Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -6.5

The Oregon Ducks should roll right over the USC Trojans to a blowout home victory tonight. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Oregon is a contender in the Pac-12, while USC is a bottom feeder. The final score of this game should reflect that Thursday.

Oregon is 13-5 this season, including 9-2 at home where they are only allowing 62.9 points/game and 41.4 percent shooting. The Ducks are off to a solid 4-2 conference mark, which is really impressive considering they've played four of their first six Pac-12 games on the road. They beat Washington State, Arizona State and Arizona away from home.

USC is just 5-13 on the season, including 2-5 on the road. The Trojans weakness is an offense that produces a mere 53.6 points/game on 39.7 percent shooting. USC has opened 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in conference play this season. Four of those five losses came by eight points or more, including a 47-66 home loss to UCLA last time out.

Oregon is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=63% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. USC is 0-7 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls over the last 2 seasons. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. These four trends make for a 26-0 system backing the Ducks. Roll with Oregon Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +4.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value tonight as a home underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are getting too much respect here as they should not be laying points on the road without their best player. Zach Randolph remains out with a with a knee injury.

It's like night and day for Memphis home and away. The Grizzlies are an impressive 5-2 at home, but they are only 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road. Memphis is only scoring 80.6 points/game and allowing 93.8 points/game while getting outscored by 13.2 points/game away from home.

This is a great revenge spot for the Hornets. New Orleans lost at Memphis 99-108 as a 10.5-point underdog just five days ago, so there's no question that that loss is fresh in their minds. They'll be trying extra hard tonight to get some payback. Plus, this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days, so the Hornets come in rested.

The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Worse yet, the Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. This is an ideal spot to fade Memphis. Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should be laying a bigger number tonight against the Denver Nuggets. Somehow, these 76ers are still going under the radar despite being the most profitable team in the league at the betting window. I'll continue to ride them until the value is no longer there.

Philly is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS this season, with all three losses coming on the road. The 76ers are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 102.5 points/game and allowing 79.5 points/game while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 23.0 points/game at home.

Denver is a mediocre 3-3 on the road this season. Their road wins have come against Dallas, New Orleans and Milwaukee, so nothing special. The Nuggets are a tired team right now as this will be their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Philly had yesterday off and this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Philly. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -3

The Indiana Hoosers are way undervalued heading into tonight due to their first set of consecutive losses this season. Indiana is still one of the best teams in the country, but back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Ohio State has the betting public off of them right now. This is the perfect time to jump on board.

Nebraska is nowhere near the team that Indiana is. The Huskers are just 9-8 on the season, and not even home-court advantage will save them tonight. This is a Nebraska team that was blown out at home by Wisconsin 40-64 and by Michigan State 55-68. I like Indiana's chances of winning this game by double-digits as well, though we only need a 4-point victory to get the cash.

The Hoosiers have clearly turned things around this season under head coach Tom Crean. Indiana is 15-3 SU and 8-4 ATS on the year, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points/game. Crean will have his troops highly motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from consecutive losses. There's no question the Hoosiers will be putting their best foot forward in Lincoln.

The Huskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Nebraska is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. The Huskers are only scoring 61.1 points/game this season and they stand no chance of hanging with a Hoosiers team that is putting up 80.8 points/game. Roll with Indiana Wednesday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +11.5

This is the perfect spot to fade the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State is in a huge letdown spot coupled with a look-ahead situation. It just doesn't get any better than this in terms of finding situations to fade a team that is primed for a poor performance.

The Seminoles are coming off a huge 90-57 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday. It was the most shocking score of the season, but that win moved FSU to just 11-6 on the season. The Seminoles won't be able to match the intensity they brought to the UNC game tonight against the Maryland Terrapins.

Plus, FSU has Duke coming up next. They will play the Blue Devils on the road this Saturday, and they will certainly be looking ahead to that game. All signs point toward not only a Maryland cover tonight, but a great chance for an outright victory for the Terrapins.

Maryland has finally gotten healthy, and they've been on a roll ever since. The Terrapins are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming at NC State 74-79 as an 11.5-point underdog. The Terrapins are now 12-4 on the season under underrated first-year head coach Mark Turgeon.

Maryland has won five of their last six meetings with Florida State, going a perfect 6-0 ATS since 2007. The Seminoles are 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite. FSU is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers today, who knew that the betting public would be all over the Seminoles after their huge win over UNC. That forced them to set the number way too high tonight. Bet Maryland Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9.5

It's amazing that there is even a line up for this game considering Derrick Rose (toe) is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. The good news is I like Phoenix whether Rose plays or not. The great news is that if he doesn't play, then getting the Suns at 9.5 is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Rose did not play yesterday in a 86-102 loss at Memphis. This is a very tired Chicago team right now, and even if Rose plays, the rest of their players are going to be worn down. This will be Chicago's 7th game in 9 days, and their 11th game in 15 days. It's clearly their toughest stretch of the season.

Phoenix comes in on solid rest as this will be only their 2nd game in four days. The big reason they are showing such great value is due to their 4-game losing streak. They have failed to cover four straight against the spread, but now is the time to jump on board. You won't find Phoenix showing much better value the rest of the season than they are tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +12.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are showing great value as a big road underdog to the Oklahoma Sooners Tuesday. Tech has played an extremely brutal stretch of games to open their conference schedule, so they will certainly be battle-tested heading into this contest with Oklahoma.

This might be their easiest Big 12 game yet. The Red Raiders lost at Oklahoma State, at home to Baylor and Kansas, and then at Texas A&M in their last four games, respectively. They were a double-digit underdog in all four contests, but they only lost once by more than 13 points.

Oklahoma has opened 1-3 in conference play. While the Sooners appear to be better than the Red Raiders on paper, this team should not be favored by double-digits tonight. These are two very evenly matched teams with the only advantage the Sooners having is home court. That's not worth 12.5 points.

Texas Tech has won three of their last four meetings with Oklahoma, going 3-1 ATS in the process. The Red Raiders are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12 opponents. Time and time again this team is undervalued in conference play. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 foes. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Lakers NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a small home favorite against the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers want this game more than any other game they will play during the regular season. Los Angeles was swept in the second round of the playoffs last year by the Mavericks, and there's no question they want revenge.

While Dallas is riding a five-game winning streak, they have beating up on some very suspect opponents. Their five wins have come against the Hornets, Pistons, Celtics, Bucks and Kings. All five of those teams have losing records and they are a combined 18-42 on the season.

The Lakers are the real deal this year and they are starting to really click under new head coach Mike Brown. L.A. has won five of their last six games overall, and they've been virtually unstoppable at home. The Lakers are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game.

The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Look for Kobe Bryant to go off for 40-plus points for a fifth straight game tonight while leading his team to a win and cover. Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* Baylor/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baylor +7

The Baylor Bears should not be this big of an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks, if even a dog at all Monday. The clear value in this game is with the Bears, who are one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. But for whatever reason, this team is not getting the respect it deserves.

Baylor (17-0, 4-0 Big 12) is one of three undefeated teams in Division I entering Monday's games. The Bears want to put an end to Kansas' run of seven straight Big 12 regular season titles. They want to make a statement tonight and show the country that they are for real.

Baylor's size has posed plenty of trouble for opponents, with three of the last four teams the Bears have faced shooting below 40 percent. Baylor ranks 11th in the nation in field-goal defense (37.2 percent). Their length should help halt a Kansas team that had to rally from a 12-point deficit in the second half to beat Iowa State at home on Saturday.

The road team has absolutely been dominant in this series. The road team is a perfect 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last six visits to Allen Fieldhouse.

Kansas is 15-30 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-7.0. Take Baylor Monday.

15* NBA Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps the most underrated team in the league this season. This squad just keeps crushing the opposition, especially at home. The 76ers are so deep that they will really benefit from this lockout-shortened season all year.

Philly is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season, making backers a fortune at the betting window. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home, scoring 104.2 points/game while allowing 79.0 points/game for an average margin of victory over a ridiculous 25.2 points/game. The 76ers have seven players averaging double-digit points.

The Milwaukee Bucks are just 4-7 this season. Milwaukee has yet to win on the road, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from home. The Bucks are only scoring 87.0 points/game on 39.9 percent shooting on the road. They are allowing 96.9 points/game, so the Bucks are getting outscored by an average of 9.9 points/game away from home.

Philly is 8-0 ATS in home games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Philly. Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* Giants/Packers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Green Bay -7.5

The Green Bay Packers have been unstoppable at home all season. I know the Giants are playing well here of late, but going into Lambeau Field and coming away with a victory is a tall task. I think New York's luck runs out Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champs, and the best team in the league.

The Packers went 15-1 this season despite resting numerous starters, including Aaron Rodgers, in a 45-41 victory over the Detroit Lions in their season finale. Green Bay went 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 40.1 points/game while allowing 21.4 points/game. They outscored their opponents by a whopping 18.7 points/game at home this year.

Despite going 5-3 on the road, the Giants were actually outscored 26.0 to 26.9 away from home. As you can see, they gave up nearly 27.0 points/game on the road, and they also allowed a ridiculous 396 yards/game. This defense has played better in recent weeks, but they will have no answer for Rodgers and the best scoring offense in the NFL.

While the Packers are ranked 32nd in the league in total defense, it's clear that that means nothing. Green Bay scores so quickly on offense that the other team simply gets more opportunities with the ball, thus they are going to rack up more yardage. It's important to note that the Packers had a league-high 31 interceptions this season and were +24 in turnovers, which was the second-best mark in the NFL. This clearly makes up for the yardage they gave up defensively.

Aaron Rodgers has simply sliced up this New York defense each of the last two times he has faced the Giants. Rodgers threw for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns in their 45-17 home victory over the Giants at the end of last season. He threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in their 38-35 road victory over New York earlier this season. The Packers racked up a combined 964 yards (482/game) in those two games.

The Packers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Green Bay is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. Roll with Green Bay Sunday.

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +9

The Houston Texans simply have not gotten the respect the deserve since TJ Yates took over as starting quarterback. You have to remember that this was a run-first team even with Matt Schaub under center to start the season. They should have been a bigger favorite last week when I backed them as a 3-point favorite in a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati.

The Texans certainly should not be getting this many points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Houston has the better offense and the better defense statistically. The Texans are 2nd in the league in total defense (285.7 yards/game) while the Ravens are 3rd (288.9 yards/game). Houston is 13th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 yards/game) while the Ravens are 15th (338.7 yards/game).

Houston has the perfect formula to win in the playoffs. You always have a chance if you have a running game and a stout defense. I know the regular season has been home to several passing records this year, but when it comes to the playoffs, you need a running game and a defense to be successful. Houston has what it takes to pull off this upset Sunday.

This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

Having already played the Ravens once, the Texans will be much more prepared this time around. The Texans were also playing without Andre Johnson in that 14-29 loss to Baltimore, but he is back and healthy now. Johnson led the Texans with five receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati last week. He makes a huge difference when he's on the field.

The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. These five trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing Houston. Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +11

The New Orleans Hornets should not be catching double-digits against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is not at full strength, thus they shouldn't be this heavily favored. The Grizzlies are still playing without their best player in Zach Randolph, who makes a huge difference for this team.

This play falls into a system that is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Because the Hornets have hit a rough patch recently, they are now showing the kind of value that's worth backing. Roll with New Orleans Saturday.

20* Broncos/Patriots NFL Saturday Night BAILOUT on Denver +14

The Denver Broncos have an excellent chance to stay with the New England Patriots Sunday and cover this large number. They already played the Patriots tough earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Denver is coming off a huge 29-23 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. They looked like they could beat anyone last Sunday, compiling 447 total yards including 316 passing and three total touchdowns from Tim Tebow. That was against the league's top-ranked defense coming in.

The Broncos had no problem moving the ball the first time they played New England, but they simply beat themselves with turnovers. Denver totaled 393 yards with 252 rushing and 141 passing in their 23-41 loss to New England on 12/18, but they lost three fumbles while the Patriots did not turn the ball over once. If they can at least play the turnover battle even Saturday, they have a chance to beat the Patriots.

This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season.

New England is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. These last three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Broncos. Bet Denver Saturday.

15* Saints/49ers NFL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4

The San Francisco 49ers should not be an underdog at home to the New Orleans Saints Saturday. New Orleans is way overvalued right now after they way they finished the season. But the fact of the matter is that the Saints aren't the same team on the road that they are at home. Public perception on New Orleans right now is at an all-time high, which is why the 49ers are showing such great value.

The Saints are just 5-3 on the road this season with three of their wins coming by five points or less. Their two blowout road wins came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings. If the Saints do manage to win Sunday, it won't be by more than a field goal, which would give us the cover.

San Francisco has the type of team it takes to beat the Saints. You need a ball-control offense and a tremendous defense that can get Drew Brees and company off the field on 3rd downs. The Saints have converted 57.1 percent of their 3rd downs this season, but the 49ers only allow 35.2 percent 3rd down conversions on defense.

The 49ers were tremendous at home this year. San Francisco posted a 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS mark on home soil. Not only did they beat opponents at home, they absolutely destroyed them. The 49ers average 27.6 points/game and gave up only 10.9 points/game while outscoring foes by a whopping 16.7 points/game. I expect the 49ers to stay unbeaten against the spread at home with an outright victory. Take San Francisco Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have opened the season 12-4 and the Cyclones will be giving the Kansas Jayhawks a run for their money on the road Saturday.

Iowa State has shown what they are capable of in Big 12 play. They knocked off Texas 77-71 at home before going on the road and crushing Texas A&M 74-50. ISU would lose to Missouri 69-76 at home last time out, but that's not a bad loss considering I believe the Tigers are the best team in the Big 12, hands down.

Kansas is a quality team this season, but this is clearly a team in rebuilding mode after losing the Morris Twins to graduation. The Jayhawks are a respectable 13-3, but they just don't have that "wow" factor that they do most year. This team is certainly beatable.

The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Kansas is 15-29 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12. Take Iowa State Saturday.

20* Heat/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3.5

The Miami Heat are not about to lose three in a row. After back-to-back overtime losses, I have Miami bouncing back in a big way tonight in Denver. Look for the Heat to be more motivated for this game than any other so for this season. This team is very dangerous when they play with a chip on their shoulder.

Denver is not a good defensive team, and they have no chance containing Lebron, Wade and Bosh in this one. The Heat lead the league in scoring at 106.6 points/game while connecting on a ridiculous 48.8 percent of their shots. This is simply not a good match-up for the Nuggets.

This play falls into a system that is 87-41 (68%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites (MIAMI) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=43% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet Miami Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are laying double-digits, they are overvalued. The Lakers are a good team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but this is a team notorious for playing down to their competition.

The Lakers are a respectable 8-4 this season, but five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They aren't built for blowing teams out, and they rely way too much on Kobe Bryant to be able to win in blowouts consistently.

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league this year. The Cavs are off to a solid 5-5 start this season, and they are coming off a huge 101-90 road victory over the Phoenix Suns last night. What's most impressive about their 5-5 start is that seven of their first 10 games have come on the road.

The Cavs want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year. Cleveland lost in L.A. 57-112 in a game that symbolized the low point of their season. They would eventually get payback with a 104-99 home victory over the Lakers a little more than a month later, but this team wants real revenge by going into L.A. and coming away with a victory tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 194

The Spurs and Blazers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly by setting the bar way too high in this one. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as all signs points toward a low-scoring affair.

Just looking at Portland's road numbers, it's easy to see why I'm siding with the UNDER tonight. The Blazers are scoring 89.3 points/game on the road and allowing 96.0 points/game for an average combined score of 185.3 points/game. Scoring won't get any easier for Portland tonight as they're up against a San Antonio team that gives up just 91.3 points/game at home.

The biggest reason for this play is recent head-to-head games between these teams. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 194 or less points in 10 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have no business being a favorite at New Orleans tonight. While Minnesota has received a lot of hype from Ricky Rubio and company, they simply have not lived up to expectations. At the same time, the Hornets are a better team than they get credit for even with the loss of Chris Paul.

Minnesota is just 3-7 this season, which includes road losses at Toronto and Milwaukee. This is a team that was supposed to be improved with the additions or Rubio and Derrick Williams among others, but they simply have not clicked in the early going. It's going to take some time for this team to gel.

New Orleans is also 3-7, but they have played an absolute brutal schedule. Their last five games have come against Denver twice, Philly, Dallas and Oklahoma City. This team is battle-tested and will be looking forward to a "break" tonight with the lowly Timberwolves coming to town.

The Timberwolves are 5-24 ATS in their last 29 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +2.5

The Boston Celtics should not be catching points at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls. Boston is going to be very hungry tonight after back-to-back home losses to the Pacers and Mavericks to drop them to below .500 on the season.

While Derrick Rose is expected to play for Chicago tonight, it won't matter. Rose missed last game with a toe injury and he'll be playing through pain tonight if he goes. Richard Hamilton doubtful with a groin injury and C.J. Watson is out with an ankle injury. The Bulls are certainly vulnerable right now.

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this rivalry between the Bulls and Celtics. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series, and Boston has won six of their last seven at home against Chicago. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings as well.

The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Boston is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. You certainly want to back this team after a rough stretch and also when they are an underdog. Take the Celtics Friday.

20* Magic/Warriors NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 187.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar far too low tonight in the Orlando vs. Golden State game. These are two well-rested teams and each will want to push the pace tonight because of it. Look for a high-scoring game that exceeds 200 combined points tonight.

Orlando will be playing just their 2nd games in four days. They have gone OVER the total in their last two. Orlando beat Sacramento 104-97 on the road on 1/8 followed by a 107-104 road victory over Portland last night. Look for their hot shooting to continue tonight against a soft Warriors defense.

Golden State will be playing just their 2nd game in five days. They are coming off a 111-106 overtime victory over the Miami Heat just two nights ago. They put up 96 points in regulation and 15 more in overtime despite shooting just 40.0 percent from the floor. I look for their shooting numbers to improve tonight against Orlando.

The Warriors and Magic have combined to score 194 or more points in each of their last eight meetings. This makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. While these are two new teams this season, there's no question the value in this game is with the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats showing solid value as a 5-point home favorite over the Oregon State Beavers. This is a very generous line from oddsmakers, and one that I cannot wait to take advantage of.

Arizona was a very young team coming into the season with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Now that we are nearly halfway through the season, the Wildcats are a lot more experienced and should be a force in the Pac-12 down the stretch.

The Wildcats are 8-1 at home this season, scoring 71.0 points/game and allowing 57.4 points/game while outscoring opponents by 13.6 points/game. They are off to a solid 2-1 start in conference play.

Both teams are 11-5 right now, but Arizona has played far and away the tougher schedule. That's why they are showing such good value tonight because this team is better than their record. The Beavers have shown their true colors in Pac-12 action, opening 1-3 within the conference.

The Beavers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The home team has won three straight in this series, with the last two being won by Arizona by 9 and 11 points, respectively. Take the Wildcats Thursday.

15* Knicks/Grizzlies NBA on TNT BEST BET on UNDER 194

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies. Of course, their natural habit is to set the number too high in Knicks games considering this team hasn't played defense for years now. However, that's not the case this season.

New York is 7-3 to the UNDER in all games, including 4-1 to the UNDER in road games. The Knicks are scoring just 95.3 points/game this season while allowing 93.7 points/game for an average combined score of 189.0 points/game. They are only allowing 91.8 points/game on the road this year as well.

Memphis is scoring 91.0 points/game this season an d allowing 95.1 points/game for an average combined score of 186.1 points/game. As you can see, that number is well below the posted total tonight, and the same goes for New York. Just looking at both team's season averages it's easy to see that the value is with the UNDER in this contest.

New York is 9-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games following a division game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Heat/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203

The Miami Heat have brought a pace and space philosophy into the new season under head coach Erik Spoelstra. He went to Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to get some advice on this pace and space style. As a result, the Heat are now playing the most up-tempo style in the league to take advantage of their superior athleticism.

Miami leads the league in scoring at 108.1 points/game, which is 6.4 points more than second place. However, the Heat have the fourth-worst scoring defense at 98.0 points/game. So as you can see, Miami is combining with their opponents to average 206.1 points/game this season. They have gone 7-3 to the OVER in all games.

The Clippers have a very good team this season with the additions they made in the offseason. L.A. is 8th in the league in scoring at 99.3 points/game, but they are just 25th in scoring defense at 97.6 points/game. The Clippers are a team that can keep pace with the Heat, and I look for a high-scoring game because of it.

The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The New Orleans Hornets are showing solid value tonight as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. New Orleans has a very good chance to be a profitable team this year at the pay window because the betting public does not want to back them after trading away Chris Paul. I still believe this team has plenty of talent overall to compete this season.

Oklahoma City is way overvalued tonight due to their 9-2 start to the season. This will be OKC's 5th game in 6 days, which is a tough stretch for any team. While the Thunder have nine wins this year, five of those victories have come by 5 points or less. This is a good team, but luck has clearly been on their side in the early going.

New Orleans is coming off their best win of the season, a 94-81 road victory over the Denver Nuggets. With a night off in between games, this team will return home playing with a lot of confidence tonight. They will be the fresher team, and I can certainly see the Thunder overlooking the Hornets just like the Nuggets did two nights ago.

The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The home team has won four of the last five in this series. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -4

The Missouri Tigers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a mere 4-point favorite over the Iowa State Cyclones. This line is too much of an overreaction from what happened in the last game for both Missouri and Iowa State.

If the Tigers were still unbeaten, they'd be a much heavier favorite tonight. Instead, Missouri has dropped to 14-1 after their 59-75 road loss at Kansas State last time out. I believe this loss could certainly be good for them, and I fully expect the Tigers to respond in a big way tonight.

Iowa State is overvalued right now due to their current 7-game winning streak, which includes a 2-0 start in the Big 12 with wins over Texas and Texas A&M. Both the Longhorns and Aggies are down this season, but ISU went into College Station and came away with a victory last time out, which has caught the eyes of the better public. This team is simply not as good as their current perception, and they cannot live up to these expectations.

This play falls into a system that is 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an favorite or pick (MISSOURI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season. The Tigers are still outscoring teams by a whopping 22.5 points/game this season, and they get right back to their dominant ways tonight. Take Missouri Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Jazz UNDER 188

I believe oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between Cleveland and Utah Tuesday. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what should be a very low-scoring game in Utah tonight.

Just looking at their home/away numbers, it's easy to see why the value is with the UNDER in this one. Cleveland is scoring 89.8 points/game on the road while allowing 92.8 points/game for an average combined score of 182.6 points/game. Utah is scoring 93.7 points/game at home and allowing 86.7 points/game for an average combined score of 180.4 points/game.

Cleveland is 3-0 to the UNDER in their last 3 games with combined scores of 169, 185 and 176 points. Utah is 3-1 to the UNDER in thier last 4 games with combined scores of 184, 158, 179 and 175 points. The UNDER is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Jazz last 9 games following a ATS win. These two trends make for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa/Creighton UNDER 140.5

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight on the college hardwood. Northern Iowa and Creighton are two very good defensive teams, and they will not come close to exceeding this inflated total tonight.

Northern Iowa runs a slow-down game with a ton of half-court sets on offense. They also feature the best defense in the MVC. UNI is scoring 68.7 points/game this season and allowing 60.2 points/game for an average combined score of 128.9 points/game. As you can see, that average is well below this posted total tonight.

While Creighton has been very good offensively this year, the Blue Jays have yet to play a team that gets after it defensively quite like Northern Iowa. Creighton is also allowing a respectable 69.3 points/game this year while playing some very good offensive teams.

Perhaps the most telling stat heading into this one is that the UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Creighton and Northern Iowa have combined to score 117, 118, 137, 122 and 112 points in their last 5 meetings, respectively. That's an average of 121.2 points/game, which is roughly 19 points below this posted total tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. OKC has had Memphis' number dating back to last season, and I don't see that changing here Tuesday. The Thunder have won four of their last five meetings with the Grizzlies.

A big reason I expect OKC to win in a blowout tonight is the fact that Memphis will be without their best player. Zach Randolph has missed the past four games with a knee injury and he's expected to be out until late February. This team was already thin in the frontcourt with Darrell Arthur out for the season.

The Thunder are off to a fast 8-2 start and I don't see them slowing down. This is the best team in the West in my opinion and I have them going all the way to the NBA Finals. The Thunder won their first meeting of the season with Memphis 98-95 on the road despite Russell Westbrook having the worst shooting games of his career. He missed all 13 field goal attempts and finished with four points.

The Thunder are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 Tuesday games. OKC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Memphis. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Oklahoma City Tuesday.

20* 'Bama/LSU BCS Championship BEST BET on Alabama +1

The Alabama Crimson Tide were fortunate to get a shot at revenge against LSU. I believe they are going to make the most of it by dominating the Tigers in the rematch. Alabama was clearly the better team in their first meeting, but found a way to lose by beating themselves. They won't make the same mistakes again.

Alabama outgained LSU 295-239 in their first meetings. The Crimson Tide really lost the game on special teams as field goal kicker Cade Foster missed four times in their 6-9 overtime loss. The Tide also committed a turnover at the goal line as their receiver was about to go into the end zone for a touchdown before having the ball stripped away.

The Crimson Tide simply have the better offense and the better defense coming into this one. Alabama averages 433.4 total yards/game behind a balanced attack that averages 220 on the ground and 214 through the air. The Tide are also No. 1 in the country in total defense (191.2 yards/game). LSU averages 375.3 yards/game offensively while giving up 252.1 yards/game defensively.

The Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends make for a 17-1 (94%) system backing the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +6

The New Jersey Nets should not be catching six points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. New Jersey is showing their best value of the season with this spread. They are a bit undervalued right now due to their slow 2-7 start.

A big reason for the Nets' struggles in the early going has been injuries. But this team has started to get healthier of late with both PG Deron Williams and F Kris Humphries recently returning from injuries. These are their two best players, so having them on the floor is obviously very important.

Atlanta is off to a 6-3 start, so they are a bit overvalued right now. The Hawks have also covered four of their last five, which has given them some extra respect from oddsmakers. Atlanta is going to be without starting F Marvin Williams in this game due to an ankle injury. It's clear that the value in this game is with the big home dog.

The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. New Jersey is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following two or more consecutive wins. Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing too good of value to pass up Monday as a double-digit underdog to the New York Knicks once again. New York was favored by 11.5 in their first meeting of the season with the Bobcats on 1/04, and they actually lost that game outright at home 118-110.

While the Knicks will want revenge, they should not be laying double-digits. New York is too inconsistent of a team to be laying double-digits against almost anyone. The Knicks have started 4-4, which includes a 1-2 home mark. They are clearly overrated in the eyes of oddsmakers and the betting public considering New York is just 2-6 ATS in all games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. These four trends make for a 20-0 system backing Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Blazers UNDER 194.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers. Oddsmakers have inflated the number here. Portland is a strong defensive team that likes to play the half-court game. They will control the tempo at home tonight in a slowed-down contest.

The Cavs aren't an offensive juggernaut by any means, and they get after it defensively, too. Cleveland is scoring 97.1 points and allowing 93.3 points for an average combined score of 190.4 points/game. The Blazers are scoring 99.1 points and allowing 95.4 points for an average combined score of 194.5 points/game. Given both team's averages, you can see why there is some value with this UNDER tonight.

Cleveland is 34-17 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Arkansas State/NIU GoDaddy Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +1.5

Northern Illinois and Arkansas State each won their conference titles in the MAC and Sun Belt, respectively. While both are coming in off these huge achievements, I believe NIU is the stronger team considering they played in the stronger conference. The MAC was the real deal this season, while the Sun Belt was certainly down.

I'll back NIU behind quarterback Chandler Harnish, who is one of the most underrated and under-appreciated players in college football. Harnish completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,942 yards with 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. While those passing numbers are impressive, his rushing numbers were even more mind-boggling. Harnish led the Huskies with 1,382 rushing yards and 11 scores this year.

Don't forget about running back Jasmin Hopkins, who rushed for 939 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Huskies are also loaded at receiver with a ton of speedsters that can turn a 1-yard catch into an 80-yard touchdown on any given play. This team is so explosive, and Arkansas State is going to have a hard time keeping up with them.

The Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Arkansas State is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. These last two trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois Sunday.

15* Steelers/Broncos NFL Sunday BEST BET on Denver +9

The Denver Broncos are showing awesome value as a home underdog Sunday. Everyone is counting Tim Tebow and the Broncos out, and every time they do that, Tebow seems to respond. This is the perfect situation to back Tebow and the Broncos with a very inflated line Sunday.

The reason I believe this line is inflated is because the Steelers simply haven't been that good on the road. Sure, they are 5-3 away from home, but only one of those wins came by more than 7 points. Pitt was simply fortunate to escape with close victories away from home all season. If they win Sunday, it won't be by more than 7 points, either.

Pittsburgh is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Giants UNDER 47.5

This game has defensive battle written all over it. Both defenses are hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. The Falcons forced four turnovers and only allowed 294 total yards to the Bucs in their season finale. The Giants have allowed exactly 14 points in each of their last two games against the Jets and Cowboys.

Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 13-3 to the UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The UNDER is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. the UNDER is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors are showing very good value Saturday as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Utah Jazz. All that you need to see is how poorly Utah has played on the road this season to know that this is a solid bet tonight.

Utah is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Not only are they losing away from home, they are getting absolutely slaughtered. The Jazz are scoring 86.7 points and giving up 105.7 points on the road, getting outscoring by an average of 19.0 points/game!

The Jazz are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Golden State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games, while Utah is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Take the Warriors Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +11

The Detroit Lions are fully capable of pulling off the upset over the New Orleans Saints Saturday provided they don't beat themselves. That's precisely what they did in their first meeting with the Saints in a game that was much closer than the 31-17 final score would indicate.

Detroit actually outgained New Orleans 466-438 in the Superdome on December 4th, but they simplpy beat themselves with untimely penalties. The Lions committed 11 penalties for 107 yards, while the Saints were only flagged three times for 30 yards. Matthew Stafford has his way with their defense, throwing for 408 yards in the loss.

I have all the confidence in the world that the Lions are going to be able to move the ball at will once again, and this time they won't shoot themselves in the foot. This is one of the most dangerous teams in the league heading into the playoffs with the potential to beat anyone if they just play their game and don't beat themselves.

This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

The Lions are 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Bet Detroit Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State/George Mason OVER 124

This one is about as easy as they come on the college hardwood. When you look at both team's season averages, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have missed their mark on this total set.

Georgia State scores 70.3 points/game and gives up 57.4 points/game for an average combined score of 127.7 points/game. Geore Mason scores 71.1 points/game and gives up 62.9 points/game for an average combined score of 134.0 points/game.

Given these averages, there's no way oddsmakers should have set this total less than 130. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Bengals/Texans NFL Saturday BEST BET on Houston -3

The Houston Texans are showing awesome value as just a 3-point home favorite Saturday. I did get this line in early, and I do recommend buying down to -3 just to be safe. I also want you to know that I still would take the Texans at -4 as well, which is the updated line, if you don't want to pay the extra juice to buy it down to -3.

Houston is getting no love from oddsmakers because they stumbled into the playoffs, but so did Cincinnati. The Texans didn't have a whole lot to play for down the stretch after clinching the division, so it's easy to see why they struggled a bit the last few weeks. I fully expect this team to kick it into overdrive and be ready come Saturday.

While the Texans are one of the most underrated teams coming into the playoffs, the Bengals are one of the most overrated. There's no way this team should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. Cincinnati breezed to a 6-2 start thanks to playing one of the easiest schedules in the league, but their true colors showed in the second half as they went just 3-5 the rest of the way.

Houston won their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road by a final of 20-19 on December 11th. The Texans clearly outplayed the Bengals in that game as they gained 412 total yards to Cincinnati's 285. Quarterback T.J. Yates, who will be starting for the Texans Sunday, threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Texans to victory that day.

The Texans are a perfect 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bengals. These four trends make for a 18-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Texans Saturday.

15* SMU/Pittsburgh Compass Bowl ANNIHILATOR on SMU +4

The Pittsburgh Panthers should not be favored in the Compass Bowl Saturday. This is a program in transition, and their players have had a hard time staying focused in practices leading up to this game with all of the distractions.

While June Jones' name surfaced in the media about leaving SMU to coach elsewhere, he has elected to stay with the program. Meanwhile, Pitt coach Todd Graham has left to take the Arizona State job. Adding to the bitterness was Graham's decision to inform his players by text message that he was leaving after one year on the job.

Pitt just hasn't been the same team since leading rusher Ray Graham went out with a knee injury. Graham had rushed for 964 yards and nine touchdowns through their first eight games, so his loss was a big one. They have had to rely a lot more on quarterback Tino Sunseri, who just isn't capable of carrying their team. Take SMU Saturday.

25* 2011-12 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas State +8.5

Kansas State represents my strongest play for the entire 2011-12 bowl season Friday. This team has been underrated all year, and once again the Wildcats are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. This line has certainly been inflated.

The Wildcats were picked to finish eighth in the conference this season, but head coach Bill Snyder led them to their most wins since an 11-4 finish in 2003 and was the runaway pick for Big 12 coach of the year. K-State went 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in all game this season. Their 75% winning percentage against the spread just shows how underrated they have been all year.

Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein should have been a Heisman Trophy finalist with the numbers he put up this season. Klein led the team with 1,099 rushing yards and his 26 rushing touchdowns were the second-most in the FBS. He also threw for 1,745 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. John Hubert is a solid running back who rushed for 933 yards and three scores.

The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. These three trends make for a 17-1 system backing the Wildcats tonight. Bet Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso/Detroit UNDER 150

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in the Valparaiso vs. Detroit college basketball game. Just looking at the season averages between these teams, it's easy to see that this 150 number is too much.

Valparaiso averages 74.7 points/game while giving up 70.2 points/game for an average combined score of 144.9 points/game. Detroit averages 73.0 points/game while giving up 68.7 points/game for an average combined score of 141.7 points/game. I'll take my chances that this one stays UNDER the number given these averages.

This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DETROIT) - in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (<=32%). Detroit shoots 26.9% from distance while Valpo shoots 31.8% from beyond the arc. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight. I'm going to side with the home favorite Charlotte Bobcats because of it. The Bobcats come in with a huge advantage in the rest department, and they are going to be giving better effort than the Hawks for four quarters.

Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in 5 days tonight. Not to mention they are coming off a three-overtime thriller against the Miami Heat last night, which they lost at home. This team will be deflated and their best effort won't be good enough as they'll be running on fumes after such a brutal stretch.

Charlotte comes in with confidence after putting an end to a four-game losing streak by beating the New York Knicks 118-110 on the road as an 11-point dog two nights ago. While that four-game losing streak is concerning, two of those games came against the Miami Heat while another was against Orlando.

The Bobcats are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Bobcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Hawks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings with Atlanta, including 9-2 (82%) ATS in their last 11 home meetings. Take the Bobcats Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Eastern Washington -2.5

Eastern Washington is a small-conference school that I've been following very closely all season. While they are just 7-7 this season, the Eagles have been very impressive considering the difficulty of their schedule.

Eastern Washington has played 10 road games compared to just 4 home games. Their opponent, Weber State, has played eight home games compared to 4 road games and one neutral site contest. Four of the Eagles' road games have come against Gonzaga, Oregon, UCLA and St. Mary's. They played all four teams tough, and nearly beat both Gonzaga and Oregon.

The Eagles are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents 84.0 to 61.2 or by an average of 22.8 points/game. Weber State is just 1-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored 68.2 to 82.5 or by an average of 14.3 points/game. Now you can kind of see why the Eagles are showing so much value at home tonight as a small favorite.

Weber State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Wildcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Weber State is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Sky. These three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the Eagles tonight. Bet Eastern Washington Thursday.

20* Heat/Hawks NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 188.5

The Miami Heat have changed their philosophy this season, and I'm going to continue to ride their OVERS early because of it. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra visited Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to gather in as much information as he could this offseason. His goal was to learn about the pace and space philosophy, which he has installed in Miami.

The Heat are looking to fast break every chance they get to maximize the athleticism on this team, which is clearly the best in the NBA. They have been scoring at will in the early going. Miami is averaging 108.3 points/game this season while allowing 95.7 points/game, which is an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. That number is well above tonight's posted total.

Miami and Atlanta combined for 192 points in their first meeting. Atlanta won that game 100-92 as Miami wasn't able to execute their pace and space offense. Look for the Heat to execute a lot better tonight while also pushing the tempo more than they did in the first meeting.

The OVER is 12-4-1 in Miami's last 17 games as a favorite. The OVER is 11-5 in Miami's last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida/Villanova OVER 125.5

South Florida and Villanova should combine to go OVER tonight's posted total with ease. Oddsmakers have set the bar well too low Thursday, and we're going to capitalize. Both teams should score 65-plus in this one.

Villanova is scoring 72.9 points/game while allowing 68.3 points/game this season for an average combined score of 141.2 points/game. They are putting up 79.2 points/game at home this year. Playing at home, Villanova will control the pace, which be be more up-tempo than South Florida likes to run.

These teams met twice last season with the OVER going 2-0. Villanova won the first meeting 83-71 for 154 combined points. USF would have their revenge in the Big East Tournament, winning 70-69 for 139 combined points. I see no way these teams don't combined for 130-plus tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 vs. Big East opponents. Villanova is 4-1 to the OVER in their last 5 home games. South Florida is 4-1 to the OVER in their last 5 vs. Big East foes. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/Clemson Orange Bowl No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia +3.5

While Clemson is the favorite in this game, I actually expect West Virginia to run away with this game. WVU has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season, flying under the radar to win the Big East.

Clemson has been overrated since their fast 7-0 start. The Tigers have gone on to lose three of their last five overall, including 21 and 24-point losses to South Carolina and NC State, respectively. WVU comes in hot having won three straight to earn a share of the Big East title. Each of the Mountaineers' last four games have been decided by three points or less.

WVU ranks excellent in both major statistical categories on each side of the ball. The Mountaineers are 16th in the country in total offense (459.6 yards/game) and 27th in total defense (340.3 yards/game). The difference in this game will be defense, where Clemson ranks just 59th in yards allowed (379.4/game). WVU will get more stops than the Tigers will.

The Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.5. WVU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East opponents. Clemson is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite. Bet West Virginia in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +10

East Carolina should not be catching double-digits tonight against Southern Miss. USM is clearly off to an impressive start this year, but as a result they are overvalued. I believe the Pirates are every bit as good as the Golden Eagles.

ECU is 9-4 in all games thsi season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points/game. What gives the Pirates a chance to upset almost any team is their ability to get after it defensively. ECU only yields 60.2 points/game and 38.7 percent shooting. They have only lost once this season by more than five points.

The Pirates are 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. ECU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. The Pirates are in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. ECU is 11-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet East Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 198

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat should have no problem combining to score 198-plus tonight. Indiana has played a bunch of awful offensive teams in the early going, which has led to them playing in more low-scoring games than they normally would. Now, they face one of the best offensive teams in the league in the Heat.

Miami is scoring 106.7 points/game overall while allowing 97.8 points/game for an average combined score of 204.5 points/game. The Heat are scoring 112.0 points/game at home and allowing 99.0 points/game at home for an average combined score of 211.0 points/game. Given their season averages, there is certainly value with this OVER tonight.

The Heat are 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. NBA Southeast. The OVER is 9-2-1 in Heat last 12 home games. the OVER is 8-2 in Heat last 10 games following a loss. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11.5

Off a 101-115 loss at Cleveland last night, the betting public is off of the Bobcats and oddsmakers have been forced to set an inflated line here tonight. I like Charlotte to bounce back tonight with a much better effort at New York, which is a team that is always overvalued.

The Knicks are off to a 2-3 start this season, including a 85-90 home loss to the Toronto Raptors last time out. New York has been taking bad shots all year, which is why they are shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor and averaging a mere 93.0 points/game. There's no way they should be favored by double-digits over Charlotte.

New York has not beaten Charlotte by more than 4 points in any of their last 12 meetings. That makes for a perfect 12-0 ATS system pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* Marquette/Georgetown ESPNU Big East BEST BET on Georgetown -4

The Georgetown Hoyas are showing awesome value as just a 4-point home favorite over the Marquette Golden Eagles Wednesday. Georgetown is somehow going under the radar this year, but this is clearly one of the best teams in the country. They prove that tonight with a conference win over a quality opponent.

Georgetown is 12-1 this season with their only loss coming to Kansas on a neutral court. What proves that this team is underrated in the eyes of the oddsmakers and the betting public is the fact that the Hoyas are 7-1 ATS in all lined games this year. They have beaten great teams in Louisville, Memphis and Alabama all on the road.

The Hoyas are 8-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by an average of 24.3 points/game. Marquette lost their last road game 59-67 at LSU. They also lost two games later at home to Vandberbilt by a final of 57-74. This Eagles team is way overrated right now. That's incdicated by the fact that Marquette is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

This play falls into a system that is 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GEORGETOWN) - excellent defensive team - allowing <=57 points/game on the season, on Wednesday games. The Hoyas are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Take Georgetown Wednesday.

20* Michigan/VA Tech Sugar Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the play in the Sugar Bowl as a mere 2.5-point favorite. Even at -3, this team is a lock. Michigan deserves to be here after a two-loss season in the Big Ten, but VA Tech has no business being here after losing to Clemson twice in the ACC.

The ACC is clearly one of the worst conferences in the country. It's Big Ten vs. ACC and I'm siding with the Big Ten in this one. Michigan has a dynamic quarterback in Denard Robsinson, and they have one of the must underrated head coaches in the land in Brady Hoke.

The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Michigan is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take Michigan Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -12.5

The Missouri Tigers are arguably the best team in the country. They are 13-0 this season and on a mission. They are the best team in college basketball that nobody knows about.

Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. The Sooners are 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Missouri Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +4

The Charlotte Bobcats get the call Tuesday as a 4-point underdog to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland should not be favored against anyone in the league as they are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.

The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, which includes 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.