Winning Sports Picks

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +8.5

Drake is overvalued after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  This is a tough spot for Drake after having their four-game winning streak snapped in a 83-80 (2 OT) loss at Missouri State on Wednesday.  That game will have taken a lot out of them, and now they only have two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.

The spot really favors the Panthers, who have had the last three days off after a 70-63 home win over Evansville.  The Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now after playing a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming to Indiana State, which is the best team in the conference.

Northern Iowa has actually played its best basketball on the road during this stretch going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS winning by 13 at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point favorites, at Missouri State by 2 as 1.5-point dogs, at Murray State by 10 as 1.5-point dogs and at Belmont by 11 as 2-point favorites.  The Panthers took Drake to OT on the road as identical 8.5-point dogs last season as well.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is actually 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off two consecutive home games.  The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -2.5

Dayton is the best team in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 16-2 SU & 14-4 ATS this season including 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play outscoring opponents by 13.0 points per game in Atlantic 10 action.

Now the Flyers prove they are the class of the Atlantic 10 by going on the road and making easy work of a Richmond team that is also 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play, but only winning by 5.8 points per game.  The Spiders have simply been fortunate in close games, but their luck runs out today agains the superior Flyers.

Dayton ranks 14th in adjusted offense and 69th in adjusted defense this season while facing the 87th-ranked schedule in the country.  Richmond ranks 139th in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted defense against the 216th-ranked schedule.  This will be the Spiders' toughest test since an 11-point loss to Florida on a neutral.

Dayton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Bet Dayton Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I love the spot for Kentucky tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season getting upset at South Carolina by 17 as 5.5-point favorites.  They will bounce back in a big way tonight and won't be taking this dreadful Arkansas team lightly as a result.

The Razorbacks are broken.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and getting blown out on the regular.  They lost by 32 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Georgia, by 22 at Florida, by 13 at home to South Carolina and by 26 at Ole Miss.  I think Eric Musselman has lost this team already, and they may not have their best player in Tramon Mark (17.8 PPG), who is questionable after sitting out last game.

Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Kentucky is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +15.5

Jerry Stackhouse has a way of getting his teams to improve as the season goes on.  The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only lost by 3 to Alabama as 12.5-point dogs and by 2 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs during this stretch.

Now the Commodores are licking their chops at the opportunity to beat their hated in-state rivals in Tennessee.  They have had the last week off to rest and get ready for this game, and they always take it more seriously than the Volunteers do.  That's evident by the fact that the Commodores are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning outright as 10-point home dogs, losing by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and losing by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs.

Tennessee has only played four true road games all season going 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS in those games.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three true road games losing by 8 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs, getting upset at Mississippi State by 5 as 2-point favorites and only beating Georgia by 6 as 7.5-point favorites after needing a big 2nd half comeback.  This is a letdown spot for them as well coming off two consecutive big home wins over Florida and Alabama.

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Volunteers are 0-6 ATS in all games away from home vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon +4

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed a comeback to beat UCLA at home by 6 as 18-point favorites and only beat a depleted USC team by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.

But most concerning is how poorly Arizona has played on the road in Pac-12 play.  The Wildcats are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Pac-12 road games losing by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, losing by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and losing by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Now Arizona will face its toughest road test of the season at Oregon, which is one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now.  The Ducks are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with both losses coming on the road to Utah (by 3) and Colorado.

The Ducks are a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12.  They are coming off a 19-point home win over Arizona State on Thursday and should still be very fresh for this game against Arizona, which will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days and expended a lot of energy in that 3-point loss at Oregon State Thursday.

Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after losing two its last three games.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Oregon upset Arizona 87-68 as identical 4-point home dogs last season.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Valparaiso +3.5

Valparaiso is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and playing its best basketball of the season.  But the Beacons continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage today and back them as 3.5-point home dogs to Missouri State.

This is a terrible spot for Missouri State.  The Bears are coming off an 83-80 (2 OT) upset home win over Drake as 7-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now they are tired, fat and happy and won't want anything to do with this game against Valpo on Saturday.

That win against Drake pretty much came out of nowhere because the Bears had been rotten prior to that.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games including a 26-point loss at Bradley, a 24-point home loss to Murray State, a 22-point loss at Indiana State and a 9-point home loss to Illinois State.

Valpo is 7-0 ATS after three straight games forcing their opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Missouri State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 or more points.  The Beacons are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Valpo Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +8

Wyoming has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU at home this season including an upset win over Nevada as 7-point dogs in their most recent home game.  That's the same Nevada team that just beat Colorado State 77-64 last time out.

Wyoming should not be catching 8 points at home to a Colorado State team that has been grossly overvalued since it turned conference season.  The Cowboys are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The two wins came in OT at home against Air Force as 15.5-point favorites and by 3 over UNLV at home as 7-point favorites.  They lost all three of their true road games during this stretch.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Colorado State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS off a conference game this season.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears today.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Kansas State and Texas by a combined 6 points.  They lost in OT to K-State and at the buzzer to Texas.  It's safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory today.

Now Baylor has had the last week off to rest and get better and prepare to beat TCU.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and will get back on track in blowout fashion.  They face a Horned Frogs team that will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and is coming off a fortunate 74-69 road win at lowly Oklahoma State.  They had lost their two previous games to Cincinnati on the road and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this season.  Scott Drew will have the Bears ready for one of their best performances of the season today.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Clemson/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

I love the spot for Clemson.  They last played on Saturday in a 78-67 road win at Florida State.  That means they have had an entire week off to rest and prepare to beat Duke.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season.

Duke is not playing well right now.  The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU by 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and consistently getting too much respect.  They only beat Georgia Tech by 5 as 17.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Pitt by 4 as 12-point home favorites and won by 14 at Louisville as 14-point favorites.  Duke played on Tuesday and only had three days to get ready for Clemson.

Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after going over the total in three consecutive games.  Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Knicks UNDER 217

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 11 of their last 13 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including eight of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 12-1 in Knicks last 13 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in10 of those 13 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 11th in defensive rating, 22nd in offensive rating and 28th in pace.  So this is a matchup between two of the four slowest teams in the NBA from a pace perspective.

Each of the last eight meetings between New York and Miami have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* WAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Arlington +6.5

This is a big letdown spot for Grand Canyon (18-2).  The Antelopes are coming off a 53-51 win at Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  That followed up an upset loss at Seattle on Saturday.  Now the Antelopes will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and their 2nd road game in 3 days.

UT-Arlington has a massive rest advantage after last playing at Abilene Christian on Saturday.  That means the Mavericks have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Grand Canyon.  They want revenge from a 69-76 road loss at Grand Canyon on December 2nd in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Antelopes on the road, and now they should not be catching 6.5 points at home in the rematch given their rest advantage.

Arlington is 9-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Arlington is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in all games this season and have been consistently undervalued.  Bet UT-Arlington Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Oklahoma UNDER 141.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 209th in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.  They face another dead nuts UNDER team today in Texas Tech, which ranks 285th in adjusted tempo and 60th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between Texas Tech and Oklahoma with 137 or fewer combined points in all 11 meetings.  That would make for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total today.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But now they are laying 7.5-point on the road to Florida State after being 3-point underdogs at Clemson.  That just shows you how big of an adjustment they have made on UNC, and it's too big.

Florida State wants revenge from a 78-70 road loss at North Carolina as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 2nd.  But that was a bad FSU team at the time, and this is a much improved team under Leonard Hamilton now.  The Seminoles are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse all by 9 points or more.  But they aren't getting the kind of respect that UNC is.

The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in ACC play this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +6.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for South Carolina.  They are coming off their huge upset win over Kentucky at home, and now they have an even bigger game on deck against Tennessee on Tuesday.  That makes this a sandwich spot with Missouri coming to town today.

Missouri is winless in SEC play and highly motivated for that first conference victory.  The Tigers will be out for revenge from a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina on January 13th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago today.  The Tigers had a big effort last time out losing by just 6 as 11.5-point underdogs at Texas A&M.  They will give another big effort today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the outright upset given the terrible spot for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game after 15-plus games.  Lamont Paris is 10-24 ATS in Saturday home games as a head coach.  Dennis Gates is 28-11 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Stanford/California FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 149

Stanford is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 86th in adjusted tempo, 66th in adjusted offense and 129th in adjusted defense.  California is also an OVER team ranking in the middle of the pack in adjusted tempo, 84th in adjusted offense and 177th in adjusted defense.

Stanford is 13-5 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Stanford's last eight games overall with 149 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  Each of their last five games have seen 152 or more combined points, so this is a pretty low total for a game involving Stanford right now.

The OVER is 13-6 in California's 19 games this season and they are combining for an average of 152.2 points per game this season.  California and its opponents have combined for at least 152 points in four consecutive games coming into this one.

California is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a win by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cal's six games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Spurs OVER 230.5

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in three of their last four games overall.  That includes a 137-131 win at Houston that saw 268 combined points last time out.

The OVER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall with 244 or more combined points in all four games.  The Blazers and Spurs are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 240 or more combined points in four of those five.  That includes 262 combined points in their most recent meeting on December 29th.

The OVER is 15-5 in San Antonio's 20 home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER 213

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Magic tonight.

That's especially the case when you consider their opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are also a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to all their injuries.  They are without Morant, Smart, Bane and several others and having to rely on defense to be competitive.

The UNDER is 9-5 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  The Grizzlies have scored 108 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Magic rank 5th in defensive rating while the Grizzlies rank 10th.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Magic rank 24th.

Memphis is 14-5 UNDER at home this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-4 UNDER after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Orlando is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Magic are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 road games following a home loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 240.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER rank ranking 4th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.  The Pelicans are 8th in offensive rating and both teams are really scoring at a high level right now.

The Thunder are scoring 121.9 points per game this season.  The Pelicans are scoring 117.5 points per game and that number would be even higher if they were healthy all season.  Well, they are healthy right now and we're seeing what they are capable of scoring 127.4 points per game in their last eight games.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 8-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116-plus points per game this season.  We are seeing an average of 252.9 combined points per game in these games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Both Michigan State and Wisconsin are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  Wisconsin ranks 326th in adjusted tempo while Michigan State ranks 278th in adjusted tempo.

It should come as no surprise that Michigan State and Wisconsin have combined for 134 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 137 or fewer in 11 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 137.5-point total.

They combined for 127 points in their first meeting this season and both teams actually shot pretty well in that game with both at 45.1% including a combined 19-of-21 from the FT line and 16 made 3-pointers.  We have a lot of room to spare with this 137.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +3.5

I like the spot for Long Beach State tonight having a full week off last playing on January 18th to get ready for UC-Irvine.  Meanwhile, the Anteaters will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and should not be favored on the road over the Beach tonight.

Long Beach State has only played six home games all season and is 5-1 SU at home.  That includes 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two conference home games beating Hawaii by 8 as 3-point favorites and Riverside by 8 as 7-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Long Beach State won by 5 as a PK and by 6 as 5.5-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Irvine.  Bet Long Beach State Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5

The New York Knicks are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

Now I fully expect the Knicks to upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets at home tonight.  The Nuggets are 14-10 SU but 8-15-1 ATS on the road this season and have been vulnerable on the highway.  The Knicks are 14-5 SU & 11-7-1 ATS at home this season.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Knicks UNDER 222.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 11-1 in Knicks last 12 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine of those 12 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 28th in pace and 12th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Nuggets last three games overall combining for 202 points with the Celtics, 217 with the Wizards and 223 with the Pacers.  The Wizards and Pacers are dead nuts over teams playing at the two fastest paces in the entire NBA as well.

Denver is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games after playing three consecutive non-conference games this season.  The Nuggets are 14-6 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 224.5

The Miami Heat are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games and 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, and 99 or fewer in five of those seven.  They could be without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kevin Love tonight, and they are having chemistry issues trying to incorporate Terry Rozier Jr.

Miami ranks 29th in pace, 22nd in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating.  The Heat have been getting after it defensively holding their last seven opponents to an average of just 102.6 points per game.  They can hold the Boston Celtics in check tonight.

The Celtics are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was the 229 against a dead nuts over team in the Mavericks when the total was 240.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating and 17th in pace.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Miami and Boston with 215 combined points or fewer in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Kentucky -3.5

Northern Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Norse are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two losses coming on the road at Cleveland State by 3 as 4.5-point dogs and at Oakland by 5 as 6-point dogs.  

The Norse are coming off a pair of blowout home wins over quality Horizon League teams.  They beat Milwaukee 90-72 as 2-point favorites and Green Bay 74-52 as 6-point favorites to improve to 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  Now the Norse want revenge from a 73-60 loss at IPFW on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  They shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and 11-of-21 (54.2%) from the FT line in that loss and can only improve.

IPFW is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall with three upset losses including a very bad 6-point home loss to IUPUI as 16.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Youngstown State, by 3 at Robert Morris and by 7 at Cleveland State in their last three road games.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with IPFW winning the last two by 20 and 10 points.  IPFW is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 January games.  NKU is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five games ATS.  Bet Northern Kentucky Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Cleveland State +2.5

Cleveland State is 10-0 SU at home this season.  That includes wins over three of the best teams in the Horizon League in Oakland, Northern Kentucky and IPFW.  The Vikings should not be home underdogs to Wright State tonight.

The Vikings will be out for revenge from an 82-70 road loss at Wright State on January 4th in their first meeting earlier this month.  Wright State shot 60% from the field and 8-of-16 (50% from 3-point range, while Cleveland State shot 38.9% from the field, 9-of-27 (33%) from 3 and 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.

Wright State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference road games this season without outright upset losses at Green Bay by 11 and at Milwaukee by 8, as well as a 10-point loss at Youngstown State.  Cleveland State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five regular season meetings with Wright State.  Bet Cleveland State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Green Bay +3

What more does Green Bay have to do to get some respect?  Green Bay is 7-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  One of those losses came 79-73 at Oakland as 7.5-point road dogs.  Now the Phoenix get their shot at revenge at home this time around with first place in the Horizon on the line.

Oakland is overvalued off six consecutive victories with five of those wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  The Golden Grizzlies have just been fortunate in close games.  Their luck runs out tonight on the highway.  They made 14 more FT's than Green Bay in that first meeting which was the difference in that 6-point win.  I expect the home team to get the benefit of the whistle again here.

Green Bay is 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in conference play beating Cleveland State by 8 as 1-point dogs, beating Robert Morris by 17 as 3-point favorites, upsetting Wright State by 11 as 7.5-point dogs and upsetting Milwaukee by 12 as 2-point dogs.

Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing four consecutive games as a favorite.  Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in conference games this season.  The Phoenix are 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Green Bay is 9-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet Green Bay Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +14

Valparaiso has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall not once losing by more than 9 points.  That includes a 59-50 upset win at Illinois State as a 10-point dog.  The Beacons only lost by 9 as 9.5-point home dogs to Southern Illinois.

Now Valparaiso is out for revenge on the Salukis and catching 14 points in the rematch on the road.  This number is too high, especially when you consider how poorly SIU is playing of late.  This is a team that lost a lot in the transfer portal and wasn't able to replace that talent.

Southern Illinois is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 18 at home to Drake, by 1 at home to Bradley and by 4 at Northern Iowa.  The Salukis just don't have the same kind of home-court advantage this season that they have in years' past.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo a second time this season.

Valparaiso is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Beacons are 6-0 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Southern Illinois ranks 341st in adjusted tempo, making it hard for them to get margin because there just aren't enough possessions.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 234

La'Melo Ball recently returned from injury and makes the Hornets a dead nuts OVER team when he's on the court.  They play with more pace and are a much more efficient offensive team with him than without him.

We have seen that play out since he returned.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in four of the five games since he returned with the lone exception being a game against the Miami Heat, who are a dead nuts under team.  They went for 253 with Minnesota, 244 with San Antonio and 244 with New Orleans in his last three games.

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pistons have gone for 235 or more combined points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall and 11 of their last 13 games as well.  This total of 234 is too short tonight given all these facts.

Detroit is 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive ATS wins this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -8

Bradley has won eight consecutive games with seven of those eight wins coming by 11 points or more.  I fully expect them to win this game against Murray State by double-digits tonight.

It's revenge time for the Braves after losing 79-72 as 3.5-point favorites at Murray State back in November.  But the Braves are much healthier and playing a lot better since that defeat.  They beat Murray State 83-48 at home last season.

Murray State lost by 10 at home to Northern Iowa and by 9 at home to Indiana State in two of its last three games coming in.  Stepping up in class has not gone well for them.  The Racers have not been a good road team either, and Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in all of college basketball.

Bradley is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games off a win by 15 points or more.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on USF/Temple UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Temple and USF this month.  The first resulted in a 76-68 home win for USF and 144 combined points.  I fully expect the 2nd meeting to be even more low scoring.

In fact, each of the last seven meetings between Temple and USF have seen 144 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.

Temple ranks 279th in adjusted offense and 351st in effective FG% this season.  South Florida ranks 172nd in adjusted offense and 233rd in effective field goal percentage.  Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are on offense.

USF is 9-0 UNDER after playing a game as a favorite this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -5.5

Virginia is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 22.1 points per game.  They beat Virginia Tech by 8 and Louisville by 24 in covering each of their first two ACC home games this season.  They will win by 6-plus over NC State to cover this short number as well.

Virginia wants revenge from a 76-60 road loss at NC State on January 6th.  Now they get to host the Wolfpack, who are 0-2 ATS in ACC road games this season only winning by 2 at Notre Dam eas 5-point favorites and by 6 at Louisville as 7.5-point favorites.  This will be their toughest test of the season since a 9-point loss on a neutral to Tennessee.  They also lost by 20 at Ole Miss in another true road game.

Virginia lost by 14 at NC State last year and avenged that defeat with a 63-50 win as a 7.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  It will be more of the same this season.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Xavier +8.5

Xavier is playing its best basketball of the season right now under head coach Sean Miller.  The Musketeers are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 1 at Villanova and by 5 at home to UConn.  They beat Seton Hall by 20 at home, won outright at Providence as underdogs by 20 and crushed Butler by 14 at home.

Creighton has been grossly overvalued for over a month.  The Bluejays are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They beat Seton Hall in triple-OT on Saturday and will still be feeling the after effects of that grueling game.  They should not be laying 8.5 points at home to Xavier tonight.

Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games beating St. John's by 1 as 6-point favorites, Providence by 9 as 11-point favorites, losing outright to Villanova as 9.5-point favorites and only beating Alabama by 3 as 7-point favorites.

Xavier is a perfect 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss this season.  The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a SU win where they failed to cover the spread.  Xavier is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have a way of playing up to their level of competition, and the Musketeers will give the Bluejays a run for their money tonight.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in pace and 5th in offensive rating.  They are scoring 121.7 points per game this season.  They put up 134 and 139 points in their two meetings with the Blazers this season.

The Blazers have been much more productive offensively here of late due to getting much healthier.  They are coming off a game that saw 244 combined points with the Lakers.  I think they can do enough offensively to push this one up and OVER the total.

Oklahoma City is 11-3 OVER when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Thunder will be fresh and ready to run up and down the court tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on New York -4

The New York Knicks are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Raptors.  They are in a great spot tonight rested coming off two days' rest and I expect them to make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets as a result.

The Nets are 4-15 SU & 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall and dealing with a bunch of trade rumors right now.  This is a terrible spot for the Nets returning home from a 3-game road trip that included two games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers to close out the trip.  They will be flat tonight in their first game back home.

The Knicks have owned the Nets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 18 and 24 at home and by 19 on the road, which was their lone meeting this season.  New York is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Duquesne ML -125

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Duquesne Dukes.  They have opened 0-5 SU &1-4 ATS in conference play and will be highly motivated for their first conference victory tonight.  They have played a brutal schedule with road games at UMass, Loyola-Chicago and St. Joe's as well as home losses to Dayton and Richmond.  They were competitive in all five games including a pair of 2-point losses in their last two.

St. Bonaventure is a team Duquesne can handle tonight.  They have opened 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play including road losses by 11 at Richmond and by 9 at George Mason in their last two games away from home.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings in this head-to-head series.

St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on UMass -3

The UMass Minutemen have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season under head coach Frank Martin.  He has turned this program around already going 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS this season.  That includes 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home with a huge home-court advantage.  They beat Duquesne by 19, La Salle by 16 and George Washington by 14 in covering each of their last three home games.

This is a terrible spot for St. Joe's.  The Hawks are coming off three consecutive home games, including a 2-point win as 7.5-point favorites over Duquesne on Saturday at the buzzer.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hawks.

St. Joe's is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games.  They lost by 7 as 3-point dogs at Charleston, by 4 as 5.5-point favorites at Rhode Island and by 3 as 3-point favorites at St. Louis.  This will be one of their toughest road tests of the entire season tonight.

UMass is 7-0 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Minutemen are 7-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* Texas/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4.5

Oklahoma has lost its last three meetings with Texas by a combined 5 points total.  It's safe to say the Sooners will be out for revenge tonight, and they finally have the goods to get that revenge.  Porter Moser's team is his best in Norman, while the Texas Longhorns have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.

Oklahoma is 15-3 SU this season including 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home.  The Sooners won and covered both Big 12 home games this season beating Iowa State by 8 as 1.5-point favorites and West Virginia by 14 as 12.5-point home favorites.  I have no doubt they win this game by 5-plus points over Texas tonight.

The Longhorns are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They lost by 21 at Marquette, won by 1 at Cincinnati and lost outright at West Virginia as 6-point favorites in their three true road games this season.  This is a letdown spot for Texas as well coming off a win over Baylor at the buzzer over the weekend.  That followed up an upset loss to UCF as 8.5-point home favorites.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Longhorns are 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgetown +3.5

First-year head coach Ed Cooley has the Georgetown Hoyas improving rapidly in recent weeks.  The Hoyas are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 4 at home to Seton Hall as 6.5-point dogs, losing by 13 at UConn as 21-point dogs and losing by 1 at Xavier as 12-point dogs.

Now the Hoyas will want revenge on Butler after losing by 10 on the road to the Bulldogs in their first meeting this season on December 19th.  This is an overvalued Bulldogs team that has gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are ripe for the upset tonight.

Butler is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Georgetown Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +14.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been a lot more competitive than they are getting credit for.  That includes a 4-point loss to Milwaukee, a 2-point loss to Cleveland and a 6-point loss to Chicago.  I expect them to hang with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

This looks like a potential sleepy spot for the 76ers, who have won five consecutive games and have a five-game road trip coming up next.  They kind of sleep walked through their 97-89 win as 11-point favorites at Charlotte on Saturday.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.

This is the final game of a 5-game road trip for the Spurs and I always feel like teams are more motivated in that final game on a road trip to end it with a win.  San Antonio will give Philadelphia a run for its money tonight.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Magic UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in six of its last seven games.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Magic tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers remain without two of their best scorers in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  One of their top bench scorers in Caris LeVert is questionable as well.  The Cavaliers have had to rely a lot on defense without these guys, and they have done a great job of it.  Indeed, Cleveland has allowed 102 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 UNDER during this stretch.

This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams already.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Cavs and Magic combined for just 198 points in their most recent meeting on December 11th.  In fact, the Cavs and Magic have combined for 214 or fewer points in 16 of their last 20 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Wake Forest/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 155.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 81.1 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 76 or more in nine of 10 with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

North Carolina is also an OVER team ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted offense.  The Tar Heels are scoring 83.4 points per game this season.  I expect the Tar Heels to get 80-plus in this one and the Demon Deacons to likely get close or exceed 80 as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 177, 167, 174, 153 and 176 combined points in those five meetings.  They have averaged 169.4 combined points per game in those five, which is roughly 14 points more than this 155.5-point total.  There is serious value on the OVER as a result.

Wake Forest is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 January games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Wake Forest is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City +3

Note: Buy to +3 (-125) or better

I've been riding the Buffalo Bills with regularity since their bye week.  The Bills returned from their bye and went on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in a controversial finish.  I was fortunate to cash that ticket on the Bills, who are 6-0 SU since their bye week.  But now it's time to buck the Bills and back the Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the rest advantage and the injury advantage.  The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were held to four field goals as they struggled in the red zone or would have won by even more.  Now they have had the last seven days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  That's especially the case since they rested their starters in Week 18.

The Bills did not have the luxury of getting to rest their starters in Week 18.  They needed to beat the Dolphins to win the division and get the No. 2 seed.  They came back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to beat the Dolphins 21-14.  It was their 3rd consecutive dog fight after beating the Chargers 24-22 on the road and the Patriots 27-21 at home.  Then they beat the Steelers 31-17 at home last week, but their defense was on the field for the majority of the 2nd half.

That game against the Steelers was played on Monday as it was moved due to weather.  Now the Bills only have five days' rest and not much time to prepare for the Chiefs.  The Bills lost several defensive starters to injury against the Steelers to boot.  Now the Bills have 6 defensive starters questionable to play in this game.  These 6 have combined for 548 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 35 passes defended and 91 of a possible 102 starts.  The Bills would be lucky if they even have half of them available.  Not to mention, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is hurt and may not play this week.

The Chiefs had basically a bye in Week 18 to rest their starters.  They came back fresh and ready to go and crushed the Dolphins 26-7.  Their offense worked as well as it has all season with 409 total yards on the Dolphins.  They rushed for 167 yards and Mahomes found some chemistry with his receivers.  Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a TD while Travis Kelce has seven receptions for 71 yards in the win.  I expect Mahomes and company to have a monster game against this banged up Buffalo defense.

Josh Allen has been a walking turnover this season and I think he will give the ball to the Chiefs one or two times that will be the difference in this game.  The Chiefs outgained the Bills 346 to 327 and 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in that first meeting in Kansas City.  Those numbers would have been even worse if the TD from Mahomes, to Kelce, to Toney stood had Toney not been called for being offsides in a tick-tack call.  The Chiefs want their revenge, and given all their advantages coming into this one in rest and injuries, I expect them to get that revenge.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds in his career.  The Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog with their lone loss coming with Alex Smith at QB in 2017.  Buffalo is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Andy Reid is 42-22 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday night.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic UNDER 215.5

Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Heat last 12 games overall and 5-0 in their last five.  They have gone for 218 or fewer combined points in five consecutive games and played two dead nuts over teams in that stretch in Toronto and Atlanta, the only two games that would have gone over this total.

One of those five games was against Orlando on January 12th.  The Heat won that game 99-96 for just 195 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and it should be more of the same here in the rematch.

Orlando is also a dead nuts UNDER team going 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in five of its last six games.  Simply put, this total has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Murray State OVER 154

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores rank 45th in adjusted tempo, 19th in adjusted offense and 102nd in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 86.5 points per game on 51.3% shooting this season.  They have scored at least 75 points in every game this season.

Murray State ranks 98th in adjusted offense but just 213th in adjusted defense.  The Racers have been much better offensively of late scoring at least 73 points in five of their last six games.  I expect Indiana State to get 80-plus in this one and Murray State to get to 75.  These teams combined for 165 and 155 points in their two meetings last season.

Indiana State is 9-2 OVER with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  Murray State is 18-8 OVER in its last 26 games as an underdog.  Indiana State and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in seven of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bucs/Lions NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +7

Note: Buy to +7 (-120) or better

The Tampa Bay Bucs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall not only just to make the playoffs, but to also upset the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Round in their most complete performance of the season.  A big reason for their success is a return to health on defense, where the Bucs will have the best unit on the field Sunday when they take on the Detroit Lions.

This Tampa Bay defense shut out the Panthers and then held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards last week.  They also held the Packers to 20 points, the Jaguars to 12 points, the Saints to 23 points in their three games prior and have now allowed an average of just 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  This is one of the best defenses in the entire NFL right now.

Baker Mayfield deserves Comeback Player of the Year with what he is doing right now.  He completed 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 22-of-36 for 337 yards with 3 TD and no picks against the Eagles and didn't look injured at all.  His numbers would have been even better if Mike Evans and Cade Otton didn't drop two TD passes that were thrown perfectly.  Mayfield knows this is his opportunity and isn't about to waste it.

The Lions were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 victory over the Rams last week.  The difference was the Lions went 3-for-3 scoring TD's in the red zone while the Rams went 0-for-3 and settled for 3 FG.  The Rams dominated the box score.  They outgained the Lions 425 to 334 and 7.7 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play.  This Detroit defense cannot be trusted to get margin.  It's arguably the worst defense left in these playoffs.

The Lions have been life and death in four consecutive games now.  It stemmed back to their 30-24 win at Minnesota in which they benefited from four Vikings turnovers.  Then they lost 20-19 on the road in Dallas after a failed 2-point conversion in the final seconds.  Instead of resting their starters in a meaningless Week 18 game, the Lions went balls to the ball in a 30-20 home win over the Vikings.  They allowed 448 total yards to the Vikings and their 3rd-string QB.  And last week they needed a late stop to beat the Rams and their offense got a 1D to run out the clock.  I question how much the Lions have left in the tank now.

Tampa Bay is a pass-happy team and that makes this a great matchup for them because the Lions' strength defensively is stopping the run.  The Lions rely a lot on running the football, and the Bucs are great at stopping the run allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  This is a great matchup for the Bucs on both sides of the football.

Baker Mayfield is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-0 ATS in his last four.  The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in all road games this season and have played their best football away from home.  That includes their 34-20 win at Green Bay against a Packers team that was playing great football and is still playing great.  The Bucs dominated that game outgaining the Packers 452 to 321 for the game.  Green Bay went into Detroit on Thanksgiving and won 29-22.

Todd Bowles is 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where his team scored 14 points or less as the coach of Tampa Bay.  He will make the proper defensive adjustments in the rematch from a 20-6 home loss to the Lions early in the season.  And this Tampa Bay offense has improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat, plus their defense is a lot healthier now.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +3.5

Memphis is overvalued due to going 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall.  The Tigers have been winning a ton of close games and have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 2 as 15.5-point home favorites, Austin Peay by 11 as 20-point home favorites, Tulsa by 3 as 9.5-point road favorites, SMU by 3 as 7-point home favorites and UTSA in OT by 6 as 19-point home favorites.

Their luck finally ran out last time out as they lost 74-73 outright as 10-point home favorites to South Florida on Thursday.  Now they only have two days to get ready to Tulane.  The Green Wave have had the last three days off since a loss at UAB.

We've seen what the Green Wave are capable of at home as they took Florida Atlantic to the wire as 7-point dogs in a 85-84 loss.  They are 8-2 SU at home this season with the other loss coming by 3 points to George Mason.  So they haven't lost any home game by more than 3 points this season, making for a 10-0 system backing the Green Wave pertaining to this 3.5-point spread.

Tulane upset Memphis in both regular season meetings last season winning 96-89 as 4-point home dogs and 90-89 as 7-point road dogs.  The Green Wave are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a road loss.  Tulane is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after playing a game as a road underdog.  The Tigers are ripe to get upset again today.  Bet Tulane Sunday.

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 50

The San Francisco 49ers are scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  They will be able to name their number on this Green Back Packers defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Packers allowed 34 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Panthers and 32 to the Cowboys down the stretch.  

Green Bay's defense was on the field for 85 snaps against the Cowboys and gave up 510 yards on Sunday.  Now they are gassed and on a short week having to play on Saturday this week.  They lost CB Jaire Alexander and LB Kinglsey Enagbare to injury in that game and both are unlikely to play this week.  Fellow starters in DE Kenny Clark, RB Rashan Gary, FS Darnell Savage and SS Jonathan Owens are also banged up and questionable.

The 49ers are going to score 34-plus points in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  But I think the Packers can keep pace with how well Jordan Love is playing.  Love has a 21-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is playing as well as any QB in the NFL.  He has all of his weapons healthy and that has made a big difference.  He went 16-of-21 for 272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys.

The Packers have now scored at least 20 points in eight of their last nine games overall and are averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch.  They will get 20-plus in this one.  The lone exception was 17 in poor weather against the Bears, but they had 432 total yards on a very good Chicago defense and should have scored more.  They will find success throwing the ball against the 49ers, whose weakness is in their secondary defensively.  The 49ers haven't faced many offenses as good as Green Bay's this season.

Green Bay is 8-2 OVER in road games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Packers seven road games against NFC opponents this season.  Green Bay is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on 76ers/Hornets OVER 229

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts under team without La'Melo Ball this season.  But he recently returned from injury, giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Hornets OVER.  They are a much better offensive team with Ball in the lineup and they play with a lot more pace with him as well.

We have seen that play out in their last two games. The Hornets lost 132-112 at New Orleans for 244 combined points and beat the Spurs 124-120 for 244 combined points.  This total of 229 has been set too low against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall and just got Joel Embiid back from injury.  They combined for 239 points with Houston, 247 points with Denver and 233 points with Orlando.

Philadelphia is 41-20 OVER in its last 61 games as a road favorite.  The 76ers are 21-11 OVER as a favorite this season.  Philadelphia is 21-8 OVER in its last 29 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Philadelphia) - after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days are 28-6 (82.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UNC-Wilmington -2.5

I love the spot for UNC-Wilmington today.  They will be playing with triple-revenge after losing all three meetings with Charleston last season, including a 5-point loss in the conference tournament after a 2-point home loss earlier in the year.  They blew a late lead in the conference tournament and have not forgotten.  They get their revenge in their first meeting of 2023-24 this season at home.

Wilmington has played a road-heavy schedule this season but has taken advantage of its home games, going 5-0 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points per game.  They also upset Kentucky 80-73 as 18-point road dogs to flash their potential.  Charleston isn't as good as last season when they made the NCAA Tournament.

The Cougars are 5-4 SU but 3-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  They are coming off an 82-78 road loss at Towson as 11-point favorites.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs, and they lost on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7 despite being favored in all three of those games.

Charleston is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after winning three of its last four games.  Wilmington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games after covering two of its last three games coming in.  Wilmington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a total of 150 to 159.5.  Wilmington is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Bet UNC-Wilmington Saturday.

15* Texans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +9

The Houston Texans have been in must-win mode for three consecutive weeks now.  They got CJ Stroud back against the Titans in Week 17 and beat them 26-3 at home.  They went on to beat Indianapolis 23-19 on the road with the division title on the line.  And last week they crushed the Cleveland Browns 45-14 at home.

Stroud is technically a rookie, but he's already a Top 10 QB in this league.  Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 16-of-21 for 274 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against Cleveland, who had the best defensive numbers in the NFL.  He also missed a wide open 50-plus yard TD and had another 30-plus yard completion dropped by his TE in that game, or those already gaudy numbers would have been even better.

But while Stroud gets all the headlines on this Houston team, it's the defense that we should really be excited about and the unit that gives them a chance to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive.  The Texans have been banged up on defense all season, but they are currently about as healthy as they have been all year.  They held the Titans to 3 points, the Colts to 19 points and the previously potent Browns to 14 points in their last three games.

The strength of this Houston defense is stopping the run, which makes this a good matchup for them since the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  The Texans only allow 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The weakness of this Baltimore defense is stopping the run as they give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's significant since the forecast is calling for 15-20 MPH winds in Baltimore.  The Texans will be able to run the ball with Devin Singletary to take some pressure off of Stroud, who will make the plays when he needs to just as he has all season.

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  Not only did the Ravens rest most their starters in Week 18, but then they got a bye week too.  They had built up a ton of momentum with six consecutive wins including their upset victory over the 49ers.  Now resting in Week 18 and having their bye week kills all their momentum.  These starters have had the last couple weeks off and rust may be a factor.  They also have all the pressure on them with their previous failures in the playoffs as Lamar Jackson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in his playoff career. The Texans are the team with the positive momentum and no pressure as they are playing on house money at this point.  

The Ravens got bad injury news leading into this game with top CB Marlon Humphrey and Jackson's favorite target in TE Mark Andrews both not expected to play in this game.  Jackson is 1-8 ATS as a starting QB as a favorite of -7.5 or higher in his career.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  I think Baltimore's misleading 25-9 win over Houston in Week 1 is inflating this line.  Houston actually outgained Baltimore in that game and held the Ravens to 265 total yards, and it was Stroud's first career start.  The Texans have improved by leaps and bounds since then and will prove it this weekend.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +1.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on North Texas.  The Mean Green have gone 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft, home-heavy schedule.  They beat East Carolina 60-59 as 3-point road favorites last time out.  Their luck runs out today and they will get upset by Charlotte.

Charlotte is 7-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  The 49ers upset Florida Atlantic as 8-point dogs four games ago to show what they are capable of at home.  They went on to avoid letdowns winning and covering against Tulsa, UTSA and Rice with two of those three games on the road.

North Texas is just 3-5 SU in all games played away from home this season.  Charlotte is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with North Texas.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games following a road game.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -2

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Clemson and 'sell high' on Florida State.  Clemson is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and highly motivated for a victory.  The Tigers have had the last three days off to get ready for this game against Florida State, and I expect them to put forth their best effort of the season.

The Seminoles are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off an 84-75 upset win at Miami as 5.5-point dogs on Wednesday.  They only have two days off to get ready for this game, and they are still celebrating that win over one of their biggest in-state rivals.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Clemson today, and I expect a sloppy game from the Seminoles.

Clemson is 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida State.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +6

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Duquesne Dukes.  They have opened 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in conference play and will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have played a brutal schedule with road games at UMass and Loyola-Chicago as well as home losses to Dayton and Richmond.  They were competitive in all four games.

They will be competitive in this game as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the outright upset to get that elusive first conference victory.  St. Joseph's isn't exactly crushing either, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last three games overall despite facing a much softer schedule with upset losses to Rhode Island and Saint Louis on the road as well as Loyola-Chicago at home.  Their lone win came against a very bad La Salle team at home.

Duquesne won both meetings with St. Joe's last season in blowout fashion by 14 at home and by 12 on the road.  Bet Duquesne Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +8.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They were in a sleepy spot against Louisville at home last time out and needed a late run to pull away and win by 16 as 21-point favorites.  Now they are once again in a sleepy spot and laying too many points on the road at Boston College today.

Boston College has had the last four days off to get ready for UNC while the Tar Heels have only had the last two days off, so the Eagles have a big rest and preparation advantage.  I like what I've seen from this team especially at home where Boston College is 7-2 SU with both losses coming by 6 points each.  They haven't lost at home by this kind of margin all season, making for a 9-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

UNC is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston College is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  We'll 'buy low' on the Eagles who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State -2

I love this spot for Arizona State.  They are coming off consecutive losses at Washington and at home to UCLA and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They had won four consecutive games prior to these losses with four outright wins as underdogs.  Now they are back home where they are 7-1 SU this season.

They take on an injury-ravaged USC team that is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 8 at home to Washington State, by 10 at Colorado and by 15 at Arizona.  It won't get any easier for them today because of these injuries.  USC is without Isaiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG), and both Boogie Ellis (18.7 PPG) and DJ Rodman (7.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG) are questionable.  If all three are out, they will be without three of their top four scorers.  It's too much to overcome even if they are only without Collier.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Wake Forest OVER 151

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 30th in adjusted offense and are scoring 80.6 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in seven of their last nine games overall and 76 or more in eight of nine with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

Louisville has scored 70-plus points in six of its last seven games with the lone exception being against Virginia.  The Cardinals are a decent offensive team ranking 167th in adjusted offense but just 239th in adjusted defense.  I think Louisville gets 70-plus and Wake Forest gets 80-plus in this one for us to cash this OVER ticket.

The Demon Deacons haven't had sharp-shooter Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG last year) all season but he makes his much-anticipated return from injury today.  Wake Forest and Louisville have combined for 152 and 176 points in their last two meetings.  Wake Forest is 13-1 OVER in its last 14 January games.  Louisville is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after losing 8 or more of its last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Marquette/St. John's Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John's +1.5

I love the spot for St. John's today.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses at Creighton and at Seton Hall.  But now they are back home where they are 7-1 SU this season and highly motivated for a victory when they host Marquette today.

Marquette is not playing well at atll.  The Golden Eagles are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They lost by 3 at Seton Hall and were upset at home by Butler as 12-point favorites in two of their last three games.  They have not played well on the road, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three true road games losing by 11 as 3-point favorites at Wisconsin, by 15 as 4-point favorites at Providence and by 3 as 5-point favorites at Seton Hall.  They are once again favored on the road here when they shouldn't be.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* Indiana/Wisconsin FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 143

This Big Ten game has UNDER written all over it.  Wisconsin ranks 316th in adjusted tempo and 59th in adjusted defense.  Indiana is better defensively than offensively, ranking 72nd in adjusted defense but just 125th in adjusted offense.  The Badgers will control the tempo playing at home and slow it down to a snail's pace.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER head-to-head series.  Indeed, Indiana and Wisconsin have combined for 143 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 108, 143, 123, 122 and 116 points at the end of regulation in those five meetings.  That's an average of 122.4 combined points per game, which is more than 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 143.  There's a ton of value on the UNDER tonight folks.

Indiana is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 road games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference opponent.  Wisconsin is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 233

Both the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics are fully healthy right now and elite offensive teams when that's the case.  The Nuggets have scored at least 117 points in six of their last seven games overall.  The Celtics have scored at least 117 points in 14 of their last 16 games overall.  Both teams will get 117-plus in this one as we easily cash this OVER 233 ticket.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings as the Celtics and Nuggets have combined for 234 and 243 points in their last two meetings.  Boston is 18-5 OVER in its last 23 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  Bet the OVER In this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Hornets OVER 235.5

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts under team without La'Melo Ball this season.  But he recently returned from injury, giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Hornets OVER.  They are a much better offensive team with Ball in the lineup and they play with a lot more pace with him as well.

We saw that play out last game with the Hornets losing 132-112 at New Orleans for 244 combined points.  This total of 235.5 has been set too low against the San Antonio Spurs tonight.

Victor Wembenyama is sitting tonight for the Spurs.  They have been a dead nuts under team with him in the lineup, and much more of an over team without him because he is their best defender.  In fact, they have gone 7-0-2 UNDER in their last nine games with Wembenyama.

In their last four games without Wembenyama, the OVER is 4-0 as they combined for 238 points with the Bulls, 262 points with the Blazers, 263 points with the Mavericks and 251 points with the Bucks.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-San Diego +6.5

UC-San Diego has quietly gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tritons' only loss came by 4 as 9-point dogs at California.  Earlier this season, they only lost by 1 to San Diego State as 13.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

UC-Irvine is 5-1 SU but just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Anteaters have been living good winning a bunch of close games, especially at home.  They won by 7 as 12-point favorites over UC-Riverside, by 8 as 12-point favorites over CS-Fullerton and by 3 as 9-point favorites over UC-Davis.  Their luck may run out tonight against a Tritons team that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

San Diego is 11-4 ATS in all games this season.  Irvine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better.  The Anteaters are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.  The Tritons won outright as 12.5-point underdogs at Irvine last season.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +4

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

They beat the Pacers by 27, the Lakers by 7 on the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Raptors by 32, the Nuggets by 13, the Bucks outright by 16 as 8-point road dogs and the 76ers outright by 11 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last six games coming in.  They should not be 4-point home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Jazz have a big rest advantage over the Thunder, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and in altitude tonight to boot.  The Thunder will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight and started to show signs of wearing down with a 7-point loss to the Lakers and an 11-point loss to the Clippers in their last two games coming in.  Meanwhile, the Jazz will be playing on two days' rest after having last night's game against the Warriors canceled.

The Jazz are 15-5 SU & 16-3-1 ATS at home this season.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 11-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season.  Utah is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +11.5

Memphis is overvalued due to its current 10-game winning streak.  The Tigers have been winning a ton of close games and have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 2 as 15.5-point home favorites, Austin Peay by 11 as 20-point home favorites, Tulsa by 3 as 9.5-point road favorites, SMU by 3 as 7-point home favorites and UTSA in OT by 6 as 19-point home favorites.

Now the Tigers are laying too many points once again to a South Florida team that can hang with them for 40 minutes.  South Florida is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Bulls upset Florida State by 16 as 7-point dogs on a neutral, upset Loyola-Chicago by 13 as 1-point home dogs, and their lone loss come by 4 as 4.5-point dogs at UAB.

South Florida is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Memphis is 1-7 ATS at home this season.  The Tigers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as home favorites of 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games following four or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a good team (60-80%).  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +11.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are catching too many points tonight at home against Auburn.  The Commodores have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 2 as 15.5-point dogs at Memphis, beating Dartmouth by 16 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 3 as 12.5-point home dogs to Alabama and losing by 8 as 8.5-point dogs at LSU.  They were even competitive in their 13-point loss at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, and that's an Ole Miss team that is 15-1 this season.

If the Commodores can nearly upset Alabama at home and Memphis on the road, they can certainly stay within 11.5 points of Auburn.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers, who have gone 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  They have only played two true road games all season and one of them resulted in an upset loss at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt is 12-3 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Auburn.  The Commodores upset the Tigers 67-65 as 3-point home dogs last season.  Plays against road teams as a favorite or PK (Auburn) - a hot team having covered six or seven of its last eight games, a top-level team winning 80% of its games or more against a losing team are 45-12 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pelicans OVER 229

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts under team without La'Melo Ball this season.  But he recently returned from injury, giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Hornets OVER.  They are a much better offensive team with Ball in the lineup and they play with a lot more pace with him as well.

The Pelicans are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored an average of 125.0 points per game in their last five games.  I think they get to 125-plus tonight, and the Hornets do enough to push this one OVER the total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team that wins 25% or less are 28-5 (84.8%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +16

The San Antonio Spurs are 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall playing their most competitive basketball of the season.  They only lost at Memphis by 8, to the Bucks by 4, to the Cavs by 2, to the Bulls by 6 and at the Hawks by 10 in their five defeats during this stretch.  Now they are catching too many points once again to the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is overvalued due to its 19-0 home record this season.  But they needed OT recently at home to beat both the Pistons and the Timberwolves.  With this perfect home record comes expectations that are difficult to live up to, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics as a result.

Three starters in Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White are all questionable to play tonight for the Celtics.  Jaylen Brown is banged up as well.  The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season, which has been the key to them being so competitive of late and covering a bunch of spreads.  They'll cover another tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

This is one of the best Kentucky teams that John Calipari has had in his tenure in Lexington which is saying a lot.  The Wildcats are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and have been undervalued.  I love the spot for the Wildcats after getting humbled on the road with an OT loss at Texas A&M.

Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 8-1 this season and outscoring opponents by 21.3 points per game.  They host a Mississippi State team that has only played two true road games all season, and both resulted in upset losses by 8 as 8.5-point favorites at Georgia Tech and by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina.

Kentucky is 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Mississippi State with all eight wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +8.5

The Rhode Island Rams are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Northeastern by 11 as 2-point home favorites, upsetting St. Joe's by 4 as 5.5-point home dogs, upsetting Davidson by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upsetting UMass by 12 as 2.5-point home dogs.

This run has coincided with getting their best player in David Green (15.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) eligible and playing.  He has returned for the past four games.  Now he and Jaden House (14.8 PPG) are forming a dynamic tandem.

St. Bonaventure is coming off an upset home loss to Fordham as 10.5-point favorites.  That folled up an 11-point loss at Richmond as 2-point favorites.  The Bonnies have no business being favored by 8.5 over the Rams tonight given how these teams are trending.

St. Bonaventure is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 home games off a home loss.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -4

The Phoenix Suns finally heave the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy and playing at the same time.  They are showing what they are capable of when that's the case in recent weeks.  The Suns are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall including a 127-109 road win over the Lakers two games ago.

The Suns have the next two days off so they will be 'all in' to get a win over the Sacramento Kings tonight.  I question how much the Kings have left in the tank as they will be playing their 5th consecutive road game and coming off an OT loss at Milwaukee at the buzzer on Sunday.  They will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days as well as their 9th game in 15 days overall.

Sacramento is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Kings are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 road games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Plays against road underdogs (Sacramento) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -15.5

I love the spot for the Colorado State Rams tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive very tough road losses at Utah State and Boise State.  Now they return home focused to get back on track and won't be taking this game lightly against the awful Air Force Falcons.

Colorado State is 8-1 at home this season with wins over the likes of Colorado and New Mexico as well as a neutral court win over Creighton by 22.  The Rams are a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender this season.

Air Force is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  They lost outright as favorites at home to Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado and San Jose State.  They also lost by 26 at home to Utah State, a team that is on Colorado State's level.  They lost by 13 at Nevada as well.  

The spot also favors Colorado State because they have had the last six days off and haven't played since last Tuesday.  So they have had a full week to correct their mistakes and are pissed off.  The Falcons have only two days to get ready for the Rams after losing to San Jose State on Saturday.  Bet Colorado State Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State PK

The Kansas State Wildcats have been very impressive of late going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point 60-59 as 6-point road dogs at Texas Tech.  I look for them to take down Baylor at home tonight.

Baylor has played a home-heavy schedule this season.  They have only played one true road game, and they needed OT to beat Oklahoma State.  That's the same Oklahoma State team that went on to lose by 17 at Texas Tech and by 26 at Iowa State.  Baylor also lost by 24 to Michigan State in a game that was played in Detroit.

Kansas State won both meetings with Baylor last season 97-95 as 7.5-point road dogs and 75-65 as 2-point home dogs.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games after going under the total in their previous game, and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following two or more consecutive unders.

Kansas State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following three consecutive conference games.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference home games.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +10.5

We've already seen Purdue suffer both of their losses on the Big Ten highway this season.  They lost 92-88 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern and 88-72 as 7.5-point favorites at Nebraska.  They should not be laying 10.5 points on the road at Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming to Kansas by 4 as 7-point dogs.  They led that game 90% of the way and only lost it in the final minutes.  They beat Minnesota by 12, Ohio State by 6 and Maryland by 12.  Assembly Hall is one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have had Matt Painter and the Boilermakers' number in recent meetings.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Purdue.  They won outright 79-71 as 7-point road dogs, 79-74 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost by 2 as 10-point road dogs and won by 3 as 4-point home dogs.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record 15-plus games into the season.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points pre game.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 148.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 80.9 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in seven of their last eight games overall with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

NC State is coming off a 89-83 win at Louisville and has now scored at least 81 points in six of its last 10 games overall.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one, so this 148.5-point total is way too short.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  Wake Forest is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 January games.  NC State is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 236.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 6th in pace and 4th in offensive rating. They have scored at least 119 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall, and 112 points or more in all 13.

The Los Angeles Lakers have allowed 132, 127 and 131 points in their last three games coming in. They are not playing defense since the In-Season Tournament. They can get their points on offense to hang with the Thunder in a shootout though.

That has been the case in recent meetings as the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 249, 243, 227, 240 and 263 combined points with none of those games going to OT. Those 249 and 243-point totals came in their first two meetings this season. It should be more of the same tonight.

Plays on the OVER on any team (LA Lakers) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games are 23-6 (79.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7.5

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

They beat the Lakers by 7 on the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Raptors by 32, the Nuggets by 13, the Bucks outright by 16 as 8-point road dogs and the 76ers outright by 11 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last five games coming in. They should be more than 7.5-point favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers. They are without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton. They are coming off a 109-117 road loss at Denver on Sunday. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude. They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days and their 3rd consecutive road game. This is a tired team to say the least.

Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season. The Jazz are 14-5 SU & 15-3-1 ATS at home this season. Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 241

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 8-1 in Raptors last nine games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They combined for 258 points with the Jazz, 246 with the Clippers, 263 with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last five games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Celtics tonight.

Boston just hung 145 points on the Rockets last game and has now scored at least 118 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. The Celtics rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and will be able to name their number on the Raptors, who have allowed 118 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall. But I think Toronto can keep pace in a shootout.

Toronto is 16-4 OVER after playing a road game this season. The OVER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They are 12-0 SU & 14-2 ATS this season, including 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS at home. Their only home loss came when they blew a 20-plus point 2H lead to Missouri in a 2-point defeat. They beat Nebraska and Maryland at home in Big Ten play.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have always had huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffrey. That's the case again this season as the Hawkeyes are terrible on the road. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season, losing by 8 at Creighton, by 19 at Purdue, by 25 at Iowa State and by 11 at Wisconsin.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Bet Minnesota Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are the most overvalued team in the NBA this season. They are 15-23 SU & 9-29 ATS this season, including 6-11 SU & 3-14 ATS at home. They don't play defense ranking 27th in defensive rating, and their chemistry is terrible right now.

The Hawks are 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They haven't won a game by more than 7 points since December 15th, which was 15 games ago, so they'd be 0-14 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of -7.5. They were just upset by 28 at home by the Wizards as 7-point favorites. They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Spurs today.

The Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall taking the Grizzlies, Bucks, Cavs and Bulls to the wire in four losses by 8 points or less. They also crushed the Pistons by 22 and the Hornets by 36. They will have Victor Wembanyama for this game, and they are a pretty good team with him in the lineup.

Atlanta is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Hawks are 2-16 ATS as favorites this season. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS vs. teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns -10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are playing as poorly as any team in the NBA right now. They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 21 points or more. That's why I'm willing to lay the -10.5 with the Phoenix Suns tonight.

The Blazers are also in a terrible spot returning home from a 7-game road trip. There is a lot of distractions they will have to deal with back at home, not the least of which is the embarrassment of how poorly they performed on that road trip. The Blazers are also banged up right now which is a big reason for their struggles.

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when they have Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time. They are coming off an 18-point road win over the Los Angeles Lakers. They are rested and ready to go as they have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.

Portland is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 95 points or less in two consecutive games. The Blazers have been held to 93, 77 and 84 points in their last three games, which is absolutely terrible in today's NBA. Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* Rams/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most dangerous team in the NFC playoffs that everyone is overlooking.  The Rams got all of their key weapons in Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams healthy for the second half of the season and were dominant once that was the case.  They are actually about the healthiest team in the NFL going into the playoffs, plus they were able to rest starters in Week 18 to be even more fresh and healthy for the wild card round.

The Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens 37-31 (OT).  They went toe-to-toe with the team that many feel like is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.  All the Ravens did after needing a punt return TD in OT to beat the Rams at home is go on to beat the Jaguars 23-7, the 49ers 38-19 and the Dolphins 56-19 in their next three games.  That loss to the Ravens was mighty impressive, and keep in mind the Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 at home earlier this season.

The Rams are humming on offense.  They have scored 26 or more points in each of the last six games started by Stafford.  Now he gets to face his former team and will light up a terrible Detroit defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  I would argue the Rams have the better offense and better defense going into the playoffs.

Dan Campbell made the mistake of trying too hard to win in Week 18 even though he needed the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders to improve their seeding.  What a mistake it turned out to be as star TE Sam LaPorta was lost to a knee injury in a meaningless win over the Vikings.  LaPorta has 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TD this season.  The Lions also lost WR/PR Kalif Raymond to injury in the win.  He has 35 receptions for 489 yards and is their main punt returner.  The Lions won't be as fresh as the Rams either after trying hard in Week 18 and needing to go to the wire with the Vikings after going to the wire with the Cowboys the previous week.

Plays against home teams (Detroit) - with a very good offense that averages 385 or more yards per game, after allowing an average of 400 or more yards per game in their last three games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The back door will always be open if we need it against this Detroit defense.  But I don't think we will.  

The Rams are the better team on both sides and catching 3.5 points to boot.  Home field just isn't worth this much for the Lions, either.  And Sean McVay knows Jared Goff's tendencies more than anyone and will come up with the proper game plan to exploit them.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Washington/UCLA Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington PK

The UCLA Bruins continue to get too much respect for what they did in previous seasons.  But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century.  The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9.

The Bruins hit rock bottom last time out with a 90-44 road loss at Utah. The team looked to have quit on head coach Mick Cronin. It's not going to get any easier for the Utes today against an underrated Washington team.

The Huskies have gone 10-6 this season against the 29th-toughest schedule in the country. They rank 40th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense as a very balanced team. All six of their losses came by 7 points or less, so they are close to being much better than 10-6.

Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread. Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games. UCLA is 1-7 ATS in all home games this season. Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Packers/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7.5

Jordan Love has played like one of the best QB's in the game down the stretch to get his team into the playoffs.  The Packers have won three consecutive games to close out the season and have all the momentum.  Love has been the biggest reason why with a ridiculous 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his final eight games of the season.

The most remarkable part about that is that Love has had different weapons miss time due to injury down the stretch.  But now the Packers are as healthy as they have been from a skill position perspective basically since the beginning of the season.  There's a chance they get Christian Watson back from a hamstring injury as he and Romeo Doubs are the only questionable weapons.

Love will be able to dice up a Dallas defense that is grossly overrated.  The Cowboys haven't been able to stop some of the better offenses they have faced this season.  They gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  They also allowed 42 points to the 49ers earlier this season.

Dallas will get its points too, but the Packers are trending upward defensively right now since they have gotten healthy.  Key players like LB De'Vondre Campbell, LB Quay Walker and CB Jaire Alexander have all missed time this season.  But all three are healthy right now and the Packers are fully healthy on defense and showing what they are capable of.  They held the Vikings to 10 points and the Bears to 9 points in their final two games to compliment Love's brilliance on offense.

The Cowboys have all the pressure on them.  They have heard for years how they just cannot win the big game, and they really haven't.  If they do find a way to win this game, it won't be by more than one score.  The Packers have the goods to take the Cowboys to the wire just like the Lions and Seahawks did in recent games at Dallas with the Lions losing by 1 and the Seahawks by 6.  Detroit accumulated 420 total yards on Dallas and Seattle had 35 points and 406 yards.

Green Bay is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by 28 points or more.  Matt LaFleur is 20-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Green Bay.  Mike McCarthy is 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Cowboys OVER 49.5

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have great quarterbacks and great offenses but suspect defenses.  The books failed to set this total high enough as these teams will easily combine for 50-plus points in this game to cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.

The Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home this season.  The Packers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their final eight games to close out the season.  The lone game they didn't they scored 17 against the Bears in the finale and deserved better, but they kneeled in scoring position at the end and had 432 total yards against a very good Chicago defense.  Love has an 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last eight games and is playing as well as any QB in the league down the stretch.

But the Packers have a suspect defense that allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games before holding both the Vikings and Bears below that number to close the season.  But the Vikings started a 4th-string QB and the Bears aren't very good offensively.  They gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers and 34 to the Bucs the two games prior.  Dallas will get its points in this one.

The Cowboys gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  The Packers can have the same kind of success because they are on the same level as those offenses with the way they have been playing of late.  There's a chance Jordan Love has all of his weapons back this week if Christian Watson returns from a hamstring injury, but he has proven he can move the football and score points no matter who is out there.

It will be perfect conditions inside the dome in Arlington for a shootout.  The OVER is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Dallas with nine of those seeing 50 or more combined points.  Each of the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Packers have seen 58 or more combined points.  Green Bay is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. NFC opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah ML +105

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

I know the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but not all back-to-backs are created equal. They blew out the Raptors 145-113 last night so they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter. They will be plenty fresh and motivated when they host the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They sit at 20-20 this season with a chance to get back above .500.

The Lakers have been grossly overvalued since winning the In-Season Tournament. They are 5-11 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They have six players on the injury report including questionable tags for LeBron, D'Angelo Russell and Cam Reddish heading into this one. They should not be favored on the road over a Jazz team playing as well as anyone right now.

Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season.  The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or worse this season.  Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 57-53 upset home win over No. 2 Houston. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, and that will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated 13.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cowboys off consecutive losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. This is an Oklahoma State team that just has Iowa State's number. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cyclones including two upset road wins by 8 as 6.5-point dogs and by 17 as 4-point dogs.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Iowa State) - a hot team having covered 6 or 7 or their last 8 games ATS who are also winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 91-50 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cyclones. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams coming into the playoffs.  It helped that they rested their starters in Week 18 to essentially get a bye week.  And we all know how good Andy Reid is coming off a bye week.  The Chiefs will respond in a big way, and we will see them put their best foot forward in the Wild Card Round after an up and down season to this point after winning the Super Bow last year.  The Super Bowl hangover was part of it, but they have just been biding their time waiting for the postseason.

The Miami Dolphins are the most injury-ravaged team in the playoffs aside from perhaps the Steelers.  RB Raheem Mostert, RB De'Von Achane, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead and C Liam Eichenberg are all battling injuries on offense, and they were already without starting C Connor Williams.  The defense lost its two best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips.  Now their two backup LB's in Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker suffered season-ending injuries against the Bills in Week 18.  Not to mention, all four starters in the secondary are questionable.  What a mess.

These injuries have played a part in their meltdown to close out the regular season losing by a combined 77-33 to Baltimore and Buffalo.  They gave up 491 total yards to the Ravens and 473 total yards to the Bills.  Now this previously stagnant Chiefs offense is in line for one of its best performances of the season against this soft Miami defense.

Speaking of soft, the Dolphins won't enjoy the weather in Kansas City Saturday night.  It will be single-digit temperatures with negative wind chills and 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH.  I love fading warm weather teams in cold weather games, especially in the playoffs.  Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU in his career in games with freezing temperatures or below.  He has never played in conditions as cold as they will be in Kansas City Saturday night.

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games coming in.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60-75%.  Miami is 0-9 SU & 2-7 ATS since 2017 in cold weather games with temps below 40 degrees.  None of them were as cold as it will be Saturday night.

Miami went to the wire with Buffalo on Sunday Night Football last week while playing all their starters and trying to win the division.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and the schedule makers did them no favors making them play on Saturday on a short week.  The injuries, the tough scheduling spot and the cold weather are going to have the Dolphins falling flat on their faces for a 3rd consecutive week.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6.5

The Baylor Bears have moved their home games to Foster Pavilion where it's like a small school atmosphere with fans right down on the court and a much more hostile atmosphere for road teams. The Bears have been impressive in their first two games here beating Cornell 98-79 as 16-point favorites and BYU 81-72 as 4.5-point favorites.

Now they host a Cincinnati team that is coming off two huge games against BYU and Texas. I don't think the Bearcats will have much left in the tank here for Baylor. This will be their toughest road game this season. They needed OT to beat Howard on the road and lost by 5 at Xavier. They also lost by 14 to Dayton on a neutral, and this team just isn't very good away from home.

Baylor is 11-3 ATS in all games this season. The Bears are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. Cincinnati is 27-50 ATS in its last 77 games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game. Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks -7

The Memphis Grizzlies cannot catch a break. They were playing well when JA Morant and Marcus Smart were back. But now Morant is out for the season, and Smart is out at least six weeks. They were already without Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Derrick Rose.

Now the Grizzlies have Santi Aldama questionable and Desmond Bane just left last night's game with an ankle injury and did not return. I can't imagine Bane will be back for this 2nd of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies are just so short-handed right now.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby from the Raptors. That includes a 128-92 road win at Philadelphia as 5.5-point dogs as four of those five wins have come by 16 points or more. I expect them to crush the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.

New York is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road favorite. Memphis is 4-13 ATS in home games this season. The Knicks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season. Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +3

The Drake Bulldogs are coming off a massive 89-78 home win over Indiana State. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now as they are road favorites at Southern Illinois when they shouldn't be favored at all.

Drake has been very disappointing in its last two road games. The Bulldogs lost outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB. Then they lost outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont.

Now they must take on a Southern Illinois team that has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC. The Salukis are 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season. They beat Belmont by 10, Illinois-Chicago by 12, St. Louis by 39 and also upset Oklahoma State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. Bet Southern Illinois Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +8

The Atlanta Hawks have been grossly overvalued all season. They are 15-22 SU & 9-28 ATS in their 37 games and consistently getting too much respect from oddsmakers. That is the case again tonight as 8-point favorites over Washington.

This is as terrible spot for the Hawks. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 home loss to the Pacers last night. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Hawks after going to OT against the 76ers the game prior. They won't have much left in the tank for the Wizards tonight.

The Wizards have played their best basketball on the road this season going 12-8-1 ATS in their 21 road games. They are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off. They are also fully healthy.

Atlanta is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. Washington is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 road games following six or more consecutive losses. The Wizards are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on TCU +5.5

The TCU Horned Frogs are 8-0 at home this season and coming off a 80-71 win over Oklahoma. That followed up a near upset of Kansas on the road by 2 as 9-point dogs. This Horned Frogs team is better than they get credit for.

They should not be catching 5.5 points at home to Houston. The Cougars have not fared that well on the road this season. They were just upset 57-53 at Iowa State as 2.5-point favorites. They only beat Xavier by 6 as 8.5-point favorites in their previous true road game. They are going to find it tough winning on the Big 12 highway this season.

TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.

Plays on home underdogs or PK (TCU) - a very good shooting team making 48% of their shots or better, while also a dominant rebounding team outrebounding their opponents by 7-plus boards per game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet TCU Saturday.

25* AFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Browns/Texans OVER 43

The Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team with Joe Flacco.  They are a dead nuts OVER team on the road as well.  This total of 43 is too short when you factor in Flacco, Cleveland being on the road and the healthy return of CJ Stroud for Houston.

The Browns are 8-0 OVER on the road this season.  A big reason for that is their defense has been very leaky on the highway.  The Browns allow 29.6 points per game on the road this season, and their road games are averaging 54.0 combined points per game.

The Browns have become very pass-happy with Flacco at QB.  They have attempted 44 or more passes in four of his five starts this season.  The only exception was in the 37-20 win over the Jets in which they were just trying to protect the lead late and ran it more.  They have scored 31 or more points in three of Flacco's last four starts with the lone exception being against a very good Chicago defense at home in tough whether conditions when they only scored 20.

The Texans are humming on offense again with Stroud back healthy.  They scored 26 points against the Titans two weeks ago and 23 against the Colts last week to clinch the AFC South title.  I have no doubt the Texans are going to unleash him against the Browns and use the entire playbook to try and pull off the upset.  This game will be played mostly through the air due to both teams being good against the run, knowing that the weakness of both defenses are more against the pass.

Cleveland played Houston on the road earlier this season on December 24th and 2on 36-22 for 58 combined points.  And that was with Case Keenum at QB for the Texans and Davis Mills replacing him.  The Browns had 364 passing yards in that game and did whatever they wanted to through the air.  They will be able to deploy that same game plan, but this time they will get more resistance from Houston's offense with Stroud under center.  Plus, there's a decent chance Stroud gets a pair of weapons back in WR Noah Brown and WR Robert Woods from injury that they didn't have against Indianapolis.  This game has shootout written all over it inside the dome in perfect conditions in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -2.5

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside 'The Pit'. The Lobos are 8-0 at home this season and will take down the San Diego State Aztecs today.

San Diego State is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 road games this season. The Aztecs only beat San Jose State by 3 as 10-point favorites, lost outright at Grand Canyon by 6 as 2.5-point favorites and only beat UCSD by 1 as 13.5-point favorites. This will be their toughest road test of the season today. Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Raptors/Jazz OVER 235.5

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games overall with 238 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They combined for 246 points with the Clippers, 263 with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last four games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Jazz tonight.

The Jazz are fully healthy right now and are an elite offensive team when that's the case. They have scored 120 or more points in five of their last six games overall. The Raptors have allowed 118 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.

Utah is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games after three straight games outrebounding opponents by 5 boards or more. Toronto is 8-1 OVER off a loss by 6 points or less this season. The Raptors are 15-4 OVER after playing a road game this season. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Raptors and Jazz with 238 or more combined points in each of the last three. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -3

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

We'll gladly take advantage again tonight and back the Jazz as short home favorites over the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are without starting C Jacob Poeltl and their best player in Pascal Siakam is questionable. The Raptors are playing well also, but this is a tough spot for them.

The Raptors will be playing their 6th road game in 10 days here. They just played the Lakers and Clippers in Los Angeles in back-to-back days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz, and they will also be playing in altitude in Salt Lake City tonight to make matters worse.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season. The Jazz are 9-1 ATS in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or worse this season. Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls -3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy and playing well right now. They have won three consecutive games coming in and I expect them to take down the short-handed Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors are without four key players right now in Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Chris Paul and Moses Moody. They are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. Their last two games were particularly concerning as they were upset by the Raptors by 15 at home and blasted by the Pelicans by 36 at home.

Golden State is 2-11 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season. Chicago is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 games as home favorites. Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -8

I like the spot for the Utah Utes tonight. They return home after two disappointing road losses to Arizona State and Arizona. Now the Utes are back home where they are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS and outscoring opponents by 19.1 points per game.

The Utes take a step down in class against a UCLA team that continues to get too much respect for what they did in previous season. But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century. The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites. They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9. They will lose by double-digits to the Utes tonight. Bet Utah Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, Dante Exum and Derrick Lively II tonight. Grant Williams is questionable as well. I don't give them much of a shot of even keeping this game competitive against the New York Knicks tonight without Doncic.

The Knicks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Raptors. They have won all five games by 6 points or more with four of those wins coming by 16 points or more. They have been absolutely dominant, and they are allowing just 97.4 points per game during this winning streak, which is unheard of in today's NBA. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Thunder OVER 233

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games, 235 or more nine times and 248 or more seven of those.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Portland Trail Blazers are more of an OVER team when Anfernee Simons is healthy. He is one of the best young guards in the game. But the Blazers have allowed 126 or more points in four of their last six games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 235.5

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games overall with 238 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They combined for 263 points with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last three games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Clippers tonight.

The Clippers have scored 117 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They put up 117 on Memphis, 121 on Miami, 131 on Phoenix and 138 on Phoenix.  They will hang a big number on the Raptors to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  But the Raptors have scored at least 116 points in nine consecutive games and will get theirs as well.  They have scored 124-plus in five of their last six.

Toronto is 14-4 OVER off a road game this season.  The Clippers are 16-5 OVER in their last 21 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.