Winning Sports Picks

15* Packers/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -3

Aaron Rodgers is oh-so-close to coming through on his prediction that the Packers would run the table after their 4-6 start to the season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, with their only non-cover coming against Chicago after they blew a late 17-point lead.  The other four wins have all come by 8 points or more.

I'm going to back Rodgers and company to finish the job they started.  They have all the momentum in the world right now, and I just don't think the Detroit Lions are the type of team that can stop them.  Especially with the way the Lions are playing right now.  I realize that we are paying a premium with the Packers here as 3-point road favorites, but I don't think it is going to matter.

Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.  He has thrown 14 touchdown passes without an interception in the past six games.  He carved up a great Minnesota defense last week for 347 passing yards and four touchdowns, while adding a rushing score in the 38-25 victory.  Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3 and has consistently torched them throughout his career.  Keep in mind the Packers led that game 31-3 before calling off the dogs.

It's a minor miracle the Lions even have a chance to win their division.  They have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 14 of their 15 games this season, and they only have nine wins because Matthew Stafford has an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comeback victories this season.  It was obvious their luck would run out, and it clearly has.

The Lions have been thoroughly outplayed in their last two games.  They lost 6-17 to the Giants and 21-42 to the Cowboys the last two weeks.  Stafford went a combined 71-of-120 passing (59.2%) with four interceptions in his last three games overall.  This came after he suffered ligament damage to his right middle finger in the 20-17 win over Chicago three weeks ago.  He hasn't been the same since.

And Stafford is getting a lot of love lately, but he is just 4-42 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record.  And Rodgers should torch a Lions secondary that ranks 32nd against the pass according to Pro Football Outsiders.  The Lions have allowed 73% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.  They've given up 29 touchdown passes while registering just 20 sacks, so their pass rush is an issue, too.  And star CB Darius Slay missed last week's game due to injury and is questionable to return this week.

The schedule makers did the Lions no favors here, either.  The Lions had to play the Cowboys on Monday Night Football last week, while the Packers played the Vikings on Saturday.  So the Packers will essentially have two more days to get ready for this game than the Lions, who put a lot into that MNF game to try and clinch a playoff spot.  This is a very tough situation for the Lions here working on a short week with all of their injuries.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Packers are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North opponents.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Indiana Pacers have underachieved up to this point of the season.  And I think they're going to be a good bet moving forward here.  I certainly like backing them at home as they are 12-5 SU & 9-8 ATS in home games this season.

I think the Orlando Magic come into this game overvalued.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But they are coming off a 101-120 home loss to the Hornets, and they played that game without leading scoring Evan Fournier, who is questionable to play again tonight.

This is a matchup that the Pacers clearly love.  In fact, the Pacers are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  They have absolutely dominated the Magic at home, going 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings with ALL nine victories coming by 10 points or more.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -7

The Atlanta Falcons are re-energized now after the Seahawks were upset by the Cardinals last week.  Now all the Falcons have to do is win this week against the Saints and they'll get the No. 2 seed and first-round bye.  They will certainly be locked in and focused to finish the job that they started and to have next week off.

The Falcons are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now.  They have won their last three games by an average of 24 points per game.  They have the league's top-ranked offense at 34 points and 413 yards per game on average.  What makes those numbers so impressive is that they've faced the league's toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses played.

While the offense gets all the credit, and rightfully so, the defense is playing their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, which is why they are blowing teams out on the regular.

I think the fact that the Saints haven't quit and have won their last two games over the Cardinals and Bucs the past two weeks is providing some line value here.  But we saw what happened earlier this season when these teams met in New Orleans.  The Falcons won that game 45-32 while racking up 442 total yards.  They can name their score on this awful Saints defense.

You could make the argument that the Falcons are the best team in the NFL.  They rank 1st in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play every time they snap the football.  The second-best mark in the league is 0.6 yards per play, which is a huge gap.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. NFC South foes.  The Saints are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 17.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone a perfect 8-0 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game on average.  We'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites over Northern Iowa here.

Northern Iowa is one of the most overrated teams in the land.  The Panthers are still getting too much credit for making the NCAA Tournament last year and winning a game, but this isn't nearly as good of a team.  That's evident by their 5-7 SU & 3-8 ATS record this year.  The Panthers have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while going 1-8 ATS in the process.  Their only wins came at home against North Dakota and South Dakota State.

The Purple Aces have had this game circled on their calendars.  Remarkably, they went 0-3 against Northern Iowa last season with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  They lost by 3, 2 and 2 points to the Panthers.  There's no question they are going to want some revenge here, and I think they get it in a big way.

Northern Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Evansville Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed me a lot last week in their 38-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.  Yes, Marcus Mariota was knocked out, but that game was over by the time he departed.  They outgained the Titans by 152 yards. What makes the win even more impressive is that the Titans needed it to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars stepped up to the plate and denied them.

Obviously, the Jaguars should have made the switch to interim coach Doug Marrone a lot sooner.  He has previous head coaching experience in Buffalo and actually did a great job there.  The Jaguars have suffered seven losses by a TD or less this season, so they are way better than their record, but Gus Bradley just wasn't getting it done late in games.

Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of the season, and should have another huge game against this awful Colts secondary.  He completed 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Tennessee.  In their 30-27 win over the Colts in London, Bortles threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.  And the Jaguars beat the Colts 51-16 in their final meeting last year, throwing for 250 yards and three scores with zero INTs.

The Colts are in an awful spot here mentally.  They just had their dream-crushing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, falling 25-33.  That loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Now the quotes coming from the players and coaches are talking about how it was a lost season, and they are already looking ahead to next year.  They could care less about beating the Jaguars here after just getting eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a very young team with some very nice pieces moving forward.  They will relish this opportunity to pull the season sweep of their division rivals, who have dominated this division for years.  There's no question in my mind that we are getting the more motivated team.  I'm also pretty sure we are getting the better team, and that team is catching 4.5 points.

The Jaguars actually rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 8.4 yards per game.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in giving up just 317.5 yards per game.  The Colts rank 22nd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 14.0 yards per game.  Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 377.1 yards per game.  They just allowed 459 total yards to the Raiders last week in a game they needed to win.

Indianapolis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a close loss by 7 points or less.  Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Nebraska/Maryland Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -7.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 13-1 this season, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were only 3-point home favorites over Illinois in their Big Ten opener, and I backed them successfully in an 84-59 blowout win.

I'm going to back the Terrapins again here Sunday at this short 7.5-point spread.  The main reason I like them here is because it's a good spot to fade the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are coming off their biggest win of the season.  They beat Indiana 87-83 as 13.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.

Now the Cornhuskers are primed for a letdown here.  That's an Indiana team that is really struggling of late with recent double-digit losses to Louisville and Butler as well.  So I think the Huskers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for that victory.  After all, the Huskers were terrible in their previous four games, losing to Creighton by 15, to Kansas by 17, to Gardner Webb by 8 as 14-point favorites, and they barely beat Southern 81-76 at home.

Nebraska is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Maryland is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 home games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Cornhuskers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Bet Maryland Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11

The Utah Jazz are finally getting back to full strength as George Hill has returned to the lineup.  Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.1 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.3 apg).  He has only played in 12 games this season, and they won the last five in which he did.

Hill had 21 points, 8 boards and 6 assists in his return to the lineup on Thursday in a 100-83 win over Philadelphia.  The fact that the Jazz have posted a 20-13 record this season with Hill missing so much time just shows how good this team really is.  They're going to be very dangerous moving forward.

The Phoenix Suns are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They  haven't even been competitive as five of those six losses came by 13 points or more.  And the Suns are in a letdown spot off a huge home win over the Raptors on Thursday, but that was an awful spot for Toronto after playing the Warriors the night before.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 17.2 points per game on average.  The domination continues today as Utah rolls to a blowout home victory.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Ohio State/Clemson Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson +3.5

I would argue that this is the worst team Urban Meyer has had at Ohio State.  The Buckeyes got off to a tremendous start this season, but they have really backed their way into the four-team playoff with some fortunate victories along the way.

The Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They were lucky to survive Wisconsin in overtime, lost to Penn State as 17.5-point favorites, only beat Northwestern by 4 as 25.5-point favorites, only beat Michigan State 17-16 as 20.5-point favorites, and survived a double-OT game against Michigan 30-27 as 4.5-point favorites.

I realize the Clemson also survived some scares this season, but I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team.  The Tigers went on to win their final three games with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina and a 42-35 victory over VA Tech in the ACC Championship.  However, that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing some points in garbage time.

Urban Meyer gets massive respect from everyone, and he deserves it.  But I would put Dabo Swinney's credentials up against his and take Swinney with what he has done recently.  Most don't realize this, but Swinney 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games.  All five came in the underdog role.  
 
Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and '15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year.  No team has been more impressive in bowls than Clemson the past five years.

J.T. Barrett just isn't making big plays in the passing game.  The Buckeyes lack talented receivers, and they are just so predictable.  They only managed 23 points at the end of regulation against Wisconsin, 21 against Penn State, 24 against Northwestern, 17 against Michigan State and 17 at the end of regulation against Michigan.  Barrett is 25-of-54 for 210 yards in his last two games, which is under 4.0 yards per attempt.

And this is a Clemson team that is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, especially the defensively.  The Tigers have 31 more sacks than their opponents this season.  This is a defense that gives up just 18.4 points, 126 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and 188 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

Ohio State was not strong at the line of scrimmage this year, only getting one more sack than their opponents on the season.  The Buckeyes were out-sacked by Penn State and Michigan by a combined 11 sacks, and Barrett was sacked 14 times in those two games.  Clemson is 2nd nationally in sacks this season, behind only Florida State.

Clemson boasts one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 40.2 points, 504.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I like the fact that this team has experience in these big-game situations after falling just short last year, and they want to make amends.  Deshaun Watson also feels snubbed for finishing 2nd to Lamar Jackson in the Heisman Trophy voting.  Ohio State is a young squad with just six returning starters from last year that won't be ready for the moment.

Swinney is not only 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games, but 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in his career at Clemson, and also 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Tigers.  We'll take these two never-lost systems straight to the bank Saturday.  Take Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

20* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +15

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been hearing about how great they are for a month.  Washington players have been hearing about how they have no chance.  Which team do you think will be more motivated?  It's obviously the Huskies, I fully expect them to give Alabama a game here.

Washington will be the best team that Alabama has faced this season.  You could make the case for LSU, and they were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter.  But while Alabama has faced three teams with Top 10 defenses and one Top 10 offense this season, it hasn't faced a team with both.  The Huskies rank 6th in offense and 5th in defense in the country.

Most teams would be overrated if they led the nation in turnover margin like Washington, but that's just a staple of Chris Petersen-coached teams.  But Alabama actually led the country in defensive and special teams touchdowns, averaging more than one per game, which is unheard of.  The Huskies won't make those same colossal mistakes that others teams have made against the Crimson Tide this season.

I love getting Petersen in the underdog role.  He is 6-0 ATS as a dog in his career with extra time to prepare.  Peterson is also 5-0 all-time in Top-10 matchups.  He pulled off two outright upsets as underdogs dating back to his time at Boise State.  I trust him to come up with a game plan that will give his team the best chance of being competitive in this game.

One advantage the Huskies are going to have is in the passing game.  Jalen Hurts was inconsistent throwing the football this season, and it won't get any easier against a Huskies team that ranks 9th in pass-efficiency defense.  They can make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional here.  And the Huskies have Jake Browning, who ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage and TD passes on throws of at least 25 yards downfield.  He has thrown for a school-record 42 touchdowns on the season.

Washington's top four receivers average 17.2 yards per catch, and they have two studs in Dante Pettis and John Ross on the outside that can take the top off this Alabama defense.  The Crimson Tide rank 67th and 55th nationally in pass plays of more than 20 and 30 yards allowed, respectively.  Washington's offense ranks 38th and 9th in those two categories.  The Tide allowed several big passing plays against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which are two of the most similar offenses to this Washington outfit.

It's not like the Huskies are slouches against the run, either.  They give up just 124 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry against teams who average 176 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Petersen is 9-1 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games in all games he has coached.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Bet Washington in the Peach Bowl.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +9

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the top teams in the country in my opinion.  They are off to a 13-1 start this season.  They had a bad loss to Temple on a neutral court, but they've also beating some good teams in Illinois (by 11), Minnesota (by 8), George Washington (by 19), Florida (by 5) and Wake Forest (by 16).

I think Virginia comes in overvalued here due to back-to-back road wins and covers against both California and Louisville.  Well, California is down a notch this year, and Louisville was in a letdown spot off its huge win over Kentucky in its previous game.

We've seen Virginia actually play better on the road than at home this year.  The Cavaliers lost to West Virginia 57-66 at home, and they barely escaped with a 63-61 victory over Ohio State as 12-point favorites.  I think the Seminoles are good enough to stay within 9 points here and possibly pull off the upset.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 10-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  The Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* Villanova/Creighton Battle of Unbeatens on Creighton +1

The Creighton Bluejays are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 13-0 start this season and have consistently been undervalued, going 9-3 ATS in their lined games.  I have backed them for a handful of them, and I'm going to take them here as they still aren't getting the respect they deserve.

Of course the defending champion Villanova Wildcats are going to be getting a ton of respect from the betting public.  That is the case here as they are road favorites.  But the Wildcats aren't as good as they were last year, and they just survived a 68-65 scare at home against DePaul as 24.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

The Bluejays have beaten some good teams along the way.  They beat Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss on neutral courts, Nebraska and Arizona State in true road games by 15 and 11 points, respectively.  They also beat a very good Wisconsin team by 12 in their toughest home game this year.  They are battle-tested and ready to show Villanova that they are the team to beat in the Big East this year.

Creighton is 12-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Big East games.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.  It will be rocking today at Creighton, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1

Wake Forest has taken a big step forward under Danny Manning this season.  The Demon Deacons are 9-4 this season while playing an absolutely brutal schedule.  Their four losses have all come on the road to the likes of Villanova, Northwestern, Xavier and Florida State.  They were in three of those games down to the wire.

But the Demon Deacons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game.  I just backed them recently in a 110-76 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites.  They have won all five of their home games by double-digits this year.

Clemson is a quality team, but this team hasn't been tested on the road.  The Tigers have played just one true road game, which was a 62-60 win at South Carolina in which they trailed basically the entire way before pulling it out in the closing seconds.  I don't believe they will be so fortunate in this one.

Clemson is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games after covering four or five of its last six against the spread.  The Demon Deacons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.  Wake Forest is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 79-44 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (WAKE FOREST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* LSU/Louisville Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -3

I think LSU is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers were much better than an 8-4 team this season.  Their four losses came by a combined 23 points to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama and Florida.  They had a game-winning TD called back against Auburn on the final play, were tied with Alabama in the 4th quarter, and outgained Florida by 153 yards and clearly should have won that game if not for red zone issues.

I like the fact that Ed Orgeron signed a new contract, giving this program some stability, and the players clearly love him.  One of the best defensive coordinators in the country is sticking around in Dave Aranda, and now they hired one of the best offensive minds in the nation in Matt Canada for the future, who worked wonders at Pitt this season.  Things are looking up in Baton Rouge as the players, coaches and fans are all excited for the future.

I think Aranda's defense will be extremely motivated in this game.  They have been seeing Lamar Jackson posters all week leading up to this game after he won the Heisman Trophy.  They will be hungry to shut him down, and now I feel like this is the best defense he will have faced all season.  The Tigers have the speed to make Jackson a one-dimensional passer, and that is clearly his weakness.

I love the way that LSU finished the season when it could have packed it in after that loss to Florida.  The Tigers went out an dominated Texas A&M 54-39 on the road in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And another reason I say this is better than an 8-4 team is because seven of the eight wins came by double-digits, while all four losses came in a closing seconds.

Louisville faced a ridiculously easy schedule this season and only has beaten one team that finished the season with a winning record in Florida State.  And the Cardinals have been overvalued since that win, going just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  There have been several lackluster performances along the way.

Louisville only beat Duke 24-14 as 35-point favorites, only beat Virgina 32-25 as 32-point favorites, were actually trailing Wake Forest 12-10 in the 4th quarter, were blown out by Houston 36-10 as 17.5-point favorites, and were upset by Kentucky 38-41 as 28.5-point favorites.  With those five results, I don't know how you could possibly trust Louisville here.

I know Leonard Fournette won't play in this game, but I'm not concerned about that.  Derrius Guice is just as good, and I would argue even more explosive, as he has rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 8.0 yards per carry.  Fournette averaged 6.5 per carry this season.

And LSU is going to be able to run the football against this Louisville defense that gave up 201 yards and 6.5 per carry to Clemson and 229 yards and 5.3 per carry to Kentucky on the ground.  And the Cardinals have been sloppy with the football to say the last, ranking 108th in the country in giveaways with 31 on the season.  They have committed multiple turnovers in 10 of their 12 games, and 3-plus in eight of them.  They cannot be trusted because of it.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orgeron is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average at least 8 yards per pass attempt in all games he has coached.  I think Louisville is a one-trick pony with Jackson, and it will be at a disadvantage everywhere else on the field in this game.  Roll with LSU in the Citrus Bowl.

20* Michigan/FSU Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida State +7

The Michigan Wolverines had their dreams crushed with a 27-30 (OT) loss to Ohio State in the season finale that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game, and thus out of the four-team playoff. So while most teams would be excited to be going to the Orange Bowl, the Wolverines are not.

At the same time, the Florida State Seminoles are excited to be here. They had three losses through their first eight games of the season an easily could have packed it in. Instead, they went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games and finished playing their best football of the season. They were rewarded by earning this trip to the Orange Bowl and clearly want to take advantage.

Michigan won a total of one game outside the state of Michigan this season, which was at lowly Rutgers. The Wolverines also faced only two offenses that ranked in the top 35 nationally in efficiency. One of those was a Penn State team that was clearly not as good when they played them as they are now. The other was Ohio State in the finale.

Florida State was oh-so-close to being an 11-1 team this season. The Seminoles lost on a 55-yard field goal to North Carolina on the final play of the game. They also lost in the final minutes to Clemson on a fluke penalty, and the Tigers are going to the four-team playoff.

Since October 8th, Florida State ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Seminoles have allowed just three touchdowns in their last 42 opponent drives, and they didn’t allow a single first down in 25 of those drives. They lead the nation with 47 sacks as well. They face a Michigan offense that scored only six touchdowns in their final 38 drives while failing to gain a first down in 16 of those.

I don’t believe Michigan has faced an offense as talented and explosive as this FSU unit. The Seminoles have Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 4,319 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career, which are school records. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of the past nine games. Deondre Francois is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the nation, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,128 yards with 18 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

Florida State played the much tougher schedule this season. Eight of FSU’s 12 opponents played rank in the top 40, while only five opponents played by Michigan rank in the top 40. The betting public has been all over Michigan all season and continues to be in this Orange Bowl, but I think this is about as evenly-matched a bowl game as there is. Thus, getting a touchdown here with the Seminoles is a huge value.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing defenses who allow 5.75 or fewer yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three years. Michigan is 26-46 ATS in its last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

15* Bulls/Pacers NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of them came on the road.  But the Pacers are 11-5 at home this season and are primed to bounce back here.

Adding to the Pacers' motivation is the fact that they just lost to the Bulls 85-90 on the road on Monday.  So, they are going to be out for revenge.  Paul George voiced his frustration with the officiating in that game as the Bulls shot 28 free throws compared to just 10 for the Pacers.  Don't be surprised if the refs favor the Pacers in the rematch.

The Bulls haven't exactly been world beaters of late and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  They are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with two of their victories coming by a combined 7 points.  One was a 101-99 home victory over lowly Brooklyn as 9.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

Indiana has won 33 of its last 45 home meetings with Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Indiana.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 23-8 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

The UMass Minutemen are off to a 10-3 start this season.  They have been an undervalued commodity all year, which is evident by their 6-1 ATS mark.  And now they're only laying 1.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure, once again lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

UMass has gone 8-1 at home this season.  And their three losses all came down to the wire as they could easily be 13-0.  They lost by 2 at Ole Miss as 11-point dogs, by 6 at Providence as 8-point dogs and by 3 at home to UCF as 4-point dogs, covering the spread in all three defeats.

St. Bonaventure just lost to Canisius 101-106 as 11.5-point home favorites last time out.  They have also lost to the likes of UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock this season.  They are just 8-4 on the season and are clearly down a couple notches from last year.  They really don't have a significant win yet.  And they've only played one true road game, which was a 6-point win at Hofstra.

UMass is 9-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  The Bonnies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Minutemen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take UMass Friday.

15* Nebraska/Tennessee Music City Bowl Mismatch on Tennessee -6.5

The Vols come into the bowl season undervalued because they underachieved this season. And they left a bad taste in bettors’ mouths with a 34-45 loss at Vanderbilt as 7.5-point favorites in the finale. But that was a bad spot for the Vols as they had been eliminated from SEC East contention the previous week as Florida beat LSU. And the Commodores wanted that game more as they were looking for their sixth win to get bowl eligible.

I think we’ll see a big effort from the Vols here to go out on a high note. When they have been motivated, they’ve taken care of business this season. And we’ve seen the last two years that Butch Jones knows how to get his teams ready for bowl games. And Jones knows that he needs a win here to get back in the good graces of the fans.

The last two years the Vols have dominated the Big Ten in bowl games. They beat Iowa 45-28 in the 2014 TaxSlayer Bowl as 3-point favorites. Then they easily covered last year as 10-point favorites over Northwestern in a 45-6 beat down in the Outback Bowl. I think we see history repeat itself here.

There is a big gap in strength of schedule between these teams. Tennessee played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country, while Nebraska played the 64th. The Huskers started 7-0, but it was a deceptive 7-0. They should have lost to lowly Oregon, and they needed second-half comebacks to beat both Illinois and Purdue, two terrible teams. We saw what happened when the Huskers took a step up in class, losing to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined score of 102-13.

And now the Huskers are expected to be without starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That means backup Ryker Fyfe will get the nod. Fyfe has struggled in limited action, completing just 49.2% of his passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. Not to mention top wideout Jordan Westerkamp is expected to miss this game with a knee injury.

The extra bowl practices have helped the Volunteers get as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The one player I trust the most in this game is senior QB Joshua Dobbs, who wants to end his career a winner. And Dobbs has this Tennessee offense hitting on all cylinders.

They have averaged 50.2 points over their last four games and Dobbs has had a hand in 15 of the 27 touchdowns scored. Dobbs holds the single-season rushing mark for a quarterback, and leads the SEC in touchdown passes (26), passer efficiency (152.6) and points responsible for (216). I just don’t know how Nebraska is going to keep up with Dobbs and company with a backup QB in Fyfe.

Tennessee is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Nebraska is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games vs. good rushing teams who average at least 200 yards per game. Keep in mind that this will essentially be a home game for the Vols played in Nashville, which will also be a huge advantage. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.

15* Stanford/UNC Sun Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -3.5

I know that Stanford will not have Christian McCaffrey, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. I actually think it motivates them even more because there will be a bunch of naysayers out there thinking they can’t win without him. This team is already motivated to get to 10 wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, which would be impressive considering they've played the 9th-toughest schedule in the country.

It’s not like backup Bryce Love is incapable, either. Love had 111 yards in the final regular-season game, he had 82 yards on five carries against Oregon, and a season-high 129 yards in the win at Notre Dame. He is actually averaging 7.4 yards per carry compared to 6.3 per carry for McCaffrey.

And Love is primed for a big game on the ground against a UNC defense that cannot stop the run, which is going to be the difference in this game. The Tar Heels allowed a ridiculous 236 rushing yards per game, 28 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They were blitzed by Baylor in their bowl game last year and gave up over 600 rushing yards in the loss.

Stanford comes in playing well having won five in a row. Its offense has averaged over 543 yards per game over the past three contests. The difference was replacing Ryan Burns with sophomore Keller Chryst, who led the Cardinal to those five wins while throwing nine touchdowns and only one interception. And the Cardinal have been great in bowl games, covering six of their last seven, including winning the last two by 24 and 29 points as favorites.

Mitch Trubisky is a heck of a quarterback for the Tar Heels, but he’s more concerned about staying healthy and possibly being the top QB taken in the NFL Draft. And I don’t know how invested the Tar Heels will really be for this game after losing to rivals Duke and NC State to finish the season despite being double-digits favorites in both games. Those losses cost them a potential berth in the ACC Championship Game. ACC teams have lost five of the last six Sun Bowls.

And the strength of the Cardinal defense is the pass D, which ranks 10th in the country in pass defense efficiency. The defensive backfield was banged up early in the season but is healthy now. The Cardinal only allow 54.3% completions, 219 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. So the UNC offensive strength is the strength of the Stanford D, while the UNC defensive weakness is the strength of the Stanford offense. That makes this a great matchup for the Cardinal, which is the main reason I like them here.

Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games vs teams who average at least 425 yards per game on offense. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS vs. poor ball control teams who possess the ball for 28 or fewer minutes per game over the last two seasons. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games. Stanford is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +11.5

The San Diego Toreros are a much-improved team this season.  They have gone 7-5 SU & 6-2 ATS in all games this year.  And four of their five losses have come to elite competition, and they covered the spread in a couple of those.

They lost by 10 at San Diego State as 19-point dogs and by 20 at UCLA as 27.5-point dogs.  After a 2-5 start to the season, the Toreros have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs three times during this stretch, including twice on the road.

San Francisco is coming off a huge tournament in which it got to play Utah, Illinois State and San Diego State all on neutral courts.  It culminated in a 48-62 loss to San Diego State on Christmas Day, which gives these teams a common opponent.  San Diego lost by only 10 at San Diego State.

One thing that has stuck with me the last few years is that San Francisco has been a great road team, and a terrible home team.  The Dons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series.  Roll with San Diego Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are hungry for a victory after losing two straight and five of their last seven.  They are now undervalued here as only 1.5-point home favorites here because of their recent losing ways, but this is still one of the better teams in the Western Conference at 20-14 on the season.

It's the perfect storm really because the Oklahoma City Thunder coming in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have mostly feasted on some poor opponents as their last six games have come against the Suns, Hawks, Pelicans, Celtics, Timberwolves and Heat.  Now they take a step up in class here tonight.

The Grizzlies have been a thorn in the Thunder's side, winning four of the last seven meetings, and all of those were with Kevin Durant on the team.  And home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series of late as well as they home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite it 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Oklahoma City is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four Thursday games.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn -1.5

The Auburn Tigers continue flying under the radar this season.  Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job with the Tigers and has them off to a 10-2 start this season.  They have been competitive in every game outside of a neutral court loss to Purdue.

But they've beaten the likes of Texas Tech 67-65 as 6.5-point dogs, UAB 74-70 as 4-point dogs, Oklahoma 74-70 as 4.5-point dogs and UConn 70-67 as 3.5-point road dogs.  So, they are battle-tested as well and certainly haven't benefited from a cake schedule.

Georgia is just 8-4 this season.  Three of those losses came by double-digits.  The Bulldogs are 1-2 in true road games with a 10-point loss at Clemson, a win at down Georgia Tech, and a 7-point loss at Oakland despite being 2.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are battle-tested as well, but they have failed every test when taking a step up in class. I'm not sure why they continue to get so much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road dogs.

Auburn has gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Georgia, and this is the best team the Tigers have had in a long time.  Auburn is 10-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks played in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West.  As a result, they played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country this season and managed to go 7-5.  They only had one bad loss all season as they only lost once as a favorite, which was a 24-28 loss at Missouri in the finale in a game the Tigers were treating as their Super Bowl.  And they never should have lost as they blew a 24-7 lead and outgained the Tigers by 104 yards.

I think that loss will have the Razorbacks motivated heading into this bowl game.  It also has them undervalued as they are catching a full touchdown here to Virginia Tech.  This has been a very resilient Arkansas team all season as they are a perfect 4-0 straight up in their last four games following a defeat, not once losing two games in a row all season.

“I think they’ll be very eager,” coach Bret Bielema, whose team will be facing the Hokies for the first time in school history, told reporters. “We’d like to play one this week to get that taste out of your mouth. Our guys will handle it the right way. We’ve got a good group of seniors.”

Bielema certainly knows how to get his guys ready for bowl games.  He has led the Razorbacks to blowout victories each of the past two years in bowl games.  They routed Texas 31-7 as 7-point favorites in 2014, and buried Kansas State 45-23 as 13-point favorites in 2015.  And I love getting Bielema in the underdog role as he is 13-5-1 ATS in his last 19 tries.

Austin Allen might be the best quarterback in the SEC.  He completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,152 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  His 23 touchdowns were the second-most in the conference.  The Razorbacks can still run the football this season behind Rawleigh Williams (1,326 yards, 12 TD, 5.7/carry), who is primed for a big game here.

Virginia Tech comes in overvalued after winning the down Coastal Division and only losing to Clemson by a touchdown in the ACC Championship Game.  However, the Hokies were down 21 late in that game, so it wasn't as close as the final score.  That was a deflating loss to the Hokies and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  They certainly won't be as up for this game as they were to play Clemson.

The Hokies only played the 51st-toughest schedule this season. And we saw what happened when they faced an SEC team earlier this year, losing 24-45 to Tennessee on a neutral field.  The reason the Razorbacks should have a big day on the ground is because the Hokies have been susceptible to the run.  They gave up 239 rushing yards to Tennessee, 227 to Duke, 309 to Georgia Tech and 200 to Notre Dame.  Williams is primed for his 8th 100-yard rushing effort of the season.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest over the last three seasons, winning by 15.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Razorbacks crushed Florida 31-10 as 3-point dogs following their bye earlier this season.  Arkansas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Arkansas in the Belk Bowl.

15* USF/South Carolina Birmingham Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10.5

I question how motivated South Florida will be in this game. They just lost their head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, and none of the current coaches on the staff are likely to stick around as Charlie Strong has been hired. The interim will be T.J. Weist, and David Reaves will serve as offensive coordinator.

The reason the loss of Taggart is so big is because he was also the guy who called the plays for the Bulls. This offense will still have firepower, but I just don’t think that South Florida will be hitting on all cylinders without Taggart calling the shots. It’s a situation I think we can profit from by fading the Bulls as they are being asked to lay double-digits here to an SEC team.

And that’s another key. South Carolina obviously played a much tougher schedule (56th) than South Florida (78th) this season because it plays in the SEC. And the Gamecocks showed very well in Will Muschamp’s first season. They’ll benefit from these extra bowl practices and should be excited to be playing in a bowl for the 12th time in 13 seasons because they didn’t get to go bowling last year. And this is a very young team that will relish the opportunity.

South Carolina was actually able to win three SEC games this year, including a 13-10 win at Vanderbilt as 5-point dogs, and a 24-21 home victory over Tennessee as 15-point dogs. To hold that high-powered Tennessee offense to just 21 points really says a lot about how good this Muschamp defense is. The Vols only managed 297 total yards in defeat.

Muschamp will come up with a game plan to slow down the high-powered attack of USF as well. The Bulls were used to playing some very poor defenses in the AAC, and I would argue that they haven’t faced a defense as good as the one they will be up against in the Birmingham Bowl. The Gamecocks only allow 24.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on the season despite facing a much more difficult schedule. They rank 10th nationally in takeaways with 25, and they have only allowed 28 touchdowns in 49 trips to the red zone by their opponents.

Freshman QB Jake Bentley improved as the season went on once he took over. He completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,030 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He should be in line for his best game of the season against a USF defense that was atrocious all season. The Bulls gave up 31.0 points per game, 482 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season. They have allowed at least 500 yards in four of their last five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last four bowl games, which is the second-longest active winning streak in the country. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the Big Ten season undervalued.  They started the season so ugly that they were going to be undervalued heading into conference action.  And they still are despite turning their season around and playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 14-point win over Iowa State as 6-point home dogs and a 23-point win over Northern Iowa as 2.5-point dogs on a neutral.  Now the Hawkeyes are catching 13.5 points against Purdue, which is simply too much.

The Boilermakers are a quality team and one of the best in the conference, but they have struggled against Iowa.  In fact, the Hawkeyes won both meetings last season, winning 83-71 as 2.5-point home favorites and 70-63 as 9-point road dogs.  Iowa has won four of the last five meetings in this series overall.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

We'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers, who are short-handed right now playing without their two best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and even J.J. Redick is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  The results haven't been good for the Clippers without these guys.

They have now lost three in a row to some very bad teams.  They lost 88-90 at home to the Mavericks, 102-111 on the road to the Lakers and 102-106 at home to the Nuggets.  Now this will really be their first true road game without them because they played the Lakers inside Staples obviously.

The Pelicans are certainly a 'play on' team moving forward.  They have won three of their last four coming in, and it's no coincidence as it has come during the point in which the Pelicans have been at their healthiest all year.  They have their three-headed monster of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans together for the first time all year.  They are clicking on offense, scoring at least 100 points in eight of their last nine contests.

The Clippers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Clippers are 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

We are getting the Detroit Pistons at a cheap price Wednesday because they have lost five of their last six coming in. It was five straight before a 106-90 home win over Cleveland on Monday.  The Pistons are now 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per game.

Milwaukee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.  The Bucks have struggled on the road all season, going 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games away from home.

The Pistons have owned the Bucks lately, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the home team has dominated this series of late as well, going 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.

Detroit is 27-13 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* WVU/Miami Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3

I think the Hurricanes are the happier team to be here. The Mountaineers had a chance to win the Big 12 down the stretch and lost out on a better bowl when they lost to Oklahoma. They proceeded to beat Iowa State and Baylor, but they didn’t play well in either of those games.

They only outgained Iowa State by 52 yards and they were outgained by Baylor by 18 yards in a narrow 24-21 win as 17-point favorites. I think the Mountaineers continue sleep-walking into their bowl game. They already have their 10 wins, so their season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  And their 10-2 record is skewed because they only beat two teams with winning records, BYU and Kansas State, by a combined four points.

Miami clearly wants to be here and will have a pep in its step in its first set of bowl practices under head coach Mark Richt. The Hurricanes won their final four games to close out the season in blowout fashion, going 4-0 ATS in the process. They beat Pitt by 23 at home, Virginia by 20 on the road, NC State by 14 on the road and Duke by 19 at home. They outgained their last four opponents by a combined 537 yards in the process. They clearly come in playing their best football of the season.

Adding to Miami’s motivation is the fact that it hasn’t won a bowl game in a decade, losing six straight with its last win coming in 2006. The Hurricanes will also be looking to build momentum for the future as they look to regain their past glory under Richt, a former Hurricanes quarterback.

Statistically, these teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball, so I think it does come down to motivation. It also helps that Miami will have a home-field edge with this game being played in Orlando. Also, the Hurricanes have a big edge on special teams.

Miami kicker Michael Badgley went 10-of-11 on field goals of 40 or more yards this season. WVU kicker Mike Molina made only 2-of-5 from 40 yards or more. Miami punter Justin Vogel averaged 44.2 yards on 57 punts with 23 punts inside the 20 and only one touchback. WVU punter Billy Kinney averaged 41.4 yards on 51 punts with 14 inside the 20 and five touchbacks.

West Virginia is 6-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games on a neutral field. West Virginia is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 vs. ACC opponents. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Take Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Danny Manning has his players in place in his third season on the job, and the Demon Deacons have rewarded him with a 9-3 start to the season.

The three losses were all understandable as they lost on a neutral to No. 1 Villanova, on the road to Northwestern (by 7) and on the road to Xavier (by 4).  Following that loss to Xavier, I backed them in a blowout 110-76 home victory over LSU as 10-point favorites.  I'll back them again here as 8.5-point road dogs as they are battle-tested and ready to give Florida State a run for its money in the ACC opener.

I think the Seminoles come into this game overvalued due to their 12-1 start this season.  But their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as that of Wake Forest.  They haven't played a true road game yet, and their four neutral court games have come against Temple (lost by 3), Illinois, George Washington and Manhattan.  Heck, they only beat Samford 76-68 as 22-point home favorites last time out, and I was on Samford in that game.

Wake Forest is 15-6 ATS when playing on its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3

The Miami Heat are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder here tonight.  They come in undervalued after losing four of their last five games, but all four losses came by 10 points or fewer so they were competitive in all of them.  And the Heat have quietly gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Heat have had some extra time off here over Christmas.  They haven't played since December 23rd, so they will be giving their best effort after having the past three days off.  The Thunder played on Christmas Day in a home win over Minnesota and don't have that same luxury.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thunder haven't exactly been world beaters on the road this season, going 6-7 ATS while giving up 108.4 points per game away from home.

Oklahoma City is 16-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after having won four of their last five games coming in.  The Heat are 19-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two seasons.

Plays on home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 113-66 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after three or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (102-plus PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Heat Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

This is a very generous price to get the Maryland Terrapins tonight in their Big Ten opener.  The Terrapins are off to a 12-1 start this season, and while they're down a notch from last season, they still have loads of talent.  And they continue to be overlooked by oddsmakers.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are improved at 10-3 on the season.  They have won six straight coming in and are getting too much respect for it.  When they took a step up in class against WVU (lost by 32) and Florida State (lost by 11), they didn't fare well.  And they also lost at home to Winthrop earlier this season.

But the biggest reason I like Maryland here is because Illinois hasn't played a true road game all season.  That's right, it's December 27th and they haven't tasted what a hostile road atmosphere feels like.  I think they'll be in over their heads here against the Terrapins, who beat Illinois 81-55 at home last season.

Illinois is 10-22 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% of their attempts or better over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Terrapins are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Roll with Maryland Tuesday.

20* Temple/Wake Forest Military Bowl No-Brainer on Wake Forest +12

There are a ton of factors working in Wake Forest's favor coming into this bowl game.  I think there's a ton of value in backing them as 12-point underdogs here in the Military Bowl.  In fact, it's probably one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

For starters, the Demon Deacons are going to be extremely excited to be here.  They haven't been to a bowl game since 2011.  When they clinched their bowl berth in a win over Virginia in their ninth game of the season, they didn't exactly play well down the stretch in losing their final three games of the season.  But I think that also has them undervalued as they come in on a 3-game losing streak.

When you look at the teams they faced down the stretch, it's easy to see why they lost three straight.  They lost 12-44 against Louisville, but covered as 34-point dogs.  And that game was way closer than the final score as the Demon Deacons actually led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 34-0 in a fluky final period.

The Demon Deacons also lost 13-35 at home to Clemson, covering as 23.5-point dogs though.  And they lost 14-17 at home to Boston College in the season finale.  But the Eagles had more to play for in that game as they were looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  But the Demon Deacons should have won that game as they outgained the Eagles by 120 yards and held them to just 167 yards of total offense.

Temple does not want to be here.  Their reward for winning the AAC Championship over Navy? How about a repeat trip to Annapolis, Maryland to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team.  That's right, the AAC title game was also played in Annapolis.  This isn't exactly the most exciting city for a college kid to visit, especially for a second time in as many games.

The Owls also lost their head coach in Matt Rhule to Baylor.  We saw how that worked out for Houston already this bowl season after losing Tom Herman.  The interim coach is Ed Foley, who is the special teams and tight ends coach.  The Owls will be moving on to Geoff Collins next season, who was the defensive coordinator at Florida this season.  This is a huge distraction for these players, especially the non-seniors who will be coming back next year.  Rhule was certainly beloved with what he was able to do with this program.

Another reason I like fading Temple here is because the betting public has been all over them, and they've been rewarded.  In fact, the Owls have the best ATS record in the nation at 12-1.  They have covered in 12 straight games since a loss to Army in the opener.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that, knowing that the public is going to continue riding Temple in this game.

Points are going to be at a premium in this game.  That's evident with a total set of 40.5 points.  That favors the underdog as both of these teams have great defenses.  Wake Forest will be able to hang around in this game behind a defense that gives up just 21.8 points and 370 yards per game this season against a much tougher slate than what Temple was up against.

The Demon Deacons have some standouts on defense in junior DL Duke Ejiofor, senior LB Marquel Lee and freshman S Jessie Bates.  Eliofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks this season.  Bates finished second on the team in tackles to Lee.  He led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception returns yards and INT return touchdowns and was named to the Freshman All-American Team.

Wake Forest is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  The Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  With all of the motivational edges in this game favoring the Demon Deacons, this is a contest that they could win outright.  Bet Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets want revenge from a 102-119 loss at Los Angeles just six days ago on December 20th.  They were in a tough spot that day as they were playing the second of a back-to-back.  They proceeded to blow an 8-point lead in the final two minutes against the Hawks their next time out, so it's safe to say they will be highly motivated here.

This time around, it's the Clippers in the tough spot.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days here.  They have lost to the Mavericks 88-90 and the Lakers 102-111 in their last two games, and a big reason for that is all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Chris Paul is expected to miss this game after sitting out against the Lakers.  Blake Griffin remains out, and J.J. Redick just suffered a hamstring injury against the Lakers and is doubtful.  The short-handed, tired Clippers have no chance of hanging with the motivated, well-rested Nuggets who will be playing on two days' rest tonight.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Phoenix Suns just played the Houston Rockets five days ago on December 21st in a 111-125 home loss.  The Rockets shot 18-of-38 from 3-point range and aren't likely to hit at that kind of clip again.  I look for the Suns to be out for revenge in this rematch just five days later.

And the Suns were 6-point home dogs in the first meeting, and now they're 13-point dogs in the rematch in Houston. That is a ton of extra value because the Suns actually tend to play better on the road because they have a very small home-court advantage.  And they are definitely better ATS on the road because they are consistently catching big numbers.

Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days rest.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Suns won 124-115 as 12.5-point dogs and 117-102 as 7.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Houston.  Phoenix is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 trips to Houston dating back further.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NC State/Vanderbilt Independence Bowl No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4.5

I really like the way that Vanderbilt finished the season as it put everything it had into becoming bowl eligible. That was a huge win over Tennessee for Derek Mason in his third season here, and the trip to a bowl game likely saved his job. These players will be ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game after missing out each of the past two years, so you know you’re going to get a big effort from them.

The Commodores certainly saved their best football for last. They won their final two games by beating Ole Miss 38-17 as 10-point home dogs and Tennessee 45-34 as 7.5-point home dogs. Wins over programs of that caliber are no small feat, and Vanderbilt also beat the likes of Western Kentucky and Georgia earlier this season, while also playing Auburn to a 7-point game on the road. They only lost by double-digits once this season, so they were competitive in basically every game.

While Vanderbilt beat four teams with winning records this season, NC State only beat two such teams. One was against Old Dominion, and the other was against a deflated UNC team in the season finale that had no shot at going to the ACC title game after losing the previous week. The Wolfpack simply took advantage of that spot and beat their rivals when they were the more motivated team because they needed the win to get to a bowl.

Let’s talk a little more about how well Vanderbilt played down the stretch. It scored a combined 83 points over the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee, and totaled four touchdown passes in his finale two games.

So not only is Vanderbilt’s offense hitting its stride, but the defense was one of the better units in the stacked SEC. The Commodores only allowed 22.6 points per game this season, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game less than their season averages. This defense should be able to limit NC State’s offense, which averaged a mediocre 25.8 points per game during the regular season and was inconsistent all year.

NC State is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games off a road win over a conference opponent. Derek Mason is 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of Vanderbilt. Dave Doeren is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who allow 58% completions or more as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The SEC supremacy reigns true in this game, too.  Bet Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

15* Miami/Miss State St. Petersburg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -13

I certainly want to give Miami Ohio credit for making a bowl game after the 0-6 start. The Redhawks clearly wanted to make a bowl, and they will be excited to be here. However, I just don’t see any way they can be competitive against Mississippi State, which I would argue is probably the best team that they will have played all season.

Certainly you could argue that Iowa was the best team that they played, but I would say it’s pretty close. And Miami lost to Iowa 21-45. I think we will see a similar margin in this game against a Bulldogs team that really got better as the season progressed.

It’s worth noting that Miami Ohio only beat two bowl teams this season, and that was Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two mediocre teams in the MAC. The talent difference in this game is massive as the Bulldogs will have better athletes on the field at almost every position.

Mississippi State beat two really good teams down the stretch. They won 35-28 over Texas A&M as 10-point underdogs, and then saved their best performance for last in a 55-20 win at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs. The Bulldogs racked up 566 total yards on the Rebels, including 457 rushing.

The Bulldogs really picked it up offensively in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that weren’t against No. 1 Alabama. Freshman sensation Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards, 1,243 on the ground, while accounting for 35 total touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

Fitzgerald rushed for at least 100 yards in five of six second-half contests, including 258 against Ole Miss. He is bigger than basically every linebacker at Miami Ohio and will be tough to tackle.  Fitzgerald has two elite targets on the outside to get the ball to. Senior Fred Ross caught 68 balls for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns, while junior Donald Gray had 39 receptions for 691 yards and five scores.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) – off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-4 (87.9%) ATS since 1992.

Dan Mullen is 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Mississippi State. After playing in the rugged SEC West this season, the Bulldogs will welcome this cupcake opponent and make easy work of them in the St. Petersburg Bowl.   This is going to be a physical mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs, and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Take Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Rematch on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors have had this game circled on their calendars every since they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers.  They are going to want this game more, and I expect one of their best performances of the season because of it.

The difference in the rematch is now they have Kevin Durant, who has made the Warriors that much more dangerous.  They are off to a 27-4 start to the season and have been playing tremendous of late, winning seven straight, including four straight on the road.

I think the Cavaliers come in overvalued due to four straight victories themselves.  However, those four have come against the likes of the Lakers, Nets and Bucks (twice).  The Cavs will be without JR Smith for this one, and they'll certainly miss his shooting against the Warriors here.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 211.5

I think both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be sleep-walking through the first part of this game Sunday that's set for a 12:00 EST tip.  Both offenses will struggle in the first half, which will help keep this total UNDER the posted number of 211.5.

Recent head-to-head history suggests that this number has been inflated.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 209 or fewer in five of those contests.  They have averaged 201.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is roughly 10 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off a home loss over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-4 UNDER in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 25-9 in Celtics last 34 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knicks last 43 games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Hawks are just 5-13 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They just cannot seem to get on track, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 3.5-point road dogs.  They are playing without their center in Dwight Howard on Friday, too.

The Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three wins came at home by double-digits, while the lone loss came on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That was a tough spot and an understandable loss.

But the reason the Nuggets are playing so much better now is because they are as healthy as they've been all season.  There is no team with more depth than this Nuggets squad.  Gary Harris recently returned to the lineup and has provided a huge spark, averaging 12.8 points on 51.8% shooting, including 46.2% from 3-point range in just nine games this year.  The Nuggets have a ridiculous 10 players averaging at least 9.0 points per game, so they don't miss a beat when their bench comes in.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Denver is 17-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Houston Rockets are way overvalued right now due to going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to lay 3.5 points on the road to one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Rockets just lost their starting center in Clint Capela two games ago with a broken fibula.  He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  They really missed him in a loss to the Spurs the other night, but they didn't miss him against the Suns, who are guard-oriented.

Capela's absence will really be in issue against the Grizzlies, who play their 'grit and grind', inside-out style.  Marc Gasol averages 20.1 points per game this season and will have a huge game in the paint.  The same can be said for Zach Randolph.

And the Grizzlies are now as healthy as they've been all season with the recent returns of Mike Conley, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons.  They had all of these guys available against the Pistons on Wednesday, and they won 98-86 as 6-point road dogs despite playing the second of a back-to-back off an OT game.  It was a gutsy effort to say the least, and they will want to put the Rockets in their place tonight.

The Rockets rely more on the 3-pointer than any team in the NBA.  But the Grizzlies defend the 3-pointer better than most.  They allow an average of 9 made 3-pointers on 27 attempts per game at a 33.5% clip.  The Grizzlies only give up 93.9 points per game at home this year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 home games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets are in a great spot here.  They have had two days off since beating the Lakers at home on Tuesday, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they don't play again until Monday, so they will be putting a lot into this game.

The Chicago Bulls are broken right now.  They are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, yet they are getting massive respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.  They rank dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, and they are also dead last in 4th quarter scoring.  They simply cannot get easy buckets.  And nothing comes easy against the Hornets, who rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 102-96 road win by the Hornets last season.  The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Bulls, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  The Bulls haven't even come close to beating them, losing all three games by double-digits.  This is a very cheap price for the home team.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* Auburn/UConn ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut -3.5

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 74-70 upset win over Oklahoma as 4.5-point dogs on Wednesday night.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for UConn, and they this is clearly a letdown spot for them off that big win over the Sooners.

UConn has had four days off to get ready for Auburn after beating North Florida 80-59 on Sunday.  The Huskies will be ready to go, and they are an undervalued team right now because they are just 5-5 on the season.  They got off to a slow start but are playing much better of late, beating Syracuse 52-50 as 8-point dogs and narrowly losing at Ohio State 60-64 as 9.5-point dogs.

Auburn comes in overvalued off that win over Oklahoma that is part of its 9-2 start to the season.  But the Tigers have only played on true road game this season, which was a narrow 70-74 win at UAB.  This will clearly be the toughest atmosphere that the Tigers have played in this season, and I don't expect their young team to handle it very well, especially with only one day to prepare for the Huskies.

UConn is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents.  Take Connecticut Friday.

20* EMU/ODU Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 64

What a great honor it is for these kids from Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion to be playing in a bowl game.  These are two postseason strangers as the Monarchs have never played in a bowl game, while the Eagles will be making their first appearance in 29 years.

Not only do these teams get to play in a bowl game, but they get to go to one of the best bowl destinations there is.  They will be playing in the Bahamas in perfect 82 degree weather on Friday.  The scoring conditions are going to be ideal, which is why I really like the OVER in this game.

Not surprisingly, the Bahamas Bowl is no stranger to high-scoring affairs.  This is the third edition, and the first two went well OVER the total.  Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee combined for 76 points last year, and Western Kentucky and Central Michigan combined for 97 points in the first edition in 2014.  I think we'll see a similar result in this contest that sails well OVER the posted total of 64.

These are familiar foes as EMU and ODU played last season as well.  They scored 72 combined points at Eastern Michigan in a 38-34 victory for the Monarchs.  Both teams exceeded 400 yards of offense.  And these are two offense that certainly can put up points.

Old Dominion is putting up 36.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Monarchs boast electric quarterback David Washington, who is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for at least 25 touchdowns (28) with four or fewer interceptions (4).  Ray Lawry is a tremendous running back as well, rushing for 1,122 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan averages 30.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  This offense has taken off since Brogan Roback took over.  He has thrown for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns this season.  Roback threw for 468 yards and three scores in the Eagles' bowl-clinching win over Ball State earlier this season.

Both of these defenses really struggled on the road this season.  Eastern Michigan gave up 35.2 points, 494 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play away from home.  Old Dominion allowed 33.5 points, 427 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the road as well.

Old Dominion is 10-1 to the OVER after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 19-7 in Eagles last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Monarchs last four vs. a team witha  winning record.  The OVER is 13-5-1 in Monarchs last 19 games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -10

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-3 start this year with their three losses coming to Villanova, Northwestern and Xavier all on the road.  After losing to Xavier just 65-69 as 10-point dogs last time out, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout home victory against LSU tonight.

Wake Forest has played a road-heavy schedule and is certainly battle-tested at this point.  But the Demon Deacons have taken care of business when at home, going 4-0 while outscoring teams by 17.5 points per game on average.  John Collins (17.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg) is an absolute beast, and Bryant Crawford (13.7 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Keyshawn Woods (12.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.0 apg) have taken their games up a notch this year.

LSU is certainly a rebuilding team after all it lost last year.  The Tigers are off to an 8-2 start this season, but seven of their eight wins came at home against suspect competition.  They have played three neutral site games, beating Old Dominion 66-60, but getting blown out by both Wichita State (47-82) and VCU (74-85).  This will be the Tigers' first true road game of the season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

LS is 4-16 ATS off a home win over the last two season.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5

I simply trust the New York Giants more in this spot.  They have a lot more to play for right now.  They will be super motivated to punch their tickets to the playoffs with a win Thursday night.  It would be the first time in five seasons that they would make the postseason, so they couldn't possibly be more motivated right now.

For whatever reason, the Giants just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I think it's because the betting public doesn't flock to poor offensive teams like the Giants.  But defense wins championships as we've seen, and the Giants have won of the best in the business.

The Giants rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.9 points per game on the season.  They have held the Cowboys and Lions, two likely playoff teams, to a total of 13 points the past two weeks.  This defense just keeps getting better as the season has gone on.

The Eagles are a mess right now as they've lost seven of their last eight games overall.  Carson Wentz now has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL ahead of only Jared Goff.  And the defense has been atrocious, giving up at least 26 points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests.  The Giants should get their offense going this week, too.

New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games coming off two consecutive home wins.  Plays on road teams (NY GIANTS) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Giants Thursday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

The New York Knicks are undervalued right now because they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road in the final three games of a 5-game trip, and they bounced back with a 118-111 home victory over Indiana in their first game back in New York on Tuesday.

There is an energy surrounding this Knicks team this year because they are finally relevant.  And the fans have shown up to show their support, which has aided them at home.  In fact, the Knicks are now 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short price for them to be laying.

I think the price is short because while the Knicks are undervalued right now, the Magic are overvalued due to going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been beating up on some bad teams lately with their last three wins coming against the Heat, Nets and Hawks.  They were beaten by the Clippers and Raptors (by 30) in their two losses over their last five contests, both coming at home.

The Knicks are 11-2 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  Orlando is 4-13 ATS in road games versus teams that win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Magic are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

15* Idaho/Colorado State Potato Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 64.5

With how well Colorado State is playing, I’m tempted to take them, but I think the point spread is a bit inflated as a result. Instead, I’ll look to the total as I foresee a shootout between Colorado State and Idaho on the Blue Turf in Boise.

The reason both teams finished so strong this season is their offenses, not their defenses. The Rams averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over their final five games. Quarterback Nick Stevens was the catalyst. He tossed 14 touchdowns against only one interception over the final six games. Standout receiver Michael Gallup caught eight of his 11 touchdowns after Stevens regained the starting job.

Idaho boasts an elite offense of its own. The Vandals scored at least 34 points in five of their final seven games, all of which resulted in victories. Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, who is the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, has passes for 2,803 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. Colorado State gives up 27.8 points, 404 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Rams allowed 34.3 points and 452 yards per game on the road this season. The Vandals give up 29.7 points, 414 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play overall. They allow 34.3 points and 410 yards per game on the road as well.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (COLORADO ST) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 34-8 (81%) over the last 10 seasons.  The final three Colorado State games saw 95, 80 and 94 combined points, which is an average of 89.7 points per game.  We don't need anywhere near that to get the OVER Thursday, but I think we'll get close.

Idaho is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. Idaho is 37-15 OVER in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Vandals last 16 non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Houston Rockets just had their 10-game winning streak snapped with a 100-102 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  They blew a 13-point lead in the final five minutes.  I think off that deflating loss that ended their streak, they won't show up at all tonight in Phoenix.

The Rockets are going to be a 'play against' team in the short-term because they are overvalued due to that winning streak.  Not only that, but they are now without their center Clint Capela due to a broken fibula suffered two games ago.  His injury is getting overlooked.  Capela averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  The Rockets will miss him because he does all the dirty work inside.

This is also a bad spot for the Rockets because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Suns had yesterday off and come in undervalued after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.

The Suns are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Rockets are 15-31 ATS in their last 46 meetings with the Suns.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are undervalued due to losing six of their last nine games overall.  But they turned the corner with a 113-82 home win over Detroit on Monday, and I look for another big effort from them here tonight as only 4-point home favorites over the Washington Wizards.  This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days so they're rested and ready to go.

Conversely, the Wizards come in overvalued due to going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All five victories came at home, but they are 0-2 in their two road games at Miami and Indiana.  The Wizards are now 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in 11 road games on the season.

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bulls have won three of their last four home meetings with the Wizards all by at least 5 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

Chicago is 70-47 ATS in its last 117 home games after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread coming in.  The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -18

North Carolina should be a much bigger favorite against Northern Iowa in this contest in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels will be motivated following a tough 100-103 loss to Kentucky last time out, and I look for them to respond with a blowout home victory.

Following their only other loss of the season on the road to Indiana, UNC bounced back with a 45-point win.  And I think the Tar Heels are undervalued right now because they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  But they were playing without their best player in Joel Berry for most of those games, and he just returned against Kentucky.

Northern Iowa is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes a 22-point loss to Xavier and a 23-point loss to Iowa.  Those two results alone show that UNC should win by 20-plus.  The Panthers also lost at home to George Mason and on the road to Wyoming during this stretch.  Their only two wins came at home against South Dakota State and North Dakota.

UNC is an explosive offensive team that averages 89.0 points per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home and get Northern Iowa out of its comfort zone.  The Panthers like to slow it down to make up for their offensive liabilities.  They only average 66.3 points on 40.4% shooting this season, including 62.5 points and 37.9% shooting on the road.

Northern Iowa is 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams who average 77 or more points per game over the past two seasons.  Northern Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take North Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6

The Detroit Pistons are highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight games by double-digits coming in, which has them undervalued.  Stan Van Gundy has ripped their effort, and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight.

It helps that the Pistons face a Memphis Grizzlies team that is running on fumes right now.  Indeed, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations a team can be in.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they went to overtime against Boston last night.  Ton Allen played 38 minutes, Mike Conley played 36 and Marc Gasol played 37.  I don't see Memphis having much left to give, which is a bad combination when you consider the hunger that the Pistons will be playing with.

Detroit is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  The Pistons are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games as home favorites.  The Grizzlies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Cavs UNDER 209

I was on the UNDER 212.5 in the Cavs/Bucks game last night and it was a very bad beat.  The game ended up tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points, but overtime sent it over the total.  We'll get our money back and then some by taking the UNDER 209 tonight.

I really like taking the UNDER in these second of home-and-home situations.  These teams play again tonight and are obviously very familiar with one another not only because they played last night, but also because this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  Points are harder to come by when teams are familiar with each other.  Not to mention, both teams will be fatigued in this 2nd of a back-to-back, which hurts offense more than defense.

A big reason I liked the UNDER last night was because Kevin Love wasn't playing, and he's questionable to return to the floor tonight.  The Cavs really miss his offense, but they are a better defensive team without him.  And now J.R. Smith likely has a broken thumb that he suffered last night and will miss an extended period of time.  Smith helps the Cavs space the floor and his shooting will be missed, too.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9

Most of the time I'm looking to fade teams on the 2nd of back-to-backs.  But that's not the case for certain teams like the Denver Nuggets, who have a young nucleus that isn't phased by these situations.  And the Nuggets have one of the best benches in the NBA, which makes them less vulnerable than most teams in these spots.

The Nuggets have finally gotten healthy as Gary Harris just returned to the lineup and is lighting it up.  They currently have nobody on the injury report for the first time all season, and as a result they are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight double-digit victories over Portland (by 12), New York (by 13) and Dallas (by 10).

Another reason I'm not worried about backing the Nuggets in this 2nd of a back-to-back is because this will still only be their 4th game in 8 days.  Plus, they have two days off after this game, so they are going to put all their eggs into one basket here and give it their best effort.

I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point favorites here.  They just suffered a big blow when Blake Griffin was injured in a 110-117 loss to Washington on Sunday.  Griffin had to have knee surgery and will miss three-to-six weeks to recover.  The Clippers have been lost without him in the past, and they will be lost without him moving forward.  There's no way they should be laying 9 points without him, especially with how well the Nuggets are playing coming in.

Denver is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games as road underdogs.  Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  This is the Clippers' first game home from a 3-game road trip.  The last time they returned home from an extended road trip they lost to the Pacers 102-111 as 11.5-point favorites on December 4th.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland State +8

I really like this Portland State Pilots team.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season and have a ton of depth.  They have six players scoring at least 10.3 points per game and a 7th that averages 8.9 points.  That helped them overcome the loss of leading scorer Braxton Tucker (16.8 ppg) in their last four games.

They have gone 3-1 without Tucker with their only loss coming by a final of 79-71 at CS-Bakersfield.  They even went on the road and beat San Francisco 82-78 as 9.5-point dogs last time out.  Not to mention, they beat Pepperdine 91-85 as 11.5-point road dogs in the game Tucker was injured.  So I'm not concerned whether or not he plays in this game, though he is questionable and could return, which would only be an added bonus.

The biggest reason to back Portland State tonight is the rest advantage, and the fact that it will be hyped to play rival Portland.  The Vikings have had three days off since beating San Francisco on Friday.  Portland will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here after beating South Dakota on Friday and Oregon State on Sunday.

The win over Oregon State has to feel good beating a Power 5 program, but the Beavers are way down this year and missing their best player.  I think the Pilots could suffer a letdown here following that win.  Plus, they were terrible in their previous two games, only beating South Dakota 85-82 and lowly UTRGV 90-89.  The Pilots should not be laying 8 points based on those results, especially playing their 3rd game in 5 days.

Portland is 12-30 ATS in its last 42 vs. teams who allow 77 or more points per game.  Portland State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a combined score of 155 points or more in three straight games.  The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Pilots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Portland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  Take Portland State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bucks UNDER 212.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to want revenge from a 101-118 loss at Milwaukee on November 29th in their first meeting this season.  They were going through their worst stretch of the season during that loss, but have since won six of their last seven games coming in.

The biggest reason for their improvement has been their emphasis on defense.  They have allowed 94 or fewer points in four of their last six games coming in.  And after giving up 118 to Milwaukee in that loss, they will be motivated to shut down the Bucks in the rematch.

The Bucks have been playing stingy defense of their own, allowing just 83.0 points per game in their last two contests.  And their job just got a whole lot easier with Kevin Love now doubtful to play tonight with a knee injury.  Love really makes the Cavs' offense go, and without him they are just a shell of themselves.  But the Cavs are actually a better defensive team without Love in there as he is clearly a liability on that end.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-13 (75.5%) over the past five years.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Bucks last 52 games following a straight up win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost three straight games to end their recent five-game road trip.  They'll be looking to get back on the winning track here.  They have been a very resilient team this year as this is the first time that they've lost more than two in a row.

And the main reason they have lost three in a row is because star PG Derrick Rose has missed the past three games due to injury.  Rose is expected to return to the lineup as he practiced on Monday and was symptom-free of his nagging back injuries.  Rose is averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 assists this season while proving to be a huge addition to this roster.

The biggest reason I like the Knicks is because they have a huge rest advantage here.  They last played on Saturday, giving them two days off in between games to get ready for the Pacers tonight.  Meanwhile, Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they are short-handed right now, missing both Monte Ellis and Rodney Stuckey, who are instant offense for them.  They have had to play their weak bench bigger minutes as guys like Al Jefferson, Glenn Robinson and Aaron Brooks saw significant time last night, especially Robinson and his five points in 30 minutes.

The Knicks are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season, while the Pacers are 4-10 SU & 4-10 ATS on the road.  New York is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.  The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 110 points or more in their previous game.  New York is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a dog this season. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its lat five games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Memphis/WKU Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

I always look to fade bowl teams with head coaching changes depending on the situation.  We saw it hurt Houston already this bowl season in a 10-34 loss to San Diego State after Tom Herman left for Texas.  And now I think we're going to see the same effect here in the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers just lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who led them to two straight C-USA Championships, to Purdue.  Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will take over in the interim for the bowl game.  WKU already hired former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Sanford to replace Brohm next season, so Holt is pretty much a lame-duck coach here in what will likely be his final game at WKU.

The reason the loss of Brohm really hurts is because he called the plays on offense.  The Hilltoppers averaged an FBS-best 44.6 points per game in three seasons under Brohm.  We saw Houston's offense struggle without Herman, and I certainly think the Hilltoppers won't be as explosive either without Brohm calling the shots.

WKU has already had a successful season with a C-USA title, so it isn't all that excited to be playing in this bowl game anyways.  The same cannot be said for Memphis, which is looking forward to this opportunity to play in a bowl game in the first season under head coach Mike Norvell.  He did a tremendous job in filling in for Justin Fuente in leading the Tigers to an 8-4 season.

Memphis won three of its final four games to improve its bowl position, including an impressive 48-44 win over Houston in the regular-season finale.  The Tigers lost Paxton Lynch to the NFL, but they didn't miss a beat on offense thanks to the play of QB Riley Ferguson.  He led the Tigers to an average of 39.5 points per game this season while throwing for 3,326 yards, including 409 yards and four touchdowns without an interception against a very good Houston defense in the finale.

The Tigers certainly played the tougher schedule this season as the AAC was the much stronger conference this season.  Their four losses came to Ole Miss, Navy, Tulsa and South Florida.  They beat Temple earlier this season, which won the AAC title.  Western Kentucky only beat three teams that finished with winning records this season in Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and LA Tech.  And two of those games went right down to the wire.

Memphis comes in playing its best football of the season, getting better under Norvell as the season has progressed.  It went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final three games, beating SMU 51-7 on the road, Cincinnati 34-7 on the road and Houston 48-44 at home.  The only loss came to South Florida by a final of 42-49, and South Florida was one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are scoring 43.8 points per game during this stretch and they have the firepower to match the Hilltoppers score for score, especially now that Brohm isn't calling the plays.

The Tigers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference-USA opponents.  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl.

20* Panthers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5

This line seems like a classic overreaction from the betting public. They see a team like Washington in the hunt for a playoff spot and back them because of the ‘must-win’ factor. They see the Carolina Panthers at 5-8, and though they’re not eliminated from the playoffs, they expect them not to show up.

I think this false public perception has provided some line value on the Panthers here. The Redskins have been bet up from -4 to -6.5 already this week and it could get to 7. The Panthers clearly have not quit as they came back and beat the Chargers 28-16 at home last week. And almost every player shows up for Monday Night Football, so I’m not worried about any motivation concerns here.

“There is no room for error and we have to rely on certain other things happening,” head coach Ron Rivera said. “At the end of the day, our concern is our next game. We play the Redskins on Monday night and I believe our guys are going to prep and get ready. … Our intention is to win them all.”

The Redskins have only been favored by more than a field goal once all season. That came as 7.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game they easily could have lost as they were trailing in the 4th quarter. If they were only 7.5-point favorites over the Browns, they certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over the Panthers. And they have only won two games this season by more than a touchdown.

I think Carolina will be able to keep pace with Washington here as Cam Newton is healthy and the offense should move the football and score points. The Redskins give up 24.4 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. The back door will always be open for the Panthers against this suspect defense.

Carolina could get the return of Luke Kuechly this week as he came back to practice and has been cleared to play. That would be a nice boost for a defense that is coming off one of its best performances of the season last week. The Panthers held a very good San Diego offense to just 16 points and 278 yards while forcing five turnovers.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Panthers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. They won 44-16 at home last season as 7-point favorites over the Redskins. They held Washington to just 186 total yards in the win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Washington is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 Monday night home games. The Redskins are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Washington Wizards are in a very tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after topping the Clippers 117-110 at home last night as 5.5-point underdogs.  After that huge win over the Clippers, it's only fitting that they would have a letdown here.

Meanwhile, the Pacers had yesterday off after a nice 105-90 road win at Detroit on Saturday.  The Pacers have been handling their business at home this season, going 10-4 SU & 8-6 ATS on their home floor.  I think they are worth the price as only 6-point favorites here.

The Washington Wizards have also been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Wizards are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in road games this season.  The Pacers have won four of their last five meetings against the Wizards.

The Wizards are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +22.5

The Samford Bulldogs are a quality team capable of giving Florida State a run for its money today.  Samford is 7-3 this season, which includes a solid 4-2 record in true road games.  The Bulldogs' only two road losses this season came at New Mexico State by 10 and at Cincinnati by 15 as 19-point dogs.

Florida State comes in overvalued due to its 11-1 record this season.  The Seminoles are starting to lay the kinds of big numbers that are going to be tough for them to cover moving forward.  They just beat a bad Manhattan team by 16 as 24.5-point favorites on Saturday.

Now the Seminoles have had only one day to prepare for Samford after playing on Saturday.  The Bulldogs have had two days off in between games after a nice 82-79 win at South Alabama as 4-point dogs on Friday.  And I think the Seminoles could be looking ahead here as their next game will be their ACC opener against Wake Forest.

Samford is 10-1 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the past two seasons.  Florida State is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Samford is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Take Samford Monday.

15* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +7

I’ve been fading the Cowboys with a ton of success here down the stretch. I cashed in the Redskins +7 against them three weeks ago, and the Giants +4 against them last week. The Cowboys have consistently been overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, and they continue to be overvalued here as 7-point home favorites.

The Bucs continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite playing as well as almost anyone here down the stretch. The Bucs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have gone on the road and beaten both the Chiefs and Chargers as underdogs. They also beat the Bears and Seahawks as home underdogs before taking care of business in the favorite role against the Saints last week.

No team has played better defensively than the Bucs over the past five weeks. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 points per game since Week 10. The six total touchdowns scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. They have also held opponents to an average of 281.0 yards per game while forcing 14 turnovers in this stretch.

I know the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been spectacular, but the biggest key for them is that they have a healthy Doug Martin back running the football. Just the threat of a running game has made the Bucs tough to stop. They are committing to the run, too, rushing at least 30 times in every game during this five-game streak. They will lean on Martin again to try and take some of the pressure off of Winston.

However, I think Winston is going to have a huge game against this overrated Cowboys defense. Dallas benefits from its offense holding onto the ball and controlling time of possession. But make no mistake, this Dallas defense is vulnerable. The Cowboys allow 69.7% completions and 268 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in the NFL in allowing 5.7 yards per play.

Jason Garrett is 11-25 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won five or six of the last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams who allow at least 5.65 yards per play over the last three years. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Take the Bucs Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northeastern +12.5

The Michigan State Spartans are in a world of hurt right now.  They are just 7-4 on the season and clearly one of the worst teams that Tom Izzo has had in a long time.  The news went from bad to worse when they lost their best player Miles Bridges (16.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) to an ankle injury.

The Spartans have played their last three games without Bridgers, and it's been ugly.  All three games came at home against Oral Roberts (80-76) as 21.5-point favorites, Youngstown State (77-57) as 18.5-point favorites and Tennessee Tech (71-63) as 19-point favorites.

Northeastern is better than all three of those teams.  And the Huskies just have a knack for playing in close games.  In fact, all 10 of their games this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.  They showed what they were capable of by stunning UConn 64-61 as 13-point road dogs.

The Huskies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Northeastern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  This is way too big of a number for the Spartans to be laying in their current state.  Roll with Northeastern Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4

The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they've been all season as everyone on the roster is a full go now.  They have battled injuries through the first quarter of the season, and that's why they are only 14-12.  But this is one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference when healthy, and they're going to be showing value going forward.

The Celtics also come into this game against the Miami Heat hungry for victories.  They lost three straight before a solid 96-88 home win over Charlotte as 6-point favorites on Friday.  That followed a tough 3-game skid with a 7-point loss to Toronto, a 3-point road loss at OKC and a 7-point road loss at San Antonio.  Those are three of the best teams in the NBA, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas didn't play in any of them.  He returned against the Hornets last game and promptly scored 26 points to lead the way.

The Miami Heat have a ton of injury concerns of their own that are hampering them.  They are just 9-18 on the season, including 4-9 at home.  They remain without Dion Waiters and Chris Bosh, and both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson are questionable for this game.  The Heat are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to their 4-0 ATS run coming in.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Heat since the start of last season.  They have won all four meetings by at least 8 points and by an average of 10.0 points per game.  The Heat just don't have an answer for them, especially short-handed now and against a fully healthy Boston outfit.

Boston is 14-3 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 36-17 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Pats/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

At 8-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It's safe to say that they need this win more than the Patriots, who are basically guaranteed of a first-round bye.  I think we'll get a big effort from the Broncos here.

I still think the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL.  So the Patriots being 3-point road favorites here indicates that they would be 9-point favorites in New England.  I would take the Broncos in a heartbeat at that price.  And the Ravens were only 6.5-point dogs in New England last week.  The Broncos are better than the Ravens, and it's not all that close.

Now the Patriots are on a short week here after playing a big game against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  Not only are they on a short week, but now they will have to play in the altitude in Denver.  And it's safe to say that playing in Denver hasn't been too kind to the Patriots in the past.

Indeed, the Broncos are 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against New England.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Patriots.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Broncos won both meetings at home with the Patriots last year as underdogs.  Tom Brady has been terrible in Denver.

I also believe the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, so Brady is going to struggle again, especially with his lack of weapons right now in the passing game.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 310.7 yards per game and 1st in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.6 yards per play.  They are also 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game.

Both CB Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware recently returned to the lineup, and this defense has been dominant the last few weeks.  The Broncos gave up only 273 yards and 3.6 yards per play to the Chiefs, 233 yards and 4.1 yards per play to the Jaguar sand 253 yards and 3.9 yards per play to the Titans.

Paxton Lynch has been forced into action three times this season, including two starts, because of the injuries to Trevor Siemian.  Lynch is only averaging 6.0 yards per attempt while Siemian is at 7.3 per attempt.  Siemian is playing better than Payton Manning did last year.  He just returned against the Titans from injury last week, and he played great in the second half and nearly led them to a comeback victory.  Now Siemian will be a week healthier and should be closer to full strength.

New England is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I have been on the Steelers three of the last four weeks and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They came through for me against the Browns, Giants and Bills.  Their 27-20 win over the Bills last week was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, too.  I'm going to keep riding them this week.

The Steelers won by a touchdown over the Bills last week despite Ben Roethlisberger having an uncharacteristic off game with three interceptions.  Le'Veon Bell actually finished with more yards from scrimmage than Buffalo by himself.

The Steelers outgained the Bills by 185 yards.  They have outgained each of their last seven opponents and nine of their last 10 overall.  That is the sign of a dominant team.  They are in playoff mode right now and hitting on all cylinders.  Their defense has been great, giving up just 12.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Pittsburgh absolutely hates Cincinnati.  The Bengals have a knack for hurting their best players, which is the biggest reason for their hatred.  And they have certainly taken out their frustration on the Bengals in recent history.  They have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Bengals.

I think the fact that the Bengals have won their last two games and haven't quit despite basically being eliminated from the playoffs has actually provided us some value here.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But those two wins came against the Browns and Eagles, who both appear to have quit themselves.

Cincinnati has now played four straight terrible offensive teams in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against one of the top offenses in the NFL, and I don't think the Bengals have the firepower to keep up with all their injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers are now 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 trips to Cincinnati.  Playing on the road in this series clearly hasn't been an issue for the Steelers.  They are consistently undervalued in Cincinnati, and I believe that to be the case again here with them listed as only 3-point favorites.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami Ohio +13.5

UCF is missing leading scorer and assist man B.J. Taylor (16.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) due to a thumb injury.  Taylor has missed the past three games, and the results have been terrible for the Knights without their best player.

After beating lowly MD-East Shore 76-58 in their first game without him, the Knights lost at home 49-58 to Pennsylvania as 10-point favorites.  Then they lost on the road at George Washington 59-74 on Thursday as 2-point underdogs.  Now they've had just two days to get ready for Miami Ohio.

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are nothing special at just 5-5 this season, but they are good enough to stay within 13.5 points of a UCF team missing their best player in Taylor.  And the Redhawks have had ample time to prepare for the Knights.  They haven't played since a 71-68 win over IUPUI on December 10th, getting a full seven days off to get ready for this game.

Miami Ohio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  The Redhawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Take Miami Ohio Sunday.

20* Saturday Bowl Season Opener on Southern Miss -4.5

Southern Miss underachieved as much as almost anyone in the country this season. The Golden Eagles won 9 games and went to the Conference USA Championship Game last season.  They brought back 13 starters from that squad, including their best player in QB Nick Mullens. So to finish just 6-6 was a huge disappointment.

That being said, I like the way this team rallied in their season finale as they clearly wanted to make a bowl game. They upset Louisiana Tech 39-24 as 15.5-point home underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points and finally living up to their potential. A big reason for their success in that game was that Mullens returned from a two-game absence from a concussion to account for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).

There’s no question that the Golden Eagles are way better than their 6-6 record would indicate when you look at the statistics. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents this season. They are outgaining foes 472-331 on the season, or by 141 yards per game. That is the sign of a dominant team, not one with a 6-6 record.

The reason for the record is that they have committed a whopping 32 turnovers this season while forcing only 14, a -18 differential. But their two worst turnover games came without Mullens as they committed four turnovers against North Texas and five against Old Dominion. Having Mullens back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,926 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season.

When you look at Lafayette’s numbers, they are the definition of an average 6-6 team. The Rajin’ Cajuns average just 366 yards per game on offense and give up 368 yards per game on defense. Their offense has been terrible all season as they average just 23.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. I think Southern Miss, which averages 33.2 points per game and 6.0 per play, has a massive edge on that side of the ball. And defensively, they’re pretty even.

I question the Rajin’ Cajuns’ motivation here because they will be making their 5th appearance in the last 6 years in the New Orleans Bowl. This venue probably has to be getting old, even though they have won all four trips with victories over San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada. I think Southern Miss is far and away the best team that they will have played in this particular bowl.

Teams like Southern Miss who didn't do well against the spread during the regular season have actually been great bets in the postseason.  Teams who covered less than 33% of their spreads coming into bowl season are 43-21 ATS over their last 64 tries.  Bowl favorites in this situation are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 tries.  This line opened at -2 and has been bet up to -4.5 as of this writing.  I believe this line has moved in this direction for good reason.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had three days off since one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 99-94 road win at Chicago as 5.5-point dogs.  They have had ample time to rest up and prepare to face the Houston Rockets, and they'll be motivated to end Houston's 9-game winning streak, while also putting an end to a 7-game skid in this series with the Rockets.

The Rockets come in overvalued due to this 9-game winning streak, and they are at a severe disadvantage in terms of rest and preparation.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you'll find in the NBA.

The Rockets just broke the NBA record by making 24 3-pointers last night against the Pelicans on a NBA-record 61 attempts.  It's only natural for them to have a letdown off that feat, and I expect their streak to come to an end tonight.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Saturday games.  The Rockets are 14-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves have covered their last two games and are going to be a great bet going forward as they continue buying in to what Tom Thibodeau is preaching after a slow start to the season.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Butler/Indiana In-State Rivalry Play on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers should make easy work of the Butler Bulldogs in the Crossroads Classic at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday.  I like this Butler team and backed them in their most recent game, a 10-point home win over Cincinnati.  But I think it's time to fade them here as they simply do not have the talent to match Indiana.

The Hoosiers are off to an 8-1 start this season and blitzing the competition in the process, scoring 87.6 points per game and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They got their wake-up call in a bad loss at IUPU-Fort Wayne, but have been rolling since.  They beat North Carolina by 9 at home.  Their other four games since have resulted in wins by 23 points or more.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - an explosive offensive team (scoring at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Hoosiers are 22-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Indaina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* Houston/SDSU Las Vegas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5

Not all coaching changes are created equal.  I'm not concerned at all about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas.  That's because their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, is their head coach of the future.  Applewhite will call the plays and retain his defensive coordinator for this game before he moves on with Herman to Texas.

From a fundamental standpoint, Houston is clearly the better team here.  They have better talent across the board.  That talent really showed itself in wins over both Oklahoma and Louisville this season.  Not only did they win those games, they dominated them by winning by double-digits.

I think the fact that Houston lost to Memphis 44-48 in the season finale is providing us some value here.  But that was clearly a flat spot the Cougars after beating Louisville the week before.  That loss, plus the Herman news, has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.

Greg Ward Jr. will be the best player on the field in this game.  He didn't fold against Memphis in the season finale and nearly led them to a comeback win.  Ward Jr. is a senior and is going to want to go out a winner.  It's basically like having an extra coach on the field with him under center.

San Diego State has a decent defense, but it hasn't seen a quarterback who can run like Ward.  And the only spread offense the Aztecs have faced that is even close to the Cougars is Cal.  Well, SDSU gave up 40 points and over 600 yards to that Cal offense.  But Cal doesn't have a guy under center who is a dual threat like Ward Jr.

Houston was only outgained twice all season by its opponents.  The Cougars outgained their foes by 134 yards per game on average.  San Diego State was outgained five times this year.  The Aztecs were outgained in each of the last three games by Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State.

The biggest reason I like Houston is the matchup.  San Diego State is one of the worst passing teams in the country as they average just 146 rushing yards per game.  They rely heavily on their running game, and RB Donnell Pumphrey only needs 108 yards to become the FBS' all-time leading rusher.  I think achieving that feat is just as important to the Aztecs as winning the game.  If they get behind like I expect, they don't have the passing game to catch up, and they'll probably still be running it.

Houston is going to take it personal and try and stop Pumphrey from getting the record.  The Cougars certainly have the goods to do it, too.  The strength of the Houston defense is stopping the run.  They rank 3rd in the country in run defense, giving up just 98 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry.  This couldn't be a better matchup for them.

San Diego State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last two years.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  SDSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Houston Saturday.

15* Ohio State/UCLA CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UCLA -8.5

The UCLA Bruins are the best team in college basketball in my opinion.  I've backed them a handful of times with success already this season, and they continue to be undervalued by oddsmakers here as only 8.5-point favorites in this showdown with Ohio State in the CBS Sorts Classic in Las Vegas.

The Bruins are not only 11-0 straight up, but they are 9-2 ATS having covered in eight straight games coming in.  It's not like they are beating up on a soft schedule, either.  They won 97-92 as 10.5-point road dogs at Kentucky in a game that really showed they are the best team in the land.  They have also won and covered against the likes of Nebraska, Texas A&M and Michigan.  They are putting up 97.9 points per game and outscoring opponents by 23.3 points per game on the season.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are off to a nice 8-2 start, but they don't have one win of significance.  They are just 3-5 ATS on the season and have had some really concerning efforts.  They lost at home to Florida Atlantic 77-79 as 20-point favorites less than two weeks ago.  They only beat Farleigh Dickinson by 8 at home in a game that had no line as they were expected to blow them out.  They also only beat NC Central 69-63 as 24-point home favorites.  Based on those results, they aren't going to be able to stay within single-digits of a team the caliber of UCLA.

The Buckeyes are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.  The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  UCLA is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Bruins are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 204

This is the classic home-and-home game where the Bucks and Bulls played last night in Milwaukee, and now they're playing tonight in Chicago.  I always look to back the UNDER in these situations for a number of reasons.

First, these teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing last night.  Points are usually harder to come back because of it.  Second, both teams are a little fatigued playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and that usually hurts the offense more than the defense.

Milwaukee beat Chicago 108-97 last night for 205 combined points.  With this total set at 204, they basically just need one less basket to get the UNDER.  And the previous two meetings between these teams stayed UNDER this total with combined scores of 200 and 190 points in their final two meetings last season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings as well.

Chicago is 29-16 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 12-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 23-8 in Bucks last 31 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +7

The Miami Heat are about as healthy as they've been all season.  Only Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters are out, while Tyler Johnson is questionable to play tonight.  They had as many as seven guys on the injury report recently, and now they have only three.

As they've gotten healthier, the Heat has started to play up to their potential here of late.  They have won two in a row while covering the spread in three straight.  They only lost 100-105 in Chicago as 9.5-point dogs, beat Washington 112-101 as 1-point home dogs and beat Indiana 95-89 as 1-point home dogs.

The Clippers continue to be overvalued following their torrid start to the season.  They have gone just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They only won 113-108 in Orlando as 8.5-point favorites two nights ago, and now this price seems steep again to me as 7-point road chalk over the Heat.

Los Angeles is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards have started to show some life here recently.  John Wall called them out for their lack of effort in a home loss to the Magic.  Since then, they've won three out of four with all three victories coming at home.  I look for them to win a 4th straight home game tonight here against the Detroit Pistons.

The Wizards are now 8-6 at home this season, while the Pistons are just 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS on the road.  This Detroit team has been dominant at home, but it has one of the worst home/away splits in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Detroit.  The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Wizards are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Pistons, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic +21

It's mind-boggling that Florida Atlantic is catching 21 points tonight against Miami.  This is a much-improved team from last year that returned four starters.  They have gone 3-5 against a very difficult schedule with all five losses coming by 9 points or less, including three by 4 points or fewer.

What really stood out to me was a couple of their wins.  Florida Atlantic beat South Florida 78-62 as 4.5-point home favorites.  But that wasn't their most impressive victory.  They went on the road and beat Ohio State 79-77 as 20-point dogs last time out.  Normally this would be a letdown spot, but it's not in this case because they've had 9 days off in between games after beating the Buckeyes on December 6th.

Miami is clearly down a couple notches from last year with all that it lost in the offseason.  That showed in losses to Iowa State (by 17) and Florida (by 9).  It has also shown up with their 2-5 ATS record in lined games this season.  They only beat Pennsylvania by 12 as 20-point favorites, Rutgers by 12 as 14.5-point favorites and Wofford by 17 as 19-point favorites.  I don't expect them to cover this massive number, either.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a home win by 30 points or more.  Florida Atlantic is 9-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  The Owls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1

The Denver Nuggets are primed for a big performance tonight at home.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now as they currently have nobody on the injury report expected to miss this game.  Gary Harris is back in the lineup, and the Nuggets are going to be a good bet in the near future.

I think this is a good spot to back them because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  They will also be motivated to avenge two close losses to Portland already this season with a 113-115 home loss on October 29th and a 105-112 road loss on November 13th.

Portland will be playing its 6th game in 9 days here, and playing in the altitude in Denver won't help matters.  The Blazers are just 5-10 on the road this season.  Portland is 3-8 ATS in its last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a win.  Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +15.5

It's time to buy low on the Los Angeles Rams.  They are more undervalued right now than they have been at any point this season, and that's certainly reflected in this 16-point spread.  They are coming off three straight losses by 16 points or more against non-division opponents.

I think the Rams will play with some fire this week as they step back within the division to face the Seahawks.  I also like the fact that they fired head coach Jeff Fisher, because that first game with an interim coach usually provides a spark for the players.  In this case it will be special teams coach John Fassel serving as the interim head coach.

The Rams always play the Seahawks tough.  In fact, they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  All four wins were outright upsets as they were dogs of 3.5, 5.5, 6.5 and 11.5 points.  The lone loss was a 14-point setback in Seattle, and I think the Seahawks are going to have a very hard time putting them away by more than two touchdowns here.

We got to see first-hand just how poor the Seattle secondary would be in their first game without Earl Thomas last week.  They allowed the highest passer rating of the Pete Carroll era in a 10-38 loss to the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.

Los Angeles still boasts an elite defense that has had the Seahawks' number.  The Rams have allowed just 20 points and a combined 126 rushing yards in their last two meetings with the Seahawks.  This defensive line will stop the run again, and I'm not so sure Russell Wilson can beat the secondary after throwing five interceptions against the Packers last week.

Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -2

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight coming in to fall one game below .500 on the season.  Look for them to get back on track at home here, where they are 8-6 on the season.

The Bucks will be primed for a big performance because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  The Bulls are just 6-7 in road games this year and are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Bucks Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations for any team in the NBA.

The New Orleans Pelicans had yesterday off after nearly upsetting the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.  They only lost that game 109-113 as 11-point home underdogs.  I look for them to be a good bet going forward, especially now that they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.

The Pacers are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game and giving up a whopping 113.6 points per game away from home.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS after a game where the opponent had 65 or more rebounds over the past three seasons.  The Pacers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs on National TV.  Points will be very hard to come by in this matchup, especially with the Celtics playing without their best player in Isaiah Thomas.

Not having Thomas does a couple things for the Celtics.  While it makes them way worse off offensively, it's actually an upgrade for them defensively.  It means that Marcus Smart plays more minutes, and he may be the best defender that they have.  Not to mention Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are already plus defenders.

The last two games without Thomas have been very low-scoring as the Celtics lost 94-101 to the Raptors for 195 combined points and they lost 96-99 to the Thunder for 195 combined points.  Both the Thunder and Raptors are elite offensive teams as well.

Boston is playing at a much slower tempo this year as it ranks 19th in pace.  San Antonio is playing at a snail's pace, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace.  But the Spurs will get after you defensively as they rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spurs last seven games overall.  We've seen 196 or fewer combined points in five of those contests.

Boston is 17-4 UNDER off a road loss by 6 points or less over the past three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Spurs last 26 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Jazz UNDER 200

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They only managed 99 points against Houston, 99 against Boston and then 95 against Portland last night in their last three games, respectively.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and they could be without Victor Oladipo again, who sat out last night.

Points are going to be even harder to come by tonight against a Utah team that locks you down defensively.  The Jazz rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  And the Jazz prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.

The Jazz will control the tempo playing at home here.  And the Jazz remain without starting point guard George Hill, who is second on the team in scoring.  Not having him has hampered their offense.  Nothing will come easy for the Jazz either as the Thunder rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City have seen 200 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  And all of those were with Kevin Durant playing for the Thunder.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder's last five games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 to the UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -1.5

Middle Tennessee went 25-10 last season and shocked No. 2 Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.  The Blue Raiders brought back three starters from that team, including their top two scorers in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw.

The Blue Raiders have picked up right where they left off last year, opening 9-1 this season.  They have beaten Ole Miss 77-62 as 6-point road dogs and Vanderbilt 71-48 as 2-point home favorites.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Belmont is just 4-3 this season with its four wins coming against Western Kentucky, Lipscomb (by 2 twice) and Pepperdine.  The Bruins have a common opponent with Middle Tennessee in Vanderbilt.  Well, the Bruins lost to Vanderbilt 66-80 as 5-point dogs.  That result really shows the difference between these two teams after the Blue Raiders beat the Commodores by 23.

Middle Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 or less over the last two seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 1 to 6.5 points.  The Bruins are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a dog of 1 to 6.5 points.  Belmont is 0-6 ATS in its last six Wednesday games.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as you will find them all season right now.  That's because they are off to a 6-18 start to the season.  But this team is much better than their record as they have consistently blown leads throughout the season.

I think the Timberwolves players are really going to want to win this game for head coach Tom Thibodeau, who will be coaching against his former team in the Chicago Bulls for the first time.  Things didn't exactly end well for him in Chicago, and he wants to stick it to the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls just have a tendency of playing up and down to their competition.  They have beaten Cleveland and San Antonio recently, but they also have a home loss to the Lakers and a 25-point loss to the Mavs in recent weeks.  I don't think we will get an 'A' effort here from the Bulls, either.

The Timberwolves swept the season series with the Bulls last year, winning 112-105 as 3.5-point home favorites and 102-93 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Chicago is 16-29 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 12-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40% over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Temple/Villanova FS1 No-Brainer on Temple +16.5

Villanova is overvalued right now due to winning the national championship last season and opening this season 10-0.  The Wildcats are simply laying too many points in this rivalry game with Temple, and we'll take advantage.

I know the Wildcats have dominated this series with the Owls, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, but that has only added to the value.  This isn't the same dominant Villanova team we saw last year because they lack an inside presence and their depth isn't nearly as strong as it was a year ago.

Temple has really impressed me during its 7-3 start this season.  The three losses came by a combined 11 points, and the Owls have beaten the likes of Florida State as 10-point dogs and West Virginia as 12.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the better teams in the country, and those results show that the Owls can play with Villanova.

This is also a potential letdown spot for Villanova after beating Notre Dame 74-66 on Saturday on a neutral court.  The Wildcats erased an early double-digit deficit and actually wound up covering as 5-point favorites, which also has them overvalued here.

Temple is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Villanova is 0-7 ATS in home games off two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   These last four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Tuesday.

25* Ravens/Pats MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore +7

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Ravens the amount of respect they deserve.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL since the beginning of the season.  They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 406 yards.

In fact, the Ravens now rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 51.6 yards per game on the season.  The key has been a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 yards/game) and 1st against the run (73.8 yards/game).  This has a chance to be the best run defense in NFL history.

That's important because the Ravens can make the Patriots a one-dimensional passing team.  The Patriots aren't nearly as effective when they can't run the ball.  That's because Tom Brady is playing with limited weapons right now with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out.

The Patriots have been able to get by the past two weeks without Gronk because they have been up against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They beat the Jets 22-17 on the road and the Rams 26-10 at home.  The Ravens are starting to click offensively, especially after Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 win against the Dolphins last week.

Getting a full touchdown here with the Ravens is a tremendous value.  That's especially the case when you consider 24 of the last 29 Baltimore games have been decided by 8 points or less.  It's also the case when you consider how tough Baltimore has played New England in recent years.  Indeed, the Patriots have only beaten the Ravens one time by more than 6 points in their last nine meetings.

The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after leading their previous game by 21 points or more at halftime.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.  The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to New England.

Plays on underdogs 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the second half of the season are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +14

The Houston Rockets are as overvalued as they are going to be all season right now.  That's because they have won six straight coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  And they are 17-7 ATS on the season, so the betting public has made a killing off of them.

But I question how much the Rockets will actually be motivated to beat the Brooklyn Nets, let alone beat them by 15-plus points, which is what it would take to cover this number.  And the Rockets haven't shown up for the Nets in recent meetings.  Brooklyn is 3-0 ATS in the last three, winning outright 110-105 as 5-point home dogs, winning outright 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs, and only losing 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.

Conversely, the Nets come in undervalued after losing four of their last five, including a 29-point blowout at San Antonio last time out.  But they were competitive in their previous three games, losing by just 9 and 5 points, while also beating Denver by 5 points.

And now the Nets are as healthy as they've been all season with Jeremy Lin back in the lineup.  They don't have any players expected to miss this game.  And they'll be rested and ready to go as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +4

The Cowboys are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. That has shown up the last two weeks as they have failed to cover in a 5-point win over Washington as 7-point home favorites, and a 2-point win at Minnesota as 3-point favorites. And the Cowboys were outgained by 152 yards by the Redskins and by 54 yards by the Vikings.

Let’s just compare the line from the first game between these teams to see how overvalued the Cowboys really are. The Giants were 1-point road favorites in Week 1. By that theory, they should be roughly 7-point home favorites in the rematch when you factor in 3 points for home-field advantage. Instead, they are 4-point dogs, which is essentially provides us with 11 points of value. I’m not saying they should be 7-point favorites, but they certainly shouldn’t be underdogs after being favored at Dallas in the opener.

The Giants boast a terrific passing game that can take advantage of this awful Dallas pass defense, which is allowing 70.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys have been terrible on defense all season, but that has been masked by their offense, which has been able to control the time of possession. That isn’t likely to happen in this game, and that defense will get exposed.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 27th in yards per play (5.8), 29th in sack percentage (4.6%), 32nd in interception rate (0.8%) and 28th in yards per drive (36.4) allowed. That’s not the sign of a good defense, and Eli Manning, Odell Bechkam, Sterling Shephard and company should be able to make plenty of plays against Dallas to lead the Giants to victory.

The reason the Cowboys won’t be able to control the time of possession is because the Giants are so good against the run. Indeed, the Giants are 5th in the NFL in run defense, giving up just 91.4 rushing yards per game. They are also tied for 3rd in allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. They will be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack here. Dallas only gained 101 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting, which is just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Giants are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by two points to the Washington Redskins. New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas.  Take the Giants Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +11

The Golden State Warriors are in about as tough a spot as they've been all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days.  They started showing signs of wearing down last night in an 89-110 loss at Memphis as 13-point favorites, and they certainly won't be in any better shape tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as they're going to be all season.  That's because they have gone just 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I'm willing to overlook that because they always get up for teams like Golden State.

In fact, the Timberwolves have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors.  They haven't lost by more than 13 points in any of those seven meetings.  And after Ricky Rubio called out the team for their lack of effort following a bad loss to the Pistons on the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out, I expect an inspired effort from them here tonight.

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off three straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +3

Two weeks ago before playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers said the Packers were going to run the table. Well, so far so good. Green Bay has saved its season with a 27-13 win as 4-point dogs at Philadelphia and a 21-13 home win over Houston as 7-point favorites last week. It is now just two games behind Detroit in the division and very much alive in the wild card race.

I think the fact that the Seahawks blew out the Panthers on National TV last Sunday night has them overvalued here. The betting public is all over them now. But that was an awful spot for the Panthers. They were coming off a crushing loss in Oakland the previous week that essentially eliminated them from the playoffs. And the Seahawks wanted revenge from two losses to the Panthers last season, including the NFC Championship Game.

The Packers have made a commitment to running the football the past couple weeks. They ran it 28 times against the Eagles and 26 against the Texans. They have been able to control the time of possession in both games as they have been consistently moving the sticks. That has benefited their defense, which has given up just 13.0 points per game over the past two weeks.

The Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They are just 2-3 in road games this season, compared to 6-0 at home. Seattle is scoring just 15.3 points per game on the road this year.  And Green Bay is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

The Packers have at least a 4-point home field advantage, and it’s pushing 5 points when it comes to the month of December when it gets colder out.  So this line is essentially saying that the Seahawks would be at least a 7-point favorite on a neutral field, and I'm not buying that.  Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 straight up in his last 15 December home starts.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Packers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the last time Seattle won in Green Bay. And not to mention, team captain Earl Thomas has been lost for the season due to injury. If there’s any quarterback who can take advantage of an absence like Thomas, it’s certainly Rodgers.

The Seahawks are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of last game over the past three seasons. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -24

I think the loss to UCLA last week was exactly what the Kentucky Wildcats needed to re-focus.  And that loss to UCLA doesn't look so bad considering the Bruins are still undefeated and just hung over 100 points on Michigan Saturday.  The Bruins may be the best team in the country.

Kentucky is right up there as a Top 5 team in the country in my opinion.  The Wildcats came back with a 24-point win over a very good Valparaiso team following that loss to UCLA.  And all eight of Kentucky's wins have come by 21 points or more this season, including  wins over Michigan State (by 21) and Arizona State (by 46).

Hofstra is a team of similar talent to a lot of these teams that Kentucky has been blowing out.  The Pride are 6-4 on the season and they haven't played anyone near the caliber of Kentucky.  They have lost to the likes of Sacred Heart, Manhattan, Vermont and Saint Bonaventure this season.

Their only wins have come against Coppin State (by 2), Bradley (by 2), South Dakota, Medaille, Columbia (by 2) and Florida Atlantic.  This is a Hofstra team that is still getting too much respect from the books after going 24-10 last year.  But they lost three starters from that team in Juan'ya Green (17.8 ppg), Ameen Tanksley (15.9 ppg) and Denton Koon (11.4 ppg) who combined to average over 45 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost.

The Pride are going to be in trouble here because they are a terrible defensive team despite playing such an easy schedule.  They are allowing 77.9 points per game, 45.8% shooting and 41.1% shooting from 3-point range against teams that only average 71 points per game, 41.7% shooting and 33.7% from 3-point range.  Kentucky will get to 100 in this game, which will be more than enough to cover this 24-point spread.

Hofstra is 0-8 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Kentucky Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +11

The Yale Bulldogs have no business laying double-digits to the Delaware Blue Hens Sunday.  I've been looking to fade these Bulldogs for a while now, and now we've finally got an opportunity to because their last four games haven't even had lines set for them.

The reason I've been looking to fade Yale is because they lost their best player in Makai Mason to a season-ending foot injury.  Maison was their only returning starter from last season.  He averaged 16.0 points last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Without him, they aren't one of the top Ivy League teams anymore.

That has clearly shown this season as the Bulldogs are just 4-4 on the year.  They lost on the road to Virginia by 24, to Pitt by 5, to Vermont by 2 and even to Bryant by 9.  They weren't very impressive in home wins over Lehigh (by 8) and Albany (by 4), two teams that aren't as good as Delaware.  Yale is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 23-7 last year and 13-1 in the Ivy League.  But without Mason, they now have zero returning starters from that squad.

Delaware has been impressive en route to a 6-3 start this season.  The Blue Hens beat Bradley by 14 on the road as 8-point dogs and Miami Ohio by 2 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 at LaSalle as 15.5-point dogs.  That's the same LaSalle team that took Villanova down to the wire the other day.

Delaware also has a scheduling advantage here.  It last played on December 2nd, getting over a week to prepare for Yale.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs last played on December 8th, getting only two days to prepare for Delaware.

Yale is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Delaware is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Blue Hens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Roll with Delaware Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

As the weather has gotten colder, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played their best football of the season. The Steelers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off three straight double-digit blowout victories and I expect them to continue to roll Sunday.

The Steelers have moved into a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. The Ravens play the Patriots on the road this week, so this is their chance to overtake them. And with how well they’re playing right now, the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points against the Bills.

The Bills will have a hard time getting back up off the mat this week after blowing a golden opportunity in Oakland last weekend. They led that game 24-9 in the third quarter, but gave up 29 unanswered points and wound up losing by 14. I simply do not like the state of mind of this team after that kind of loss, especially since their chances of making the playoffs are now slim to none. They would need to run the table, and even that might not be enough.

The Bills are now just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their two wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. They beat the Bengals by 4 the same day that they lost both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, and they were fortunate to beat the Jaguars after trailing most the way at home in that game.

The Steelers have outgained six straight opponents and eight of their last nine, which is the sign of a dominant team. They outgained the Giants by 155 yards last week in one of their most complete performances of the season. Ben Roethlisberger now has a full compliment of weapons, especially with the return of TE LaDarius Green, who caught six balls for 110 yards and a score last week.

The defense is starting to play more like the Steel Curtain units of the past. The Steelers have allowed a total of 30 points in their last three games and an average of 10.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed 28 or more points in four of their last six. I see the Steelers hanging a big number on them here and Buffalo not being able to catch up.

The key to stopping the Bills is stopping the run, and the Steelers have been great at that this season. They rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 92 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo.  The one-sided nature of this series continues this week.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7.5

The Detroit Lions have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against any team in the NFL.  Especially not a division rival like the Chicago Bears who continue to play hard and would love to put a blemish on the Lions' record here.

This line is a classic overreaction from the week before.  The Lions went on the road and shocked the Saints in a 28-13 victory as 6-point underdogs.  But that was the first time all season that the Lions won by more than a touchdown.  In fact, 11 of Detroit's 12 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less, and that alone shows you that there is value with the Bears here.

Not to mention, the Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL due to their 8-4 record.  But they have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 11 of their 12 games this season, which makes it nearly impossible to be 8-4.  The raw numbers show that the Lions aren't very good.  They rank 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 17.5 yards per game.  They also 22nd in yards per play differential (-0.2), gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.

If you just look at the stats, you would think the Bears are actually the better team.  The Bears actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.6).  They gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They Bears are also 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game on the season.

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 at home as 3-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bears outgained the Lions by 145 yards in that contest. Their offense racked up 408 total yards while their defense only gave up 263.  They held Matthew Stafford to 213 passing yards and two interceptions without a touchdown.  The Lions' only touchdown in that game came on an 85-yard punt return with less than two minutes to play.

I like what I've seen from Matt Barkley recently.  He is a gamer who doesn't make many mistakes.  And Barkley would have put up even bigger numbers the past two weeks if it wasn't for drops.  Bears receivers dropped 10 balls against the Titans in a game they should have won, and several more last week against the 49ers.  Had they caught some of them, that would have been a bigger blowout than the 26-6 final against San Francisco showed.

But Jordan Howard had a big day, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns for the Bears, and he should have a big game against this Lions' defense.  Detroit has had to play some of its safety's at linebacker because of injuries to their top two LB's in DeAndre Levy and Tahir Whitehead.  The Saints didn't take advantage of it last week as they only ran the ball 12 times.  Chicago won't make that same mistake.  Look for a heavy dose of Howard in this one.

Chicago is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.   The Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average at least 7 yards per attempt over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Orlando Magic are running on fumes right now, and it's starting to show.  The Magic have been blown out in back-to-back games with an 87-117 home loss to Detroit and an 88-109 road loss at Charlotte last night.

It's easy to see why this team is struggling right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 7th game in 10 days tonight.  That's as tough of a schedule as you will find in the NBA.

The Denver Nuggets come in the fresher team after having yesterday off.  They also come in motivated after losing two straight and five of their last six with four of those losses coming by 8 points or less.  They are ready to get a win here tonight against the gassed Magic.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that both starting C Nikola Vucevic and backup C Bismack Biyombo were injured last night and questionable to play today.  Denver is 20-5 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Orlando.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -3

The Butler Bulldogs will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  I went against them in that loss and took Indiana State +10.5.  The Bulldogs lost 71-72 after committing a foul in the closing seconds.  I took Indiana State because they are underrated, and also because I thought Butler would be looking ahead to this game against Cincinnati.

But now the Bulldogs return home where they are 5-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indiana is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this is a very small number for the Bulldogs to be laying in any home game.  They are undervalued because of that loss to Indiana State.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to its No. 22 ranking and 7-1 record on the season.  The Bearcats are also overvalued due to a recent road win over ranked Iowa State, but its clear that the Cyclones aren't all that good this season because they just lost by double-digits to a down Iowa team on Thursday.  The Bearcats are getting too much credit for that win.

Butler went on the road and beat Cincinnati 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs last year.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bearcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big East foes.  Butler is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bulldogs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Take Butler Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Marquette CBB Saturday No-Brainer on Marquette +4.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Steve Wojciechowski is in his third season and returned four starters from last year.  The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.

They are off to that start despite playing a pretty difficult schedule.  The two losses have come to Pitt and Michigan, but they have beaten both Vanderbilt (by 24) and Georgia (by 10) on the road as well.  They are clearly battle-tested right now.

Wisconsin has also played a difficult schedule.  But while the Badgers have taken care of business at home, they have not fared well on the road.  They lost their only true road game this season to Creighton (by 12) as 1.5-point favorites.  They also lost to North Carolina by 15 on a neutral court.

Marquette went into Wisconsin and won 57-55 as 7-point dogs last year.  But the Golden Eagles are vastly improved this season with all of the talent and experience they have back, and I don't think they should be underdogs at home this time around.  Marquette is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Wisconsin.

Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The New York Knicks are coming off a confidence-crushing 94-126 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night on ESPN.  They had won four straight prior to that game and were feeling pretty good, but it's going to be tough to recover from that loss in time to face the Sacramento Kings here two nights later.

That's especially the case considering the Knicks just beat the Kings 106-98 at home as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday.  They won't be motivated to beat the Kings again only five days later, while the Kings will be highly motivated for revenge here at home this time around.  I love this situation based on motivation.

The Kings are feeling pretty good after one of their best performances of the season in a 120-89 win at Dallas.  They went just 2-3 on their road trip, but all three losses came by 8 points or less to Washington, Boston and New York, so they were very competitive.  And the Kings still have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are consistently undervalued at home.

I know Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight after sitting out the Cavs game with a back injury, and I still would like the Kings at -4 even if he does play.  If he doesn't play it would only be an added bonus.  The Kings have actually won four of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Kings are rested as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Kings Friday.