Winning Sports Picks

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals +101

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory right now after losing 10 of their last 13 games overall.  The Milwaukee Brewers, meanwhile, are overvalued right now due to winning five of their last seven.

There's no way the Nationals should be underdogs today with the edge they have on the mound.  Jordan Zimmerman is 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts this season.  He was 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his previous four starts before allowing four runs in Sunday's 6-3 loss to the Cubs.

Zimmerman has never lost to the Brewers, going 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.206 WHIP In five career starts against them.  The Nationals are a perfect 5-0 in those five games.  He'll be opposed by Mike Fiers, who is 2-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in six home starts.

Fiers is 0-6 (-7.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  The Nationals are 27-5 in Zimmermann's last 32 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Washington is 40-12 in Zimmermann's last 52 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nationals Friday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -138

The Houston Astros are absolutely reeling right now.  They have lost seven straight games to come back down to reality following an improbable start.  Their offense has been held to two runs or fewer in six of the seven losses.

I look for Houston's offense to struggle against the best starter in the American League today.  Felix Hernandez is 9-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in five road starts.  He is well on his way to winning the Cy Young Award.

Hernandez has owned the Astros, going 3-2 with a 1.84 ERA in seven career starts against them.  He'll be up against Brett Oberholtzer, who is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 2.083 WHIP in three starts this year.  He has allowed 25 base runners in 12 innings and is lasting an average of only 4 innings per start.

The Mariners are 29-10 in Hernandez's last 39 starts overall, including 5-0 in his last five road starts.  The Astros are 47-99 in their last 146 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -120

The Detroit Tigers should be much heavier home favorites over the Cleveland Indians today.  The Tigers come in motivated after having lost nine of their last 12 games overall.  Now, they send ace David Price to the mound to get back on track.

Price has gone 5-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  Price is 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cleveland.

Price has allowed just two earned runs over 20 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Indians.  He has given up one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts against them.  Danny Salazar is a quality starter who is 6-1 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 starts this year, but he's no Price.

The Indians are 10-21 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 17-35 in its last 52 during Game 1 of a series.  The Tigers are 7-0 in Price's last seven starts during game 1 of a series.  Detroit is 6-0 in Price's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 11-1 in Price's last 12 starts vs. AL Central foes.  These last three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing Detroit.  Take the Tigers Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

Down 2-1 heading into Game 4, the Golden State Warriors know that they need a victory or this series is likely over.  I fully expect them to get it.  The first three games could have gone either way as all three were within five points at the end of regulation.

Draymond Green said it best yesterday in a press conference.  His team needs to play harder and with a sense of urgency, and I believe you will see that from the Warriors in Game 4 after seemingly losing the battle to get every loose ball in Game 3.  They will come to play tonight.

The Cavaliers being up 2-1 is certainly a surprise to most.  Obviously, they are going to show up again in Game 4, but I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency as much as they have the past two games, and as much as the Warriors will be tonight.

The Warriors were down 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the conference semifinals.  It was the same situation as this as they lost Game 2 and Game 3.  They went on to win the next three games in blowout fashion.  The Grizzlies are a similar physical team to the Cavaliers, and the Warriors made the proper adjustments in that series, and I believe they will in this series as well.

Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +138

The Colorado Rockies should not be underdogs to the Miami Marlins today with the edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage of this line mistake and back the Rockies, who just took two out of three from the Cardinals and are feeling good about themselves.

The Rockies have actually played their best baseball on the road this season as they are 14-13 away from home.  Chris Rusin has quietly been dominant this season, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over 18 2/3 innings pitched.  He faced the Marlins on June 6th in his last turn, giving up just two earned runs while striking out eight batters in 7 innings of a 10-5 home win.

David Phelps started the season very strong, but he has been terrible of late.  Phelps is 0-3 with an 8.27 ERA in his last four starts. He faced the Rockies in that same game against Rusin.  But Phelps gave up a career high-tying nine runs and a career-worst 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of that 10-5 loss.

Colorado is 9-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.  The Rockies are 20-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.  Phelps is 0-7 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter in his career.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Phelps' last five starts.  Take the Rockies Thursday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -101

After losing the first two games of this series to the Kansas City Royals to fall out of first place in the AL Central, there's no question that the Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the three-game sweep.

The Twins send underrated starter Kyle Gibson to the mound today to get back on track.  Gibson has gone 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in six home starts.  Gibson is also 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City.

Edinson Volquez has pitched well for the Royals in his first season with them, but he's still not as good of a starter as Gibson.  Volquez is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts, but 0-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four road starts this year.

The Twins are 4-1 in their last five after losing the first two games of a series.  Minnesota is 16-5 in its last 21 games as a home underdog.  The Twins are 8-2 in Gibson's last 10 starts during Game 3 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts as a home underdog.  Roll with the Twins Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -134

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Brewers while scoring a combined one run in those two contests.  Now, they look to avoid the sweep at home.

I like Pittsburgh's chances of getting after Kyle Lohse, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.  Lohse is 3-6 with a 6.59 ERA in 12 starts, including 0-2 with a 10.44 ERA in his last three.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh as well.

Charlie Morton has been exceptional at PNC Park, going 5-2 with a 1.98 ERA in his last 10 starts there.  Morton went 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA during a four-start stretch against the Brewers before giving up five runs in six innings in his last start against them.

The Brewers are 0-6 in Lohse's last six starts during Game 3 of a series.  The Pirates are 18-6 in their last 24 during Game 3 of a series.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five after losing the first two games of a series.  The Pirates are 11-3 in their last 14 games as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Morton's last four home starts.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

15* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -128

After losing the first two games of this series to the Rockies while getting outscored 6-15 in the process, there's no question that the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 today.  The Cardinals are 17-4 in their last 21 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.

They send out arguably their best starter in Carlos Martinez, who has gone 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearances in 2015.  Martinez has been virtually untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA in his last four starts while giving up just one earned run.

Martinez has limited opponents to two runs or less in nine of his 11 starts.  He'll be opposed by Chad Bettis, who has actually pitched quite well for the Rockies this season, but it has come in limited action and I just believe he's in line for a reality check today.

St. Louis is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season.  The Cardinals are a perfect 9-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season.  Martinez is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing St. Louis.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.  They may have started to believe the hype that this series was over due to the injuries to the Cavaliers coming into Game 2.

That was a big reason I was on Cleveland last game, but I'm going with the Warriors in Game 3.  They will be the ones who come out and play with a sense of urgency tonight that they haven't played with yet in this series.  Meanwhile, there's no way the Cavs can match the effort they played with on Sunday.

Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2.  They shot just 39.8% from the field with Curry going 5-for-23.  Steve Kerr will make the proper adjustments, and I look for the Warriors to get back to playing their up-tempo ways that have made them the best offensive team in the league all season.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +116

Any time you get the chance to back NL Cy Young contender Max Scherzer as an underdog you should certainly take advantage.  That's the opportunity the oddsmakers have presented us tonight as the Nationals take on the Yankees.

Washington will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing eight of their last 10 games overall.  New York comes into this game overvalued due to having won six straight coming in.

Scherzer has been dominant in his first season in Washington, going 6-4 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 11 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA in five starts away from home.  His counterpart, Masahiro Tanaka, has gone 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in two home starts.

Scherzer is 57-23 (+24.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.  Washington is 35-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  Scherzer is 40-13 (+19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -105

The Minnesota Twins continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite being 33-23 on the season.  They should be bigger favorites at home today against the Kansas City Royals.

Phil Hughes hasn't pitched as well as last year, but he is 3-1 with a 1.244 WHIP in five home starts this year and is unlucky to have a 5.17 ERA to go with it.  Hughes has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 starts against the Royals.

Jason Vargas hasn't been any better than Hughes this year, going 4-2 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four road starts.  Vargas has faced the Twins twice already this year, giving up 9 earned runs and 20 base runners over 8 2/3 innings for a 9.34 ERA.

Kansas City is 0-6 (-7.5 Units) against the money line after a one run win this season.  Minnesota is 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less two straight games this season.  The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Minnesota is 15-4 in Hughes' last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Twins Monday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 represent my favorite play of the entire NBA postseason up to this point.  This is a must-win game for them as they cannot afford to go back to Cleveland down 0-2 if they want to win this series.

There is some serious value in getting the Cavs as 8-point underdogs here.  They were only 6-point dogs in Game 1 and forced overtime.  Now, we are getting an extra two points with them only because Kyrie Irving is out for the series after getting injured in Game 1.

Well, the Cavaliers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They have heard the noise through the media that this series is over because Irving is out.  You can bet that Lebron James and company will be using that noise as motivation in Game 2 here tonight.

Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team  (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins +102

The Miami Marlins have started to show some life here over the past week.  They have won three of their last four and I like their chances of picking up a victory in Game 3 of this series with the Colorado Rockies to take the series Sunday.

I'll gladly fade Kyle Kendrick, who is 2-7 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 11 starts for the Rockies this year.  Kendrick is 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in four home starts.

The Rockies are 36-74 in their last 110 Sunday games.  Colorado is 1-6 in Kendrick's last 7 starts.  The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the Marlins Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -109

Off three straight losses, including two by exactly one run, the Los Angeles Angels are clearly motivated for a victory today.  I believe they'll get it against the New York Yankees tonight to get back on track.

Garrett Richards is a great story.  He came out of nowhere to produce an excellent season last year.  He has pretty much picked up right where he left off, going 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year.  He has allowed 4 earned runs in 15 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees as well.

Adam Warren has been better than expected for the Yankees this year.  But as a result, he his overvalued right now.  Warren is 3-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 10 starts.  While he has been solid, he's not nearly on the level of Richards talent-wise.  I'll gladly fade him today.

The Angels are 10-3 in Richards' last 13 starts as a road favorite.  Los Angeles is 22-8 in Richard's last 30 starts overall.  The Yankees are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

20* AL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +117

The Baltimore Orioles put an end to a five-game losing streak with a huge 3-2 win over the Houston Astros and Dallas Keuchel yesterday.  I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Cleveland Indians Friday.

Chris Tillman has been the ace of Baltimore's staff for the past couple seasons.  He is off to a tough start in 2015, but that has him undervalued at this point in the season.  I have no doubt he's going to rebound, and he has started to by allowing two or fewer runs in two of his past three starts.

There's no way the Indians should be favored with washed-up starter Shaun Marcum on the mound tonight.  Marcum has been atrocious as a starter this season, going 2-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in three starts.  In his lone home start, he allowed 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

Marcum is 9-23 (-15.6 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 in his career.  Tillman is 17-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 23-10 in Tillman's last 33 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting little respect heading into this series.  They are +200 underdogs to win the series, and 6-point underdogs in Game 1.  I believe the value is clearly with the Cavaliers in this one.

While I agree with the Warriors being favored in Game 1 and for the series, I just feel that this number is too big.  The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season, but they don't have a single player on their 15-man roster that has ever been to the NBA Finals.  Nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1.

The Cavaliers have a tremendous leader in Lebron James who will be going to his 5th straight NBA Finals.  His confidence and temperament will rub off on his teammates in Game 1. 

While the Cavs did get to go through an easy Eastern Conference to get here, you cannot ignore the fact that they are 46-11 since mid-January.  They have won seven straight playoff games over the Bulls and Hawks, which is no small feat, either.

Cleveland is 24-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  It has morphed into an elite defensive team in these playoffs.  Holding the Hawks to less than 42% shooting for four straight games is mighty impressive.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -105

After two straight excruciating one-run losses to the Phillies as their bullpen blew saves late in both games, I look for the Cincinnati Reds to come back highly motivated for a victory today.  They'll avoid the sweep and take Game 3 against the lowly Phillies in this one.

Anthony Descalfini has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  He has gone 3-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five road starts.

Aaron Harang has gotten off to a brilliant start for Philadelphia, but it's nothing more than fool's gold.  The veteran right-hander is far past his prime and will not be able to live up to the 2.02 ERA and 0.995 WHIP he has posted up to this point the rest of the way.

The Reds are 47-23 in their last 70 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Phillies are 7-18 in their last 25 during game 3 of a series.  Philadelphia is 1-8 in its last 9 Thursday games.  The Phillies are 1-4 in Harang's last 5 starts.  Take the Reds Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -128

The Cleveland Indians are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and have a chance to get back to .500 with a win Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals have gone 1-6 in their last seven contests while scoring two or fewer runs in all six losses.

The Indians should have no problem continuing their recent surge with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.  The 2014 AL Cy Young winner has been nothing short of spectacular here of late.  He has gone 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just 5 earned runs in 32 innings while striking out 50 batters.

Jason Vargas has really struggled in 2015.  The left-hander is 3-2 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in six starts this season.  Vargas has posted a 4.86 ERA in 11 career starts against Cleveland, while Kluber sports a 3.48 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 career starts against Kansas City.

The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 Wednesday games.  The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Cleveland is 6-2 in its last 8 trips to Kansas City.  Bet the Indians Wednesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -125

The Cleveland Indians are playing their best baseball of the season heading into Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals. They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  I look for them to stay red hot with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Carrasco is having another fine season after closing last year with a bang.  The right-hander has gone 6-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings. Carrasco has given up just 6 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals for a 2.49 ERA.

Jeremy Guthrie has been atrocious in 2015.  He has gone 4-3 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in nine starts.  He gave up 11 earned runs and four homers to the Yankees in his last start.  Guthrie does not enjoy facing the Indians, going 5-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.514 WHIP In 12 career starts against them.  He has given up 15 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland for a 9.20 ERA.

Cleveland is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  The Indians are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  The Royals are 1-5 in their last six games overall.  Kansas City is 1-7 in its last eight games as a home dog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Indians Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched the NL Cy Young & MVP Award level that he did last year.  He's just 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  However, it's only a matter of time before he returns to his dominant old self.

Kershaw is coming off arguably his best start of the season against the Braves.  He pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just four base runners and striking out 10 in an 8-0 victory on May 26th.  Look for him to build off that start tonight.

Kyle Kendrick is no match for Kershaw.  The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field.  Kendrick is 3-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

What really intrigues me about this play is Kershaw's recent performances against Colorado.  The left-hander is 15-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Rockies.  In fact, the Dodgers are 11-1 against the run line in Kershaw's last 12 starts against Colorado, winning 11 of those 12 starts by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* Tigers/Angels ESPN Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit -105

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a win tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Angels, and now they want to try and avoid the sweep by winning Game 4 tonight.

I like their chances with ace David Price on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five road starts.  Price is 4-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Matt Shoemaker gets the ball for the Angels.  He has really struggled this season at 3-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts, including 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA in four home starts.  He has already allowed a whopping 13 homers in 51 1/3 innings, including 8 homers in 20 1/3 innings at home.

Detroit is 9-1 in Price's 10 starts this season, including 6-0 in his last six starts.  The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games after losing the first 3 games of a series.  The Angels are 0-5 in Shoemaker's last five home starts.  Los Angeles is 1-10 in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet the Tigers Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -107

The San Diego Padres should be much bigger home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates today.  We took advantage and backed them yesterday, and we'll take advantage again today with Tyson Ross on the mound.

Ross has gotten off to a slow start this season, which has him undervalued right now.  He's still 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 10 starts, which is respectable, but not up to his talent level.  Ross is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh.

Charlie Morton is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now.  He is no more than a fill-in starter for Pittsburgh as he has made just one start this season.  This will be his second start of the year and I don't like his chances against Ross and the Padres.

San Diego is 20-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Pirates are 6-18 in their last 24 games as a road underdog.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a road underdog.  The Pirates are 24-52 in Morton's last 76 starts as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 1-6 in Morton's last 7 road starts.  The Padres are 8-2 in Ross' last 10 home starts.  Bet the Padres Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +137

The San Francisco Giants are getting way too much respect from oddsdmakers tonight as big home favorites against the Atlanta Braves.  I'll gladly back the Braves at this price as they clearly have the better starting pitcher on the mound despite being dogs.

Mike Foltynewicz has gone 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings this season.  He has posted a 2.70 ERA in his lone road start this year.  This will be his first career start against the Giants, which will be an advantage for him.  He gave up just one earned run and four base runners in 7 2/3 innings in his last start against Milwaukee.

Tim Hudson should never be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  Hudson has gone 2-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three.

Atlanta is 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 4 or less hits this season.  After getting shut out yesterday, the Braves will come back motivated to get after Hudson today.  The Giants are 1-5 in Hudson's last six starts as a favorite.  Take the Braves.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -104

Getting ace James Shields and the San Diego Padres at nearly even money tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  I'll take advantage and back the Padres, who will be motivated to bounce back from an 11-5 loss to the Pirates yesterday.

Shields hasn't lost in 2015, going 6-0 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.204 WHIP over 10 starts.  He has a whopping 82 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings pitched, which is a clear sign that he's been tough to hit.  Shields is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Francisco Liriano has pitched well for the Pirates also, going 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in nine starts.  However, he has faltered here of late, going 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against the Mets, Twins and Phillies.

Shields is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last two seasons.  Liriano is 7-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-6 in Liriano's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Pittsburgh is 2-8 in Liriano's last 10 starts overall.  Bet the Padres Friday.

15* Tigers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -104

The Los Angeles Angels should be heavy favorites today against the Detroit Tigers with the advantage that they have on the mound in this one.  They hung 12 runs on the Tigers yesterday and should stay red hot at the plate today.

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  He has gone 3-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in nine starts, including 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in five home starts.  Santiago has posted a 2.17 ERA in five career starts against Detroit as well.

Anibal Sanchez has been atrocious this season, going 3-5 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 10 starts.  His confidence has to have taken a hit after his last two starts.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings while also yielding 5 homers in losses to the Brewers and Astros.

The Tigers are 2-7 in Sanchez's last nine starts.  The Angels are 47-22 in their last 69 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Angels are 42-14 in their last 56 home meetings with Detroit, and 14-3 in their last 17 meetings overall.  Roll with the Angels Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres +116

After an unbelievable start to the 2015 season, A.J. Burnett is easily one of the most overvalued starting pitchers in the league right now.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are actually favored on the road against the San Diego Padres today.

Burnett cannot possibly keep this up the rest of the year.  This is the same guy that went 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 34 starts last season for the Phillies.  Burnett is 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in 11 career starts against San Diego.

Ian Kennedy is undervalued after a poor start to 2015.  He went 13-13 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 33 starts for San Diego last year, and he'll get it turned around soon.  Kennedy is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in eight career starts against Pittsburgh.  In two start against the Pirates last year, he allowed just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

Burnett is 12-44 (-32.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997.  The Pirates are 3-14 in Burnett's last 17 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Padres are 10-3 in Kennedy's last 13 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.   Bet the Padres Thursday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are massive road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line today.  While I was tempted to go with the money line, I believe the smart play is to take them on the run line in a game that has an excellent chance of being decided by a single run.

This game is expected to be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel with the two studs that are on the mound tonight.  I trust in Alex Wood to put forth one of his best efforts of the season tonight against Zach Greinke and the Dodgers.

Wood has gone 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts this year.  He has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts away from home.  In his lone career start against the Dodgers last year, Wood allowed one earned run in 7 innings of a 2-3 loss in L.A.

Atlanta is 371-174 against the run line (+77.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (ATLANTA) - bad offensive team (4.1 runs/game or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 229-132 (63.4%, +82.6 units) since 1997.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216.5

The UNDER was 3-0 in the first three meetings in this series.  These teams combined for 216, 197 and 195 points in the first three games.  After a huge output in Game 4 where they combined for 243 points, I believe the value is back with the UNDER in Game 5 with this 216.5-point total.

The Rockets had by far their best offensive output of the season in Game 4.  They shot 56.6% from the field and scored 128 points.  Golden State coach Steve Kerr was obviously furious about his team's effort defensively.  Look for the Warriors to be show much more tenacity on that end of the floor at home in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.

Golden State is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 27-9 UNDER after playing a game as a road favorite this season.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks showed some fight in Game 3 and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime.  They aren't going to give in in Game 4, and I like their chances of staying within 7.5 points of the Cavs in this elimination game.

Kevin Love is obviously out, but Kyrie Irving missed last game and is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury.  The Cavs would be wise to let him rest another game considering they are up 3-0 in this series.

What really could hurt the Cavaliers is that Lebron James is as sore as he's been all season.  "I'm feeling all right," he said, forcing a smile that showed he wasn't being entirely truthful. "I've been better, but I've been worse. I think I've been worse."

Atlanta is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  It is coming back to win by an average of 16.2 points per game in this spot.  The Hawks are also 15-3 ATS when playing with double revenge against an opponent this season.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -107

We are getting the Baltimore Orioles at a tremendous price at home against the Houston Astros today.  We are getting them at nearly even money, a sign that the Astros are way overvalued right now due to their great start to the season.

Chris Tillman isn't having nearly as good a season as he did last year, but he's being undervalued as a result.  He's 2-5 with a 5.22 ERA in eight starts.  I like Tillman's chances of bouncing back tonight considering he's 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Scott Feldman hasn't been any better than Tillman this year.  Feldman is 3-4 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in nine starts for Houston.  He is 4-2 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in eight career starts against Baltimore.  Feldman gave up 9 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.

Feldman is 31-61 (-37.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse in his career. The Astros are 3-14 in Feldman's last 17 road starts.  The Orioles are 47-21 in their last 68 home games.  Baltimore is 20-7 in Tillman's last 27 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

This series is over.  The Golden State Warriors made a statement with a 35-point win in Game 3.  The Rockets also made a statement that they were going to pack it in.  With no motivation now, I look for the Rockets to get blown out again in Game 4.

The Warriors showed that they were vulnerable in losing back-to-back games to Memphis.  However, they have responded in a big way since.  They have now won six straight playoff games with four of those victories coming by 13 points or more.  They are proving that they are the best team in the NBA and that their regular season success was no joke.

Golden State is 24-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Golden State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Bet the Warriors Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -127

The Tampa Bay Rays are my favorite play on the bases Monday.  They will be motivated to bounce back from two straight losses over the weekend.  They have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball at 24-21 on the year.

The Rays will get back on track behind their base starter in Jake Odorizzi.  The right-hander has gone 3-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in four home starts.  Odorizzi has faced the Mariners once in his career, pitching six shutout innings of a 2-0 victory last year.

Roenis Elias is 6-17 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Seattle is 0-6 in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 1-6 in Elias' last 7 starts on 4 days of rest.  The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Rays Monday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Everyone is pretty much looking forward to a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals, but I guarantee the Hawks have different ideas even after losing the first two games of this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge, two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  While everyone is counting them out, I believe the Hawks have other plans tonight.  Bet Atlanta in Game 3 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +121

The San Diego Padres couldn't possibly be more motivated for a victory than they are tonight.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight coming into this game with the L.A. Dodgers.  They certainly won't be lacking motivation as a result.

Ace James Shields is gets the ball today.  He hasn't lost yet in 2015, going 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.248 WHIP through nine starts.  He has struck out a whopping 75 batters in 55 1/3 innings as well, so he's obviously on his game.

Shields is 9-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 4-0 in Shields' last four starts.  Take the Padres Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -122

The Chicago Cubs should be much heavier favorites today against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They lost Game 1 by a single run, and they'll be motivated to bounce back in Game 2.  I like their chances with the edge they have on the mound.

Jake Arrieta is coming off a career year, and he has picked up right where he left off in 2015.  Arrieta has gone 4-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in eight starts with 55 strikeouts over 52 innings of work.

He'll be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa, who has been one of Arizona's best starters, but that's not saying much.  De La Rosa is 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA over eight starts this season.

Arizona is 6-25 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Chicago is 6-1 in its last 7 with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks are 4-24 in their last 28 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Cubs Saturday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK

The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water.  They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points.  They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight.

The Rockets are absolutely devastated.  They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time.  I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch.

Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +101

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back "The Dark Knight" as an underdog.  That's the opportunity the oddsmakers have given up Saturday, and we'll take advantage.  The Mets will bounce back from a loss in Game 1 to the Pirates behind their ace.

Matt Harvey has gone 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in four road starts.  He's certainly showing no ill-effects of Tommy John surgery.

A.J. Burnett is having a tremendous season as well, but it's been uncharacteristic for him.  Burnett has really struggled in his last three starts against the Mets, giving up 17 earned runs over 17 innings for a 9.00 ERA, all three of which have come since August of last season.

The Mets are 14-5 in their last 19 during game 2 of a series.  New York is 6-2 in Harvey's last 8 starts overall.  The Pirates are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Take the Mets Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland.  I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece.

The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again.  He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers.  He single-handedly won the opener for them.

Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home.  They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much.  The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor.

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +104

The San Francisco Giants are in a massive letdown spot here.  They just swept the Los Angeles Dodgers last series.  What was so remarkable about the sweep is that the Dodgers didn't score a single run in three games.  It's only human nature for the Giants to have a letdown following such a big accomplishment against their biggest rivals.

The Giants will send the embattled Ryan Vogelsong to the mound.  Vogelsong is 2-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.487 WHIP over six starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has been terrible on the road, going 1-2 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in three starts away from home.

Kyle Kendrick is pitching much better of late in allowing 3 earned runs over 14 innings in back-to-back road starts against the Dodgers and Angels.  Vogelsong has been crushed in his last two starts at Colorado.  He has given up 13 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Coors Field.

Kendrick is 25-10 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher in his career.  The Giants are 1-7 in Vogelsong's last eight road starts.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Vogelsong's last five starts as a road favorite.  The Giants are 0-5 in Vogelsong's last five starts against Colorado.  Take the Rockies Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-112)

The Washington Nationals get the call today against the Philadelphia Phillies.  Instead of laying heavy -270 juice to back the Nationals on the money line, I'm going to save a ton of juice and take them on the run line in this one.

The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 10 of their last 12 wins have come by 2 runs or more.  Max Scherzer is 4-3 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan gets the ball for the Phillies.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one road start, which was a 7-2 loss at Washington against Scherzer on April 17th.  O'Sullivan is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Washington.

Scherzer is 8-0 against the run line (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 3-19 against the run line (-15.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +105 to +120 since 1997.  Scherzer is 9-0 against the run line (+9.0 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to -155 over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

I'm backing the UNDER tonight in Game 2 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.  The oddsmakers have once again set the number too high, failing to drop it from the 220-point total they set in Game 1.

These teams combined for 216 points in Game 1, and I expect Game 2 to be even more lower scoring.  Both teams even shot well at 46.5% for Houston and 46.7% for Golden State, yet they still couldn't eclipse the 220-point total.  James Harden and Stephen Curry couldn't miss in Game 1, too.

I believe there is some value with the UNDER in this game.  These teams have played five times this season and have averaged 215 combined points per game, giving us roughly five points of value here.  The UNDER is now 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series.

Golden State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 13-3 UNDER vs. poor free throw shooting teams that make 71% or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Rockets last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 games overall. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +117

The Chicago White Sox had won six in a row before losing the last two to the Indians in this series by a combined three runs.  I look for them to come back motivated to win Game 4 tonight and even this series.

We are getting the White Sox at an excellent price here due to the perceived mismatch on the mound.  If anything, the White Sox have the edge behind John Danks, who is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in three home starts this year.  He is also 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Danny Salazar is a big-time talent, but it hasn't transferred into the majors as he has been unable to consistently hold down a spot in Cleveland's rotation.  Salazar is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four road starts, and 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last three starts overall.  The right-hander is also 2-1 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in four career starts against Chicago.

Cleveland is 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Danks is 7-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Chicago is 4-0 in Danks' last 4 home starts.  These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago.  Take the White Sox Thursday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta PK

The Atlanta Hawks have won three out of four meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season with all three victories coming by eight points or more.  They earned the #1 seed in the East, yet they are getting treated like they aren't the best team in the East already in Game 1 as they are only a pick 'em at home.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Hawks, who have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-7 at home this year where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with Cleveland.

Cleveland's team defense will really be tested in this game.  They could focus in on Derrick Rose last series, but they can't focus in on any one Atlanta player.  Defensively, the Hawks actually have a stopper in DeMarre Carroll who can guard Lebron James as well as about anyone.  They can focus their defense on James and Kyrie Irving.

Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.   The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +118

The Los Angeles Angels should not be underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays today considering the big edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage and back the Angels at an excellent price as +118 underdogs.

Jered Weaver has been virtually untouchable in his last two starts.  He has beaten both the Astros and Orioles while allowing just one earned run and 10 base runners over 16 1/3 innings for a minuscule 0.55 ERA.  Weaver is 9-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 12 career starts against Toronto.

Drew Hutchison has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Yes, he's 3-0, but that's all luck with run support because he has posted a 6.17 ERA and 1.512 WHIP through eight starts.  Hutchison is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 53-24 in their last 77 vs. a team with a losing record.  Weaver is 90-44 (+32.9 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.  The Angels are 44-19 in their last 63 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Toronto is 1-6 in its last seven games overall.  Take the Angels Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10

The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it.

Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets.  They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1.

Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6.  The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series.  They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest.  These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State.  Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -122

The Miami Marlins are hungry for a victory.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight coming in, which has led to the firing of manager Mike Redmond.  New skipper Dan Jennings was a 2-3 loser in his debut yesterday in extra innings, but I believe he gets his first win today due to the edge the Marlins have on the mound.

Tom Koehler has gone 2-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance in 2015.  What I really like about Koehler is how well he has pitched at home.  He is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in three home starts this year.

Jeremy Hellickson's career has been in a downward spiral over the past three seasons.  It hasn't gotten any better in Arizona this year.  Hellickson is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in seven starts in 2015.  He has posted a 5.59 ERA and 2.070 WHIP in two career starts against Miami.

Hellickson is 2-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.  Hellickson is 0-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Marlins are 4-1 in Koehler's last 5 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on St. Louis Cardinals -113

After losing in 14 innings to the New York Mets last night to drop their third game in four days, the St. Louis Cardinals will come back motivated for a victory tonight.  I like their chances with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Michael Wacha has been one of the most underrated starters in the majors since he came into the league a few years ago.  Wacha has gone 5-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.069 WHIP In four road starts.  He sports a 2.81 ERA in three career starts against New York.

Jon Niese is having a solid season for the Mets at 3-3 with a 2.49 ERA.  However, he has been one of the luckiest starters in the league.  He has that low ERA in spite of a below-average 1.385 WHIP on the season.  He even has a 1.35 ERA in spite of a 1.450 WHIP in three home starts.  He's not going to continue getting away with putting so many runners on base without allowing runs.

The Cardinals are 11-1 in Wacha's last 12 starts overall, including a perfect 7-0 in his seven starts this season.  St. Louis is 40-15 in its last 55 starts as a favorite.  The Mets are 0-8 in their last eight games as an underdog.  New York is 2-9 in Niese's last 11 starts as a dog.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Cardinals/Mets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -124

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Matt Harvey and the New York Mets at this short of a price at home all season.  I'll take advantage and back them against the St. Louis Cardinals on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball tonight.

Harvey has shown no ill-effects of injury as he's clearly fully recovered.  He has gone 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three.  Harvey sports a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis as well.

John Lackey has pitched pretty well for St. Louis this season, going 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in seven starts.  However, he has been much better at home than on the road.  Lackey is 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.471 WHIP through three road starts in 2015.

The Mets are a sensational 14-1 (+12.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.  New York is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take this combined 23-1 system backing New York straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the Mets Monday.

15* Tigers/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -144

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tigers, including yesterday's 4-3 loss in 10 innings, I expect the St. Louis Cardinals to avoid the sweep and win Game 3 tonight at home.

Lance Lynn had the best season of his career last year and is quietly becoming one of the better starters in the National League.  He has picked up where he left off this season, going 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in seven starts.  He has struck out 51 batters in 41 1/3 innings as well.

Alfredo Simon is off to a solid start for Detroit, going 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in seven starts.  However, he has been great at home, but terrible on the road.  Simon has posted a 4.77 ERA in four road starts in 2015.

St. Louis is 31-9 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 straight games without a stolen base over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.  Lynn is 15-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2

After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more.

Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league.  He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series.  They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well.

Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +100

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing excellent value as road underdogs to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  They'll be motivated from blowing a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning yesterday to hand the Phillies their third consecutive victory, which has them overvalued.

Arizona has a massive edge on the mound in this game behind the underrated Archie Bradley.  The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed just four earned runs and nine hits in 20 innings of work.

Jerome Williams is one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in seven starts this season for Philadelphia, including 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA in his last three.

Philadelphia is 13-31 (-23.9 Units) against the money line after three straight wins by two runs or less since 1997.  Arizona is 4-0 in Bradley's last four starts.  The Phillies are 0-9 in their last nine during Game 2 of a series.  Philadelphia is 4-14 in its last 18 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -119

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a massive edge on the mound tonight, and they should be much bigger road favorites over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies as a result.  Philly is just 13-23 on the season, hitting .232 and scoring 2.9 runs per game.  Arizona is hitting .268 and scoring 4.9 runs per game this year.

Chase Anderson has been the clearly ace of Arizona's staff this year.  He has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.101 WHIP over six starts in 2015.  Anderson has been at his best on the road, sporting a 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts away from home.

Chad Billingsley is washed up and wouldn't make most rotations in the majors.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two starts this season. allowing 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 innings of work.

Philadelphia is 6-19 (-15.4 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win.  Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Phillies are 4-14 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

After going over the total in three of four games to open this series, the Hawks and Wizards played in a very low scoring Game 5 that saw just 163 combined points.  I look for Game 6 to follow suit in this elimination game that will be played with high defensive intensity.

The longer a series goes on, the lower-scoring it usually gets because teams are so familiar with one another.  Yes, John Wall is back to lead the Wizards' offense, but he is only a shell of himself while playing with a fractured hand.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 59-30 (66.3%) since 1996.

Atlanta is 12-1 to the UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.  The Hawks are 17-5 to the UNDER when leading in a playoff series since 1996.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -157

I don't normally lay this much juice in baseball.  However, there are certain situations where it is warranted, and I believe this is one of them.  The Reds have such a huge advantage on the mound over the Giants in this one.

Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender year in and year out.  He has gone 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in seven starts, so 2015 has been no exception.  Cueto has been virtually untouchable at home, going 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.591 WHIP in three starts, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 22 innings.

What really excites me is the head-to-head matchup.  Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.96 RA and 0.982 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco.  Tim Lincecum is 0-4 with a 9.79 ERA and 1.780 WHIP in six career starts against Cincinnati.  Lincecum has allowed a combined 16 earned runs over 8 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

The Reds are 37-14 in Cueto's last 51 home starts.  Cincinnati is 48-17 in Cueto's last 65 starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  The Reds are 51-19 in Cueto's last 70 starts as a favorite.  The Giants are 0-9 in Lincecum's last nine road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Lincecum's last six road starts.  The Giants are 0-5 in Lincecum's last five starts as a road dog.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Take the Reds Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -102

The New York Yankees are simply overvalued due to their hot 21-13 start to the season.  They should not be the favorites today against the Tampa Bay Rays (18-16), who clearly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Tampa Bay will be giving the ball to Nate Karns, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the game with 38 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings.  Karns also sports a 2.79 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in two starts against the Yankees in 2015.

Adam Warren gets the ball for New York.  He has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six starts.  Warren has been at his worst on the road with a 7.04 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts away from home.  Warren has posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in two starts against Tampa Bay this season.

The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 8-3 in their last 11 home games overall.  Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -125

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as small home favorites to the Minnesota Twins Tuesday.  The Twins are off to a surprising 18-14 start this season, but they are also overvalued now as a result.

Detroit gives the ball to Alfredo Simon, who has been dominant in the early going.  Simon is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two home starts.  In his lone career start against Minnesota, Simon allowed one earned run over eight innings of an 8-1 victory.

Kyle Gibson has pitched tremendously at home for Minnesota this season, but it has been a different story on the road.  Gibson is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in three road starts in 2015.  Plus, Gibson hates facing the Tigers, as he's 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Minnesota is 16-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons.  Simon is 18-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Tigers Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -144

The Washington Nationals are absolutely rolling right now.  They have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to get to 17-15 on the season and to play up to their potential for the first time all year.  I look for them to add another one in the win column Monday.

Washington sends ace Max Scherzer to the mound tonight.  The right-hander is dominating the National League as expected, going 2-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.937 WHIP with 49 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings.  In his lone career start against Arizona, Scherzer allowed one earned run over 7 innings of a 3-1 victory.

Josh Collmenter is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  While he's one of Arizona's best starters, that really isn't saying much.  Collmenter has gone 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six starts this season.  He'll be up against a Washington team that has scored 5 or more runs in four straight games coming in.

The Diamondbacks are 16-39 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 15-36 in its last 51 games following a win.  The Diamondbacks are 12-39 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Arizona is 18-42 in its last 60 games as an underdog.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Collmenter's last 6 starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 217.5

The Clippers and Rockets have gone OVER the total in all three games to open this series.  They've combined for 218, 224 and 223 points.  As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to set the highest total they have yet this series in Game 4.

That has provided us with a ton of line value to swoop in and back the UNDER tonight.  This 217.5-point total is 5.5 points more than the 212-point Game 1 total.  That fact alone allows you to see that there is value with this UNDER in Game 4.

The defensive intensity in this game will be more than it has been at any other point in the series.  The Rockets are looking at this game like a must-win, while the Clippers realize they can grab a hold of the series with a win to go up 3-1.  I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively as a result.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 66-29 (69.5%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 41-9 (82%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +117

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Chicago White Sox today in the finale of this interleague series.  They have the better starter on the mound and the better lineup to boot.

Michael Lorenzen is a little-known starter, which is why he gets no respect.  Lorenzen is off to a great start this season, going 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts.  He gave up just one earned run over six innings of a 7-1 victory at Pittsburgh last time out.

John Danks has completely lost it and hasn't been struggling for three years now.  The left-hander is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.540 WHIP over five starts in 2015.  His last start was cut short after he allowed 7 runs, 3 earned, in 2 1/3 innings against the Twins.

The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.  Chicago is 4-11 in Danks' last 15 starts.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last 7 starts as a favorite.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Danks' last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109

The Los Angeles Angels should be much heavier home favorites over the Houston Astros tonight.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price here.  You'll rarely get the opportunity to back them as this small of home favorites.

Los Angeles is undervalued right now due to its mediocre 14-16 start to the season.  Meanwhile, Houston is overvalued due to leading the AL West with a 19-11 record.  Well, the Astros have come back down to reality, going 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 8 runs in the process.

Matt Shoemaker is coming off his best start of the season.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings while striking out 10.  All three runs came on solo homers as he only allowed four hits the entire game.  Shoemaker got the win in his lone career starts against Houston last year, giving up 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-2 victory.

Dallas Keuchel sports a 4.47 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in eight career starts against Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-2 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-2 in Shoemaker's last 13 starts vs. AL West opponents.  The Astros are 37-77 in their last 114 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Angels Saturday.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -114

The San Diego Padres should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight with the edge they have on the mound in this one.  I'll gladly take advantage of this gift from the oddsmakers Friday.  The Padres will be motivated following an 11-0 loss yesterday in Game 1 of this series.

James Shields has made a smooth transition to the National League.  The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has struck out a whopping 48 batters in 36 1/3 innings.

Jeremy Hellickson doesn't even belong as a starting pitcher in the big leagues.  He is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two home starts.  Hellickson is also 0-1 with a 7.42 ERA in two career starts against San Diego.

Shields is 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.  Shields is 14-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 5-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.  Hellickson is 0-9 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Padres Friday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers +155

Great value here on the Texas Rangers, who are playing their best baseball of the season coming in.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three games while outscoring the AL West-leading Houston Astros 20-5 in the process.  Their bats have really gotten going in their last two games as they've combined for 18 runs.

With the way Nick Martinez has been pitching in the early going, he has no business being this big of an underdog tonight folks.  Martinez is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.84 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five starts, allowing just 3 earned runs over 32 innings of work.

Chris Archer is deservedly getting some respect here, but it's too much.  He's 3-3 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts this season, but he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Baltimore.  Archer can't be expected to get much run support considering the Rays are hitting .234 and scoring 3.6 runs per game.

Tampa Bay is 1-7 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in home games after seven or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 3-8 in Archer's last 11 home starts.  The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas is 5-0 in Martinez's last five starts.  Bet the Rangers Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +145

The Cincinnati Reds have won six of their last nine games overall to improve to 14-13 on the season.  The Pittsburgh Pirates come in struggling mightily, having lost five straight while scoring a combined 5 runs in those five contests.

It won't get any easier for the Pirates today against Anthony Desclafini, who is 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in five starts this season for the Reds.  He has given up just 7 earned runs and 29 base runners over 31 innings of work.

A.J. Burnett should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He is off to a fluky start where he has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in five outings, but he's nowhere near that caliber of a pitcher and won't live up to those numbers going forward.

Pittsburgh is 0-7 (-8.4 Units) against the money line with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent this season.  Burnett is 10-24 (-12.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 26-56 in their last 82 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Reds Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1.  They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul.  The Rockets won't make the same mistake again.  Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2.

Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful.  It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1.  The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again.

This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems.  It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game.  This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record.  This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries.

Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season.  Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will take part in a slug fest tonight.  These are two of the better offensive teams in baseball as the Blue Jays are putting up 5.4 runs per game, while the Yankees are scoring 4.9 runs per game.

These two lineups will be up against two over-the-hill starters that are way past their primes.  Both teams have been feasting on left-handers.  The Yankees are scoring 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters, while the Blue Jays are putting up 5.7 per game against southpaws.

C.C. Sabathia has been terrible over the last three seasons.  He is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in five starts in 2015.  He has given up 8 earned runs over 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays for a 6.17 ERA.

Mark Buehrle is struggling mightily this year.  He has gone 3-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander is 1-14 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 21 career starts against New York.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 15 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 9-1 in Buehrle's last 10 home starts.  The OVER is 14-3 in Buehrle's last 17 starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5.  The OVER is 10-1 in Yankees last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  The OVER is 35-14-2 in Sabathia's last 51 starts during Game 3 of a series.  The OVER is 5-0 in Buehrle's last five starts vs. New York.  The OVER is 21-7-2 in Toby Basner's last 30 games behind home plate.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -119

The San Diego Padres will be motivated to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to the Giants and ace Madison Bumgarner yesterday.  Now, the Padres are the team with the massive edge on the mound in this one.

Andrew Cashner is one of the most underrated starters in the league.  He has posted a 2.61 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 31 innings in five starts this season.  Cashner sports a 4.25 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in five career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong has struggled to remain in the rotation over the last couple years.  That's the case again in 2015 as he's 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 2.021 WHIP over three starts and two relief appearances.  He has already allowed 8 homers in 19 1/3 innings.  Vogelsong is 4-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in 10 career starts against San Diego.

The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  San Diego is 27-12 in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Padres are 4-0 in Cashner's last four starts with 5 days of rest.  The Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Padres Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point.  They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game.

The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won.  They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104.  As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.

Washington has some serious injury issues right now.  Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective.  John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor.  If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out.  Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%.

Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot.  Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 1 No-Brainer on UNDER 212

With Chris Paul likely out for the Clippers, I look for them to be a little lost offensively.  Their offense only goes as he goes.  That's a big reason why I'm taking the UNDER in this Game 1 Monday.

Another reason is how the season series has played out.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings dating back to last year.

The Clippers and Rockets have combined for 198, 215, 205 and 187 points in their four meetings this season.  That's an average of 201.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 212.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value on the run line today with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the worst team in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers and the struggling Kyle Lohse.

The 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP winner isn't off to the greatest start in 2015, but he is still 1-2 with a respectable 3.73 ERA, including 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse has been brutal in the early going.  He has gone 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA through five starts.  Lohse has allowed 8 homers and 24 earned runs over 29 2/3 innings this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 20-5 against the run line (+15.7 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.  Kershaw is 13-2 against the run line (+11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Los Angeles is 22-4 against the run line (+19.2 Units) in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-12 against the run line (-13.4 Units) in night games this season.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* Yankees/Red Sox AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -135

The Boston Red Sox are going to be highly motivated for a victory against their hated AL East rivals in the New York Yankees tonight.  Boston has lost the first two games of this series, and I'm banking on them not getting swept at home.

I like what I've seen from Joe Kelly, who has just a mediocre 4.94 ERA in spite of a superb 1.098 WHIP in four starts this season.  Kelly has never lost to the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Adam Warren is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in four starts in 2015 for the Yankees.  Warren has been at his worst on the road, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts away from home.

Kelly is 17-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.  The Yankees are 16-33 in their last 49 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Boston is 6-1 in Kelly's last seven starts.  The Red Sox are 4-0 in Kelly's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5

The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1.

The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points.  The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire.

Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games.  Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.  Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -129

The San Diego Padres are showing solid value as small home favorites to the Colorado Rockies Saturday.  There hasn't been a worse road team in MLB over the past two seasons than Colorado.

Like so many other San Diego pitchers before him, Brandon Morrow has revived his career with the Padres.  He's 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in four starts in 2015.

Jorge De La Rosa has been a great pitcher to back at home, but it's been a different story on the road. In 2015, he is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two starts.  De La Rosa has also posted a 4.98 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in 20 career starts against San Diego.

De La Rosa has faced the Padres once in 2015.  He gave up 9 runs, 7 earned, in 2 innings of a 3-14 loss on April 20th.  The Rockies are 13-45 in their last 58 road games.  Colorado is 11-44 in its last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Padres Saturday.

20* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 204

Games in the playoffs tend to get lower scoring as the series goes on.  The intensity picks up, and teams become more familiar with one another.  With everything on the line in a Game 7, the defensive intensity is magnified even more, and the rim becomes smaller for shooters.

These teams combined for 198 points in Game 6.  That was the second-lowest scoring game of the series as they combined for 199 in Game 1.  Game 7 will be the lowest-scoring game yet.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough.  This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road.

The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series.  The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.  That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East.  It's time to separate themselves from the pack.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals +100

I've been a huge Washington backer here the last few days.  I'm riding them again tonight because they are hitting the cover off the ball.

The Nationals have scored 34 combined runs the past three days while going 3-0.  While I don't expect them to put up another big number today, what they will put up will be enough to win this game.

They send the AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer to the mound, and he's been unstoppable again.  Scherzer has posted a 1.26 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in four starts in 2015.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in four career starts against New York.

Washington is 31-10 (+17.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.  Scherzer is  29-7 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  Take Washington Friday.

20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.  I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight.  They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5.

Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4.  It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well.  This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation.

The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late.  In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall.  They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort.  Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -104

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight wins thanks to an offense that has put up a combined 26 runs in back-to-back wins over the Braves.  Now, they take dead aim at the NL East-leading New York Mets tonight.

Even though Stephen Strasburg has struggled a bit in the early going, I still believe the Nationals have the edge on the mound tonight.  Strasburg owns the Mets, going 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Jacob DeGromm is a solid second-year starter, but he's not on Strasburg's level.  DeGrom has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in two career starts against them.  The Mets went 0-2 in those two contests.

The Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Speaking of owning the Mets, Washington is 46-17 in its last 63 meetings with New York.  It is 16-4 in 20 visits to New York over the last three seasons.  Washington is 4-1 in Strasburg's last five road starts vs. New York.  Take the Nationals Thursday.

20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3.  His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0.

Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage.  They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard.  After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win.

I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright.  C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games.

Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight.  Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox have been the biggest OVER team in the league to this point.  The are 15-6 OVER in 21 games this year as they are scoring 5.2 runs and giving up 5.6 runs per game.  Toronto is 12-8-1 OVER in all games, scoring 5.5 runs and giving up 5.2 runs per game.

The scoring should continue tonight with Rick Porcello and R.A. Dickey on the mound.  Dickey has gone 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.375 WHIP through four starts this season, while Porcello has gone 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.440 WHIP through four starts.

Porcello has really struggled against Toronto, going 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts.  He has allowed 12 earned runs over 18 innings in his last three starts against the Blue Jays.  Dickey is 5-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 road games.  The OVER is 12-4 in Boston's last 16 home games.  The OVER is 14-3 in Red Sox last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 20-7 in Red Sox last 27 games overall.  These teams have combined for 30 runs in the first two games of this series.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive.  Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months.  They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime.  They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward.

Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game.  San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home.  The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs.

The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +103

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory.  They are 7-13 on the season and eight games back in the NL East already.  They have lost six straight coming in.  It's safe to say that they won't be lacking any motivation tonight against the Atlanta Braves.

The reason the Nationals aren't getting respect from the books is because A.J. Cole is making his major league debut.  However, Cole has posted a 2.40 ERA in three starts at Triple-A Syracuse.  He was 13-3 in 25 games between Double-and-Triple-A in 2014, and he posted a 4.22 ERA in four games this spring.

Julio Teheran is off to a shaky start in 2015.  He has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four starts.  Teheran has allowed 9 earned runs over 9 1/3 innings with four homers allowed in his last two starts to the Blue Jays and Mets.

Plays on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL), after two straight losses by 4 runs or more are 43-18 (70.5%, +28.4 units) since 1997.  The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Atlanta is 0-5 in its last five games following a win.  The Braves are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a favorite.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -112

The Miami Marlins could not possibly be more motivated for a win than they will be Tuesday.  They blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th inning to lose 3-1 to the Mets on Monday, falling to 0-5 against their NL East rivals this season.  They are desperate to put an end to this skid and pick up their first win of the season against New York.

I really like their chances with the way they've been playing of late, and with the edge they have on the mound.  Miami has won five of its last six games overall while scoring a combined 33 runs in the process.

David Phelps has been solid in two starts this season, going 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.771 WHIP while allowing just one earned run and nine base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Rafael Montero, who sports a 4.15 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in four relief appearances.  Montero will be making his first start of the season tonight.

Miami is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last two seasons.  New York is 0-6 in Montero's last six starts as an underdog.  The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 188

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Chicago.  This is Game 5 of the series, and as a series goes on, the games tend to get lower-scoring with both teams becoming more and more familiar with one another.

This has already been a pretty low-scoring series with all four games seeing 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  They combined for 194 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, but then just 173 in Game 2, 190 in Game 3, and 182 in Game 4.

In fact, each of the last 13 meetings in this series have seen 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 188 points.

The UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games vs.  a team with a winning percentage from .400 to .490.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -114

The Miami Marlins are going to be out for revenge tonight against the New York Mets.  They were swept in four games by the Mets in their first series this season.  However, they are now playing their best baseball of the season having won five straight while outscoring the opposition 32-6 in the process.

Jarred Cosart continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the game.  The right-hander has gone 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in three starts this season.  He went 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 starts for the Marlins last season.

Dillon Gee has struggled in the early going in 2015.  He has gone 0-1 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three starts this season.  I look for the Mets to have a bit of a letdown here following their Subway Series rivalry with the New York Yankees over the weekend, where they lost two out of three.

The Mets are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  New York is 2-5 in Gee's last 7 road starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in their last five games overall.  Take the Marlins Monday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -121

The Washington Nationals are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to their five-game losing streak.  They will get back on track against an Atlanta team that is faltering as well having lost five of its last six games overall.

Doug Fister has picked up right where he left off last season.  The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three starts in 2015.  Fister has never lost to Atlanta, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves.

Eric Stults has faltered a bit in the early going.  He has gone 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts, including 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in two home starts.  Stults is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in three career starts against Washington as well.

Plays on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) - with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL), cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games are 89-33 (73%, +44 units) since 1997. 

The Nationals are 7-1 in Fister's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Washington is 20-8 in Fister's last 28 starts.  The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Nationals Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1.  I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance.

There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. 

That's not going to happen again.  That performance has also helped create some line value here.  The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines.  I believe this is a classic overreaction.

Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -111

The Washington Nationals come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have now lost four straight games after last night's 8-0 loss to the Miami Marlins.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry to get a win and avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with the steady Gio Gonzalez on the mound.  Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in three starts this season.  He owns the Marlins, going 6-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Dan Haren is off to a solid start this year for Miami, but he is overvalued as a result.  He is well past his prime and has not performed well in recent years as he continues to get older and lose speed on his fastball.

Haren is 5-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 Sunday games.  Washington is 4-0 in its last four after losing the first 2 games of a series.

The Nationals are 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Washington is 33-13 in Gonzalez's last 46 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last five starts vs. Miami.  Take Washington Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres +109

The San Diego Padres are highly motivated for a victory Saturday as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They have lost three in a row coming in, and they are 1-3 against the rival Dodgers this season.  They will be digging deep to get a win today as a result.

Ian Kennedy went 13-13 with a 3.63 ERA last season.  He will be making his second start of 2015 today after not allowing a run in 2 2/3 innings in his first start before leaving due to injury.  Kennedy has allowed just 4 earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

Brandon McCarthy is getting too much respect here as the favorite.  He is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts this season.  McCarthy went 5-11 with a 4.53 ERA in 2013 and 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA in 2014.  He doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from the oddsmakers.  He has also allowed at least 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against San Diego.

McCarthy is 1-15 (-16.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that he has consistently been overvalued on the road when favored and hasn't been able to live up to expectations.  Meanwhile, Kennedy is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.  Take the Padres Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA.  Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4.

The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better.  I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0.  They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4.

New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is.  It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3.

New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. 

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime.  They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series.  They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game.  That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury.

The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall.  Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State.

In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests.  That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread.  Take the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/White Sox OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low for this game tonight between the Royals and White Sox inside hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.  I look for both teams to put up their fair share of runs given the starting pitching matchup.

Danny Duffy has gone 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three starts this season.  Duffy is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.  In his last two starts against the White Sox, he has given up 9 earned runs over 7 innings.

Jose Quintana is 1-1 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is 0-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 career starts against Kansas City.  In his last two starts against the Royals, Quintana has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 6-0 in Royals last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The OVER is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts vs. White Sox.  These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the OVER.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 214.5

The NBA playoffs are pretty predictable every year.  Series get lower and lower scoring as they go on on average because teams become more and more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.

That happened from Game 1 to Game 2 as they scored 226 points in Game 1 and 210 points in Game 2.  I expect an even lower-scoring affair in Game 3 tonight, especially with the way these teams have played in recent meetings.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 meetings.  They have combined for 193, 187, 211, 209, 226 and 210 points.  Given those numbers alone, it's easy to see why there is some value on this UNDER in Game 3 tonight.

Dallas is 13-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5

I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2.  I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more.  They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs.

The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors.  Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points.

The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA.  The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS.  Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public.

New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season.  It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot.  It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch.  With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight.

The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego Padres -110

The San Diego Padres will bounce back today following a disappointing 5-4 loss to the Rockies last night after blowing a 4-3 lead in the 8th inning.  I look for them to get back on the winning track due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.  They have gone 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.

Tyson Ross has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the past couple seasons.  He posted a 3.17 ERA in 2013 and a 2.81 ERA in 2014 over 31 starts.  Ross sports a 3.21 ERA in five career starts against Colorado.

Jordan Lyles has not had any success in the big leagues.  He has gone 22-34 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.428 WHIP over 90 career starts and seven relief appearances.  Lyles is 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.834 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego, and he hasn't face a Padres' lineup as potent as the one he'll be up against today.

San Diego is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Lyles is 7-31 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.  The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego is 7-2 in Ross' last 9 starts as a favorite.  The Rockies are 24-55 in their last 79 games as an underdog.  Colorado is 1-8 in Lyles' last 9 starts vs. NL West.  The Rockies are 1-7 in Lyles' last 8 starts as an underdog.  Take the Padres Thursday.