Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 219.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team without all of their top scorers right now due to injury.  Memphis is 18-7 UNDER in its 25 home games which have seen an average of just 215.3 combined points per game.  The Grizzlies have been held to 113 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games now.

The Rockets are also missing two key players in Fred VanVleet (16.5 PPG, 8.2 APG) and Cam Whitmore (11.9 PPG).  They have been held to 105 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Rockets rank 23rd.

Memphis is 10-2 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  Houston is 13-5 UNDER off a home win this season.  The Rockets are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games following a win overall.  The Grizzlies are 8-1 UNDER in home games against teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

I like the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 118-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.  Now they come back as 13.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch tonight.  The Celtics won't be very motivated to beat this team again, which will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated number.

All five starters for the Celtics played at least 35 minutes last night.  They aren't as deep as the Nets, who will have an advantage in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation with four of their five starters playing 34 minutes or fewer, and three playing 28 or fewer last night.

Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win where it didn't cover the spread.  The Celtics are 5-13 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and grossly overvalued over the last couple weeks.  The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall.  The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova.

Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season.  They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy.

Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul.  Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette.  Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them.

The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Rutgers by 15 as 7-point road dogs, upset Indiana by 14 as 7-point road dogs, upset Iowa by 10 as 1-point home dogs and took Northwestern to the wire in a 5-point loss as 7.5-point road dogs.  They cover the spread by a combined 56.5 points in their last four games.

Now the Nittany Lions are undervalued once again as 3.5-point home dogs to Michigan State.  They want revenge from a 92-61 road loss at Michigan State.  They shot 3-of-29 (10.3%) from 3 while the Spartans shot 10-of-21 (47.6%) from 3 in that game.  It's safe to say the Nittany Lions are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and they have been shooting it much better here of late.

Michigan State is 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  The Spartans are in a bit of a letdown spot here as well after a big comeback home win over Illinois over the weekend.

Michigan State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after covering two of its last three games.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after winning three of their last four games.  Penn State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Penn State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a letdown spot coming off two consecutive upset road wins over the Bucks and Clippers.  They beat the Clippers 121-100 last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I can't see them being all that motivated to beat the Blazers tonight after upsetting the Clippers, and they are definitely the more tired team.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are expected to get Anfernee Simons (23.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) back from injury, and he means everything to their success.  They also have Jerami Grant (21.9 PPG) and De'Andre Ayton (13.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) healthy and could get back Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG), who is questionable.

The Blazers have been competitive in seven consecutive games not once losing by more than 12 points and with only one loss by double-digits.  This despite battling through injuries to several of their key players.  I love the spot for the Blazers with the rest advantage, and they are 42-12 SU in their last 54 home meetings with the Timberwolves to boot.

Minnesota is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after covering five or six of their last seven games.  Plays against favorites (Minnesota) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Timberwolves.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Ole Miss/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 162.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 125th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-5 OVER in their 23 games this season, including 12-2 OVER in their 14 home games which are seeing 170.6 combined points per game on average.

Ole Miss is an elite offensive team ranking 30th in adjusted offense but like Kentucky, a terrible defensive team ranking 130th in adjusted defense.  The Rebels are 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 38.7% on the season.  The Wildcats are 1st at 41% on the season.  These are two elite shooting teams, so the OVER is a great bet.

Kentucky is 15-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -9

Wisconsin will be max motivated for a victory tonight to end a 4-game losing streak.  Three of those losses came on the road and the lone home loss was against arguably the best team in the country in Purdue when they shot 3-of-19 from 3 and still only lost by 6 points.  Now they are back home here against a team they can handle in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Penn State and Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa.  This will be their toughest road test this season.

Wisconsin beat Ohio State 71-60 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  The Buckeyes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Ohio State is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers pe game this season.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Magic OVER 223

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Thunder last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  This 223-point total is very low for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Magic are more of an under team, but they have gone OVER in three consecutive games and are fully healthy right now.  They have gone 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall as well.  The books continue to set their totals too low.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Thunder in this one.

The first meeting between the Thunder and Magic this season the total was set at 232, so this total is 9 points less and there's value as a result.  Both teams shot terribly in that first meeting which is why it stayed under.  The Thunder shot 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range while the Magic shot 8-of-36 (22.2%).  Both teams are due for some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Orlando is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games after winning four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +18.5

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Indiana State Sycamores who are 22-3 and in 1st place in the Missouri Valley.  They have won nine consecutive games and are coming off a hard-fought 73-71 win at Missouri State on Saturday.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 18.5-point spread.

Illinois State is just 11-14 SU this season but has been very competitive in pretty much every game.  In fact, the Redbirds have just one loss by more than 17 points in their last 12 games.  They have played some of their best basketball on the road this season with their last five road games all decided by single-digits.  They upset both Missouri State and Murray State on the road during this stretch and only lost by 3 as 8-point dogs at Southern Illinois.

Illinois State hasn't lost any of its last nine meetings with Indiana State by more than 16 points, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Redbirds pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.  Bet Illinois State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Jazz ML +105

The Utah Jazz have been the best covering team at home in the NBA this season.  They are 17-7 SU & 18-5-1 ATS at home and have knocked off many of the top contenders in the league.  They should not be home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

I love the spot for the Jazz coming in on three days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I hate the spot for the Warriors coming off a 113-112 home win over the Suns where Steph Curry won it with a 3-pointers just before the buzzer.  This is now a letdown spot for the Warriors, who will also be playing in their 7th different city in 11 days and in altitude to boot.  This is a tired team right now ripe for the upset.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after losing four or five of its last six games this season.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Mavs OVER 247

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when they have Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the court at the same time.  They are two of the best scorers in the NBA, but they are also two of the worst defenders.  The Mavericks rank 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while playing at the 8th-fastest tempo.

They face another dead nuts OVER team here in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards are a pretty good offensive team with all of their young guards.  They lost a 129-133 shootout in Boston in their last road game for 262 combined points.  The Mavericks are coming off a 146-111 home win over the Thunder for 257 combined points.

Washington is 32-12 OVER in its last 44 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game, including 13-2 OVER in their last 15 in the 2nd half of the season.  Dallas is 16-6 OVER against teams with losing records this season.  These teams have combined for 247 and 253 points in their last two meetings, and the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their first six games with Doc Rivers.  But it was largely due to a brutal schedule and some injuries.  They played five straight road games and came home and lost to Minnesota.

But the Bucks bounced back with a 120-84 home win over the Hornets on the 2nd of a back-to-back in Damian Lillard's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover, and now they want revenge from a 107-113 road loss at Denver on January 29th in Rivers' first game.

The Bucks go from 4-point road dogs at Denver in that meeting to 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  They should be at least 2-point home favorites when adjusting for home-court advantage and the spot.

Denver is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers ML -118

BONUS BETS: I will be adding my favorite Super Bowl Props leading up to the Super Bowl. Check back below my analysis for these bonus bets.  I should have them all up by Saturday, February 10th.

If this game was played last week the 49ers would be -3.  But since the Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Ravens and the 49ers struggled to get by the Lions, this line has been adjusted down close to PK.  I will gladly take advantage and 'buy low' on the 49ers and 'sell high' on the Chiefs.

The 49ers were the highest power rated team in the NFL all season.  That means that they were the best team in the NFL all season.  I still believe that to be the case now even though they needed comebacks to beat both the Packers and the Lions.  But those two games are easily explainable.

The 49ers were overvalued going into both of those games laying -10.5 to the Packers and -7.5 to the Lions.  The Packers were as healthy as they had been all season which allowed them to upset the Cowboys on the road prior to giving the 49ers a run for their money.  But when Brock Purdy needed a drive the most down 4 in the 4th quarter, he came through with his best drive of the game and the game-winning score.

That confidence carried over to the game against the Lions.  Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the 49ers scored 27 unanswered points in the 2H behind Purdy and actually took a 10-point lead before the Lions got a garbage TD to win by 3.  The 49ers got the Lions' best shot and it was also a fully healthy Detroit team playing their best football of the season.  The Chiefs lost to the Lions AND the Packers earlier this season, and neither were playing as well as they were against the 49ers at the time the Chiefs lost to them.

The Chiefs are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Dolphins 26-7 in the playoff opener.  They took advantage of a depleted Miami defense and got to face the warm weather Dolphins at temperatures around zero degrees.  They upset the Bills 27-24 as 2.5-point road dogs in the Divisional Round.  They took advantage of a Buffalo defense that was decimated by injuries again.

Last week, the Chiefs pulled the 17-10 upset as 4.5-point road dogs at Baltimore.  The Ravens are fully to blame for this one.  They had a huge advantage on the ground and decided to let Lamar Jackson try to beat them with his arm.  They got away from their strength.  They only gave Gus Edwards three carries for 20 yards to the entire game.  It was mind-blowing.

The Ravens let the Chiefs off the hook, and so did the Bills.  After a run-heavy approach through three quarters, the Bills went away from the run in the 4th.  They rushed for 182 yards on the Chiefs in that game but inexplicably went away from it with the game on the line.  It also helped the Chiefs that Stefon Diggs dropped a potential TD bomb from Allen that would have changed the game.

The 49ers will not let the Chiefs off the hook.  Kyle Shanahan loves to run the football, and he will come with the proper game plan to beat Kansas City.  He will give it to his best offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey.  He had 1,459 rushing yards and 14 TD during the regular season while also catching 67 balls for 564 yards and seven scores.  He has been a workhorse in these playoffs, rushing 37 times for 188 yards and 4 TD while also catching 11 balls for 72 yards.  Shanahan will put the game in his hands and open up play-action for Brock Purdy, who has proven he is more than just a game manager coming up clutch with comeback wins in back-to-back games.

The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  They are an elite pass defense, but getting physical with them in the running game is what they are susceptible too.  The 49ers have the perfect answer with McCaffery and company.  We've seen the 49ers struggle against the outside zone against the run all season, including the last two weeks.  But the Packers with Aaron Jones and the Lions with their two-headed monster at RB in Montgomery and Gibbs thrive running the outside zone where they can use their speed to get to the edge.

The great news for the 49ers is after facing two great outside zone teams with two of the best offensive lines in the league, they now get to face the Chiefs, who run mostly inside zone.  The 49ers are elite at stopping runs into the middle of their line because of their elite LB's.  They struggle setting an edge at Nick Bosa and Chase Young sometimes get too pass rush-happy.  They won't have to worry about that against the Chiefs, who have a great pass blocking O-Line but not a good run blocking O-Line.

The Chiefs are going to put the ball in Mahomes' hands and try to attack the 49ers with the pass.  Well, the 49ers are elite against the pass especially to passes over the middle of the field, ranking 1st in the NFL in defending such passes.  That means they will be great at taking away Travis Kelce, which is Mahomes' biggest weapon.  The Chiefs have been getting by with their lack of playmakers on offense, but they will run out of luck this week.  Their defense has carried them, but I think the 49ers will do as much damage as any team has on that defense because they are loaded on offense and scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  The 49ers will defense the pass well enough.  They give up just 216 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

While the 49ers are about as healthy as they have been all season, the Chiefs have some key injuries on defense.  They just lost DE Charles Omenihu to a torn ACL against the Ravens when he got a sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson.  Omenihu has 8 sacks in just 12 games this season and is their best pass rusher opposite Chris Jones.  LB Willie Gay missed the Baltimore games and is questionable with a neck injury.  All-Pro G Joe Thuney also missed the Baltimore game and is questionable.  DT Derrick Nnadi has been placed on injured reserve.

Finally, it just feels like San Francisco's year after those two comeback wins to get here.  They basically never came back to win games in the 2H under Kyle Shanahan up until these playoffs.  Now they got the monkey off their back and are brimming with confidence.  Purdy is good enough to win a Super Bowl largely because of all the talent he has around him.  He also showed he can make plays with his legs if need be.  The 49ers desperately want revenge on the Chiefs after blowing a 10-point 4Q lead in their last trip to the Super Bowl.  But they don't have to deal with Tyreke Hill any more.  They are the more complete team and that will show on the field Sunday.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Listed in order of strongest to weakest

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-130)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (-115)

Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 Receptions (-160)

McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Ji'Ayir Brown OVER 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

Which Team Will Have the Longest Gross Punt? 49ers (-115)

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-125)

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Anytime TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)

Super Bowl MVP: Deebo Samuel (+2500)

20* Kings/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder are both two dead nuts OVER teams.  The Thunder rank 10th in pace while the Kings rank 11th.  The Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating while the Kings rank 14th.

The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in all five games and 241 or more in four of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games overall with 241 or more combined points in three consecutive games.  These teams combined for 251 points in their most recent meeting this season.

Oklahoma City is 16-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 10-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 15-7 SU & 19-3 ATS this season as they best covering team in the entire country.  They have been grossly undervalued all season and remain undervalued here as a 6.5-point road underdog to the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 13-10 SU & 9-14 ATS this season, including just 4-8 ATS at home as they are one of the more overvalued teams in the country.  The Hawkeyes are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan by 10 and Ohio State by 2 both at home.  They were also upset by Maryland at home.

Minnesota wants revenge from an 86-77 home loss to Iowa.  The Hawkeyes shot a unsustainable 53.8% in that game while the Gophers shot 5-of-29 (17.2%) from 3.  I think the Golden Gophers are due for some positive shooting regression to say the least in the rematch.

The Gophers are 10-0 ATS off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs.  They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games.

The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern.  They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th.  That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out.  Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough.  Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State.

Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry.  They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 133.5

Seton Hall and Villanova are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Couple that with the fact that this is an early, sleepy start time at 12:00 EST and I think we have the perfect recipe for a defensive battle in this Big East showdown.

Villanova ranks 338th in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  Seton Hall ranks 294th in adjusted tempo and 68th in adjusted defense.

Villanova is 4-2 UNDER in its last six games overall with 131 or fewer combined points in four of those six games.  Seton Hall is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 132 or fewer combined points in three of those four games.

Seton Hall is 52-33 UNDER in its last 85 games overall.  Villanova is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +2.5

This is the toughest spot of the season for Arizona.  They are coming off a 105-99 (3 OT) win at Utah in the altitude on Thursday.  Four starters played at least 44 minutes for the Wildcats.  Now they have to turn around and play in the altitude again in Colorado on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Buffaloes.

Colorado made pretty easy work of Arizona State in an 82-70 home win on Thursday.  The Buffaloes should still be pretty fresh for this one.  They have some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last decade, which has proven to be the case again this season.

Colorado is 13-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  Arizona is 2-3 SU in its last five Pac-12 road games despite being favored in all five.  The two wins both came down to the wire, and the three losses came by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Arizona.  That includes a 79-63 win in their most recent home meeting.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  The Buffaloes are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case because it hasn't been for much of the season.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC/Stanford OVER 151.5

USC just got its best player in Isaiah Collier (15.6 PPG, 4.1 APG) back from injury in an 83-77 win over California on Wednesday.  The Trojans are back to full strength and an elite offensive team with a ton of talent when that's the case.  It's time to 'buy low' on a USC OVER now getting Collier back.

Stanford is a good partner for an OVER.  The Cardinal rank 72nd in adjusted tempo, 81st in adjusted offense and 120th in adjusted defense.  USC likes to play fast too especially with Collier.

USC beat Stanford 93-79 for 172 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is now 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  They combined for 160 points in their previous meeting as well.

Stanford is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Cardinal are 11-1 OVER at home this season.  USC is 10-1 OVER after failing to cover two of its last three games this season.  The Trojans are 10-1 OVER vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Suns/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 239.5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been basically all season.  They are both elite offensive teams when that is the case, and that has been on display in recent games.

Indeed, the Suns have scored at least 114 points in 14 of their last 15 games overall.  The Warriors have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  I think both teams get to 120 in this one and it sails OVER the total.

Golden State is 8-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Phoenix is 8-1 OVER vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +13

This is the toughest spot of the season for the Utah Utes.  They are coming off a very deflating 105-99 (3 OT) home loss to Arizona on Thursday.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Arizona Sun Devils on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank as their three best players in Madsen (51 minutes), Smith (49) and Carlson (44) have to be running on fumes.

That is going to make it very difficult for the Utes to get margin on the Sun Devils.  Arizona State clearly matches up well with Utah beating them 82-70 as 6-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  The Sun Devils are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Utes.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a home loss.  Arizona State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after two straight games attempting 10 or fewer free throws than their opponents.  The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Oklahoma UNDER 140

Oklahoma ranks 173rd in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  Oklahoma State ranks 200th in adjusted tempo, 90th in adjusted defense and just 170th in adjusted offense.  Both of these are UNDER teams.

That has been on display in recent head-to-head meetings between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Indeed, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have combined for 106, 132, 128, 108 and 119 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 118.6 combined points per game, which is 22.6 points per game less than this 140-point total.  There's a ton of value on the UNDER to say the least.

Oklahoma is 10-3 UNDER vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Sooners are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 home games after two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +7.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's after losing five of their last seven games overall.  They want revenge from one of those defeats, a 73-72 home loss to Marquette on January 20th.  Now they go from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Marquette off six consecutive victories while also going 5-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have had the last week off, and while that's usually a good thing, it could work against them here because they were on a roll.  It's just like the NFL where you want to back teams who were poor going into their bye and fade teams that were on a roll going into their bye.

St. John's is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Red Storm are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCLA +1.5

Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Arizona by 6 as 18-point dogs when they blew an 18-point lead.  Five of their six wins have come by 8 points or more.

Now the Bruins have their sights set on revenge from a 66-57 home loss to California as 6.5-point favorites.  That was back when they were playing very poorly and banged up.  This is a different UCLA team this time around.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Cal off consecutive wins over Arizona State and USC, which are two teams playing some of the worst basketball in the Pac-12 right now.  The Golden Bears should not be favored in this contest.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in road games following an ATS win this season.  The Golden Bears are 10-20 ATS in their last 30 home games.  California is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. marginal winning teams (51-60%).  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Wake Forest OVER 149

Wake Forest is an elite offensive team.  They score 80.7 points per game overall and 84.9 points per game at home.  They rank 27th in adjusted offense and 109th in adjusted tempo, so they like to play pretty fast as well.

NC State also likes to play pretty fast ranking 120th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense.  The Wolfpack are scoring 75.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 159, 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  NC State beat Wake Forest 83-76 earlier this season for 159 combined points despite these two teams combining to go just 6-of-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will only shoot better in the rematch.

Wake Forest is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off two consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.  NC State is 51-32 OVER in its last 83 road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Gonzaga/Kentucky CBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 166.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 102nd in adjusted defense.  They are 17-5 OVER in their 22 games this season, including 11-2 OVER in their 13 home games which are seeing 171.4 combined points per game on average.

Gonzaga is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulldogs rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 84.7 points per game on 50.7% shooting this season.  These teams are unfamiliar with one another with this rare non-conference game in February, which will favor the OVER.

Kentucky is 14-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +2.5

I love the spot for the Florida Gators.  They have had the last week off since a tough 67-66 road loss to Texas A&M last Saturday.  They are foaming at the mouth and ready to take their shot at upsetting the Auburn Tigers in Gainesville on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate letdown spot.  The Tigers are coming off a 99-81 home win over their biggest rivals in the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They got revenge on Alabama after losing on the road to them in their first meeting this season.  That was on Wednesday, so the Tigers have only had two days to get ready for the Gators.

Florida is 9-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming to Kentucky by 2.  Auburn is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three SEC road games losing at Alabama by 4 and at Mississippi State by 6 with its lone win coming at Ole Miss.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Auburn.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Thunder/Mavs NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 240

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are on the court at the same time.  Both are elite scorers and terrible defenders.  The Mavericks are 12th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while ranking 9th in pace.

The Thunder rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating and can match the Mavericks score for score in this one.  They will be looking to get up and down in this one especially coming into this game on three days' rest and fully healthy now.

OKC beat Dallas 126-120 for 246 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  That was a very up-tempo game that got OVER the total despite the Thunder shooting just 44% and the Mavericks 44.8% for the game.  I expect the shooting to improve in the rematch.

Oklahoma City is 15-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 9-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +8

I love the spot for TCU Saturday.  They have had the last week off since a 77-66 home loss to Texas.  They want revenge from a 73-72 home loss to Iowa State on January 20th in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to take the Cyclones to the wire at the very least, so we are getting some great value on the Horned Frogs.

Iowa State will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days and is in a letdown spot following a 70-65 upset road win at Texas on Tuesday.  The Cyclones won't be all that motivated to beat TCU again, and they are starting to get a little too much respect after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Three of the last four meetings between Iowa State and TCU were decided by 3 points or less.  TCU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Horned Frogs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  TCU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Rutgers Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -4

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers.  They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak and will be max motivated for a victory.  They lost in OT at Nebraska, went 3-for-19 from 3 in a 6-point home loss to Purdue, and were upset at Michigan as 8-point favorites last time out.

We will 'buy low' on the Badgers and 'sell high' on Rutgers, which is coming off two consecutive upset road wins at Michigan and at Maryland.  They came back from 15 points down in the 2H to beat Michigan and clipped Maryland by 3.  They had lost their previous three games and none were really competitive, losing by 25 at Illinois, by 8 at home to Purdue and by 15 at home to Penn State.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series.  The road team is now 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  This is a very short number for the Badgers to be laying today considering they are by far the superior team.  The rank 11th in offense and 31st in defense while Rutgers ranks 297th in offense.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* SDSU/Nevada MWC No-Brainer on Nevada -1.5

Nevada is 11-1 SU at home this season with home of the best home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  Their last two home games have been very impressive with a 77-64 win as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado State and a 90-60 win over San Jose State as 11.5-point favorites.  But neither were as impressive as their 77-63 win as 5.5-point dogs at Utah State last time out, so the Wolf Pack are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Now they get a chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume today with a home win over a ranked San Diego State team.  But the Aztecs have been far from dominant over the last month.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Most concerning has been their performances on the road.

The Aztecs only beat San Jose State 81-78 as 10-point favorites, lost 88-70 at New Mexico as 3.5-point dogs, lost 67-66 as 1-point favorites at Boise State and lost 79-71 as 2.5-point dogs at Colorado State.  They are now 1-4 ATS in their last five MWC road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Nevada beat San Diego State 75-66 as a 2.5-point home dog last season.  Bet Nevada Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 233

The Houston Rockets have changed the way they play with more tempo over the last month.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points with their opponents in eight of their last 13 games overall.

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for one of their best defenders in OG Anunoby.  They also traded for Bruce Brown, and those three guards make them an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-0 in Raptors last four games overall with 238 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes their 135-106 loss in Houston on February 2nd earlier this month for 241 combined points.  It should be more of the same here, except I expect the Raptors to shoot much better than they did in that first meeting.

Houston is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Raptors and Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks didn't lose any important players at the trade deadline despite Dejounte Murray's name coming up a ton.  I think he sat out the last couple games because of the rumors, and now there's a decent chance he returns tonight.

That would be a bonus, but I like how the Hawks played even without him in their last two games.  They took both the Clippers at home and Celtics on the road to the wire.  Now I expect them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight by taking down a short-handed Philadelphia 76ers team.

The 76ers are 26-8 SU with Joel Embiid and 4-12 SU without him.  Tyrese Maxey isn't good enough to carry this team.  They lost Patrick Beverly in a trade and added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne, but neither are expected to play tonight.  They are also without Melton, Batum and Covington.  The last three games without Embiid have been a disaster with the 76ers going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS while getting blown out in all 3, losing by 15 at home to the Nets, by 16 at home to the Mavericks and by 23 at home to the Warriors.

Plays on road teams (Atlanta) - after allowing 115 points or more in five consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 125 points or more last game are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Blazers OVER 227.5

The OVER is 3-1 in Pistons last four games overall combining for 249 points with the Cavs, 251 points with the Clippers and 253 points with the Kings.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they are playing right now.  And they didn't even have both Bogdanovic and Cunningham against the Kings last night, and both could return tonight which would make them an even better OVER bet.

Injuries for the Blazers have hampered them all season, but they have been a very good offensive team when they've had Grant (21.3 PPG), Brogdon (15.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Simons (23.2 PPG, 5.3 APG) on the court at the same time.  These three are all probable, plus they could have Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG) and DeAndre Ayton (13.8 PPG) on the court tonight, who are both questionable.

Detroit is 17-6 OVER as a road underdog this season.  The Pistons are 30-15 OVER as underdogs this season.  Detroit ranks 7th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season, making them a dead nuts OVER team.  This total of 227.5 is very low for a game involving the Pistons and with the current positive health of the Blazers.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Suns OVER 243

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, but they can fill it up on offense.  The Jazz have scored 123 or more points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  If they get to 123 tonight, this thing is sailing OVER.

The Suns are fully healthy right now with Booker, Durant, Beal and Nurkic all on the court at the same time.  They are an elite offensive team when that's the case, plus they have sharp shooters in Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon surrounding them.  The Suns have scored at least 114 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.

These teams have met twice this season with the Suns winning 131-128 for 259 combined points in the first meeting and 140-137 in the 2nd meeting in OT for 277 combined points just two days later.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season and should not be 6-point home underdogs to the Arizona Wildcats tonight.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Utes will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game all season, and I expect them to pull off the upset to boost their tournament resume.  We'll take the points for some insurance.

Arizona has been very shaky on the road in Pac-12 play this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 road games with three bad upset losses.  They lost by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Utes are 201-152 ATS in their last 353 home games.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Drexel/UNC-Wilmington OVER 136.5

UNC-Wilmington is an elite offensive team scoring 80.7 points per game overall and 91.9 points per game at home.  This total of 136.5 is very low for a game involving Wilmington.  Six of their last seven games have seen 147 or more combined points.

Drexel has gone OVER in four of its last six games with 137 or more combined points in four of those six games.  And they haven't faced may elite offensive teams like Wilmington during this stretch.

Drexel beat Wilmington 78-63 for 141 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 4th.  Wilmington shot 31% from the field and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in that game and it still went OVER the 138.5-point total.  Wilmington is due for some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch, where they are scoring 91.9 PPG this season as stated before.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Penn State ML +100

The Iowa Hawkeyes have some of the biggest home/road splits in the Big Ten since Fran McCaffery took over as head coach.  That has proven to be the case again this season as they are 2-5 SU in true road games this season.  They should not be favored on the road against Penn State tonight.

The Nittany Lions are improving rapidly under Mike Rhoades this season.  They beat Rutgers 61-46 as 7-point road dogs and Indiana 85-71 as 7-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.  They also recently upset Wisconsin at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Iowa is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hawkeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Nittany Lions' ability to take care of the ball against Iowa's pressure will be their key to victory tonight.  Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Pelicans/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Clippers and a great time to 'sell high' on them.  They just completed a 6-1 road trip and have been on the road since January 26th.  I always like fading teams in their first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions for them to deal with back home.

Now the Clippers will be playing in their 8th different city in 13 days and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just played in a 149-144 shootout in Atlanta on Monday and won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 138-100 blowout home win over the Raptors on Monday.  They will be the much fresher team in this one, and the Pelicans have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season.  They are 11-4 SU in their last 15 road games with only two losses by more than 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans own the Clippers, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Celtics OVER 244

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace, 10th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  Their defense gets even worse without C Clint Capela in their lineup as he is the only player that offers any resistance to the opposition at the rim.

The OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games overall with 246 or more combined points at the end of regulation in all seven games.  They are averaging 262.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven games.  This total of 244 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that is the case.  They rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.  They can name their number here against the Hawks, which I think is 130-plus and the Hawks will do enough to keep pace to get this up and OVER the total.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 248 or more combined points in three of those.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Wizards OVER 234

The Cleveland Cavaliers are fully healthy right now and playing well offensively.  They have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this season which is a big reason for their uptick on offense.

Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards who rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards allow 125.8 points per game on 50.3% shooting at home this season.  But they score 114.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting at home and should be able to put up enough to get this one up and OVER the total with the Cavaliers naming their number offensively.

Washington is 16-3 OVER in its last 19 home games when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.  They will be max motivated coming off two consecutive losses to Nebraska (OT) and Purdue (by 6).  They shot 1-for-13 from 3 in the 2H against Purdue otherwise they would have pulled off the upset.

Now the Badgers take a big step down in competitive here against one of the most overrated teams in all of college basketball in the Michigan Wolverines.  The Wolverines are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone win coming against their biggest rivals in Ohio State, which is also way down this season.  Michigan and Ohio State currently reside in the last place in the Big Ten.

Michigan lost by 10 at home to Rutgers, by 19 at Michigan State, by 10 at home to Iowa, by 32 at Purdue and by 15 at home to Illinois in its last five games.  So the Wolverines haven't even been competitive despite playing three games at home during this stretch.  It's not asking much for the Badgers to cover this 5-point spread on the road tonight.

Michigan is 1-12 ATS after failing to cover four or five of its last six games this season.  Juwan Howard has lost this team and it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't finish the season.  A blowout loss to Wisconsin may be the last straw.  Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +21.5

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-17 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points.

I backed the Beacons in a similar spot against Drake as my 25* MVC Game of the Year.  Drake was coming off a huge win over Indiana State the game prior and was in a letdown spot.  That proved to be the case as Drake only won by 11 as similar 20.5-point favorites.

Now it is Indiana State in the letdown spot.  The Sycamores are coming off a huge 75-67 home win over Drake on Saturday that solidified their spot in 1st place in the MVC.  They beat Bradley in OT two games before and were flat in a 6-point win at Belmont the next game, which was sandwiched in between the Bradley/Drake games.  I fully expect the Sycamores to be flat tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 21.5-point spread.

Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS as a road dog or PK this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more.  The Beacons are 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  They have done their best work on the road in 2023-24 and will give the Sycamores more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific +21.5

St. Mary's is in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They finally won at Gonzaga 64-62 Saturday night.  After getting that monkey off their back, their motivation to beat Pacific is going to be at zero, especially since they just beat this team 76-28 at home on January 25th just over a week ago.

Pacific shot 10-of-50 (20%) including 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3 in that blowout loss to St. Mary's.  But the Tigers have been much more competitive since that defeat.  They only lost by 9 as 24.5-point home dogs to Gonzaga, by 5 as 2.5-point home dogs to Portland and by 6 as 22-point dogs at San Francisco.  They are grossly undervalued right now due to that blowout loss to St. Mary's.

Pacific is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 points per game or more after 15-plus games.  This one will be a lot closer than this line indicates simply because the Tigers want to redeem themselves and the Gaels want nothing to do with this game in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pacific Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +3

The Utah Jazz want revenge from a 129-134 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 18th.  They are fully healthy and the fresher team right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 123-108 home win over the Bucks to improve to 16-7 SU & 17-5-1 ATS at home this season the best ATS record at home in the entire NBA.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  This rough stretch has injuries piling up with Isaiah Joe out and Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace all questionable.  One of the Thunder's biggest strengths is their depth, and that is really getting tested right now.

The Thunder needed double-OT to dispatch of the lowly Toronto Raptors as 8.5-point favorites last time out.  I don't believe they should be favored on the road tonight given how tired they are and the fact that they now have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City and play an elite home team in the Jazz.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge this season.  The Jazz are 12-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Plays on underdogs (Utah) - after scoring 115 points or more in two consecutive games against an opponent that scored 135 points or more last game are 46-14 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5

Minnesota is the best covering team in the entire country going 14-7 SU & 18-3 ATS.  That includes 12-3 SU & 14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Gophers continue to lack the respect they deserve as 3.5-point home dogs to the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Minnesota wants revenge from a 76-66 loss at Michigan State on January 18th just three weeks ago.  But PG Elijah Hawkins (8.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) missed that game for the Gophers.  He is their floor general and not having him on the road against the Spartans was a massive loss.  Having him back for the rematch will make a massive difference.

Michigan State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.  The Spartans are 1-3 SU in their last four Big Ten road game with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1

I love the spot for Oklahoma tonight.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They are back home tonight where they are 11-2 SU at home this season.

BYU is coming off consecutive wins over Texas at home and at West Virginia.  This is a tough travel spot for the Cougars traveling from Provo to Morgantown and now all the way to Norman.  This is a tired BYU team that I think runs out of gas tonight against a Sooners team that wants it more.

BYU is 64-96 ATS in its last 160 road games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Porter Moser is 9-2 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game as the coach of Oklahoma.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* Clemson/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

The UNC Tar Heels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 93-84 win Saturday night against their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  They already beat Clemson on the road earlier this season and won't be that motivated to beat them again.

Clemson goes from a 3-point home favorite against UNC in that first meeting to an 8.5-point road dog in the rematch.  That's a massive adjustment.  The Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after losing two of their last three.  They lost by a single point at Duke and lost by 1 at home to Virginia.

Clemson has some 3-point luck coming their way.  The Tigers shot 1-of-18 (5.6%) from 3 against North Carolina in that first meeting.  They are shooting 30.1% from 3 in ACC play but are a much better shooting team than that making 35.2% on the season.  Opponents are only making 26.8% from 3 against UNC in ACC play, so the Tar Heels are due for some regression in that department.  Opponents are hitting 37.3% from 3 against Clemson in ACC play, so they are due for some positive regression.  The Tigers have been one of the most unlucky teams in the ACC.

Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Georgia Tech OVER 150

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.7 points per game this season.  In fact, 11 of Wake Forest's last 12 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 25th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech ranks 94th in adjusted offense and 182nd in adjusted defense making them more of an OVER team.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

Wake Forest is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games after scoring 95 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -3.5

What more does South Carolina have to do to get some respect? The Gamecocks are 19-3 SU & 16-5 ATS this season including 11-1 SU at home.  They have covered 5 straight coming into this one with upset road wins at Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia as well as home wins over Kentucky by 17 and Missouri by 8.

Ole Miss has not fared well on the road in SEC play.  The Rebels are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four road games losing by 26 at Tennessee, by 9 at LSU and by 23 at Auburn with their lone road win coming against an overrated Texas A&M team.

South Carolina is a balanced team that ranks 58th in adjusted offense and 42nd in adjusted defense.  They are 24th in effective FG percentage defense and only allow 32.2% 3-point shooting.  Ole Miss is great on offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are 352nd in allowing offensive rebounds defensively.  They rely heavily on the 3-pointer on offense, making this a great matchup for South Carolina.  They Gamecocks will dominate on the glass in this one as well which will be the key to victory.

South Carolina is 11-1 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Gamecocks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game.  Bet South Carolina Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have done a lot of this damage without key players in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  But both are back healthy now and the Cavaliers are as close to full strength as they have been all season.

I like them to cover this short number at home against a Sacramento Kings team that is in a tough spot tonight.  The Kings have to be fatigued playing their 7th consecutive road game tonight.  They will also be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers tonight.

Sacramento is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Cleveland is 12-4 ATS against good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after covering four of its last five against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +14

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-108 road loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday.  Now they get to play the Nuggets again here just two days later on Sunday.  They will be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-34 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last three games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  They only lost by 12 as 14-point road dogs to the Nuggets and Jerami Grant was a late scratch with back tightness.  There's a chance they get Grant back today, but having Simons, Brogdon, Ayton and Henderson healthy and playing is enough.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they get everyone's best shot.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Nuggets aren't going to be all that motivated to beat Portland again, which is going to make it tough to get margin.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Night Line Mistake on Illinois -9.5

Nebraska has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country.  The Huskers haven't lost a Big Ten home game, but it is also true they haven't won a Big Ten road game.  The Huskers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their five Big Ten road games losing by 11 at Minnesota, by 16 at Wisconsin, by 18 at Iowa, by 5 at Rutgers and by 22 at Maryland.

Now this is a terrible spot for the Huskers coming off their big OT win over Wisconsin at home on Thursday.  They have just two days off in between games to get ready for this game at Illinois.  They are a banged up team right now with a laundry list of injuries to boot.

Now they must travel to face a rested Illinois team that has had the last four days off since a 87-75 win at Ohio State.  The Fighting Illini have been one of the most underrated teams in the country going 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They just got their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. back and are a real threat to win the Big Ten and make a deep run in the tournament.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits today to give us the cover.

Illinois is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Nebraska with the last two wins coming by 16 points each.  Nebraska is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten road games.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin CBS No-Brainer on Wisconsin +2.5

The Wisconsin Badgers should not be home underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers today.  The Badgers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  This will be Purdue's toughest road test of the entire season today.

Purdue's six Big Ten road games have come against Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers.  They lost at Northwestern and lost by 16 at Nebraska as 7.5-point favorites.  Wisconsin took Nebraska to OT last time out and lost in what was a lookahead spot.  They will come back fully focused today.

Purdue is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Boilermakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  The Badgers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Wisconsin is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Purdue with both narrow losses coming by 4 and 2 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

20* Lakers/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 15-2 UNDER in their last 17 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host the Los Angeles Lakers on ABC.

The Knicks are missing Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes right now and OG Anunoby is questionable after missing the past couple games.  The Knicks have had to rely on defense more than ever of late without these guys.  They struggle to get easy baskets on offense with only Jalen Brunson and DiVincenzo doing the heavy lifting without them.

The Lakers have a bunch of injuries of their own that are hampering them offensively and forcing them to rely more on defense.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable after missing the last game, and Jared Vanderbilt and Cam Reddish are both out.  The Lakers went for just 219 combined points with the Celtics last time out.

The Lakers and Knicks have combined for 223 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Syracuse/Wake Forest OVER 150.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 79.8 points per game this season.  In fact, 10 of Wake Forest's last 11 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 38th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

It is also too low for a game involving Syracuse, which is another dead nuts OVER team.  The Orange rank 41st in adjusted tempo this season.  They just combined for 155 points with Boston College last time out and have allowed 49.2% or higher shooting in three consecutive games.

Wake Forest and Syracuse have combined for at least 151 points in three of their last four meetings.  Syracuse is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 conference road games.  Wake Forest is 32-19 OVER in its last 51 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oregon State +8

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-6 SU in those six games with all six losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 15-point home loss to UCLA and a 9-point home loss to Oregon in their last two games coming in.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon State has been grossly undervalued in Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with three road losses by 8 points or fewer during this stretch.  They beat USC 86-70 at home to start this stretch on January 30th.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 153.5

This is a matchup between two of the best defensive teams in the country.  North Carolina ranks 4th in adjusted defense while Duke ranks 30th.  UNC likes to try to get out in transition, but Duke is great at not allowing fast break points.  The same can be said for UNC.

Duke is 6-2 UNDER in all road games this season and we're seeing just 141.5 combined points per game in these games.  UNC is 9-1 UNDER vs. conference opponents this season.  Duke is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine road games off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 Saturday road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -5

Indiana State wants revenge from a 89-78 loss at Drake on January 10th.  The Bulldogs shot the lights out in that game going 10-of-25 (40%) from 3.  They will be much less comfortable on the road in the rematch tonight.

The Sycamores are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season outscoring their opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 90.6 points per game and allowing 64.1 points per game at home.  

Drake is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five road games losing outright as 7-point favorites at UAB, outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont and outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB.  This will be Drake's toughest road test of the season tonight.

Drake is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Sycamores are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are as healthy as they have been all season and improving rapidly under first-year head coach Josh Eilert.  The Mountaineers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with outright upsets over Texas as 6-point dogs, Kansas as 10-point dogs and Cincinnati as 4-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are once again catching too many points at home against BYU as 7.5-point dogs today.  This is a long road trip for the Cougars and one of their toughest of the season.  They lost their last road game at Texas Tech, only beat UCF by 5 and lost at Baylor by 9 in their last three road games.

West Virginia is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 home games off a home win.  The Mountaineers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games vs. good offensive teams that score 84 points per game or more.  The Big 12 highway will cool the Cougars off once again today.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -4

Texas Tech is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games overall with its only two losses coming on the road to Houston and TCU, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.  The Red Raiders upset both Texas and Oklahoma on the road during this stretch.

Off that road loss to TCU, the Red Raiders return home today where they are 11-0 SU on the season.  They take on a Cincinnati team that has been vulnerable on the road.  The Bearcats are 1-5 SU in their last six games played away from home, including an upset loss at West Virginia last time out.

This is a tough spot for Cincinnati having just two days in between games flying back from West Virginia and now flying out to Lubbock.  The Red Raiders have had the last three days off and very little travel from TCU back to Lubbock.  The spot really favors the home team as a result.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +10.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their poor 7-14 SU record.  But the Fighting Irish have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and they haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.

Now they are catching double-digits against a Pittsburgh team that hasn't been very good at home this season.  The Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five ACC home games this season with their lone win coming by 5 points, and all four losses coming by 9 points or more.

Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +17.5

Florida Atlantic has been grossly overvalued due to making the Final 4 last year.  They also gets their opponents' best shots with a target on their back as well.  The expectations from that Final 4 run coupled with that target have made it very difficult for the Owls to live up to expectations.

Florida Atlantic is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Owls haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 15 points, making for an 11-0 system backing Tulsa pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.

Tulsa is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Tulsa has just one loss by more than 15 points the entire season.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2

This is a good time to 'buy low' on Utah coming off two consecutive road losses.  The Utes are a much different team at home.  Indeed, they are 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.

Now they take on a Colorado team that has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last several seasons.  That has been the case again this season as Colorado is 12-0 at home but just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in all games played away from Boulder.

Utah is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Colorado.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso PK

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-16 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  Now they are going to get rewarded for their efforts with a SU victory at home Saturday.

Valparaiso wants revenge from a 78-75 loss at Evansville just two weeks ago on January 17th.  They lost by just 3 despite Evansville shooting 50.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3.  They aren't going to shoot that well on the road this time around.

Valparaiso is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Evansville.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 SU in their last five road games with losses by 7, 49, 36, 14 and 18 points.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Charlotte -6.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 13-7 SU & 12-6 ATS this season.  They have been especially dominant at home, going 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  They beat FAU, North Texas and UAB at home this season, which are three of their biggest contenders to win the AAC.

Now they take on lowly East Carolina, which has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Pirates have lost by 15 at FAU and by 8 at UAB and they won't be able to hang with Charlotte, either.

The 49ers have a big rest and preparation advantage heading into this one.  They have had the last week off since upsetting Tulane 75-71 as 3.5-point road dogs last time out.  They improved to 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  ECU just lost 71-60 at home to South Florida on Wednesday and now only has two days to get ready for Charlotte.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games after playing a road game.  Charlotte is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine home meetings with East Carolina.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota PK

Northwestern is coming off a crushing 105-96 (OT) loss to Purdue on Wednesday.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice.  I fully expect the Wildcats to be flat and tired today after having just two days off in between games.

Minnesota is rested and ready to go after beating Penn State 83-74 last Saturday.  The Golden Gophers have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Northwestern.  I expect them to put it to use today and get the job done.

Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Gophers have gone 13-7 SU & 17-3 ATS this season.  That includes 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS at home.  Northwestern is going to cool off from 3 today as Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in thier last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/TCU OVER 149

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted offense.  They like to get out and run and will control the tempo playing at home today.  They are scoring 83.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting, including 85.5 points per game on 50.3% shooting at home.

Texas ranks 25th in adjusted offense.  The Longhorns are scoring 76.6 points per game on 48% shooting.  They have the guards to get out and run with TCU as well.  The Longhorns have scored at least 71 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Texas is 7-1 OVER in conference games this season.  TCU is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 games after scoring 85 points or more in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-2 in TCU's last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of them.  Texas and their opponents have combined for at least 145 points in seven of their last eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.  

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's.  The Red Storm have lost four of their last five games with three of those losses coming on the road and a 1-point home loss to Marquette.  They will be more motivated to win this game against UConn than any other game all season.

The Red Storm are also out for revenge from a 69-65 road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Now they get them at home where they are 8-2 SU with that 1-point loss to Marquette being their lone home loss in conference play.  They beat Xavier by 15, Butler by 16, Providence by 2 and Villanova by 20 in their other four Big East home games.

Alex Karaban (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is questionable for the Huskies today after suffering an ankle injury against Providence last time out.  Rick Pitino is 50-26 ATS when revenging a road loss as a head coach.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-33 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last two games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  Now they are catching 12.5 points to the Denver Nuggets, and they won't have a letdown tonight with this opportunity to take down the defending champs.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they are not healthy.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after missing their last game as well.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +12

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  These are the types of teams you can really make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor 6-41 SU record so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But they keep showing up every night.

The Pistons pulled the outright upset 120-104 as 12.5-point dogs in their last home game over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They also took the Cavaliers to the wire on the road last time out in a 128-121 loss as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points tonight at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they did lose by 10 at Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites two games back to give these teams a common opponent.  And they won't be all that motivated to beat Detroit tonight.  This will be their 5th road game in 8 days as well and they are starting to run out of gas.  Detroit will be playing its 2nd game in 5 days and will be the fresher team.

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Clippers) - a hot team winning 12 or more of their last 15 games, a tired team playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -7.5

Dayton is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 17-3 this season including 10-0 at home.  They rank 16th in adjusted offense and 56th in adjusted defense as head coach Anthony Grant has the most efficient offensive team he has had in his time at Dayton.

St. Bonaventure is getting too much respect from its consecutive home wins over St. Joe's and VCU.  The Bonnies have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 11 at Richmond, by 9 at George Mason and by 4 at Duquesne, which was previously 0-6 in conference play prior to that win.

The Bonnies really struggle on the offensive end, which is why I don't think they can keep up with the Flyers.  They have shot 40% or less in six of their last nine games overall.  Dayton has won 12 of its last 14 home meetings with St. Bonaventure, including four straight home wins in this series with the last three coming by 18, 26 and 10 points.  Bet Dayton Friday.

15* Oregon/USC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-5 SU in those five games with all five losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 50-65 home loss to UCLA last time out.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon has gotten healthy and is playing like a legit contender in the Pac-12.  The Ducks are 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Colorado and Utah which are two very tough places to play, and at home to Arizona.

Oregon has had little trouble winning at USC.  The Ducks are 14-8 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to USC.  Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 80 points or more.  USC is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 home games after scoring 55 points or less.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

20* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -4.5

The Utah Jazz return home highly motivated for a victory off two blowout road losses at Brooklyn and at New York on back-to-back days.  They get exactly the team they need to get back on track in the injury-ravaged Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers are without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.8 PPG) and could be without Tyrese Maxey (25.7 PPG, 6.6 APG), who has missed the last three games with injury.  The 76ers are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in eight days and in altitude in Salt Lake City to boot.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.

Utah is 15-6 SU & 16-4-1 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are fully healthy right now to boot.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5

This number has been set too high for a rivalry game between North Dakota State and South Dakota State tonight.  Asking the Jackrabbits to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Each of the last 12 meetings between South Dakota State and North Dakota State were decided by 10 points or less.  11 of those 12 meetings were decided by 6 points or fewer.  The Bison haven't lost to the Jackrabbits by more than 6 points in any of their last 12 meetings, making for a 12-0 system backing them pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet North Dakota State Thursday.

15* Bucks/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are the team you want to back when they are fully healthy and fade when they are not.  It makes as big a difference to them as any team in the NBA.  Right now they are fully healthy with Grant, Brogdon, Simons, Ayton and Henderson all playing.

We saw what they were capable of when that's the case last time out upsetting the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs.  They are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games with outright upsets at home against Brooklyn as 7-point dogs, at home against Indiana as 8-point dogs, at Houston as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at OKC as 14-point dogs.  Most of their losses were when they weren't fully healthy.

Now the Blazers are once again catching too many points at home tonight as 10.5-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are in transition right now with the switch at head coach in Doc Rivers.  They are fade material in the immediate future.  He isn't going to fix their defense as the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating, which is why they struggle to get margin on teams.  Despite being 32-15 SU, the Bucks have just 11 wins by more than 11 points.

The Blazers will be giving their best effort tonight with this game on National TV on ESPN, and that effort should be good enough to stay within this inflated number.  Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 144.5

Rutgers is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Scarlet Knights rank 9th in adjusted defense and 257th in adjusted offense.  This total of 144.5 is way too high for a game involving Rutgers.

A big reason it is higher than normal is because Penn State does play faster than every other Big Ten team, but they aren't going to control the tempo on the road here.  Rutgers is going to control the tempo and slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Rutgers' last five home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all five would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 128 points with Purdue, 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

The UNDER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between Penn State and Rutgers with 142 or fewer combined points in all 10 meetings, including 133 or fewer combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +20.5

The Drake Bulldogs are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off a 77-63 home win as 9.5-point favorites against their in-state rivals in Northern Iowa, who were without their best player.  And now they have an even bigger game on deck on the road Saturday at Indiana State that is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley.

Sandwiched in between those games is this contest against Valparaiso, which has one of the worst records in the conference.  The Bulldogs are just going to feel like they can show up and win this one, and they won't be giving the Beacons their full attention.  So getting 20.5 points with Valpo is a tremendous value tonight given the awful spot for Drake.

But this Valpo team has been no pushover.  The Beacons have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are much better than they get credit for.  They haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 11 points.  They are 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch losing by 6 as 12.5-point dogs at Illinois-Chicago, winning outright at Illinois State by 9 as 10-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Evansville as 7-point dogs and losing by just 6 at Southern Illinois as 13.5-point dogs.

Valparaiso is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Drake.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.  Drake hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Valpo by more than 18 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Beacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  The Beacons are 8-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Wizards OVER 236.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  But because they have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, we are getting a discount on this over.  That leaves us with a great opportunity to 'buy low' on this OVER.

The Clippers are an offensive juggernaut right now that they are fully healthy.  They have scored 125 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The three exceptions were against Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota, which are three of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They will get 125-plus tonight which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Wizards are 23-8 OVER in their last 31 home games off an ATS win.  Washington home games are averaging 241.5 combined points per game this season.  Washington is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points pre game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 143

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.2 points per game this season.  They are allowing 79.6 points per game in all games played away from home.  This total is 143 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

In fact, nine of Wake Forest's last 10 games have seen 147 or more combined points, which makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143-point total.  Pitt is more of an under team than an over team, but the Panthers will get theirs on offense and this game will sail OVER.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Pitt and Wake Forest with 144 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  The last two meetings saw 160 and 166 combined points.  The OVER is 14-2 in Wake's last 16 January games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Wake Forest +2

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  They will be the much fresher team as they have been off since January 22nd and have had eight days off in between games.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset at Pitt tonight.

Pitt is in a brutal spot coming off three consecutive road games against Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami.  This is a tired Panthers team and one that is in a bit of a letdown spot after winning two of those three games on the highway.

Pitt has one of the worst home-court advantages in the ACC.  Indeed, the Panthers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home in ACC play losing by 9 as 1.5-point favorites to Clemson, by 11 as 6.5-point favorites to Syracuse, by 22 as 5-point dogs to Duke and by 13 as 3.5-point dogs to UNC.  They fall to 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in ACC play tonight.

Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4

West Virginia is as healthy as they have been all season right now and a dangerous team in the Big 12 moving forward as a result.  We have seen that on display in their last two home games as the Mountaineers pulled off the outright upsets over Kansas 91-85 as 10-point dogs and Texas 76-73 as 6-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are catching 4 points at home tonight to the Cincinnati Bearcats in a game I fully expect them to win outright.  Cincinnati is coming off a 68-57 home win over UCF against a Knights team that was missing two key players.  The Bearcats were 1-4 SU in their previous five games with their lone win coming by 4 at home over TCU.  They have only played six games away from home all season and are 2-4 SU in those games.

Cincinnati is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss PK

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect? The Rebels are 17-3 SU this season including a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Chris Beard is making an immediate impact on this team in his first season and proving he's one of the best head coaches in the country.

Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset home win over Auburn.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its three SEC road games this season losing by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina, losing by 13 as 6.5-point dogs at Kentucky and losing by 9 as 4.5-point dogs at Florida.

Ole Miss is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in SEC home games this season beating Florida by 18 as 3-point dogs, beating Vanderbilt by 13 as 10-point favorites and crushing Arkansas by 26 as 8.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers this season.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Toronto Raptors traded away two of their best players in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.  Both are already making major impacts on their new teams in the Pacers and Knicks, respectively.  The two players they got back in the Anunoby trade in Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are currently hurt and out tonight.

What's left of this Toronto team outside of Scottie Barnes just isn't very good.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state.  That has shown of late as the Raptors are now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games with four of those five losses coming by 6 points or more.

The Bulls are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  The two losses during this stretch came on the road at Phoenix by 2 at the buzzer and at the Lakers by 9.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games beating Memphis by 29, Houston by 5, Charlotte by 13 and Philadelphia by 13.

Chicago is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/TCU OVER 147

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 64th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  Now they play a Texas Tech team that ranks 16th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs will control the tempo playing at home in an up and down game, and both teams are going to be very efficient in scoring the basketball.

We saw that on display over the weekend with TCU beating Baylor 105-102 in OT and Texas Tech beating Oklahoma 85-84 in regulation.  The Red Raiders have scored at least 76 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The Hornets Frogs have scored at least 77 points in five of their last eight games overall and 72 or more in seven of those eight.

In their final meeting last season TCU beat Texas Tech 83-82 for 165 combined points.  It will be more of the same here again tonight as many realize TCU is a dead nuts OVER team, but most don't realize that Texas Tech has been the most efficient offensive team in Big 12 play this season.

Texas Tech is 11-3 OVER in its last 14 road games.  TCU is 7-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game this season.  The Red Raidres are 9-2 OVER vs. good shooting teams making 45% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 231

This total has been inflated due to the Lakers going over the total in five consecutive games coming in.  That includes their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win over the Warriors on Saturday in a game that was tied 118-118 at the end of regulation for 236 combined points.

After playing a bunch of over teams during this stretch, now the Lakers take on a Houston Rockets team that is a dead nuts UNDER team with the way they play.  Houston ranks 20th in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.  The Lakers rank just 20th in offensive rating and a respectable 14th in defensive rating.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Lakers and Rockets.  In their two meetings this season, they combined for just 204 and 209 points.  Houston is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after outrebounding its last two opponents by 15 boards or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot off their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win at Golden State Saturday night.  They are already 2-0 SU against the Houston Rockets this season winning both meetings at home, so they won't be all that motivated to beat this team again.

The Houston Rockets will be motivated playing with double-revenge.  The Rockets are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and finally get the Lakers at home this time around.  Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Los Angeles with three outright upsets.  The Lakers are 9-15 SU on the road this season.

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Los Angeles is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games off two or more consecutive wins.  Darwin Ham is 6-20 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wizards/Spurs OVER 240

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the San Antonio Spurs.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace and 29th in defensive rating while the Spurs rank 4th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the Wizards and Spurs and they both sailed OVER the total.  The Wizards won 136-124 for 260 combined points in their final meeting last season.  But more importantly, the Spurs won 131-127 for 258 combined points on January 20th just over a week ago today.  

The OVER is now 5-1 in the last six meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs and Wizards have combined for at least 241 points in eight of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -8

The New York Knicks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall since trading for OG Anunoby.  That includes home wins over the Nuggets by 38 and the Heat by 16 in their last two games coming in.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Hornets just traded away Terry Rozier and now their best player in LaMelo Ball is questionable tonight and likely won't go.  They were already without Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward.  This is one of the least talented teams in the NBA in their current state.

The Hornets are 3-21 SU in their last 24 games overall.  Charlotte is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall and has rarely been competitive.  The Hornets are coming off a pair of blowout home losses to the Jazz by 12 and the Rockets by 34.

The Knicks own the Hornets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with them this season winning by 22 and 24 at home as well as by 14 on the road.  New York is 16-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  It will be more of the same tonight with the Knicks winning by double-digits.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +3.5

I love the spot for Virginia Tech tonight.  They are coming off a 91-67 blowout home victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday and get to stay at home here.  They will be the much fresher team in this matchup despite playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

Duke will also be playing its 2nd game in 3 days but has to travel.  The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy in their 72-71 win over Clemson on Saturday at home.  They also won in dramatic fashion with two free throws just before the buzzer to eek out the win.  Now they are primed for a letdown as well.

Virginia Tech has a big home-court advantage going 10-1 SU at home this season.  The lone loss came by 4 points to Miami.  The Hokies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blue Devils and always play them tough in Blacksburg.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings.

Virginia Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  I expect the Hokies to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -6.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are coming off a pair of single-digit road losses to Phoenix and the LA Lakers.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover and now take a big step down in class against the Portland Trail Blazers.  This one has blowout written all over it.

Portland is 4-10 in its last 14 games overall and just cannot stay healthy.  They lost both Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson to injury in the 1H of their 116-100 road loss to the Spurs on Friday.  Now they will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days and returning home from a four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home from an extended road trip.

Grant, Henderson, Malcolm Brodgon, Anfernee Simons and Jabari Walker are all questionable to play tonight.  Sheadon Sharpe is out.  Depending how this injury news breaks, the Bulls could close as double-digit favorites.  There's just not much talent for the Blazers outside of these guys that are questionable or out.

Portland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after covering four or five of its last six ATS.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total.  They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT.  But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds.

The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL.  We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior.  The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens.

Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers.  But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college.  Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now.  

The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series.  That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense.  But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense.

With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense.  They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season.  The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors.  But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara.

This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past.  The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch.  Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush.  They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games.  For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense.

San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season.  That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher.

The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers.  The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon.

The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week.  LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable.  Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week.  This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season.

KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season.  When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills.  They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead.

With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER.  The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs.  They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills.  They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards.

No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season.  We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy.  They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers.  I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points.  Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City.  The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Rutgers UNDER 142

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team.  Rutgers ranks 13th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team as well.  It's safe to say points will be very hard to come by in this game between Purdue and Rutgers Sunday.

Five of the last seven meetings between Purdue and Rutgers have seen 138 or fewer combined points.  This total of 142 is too high today when you look at the head-to-head series.

Rutgers' last four home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all four would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

Rutgers is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Purdue has went over the total in five of its last six against bad defensive teams and that has inflated this total as well.    We'll take advantage of the value and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on North Texas +9.5

Florida Atlantic is grossly overvalued right now.  The Owls are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone cover coming in a 13-point win over lowly Rice as a 12-point favorites.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 15 points.  You're paying a tax on FAU after making the Final 4 last year, and they just get everyone's best shot now with a target on their back.

I think North Texas' best shot will be good enough to stay within single-digits today if not pull off the outright upset.  The Mean Green are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just recently got back two of their top five scorers in Rubin Jones (11.7 PPG) and John Buggs III (7.5 PPG) from injury and are at full strength after these two have both been out for most of January.  Having them back makes them a real contender moving forward.

This has been a very tightly-contested series in recent meetings with each of the last three meetings being decided by 4 points or less.  FAU hasn't beaten North Texas by more than 6 points in any of their last five meetings.  Asking the Owls to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet North Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Clippers had two days off before their 127-107 win in Toronto last night.  They made such easy work of the Raptors that they didn't have to play their starters big minutes.

The Clippers will still be plenty fresh and motivated to try and knock off the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Clippers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall with the two losses coming by 3 points to the Lakers and by 4 to the Timberwolves.  So the Clippers would be 14-0 ATS with a line of +7.5 in their last 14 games.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 7.5 points.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis and they are much less efficient without him.  They should not be favored by 7.5 without Porzingis, who would have been a matchup nightmare for the Clippers in their current state.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just lost 138-104 at home to the Houston Rockets last night, and their effort won't be any better tonight.  They traded away Terry Rozier and now they are even more short-handed without Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams already.

The Utah Jazz will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They blew out the Wizards 123-108 on the road last time out and will win this game by double-digits as well to get us the win and cover.  The Jazz are 13-6 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.

Charlotte is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  Utah is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5

I love the spot for Penn State tonight.  The Nittany Lions have had the last week off to rest and get ready for Minnesota.  They were last seen at home upsetting Wisconsin 87-83 and have a pretty great home-court advantage going 8-2 SU at home this season.

They will certainly have the rest advantage over Minnesota, which lost 61-59 at home to Wisconsin on Tuesday.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a young team like Minnesota twice.  It was their biggest rivals in the Badgers and they missed several point blank layups at the end to tie the game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Penn State today.

The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 January home games.  Penn State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games off a conference road loss.  The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gophers.  Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison +2.5

I love the spot for James Madison today.  They will be out for revenge from a 59-55 home loss to Appalachian State as 7-point favorites on January 13th exactly two weeks ago today.  Now the books have adjusted this number 9.5 points for flipping home courts, which is way too big of an adjustment.

The spot really favors James Madison.  They have had the last two days off after making easy work of Old Dominion 78-62 on the road on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Appalachian State only has one day off in between games after beating Georgia Southern 84-74 as a 16-point favorite on Thursday.

The Dukes have actually played their best basketball on the highway this season going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in all true/neutral road games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* MVC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Indiana State OVER 151.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 37th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted offense.  They can simply fill it up and quickly on offense averaging 85.9 points per game on the season and 90.0 points per game at home.

Bradley has their best offensive team of the Brian Wardle era but they aren't as good defensively as they have been in previous years.  They rank 76th in adjusted offense while scoring 80.0 points per game in conference play this season.

Indiana State beat Bradley 85-77 on the road in their first meeting this season for 162 combined points.  Bradley only shot 44.6% as a team and 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in that game and can be expected to shoot it a little better in the rematch.  Indiana State did what it does and was right on par with its season averages in that first meeting and can be expected to top 80 in the rematch as well.

Bradley is 13-6 OVER In all games this season.  Indiana State is 21-11 OVER in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana State's last five home games have all seen 152 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.