Winning Sports Picks

15* Jets/Cowboys NFL Saturday No-Brainer on New York -3

The Jets can’t afford to take their foot off the gas this week. They are 8-5 on the season and tied with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final two wild card spots in the AFC. Only two of those three teams will be going to the playoffs, so it’s essential that the Jets continue to win. I like their frame of mind coming into this one, and I really like the way this team is playing right now.

The Jets have won three straight games coming in and have been dominant in doing so. Offensively, the Jets are averaging 30.3 points and 437.7 yards per game in their last three games, and their offense just doesn’t get enough credit. Everyone knows that the Jets have an elite defense, giving up 16.0 points and 326.7 yards per game in their last three. So, they’re outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game and outgaining them by 111.0 yards per game in their last three.

The Cowboys are not going to be in a good frame of mind in this game. Entering last week, the Cowboys were only one game out of first place in the NFC. But after a 7-28 loss to the Packers, and with the Redskins, Eagles and Giants all winning, the Cowboys now find themselves a full two games back in the NFC East with three games to go. It will be nearly impossible for them to win the division now, and the players know it. Look for them to not even show up this week.

The Cowboys are 1-8 without Tony Romo as their starting quarterback. Their lone win came on a last-second field goal over the Washington Redskins. It was same old, same old for the Cowboys last week against the Packers. They got nothing going offensively as they managed just 270 total yards, including a 13-for-29 effort from Matt Cassel. They finished with just 99 passing yards. Their defense also had a poor game, giving up 28 points and 435 yards to the Packers.

Dallas has struggled offensively all season, averaging just 17.7 points and 325.8 yards per game on the year. Things aren’t going to get any easier against this Jets defense, which gives up just 19.7 points and 323.8 yards per game. Darrelle Revis just returned to the lineup last week and helped shut down the Titans, and having him back is huge to match up with Dez Bryant.

Dallas has really struggled at home this season. It is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS at home this year, getting outscored by 10.0 points per game on average. The Cowboys really haven’t had a very good home-field advantage since they got the new stadium. That new stadium attracts a lot of fans from the other team, and most of the time you’ll be hearing loud cheers when the other team does something well. I can’t imagine the fan support for this home game for the Cowboys is going to be very great this week given their current standing in the NFC East. They are done for.

Matt Cassel has been far worse than the other two quarterbacks on this roster in Romo and Brandon Weeden. Cassel is completing just 58.9 percent of his passes with a 5-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. All he does is check the ball down and rarely take deep shots, which makes this offense so predictable. The fact that Dez Bryant only has 27 receptions for 351 yards and two touchdowns despite playing in eight games tells you all you need to know. They don’t even look for him most the time.

Jason Garrett is 15-28 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Cowboys. Garrett is 4-12 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS losses at Dallas. The Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* Ohio/App State Camellia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers had a very solid 10-2 season this year.  Give them a lot of credit, but that record clearly has them overvalued heading into this Camellia Bowl against MAC opponent, Ohio.  The Mountaineers should not be favored by more than a touchdown.

After all, the Mountaineers played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They beat Howard, Old Dominion and Wyoming out of conference, and lost by 31 to Clemson in their other non-conference game.  Their other seven wins came against Sun Belt teams, and they lost to the second-best team they played this season in Arkansas State 27-40 at home.

The Mountaineers also have a couple of shaky performances within the Sun Belt that make be believe they are going to struggle to win this game, let alone beat Ohio by more than a touchdown.  They needed overtime to beat Try 44-41 at home, and they only won 34-27 at South Alabama as 18-point favorites in their final game of the season.

Ohio played a much more difficult schedule in the MAC and came away with an 8-4 record.  After a 5-1 start, this team lost three in a row, but showed a ton of heart with how they finished the season.  That finish has me liking their chances of pulling off the upset here in the Camellia Bowl.

Indeed, this is a veteran Bobcats bunch that returned 18 starters from last year, and they weren't going to go away quietly down the stretch.  They beat Kent State 27-0 and Ball State 48-31 at home before going on the road and upsetting Northern Illinois 26-21, a team that has won three of the last five MAC titles.

In these last three games, the Bobcats are scoring 33.7 points and averaging 484.0 yards per game.  They are giving up just 17.3 points and 313.3 yards per game.  As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game and outgaining them by 171 yards per game.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents with the only exception being the 38 yards they were outgained by Bowling Green, which won the MAC this year.

The Bobcats really got their running game going down the stretch, rushing for 298.5 yards per game over their final four games.  The Mountaineers have been vulnerable against the run at times as they gave up 309 yards to Arkansas State, 218 to Wyoming and 214 to South Alabama.  The Mountaineers rush for 268 yards per game, so stopping the run will be key.  The Bobcats held Northern Illinois to just 73 rushing yards on 38 carries in their final game, and they've allowed just 109.0 rushing yards per game in their last three.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Ohio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Bobcats.  Roll with Ohio Saturday.

15* Arizona/New Mexico 2015 Bowl Season Opener on New Mexico +9

This is a classic case of a team that wants to be in their bowl game and a team that doesn't.  I'll gladly back the team that wants to be in this New Mexico Bowl, and catching 9 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is in his fourth year of changing the culture at New Mexico.  After a 7-5 season, the Lobos will now be going to their fist bowl game since 2007.  They will be playing on their home field in Albuquerque, no less.

"It's a big deal for us to get in this game," Davie said. "Everyone knows the dynamics of what has gone on here to get this program back. We're getting better, and not everyone in the country can say that."

The Arizona Wildcats won 10 games in 2014 and made an appearance in the Pac-12 title game that culminated in a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.  After that performance last year, these players aren't going to be nearly as excited to be going to the New Mexico Bowl after a 6-6 season in 2015.

But they overachieved last year, and injuries really derailed them after a 3-0 start this season.  They needed a 37-30 home upset of Utah just to become bowl eligible after three straight losses, and they concluded their season with a 37-52 loss at Arizona State for four defeats in their final five games.

New Mexico has beaten some very quality teams here down the stretch.  It won 14-13 at home over Utah State as 20.5-point dogs, 31-24 at Boise State as 30.5 point dogs, and 47-35 at home against Air Force as 11-point dogs in three of its final four games.  As you can see, the Lobos relish the opportunity of playing the underdog role.

This is a great matchup for the Lobos.  They rush for 248 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, and their 37 rushing touchdowns are the sixth-most in the nation.  Arizona gives up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that only average 165 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Wildcats have surrendered at least 30 points nine times this season and rank 10th in the Pac-12 in total defense at 463.4 yards per game.  They have really been torched on the ground here of late, giving up at least 201 rushing yards in four straight games.  New Mexico rushed for 268 against Colorado State and 377 against Air Force in its final two games of the year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 44-18 (71%) ATS since 1992.

Arizona is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  It is losing these games by an average of 23.0 points per game.  The Lobos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win over a conference opponent as a home underdog.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* Bucs/Rams NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay +3

The oddsmakers are essentially saying that these are two evenly-matched teams considering home-field advantage is worth 2.5 to 3 points in the NFL. I don’t believe that’s even close to being the case as the Buccaneers are far and away the better team. But since the Bucs lost last week and the Rams won, the betting public is quick to back the Rams. That has created some nice line value to swoop in and grab the Bucs plus the points.

Tampa Bay sits at 6-7 on the season with still an outside shot to make the playoffs. It will be laying it all on the line in this one to get a win to try and stay alive. St. Louis was eliminated from playoff contention when it lost five straight games prior to a win over the Lions last week. But that was a hangover spot for the Lions, who had their three-game winning streak snapped the previous week against the Packers, who won on a last-second hail mary. The Lions didn’t even show up against the Rams.

The numbers show that the Bucs are the superior team. They rank 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 22.7 yards per game. The Rams rank 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game. The Rams have been outgained in eight of their 12 games this year, while the Bucs have outgained nine of their 12 opponents.

In fact, the Bucs have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents, which is the sign of a good team. The Rams have been outgained in five straight while losing five of their last six. They have been outgained by an average of 129.2 yards per game in their last five contests. The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 yards per play on defense. The Rams average 5.3 yards per play on offense and give up 5.5 yards per play on defense.

The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in total offense at 297.9 yards per game and 31st in scoring offense at 16.2 points per game. The key to stopping the Rams’ offense is stopping Todd Gurley and the running game, and the Bucs are well-equipped to do just that. The Bucs rank 8th in the NFL against the run at 94.1 yards per game allowed. They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. This is simply a great matchup for them.

The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The Rams are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last six Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Bucs are also 5-1 straight up following a loss in all games this season, so they have been resilient. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

15* Thunder/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 205

Look for a defensive battle tonight in this high-profile game between Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This contest will be nationally televised on TNT tonight, which means the defense from both teams will be turned up a notch.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA as the Cavs rank 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Thunder rank 10th.  Both teams have really been locking in defensively here of late.

The Thunder have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven straight games, and 99 or less in 10 of their last 11.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  The Cavs have allowed 100 or less in seven of their last eight games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight contests.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Cleveland is 11-2 to the UNDER after allowing 90 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 11-0 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this season.  OKC is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  These last three trends combine for a 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 199.5

Both of these teams have been profitable UNDER bets this season.  The Hawks are 16-10 to the UNDER, while the 76ers are 14-12 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 9-5 in Hawks' 14 home games, while the UNDER is 10-5 in 76ers' 15 road games.

The Hawks have taken a big step back offensively this season, while the 76ers rank 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 91.4 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta plays at the 19th-fastest pace in the NBA this season and will control the tempo playing at home.

The recent head-to-head history tells the story in this one.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and we've seen 198 or fewer combined points in all five.  We've seen 176, 176, 192, 174 and 198 combined points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.5.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER after two straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 90-37 (70.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hawks last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 191.5

The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season.  They have gone 18-5 to the UNDER in their 23 games this year.  The Nets haven't been too shabby themselves, going 15-9 to the UNDER in their 24 games.

The Heat rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Spurs have been better.  Both teams have struggled on the other end of the floor.  The Nets rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 18th.  The Heat rank 26th in pace with the Nets checking in at 15th.

This has been a very low-scoring series as four of the last five meetings have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 202, 172, 186, 178 and 190 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.6 combined points per game, which is roughly six points less than this posted total of 191.5.

The UNDER is 36-15 in Heat's last 51 road games, including a perfect 8-0 this season.  The Heat and they're opponents are combining for an average of just 182.2 points per game on the road this year.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Magic UNDER 198

The Charlotte Hornets and Orland Magic are two of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Hornets rank 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Magic check in at 7th in the first year under head coach Scott Skiles, who has always been a defensive guy.

While the Hornets have been solid offensively this year, the Magic check in at 21st in offensive efficiency.  Both teams like to play at slow paces, too.  The Hornets are 17th in pace while the Magic are 18th.  Look for an ugly, defensive battle tonight when these two teams get together.

That has been the case in recent meetings.  The Hornets and Magic have combined for 181, 188 and 196 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 188.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than this posted total of 198.

The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Hornets last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Hornets last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Magic's last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last four vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Giants/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -1

The Giants are a better team than their 5-7 record would suggest. They have blown four double-digit leads this season to lose games. It happened again last week against the Jets. However, the mindset of this team is till very good as they are tied for the NFC East lead despite their poor record. Even Tom Coughlin was doing jumping jacks in front of his team earlier this week to try and energize them given their favorable situation.

The Dolphins are all but eliminated from the playoffs. They have a much tougher road, and even if they win out to get to 9-7, they know it’s probably still not going to be enough. But this team has looked like they’ve packed it in for quite some time now, so the possibility of winning out is slim to none. Sure, they have a couple wins here recently, but their play has been awful and they were fortunate to win both games.

The Dolphins are 2-4 in their last six games, and they’ve been outgained in all six games while getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 124.5 yards per game. They lost 7-36 to the Patriots and were outgained by 167 yards, they lost 17-33 to the Bills and were outgained by 23 yards, they won 20-19 at Philadelphia despite getting outgained by 147 yards, they lost 14-24 to Dallas while getting outgained by 176 yards, they lost 20-38 to the Jets and got outgained by 78 yards, and then they won 15-13 last week against the Ravens despite getting outgained by 156 yards.

Miami’s offense managed just eight first downs and 219 total yards against the Ravens last week. This offense has averaged just 15.5 points and 286.3 yards per game over their last six games. The defense has been awful ever since losing top pass rusher Cameron Wake to a season-ending Achilles injury. The Dolphins are giving up 27.2 points and 410.8 yards per game over their last six games.

You look at the losses by the Giants this season and it’s easy to see that they are better than their 5-7 record. Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or less. They held 4th quarter leads in all five of their losses to the Cowboys (by 1), Falcons (by 4), Saints (by 3), Patriots (by 1) and Jets (by 3). I think they will be up enough on Miami that a comeback isn’t going to be possible for the Dolphins with the way they are playing right now.  Look for finishing to be the message by Coughlin this week, and for the Giants to execute down the stretch of this game to pull out the win.

The Giants are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and they have never lost in three visits to Miami. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight December games. The Dolphins are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a win by 3 points or less. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games overall. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday games. The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* Patriots/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England -3

I can’t see any way the Patriots lose their third straight game this week when you consider they haven't had a 3-game losing streak in 13 years.  They shouldn’t have lost their last two as they were in control of both games before uncharacteristically not being able to finish the deal. But those two losses have the Patriots undervalued here because without them, they would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 7-point favorite if they were 12-0 instead of 10-2.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots held a 21-17 lead over the Broncos with 6 minutes to play before fumbling a punt and giving them great field position. They eventually lost that game in overtime. Then last week, the Patriots led the Eagles 14-0 and were seemingly in control. But then they had a blocked punt returned for a TD, a 99-yard interception returned for a TD, and gave up an 83-yard punt return TD to the Eagles. They actually outgained the Eagles by 179 yards in that game, but they could not overcome those three non-offensive touchdowns given up.

You can bet that Bill Belichick will have his players’ attention this week. I look for them to respond in a big way as Belichick is one of my favorite coaches to back off a loss. Belichick is 42-23 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of New England. Belichick is also 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset loss as the coach of the Patriots. Finally, Belichick is 25-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of New England.

Yes, the Texans have won four of their last five games coming in, but it’s come mostly against suspect competition. They did have a good road win over the Bengals, but their three home wins during this stretch have come against Tennessee without Marcus Mariota, the Jets and the struggling Saints. They lost 21-30 on the road to the Buffalo Bills last week, and now they have to face a pissed-off opponent in the Patriots.

The numbers show that the Patriots are far and away the superior team, especially offensively. They average 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7 per play. Houston only averages 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7. New England allows 5.4 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.7. Houston is just behind at 5.5 per play allowed against teams that average 5.7.

Houston head coach Bill O'Brien was the former offensive coordinator of the Patriots.  Houston QB Brian Hoyer was also a former backup to Tom Brady.  So, Belichick and company are very familiar with these two.  They know the tendencies of an O'Brien-coached offense, and they certainly know Hoyer's tendencies.  Also, Houston defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was behind three Super Bowl-winning defenses in New England.  Look for the Patriots to use the knowledge they have against the Texans, who had some bad news this week when J.J. Watt broke his hand in practice.

The Patriots have obviously had some injuries set them back a little here of late.  But only Julian Edelman has been ruled out, and it's possible that several key players return this week, including LB Dont'a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, and TE Rob Gronkowski.  WR Danny Amendola and TE Scott Chandler are expected to play.  Even with the injuries, it's not like the Patriots are broken.  They scored 24 points against the top-ranked Broncos defense and they put up 28 points and 427 total yards against the Eagles.

New England is 5-1 all-time against Houston with its only loss coming back in 2010 when it rested its starters in Week 16 with a first-round bye already locked up. So we can throw out that game because the Patriots weren’t trying. In their five wins over the Texans during this stretch, the Patriots have outscored them by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. After failing to cover the spread in three straight games, New England is finally back to being undervalued here.  The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss. The Patriots are 72-34-2 ATS in their last 108 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 211.5

Defensive anchor Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup today for the Phoenix Suns.  He has missed the past eight games due to injury.  Alex Len has played well in his place, averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 boards over his last four games.  But having Chandler back makes Phoenix a much better defensive team.

I believe this total has been inflated because Minnesota has gone over the total in four straight games.  But the last two have gone to overtime.  The Timberwolves were tied 100-100 with the Nuggets at the end of regulation in their last game before losing 108-111, going over the 202-point total.

The last five meetings in Phoenix between these teams have all gone UNDER this 211.5-point total as they've combined for 203, 209, 211, 203 and 167 points in those five.  That's an average of 198.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Minnesota is 17-4 UNDER after a road games where both teams score 100 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 27-12 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a tremendous home team and an awful road team under current head coach Tim Miles.  Getting them as only 1-point home favorites over Rhode Island today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Nebraska has gone 5-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 19.3 points per game.  The Huskers' only home loss came by a final of 72-77 to Miami as 5.5-point dogs.  The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskers are 6-4 this season with their four losses all coming to very good teams in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton.

Rhode Island is off to a 6-3 start this year, but its six wins have come against American, Cleveland State, TCU, Rider, Holy Cross and Houston.  The Rams were a promising team this year until E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury.  He was their best player last year, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  Without him, this is just a slightly above-average team.

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Nebraska is 49-31 ATS in its last 80 home games off a road loss.  Miles is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Nebraska.  Miles is 11-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Nebraska.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

25* AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +10

I have been backing the Chiefs with a ton of success here of late. They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and I’ve been on them in four of those games. But I know when it’s time to jump off the bandwagon, and this is clearly the week.

The Chiefs haven’t been more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of their six games during this winning streak, but now they’re all of a sudden a 10-point favorite. They have only been more than a 4.5-point favorite once, and that was in a 17-18 home loss as 9-point favorites to the Bears.  This artificial line inflation is necessary for oddsmakers to try and even out the action. They know the betting public is going to be quick to back the Chiefs again, so they purposely set this line higher than it should be to try and get some money on the Chargers to even out the action.

But this is way too many points, especially for a rivalry game in which the Chargers are going to show up for. For starters, they want revenge from a 33-3 home loss to the Chiefs three weeks ago. Secondly, the Chiefs have tried to spoil the Chargers season each of the last two years, and they did so with success last year. But now it’s the Chargers turn to return the favor, and there’s no question they are going to show up this week.

Fans in San Diego are awful, which is why the Chargers have had no home-field advantage this season. The fans know they are likely moving to Los Angeles. But when these San Diego players get to go on the road, it’s kind of a breathe of fresh air to get away from all the craziness at home. They have played some very good football on the road this season.

Yes, the Chargers are only 1-4 on the road this season, but they’ve only been blown out once. They only lost by 5 at Cincinnati, by 7 at Green Bay, and by 3 at Baltimore. In their last road game, the Chargers won 31-25 over the Jaguars as 5-point dogs. I look for them to come through with another great effort on the road and to easily stay within this 10-point margin.  They had the ball late with a chance to win at Cincinnati, and they also had the ball down inside Green Bay's 5-yard line with a chance to force OT late.

The Chiefs have been fortunate to win their last two games. They trailed the Bills 16-7 before outscoring them 23-6 the rest of the way and winning 30-22 at home. They were actually outgained by the Bills in that game. Then, last week, the Raiders gift-wrapped the win for the Chiefs. The Raiders led that game 20-14 before a costly interception deep in KC territory that was nearly returned for a TD. The Chiefs went on to score 20 points over the final 11:17 thanks to Raiders turnovers to win 34-20. But the Chiefs were outgained 232-361 by the Raiders, or by 129 total yards.

The Chargers have outgained the Chiefs in 13 of their last 16 meetings while going 11-5 straight up during that span. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. San Diego is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers have become a huge public team now with their 12-0 start that has included a 9-3 ATS record. The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which is why they are forced to tack on a few more points than there should be. That was the case last week as the Panthers were 7-point favorites over the Saints and failed to cover as they won 41-38. It’s the case again this week.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons right now because they have lost five straight coming in. So it’s really the perfect storm here. Asking the Panthers to win by 8-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much this week. They are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL right now.

The Panthers have pretty much locked up a first-round bye already, so it’s inevitable that they are going to be taking their foot off the gas in the coming weeks. They already did last week but got away with it, beating an awful Saints team 41-38. They got away with it because the Saints have a record-setting poor defense.

The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win and will be laying it all on the line Sunday to try and turn their season around. They have lost five straight and six of their last seven coming in. But they easily could have won all seven of those games, they just aren’t getting it done late. All six losses came by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer. So the Falcons really haven’t been blown out all season, which is what it’s going to take for the Panthers to cover this spread.  I don't expect that to happen with how much fight the Falcons will be playing with this week.

The numbers actually indicate that this is a very evenly-matched game, and that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.2 yards per game on the season. That’s only one spot behind the 5th-place Panthers (+46.8 yards/game). The offense isn’t broken as the Falcons rank 5th at 386.7 yards per game. The defense is also vastly improved this year, ranking 16th at 342.5 yards per game.

The Falcons have gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. That’s almost unheard of in the NFL, and there’s no question that streak has them undervalued right now. There’s also no question that that streak isn’t going to last a whole lot longer. In fact, there is a great system supporting this play that involves backing teams who have been beaten by the spread by a ton of points in recent games.

Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 (92.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +7.5

Because the Jets are in the playoff hunt, they are overvalued right now. Because the Titans are out of the playoff hunt, they are undervalued. Contrary to popular belief, teams don’t just pack it in when they’re out of the playoff hunt. The Titans have showed up every week this season, and I look that to continue this week as they give the Jets a run for their money as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Tennessee is a much better team than its 3-9 record would indicate, but it has had some poor fortune in close games this year. Five of its nine losses have come by 6 points or less. That includes a 2-point loss to Indianapolis, a 1-point loss to Buffalo, a 3-point loss to Atlanta, a 6-point loss to Jacksonville and a 3-point loss to Oakland.

But the Titans were finally rewarded with a win last week while thoroughly outplaying the Jaguars despite only beating them 42-39. They racked up 467 total yards while limiting the Jaguars to 383, outgaining them by 84 yards. Marcus Mariota had a great game, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 112 yards and a score in the win.

New York hasn’t exactly been playing well enough here of late to warrant being a 7.5-point favorite. It has gone 3-4 in its last seven games overall with only one win by more than this 7-point spread, which was a 38-20 win over struggling Miami. The Jets only beat the Jaguars by 5 and the Giants by 3 for their other two wins. They were outgained by 146 yards by the Jaguars, and they needed to erase a 10-point 4th quarter deficit to beat the Giants.

While Mariota is only going to continue to get better to help out this offense, it’s the defense that makes the Titans so underrated. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 336.1 yards per game. They are 9th in the NFL against the pass at 230.6 yards per game. That’s key because the Jets have had to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick more than they’d like of late. They’ve been held to 90 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last seven games.

The Titans have actually played their best football on the road this season. Two of their three wins have come away from home. They’ve been especially stout defensively in road games, giving up 21.8 points and 308.2 yards per game. Their offense has also held up its end of the bargain in road games, averaging 21.8 points and 340.8 yards per game. They are outgaining teams by 32.6 yards per game on the road this season.

Plays against favorites of of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. These marginal winning teams are time and time again overvalued against teams with poor records this late in the season. That is the case in this game as I see it. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a win against a division opponent.  Also, the Jets are trying to win their 3rd straight game overall, and they haven't won three straight since 2011.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be out for revenge on the Cincinnati Bengals. They had them beat in the first meeting, leading 10-6 entering the fourth quarter. But they were outscored 10-0 in the final period. It was Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury after a 4-game absence, and he was rusty, throwing three interceptions in the loss. The Steelers still outgained the Bengals 356-296, or by 60 total yards, and should have won.

Roethlisberger is now healthy and hitting on all cylinders. His four games since have been out of this world. He threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 win over the Raiders, 379 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-9 win over the Browns, 456 yards and a touchdown in a 30-39 loss to the Seahawks, and 364 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-10 win over the Colts, respectively. He has averaged 383.3 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns while helping the Steelers to averages of 35.8 points and 529.0 total yards per game in their last four.

The Bengals are not equipped to stop Roethlisberger right now due to the state of their secondary. Starting cornerback Adam Jones has been ruled out with a foot injury that he played through the last two weeks, but cannot any longer. Also, CBs Leon Hall (back) and Josh Shaw (head) are questionable, while starting safety George Iloka (groin) is doubtful.. Fellow CB Darqueze Denard is already on injured reserve.  To say they are short-handed right now would be a massive understatement.

Pittsburgh ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 20.0 points per game. This is a bend but don’t break defense that stiffens up in the red zone. Andy Dalton and company have struggled against this defense. In fact, the Steelers have held the Bengals to 21 or fewer points in 12 straight meetings. The Bengals have averaged just 16.2 points per game in those 12 meetings. They held the Bengals to 16 points and 296 total yards in the first meeting this year while intercepting Dalton twice. The Steelers have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series overall.

While Roethlisberger is primed for a big game against this depleted Cincinnati secondary, look for the running game to also be a huge difference in why the Steelers get revenge in the rematch. DeAngelo Williams hasn’t missed a beat in replacing Le’Veon Bell. He has rushed for 387 yards and added 189 receiving yards over the past four games.  The Steelers average 123 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry on the season. The Bengals are not great against the run as they give up 4.5 yards per rush.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. teams with winning records overall. Pittsburgh is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight December games. Pittsburgh is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Bucks UNDER 207

Both the Warriors and Bucks will be fatigued tonight after playing Friday as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for both teams.  That's especially the case for the Warriors, who played a double-overtime thriller against the Celtics last night.  Neither team will be looking to push the pace in this one as that fatigue affects their offense more than their defense.

Things will be very tough for the Bucks, who rank 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The Warriors rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee will control the pace tonight playing at home and will slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Bucks rank 29th in the NBA in pace, averaging 95.3 possessions per game.

The Bucks have scored 95 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have been pretty good defensively, though, giving up 95 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall.  The two meetings between these teams last year saw 195 and 203 combined points.

Golden State is 30-16 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Bucks last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Hornets UNDER 203

Both of these teams played last night and will be fatigued tonight.  Especially the Celtics, who went to double-overtime against the Warriors.  That fatigue will show up more on the offensive end as neither team looks to push the pace often, and both will struggle shooting the ball as well.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Charlotte ranked 6th in efficiency.  Boston allows 43.3% shooting this year while Charlotte allows 43.8% shooting.

Boston is 10-0 UNDER in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 28-12 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Hornets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Charlotte.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 53

Nothing is certain but death, taxes and Army/Navy going UNDER the total.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this 2015 meeting with this 53-point total.  This line is going to continue to drop, so make sure and get your bet in early.

Not only have Army and Navy gone UNDER the total in nine straight, they have finished with 48 or fewer combined points in all nine meetings as well.  They combined for 27 last year with a 55.5-point total.  They have averaged a combined 36.6 points per game in their last nine meetings.  That's nearly 17 points less than this 53-point total.

Numbers can be thrown out the window when these two teams play one another.  That's because it's a rivalry game, and both teams know each other like the back of their hands.  They both run the triple-option, so the defenses are used to it having practiced against their offenses on a daily basis.  There is no trickery when these teams get together.  It's simply who wants it more.

Obviously, when you know two teams are going to run the football almost every play, the clock is going to keep moving without incompletions.  Army averages 4 completions and 8 passing attempts per game, Navy averages 4 completions and 8 attempts per game.  Army runs the ball 52 times per game, Navy runs the ball 58 times per game.

Navy is very good against the run, allowing just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 193 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Army has been better against the run than the pass.  It allows 163 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 156 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Another key here is that Navy is expected to win in a blowout as the line for this game is Navy -22.  So, if Navy gets up big, it's not going to try and run up the scoreboard.  Look the Midshipmen to really slow down the pace of their offense once they get a substantial lead.

Both teams went UNDER the total when they faced another Academy school in Air Force, which also runs the triple-option.  Navy beat Air Force 33-11 for 44 combined points with a 49.5-point total on October 3rd.  Army lost to Air Force 20-3 for 27 combined points with a 50.5-point total.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.  Army is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Midshipmen's last five neutral site games.  These four trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in the Army/Navy game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +13

The Butler Bulldogs are laying a few too many points today to the Tennessee Vols.  This is a Tennessee team that beat Butler 67-55 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad for first-year head coach Rick Barnes.

The Vols are just 4-3 this season, but they really haven't been blown out yet as their three losses came by 2 at Georgia Tech, by 3 on the road to George Washington, and by 11 to Nebraska.  The Vols have not played since November 28th, so they have had a lot of time to prepare for Butler.  They know the Bulldogs inside and out having two weeks to get ready for them.  You can bet they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on thefloor.

Butler has had some lackluster performances this season that would make it hard for me to envision it covering this 13-point spread.  After all, the Bulldogs only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 16 as 29.5-point home favorites, and Indiana State by 14 as 17-point home favorites.  Tennessee is more than capable of staying within 13 and possibly pulling off the upset.

Tennessee is 13-3 ATS versus teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home loss.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Vikings/Cardinals NFC ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -7.5

UPDATE: I put this pick out at -7.5 Wednesday afternoon.  I realize it has moved all the way up to -11 in some places as of Thursday afternoon.  If you get -10 or more, it would go down to a 15* play instead of a 20*.  Thanks, Jack.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They are 10-2 on the season and working on a six-game winning streak.  Even in their two losses they shouldn't have lost.  They outgained St. Louis by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss, and Pittsburgh by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss.  The numbers support my statement that this is the NFL's best team.

The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 102.7 yards per game.  That's 32 yards per game better than second-place Seattle.  Arizona ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense at 419.5 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 316.8 yards per game allowed.

Arizona is coming off its most complete game of the season in a 27-3 win at St. Louis.  The offense racked up a season-high 524 yards, while the defense limited the Rams to just nine first downs and 212 total yards.  It outgained the Rams by a whopping 312 yards for the game.  Carson Palmer continued his amazing season with 356 passing yards and two touchdowns, while David Johnson and Kerwynn Williams combined to rush for 158 yards, proving that they don't miss Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson.

Minnesota faced a similar team to Arizona last week in Seattle and was killed 7-38 at home.  The Vikings were held to a season-low 125 total yards while giving up 413, getting outgained by 308 yards by the Seahawks. Minnesota is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in my opinion.  In spite of its 8-4 record, it ranks just 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 26.5 yards per game.

The Vikings do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Cardinals.  They rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense at 315.8 yards per game.  Teddy Bridgewater has thrown only eight touchdowns against eight interceptions on the season.  When Adrian Peterson doesn't have it going, the Vikings are lost offensively because Bridgewater is a liability.

It's going to be tough sledding again this week for Peterson.  That's because the Cardinals rank 4th in the NFL against the run.  They give up just 89.0 rushing yards per game.  They have held five of their last six opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.  Bridgewater is going to be forced to make more plays this week, and I don't think he's up to the task.

Minnesota's defense is also in shambles right now.  With nose tackle Linval Joseph (foot) out, and linebacker Anthony Barr (groin/hand) and safety Harrison Smith (hamstring/knee) forced to leave the game, Minnesota allowed a season-high 433 total yards - 173 on the ground - against the Seahawks. Those three were among eight Minnesota defensive players whose statuses are uncertain for this contest.  But Joseph, Barr and Smith are all expected to miss this game.

What I really love about this Cardinals team is that they are making a point of finishing strong after last year's collapse, which came without the services of Carson Palmer.  I'd say they made a statement last week against the Rams that they aren't about to let up.

"We're held to a very high standard," said Palmer, second in the NFL with 29 TDs and a 106.3 passer rating. "We're coached extremely hard and we're still shooting for a perfect game ... That hasn't happened yet."

"We're still looking to improve," hard-to-please Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told the team's official website. "I've got to find reasons to holler at them.  There is time to look back on the journey and enjoy it but this isn't it."

Arizona is 50-28 ATS in its last 78 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a win.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Thunder UNDER 212.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers and the betting public think.

The Thunder have been great defensively here of late.  They have given up 99 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  I look for that trend to continue here against a Hawks team that has been held to 98 or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Hawks have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 101 points or fewer as well.

Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Five of those have seen 199 or fewer combined points as well.  Based off that recent head-to-head history alone, this total has clearly been set too high tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.

OKC is 7-0 UNDER versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  The Thunder are 8-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this year.  OKC is 7-0 UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN2 Rivalry Play on Iowa State -7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season and they are one of the most fun teams to watch because they share the ball so well.  They average 18 assists per game, including 21 at home.

They have a ton of balance with five players averaging at least 12.9 points.  Abdel Nader has averaged 16.3 in the past four, and Monte Morris has scored at least 12 in every game while leading the Big 12 with 7.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double (13.9 points, 11.6 rebounds).

Iowa State's numbers at both ends of the floor are off the charts.  It is putting up 86.9 points per game and 51.7% shooting against teams that give up 71.7 points and 43.5% shooting.  Defensively, it is giving up 66.6 points per game and 38.3% shooting against teams that average 77.7 points and 44.3% shooting.

Iowa is a quality team from the Big Ten, but it has lost to the two best teams it has faced in Dayton and Notre Dame. This will also be just the second true road game of the season for the Hawkeyes.  They were crushed 75-90 at home by the Cyclones last year, and they don't stand much of a chance of keeping this one close in Ames this time around.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these teams by an average of 21.3 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -3.5

This is a very generous line we're getting here on the Illinois Fighting Illini as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Yale Bulldogs.  We'll take advantage in what should result in a blowout victory for the home team tonight.

Illinois is undervalued right now because it is off to just a 4-5 start this season.  But it has been playing much better of late.  It has won three of its last five.  Its only two losses came to Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Illini played Iowa State tough before giving way late in an 11-point loss.  They only lost by 5 to Notre Dame.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Western Carolina, and they also beat a good UAB by 14 points during this stretch.

Yale has gotten off to a 5-3 start this season.  Its five wins have come against Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Lehigh, Bryant and Vermont.  It has lost all three of its toughest games, including a 19-point loss to Duke and a 34-point loss to Albany.

Illinois is 9-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Illinois is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last two years.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Roll with Illinois Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 12-8 start while ranking 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency.  They have obviously been great on both ends of the floor, but it's their improvement on offense that has made the difference this season.

Charlotte has won seven of its last nine games with its only losses coming to conference leaders Golden State and Cleveland.  It has protected its home court very well this season, going 9-3 in all home games.  The Hornets are scoring 105.0 points per game and allowing 97.6 at home this year.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 12-7 start to the season.  Well, they have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule, playing 14 of their first 19 games in Miami.  They are just 2-3 on the road this season, scoring only 90.6 points per game away from home.  They have lost their last two trips to Charlotte since parting ways with Lebron James.

Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Maryland/UConn ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Maryland -2

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the best teams in the country.  Most of the preseason media outlets picked either Maryland or North Carolina as the No. 1 ranked teams in the country.  It's hard to argue those rankings with what I've seen from both teams thus far.

Maryland is off to a 7-1 start this season, outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  It has beaten some quality opponents like Georgetown and Rhode Island.  Its only loss this season came as an 8-point road underdog to those North Carolina Tar Heels.  The Terrapins lost that game 81-89 and hung very tough in a hostile atmosphere.  Keep in mind that the Tar Heels got back their best player in Marcus Paige in time for that game.

Connecticut is certainly an improved team this season after missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  But this Huskies squad hasn't been able to beat the best competition they have faced.  They are 5-2 this season with losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse.  They did beat Michigan, but that win isn't that great considering Michigan lost to Xavier at home by 16.

Mayrland has received solid play from returning starters Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Jake Layman (11.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  But the biggest reason for the hype from this team was the additions of Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon.  Both Carter (13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Sulaimon (11.6 ppg, 52.9% 3-pointers) have lived up to the hype.

The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.  MarkTurgeon is 50-26 ATS in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  Turgeon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points as the coach of the Terrapins.  Take Maryland Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas +4.5

Believe it or not, the Dallas Cowboys are still within striking distance of first place in the NFC East, even with a 3-8 record. They only trail the first-place Redskins (5-6) by two games. Their only hope of winning the division comes with a win this week. So, there’s no question that the Cowboys will be laying it all on the line. They didn’t put Tony Romo on the injured reserve because, if they do make a run and make the playoffs, now it’s possible for him to come back.

”It’s part of our message to provide perspective,” coach Jason Garrett said. ”Often times you have to provide a perspective about where we are, where we are, where we want to go and how we want to do it. So that certainly will be part of the message.”

It’s not like the Cowboys have been awful without Romo. Yes, they are 0-7 without him, but five of those losses came by a touchdown or less. The problem with the Cowboys is that they rank last in the NFL in turnover differential (-12) because they’ve force the fewest turnovers (7) in the league. There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and it’s safe to say that the Cowboys have been on the unlucky end of the spectrum up to this point. But this isn’t a bad team.

Dallas will get a mini-bye week to get ready for this game against Washington. That’s because it last played on Thursday against Carolina in a game that quickly turned into a blowout due to two defensive touchdowns by the Panthers. The last time the Cowboys had a bye week, they returned from it to face the Giants on the road. They did lose that game 20-27, but they outplayed the Giants and should have won. They outgained the Giants by 171 yards in that game, but lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.

When you look at the numbers, you could make the argument that the Cowboys are actually the better team. They rank 16th in the NFL in yardage differential (-0.6 per game) behind a gritty defense that is only giving up 332.0 yards per game. Washington ranks 25th in yardage differential (-27.1 per game), and its defense is allowing 366.6 yards per game. The Cowboys held the Dolphins to 210 total yards two weeks ago and the Panthers to 294 yards last week.

While the Cowboys have had great health this season outside of Romo and are very healthy coming into this one, the Redskins have a lot of injury concerns.  They are without CB Chris Culliver and G Kory Lichtensteiger.  They have a plethora of players questionable with nagging injuries, including DE Chris Baker, S Dashon Goldson, DE Jason Hatcher, LB Perry Riley, LB Keenan Robinson, DE Trenton Robinson, RB Chris Thompson and CB Deshazor Everett.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. Washington is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games after trailing its previous game by 14 points or more at the half. The Cowboys are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games following a loss by 14 points or more. The Redskins are 37-63 ATS in their last 100 games as a home favorites.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Villanova Battle of Unbeatens on Oklahoma +4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the country, while the Villanova Wildcats come in as the No. 8 ranked team.  This is one of the biggest early-season non-conference games in college basketball.  But I believe the Sooners are the better team and should not be underdogs.

Oklahoma returned four starters from last year and is a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 this season.  I certainly like what I've seen from this team en route to a 5-0 start.  The Sooners went on the road and beat a very good Memphis team 84-78.  They also crushed Wisconsin 65-48 at home.  Both of those teams are better than anything that Villanova has faced thus far.

Villanova is off to a 7-0 start this season with its seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's.  This will by far the toughest test for the Wildcats yet.  They only returned two starters this season and are clearly overvalued due to their 5-1 ATS record in the early going.

Buddy Hield is a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range.  Head coach Lon Kruger has stated that this is the hardest-working team he's every been around, and that's a huge statement for a guy with his credentials.  The other three returning starters happen to be their next-three highest scorers in Isaiah Cousins (13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Ryan Spangler (12.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - after two consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after two straight covers as a double digit favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1997.  Okalhoma is 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning in these spots by 19.5 points per game.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11

This is strictly a spot play.  I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday.  They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home.  It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.

Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.

In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule.  It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams.  Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4).  No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.

Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites.  Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins.  Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints +7

It’s now or never for the New Orleans Saints. At 4-7 on the season, the Saints are in must-win mode from here on out if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Look for them to put their best foot forward this week. That’s especially the case now that they have a chance to knock off the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, a division rival. There’s no reason to question their motivation heading into this one as a result.

New Orleans is undervalued right now due to losing three straight, including back-to-back blowout losses to the Redskins and Texans on the road. But the Saints have been much better at home this season. They are 3-2 at home with both of their losses coming by a touchdown or less. They have beaten the Falcons, Cowboys and Giants at home this season. The Superdome remains one of the toughest places to play in the NFL today.

Carolina could not be more overvalued. With its 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record this season comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to here down the stretch. One of the easiest ways to see that the Panthers are laying too many points is to compare this line with their first meeting. The Panthers were 10-point home favorites in their first meeting, and that was only because Drew Brees didn’t play. If Brees would have played, that line would have been in the -4 to -5 range. Now the Panthers are 7-point road favorites in the rematch with a healthy Brees this time, when the line should be around a pick 'em or Saints favored based off the line from the first meeting.

Plus, the Panthers only beat the Saints 27-22 and failed to cover the 10-point spread in their first meeting at home. In fact, the Panthers have only beaten the Saints by more than a touchdown once in the last 11 meetings. That fact alone shows that there’s value in backing the Saints as touchdown home underdogs in this one. The Panthers aren’t going to be lucky in the turnover department forever. They have forced 16 turnovers in their last five games, and they are +10 in turnover differential in their last three games alone. That’s almost unheard of.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) – after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

Sean Payton is 13-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is 21-9 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is also 11-3 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of the Saints. The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -2.5

It would be foolish to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They simply have something special going right now. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Not only are they winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last five opponents a combined 160-61, or by an average of 19.8 points per game.

The catalyst has been their defense, which has allowed 18 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. The lone exception was last week when they gave up 22 points to the Bills. But the offense proved it could hold up its end of the bargain. Trailing 16-7 late in the second quarter, the Chiefs outscored the Bills 23-6 the rest of the way to earn a 30-22 victory.

I really like this matchup for the Chiefs. The Raiders are a pass-heavy offense with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. Well, the Chiefs have been tremendous against the pass during this winning streak, allowing just 195 passing yards per game over their last five contests. The Raiders aren’t exactly flourishing offensively right now. They’ve been held to an average of 17 points per game over their last three. The Raiders haven’t been good defensively all season as they rank 27th in total defense in giving up 391 yards per game.

The Chiefs have won three of their last four meetings with the Raiders, outscoring them by an average of 14.0 points per game in the process. The only exception came last year in a 20-24 road loss. But that was a Thursday night game on a short week. The Chiefs were coming off a huge home win over the Seahawks the previous week, and it was clearly a letdown spot for them. The Raiders were 0-10 entering that game, and they took advantage of a Chiefs team ripe for the upset and won. The Chiefs have a lot more at stake now and will be focused when these teams meet up in Oakland.

What you have to love about the Chiefs when deciding to put your money on them is that they don’t turn the ball over. The haven’t committed a turnover in five straight games, and outside of a 5-turnover effort against the Broncos in Week 2, they have committed a total of three turnovers in their other 10 games combined. The Raiders have committed eight turnovers in their last four games. The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, and the Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland.

The Raiders are one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 35-62 ATS record in their last 97 home games. Andy Reid has gone 58-42 ATS as a visitor in his career. Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games where the line is +3 to -3, and 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Kansas City is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +1

The Atlanta Falcons have had a nightmarish run here since opening 5-0. They have lost four straight and five of their six games since. Three of those losses came by a combined seven points. They certainly are a better team than they’ve shown, but they’ve simply been done in by turnovers. They have committed a combined 16 turnovers in their last six games and are -8 in turnover differential during this span. That has been the difference.

Matt Ryan isn’t known as being a quarterback who has turnover problems, so I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything. Look for the Falcons to shore up the turnovers sooner rather than later, which will result in them getting back in the win column often in the coming games. Because when you look at everything else about this team, it’s easy to see that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL.

Indeed, the Falcons rank 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 54.4 yards per game. The top seven teams in yardage differential are the Cardinals, Broncos, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks, Panthers, and Bengals in that order, so they are in some elite company. They are 5th in total offense at 392.8 yards per game, and they are 11th in total defense at 338.4 yards per game. Dan Quinn has made this a vastly improved defensive team this season.

Atlanta had outscored Tampa Bay a combined 83-31 in two meetings last year before losing 20-23 (OT) at home in their first meeting this season. But that was about as fluky a loss as you could have. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 496-290 for the game, or by 206 total yards. You won’t find many instances where an NFL team outgained an opponent by 200-plus yards and lost. So, now it’s time for payback for the Falcons, who were -4 in turnover differential in the first meeting.

The Bucs have not played well at home this year. They are 2-3 at home, getting outscored by 9.0 points per game and giving up 29.6 points per game. Their only two home wins came 38-31 over Jacksonville and 10-6 over Dallas. They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Cowboys, who were still without Tony Romo at that time.

The Falcons will get a big boost to their offense this week with the return of Devonta Freeman.  He sat out last week due to a concussion.  Freeman is one of the best backs in the NFL, rushing for 764 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 48 balls for 420 yards and two scores.  This offense certainly missed him last week, but they'll get back to being dominant on this side of the ball with him back.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are not.  LB Bruce Carter, DT Gerald McCoy, T Gosder Cherilus, WR Vincent Jackson, DE George Johnson and G Ali Marpet are all questionable.  Starting TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is doubtful with a shoulder injury.

Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses. The Falcons are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The Falcons are 38-13-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Due to going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall, Atlanta is also undervalued here, and there are several trends that support that theory.  Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-33 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +7

I’ve been very impressed with how well Blaine Gabbert has played since taking over for Colin Kaepernick. He threw two touchdown passes in their 17-16 win over the Falcons in his first start. He then held his own against the Seahawks on the road, completing 22 of 34 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Gabbert nearly led the upset of the Cardinals last week, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 13-19 loss.  Keep in mind that that game was tied 13-13 late in the fourth quarter against one of the NFL's best teams.

The Chicago Bears are way overvalued here as 7-point favorites. They have won five games this season, but four of those wins came by a combined 10 points, so they have only covered this 7-point margin once. Amazingly, the Bears have been an underdog in all 11 games this season. So, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. You would think they would be a small favorite with that being the case, but instead they are laying a full touchdown.  It's time to fade them now.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Bears. They are coming off their biggest win of the season last week in a 17-13 road win over the Packers, and now I expect them to come out flat off such a big victory. They had no business winning that game anyways as they were outgianed by 75 yards by the Packers. The difference was that they won the turnover battle 2-0, which is rare for a Jay Cutler-quarterbacked team.

The Bears have actually played their best football on the road this season. They have been awful at home, going 1-4 and getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. Their defense has allowed a whopping 27.8 points per game at home this year. That’s not the kind of performance that would warrant the Bears being favored by a touchdown at home.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. San Francisco is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a close win by 7 points or less. The Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Week 13.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -4

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion. They have opened 9-2 this year, and their two losses were very fluky. They outgained the Steelers by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss, and they outgained the Rams by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss. Now they are going to want revenge on these Rams, who are reeling right now and quickly have fallen out of the playoff race with four straight losses.

The numbers tell the story for me in this one. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 83.6 yards per game. The Rams rank 27th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 37.0 yards per game. Arizona is an elite team on both sides of the football. It ranks 1st in total offense at 410.0 yards per game, and 5th in total defense at 326.4 yards per game.  The Cardinals are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 32.3 points per game.

St. Louis has an average defense, giving up 341.0 yards per game, but it is atrocious offensively. It ranks 31st in the NFL in total offense at 304.0 yards per game, and it is scoring just 16.9 points per game. The Rams just haven’t gotten anything from the quarterback position. Nick Foles has thrown seven touchdowns against nine interceptions this year. Case Keenum has only completed 46.2 percent of his passes this season. Whoever is under center against the Cardinals won’t be able to do enough to keep up with them in this one.

Arizona is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with St. Louis. It won by 20, 17 and 6 points in the three previous meetings before losing 22-24 at home to the Rams back on October 4th in their first meeting this year. But that was a fluky loss because the Cardinals outgained the Rams 447-328 for the game. Carson Palmer threw for 352 yards on this Rams’ defense, but the Cardinals lost the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference. The Rams won’t be so fortunate in the rematch.

The Rams are facing a lot of turmoil right now. Their 4-game losing streak has them out of the playoff hunt, and there are rumors that the team has quit on Jeff Fisher. That’s hard to argue give their recent performances. They lost at home 13-37 to the Bears three weeks ago and were outgained by 112 yards. They lost 13-16 on the road to the Ravens two weeks ago in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 175 yards. They then lost last week to the Bengals 7-31 on the road and showed no fight.

Foles is expected to to get the start.  But the Rams have some worries on defense as well.  They are expected to be without arguably their best player in DE Robert Quinn.  Also, starting CB Trumaine Johnson is doubtful for this one.  That's not good news going up against the league's top offense this weekend.

Arizona stumbled down the stretch of the regular season last year and let Seattle come back and win the division.  These players are making a point of not letting that happen again, so I love their mindset coming into this one.  Captain Patrick Peterson called a defense-only meeting to go over mistakes from last weekend. The Cardinals are trying to stay on track after losing four of six to close 2014.  ''We're all reminded of last year,'' safety Tyrann Mathieu said. ''We don't want to have that relapse again. It's very important for us to stay focused, continue to find ways to win games.''

Arizona is 8-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cleveland Browns +10

The first time these teams played this season, the Bengals opened as 11-point home favorites. It was eventually bet up to 13 as everyone was on the Bengals. Now this line opened at Bengals -10, and it has since been bet down to 9.5. Considering there should be about a 6-point swing for home/away, the Bengals should have opened around a 5-point favorite in this game. Instead, I believe we are now getting value on the Browns here as 10-point home dogs.

This is a division rivalry game, so despite their 2-9 record, the Browns are going to show up. They would love to beat the top team in their division. I believe a big reason this line is so high is because Austin Davis is supposed to start. But Davis is better than he gets credit for, and Johnny Manziel has started the last two games against the Bengals, and he has been awful in both starts. Davis is only going to be an upgrade.

Davis replaced an injured Josh McCown against the Ravens when the Browns were down 27-20. He tied the game with 1:47 to play with a 42-yard touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin. Then, after an interception by the defense, Davis drove the Browns down to set them up for a potential game-winning field goal. Unfortunately, that kick was blocked and returned for a TD by the Ravens, but Davis did all he could to help the Browns win. He finished 7 of 10 for 77 yards and a touchdown. Remember, Davis played well for the Rams last season when forced into duty and even beat the Seahawks, so he has starting experience.

The betting public is quick to back the Bengals because they have the best ATS record (9-1-1) in the NFL. The public is quick to fade the Browns because they have going 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. This public perception has created an artificially inflated line here as oddsmakers are forced to set the number higher than it should be just to try and get some money on the Browns to offset the lopsided public action on the Bengals.

This is also a potential letdown spot for the Bengals, who know they can clinch the AFC North with a win over Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals won’t be motivated at all to face a Browns team that they’ve already beaten with that huge game against the Steelers on deck. Keep in mind that Cincinnati only led Cleveland 17-10 in the 4th quarter in their first meeting before tacking on two touchdowns in the final period.

It's also worth noting that Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert scored three touchdowns against the Browns in their first meeting.  Well, that's big because Eifert is listed as doubtful to play this week with a stinger, and he's a huge part of their offense.  In fact, he has a team-high 12 touchdown receptions on the season.  The rest of the Bengals' receivers have a combined 11 touchdown receptions.  His loss cannot be overstated.

Plays on underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) – poor rushing team (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1983.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings. The underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings as well. The Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cincinnati is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. excellent punt return teams who average 12 or more yards per return. Look out for Travis Benjamin in the return game in this one as he’s simply a game-changer.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Michigan State -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes had their best regular season in school history with a 12-0 season.  It came out of nowhere as the Hawkeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten West Division.  They deserve a lot of credit for running the table as they played very well all season and handled their business.  But their dream of making the four-team playoff will not come true as they finally face a real test in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa took advantage of a very week schedule this season.  It avoided the best four teams from the Big Ten East in Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.  It played in the Big Ten West, which was the worst division among the Power 5 conferences in my opinion.  They only beat one team that is currently ranked, which was Northwestern, which lost 38-0 to Michigan on the road.

In fact, the Hawkeyes' schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in 11 of its 12 games this season despite not having many expectations coming in.  The only game it was an underdog in, it won 10-6 at Wisconsin.  But the Hawkeyes should have never won that game.  They were outgained 221-320 by Wisconsin, or by 99 total yards.  The Badgers committed four turnovers, including one on the Iowa 1-yard line as they were going in for what would have been the game-winning score.  The Badgers are down this season anyways, so that's not as good of a win as it would have been in year's past for the Hawkeyes.

Heck, Nebraska was supposed to contend for a Big Ten West title, and it was down this season as well.  The Huskers finished just 5-7, but they arguably outplayed Iowa despite losing 20-28 last week.  Nebraska outgained Iowa 433-250 for the game, but again it committed four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown to gift-wrap the victory for the Hawks.  Are you seeing a trend here?  Iowa needs to create turnovers to win games.

But Michigan State isn't the type of team that's going to gift-wrap the game for Iowa.  The Spartans play sound football in all phases and take care of the ball.  In fact, they have committed just 11 turnovers in 12 games this season, which is obviously less than one per game.  For Iowa to have any chance, it is going to have to win the turnover battle, but I don't see that happening against Mark Dantonio's well-coached Spartans.

While Iowa played a cake schedule, Michigan State earned its trip to the Big Ten Championship by winning one of the best divisions in the country in the Big Ten East.  It played Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and beat all three.  It even beat both Ohio State and Michigan on the road, while thumping Penn State at home 55-16 last week.  Many will say that the Spartans were lucky to beat Michigan, but they outplayed the Wolverines in that game and outgained them by 156 yards, so I beg to differ.

Michigan State also played Oregon out of conference, which was a much tougher game than any non-conference game that Iowa played.  Iowa's toughest non-conference game came at home against Pittsburgh, and it needed a 57-yard field goal on the last play to beat the Panthers.  Michigan State played its best against its best opponents, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their season averages.  In Iowa's two biggest games, it was outgained by 183 yards by Nebraska and 99 yards by Wisconsin.

Yes, Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39-38 on the road, but only because of a questionable call at the end of the game.  Unlike Iowa, Michigan State actually did whatever it wanted to offensively against Nebraska, gaining 491 total yards behind 335 yards and four passing touchdowns from Connor Cook.

I simply trust Cook more than Iowa's C.J. Beathard here.  Cook is a senior quarterback who has been in numerous big games before, while Beathard is a first-year starter who hasn't been tested much with the game on the line.  That's because the Hawkeyes have never trailed in the 4th quarter of any game this season.  I believe the Hawkeyes will be trailing in the 4th quarter of this one, and Beathard won't have the goods to deliver because he hasn't been in that situation before, and he certainly hasn't played in as many big games as Cook.

This is a great matchup for the Spartans.  They boast an elite run defense that gives up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 193 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Stopping the run will be key because Iowa averages 42 rushing attempts and 204 yards per game, compared to 26 passing attempts and 201 yards per game.  Look for Michigan State to stop the running game and take Iowa out of its comfort zone, having to lean on Beathard more than they're used to in this one.

While Iowa has struggled down the stretch in winning three of its last four games by a touchdown or less, Michigan State has saved its best football for last, especially defensively.  The Spartans held Maryland to 7 points, 289 yards and forced five turnovers three weeks ago, then held Ohio State's high-powered attack to just 14 points and 152 total yards two weeks ago, then forced four more turnovers and held Penn State to 16 points last week.  I simply believe the Spartans are playing the better football coming into this one, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are finally near full strength health-wise for the first time all year.

These teams have four common opponents this season.  Michigan State is averaging 424.8 yards per game and giving up 369.5 yards per game against those four teams, outgaining them by 55.3 yards per game.  Iowa is averaging 349.3 yards per game and allowing 371.5 yards per game against those four teams, actually getting outgained by 22.2 yards per game.  Common opponents suggest that the Spartans are the better team as well.

Iowa's strength defensively is stopping the run as well, but that won't be as much of a factor in this game as it is against most teams.  That's because Michigan State is a primary passing team behind Cook.  The senior has been superb, throwing for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns against only four interceptions this season.  He should have a big day against an Iowa defense that has been susceptible against good passing offenses.  The Hawkeyes allowed 317 passing yards to Illinois, 301 to Minnesota, 268 to Purdue and 296 to Nebraska, and the latter three games have come over the past three weeks.

Michigan state is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three years.  Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Spartans.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4

Fading Clemson has been a very profitable move here down the stretch.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  I have faded Clemson in three of those games as they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 10-point win over Florida State, as 30-point favorites in a 10-point win at Syracuse, and as 29-point favorites in a 20-point home win over Wake Forest.

The Tigers were clearly overvalued down the stretch because they were the No. 1 team in the country.  But now I believe the price is right to back them as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina.  They have simply come too far to lose now, and this is the smallest favorites they've been since their win over Notre Dame.

But most importantly, I believe Clemson is actually the better team.  It is outgaining its ACC opponents by 272 yards per game behind an explosive offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 536.2 yards per game.  Its defense is only giving up 19.0 points and 264.7 yards per game in ACC play as well.

North Carolina had a great season, but it took advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in the country in the ACC Coastal and avoiding the top three teams from the Atlantic in Clemson, FSU and Louisville.  Yet, the Tar Heels only outgained their ACC opponents by 80 yards per game this season.  A lot has been made of UNC's improved defense, but it is still a below-average unit that actually allows 28 more yards per game than its opponents average on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, too.  These teams have five opponents in common.  Clemson is 5-0 against them outscoring them by 23.4 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 295 yards per game.  UNC is 4-1 against those same five teams, outscoring them by 17.6 points per game but outgaining them by only 74.2 yards per game.  Those numbers clearly indicate that the Tigers are by far the superior team.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Clemson is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game.  Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson.  Swinney is 12-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 or more points as the coach of the Tigers.  Clemson has won seven of the last nine meetings while totaling 109 points in the last two meetings.  The Tigers beat North Carolina 50-35 at home last year.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/T'Wolves OVER 203

Look for a high-scoring affair tonight between the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves.  It's almost always a shootout when these teams get together, and I don't expect anything different tonight.

The Blazers are coming off a 227-point effort at home against Dallas and a 234-point effort at home against Indiana.  What's amazing about those two performances is that neither team shot the ball that well, but they just played at such a frantic pace that they went well over the posted totals of 201 and 202.5, respectively.

What I also love about this play is the recent head-to-head history in the series.  The Blazers and Timberwolves have combined for 207, 207 and 234 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 216.0 combined points per game, which is 13 points more than this 203-point total.  Also, the OVER is 414-5-2 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.

Minnesota is is 10-0 to the OVER off a game with 15 or less assists over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 38-16-2 in Trail Blazers last 56 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Portland is 27-14 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today.  This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.

UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes.  It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out.  But the  numbers tell the story for me.  UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5.  That's the sign of a very good team.

Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass.  Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers.  It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.

The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game.  Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book.  All three are deadly from 3-point range.  Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%.   It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.

UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games.  The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5

Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season.  Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points.  The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.

The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit.  Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average.  Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.

Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking.  Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team.  The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8.  Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done.  If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.

The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Miss +7.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles may be the single-most underrated team in all of college football.  They went 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread for bettors who were willing to back them this season.  They also went 7-1 within the conference and won the C-USA West Title for the right to play in the conference championship game.

But the betting public still hasn't caught on to how good this team really is.  It's easy to see why considering Southern Miss went a combined 4-32 over the previous three seasons before this impressive 2015 campaign.  But the numbers don't lie, the Golden Eagles are the best team in Conference USA and should not be an underdog to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the championship game.

Common opponents are my favorite way to compare teams.  Southern Miss and WKU had five common opponents this season.  Southern Miss outscored those five opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game and outgained them by an average of 248.2 yards per game.  Western Kentucky outscored those five opponents by 23.0 points per game and outgained them by 179.6 yards per game.  That right there shows that the Golden Eagles are the better team in my book.

Southern Miss has only gotten better as the season has gone on, too.  It has won each of its last six games all by 21 points or more.  The one game that really stands out to me was last week against Louisiana Tech with the C-USA West title on the line.  Southern Miss went on the road and beat the Bulldogs 58-24 as 5-point underdogs.  They Golden Eagles racked up 555 total yards and outgained the Bulldogs by 150 for the game.

Louisiana Tech is a common opponent between these teams, and the best team from Conference USA that either faced all season.  Western Kentucky faced LA Tech at home, yet only won 41-38 as 2.5-point underdogs.  The Hilltoppers allowed 580 total yards to Louisiana Tech in that game and were fortunate to win.

I really like the balance of this Southern Miss offense, too.  It is averaging 195 rushing yards per gam eand 5.3 per carry, while also putting up 340 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt.  That's an average of 535 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are vastly improved on defense, too, giving up 22.4 points per game, 351.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  Western Kentucky is a worse defensive team, allowing 25.0 points, 393 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Southern Miss is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over its last three games.  The Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 70

The Northern Illinois Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback now in true freshman Tommy Fiedler.  He played late in the second half against Ohio last week after Ryan Graham went down with a leg injury in the third quarter.  Graham had taken the place of Drew Hare before him.

It's safe to say that this Northern Illinois offense is only a shell of what it was with Hare at quarterback.  Graham played admirably, but he's no Hare.  And Fiedler is worse than Graham.  Fiedler actually came to Northern Illinois as a fifth-string quarterback, but Antony Maddie and fellow freshman Daniel Santacaterina also are dealing with injuries.

"We feel good where Tommy's at," NIU head coach Rod Carey said. "If we could have everybody healthy would we choose Tommy? Probably not. But Tommy is ready for it and he's excited about it."

The good news is that NIU is a primary running team anyways, averaging 48 rushing attempts and 213 yards per game.  Look for the NIU offense to take its time, run the football, and try and shorten this game as much as possible.  It knows that it stands no chance against Bowling Green's high-powered offense in a shootout.  That strategy for the Huskies is going to help aid this under.

Northern Illinois can rely on a defense that gives up 24.8 points, 392 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that average 26.8 points, 395 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, the Huskies have an above-average defense as they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season.

Bowling Green is actually an above-average defensive team that doesn't get much credit on that side of the ball.  It is allowing 5.4 yards per play against opponents that average 5.5 per play on offense.  The Falcons have been much better defensively of late, giving up 27 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 10 or fewer in three of those.

What really stands out to me is the head-to-head history in this series.  The Falcons and Huskies have combined for 68 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, which is a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 70 points.  They have combined to average 50.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than this 70-point total as well.

Bowling Green is 6-0 to the UNDER against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Falcons are 12-2 to the UNDER after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd returned four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule.  They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games.  They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison.  They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game.  The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.

Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas.  But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night.  That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system.  That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.

Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings.  It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs.  So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips.  I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.

Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game.  Take Marshall Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1

The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12.  They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.

But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land.  They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again.  Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.

I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start.  Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points.  The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2).  I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.

The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%.  Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.

USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Roll with USC Thursday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay -3

The advanced line on this game last Tuesday was Packers -6. But with the Packers losing to the Bears last week and the Lions crushing the Eagles, this line has been bet all the way down to Packers -3. There is a lot of action on the Lions coming into this one, and I believe it’s an overreaction to last week’s results. The value is now with the Packers laying only a field goal here.

Green Bay has lost four of its last five games overall to fall out of first place in the NFC North. It now trails Minnesota by one game and needs a win this week to get back on track. When you look at the recent losses to the Lions and Bears, it’s clear that the Packers outplayed both teams and should have won. They outgained the Lions 372-287 for the game, or by 85 total yards, in a 16-18 loss. They also outgained the Bears 365-290, or by 75 total yards, in a 13-17 loss.

As you can see, the Packers are dominating defensively of late. They have held their last three opponents to an average of 16.0 points and 306.0 yards per game. Now, it’s up to Aaron Rodgers and offense to hold up their end of the bargain. I believe they will in perfect conditions this week inside Ford Field. It’s not like the Lions are all of a sudden an elite defensive team as they still allow 26.2 points per game this year.

Rodgers called out his teammates on offense for not studying the playbook enough. You can bet that after losing the way they did to the Bears with Brett Favre’s jersey getting retired, and Bart Starr being in attendance, that loss did not sit well with these players. Look for a much more focused, prepared and determined Packers team to hit the field Thursday night. That’s especially the case now that they trail the Vikings in the division, and the fact that they want revenge on the Lions.

Detroit is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games vs. teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. The Packers are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Green Bay is 59-36 ATS in its last 95 December games. The Lions are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after having won three of their last four games coming in. The Packers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 vs. NFC North opponents. The Lions are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5

BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament.  That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.

The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State.  Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures.  Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball.  Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.

Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here.  Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less.  The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.

Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post.  They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33.  The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game.  The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with BYU Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here.  Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch.  But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.

Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year.  James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country.  Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.

Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress.  The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky.  They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites.  But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.

Indiana can score with anyone.  It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season.  Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad.  Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here.  Bet Indiana Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 196.5

I believe the books have set the bar too low in this matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks tonight.  Look for a high-scoring affair with both teams topping 100 points in this one as it sails well OVER the posted total of 196.5.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.  The Hawks rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are right behind them in 7th at 103.0 points per 100 possessions.

Recent meetings tell the story for me.  The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 199 or more points in three of their last four meetings, all of which occurred last season.  The only exception was a 185-point effort last year in which the Hawks shot a season-low 33.0% from the floor, including 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range.  They still combined to average 209.0 combined points per game in their four meetings last year even with that 185-point effort.

Toronto is 11-1 to the OVER in road games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta.  Toronto is 60-31 to the OVER in its last 91 road games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08.  They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.

While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games.  It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.

All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.

Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio.  It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game.  Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State.  I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5

Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year.  This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.

Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16.  Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.

William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points.  The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive.  But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs.  That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.

Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State.  But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76).  The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road.  The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.

William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three  seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take William & Mary Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out.  It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done.  They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season.  I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.

Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites.  Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.

Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Jazz Monday.

20* Ravens/Browns ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5

Just about every factor heading into this game favors the Browns laying 2.5 points against the Ravens. I cannot think of one good reason to back the Ravens in this one at this current price. I fully expect the Browns to win this game by at least a field goal, and likely more given everything that’s working in their favor.

For starters, Baltimore is going to be without its three best players on offense. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a torn ACL against the Rams last week and is out for the season. Leading rusher Justin Forsett broke his arm against the Rams and is also out for the year. Leading receiver Steve Smith suffered a torn Achilles a few weeks back and is done for the season as well. It’s just too hard to overcome these types of injuries when you’re already not that good.

Secondly, the Browns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Ravens. That should help them regroup and refocus after losing five straight games coming into this one. There’s no question that this team is undervalued right now due to failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. But they’ve faced a very difficult schedule during this stretch with three road games at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and St. Louis, as well as a home meeting with Arizona. They finally can catch their breath here against a much lesser opponent in the Ravens.

Third, it was a blessing in disguise for Johnny Manziel to be out partying last weekend. He has now been demoted as the starter, and in his place will be Josh McCown, who is now healthy after the bye week. This offense has been so much better with McCown under center. He is completing 65.0 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.

McCown had a monster day in a 33-30 road win over Baltimore back on October 11 in their first meeting of the season. This game wasn’t as close as the final score as the Browns outgained the Ravens 505-377, or by 128 total yards. McCown threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He should be able to find more success this week against this struggling Baltimore defense.

The Ravens are 1-7-2 ATS in all games this season. Baltimore is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. losing teams. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ravens.  Bet the Browns Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential.  They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury.  They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.

Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.  They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons.  They have had two days off in between games.  The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.

The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one.  They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards.  Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.

The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle.  They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20

Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result.  This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.

The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener.  They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss.  Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.

Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking.  The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS.  Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech.  They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21.  Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.

"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said.  "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."

Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Illinois State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2

The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament.  I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.

Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop.  I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort.  The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.

Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more.  That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.

Dayton is without its top two players from last year.  Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely.  This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.

Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years.  Roll with Xavier Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now.  That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense.  But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.

Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday.  Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.

Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday.  The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run.  I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season.  These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.

Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons have lost three straight and desperately need a win to get back on track as they are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the NFC.  I look for them to put forth their most inspired effort of the season Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings.  In fact, this is my favorite play of the entire 2015 season, which is why it has earned the 25* GAME OF THE YEAR title.

Atlanta's last three losses have all come by three points or less and by a combined seven points.  They have beaten themselves by committing eight turnovers, most of which are on Matt Ryan's shoulders.  But this guy takes care of the football, and I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything.

The numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  Indeed, they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 63.8 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Patriots and Seahawks have been better, and teams like the Broncos (5th), Panthers (6th) and Bengals (7th) are right below them, so it's safe to say that they are in elite company with this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Falcons still boast an elite offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 399.5 yards per game.  But it's the improvement they've made defensively under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn that had made the biggest difference.  The Falcons rank a very respectable 11th in the NFL in total defense at 335.7 yards per game, which is only one spot behind the 10th-place Vikings (334.9 YPG).

Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  It is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and the betting public has taken notice.  Heck, the Vikings were even favored over the Packers last week as the oddsmakers over-adjusted.  The Packers won that game 30-13, and now the Vikings are in a serious hangover spot here from that defeat.  But somehow they are nearly favored against the Falcons here, and this -1/+1 line indicates the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field.  Atlanta is the better team, so the oddsmakers have that wrong.

Minnesota actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by 4.9 yards per game on the season.  That's right, the Vikings have somehow managed to go 7-3 despite getting outgained on the year.  They are clearly frauds, and their 29th-ranked offense (330.0 yards/game) leaves a lot to be desired.

Teddy Bridgewater has an 8-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season and is pretty much a liability.  The Vikings rely mostly on the run to move the football, which makes this an excellent matchup for the Falcons.  Indeed, the Falcons rank 1st in the league against the run, giving up just 87.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  This couldn't possibly a worse matchup for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

Because they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now, either.  Now all they have to do is win the game at home to cover the number because there are essentially no points involved.  This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, so do not be shy with your wagers.  It's also worth noting that the home team has won four of the last five meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition.  First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.

The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders  offensively.  They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range.  They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country.  Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.

Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season.  It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home.  That gives these teams a couple common opponents.

Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points.  Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points.  Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread.  The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year.  They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers.  They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.

The Wizards are scuffling right now.  They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday.  They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense.  It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.

The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs.  I like their chances given the situation.  Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.  I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Saturday

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach.  At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.

Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season.  Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play.  So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.

Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play.  The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play.  But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.

Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion.  It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers.  But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week.  The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.

That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here.  They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it.  The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game.  The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.

Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country.  They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks.  They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35.  They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.

Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads.  But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones.  These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year.  But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.

The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests.  They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns.  This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers.  Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.

Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents.  All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013.  Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24.  No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.

West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year.  Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.

The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs.  Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.

Both teams have played the same five opponents this season.  Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game.  Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game.  This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.

Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51

The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high.  It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together.  The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth.  Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here.  The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.

Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia.  The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings.  They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.

The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense.  They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again.  The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER.  The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points.  The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.

VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5

The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year.  They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible.  They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs.  They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.

I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season.  This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around.  It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.

Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game.  Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half.  They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well.  This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.

Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Those two wins are far from impressive.  Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses.  It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 196.5

The books have been forced to set this total lower than it should be because the Spurs come in having gone under the total in four straight games.  That has provided us with some excellent line value to swoop in and back the over as the Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuuggets are a high-scoring, fast-paced team that plays little defense.  They have scored 103 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall, and they have allowed at least 98 points in 10 straight games, including 109 or more in each of their last four.  What I love about this over is that the Nuggets will control the tempo because they're playing at home.

I also love the head-to-head stats between these teams that shows this total is too low.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Nuggets and Spurs combining for 207, 216, 231 & 208 points.  That's an average of 215.5 combined points per game, which is 19 points more than this 196.5-point total.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks.  They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.

Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington.  C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points.  It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.

Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games.  The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland.  The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.  The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.

Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago.  That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets.  The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season.  But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that.  The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games.  They are 1-3 on the road this season.

I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday.  I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.

New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer.  Take the Knicks Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7

You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State.  The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go.  I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.

Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now.  I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.

Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week.  It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago.  The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have.  They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State.  They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.

This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning.  The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests.  They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.

Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback.  But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.

Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado.  He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week.  He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.

The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere.  Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.

The difference in this game is going to be defense.  The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.

Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more.  The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington Friday.