Winning Sports Picks

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo +5

Favorites in primetime games this year have made the betting public a ton of money. I believe that’s a contributing factor as to why the Dolphins are 5-point home favorites over the Bills in this one as the books don’t want to get burnt again. That’s a big reason why the Bills are showing value this week as 5-point dogs when they should only be 3-point dogs at the most when you factor in home-field advantage as I believe these are pretty equal teams.

Buffalo is gone 3-2 since Kyle Orton became the starting quarterback. Its only losses have come to New England and Kansas City, which are two of the best teams in the AFC. It also went on the road and beat Detroit 17-14 in his first start, which is in my opinion the best team in the NFC. Orton has thrown for over 250 yards in four of his five starts this year to really pick up the offense.

That game against the Chiefs last week should have gone the Bills’ way, but they let a 13-3 lead slip away from them due to committing three turnovers and losing by a final of 13-17. They outplayed the Chiefs, outgaining them 364-278 for the game, or by 86 total yards. I believe that loss is also a contributing factor as to why this spread is at 5 instead of 3.

While Buffalo should have won last week, Miami should never have had a chance to beat Detroit. It was dominated in the box score in that game, getting outgained 228-351 by the Lions, or by 129 total yards. The only reason it was close was due to a blocked field goal by the Dolphins that they returned to the 3-yard line to set up their only touchdown of the game. That was a 10-point swing in the game at the time.

Miami is still getting a lot of respect for its three-game winning streak prior to that loss to Detroit against the likes of Chicago, Jacksonville and San Diego. Well, all three of those wins are looking worse and worse by the week as the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers are all broken right now. The only real impressive win the Dolphins have this season was back in Week 1 against the Patriots back when New England was broken as well.

Buffalo simply has Miami figured out. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Dolphins, outscoring them a combined 71-31 in the process. They have also outgained them 973 (324.3 yards/game) to 686 (228.7 yards/game), or by an average of 95.6 yards per game. Their defense clearly has this Miami offense figured out, limiting them to just 10.3 points per game in their three consecutive victories.

The Dolphins have been relying on the pass quite a bit this season in their new offense. Well, the Bills have held four of their last five opponents to less than 200 yards passing, which is no small feat in today’s game. For the season, the Bills are surrendering just 20.2 points and 319.9 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense.

The Bills are allowing 96 per game and 3.7 per carry on the ground, and 224 per game and 6.2 per attempt through the air, which are both elite numbers.  This will likely be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between two solid defensive teams, which also favors the underdog.

Buffalo is 42-24 ATS in its last 66 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. Miami is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after covering the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Bulls/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Bulls are 6-2 this season while the Raptors are 7-1.  A big reason for both of their successes is because they each get after it on the defensive end of the court.

The Bulls are holding teams to 98.4 points per game and 42.7% shooting.  The Raptors are limiting foes to 96.4 points per game and 46.2% shooting.  Toronto ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 12th.

These teams have been prone to defensive battles when they have gotten together recently.  They have combined for 186 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They are averaging a combined 177.4 points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  There is clearly a ton of value in this under based on that alone.

Chicago is 13-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or less assists over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 15-3 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Raptors last 27 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight for many more reasons other than the fact that the defensive intensity will be amplified considering this is a National TV game.

The Houston Rockets haven't missed a beat this season since trading away Chandler Parsons and replacing him with Trevor Ariza.  They got an upgrade on defense and a slight downgrade on offense.  Arizona has been a big reason for their early success en route to a 6-1 record thus far.

The Rockets actually lead the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 92.5 points per 100 possessions.  They haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points yet, giving up just 90.9 points per game on 40.7% shooting.  That's a big reason why they are 7-0 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Minnesota has quietly been competitive this year, but it suffered a huge blow when starting point guard Ricky Rubio suffered a serious ankle injury a couple games ago that's going to keep him out for a couple of weeks.  It hurts their offense tremendously, but they actually become a better defensive team without Rubio on the floor.

That has been evident in the two games since Rubio got hurt.  Minnesota was tied with Orlando 94-94 at the end of regulation on November 7th for 188 combined points before overtime.  It lost 92-102 at Miami the next night in two games that would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime.  The Timberwolves shot just 43.0% from the field against the Magic, and 40.2% against the Heat.

Houston has combined for 199 or fewer points with all seven of its opponents this season, while Minnesota has combined for 194 or fewer combined points with four of its six opponents this season when you don't count overtime.  These two facts alone show that there is value in backing the UNDER 200.5 points in this game.

Minnesota is 21-9 to the UNDER as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in two more more consecutive games coming in.  The Rockets are 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are hated rivals who have met in the Eastern Conference Finals each of the last two years.  These games are always played closer to the vest, and the defensive intensity will be there because of it.  That's especially the case considering this game will be shown on National TV.

The difference this year is that both teams are without a ton of their scoring from last season.  The Heat are without Lebron James and Ray Allen, while the Pacers are currently playing without Paul George, David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.

To no surprise, Indiana has really struggled offensively this year.  It is scoring just 93.0 points per game on 42.6% shooting, which includes an overtime game.  It has failed to score more than 98 points in any game this season.

What I like about this play is that both teams play at very slow paces.  Not surprisingly, Indiana ranks 27th in the league in pace at 93.4 possessions per game.  It also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Miami isn't looking to get up and down the floor to put up a ton of shots, either.  It ranks 21st in the league in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  It has shot 48.1% from the field this year, which is very impressive, but it's also unsustainable moving forward.

The Pacers and Heat have combined for 191 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 meetings overall.  I certainly do not foresee them getting to 190 tonight given the circumstances for the Pacers, who simply have no offensive firepower with all of their injuries.  They know they have to try to win games by limiting possessions, which is what they will try and do again tonight.

Indiana is 20-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 77-47 to the UNDER in its last 124 games following a game where it made 55% of its shots or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as these are two teams with two of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.

As you know, the Thunder are playing without their two superstars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  However, they are also playing without Andre Roberson and Perry Jones, so they really lack playmakers right now. 

The Thunder are only shooting 44.7% from the floor while averaging 92.0 points per game offensively.  They have been lost on offense, which is why they rank 24th in the league in pace, averaging just 94.0 possessions per game.  They are tied for 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City has had to make up for it on the defensive end, where it has been solid.  Opponents are only scoring 98.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting against them.  They have Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams holding down the fort inside.

Milwaukee hasn't been very good offensively, either.  It is averaging just 93.9 points per game on 43.6% shooting.  It ranks 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Like the Thunder, they have made up for it on the defensive end.  They are giving up just 94.7 points per game on 43.0% shooting this year.  They have Larry Sanders protecting the paint for them as he is back and healthy this year, which has made a huge difference for their defense.

 The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  The last three have been very low-scoring as they combined for 186, 171 and 184 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle between these two for a fourth straight meetings tonight.

Milwaukee is 8-0 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder's last six road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +7

Despite their 3-5-1 start, the Carolina Panthers have plenty to look forward to the rest of the season.  That's because they play in one of the worst divisions in football, and they are actually just a half-game out of first place (Saints, 4-5).

The Panthers will be in a good frame of mind heading into this game against the Philadelphia Eagles because of it.  Also helping matters is that they have had three extra days of rest as they last played on Thursday against the Saints.

That extra rest has allowed some key players for the Panthers to get healthy.  T Byron Bell, G Amini Silatolu and G Trai Turner all missed the Saints' game with injuries.  Both Bell and Silatolu are probable to return, while Turner is still questionable.  On defense, safety Thomas DeCoud is expected back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Saints' game.  Also, the running back corps finally has a healthy Ryan Williams and Jonathan Stewart working together.

Philadelphia has injury concerns of its own.  They are without starting quarterback Nick Foles for six weeks and defensive Captain DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the season.  Right guard Todd Herremans is also reportedly out for the season and will have surgery to repair a torn biceps.

Mark Sanchez will replace Foles, and while this is a system offense and a lot of quarterbacks would succeed in it, I just don't believe that Sanchez is as good as Foles.  He has thrown 77 touchdowns and 72 picks as a starter in the National Football League dating back to his time with the Jets.  He threw two picks in limited action against the Texans last week and cannot be trusted.

The loss of Ryans may be the biggest of them all as he was the unquestioned leader of the defense and had a team-high 45 tackles before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon on Sunday.  The Eagles rank 20th against the run and will have a hard time stopping the Panthers' ground attack, which will get a boost with the return of a couple starting linemen and a healthy backfield.

Coach Ron Rivera isn't about to give up on the Panthers.  "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," he said. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things."

This line opened at Eagles -5.5 and the betting public has been all over the favorites, betting them up to the current line of -7.  That means we have passed two key numbers of 6 and 7, and that's big when we talk about value in the NFL.  There is clearly some value here in backing the Panthers as touchdown underdogs because of this line move.

Oddsmakers realize that the betting public knows that Carolina has not played well of late, forcing them to set this line so high.  Well, a closer look at the schedule shows why as the Panthers have faced the likes of the Packers, Seahawks and Saints the last three weeks, respectively.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.

Carolina is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards per game or more in the second half of the season.  Te Panthers are 20-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC foes.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

The Arizona Cardinals are currently the most overrated team in the NFL in my opinion due to their 7-1 start. Asking them to lay a touchdown here against a division opponent that is playing good football right now is asking too much. I’ll side with the points and the Rams in a game that will likely go right down to the wire.

The reason I believe the Cardinals are overrated is because when you look at everything outside of their record, the stats show that they are only a mediocre team in this league. In fact, the Cardinals rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 36.0 yards per game. They are only averaging 330.4 yards of offense and giving up 366.4 yards per game on defense.

Teams that get outgained by 36.0 yards per game would usually have a losing record on the season. In fact, all of the teams that rank 24th or worse in yardage differential behind the Cardinals have losing records with the exception of the 24th-place Cleveland Browns, who have also been fortunate to have the record that they do. The Cardinals have only committed six turnovers this year and have a +10 turnover differential on the season. That is simply unsustainable, and they will regress to the mean the rest of the way.

Considering St. Louis has beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in two of its last three games, it is fully capable of going into Arizona and pulling off the upset, let alone covering the 7-point spread. The Rams finally showed what their defense is capable of against the 49ers last week, limiting them to just 263 total yards while sacking Colin Kaepernick eight times. They will get after the much more immobile Carson Palmer in this one.

St. Louis has actually owned Arizona the last two years. It has won three of its last four meetings with the Cardinals, including two by exactly 14 points. It has held Arizona to an average of 14.7 points per game in the three wins, and I look for its defense to shut down this suspect Cardinals’ offense one again in their first meeting of 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 10 games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -8

After failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games coming into this one, I believe there is actually some value in backing the Seattle Seahawks this week as only 8-point home favorites against the New York Giants. They lost to both Dallas and St. Louis before beating Carolina and Oakland by a combined 10 points the last two weeks. The betting public has been killed backing them, so they are actually afraid to support them with their money again, which has kept this line lower than it should be.

However, anyone who watched that game against the Raiders last week knows that Oakland was fortunate to cover. They trailed that game 24-3 at halftime before outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 the rest of the way to get the backdoor cover. The Seahawks simply let their foot off the gas. They still held the Raiders to just 226 total yards while forcing three turnovers, and there’s no way the Raiders should have scored 24 points with those numbers.

It was the third straight dominant performance for the Seattle D, which appears to be returning to its Super Bowl form from a year ago. It held St. Louis to 272 yards, Carolina to 266 yards, and Oakland to 226 yards in its last three games, respectively. It now ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense at 304.9 yards per game. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL despite the shaky start to the season, which has been more attributed to a tough schedule than anything.

New York, on the other hand, has been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last three weeks. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in losses to the Eagles (27-0), Cowboys (31-21) and Colts (24-40), getting outscored a combined 45-98 in the process, or by an average of 17.7 points per game. Its defense has been shredded in four straight games now.

The Giants gave up 397 yards to the Falcons, 448 yards to the Eagles, 423 yards to the Cowboys, and 443 yards to the Colts in their last four games, respectively. They have given up averages of 29.5 points and 427.8 yards per game during this stretch. They cannot stop anybody, which leaves them prone to the blowout, especially this week in a hostile environment in Seattle where the Seahawks have only lost twice over the past two seasons combined.

New York hasn’t been very good offensively since losing star receiver Victory Cruz, either. It is averaging just 15.0 points in its last three games overall. That even includes the 14 points the Giants scored against the Colts last week in garbage time in the fourth quarter. They actually trailed that game 40-10 before the Colts pulled their defensive starters, and the Giants got most of their offensive output for the entire came in the final 10 minutes. They are going to struggle offensively once again this week against a top-notch Seattle defense.

This will be a tough trip from the East Coast to the West Coast for the Giants for a late-afternoon start. Adding to that is the fact that they will be working on a short week after playing Indianapolis on Monday.  The Seahawks dominated the Giants in their 23-0 road win last season. They outgained them 327-181 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Eli Manning went 18 of 31 passing for 156 yards with a whopping five interceptions in the loss.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New York is 19-43-2 ATS in its last 64 November games. Seattle is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions -2.5

The Detroit Lions have shown me enough thus far in 2014 to make me believe that they are arguably the best team in the NFC. To get to 6-2 without having two of its superstars in Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for an extended period of time is simply remarkable. The Lions are certainly a sleeper to win the Super Bowl and should not be taken lightly the rest of the way.

That’s especially the case considering both Johnson and Bush had an extra week off to get healthy coming into this game. The Lions will be returning from their bye after beating the Falcons over in London, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go. Both Johnson and Bush are listed as probable, and it’s going to be fun to watch what this offense can do with these two finally healthy again.

The reason the Lions have had so much success despite mediocre production on offense is their performance on the other side of the football. The Lions are giving up just 15.7 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total defense at 290.4 yards per game. They will certainly make life miserable on Ryan Tannehill and this Miami offense this week.

While I’ll admit that the Dolphins are a very good team with impressive numbers up to this point, they are simply overvalued this week off their 37-0 win against San Diego last week. Sure, the Dolphins have won three straight games coming in against the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers, but they have been gift-wrapped those wins. They have a combined +9 turnover differential in their last three games, and that is simply unsustainable moving forward.  Miami is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

The Dolphins have some bad injury news of their own to deal with this week. Knowshon Moreno was already out for the season with a knee injury, but now starting running back Lamar Miller is banged up. Miller left the Week 9 win against the Chargers with a shoulder injury and did not return. He is questionable to play this week, leaving the Dolphins very thin in the backfield.

Miami is going to be forced to be a one-dimensional team this week not only because of the injuries to its running backs, but also because the Lions don’t allow an inch on the ground. They rank 2nd in the league against the run, allowing just 74.0 yards per game and 3.3 per carry. With two weeks to prepare for this new Miami offense, the Lions will be ready to slow down Tannehill and company.

Plays against road teams (MIAMI) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -2.5

It’s amazing to think that the Falcons still feel like they have a shot to win the NFC South, but such is life in this poor division. The Falcons are very much alive for the division title as they trail the New Orleans Saints by just two games for first place. They also currently hold the tiebreaker over the Saints after beating them in Week 1.

This bye week came at a great time for Atlanta, which can clear its mind of what happened in the first half of the season and focus on making a run in the second half. That starts this week with a road game against the Bucs, who are the only team in the division that has been worse than the Falcons. With games against the Panthers and Browns the next two weeks after this, the Falcons have to feel like they can make a run.

Atlanta did play well in its last game against one of the best teams in the NFL over in London. Unfortunately, it blew a 21-0 lead over Detroit and lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 22-21. That Detroit team is now 6-2 and vying for the top spot in the NFC. It was a tough loss, but one that shows what the Falcons are capable of moving forward.

The Bucs would be winless this season if not for a fluke 27-24 win at Pittsburgh back on September 28th. It has lost four in a row coming in, including losses to both the Vikings and Browns the last two weeks. Those two performances followed up a 17-48 home loss to Baltimore on October 12th. This team simply is not that good, and they certainly can’t have a very good outlook going forward right now.

While that 31-point loss to the Ravens was bad, it wasn’t even the biggest loss the Bucs have suffered this season. They were beaten even more handily by Atlanta in the first meeting of the season by a final of 56-14 on the road. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 488-217 for the game in their most impressive effort of the season. Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while the Falcons rushed for 144 yards as a team in the win.

There’s no denying that both teams are bad defensively, but the edge clearly goes to the Falcons on the other side of the football. They rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 375.6 yards per game, while the Bucs rank 31st in total offense at 303.9 yards per game. Matt Ryan still has two of the best weapons in the NFL in Roddy White and Julio Jones as this offense has gotten back on track with these two healthy in 2014.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 85-47 (64.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season are 39-10 (79.6%) ATS since 1983. The Bucs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +10

The Tennessee Titans are showing excellent value this week as they return from their bye as 10-point underdogs to the Ravens. They will be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this one. The Ravens could be in a tough state mentally after their 23-43 loss to division rival Pittsburgh last week. This could be a hangover spot for them, and their confidence has to be shot after that defeat.

Tennessee decided to give the keys to the offense to Zach Mettenberger in its last game against Houston. While it lost that game 16-30, it wasn’t because of poor play from its quarterback this time. Mettenberger turned in the best performance of any Titans’ QB this season, completing 27 of 41 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Having two weeks to learn the offense and get accustomed to run with the first-team will do wonders for the rookie heading into this one.

This Baltimore offense has really struggled the last two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It managed just 294 total yards against the Bengals before posting 332 total yards against the Steelers. Neither of those teams have elite defenses, so those performances were really concerning. I believe the Ravens were a bit of a fraud coming into those games because their five wins this season had come against the likes of the Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Bucs and Falcons.

The Titans are undervalued as we enter the second half of the season. They have played a tough schedule in the first half as four of their six losses have come against teams that currently have winning records and are at least two games over .500 or better. They have also failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them. That’s why oddsmakers have been forced to inflate this line Sunday.

Tennessee has played Baltimore very tough over the years. Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, and the only two that weren’t were blowout wins by the Titans. So, the Titans have not lost by more than 6 points to the Ravens in any of their last eight meetings since 2001. Dating back further, the underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series.

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) – off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (BALTIMORE) – after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or worse) are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Tennessee is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +4

The Jets have been the most disappointing team in the NFL up to this point. They were expected to be much better than 1-8 through their first nine games of the year, and nobody is more disappointed than Rex Ryan. They just have turned the ball over far too often this season while not getting any turnovers themselves. They have committed 18 turnovers while getting just three for a -15 differential.

Teams that have a poor turnover differential in the first half usually turn it around in the second half. Obviously, to only get three turnovers on defense, the Jets have been extremely unlucky this year. Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, but for whatever reason, the ball is just not bouncing their way on either side of the football. I still believe this is a solid team, and the numbers certainly show that.

New York is actually outgaining opponents by an average of 4.9 yards per game. Teams with this kind of differential can usually be found with around a .500 record, or more likely a winning team than a losing one. Instead, the Jets are 1-8 on the year, and I believe they are undervalued heading into the second half of the season. They have shown no quit yet, and I don’t expect them to just pack it in.

The Jets fought tough against Kansas City last week even in a 10-24 loss. They outgained the Chiefs 364-309 for the game and arguably should have won. They kept moving the ball into Kansas City territory in the second half, but could do nothing with it as they were stopped on downs time and time again. Before that, they played tough against both Denver and New England before giving the game away against Buffalo with six turnovers.

With the worst ATS record (1-7-1) in the NFL, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jets right now. That’s why this line opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and was bet up to -5.5 before settling at -4 in most places. That line movement alone shows that there is value in backing the Jets this week. It has passed over a couple of key numbers in 3 and 4. Whenever you get a bargain like this, it’s usually a wise move to take advantage and back the home dog when the public is all over the short road favorite.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is extremely overvalued right now due to its three straight wins and covers coming into this game. All three of those wins came at home, and while the blowout wins over the Colts and Ravens were impressive, the Steelers have no business laying 4 points on the road this week. Pittsburgh is getting outscored 17.5 to 21.2 on the road this season.

The Steelers are in a letdown spot here off a win over their biggest rival in the Ravens, and it's certainly on the mind of Ben Roethlisberger.  "They're a lot better football team than their record looks and their defense is very good," Roethlisberger said of the Jets. "Last week is over. The week before last week is over. We're facing a good defense at their place and so we need to come out and play our best football."  Easier said than done of such a big win.

Plays on underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS since 1983. This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams on extended losing streaks in the second half of the year. The Steelers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pittsburgh is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 14 points or more.  Take the Jets Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Nets UNDER 192

I'm going to side with the UNDER in this game between Atlantic Division rivals Brooklyn and New York Friday night.  I look for defense to shine through in this one as the final combined score of this game stays well below the 192-point total.

New York has played in a bunch of low-scoring games thus far.  It has combined with its opponents for 189 points or fewer in four of its five games this year.  The only exception was the 193-point output against Detroit last time out, but the two teams needed 59 points in the fourth quarter to get to that number.

I predicted that the Knicks would struggle to learn the Triangle Offense early in the season, and that has certainly been the case.  They are only averaging 89.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting.  Players are out of position consistently and still learning how to play with one another within the Triangle.

You can really tell that they are struggling to find good shots offensively because they are eating up the shotclock almost every possession.  In fact, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging just 89.7 possessions per game.  To compare, the No. 1 team in pace is Golden State, which is averaging 103.0 possessions per game.  When a team's possessions are limited, the UNDER is usually a good bet.

Brooklyn has actually played very well on the offensive end this season.  It is shooting 48.3% from the field thus far, but that's going to be tough to keep up moving forward.  Plus, they have played a pretty easy schedule with the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, Thunder and Timberwolves thus far.  Brooklyn ranks right in the middle of the pack in pace (14th), averaging 96.1 possessions per game.

New York is 32-14 to the UNDER in its last 46 games off a game where its opponent grabbed 65 or more rebounds.  Lionel Hollins is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games versus foul-prone teams that are called for 24 or more fouls per game in all games he has coached.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Nets last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

20* Browns/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -6

While the Browns are certainly improved this season, they have benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the league.  This 5-3 team is clearly a fraud, and they will be exploited Thursday night against a much superior Bengals squad.  The Browns have played five home games compared to three road games. 

While the Browns have gone 4-1 at home, they are just 1-2 on the road with their only win coming at Tennessee 29-28 as they had to erase a 25-point deficit to get that win.  They also lost at Pittsburgh 27-30 after trailing in that game by 24 points.  Perhaps the game that most exemplifies the kind of team that Browns are is their 6-24 road loss to Jacksonville, which has proven to be the only win of the season thus far for the Jaguars.

Cincinnati simply does not lose at home.  It is now 12-0-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in all regular season home games over the last two seasons.  The Bengals have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the league.  They are outscoring teams 30.8 to 20.6 at home this season, or by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Their offense is averaging 411.6 yards per game at home this year, and now Andy Dalton has the luxury of a healthy A.J. Green back in the lineup.

Cleveland has not been able to run the football since losing center Alex Mack to a season-ending injury.  Despite playing the Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs the last three weeks, the Browns have only been able to rush for an average of 52.7 yards per game.  It's not like they are abandoning the run, either.  They have gained 158 yards on a whopping 83 carries in their last three games, an average of a mere 1.9 yards per rush.  They are one-dimensional and easy to defend now.

One fact that shows the Browns are not as good as their 5-3 record would indicate is that they rank 24th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 39.5 yards per game.  They are averaging 352.3 yards of offense while giving up 391.8 yards per game on defense.  That's really bad when you consider how easy their schedule has been.

It's also worth noting that the Browns could be without two of their biggest weapons on offense this week.  Tight end Jordan Cameron is doubtful to play with a concussion, while leading receiver Andrew Hawkins (39 receptions, 504 yards, 1 TD) is questionable with a knee injury.  For an offense already short on weapons because Josh Gordon (suspension) remains out, this is very bad news.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Cleveland and Cincinnati as well.  Indeed, the home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings.  Cincinnati beat Cleveland 41-20 at home last year, and a similar beat down can be expected in this one given how poorly the Browns have played on the road this year, and how well the Bengals have played at home.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS after having won three out of their last four games over the past three years.  Cincinnati is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall.  The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 188.5

This is a rematch from the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year.  These Pacers and Wizards know each other inside and out after playing in the playoffs last year, and based on those six games, I can tell that this number has been set too high tonight.

Oddsmakers set every total between Washington and Indiana at 187 points or fewer in the playoffs last year.  Four of the six games went UNDER the total, and each of the last five games in the series saw 187 or fewer combined points.  From Game 6-back, they combined for 173, 181, 187, 148, 168 and 198 points.

The Pacers clearly aren't the same team as they were last year due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without three starters in Paul George, George Hill and David West, and their offense has struggled as a result.

Indiana has has to play a slow-it-down style this year to try to avoid getting blown out.  It ranks just 27th in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is scoring just 91.2 points per game on 42.7% shooting.  Its lack of offensive firepower with all of these injuries is alarming.

Both Washington and Indiana have been strong defensively this season.  Indiana is allowing just 94.2 points per game on the season as it is nearly as strong defensively as it was a year ago even with these losses.  Washington is yielding 96.2 points per contest on the year.

Dating back further, eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.  Indiana is 34-18 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 36-19 to the UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last three years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* MAC Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +6.5

Asking the Akron Zips to win by a touchdown or more to cover against the defending MAC champs is too much. Sure, Bowling Green isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago, but it is still arguably the better team this season at 5-3 compared to the Zips, who are 4-4. I’d much rather take my chances with the road underdog in this one and the points.

The Falcons will have a big edge in this one in the rest department as they last played on October 18th. Meanwhile, the Zips last played on October 25th, so the Falcons have an extra week of preparation for this game under their belts. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the football field in this one and correct their mistakes from a 14-26 loss to Western Michigan last time out.

Akron has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games overall and clearly has been overvalued since an upset win against Pittsburgh. It is coming off two straight outright losses at Ohio (20-23) and at Ball State (21-35) despite being favored in both contests. This team has no business laying a touchdown tonight off its last four performances.

Bowling Green boasts an offense that has put up 31 or more points in six of its eight games this season. It is averaging 33.6 points and 454.7 yards per game on the season. James Knapke has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Johnson, completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also rushing for 157 yards and five scores. Travis Greene (636 yards, 8 TD, 5.0/carry) and Fred Coppet (366 yards, 5 TD, 5.1/carry) have been a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Akron, on the other hand, is putting up just 22.9 points and 382.7 yards per game this year. That’s why it cannot be trusted to lay points because it struggles to put points on the scoreboard itself. The Zips have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of their eight games this season. They only managed 318 yards against Miami (Ohio), 352 yards against Ohio, and 325 yards against Ball State in their last three games, respectively.

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Zips.  They have won four of those five games by 14 points or more as well while outscoring them by an average of 15.0 points per game.  As you can see, this has clearly been a one-sided series in recent years.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Mavericks UNDER 209

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks Monday night.  I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER 209 points in a game that will likely see 200 or fewer combined points by game's end.

These are teams that have played contrasting styles thus far.  Dallas ranked 27th in the league in pace, averaging just 93.0 possessions per game.  Boston ranks 2nd in pace, average 102.8 possessions per contest.  Since this one is being played in Dallas, I look for the home team to control the pace, which will lead to a lower-scoring game.

This number has been inflated because both of these teams have averaged over 100 points per game offensively in the early going.  Dallas leads the league in offensive efficiency, but they won't be able to put up points at the rate they have thus far all season.  Boston clearly can't match the 121 points it put up on Brooklyn in the opener with any regularity, and that was evident in a 90-104 loss at Houston last time out.

The two meetings between Boston and Dallas last year saw 183 and 193 combined points.  Not counting overtime, the last 11 meetings between Boston and Dallas have seen 198 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Colts/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Giants are essentially in a must-win situation here at 3-4 on the season and two games behind both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East. They will bring their best effort to the field Monday night because of it. Also helping that will be the fact that they’ll be coming off their bye with two weeks of rest and preparation for the Colts.

The Giants obviously have not looked great in their last two games against the Eagles and Cowboys following a three-game winning streak. I believe the answer to how good this team is lies somewhere between their last two losses and their previous three blowout wins over the Texans, Redskins and Falcons all by 10 points or more.

With two weeks off coming in, the Giants will play closer to the team that blew out those three opponents than the one that lost their last two games.  Victor Cruz is a big loss, but having two weeks to prepare without him will give the Giants plenty of time to around his absence.  Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham are fine young receivers who will become more of a focal point of the offense, along with tight end Larry Donnell.

Indianapolis was exposed last week in a 34-51 road loss to Pittsburgh. It gave up a ridiculous 639 total yards to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger had a career game, completing 40-of-49 passes for over 500 yards and six touchdowns. Eli Manning, who is becoming a lot more comfortable with this west coast system in New York, should have a field day against this Colts defense as well. After all, it was the fourth time this year that the Colts had surrendered 28 or more points.

The Colts were overvalued last week as 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers on the road. They had come into that contest on a five-game winning streak and were playing very good football. It looks like the betting public is completely overlooking that loss to the Steelers and still pounding the Colts this week.

That’s why the Colts are still 3.5-point road favorites in this game when they shouldn’t even be favored at all.  This line is essentially saying that the Colts would be 6.5 to 7-point favorites on a neutral field, which is way off.  Not only is there value with the Giants, I also like the fact that this game will be played outdoors.  The weather is getting colder in New York and the Colts are used to playing inside the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Plays against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) – after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1983. Tom Coughlin is 30-13 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of New York.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Nets UNDER 192.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG in 2013-14) and Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG).  Until these two return, the Thunder are going to have trouble scoring points.  They are going to have to rely on their defense, which is still elite without these two.

In its first game without these two, Oklahoma City beat Denver at home by a final of 102-91 for 193 combined points.  Don't expect this team to put up 102 points without their two superstars because that performance was an aberration.  The defense was solid as expected in limiting the Nuggets to just 91 points on 43.7% shooting.

In fact, the defense has been very good all season.  The Thunder combined for 195 points with the Blazers, 183 points with the Clippers, and 193 points with the Nuggets.  They are giving up just 96.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting.  Their offense has been atrocious as they are scoring 93.7 points per game on 43.4% shooting.

Brooklyn bounced back from an awful 105-121 loss at Boston with a 102-90 win at Detroit last time out.  It has been without its best player in Brook Lopez for those two games, but he is expected to return tonight.  Lopez is their top rebounder and shot blocker and will certainly help them improve defensively upon his return.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Without Durant and Westbrook, there's going to be some value in backing the UNDER in OKC games going forward.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Steelers UNDER 48

The Baltimore Ravens versus Pittsburgh Steelers is arguably the biggest rivalry in the NFL today.  This game is always played close to the vest as these players literally hate each other.  The end result is usually a physical, defensive battle, and I expect that to be the case in their second meeting of 2014 Sunday.

A ridiculous 14 of the last 15 meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That's a 14-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 48 points.  The only exception was a 31-24 win by Pittsburgh in the 2010-11 playoffs.  Even that final of 55 combined points was a complete fluke.  The Ravens managed 24 points with only 126 yards of offense, while the Steelers scored 31 with only 263 total yards.

There is clearly a ton of value in backing the UNDER 48 in this game.  I had the under 44 the first time these teams played on September 11th and thought there was a lot of value with that number because that 44-point total was the biggest it had been in this series since 1997.  The Ravens won 26-6 for 32 combined points.  You can just imagine how my eyes lit up when I saw this 48-point total for the first time this week.

The biggest reason this number has been set so high is because both teams went over the total last week and while scoring and giving up a lot of points.  The Steelers beat the Colts 51-34 in the highest-scoring game of the week, while the Ravens lost to the Bengals 24-27.  Those performances were clearly aberrations and not the norm for these teams.  Had they not both played in shootouts, this total would have been set around the 44-point range just as it was in the first meeting.  I believe this total should be set closer to 40 points when you look at the history of this series.

Baltimore still has one of the best defenses in the league.  It is giving up just 16.4 points per game on the season, and it held the Steelers to just a pair of field goals the first time these teams played.  Baltimore did managed 26 points in that game, but the Steelers held the Ravens to a respectable 323 total yards.  

These teams just know each other so well inside and out that points are always hard to come bye.  Neither team is going to pull a fast one on the other.  There are no surprises when they get together.  Both teams bring their hard hats and slug it out, plain and simple.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oakland Raiders +14.5

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks are suffering the dreaded Super Bowl hangover this season. They aren’t playing nearly as well as they did a year ago, and as a result, they are just 3-4 against the spread this season. They have only won one game by more than 10 points this season, which was all the way back in their opener against Green Bay. Asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us this week is simply asking too much.

Seattle has lost two of its last three games while going 0-3 ATS in the process. Its only win came on a last-second touchdown at Carolina last week by a final of 13-9. The defense has given up 20 or more points in four of the last six games and is nowhere near as dominant as last year. The offense has been OK this year, but the trade of Percy Harvin and the questions surrounding Marshawn Lynch’s future are weighing heavily right now.

While the Super Bowl hangover is the real deal, one of the biggest contributing factors to that is the fact that the defending Super Bowl champ has a massive target on its back. Teams that are having bad seasons will bring their “A” game against the defending champs. I look for that to be the case this week as the Raiders would love nothing more than to pick up their first victory of the season against the Seahawks.

While that is unlikely to happen, the Raiders are certainly capable of staying within 14 points of the Seahawks this week. They have hung tough the last three weeks against the likes of San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland, losing all three of those games by 11 or fewer points. They arguably outplayed the Browns last week, but lost by a final of 13-23 despite outgaining them 387-306 for the game.

I like the progression I’ve seen from Derek Carr this year. The rookie quarterback has played very well in two of the past three games. He threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns against the Chargers three weeks ago. He threw for 328 yards and a touchdown without an interception last week against Cleveland. Carr is taking care of the football, throwing nine touchdowns against five picks on the season.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off a road loss in November games are 70-26 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – after 7 or more consecutive losses and winless on the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1983. As you can see, winless teams after Week 7 have been a very profitable bet throughout the years. There is clearly some value in backing Oakland as a 14.5-point dog this week, and we'll take advantage.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +10

I know the Jets have not been playing good, but that’s the reason why this line is as high as it is. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to want nothing to do with the Jets this week because of their seven-game losing streak coming in. That’s why there is some serious line value here in taking the Jets as double-digit dogs if you can stomach backing them this week.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is overvalued due to winning four of its last five games overall. It has also covered the spread in five of its last six games, while New York has gone 1-6-1 ATS in all games this season for the worst ATS mark in the entire NFL. That has created the perfect storm here where the only choice is to play the Jets because the Chiefs are not 10 points better than them.

The Jets turned the ball over a whopping six times last week against Buffalo in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Bills by 32 yards in the game.  When you look at the numbers, this Jets team is not that bad as they are only getting outgained by 1.5 yards per game on the season. They actually rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 320.8 yards per game.

If the offense quits turning the ball over, the Jets will be a tough team to beat this week. That’s why head coach Rex Ryan has named Michael Vick the starter with the hope that he can take care of the ball better than Geno Smith, who has thrown seven touchdowns against 10 interceptions this year. I believe Vick will give the team the spark they need to be much more competitive this week against the Chiefs.

If you can look past the loss to Buffalo, you will find that the Jets actually played the Broncos and Patriots very tough the previous two weeks. They did lose by 14 to Denver at home, but they were only down a touchdown late before giving up a pick-six in the closing seconds. They only lost 25-27 at New England while outgaining the Patriots 423-323 in a game they should have won.  If they can play with the Broncos and Patriots, the two best teams in the AFC, they can certainly play with the Chiefs.

Plays on road teams (NY JETS) – after six or more consecutive losses, in November games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses against opponent after two or more consecutive wins are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.

This trend just goes to show that backing teams on long losing streaks against teams on extended winning streaks has been a very profitable move over the years. It makes sense because the line is always inflated, as is the case in this game. The Chiefs are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take the Jets Sunday.

15* Utah State/Hawaii Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Utah State Aggies have no business being favored on the road at Hawaii, which has historically been a much better home team than a road team for obvious reasons.  I'll take the points with the Warriors in this one in a game they'll likely win outright.

Utah State is living too much off reputation as being one of the better non-Power 5 conference teams in the country over the last few seasons.  That certainly isn't the case in 2014.  Sure, they are 5-3 this season, but a closer look at their five victories shows that none of them have been impressive.

Utah State has beaten the likes of Idaho State, Wake Forest, BYU, Air Force and UNLV this season.  Sure, the win over BYU stands out, but that was the same game that star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg midway through the contest.  The Cougars never recovered and were deflated for the rest of the game, and the Aggies took advantage.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Aggies have the worst situation in the country in that department.  They lost Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending injury.  Backup Darrell Garretson played well in his place before going down as well.  If that wasn't enough, third-stringer Craig Harrison i snow out with a knee injury.

That leaves fourth-string quarterback Kent Myers to take over the starting QB duties this week against Hawaii.  Myers is a freshman who was expected to redshirt this year, but now he'll be thrust into the action against Hawaii.  Make no mistake, teams down to their fourth-string QB usually aren't successful, just ask Maryland a few years back.

Hawaii may be just 2-6 this season, but I have seen signs that this team is better than that record would indicate.  It only lost to Washington (16-17) and Oregon State (30-38) at home by a combined nine points, a pair of Pac-12 opponents.  It beat Wyoming and Northern Iowa at home, while also taking a 10-0 lead against Nevada last week before eventually losing 18-26 at home.  All six of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and five by 10 points or less, so it's not like it has been really blown out in any game.

The Warriors are 51-28 at home compared to 20-38 on the road over the past 10-plus seasons.  The Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -3

The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) deserve a lot more credit than they are getting as only 3-point home favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) in this game Saturday.  I look for them to win this one going away and to cover this generous spread with ease.

Nevada has beaten a Pac-12 opponent in Washington State by a final of 24-13 at home while losing to one of the better teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 28-35 on the road as a 20-point underdog.  It has also gone on the road and beaten San Jose State (21-10), BYU (42-35) and Hawaii (26-18).

The Wolf Pack's other two losses came to very good teams as underdogs to both Boise State (46-51) and Colorado State (24-31) at home.  So, as you can see, all three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less against great opponents.  That's how close this is to being an 8-0 team.

San Diego State doesn't have an impressive win yet.  Its four victories have resulted in two home wins over Northern Arizona, UNLV and Hawaii, as well as a road win at New Mexico.  Its three losses have come against the best three teams it has faced in North Carolina, Oregon State and Fresno State all on the road.

The Aztecs have played a much easier schedule than the Wolf Pack up to this point.  They have gone 1-3 on the road this season where they are getting outscored 17.7 to 24.2 on average.  As stated before, their lone road win came at New Mexico, which is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

Cody Fajardo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he leads a Nevada offense that is putting up 29.9 points and 414.1 yards per game this season.  He is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, while also rushing for 585 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per rush.

Nevada wants revenge from a pair of close losses to San Diego State over the past two seasons.  It lost 44-51 on the road last season to the Aztecs in overtime despite gaining 564 total yards in the loss.  It also fell 38-39 at home in overtime to the Aztecs in 2012 despite outgaining them 480-349 for the game.  So, after back-to-back overtime losses, you can bet that the Wolf Pack have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time.

The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 194

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their two best players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Durant, who led the league in scoring last year, is out until at least December with a foot injury.  Westbrook suffered a fractured right hand against the Clippers in their last game and is expected to miss up to six weeks.

This Oklahoma City offense is going to be lost without Durant and Westbrook.  Durant averaged 32.0 points per game last year, while Westbrook put up 21.8 points per game.  The Thunder only had two other players who averaged double figures in Serge Ibaka (15.1) and Reggie Jackson (13.1) last year.  It's worth noting that Jackson and fellow guard Jeremy Lamb are questionable to play in this game as well with injuries.  They have each missed the first two games of the season.

Being lost on offense means that the Thunder will take a lot of time every possession trying to figure out how to get the ball in the basket.  That will lead to poor shots at the end of the shot clock.  Mark Brooks isn't a dumby, and he knows that his team's best chance to win without his two superstars is to limit the possessions and to make every game a defensive battle.  That's what he will do, starting with tonight's game against Denver.

The Thunder were already struggling offensively without Durant, which is no surprise.  They have averaged just 89.5 points per game on 41.8% shooting in their losses to the Blazers and Clippers in their first two games.  It's only going to get worse without their point guard out there in Westbrook.  This may be the worst offensive team in the league now.

Denver didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in its opener.  It beat Detroit 89-79 at home behind a very good effort defensively in allowing the Pistons to shoot just 36.9% from the floor while grabbing 65 rebounds.  The Nuggets figure to get a boost on defense this season with the return of a healthy JaVale McGee, who is one of the top shot-blockers in the league.

Oklahoma City is 16-4 to the UNDER in its last 20 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 16-6 to the UNDER in their last 22 games following a road loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Thunder's last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC West No-Brainer on Ole Miss -1.5

The loss by Ole Miss last week to LSU is keeping this line lower than it should be. I believe the Rebels are the better team in this one, and their home-field advantage is worth more than what is factored into this line. Oddsmakers are actually saying that Auburn is the better team if they are only giving Ole Miss credit for three points for their home field. I’m not buying it.

I would argue that Ole Miss has the best defense in the entire country. After all, it is only giving up an average of 10.5 points per game on the season. What makes that so impressive is the brutal schedule that it has faced already having to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It held all three of those teams to 20 or fewer points, and I look for it to do the same against Auburn en route to victory.

The Rebels have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. They have beaten four quality teams at home as well in Louisiana Lafayette (56-15), Memphis (24-3), Alabama (23-17) and Tennessee (34-3). If they can beat Alabama, they can certainly beat Auburn as I believe the Crimson Tide are a much better team than the Tigers.

Auburn has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year in my opinion. That has shown in recent weeks as it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It only beat Kansas State 20-14 as a 7-point road favorite, it lost at Mississippi State 23-38 as a 3-point road favorite, and it barely beat South Carolina 42-35 at home last week as an 18-point favorite.

The Rebels certainly have a massive edge in this one defensively. The Tigers have been hemorrhaging points and yards over their last two games. Indeed, they have given up averages of 36.5 points and 502.0 yards per game during this stretch. They surrendered 38 points and 469 total yards to Mississippi State, and 35 points and 535 total yards to South Carolina, which had been struggling offensively prior to last week’s game.

Ole Miss certainly wants revenge on Auburn from its 22-30 road loss last year in a game that it should have won. It actually outgained the Tigers 464-375 for the game. Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. Nick Marshall went just 11 of 17 passing for 93 yards for the Tigers.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. Hugh Freeze is 24-10 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kentucky +8

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year.  I fully believe they'll go into Columbia and give the Missouri Tigers a run for their money and likely pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.

Kentucky (5-3) is so close to becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010 that it can taste it.  A victory at Missouri would accomplish that feat following a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year.  The Wildcats almost have to be looking at this game like a must-win because their remaining schedule is difficult.  They play Georgia at home, followed by road games at Tennessee and Louisville.

Four of the Wildcats' five victories this season have come by double-digits.  They also beat South Carolina 45-38 at home in their best win of the year.  They have only been blown out once this season, which was at LSU in a game they just didn't show up.  They only lost at Florida by a final of 30-36 (OT).

Last week's performance against the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State shows that the Wildcats can play with anyone.  They were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to score late to tie that game.  Instead, the Bulldogs returned the kick for a touchdown to put the game away in a 45-31 victory. 

The Wildcats managed 504 total yards against Mississippi State and have a legitimate offense this year.  They are putting up 31.6 points and 426.5 yards per game on the season.  Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles is the future of this program.  He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,077 yards with 12 touchdowns and only four picks this season, while also rushing for 204 yards and four scores.

There's no question that the Wildcats have a massive edge in this one on offense.  The Tigers are only averaging 330.7 yards per game on the season to rank 117th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total offense.  With that kind of suspect offense, the Tigers have no business laying more than a touchdown in this game.

Kentucky is also improved on the other side of the football.  While Missouri has a slight edge on defense in giving up 350.9 yards per game, the Wildcats aren't far behind.  They are allowing just 24.7 points and 377.6 yards per game on the season.  This stop unit is good enough to keep them in the game this weekend.

I believe Missouri is way overvalued this week due to its 42-13 win at Florida two weeks ago.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but when you consider the Tigers only managed 119 yards of total offense and scored just one offensive touchdown, it really wasn't.  They can't rely on getting five non-offensive touchdowns every week like they did in that game.

That was a big reason why I faded Missouri last week as a 21.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, which is easily the worst team in the SEC by a wide margin.  The Commodores kept it close, losing by a final of 14-24 to the Tigers on the road.  Remember, Indiana upset Missouri 31-27 on the road earlier this season, and Georgia also beat Missouri 34-0 in Columbia a few weeks back.

Plays against home favorites (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +23.5

I believe this number is too big Saturday. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well and are one of the top 15 teams in the country, but I don’t believe the 23.5-point spread is warranted. I faded them last week with success and backed Rutgers in an 18-point loss as a 20-point underdog. I believe Purdue is every bit as good as Rutgers, especially with the way it has been playing of late.

The Boilermakers are in a good spot here as they’ll be returning from their bye week having two weeks to prepare for the Huskers. They nearly upset Minnesota on the road last time out, falling short by a final of 38-39 as 12-point underdogs. It was the third straight game where they played well. They beat Illinois 38-27 on the road as 10-point underdogs, and they only lost to Michigan State by 14 at home as 21.5-point dogs. They have actually covered five of their last six games against the spread, and they are still undervalued here.

This Purdue offense has really kicked it in gear of late. It has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games overall. Austin Appleby has stepped up his play at the quarterback position. He is now completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 655 yards with six touchdowns and four picks on the year, performing much better than Danny Etling did before Appleby took over the job for good. Appleby has also rushed for 164 yards and four scores. Akeem Hunt (640 yards, 6.2/carry, 5 TD) and Raheem Mostert (466 yards, 6.1/carry, 3 TD) are two of the most underrated backs in the league.

Nebraska has a big game at Wisconsin on deck in its next game, and it certainly could be looking ahead to that contest. I just don’t believe that the Cornhuskers are as good as they get credit for as they have faced a very easy schedule up to this point. Sure, they only lost by five at Michigan State (22-27), but they were down 27-3 in that game. It was decided well before they came back with those 19 points in the fourth quarter of garbage time.

The Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Purdue is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +11

This rivalry game is always played close to the vest. That’s why it doesn’t always matter what the team’s records are coming into it. The last four meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less. Georgia won 23-20 last year, 17-9 in 2012, and 23-20 in 2011, while Florida won 34-31 (OT) in 2010. The Gators will be out for revenge in this one after losing the last three by such small margins.

The betting public wants nothing to do with Florida after it lost to Missouri 13-42 in its last game. However, a closer look at the box score shows that there’s no way in hell the Gators should have lost that game by such a wide margin. They actually gave up just 119 total yards and one offensive touchdown to the Tigers. Missouri scored a ridiculous five non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which was a complete fluke.

Considering Florida nearly beat LSU the week before, I have no doubt that this is still a quality team despite its 3-3 record. The Gators lost to LSU 27-30, which is the same LSU team that just beat previously unbeaten Ole Miss last week. The Gators held the Tigers to just 305 total yards. They also held Missouri to the 119 yards and Tennessee to 233 yards in their last three contests.

The biggest reason Florida has a chance to keep this game close is its defense, which ranks 12th in the country in giving up just 312.8 yards per game on the season. Georgia has a solid stop unit as well, giving up 320.6 yards per game, but I have no doubt that Florida has the better overall defense in this one.

The edge does go to Georgia offensively, but it’s not like the Bulldogs are one of the top offenses in the country. They are averaging a pedestrian 437.1 yards per game to rank 49th in total offense. They have been impressive in their last two games without Todd Gurley, but they will really miss him in this game.  Also, Georgia is overvalued this week due to its five-game winning streak coming in.  It hasn't beaten a single great team during this stretch as its wins have come against Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Arkansas.

The Florida offense should be better with Treon Harris as the starter. Will Muschamp has decided to bench Jeff Driskel, who has been simply atrocious at the quarterback position up to this point.  Harris has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick in limited action. I believe this Florida defense will keep them in the ball game, while Harris will make enough plays to keep the Gators within this double-digit spread.

Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games following a two-game home stand. Georgia is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games off a double-digit road win. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulldogs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Take Florida Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina +15

This feels a lot like last year when North Carolina opened 1-5 and went 6-1 down the stretch.  After starting 2-4, the Tar Heels have won their last two games with a home win over Georgia Tech as a narrow favorite and an upset win at Virginia.  Their only loss in their last three games came at Notre Dame by a final of 43-50 as a 16.5-point underdog, which I would consider a very good loss.

This North Carolina offense will keep it in every game from here forward.  It is averaging 37.4 points and 442.5 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing (497 yards, 5 TD).

Miami doesn't have a win over a really great opponents yet.  It has beaten the likes of Florida A&M, Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech.  It has lost to the three best opponents it has faced in Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28) all by double-digits.  Asking the Hurricanes to win by more than two touchdowns to cover against the Tar Heels is simply asking too much.

The underdog has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the the last 10 meetings in this series while pulling off five outright upsets in the process.  The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points or less, and six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The road team has won each of the last three meetings.

UNC is 9-2 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two years.  North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Miami is 2-9 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +9.5

The Philadelphia 76ers lost to Indiana on the road by a final of 91-103 in the opener, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread.  They held a 51-48 lead at halftime, but did not play nearly as well after intermission.  I believe they are showing value here in their second game of the season after that performance as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

I also believe the betting public is overreacting on the Bucks' solid performance at Charlotte where they lost 106-108 (OT) despite being an 8-point underdog.  They also blew a lead in that game and allowed the Bobcats to come back and win.  The Bucks simply have no business being this heavily favored against anyone, and there's value in the 76ers as a result.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last couple seasons, which is another reason why I believe this 9.5-point spread is too much.  Indeed, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and seven of those have been decided by 9 points or less.

The 76ers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. 

Simply put, Philadelphia is undervalued after failing to cover against Indiana, while Milwaukee is overvalued after covering against an overrated Charlotte squad.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +24.5

I realize that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have lost six straight games coming into this contest. However, that streak has made them way undervalued heading into this game against a much-improved Memphis squad. I certainly like their chances of staying within 24 points of the Tigers in this battle between former Conference USA rivals.

I’ve seen enough from Tulsa even in some losses to know that its is more than capable of keeping this game within 24 points. It only lost to Texas State 34-37 as a 3-point favorite, it lost to Tempe on the road 24-35 as a 17-point underdog, and it lost to South Florida 30-38 at home as a 2-point dog. I know Memphis is better than all three of those teams, but asking it to win by 25-plus points to cover is asking too much.

The one thing that gives Tulsa a chance to keep this game close is its offense, which is putting up a very impressive 433.3 yards per game this season, which is only slightly behind Memphis (451.1 YPG). In their last four games, the Golden Hurricane put up 434 yards against Texas State, 390 yards against Colorado State, 438 yards against Temple, and 488 yards against South Florida.

Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans has played pretty well this season. He is completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Zach Langer (436 yards, 4.2/carry) and James Flanders (330 yards, 4.5/carry) have provided steady play at running back. Keevan Lucas (64 receptions, 809 yards, 8 TD) is one of the most underrated receivers in the country.

Tulsa has had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis. The Golden Hurricane last played on October 18th, while the Tigers last played on October 25th. That extra week of preparation is going to be huge in this game, especially with the Tigers working on a short week already after having played on Saturday.

While I admit that the Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, they are finally getting too much respect this week.  They have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year, and the betting public has taken notice.  They have no business being a 24-point favorite against almost any FBS opponent outside of SMU.  They were 'only' a 23-point favorite against awful SMU last week, and they are getting too much respect this week after blowing them out.

Memphis is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit road win. Memphis is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off a win against a conference opponent.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 201

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as it's highly likely that neither team surpasses the 100-point barrier.

Utah was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last year.  It lost 93-104 to Houston in its opener and struggled once again offensively.  Those teams only combined for 197 points despite the fact that Houston shot 51.9% from the field and 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

Dallas played a good game at San Antonio but fell 100-101 for 201 combined points.  This game was played at a slow pace as the Spurs shot 52.9% from the field and 14-of-28 from 3-point range, yet still managed just 101 points.

Dallas is not going to be pushing the tempo as much this year without Jose Calderon at the point.  That's especially the case early because they have several new faces, and it's going to take some time to gel offensively.  The defense will be better this year with the arrival of Tyson Chandler, and newcomer Chandler Parsons is a plus-defender as well.

Utah and Dallas played four times last year.  The UNDER went 3-1 in the four meetings with combined scores of 178, 209, 184 and 196 points.  So, they averaged 191.8 combined points per game last year, which is nearly 10 points less than tonight's total, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER based on that alone.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season that allowed a 45.5% shooting percentage or worse are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2.5

The Saints are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their 3-4 record.  If you just look at their record, you automatically figure they aren't a very good team.  However, a closer look into how they have performed this year paints a completely different story.  

I made them my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday Night against the Packers, and I'm backing them again this week against the Panthers because I still believe they are undervalued as only a 2.5-point favorite against the Panthers.  I still believe this is one of the best teams in the NFL, and the numbers really show that.

Three of New Orleans' four losses this season have come by a combined six points.  That's how closer it is to being a 7-1 team right now instead of 3-4.  Plus, I don't consider road losses to Cleveland (24-26) and Detroit (23-24) by a combined three points to be bad performances.  The Saints really showed what they were capable of last week in their 44-23 beat down of the previously red-hot Packers at home.

New Orleans ranks 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 54.9 yards per game on the season.  It has done so behind an offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 445.3 yards per game, which is nearly 30 yards ahead of third place and only seven behind first-place Indianapolis.

The offense has gotten a big boost with a healthy return of Mark Ingram in the backfield recently.  All he did against the Packers was rush 24 times for 172 yards and a score.  Drew Brees completed 27 of 32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns without a pick as the Saints racked up 495 total yards in the win.

On the other side, Carolina is a much worse team than its 3-4-1 record would indicate.  It ranks 25th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 46.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 24th in total offense at 332.5 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 378.5 yards per game.

This Carolina defense has given up 37 or more points in four of its last six games overall to the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay and Cincinnati.  It has given up an average of 31.2 points per game during this stretch.  You can just imagine how badly it will struggle against this second-ranked New Orleans offense on Thursday.

The Saints have been great at running the football this year, ranking seventh in the league at 133.0 yards per game and second in yards per carry (5.1).  They should have success on the ground against a Carolina defense that ranks 28th against the run (135.2 YPG) and last in yards per rush (5.2).

Sure, these teams split their regular season meetings last year with the Panthers winning 17-13 at home and the Saints winning 31-13 at home.  However, the Saints dominated each game and should have won both.  They outgained the Panthers 365-222 in their four-point road loss, and 373-239 in their 18-point home win.  So, they outgained the Panthers 738-461 in the two meetings combined as the defense led the way in stopping Cam Newton and company.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Saints Thursday.

15* Florida State/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3.5

This is a pretty generous line to back the No. 2 team in the country in the Florida State Seminoles. I know that they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last year, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule up to this point. I believe their few closes wins this season against good teams in Clemson and Notre Dame have kept this spread smaller than it should be.

Keep in mind that Clemson was playing with DeShaun Watson at quarterback while FSU was playing without Jameis Winston when it beat the Tigers in overtime earlier this year. Also, the 31-27 win over Notre Dame is nothing to laugh about as the Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country and currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.

Louisville also lost a close one to Clemson by a final of 17-23. However, Watson went down with an injury early in that game, and the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. Clemson is a much inferior offensive team with Cole Stoudt at quarterback rather than Watson. So, you can’t really even compare those games. The Cardinals haven’t really beaten a great team yet as their six wins have come against Miami, Murray State, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse and NC State.

Florida State is putting up 37.9 pints and 442.7 yards per game on the season. Jameis Winston is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks on the year. I don’t believe Louisville has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Seminoles in this one. It is averaging 30.9 points and 370.4 yards per game on the season, averaging a mere 5.0 yards per play. It hasn’t face very many good defenses, either, and the ones it did it lost to in Virginia and Clemson.

The Seminoles are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Louisville is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following three straight conference games. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Florida State Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7

I look for the Detroit Pistons to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  I really like the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, who has been one of the most successful head coaches this league has seen.  He owns a .641 winning percentage in eight season with Miami and Orlando.

Van Gundy has plenty of talent to work with this year with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings leading the way.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a real scorer and should blossom in his second season.  I also like the additions of D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler as role players who will fit in nicely. 

The Pistons thrived in the preseason, going 5-2, and I look for them to carry over that success to the regular season opener.  The Nuggets, meanwhile, went just 2-6 in the preseason and are out of whack.  They have several players returning from injury, and Brian Shaw just has no chemistry with this team coming into the year.

Three key players for the Nuggets (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson) all underwent surgery to repair torn ACLs.  Gallinari never saw the floor last year, while JaVale McGee played in just five games.  I believe it's going to take a while for these guys to gel and actually feel comfortable about returning from such serious injuries on the court.

Van Gundy is 357-296 ATS in all games as a head coach.  Van Gundy is 81-55 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals Game 7 No-Brainer on Kansas City -123

What a series this has been.  It's fitting that we're going to a Game 7, and I expect the home team to take it down as the Royals feed off of the energy of their home crowd and come through with their first World Series title since 1985.

The Royals have shown a ton of resiliency this entire postseason.  They were down 7-3 to the A's in the wild card game through seven innings and came back and won.  They were down 3-2 facing elimination in Game 6 and responded with a 10-0 victory.  I really do believe this is a team of destiny this year.

The only reason this is a series is because Madison Bumgarner is one of the top postseason pitchers ever.  He has won two games for the Giants, while San Francisco is just 1-3 in games that he has not started.  Well, the good news is that Bumgarner won't be starting this game, though he may be available out of the bullpen.  Even if he comes in at some point, he is fatigued after pitching a complete game shutout on Saturday.

Jeremy Guthrie defeated Tim Hudson in Game 3 when he allowed two runs and four hits over five innings.  Guthrie has saved his best stuff for when the games have mattered most.  The right-hander is now 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last five starts, allowing just four earned runs over 30 1/3 innings.

Hudson has gone the other way down the stretch.  The right-hander is 0-5 with a 6.37 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing a whopping 29 earned runs over 41 innings.  He has given up three or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts.  Hudson has also found wins hard to come by in the postseason, going 1-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 career appearances (12 starts).

The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Hudson's last five interleague starts.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven after scoring five or more runs in its previous game.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last six home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Guthrie's last five starts.  The Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie's last five interleague starts.  These six trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Kansas City.  Take the Royals in Game 7 Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title.  They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year.  DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start.  Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team.  They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.

Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference.    However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team.  All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.

The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record.  I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season.  I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.

The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games.  I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -138

I look for the Kansas City Royals to win Game 6 tonight and force a Game 7.  They return home where they have lost just one game this entire postseason.  Playing in front of their rowdy home fans will give them the confidence needed to get this win tonight and extend the World Series.

I like their edge on the mound in this one.  Yordano Ventura has gone 13-10 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 33 starts, including 5-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.243 WHIP In 17 home starts.  He gave up two runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 win over San Francisco in Game 2 after they had lost Game 1.

I'll gladly fade Jake Peavy, who is 8-14 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 35 starts this year.  Peavy has been at his worst on the road, going 5-9 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 19 starts.

Peavy allowed four earned runs over five innings of that 2-7 loss to the Royals and Ventura in Game 2.  He is 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Royals.  Peavy has allowed three earned runs or more in 10 of his last 11 starts against Kansas City, including four or more runs six times.

San Francisco is 3-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 18-5 in Ventura's last 23 starts overall.  Peavy is 19-34 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons.

Ventura is 9-0 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.  Ventura is 8-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.  The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.  These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright.  I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.

Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year.  They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.

I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason.  It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back.  It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything.  Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.

I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason.  They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener.  I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.

One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight.  He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat.  He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks.  Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.

Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now.  They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills.  Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.

Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

The Cowboys have been the biggest surprise in the NFL up to this point.  Nobody expected this team to start 6-1.  DeMarco Murray broke the NFL record for consecutive 100-yard rushing games to open the season.  He is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  As a result, Tony Romo has been much more efficient in the passing game.  The defense has even been better than expected.

With the world well aware of the Cowboys' success this year, oddsmakers have been forced to inflate their line this week against the Redskins.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  While they are certainly one of the better teams in the league, there are a few factors that show they aren't as good as their record would indicate.

The offense is dominant, and as a result, the defense has hardly seen the field.  The Cowboys are the third-best team in the league in terms of time of possession.  If the defense were on the field more often, that suspect unit would be giving up a lot more yards and points.  In fact, they haven't been much better on that side of the ball compared to last season, when they ranked last in the league in total defense.

Dallas gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2013 and it is giving up 6.1 yards per play in 2014.  It gave up 7.0 yards per passing attempt last year, and it is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt this year.  It allowed 4.7 yards per carry last year, and it is giving up 4.9 yards per rush in 2014.  It forced 1.75 turnovers per game last season, and it is getting 1.71 turnovers per game this season.

The key to stopping Dallas is making sure it does not keep the football for most of the game.  Washington has the power to do that behind a defense that ranks 12th in the league against the run in giving up 103.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  In fact, a closer look at the numbers shows that Washington is a much better team overall than its 2-5 record would indicate.

The Redskins rank an incredible 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 67.5 yards per game.  They trail only the Colts and Broncos in that category, which shows that they are right up there with two of the top teams in the NFL.  Furthermore, the Redskins rank 7th in the league in total defense (321.9 yards/game) and 5th in total offense (389.4 yards/game).  This team is much better than it is getting credit for as a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys.

I realize Colt McCoy is expected to start this game for Washington, but I'm not too concerned about it because Kirk Cousins was a turnover machine and can't be trusted.  McCoy impressed in leading the Redskins to a 19-17 victory over the Titans last week in a game they should have won by more.  They outgained the Titans by 115 yards in the game.  McCoy finished 11 of 12 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown after replacing Cousins.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough over the past few seasons.  In fact, it is a sensational 7-1 (88%) ATS against the Cowboys in the last eight meetings in this series.  It has only lost to the Cowboys by more than 3 points once during this stretch.  That was a 16-31 loss at Dallas last year when the Redskins simply gave that game away.  They actually outgained the Cowboys 433-213 for the game, but they turned the ball over twice and gave up an 86-yard punt return for a score.

The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.  The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games.  Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 11-23 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1

The Saints clearly have not gotten off to the start they wanted to this season.  A lot of that has had to do with the scheduling as they have played four road games compared to two home games.  They are 0-4 on the road and 2-0 at home. 

Another reason has to do with the fact that they haven't been able to win close games as three of their losses have come by a combined six points.  The good news is that they are only one game back in the weak NFC South division, so all is not lost yet.  I still believe this team will win the division and be a factor in the playoffs.

Look for the Saints to come out highly motivated for a win Sunday as they host the Green Bay Packers and play inside the friendly confines of the Superdome.  I have no doubt that the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, and that's evident in the statistics. 

They rank 2nd in the league in total offense at 437.0 yards per game, and while their defense has taken a step back this year, they are still outgaining opponents by an average of 63.3 yards per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.  The defense has given up an average of 329.0 yards per game the last two weeks and will only get better as the season progresses.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home.  They are a combined 10-0 at home over the past two seasons.  Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 17-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Saints as this short of a home favorite.  We'll take advantage this week.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being New Orleans' 34-27 win at Lambeau Field back in 2006.  Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

While the Saints are better than their record, there's no question the Packers aren't as good as their 5-2 record would indicate.  They rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 325.4 yards per game and 19th in total defense at 362.7 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 37.3 yards per game, which is the 10th-worst mark in the NFL.

Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this season compared to 3-0 at home.  It has really been outplayed on the road this season despite the 2-2 record.  It is only gaining 301.2 yards per game on offense while giving up 399.0 yards per game on defense.

As you can see, it is getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game away from home this year.  It needed a last-second touchdown to beat Miami, and it was outgained by the Bears by 140 total yards in its 38-17 victory.  It also lost to the Seahawks by 20 and the Lions by 12 in its first two road games.

The Packers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because they have won and covered in four consecutive games.  Keep in mind that this stretch of games has featured wins over the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins and Panthers, and none of those teams have better than a .500 record. 

The betting public has been all over the Packers, too.  They'll continue to ride them because they have been good to them, which is why this is only a 1-point spread as the books know the public will be on Green Bay again, so they have over-adjusted the line.  That has provided us with some serious line value here on the Saints.

Payton is 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 14-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games overall.  The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 5 No-Brainer on Kansas City +146

What a series it's been thus far between the Royals and Giants.  I look for Kansas City to take control with a Game 5 victory at an excellent price of +146.  Madison Bumgarner is simply overvalued here because he has had a strong postseason up to this point, while James Shields has not.

Shields is now 15-9 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 38 starts this season.  The best part about backing Kansas City's ace here is that he has been at his best on the road.  Indeed, the right-hander is 10-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 20 road starts this year.

Bumgarner has continued his superb pitching in the postseason, and he's now 21-11 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 38 starts.  However, the left-hander has been at his worst at home, going 7-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 17 starts.

Shields is 10-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Shields is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Shields is 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games as a road underdog. 

These four trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing Kansas City.  Also, the Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road underdog, 23-4 in Shields' last 27 road starts, and 13-1 in Shields' last 14 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 6-13 in Bumgarner's last 19 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.  Bet the Royals in Game 5 Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7

The Cleveland Browns have no business being this heavily favored against any team in the league. I said that last week when I backed the Jaguars as 6-point home underdogs, and they came through and won outright 24-6 over the Browns. I’m saying it again this week. Even though it’s the winless Raiders, the Browns are clearly overvalued here. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.

One big reason why Cleveland could be in line for a tough stretch is that it recently lost center Alex Mack to a season-ending leg injury. He was the heart and soul of this offense, and even quarterback Brian Hoyer said that you don’t replace a guy like Mack heading into the Jacksonville game. Center is the most underrated position in the NFL because he calls out all of the blocking assignments.

Cleveland had been one of the best rushing teams in football prior to Mack going down with an injury. His loss was felt against the Jaguars as the Browns managed a measly 69 rushing yards on 30 carries for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. Even Brian Hoyer had an awful game, going just 16-of-41 passing for 215 yards with an interception. The Browns were held to 266 total yards, and head coach Mike Pettine admitted that he contemplated replacing Hoyer with Johnny Manziel against the Jaguars last week.

Cleveland has played in a bunch of close games this year as four of its six games have been decided by a field goal or less. It is going to have a hard time blowing out teams due to a defense that has not been very good at all this year. The Browns are giving up 23.2 points and 394.8 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.

The Browns rank last in the league against the run, giving up a whopping 155.5 yards per game on the ground.  The Raiders averaged the fewest rushing yards (69.3 RYPG) this season, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've been playing from behind.  Look for head coach Tony Sparano to be sure that Darren McFadden gets more carries in this one.  He rushed for 89 yards on 14 attempts against San Diego and 48 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown against Arizona the past two weeks.  He just needs more touches and should get them this week.

I’m a realist, and I realize that Oakland is probably the worst team in the league, but I have been impressed with Derek Carr’s development as the season has gone on. He is more than capable of putting up solid numbers against this soft Cleveland defense. He had his best game against the Chargers two weeks ago when he threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns. He and the rest of these Raiders are highly motivated to pick up their first win of the season, and this is one of their best chances yet to do so.

"Nobody is handed the trophy at the end of six weeks," Sparano said. "In my mind, we have 10 games to go right now. I've seen teams get into this tournament with eight wins, with nine wins, whatever the case is.

"That isn't really our concern right now. Our concern is getting one win and winning the next game. That really has to be our focus, because if we look at the picture down the road right now, the parade might pass us by."

"We're building," defensive end Benson Mayowa said. "Every week we come in and we're building; we're getting close. We just have to get a W, and that's what we're going to do."

The Browns are 0-7 ATS versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the past two seasons. Oakland is a very profitable 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Raiders are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games following a non-conference game. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Raiders to +7 if you have the option but would still take them at +6 or better if you don't.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -5

I just cannot foresee the defending Super Bowl champs losing three straight games. They were dealt a big distraction last week heading into their showdown with St. Louis as Percy Harvin was traded late in the week to the Jets. It caught most of the Seattle players by surprise as they said so afterwards. Even wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who allegedly had a run-in with Harvin, was caught off guard by it. He said it was certainly a distraction, but also that there was no excuse for the 26-28 loss to the Rams.

St. Louis was aided by an 90-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 75-yard kickoff return, and a fake punt in the fourth quarter as special teams was the difference in the game. The Seahawks actually dominated the box score and should have won. They outgained the Rams by 191 total yards for the game as they racked up 463 yards of offense in their best output of the season on that side of the ball.

The offense has been carrying the load this season in averaging 26.5 points and 357.0 yards per game.  You can bet the defense is going to put this game on their shoulders after giving up an average of 29.0 points per game the past two weeks in losses to the Cowboys and Rams. I still believe this is one of the best stop units in the league, and I fully expect that to be on display against the Panthers, just as it was last year.

Seattle beat Carolina 12-7 on the road last season in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Seahawks outgained the Panthers 370-253 for the game, or by 117 total yards. Russell Wilson went 25 of 33 passing for 320 yards and a touchdown in the win, while the defense limited Cam Newton to 16 of 23 passing for 125 yards and a score.

The Panthers are clearly down this season. They have won just one of their last five games overall while giving up an average of 34.8 points per game in the process. They have allowed 37 or more points in four of their last five games as well. They currently rank 29th in the league in scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and 29th in total defense (388.3 YPG). They clearly miss suspended DE Greg Hardy as well as three of four starters from their secondary who departed this offseason.

Offensively, Cam Newton is simply being asked to do too much.  The Panthers have been decimated by injuries at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert out.  Now, the offensive line is a mess.  Rookie guard Trai Turner is out with a sprained knee and ankle, while tackle Byron Bell (elbow) and guard Amini Silatolu (calf) are listed as questionable.

Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Seahawks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after giving up more than 30 points in their previous game. Pete Carroll is 8-0 ATS after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 16-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Seahawks.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +118

The Kansas City Royals picked up picked up two huge wins in a row since losing Game 1 to take control of this series.  Their bullpen didn't allow a single hit over four innings to preserve yet another one-run victory last night.  I look for that bullpen to play a vital role in the Royals taking Game 4 tonight as they step on the throats of the Giants.

Jason Vargas is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 12-10 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 32 starts.  However, he has been at his best on the road, going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Vargas has posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco as well.

Ryan Vogelsong is getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one because he has posted a solid ERA in the postseason through his career.  The right-hander isn't as good as Vargas, though, going 8-13 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 34 starts.  Vogelsong is also 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  He allowed four earned runs and nine base runners over three innings in his last start against St. Louis in the NLCS.

The Royals are now 10-1 in the playoffs and cannot be stopped.  Their confidence is through the roof, and they have the Giants on their heels.  Kansas City is 51-24 in its last 75 games overall, and 39-18 in its last 57 road games.  The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 in its last eight games as a road underdog.  The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Royals in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Royals/Giants Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +119

The Royals were finally put to the test in seeing how they would respond following a loss.  They had not lost in the postseason up to that point.  Facing an 0-2 deficit and the series likely being over, the Royals responded in a big way.  They hammered their way to seven runs in a 7-2 victory to even the series at 1-1.

That kind of win for Kansas City will give it a ton of confidence heading into Game 3 in San Francisco.  A big reason I liked the Royals to win this series was because I believe they have the edge in the starting rotation and the bullpen outside of Madison Bumgarner, who has been a beast for the Giants.

Jeremy Guthrie had a solid season this year at 13-11 with a 4.03 ERA.  However, I have been really impressed with what he has done down the stretch when these games have mattered most.  Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just two earned runs and 21 base runners over 25 1/3 innings.  He gave up one run over five innings in his lone postseason start against Baltimore during this stretch.

Tim Hudson has posted better numbers than Guthrie, going 9-13 with a 3.55 ERA this season, but keep in mind that he pitches in the National League and is not the better starter because of better numbers.  Hudson has been at his worst at home, going 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA.  In his last postseason start, he gave up four earned runs and a homer over 6 1/3 innings against the Cardinals.

Hudson faced the Royals this year, giving up three earned runs over six innings of a 5-0 loss at Kansas City on August 9th.  Guthrie didn't allow a single earned run over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against San Francisco, which was on the road.  I look for this game to be close by the time these starters exit, and then the edge goes to the Royals' bullpen, which has been virtually unhittable in the postseason.

Guthrie is 9-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 54-32 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Royals are 9-1 in the playoffs.  Kansas City is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Royals are 4-0 in Guthrie's last four starts.  Kansas City is 30-14 in Guthrie's last 44 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 0-4 in Hudson's last 4 interleague starts.  Take the Royals in Game 3 Friday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver -8.5

I wrote last week about how San Diego had faced the easiest schedule in the league, which was a big reason for its 5-1 start to the season. I really do not believe this team is as good as its record would indicate, and that it will be overmatched against the best team in the NFL in the Broncos in this one.

Perhaps the biggest reason I’m taking Denver Thursday is that San Diego is really banged up right now. It was already without a couple starters on defense in Melvin Ingram and Manti Te’o. Then, last week the Chargers were missing Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder), their top two cornerbacks.

Flowers, who has played at a Pro Bowl level this season, has been ruled out due to his concussion suffered against Kansas City on Sunday.  Verrett, who is in the early discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, is listed as questionable.  As of Wednesday, a source close to the situation viewed Verrett as a longshot to play due to his shoulder injury.  The Chargers will have to turn to their two starters from last year in Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright, who were two of the least effective corners in the league.

That’s bad news for San Diego, which will be up against the record-setting Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos are averaging 31.5 points per game, 299 passing yards per game, and 8.5 yards per attempt. Manning is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,848 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. He has put up those numbers against a very tough schedule and some of the best defenses in the league in the likes of the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets & 49ers.

San Diego has put up good numbers defensively this year, but that has a lot more to do with the schedule than actually being a good defense. Sure, it opened with Arizona and Seattle, but then played Buffalo, Jacksonville, New York (Jets), Oakland and Kansas City the next five weeks. I wouldn’t consider any of those teams to be elite offensively. This defense is likely to be in for a rude awakening this week, especially with all of the injuries.

Denver’s defense did not perform all that great in the first three weeks of the season. However, this revamped stop unit has really picked it up of late. The Broncos have won their last three games all by 14 points or more largely due to the defense. They allowed 20 points and 215 total yards in a 21-point win over Arizona, 17 points and 204 total yards in a 14-point win over the Jets, and 17 points and 310 total yards in a 25-point win over the 49ers.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 316.8 yards per game.  They also rank 4th in total offense at 394.0 yards per game.  That puts them at 2nd in the league in yardage differential as they are outgaining teams by a whopping 77.2 yards per game.  With the schedule they have faced, this is easily the best team in the NFL.

Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. The Broncos are 49-28 ATS in their last 77 home games against a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday.

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

25* MLB Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Royals -108

After losing Game 1 of this series last night, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back and take Game 2 to assure that they won't go back to San Francisco down 2-0.  The Giants threw their ace in Bumgarner last night, but the rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired.

Jake Peavy is a journeyman who is no longer anything more than an average starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 8-13 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 34 starts this season, including 5-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 18 road starts.

The Royals are very familiar with Peavy, who faced them quite a bit while a member of the Chicago White Sox.  Peavy is 5-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City.  Amazingly, Peavy has allowed AT LEAST 3 earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts against the Royals, including 4 or more in five of those.

Yordano Ventura may be a rookie, but he has pitched like a seasoned veteran this season.  The right-hander is 13-10 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 32 starts this year.  He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing five earned runs and 14 base runners over 12 2/3 innings in tough road starts against the Angels and Orioles.

Peavy is 19-33 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 17-5 in Ventura's last 22 starts.  The Royals are 21-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.  The Giants are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague road games. 

Ventura is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.  Kansas City is 8-1 in the postseason this year.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* Giants/Royals World Series Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -101

We are getting a great price on the Royals here in Game 1 of the World Series.  This team simply cannot lose, and they should be bigger favorites because of it.  They are the first team in MLB postseason history to win their first eight games.  I wouldn't be surprise to see them sweep the Giants in the World Series, either.

James Shields has been the ace of this team all season.  He has gone 15-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.210 WHIP over 37 starts this year.  One of those starts came against the Giants on August 9th at home.  Shields pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only five base runners in a 5-0 win for Kansas City.

Madison Bumgarner is the ace of the Giants and certainly one of the better starters in the league.  However, the Royals are hitting .271 against left-handed starters this season.  Also, Bumgarner lost his only career start against the Royals on August 8th this year when he gave up four runs over eight innings in a 2-4 loss for the Giants.

The Giants are 16-38 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  San Francisco is 5-16 in its last 21 interleague road games overall.  Kansas City is 42-18 in Shields' last 60 starts overall.  The Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games as an underdog, 8-0 in their last eight playoff games, 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record, and 11-1 in Shields' last 12 starts as an underdog.  These last four trends combine for a 39-2 system backing Kansas City.  Bet the Royals in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +3

While these teams share identical 3-3 records this season, I have been much more impressed with the Texans and feel like they are the stronger team in 2014. They did lose the last two weeks, but even in the losses they proved they could play with two of the best teams in the league. Dallas needed overtime to beat the Texans 20-17. Indianapolis needed a late stop defensively to preserve its 33-28 win.  Dallas is 6-1, while Indy is 5-2 this season.

Pittsburgh’s three wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville. It only beat the Browns and Jaguars by a combined 11 points, so those wins weren’t that impressive. It’s the losses that really show how down the Steelers are this year. They lost to the Ravens by 20 and the Browns by 21. They also fell at home to the Buccaneers 24-27. The Bucs and Jaguars were a combined 1-18 in their last 19 games overall heading into this week, and the Steelers only outscored those two awful teams 41-36.

The Steelers have given up 157-plus rushing yards in three different games this season. That’s bad news for their defense because they will be up against one of the better rushing attacks in the league. The Texans are averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this year. Arian Foster is showing that he is still one of the elite backs in the NFL. He has rushed for 513 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Foster even missed one game due to injury, which was the only poor performance by the Texans this season in a 17-30 loss to the Giants.

I know their last meeting was a few years ago, but the Texans did beat the Steelers 17-10 at home. That was a much better Pittsburgh defense than the one it is putting on the field in 2014. Foster had a huge day on the ground in that game, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The Texans rushed for 180 as a team. Their defense also limited the Steelers to just 296 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger went 16 of 30 passing for 206 yards with a pick.

Houston's J.J. Watt is an a absolute beast.  He leads the NFL with 20 hits on quarterbacks this season, and he has also scored three touchdowns with two on defense and one on offense.  Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 17 times entering Week 7 for the second-highest total in the NFL.  Look for Watt and company to get after him and to force some turnovers in this one.  It’s also worth noting that the Texans will have three more days than the Steelers to prepare for this game after playing the Colts last Thursday.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) – after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 64-30 (68.1%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in its last three games. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Monday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) are looking at this game like a must-win because they cannot afford to fall any further behind in the AFC West standings with both the Broncos and Chargers only having one loss apiece. They will certainly be putting their best foot forward this week off their bye last week. The Chargers could actually afford a loss at this point and won’t be playing with the same sense of urgency as the Chiefs in this one because of their fast start to the season.

I really like what I’ve seen from this Kansas City team ever since its season-opening loss to the Titans. It went into Denver and gave Peyton Manning and company a run for their money in a 17-24 loss as a 13-point underdog. It went into Miami and came away with a 34-15 win as a 6-point dog. It thumped New England 41-14 on Monday Night Football as a 3-point dog. Then, it had its chances against San Francisco, but ultimately fell 17-22 on the road as a 4-point dog.

So, as you can see, the Chiefs have played three of their last four games on the road with all four coming against some of the premier teams in the league, especially the Broncos, Patriots and 49ers. They have hung right with or dominated each of their last four opponents. They are certainly capable of going into San Diego and coming away with a win in this one as well.

The Chargers are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-1 start to the season, which has also included a 5-1 ATS record. I successfully faded the Chargers last week by backing the Raiders as 7.5-point home underdogs in a 31-28 victory for San Diego. The Raiders were in that game the whole way, and just like the Chiefs, they were coming off their bye week. That makes this a very tough spot for San Diego as it has to face two straight teams coming off their bye weeks.

Not only does that make this a tough spot for the Chargers with the Chiefs coming off the bye, that may not even be the biggest situation factor here.  Perhaps the bigger factor is the fact that San Diego plays Denver on Thursday.  Even though this game against the Chiefs is a division game, I have no doubt the Chargers will be looking ahead to that game against the Broncos, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They simply will not be able to bring the kind of focus and effort to the field this week it takes to put away the pesky Chiefs.

The Chargers aren't as good as they're perceived to be this year, either.  They have faced the easiest schedule in the league thus far as their six opponents up to this point have a combined 33% winning percentage on the season.  Also, they have been lucky as they're the only team in the NFL to have not lost a fumble.  They have fumbled six times and recovered all six.

The Chiefs have only failed to cover the spread in one of their last 12 road games.  Coach Andy Reid has won 63% of his road games for his career.  Also, Reid has won 16 of his last 18 games as a head coach off a bye, including playoffs.

San Diego did win both meetings with Kansas City last year, but both were by exactly a field goal, and there’s a good chance this one is decided by a field goal as well. Also, the Chiefs even rested their starters in Week 17 last year, yet nearly beat the Chargers as 15.5-point underdogs. San Diego needed overtime to escape with a 27-24 home victory and punch its ticket into the playoffs. You can bet the Chiefs will be out for revenge in this one after getting swept in the season series by a combined six points last year.

Plays against any team (SAN DIEGO) – after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 140-85 (62.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Kansas City is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 road games following one or more consecutive losses. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -3

After opening the season with losses against two of the best teams in the league in Denver and Philadelphia by a combined 10 points, there has been nobody playing better football than the Colts over the last four weeks. They have outscored the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens and Texans a combined 138-75 while going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

That doesn’t even tell the entire story. Not only are the Colts winning, they are absolutely dominating the box score. They ougained the Jaguars by 185 yards, the Titans by 237 yards, the Ravens by 145 yards, and the Texans by 124 yards. So, as you can see, they have outgained their last four opponents by a total of 691 yards. They even outgained the Broncos by 47 yards in their Week 1 loss on the road.

I have lost more money going against the Colts over the past few seasons than any other team in the NFL.  That's because they were always winning close games despite getting outgained on a regular basis.  Now, I know the Colts are the real deal because they rank 1st in the league in yardage differential.  They are outgaining opponents by 103.5 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 26 yards per game more than second place.

Andrew Luck is playing better than any quarterback in the league this season. He is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,987 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards and two scores. His ability to move within the pocket with his underrated feet make him very tough for opposing pass rushers to bring down. He’s so great at extending plays and making them when needed, but he’s also tremendous within the pocket.

Cincinnati was one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 3-0 start to the season. That showed in a 17-43 loss in New England in Week 5. It also showed last week as the Bengals only managed to tie the Panthers 37-37 at home despite being a 7-point favorite.  The Bengals had won 11 straight regular season home games prior to that tie, so they have clearly done most of their damage over the last few years at home and not on the road.

As you can see, their defense has given up a combined 80 points over the past two weeks.  They rank 28th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 398.8 yards per game on the season.  That's not good news for the Bengals because they will be up against a Colts offense that ranks 1st in the league in total offense at 444.0 yards per game.

Also, Cincinnati's offense was without star receiver A.J. Green last week, and he is doubtful to play with a toe injury this week. While he isn’t the best receiver in the league, he is more important to this Cincinnati offense than any other receiver in the NFL in my opinion. He just requires so much attention for opposing defenses.  Green has averaged 104.7 receiving yards per game in the last three full games he's played.  That kind of production is simply irreplaceable.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The Colts are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Bengals.  It's also important to note that the Colts will have three extra days of rest and preparation than the Bengals because they played last Thursday against Houston.  Meanwhile, the Bengals could be a little more fatigued than normal because they played a full five quarters last week in their overtime game against Carolina.

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record over the last three years. The Colts are 12-1 ATS in a home games where the total is 45.5 or more over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

It’s unfathomable that the Cleveland Browns are actually this big of a road favorite against anyone in the NFL. Sure, they are a vastly improved team this season with their 3-2 start, but they are getting too much respect here against the Jaguars. Asking them to go on the road and win by a touchdown or more to beat us is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Browns, who are coming off their 31-10 beat down of the Steelers last week. That win had to feel good considering they 'improved' to 4-25 in their last 29 meetings with the Steelers in that AFC North rivalry. It will be hard for a team like the Browns to go on the road and put forth the kind of effort they did against the Steelers now that they’ll be facing a winless team.  This is clearly a tough spot for them because they are not used to success.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are very hungry for that first victory. They have been inching closer to it each of the last three weeks, losing by 19 on the road to the Chargers, by 8 at home to the Steelers, and by 2 last week on the road against the Titans. The reason they have been more competitive is the insertion of Blake Bortles as the starting quarterback.

Jacksonville played by far its best game of the season last week at Tennessee and arguably should have won. It outgained the Titans by 89 total yards for the game as the offense amassed a season-high 379 yards, and the defense limited the Titans to season-low 290 yards.

Bortles went 32-of-46 passing for 336 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 38 yards on five carries in his best game yet as a pro.  Cecil Shorts is back healthy and had a career-high 10 catches for 103 yards.  Bortles has completed 67.8 percent of his passes this year, which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Four of Cleveland’s five games this season have been decided by 3 points or less, and there’s a good chance this one will go right down to the wire as well. The Browns were fortunate to be able to come back from a 28-3 deficit to beat Tennessee 29-28 in their last road game. This is a team that has been dreadful on the road over the past decade and rarely wins away from home.

The Browns have been winning in spite of their defense, which has been atrocious this season.  They are giving up 23.0 points and 406.6 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.  Bortles figures to have another big day through the air in this one as the Jaguars will likely put forth their best offensive output of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.

The Cleveland offense has been surprisingly good, especially running the football.  It is averaging 146 yards per game on the ground.  However, center Alex Mack, the team's best and most important lineman, went down with a likely season-ending broken leg.  The center is the most underrated position in all of football.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer said it best when referring to Mack. "You just don't replace that guy," Hoyer said.  Plus, the Jacksonville run defense has been trending in the right direction.  The Jaguars have only allowed an average of only 74.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry over their last three games.  The Browns haven't proven they can really light it up through the air this season to take advantage of Jacksonville's biggest weakness, which is its secondary.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) – a horrible offensive team (scoring less than 14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.