In Italy, take Livorno and Novaro to draw at +198.
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Jordan's Saturday Night NCAAF Big 12 Total Play
**2 Star Free Pick**
Play on the UNDER 74.5 points.
The NCAAF free system play is on San Jose. St. Game 142 at 3:30 eastern. The Spartans were a big 7* Game of the year winner for us last week and now we will back them again for a completely different set of reasons. They are 7-3 as home dogs and become bowl eligible here today. Road teams off back to back favored losses at -10 or more like Boise are a dismal 2-6 to the spread and home dogs of 5 to 10 off a road favored win vs an opponent off a loss are 11-4 ats at + 7 or more. Take San Jose. RV
After a hot start to the season, the Falcons have fallen away badly. Most of their issues though have been on offense, as their secondary has been solid all season. The Falcons own the 12th ranked defense in the league, allowing 21.4 ppg, however they also own the league’s 2nd best home ground defense, allowing just 71.8 ypg – this will come in handy against the run heavy Vikings, who run the ball a lot through Peterson (understandably). The Vikings also own the league’s 2nd ranked defense, allowing a miserly 18.4 ppg. The Vikings will be keen to make amends after dropping a key game last week to the Packers, while the Falcons haven’t put up more than 21 points in their last 5 games straight (averaging just 17.6 ppg in those 5 games). This one doesn’t look like a shoot out and should fall UNDER.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Minnesota. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
For our free pick, take the UNDER 46 points BIG here.
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We want NO PART of a home Dog Auburn team that's lost 3 of their last 4 SEC games (1-3 SU & ATS) by a TD or more. Not impressed with their victory last Saturday as they were -33 point favorites in a non-conference battle against an over-matched Idaho squad. This Saturday they return to the SEC to host Alabama, who's won 8 STRAIGHT games since their only loss back on September 19th. That loss woke 'Bama up and they've been playing better football during the last 2 months while posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. With recent losses by Ohio State, Baylor and TCU, #2-ranked Alabama will secure their NCAA Playoff spot with a solid victory against SEC rival Auburn. This line has move up since opening at -13 points as the public continues to back Alabama, so be careful as this is an in-state rivalry game that have ended closer than expected in several previous meetings, such as last year's 55-44 home victory from Alabama, barely covering the -10 point spread. That rivalry factor moves this play to a 10* rating and bettors should consider Teasers, or wager before this line moves any higher. 10* Play On ALABAMA
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on the bubble as far as the playoffs are concerned, and they need a win here at Stanford, and possibly some help from teams like Nebraska, Penn State or TCU. The Cardinal's playoff hopes are a little slimmer, but they've already punched a ticket to the PAC12 Championship Game, and a win over the Irish could keep them in the discussion. My money is on a Stanford team that has a far more impressive body of work.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Christian McCaffrey - The Heisman hopeful ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also rank back a 98 yard kick for a TD. He should find plenty of room to run against a Notre Dame team that surrendered 214 rushing yards to Boston College last week.
2. Injuries - The Irish are really banged up, and last week they lost leading rusher C.J. Prosise to a high ankle sprain. He's not likely to play on Saturday versus Stanford.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinal are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, and they've covered in seven of their last nine versus a team with a winning record.
Selection: This is a play on the Stanford Cardinal (Free)
Oregon State +35 1.1* Free Play
This is not one you'd run to play, but it is one of college football's oldest rivalry games. You have the tendency to throw things out at the end of the day. Oregon is getting so much credit for how they have played of late, but just a few weeks ago we were having a very different discussion. Oregon's defense is still not above average, and I could see Oregon State taking big chances down field that will pay off in this game as Oregon's secondary is a major weakness, and a big reason why they haven't held any opponent under 20 points in a game. Oregon State's players are treating this like a bowl game which means we will get max effort. If you are looking to play this like I am I would wait for the last possible second as I see this climbing to 37 or higher by game time. I also don't see how Oregon gets up for this game, they don't have anything to play for, they also just got done playing USC and Stanford so even though it's a rivalry game I don't see this team having great intensity. I would predict Oregon 49, Oregon State 27.
1* Free Play Patriots.
Tom Brady. Brock Osweiler. We could leave it at that and just say "enough said" and that would be ample reason enough to take the Patriots in this matchup. Osweiler looked alright vs. a struggling Bears team last week but now faces a much stiffer test obviously in defending champion New England. It's true that the Pats haven't completely dominated their last two opponents, winning 27-26 over the Giants and then holding on for a victory over the revenge minded Bills last Monday. Remember, Brady and New England beat both of these teams with significant injuries on both sides of the ball, a clear testament to how deep and well coached the Patriots really are. And how awesome Brady really is. Both the Giants and the Bills gave New England their best shots and the injured Pats STILL won. Is there any question in your mind that if New York and Buffalo played as well as they did in those contests, that they'd both have beaten the Broncos easily? Beating Jay Cutler and the Bears is one thing, but beating Brady and an albeit injured Patriots team is quite another. This is what Brady and head coach Tom Belichick live for. These are the moments that these two almost always dominate in. The fact that the team is injured is not going to matter. Brady or Osweiler? We'll highly recommend a second look at NEW ENGLAND in this one.
Arizona is off a big time prime time 34-31 win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, That was a bruising event and an emotional win which will have the Cardinals entering this game vs lowly SF banged up and in a fragie emotional let down state. On paper this seems like a mismatch, but in their current condition the Cardinals could very much be susceptible to an upset or at least a difficult game. It must be noted that the last 11 double digit road favorites are just 3-8 ATS . With that said, folks, just plug your noses, and pull the trigger on the 49ers to bring shock and awe to many Sunday NFL viewers, as they cover the number.
Take the points -1/2 unit comp selection
The aspirations of Notre Dame winning a National Title ends here. Stanford has their number and they should be able to cover this line by a TD. You also have the option of grabbing the hook and bringing this down to -3 but a TD cover is very likely.
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Free Pick on Iowa -
While there’s no denying that the Cornhuskers are a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate and they will certainly be motivated to not only make a bowl but to ruin Iowa’s perfect season, I like the value we are getting with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal.
No one seems to want to give Iowa any credit for their 11-0 start (outside of the playoff committee), as all people want to do is pick apart their schedule. It’s a big reason why the Hawkeyes aren’t a bigger favorite in this matchup. I look for the Hawkeyes to come out looking to make a statement against the Cornhuskers and get their revenge from last year’s heartbreaking overtime loss at home.
One thing that a lot of people are overlooking with Iowa is their offense has been consistently putting up big time numbers. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 31 points in 5 straight games. Nebraska held Rutgers to just 14 points in their last contest, but prior to that they gave up 38 to Michigan State, 55 to Purdue and 30 to Northwestern.
One of the reason that some might be drawn to Cornhuskers in this matchup, is they come in with the 9th ranked run defense, allowing just 109.8 yards/game. However, a big reason for that is opposing teams are having their way throwing the ball. Nebraska is 121st in the country against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 305.5 ypg. Iowa’s C.J. Boatyard has completed 61% of his attempts for 2,257 yards with 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. He’s more than capable of shouldering the load with his arm if needed, but I think Iowa’s going to have some success here on the ground.
On the flip side of this, Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong is prone to mistakes, as he comes into this game with 12 interceptions and 5 of those have come in their last 2 games. The Cornhuskers as a team have committed 10 total turnovers in their last 3. Iowa has has 3 turnovers in their last 6 games combined and Nebraska's defense has only forced 3 in their last 4.
Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 at least 8 games into the season in a contest involving 2 strong rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 yards/carry) are just 12-39 (23%) ATS in conference games since 1992.
Defensively this is also a good matchup for the Hawkeyes, as Nebraska’s offense is built around the running game. The Cornhuskers are averaging a respectable 4.7 ypg on the ground, while only completing 55.6% of their pass attempts. Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards/carry against the run and opposing quarterbacks are only completing 53.8% of their attempts against them.
Another factor here is turnovers and Iowa does a much better job of taking care of creating takeaways and taking care of the ball. Iowa has only committed 10 turnovers all season. Nebraska has 10 in their last 3 games. The Cornhuskers have forced 12 turnovers, where the Hawkeyes have forced 22. Teams that win the turnover battle typically win the game and with this low spread that’s all we need.
Iowa is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Nebraska is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games played on a Friday and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. We also see that home teams with a line of +3 to -3 at least 8 games into the season in a contest involving 2 strong rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 yards/carry) are just 12-39 (23%) ATS in conference games since 1992. take Iowa!
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10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Florida +3)
Everyone is ripping on the Gators for their poor performance in their last 3 games, but the most important thing is they found a way to win. You have to keep in mind this team has had the SEC East locked up for quite some time and have struggled to find motivation against inferior opponents. Florida won't have any trouble getting up against in-state rival Florida State, who won 4 of the last 5 in the series. This is a huge revenge game for the Gators and when the opponent has been legit, they have stepped up and played their best football. If you listen to the SC podcast, you know I'm not a big fan of the ACC, as I feel it's drastically overrated. Just look at Florida State's schedule and find me an impressive win against an elite opponent. You won't. The Seminoles 9 wins have come against Texas St, USF, BC, WF, MIA, LOU, SYR, NCST, and Chattanooga. I just feel Florida's defense is to fast and too athletic for the Seminoles and have a huge advantage playing at home in the swamp. Wrong team is favored in my opinion. Give me the Gators +3!
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Xander Locke's NFL total of the week
I have come up with my own strategic method of picking NFL GAMES. I am not going to divulge my methods. You must take every game in order to ensure winning a % of the games. I have had great success with these methods. Very rarely will I lose more than I win of these games
11/27 07:35 PM EST NBA (707) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (708) BOSTON CELTICS
Take: (707) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Reason: Your free play for Friday, November 27, 2015 is in the NBA as the Wizards head to Boston to take on the Celtics. The Wizards are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston is favored but just 8-7 overall and the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Washington has won 3 of its last 5 and matches up well. Play Washington.
I'm recommending a play on Cincinnati on Friday. The Bearcats are in revenge for a 56-55 OT loss to the Huskers last season. While Nebraska's Tim Miles attempts to recruit better and bring new faces to Lincoln, the fact is, a lot of new names are getting a lot of playing time early this season. Gone are 50% of the points scored by Nebraska in last year's meeting, along with 27 of their 34 rebounds, all three assists (yes, they finished with just three assists), and all four blocks. This year's team is off to a 4-1 SU start, but in the only game against anyone of note, the Huskers were crushed 87-63 by Villanova. Nebraska committed 22 turnovers in the loss, while dishing out just nine assists. Cincy will get after the Huskers all night long on the defensive end and I expect another high turnover contest for the young Big-10 entry. The undefeated Bearcats have held their opponents to 53 ppg on 32.8% shooting. Meanwhile, UC has scored nearly 90 ppg on 49% shooting, including almost 41% from behind the arc, and they own a +15 rebounds per game margin. Cincy enters on an 8-2 ATS run going back to last season, while the Huskers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 against teams with a winning record. I'm recommending a play on Cincinnati minus the points on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Jack's Free Pick Friday: Nebraska +2.5
Iowa has had a very favorable schedule up to this point in the season. It has avoided all of the top teams from the Big Ten East division in Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes deserve a lot of credit for going 11-0, but they certainly have taken advantage of their schedule.
Finally, the schedule makers did not do the Hawkeyes any favors in this game. This will be a short week for the Hawkeyes as this game will be played on Friday. Nebraska had a bye last week, so it has had nearly two full weeks to prepare for this game. That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Cornhuskers, and it’s the reason that they are probably the smart side in this one.
I also like the fact that the Cornhuskers have fought their way back into bowl contention, so they have a lot to play for here. They handed Michigan State its only loss of the season in a 39-38 home win as 3.5-point dogs before crushing Rutgers 31-14 on the road. So, they’ve fought back to 5-6 after a 3-6 start to the season. Not only will they be excited to beat a Top 5 team, but they also want to go to the postseason.
There’s also no question that Nebraska is much better than its 5-6 record would indicate. It has suffered a ridiculous amount of close losses this season. Nebraska’s six losses have all come by 10 points or less and by a combined 23 points, which is an average loss of just 3.8 points per game. Five of its losses have come by 5 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.
The Huskers do boast one of the better offenses in the Big Ten. They are putting up 33.6 points, 443.4 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that only allow 25.0 points, 365 yards per game and 5.3 per play. Tommy Armstrong Jr. has thrown for 2,560 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this year. It’s looking like he’s going to play Friday despite dealing with some legal issues as he’s currently listed as probable.
Mike Riley is 19-8 ATS off a bye week in all games he has coached. Nebraska is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 34 points per game. The Huskers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75%. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Nebraska Friday.
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#NBA Free Pick from Mike Lundin
Play: Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls have won five of their last six and defeated the Trail Blazers 93-88. They're just 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win though, and they've failed to cover in each of their last four visits to Indiana. The Pacers meanwhile have won six of their last seven with the lone setback a 96-95 loss at Chicago on Nov. 16. They're a fantastic 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and Paul George has scored 20 points or more in 10 straight games averaging 29.6 points in that span.
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Dave's Friday Free Play:
1* on San Jose State +7.5
The Key: Boise State is only a 7.5-point road favorite over San Jose State due to its reputation alone. But these aren't the same Broncos of years' past. They have lost two straight outright at home as double-digits favorites, and they're only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, and at 5-6, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Their last two losses have come by a combined four points. San Jose State actually ranks 13 spots higher than Boise State in offensive efficiency. The defense has held its own, too, giving up 357.5 yards per game and 5.5 per play. Boise State has nothing to play for here as it has been eliminated from MWC title contention. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. Take San Jose State.
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Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER: Oklahoma.
Both teams are at 10-1 overall and both (along with Baylor) have just 1 Conference loss. I got to watch Baker Mayfield this season and he is absolutely one of the most-explosive players in college football. Last week, Oklahoma State had trouble running the ball (again) while their DB's were repeatedly burned by the Baylor wideouts. The Cowboys are not a rushing team so the Sooners can and will keep the OK State defense on the field and by the 2nd half, will have them breathing out of their mouths. I feel that Oklahoma RB, Samarje Perine will add to his 1160 YR and allow Mayfield to hook up with Shepard, Westbrook, Neal, Mixon, and Andrews (2884 YR and 27 TD's combined), not to forget Mayfield working his magic The Sooners are 4-1 ATS their L5 at the Cowboys and 7-3 ATS the L10 overall vs. the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma. Thank you.
Rating: 2 Unit NCAAF Free Pick
Tulane was overpowered by SMU, a terrible smudge. Tulsa is 5-6 and brings more to the table, especially on offense. Move it behind Evans (329 passing yards per game), but field 125th defense. However, 'Wave at 14.7 points per game offense in their last 7 games, and allowing more than 30 points in 20-of-22 games. Tulsa owns this series