Winning Sports Picks

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +21

Oklahoma (2-0) has opened with a few cupcakes in non-conference play to start the season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 in its opener as a 34-point favorite, then came back with a resounding 52-7 road victory over Tulsa as a 24-point favorite last week.

Tennessee (2-0) looked real good in dismantling Utah State by a final of 38-7 as only a 3-point home favorite in its opener. It came back last week and topped Arkansas State 34-19 as a 16-point favorite. Now, it steps out of Knoxville for its first road game of the season.

I was real big on Tennessee coming into the season, and I have seen nothing to change my opinion that this is one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes that rank right up there with some of the elite recruiting teams in the SEC. That appears to already be paying off in the early going in 2014.

The Volunteers are getting solid production from their offense, averaging 36.0 points and 399.0 yards per game thus far. Justin Worley is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 520 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. He has some real playmakers outside in Marquez North and Von Pearson, who have combined for 15 receptions, 204 yards and three touchdowns. Jalen Hurd and Marlin Lane Jr. form a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Utah State and Arkansas State are no pushovers. The Aggies won 10 games and played in the MWC Title Game last year, while the Red Wolves won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title for a third straight season in 2013. I have been really impressed with this improved, athletic Tennessee defense in these two games. It has held those two teams to averages of 13.0 points and 287.5 total yards per game.

I had Oklahoma pegged as overvalued coming into the season after it beat Alabama in the BCS Sugar Bowl last year. The Crimson Tide were not up for that game at all. Oklahoma should not be this big of a favorite against an SEC team that is a sleeper to win the SEC East this season.

The Sooners have looked solid in wins over Louisiana Tech and Tulsa, but those two teams are inferior to the two that Tennessee has faced.  Louisiana Tech went just 4-8 last season and lost four times to teams that finished with losing records, while its four wins were against terrible competition.  Tulsa went just 3-9 last year as well.

Asking the Sooners to win by more than three touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much. Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 18-42 ATS in their last 60 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Tennessee is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 road games after one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Penn State/Rutgers Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -3

Penn State (2-0) has been impressive in the early going. It beat UCF over in Ireland as a 2.5-point underdog by a final of 26-24 in its opener. Then, it topped Akron 21-3 at home as a 14-point favorite last week.

Rutgers (2-0) pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season with a 41-38 win as a 7.5-point underdog in its opener at Washington State. It had a bit of a letdown last week against Howard at home, only winning by a final of 38-25.

I cannot give Rutgers that much credit for its 41-38 win at Washington State in its opener. That’s because the Cougars came back the next week and lost at Nevada to drop to 0-2 on the season, so they clearly aren’t very good this year.

That 13-point home win over Howard is pretty telling about Rutgers this year as they were a 38-point favorite in that contest. In fact, the Scarlet Knights were actually outgained 397-427 by Howard, or by 30 total yards. They arguably should have lost the game.

Penn State should have beaten UCF by more when you look at the box score. Indeed, it outgained UCF 511-246 for the game, but only won 26-24 because it committed three turnovers to try and give the game away. That +265 yardage differential couldn’t have been more impressive. This is a UCF team that played in the BCS Fiesta Bowl last year and beat Baylor 52-42. The Knights had nine starters back defensively this year as well, so to put up 511 yards against them is getting it done.

The Nittany Lions were nearly as dominant against Akron last week, and the final score was indicative of how dominant they were this time around. They won 21-3 while outgaining the Zips 425-277 for the game. The Zips are a team that I have playing in the MAC Title Game this year, so they are no pushovers. They even nearly upset Michigan on the road last year.

This would have been an even bigger blowout had the Nittany Lions not lost the turnover battle 3-0 to Akron. So, they have six turnovers already and something to work on for head coach James Franklin. If they quit turning it over, it’s scary how good this team could be.  The Nittany Lions have outgained their first two opponents 468-261.5 on average, while Rutgers had been outgained by its first two opponents 446.5-487.5.  I would argue Penn State has played the tougher schedule as well.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) – after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 78-35 (69%) ATS since 1992. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Rutgers is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 home games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 

The Nittany Lions have been informed earlier this week that they will be bowl eligible this season.  That fact should ignite a fire under this team as they enter Big Ten play.  Penn State is 22-2 in its 24 previous meetings with Rutgers, including 9-0 in nine all-time road meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +28

Notre Dame (2-0) couldn’t have looked more impressive in the early going. It beat Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite to open the season. Then, it shut out Michigan 31-0 as a 4-point favorite last week. That was the first time the Wolverines had been shut out since 1984.

Purdue (1-1) has opened the season with a pair of MAC teams. It beat Western Michigan 43-34 as a 7-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it fell to a better Central Michigan squad by a final of 17-38 as a 3-point home favorite.

The Fighting Irish are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off that huge win over Michigan last week, and it’s simply going to be tough to come back and give the kind of effort they gave last week en route to a 31-0 triumph. Meanwhile, the betting public has seen how impressive this team has looked, while they are not big on Purdue after the loss to Central Michigan last week. That has created some additional line value here on the Boilermakers.

Each of the last two years Notre Dame was expected to blow out Purdue and it did not. It won 20-17 as a 14-point home favorite in 2012, and then 31-24 as an 18-point road favorite in 2013. Four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less with Purdue going 4-1 ATS in those five contests. The Boilermakers just always seem to play the Irish tough, and I look for that to be the case again in 2014.

Purdue’s 17-38 loss to Central Michigan last week was nowhere near as big of a blowout as the final score would indicate. The Boilermakers were only outgained 326-333 for the game, but they gave it away by committing three turnovers.

Conversely, Notre Dame’s 31-0 win over Michigan was nowhere near the blowout it appeared. The Fighting Irish were actually outgained 280-289 for the game, but they were gifted four turnovers by the Wolverines.  The final score of that game should not have been 31-0 with only 280 yards of total offense for the Irish.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992. The Fighting Irish are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Purdue Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +116

The Cleveland Indians (76-70) are in a must-win situation from here on out.  They are four games back of both Kansas City and Seattle for the final wild card spot in the American League.  Every game is a must-win for them.

I like Cleveland's chances of winning tonight behind Danny Salazar.  This guy has really turned it on of late, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in his last three starts.

One of those starts came against Detroit on September 3, where Salazar pitched a complete game shutout in a 7-0 Cleveland win.  Salazar is 1-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in four career starts against the Tigers.

The Indians are 6-0 in Salazar's last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  The Tigers are 6-13 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cleveland is 6-1 in Salazar's last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Take the Indians Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami (Ohio) +33.5

The Michigan Wolverines will suffer a hangover from their embarrassing 31-0 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last week.  They were shut out for the first time since 1984.  A win over Miami (Ohio) is not going to mean anything to people judging them.  They know their next chance to make an impression comes next week against Utah and then in Big Ten play.  That's why they won't be motivated to face the Redhawks.

Meanwhile, this is like the Super Bowl for Miami (Ohio).  They would like to take a page out of Akron's book, which went into Michigan as a 37-point underdog and arguably should have pulled off the upset last year.  The Zips lost by a final of 24-28.  Just like Akron last year, this is a Miami (Ohio) team coming off a disastrous season, but one that is vastly improved over 2013.

Indeed, the Redhawks went 0-12 last year and were rarely competitive.  However, they now have 15 starters back in 2014 and are in Chuck Martin's first year on the job.  I have actually been very impressed with what I have seen from this team despite the fact that they are 0-2 thus far.  They have shown me enough to know that they can stay within five touchdowns of Michigan on the road Saturday.

Marshall is a team that many expect to go 12-0 this season.  Well, Miami (Ohio) only lost to Marshall 27-42 at home as a 24-point underdog in its opener.  This was even a 27-35 game with just over two minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before Marshall iced it with a touchdown.  In fact, the Redhawks were only outgained 418-432 for the game.  Putting up 418 yards against this solid Marshall defense is no joking matter.

Obviously, a 10-17 home loss to Eastern Kentucky as a 6-point favorite last week is concerning.  However, a closer look into the box score shows that the Redhawks should have won that game, and won it running away.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky 419-280 for the game, but they let the Colonels in it by committing six turnovers.  This Miami offense is averaging 418.5 yards per game through two games to really show its improvement.

Teams with 5-plus turnovers the previous week who are on the road the next week have covered the spread 64.3% of the time since 1989.  Michigan is 22-43 ATS after a game where it committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Miami (Ohio) Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Texas Tech SEC vs. Big 12 No-Brainer on Arkansas +1

Texas Tech (2-0) has survived a couple of scares already in the early going. It beat Central Arkansas 42-35 as a 34-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it went into UTEP and came away with a 30-26 road victory as a 21-point favorite last week.

Arkansas (1-1) fought tough against Auburn in its opener before being blown out in the second half and losing 21-45 as a 17-point road underdog. The Razorbacks would take out their frustration last week, winning 73-7 at home over Nicholls State as a 41.5-point favorite.

I’m just not real big on the Red Raiders this year. They haven’t done anything in the first two games to change my opinion.  In fact, they have validated it despite their 2-0 start. They do have 13 starters back this season, including nine on offense, but their four starters back on defense are what really concern me. They haven’t been able to slow down Central Arkansas and UTEP in the first two games, and I look for Arkansas to run wild on them Saturday.

The Red Raiders gave up 178 rushing yards and 406 total yards to Central Arkansas in their 7-point opening victory as a 34-point favorite. Then, they gave up 277 rushing yards to UTEP and were fortunate to come away with a 4-point victory as they needed a late score to take the lead. So, Texas Tech has allowed an average of 227 rushing yards per game through its first two contests.

Arkansas thrives behind a rushing attack that will be one of the best in the country this season. This is a team that returns 14 starters after only having 10 back last year and enter Year Two in Bret Bielema's system. That includes the top two returning rushers in Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD). The Razorbacks have averaged 324 rushing yards per game and 9.4 per carry through their first two games this season.

The Razorbacks are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. I simply love the match-up with the Razorbacks’ rushing attack against the Red Raiders’ porous run defense.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +7

Virginia is a team I have pegged as one of the most improved in the country this season.  I have seen nothing to change my opinion on the Cavaliers yet.  Head coach Mike London is fighting for his job this year.  He continues to put together tremendous recruiting classes, but has gotten few results.  With 17 starters back this year, this is clearly his best team yet.

That was on display in the season opener as Virginia lost at home to UCLA 20-28 as a 19-point underdog.  However, the Cavaliers should have never lost that game because they gave up three defensive touchdowns.  They limited a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards, while racking up 386 yards of offense themselves.  The Bruins were one of the favorites to make the four-team playoff this year, so that performance shows you what this Virginia team is capable of.

Yes, Virginia was fortunate to beat Richmond in blowout fashion as that game was a lost closer than the final of 45-13 would indicate.  They won the turnover battle 7-2 to aid their cause.  Still, the Cavaliers were only 14.5-point favorites int hat game, and they won by 32 points.  That is an in-state rivalry game that can sometimes be closer than it should be, and Virginia really took it to them.

Louisville is overvalued right now due to back-to-back blowout home wins.  It is getting too much respect for its 31-13 home victory over Miami.  Sure, the defense looked solid in that contest, but I honestly believe that Miami is nowhere near as good as they get credit for.  Brad Kaaya is a terrible quarterback, and he could do nothing against Louisville's defense.  Keep in mind that Kaaya is a freshman who was playing in his first game as well.  Look for the Cardinals to struggle in their first road game of the season against the improved Cavaliers.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

The Maryland Terrapins should be a much heavier favorite Saturday against the West Virginia Mountaineers.  I believe WVU's close loss to Alabama has it overvalued right now, while Maryland's close win at South Florida last week has it undervalued.  It's the perfect storm, and thus oddsmakers are giving us a gift with the Terrapins as only 3-point home favorites here.

Maryland has been arguably the most unlucky team in the country when it has come to injuries over the last three seasons under Randy Edsall.  Finally, in his 4th year, he has everyone healthy.  This team made a bowl game last year with only 11 starters back and all the injuries, and now they have 17 starters back and are a sleeper in the Big Ten.

CJ Brown is one of the most underrated dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, and he has one of the best WR duos in the land in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.  This team committed six turnovers last week, yet still found a way to beat South Florida 24-17 on the road.  Obviously, it should have been a bigger blowout, but the fact that they won with six turnovers is impressive in and of itself.

West Virginia went just 4-8 last season and lost two the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Iowa State.  Sure, this team is expected to be improved this year, but not enough to justify this 3-point spread.  They played an Alabama team that had questions at quarterback in their opener, and the Crimson Tide still racked up 538 yards in their 33-23 win over WVU that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Maryland had lost seven straight to West Virginia prior to last year's 37-0 victory on a neutral field.  This game was over at halftime as the Terrapins took a 30-0 lead into the break before calling off the dogs in the second half.  The Terrapins held the Mountaineers to just 175 total yards of offense while forcing six turnovers.  They will be just as good if not better on D in 2014 with nine starters and 13 of their top 15 tacklers back.

Edsall is 31-16 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  The Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Maryland Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +1.5 (-120)

The Houston Astros have been playing great every since manager Bo Porter was fired.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall despite being an underdog in eight of those contests.  I expect them to win tonight, but I'm taking them on the run line for some added insurance.

This is a tough spot for the Angels.  They will be returning from a 10-game road trip that saw them go 8-2.  That first home game back from a long road trip is tough on players because they have household obligations, which can be a distraction.  Also, the Angels have all but wrapped up the best record in the AL, so it could be tough to stay motivated.

I'll gladly fade C.J. Wilson, who is 11-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Houston is batting .447 against Wilson in his last three starts in the series, during which he's gone 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA.  He has allowed 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners over 10 1/3 innings during this stretch.

Houston is 45-23 against the run line (+17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Astros are 30-14 against the run line (+13.2 Units) vs. left-handed starters this season.  Houston is 70-45 against the run line (+15.5 Units) after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Oberholtzer is 13-4 against the run line (+8.7 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line.

20* Baylor/Buffalo ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Baylor -34.5

Baylor (2-0) has gotten off to another dominant start in 2014. It has managed to go 2-0 against the spread with back-to-back home wins over SMU (45-0) as a 31.5-point favorite and Northwestern State (70-6) as a 47-point favorite.

Buffalo (1-1) has played in a couple of nail biters to open the season. It only beat Duquesne (38-28) as a 28.5-point home favorite in its opener. It then went on the road and lost to Army (39-47) as a 3-point underdog.

Oddsmakers simply cannot set the spreads high enough for the Bears. They are the new Oregon of college football. They somehow still do not get the respect they deserve despite being a clear contender to make the four-team playoff. Art Briles led them to a Big 12 Title last year with an 11-2 season. He has been burning up the recruiting trails, and this year’s team is every bit as good as the one he fielded last year.

This team beat Northwestern State 70-6 last week without starting QB Bryce Petty and top receiver Antwan Goodley. They racked up 720 yards of offense in the win. Backup Seth Russell went 16 of 25 passing for 438 yards and five touchdowns. Freshman KD Cannon caught six balls for 223 yards and three scores. Baylor has so much depth that it’s simply “next man up”.  However, Petty is expected to return this week, while Goodley is doubtful.

Buffalo is a team that I am really down on this year. It has shown me nothing thus far to change my mind. The Bulls actually made a bowl game last year with an 8-5 record, but after having 16 returning starters, they now only have 11 back this year. They lose two key players to the NFL in Khalil Mack (100 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 3 INT) and Branden Oliver (1,535  rushing yards, 15 TD). They are going to take a major step back this season.

That effort against Duquesne in their opener just showed how much trouble the Bulls are in this season. They actually trailed Duquesne 24-28 early in the fourth quarter. They allowed 322 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Dillon Buechel. They only outgained Duquesne 472-373 for the game as well. They were a 28.5-point favorite and won by just 10.

Last year, Baylor beat Buffalo 70-13. It outgained the Bulls 781-363 for the game. Petty and Russell combined for 452 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Baylor rushed for 329 yards as a team.  I expect a very similar result in the rematch considering the Bears are just as strong as they were last year, while the Bulls clearly are not.

Plays on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (BAYLOR) – after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992. The Bears are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. The Bulls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Baylor Friday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-121)

I really do believe the Cubs will probably win outright today, but I'm going to take them on the run line for a little more insurance in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.  The Cubs will be motivated following six straight losses, and they have no problem playing the role of spoiler with all of their talented prospects seeing significant time down the stretch.

Tsuyoshi Wada makes this a very solid play.  There's no question he should be getting overlooked like he is here.  Wada has gone 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Cubs.

At the same time, Gerrit Cole is getting too much respect.  He has gone 8-5 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 18 starts.  Cole has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts as well.

The Pirates are in a tough spot here.  It's almost always tough to return from a long road trip for that first home game because there are too many distractions around the household for these players.  They return home from a 10-game trip here.

Chicago is 45-25 against the run line (+16.4 Units) after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games are 51-24 (68%, +23.8 units) over the last five seasons.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* Houston/BYU ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +19

I was big on BYU coming into the season and a little low on Houston.  I predicted BYU to win 10 games this year and still think they will.  I had Houston winning 9 games but regressing a little overall because of finishing +25 in turnover differential last year.

Well, BYU was certainly undervalued coming into the year as it has gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS through its first two games with blowout wins over UConn (35-10) and Texas (41-7).  Houston, meanwhile, was overvalued.  It has gone 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS with a loss to UTSA (7-27) and a win over Grambling (47-0) as a 49.5-point favorite.

Now, there is a ton of value to be had with backing Houston because the betting public is drooling over BYU after two straight blowout wins and covers.  The betting public is off of Houston after an 0-2 ATS start.  This has forced the oddsmakers to set the number tonight much higher than it should be.

Keep in mind that BYU has beaten two teams that had terrible quarterback play to aid their cause.  UConn is clearly an awful team this year, and Texas is down again, especially without QB David Ash, who missed the BYU game with a concussion.  That also makes this a bit of a letdown spot for BYU off such a big road win over the Longhorns.

Houston gave away the game to UTSA by committing six turnovers. It actually held the roadrunners to 263 total yards in the loss. You have to remember that this Houston team came very close to winning the American Athletic last season. It went 8-4 during the regular season with all four losses coming by 7 points or less. Those losses came to some very good teams in BYU (46-47), UCF (14-19), Louisville (13-20) and Cincinnati (17-24).

With 17 starters back, this Houston team is a real contender to win the AAC. All of these players will be out for revenge from that 1-point loss to the Cougars last season. John O’Korn, who completed 29 of 45 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, is back as the starting quarterback this year. Also back is Daniel Spencer and Deonte Greenberry at receiver. These two combined for 18 receptions, 254 yards and three touchdowns in that loss to BYU.

BYU is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games following a two-game road trip. BYU is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Plays against home favorites (BYU) – after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Houston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take Houston Thursday.

25* AFC North TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers/Ravens UNDER 44.5

If you play fantasy football, you don't want to start any offensive players when the Steelers and Ravens get together.  You certainly want to start both defenses, but you would be foolish to start any skill player on offense.  That's because these games are always low scoring.

Indeed, each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  Dating back further, 13 of the last 14 meetings have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 13-1 (93%) system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 44.5 points.

I just really believe this number has been inflated because both offenses actually played pretty well last week.  However, these teams know each other inside and out, so it's no surprise that when they get together the defenses dictate the game.  That will be the case again here in this first meeting in 2014.

This 44.5 number is the highest total set for a Baltimore/Pittsburgh game since 1997.  There has been a total of 43 set for this rivalry once since 1997, which was the highest over this time.  That tells you alone that there is some value in backing the under 44.5 points tonight.

The UNDER is 9-0 in Steelers last nine games during Week 2.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Steelers last 16 games vs. AFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Ravens last four September games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Ravens last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Brewers UNDER 8

The Miami Marlins (71-73) and Milwaukee Brewers (75-71) are both fighting to stay alive for one of the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They each send one of their best starters to the mound tonight, and I like for a pitcher's duel because of it.

Mike Fiers is the only starter in Milwaukee's rotation right now stepping up to the plate when the team needs him most.  The right-hander has gone 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.744 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has allowed just 9 earned runs and 31 base runners in 41 2/3 innings while striking out 46.

Nathan Eovaldi has been better than his 6-10 record with a 4.29 ERA would suggest.  He has posted a respectable 1.295 WHIP in his 29 starts this season.  Eovaldi has been at his best on the road, going 3-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 13 starts.

Eovaldi is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.   Eovaldi is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Marlins last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Fiers' last seven starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* LA Tech/North Texas Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +4

While both teams blew out the opposition last week, I clearly come away more impressed with Louisiana Tech’s performance than that of North Texas. The Bulldogs were a 15.5-point road underdog to a very good Louisiana team that is expected to win the Sun Belt this year. They won 48-20 in dominant fashion, outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 533-415 in the process.

The Bulldogs finally have a solid team under second-year head coach Skip Holtz. He only had seven starters back last year during a 4-8 campaign, and now he has 13 back in 2013. He also adds in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns against Louisiana. Also, Kenneth Dixon is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. He rushed for 184 yards and two touchdowns on only 12 carries against the Rajin’ Cajuns.

I am way down on North Texas this year as this is a rebuilding year for Dan McCarney. He got the Mean Green to a bowl game last year for the first time since 2004, but after having 17 starters back in 2013, they only have nine starters back this year. They only gained 94 total yards in the 7-38 loss to Texas. Their 43-6 win over SMU was also closer than the final score would indicate. They only gained 353 yards of total offense in the win, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.

Last year, North Texas did beat an inexperienced Louisiana Tech team 28-13. However, it scored 28 unanswered points in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. In fact, the Bulldogs outgained the Mean Green 404-386 for the game, which is saying something considering how down they were last year, while the Mean Green were extremely experienced. They lost the turnover battle 3-1, which proved to be the difference. The Mean Green were also aided by a defensive touchdown.  It's revenge time this year for the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games. Louisiana Tech is 14-5-1 ATS its last 20 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. North Texas is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros +1.5 (-101)

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value on the run line tonight.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall, which pretty much coincided with the firing of manager Bo Porter.  They have done so behind a team ERA of 2.04 during this stretch.

Houston calls up rookie Nick Tropeano from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make his big league debut tonight.  The right-hander went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA over 23 minor league games.  20 of those were starts, and he struck out 120 over 124 2/3 innings.  He'll have an advantage as the Mariners won't know what to expect.

Seattle gives the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma, who is one of the better starters in the big leagues, but he appears to be wearing down over the stretch run.  Indeed, Iwakuma has posted a 7.25 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs and 20 base runners over 13 2/3 innings.  He has given up exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts against Houston.

Houston is 44-23 against the run line (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Astros are 33-17 against the run line (+13.8 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Houston is 66-39 against the run line (+21.7 Units) after three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -121

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having one nine of their last 10 games overall.  Not surprisingly, this run coincided with a healthy return of Yadier Molina behind the plate.  The Cardinals are hitting .292 over their last 10 games and the pitching staff has compiled a 1.89 ERA in the victories.

Michael Wacha recently returned from the disabled list and was held to 50 pitches in his last outing.  He'll have a lot more leeway tonight.  Wacha is 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  The right-hander has gone 1-0 with a 0.48 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in three career starts against the Reds, giving up one earned run in 18 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati (67-77) is hitting .219 while losing 19 of its last 26 games.  Mike Leake is coming off his worst start of the season, surrendering seven runs and three homers in four innings of a 9-7 loss to Baltimore.  Leake is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career home starts against St. Louis, losing three straight behind a 6.75 ERA.

Cincinnati is 0-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.  The Reds are 0-7 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight games as a favorite.  St. Louis is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  These four trends combine for a 30-0 system backing St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -132

The Pittsburgh Pirates (75-68) have won four in a row to move into the final wild card spot in the National League.  They hold a 1.5-game lead over both the reeling Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.  I look for them to take down the Philadelphia Phillies (66-77) for a 5th straight victory tonight.

Edinson Volquez, like many others, has revived his career in Pittsburgh.  He has gone 11-7 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.261 WHIP over 27 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 road starts.  Volquez is 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  The right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA in six career starts against Philadelphia.  In his last two starts against the Phillies, he is 2-0 while allowing two earned runs in 13 innings.

David Buchanan has gotten a shot to be a part of Philadelphia's rotation this year with mixed results.  The right-hander is 6-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 16 starts, but 4-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in eight home starts.  Buchanan is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one career start against Pittsburgh, yielding three earned runs over six innings of a 2-3 loss on July 5th.

Volquez is 15-3 (+13.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Volquez is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 27-11 in their last 38 vs. a team with a losing record. 

Pittsburgh is 7-0 in Volquez's last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 6-0 in Volquez's last six starts with 5 days of rest.  The Phillies are 0-5 in Buchanan's last five starts.  Philadelphia is 0-5 in Buchanan's last five starts as an underdog.  The Pirates are 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 27-0 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Cardinals ESPN Monday Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3

Arizona won seven of its final nine games last year to finish 10-6 and in the running for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, those 10 wins were only good enough for third place within their own division. The Cardinals would have probably competed for a division title in any other division than the NFC West, which is stacked once again in 2014. Either way, it was a step in the right direction for this franchise in Bruce Arians’ first season on the job.

San Diego has had a knack for starting slow and finishing strong to make a run at the playoffs since Philip Rivers has been its starting quarterback. The 2013 season was no different as the Chargers won each of their final four games of the regular season to get to 9-7, which was good enough for the final wild card spot in the AFC. They would go into Cincinnati and win before giving Peyton Manning and the Broncos a run for their money on the road in the Divisional Round, ultimately losing 17-24.

As stated before, the Cardinals would have competed for a division title in any other division last year. I really liked what I saw from this team in the second half of the season. They were the only team to go into Seattle and come away with a victory over the last two years, which says a lot about what they are capable of. The defense shouldered the load, ranking 6th in the league in total defense (317.4 ypg) and 7th in scoring defense (20.2 ppg). This unit may take a small step back this year due to some personnel losses, but it’s still a better stop unit that San Diego’s.

Indeed, the Chargers ranked just 23rd in the league in total defense (366.5 ypg) last year. This unit has holes in a lot of places, but mostly up front along the defensive line as they lack pass rushers. I also think this is one of the worst linebacker corps in the league. The secondary gets a boost with some additions this offseason after being one of the worst units in the league last year.

Rivers had a big season last year, but that had a lot to do with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. With Whisenhunt gone to Tennessee, I look for Rivers and the offense to take a step back this year.  Calling the shots now will be first-time coordinator Frank Reich.  The strength of the Arizona defense is its secondary led by Patrick Peterson, and that makes this a good match-up for the Cardinals because the Chargers are without question a passing team.

Carson Palmer did make some mistakes last year, but he took care of the ball in the second half a lot better, and he is capable of doing that for a full season. He quietly threw for 4,274 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. The emergence of Michael Floyd (65 receptions, 1,041 yards, 5 TD) gives the Cardinals a solid 1-2 punch at receiver with Larry Fitzgerald (82, 954, 10 TD).

Andre Ellington, who didn’t have more than 12 touches in any game prior to Week 8, averaged 13.6 touches the rest of the way during their surge. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and now Arians wants him to be the focal point of the offense in 2014. The O-line will be vastly improved with the additions they made this offseason and a return to health of a couple key guys from injury.

The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in its last four Week 1 games. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass. Arians is 7-0 ATS in a home games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in all games he has coached. Arians is 13-4 ATS in dome games in all games he has coached.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -120

The Pittsburgh Pirates (74-68) have won three in a row to move ahead of Atlanta (74-69) and Milwaukee (74-69) for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are only a half-game ahead of both, so they won't be lacking any motivation in Philadelphia (66-76) for Game 1 of this series.

Jeff Locke is having a solid season for the Pirates.  The left-hander has gone 6-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  What stands out most is that Locke is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.

Kyle Kendrick, on the other hand, has not been very good for the Phillies.  The right-hander is 8-11 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.347 WHIP through 28 starts this year.  In his last two starts against Pittsburgh, Kendrick has gone 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA, giving up nine earned runs in 12 innings.

Pittsburgh is 10-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a game they hit four or more home runs over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 6-0 in Locke's last six starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the Pirates Monday.

15* Colts/Broncos NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -7.5

Denver came oh so close to winning the Super Bowl last year. It went 13-3 during the regular season and earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC behind a record-setting season from Peyton Manning. It would beat both San Diego and New England at home in the playoffs before getting destroyed by Seattle 43-8 in the Super Bowl. That left a lot of folks in Denver scratching their heads, and management felt they had to do something about it by upgrading the roster again this offseason.

There’s no question that Manning will want some revenge on his former team this year. He had to have a mix of emotions going into that game last year, and he did not play his best in a 33-39 loss. I look for him to put his best foot forward at home this time around without all the distractions. After all, he threw for an NFL-record 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns last year. The offense will be just fine with the loss of Eric Decker, because he has been replaced by Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Cody Latimer. Also, the offensive line gets back All-Pro left tackle Ryan Clady after he missed last year due to injury.

Somehow, the Broncos could actually be better this season. That’s because they upgraded the defense after a sub-par campaign on that side of the ball last year. They brought in pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, shutdown corner Aqib Talib, and underrated safety T.J. Ward. The Broncos should be able to take big leads with their explosive offense and preserve them with their improved defense this year, starting in Week 1 against the Colts.

Indianapolis has been extremely lucky to go 11-5 over the past two seasons. It has gone a ridiculous 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less the last two years, and that trend cannot keep up as they will regress. The Colts were also outgained (by 15.3 yards per game) on the season for a second consecutive year. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football, and they don’t have a running game to speak of. Too much is on Luck’s shoulders, and he cannot carry this team again.

Their defense is just too awful to compete with the elite teams in this league, which has shown in blowout losses to the Patriots in the playoffs each of the last two years. They also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs in the first round, who have one of the worst offenses in the league.  It's also worth noting that Robert Mathis (19.5 sacks last year) will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension.  He had 14 more seconds than second place on his team.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) – team that had a winning record last season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.  Take the Broncos Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Divisional ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

Tampa Bay just hasn’t been able to get anything going over the last few years. It has been through three head coaches since Jon Gruden’s 2007 team last made the playoffs. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last year and the season appeared lost. They showed some pride down the stretch, going 4-4 the rest of the way. One of those losses even came in overtime at Seattle, which was perhaps their most impressive performance of the season. Now, it’s up to Lovie Smith to try and turn things around in Tampa Bay.

I believe the Lovie Smith hiring was the best head coaching move this offseason. He was a solid head coach at Chicago, but the problem was that the Bears play in the same division as the Packers, so coming up in second place every year and narrowly missing the playoffs a lot of times just wasn’t cutting it apparently. The fact of the matter is that this guy is still one heck of a head coach. Players love playing for him, and the Buccaneers will welcome his style rather than Greg Schiano’s, which clearly did not work.

I really like the addition of Josh McCown at quarterback. He was every bit as good as Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, throwing 13 touchdowns and one interception in his place. He’ll have two big wide outs to work with in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, which is similar to what he had in Chicago. Also, Doug Martin missed most of last season due to injury, and he’s back healthy. The defense will be improved under Smith’s guidance as they are a much better fit for his cover 2 scheme.

Carolina is certainly going to be down this year. Management was handcuffed due to the salary cap, so it could not spend big money on free agents. It had to led go of its top three receivers from last year, and replacing them will be rookie Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant. The offensive line saw four different players retire this offseason, leaving Ryan Kalil as the only effective returning starter.
The Panthers' secondary lost three of four starters as well. They do have Cam Newton and a solid front seven defensively, but they aren’t going to be able to carry the load this season with all the losses.  It's also worth noting that Newton (Ribs) is a game-time decision for this contest against the Buccaneers, though we full expect him to play.

The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 games. Carolina is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 September games. This team is notorious for being slow starters, and I like that to be the case again in this one against an improved Bucs squad ready to make a statement.  Bet Tampa Bay Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -118

The San Diego Padres (66-75) are motivated to put an end to a four-game losing streak.  They are also hungry to avoid a sweep at the hands of the lowly Colorado Rockies (58-84) after dropping the first two games of this series.

I like the Padres' chances of bouncing back today behind ace Tyson Ross.  The right-hander is quietly having a brilliant season, going 13-12 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 29 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last three.  Ross has posted a 2.82 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado.

Franklin Morales is one of the worst starters in all of baseball.  The left-hander has gone 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.639 WHIP over 20 starts and 11 relief appearances in 2014.  Morales has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 10 starts.  He is also 0-1 with an 8.79 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Padres are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite.  San Diego is 6-0 in Ross' last six starts as a favorite.  The Rockies are 20-52 in their last 72 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Colorado is 3-8 in Morales' last 11 starts overall.  The Rockies are 32-67 in their last 99 Sunday games.  Roll with the Padres Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Upset Shocker on Oakland Raiders +5.5

The Oakland Raiders have been handcuffed by the salary cap over the last two seasons in back-to-back 4-12 campaigns under head coach Dennis Allen.  They finally had some money freed up this offseason, and they spent a lot of it on several veteran players to try and turn things around.

The Raiders will give the reigns to rookie quarterback Derek Carr, who got better with each game in the preseason and I expect him to succeed right away.  He has more weapons to work with this year with the additions of James Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew.

The defense got much better this offseason with the additions of DE Justin Tuck, DE Lamar Woodley, CB Carlos Rogers, CB Tarell Brown and rookie Khalil Mack.  Also, underrated safety and defensive leader Tyvon Branch returns from injury this year, and this will be one of the most improved stop units in the league with all of these moves.

The Jets should not be this heavily-favored against almost any team in the league.  They were extremely fortunate to go 8-8 last year.  They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They were outscored by 97 points on the season, which was the most for a non-losing team since the AFL/NFL merger.

New York made minor upgrades offensively this offseason, but this is still going to be one of the worst units in the league.  That's because Geno Smith is the starting QB, and he threw just 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions as a rookie last year.  The defense has all kinds of concerns in the secondary as well.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jets are 53-86 ATS in their last 139 games as a home favorite.  The Raiders actually outgained the Jets 383-352 despite losing 27-37 last year.  It's revenge time.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -3.5

No team has dominated one division over the past decade quite like the New England Patriots. They have won five straight AFC East titles and 10 of the last 11 overall. In what was considered a down year last season, they went 12-4 and made it to the AFC Championship Game. That just goes to show the kind of job Bill Belichick did and continues to do with this team year in and year out. He gets the most out of his players.

Despite what was considered a down year for the Patriots’ offense last year, they still wound up finishing seventh in the league in total offense. Tom Brady was working with rookie receivers, and he did not have Rob Gronkowski for the majority of the season. Now, those rookies are more experienced with a year in the system, while Gronkowski is expected to start in Week 1. I look for this Patriots offense to get back to being the dominant unit it was before 2013.

The defense made some strides last year by allowing a respectable 21.1 points per game. That was even with Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork missing significant time. Now, those two return healthy, and the Patriots have added in Will Smith, James Anderson and Darrelle Revis to help out the stop unit. This defense should be even better in 2014, and the Patriots are always at their best when they are solid on this side of the football.

The Dolphins are a team I’m down on this year. They have all kinds of issues along the offensive line after giving up the most sacks (58) in the entire league last season. Ryan Tannehill is a decent quarterback, but he cannot live up to his potential with the current offensive line, as well as the lack of weapons around him. Despite going 8-8 last year, the Dolphins were actually outgained by 46.5 yards per game. That’s the sign of a losing team rather than one that went .500.

New England is 45-27 ATS in its last 72 road games vs. division opponents. Belichick is 62-41 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New England. Belichick is 68-45 ATS in road games as the coach of the Patriots.

Finally, and most importantly, New England has won seven of its last eight meetings with Miami with six of those victories coming by a touchdown or more.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +7

The Bills own the longest active streak without a playoff berth at 14 seasons. They are coming off a 6-10 season that saw them finish in last place in the AFC East. Doug Marrone has a lot of pressure on him to turn things around this year. This team has been stockpiling talent, and they swung for the fences when they moved up five spots to take Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins. They are banking on EJ Manuel being their franchise quarterback, and he must stay healthy after using three different starting quarterbacks a year ago.

The Bills were much better last season than their 6-10 record would indicate. They actually outgained opponents 338.1 to 333.4 on the season, or by an average of 4.7 yards per game. That is the sign of a .500 team or better rather than one that went 6-10. It’s also impressive considering they had to use three different starting quarterbacks and never really got into the rhythm they needed to offensively because of it. Manuel won’t have to do too much because the Bills have one of the best running games in the league, ranking 2nd at 144.2 yards per game last year.

The Bears were atrocious defensively last year, ranking 30th in total defense (394.6 ypg) and 30th in scoring defense (29.9 ppg). Their biggest weakness was a run defense that ranked dead last in the league at 161.4 yards per game allowed. Look for the Bills, behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, to run wild on this Bears’ defense. This could not be a better match-up for the Bills even though the Bears did add a few reinforcements along the D-Line. I still expect them to be one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Sure, the explosive Chicago offense is a concern, but the Bills have one of the most underrated defenses in the game. Indeed, they ranked 10th in total defense last year, including just 4th against the pass (204.4 ypg). Chicago wants to throw it a lot, and Buffalo is built to stop the pass. It ranked second in the entire league in sacks (57) a year ago. You could make the argument that the Bills have the best defensive line in the entire league as they have a plethora of guys who can get after the quarterback, led by Mario Williams (13 sacks) and Kyle Williams (10.5 sacks).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Week 1 games. The Bears are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chicago has had no home-field advantage recently, going 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Also, Jay Cutler is 11-26 ATS as a home favorite in his career.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -107

The Milwaukee Brewers (74-67) finally put an end to their 9-game losing streak yesterday with a 6-2 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.  They are now just three games back of St. Louis for first place in the NL Central, and they are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the NL by one game.  Look for them to start a winning streak today with a home victory in Game 3.

Kyle Lohse continues to pitch at a high level in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 12-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Lohse has been dominant at home, going 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 10 starts.

Lance Lynn is having his best season for the Cardinals.  He is 14-8 with a 2.85 ERA, but he's fortunate to have that low of an ERA with a 1.301 WHIP on the year.  Also, he has been at his worst on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.413 WHIP over 12 starts.

Lohse is 60-30 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents for his career.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five starts as a road underdog.  The Brewers are 7-1 in Lohse's last eight starts on 5 days of rest.  Roll with the Brewers Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on South Carolina -15

This line is a complete overreaction from South Carolina getting destroyed by Texas A&M at home by a final of 28-52.  The Aggies were clearly better than people believed they would be, but obviously the Gamecocks weren't ready for what they say.  That was a tough game to prepare for because the Aggies have one of the best offensive minds in all of college football in Kevin Sumlin.  They will be much more prepared for East Carolina, and they'll be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory.

I still look for South Carolina to compete for an SEC East Title this year.  It has the talent to do so with 14 returning starters from a team that went 11-2 last year, which was the third straight season that Steve Spurrier has led this team to an 11-2 campaign.  This team has been on the brink of winning the SEC each of the last three years, and that doesn't change in 2014 after just one poor performance.

East Carolina is the team that is in rebuilding mode this year.  It has just nine returning starters in all.  It loses leading rusher Vintavious Cooper (1,193 yards, 13 TD) as well as three starters along the offensive line.  The Pirates only have 38 career starts returning along the O-line, so I look for South Carolina's athletes up front to dominate the line of scrimmage.  They only have four starters returning on defense and lose eight of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago.

The last time these teams played in 2012, South Carolina rolled to a 48-10 home victory as a 21-point favorite.  Dylan Thompson, who is now the starting quarterback for the Gamecocks, actually started in that game as a sophomore.  He threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Gamecocks to a dominant victory.  They racked up 528 yards of total offense in the win and led 35-0 late into the 3rd quarter.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

25* Michigan State/Oregon Top-10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +13.5

Michigan State had the top defense in the entire country last year.  It is the type of defense that will give Oregon fits, just like Stanford has the last two years.  Indeed, the Cardinal held the Ducks to 17 points in 2012 and 20 points in 2013.  The Spartans are fully capable of keeping this high-powered Ducks' offense in check, and that's precisely what I expect to happen Saturday.

I also like the match-up of Michigan State's offense against Oregon's defense.  The Spartans brought back seven starters on offense, including QB Connor Cook and RB Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,422 yards and 18 touchdowns last year.  Cook saved his best two performances for last, throwing for a combined 636 yards and five touchdowns in the wins over Ohio State and Stanford in the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl, respectively.

Oregon's defense is its biggest weakness.  It only brings back five starters on defense and loses three of its top five tacklers.  I look for the Spartans to control this game with their ground attack, and for Cook to continue to play his best on the biggest of stages.  He completed 12 of 13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-7 win over Jacksonville State in the opener.

I just think this Spartans team is not getting the credit they deserve, which has simply carried over from last season.  They were a 13-17 loss to Notre Dame away from going a perfect 14-0 and possibly playing in the BCS Championship.  They even had several calls not go their way in that loss to the Fighting Irish.  They have only lost two road games over the last two years, and those came by a combined six points to Notre Dame & Michigan.

I also believe that Oregon is on the decline.  It lost to Stanford last year and then proceeded to lose to Arizona by a final of 16-42.  It was fortunate to win the season finale against Oregon State, winning that game by a single point after a late two-point conversion.  Mark Helfrich really appeared to have lost his team in the second half of the season.  He is not even half the head coach that Chip Kelly was, and that is already starting to be felt.

Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Spartans.  This will be their coming out party Saturday as it wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -13

Kentucky is a team on the rise in the world of college football.  Sure, this team went 2-10 last year in Mark Stoops' first year on the job in 2013, but that's not telling of what this team is going to do in the coming years.  That's because Stoops has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes, and the talent he's bringing to Lexington is going to start paying off in a big way sooner rather than later.

Stoops has a whopping 15 returning starters to work with, and these guys will be much more accustomed to his systems in Year Two.  That already started to show in the opener as the Wildcats rolled to a 59-14 win over Tennessee-Martin as a 21.5-point favorite.  The Wildcats outgained the Skyhawks 656-398 for the game.

This was a 52-0 game before the Wildcats really called off the dogs and allowed the Skyhawks to pile up some stats in garbage time.  Indeed, 175 of UTM's 398 yards came in the 4th quarter, meaning that they only had 223 yards through the first three quarters.  QB Patrick Towles completed 20 of 29 passes for 377 yards and a touchdown in the win.  Baylon Heard rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on only two carries as well.

Ohio did make a bowl game with a 7-6 record last year, but it looked terrible in some of its losses.  It suffered blowout losses to Louisville (7-49), BUffalo (3-30), Bowling Green (0-49) and Kent State (13-44).  It only has 12 starters back this season, including just four on offense.  It loses all-time leading passer Tyler Tettleton, leading rusher Beau Blankenship, and four of its top five receivers.  I was not impressed with its 17-14 road win at Kent State in the opener thanks to a last-second field goal.

Ohio is 0-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.  The Bobcats are 14-32 ATS in their last 46 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. MAC opponents.  This will be Kentucky's 5th straight year hosting a MAC foe, and it has won each of the last four by an average of 30 points per game.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Fresno State/Utah No-Brainer on Utah -12

The Utah Utes are coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.  They did go 8-5 in their first year in the Pac-12 in 2011, but it has been downhill since.  I look for this team to contend for a bowl game this year as they should be improved with 12 starters and a lot of talent back under head coach Kyle Whittingham.

This team just finds a way to compete when playing in Salt Lake City.  Last year, the Utes did go just 4-3 at home, but their three losses came to Oregon State (48-51, OT), UCLA (27-34) and Arizona State (19-20) by a combined 11 points.  Those were three of the better teams in the Pac-12.  They also beat then-No. 5 Stanford (27-21), which went on to win the Pac-12.

Under new offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, the Utes had three touchdown drives that lasted under 42 seconds in their 56-14 win over Idaho State last week.  The new up-tempo scheme led to 589 total yards of offense for Utah, while the defense held Idaho State to 337 yards.  Travis Wilson completed 13 of 18 passes for 265 yards and a score.  The rushing attack produced 238 yards and 5.2 per carry.

Fresno State will struggle with Utah's up-tempo attack.  It did last week against USC, losing by a final of 13-52.  The Bulldogs' defense allowed an incredible 37 first downs and 701 total yards to the Trojan's new high-tempo offensive.  In fact, the Trojans ran a whopping 105 plays in the game.  The Utes should use the same blueprint to come away with a blowout victory of their own against the hapless Bulldogs. 

Fresno State clearly misses all-time leading passer Derek Carr as its new quarterbacks in Brian Burrell and Brandon Connette were picked off four times and threw for just 160 yards.  The offense managed just 317 total yards and 17 first downs against the Trojans.  Look for them to struggle against what will be a very solid Utah defense in this one.

Whittingham is 41-14 at home as the coach of Utah.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 50 points or more.  Utah is 51-31 ATS in its last 82 non-conference games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss.  Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Pac-12 foes.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.    The Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. MWC opponents.  Take Utah Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Upset Shocker on Toledo +4

There is a reason that this line has dropped from Toledo +6 to Toledo +4 and even +3.5 in some places as of this writing.  The sharp money is on Toledo, and it should be because this team is going to win outright Saturday.  I'll simply take the points for a little extra insurance.

I am very big on Toledo this season as I have it winning the MAC.  The reason is because it is one of the most experienced teams in the conference with 16 returning starters.  I have no doubt that this is the most talented team in the conference as well, and they are capable of beating an SEC program, even Missouri, a team that won the SEC East last year.

The Rockets return seven starters from an offense that put up 33.0 points and 447 yards per game last year.  Philip Ely is an Alabama transfer at quarterback who is underrated coming into the season.  Ely completed 24 of 34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns in a 54-20 home victory over New Hampshire in the opener.  Kareem Hunt is the top returning rusher, and he ran for 136 yards and two scores in the win.

The defense has a whopping nine starters back and will be one of the most improved in the country.  This unit only had three starters back last year and allowed 28.6 points per game.  That average should fall way down in 2014 with those nine starters back, including five of the top six tacklers.  The top two tacklers in Junior Sylvestre (118 tackles, 5 sacks) and Chase Murdock (109 tackles, 4 sacks) return.  The Rockets have the best O-Line and best D-line in the MAC.

I am way down on Missouri this year, and for good reason.  The Tigers lose almost everyone from last season's miraculous run to the SEC Title.  They are one of the least-experienced teams in the SEC with only eight starters returning.  They lose leading rusher Henry Josey, their top three receivers, and five of their top seven tacklers defensively.  This team could go from first to worst in the SEC East this season.

I was not at all impressed with Missouri's 38-18 home win over South Dakota State as a 25-point favorite in its opener.  It only outgained the Jackrabbits 393-365 for the game, or by a total of just 28 yards.  That will be a sign of things to come for this team because they were expected to crush SDSU, but the final score was not indicative of how close this game really was.  Maty Mauk only threw for 178 yards in the win, while the defense allowed 23 of 32 passing for 246 yards to the Jackrabbits.

Toledo play Missouri just about as tough as anyone last year.  It did lose 23-38 on the road as a 15-point underdog, but that final score was not indicative of how close the game actually was.  Indeed, the Rockets actually outgained the Tigers 387-384 for the game.  As you know, the Tigers went on to play in the SEC Championship.  With Toledo much-improved this season, and Missouri way down, I look for Toledo to pull off the upset at home in the rematch.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Toledo is 54-34 ATS in its last 88 home games.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* Washington State/Nevada ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -3.5

Washington State made its first bowl game since 2003 last year in just the second season under head coach Mike Leach.  He guided the Cougars to a 6-7 finish after a fluke loss to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl where they simply gave the game away in the closing minutes.  Still, it was a step in the right direction for this team, which brings back 14 starters this year.

Obviously, the Cougars did not get off to the start they wanted this season with a 38-41 home loss to Rutgers.  They again fell apart late in that game, but I think Rutgers is a better team than it is getting credit for heading into this season.  The Scarlet Knights brought back 16 starters this year, making them one of the more experienced teams in the country.

Still, when you look at the box score, the Cougars really should have won that game.  They racked up 538 yards of total offense, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 42 yards for the game.  Returning starter Connor Halliday had a monster game offensively, completing 40 of 56 passes for 532 yards and five touchdowns with one interceptions in the loss.  Four different receivers had 83-plus yards receiving, so he will certainly have the luxury of spreading the ball around this season.

Nevada is getting too much respect here.  It went just 4-8 last year and won't be much better in 2014.  Its performance against Southern Utah was worse than Washington State's against Rutgers.  The Wolf Pack only won by a final of 28-19 at home against this FCS opponent despite being a 24.5-point favorite. 

The Wolf Pack had one of the worst defenses in the country last year, giving up 34.4 points and 505 total yards per game.  Sure, they have 10 starters back on defense, but that's not necessarily a good thing after last season's disaster and lack of talent.  I look for Halliday and company to score at will on this putrid defense.

Washington State is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Washington State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wolf Pack are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Nevada is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON ST) - first 2 weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a losing record last season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington State Friday.

15* NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Brewers -117

Yes, the Milwaukee Brewers have lost nine in a row.  Yes, the St. Louis Cardinals have won six in a row.  However, the Brewers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been all season.  They are still tied for the final wild card spot in the National League with plenty to play for and should have no problem bouncing back as a result.

Mike Fiers has been a godsend since he's returned to the rotation for the Brewers.  Indeed, the right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.657 WHIP with 41 strikeouts over 35 innings.  Fiers is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis, allowing just one earned run over 12 innings.

John Lackey has been a solid addition to the Cardinals' rotation prior to the trade deadline as well.  He is 13-8 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  However, Lackey has been at his worst on the road, going 7-5 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 13 starts this season.

St. Louis is 18-36 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 4-1 in Fiers' last five starts.  Milwaukee is 8-3 in Fiers' last 11 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Brewers Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -130

The Detroit Tigers have really turned it on over the last couple weeks now that we are getting down to crunch time.  They have won nine of their last 13 games overall and currently own the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also just one game behind Kansas City for first place in the AL Central.

Rick Porcello has been one of the most underrated starters in the game this season.  He has gone 15-9 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.144 WHIP over 26 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in his last three starts.  Porcello is also 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in one career start against San Francisco.

Jake Peavy is way past his prime.  The right-hander has gone 4-13 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 2-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 13 starts.  Peavy is also 4-7 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in 14 career starts against Detroit.  In his last two starts against the Tigers, he has allowed 12 earned runs over nine innings, both losses.

The Giants are 24-51 in their last 75 interleague road games, including 2-15 in interleague road games over the last two seasons.  San Francisco is 7-22 in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Detroit is 64-19 in its last 83 interleague home games.  The Tigers are 27-13 in Porcello's last 40 starts.  Roll with Detroit Friday.

20* Packers/Seahawks 2014 NFL Season Opener on Green Bay +6

The Seattle Seahawks are way overvalued in the opener as a 6-point favorite against the Green Bay Packers.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they are the defending Super Bowl champions.  I look for the Packers to give them a run for their money in the opener, possibly pulling off the upset.

Green Bay has waited two years for a chance at revenge on Seattle.  It lost by a final of 12-14 in Seattle back in 2012 on the infamous "Fail Mary" play. The Packers intercepted the Seahawks on the final play of the game, but the referees ruled that it was a Seattle reception for a touchdown.  They failed to swallow their pride and overturn the call even though it was clear that it was an interception by the Packers.

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Packers as this big of an underdog with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.  He is primed for a big season this year as he is loaded with healthy weapons on the outside with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb leading the way.  The offensive line will be better with the healthy return of Brian Bulaga at right tackle as well.  Eddy Lacy gives them a real threat of a rushing attack after running for over 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie.

What held Green Bay back last year, aside from Rodgers missing seven games to injury, was a defense that ranked 25th in the league at 372.2 yards per game allowed.  This unit should be much-improved in 2014.  They added rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round, and they signed elite pass rusher Julius Peppers in free agency.  The secondary was really banged up last year, but everyone returns healthy this year.  In fact, the Packers have had as bad of luck in the injury department as any team in the league over the last couple seasons.

Seattle is going to suffer a bit of a Super Bowl hangover this year.  Just ask the Baltimore Ravens last season.  They were destroyed by the Denver Broncos in the opener last year.  I also think the Seahawks have lost some key players that will have them taking a step back.  They part ways with their most reliable receiver in Golden Tate, while also losing two key defensive linemen in Red Bryant and Chris Clemons.  Their offensive line is a weak link as well, and both Peppers and Clay Matthews should be in the Seattle backfield quite frequently in this one.

The Seahawks have been dominant at home, but they did get beaten by the Cardinals at home last year, and they needed overtime to beat the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They are beatable here, just as the Packers proved two years ago when they should have won if not for a blown call.  The Packers have won six of the last eight meetings in this series.  Green Bay is 79-55 ATS in all games under Mike McCarthy, including 40-27 ATS in road games.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -118

The Los Angeles Angels (83-55) have lost back-to-back games to the lowly Houston Astros heading into this one.  That's why they won't have a problem being motivated for Game 1 of this series with the Minnesota Twins (61-78) tonight.  Look for them to get back on track with a blowout victory here.

Hector Santiago has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year.  He has posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.224 WHIP over 19 starts and five relief appearances.  Santiago has been on his game of late, going 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota as well.

Kyle Gibson is having just a mediocre season in Minnesota.  The right-hander has gone 11-10 with a 4.23 ERA over 26 starts.  However, he is 0-1 with a 6.60 WHIP in his last three starts.  Also, Gibson is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in two career starts against the Angels.  In his lone start against Los Angeles this season, he gave up seven earned runs over two innings in a 6-8 loss.

The Angels are 56-21 in their last 77 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 36-16 in its last 52 games following a loss.  The Angels are 45-22 in their last 67 games overall.  The Twins are 11-25 in their last 36 vs. AL West opponents.  Minnesota is 0-4 in Gibson's last four home starts.  The Twins are 10-36 (-22.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* Arizona/UTSA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona -7

The Arizona Wildcats are on the rise under head coach Rich Rodriquez.  He has guided them to back-to-back 8-5 seasons that both ended in bowl victories the past two years.  Now, he should have his best team yet in 2014 as this team is a sleeper to compete for a Pac-12 South Title.  They have 13 returning starters and only 19 lettermen lost.

I was very impressed with Arizona's 58-13 victory over UNLV in the opener.  The Rebels are no juggernaut, but they did make a bowl game last year and are better than they get credit for.  The Wildcats simply dominated them, gaining 787 yards of total offense while giving up just 371, outgaining them by a whopping 416 total yards.

The Wildcats did have to replace their starting quarterback this year, but that's clearly a bonus as BJ Denker wasn't very good as a passer.  Freshman QB Anu Solomon is a name that you need to keep an eye on.  He threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards against UNLV.  Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson combined for 228 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries.  The Wildcats rushed for 353 yards as a team.  They have one of the best sets of WR's in the country for Solomon as well.

UTSA is getting too much respect here due to its 27-7 win at Houston last week.  I was on UTSA in that game, but I'm willing to admit that the Cougars simply gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  UTSA lost its best player in QB Eric Soza from last year.  He completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 369 yards and a team-high seven scores in 2013. 

The new quarterback is Tucker Carter, who I was not impressed with against Houston.  Carter only threw for 121 yards on 24 attempts in the win.  UTSA's offense is limited with Carter at the helm, and it will not create enough explosive plays in the passing game to keep up with this high-powered Arizona offense.

Last year, Arizona beat UTSA by a final of 38-13 at home as a 24-point favorite.  Now, Arizona is only a 7-point road favorite this time around, which is a 17-point swing based on home/away.  That alone tells you that there is some value on the Wildcats in the rematch, especially considering they are a better team than they were last year, while UTSA is probably about on par with how they were last year now that they lost Soza.

Larry Coker is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games after a win by 17 or more points as the coach of UTSA.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Expect another blowout in their favor in this one.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

25* NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Brewers -113

The Milwaukee Brewers (73-65) have lost seven straight to fall two games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central lead.  They now hold on to the final wild card spot in the NL, only 1.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Chicago Cubs (63-76) to not only put an end to the skid, but to avoid the sweep in this series.

Matt Garza is the ultimate competitor.  He relishes getting to start when games mean the most.  I look for him to shut down the Cubs tonight.  Garza is 7-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.524 WHIP in his last three.  In two starts against Chicago this season, Garza has gone 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.714 WHIP while allowing five runs and 10 base runners over 14 innings while striking out 14.  His is also 12-8 with a 2.74 ERA in 29 career starts at Wrigley Field dating back to his time with the Cubs.

Chicago's Kyle Hendricks is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers with what he has been able to do in limited action this season.  He has posted a 2.06 ERA over nine starts, but I'm not buying into this guy.  He doesn't have overpowering stuff, as evidenced by his 34 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings.  The Cubs are without their best player in Anthony Rizzo (back), and they could be without Starlin Castro (ankle) as well tonight.

The Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Milwaukee is 17-8 in its last 25 when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Cubs are 28-59 in their last 87 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Chicago is 38-80 in its last 118 when its opponent allows 5 or more runs in their previous game.  The Cubs are 18-40 in their last 58 during game 3 of a series.  Bet the Brewers Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -147

The San Francisco Giants (75-63) are just two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West.  They are also three games ahead of Atlanta from not even making the wild card in the National League.  They will be highly motivated the rest of the way.

The Colorado Rockies (55-83) have the worst record in the National League.  They have lost six of their last eight and are simply trying out their prospects and playing for pride the rest of the way.  Their hitting has been atrocious of late as they have scored two or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games overall.

Yusmeiro Petit has been very effective in limited action this season for San Francisco.  The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 0.997 WHIP with 96 strikeouts over 86 1/3 innings.  In his last start against Colorado on August 28, Petit allowed one earned run and four base runners over six innings while striking out nine in a 4-1 San Francisco victory.

Jordan Lyles has not been real effective this season for Colorado.  He has posted a 4.08 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 17 starts this year, a 4.53 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in eight home starts, and a 5.94 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in his last three starts.  In Lyles' last two starts against the Giants, he has allowed six earned runs in 11 innings for a 4.91 ERA.  Meanwhile, Petit has allowed six earned runs over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies for a 3.06 ERA.

San Francisco is 20-3 (+14.5 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Giants are 6-1 in Petit's last seven road starts.  The Rockies are 21-47 in their last 68 overall.  Colorado is 13-38 in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Rockies are 0-5 in Lyles' last five starts vs. NL West foes.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -114

The Washington Nationals (77-58) have the best record in the National League.  They are only one game ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers (77-60) for that designation, so this is obviously a big series for both teams.  I believe the Nationals have the edge on the mound in Game 1 Monday.

Gio Gonzalez is having another solid season for the Nationals, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.302 WHIP over 22 starts.  The left-hander has gone 3-6 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 11 road starts, and 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in his last three starts.  Gonzalez sports a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.

Roberto Hernandez has had a nice bounce-back season this year, and as a result he was traded to the Dodgers.  He has gone 8-9 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.326 WHIP over 24 starts and three relief appearances.  I just believe he is being overvalued right now because, while he is having a decent season, it is more of an aberration than anything based off of how he has pitched the past couple seasons.  He had posted a 4.89 ERA or worse in each of the previous three seasons, and five of the last six.

Hernandez is 1-8 (-7.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.  Gonzalez is 73-33 (+28.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher in his career.  The Nationals are 9-1 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts vs. NL West opponents.  Washington is 35-16 in its last 51 vs. NL West foes overall.  Take the Nationals Monday.

15* Miami/Louisville ACC Opener on OVER 54

The Louisville Cardinals and Miami Hurricanes play in a rematch from the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Cardinals won 36-9 in an absolutely dominant performance last season.  They outgained the Hurricanes 554-174 for the game.

Louisville will be a completely different team this year under new head coach Bobby Petrino.  It will be an up-tempo offense that will produce more points than last year, but that will cause the defense to be on the field more, and there's no question that the stop unit won't be as good as it was in 2013.

The Cardinals only return four starters on defense and lose six of their top eight tacklers.  That includes both Preston Brown (94 tackles, 12.5 for loss) and Calvin Pryor (75 tackles, 3 INT), who each moved on to the NFL.  There's no question they will take a big step back defensively this year.

The offense is in good hands with seven starters back.  The Cardinals have one of the best WR corps in the entire country with four of their top five guys back from last year.  Will Gardner is the new starting QB, and he has been getting rave reviews after throwing for over 500 yards in the spring game.

Miami will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, but freshman Brad Kaaya has won over his teammates.  Duke Johnson, who rushed for 920 yards and six touchdowns last year in only seven games, was on pace for nearly 2,000 rushing yards.

Johnson said Kaaya has done a good job taking command of the huddle. “If you didn’t know Brad, you wouldn’t know that he’s a freshman,” Johnson said. “He comes in, he demands … he lets everybody know what’s the play, what he needs done."

Miami's defense was not very good last year, giving up a whopping 426 yards per game.  This stop unit won't be much better in 2014, either.  I think both defenses are at a disadvantage because they will be facing offenses that they have never seen before.  After all, this is their first year together as ACC foes.

The Hurricanes' defensive coordinator even had praise for Kaaya.  “His poise and his mechanics [are what stand out],” Mark D’Onofrio said. “He's very polished — just being able to handle it all and how he looks and he moves in the pocket. It doesn’t look like a young guy doing that. He’s very mechanically sound, like he’s been doing this for a long time.”

The OVER is 7-1 in Hurricanes last 8 games in September.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last four conference games.  Expect plenty of offensive fireworks tonight to push the final combined score of this game over the 54-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* SMU/Baylor Sunday No-Brainer on Baylor -33

The Baylor Bears are coming off a Big 12 Title after going 11-2 in 2013. They needed a win over Texas in the finale, and got it by a final of 30-10 to secure the conference championship. They went on to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, but lost 42-52 despite being a 16-point favorite. It was a very successful season for head coach Art Briles and company. He has done a tremendous job in recruiting as the Bears now figure to be a Big 12 contender for years to come with him leading the way.

June Jones always seems to get the most out of his teams. He has only had four losing seasons in his 15 years as a head coach, but one of those came last year as the Mustangs went just 5-7 overall. Their only wins came against Memphis, Montana State, Tempe, UConn and South Florida as all four of those FBS teams finished with losing records. They did only lose 13-17 to UCF in the finale to show what they were capable of against one of the best teams in the country.

The Bears have been one of the best home teams in the country over the last three years. They have gone 19-1 at home over that time. Last year, they outscored opponents by an average of 61-13 at home while going a perfect 7-0. They are moving up in the world as well because they just got a new stadium that will be introduced Sunday night for the SMU game, so the place should be rocking.

This team led the country in both scoring offense (52.4 ppg) and total offense (619 ypg) last year. What I love about them is that they don’t take their foot off the gas, which allows them to cover big spreads like this one with relative ease. Bryce Petty is a clear Heisman Trophy contender after throwing for 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns against three interceptions last year. He has the best wide receiver corps in the country as well. The defense is a bit of a concern with only four starters back, but the D-line is loaded with talent and this unit will be better than expected, just as they were last year when they gave up 23.5 points per game.

This is a clear rebuilding year for SMU and head coach Jones. They only have 12 starters back and lose a lot. They part ways with QB Garrett Gilbert, who threw for 3,528 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions last year. They also lose their top two receivers in Jeremy Johnson (112 receptions, 1,112 yards, 6 TD) and Keenan Holman (67, 1,037, 9 TD). The defense only has six starters back after giving up 33.3 points and 413 yards per game. SMU was blown out by both Texas A&M (13-42) and TCU (17-48) last year. I look for Baylor to easily win this game by 35-plus points.

Plays on home favorites (BAYLOR) – incredible offense from last season – averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bears are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. The Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Baylor Sunday.

20* Utah State/Tennessee Sunday Night ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5

Tennessee is coming off three straight losing seasons and desperately wants to get back to a bowl game in 2014. It went just 5-7 last year with three of its wins coming against Austin Peay, Western Kentucky and South Alabama. It only went 2-6 in SEC play, though it did pull off one of the bigger upsets of the season within the conference by beating South Carolina at home. This is a big year for head coach Butch Jones in his second season with the Volunteers.

Utah State has been one of the more underrated teams in college football over the last two seasons. After going 11-2 in 2012 under Gary Andersen, Matt Wells inherited a talented team that finished 9-5 and played in the Mountain West Title Game. There, the Aggies gave Fresno State all they could handle, but ultimately fell 17-24. They went on to beat Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl for a nice 6-1 finish over their final seven games.

Jones has been stockpiling talent at Tennessee in his two years on the job. Fans have to be excited about the fact that he has been able to recruit with some of the best programs in the country. Indeed, the Volunteers came away with the fifth-best recruiting class in the land for 2014. This team is very close to making some noise within the SEC, and that could happen as soon as this season.

It is concerning that they only return 10 starters this year, but there are several very highly touted players ready to step in and start. I believe this team is going a bit under the radar because they have stunk up the joint the last three years, but that win over South Carolina last season shows what they are capable of. Jones will have his team ready to go in Week 1.

The Vols are showing excellent value as a small home favorite in this one. After all, Tennessee has won 19 straight home openers.  The defense returns five of its top six tacklers and will be one of the most improved units in the country.  The offense should be much better as well because QB Justin Worley is back and he has every one of his top receivers from last year back.

Utah State’s run as a sleeper is over. It was a team to be reckoned with over the last two seasons, able to play with almost anyone in the country. Now, the Aggies are in clear rebuilding mode as they return just eight starters this season. They do have Chuckie Keeton back at quarterback, but one player does not make a team. I look for the offense to take a big step back with only three starters returning.  They break in four new starters along the offensive line, lose leading rusher Joe DeMartino (1,221 yards, 13 TD), and each of their top two receivers in Travis Reynolds (51, 832, 4 TD) and Travis Van Leeuwen (52, 661, 3 TD).

The Aggies' defense figures to take a step back as well with the losses of seven of their top 11 tacklers. They only return five starters on this side of the ball and lose many of their top players, including leading tackler Jake Doughty (148 tackles, 12 for loss), Maurice Alexander (80 tackles, 9 for loss) and Nevin Lawson (57 tackles, 17 passes defended, 4 INT).  Wells benefited from the players that Andersen was able to recruit, but he won’t reap the rewards in his second season nearly as much as he did in his first.  The fact of the matter is that this is a very inexperienced team that won't be able to compete with a team from the SEC in the opener.  Bet Tennessee Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -105

The New York Yankees (70-64) have won seven of their last 10 games overall.  They are really making a charge to close out the season.  I like them to take Game 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays (68-67) to inch closer to the final wild card spot in the American League.

Brandon McCarthy is 8-13 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.310 WHIP on the season over 27 starts.  He has been much better since getting traded to the Yankees, especially of late, posting a 2.91 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three starts.  McCarthy is 3-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.

J.A. Happ has had a decent season for the Blue Jays by his standards, which isn't saying much because he was awful before this season.  Happ is still just 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 20 starts and four relief appearances this year.  He is 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Happ is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in eight career starts against New York.

Happ is 4-16 (-14.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season for his career.  The Yankees are 42-17 in their last 59 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  New York is 4-0 in McCarthy's last four starts as a favorite.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  Toronto is 0-5 in Happ's last five starts.  Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

15* LSU/Wisconsin ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU -5

I have a lot of respect for Gary Andersen and the job he has done at both Utah State and in his first year at Wisconsin last season.  The Badgers went 9-4 last season with all three of their regular season losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Then, they fell to SEC foe South Carolina 24-34 in the Capital One Bowl, and I believe that will be a sign of things to come when they face LSU to kick off their 2014 season.

Wisconsin isn't even as strong of a team as it was a year ago.  It only returns 10 starters in all this year, including three on defense.  Their stop unit takes a tremendous hit with the loss of leading tackler Chris Borland, whose 112 tackles were 49 more than second place.  He was the heart and soul of this defense and will be missed badly.  In fact, the Badgers break in seven new starters among the front seven, so look for LSU to run it down their throats all game long.

The Tigers have averaged the fourth-best recruiting class in the country over the last three years.  They are stocked with talent at the running back position, so the loss of Jeremy Hill won't be felt.  They averaged 202 yards per game and 5.0 per carry on the ground last season, and those numbers should be even better in 2014.  That's especially the case with four starters and 75 career starts returning on the offensive line, which is arguably Les Miles' best unit in his 10 years here.

I would be lying if I said that Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin's offensive line don't scare me, but if anything, that is a wash against LSU's defense.  The Tigers return seven starters on D after having just four back on that side of the ball last year.  They have allowed 3.9 or fewer yards per carry in each of the last seven seasons, which is all of the data I currently have in front of me.  Most likely, that streak extends back further.

How I see this game playing out is LSU taking a nice-sized lead in the first half and forcing Wisconsin to abandon its game plan of running the football.  The Badgers not proven they can throw the football consistently, and now they'll be without arguably their most important player on offense last year in Jared Abbrederis.  He caught 78 balls for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns last season and constantly bailed out the offense when they needed a big play in the passing game.  In fact, the Badgers lose each of their top three receivers from last year.  Their only strength is their running game, and that's not enough to beat this stacked LSU team, or to even keep the game relatively close.

This will be the fourth time in the last five years that LSU opens with a tough neutral site game.  They are 3-0 in their last three with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game.  They beat then-No. 18 UNC (30-24) in 2010, then-No. 3 Oregon (40-27) in 2011, and then-No. 20 TCU (37-27) in 2013.  Chalk up four straight victories by 6 points or more to open the season on neutral sites for the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

**Due to an error in one of the odds feeds this game switched in our system to another, so we are re-releasing it just so it grades correctly***

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Louisiana Tech +38

Oklahoma is way overvalued heading into the 2014 season because of its win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.  I believe the Sooners caught the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot because they had played in the BCS Championship the two previous years, and they clearly were not up for that game.  While I do believe that Oklahoma should be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year, it isn't as clear-cut as most folks in the media are making it out to be.

Trevor Knight played great down the stretch for the Sooners, but he's still just a sophomore and won't be as good as everyone is anticipating.  That's especially the case when you consider that the offense only have five starters back on this side of the ball and will be breaking in several new skill players.  I just don't believe that the Sooners have the offensive firepower to cover this 38-point spread against what will be an improved Louisiana Tech team.

Indeed, the Bulldogs will be much better in Skip Holtz's second season.  They should be one of the most improved teams in the country statistically.  They had gone 17-8 over two seasons before Holtz took over.  He was left with nothing as the Bulldogs had just seven starters back last year.  Now they have 13 starters back in 2014 and many of Holtz's own recruits in place to get significant playing time.  There will be value in backing this team in the early going because the public perception on them is down after last season's disaster.

I like the addition of former Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback.  He'll have the luxury of handing the ball off to both Kenneth Dixon (917 yards, 6.1/carry) and Tevin King (539 yards, 5.8/carry), who were bright spots on an otherwise down season last year.  The defense held its own last season in allowing a respectable 26.3 points per game despite having just four starters back.  This unit should be even better in 2014 with seven starters and five of the top six tacklers back.

Oklahoma will be without its leader defensively.  Middle linebacker Frank Shannon has been suspended for the opener, and possibly the entire season. He not only led the team in tackles (92) last year, but he's also the vocal leader of this stop unit, and the man calling the shots in the middle.  I simply believe this is a case of the betting public giving Oklahoma too much respect coming into the season, and Louisiana Tech not enough.

Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA) – in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 63-25 (71.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn SEC Opener on Arkansas +19

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014 from a statistical standpoint.  Bret Bielema had his hands full in 2013 with just 10 starters back.  They went just 3-9, and after opening 3-0, they would lose each of their final nine games while going winless in SEC play.  While that sounds like an awful finish, I was actually impressed by a couple of their losses late in the season.

Indeed, the Razorbacks only lost 24-34 at Ole Miss as a 17-point underdog, 17-24 (OT) at home to Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog, and then 27-31 at LSU as a 26-point underdog.  They actually had LSU down 27-24 with only one minute remaining, but the Tigers drove the length of the field and stole victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now, with 14 starters returning in the second year of Bielema's system, the Razorbacks are going to sneak up on some teams this year.  They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back with Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD).  Three starters and 51 career starts return along the offensive line.  QB Brandon Allen will be better than he was a year ago.  The defense will be improved as well with seven starters and five of the top seven tacklers back.

I am not high on Auburn at all this year.  They are way overvalued after miraculously making the national title game last season.  However, they won six games by 8 points or less, so they were very fortunate to get that far.  They wound up as SEC Champs, but there were a few teams that I would rank as better teams than them last year, including Alabama and LSU. 

The Tigers do have 14 starters back, but will be missing a key one in the opener.  QB Nick Marshall will be suspended for at least part of the game as he will not start.  He was cited in July for possession of marijuana.  It's not clear how much he will play, but he at least will not start.  Also, starting CB Jonathan Mincy will not start the game either because of the same offense.

These teams played last year with Auburn winning by a final of 35-17 on the road.  However, a closer look shows that game was much closer than the score would indicate.  The Razorbacks were only outgained 346-366 for the game, or by 20 total yards.  They actually gained seven more first downs than Auburn in the loss.  The difference in that game was that Arkansas finished -3 in turnover differential, which is unlikely to happen again.

This is an Auburn defense that gave up 421 total yards and 162 rushing yards per game last year.  Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers to keep this one close.  After all, they rushed for 222 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry against the Tigers last season.  This game will be much closer than expected, and I wouldn't be surprise to see it as a one-score game in the 4th quarter.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -26

Just as they do every year, the Alabama Crimson Tide will make their opponent look like a high school team in the opener.  That opponent in 2014 is West Virginia, which was one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year, finishing in a tie for seventh place.  This game is going to get ugly in a hurry as the Tide roll to victory.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game.  The last four have been absolute blowouts.  They beat San Jose State (48-3) as a 37-point favorite in 2010, Kent State (48-7) as a 39-point favorite in 2011, Michigan (41-14) as a 13-point favorite in 2012 and Virginia Tech (35-10) as a 21-point favorite in 2013.  You can add another blowout and cover to that résumé in 2014.

Alabama will be highly motivated after losing each of its final two games last year after a perfect 11-0 start.  This is one of Nick Saban's most experienced teams yet with 12 starters back.  The offense is going to be dynamic even with a new starting quarterback.  You have to remember that Jake Coker nearly beat out Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, last year at Florida State.

While capable, Coker won't have to do too much in the early going.  He can simply hand the ball off the to best running back corps in the country in TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 6.0/carry, 14 TD), Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 7.5/carry, 8 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 yards, 10.9/carry, 3 TD) all game and watch them do their thing.  They'll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country that paved the way for 206 yards and 5.8/carry on the ground last year.

The defense only brings back five starters, but that's not a big deal at all.  The last time the Crimson Tide only had five starters back, they allowed 10.9 points per game in 2012.  This stop unit is still loaded with future NFL stars.  After all, Nick Saban's defenses have allowed 14.3 points per game or fewer for six seasons running.

Admittedly, West Virginia is not going to be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much off a 4-8 disaster that saw two of its wins come against William & Mary (24-17) and Georgia State (41-7) at home.  The Mountaineers do have 13 starters back this year after only having eight back last season, but there really isn't a lot of talent on this team.  They are still in a mess at the QB position with Clint Trickett, who only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last year with seven touchdowns and seven picks.  He's not going to be much better this year, especially in the opener against the best defense he has ever seen by far.

The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five August games.  West Virginia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on fieldturf.  The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York Yankees -119

The New York Yankees (70-63) have won seven of their last nine games to get within three games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  The Toronto Blue Jays (67-67) have been reeling for months and cannot seem to get the wheels back on.  I look for the Yankees to continue their surge tonight due to their edge on the mound.

Michael Pineda has obviously made a full recovery from injury with the way he has been pitching.  Pineda has gone 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last three.  In his lone start against Toronto this season, Pineda gave up just one earned run and five base runners in six innings of work on April 5th.

Drew Hutchison has struggled all season for Toronto.  He has gone 8-11 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 26 starts this season, 3-5 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hutchison is also 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.709 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 95-56 (+14.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Toronto is 4-14 in its last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 2-10 in Hutchison's last 12 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Troy +3

The Troy Trojans have had just five losing seasons in the last 22 years.  Larry Blakeney enters his 24th season here as head coach, and time and time again he fields teams that are capable of competing with almost any team in the country with the talent on hand.  That's why it has been a bit mind-boggling that this team has failed to finish with a winning record in each of the last three years.

That will all change in 2014 as Blakeney welcomes back 12 returning starters after having just seven back during a 6-6 campaign last season.  This team has had some tough luck in recent years as well.  The Trojans lost a ridiculous six games by a touchdown or less during a 5-7 campaign in 2012. They then lost three games by a touchdown or less last season with two of the three exceptions coming on the road against SEC powers Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

While 12 starters doesn't seem like a big number, it is actually pretty big for Troy as it is their second-most returning starters over the last five years.  The Trojans also have 56 lettermen returning, so this is going to be a deep, experienced team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them win the Sun Belt, which is something that has happened quite frequently under Blakeney's watch.

UAB, on the other hand, is known for losing.  It has not won more than five games in any of the past nine seasons, and it has even failed to win five games in seven of those nine years.  2013 was no exception as the Blazers went just 2-10 despite having 15 starters back.  Their only wins came against FCS opponent Northwestern State (52-28) as well as winless FIU (27-24).  They even got blown out at home in the season finale by previously winless Southern Miss (27-62).

Sure, the Blazers have 15 starters back this year, but that doesn't mean much for them because there isn't much talent to speak of here for first-year head coach Bill Clark.  In fact, the Blazers have had 14 or more starters back in four of the past five seasons.  How have they done over that time?  How about a combined 17-43 record.  So, just because a team has a lot of starters back doesn't always mean it's a good thing, especially for small-school programs like UAB who cannot recruit talent.

Troy has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including each of the last three.  Corey Robinson broke an 18-year-old NCAA record by completing 93.8% (30-32) of his passes in a 34-31 overtime win over the Blazers last season in the opener.  Remember, this was an inexperienced Troy team last year with just seven starters back.  With 12 back this year and 56 lettermen, they will be much more prepared for the opener, and should roll this time.

UAB is just 22-42 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They had blowout losses to Vanderbilt (24-52), UTSA (31-52), Marshall (14-56), East Carolina (14-63) and Southern Miss (27-62) during this 2-7 ATS skid dating back to last season.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +21

The UCLA Bruins are coming into the 2014 season way overvalued.  They are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 this season and make the four-team playoff.  As a result, the betting public is way too high on them in the early going, starting with this opener against Virginia on the road.

Conversely, Virginia is coming off a 2-10 season in which it went winless in ACC play.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavaliers, and as a result they head into the 2014 season underdog.  They should not be catching three touchdowns against the Bruins Saturday.

Mike London hasn't gotten the most out of the talent he has had on hand.  A big reason for that is the fact that this team has been decimated by injuries in recent years.  I look for them to have better luck in that department in 2014, which will lead to them being one of the more improved teams in the country statistically.

Speaking of talent, Virginia has actually averaged the 31st-best recruiting class in the country over the last three seasons.  That talent could start paying off as soon as this year, especially when you consider that this should be London's best team yet.  Indeed, he will be working with a whopping 17 returning starters and 53 lettermen from last year's squad.

The offense is going to be vastly improved.  All of the top rushers are back, including Kevin Parks (1,031 yards, 11 TD).  QB Greyson Lambert got his feet wet with a little playing time as a freshman last year, and he's got the talent to really emerge as a sophomore.  He'll be working behind an offensive line that has three starters and 49 career starts back. 

I'm really excited about the defense as eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers return.  This will easily be one of the most improved stop units in the country.  Headlining the defense is All-ACC safety Anthony Harris, who led the nation with eight interceptions last year.  I believe this defense will keep the UCLA offense in check and allow the Cavaliers to cover three touchdowns.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes would be a much bigger favorite if Braxton Miller was playing.  While Miller is an excellent player, Urban Meyer has done a lot more with worse starters than JT Barrett, who will get the start Saturday against Navy.  I look for it to be business as usual for the Buckeyes, who will roll to victory against the overmatched Midshipmen in this one.

Meyer would have a case for being the best coach in college football with two national championships at Florida and a perfect 12-0 season at Utah.  That doesn't even include how he turned Bowling Green around in his time there.  Nor does it include that fact that Ohio State went a perfect 24-0 in his first 24 games as head coach over the last two seasons before dropping the last two to Michigan State and Clemson.

The quarterback is J.T. Barrett, and while he's not as athletic or dynamic as Braxton Miller, who is? Alex Smith wasn't. Josh Harris wasn't. Neither was Chris Leak nor Kenny Guiton. And Meyer did just fine with those guys, using Harris to win 17 games in two seasons at Bowling Green, Smith to go 12-0 at Utah, Leak to win a national title at Florida and Guiton to replace the injured Miller a year ago and lead the Buckeyes to three straight victories.

Meyer inherited that quartet (Smith, Harris, Leak, Guiton) from the previous staff at each school, just as he inherited Braxton Miller from Jim Tressel. In most cases, most obviously with Smith, Harris and Guiton, but also Miller, Meyer milked more than expected from each quarterback, and he did it right away.

When he hand-picks a guy at QB, they usually thrive even more.  Barrett is a handpicked recruit and one of the top-three dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  Meyer handpicked Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green, and he set all kinds of school records playing for Meyer's former assistant, Gregg Brandon, in Meyer's offense.  The same thing happened at Utah with Brian Johnson, who thrived under Meyer assistant Kyle Whittingham, once again Meyer's system.  We all know how Tim Tebow and Cam Newton worked out, as well.

Barrett will be fine because this team is loaded with talented skill players around him.  But the defense is the biggest reason why I like Ohio State to roll Navy.  After returning just four starters on defense last year, the Buckeyes welcome back seven starters on D in 2014.  They will play more press coverage to mask the secondary, which was a weakness last year for this team.  It can only get better in 2014.

The good news is that the secondary won't be needed against Navy's triple-option offense.  It will be the front seven that needs to stop it, and perhaps no better team is equipped to do so than Ohio State.  It has the best defensive line in the entire country with all four starters returning from a unit that gave up only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This unit is loaded with nothing but future-early-round NFL draft picks in Noah Spence, Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.

Another key to this game is that Ohio State has had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option.  Without question, the triple-option is the toughest offense to prepare for.  That's why Navy has had so much success during the regular season over the past decade.  However, when an opponent gets extra time to prepare for it, the Midshipmen are at a massive disadvantage.  They cannot adjust because that's all they run.  They is almost zero threat of the passing game.  Meyer will have the troops prepared to stop Keenan Reynolds and company.

Plays on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Ohio State Saturday.

25* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -3

It amazes me that the Colorado Buffaloes are only a 3-point favorite over the Colorado State Rams in the opener.  This is a clear line mistake, and one that we will take advantage of.  The Buffaloes beat the Rams 41-27 last year in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Buffaloes outgained the Rams 509-295 for the game.

Colorado only went 4-8 last season, and it is undervalued as a result.  This is the second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre, and the Buffaloes are going to surprise some teams this year.  They have 16 starters and 57 lettermen returning, while losing only 18 lettermen. 

That includes QB Sefo Liufao, who threw for 1,779 yards and 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions last year.  A whopping 13 of the top 16 tacklers are back on defense. MacIntyre went 1-15 in his first 16 games at San Jose State, but 16-6 in his next 22 games.  He will turn this program around as well.

Colorado State is getting too much respect for me coming into the season.  It is coming off an 8-6 season, which included a miracle comeback victory over Washington State in the bowl game as the Cougars simply gave it away.  That win over WSU is a big reason why this team is getting so much respect.  However, the losses are enormous, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams only bring back 12 starters this year.  They lose leading rusher Kapri Bibbs (1,741 yards, 31 TD) as well as four starters along the offensive line.  The defensive line brings back just one of four starters, so this team figures to get owned the trenches, and there's clearly no replacing Bibbs.

The Buffaloes finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, which included a 7-point loss at Utah as a 15-point underdog, a 29-47 home loss to USC as a 21-point dog, a 41-24 home win over Cal as a 2-point favorite, and a 23-45 loss at UCLA as a 28-point dog.  I look for them to continue being a covering machine not only at the start of 2014, but for much of the season as this team is vastly improved.  Bet Colorado Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UTSA +11.5

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football entering 2014.  I actually have them winning Conference USA's West Division and squaring off against Marshall in the C-USA Title Game.  I cannot say enough good things about fourth-year head coach Larry Coker, who has really done an excellent job with this team.

UTSA went 7-5 last year, but this will be the first year that it can be bowl eligible, and I believe it will get to a bowl.  This team comes in with a ton of momentum after going 5-0 in ts final five games of 2013 with wins over FBS opponents UAB (52-31), Tulsa (34-15), Tulane (10-7), North Texas (21-13) and Louisiana Tech (30-10).  Two of those five teams made bowl games.

Now, Coker will be working with the most experienced team in the entire country.  Indeed, UTSA returns a whopping 20 starters and 55 lettermen while losing only 10.  They had 18 starters back last year, so this is a veteran group that is used to playing one another.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year despite finishing -7 in turnover differential on the season, too.

Sure, UTSA lost 28-59 at home to Houston last season, but a deeper look into the box score shows that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Indeed, UTSA actually outgained Houston 493-491 for the game, but it finished -5 in turnover differential as it gave the ball away five times, while the Cougars didn't cough it up once.  In fact, this was a 31-28 game heading into the 4th quarter.  This 2014 rematch will be much closer, and I even give the Roadrunners a great shot to win it outright.

Houston thrived off of turnovers last year, and it comes into 2014 overvalued as a result.  It went 8-5 last year, but it was very fortunate to finish with that record thanks to leading the country in turnover differential (+25).  That's essentially an average of +2 in turnover differential per game.  The Cougars simply cannot rely on that again in 2014, and they aren't going to be as strong as a result.  They only outgained opponents 420-416 on the year.  They do have 17 returning starters and will be a quality team, but they are getting too much love as a double-digit favorite in the 2014 opener.

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  UTSA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  You'll learn to love this team once you watch them give the Cougars a run for their money Friday night.  Take UTSA Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Western Kentucky +8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be going through their third head coach in three years.  Both Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino capitalized on getting WKU to bowl eligibility in each of the last three seasons, and they both left for greener pastures.  Taggart is now the head coach at South Florida, while Petrino returns to Louisville.

Enter Jeff Brohm, who will actually keep some continuity on this team considering he was the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator under Petrino last year.  He played quarterback under Petrino at Louisville, so he certainly has learned under one of the best offensive minds in all of college football.

Brohm and the WKU offense will have plenty of success this year after putting up 30.8 points and 459 yards per game last season.  That's because eight starters return on this side of the ball, including senior QB Brandon Doughty, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,857 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He will need to cut back on his turnovers because the Hilltoppers finished -10 in turnover differential, but that's a sign that points upward for them heading into 2014.

Bowling Green is getting way too much respect after going 10-4 last year and winning the MAC.  That was a quality team, but they lose head coach Dave Clawson to Wake Forest, and they only have 12 starters back this year after bringing back 16 last year.  They are sure to take a big step back in 2014, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They only have five starters back on D, and they were extremely fortunate to give up 15.9 ppg last year because they gave up 20.3 yards per point, which is ridiculously high.

The Falcons also finish +10 in turnover differential last year to aid their cause.  They did go 3-2 in true road games, but their three wins came against lowly Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, who went a combined 6-30 last season.  They also lost at Indiana (10-42).  This is going to be a quality team again in 2014, but nowhere near as strong as 2013.  Asking the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown on the road against a quality WKU squad is simply asking too much.

Plays on home teams (W KENTUCKY) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WKU is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Roll with Western Kentucky Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +105

The New York Yankees (69-63) have won six of their last eight games overall to get within three games of Seattle and Detroit for the final wild card spot in the American League.  While the Yankees are surging, the Toronto Blue Jays (67-66) have been reeling for months and cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus.

Chris Capuano has filled in nicely as a starter for the Yankees this season, posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.239 WHIP over six starts.  He is 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, giving up two or fewer earned runs in two of the three starts.  He faced the Blue Jays once in 2014, giving up two earned runs over six innings on July 26.

Mark Buehrle is having a decent season overall for Toronto, going 11-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 26 starts.  He has struggled of late, going 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.668 WHIP in his last three starts.  Buehrle cannot figure out the Yankees, going 1-12 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.  His teams are 2-17 in those starts.

The Yankees are 41-17 in their last 58 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series.  New York is 22-10 in its last 32 meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Yankees Friday.

20* 2014 College Football Season Opener on Tulsa -4.5

Tulsa was coming off a Conference USA Title in 2012 as it went 11-3 and beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  It had gone a combined 29-11 in three seasons prior to 2013's 3-9 disaster.  There were a lot of signs pointing downward last year, though, as they had just nine returning starters, including two on defense.

I look for Tulsa to to be a much-improved team in 2014 with 15 returning starters for head coach Bill Blankenship.  A whopping 10 of those come on defense, where the Golden Hurricane will be vastly improved after giving up 33.9 points and 430 yards per game last year.  THe offense also figures to take a step forward despite only five starters coming back.  They had averaged at least 33 points per game in three years prior to 2013, where they averaged just 21.1 points.

Sophomore Dane Evans will be the QB after gaining valuable experience there last year.  He has the luxury of welcoming back junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who had 845 receiving yards in 2012 before missing all but two starts last year due to injury.  This is a talented set of skill players led by Garrett.  The defense has 17 of its top 19 tacklers back from last year and a ton of depth heading into 2014.

I was big on Tulane last year, and it delivered by going 7-6 and making it to a bowl game.  However, that team was very fortunate to get bowl eligible because it was nowhere near as good as its record would indicate.  In fact, it only gained 311 yards per game offensively while giving up 351 yards per game on defense.  It was actually outgained by 40 yards per game on the season.

The key to Tulane's season was finishing +11 in turnover differential, while Tulsa went -10 in turnover differential.  I expect some regression to the mean for both teams this year.  Tulane did beat Tulsa 14-7 at home last year despite getting outgained 301-344 for the game.  It forced four turnovers from Tulsa en route to victory.  I look for the Golden Hurricane to have their revenge at home this time around because they are a lot more experienced, while the Green Wave figure to take a step back as soon as the opener.

Tulsa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Tulane, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Before last year's 7-point loss, the Golden Hurricane had won their previous eight meetings with the Green Wave by 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points, respectively.  I look for them to get back to dominating this series in 2014 with a blowout home victory.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -118

The Atlanta Braves (69-64) are just 1.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are also 2.5 games behind St. Louis for the first spot.  While the Braves have everything to play for, the New York Mets (62-71) realize that they are pretty much playing out the string at this point.

I've been impressed with how Mike Minor has been able to bounce back down the stretch after a poor first half.  Indeed, the left-hander has gone 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has only allowed three earned runs and 11 base runners over 14 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds and A's.  Minor gave up two earned runs and four base runners over seven innings in his last start against New York on July 7.

Jon Niese is a quality big league starter, but he and the Mets are getting a little too much respect here given their situation.  Niese is 7-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in his last three starts.  Niese is also 6-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 16 career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Mets are 31-70 in their last 101 games as a home underdog.  New York is 0-4 in Niese's last four starts as an underdog.  The Mets are 0-5 in Niese's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Braves Thursday.

15* 2014 NFLX Season Finale on St. Louis Rams +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -125

The Atlanta Braves (68-64) trail the San Francisco Giants by 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.  After dropping the opener of this series to the New York Mets (62-70) Tuesday for their third straight loss overall, I look for the Braves to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 Wednesday.

They send ace Julio Teheran to the mound to get the job done.  The right-hander is having a tremendous season, going 12-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.079 WHIP over 27 starts.  He has owned the Mets, going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five career starts against them.

Zack Wheeler has been solid for New York as well, but he's not on the same level as Teheran.  Wheeler is 9-8 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 26 starts, including 4-4 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He has posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.

New York is 1-11 (-10.4 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base this season.  The Braves are 10-2 in Teheran's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 31-69 in their last 100 games as a home underdog.  New York is 0-5 in Wheeler's last five starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians +125

The Cleveland Indians (66-63) are still very much alive for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are 4.5 games back of Seattle for the last spot, and they're still alive in the AL Central race as well.  They'll be going for their 10th win in 14 games tonight.  They'll be up against a Chicago (59-71) team that has lost six in a row while scoring a combined 16 runs in the process.

Cleveland's starters have posted a 1.71 ERA during a 9-4 stretch.  T.J. House has settled into the rotation nicely of late.  The rookie left-hander hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts.  He has posted a 1.65 ERA in the month of August.  House gave up only one run and struck out eight in 6 1/3 innings in his lone career starts against Chicago on May 28.

Jose Quintana is having a solid season for the White Sox at 6-10 with a 3.25 ERA.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  Quintana is getting too much respect from the books here.  The White Sox have little to play for, and House is pitching much better than Quintana of late.

Cleveland is 29-7 (+19.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 48-18 (+23.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Quintana's last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Indians Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -128

The Pittsburgh Pirates (67-64) sit just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are also very much alive for the NL Central Title with a big finish.  After losing Game 1 of this series to the Cardinals (71-59), I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.

Gerrit Cole is one of the better young starters in the game today.  He has gone 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts.  Cole has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight starts.  Cole is also 2-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis.

Lance Lynn is having a solid season for St. Louis as well, going 14-8 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 26 starts.  However, he has been at his worst on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Lynn is 5-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 13-3 in Cole's last 16 starts as a favorite.  The Pirates are 6-1 in Cole's last seven starts overall.  Pittsburgh is 20-9 in its last 29 home games.  The Pirates are 6-0 in Cole's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five starts as an underdog.  Take the Pirates Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Washington Nationals are the hottest team in baseball over the last two weeks.  They have won 12 of their last 13 games overall and now own the best record in the National League at 75-54.  They wants to keep it rolling to try and earn the No. 1 seed in the NL.  That shouldn't be a problem against the Philadelphia Phillies (58-72), who have nothing to play for but pride.

Tanner Roark has been dominant this season for Washington, going 12-7 with a 2.80 ERA.  The right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last eight starts and 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last eight road starts.  He allowed one run and four base runners over seven innings of a 10-3 win at Philadelphia in his last start against the Phillies on July 13.

A.J. Burnett has had a terrible year for Philadelphia, going 6-14 with a 4.42 ERA.  He has matched a career high with six consecutive defeats and a 6.41 ERA in his last six starts as well.  Burnett leads the majors with 76 walks this season.  He gave up five runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start against Washington on August 2.

The Nationals are 73-34 in their last 107 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 7-1 in Roark's last eight starts.  The Phillies are 1-10 in Burnett's last 11 starts.  Philadelphia is 0-7 in Burnett's last seven starts as an underdog.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFLX Sunday No-Brainer on San Diego +6

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -136

After losing the first two games of this series to Pittsburgh, I look for the Milwaukee Brewers to dig deep and get a win in Game 3 Sunday to avoid the sweep.  I like the edge they have on the mound today, and they're worth the price of admission because of it.

Mike Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.524 WHIP over three starts this season.  He has allowed just two earned runs and 11 base runners while striking out 25 over 21 innings of work.

Vance Worley is having a solid season at 5-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.189 WHIP over 11 starts and three relief appearances.  However, he has struggled of late, giving up five earned runs over six innings in his last start.  Worley is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 8-1 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Brewers are 37-18 in their last 55 during game 3 of a series.  The Pirates are 114-242 in their last 356 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

15* Texans/Broncos NFLX No-Brainer on Houston +7

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -114

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Philadelphia Phillies, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.  They trail the Milwaukee Brewers by just 1.5 games for first place in the NL Central after winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Cardinals today.  He went 15-9 last year with a 3.06 ERA and 1.206 WHIP over 31 starts to flash his potential.  He hasn't been as effective in 2014, going 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.389 WHIP, but he is the better starter in this match-up.

David Buchanan gets the ball for Philadelphia.  He has gone 6-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in seven home starts.  Miller is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia.

The Cardinals are 38-18 in their last 56 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Miller's last four starts as a road favorite.  The Phillies are 1-4 in Buchanan's last five starts as an underdog.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Bucs/Bills NFLX Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on Chicago Bears +7

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -102

The Detroit Tigers (68-57) are showing tremendous value against the Minnesota Twins (56-70) today.  They are trying to chase down the Kansas City Royals for first place in the AL Central, while also holding on to a wild card spot.  They are 100% focused from here on in because of it.

I realize that Robbie Ray has not fared well this year, but it has been in limited action, so I'm willing to cut him some slack.  He has posted a 5.33 ERA over five starts and one relief appearance.  However, one of those starts came against Minnesota on May 11th.  Ray pitched six shutout innings in that game while allowing just five base runners in his best start of the year.

The Twins have lost four of five coming in, and starter Tom Milone is getting too much respect here.  He has gone 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA over 18 starts this season.  However, he was rocked in his last outing on August 17th, giving up six earned runs over 1 1/3 innings in a 6-12 loss to Kansas City.

Minnesota is 1-10 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last 3 seasons.  The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  The Twins are 29-65 in their last 94 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 21-9 in its last 30 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Steelers/Eagles NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 50.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall and own the best record in all of baseball with a 75-50 mark.  I look for them to sweep the lowly Boston Red Sox (56-70), who have pretty much quit on their season.

Matt Shoemaker has filled in for a couple guys in the starting rotation very nicely this year.  He has gone 11-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over 14 starts and seven relief appearances.  He is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Rubby De La Rosa has been decent for Boston in limited action as well.  He is 4-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 12 starts this year.  However, he gave up six earned runs and 13 base runners over four innings to Houston in his last start on August 16th.

The Angels are scoring 4.7 runs/game overall and 5.0 on the road.  The Red Sox are scoring 3.8 runs/game overall and 3.8 at home.  The Angels are 40-13 in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Red Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Angles Thursday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds +107

The Cincinnati Reds are highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight, but they are still just five games out in the NL wild card race with plenty to play for the rest of the way.  Their lone victory during this rough stretch came with tonight's starter on the mound.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in baseball.  He can be the majors' first pitcher to 16 victories while winning a sixth straight start Wednesday.  Cueto is 15-6 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.906 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He has allowed a total of seven runs while winning each of his last five starts.

In his last two starts against St. Louis, Cueto has pitched 14 innings while allowing just two runs on a pair of solo homers.  Lance Lynn has not fared well against Cincinnati, posting a 4.80 ERA in eight career starts.  In two starts against the Reds this year, Lynn has posted a 6.55 ERA while yielding eight runs in 11 innings.

Cueto is 13-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  Dating back further, Cincinnati is 42-16 in Cueto's last 58 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5.  The Reds have not been swept in St. Louis since Sept. 26-28, 2008, which is something that Cueto and company will be looking to avoid tonight.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -110

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (70-56) at this kind of price at home.  They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers last series to lose three in a row.

Kevin Correia has proven to be a solid addition to Los Angeles' rotation of late.  He has really turned it on in his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP while allowing just five earned runs and 16 base runners over 18 innings of work.

Ian Kennedy is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers for my liking tonight.  The right-hander is 9-10 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 25 starts this year, so he has had a good season, but he's overvalued as a result.  Kennedy is 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 14 career starts against Los Angeles.

Los Angeles is 38-9 (+27.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 16-3 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Padres are 0-5 in Kennedy's last five road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  San Diego is 0-4 in its last four games following an off day.  Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels (73-50) have won five of their last six to own baseball's best record.  The Boston Red Sox (56-68) have lost three of four and clearly have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  I'll take the Angels tonight due to the motivation and their edge on the mound.

Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball for Los Angeles tonight.  The right-hander has gone 13-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 26 starts this season and remains one of the best starters in baseball.  Weaver has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 17 career starts against Boston.

Allen Webster is no more than a fill-in starter for Boston.  He has gone 3-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in four starts this year.  Webster has been at his worst at home, where he is 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in two starts.

The Angels are 38-13 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 60-22 in Weaver's last 82 starts as a favorite.  The Angels are 11-1 in Weaver's last 12 Tuesday starts.  The Red Sox are 6-16 in their last 22 games as a home underdog.  Boston is 1-6 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* Browns/Redskins Monday Night MASSACRE on Cleveland +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels have climbed into first place in the AL West division thanks to a recent skid by the Oakland A's.  They have now the best record in baseball and have gone a bit under the radar this season with what the A's had been doing until recently.

C.J. Wilson clearly hasn't had his best season, but he is the better starter in tonight's matchup.  The left-hander has gone 9-8 with a 4.71 ERA over 22 starts this year.  Wilson has owned Boston, going 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine career starts.  His teams are 7-2 in those nine games.

Brandon Workman wouldn't start on most teams in the big leagues.  He has gone 1-6 with a 4.45 ERA over 10 starts and four relief appearances for the Red Sox.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in five starts.

Wilson is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 34-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line after allowing four runs or less four straight games over the last three seasons.

The Angels are 51-18 in their last 69 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Red Sox are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Boston is 0-6 in Workman's last six starts overall.  Bet the Angels Monday.

15* Broncos/49ers NFLX No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

 No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations. 

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value Sunday at essentially even money against the Minnesota Twins.  The Royals have won 19 of their last 24 games overall and are right in the thick of the AL Central race for the top spot in the division.

Jeremy Guthrie has really stepped up his game of late, going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts.  Guthrie is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 2-16 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Royals are 5-0 in Guthries last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +3.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* American League ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals -107

The Kansas City Royals (67-54) are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won 19 of their last 23 to jump into first place in the AL Central.  The Minnesota Twins (54-66) are not about to slow them down tonight.

Yordano Venture is having a quality season in his first as a full-time starter for the Royals.  He has gone 9-8 with a 3.45 ERA in 23 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three.  He gave up one earned run over seven innings of a 6-3 win over the Twins on July 31.

Phil Hughes has been the best starter on Minnesota's staff this year, but that's not saying much.  He is 12-8 with a 3.88 ERA in 24 starts, but has struggled at home, going 4-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 starts.  Hughes has also posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 career starts against Kansas City.

Minnesota is 6-28 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Ventura's last five starts vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens Money Line -110

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on San Diego Chargers +6

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Padres/Cardinals UNDER 7

Two of the worst offenses in the league square off tonight in the Padres (3.3 RPG, .225 AVG) and the Cardinals (3.7 RPG, .251 AVG).  I look for an absolute pitcher's duel tonight between two of the most underrated starters in baseball.

Tyson Ross has been dominant, going 11-10 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 25 starts with 160 strikeouts over 160 2/3 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Ross has faced the Cardinals once in his career, allowing one earned run over six innings of a 3-1 Padres' victory on July 29.

Lance Lynn is having the best year of his career.  The right-hander has gone 12-8 with a 2.97 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three.  Lynn has been at his best at home, going 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 13 starts.

Lynn is 8-0 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 21-5-3 in Padres last 29 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The UNDER is 27-10-1 in Ross' last 38 starts.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Lynn's last seven home starts.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Angels (70-49) have the second-best record in baseball.  They trail the Oakland A's by just two games for the AL West lead and will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way to go for it.  They had a day off yesterday and not get to face the league-worst Texas Rangers (47-74), who did not have yesterday off and lost the Rays (6-3).

Garrett Richards has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  The right-hander has gone 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 24 starts, including 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Richards is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in nine career starts against Texas. He has allowed one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers this season.

Nick Martinez is easily one of the worst starters in baseball.  The right-hander has gone 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season.  Martinez has been at his worst at home, going 0-4 with a monstrous 10.18 ERA and 2.361 WHIP in five starts.

The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Rangers with six of those victories coming by two runs or more.  The Rangers are 0-9 against the run line (-11.8 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.  Texas is 0-9 against the run line (-11.4 Units) in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Mariners/Tigers UNDER 8

I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers.  While Seattle has been terrible at the plate (3.9 RPG, .246 AVG) this year, it has made up for it by having the best team ERA in the majors.  In fact, their team ERA is sub-3.00 for the season.  Opponents are only hitting .224 and scoring 3.2 RPG against them this year.

James Paxton has been one of the bright young stars in Seattle's farm system.  He has gotten his chance to start briefly this season, and he has made the most of it.  Paxton has gone 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in four starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two road starts.

Rick Porcello is making his case as to why he should remain in Detroit's rotation.  The right-hander is having his finest season yet, going 13-7 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.144 WHIP over 22 starts and one relief appearance.  Porcello is 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts, and 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle.

The UNDER is 40-17-2 in Mariners last 59 games overall.  The UNDER is 25-8-1 in Mariners last 34 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Tigers last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds +110

Great value here for a Cincinnati Reds team that needs to make a run.  At 60-60, they trail the Brewers by 5.5 games for first place in the NL Central and the Cardinals by 3.5 games for the final NL wild card spot.  They should get right against the league-worst Colorado Rockies (46-74).

Alfredo Simon is having a tremendous season in Cincinnati this year.  The right-hander has gone 12-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 23 starts, including 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 12 road starts.  He'll be up against a Rockies team that is without their two best players in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Jorge De La Rosa has been the best starter in Colorado's rotation this year, but that's not saying much.  The left-hander has gone 11-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 23 starts.  De La Rosa hasn't had any success against tonight's opponent, going 2-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in four career starts against the Reds.

Cincinnati is 34-8 (+25.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last three seasons.  The Rockies are 12-43 in their last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Colorado is 5-22 in its last 27 during game 1 of a series.

Simon is 9-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.  The Reds are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 7-0 in Simons last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Cincinnati. Bet the Reds Thursday.

15* Jaguars/Bears NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +4

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -106

The A's (73-46) put an end to the Royals' (64-54) eight games winning streak last night with an emphatic 11-3 victory.  The Royals had taken over first place in the AL Central and had a letdown.  This happened earlier in the season as well after taking the AL Central lead, and the letdown lasted for a while.  I look for it to spill over into Game 2 tonight.

Oakland sends left-hander Scott Kazmir to the mound tonight.  He has gone 13-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  The Royals are scoring just 3.6 runs per game against southpaws in 2014.

Lefty Jason Vargas gets the ball for the Royals.  He has been solid for the most part, going 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 21 starts.  However, he is 4-3 with a 4.69 ERA in 11 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in his last three.  The A's are scoring 5.0 runs per game against southpaws this year.

Kazmir is 28-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The A's are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a road favorite.  Oakland is 65-29 in its last 94 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The A's are 10-1 in Kazmir's last 11 starts on four days of rest.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

15* White Sox/Giants Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -112

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back ace Chris Sale at this kind of price.  I'll take advantage and back the Chicago White Sox tonight against the reeling San Francisco Giants, who have lost four in a row and just cannot seem to turn it around.

Sale has put up Cy Young-type numbers in 2014.  Indeed, the left-hander has gone 10-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 18 starts.  He has been at his best away from home, going 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in six road starts.

Ryan Vogelsong has had a nice bounce-back season for the Giants, but he's still no match for Sale.  The right-hander has gone 7-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 23 starts this year.

San Francisco is 1-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after two straight games with one or less extra base hits this season.  The White Sox are 6-1 in their last seven during game 1 of a series.  Chicago is 40-19 in its last 59 interleague games as a favorite.  The Giants are 7-21 in their last 28 home games.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Vogelsong's last six home starts.  Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.

20* NL Mound Mismatch GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -140

The Washington Nationals (63-53) had Monday off and will be the fresher, more focused team tonight as they look to extend their NL East lead.  The New York Mets (57-62) played yesterday and now return home from a seven-game road trip.  That first home games following a long road trip tends to lead to a letdown for players.

The biggest reason I'll be laying this juice on the Nationals today is due to their edge on the mound.  Doug Fister is 11-3 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 16 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in his last three.

Fister is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  He'll be opposed by Rafael Montero, who is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP In his last four starts.  He's no more than a fill-in starter for New York.

The Nationals are 38-14 in their last 52 meetings with the Mets, including 22-4 in their last 26 meetings in New York.  The Mets are 30-65 in their last 95 games as a home underdog.  Washington is 7-0 in its last seven after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -144

The St. Louis Cardinals (62-55) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing Game 1 of this series by a final of 5-6 for their third loss in four games.  They now trail the Brewers by three games for first place in the NL Central.

Ace Adam Wainwright is here to bail them out.  The right-hander has gone 14-6 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 9-3 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins.

Jarred Cosart will take the ball for the Marlins in this one.  The right-hander has gone 9-8 this season, but he has posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.447 WHIP over 21 starts.  Cosart is 4-5 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three.

The Cardinals are 52-20 in Wainwright's last 72 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts vs. NL East opponents.  Wainwright is 12-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central.  They will be motivated for a victory Monday as they take on the Miami Marlins (57-60), who return from a long road trip.  That first game home after a long trip is usually tough for players for family reasons.

After getting a two-week break from St. Louis' rotation, Shelby Miller has come back a different starter.  He has gone 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.589 WHIP in three starts since that break.  He allowed one run and four hits to Boston his last time out.

Tom Koehler is having a solid season for the Marlins, going 7-9 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 23 starts.  However, in his lone career start against St. Louis last year, Koehler gave up nine runs and two homers over 4 2/3 innings of a 7-13 home loss on June 15.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last four starts as a road favorite.  The Marlins are 18-37 in their last 55 vs. National League Central opponents.  Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's last four starts vs. NL Central foes.  The Marlins are 7-16 in Koehler's last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings and 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -113

The Atlanta Braves represent my strongest play of the entire 2014 season on the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball stage.  Yes, I have ridden them a lot without success of late, but they have also lost a lot of games by a single run or in extra innings, as was the case again last night.

I look for them to redeem themselves tonight with the edge they have on the mound as they try and chase down the Nationals for first place.  Alex Wood has posted a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts and 11 relief appearances this year, including a 2.96 ERA in the 15 starts.  Wood is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington.

Gio Gonzalez has finally started showing signs of slowing down this season.  The left-hander is 6-8 with a 4.01 ERA in 18 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts.  Gonzalez is 2-7 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against Atlanta.

The Nationals are 18-40 in their last 58 games as a road underdog.  Washington is 0-5 in Gonzalez's last five starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Atlanta is 23-7 in its last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +102

The Atlanta Braves returned home yesterday and put an end to an eight-game losing streak with a 7-6 victory over the rival Nationals, who they now trail by 3.5 games in the NL East.  I look for them to keep the foot on the gas and to get a victory in Game 2 at a tremendous price at home tonight.

Aaron Harang is having a great season in Atlanta, going 9-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 23 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 12 starts.  Harang has posted a 3.72 ERA in 10 career starts against Washington as well.

Tanner Roark is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He has gone 11-7 with a 2.94 ERA in 22 starts out of nowhere.  However, he has posted a 3.49 ERA in 11 road starts and has been at his worst away from home.  Roark has also given up six earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Atlanta is 22-7 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.  The Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

20* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay +2

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NFLX Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo Bills -1.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -110

The Pittsburgh Pirates are hitting .297 with 36 runs during a 4-2 start this month despite some key absences in the lineup, including Andrew McCutchen.  They have pulled within a half-game of wild card leaders St. Louis and San Francisco, and they are just 1 1/2 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central.

Vance Worley has proven to be a tremendous addition to the rotation.  The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP over eight starts and three relief appearances.  He is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts, and 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against San Diego.

Ian Kennedy has gone 8-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 23 starts this season for San Diego.  He has struggled a bit of late, going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  Also, Kennedy is 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA in his last two starts at Pittsburgh, the latest a 10-1 loss on September 19th.

Worley is 20-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in his career.  San Diego is 6-24 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by two runs or less over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 23-8 in its last 31 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Pirates Friday.

15* NFLX Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +3.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.