Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +11

The Washington Wizards could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Oddsmakers have now made the Wizards a double-digit favorite for just the second time all season.  The first was a non-cover in a 2-point win over Chicago as 11.5-point favorites.

And now the Wizards have to go up against a pesky Los Angeles Lakers team that will be champing at the bit to pull off the upset and end Washington's home winning streak.  The Lakers will be fresh and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 7 days.

And the Lakers just got some reinforcements as PG De'Angelo Russell just returned to the lineup from injury.  The Lakers promptly took down the Nuggets 120-116 at home to cover as 1-point favorites.  This will be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has shown as the Lakers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 107-64 (62.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Washington.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri +22

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after back-to-back blowout victories.  The Gators thumped LSU 106-71 and Oklahoma 84-52 on the road.  That followed up an ugly 66-68 home loss to Vanderbilt.

In fact, the Gators haven't fared well at home at all this season in conference play.  They are 1-3 ATS in conference home games with their only cover coming by a half-point in a 13-point win over Tennessee as 12.5-point favorites.  They only beat Ole Miss by 7 as 13-point favorites, Georgia by 4 as 12-point favorites, and lost to Vanderbilt by 2 as 11.5-point favorites.

The Gators are also in a serious look-ahead spot here and won't be able to give Missouri the kind of attention it's going to take to cover this massive 22-point spread.  They have Kentucky at home on deck Saturday, and they won't be able to help but look ahead to that huge contest against the favorite to win the SEC.

Missouri is 9-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  Florida is 6-15 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three years.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  Take Missouri Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  This despite the fact that they've gone 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Now they are catching 6.5 points in Dallas tonight, which is simply too much.

The Mavericks are now getting a ton of respect from the books after back-to-back upset victories over the Spurs and Cavs.  They caught the Cavs on the 2nd of a back-to-back and took advantage.  But after playing and beating two of the best teams in the NBA, it's only human nature for them to have a big letdown here.

The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

The Miami Heat are feeling very good about themselves right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall, playing their best basketball of the season.  They will come into this game against Atlanta with a ton of confidence as a result.

Atlanta isn't exactly playing well enough right now to be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Hawks are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a four-OT home win over the Knicks by 3, and their other win was a 5-point victory at Chicago in which they erased a double-digit deficit late.  They were upset at home by the Clippers by 10 as 7-point favorites, and they were throttled by the Wizards by 26 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Heat are 33-10 SU & 28-14-1 ATS in their last 43 home meetings with the Hawks.  They will be out for revenge following two losses to the Hawks already this season by 3 and 8 points.  I look for them to get their revenge in this third meeting of the season tonight.

Atlanta is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after allowing 120 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS off a home win this season.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing great value as 3.5-point home favorites over the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight.  The Razorbacks are undervalued off their blowout loss at Oklahoma State over the weekend, while Alabama is getting too much respect off its 9-point home win over Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  Arkansas has won 13 of its last 17 home meetings with Alabama.

Arkansas is 50-29 ATS in its last 79 home games off a road loss.  The Razorbacks are 15-4 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games as a dog of 6 points or less.  The Crimson Tide are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.  Alabama is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a straight up win.  Take Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State PK

The NC State Wolfpack beat Duke 84-82 on the road.  Then they had a letdown in a 60-85 road loss to Louisville, and that blowout defeat has them undervalued coming into this home game against Syracuse tonight.

The Wolfpack are 11-2 at home this season.  The Orange haven't won a road game all season, going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in all games played away from home.  They are getting outscored by 13.3 points per game in these road contests this season.

I think the Orange come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers at home over Wake Forest and Florida State.  But they haven't even been competitive in their four ACC road games, losing by 15 at Boston College, by 10 at VA Tech, by 17 at North Carolina and by 18 at Notre Dame.

The Orange are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Syracuse is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  NC State is 24-10-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 211

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be a dead nut UNDER team moving forward.  I capitalized with the UNDER in their game against Cleveland on Sunday and took the UNDER 220 in a game that saw 196 combined points.  I'll back the UNDER 211 here against the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday as well.

The reason the Thunder are an UNDER team now is because Enes Kanter was just lost for over a month with a broken arm.  Kanter averages 14.4 points per game and is a key contributor on offense, but a liability on defense.  In their first game without him, the Thunder only managed 91 points against the Cavs.

Now they face a pissed-off Spurs team tonight that has lost two straight coming in due to poor defense.  In fact, the Spurs have allowed 105 or more points in three straight games.  You can bet that Greg Popovich has emphasized defense leading up to this game against the Thunder, and the Spurs should come up with a much better showing on that side of the court tonight.

Just looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 208 or fewer points in seven of those nine meetings.  They have averaged 199.3 combined points during this stretch, which is nearly 12 points less than this posted total of 211.

Oklahoma City is 12-0 UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season.  The Thunder are 8-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The UNDER is 23-9 in Thunder's last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -6.5

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Georgetown as 8.5-point favorites on Saturday.  And if that's not enough, the Bulldogs will also be out for revenge from a 64-75 loss at Creighton earlier this season in their first meeting.

But this isn't the same Creighton team they saw in that meeting.  The Bluejays are now without their best player in Mo Watson Jr. who accounted for nearly 38% of their offense between his points and assists at the time of his injury.  It's safe to say the Bluejays haven't been the same without him.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 1-2 in their three games since Watson went down.  They were upset at home by Marquette 94-102 as 6-point favorites.  They lost 51-71 at Georgetown as 1.5-point favorites.  Then they did beat Depaul 83-66 as 16-point home favorites on Saturday, but the Blue Demons are the worst team in the Big East.

That home loss to Georgetown was a rare one for the Bulldogs, who are 11-1 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season.  Butler beat Creighton 88-75 at home last season as 5.5-point favorites.  This is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Butler is 7-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these games by 16.7 points per game on average.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Butler is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -2.5

The Ball State Cardinals are one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall, yet they aren't getting the kind of respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Three of those five wins came by double-digits with their only loss coming at Bowling Green by 5 points.

Toledo is just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  There have been some ugly performances along the way.  They lost by 16 at Western Michigan as 4.5-point favorites, by 8 at Central Michigan as 2.5-point favorites and by 24 at Kent State as a pick 'em in three of their four road games during this stretch.

Ball State is 8-3 at home this season, while Toledo is just 2-6 in true road games this year.  Ball State is 13-6 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Toledo.  The Cardinals beat the Rockets 87-69 as 2-point home underdogs last season.

Toledo is 0-6 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Toledo is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road meetings with the Cardinals.  Take Ball State Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing tremendous value Monday as 8.5-point road underdogs to the Miami Heat.  I like this spot for the Nets, who have lost five straight coming in and are getting absolutely zero respect from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers right now.

Conversely, the Miami Heat are getting massive respect here because they have gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It has been by far the best stretch of the season for the Heat, who are still just 18-30 on the year.

I also like this spot for the Nets because they'll be out for revenge from a 106-109 home loss to the Heat on January 25th just six days ago.  The Nets blew an 18-point lead heading into the 4th quarter in that game and have not forgotten.  They will look to even the score tonight.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* Duke/Notre Dame ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +1.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against the Duke Blue Devils.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in to drop to 17-5 on the season.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.

After all, the Fighting Irish seem to get up for the Blue Devils every time they get the opportunity to face them.  And surprisingly, they have had a ton of success in this series here of late.  The Fighting Irish have won three straight and five of the last six meetings.

The Blue Devils are not playing well at all here of late as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, consistently being overvalued.  They were fortunate to escape with an 85-83 win at Wake Forest over the weekend after getting upset 82-84 at home by NC State as 16.5-point favorites.

Notre Dame is 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Duke is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Notre Dame Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +24.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are primed for a letdown here against the South Florida Bulls, which will make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 24.5-point spread today.  We'll gladly fade them and take all the points we can get here.

Cincinnati put a lot into its 86-78 home win over Xavier on Thursday.  The Bearcats had lost their three previous meetings with the Musketeers, who are their biggest rivals.  They really wanted that game against their crosstown rivals, and they had a huge second half to get it.  Now they'll fall flat here just a few days later.

No question South Florida is not very good at 6-13 this season, but it hasn't been losing by these kinds of margins this season.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost a game by more than 22 points this year.  That fact alone shows that there is value in this 24.5-point spread.

USF is 7-0 ATS in road games off two consecutive losses by 10 or more to conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two years.  USF is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Bulls.  Take South Florida Sunday.

15* Thunder/Cavs ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

The Oklahoma City Thunder just lost Enes Kanter to a broken arm.  He is third on the team in scoring at 14.4 points per game, but usually a defensive liability.  The Thunder are going to miss his offense, but they will be a better defensive team without him as it means more minutes for the offensively-challenged Domantas Sabonis.

When looking at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma City and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated Sunday.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The Thunder and Cavs have combined for 218 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.

In fact, they have averaged just 204.8 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 220.  The UNDER is 38-16 in Thunder's last 54 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 78-34-3 in Cavaliers last 115 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -2

Expect a big effort Sunday from the Michigan State Spartans, who are highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses coming in.  They have had four days off since last playing on Tuesday and will be ready to go tonight.

The Michigan Wolverines are getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.  They are coming off a 30-point home win over a depleted Indiana team on Thursday, giving them just two days off to get ready for the Spartans.  They're at a big disadvantage here in rest, preparation and motivation when compared to Michigan State.

The Spartans have won 14 of their last 16 home meetings with the Wolverines.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.

The Wolverines are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan State is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns -2

This is a classic home-and-home situation.  The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets just played on Thursday.  The Nuggets overcame a 4-point halftime deficit to beat the Suns 127-120 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now, these teams head to Phoenix for the rematch just two days later.

I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these home-and-home situations.  I think the Suns will clearly be the team with more fight tonight as they try an avenge that defeat.  Plus, they are only 2-point favorites here, so this is a great price as they basically just have to win the game to cover.

The Nuggets are going to be without two starters for Saturday's rematch as well.  Emmanuel Mudiay has missed the past four games and remains out.  But Nikola Jokic suffered a hip injury against the Suns and isn't even traveling with the team.  He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA as he averages 15.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.0 APG.  His loss is huge for the Nuggets.

The Suns are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The home team is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  The favorite is 36-15-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Suns Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been a hard-luck team here of late.  They have lost four in a row with the last three coming by 2, 2 and 6 points.  Three of those four came on the road, too.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday to get back on track, especially with a ranked team in Maryland coming to town.

The Gophers have been a great home team, going 12-2 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Their two home losses both came in overtime to Michigan State (74-75) and Wisconsin (76-78).  That's how close they are to being 14-0 at home this year.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.  Oddsmakers tend to agree here in setting the Gophers as 4-point favorites despite the fact that the Terrapins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I think their luck runs out here Saturday.

Minnesota beat Maryland 68-63 as 10-point home underdogs last season.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +7.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  After upsetting Creighton 102-94 on the road, the Golden Eagles came back home and upset No. 1 Villanova 74-72 on Tuesday.  They erased a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the Wildcats.

The crowd stormed the floor after the win, and the players were seen standing on the scoring table and dancing.  It was a monumental win for the program, and now it's simply human nature that they won't be able to come back with a very good effort here Saturday against Providence.

Adding to the value is the fact that Providence was upset 86-91 at home by St. John's on Wednesday as 7-point favorites.  But that was a rare bad effort of late for the Friars.  They were 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with only a 10-point loss at 16-point dogs at Villanova, an 18-point win as 6.5-point dogs at Georgetown and a 4-point home win over Seton Hall as 1.5-point dogs.

Providence is also going to be out for revenge in this game after losing both meetings last year in heartbreaking fashion.  Marquette won 96-91 in overtime at home and 65-64 on the road in the two meetings.  I think there's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Friars pull off the upset given the situation.

The Friars are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Golden Eagles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas State +1

The Tennessee Vols are in a prime letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 82-80 victory as 10.5-point home dogs over the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday.  There's no question they won't be able to come back with a very good effort after that huge victory.

Tennessee hasn't exactly protected its home court very well at all coming into that game.  The Vols actually lost three straight home games to Gonzaga, Arkansas and South Carolina with two of those coming by double-digits before winning their last two home games against Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Kansas State is 15-5 this season and coming off a painful 65-70 loss at Iowa State on Tuesday in which it came way back and took the lead, only to fail to close it out in the final few minutes.  The Wildcats' five losses this season have come at Maryland (by 1), at Kansas (by 2),  at Texas Tech (by 1), vs Baylor (by 9) and at Iowa State (by 5).  They are clearly battle-tested and could be even better than 15-5 had they been able to pull out a few of those close games.

The Volunteers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +15.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 85-69 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday.  Now they'll have a hard time getting up to play the Texas A&M Aggies here as they step out of conference.

Texas A&M has played a ton of close games here of late.  Each of their last six games were decided by 11 points or fewer outside of a 92-62 beat down of LSU at home.  Their last three games were all decided by 4 points or fewer.  I think this one will come right down to the wire as well.

It's not like West Virginia is deserving of being this big of a favorite with the way it was playing coming into the Kansas game.  The Mountaineers were upset at Kansas State and at home against Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites. They only beat Texas by 2 as 11-point favorites, and were upset at Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  West Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.  The Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory here at home tonight.  They are a solid 12-11 at home this season and should get back in the win column at a great price as 1-point home underdogs to the Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets have no business being road favorites with the way they've been playing lately.  They are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a terrible spot for the Hornets.  They are coming off a home loss to the Warriors, and it will be hard for them to get up to play the Knicks now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings.  The home team has also won 10 of the last 12 meetings dating back further.

Charlotte is 1-9 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  New York is 15-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Cavs UNDER 226.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have dropped six of their last eight games overall.  I don't think there's value backing them as 15-point favorites here, but I do see a ton of value in the UNDER.

The reason for the Cavs' struggles lately has been defense as they have allowed at least 100 points in 11 straight games.  I think their motivation will shine through on that end of the court more than anything moving forward as they know that defense has cost them.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams already this season.  They combined for 218 and 224 points in their first two meetings, staying UNDER this 226.5-point total both times.  And I think that will be the case for a 3rd straight meeting here.

The Cavs and Nets have combined for 224 or fewer points in 17 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 226.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Sacramento Kings are in a prime letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a huge overtime road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  I don't expect them to show up at all here tonight against the Indiana Pacers off such a big win.

This is also a tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing their 5th straight road game in a span of 8 days.  I look for them to start wearing down here soon, and it starts with this game tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I realize the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 109-103 win in Minnesota last night.  However, they had two days off prior to that game, so they will be fresher than most teams in a back-to-back situation.

Plays against any team (SACRAMENTO) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -3.5

The Michigan Wolverines are 11-2 at home this season.  I really like them laying this short price to the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night as I expect a big effort out of them.  They are still looking for a signature win in conference play, and this would be it.

Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in all games away from home this year.  They are 1-2 straight up in true road games with their only victory coming 78-75 at Penn State as 3-point favorites.  This is a team that lost earlier this season on the road to Fort Wayne.

Indiana is 3-11 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 2-13 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 50-28 ATS in their last 78 January home games.  The Hoosiers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.  The Wolverines are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 Thursday games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* Mavs/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Mavericks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this will be the first time they'll have a chance to avenge their playoff series loss to the Thunder in the opening round last year.  And while the Mavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, they had two days off prior to their home win over the Knicks on Wednesday.

The Thunder don't have the same luxury.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Not only that, but this is an awful spot for the Thunder as it will be their first game back home from a 6-game road trip.  Plus, they have a huge game against the defending champion Cavaliers on deck and could be looking ahead.

The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Dallas is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 trips to Oklahoma City.  The road team si 39-17-2 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rice -3

The Rice Owls are 8-3 at home this season.  Two of their home losses came against two of the best teams in Conference USA in UAB and Middle Tennessee.  I think they'll handle Old Dominion at home here tonight.

Old Dominion is not playing well coming in, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. yet it continues getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  The Monarchs barely beat lowly Southern Miss by 4 at home as 13-point favorites, lost at home to LA Tech by 12 as 1-point favorites, and lost at Charlotte 72-74 as 2.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion has some injury and suspension issues right now.  Brandan Stith (11.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg), who leads the team in rebounding and blocks, missed the last game with an ankle injury.  He is expected to return for this game, though he won't be near 100%.  Also, Jordan Baker (7.6 ppg), who leads the team with 24 steals, has been suspended for this game.

Plays against any team (OLD DOMINION) - a horrible offensive team (63 PPG or less) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is also a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 56-62 at Old Dominion in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +16

The Boston College Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the ACC.  All they do is cover, yet they get no respect from oddsmakers.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall while playing some very good teams tough along the way.

That includes upset home wins over Providence (79-67) as 10-point dogs, Syracuse (96-81) as 10.5-point dogs and NC State (74-66) as 5.5-point dogs.  The Eagles have also covered in road losses to Wake Forest (66-79) as 15-point dogs and Duke (82-93) as 26-point dogs.  Then last time out they only lost at home to UNC (82-90) as 19-point dogs.

Miami has been one of the most overrated teams in the ACC.  The Hurricanes are just 4-12 ATS in their 16 lined games this season.  They are coming off a 58-70 road loss at Duke as 10-point dogs and will certainly have a hard time getting up to play Boston College after playing one of the best teams in the country.

The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston College is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hurricanes are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4

This is a great spot to fade the Miami Heat, who are primed for a letdown here tonight.  The Heat won four straight home games coming in, including their 105-102 upset of Golden State on Monday as 11-point dogs.  Off their biggest win of the season, they will now fail to show up at all in Brooklyn tonight.

The betting public is all over the Heat in this game, yet this line has dropped.  That's an indication that the big money is on the Nets, and I believe it is warranted given the awful spot for the Heat here.  After all, Miami is just 6-17 straight up in road games this season and should not be favored on the road against anyone.

Plays on underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Miami is 1-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on La Salle -8.5

Look for an inspired effort tonight from the La Salle Explorers off their worst loss of the season, a 52-90 road loss to VCU.  That poor showing came out of nowhere because they had been playing their best basketball of the season coming into that contest.

Indeed, La Salle was 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five games.  The Explorers had beaten Saint Louis by 21, Duquesne by 7, George Washington by 10 and Davidson by 8 at home.  They had also gone on the road and upset Rhode Island by 12 as 12-point dogs.

Pennsylvania is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or more.  They lost by 9 at Princeton as 8.5-point dogs, by 8 at home to Yale as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to Brown as 9.5-point favorites, and by 7 to St. Joe's on a neutral court as 2.5-point dogs.

La Salle has won eight of its last nine meetings with Pennsylvania with each of the last four victories coming by double-digits.  The Explorers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Quakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Explorers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their last game by 20-plus points at the half.  Take La Salle Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This schedule appeared to catch up with them last night as they fell at home to the Thunder 95-97 as 5-point favorites.

Now they must go to the altitude to take on the red-hot Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have really started to click offensively, averaging 121.2 points per game in their last six contests overall.

The home team has won three straight and seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Denver is 13-3 ATS off a loss to a division rival this year.  Utah is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Kansas/WVU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated to get a win at home tonight against the Kansas Jayhawks on National TV.  Look for a big effort from them, especially after those consecutive losses.

The Jayhawks have played a very weak schedule thus far in Big 12 play, avoiding both Baylor and WVU to this point.  The only three road games in conference play the Jayhawks have faced were a 6-point win at TCU, an 11-point win at Oklahoma and a 4-point win at Iowa State.  They will suffer their first loss of conference season here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 straight up in the last seven meetings.  West Virginia has won each of its last three home meetings with the Jayhawks, including a 74-63 victory as 1-point dogs last year.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in Tuesday home games over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 2-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing each of their last two games in narrow fashion on the road to Ohio State by 5 and Indiana by 7.  Look for a big effort from Sparty tonight at home to try and get back in the win dolumn.

The Spartans have certainly been taking care of business at home in conference play.  They beat Northwestern by 9 as 2.5-point favorites, Rutgers by 28 as 13-point favorites and Minnesota by 18 as 3.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first three Big Ten home games by a combined 36 points.

Purdue hasn't exactly played great in its first two Big Ten road games.  It only won 76-75 at Ohio State as 3-point favorites, then was upset 78-83 at lowly Iowa as 6-point favorites.  Michigan State has won 12 of its last 15 home meetings with Purdue.

The Spartans have owned this series, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The only loss came last season 81-82 in overtime at Purdue.  The Spartans are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. points.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns are playing very well of late and continue flying under the radar.  It hasn't shown up in the win-loss column, but the fact that they are being competitive against the best teams in the Big 12 shows what they are capable of.

The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, beat Oklahoma State 82-79 as 1-point home dogs, only lost by 9 as 9.5-point dogs at Iowa State, only lost by 3 at home to TCU and by 1 at home to West Virginia as 11.5-point dogs, and covered in a 10-point loss at Baylor as 14-point dogs and in a 12-point loss at Kansas as 16-point dogs.

Oklahoma is also playing better right now, but I don't like this spot for the Sooners.  They played a double-overtime game on Saturday against Iowa State and lost 87-92 at home.  Now they must play just two days later and will certainly still be feeling the effects of that grueling defeat.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Sooners are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Texas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Sooners are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 road meetings.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in while failing to cover the spread in all five games, which has them undervalued right now.  But four of those five losses came on the road.

One of those losses came at Houston on January 18th just six days ago.  That places the Bucks in revenge mode tonight, only adding to their motivation.  Look for them to play one of their better games of the season, especially after recently holding a team meeting to address their issues.

I don't expect the Grizzlies to be all that motivated here.  They are coming off back-to-back games against Golden State and Memphis, and after having beaten Milwaukee just six days ago, they won't be fully locked in.  The Rockets will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, so they are a tired team.

Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 24-13 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Milwaukee is 82-47 ATS in its last 129 games off four or more consecutive losses.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5

The Charlotte Hornets have won three straight games coming in.  All three wins came at home with a 22-point win over Portland, a 35-point win over Toronto and a 7-point win over Brooklyn.  They are now 15-7 at home this season.

The Washington Wizards are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the Wizards are just 5-14 SU & 8-11 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up 108.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting away from home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Denver Nuggets are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Making matters worse is the fact that they'll be without two starters in Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris.

I think the Nuggets are starting to get a little too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the four wins came against the Pacers, Magic, Lakers and Clippers, who were without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin last night.

The Timberwolves are starting to play up to their potential, but they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are laying a short number here despite the fact that they come in on two days' rest and in a much better situation than the Nuggets.

The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Minnesota is 11-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the second half of the season over the last two years.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Steelers/Patriots AFC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +6

The Steelers have made me a lot of money down the stretch as they’ve consistently been undervalued, and I’m not about to buck them now. I think they are once again showing great value in the AFC Championship Game as 6-point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Pittsburgh has now gone 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Not only have the Steelers been winning on the scoreboard, they’ve been dominating the box scores as well, which is the sign of a legitimate team. They have actually outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents which dates back to their 16-27 loss to the Patriots. The only exception was against Cleveland in Week 17 where they rested their starters with nothing to play for.

And that loss to the Patriots was much closer than the final score. The Steelers outgained them 375 to 362 for the game. Keep in mind that the Steelers were playing without Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and having him back healthy is going to make all the difference in the rematch, as we’ve seen down the stretch during this nine-game winning streak.  The Patriots also had Rob Gronkowski in that game.

I think the Patriots are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is having a quality season, but he was not sharp at all against the Texans as he went 18-of-38 passing and threw two interceptions. The problem was that the Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and couldn’t take advantage. The Patriots won’t have that luxury this week.

One of the most common stats out there is that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense. Well, that stat is fraudulent. That’s because the Patriots faced the league’s 32nd-ranked slate of offenses in the NFL this season. They played terrible offenses all season, and didn’t have to face the Steelers with Roethlisberger when they played them. 

The only good quarterback they've faced down the stretch is Russell Wilson, and the Patriots lost to the Seahawks at home while giving up 31 points.  Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns in that game.  Roethlisberger only ranks 11th in QB rating this season, but he's actually the highest-rated passer that the Patriots will have played against all season!

Now the Patriots will be up against a Pittsburgh offense that has put up 24 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The lone exception was the 18-16 win at Kansas City last week.  But the Steelers should have scored more as they racked up 389 total yards but were held to six field goals.  They outgained the Chiefs by 162 yards in that contest and clearly should have won by more.  But the fact that the final score was close I think is also keeping the Steelers undervalued here.

One of the most underrated stats about the Steelers has been their defense, which has been dominant in the second half of the season. They have given up just 16.6 points per game during their nine-game winning streak. The difference has been inserting James Harrison into the starting lineup, and getting a healthy Bud Dupree back. The Steelers now have the best pass rush of any team left in the playoffs, which is the key to stopping the Patriots.

Pittsburgh is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Steelers are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Pittsburgh is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage great than 75%. The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons NFC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -4

I was on the Falcons last week and I'm on them again this week. They delivered with a 36-20 win over the Seahawks in a game they dominated. They racked up 422 total yards on the Seahawks while limiting them to just 309, outgaining them by 113 yards for the game.

The Falcons are legitimately probably the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers. They lead the NFL in yards per play differential. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play. They clearly have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not really even been close.

But the promising thing about the Falcons is the fact that they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. The only exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those were scored by their defense and special teams. And they had held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters before giving up 19 points in garbage time in the fourth with the game already decided.

The Packers have been clicking offensively as well and will get their points, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They gave up 31 points and 429 yards to the Cowboys last week. They are now allowing 28.6 points per game, 393 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. The Falcons will expose this D more than it has been all season.

The first meeting this season was a 33-32 shootout in favor of the Falcons. But Atlanta played better than the final score showed. It actually held the Packers to just 331 total yards in that victory, which wouldn’t usually lead to 32 points. Matt Ryan did whatever he wanted to, completing 28 of 35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Keep in mind that Julio Jones was banged up in that game, and Tevin Coleman didn’t even play.

The Packers are dealing with even more injuries this week.  Not only is Jordy Nelson not expected to play, but Davante Adams has a bum ankle, and Geronimo Allison has a hamstring injury.  Nelson and Adams have combined for 26 of Aaron Rodgers' 40 touchdown passes this season.  Defensively, the Packers were already missing several key players in the secondary, but now both CB Quinten Rollins and S Morgan Burnett are questionable with injuries.  Sooner or later, these injuries will catch up to them, and I think that will happen this week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – off one or more straight overs against opponent off six or more consecutive overs are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

It’s been a great run for the Packers, but I think they’re simply out of gas now.  They don't have much left in the tank to give, especially with all the injuries.  The Falcons are rested and ready to go after getting a bye in the wild card round.  And they haven't had to do any traveling as their last road game was on December 24th.  They've basically been in Atlanta for an entire month.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1-point home favorites over the Northwestern Wildcats Sunday.  I'll gladly back them at this price in a game they essentially just have to win to cover.

The Buckeyes are 10-2 at home this season.  One of the losses was a 75-76 loss to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.  The Buckeyes just beat Michigan State 72-67 at home before going on the road and winning at Nebraska.

Ohio State has had Northwestern's number to say the least.  The Buckeyes are 29-2 in their last 31 meetings with the Wildcats, including a perfect 15-0 in their last 15 home meetings.  Again, they just have to win the game today to cover.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* Miami/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -9

I'm anticipating the best effort of the season from Duke here Saturday.  The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back road losses against two of the top teams in the ACC in Florida State and Louisville.  They have now had a full week to fix their issues and get ready for Miami having last played last Saturday.

The Miami Hurricanes haven't shown me anything that would make be believe that they can even be competitive in this game Saturday.  They are 1-3 in their last four games overall, losing by 15 at Syracuse, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 17 at Wake Forest.  None of those three teams are as good as Duke.

And Miami is at a huge disadvantage getting just two days to prepare for Duke.  The Hurricanes played Wake Forest on Wednesday.  Adding to the Blue Devils' motivation is the fact that they've actually lost each of their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, who aren't nearly as strong this year as they were the past two seasons.

Duke is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 9-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points per game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5

The Detroit Pistons are going to be a great bet moving forward.  They haven't lived up to expectations yet as they are just 20-24 on the season, but it appears they are starting to turn the corner.

After winning 102-97 in Los Angeles, the Pistons came back and thumped Atlanta 118-95 at home.  Now the Pistons have had two days off since that game, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Look for a big effort from them here given their rest advantage.

Washington is way overvalued right now due to going 14-5 in its last 19 games overall.  However, almost all of those wins have come at home.  The Wizards are just 5-13 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season.  They don't have the same rest advantage as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

Washington is 1-10 ATS off a road win where it scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games with a total set of 210 or more.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Detroit.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -1

Northern Illinois has been consistently undervalued at home over the past few seasons.  Time and time again they are short home favorites, and the Huskies keep delivering for backers.  They are 8-2 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by 11.1 points per game on average.

The Huskies come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at Miami Ohio.  Despite this fact, the Huskies continue to lack respect from oddsmakers here today.

Ohio just lost its best player in Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) to a season-ending foot injury.  The results without him have not been good.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan 49-53 as 7-point favorites, then proceeded to fall at Akron 68-83 as 6-point dogs.  They are clearly lost without Campbell.

The Huskies are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The Bobcats are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Northern Illinois is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons, coming back to win by nearly 20 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on James Madison +8

James Madison is playing well having gone 5-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.  They suffered a 10-point road loss at Northeastern as 8-point dogs, a 51-53 loss to College of Charleston as 4.5-point home dogs, and a 72-73 loss at William & Mary as 7-point dogs in their three defeats, so they've been competitive in every game.

As you can see, this will be the second meeting between James Madison and College of Charleston this season.  I love taking the team in revenge mode, especially when they are catching a bunch of points on the road.  And after losing by just 2 to College of Charleston in the first meeting, I think there's a ton of value with James Madison at +8 in the rematch.

I think this is an awful spot for College of Charleston, which is coming off a 59-65 home loss to the best team in the conference in UNC-Wilmington as 3.5-point dogs.  Off that deflating loss, I look for them to suffer a hangover here, especially considering they won't be able to get up for a James Madison team that they've already beaten once this year.

The recent head-to-head history also favors James Madison, which is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and Charleston hasn't beaten James Madison by more than 3 points in any of those six meetings.

James Madison is 22-11 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  Charleston is 16-36-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Cougars are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 Saturday games.  The Dukes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take James Madison Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -3

The Florida State Seminoles are 17-2 on the season, including a perfect 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game on the season.  They have home wins over Florida (by 5), Wake Forest (by 16), VA Tech (by 15), Duke (by 16) and Notre Dame (by 3) recently.

Louisville is having a superb season as well, going 16-3 straight up and 12-5 ATS on the year.  But the Cardinals were dealt a big blow when they lost starting PG Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg) for 2-3 weeks with a hip injury.

The Cardinals were able to overcome his injury for a game and thump Clemson 92-60 at home, but now they will be playing just their 4th true road game of the season.  The other three weren't impressive at all as they only won by 9 at Grand Canyon, lost by 7 at Notre Dame and beat lowly Georgia Tech by 15.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Louisville is 2-9 ATS in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Brooklyn Nets right now.  They have lost 11 straight coming in while going 2-9 ATS in the process.  As a result, we're getting a huge number here with the Nets Friday, and the value is clearly with the double-digit road dog.

The schedule has been brutal of late which is a big reason for the Nets' struggles.  Their last three losses have come to the Raptors (twice) and Rockets.  They also lost 95-104 at home to the Pelicans on January 12th just over a week ago, which places them in revenge mode here in the rematch.

The Pelicans are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public due to going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But now we find them laying double-digits for the first time all season.  In fact, they haven't been more than 6-point favorites in any other game this year.

New Orleans is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games off a home win by 20 points or more.  The Pelicans are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Nets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are once again showing great value as home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, yet getting no respect for it from the oddsmakers and betting public.

The 76ers have gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The two losses came on the road to Boston (by 4) and Washington (by 16), and that loss to the Wizards was the second of a back-to-back without Joel Embiid.  When Embiid has been on the floor, this has been a 54-win team, and without him they're an 11-win team.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess this season.  They have lost three straight coming in against Eastern Conference foes, losing by 6 at home to Orlando, and by 19 at Washington and 22 at Charlotte.  This team is just out of it mentally right now, and I don't foresee them turning it around any time soon.

Portland is 5-18 ATS off three straight non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Blazers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The 76ers are 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1

The Charlotte Hornets finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 107-85 home victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last time out.  All five of those losses came on the road, but the Hornets are 13-7 at home this season.  Look for them to build off that win with another here tonight.

The Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and started to show some fatigue in an 89-94 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  And the Raptors are dealing with several injuries right now as DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira are all questionable.

Toronto is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 road games versus teams who scored 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 home meetings.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers will suffer a hangover effect from their blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out.  There's no way they'll be able to get up for the Phoenix Suns like they were against the Warriors.

The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset 108-105 win over San Antonio as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 101-106 loss to Utah as 6.5-point dogs and a narrow 116-120 loss to Cleveland as 8.5-point dogs.

That also puts the Suns in revenge mode here after losing to the Cavaliers by 4 on January 8th less than two weeks ago.  And the Suns haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points, so getting 13 points here is a tremendous value.

Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.   The Cavaliers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -2.5

It has been like night and day for the Iowa Hawkeyes home and away.  They have been terrible on the road, but dominant at home this season.  The Hawkeyes have won seven straight home games coming into this contest against Maryland.

The Hawkeyes are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play, beating Michigan 86-83 as 2.5-point dogs, Rutgers 68-62 and Purdue 83-78 as 6-point dogs.  They also topped Iowa State 78-64 as 6-point dogs as part of this seven-game home winning streak.

I think Maryland comes in overvalued due to its 16-2 record this season where it has done most of its damage at home.  And the Terrapins have won three straight by 7 points or fewer coming in, and I think their luck runs out tonight in Iowa City in these close games.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  They beat Maryland 71-55 in their last home meeting.  Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in while facing a brutal schedule.  The five losses have come against the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder.

Another reason the Kings will be motivated is because this is their final home game before they partake in an 8-game road trip starting on Friday.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Pacers tonight, and they will be putting a lot into this game to get a victory.

Indiana is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall against an extremely soft schedule with five of those wins coming at home.  But the Pacers are just 5-14 SU & 5-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.7 points per game.

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games off a win this season.  Sacramento is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  The Pacers are 0-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 76% or better this season.  The Kings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Loyola back on January 1st.  In fact, the Panthers have lost three straight in this series, so they'll be playing with triple revenge here.  Look for them to get that revenge at home tonight.

The Panthers are undervalued right now after going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS during a stretch that dated back to a loss to Iowa.  They finally broke the streak with a 79-60 win at Drake last time out, and now they have their best player back healthy in Jeremy Morgan (16.9 ppg), who returned for the Drake game and scored 21 points.

Conversely, Loyola comes in overvalued after going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  But the Ramblers have not fared well at UNI, going 1-4 straight up in their last five road meetings in this series.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  Northern Iowa is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.  The Panthers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 22-7 ATS off a conference win over the last three years.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +17

The Oklahoma Sooners are as undervalued as they'll be all season right now.  That's because they lost seven straight games before finally ending that streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  But the Sooners are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here despite going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The biggest reason for the Sooners' struggles was that Jordan Woodard was injured and missed several games.  But he's back healthy now as he returned in a 70-81 loss to Kansas as 12-point dogs prior to the Texas Tech win.  This team will be a tough out moving forward with Woodard back.

West Virginia is as overvalued as it is going to be at any point this season due to its 15-2 start to the season.  That was evident last time out as the Mountaineers barely survived in a 74-72 win at lowly Texas as 11.5-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points to the Sooners tonight.  They're going to have to play a perfect game to cover this massive number.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -5.5

The Florida State Seminoles are a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.  They have been crushing opponents at home in ACC play, beating Wake Forest by 16, Virginia Tech by 15 and Duke by 16.

I believe Notre Dame comes into this game overvalued due to having won seven straight while covering each of the last four against the spread.  But the Fighting Irish's luck will run out here against an FSU team that is a legitimate contender to win the ACC this year.

The Seminoles beat the Fighting Irish 77-56 at home last season as 3-point underdogs.  They have actually won three of their last four meetings in this series.  This will be the toughest road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, who have been fortunate to escape with three close road wins by 5 points or less in ACC play.

Florida State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 11-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  Roll with Florida State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have been dominant at home this year, going 10-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in lined games while winning by an average of 27.6 points per game.  They beat Rutgers by 20 and Ohio State by 23 in their first two conference home games.

The Michigan Wolverines have been an overvalued commodity this season, especially of late.  They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two conferences wins came at home, and both were close as they only beat Penn State 72-69 as 11.5-point favorites, and Nebraska 91-85 as 8.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines lost to Maryland by 7 at home, and both Iowa and Illinois (by 16) on the road.  They are now 0-4 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Wolverines have been outrebounded by 40 boards in Big Ten play.  Wisconsin outrebounds its opponents by an average of 11 boards per game.  That is going to be where this game is won and covered as the Badgers kill Michigan on the glass in this one.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams who make 77% or more of their free throw attempts.  Michigan is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Badgers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting upset 108-105 by the Phoenix Suns in Mexico City.  And they have responded very well following a loss this season, going 7-1 while winning those seven games by an average of 19.7 points.

The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to turn the corner with three straight home wins, but them promptly lost 87-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  They are now just 5-14 SU & 6-13 ATS on the road this season.  And while they have just one day off in between games, the Spurs come in on two days' rest.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Timberwolves.  Seven of those eight wins have come by at least 14 points, so this series hasn't even been competitive.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 21.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -5

Akron is probably the best team in the MAC this season.  The Zips are off to a 14-3 start this year, including a perfect 4-0 in conference play.  They have won seven straight games coming in to this showdown with rival Ohio.

The Bobcats are at a big disadvantage here.  Leading scorer and rebound Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) suffered a foot injury on Saturday against Eastern Michigan.  He played just 3 minutes before exiting, and the Bobcats went on to get upset 49-53 as 7-point home favorites.  Campbell is doubtful to return tonight.

Akron is 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.  The Zips are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, winning by 15 at home, 12 on the road and 12 at home.  I expect another double-digit blowout victory for the Zips tonight.

Akron is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  THe Zips are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Akron is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Take Akron Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The books have set the bar too high in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair in this contest, which is exactly what it has been the last several times these teams have gotten together.

In fact, the Warriors and Cavs haven't combined for more than 217 points in any of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 202.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than this posted total of 226.5.  As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER.

Cleveland is 12-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 22-8-2 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +14

No team has played Villanova tougher than Seton Hall over the past few seasons.  Last year, all three meetings between these teams were decided by 9 points or less.  The Pirates lost by 9 as 15-point road dogs, lost by 1 as 7-point home dogs and upset the Wildcats by 2 as 6-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Seton Hall brought back four starters from that team and his playing well again this season.  The Pirates are 12-5 this season with all five of their losses coming by 14 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer.  Off back-to-back tough road losses to Marquette (by 3) and Providence (by 4), the Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory here.

I think Villanova comes in overvalued off three straight wins by 12 points or more against Marquette, Xavier and St. John's.  The Wildcats aren't going to be able to consistently cover these inflated spreads as the oddsmakers know the betting public is going to be quick to back the national champs moving forward.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two years.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS after 15-plus games against teams that win 80% or more of their games.  The Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Seton Hall Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 75-63 upset home win as 10-point dogs to Clemson.  We saw what happened the last time the Yellow Jackets pulled off a 75-63 upset at home over UNC.  They proceeded to get blown out 57-110 at Duke in their next game.

The Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the road this season.  They haven't even been competitive away from home as they are getting outscored by 20.0 points per game on the highway.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout here.

NC State comes in hungry for a win after two straight road losses at UNC and Boston College.  I like the Wolfpack's chances of bouncing back here considering they are 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game.  In their only ACC home game, they destroyed Virginia Tech 104-78.

Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  NC State is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with NC State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as double-digit home underdogs to the Houston Rockets Sunday.  The Nets have lost nine straight while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That's why we are getting such a big number here.

The Houston Rockets are overvalued because they have gotten off to a surprising 31-11 start.  But it's starting to catch up to them as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games while getting upset in two straight games.  However, the public support continues to be there for them, so the oddsmakers are forced to inflate their lines.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They only lost 118-122 as 13.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season in December, and now they are catching 13 again in the rematch at home this time around.  That just shows you that there is plenty of line value here.  Plus, the Nets won 110-105 as 5-point home dogs and 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two previous meetings with the Rockets.

The Nets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 78-38 (67.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Nets Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Cowboys were one of the most underrated teams in the NFL for much of the season. They went 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS and opened the season with 10 straight games without a loss against the spread. However, they then became overvalued and were great fade material down the stretch. I took advantage and went against them routinely, and they closed just 1-5 ATS in their final six games.

Because of that poor finish ATS, I believe the Cowboys are now undervalued heading into the playoffs. And while I’ve been riding the Packers religiously with a ton of success during their 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, I’m certain they are now overvalued and it’s time to fade them. This line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.

The Cowboys have had two weeks off to get healthy, plus they rested many starters in Week 17, so they’ll be ready to go. The Packers have gone through a grueling stretch with balls to the wall just to get in to the playoffs. And the injuries are now starting to take their toll. Both Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery, two of their biggest weapons on offense, were hurt in the win over the Giants. Nelson is doubtful this week, while Montgomery is questionable. Not to mention, the Packers have had a depleted secondary all season.

The Cowboys have the type of offense that can exploit a weak Green Bay defense. They rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 376.7 yards per game. They are extremely balanced as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 149.8 yards per game, and they complete 67.3% of their passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt through the air. They are virtually unstoppable on offense.

That was clearly on display in their first meeting with the Packers this season. They went into Lambeau Field and won 30-16 as 5-point underdogs. They racked up 424 total yards on the suspect Packers’ defense, including 191 rushing and 233 passing. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries, while Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

I think the Cowboys are going to be able to score at will against a Green Bay defense that gives up 6.1 yards per play this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. And the Packers have been especially poor defensively on the road, giving up 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They wore down in their first meeting with the Cowboys, and that’s going to happen again with the way Dallas can possess the ball, averaging nearly 32 possession minutes per game.

Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games off a loss by 14 points or more. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) – after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) – after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1983. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +16

By no means do I think the Texans will win this game, but 16 points is a ton. I think they can stay within the number and take this game down to the wire. There are numerous reasons they should be able to be competitive, and it starts with their defense.

The Texans actually ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season. They give up just 295.5 yards per game on the season, including 220.8 yards per game in their last four contest. They have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the NFL, ranking 2nd against the pass at 201.6 yards per game. Their defensive backs stick to receivers like glue, and they’re getting a solid pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney. They certainly have what it takes to slow down Tom Brady and company.

A benching may be just what Brock Osweiler needed. He responded with one of his best games of the season against the Raiders. Osweiler finished 14 of 25 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown without an interception. By no means is he a top-tier quarterback now, but I think he can make enough plays to keep them in the game. And Lamar Miller is back healthy now, rushing for 73 yards and a score against the Raiders.

You’re going to hear this stat plenty leading up to this game. The Patriots have outscored the Texans 54-6 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. But the Texans’ defense actually played well in both games, limiting the Patriots to just 282 and 313 total yards. And they gave away the game earlier this season in a 27-0 loss by fumbling twice on special teams, turning the ball over three times in all. They actually outgained the Patriots 284-282 in that contest.

The Patriots are about as overvalued as they’ve been at any point this season. That’s because they come in to this game on a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, including five straight covers. But the competition has been very suspect as they’ve faced the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that was a Miami squad that had nothing to play for against the Patriots in Week 17.

This will now be a step up in class for the Patriots against a Texans team playing their best football of the season. Houston has won four of its last five games overall with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against Tennessee. The Texans have outgained their last four opponents by a combined 334 yards, or by an average of 83.5 yards per game.

Plays against favorites who score 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Roll with the Texans Saturday.

15* Spurs/Suns Mexico City No-Brainer on San Antonio -11

I look for the disciplined San Antonio Spurs to treat this game in Mexico City like a business trip.  I look for the youthful Phoenix Suns to treat this trip to Mexico City more like a vacation.  Expect the Spurs to roll because of their better mindset going in.

Plus, the Spurs have absolutely owned the Suns of late.  San Antonio is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Phoenix.  Amazingly, seven of the last eight wins by the Spurs in this series have come by 14 points or more.  The last eight have also come by an average of 20.1 points per game, which is roughly nine points more than this 11-point spread.

Phoenix is 1-11 ATS in January road games over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 9-1 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 16-3 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103 or more points per game this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 9-1 at home this season.  They are 2-0 at home in Big Ten play with a 75-70 win over Ohio State and an 85-69 win over Michigan.  They also beat NC State 88-74 at home earlier this season.  It's clear that they are taking advantage of their home floor this year, and this is a short price as a result.

Maryland is coming off a huge 75-72 home win over Indiana as 1.5-point dogs.  The Terrapins have only played two true road games this year.  They erased a double-digit deficit late to beat Georgetown 76-75, and also topped Michigan 77-70.  I think this will be their toughest road test of the season here, and they are in line to suffer their first loss.

There's no question that the Fighting Illini will be the more motivated team here to avenge their 84-59 road loss to the Terrapins on December 27th in their season opener.  Conversely, the Terrapins probably feel like they just have to show up to win here after winning that game by 25, and it's going to work against them.

Illinois is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +3

The Utah Utes are now healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five of their last six games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  Their only loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.4 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (12.1 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has missed two.  But they have had their full compliment of players for a few games now and the results have shown that they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12.

I've been riding UCLA a lot this season, but not lately because they've been overvalued, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I believe them to be overvalued here after their 104-89 win at Colorado on Thursday as 5-point favorites.

That makes this a very tough spot for the Bruins, who will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  With all the traveling they've had to do, they have had little time to prepare for Utah.  Meanwhile, the Utes beat USC 86-64 at home on Thursday and now get to stay at home here.  Without the travel, they'll be by far the more prepared team for this matchup.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is 9-1 at home this season and winning by 22.4 points per game.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  UCLA is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road favorite.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -5

Obviously both teams are going to be motivated here. But I think the Falcons have the extra motivation after the way they lost in Seattle earlier this season, 24-26. The refs missed a pass interference call on Richard Sherman that would have set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal. And that loss has left a sour taste in the Falcons’ mouths that they would love to wash out here.

To be honest, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. They rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense. They are also 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.6 yards per game. This team just doesn’t get the same kind of respect as other top teams like the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 415.8 yards per game. They have so many weapons this year that they are just so tough to tame. Julio Jones has been as efficient as ever, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are two of the most underrated receivers in the game, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can both do it all rushing and receiving. Not to mention, center Alex Mack was a huge addition to this offensive line and has the boys up front playing as well as they have in a long time.

Certainly the Falcons don’t have a top defense, but they aren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they’re made out to be. They give up points and yards because opponents are consistently playing from behind. But they were much better down the stretch, giving up 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games. And the lone exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those came from KC’s defense and special teams. And they allowed 32 to the Saints in the finale, but they had held them to only 13 points until fourth quarter garbage time with the game already decided.

The Seahawks were a great home team this year, but it has been a different story on the road. They are just 3-4-1 SU & 3-5 ATS in all road games this year. Their offense was abysmal on the road this season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. They lost 10-38 at Green Bay, 5-14 at Tampa Bay, 20-25 at New Orleans and 3-9 at Los Angeles. And they were fortunate to win 25-23 at San Francisco in Week 17.

Teams have been able to take advantage of the absence of Earl Thomas down the stretch. The Packers put up 38 points on the Seahawks, the Cardinals put up 34, and the 49ers even had some success with 23 points. You can just imagine what the best offense in the NFL is going to do against this Seattle defense this week. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on this Seattle defense in the first meeting, and that was with Thomas in the lineup.

Seattle is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 6 points or fewer last game. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Falcons Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 13-3 this season and have been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with recent wins over Syracuse 83-73 as 3-point favorites and Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame has only played two true road games this season.  The Fighting Irish are 2-0 in them, but they came by a combined 6 points at Miami 67-62 and at Pitt 78-77 in overtime.  This will easily be their toughest road test of the season, and I look for them to struggle in this hostile atmosphere.

Virginia Tech nearly beat Notre Dame as 12.5-point road dogs last year in their lone meeting.  The Hokies only lost that game by a final of 81-83.  And there's no question the Hokies are better this season and a legit contender in the ACC.  Look for them to prove that in this game.

The Hokies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight and five of their last six coming in.  Four of the losses came on the road to the Bulls, Pistons, Spurs and Rockets, while the lone home loss came to the Cavs.  They also beat the Thunder by 11 at home during this stretch.

It's safe to say that the recent struggles can almost exclusively be attributed to the tough schedule, and not poor performance.  But now the Hornets get a break in the schedule here against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, who come in overvalued due to having gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The four wins came against the Nuggets, T'Wolves, Nets and Knicks, four below-average teams.

I like the fact that the Hornets will be motivated here because that means they aren't going to take the 76ers lightly.  And that's not something they do anyways.  That's obvious by the fact that the Hornets have won six straight meetings with the 76ers.  The last five have all come by 9 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Look for the domination to continue tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 110 points or more are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996.

Both Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Batum missed the last three games, while Zeller sat out the last one.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pistons/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +13.5

The Golden State Warriors have been great fade material of late.  They keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because the betting public is always going to be heavy on them.  And as a result, their lines continue to be inflated, providing value on the opposing teams.

That has especially been the case of late as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 contests.  They haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 12 points.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning by margins this year.

The Pistons just faced the Warriors on December 23rd in their first meeting this season.  They only lost that game 113-119 at home as 7-point dogs.  They beat the Warriors 113-95 as 7-point home dogs in their final meeting last season as well.  They've clearly proven they can play with this team.

Detroit is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games when the total is 210 or more.  The Pistons are 13-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Golden State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +6

The Iowa Hawkeyes want revenge from a 67-89 loss at Purdue to open conference play this season.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will now get a shot at the Boilermakers only two weeks later.  I look for them to take advantage and keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Hawkeyes have played well since that defeat.  They beat Michigan 86-83 in overtime at home, only lost 90-93 in double-overtime at Nebraska in a game they should have won, and then beat Rutgers 68-62 at home last time out.  Iowa has now won six straight home games, which includes a 78-64 victory over Iowa State as well.

This is clearly a letdown spot for Purdue.  The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 66-55 victory over Wisconsin, which was the favorite to win the conference coming into the season.  This will only be the third true road game for the Boilermakers this season.  They lost 64-71 at Louisville and barely beat Ohio State 76-75.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa City.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah -5

The Utah Utes have gotten healthy and are now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four of their last five games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  The lone loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.6 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (11.9 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has missed two.  But they have their full compliment of players now moving forward.

The USC Trojans got off to a 14-0 start this season against a very weak schedule, but they've since lost two of their last three.  They lost 61-84 at Oregon and 73-74 at home to California with their lone victory coming at home against lowly Stanford.  Their true colors are starting to show as they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Utes are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Trojans.  Each of the last six victories have come by at least 8 points and by an average of 16.2 points per game.  This appears to be a very short price given the series history.

Utah is 8-1 at home this season, and 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  I think this is a very short number here and we'll take advantage.

That's especially the case considering the Cowboys will be motivated for a victory after losing two straight and three of their last four coming in.  The last two were both true road games at UNLV and Fresno State, while the other was a tough 92-94 loss to a very good USC team on a neutral court.

Conversely, Utah State comes in off two straight home victories over UNLV and New Mexico.  But the Aggies have only played three true road games this season.  They lost 73-78 at Air Force, and barely beat Utah Valley State 80-79 in their last two.  This will be by far their toughest road test of the season here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wyoming is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Utah State, winning by 19, 23, 17 and 6 points, respectively.

Utah State is 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Wyoming is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better over the last three years.  The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had numerous second-half collapses this season.  Perhaps none were worse than their 111-109 overtime loss at home to the Rockets in December.  They have 12 losses this season when leading by double-digits, and they led by 12 points with 2:19 left in that game.

But the Rockets closed on a 14-2 run thanks to four 3-pointers from Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza.  James Harden then scored 10 points in overtime to lead Houston to victory.  It's safe to say that the Timberwolves haven't forgotten, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge tonight as a result.

And just like in that game, Houston comes in playing the second of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Rockets.  They are running on fumes right now, and that started to show last night as they blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Hornets, only to win 121-114 as 9-point favorites.  They won't be so fortunate to escape with victory again tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -5.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles don't have to wait long for revenge.  They just lost 66-69 at Seton Hall on January 1st, and now they face the Pirates again 10 days later at home this time around.  I look for them to get their revenge in blowout fashion.

After opening the Big East campaign with a 76-66 win over Georgetown, the Golden Eagles have lost two straight tough road games and Seton Hall and Villanova.  But now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game.

Seton Hall has only played two true road games all season.  One was a win over a down Iowa team, while the other resulted in a 14-point loss at Creighton.  The Pirates are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing extremely well at home this season.  They are 10-10 at home, and they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins by 14 over Memphis, by 27 over Miami and by 16 over Orlando.  Look for them to continue to roll at home tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly having a down season.  They are just 16-23 on the year, and they have really struggled on the road, going 6-15 SU & 8-13 ATS.  Their biggest problem is giving up 113.9 points per game on average in road games this season.

The Lakers will be extra motivated tonight to avenge a 109-118 road loss at Portland on January 5th just five days ago.  They actually led that game 62-53 at halftime before blowing it in the second half, especially in the last few minutes.  Look for them to get their payback less than a week later here.

Portland is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Lakers have actually lost nine straight in this series, which only adds to their motivation for a win here.  Take the Lakers on the Money Line Tuesday. 

15* Duke/Florida State ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 15-1 this season with wins over the likes of Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest and VA Tech at home, and Virginia on the road.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC.

Duke continues to be overvalued.  It has gone just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Blue Devils have only played two true road games this season, winning at UNLV but losing 75-89 at Virginia Tech despite being 4.5-point favorites.  And they only won by 11 as 26-point favorites over Boston College last time out.

Injuries have played a part in Duke's struggles, and it will be without another key player tonight.  Amile Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been their best interior player all season, and he is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.  Look for the Seminoles to take advantage.  They are 11-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and will feed off their rowdy home crowd tonight.

Duke is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors are going through their worst stretch of the season, losing five of their last seven games overall.  And that's why they are undervalued right now laying only 4 points at home here.

Conversely, the Boston Celtics have won four straight coming in, making them overvalued right now.  But keep in mind that all four of those victories came at home, and they were mostly against subpar teams in the Heat, Jazz, 76ers and Pelicans.  And they only beat the Heat by 3 and the 76ers by 4.

The Raptors have had the Celtics' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  And while the Raptors are basically at full strength right now, the Celtics are not.  They will be missing both center Tyler Zeller and starting shooting guard Avery Bradley for this one.  Not having Bradley is huge because he plays such great defense against opponents' best guards.

The Celtics are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -3.5

Off back-to-back tough road losses at NC State and Florida State, look for the Virginia Tech Hokies to come back highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight against Syracuse.  I think they come in undervalued after their first losing streak of the season.

Syracuse is starting to get some love from oddsmakers now after winning and covering back-to-back home games against Miami by 15 and Pittsburgh by 11.  But keep in mind that the Orange are 0-2 in true road games with blowout losses to Wisconsin by 17 as 6-point dogs and to Boston College by 15 as 10.5-point favorites.

Also keep in mind that Virginia Tech is 9-0 at home this season and winning by 19.7 points per game on average.  That includes a win over Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs in their ACC home opener just a week and a half ago.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant win here as well.

Virginia Tech is 15-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

20* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Rematch on Clemson +7

Clemson survived some scares early on in the season, and I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team. The Tigers have gone on to win their last four games in dominant fashion with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship and that 31-0 shutout of Urban Meyer and Ohio State last week. And that game against VA Tech was a 21-point game until the Hokies tacked on a few touchdowns in garbage time with the game basically decided.

Dabo Swinney is now 5-1 SU & and a perfect 6-0 ATS in his last six bowl games. All six have come in the role of the underdog. Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and ’15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year. Then they beat Meyer and Ohio State again by 31 points last week.

Now the Tigers find themselves in the role of the dog again this week and looking for revenge from that loss to Alabama last year. You could certainly argue that the Tigers outplayed the Crimson Tide in that contest and should have won. They outgained them by 77 yards and racked up 550 total yards in the loss.

Deshaun Watson had himself a day, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception, while also rushing for 73 yards.  The key play was an onside kick called by Nick Saban late that was recovered by Alabama.  Saban admitted that they couldn't stop them afterwards, which was the reason he went for the onside.  He didn't see much of a difference in giving them the ball at the 20 or the 50, because they were going to score anyways.

Alabama hasn’t faced an offense as explosive as this Clemson outfit this season. The Tigers are putting up 39.5 points, 502.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. And the defense continues to be one of the most underrated in the country, giving up only 17.1 points, 306.9 yards per game and 4.6 per play. This will be by far Alabama’s toughest test of the season, and they always tend to struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks because they play man-to-man on defense and can't account for Watson's running ability.

I think there has been a big distraction with Lane Kiffin that could hurt the Crimson Tide here. He was let go after the win over Washington, and now Steve Sarkisian will be replacing him. There could be some chemistry issues there with Sarkisian and QB Jalen Hurts. And Hurts played his worst game of the season against Washington, completing only 7-of-14 passes for 57 yards, while also rushing for only 50 yards on 19 carries. They won in spite of him, thanks in large part to another defensive touchdown, which was their 11th of the season.

It's clear that the SEC was overrated this season, while the ACC was vastly underrated.  The SEC went just 6-6 in bowl games this season.  The ACC went 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in bowl games.  That includes big wins by Florida State over Michigan and Virginia Tech over Arkansas, and obviously Clemson's win over Ohio State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent teams who outscore opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Swinney is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Swinney is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per play as the coach of Clemson.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -3.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost seven of their last eight games overall coming in and need a win here to stem the tide.  I look for them to come out with an inspired effort tonight as a result.

The Pelicans have lost three straight coming in.  They are just 4-13 SU & 6-10-1 ATS in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are 11-7 SU & 12-6 ATS at home, finally enjoying a home-court advantage this season as fans have been excited about this team.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.

The Knicks are 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  New York is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just recently returned their best player to the lineup in Damian Lillard.  They are starting to play much better of late with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests.  They are once again being undervalued here as only 3.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons don't deserve the kind of respect they're getting from oddsmakers here.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Detroit is also 7-12 SU & 7-12 ATS in road games this season, while Portland is 10-7 SU at home.

Plays against any team (DETROIT) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Take the Blazers Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -3

The Purdue Boilermakers are on a mission to win the Big Ten this season.  Almost everyone picked Wisconsin prior to the season, so they know that they need to knock off the Badgers here.  That's especially the case after suffering an upset loss to Minnesota a couple games back.

Purdue has a tremendous home-court advantage, and it owned Wisconsin in both meetings last season.  The Boilermakers won 91-80 as 6-point home favorites and 61-55 as 5-point road favorites in their two meetings last year.  I think they win this game as well for their 3rd in a row in the series.

Purdue is 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game this season.  Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with Purdue Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -10

The Steelers have really turned it on since their four-game losing streak midseason. They have now won seven straight games while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. They outgained nine straight opponents before resting many of their starters last week against the Browns in a meaningless contest.

The Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, their record shows 10-6, but this is more like a 6-10 team when you look at the numbers. They have been outgained in five of their last six games. The Dolphins rank 29th in yardage differential on the season, getting outgained by 49.8 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some poor company.

This game will be a complete reversal of the first time these teams played back in October. In that game, Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Now it’s the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, meaning Matt Moore will get the nod in the rematch. And the Dolphins could be missing as many as six players who played in that first meeting with the Steelers who are likely to be unavailable this time around, including two safeties on defense.

This game fits one of my favorite playoff systems. It involves betting on teams who played the tougher schedule during the regular season. Wild card teams who played the tougher schedule are 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS over the last 14 seasons since the wild card system was adopted. When there is a difference of 10 or more in strength of schedule, the teams who played the tougher schedule are 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers played the 11th-toughest schedule this season, while the Dolphins played the 27th.

The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 30th in rushing defense at 140 yards per game and dead last at 4.8 yards per carry. They allow 383 total yards per game and 5.8 per play. Look for Le’Veon Bell to have a field day against the Dolphins here. The Steelers have averaged 135 rushing yards per game in their last seven contests.  Like Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben also rested last week, so they should come in firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

While the Steelers’ offense gets all the credit, it’s the improvement from the defense that makes this team a real Super Bowl contender. The Steelers only give up 20.4 points per game this season. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. And I think you can throw out the Cleveland game at the end in which they gave up 24 points because they weren’t interested.

Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a game where both teams score 24 or more points. Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams who allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two years. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

Many bettors are going to see the Dolphins catching double-digits with this 10-point spread and just jump on them thinking there's value.  But there's a lot of good reasons why they are double-digit dogs.  And keep in mind, the last five double-digit favorites in the playoffs are a perfect 5-0 ATS.  These playoff teams are always focused, so you don't have to worry about letdowns.  And Pittsburgh wants its revenge from that earlier loss to Miami.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +15

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are a senior-laden team that has won four straight, including each of their first two Pac-12 games with a 79-74 win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a 75-62 home victory over Oregon State as 4-point favorites.

I think Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to winning 12 straight, including three straight to open conference play with victories over UCLA and USC at home, as well as Washington on the road.  It's time to fade them now that they are laying a whopping 15 points on the road to the Cougars here.

Washington is a common opponent.  The Cougars beat the Huskies 79-74 on the road, while the Ducks beat them 83-61 on the road.  But that was a close game against Washington until Tyler Dorsey caught fire late in the second half to pull away.  He made 8-of-12 3-pointers for the game with almost all of them coming in the second half.  It was a 22-point win, but that game was much closer than that.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Washington State upset Oregon 108-99 in its last home meeting with the Ducks.  The Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  The Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +11

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued right now due to their 14-0 start to the season that has them sitting as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  We saw evidence of that last time out as the Bears needed a game-winner late to beat Iowa State 65-63 at home as 8.5-point favorites.

The Bears are feeling fat and happy and ripe for an upset right now.  Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference after starting 0-2 with a home loss to West Virginia, and a tough 79-82 road loss at Texas.

But we've seen earlier what the Cowboys are capable of on the road.  They've blown out Georgetown 97-70 on a neutral court, won 93-76 at Wichita State as 7.5-point dogs, and only lost 70-71 at Maryland.  They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 11 points of Baylor here.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a home win against a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +4

The Houston Texans won the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South for a second consecutive season. Now they are getting some big-time line respect from the books in the wild card round, and I don’t think it’s warranted. I believe there to be a lot of value here with the Raiders as 4-point underdogs.

Just think back to the regular season meeting when the Raiders were 6.5-point favorites over the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20. There has been a 10.5-point adjustment since that night in terms of the point spread, and that fact alone shows that there is value with the Raiders.

Of course, I realize Derek Carr is now out for the season, so that makes a difference. But I don’t think it is worth as much as oddsmakers are adjusting for. And it’s not like the quarterback situation in Oakland with Connor Cook starting is that much worse off than the one in Houston.  Cook actually played well against Denver's #1 pass defense last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Texans are giving Brock Osweiler the start. He was benched in the Jacksonville game in Week 15 in favor of Tom Savage. Savage led them to a comeback 21-20 win, and then a 12-10 win over Cincinnati in Week 16 that clinched the division. Savage started against the Titans in Week 17, but was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

It’s well documented that Osweiler has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He ranks 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in QBR, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick being worse.  He is completing just 59 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Texans rank just 29th in total offense at 314.7 yards per game, and 29th in passing offense at 198.5 yards per game.

I think that bad showing against the Broncos on the road has the Raiders undervalued here. They were shell-shocked once McGloin got injured. But now they’ve got a full week to get ready. And this is a team that went 12-4 this season against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. I think that is being discounted way too much here.

One of my favorite wild card round systems involves backing teams that played the tougher schedule in the Sagarin ratings. Teams that played the tougher schedule have gone 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS in the wild card round in the last 14 seasons. The Raiders played the 4th-toughest schedule, while the Texans played the 18th. When there is a 10 or more SOS difference between them, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS, and this matchup fits that criteria.

The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma +11

The Oklahoma Sooners are way undervalued right now.  They have lost five straight coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But four of those five losses came by 5 points or less with the lone exception being a blowout loss to unbeaten Baylor, one of the top teams in the country.

Oklahoma was just catching 11 points at TCU and only lost 57-60.  But the Sooners have been without PG Jordan Woodard in recent games, and he's doubtful again tonight.  The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for his absence, and the Sooners are starting to get used to playing without him.

I think this is a tremendous spot to fade Kansas State, which is coming off its biggest game of the season in an 88-90 road loss to rival Kansas.  I look for the Wildcats to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to come out flat today against the Sooners.  They won't have the kind of focus and intensity it's going to take to put the Sooners away by double-digits.  Oklahoma will be the more motivated team looking to end this 5-game skid.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Sooners are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Knicks/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 214

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will be playing a home-and-home here Friday night.  They just played on Wednesday, and the Bucks won 105-104 on a game-winner at the buzzer by the Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Now they are playing just two nights later.

I always look to back the UNDER in the second meeting of these home-and-home situations.  That's because there is a familiarity between the teams that makes points harder to come by in the second meeting.  And I think that will be the case again here as these teams combined for 209 points with a 213-point total in the first meeting, and now the total is actually set higher at 214 in the rematch, so the oddsmakers have failed to adjust.

And this has been a very low-scoring series in general.  In fact, the Bucks and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 91-82 upset road win at Purdue as 14-point dogs.  This is clearly a huge letdown spot for them now, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight at Northwestern.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 52-61 road loss to Michigan State last time out.  That came after an 87-77 win at Penn State in their conference opener.  The Wildcats will be hungry to get back in the win column here and to win their conference home opener tonight.

Both of these teams are improved this season, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats destroyed the Golden Gophers in their two meetings last year.  They won 77-52 as 2.5-point road favorites and 82-58 as 8-point home favorites.  They have now won five of the last six meetings in this series while going 5-1 ATS in the process.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Golden Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Northwestern Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are now playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.  They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming in Cleveland.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as well.  And now they are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a ton of respect from the books now that they have won four straight coming in.  However, this team is in a very bad spot tonight.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans come in on two days' rest after playing the Cavs on Monday.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% this season.  It is actually losing to these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -3.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most improved teams in the country under Dan D'Antoni, Mike D'Antoni's brother, this season.  They have gone 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season, time and time again beting undervalued by oddsmakers.

Some of their losses have actually been more impressive than their wins.  They went into Cincinnati and forced overtime as 20.5-point dogs, only losing 91-93.  They went into Pitt as 12.5-point dogs and only lost 106-112.  Despite those back-to-back losses in late December, they didn't suffer any hangover as they went on to beat FIU 94-70 as 4-point road favorites and FAU 89-72 as 6.5-point favorites in their last two contests.

Marshall has a better team than last year, yet it swept Old Dominion in the season series last season.  The Thundering Herd won 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs, then came back and stomped the Monarchs 82-65 as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  I think another blowout can be expected here.

Marshall is 10-1 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Thundering Herd are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

After back-to-back huge victories over UCLA and USC, the Oregon Ducks are overvalued now.  The betting public has jumped all over them after handing both UCLA and USC their first losses of the season, and now they are being asked to lay a whopping 10 points on the road to Washington tonight.

Let's not let two performances mask how poorly the Ducks played in the early going.  They went just 4-7 ATS in their first 11 lined games.  And both of those big wins over UCLA and USC came at home, where the Ducks rarely lose.  But they have played just one true road game the entire season, which was a 49-66 loss at Baylor.

Washington comes in undervalued after a bad 74-79 home loss as 12.5-point favorites against Washington State.  But that was a rivalry game where anything can happen.  And the result has provided some extra line value here for the Huskies as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team, which has gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And these games are almost always close.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home meetings.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Magic OVER 207

I believe the books have set the bar too low here in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic tonight.  These have been two dead-nut over teams of late and I think that trend continues here as we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, and little defense played.

The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four games overall.  They have combined for 214, 221, 221 and 218 points in those four contests.  The OVER is 7-4 in Hawks' last 11 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 217 or more points six times during this stretch.

And the recent head-to-head history favors the OVER, too.  In their first meeting this season, the Magic won 131-120 for 251 combined points.  There was very little defense played obviously as the Magic shot 58.6% from the floor while the Hawks shot 50.0%.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Hawks last seven road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Magic's last nine home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +10.5

This is a big number for the Duquesne Dukes to be catching tonight in their conference home opener against Virginia Commonwealth.  I'll gladly take the points with the way that the Dukes have been playing coming in.  This is a game they will have a chance to win outright.

The Dukes are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  That includes a 64-55 upset of Pitt as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Dukes have lost five games this season, but only one of them came by double-digits, which was a true road game at national power Kentucky.  That is obviously understandable.

VCU has played only three true road games this season, and although it is 3-0 in those games, none of them came by double-digits.  They beat Liberty 64-59, Old Dominion 67-64 and George Mason 73-64.  As stated before, the Dukes haven't lost a home game by double-digits this year.

Duquesne is 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last three seasons.  VCU is 58-83 ATS in its last 141 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Dukes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Duquesne Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to play better now that they've gotten healthy.  The have won four of their last eight games overall with three of their four losses coming on the road, and two of them to the Rockets and Warriors.  Amazingly, they're only 4.5 games out of the playoffs in the West, and they are clearly motivated to get this thing turned around.

"We obviously know we have a legit shot," Dirk Nowitzki said. "We've got to put a little string together and we've got to play better. We've got to find a way in close games to close some of those out and not always come out on the losing end. I don't think we're really playing for draft position.  We're playing to win every night."

I think this is a great spot to fade the Washington Wizards.  They are coming off a 91-101 loss to the Rockets on the road last night, blowing a 15-point lead after the first quarter.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back here, while the Mavs have had three days off in between games having last played on Friday.

The Mavericks have owned the Wizards, going 11-1 straight up in the last 12 meetings dating back to 2010.  The Wizards are 1-5 SU when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure PK

I like this St. Bonaventure team.  It made the NCAA Tournament last year and is off to a 10-4 start this season with its four losses all coming by 7 points or less.  The Bonnies have gone on the road and won and covered against both Hofstra and UMass, winning 89-77 as 2-point dogs against the Minutemen in their Atlantic 10 opener.

Dayton is a quality team again this season at 10-3, but it has only played one true road game all season.  The Flyers will now be playing for the first time on the road since November 15th.  And they are likely to be doing it without their best player.

Charles Cooke has a bone bruise in his back and is questionable to play tonight.  He averages 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories.  The Flyers were already without third-leading scorer Josh Cunningham (13.2 ppg), who also leads the team with an average of 3.8 assists per game.

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in road games off a combined score of 125 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 12-3 ATS off a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Flyers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Bonnies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

15* UNC/Clemson ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

I expect a big effort from the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight.  They are coming off an ugly 63-75 loss at Georgia Tech as 17-point favorites in their ACC opener on Saturday.  Look for them to play motivated basketball here tonight to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.

North Carolina leads the all-time series 130-20 over Clemson.  The Tar Heels have won eight straight meetings with the Tigers dating back to 2011.  They have won the last five in blowout fashion by 11, 24, 19, 9 and 22 points, respectively.

Clemson comes into this game getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to winning nine straight and covering each of their last four.  But that has mostly come against a soft schedule, and they had huge comeback wins over the two best teams they played in South Carolina (by 2) and Wake Forest (by 5).  They closed the game on a 12-0 run to beat the Demon Deacons on Saturday, which was highly unlikely.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 points or more since 1997.  The Tar Heels are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +10

Now healthy for the first time all season, the New Orleans Pelicans are starting to show what they are capable of.  They have own four straight coming in and will be motivated to take on the defending champion Cavaliers tonight to show what they are made of.

The Cavaliers come in overvalued due to having won seven of their last eight games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here because they have only one day off in between games, while the Pelicans have had two days off to get ready for the Cavaliers.

The Pelicans have really had the Cavs' number in recent meetings, too.  They have won five of the last seven meetings overall, and eight of the last 11 as well.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +8.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are showing great value here as 8.5-point home dogs to the Charleston Cougars.  I think they're good enough to win this game outright, so getting the 8.5 points is just an added bonus here.

Delaware is 5-1 at home this season.  Its only loss came last time out against a very good Hofstra team by a final of 56-58 as 8-point dogs.  The Blue Hens pulled the 63-54 upset of Iona as 10-point dogs in their previous home game, too.  If they can handle those two teams, they can certainly handle Charleston.

One thing that really stood out to me was just how closely-contested this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, a ridiculous eight straight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Seven of those came within the last three seasons.  And the home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.

Delaware is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Charleston.  The Cougars are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.  The Blue Hens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Delaware is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  Charleston is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  Bet Delaware Monday.

20* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on USC -7

You could make the argument that USC has been the second-best team in the country over the final eight weeks of the season, and I would not disagree one bit.  The Trojans have won eight straight games coming in with seven of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  The only exception was a 21-17 win over Colorado in which they outgained the Buffaloes by 168 yards and should have won by more.

In fact, the Trojans have outgained their last eight opponents by a total of 1,463 yards, which is an average of 162 yards per game.  Their defense hasn't allowed more than 27 points in any of the eight games, including 20 or fewer six times.  And the offense has taken off ever since Sam Darnold took over.

Darnold lost his first start in a hostile environment in Utah, but played well in the defeat, and the Trojans have won eight straight since.  Darnold is already going to be among the Heisman favorites next year with what he has done this season.  He is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Penn State was a team I was very high on coming into the season.  In fact, their OVER 7 wins was my favorite win total in college football, and I cashed it with ease.  But I think they are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors lately and are fortunate to have won the Big Ten with an 11-2 record.

They have won their last nine games, which started with an overtime victory over Minnesota at home.  They were lucky to beat Ohio State with a blocked FG that was returned for a touchdown as they trailed by 14 in the 4th quarter.  They should have lost to Indiana on the road, and they came back from 21 down to beat Wisconsin in the title game. It has been a great run, but it ends here in the Rose Bowl.

USC will be better at almost every position on the field in this game, and certainly more athletic at most positions.  Trace McSorley had a great freshman season for the Nittany Lions, but he's not going to be able to make big plays against this USC secondary, which is led by 1st-team All-America CB Adoree Jackson.  He won the 2016 Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back, while also averaging 30.5 yards on kickoff returns and 15.9 on punt returns with a combined four touchdowns.

We saw a Big Ten team get dominated in the Rose Bowl last season.  Iowa lost to Stanford 16-45, and I think we could see a similar beat down here.  In fact, the Big Ten is just 2-11 in its last 13 Rose Bowl appearances dating back to 2001.  Despite winning the Big Ten this season, I think Penn State is just the 4th-best team in the conference, and they would be big underdogs to both Ohio State and Michigan, and small dogs to Wisconsin.  Since I believe USC is the second-best team in the country right now, it should be laying more than a touchdown here.

It's also worth noting that Penn State has recently suspended two of its starters in WR Saeed Blacknall and LB Manny Bowen.  Blacknall missed five games due to injury, but was a valuable piece down the stretch, especially in the Big Ten Championship as he had 6 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns against Wisconsin.  Bowen has started 12 of 13 games this season, recording the fourth-most tackles (68) on the team.

USC is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last five January games.  The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six January games.  The Trojans are 4-1 straight up in their last five Rose Bowls, winning by 14, 14, 32 and 14 points.  Bet USC in the Rose Bowl.

15* Iowa/Florida Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +3

The Florida Gators are one of the most overrated teams in the country. It’s amazing they are still ranked 17th heading into the bowl season with how badly they were embarrassed when they took a step up in class late in the year. They simply took advantage of a down SEC East division, but this isn’t a good team.

That was evident with a 13-31 loss to Florida State and a 16-54 loss to Alabama in their last two games. The same thing happened to the Gators last season as they were blown out by both Florida State and Alabama, and then they went on to lose to Michigan 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl.

To the Gators’ credit, no team was hit harder by injuries this season than them. They will be a little healthier now going into their bowl game, but they are still missing a ridiculous amount of starters and will be nowhere near full strength. That’s why they should not be favored in this game.

Iowa, on the other hand, comes in underrated. The Hawkeyes underachieved this season after going 12-2 last year while making the Rose Bowl. But after their 5-4 start, they played their best football of the season down the stretch. They beat Michigan 14-13 as 24-point home dogs, shut out Illinois 28-0 as 8-point road favorites and dominated Nebraska 40-10 as 3-point home favorites. They should be getting more credit from oddsmakers with the way they finished.

Both of these offenses are limited in the passing game, but Iowa can at least run the football, while Florida cannot. The Hawkeyes averaged 172 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that only gave up 157 yards per game and 4.1 per carry on average. The Gators only managed 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that gave up 178 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Iowa closed the season by gaining 164 yards on the ground against Michigan, 262 against Illinois and 264 against Nebraska. Florida closed the season by giving up at least 219 rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. The Hawkeyes are going to be able to find plenty of success on the ground against this Florida defense, which is still missing several key players along the front seven due to injury.

I think the Hawkeyes will be very motivated for a victory here to end a four-game bowl losing streak, including the embarrassing 45-16 loss to Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year. And the Hawkeye fans travel as well as almost any team in the country to these bowl games, especially to warm destinations like Tampa, Florida to get out of the cold weather they’re accustomed to in winter months. It won’t be as much of a home-field advantage for Florida as most think.

Iowa is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 17 points or fewer in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games coming in. Plays against any team (FLORIDA) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 59-24 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Iowa in the Outback Bowl.