Winning Sports Picks

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -116

The Texas Rangers are highly motivated to get to .500 on the season.  They sit at 22-23 now after winning each of their last four games while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate today and to sweep the Oakland A's thanks to their advantage on the mound.

Dane Dunning has been solid for the Rangers this season with a 4.32 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine starts.  Dunning has owned the A's, posting a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.

James Kaprielian is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-2 with a 5.48 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.37 ERA in two home starts.  Kaprielian is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Rangers, allowing 7 earned runs in 9 innings.

Oakland is 0-10 when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 8 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The A's are 1-11 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 1.300 WHIP or better this season.  Roll with the Rangers Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +110

The Seattle Mariners have the advantage on the mound tonight over the Houston Astros.  They should not be underdogs because of it.

Logan Gilbert is 4-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in nine starts this season and living up to his massive potential as a top prospect.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.

Jose Urquidy is 4-1 in spite of a 4.24 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, posting a 6.55 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in five starts away from home.  Urquidy is 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four career starts against Seattle.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Mariners on April 17th earlier this season.  Roll with the Mariners Saturday.

20* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -107

The Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after dropping the first two games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Look for them to get back in the win column in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Michael Lorenzen is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Angels.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in four home starts.

He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who is having a solid season at 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in eight starts.  But he has been at his worst on the road, going 0-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.

What really stood out here is that Kikuchi has been terrible against Los Angeles dating back to his time with Seattle.  Indeed, Kikuchi is 1-4 with a 10.62 ERA and 2.259 WHIP in seven career starts against the Angels, and his teams are 1-6 in those seven starts.  Los Angeles is scoring 5.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Take the Angels Saturday.

20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague No-Brainer on Chicago White Sox -136

We are getting the Chicago White Sox at a great value today as a short home favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs.  They should be much bigger favorites, but the Cubs are getting respect because Keegan Thompson has put up solid numbers in his two starts this season against the Pirates and Padres.  This will be his toughest test yet.

I like what I've seen from Johnny Cueto in his two starts for the White Sox.  He has pitched 12 shutout innings in two road starts against the Yankees and Royals.  Holding the Yankees scoreless in 6 innings at Yankee Stadium is no small feat.  Thompson faced the White Sox last season and allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, in 2 innings of a 13-17 defeat.

The Cubs are 12-41 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a 1.15 WHIP or less.  The White Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -115

Alek Manoah was one of the best starters in baseball last season as a rookie.  He has picked up where he left off this season, going 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in eight starts.  The Blue Jays should be much bigger favorites over the Los Angeles Angels with Manoah on the mound tonight.

Rookie Chase Silseth goes for the Angels.  He will be making his third start of the season here.  He pitched well in his first start against Oakland, pitching 6 shutout innings.  But he faced Oakland again in his next start and allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings.  The A's have one of the worst lineups in all of baseball, and this will be a big step up in class against the Blue Jays for Silseth tonight.  Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +130

I love the value we are getting on the St. Louis Cardinals today as home underdogs.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series to the hated Brewers, who are 4.5 games ahead of them in the NL Central standings.

What stood out to me was how poorly Brandon Woodruff has pitched on the road this season.  He is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.059 WHIP in four road starts.  Those four starts came against four of the worst lineups in baseball in the Marlins, Reds, Pirates and Cubs.

Conversely, St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson has been dynamite at home.  He is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Hudson pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings in his last home start against the Brewers.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -115

For starters, I like the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals had yesterday off and were able to stay home after their two-game series with Toronto.  They will be the much fresher team over the Brewers, who played Wednesday in San Diego and had the long flight to St. Louis overnight.

Adam Wainwright just continues getting the job done for the Cardinals.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  Wainwright has picked up where he left off, going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball.

Eric Lauer is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after a tremendous start this season that has come out of nowhere.  Lauer will meet his match against the Cardinals tonight.  He is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.

The Cardinals are scoring 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. left-handed starters.  St. Louis is 16-3 in Wainwright's last 19 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockies/Nationals OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 70's with winds blowout out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER as well.

These are two of the worst starters in baseball going tonight.  German Marquez is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in eight starts this season and has actually been worse on the road than he has been at home.  Marquez is 2-3 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in six career starts against Washington.

Patrick Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Nationals.  Corbin has posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 25 career starts against Colorado.  He is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Rockies as well.

Colorado is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games following three or more consecutive road games.  The Rockies are 8-1 OVER vs. teams that draw three or fewer walks per game this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Rockies last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +152

The Boston Red Sox are playing up to their potential finally.  They have won six straight while scoring at least 5 runs in all six victories.  That includes their 16-3 victory over the White Sox yesterday as +150 underdogs.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Chicago tonight.

Rich Hill has held his own this season at 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in seven starts.  Hill has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in four starts away from home.  He won't have to face CF Luis Robert, who is out due to COVID.  He should give the Red Sox a chance to win here.

Lucas Giolito has posted great numbers this year at 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in six starts.  But he has done it against a very soft schedule with four of those starts coming against the Royals, Guardians, Cubs and Tigers.  Giolito has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 7.5

The Orioles and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in six of their last seven meetings with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven games.  The OVER is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-1 in Orioles last six games overall and they have scored 6 runs or more in five of those six games.

So the Orioles are going through their best stretch of offense of the season against two of the best pitching staffs in the league in the Rays and Yankees.  They should be able to contribute to the OVER, which is key when we already have one of the best offenses in the league in the Yankees scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  

Tyler Wells is 0-3 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in four starts this season.  JP Sears will be making his first career start for the Yankees tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in all nine victories.  They have opened this series by crushing the Nationals 10-1 in Game 1 and 9-4 in Game 2.  It should be more of the same Wednesday with their big advantage on the mound.

Julio Urias is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 3-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Urias has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 (4-0 money line) with a 3.05 ERA in four career starts against them.

Erick Fedde is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in four home starts.  The Nationals are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall with all nine losses coming by 3 runs or more.

The Dodgers are 36-7 in their last 43 games vs. bad teams that win 38% or fewer of their games on the season and beating these teams by 3.3 runs per game.  Washington is 8-24 in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox +150

The Boston Red Sox are playing up to their potential finally.  They have won five straight while scoring at least 5 runs in all five victories.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against the Chicago White Sox tonight.

Dylan Cease has great stuff but is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 1-0 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts and has been a little wild.  Cease hates facing the Red Sox, going 0-0 with a 7.29 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Nick Pivetta has been dynamite in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 22 innings.  Pivetta is 0-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox, one of which came on May 7th when he pitched 6 shutout innings with 8 K's.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 7.5

Look for the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees to get their bats going today.  They combined for 10 runs yesterday and the books have set this total way too low tonight as just 7.5.  The weather looks solid and both Jordan Montgomery and Bruce Zimmerman are getting too much respect after solid starts to the season by each.

The Orioles and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in five of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six games.  The OVER is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 4-1 in Orioles last five games overall and they have scored 6 runs or more in four of those five games.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies +109

The Colorado Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound to get the back on track today.  Freeland has posted a 0.82 ERA in his two road starts this season while allowing just one earned run in 11 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts against the Pirates, allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings.

Roansy Contreras will be making his first start of the season for the Pirates today and should not be favored over Freeland here.  Colorado recently got Kris Bryant back and is fully health in its lineup and should start raking again.

The Rockies are 11-2 (+10.3 Units) in Freeland's last 13 starts vs. a NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse.  Pittsburgh is 6-28 (-20 Units) in its last 34 games vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer HR's/start.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are raking right now.  They have scored 4 runs or more in six straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight, while the struggling Blue Jays stay cold.  Toronto has scored 3 runs or fewer in five straight games.

The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound with Miles Mikolas, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Mikolas is 3-2 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in eight starts this season.

He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who is 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Berrios has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in four road starts this season.

The Cardinals are 25-9 in their last 34 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  They are coming off an 18-run outburst on Sunday.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +125

Wrong team favored here.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost five of their last six games coming in while scoring 4 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games.  The Rockies have the better starter and the better lineup in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Chad Kuhl is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Rockies as he has been their best starter.  He will face his former team here in Pittsburgh for the first time and will be highly motivated to shut them down.

J.T. Brubaker is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in three home starts.  There's no way he should be a -135 favorite over Kuhl and the Rockies tonight.

Pittsburgh allowed 18 runs to St. Louis yesterday and is 6-25 in its last 31 games after allowing 15 runs or more.  Kuhl is 9-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in night starts over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 4-18 (-14.6 Units) in Brubaker's last 22 starts vs. teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -131

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three straight and the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres by a single run each.  They'll be motivated to avoid the sweep against their hated NL West rivals, and I expect them to get the job done.

Mackenzie Gore is getting too much respect for the Padres.  He has faced such an easy schedule which is why is numbers are so good.  Gore has faced the Reds (twice), Cubs, Guardians and Braves which are four of the worst offenses in all of baseball.  This will be his toughest test to date, especially against a Giants team that is scoring 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Alex Wood continues to get it done at a high rate for the Giants, going 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in seven starts this season.  And consider Wood has faced the much tougher competition.  He is 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres as well.

The Giants are 61-29 in their last 90 games as home favorites.  San Francisco is 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-109)

Death, taxes and the Tampa Bay Rays owning the Baltimore Orioles.  The Rays are 28-3 in the last 31 meetings with 22 wins by two runs or more.  It will be more of the same today with the Rays winning in a blowout due to their big advantage on the mound, at the plate and in the bullpen.

Corey Kluber is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles.  He pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

Spenser Watkins is 0-1 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in seven starts this season for Baltimore.  Watkins is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in four career starts against the Tampa Bay.  He has lost three straight starts to the Rays by 4 runs or more while allowing 14 earned runs in 15 innings.  Take the Rays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Washington Nationals 7-0 yesterday to improve to 25-14 on the season while dropping the Nationals to 13-27.  It should be more of the same today with a blowout win in favor of the Brewers due to their big advantage on the mound.

Brandon Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game.  He is 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Woodruff has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Patrick Corbin is 0-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in eight starts this season.  The Nationals are 0-8 in Corbin's eight starts with seven of those eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Corbin is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Nationals are 6-25 in Corbin's last 31 starts as an underdog and losing by 2.5 runs per game.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -128

Kyle Wright has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in seven starts with a whopping 50 K's in 42 innings and only two homers allowed.  Wright is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Marlins, pitching 12 shutout innings with 18 K's to boot.

He'll be opposed by Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-3 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Hernandez has already allowed 10 homers in 33 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and three homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves for a 7.72 ERA as well.

Simply put, the Braves should be bigger favorites over the Marlins today considering their big advantage on the mound.  Atlanta is 23-9 in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  Miami is 3-10 in its last 13 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 65-31 in the last 96 meetings in Miami.  Atlanta is 47-21 in the last 68 meetings overall.  Roll with the Braves Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -118

The Minnesota Twins are rolling right now after a slow start to get to 22-16 this season.  Their lineup is healthy outside of Miguel Sano and they are really raking.  The same cannot be said for the Royals, who are without their best hitter in Salvador Perez and also CF Michael A. Taylor.  SS Alberto Mondesi is out as well.

It's no wonder the Royals are struggling to score runs this season.  They are scoring just 3.6 runs per game overall and 2.7 runs per game at home.  It won't get any easier for them against Devin Smeltzer, who is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals.

The Twins are 7-0 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Minnesota is 9-1 in its last 10 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Twins Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -130

The Los Angeles Dodgers just lost three out of four to the Philadelphia Phillies at home.  It's revenge time now.  The Dodgers lost as -215, -180 and -145 favorites.  Now we are getting them as a -130 favorite in the same pitching matchup where they were -180 favorites at home with Urias over Suarez.  Home-field advantage isn't worth this much.

Urias was rocked in that start, but it was an aberration.  He is one of the best starters in baseball and will be out for revenge as well.  Urias is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.581 WHIP in four home starts this season.

I like the fact that the Dodgers had yesterday off while the Phillies completed their series with the Padres yesterday, so the Dodgers will be the fresher team.  The Phillies were without Bryce Harper yesterday and have scored just three runs total in their last thee games.  They could be without Harper and Jean Segura, who are both questionable, and will be without Didi Gregorius.  The Dodgers' lineup is fully healthy and arguably the best in baseball.

The Dodgers are 72-29 in their last 101 games overall.  Take the Dodgers Friday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -123

The Cleveland Guardians will bounce back from a 5-4 loss to the Cincinnati Reds in this interleague rivalry.  I like their chances with Cal Quantrill on the mound.  He has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in six starts this season.

Quantrill will be opposed by Tyler Mahle, who is 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.  Mahle has never beaten the Guardians, going 0-2 (0-4 Money Line) with a 4.96 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Take the Guardians Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +175

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the New York Mets today.  The Cardinals are one of my favorite sleeper teams in baseball because they have a great lineup, a great bullpen and an underrated rotation that lacks big names.

Dakota Hudson is one of those underrated starters.  He is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA in seven starts this season and consistently lacks the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Hudson has won both of his career starts against the Mets.

Chris Bassitt is getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  He has been dominant on the road but vulnerable at home, going 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA in four home starts.  The Cardinals have the advantage of having already seen Bassitt once this season while the Mets have not seen Hudson yet.

The Cardinals are 19-9 in their last 28 games as underdogs.  The Mets are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.  St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 trips to New York.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on OVER 214.5

Game 1 in a playoff series is a great time to take the OVER.  Teams aren't familiar with one another yet and there tends to be a lot of defensive mistakes and turnovers on offense.  That tends to lead to easy, quick points.

I like the OVER in Game 1 of this series because the Warriors will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Warriors like to get up and down the floor, which is when they are at their best.  Only the Timberwolves and Grizzlies played at a faster tempo than the Warriors this postseason.

Two of the final three meetings in the regular season between these teams went well OVER this 214.5-point total.  They combined for 222 points at Golden State and 235 points at Dallas.  The one that stays under still saw 208 combined points and was due to a terrible shooting performance from the Warriors.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Warriors last 21 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +128

The Boston Red Sox are starting to play up to their potential.  They are 4-3 in their last seven games overall and have scored at least 6 runs in all four victories.  They should not be home underdogs to the Houston Astros tonight.

Nick Pivetta is coming off two straight dominant starts, limiting the Rangers and White Sox to just one earned run and nine base runners in 13 innings.  Pivetta has held the Astros to just three earned runs and nine base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts against them as well.

Louis Garcia is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He has allowed 5 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Red Sox.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The spot in Game 1 favors the Miami Heat.  They closed out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 on the road, so they have had the last four days off to rest and recover.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have only one day to rest after beating Milwaukee at home in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Heat have a huge home-court advantage as they are 35-12 SU at home this season, including 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They have won those nine straight home games by an average of a whopping 17.6 points per game with seven victories by double-digits.

These teams met in a very meaningful game late in the season with home-court advantage on the line and the Heat pulled the 106-98 upset as 5-point road underdogs.  Both teams were pretty much at full strength for that game.  Miami should be the better team in Game 1 tonight given the rest advantage.

Miami is 9-1 ATS following an upset win as a road underdog this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +147

The Colorado Rockies have been the most profitable home team in baseball over the past couple seasons.  They have gone 60-41 (+23.8 Units) at home over the last two seasons and are consistently home underdogs.  The value is too good to pass up today against the San Francisco Giants.

That's especially the case when I actually give the advantage on the mound to the Rockies in this one.  Chad Kuhl has been their best starter, going 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in two starts at Coors Field.

Alex Cobb has been a bit of a disappointment in his first season with the Giants.  He is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in five starts this season.  Only one of those starts came on the road when he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Mets.  Cobb allowed 3 homers in his lone career start at Coors Field.

Kuhl's teams are 12-8 (+10.3 Units) in his 20 starts over the last two seasons, including 9-3 (+10.5 Units) in his 12 night starts.  San Francisco is 2-8 after having won six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-135)

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball this season.  They are 26-9 on the season and swinging the bats very well, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games.  They have scored 38 runs in their last five games overall.

The Yankees will stay hot at the plate tonight against Baltimore's Spenser Watkins, who is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.576 WHIP in six starts this season.  Watkins has allowed 10 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Jameson Taillon is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in six starts this season for the Yankees.  Taillon has posted a 3.54 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles as well.  He should shut down a Baltimore lineup that has scored 3 runs or fewer in six consecutive games.

Baltimore is 4-24 in its last 28 games vs. a team that wins more than 62% of their games and losing by 2.0 runs per game.  New York is 7-0 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 39-13 in the last 52 meetings and 26-9 in the last 35 meetings in Baltimore.  New York is 11-0 in Taillon's last 11 starts after he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in two straight starts and winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball this season.  They are 25-9 on the seasn and swinging the bats very well, scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games.  They just scored 32 runs in a four-game series with the White Sox over the weekend.

Now the Yankees will stay hot at the plate against the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series and win this game by two runs or more.  They will be up against Kyle Bradish, who is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts for the Orioles this season.

Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in six starts this season for the Yankees.  Severino owns the Orioles, going 5-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  The Yankees are 5-0 in Severino's last five starts against Baltimore with all five wins by two runs or more.

Baltimore is 4-23 in its last 27 games vs. a team that wins more than 62% of their games and losing by 1.9 runs per game.  New York is 6-0 in its last six road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 38-13 in the last 51 meetings and 25-9 in the last 34 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -134

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be more motivated for a victory Sunday than at any other point this season thus far.  That's because they have shockingly lost four in a row as -185, -145, -215 and -180 favorites.  

That's why we are getting a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Dodgers as only -134 favorites at home Sunday.  Keep in mind the Dodgers are 41-12 in their last 53 home games, so it's rare to get them this cheap at home.  Plus add in the motivation from trying to avoid the sweep against the Phillies here.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in the majors.  He is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA in three road starts.  The Phillies are 1-6 (-6.7 units) in his seven starts this season and 16-23 (-15.1 units) in all of his starts over the past two seasons.

Philadelphia is 1-10 in Nola's last 11 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  The Phillies are losing by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Dodgers Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -107

Don't look now but the Cincinnati Reds have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall and are swinging the bats very well.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games.  They will stay hot at the plate against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.

The Reds will tee off on Zach Thompson, who is 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in five starts this season.  Luis Castillo will be making his second start back from the IL and should dominate a Pirates team he has owned.  Castillo is 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 2-15 in Thompson's last 17 starts as an underdog.  The Pirates are 24-60 in their last 84 against the NL Central, including 7-21 in their last 28 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -102

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday.  They have lost five of their last six games overall including the opener of this series with the San Francisco Giants.  The Giants will relax after winning six in a row, which has them getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now.

I believe the Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound int his one.  Dakota Hudson is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in two home starts.  Hudson is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA in three career starts against the Giants as well.

It has been nothing but a struggle for Jake Junis in the big leagues dating back to his time with the Kansas City Royals.  Junis is 30-35 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in six seasons in the big leagues.  I don't expect the Giants to have him much improved over what he was with the Royals.

The Cardinals are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  St. Louis is 9-3 in its last 12 home meetings with San Francisco.  Take the Cardinals Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have thrived without Ja Morant all season.  They were 20-5 in the regular season without Morant, and now they are 1-1 in this series without him.  They deserved to win in a 98-101 loss at Golden State as 9.5-point dogs in Game 4, but couldn't hit their free throws.

Everything went right for the Grizzlies in their impressive 134-95 rout as 4-point home underdogs at home in Game 5.  And they won't go down without a fight in Game 6 tonight.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points against the Warriors tonight.

The Grizzlies are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as favorites.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +2

Home-court advantage really hasn't mattered in this series.  The road team is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the five games.  After blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 5, I expect the Boston Celtics to come back pissed off in Game 6 to save their season.

The Celtics alongside the Miami Heat have been the two best teams in the Eastern Conference all season.  It's hard to repeat, and I just think the Bucks are way more vulnerable than they were last season, especially without Kris Middleton.  The Celtics are the more complete team and I trust them more, so this series is going to a Game 7.

The Celtics are figuring out how to score on this Milwaukee defense as they have shot 50% or better in two consecutive games.  The Bucks have shot 43.5% or worse in four of the five games in this series, and that's largely due to being up against Boston's 2nd-ranked unit in defensive efficiency.  Few teams are better equipped to guard Giannis than the Celtics with all of the length they can throw at home and stay in front of him.

Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Boston is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -105

Don't look now but the Cincinnati Reds have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall and are swinging the bats very well.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games.  They will stay hot at the plate against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.

The Reds will tee off on Mitch Keller, who is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in six starts this season.  Keller is 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.831 WHIP in nine career starts against the Reds as well.

Tyler Mahle is the ace of this Cincinnati rotation and held the Pirates to two earned runs and four base runners in 5 innings of a 7-3 win in his last start.  Mahle improved to 4-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last eight road games following an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 6-26 in its last 32 vs. a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start.  The Pirates are 24-59 in their last 83 against the NL Central, including 7-20 in their last 27 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Reds Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -135

The Los Angeles Dodgers had won six straight before surprisingly losing two out of three at Pittsburgh as -215 and -185 favorites.  Now we get them motivated and at a discount as only -135 home favorites in Game 1 of this series against the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday.

The Dodgers have the advantage on the mound behind Tyler Anderson, who is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in three starts this season.  Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four career starts against the Phillies.

Zack Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in five starts this season for the Phillies.  Wheeler is 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers as well.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.1 runs per game with a 2.77 bullpen ERA this season, while the Phillies are scoring 4.5 runs per game with a 4.11 bullpen ERA.

Philadelphia is 1-13 in its last 14 games vs. teams that draw 4 or more walks per game.  The Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 in its last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 41-10 in its last 51 home games.  Roll with the Dodgers Thursday.

15* Suns/Mavs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season.  They proved they were on another level when they won 110-80 in Game 5.  And now they are ready to close out this series with all the pressure on the Mavericks trying to stave off elimination.

Monte Williams and the Suns have the Mavericks figured out.  They rely so heavily on Luka Doncic, and they need the 'others' to make shots from 3-point range.  That's a lot to ask here with their season on the line.  The Suns can beat you several different ways, and the Mavericks have no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside.

The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as favorites.  Phoenix is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.  Take the Suns in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The Miami Heat are ready to end this streak of the home team winning every game.  They have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season.  I trust them to show up tonight and close out this series.  They have the 76ers by the balls right now and will take advantage.

You just don't know what you're going to get from the 76ers on a nightly basis.  Joel Embiid got real banged up in their 120-85 Game 5 blowout loss to the Heat.  He won't be 100%.  James Harden was a no-show and continues to falter in the biggest games.  This is their biggest game of the season, and I don't trust him one bit.  Danny Green is hit or miss as well.

Miami is 21-7 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 17-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -1.5 (-105)

The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball this season.  They have an improved lineup, a tremendous rotation and a solid bullpen.  They are 21-10 this season and take on the 10-21 Washington Nationals, who are 3-12 while hitting .194 and scoring 2.2 runs per game at home this season.

The Mets have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Tylor Megill is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in six starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in three road starts.  He faced the Nationals once already this season and pitched 5 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory at Washington on April 7th.

Aaron Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-2 with an 8.57 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in three starts this season.  He'll be up against a Mets team that is 12-5 on the road and scoring 4.8 runs per game.

The Mets are 8-0 in road games with a total set of 8 to 8.5 this season and winning by 2.7 runs per game.  Washington is 9-38 in its last 47 games as a home underdog and losing by 2.2 runs per game.  Take the Mets on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 8-1 UNDER in their nine playoff games this season.  They are scoring 105.2 points per game and allowing 99.0 points per game in the playoffs.  They miss Khris Middleton on offense, but they have been the best defense in the playoffs thus far without him.

The Celtics and Bucks had combined for just 95 points at halftime in Game 4 and were well on their way to yet another under.  But both teams caught fire in the 2nd half, and that was bound to happen eventually.  But that was an aberration, not the norm in this series and for the Bucks in general.

The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams all season.  They rank 2nd in defensive efficiency.  The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and it favors defense.  Also, the Celtics will control the tempo playing at home, which is a preferred slower pace.  The first two games in Boston saw just 190 and 195 combined points.

Normally, a total in an NBA playoff series continues to go down as the series goes on because if favors defense.  But the total was 212 in Game 3 and 213.5 in Game 4.  Now we are getting 214.5 in Game 5.  There's clearly value with the UNDER now.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Celtics last 13 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns were the best team in the NBA all season.  Nothing has changed now with the Mavericks winning both of their games at home to tie this series at 2-2.  The Suns dominated in Games 1 and 2 at home, and they will dominate in this all-important Game 5 as well.

The Mavericks got all the calls at home in their last two games.  They won't get those calls in Phoenix.  Their role players also won't play nearly as well as they did at home.  The Suns will get better efforts from their role players, and Chris Paul will be pissed off after fouling out in Game 4.  A pissed off Paul is a scary Paul.

Phoenix is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 15.8 points per game in this spot.  Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -3

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They won Games 1 and 2 with ease at home by 14 and 16 points.  Now they went on to lose both games in Philadelphia with the return of Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden nobody likes the Heat anymore.  I do, and I'll take advantage by backing them as only 3-point home favorites in Game 5 after they were 7.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the regular season.  The Heat have been tremendous at home this season at 34-12 SU.  They have been the best team in the East all season and I still think they are the best team in the East.  They are one of the most disrespected No. 1 seeds in the history of the NBA.

Miami is 18-8 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Heat are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 playoff games as favorites.  Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-112)

The Cincinnati Reds have now won three of their last four.  They are still just 4-21 in their last 25 games overall with 20 losses by two runs or more.  They are now without Mike Moustakas after already being without Joey Votto, Nick Senzel and Jonathan India.

The Brewers will come back highly motivated for a victory after losing last night to the Reds to drop their third consecutive game overall.  They had gone 15-3 in their previous 18 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more.  I'll gladly back them on the Run Line today.

Freddy Peralta is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in nine career starts against the Reds.  He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who just allowed 8 earned runs and 5 homers in 2 2/3 innings in a 5-10 loss to the Brewers on May 5th in his last start.  Green is now 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.888 WHIP in five starts this season.

Cincinnati is 3-19 vs. teams with winning records this season and losing by 3.6 runs per game on average.  Roll with the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -118

Two disappointing teams in the Philadelphia Phillies (12-16) and Seattle Mariners (13-16) square off in Game 1 of this Interleague series Monday night.  I trust the Mariners more, and I certainly believe they have a big advantage on the mound tonight.

Chris Flexen went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 31 starts last season for the Mariners.  He is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and has been even better thus far this season.  Flexen has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in five starts, including a 1.93 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three outings.

Ranger Suarez is getting way too much respect from the books today.  He is 2-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in five starts while allowing 12 earned runs, 38 base runners and 4 homers with only 15 K's in 23 1/3 innings.  The Mariners have the better bullpen as well.

Seattle is 11-2 in Flexen's last 13 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  The Mariners are a perfect 11-0 in Flexen's last 11 starts vs. teams that draw three or fewer walks per game.  The Phillies are 4-13 in their last 17 road games.  Roll with the Mariners Monday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 212

The Milwaukee Bucks are a perfect 8-0 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  They are averaging 104.9 points per game and clearly miss Khris Middleton offensively.  But they are giving up just 96.9 points per game and have been far and away the best defensive team in these playoffs.

The Celtics are scoring 107.6 points per game and giving up 103.7 points per game in the playoffs.  And keep in mind they played the Nets in the first round.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and just got Marcus Smart back from injury, the Defensive Player of the Year.

Few teams are built to slow down Giannis and the Bucks like the Celtics are.  They have Horford, Robert Williams and Grant Williams to throw at him.  They have been defending him with size and as a team.  He doesn't get many easy layups against the Celtics like he does against most teams.

Milwaukee is 17-6 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 conference semifinals games.  The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Bucks last 27 playoff games as favorites.  These teams have combined for 190, 195 and 204 points in the first three games in this series.   Bet the UNDER 212 in Game 4 Monday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (+110)

The New York Yankees are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall.  They should make easy work of the Texas Rangers today due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Nestor Cortes is 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in five starts this season for the Yankees.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 2 homers with 31 K's in 24 2/3 innings.  Cortes will shut down the Rangers today.

Jone Gray is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in three starts for the Rangers this season.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings.  He faces one of the best lineups in baseball today in the Yankees and will get rocked for a 4th consecutive start.

Texas is 7-29 in its last 36 road games after scoring 4 runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  The Rangers are 21-55 in their last 76 road games.  The Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with five wins by two runs or more.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

20* Suns/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Most NBA playoff series you see the total get lower and lower as the series progresses.  But that's not the case in this series.  Game 1 was set at 214 and Game 4 is set at 214.5.  I think there's value with the UNDER because of it.

They actually adjusted the total up in Game 2 and Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.  But that was an aberration, especially the Suns shooting 64.5% in Game 2.  These teams came back down to earth in Game 3 with a 103-94 victory by the Mavericks and just 197 combined points.

I like the UNDER in this series more in games played in Dallas.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency this season while the Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency.  Game 4 will be played in the half court with the Mavericks controlling the tempo again.

Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 UNDER following a road loss this season.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Suns last 28 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 24-5-1 in Mavericks last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Mavericks last 53 home games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound today over the Cleveland Guardians that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.  They should feast on Konnor Pilkington, who has been called up to make his first career start today.  He posted an 8.22 ERA and 1.826 WHIP in spring training and he has a 9.53 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in the minors this season.

Alek Manoah is one of the best starters in baseball.  He went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.048 WHIP as a rook last season, and now he's 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in five starts this season to pick up right where he left off.  Manoah is a legitimate Cy Young contender.

The Blue Jays are 20-5 in Manoah's 25 career starts and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game in this 25 contests.  Toronto is 22-4 in its last 26 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 15-36 in its last 51 games as a home underdog.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -120 (Game 2)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-20 in their last 21 games overall with 19 of those 20 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

That's why I'm even willing to lay juice on the road with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are just 10-14 this season but a much better team than the Reds right now.  Mitch Keller has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts against Cincinnati.  Keller has posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts despite facing the Brewers (twice) and Padres.

I like that the Pirates are the more rested, fresher team.  They have played just two games over the past five days.  That sets them up well to handle this double-header much better than the short-handed Reds.  Roll with the Pirates in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have played in two very low-scoring games in the first two games of this series.  They combined for 190 points in Game 1 and 195 points in Game 2.  Now the total has still been set too high at 213 points in Game 3.

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another.  That makes points harder to come by and favors defense.  Add to that the fact that both teams have had three days off in between games to get ready for Game 3, and it's safe to say they know each other inside and out.

It's also worth noting that both teams shot pretty well in Game 2 and they still only combined for 195 points.  Boston shot 47.5% from the field and made 20-of-43 (46.5%) from 3-point range, setting a franchise record for 3's made in a playoff game.  The Bucks shot 46.6% as a team.  This game was played at a snail's pace with both teams attempting 80 shots or fewer.  That should be the case again in Game 3.  The Celtics also get a Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to help them out on that end.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks' seven playoff games this season.  They are allowing just 94.9 points per game and have been the best team in the playoffs defensively.  They are scoring just 105.1 points per game, so it's not like they are lighting it up on offense, and they certainly miss Khris Middleton's scoring.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have been even better when Robert Williams is on the floor, one of the most underrated players in the league due to what he can do defensively.  He stopped Giannis at the rim numerous times in Game 3, and there's not many players who can do that.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -114 (Game 1)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-20 in their last 21 games overall with 19 of those 20 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

That's why I'm even willing to lay juice on the road with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are just 10-14 this season but a much better team than the Reds right now.  J.T. Brubaker has allowed one earned run exactly in three of his last four starts against the Reds and should shut them down tonight.

I like that the Pirates are the more rested, fresher team.  They have played just two games over the past five days and will be champing at the bit to get back on the diamond for Game 1 of this series today.  Take the Pirates in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Suns/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode in Game 3 at home tonight.  This is the series, and I expect their best effort of it thus far.  That should be enough to win this game outright against the Phoenix Suns, who lost two games to the Pelicans last series.

The Suns aren't going to shoot as good on the road as they did at home in the first two games of this series.  They shot 50.5% in Game 1 and won by 7, then shot a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2 including 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They are coming off basically a perfect game, and that's going to be hard to follow up.

The Mavericks will be the team playing with more intensity tonight, while the Suns relax a little knowing they are up 2-0 in this series and in good shape.  And the atmosphere will be much more difficult for them to handle in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.  Jason Kidd has done a tremendous job of coaching this season, and I expect him to make the proper adjustments for Game 3 tonight to slow down this Phoenix offense.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  It is winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Mavs UNDER 220.5

There is clearly value with the UNDER in Game 3 tonight when you consider the totals from the first two games of this series.  They were set at 214 for Game 1 and 217 for Game 2.  Now we have a total of 220.5 for Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.

We'll take advantage of this value and back the UNDER.  The Suns aren't going to shoot as well as they have in Phoenix, making 50.5% in Game 1 and then a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2.  The Mavericks probably can't be expected to shoot as well from 3-point range as they have either.

I like the UNDER more in games played in Dallas in this series.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  They are also 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency and play much slower on the road.  This will be more of a half court game tonight folks.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more.  The UNDER is 17-8-2 in Suns last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 23-5-1 in Mavericks last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-108)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-19 in their last 20 games overall with 18 of those 19 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel and Tyler Naquin due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall with 10 wins by two runs or more.  They'll go with Adrian Houser, who is 2-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 0.77 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in two home starts.

He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in four starts this season.  Greene has allowed 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 29 base runners in 18 innings pitched.  He'll get rocked again today.

Milwaukee is 15-0 in its last 15 games vs. poor power teams that average 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  It is winning by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks showed they could play with the Suns in Game 1 when they lost 114-121 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they come back as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2 and I like the value we are getting with them in what has to feel like a must-win for them.

We saw the Suns beat the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1 and come back and lost 114-125 in Game 2 last series.  I think they will be vulnerable tonight after winning Game 1.  I expect the Mavericks to be the team playing with more intensity being down in this series, and that should be enough to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  That fact alone shows you there's value with the Mavericks catching 6.5 points tonight as the Suns have had a hard time putting them away, and the Mavericks simply have no quit in them.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a game where it was outrebounded by 15 or more this season.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 16.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -131

The New York Yankees are 11-0 in their last 11 games overall.  They will be motivated to keep this winning streak going, and I like their chances tonight with a massive advantage on the mound over the Toronto Blue Jays.

Nestor Cortes has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with a whopping 28 K's.  Cortes has posted a 1.74 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in two career starts against the Blue Jays, one of which came earlier this season.

Yusei Kikuchi is one of the weak links in this Toronto rotation.  He is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four starts this season and averaging just 3.7 innings per start.  Kikuchi is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in five career starts against the Yankees.  One of those came opposite Cortes on April 12th earlier this season when he allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-0 defeat.

New York is 7-1 in its last eight trips to Toronto.  Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays -120

The Tampa Bay Rays are far and away the better team than the Oakland A's and should be bigger favorites tonight.  But we are getting the Rays at a discount in this series after losing three out of four at home to the A's from April 11-14 as -220, -210 and -180 favorites.

I cashed the Rays as a free pick Monday at -154, and I cashed them Tuesday as a premium pick as -119 favorites.  I'm back on them in Game 3 today as -120 favorites.  The Rays are hitting the ball much better on the road this season, scoring 5.6 runs per game.  The A's are 4-8 at home and hitting .199 and scoring 3.0 runs per game as a team.  They have almost zero home-field advantage.

Corey Kluber has been solid at his new home in Tampa at 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in four starts.  He'll be opposed by Frankie Montas, who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five starts this season.  Kluber has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in eight career starts against the A's.

Tampa Bay is 45-18 in its last 63 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The A's are 0-5 in their last five home games.  The Rays are playing up to their potentially finally after a slow start to the season, and we're getting them at a great value currently.  Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -119

The Tampa Bay Rays are far and away the better team than the Oakland A's and should be bigger favorites tonight.  But we are getting the Rays at a discount in this series after losing three out of four at home to the A's from April 11-14 as -220, -210 and -180 favorites.

I cashed the Rays as a free pick yesterday at -154, and I'm definitely going to back them as a premium pick at -119 today.  The Rays are hitting the ball much better on the road this season, scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The A's are 4-7 at home and hitting .192 while scoring just 2.6 runs per game as a team.  They have almost zero home-field advantage.

Paul Blackburn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after a shocking 3-0 start with a 1.35 ERA and 0.800 WHIP to boot.  But he's going to come back down to reality today.  Keep in mind Blackburn is still 9-11 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.399 WHIP across 158 innings in the big leagues, so this start is an aberration.

The Rays are 14-3 in Ryan Yarbrough's last 17 night starts.  Tampa Bay is 44-18 in its last 62 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The A's are 0-4 in their last four home games.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies nearly pulled the upset over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 despite not playing anywhere near their best game.  They shot just 41-of-95 (43.2%) from the field while the Warriors shot 45-of-93 (48.4%).  They only lost that game 116-117 and had a chance to win at the buzzer.

Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.  This has been a very resilient bunch all season.  In fact, the Grizzlies haven't lost more than two in a row since December, which just goes to show how resilient they are.  Memphis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games following a loss.

The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+100)

Death, taxes and fade the Reds on the Run Line.  The Reds are just 1-17 in their last 18 games overall with 16 of those 17 losses coming by two runs or more.  And we're getting the red hot Brewers at even money on the Run Line today.

The Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall with eight wins by two runs or more.  Brandon Woodruff is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.636 WHIP in two home starts this season.  Woodruff is also 1-0 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with 22 K's.

Tyler Mahle is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against the Brewers, including 1-1 with a 6.04 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing 17 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings.  Mahle is off to a rough start this season at 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in five starts, which is concerning considering he was supposed to be their ace.

The Brewers are 31-9 in Woodruff's last 40 starts during the first half of the season.  Milwaukee is 13-0 in its last 13 games vs. terrible power teams that average 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  They are winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +111

I like the fact that the Red Sox had yesterday off while the Angels had to play the White Sox Monday.  The Red Sox will be the fresher team, and they will be highly motivated for a victory coming off a brutal 10-game road trip that included two losses to the Orioles to cap it off.

Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Red Sox and 'sell high' on the Angels, who are now road favorites after winning seven of their last nine games overall.  Noah Syndergaard has posted solid numbers this season, but he is getting way too much respect from the books.

Michael Wacha's hot start is being overlooked by the books.  Wacha is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and 10 hits in 20 1/3 innings.  I expect him to continue his success against the Angels tonight.

Plays on home teams (Boston) - with a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs is 50-18 (73.5%, +33.3 Units) over the last five seasons.  Boston is 23-6 in its last 29 home games following three consecutive division games.  Roll with the Red Sox Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -4

The Boston Celtics shot 28-of-84 (33.3%) in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  There was clearly a rust factor for them after sweeping the Nets and being off since April 25th.  Look for them to be much sharper on offense, and for them to bring that same defensive intensity they have played with all season.

The Celtics held the Bucks to 37-of-90 (41.1%) shooting and just 101 points in Game 1.  If they can do that again in Game 2, they are going to win and cover with ease.  And that's what I expect to see happen here as they guard the Bucks as well as anyone in the NBA, and they get going offensively.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 9.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

The Dallas Mavericks are built for UNDERS.  They rank 30th in the NBA in pace this season at just 97.5 possessions per game.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency as well.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency, which has been the key to all their success this season.

Both the Mavericks and Suns have had three full days to prepare for one another.  I think that is going to favor the defenses.  Both teams have tremendous wing defenders and points will be much harder to come by for both teams than they were in the first round against the Jazz and Pelicans.

Phoenix and Dallas played three times in the regular season and we saw 203, 216 and 210 combined points in those three meetings.  I think there's value with the UNDER 215 in Game 1 of this series based off those results, especially with defensive intensity turned up a notch in the playoffs.

Dallas is 18-4 UNDER in its last 22 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Mavericks last 64 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Suns last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Seattle Mariners are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They have a great lineup that is producing 4.6 runs per game thus far, a rotation that doesn't get the credit it deserves, and a bullpen that has posted a 2.94 ERA in 79 2/3 innings pitched this season.

The Houston Astros are just 11-11 this season and hitting .215 and scoring 3.7 runs per game as a team.  Marco Gonzalez should shut them down as he has posted a 3.86 ERA in four starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi, who is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four starts for the Astros this season.

We saw this exact same matchup in Seattle on April 15th.  Gonzalez allowed just one earned run and four base runners in 7 innings, while Odorizzi gave up four earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 1/3 innings.  The Mariners won that game 11-1, and it should be more of the same here.

Gonzalez is now 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts against the Astros, allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings.  Seattle is a very profitable 36-33 (+13.5 Units) in Gonzalez's 69 career starts as an underdog of +100 or higher.  Take the Mariners Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have the two best lineups in baseball.  That will be on display tonight in perfect hitting conditions inside the dome in Toronto as these offenses should light up these two starting pitchers.

The Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have gone 9-0 in their last nine games while putting up an average of 7.4 runs per game during this winning streak.  The OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games overall as well.

The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.  Their offense has not lived up to its potential thus far and its going to be scary when it does.  Now that we're a month into the season, the Blue Jays should start raking like they're capable of.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game at home this season.

Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 5.78 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 12 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221.5

This is a pretty quick turnaround for this series.  The Grizzlies only had one day off in between games and the Warriors had three days off since taking care of the Nuggets.  These teams aren't familiar with one another yet, and I think that favors the offenses in Game 1 today.

After all, these are the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors averaged 118 points per game in their five-game series with the Nuggets and have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are showing how dangerous they can be when healthy offensively.

The Grizzlies averaged 114.7 points per game in their six-game series with the Timberwolves.  We saw a very high-scoring Game 1 in that series that saw 247 combined points and went well OVER the total.  The Warriors combined for 230 points with the Nuggets in Game 1 last series and went OVER the number.

The OVER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 playoff games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games overall.  This 221.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 8-0 in their last eight games overall and scoring 7.6 runs per game during this winning streak.  They have scored at least 10 runs in four of their last six games and have won seven of those eight games by 3 runs or more.

The Kansas City Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 3 runs or more.  Daniel Lynch has posted some decent numbers this season, but the Yankees have feasted on left-handed starters.  They are 6-1 against southpaws and scoring 5.4 runs per game.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound behind Luis Severino, who is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in four starts this season with 19 K's in 19 innings.  The Yankees are 4-0 in Severino's four starts with all four wins coming by 2 runs or more.

New York is 101-44 in the last 145 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +117

I love the spot for the Seattle Mariners today.  They are the better team in this matchup with the Miami Marlins, but that hasn't shown of late.  They have lost four straight while the Marlins have won seven straight.  That's why we are getting the Mariners as underdogs when we shouldn't be.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Mariners as they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and put and end to this losing streak.  I like their chances with the underrated Logan Gilbert on the mound today.

Gilbert is 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed just one earned run and 19 base runners with 22 K's in 22 1/3 innings this season.  He is quietly becoming one of the best starters in baseball and living up to his ace potential this season.

The Mariners are 10-0 in Gilbert's last 10 starts after he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Seattle is 13-2 in Gilbert's last 15 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105)

The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and have scored at least 7 runs in five consecutive games.  It should be more of the same against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.

The Pirates are just 4-8 in their last 12 games overall and have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of those 12 games.  They won't be getting much off Joe Musgrove, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Padres are 4-0 in Musgrove's four starts with all four wins by 3 runs or more.

The Padres will stay hot at the plate against Mitch Keller, who is 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Keller's four starts with all four losses by 2 runs or more.  Keller is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego as well.  Take the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall and scoring 8.3 runs per game during this winning streak.  They have scored at least 10 runs in four of their last five games.

Now they have their sights set on Carlos Hernandez of the Royals.  Hernandez is 0-0 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings with only 5 K's.

Meanwhile, the Yankees send ace Gerrit Cole to the mound.  He is coming off a dominant start against the Guardians in which he pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings with 9 K's.  Cole is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -154

The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and have scored at least 7 runs in four consecutive games.  It should be more of the same against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.

The Pirates are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of those 11 games.  They won't get much off Sean Manaea, who is 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.538 WHIP in two road starts.

He'll be opposed by J.T. Brubaker, who is 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in four starts this season for the Pirates.  Brubaker allowed 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-4 defeat to the Padres in his lone career start against them last season.

The Pirates are 1-14 in Brubaker's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  San Diego is 7-0 in its last seven games as a favorite.  Roll with the Padres Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +105

The Seattle Mariners are highly motivated for a victory Saturday after losing three straight games coming in.  The Miami Marlins are starting to get too much respect from the books after winning six consecutive games coming in.

Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last season and has picked up where he left off.  He is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in four starts this season and was a great get for the Mariners to give them an ace at the top of their rotation.

Ray is much better than Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.256 WHIP this season and averaging only 4.8 innings per start.  Luzardo is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in one career start against Seattle, while Ray is 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in eight career starts against Miami.

The Marlins are 4-19 in their last 23 interleague games.  Miami is 2-15 in its last 17 games vs. AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Mariners Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 229

The longer a series goes on the more teams become familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That has proven to be the case in this series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves as well.

After combining for 247 points in Game 1, these teams have combined for 220 in Game 2, 199 in Game 3, 237 in Game 4 and 220 in Game 5.  And both teams shot lights out from 3 in that 237-point effort in Game 4 as the Timberwolves were 18-of-36 (50%) and the Grizzlies were 15-of-32 (46.9%).  That's unlikely to happen again.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Minnesota) - a good offensive team that scores 114-118 PPG against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 PPG) after 42-plus games following a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 (78%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-110)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 6-0 in their last six games overall while scoring an average of 7.7 runs per game.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.

The Yankees will tee off on Kris Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 14.14 ERA and 3.000 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 7 innings.  Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes will shut down the Royals.  Cortes is 0-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 0.639 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 15 2/3 innings with a whopping 25 K's.

The Royals are hitting .206 and scoring 2.6 runs per game at home this season.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105)

The San Diego Padres are crushing the ball right now.  They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with six victories by two runs or more.  I'll gladly back them on the Run Line today against the Pittsburgh Pirates with their big advantage on the mound and at the plate.

The Pirates have scored 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall while going 3-7 in those 10 games with six losses by two runs or more.  Zach Thompson has been brutal for the Pirates this season, going 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.700 WHIP in three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 27 base runners in 10 innings.

Thompson has never beaten the Padres, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two career starts against them, which resulted in losses by 3 and 5 runs.  He'll be opposed by Yu Darvish, who is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in eight career starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 4-21 in their last 25 games following a game where their bullpen blew a save.  They are losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Padres are 6-0 in their last six games as favorites.  Take the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  It was more of the same in Game 5 with the Mavs winning 102-77 for just 179 combined points.  This 209.5-point total for Game 6 has been set way too high.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Donovan Mitchell was noticeably limping as he got hurt late in Game 5.  He is expected to play but won't be 100%, and that's going to significantly hamper the Jazz offensively.  Take the UNDER in game 6 Thursday.

15* Suns/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  

I took advantage of an inflated total in Game 5 and cashed the UNDER 215.5 in a game that saw 209 combined points.  Now I'm backing on the UNDER 214.5 for many of the same reasons in Game 6.  The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by.  Points are definitely harder for the Suns to come by without Devin Booker.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New Orleans) - a poor defensive team that allows 46% shooting or higher, after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER In Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Braves UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight on this 8.5-run total between the Cubs and Braves.  These starters are both too good and these lineups aren't exactly clicking this season, especially the Braves who are hitting .229 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.  Chicago's offensive numbers are inflated due to one outlier in a 21-0 win over the Pirates.

Drew Smyly has been solid this season for the Cubs at 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in three starts.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Wright, who has been as impressive as any starter in baseball this season.  Wright is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 17 innings with a whopping 26 K's to boot.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Cubs last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Braves last 10 games during Game 3 of a series.  The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Braves last 17 home games.  The UNDER is 32-15-4 in Braves last 51 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto ML +105

All the pressure is on Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, James Harden and company.  The 76ers are on the verge of blowing a 3-0 series lead, and if anyone could do it it's Doc.  He is 3-11 in his last 14 close out games including 1-7 in his last eight.  You can tell he's feeling the pressure based off his press conferences, trying to defend himself at all costs.

Realistically, the Raptors should be up 3-2 in this series.  They lost at home in Game 3 despite never trailing in regulation.  They came back with a 110-102 home victory in Game 4 and a 103-88 upset road win in Game 5.  They have all the momentum right now and feel like they are playing on house money.

The loss of Fred VanVleet isn't as big as it's made out to be.  The Raptors are now much longer on the perimeter which is causing the 76ers problems on offense, averaging just 95 points per game in their last two.  Joel Embiid is clearly bothered by his thumb injury, and James Harden just can't be trusted in big games.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +150

It's safe to say the Cleveland Guardians will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight, including the first three games of this series to the Angels.  Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Guardians as they will be motivated to avoid the sweep.

Cal Quantrill has been solid for the Guardians this season at 1-0 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in three starts.  Quantrill faced the Angels last season and shut them out in 7 innings with 9 K's in a 3-0 victory.

Reid Detmers is clearly the weakest link in this Los Angeles rotation.  Detmers is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three starts this season.  He faced the Guardians once last season, allowing 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 defeat.

The Guardians are 36-17 in their last 53 during Game 4 of a series.  Cleveland is 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first three games of a series.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217.5

The Bulls are broken on offense in this series.  They have scored 81, 86 and 95 points in their three losses.  Now they will be without both Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso tonight.  Both of these guys are great at penetrating and finding open teammates, and they will be even more lost on offense without them tonight.

The Bucks aren't exactly blowing the doors off of the Bulls on offense, either.  They are averaging just 108.3 points per game in this series.  They are without Khris Middleton, and the Bulls have done a pretty good job of defending in this series.  Giannis will continue to get his but they have held mostly everyone else in check.

Milwaukee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following a blowout road win by 20 points or more.  Chicago is 16-4 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  The UNDER is 4-0 in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Nationals UNDER 7.5

Two terrible offenses square off tonight when the Miami Marlins continue their series with the Washington Nationals.  The Marlins are hitting .242 and scoring 4.0 runs per game this season, including .232 and 3.7 on the road.  The Nationals are hitting .224 and scoring 3.4 runs per game this season, including .196 and 2.3 at home.

Pablo Lopez is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 0.750 WHIp in three starts this season while allowing just one earned run and 13 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  Lopez is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last four starts against the Nationals while allowing only 4 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.

Erick Fedde owns the Marlins, going 4-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He has allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings in his last six starts against them.

Washington is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in three consecutive games.  There will be 13 MPH winds blowing in from left-center and temps in the 40's for this game tonight to help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -163

The Cincinnati Reds are 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.  They have scored 2 runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games and are hitting just .189 and scoring 297 runs per game this season.  The Padres will make easy work of them tonight.

Mackenzie Gore is one of the top prospects for the Padres and has been impressive this season.  Gore is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in two starts.  One of those starts came against the Reds last time out when he shut them out in 5 innings with 7 K's of a 6-0 victory.

Vladimir Gutierrez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has never beaten the Padres, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three career starts against them.  One of those starts came opposite Gore in his last outing as he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of that 6-0 defeat.

Not only are the Reds 1-12 in their last 13 games overall, but all 12 losses have come by two runs or more.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The OVER has hit in three consecutive games now, which is why the books haven't adjusted this total as low as it should be tonight.  We'll take advantage and cash in the UNDER.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  I have a hard time believing we're gonna get another flurry of points to send this one over the number for a third consecutive game.

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  I fully expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the entire series as we easily cash this UNDER 215.5 in Game 5.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 and this will become a half court game with points at a premium.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6

I was on the Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to the Timberwolves.  They delivered with a 124-96 blowout victory.  I'm definitely backing the Grizzlies again here in Game 5 as only 6-point home favorites after dropping Game 4 118-119 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough for the spot for the Grizzlies here.

The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4 and still only won by a single point.  They shot 47.3% from the field including 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range.  Not to mention, they made a whopping 31 free throws.  They played the perfect game at home in Game 4, but they will be far from perfect on the road in Game 5.

Memphis is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Memphis is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 233

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 heading into Game 5.  I expect points to be at a premium and for this game to be played at the slowest pace of the entire series thus far.

These teams went well UNDER the number in Games 2 and 3.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 199 points in Game 3.  Game 4 was well on the way to another UNDER until a flurry of points in the final minutes.  They had combined for just 218 points with 2:45 to play, but combined for 19 points in that final 2:45 to go over the number and finish with 237 combined points.

Now the books have set the number even higher for Game 5 at 233 points and I think there's tremendous value with the UNDER.  Both teams shot lights out in Game 4 and it's unlikely to happen again.  The Grizzlies shot 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-points range and the Timberwolves shot 18-of-36 (50%) from distance, yet they still only managed 237 combined points.  Just a slight drop in shooting for both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER with ease.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Memphis) - after covering two of their last three ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 71-32 (68.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

The Colorado Rockies are one of the most improved teams in MLB this season.  They are 10-6 while scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season.  They should not be this big of underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who are struggling at 7-10 this season.

I would argue the Rockies have the advantage on the mound tonight.  German Marquez is the ace of their rotation and has owned the Phillies.  Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia.

Zach Eflin is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  That's especially the case when you consider Eflin is 1-3 with a 7.18 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in five career starts against the Rockies.

The Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall while the Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 games overall.  Colorado is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Take the Rockies Tuesday.