Winning Sports Picks

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Washington State/USC OVER 146

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and 6-1 OVER at home.  The Trojans have some of the best talent in the entire country offensively, but they play very little defense.

We have really seen that play out over the past couple months with the OVER 9-1 in USC's last 10 games overall.  USC and their opponents have combined for 156 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  So this 146-point total is very low for a game involving USC.

The Trojans will control the tempo playing at home and will force Washington State to run with them.  Washington State just played a 89-84 shootout with Oregon last time out in a game that saw 173 combined points.  Oregon has a similar profile to USC.

USC is 8-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  USC and Washington State combined for 150 and 152 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah +7

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with six outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

We'll gladly take advantage again tonight and back the Jazz catching 7 points at home to the Denver Nuggets.  The highlights during this run include an upset home win over the Heat by 8, an upset home win over the Mavericks by 27, an upset road win at Philadelphia by 11 and an upset road win at Milwaukee by 16.  The Jazz will have no problem getting motivated to face the defending champs tonight.

The Nuggets have benefited from a home-heavy, soft schedule here of late with six of their last even games at home.  Their lone road game during this stretch was a 3-point win at Golden State at the buzzer.  The road games prior were all single-digit wins over the Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls and Hawks.  The Nuggets have just one road win all season by double-digits.  They are 11-8 SU but 7-12 ATS on the highway this season.

Utah is 11-5 SU & 12-3-1 ATS at home this season.  The Jazz are 51-26 ATS in their last 77 games as underdogs, including 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Utah is 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors OVER 233.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are without their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are also without Chris Paul, who slows down the tempo on offense when he's in there.  So him being out benefits the OVER.

The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five games overall with 236 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is too short considering the opponent in the Pelicans, who have scored 117 or more points in seven of their last eight road games, including 133 against the Kings last time out.

New Orleans is 13-5 OVER in its last 18 games following an UNDER.  The Warriors are 26-13 OVER in their last 39 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Golden State is 16-4 OVER following an ATS loss this season.  The Warriors are 9-1 OVER vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%) this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The Golden State Warriors are broken right now without Draymond Green, Gary Payton II and Chris Paul.  There is just too much on Steph Curry's shoulders.  The Warriors are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins both coming at home over the Magic by 6 and the Pistons by 4.  They are coming off a 15-point home loss to the Raptors, and also lost by 12 at home to Miami and by 10 at home to Dallas.

The Pelicans are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  They beat the Kings by 33, the Timberwolves by 11, the Cavaliers by 19, the Spurs by 36, the Hornets by 5, the Wizards by 20 and the Kings by 10 with six of those seven wins by double-digits.  They are rolling on the road right now and should not be underdogs to the Warriors tonight.

Golden State is 6-14 ATS in home games this season.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  Indiana State is the best team in the MVC this season and will prove it once again tonight.  The Sycamores are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  Their two losses came on the road at Alabama and on the road at Michigan State.  But they beat Bradley 85-77 on the road, and many expect Bradley to compete for a conference title alongside Drake.

Drake is 12-3 against a very soft schedule that ranks 265th in the country, about 110 spots easier than the slate Indiana State has faced.  The Bulldogs are coming off a 22-point loss at Belmont despite being 5.5-point favorites.  They also lost were also upset at UAB three games ago, and that's a UAB team that is way down this season.  They lost by 24 on a neutral to Stephen F. Austin earlier this season as well.  This team is way overrrated.

Indiana State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Sycamores are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Heat OVER 233

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 232 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games, 235 or more eight times and 249 or more six of those.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Miami Heat have been more of an under team of late but a lot of that has to do with who they have played against.  They did just combine for 233 points with the Rockets with a 220-point total in their last game.  The Thunder will speed them up and make them play faster, and the Heat lose a lot defensively with the injuries they have right now.

The OVER is 5-1 in Heat last six home games.  Oklahoma City is 14-6 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The OVER is 15-4 in Thunder last 19 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall playing Memphis (lost by 8), Milwaukee (lost by 4) and Cleveland (lost by 2) all tough and down to the wire.  They haven't been rewarded with victories for their solid play, but they will be rewarded tonight with a blowout victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons.

The spot really favors the Spurs tonight.  They come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days.  The blew a 22-point home lead to the Kings last night and wound up losing by 21 points.

The Pistons were playing more competitive basketball of late but then lost their best player in Cade Cunningham to injury.  They were blown out in the 2nd half by the Nuggets in a 17-point loss after losing Cunningham in the 1H the game prior.  They just don't stand much of a chance of being competitive without him.

Detroit is 3-11 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They just played two consecutive games against the Boston Celtics at home.  After losing the first meeting, they got their revenge in the rematch with a 133-131 victory.  Now they are primed for a big letdown here against the Washington Wizards.

The cost of that victory was a big one, too.  They lost their best player in Tyrese Haliburton to a hamstring injury that is going to sideline him for at least two weeks.  Haliburton was having a MVP-caliber season averaging 23.6 points per game and 12.5 assists per game while shooting 40% from 3, 50% from the floor and 87% from the FT line.  The Pacers go as Haliburton goes.

They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight without him.  The Wizards have played their best basketball on the road this season going 12-8 ATS on the highway.  They just beat the Pacers 137-123 as 8.5-point home dogs in their last meeting even with Haliburton.  They will hang tough tonight and possibly pull off the upset again.

Washington is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games off a non-conference game.  The Wizards are 91-58 ATS in their last 159 games off five or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 7-0 ATS n road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Wizards.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson/Virginia Tech UNDER 145

Both Clemson and Virginia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  Clemson is coming off two consecutive losses and Virginia Tech is off two consecutive losses as well.  So we know both teams will be going all out defensively to try and avoid a 3-game skid.

This total is too high when you look at the profiles of these two teams.  Clemson ranks 245th in adjusted tempo and 52nd in adjusted defense.  Virginia Tech ranks 201st in adjusted tempo and 64th in adjusted defense.  So both teams play at below-average paces, and both are among the better defensive teams in the country.

When you look at head-to-head history, this total is too high as well.  Clemson and Virginia Tech played twice last season and combined for 133 points in their first meeting and just 101 points in their 2nd meeting.  In fact, Clemson and Virginia Tech have combined for 133 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 141 or less at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -7

It was always going to take some time for Rick Pitino to get the St. John's Red Storm gelling in his first season as head coach.  Well, the time is now as they are playing their best basketball of the season.

St. John's is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall and has been grossly undervalued.  The Red Storm have impressive wins over Utah by 9, Xavier by 15, Butler by 16 and Villanova by 10 during this stretch.  They also had an impressive road loss by 4 as 11-point dogs at UConn to show what they are really capable of.

Now the Red Storm host a Providence team that just lost second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) two games ago to a season-ending injury.  The Friars were upset at home by Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in the game they lost Hopkins.  They also lost by 9 at Creighton in their first full game without him over the weekend.  I expect them to lose by 8-plus on the road tonight to the Red Storm as well.

St. John's is 7-0 ATS after winning three of its last four games this season.  The Red Storm are 7-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or lower this season.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +5

The Toronto Raptors have been playing very well since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their four games since the trade with their only loss coming at Sacramento by 5 as 4.5-point dogs after the Kings made two free throws with almost no time left.

They beat the Cavaliers at home, upset the Grizzlies on the road and upset the Warriors by 15 on the road.  The Raptors have now scored 124 or more points in four of their last five games as their offensive efficiency is through the roof.

This is a great spot to fade the Lakers.  They are coming off an upset home win over the Clippers last time out, and now they have another huge game against the Phoenix Suns on deck Thursday.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot for them and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Raptors as they were to beat the Clippers, or as they will be to beat the Suns.

The Lakers have been grossly overvalued for a month now.  They are 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They should not be 5-point favorites over the Raptors tonight with the way these teams are trending.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5

I love the spot for Rutgers tonight.  The Scarlet Knights will be highly motivated for a victory coming off two consecutive road losses to open Big Ten play by 4 at Ohio State and by 9 at Iowa.  They have one of the biggest home-court advantages in the Big Ten and are 7-1 SU at home this season.

The Indiana Hoosiers will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season.  They did pull the upset at Michigan by 3, but we are quickly seeing how Michigan is a very flawed team going just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall with losses to McNeese State and Long Beach State.  That win doesn't look that impressive now.  In their other road game, they lost 86-70 at Nebraska as 4.5-point dogs.

Rutgers simply owns Indiana, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with their lone loss coming by 6 on the road.  They beat Indiana 63-48, 74-63, 59-50 and 66-58 in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Hoosiers.

Indiana is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK.  Rutgers is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +125

The Houston Cougars are 14-0 this season.  They have once again benefited from playing the 171st-ranked schedule in the country, plus a home-heavy schedule in the non-conference at that.  But now they must face their stiffest test of the season on the road against a Big 12 opponent in the Iowa State Cyclones.

Houston has only played one true road game this season and struggled in a 66-60 win as 8.5-point favorites at Xavier.  The Cougars aren't used to having to play in hostile road atmospheres after previously playing in the American Athletic.  The Big 12 highway is a different animal, especially at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA.

Iowa State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  The Cyclones are outscoring opponents by a whopping 38.1 points per game at home.  We don't need the points tonight.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are as healthy as they have been all season, which is a big reason they are playing so well right now.  They should not be catching double-digits on the road to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

The Bucks will be without Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne tonight, so they will be short-handed.  The Jazz can shift their focus to just trying to stop Giannis now.  The Bucks are a dangerous team when both of those guys are healthy, but they are closer to an average team without one of Lillard or Giannis.  Milwaukee is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.

Utah is 50-26 ATS in its last 76 games as an underdog.  The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive road games.  They are coming off a 120-109 upset win at Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them upset the Bucks tonight.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* Washington/Michigan CFP Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  The month break allowed these players to get healthy as well as several other players healthy on defense.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

It paid off in a 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl.  That final score doesn't really show how dominant the Huskies really were over the Longhorns.  They just managed to make it interesting late.  The Huskies racked up 532 total yards in the win.  Washington's offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award for the nation's top offensive line, was the key to victory.  They held a previously dominant Texas defensive line in check and gave Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to find his 3 NFL receivers and others.  Penix Jr. finished 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  He is the best QB in the country and now he is showing it on the national stage.  And I trust this Washington offensive line to keep him clean against Michigan's fearsome front.

I know RB Dillon Johnson got hurt at the end of that game against Texas and will try to play through the pain, which isn't ideal.  However, Washington knows its best game plan is to throw the ball as many times as possible against this Michigan defense.  Michigan's defense is similar to Texas in that they are tough to run on, but they haven't been tested through the air much at all this season thanks to a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The best QB's they faced were McCord of Ohio State, Tagovailoa of Maryland, Allar of Penn State and Milroe of Alabama.  

None of those four QB's can sling it like Penix Jr. can with precision accuracy.  And Michigan hasn't faced a trio of receivers like they will be up against in this one.  I like the fact that Michigan only gets one week to prepare for Washington's high-octane offense.  That's not enough time.  I trust Kalen DeBoer over Jim Harbaugh to make the right adjustments in this short amount of time.

Washington's defense is the most underrated unit of the entire college football playoff.  They are a bend but don't break bunch.  They do give up yards, but they are one of the best red zone defenses in the country.  They will stack the box to stop the run and try and make JJ McCarthy try and beat them through the air.  Washington's cornerbacks are certainly a strength with their tremendous ball skills, and McCarthy won't be able to beat them often.

Michigan was lucky to beat Alabama needing a late TD to force OT and then winning in OT.  Well, Texas beat Alabama by 10 on the road, and Washington just dominated Texas.  Also, the Wolverines benefited from playing on a slick grass field in the Rose Bowl to help counter Alabama's speed.  They won't have that same luxury against Washington with this game being played inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Washington's speed on the fast track will be a huge advantage for them.  This is an ACC officiating crew, and they called pass interference at a higher rate than any other officiating crew in the country.  That will certainly benefit Washington's pass-happy attack.

Washington is 21-0 SU in its last 21 games overall including 10-0 vs AP Top 10 teams during this span.  DeBoer is 8-1 ATS as a head coach as an underdog, including 7 outright victories of those nine.  DeBoer is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Bet Washington in the CFP Championship Game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Wizards OVER 244.5

The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall.  They have combined for 249 or more points with their opponents in five of those nine games, so getting over 244.5 tonight isn't asking too much when you consider their opponent.

The Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They face a Thunder team that ranks 6th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  The Thunder have scored at least 115 points in 14 consecutive games now.  The Wizards allow 126.1 points per game this season.

Washington is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 non-conference home games.  The Wizards are 12-4 OVER vs. good offensive teams that score 116-plus points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Warriors OVER 236.5

The Toronto Raptors have become a dead nuts OVER team since trading away their best defender in OG Anunoby to the Knicks and bringing in two scorers and poor defenders in RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley.  The OVER is 4-1 in Raptors last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have now gone for at least 232 combined points in seven of their last eight games overall as well.

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They also just lost Chris Paul to injury, and it's actually a good thing for Golden State OVERS to be without Paul because he doesn't push the tempo as much as they will without him.  The OVER is 3-1 in Warriors last four games overall with 252, 236 and 257 combined points in the three OVERS.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Raptors and Warriors with 246 and 236 combined points in their last two meetings.  Toronto is 12-4 OVER after playing a road game this season.  Golden State is 15-4 OVER following an ATS loss this season.  The Warriors are 25-13 OVER in their last 38 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +16.5

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy and have been much more competitive of late as a result.  Their 28-game losing streak has had them undervalued for a few weeks now.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Golden State, by 6 at Utah in OT, by 6 in Boston in OT and upset the Raptors. during this stretch.

Now I expect the Pistons to give the defending champion Nuggets a run for their money tonight.  The Nuggets have been overvalued due to winning the title last year.  They are kind of just going through the motions right now and won't be motivated at all to get margin on the Pistons.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost outright to the Thunder by 26 as 1.5-point favorites at home and outright to the Magic as 9.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Denver) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 27-3 (90%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pistons/Nuggets OVER 235

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy and are playing much more competitive basketball of late because of it.  The improvements have come on offense with the addition of sharp shooter Bojan Bogdanovic to the lineup.  The Pistons have scored at least 109 points in 10 consecutive games.  But they still rank 27th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets rank 7th in offensive rating and will get theirs.  But they have been soft defensively of late allowing 127 points to the Warriors and 122 to the Magic in their last two games, which went well OVER the total with 257 and 242 combined points, respectively.

The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 249 points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven games overall.  Detroit is 13-3 OVER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Magic OVER 238

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 20-12 in all Atlanta games this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games combining for 256 points with Washington, 279 with Oklahoma City and 266 with Indiana.

The OVER is 3-0 in Magic last three games overall combining for 236 points with Golden State, 273 with Sacramento and 242 with Denver.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Hawks and Magic with 239, 251, 259 and 233 combined points.

Orlando is 9-1 OVER after covering five or six of its last seven games this season.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after losing five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Magic are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Kings OVER 235.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team when playing at home.  They are 13-6 OVER in all home games this season where they are scoring 122.4 points per game and allowing 120.7 points per game.  They control the tempo when playing at home and like to push the pace.

Sacramento's last two home games saw 265 combined points with the Raptors and 273 combined points with the Magic.  Now they host a New Orleans Pelicans team that won't mind getting up and down with them at all.  This total is suppressed because the Pelicans shot terrible against the Clippers last game at 35.9%, keeping  this total lower than it should be.

The OVER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven road games where they have scored at least 117 points in six of those seven games.  That includes their 127-117 win in Sacramento on December 4th that saw 244 combined points.  It should be more of the same here in this rematch.

Sacramento is 15-4 OVER in its last 19 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -1

What more does Minnesota have to do to get some respect?  The Golden Gophers are 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS this season.  I'll keep backing them as long as the books are going to keep setting bad lines on them.  They should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Maryland Terrapins tonight.

Minnesota is 10-1 SU & 11-0 ATS at home this season.  Their lone loss came after blowing a 20-plus point lead to Missouri in the 2H to lose by 2.  They host a Maryland team that is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road this season with their lone win coming at lowly UCLA, which is getting upset by everything this season and is way down.  Maryland lost by 57-40 at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs and 65-53 at Indiana as 2-point dogs.

Minnesota is 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have two of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  The Cardinals allow 27.1 points per game and 357.5 yards per game including 31.0 points per game and 374.3 yards per game at home.  The Seahawks allow 365.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play on the season, and they are coming off a really poor performance against the Steelers.

Indeed, the Seahawks allowed 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They gave up 202 rushing yards and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news for their defense going up against an Arizona offense that rushed for 234 yards against the 49ers and 221 yards on the Eagles in two of their last three games.

Arizona just lit up Philadelphia's defense for 35 points and 449 total yards last week.  They will do what they want against this soft Seattle defense.  Seattle's offense put up 23 points and 369 yards on the Steelers last week.  They will be able to do whatever they want for the most part against this Arizona defense as well.  Arizona has allowed 406 or more yards in four of their last six games.

Arizona is a perfect 7-0 OVER at home this season.  Six of those seven games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Arizona home games are seeing an average of 55.0 combined points per game.  The conditions are perfect inside their dome which is a big reason for this.  So this total of 47.5 has been set too low for this matchup between two capable offenses and two dreadful defenses indoors.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Arizona with 52, 68 and 71 combined points in those three.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Arizona Cardinals likely put an end to Philadelphia's chances of winning the NFC East last week.  Now they have their sights set on their division rivals in the Seattle Seahawks.  They have a chance to end their season with an upset win this week.  Eliminated teams facing must-win teams are 100-64-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season since 1990.

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Arizona beat Philadelphia 35-31 last week and should have won by more.  They gained 449 yards on the Eagles and held them to just 275 yards, outgaining them by 174 yards.  They also outgained the 49ers three weeks ago, and those are two of the best teams in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks are a mess.  They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with both wins coming on last-second scores by 3 over the Eagles at home and by 3 over the Titans on the road.  They should not be laying 3 on the road to the Cardinals today.  The Seahawks gave up 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  Their defense is absolutely broken, and now they must try and defend this Arizona high-octane attack.

The Seahawks are without two starters on the offensive line in T Abraham Lucas and G Phil Haynes. T Jason Peters is questionable.  Defensively, they will be without DE Mario Edwards Jr., plus both NT Jarran Reed and LB Jordyn Brooks are questionable.  The Seahawks allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news going up against James Connor and the Cardinals, who rushed for 221 yards on the Eagles and 234 yards on the 49ers.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a non-conference game.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +5

The New York Giants want revenge from a 33-25 loss in Philadelphia two weeks ago.  The main reason that game was close is because the Giants replaced an ineffective Tommy DeVito with Tyrod Taylor at halftime.  Taylor threw for 133 yards and a score with a pick while also rushing for 21 yards on two carries as the Giants outscored the Eagles 22-13 with him in the lineup.

Taylor nearly led the Giants to an upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams last week.  They failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in a 26-25 loss, and they also missed a 54-yard FG that would have won it.  Taylor went 27-of-41 passing for 319 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for 40 yards on six carries.  He is clearly the best QB on the roster and the team believes in him.

The Philadelphia Eagles just lost 35-31 last week at home to the Arizona Cardinals.  A win would have put them in control of their own fate in the NFC East.  Now they need the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders as 13-point favorites this week to have a chance.  Deep down they know the Cowboys aren't losing, and when they see Dallas up big at halftime don't be surprised if the Eagles pull their starters in this one.  They need to get healthy for next week.

The Eagles are a very, banged up team.  They are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The problem is with their defense, which has allowed 25 points or more in five of their last six games and an average of 31.5 points per game during this stretch.  They just gave up 35 points and 449 yards to the Cardinals at home last week and were outgained by 174 yards by Arizona.  I think it's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they blew a 21-6 lead.

The Giants have no quit in them.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have been an undervalued commodity here down the stretch because of it.  I think Taylor and company can build off of what they did in the 2H against the Eagles two weeks ago and what they were able to do against the Rams last week.  They are pretty healthy right now, while the Eagles could be without WR Davonte Smith among others.

The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  The Giants are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Texans/Colts AFC South No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Indianapolis Colts are getting healthy are the right time on offense.  They just got RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman back from injury, and backup RB Zack Moss should return this week as well.  All three starting offensive linemen that were questionable earlier this week all got in practices on Thursday as well and should all play.

The Houston Texans just got QB CJ Stroud back from injury last week in time to beat the Titans 26-3.  Stroud makes all the difference for this offense as they were terrible without him.  Stroud went 30-of 47 passing for 337 yards in the first meeting with the Colts, who have a suspect secondary that he can take advantage of in this one.

The weakness of the Texans is their banged-up secondary as well, and you can't run on them and the Colts know it.  They will come up with a pass-happy game plan for this one which will lead to more scoring and keep the clock stopped more often.  Gardner Minshew replaced an injury Anthony Richardson in their 31-20 win at Houston earlier this season.  He went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief and has held onto the job ever since.

Which ever team is trailing is fully capable of coming back due to their passing attacks.  And the Colts run one of the fastest tempos in the NFL.  The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis home games this season as they are scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 372.5 yards per game at home, while allowing 25.8 points per game and 358.5 yards per game at home.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 52.3 points per game at home this season.

Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  It will be perfect conditions inside the dome for a shootout Saturday night, and neither team is going to give up if they are trailing with everything at stake here.  I think we see a shootout between two of the most underrated offenses in the NFL in a back and forth affair.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday night.

15* Colorado/Arizona State Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona State +3.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are grossly undervalued right now.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets as underdogs beating Stanford and California on the road as well as dismantling Utah 82-70 at home as 6-point dogs last time out.

The Colorado Buffaloes have been grossly overvlaued of later.  They are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat Washington by 4 as 8.5-point home favorites and Washington State by 7 as 7.5-point home favorites.  They were crushed 97-50 at Arizona as 13-point dogs last time out.

The biggest reason for Colorado's recent struggles is the fact that they are without two of their three best players in Tristan De Silva (15.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Cody Williams (14.0 PPG).  It's very difficult for them to even be competitive without these two, and they certainly should not be favored on the road over Arizona State without them.

Arizona State is 6-0 SU at home this season.  Colorado is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in neutral/true road games and have been terrible on the road for years.  Colorado is 127-167 ATS in its last 294 road games.  Arizona State is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win.  The Sun Devils are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  They are a streaky team, and they stay hot with their 4th consecutive upset victory tonight.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Pacers OVER 245.5

Both the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers won in blowouts last night that allowed them to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Both teams should be fresh for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back as a result, and I expect this to be a fast-paced game with plenty of points.  No starter played more than 26 minutes for the Celtics and no starter played more than 25 minutes for the Pacers last night.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 25-10 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  They host the team right behind them in the Celtics, who rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.  The Pacers will control the tempo playing at home.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pacers 18 home games this season.  Their last three home games have been ridiculously high scoring as they combined for 266 points with the Hawks, 272 points with the Bucks and 266 points with the Knicks.  It should be more of the same here against the Celtics.

The Celtics won 155-103 in their first meeting with the Pacers this season for 258 combined points.  They only combined for 234 in the 2nd meeting with the Pacers pulling off the 122-112 upset, but the Celtics didn't have Porzingis for that game.  He is is the key to them being so efficient on offense.  

The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in nine consecutive games.  The Pacers have scored at least 120 points in six consecutive games.  Both teams will easily surpass 120 points apiece in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overrated due to their 11-2 start against the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their schedule really couldn't have been much easier to this point.  They have only played on true road game and that came against DePaul, one of the worst teams in the country.

This will be Iowa State's toughest test of the season to date, and I expect them to fail.  They take on an Oklahoma Sooners team that looks to be among the contenders to win the Big 12.  The Sooners are 12-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina.

The Sooners are 9-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 26.7 points per game.  Iowa State is 20-40 ATS in its last 60 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Oklahoma is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -4

Bradley is 9-5 against the 82nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Missouri State is 9-5 against the 274th-ranked schedule in the country.  That nearly 200-spot difference in strength of schedule is a big reason I'm laying the points with Bradley at home today.

Missouri State has not looked good on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games losing by 17 at Drake, by 4 at Middle Tennessee and by 1 at Tulsa.  Bradley is on Drake's level and a contender to win the MVC.  They will prove it today.

Bradley won both meetings with Missouri State last season.  They won 58-40 as 2.5-point road dogs and 64-54 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Bradley has one of the best home-court advantages in the country going 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

The Braves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Missouri State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Stanford/USC OVER 150.5

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-3 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER at home where they are scoring 82.2 points per game.  The Trojans rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  They have allowed at least 78 points in six of their last eight games overall, including 86 to a bad Oregon State offense.

Stanford ranks 122nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in effective field goal percentage.  The Cardinal are 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They just hung 100 points in an upset win over Arizona two games back.  They went for 160 combined points with USC in their last trip to face the Trojans.

USC is 7-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Stanford is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  USC and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Auburn/Arkansas OVER 157

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Razorbacks are 11-2 OVER in all games this season, including 8-0 OVER in home games where they are scoring 87.9 points per game.  They rank 80th in adjusted tempo this season.

The Auburn Tigers also like to get up and down ranking 70th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game on the season and 82.8 points per game on the road.

Auburn has scored at least 82 points in six consecutive games.  Arkansas has scored at least 77 points in six of its last nine games overall.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +2.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a young team that is improving with each passing week under one of the best head coaches in the country in Eric Musselman.  They are 7-1 at home this season which includes an upset win over Duke.

The Razorbacks should not be home underdogs to the Auburn Tigers today.  Auburn has only played one true road game all season.  They lost that game 69-64 at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.  They have had big home/road splits under current head coach Bruce Pearl.

Arkansas is 18-4 SU in its last 22 home meetings with Auburn.  The Tigers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as road favorites of 3 points or less or PK.  The Razorbacks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Evansville -1.5

Evansville is 10-4 SU & 10-3 ATS and one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Murray State is 5-9 SU & 5-8 ATS and one of the most overrated.  I'll gladly lay the short number on the Purple Aces at home today.

Murray State is 0-6 SU in neutral/true road games this season.  The Racers were also upset at home as double-digit favorites by SE Louisiana.  Evansville is 6-0 SU at home where they are outscoring opponents by 23.6 points per game.

Murray State is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.  The Racers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Evansville Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Creighton -10

The Creighton Bluejays have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Look for them to beat Providence by double-digits to cover this number at home Saturday.

Creighton has played the 29th-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested.  Providence has faced the 171st-ranked schedule.  The Friars have only played one true road game, and they lost that game badly 72-51 as 5-point dogs at Oklahoma.  This will now be their toughest test of the season.

Making it even tougher is that they lost their best player in BJ Hopkins (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) to a season-ending injury in their 61-57 upset home loss to Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in their last game.  They stand very little chance of keeping this game competitive on the road in their first game without Hopkins.

Creighton is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games.  Providence is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (19.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State on December 31st and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He had 15 points and 5 boards in a 100-95 loss at Oakland as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  He means everything to this team, and they are an undervalued commodity moving forward with a healthy Freeman.

Now the Panthers will blow out the worst team in all of college basketball in Detroit.  The Titans are 0-16 this season and just lost their best player in Jayden Stone (18.9 PPG) to injury.  They are 3-13 ATS this season and consistently getting too much respect from the books as people keep betting them hoping to catch a falling knife.

The losses have been real ugly of late for Detroit.  They lost by 18 at home to Wisconsin-Green Bay as 2.5-point dogs, by 35 at IUPFW as 13-point dogs and by 12 at IUPUI as 2.5-point favorites.  They haven't even come close to covering in their last three games, and they won't come close Saturday, either.

Detroit is 0-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games this season.  The Titans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Marquette/Seton Hall Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall +5

Seton Hall is starting to make some headway under second-year head coach Shaheen Holloway.  The Pirates are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Missouri on a neutral, upset UConn by 15 as 7.5-point home dogs and upset Providence by 4 as 6-point road dogs during this stretch.

If they can upset UConn at home, they certainly have a great shot to upset Marquette as well.  We just saw Marquette get upset in their Big East road opener, losing 72-57 as 4-point favorites at Providence.  They are coming off a big home win over Creighton by 5, which sets them up for a letdown spot here as well.

Holloway is 46-28 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with both of their losses coming on the road to Memphis and Miami.  The Tigers are back home now coming off that loss to Miami, and they are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season.  This is a legit NCAA Tournament and ACC title contender, and they will prove it with a win and cover at home against UNC today.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  We saw them lose to Kentucky and UConn on a neutral prior to that.  UNC has somehow only played one true road game all season to this point, so they won't be prepared for the kind of atmosphere they are going to face at Clemson Saturday.

UNC Is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game with a combined scored of 155 or more points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Tigers today.  Also, Clemson is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Kings OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are definitely an OVER team especially playing at home where they can control the tempo.  The OVER is 12-6 in Sacramento's 18 home games this season where they are scoring 121.7 points per game and allowing 120.2 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors just made a trade to bring in RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley from the Knicks.  Those moves make the Raptors more of an OVER team moving forward as both Barrett and Quickley are scorers but poor defenders.  We've seen that play out here of late for the Raptors.

The Raptors have now scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games with the OVER going 4-2 in those six games.  They combined for 245 points with Utah, 238 with Boston, 256 with Detroit and 245 with Cleveland.  This total of 238 is too low for this game tonight considering infusion of offense for the Raptors that Barrett and Quickley provide.

Sacramento is 22-7 OVER in its last 29 home games following an ATS loss.  Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Sacramento) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game in January games are 37-10 (78.7%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Warriors OVER 240.5

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy here recently which is why they are playing a lot more competitive basketball of late.  But they are only competitive because they have improved greatly offensively, but they are still a terrible defensive team ranking 27th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 240 points in nine of their last 12 games overall.  That includes 302 with Utah last game, 249 with Houston the game prior, 256 with Toronto the game prior and 250 with the Celtics the game prior.

The Warriors are without their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II right now, which makes them more of an OVER team.  The Warriors rank 20th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 3-0 in Warriors last three games overall as they combined for 257 points with the Nuggets, 236 with the Magic and 254 with the Mavericks.  These two teams should have no problem combining to top the 240.5-point total tonight.

Detroit is 22-12 OVER in all games this season, including 13-5 OVER in road games.  The Pistons are 9-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team even with JA Morant.  They start three elite defenders in Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman who also don't provide a ton offensively at the same time.

The UNDER is 21-13 in all Memphis games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games overall with 227, 204, 215 and 223 combined points, which all would have stayed UNDER this 228.5-point total.

The Lakers are 10-5 UNDER in all home games this season.  They are averaging just over 222 combined points per game at home with their opponents.  Making the Lakers an even stronger UNDER team right now is the fact that they are without PG D'Angelo Russell.  Their offense really bogs down and slows down without him.  They have been held to 96, 109 and 106 points in their last three games overall.

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER after losing four of its last five games this season.  The Lakers and Grizzlies have combined for 228 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, which makes for a 5-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Nets OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in offensive rating and 6th in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Thunder last six games overall with 249 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  They just combined for 279 with the Hawks and 250 with the Celtics in their last two games.

Now they get another Eastern Conference foe here in the Nets.  The Nets have gone under the total in four consecutive games, which has suppressed this total as a result.  But the Nets shot 42.9%, 38%, 35.7% and 38.7% from the floor in those four games, which were all on the road.  Now they are back home and primed to shoot it much better.

The Nets are scoring 115.9 points per game at home this season.  If they just get to their season average, which I think they will, we will cash this OVER ticket.  The Nets have allowed at least 110 points in 14 consecutive games.  Brooklyn is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Celtics OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The improvements have come on offense, where the Jazz have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  But the Jazz rank 24th in defensive rating this season.  If they get to 116 points in this one, which they should, we are going to cash this OVER ticket.

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating right behind the Pacers this season.  They are loaded on that end with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday and White being pretty much unstoppable.  The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in eight consecutive games and will easily get 120-plus in this one.

The Celtics are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 235 or more combined points in all eight games, and 241 or more in six of those.  Utah is 26-13 OVER in its last 39 non-conference games.  Boston is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (20.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State last time out and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He means everything to this team, and the Panthers should not be 7.5-point road underdogs to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies tonight with him in the lineup.

Oakland is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Eastern Michigan and Younstown State.  They were upset by 21 at home by IUP-FW, they were upset at home by Toledo, they lost by 17 at Michigan State, lost by 24 at Dayton and lost by 8 at Cleveland State.  The Golden Grizzlies aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being 7.5-point favorites here.

Oakland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Milwaukee is 149-113 ATS in its last 262 games as road underdogs.  The Golden Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Monmouth +3.5

Monmouth has been grossly undervalued all season going 7-6 SU & 9-3 ATS.  The highlights include an upset road win at West Virginia 73-65 as 14.5-point dogs, an upset win on a neutral over Belmont 93-84 as 6.5-point dogs, a narrow 4-point loss at Cornell as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 14-point dogs, and an easy cover in a 16-point loss at Oklahoma as 22.5-point dogs.

Now Monmouth is back home where they are 4-1 SU this season with their lone loss to Princeton, which is 12-1 this season and one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  Towson State is not that.  The Tigers are also 7-6 this season while playing a much softer schedule than Monmouth.

The Tigers have played the 241st-ranked schedule in the country.  All six of their losses have come by 8 points or more.  The seven wins have come against Coppin State, Robert Morris, Morgan State, UMass, UMBC, Nicholls State and Arcadia.  They haven't beat a decent opponent yet with the exception of UMass.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS after covering two of their last three games this season.  Bet Monmouth Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Hofstra -1

Hofstra is 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with all four losses coming on the road to Saint Louis, Duke, UNLV and St. John's.  They only lost by 5 to a very good St. John's team last time out.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pride after losing four of their last five.  They have played a brutal schedule this season, a schedule that ranks 22nd-toughest in the entire country.  They have only played four home games all season and have shown well, beating South Florida 82-63 as 5.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State 74-58 as 9-point favorites in their last two home games.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on College of Charleston coming off five consecutive victories.  All five wins came at home against a very soft schedule.  They were last seen on the road losing 90-74 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs on December 10th.  They also lost by 18 to Duquesne, by 9 to Vermont and by 7 to Wyoming on a neutral earlier this season.

Hofstra is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Price are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Hofstra Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on California/USC OVER 151.5

USC is really a dead nuts OVER team with loads of offensive talent but poor defensive chemistry.  That's why the Trojans are just 6-7 this season despite having so much talent.  They rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans just allowed 86 points to Oregon State, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  They also allowed 82 points to Oregon the game before, plus 91 to Auburn, 84 to Long Beach State and 89 to Gonzaga recently.

California just allowed 100 points to Arizona, 88 to Ole Miss and 97 to Butler in some recent games.  The Golden Bears rank 120th in adjusted offense but just 237th in adjusted defense.  They also play faster than most teams ranking 169th in adjusted tempo.

California is 7-0 OVER as an underdog this season.  USC is 10-3 OVER in all games this season.  USC is 8-1 OVER in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 237.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy right now and lighting it up offensively.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last eight games overall and 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Pistons, who rank 26th in defensive rating this season.

The Pistons have also gotten healthy in recent weeks which is why they have been more competitive and were able to snap their losing streak.  The Pistons have scored at least 111 points in eight consecutive games.  But they are so bad defensively, allowing at least 118 points in 12 consecutive games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Pistons last 11 games overall with 240 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games overall.

Detroit is 21-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  Utah is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Jazz are 25-13 OVER in their last 38 non-conference games.  The Pistons rank 6th in pace while the Jazz rank 11th, so we'll get the pace we need to cash this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Stanford/UCLA ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UCLA and 'sell high' on Stanford tonight with the perfect storm here.  UCLA is 1-5 SU in its last six games overall as the Bruins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the country up to this point.

But I expect the Bruins to fire back here at home tonight against a Stanford team coming off one of the biggest wins of the entire season.  They throttled Arizona 100-82 at home on December 31st to pull off the upset as 12-point underdogs.  They shot a ridiculous 58.1% from the floor as everything they looked at went in.

Things won't come nearly as easily against UCLA, which ranks 39th in adjusted defense.  Remember, this is a Stanford team that lost by 22 to Northern Iowa, by 14 to San Diego State and by 12 to Santa Clara earlier this season.  That win over Arizona was the aberration, not the norm for this Cardinal team.

UCLA owns Stanford, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.  Jarod Haase is 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Stanford.  Mick Cronin is 10-2 ATS in home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game as the coach of UCLA.  Bet UCLA Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavs OVER 236.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 10th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.  Kyrie Irving just returned from injury against the Jazz last time out and was rusty.  The Mavericks scored 90 points and shot 39.8% from the floor as a team.  This total has been suppressed due to that result, and now it's a good time to 'buy low' on a Mavericks OVER.  Irving will be much sharper in his 2nd game back tonight.

It's also a good time to 'buy low' on a Blazers OVER after they scored 88 points on 41.2% shooting against the Suns last time out.  Anfernee Simons (27.1 PPG) has sat out the last three games with an illness.  I have to think he returns for the Blazers tonight.  Simons scored at least 23 points in six consecutive games prior to going down with Illness.  His presence on the court makes the Blazers an OVER team.  Shaeden Sharpe (16.4 PPG) also just returned from injury, while center DeAandre Ayton is out right now.  Ayton is their most important defender so it's good for us that he is out.

Dallas is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Mavericks are 14-3 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The Blazers and Mavericks have combined for at least 237 points in five consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 247

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Atlanta's 13 home games this season where they are scoring 123.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating this season and are filling it up right now.  The Thunder have scored at least 116 points in 12 consecutive games and are averaging 121.5 points per game on 49.9% shooting this season.  They will get what they want on offense tonight, but they may have a letdown defensively after upsetting the Celtics last night.

The OVER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the Thunder and Hawks including 269 and 254 combined points in a couple recent meetings.  Atlanta is 7-0 OVER  after losing four of its last five games this season.  Oklahoma City is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavs OVER 239

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they do fill it up on offense with plenty of talent to get their points on a nightly basis.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team this season than in year's past because they are shooting a lot more 3-pointers and playing faster.  They just went for 245 combined points with the Raptors in their last game, and I think we get 240-plus here with ease.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in 17 of their last 27 games overall.  Washington is 33-21 OVER in its last 54 games when the total is 230 or higher.  The Wizards are 13-3 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Cleveland) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Pacers Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 258.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Well, this will already be the 5th meeting between the Pacers and Bucks this season.  They have combined for 250, 247, 266 and 235 points in those four meetings.  The Books have set the bar too high tonight.

The Pacers and Bucks just combined for 235 points in their 4th meeting just two days ago on January 1st.  It will be more of the same here as these teams know each other inside and out at this point and will be able to defend one another.  Injuries will also help us cash this UNDER with Middleton questionable for the Bucks and Brown and Nembhard questionable for the Pacers.

Milwaukee is 32-17 UNDER in its last 49 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Indiana) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* New Mexico/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State -3.5

Colorado State is not only one of the best mid-major teams in the country but one of the very best college basketball teams in the country, period.  The Rams are 12-1 this season with their lone loss coming to St. Mary's when they were short-handed.  They have wins over two of the best teams in the country in Creighton (69-48) and Colorado (88-83), and they should be more than 3.5-point home favorites over New Mexico tonight.

Colorado State lost two key players in Jalen Lake and Josiah Strong for a stretch of games recently.  But they just got Lake (8.2 PPG) back from injury and will be getting Strong (8.5 PPG) back later this month.  And they still have four players averaging 12.2 PPG or more this season.

Somehow New Mexico has only played one true road game this season.  The Lobos nearly lost outright at New Mexico State in a 73-72 win as 14.5-point favorites in that lone true road game.  We know the Lobos dominate at home with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But they struggle on the road, and I'll gladly fade them here in only their 2nd true road game this season.

Colorado State is 7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.  Colorado State is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with New Mexico with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Colorado State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +6

Illinois just lost its best player in Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.7 PPG) to a suspension due to rape charges over Christmas Break.  That's a big blow to their season and a huge distraction right now.  They should not be favored by 6 over Northwestern tonight without Shannon Jr.

Northwestern is 10-2 this season with a win over Purdue.  The Wildcats have been a thorn in Illinois' side in recent meetings as well going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings not once losing by more than 7 points despite playing three of those on the road.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after playing a game as a favorite.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games coming off an ATS loss.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 240

Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Boston Celtics visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating while the Thunder rank 6th.  Both teams are fully healthy right now as well so expect plenty of fireworks in this one.

I expect both the Thunder and Celtics to exceed 120 points in this one.  The Thunder have scoreda t least 119 points in six consecutive games and 116 or more in 11 consecutive games.  The Celtics have scored 120 or more points in seven consecutive games, and 114 or more in 12 consecutive games.

Oklahoma City is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 267, 248 and 255 combined points.  The Thunder are 14-1 OVER in their last 15 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best covering team in the NBA for three seasons running.  They just cannot seem to get the respect they deserve because they are a small market team.  They continue playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Now they will prove themselves once again against the team that everyone is picking to win the NBA title in the Boston Celtics.  The Thunder are 22-9 SU & 22-8 ATS this season, including 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  The Thunder (+8.7) rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating, only behind the Celtics (10.4) and 76ers (10.3).  This line should be much closer to PK when you look at net rating and factor in home-court advantage.

The Celtics have been vulnerable on the road where they are 10-6 SU & 6-8 ATS.  They were just taken to OT by the Pistons at home and won by 2 over the Raptors in two of their last three games.  They did blow out the Spurs on the road who were without Keldon Johnson, but everyone is beating the Spurs.

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good pressure defensive teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue/Maryland UNDER 141.5

Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Terrapins rank 270th in adjusted tempo, 25th in adjusted defense and 134th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight, and they will slow it down to a snail's pace to try and give themselves their best chance to upset Purdue.

The Boilermakers rank 9th in adjusted defense.  They always tend to play Maryland in low-scoring games home or away.  Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 122, 113, 123 and 121 combined points scored in those four.  The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings as well with 126 or fewer combined points in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Jazz OVER 245

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Mavericks got great injury news heading into this one with Doncic and Exum participating in shootaround today, plus the big one in Irving also participating and expected to make his return.  They are really an OVER team when Irving is playing.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy as well.  They rank 12th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and are a much better offensive team when Markkanen and Clarkson are playing, which is the case right now.  The Jazz have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  Utah is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  They gave up 147 points to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.  The Mavericks are 14-2 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  This month break with their last game on December 1st will do wonders for these three.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

Texas lost star RB Jonathan Brooks late in the season.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 TD while averaging 6.1 per carry.  Backups CJ Baxter (4.6/carry) isn't nearly as explosive.  Texas also lost leading WR Xavier Worthy in the Big 12 Championship Game to injury.  He was seen limping and on crutches after the game.  While he is expected to play, he has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100%.  That's a big blow considering Worthy has 73 receptions for 969 yards and 5 TD this season.

Texas isn't going to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Washington.  And I like the matchup for this Washington offense up against this Texas defense.  The strength of the Longhorns is their run D, but you can throw on them.  That fits perfectly for what head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to do, which is throw it all over the yard.  The Huskies average 344 passing yards per game and 9.2 per attempt.  Texas allowed 305 passing yards to Baylor, 378 to Houston, 327 to Kansas State, 302 to TCU and 323 to Iowa State in Big 12 play.

Texas does have the better defense overall, but Washington's defense is better than it gets credit for.  The Huskies do allow you to move the ball between the 20's, but they were one of the best red zone D's in the country, which is why they only allow 23.6 points per game.  I think they can more than handle their own defensively, and this will be a step up in class for Texas' offense after facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Big 12.

Washington beat Texas 27-20 last year in the bowl game.  There was nothing fluky about is as the Huskies racked up 445 total yards on the Longhorns.  It will be more of the same this year, except the difference is the Huskies are better than they were a year ago in their bowl game.  They will be able to play with a chip on their shoulder again listed as the underdog.  I fully expect the Huskies to win this game outright, but we will take the points for some insurance.  

Steve Sarkisian is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Texas.  Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  I'll take DeBoer over Sarkisian every time with time to prepare.  Bet Washington in the Sugar Bowl Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Rockets OVER 227.5

The Houston Rockets have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing their best defender in Dillon Brooks to injury.  He doesn't provide much offensively.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rockets last three games overall with 240, 242 and 258 combined points.  This total of 227.5 is way too short tonight.

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season which is why they are playing much better of late.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven games overall and we have seen 230 or more combined points in all seven games.  Again, this total of 227.5 is too low given those facts.

Detroit is 20-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  The Pistons are 9-1 OVER in road games vs. teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Houston is 16-6 OVER in its last 22 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Alabama/Michigan Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +2

The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl.  Alabama will be the best team that Michigan has faced all season and I don't expect it to go well for them.  It will go similarly to how it did against TCU last year.  Michigan was upset by TCU, and TCU went on to lose by 56 to Georgia.  The SEC is simply king.

We saw that play out Saturday with Ole Miss upsetting Penn State 38-25 and Georgia blasting Florida State 63-3.  Missouri also upset Ohio State 14-3 the day prior.  Alabama beat both Ole Miss and Georgia to get here.

Michigan was able to bully teams in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten was a terrible offensive league this season.  Michigan won't be able to bully Alabama at the line is scrimmage.  Plus, Michigan hasn't faced the kind of athletes on offense that they will have to deal with in this one.  

QB Jalen Milroe is a physical specimen that can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Michigan won't be prepared because they haven't seen anything like him.  He completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,718 yards with a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores on the ground.  I will take Milroe over Michigan's JJ McCarthy all day.  McCarthy hasn't been asked to do much this season because Michigan bullies everyone with their ground game, and he won't be prepared to need to do more in this one.

I like the fact that Alabama is the underdog in this one so Nick Saban can use that as a motivating tool that nobody believes in this team still, and they will be out to prove something.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play this season.  Saban is 8-1 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents as the coach of Alabama.  Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Alabama in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee Citrus Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 35

The Big Ten West was dreadful this season.  Iowa managed to win it with one of the worst offenses in college football history.  However, a lot of that had to do with them having to play some great defenses and very poor offenses.  Iowa isn't used to playing the type of team they will be up against in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee runs an up-tempo offense that is conducive to a lot of points being scored by both teams.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in seconds per play on offense.  They are going to force Iowa into more of a track meet than they're used to, especially if the Volunteers jump out ahead like they are supposed to as the favorite.

11 of Tennessee's 12 games have seen 43 or more combined points.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Starting QB Joe Milton has opted out of this bowl game, but that's the only real significant loss on offense for the Volunteers.  Many Tennessee fans wanted Nico Iamaleava to start over Milton this season anyway, and now he will get his shot in this bowl game.  Iowa won't know what to do to prepare for with him without game film on him.  Iamaleava is the top-ranked QB recruit in program history, and Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halzle cannot wait to unleash him.

The biggest losses for the Volunteers as far as opt-outs are concerned are on defense.  Starting DE Tyler Baron, starting S Wesley Walker, starting CB Doneiko Slaughter, and starting slot CB Tamarion McDonald have all hit the transfer portal.  They have six players in the secondary that have hit the portal.  They will be without at least four starters and possibly more on defense.  Iowa will be able to move the football much easier than normal against this defense, which will be a big step down in class for them compared to what they are used to facing in the Big Ten.

Iowa losing CB/PR Cooper DeJean to injury late in the season is a big blow.  He was a unanimous 1st-team All-American.  Without having his leadership out there it's going to be much tougher sledding for this Iowa defense up against arguably the most high-powered offense they have seen all season.  Iowa's schedule of opposing offenses this season is an absolute joke playing in the Big Ten West, plus facing Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State in the non-conference.

Iowa's offense tends to bust out in bowl games, too.  The Hawkeyes have scored at least 20 points in 18 consecutive bowl games.  If they get to 20 in this one, it's going OVER the total.  Iowa and their opponents have combined for at least 35 points in 17 of their last 19 bowl games.  That makes for a 17-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Bet the OVER in the Citrus Bowl Monday.

20* Packers/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 44

The Green Bay Packers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 46 or more combined points in all five games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Packers, especially matched up with another team that is playing to OVERS recently.  Plus, this game will be indoors in perfect conditions Sunday night in Minnesota.

Jordan Love has made the leap in the 2nd half of the season and is playing much better.  He has led the Packers to 19 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 27 or more three times in his last four games.  They put up 33 on a very good Carolina defense on the road last week.

But the Packers cannot stop anyone.  They have allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games.  That includes 30 to the Panthers, 34 to the Bucs and 24 to the Giants the last three weeks.  That's really poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers won't have top CB Jaire Alexander to cover Justin Jefferson as he was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team.

The Vikings will have the element of surprise this week going with rookie QB Jaren Hall.  It always seems to give the offense a spark in that first game with a new starter that nobody has film on.  While TE TJ Hockensen was lost for the season, WR Jordan Addison returned to practice this week.  Hall should have Addison to go along with one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, plus the two-headed monster of Chandler and Mattison in the backfield.

Love has torched the blitz this season and will torch Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme as well.  The Vikings have really regressed defensively in recent weeks.  They allowed 27 points and 378 total yards to the Bengals two weeks ago and 30 points and 389 total yards to the Lions last week.

Green Bay is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Packers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games following a win.  Minnesota is 6-0 OVER in its last six December home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Spurs OVER 238.5

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play the Boston Celtics, who rank 4th in offensive rating and will hang a big number on them today.  I expect the Spurs to score enough themselves to push this one OVER the total.

Both teams are very healthy coming into this game, which is good for the OVER.  The keys for the Celtics to being an OVER team is having Porzingis, Tatum, Brown and White healthy, and all four are expected to play.  Jrue Holiday is questionable, but he's an elite defender so not having him for this OVER would be just fine.

The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in six consecutive games.  They have allowed 115 or more points in five of those six.  The OVER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in Spurs last nine games overall.  They have scored 118 or more points in seven of those nine games.  They have allowed at least 114 points in eight of those nine games.

Boston is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after five straight games making 47% of their shots or better.  San Antonio is 13-2 OVER in home games this season.  The Spurs are 7-0 OVER after playing their last two games on the road this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days as well.  They want revenge on the Lakers after getting knocked out by them in the semifinals of the in-season tournament.

I like their chances of getting that revenge considering the Lakers are a tired team.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in 4 days after a 106-108 loss in Minnesota last night.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis each played 39 minutes in that game, and don't be surprised if one or both sit.  Plus, De'Angelo Russell got hurt in that game and is questionable to play tonight.

The Lakers have been pretty dreadful since winning the in-season tournament as they just lack motivation in these less important games.  They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  I don't expect a very good effort out of them tonight given the spot, and I conversely I expect a max effort from the revenge-minded Pelicans, who are fully healthy right now.

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against the spread.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Commanders OVER 48

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Washington Commanders.  The 49ers have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL but currently a leaky defense.  The Commanders have the single worst defense in the NFL currently but a capable offense.

The 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  The lone exception was the 19 against the Ravens, but they still managed 429 total yards despite scoring just 19 points due to committing five turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.  The 49ers have been sub par defensively of late, allowing 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago and 33 points and 343 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in six consecutive games now.  They just gave up 30 points to the lowly Jets lsat week.  They also allowed 31 to the Giants during this stretch, so everyone is scoring on them.  But the Commanders are going to Jacoby Brissett at QB, and he has led them on multiple TD drives in the 2H of two consecutive games replacing Sam Howell.  The Commanders keep coming with him under center and will keep coming even if they fall way behind the 49ers.

The 49ers will get 35 points in this one, so we only need 14 from the Commanders to cash this OVER ticket, and I don't see that being a problem.  The 49ers and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in three of their last four games.  The Commanders and their opponents have combined for at least 48 points in six consecutive games.  They are 5-1 OVER in those six games and if not for a missed XP on their final score against the Rams would be 6-0.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 50's, no precipitation and only 7 MPH winds in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Eagles OVER 47.5

Two leaky defenses square off against two mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with their arm and their leges.  This has shootout written all over it as the Arizona Cardinals visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles got their offense back on track last week with 33 points and 465 total yards against the Giants.  Now they face an Arizona defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 26.9 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals are severely banged up on defense to boot.

Arizona has been much better offensively with Kyler Murray at QB and a healthy James Connor at RB.  They put up 24 points and 150 rushing yards on the Steelers three games ago and 29 points and 234 rushing yards on the 49ers two weeks ago.  They will be able to run on this Philadelphia defense, which has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in six consecutive games.

This is also a very tired, banged up Philadelphia defense.  They have allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games, including 34 points and 510 yards to the Bills, 42 points and 456 yards to the 49ers, 33 points and 394 yards to the Cowboys and 25 points to the lowly Giants last week.  The Cardinals will get their points as well.  I expect Philly to get to 31 and Arizona to get to at least 20 in this one.

The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games in the 2nd half of the season.  Arizona is 14-5 OVER in its last 19 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher.  The forecast looks good with temps in the 40's and only 10 MPH winds expected in Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week.  They lost CJ Stroud three weeks ago to a concussion against the Jets.  They haven't been the same team since.  They are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Browns, and backup QB Case Keenum was terrible in that game.  He wasn't very good in their OT win over the Titans the week prior as well as he threw a Pick 6.

But now the Texans are expected to get back Stroud this week.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

Now the Titans won't have the luxury of facing the Texans without Stroud, who they still lost to two weeks ago at home.  The Texans were only 3-point road dogs in that game and now 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That adjustment isn't big enough for shifting home fields, plus replacing Keenum with Stroud.  The Texans should be much closer to a touchdown favorite in this one.

Houston has everything to play for as it is tied for 1st place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Colts.  The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Titans are also a very tired team playing five consecutive one score games, including the last four decided by 3 points or fewer.  But that won't be the case in this one.  I think the Titans are out of gas here, and they have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL, especially defensively.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Their offense has also been suspect on the road with 14.3 points per game, 268.4 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

The Texans outgained the Titans 340 to 204 in that first meeting with Keenum.  They held the Titans to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts.  The key to stopping the Titans is stopping their running game, and few teams are better equipped at stopping the run than the Texans.  They allow just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.  They have held six of their last eight opponents to 81 rushing yards or fewer.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Titans/Texans OVER 42.5

The Houston Texans get CJ Stroud back from a concussion after missing the last two games.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Titans are expected to get Will Levis back at QB this week.  He is more of an 'OVER' QB than Ryan Tannehill, who prefers to dink and dunk.  Levis is not afraid to take deep shots, and he will make more mistakes than Tannehill will, which is good for OVERS.  You cannot run on this Houston defense, so the Titans are going to have to go with a pass-happy approach.  I also expect them to be trailing in this one like they were against Miami a few weeks ago and had to throw it a ton in a game that saw 55 combined points.

The Texans also have their fair share of injuries on defense including Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who all missed practice on Thursday.  They have seven starters questionable for this one.  The Texans were lit up for 36 points and 418 total yards by the Browns last week.  The Titans will have their opportunities to score on this defense as well, especially through the air.

This total is too low due to these teams combining for just 35 points in their first meeting in Tennessee a few weeks ago.  But now Stroud replaces Keenum and there's value in the OVER 42.5 here.  They also go from playing an outdoor game on grass in the elements in Tennessee to perfect conditions inside the dome here in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Rams/Giants NFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 42

The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 48 or more combined points in all five games.  It would be 5-0 if not for a missed extra point by the Commanders.  They combined for 52 points with the Saints, 48 with the Commanders, 66 with the Ravens, 55 with the Browns and 51 with the Cardinals.  This total of 42 is very low for a game involving the Rams right now.

The Rams have been dynamic on offense with Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy at the same time.  That has been the case for them during this offensive resurgence.  They are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall as the most dynamic offense in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.

I like the fact that the Giants are going with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week.  He is probably their best option.  Taylor led the Giants to 22 second-half points against the Eagles last week after they were held to just 3 points in the first half with Tommy DeVito.  Taylor went 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 21 yards on his two attempts.  The Giants have all of their top playmakers healthy right now including RB Barkley and TE Waller.

The OVER is 4-2 in Giants last six games overall with 46 or more combined points in four of those six games.  The only two exceptions were against the Patriots in bad weather and up against a bad New England offense.  They also went under the total against the Saints, who also have one of the league's least-explosive offenses.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 40's, sunny skies and single-digit winds at MetLife Stadium in New York.  The Rams allow 24.1 points per game on the road this season.  I'm expecting the Rams to get 27-plus in this one and the Giants to get to at least 20.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now since getting Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence.  And now they get extra time to rest and prepare for this game against the Giants after beating the Saints last Thursday.

The Rams are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Ravens in overtime.  The Rams are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall and have been one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.  The Giants could be without two starting defensive linemen in A'Shawn Robinson and Dexter Lawrence this week to make matters worse for them.  Their injury list is as long as any in the NFL right now.

Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito for the Giants at quarterback.  However, it's not a big enough upgrade to warrant this line getting bet down from 6.5 to 4.5 when it was announced Taylor would start.  The Rams have extra time to prepare for Taylor's skill set, so he won't be catching anyone off guard like he did against the Eagles in the 2H last week.  I just don't think the Giants have the firepower to keep up with the Rams in this one, and I have the Rams winning by a TD or more as a result.  The Giants average 14.3 points per game and 263.7 yards per game on the season, including 10.2 points per game and 259.3 yards per game at home.

The Rams know that if they win this game they likely lock up a playoff spot and then can rest their starters next week against the 49ers.  That's why they won't be looking ahead to that game against San Francisco, especially since they have extra time to prepare after having last Thursday off.  Sean McVay's teams get better as the season progresses, which is evident in the fact that the Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys OVER 52

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions are both dead nuts OVER teams, especially when the games are played indoors.  The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season while the Lions are averaging 31.8 points per game in dome games, which includes their seven home games and road games at the Chargers, Saints and Vikings.  That's an average of over 70 combined points per game in indoor games for their offenses.  This total of 52 is too low.

Dallas will get its offense back on track this week after having to go outdoors and play two very good defenses in the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks.  Both of those outdoor games went under the total, which has provided us some line value to back the OVER in this one.  Now they face a bad Lions defense that allows 25.3 points per game, 351.1 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games overall.  Detroit and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in six of those seven games, including 54 or more five times.  That includes games against poor offensive teams in the Bears, Saints, Broncos and Vikings.  Now they get to face another great offense that can match them, and what is an overrated Dallas defense that has been exposed in recent weeks.

Detroit is 8-2 OVER in turf games this season.  Dallas is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 home games after the first month of the season.  The Lions are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games following a win.  Both offenses have all of their top playmakers on offense healthy, while both defenses are missing key players to injury.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +5

The Detroit Pistons have tied the NBA record for longest losing streak in history at 28 games.  They don't want to be the sole owners of this streak, and I expect them to win outright tonight.  We will take the points for some insurance.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and are trending in the right direction.  They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games and played well in both.  They only lost by 6 to the Nets as 6.5-point underdogs, and then took the Celtics to OT as 17-point underdogs.  They even led the Celtics by 20-plus points early in that game.

Now the Pistons are in a favorable spot here playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Raptors are in a terrible spot, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They are coming off a deflating 118-120 loss at Boston last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons.  

Keep in mind Boston was missing Tatum and Porzingis last night and was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so the fact that they hung with the Celtics isn't very impressive as they closed as 4.5-point dogs.  Siakam played 40 minutes, Barnes 38, Anunoby 37 and Schroder 34 for the Raptors last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons, and they could choose to rest a starter or two.

The Raptors are 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so it's not like they are playing well enough to warrant being 5-point road favorites here.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Raptors.  That includes 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UNC-Wilmington/Arkansas OVER 146.5

The books have missed their mark setting this total below 150 between UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas, two great offensive teams that can fill it up.  Arkansas ranks 99th in adjusted tempo and 66th in adjusted offense and is scoring 80.3 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the season.

Wilmington ranks 98th in adjusted offense this season and is putting up 85.4 points per game on 48% shooting, including 38.7% shooting from 3-point range.  They won't be intimidated by the Razorbacks as they already beat Kentucky 80-73 as 18-point road dogs.

Each of Wilmington's last four games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They have gone for 147 or more combined points in eight of their 11 games this season.  Better yet, Arkansas has gone for 149 or more combined points in 11 of its 12 games this season.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 146.5-point total.  

Arkansas is 10-2 OVER in all games this season, including 7-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Razorbacks are 17-4 OVER in their last 21 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming ML -165

Legendary head coach Craig Bohl has announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.  These players desperately want to get him a win in his final game, and no team will be more motivated than the Cowboys this bowl season.  I like putting my money on teams that I know will be motivated.

The Cowboys only had one player hit the transfer portal in CB Kolbey Taylor.  RT Caden Barnett won't play in the bowl due to injury, but backup Jack Walsh started for him in the final two games this season.  Bohl has said that everyone else appears to be healthy and playing in this bowl game.

Toledo will be without starting QB Dequan Finn and starting LG Vinny Scuiry.  CB Quinyon Mitchell may decide to opt out as well.  The loss of Finn is massive.  He completes 63.4% of his passes for 2,657 yards with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 563 yards and seven TD, and backup QB Tucker Gleason just doesn't threat opponents with his legs like Finn does.

Just this week, Toledo star RB Penny Boone announced he would be hitting the transfer portal, which means he's likely opting out of this bowl game.  Boone has rushed for 1,400 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.2 per carry.  He and Finn account for basically all of their production on the ground, combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 TD.

Toledo lost as a 6.5-point favorite in the MAC Championship Game to Miami Ohio by a final of 23-14.  The Rockets do not want to be here.  Wyoming plays a very similar style to Miami Ohio.  They don't wow you offensively, but they are elite defensively and make everything difficult for their opponents.  Now they get to go up against a Toledo offense without their starting QB & RB.

Wyoming ended the season by blasting Hawaii 42-9 at home as 13-point favorites and crushing Nevada 42-6 on the road as 10.5-point favorites.  They do want to be here and have earned their way.  They also beat Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State earlier this season while giving Texas all they wanted for three quarters on the road.  They are battle-tested to say the least.  Wyoming played the 73rd-toughest schedule this season while Toledo played the 130th in the weak MAC.

Jason Candle is 0-7 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Toledo.  Bohl is 17-6 ATS following two or more consecutive wins as the coach of Wyoming.  I'm confident the Cowboys are going to get the win for Bohl, but I don't want to lay -3.5 in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.  So I'll lay the extra juice on the Money Line instead.  Bet Wyoming on the Money Line in the Arizona Bowl Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +9

Indiana State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Sycamores are 11-1 this season with their lone loss coming on the road to Alabama.  They rank 34th in adjusted offense and can fill it up, and they are improved defensively ranking 101st in adjusted defense.  I think they can give Michigan State a run for its money today.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Spartans.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But we saw the Spartans get upset earlier this season at home by another great mid-major in James Madison as 16.5-point favorites.  This could be a flat spot for the Spartans coming off Christmas Break and with a Big Ten game against Penn State on deck.

Indiana State is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games overall.  The Sycamores are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now with the exception of Aaron Gordon, who is their best defender.  They just hung 142 points on the Grizzlies last night, who are a very good defensive team.  They have scored at least 113 points in nine of their last 10 games overall, including 120 or more six times.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have scored at least 116 points in nine consecutive games, including 120 or more seven times.  I think both teams can get to 120 tonight, which is more than enough to cash this OVER 235.5 ticket.

The Thunder are 25-10 OVER in their last 35 games following a home win.  The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall with 235 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on 76ers/Rockets OVER 224

The Houston Rockets are without two key defenders right now in Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith that will really take away from them defensively.  They have had a great defensive season, but we saw how it went without Brooks against the Suns last time out.  They lost a 129-113 shootout to the Suns and 242 combined points.

The 76ers go more small ball without Embiid and play faster.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in three of their last four games overall.  They also take a hit defensively without Embiid.

The OVER is 20-10 in all 76ers games this season largely due to them ranking 3rd in offensive rating.  The 76ers and Rockets have combined for at least 226 points in seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Iowa State OVER 57

The Memphis Tigers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-2 OVER in all games this season.  We have seen 61 or more combined points in eight of Memphis' last nine games overall.  This total of 57 is too low for a game involving the Tigers.

Memphis is putting up 39.7 points per game, 453.2 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  QB Seth Hanigan is expected to play and have all of his top playmakers for this contest.  Hanigan is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 TD on 5.9 per carry.  Roc Taylor (61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD) and Dameer Blankumsee (51, 825, 6 TD) are his top two target.  They will only be without RT Makylan Pounders and RG Davion Carter, but backups Mitchell Gildehaus and Terrance McClain have experience taking their place.

Memphis allows 29.0 points per game, 424.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Tigers will be without starting CB Julian Barnett, starting S Cameron Smith and backup BUCK Andres Fox.  Smith is the fourth-leading tackler and a big blow in the secondary for an already suspect Memphis defense.

Iowa State scored 42 points on Kansas State and 45 points on BYU in two of its final three games.  They are going to score at will on this Memphis defense.  The Cyclones will have all of their starters available offensively.  On defense, they will be without CB TJ Tampa, who is an NFL corner.  They could also be without starting S Malik Verdon, leaving their secondary short-handed against Memphis' pass-happy attack.  The Cyclones allowed 281-plus passing yards in three of their final four games this season.

I expect Iowa State to score 35-plus in this one and Memphis to get to at least 28.  Memphis is 7-0 OVER following a conference game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Blazers OVER 233.5

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in six of those seven.  This total of 233.5 is too low for a game involving the Spurs right now.

The Blazers are more of an OVER team in their current state because they have all of their key guards healthy, plus they are without center DeAndre Ayton, who is their eraser inside.  They have gone more small ball lately.  The OVER is 6-3 in Blazers last nine games overall with 232 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Spurs and Blazers with 256, 264 and 240 combined points in those three.  San Antonio is 20-9 OVER in all games this season.  Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Portland) - after a win by 10 points or more against an opponent that is off four consecutive losses by 10 points or more are 22-3 (88%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5

The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco.  Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started.  The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall.  As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.

The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall.  It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER.

The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games.  Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points.  Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER.

Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are back to being a dead nuts OVER team now that they are fully healthy getting both Markkanen and Clarkson back.  The OVER is 3-1 in Jazz last four games overall with 240, 230, 245 and 248 combined points.

The New Orleans Pelicans have faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses here of late with games against the Grizzlies (twice), Rockets and Cavaliers.  The scoring in those four games was suppressed, but now the Pelicans get a reprieve here against the Jazz, who rank 24th in defensive rating.

This game will play out similarly to recent games against the Wizards and Spurs.  The Pelicans beat the Spurs 146-110 for 256 combined points and the Wizards 142-122 for 264 combined points.  Both the Spurs and Wizards have similar profiles to the Jazz as dead nuts OVER teams who play poor defense.

Utah is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games when paying just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NC State/K-State Pop-Tarts Bowl ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2.5

The NC State Wolfpack are highly motivated to get their 10th win of the season.  They quietly played some of the best football int he country down the stretch, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games with upset wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC and Virginia Tech.  They also smoked Wake Forest by 20 in what looked to be a clear letdown spot.  Now they are once again underdogs to Kansas State when they should be favored in this game when you factor in all that the Wildcats will be missing.

Kansas State won the Big 12 last year and got a big bowl game as a result against Alabama.  This is actually a letdown for them to be playing n the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  The Wildcats have nine players in the transfer portal including QB Will Howard, so that leaves Avery Johnson as the expected starter at QB.  They also had starting S Kobe Savage and starting CB Will Lee hit the transfer portal, plus starting WR Phillip Brooks and starting TE Ben Sinnott transfer out, which are their two biggest weapons on offense.  DT Uso Deumalo was on crutches in the finale, and LB Jake Clifton was lost for the season after Week 11 after the Wildcats were already without starting MLB Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom.  Offensive coordinator Collin Klein accepted the same job at Texas A&M as well.

NC State should have all hands on deck for this game in terms of starters outside of NT CJ Clark.  That just goes to show you how 'all in' the Wolfpack are to get their 10th win of the season.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team with a all of their best players available against the team that lacks motivation with a ton of key opt-outs and transfers down to a backup QB.  Bet NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Miami Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers ML +100

Rutgers actually qualified for a bowl not due to academics with 6 wins for the first time since 2014.  It's safe to say the Scarlet Knights want to be here, and head coach Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his head coaching career.

Rutgers will have a huge home-field advantage in this one with the short trip to The Bronx for fans to come watch this team play.  It's only an hour drive from campus.  They are a cold weather team used to the elements going up against a warm weather team in Miami that wants nothing to do with having to play in the cold weather and this bowl game up in the Northeast.

While Rutgers only had one key player opt out of this game in CB Max Melton, the losses are large for Miami with transfers and opt-outs.  They will be down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown with starting QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin and backup QB Emory Williams injured.  The Hurricanes will also be without fellow starters in WR Colbie Young, LB Corey Flagg, EDGE Jahfari Harvey, CB Daryl Porter Jr., S Kamren Kinches, S Jamal Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, C Matt Lee and LG Javion Cohen.  The Hurricanes are likely to be without four starters on offense and five or six on defense.

Schiano is 38-20 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Mario Cristobal is 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Miami.  We are getting the better head coach and the team that wants to be here more at a PK, which is an absolute steal.  Bet Rutgers on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl BAILOUT on Oklahoma State ML -130

The Texas A&M Aggies have been absolutely gutted in the transfer portal and in the coaching staff.  Jimbo Fisher was fired and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino left for the same job at Arkansas.  Elijah Robinson will serve as the interim for the bowl game, but he has his forced on Syracuse where he will be their defensive coordinator.  The rest of the staff is in flux as well.

Third-string QB Jaylen Henderson will get the start with QB Max Johnson off to North Carolina.  Other starters missing are WR Evan Steward, RT Chase Bisontis, EDGE Fadil Diggs, S Bryce Anderson, DL Walter Nolen, CB Tyreek Chappell, CB Deuce Harmon, WR Ainias Smith, LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT McKinnley Jackson and RG Layden Robinson.  That's 12 starters they are expected to be without, plus several other backups in the transfer portal and possibly starting C Bryce Foster and WR Moose Muhammad.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is one of the best bowl head coaches in the country.  His 11 bowl wins rank him among the Top 10 all-time in college football.  Oklahoma State clearly wants to be here as the only potential starter missing would be LB Collin Oliver, but I'm guessing he plays.  Star RB Ollie Gordon I (1,614 yards, 20 TD, 6.3/carry) is going to play, which is all you need to know about how much the Cowboys want to be here.

I'll gladly side with the more motivated team in the Cowboys up against the team that wants nothing to do with this bowl game in the Aggies.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Magic OVER 224.5

The Orlando Magic have gone for at least 227 combined points in three consecutive games.  The Philadelphia 76ers have gone for at least 232 combined points in three consecutive games while going OVER in all three.  The OVER is now 11-3 in 76ers last 14 games overall.

The 76ers are playing faster without Joel Embiid right now, and they are going with more small ball, which is beneficial to OVERS.  The 76ers rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, largely due to the fact that they have a lot more talent on this roster outside Embiid than most realize, especially at the guard positions.  They rank 12th in pace and like I said play faster without having to run the offense through Embiid.  But they are much worse off defensively without him.

Philadelphia is 20-9 OVER in all games this season.  The 76ers are 10-2 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* UNC/West Virginia Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on West Virginia -6.5

The UNC Tar Heels are going to be without a ton of starters for this game, so this is more of a fade of them than anything.  They will be without five players who will be entering the NFL Draft in QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, WR Tez Walker and DL Myles Murphy.  They are missing five other starters due to injury in TE John Copenhaver, WR Byson Nesbit, WR Kobe Paysour, CB Alijah Huzzie and S Will Hardy.  Seven other backups hit the transfer portal.

West Virginia will have its full compliment of starters for this one with the exception of C Zach Frazier, who is one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft.  He is only missing this game due to surgery.  Head coach Neal Brown and his players will be 'all in' to try and get a win here when you look at all the players expected to play.

West Virginia is a run-heavy team that averages 236 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  They will be up against a UNC defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  And now this defense won't have several key players at LB, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  But the losses are bigger for UNC's offense, which will be without its QB and all of its top weapons.

The bottom line is WVU cares about this bowl game while UNC does not, and the matchup favors them as well as they will be winning that battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Getting the Mountaineers at anything less than a TD favorite here is a discount.  Bet West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last year in the play-in round with a 120-95 victory at home.  They also beat the Thunder 106-103 at home in their first meeting this season.

But now the Thunder finally get the Timberwolves at home in Oklahoma City, and they will get their revenge tonight.  The Thunder are 18-9 SU & 18-8-1 ATS this season, including 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS at home.  The Timberwolves have just one loss at home all season, but five losses on the road.  Minnesota could be without Karl-Anthony Towns, who is questionable.

Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing three consecutive home games.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets are 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game at home this year, where they have been grossly undervalued.  That is the case again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the struggling Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have struggled since the in-season tournament.  They are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming at home against the lowly Hornets.  They lost by 14 in Milwaukee, by 14 in Washington, by 18 in Minnesota and by 13 in Memphis in their four road games during this stretch.

While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Pacers will be without Bruce Brown (11.6 PPG), who was their biggest offseason acquisition.  Indiana is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after two straight games where they allowed 50% shooting or higher.  Houston is 15-2 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 233.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  This total of 233.5 is a very low total for a game involving the Hawks.

The OVER is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 games overall.  They have gone for 235 or more combined points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They take on a Bulls team that has changed offensive philosophy since losing Zach LaVine to shoot more 3-pointers and layups instead of mid-range jumpers.  

It has worked wonders as the Bulls are 8-4 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have scored at least 111 points in nine of those 12 games.  The OVER is 11-4 OVER in their last 15 games overall.

Atlanta is 12-4 OVER following a loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season.  That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time.  They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games.

The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week.  They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it.  The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.  They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat.  This one will be a similar shootout.

The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall.  They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL.

The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week.  A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead.  CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game.  Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday.  Lenoir did return to practice.

The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week.  They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers.  Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy.  The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall.

I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA, period.  They should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers today.  The Celtics aren't distracted and are on a business trip here in the midst of a four-game road trip.

After opening it with a OT loss at Golden State, the Celtics have been on a mission since.  They dominated the Kings 144-119 in Sacramento despite being on the 2nd of a back-to-back and off an OT game.  They had the next two days off and then crushed the Clippers 145-108 in Los Angeles on Saturday.  Now they will be rested and ready to go against the hated Lakers today.

The Lakers have been terrible since winning the in-season tournament.  They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games since the tournament.  They are banged up and distracted right now.  They have been on the road for eight of their last nine games and haven't been able to spend much time with family at home.  They have a lot of obligations to deal with back home for Christmas, which is a big distraction for them.  I like the mental state of the Celtics much more heading into this one.

The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following a road win.  Boston is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 233

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are even more of a dead nuts OVER team without them, and they have been for weeks now.

The OVER is 14-6 in Warriors last 20 games overall.  They have scored at least 118 points in five consecutive games while allowing at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games.  The Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in eight consecutive games.

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now and potent offensively when that's the case.  They have scored at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams can get to 115-plus in this one, which will lead to us easily cashing this OVER 233 ticket.

Golden State is 11-2 OVER when revenging a loss this season.  The Warriors are 13-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Golden State is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs ML -128

I was leaning toward the Bucs all week but I had to make sure that QB Trevor Lawrence was going to be out for the Jaguars.  As soon as I got that information I pulled the trigger on the Bucs.  Lawrence missed practice again Thursday and sources say he is unlikely to play due to a concussion and an ankle injury.

The Jaguars are in real trouble without him as they have one of the worst backup QB's in the NFL in CJ Bethard, which is saying something.  Bethard has a very hard time reading a defense and loves to just check it down or take off and run, and he's not very fast or athletic.  The Jaguars are going to be in a world of hurt offensively in this one, especially without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones as well.

The Jaguars are already in a world of hurt defensively, allowing 29.3 points per game and 425.3 yards per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Two of those games came against backup QB's in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning and the other was against the Ravens.  Now they must face Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that is absolutely humming right now.

The Bucs are 3-0 in their last three games overall and gaining confidence with each win.  They are trying to win this game and grab a stranglehold on this division.  Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, putting up 29 points on the Falcons two weeks ago and 34 points on the Packers last week.  He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, going 22-of-28 passing for 381 yards with 4 TD and zero INT while averaging 13.6 per attempt.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their entire starting 11 on offense is healthy, and they have been missing some key players on defense that they are likely to get back this week.  NT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis III, S Ryan Neal, CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David and LB Devin White have all missed time recently.  Amazingly, all seven are expected to play this week.  The stock on the Bucs is very much on the rise due to this return to health defensively.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans ML -135

Note: Merry Christmas! Those of you who bought this play later in the week get a much better line on the Texans at +3/+2.5 than I did when I hit the opener on Sunday night. I apologize to those who bet it early with me and got a worse line than current, which rarely happens. I expected CJ Stroud to return from a concussion, but it's going to be Case Keenum instead.   I added more money at +3.  I still expect the Texans to win this game even with Keenum.  This play was more of a fade of the Browns than anything.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have been at their best offensively at home, averaging 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage against the Titans to take pressure off Keenum.  

The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  Also expected to play are OT Laremy Tunsil, G Shaq Mason, WR John Metchie, S Jimmie Ward and LB Denzel Perryman as the injury report came out pretty clean on Thursday compared to what most were expecting.

Joe Flacco is getting way too much love right now.  He has beaten a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and a flat-lining Jaguars team at home.  He needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the Bears at home last week.  And in his lone road start, he lost 35-19 to the Rams.  Flacco has thrown 5 interceptions in his three starts and is playing behind the most banged-up offensive line in the NFL.  The Browns are missing their top three offensive tackles, and currently four more projected starters are questionable or doubtful.  Flacco and this offensive line will get exposed on the road this week in a hostile environment against a solid Houston defense.

The Browns are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season and getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play away from home.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-17 ATS games after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  The Browns are 14-36 ATS in their last 50 games vs. good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston will win this game outright.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense.  The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB.  Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week.  That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games.  Both teams will get their points in this one.

The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.  The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games.  Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in.  Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing.  I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result.

The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home.  They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road.  Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston.  This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns.

Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco.  They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams.  All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS.  They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line.  And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.

This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week.  Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense.

Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week.  These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses.  Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything.

The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable.  The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.  The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -1

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They will be 'all in' to get this win and stay alive in the tight NFC South race.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons, who are 4-10 ATS this season and one of the worst covering teams in the NFL.  But they easily could be a lot better as they have six losses by one score this season, including five by 5 points or fewer.

Arthur Smith said QB Taylor Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers last week.  Now we 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colts, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been fortunate in close games winning three of their last four by one score.  Their luck runs out this week, and their defense will get exposed.  The Falcons have the better defense allowing 19.9 points per game, 311.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Colts allow 24.5 points per game, 347.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

A big reason money is pouring in on the Falcons this week is due to the great news they got Thursday on their injury report.  LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary all returned to practice Thursday and they should have all five starters healthy for this one, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.  Defensively, DE Calais Campbell and NT David Onyemata both returned to practice Thursday as well.  The Falcons could be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season, which is what they need for this stretch run.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  The Warriors can't be this big of a favorite over anyone right now given their current state.  In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season!  They have just one win by more than 6 points in their last 20 games, making for a 19-1 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

That 11-point win came against the Wizards last night who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now it's the Warriors who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and on tired legs since they are short-handed.  The Warriors could also be caught looking ahead to their game against defending champion Denver on Christmas Day and not take the Blazers seriously tonight.

The Blazers are playing much more competitive basketball here of late with their last three games all decided by 5 points or less.  They upset the Suns, lost by 1 to the Wizards and lost by 4 to the Warriors.  That makes this a revenge spot for the Blazers as well as they just lost to the Warriors on December 17th.  They will be the more motivated team.

A big reason the Blazers are playing a lot better of late is that they have finally gotten healthier with Brogdon, Simons, Henderson, Grant and Ayton all missing some time this year.  But all five are healthy now.  The Warriors are just 3-10-1 ATS at home this season and have been consistently overvalued at home.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us given the tough rest spot is asking too much.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.