Winning Sports Picks

20* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +2.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels somehow were able to get a bye week before playing their biggest game of the season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had to play Saturday against Abilene Christian and now will be on a short week.  That edge in rest and preparation is a huge advantage for the Rebels this week. 

Ole Miss has been grossly undervalued in the entire second half of the season.  The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have exceeded expectations despite playing a brutal schedule.  And ever since dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee took over, this Ole Miss offense has flourished.  Plumlee has rushed for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 7.3 per carry against mostly very good defenses.   

The Rebels have had their best offensive performance last time out against a very good LSU defense.  The managed 614 total yards and 37 points against LSU.  They had 606 total yards against New Mexico State the game before and covered as 28-point favorites in a 41-3 win.  They only lost 14-20 at Auburn as 17-point dogs.  They deserved to beat Texas A&M but lost 17-24 at home despite outgaining them by 65 yards.  They gave Missouri a battle in a 27-38 road loss.  They crushed Vanderbilt 31-6 as 7-point home favorites.  And they were only outgained by 98 yards at Alabama and put up 31 points and 476 total yards on their defense.

This is going to be Ole Miss’ Super Bowl.  They won’t be going to a bowl game at 4-7 this season.  But they have a chance to knock Mississippi State (5-6) out of a bowl game.  The Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season as they are just 4-7 ATS with their only covers coming in wins over Southern Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas and Abilene Christian.  They really haven’t beaten anyone good. 

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Ole Miss is 1-4 SU & 4-1 ATS against them while only getting outscored by 9.6 points per game and outgained by 0.8 yards per play.  Mississippi State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against those same five opponents, getting outscored by 15.2 points per game and outgained by 1.3 yards per play.  These common opponent stats show Ole Miss is the better team, and we’re getting them as an underdog in a favorable rest spot off the bye. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Mississippi State) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent that gained 5.5 or more yards per attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.  Mississippi State is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Take Ole Miss Thursday. 

15* Bears/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +4.5 

I realize the Detroit Lions could be down to third-string quarterback David Blough if Jeff Driskel is unable to go.  And while I liked Blough at Purdue and believe he looked pretty solid in the preseason, this is more of a play against Chicago than a play on Detroit than anything. 

This line has moved from Detroit -1.5 all the way to Chicago -4.5, which is a 6-point adjustment.  I’d understand that adjustment if it was from Stafford to Driskel, but not from Driskel to possibly Blough.  This is an overcorrection, and the value is clearly on the Lions at home.  The books are clearly going to need the Lions, and I like being on the books’ side in this situation. 

The fact of the matter is the Bears still have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They are scoring 17.1 points per game and averaging 269.3 yards per game on the season.  They have scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games coming in.  You just can’t trust the Bears to lay this many points with their dreadful offense. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Lions, who were upset by the Redskins last week as 4-point road favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as the Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards but gave the game away with four turnovers.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Lions after they just lost to the dreadful Redskins, but nine times out of 10 with their stats they would have won that game. 

In fact, the Lions have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, including in all three of their road games against the Raiders, Bears and Redskins.  They outgained the Giants at home and beat them, and took the Cowboys to the wire in a 27-35 loss in the only game they were outgained. 

Four weeks ago, the Lions played in Chicago with Driskel at quarterback and lost 13-20.  But that was a hugely misleading final.  They outgained the Bears by 131 yards in that game.  They held Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s offense to just 216 yards while gaining 357 yards themselves.  They clearly should have won that game.  They were 6-point road dogs in that contest, and now they are 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  The line should be closer to PK when you adjust for home-field advantage. 

A whopping 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series were decided by one score.  And this game is likely to go down to the wire as well, so getting +4.5 points is a nice value.  And keep in mind the Bears are just 5-6 this season with only two of their wins coming by more than one score.  Plus, 10 of Detroit’s 11 games this season have been decided by one score, so they are much better than their 3-7-1 record would indicate. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Chicago) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1983.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with the Lions Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury.  They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites.  Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. 

The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters.  They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday.  They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. 

The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons.  They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* Seton Hall/Oregon ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oregon -1 

The Oregon Ducks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and ranked No. 11 in the country for good reason.  They have won all five games by 8 points or more and their schedule has not been easy as they’ve played Fresno State (won by 14), Boise State (won by 31), Memphis (won by 8) and Houston (won by 12). 

Seton Hall is also off to a good start this season at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  Their narrow home loss to Michigan State doesn’t look so good now after Michigan State was just upset as 13.5-point favorites against Virginia Tech and barely beat Georgia.  Seton Hall is mostly a one-man show with Myles Powell and the Ducks’ elite defense will be prepared to stop him. 

Oregon is giving up 63.8 points per game and 36.1% shooting.  That’s impressive when you consider they have faced some great offensive teams that average 80.1 points per game on the season.  They are holding their opponents to 16.3 points per game less than their season averages. 

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Ducks are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seton Hall is 0-4 ATS in its last four games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State +1 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 6-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

Wichita State crushed South Carolina 70-47 yesterday behind another dominant defensive performance.  They held the Gamecocks to 32.1% shooting and have now held all six of their opponents to 39.3% or less.  They are giving up just 56.2 points per game and 35.9% shooting on the season, holding opponents to 15.1 points per game less than their season averages. 

West Virginia is 5-0 but just 2-3 ATS.  They only beat Northern Colorado by 8 and Akron by 10 at home.  They were fortunate to make this title game because they had a 15-point comeback win over Northern Iowa yesterday and took the lead in the final seconds on an And-1 following a bogus flagrant foul.  They scored 5 points with the clock stopped, and it was the difference in the game.  They won’t be so fortunate against Wichita State today. 

The Shockers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less.  Wichita State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Wichita State Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

The Indiana Pacers have been flying under the radar over the past month.  They are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming to Houston, Milwaukee and Charlotte (by 2).  They are getting no respect at home tonight as only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz. 

The Pacers are as healthy as they’ve been all season as they have everyone but Victor Oladipo healthy now.  It’s a big reason why they are playing so well.  And the Pacers will certainly have fresh legs as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. 

Indiana has had Utah’s number in recent seasons.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 33 at Utah and by 27 at home against the Jazz in their two meetings last year. 

Plays against underdogs (Utah) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +1 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are 6-1 this season and have their best team in years.  They closed last season very strong and have welcomed back four starters this season and a ton of talent.  If not for a blown 15-point lead against West Virginia yesterday and a bogus flagrant foul call late, they’d be 7-0. 

Look for the Panthers to come back today and beat a very bad South Carolina team.  South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG). 

South Carolina is 4-2 this season, but they were upset 70-78 at home by Boston U as 15.5-point favorites.  And they barely beat Gardner Webb by 5 as 15-point favorites before getting crushed 47-70 by Wichita State yesterday.  I was on Wichita State yesterday, and I’ll fade the Gamecocks again today. 

Northern Iowa is 34-11 ATS in its last 45 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Gamecocks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV ANNIIHILATOR on Dallas +2.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.  And it’s not like they are beating up on cupcakes as they topped the defending champion Raptors 110-102 at home and went on the road and upset the Rockets 137-123 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Mavericks will host one of the favorites to win the title in the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge.  The Clippers have also won five straight, but they’ve been much less impressive with wins by 2, 3 and 3 points.  And all five wins came at home. 

The Clippers are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season where they are giving up 119.2 points per game.  They have benefited from a very easy home-heavy schedule with 12 games at home compared to just five on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are off to an impressive 5-0 start this season.  They returned three starters for head coach Gregg Marshall this season and should be able to make a run at the NCAA Tournament after settling for the NIT last year.  They won nine of their final 11 AAC games last year and made a run to the NIT semifinals, which greatly benefited them this season. 

South Carolina is coming off a 16-16 season last year and two of their top three scores from that team in Chris Silva (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG last year) and Hassani Gravett (11.4 PPG).  The Gamecocks are off to a 4-1 start this season against. Very soft schedule with five home against against suspect competition.   

The Gamecocks lost to Boston U 70-78 at home as 15.5-point favorites and didn’t respond well in their next game, only beating Gardner Webb 74-69 as 15-point favorites.  That gives Wichita State a common opponent as they also played Gardner Webb, crushing them 74-52 as 15.5-point home favorites. 

The Shockers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Wichita State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  South Carolina is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +28 

The Akron Zips are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and we are getting them at a huge discount this week.  We’re getting the Zips as four-touchdown home underdogs on Senior Night in a game I know they are going to be max motivated to get their first win of the year. 

I cashed in Akron last week as 31.5-point underdogs at Miami (Ohio).  They only lost that game 17-20 and had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter.  That’s a Miami (Ohio) team that will be going to the MAC Championship. 

Ohio has been overrated all season because they were a popular pick to win the MAC this year.  The Bobcats are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  They have a good quarterback in Nathan Rourke, but the rest of their team has a lot of problems. 

Akron actually has the better defense in this matchup.  The Zips are giving up 396.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season.  Ohio is allowing 431.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the year.  I don’t think the Bobcats should be favored by four touchdowns on the road with the worse defense. 

Akron’s offense has not been good, obviously, but they have been better with QB Kato Nelson under center.  He has 11 touchdowns against six interceptions and is a dual-threat who can escape pressure.  This offense has been a lot more effective in the games he didn’t miss with injury. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  The lone exception was last year with a very good Ohio team winning 49-28 at home against Akron as 24-point favorites.  Now the Bobcats are favored by 28 on the road this time around and they aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. 

Ohio is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 50 points or more in their previous game.  Frank Solich is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of Ohio.  Their game against Bowling Green was much closer than the final score showed last week, so we’re getting extra line value here because of it.  Take Akron Tuesday. 

15* Stanford/Oklahoma ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +5 

Head coach Jarod Haase clearly has the best team he has had at Stanford as he enters his fourth year with the program.  The Cardinal returned three starters this year and came away with a tremendous recruiting class.  Things are looking up for Stanford. 

Indeed, the Cardinal are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with all six wins coming by 11 points or more.  They have two common opponents with Oklahoma this season, which would lead me to believe that Stanford is the better team and shouldn’t be catching points here. 

Oklahoma is also 5-0, but failed to cover the spread against the same two teams that Stanford played.  They beat William & Mary 75-70, while Stanford beat W&M 81-50.  They beat Maryland East Shore by 27, and Stanford beat Maryland East Shore by 21.  So Stanford has outscored those two teams by an average of 26.0 points per game, while Oklahoma has only outscored them by 16.0 points per game. 

Stanford is shooting 43% from 3-point range this season, while Oklahoma is only shooting 30.2%.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games making 50% of their 3-point shots or better.  Take Stanford Monday. 

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year.  Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs.  Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. 

The results cannot even be debated.  Roman is the dual-threat QB guru.  The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.  Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt.  He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. 

The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season.  They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games.  But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since.  However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week.  Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season.  And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. 

I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses.  The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks.  The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks.  This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late.  I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. 

The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game.  Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  The only key player they are missing now is Reggie Jackson.  They should be a good bet in the short term because they are undervalued now after a 5-11 SU & 5-9-2 ATS start this season. 

Injuries have taken their toll on the Orlando Magic.  They are playing without arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, and they are also without PG Michael Carter-Williams.  They lost by 16 in Toronto and by 5 in Indiana in their last two games coming in.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Pacers until Gordon and Vucevic return. 

The Magic are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season.  The Pistons are 37-13 SU & 28-18-4 ATS in their last 50 home meetings with the Magic.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take the Pistons Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 

I like the value we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies today.  The Pacers would have to win by double-digits to beat us, and I don’t see that happening.  The Pacers aren’t a good enough team to be laying double-digits to almost anyone. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Indiana, which has won nine of its last 12 games coming in.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight coming in.  But they barely lost 108-109 to the Lakers as 8-point dogs last time out.  And now the Grizzlies will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. 

Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - off three or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 81-46 (63.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this year with their only loss coming on the road at Xavier in overtime.  Their four wins have all come by 15 points or more. 

The Tigers returned three starters this season and added in some great recruits.  Their three returning starters are all having solid seasons in Mark Smith (13.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG this year), Jeremiah Tilmon (11.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Javon Pickett (5.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG).  Dru Smith (11.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) is a transfer from Evansville, and Xavier Pinson (9.2 PPG, 3.8 APG) has taken his game to the next level after coming off the bench last year. 

Butler is coming off a 16-17 season and it’s clear head coach LaVall Jordan is falling short of expectations.  The Bulldogs only returned two starters this year and one is Aaron Thompson (6.3 PPG, 4.3 APG last year).  The Bulldogs are 5-0 but it has come against an easy schedule with five home games. 

This is technically a neutral site game, but it won’t be neutral at all.  It will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO and the Tigers will have a huge home-court edge.  Butler is 3-16 ATS in road games off a home game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in road games off two or more straight wins over the last three years.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Bet Missouri Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -3 

The San Francisco 49ers are among the top three teams in the NFL in my opinion.  They are neck and neck with the Patriots and Ravens, and the numbers show it.  The 49ers are 8-2 with a +140 point differential, and the Ravens are 8-2 with a +145 differential and the Patriots are 9-1 with a +179 differential.  Fourth place is Minnesota at +84, and 5th place is Green Bay at +45. 

As you can see, the top three teams are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else.  And this number of 49ers -3 is basically saying these are equal teams when giving the 49ers 3 points for home-field advantage.  And they’re not even close to equal.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 140 points this season, while the Packers have only outscored theirs by 45.  The Packers have simply been fortunate in close games. 

The key stat here is the 49ers are far and away the better defensive team.  The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 253.0 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game allowed.  The Packers are 28th in total defense, giving up 384.7 yards per game.  Only the Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals and Bengals have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company. 

Another big key is the 49ers get George Kittle back this week.  There’s a reason they struggled with the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two games.  Being division opponents definitely is one reason, but the other is the 49ers were without Kittle.  He is worth more to the point spread than any non-QB in the NFL.  He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end last year and is far and away Jimmy G’s favorite target.  The 49ers in general are more healthy than they were for those two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that’s a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the best defense he’s seen yet this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5 

The Washington Wizards continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites against the injury-ravaged Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Wizards are 10-3 ATS this season and have been one of the best covering teams in the league. 

The Wizards come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Boston as 7.5-point dogs and by 4 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  They beat Minnesota by 21 on the road as 5.5-point dogs, topped the Spurs by 6 at home as 2-point dogs and covered in a 7-point win over the Hornets as 6-point home favorites. 

The Kings are coming off a bad 19-point loss at Brooklyn and things are going to get worse before they get better due to their injuries.  They are playing without De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza right now. 

The Wizards are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Kings.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas +6 

The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 444.6 yards per game on the season as Dak Prescott is having an MVP year, and Zeke Elliott is one of the best backs in the NFL.  The Cowboys will test the Patriots’ defense like they haven’t been tested yet this year. 

Tom Brady is dealing with an elbow injury that saw him wind up on the injury report this week.  And Brady is going to be without two receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett.  This Patriots offense has been struggling due to a lack of weapons, plus Brady finally showing his age.  This is a lot of points for the Patriots to have to lay with an offense as lackluster as theirs. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the second half of the season are 29-10 (74.4%) ATS over the last five years. 

The Cowboys are 6-4 on the season with three of their losses coming by 2, 2 and 4 points.  They have only been beaten once by more than 6 points in their 10 games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Jason Garrett is 17-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 12-4 ATS in road games off a road game as the coach of the Cowboys.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans got hot in the 2nd half of the season last year and they’re doing it again this year.  They have won three of their last four behind the great play of Ryan Tannehill.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt while being a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota. 

The Titans pulled off the huge 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs two weeks ago at home.  Now they are coming off a bye week and ready to keep their momentum going as they are just one game back of first place in the AFC South.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way now. 

The Jaguars are reeling after back-to-back blowout losses to Houston by 23 and Indianapolis by 20.  They could not stop the run against either team.  They gave up 216 rushing yards to the Texans and 264 to the Colts.  That’s bad news for the Jaguars having to face Derrick Henry this week. 

The Titans rushed for 225 yards on the Chiefs led by 188 and two scores from Henry.  This is the time of year when Henry came on strong last season, and he’s poised to do it against in 2019.  The Titans also want revenge from a 20-7 road loss to the Jaguars in their first meeting this season.  The Titans actually outgained the Jaguars by 48 yards in that game.  And that was back when Mariota was still starting and Jalen Ramsey was actually playing for the Jaguars.  These are two completely different teams now. 

Tennessee is still 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Jacksonville.  The Titans have rushed for an average of 160 yards per game in those five meetings.  And I expect them to top 200 rushing yards in this game with Tannehill also continuing his great play.  The Titans are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Jaguars.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +6.5 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production.  The Rams are off to a 4-1 start this season with a win over Alabama and their only loss coming to a Top 10 Maryland team on the road. 

LSU lost a couple players to the NBA and isn’t nearly as good as it was last year.  The Tigers are 3-2 this season with losses to the two best teams they’ve faced in VCU and Utah State.  LSU struggled to put away Bowling Green by 9 at home as 13-point favorites and Nicholls State by 10 at home as 21-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 6.5 on a neutral over Rhode Island today. 

The Tigers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  LSU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Rhode Island is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Rhode Island Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +10 

The Carolina Panthers are in do-or-die mode now.  They are 5-5 on the season and needing a win to stay in the playoff race.  I know I’m going to get a big effort from the Panthers today with their season on the line and playing a division rival.  I love getting double-digits with the Panthers in this spot. 

This is the perfect week to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers.  They are coming off a 3-29 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons.  But that was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 2 yards.  Conversely, it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints, who are coming off a 34-17 blowout win over the Bucs.  But that was also a misleading final because the Saints were outgained by 6 yards.  The Bucs were only down 10 and Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the final minutes to make the score worse than it was.  We are getting line value now because of those two misleading finals. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New Orleans) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS int he last 10 meetings in this series.  Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 trips to New Orleans.  Take the Panthers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +6.5 

The New York Giants are coming off their bye week.  They are looking to finish the season strong to build for next year.  They already have their QB of the future, so they aren’t looking to tank.  And that’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the NFL today is that teams tank.  Players aren’t looking to lose their jobs by poor performance.  They show up every Sunday. 

I like the fact that Mitch Trubisky is starting over Chase Daniel.  It helps our bet here.  Trubisky is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.  The Bears are scoring just 16.9 points per game on the season.  They are averaging 263 yards per game as well.  They can’t be trusted to lay a number like this to many teams in the NFL, especially a Giants team coming off their bye. 

Jones has a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last three games overall.  And I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Giants, who have lost six straight coming in.  We saw the Falcons respond from their bye at 1-7 and dominate their two games out of the bye.  I’m not saying the Giants will be as dominant, but they will put their best foot forward this week off their bye. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - off five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1983.  Teams on extended losing streaks are consistently undervalued this late in the seasons.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.  New York is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +14 

We’ve made a lot of money fading Fresno State this year, and we’ll continue to do so tonight.  The Bulldogs came into the season way overvalued due to being the best covering team in the nation the previous two years.  But they only returned eight starters and it was a clear rebuilding year, yet the Bulldogs have been priced like the team they were the previous two seasons.  And it continues to be the case week after week. 

Fresno State is just 4-6 SU & 3-6-1 ATS this season.  Three of their four wins came by 14 points or less, and yet they are laying 14 points here to a Nevada team that is better than all four teams they’ve beaten outside of Hawaii, which they only beat on a last-second field goal.  Fresno has a win over Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, a win over New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites and a win over UNLV as 16.5-point favorites. 

Plus, Nevada is a 6-4 team that is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Wolf Pack have done a good job of turning their season around by winning and covering against New Mexico at home and pulling the 17-13 upset at San Diego State as 17.5-point dogs in their last two games coming in.  Now they carry that momentum into Fresno State this weekend. 

Fresno State has been outgained in five of its last six games.  The only exception was the 75 yards they outgained UNLV by in a very misleading 56-27 win.  They were outgained by 153 yards in a 24-43 loss at Air Force, by 112 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites, by 41 yards in their 3-point win over Hawaii, by 106 yards in their 35-37 upset home loss to Utah State and by 219 yards in their 7-17 loss at San Diego State last week. 

Fresno State had one of the best defenses in the country last year, but that has been far from the case this year.  The Bulldogs are giving up 33.8 points and 473.3 yards per game in Mountain West play this season.  This is a pretty bad conference, and they just gave up 425 yards to a bad San Diego State offense last week.  They had allowed 500-plus yards in three straight games prior to that SDSU game as well.  The back door will always be open for Nevada if needed, but I don’t think it will be needed.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy finally and are starting to play their best basketball of the season as a result.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and they should not be catching 7.5 points to the Utah Jazz given the awful spot for Utah. 

Indeed, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing some late game heroics to beat a bad Golden State team 113-109 as 16-point favorites last night.  The Jazz won’t have much left in the tank for the Pelicans, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and will test a Jazz team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pelicans pulled the upset in each of their last two trips to Utah, and they haven’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their last six trips to Salt Lake City. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an ugly blowout home loss to the Golden State Warriors, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies have had three days off to stew over that loss, and now they’ll be fresh, motivated and ready to go with Lebron James and company coming to town tonight.  They will certainly be up for this game, and it’s understandable they thought they could just show up and beat the Warriors. 

The Lakers are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a grueling, 130-127 shootout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to Memphis and will be playing on tired legs.  The Lakers are already overvalued after winning 13 of their last 14 games overall, and we’ll gladly ’sell high’ on them in this flat spot. 

Plays on home underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or Moree, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are a complete dumpster fire.  They have gone 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are now a league-worst 2-13-1 ATS on the season.  It’s not going to get any better for them tonight. 

The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They lost 104-115 on the road to the 76ers last night and will be playing their 4th straight road game.  Simply put, the Spurs are running on fumes right now. 

The Knicks have finally gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  The Knicks are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Mavericks as 7.5-point home dogs and blew out the Cavs by 18 as 5.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by a single point to the Hornets, and they gave Philadelphia a battle on the road in a 104-109 road loss as 13-point dogs last time out.   

Now the Knicks come in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Spurs will have nothing left in the tank and will lose their 9th straight game tonight.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -1.5 

Stanford sits at 4-6 on the season.  The Cardinal need two more wins to get to a bowl game.  That’s important to them because they have a 10-year bowl streak alive and haven’t missed a bowl since the 2008 season.  And they certainly don’t want their season to come to an end at the hands of their biggest rival in Cal. 

Stanford is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with California.  And now the Cardinal just have to win this game at home to cover as only 1.5-point favorites.  I believe this is a gift from oddsmakers because despite having a down year, Stanford is still better than Cal this season. 

Injuries have hurt the Cardinal this season, but they have found their QB moving forward in Davis Mills.  He threw for a school-record 504 yards against Washington State last week.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,394 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and is averaging 8.7 per attempt.  He has actually been better than starter KJ Costello, and certainly better than their third-stringer, who was forced into action earlier this season.   

Mills led the 23-13 win over Washington, and he also led the win at Oregon State.  He just made his first start last week since that win over Washington back on September 5th.  I think the Cardinal’s record would be better if he started every game this year.  Cal just gave up 406 passing yards last week in a 17-41 loss to USC a week after giving up 407 passing yards to Washington State.  It’s clear you can throw on this Cal defense, and Mills will exploit it. 

Cal starting QB Chase Garbers just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, either.  He was knocked out of the loss to USC last week with a shoulder injury, and he’s questionable to play this week.  Backup Devin Monster has been awful in his place, completing just 50.8% of his passes with a 5-to-5 TD/INT ratio and 5.8 per attempt.  Garbers is at 57.6% with an 8-to-2 ratio and 7.9 per attempt, so it’s a big downgrade if Modster gets the start. 

This is a Cal offense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Bears only average 18.9 points and 304.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.7 points and 268.7 yards per game on the road.  The Bears are 2-5 in conference play and scoring just 15.9 points per game while averaging 265.4 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  That’s another reason they shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  Roll with Stanford Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -4.5 

Despite having a disastrous season up to this point, the Nebraska Cornhuskers sit at 4-6 on the season and still within reach of a bowl game.  You can bet Scott Frost doesn’t want the embarrassment of missing out on a bowl again, and he’ll have his players ready to go Saturday in Maryland. 

Conversely, Maryland just suffered its seventh loss of the season and sits at 3-7 on the year.  The Terrapins know they won’t be going to a bowl game, and I question their motivation.  This team has rarely even been competitive in Big Ten play this season.  The Terrapins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten action, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game.  They are a disaster right now, and head coach Mike Locksley is in trouble. 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska, which is 1-9 ATS in its 10 games this season while burning the betting public week after week.  They want nothing to do with this team now.  But it’s pretty easy to see the Huskers are better than their 4-6 record as they have continually blown lead after lead and cover after cover in the second half of games this season.  I don’t expect this game to even be close to give them a chance to blow it. 

Nebraska has actually outgained six of its last nine opponents with the only exceptions being a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  They actually outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards last week despite losing 21-37.  Their offense racked up 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense with 273 rushing and 220 passing.  Adrian Martinez is back to 100% healthy, and this offense should continue to flourish the final two weeks of the season. 

Maryland’s offense has been held to just 17.3 points and 283.7 yards per game in conference play this season, including 10.3 points and 194.0 yards per game in their last three.  I just don’t think they can be trusted to score at all and keep up with Nebraska’s high-powered offense.  Not to mention, the Terrapins are giving up 43.3 points and 504.9 yards per game in Big Ten play.  With those numbers, you can see we are getting Nebraska at a discount this week. 

The Huskers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Terrapins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games off a bye week.  Maryland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games.  I’m not concerned about Maryland coming off a bye because their season is over and they aren’t excited at all about this game.  Nebraska just had a bye prior to Wisconsin and will still be fresh and ready to go.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss -3.5 

I believe Southern Miss is a better team than Western Kentucky this year.  But that’s only part of the handicap.  A big part of the handicap is that Southern Miss is still alive for a Conference USA title, while Western Kentucky is not.  And thus the Golden Eagles have the motivational advantage coming into this one. 

Southern Miss is tied for first place in the C-USA West with LA Tech at 5-1 within the conference.  But the Golden Eagles lost to LA Tech, so they don’t hold the tiebreaker.  However, they got a huge break when LA Tech had its QB and Top WR suspended last week and this week.  After losing to Marshall badly last week, LA Tech now travels to face UAB this week and is nearly a 7-point underdog.  Chances are LA Tech loses that game, meaning a win for Southern Miss would put them in first place in the C-USA West. 

Western Kentucky is 4-2 within the conference.  They trail both Marshall (5-1) and Florida Atlantic (5-1).  The problem is that WKU lost to both of those teams, thus they are essentially two games back in the division.  They essentially have no chance of winning C-USA East now and thus don’t have much to play for.  They are already bowl eligible, which is a nice accomplishment in itself after what this program has gone through the last few seasons. 

Southern Miss is the real deal this season.  It is 7-3 this year with its only losses all coming on the road to Alabama, Mississippi State and LA Tech.  This despite facing a brutal schedule with only five home games this season compared to seven road games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 24.7 points per game and outgaining them by 181 yards per game. 

Western Kentucky is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and upsetting Arkansas last time out on the road.  But against the two best teams they have faced in C-USA, they lost on the road to Marshall and at home to FAU by 11.  All of their wins have come against suspect competition, and they also lost to Central Arkansas. 

The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.  Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS in its last eight November games.  And these teams have one common opponent in UAB.  WKU beat UAB 20-13 at home, while Southern Miss crushed UAB 37-2 at home.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +10 

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for the Michigan Wolverines.  They are coming off a huge win over their second-biggest rival in Michigan State.  And next week they play their biggest rival in Ohio State.  This is the game that they are likely to come out flat in as they won’t be up emotionally to face Indiana at all. 

But the Hoosiers are no longer the easy pushovers they used to be.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Michigan State (by 9) and Penn State (by 7), covering the spread in both games as 14 and 15-point dogs, respectively.  Their only blowout loss this season came to Ohio State, which is arguably the best team in the country. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after covering four straight and six of its last seven.  The oddsmakers are over adjusting here for it by making them double-digit road favorites.  If this was a normal game, this line would be high as it is.  But the fact that it’s a sandwich spot for Michigan is not being factored into the line. 

Indiana outgained Penn State by 91 yards on the road last week and probably deserved to win.  QB Peyton Ramsey has been playing some tremendous football in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr.  Ramsey is completing 72.7% of his passes for 1,673 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  He will be able to move the football on this Michigan defense. 

Indiana has played Michigan really tough the last few years.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And despite being 0-4 SU, all four losses came by 11 points or less, including two in overtime.  You can bet the Hoosiers want to end their long losing streak to the Wolverines and will be highly motivated to do so.  And I think they finally have the team capable of pulling off the upset as they are complete on both sides of the football this year and showing some tremendous fight against good competition.  This is their Super Bowl on Senior Day. 

Plays against any team (Michigan) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning at least 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  Indiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after having won four of its last five games.  The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +20.5 

Boston College needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  They sit at 5-5 on the season and have two road games left at Notre Dame & Pitt.  It won’t be easy as they’ll need to pull an upset to get bowl eligible for the 6th time in seven seasons under Steve Addazio. 

The Eagles are in a great spot coming off their bye with two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame.  They are better than their 5-5 record as they have gone 1-3 in games decided by 7 points or less.  Their offense is really hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Eagles have gained 500-plus yards in five of their last six games coming in. 

Boston College is one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging 282 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Notre Dame’s weakness has been stopping the run as they have given up 200-plus rushing yards four times this season and are allowing 169 rushing yards per game overall. 

I had Notre Dame last week against Navy as I thought the 7-point spread was too short.  And Notre Dame rolled to a 52-20 victory.  But Navy rushed for 281 yards on them and gave the game away with four turnovers.  And now Notre Dame will have to face a physical running team two weeks in a row.   

Notre Dame is 4-11 ATS the week after facing Navy the last 15 years.  It’s clear playing Navy takes a toll on them the next week.  Boston College’s offensive line is better than Notre Dame’s defensive line, and that’s why the Eagles have a chance to keep this one close.  That’s the key matchup in this game that is in Boston College’s favor. 

Addazio is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Boston College.  Notre Dame is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after leading its last two games by 14-plus points at halftime.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Boston College is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Notre Dame.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -8 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as 7.5-point road favorites.  And yesterday they beat Eastern Kentucky 89-70 as 7.5-point favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

UNC-Wilmington has some very concerning results this year.  They are 3-3 and lost by 38 at Davidson as 15.5-point favorites.  Perhaps the more concerning result is their 46-47 loss to Cleveland State as 5.5-point favorites last week.  That’s the same Cleveland State team FIU beat 107-61 on the road, giving these teams a common opponent.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I’m shocked FIU isn’t a double-digit favorite.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +14 

I love fading Minnesota in this spot.  The Golden Gophers just had their dreams of making the four-team playoff crushed with their loss to Iowa last week and their unbeaten season is over.  Teams usually struggle to rebound following such a devastating loss, and many times it’s the kind of loss that beats a team twice.  We’re just asking Minnesota not to win by more than two touchdowns this week, though. 

Another reason Minnesota has no incentive to show up this week is because the result of this game means nothing.  They could lose this game and beat Wisconsin next week and get to the Big Ten Championship Game.  They could beat Northwestern this week, but they’d still have to beat Wisconsin next week to get to the title game.  Essentially, this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. 

I am fairly certain this game means more to Northwestern.  It’s their Super Bowl getting to face a Top 25 team at home.  And It’s Senior Day, so you know the Wildcats will want to send their seniors out a winner.  Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best motivators in college football, and his teams show up almost every week as a result.  They will give the Gophers more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend. 

A big reason Northwestern’s record is so bad is because they have played the 24th-toughest schedule in the country.  Minnesota has played the 60th-ranked schedule, which is 34 spots lower.  And Northwestern has four losses this season by 10 points or less, so they haven’t fared well in close games.  I think this one will go down to the wire as well given the terrible spot for the Gophers. 

Minnesota star QB Tanner Morgan hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol.  He is worth a lot of points to the spread over a pair of freshmen backups who are battling to replace him in practice this week if need be.  And this line has been bet from Minnesota -7 to Minnesota -14 throughout the week, indicating that Morgan will likely play.  But if he doesn’t play, we have some tremendous value here.  I think it’s a good bet whether he plays or not, and this line move is unwarranted. 

Minnesota has only beaten Northwestern by more than 14 points one time in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Wildcats are 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Colorado State/Wyoming ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado State +7 

The Colorado State Rams sit at 4-6 and in need of a win to keep their bowl hopes alive.  That assures they’ll show up tonight at Wyoming, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright. 

The Rams have been grossly underrated after a slow start this season.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and have outgained five of seven opponents despite going just 3-4 SU during this stretch.  They have several misleading finals this season against some very good teams. 

On September 21st, Colorado State lost 35-41 to Toledo despite outgaining them by 147 yards.  They only lost 24-34 at Utah State their next game as 24-point dogs.  They did lose 10-24 at home to San Diego State but were only outgained by 3 yards.  They won 35-21 at New Mexico as 5-point favorites and outgained them by 206 yards.  They pulled the 41-31 upset at Fresno as 13.5-point dogs and outgained them by 112 yards.  They blew out UNLV 37-17 as 7.5-point home favorites. 

Last week, Colorado State gave Air Force everything they wanted.  And that’s an Air Force team that is arguably the best in the Mountain West.  The Rams led 14-10 heading into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 28-7 in the final period.  They were going in at the 1-yard line to make it a 3-point game in the final minutes, but threw a 99-yard INT returned for a TD.  They wound up losing by 17 as 10.5-point dogs, which was one of the worst bad beats of the season.  They outgained Air Force by 33 yards in the loss.  I think that misleading final is creating extra line value for us on Colorado State this week. 

Wyoming had a chance to win the Mountain West, but lost at Boise State two weeks ago.  They also lost at Utah State last week and now have no chance to win the Mountain West.  Sitting at 6-4 on the season, they are already bowl eligible and have little to play for.  I certainly question their motivation tonight compared to that of Colorado State, which is still playing for a bowl. 

Wyoming lost starting QB Sean Chambers a couple weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury.  That was a huge blow because backup Tyler Vander Waal has been awful in his place.  Vander Waal is completing just 52% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions while averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt.  He also is not a runner, whereas Chambers was a dual-threat who had 567 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 per carry on the ground.  Not having to defend that dual-threat makes Wyoming’s offense one of the worst in the country now with Vander Waal. 

Colorado State boasts one of the best offenses that Wyoming will have faced this season.  The Rams average 30.6 points and 460.5 yards per game on the season.  Wyoming has faced one of the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the country as their opponents only average 22.9 points and 367 yards per game on the year.  And Wyoming is probably the biggest fraud of any bowl eligible team in the country.  The Cowboys have actually been outgained in eight of their 10 games this season despite their 6-4 record. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Wyoming) - after having lost two of their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado State Friday. 

Note: Buy from +6.5 to +7 (-120)

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5 

The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are proving it quickly with a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They beat Fresno by 14, Boise by 31, Memphis by 8 and UT-Arlington by 20. And now they will get another double-digit win over Houston tonight. 

The Houston Cougars are still being priced like the team that went 33-4 last season.  But the Cougars are far from that team as they lost four starters from that squad in Corey Davis (17.0 PPG), Armani Brooks (13.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG), Galen Robinson Jr. (8.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Braeon Brady (6.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG). 

Houston has opened 4-0 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They were upset at home by BYU 71-72 as 11.5-point favorites.  And they trailed Rice by 9 in the final five minutes before going on a big run to pull out the 97-89 win as 13-point favorites.  Now they will face their toughest test yet by far tonight. 

Oregon is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oregon) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game, after allowing 50 points or less last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Oregon Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Florida International -7.5 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG last year), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap todayt because they are just 2-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs.  Then they went on to blow out Cleveland State 107-61 as identical 7.5-point road favorites.  This team is a sleeping giant folks. 

Eastern Kentucky is picked to finish near the bottom of the Ohio Valley Conference this season and for good reason.  They went just 13-18 last year and lost two double-digit scorers in Nick Mayo (23.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dujuanta Weaver (10.2 PPG).  That’s a lot of production lost.  The Colonels are 3-2, but their three wins have all come at home against Chattanooga, Chillicothe and Alice Lloyd.  They lost by 42 at Kentucky and by 8 at home to Western Kentucky. 

Eastern Kentucky is 1-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Colonels are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Golden Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  FIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Florida International Friday. 

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UConn -3.5 

The UConn Huskies are in Year 2 under Dan Hurley.  I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a 2-1 start this season with an impressive upset win over Florida.  They returned four key players who all averaged at least 8.4 points per game last year. 

Christian Vital (19.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is a senior guard who is among the AAC’s best players.  Josh Carlton (13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) was the AAC’s most improved player last year and is taking that next step.  Alterique Gilbert (12.7 PPG) is finally healthy after battling shoulder injuries his entire career.  Tyler Polley (12.7 PPG) is a sweet stroke and is shooting 47.1% from 3-point range after making 38% last year. 

Buffalo is a team I’m looking to fade in the early going.  They are coming off their most wins in program history, and as a result they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama.  Jim Whitesell is in his first season and the Bulls have to replace five crucial seniors, including CJ Massinburg (18.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG last year) and Jeremy Harris (14.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team. 

We saw a sign of things to come in Buffalo’s opener when it was upset 63-68 at home by Dartmouth as an 11.5-point favorite.  And their two wins came against Nazareth and Harvard, so this will be a big step up in class facing UConn tonight. 

UConn is 17-5 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Huskies will have gained a ton of confidence with that upset win over Florida, and it will carry over to this matchup with Buffalo tonight.  Bet UConn Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +8 

The Toledo Rockets are among the favorites to win the MAC this season and for good reason.  Toledo head coach Td Kowalcyk enters his 10th season with the program, and the Rockets are a perennial contender.  They are coming off a 25-8 season and a first-place finish in the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets return three starters in Marreon Jackson (11.7 PPG, 4.2 APG last year), Luke Knapke (10.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and William Jackson (8.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG).  The Rockets are off to a 3-1 start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Valparaiso in their opener by 2 points.  They have blowout wins over Marshall (by 26), Robert Morris (by 14) and Howard (by 44). 

Notre Dame is coming off a disastrous 14-19 season.  The Fighting Irish returned five starters this year, but they don’t have much talent.  That’s clear when you consider despite being 4-1 SU they are just 1-4 ATS this season.  They only beat Marshall by 10 as 19-point home favorites and Presbyterian by 10 as 26.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Toledo won at Marshall by 26 to give them a common opponent and a big reason they can stay within 8 points here. 

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC opponents.  The Rockets are 11-3 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  Take Toledo Thursday. 

20* Colts/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 this season in games started and finished by Jacoby Brissett this season.  They lost the only two games he didn’t play the entire way to the Steelers and Dolphins.  But they got him back last week, and the Colts promptly crushed the Jaguars 33-13 at home. 

Brissett wasn’t asked to do much because the Colts ran all over the Jaguars for 264 rushing yards.  That’s bad news for the Texans, which just gave up 263 rushing yards to the Ravens last week.  The Texans lost that game 7-41 and were outgained by 259 yards.  This is a team that I just don’t trust now now because they lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury and their offensive and defensive lines are terrible. 

Yes, the Texans have the flash with Watson and his receivers, but the Colts have the substance.  The Colts can sustain success because they have one of the league’s best offensive lines and also one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Colts are 11th in total defense at 325.6 yards per game while the Texans are 25th at 374.4 yards per game allowed.  And keep in mind the Colts were banged up on D for much of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been now.  And the Texans are banged up on D now. 

The Colts own the Texans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indianapolis is 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston.  The Texans are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. AFC South opponents.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet the Colts Thursday. 

15* Blazers/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -12 

The Milwaukee Bucks are back at it again this season challenging to be the best team in the NBA in the regular season.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with five of those wins coming by double-digits and seven of them by 8 points or more.  They are blowing teams in out on a regular basis, which is why I don’t mind laying this number with them Thursday. 

That’s especially the case when you consider they are up against a banged-up Blazers team that will be playing without Damian Lillard tonight.  They were already without Just Nurkic and Zach Collins, and they could be without both Hassan Whiteside and Anfernee Simons, who are both questionable. 

The Blazers have been a real dumpster fire of late, going 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  Their last two games were really dreadful as they lost by 24 at Houston and by 11 at New Orleans.  And they just recently lost Lillard to injury prior to that Pelicans game, so they were playing poorly with him, and now they’ll be even worse without his 28.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. 

The Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Portland is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bucks are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Blazers, including a 143-100 home win last year.  Roll with the Bucks Thursday. 

15* NC State/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2 

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 4-6 on the season.  They have a lot more to play for tonight as they still have a chance to make a bowl game if they win out.  And with a game on deck at home against rival UNC, they have a legitimate chance to win their final two games of the season.  Wrong team favored here. 

Yes, NC State is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  But that’s why we are getting great value on the Wolfpack as underdogs to the worst team in the ACC in Georgia Tech tonight.  And keep in mind those games were closer than the final scores.  NC State outgained three of its six opponents during this 1-5 skid, including outgaining Louisville by 51 yards last week in a 20-34 loss. 

Georgia Tech is every bit as bad as its 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS record would indicate.  The Yellow Jackets have been outgained in nine of their 10 games this season with the only exception being outgaining a bad Duke team by 6 yards.  It’s a Georgia Tech team getting outgained by 121.7 yards per game on the season.  To compare, NC State is still outgaining opponents by 6.3 yards per game on the season. 

Plays on road underdogs (NC State) - after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that’s off a loss by 17 points or more are 64-27 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Georgia Tech is coming off a 45-0 home loss to Virginia Tech while getting held to just 134 total yards.  Yet the Yellow Jackets are favored this week.  Give me a break.  Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games.  The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take NC State Thursday. 

15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 

The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. 

The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion.  They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him.  And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. 

Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Celtics Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +6.5 

I like the Portland Pilots catching points in this in-state rivalry with Portland State.  The Pilots clearly came into this season undervalued after going 7-25 last year and 0-16 in WCC play.  I think they’ll continue to be a money maker moving forward. 

Indeed, Portland is off to a 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  After beating Williamette by 50 in their opener, they gave USC a battle in a 65-76 road loss as 23-point dogs.  Then they upset San Jose State 72-57 as 3-point road dogs before covering against Maine in a 71-62 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 31.5 points in their three lined games. 

Portland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky this year and deservedly so.  They lost three starters and only brought back two players who averaged more than 4.3 points per game from last season.  They are 1-2 this season with their only win coming at home over Puget Sound by a final of 94-69.  They lost at Indiana and Hawaii and are coming off a trip to the Island. 

Portland State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Vikings are 0-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Portland State.  Roll with Portland Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UNLV -4 

The UNLV Rebels made a great hire in the offseason by nabbing T.J. Otzelberger from South Dakota State.  He went 70-33 in his three seasons there while guiding the Jack Rabbits to two NCAA Tournaments and an NIT.  While several players transferred or graduated, Otzelberger was able to keep two starters in Amauri Hardy (13.1 PPG, 3.5 APG last year) and Cheikh Mbacke Diong (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 40 blocks). 

The Rebels have won and covered their two home games against IUPU-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian.  And they are certainly battle-tested in the early going with losses to Kansas State (by 4), Cal (by 4) and UCLA (by 17).  This tough early schedule will have the Rebels undervalued moving forward after a 2-3 start.  Hardy (19.0 PPG) is carrying the team, while transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) from Texas and Donnie Tillman (12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) from Utah have both proven to be huge gets for Otzelberger. 

Texas State also returns just two starters from last year and comes in overvalued after a 24-10 season.  The Bobcats are 3-2 with their three wins all coming at home against cupcakes in Texas Lutheran, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State.  They lost their two road games to Air Force and Baylor.  And now they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after beating Jackson State at home on Monday while having to travel to UNLV.  The Bobcats won’t be prepared for this game at all. 

Danny Kaspar is 10-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Texas State.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Otzelberger is 23-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in all games as a head coach.  Bet UNLV Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32 

The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season.  The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none.  Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet.  And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight. 

The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury.  He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night. 

I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight.  Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green.  They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result.  They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio.  Take Akron Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 

The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now.  They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson.  There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season.  They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road.  Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. 

The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -5 

The Northern Illinois Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a huge 31-28 road win at Toledo to improve to 4-6 on the season.  Now they have two home games to finish the season and have a legit chance of making a bowl.  They need to handle their business here against Eastern Michigan to do so. 

Eastern Michigan is 5-5 this season with a home game on deck next week against Kent State that they will be heavily favored in.  They know they can afford to lose this game and still make a bowl.  Sure, they want to beat Northern Illinois, but it’s not as urgent to win this game as it is for the Huskies. 

I simply believe NIU is the better team despite having the worse record.  The Huskies have played a brutal schedule this season with seven road games compared to three home games.  And those seven road games featured non-conference games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, as well as trips to four of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, Miami, Central Michigan and Toledo.  The Huskies are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 18.7 points per game and holding foes to 12.3 points and 217.3 yards per game. 

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  These teams have faced the same four opponents.  Eastern Michigan is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS against them, getting outscored by 1.7 points per game and outgained by 68.7 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  Northern Illinois is 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS against those four teams, outscoring them by 1.7 points per game and only getting outgained by 27.3 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play. 

I like the matchup for NIU on both sides of the ball.  Their weakness this season has been stopping the run, but EMU only averages 118 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  NIU is great against the pass, giving up just 208 passing yards per game, and they’ll be able to slow down an EMU offense averaging 273 passing yards per game.  NIU has topped 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games coming in and should be able to run the ball at will on an EMU defense that allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  The Eagles have also been terrible against the pass, giving up 63.4% completions and 8.3 yards per attempt. 

Northern Illinois is 11-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Eastern Michigan.  The Huskies are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog over a conference opponent.  The Eagles are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Eastern Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -7 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap tonight because they are just 1-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs. 

Cleveland State is picked to finish last in the Horizon this season, and I fully agree with it.  The Vikings went 10-21 last season and brought in a new head coach in Dennis Gates.  They lost all five starters from last year and only brought back one key reserve.  The Vikings are 1-3 this season with a 35-point loss to Minnesota, a 20-point loss to Missouri State and a 27-point loss to South Carolina.  They are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.  Take Florida International Tuesday. 

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs -4 

The Kansas City Chiefs just got Patrick Mahomes back from injury last week.  He played as good as he could have and the Chiefs deserved to win, but special teams mistakes cost them in a 32-35 road loss to the Titans.  It’s a Titans team that just simply has their number and has beaten some very good teams at home the last few seasons. 

The Chiefs had 530 total yards on the Titans and obviously should have won in a very misleading loss.  They outgained the Titans by 159 yards.  Mahomes went 36-of-50 passing for 446 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  He has his full compliment of weapons now and the Chiefs will be tough to tame the rest of the way.  The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 points and 404.4 yards per game this season, and that includes 2.5 games where they were missing Mahomes.  I expect them to get 30-plus Monday. 

Philip Rivers just hasn’t looked right all season.  He is finally starting to show his age as his arm strength is awful.  He went 17-of-31 passing for 207 yards with 3 interceptions against the Raiders last week and it would have been 5 INT's if not for two that were called back by penalties.  The Chargers are scoring just 20.7 points per game this season.  While the Chargers have a solid defense, their offense is holding them back, and I don’t think they can match the Chiefs score for score in this one. 

I like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, which makes them even more motivated this week.  The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  The Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Chargers in games played away from Arrowhead Stadium.  Bet the Chiefs Monday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point dogs on Thursday.  Now they get a shot at revenge just four days later and are at home this time around catching 9 points. 

It’s pretty amazing the Bulls were able to stay with 9 points of the Bucks on the road while shooting just 40.9% as a team.  I have to think they are going to have a better shooting night this time around, and I have a hard time believing the Bucks are going to get to the free throw line a ridiculous 47 times again. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -25 

The Kentucky Wildcats are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They were just upset by Evansville as 24.5-point favorites last time out on Tuesday.  They’ve had nearly a full week to stew over that loss and will now be looking to take out their frustration on Utah Valley State tonight. 

Utah Valley State is 3-1 this season but has played a pretty easy schedule.  It’s a Utah Valley team that lost four starters who all averaged at least 8.5 points per game last year.  Their lone returning starter is Isaiah White, who averaged 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds last year.   

It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Utah Valley, which hasn’t had much time to prepare for Kentucky.  The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Roll with Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7 

This young Grizzlies team has really turned it around after a slow start this season and they’re becoming fun to watch because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset wins over the Spurs, Hornets and Jazz as combined 21-point dogs. 

The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season.  Despite being 8-3 SU, they are just 3-6-2 ATS with a lot of close wins.  Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  And if they do get a win Sunday over the Grizzlies, I believe it will be by 7 points or less. 

This has been a closely-contested series with each of the last five meetings decide by 7 points or less.  The Nuggets haven’t beaten the Grizzlies by more than 6 points in any of the last 15 meetings in Memphis.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing Memphis pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +11 

I like the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They want revenge from a 25-28 loss as 10.5-point dogs to the 49ers just two weeks ago.  And after losing by only a field goal, they are now catching 11 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much. 

The Cardinals found something in the 2nd half with their hurry-up offense that gave the 49ers problems.  They gained 357 yards on the 49ers' vaunted defense, which was a season-high allowed by the 49ers.  Look for them to go to the hurry-up sooner in this one to try and slow down that San Francisco pass rush. 

The 49ers will be on a short week after going into overtime against the Seahawks Monday Night.  They will be tired, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Their bubble was burst as their unbeaten season is now over.  That just screams hangover. 

Plus, the 49ers had a ton of guys go down with injury in that loss to the Seahawks.  They lost two defensive linemen in Ronald Blair and D.J. Jones.  Center Weston Richburg left the game with a hand injury.  WR Emmanuel Sanders left with a rib injury, and RB Matt Brida left with an ankle injury.  LT Joe Staley just returned last week only to go down with a finger injury that will sideline him.  George Kittle sat out that game with a knee injury and may not be ready to return.  The 49ers are as vulnerable as they have been all season due to all these injuries. 

The 49ers are clearly overvalued due to their record as they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games.  Now they are double-digit favorites here against a division rival when they shouldn’t be.  Arizona has quietly gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, yet they still get no respect from the books. 

The 49ers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games following a Monday Night Football game.  Arizona is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 against good defensive teams that allow 260 or fewer yards per game.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 division road games in a rematch.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have won 10 straight and will be highly motivated to keep this winning streak going as long as they can.  I think we are getting them cheap here against the Sacramento Kings as only 3-point road favorites. 

The Kings are in a hangover spot off their tough 2-point loss to the Lakers on Friday.  And this is a Kings team getting a lot of respect now after playing the Lakers close and covering six in a row coming in.  But they are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, and I just don’t think they can keep up their good play without Fox especially. 

The Celtics are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings with the Kings, and their domination in this series continues today.  Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -4.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because bettors simply don’t want to buy into Lamar Jackson.  The fact of the matter is Jackson is a good quarterback and an MVP candidate.  And until bettors believe it, they’ll continue to be undervalued. 

The Ravens have won five straight and covered three straight coming in.  That includes a 14-point win at Seattle, a 17-point home win over New England, and a 36-point demolition of Cincinnati on the road.  This team is hungry for more and smells blood in the water.  Now the Ravens have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Patriots. 

Jackson leads a Ravens offense that is 1st in scoring at 33.3 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 421.7 yards per game.  Offensive coordinator Greg Romans in his his first year with the team.  Romans is the best dual-threat QB coordinator in the history of the NFL.  He was responsible for Colin Kaepernick’s rise with the 49ers, and he also led Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he has the best dual-threat he’s ever had in Jackson. 

Defensively, the Ravens started the season pretty rough.  But since getting healthy on that side of the ball with the return of star CB Jimmy Smith and the trade for CB Marcus Peters, the Ravens have been dominant defensively here down the stretch.  The Ravens have allowed just 17.8 points per game and only 303 yards per game during their five-game winning streak. 

Teams coming off a bye following a London game are 0-6 ATS this season.  And I worry about the Texans being fat and happy following their 26-3 win over the Jaguars.  But that was a misleading win as the Jaguars gave the game way with four turnovers and simply couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  Almost all the turnovers came deep in Houston territory. 

J.J. Watt was one of the most destructive forces in the NFL this season before going down with a season-ending injury a few weeks back.  Now this is a Houston defense that is going to struggle to stop anyone the rest of the season.  They gave up 30 points and 383 yards to the Colts in a 23-30 loss three games back, gave up 24 points and 378 yards to the Raiders in a fortunate 27-24 home win two games ago, and the Jaguars had 356 total yards on them last time out despite only scoring 3 points.  This high-powered Ravens offense is going to have it way with this Houston defense. 

Houston is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off a bye following their trip to London.  Look for them to put forth their best effort of the season today, especially with QB Nick Foles returning as their starting quarterback.  Gardner Minshew did a good job of holding down the fort while he was gone, but Foles is still clearly the better starter. 

The Jaguars are about as healthy as they’ve been all season now too after the bye.  The same cannot be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without T.Y. Hilton, and they are 0-7 in their last seven games in which Hilton has sat.  They simply lack weapons at receiver without him and are too predictable.  He is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. 

I think the Jaguars come in undervalued after their blowout loss to the Texans in London.  Well, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  But the Jaguars gave it away with four turnovers as Minshew had his worst game as a starter, which ultimately led to Foles replacing him this week. 

The Colts are coming off a 12-16 upset loss to the Dolphins as 11-point favorites.  They managed just 300 yards on Miami and committed three turnovers.  QB Jacoby Brissett is going to give it a go this week, but he is clearly still going to be slowed by a knee injury and won’t be 100%.  And now that he doesn’t have TY Hilton, he’s going to struggle against a solid Jaguars defense. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Jacksonville) - off a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC opponents.  The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +21.5 

The Utah Utes went into their bye week fat and happy after beating Washington on the road 33-28.  Now they’ve had two weeks to get patted on the back after appearing in the Top 10 of the college football playoff rankings.  I expect them to come out flat this week against UCLA. 

And I just simply believe it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Utes after they have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are quickly becoming one of the most public teams in the country as the betting public keeps getting rewarded by backing them.  I think that stops this weekend. 

UCLA was left for dead after a 1-5 start this season.  But we saw UCLA struggle in the first half of the season last year and play great in the 2nd half.  The same thing has happened this year.  UCLA has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games to improve to 4-5 on the season. 

They upset Stanford 34-16 as 4-point road dogs. They beat Arizona State 42-32 as 3.5-point road dogs in a game they led 42-10 going into the 4th quarter before pulling their starters and getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  And they dominated Colorado 31-14 as 6.5-point home favorites last time out. 

Now the Bruins need to win two of their last three games to make a bowl game and will be ‘all in’ this week.  Not to mention, a victory Saturday would move UCLA into a tie for first place in the Pac-12 South.  The Bruins also come off their bye week, so this young team will only get better with the extra prep time. 

Getting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson back from injury has made all the difference for the Bruins.  Being without him is the reason they lost to Arizona and Oregon State, or they’d have a better record than they do.  And they have gotten power running back Joshua Kelley going.  He has rushed for 466 yards and 7 touchdowns during their three-game winning streak.   

In fact, the Bruins have rushed for at least 200 yards in five straight games for the first time since 1978.  They are starting to play the way that Chip Kelly envisioned when he took over the program last year.  Kelly is 14-1 ATS in road games after a game where his team committed one or fewer turnovers as a college football head coach.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

15* LSU/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +21.5 

This is an awful spot to back LSU.  I’ve been backing LSU a lot this season, but I realize this is the worst spot they have been in all year.  I’m going to fade them because of it and grab Ole Miss +21.5 at home to keep it within three touchdowns. 

LSU is coming off a grueling, program-changing 46-41 win over Alabama last week on the road.  They won’t have much left in the tank after that win, and they certainly won’t be fully focused for Ole Miss this week.  They have been getting patted on the back all week with their No. 1 playoff ranking.  It’s only human nature for these young players to have an emotional letdown off such a huge win.  They probably think they just have to show up to win this week, but that won’t be the case. 

Ole Miss made easy work of New Mexico State in a 41-3 victory as 28-point favorites last week.  They got to rest their starters in the second half and save some energy for LSU this week, because they know they are going to need it.  Sitting at 4-6 on the season, this is Ole Miss’ Super Bowl, a chance to knock off the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  They will be more motivated in this game than any other game this season. 

Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee is one of the best-kept secrets in the country.  The Ole Miss offense has been humming every since he took over at quarterback, and they can match LSU score for score with him at the helm.  Plumlee has thrown for 66 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 777 yards and seven scores on 6.8 per carry.  His dual-threat ability gives the Rebels a chance to keep the chains and the clock moving and to keep that potent LSU offense on the sideline. 

While the LSU offense is possibly the best in program history, the LSU defense isn’t as stout as it has been in years’ past.  The Tigers are giving up 22.3 points and 340.4 yards per game, including 32.5 points and 446.2 yards per game in their four road games this season.  Texas scored 38, Vanderbilt scored 38, Alabama scored 41 and Florida scored 28 on this LSU defense.  It can be done, and the Rebels will pull out all the stops this week.  That’s especially the case knowing they have a bye on deck next week to get ready for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. 

LSU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (LSU) - a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards per game, after gaining 525 or more total yards per game in their last two games are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -2 

The Chicago Bulls are playing much better of late after a slow start.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and starting to live up to the lofty expectations they had prior to the season.  This is a team with so much talent that they simply cannot stay down for long. 

After hanging tough with Milwaukee in a losing effort on the road last time out, the Bulls return home here to face the reeling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets have lost three straight coming in and are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th straight road game, and it’s clear they are running out of gas. 

Making matters worse for the Nets is that they just recently lost starter Caris LeVert to a thumb injury.  And Kyrie Irving is trying to play through a shoulder injury that is clearly hampering him.  Irving has been well below his season average of 28.5 PPG during the three-game losing streak.  He had 17 against Denver, 27 against Utah, and 15 against Phoenix.  Irving is questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Look for the Bulls to bounce back with a win and cover tonight at home.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday. 

15* Texas/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Texas +7 

For starters, this is the first time that Texas has ever been an underdog to Iowa State dating back to at least 1980.  And not only are they dogs, they are 7-point dogs here, which gives us room to spare even if Iowa State does win this game.  The Cyclones simply aren’t 7 points better than Texas. 

The Longhorns have a lot more to play for than Iowa State.  If they win this game and win at Baylor next week, they could be going to the Big 12 title game.  They would need Oklahoma to beat Baylor this week, but considering the Sooners are double-digits favorites, they chances of them winning that game are pretty good. 

Texas put themselves in this position by erasing a 14-0 deficit to Kansas State last week and coming back to win 27-24.  However, that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate.  The Longhorns had a 477-304 yard edge over the Wildcats, outgaining them by 173 yards.  The Wildcats got a kickoff return TD that made it interesting late, but the Longhorns were able to hold them off for the win.  And now that puts them in this Big 12 title chase position they are in. 

Iowa State has to be feeling snake-bitten.  The Cyclones have four losses this season by a combined 11 points.  I think the loss to Oklahoma last week was the last straw.  They trailed by 21 points in the fourth quarter, came storming back to tie it, but decided to go for a 2-point conversion and the win and came up short.  They have bounced back nicely from losses before, but I think they have taken all the close losses they can handle this season.  I don’t expect them to be in a good mental state now that they are officially eliminated from Big 12 title contention. 

Tom Herman is an animal as an underdog.  Herman is 15-3 ATS as an underdog in his head-coaching career, which includes 11 outright upsets.  Not to mention, dating back to his time as an offensive coordinator, he is 25-4 ATS as an underdog.  Iowa State is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa State) - after having lost two of their last there games, with a winning record on the season are 47-16 (74.6%) ATS over the last fie seasons.  Plays on road underdogs (Texas) - off a home conference win against an opponent that’s off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Texas Saturday. 

20* Navy/Notre Dame Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -7 

Notre Dame opened as a double-digit favorite where they should have been against Navy.  This number has been bet all the way down to Notre Dame -7 now, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Fighting Irish laying only a touchdown to the Midshipmen. 

No team has improved more since last year than Navy, which went 3-10 and lost to Army again.  Now the Midshipmen have opened 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and betting public has taken notice.  Simply put, the time to back Navy was the first half of the season, not now that everyone has caught on.  That’s why we’ll ’sell high’ on the Midshipmen this week as they are one of the most popular public underdogs on the board. 

Navy has benefitted from playing the 97th-toughest schedule in the country, while Notre Dame has played the 31st-toughest.  That’s 66 spots difference between these teams in strength of schedule.  This will easily be Navy’s toughest test yet this season, and much tougher than their 23-35 loss at Memphis when they were 11-point dogs.  Notre Dame is better than Memphis, yet it is only a 7-point favorite compared to 11 for Memphis.  That fact alone shows you that there’s value with Notre Dame here. 

The Fighting Irish really impressed me last week by going into Duke and handling their business 38-7 as 7-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in after suffering their second loss of the season at Michigan, but they did not.  They suffered a hangover the next week against VA Tech and needed a late touchdown to win 21-20 as 17.5-point favorites.  I was on VA Tech in that game and felt fortunate to get the cover as Notre Dame outgained the Hokies by 207 yards.  Notre Dame went on to destroy Duke last week and outgain them by 272 yards.  The hangover is gone, and it’s clear Notre Dame is still motivated to get the best bowl they can and another double-digit win season. 

Notre Dame has been a double-digit favorite against Navy in seven of the last eight meetings.  That’s how rare this single-digit line is.  And when the line has been low, Notre Dame has been a bad football team.  That’s not the case this year as the Fighting Irish are still one of the 15-20 best teams in the country.  Notre Dame is 22-4 SU in the last 26 meetings while being favored by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Notre Dame is 11-2 SU in the last 13 home meetings and has been favored by an average of 20.1 points per game.  These numbers also show that this -7 price is cheap. 

Plays against any team (Navy) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, a team that wins 80% or more of their games on the season while playing another team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Notre Dame is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home games with 12 of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  Ken Niumatalolo is 5-15 ATS in road games off a bye week as the coach of Navy.  Brian Kelly is 30-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% in all games he has coached.  The Fighting Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -9 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire in the second half of the season and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart.  It was clear after that run that they’d be a force in 2019-20 with all they had returning. 

Indeed, the Panthers returned six of their top seven scorers from last year.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by a sophomore in A.J. Green, who averaged 15.0 PPG last year.  Green is their highest rated recruit in program history and likely a future NBA talent. 

I like the fact that Northern Iowa took a trip to Italy in August to bond.  It has paid dividends in the early going as the Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with two wins by double-digits.  Now they are laying less than doubles against a Northern Colorado team I expect them to handle at home today. 

Northern Colorado is returning four starters this year, but they play in a much weaker conference in the Big Sky. And their opening 45-69 loss at Texas as 16.5-point dogs says everything that needs to be said about this team.  Texas isn’t expected to be very good this season, and I believe Northern Iowa would give the Longhorns a run for their money. 

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Expect Northern Iowa to continue its solid play in the early going this season and win this game by double-digits.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +14.5 

The Penn State Nittany Lions just had their bubble worst.  After starting 8-0, they just lost to Minnesota on the road last week and likely won’t be going to the four-team playoff now.  I said they were a fraud all along anyway, so it was about time they lost a close game after surviving several others.  And if they win this game Saturday against Indiana, it won’t be by more than two touchdowns. 

Penn State is in a ‘hangover’ spot from that loss to Minnesota.  It’s also a ’sandwich’ spot because they have a huge game at Ohio State on deck.  Look for the Nittany Lions to come out flat today against Indiana.  I love the fact that this is an early 12:00 EST start time because the fans won’t be nearly as rowdy as they would be for a ‘white out’.  Also, fans won’t be as excited now that the Nittany Lions aren’t undefeated any more. 

The reason I’ve said Penn State is a fraud this year is because they were outgained in four of their first eight games this season despite being 8-0.  They were outgained by both Buffalo and Pitt at home, were outgained by 62 yards in a fortunate 17-12 win at Iowa, and were outgained by 124 yards in a fortunate 28-21 home win over Michigan.  They have been outgained in three of their five home games this season. 

Indiana is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-2 this season.  And the Hoosiers have been flying under the radar all year as they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have three wins by 31-plus points during this stretch, and road wins over Maryland and Nebraska.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road at Michigan State by 9 back before Sparty had a ton of players get injured and were playing well.  Now Indiana has two full weeks to prepare for Penn State after having a bye following its 34-3 dismantling of Northwestern two weekends ago. 

Jameis Franklin has been awful as a head coach of Penn State following any kind of loss.  Indeed, Franklin is 3-14 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Nittany Lions having never covered in this spot.  He clearly just doesn’t get through to his players when they are coming off a defeat. 

Adding to Indiana’s motivation this week is the fact that it lost 28-33 at home to Penn State last year as 14-point dogs in a game they felt like they should have won.  The Hoosiers had a 32-20 edge in first downs and a 554-417 yard edge, outgaining the Nittany Lions by 137 yards.  They haven’t forgotten about that defeat and will want to exact some revenge here. 

Plays on road underdogs (Indiana) - an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards per game against an average offensive team (390-440 YPG), after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* Michigan State/Michigan FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -13.5 

Mark Dantonio just seems to have lost his magic at Michigan State.  The Spartans went 3-9 in 2016 and just 7-6 in 2018.  They will be fortunate to even make a bowl game this year.  I just don’t like the mental state of the Spartans right now off four straight losses while going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

After getting blasted by three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State by 24, Wisconsin by 38 and Penn State by 21, the Spartans returned from their bye last week and seemed primed for a good performance.  Instead, they blew a 28-3 lead and lost to lowly Illinois 34-37 as 16-point favorites.  I don’t see how you come back from that kind of a defeat as they gave up 27 points in the 4th quarter. 

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than Michigan State.  They lost leading receiver Darrell Stewart a few weeks ago to a leg injury.  They lost leading tackler Joe Bachie for the season recently, who is the heart and soul of their defense.  Meanwhile, Michigan is almost fully healthy with only three players listed on the injury report compared to 15 for Michigan State.  And the Wolverines come in rested and ready to go off their bye week and ready to finish the season strong. 

It’s like the Wolverines flipped the switch after falling behind 21-0 against Penn State.  They came back and nearly won in a 21-28 loss in a ‘white out’ game at night at Penn State.  They outgained the Nittany Lions by 124 yards and probably should have won.  They responded with one of the most impressive wins by any team this season, a 45-14 home win over Notre Dame while outgaining the Fighting Irish by 257 yards.  And last time out they avoided a letdown and rolled Maryland 38-7 as 21.5-point road favorites. 

This Michigan offense has come to life in the second half of the season.  The Wolverines are averaging 36.5 points per game in their last four games despite facing some elite defenses in Notre Dame and Penn State.  I just don’t see how Michigan State can keep up with their putrid offense, which averages just 23.1 points and 366 yards per game this season.  Michigan is 5-0 at home this season and allowing just 11.8 points and 227 yards per game at the Big House. 

Michigan State has been a thorn in Michigan’s side, especially before Jim Harbaugh took over.  But the Wolverines have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-7 win last year on the road.  This is their chance to kick ‘little brother’ while he is down, and you know the Wolverines are going to want to take full advantage.  I see no way the Spartans stay within two touchdowns. 

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Michigan Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +17.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks are certainly improved in their first season under Les Miles.  They played Oklahoma (20-45), Texas (48-50) and Texas Tech (37-34) tougher than the books expected while going 3-0 ATS.  And after they finally got their Big 12 win over Texas Tech, they suffered a letdown the next week and were blown out by Kansas State. 

Now it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Jayhawks after everyone has forgotten about them following that loss to Kansas State, which simply owns them.  The Jayhawks have had two full weeks to stew over that loss and get ready for Oklahoma State.  I think the bye week came at a perfect time for them. 

Oklahoma State is also off a bye week, but it’s bad timing for them.  The Cowboys are coming off two straight wins over Iowa State as 11-point road dogs and TCU as 1-point home favorites.  They had some momentum built up by catching both Iowa State and TCU off guard.  Now they are back in the role of the favorite, which hasn’t gone too well for them. 

The Cowboys were previously upset by Texas Tech as 9.5-point road favorites in a 35-45 loss.  They were also upset at home as 6-point favorites against Baylor in a 27-45 defeat.  I just don’t think the Cowboys can be trusted to lay this big of a number in conference play because they turn the ball over too much, and their three conference wins have come by 7, 7 and 13 points. 

Kansas stud QB Carter Stanley is back healthy now after getting knocked out of that loss to Kansas State with an injury.  Stanley is completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,015 yards with 19 touchdowns and only seven interceptions while averaging a solid 7.6 yards per attempt.  Pooka Williams has been productive since coming back from suspension, rushing for 765 yards and three touchdowns on 5.1 per carry.   

This is one of the most improved offenses in the country and they’re fully capable of matching Oklahoma State score for score.  The Jayhawks showed it in their 48-50 loss at Texas and their 37-34 win over Texas Tech, which are two teams that have beaten Oklahoma State this season.  The Cowboys are giving up 32.2 points and 463.7 yards per game in Big 12 play, and they can’t be laying 17 points with that putrid defense. 

The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play well here having won three of their last five with upset wins over Minnesota (137-121) as 3.5-point home dogs, San Antonio (113-109) as 10.5-point road dogs and Charlotte (119-117) as 2.5-point road dogs.  This young team is growing together quickly and playing tremendous on the offensive end, shooting 50.6% or better in four of their last five games coming in. 

The Utah Jazz came into the season getting a ton of publicity for the moves they made in the offseason.  They were a popular dark horse title contender pick in the West.  But they’ve struggled to live up to expectations, going 8-3 SU but 4-7 ATS on the season.  That includes a 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS record in road games this year.  Their only road cover came against the hapless Golden State Warriors. 

I think Mike Conley’s feelings toward Memphis work against him here.  He loves the city of Memphis as they gave him every opportunity to be a star.  This will be his first time playing in Memphis as an opponent.  I don’t see it going well for him, and I think the Grizzlies have the motivational edge because of it.  The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Jazz.   

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Grizzlies Friday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island +2 

The Rhode Island Rams were in a rebuilding year last season and went just 18-15 (9-9 A-10) in David Cox’s first season on the job.  But now Cox returns all five starters and a ton of experience, which makes the Rams a dark horse contender to compete for the A-10 title. 

The five returning starters are Fatts Russell (14.2 PPG last year), Cyril Langevine (14.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Jeff Dowtin (15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG), Tyrese Martin (8.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Jermaine Harris (4.4 PPG).  That’s a ton of returning production, and I think the fact that they are coming off a road loss to Maryland has the Rams undervalued coming into this home game against Alabama tonight. 

Alabama is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  They returned three starters but lost three key players in Tevin Mack, Donta Hall and Dazon Ingram.  Top-100 recruit Juwan Gary is out for the season with a knee injury, stud JC transfer James Rojas is also out for the season with a knee injury, and Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly is out for the season due to being ineligible.  Returning starter Herbert Jones is questionable to play tonight with an elbow injury. 

This is an Alabama team that was upset at home by Pennsylvania in their opener.  I don’t think they should be favored on the road here against this veteran Rhode Island team when they can’t even beat Penn at home.  The Crimson Tide will be playing their first road game of the season here.  They have only three days to get ready for Rhode Island, while the Rams have had five days off since the loss to Maryland to prepare.   

Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Rhode Island Friday. 

25* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall -4.5 

Motivation will be on Marshall’s side this week.  The Thundering Herd are 0.5 games behind the FAU Owls for first place in the C-USA East.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Owls after winning on the road as 4-point dogs, so they control their own destiny. 

Conversely, Louisiana Tech will have a hard time getting motivated this week because they have the inside track to win the much weaker C-USA West.  They are 5-0 in the conference and a loss to Marshall will not hurt them because they hold the tiebreaker over 4-1 Southern Miss after winning head-to-head.  So they essentially have a two-game lead in the division. 

The spot is also a good one for Marshall, which comes off a bye week and has had two full weeks to get ready for LA Tech.  Conversely, LA Tech will be on a short week after playing this past Saturday against North Texas.  It’s crazy how the schedule makers have given Marshall such a huge rest advantage coming into this weeknight game. 

Louisiana Tech has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have played the 145th-ranked schedule.  That means some FCS teams have even played harder schedules than they have.  Their eight wins have come against Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas.  And they barely beat Grambling (20-14) and Rice (23-20). 

There are rumors surrounding the Louisiana Tech program that several key players could be suspended for this game, including QB J’mar Smith, who has thrown for 2,483 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 226 yards and two scores.  If the news comes out soon, this line will jump even more than it already has.  The good news is I like Marshall at this line regardless if anyone for LA Tech is suspended.  It would just be an added bonus if they were suspended. 

Plays against any team (LA Tech) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season against a team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss to Cincinnati.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  That’s a big reason why they haven’t lived up to the hype at 3-6 on the season.  But they’re not dead yet.  They turned things around with a huge 19-16 home win over the Bills last week, and now they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way to make a run in the second half of the season. 

The Browns are in a stretch here of four of five home games.  They host the Steelers, Dolphins and Bengals coming up, and they have winnable road games against the Steelers, Cardinals and Bengals.  They also host the Ravens.  They could conceivably run the table against this schedule as they will likely only be underdogs twice, and small dogs at that. 

While the Browns are only getting outgunned by 7.7 yards per game this season, the Steelers are getting outgained by 49.4 yards per game.  The Browns aren’t as bad as their 3-6 record, and the Steelers aren’t as good as their 5-4 record.  I believe the oddsmakers are warranted in making the Browns the favorites in this game despite having the worse record. 

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers have played a home-heavy schedule this year with six home games compared to only three road games.  They have just one road win all season, and that was a fluky win over the Chargers.  They finish the season playing five of their final seven games on the highway and their true colors will show here down the stretch. 

It’s a Steelers offense that I just cannot trust with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.8 yards per game.  They were very fortunate to win each of their last two games as they managed just 273 yards against the Colts and 273 yards against the Rams as well.  The Steelers have forced a league-high 25 turnovers defensively, and there’s no way they can keep up this pace.  They have forced multiple turnovers in a whopping eight straight games coming in.  I don’t trust teams that rely on turnovers. 

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Browns Thursday. 

15* Mavs/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 102-106 home loss to the New York Knicks on November 8th as 10.5-point favorites.  They don’t even have to wait a week to get their revenge as now they play the Knicks on the road here as 7.5-point favorites on November 14th. 

I also like the fact that the Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston to add to their motivation.  They come in on two days’ rest as well so they are fresh and ready to go.  Plus, the Mavericks are fully healthy right now and will be primed for a big effort. 

The Knicks are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Five of those six losses came by 12 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out on the regular.  And there’s been serious talks about firing their head coach David Fizdale in the media.  It’s just more of the same in New York this season. 

Dallas is 21-9 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Knicks are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 home games.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* Buffalo/Kent State MAC No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  They are only 3-6, but they have been much more competitive this year than last year.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  And while they are 2-3 in conference play, they are actually outscoring opponents by 9.8 points per game in MAC action. 

I think the Golden Flashes will give a big effort here at home Thursday night in this standalone MAC game.  This is their final stand if they want to stay alive for a bowl game since they have six losses on the season.  They played both Ohio (38-45) and Toledo (33-35) tough on the road, and Miami Ohio (16-23) at home.  Those are three of the best teams in the MAC.  If they can hang with them, they can certainly hang with Buffalo tonight. 

The Bulls come in overvalued on a three-game winning streak while also covering four in a row.  Their wins over bottom feeders Akron and Eastern Michigan weren’t impressive at all.  And their win over Central Michigan was very fluky because the Chippewas gave the game away with five turnovers.   

Kent State isn’t a team that beats itself with turnovers as the Golden Flashes haven’t committed more than two in any game this season, and they’ve only committed nine in nine games on the season.  Buffalo has been relying on turnovers during its 4-0 ATS streak, forcing a total of 12 turnovers in its last four games overall.  I don’t trust teams that rely on forcing turnovers to win games. 

Kent State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - off a road cover where they lost as an underdogs, with 6-plus more total starters returning than their opponent are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Kent State Thursday. 

15* Purdue/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -1 

The Marquette Golden Eagles return three starters from a team that went 24-10 last season.  That includes National Playoer of the Year candidate Marcus Howard, who averaged 25.0 points per game last year.  They also return Sacar Animalities (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) and Theo John (5.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and a couple key reserves. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a flying start this season with an 88-53 home win over Loyola-MD as an 18.5-point favorites.  Howard had 38 points, Anim had 11 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists,  and John had 7 points and 8 rebounds.  Utah State transfer Koby McEwen added 11 points and 7 boards.  Now they’ve had eight days to get ready for Purdue after playing that game on November 5th. 

Purdue loses a ton of talent from a team that made the Elite 8 last year and took eventual national champion Virginia to the wire.  Carsen Edwards (24.3 PPG, 135 3-pointers) is gone after single-handedly carrying the Boilermakers on their NCAA Tournament run.  Also gone is second-leading scorer Ryan Cline (12.0 PPG, 111 3-pointers).  Replacing those two is impossible. 

Purdue is off to a shaky start failing to cover as a 23-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites against Texas, 66-70.  The Boilermakers shot just 41% from the field against the Longhorns and allowed 53.3% shooting to a team that is notoriously a poor shooting team year in and year out. 

Purdue is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -2 

The Toledo Rockets sit at 6-3 and are in control of their own destiny in winning the MAC West.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Western Michigan after beating the Broncos at home.  The position they are in assures they will show up week in and week out to try and win the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets host a poor Northern Illinois team that is just 3-6 this season and clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Huskies are coming off an ugly 10-48 road loss to Central Michigan in which they gave up 615 total yards and committed four turnovers.  I don’t understand why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers.  Their name carries some weight, but this has been a rebuilding project all year after losing their head coach in the offseason. 

Toledo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.  Their offense has lit up the scoreboard with 35.2 points and 489.6 yards per game at home this year.  Northern Illinois is 1-5 on the road, getting outscored by 16.4 points per game.  Their offense has only managed 19.3 points per game on the highway this season, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with Toledo on the scoreboard in this one. 

The Rockets also have the matchup advantage.  They rush for 250 yards per game and 5.4 per carry on the season.  Well, Northern Illinois gives up 175 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  They give up 0.8 yards per carry more than their opponents rush for on average.  The Rockets should be able to run the football at will on them. 

Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS off a game where it forced zero turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS int heir last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet Toledo Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are the best team in the NBA from what I’ve seen thus far when Kawhi Leonard is on the floor.  They are 7-1 in games that he has played, and he’s expected to play tonight against the Houston Rockets despite this being a back-to-back situation with a game against the Pelicans tomorrow. 

Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season to pick up right where he left off.  Both Lou Williams (22.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Matrezl Harrell (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) have taken their games to the next level.  And guys like Ivaca Zubac, JayMychal Green and Patrick Beverley are all playing well. 

The Houston Rockets have some injury issues right now that will slow them down in the immediate future.  Eric Gordon won’t be back until late December after having knee surgery.  They were already without Gerald Green and Nene, and now Danuel House Jr. is out tonight with a back injury.  It’s a team that already lacks depth due to the massive contracts on the roster, and now they won’t have the depth to match the Clippers tonight. 

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1 

Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers decide to rest a star player or two tonight after a grueling 98-97 home win over Cleveland as 11-point favorites last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. 

The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  The Magic are also highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping five of their last six games overall.  They are a respectable 3-3 at home this season compared to 0-4 on the road. 

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last season as the home team went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The Magic won both home meetings with the 76ers 119-98 as 2-point favorites and 111-106 as 6-point dogs.  The home team is also 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. 

Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  The 76ers are 11-25 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 29-50 ATS in its last 79 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.   

Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - playing its 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

20* LSU/VCU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on VCU -2.5 

The VCU Rams want some revenge on LSU head coach Will Wade, who succeeded former head coach Shaka Smart in Richmond.  As part of an agreement to allow the third-year LSU coach to escape his contract with VCU to take his current job, these two programs agreed to play a home-and-home in 2019 and 2020. 

“I do think most of the fans were not real please with me,” Wade told the Advocate of his departure from the Rams in 2017. “They’re not real happy about the move, and I’m sure they’ll let their feelings be known when we show up there.” 

Current VCU head coach Mike Rhoades led the Rams to a 25-8 record last season and first-place finish in the Atlantic 10 with a 16-2 record.  Now Rhoads has almost everyone back with four double-digit scorers returning in Marcus Evans (13.6 PPG), De’Riante Jenkins (11.3 PPG), Issac Vann (10.8 PPG) and Marcus Santos-Silva (10.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Rams ranked top 10 in the nation in defense last season. 

LSU only returns two starters in Skylar Mays (13.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and Marion Taylor (6.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They lose their top two scorers in Tremont Waters (15.3 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Naz Reid (13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) to the NBA.  They also lose key big man Kavell Bigby-Williams (7.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They got off to a shaky start with an 88-79 home win over Bowling Green as a 13-point favorite.  They committed 16 turnovers and will struggle to take care of the ball against this lockdown VCU defense. 

VCU is 12-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 9-0 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet VCU Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +10 

The Philadelphia 76ers are without Al Horford and could be without Ben Simmons due to a shoulder injury yet again tonight.  It’s no wonder they have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming by 8 over the Hornets at home as 14-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers tonight. 

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are 4-5 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the first year under John Beilein.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins in blowout fashion over the Wizards by 13 and the Knicks by 21.   

Veterans Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both healthy and playing great basketball, while Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are all improved after playing together last year.  And rookie Darius Garland is getting acclimated to playing in the NBA while playing alongside Sexton in the backcourt. 

The Cavaliers are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings at Philadelphia.  They were underdogs in all four and won outright as 13-point dogs and outright as 2-point dogs.  They also covered as 15-point dogs in a 7-point loss and as 3.5-point dogs in a 2-point loss.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

15* Creighton/Michigan FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Creighton +5.5 

The Creighton Bluejays are going to challenge for a Big East title this year.  They returned four starters in Davion Mintz (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), Ty-Shon Alexander (15.7 PPG, 97 3-pointers), Marcus Zegarowski (10.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) and Mictch Ballock (11.1 PPG, 95 3-pointers).  They are one of the most veteran teams in the conference. 

The Michigan Wolverines are in a bit of a rebuild now that John Beilein moved on to coach in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Former Wolverine Juwan Howard got the job and will have his hands full matching Beilein’s success early in his career. 

Howard only inherits two returning starters in Xavier Simpson (7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and Jon Teske (9.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG).  The Wolverines must replace their top three scorers from last year in Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Jordan Poole (12.8 PPG) and Charles Matthews (12.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG). 

Michigan got off to a rough start in their opener, only beating Appalachian State 79-71 as 17-point favorites.  Creighton made easy work of Kennesaw State 81-55 and covered as 25.5-point favorites.  Look for the Bluejays to give the Wolverines a run for their money tonight and likely win this game outright. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Creighton is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Take Creighton Tuesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan/Akron UNDER 46.5 

There has been snow and rain in Akron all day Tuesday.  There is a chance of precipitation all day today.  The temperature will be around 23 degrees by game time and it will be windy.  These are perfect conditions for a bet on the UNDER tonight. 

Akron is challenging UMass for the worst team in football.  The Zips are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS.  Their biggest problem has been their putrid offense, which averages just 10.2 points and 255.6 yards per game on the season.  The Zips have scored a total of 9 points in their last four games, an average of just 2.3 points per game. 

It’s not like Eastern Michigan has been lighting up the scoreboard since getting into MAC play, either.  The Eagles are scoring just 24.2 points per game in their five MAC games this season.  And the Zips have at least been respectable defensively this season in giving up 390 yards per game and 5.4 per play. 

These teams met last year with Eastern Michigan winning 27-7 for 34 combined points.  I think we see a similar output from both teams tonight as this game stays well UNDER the total. 

Akron is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER vs. teams who allow 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Eagles last four games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Zips last seven Tuesday games.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Zips last 61 conference games.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Zips last 52 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Seahawks/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -6 

The San Francisco 49ers are 8-0 and nothing has been fluky at all about their start.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 7th in total offense at 390.2 yards per game and 1st in total defense at 241.0 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 149.2 yards per game on the season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  Only two of their eight wins have come by less than 9 points. 

Now the 49ers come in on extra rest after beating the Cardinals last Thursday.  That extra rest should allow for some key pieces to come back as T Joe Staley and FB Kyle Juszczyk are both expected to be ready to go by Monday.  Fellow T Mike McGlinchey has also been upgraded to questionable, and getting at least two of these three guys back will make the offense even more potent.  They do lose LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury, but they will get back more than they lose this week. 

The Seahawks are 7-2, but their record is certainly fluky, and they are starting to run out of gas since they haven’t had a bye week yet.  The Seahawks are only outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game and outgaining them by 14.2 yards per game this season.  Seattle has gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, getting extremely fortunate in close games, including narrow wins over bad teams in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa.   

Seattle has a leaky stop unit that ranks 25th in total defense at 380.2 yards per game and 22nd in scoring defense at 25.6 points per game.  The 49ers rank 2nd in yards per play (4.5) allowed defensively, while the Seahawks are 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  And that right there is going to be the difference in this game. 

The Seahawks have been relying on Russell Wilson to move the football through the air.  Well, he hasn’t seen a pass rush like the one the 49ers will throw at him.  And he certainly hasn’t faced a passing defense as good as the 49ers.  San Francisco ranks 1st in the NFL with just 138.1 passing yards per game allowed. 

The 49ers have the 2nd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL at 171.1 yards per game.  With FB Juszczyk back paving the way for their RB’s, this rushing attack will get even more potent moving forward.  The Seahawks rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7) allowed this season, so the 49ers should be able to move the football at will.  That will open things up for the play-action passing game with Jimmy G, who is coming off his best game of the season with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. 

The 49ers are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 Monday Night Football games.  We last saw them blitz the Browns 31-3 on Monday Night Football earlier this season.  San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are better than their 2-7 record would indicate as they have suffered several close losses this season. 

Indeed, six of the Pelicans’ seven losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They got on track last time out with a 115-110 road win over Charlotte.  Look for them to give Houston a run for its money tonight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The chemistry for the Rockets hasn’t been great this season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  They have actually played better without him.  Their defense has taken a huge step back as they are giving up 118.7 points per game this season.  They are only shooting 44% as a team as well. 

The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in hitter last 10 games overall.  Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday. 

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +12.5 

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the most underrated teams in the country last season.  They went 24-10 (12-6 MVC) and tied for first in the conference.  They were covering machines and I expect them to continue beating the closing number at a great rate this season. 

The Bulldogs returned three starters and three key reserves this season and are among the favorites to win the MVC again.  They’re off to a good start with an 86-55 win over Kennesaw State as 15-point favorites.  They shot 57.6% as a team and had five players score in double figures, including a couple newcomers in Jonah Jackson (15 points) and Roman Penn (10 points). 

Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin to UCLA and will take a step back this year.  They opened the season with a 56-64 loss at in-state rival Ohio State as 5.5-point dogs.  They will have a hard time getting up for Drake after facing a ranked Ohio State team. 

Drake is 24-8 ATS in all games over the last two seasons, and 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take Drake Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -3.5 

The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now after a 3-6 start against a brutal schedule.  They have handled the teams they should handle in Cleveland, New York and Memphis by winning those three games by a combined 53 points. 

However, the Magic have lost to almost all the tough teams they have faced.  They lost on the road to Dallas, OKC, Toronto and Atlanta, and also lost at home to Milwaukee and Denver. 

Indiana is classified as a team they should beat in my book.  That’s especially the case with the injuries the Pacers are dealing with right now.  They are without three starters in Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. 

The Magic went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Pacers last season.  The Pacers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Indiana is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -3.5 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  The Rams are coming off a bye following their win over the Bengals in London.  They’ll be rested and ready to go today.  Road favorites off a bye are 75-38 (66%) in the last 113 tries.  The Rams are 8-1 SU and scoring 36 points per game with extra time to prepare under Sean McVey. 

The Rams have been dominant defensively since trading for Jalen Ramsey to give their secondary a huge boost.  They gave up just 10 points at Atlanta and just 10 points to the Bengals while outscoring those two teams by a combined 41 points, or an average of 20.5 points per game. 

The Steelers are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their three-game winning streak.  It has come against the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts.  The Chargers gave the game away with three turnovers, the Dolphins gave the game away with four turnovers, and the Colts gave the game away with three turnovers.  Pittsburgh has been relying on turnovers all season. 

Well, the Rams have only committed one turnover in their last three games combined, so they aren’t a team that just gives the ball away.  The Steelers were lucky to have Jacoby Brissett get injured for the Colts early last week so they had to face Brian Hoyer instead.  And they still nearly lost as Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning 41-yard field goal. 

I just don’t see how the Steelers can keep up on the scoreboard in this game because they don’t have the firepower to match Jared Goff and company.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  Mason Rudolph clearly just isn’t very good, and their predictable offense is built around a short passing game with the majority of his pass attempts going to running backs.  The Steelers are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the league.  They are also 26th in rushing offense at 88.4 yards per game.  Pittsburgh is unlikely to get James Conner back from a shoulder injury as he’s listed as doubtful. 

Sean McVay is a perfect 7-0 ATS against poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as the coach of Los Angeles.  The Rams are winning by nearly 20 points per game in this spot.  This trend makes sense to me because teams that can’t run the ball consistently aren’t able to control the time of possession and keep the Rams’ high-powered offense off the field.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and have been covering machines on the highway since McVey took over.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -5.5 

The Florida Gators are the No. 6 team in the country for good reason.  They returned three starters and added in Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is a clear NBA talent. 

I faded Florida State against Pitt in their opener and won and I’m fading the Seminoles again today.  They lost six of their top eight scorers from last year and simply aren’t nearly as good as they are getting credit for after going 29-8 last season. 

Florida will come into this game highly motivated for a win after losing five straight to Florida State, including blowout losses each of the last two seasons.  This is their year to get payback because they finally have the better team, and it’s not even close.  Take Florida Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks -3 

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an upset loss to the New York Knicks last night.  They will be in a bad mood and will come out highly motivated tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think we are getting them at a discount after the upset loss. 

The Grizzlies are just 2-6 this season and have been blown out consistently with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  The Grizzlies will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an 86-116 loss in Orlando last night.  They’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well, while the Mavericks will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. 

Plays on road favorites (Dallas) - a good team with a +3 to +7 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -7 PPG differential or worse, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.   

The Mavericks are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on zero days’ rest.  Take the Mavericks Saturday. 

15* Missouri/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia -16 

It’s like everyone wrote off Georgia after a fluky loss to South Carolina in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 171 yards and should have won.  This is still one of the best teams in the country.  And after opening ranked 6th in the initial playoff rankings, they can certainly use some style points here down the stretch.  That’s part of the reason why I’m laying the 16 points here with the Bulldogs. 

Georgia was dominant last week in its 24-17 win over Florida in which the Bulldogs outgained the Gators by 120 yards.  Jake Fromm proved there was nothing wrong with him, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against a very good Florida defense.  The Bulldogs held the Gators to a season-low 278 yards, including 21 rushing on 19 carries. 

Georgia has outgained all eight of its opponents this season and six of those by 120 yards or more.  The Bulldogs are outgaining opponents by over 194 yards per game and outscoring them by 23.1 points per game on the season.  They have an elite defense that allows 11.4 points and 268.1 yards per game. 

Missouri is 5-0 at home this season against a soft schedule, but the Tigers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road. They are scoring just 17.3 points per game on the highway and getting outscored by 11.7 points per game.  This despite the fact that they have had a soft road schedule and have been double-digit favorites in all three road games.  They lost 31-37 as 15.5-point favorites at Wyoming, lost 14-21 as 21.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt, and lost 7-29 as 10-point favorites at Kentucky.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 82 points in their three road games. 

Now, the Tigers face their stiffest test of the season on the road at Georgia this week.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 16-point dogs given what we’ve seen from them on the highway thus far this season.  Part of the reason the line is low is because Missouri is off a bye, but QB Kelly Bryant came up limp with a hamstring injury last game and won’t be fully healthy even with the bye.  And Georgia had a bye before Florida, so the Bulldogs will still be fresh this week.  And like I said the Bulldogs need style points so they will be plenty motivated this week. 

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  Georgia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  I like the fact that this is a night game and the fans will be rowdy in a great atmosphere in Athens.  Bet Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They caught fire around Valentine’s Day and led Bradley in the MVC title game 35-17 before falling apart. 

Now, Northern Iowa returns six of its top seven scorers and is a clear contender in the MVC this season.  They have six seniors and three juniors and are actually led by sophomore A.J. Green (15.0 PPG, 71 3-pointers), who is their highest rated recruit in program history.  They took a trip to Italy in August to bond even further. 

The Panthers are coming off a very good 58-53 win over Old Dominion as 4.5-point favorites despite shooting just 34.5% from the field.  They held the Monarchs to just 35.6% shooting, and their suffocating defense has been a staple in the Ben Jacobson era.  I like the fact that they have a game under their belts already while this will be the first game of the season for Northern Illinois. 

Northern Illinois loses two of its top three scorers in Levi Bradley (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Dante Thorp (13.8 PPG).  That’s a lot of production needing replace from a middling Huskies team that went just 17-17 last year and 8-10 in MAC play.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday. 

15* LSU/Alabama CBS No-Brainer on LSU +6.5 

The LSU Tigers finally have the team to beat Alabama.  The Les Miles era is over, and there’s a new sheriff in town in Ed Orgeron.  Orgeron has proven himself quickly at LSU by going 7-1 SU against Top 10 teams in his last eight matchups against them.  I really believe LSU is neck and neck with Ohio State as the best team in the country this year. 

The reason LSU has a chance to beat Alabama finally is because they have their best offense in program history.  The Tigers have gone to a more up-tempo passing game to take advantage of all their athletes.  The result has been an average of 46.7 points and 535.9 yards per game this season.  Joe Burrow is a Heisman favorite while completing 78.8% of his passes for 2,805 yards with a 30-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.8 yards per attempt. 

LSU has proven its meddle against a much tougher schedule than that of Alabama.  LSU has played the 34th-toughest schedule, while Alabama has played the 59th.  LSU has already played and disposed of two top 10 teams in Florida and Auburn.  And I think the fact that they only beat Auburn 23-20 last time out actually has them undervalued here.   

That was a hugely misleading final as LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards and racked up 508 total yards on what is a very good Auburn defense.  They also had 42 points and 511 total yards against Florida’s vaunted defense.  You would be hard-pressed finding two better defenses in the country.  Now the Tigers get to go up against what is a weak Alabama defense by their standards.  Alabama has allowed 23 points to South Carolina, 31 points to Ole Miss and 28 points to Texas A&M this season.  None of those offenses compare to the one LSU is going to throw at them. 

No question Alabama also has an explosive offense.  But QB Tua Tagovailoa won’t be 100% after having knee surgery at the end of October.  And there’s an outside shot he doesn’t play.  Either way, this will be the best defense that Alabama has faced this season, and it’s not even close.  LSU gives up just 20.0 points and 315.4 yards per game on the year.  The Tigers still have the same type of dominant defense they always have, except this year they have an offense that can compliment it. 

LSU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Orgeron is 11-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of LSU.  Bet LSU Saturday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State -1.5 

I love the spot for for the Arizona State Sun Devils here.  They opened 5-1, but back-to-back road losses to Utah and UCLA have dropped them to 5-3 on the season.  Now they have had two weeks to stew over those losses and get ready for USC coming to town this week.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and highly motivated for a victory in Tempe Saturday. 

The Clay Helton rumors are swirling at USC after an ugly 24-56 home loss to USC last week.  He is squarely on the hot seat and may be losing his team.  Of course, it doesn’t help that the Trojans are more banged up than most teams in the country.  They are missing key players all over the field on both sides of the ball, which hasn’t helped their cause. 

USC is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season.  They lost to BYU, Washington and Notre Dame and were extremely fortunate to beat Colorado 35-31 as 10.5-point favorites, needing to come back from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to escape with victory from the jaws of defeat.  They’ll fall to 1-4 on the highway with yet another loss Saturday. 

Arizona State has one of the best defenses in the country, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  The Sun Devils allow 21.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  USC allows 28.3 points, 426.7 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.   

I think the bye week is huge for freshman QB Jayden Daniels and his growth.  Daniels has an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season, is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and has added 273 rushing yards and three scores. Daniels should be able to find plenty of success against this soft, banged-up USC defense that just gave up 56 points to Oregon last week. 

Arizona State is a tremendous 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest.  The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  Clay Helton is 0-8 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are losing by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  The Trojans are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +14.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini sit at 5-4 and on the verge of making their first bowl game since 2014.  It is Year 3 in the Lovie Smith era, and he is finally putting his stamp on this program.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue the momentum they have built over the last 3-4 weeks and to give Michigan State a run for its money Saturday. 

Illinois is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The run actually started when they trailed 28-0 against Michigan and fought back to make it 28-25 before eventually coming up short.  The Fighting Illini pulled the upset of the season the next week in a 24-23 win as 29-point home dogs to Wisconsin.  And they’ve gone on to prove that loss wasn’t a fluke and to avoid a letdown by beating Purdue 24-6 on the road and Rutgers 38-10 at home. 

Michigan State went just 3-9 a few years ago, and it is having another disastrous season in 2019.  The Spartans sit at 4-4 and are coming off three straight ugly losses to Ohio State (10-34), Wisconsin (0-38) and Penn State (7-28).  Those were three games they had circled coming into they season, and they lost all three in blowout fashion.  I can’t see them getting back up off the mat in time to want to put Illinois away by more than two touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this inflated 14.5-point spread.  And it’s a sandwich spot with rival Michigan on deck next week. 

As has been the case throughout the years, it’s just tough to lay big numbers with Michigan State because of their offense.  The Spartans only average 21.7 points per game this season and have been a dumpster fire on that side of the ball once again.  And I know Michigan State is coming off a bye, but how excited could they have been on that bye week off three straight losses and their season ruined?  I think Illinois is ‘all in’ this week knowing it has a bye on deck next week. 

Mark Dantonio is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of Michigan State.  Dantonio is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 21 or more points as the coach of the Spartans.  Illinois is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a game where it committed zero turnovers.  The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays against home favorites (Michigan State) - after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games against an opponent that scored 37 or more points last game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Illinois Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Stanford -3 

The Stanford Cardinal have done a great job of keeping it together following a tough start to the season.  They have had to start three different quarterbacks due to injuries, and they’ve had some injuries along the offensive line that have forced several freshmen into action.  The bye week came at a great time here as the Cardinal have had two weeks to get healthy and get ready for Colorado this weekend. 

Now, the Cardinal are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  They sit at 4-4 and have their sights set on a bowl game when it didn’t seem possible when they were sitting at 1-3.  They have gone 3-1 since and got starting QB K.J. Costello back from injury last time out in a 41-31 home win over Arizona.  He makes all the difference for this team as he decided to forego the NFL and come back for his senior season.  Their only loss during this stretch came when they had to start their 3rd-string QB against UCLA. 

Colorado basically has nothing to play for at this point sitting at 3-6 on the season.  The Buffaloes won’t be winning their final three games to make a bowl because they still have to play Washington and Utah.  They have lost five straight coming in going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  They are just 1-5 in Pac-12 play and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game.  I think we are getting Stanford very cheap here as only 3-point favorites. 

The Cardinal are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Buffaloes are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine November games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Buffaloes are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 November road games.  The Buffaloes are 0-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College -2 

Florida State had their 36-year bowl streak snapped last season with a 5-7 record.  It was the longest streak in college football.  They have no motivation to keep that streak alive now that it was snapped last season.  I have no doubt players are just ready to be done with this disastrous season. 

Willie Taggart was fired over the weekend after an ugly 10-27 home loss to rival Miami.  The Seminoles managed just 203 total yards against Miami and were outgained by 150 yards.  Odell Haggins takes over as interim coach.  And while he’s trying to say all the right things, I just have no doubt players won’t respond.  I expect them to lose this game at Boston College and the regular season finale at Florida to miss out on a bowl again. 

Boston College is really showing some life here down the stretch.  Few teams have been more undervalued than the Eagles.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only losses coming at Clemson, to Wake Forest by 3 and at Louisville by 2. 

They beat NC State by 21 and won at Syracuse by 31 in two of their last three games that surrounded the blowout loss at Clemson.  Their offense racked up 532 yards on NC State including 429 rushing.  They added 691 yards against Syracuse and rushed for 496.  Look for their offensive line to dominate Florida State’s defensive line, and winning the battle in the trenches is going to be their key to getting a win here. 

The Eagles know this is their best chance to clinch a bowl game as they sit at 5-4 on the year.  They still have road games coming up against Notre Dame and Pitt to close the season, ending a stretch of four of their final five games away from home.  That makes this Senior Day for them and their final home game, only adding too their motivation. 

The Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  Boston College is 10-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing 58% completions or worse over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 1-9 ATS after playing a hoe game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 0-10 ATS off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take Boston College Saturday. 

20* Penn State/Minnesota ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will be playing the disrespected card this week leading up to this huge showdown with Penn State.  I guarantee you PJ Fleck has told his players that nobody believes in them after they came out ranked No. 17 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  I think they will be ‘all in’ and that ranking actually takes the pressure off of them from being unbeaten and puts more of the pressure on Penn State in this game as the road favorite. 

Fleck is quickly proving himself as one of the best head coaches in the country.  He went 5-7 in his first season, took them to a bowl and a 7-6 record in his second season, and now has them 8-0 and in the playoff conversation in his third year.  I realize it has come against a soft schedule, but you can only play the teams that are in front of you, and what impresses me is how much this veteran team that returned 16 starters is improving as the season goes on. 

Indeed, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They went on the road and beat Purdue as underdogs 38-31.  They blew out Illinois 40-17 as 14-point home favorites, the same Illinois team that is on a three-game winning streak with a win over Wisconsin.  They crushed Nebraska 34-7 as 7.5-point favorites.  They handled their business at Rutgers 42-7 as 28-point favorites.  And they crushed Maryland 52-10 as 14-point favorites.  It’s not like they are squeaking by teams, outscoring their five Big Ten opponents by 26.8 points per game and outgunning them by 201.2 yards per game. 

Penn State is the team that is the fraud coming in.  The Nittany Lions are 8-0, but they have been outgained in four of their eight games.  They were outgained by Buffalo, Pitt, Iowa and Michigan and fortunate to win all four of those games.  To compare, Minnesota has only been outgained once in its eight games this season.  No team that gets outgained in half of their games should be 8-0. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after scoring 42 points in two straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Penn State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Nittany Lions are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  Penn State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off an ATS win.  The Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday. 

15* Washington/Oregon State Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10.5 

After losing three of their last four games to Stanford, Oregon and Utah, the Washington Huskies have nothing to play for now.  They had dreams of winning the Pac-12, but those dreams are crushed now.  They best they can do is go to a bowl game at 5-4.  I think they suffer a hangover from their tough 28-33 home loss to Utah last week. 

Oregon State has life and momentum right now.  The Beavers have won three of their last four to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now have a legitimate shot of going to a bowl game.  It’s a team that has been grossly underrated all season, especially since they got into Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Most impressively, Oregon State’s last three wins have all come on the road in upset fashion.  The Bears upset UCLA 48-31 as 4.5-point road dogs.  After losing at home to Utah, they went back on the road and topped California 21-17 as 10.5-point dogs.  And last week they went on the road and topped Arizona 56-38 as 4.5-point dogs.  They have covered the spread by a combined 58.5 points in those three games to show just how undervalued they’ve been. 

Now, the Beavers are catching double-digits at home against a deflated Washington team.  The home crowd will be a huge advantage for them here on this standalone Friday night game as fans are finally excited about this program with a chance to get to a bowl.  Head coach Jonathan Smith is doing a fantastic job.  He is a former player here, so fans are even more excited for him and this team. 

Oregon State boasts the best offense it has had in years.  The Beavers are scoring 33.6 points per game and averaging 431.1 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 177 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry, as well as 254 passing yards per game.  And Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it once was, giving up 25.3 points and 392.2 yards per game in conference play.  It shouldn’t be too surprising considering the Huskies only returned two starts on D this year. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points (Oregon State) - a good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPPG) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Beavers are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games after covering the spread in four of their last five games coming in.  The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Take Oregon State Friday.