy Senglin (22.0 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Conversely, UC Davis is being overvalued due to its 4-1 start this season.  The one loss was a 14-point setback to Tennessee State, while the four wins have come against the likes of Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Holy Names and Sacramento State.

UC Davis is being picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West Conference.  This is a team that went just 11-19 last season and loses three key starters in Josh Fox (14.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg last year), Neal Monson (9.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Brynton Lemar (10.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  They have their two guards back, but they are really hurting on the interior.

Weber State has had a full week to prepare for this game and get better after last playing on November 17th.  UC Davis doesn't have the same luxury having last played on November 21st.  Weber State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 55 points or less.  The Wildcats are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games following a road loss where they scored less than 60 points.  The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. Big West opponents, while the Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes.  Take Weber State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -14.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start while averaging 105.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 27.7 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (20.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (18.8 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.2 ppg, 9.0 apg, 6.2 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Thomas Welsh (10.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg) are also returning starters.

Portland went just 12-20 last season.  First-year head coach Terry Porter has done a good job of getting the Pilots to 3-0, but the wins have come against UC Riverside, San Jose State and Lewis Clark.  This is a big step up in class for the Pilots as they will be overmatched at all positions.

Portland is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 vs. teams who give up at least 77 points per game.  Steve Alford is 13-4 ATS off three straight wins by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Bruins have won all four games by at least 15 points this season, and that streak will improve to five as they get the win and cover in the opener of the Wooden Classic.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving Night Dessert on LSU -6.5

Both of these teams could be lacking motivation. It comes down to which team you trust more, and for me that is clearly LSU, which is still one of the best teams in the country in my opinion despite having four losses. Texas A&M is way more fraudulent despite having a better record at 8-3.

The Aggies have been an overvalued commodity for two months now, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their last three games really have told the story about where this team’s focus is at. They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, lost 28-29 as 7-point home favorites over Ole Miss, and only beat UTSA 23-10 as 27-point home favorites last week.

Things really turned for this team when they lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a season-ending injury against Mississippi State. Backup Jake Hubenak isn’t terrible, but he’s also not the runner that Knight was. Their offense clearly misses that dimension as Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry before the injury. Hubenak has rushed 31 times for 44 yards, an average of just 1.4 per carry.

LSU has four losses, but it easily could have won all four games. It lost 14-16 to Wisconsin, 13-18 to Auburn after a last-second TD was called back, 10-0 to Alabama in what was a tie game in the fourth quarter, and then 10-16 to Florida last week after the Tigers were stopped from the 1-yard line twice in the closing seconds.

I think that loss to Florida last week has the Tigers undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and didn’t meet expectations. But they probably should have won by two touchdowns when you look at the box score. They outgained Florida 423 to 270 for the game, or by 153 total yards. But they were stopped at the goal line on two separate drives, and Florida converted one of those into a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.

These players love Ed Orgeron, and similarly to when they won last year when Les Miles was expected to get fired, I think they will show up for their interim head coach here. They have responded well from adversity. After that 10-0 loss to Alabama and having their SEC West title dreams crushed, they came back the next week and rolled Arkansas 38-10 on the road while outgaining the Razorbacks by 256 yards.

When you compare common opponents LSU has a big edge. The Tigers are 3-2 against the same five teams that Texas A&M has played while outgaining them by 64.0 yards per game and holding them to 319.4 yards per game. Texas A&M is 2-3 against those same five teams, getting outgained by 66.8 yards per game and giving up 481.0 yards per game.

LSU is by far the supremely talented team in this matchup, and it has big fundamental advantages as well. The Tigers should be able to run all over the Aggies, and their defense should shut them down with a backup QB. The Tigers average 232 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry, while the Aggies give up 180 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

LSU gives up 14.1 points and 308 yards per game on the season, while Texas A&M allows 21.1 points and 428 yards per game. The Tigers only allow 14.6 points and 304.6 yards per game in conference play, while the Aggies give up 26.9 points and 495.3 yards per game against conference opponents.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Aggies are 0-7 ATS in November home games over the last three seasons. LSU owns Texas A&M, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Four of those have come with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach in College Station.  Roll with LSU Thursday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +7

The Cowboys have always been a public team. That has been even more so the case this season as they have actually delivered for backers on a regular basis. Not only are they 9-1 straight up, but they are also 9-0-1 against the spread. They are the only team left in the NFL that has not lost ATS all season.

They have barely escaped with covers in three of their last four games. They covered in OT with a touchdown against the Eagles as 5-point home favorites. The Steelers missed four two-point conversions, otherwise that game would have played out much differently as the Cowboys won 35-30 and covered the 3-point spread. And then they added a field goal in the closing seconds against the Ravens last week to win 27-17 as 7-point favorites.

I think it is time to fade the Cowboys this week. They cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to their incredible ATS record, and now they’re being asked to lay a full touchdown against a division rival in the Washington Redskins. And I would argue that the Redskins are the next-best team in the NFC East, and not very far behind the Cowboys.

The Redskins just keep getting better and better. After an 0-2 start, they have gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But unlike the Cowboys, this team continues to lack respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers. They are winning the box score every week, so it has been no fluke.

The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game. They won 16-10 in Baltimore and outgained them by four yards, they won 27-20 over Philadelphia and outgained them by 254 yards, they lost 17-20 at Detroit despite outgaining them by 69 yards, they tied the Bengals 27-27 in London despite outgaining them by 131 yards, they beat the Vikings 26-20 and outgained them by 57 yards, and last week they won 42-24 over the Packers while outgaining them by 91 yards.

This Washington offense can score on anyone. The Redskins have put up 451.8 yards per game in their last five games overall. They are second in the NFL with 6.4 offensive yards per play on the season, which is only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins is playing as well as anyone at the quarterback position, but the key is that they have found a running game.

The Redskins have rushed for an average of 148.6 yards per game in their last five contests. Robert Kelley has emerged as the lead back and rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week. He is a fierce runner who doesn’t go down easily. He has rushed for 424 yards and four scores while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The final point I want to make here is that home-field advantage means nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. They will be playing with revenge from their 27-23 loss to the Cowboys earlier this season, and I expect this game to be decided by less than a touchdown once again.  Bet the Redskins Thursday.

15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43

I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I feel it is priced about right. But I am seeing some value with the total here of 43 points and playing it UNDER the number. I look for this to be a very low scoring game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a battle between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 32nd in the league in total offense at 293.8 yards per game, while the Lions rank 25th at 331.7 yards per game.

The Vikings do have one of the elite defenses in the NFL as they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 306.9 yards per game. The Lions are a respectable 16th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and 19th in total defense at 358.2 yards per game.

I think the fact that Arizona and Minnesota combined for 54 points last week has the books setting this number higher than it should be. But that 30-24 final was very misleading. The Vikings were held to just 217 yards of offense, but they got a 100-yard interception return TD and a 104-yard kickoff return TD. The Cardinals only had 290 yards of offense in the game.

These teams are very familiar with each other as they are obviously division opponents, but they also just squared off on November 6th in their first meeting of the season. That game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation before the Lions won 22-16 in overtime for 38 combined points. The Lions had done nothing on offense until their final two possessions where they drove down for the game-tying field goal in a matter of seconds, and then the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

And this division rivalry has certainly seen its fair share of low-scoring games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings while exceeding 42 combined points only once. They have averaged just 34 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 9 points less than this total of 43.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vikings last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Vikings lat 28 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/UNC Maui Invitational No-Brainer on North Carolina -4.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been the most impressive team in the country thus far.  They have gone 6-0 with all six wins coming by 15 points or more.  They are averaging nearly 97 points per contest and winning by 29.3 points per game.  Now they're another win from capturing the Maui Invitational title.

Wisconsin doesn't have the firepower to keep up.  We saw that in the Badgers' only loss this season, a 67-79 setback at Creighton despite being 1.5-point favorites.  And Creighton runs and up-tempo style similar to that of the Tar Heels, who just beat Oklahoma State 107-75 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

UNC lost to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 in 2015 and hasn't forgotten.  "Wisconsin knocked us out two years ago, so, of course, it would be great," Justin Jackson said. "But right now we're trying to just focus on Wisconsin. We know they're a really good team, so we've got to focus on them, but obviously a title would be great."

The Badgers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous games.  The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  North Carolina is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz will be extremely motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, so they are clearly undervalued right now.  And one of those losses came against the Nuggets just three days ago in Denver, so they'll want revenge as well.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, come in on a 5-0 ATS winning streak.  They are starting to get a lot of respect from the books, and it's time to fade them.  And this is a very tired team right now as the Nuggets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.

Meanwhile, the Jazz come in rested as they had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday.  They're hoping to get starting point guard George Hill back from injury.  And they have certainly owned this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.

The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Salt Lake City.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad loss to the Golden State Warriors at home, which was the second of a back-to-back after beating Oklahoma City 115-111 in overtime on the road the night before.  And they were missing several key players in that contest against the Warriors.

But now the Pacers are expected to be healthier for this showdown against the Atlanta Hawks.  Jeff Teague is probable, while Paul George is on the probable side of questionable after missing the past three games.  Myles Turner is also probable.  The Pacers are 6-3 at home this season, while the Hawks are just 3-3 on the road.

The Hawks have lost three straight coming in and are clearly starting to wear down.  They even lost 94-112 at home to the Pelicans last night as 8-point favorites.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets in terms of rest situations in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now due to going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are now being asked to lay points on the road to the Denver Nuggets when they really shouldn't be favored.

The Bulls will start to wear down tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing both the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles on back-to-back nights Saturday and Sunday.

The Denver Nuggets have been an undervalued commodity all season.  They've gone 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last four, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers because of their 5-8 straight up record.  But they've have some real tough luck in close games this season.  They will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days here.

Chicago is 13-33 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Denver.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio) -7

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are looking to pull off the remarkable feat of starting 0-6 and finishing 6-0.  They currently sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  You can bet they will be fired up to win this game on Senior Night and cap off this amazing run.

Ball State has nothing to play for right now.  It sits at 4-7 on the season after a road loss at Toledo, which was its fourth straight defeat, so it will not be going bowling.  And the Cardinals last played on November 16, while the Redhawks last played on November 12, giving Miami a huge scheduling advantage as it has had nine days off in between games, while Ball State has only had five days off.

It was really clear from the beginning that Miami was better than its 0-6 start as it actually outgained four of its first six opponents despite the record.  And now once the schedule has softened a bit, the Redhawks have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Ball State and Miami have played the same four opponents. Ball State is 1-3 against them while losing by 2.5 points per game and giving up 508.0 yards per game defensively.  Miami is 3-1 against them while winning by 5.5 points per game and giving up only 333.0 yards per game defensively.

And defense is clearly where this game will be one as the Redhawks will get stops while the Cardinals will not.  Miami allows just 24.7 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  Ball State allows 30.9 points, 474 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this year.

Ball State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Miami is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their lat five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Redhawks.  Take Miami (Ohio) Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Auburn +6

The Auburn Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Bruce Pearl is in his third season and finally has his players in place, which is why this team has performed so well in the early going.

They have guard T.J. Dunans back, who averaged 11.6 points in 16 games before injuring his left knee last season.  Guard Bryce Brown set an Auburn freshman record with 78 3-pointers.  Forward Horace Spencer finished third in the SEC in blocked shots last year.  Forward Danjel Purifoy was a redshirt freshman last year who was their top recruit.  Guard Mustapha Heron is a freshman five-star signee.  Guard Ronnie Johnson was a graduate transfer who average 9.4 points at Houston last year.

Auburn is 3-0 this season and 2-0 ATS in lined games.  It beat North Florida 83-66, Georgia State 83-65 as 7.5-point favorites and Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as 15.5-point favorites.  Texas Tech is also 3-0 with wins over Houston Baptist, North Texas and Eastern Kentucky.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Tech beat Eastern Kentucky by 19, while Auburn beat them by 21.

Purifoy (16.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Heron (14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly living up to their massive potential in the early going.  Jared Harper (11.7 ppg) and Brown (10.0 ppg) are also double-digit scorers.  Harper was rated as the No. 21 point guard nationally and the No. 6 recruit out of Georgia.  The Red Raiders are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.  Bet Auburn Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Toronto Raptors are extremely tired right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They started showing signs of slowing down last night in a 99-102 loss at Sacramento as they shot just 40% from the floor and easily went under the 211-point total.

I think the fatigue will hurt the Raptors a lot more on offense than it will on defense tonight.  Plus, the Raptors will be up against a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers only allow 95.4 points per game on the season, including 90.1 points per game at home.

These teams met twice last season and both games went UNDER the total.  They scored 171 combined points with a 203.5-point total in their lone meeting in Los Angeles.  Then they scored 204 combined points with a 206.5-point total in their rematch in Toronto.  The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles is 21-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons, including 15-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Clippers are 12-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents ty 3-plus points per game over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Texans/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland -5.5

The Oakland Raiders are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They  have absolutely dominated the box score and the scoreboard in their last two games as they keep improving, and now they've had a bye week to make even further improvements and prepare for Houston in this Mexico City showdown.

The Raiders beat the Bucs 30-24 on the road in overtime in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bucs by 356 yards in that contest.  Then they outgained the Broncos by 98 yards in a 30-20 home victory last time out.

Oakland boasts one of the league's top offenses as it is averaging 27.2 points and 401 yards per game this season.  It has put up at least 30 points in three consecutive games coming in.  It has a huge advantage on that side of the ball over the Texans, who rank 30th in total offense at 308.8 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.9 points per game.

And the Raiders have really improved defensively over the past couple games.  They held the Bucs to just 270 total yards before giving up just 299 to the Raiders last time out.  This defense has the talent, so it was only a matter of time before they got it turned around.

The Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in road games this season.  The Texans are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 15.0 points per game.  Their offense is averaging just 11.5 points and 260.5 yards per game away from home.  Their only road win came against the Jaguars 24-21 in a game they should have lost last week as they were outgained by 54 yards.

Oakland is 9-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  While the Raiders are extremely healthy right now, the Texans have a laundry list of injuries coming into this one.  Bet the Raiders  Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -9

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 as 14.5-point favorites before dismantling NC State 112-94 as 5.5-point favorites last night.

Ole Miss went 20-12 last season, but it lost three starters from that team in Stefan Moody (23.6 ppg, 4.3 apg), Tomasz Gielo (9.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Anthony Perez (7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg).  The loss of Moody is huge because he was one of the very best players in the country.

Ole Miss is 4-0 this season as well, but I've been much less impressed with its results than Creighton's.  The Rebels only beat Tennessee-Martin 86-83 as 17-point home favorites and UMass 90-88 as 11-point home favorites.  Those two results were alarming, but they also only beat Oral Robers 95-88 as 8-point favorites on a neutral court.  They did cover in an 81-68 win as 2.5-point favorites of St. Joseph's, but St. Joe's is way down this season and that cover is getting them too much respect from the books today.

Since this is the second game in two days for these teams, it's important to look at how many minutes players played last night.  Well, Creighton is so deep that it didn't play anyone more than 29 minutes, and only one player played more than 26 minutes.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss played its best players big minutes.  Deandre Burnett played 36 minutes, Cullen Neal played 34 and Sebastian Saiz played 33.  So, I think this back-to-back hurts Ole Miss more because it lacked the depth of Creighton.

The Bluejays are 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Creighton is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Creighton Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Pistons OVER 205.5

This is a very low total for any game that involves the Houston Rockets.  In fact, this is the second-lowest total for a Rockets game this season.  The lowest was 200.5 last time out against the Jazz, and they easily went over that with 213 combined points.

The Rockets and their opponents have combined for at least 200 points in 12 of 13 games this season.  Houston ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.2 points per 100 possessions.  It is averaging 109.1 points per game on the season and giving up 104.9.

The two meetings between the Pistons and Rockets last season were very high scoring.  They went over 198 points in a 116-105 home win for the Pistons for 221 combined points.  They also went over their 209.5-point total with ease in Houston with a 123-114 final and 237 combined points.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Monday games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Pistons last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's now time to fade them with the awful spot they are in here.

The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd road games in 4 days.  They have to be fatigued after losing 95-102 to the Clippers last night, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were out partying last night in Los Angeles.

The Lakers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 7-6 SU & 8-4 ATS. They are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as home underdogs.  And this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they will be the much fresher team.

Los Angeles is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 1 days' rest.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -5.5

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 3-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 yesterday as 14.5-point favorites.

NC State went 16-17 last season and lost its two best players from that team in Anthony Barger (23.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) and Caleb Martin (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg).  The Wolfpack are off to a 3-0 start this season as well, but their wins have been much less impressive.  They only beat Georgia Southern 81-79 as 14-point home favorites, St. Francis-NY 86-61, and Montana 85-72 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

Creighton is 16-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Creighton is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take Creighton Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Davidson -2.5

The Davidson Wildcats returned four starters from last year's team that went 20-13 and made the NCAA Tournament.  They are led by Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg, 5.0 apg last year) and Paton Aldridge (15.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg), two of the top players in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson crushed Missouri 70-55 as 5.5-point favorites yesterday, which is the same Missouri team that took 11th-ranked Xavier to overtime the day before.  Arizona State has not been good at all the past two days in this tournament, and that's why we'll fade the Sun Devils here.

Indeed, ASU lost to Northern Iowa 63-82 despite being a 3.5-point favorite.  It then only beat Tulane 80-71 yesterday as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  That's the same Tulane team that lost by 20 to UNC and by 19 to Oklahoma.

Davidson is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Sun Devils are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.  Roll with Davidson Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode following four straight losses.  They likely would have beaten the Cowboys last week had they not gone for four two-point conversions and misses all four, instead kicking the extra points as that game would have played out much differently.

The Steelers aren't broken because they have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite the losses.  Ben Roethlisberger finally looked healthy last week as he threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns without an interceptions against the Cowboys, clearly holding up his end of the bargain.  And I expect Roethlisberger and the Steelers to hang a big number against the Cleveland defense.

The Browns rank 31st in both scoring defense and total defense, giving up 30 points per game and 419 total yards per game.  And Cleveland doesn't have the firepower to keep up offensively.  The Browns rank just 28th in the NFL in total offense and have been held back by their quarterback play.

Hue Jackson decided to go with Cody Kessler over Josh McCown the last two weeks to see if he has a future with the team.  The answer is clearly a resounding 'NO', and it shows that the Browns don't care about winning as McCown would give them a much greater chance to do that.

They were held to 10 points and 222 total yards against the Cowboys in a 25-point loss two weeks ago, and just 7 points and 144 total yards against the Ravens last week.  Cleveland is just 2-8 against the spread this season, and 0-7 against the spread as a home underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 15.0 points per game.  The books haven't been able to set their numbers high enough.

The Steelers crushed the Browns in both meetings last season, winning by 21 at home and 16 on the road.  They can't afford to overlook the Browns this week after four straight losses.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here given the situation.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost once against the spread this season.  The betting public is all over the Cowboys now and it's clear that they are way overvalued moving forward.  It's time to sell high on the Cowboys this week.

I like getting a full touchdown with the Ravens here.  Baltimore games have been extremely close over the past few seasons.  A ridiculous 23 of their last 26 games have been decided by eight points or less, so essentially just one score.  I also like the fact that they are getting extra time to prepare for this game after dominating the Browns by 21 last Thursday.  John Harbaugh is 15-3 straight up when given at least 10 days to prepare for a team.

The Ravens have a chance to pull off the upset in this game because of their defense.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 282 yards per game.  They also rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 71 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  They should be able to slow down Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' rushing attack.

I also question the Cowboys motivation this week.  They are coming off a huge road win against the Steelers in which they were lucky to win because the Steelers beat themselves by going for four two-point conversions and missing on all four.  Had they simply kicked the extra point on all four, that game would have played out much differently.

So, the Cowboys are in a letdown spot off that huge win, plus they have a big divisional game against the Redskins on deck Thursday on Thanksgiving.  I think they could be overlooking the Ravens just enough this week to not only fail to cover this 7.5-point spread, but likely lose this game outright.

Jason Garrett is 10-24 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Ravens are 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL this season.  They have gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and they lead the NFL in turnover differential with an insane plus-14 margin.  If not for the good breaks in the turnover department, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

That was clearly on display last week as the Chiefs came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 20-17 by outscoring them 17-0 in the final quarter.  The Panthers simply gave that game away as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, and Kelvin Benjamin fumbled in his own territory to set up the Chiefs' game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 33.3 yards per game.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers rank worse.  They have been outgained in six of their last eight games overall.  They were even outgained by 218 yards by the Jaguars at home two weeks ago, yet somehow found a way to win 19-14 in another game they should have lost.

Coming off their fifth straight victory, the Chiefs are way overvalued now here as 7.5-point favorites.  That was a huge win at Carolina, and with a road game at Denver on deck next week, that makes this a sandwich game and a tough spot for the Chiefs.  I don't expect them to be laying it all on the line this week, and I certainly don't expect them to win by more than a touchdown, let alone win the game at all.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have new life now following their most dominant win of the season, a 36-10 home victory over the Chicago Bears in which their defense forced four turnovers and held the Bears to just 283 total yards.  Now the Bucs only trail the Falcons by two games in the division after Atlanta lost last week.

Doug Martin returned to the lineup last week, and he's one of the more underrated running backs in the league.  When he has been healthy, the Bucs have been tough to stop.  They put up 360 yards on the Bears last week, and James Winston had one of his best games.  he completed 23 of 33 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

The Chiefs have been abysmal on offense this season.  Alex Smith averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt against the Panthers last week and had only one completion of more than 20 yards.  He did not throw a touchdown pass, but did throw an interception.  Their lack of explosive plays makes them way too predictable because Smith hasn't been able to stretch the field, and that's not going to magically change this week.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.  The Bucs are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 11.  Tampa Bay is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Chiefs are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* Rhode Island/Duke CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +8

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry.

But then I got back on Rhode Island yesterday against Cincinnati because I thought they were undervalued off the non-cover against Brown.  And the Rams delivered with a 76-71 win over Cincinnati as 2-point underdogs.  Now they are 4-0 and out to prove that they are one of the top teams in the country against Duke today.

Duke is overvalued already due to being ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.  But this team is far from full strength as they are forced to play players big minutes due to injury.  They are without star freshmen Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden already.

Then, in their 78-68 win over Penn State yesterday as 19-point favorites, both Grayson Allen and Chase Jeter suffered injuries.  Allen is expected to play through his toe injury today, but Jeter is doubtful with his ankle injury.  Only six players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game this season, and Jeter is one of them, so his loss is big.  And if Allen is hampered at all that's a huge loss because he is their best player.

The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Duke is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Bet Rhode Island Sunday.

15* USC/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +13.5

The USC Trojans are coming off their biggest win of the season last week.  They beat then-No. 4 Washington 26-13 as 10-point road underdogs with ESPN's College Game Day on site.  Now they're primed for a huge letdown here as they take on UCLA the following week.

The Trojans have become way overvalued now due to going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Give them credit for turning things around, but the only impressive win was Washington as they played four home games and Arizona as their only other road game during this stretch.

UCLA is looking at this game likes its 'Super Bowl' this week.  Things haven't gone how the Bruins had hoped, but they certainly aren't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate.  In fact, all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, and that fact alone makes me love getting 13.5 points with them here.

The Bruins will be up for this game because they still have a chance to make a bowl if they can win their final two games.  And they play Cal next week, so that's very possible.  Plus, they would like to put a damper on their biggest rivals' season here by beating USC and ending their winning streak.  And the Trojans have only a very small chance of playing in the Pac-12 title game, so they don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, which gives it a chance to pull off the upset.  The UCLA pass defense is 6th in the country in efficiency.  It has only allowed eight touchdown passes all season with 13 interceptions while giving up only 5.5 yards per attempt.  The Bruins will be perhaps Sam Darnold's biggest test yet because of this pass defense.

Jim Mora is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against USC as the head coach at UCLA, with the three covers coming by an average of 18 points per game.  The home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to UCLA.

Plays against a road team (USC) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a very tough spot here.  They are returning for their first home games followign a four-game road trip.  And they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.

After three straight road wins over Utah, the LA Clippers and Dallas, the Grizzlies are clearly primed for a letdown spot here.  The Timberwolves come on on a days' rest after throttling the 76ers 110-86 at home on Thursday.  This team is only going to continue to get better as the season goes on.

These teams have already played twice this season.  Minnesota blew a 20-plus point lead early in a 98-102 loss at Memphis, but bounced back with a 116-80 home win over the Grizzlies in the next meeting.  It's clear by those two results that the T'Wolves match up well with them, and this is certainly a favorable situation given the Grizzlies are running on fumes.

Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Florida PK

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost their second controversial game last week.  They fell 31-38 at Houston earlier this season, and then they lost 40-42 at Navy last week.  Now the Golden Hurricane essentially have no chance of winning the AAC West division.  With that realization this week, I fully expect them to suffer a hangover effect from the Navy loss.

And the UCF Knights are one of the best stories this season.  They didn't win a single game last year, but now former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost has them sitting at 6-4 and ready to go bowling.  And now this is Senior Day for a group of veterans that can take some huge responsibility for this turnaround.  They atmosphere will be great for the home team Saturday.

And UCF has really impressed me this year.  Its only blowout loss came at Michigan in the second game of the season.  The other three losses have come to Maryland (in OT), Temple (by 1) and Houston (by 7 on the road).  Temple and Houston are probably the two best teams in the AAC in my opinion, and they easily could have beaten them both.

But the Knights just keep getting better.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Tulane (37-6) and Cincinnati (24-3).  They have by far the superior defense in this matchup as they only allow 20.6 points per game, 360 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Tulsa gives up 32.1 points per game, 435 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.

UCF actually played Tulsa tough last year despite going 0-12.  The Knights lost 30-45 on the road as 17-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 13 yards in that contest.  And they won 31-7 at home over Tulsa in 2014.  I think they get their revenge from last season's loss against a Tulsa team in a terrible frame of mind right now.

The Knights are 8-2 ATS in all games this season, 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings as well, so home-field advantage has been huge.  Take Central Florida Saturday.

25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -4

Colorado has been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread as the lines have just failed to catch up with them.  Their only non-cover was a 10-point home win over UCLA as 13.5-point favorites a few weeks ago.  I love this team and I've backed them a few times this season without fading them once.

I love the situation in this game as well.  Colorado is in control of its own destiny to win the Pac-12 South.  If they win out against Washington State and Utah at home the next two games, the Buffaloes will be going to the conference championship game.

Conversely, Washington State essentially has nothing to play for this week.  The Cougars can lose this game and then beat Washington next week and win the Pac-12 North.  And I can't help but think they'll be looking ahead to that Apple Cup showdown given the situation.

Colorado's only two losses this season both came on the road at Michigan and at USC, but they played both teams tough and covered the spread in each.  The Buffaloes are 4-0 at home and winning by a whopping 31 points per game this season.

The staple of the Buffaloes has been their defense, which is one of the best in the country.  They are only giving up 18 points and 307 yards per game.  They're holding opponents to 10 points and 91 yards per game less than their season averages, and they have a tremendous pass rush.  They have forced a turnover in an FBS-best 23 consecutive games coming in.

The Buffaloes certainly have the recipe to slow down Luke Falk and Washington State's Air Raid passing attack.  They have one of the best secondary's in the land with a couple of NFL prospects.  They only give up 175 passing yards per game and 50% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They rank 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense.  And they get a break here because Cougars star receiver River Cracraft (53 receptions, 701 yards, 5 TDs) is now out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

There's a reason why Washington State is only No. 22 in the playoff rankings while Colorado is No. 10.  It's because the Cougars have faced such an easy schedule this season.  They haven't had to play Colorado, USC or Washington yet, which are the three best teams in the conference.  This will be by far the Cougars' toughest test of the season to date.  I really like the Buffaloes as only 4-point favorites here, especially given the motivational angles in terms of winning the Pac-12.

Washington State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  Colorado is 8-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.  Mike Leach is 3-12 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +23

Indiana's 31-45 loss to Penn State was very misleading last week.  The Hoosiers actually led by 3 with under four minutes to play, but then gave up 17 unanswered points in the final four minutes, including a sack-fumble that was returned for a touchdown on one of the final plays of the game.  But that misleading final has created some line value here with Indiana.

Many feel that Michigan is going to bounce back from its loss to Iowa in a big way, but Indiana is no pushover.  The Hoosiers have played the best teams in the Big Ten tough over the past two seasons.  I love the Hoosiers in the big underdog role.  I cashed them as 28.5-point underdogs in a 21-point loss at Ohio State, which was a closer game than the final score as well.  It was also by far the most that Indiana has lost any game this season.

Indiana still needs another win to get bowl eligible.  And the Hoosiers have not forgotten what happened to them against Michigan last year.  They gave up a touchdown with only 2 seconds left in regulation and wound up losing in double-overtime.  They want revenge here and would love to ruin Michigan's season.

Everyone expected John O'Korn to win the starting QB job for Michigan in the offseason.  So the fact that Wilton Speight won it says a lot about what Jim Harbaugh thinks of O'Korn.  It's a big downgrade for the Wolverines now that Speight is out for the season with a broken collarbone suffered in that 13-14 loss at Iowa.

I expect a very conservative game plan for the Wolverines' offense this week, which is going to make it even tougher for them to cover this big number.  That means the Wolverines are going to run the ball more and take the ball out of O'Korn's hands.  And Indiana has been tremendous against the run.  The Hoosiers give up 156 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against opponents that average 183 yards per game and 4.5 per carry, holding opponents to 27 yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages.

The Hoosiers are outgaining conference opponents by 37 yards per game this season.  Their offense averages 6.1 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  Their defense gives up 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Hoosiers are much better than they are getting credit for here.

And with their 'game of the year' against Ohio State on deck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolverines looking ahead to that game at least a little this week.  Michigan is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Take Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +9.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are in a huge letdown spot this week after their 43-42 upset road victory over the No. 2 Clemson Tigers as 21-point underdogs.  Now they are 6-4 on the season and have their bowl game wrapped up, but they can't win the Coastal Title.  It's their biggest win in a decade since they upset West Virginia in 2007.

Duke is also coming off a huge upset win over rival North Carolina 28-27 as 11-point underdogs.  However, I don't expect a letdown from the Blue Devils because they sit at 4-6 and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Plus, they beat UNC last Thursday, giving them a few extra days to get over that win and move on to Pittsburgh.

Duke is year in and year out one of the most underrated teams in college football because head coach David Cutcliffe absolutely gets the most out of his players.  And the Blue Devils have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, beating Army 13-6 as 5-point favorites, losing to Louisville by 10 as 35-point dogs, losing to Georgia Tech by 3 as 6.5-point dogs, losing to VA Tech by 3 as 13-point dogs, and then upsetting UNC as 11-point dogs.

The Blue Devils are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorites.  And one thing that's getting overlooked here is the loss of Pitt's best player on defense in safety Jordan Whitehead.  He led the team in tackles last year, and he leads them in tackles again this season, so his season-ending loss suffered against Clemson is a huge blow.

Pittsburgh definitely deserved to cover against Clemson last week, but that was a very misleading final score.  The Panthers were outgained by 166 yards by Clemson and gave up 630 total yards.  Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions in the end zone when the Tigers were going in to score.

I really like what I've seen from this Duke offense of late.  Quarterback Daniel Jones is getting better and better.  He has 267 rushing yards and 693 passing yards the last three weeks alone.  Jones opened the season with six touchdowns against eight interceptions, but he has a 6-to-1 ratio since and will be up against a Pitt defense that ranks 110th against the pass while allowing 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this season over a Power 5 school.  The dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt this season.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Rhode Island Top 25 No-Brainer on Rhode Island +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry, and I think that non-cover has the Rams undervalued going into this showdown with Cincinnati.

After the Brown game, coach Dan Hurley, clearly not pleased, left all of his players in the locker room instead of bringing two with him when he met the media. He called the defensive play of his guards "pathetic." "We shot damn near 60 percent from the field (57.7 percent) and we just got outhustled," said Hurley.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing only their second game in eight days over the past two seasons.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana-Monroe +25.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers just had their dreams of winning the Sun Belt crushed last week with a heartbreaking 24-28 road loss to the Troy Trojans.  Now they can only play for a share of the title at best, and would need Arkansas State to lose to get that.

The Mountaineers aren't going to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat Louisiana Monroe by more than 25.5 points Saturday.  They'd be plenty content with just winning the game, and even that may be a struggle with the mental state they are in right now.

Louisiana-Monroe is a team that has been steadily improving as the season has gone on.  The Warhawks are coming off back-to-back big upset victories to prove that they have not quit.  They beat South Alabama 42-35 as 9.5-point road underdogs, and Georgia State 37-23 as 12.5-point road underdogs.

South Alabama actually beat San Diego State by 18 points at home earlier this season while also knocking off Mississippi State on the road, so that win over the Jaguars was impressive.  And Appalachian State beat Georgia State by 14 at home, while Monroe beat them by 14 on the road.

There's no question Appalachian State is the better team here, but being 25.5 points better is another story.  These teams have four common opponents this season.  Appalachian State is 4-0 against them winning by 20 points per game and outgaining them by 180 yards per game.  Monroe is 2-2 against them, outscoring them by 4 points per game and outgaining them by 50 yards per game.  By those common opponent Appalachian State has been 16 points better than Monroe, and that's about where I think this spread should be is in the 16-point range, not 25.5.

Appalachian State really doesn't have the firepower offensively to be laying this kind of weight.  It is only averaging 27.0 points, 391 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  Monroe's offense has improved dramatically of late, averaging 39.5 points and 458.5 yards per game in its last two.

Appalachian State is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.  Monroe is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Warhawks.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +10

The Iowa Hawkeyes won their 'Super Bowl' last week by upsetting Michigan 14-13 at home as 24-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to suffer a huge letdown this week off such a big win, and now they're being asked to go on the road and win a conference game by double-digits.

Iowa had previously lost 14-41 at Penn State on the road while getting outgained by 365 yards.  They were also outgained by 187 yards in a 9-17 home loss to Wisconsin the week before.  It seems like the oddsmakers are forgetting those performances with the line they have set just because Iowa beat Michigan.

But let's be honest, Michigan really gave that game away.  Quarterback Wilton Speight missed several open receivers running free deep for touchdowns.  And Speight broke his collarbone in the second half, but remained in the game.  What should have been a Michigan blowout turned into an upset because of it.

Iowa's offense is still extremely limited.  It completed only eight passes against Michigan for 66 yards.  And five of those passes were caught by running back Akrum Wadley, who was the hero for a day.  But the Hawkeyes have averages just 12.3 points, 233.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play in their last three games.  They don't have the offense to warrant being 10-point road favorites here.

Adding to the value here is that Illinois is coming off a blowout 3-48 loss at Wisconsin last week in which it committed four turnovers and the game got away from them.  But the Fighting Illini beat Michigan State 31-27 at home the week before.  And now this will be their final home game of the season, so the seniors are going to be highly motivated to win on Senior Day.

After playing three straight big-time opponents in Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan, and with rival Nebraska at home on deck, that makes this tough spot for the Hawkeyes.  They just clinched bowl eligibility with that win last week so they don't need this win because they can't win their division anyway.  This is clearly a sandwich game here for the Hawkeyes.

When you look at the numbers, this is actually a pretty evenly-matched game.  The Fighting Illini average 5.6 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Iowa averages 5.2 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  So the Hawkeyes have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis, while the Fighting Illini have broke even.

And it's worth noting that star QB Wes Lunt has missed significant time this season due to injury.  But he's healthy now and will makes a huge difference for this team when he's in the lineup.  He has thrown six touchdowns against one interception, while backup Jeff George has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt.

Last year Illinois covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Iowa in a 20-29 loss.  Lunt threw for 317 yards and a touchdown in that game.  That's important because Iowa was a much better team last year than it is this season.  It went 12-0 in the regular season.  So we have basically the same 10-point spread here, but Illinois is at home this time around.

Iowa is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Illinois.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette +23

The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off their biggest win of the season in a huge rivalry game against Auburn.  They won 13-7 and shut down Auburn's offense, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs.  But now off that huge win, and with another rival on deck in Georgia Tech, I expect Georgia to fall flat here.

The Bulldogs just don't have the offense to be laying this many points.  They only average 22.6 points per game, 379 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.  Georgia hasn't won a game by more than 14 points all season, and they only beat FSC foe Nicholls State by two points.

Louisiana-Lafayette has gotten it going over the past few weeks.  They have won two of their last three win a 27-3 victory at Texas State, and a 33-26 win at Georgia Southern.  They managed to hold Georgia Southern, a team known for its rushing attack, to just 52 yards on 28 carries last week.

That's key because the Rajin' Cajuns actually have one of the best run defenses in the country, and Georgia relies on its running game to move the football.  The Rajin' Cajuns rank 20th nationally against the run, giving up just 115 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

They are going to be able to get some stops in this contest, and they certainly want this game more than Georgia does.  I also like the fact that Lafayette has played its best football on the road this season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game.

Plays on a road team (LA LAFAYETTE) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Lafayette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off four consecutive games in which it committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Rajin' Cajuns are taking care of the football and are going to make the Bulldogs work for everything they get.  This game will be much closer than the books anticipate.  The Ragin' Cajuns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early Riser on UTSA +27.5

The Texas A&M Aggies are an absolute mess right now.  Since debuting at No. 4 in the playoff rankings, they have completely fallen apart by losing their last two games despite being favored.  They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, then blew a big lead in a 28-29 home loss to Ole Miss last week as 6.5-point favorites.

Now what to the Aggies have to play for?  They could care less about this game against UTSA this week because they know a win over them isn't going to make up for this blown opportunity.  They could also be looking ahead to the showdown with LSU next week.  Either way, I don't expect them to be interested enough to put away a game UTSA team by four or more touchdowns this week.

We are getting some extra line value here with UTSA because of its misleading 35-63 loss at Louisiana Tech last week.  The Roadrunners trailed by 14 late in that game, but the Bulldogs returned an onside kick for a touchdown, and then scored on a QB sneak in the final seconds when they could have just kneeled on it, covering the 23-point spread as a result.

But UTSA has shown me it can play with some very good teams.  It won 45-25 as 19.5-point road dogs at Middle Tennessee, beat Southern Miss 55-32 as 17-point home dogs, and only lost to Arizona State 28-32 as 21-point home dogs.

UTSA will put up some points in this game with an offense that has scored at least 31 points in four straight and five of its last six.  Quarterback Dalton Sturn has thrown for 1,748 yards with 16 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores.  Running backs Jalen Rhodes and Jarveon Williams have combined for 1,384 rushing yards and 16 scores as well.

The fans are feeling pretty down in College Station right now.  And I highly the atmosphere will be too great at Kyle Field for an 11 a.m. local kickoff.  UTSA will be looking to make its mark in the state and build its brand.  The Aggies are the more talented team, but the Roadrunners will give them a fight for four quarters.

Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS following two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seaosns.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Roadrunners.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +28.5

Tony Sanchez is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country at UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels are now 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility, so they will certainly show up tonight trying to pull off the upset.

The Rebels are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 69-66 (triple-OT) thriller over Wyoming.  They racked up 653 yards of total offense, which is the second-most in school history, and punished the Cowboys for 401 rushing yards.  That's the same Wyoming team that beat Boise State 30-28 earlier this season.

Junior quarterback Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and three scores, and also rushing for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Boise State simply does not have the same home-field advantage it used to when Chris Peterson was running the show.  In fact, the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games.  They haven't beaten anyone by more than 14 at home this year, and that's important because they have been favored by 13, 24, 28, 7 and 31 points in their five home games.

UNLV boasts an offense that is putting up 34.4 points per game and 253 rushing yards per game at 5.7 per carry.  It can stay competitive in this game with its running game by shortening the game and keeping the clock and the chains moving.

Boise State has certainly been susceptible to the run at times this season and is allowing 165 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos have given up at least 215 rushing yards in each of their last three games against Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii, and they allowed 382 to New Mexico earlier this season.

The Broncos are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Rebels are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take UNLV Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an absolute dumpster fire right now.  They are just 2-8 on the season and have rarely been competitive.  Their roster was already below-average prior to the season, but now with all the injuries they are dealing with, it's one of the worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are now without their offensive spark plug in J.J. Barea, who suffered a strained calf last time out.  The Mavericks are already without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles soreness) and Devin Harris (toe), and Deron Williams (strained calf) had to leave Wednesday's game before halftime after returning from a four-game absence.  Williams is doubtful to play tonight.  Those are four key players that they just can't afford to be without.

Conversely, the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to get healthy with the return of Chandler Parsons.  And they are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have pulled off huge upsets in their last two games, winning 102-96 in Utah as 6-point dogs, and 111-107 on the road over the Los Angeles Clippers as 12.5-point dogs.

The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Dallas is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.