Winning Sports Picks

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3

If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.  But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.

Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win.  They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win.  They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them.  And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles.  So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.

Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game.  Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks.  The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season.  And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.

The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans.  But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter.  They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover.  Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.

When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost.  They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD.  They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now.  They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home.  They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.

While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns.  They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans.  Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers.  Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  

Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game.  That's a good sign he will be able to play this week.  And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week.  If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost.  The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have an elite offense and a suspect defense.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.  They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.

I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively.  But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense.  They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week.  They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.

The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total.  They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings.  The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13

The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games.  They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half.

Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State.  Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia.  They have a big home/away discrepancy.

Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers.  The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score.  He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

20* Phillies/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on St. Louis +111

The St. Louis Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th inning yesterday.  They were 93-0 in postseason history when having a 2-run lead or higher in the 9th inning.  Look for them to bounce back in a big way today.  They should not be home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2.

We have underrated starter Miles Mikolas against overrated starter Aaron Nola.  These starters have similar numbers, yet Mikolas is a home dog.  Mikolas has a 3.30 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 32 starts this season, while Nola has a 3.25 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 32 starts.

Mikolas has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.  He has held the Phillies to just 3 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Nolas has allowed 8 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.

The Phillies are 13-21 (-12.4 Units) in Nola's 34 road starts over the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 11-3 (+8.8 Units) in Mikolas' last 14 starts with a line of +125 to -125.  The Phillies are 3-12 (-10.9 Units) in Nola's 15 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both.  Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State.  They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week.  And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards.

Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm.  Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week.  Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point.  Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards.  And he's a better passer than Martinez.  The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs.  They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals.  They will hold Martinez in check this week as well.

Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close.  There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense.  They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army.  They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule.  They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10.  They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3.  Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them.  They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers.

Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot.  The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games.  They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win.  They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT.  They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State.  I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank.  They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face.

Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs.  Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home.

Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons.  They've only lost once by more than 17 points.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Take Army Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3

I love the spot for Louisiana Tech.  They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season.  They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game.  

The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play.  Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie.  Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses.  Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP.

This is a terrible spot for the Miners.  They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week.  That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them.  Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor.

Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10.  They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State.  Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game.  

To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense.  Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent.

LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -102

The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason.  They have gone 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They carried that momentum into their 2-1 Game 1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season.  They can't just turn on the switch now in the postseason.

Getting the hot Guardians and Triston McKenzie at basically even money is great value in Game 2 today.  McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 30 starts this season, 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in 13 home starts and 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts.  

McKenzie has a 2.25 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, both of which resulted in victories for Cleveland.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Rays.  That's a tall task to ask him to be in top form in such a short time with their season on the line today.  Take the Guardians Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cardinals UNDER 7

It will only be 62 degrees in St. Louis this afternoon and the forecast is calling for 10 MPH winds blowing in from left.  Runs will be hard to come by for both offenses against these two underrated starting pitchers in Game 1 of this series.

Jose Quintana is 6-7 with a 2.82 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals this season and has been a great comeback story.  Quintana has been at his best at home, going 4-4 with a 2.24 ERA in 17 home starts.  He is also 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA in his last three starts.  Quintana owns the Phillies with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts against them, including a 0.76 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.

Zack Wheeler is 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last three starts.  Wheeler also owns the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.41 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 22 innings.

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 7 runs or fewer in all five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -109

The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason.  They have gone 22-5 in their last 27 games overall.  They will carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-12 in their last 16 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season coming in.

Ace Shane Bieber is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Bieber is also 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in six career starts against the Rays.

Shane McClanahan lost his form in the second half of the season.  He is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 innings in 14 innings with only 7 K's.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against Cleveland this season on July 31st.  Roll with the Guardians Friday.

15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3

The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season.  They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4.  They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter.  The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL.  They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2.  The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards.  And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.

Now it gets worse for the Colts.  They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans.  It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%.  They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game.  I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.

The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players.  I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown.  They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss.  They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now.  They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did.  Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.

I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward.  They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play.  Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.

Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Broncos Thursday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -117

The Chicago Cubs are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  But they have lost the first two games of this series at Cincinnati, and I expect them to come back motivated to win the final game of the season and avoid the sweep.  They should be much bigger favorites when you consider how big their advantage is on the mound.

The Reds are just 6-19 in their last 25 games overall.  I'll gladly fade them and Graham Ashcraft, who is 5-5 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in his last three.  Ashcraft has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with an 11.92 ERA and 2.295 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 15 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in three starts against them in 2022 alone.

I'll gladly back Adrian Sampson, who is 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Sampson has done his best work on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  He has owned the Reds, going 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati this season.

Cincinnati is 4-19 after batting .200 or worse over a five-game span this season.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +180

The Seattle Mariners are now locked into their seed in the American League and will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays.  They won't care about winning this game.  Look for them to rest their starters, and they are throwing a gas can of a starting pitcher in Marco Gonzalez tonight.

I'll gladly fade Gonzalez, who is 10-15 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in his last three.  Gonzalez is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers, allowing 10 earned runs in 16 innings.

The Tigers have quietly gone 11-4 in their last 15 games overall with with eight wins as underdogs.  They should not be this big of dogs to the Mariners given the situation.  I also like what I've seen from Detroit starter Tyler Alexander of late.  He is 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 innings.  Take the Tigers Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Angels are 7-2 in their last nine games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.  Look for them to cap off their season with a blowout victory over the Oakland A's due to their advantage on the mound and at the plate.  The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in five of their last seven games overall.

Ace Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels.  He is 15-8 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 5-0 with a minuscule 0.86 ERA in his last six starts while allowing only 4 earned runs in 42 innings.  Ohtani is 4-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.930 WHIP nine career starts against Oakland, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two while pitching 14 shutout innings.

I'll gladly fade Ken Waldichuk and the A's.  Waldichuk is 1-2 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in six starts this season.  Oakland is 4-17 in its last 21 home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save.  The A's are 8-24 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +130

The San Diego Padres just clinched a playoff spot yesterday.  I'll gladly fade them here in this letdown spot as they are more concerned with resting up for the postseason in these final two games now.  They won't care at all about winning this game tonight.

I'll also gladly back the Giants, who have quietly gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and are trying to win games down the stretch.  The Giants also have the advantage on the mound with Carlos Rodon, who is 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 31 starts this season.

I'll gladly fade Sean Manaea, who is the biggest weak link in this San Diego rotation.  Manaea is 7-9 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Giants this season and has no business being this heavy of a favorite today.

Rodon's teams are an impressive 21-13 (+17.1 Units) as a dog of +125 to +175 in his career.  Roll with the Giants Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -110

The Milwaukee Brewers were just officially eliminated from the playoffs on Monday.  I don't expect them to show up at all today.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big advantage on the mound, and with the motivational factor in their favor, this is one of my favorite bets of the season.

Zac Gallen has pitched well enough to win the Cy Young this season.  He is 12-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 30 starts and one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Gallen has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.  He fired 7 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory over the Brewers in his lone start against them this season.

Eric Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Brewers.  Lauer is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Gallen has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 consecutive starts, and zero earned runs in 7 of those.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +150 (Game 1)

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with eight wins as underdogs.  The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series.  They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result.

I cashed the Tigers +220 yesterday, and I'm back on them today in Game 1 of this double-header with the pitching matchup even more in their favor.  Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.02 ERA in 16 starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Rodriquez also has a 4.02 ERA in 10 career starts against Seattle.

Chris Flexen lost his starting job at 7-9 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 21 starts this season, and 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in nine home starts.  Flexen is just making a spot start for the Mariners as they try to keep their rotation fresh for the playoffs.  That clearly shows they don't care about winning these games today.

Seattle is a woeful 19-22 (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher over the last two seasons.  Take the Tigers in Game 1 of this double-header Tuesday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +220

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall with seven wins as underdogs.  The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series.  They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result.

Bryan Gardia is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in three starts this season despite facing three playoff teams in the Guardians, Rays and Blue Jays.  I think he'll hold his own against the Mariners as well.  George Kirby has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Texas and Oakland.

Seattle is a woeful 8-10 (-11.8 Units) as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight during Game 1 of a series.  Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine games overall.  Take the Tigers Monday.

20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0.  Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams.  We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.

The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost.  They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7.  And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.

The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play.  They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game.  I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.

Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance.  But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm.  I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.

The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now.  The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won.  Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.

The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites.  And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12.  Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game.  Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker.  The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.

The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year.  So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.  They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins.  San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Roll with the 49ers Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Toronto Blue Jays can cover this total on their own Sunday.  They won 9-0 in Game 1 and 10-0 in Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox.  Look for them to crush Michael Wacha in this one as well.

Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  I don't expect the Red Sox to get shut out again today, so they will help contribute to this total as well.

The OVER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games following a loss.  The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Blue Jays last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for playoff positioning.  They have crushed the Red Sox 9-0 and 10-0 in the first two games of this series, respectively.  It should be more of the same today due to their advantage on the mound and the Red Sox lack of motivation, which has them just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.

Kevin Gausman is 12-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  I don't expect him to fully shut down the Red Sox, but I do expect him to be good enough to help the Blue Jays win this game by two runs or more.  Gausman is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts against Boston, allowing just 8 earned runs in 31 innings.  All five starts have come this season.

Michael Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.

Boston is 1-10 after scoring one run or fewer in a division loss this season and losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.  Toronto is 39-18 in its last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 45-17 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Toronto is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3

Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat the Bengals in Week 2.  And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.

Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks.  That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders.  Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.

The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game.  They couldn't do anything until garbage time.  Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion.  He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented.  And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

This Washington defense isn't any good, either.  The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense.  There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.

This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way.  The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important.  Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.

The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes.  Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it.  Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.

That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars.  Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson.  They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games.  They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.

Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks.  Pederson is a big reason why.  Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit.  Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line.  Pederson is working his magic with this offense.

Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season.  They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense.  They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season.  I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently.  No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.

I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week.  And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week.  They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week.  They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week.  They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week.  As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.

The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle.  All three of their games have been decided by one score this season.  If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.

I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense.  The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs.  They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week.  Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140

The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South.  Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going.  I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.

QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game.  Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries.  All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.

The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy.  Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before.  The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before.  The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable.  They are remarkably healthy.

The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC.  They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener.  I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone.  And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC.  They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.

I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad.  Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football.  New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23

It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in.  The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country.

They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes.  They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers.

Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17.  These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued.

I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason.  The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year.  They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison.  Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB.

Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2.  They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes.  The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams.  The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week.

Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good.  They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1).  Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average.

Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games.  The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country.  The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since.

LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites.  The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game.

QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico.  He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand.  He should be playing this week.  Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week.  RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well.  Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution.

While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock.  Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year.  The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri.  Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT.  Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game.

That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State.  LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout.  Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener.  Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week.

Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week.  Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good.  He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games.

Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992.  Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet LSU Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5

I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered.  The Trojans returned 18 starters this season.  They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards.  Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country.  They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.

They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs.  App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know.  And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week.

I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week.  That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.  The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too.  They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even.

Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition.  He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country.

You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky.  They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country.  They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay.  FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either.

I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season.  They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.  The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition.  It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes.  I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5

Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played.  These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket.

North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game.  FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game.

Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas.  The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game.  The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses.  They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB.

North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked.  I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it.  They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year.  This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season.

The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio.  They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor.  And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke.  It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats.  After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites.  Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams.

Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record.  They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State.

Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites.  And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19.  That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did.  I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games.

Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less.  Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -143

The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for wild card positioning and home-field advantage.  They blasted the Red Sox 9-0 yesterday and it should be more of the same today due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Ross Stripling is 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 23 starts this season for the Blue Jays.  He is 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 11 home starts as well.  Stripling is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this season, allowing just 6 earned runs in 20 innings.

Bryan Bello is 2-6 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Red Sox, including 1-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in five road starts.  Bello is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts against the Blue Jays this season, allowing  7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 innings.

Boston is 3-23 in their last 26 games when playing against a good team that wins between 54% and 62% of their games.  The Red Sox are 0-8 in Bello's eight starts vs. a team with a winning record this season, losing by 2.9 runs per game.  Bet the Blue Jays Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.  I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year.  Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point.

After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites.  I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward.  That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season.

Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers.  Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights.  That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week.

Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games.  Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season.  They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  

I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number.  Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen.  Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games.  Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB.  He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara.

Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season.  Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter.  Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well.  Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction.  LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable.

Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night.  Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively.  That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER.

Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season.  But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford.  UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado.

These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close.  UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State.

These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total.  This total is now 11 points higher than last year.  I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game.  Both teams are elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+116)

The Toronto Blue Jays should not be underdogs on the Run Line to the Boston Red Sox tonight.  They have a massive advantage on the mound in this one that should have them winning this game by two runs or more with ease.

Alek Manoah is 15-7 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 30 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his las three.  Manoah has never lost to the Red Sox, going 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 20 innings in three starts against Boston in 2022 alone.

Nick Pivetta is 10-11 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last three.  Pivetta is also 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 10 career starts against Toronto.  He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in six of his last nine starts against the Blue Jays.

Boston is 3-22 when playing against a good team that wins 54% to 62% of their games in the second half of the season this season and losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last eight games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  Toronto is 14-3 in its last 17 games following an off day.  The Blue Jays are 17-4 in the last 21 meetings.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars.  They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week.

Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell.  This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic.  Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane.

While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest.  The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State.  That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs.  And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win.

Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year.  No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston.  The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons.  They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021.  Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again.  This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more.

The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston.  Roll with Houston Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Mariners OVER 7

This total has been set too low for these two starting pitchers.  Jon Gray has good numbers this season, but he hasn't been able to figure out the Mariners.  Gray is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts against the Mariners in 2022, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings.

Marco Gonzalez is the worst starter in Seattle's rotation.  He is 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 30 starts, including 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings to the Royals and Angels.

This will already be the 6th start by Gonzalez against the Rangers in 2022 alone, so they are clearly familiar with him.  He is 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA in five starts against them this season, allowing 21 runs, 17 earned, in 29 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts against them.

The OVER is 13-2-2 in Mariners last 17 games during Game 3 of a series.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180

I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game.  I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher.  So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins.  They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see.  They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won.  They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo.  Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes.  That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.

It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals.  There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest.  Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.

The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either.  QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense.  DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable.  This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.

So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead.  In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards.  They lost due to committing five turnovers.  They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.

Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets.  Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.  And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start.  And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills.  The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.

While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year.  This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL.  They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year.  They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.

The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week.  The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team.  Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

After combining for 22 runs in Game 1 of this series, the Orioles and Red Sox came back for 22 more runs in Game 2 last night.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 with both bullpens absolutely taxed right now, and both lineups seeing the ball well.

Rich Hill is 7-7 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Hill allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings to the Orioles in his lone home start against them this season.

Dean Kremer has good numbers this season, but he has not been able to figure out Boston.  Kremer has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-0 in Orioles last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Red Sox last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Red SOx last four home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch to clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 14 games, making for an 11-3 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 29 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

The Yankees could cover this total on their own off Mitch White, sho is 0-6 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three.  Those have come against the Rays, Orioles and Cubs, so it's not like he is facing elite competition.

Gerrit Cole has struggled of late with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 7 homers in 17 innings.  Cole has not enjoyed facing the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 27-8-1 in Yankees last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers -122

The Detroit Tigers are coming on strong to finish the season.  They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  They should stay hot and pick up another win against the Kansas City Royals tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Matt Manning is 2-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Manning has been at his best at home, going 1-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in seven home starts.  He has never lost to the Royals, going 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in three career starts against them.

Daniel Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in his last three.  Lynch is also 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in five career starts against the Tigers.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Detroit in 2022.

Kansas City is 9-28 vs. starting pitchers that allow 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season.  The Royals are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Bet the Tigers Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (+110)

The New York Mets are coming up clutch down the stretch in trying to win the NL East.  They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  I'm shocked we are getting them as underdogs tonight on the Run Line against the lowly Miami Marlins.

The Mets have the advantage on the mound tonight with Carlos Carrasco over Pablo Lopez, and they certainly have the advantage at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 3.6 for the Marlins this season.  Carrasco is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 15 home starts this season.  Carrasco has never lost to the Marlins, going 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Pablo Lopez has decent numbers this season at 9-10 with a 3.93 ERA in 30 starts.  However, Lopez has never been able to figure out the Mets.  He is 3-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  Lopez has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 25 base runners in only 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mets this season alone.  

The Marlins are 3-25 as a dog of +150 or more this season and losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  This one will be over with early folks.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Orioles +115

The Baltimore Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet in baseball this season.  They continue to fight to make the postseason here down the stretch as they are just 3.5 games behind the Mariners with an outside chance of getting in.  

The Boston Red Sox have packed it in already and were just officially eliminated.  The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last six games overall and just gave up 14 runs to the Orioles last night.  They could care less about winning this game or any game the rest of the way, so they have no business being favored.

Kyle Bradish is one of the most talented young starters in baseball.  Bradish has been great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.639 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 20 1-3 innings.  Bradish held the Red Sox to just one earned run in 7 innings in his last start against them on September 11th.

The Orioles are 5-0 (+7.2 Units) in Bradish's five road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season.  Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.  We'll gladly back the more motivated team as an underdog tonight.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 13 games, making for an 11-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 28 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

Jose Berrios has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He just gave up 6 earned runs in 2 innings to the Rays in his last start.  Berrios is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in nine career starts against the Yankees.  James Taillon is no better than an average pitcher for the Yankees with a 3.90 ERA in 30 starts, including a 4.42 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

The OVER Is 9-1 in Taillon's last 10 road starts with a total set of 7.5 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 10-3 in Yankees last 13 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Yankees last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Blue Jays last 11 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +136

This is the perfect spot to fade the Cleveland Guardians, who are the hottest team in baseball.  They just clinched the AL Central with their win over the Texas Rangers on Sunday.  This is now a massive letdown spot for them, and I question their motivation the rest of the regular season.  They are probably fade material the rest of the way, especially tonight after just clinching.

The Rays still have something to play for as they are trying to clinch a wild card spot.  I know they will show up tonight, and I'll gladly back the underrated Corey Kluber as an underdog.  Kluber is 10-9 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 29 starts this season.

Kluber has never lost to the Guardians, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two career starts against his former team.  You know he gets extra motivated when he faces his former squad, and he will bring his best stuff tonight.  Shane Bieber has great numbers, but don't be surprised if he is on a pitch count as the Guardians play it safe with him heading into the postseason.

Amazingly, Tampa Bay is 13-1 in road games with a total set of 7 or less this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays do well when a pitcher's duel is expected, which is certainly the case in this contest.  Tampa Bay is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Roll with the Rays Tuesday.

15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1

The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0.  They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.  The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.

Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.  They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season.  I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game.  They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful.  They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful.  The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss.  They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play.  It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.

Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.  This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks.  They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week.  They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well.  Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.  The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas.  Roll with the Cowboys Monday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 12 games, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 27 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

Kevin Gausman has been at his worst at home, going 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Luis Severino is 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 17 starts this season, but the Blue Jays will get to him tonight.  Severino has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings for a 7.45 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Gausman's last 15 home starts with a total set of 7 to 7.5 runs.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Yankees last seven games overall.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

There is expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight at Yankee Stadium, which is going to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket.  I don't think we need the extra help as these are two of the better offenses in the American League, especially the Yankees.

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games overall, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 8-run total.

The Yankees are more than capable of covering this total on their own.  They will get to Brayan Bello, who is 2-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four road starts.  

The Red Sox have scored 4 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.  Nestor Cortes has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three career starts against Boston.  The Red Sox and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in each of their last five meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2

This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay.  The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries.  And it has gotten worse this week.  QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue.  He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.

The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable.  They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems.  They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells.  They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.

It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian.  The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season.  They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half.  The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.

Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago.  They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy.  They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember.  That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury.  They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.

The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did.  And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory.  They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.

The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs.  You know they have had this game circled all offseason.  The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week.  I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play.  Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon.  I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.

Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play.  They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home.  They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.  

This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already.  Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2.  He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt.  Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries.  They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.

Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -115

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the advantage on the mound today over the San Francisco Giants, who will be going with an opener in Scott Alexander before giving way to their bullpen.  This is a poor Giants bullpen with a 4.04 ERA and 1.375 WHIP on the season.

This is a play on rookie Drey Jameson of the Diamondbacks.  James is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings against the Dodgers and Padres.  Those are two of the best lineups in the National League, so shutting them down is no small feat.  He will certainly shut down this suspect San Francisco lineup, too.

The Giants are 9-26 as a dog of +100 to +150 this season.  San Francisco is 9-25 in its last 34 games following a loss.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -134

The Cleveland Guardians will clinch the AL Central with a win on Sunday.  It's safe to say they will be motivated to do just that, and to party tonight knowing they have tomorrow off.  They are so close they can taste it, and no team has been hotter than the Guardians down the stretch, going 15-2 in their last 17 games overall.

I'm not a huge Aaron Civale fan, but he is better than Cole Ragans of the Rangers.  Ragans is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Civale has owned the Rangers with a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings.  The Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +228

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1 of that series.

I successfully faded the White Sox in each of the first two games of this series with the Tigers +162 in Game 1 and the Tigers +168 in Game 2.  I'm not about to back off now with the Tigers at an even better price of +228 in Game 3 Sunday.  The White Sox cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number given their mental state, not even with Dylan Cease on the mound.

Tyler Alexander is coming off his best start of the season for the Tigers, pitching 7 shutout innings in an 11-0 victory at Baltimore as a +185 underdog.  Alexander has held the White Sox to 3 runs or fewr in five of his last six starts against them.  The Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games overall with all four wins as underdogs of +155 or higher.  Roll with the Tigers Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts.  This line would have been close to a PK to open the season.  So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football.  And even those two weeks are misleading.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers.  They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game.  They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.

The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats.  Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week.  Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset.  That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.

Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week.  They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled.  But both are back this week for Matt Ryan.  It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable.  Almost all  the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.

The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town.  And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere.  After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive.  Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.

Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.  He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season.  That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run.  The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game.  Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.

It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints.  That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards.  They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.

The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now.  Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return.  They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back.  That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away.  It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.

Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010.  There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall.  Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.  Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate.  The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.

The opener for the Patriots was also misleading.  It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate.  The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play.  That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.

The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary.  Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did.  The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.

It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score.  The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards.  So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise.  The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.

After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore.  The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer.  This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time.  They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +168

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1.

I successfully faded the White Sox yesterday and cashed in the Tigers +162 in Game 1 of this series.  I cannot believe the Tigers come back as +168 dogs in Game 2 given the terrible situation for the White Sox.  They simply aren't going to be motivated the rest the way now, and it has sunk in with them just how big of a disappointment they are.

I don't mind the pitching matchup for the Tigers, either.  Drew Hutchison has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA in six road starts this season.  Davis Martin is 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA in six starts for the White Sox, and 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in one home start.  Martin has no business being this big of a favorite today.  Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 6.5

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 21 of their last 25 games overall.  They will get to Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for 4-plus runs to do their part.

The Rays have scored 20 runs the past two days and are feeling good at the plate right now.  That's why I think they will get to Toronto's ace Alek Manoah.  The good news is they don't have to get much here as this total has been adjusted too much for Manoah with a total of just 6.5 runs.  Drew Rasmussen has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts, one of which came against Toronto on September 14th when he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings.

The Blue Jays and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in eight consecutive games coming in.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 6.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +157

The Dodgers are going to find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way as they already locked up the top seed in the National League and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That has shown in their play as they lost two of their last three to the Diamondbacks and should have lost all three after a blown save by Arizona.  They have scored just 6 runs total in their last three games.

The Cardinals still have something to play for as they are trying to wrap up the NL Central.  I think they have a much better chance of winning this game than this line would indicate, especially with Jose Quintana on the mound and their motivational advantage.

Quintana is one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 5-6 with a 3.04 ERA in 29 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three.  Quintana is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 10 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Dodgers, so few starters have had as much success against them as he has.

The Cardinals are 12-2 (+12.5 Units) in Quintana's 14 starts this season after allowing two earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts coming in.  St. Louis is 37-16 in its last 53 games overall.  The Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game against southpaw starters in 2022.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +162

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1.

Situationally, they cannot be this big of a favorite against the Tigers today.  Let alone with gas can Lucas Giolito going tonight.  Giolito is 10-9 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA In 18 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three while allowing 10 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.

Eduardo Rodriquez has been much better than Giolito this season.  He is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 14 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in six road starts.  Rodriquez has never lost to the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 7

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 20 of their last 24 games overall.  They will get to Jeffrey Springs and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for 4-plus runs to do their part.

The Rays scored 10 runs yesterday against the Blue Jays and should rake again tonight.  Mitch White is 0-6 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 0-3 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in eight road starts and 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Rays are more than capable of covering this 7-run total on their own again tonight.  

The Blue Jays and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in seven consecutive games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Astros/Orioles AL ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +132

The Houston Astros have nothing to play for the rest of the way and I expect it to show down the stretch.  They will consistently be too big of a favorite, just as they were yesterday when they lost as -180 favorites against the Orioles.  Now they come back as -150 favorites today, which is too high again.

The Orioles aren't going to pack it in until they are eliminated.  They have the advantage on the mound tonight, which is why they shouldn't be underdogs.  Dean Kremer is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA in eight home starts.

Kremer beat Jose Urquidy on August 27th in his only previous career start against the Astros.  He went 7 2/3 innings while allowing only one earned run in a 3-1 victory.  Urquidy allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to take the loss.  Urquidy is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 11 innings to the A's and Angels.

The Orioles are 13-5 (+11.4 Units) in Kremer's 18 starts this season.  Take the Orioles Friday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Dodgers UNDER 7

Runs will be very hard to come by in this matchup between two NL Cy Young contenders in Zac Gallen and Julio Urias tonight.  I really like this UNDER as both starters have been dominant this season and against these lineups.

Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Few starters have had as much success against the Dodgers as Gallen has.  He is 1-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings in his last two starts against them.

Urias is 17-7 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Urias has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 39 2/3 innings in those seven starts.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Gallen's last 11 road starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game in the 2nd half of the season.  The UNDER is 13-1 in Arizona's last 14 games vs. an NL team with a .430 slugging percentage or higher this season.  The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2.  But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be.  I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point.  And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.

The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards.  Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened.  The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.

You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener.  They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals.  That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good.  The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.

Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year.  He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL.  The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.

That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots.  The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night.  The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up.  The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.

If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky.  Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts.  He is averaging 6.2 per attempt.  Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.  He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week.  We'll take advantage.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia ML -125

The West Virginia Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  As a result of their poor record, they are grossly undervalued heading into this game with Virginia Tech.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on the Mountaineers as they are clearly better than the Hokies this season.

West Virginia lost 31-38 at Pitt in the opener in a game they should have won.  But they threw a fluky pick-six with the game tied late in the 4th quarter that bounced off a wide open receivers' hands and into a Pitt defender, who returned it for a TD for the difference.  They also outgained Kansas by 81 yards but lost in OT.  

Pitt went on to take Tennessee to OT, which is an impressive result.  Kansas went on to upset Houston, which is an impressive result.  So the level of competitive WVU has faced thus far has been very tough, and they should be 3-0.  USC transfer QB JT Daniels has injected life into this WVU offense.

Daniels is completing 64.4% of his passes for 743 yards with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He is leading a WVU offense that is averaging 46.0 points, 509.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The defense has been solid as well, holding opponents to 328 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.

Virginia Tech has been favored in every game this season and has played a very soft schedule.  The wins have come against Wofford and Boston College.  They failed to cover in a 20-point win over Wofford as 39-point favorites.  They beat a Boston College team that is way worse than most expected coming into the season.  And most concerning, they were upset by Old Dominion in the opener.

While West Virginia is a team on the rise in the Big 12 and with chemistry under fourth-year head coach Neal Brown, Virginia Tech is a team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Brent Pry.  They returned just 11 starters this season.  While the Hokies have a solid defense, their offense is pitiful as they returned only four starters on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just 23.7 points, 366.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season despite playing such a soft schedule.

The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-130)

The Seattle Mariners will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Oakland A's as -225 and -215 favorites.  They will have their revenge in blowout fashion in Game 3 today due to their advantage on the mound.

George Kirby is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 123 K's in 117 2/3 innings.  Kirby has owned the A's, going 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing just one earned run in 13 innings.

The Mariners will feast on Adrian Martinez, who is 4-5 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in four home starts.  Martinez allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Seattle this season back on June 30th.

Seattle is 30-10 in its last 40 games as a road favorite and winning by 2.4 runs per game on average.  The A's are 21-46 in their last 67 home games.  The Mariners are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/White Sox OVER 7.5

Both bullpens are taxed right now with the Guardians beating the White Sox 10-7 in 11 innings last night.  I'm confident both teams will have to dip into their bullpens early in this one because of the forecast, which is calling for 14 MPH winds blowing out to center in Chicago.

I know that both Triston McKenzie and Lance Lynn are pitching well right now, but they are both going to be susceptible to those winds blowing out to center.  The knock on both guys is they allow a lot of homers as McKenzie has given up 24 while Lynn has allowed 16.  McKenzie has allowed 17 homers in 99 innings on the road this season.

The Guardians are hot at the plate right now in scoring 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 21 runs in their last two games.  The White Sox are also hot at the plate, scoring 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games overall, including 18 runs in their last two.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Yankees OVER 7.5

The New York Yankees are absolutely raking right now at the plate.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are fully capable of covering this 7.5-run total on their own, which they've done in four of their last eight games.

The Pirates busted out for 8 runs against the Yankees last night and should have some success off Luis Severino.  He will be making his first start back from injury since July 13th.  Severino will surely be on a pitch count in this one.

The OVER is 13-3 in Pirates last 16 Wednesday games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven home games.  The OVER is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 games overall.  These teams combined for 17 runs last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Phillies Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 22 games overall.  They just combined for 29 runs with the Phillies in an 18-11 victory last night, and it should be more of the same tonight.

Zack Wheeler will be making his first start in a month as he returns from injury and will certainly be on a pitch count.  Wheeler has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Wheeler is 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays.  He faced Toronto on July 13th earlier this season when he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Kevin Gausman comes in struggling himself, allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays and Rangers.  Gausman is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in five career starts against the Phillies as well.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 MPH winds expected to be blowout out to center with temps in the 80's in Philadelphia.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all five games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -165

The Chicago White Sox on Tuesday represent my strongest release of the entire 2022 MLB season.  I absolutely love the spot for them and their massive advantage on the mound.  That combination should have them being more than -165 favorites over the Cleveland Guardians.

The White Sox had yesterday off, while the Guardians were completing a grueling five-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Monday.  It's now or never for the White Sox, who trail the Guardians by 4 games in the AL Central.  They will have a chance to win the division if they sweep this three-game series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.

AL Cy Young contender Dylan Cease goes for the White Sox.  Cease is 14-7 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 29 starts this season with a whopping 214 K's in 167 innings.  He has owned the Guardians, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while pitching 11 2/3 shutout innings.

We'll gladly fade Aaron Civale.  He is 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine road starts.  Civale has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in eight career starts against the White Sox as well.

The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and scoring 6.3 runs per game during this stretch, which has been one of their best stretches of the season.  Chicago is 8-1 in its last nine games vs. a starting pitcher with higher than a 1.30 WHIP.  I'll gladly back the rested team over the tired team with the much better starting pitcher tonight.  Bet the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season.  I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers.  But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.

That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers.  Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard.  They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.

The Eagles will not be easy to defend.  They are loaded on offense this season.  They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans.  They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.

Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1.  Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas.  Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.

The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2.  The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett.  I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters.  The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.

Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night.  When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL.  Cousins has always struggled in primetime.  He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.  The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least.  I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe.   Bet the Eagles Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +105

The New York Mets are trying to win the NL East.  They just came up clutch last series by sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates in four games and outscoring them 23-8 in the process.  I love getting them as underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

It's rare that you get the opportunity to back Max Scherzer as an underdog, so we'll take advantage.  Scherzer is 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He owns the Brewers with a 2.21 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.

Corbin Burnes is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Burnes has been a massive disappointment here down the stretch when the Brewers need wins to make the postseason.  He is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 30 1/3 innings.

Scherzer's teams are 22-2 in his last 24 road starts vs. an NL team with a .315 OBP or worse in the second half of the season.  Roll with the Mets Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+110)

The Baltimore Orioles are just 4 games back in the wild card with a legitimate chance to make the postseason still.  This team has no quit in them, and they finally get a break here with this series against the Detroit Tigers and I fully expect them to take advantage.  They'll win Game 1 in blowout fashion tonight.

The Tigers are 1-6 in their last seven games overall while hitting .165 and averaging just 2.1 runs per game.  Tyler Wells will shut them down, too.  Wells is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 22 starts this season.

The Orioles will feast on Tyler Alexander, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Alexander is 1-10 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Alexander has been at his worst on the road, going 0-7 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

The Tigers are 0-7 in Alexander's seven road starts this season with six losses by two runs or more.  Detroit is 1-12 in Alexander's 13 starts this season with 11 losses by two runs or more.  The Orioles are 8-1 in Wells' nine starts vs. a team with a losing record this season and winning by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Orioles on the Run Line Monday.

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10

This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog.  The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener.  That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.

The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week.  They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon.  The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards.  They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play.  They really had no business winning that game.

Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team.  This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday.  The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason.  Those were arguably their two best players.  Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.

Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week.  These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota.  Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.

This is a perfect spot to back the Packers.  Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates.  Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.

The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits.  Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified.  I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers.  The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.

Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team.  There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022.  They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.

The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here.  He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.

Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.  The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.

The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension.  They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well.  TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively.  They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency.  They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year.  While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener.  Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +135

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season and a great underdog bet.  They have a great starting staff, which is a big reason why, and now it looks like they found another diamond in the rough in Ryne Nelson after calling him up late in the season

All Nelson has done is go 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in two starts while pitching 13 shutout innings and allowing only 8 base runners with 13 K's.  The most impressive part about those starts is that they came against the Dodgers and Padres, two of the best lineups in baseball.  Now Nelson will shut down the Padres again today.

Yu Darvish has posted a 3.75 ERA in 15 road starts this season for the Padres.  Darvish has a 3.72 ERA in 15 career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks this season.

The Padres are 6-10 (-13.4 Units) in Darvish's last 16 starts as a road favorite.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +178

The Boston Red Sox have realized they won't be making the postseason here down the stretch and are just playing out the string.  The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall and have no business being a -200 favorite over the Kansas City Royals today.

Nick Pivetta is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  Pivetta has never beaten the Royals, going 0-1 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.954 WHIP In three career starts against them.  This is definitely more of a fade of Pivetta and the Red Sox than it is a play on Bubic and the Royals.

The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight Sunday games.  Roll with the Royals Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have two of the best lineups in the National League.  They should easily combine for 8 runs or more tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

Aaron Nola has not been sharp of late, going 0-1 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Braves this season.

Jake Odorizzi is the weak link in Atlanta's rotation.  He is 5-5 with a 4.15 REA and 1.281 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Odorizzi is 0-1 with a 9.52 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies as well.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Phillies last 10 road games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 33-16-5 in Braves last 54 vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.