10* FREE PLAY OF THE DAY
Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Even though Baltimore has been pretty bad this season and got very lucky against Pittsburgh, Cleveland is still worse. Just in a scheduling stand point, the Ravens have the clear edge in this one. Baltimore played last Thursday so they have the extra time to rest/prepare for this game. Cleveland played in San Diego and has to travel all the way across the country for their second straight road game. I don't see Baltimore taking it easy or looking passed the Browns since they could very easily be 0-4. Being 1-3 now and getting an impressive win here will allow them to get right back into it. Look for the Ravens to get a nice division win at home Sunday.
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FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 10-10-15
UNDER 70 Oregon/Washington State (CFB)
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Baylor laying eight points in the pin ball Big 12 Conference is nothing. The Bears can put up two scores in less than three minutes.
But eight points in a rugged Big Ten Conference matchup of Northwestern-Michigan definitely means something. These are the two best defenses in the country.
So taking eight points with Northwestern is huge. Heck, the over/under is just 35 points.
The Wildcats are surrendering only seven points a game! They also are fifth in total defense.
Jim Harbaugh is doing a fine job with the Wolverines. But Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is good, too. Northwestern is 5-0, including 2-0 as underdogs. The Wildcats have knocked off Stanford, Duke and shut out Minnesota last Saturday.
I'm not overly fond of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, who has more interceptions than touchdowns. Harbaugh relies on a ground attack that ranks 35th in the country averaging 201.4 yards. Rudock is more a game manager.
But Northwestern has a strong defensive front seven and will be keying on Michigan's rushing game. The Wildcats rank 26th in the nation in rush defense holding foes to 117.4 yards per game on the ground. I don't believe Rudock can make enough plays to push Michigan to more than a field goal victory - if the Wolverines even win. This has been a real tight series. Michigan won, 10-9, last year. The teams played triple overtime two years ago. None of the past three games in the series have been decided by more than seven points during regulation.
Northwestern should be fully focused. I'm not sure I can say that about Michigan as the Wolverines host arch-rival Michigan State next week.
Look for the draw in this match that takes place early on Sunday morning in Italy Series B. Trapani has draws in 4 of its last 5 matches. These two are #10 and #7 in their league. Hope to see 1-1.
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*3 Star Free Pick* The Arizona State Sun Devils offense got things going a bit last week against a good UCLA defense. This week they get to take on a very weak Colorado defense. Colorado doesn't have enough depth to play good defense for a full game, and that showed in their home loss last week against an Oregon team that was very banged up. Oregon ran at will on them in the second half. Todd Graham's Arizona State team has put up 51, 54. and 38 points on Colorado in their last three meetings. Colorado's offense should get some scoring chances here as well. Both teams play at a quick tempo and that should lead to a game that gets into the 60's. Take the over.
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My own adjusted power rankings suggest that Duke (4-1) on a neutral Field should be close to a 3 TD favorite vs Army (1-4). After adjusting for the Black Knights home filed advantage at West Point I feel a line based only on power rankings should be closer to -17 . The line we are getting from the books on the opening (-11.5), takes into considerations a few other factors as well, which includes the Knights four losses which have come by an average of 4 points. After adjusting for variables and possible outcomes, based solely on both teams bringing in their A games, I feel ,we actually have value taking the traveling Devils. A fair amount of sharp money also agreed with my assessment, because at the time of this write up, the line was at -12 to -12.5. Ok guys, I know backing big away chalk consistently seems square, but I don't make a habit of laying money down on DD road favorites, and I respect Army's play to this point in the season. But my other considerations on this conservative investment outlay are based on both my own personal line assessments and match-nup discrepancies, and Dukes defensive ability to deal with the Black Knights triple option attack. Duke has the ability to score in bunches despite of early season struggles , after being tested hugely vs Boston College and Northwestern defenses that are two of the best in the nation. After those tribulations, going against this Army D, will be like a walk in the park. The Knights from the outside looking in , and from a basic statistical stand point look fairly average on defense, but a closer look , shows The Black Knights rank 80th in opponent yards per play, 84th in yards per pass, and 101st in opponent completion percentage. With that said, I expect Dukes aerial attack to flourish and find striking targets downfield on a consistent basis. On the flip side Duke's defense has played smash mouth ball allowing an average of only 10 points per game, which is not good news for a Army offense that only showed a heart beat in games vs Fordham and E. Michigan. Things Im betting get bad here for Army because of their inability to throw down field which will allow Dukes underated LB monsters to stack the box.
With this game prior to a bye week, Im betting the Devils leave everything on the field and come away with a bigger margin of victory than expected.
Projected score: Duke 31 Army 13
Play on Duke 1/2 unit comp selection
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The Free NCAAF System Club Play is on California + the 7.5 points. Game 379 at 10:00 eastern. The Golden Bears were nearly caught last week by Washington St. looking ahead to this one. CAL fits a solid week 6 system that plays on teams taking 5 or more points that are undefeated. Cal has covered 8 of 9 as dogs of 8 or less. These teams look pretty even on paper and Utah may not be able to sustain the momentum of hanging up over 60 on Oregon. Take the points with California. On Saturday its the deepest card of the year as we have Monster plays in College Football Led by the 100% SEC Game Of The Year, BIG 10 AND BIG 12 Games of the Month All from Perfect systems dating to 1980. Football ranked #1 last year and is off to a fast start. MLB Playoffs are cashing big daily. Jump on now and put the most powerful plays in the industry on your side. For the free play we will take the 7-8 points with California. RV
The Michigan State Spartans enter this contest with a 0-5 ATS record. Despite being favored in all five of their games, they have only out-gained the opposition by just 11 yards overall this season. This is a classic look ahead game for Michigan State because they have in state rival Michigan on deck for next week. The Spartans have dealt with overwhelming injuries this season as they come into this one missing a handful of their top players. Rutgers comes in off a bye last week so they will have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. The Scarlet Knights have spent the past couple weeks hearing about how they can't compete with the bigger CFB programs. Rutgers starting quarterback Chris Laviano has completed over 70 percent of his passes overall. The Scarlet Knights will play this game like it's their National Championship and keep this game within the generous number. Free Play Rutgers plus the points.
1* Free Play Packers.
The Rams surprised everyone with their outright SU win over the Cardinals last week, but if this team has shown anything this season, it's been it's unbelievable inconsistency from week to week. After beating division rival Seattle in its opener, St. Louis would then promptly lose to a mediocre Redskins team in Week 2 and now has to face Aaron Rodgers and the 4-0 SU/ATS Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. There's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Rams after another tough divisional win and note that from a trend based standpoint, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as St. Louis is just 1-5 SU its last six vs. the Pack and only 4-9 SU its last 13 on the road (also just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall), while Green Bay is 5-0 SU its last five at home and 7-2 SU its last nine vs. the Rams at Lambeau. We're going to lay the points as we expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to their bye the following week, followed by back-to-back "cream puffs" at home vs. the Browns and 49'ers respectively; consider a second look at GREEN BAY in this one.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #371 Take Miami Hurricanes over Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Doc’s Sports is coming off a free pick winner in Week 5 of the college football season and expect more of the same this weekend. We full feature top plays on Saturday and Sunday and you can get all of the action right here. Just do not believe Florida State is that good this season. Miami is coming off a disappointing loss to Cincinnati last Thursday but despite that I am still a big fan of Brad Kaaya and the offense of Miami. The visitor is 7-2 straight-up in this series over the last 9 game. 11 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a touchdown of less and if that holds true again we will win no matter who comes out on top. The Seminoles have yet to be tested this season and they are just not as explosive without Jameis Winston who bailed them out of numerous games last season. Take the points in this rivalry game.
Temple over Tulane...Saturday College Football
The Greenies (2-2) are traveling after playing (45-31) UCF who did not have their starting QB in the lineup. The third string UCF QB threw three touches in the 4th quarter when the game was over! We note, Tulane can not play with Temple (4-0) at the line of scrimmage. In addition, inconsistent Temple QB P. J. Walker should have a huge day against the shaky secondary of the visitor. In fact, the Tulane passing defensive efficiency is ranked #93 in the latest NCAA listings. SOS...Tulane played two class "B" units this season in Duke and Georgia Tech losing by a combined score of 102-17. The Owls show 6-0 ATS after back-to-back SU wins vs. non-conference types. Good Luck!
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FREE CFB play Saturday 10-10-15
Fresno State +12 (CFB)
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FREE CFB play Saturday 10-10-15
Hawaii -1 1/2 (CFB)
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For some reason the betting public continues to like the Eagles, despite them showing nothing that would indicate them being worthy of a wager. Both teams come into this matchup at 1-3. The Saints knocked off the Cowboys in overtime on Sunday night, while the Eagles fell by 3 to the Redskins. There is a huge difference in the NFL between being 2-3 and 1-4. The team that ends up falling to 1-4 after this contest will be looking to next year, with their season essentially over. The team that wins and ends up at 2-3 is still very much alive. All indications point to the Saints at least covering the number here.
Drew Brees is back from injury, obvious though very crucial to a play on the Saints here. This offense is built around Brees. He makes everyone around him better, especially his receivers. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead should have big games against this Philadelphia secondary. Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller lead the rushing attack. Spiller has also given New Orleans another dimension to their offense, a back that can catch and run. I expect Spiller’s role in the Saints passing game to increase as the season progresses.
Chip Kelly isn’t having near the amount of success with his offense as he would have hoped for coming into the season. One of the biggest reasons is DeMarco Murray isn’t being utilized as much as he should. Murray was the NFL’s leading rusher last season and broke Emmitt Smith’s record for the most rushing yards in Cowboy’s franchise history. He needs more touches for this team to be successful, plain and simple. Because of the questionable play calling, Philly is averaging just 70 yards per game on the ground. Murray carried the ball just 8 times for 36 yards in their loss to the Redskins. Not a recipe for success. Take the points with the team that’s in the better current form. Take the Saints.
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SATURDAY BIG 10 FREE PLAY
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Wisconsin at Nebraska
Well low and behold when my odds tracker lit up with this week’s opening lines late Sunday, I feel out of my chair damn near it when I saw the Huskers were favored against Wisconsin. I must admit I am partial to Nebraska, I went there, they are my Alma mater, and both my children within 25 minutes of birth in Lincoln Nebraska, had Husker stocking caps on in the hospital nursery. You see in the land of Husker Nation, you are born a Husker, you have no choice. Well it is not the 1990’s anymore where Nebraska dominated the college landscape and Tom Osborne is gone, Frank Solich is winning MAC Divisions titles, Bill Callahan is coaching Offensive Lines in the NFL and Bo Pelini is in Youngstown Ohio wondering if Husker Nation Misses him now! Did I mention both Solich and Pelini were fired after 9 win seasons? Being a spoiled Husker Nation has caught up with Nebraska fans and now they have a lame duck coach and have to live with a bad hire and one of the worst defenses in college football.
Nebraska’s love affair with Mike Riley is over. The Huskers lost to Big 10 bottom dweller Illinois last week, again late in the game, and again more of a coaching debacle than anything else. They say rain hampered the Husker’s offensive attack. No, the coaching hampered Nebraska’s attack. You come up against a team who was allowing 6 yards per carry, and you open up the game throwing it with a QB that is very inconsistent throwing, and did I mention this was Nebraska, home of the running back and they have 2 good ones in the fold. So if coaching and the rain hampered Nebraska last week, it will be the Badgers 11th ranked defense that will hamper them this week.
Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska last year and Melvin Gordon ran wild for 408 yards in that game and was pulled early to call off the embarrassment. Wisconsin has issues of their own as Iowa beat them last week with some defense and quite frankly a better team, but there is no way Nebraska should be laying points to anyone right now in the Big 10, the play calling is deplorable, the coaching is iffy at best, and while Husker Nation will be strong in Lincoln on Saturday and I will personally be in the crowd, but at days end I prefer a fat wallet and deflated ego versus betting the same ol Husker Tradition at home and losing money. Bottom line is Wisconsin lost to a good Big 10 team who is undefeated and ranked and Nebraska lost to unranked bottom feeder from the Big 10. Nothing more, nothing less.
Wisconsin has beaten Nebraska 129-55 the last 2 times they played and they are catching points? Did I mention you may see Wisconsin throwing the ball around a bit more than usual in this game as the Huskers rank 128th in college football in passing yards allowed and 102nd overall on defense, and again they are laying points?
Give me the Badgers +1
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Play on Game #362 Tennessee Vols (Saturday,3:30 PM EST )
Georgia comes into this game beat up physically and demoralized after losing to Alabama last week. That was a game that the school really wanted to win. Now, they have to travel to Knoxville to face a Tennessee Vols team that is in dire need of a win and with a bye week on deck, they will be fully focused on this game.
The Vols come into this game only 2-3 on the season. They have had a double digit lead in all three of their losses (vs. Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas). So this is a team that is VERY close to being 5-0, but instead is 2-3. If they were 5-0, then the Vols would be at least a 3 point favorite here. But instead, we are catching them getting points at home getting great value. Butch Jones is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with the Vols.
Looking at last year's game, the Vols almost upset Georgia on the road losing 35-32. This is a much improved Vols team this season from when that game was played last year in Week 4. Worley was the QB for the Vols at the time. Joshua Dobbs gives the Vols much more flexibility and chances to make explosive plays with his legs. Also the Vols offensive line is a lot better. Through 5 games, the Vols have only allowed 10 sacks. At this time last year, the quarterback was getting clobbered at a record pace.
Georgia was +16 in turnover margin last year. It is hard to duplicate such success 2 years in a row. This season they are -even- in turnover margin.
The Georgia quarterback Grayson Lambert is making only his 2nd career road start in the SEC. His first was @ Vandy a few weeks ago and Georgia won 31-14, but Lambert was only 11-for-21 for 116 yards. Against Alabama last week, Lambert was 10-for-24 for 86 yards only. He best games this season were vs. Southern, Louisiana Monroe, and South Carolina. Point being Lambert is not ready to step up vs. stiffer competition. Nick Chubb can't do it all himself either.
In Georgia's only road game this season, they beat Vanderbilt, 31-14, but needed a pick 6 and a punt return for a touchdown to beat them. The offense only scored 17 points. Also a terrible Vandy pass offense had 295 yards passing against the Bulldogs defense which is another red flag.
Special teams: The Bulldogs special teams is way down this season. They rank last in the nation in kickoff returns (14 yards per return). They rank 119th in punting at only 32 yards per punt and they also rank 87th and 85th in punt and kickoff coverage. Tennessee is ranked #1 in kickoffs returns and #6 in punting. Big Special Teams advantage for the Vols.
Look for a motivated Tennessee team to come out of town with a cover this Saturday vs. a Georgia team that is beat up and still trying to get over their embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
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I'm recommending a play on Ga Tech on Saturday afternoon. Big win for the Tigers last week, holding on for a 24-22 victory over previously unbeaten Notre Dame. Time to make the adjustment for Ga Tech's option attack. The Yellow Jackets have had little trouble piling up yards against the Clemson defense over the last few meetings and will be in an ornery mood after dropping three straight games, falling out of the rankings. Tech squashed the Tigers, 28-6 last season, so Clemson will have the revenge angle, but they're off back-to-back high intensity, close wins over Louisville and the Irish. The Tigers gave up over 430 yards to Notre Dame in the win last weekend. Ga Tech's ground game has been below par during their losing skid, but again, they're not only catching Clemson at the right time, but have the confidence knowing they have moved the ball against this stop unit in recent meetings. Ga Tech is on a 9-3 ATS run, overall, while the Tigers have failed to cover six straight ACC contests. I'm recommending a play on Georgia Tech plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights
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Play - Tennessee Vols.
Edges - Volunteers: 7-2 ATS in this series, including 3-0 the last three. Bulldogs: 0-6 ATS in SEC games off a loss. With Georgia head coach Mark Richt a rotten 3-14 ATS in his career in games off a double-digit loss, we recommend a 1* play on Tennessee. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Chip's NCAA 5-Pack of Best Bet Winners
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Saturday, Oct 10
Oklahoma at Texas 12:00 ET
Longhorns (+) over Sooners- The Longhorns program is in desperate shape as Charlie Strong's club has more fight in the locker room then they do on the field. At 1-4 Texas is off to their worst start in 60 years and things don't look like they are getting any better. The University has already fired A.D. Steve Patterson and work has it that Strong may be gone soon enough. But, this game is the 'Red River' rivalry and is always the biggest game on the schedule for both clubs. Why take Texas here well Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS as conference favorites of 10 or more and the 'Horns are 6-3-1 ATS in this matchup in the last 10. Take TEXAS!
Chip's NCAA 3-Pack of Best Bet Winners
Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion SWEPT (3-0) with his Top-3 releases last Saturday including his Vegas Insider (5-0) winner Arizona State (+13) 38-23 OUTRIGHT over UCLA. Chip is now 24-6 80% with his last 30 'Highest-Rated' Vegas Insider Best Bet releases. Chip is a 5-time College Handicapping Champion and Saturday he has 3-NCAA Best Bet winners at a discounted price. Receive his Famous Megabucks Best Bet winner between Georgia Tech and Clemson, his Power Play Best Bet between Wisconsin and Nebraska, his Money Game winner between Florida and Missouri. Get it ALL NOW, only $99!
The Horned Frogs might never have a first half like they did at home against Texas last week, but it doesn't mean they can't roll through the Wildcats this week in Manhattan.
I am looking for the Frogs to outscore K-State by at least a TD per quarter on the way to an easy victory that continues to build the Heisman candidacy of Trevone Boykin.
This year's KSU group is not the underdog threat others have been.
Play the Frogs -10.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
5* FREE Saturday NCAAF ATS Play
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Game 364: Western Kentucky -8
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Three College Football Top-Informational Plays (4-0 Last Week)
Free Pick on Alabama -
While you could argue that Alabama is in a bit of a letdown spot, coming off that big game against Georgia and another huge road game on deck against Texas A&M, I don’t think this team can afford to overlook any SEC opponent after already losing a conference game at home to Ole Miss.
It’s well known that the teams who give Alabama trouble are the ones that run a spread offense with a mobile quarterback. It’s certainly been the case so far in 2015. They gave up 43 points and over 400 yards of total offense to Ole Miss, who likes to spread you out. In game against Wisconsin and Georgia, who like to line up and run the ball right at you, they dominated the two by combined score of 73-28.
Arkansas is one of those teams that fall in line with the Badgers and Bulldogs. Over the Razorbacks’ last 3 games they have averaged 45 rush attempts to just 23.3 pass attempts. I just don’t see Arkansas being able to do much of anything offensively here. They simply aren’t going to be able to run the ball on the Crimson Tide, who are allowing a mere 2.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.5. Last year the Razorbacks averaged 218 yards/game on the ground, yet only managed 89 on 39 carries against Alabama.
While Arkansas’s defense has been solid against the run, only giving up 101.6 ypg (16th), they haven’t exactly faced a legit rushing attack with their 5 games coming against UTEP, Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Alabama has shown they can run on whoever they go up against, as they put up 238 yards against Wisconsin, 215 against Ole Miss and 189 on Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are also a much more dynamic offensive team than they get credit for. Alabama has scored at least 34 points in all 5 of their games this season. Even if they get to just 34 points in this game, Arkansas would need to score 18 to cover. That’s asking a lot, given the Razorbacks have scored a combined 13-points in their last 3 games against the Crimson Tide. You also have to factor in that Arkansas isn’t a team that’s built to play from behind, so if Alabama is able to get out to an early lead, this game could spiral out of control and end up closer to the 52-0 score from 2013.
With last week’s win and cover against Georgia, the Crimson Tide improved to 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of October. It’s also worth noting that as the head coach of Alabama, Nick Saban has gone 13-2 ATS in his last 15 games when his team has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 24-14 ATS in their last 38 after a win by 28 or more points. Arkansas head coach Brett Bielema is 0-8 ATS in all road games he’s coached against a team that is allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Take Alabama!
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Play Florida (Game 389).
The 5-0 Florida Gators have become the favorite in the SEC East, after back-to-back, outright victories over Tennessee and Mississippi. Missouri has the SEC's top-scoring defense but allowed their only good offensive opponent, Kentucky to put up 21 points in a loss. Backup QB, Drew Lock starts his second career start in place of suspended, Maty Mauk. The Tigers' offense is in a tight-spot here, as their leading ball-carrier, Russell Hansbrough is still hampered by an ankle issue but is expected to play. Mizzou has no ground game (113th nationally) which doesn't bode well facings UF's swarming pass "D". The Gators are 7-1 ATS their L8 overall, 5-1 ATS their L6 Conference games, and 5-0 ATS their L5 road games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS their L5 overall, 1-4 ATS their L5 on field-turf, and 0-4 ATS their L4 following a SU win. Take Florida. Thank you.
Kansas State are very well coached and this seems like too many points. TCU coming off a big win last week, but really only played 1 quarter (scoring 30 of their 50 points) against average opposition in Texas. Prior to that game , TCU have looked shaky on both sides, especially defense and although Boykin is a star, this is too many points for a well coached, well disciplined Wildcats side who love playing the dog.
Wildcats are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
For a our free pick, take Kansas State +10.5 points here.
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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Northwestern +10
This line actually opened at Northwestern +12 and was bet all the way down to +7.5. As of this posting, it's back up to +10 and nearly a premium play in my eyes, but I'll just make it a free pick today. There was a lot of early sharp money pouring in on the Wildcats, and for good reason. This team continues to lack the respect it deserves from oddsmakers this week in catching more than a touchdown against the Wolverines.
The Wildcats have played a tougher schedule than the Wolverines to this point, which makes their 5-0 start all the more impressive. They beat Stanford 16-6 in the opener, which is the same Stanford team that went on the road and beat USC 41-31. The Wildcats also went on the road and beat Duke 19-10 as 3.5-point underdogs, and then crushed Minnesota 27-0 last week as 4-point favorites.
Michigan does have a ‘good’ loss at Utah by a final of 17-24. But the other four opponents the Wolverines have played have been Oregon State, UNLV, BYU and Maryland. They caught BYU in a great spot because the Cougars had just played Nebraska, Boise State and UCLA the previous three weeks and were out of gas. Not surprisingly, the Wolverines made easy work of the Cougars by a final of 31-0.
Don’t get me wrong, I do believe Michigan is a very good team as well, but I look at these teams as pretty much equals. On a neutral field, this line should be a pick ’em in my eyes. I’d give Michigan about 4 points for home-field advantage, which means I believe there is still roughly 6 points of value here with Northwestern at +10.
Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game with this total being set at 34 points. Most low-scoring games favor the underdog catching big points, which I believe to be the case here. Whoever wins, I expect it to be by a touchdown or less. Northwestern is only giving up 7.0 points and 247.4 yards per game against tougher competition than Michigan, which is giving up 7.6 points and 184.0 yards per game.
The one big advantage in my book for the Wildcats here is that they have the better quarterback. Clayton Thorson is a dual-threat guy who has made a huge difference for this team in his first season as the starter. He has thrown for 711 yards and four touchdowns against three interceptions, while also rushing for 165 yards and four scores. Michigan’s biggest weakness is QB Jake Rudock, who has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season.
Finally, Northwestern is going to want some serious revenge against Michigan. It has lost the last three meetings in excruciating fashion. The Wildcats have lost in overtime twice and by a single point last year, 10-9. As you can see, each of the last three meetings were decided by a single possession, and I expect that to be the case again in 2015. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
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10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Akron -7.5)
Sitting at 2-3 and coming off a loss at home to Ohio 12-14, I think the Zips are poised for a breakout performance. Akron's 3 losses have all come against quality opponents in Ohio, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma. All 3 of which are rock solid defensively, which is a big reason why the Zips come into this game ranked just 104th in total offense. They put up 52 against Savannah State and 35 at Louisiana-Lafayette in blowout wins. Eastern Michigan ranks 112th in total defense and are atrocious against the run (376.8 ypg). The Eagles have given up 34 to Old Dominion, 29 to Wyoming, 28 to Ball St 58 to Army and 44 to LSU. Akron is going to move the ball and put up points. That's why you have to like the Zips, as they are 24th in the country in total defense and 12th against the run (92.2 ypg). Eastern Michigan is going to struggle to move the ball and will have to rely too much on the passing game. Eagles also in a huge letdown spot here both emotionally and physically coming off a game against SEC power LSU. Give me Akron -7.5!
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Price's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Georgia Tech +7.5
The Key: After going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, I look for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to play an inspired game this week to try and get back in the win column. Everyone was in love with this team after beating Alcorn State and Tulane a combined 134-16 the first two weeks, but now everyone is down on Georgia Tech after three losses to Notre Dame (22-30), Duke (20-34) and UNC (31-38) the last three weeks. Now is the time to get on board as the Yellow Jackets are underdogs for the first time this season and undervalued. Clemson is coming off a huge 24-22 win over Notre Dame last week, and after the celebrations that took place with the fans storming the field, there's no question this is a letdown spot. Clemson's last two wins over Louisville and Notre Dame have come by a combined 5 points. I expect this one to go right down to the wire as well. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset loss as a favorite are 173-105 ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Georgia Tech.
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DMack's Free Play for Saturday is on LSU
This has been a nightmare season for the Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier and rumor has it he'll retire for good at the end of the year and enjoy the high life. In the mean time, the Gamecocks will get hammered again by a much better team that features a big bruising quality back. Georgia's Nick Chubb shredded South Carolina for 200+ so imagine what Leonard Fournette will do in his quest for history. The Tigers have been sluggish in last couple but put together a big effort here. LSU by 24.
#NHL Free Pick from Mike Lundin
Play: Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars impressed in a 3-0 victory against Pittsburgh in their season-opener and I think we're getting a fair price on them at Colorado Saturday night. The Avalanche lost their season-premiere 5-4 to the Wild after a third-period collapse, and that must be mentally tough to score four goals and still lose. Goals won't come easy here against the Stars newly acquired netminder Antti Niemi who stopped 37 shots in his club debut and an improved Dallas blueline led by defenseman Johnny Oduya who came over from Stanley Cup Champs Chicago. The Stars led the Western Conference in goals last season and should outscore the Avs here.
- Stars are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Mike Lundin is a perfect 1-0 with his NHL free picks on the season. He has a 3-pack of NHL Premium Picks available for just $60.