Winning Sports Picks

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +165

Adam Wainwright is done after this season and is sitting on 199 career wins.  It's safe to say he and his teammates will be motivated to get him that 200th win tonight.  He pitched well at Baltimore in a 5-2 victory as a +170 dog to get his 199th win in his last start.  And I think he'll pitch well enough to give himself a chance tonight.

Wainwright has awful numbers this season, but now faces an opponent he always has success against.  He is 21-14 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 47 career starts against Milwaukee.  The Brewers have nothing to play for at this point as they are pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL Central.

Freddy Peralta just cannot figure out the Cardinals, going 1-5 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 1-4 with an 8.51 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis, allowing 23 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee is actually 4-10 (-13.2 Units) in its last 14 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 6.40 ERA or worse.  The Brewers are 4-10 (-9.3 Units) in Peralta's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The value is too good to pass up tonight given the situation.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* Phillies/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 11-2 in Braves last 13 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.  They just went for 18, 16 and 15 combined runs in three games at pitcher-friendly Miami over the weekend.

Kyle Wright is likely to get lit up again tonight.  He is 0-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in six starts this season.  Wright made his return to the rotation from a long absence on September 11th, allowing 6 earned runs in 3 innings to these same Phillies in a 7-5 defeat.

Zack Wheeler just faced the Braves in his last start and it did not go well for him.  Wheeler allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to Atlanta.  It should be more of the same tonight.

The OVER is 25-11 in Wheeler's last 36 starts with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on Carolina +3.5

I like backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  The lookahead line for this game was Saints -1.5, and now it has been bet up to -3 and -3.5 in some places.  That's plenty of line value to pull the trigger on the home underdog here catching 3 points.

Carolina's 24-10 loss at Atlanta was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Panthers actually held the Falcons to 221 total yards and outgained them by 60 yards and had 20 first downs compared to 13 for Atlanta.  But the difference was the Panthers lost the turnover battle 3-0.

That was a tough spot for rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut on the road in a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta.  I like his chances of playing much better at home in front of a rowdy crowd that will be on his side in anticipation of getting to see the top pick in the draft.  The Panthers rushed for 154 yards and 4.8 per carry against the Falcons, so they have the running game to take some pressure off Young.  They also are expected to get WR DJ Chark back from injury this week to give him another weapon.

The Saints beat the Titans 16-15 at home last week.  Ryan Tannehill gave that game away by throwing 3 interceptions in a game the Titans deserved to win.  Derek Carr was decent in his first start for the Saints, but they had no running game, rushing for 69 yards and 2.6 per carry.  Not having Alvin Kamara due to suspension is a big blow to this Saints offense.

Carolina is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a divisional loss by 10 points or more.  Carolina won both meetings with New Orleans last year despite being underdogs in both games, holding the Saints to 7 points at home and 14 points on the road.  They have this New Orleans offense figured out and I trust their defense to keep them in this game, while Young makes enough plays in the passing game for the Panthers to get the upset victory.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -112

I backed the Cubs in a similar situation against the Diamondbacks last series.  They lost the first three games of that series but took Game 4 to avoid the sweep.  After losing the first two games of this series to the Diamondbacks, I expect them to take Game 3 and avoid the sweep as well.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Jordan Wicks, who is 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in four starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in three road starts.  Two of those road starts came at two of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors as well in Colorado and Cincinnati.

Ryne Nelson is an absolute gas can for the Diamondbacks.  He is 7-8 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 2-5 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.948 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Nelson is 1-3 with a 10.69 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings.  Nelson has allowed at least one homer in nine of this last 10 starts, including 2 homers or more in five of those.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rangers/Guardians OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-2 in their last eight games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last seven games. The OVER is 12-2 in Rangers last 14 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 14 games.

Now the Rangers should get to Gavin Williams, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in nine home starts for the Guardians this season.  They Guardians should get to Cody Bradford, who is 4-1 with a 3.80 ERA this season with 20 earned runs and 8 homers in 47 1/3 innings.  Bradford will likely give way to Martin Perez, who is 9-4 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.458 WHIP this season while allowing 68 earned runs and 21 homers in 131 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Jaguars AFC No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3

I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as a legit Super Bowl contender this season.  While the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jets were getting all of the hype coming into the season, the Jaguars are the sleeper team that could win it all.  They will be out to prove that Sunday with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs coming to town.

The Jaguars also want revenge from two losses to the Chiefs last season.  They lost 27-17 on the road as 10-point underdogs during the regular season and 27-20 as 10-point road dogs in the playoffs.  They hung right with the Chiefs only getting outgained by 13 yards in that playoff meeting.  Now they get the Chiefs at home this time around.

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

The Jaguars also have playmakers all over the defense and held the Colts to 280 total yards and 4.1 yards per play.  They can more than hold their own on this side of the ball, and now they are very familiar with Kansas City's system having played them twice.  Travis Kelce may return this week from a knee injury, but he won't be 100% after sitting out the Detroit game.  Patrick Mahomes just wasn't comfortable with his receivers without him.

Everyone is on the Chiefs with over 80% of the bets and over 80% of the money just automatically assuming their going to bounce back.  I'll go contrarian here and back the Jaguars, who I have power-rated much higher than most this season.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for the winners and the losers, and I question Kansas City's motivation early in the season when these games don't matter as much.  I know we're going to get 100% effort from the Jaguars playing with double-revenge from last season after the Chiefs ended their season.

Plays on home teams (Jacksonville) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, a team that had a winning record last season are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983.  Kansas City is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents.  Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a divisional road win.  Doug Pederson is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach.  Bet Jacksonville Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 50.5

You could make the argument that the Jaguars have the most explosive offense in the NFL now.  They traded for Calvin Ridley in the offseason and he and Trevor Lawrence are already forming a great connection.  They beat the Colts 31-21 in the opener on the road.  Lawrence threw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one of which went to Ridley, who led the team with 11 receptions for 101 yards in the win.  Then there's Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram that teams are going to have to account for, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield.

As you already know, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and company.  Drops hurt them in their Week 1 loss to the Lions, plus the fact that they didn't have their best playmakers in Travis Kelce.  You can expect a much better offensive performance from the Chiefs in this one.

The Chiefs didn't have much problem scoring points against the Jaguars last season.  They put up 27 points in each of their two meetings.  No question the Chiefs will get their points again, but I now think the Jaguars have the offense to keep up with them in a shootout with the addition of Ridley.

Kansas City is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games played on a grass field, and we're seeing 65.5 combined points per game in this spot.  Andy Reid is 11-3 OVER in road games following a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Bears +3

This is a classic overreaction from Week 1 results.  Tampa Bay upset Minnesota on the road 20-17 as 4-point underdogs, while Chicago was upset at home by Green Bay 38-20 as 1-point favorites.  Now the Bucs are 3-point favorites over the Bears in Week 2 after the lookahead line had the Bears -2 for this game.  So that's a 5-point adjustment that's not warranted.

We all knew Minnesota would come back to the pack this year after going 11-0 in one-score games and actually getting outscored on the season last year.  But with that being said, the Vikings still should have won that game when you dive into the box score.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.

Baker Mayfield isn't all of a sudden the savior for the Bucs.  He hasn't won in this league, and he's not going to be a winner in Tampa Bay, either.  Mayfield's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite.  When he has expectations, he fails to meet them.  You want Mayfield in the underdog role with a chip on his shoulder.

Speaking of chip on their shoulder, the Bears will have that this week after a misleading 38-20 loss to the Packers in Week 1.  Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards by Green Bay in that game, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0.  The defense wasn't as bad as the 38 points would suggest considering they held the Packers to 329 total yards.

There is expected to be rain in Tampa Bay Sunday.  That's going to favor the team that wants to run the ball, which is the Bears.  They rushed for 122 yards and 4.2 per carry against the Packers.  The Bucs could only muster 73 rushing yards on 33 attempts against the Vikings, or just 2.2 yards per carry.  That's really poor when you consider the Eagles rushed for 259 yards and 5.4 per carry against the Vikings Thursday night.  The Bears held the Packers to 92 rushing yards on 32 attempts for 2.9 per carry.

Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in games played on grass over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road teams (Chicago) - off a home loss by 10 points or more in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 (91.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Buffalo Bills -9

The Buffalo Bills beat up on bad teams.  It's just what they do.  You know they are going to want to beat up on the Raiders Sunday to get the sour taste out of their mouths from blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Jets on Monday Night Football.  I think they lost their focus due to Aaron Rodgers going out with injury, and they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets.

The Bills could have simply kneeled and punted every possession in the 2nd half and won the game.  Instead, they committed four turnovers to give the game away, and Josh Allen made a bunch of mistakes that he doesn't normally make.  It's fair that he was rusty in the opener and playing an elite Jets defense that has his number.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against this soft Las Vegas defense and will be looking to make a statement.

I love backing 0-1 teams like the Bills coming off an upset loss against a 1-0 team like the Raiders coming off an upset win.  This line should be double-digits, but due to the overreaction from last week we are getting the Bills as single-digit favorites as a result.

The Raiders managed to upset the Broncos 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week.  The Broncos were playing their first game under Sean Payton and had some injuries, including their best WR in Jerry Jeudy sitting.  They made just enough plays to win that game.

I'm not a Jimmy Garoppolo believer.  He can't hang with Allen and the Bills in a shootout.  While Buffalo is almost fully healthy for this one, Las Vegas lost its No. 2 receiver in Jakobi Meyers to a concussion against the Broncos last week.  Their offense will be significantly hampered without Meyers as the Bills can simply focus on stopping Davante Adams.

Josh Allen is 16-1 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more in his career and his teams usually dominate in this spot.  He is 44-13 as a favorite overall with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game, and 27-7 as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5

Joe Burrow didn't play a snap in the preseason and it showed as he clearly wasn't himself against the Cleveland Browns last week.  Burrow went 14-of-31 for 82 yards while averaging 2.6 yards per attempt as the Bengals managed just 3 points against the Browns.  I don't think it will magically be fixed in one week.

The Ravens managed 25 points against the Houston Texans last week but that came on just 265 total yards.  Lamar Jackson is learning a new offense and it's going to take some time.  But the Ravens were great defensively limiting the Texans to 9 points and 268 total yards.

Clearly both defenses are ahead of the offenses right now, and I expect that to be the case again Sunday.  The Ravens are already decimated by injuries right now.  RB JK Dobbins suffered a torn achilles in Week 1, and OT Ronnie Stanfley, C Tyler Linderbaum and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play in Week 2.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 4th meeting between the Ravens and Bengals since Week 5 last year.  The first meeting saw just 36 combined points, the second meeting saw just 43 combined points, and the 3rd meeting in the playoffs saw just 41 combined points.  As you can see, all three meetings stayed well UNDER this 46.5-point total.  It should be more of the same given the circumstances in Week 2 Sunday.

Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine September games.  Zac Taylor is 13-3 UNDER in September games as the coach of Cincinnati, so his teams tend to start slow offensively but have been on point defensively.  Cincinnati is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games against AFC opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/Colorado OVER 59

The Colorado Buffaloes are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Deion Sanders.  They scored 45 points and put up 568 total yards against TCU and put up 36 points and 454 total yards against a good Nebraska defense.  But they allowed 42 points and 541 total yards to TCU and their defense is atrocious, allowing 6.2 yards per play through two games this season, including 6.2 per carry on the ground.

Colorado ranks 22nd in the country in seconds per snap at 22.9 seconds in between plays.  Now they face a Colorado State team that wants to go up-tempo as well ranking 4th at 19.2 seconds per snap.  The Rams look like a dead nuts OVER team after one game, too.

They lost 50-24 to Washington State while allowing 556 total yards to the Cougars.  Head coach Jay Norvell is an air-raid guy who led an explosive offense at Nevada.  Now he's in Year 2 at Colorado State and believes he has found his quarterback in freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.  He provided a spark against Washington State leading the Rams to 21 fourth quarter points.  He went 13-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt.

This is a National TV game on ESPN Saturday night.  You know both offenses are going to want to show out on prime time, and I don't think we'll have a problem getting up and OVER this 60-point total in a game between two fast-paced offenses against two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -101

The Chicago Cubs have lost four out of five to the Diamondbacks in two of their last three series.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today.  I like their chances of bouncing back due to their big advantage on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in nine road starts.  Hendricks is 5-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 10 career starts against Arizona.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in their lone victory last series.

Zach Davies is 2-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in 16 starts for the Diamondbacks this season while allowing a whopping 57 earned runs in 75 1/3 innings.  The Cubs are 27-6 in Hendricks' last 33 Saturday starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Wyoming +30

This is a terrible spot for Texas.  They finally got their validation with a 34-24 upset win at Alabama last week.  The Crimson Tide are clearly down this season and got terrible QB play.  Now the Longhorns have been getting patted on the back all week and complimented.  It's only human nature that they have a letdown.

This is also a sandwich spot for Texas with their Big 12 opener at Baylor on deck.  They won't be giving 100% effort here, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this massive 30-point spread against a Wyoming team that already upset a team from the Big 12 in Texas Tech.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 as 12-point dogs in the opener.  That's a Texas Tech team that gave Oregon all they could handle last week.  It was only human nature for Wyoming to have a letdown the next week, only beating Portland State 31-17 as 28-point favorites.  It was also a sandwich spot for them with Texas on deck.

Keep in mind Wyoming pulled its starting QB in Andrew Peasley up 21 in that Portland State game.  Peasley is healthy and ready to go against Texas, and he may very be the best QB of the Craig Bohl era.  He threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards and a score against Texas Tech in that opener.  He threw three more touchdown passes against Portland State last week and is a legitimate passer.  Wyoming is expected to get Northern Illinois transfer RB Harrison Waylee to make his season debut this week.  He rushed for 1,929 yards and averaged 5.2 per carry at NIU prior to coming here.

We saw Texas struggle to put away Rice in the opener in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  They even won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game and still couldn't cover.  Wyoming has a legit defense that returned 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 23.9 points per game last season.  In fact, Wyoming has now allowed 23.9 or fewer points in per in six consecutive seasons under Bohl.  They can hang in this game because of their defense and QB Peasley, plus the letdown factor for Texas.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Hawaii/Oregon CFB ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +38.5

The Oregon Ducks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 81-7 victory over Portland State in the opener.  Portland State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  The Ducks had no business covering against Texas Tech last week, winning 38-30 as 4.5-point favorites only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds when they were leading by 1 with the Red Raiders trying to get down the field for the winning field goal.

Now this is a massive flat spot for the Ducks.  They are coming off that huge road win over Texas Tech last week, and now they have the team that everyone in the country is talking about in the Colorado Buffaloes on deck.  They can't help but look ahead to that game, so I fully expect them to be disinterested in this game against Hawaii.  They will likely not try to pour it on in the 2nd half of this one, which will allow Hawaii to stay within the number.

Hawaii has been grossly undervalued dating back to the second half of last season.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points in those 11 games.  They deserved to beat Vanderbilt in the opener in a 28-35 loss as 17-point dogs.  They hung with Stanford in their second game, and they beat a very good FCS team in Albany 31-20 as 8-point favorites last week.  

They outgained Albany 379 to 239 for the game, or by 140 total yards.  They outgained Vanderbilt 391 to 297, or by 94 total yards.  Their defense is vastly improved this season allowing 315 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And their offense is learning the run and shoot system and has been solid in averaging 27.7 points per game.  QB Brayden Schager is loving the new system, completing 62.5% of his passes for 972 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Plays against any team (Oregon) - with a +0.75 or better turnover margin against a team with a -0.75 or worst turnover margin, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on Hawaii due to their poor turnover margin, and a good time to sell high on the Ducks due to their fortunate turnover margin up to this point.  This is a dead nuts sandwich spot for the Ducks, who won't cover this massive number as a result.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +41

The four teams that made the four-team playoff last year have really struggled to start the season in terms of covering spreads.  Michigan is 0-2 ATS, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS, TCU is 0-2 ATS and Georgia is 0-1-1 ATS.  That's a combined 0-7-1 ATS for playoff teams.

To me, this makes sense these teams would struggle to meet the massive expectations set forth by the media, the betting public and thus the oddsmakers.  Michigan literally hasn't scored enough points to cover either of its first two spreads.

The Wolverines beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites and UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites.  Now they are even bigger favorites against Bowling Green this week, and it's not warranted.  I love what I've seen from this Bowling Green team thus far to know that they can stay within this huge number as well.

Bowling Green brought back 13 starters this season from a team that went to a bowl game last year, including eight on offense.  They added former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak at quarterback.  He is completing 59.2% of his passes for 390 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

The opener against Liberty really caught my eye.  They only lost that game 34-24 despite five turnovers.  Liberty went on to blast New Mexico State 33-17 last week while outgaining the Aggies 526 to 339 in total yards.  Bowling Green came back and blasted Eastern Illinois 38-15 as 17-point favorites last week, gaining 509 yards in the win without a turnover and outgaining them by 184 total yards.

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country offensively.  They rank 128th out of 133 teams in seconds per offensive snap at 31.5 seconds.  Army, Navy and Air Force are three games that are slower than them.  Because they are so slow to snap the ball, the Wolverines get fewer plays in on offense making it very difficult for them to score a lot of points quickly.  Thus, it makes it difficult for them to cover these big spreads, as we've seen to this point.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Georgia Tech/Ole Miss Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgia Tech +19.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

King has been everything the Yellow Jackets had hoped for and more thus far at quarterback.  He is comlpeting 65.6% of his passes for 603 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  Cooley is averaging 7.6 yards per rush and Jamal Haynes is averaging 8.2 yards per rush.  Georgia Tech deserved to win the opener with a 39-34 loss to Louisville, blowing a 28-13 lead.  They came back with a 48-13 win over South Carolina State last week.

While Georgia Tech was blowing out its last opponent and resting starters in the 4th quarter, Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane and backup QB Kai Horton after Tulane star QB Michael Pratt was a late scratch.  This game was tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter, and was 27-20 with under two minutes to go.  Ole Miss got a 56-yard FG to go up 10, and then a 26-yard fumble return to win 37-20.

That misleading final is giving us great line value on Georgia Tech this week.  Ole Miss only outgained Tulane 363 to 342, or by 21 total yards.  They were in a dog fight with the Green Wave, and now they have their SEC opener on deck against mighty Alabama.  That makes this not only a letdown spot off the Tulane win, but also a lookahead spot with the Crimson Tide on deck.  

I think Ole Miss has the mentality that they can just show up and win this game after beating Georgia Tech 42-0 last year.  But this is a completely different Yellow Jackets team, and I expect them to be in this game for four quarters.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Akron/Kentucky CFB ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 49.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts UNDER team for years under defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops.  That isn't changing this season.  I have been disappointed in this Kentucky offense that has gotten a lot of hype in the offseason, but this Kentucky defense has saved the day.

Kentucky managed just 357 total yards against Ball State in the opener and scored just 28 points against lowly Eastern Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite last week.  Now they must face an Akron defense that is much better than they get credit for.

Akron has now allowed 28 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall with a high of 34 points in those eight games.  They allowed 24 points and 365 total yards to Temple in the opener and 21 points and 231 total yards to Morgan State in their first two games.  But they managed just 279 total yards against Temple and 262 total yards against Morgan State.  The Zips have been held to 28 or fewer points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Kentucky is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Kentucky) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against a team that committed five or more turnovers last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7

Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida.  Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001.  This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated.

This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana.  I actually like what I've seen from Florida thus far and felt fortunate to cash my Utah -6 ticket in the opener.  The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat.  The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week.

Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback.  Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense.  Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points.  That's an alarming result.

After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, I actually like what I've seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set.  Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener.

I like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay.  I think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week.  If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score.  This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons.  Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* North Texas/LA Tech CFB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 67.5

North Texas has the worst defense in the country.  They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to California in the opener and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International last week.  How bad were those performances?

Consider Cal score just 10 points and had 273 total yards against Auburn the next week.  Florida International managed 17 points against Louisiana Tech and 14 points against Maine in their two other games.  It's safe to say this North Texas defense is horrendous.

I was close to taking Louisiana Tech instead of the OVER in this game, but I think the OVER is the better bet.  Louisiana Tech is going to name their score, and North Texas does still have a pretty good offense and will be up against a very poor Bulldogs defense.

LA Tech allowed 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game in the first season under head coach Sonny Cumbie, who really only cares about offense.  They returned only four starters on defense from that team and are going to be terrible on D again.  They allowed 38 points to SMU two weeks ago and won 51-21 over Northwestern State last week.

North Texas beat LA Tech 47-27 last year for 74 combined points.  North Texas had 671 total yards while Louisiana Tech has 504 total yards.  The Bulldogs are much better offensively this season with transfer QB Hank Beachmeier plus eight returning starters on offense.

North Texas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  LA Tech is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Guardians OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last six games. The OVER is 12-1 in Rangers last 13 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 games.

Dane Dunning is 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts for the Rangers.  Dunning is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.  The Guardians hung 12 runs on the Rangers yesterday and should hang another big number against Dunning and company to help us get this OVER the 8-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/UNC Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7.5

I was on North Carolina -2.5 in their opener against South Carolina.  They won that game 31-17 and have been overvalued since.  They needed double-OT to beat Appalachian State 40-34 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  I love fading teams coming off overtime games.

Minnesota didn't deserve to beat Nebraska in the opener but squeaked out a 13-10 win in the final minutes.  The Golden Gophers were much sharper last week in a 25-6 win over a pesky Eastern Michigan team as 18.5-point favorites.  They outgained the Eagles 413 to 152, or by 261 total yards.

Once again the Golden Gophers clearly have an elite defense.  They are allowing just 8.0 points per game, 224 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The offense made some strides last week and should take another step forward this week after an ugly performance against Nebraska in the opener.

North Carolina is far from a defensive juggernaut.  They allowed 219 rushing yards to Appalachian State last week and 494 total yards overall.  The Golden Gophers want to run the ball as they average 40 rushing attempts per game and 176 rushing yards per game.  I'll gladly side with the more physical running team from the Big Ten up against the flashy offensive team in North Carolina from the ACC.

Minnesota reminds me a lot of Iowa.  They have a way of playing close games because of their style.  They can play a close game against a bad team just as easily as a close game against a quality team.  In fact, Minnesota has lost by more than 14 points just once in their last 28 games.  They have only four losses by more than one score in those 28 games.

PJ Fleck is 27-11 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Fleck is 9-1 ATS in road games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards as a head coach.  Fleck will come up with the right game plan to slow down Drake Maye and company.  He won't let Maye beat him over the top and the Tar Heels will have to work for everything they get.  I expect the Golden Gophers to control this game on the ground offensively as well.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Duke CFB ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +18.5

This is a 'buy low' spot on Northwestern and a 'sell high' spot on Duke.  The perception on Northwestern is way down early in the season after head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the offseason.  If you thought these players were going to lay down, you were mistaken.

The 24-7 loss at Rutgers in the opener doesn't look so bad now after Rutgers blasted Temple 36-7 last week.  Northwestern came back with a dominant 38-7 win over UTEP as a 1-point favorite last week.  That's a quality UTEP team that that won five games last year and brought back 15 starters this year and was expected to be a Top 2 team in Conference USA, just behind Western Kentucky.

Duke is overvalued now after upsetting Clemson in a misleading 28-7 win in the opener.  Clemson had 12 more first downs than Duke and outgained them by 48 yards.  That could prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.  Duke came back and failed to cover in a 42-7 win over Lafayette as 43-point favorites last week.  And now Duke is once again laying too many points this week against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are allowing 15.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  They brought back eight starters on defense and that is the strength of the team, while the offense cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago.  Transfer QB Ben Bryant has been solid this season and is a major upgrade at the position.

Plays against home teams (Duke) - a good rushing team averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game against a team that's averaging 100 or fewer rushing yards per game are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +9.5

The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season.  Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio.  Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and I expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset.

Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season.  They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win.  They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards.  Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense.

UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year.  I think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back.  I like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton.

Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) - a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas State/Missouri UNDER 48.5

The Kansas State Wildcats won 10 games and the Big 12 Championship last season.  They have picked up right where they left off last season with a 45-0 win over SE Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite and a 42-13 win over Troy as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Wildcats' front seven looks strong again as they have allowed just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.4 per carry through two games. That makes this a bad matchup for Missouri, which clearly relies heavily on the run to move the football.  After failing to cover in a 35-10 win as 27.5-point home favorites over South Dakota, the Tigers barely escaped with a 23-19 win as 21-point home favorites against Middle Tennessee State.  That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that lost 56-7 to Alabama as a 39-point dog in their opener.

Missouri averages 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 22.5 pass attempts per game thus far.  The Tigers struggled to move the football on the ground against lowly Middle Tennessee.  They rushed for just 112 yards on a whopping 46 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per carry.  They won't be able to run against this much stouter K-State defense, either.  K-State held Missouri to 94 rushing yards on 35 carries last year.

For all the offensive struggles Missouri has had through two games, their defense has been stout.  They are allowing 14.5 points per game, 240 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play.  This will be a big step up in class for this Kansas State offense after facing soft SE Missouri State and Troy defenses.  The Wildcats only managed 336 total yards against Missouri last year while holding the Tigers to 222 total yards.  Five turnovers in that game helped it get to 52 combined points, but that won't happen again.

Missouri ranks 92nd in seconds per play at 27.8 seconds while Kansas State is 52nd at 25.0 seconds per play.  I think the Wildcats will take a lot more time in between plays to snap the football in a hostile atmosphere in their first road game of the season.  Missouri will try and slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, too.

Missouri is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 Saturday games.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Missouri) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 16 or fewer points per game, in a non-conference game between two Power 5 teams are 34-6 (85%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Ohio UNDER 44

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons and are well on their way to that number or better again this season.  They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, 257 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against Northern Iowa and Iowa thus far.

The suspensions from the betting scandal hurt Iowa State's offense much more than their defense.  The Cyclones are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense.

Ohio looks like a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  They are averaging 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have been dynamite defensively, allowing 13.3 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  

These teams are a combined 5-0 UNDER this season with Ohio going for 33, 37 and 27 combined points with their three opponents, and Iowa State going for 39 and 33 combined points against their two opponents.  I see no way these teams to 45-plus combined points Saturday, which is what it's going to take for us to lose this UNDER 44 bet.

Iowa State is 11-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine non-conference games.  Matt Campbell is 14-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Mariners MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The OVER is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Mariners last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 games.  This total is too low for a game involving the Dodgers and Mariners and these two starting pitchers tonight.

Bobby Miller allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings to the Nationals and 4 earned runs in 6 innings to the Diamondbacks in two of his last three starts coming in.  George Kirby is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 20 base runners in 13 innings.

The Dodgers are 12-2 OVER after scoring one run or fewer last game this season.  The OVER is 12-1 in Dodgers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 13-1 in Dodgers last 14 games vs. a AL team hitting .260 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -130

The Chicago Cubs lost three out of four to Arizona before losing the last two to Colorado last series.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with the Diamondbacks.  They should be bigger favorites in Game 1 when you consider the massive advantage they have on the mound.

Justin Steele is among the NL Cy Young favorites at 16-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 27 starts.  Steele has been untouchable of late, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 21 innings with 26 K's.  He has owned the Diamondbacks with a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 2 earned runs in 18 innings with 25 K's.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings.  Pfaadt is 1-5 with a 7.30 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in nine home starts this season.

Arizona is 1-16 after scoring 4 runs or less in four consecutive games this season.  They have now been held to 4 runs or fewer in seven consecutive games while averaging just 2.3 runs per game during this stretch.  The Cubs are 13-2 in Steele's last 15 starts.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Astros/Royals OVER 9.5

Winds will be blowing out to center in Kansas City today with temps in the 70's.  The conditions are right for a slug fest between the Royals and Astros in Game 1 of this series.  Plus, neither of these starting pitchers can be trusted.

Zack Greinke is 1-13 with a 5.46 ERA in 23 starts for the Royals this season.  Greinke has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Houston.  He faced a Houston lineup that has scored at least 6 runs six of their last nine games overall, including 12 or more runs in four of those nine games.

Christian Javier is 9-3 with a 4.78 ERA in 27 starts this season, 4-1 with a 5.51 ERA in 15 road starts, and 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in his last three starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Royals in his lone career start against them.  He faces a Royals lineup that has scored a combined 18 runs in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* AL GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Rangers -116

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five consecutive games now.  They get to face a Cleveland Guardians team that has quit, going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and one that has nothing to play for the rest of the way.

The Rangers have a big advantage on the mound behind Jon Gray, who is 8-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Gray has done his best work on the road, going 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.

Lucas Giolito is an absolute gas can for the Guardians and pitching on his 3rd different team this season.  He is 7-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts this season with a whopping 36 homers allowed.  Giolito is 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

Giolito's teams are 1-11 in his last 12 starts overall.  Giolito's teams are 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* Rangers/Guardians AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have come up clutch in their last two series going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 6 runs in five consecutive games now.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own.

Lucas Giolito is an absolute gas can for the Guardians and pitching on his 3rd different team this season.  He is 7-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts this season with a whopping 36 homers allowed.  Giolito is 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

Giolito allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Rangers in his lone start against them this season.  The OVER is 4-1 in his five career starts against Texas.  I don't expect Jon Gray to be perfect for the Rangers.  He did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings in a 12-4 victory over the Guardians in his lone career start against them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Gray's three previous starts against Cleveland.

The OVER is 11-1 in Rangers last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Red Sox/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0 in Blue Jays last four games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all four.  The OVER is 21-5-1 in Red Sox last 27 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 22 of those 27 games and 9 or more combined runs in 23 of them.

Jose Berrios is 10-10 with a 3.63 ERA in 29 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Berrios is 2-6 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed 12 earned runs, 6 homers and 24 base runners in 17 innings in three starts against the Red Sox in 2023 alone.

Bryan Bello is 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 2.056 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays, all of which have come over the past two seasons.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 37 base runners in 18 innings in those four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Army +9

The weather is going to favor Army in this one.  There is a 60% chance of rain with 13 MPH winds forecast for this game at UTSA Friday night.  I'll gladly side with the triple-option team in Army against a UTSA team that relies heavily on throwing to move the football given these conditions.

I also think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites last week.  Due to the nature of that blowout, they were able to rest some starters in the second half and remain fresh for this game that will be played on a short week.  That will be a big advantage for a team that returned 17 starters from last year and is loaded again this year.

UTSA has been massively disappointing thus far.  They may finally start coming back to the pack after several successful seasons in a row.  The Roadrunners were upset 17-14 by Houston in their opener.  That's a Houston team that just lost outright to Rice last week, so that loss looks even worse now.  Then last week UTSA only beat Texas State 20-13 as 14-point home favorites in a lackluster performance.

Based on what I've seen from UTSA thus far, they have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against Army.  UTSA also has a hobbled quarterback in Frank Harris, who was seen in a walking boot this week.  Even if he goes he won't be 100%, and that could help explain how they only managed 20 points last week against a pitiful Texas State defense.

Army wants revenge from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA as 2.5-point underdogs last year.  They gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 2-0.  Army won 28-16 at UTSA in 2020 and 31-13 at UTSA in 2019.  They have pretty much owned this head-to-head series, and I expect them to have a great shot to win this game outright Friday night.

UTSA is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 home games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  UTSA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Army) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play last game, with an inexperienced QB as a starter in the first month of the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Army Friday.

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Minnesota +7.5

Two teams coming off misleading finals square off Thursday night.  The Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Tampa Bay Bucs 20-17 as 4-point favorites when they had no business losing that game when you dive into the box score.  The Philadelphia Eagles won 25-20 at New England to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a game they had no business winning when you look at the box score.

Backing 0-1 SU & 0-1 ATS against 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS in Week 2 is a winning proposition.  It's simply fading public perception and overreactions from Week 1.  The Vikings are much better than their final score showed against the Bucs, while the Eagles aren't nearly as good as their final score showed against the Patriots.

The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369 to 242, or by 127 total yards.  They also outgained the Bucs 5.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 2.3 yards per play.  They were dominant on the field, but their three turnovers proved costly as the Bucs didn't turn it over once.  The Vikings look to have an improved defense this year, which is something they have been missing.  And the offense is as explosive as ever.

The Patriots basically handed the Eagles two touchdowns with a 70-yard interception return TD and another turnover that set up a short field only minutes later.  The Eagles led 16-0 in a blink of an eye in the first quarter.  But the Patriots were the much better team for the final three quarters.

The Patriots outgained the Eagles 382 to 251, or by 131 total yards.  The Patriots outgained the Eagles 4.9 yards per play to 4.1, or by 0.8 yards per play.  The Eagles struggled to get anything going offensively, and now that teams have film on Jalen Hurts he might not be nearly as good as he was last year.  Hurts only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush and was sacked three times.

The Vikings want revenge from a 24-7 loss on primetime to the Eagles last year.  That was a rare game decided by more than one score for the Vikings.  In fact, 13 of their last 17 games have been decided by one score dating back to last season.  LB Dean is out for the Eagles, CB Bradberry is doubtful, and DT Cox is questionable to really make their defense short-handed.  The Vikings are nearly fully healthy for this one.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* Rays/Orioles AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last seven games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in their last 11 games overall. This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Orioles right now.

The Rays are hot at the plate as well scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They should get to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay and just cannot seem to figure them out.

Aaron Civale is faltering coming into this one allowing 7 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Civale has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore, so he cannot seem to figure out the Orioles either.

The OVER is 9-1 in Civale's last 10 September starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8

The OVER is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 games.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Rangers, who have scored 35 runs in their last four games and are averaging 5.5 runs per game this season.

The Blue Jays are scoring 4.6 runs per game and should get to Nathan Eovaldi and this Texas bullpen.  Eovaldi has been relegated to opener duty due to injury.  When he exits, the Texas bullpen has a 4.88 ERA this season.

Kevin Gausman has been solid this season, but not even he can slow down this Texas lineup at this point.  Gausman has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

Texas is 41-24 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  The Rangers are 9-1 OVER following a shutout victory this season.  Toronto is 14-4 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs per game per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Padres/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in six consecutive games and the OVER is 7-0-1 in their last eight games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 31 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all five.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 17 games overall.

With how hot both offenses have been, the books are giving these two starting pitchers too much respect.  Blake Snell is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young right now, and the Dodgers would love nothing more than to get to him and hurt his chances.  Ryan Pepiot has good numbers in limited action for the Dodgers, but this is a big step up in class for him here.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8

The OVER is 9-1 in Rangers last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving the Rangers, who have scored 25 runs in their last three games and are averaging 5.5 runs per game this season, including 6.0 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

The Blue Jays are scoring 4.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season and should get to lefty Jordan Montgomery, who is really struggling of late.  Montgomery is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Yusei Kikuchi is also getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 28 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts.

Texas is 40-24 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  Toronto is 13-4 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs per game per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Phillies OVER 9

The Phillies are hot at the plate right now scoring at least 4 runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall, including 5 runs or more in 11 of those contests.  The Braves have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games, including 5 runs or more in eight of those contests.

Spencer Strider commands a lot of respect every time he takes the mound.  But he is getting too much of it here.  Strider is 16-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts this season.  He has really struggled in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Strider has also allowed 8 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies.  Christopher Sanchez has been solid for the Phillies this season, but he hasn't had to face the potent Braves yet.  I expect Atlanta to get to him, too.  

The OVER is 8-1 in Braves last nine games overall.  The OVER is 10-5 in Phillies last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings in this series with 18, 12 and 13 combined runs.  It will be more of the same today.  Philadelphia is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games vs. NL teams with a .440 slugging percentage or better.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Orioles OVER 10

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last six games overall.  The OVER is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Cardinals have been hot at the plate themselves.  They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 7-3 in those 10 games.

Drew Rom is an absolute gas can for the Cardinals.  He is 0-2 with a 7.79 ERA and 2.018 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Kyle Gibson is a gas can for the Orioles as well, going 14-8 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 12 home starts.

The OVER is 20-4 in Gibson's last 24 home starts in September.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in five consecutive games and the OVER is 6-0-1 in their last seven games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall while scoring a total of 29 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all four.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 16 games overall.

Lance Lynn is an absolute gas can for the Dodgers.  He is 10-11 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 28 starts this season while allowing a whopping 40 homers.  Lynn has allowed 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts for a 15.00 ERA.

Michael Wacha recently returned from injury and has not been very sharp.  He is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 27 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Wacha cannot figure out the Dodgers, going 3-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.

Lynn is 9-1 OVER vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game this season.  The OVER is 20-8 in Lynn's 28 starts this season.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -173

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for a playoff spot and to stay alive in the NL Central.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-17 in their last 20 games overall to fall to 51-92 on the season and simply just going through the motions right now waiting for the season to be over.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Cubs today.

I also like what I've seen from Chicago starter Javier Assad, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in four road starts.  The Cubs have a massive advantage on the mound in this one.

This is more of a fade of Chris Flexen than anything.  Flexen has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, going 1-7 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in 12 starts while allowing a whopping 50 earned runs and 17 homers in 56 innings.  Flexen faced the Cubs earlier this season, allowing 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 14-9 defeat.

Colorado is 2-19 vs. NL teams that average 5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Orioles OVER 10

The Baltimore Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own, again.  They have scored 10 runs or more in four of their last five games overall.  The OVER is 9-0 in their last nine games overall and that streak will extend to 10 straight overs today.

The reason I say they are capable of covering this total on their own is not only because they are hot at the plate, but now they get to face one of the worst starters in all of baseball.  Adam Wainwright is 3-11 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 2-4 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.905 WHIP in nine road starts.

The Cardinals have been hot at the plate themselves.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in those nine games.  They should be able to get to John Means, who will be making his first start of the season for the Orioles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.  The San Diego Padres are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall while scoring a total of 18 runs themselves and going for 12 or more combined runs in all three.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 12 of their last 15 games overall.

Two gas cans go tonight for these teams.  Gavin Stone is 0-0 with a 14.40 ERA and 3.000 WHIP as a starter this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings for the Dodgers.  Pedro Avila is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 12 runs, 7 earned, and 31 base runners in 18 innings.

The Dodgers are 20-5 OVER in their last 25 games following two consecutive games where they stranded 10 or more base runners.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -166

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for a playoff spot and to stay alive in the NL Central.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-16 in their last 19 games overall to fall to 51-91 on the season and simply just going through the motions right now waiting for the season to be over.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Cubs today.

I also like what I've seen from Chicago starter Jordan Wicks, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in three starts this season.  He'll be opposed by lefty Kyle Freeland, who is 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  The Cubs are hitting .270 and scoring 5.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Freeland allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Cubs in his last start against them.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5

The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now.  They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb.  The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.

The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason.  The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1.  The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list.  Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there.  The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times.  Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013.  Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.  Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5

The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game.  That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.  They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.

I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat.  I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term.  The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength.  They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week.  RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout.  The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.

Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year.  They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt.  The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.  The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -129

I love the spot for the Chicago Cubs today.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, including the last two by a single run.  I like their chances of getting the job done in Game 4 with their advantage on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks is 5-7 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Cubs.  Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in nine career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He'll be opposed by Brandon Pfaadt, who is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 52 earned runs and a whopping 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 2-14 in its last 16 road games after allowing 4 earned runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  The Cubs are 27-7 in Hendricks' 34 career home starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* Diamondbacks/Cubs NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

After two pitcher's duels in a row in this series between Steele/Kelly and Taillon/Gallen, this total has been set lower than it should be.  The quality of the two starting pitchers Sunday is much lower, especially for the Diamondbacks.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 52 earned runs and a whopping 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings for Arizona.  Kyle Hendricks has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 11 starts.  Hendricks allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings to the Diamondbacks in his last start against them, which came at home.

Hendricks is 15-4 OVER in his last 19 home starts as a favorite.  The weather looks good for scoring with less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's this afternoon at hitter-friendly Wrigley FIeld.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Astros OVER 10

The Astros and Padres have combined for 12 and 13 runs in the first two games of this series.  It should be more of the same Sunday.  The Padres have now scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games overall and 4 or more in seven of those.  The Astros have scored a total of 48 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.6 runs per game.  

Matt Waldron is 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA this season for the Padres allowing 11 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings.  JP France has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts coming in for the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Braves OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball hitting .276 and scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall and 14 of their last 18 games overall.

Luis Ortiz is an absolute gas can for the Pirates.  He is 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 9.24 ERA and 2.370 WHIP in his last three, allowing 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 30 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.

Allan Winans has struggled in his three starts for the Braves, going 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in three starts.  Winans allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Mets in his last start coming in.

Atlanta is 22-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  Pittsburgh is 9-0 OVER vs. good teams outscoring opponents by one or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons will contend for a NFC South title this year.  Desmond Ridder got his feet wet at the end of last season and is now familiar with the offense and ready to hit the ground running in 2023.  They drafted RB Bijan Robinson, who will be an impact player right away and the Falcons should challenge for leading the league in rushing this year.  Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two solid weapons on the outside.

After being ranked dead last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons, upgrading the pass rush was a necessity this offseason.  They did just that by adding DE Calais Campbell, LB Bud Dupree and DT David Onyemata, who along with Grady Jarrett will wreak havoc in opposing backfield this season.

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible in the preseason even when starters were out there against opposing teams' backups.  No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line.  RB Miles Sanders and WR's DJ Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall are highly questionable to play Sunday with injuries.  And the defense doesn't generate any pressure with the exception of LB Brian Burns, who is holding out waiting for a contract extension.  What a me

Atlanta should control this game from start to finish by using long, extended drives on the ground to wear out this Carolina defense.  I like the additions they made this offseason to upgrade their front seven defensively, so they should be able to manhandle this weak Carolina offensive line and make life very difficult on Young.  No. 1 picks at QB making the first start of the season are 0-13-1 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 tries.  The last No. 1 pick to win their first start was David Carr way back in 2002.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cleveland +3

Deshaun Watson shook off some rust last season after returning from an 11-game suspension.  He should hit the ground running in 2023 now that he has two years in the system.  He has one of the best running games to rely on so he doesn't have to be the guy he was in Houston, though he is still capable of being that guy when they need him to.

Speaking of rust, the Cincinnati Bengals could be rusty with Joe Burrow returning from injury.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start.  I also expect the Browns to win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one as they have the better offensive and defensive lines, and you know the Dawg Pound will be rocking for the season-opener, providing them with a big home-field advantage.

This Cleveland defense was a disappointment last year, but they had some major upgrades this offseason.  They signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who is an excellent run-stuffer and can rush the passer.  They also signed another former Viking in DE Za'Darius Smith, who collected 10 sacks for Minnesota last year.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last five home meetings with Cleveland, including a 32-13 win as 3-point home underdogs last year.  They rushed for 172 yards in that win and outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 yards in that home win.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* 49ers/Steelers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +2.5

No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They went 3-0 winning all three games by double-digits while outscoring the opposition 78-32.  Kenny Pickett is ready to go after getting his feet wet as a rookie last year.  He has some great weapons on the outside and is quickly forming a great chemistry with George Pickens.  The Steelers have a great offensive line and solid running game with Najee Harris.

But the strength of the Steelers is their defense, and they have been a different beast when TJ Watt has been healthy.  They went 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS with Watt on the field last year and ranked 6th against the pass, while they were 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. I think their defense will give Brock Purdy and this average 49ers offensive line fits.  Remember, Purdy is coming back from offseason elbow surgery, so he could show some rust.  And I think having game film on him now gives Mike Tomlin a big edge to try and take away his strengths and make Purdy make mistakes.

Speaking of importance of pass rushers, Nick Bosa is holding out to try and get a new contract.  He and Watt may very well be the two best pass rushers in the game right now.  The 49ers lost to the Falcons without Bosa last year, and badly.  San Francisco's weakness defensively is the secondary, and that will get exploited if Bosa isn't on the field.  Watt will have his way against the 49ers who will be starting a new tackle.

The 49ers are notorious slow starters under Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in Week 1.  They were upset by the lowly Chicago Bears on the road last season.  This is only the second time the Steelers have been home underdogs in Week 1 since 2000.  Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three Week 1 games, including an upset win at Buffalo last year.  The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Another year, another chance for the betting public to disrespect Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans.  He and the Titans do the best work when they are counted out, and it looks like they are being counted out again in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.

Ryan Tannehill is entering a contract year and has plenty of motivation.  Henry just keeps on ticking and had 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year despite missing his starting left tackler for all but one game.  They signed former first-round pick Andre Dillard to replace Tayler Lewan while also drafting LG Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick to upgrade the offensive line.  They signed DeAndre Hopkins at receiver to make a nice 1-2 punch with the talented Treylon Burks on the outside.

The Titans have a great defense led by Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teir Tart up front, and a stellar safety tandem in Kevin Byard and Armani Hooker protecting the back end.  The pass rush gets a big boost with the return of Harold Landry, who tore his ACL in late August last year and didn't play a single snap in 2022.  He had 12.5 sacks in 2021.

Derek Carr will be making his first start with a new team behind a shoddy offensive line.  Alvin Kamara won't be available as he serves a four-game suspension, and the Saints just haven't been nearly as explosive without their dynamic back on the field.  The New Orleans Saints lack a pass rush defensively, and the Titans have the big coaching advantage with Vrabel over Dennis Allen, especially with all offseason to prepare for this game.

Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite as a starting quarterback.  Allen is 15-38 SU & 21-31-1 ATS as a head coach.  New Orleans is 6-9 SU at home over the past two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Auburn/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The Auburn Tigers now have the head coach they have been looking for in Hugh Freeze.  He has won everywhere he has gone, including Liberty.  His offenses are some of the best in the country every season, and he is already working his magic at Auburn.

The Tigers racked up 59 points and 497 total yards on UMass in the opener in a game that saw 73 combined points.  Now they face an explosive Cal offense that just put up 58 points and 669 total yards against North Texas in a game that saw 79 combined points.  I don't think we'll have a problem seeing more than 54 combined points in this matchup given what we've seen thus far.

The misconception that Cal is a defensive team is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Cal gave up 27.8 points and 429 yards per game last season.  After having just four starters back on offense last year, the Golden Bears have eight starters back on offense this season including a very good QB in NC State transfer Ben Finley.  They returned their leading rusher and leading receiver, plus four starters and 92 career starts on the offensive line.

The new offensive coordinator is Jake Spatival, who was the Texas State had coach the last four years and ran a wide open, up-tempo system with them that he has brought to California.  That coaching hire is getting overlooked as this appears to be Cal's best offense of the Justin Wilcox era.  He is finally embracing offense because being defensive-minded has not worked for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Guardians/Angels OVER 8.5

Both the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels should have a lot of success at the plate tonight against these two gas cans.  I expect both starters to have to exit this one early to pave the way for two poor bullpens as well.

Lucas Giolito is 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 3-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Giolito has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 8 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in two starts against the Angels in 2023.

Tyler Anderson is 5-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Anderson has been rocked in his last three starts, going 0-1 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.675 WHIP while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  Anderson allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings in his lone start against Cleveland in 2023.

The OVER is 43-24 in Anderson's last 67 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +31

The Florida State Seminoles may very well be national title contenders this season.  But this is a great spot to fade them.  We'll 'sell high' on them after their 45-24 win over LSU on Sunday which was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  They only outgained LSU by 34 yards and 0.3 yards per play.  Now the Seminoles are working on a short week and this is a massive letdown spot off the LSU win, plus a sandwich spot with their ACC opener against Boston College on deck.

Southern Miss is good enough to stay within 31 points of Florida State even if this wasn't a letdown spot.  Will Hall is one of my favorite head coaches to back in the country.  He got the Golden Eagles to a bowl game in just his second season last year, and they delivered with a 38-24 win over Rice.  They didn't lose a single game by more than 28 points last year, and three of their six losses came by a single score.

Now the Golden Eagles welcome back 15 starters this season including RB Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns last season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  The Golden Eagles have an upgrade at quarterback in Billy Wiles after not getting much out of the position the last few years.  Wiles completed 21-of-28 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State as 24-point favorites in their opener.  The defense is a strength after allowing 23.5 points per game last year, and they held Alcorn State to just 226 total yards in the win.

Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/Rice Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Rice held their own in a 37-10 loss at Texas in the opener as 35.5-point underdogs despite losing the turnover battle 3-0.  They got the cover against one of the best teams in college football, and now they take a big step down in class here against Houston.

Rice will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 34-27 as 17.5-point dogs at Houston last year.  They were only outgained by 3 yards against Houston last year and easily could have won.  I like their chances to cover in the rematch considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.

Houston had a misleading 17-14 win over UTSA in the opener.  They only had 339 total yards while giving up 417 yards to UTSA, but won the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  They were outgained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play for UTSA.  They won't be so fortunate against Rice this week.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Owls are 52-30 ATS in their last 82 games as home underdogs.  Holgorsen is 5-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Houston.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +3

Wrong team favored here.  UConn dealt with a ton of injuries last year yet still made a bowl game.  They went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven regular season games before losing to Marshall in the bowl game.  They returned 17 starters from that team and have much better health this season.  Jim Mora is already putting his stamp on this program.

UConn was impressive in a 14-24 loss as 14.5-point dogs to NC State in the opener.  They gained 5.2 yards per play on offense and only allowed 5.1 yards per play on defense.  NC State gained 364 yards on 72 plays, so that performance from the defense was special.

The Georgia State Panthers are going the wrong direction.  They fell to 4-8 last season and gave up 31.2 points per game.  They only return 12 starters this season including five on defense.  They lose their best playmaker in WR Jamari Thrash, who caught 61 balls for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Their next-leading receiver caught just 22 balls for 379 yards and six scores.

Georgia State's opener against FCS Rhode Island was very concerning.  They were lucky to win that game 42-35 as 17.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 96 yards by Rhode Island, giving up 520 yards and 6.9 per play defensively.  UConn is going to score at will on this defense, and I expect the Huskies to get more stops than Georgia State does.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State made a bowl game in Jerry Kill's first season with the program last year.  They returned 13 starters this season and should be 2-0, but their misleading 41-30 loss to UMass is keeping them flying under the radar.  They outgained UMass 458 to 389 in that game, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  The Aggies responded with a 58-21 win over Western Illinois as 21.5-point favorites to play up to their potential, outgaining them 651 to 251 for the game, or by 400 total yards.

Liberty just lost the most profitable ATS coach in the country in Hugh Freeze.  Now the Flames are in rebuilding mode in the first year under head coach Jamey Chadwell.  The cupboard is bare with just eight returning starters.  Liberty is getting too much respect for covering as 8-point favorites in a 34-24 win over Bowling Green in the opener.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the week as Bowling Green should have won outright, but they committed five turnovers and lost the turnover battle 5-1.  Remember, New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 last season.  They outgained them by 115 total yards in that game and will certainly give the Flames a run for their money again this year.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 10

There are expected to be nearly double-digit winds blowing out to left in Boston today that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in 15 of their last 18 games overall.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last six games overall.

Chris Sale is 6-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Sale has not enjoyed facing the Orioles this season, going 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 8 innings in two starts against them.

Jack Flaherty is 8-8 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 25 starts between the Orioles and Cardinals this season.  He has not been sharp at all of late, going 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 6-1 in six meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season.  The OVER is 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  The OVER is 12-4 in Flaherty's 16 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Sale's last 11 starts vs. good teams that are outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX No-Brainer on Iowa State +4

Everyone wants to fade the Iowa State Cyclones early in the season due to the suspensions from the sports betting scandal.  They opened as 20-point favorites against Northern Iowa and were bet down to -7.  All that sharp money and steam lost as Iowa State won 30-9.

I know they were outgained for the game, but keep in mind Northern Iowa ran 27 more plays than they did.  The more telling stat is Iowa State averaged 5.6 yards per play while Northern Iowa only averaged 3.9 yards per play, so the Cyclones outgained them by 1.7 yards per play.

The suspensions didn't hurt Iowa State defensively as they have one of the best defenses in the country.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons.  Northern Iowa QB Theo Day is expected to be one of the best QB's in FCS after having a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last year.  They held him to 16-of-34 passing and intercepted him twice.

Iowa was a 24-point favorite against Utah State last week and only scored 24 points, winning by 10.  And they even had incentive to run it up with coordinator Brian Ferentz having incentives in his contract to average 25 or more points per game.

That's a Utah State defense that is expected to be one of the worst in the country this season after allowing 31.2 points per game last year and bringing back only five starters on that side of the ball, and nine starters total.  It just looks like same old Iowa offense after one game, and I struggle seeing them getting margin because of it.

Utah State outgained Iowa 329 to 284 and 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play, outgaining them by 0.4 yards per play.  Iowa's rushing attack took a big step back last year, and it doesn't look any better this year after rushing for just 88 yards on 36 carries for an average of 2.4 per carry against a Utah State defense that allowed 194 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry last year.

I think the perception is still down on Iowa State after the offseason they had, and this line should be closer to PK.  There's value with Iowa State at anything +3 or higher as a home underdog.  Only Nebraska has more one-score losses than Iowa State over the past three seasons, making them a huge sleeper due to their poor luck in one-score games.  They are due some positive regression.  Matt Campbell is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.

Each of the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Iowa State has outgained Iowa by 105 or more yards in three consecutive meetings and by an average of 145 yards per game.  They held Iowa to 150 total yards last year and 173 total yards the year prior.  Their defense will lock down the Hawkeyes again, and I expect them to pull off this upset at home.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +38

Michigan is overvalued to start the season due to finally making the four-team playoff last year under Jim Harbaugh.  Now they have expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

That was evident in their opener as they only beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites.  They have a ton of players either questionable or out for this game.  That's an ECU team that lost a lot of talent from last year with just 10 returning starters.  They lost their all-everything QB in Holton Ahlers, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Now Michigan must take on an upstart UNLV team that I would have favored over East Carolina.  UNLV went 5-7 last year and would have made a bowl game if not for some injuries, most notably to starting QB Doug Brumfield.  But Brumfield is among 13 returning starters for the Rebels, and they have an upgrade at head coach in former Missouri HC Barry Odom.

The Rebels were very impressive in their opener, beating Bryant 44-14 as 15.5-point favorites.  Brumfield went 11-of-18 passing and also rushed for 49 yards in the win.  The Rebels rushed for 268 yards as a team and should be able to shorten the game with their rushing attack.  ECU rushed for 103 yards on 26 carries against Michigan.

UNLV is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games following a blowout win by 28 or more points.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/UTSA OVER 65.5

Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne is a name you will want to remember.  He comes over from Incarnate Word, where he led the most explosive offense in the FCS scoring 52 points per game and averaging 581 yards per game.  He has brought that offense and several players with him to Texas State, and his tenure is off to a tremendous start.

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 last week as 26.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result either.  Both teams even left some points on the board and still combined for 73 points.  I think we see another shootout here this week with UTSA.

Auburn transfer TJ Finley completed 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score in the win over Baylor.  This Texas State defense is a problem again this season with just four returning starters.  Baylor racked up 524 total yards on Texas State and should have scored more than 31 points.

UTSA returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 36.8 points per game and 476 yards per game last year.  That includes Frank Harris, the school's all-time leading passer who completed 69.6% of his passes last year for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.

Speaking of leaving points on the board, UTSA lost 14-17 to Houston last week, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  UTSA had 417 total yards but committed three costly turnovers. They had no problem moving the football, but Houston's defense bent and didn't break.  I guarantee you Texas State's defense will break in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -137

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  I expect them to bounce back with a victory in Game 3 with their ace on the mound.

Justin Steele is making his case to win the NL Cy Young award.  He is 16-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 12-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 16 home starts.  Steele has fired 14 shutout innings with 20 K's in his last two starts coming in.  He has also posted a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona, allowing just one earned run and 8 base runners in 11 innings with 19 K's.

Merrill Kelly has been more vulnerable on the road than he has been at home this season.  Kelly has a 3.69 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 12 road starts in 2023.  Kelly does not enjoy facing the Cubs, posting a 4.76 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Cubs are 9-0 in Steele's last nine starts and 13-1 in his last 14 starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Twins OVER 8.5

There are expected to be nearly double-digit winds blowing out to center at Target Field in Minnesota today.  That's bad news for these two gas can starting pitchers up against these two offenses as this one should sail OVER 8.5 combined runs.

David Peterson is 2-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 17 starts for the Mets this season, including 1-5 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.790 WHIP in nine road starts.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who is 2-2 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in seven home starts thsi season.  Maeda is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 14 innings.

The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven games overall and should hit at least that number today.  The Mets have scored 6 runs or more in three of their last five games overall.  The Twins score 4.8 runs per game at home, while the Mets score 4.7 runs per game on the road.

The OVER is 12-3 in Peterson's last 15 road starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  The OVER is 17-6 in Maeda's last 23 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ball State +42.5

This is more of a play against Georgia than it is a play on Ball State.  The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive national championships.  They are the kings of college football right now, and with that comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

I think Georgia is just going through the motions in the early going this season.  They opened with a 48-7 win over FCS Tennessee-Martin as a 51-point favorite.  So they didn't even score 51 points, which makes it impossible to cover.  They even had 10 points in the final two minutes of that game including a pick-6 to make the margin 41.

Now Georgia has the SEC opener on deck against South Carolina and could be looking ahead to that game and going through the motions against Ball State.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals just played an SEC team in Kentucky last week in one of the most misleading finals and bad beats of the week.

Ball State lost 44-14 to Kentucky despite only getting outgained by 62 yards.  They held the Wildcats to 357 total yards, which is impressive considering Kentucky was expected to have an improved offense with NC State transfer QB Devin Leary among 10 returning starters on offense.

The reason the score was more lopsided than it should have been is because Kentucky had a fumble return TD and a 99-yard kickoff return TD.  The reason it was a bad beat is because Ball State was down 23 in the final seconds and Kentucky threw the ball on four of their final six plays with Mark Stoops knowing the spread, and they scored with six seconds left to win by 30 as 25-point favorites.  Leary was still in the game with Kentucky's starters on that final drive.  

Georgia won't be having its starters playing in the 4th quarter of this one.  I expect them to call off the dogs early and to be getting ready for that SEC opener against South Carolina next week.  Ball State won't be wide-eyed in this one after facing an SEC team already and going toe-to-toe with them for the most part.  Their QB's went a combined 22-of-30 for 223 yards without a pick against a good Kentucky defense, and freshman Kadin Semonza looked to separate himself, going 15-of-21 for 165 yards and a score.

Kirby Smart is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia.  He has never covered in this point spread range, and he won't start this weekend.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* Troy/Kansas State FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Troy +17

The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 title last year out of nowhere.  That seems to happen every year where a team from the Big 12 wins it out of nowhere.  But with that title and that 10-win season comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are difficult to live up to.

Kansas State is a ball control team that relies on defense to win games.  They don't blow anyone out, and they aren't about to blow out a similar Troy team with a ball control offense that plays great defense.

Troy went 12-2 last season to win the Sun Belt Conference, which is consistently one of the most underrated conferences in the country and routinely produces upsets of Power 5 teams.  Now the Trojans return 12 starters from that team, including QB Gunnar Watson and leading rusher Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

This line has been inflated largely due to Kansas State covering their opener 45-0 against SE Missouri State, while Troy failed to cover its opener in a 48-30 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite.  But Troy easily should have covered when you look deeper into the numbers from that game.

Stephen F. Austin somehow scored 30 points despite only 240 total yards.  That's because Troy committed four turnovers and was very sloppy.  Troy had 540 total yards and a great showing offensively.  They outgained Stephen F. Austin 8.4 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play, or by 4.3 yards per play.  It was a much more dominant performance than the final score showed.

Now Troy is licking its chops at the opportunity to face a Power 5 team.  Troy's two losses last year came at Ole Miss by 18 as 21-point dogs and by 4 at Appalachian State on a hail mary as 13-point dogs.  That's how close they were to being 13-1.  They were only outgained by 87 yards in that 18-point loss at Ole Miss to show what they could do against a strong SEC opponent.  They will be ready for this test against Kansas State.

Kansas State has three starters that are either out or questionable in RT Christian Duffie (35 career starts), WR Keagan Johnson (Iowa transfer) and DT Uso Seumalo.  The Wildcats lost six starters on defense from a year ago, plus they lost their two best playmakers in RB Deuce Vaughn (1,558 yards, 9 TD) and WR Malik Knowles (48 receptions, 725 yards, 2 TD).

Troy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wake Forest Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +10

Wake Forest lost their star QB in Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal.  They cannot possibly replace him, and they only return 11 starters this season.  The Demon Deacons are finally going to have to go through a bit of a rebuilding year, and we saw that in their opener.

Wake Forest only beat Elon 37-17 as 32-point favorites.  That's a poor showing, and now they are laying double-digits to an improved Vanderbilt team that is off to a 2-0 start this season, beating Hawaii 35-28 and Alabama A&M 47-13.  Vanderbilt returned 15 starters this season and should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC.

Wake Forest has some key injuries in this one as well.  WR Donavon Greene is out, and that's a big blow considering he's the team's leading returning receiver, catching 37 balls for 642 yards and six touchdowns last season.  LB Chase Jones is questionable, and he's the team's leading returning tackler with 74 tackles and 6 TFL last year.

Vanderbilt is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Vanderbilt) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards, with an experienced QB returning against a team with an inexperienced QB are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 8.5

The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last five games overall with 11 or more combined runs in all five games.  The OVER is 4-2-1 in A's last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of those seven games.  Both these starting pitchers have not fared well against these lineups.

Paul Blackburn is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  Blackburn is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.125 WHIP in four career starts against Texas, allowing 28 earned runs in 16 innings.

Jordan Montgomery has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts coming in.  Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Oakland.

Texas is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games following six of more consecutive home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Illinois/Kansas ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56.5

Kansa is a dead nuts OVER team.  They put up 35.6 points per game last season and allowed 35.5 points per game, averaging 71.1 combined points per game.  They have 10 returning starters on offense so will be explosive again, and their defense won't improve much if at all.

Illinois lost their defensive coordinator from last year, and that's huge considering they had one of the best defenses in the country.  They lost five starters from that defense and three of their top four tacklers.  I do like the prospects of their offense with Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer along with each of their top two receivers returning in Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant.

Illinois played a shootout with Toledo in the opener winning 30-28 on a last-second field goal.  The offense looked good with Altmyer, who completed 18-of-26 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries to show off his dual-threat ability.  But the defense allowed 28 points and 416 total yards to a MAC opponent in Toledo, a clear sign they have taken a huge step back defensively this season.

Kansas put up 48 points and 521 total yards on Missouri State in the opener.  That was even with backup Jason Bean at quarterback.  While he is one of the better backups in the country, the Jayhawks are expected to get their dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels back from injury for this one.  He completed 66.1% of his passes with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 425 yards and seven scores in nine starts.

The weather looks ripe for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 80's tonight at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.  Kansas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games with a total set of 56.5 to 63 points.  Lance Leipold is 14-4 OVER after a win by 21 or more points as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Pirates/Braves OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last eight games overall and average 5.8 runs per game on the season.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last nine games overall and are having a ton of success at the plate of late.

Bryce Elder has been hit and miss this season for the Braves.  One miss was his lone start against the Pirates on August 10th where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 7-5 road loss to Pittsburgh.

Mitch Keller is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.340 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.  He has allowed 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 39 base runners in 16 2/3 innings in those four starts.

Atlanta is 20-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  The OVER is 4-1 in Pirates last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 10

There are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to left in Boston tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in 14 of their last 17 games overall.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.

Tanner Houck is 4-8 with a 5.07 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in eight home starts.  Houck is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore.

While Kyle Bradish is having a good season, one of his worst starts of the year came against the Red Sox where he allowed 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 2 1/3 innings.  He also allowed 7 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in his previous start against the Red Sox.  Bradish is now 0-4 with a 9.36 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in six career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 5-1 in six meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds have a big rest advantage over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.  They had Thursday off while The Cardinals completed a series in Atlanta on Thursday.  The Reds also have a big advantage on the mound over the Cardinals tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Andrew Abbott is 8-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in eight home starts.  He faced the Cardinals once this season, firing 5 2/3 shutout innings in an 8-4 victory.

The Reds should tee off on Drew Rom, who is 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in three starts this season despite facing the lowly Pirates twice, allowing 9 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in those two starts.

The Reds are 13-4 in Abbott's 17 starts this season.  Bet the Reds Friday.

20* Lions/Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Opener on Detroit +6

Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice this week and is doubtful to play Thursday.  He means everything to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes because he's his security blanket on 3rd down and in the red zone.  Kelce finished with 210 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 TD last year.  He has topped 83 receptions and 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and hasn't missed a game other than when they were resting starters.

DT Chris Jones is out Thursday due to a holdout as contract negotiations have stalled.  He had 15.5 sacks last year and is their best player on defense.  So the Chiefs are missing two of their three best players to start the 2023 season.  They are extremely vulnerable here as a 6-point favorite in a game they will likely lose outright, and at the very least struggle to get out with a close win.

The upstart Detroit Lions went 8-2 in their final 10 games last year to make a run at the playoffs.  They beat the Packers in Week 17 on the road to keep them out.  They finished 9-8 for their first winning record since 2017.  They scored 26.6 points per game and average 380 yards per game with a Top 5 offense in the NFL.  The defense got better as the season progressed and an influx of talent on that side of the ball should have them improving again this season.  They are also extremely healthy to start the season.

Jared Goff looks as comfortable as he's ever been in Detroit.  He is also 6-0 ATS in Week 1 as a starting quarterback.  The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games in the first half of the season.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Lions.  Detroit is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  Dan Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Detroit.  Bet the Lions Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -153

The Chicago Cubs are coming up clutch trying to make the playoffs and chase down the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a total of 39 runs in winning each of their last four games.

The Cubs will stay hot at the plate against Ryne Nelson, who is 6-7 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 18.00 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings.  Nelson will be making his first start since August 11th here and there will be a rust factor.

Javier Assad is one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now.  Assad is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last three.  He has allowed just one earned run and 13 base runners in 15 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Braves OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball hitting .275 and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  The St. Louis Cardinals are going through their best stretch of the season at the plate during their 5-2 run in their last seven games, scoring 5 runs or more in six of those seven games while averaging 6.6 runs per game.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own off Adam Wainwright, who is 3-10 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  But the Cardinals have scored 10 and 11 runs in winning each of the first two games of this series, including hammering Spencer Strider yesterday.  They can get to Max Fried, who is 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in four home starts this season.

There will be 9 MPH winds blowing out to left in Atlanta tonight to held aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in Thursday games this season.  Atlanta is 19-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on White Sox/Royals OVER 9.5

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Royals last five games overall with 15, 14, 10, 13 and 13 combined runs all at home.  The Royals have scored a total of 40 runs in their last five games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.  The White Sox blew a 6-0 lead yesterday and have terrible starting pitching and a bad bullpen.

Touki Toussaint is 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in five road starts.  He isn't about to cool off the Royals, and once he departs early the White Sox have a 4.87 ERA as a bullpen.

Chicago should get its bats going against Jordan Lyles, who is 4-15 with a 6.17 ERA in 26 starts this season while allowing a whopping 34 homers.  Lyles is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in his two starts against the White Sox in 2023, allowing 8 earned runs in 14 innings.  Once Lyles departs, the Royals have an even worse bullpen with a 5.24 ERA on the season.

The OVER is 8-0 in White Sox last eight games vs. bad teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/A's OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last five games overall with 22, 15, 12, 11 and 8 combined runs.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in A's last six games overall with 9, 11, 16 and 11 combined runs in the four overs.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Oakland today to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own off JP Sears, who is 3-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 27 starts this season while allowing a whopping 31 homers.  Sears is 1-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 home starts while allowing 16 homers in 65 innings.  Sears is 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts coming in for the Blue Jays.  Ryu has allowed 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the A's as well.

Ryu is 11-1 OVER in his last 12 starts after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Oakland is 20-8 OVER vs. AL East opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -136

The Chicago Cubs are coming up clutch trying to make the playoffs and chase down the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a total of 31 runs in their last three games.  The Giants are falling apart with five consecutive losses.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last seven games, including one run or fewer four times.

The Cubs will stay hot at the plate against lefty Alex Wood, who is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Wood has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.091 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Cubs are hitting .268 and scoring 5.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

Lefty Jordan Wicks has been impressive in two starts this season, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 innings with 12 K's.  Those weren't easy tasks as they were both on the road against the Reds and Pirates.  The Giants are hitting .235 and scoring 3.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

San Francisco is 4-19 in its last 23 road games.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/A's OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0 in Blue Jays last four games overall with 22, 15, 12 and 11 combined runs.  The OVER is 4-1 in A's last five games overall with 9, 11, 16 and 11 combined runs in the four overs.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own off Ken Waldichuk, who is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 19 starts this season while allowing a whopping 20 homers in 86 innings.

Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable on the road for the Blue Jays with a 5.02 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 14 road starts this season, allowing 42 earned runs and 18 homers in 75 1/3 innings.  Bassitt allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 5-4 loss to the A's in his lone start against them in 2023.

Oakland is 20-8 OVER vs. AL East opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+102)

The Baltimore Orioles continue coming up clutch trying to win the AL East.  They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 10 of those 12 games.  The Angels have been a dumpster fire since the trade deadline.  They are 8-23 in their last 31 games overall, including 1-7 in their last eight games and were just swept at Oakland over the weekend while getting outscored 21-9 in the process.

Dean Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.20 ERA in 27 starts this season, 5-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 road starts, and 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts and 12 of his last 14 starts overall.  Kremer is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts against the Angels.

Reid Detmers is 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 24 starts for the Angels this season.  He has really struggled of late, going 1-5 with a 7.56 ERA in his last nine starts while allowing 35 earned runs and 10 homers in 41 2/3 innings.

Baltimore is 14-1 in its last 15 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Orioles are 9-1 in Kremer's last 10 starts and winning by 3.4 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -115

The Chicago Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall and have scored a total of 20 runs in their last two games.  The San Francisco Giants are 1-5 in their last six games and have scored a total of 5 runs in the five losses.  They have been held to one run in 27 innings in losing each of their last three games coming in.

The Giants will stay cold at the plate against Kyle Hendricks, who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hendricks ranks among the MLB leaders with 16 starts allowing 3 earned runs or fewer since May 25th.  He nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start against the Giants on June 10th, firing 8 shutout innings while allowing only two base runners.

Hendricks is now 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Giants.  He and the Cubs should be much bigger favorites today considering how poorly the Giants have hit the ball of late.  Opener Ryan Walker goes for the Giants before giving way to the bullpen and likely the awful Sean Manaea.

The Cubs are 26-7 in Hendricks' last 33 home starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven road games after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span.  San Francisco is 4-18 in its last 22 road games.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-114)

The Baltimore Orioles continue coming up clutch trying to win the AL East.  They are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of those 11 games.  They are raking right now and will stay hot at the plate against Kenny Rosenberg, who will be making his first start of the season for the lowly Angels.

The Angels have been a dumpster fire since the trade deadline.  They are 8-22 in their last 30 games overall, including 1-6 in their last seven games and were just swept at Oakland over the weekend while getting outscored 21-9 in the process.

Grayson Rodriquez is going through his best stretch of the season for the Orioles.  He is 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in all seven starts.

Baltimore is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -132

The San Francisco Giants have gone 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 5 runs in the four losses.  They just cannot hit.  Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs just hung 15 runs on the Reds yesterday and are feeling good about themselves at the plate.

They will get to Logan Webb, who is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts.  Webb has posted a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs.  He is getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this money line today.

Ace Justin Steele goes for the Cubs and will make life even more difficult on this weak San Francisco lineup.  Steele is 15-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Yankees/Astros ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 59 runs in their last seven games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in nine of their last 11 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Christan Javier has taken a big step back for the Astros this season with a 4.66 ERA in 25 starts.  Javier has a 7.24 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 29 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  He allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 7 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees in 2023.

Micheal King is basically just an opener for the Yankees and has averaged 2.9 innings per start in his three starts this season.  He has faced the Tigers, Nationals and Marlins, which are three of the worst lineups in the league.  Now he takes a big step up in class here against Houston.

Houston is 14-3 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  The OVER is 17-7-1 in Javier's 25 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Dodgers OVER 9

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 11 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Charlie Morton is pitching well of late but takes a big step up in class here.  Morton is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Bobby Miller, who has posted a 5.28 ERA in eight home starts this season.

The Dodgers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers -135

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory today after suffering three consecutive losses, including each of the first two games of this series to the Twins.  They will avoid the sweep today and salvage with a victory in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Jon Gray is 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who is 3-7 with a 4.69 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Maeda has really been roughed up of late with an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings to the Guardians, Brewers and Tigers.

The Twins are 1-8 in Maeda's nine day game starts this season.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Royals OVER 9.5

It has been hot in Kansas City all weekend with the wind blowing out to center and that will be the case again Sunday.  These teams combined for 15 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2 and it should be more of the same in Game 3.  Temps will be in the 90's with double-digit winds blowing out to center this afternoon.

Chris Sale is 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 15 starts for the Red Sox this season, including 4-3 with a 5.44 ERA in eight road starts.  Taylor Clarke is merely an opener for the Royals today as they will make this a bullpen game.  The Royals have a 5.29 ERA as a bullpen this season and a 5.61 ERA at home.

The OVER is 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Boston is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games vs. a AL team with a .330 OBP or worse.  Boston is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 road games vs. a AL team hitting .255 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 10 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last nine games and are averaging 5.9 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Plus, both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable.  Bryce Elder is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Emmet Sheehan is 3-1 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three.

The Dodgers are 11-0 OVER in their last 11 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Phillies/Brewers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely raking at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall with the only two exceptions being when the wind was blowing in heavy at Wrigley Field two days in a row.  The same can be said for the Phillies, who have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  This is a very low total for how hot these offenses are up against these two starting pitchers today.

Colin Rea is 5-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts this season while allowing 19 homers in 99 2/3 innings.  Rea is 2-3 with a 5.58 ERA in 10 home starts, allowing 12 homers in 50 innings.  He'll be opposed by Aaron Nola, who has been great at home but terrible on the road.  Nola is 6-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 15 road starts this season, allowing 19 homers in 90 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 13-2 in Rea's last 15 home starts as an underdog.  The OVER is 13-3 in Nola's last 16 road starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+107)

I like the Texas Rangers to bounce back in blowout fashion today due to their advantage on the mound.  The Minnesota Twins have huge righty/lefty splits this season and are hitting just .222 and scoring 3.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  The Rangers are hitting .273 and scoring 6.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is 8-10 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Montgomery has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of those, and one earned run or fewer in nine of them.

Lefty Dallas Kechel goes for the Twins.  He is washed up and no more than a fill-in starter.  Keuchel is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three starts this season.  His lone road start was a complete disaster as he allowed 6 earned runs and 8 base runners in 1 2/3 innings of a 13-2 loss at Philadelphia.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 55 runs in their last six games for an average of 9.2 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Luis Severino has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 4-7 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in nine road starts.  Severino is also 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against Houston, including 0-5 with a 5.26 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.

Hunter Brown is one of the most overrated starters in baseball for Houston.  He is 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  While Brown has been much better on the road, he has been awful at home, going 3-5 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 10 home starts this season.  Brown is also 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

The Yankees are 12-3 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders this season.  Severino is 34-19 OVER in his 53 career starts after allowing one earned run or fewer in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.