Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -2.5

The Charlotte Bobcats (20-61) are tied with the Orlando Magic for the worst record in the league. As most of you remember, they set an NBA record for futility last season by winning the lowest percentage of games in a season in NBA history.

Charlotte doesn't want to be known as the worst team in the league for a second straight season, so it will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight. It has been playing well down the stretch, especially at home.

The Bobcats have won seven of their last nine home games following back-to-back wins over Milwaukee and New York. Cleveland has clearly packed it in, losing five straight and 15 of its last 17 games overall coming in.

Cleveland is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 15-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being a 9-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. San Antonio has absolutely nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in a 96-106 loss at Golden State on Monday. While all three of these players are listed as probable to play tonight, it's only because Greg Popovich wants to make sure they aren't rusty heading into the playoffs.

San Antonio won't be thinking about beating Minnesota tonight, let alone beating it by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread. The Timberwolves realize this is their final game of the season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line because of it.

Minnesota is 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is just 12-21 ATS in the second half of the season this season. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference.

Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points.

I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake.

Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario.

Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight.

I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league.

This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +128

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Philadelphia should not be the dog considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the game. The Phillies were wise to get him this offseason, adding him to what is arguably the best rotation in baseball. Lannan has not disappointed in the early going, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through two starts.

Homer Bailey has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP through two starts for the Reds this season. Bailey has NEVER BEATEN the Phillies, going 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 9.34 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in five career starts against them. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday as they look to put an end to a 4-game losing streak with three of those losses coming by exactly one run. I like their chances given the edge they have on the mound over the Baltimore Orioles in this one.

Matt Moore is one of the best young starters in the game. He's off to a 2-0 start with a 0.00 ERA and 0.971 WHIP while not allowing a single run over 11 2/3 innings in wins over the Rangers and Indians. Moore is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.83 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore.

Chris Tillman is clearly overmatched in this one. The right-hander has posted a 7.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 runs and 19 base runners over 9 innings in games against Boston and Minnesota. Tillman is 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is a very profitable 19-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +200

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value as a 2-to-1 underdog to the Oakland A's tonight. Houston comes in hungry for a victory after dropping its last three. Oakland is overvalued due to its 10-4 start to the season.

Brad Peacock is one of the most underrated starters in the league because not many bettors have even heard of him. This guy has dominated in limited action, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA over four starts and one relief appearance in the majors.

This play falls into a system that is 60-53 (53.1%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game players $51,500. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (HOUSTON) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after scoring 2 runs or less. Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it.

Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia Phillies +142

The Cincinnati Reds have no business being this heavily favored tonight over the Philadelphia Phillies. That's especially the case considering the Phillies have the edge on the mound in this one.

Kyle Kendrick is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season and 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati. Sure, those numbers won't blow you away, but when you compare them to Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, they are better. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts this season, and 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against Philadelphia.

Kendrick is a very profitable 31-13 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. The Phillies are 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts as an underdog. Philadelphia is 10-4 in its last 14 games as an underdog. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Royals/Braves Interleague No-Brainer on Kansas City +170

The Kansas City Royals are showing their best value of the season Tuesday night as a huge road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. I'll gladly take advantage and back these improved Royals, who are off to a solid 7-5 start this season.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to its 11-1 start, which includes a 9-game winning streak coming in. The Braves just swept 2012 NL East champ Washington last series in three games, setting them up for a huge letdown spot heading into Game 1 of this series with Kansas City.

Jeremy Guthrie may be the most underrated starter in the entire league. The right-hander is picking up right where he left off last season, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.026 WHIP through his first two starts this year. Guthrie is 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last 13 starts, of which Kansas City has won 12. That makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing Gurthrie and the Royals tonight. Take Kansas City Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Indians OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians tonight. I look for a slug fest as both starting pitchers are below-average in this league to say the least.

Boston's Felix Doubront has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in one start this season, and he's 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in two career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez remains terrible, going 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in two starts this season. The right-hander is 1-2 with a massive 7.84 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox.

Doubront is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 15-4 OVER (+10.8 Units) after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Jimenez is 20-9 OVER (+10.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call.

Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight.

Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night.

The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards get the nod Monday as a road underdog to the Brooklyn Nets in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some added insurance in this one folks.

The Wizards have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 45-34-1 ATS in all games this year. Off four straight losses with three coming against playoff contenders, the Wizards will be hungry for a win tonight.

Brooklyn has no reason to even be motivated to play this game Monday. That's because it has already wrapped up the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is locked into the No. 4 seed as it cannot move up or down.

Making sure they're fresh for the playoffs is a much bigger priority. Deron Williams is one of several players who could be rested tonight against the Wizards, so I have no doubt that the Wizards will be putting the more talented team on the floor.

Plus, Washington will be the much fresher team as it will be playing on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a loss to Philadelphia. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days following an 87-93 loss at Toronto Sunday.

The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons will run away with a victory tonight at home over the Philadelphia 76ers. I like how the Pistons are playing down the stretch as they clearly are not packing it in just yet. They are playing out their season.

That's evident by the fact that the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have also won three straight coming in with victories over the Bulls, Cavs and Bobcats by a combined 41 points.

Detroit comes in well-rested on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a 113-93 home victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Philadelphia is a tired team as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after a 91-77 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.

The 76ers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 0 days rest. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with Detroit Monday.

15* Phillies/Reds ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia Phillies -118

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Cincinnati Reds Monday. They should be a much heavier favorite considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Cliff Lee remains one of the best starters in baseball, and he's proving it once again in 2013. Lee is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.600 WHIP through two starts this season. He has allowed just two earned runs and 10 base runners over 16 2/3 innings in wins over the Braves and Mets.

Bronson Arroyo is not off to the best start this year, going 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA while allowing seven earned runs over 12 innings. This is one team he hates facing as Arroyo is 2-7 with a 6.33 ERA in 11 career starts against Philadelphia. Lee has allowed two earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati.

The Phillies are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 14-5 in Lee's last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. Cincinnati is 5-11 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. Philadelphia is 38-15 in the last 53 meetings, including 20-8 in its last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Take the Phillies Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value at home against the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in a huge letdown spot in this one, and I don't even expect them to show up as a result.

New York is surely going to rest several of its key players after clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 90-80 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Sunday. Now, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days short-handed.

Carmelo Anthony is expected to rest. New York - still without big men Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby - is ready to get some rest.

The Bobcats have lost 14 straight and 21 of 22 on the road, but they're playing well at home toward season's end. Charlotte beat Milwaukee 95-85 on Saturday for its sixth win in eight games at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. Bet Charlotte Monday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have a lot to play for, and I look for a defensive battle because of it.

Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio is battling it out with Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

This play falls into a system that is 75-35 (68.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Orioles/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York -115

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Baltimore Orioles Sunday night. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at home behind the underrated Hiroki Kuroda.

Kuroda went 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA over 33 starts with the Yankees last season. The reason he's underrated is the fact that he is off to a slow start this season, but I have no doubt he'll get back on track against the Orioles tonight.

Kuroda is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore. Kuroda is 17-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as both teams are fighting to earn that coveted No. 2 seed in the East to get home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

This play falls into a system that is 130-67 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, on Sunday games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +112

After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, I look for the Los Angeles Dodgers to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 Saturday. I really like their chances with the underrated Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound tonight.

Most bettors aren't familiar with Ryu because he is making his MLB debut this season, but he's a lot better starter than he gets credit for. Ryu is already proving that, going 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.185 WHIP over two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 25-7 in their last 32 Saturday games. Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last 9 games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker.

With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84).

Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite.

Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston.

Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Mets UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this NL East contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins. I look for both Cole Hamels and Jose Fernandez to shut down the opposition in an absolute pitcher's duel.

Hamels sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 24 career starts against Miami. In his last two starts against the Marlins, Hamels has allowed just one earned run over 16 innings. Fernandez is one of the best young starters in the game, and he doesn't yet get the respect from oddsmakers that he deserves.

The UNDER is 25-9-1 in Hamels' last 35 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Marlins last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -117

Rarely will you ever get Justin Verlander at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage and back the 2011 AL Cy Young and MVP winner at this discounted rate against the Oakland A's Saturday.

Verlander is off to another solid start in 2013, going 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.217 WHIP over two starts against the Twins and Yankees. The right-hander simply owns Oakland, going 10-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 16 career starts.

Verlander has been untouchable in his last five starts against the A's. The right-hander has gone 5-0 with a miniscule 0.49 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 37 innings in those five outings. Brett Anderson is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his solid start, which has come against the lowly Mariners and Astros.

The Tigers are 49-18 in Verlander's last 67 starts as a favorite. The A's are 0-5 in Anderson's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs Oakland. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -125

The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory this afternoon against the Cleveland Indians. They have lost four straight coming in, and I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Chris Sale today.

Sale remains one of the most underrated starters in the league after despite posting an excellent 2012 campaign. The left-hander is off to a 1-0 start this season, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in the process.

Sale is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland. The White Sox are 3-0 against the money line in those three starts having never lost. Sale has allowed just five earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in those three outings. Take the White Sox Saturday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -147

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite tonight with 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back Kershaw and the Dodgers at this generous price against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

One of the best things that could have happened to the Dodgers last night, happened. This is a team that has brought in a ton of new faces over the last 365 days, so clubhouse chemistry was a concern. They needed to get in a brawl and fight for each other, and that's what happened against the Padres last night. I look for this experience to bring this team closer together going forward, starting tonight.

Kershaw is now 63-37 with a 2.75 ERA for his career after going 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA in 2012 and 2011, respectively. Kershaw is off to a tremendous start in 2013, going 2-0 while allowing just seven base runners and no earned runs over 16 innings in victories over the Giants and Pirates. The left-hander is 7-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 14 career starts against Arizona.

The Dodgers are 38-15 in Kershaw's last 53 starts overall. Los Angeles is 21-7 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Dodgers Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Jazz UNDER 196

This is a very important game for the Utah Jazz tonight as they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I look for them to be timid offensively, but to be at the top of their game defensively with what's at stake.

In fact, that has appeared to be the case with the Jazz over the last week as they are really feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Utah's last three games have resulted in an 80-90 loss to the Thunder for 170 combined points, a 97-90 victory at Golden State for 187 combined points, and a 95-83 victory over New Orleans for 178 combined points.

This recent low-scoring trend, plus the head-to-head meetings thus far with the Timberwolves this season, has me backing the UNDER. Utah beat Minnesota 106-84 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd for 190 combined points. The Jazz also won in Minnesota 97-93 on February 13th for 190 combined points.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios.

The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out.

Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well.

When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.

The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The New York Knicks just had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 111-118 (OT) loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and likely win this game outright.

New York comes in a very tired team as this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 7th game in 11 days for the Knicks. This is a short-handed team as it is with all of its injury problems. Raymond Felton (knee) is questionable, while Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Rasheed Wallace are all expected to miss tonight's game.

Cleveland has played New York very tough this season, but it has come up short in both meetings. The Cavaliers lost 102-103 at New York on December 15th in their first meeting, and 97-102 at home on March 4th in their second. There's no question that Cleveland wants revenge tonight. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.

New York is 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Cleveland is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -116

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite over the Miami Marlins tonight in Game 1 of this NL East series. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price Friday.

Miami (1-8) is clearly the worst team in the big leagues. It is hitting just .217 and scoring 1.8 runs/game through its first nine games of the year. That includes a .143 average and 0.7 runs/game in its three home games.

John Lannan has been one of the most underrated starters in the league for years. He allowed just three earned runs and five base runners in a 4-3 victory over Kansas City on April 6th in his first start of the season.

Ricky Nolasco is considered the 'ace' of Miami's staff, which just goes to show how terrible its staff really is. Nolasco has posted a 4.48 ERA or worse in six of his first seven years in the majors. Simply put, that's terrible.

Miami is 0-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 29-14 in their last 43 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 19-45 in their last 64 games as a home underdog. Take the Phillies.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers. With both teams having a lot to play for, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight when they meet up.

Indiana is just two games behind New York for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It is also trying to hold off No. 4 Brooklyn, which is trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Given these scenarios, the defensive intensity is going to be high tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The two meetings between the Pacers and Nets this season have seen 173 and 183 combined points. The final two meetings of last season saw 184 and 181 combined points. They have not topped 184 combined points while averaging 180.3 points/game in their last four meetings.

Brooklyn has really picked it up defensively of late, allowing just 91.8 points/game in its last five games overall. Indiana allows just 90.2 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home this season.

The Pacers are 19-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last 5 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Nets last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder realize that they control their own destiny. Tied with the San Antonio Spurs with the best record in the West at 57-21, the Thunder own the tiebreaker. That means they just need to win out and they'll get the No. 1 seed in the West.

Golden State has a lot less to play for as it's either going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the West, which isn't a huge difference. The Warriors are being overvalued here because they have won four of five coming in.

All four of those victories came against non-playoff teams in the Blazers, Hornets, Suns and Timberwolves with three of them coming at home. Their lone loss was a 90-97 setback at home against the Utah Jazz, who were the only team that had something to play for during this run.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels come into this series finale with AL West rival Oakland highly motivated for a victory. They have been embarrassed in the first two games of this series, losing a combined 10-20.

I like the Angels' chances of salvaging a Game 3 victory tonight given the edge they have on the mound. Jason Vargas is one of the most underrated starters in the league, and he was an excellent addition this offseason.

Vargas was brilliant in his first start of the year, allowing just one earned run on 5 2/3 innings of a 2-3 loss at Texas, which is no small feat. Vargas has posted a 3.31 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 13 career starts against Oakland as well.

Vargas is a very profitable 22-14 (+14.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet Los Angeles Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +143

The Chicago White Sox come into this Game 3 with the Washington Nationals highly motivated for a victory. They lost the first two games of this series, and now they want to salvage it with a Game 3 victory tonight.

Given the way both of these starters performed in their openers, I certainly believe the White Sox are showing excellent value in this one. Dylan Axelrod went 5 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run in a 4-3 victory over Seattle on April 6th.

Dan Haren carried over his poor performances from last season, giving up six earned runs and four homers over 4 innings of a 15-0 loss at Cincinnati on April 5th. He's simply washed up and far past his prime, and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

Haren is a woeful 4-10 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 31-14 in their last 45 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 5-1 in Axelrod's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the White Sox Thursday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +153

The Seattle Mariners should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league unless Felix Hernandez is on the mound. That's especially the case with Blake Beavan on the mound for them tonight.

Beavan is 16-17 with a 4.46 ERA over his three-year career with Seattle. He has opened the 2013 campaign poorly, allowing five earned runs over 5 innings in an 8-7 victory at Chicago.

While Brad Peacock has only made three career starts before, he has made the most of them. He is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in those three outings. The Astros come in with a ton of confidence after their massive 16-9 victory over the Mariners last night.

This play falls into a system that is 33-12 (73.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), after a loss by 6 runs or more. Take the Astros Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5

This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle.

I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks.

Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points.

Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

The Minnesota Twins come into this game with the Kansas City Royals highly motivated for a victory. That's because they have dropped the first two games of this series, and they are looking to salvage it and avoid the sweep with a Game 3 victory.

I like their chances of getting Game 3 tonight considering that Kansas City starter Wade Davis has never proven that he can handle starting in this league. He struggled Friday at Philadelphia in his first start since 2011, giving up four runs on nine hits and exiting down 4-0 after four innings.

Minnesota is a very profitable 24-22 (+13.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 2-10 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Twins Wednesday.

20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN.

Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +153

Off a 1-run loss to the Washington Nationals in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Chicago White Sox to bounce back with a Game 2 victory tonight. You can't beat this price on the Sox, either.

Gavin Floyd pitched very well in his opening start against Kansas City on April 4th, allowing just two earned runs and five base runners over 6 innings. Floyd's last start at Washington was a gem in 2010 as he allowed just one earned run over 8 innings of a 2-1 Chicago victory.

This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL).

This play falls into another system that is 69-67 (50.7%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game bettors a whopping $59,900. It tells us to bet against home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (WASHINGTON) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season. Roll with the White Sox Wednesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +146

The Miami Marlins will be hungry for a win tonight as they look to avoid getting swept by the Atlanta Braves. They lost the first two games of this series by a combined three runs, and I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 3.

Alex Sanabia is the reason for Miami's lone victory this season. He went 6 shutout innings in a 7-5 victory at New York on April 5th in his lone start this season. Sanabia sports a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta. Mike Minor is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA in seven career starts against Miami.

This play falls into a system that is 63-34 (64.9%) since 1997 with $1,000/game bettors winning $31,400. It tells us to bet on home teams (MIAMI) - off 4 straight losses vs. division rivals against opponent off a one run win over a division rival. Take the Marlins Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -125

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost their first two series of the season to the Braves and Royals 1-2 each. They have a chance to win their first series of the season against the New York Mets tonight, and I fully expect them to take advantage.

I especially like the Phillies' chances of winning Game 3 tonight considering the edge they have on the mound. Kyle Kendrick is 5-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 career starts against New York, while Jeremy Hefner is 1-1 with a 15.00 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia, both of which came last year.

The Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Phillies are 44-21 in their last 65 Wednesday games. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts vs. NL East opponents. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs.

Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them.

Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win.

Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays +115

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to Texas. I like them to take Game 3 and salvage this series will avoiding the sweep.

I especially like the Rays' chances with young phenom Matt Moore on the mound. The left-hander was brilliant in his first start, pitching 6 shutout innings while striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over Cleveland on April 5th.

Moore shut down the Rangers in his lone career start against them, pitching seven shutout innings of a 9-0 victory at Texas on 9/30/2011. Rangers starter Derek Holland sports a 5.03 ERA in nine career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa is a very profitable 25-20 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Kansas City Royals Tuesday. They'll be hungry to bounce back following a blown late lead in the 8th inning yesterday to fall to the Royals 3-1 in Game 1 of this series.

I like their chances with the underrated Mike Pelfrey on the mound. The right-hander went 5 1/3 innings while not allowing a single earned run to pick up the win in an 8-2 victory over Detroit in his first start of the season on April 4th.

Pelfrey has never faced Kansas City, giving him an advantage. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen Jeremy Guthrie seven times, including once last year. Guthrie allowed five earned runs over 5 innings of a 5-7 home loss to the Twins on July 22nd.

Minnesota is 19-6 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 1-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Twins Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Grizzlies UNDER 186.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this contest tonight folks.

Memphis is a lockdown defensive team that won't allow the Charlotte Bobcats to exceed 80 points tonight. The Grizzlies only allow 89.7 points/game overall, including 87.6 points/game at home. The Bobcats score just 90.7 points/game on the road this year.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The last three meetings between the Bobcats and Grizzlies have seen 181, 165 and 178 combined points. That's an average of 174.7 points/game, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall as they have combined with each of their last five opponents for 185 or less points. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Miami Heat don't have much to play for the rest of the way after already clinching the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference over a week ago. They can still afford to lose a couple more games before having to worry about losing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs against the Western Conference.

This scenario is why I believe that the Heat have been resting players down the stretch. They don't really care about the outcome of these games or they wouldn't do it. Once again, they are expected to rest Dwyane Wade (out), and they are likely to rest Chris Bosh (doubtful) as well.

Milwaukee has a lot to play for tonight. It can still catch No. 7 Boston in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even if it doesn't catch the Celtics, it wants to send a message to the Miami Heat that they will be in for a series if the Bucks have to settle for the No. 8 spot.

The Bucks have already proven they can play with the Heat this year, winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. They also put up a fight on the road on November 21st, falling 106-113 as a 9.5-point underdog. In fact, Milwaukee is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Miami.

Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central opponents. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +10

The Washington Wizards represent my strongest release for the entire 2012-13 season Tuesday night as they travel to face the New York Knicks. Every team gets up to play inside of Madison Square Garden, and the Wizards will relish the experience tonight and make the most of it.

New York comes in way overvalued due to its 12-game winning streak heading into this one. It has also gone 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and now oddsmakers have been forced to set the number so high that the Knicks cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves.

This is a huge letdown spot for New York. That's because it is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in a 125-120 road victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. That game was nationally televised on ABC Sunday afternoon.

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that it is a very profitable 45-31 ATS in all games this year. The Wizards want to even the season series tonight after dropping two of their first three to New York. They won't have any problem getting motivated to try and put an end to this 10-game winning streak.

The Wizards are a sensational 17-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. This trend just goes to show how they take payback personally, and 85% of the time they have come back to cover the spread against these opponents. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

15* White Sox/Nationals Interleague No-Brainer on Chicago +140

The Chicago White Sox get the nod Tuesday in Game 1 of this series with the Washington Nationals. I believe they are showing too good of value to pass up tonight in what is a very evenly-matched game on the mound.

Jack Peavy bounced back nicely last season to prove that he's still got it, going 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over 32 starts. He's off to a great start this year as well, allowing just one earned run over 6 innings of a 5-2 victory over Kansas City on April 3rd.

Peavy is 6-2 with a 1.63 ERA in eight interleague starts since joining the White Sox in July 2009 and has earned two wins over Washington in that span. He tossed a three-hit shutout in his most recent game in the nation's capital on June 19, 2010, and is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three starts there.

Gio Gonzalez has struggled with the White Sox. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago. The White Sox are 15-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates +140

The Pittsburgh Pirates get the nod as a nice-sized road underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. I look for the Pirates to come in the more motivated team and wanting this one more due to their 1-5 start, while the Diamondbacks are 5-1 to start the year.

I like Pittsburgh's chances of picking up its second win of the season with underrated left-hander Wandy Rodriquez getting the ball. He went 6 2/3 shutout innings of a 3-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs on April 3rd to give the Pirates their lone win of the year.

This play falls into a system that is 42-17 (71.2%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game bettors $40,900. It tells us to bet against home teams (ARIZONA) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more. Take the Pirates Monday.

20* Michigan/Louisville NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Louisville -3.5

The Louisville Cardinals will prove that they are the best team in college basketball and deserved of the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament tonight. I look for them to win and cover against overmatched Michigan in this one.

The Cardinals just have something special going because of the injury to teammate Kevin Ware. They have really pulled closer together as a team, which helped them overcome a hard-fought game against Wichita State in the Final Four. They simply appear to be a team of destiny at this point.

I believe that only having one day to prepare for their opponent will benefit Louisville more than Michigan in this one. That's because the Cardinals are a tougher team to prepare for as they are the best pressing team in the country. They are forcing an average of 18 turnovers/game this season.

Louisville is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Cardinals. Bet Louisville Monday.

15* AL Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays +145

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Texas is in a big letdown spot here after coming off a 2-1 series win over division rival Los Angeles. That's especially the case after a victory in Game 3 on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

I believe this line has been inflated just because of how the two starting pitchers faired in their first outings. Jeremy Hellickson isn't getting the respect he deserves after allowing five runs over 6 1/3 innings to Baltimore on April 3rd.

At the same time, Alexi Ogando is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to blanking the Houston Astros over 6 1/3 innings of a 4-0 win on April 3rd. The Astros are arguably the worst team in the league, so that outing was far from impressive.

Hellickson has pitched well in three career starts against Texas, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Ogando sports a 10.11 ERA and 2.622 WHIP following his lone career start against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are a ridiculous 12-2 (+14.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, Tampa Bay is 15-4 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rays Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -115

You may never get another opportunity to back Roy Halladay at this kind of price the rest of the season. I'm going to take advantage and back the Phillies, who will be hungry following a 2-4 start to the season.

Philadelphia has lost Game 1 in each of its first two series this season, and it realizes that grabbing a Game 1 victory tonight will be essential to go on and win its first series of the year. I like its chances against the lowly New York Mets.

The Mets are way overvalued right now due to their 4-2 start. Well, that 4-2 start has come against arguably the two worst teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins.

While Halladay only last 3.1 innings in his first start this year, he did strike out 9 batters, which was an MLB record. That shows he's still got it. Plus, the former Cy Young winner is 9-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Mets.

Halladay is 25-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.1 to 3.8 on average in this spot. Take the Phillies Monday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +132

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013 season. That has proven to be the case in the early going as they are off to a solid 4-2 start despite being an underdog in every game they have played in.

What's most impressive about that 4-2 start is the fact that it has come against two AL playoff teams from last year in Detroit and Baltimore. That includes a 3-2 victory over Detroit on April 3rd in Kevin Correia's lone start of the year.

Correia pitched seven innings while allowing just eight base runners and two earns runs to help lead Minnesota to victory. Ervin Santana struggled in his first start, giving up four earned runs over six innings in a 2-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox on April 3rd, also giving up three homers in the loss.

Minnesota is 8-1 against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 4-16 against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

The Royals are 0-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Correia is a very profitable 23-19 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +5.5

The Utah Jazz are showing excellent value as a 5.5-point underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is a much more important game for the Jazz (40-37), who trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Jazz have saved their best basketball of the season for last. In fact, they have won six of their last seven games overall. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This team is handling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well.

The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 7-17 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Lakers +5

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value as a 5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. This is a much more important game for the Lakers, and because they want it more, they'll cover this spread, likely winning outright.

The Lakers are 40-36 on the season, which has them 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have actually been playing their best basketball of the season of late with the stakes at their highest.

The Lakers have won three straight heading into this one with victories over the Kings (103-98), Mavericks (101-81) and Grizzlies (86-84). After losing the first three meetings of the season with the Clippers, the Lakers will clearly be out for revenge today.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells you to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Take the Lakers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -117

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite today against the Kansas City Royals with ace Cole Hamels on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

Hamels, 4-3 with a 3.27 ERA over 10 interleague starts since 2010, will be making his first career appearance versus Kansas City (2-3). Having never seen Hamels, the Royals are at a huge disadvantage.

Kansas City is 1-9 against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are 25-62 in their last 87 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 82-40 in their last 122 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Philadelphia Sunday.

20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5

I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse.

I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game.

Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game.

Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country.

The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance.

Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 193.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle between these two solid defensive teams tonight.

A big reason I'm backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that the Spurs are expected to be without Tony Parker (shin) and Manu Ginobli (hamstring), which are two of their best scorers.

Also, both teams have been prone to the UNDER of late. Atlanta is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall, combining with its opponents to average 187.3 points/game. San Antonio is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games, combining with its opponents to average 181.5 points/game.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 191, 188 and 187 points.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The Hawks are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots this season. Atlanta is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in both team's last four games overall, and we have a combined 30-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Philadelphia Phillies -130

After a 1-3 start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. That's especially the case after blowing a 4-0 lead to the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.

John Lannan, Philadelphia's 5th starter, is a big reason why I believe it has one of the best rotations in baseball. The left-hander has been underrated throughout his career, going 42-52 with a 4.01 ERA.

The Phillies have a huge edge on the mound tonight with Lannan over Luis Mendoza, who is 14-19 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over his six-year career between Texas and Kansas City. It's amazing this guy is still around with how poorly he has performed throughout his career.

Kansas City is 4-18 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are 27-56 in their last 83 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Kansas City is 25-61 in its last 86 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today.

However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis.

This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all.

In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.

Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5

While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland.

Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge.

The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th.

Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process.

In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak.

Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8

The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year.

Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight.

The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times.

I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +115

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated heading into this series with the San Francisco Giants. I look for them to win Game 1 today because of it.

The Cardinals want revenge from losing to the Giants in the NLCS in 2012. In fact, St. Louis had a 3-1 lead before losing the final three games of that series while not scoring a single run in the process. It's payback time in Game 1 today folks.

St. Louis is having no problem at the plate in the early going, scoring a combined 17 runs in a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks to open the season. San Francisco, meanwhile, was held to a combined 8 runs in its opening series with the Dodgers.

I believe the Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Jake Westbrook over Barry Zito, who is getting way too much respect in the early going after coming through clutch in the postseason last year. I believe Zito's performance was more of an aberration, because this guy has been terrible for a few years now.

In six years with the Giants, Zito has gone 58-69 with a whopping 4.47 ERA. He hasn't finished with better than a 4.03 ERA in any of his six seasons in a San Francisco uniform. Westbrook went 13-11 with a 3.97 ERA for the Cardinals last season.

The Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 games following an off day. St. Louis is 4-1 in Westbrook's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Westbrook has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his four career starts against San Francisco. St. Louis is 20-7 against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Kansas City Royals today. This is a team that is undervalued heading into the season coming off a sub-par 81-win season in 2012.

Many people believe that the Kansas City Royals are going to be better this season, but I'm not one of those people. However, they are overvalued as a result. They are off to a poor start, scoring a combined 5 runs while losing two of three to the Chicago White Sox in their opening series.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and he's the reason why the Phillies will have arguably the best rotation in baseball this season. Kendrick has gone 54-42 with a 4.30 ERA in his career, including 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 2011, and 11-12 with a 3.90 ERA in 2012.

The Royals traded for James Shields and Wade Davis this offseason. It was great to get Shields, but Davis was basically a throw-in. This guy has never posted better than a 4.07 ERA in a full season as a starter in the big leagues.

The Phillies are 51-23 in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Philadelphia is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 road games. Kansas City is 16-35 in its last 51 interleague games as an underdog. Bet the Phillies Friday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks have fought very hard to get back in position to make a run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for that final spot, and they aren't about to give up now.

Dallas catches the Denver Nuggets in a great spot tonight. Denver is coming off a big road win over the Utah Jazz (113-96) last night as it shot a ridiculous 56.2% from the field. That's the second straight game that it has shot better than 56%. The Nuggets are overvalued as a result, and they'll be tired playing the second of a back-to-back as well.

Home-court advantage means absolutely nothing in this series. In fact, a look at the recent history indicates that you actually want to be the road team. The visitor has won seven of the last nine meetings overall while going a superb 8-1 ATS. Dallas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Denver with its only loss coming by a single point.

The Mavericks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Mavericks are 25-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 13-2 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

25* Big Ten vs. Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa Hawkeyes -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have been undervalued all season, especially toward the end of the year. That's the case once again tonight as they take on the Baylor Bears in the NIT Championship.

I have been saying throughout this tournament that Iowa is the best team in the NIT, and that will prove to be true as it destroys the overmatched Bears tonight. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall as oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve in 10 straight games, and you can make that 11 straight tonight.

While Iowa has posted four double-digit victories in a row to reach the Championship Game, Baylor has escaped with a couple close wins against Arizona State (89-68) and BYU (76-70) to get here. Even its 11-point win over Providence (79-68) was a 3-point game with about 4 minutes to go.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Iowa and Baylor have faced two of the same teams this year in Iowa State and Northwestern. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 against those two teams while outscoring them by an average of 14.2 points/game. The Bears are 0-3 against those two teams, getting outscored by 5.7 points/game.

Iowa is 14-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Iowa is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games. These three trends combine for a 33-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* MLB GAME OF THE NIGHT on Philadelphia Phillies +116

The Philadelphia Phillies will be very hungry for a victory tonight when they take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of this series. They have dropped the first two games to their NL East rival, so you can bet they won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

Cliff Lee was the most unlucky starter in the league last year as he went 0-5 through his first 13 outings and didn't get his first victory until July. He took his frustration out on the rest of the league, going 4-2 with a 1.44 ERA while walking three and striking out 56 over his final eight starts.

Lee has owned the Braves recently, going 3-1 with a 0.95 ERA in his last five matchups with three walks and 37 strikeouts. Kris Medlen has posted a 4.09 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia, and he was one of the most lucky starters in the league last year. He's being overvalued tonight as a result, while Lee is being undervalued.

Philadelphia is 9-1 against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by 2.8 runs per game in this spot. Roll with the Phillies Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are battling the Denver Nuggets for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. These teams are currently tied at 50-24 on the season, but the Nuggets own the tiebreaker. Denver would be the No. 3 seed, while Memphis would be the No. 5 if the season were to end today.

Playing with home-court advantage in the first round in mind, Memphis has proceeded to win three straight games over Houston, Minnesota and San Antonio heading into this one. While the Grizzlies have a ton to play for, the Blazers have nothing.

Portland has clearly quit on its season by going 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. What makes it so evident is the fact that all five losses have come by double-digits to Oklahoma City (83-103), Brooklyn (93-111), Utah (95-105), Golden State (98-125) and Utah (102-112) again.

This play falls into a system that is 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Angels/Reds Interleague No-Brainer on Los Angeles +118

You will not get the Los Angeles Angels as an underdog in many occasions this season. I took advantage in their Game 1 victory over Cincinnati, and I'm going to ride them again as an even bigger dog this time in their Game 2 showdown tonight.

C.J. Wilson comes into this season undervalued after a poor finish to the second half last year. That poor finish is solely attributed to bone spurs in his elbow, which have been removed. I look for Wilson to return to his old dominant self tonight.

The left-hander is looking to bounce back after going 4-5 with a 5.54 ERA in 16 post-All-Star break outings last year, finishing 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA in his debut season with Los Angeles.

"If last year's my down year, in a nine-year cycle, and it's the worst year I have, perspective-wise, I think a lot of pitchers would take those results," Wilson said. "Not me. I'm not happy with that."

Cincinnati's Mat Latos is a notorious slow starter. He went 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA last April, dropping to 2-8 with a 5.73 ERA in 13 career starts during that month.

The Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Los Angele is 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Angels Wednesday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies +123

The Philadelphia Phillies will be hungry to bounce back from their 5-7 opening day loss to the Atlanta Braves on Monday. I look for them to get their first win of the season at a great price tonight with Roy Halladay on the mound.

Halladay is being undervalued due to a shaky spring and an injury-plagued 2012 campaign. He has put both of those things behind him, and this fierce competitor will be on top of his game tonight to prove his naysayers wrong.

He'll be up against Paul Maholm, who is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. Maholm has posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in nine career starts against Philadelphia.

Halladay is 71-48 (+23.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. The Phillies are 52-23 in Halladay's last 75 starts overall. Philadelphia is 45-14 in Halladay's last 59 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors come in highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Washington Wizards. Toronto has lost six of its last seven coming in with four of those losses coming against Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Miami, Atlanta and New York (twice).

The main reason the Raptors will be motivated tonight, though, is the fact that they just lost at Washington 92-109 on March 30th just four days ago. While Toronto wants payback, the Wizards will have a hard time getting motivated to beat them again.

Washington is not only in a huge letdown spot for that reason, but also because it is coming off a 90-86 home victory over the Chicago Bulls last night. It will now be a tired team as well playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.

The Wizards are 7-23 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home meetings with Washington. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +142

The Minnesota Twins are hungry for their first victory of the season after a 2-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day Monday. The Tigers are one of the most overvalued teams in the league, and that is evident with this line.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is one of the most undervalued teams in the league due to finishing last in the AL Central last season. This team will be undervalued early in the season, and it still has enough talent in Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and company to win games in this league.

Kevin Correia has been an underrated starter his entire career. Correia is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit. Meanwhile, Detroit's Anibal Sanchez is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota, both of which occurred last year.

Detroit is just 27-33 (-16.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Correia is 86-72 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. Take the Twins Wednesday.

15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -107

Hyun-Jin Ryu makes his MLB debut tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Once he dominates the San Francisco Giants in this one, we may never get him at this kind of price again the rest of the year. I'll gladly take advantage and bay Ryu and the Dodgers at this generous price tonight.

Ryu agreed to a $36 million, six-year contract with the Dodgers after they bid $25.7 million to win exclusive rights to negotiate with him. The 25-year-old went 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA in six starts and one relief outing in the spring.

San Francisco has never seen Ryu before, which is a huge advantage for him. Los Angeles has seen Madison Bumgarner plenty to know what he's got. Bumgarner sports a 4.07 ERA in April starts throughout his career, which is his highest in any month.

The Dodgers are 32-11 against the money line in home games after allowing 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are 3-8 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts as an underdog. The Dodgers are 41-18 in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Los Angeles Tuesday.

15* Iowa/Maryland NIT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT. They come from the Big Ten, which has obviously shown that it is the best conference in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa finished with a .500 record in Big Ten play this year.

The Hawkeyes have been on a mission to prove that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament by winning the NIT. They continue that mission tonight while looking for their 4th straight dominant victory.

Iowa has beaten Indiana State (68-52), Stony Brook (75-63) and Virginia (75-64) en route to the semifinals. That win against the Cavaliers came on the road, and that's the same Cavaliers team that beat Maryland TWICE during the regular season.

Iowa is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Iowa is 13-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. These four trends combine for a 36-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday.

20* BYU/Baylor NIT Tuesday No-Brainer on BYU +3

The BYU Cougars are showing excellent value as a 3-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Semifinals tonight. I fully expect the Cougars to win this game outright and reach to the Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

BYU (24-11) is one of the most underrated teams in the country. After posting double-digit home victories over Washington (90-79) and Mercer (90-71), it went on the road and knocked off Southern Miss (79-62) as a 5-point underdog in yet another blowout.

The Cougars want revenge from a 64-79 loss at Baylor way back on December 21st in their first meeting of the season. "We're not so excited to play Baylor," BYU coach Dave Rose said. "We played Baylor in December and they handled us pretty well."

This has been a much-improved Cougars team since that defeat. You'll get to witness three of the most underrated players in the country in Tyler Haws (21.6 PPG), Brandon Davies (17.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Matt Carlino (11.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) take it to Baylor in this one.

Baylor is 0-7 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cougars. Bet BYU Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to win in a blowout due to the level of intensity and execution they bring to the court tonight.

The Clippers will be hungry to bounce back from a tough 1-3 road trip that features losses at Dallas, San Antonio and Houston. That includes an 81-98 loss to the Rockets last time out on Saturday, which really leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Los Angeles is dangerously close to losing out on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, it would be the No. 4 seed if the season were to end today, just 0.5 games ahead of the No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies.

The Pacers come in overvalued due to their current 4-game winning streak coming in, which includes three straight road wins over Houston, Dallas and Phoenix. They'll run out of gas here playing their 4th road game in 6 days against a Clippers team that simply wants it more.

Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Central division opponents this season, winning by 14.3 points/game. Indiana is 4-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Cardinals/Diamondbacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis +105

The St. Louis Cardinals have the edge on the mound tonight with Adam Wainwright over Ian Kennedy, and I'll back them as an underdog because of it. Wainwright is now a full two years removed from elbow surgery, and he just signed a new $97.5 million contract with St. Louis.

While Wainwright's numbers weren't as dominant as they have been in year's past (15-13, 4.00 ERA, 1.254 WHIP) in 2012, he was much stronger in the second half. The right-hander is 80-48 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 214 games pitched for the Cardinals.

After a dominant 2011 campaign in which he got all the breaks, Arizona's Ian Kennedy came back down to reality last year. He posted worse numbers than Wainwright, going 15-12 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.301 WHIP over 33 starts.

Wainwright is 5-2 with a 2.27 ERA in seven career starts against Arizona, while Kennedy is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis.

Wainwright is 19-9 (+13.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. Wainwright is 25-6 (+19.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. Roll with the Cardinals Monday.

15* Spurs/Grizzlies NBA Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following an embarrassing defeat last night. Playing without Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat went into San Antonio and stole a 98-96 victory.

You can bet that Gregg Popovich's team will come back hungry for a win tonight to make amends. That's especially the case considering the Spurs are just 1.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the West.

San Antonio has simply owned this series in recent meetings. The Spurs are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Grizzlies. Their only loss came in Memphis earlier this season on January 11th by a final of 101-98 (OT).

The Spurs are 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 13.5 points/game. Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic should not be catching double-digit points against the Houston Rockets tonight. This is an Orlando team that has been undervalued on the road all season, which is evident by its 21-15 ATS record away from home.

Houston has no business being favored by double-digits tonight considering it will likely be playing without leading scorer, James Harden (foot), who is listed as doubtful. It's also coming off a big 98-81 home victory over the Clippers, setting it up for a letdown spot tonight as it will have a hard time getting up for the Magic.

This play falls into a system that is 50-23 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.

Orlando is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Houston dating back to 2009. The road team has won six of the last 10 meetings outright. Take the Magic Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +110

The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into 2013. That's because they underachieved last year, winning just 81 games despite coming into the season as one of the favorites to win the World Series.

However, injuries really derailed Philadelphia's season last year. I look for it to bounce back in a big way in 2013, and that starts tonight with a road victory over NL East rival Atlanta. The Phillies clearly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Philadelphia did a great job of getting Cole Hamels signed long-term this past season. Hamels went 17-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.124 WHIP over 31 starts last season. The left-hander is 12-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 27 career starts against Atlanta.

While Hamels is in the prime of his career, Tim Hudson is another year older for the Braves. He's coming off a decent 2012 campaign in which he went 16-7 with a 3.62 ERA, but just 8-5 with a 3.93 ERA at home. Hudson is also 10-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 27 career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 starts overall. The Braves are 5-21 in their last 26 Monday games. Take the Phillies Monday.

20* Angels/Reds Interleague Opening Day No-Brainer on Los Angeles +100

The Los Angeles Angels should not be an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds on Opening Day. This is going to be one of the best teams in baseball in 2013 with the signing of Josh Hamilton. The only real question mark about this team is the rotation outside of Jered Weaver, who gets the ball in this one.

Weaver put together yet another Cy Young-worthy campaign in 2013. He went 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.018 WHIP over 30 starts. He'll outduel Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto to get the victory today.

The Angels are 49-21 in their last 70 interleague games. Los Angeles is 9-2 in Weaver's last 11 road starts. The Angels are 38-13 in Weavers last 51 starts overall. The Reds are 10-21 in their last 31 vs. American League West opponents. Bet the Angels Monday.

15* Rangers/Astros MLB Season Opener on Houston +147

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value in their 2013 season opener tonight against new AL West rival Texas. I'm going to take advantage and back them at this generous price.

Houston clearly comes into this season undervalued after finishing with the worst record in baseball at 55-107 in 2012. Sure, this is still going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in all likelihood, but the value is there to pull the trigger on them early.

That's especially the case with the underrated Bud Norris on the mound. The right-hander was nothing short of dominant at home last year, going 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.964 WHIP over 11 starts.

Matt Harrison is one of the worst opening day starters in the big leagues, and he's clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Harrison posted a 5.11 ERA this spring and he's far from an Ace. He is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against Houston. Bet the Astros Sunday.

15* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio -1

The San Antonio Spurs simply need this win more, and that's why I believe they'll get it. They lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by two games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They also trail the Miami Heat by two games for the No. 1 overall seed.

Miami has actually already clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. That's why I look for it to take nights off down the stretch and check out mentally, especially after having its 27-game winning streak just recently ended.

San Antonio wants revenge from three straight losses to Miami in this series. All three of those losses came on the road, including a 100-105 loss at Miami on November 29th in their first meeting this season. The Spurs nearly pulled off the upset despite playing without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobli in that contest.

The Spurs are 32-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points/game. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take San Antonio Sunday.

20* Michigan/Florida Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan +3

The Wolverines will be riding high following their amazing comeback victory over Kansas in the Sweet 16. After blowing out both South Dakota State (71-56) and VCU (78-53) in the first two rounds, they erased a late 14-point deficit to beat the Jayhawks 87-85 (OT).

Florida has been very fortunate to be dealt the easiest schedule of all the teams left in the field. The Gators have drawn Northwestern State, Minnesota and Florida Gulf Coast to reach the Elite 8. Michigan is more battle-tested, and it will use its momentum from the Kansas victory to advance to the Final Four.

The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Florida is 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a win. Bet Michigan Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will blow the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the building tonight. The Grizzlies would currently be the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today, trailing the Clippers by just 0.5 games for No. 4 and Denver by 1.0 games for No. 3.

With playoff seeding on the line, don't expect Memphis to take a night off the rest of the way. That's why I'm not concerned with them coming back tonight and facing Minnesota after a big 103-94 home win over Houston last night.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot following their shocking 101-93 upset home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. They won't even show up tonight off such a big win, especially considering how tired they are. Minnesota will be playing its 4th game in 5 days, and its 7th game in 10 days tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 58-26 (69%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

Memphis simply owns Minnesota. It has gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves dating back to 2010. All 10 victories have come by 4 points or more. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* College Insider Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa -4

The Northern Iowa Panthers are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over Weber State in the semifinals of the College Insider Tournament Saturday. I look for the Panthers to blow the opposition out of the building tonight.

Northern Iowa is the best team left in this tournament. It has posted three straight double-digit victories over North Dakota, Illinois-Chicago and Bradley to reach the semis. Weber State won three straight at home as well to get here, but now it has to take its act on the road, which is a huge disadvantage.

That's especially the case considering Northern Iowa is 16-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.0 points/game. That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams like St. Mary's (82-73), Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54).

Weber State has played a very easy schedule this season. In fact, you could make the argument that this is its toughest game of the year. A couple other tough games for them include a 55-65 road loss at Utah State, and a 68-78 home loss to BYU.

Weber State is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing UNI. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Marquette Elite 8 No-Brainer on Syracuse -4

The Syracuse Orange should be a bigger favorite tonight over the Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette is the most overrated team left in the field, while Syracuse is the most underrated.

This is a Syracuse team that won three games in three days in the Big East Tournament before blowing a 15-point lead in the Championship Game to Louisville as it ran out of gas on the 4th day. It came in playing well, and it has continued in the NCAA Tournament.

The Orange have knocked off Montana (81-34), California (66-60) and Indiana (61-50) by a combined 64 points. Meanwhile, Marquette is lucky to be here, having beaten Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points in the first two rounds.

This is revenge time for the Orange as they lost their only meeting with Marquette on the road by a final of 71-74 on February 25th. The Golden Eagles got all the calls in that game as they shot 35 free throws compared to Syracuse's 7.

Syracuse is 27-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997. Marquette is 4-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. You could certainly make the argument that the Orange are the best team left in the Big Dance right alongside Louisville. They prove it today. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Duke Sweet 16 Friday No-Brainer on Duke -2

The Duke Blue Devils are the superior team in this match-up with the Michigan State Wolverines. This is a very evenly-matched game coaching-wise with Coach K and Tom Izzo going at it, but Coach K clearly will have the better talent on the floor, and that will show Friday night.

The key factor here is the health of Ryan Kelly, who has been the key to the Blue Devils' success this season. In fact, Duke is a sensational 20-1 in all games that Kelly has played in this year. He is clearly the motor that makes this team run.

One look at the history between these teams and it's easy to see that Coach K has not only out-coached Izzo, but he's also had the better talent. In fact, Duke is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with Michigan State dating back to 1998. All six of those victories have come by 5 points or more.

Duke is 7-0 ATS in road games after a non-conference game this season. The Spartans are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Duke Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Miami Heat are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They just had their 27-game winning streak snapped against Chicago on Wednesday, and it's going to be hard to get motivated to play the game after that crushing defeat. I look for the Heat to suffer a hangover effect because of it.

New Orleans has proven to be giant killers here of late as it continues to play out its season. It has won three of its last four with victories over Boston (87-86) as a 4.5-point underdog, Memphis (90-83) as a 6-point dog, and Denver (110-86) as a 7-point dog. The Hornets will not be intimidated by the Heat tonight.

The home team has won each of the last six meetings dating back to 2009. In fact, New Orleans is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home meetings with Miami dating back to 2006. The Heat are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. That's why I look for them to roll to a blowout win over the Houston Rockets at home Friday.

Memphis is coming off two straight losses and three in its last four games overall. This is a team that is fighting to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and it cannot afford to keep slipping in the standings. I look for it to put its foot down tonight.

The Grizzlies will also be hungry for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season. Memphis lost at Houston 96-121 in their last meeting this season on December 22nd.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings dating back to 2010. Memphis is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home meetings with Houston with all four victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Grizzlies are 28-8 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 14-21 on the road. Memphis is 24-6 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Timberwolves OVER 201.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. It even opened at 203.5 and has been bet down to 201.5. It's time to jump on the OVER tonight folks.

Oklahoma City averages 106.2 points/game on the season and I fully expect it to take care of the majority of this OVER on its own. It did just that the last time these teams met up on February 22nd with a 127-111 home victory over Minnesota for 238 combined points. In fact, the Thunder & Timberwolves have combined for 204 or more points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall.

Minnesota has finally gotten almost all the way healthy, which has really helped its offensive productions of late. The Timberwolves are averaging 109.0 points/game in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 117-120 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Timberwolves are 8-1 to the OVER after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Minnesota is 29-12 to the OVER vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +2

The Michigan Wolverines represent my strongest release of the entire 2013 NCAA Tournament Friday when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks in the Sweet 16. It's easy to see that the Big Ten is the best conference in the country, and it should not be an underdog to Kansas because of it.

In fact, the Big Ten has sent four teams to the Sweet 16 compared to just one for the Big 12. Kansas even had to escape with a 64-57 win over Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite in the opening round, and erase a 9-point first half deficit against UNC, just to get here.

The Jayhawks were even gifted home-court advantage in the first two rounds as they had to only travel 40 miles from campus over to Kansas City. With home-court advantage gone, and playing a much tougher opponent, Kansas' luck runs out tonight.

Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a rough stretch to close out the season. They have proven that with a 71-56 victory over South Dakota State as a 12-point favorite, and a 78-73 blowout of VCU as a 3.5-point favorite.

Once again, the Wolverines are undervalued tonight as an underdog when they are clearly the superior team. Michigan is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten. Take Michigan Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 195

This total has been inflated tonight due to the recent meetings between the Hawks and Celtics. They have played three times already this season with the total being set at 187, 185 and 188.5 respectively. As you can see, we are getting a ton of value with this 195 number tonight.

Boston won at Atlanta 89-81 for 170 combined points in their first meeting of the season on January 5th. Atlanta beat Boston 123-111 (2 OT) in their second meeting on January 25th in a game that was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation. Boston then beat Atlanta 107-102 (OT) in their most recent meeting on March 8th in a game that was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation.

These last two overtimes have clearly forced the oddsmakers to inflate this total tonight in their 4th and final meeting. These teams are very familiar with each other having played three times in the past couple months, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Boston has lost five of its last six heading into this one. It tends to buckle down defensively when it's on tough stretch like this one. That's evident by the fact that the Celtics are 7-0 to the UNDER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. They are combining with their opponents to average with their opponents to average 174.9 points/game in this spot. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks have quietly gotten themselves in position to make one final run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have won three in a row, including Tuesday's victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, to get to within 1.5 games of the Los Angeles Lakers for 8th.

In fact, this team has been undervalued for a couple months now. That's evidenced by the fact that the Mavericks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games overall. This team clearly doesn't get the respect it deserves as it is playing as well as many of the top teams in the league right now.

Indiana comes in fatigued as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. That's a tough spot, especially considering it had to play the Houston Rockets last night, who play at a faster tempo than any other team in the league. The Pacers are in a letdown spot after their big win over the Rockets, and they're going to run out of gas tonight.

The Pacers are just an average team away from home this season, where they are 16-19 on the year. Dallas is a solid 21-14 at home this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The Pacers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dallas is 82-52 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 24-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 37-54 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -5

The Miami Hurricanes should be a much heavier favorite over the Marquette Golden Eagles tonight. They got the test they needed from Illinois in the Round of 32, and made all the big plays down the stretch to get through.

I full expect the Hurricanes to roll to a blowout victory over a Marquette team that doesn't even deserve to be in the Sweet 16. In fact, it has won its first two games against Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points. The Golden Eagles' luck runs out in the Sweet 16.

Miami has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that it is 21-8 ATS in all lined games this year. Despite winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, this team is still undervalued.

The Hurricanes are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 non-conference games. Miami is 43-19-4 ATS in its last 66 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Marquette is 3-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Hurricanes are 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Bet Miami Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2.5

It's now or never for the Portland Trail Blazers. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They believe they still have a shot, which is huge.

Portland checks in well-rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday in a loss at Oklahoma City. It has won the previous two games impressively with road victories at Chicago (99-89) as a 6-point dog and at Atlanta (104-93) as a 7.5-point dog.

Brooklyn comes in overvalued due to having won three of its last four games with all four of them coming on the road. However, all three of those victories came against current non-playoff teams in Detroit, Phoenix and Dallas. They'll start feeling the effects of this long road trip in Portland tonight.

The Nets are 5-15 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game.

Portland is 4-0 SU in its last 4 home meetings with Brooklyn with wins by 13, 7, 10 and 9 points dating back to 2009, respectively. The Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Portland is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are simply catching too many points tonight to the Golden State Warriors. Golden State is in a huge letdown spot following its 109-103 home victory over the rival Los Angeles Lakers Monday night.

Sacramento comes in well-rested having last played on Sunday in a home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Given its tightly-contested recent history with Golden State, it's easy to see that 9 points is too much tonight.

In fact, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less, and by a combined 13 points. Three of those meetings have happened this season with Sacramento winning 94-92 and 131-127 at home, and Golden State winning most recently 87-83 at home as a 10.5-point favorite on March 6th.

This play falls into a system that is 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11.5

I look for the Utah Jazz to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight. Utah simply needs this one more as it trails the Los Angeles Lakers by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It won't be lacking any motivation tonight because of it.

Phoenix has nothing to play for, and it has already shown signs of packing it in over the past few weeks. The Suns have lost nine of their last 11 games overall with seven of those nine losses coming by 13 points or more.

Utah picked up a 107-91 home victory over Philadelphia on Monday to put to end a 4-game losing streak that came against playoff contenders in New York, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas with three of those games coming on the road. This team is certainly battle-tested after that tough stretch.

The Jazz have one their last two home meetings with the Suns by 13 and 12 points with finals of 94-81 and 100-88. Utah is 25-9 at home this season, while Phoenix is just 7-28 on the road, losing by nearly 10 points/game.

The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 24-3 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9

The Providence Friars are showing excellent value as a 9-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Quarterfinals tonight. In fact, they represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NIT Tournament.

Baylor is getting too much respect here due to the extra rest it has had leading up to this game. With a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line, Providence won't show any signs of fatigue despite playing two nights ago in a 77-68 home victory over Robert Morris.

The Big 12 has clearly been the most overrated conference in the country all season. That has been evident in the NCAA Tournament as only Kansas has made it through to the Sweet 16. The Big East has three teams in the Sweet 16 to compare.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-17 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win. Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They lead both Utah and Dallas by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They realize they cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Lakers is the fact that they have lost three straight games heading into this one. They couldn't possibly be playing a better opponent to get back on track tonight considering how they have dominated Minnesota over the year.

Los Angeles has won 21 straight meetings with Minnesota heading into this contest. 19 of those 21 victories have come by 5 points or more, making for a 19-2 (90%) system backing the Lakers dating back to 2007.

Also note that the Timberwolves will be a tired team heading into this one. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is tough for a team that is already short-handed due to injury. Take the Lakers Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.