Winning Sports Picks

20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3

The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win.  They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards.  It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.

But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report.  There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected.  So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better.  Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense.  The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.

The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed.  The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

This Kansas City offense is really broken this season.  They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown.  The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.

The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120

The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago.  They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot.  They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.

The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games.  Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I love the spot for Miami tonight.  Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9

The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential.  The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites.  They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.

Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards.  The Wizards are 2-10 this season.  The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season.  They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.

The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits.  Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite.  The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season.  They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more.  That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.

Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late.  They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game.  So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after.  They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.

Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued.  After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville.  That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.  

Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster.  Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason.  They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites.  The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.

UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games.  The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency.  The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.

Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points.  The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points.  But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game.  They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy.  They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury.  They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season.  The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games.  They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned.  Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.  The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season.  They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.

Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games.  The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS.  They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.

This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury.  The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.

Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1 OVER this season.  They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season.  They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season.  QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein.  The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.  

I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax.  It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye.  They crushed the Jaguars 34-3.  The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards.  And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game.  The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford.  They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff.  Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.

I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here.  They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games.  They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them.  They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.

The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL.  The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker.  When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.

Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent.  They have also been outscored on the season.  I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage.  Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks.  Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division.  They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites.  And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral.  They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game.  After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again.  But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5

The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.

The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week.  CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.  The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results.  It's not going to stop now.

I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week.  He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week.  Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run.  He is much more dynamic when that's the case.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game.  The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts.  I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense.  Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time.  Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf.  They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL.  They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.

We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers.  But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week.  The Bears will have success against their defense as well.

Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB.  They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place.  They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him.  Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.

This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings.  It will be more of the same in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots.  Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.

The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER.  Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer.  O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday.  He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.

The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks.  The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions.  They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing.  I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.

Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally.  They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.

The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home.  The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more.  They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.

The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach.  This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week.  They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs.  They are a legit good defensive team when healthy.  They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together.  The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.

Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior.  The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one.  Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher.  Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB.  The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog.  The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories.  They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now.  The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.

The spot really favors the Heat tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12.  Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12.  It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare.  This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.

After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston.  That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12.  They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB.  Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.

Iowa State isn't scared of Texas.  The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year.  Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too.  Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.

What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  This defense gives them a chance in any game.  They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country.  He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week.  Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively.  And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.

Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas.  Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now.  They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State.  They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.

Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season.  They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play.  The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.

Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers.  The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse.  They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season.  They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD.  He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.

I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season.  Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23.  We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser.  As you can see, I'm still not over it.  But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation.  They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.

Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons.  That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games.  They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries.  No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.

The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.

The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite.  The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5

I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons.  The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.

The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State.  But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.

The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week.  They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards.  That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory.  And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.

In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total.  The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense.  It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.

Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers.  They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more.  But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds.  Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score.  They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.

Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season.  He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary.  DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52

I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for.  Well, here's a good example of that.  Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game.  They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.

Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title.  They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well.  But I prefer the OVER instead.

Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo.  That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech.  The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.

The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games.  They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points.  They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points.  The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.

Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season.  They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well.  This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.

The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders.  This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs.  They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern.  They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB.  So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation.  Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.

Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener.  But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time.  Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it.  Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively.  They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt.  Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.

Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State.  They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons.  A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7

Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen.  They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least.  Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.

Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game.  They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense.  They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.

West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati.  The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game.  We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.

I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home.  But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma.  West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.

Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach.  After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke.  They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week.  They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan.  They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week.

James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself.  And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss.  Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite.  Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa.  But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers.  They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week.  They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.

Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago.  The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss.  The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns.  They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State.  If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.

Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss.  Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing.

The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end.  They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency.  They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out.  I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5.  The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch.  Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16

This game means nothing to UTSA.  Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters.  The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game.  As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.

UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels.  They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior.  Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.

South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight.  They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them.  The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior.  That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.

South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric.  The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat.  The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play.  They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.

Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games.  The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them.  They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.

Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home.  Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa.  McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.

Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin.  If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today.  The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.

The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Iowa Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/Iowa OVER 172.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Iowa Hawkeyes.  I fully expect Iowa to top 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 172.5 ticket.

Iowa is 3-0 OVER in their three games this season.  They beat North Dakota 110-68 for 178 combined points, beat Alabama State 98-67 for 165 combined points and beat lost 92-84 at Creighton for 176 combined points.  Iowa ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 7th in offensive efficiency while playing little defense.

Speaking of playing little defense, Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin for 181 combined points in the opener.  That's a Wisconsin team known for playing slow and struggling on offense.  They also lost 81-76 at Bowling Green for 156 combined points and beat Alcorn State 100-86 for 186 combined points.  The Red Wolves rank 290th in adjusted defense and 45th in average length of offensive possessions.  They like to get it up quick like the Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games following a road game.  The Hawkeyes are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team.  In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs.  Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game.  Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.  Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.

The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits.  San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10

Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East.  Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.

Michigan State is grossly overvalued.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.  The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Butler Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight.  Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West.  Well, they are going to be without him tonight.  They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.

I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game.  That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch.  Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight.  They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago.  Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.

This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2

Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.

Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far.  The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season.  They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.

Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003.  Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games.  Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.

Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job.  They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter.  It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up.  They have taken money every week and for good reason.  They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers.  I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.

Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.

Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati.  The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.

While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons.  The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.

Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players.  They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week.  DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.

While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns.  Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky.  Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back.  I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.  

Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter.  That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons.  They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th.  The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned.  That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be.  Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them.  They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night.  They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out.  He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.  Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night.  The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games.

The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles.  It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown/Rutgers UNDER 134

Rutgers remains a dead nuts UNDER team with head coach Steve Pikiell at the helm.  Through three games, the Scarlet Knights rank 281st in adjusted tempo, 150th in adjusted offense and 36th in adjusted defense.  They combined for just 129 points with Princeton, 114 points with Boson U and 123 points with Bryant.  This total of 134 has been set too high tonight.

Ed Cooley is the new head coach at Georgetown and he prefers to play slower and rely on defense similar to Pikiell.  He clearly has his hands full with this team after a 67-68 upset loss to Holy Cross as 17.5-point favorites.  Georgetown ranks 284th in adjusted tempo this season, playing even slower than Rutgers has thus far.  Points will be at a premium tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks PK

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-120 win at Detroit against the short-handed Pistons last night.  Four of five starters played at least 34 minutes in that game to put away the Pistons late.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Knicks tonight.

The Knicks had yesterday off following their loss in Boston on Monday.  They will be the fresher team for this one, and I believe they are the better team this season.  The Knicks have had the Hawks' number in recent meetings going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the least three meetings with road wins by 6 and 21 points as well as a home win by 24.  They clearly have the Hawks figured out.

Atlanta is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by 6 points or less.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or fewer.  The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -12.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a health scare and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

That has proven to be the case thus far as USC is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They beat Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites on a neutral.  Kansas State made the Elite 8 last year.  They also handled their business in a 85-59 win as 23.5-point favorites over CS-Bakersfield.  Ellis and Collier are meshing well and are up there for the best guard tandem in the entire country.

UC-Irvine has a really bad loss already coming 72-64 at San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  Their 91-74 home win over New Mexico State isn't that impressive when you consider New Mexico State lost by 40 at Kentucky the game prior.  Irvine is getting too much respect here and will be in over their heads against this loaded, underrated Trojans team.  Bet USC Tuesday.

15* Iowa/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5

Two teams that love to push the tempo play tonight as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Creighton Bulldogs.  Iowa ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and 7th in average possession length and 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 104.0 points per game through two games this season.  Creighton ranks 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency while scoring 97.0 points per game in their two victories thus far.

"We're trying to get up and down the court and I feel we do that as well as anybody in the country," Creighton guard Trey Alexander said leading into this game with Iowa. "So for us to play a team that likes to do what we do, I think it's going to work well in our favor."

Iowa is 44-27 OVER in its last 71 games overall.  Iowa is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. Big East opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +12.5

Iowa has a nice mix of veterans and young freshman talent and I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the country right now.  Iowa opened with a 110-68 win as 20-point favorites over North Dakota and a 98-67 win as closing 31.5-point favorites against Alabama State, though if you bet Iowa prior to close you likely won.

Peyton Sandfort (19.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has led the way but coach's son Patrick McCaffery (16.5 PPG) looks to be living up to his potential this season.  "We respect everybody but we fear no one," McCaffery said leading into this game with Creighton. "We really need to come in and push the envelope.  It's a great opportunity to compete.  They're a really good team."

Creighton is getting a lot of respect with a Top 10 ranking while bringing back three starters plus adding in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth.  They won and covered their first two games against Florida A&M and North Dakota State, so this is clearly a big step up in class for both teams.  I just don't think there's as much separation as this 12.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-2 this season and showing what they are capable of when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the court at the same time.  They have changed their offensive philosophy and are getting off shots quick so defenses don't have time to adjust, and Doncic is in the best shape of his life to accommodate it.

The Mavericks are scoring 124.1 points per game this season.  They rank 9th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency, so it's clearly working.  They just beat the Clippers 144-126 at home which was followed up by a 136-124 win at New Orleans.  They get to play the Pelicans again tonight, and it's going to be more of the same given the current state of their opponent.

The Pelicans are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA right now.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Larry Nance Jr.  They could also be without Herbert Jones, who is questionable.  There is too much on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and these two aren't capable of beating the Mavericks on their own.

The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 12 points or more and the five losses coming by an average of 14.8 points per game.  New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 120-plus points pre game.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas A&M -5.5

Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the country but they don't get the kind of respect as other top teams.  They should be more than 5.5-point favorites here against the rebuilding SMU Mustangs tonight.

Texas A&M is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS beating Texas A&M Commerce 78-46 as 21.5-point favorites.  To compare, Texas Tech beat that same team by 27 and Kentucky only beat them by 20.  The Aggies then went on the road and beat Ohio State 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs last time out.

SMU is 3-0 against a much softer schedule and have two concerning results already.  The Mustangs only beat Southwest Assembly of God 82-63 and Lamar 78-67 as 20-point favorites.  They aren't going to be able to hang with a team like Texas A&M given those results.

SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 November games.  The Mustangs are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games as a home dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Aggies are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Texas A&M is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as a road favorite or PK.  In Buzz Williams I trust.  Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tarleton State/Bradley UNDER 133.5

Bradley is a dead nuts UNDER team under head coach Brian Wardle.  They rank 321st out of 333 teams in adjusted tempo this season.  I think their first two games going over the total due to overtime has provided us with some line value on the UNDER here against Tarleton State tonight.

Bradley was tied 64-64 at the end of regulation against UAB for 128 combined points with a total of 140.5 that finished with 144 after OT.  Bradley was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for 124 combined points against Utah State with a 135-point total that finished with 138 after OT.  Both UAB and Utah State are known as up-tempo teams too, so that's saying a lot about how Bradley plays that those two games were at 128 and 124 at the end of regulation, respectively.

Tarleton State played another team like Bradley in Virginia to open the season.  They lost that game 80-50 for 130 combined points.  Tarleton also plays slow ranking 278th in the country in average length of offensive possession.  Tarleton is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games coming in.  Wardle is 15-6 UNDER in November home games as the coach of Bradley.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 239

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 123.1 points per game.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 8-1 start this season and scoring 120.7 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 263, 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

 20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5

Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now.  They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort.  That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  

The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.

Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued.  The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games.  They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites.  They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites.  They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out.  Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC.  They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.

Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games.  Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage.  They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season.  The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.

The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards.  They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites.  They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star.  They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs.  And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.

The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall.  They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them.  Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs.  They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround.  They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice.  That's mighty impressive.

I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills.  Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals.  LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol.  This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense.  Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.

Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach.  The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

That appears to be the case thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener.  They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out.  That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington.  And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.

South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener.  Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.  This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight.  They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.  

South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League.  A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo.  He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan.  He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles.  I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight.  Bet South Dakota State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.  

The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday.  They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.  They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York.  The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.

But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday.  He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out.  Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season.  It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State.  It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.

FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number.  Bet Miami Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy.  Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game.  There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.

The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons.  Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.

Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.

The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less.  Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town.  The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home.  They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.

The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out.  They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/76ers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 7-1 start this season and scoring 118.6 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120

The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend.  They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.

The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week.  They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week.  It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.

The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one.  They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world.  The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play.  Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.

The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football.  That was such a misleading final.  The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21.  They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.

This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games.  Their offense is broken right now.  They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two.  The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13.  Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions.  Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons.  They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games.  But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.

Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts.  He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points.  He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.

I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week.  They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for.  They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week.  Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.

But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything.  The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits.  They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL.  He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.

Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback.  They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson.  They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season.  Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line.  Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season.  They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare.  We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news.  It won't make a difference in his first game back.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135

I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week.  I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.

The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.

A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland.  But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury.  Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side.  Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance.  Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.

The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye.  Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be.  Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.

The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it.  Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers.  They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it.  Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.

This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least.  It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9.  Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards.  The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday.  It also shows up in the numbers.

The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense.  I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack.  Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.

San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game.  Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents.  Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing.  They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy.  What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.

Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.  They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards.  They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter.  They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.

This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games.  The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve.  Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it.  Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense.  It will matter this week.

It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr.  Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out.  Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.

I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals.  We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.

The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them.  The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game.  I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right.  It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints.  They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots.  Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place.  Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.

The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have.  They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics.  The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.

The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown.  They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.  Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable.  They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver.  He can't get separation any more.  Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.

Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift.  Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens.  The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games.  Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game.  Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5

The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC.  USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way.

Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12.  Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense.  They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.

They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender.  They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone.  They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks.  They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good.  To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more.  This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for.  Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103

Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West.  They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.

San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush.  They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards.  Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.

That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire.  That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.

Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State.  Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro.  He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.  The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.

No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%.  I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii.  They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense.  I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.

Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins.  San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season.  They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn.  I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  They are treating this game as their national championship.

Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons.  They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up.  They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer.  This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.

I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia.  That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them.  It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals.  So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one.  Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.

Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th.  That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule.  That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points.  Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.

Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning.  They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago.  He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing.  They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks.  Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.

Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground.  He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade.  The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.

Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game.  Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.

Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs.  The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites.  They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.

Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night.  The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.

Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5

I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for.  There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games.  Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5.  They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.

Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.

Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7.  The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers.  Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.

Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points.  I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State.  They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.

Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5

I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons.  Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.

They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points.  They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.

San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate.  They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play.  They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game.  They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.

Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat.  They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win.  They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too.  This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks.  They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.

Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games.  The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy.  They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for.  I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case.  It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5

The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season.  The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.

Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener.  Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt.  That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.

Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall.  Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season.  They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year.  But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.

The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week.  Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope.  Now I question their motivation the rest of the way.  That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.

QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it.  He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line.  He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.

The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley.  There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again.  South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5

What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than.  New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season.  Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season.  New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play.  Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play.  It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.

WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.  They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season.  Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.

The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.  Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season.  WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.

Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class.  Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee.  They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot.  I give them zero credit for that victory.

QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense.  I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread.  Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule.  That's a difference of 64 spots.  Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits.  It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson.  They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.

I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank.  They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win.  They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them.  Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.  

Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit.  The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play.  No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56.  The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5

The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West.  They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home.  While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game.  They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.

Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game.  They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass.  This is strength on strength here.  Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.

UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game.  Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for.  They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.

UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him.  The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out.  This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight.  It won't go well for the Kings here.  

Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III.  Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.

New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game.  The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer.  They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.

The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago.  Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage.  They don't have that same advantage tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets.  The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4

Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season.  They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall.  They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.

Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th.  The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener.  And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener.  I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  

Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games.  Bet Chattanooga Friday.

15* Hawks/Magic NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Orlando Magic were a good defensive team with Wendell Carter Jr. healthy.  But he has missed the last couple games and is out for three weeks now.  They are going to have to go more small ball without their starting center, and it's going to hurt them defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Atlanta and Orlando with 251, 259 and 233 combined points.  They have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings as well.  This total has been set too low tonight folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss.  Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.

The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.  He is likely to get the start again Thursday.  He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game.  The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior.  Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983.  Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season.  They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3

I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week.  But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB.  Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.

This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB.  They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago.  Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards.  And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers.  Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 yards last week.  Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.

But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now.  The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson.  Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell.  The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.

The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more.  Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week.  They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Bears Thursday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5

Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country.  Their last two games have been impressive.  They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat.  Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards.

Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields.  They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game.  That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention.

The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season.  It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt.  Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground.  He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt.  There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season.

Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year.  The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more.  Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  Bet Southern Miss Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are dead nut OVER teams.  The Pacers are 7-1 OVER in their eight games this season while the Bucks are 5-2 OVER in their seven games.  Both teams play fast, are great on offense and terrible on defense.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st on offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace, 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

That makes it no surprise that the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Pacers and Bucks with 247 or more combined points in all five meetings, and none of the five went to OT.  They have averaged 263.4 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 22.4 points more than this 241-point total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 221

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They just held the Kings to 89 and 97 points in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers are also more of an UNDER team, especially dating back to last season.  They rank 23rd in pace this season and 24th in offensive efficiency.  Instant offense bench player Gabe Vincent is out and Anthony Davis is questionable tonight.  Key defender Rui Hachimura is expected to return from a concussion tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - off a home win, a bad team from last season that won 25% to 40% of their games are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back.  They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites.  This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out.  They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.

Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer.  The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire.

Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites.  They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game.  They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone.  They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too.

Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division.  They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton.

I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out.  That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo.  They have three extra days than the Rockets do.  The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games.  I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive.

Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread.

Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.  Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game.  Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season.  The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th.

The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season.  Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6

The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four.  Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG).  It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play.  No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma.  Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.

Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home.  The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games.  They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall.  Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota.  Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach.  North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.

Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft.  They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core.  The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.

Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline.  Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023.  Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season.  Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3

Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan.  They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st.  I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home.  That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win.

The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites.  They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch.

Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now.  They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity.

Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game.  They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense.  Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well.  The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt.

WMU has played six road games and only three home games.  They are 2-1 at home this season.  CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home.  The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table.  It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena.  Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Monday.

15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans.  Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him.

The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray.  They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively.  Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury.

The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week.  I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored.  Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value.

What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City.  They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs.  They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs.  If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers.

What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall.  They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go.  They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve.  They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits.

The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game.  They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score.  They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game.

When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost.  They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami.  As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys.  I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one.  They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of.

The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat.  Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%.  Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play.  Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield.  Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now.  The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings.  The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5.  Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough.

The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury.  They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets.  They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense.

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115

The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule.  Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits.  Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver.

This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days.  Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night.  The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset.

Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3).  The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out.

The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd.  Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland.  The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points.  There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT.

The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight.  They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going.

Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons.  Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to.

The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT.  Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses.  Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.  The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards.

But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville.  After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense.  The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week.

Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him.  He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games.  The offense is basically fully healthy right now.  Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out.

Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense.  I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one.  This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year.  And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week.

The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win.  They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win.  They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%.  The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities.  They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120

The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2).  But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight.

The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury.  Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight.  I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories.

Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37

The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games.  This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week.

There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week.  The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM.  They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way.  He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers.  I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard.  O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior.  He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play.

On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week.  He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances.  The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload.  This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season.

This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week.  The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week.  Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense.  New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen.  They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him.

I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses.  That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks.  I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense.

The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total.  But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total.  They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami.  This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER.

The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2

I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning.  They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip.  The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate.

We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game.  The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play.  I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week.  They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots.

I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season.  But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them.  The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles.

This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs.  I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced.  They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy.

The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable.  Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB.  This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in.  So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville.

The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken.  They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season.  They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce.  The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory.

The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense.  There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game.  This team is trending in the right direction.

Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season.  They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win.  I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.

Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season.  The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs.  Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now.  They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night.  We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright.

Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did.  They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid.  They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season.  And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards.

NC State has played very well at home of late.  They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week.  They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here.  Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas.  NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites.  They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender.

Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3

USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs.

We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford.  But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior.  No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week.  Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night.

Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup.  The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game.

Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here.  USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense.  The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4

The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss.  The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight.  They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.

While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week.  That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series.  The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma.  They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road.  The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now.

This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night.  The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season.  They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3.  They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting.  They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas.  They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997.  It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984.  It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season.  This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks.

The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas.  They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion.  Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper.  The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers.

There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses.  Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't.  The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed.  Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games.  They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close.  They allowed 661 yards to Texas.  And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys.

Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008.  Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5

Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season.  But these records are now created equal.  Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5.  When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason.

Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now.  They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did.  They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively.  I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams.

Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team.  The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.

San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game.  The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade.  They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season.  Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021.  The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team.  They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score.  They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada.  Bet Utah State Saturday.