Winning Sports Picks

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Giants/Rockies OVER 11

Temperatures will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight.  I fully expect the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies to both hang a big number offensively against these two poor starting pitchers tonight.

Alex Cobb has been terrible on the road this season with a 6.19 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven starts away from home.  Cobb has posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in three career starts against Colorado.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-7 victory at Colorado on May 17th in his last start against the Rockies.

Ryan Feltner has been even worse for the Rockies this season.  He is 2-4 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-2 witha. 7.65 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in four home starts.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, both of which came at home.

The OVER is 13-4 in Cobb's last 17 road starts.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Giants last eight road games.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mariners/A's OVER 7

The Seattle Mariners are as healthy as they have been all season and raking at the plate right now.  They have scored 4 runs or more in seven of their last eight games overall while averaging 6.5 runs per game during this stretch.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own, and the A's can chip in as they have scored 3 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall.

Logan Gilbert has been a disaster recently for the Mariners.  He is 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.022 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 31 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Gilbert has posted a 4.44 ERA in five career starts against Oakland.

James Kaprielian is 3-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in eight home starts.  Kaprielian has posted a 4.00 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners.

The forecast should also help us cash this OVER with 13 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to right at the Coliseum.  The OVER is 14-4 in Seattle's 18 road games this season with a total set of 7 to 7.5 runs.  The OVER is 10-1-2 in Mariners last 13 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Las Vegas Raiders PK

No analysis for preseason.

15* Texans/Rams NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -2

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Twins OVER 8

The books have set the number too low tonight in this game between the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins.  The Twins are hitting up to their potential of late in scoring 4 runs or more in five of their last seven games overall.  The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last 12 games overall.

Dylan Bundy has not been very good this season as he is 6-5 with a 4.76 ERA while averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  Bundy allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone start against Texas this season back on July 10th.

Martin Perez has come back down to reality of late and allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Houston Astros in his last road start.  Perez allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings to the Twins in his lone start against them this season on July 9th.  He fell to 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota.

The OVER is 9-0 in Perez's last nine starts.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 7-2-2 in Rangers last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games following an off day.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  But both have struggled in recent weeks, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Now there's a ton of value on the OVER 7.5 tonight and we'll take advantage, just as we did last night in cashing in the OVER 8.

Kevin Gausman is 8-9 in spite of a 3.16 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  Gausman is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, allowing 7 earned runs in 11 innings.

Jameson Taillon is 11-3 in spite of a 3.95 ERA in 23 starts this season.  I just don't think this guy is as good as his record, and that has shown in recent starts as he is 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  The Blue Jays will get to him tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings as the Yankees and Blue Jays have combined for 8 runs or more in five of those and 11 or more in four of them.  The OVER is 27-9-1 in Blue Jays last 37 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 12-3-1 in Yankees last 16 home games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees has six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bears/Seahawks NFLX Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40

No analysis for preseason.

20* Mets/Braves NL East No-Brainer on New York -120

It's rare that you get the opportunity to back the best starter in baseball in Jacob DeGrom at nearly even money.  We'll take advantage today and back the Mets to beat the Atlanta Braves and even this series.

DeGrom has been awesome since coming off the IL.  He is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.420 WHIP in three starts this season with a whopping 28 K's in 16 2/3 innings with only one homer and one walk allowed.  DeGrom is 10-7 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in 26 career starts against the Braves.

Max Fried will be making his return from an IL stint and will likely be on a pitch count.  Fried has lost his last two starts against the Mets while allowing 6 runs, 4 earned, and 17 base runners in 11 innings.  The Mets will get to him again today.

The Mets are 22-8 in their last 30 games overall.  New York is 10-1 in its last 11 Thursday games.  Take the Mets Thursday.

25* AL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  But both have struggled in recent weeks, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Now there's a ton of value on the OVER 8 tonight, and thus this is my favorite total in the American League for the entire season.

The Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own.  They'll be up against Jose Berrios, who has some of the most drastic home/road splits this season.  He is 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 11 road starts this season.  He is also 0-1 with a 15.25 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 7 2/3 innings to the Guardians and Twins.

Berrios is 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in eight career starts against the Yankees as well.  He'll be opposed by Frankie Montas, who has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in his las three starts.  He is off to a rough start for the Yankees since getting traded to them from the A's.  It won't get any easier for him tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as the Yankees and Blue Jays have combined for 8 runs or more in four of those and 11 or more in three of them.  The OVER is 9-2 in Berrios' 11 road starts this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Yankees last seven home games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  The OVER is 26-9-1 in Blue Jays last 36 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 11-3-1 in Yankees last 15 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rays/Yankees OVER 8

This total has been set too low due to the Yankees' recent struggles at the plate.  But they are too good to get held down for long, and I expect them to bust out of their slump today.  I also expect the Rays to keep pace as these are two vulnerable starting pitchers.  Plus, the forecast is going to help us with 9 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to center at Yankee Stadium.

Domingo German is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in five starts this season.  He hasn't been able to figure out the Rays, posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Corey Kluber, who is 7-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA in his last three.

Tampa Bay is a perfect 8-0 OVER following three or more consecutive unders this season.  The OVER is 10-3-1 in Yankees last 14 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +120

The Chicago White Sox are finally playing up to their potential.  They have won four consecutive games to try and chase down the Twins and Guardians in the AL Central.  Speaking of momentum, Chicago's starter tonight is in the midst of a historic run that will continue.

Amazingly, Dylan Cease has allowed one earned run or fewer in 14 consecutive starts to improve to 12-5 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts this season.  For my money, he is the best starter in the American League this season when you consider he has a whopping 174 K's in 128 2/3 innings.

It's between Cease and Verlander for the AL Cy Young this season most likely, and these two will match up tonight.  Verlander had one of his worst starts of the season against the White Sox in his lone start against them in 2022.  He allowed 7 runs, 4 earned, and 9 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 7-0 loss to the White Sox on June 18th.

The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight road games.  Chicago is 4-1 in its last five home meetings with Houston.  The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Cease should not be a home underdog tonight.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

25* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Mets/Braves OVER 8.5

These are two of the best offenses in the National League.  The Mets are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season while the Braves are scoring 4.9 runs per game.  The forecast is calling for 11 MPH winds blowing out to center today to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  This is my favorite bet of the entire season when it comes to National League totals.

Taijuan Walker and Charlie Morton both struggle shutting down these respective lineups.  Walker has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.  Morton has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against the Mets in 2022.

The OVER is 10-1 in Morton's 11 night starts this season.  The OVER is 11-1 in Morton's 12 starts vs. teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 10 runs or more in five of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Guardians UNDER 8

The Detroit Tigers are scoring 3.2 runs per game overall, including 2.8 runs per game on the road.  The Cleveland Guardians are scoring just 4.1 runs per game at home.  The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 8 ticket.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing in from right-center at Progressive Field tonight.

Zach Plesac owns the Tigers.  He is 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  Garrett Hill has had two of his best starts against the Guardians in 2022.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 11 innings with a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in two starts against them this season.

The UNDER is 12-4-5 in Tigers last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 53-25-5 in Tigers last 83 road games.  The UNDER is 45-21-6 in Tigers last 72 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Guardians last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Guardians last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)

The Toronto Blue Jays will be highly motivated for a victory today after losing five of their last six games overall, including Game 1 of this series to the Baltimore Orioles.  But now they send ace Alek Manoah to the mound to stop the bleeding, and he's one of my favorite starters to back in all of baseball.

Manoah is 12-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Dean Kremer, who is 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kremer has been awful against the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with an 11.33 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 10 1/3 innings.

Manoah is 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.  The Blue Jays are 15-3 when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season and combing back to win by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 34-6 in their last 40 games overall with a whopping 30 wins by two runs or more.  We should not be getting them as underdogs on the Run Line tonight, but we'll gladly take advantage and back them due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Julio Urias is 12-6 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 7-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.995 WHIP In 12 road starts.  Urias is 5-0 with a 1.09 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 33 innings.  He always seems to get better in the second half of the season.

Urias owns the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Freddy Peralta, who just can't stay healthy this season.  Peralta has a 4.37 ERA in 10 starts this season and a 6.26 ERA in five home starts.  He'll be making just his 3rd start back from the IL after missing nearly three months of action.

The Dodgers are 22-3 in Urias' 25 starts in the second half of the season over the last two season and winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday. 

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +140

The New York Mets are playing too well to be this big of an underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight.  The Mets are 17-3 in their last 20 games overall despite playing playoff contenders in the Yankees, Braves, Phillies and Padres during this stretch.

Carlos Carrasco is pitching too well to be this big of an underdog, too.  Carrasco is 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing just 8 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings.  He has held the Braves to just 3 earned runs in 14 innings in two starts against them in 2022.

Spencer Strider is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is coming off one of his worst starts of the season when he allowed 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to these Mets on August 7th.  He is now 0-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 2.180 WHIP in two career starts against New York.

Carrasco's teams are 12-0 in his last 12 starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game.  They are winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Mets are 8-0 in their last eight Monday games.  New York is 10-1 in its last 11 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or less.  Roll with the Mets Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

Two of the worst starting pitchers on their respective teams go tonight when the Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays for Game 1 of this series Monday.  Look for a slug fest to ensue, which is almost always the case when these two teams get together.

Yusei Kikuchi is definitely the weak link in Toronto's rotation.  He is 4-6 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.494 WHIP in 19 starts this season while allowing 18 homers in 79 innings.  Kikuchi is 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 innings in two starts against the Orioles in 2022.

Kyle Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing 13 homers in 61 2/3 innings.  Bradish is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.760 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto, allowing 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 18-5-3 in the last 26 meetings, including 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto.  In fact, the OVER is 11-0-1 in the last 12 meetings with combined scores of 10 runs or more in all 12 meetings.  The Orioles and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in 14 consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -115

The Seattle Mariners are 33-14 in their last 47 games overall and just got young star Julio Rodriquez back from injury.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team down the stretch as they try and earn a wild card spot.  The Texas Rangers are just 9-18 in their last 27 games overall.  

Logan Gilbert is 10-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 13 road starts.  The Mariners are 10-3 in his 13 road starts.  Gilbert has never lost to the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in three starts against Texas in 2022.

Martin Perez is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He just allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Astros in his last start.  Perez has posted a fortunate 3.52 ERA despite a 1.527 WHIP in 24 career starts against the Mariners.  The Rangers are 0-2 in Perez's two starts against Seattle this season.

The Mariners own the Rangers in going 37-14 in the last 51 meetings, including 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Texas.  The Rangers are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.  The Mariners are 20-7 in their last 27 road games.  Seattle is 22-6 in its last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +1.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Guardians/Blue Jays OVER 8

This is a very low total for a game involving the Toronto Blue Jays.  They have lost five of their last six and have been held down offensively, but it won't last because they have too much talent.  The Guardians will get their run as they stay hot at the plate in the midst of a six-game winning streak.

Triston McKenzie has allowed 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts coming in.  He is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his season-long stats.  He is susceptible to the long ball as he has allowed 13 homers in 73 2/3 innings on the road this season.

Mitch White goes for the Blue Jays.  He is getting too much respect as well.  He was traded from the Dodgers to the Blue Jays and has had very limited action in the big leagues with just 110 1/3 innings pitched.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start for the Blue Jays this season.

The OVER is 37-18 in Blue Jays last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* Packers/49ers NFLX No-Brainer on San Francisco ML -142

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Red Sox OVER 9

The books have set the bar too low in this rivalry between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Yankees have the best offense at 5.3 runs per game.  The Red Sox have gotten healthier lately and are starting to hit the ball again, scoring 4 runs or more in six consecutive games.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game at home this season.

Domingo German is still trying to work his way back from injury and hasn't lasted more than 5 innings in any start.  He is 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in four starts this season.  German has a 4.46 ERA in eight career starts against Boston.

Nathan Eovaldi is also trying to work his way back from injury.  He has been a disaster at home this season, going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in seven starts at Fenway Park.  Eovaldi has allowed 6 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees this season.

Boston is 7-0 OVER vs. AL teams that are scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  The Red Sox are 10-0 OVER vs. excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more homers per game this season.  The OVER is 21-8-2 in Yankees last 31 games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with 9 combined runs or more in all seven meetings and 11 or more in six of them.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -150

The Toronto Blue Jays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after a tough eight-game road trip that saw them lose four of their final five games.  Now the Blue Jays are back home where they are 34-21 on the season.  They had yesterday off while the Cleveland Guardians completed their series with the Tigers Thursday, so they have the rest advantage.

A big reason I'm willing to lay this juice is because Jose Berrios gets the ball for the Blue Jays.  Berrios is 6-0 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and the Blue Jays are a PERFECT 11-0 in his 11 home starts.  He'll be opposed by Cal Quantrill, who is 2-5 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.613 WHP In nine road starts this season.

The Blue Jays are 9-0 in their last nine games following an off day.  Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

15* NFLX Friday ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions ML -130

No analysis for preseason.

20* Titans/Ravens NFLX No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -110

Few teams have been hotter than the St. Louis Cardinals over the past month.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall including a sweep of the New York Yankees.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall and are absolutely raking at the plate right now.

The Cardinals will stay hot today against German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies.  Marquez is 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He has allowed 45 earned runs and 14 homers in 66 1/3 innings at Coors Field this season.

Dakota Hudson is consistently one of the more underrated starters in baseball year after year.   He has gone 6-6 with a respectable 4.20 ERA in 20 starts this season.  The key to his game is he doesn't give up homers, allowing just 8 in 105 innings pitched this season.  Hudson is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Rockies, allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.

St. Louis is 34-13 in its last 47 games as a road favorite of -110 or higher.  The Cardinals are 30-12 in their last 42 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 49-23 in the last 72 meetings.  The Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory today to even this series after losing two of the first three games to the Kansas City Royals.  I like their chances of winning in blowout fashion this afternoon due to their big advantage on the mound.

Dylan Cease is in the midst of a historic run for the White Sox right now.  He has allowed one earned run or fewer in 13 consecutive starts to improve to 12-4 with a 1.98 ERA in 22 starts this season.  He is 7-1 with a 1.32 ERA in 10 road starts and the White Sox have gone 9-1 in those starts.

Cease is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 career starts against the Royals.  He'll be opposed by Zack Greinke, who is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA In 18 starts this season.  Greinke is 9-10 with a 4.11 ERA in 27 career starts against the White Sox.

Chicago is 12-2 in Cease's 14 day starts this season and winning by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  The White Sox are 21-7 in Cease's last 28 starts following a team loss and winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 25-6 in Cease's last 31 starts vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 2.7 runs per game.  Take the White Sox on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Giants/Padres NL West No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

It was only a matter of time before the San Diego Padres got their bats going with the talent they have in their lineup after the big trade.  They busted out of their slump in a 7-4 victory over the Giants last night.  It should be more of the same today with these two starting pitchers going.

The Padres should feast on Jake Junis, who allowed 3 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings to the Dodgers last time out.  Junis has posted a 4.85 ERA in two career starts against the Padres.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in a 7-8 defeat in his lone start against them in 2022.

Sean Manaea is 6-6 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He has been crushed recently, going 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 19 runs, 14 earned, 4 homers and 27 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.  The Giants will get to him today.

The OVER is 25-11 in Manaea's last 36 starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Giants last six road games.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Mariners AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

This will be the 6th meeting between the Yankees and Mariners in the month of August already.  The OVER is 3-1-1 in the first five with combined scores of 9 runs or more in four of the five.  This 7-run total has been set too low today folks.

The Mariners have been at their best against left-handed starters this season.  Nestor Cortes has been very good for the Yankees, but I fully expect the Mariners to get to him.  Cortes allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-3 victory over the Mariners in his lone career start against Seattle.

The key here is that the Yankees are capable of covering this 7-run total on their own.  They have the best offense in baseball and score 5.3 runs per game.  Robbie Ray has been atrocious since the All-Star Break, going 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ray is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, allowing 9 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 10 innings.

The OVER is 21-8-1 in Yankees last 30 games overall.  The OVER is 7-0-2 in Mariners last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-2-2 in Mariners last nine games overall.  The OVER is 19-8 in Mariners last 27 games with a total set of 7 runs or fewer.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Yankees/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7

This will be the 5th meeting between the Yankees and Mariners in the month of August already. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the first four with combined scores of 9 runs or more in all four. This 7-run total has been set too low tonight folks.

Gerrit Cole has really struggled of late in going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 innings. One of those starts came against the Mariners last time out as he allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings.

Luis Castillo is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. He allowed 3 earned runs and one homer in 6 2/3 innings opposite Cole in that start on August 3rd. The Yankees will feast on him getting to see him twice within a week.

The OVER is 21-7-1 in Yankees last 29 games overall.  The OVER is 15-2-1 in Yankees last 18 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1-2 in Mariners last eight games overall. The OVER is 1907 in Mariners last 26 games with a total set of 7 runs or fewer. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +166

The Texas Rangers should not be nearly this big of underdogs to the Houston Astros with Martin Perez on the mound. The Astros have gone 3-4 in their last seven games overall while scoring a total of 4 runs in those four losses.

Perez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He is 9-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 10 road starts.

Amazingly, Perez is 9-5 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 16 career starts against Houston. He has faced the Astros twice this year while allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners in 16 innings. 

The Rangers are a perfect 10-0 in Perez's 10 road starts this season and improve to 11-0 tonight. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-135)

The New York Mets are 13-2 in their last 15 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more. Add another today against the lowly Cincinnati Reds, who are 44-64 on the season and have a ton of injuries on offense right now.

The Mets have a big advantage on the mound today with Carlos Carrasco. He has really turned it on of late in going 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last six starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 36 innings. Carrasco has never lost to the Reds, going 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

He'll be opposed by Mike Minor, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Minor is 1-8 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 11 starts this season whiel allowing 16 homers in 56 2/3 innings. He has posted a 4.56 ERA in 13 career starts against New York.

Minor's teams are 2-15 in his last 17 starts in the second half of the season and losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot. Carrasco's teams are 11-0 in his last 11 starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game and winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot. Take the Mets on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -150

Alek Manoah has been one of my favorite starters to back in all of baseball over the past two seasons as he continues to deliver.  Manoah is 12-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 21 starts this season to back up his incredible rookie campaign last year.

Manoah has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.672 WHIP in four career starts against them.  In his last three starts against the Orioles, he has allowed just one earned run and 10 base runners in 19 innings with 23 K's to boot.

Kyle Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.651 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Orioles.  One of those starts came against Toronto on June 13th when he allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings opposite Monoah in a 11-1 victory by the Blue Jays.  It will be more of the same today.

Baltimore is 3-17 in its last 20 home games following an upset win as an underdog over a division opponent.  Toronto is 6-1 in its last seven games following a loss.  The Blue Jays are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings, including 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Blue Jays Tuesday.

20* Yankees/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

This will be the second consecutive matchup between Logan Gilbert and Jameson Taillon.  The first resulted in an 8-6 victory for Seattle in an absolute slug fest.  The books have set the bar too low for the rematch today.

Taillon is 10-2 in spite of a 3.96 ERA this season.  He has been at his worst on the road with a 4.47 ERA in nine starts away from home.  Taillon allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of that 8-6 defeat on August 2nd in his last start.

Gilbert is getting too much respect from oddsmakers at 10-4 with a 3.16 ERA in 22 starts this season.  But Gilbert was rocked for 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in that 8-6 victory over the Yankees on August 2nd in his last start.

The OVER is 20-7-1 in Yankees last 28 games overall.  The OVER is 14-2-1 in Yankees last 17 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-1-2 in Mariners last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Padres/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The Padres and Dodgers have two of the most potent offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers were already loaded, and the Padres tried to match them by adding Soto and Bell at the deadline.  This 8.5-run total has been set too low for this highly anticipated Sunday night game.

Yu Darvish has been at his worst on the road this season with a 4.50 ERA in 10 starts away from home.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings to the Dodgers in his last start against them on July 2nd.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The OVER is 4-0-2 in Padres last six road games.  The OVER is 3-1-2 in Dodgers last six games overall.  The OVER is 30-14 in Anderson's last 44 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers should both get their bats going today against these two suspect starting pitchers.  The books have set this number too low today as these teams should easily combine for 9-plus runs to top this 8.5-run total.

Lucas Giolito has struggled all season for the White Sox.  He is 7-6 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 7.62 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in his last three.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 11-9 loss to the Rangers on June 11th in his lone start against them this season.

Spencer Howard is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Rangers.  He has already allowed 23 earned runs and 9 homers in 30 2/3 innings.  It won't get any better for him today against the White Sox.

The OVER is 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 19-8 in Giolito's last 27 road starts.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Twins OVER 8

Two of the most potent offenses in baseball continue their series tonight in Minnesota.  These teams combined for 12 runs in Game 1, 11 runs in Game 2 and 10 more runs in Game 3.  The Blue Jays are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, while the Twins are scoring 4.5 runs per game.

Kevin Gausman can be had as he allowed 3 earned runs to the Red Sox and 5 earned runs to the Cardinals in two of his last three starts.  But his season-long numbers have him getting too much respect from the books today.

Gausman is 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA in eight career starts against the Twins with the OVER going 6-2 in those eight starts.  He'll be opposed by Chris Archer, who hasn't been good for years.  Archer has a 4.05 ERA in 18 starts this season while averaging just 4.1 innings per start.  He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts coming in.

The OVER is 10-1 in Twins last 11 games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 27-10 in Blue Jays last 37 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 24-8-1 in Blue Jays last 33 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 7-1 in Twins last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Twins last 15 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Twins OVER 9

Two of the most potent offenses in baseball continue their series tonight in Minnesota.  These teams combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and another 11 runs in Game 2.  The Blue Jays are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, while the Twins are scoring 4.5 runs per game.

I expect the Blue Jays to do the heavy lifting on scoring runs in this one off of Dylan Bundy.  He is 6-5 with a 5.04 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA in his last three.

Bundy is 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA in his last two starts against Toronto, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Mitch White, who is 0-1 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in five road starts this season.

The OVER is 11-1 in Toronto's last 12 games when revenging a one-run loss.  The OVER is 9-1 in Twins last 10 games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -113

The Chicago White Sox are making a run at the AL Central and playing up to their potential in the second half of the season. Look for them to make easy work of the Texas Rangers tonight.

The White Sox have the advantage on the mound today with Michael Kopech, who has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 19 starts this season. Kopech is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.705 WHIP in two career starts against Texas.

Dane Dunning is 1-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three. Dunning allowed 5 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in one career start against Chicago.

The Rangers are 5-15 in Dunning's 20 starts this season. The White Sox are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 1-11 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 1-8 in its last nine home games. Take the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-125)

The Philadelphia Phillies are making a run at the postseason. They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall and won't let the Washington Nationals stand in their way. The Nationals are arguably the worst team in baseball now after trading away Soto and Bell.

The Phillies should feast on Pat Corbin, who is 4-15 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 1-8 with an 8.43 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in 10 road starts. Corbin has allowed 19 runs and 7 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies.

Ranger Suarez is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He is 7-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 18 stats this season, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three while pitching 16 shutout innings. Suarez is 1-0 with a 3.11 ERA in two career starts against Washington as well.

The Nationals are 0-11 in Corbin's 11 starts following a team loss this season and losing by 4.0 runs per game. Washington is 0-10 in Corbin's 10 starts vs. division opponents this season and losing by 4.8 runs per game. Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Chicago White Sox have a great chance to win the AL Central despite their slow start to the season. They are getting healthier and playing much better of late in going 7-4 in their last 11 games overall.

The White Sox should make easy work of the Texas Rangers tonight due to their big advantage on the mound. Nobody has been better than Dylan Cease over the past couple months. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in 12 consecutive starts, including zero earned runs eight times.

Cease has allowed 4 earned runs total in his last 12 starts to improve to 11-4 with a 2.01 ERA in 21 starts, including 6-1 with a 1.30 ERA in nine road starts. He is 2-0 with a 3.14 ERA in three career starts against Texas, which have all resulted in wins by two runs or more.

He'll be opposed by Glenn Otto, who is 4-7 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in seven home starts. The Rangers are 1-11 in Otto's last 12 starts in the 2nd half of the season and losing by 3.0 runs per game in this spot. Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Friday.

20* Raiders/Jaguars HOF Game No-Brainer on Jacksonville +2.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* White Sox/Rangers AL ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -125

The Chicago White Sox are as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's starting to show.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall and are going to make a push to win the AL Central here down the stretch.

The White Sox have the advantage on the mound over the Texas Rangers, who were just swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles last series.  Johnny Cueto has been a huge get for the White Sox this season.

Cueto is 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in six road starts.  He'll be opposed by lefty Cole Ragans, who will be making his major league debut for the Rangers.  It's a good story that Ragans is making the start as he has been through two Tommy John surgeries and a UCL tear.

But the White Sox feast on left-handed pitching and will get to Ragans today.  The Rangers are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  Texas is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the White Sox Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -118

The Toronto Blue Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 games overall and hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They should be bigger favorites over the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of this series today with ace Alek Manoah on the mound.

Manoah went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts as a rookie in 2021.  He has backed it up by going 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, sho is 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 15 starts this season, and 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA in eight home starts.  Gray has allowed 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts against the Blue Jays.

The Twins are 6-22 in their last 28 games following a win.  The Blue Jays are 31-15 in their last 46 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Blue Jays Thursday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -157

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be bigger favorites over the San Francisco Giants tonight.  The Dodgers have won six straight meetings with the Giants, who are now below .500 on the season and basically out of contention after going 3-10 in their last 13 games overall.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Julio Urias.  He is 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Urias owns the Giants, going 5-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 18 career starts against them.

In fact, Urias has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts against the Giants while going 4-1 with a 1.31 ERA in those seven starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 41 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Alex Cobb, who is 3-5 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Cobb allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on July 24th in a 4-7 loss in his lone career start against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are 20-3 in Urias' 23 starts in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 14-1 in Urias' 15 career road starts vs. an NL team with a .325 OBP or worse in the second half of the season.  Los Angeles is 9-1 in its last 10 road games.  The Giants are 0-9 in their last nine vs. NL West opponents.  Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-140)

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 during this stretch.  The face a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is 0-7 in their last seven games overall while scoring 2 runs or fewer in five of their last six.

The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound tonight that will have them winning by two runs or more.  Corbin Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.872 WHIP in nine road starts.  Burnes has never lost to the Pirates, going 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in six career starts against them.

He'll be opposed by Bryse Wilson, who is 1-5 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 10.43 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in four home starts.  Wilson is 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in four career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Brewers are 18-3 in Burnes' 21 stats in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Milwaukee is 5-0 in its last five games following an off day.  The Pirates are 2-12 in their last 14 games overall.  The Brewers are 42-17 in the last 59 meetings.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (-135)

The New York Mets are 6-0 in their last six games overall with five wins by two runs or more.  They will make it seven in a row tonight in blowout fashion in Game 1 of this series against the lowly Washington Nationals due to their big advantage on the mound.

Max Scherzer is 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Pat Corbin, who is 4-14 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.766 WHIP In 21 starts this season.  

Corbin has really struggled of late in going 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.624 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.  Corbin was rocked for 7 earned runs and 14 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-0 loss to the Mets in his last start against them on May 31st.

The Nationals are 0-10 in Corbin's 10 starts following a loss this season and losing by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  Washington is 2-15 in Corbin's last 17 starts as a home underdog and losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Scherzer's teams are 20-2 in his 22 career road starts vs. a NL team with a .315 OBP or worse in the second half of the season and winning by 2.8 runs per game.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Rockies UNDER 11.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies have combined for 8 and 9 runs the past two days.  It should be more of the same here with another UNDER with these two underrated starting pitchers going for both teams.

Tony Gonsolin is a NL Cy Young contender this season at 11-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in 18 starts.  Gonsolin has owned the Rockies, going 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in four career starts against them with the UNDER going 4-0 in those four contests.

German Marquez is 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last three starts.  Marquez has fared much better against the Dodgers than most, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 14 career starts against them with the UNDER going 8-5-1 in those 14 starts.

The UNDER is 60-35 in Rockies last 95 games with a total of 11 or higher.  The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Dodgers last 27 games with a total of 11 or higher.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-130)

The Chicago White Sox have a massive advantage on the mound today over the Oakland A's that should have them winning this game by two runs or more with ease.  That's why I'll save a ton of juice by backing them on the Run Line instead of laying the -280 on the money line.

Dylane Cease is a legit Cy Young contender this season for the White Sox.  He is 10-4 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 20 starts with a whopping 154 K's in 110 2/3 innings.  He has been untouchable in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA while firing 18 2/3 shutout innings with the White Sox winning by 11, 7 and 3 runs in those three starts.

Adam Oller is getting a chance for the lowly A's, who have one of the worst records in baseball.  It has not gone well for Oller at all as he is 1-3 with a 9.75 ERA and 1.876 WHIP in six starts while allowing 26 earned runs and 9 homers in 24 innings.  The White Sox will certainly hang a big number on him today and get him out of there early.

The White Sox are 13-1 in Cease's 14 career starts vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or fewer runs per game on the season and winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The A's are 2-16 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better this season and losing by 2.1 runs per game.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -110

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated to bounce back against one of the worst teams in baseball Sunday.  They blew a 3-run lead to the lowly Washington Nationals on Saturday and lost by one.  They can't afford another loss to this team Sunday.

Andre Pallante will be good enough to hold the Nationals in check.  But this is more of a fade of Washington's Josiah Gray than anything.  He is 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in nine home starts this season while allowing a whopping 34 earned runs and 14 homers in 45 2/3 innings.

The Nationals are 1-12 in Gray's last 13 starts as a home underdog of +100 or higher and losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Washington is 22-57 in its last 79 home games.  The Nationals are 14-43 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +106

The Los Angeles Angels are 15-41 in their last 56 games overall and have been struggling for two consecutive months.  They have no business being favored over the Texas Rangers tonight.  Los Angels is 7-21 in its last 28 home games.  Texas is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and that dominance will continue after a 7-2 victory in Game 1 of this series last night.

Glenn Otto has done his best work on the road this season with a 3.57 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in seven starts away from home.  He'll be opposed by Chase Silseth, who is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in his last three while allowing 11 earned runs and four homers in 10 innings.  Los Angeles is without Mike Trout and struggling to score runs without him.  Roll with the Rangers Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -137

The St. Louis Cardinals have an important stretch right now with six straight games against the Nationals and Cubs that they need to take advantage of.  They are off to a good start with a 6-2 victory over the Nationals last night as their two best hitters in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado returned to the lineup for this series.

Look for the Cardinals to make easy work of the Nationals again in Game 2 tonight.  Dakota Hudson is the better starter int his game at 6-6 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Erick Fedde, who is 5-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in 19 starts.  Fedde is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

St. Louis is 12-2 vs. a starting pitcher that averages less than 5 innings per start this season.  The Cardinals are 32-11 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 16-4 in Hudson's 20 career starts with a money line of +100 to -150.  Washington is 8-30 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Nationals are 2-14 in home games after scoring 3 runs or less in consecutive games this season.  Washington is 21-57 in its last 78 home games.  The Nationals are 13-43 in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago White Sox -159

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting upset as -190 favorites yesterday by the lowly Oakland A's.  Look for them to bounce back due to their big advantage on the mound tonight.

Johnny Cueto is 4-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has proven to be an excellent addition to Chicago's rotation.  He has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four career starts against them.

He'll be opposed by Paul Blackburn, who has really come back down to reality of late.  Blackburn is 0-3 with a 13.19 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 21 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.  Blackburn has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA in two career starts against them.

The White Sox are 39-14 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +100

The Texas Rangers have the advantage on the mound over the Los Angeles Angels and should not be underdogs tonight as a result.  I'll gladly back Perez and the Rangers at this underdog value after pulling the 2-0 upset against the Mike Trout-less Angels last night.

Perez is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball.  He is 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in nine road starts.  Perez is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in his last four starts against the Angels, allowing just 6 earned runs and one homer in 20 1/3 innings.

Patrick Sandoval is very fortunate to have a 3.43 ERA despite his 1.500 WHIP In 16 starts this season.  He has allowed 1.5 base runners per inning and should have a higher ERA as a result.  He is one of the most overrated starters in baseball this season.

The Rangers are a perfect 9-0 in Perez's nine road starts this season.  The Angels are 15-40 in their last 55 games overall and have been struggling for two consecutive months.  Los Angels is 7-20 in its last 27 home games.  Texas is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Rangers Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+106)

The Chicago White Sox have too much talent to be .500 on the season, which is where they currently sit.  But they are still right in the thick of the AL Central race and looking to take advantage of this series against the lowly Oakland A's.

I'll gladly back the White Sox in Game 1 on the Run Line to win in a blowout.  Lance Lynn is coming off one of his best starts of the season, pitching 6 shutout innings in a 5-4 victory over the Cleveland Guardians.  Lynn is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in eight career starts against the A's as well.

James Kaprielian is 1-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 4.87 ERA in eight road starts.  Kaprielian lasted just four innings in a 3-6 loss to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

Lynn's teams are 22-5 in his 27 career July home starts and winning by 1.6 runs per game on average.  Lynn's teams are a perfect 16-0 in his 16 career home starts vs. a terrible team that wins less than 38% of their games and winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  Take the White Sox on the Run Line Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-105)

The St. Louis Cardinals get their two best hitters back in the lineup in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt tonight after both sat out the Toronto series due to not having the COVID vaccine.  Look for the Cardinals to roll in Game 1 of this series over the lowly Washington Nationals (34-66).

The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Miles Mikolas, who has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Mikolas has allowed 5 earned runs in 18 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals for a 2.50 ERA.  He'll be opposed by Anibal Sanchez, who will be making his 1st start of the season for the Nationals and will be on a pitch count.

Washington is 21-56 in its last 77 home games.  The Nationals are 16-47 in their last 63 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 13-42 in its last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tigers/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a streaky team this season.  They are streaking right now in going 9-2 in their last 11 games overall while scoring 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games and averaging 7.3 runs per game during this stretch.  The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five games overall and are heating up at the plate.

Both teams should get their bats going tonight against these two starting pitcher.  Yusei Kikuchi is the worst starter in Toronto's rotation.  He is 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.569 WHIP in 16 starts this season.

Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Alexander, who is 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA and 1.784 WHIP In four starts this season.  Both starters are making their return from the IL and will be knocked out of this game early.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in Tigers last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 22-7 in Blue Jays last 29 home games.  The OVER is 39-18 in Blue Jays last 57 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Mets OVER 7

We have the best offense in baseball in the New York Yankees up against one of the best offenses in the National League in the New York Mets in this Subway series.  The Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs per game on the season while the Mets are scoring 4.7 runs per game.  These teams should easily combine to top this 7-run total tonight.

Domingo German will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Yankees.  The first was a disaster on July 21st as he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings to the Astros.  The Mets will hang a big number on him and the Yankees today.

Max Scherzer remains one of the best starters in baseball, but the Yankees will get to him today as well.  Scherzer hasn't had much success against the Yankees of late, allowing 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against them.

The OVER is 14-3 in Yankees last 17 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in 14 of those 17 games.  The OVER is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 11 runs or more in seven of those 10 meetings.  There is also expected to be 11 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citi Field tonight to help aid us in cashing this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +117

The Boston Red Sox are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall while scoring just 2.9 runs per game in the process.  They are without their two best hitters in Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, who are both on the IL.  The Red Sox have no business being favored over the Cleveland Guardians tonight with these injuries.

Cal Quantrill has been solid this season for the Guardians at 7-5 with a 3.75 ERA in 18 starts, including 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three.  Quantrill has posted a 4.00 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox as well.  He'll be able to shut down this short-handed, struggling Boston lineup.

Nathan Eovaldi has no business being a favorite, either.  He just recently returned from the IL and his two starts since returning have been a disaster.  Eovaldi has allowed 12 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts.  He is also 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in five career starts against Cleveland.

Boston is 0-6 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less in three consecutive games this season.  Roll with the Guardians Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a streaky team this season.  They are streaking right now in going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 11 games and averaging 7.8 runs per game during this stretch.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the St. Louis Cardinals with Kevin Gausman over Adam Wainwright.  That's especially the case when you consider the Cardinals will be without their two best hitters in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado due to the COVID protocols in Toronto.  So the advantage Toronto will have at the plate tonight is massive.

Gausman is 7-7 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts this season for the Blue Jays.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.  Wainwright allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start to Cincinnati.  He is 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA in two career starts against Toronto.

Toronto is 10-1 in its last 11 games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game and winning by 3.6 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight interleague games.  St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine road games.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +135

The Boston Red Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall while scoring just 2.9 runs per game in the process.  They are without their two best hitters in Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, who are both on the IL, and they may not have J.D. Martinez again tonight either.

The Red Sox have no business being this big of favorites over the Cleveland Guardians tonight with these injuries, but especially with Josh Winckowski on the mound.  Winckowski is 3-4 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in four home starts.

I know this will be a bullpen game for the Guardians, but that's why they are such big underdogs.  It's an overreaction.  The Guardians have one of the better bullpens in baseball with a 3.66 ERA and 1.212 WHIP on the season.  Compare that to the Red Sox, who have a 4.25 bullpen ERA.

Cleveland is 27-15 (+16.1 Units) after scoring one run or less over the last two seasons.  Boston is 33-41 (-12.2 Units) vs. right-handed starters this season.  The Red Sox are 0-7 in their last seven during Game 2 of a series.  The Guardians are 4-0 in their last four during Game 2 of a series.  Roll with the Guardians Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Mets OVER 8

We have the best offense in baseball in the New York Yankees up against one of the best offenses in the National League in the New York Mets in this Subway series.  The Yankees are scoring 5.4 runs per game on the season while the Mets are scoring 4.7 runs per game.  These teams should easily combine to top this 8-run total tonight.

Jordan Montgomery has never beaten the Mets, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.896 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 24 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.  Taijaun Walker is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings in his last start against them.

The OVER is 13-3 in Yankees last 17 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in 13 of those 16 games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings with combined scores of 11 runs or more in seven of those nine meetings.  There is expected to be 12 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citi Field tonight to help aid us in cashing this OVER as well.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-105)

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a streaky team this season.  They are streaking right now in going 8-1 in their last nine games overall while scoring 4 runs or more in nine of their last 10 games and averaging 7.6 runs per game during this stretch.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the St. Louis Cardinals with Jose Berrios over Andre Pallante.  That's especially the case when you consider the Cardinals will be without their two best hitters in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado due to the COVID protocols in Toronto.

Berrios is 5-0 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  Pallante is 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in three road starts.

The Blue Jays are 9-0 in Berrios' nine home starts this season with six wins by two runs or more.  Toronto is 9-1 in its last 10 games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game and winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in their last seven games following an off day.  The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last seven games following an off day.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Phillies OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight with this 8-run total between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.  Two left-handed starters go tonight, and both offenses thrive against southpaws.  The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, while the Phillies are scoring 4.7 runs per game.

Lefty Max Fried has been solid for the Braves this season and is one of the best starters in the National League.  But the Phillies have gotten to him as Fried has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Ranger Suarez has a 4.07 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 16 starts this season, and he is 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight home starts.  Suarez is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves, who are more than capable of scoring 8 runs or more on their own.  The've scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games overall.

The OVER is 6-0 in Braves last six games overall.  The Braves and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last nine meetings.  There will be nearly 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citizens Bank Park to help aid us in cashing this OVER as well tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -142

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a streaky team this season.  They are streaking right now in going 7-1 in their last eight games overall while scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last nine games and averaging 7.6 runs per game during this stretch.

Ross Stripling takes the ball for the Blue Jays today.  He is 4-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in six road starts.  Stripling has held the Red Sox to just 3 earned runs in 10 innings in two starts against them this season.

He'll be opposed by Brayan Bello, who is 0-1 with a 10.12 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 innings.  He will get rocked by this red hot Blue Jays lineup.

The Blue Jays are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.  The Red Sox are 1-8 in their last nine games overall while scoring just 2.7 runs per game in the process.  They are without their two best hitters in Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, who are both on the IL, and they may not have J.D. Martinez either.  Boston is 0-7 in its last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Blue Jays Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8

The OVER is 12-2 in Yankees last 14 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in 12 of those 14 games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Orioles last four games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in all four.  Baltimore has now scored 4 runs or more in seven consecutive games.

Gerrit Cole has been hittable away from home this season with a 4.25 ERA in his nine road starts.  Cole allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings in his last start against the Orioles on May 23rd as the Yankees were upset 6-4 as -295 favorites.

But the Yankees could cover this OVER on their own as they tee off on Jordan Lyles, who is 6-8 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Lyles has allowed 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.  Roll with the OVER In this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -135

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a streaky team this season.  They are streaking right now in going 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring 4 runs or more in seven of their last eight games and averaging 8.0 runs per game during this stretch.

Alek Manoah is one of my favorite starters to back in all of baseball and we are getting him cheap today.  Manoah is 10-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He owns the Red Sox, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He may not have to face both Trevor Story and J.D. Martinez, who both sat out last night.

Kutter Crawford will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Red Sox.  He is averaging just 5.0 innings per start this season while allowing 8 earned runs in 20 innings.  Crawford has a 5.00 ERA in his two home starts.  The Blue Jays will get him out of there early tonight.

The Blue Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The Red Sox are 1-7 in their last eight games overall while scoring just 2.9 runs per game in the process.  Boston is 0-6 in its last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago White Sox -108 (Game 1)

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this double-header Saturday after getting upset by the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.  I like their chances of bouncing back due to their advantage on the mound.

Johnny Cueto has proven to be an excellent addition to this Chicago staff this season and has clearly turned back the clock.  He is 4-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three.

Cueto has never lost to the Guardians, going 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Triston McKenzie, who has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-2 with a 9.41 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in six career starts against them.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners +106

The Seattle Mariners have won 14 consecutive games and are 22-3 in their last 25 games overall to play themselves back into contention.  I like their chances of making it 15 in a row against a Houston Astros team that is in a big letdown spot following a sweep of their double-header against the New York Yankees Thursday.

The Mariners have the advantage on the mound tonight with Marco Gonzalez, who has posted a 3.50 ERA in 18 starts this season, including a 3.21 ERA in nine home starts.  Gonzalez has posted a 2.10 ERA in his last five starts against the Astros, allowing just 8 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings.

Jose Urquidy has a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts this season and a 5.20 ERA in 10 road starts.  Urquidy just cannot figure out the Mariners, going 1-3 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.879 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 13 innings in his last three starts against Seattle.  Bet the Mariners Friday.

15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +130

The San Francisco Giants will bounce back from their loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday.  They are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and have a big advantage on the mound today over the Dodgers, which is why they should not be underdogs in Game 2.

Logan Webb is 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Few starters have had as much success against the Dodgers as Webb.  He is 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.925 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Amazingly, Webb has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight career starts against the Dodgers.  He has yielded just 2 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who is 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 34-13 in Webb's last 47 starts.  Roll with the Giants Friday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles +143

The Baltimore Orioles are 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with 10 wins as underdogs to get to 46-46 on the season and back into contention for the playoffs.  Look for them to pick up where they left off here Friday against a tired New York Yankees team that is coming off a double-header against the Houston Astros Thursday.

Tyler Wells is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-5 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in seven home starts.  Wells has a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees, allowing just 4 earned runs in 14 innings, all of which have come this season.

Jameson Taillon is overrated due to his 10-2 record in spite of a 3.86 ERA.  Taillon has been at his worst on the road with a 4.33 ERA in eight starts away from home.  He has really struggled of late with a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four road games.  The Orioles are 8-0 in their last eight home games.  Take the Orioles Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Astros OVER 8 (Game 1)

The books have set the bar too low today with this 8-run total between two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall while the Astros are scoring 4.4 runs per game overall this season.

Jordan Montgomery is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for his 3.26 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He has yet to face the Astros this season and I don't expect it to go well for him this afternoon.

He'll be opposed by Christian Javier, who has also come back down to reality of late by allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 2/3 innings while losing his last two starts against the Angels and Royals.

The OVER is 10-1 in Yankees last 11 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in 10 of those games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Yankees last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Astros last six games following an off day.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 of this double-header Thursday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -122

The Seattle Mariners have won 13 consecutive games and are 21-3 in their last 24 games overall to play themselves back into contention.  They will make it 14 in a row today due to their big advantage on the mound over the Texas Rangers.

Chris Flexen has been solid this season with a 3.84 ERA in 17 starts, a 3.79 ERA in 10 road starts and a 1.93 ERA in his last three outings.  Flexen has never lost to the Rangers, going 4-0 (5-0 money line) with a 2.53 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Glenn Otto has had a rough go of it this season for the Rangers.  He is 4-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 12 starts.  Otto has really struggled in Arlington, going 2-2 with an 8.07 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in six home starts this season.

Seattle is 27-8 in the last 35 meetings, including 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Texas.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* White Sox/Twins AL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -120

The Chicago White Sox are 4-1 in their last five games overall and one win shy of going into the All-Star Break with a .500 record.  They will be highly motivated to get it done, especially playing the Minnesota Twins, a team they are trailing by 4 games within the division.

The White Sox will get the job done today due to their massive advantage on the mound.  Dylan Cease is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.239 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA in eight road starts.  

Cease has a whopping 142 K's in 97 2/3 innings and is much better than Chris Archer, who can't go deep into games, which means the White Sox will get to Minnesota's suspect bullpen early in this one.  Roll with the White Sox Sunday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books have set the bar way too low today with this 7.5-run total between two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall while the Red Sox are scoring 4.7 runs per game overall this season.

Chris Sale will be making just his 2nd start back from the IL and will be on a pitch count.  The Yankees will get to him, just has they have in his recent starts against them.  Sale is 0-4 with a 9.90 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees, allowing 22 earned runs in 20 innings.

No question Gerrit Cole is one of the best starters in baseball.  But the Red Sox have had his number recently.  Cole is 1-1 with an 8.25 ERA in his last three starts against Boston, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts against the Red Sox, including 5 earned runs in 6 innings on July 7th.

The OVER is 9-1 in Yankees last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 15, 9, 17, 11, 17 and 11 runs.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar way too low tonight with this 8-run total between two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall while the Red Sox are scoring 4.7 runs per game overall this season.

Nick Pivetta has come back down to earth of late for the Red Sox.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts.  One of those starts came against the Yankees last time out on July 10th when he allowed 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of an 11-6 victory over the Yankees.

Jameson Taillon was opposite Pivetta in that game.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings.  Taillon has now allowed 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Pivetta is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in four career starts against New York.

The OVER is 8-1 in Yankees last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 9, 17, 11, 17 and 11 runs.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -135

The Seattle Mariners have won 12 consecutive games and are 20-3 in their last 23 games overall to play themselves back into contention.  They will make it 13 in a row today due to their big advantage on the mound over the Texas Rangers.

Logan Gilbert is one of the best starters in the American League.  He is 10-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 10 road starts.  Gilbert has never lost to the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Spencer Howard has posted an 8.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three starts this season for the Rangers, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.  Howard has a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in two career starts against the Mariners as well.

Seattle is 26-8 in the last 34 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Texas.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Twins OVER 9

Both the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins are hot at the plate right now.  The White Sox have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last 10 games overall.

Two struggling starters square off today against these hot lineups.  Lance Lynn is 1-2 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts, one of which came against the Twins on July 6 when he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 9-8 victory.

Dylane Bundy is 5-4 with a 4.68 ERA in 15 starts this season.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-5 victory over the Texas Rangers last time out.  The OVER is 9-4-2 in Bundy's 15 starts this season.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 9 runs or more in six of those seven contests.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +116

The Baltimore Orioles are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall with nine wins as underdogs and highly motivated to keep this winning streak alive.  They are above .500 and looking to make a playoff run in the 2nd half of the season.

I think the Orioles have a big rest advantage and a big advantage on the mound today, thus they shouldn't be underdogs here.  The Orioles had yesterday off while the Rays were completing a four-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox Thursday.  Not only are the Rays the more tired team, but they are also in a letdown spot after sweeping Boston.

Tyler Wells is one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 17 starts for the Orioles.  He'll be opposed by Luis Patino, who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Rays.   Patino allowed 4 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Baltimore last season.  Roll with the Orioles Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-155)

The Kansas City Royals are missing a ton of players due to being unvaccinated for this series against the Toronto Blue Jays.  They managed to pull the upset as +315 underdogs in Game 1, but they will get blown out in Game 2 against a motivated Blue Jays team with their ace on the mound.

Alex Manoah is one of my favorite starters to back in all of baseball.  He has proven that his rookie season was no fluke last year by going 9-4 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in eight home starts.

Manoah has owned the Royals, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against them while pitching 13 shutout innings.  He'll be opposed by Zack Greinke, who is 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  He has allowed 9 homers and 29 earned runs in 35 innings on the road this year.

Toronto is 44-18 in its last 62 home meetings with Kansas City.  Instead of laying -350 or more on the money line, we'll take the 200 cents of discount and back them to win by two runs or more.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Yankees OVER 8

The books have set the bar way too low tonight with this 8-run total between two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Red Sox are scoring 4.7 runs per game overall and 5.0 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Nathan Eovaldi has good numbers for the Red Sox this season, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Eovaldi hasn't pitched since June 8th and will certainly be on a pitch count in his first start back from the IL.

Jordan Montgomery also has good numbers this season, which is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.  Montgomery will be facing the Red Sox for a 2nd consecutive start, which is a big advantage for this Boston lineup having just seen him on July 9th.

The OVER is 7-1 in Yankees last eight games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 17, 11, 17 and 11 runs.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +147

The Minnesota Twins are too big of favorites over the Chicago White Sox today.  The Twins have allowed at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall while losing four of them.  Sonny Gray isn't this much better than Johnny Cueto, if better at all.

Gray is 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts this season, but he's averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  He has struggled of late, allowing 8 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore and Texas.  Gray allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the White Sox.

Cueto is 3-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts this season while averaging 6.3 innings per start.  Cueto has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five starts away from home.  He has never lost to the Twins, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Cueto's teams are 6-0 in his six starts as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the past two seasons.  Take the White Sox Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +141

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored a total of 23 runs in going 3-1 in their last four games.  They would be 4-0 if not for a blown 6-0 lead yesterday.  But that will just add to their motivation today, and I like their chances of pulling the upset over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Daniel Hudson has been at his best at home this season.  He is 4-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in eight home starts.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who is 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  Anderson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

Anderson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 (0-3 money line) with a 7.90 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in three career starts against them.  St. Louis is a very profitable 160-155 (+32 Units) as a home underdog since 1997.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +118

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first three games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep in Game 4 tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as underdogs.

Kutter Crawford has been impressive in his three starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.214 WHIP while allowing just 5 earned runs in 14 innings with 16 K's.  He'll be opposed by Drew Rasmussen, who is getting too much respect from the books for a guy that only averages 4.8 innings per start.

Boston is 16-4 in its last 20 games after stranding 3 or fewer runners on base in its previous game.  Tampa Bay is 8-18 after having won three of its last four games this season.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Rangers OVER 7.5

The Oakland A's and Texas Rangers have gone off in this series. They combined for 18 runs in Game 1 and 21 runs in Game 2. This 7.5-run total is set too low today for Game 3.

The Rangers have been hitting the cover off the ball of late, scoring 5 runs or more in five consecutive games and seven of their last eight games overall. The A's have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last eight games overall.

Jon Gray is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two career starts against Oakland, allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 1/3 innings. Paul Blackburn is 0-1 with a 14.29 ERA and 2.646 WHIP in two career starts against the Rangers, allowing 9 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last five home games. The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last five games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins -116

The Minnesota Twins come in highly motivated for a victory today against the Milwaukee Brewers. They have lost four of their last five, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers. Look for the Twins to bounce back today due to their big advantage on the mound.

Joe Ryan has been the ace of Minnesota's staff this season. He is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in seven home starts.

He'll be opposed by Aaron Ashby, who is 2-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.510 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Ashby has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

Minnesota is a perfect 7-0 after losing four of its last five games this season and winning by 3.2 runs per game in this spot. The Twins are 4-1 in the last five meetings. Take the Twins Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +105 (Game 1)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won eight straight and are 16-3 in their last 19 games overall.  They will stay hot against the Washington Nationals, who are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall to fall to 30-58 on the season.

Chris Flexen is 5-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 16 starts this season to hold his own.  He'll be opposed by Josiah Gray, who is 7-5 with a 4.14 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Gray has been at his worst at home, going 2-5 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Nationals are 1-12 in Gray's last 13 home starts as an underdog.  Washington is 0-10 in Gray's last 10 home starts in night games.  Seattle is 14-2 in its last 16 road games following four or more consecutive home games.  The Mariners are 11-1 in Flexen's last 12 starts vs. teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Roll with the Mariners in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* DBacks/Giants NL West BAILOUT on Arizona +145

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the advantage on the mound over the San Francisco Giants tonight and should not be underdogs as a result. Plus, this is a struggling Giants team that is just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall while getting held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games overall.

Merrill Kelly is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. Kelly is 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in seven road starts. Kelly has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Giants as well.

Alex Cobb has been one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues and continues to be as a -160 favorite today. He is 3-3 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Cobb is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona, both of which have come in the past two seasons.

San Francisco is a woeful 4-12 (-13.3 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado Rockies +131

The Colorado Rockies are showing great value as home underdogs to the San Diego Padres tonight. This is a struggling Padres lineup that has been held to 2 runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games overall and cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.

The Rockies will go with Jose Urena, who held the Dodgers to one earned run in 6 2/3 innings in his first and only start this season on June 6th. That's no small feat. Urena has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in five career starts against the Padres.

Sean Manaea is 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last three starts. Manaea is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

The Rockies are 36-16 in the last 52 home meetings. Colorado is 5-0 in the last five meetings overall. The Padres are 2-7 in their last nine road games. The Rockies are 7-2 in the last nine home games. Colorado is hitting .282 and scoring 5.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Roll with the Rockies Monday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Rays OVER 7.5

The Boston Red Sox have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall. They have been hot at the plate for weeks. The Tampa Bay Rays have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.

Brayan Bello made his MLB debut against the Rays on July 6th. He allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 innings of a 7-1 defeat. He will be facing the Rays again here, which is a huge advantage for Tampa Bay hitters.

Matt Wisler has posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in his eight seasons in the big leagues. The Red Sox will get to him today.

The OVER is 4-0 in Red Sox last four games overall. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Rays last six home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -110

The Cleveland Guardians put an end to their five-game losing streak with an emphatic 13-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals yesterday.  Look for them to make it two in a row due to their advantage on the mound today.

Zach Plesac has gone at least 6 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.  He has posted a 2.14 ERA in those seven starts while allowing just 10 earned runs in 42 innings.

Plesac has never lost to the Royals, going 6-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Zack Greinke, who is 2-5 with a 4.85 ERA in 13 starts this season.

The Guardians are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings, including 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Kansas City. The Royals are 18-38 in their last 56 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +100

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games of this series to their hated rivals in the Padres.  Look for them to bounce back in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Yu Darvish has solid numbers this season, but he cannot figure out the Giants.  Darvish is 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA in eight career starts against them.  Most of the damage has been done in his most recent starts against them.  Indeed, Darvish is 0-2 with a 17.18 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 11 innings.

Carlos Rodon is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 7-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 16 starts this season with a whopping 112 K's in 91 innings and only 4 homers allowed.  Rodon held the Padres to 2 runs in 6 innings on May 21st in his line career start against them.  Take the Giants Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120)

The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 28-8 in their last 36 games overall with 23 wins by two runs or more.  The Washington Nationals or 1-8 in their last nine games overall with six losses by two runs or more.  Atlanta won 12-2 in Game 1 of this series, and it should be more of the same today due to their advantage on the mound.

Kyle Wright has proven to be the ace of this Atlanta staff.  Wright is 9-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Pat Corbin, who is 4-10 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.669 WHIP in 17 starts, including 1-5 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.896 WHIP in seven road starts.

Corbin just cannot beat the Braves.  He is 0-7 with a 7.25 ERA in his last seven starts against them while allowing 29 earned runs in 36 innings.  He has allowed 17 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them as well.  

The Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Atlanta is 39-19 in its last 58 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 9-2 in its last 11 home games vs. a southpaw.  The Braves are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Phillies/Cardinals NL Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis -109

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory today after losing four of their last five games overall, including Game 1 of this series to Philadelphia.  Look for them to bounce back in Game 2 today due to their advantage on the mound.

Dakota Hudson has done his best work at home this season.  He is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in seven starts at Busch Stadium this year.  Hudson owns the Phillies, going 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA In two career starts against them.

Kyle Gibson has been at his worst on the road this season.  He is 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  Gibson just faced the Cardinals on July 2nd in his last start and allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 4 innings.  He is now 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP In two career starts against them.

The Cardinals are 16-3 in Hudson's last 19 starts with a money line of +100 to -150.  St. Louis is 23-7 in Hudson's 30 career home starts.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants +132

The San Diego Padres cannot be this big of a favorite today.  They are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games overall.  They won't get much off of San Francisco starter Sam Long, who has a 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 10 innings as a starter this season.

While the Padres are cold as ice offensively, the main reason for fading them today is fading Blake Snell.  He is 0-5 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in eight starts this season, and the Padres are 0-8 (-9.6 Units) in his eight starts.  The Tampa Bay Rays certainly knew something when they let him walk.

The Giants are 15-9 vs. left-handed starters this season and scoring 5.0 runs per game against them.  The Padres are only scoring 3.6 runs per game at home this season.  San Francisco is 10-1 in road games after a game where the bullpen didn't allow a single earned run this season.  Bet the Giants Friday.

20* AL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tigers/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox today.  There are expected to be 19 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.  Not to mention, both of these starting pitchers are terrible.

Tarik Skubal is 0-3 with an 9.00 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings.  Skubal is 2-2 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.9-9 WHIP in five career starts against the White Sox with the OVER going 4-1.  Chicago has feasted on left-handed pitching over the past couple seasons.

Lucas Giolito is 5-4 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 14 starts this season while allowing 15 homers in 75 1/3 innings.  Giolito is 5-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 15 career starts against Detroit.  He will be up against a red hot Detroit lineup that has scored 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.

The OVER is 6-0 in White Sox last six games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Rangers OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers are both hot at the plate right now.  The Twins have scored 22 runs in their last three games overall, while the Rangers have scored at least 6 runs in five of their last nine games overall.  These teams should easily combine for more than 8 runs to top this total tonight.

Sonny Gray has good numbers for the Twins this season, but he is only averaging 5.0 innings per start.  That means the Rangers are likely to get into their bullpen early.  The Twins have a terrible bullpen that has blown 15 saves already this season.

Jon Gray has solid numbers for the Rangers as well with a 3.96 ERA In 14 starts.  But he's also averaging just 5.5 innings per start, and he is backed by a Texas bullpen that has blown 13 saves this season.  

There have been 8 or more combined runs in seven of Gray's last eight starts against the Rangers.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in Twins last 26 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

Instead of laying -270 or so on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line today, I'll gladly back them on the Run Line instead and save upwards of -150 for them to win by two runs or more.  They have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning in blowout fashion.

Tony Gonsolin is 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in 15 starts this season and among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young.  Gonsolin is 6-0 with a 0.88 ERA and 0.707 WHIP in seven home starts.

He'll be opposed by Mark Leiter Jr., who is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.822 WHIP In three starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.  He is now 5-9 with a 5.39 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 143 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  The Dodgers will tee off on him tonight.

The Dodgers are 23-3 in their last 26 home games after a combined score of 4 runs or less and winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Cubs are 3-16 when revenging a home loss to an opponent by 6 runs or more and losing by 4.1 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.