Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -5

The Chicago Bulls are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season since Zach LaVine got hurt.  They are playing team basketball, playing smarter on offense with more 3's and layups, and I expect them to keep this momentum going tonight against the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland is without its top three scorers in Mitchell (27.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), Garland (20.7 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) right now.  Sam Merrill has been playing well at PG in their absence but even he is questionable tonight as well.  The Cavaliers stand no chance of being competitive on the road against the Bulls without Mitchell, Garland and Mobley.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Lakers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been grossly undervalued for three seasons now and remain undervalued this season.  They are 18-8 SU & 18-7-1 ATS this season.  The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating this season trailing only the 76ers and Celtics.

The Los Angeles Lakers won the in-season tournament and have just tanked since as they haven't bene as motivated.  The Lakers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against the Spurs by 3.  They also lost to the Spurs by 14, lost to the Knicks at home by 5, lost by 16 at Chicago and lost by 7 at Minnesota.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Lakers as James, Davis and Hachimura are all questionable for this one.  The Thunder blasted the Lakers 133-110 as 5.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting with them this season on November 30th.  It will be more of the same tonight, this time as even shorter 3.5-point favorites.

The Thunder are the much fresher team playing their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 6th game in 15 days.  The Lakers will be playing in their 7th different city in 12 days.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week.  They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week.  I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one.  I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders.  They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs.

The Bills have a very banged up defense.  They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde.  They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week.  The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one.

The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings.  This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -115

JA Morant showed no signs of rust in leading the Grizzlies to a big comeback win in a 115-113 victory at New Orleans as 8-point dogs in his return from suspension.  Morant had 34 points including the game-winner at the buzzer in a dramatic return.  He means everything to this team's success, and I think the Grizzlies are a 'bet on' team in the immediate future because of it.

Morant had 20 points and 8 assists in his second game back while Bane had 31 and Jackson Jr. had 21 as Morant just makes everything easier on his teammates.  We're getting an undervalued Grizzlies team due to a poor 8-19 start this season.  But now they have no margin for error the rest of the way and have to really go on a run if they want to make the playoffs.  I expect Morant and company to continue making a run from here on out.

Now the Grizzlies get to face a tired Atlanta Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Young and Bey both played nearly 40 minutes last night while Murray played 34 in a 113-122 loss in Miami.  The Hawks are short-handed right now without Jalen Johnson and AJ Griffin, plus De'Andre Hunter is questionable.

Atlanta is 7-21 ATS in all games this season, including a dreadful 1-10 ATS at home.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Atlanta is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive road games this season.  Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Utah/Northwestern Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Northwestern +7

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that improved by 6-plus wins (or by 50%-plus) from the prior regular season are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 bowl games as underdogs after going 4-1 ATS last season.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Northwestern.

The Northwestern Wildcats were one of the best stories in all of college football this season.  Interim head coach David Braun had to take over for Pat Fitzgerald just before the season.  After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats went 4-1 SU in their final five games with their only loss coming 10-7 to Big Ten West champion Iowa.  The Wildcats upset Wisconsin as 12-point road dogs, upset Maryland as 14.5-point home dogs and upset Illinois as 6.5-point road dogs.  They went 7-0 ATS in their final seven games.  The Wildcats clearly want to be here.

The Utah Utes had Pac-12 title expectations coming into the year.  But they never got their starting QB back from injury, and their offense struggled all season to keep up with what was a very good Utah defense.  The Utes limped to the finish line, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their final three games.  They lost by 24 at Arizona and then only beat Colorado by 6 as 21-point home favorites despite the Buffaloes playing without star QB Shedeur Sanders.  Utah does not want to be here after playing in the Rose Bowl the last two seasons.

The Utes had several players hit the transfer portal, plus they lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.  Leading WR Devaughn Vele (43 receptions, 593 yards, 3 TD) opted out as well.  Meanwhile, Northwestern only had one starter hit the transfer portal in LG Josh Priebe.  They will have all hands on deck for this one, further proof that they want to be here and finish the season the on a 4-game winning streak with yet another upset victory.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Georgia State/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Utah State ML +110

Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  This trend goes to show that teams that win their final regular season game to get bowl eligible are clearly motivated to be there and thus go out and perform well.  It think that will be the case for Utah State here.

In fact, Utah State went 3-1 SU in its final four games with its only loss coming to Boise State, which was the Mountain West champion.  The Aggies boast some impressive numbers for a team that is just 6-6 on the season.  They average 446.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play while allowing 417.6 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 29 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

Georgia State also finished 6-6 but clearly cannot be too happy to be here.  The Panthers opened 6-1 this season and looked to be a real contender to win the Sun Belt.  Instead, they have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since.  They lost by 17 to Georgia Southern, by 28 to James Madison, by 28 to Appalachian State and by 42 to LSU.  They weren't even competitive down the stretch, and head coach Shawn Elliott may have lost this team.  The Panthers are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play on the season.

Several of Georgia State's best players hit the transfer portal.  That includes leading rusher Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TD) and leading receiver Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TD).  Carroll is headed to Missouri while Lewis is headed to Auburn, so clearly those two programs thought both of these players were good enough to play in the SEC.  Starting RT Montavious Cunningham is headed to Virginia Tech and starting CB Bryquice Brown is headed to Boston College.  You could argue that Georgia State will be without its four best players now.

Utah State doesn't have any important players in the transfer portal other than S Devin Dye.  They should have basically all hands on deck here.  I also like the angle that QB Levi Williams will be playing in his final collegiate game before joining the military.  Williams actually played in this same bowl game last year leading Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State.  He rushed for 200 yards and 4 TD while also throwing for another score in the win.  

Williams was named MWC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against New Mexico in the regular season finale.  Hew went 16-of-27 passing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 169 yards and three scores to show off his dual-threat ability.  There is really no drop off from their other two QB's to Williams as the Aggies have arguably the best depth of any team in the country at QB.

This will also be basically a home game for the Aggies being played in Boise, Idaho, a stadium they are very familiar with getting to play Boise State every year.  It's only a 4 hour drive for their fans and they will have a big home-field advantage as a result.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UT-Arlington +8

North Texas lost its star PG to Kansas State in the transfer portal.  The Mean Green only brought back one starter this season and were gutted.  They have a reputation of being one of the best mid-major teams in the country from previous seasons, but that is no longer the case this season.  They continue to get too much respect for that reputation.

The Mean Green are just 5-5 SU this season with their five wins coming against Mississippi Valley State, Angelo State, Towson State, Nebraska-Omaha and Northern Iowa in OT.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost to Fordham, Mississippi State, Boise State, LSU and St. John's.

I like what I've seen from this UT-Arlington team on the road this season.  They only lost 80-82 as 14.5-point dogs at New Mexico, 69-76 as 11-point dogs at Grand Canyon and 66-77 as 13.5-point dogs at Texas Tech.  They took all three of those very good teams to the wire, and North Texas isn't nearly as good as those three squads.

Arlington is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games as a road underdog.  The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in all games this season, including 4-1 ATS in road games.  Bet UT-Arlington Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +5

West Virginia is rebuilding this season after moving on from Bob Huggins to Josh Eilert. They have five new starters this season and it has not gone well.  The Mountaineers are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS this season and they have no business being 5-point favorites against Toledo today.

West Virginia's four wins this season came by 8 over Missouri State, by 13 over Jacksonville State, by 4 over Bellarmine and by 6 over Drexel.  There are some very concerning losses as well.  They lost by 8 to UMass as a 3-point favorite on a neutral and were upset by Radford as a 6.5-point home favorite.  They were also blasted by Pitt by 17 at home and were upset as 14.5-point home favorites by Monmouth.

Toledo is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They took three other mid-major powers to the wire in losses to New Mexico by 8, UC-Irvine by 6 and Indiana State by 2.  They upset Oakland and upset Wright State in their two true road games this season.  I fully expect them to upset West Virginia today.

Toledo is 49-29 ATS in its last 78 games overall.  The Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after giving up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds in two consecutive games.  West Virginia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after losing two of its last three games.  Kowalczyk is 16-4 ATS after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse as the coach of Toledo.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Arkansas State/Northern Illinois Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State PK

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Arkansas State went 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season despite not being more than a 1-point favorite in any of the five games.  They crushed Texas State 77-31 to get bowl eligible.  They also took South Alabama to the wire in a 7-point road loss as a 15-point underdog.  Butch Jones now has the Red Wolves going to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 in his third season on the job.  This is a program on the rise.

The Red Wolves have all starters expected to play in this game other than LB Javante Mackey.  It's safe to say they are happy to be here and looking forward to this opportunity.  I expect fans to make the trip from Jonesboro to Montgomery, AL for this Camellia Bowl and support this team.

Northern Illinois went 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The three wins weren't impressive at all as all three came against three of the worst teams in all of college football in Eastern Michigan (130th), Western Michigan (127th) and Kent State (188th).  Those rankings are from Jeff Sagarin and combine FBS and FCS teams.  While Northern Illinois faced the 128th-ranked schedule in the country, Arkansas State faced the 113th.

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt this season with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and five scores on the ground.  I like this Arkansas State offense over Northern Illinois, which likely only has one proven healthy receiver for this game.  It's a lackluster NIU offense that averages just 25.3 points per game despite facing such a soft schedule.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mississippi State/Rutgers UNDER 133

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 246th in adjusted tempo, 361st in average defensive possession length, 14th in adjusted defense and 185th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 8-2 in all Rutgers games this season with 133 or fewer combined points in seven of their 10 games this season and 134 in another.

Mississippi State ranks 174th in adjusted tempo and 253rd in average possession length on offense.  The Bulldogs are also 13th in adjusted defense, so these are two Top 15 defensive teams in the country.  This is a sleepy early start time at 12:00 EST which will also favor defense, poor shooting and a slower tempo.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Mississippi State is 24-12 UNDER in its last 36 games as a favorite.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three against playoff contenders.  They upset the Pacers by 14 as 8.5-point home dogs, took the Suns to the wire in a 4-point road loss at 13-point dogs, covered in a 12-point loss at Sacramento as 14-point dogs and upset the Blazers as 4.5-point road dogs.  They are also a solid 11-6 ATS on the road this season, while the Warriors are 3-9 ATS at home.

This number has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Wizards will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But they had two days off prior to the Portland game, so they should still be pretty fresh.  And they are nearly at full strength right now and one of the deepest teams in the NBA playing nine different players significant minutes last night.

I think the spot is actually worse for the Warriors, who are coming off an upset win over the Celtics in OT on Thursday, which now sets them up for a letdown spot.  Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II, plus Brandin Podziemski is questionable after leaving the Boston game with a back injury.  The Warriors can't be double-digit favorites over anyone right now given their current state.

In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season!  Their largest margin of victory in their last 19 games has been 6 points! They haven't won any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, making for a 23-0 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Golden State has beaten Washington by more than 9 points just once in their last nine meetings.  Jordan Poole wants some revenge here on the team that let him go as well.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -8.5

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses to the Bucks, Cavaliers and Hawks.  They took all three to the wire in single-digit losses but came up just short.

Now the Rockets will take out their frustration on the short-handed Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks were already struggling even when Luka Doncic was healthy because they were missing so many other key guys.  Now they are without Doncic too, and the future is grim for the Mavericks until some of these guys get back healthy.

Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 18 at home to Minnesota, by 26 at Denver and by 9 at home to the Clippers.  The Mavericks will be without Doncic (32.7 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG), Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.2 APG), Lively II (8.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Exum (8.6 PPG) and Green (6.9 PPG) tonight.  They don't stand a chance of even being competitive against the motivated Rockets, who won't be taking them lightly given they have lost three straight.

The Rockets are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  Houston is 11-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the 76ers and Raptors already this season.  The first two meetings saw 221 and 213 combined points, and it will be another defensive struggle tonight.

In fact, the 76ers and Raptors have combined for 229 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Most of these meetings haven't even sniffed this total with 213 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 meetings.

The Raptors are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 21st in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating.  The 76ers rank 2nd in defensive rating which has been the key to their success this season.  The 76ers may not have PG De'Anthony Melton, who left their last game with a thigh injury and is questionable, which would also help us cash this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on SMU -5.5

Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in the country.  He was fired from Iowa State, and he returned to Murray State where he previously had success.  It was a disaster last season in his first season back, and it hasn't gone any better this season, proving that he's one of the worst in the business.

Murray State is just 3-8 SU & 3-7 ATS this season.  The Racers just lost outright two games ago at home to SE Louisiana as a double-digit favorite.  Then they were blown out by 14 as 1.5-point favorites at Arkansas-Little Rock to suffer their 8th loss in 9 games.

Murray State has compiled this awful record against the 278th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they must face one of the best teams they have all season in SMU.  And the biggest difference between these teams is defense, where Murray State ranks 316th in adjusted defense while SMU ranks 34th and actually gets after it on that end.  Prohm just doesn't coach defense.

SMU won its last road game 68-57 at Florida State as a 5.5-point dog.  This will be a pretty big step down in class for the Mustangs, who have already faced the likes of FSU, ASU, Dayton, Wisconsin and Texas A&M.  Murray State won't have its normal home-court advantage with students home for Christmas.  I expect the Mustangs to treat this is a business trip.  The Mustangs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 December games, while the Racers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet SMU Friday.

20* Drake/UAB CBB No-Brainer on Drake -3

The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They should have beaten Miami in the NCAA Tournament but blew a double-digit lead late.  Miami went on to the Final Four.  Drake brought back almost everyone from that team and is off to an 11-1 start this season.

UAB has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country for the last handful of years.  However, that's clearly no longer the case when you look at the results for the Blazers thus far.  But they are still getting respect for what they have done in the past, so there is value in fading them still.

UAB is 6-5 SU & 4-6 ATS this season with some very troubling results.  They only beat Alcorn State by 3 as 16.5-point favorites.  That gives them a common opponent with Drake, which just beat Alcorn State 92-55 as 18-point favorites.  That result tells you all you need to know.

But UAB has also lost at home to McNeese State by 21 as 5.5-point favorites, was upset at home by Southern Miss as 9.5-point favorites, and got crushed at Arkansas State by 19 as 4.5-point favorites.  UAB is now 1-9 ATS in its last 10 December games.  The Blazers won't have much of a home-court advantage at all with this being an afternoon game at 3:00 EST and students home for Christmas.  I expect the Bulldogs to treat this as a business trip.  Bet Drake Friday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for.  The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons.  The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points.  They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams.

But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of.  They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall.  Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury.  I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company.

The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points.  The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings.  This 44.5-point total is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Syracuse/South Florida Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +3

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for South Florida.

South Florida finished 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14 in their regular season finale.  The Bulls will be going to their first bowl game since 2018, so they are clearly happy to be here.  They didn't have any significant opt-opts and will have basically all hands on deck for this one.

Syracuse limped to the finish going 2-6 in its final six games with the two wins coming against non-bowl teams in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and the Orange had a few players hit the transfer portla.  I think they have very questionable motivation heading into this one as a result and are a vulnerable favorite.

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Bulls put up 30.8 points per game and 455.3 yards per game this season and will have a big advantage on offnese in this matchup.  They rush for 185 yards per game and throw for 271 yards per game.  Syracuse is actually getting outgained by 22.6 yards per game on the season.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Grizzlies OVER 246

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 21-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.  Books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.

That's the case again tonight with this 246-point total against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been an under team to this point, but they quickly flip to an over team with the return of JA Morant from suspension.  He has 34 points in their upset win of the New Orleans Pelicans in his return to action on Tuesday.  He makes everything easier on his teammates with his ability to break down a defense.

Indiana is 10-1 OVER in all road games this season and we're seeing an average of 259.1 combined points per game in all Indiana road games.  The Pacers are 18-4 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bulls OVER 228.5

The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense.  The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in 10 consecutive games and 120 or more six times during this stretch.  They are still a poor defensive team ranking 20th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 11-2 in Bulls last 13 games overall.  Now they take on a Spurs team that is 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 241, 244, 256 and 251 combined points scored.  The Spurs rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, making them a great OVER team.  

They also played the Bulls to an OVER on December 8th in a game that saw 233 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Spurs have now combined for 229 combined points or more in each of their last five meetings, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  It will be more of the same tonight with 230-plus combined points.

The Spurs are 10-1 OVER after playing a road game this season.  The Bulls are 27-13 OVER in their last 40 non-conference games.  San Antonio is 7-0 OVER in non-conference games this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -10.5

I love the spot for Bradley tonight.  They opened the season 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS but have since gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games with a step up in competition.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid, and I think they get a double-digit blowout victory as they are taking a big step down in class tonight.

SIU-Edwardsville is 7-5 this season but ranked 268th in KenPom.  They have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 SU in true road games losing by 16 at Dayton, by 18 at Missouri, by 12 at South Alabama, by 23 at Troy and by 12 at Ball State.  So they have lost all five road games by 12 points or more, and Bradley (122nd) is ranked higher than South Alabama (183rd), Troy (210th) and Ball State (241st) in KenPom.

Bradley is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games following an ATS win.  Edwardsville is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 December road games.  Bradley is 11-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet Bradley Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Kings OVER 233.5

The Sacramento Kings rank 8th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating.  The pace and offensive rating would be higher if not for several missed games from De'Aaron Fox.  But they are a dead nuts OVER team when Fox is healthy, and they are fully healthy as a team right now.

The Kings just combined for 274 points with the Wizards last time out and 249 with the Nets and 251 with the Thunder in three of their last four home games.  This total is just too low tonight for a Sacramento home game.

That's especially the case when you consider they will be taking on one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA in the Boston Celtics.  The Celtics rank 6th in offensive rating.  They combined with 242 points with the Warriors at the end of regulation last night and they didn't even have offensive weapon Kristaps Porzingis, who likely sat out that game knowing he would play in this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Sacramento is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games following two consecutive wins.  The OVER is 37-20 in Kings last 57 home games.  Sacramento is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -115

The Boston Celtics are in one of the worst spots I've seen all season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after going to OT with the Warriors last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes last night, including 40-plus from Tatum, Brown and White.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

The Celtics haven't been playing very well on the road as it is.  They are actually 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Their two wins came by 3 as 9-point favorites at Toronto and by 2 as 11-point favorites at Memphis.  They lost outright as 8.5-point favorites at Charlotte, lost outright by 17 as 5.5-point favorites at Orlando, lost outright by 10 as 4.5-point favorites at Indiana and lost outright by 6 as 5-point favorites at Golden State last night.

The Kings are rolling at home right now going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games winning by 13 over the Nets, by 5 over the Thunder, by 21 over the Jazz and by 12 over the Wizards.  They also recently beat the defending champion Nuggets at home.  They are 10-3 SU at home this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +8.5

UC-Irvine is one of the most underrated mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 7-4 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 10 points or less, including three by 8 points or fewer.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at New Mexico.

UC-Irvine only lost by 1 at San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs two games ago and SDSU is every bit as good as New Mexico.  They only lost by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs, upset USC 70-60 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed New Mexico State 91-74 as 9-point home favorites.

Speaking of New Mexico State, that is a common opponent of these two.  New Mexico only beat New Mexico State 73-72 as 14.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 13.5 points.  The Lobos are coming off that win over their in-state rivals and won't be as motivated to beat UC-Irvine tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -3

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how dangerous they can be when fully healthy.  They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and I fully expect them to extend that winning streak to nine games tonight in Dallas.

The Mavericks are not healthy.  They are without Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber right now.  That puts a lot on Luka Doncic's shoulders to carry the scoring load, and while he's playing at an MVP level, he cannot beat this loaded Clippers team on his own.

It did not go well for Doncic and the short-handed Mavericks in two games against two other elite teams here recently.  They lost 119-101 at home to the Timberwolves three games ago and 130-104 to the Nuggets last time out.  I fully expect them to get blasted again tonight against another title contender in the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have the biggest home/road splits of any team in the NBA.  They are 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS on the road, but an impressive 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS at home.  The Rockets are coming off consecutive road losses to the Bucks and Cavs by single-digits, so they return home motivated for a victory tonight.

They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.  The Hawks are 11-15 SU & 6-20 ATS this season.  That includes 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and they are once again getting too much respect here as only 3-point road dogs to the Rockets, who are the much superior and more complete team.

The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 27th, and that is the biggest difference between these teams.  One plays defense and the other does not.  Plus, injuries are mounting up for the Hawks as Jalen Johnson remains out while both Bogdan Bogdanovic and AJ Griffin are questionable.  The Rockets look to be fully healthy right now.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bulls OVER 224.5

The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense.  The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in nine consecutive games and 120 or more five times during this stretch.  They are still a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating.

The Los Angeles Lakers are also playing very poor defensively since winning the in-season tournament.  They are 3-1 OVER in their four games since with 252, 241, 244 and 223 combined points.  They have allowed 127, 119, 129 and 114 points in those four games.  But the Lakers have scored at least 115 pints in five of their last six games, including 122 or more four times.

The Lakers are 40-22 OVER in their last 62 road games.  The Bulls are 26-13 OVER in their last 39 non-conference games.  The Lakers and Bulls have combined for at least 224 points in four consecutive meetings and 224 or more in seven of their last eight meetings with the OVER going 7-1 in those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Valley +5.5

Utah Valley is 6-5 SU & 6-3 ATS this season.  The Wolverines are 4-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at home.  They upset Seattle 78-72 as 3-point home dogs and upset Weber State 70-54 as 2-point home dogs.  They are coming off consecutive covers as road underdogs at Oregon State and at Utah as well.

The Wolverines now host a Liberty team that I believe is grossly overvalued due to a home-heavy schedule in the early going.  In fact, the Flames have played just one true road game this season, and that resulted in a 83-58 blowout loss at Florida Atlantic.  They should not be favored by 5.5 points on the road today.

I've seen Liberty play a few times this season and what stands out to me is just how short they are as a team.  The Flames rank dead last (362nd) in the country in average height.  Utah Valley ranks 119th and will have a big advantage on the boards in this one.

Utah Valley is 31-12 ATS in its last 43 games overall, including 9-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  The Wolverines are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games after covering three of their last four games.  Utah Valley is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines have been grossly undervalued for multiple seasons now.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 248.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 20-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall.

Now they take on a Charlotte Hornets team that doesn't mind getting up and down.  It's also a Hornets team that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, so these are two of the three worst defensive teams in the NBA to this point.

Indiana is 11-1 OVER following a loss this season.  The Pacers are 8-1 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Cavaliers OVER 227

The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team than most realize because they brought in a couple shooters and are attempting more 3-pointers and playing faster this season.  That has been on display here of late as they combined with 244 points with the Rockets at the end of regulation, 246 points with the Hawks, 223 with the Celtics in the rematch and 233 with the Celtics in the first meeting in their last four games coming in.

The Utah Jazz are an OVER team as long as their best player in Lauri Markkanen is on the floor, and he has been healthy here of late.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233, 229, 236, 230 and 254 points in their last five games coming in.  As you can see, this total of 227 is too low based on what both these teams have done of late.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 231.5

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end.

The Warriors are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 11 of those 14 games.  This total of 231.5 is too low for a game involving the Warriors right now.  Each of their last five games have seen 232 or more combined points.

Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is extremely efficient on the offensive end, ranking 6th in the NBA in offensive rating.  The Celtics have scored at least 112 points in nine consecutive games while going 8-1 over that stretch.  They score 117.6 points per game on 47.8% shooting this season.

Golden State is 13-3 OVER vs. good shooting teams making 46% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Marquette/Providence FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Providence +4.5

Marquette is overvalued right now after early season wins over Illinois, UCLA, Kansas and Texas.  Since that Texas win, they failed to cover against Notre Dame and were nearly upset by St. Thomas in a 5-point home win as 23-point favorites.  I think they are being overvalued again today on the road at Providence.

Providence is 8-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.4 points per game. That includes a 72-59 win as 1.5-point dogs to Wisconsin.  That gives these teams are common opponent as Marquette actually lost 75-64 at Wisconsin as 3-point favorites.

The Friars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Providence Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Troy +13

It's time to 'sell high' on the Ole Miss Rebels.  They are 10-0 this season but very fortunate to still be unbeaten.  Nine of their 10 wins have come by 11 points or fewer including narrow wins against the likes of Alabama State (10), Eastern Washington (11), Detroit (1), Sam Houston State (3, Temple (1) and Mount St. Mary's (9).

Ole Miss has also faced the 256th-ranked schedule in the country, and as you can see the competition has been weak.  I think Troy can stay within 13 tonight.  The Trojans have just one loss this season by more than 12 points.

Troy went on the road and only lost by 12 at Dayton as 13.5-point dogs.  They also have a 1-point loss at Oregon State as 7.5-point dogs and a 1-point loss at Eastern Kentucky as 5.5-point dogs.  They have actually done their best work away from home and are 5-1-1 ATS in all lined games this season.

Ole Miss is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.  Troy has had the last six days off to rest and prepare for Ole Miss.  The Rebels have only had the last two days off and won't be nearly as fresh or prepared.  Bet Troy Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing C Mitchell Robinson to injury.  He is their eraser inside defensively but he doesn't provide much offensively.  The Knicks have had to go more small ball since losing him.

The OVER is 8-0 in Knicks last eight games overall.  We have seen 230 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  That includes 261 combined points with Phoenix and 266 combined points with the Clippers in their last two games.  It should be more of the same against the Lakers tonight.

The Lakers are in a letdown phase since winning the in-season tournament.  They have just quit playing defense.  The OVER is 3-0 in Lakers last three games overall with 252, 241 and 244 combined points.  They allowed 127 to the Mavericks, 129 to the Spurs and 119 to the Spurs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Eagles/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks have two banged up, tired defenses right now heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  These are also two very healthy offenses that can take advantages of these defenses.  That's why I'm on the OVER, plus the forecast looks pretty good for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 40's.

The Seahawks have allowed 33.3 points per game, 438.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play in their last three games.  They have six players in the front seven depth chart that are out or on the IR.  They have two more secondary players on IR and three more questionable, including CB Devon Witherspoon.  They have no depth right now, and SS Jamal Adams continues to get exposed in coverage week after week.

The Eagles are allowing 36.3 points per game, 451.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their last three games.  The Eagles have four players on IR in the back seven, plus FS Reed Blankenship suffered a concussion last week and will likely sit.  He means a lot to his secondary.  CB Darius Slay has lost a step and is questionable.  Opponents are really picking on this Eagles' secondary, and the Seahawks will be able to do the same.  This defense was on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs, 91 against the Bills, 55 against the 49ers and then 71 plays against the Cowboys.

The Eagles have been getting a lot of grief on offense the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys.  They fumbled three times in Dallas territory and should have scored more.  They finally get a reprieve here against the Seahawks, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  So they should get right on offense.  

The Seahawks have been good offensively the last two weeks scoring 35 points against the Cowboys before Geno Smith sat out last week, but they were still productive against the 49ers.  They get Smith back this week from a groin injury and also take a big step down in defensive class here after having to face the 49ers (twice) and Cowboys in their last three games.

Pete Carroll is 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  Both of these teams are dead nuts OVER teams in their current form and both offenses should be able to take advantage of two of the worst secondaries in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas-Little Rock +1.5

Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in the country.  He was fired from Iowa State, and he returned to Murray State where he previously had success.  It was a disaster last season in his first season back, and it hasn't gone any better this season, proving that he's one of the worst in the business.

Murray State is just 3-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season.  The Racers have been awful on the road, going 0-5 SU in neutral/true road games this season.  They also just lost outright at home to SE Louisiana as a double-digit favorite for their 7th loss in 8 games.  They should not be favored on the road tonight.

Arkansas-Little Rock is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, including 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games coming in.  They also have a massive rest advantage.  They have had the last four days off to prepare for this game, while Murray State just lost to SE Louisiana on Saturday and only had one day to get ready, plus the travel.  It will be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Racers as well.

Murray State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing a marginal losing team (40-49%).  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -3

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how dangerous they can be when fully healthy.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and I fully expect them to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight in Indiana.

The Pacers are going through a letdown phase after coming up just short in the in-season tournament, losing in the championship to the Lakers.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 14 at Milwaukee, by 14 as 8.5-point favorites at Washington and by 18 at Minnesota.

I always like fading teams in their first home game back from a long road trip.  Well, the Pacers have been on the road since December 7th dating back to the in-season tournament in Las Vegas.  There are a lot of distractions they have to deal with at home when returning from a long road trip.  Plus, their two best players in Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are questionable.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pacers OVER 245.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 19-6 in all Pacers games this season.

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how potent they can be offensively when fully healthy, which has been the case during their 7-game winning streak and is the case tonight.  The Clippers have scored at least 111 points in nine consecutive games.  They have combined for 266 points with the Knicks and 259 points with the Blazers recently, and another high-scoring affair will be the result tonight against the Pacers.

These teams combined for 261 points in their most recent meeting.  The Clippers are 33-20 OVER in their last 53 road games, including 20-6 OVER in their last 26 road games after going over the total in their previous game.  The Pacers are 59-35 OVER in their last 94 home games.  The Pacers are 10-1 OVER following a loss this season.  Indiana is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 home games vs. a good team (60-70% winning percentage).  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +16.5

Oakland is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Golden Grizzlies have gone 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS this season.  They upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs, only lost to Ohio State by 6 as 19.5-point road dogs and only lost to Illinois by 11 as 24-point road dogs.  They have shown they can play with the big boys, and they will give Michigan State a run for its money tonight.

Michigan State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Spartans are 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS this season despite coming into the season being ranked in the Top 5 in the country.  They lost outright at home to James Madison as a 16.5-point favorite and lost outright to Wisconsin by 13 as a 5-point home favorite.

The spot really favors Oakland tonight.  They have had the last 9 days off to rest and prepare to play Michigan State.  The Spartans are coming off an upset win over Baylor in Detroit on Saturday to hand the Bears their first loss of the season.  They are in a letdown spot off that win, and they won't be prepared to face Oakland with just one day to get ready for them.

Oakland is 8-0 ATS off a non-conference game this season.  The Golden Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win.  Oakland only lost by 13 to Michigan State last year and by 12 to the Spartans the year prior.  They are getting too many points once again here in this annual meeting.  Bet Oakland Monday.

20* WKU/Old Dominion Famous Toastery Bowl No-Brainer on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion fought hard to make a bowl game and is happy to be here.  The Monarchs needed to win their final two games of the season just to get bowl eligible and did so in dramatic fashion.  They upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point road dogs and then pulled off the 25-24 comeback win over Georgia State in the final seconds at home in the regular season finale.

Now Old Dominion fits into several bowl systems that have been very profitable.  Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky is used to competing for conference championships but they were denied by Liberty and New Mexico State this season.  This despite Conference USA being one of the worst conferences in the country.  The Hilltoppers just didn't have it, especially defensively where they allowed 28.2 points per game and 427 yards per game this season.  Their offense was also down a couple notches from the past fewer years.

Now this WKU offense is going to be down a couple more notches.  They had three starting offensive linemen hit the transfer portal.  Reports have surfaced that starting QB Austin Reed could miss the bowl, and backup QB Caden Veltkamp is also in the transfer portal, meaning they could be down to a third-string QB.  NFL prospect WR Malachi Corley is also worth watch.  I like Old Dominion whether or not Reed and Corley play, and this line will move even more of they don't.

The Hilltoppers' already suspect defense will be without starting CB Upton Stout, starting LB Desmyn Baker, starting S Talique Allen and CB TJ Stringer.  So they will be without three starters in the secondary, making life easy on Old Dominion their passing game.  The Monarchs will only be missing three starters in WR Javon Harvey, S Terry Jones and LB Jason Henderson.  This will be just their 2nd bowl game since 2017, so they are clearly happy to be here with so few opt-outs.

The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these C-USA teams did and are more battle-tested as a result.  The Monarchs played the 81st-toughest schedule while the Hilltoppers played the 123rd.

Western Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with its only cover coming against one of the worst teams in all of college football in Florida International by 13 as 11.5-point favorites.  The Hilltoppers are 1-7 ATS after committing one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hilltoppers just don't stand much of a chance without three starting offensive linemen and four starters on defense and possibly more.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Blazers OVER 231.5

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end.

The Warriors are 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 10 of those.  This total of 231.5 is too low for a game involving the Warriors right now.

That's especially the case when you consider the Blazers have gotten healthy lately and have been an OVER team themselves since.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall with 236 or more combined points in all four.  They have a bunch of talented young guards and will be a fun team to watch moving forward.

Golden State is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 December road games.  The OVER is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo ML -120

The Dallas Cowboys hadn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record all season until they finally got that monkey off their back last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Now I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys coming off that win over their biggest rivals.

The Cowboys had some aid in that game as the Eagles came in with a very tired defense that was on the field for a ton of players the previous two games against the Bills and 49ers.  The Eagles didn't have much left in the tank, and they also had three costly fumbles that were somehow all recovered by the Cowboys.

While this Dallas offense has been humming at home and indoors, the Cowboys now have to go on the road and play on grass in the elements.  I don't think their offense will be nearly as effective.  They also take a big step up in class in opposing defenses after getting to play the Eagles, Seahawks and Commanders the last three weeks.  I think the Bills have the better defense in this matchup.

How has Dallas fared lately on the road outdoors on grass?  How about 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last eight road games on grass.  Now they must take on a rested Bills team that had a bye two weeks ago before going on the road and upsetting the Chiefs 20-17 as underdogs last week.  Now the Bills are very much alive for the playoffs with a lot to play for.  

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Buffalo working in their advantage as the Cowboys rely a lot on timing for their offense.  You hear Dak use "Here We Go" before every snap at home, and it gives them an advantage with that cadence to time it right.  Players won't be able to hear him in Buffalo, and I think we see a ton of Cowboys penalties on offense in this game because of it.  This is one of the most undisciplined teams in the NFL under Mike McCarthy as it is.

I was on Buffalo last week and said they were the best 6-6 team in the history of the NFL, and now they are the best 7-6 team in NFL history.  All six of their losses have come by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  They are outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game, outgaining them by 57 yards per game and outgaining them by 0.3 yards per play on the season.

Sean McDermott is 11-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  They finally won a close game and now have a ton of confidence and new life heading into this week.  They are still very much alive to win the AFC East with the Dolphins injured and faltering.  Dating back further, Buffalo is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 games off a win by 3 point or less.  Bet the Bills on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Rams OVER 48.5

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER 4-0 in their last four games overall with 50 or more combined points in all four.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being their game against the Patriots, who are a dead nuts under team with no offense and a great defense.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rams last three games overall with 51, 55 and 68 combined points.  Their defense gave up 37 points and 449 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders are coming off their bye week and should have some new wrinkles on offense to give this mediocre Rams defense some troubles.  Rookie QB Sam Howell ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,449 yards this season.  He has ample weapons outside to get the ball to, and he's a dual-threat who averages 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 rushing touchdowns this season.  He is also a turnover machine.  This offense is pretty much fully healthy heading into this game and will have to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep up with the Rams, who will name their number.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Los Angeles Rams have fought their way back into playoff contention since getting healthy.  All of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been banged up at times this season and missed games.  But now all four are healthy and we're getting to see that this is one of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.  The Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens in their last three games.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.

Stafford is completing 60% of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 19-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and averaging 7.3 per attempt.  Williams has rushed for 801 yards and accounted for 10 total TD while averaging 5.0 per attempt on the ground.  Having him back in the lineup has meant everything.  Kupp is finally fully healthy for the first time all season, and Nacua has 82 receptions for 1,113 yards and 4 TD to emerge as one of the top receivers in the NFL already.

The Rams have also allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall as they have finally gotten healthy.  Only the Ravens hung more than 20 on them, and the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they face a Commanders offense that has been held to 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games.  Sam Howell is a turnover machine as the Commanders have 11 turnovers in their last five games during this stretch.  Howell is going to have to play a flawless game for the Commanders to have any chance, and I don't see that happening.  This line should be -7 or higher.

You also have to question the motivation of Washington.  Ron Rivera fired a couple staff members already, and he is a dead man walking at the end of the season and players know it.  It's going to be hard for these players to be motivated the rest of the way knowing that's the case.  The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +14

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They are coming off their bye week and these bye weeks are usually more effective for teams with first-year head coaches like Arizona.  The Cardinals continue to show up every week and have been competitive in three of their last four games, including outright upsets over Atlanta at home and Pittsburgh on the road since getting Kyler Murray back.  They also only lost by 5 at Houston as 5.5-point dogs, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Their only blowout loss came to the Rams, a team that has owned them since Sean McVay took over.

This is a terrible spot for the San Francisco 49ers.  They have won five consecutive games since their bye week with the last three coming against the Seahawks (twice) and Eagles.  After playing two division games and getting their revenge on the Eagles, this is the 'exhale' game for the 49ers.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory in Arizona.  They won't be worrying about getting margin.  Plus, they have another massive game against Baltimore on deck, so that makes this a sandwich spot for them.

We saw the Seahawks cover against the 49ers last week after getting blown out by them in the first meeting.  I think we see the same thing here.  Arizona lost 35-16 in San Francisco as 15-point underdogs in that first meeting this season.  But that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  The 49ers only outgained the Cardinals by 33 yards in that game.  Josh Dobbs was the starting QB in that game, and twice receivers dropped TD passes that would have gotten the Cardinals the back door cover in the closing seconds.  Murray is clearly and upgrade over Dobbs.

The 49ers had six starters miss practice on Wednesday heading into this game.  DT Arik Armstead, OL Spencer Burford, LB Oren Burks, LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Javon Hargrave and CB Charvaius Ward were all out Wednesday.  That makes all six questionable heading into this one, and I would not be surprised to see the 49ers be cautious with some of these guys thinking they can still beat the Cardinals without them.

The Cardinals should get rookie WR Michael Wilson back for the first time since November 17th.  There's also a decent chance WR Marquise Brown plays after the bye week.  CB Antonio Hamilton sat out last game but is back practicing.  The bottom line is the Cardinals should be much healthier this week, while the 49ers have a lot of key players that could miss this game after getting battered against the Seahawks last week.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers, who are power-rated through the roof by everyone right now.  Plays against road favorites (San Francisco) - a dominant team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game after a win by 10 points or more are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now.  They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well.

But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too.  They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week.  The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers.  They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye.

The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four.

The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now.  Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week.  The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock.  I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense.  Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season.  Kyler Murray should have even more success.  

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome.  We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games.  Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic today.  They will be out for revenge from a 111-128 loss in Boston on Friday night.  They were closing 5-point dogs in that game, and after getting blown out, they are now 9-point dogs in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment up.

The Celtics won't be motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in 3 days, so they are primed for a letdown.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Celtics have just two wins by more than 10 points in their last 14 games overall.

The Magic are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Magic are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as well with that 17-point loss the only one that came by more than 6 points.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

I've backed the Bears each of the last two weeks and they delivered pulling off the outright upsets over the Vikings and Lions.  I'm going to back them again this week as 3.5-point road dogs to Cleveland as they continue to be undervalued.  Their season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they have been a completely different team in the 2nd half of the season.

It basically started when they traded for Montez Sweat and the defense got healthy.  The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games.  The held the Lions to just 14 points with only a few minutes left in the game before the Lions went off for 17 points in the final couple minutes.  They got their revenge on the Lions with a 28-13 home win last week, holding them to 267 total yards in the process.

Now the Bears actually feel like they are still alive for the playoffs at 5-8 this season.  If they win this game against Cleveland, then they have two home games they will likely be favored in the next two weeks against Arizona and Atlanta.  They can legitimately get to 8-8 this season, and that would keep them alive because the 6-7 Packers are currently in the playoffs in the NFC if the season were to end today.  They play the Packers in Week 18.

Justin Fields returned against the Lions three weeks ago and has been playing some pretty flawless football both as a runner and as a passer.  He has found a great connection with DJ Moore, and the Bears have really opened up the playbook.  Also helping matters is the fact that the Bears are currently the healthiest team in the NFL.  They only have five players on the injury report and two are likely to play this week with only one for sure out.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns are the most injury-riddled team in the entire NFL right now.  They are down to their 4th different starting QB in Joe Flacco, and while he has played well, there's reason to believe he won't this week.  That's because the offensive line will be without their top 3 offensive tackles.  G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic are also questionable.  This is an absolute mash unit up front for Flacco.

Defensively, DE Myles Garrett is banged up.  DT Jordan Elliott, CB Denzel Ward, and FS Juan Thornhill are all questionable.  SS Grant Delpit just hit the IR after suffering a groin injury last week.  This Cleveland defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks due to all these injuries.  They are allowing 30.7 points per game in their last three games.  They gave up 29 to Denver, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jaguars.  The Bears are going to have a lot of success against this defense, especially on the ground.  Cleveland is allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per game in its last four games.

Cleveland would have gone five consecutive games without winning once by more than 3 points if the Jaguars had kicked the XP at the end in a 4-point loss.  That's why getting this +3.5 number is so key.  Also keep in mind the Jaguars were playing with a banged-up and immobile Trevor Lawrence, he was missing his top receiver and both starting tackles on offense.  Yet the Jaguars still scored 27 points on them.  And this will be the toughest defense that Joe Flacco will have faced after getting to face the Jaguars and Rams previously.  I fully expect Chicago to win this game outright.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have been grossly undervalued since Tommy DeVito took over as the full-time starter.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets.  They beat Washington 31-19 as 7.5-point road dogs, the Patriots 10-7 as 4.5-point home dogs and the Packers 24-22 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are being undervalued again here as 6-point road dogs at New Orleans.

DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 66% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 6.8 per attempt, plus he adds a dual-threat dimension with 71 rushing yards and on 10 attempts against the Packers.  The Giants used their bye well and came up with the proper game plan to beat the Packers and use DeVito's legs more.  And now they should still be fresh considering they just had a bye week to make up for the fact that this is a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

But while I believe the Giants are undervalued, this is as much a bet against the Saints being overvalued as anything.  They are coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season last week when they beat the Panthers 28-6.  They only gained 207 yards in that game and gave up 303 yards to the Panthers, nearly getting outgained by 100 yards despite winning by 22.

Derek Carr came out and said he's playing through fractured ribs.  This is a very banged up Saints team with their top two WR's in Olave and Shaheed questionable.  G Andrus Peat is also questionable as is do-it-all QB Taysom Hill, who sat out last week.  Defensively, the Saints have lost their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, starting S Marcus Maye and starting DT Malcolm Roach who are all on injured reserve.

I just don't think there's much separating these two teams right now.  The Giants' season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they are a much better team now than they were in the first half of the season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on the offensive line and at receiver, plus having RB Saquan Barkley healthy has made a big difference as well.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters and is playing at a high level right now.  The team clearly has belief now with DeVito under center.

Derek Carr is 19-37 ATS as a favorite in his career, including 9-26 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Dennis Allen is 6-16 ATS as a favorite as a head coach, including 2-8 ATS this season.  Allen is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 points or more as a head coach.  New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  New York is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz are getting healthier and playing well again as a result.  They are coming off consecutive upset wins as underdogs over the New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers.  They recently got both Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler back from injury, and these are arguably their two most important players.

Now the Jazz are catching too many points on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  De'Aaron Fox is questionable to play and he means everything to the Kings' success.  I still like the Jazz even if he does play, but this line will crash if he doesn't.

Utah has just one loss by more than 9 points in its last 35 meetings with Sacramento.  That makes for a 34-1 system backing the Jazz pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Warriors OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end.

The Warriors are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those.  The Nets are the definition of team basketball with multiple guys that can beat you on any given night.  The Warriors will have a hard time adjusting to try and stop the Nets, who have seven players averaging double-digits scoring.

The Nets and Warriors combined for 256 and 236 points in their last two meetings.  Golden State is 12-3 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Broncos/Lions Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver +5.5

The Detroit Lions just cannot be trusted right now because they are so poor defensively.  They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Packers, 28 to the Saints and 28 to the Bears in their last five games.  There is no help in sight, especially since they lost one of their most important defensive players in DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve two games ago.

Jared Goff is not playing well either and he has poor protection in front of him.  Both T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow are questionable for this game.  Now he'll be up against a very good Denver defense that has allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games and an average of 14.8 points per game in those eight games.  They have been grossly undervalued after a poor start to the season by their defense, but now they are healthy and showing what they are capable of.

This defensive surge for the Broncos is a big reason why they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last even games overall with their lone loss coming by 5 points at Houston in a game where they had a chance to win in the closing seconds but threw an INT in the end zone.  They beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Packers and Chargers during this 6-1 stretch, so it's not like they are beating up on the weak.  Five of those six wins came against playoff contenders.

This Denver offense is taking care of the football with a ball control offense and taking shots when they are there.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games overall, and they won't have a problem getting to that number against this soft Detroit defense.  This is actually a big step down in class for them after facing the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Chiefs in their last six games.  Russell Wilson is in line for a big game, as is RB Javonte Williams and this Denver rushing attack.

Detroit is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Sean Payton is 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as a head coach.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after allowing 25 points or more in four consecutive games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  This game will likely be decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Broncos Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are loaded this season.  They are 18-5 SU including 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game.  The Timberwolves will make easy work of the Indiana Pacers tonight.

While the Timberwolves are fully healthy, the Pacers could be without MVP candidate Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  They are already without PG Andrew Nembhard and PF Jalen Smith.  Haliburton suffered a knee injury in a 123-137 loss at Washington last night.  Now the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.

This is a tired Pacers team after making it to the championship game of the in-season tournament.  That has started to show in their last two games losing by 14 as 6.5-point dogs in Milwaukee and then getting upset by 14 as 8.5-point favorites in Washington last night, failing to cover the spread by 22.5 points.

The Timberwolves will be the much fresher team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are also the much better defensive team ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive rating while the Pacers are 28th.  Plays against road underdogs (Indiana) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that's off a road win by 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pacers.  Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Alabama/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +7.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have gone 2-3 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  The three losses came to Ohio State, Clemson and Purdue.  The Crimson Tide have now faced the 21st-toughest schedule in the entire country and are battle-tested to say the least.

Creighton is good at beating up on the weak.  But the Bluejays have struggled in a couple games this season that are very concerning.  They lost outright 69-48 as 9-point favorites on a neutral to Colorado State and outright 79-64 as 13.5-point favorites on a neutral to UNLV.  They got blown out in both of those games.

Now this is a tough spot for Creighton having just two days since the UNLV game to get ready to face Alabama.  Meanwhile, Alabama has had an entire week to get ready for Creighton after having the last six days off since a tough 92-86 loss to Purdue on a neutral.  Many consider Purdue the best team in the country.

Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after making 10 or more 3-pointers in consecutive games.  Alabama ranks 1st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage this season.  Creighton hasn't faced a team as good as Alabama yet, and they shouldn't be 7.5-point favorites here.  

Nate Oats is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* Arizona/Purdue No-Brainer on Arizona PK

The Arizona Wildcats look like the best team in the country and continue to lack the respect they deserves.  The Wildcats are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 30.1 points per game on average.  They have the big men inside that will finally give Purdue trouble.

We've seen Arizona already handle a pair of Big Ten teams in Wisconsin 98-73 and Michigan State 74-68.  The Wildcats also went on the road and beat Duke 78-73, handing the Blue Devils their first loss at Cameron Indoor in a couple seasons.

Purdue lost 92-88 (OT) to Northwestern.  The Boilermakers have had to escape with several victories, beating Gonzaga by 10, Tennessee by 4, Marquette by 3 and Alabama by 6.  Their luck runs out today against a superior team here in Arizona, which ranks 2nd in adjusted defense and 6th in adjusted offense, the only team to rank in the top 6 in both categories this season.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah State -2

Utah State is loaded this season.  The Aggies are 10-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  This will basically be a home game for them being played in Salt Lake City, UT.

San Francisco is 8-3 this season and has not fared well when stepping up in class.  The Dons have losses to Boise State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State.  Utah State is a team that is on Grand Canyon's level and better than both Boise State and Arizona State.

Utah State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 neutral court games.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Clemson/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5

The Memphis Tigers are really starting to play well under Penny Hardaway.  He always gets the top recruits so it can take some time for his team to gel.  But they have certainly shown those signs of gelling of late, beating VCU 85-80 as 2-point road favorites and upsetting Texas A&M 81-75 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.

Memphis has faced the 11th-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point.  The Tigers have only had two home games all season.  Now they finally get to play at home for the first time since November 17th, and they will be excited to do so.  They have unbeaten Clemson coming to town.

I think it's telling that Clemson is the unbeaten and ranked team here and actually is an underdog at unranked Memphis.  I think Memphis proves it is the better team here.  The Tigers are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* Baylor/Michigan State FOX ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3

The Baylor Bears are one of the best teams in the country and oddsmakers are failing to catch up to how good they are.  Baylor is 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  They beat Auburn and Florida on a neutral and now they will take down this overrated Michigan State team today.  Baylor ranks 2nd in adjusted offense and 44th in adjusted defense.

Michigan State is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS this season and consistently overvalued.  The Spartans were upset at home by James Madison as 16.5-point favorites in the opener, which would be a sign of things to come.  They lost by 9 to Duke on a neutral, by 6 to Arizona, by 13 at home to Wisconsin and also by 7 at Nebraska.

While Baylor ranks 1st in the country in 3-point percentage, Michigan State ranks 301st.  The Spartans shoot just 29.5% from 3 as a team.  That shooting discrepancy will come into play here in a big way and will be a key reason why the Bears run away with this one.

Michigan State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after making 88% of their free throws or better last game.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana State -13

Indiana State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Sycamores are 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road against Alabama.  They are outscoring opponents by 17.6 points per game on the season despite facing the 140th-ranked schedule.

Ball State is 8-2 but that has come against the 319th-ranked schedule.  Both losses came in two of their three true road games and both were in blowout fashion.  They lost 74-50 at Evansville and 90-64 at Arkansas-Little Rock.  Their lone road win came at Detroit by 3, and Detroit is 0-10 this season.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals.

Indiana State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a double-digit favorite.  The Sycamores are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Indiana State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall.  They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't.  They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield.  Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well.

Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter.

The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work.  He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks.  Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws.  He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter.

Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play.  He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders.  I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense.  The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints.

At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks.  But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well.  This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now.

The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well.  There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's.  I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now.

The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/Indiana CBS No-Brainer on Indiana +8

The Indiana Hoosiers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They should not be catching 8 points at home to the Kansas Jayhawks today in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere for the visitors.

Indiana is 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 65-53 win over Maryland as 2-point favorites.  The Jayhawks are a very motivated team coming off their worst loss of the season to Auburn on a neutral.  Their only other loss came to defending champion UConn on a neutral.

Kansas will be playing its first true road game of the season.  The Jayhawks got to host UConn and were fortunate to come away with a victory.  They are also coming off a 73-64 home win over Missouri as a 13-point favorite.  Off those two big wins recently, I don't think we get their best effort today, especially in their first road game.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season.  It is actually outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after losing by 18 or more points ATS last game, in non-conference games between two teams from power conferences are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a 'buy low' spot on the Hoosiers off that loss to Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* Georgia Southern/Ohio 2023 Bowl Opener on Georgia Southern -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Southern Eagles after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games to close out the season.  They played a brutal schedule down the stretch with three of their final four games on the road.  They had little to play for after clinching bowl eligibility but also being eliminated from conference title contention simultaneously.

Now I think we get a fully focused effort from the Eagles in this bowl game.  They lost to Buffalo by 2 in their bowl game last season to fall to 6-7 and a losing record.  They don't want that to be their fate again.  The Eagles will have all hands on deck for this game with the exception of possibly RB Jalen White, who is questionable with injury.  They didn't have any opt-outs, which is unheard of in today's college football.

The transfer portal really hit Ohio hard.  The Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Roarke (15 total TD), WR Miles Cross (47 receptions, 617 yards, 5 TD), RB Sieh Bangura (811 yards, 7 TD) and backup RB O'Shaan Allison (452 yards, 3 TD) on offense.  They also lose their best player on defense in LB Keye Thompson (94 tackles).  Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones earlier this season.  Backup QB CJ Harris led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, but he's out for the year, so they will be down to third-stringer Parker Navarro.  They are going to be without their top two QB's, their top two RB's and their top two WR's.  They won't be able to take advantage of what has been a suspect Georgia Southern defense.

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Ohio is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  It's only a four hour drive from Statesboro, Georgia to Conway, SC so the Eagles should have the majority of the fans at this game.  I can't see Ohio fans turning out to support a team that is losing all of its top playmakers on offense.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Knicks/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 231.5

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing C Mitchell Robinson to injury.  He is their eraser inside defensively but he doesn't provide much offensively.  The Knicks have had to go more small ball since losing him.

The OVER is 6-0 in Knicks last six games overall.  We have seen 230 or more combined points in five of those six games.  Now they face a Phoenix Suns team that finally has Durant, Booker and Beal healthy at the same time for the first time all season.  They are going to be an offensive juggernaut moving forward when these three are on the court at the same time.

Phoenix is 13-4 OVER as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 11-3 OVER vs. poor defensive teams allowing 46% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -9.5

I love the spot for the Bradley Braves.  They opened 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season, but have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Murray State and Akron plus a home loss to Indiana State, which looks to be one of the best mid-major teams in the entire country.

Now I know we are going to get a very inspired effort from Bradley tonight to try and end this skid.  The Braves take a big step down in class here against Cleveland State, and a double-digit blowout in their favor should be the result.

Cleveland State is 6-5 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season.  But the Vikings have gone 0-5 SU in all true/neutral road games this season.  They lost by 7 at Eastern Michigan, by 25 at Youngstown State, by 13 at St. Mary's and by 6 at Kent State.  And while Bradley has faced the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country, Cleveland State has faced the 216th.  This big difference in SOS is a big reason I'm on the Braves.

Bradley is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight non-conference home games.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the entire country.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge here after losing 122-119 to the Lakers on Wednesday.  Now they get to play the Lakers here two days later and go from 3.5-point dogs to 7.5-point dogs tonight.

While the Spurs will be motivated for revenge, the Lakers will have a hard time getting up emotionally to beat the Spurs by margin again tonight.  The Lakers just won the In-Season Tournament, and it's no surprise they are 0-2 ATS in their first two games out of the tournament as they just aren't as motivated to win these regular season games.  Don't be surprised if they lose outright tonight.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and playing competitive basketball with their last nine games all decided by 15 points or less, including six by single-digits.  Darvin Ham is 6-18 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic have a big rest advantage over the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Magic have had the last three days off while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-107 win over the Cavaliers last night.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.  They have had some guys banged up and playing through injury, so don't be surprised if they rest one or multiple starters tonight.

The Magic have been grossly undervalued all season especially of late.  The Magic are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are nearly at full strength and one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they will have an advantage over the Celtics when they go to their bench, which they will need to given how tired their starters are right now.

Orlando has absolutely owned Boston in recent meetings.  In fact, the Magic are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings as well with their lone SU loss coming by 6 points.  

Boston is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards OVER 258.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers travel to face the Washington Wizards.  The Pacers rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards rank 2nd in pace and 30th in defensive rating.

The Pacers are 18-5 OVER in all games this season while the Wizards are 15-8 OVER in all games.  These teams met on October 25th earlier this season and the result was a 143-120 victory for the Pacers and 263 combined points.  It will be more of the same tonight.

Indiana is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Indiana is 9-0 OVER in road games this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 OVER off a loss this season.  Washington is 9-0 OVER in its last nine home games after a combined score of 245 or more points in two consecutive games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are better than the Sacramento Kings this season and should not be underdogs to them, even on the road.  The Thunder are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS this season and outscoring their opponents by 7.6 points per game.

The Kings are 13-9 SU & 12-10 ATS this season and actually getting outscored by 0.6 points per game.  The Thunder rank 3rd in net rating (+7.6) which combines their offensive and defensive rating.  The Kings rank 20th (-0.5).

The Thunder are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They weren't fully healthy when they lost 105-98 in Sacramento in their first meeting this season.  I know they want revenge on the Kings, especially since they will be reminded that they have lost seven consecutive meetings in this series overall.  

That's why we will get a max effort from OKC tonight, and it will be good enough to pull off the outright upset.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been grossly undervalued all season.  They are 13-10 SU & 17-5-1 ATS this season.  They are the definition of team basketball with any of their five starters that can beat you on any given night, and also one of the best benches in the league.

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Nets are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning outright at Phoenix against a Suns team that had Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time for the first time all season.  But this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days, so they should still be pretty fresh.

There will be no letdown here for the Nets facing the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets have been grossly overvalued after winning that title last year.  They are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They will be without starter Kentavious-Caldwell Pope tonight, and their lack of depth this season is a big reason for their struggles.

The Nets are 8-1 ATS when the total is 230 or higher this season.  Asking the Nuggets to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge here after losing 113-120 in Boston on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later.  The Cavaliers will clearly be the more motivated team, while the Celtics will have a hard time getting up to beat this team again.

The Celtics aren't really blowing anyone out here of late.  They have just one win by more than 10 points in their last 12 games.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us in a letdown spot is asking too much.

Keep in mind the Celtics made 20 more free throws than the Cavaliers did in that last meeting and still only won by 7.  They got the benefit of the whistles in that game, and I don't see that being the case again.

Cleveland is actually 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Boston with just one loss by more than 9 points.  That one loss came by only 10 points as well.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Celtics pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after scoring 120 points or more in two consecutive games are 192-124 (60.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (Boston) - who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game in the month of December are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Creighton -12.5

The Creighton Bluejays got a wake up call with a bad loss to Colorado State on November 23rd.  That's a really good Colorado State team, but it refocused them and we have seen what they are capable of when locked in in their three games since.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 79-65 as 8-point road favorites at Oklahoma State, 89-60 as 4-point road favorites at Nebraska and 109-64 as 31-point home favorites over Central Michigan.  I fully expect another blowout win in Creighton's favor in this neutral court game actually called the Jack Jones Classic at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, NV.  No, I'm not the actual sponsor.

UNLV has been overvalued all season off to a 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS start this season.  The Rebels lost a lot in the transfer portal.  Their three wins this season have come against Stetson, Pepperdine and Akron.  They were actually upset 85-71 by Stetson as 20-point home favorites in their opener, a sign of things to come for this team.  They lost by 8 as 3-point dogs to FSU on a neutral and by 17 as 3-point favorites to Richmond on a neutral.  Now Creighton will be by far the best team they have faced this season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Doug McDermott is 172-133 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Creighton.  McDermott is 19-6 ATS following two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more as a head coach.  Bet Creighton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They have lost to the Pacers in both meetings this season and both were away from home.  That includes their 128-119 loss to the Pacers in the in-season tournament that knocked them out in the semifinals.  It's safe to say they want revenge, and we will get their best effort tonight as they get them at home for the first time this season.

The Pacers were in a letdown spot after losing to the Lakers in the finals of the in-season tournament, but unfortunately the Detroit Pistons haven't won a game in over a month and couldn't take advantage.  The Bucks will take advantage, and I think this is where we finally see the letdown for the Pacers, especially after just beating the Bucks a week ago.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them in this game as they were in the in-season tournament.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8

I love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They have a chance at quick revenge here after losing 114-116 to the Heat on Monday night.  Now they travel to Miami to face the Heat here just two days later on Wednesday.  I like them to stay within this inflated number at the very least and possibly pull off the upset.

The Heat are in no position to be laying 8 points to the Hornets right now.  They are without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Haywood Highsmith.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.  Adebayo is arguably their most important player, at least even with Jimmy Butler.

The Hornets have been playing some very competitive basketball with four of their last five games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They rarely get blown out by the Heat, either.  The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four were decided by 6 points or less with two outright upsets by the Hornets.

Miami is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Miami is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing against a bad team (25-40% winning percentage).  They Heat are the classic team that plays to the level of their competition, and they won't be motivated at all to beat the Hornets for a 2nd time in 3 days.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now and as long as De'Aaron Fox is on the court, they are going to be an OVER team.  They have scored at least 112 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angels Clippers are showing their offensive potential when fully healthy, which is the case right now.  They have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 132-127 win over Portland last night.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Kings.  They combined for 248 points in their lone meeting this season, and 255 and 351 points in their final two meetings last season.  The 351 was an OT game that still saw 306 points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Celtics OVER 223.5

Both the Cavaliers and Celtics are more OVER teams than people realize, especially when healthy.  The Celtics are loaded on offense with Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis and White.  They have all five guys healthy right now for basically the first time this season.  They rank 7th in offensive rating and are probably the most efficient offensive team in the NBA when healthy.

The Celtics just showed what they are capable of with a 133-123 victory over the Knicks last time out with a total of just 221.  This total has been set too low at 223.5 against the Cavaliers tonight as well.  Cleveland has more shooting this season with the additions of Strus and Niang, and they could get both Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert back tonight, who sat out last night but are upgraded to questionable today.  Those two combine for nearly 31 points per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Cleveland and Boston.  We have seen 227 or more combined points in all four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Monmouth +15

Monmouth has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  The Hawks are 5-4 SU & 6-2-1 ATS this season with just one loss by more than 15 points despite playing the 99th-toughest schedule of 362 teams in the country.  That came to Princeton, which is 9-1 this season.

The Hawks lost by 11 at George Mason as 11-point dogs, upset West Virginia by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs, upset Belmont by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and only lost by 4 at Cornell as a 12.5-point road dog.  I think they can hang with Seton Hall on the road tonight.

Seton Hall has been grossly overvalued here of late.  The Pirates have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 8 to USC at 4-point dogs on a neutral, lost by 13 to Iowa as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral, only beat Northeastern by 13 as 15-point home favorites, lost by 18 at Baylor as 11-point dogs and lost by 7 at home to Rutgers as 3.5-point favorites.

When you look at what Rutgers and Iowa have done recently, those losses look even worse.  Keep in mind they also only beat St. Peter's by 11 as 17-point favorites at home earlier this season.  The only three games they covered were against overmatched competition in Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner.  Monmouth is not overmatched here.  Bet Monmouth Tuesday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5

Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week.  He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week.  They are getting short on pass rushers.

The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week.  They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards.  Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked.  They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week.  But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game.  Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well.

The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week.  They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars.  And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week.

I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket.  Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins.  He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season.  The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.  The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.  Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  They took advantage of several drops by the Chargers and won 23-20 as 3-point home dogs.  They took advantage of more mistakes by the Lions in a 29-22 win as 8.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.

Last week they didn't have a letdown because they had the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field.  They promptly pulled off the 27-19 upset as 6-point home dogs.  The Chiefs' offense remained broken, and they lost two starters on defense and one on offense due to injury throughout the game.

This is the letdown spot.  Now the Packers go from 6-point home dogs to 7-point road favorites against the New York Giants.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Giants as they were the Lions and Chiefs.  You just can't get up for opponents this many games in a row.  This is a clear flat spot for the Packers, who are fat and happy right now and primed for that dreaded letdown.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants continue to get no respect from the books for a 3rd consecutive game.  The Giants pulled the 31-19 upset as 7.5-point road dogs to the Commanders two games ago.  They pulled the 10-7 upset home win over the Patriots as 4.5-point dogs in their last game.  And last week they had a bye to rest and recover and prepare to face the Packers.

Head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his players.  He will come up with the proper game plan to get his team ready.  Tommy DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for, completing 63% of his passes with a 7-to-3 TD/INT ratio in five games this season.  He has more TD passes (7) than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor (4) have combined for this season.  And the team loves him and is playing hard for him, which is what matters most.

The Giants have a pretty good defense and have held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, 271 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  They will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Jordan Love and company.  Love and WR Christian Watson were forming a great chemistry, but Watson suffered a hamstring injury late in the win over the Chiefs and is doubtful to play this week.  Also doubtful is RB Aaron Jones, and TE Luke Musgrave remains out.  The Watson injury in particular is massive because the Packers have a bunch of no-name receivers outside he and Doubs.

The Giants have a healthy Saquon Barkley to deploy against this shaky Packers run defense and take some pressure off DeVito.  The Packers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in four consecutive games.  They allow 136 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on the season, making them one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  They are 30th in rushing yards per game allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that allow 130 or more rushing yards per game.  Plays against road favorites (Green Bay) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 335-370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers will get more of a fight from the rested Giants than they bargained for Monday night.  It's time to 'sell high' on Green Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall since losing Zach LaVine to injury.  It's no surprise nobody wants to trade for this guy.  The Bulls are playing better team basketball now and it is paying off.

The Bulls upset the Bucks 120-113 as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Pelicans 124-118 as 3-point dogs, crushed the Hornets 111-100 as 5-point favorites and rolled to a 121-112 victory at San Antonio as 2-point favorites.  Now the Bulls are catching too many points against the Bucks again tonight.

The Bucks will have questionable motivation here after being on the big stage and losing in the semifinals to the Pacers in the in-season tournament in their last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated here in their first game back from the tournament, which will help the Bulls keep this one close.

The Bulls are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks which have all six been decided by 13 points or fewer, so they tend to take the Bucks to the wire every time.  Billy Donovan is 42-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as a head coach.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Hawks OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in Atlanta home games this season where they are scoring 125.3 points per game and allowing 126.1 points per game with an average of 251.4 combined points per game.

The Hawks and 76ers just combined for 239 points last game in a game Trae Young sat out with an illness.  But Young returns tonight and he is the key to them being an OVER team.  Now they take on a Denver Nuggets team that recently got Jamal Murray back, and he is the key to them being an OVER team when he's on the court.

Mike Malone is 67-38 OVER off a home loss as the coach of Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -120

I like the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 111-121 loss in Cleveland on November 6th just five days ago.  Now the Magic get the Cavaliers at home this time around.  

The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten the Lakers by 19, the Bucks by 15, the Nuggets by 5 and the Celtics by 17 at home this season.  So it's not like they are beating up on a bunch of bad teams.

The Cavaliers will be missing two key players tonight in Evan Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) and Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG).  They should not be getting this much respect from the books without these two.  The Magic have won 9 consecutive home games and they make it 10 in a row tonight.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

25* Eagles/Cowboys NBC SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas -3

My favorite play last week was the 49ers over the Eagles.  One of my favorite plays this week is the Cowboys over the Eagles for many of the same reasons.  Just like the 49ers wanted revenge from their playoff loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys want revenge from their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Just like the 49ers had the rest advantage on the Eagles after playing on Thursday while the Eagles played on Monday the previous week, the Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday while the Eagles were in that war with the 49ers.  In fact, the Eagles have been in several wars here recently and don't have anything left in the tank for the Cowboys.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They put in a lot against the 49ers last week in their 42-19 defeat.  They just went to OT against the Bills the week prior in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 5th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills.  They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers.  They also banged up and injured, particularly on defense.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until the last two weeks.  Well, the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders five games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys four games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs three games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills two weeks ago despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.  They were outgained by 123 yards by the 49ers last week.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in five consecutive games and somehow managed to win four of them.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  Their luck ran out last week against the 49ers, and it won't come back this week against a Cowboys team that is fresher, healthier and simply wants it more.

The numbers certainly show the Cowboys are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play this season, while the Eagles are only outgaining opponents by 11 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Dallas should be more than a 3-point home favorite when you consider they are the better team with all those rest and healthy advantages to boot.

Dallas is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.2 points per game.  The Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season.  They have scored 40, 41, 37, 37 and 29 points in their last five home meetings with the Eagles while going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in those five home meetings.  Betting Dallas team total over 27.5 is also worth a bet this week.  

Dallas is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards per game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Dallas.  The Cowboys were looking ahead to this game against Philadelphia and still managed to beat the Seahawks 41-35 last week.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Bills/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +3

I love the spot for the Buffalo Bills this week.  They are desperate for a win sitting at 6-6 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  The Bills got their bye week at the perfect time last week to give them a chance to get healthy and rested to make a run here down the stretch.  It starts with an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs this week.

The Bills are one of the best 6-6 teams in NFL history when you look at their numbers.  They are actually outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game, outgaining opponents by 64 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.  They have simply had poor luck in close games with all six losses coming by 6 points or fewer.

The Chiefs have been through a bit of a gauntlet the last three weeks.  They lost 21-17 at home to Philadelphia after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead three weeks ago.  They needed to come back from 14-0 down to beat the Raiders two weeks ago on the road.  And last week they lost 27-19 at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the rested Bills.

The Chiefs suffered some key injuries in that loss to the Packers last week.  They lost LB Drue Tranquill to a concussion, S Bryan Cook to an ankle and T Donovan Smith to a neck injury.  The first two almost certainly will be out, while Smith is highly questionable.  That's a big blow to their defense, which was already missing LB Nick Bolton.  That defense got gashed by the Packers for 27 points and 382 total yards.

This Kansas City offense is broken, which is why the Chiefs aren't nearly as good as they have been in year's past.  They average just 22.9 points per game this season.  That's a far cry from the 30-plus they have been averaging since Mahomes took over at QB.  It's late enough in the season to realize this offense just isn't going to get fixed because there is a lack of playmakers on the outside other than Travis Kelce, and teams have been scheming to take him away.  The Bills will be doing the same.

The Bills are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 25 points or more.  Buffalo is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games off a road loss.  Plays on road teams (Buffalo) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 91-38 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 years when the line is +3 to -3.  

Buffalo is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Kansas City.  Sean McDermott is 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers are catching too many points against the Texas A&M Aggies today.  Memphis just reloads under Penny Hardaway and has been impressive this season.  The Tigers are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming to Villanova and Ole Miss.

The Tigers have been through the gauntlet once against testing themselves in the non-conference with the 28th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  Their highlights have been a 70-55 upset road win at Missouri as 3-point dogs, a 71-67 upset win over Michigan on a neutral as 1-point dogs and a 84-79 upset win over Arkansas on a neutral as 1-point dogs.  They ran out of gas against Villanova playing for a 3rd consecutive day.  They only lost by 3 at unbeaten Ole Miss, and they won by 5 at VCU as 2-point favorites.

Texas A&M already has two losses this season as well with a 96-89 loss to FAU on a neutral and a 59-47 road loss at Virginia as 3-point dogs.  They played close games against Ohio State, Oreal Roberts and Iowa State that were all decided by 8 points or fewer, and I think this one is decided by 8 points or fewer as well.

Memphis is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Tigers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Texas A&M is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Penny Hardaway is 28-15 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Memphis.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

20* Colorado/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 16.5 points, Norchad Omier averaging 16.1 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.5 points and 4.1 assists.

Bensley Joseph (9.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a Swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.8 points and 4.4 rebounds.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road at Kentucky.  Now they are on a neutral where they have thrived in recent seasons making deep runs into the NCAA Tournament.  They take on a Colorado team that is getting too much respect from the books.

Colorado is 6-2 this season with 5-0 at home against weak competition and 1-2 in road/neutral games.  They only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites on a neutral, and lost by 5 at Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs.  The Buffaloes have some of the biggest home/road splits in all of college basketball for years.  This will be an early body clock game for them tipping at 2:00 EST, and they aren't used to playing this early in the day.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a win by 10 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a home game.  The Hurricanes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Miami Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears Sunday.  They will be out for revenge from blowing a 26-14 lead with under 3 minutes to go in a 31-26 loss to the Lions just three weeks ago.  The Bears are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and coming out of their bye week.  This team is trending in the right direction and primed for a big effort Sunday off the bye.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.  It is tough for them to get margin when they can't stop anyone.

The weather is going to help us cash this ticket on the Bears.  The forecast is calling for 20 MPH winds and better than a 50% chance of precipitation.  The Bears rely much more on running the football than the Lions do.  Jared Goff has not been good outdoors in bad weather in his career.  The weather will limit this usually potent Detroit passing attack.

The Lions are going to be forced to run the football more than they want to, and when they try they are going to be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  The allow just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  The Bears have been playing great defense for weeks since getting healthy and trading for Montez Sweat.  That is a big reason they are undervalued, plus the fact that Fields has been better than most realize.

The Lions lost their two centerpieces to injury last week against the Saints.  They will be without DT Alim McNeill and C Frank Ragnow.  Their losses hurt this team more than most realize as McNeill is a great run stuffer and also had 5 sacks this season.  Many feel he is the heart and soul of the defense.  Ragnow is a tremendous run blocker and makes all the calls on the offensive line.  Goff will be very uncomfortable without him.

Detroit is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Lions are a tired team playing four straight one-score games the last four weeks.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bears, who are off their bye and ready for revenge in the elements at Soldier Field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 43.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 79, 57, 51 and 61 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.  I get there is expected to be some weather, but I still like the OVER in this one.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.

It will be tough for the Bears to tame this Detroit offense for four quarters.  The Lions are loaded with weapons and a good rushing attack.  They average 27.3 points per game, 400.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 57, 61 and 61 combined points.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Lions are 7-1 OVER off a win this season.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards per game.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 39

The first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season saw just 29 combined points in a 16-13 road victory by the Falcons.  The score from that first meeting is providing us some line value to go OVER the total in the 2nd meeting here with a total below the key number of 40.

That first meeting should have seen nearly 50 combined points.  Desmond Ridder fumbled three times when the Falcons were in scoring position, including twice at the Tampa Bay 1-yard line.  That's a minimum of 17 extra points they should have had but didn't get.  The Bucs also had two turnovers and red zone struggles.  These teams combined for 730 total yards with the Falcons with 401 and the Bucs with 329.  Both teams moved the ball with plenty of ease in that contest.

The difference in the rematch is now this is going to be on a fast track inside the dome in Atlanta.  Looking back at this head-to-head history, it's easy to see there's value with the OVER when looking at previous games played in Atlanta.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 43 or more points in 10 consecutive meetings in Atlanta, including 47 or more in nine of those 10.  They have averaged 54.8 combined points per game in those 10 games, which is more than 15 points higher than this total.  They have combined for 39 or more points in 13 consecutive meetings in Atlanta as well, making for a 12-0-1 system backing this OVER pertaining to this 39-point total.

More key differences in the rematch are that both defenses are banged up and missing key players.  The Falcons lost their most important defender in DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL.  Last week they lost their top CB AJ Terrell to a concussion, and it's unlikely he'll be able to clear protocols in time for this one.  That's bad news for the Falcons not having him against Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans, who just topped 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th consecutive season last week.  Only Jerry Rice has more with 11.  Starting MLB Nate Landman and starting NT David Onyemata are both questionable as well.

The Bucs have all kinds of injuries at linebacker.  They were without five linebackers by the end of their game against the Panthers last week.  Lavonte David may return this week, but they are thin at the position.  NT Vita Vea missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, and their top CB in Jamel Dean remains out.  

What was previously a great Tampa Bay run defense now has shown some holes the last two weeks.  The Colts rushed for 155 yards on them and the Panthers rushed for 133 on them the last two games.  Now they have to try and tame one of the best rushing attack in the NFL in the Falcons, who average 135 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

I think Atlanta's low-scoring game with the Jets last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played outdoors and the Falcons were just trying not to make mistakes because they knew the Jets couldn't move the football on them with Tim Boyle at QB.  It has bene a different story at home for the Falcons this season.  The Falcons average 23.0 points per game, 380.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home on the fast track.  They also allow 20.5 points per game at home, averaging 43.5 combined points per game in their six home games this season.

The Bucs allow 23.8 points per game, 383.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Their offense has been better on the road, averaging 22.5 points per game away from home.  Tampa Bay road games are averaging 46.3 combined points per game this season.  Given all the defensive injuries for both teams and all these numbers, this 39-point total is clearly too low this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +10

UC-Irvine is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They pulled the 70-60 upset as 12.5-point dogs at USC.  They did lose by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at Utah State as 6.5-point dogs, so they have been through the gauntlet.  They have faced the 25th-toughest schedule in the entire country and won't be phased by San Diego State.

The Aztecs came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  San Diego State is 7-2 SU but 2-6 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  They were upset by Grand Canyon last time out.  They have no business being double-digit favorites here.

UC-Irvine is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Anteaters are 35-12 ATS in their last 47 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* Pacers/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 241.5

It's no surprise that both semifinal games of the In-Season Tournament went UNDER the total.  These teams are actually playing defense in these win-or-go-home games.  It also helps that there's $500,000 on the line to each player on the winning team.

More defense will be played tonight in the championship game between the Pacers and Lakers with both teams desperate to win this tournament and collect that money.  I've been backing Pacers overs all season, but now is the time to take a Pacers under.

The Lakers rank 7th in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating this season.  They are the type of team that will slow it down to play at the pace they are comfortable with and not let Indiana dictate what they do.  The Lakers have held the Pelicans to 89 points, the Suns to 103 and the Rockets to 97 in their last three games coming in, all three going well UNDER the total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Indiana) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60-75) are 51-13 (79.7%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* UCLA/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 127.5

Both Villanova and UCLA are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Villanova ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted defense.  UCLA ranks 341st in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense.  

The UNDER is 6-1 in all UCLA games this season.  Now they could be without G Sebastian Mack (14.7 PPG), who left their last game with a toe injury and is questionable to play in this one.

Villanova is 5-5 UNDER but would be 7-3 UNDER if not for overtime.  Now the Wildcats are in real trouble offensively without their best player in Justin Moore (13.3 PPG), who suffered a knee injury in the OT loss to Kansas State last time out.  He won't be available today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* St. Mary's/Colorado State CBSSN ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's +5.5

A lot was expected of St. Mary's coming into the season.  But after a slow start with some mixed results against a brutal schedule that ranks 40th in the country, I think the time is now to 'buy low' on the Gaels.  They have a chance to get a signature win here against a Colorado State team that is overvalued after a 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.

We saw Colorado State fail to live up to expectations last game, only beating Denver 90-80 as 20.5-pint favorites.  They have been through the gauntlet with Creighton, Colorado and Washington in their three games prior.  They won't have much left in the tank for St. Mary's, especially since they are missing two of their best players.

Colordado State is without Jalen Lake (7.7 PPG) and Josiah Strong (8.5 PPG), who both got injured recently and aren't expected to return until January.  The Rams will be short-handed until then, and now is a good time to fade them especially since they are getting a lot of hype with their unbeaten record.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 home games following three or more consecutive overs.  The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after forcing 11 or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games.  St. Mary's is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They have six home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

This won't be a home game but it might as well be played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  They take on an Arkansas team that just hasn't fare well at all away from home.  The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season.  They only beat Stanford by 3 as 6.5-point favorites, were upset by 5 by Memphis and were crushed by 15 by North Carolina.  The Razorbacks are getting too much respect for their recent upset home win over Duke.

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Razorbacks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. explosive offensive teams scoring 84 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Grand Canyon +5.5

Grand Canyon is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Antelopes are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  They beat San Diego State and San Francisco already this season.  And now they will give Liberty all they can handle.

Liberty is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers from what they did against some soft competition.  When they stepped up in class they lost 83-58 to Florida Atlantic and didn't look like they belonged at all.  They followed that up with a 76-67 upset loss to Charleston.

Liberty is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games with a total set of 140 to 149.9 points.  Grand Canyon is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bryce Drew is 16-7 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Antelopes.  Drew is 9-2 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game as their head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Saturday.

15* Indiana/Auburn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Hoosiers have been impressive this season.  They are 7-1 with their only loss coming against defending national champion Connecticut.  They have been very impressive in their last three games beating Harvard by 13 as 7-point favorites on a neutral, topping Maryland by 12 as 2-point home favorites and upsetting Michigan 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs.

Auburn is 5-2 this season but none of the five wins were that impressive as they came against overmatched competition.  They also lost 69-64 at Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite and have been favored all seven games, so they have been overvalued.  They lost 88-82 to Baylor on a neutral in the opener.

This one will be played on a neutral as well.  Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games away from home following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Pearl is 4-12 ATS after forcing the last opponent to commit 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Kings/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -120

The Phoenix Suns will be without three starters in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen tonight.  Devin Booker is good, but he's not good enough to beat the Sacramento Kings on his own.  The Kings should be much bigger favorites tonight given those injuries for the Suns.

The Kings are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Sacramento is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a home loss.  Phoenix is 1-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Thunder OVER 235.5

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 237 points in all seven meetings.  They have averaged 254.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 19 points more than this 235.5-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 240.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are scoring 117.2 points per game on 48.7% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting this season.

Now they face a red hot Nets team that is scoring 123.0 points per game in winning six of their last seven games overall.  The Wizards have scored at least 120 points in five of their last six games, and they have allowed 130 or more points in five of their last six as well.

Washington is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Washington is 8-1 OVER following an ATS win this season.  The Wizards are 8-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/76ers OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The 76ers rank 2nd in offensive rating and are scoring 120.6 points per game this season.  The Hawks are scoring 122.6 points per game and allowing 122.3 points per game.

The 76ers won 126-116 for 242 combined points in their first meeting with the Hawks this season.  And neither team shot the lights out as the Hawks shot 44.9% and the 76ers 48.9%.  So we have some room for improvement here on the shooting front in the rematch for both teams.

Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Philadelphia is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 Friday night home games.  The 76ers are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games vs. terrible defensive teams allowing 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 229.5

Teams are trying a lot harder on defense in these tournament games, especially these winner-take-all games.  We saw that last time out with the Lakers as they beat the Suns 106-103 for just 209 combined points.  I think we see it even more now that we are down to the semifinals.

The semifinals will be playing on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV.  These players aren't familiar with this court and the shooting sight lines will be different for them.  It will take some time to adjust, and I think that will help us cash this UNDER ticket as well.

The Lakers rank 9th in defensive rating and just 24th in offensive rating.  They have been much better defensively since getting healthy, and the same can be said for the Pelicans.  The Lakers have held their last two opponents to 103 and 97 points.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Pelicans have allowed 114 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games overall.

New Orleans is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 games with a total of 230 or higher.  The Pelicans are 23-11 UNDER in their last 34 games when playing on two days' rest.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPNU No-Brainer on UNDER 156

The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the best defensive teams in the country since TJ Otzelberger took over.  They rank 9th in the entire country in adjusted defense to this point.  They don't allow anything in transition ranking 340th in average length of opponents possessions.  The Cyclones will control the tempo playing at home.

Iowa's offense has huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffery.  They don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home.  That was in display against Purdue last time out as the Boilermakers held them to just 68 points.  The Cyclones will have similar success in slowing them down.  Iowa State also has inconsistent shooting again this season.

The last two meetings between Iowa and Iowa State have seen just 131 and 126 combined points.  Iowa is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after winning two of its last three games.  Iowa State is 26-11 UNDER in its last 37 non-conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.