Winning Sports Picks

15* Mavericks/Bulls Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 203.5

Rarely ever will you see a total set of greater than 200 points in a game involving the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the league's best defensive teams since Tom Thibodeau arrived.  In fact, only twice all season have they had a total set of greater than 196.5 points.  Those came against the Nuggets and Celtics, who are two teams that play little defense and at a fast pace.

Both Chicago and Dallas rank in the middle of the league in pace this season.  They both rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls are down lower than their normally would be at 9th, giving up 101.3 points per 100 possessions, but still solid nonetheless.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring the recent meetings between the Mavericks and Bulls have been.  They have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings with a 6-1 record for the UNDERS.

They have combined for 191, 188, 198, 179, 176, 159 and 171 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this game tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHICAGO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-26 (69%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in December home games over the last three seasons. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bills last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5

 This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, in its last game against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg)) and Patterson (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.4 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thuran (10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and White (9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

Kansas State (3-3) is clearly down this season.  Two of its three wins have come at home against Southern Utah (96-68) and Missouri-KC (83-73) with the latter result providing a troubling sign of things to come for the Wildcats.

They have gone 1-3 in their last four games since, which included a 60-69 loss at Long Beach State as a 2.5-point favorite.  They did have a good showing in a 68-72 loss to Arizona on a neutral court, but their 47-70 loss to Pittsburgh last time out in that same tournament shows that this team has a long way to go.

The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska-Omaha is 6-2 ATS in its lst eight road games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Summit league foes.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +14

The Los Angeles Clippers were 5-4 heading into their seven-game road trip and not playing very well at all.  Well, they won six of their seven games during that trip with their only loss coming to Western Conference-leading Memphis.

"We made it a business trip," point guard Chris Paul said. "We got out of our own way. We played a little bit more free and really moved the ball. Most of all, our defense was pretty good."

Well, now I expect them to have a letdown after such a successful trip when they return home Monday.  That first game home after a long road trip is always tough on players.  They have so many obligations when they get back home that they can easily forget about basketball.  I don't believe the Clippers will play with the kind of focus it takes to put away Minnesota by more than 14 points Monday.

The Clippers have covered five of their last seven games, while the Timberwolves have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games with one push.  The betting public has taken notice, which is the reason why this line is so inflated.  There's clearly value in backing the Timberwolves as such a massive dog here.

I know Minnesota is dealing with some injuries right now, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and other players have stepped up.  Mo Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and guys like Thaddeus Young (13.9 ppg), Andrew Wiggins (11.6 ppg), Corey Brewer (10.9 ppg) and Shabazz Muhammad (9.5 ppg) have stepped up their games.

Minnesota will be motivated to put an end to a 9-game losing streak to Los Angeles in this series.  While that is concerning, a closer look shows that it has rarely been blown out by the Clippers.  Indeed, The Clippers have only beaten the Timberwolves by more than 13 points once in those nine meetings.  The last four have all been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 4 or fewer.

Plays on road teams (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Dolphins/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami -6.5

The New York Jets appear to have quit. Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach who will be fired at season’s end. Their 38-3 loss to the Bills on Monday showed that they don’t have any fight left in them after a disastrous 2-9 start to the season. They keep going back and forth between quarterbacks and will give Geno Smith the start this week in place of Michael Vick. But, it really hasn’t mattered who is under center.

The Jets have rarely been competitive this season. They are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the year. Their offense is a mess, scoring just 16.1 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense. I just don’t believe they have the firepower on this side of the ball to keep up with the Dolphins in this one.

Miami is even better than its 6-5 record would indicate this season. It has been playing some great football for a couple months now, going 5-3 in its last eight games overall with a chance to win in all five games. It suffered last-second losses to Green Bay (24-27) and Detroit (16-20), while also going toe-to-toe with Denver (36-39) on the road last week. I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they are elite.

The numbers really tell the story for the Dolphins. They are putting up 25.9 points per game this season while allowing just 19.9 points per game. They have been carried by a defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in allowing just 315.9 yards per game. That’s another reason why I don’t expect the Jets to be able to do anything offensively because they will be up against a similar defense like they were last week in Buffalo, which ranks 4th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between New York and Miami over the past two years. In fact, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings. Miami has won in blowout fashion in its last two trips to the Meadowlands. It won 23-3 on the road last year as a 1-point favorite, and 30-9 on the road in 2012 as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to New York.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on Monday night are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 vs. excellent kickoff return teams that average more than 24 yards per return.

New York is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 per carry. It is expected to be without big defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson for this game, which will further hamper its run defense. The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents. The Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in their second season under form NBA coach Eddie Jordan.  This team should be vastly improved this year off a 12-21 campaign in Jordan's first season last year.

Jordan has three starters back from that team, including his top two scorers in G Myles Mack (14.9 ppg, 4.3 apg last year) and F/C Kadeem Jack (14.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  In these two seniors, Jordan has some fine leadership and go-to scorers.  Also back is sophomore F Junio Etou (5.34 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Rutgers has gotten off to a shaky 3-3 start this season, but it has played a tough schedule.  It has a win over Vanderbilt by a final of 68-65 on November 28th as a 5.5-point underdog.  It followed that up with a 26-45 loss to Virginia last time out as an 18.5-point dog.  The Cavaliers are currently ranked 8th in the country, so I'm not going to worry about that loss too much.

My choice to go with Rutgers tonight is more of a fade of Clemson than anything.  I simply believe that this team is not that good and should not be laying 9.5 points to the Scarlet Knights tonight.  Asking the Tigers to win by double-digits to cover is asking too much.

Clemson is off to a 4-2 start this season, but against a much softer schedule than Rutgers.  Its last three wins have all come by single-digits over Nevada (59-50), LSU (64-61) and High Point (62-59) with that 3-point win over High Point coming at home, and the other two on neutral courts.

While those three narrow wins are all concerning for the Tigers, the biggest evidence that they aren't a very good team has come from their two losses.  They lost at home to Winthrop (74-77) and on a neutral court to Gardner-Webb (70-72).

The Tigers did return four players this season that played significant minutes for them last year, but none of those four averaged double-digits scoring last season.  They lost their best player in K.J. McDaniels (17.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg last year) to the NBA, and they simply haven't been nearly as good without him.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 121-72 (62.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4-plus points per game. 

Rutgers is 48-28 ATS in its last 76 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Tigers are 33-60 ATS in their last 93 games coming off two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Brad Brownell is 4-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Brownell is 2-11 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Take Rutgers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 195.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings will take part in a defensive battle tonight in this Western Conference showdown.  The books opened this number around 191.5 and it has been bet all the way up to 195.5 in some place, creating some nice value for us here.

Neither of these teams prefer to push the tempo.  In fact, Memphis ranks just 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.4 possessions per game.  Sacramento is 14th in pace at 95.6 possessions per contest.

The reason Memphis is 14-2 right now and atop the Western Conference standings is its play defensively.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions.  Opponents are making just 43.2% of their shots for 92.8 points per game against the Grizzlies.

Memphis has been worse offensively and better defensively on the road this year.  It is scoring just 94.5 points per game away from home, but giving up just 89.9 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 184.4 points per game in road games.

Sacramento has been a much better defensive team at home.  It is giving up an average of 97.2 points per game at home this year and 44.1% shooting.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Sacramento's six home games this year, and 5-3 in Memphis' eight road games.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as the Grizzlies and Kings have combined for 188 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.  I know they combined for 221 in their first meeting of 2014, but that was simply an aberration.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies las five road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well.  Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.

Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with.  THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.

Richmond is a team on the decline.  It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year.  They do return three starters from last year, though.

Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points.  The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog.  I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.

The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years. 

Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

25* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +7

The St. Louis Rams should not be favored by a touchdown against any team in the NFL. They are getting way too much respect for their recent wins over some of the best teams in the NFL, which were all really flukes when you take a closer look at it. Sure, they have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver in three of their last six games, but they’ve also been blown out by Kansas City (7-34) and Arizona (14-31).

You could make the argument that the Rams should have lost each of their last seven games. That’s because they have actually been outgained by 60 or more yards in all seven of those games. They have been outgained by a total of 780 yards in their last seven games, or by an average of 111.4 yards per game. That’s not a sign of a good team, and certainly not a team that should be favored by a touchdown against any other NFL squad.

The Oakland Raiders (1-10) have continued to fight despite their poor record, actually coming through with a profitable 6-5 ATS mark to this point. They finally got the payoff with a 24-20 home win over Kansas City last week in which they outgained the Chiefs by 38 yards in the win. While this could be a letdown spot, I don’t believe it will be. That’s because the Raiders have had ample time to rest and get over those emotions. They played the Chiefs last Thursday so they come into this game on three more days’ rest than St. Louis.

You could see a win coming for the Raiders when you follow how close they had been to getting one. While they have lost six of their last seven games, five of those losses came by 11 points or fewer. The only exception was a 17-41 loss to Denver in which they only trailed 13-10 late in the first half before getting blown out after intermission. They even went into Seattle and only lost by 6, and they also lost to San Diego twice by 7 and 3 points during this stretch.

Though the Raiders finally had something to show for their efforts, they'd made strides by being within a score in the fourth quarter in five of the first six games since Tony Sparano replaced the fired Dennis Allen on Sept. 29. Oakland didn't score more than 14 points in any of the first four under Allen but has averaged 17.9 and scored at least 24 three times for Sparano.

In my mind, these teams are very equal. The numbers show that as well as the Rams are getting outgained by 53.4 yards per game, while the Raiders are getting outgained by 77.3 yards per game. So, the Rams have a slight edge, and should be no more than 4-point favorites at home. They should be roughly a 1-point favorite on a neutral field. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown this week is simply asking too much.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off one or more straight overs, a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% of less. The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of the season vs. poor ball control teams that average 28 or less possession minutes per game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +10

The Washington Redskins (3-8) have not won any game that Robert Griffin III has started and completed this season. Well, the good news is that Colt McCoy is expected to replace Griffin III as the starter this week. He has played extremely well in limited action. In fact, the Redskins are 2-0 in games that McCoy has finished in place of Griffin III and Kirk Cousins.

McCoy replaced an injured Cousins midway through the Tennessee game and led the Redskins to a 19-17 victory. He went 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in the win. He played the full game against Dallas on Monday Night Football in their last win, a 20-17 (OT) thriller as a 9-point road underdog. McCoy completed a ridiculous 25-of-30 passes for 299 yards, while also rushing for 16 yards and a score to lead the Redskins to victory.  That makes him 36-of-42 passing in his last two games.

Certainly, Washington has little to play for at this point at 3-8, but McCoy could be the spark it needs to get back up off the mat this week. After all, the Redskins have clearly not quit as they only lost by three to Minnesota and by four to San Francisco in two of their last three losses. Griffin III has been the biggest culprit for the losses, but the numbers show that this is still a solid football team on both sides of the ball.

Indeed, the Redskins rank 9th in the league in yardage differential, actually outgaining teams by an average of 34.2 yards per game. A whopping 16 of the top 18 teams in yardage differential this season actually have winning records. The only exceptions are the Redskins and Saints (5th), who are both clearly much better than their records would indicate.

Washington ranks a respectable 11th in the league in total offense at 365.2 yards per game. It also ranks 10th in total defense, giving up just 331.0 yards per game. There is no way that with those numbers this team should be a 10-point underdog to the Colts this week. Six of the Redskins’ eight losses this season have come by 11 points or less. Asking Indianapolis to win by double-digits to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

The Colts rely heavily on the pass to move the football, and Washington is one of the best teams in the league at getting after the passer.  Andrew Luck was sacked five fumbles and had four fumbles against Washington last week.  The Redskins have an effective pass rush that ranks 14th in sacks (27.0) this season.  They have been very unfortunate to have only four picks on the season, and they rank 28th in turnover differential (-9), which is also unfortunate to this point.  They won't be turning it over with McCoy under center.

Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-31 (70.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Washington is 17-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game after eight-plus games since 1992. The Redskins are a perfect 13-0 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season since 1992. Washington is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Chargers +6.5

I believe the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) are overvalued coming into this one after their win over the Saints last week on Monday Night Football. That’s the same Saints team that is just 4-7 right now and has lost three straight at home coming in, and the Ravens were coming off their bye, so it was a good spot for them. It’s not the Saints team of year’s past that was a Super Bowl contender almost every year. Asking the Ravens to come back on a short week and beat the Chargers by a touchdown or more to cover this spread is asking too much.

San Diego (7-4) comes into this game undervalued because it has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and has shunned this team as a result, forcing oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be. Sure, the Chargers are coming off wins over the Rams and Raiders by a combined 10 points, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. The Rams have beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos lately, while the Raiders just knocked off the Chiefs last week.

The numbers indicate that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the league. Their offense is putting up a respectable 22.3 points per game, but the biggest reason for their success has been their defense. The Chargers are only giving up 19.6 points and 330.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. The Ravens are a pedestrian 15th in total defense, giving up 352.9 yards per game.

The Chargers obviously rely heavily on Philip Rivers and the passing game. They are completing 67.8 percent of thheir passes for 248 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt against teams that are giving up 64.0% completions, 231 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  They put up 410 yards on a very good St. Louis defense last week, including 282 passing.  Rivers went 29 of 35 passing for 291 yards.  Ryan Matthews returned from injury and rushed for 112 yards on just 12 carries.

That makes this a very good matchup for Rivers and company because the weakness of the Baltimore defense is against the pass. Indeed, the Ravens are giving up 65.7% completions, 265 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt this season. They rank 29th in the league against the pass.  They are also playing without their best cornerback in Jimmy Smith, who is on the IR with a foot injury.

Plays on road teams (SAN DIEGO) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +5

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) clearly have not played up to their potential this season. However, there’s no question that they are much better than their record would indicate. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a combined six points. They have simply been unfortunate in close games. The good news is that they still have plenty to play for since they remain tied for first place in the NFC South.

The numbers certainly show that the Saints are better than their record. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 56.5 yards per game. In fact, of the top 18 teams in the league in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and Redskins, who are two of the most underrated teams in the league at this point in the season. I still believe the Saints are one of the better teams in the league.  What has hurt them is ranking 28th in turnover differential (-9), which has been bad luck as much as anything.

With an offense like the one the Saints boast, they have a chance to beat anyone. They are putting up 26.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 433.6 yards per game. Drew Brees hasn’t missed a beat this season despite all his critics. He is completing a ridiculous 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,491 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. He just recently got back Pierre Thomas from injury, who is his favorite outlet out of the backfield.

Pittsburgh has been tearing it up offensively as well this season, but it has been vulnerable on defense. It is giving up 23.9 points per game overall and 26.8 points per game at home. It has allowed 20 or more points in six consecutive games. It has given up 27 points to Cleveland, 27 to Tampa Bay, 31 to Cleveland, 34 to Indianapolis, and 24 to Tennessee, just to name a few of its poor performances on that side of the ball this year. It has allowed at least 19 points in 10 of its 11 games, and the only exception was Jacksonville, which sports the league's worst offense. It will give up another big number to this explosive Saints’ offense Sunday.

This will be a step up in competition for the Steelers, who have played the Jets and Titans in their last two games.  They lost to the Jets 20-13 on the road before squeaking out a come-from-behind victory over Tennessee (27-24) in their last game.  Ben Roethlisberger thre three interceptions, took seven sacks and hit just two passing plays of at least 25 yards while splitting those two games.

New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. While the Saints are 1-4 on the road this season, three of those losses came by 3 points or less. If they lose this game, there’s a good chance it will be by 4 points or less. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four Sunday games following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3

The Buffalo Bills (6-5) are certainly playing for their city and trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt right now. The Buffalo area got as much as eight feet of snow in a short span last week, causing several snow-related deaths. The Bills brought some joy to the area with their dominant 38-3 win over the Jets last week. They thoroughly dominated that game, outgaining the Jets by 118 yards in the win. Now, they get back home in front of their fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere as the Browns come to town.

Kyle Orton has injected new life into the offense. He has gone 4-3 as a starter for this team with his only three losses coming against playoff contenders in New England, Kansas City and Miami. He is completing 65.4 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Orton has seven TDs and no INTs in his last four games.  Unlike past Buffalo quarterbacks, he is not allowing the Bills to beat themselves with costly turnovers on offense.

That’s very important because when you have a defense like Buffalo does, you do not want the offense to blow games by committing turnovers. The reason the Bills have staying power is because of their D. They are giving up just 18.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the league in total defense at 312.3 yards per game.

Cleveland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. It is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now, let alone a 7-4 mark. The numbers tell the story. The Browns rank just 16th in the NFL in yardage differential as they are actually getting outgained on the season. The reason they do not have staying power is their defense, which is ranks 20th in the NFL in giving up 367.1 yards per game.

I’ll gladly back the better defense any day.  Plus, you have to consider the injuries that the Browns are dealing with right now.  Starting safety Tashaun Gipson, who leads the NFL with six interceptions, went out with a knee injury against Atlanta last week and may not return this season.  DL Phillip Taylor, DE Armonty Bryant, and DE John Hughes are all out, while DL Ahtyba Rubin, LB Jamaal Sheard and LB Karlos Dansby are all questionable to play Sunday.

The Browns have put up the better numbers offensively this year, but they have also played the much easier schedule.  They are averaging 22.0 point and 367 yards per game against teams that allow 24.3 points and 371 yards per game, so they have simply benefited from playing against terrible opposing defenses. 

The Bills are averaging 21.6 points and 323 yards per game against teams that give up 21.9 points and 336 yards per game, so they have had to play a much more difficult slate of defenses.  Plus, Orton hasn't started all year, and the offense has been much better with him under center.

Cleveland hasn't been able to run the football very well, averaging 116 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  It relies mostly on the pass, averaging 251 passing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for the Bills, who rank 5th in the league against the pass at 213.8 yards per game.  They also lead the league with 46 sacks on the season, which is an astronomical number.  Brian Hoyer is going to be under duress all game as this Buffalo pass rush plays inspired football behind its home crowd.

Plays on favorites (BUFFALO) – after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games during Weeks 10 through 13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Buffalo is 43-25 ATS in its last 68 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.

Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year.  It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going.  They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court.  Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home.  That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.

Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12.  They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.

Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad.  That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12.  Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).

TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more.  It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.

Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either.  They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg).  The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).

It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least.  It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents.  The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite.  They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38).  It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.

Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5

The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play.  Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.

Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg).  Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament.  The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.

Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season.  Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg).  So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly.  They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.

Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start.  However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight.  It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.

There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year.  They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.

St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot.  They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright.  Take St. John's Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5

Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for.  It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.

The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament.  They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game.  Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.

Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65.  Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.

One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday.  They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST.  So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after.  Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on San Francisco PK

These teams are pretty much mirror images of one another. There is little that separates them in terms of the way they play. Both rely on strong running games and elite defenses to win. I believe these teams would be equals on a neutral field, but since this game is being played in Santa Clara, the advantage clearly goes to the 49ers. They should be laying a field goal to the Seahawks, but since they’re not I believe there is value in backing them at a pick 'em.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Seattle and San Francisco. The home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The only exception was a 19-17 win by the 49ers in Seattle back in 2011. The 49ers have won each of their last five home meetings with the Seahawks. I fully expect this trend to continue as they will be the more hungry team because they’ll be out for revenge from a loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship last year.

The 49ers have pulled out some gutty wins here of late in close games. They got a huge game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last week against the Redskins to pull out a victory. That game wasn’t as close as the final score of 17-13 would indicate as they outgained the Redskins 312-213 for the game. Their recent resolve in close games will serve them well in this contest as it figures to go down to the wire as well.

This San Francisco defense is getting healthy at the right time, but health hasn’t mattered all that much as this is clearly one of the deepest defenses in the league. The 49ers are giving up just 20.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL In total defense at 300.1 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their opponents average 362 yards per game against everyone else, so they are holding them to 62 yards per game below their season averages.

Without question, the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, but it has been a completely different story on the road. The Seahawks are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season. Their only two wins have come against Washington (27-17) and Carolina (13-9), while their three losses have come to San Diego, St. Louis and Kansas City. This team is very beatable when they are away from the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field.

The 49ers have the perfect antidote to stop this Seattle offense.  The Seahawks rely heavily on the run, and the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  They also have some very quick pass rushers on the edge led by Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith who have the quickness to chase down Russell Wilson when he scrambles.  Look for the Seahawks to struggle to do anything offensively against the 49ers Thursday night.

When teams have to play on short weeks, it certainly favors the home team.  That will be the case this week because the 49ers didn't have to travel anywhere after beating the Redskins at home last week.  They will be the more prepared team because of it as the Seahawks have to travel down from Seattle after their big win against the short-handed Cardinals last week.  That also sets the Seahawks up for a possible letdown spot off such a big win over the division-leading Cardinals, especially after beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship last year.  They may be a little too comfortable mentally heading into this one.

Seattle is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. The Seahawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing six points or less in their previous game. Seattle is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games following a win by more than 14 points. San Francisco is 26-9-3 ATS in its last 38 games following an ATS loss. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the 49ers Thursday.

20* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on LSU -3

While it has certainly been a down season by LSU (7-4) standards, I have seen enough from this team to know that it is worthy of being more than a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M Thursday night. Its four losses have come to the likes of Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 15, while the other (Arkansas) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

LSU even played both Mississippi State and Alabama very tough. It only lost 29-34 at home to Mississippi State, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the country. No. 1 Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU 20-13. If they can play with those two teams, the Tigers can certainly go into College Station and come away with a victory this week.

Simply put, this is a down year for Texas A&M (7-4). The Aggies are 3-4 in SEC play and have been thoroughly outplayed in each of their last four games despite going 2-2. They lost 59-0 at Alabama and were outgained by 430 yards in that contest. They barely beat Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 at home and should have lost that game as they were outgained by 104 yards. They did upset Auburn 41-38, but were outgained by 129 yards and never should have won.

The Aggies were also outgained by Missouri by 246 yards in their 27-34 home loss last time out. So, when you add up the yardage totals for their last four games, you find that the Aggies have actually been outgained by an average of 227.3 yards per game. That is the sign of a really bad team, and one that doesn’t belong on the same field as LSU Thursday night.

The difference in this game is going to be LSU’s running game against Texas A&M’s weak run defense. LSU averages 205 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, while Texas A&M gives up 210 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Tigers are going to be able to run at will on this soft Aggies’ defense. Texas A&M gave up 363 rushing yards to Auburn, 335 to Missouri, 298 to Alabama, 289 to Mississippi State, 285 to Arkansas, and 240 to Rice.  More of the same can be expected against the Tigers.

LSU has owned Texas A&M each of the last three seasons. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Aggies, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. The Aggies were much stronger the last two years than they are this season. LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10 at home last year while outgaining the Aggies 517-299 for the game, or by 218 total yards. They rushed for 324 yards in the win.

Plays on road favorites (LSU) – after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 31-4 (88.6%) ATS since 1992. Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 points per game or more. The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.  The Aggies are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in its previous game. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a bye week. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system going against Texas A&M.  Bet LSU Thursday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day MAIN COURSE on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) are 8-1 this season when Tony Romo plays the entire 60 minutes. The only loss came in the opener against the 49ers back when he was rusty after missing much of training camp with a back injury. He appears fully healthy now in leading the Cowboys to back-to-back wins and 31 points each against the Jaguars and Giants since returning from another back injury suffered against the Redskins.

Romo leads a Dallas offense that is putting up 26.5 points and 386.8 yards per game this season, ranking 6th in the league in total offense. Without question, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 68.8 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.5 per attempt.

A big reason for his success has been the offensive line and running game behind DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and seven scores to lead the league in rushing.  In fact, the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 150.1 yards per game as a team.

This Dallas offense should have its way with a Philadelphia defense that has been atrocious this year. The Eagles are giving up 25.0 points and 375.2 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total defense. They have been even worse on the road, where they are 2-3 and giving up 30.2 points and 385 yards per game away from home.

Another big reason for Dallas’ resurgence this season has been its defense, which is giving up a respectable 21.8 points and 355.0 yards per game on the year. The Cowboys have been solid against the run, allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, so they should be able to hold LeSean McCoy in check in this one.

Philadelphia has looked good at home since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback, but its two home wins with him under center have come against Carolina and Tennessee.  The Eagles were blown out in Sanchez's lone road start this year, a 20-53 beat down at the hands of Green Bay.  He completed just 59% of his passes and threw two picks in the loss, one that was returned for a touchdown.

Dallas is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia over the past two seasons. The only game it lost was in Week 17 last year when Romo had to miss the game due to his back injury. Even then, the Cowboys only lost 22-24 and actually outgained the Eagles 414-366 for the game with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Look for Romo to improve to 4-0 in his last four starts against the Eagles with a win Thursday.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) – off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS since 1983.  Another factor to consider is that this is a short week, which is much easier for the home team.  Traveling on a short week is very tough for the road team with only three days in between games and very little practice time.

Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5

Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA.  However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.

The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season.  Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level.  Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.

Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach.  He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014.  He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).

Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown.  Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77.  Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35).  That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80.  That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.

Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games.  Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game.  Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.

While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA.  They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.

The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA.  Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  It returns three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg last year), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 3.7 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (22.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Morris (11.0 ppg, 8.0 apg, 4.3 rpg) and Hogue (15.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (14.0 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 3-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82), Georgia State (81-58) and Alabama (84-74).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive. 

Alabama was 3-0 prior to losing yesterday by double-digits to the Cyclones.  Iowa State got back two key players from two-game suspensions for that game against the Crimson Tide.  Matt Thomas scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his first game game, while Abdel Nader added 4 points in the win.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Maryland has no business only being a 5-point underdog in this game.  It lost five key players from last year's team that went 17-15.  Three of those were Seth Allen (13.4 ppg), Nick Faust (9.4 ppg) and CHarles Mitchell (6.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

The Terrapins are overvalued due to their 4-0 start against weak competition.  Their first three wins all came again home against Wagner, Central Connecticut State and Fordham.  Their fourth was a 78-73 win against Arizona State yesterday, which is the same ASU team that only beat Bethune-Cookman 49-39 at home as a 23-point favorite.  This is by far the Terrapins' stiffest test of the season as they clearly aren't as battle-tested as the Cyclones.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg). 

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference.  It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking.  They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did.  Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.

These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin.  Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite.  There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.

Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well.  It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning.  Also, all three of those games were at home.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012.  While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent.  The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).

Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight  games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

20* Ravens/Saints MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans -3

There is one thing that really stands out to me about this game and shows that there is value in backing the Saints as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens. In their last two games, the Saints were 6-point home favorites against the 49ers and 8.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. After losing those two games, they are only 3-point home favorites this week.

I believe both the 49ers and Bengals are better teams than the Ravens, but they were both much bigger road underdogs. After all, Cincinnati did beat Baltimore twice this year. This over-adjustment from the oddsmakers has provided us with a ton of line value in backing the Saints at home. Sure, the Ravens are coming off a bye week, but that bye is not worth this many points.

Without question, New Orleans still has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-2 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-3-1 (86%) ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL despite the losses the last two weeks.

I have no doubt that the Saints are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate. Four of their six losses have come by a field goal or less and a combined nine points. That’s how close this is to being possibly an 8-2 team. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by 54.6 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Seahawks rank ahead of them in this department, and all four of those teams are borderline elite.

Baltimore is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with its two wins coming against the likes of Cleveland and Tampa Bay. It has lost at Indianapolis (13-20), Cincinnati (24-27) and Pittsburgh (23-43). This team is clearly not as good on the road as it is at home, where it is 4-1 on the season. Plus, New Orleans hasn’t lost three straight home games since 2005.

The Saints’ problems certainly aren’t on Drew Brees. He leads a Saints offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 424.5 yards per game.  Brees has been great all season, completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,071 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He should have another big day against a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st against the pass, giving up 251.2 yards per game. The Ravens have only picked off opposing quarterbacks six times all season.

New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games overall. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) actually have a fighting chance to win the NFC South. They are only two games back of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons for first place, who each share identical 4-6 records. Such is life in this weak division, but the Buccaneers certainly have reason to be motivated right now due to their circumstances.

The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, don’t have a whole lot to play for at this point. They are 4-6 on the season and three games back of both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. I’m not saying they won’t show up Sunday, but I do expect the Buccaneers to be the more motivated team.

Both head coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown want revenge on their former team. Smith went 81-63 in his nine seasons with the Bears and was fired after failing to make the playoffs in 2012 despite a 10-6 record. McCown went 3-2 as a starter for the Bears last year with 11 touchdowns and only one interception before signing with Tampa Bay this offseason. Look for the Bucs’ players to rally around these two Sunday.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman is squarely on the hot seat. With Smith, Chicago only gave up 19.2 points per game and 40 or more points four times in nine seasons. Under Trestman, the Bears are just 12-14, and they have given up 29.5 points per game while allowing 40 or more a whopping six times. This defense just cannot be trusted, which is why the Bears should not be laying six points to the Bucs this week.

The Bucs have been playing their best football over their last three games. They have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite going 1-2 as they were competitive in losses to the Browns and Falcons. They got back on track last week with a 27-7 win at Washington. McCown threw for 288 yards and two TD passes to rookie Mike Evans. He has thrown for 589 yards and four touchdowns against two picks in two starts since regaining the starting job he lost after suffering a thumb injury.

Tampa Bay has actually played its best football on the road this season.  While it is just 2-3 straight up away from home, it has gone a sensational 4-1 ATS.  Both of its wins came on the road against the Redskins and Steelers.  It also played New Orleans tough in a 31-37 (OT) loss as an 11-point dog and Cleveland tough in a 17-22 loss as a 7-point road dog.

Just having Smith and McCown’s knowledge of Chicago will be a huge asset in preparation this week. McCown can give the Tampa Bay defense the entire Chicago playbook, and you know that Smith will take advantage of it with his defensive expertise. There’s no question that the Bucs will have the edge in preparation because of it.

The last four games between Tampa Bay and Chicago have all been decided by six points or less with two of those going into overtime. In fact, the Buccaneers have not lost by more than six points to Chicago in any of their last six meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that happened. Dating back further, the Bucs have stayed within six points of the Bears in 17 of their last 18 meetings. That’s a 17-1 system backing the Bucs pertaining to the 6-point spread this week.

Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following a win. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Vikings +9

There is no question that the Green Bay Packers (7-3) are overvalued right now due to scoring 50-plus points in each of their last two games, which is a first in franchise history. Asking any NFL team to go on the road to win by double-digits to cover is asking a lot. That’s especially the case in a division rivalry game like this one as these games are always played closer to the vest.

Sure, the Packers beat the Eagles 53-20 last week, but that score was very misleading. They only outgained the Eagles by 46 yards in the win. Their defense gave up 429 yards to the Eagles as well. The difference was that Philadelphia committed four turnovers, and Green Bay capitalized with a whopping three non-offensive touchdowns. Any time a team is coming off a game with multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns, they are likely going to be overvalued the next week.

Sure, the Packers are 7-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers shows that they are not as good as their record would indicate. They actually rank just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 7.9 yards per game. That’s due to a defense that ranks 25th in the league in allowing 377.4 yards per game. This defense just cannot be trusted.

Green Bay did crush Minnesota 42-10 in the first meeting this year, but Christian Ponder was the starting quarterback in that game. It was closer than the final score would indicate, too, as the Packers only outgained the Vikings 320-299 for the game. The Packers simply capitalized on three Minnesota turnovers, including one that resulted in a defensive touchdown.

One thing that shows how blatantly obvious it is that the Packers are overvalued this week is based on the line compared to the first time these teams played.  Green Bay was a 9.5-point home favorite over Minnesota in the first meeting.  And, that was with Ponder as the Vikings' quarterback.  When you factor in home-field advantage, the Packers should only be a 3.5-point favorite at Minnesota in the rematch.  Factor in that Bridgewater is now the quarterback, and perhaps the Packers shouldn't even be favored at all.

The Vikings have been much more competitive with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback. They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS with Bridgewater at the helm. They beat Atlanta 41-28 and Washington 29-26 at home, while also topping Tampa Bay 19-13 on the road. They were even competitive in their losses aside from perhaps a 3-17 loss to Detroit. They also fell at Buffalo 16-17 and at Chicago 13-21.  So, they have essentially been in every game they've played with Bridgewater under center.

Bridgewater should have a very good day against this suspect Green Bay defense, but what really gives Minnesota a chance to keep this game close is its own stop unit. The Vikings are vastly improved on this side of the ball under the guidance of first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. They rank 12th in the league in total defense, giving up 340.5 yards per game. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three years.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -1

The Houston Texans (5-5) are coming off arguably their best performance of the season. They went into Cleveland and came away with a 23-7 victory last week. It was certainly their best offensive output of their year as they racked up 424 total yards in the win. A whopping 213 of that came on the ground even without Arian Foster, and he is questionable to return this week, so they have shown they can win without him in case he cannot go.

The real difference was the insertion of Ryan Mallett at quarterback over the bye week. Mallett has been biding his time in New England as Tom Brady’s backup, and he finally got his chance. This guy has a rocket of an arm on him and is a clear upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mallett completed 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the win over the Browns, which is no small feat in a tough environment.

Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. Despite its 6-3-1 record, it is only outscoring teams 22.4 to 22.1 on the year. It is actually getting outgained by an average of 39.4 yards per game, ranking 25th in the league in yardage differential. Every team in the NFL that is ranked 22nd or worse in yardage differential has no better than a .500 record aside from the Bengals, which shows how fortunate they are to have the record that they do at this point in the season.

Houston is actually outscoring teams 22.9 to 20.4 on the season, showing that by score margin alone, it is the better team than Cincinnati. Yet, this line of -1 is saying that the Bengals would be roughly 2-3 points better than the Texans on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, which is why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Texans at home in Week 12. They are in must-win mode right now if they want to make the playoffs, and I love their chances of making a run with Mallett at quarterback and J.J. Watt leading the D.

Houston is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati. It has outscored the Bengals 133-65 in the five games, or by an average of 13.6 points per game. It has outgained the Bengals by 222, 40, 127, 176 and 131 yards in its last five meetings, respectively. The Texans simply have the Bengals’ number, and I look for that to continue in 2014.

Houston ranks 3rd in the league in rushing, averaging 144.6 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season. That makes this a great matchup for the Texans. The Bengals rank 28th in the league against the run, giving up 136.2 yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season. Cincinnati is 21-40 ATS in its last 61 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game.

Plays on favorites (HOUSTON) – good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) are 61-33 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) – off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog are 123-75 (62.1%) ATS since 1983. The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

Any time you are catching double-digits in the NFL it’s a wise move to first look at taking the underdog. These double-digits dogs have proven to be a very profitable bet throughout the years. I have enough reasons supporting the Jaguars to feel confident in taking the 14 points this week against the Colts despite the fact that they have not played well against them in recent meetings.

Jacksonville has been a completely different team in its last five games. Sure, it has gone 1-4 in its last five, but all four losses have come by 14 points or fewer. In fact, the Jaguars have not lost by more than 14 points since September. They arguably should not be 1-4 in their last five either because a closer look at the box scores show that they have actually outplayed the opposition.

The Jaguars have actually outgained their last five opponents by a total of 86 yards. They outgained the Titans by 89 yards in a 14-16 road loss, outgained the Browns by 70 yards in a 24-6 home win, outgained the Dolphins by 51 yards in a 13-27 home loss, were outgained by the Bengals by 58 yards in a 23-33 road loss, and were outgained by the Cowboys by 66 yards in a 17-31 road loss. So, they haven’t been outgained by more than 66 yards in any of their last five games.

The rest factor for the Jaguars coming into this one is going to be huge. They finally had their bye last week, and they would love nothing more than to beat the division-leading Colts when they return from it Sunday. Having two full weeks to prepare for this game should do this young team wonders. They could also catch the Colts in a hangover spot from their poor performance against the Patriots last week.

This Indianapolis defense is terrible. It has given up an average of 39.0 points and 526.0 yards per game in its last three games. It gave up 42 points and 501 yards to the Patriots, 24 points and 438 yards to the Giants, and 51 points and 639 yards to the Steelers in its last three games, respectively. I believe the Jaguars will be able to move the football and put up enough points to stay within the number on Sunday.

Jacksonville is an improved defensive team as well since its first meeting with Indianapolis. It has given up a respectable 340.8 yards per game in its last five games overall. That’s impressive when you consider that it has faced some solid offenses during this stretch in Cleveland, Miami, Cincinnati and Dallas. Andrew Luck isn’t going to have the kind of success he did the first time around, especially with head coach Gus Bradley getting two weeks to prepare.

The Colts also lost a key piece to their offense in running back Ahmad Bradshaw to an ankle injury. This guy is simply irreplaceable as Trent Richardson is only half the back that Bradshaw is. Bradshaw leads the team in rushing with 425 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s an even bigger threat in the passing game. Indeed, he has a sneaky 38 receptions for 300 yards and six touchdowns on the year. Richardson only averages 3.4 yards per carry compared to Bradshaw’s 4.7. Richardson has only caught 22 passes and has yet to score.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a terrible team winning less than 25% of its games playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) actually find themselves tied for first place in the division despite their 4-6 record, and they even own the tiebreaker over the Saints. Such is life in the NFC South this season, but the Falcons aren’t going to complain. Most 4-6 teams at this point in the season would have little to play for, but that’s not the case here.

The Falcons have scratched, clawed and fought their way back into contention with impressive road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks. Their solid play here of late even extends back to the game before as they held a 21-0 lead over the Lions in London only to lose on a last-second field goal, 22-21.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC.

The biggest difference for the Falcons during this stretch of solid play is their defense. They have held their last three opponents to an average of just 18.7 points per game. That has helped compliment an offense that remains one of the league’s best. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points per game while ranking 10th in total offense at 367.3 yards per game.

Cleveland (6-4) is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season. It is nowhere near as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and the numbers show it. The Browns rank just 22nd in the league in total defense, giving up 372.3 yards per game. They also rank 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 16.2 yards per game. Of all the teams that rank below them at 22nd or worse in this department, only the Bengals have a winning record. Cincinnati is also an overrated team.  The Browns have been outgained in four of their last five games, including to Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

The Browns gave up 424 total yards to a mediocre Houston offense last week, including 213 rushing without Arian Foster, in their 23-7 loss.  The Browns are just decimated right now in the injury department on defense.  They are already missing defensive end Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.  Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn have been slowed all season by injuries.  Now, they are going to be without their top two linebackers in Karlos Dansby (leading tackler, 73 tackles, 10 for loss, 3 sacks) and Jabaal Sheard (6 TFL, 2 sacks), who each went down with injuries in the loss to Houston.

I know that the Cleveland offense gets back Josh Gordon this week, but that's another reason I believe it is being overvalued here.  Gordon hasn't played all season and I expect him to be a non-factor this week, or at least not as big of a factor as he's getting credit for.  One thing here that gets overlooked is that the Browns have had no running game since center Alex Mack went out with a season-ending injury.  They are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry in Mack's absence.

The Falcons have actually done a decent job of getting to 4-6 this season because they have only played three home games all year compared to seven on the road. They are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan is 38-12 as a starter inside the Georgia Dome for his career. Many folks like to forget how much more dominant he has been at home compared to on the road over his career.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has played six of its 10 games at home thus far, which had aided its 6-4 record.  It is a respectable 2-2 on the road with a good win against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but the other three performances leave a lot to be desired.  The Browns lost 6-24 at Jacksonville, came back from 28-3 down to win 29-28 at lowly Tennessee, and came back from 27-3 down to lose 27-30 at Pittsburgh in the opener.

Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) – after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  I look for Ryan and company to win in a shootout.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Timberwolves UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.  If this was last year, this total would be justified, but these are two completely different teams from last year.

Minnesota no longer has Kevin Love, and it is battling all kinds of injury issues right now.  It is without each of its top three scorers in Kevin Martin (20.4 ppg), Thaddeus Young (14.3 ppg) and Nikola Pekovic (11.9 ppg) due to injuries or personal issues right now. They are also without starting PG Ricky Rubio right now, which has hurt their offense.

Points were certainly hard to come by for the Timberwolves in their first game without all three of these guys last night.  The Timberwolves managed just 92 points on 41.1% shooting against the San Antonio Spurs Friday.

Sacramento lost point guard Isaiah Thomas this offseason, but it has actually been better without him.  It is off to a solid 7-5 start this season.  The biggest reason is its improvement on defense as it is giving up just 100.8 points per game and 43.8% shooting.

The Kings actually rank in the top half of the league (13th) in defensive efficiency this year, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are a better defensive team without Martin and Pekovic, who are liabilities on that end.  So, their defensive numbers should improve going forward.

The Kings & Timberwolves have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, and six of their last seven meetings overall.  That says a lot because the Timberwolves were a much better offensive team with Kevin Love and a healthy Rubio, Pekovic and Martin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Sacramento is 17-4 to the UNDER in its last 21 off four straight games where it forced opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 208.5

This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  I fully expect a defensive battle as the Toronto Raptors travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Both teams rank right in the middle of the pack in pace.  Toronto is 13th with 95.9 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 95.4 possessions per game.  Neither of these teams really like to get up and down as they prefer to run their offense in the half court.

Toronto is combining with its opponents to average 201.6 points per game this season.  Cleveland is combining with its foes to average 204.5 points per game on the year.  Those two numbers alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing this UNDER tonight.

The Cavaliers are averaging just 88.3 points per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Their defense has been better as they have held three of their last four opponents to 94 or fewer points.  All three of them were good offensive teams in Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington as well.

Toronto and Cleveland have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, including 196 or less in five of those.  Dating back further, they have combined for 202 or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games as well.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5

The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.

Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22.  Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple.  It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.

I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season.  It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg).  They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.

Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one.  The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year.  It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year.  So, that win is not as bad as it looks.

The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive.  Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA.  It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.

Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple.  This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.

They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday.  I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8. 

The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight.  I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes.  Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less.  Take Temple Friday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Bulls/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings both could be missing key players tonight.  Derrick Rose (18.0 ppg) and Pau Gasol (18.6 ppg) are both questionable to return, while Rudy Gay (21.8 ppg) is also questionable for Sacramento.

The good news is that I like this UNDER no matter whether these three play or not, but if they don't play it's going to be an added bonus.  I fully expect a defensive battle between the Bulls and Kings on TNT tonight.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  Opponents are shooting just 42.9% against the Bulls, who rank 7th in the league in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions this year.

These teams have played in some low-scoring games in recent years.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Kings.  They have combined for 181, 169, 200, and 180 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 182.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls' last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Kings last 20 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Kings last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +7.5

Any time you’re backing the team with the worst record in the NFL this late in the season, there’s going to be some value. I certainly believe that is the case Thursday with the Oakland Raiders (0-10), who are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. They would love nothing more than to get it against one of their most hated rivals in the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3).

The Raiders have been fighting hard for weeks now, but they continually come up short. By their results, they clearly have not packed it in. Five of their last six losses have come by 11 points or less, and all six were against playoff contenders in San Diego (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle and Denver. This brutal schedule will have them battle-tested heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Kansas City is in a massive letdown AND lookahead spot here. It just beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday, and now it has Denver on deck at home next week with first place in the AFC West on the line.  They will have a hard time getting up emotionally for the Raiders enough to win this game by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover the spread.

The Chiefs are also way overvalued here because they have covered the spread in five consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and so have the oddsmakers, forcing them to inflate this line above the key number of seven.  Any time you get a home underdog in the NFL catching more than a touchdown, there's going to be some value.  That's especially the case in division rivalry games that are played much closer to the vest.  Most of the time, records can be thrown out the window in these games.

Oakland has gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas City over the past four seasons. In fact, the Raiders have outgained the Chiefs in seven of their last eight meetings. Sure, the Chiefs swept the season series last year, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. The Raiders outgained the Chiefs 274-216 in their 24-7 road loss. They also outgained the Chiefs 461-384 in their 31-56 home loss.

Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on any team (OAKLAND) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 99-57 (63.5%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 8-26 ATS in its last 34 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Roll with the Raiders Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3

The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight.  SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking.  That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.

Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season.  It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.

SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues.  He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year.  That means they are down to two returning starters.  They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.

Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year.  Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already.  It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams.  It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season.  They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.

"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."

Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12.  They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field.  Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.

It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight.  "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."

The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3.  Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana.  Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana.  The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday.  They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.

Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year.  It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here.  This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.

Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's.  It didn't get destroyed in either game.  It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.

Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more.  That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.

Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with Drexel Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard.  However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here.  McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.

The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).

I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State.  It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.

Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997.  Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on display once again in this one.

New York is scoring just 93.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting.  It is struggling in the new Triangle Offense, which is why it ranks 30th in the league in pace at 91.8 possessions per game.  It just struggles to find decent shots within the confines of the offense.

Milwaukee has been even worse than New York offensively.  It is putting up just 91.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting.  It ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 94.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only OKC and Philadelphia have been worse.

Both teams have played reasonably well defensively to keep them in games.  Milwaukee is giving up 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, ranking 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency.  It is allowing just 94.7 points per 100 possessions.  New York gives up 98.1 points per game on 44.9% shooting.

New York has only topped 100 points in one of its 11 games this season, while Milwaukee has only topped 97 points once all season, and that came in an overtime game.  The Bucks have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games this year, while the Knicks have given up 98 or fewer in seven of their 11 games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games overall with combined scores of 168, 181, 193, 185, 163, 186 and 175 points.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15.  I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.

Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg).  It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.

The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.

Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15.  It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.

The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception.  They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th.  That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year.  The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.

Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998.  That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite.  Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.

Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Duke Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

20* Steelers/Titans AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) got the wake-up call they needed last week on a 20-13 road loss to the Jets. That will help them avoid a letdown this week against the Titans knowing that they need a win if they want to win the AFC North division. They cannot afford to lose to teams like this if they are going to make the playoffs, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win by a touchdown or more. They will also be extra motivated to lay it all on the line knowing that their bye is next week.

Pittsburgh was playing some great football prior to that loss to the Jets. It had beaten Houston (30-23), Indianapolis (51-34) and Baltimore (43-23) in impressive efforts by the offense the previous three weeks. The loss to the Jets was a complete fluke as they actually outgained them 362-275 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the win to New York. They will be much sharper with the football this week against Tennessee because of it.

The Titans are abysmal this year. They have gone through three different starting quarterbacks because the offense just hasn’t been able to get anything going. They played well in their opener against Kansas City, but haven’t played well since. Their only other win was a 16-14 home victory over the hapless Jaguars, and they were even outgained by 89 yards in that game.

Five of the Titans’ seven losses have come by 14 points or more, so they have been prone to the blowout regularly. They have actually been outgained by 50 or more yards in each of their last six games, and by 102 or more yards in three of those. They rank 31st in the league in total offense, averaging just 308.7 yards per game. They stand at 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 60.0 yards per game on the season.

Tennessee (2-7) won’t be able to keep up with a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 408.4 yards per game. The Steelers have been better defensively, too, giving up 347.0 yards per game compared to the 368.7 yards per game the Titans have allow. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining the opposition by an average of 61.4 yards per game on the season.

Rookie Zach Mettengerger has played OK in his two starts for the Titans, but he has not done anything special and will struggle against Dick LeBeau's complicated blitz schemes in this one.  In fact, the Steelers are 18-2 against rookie signla-callers since LeBeau returned as defensive coordinator in 2004.

Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-29 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Tennessee is 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Tennessee is 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 home games. The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23

The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12.  They finished just 17-15.

Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced.  They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg).  They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year.  Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.

The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points.  They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points.  They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.

Texas Southern is not a very good team.  It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis.  Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.

It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game.  They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season.  Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.

It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington.  It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64).  If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.  Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner.  The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.

Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low.  PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year.  SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.

The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad.  Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes.  Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.

Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year.  While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves.  They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday.  If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.

Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas.  Bet Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 193

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets square off Sunday in what I believe will be a defensive battle.  These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and that will be on display tonight.

The Rockets have gone 8-1 to the UNDER this season due to their improvement on the defensive end.  They have three of the best defenders in the league at their respective positions in C Dwight Howard, SF Trevor Ariza and PG Patrick Beverly.  Beverly has missed a few games due to injury, but he is expected to return Sunday and will shut down OKC's Reggie Jackson.

Houston is giving up just 91.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting this season.  It ranked No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 92.9 points per 100 possessions.  Its offense has taken a step back with the loss of Chandler Parsons and the injury to Terrance Jones as it is shooting just 44.1% this season.

Oklahoma City is playing without Kevin Durant AND Russell Westbrook, and as a result, points have been very hard to come by.  The Thunder are scoring just 92.0 points per game and shooting 43.3% from the floor.  They rank 28th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 96.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder know they aren't going to win any shootouts with anyone without Westbrook and Durant, so they have tried to shorten the games by playing at a slow pace.  Indeed, they rank 24th in the league in pace at 93.6 possessions per game.  They have been dominant defensively, giving up just 96.5 points per game and 43.5% shooting to the opposition this year.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 49-19 (72.1%) over the last five seasons.  Houston is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 games off a win.  The UNDER is 14-5 in Thunder's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions +1

The Arizona Cardinals can survive without Carson Palmer. However, they clearly aren’t going to be as strong of a team without him, and Drew Stanton has struggled in limited action this year. He has gone 2-1 as a starter without Palmer, but the two wins came against the likes of the Texans and Giants, while the other was a blowout loss to the Broncos. Stanton is completing just 49.5% of his passes on the season compared to Palmer’s 62.9%.

This Arizona team is one of the most overrated in the league. It got two defensive touchdowns late last week to get the win and cover against the Rams, and it has been getting lucky breaks like that all year. They are +12 in turnover differential on the season, which is tied for first in the NFL.  Regression to the mean is going to happen at some point for this team.  A closer look into the numbers shows that the Cardinals are nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.

The Cardinals rank just 24th in the league in total offense at 330.9 yards per game. They rank 15th in total defense at 352.8 yards per game and have been nowhere near as dominant as they get credit for on that side of the ball. They rank 21st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 21.9 yards per game. They have been outgained by over 200 yards on the season.  Only one team (Cincinnati) ranked worse than them in yardage differential even has a .500 record or better, so they are in some pretty bad company.

Detroit, meanwhile, is the real deal this season. It has managed to go 7-2 despite playing without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for a good portion of the season. Johnson returned last week as the Lions beat the Dolphins 20-16 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Lions outgained the Dolphins 351-228 for the game, but they had a field goal blocked that was returned to their 3-yard line to set up Miami’s only touchdown. Otherwise, that game was a complete rout in the Lions' favor.

The reason the Lions have been able to play well without Johnson and Bush for stretches is because of their defense. Indeed, they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense AND total defense, giving up just 15.8 points and 283.4 yards per game. They are also 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 56.7 yards per game. You have to really look out for this team now that Johnson is back because the offense had underachieved up to this point, but it has the talent to be one of the best units in the NFL.

Arizona is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Detroit is 38-21 ATS in its last 59 versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or more rushing yards per game. Arizona has been good against the run but terrible against the pass (30th), giving up 274 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt through the air. That plays right into the Lions hands as they rely a lot more on the pass than the run to move the football.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -9

This game really has blowout written all over it. Simply put, the St. Louis Rams (3-6) aren’t going to be able to score enough points to keep up with Denver’s high-powered offense in this one. Peyton Manning will love the opportunity to go back indoors and play in a dome just like he used to in his Indianapolis days. He should thrive against the hapless Rams inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

Manning leads a Denver unit that is putting up 31.8 points and 414.7 yards per game on the season to rank 3rd in the league in total offense. That is really impressive when you consider that it has faced a very tough schedule up to this point. It has already had two play two of the league’s top three defenses in San Francisco and Seattle, and it put up an average of 31.0 points per game against those two teams.

Many will hang onto St. Louis’ recent wins over San Francisco and Seattle as a barometer of what it is capable of. However, the Rams should have lost both of those games as they were outgained by 188 yards by the Seahawks and 70 yards by the 49ers. They have actually actually been outgained by 70 or more yards in five straight games, which includes blowout losses to the Cardinals (14-31), Chiefs (7-34) and 49ers (17-31) during this stretch.

Opposing defensive coordinators now have no problem stopping the Rams’ offense. They have caught on to Austin Davis’ tendencies, but the fact of the matter is that he simply doesn’t have much talent around him.  The Rams are expected to give the ball to Shaun Hill for this one, and the results are going to be the same or even worse.  Davis actually did a pretty good job of working with what he had, which isn't much.

The Rams rank 30th in the NFL in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  They have scored 11.3 points per game while averaging 212.3 yards per game in their last three.  They have played five straight physical games against San Francisco (twice), Seattle, Kansas City and Arizona.  They don't have a whole lot left in the tank at this point, especially considering they have little to play for the rest of the way.

As stated before, they simply do not have the firepower on the offensive side of the ball to match the Broncos score for score and to stay within single-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread. A contributing factor to that will be this improved Denver stop unit. The Broncos are only giving up 314.1 yards per game this season to rank 5th in the NFL in total defense. Unlike last year, they have been dominant on both sides of the football in 2014.

The Broncos are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall with 21 of those victories coming by a touchdown or more. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. It is beating these teams by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle +1.5

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the defending champs as an underdog. Seattle is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games as a dog.  I believe you should take advantage almost any chance you get, especially this week against the overmatched Chiefs. The Seahawks obviously haven’t played up to their potential to this point, but that is the reason they are undervalued. They have still won three in a row coming in, and their numbers are just as good as they were last year.

Seattle put up 510 total yards on the Giants last week and I would argue that the offense is more explosive than it was a year ago. That has been proven in the numbers as the Seahawks rank 10th in the league in total offense this year at 365.3 yards per game. They have put up an average of 26.7 points per game as well. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league with what he can do with his arm and his legs.

The Seahawks have had a banged-up offensive line all season.  They finally are getting healthy as both tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger have returned to the lineup.  Marshawn Lynch has been his same old dominant self as a result.  Lynch rushed for 140 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week as the Seahawks racked up 350 yards on the ground as a team.

While the Seahawks aren’t No. 1 in the NFL in total defense like they were a year ago, they are still damn close and have an elite stop unit. They are only giving up 21.2 points per game and 306.7 yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. They rank 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Keep in mind that they have also faced a brutal schedule up to this point, which is always the case for the defending champs.

Kansas City has done a nice job of fighting back from an 0-2 hole to win six of its last seven games overall. However, that winning streak is the reason I believe it is overvalued here. All six of those wins outside of St. Louis, which is one of the worst teams in the NFC, came against AFC opponents. Seattle will be the best team that the Chiefs have faced this year, aside from perhaps the Broncos, which was one of their three losses.

Last week, the Chiefs were dominated in the box score by the Bills, getting outgained 278-364 for the game, but they managed to erase a 13-3 deficit to win 17-13. They were aided by three turnovers from the Bills. They won’t be given those same gifts this week, and when they get dominated in the box score by the Seahawks, they will lose like they should.

Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 332.0 yards per game. Alex Smith remains a dink-and-dunk passer, and that is not going to work against this physical Seattle defense. Smith is going to be forced to try to make some plays over the top, and I don’t believe he is capable of doing so. He also lacks the weapons to do it.  In fact, the Chiefs have not had a touchdown by a wide receiver all season.  That is absolutely pathetic and prevents the Chiefs from being among the elite teams in the league.

Smith is a good game manager, but when they need him to really step up and make plays against elite defenses like Seattle, he simply isn’t equipped to do it. A good example of that came back on October 5th against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 2nd in the league in total defense. The Chiefs managed just 17 points and 265 total yards in that game, including just 175 passing. Smith didn’t make enough plays against the 49ers to win, and he won’t this week, either.

Seattle is a sensational 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons & 15-2 ATS as a dog in its last 17 overall. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Chiefs are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) are still very much alive in the NFC South race. They are just one game behind the Saints (4-5) for first place in the division, and they own the tiebreaker as well after beating New Orleans at home back in Week 1. That’s why motivation will not be a factor for this team, which has to have a lot of confidence that it can go on the road and win again after beating the Bucs 27-17 last week.

It was the second straight solid performance for the Falcons away from home. They had gone over to London in their previous game and should have beaten the Detroit Lions, but they let a 21-0 lead get away from them and lost 21-22. That narrow loss to the Lions doesn’t look bad at all considering Detroit is 7-2 on the season and one of the best teams in the NFC.

Carolina is far from the team it was a year ago. It has all kinds of problems on both sides of the football. It has only won one of its last eight games overall. The Panthers have been blown out repeatedly during this stretch, losing to the likes of Pittsburgh (19-37) by 18, Baltimore (10-38) by 28, Green Bay (17-38) by 21, New Orleans (10-28) by 18, and Philadelphia (21-45) by 24. They will now be working on a short week as well after losing to the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

There is nothing to like about the Panthers on either side of the football. They rank 25th in the league in total offense at 320.8 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 376.8 yards per game. That leaves them at 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 56.0 yards per game.

The Panthers have actually been outgained in nine straight games since their opener against Tampa Bay. They have also been outscored by 8.3 points per game on the season as they are yielding 28.1 per game defensively and scoring 19.8 per game on offense.  They have allowed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games while yielding an average of 32.5 points per game during this stretch.

Admittedly, the Falcons don’t have a very good defense, but they have played better on this side of the football in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in their last two, so they have shown some progress on defense of late unlike the Panthers, who just seem to get worse each week.

What makes the Falcons the play this week is their offense, which has produced 24.3 points and 369.7 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. It’s been nice to see what Matt Ryan can do when he has a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White at his disposal.  The Atlanta offense will be the difference in this one as it will consistently put up points on this weak Carolina defense.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – after having lost six or seven out of their last eight games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -7

I simply trust the New Orleans Saints more than the Cincinnati Bengals right now. They have done an excellent job of fighting back from a 2-4 start to win two of their last three games with their only loss coming in overtime to the 49ers. They blew out both the Packers (44-23) at home and the Panthers (28-10) on the road, and they are fully capable of doing the same to the Bengals this week.

One thing that really stands out about that loss to the 49ers last week is that they simply gave it away by committing three turnovers. They actually outgained the 49ers 423-330 for the game, or by 93 total yards. They obviously should have won, but the fact that they didn’t has made this line smaller than it should be.

I really do not trust the Bengals to perform well right now. They have gone just 2-3-1 in their last four games overall with all three losses coming via blowout against New England (17-43), Indianapolis (0-27) and Cleveland (3-24). The loss to the Browns last week was the most troubling because they were dominated so handily. The Browns actually outgained them 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards, in their 24-3 win in Cincinnati.

That’s right, the Cincinnati offense was held to just 165 total yards against the Browns. It also committed four turnovers in the loss. Andy Dalton was abysmal, completing just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards with three interceptions. I don’t believe he can match Drew Brees score for score in this one, which is what it’s going to take for the Bengals to stay within a touchdown. I’ll gladly bet against Dalton with the way he has been playing of late.

Brees is hitting on all cylinders again this season. He leads a New Orleans unit that is putting up 27.9 points per game while ranking 2nd in the league in total offense at 435.0 yards per game. He should have his way with a Cincinnati defense that ranks 30th in the league in giving up 391.9 yards per game. So, the entire problem isn’t all on Dalton’s shoulders because the defense has been atrocious as well.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-1 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 home game. It's also worth noting that the Saints haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2009.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent. The Bengals are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss by 21 points or more. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. It is coming back to win by an average of 19.0 points per game in this spot. Cincinnati is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Road teams are 7-21 ATS in the last 28 games involving the Bengals.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks.  This is an under bettors' dream tonight.  Both teams love to slow it down and play at a snail's pace, which will lead to an easy cash on the UNDER in this one.

New York has really been struggling to learn the Triangle Offense, which is why it is putting up just 91.6 points per game this season on 43.7% shooting.  It has yet to score 100 points in any game this season.  Utah has been a little better offensively, but it is still just scoring 97.6 points per game on the year.  It has failed to top 97 points in any of its last four games.

Because the Knicks are lost offensively, they rank dead last (30th) in the league in pace at 91.2 possessions per game.  Utah also likes to slow it down, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game.  Fewer possessions equal fewer points, which is precisely how this game will play out tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Knicks and Jazz, and this was before the Knicks went to this new offense. They have combined for 175, 189 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 193, showing you that there is value on this UNDER based on the head-to-head history.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.