Winning Sports Picks

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -122

The Atlanta Braves represent my strongest play in the NL East division for the entire month of May.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with Miami tonight after getting swept in four games by the Boston Red Sox last series.

Atlanta sends NL Cy Young contender Julio Teheran to the mound to stop the bleeding.  The right-hander has been nothing short of brilliant this season, going 4-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 11 starts.  Teheran is unbeaten in five career starts against Miami, going 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.175 WHIP.

Tom Koehler got off to a great start this season for Miami, but he has come back down to reality of late.  The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three starts.  Koehler is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have resulted in losses for the Marlins.

Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 41-11 (78.8%, +27.5 units) over the last five seasons.  The Braves are 40-18 in their last 58 meetings with the Marlins.

Atlanta is 70-37 (+31.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three or more consecutive losses since 1997.  The Braves are 11-1 in Teheran's last 12 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts vs. Miami.  The Marlins are 23-51 in their last 74 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -127

The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing well over the past couple weeks.  They have won 10 of their last 14 games overall to get right back in the thick of the NL Central race.  They have not lost back-to-back games since May 9-10, and I look for them to avoid that tonight after losing Game 3 to the Yankees last night.

It's nice to see Jaime Garcia back on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA and 0.868 WHIP through two starts this season after missing most of last year due to injury.  Garcia is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong is coming off a disastrous 2013 campaign in which he went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts.  While he has excelled at home this season, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in four road starts in 2014.  Vogelsong is also 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 71-34 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss.  St. Louis is 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-23 in their last 33 vs. National League Central foes.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -107

The Tampa Bay Rays represent my favorite play in the American League over the past seven days as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  After losing the first two games of this series to the Blue Jays, I look for the Rays to come out highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3.

I believe they'll get the job done due to their huge edge on the mound.  Chris Archer has gone 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts, pitching 11 2/3 shutout innings in wins over the likes of the Angels and Red Sox.  He has struck out 16 batters over this span.  Archer is 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto as well.

Liam Hendriks is no more than a spot starter in this league and wouldn't make most rotations.  Hendriks has gone 3-13 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 29 starts and two relief appearances in his four-year career between Minnesota and Toronto.  In his lone career start against Tampa Bay, he gave up four earned runs and two homers in 5 2/3 innings.

Toronto is simply overvalued right now due to its nice stretch of play over the past couple of weeks to get into first place in the AL East.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in its last four games as a favorite.  The Rays are 10-3 in Archer's last 13 starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits.  They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.

Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything.  Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.

I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals.  They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.

San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -107

The Boston Red Sox represent my favorite play in interleague action for the entire month of May Tuesday as they take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of this series.  They have a massive edge on the mound and I look for them to come in with some momentum, too.

Boston finally put an end to its 10-game losing streak with an 8-6 victory over Atlanta in Game 1.  It got into a brawl with Tampa Bay over the weekend, and I look for that to spark the defending world champs going forward.  This is still one of the most talented teams in baseball.

Jon Lester has put together back-to-back brilliant seasons thus far in 2013 and 2014.  Lesteer went 15-8 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 2013, and he's currently 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 2014.  The left-hander is also 3-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in five road starts this year, and 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Aaron Harang is having an excellent season for Atlanta, but I believe it's an aberration.  The 36-year-old went 5-12 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in 26 starts last season between Seattle and New York.  Now, he is 4-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 10 starts thus far in 2014.  He'll get rocked by the Red Sox like he always does.  Indeed, Harang is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in four career starts against Boston.

Boston is 12-3 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost three of their last four games over the last two seasons.  Lester is 14-3 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less in his career.  The Red Sox are 95-37 in their last 132 interleague games as a favorite.  The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays +109

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They trail the Blue Jays by seven games in the AL East after losing Game 1 of this series Monday, and I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Without a doubt, the Rays have the better starter going in this one.  Alex Cobb has gone 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in four starts this season.    He has missed most of the season with a strained oblique, which has really hurt this team.  Remember, Cobb went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts last season, and I would argue he's the team's best starter over David Price when healthy.

He'll be up against the 35-year-old Mark Buehrle.  The left-hander went 12-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his first season with Toronto in 2013.  Now, he's 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 10 starts with the Blue Jays in 2014, which is clearly an aberration.  He is overvalued due to the fast start, and he won't be able to keep it up.

Cobb has gone 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto.  Buehrle is 7-6 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 19 career starts against Tampa Bay.  The Rays are 6-0 in Cobb's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 7-2 in Cobb's last nine road starts.  Take the Rays Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5

It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series.  I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.

Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest.  Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss.  The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.

That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season.  Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.

The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +127

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as a decent-sized underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this interleague series Monday.  I'll take advantage and back them in a game that they should not be a dog at all.

Chris Tillman remains one of the most underrated starters in the game today.  The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Remember, he went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2013.  I believe he'll fare well against this National League opponent today.

Baltimore is a very profitable 79-69 (+37.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  Tillman is 20-7 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Orioles are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven vs. NL Central foes.  The Orioles are 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 road starts.  The Brewers are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Orioles Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a very high-scoring Game 1 that saw 227 combined points.  That final tally has inflated the total in both Game 2 and Game 3.  I took advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 2, and I'll take advantage again today in Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Indeed, the Spurs rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 5th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a low-scoring series between these familiar foes, who met in the Western Conference Finals in 2012 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 games following an ATS win.    The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 54-21 (72%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory today in Game 4 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have lost the first three games of this series to add fuel to the fire, and they want to avoid the sweep.  I like their chances due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Doug Fister was quietly one of the best offseason acquisitions in the league.  He has started off well in his switch to the National League, which usually works out for most starters.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in three starts this season.

Francisco Liriano had a great year last season, but it was simply an aberration because he was one of the worst starters in the game for a couple years prior.  That has proven to be the case in 2014 as the left-hander is 0-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in six home starts.

Fister has posted a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Pittsburgh.  The Nationals are 6-1 in their last seven during Game 4 of a series.  The Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Nationals Sunday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series.  They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.

Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team.  He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.

As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league.  They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013.  It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games.  It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -135

The Tampa Bay Rays (21-28) are back on track after winning two games in a row.  This is still one of the best teams in the AL East in my opinion, and they are going to be showing great value for a while do to their slow start.

They are certainly showing good value with as a small favorite with ace David Price on the mound tonight.  The left-hander has gone 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Price is 10-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 21 career starts against Boston.

The Boston Red Sox (20-27) are clearly suffering a World Series hangover.  They have lost eight straight coming into this one.  Jake Peavy is 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this year.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in eight career starts against Tampa Bay as well.

Tampa Bay is 82-44 (+25.0 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games since 1997.  The Red Sox are 0-6 in Peavy's last six starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Boston is 1-4 in Peavy's last five road starts.  The Rays are 59-29 in their last 88 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 36-17 in Price's last 53 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Rays Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+101)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should not have a problem winning this game by 2-plus runs Friday given the massive edge they have on the mound.  I look for Clayton Kershaw to shut down the Phillies, and for the Dodgers' offense to light up Roberto Hernandez.

While the former Cy Young winner has struggled a bit in the early going, there's no question he's still one of the top starters in the game, if not the best starter.  Kershaw has gone 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in four starts this season.  The left-hander went 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 2013.  He also went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 2012, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 2011.

Roberto Hernandez has been one of the worst starters in baseball for a couple years now.  He went 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 2011, 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 2012, and 6-13 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 2013.  Hernandez is currently 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 2014 as well.

The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dodgers are 23-7 in Kershaw's last 30 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +140

The Cleveland Indians (23-25) have turned their season around.  They swept AL Central rival Detroit in dramatic fashion from Monday-Wednesday.  They carried their momentum into an 8-7 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series as well.  I look for the good vibes to continue in Game 2 Friday.

The Orioles have no business being this heavily favored with Bud Norris on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 40-53 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 135 starts in his big league career.  He is overvalued due to a decent start in 2014, going 2-4 with a 3.8 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in eight starts.

T.J. House makes the first start of his big league career today, which is why he is being undervalued.  This guy has posted a 3.90 ERA in his minor league career.  He sports a 2.40 ERA and 1.113 WHIP over seven minor league starts in 2014, clearly proving that he's ready for the big leagues.

The Indians are 25-11 in their last 36 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.  Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five home games.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Norris' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.  Take the Indians Friday.

20* MLB Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +102

The Tampa Bay Rays (19-28) are obviously not off to the start they wanted this season.  However, because of that slow start, I believe they will be showing a lot of value in the coming weeks.  I certainly feel that is the case tonight as a home dog to the Oakland A's.

Amazingly, even with that slow start, the Rays are only six games out of first place in the American League East.  I still believe this will prove to be one of the best teams in that division by season's end.  They have had some injuries slow them down thus far, but they get a key piece back tonight.

The Rays have been eagerly awaiting the return of Cobb (1-1, 1.89 ERA), who missed more than a month with a strained oblique.  He has pitched seven scoreless innings in his last two starts.  In a rehab start Saturday, the right-hander gave up three hits, no walks and struck out nine in five scoreless innings.

Remember, Cobb was one of the better starters in the game that not too many folks knew about last year.  He went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts in 2013.  Cobb is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA and two complete games in his career against the A's.  He has allowed three runs in 16 1/3 innings to win his last two at home against Oakland.

After losing the first two games of this series, the Rays will be extra motivated tonight to avoid the sweep.  Tampa Bay is 8-3 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Rays are 5-0 in Cobb's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR Thunder/Spurs on UNDER 211.5

After an extremely high-scoring Game 1 with 227 combined points in a 122-105 San Antonio victory, I look for the defense to be much sharper tonight in Game 2 of this series.  That was the case in the Miami/Indiana series, and I expect the same thing to happen in this one as well.

After all, that Game 1 total was more of an aberration than anything, especially when you look at how these teams have fared against each other recently.  Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Thunder have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants +114

I was on the San Francisco Giants last night as they blew a 4-3 lead in the ninth inning to lost 4-5.  I look for them to come back motivated to avenge that loss in Game 2 of this series, and I like their chances at this great price due to their edge on the mound.

Matt Cain is still one of the best starters in the game today despite his relatively slow start to the season.  The right-hander has gone 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has given up three runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts against Colorado, including two or less six times.

Jhoulys Chacin is still looking for his first win of the season for Colorado.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in three starts this season.  Chacin has given up four or more runs in three of his last seven starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 25-8 in their last 33 games following a loss.  The Rockies are 0-4 in Chacin's last four starts.  San Francisco is 7-2 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 4-11 in Chacin's last 15 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Giants Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -125

The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NL West series Tuesday.  With the edge they have on the mound, they should be a much bigger favorite.

Madison Bumgarner has been one of the most underrated starters in the league since he was a rookie.  The left-hander has been solid again this year, going 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in nine starts, including 3-1 with a 1.39 ERA in five road starts.  Bumgaerner is 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA in 17 career starts against Colorado.

He'll be opposed by Franklin Morales, who has gone 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance in 2014.  Morales has struggled in four career starts against San Francisco as well, going 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.655 WHIP.

Colorado is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after a win by 2 runs or less this season.  The Giants are 7-1 in Bumgarner's last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockies are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3

I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1.  But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.

Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason.  They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.  Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game.  Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league.  It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.  Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +130

The Cleveland Indians (20-25) picked up a huge extra innings win last night in Game 1 of this series that I feel could be a turning point in their season.  Remember, this team made the AL Wild Card last year, and they are much better than they have shown up to this point.

Detroit is in a very tough situation.  It arrived just three hours before the first pitch last night because of travel delays from Boston.  These players did not get much sleep at all, obviously, and I look for that to affect them again tonight.

Justin Verlander just hasn't been the same dominant pitcher he was in 2012 over the past two regular seasons.  He has gone 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 2014, including 3-0 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in four road starts.

Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, gets the ball for the Indians tonight.  He has a bright future in this league.  Bauer struck out eight in six innings of a 2-1 loss to San Diego on April 9 in his lone start this season.  He had gone 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in seven starts for the Columbus Clippers at Triple-A before getting the call up tonight.

Verlander is a woeful 20-23 (-21.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 21-10 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Take Cleveland Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209

I look for a low-scoring affair between these familiar foes in Game 1 of this series Monday.  This is a rematch from the 2012 Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder won 4-2.  The familiarity will make points hard to come by in the opener tonight.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

One big key here is that Serge Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the regular season.  While he is a solid defender, it will hurt the Thunder a lot more on the other end of the floor.  Ibaka averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season and can make an 18-foot jumper with consistency.  That helps spread the floor, and the Thunder do not have another forward/center that can make that shot.  They will be in trouble offensively because of it.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-29 (65.9%) since 1996.  Seven of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Indians ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Indians -103

The Cleveland Indians have gotten off to a slow start this season, but they are undervalued as a result.  They need to pick it up here to avoid falling further behind Detroit in the AL Central.  One way to do that is to beat them head-to-head, which they'll have the opportunity to do starting with Game 1 of this series Monday.

Detroit is riding high right now on a six-game winning streak.  I believe this is the perfect letdown spot for the Tigers, and it's a big reason why I'm fading them.  They are coming off a three-game sweep in Boston, avenging their lost to the Red Sox in the ALCS.  Their Game 3 victory last night was televised on ESPN, so this is definitely a letdown spot.

Off four straight losses, Cleveland comes into this series highly motivated.  I like its chances of getting the job done in Game 1 with Corey Kluber on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in nine starts this season.

Kluber has been at his best at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in four starts.  He has dominated the Tigers in his last two starts against them, giving up just two earned runs and striking out 16 over 13 2/3 innings for a 1.32 ERA.

Kluber is 13-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 8-2 in Kluber's last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Take the Indians Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat.  Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.

Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season.  Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.

Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home.  Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.

The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season.  They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs.  No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers.  Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest.  I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -137

The Kansas City Royals (21-21) look to get back over .500 by taking Sunday's Game 4 against the Baltimore Orioles.  After losing two of the first three games in this series, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to square it up.

I like their chances of getting it done behind ace James Shields.  The right-hander has been the rock of this rotation for each of the past two years.  He has gone 5-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in nine starts in 2014.  Shields is 10-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 25 career starts against Baltimore.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Jimenez is 4-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against Kansas City as well.

Kansas City is 14-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games.  The Royals are 49-23 in their last 72 games as a favorite.  Kansas City is 12-3 in Shields' last 15 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -119

After losing the first two games of this series at home to the Baltimore Orioles, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back in a big way in Game 3 tonight.  They have a massive edge on the mound in this one that will lead them to victory.

Indeed, youngster Danny Duffy has been tremendous thus far in 2014.  He has posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.038 WHIP while striking out 17 batters in 18 1/3 innings this year.  Duffy allowed two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Baltimore in 2011.

Bud Norris has not fared well since being traded to the American League.  The right-hander went 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in nine starts and two relief appearances with Baltimore last season.  He has opened 2-3 with a 3.98 ERA in 2014, including 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four road starts.

The Royals are 48-23 in their last 71 games as a favorite.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Duffy's last five starts with eight or more days of rest.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite.  Kansas City is 5-1 in Duffy's last six home starts.  The Royals are 8-2 in Duffy's last 10 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -130

The New York Yankees (21-19) should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-23) in Game 1 of this interleague series. I look for them to tee off on Pittsburgh's scheduled starter and to put up a big number in this game Saturday.

Edinson Volquez is one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  He went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.585 WHIP over 32 starts between the Padres and Dodgers last year.  Volquez is 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 2014, including 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in his last three starts.

David Phelps has been nothing spectacular for the Yankees, but he's good enough to get the job done tonight and limit the Pirates to fewer runs than Volquez holds the Yankees to.  Phelps has posted a 4.09 ERA through 22 innings pitched in 2014.

The Pirates are 11-42 in their last 53 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 20-55 in its last 75 interleague road games overall.  The Yankees are 38-17 in their last 55 interleague games as a favorite.  New York is 8-2 in its last 10 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  The Yankees are 7-1 in Phelps' last eight home starts.  New York is 5-0 in Phelps' last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -135

The Los Angeles Angels are a much-improved team this season at 22-18.  A big reason for that has been the health of ace Jered Weaver, who missed a  big portion of last season due to injury.

Weaver has gone 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be up against a Tampa Bay (18-24) team that is struggling this year due to injuries in its starting rotation.

Those injuries have opened the door for Chris Archer to start, which hasn't been good for the Rays.  Archer has gone 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay is 3-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  Weaver is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997.  The Angels are 26-6 in Weaver's last 32 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 53-25 in Weaver's last 78 starts overall.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Tigers/Red Sox Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +102

The Detroit Tigers (24-12) want revenge from losing to the Boston Red Sox (20-20) in the AL Championship Series last year.  I look for them to come into this series with a chip on their shoulder, and to get Game 1 Friday behind one of the best starters in the business.

2013 AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has picked up right where he left off last season.  He went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.970 WHIP with 240 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings last year.  Scherzer has opened 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP with 66 K's in 53 innings in 2014.

Jon Lester has really turned it around these last two seasons, but he's still no match for Scherzer.  Lester has gone 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.  Scherzer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts against Boston.  He has posted a 2.31 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings over those four starts.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.  The Tigers are 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons.  Detroit is 8-0 in its last eight road games.

These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Tigers tonight.  Also, Scherzer is 21-3 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Tigers Friday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 212

This series has gotten much more low-scoring as it has gone on.  Game 4 and Game 5 have been the two lowest-scoring games of the series.  The Thunder and Clippers combined for 200 points in Game 4 and 209 points in Game 5.

As teams become more familiar with one another over the course of a series, it favors the defenses.  Both of these teams know what the other is trying to do now.  OKC wants to isolate Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, while LAC wants to run pick and roll with Chris Paul.

The defenses have clearly made the adjustments in these past two games based off of shooting percentages.  The Clippers shot 41.9% in Game 4 and 43.2% in Game 5.  The Thunder shot 44% in Game 4 and 42.9% in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 36-13 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians +100

The Cleveland Indians are showing tremendous value as an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They should not be a dog in this contest given the massive edge they have on the mound, coupled with their confidence at the plate coming in.

Indeed, the Indians are coming off their highest-scoring game of the season in a 15-4 rout of the Blue Jays yesterday.  They pounded out a season-high 22 hits, including five each from David Murphy and Lonnie Chisenhall in the win.  The last five hitters combined to go 17 of 29 with eight runs scored and 11 RBIs.

Danny Salazar, who went 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.135 WHIP with 65 strikeouts in 52 innings in 10 starts last year, got off to a slow start this year.  However, he has returned to form of late, going 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 21 batters in 18 1/3 innings.

He'll be opposed by J.A. Happ, who amazes me each time he takes the mound because the fact of the matter is that he should not be a starter in the big leagues.  Happ has been awful again in 2014, going 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.966 WHIP over two starts and three relief appearances.  Happ went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA in 2011, 10-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 2012, and 5-7 with a 4.56 ERA in 2013.

Cleveland is 55-29 (+22.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3-game span over the last three seasons. 

Toronto is 1-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 40-17 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 1-8 in Happ's last nine home starts.  Take the Indians Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8

It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker.  After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.

Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series.  The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game.  The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.

I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker.  The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.

The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Giants UNDER 6.5

I look for an absolute pitcher's duel this afternoon between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants.  Both teams will be sending their best starters to the mound in this one, and runs will be very hard to come by as a result.

Julio Teheran is 2-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in eight starts this season for Atlanta.  The right-hander has gone 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.

Madison Bumgarner continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  He has gone 4-3 with a 2.83 ERA in eight starts this season for the Giants.  The left-hander is also 4-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in eight career stars against Atlanta.  He has given up one earned run over 20 innings in his last three starts against the Braves.

Bumgarner is 20-6 UNDER (+13.0 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER in day games this season.  Bumgarner is 21-7 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Braves last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 22-5-2 in Braves last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Teheran's last 33 starts overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5.  They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99.  After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.

All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4.  The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win.  This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.

The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close.  I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots.  I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball.  Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor.  Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.

Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -111

Any time you get the chance to fade the lowly Houston Astros (12-27) at this kind of price you should take advantage.  Getting the Rangers as this small of a favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

That's especially the case when you consider Texas is 25-4(+16.9 units) in all meetings with Houston over the last three seasons, including 12-2 (+8.7 units) in 14 meetings in Houston.  Dating back further, the Rangers are 42-11 in the last 53 meetings, and 22-5 in their last 27 meetings in Houston.

Matt Harrison appears to be his old self this season as he recently returned from injury.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA in three starts, allowing just five earned runs over 15 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Dallas Keuchel, who is 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA in four home starts in 2014.  Keuchel is 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts against Texas.

Houston is 22-80 (-37.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 8-2 in Harrison's last 10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Astros are 12-42 in their last 54 games overall.  Houston is 2-8 in Keuchel's last 10 home starts.  Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres Tuesday.  I'll take advantage and back them at this generous price.

Mike Leake is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is coming off a 2013 season in which he went 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 31 starts.  Leake dominated San Diego in two starts last year, posting a 0.64 ERA while allowing just one earned run in 14 innings.

Andrew Cashner is certainly a solid starter in his own right, but he's much better at home than he is on the road.  Cashner has gone 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three starts away from home in 2014.  Cashner gave up five runs, three earned, and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-7 loss to the Reds in his only career start against them last year.

Leake is 30-11 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in his career.  San Diego is 2-8 in Cashner's last 10 starts as an underdog.  Cincinnati is 61-26 in its last 87 when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +105

The Atlanta Braves get the nod as a small road underdog to the San Francisco Giants Monday.  Game 1 of this series is a huge letdown spot for the Giants, who are coming off a series against their biggest rival in the Los Angeles Dodgers in which they beat them 3-1.  They won't show up to the park with the same intensity as they normally would tonight.

However, my biggest reason for backing the Braves is the edge that they have on the mound.  Gavin Floyd was brilliant in his first start back from Tommy John Surgery, and his first start while a member of the National League.  He gave up just one earned run over seven innings of a 2-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on May 6th, and his switch to the NL will really benefit him over time.

Tim Lincecum has simply lost it.  He went 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 2013.  He hasn't been any better thus far in 2014, going 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.710 WHIP through seven starts.  Floyd is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against San Francisco.

Atlanta is 21-7 (+14.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Braves Monday.

15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +101

Mark Buehrle is having a fine season for the Toronto Blue Jays thus far.  However, there is no way this guy has simply gotten better with age.  He has been lucky in the early going, and now he is overvalued as a result.  The Blue Jays should not be favored over the Angels today.

Buehrle got simply destroyed in two starts against the Angels last year.  He posted an 11.70 ERA in those two starts, giving up 13 earned runs, 22 base runners and a whopping 5 home runs over 10 innings of work.  Buehrle clearly does not like facing this potent Los Angeles lineup.

C.J. Wilson continues to be one of the better pitchers in baseball year in and year out.  The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three road starts.

Los Angeles is 14-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.  Wilson is 26-7 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career.  Los Angeles is 12-3 in Wilson's last 15 road starts.  Take the Angels Monday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Mariners OVER 7

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners today.  The first three games in this series have seen 1, 7 and 4 combined runs, respectively, which has provided us some nice value with the OVER in Game 3.

The first three pitching match-ups were also much better than this Game 4 showdown.  This is easily the worst pitching match-up yet with Jeremy Guthrie taking on Roenis Elias.  I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie gives up seven runs on his own.

Guthrie is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA through seven starts this season, which are decent numbers.  However, Guthrie is 2-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle.  Guthrie is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, giving up 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 29 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his past five starts against Seattle.

The OVER is 9-2-2 in Mariners last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Mariners last 14 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Royals last seven games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals -120

I know I've been backing the Kansas City Royals quite a bit lately, but this team is undervalued off to a slow 17-18 start.  I have backed them successfully in three of their last four games, and I look for them to win their fourth game in five days tonight as well.

That's because they will be sending their best starter to the mound in Yordano Ventura, who simply does not get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Ventura is a phenom, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.028 WHIP while striking out 41 batters over 36 innings this season.

He'll be opposed by the washed up Chris Young.  While Young is off to a solid start this season at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.246 WHIP, I just know he cannot sustain it.  Ventura allowed one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Seattle last year.

Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 70-21 (76.9%) since 1997.

The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City is 24-9 in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Royals are 46-21 in their last 67 games as a favorite.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* Nets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

This entire season series has been pretty low scoring between the Brookyn Nets and Miami Heat.  I look for that trend to continue in Game 3 tonight now that these teams are very familiar with each other as this will be their 7th meeting of the season.

I look for Game 3 to take on a similar tone to Game 2, which was defense, defense, defense.  Miami beat Brooklyn 94-82 for 176 combined points.  In fact, each of the last five meetings this season have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

Brooklyn's only chance to beat Miami is to slow it down and play at a snail's pace.  That's what it had success doing in the regular season, and playing at home in Game 3, I look for it to control the tempo in this one.  The Nets rank 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Miami ranks 27th in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

Erik Spoelstra is 33-13 to the UNDER in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread as the coach of Miami.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +129

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as an underdog in any interleague game.  This is the simple result of the Milwaukee Brewers being overvalued due to their fast start this season, and that's really starting to show.

The Brewers have dropped three straight and five of their last six to fall to 22-14 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Yankees have won three straight.  I like their chances to make it four in a row with C.C. Sabathia on the mound.  The left-hander is 3-1 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in four road starts this season.

Sabathia is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Lohse, who is 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in six career starts against New York.  The Brewers are scoring just 3.1 runs per game at home this year, while the Yankees are scoring 4.9 per game on the road.

Milwaukee is 8-28 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.  Lohse is 2-10 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons.  New York is 10-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

The Yankees are 22-6 in their last 28 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 interleague starts.  The Brewers are 4-17 in their last 21 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -122

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back arguably the best pitcher in baseball at this kind of price, especially against a team like the lowly San Diego Padres.  I'll take advantage tonight and back the red-hot Marlins behind ace Jose Fernandez.

Miami has won five straight and nine of its last 10 games to get to 20-15 on the season.  You have to like its chances of continuing this hot streak behind Fernandez, who won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2013.

Fernandez has picked up right where he left off last year, going 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.900 WHIP with 65 strikeouts over 46 2/3 innings.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego, pitching 14 2/3 shutout innings while striking out 18 and allowing just eight base runners.

Tyson Ross is 4-14 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons.  The Marlins are 7-0 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  Miami is 9-1 in Fernandez's last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Padres are 1-7 in Ross' last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Take the Marlins Friday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -109

After a brutal 1-0 loss to the Mariners last night, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back in a big way Friday due to the edge they have on the mound.  Hisashi Iwakuma had it going last night for Seattle, but Kansas City's eyes will light up with the opportunity to face tonight's opponent.

The Royals will be up against Brandon Maurer, who has been nothing short of atrocious thus far in 2014.  He has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over three starts this year, averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start.  He gave up a combined nine earned runs over 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.

Former Mariner Jason Vargas is having a solid season, going 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in seven starts, including 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in three road starts.  He clearly loves facing his former team.  Vargas went 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in three starts against Seattle in 2013.

Seattle is 3-14 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after allowing two runs or less two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Mariners are 3-9 in Maurer's last 12 starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5

Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series.  Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3.  I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.

Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory.  Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back.  Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.

Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs.  In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years.  I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.

The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals +121

The Kansas City Royals are putting together a winning streak off a 5-game losing streak this past week.  They have won two in a row and are coming together as a team after an 8-0 victory at San Diego last night.  I look for them to get back to .500 on the season with a third straight win Thursday night.

Left-hander Danny Duffy gets the ball for the Royals looking to improve on his spectacular season to this point.  He has posted a 2.19 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 12 1/3 innings with 13 strikeouts to boot.

Seattle comes into this game fatigued after playing a double-header against Oakland yesterday.  Hisashi Iwakuma will be making his second start of the season for the Mariners after a poor outing in his first.  He gave up four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings to the lowly Houston Astros on May 3rd.

The Mariners are 9-20 (-21.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 6-0 in Duffy's last six road starts.  Kansas City is 8-1 in Duffy's last nine starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Thursday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.

I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington.  Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6.  That's not going to happen again.

Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.  This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down.  Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.

Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals +101

The Kansas City Royals get the nod Wednesday as a small road underdog to the San Diego Padres.  I was on the Royals last night and watched most of their game, including their finish in extra innings with a 3-1 victory.

Off a 5-game losing streak, this team is ready to now start a winning streak.  I liked how fired up the players were with everything that went their way, including the two runs they scored in the 11th inning to ultimately win it.  Despite a relatively slow start to the year, I have not doubt this is still one of the better teams in the league.

Now, Kansas City gives the ball to its ace, and we're getting him as an underdog here.  James Shields just continues to prove he's one of the best in the business.  The right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five road starts.

He'll be opposed by Andrew Cashner, who is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last three starts for San Diego.  Shields is 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 14-3 in Shields' last 17 road starts.  Kansas City is 8-1 in Shields' last nine road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Royals Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals +107

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to put an end to a 5-game losing streak.  They let me down last night, blowing a 3-0 lead and then twice blowing save opportunities in the 9th and 12th innings, respectively.  I'll still come back to them tonight.

Not only do I believe that the Royals have the better lineup, which is a no-brainer, they also have the edge on the mound.  Jeremy Guthrie has gone 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in six starts this season.  In his lone career start at San Diego, he allowed just one earned run over eight innings of a 7-1 victory.

Robbie Erlin has not been very good for San Diego and has no business being favored here.  The left-hander is 1-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.399 WHIP over five starts and one relief appearance this season.  The Padres are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.7 runs per game this year.

The Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Kansas City is 13-5 in Guthrie's last 18 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 5-1 in Guthrie's last six starts following a team loss int heir previous game.  The Padres are 0-4 in Erlin's last four starts.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -112

Following a season-high seven game losing streak, the Atlanta Braves have fallen to 17-14 on the season.  There's no doubt they will be motivated to put an end to this skid tonight, and I'll back them as a result.  Rarely ever will you get them as this small of a home favorite.

Gavin Floyd makes his season debut for Atlanta.  He previously pitched for the Chicago White Sox in the American League, and just like it does with most pitchers, I believe the switch to the National League will do wonders for this guy.  He'll be up against a Cardinals team that is hitting just .233 and scoring 3.0 runs per game on the road this year.

St. Louis will be sending a weak link in its rotation to the mound tonight.  Left-hander Tyler Lyons gets the ball, and he is 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.133 WHIP over two starts and two relief appearances in 2014.  Atlanta is 3-1 against left-handed starters this season.  It is hitting .277 and scoring 4.5 runs per game off southpaws.

Lyons is 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA in eight starts since winning at Kansas City last May 28.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in Lyons' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Braves are 76-35 in their last 111 home games.  Atlanta is 72-30 in its last 102 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Take the Braves Tuesday.

15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season.  Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck.  I'm not buying it.

Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami.  I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season.  I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.

Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series.  While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach.  On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston".  That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.

Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling.  Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat.  The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.

Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years.  Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Nets Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -115

Yordano Ventura is one of the must underrated starters in the game because he's a young guy that not too many folks know about.  As a result, we've been able to back him at tremendous prices all season, and that continues tonight as a small favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres.

These prices aren't going to last forever because the betting public will eventually catch on.  For now, we'll take advantage.  Ventura is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in five starts this season, striking out 31 batters in 30 innings.  The right-hander is also 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his two road starts.

He'll be opposed by Eric Stults, who is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in six starts this season.  Stults isn't likely to get much run support today as the Padres are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.6 runs per game this season.  Simply put, they have the worst offense in baseball.

Off four straight losses, the Royals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 today.  Kansas City is 7-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three straight games where they had 7 or less hits over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 29-9 in their last 38 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Royals Monday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.

We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1.  It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.

The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it.  Their other two losses came by a combined five points.  I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.

I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder.  Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits.  Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games.  The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -130

I have taken the Braves in the first two games of this series unsuccessfully.  I'll take my medicine, but not without getting out of this series with a victory.  I'm going to back them in Game 3 as they avoid the sweep against the San Francisco Giants.

Atlanta has now lost five straight games heading into this one.  Their motivation is at an all-time high as they'll be looking to put an end to this skid.  I like taking teams that are motivated, especially good teams like the Braves, who are still 17-12 on the season after losing five straight.

Alex Wood is one of the better starters in the game, and he's just in his second year as a pro.  The left-hander has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through six starts this season, including a 1.38 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his two home starts.  He'll be up against Madison Bumgarner, who is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in six starts this year.

The Braves are 23-5 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 25-7 in its last 32 home games following a loss.  The Braves are 72-28 in their last 100 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Atlanta is 76-33 in its last 109 home games overall.  The Giants are 6-14 in Bumgarner's last 20 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors.  Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year.  However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7.  Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.

That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting.  Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.

Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along.  However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night.  I'll take the points as a result.

Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs.  Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -166

Off four consecutive losses, you can be certain that the Atlanta Braves will be playing motivated baseball Saturday.  I like their chances of getting a win with ace Julio Teheran on the mound.

Teheran is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco.

Teheran will be opposed by Ryan Vogelsong, who is washed up.  Vogelsong is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in five starts this year, and 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 13-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are 18-4 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  Atlanta is 13-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Braves Saturday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 213

Close out games tend to be played at a slower pace due to the value of each possession. We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

Finally, after a 4-0 OVER run through their first four games of this series, the Rockets and Blazers went UNDER in Game 5 as Houston won 108-98 at home for 206 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in Game 6 here tonight as the pace in this series has really slowed down, and that should continue.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, which is a complete fluke and has led to the inflation of their totals in this series, including tonight.  Those overtime games make it seem like these teams score a lot more points when they get together than they really do.  Plus, what are the chances of this game going to OT for a 5th time in 7 meetings?

Another reason I'm backing the UNDER is that Houston started Omer Asik and Dwight Howard, two centers, together for the first time all season in Game 5.  It worked as they held Portland to just 98 points and 43.4% shooting while deploying that defensive lineup.  The Rockets are sure to go back to that line-up in Game 6, which will help pave the way for the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -131

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with the San Francisco Giants.  They just got swept in three games by the Miami Marlins on the road last season, which leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Mike Minor makes his season debut tonight for the Braves looking to improve upon their starting staff's MLB-leading 2.32 ERA.  The left-hander went 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA last season.  He has never lost to the Giants, going 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Minor will be opposed by Tim Lincecum, who is somehow washed up already.  The right-hander went 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 2013.  Lincecum is 1-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.636 WHIP through five starts in 2014.

Atlanta is 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 4 runs or less three straight games over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 9-0 in Minor's last nine starts vs. NL West opponents.  The Braves are 23-3 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I'll back the UNDER in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.  These close out games always seemed to be played at a slower pace because every possession is so important. 

We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

These teams exploded for 228 combined points in Game 5, which has forced the books to inflate this number.  Brooklyn shot 53.3% from the floor, 47.8% (11-of-23) from 3-point range, and shot 30 free throws.  Toronto shot 48.1% from the floor, 46.2% (12-of-26) from 3-point range, and 36 free throws. 

This game after a 166-point performance in Game 4 in an 87-79 Toronto victory.  Clearly, Game 5 was the aberration in this series.  I look for Game 6 to take on a similar tone to Game 4.  Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

 20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -132 (Game 2)

Chris Tillman is one of the better starters in the big leagues that not too many folks know about.  He is the ace of this Baltimore Orioles' staff, and he has pitched like it the past two-plus years.  The 26-year-old went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 2013.

Tillman has opened 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in five starts in 2014.  He has been virtually untouchable at home, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his two home starts while allowing one earned run in 13 innings.

Pittsburgh's starting staff owns a 3-13 record, including a 1-8 mark with a 4.68 ERA in their last 14 games.  Fill-in starter Brandon Cumpton will be making his second start of the season for Pittsburgh in the second game of today's double-header.  The Orioles have gone 5-1 in their last six interleague home meetings with the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 0-8 (-8.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Orioles are 45-16 in their last 51 games following an off day.  Baltimore is 10-4 in Tillman's last 14 home starts.  Bet the Orioles in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7.  They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.

The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games.  Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four.  Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.

Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1

The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series.  I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta.  I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.

Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107.  Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191

Once again, the books have set the bar too high in this Game 5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.  I backed the UNDER in Game 4 with an 87-79 Toronto victory and 166 combined points.  I look for Game 5 to take on a similar defensive tone.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games are 374-268 (58.3%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Nets last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Raptors last seven conference quarterfinal games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs.  Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.

The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio.  Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4.  This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.

Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss.  Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 187.5

The books have once again set the bar too high in this Game 5 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  They have done so because each of the last three games have gone to overtime in this series, which has inflated the number.

The chances of a fourth straight OT game are slim to none, and thus this game should finish well UNDER the posted total.  Heck, Game 4 finished with 181 combined points despite overtime in a 92-89 OKC victory.  In fact, three of the first four games in this series have finished with 186 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

As this series has gone on, points have been even harder to come by.  These teams combined for 170 points at the end of regulation in Game 3, and 170 points again at the end of regulation in Game 4.  These teams are so familiar with one another having played against each other in the playoffs last year, and that familiarity has led to great defense.

Memphis is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 28 road games.  Oklahoma City is 29-11 to the UNDER in its last 40 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Grizzlies last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Intereleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -143

I'll gladly fade the worst team in baseball over the last three years tonight.  The Houston Astros have loss more than 100 games in three straight seasons, and they are off to a 9-17 start this season.  They are hitting just .210 and scoring 3.3 runs per game on the year.

They will need a lot of run support for starter Jarred Cosart, who is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in five starts this season.  That isn't likely to happen against left-hander Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts this year.

Gonzalez has put on a clinic in his two career starts against the Astros.  The southpaw has gone 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in those two starts, allowing just three earned runs and 15 base runners in 16 innings while striking out 15.

Washington is 44-16 in its last 60 games as a road favorite.  The Nationals are 17-4 in Gonzalez's last 21 starts as a road favorite.  Washington is 17-4 in Gonzalez's last 21 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Houston is 20-73 (-33.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take the Nationals Friday.

20* Mavs/Spurs TNT Monday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

Off back-to-back overs in this series, the total has been inflated Monday in Game 4 between Dallas and San Antonio.  This is the highest total set of the series, which alone lets you know that there's value with the UNDER.

These teams have shot lights out in the past two games, and that's just unlikely to happen again, especially anything close to what they did in Game 3.  In Game 2, the Mavs won 113-92 and shot 48.9% while the Spurs shot 50.0%.  In Game 3, the Mavs won 109-108 and shot 51.2%, while San Antonio shot 54.3%.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar a team is with its opponent.  That familiarity tends to lead toward low-scoring games.  That's why you'll see the totals in most series get lowered as it goes on.  Again, the fact that this is the highest total of the series thus far assures that we're getting some value here.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is  4-0 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -120

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies today.  Given how well their starting pitcher has fared against tonight's opponent, you'll understand why I have no problem laying a little juice to back them.

Indeed, Wade Miley has never suffered a loss to the Rockies.  He has gone a perfect 7-0 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

He'll be up against Franklin Morales, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.  Morales is no more than a fill-in starter in this league and wouldn't make most rotations.

Colorado is 4-20 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.  The Rockies are 27-57 (-20.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Nets/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Clippers/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland -144

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Thunder/Grizzlies Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Simply put, if you were on board with me in Game 3 of this series, you got robbed as did I.  We had the UNDER 191 in Game 3, which was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation for 170 combined points.  We still nearly won in overtime, but ultimately got the loss due to some late free throws in a 98-95 (OT) Memphis victory.

So, two of the first three meetings in this series have gone to overtime.  Two were well UNDER the posted total at the end of regulation with 186 combined points in Game 1 and 170 in Game 3.  Dating back further, 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have seen 188 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

I look for Game 4 to take on a similar path as Game 3, but hopefully this time we don't get burned by overtime.  The chances of three of the first four games going to OT are slim to none, and that's the only way I foresee this Game 4 surpassing this posted total.  This will be a defensive battle between these bitter rivals who are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs last year.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 45-24 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -138

This is a very generous price to get the Oakland A's at against the Houston Astros.  They are 5-0 against the Astros this season, and I see no reason they don't improve to 6-0 with a win Saturday.

My analysis is condensed today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Spurs/Mavericks Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high for this Game 3 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.  With the series tied 1-1, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a victory in this all-important Game 3.

After combining for just 175 points in Game 1, these teams combined for 205 points in Game 2.  I fully expect Game 3 to fall somewhere in between.  Dallas got a ton of easy points en route to a 112-93 victory in Game 2 thanks to 22 turnovers from San Antonio, which won't happen again. 

The Spurs shot 50.0% from the field while the Mavs shot 48.9% in Game 2, and I don't expect either team to connect at that high of a clip again.  Game 3 is where the defensive adjustments usually come into play, which makes it harder for each team to score.  That's why you have seen my taking a bunch of UNDERS in Game 3's.  The following trend explains why.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4.  I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta.  They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.

The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win.  They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again.  They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game. 

Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late.  The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range.  Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way.  The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.

Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses.  Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win.  Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Houston and Portland for Game 3 Friday.  After getting robbed on the UNDER in Game 2 with a total set of 215 points and a final combined score of 217, I have no doubt this Game 3 showdown will be more low-scoring.

Indeed, Game 2 was well on pace to go UNDER until the final few minutes where fouls piled up and neither team missed a free throw.  They combined for 57 points.  It was a 100-93 game with 3 minutes left, giving us 22 points to work with.  That would usually lead to an UNDER 90% of the time, but some bad breaks with fouls in the end led to 24 combined points over the final 3 minutes, which is almost unheard of.

Last night, all three Game 3's should have went UNDER the total.  The Hawks/Pacers game did and so did the Clippers/Warriors contest.  The only reason the Grizzlies/Thunder game went over was due to overtime in a game that was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation, which was 20 points under the posted total of 190.

Yes, I was on that under and a little bitter about it still today, but I can take some consolation in knowing I was on the right side of it, but again had a bad break to take the loss.  Game 3 is where I really like to play the UNDERS because it's where the adjustments have been made after the first two games to where both teams are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

I especially like this 'UNDER' in the Rockets/Blazers Game 3 because the first two games have gone over the total, which has kept this line inflated.  Neither game should have went over because the first game went into overtime tied 106-106 at the end of regulation, while Game 2 had that onslaught of points late to get the over by a mere two points.  It would take another miracle for Game 3 to go 'over' as well, and I'll bank on it not happening.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -1.5 (-117)

The Oakland A's are not going to take the Houston Astros lightly considering they were swept last series by the Texas Rangers.  That was evident in Game 1 of this series as the A's rolled to a 10-1 victory.  I expect a similar beat down in Game 2.

Oakland has been the most underrated team in baseball over the last couple years.  That has been the case again in 2014 as many picked the Rangers and Angels to finish ahead of them.  They are tied with the Rangers for 1st place in the division at 14-8, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road where they are scoring 5.8 runs per game.

Once again, it appears like the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball.  At 7-16, this team is on pace for a 4th consecutive 100-loss season.  The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games overall, and seven of those losses have come by two runs or more, which is a big reason why we're backing the A's on the run line in this one.

Jesse Chavez has been brilliant through four starts, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.923 WHIP while striking out 28 batters in 26 innings.  He beat today's scheduled starter Brad Peacock 4-1 on April 20 just five days ago.  Peacock is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.905 WHIP through 14 2/3 innings this season.

Plays against home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-130 to +110) (HOUSTON) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 30-9 (76.9%, +21.1 units) since 1997. 

Houston is 2-11 against the run line (-9.9 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 28-11 against the run line (+18.0 Units) after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits over the last three seasons.  The A's are 41-17 against the run line (+26.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last three seasons.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for.  Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over.  This team plays its best when it is counted out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team.  The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him.  He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.

Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home.  That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th.  Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.

The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team.  They know a series isn't over until its over.  Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs.  While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here.  They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.

Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago.  Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Raptors/Nets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I expect Game 3 to play out similar to Game 1 where the Nets beat the Raptors 94-87 for 181 combined points.  I believe Game 2 was the aberration as these teams combined for 195 points in a 100-95 Toronto victory.

Game 2 was playing out just like Game 1 through three quarters.  They had combined for 40, 44 and 46 points in the first three quarters, respectively.  However, the teams exploded for 65 combined points in the fourth quarter, which made the final score seem like less of a defensive battle than it really was.

Kevin Garnett spoke openly about how Brooklyn's fourth quarter defense was unacceptable as it allowed the Raptors to put up 36 points.  You can bet that the Nets will come back with tremendous intensity defensively in Game 3.  Toronto will also bring it on that end of the floor like it has all season.  The Raptors rank 9th in the league in defensive efficiency.

This has certainly been a half-court series to this point, and I don't expect that to change in Game 3.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Toronto ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game.  Neither team will look to run much in Game 3, especially with the adjustments that will be made, which will favor both defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The books are overreacting by raising this total set in Game 3 between the Clippers and Warriors compared to the first two games in this series.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be the lowest-scoring game of the series by far.

The defense was a little shoddy in Game 1 as they combined for 214 points with a total set of 211.  They Warriors played no defense in a 98-138 loss in Game 2, content that they had stolen Game 1.  It was such a big blowout that the starters got pulled in the second half and the points kept piling on with no defense being played due to the outcome already being decided.  Game 2's total was set at 212.5 points, and Game 3's is now 215.5.  As you can see, the value is with the UNDER because of it.

You can bet that both teams will be bringing 100% effort defensively in this Game 3.  Golden State wants to make amends for it's embarrassing Game 2 showdown, while Los Angeles wants to regain home-court advantage.  These teams are very familiar with how one another wants to play, which favors the defenses moving forward.  Adjustments will be made, especially considering these teams have had two days' rest to prepare, which again favors defense.

Prior to the first two games of this series, six of the last seven meetings between the Clippers and Warriors had seen 209 or fewer combined points.  I simply believe the first two games of this series were an aberration.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 40-12 (76.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the highest they have set the total for any of the first three games in this series.

They have done so following a high-scoring game in Game 2.  However, the only reason that game saw 216 combined points is because it went to overtime.  There were also a ton of fouls at the end of regulation that inflated the final score.  In fact, these teams combined for 65 points in the final period after combing for 40, 49 and 44 points in the first three.  This number has been inflated due to Game 2's final score.

The defensive intensity in Game 3 will be even higher than it was the first two games.  Both teams will be trying to get home-court advantage in the series with a win.  Also, having played twice already, these teams are familiar with one another, which favors the defenses.  They have also had two days off in between Game 2 and Game 3 to prepare, which will benefit the defenses as well with the adjustments that will be made.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 29-10 in Thunder's last 39 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks.  They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3.  They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.

Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission.  I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.

The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here.  They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in.  If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time.  There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

These teams have lit up the scoreboard in each of their first two games of this series.  They combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2, and I look for this high-scoring trend to continue in Game 3 with a couple of below-average starters on the mound.

Bud Norris is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two road starts.  Drew Hutchinson is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in four starts this year, and 0-1 with a 16.22 ERA and 2.703 WHIP in his lone home start.

Toronto is hitting .267 and scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season.  Baltimore is hitting .295 and scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road this year.  This will be the second match-up between Norris and Hutchinson this season, and while the first was low-scoring on a cold night in Baltimore, I believe this one will be the complete opposite indoors in the Rogers Centre.

Toronto is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after scoring 8 or more runs over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 14-2 to the OVER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last two years.  The OVER is 7-0 in Orioles last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 29-11-1 in Blue Jays last 41 games as a home favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1.  That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate.  It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total. 

Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory.  They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation.  The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game. 

While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go.  That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him.  I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.

This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason.  The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER.  I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles +103

The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  I'm going to back them at this tremendous price as they bounce back from a 3-9 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in four starts this season.  He went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 2013. 

Tillman has posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 11 career starts against Toronto, and he has allowed just one earned runs and 10 base runners over 15 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays.  It's safe to say that he loves facing this team.

Dustin McGowan is not very good, period.  He is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three starts this season.  McGowan has gone 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore, so this is certainly one team he struggles with.

Tillman is 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 17-4 in Tillman's last 21 starts with a total set of 9.0-10.5.  Baltimore is 22-8 in Tillman's last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 17-7 in Tillman's last 24 road starts.  Take the Orioles Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5

After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.  This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.  They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.

Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down.  John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality.  They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight.  The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.

The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996.  Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years.  The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season.  Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7

The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them.  They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year.  They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.

Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line.  A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line.  It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department.  Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.

I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year.  They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.

Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series.  Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -101

The Kansas City Royals send ace James Shields to the mound tonight looking to put an end to a 2-game losing streak.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 off a 3-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians in Game 1 due to Shields' dominance in this one.

Shields has posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.963 WHIP through four starts this season while striking out 26 batters in 27 innings.  The right-hander sports a 3.84 ERA in 14 career starts against Cleveland.  He is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Indians, yielding three earned runs over 14 innings.

Danny Salazar is off to a rough start this season for Cleveland.  He has gone 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.927 WHIP over three starts, allowing 12 earned runs, 27 base runners and 4 homers over 14 innings.  Salazar has faced the Royals once, yielding four earned runs over six innings for a 6.00 ERA.

Shields is 7-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last three seasons. Shields is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 12-3 in Shields' last 15 road starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125

The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.  Both starting pitchers in Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 6.28 ERA) and R.A. Dickey (1-3, 6.26 ERA) have struggled to open the season, but their head-to-head numbers are the telling story leading into this one.

Gonzalez is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.  In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, the right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA while allowing just one earned runs and nine base runners over 12 1/3 innings.

Dickey has really struggled of late against Baltimore, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.  The knuckleballer has given up 16 earned runs, 5 homers, and 32 base runners over 18 2/3 innings in those three outings against the Orioles, who clearly have him figured out.

Baltimore is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a right-handed start.  The Orioles are 4-0 in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.  Baltimore is a very profitable 71-64 (+32.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Clippers UNDER 212.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for the defense to be much better in Game 2 and for points to be harder to come by.  It won't take much considering they combined for 214 points in a 109-105 Golden State victory Saturday.

The perception is that the Warriors and Clippers don't play much defense, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  In fact, the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers rank 7th in that same category, yielding 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

These teams did combine for 209 or fewer points in three of their four regular season meetings.  So, if anything, Game 1's 214-point total was the aberration.  Both teams made 10 3-pointers and shot over 40% from distance, which isn't likely to happen again.

The UNDER is 40-18 in Warriors last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +105

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers with ace Andrew Cashner on the mound.  This guy is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and I look for him to shut down the Brewers tonight.

Cashner went 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in his first full season as a starter in 2013.  He has backed it up by going 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in three starts in 2014.  That includes a complete game shutout against the Detroit Tigers on April 11.

Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to its 14-5 start to the season.  It will be tired tonight after going 14 innings and winning 3-2 in Pittsburgh Sunday.  It's only human nature to suffer a letdown after a big win like that.  The Brewers are hitting .192 and scoring 2.3 runs/game at home this year.

The Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  San Diego is 4-0 in its last four games following a loss.  The Padres are 4-0 in thier last four Monday games.  San Diego is 4-0 in Cashner's last four starts during Game 1 of a series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the road team.  Take the Padres Monday.

15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5

The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.

However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.

The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.

The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.

This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season.  The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10

The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.

Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.

Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.

The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.

The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.

Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite.  The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series.  Bet the Bobcats Sunday.