Winning Sports Picks

15* Kansas/Texas A&M ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M already proved that they could play with Kansas in their first meeting. The Aggies hung tough as a 19-point road underdog, but eventually lost 64-54. I like their chances of staying within 10 point at home in the rematch tonight.

The Aggies have certainly underachieved with their talent to this point of the season. They were supposed to be an NCAA Tournament team this year, but I know what they're capable of. Texas A&M will certainly be motivated to face Kansas tonight, and I believe they'll give the Jayhawks a run for their money.

Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas A&M Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4

The Houston Rockets are one of the more underrated teams in the league this season. Philadelphia is certainly overrated right now due to their fast start. I'll lay this small number with the Rockets at home in a game I see them winning by 7-plus tonight.

The 76ers are overvalued right now because they are 20-13, but they have played 19 home games compared to 14 road games this season. They have finally started to play more road games here of late, and are 0-3 in their last three road games.

Philly is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, including a 76-89 loss at Memphis last night. They will be playing their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while the Rockets come in on a days' rest. The Rockets are 13-4 at home this season, winning by 6.7 points/game.

The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Philly is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

15* WVU/Notre Dame ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame -2.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been absolutely rolling through conference play. I'll gladly back the red-hot Irish at home as a small favorite over rival West Virginia tonight.

The Irish already beat the Mountaineers 55-51 on the road earlier this season. That was a rare win for the road team. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series.

Notre Dame is 11-0 in their last 11 home meetings with West Virginia, having not lost to the Mountaineers in South Bend since 1987. They have won eight straight overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern -2

The Northwestern Wildcats are a bubble team right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. I have them beating the Michigan Wolverines tonight to help their cause. The Wolverines are primed for a letdown Tuesday after their huge home win over Ohio State this past Saturday.

At 16-10, the Wildcats will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to bolster their resume. Northwestern certainly helped their cause with a 64-53 home victory over Minnesota on Saturday. The Wildcats are now 11-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points/game.

While Michigan is 15-0 at home, the Wolverines are just 5-7 on the road. They are actually getting outscored away from home and there's no question this is a vulnerable team away from Ann Arbor. That 5-7 mark includes neutral court games as the Wolverines are only 2-6 in true road contests.

The home team has won four straight in this series. Northwestern has won their last two home meetings with Michigan by 14 and 15 points, respectively. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Roll with Northwestern Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Cavaliers UNDER 192.5

The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. Both squads are playing solid basketball of late, which can mostly be attributed to improvement at the defensive end of the floor.

Detroit has allowed less than 100 points in nine of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland has allowed less than 100 in 10 of their last 13 contests. I don't see either squad eclipsing 100 tonight, which will make it very difficult for this game go to over the number.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as well. Detroit is only scoring 88.0 points/game this season, including 85.0 points/game on the road. Cleveland isn't a whole lot better at 93.8 points/game on the year.

Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland's last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 39-13 in the last 52 meetings, and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a mere 4-point home favorite over the Portland Trail Blazers. They have been simply money at home all season, and this is a very generous line tonight.

The only reason I can see the Lakers being such a small favorite here is because they are playing the second of a back-to-back. But you could argue that Portland is the more tired team as they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while the Lakers are only playing their 4th game in 8 days. Off a poor performance last night in Phoenix, there's no doubt the L.A. will come back motivated tonight.

Los Angeles is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.8 points/game. They are only yielding 85.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting at home. That's bad news for the Blazers, who are just 5-10 on the road this season, scoring 91.3 points/game on 41.8 percent shooting.

This play falls into a system that is 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. L.A. is 32-8 in their last 40 and 16-3 in their last 19 home meetings with Portland at Staples Center. Roll with the Lakers Monday.

20* Baylor/Texas ESPN Big Monday BLOWOUT on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over ranked Baylor would go a long way in helping them solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I fully expect the Longhorns to win in a blowout tonight behind a rowdy home crowd down in Austin.

I believe Baylor is one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. That has certainly shown of late and in Big 12 play as all five of their losses have come against conference opponents. The Bears have lost three of their last four, including a 16-point home loss to Kansas and a 15-point road loss to Missouri.

Texas has won four of their last five to put themselves in good position to make the tournament. This young team has only gotten better as the season has progressed. The Longhorns have been especially tough in Austin, going 14-2 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.2 points/game.

Both of Texas' home losses this season have come to Missouri and Kansas by a combined 4 points. Both Tigers and Jayhawks are 2-0 against Baylor this season. The Longhorns are 12-1 under head coach Rick Barnes in 13 home meetings with Baylor.

The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. Big 12 opponents. Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Longhorns are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. After losing a heartbreaker at Baylor 76-71 in their first meeting on 1/28, I believe the Longhorns will have their revenge in a blowout tonight. Bet Texas Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to beat Orlando for the first time this season. I like their chances of getting revenge in a very tough spot for the Magic.

I just don't see Orlando bringing the motivation it's going to take to come away with a road victory tonight. The Magic have won the first two meetings with the Bucks this season, and they are coming off a deflating 78-90 loss at Miami yesterday. After playing the Heat, the Magic will have a hard time getting up for the Bucks.

Milwaukee easily could have won both games against Orlando this season. They held the lead going into the 4th quarter in both contests, and blew a 7-point lead in Orlando with less than six minutes remaining just four nights ago on February 17th. This will be their 3rd meeting in the last 10 days, so there's no question the Bucks are going to be the more motivated team.

The home team is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Magic. Scott Skiles is 40-19 ATS in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games in all games he has coached. Take Milwaukee Monday.

15* Magic/Heat ABC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -9

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I look for that to continue on National TV this afternoon as they get revenge on the Orlando Magic from an earlier loss this month. A motivated Heat team is certainly a dangerous one.

Miami lost 102-89 at Orlando on 2/8 for their worst loss of the season. There's no question this team has payback in mind, and I am banking on them getting it by double-digits at home this afternoon. Miami is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning all five contests by 15 points or more. Roll with Miami Sunday.

20* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +5.5

The Michigan State Spartans are getting way too much respect on the road today. They are a very good team and one of the best squads in the Big Ten, but there's no way they should be favored at Purdue.

The Boilermakers are 17-9 this season, including 11-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Purdue wants revenge from an ugly loss at Michigan State earlier this season, which is likely the biggest reason why the Spartans are favored. But in the Big Ten, home-court advantage means everything.

Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 8-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Boilermakers. Bet Purdue Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2.5

The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as just a 2.5-point home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. The Rams will be looking to revenge an earlier loss to the Cowboys in their first meeting of the season, so motivation will certainly be on their side.

Colorado State is one of the best home teams in the entire country this year. The Rams are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. CSU has won four of their last five meetings with Wyoming overall, so their road loss earlier this season was a rarity.

Colorado State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 197

The total in this game has been set way too high Saturday in a game that will result in a defensive battle. Both teams come in tired as they will be playing their second of a back-to-back. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days and Golden State is playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

These teams already met once this season in what was certainly a defensive battle. Memphis won at Golden State 91-90 for 181 combined points. The Warriors only managed 90 points despite shooting 50.0 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies shot 42.4 percent. I look for a similar final score tonight.

Golden State is 17-5 to the UNDER in their last 22 when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These last three trends make for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are a legitimate NCAA Tournament team. They really need this win Saturday to assure that they stay on track to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2005. I believe they win in a double-digit blowout against overmatched Oklahoma here.

Without question, Iowa State is the most underrated team in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 18-8 in all games this season, including 8-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play. ISU is 13-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points/game.

Oklahoma enters this contest on a five-game losing streak. That includes a 77-70 home loss to Iowa State, and blowout road losses at Kansas (62-84) and at Texas Tech (47-65). That was the Red Raiders' only Big 12 win of the season just to show how bad that loss was.

Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. These two trends make for a 12-0 system backing the Cyclones. Plus, the Sooners are 25-52-3 ATS in their last 80 road games. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Mavs/76ers NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing their best value of the season tonight as just a small 2.5-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks. The 76ers will be amped up to take on the defending champs while also looking to bounce back from a loss at Orlando last time out.

Dallas is way overvalued with this line due to their five-game winning streak and their blowout home victory over the Denver Nuggets last time out. That was a Denver team playing without several of their key players. Their streak ends tonight.

Philly is 20-10 SU & 19-11 ATS on the season. That includes a 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.8 points/game. The 76ers only give up 83.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting at home this year. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.

The 76ers have been incredible when trying to bounce back from a loss, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Philly is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. Philly has suffered back-to-back losses just once all season. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Golden State Warriors +10.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be catching double-digit points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State will be the more motivated team tonight, which means they will be giving the better effort which should result in a cover against this inflated spread.

Golden State has lost their first two meetings with Oklahoma City by 11 and 3 points, respectively. They'll want revenge tonight, while the Thunder could certainly be disinterested after opening 2-0 in this season series. The Warriors have been really tough in this series on the road, not losing any of their last three road meetings by more than 8 points.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Golden State is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City. Add up these three trends and we have a 20-2 (91%) System backing the Warriors. Take Golden State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued right now due to winning seven of their last nine while entering this game on a three-game winning streak. The Milwaukee Bucks are undervalued thanks to a three-game losing streak heading in. I'll side with the value and back the live underdog tonight.

Milwaukee obviously wants to put an end to this losing streak in a hurry. They'll be the more motivated team in this one, while Orlando comes in relaxed and not as hungry. The Bucks have been tough on the road this season, only getting outscored by 4.0 points/game. Orlando is only outscoring opponents by 4.2 points/game at home.

The Bucks just played the Magic on 2/11 less than a week ago, falling 99-94. Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less. Milwaukee will be out for revenge tonight as well, only adding more incentive for them to cover this large spread.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Milwaukee Friday.

15* Clippers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

This is simply too low of a line to pass up on the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles is clearly the better team when you factor in who is playing in this game, and you have to believe they are out for some revenge after losing to Portland on the road earlier this season.

The Trail Blazers were able to go on the road and beat Golden State 93-91 last night without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't see them having the same kind of success without Aldridge against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has a couple of pretty good players down low in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who should dominate this game on both sides of the floor. Without Aldridge (22.6 ppg) in the lineup, Portland's leading scorer is reserve Jamal Crawford at 14.3 ppg. They simply don't have enough offense to keep this game close.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Los Angeles is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Portland is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -2.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will make easy work of the Iowa Hawkeyes Thursday and cover this tiny spread with ease. Oddsmakers have missed their mark very badly in this Big Ten match-up. Home-court advantage is as big in this conference at it is in any other conference in the country.

That's especially the case in this series as the home team has been absolutely dominant. The home team is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2006. When Penn State makes it 11 in a row tonight, they'll likely win by 3-plus points to cover this generous spread, too.

Iowa has played 25 games this season, and they only have two road wins to their credit. The Hawkeyes are getting outscored by 13.1 points/game away from home. Penn State is a respectable 9-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points/game.

The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Penn State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs OVER 198

I fully expect the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks to take part in a shootout tonight. Points are usually easy to come by when these two teams get together, and I see them combining for 200-plus tonight with ease.

Denver is scoring 104.1 points/game and allowing 99.9 points/game this season for an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. Those numbers balloon to 107.1 for, 102.3 against and 209.4 combined in Denver road games.

Dallas is starting to light up the nets of late. The Mavericks are averaging 100.5 points/game in their last four. They should be able to take advantage of a Denver team that will be missing two key interior defenders in Nene Hilario and Timofey Mozgov. Look for the Mavs to get easy buckets around the rim all game.

Denver and Dallas have combined for 200 or more points in 14 of their last 15 meetings. That makes for a 14-1 (93%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Hornets +9.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing their best value of the season tonight as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee has no business being this heavily favored tonight in a game I believe the Hornets can win outright.

New Orleans finally put an end to their losing streak with an impressive 86-80 victory over the Utah Jazz two nights ago. Chris Kaman led the way with 27 points and 13 rebounds, while Greivis Vasquez dished out 10 assists filling in for the injured Jarrett Jack.

Milwaukee is just 12-16 on the season, yet they are getting treated like one of the elite teams in the NBA with this line tonight. The Bucks haven't won a game by double-digits since last month, and they could easily suffer a hangover from their blowout 96-114 home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.

The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. New Orleans has won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Milwaukee, making for a 91% system backing them tonight. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be laying double-digits against any team in this league. I know the Charlotte Bobcats have the worst record, but there's no question that this line has been inflated. I'll take advantage tonight.

The biggest reason for Charlotte's early struggles has been injuries. But the Bobcats are finally starting to get healthy, and they could be a very solid value play not only tonight, but over the next few weeks. They just got back their best player in Corey Maggette, who scored 22 points last time out. Also, starting PG D.J. Augustin is expected to make his return tonight.

Minnesota comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak. The Timberwolves have been overmatched during this skid, and they have no business getting this much respect tonight. This is a flashy team with the addition of Ricky Rubio, which makes them a public team. While the Timberwolves are improved this year, they remain one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.

Charlotte has been a thorn in Minnesota's side for years. The Bobcats have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Timberwolves. That includes four road victories during this stretch, which dates back to 2007.

The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the Bobcats. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic continue to be undervalued due to the trade talks surrounding Dwight Howard. The Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued due to their fast start. The clear value in this game is with the small home favorite.

Orlando is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games overall, beating up on some good teams while also taking advantage of soft lines. They have a win over Miami and solid road victories over the Pacers and Bucks during this stretch. Their only losses came by 5 points to the Clippers and by 2 points in overtime to the Hawks.

The 76ers are an impressive 20-9 on the season, but they have been doing most of their damage at home. Philly has played 18 home games compared to 11 road games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early success. The value is gone from this team for now, though it could come back later in the season.

This play falls into a system that is 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). After losing at Philly 69-74 in their first meeting this season, I like the Magic to have their revenge tonight. Roll with Orlando Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida -2

The South Florida Bulls should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers from what they've done in year's past, instead of what they are doing this year.

Villanova is 11-13 SU & 5-15 ATS this season. That includes a 2-10 SU & 3-8 ATS road mark. The Wildcats are giving up a whopping 75.7 points/game on the road. This team has been overvalued all season, and they remain overvalued tonight.

South Florida doesn't get the respect they deserve because they have not been a contender in the Big East over the last several years. But they are a contender this season. The Bulls are 15-10 in all games, including an impressive 8-4 in Big East play.

USF does not lose at home, going 12-1 while giving up just 57.1 points and outscoring opponents by 11.4 points/game this season. They already beat Villanova 74-57 on the road in their first meeting, so they should have no problem winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.

Villanova is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. These three trends make for an 18-0 ATS system backing the Bulls. Take South Florida Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been virtually unstoppable at the Staples Center all season. They are 11-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game. Their 85.2 points/game allowed at home is by far the best in the Western Conference.

Atlanta's nine losses to clubs with winning records this season have come by an average of 13.1 points, and it's fallen behind by at least 20 in its last five defeats overall. The Hawks have lost five straight road games to the Lakers by an average of 17.0 points, allowing 109.2 points per game while shooting 25.0 percent from long distance.

The Lakers' role players have been excellent at home, but terrible on the road. Steve Blake and Matt Barnes are averaging a combined 18.0 points and shooting 47.2 percent at Staples compared to 10.5 points and 34.9 percent on the road. This team simply plays with a lot more confidence as a whole at home, and this is a very generous line tonight.

The Hawks are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 vs. Western Conference. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 200

The Utah Jazz are extremely tired right now as this will be their 3rd road game in three days. I look for the Jazz to struggle offensively on tired legs, but for their defensive effort to be there. Utah will be coming up short on a lot of outside shots tonight.

The Thunder are a solid defensive team with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins inside. They only give up 93.7 points/game at home this season. Ibaka and Perkins really contained Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in their last game, a 101-87 road victory at Utah on 2/10. I expect a similar final in this one with well below 200 combined points.

Utah has been an UNDERS machine of late. The Jazz are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 188 or less points in five of those six contests. OKC has combined their their opponents to score 196 or less points in four straight home games.

Utah is 44-22 to the UNDER in their last 66 when revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 games as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +4.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders should not be an underdog at home to the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. This is a game I fully expect the Red Raiders to win outright. Texas Tech picked up a huge 65-47 victory over Oklahoma Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog, giving them a lot of confidence heading into this one.

The Aggies have simply been a disappointment this season. A big reason has been due to injuries as they just haven't been healthy at any point this year. This team appeared to have packed it in against Iowa State in a 46-69 road loss Saturday, which was their fourth straight defeat.

With how poorly Texas A&M has played on the road this season, there's no way they should be favored in this one. The Aggies are 1-8 in road games, losing by an average of 12.3 points/game. Texas Tech is a respectable 7-5 at home this year. The Aggies are 0-6 in Big 12 road games, losing all six by 9 points or more.

The Aggies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Texas A&M is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Phoenix Suns. Golden State continues to go under the radar. I believe this is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and it's simply taken some time to gel under new head coach Mark Jackson.

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are riding a two-game winning streak with impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (109-101) on the road and the Houston Rockets (106-97) at home. Under the defensive-minded Jackson, the Warriors are playing much better defense, giving up 100.7 points/game overall and less than 100 points/game at home.

Phoenix is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. That's indicated by the fact that the Suns are 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS. Phoenix is only scoring 92.2 points/game away from home this season. They simply haven't surrounded Steve Nash with the kind of talent it takes to make this team a playoff contender.

The Warriors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. The home team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Suns are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Golden State. Take the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bobcats OVER 176.5

The total has been set far too low in this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Bobcats. I fully expect these teams to combine for 180-plus points tonight to get this OVER with relative ease.

Looking at season averages alone, it's easy to see that there is some value with this OVER tonight. Philly combines with their opponents to average 182.5 points/game, including 190.7 points/game on the road. Charlotte combines with their opponents to average 187.2 points/game overall.

Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up 100.9 points/game on 47.1 percent shooting. I look for the 76ers to exceed the 100-point mark, paving the way for an easy OVER in this one.

The Bobcats have combined with their opponents for 178 or more points in six of their last seven games overall, and Philly has combined with their foes for 178 or more points in six of their last seven as well. These are two 86% OVER systems pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Baylor Bears, on the other hand, have been overrated all year thanks to a soft early schedule. This line reflects both of my opinions as the Cyclones simply should not be catching this many points.

Iowa State is 18-7 on the season and deserving of being ranked. The Cyclones are 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in conference play. Their record against the spread in Big 12 games just shows how underrated this team really is. Head coach Fred Hoiberg brought in a ton of talented transfers, and they have really started to gel in conference action.

Baylor's true colors have shown here recently. They lost at home to Kansas 54-68 on 2/8 and followed that poor performance up with a 57-72 road loss at Missouri on 2/11. Iowa State only lost to Kansas by 9 on the road, and they beat the Jayhawks are home 72-64. ISU has not lost a Big 12 games by more than 9 points this season.

Baylor is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after 2 or more consecutive unders. Iowa State is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, while the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These five trends make for a 34-0 system backing ISU. Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 188

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They give up just 91.7 points/game this season, including 91.6 points/game at home on 41.7 percent shooting. they like to play at a slow pace, so playing at home tonight the Grizzlies will control the tempo in this one.

Memphis is scoring 88.2 points/game and allowing 92.0 points/game in their last five contests for an average combined score of 180.2 points/game. I fully expect this game to see 180 or less combined points as the Grizzlies and Jazz take part in a defensive battle on National TV. These teams met earlier this season on 1/06 and combined for 179 points.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 15-7 in Jazz last 22 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Heat/Hawks ESPN ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -4

The Miami Heat are showing solid value Sunday as a mere 4-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. Rarely will you get the Heat at this kind of price. In my opinion, they are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bulls, so you should definitely pull the trigger any time you get them as a small favorite.

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.

Atlanta is 11-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

The Chicago Bulls are the real deal. Any time you can get the Bulls at this kind of price, you better take advantage. That's precisely what I'm doing Sunday as the Bulls go into Boston and come away with a blowout victory.

In my opinion, the Bulls are the best team in the league. They are 23-6 this season despite playing several games without Derrick Rose due to injury. While I expect Rose to play today, I still envision the Bulls covering either way.

This play falls into a system that is 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road favorites (CHICAGO) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. These three trends make for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic are showing great value tonight as just a 2-point road favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando remains one of the best teams in the league despite the trade talks for Dwight Howard.

Orlando owns Milwaukee, winning three straight in this series and six of their last seven meetings. The Magic come in the more motivated team tonight after losing in overtime last night to the Hawks, while the Bucks escaped with an overtime victory over the Cavaliers.

Another reason I like this play is because the head referee is Tony Brothers. He is known for favoring road teams. Road clubs are 14-9 ATS in all games he has officiated this season. In 2010-11 road teams were 43-27-1 ATS, in 2009-10 they were 49-21-2 ATS, in 2008-09 they were 38-34-2 ATS, and in 2007-08 they were 45-30 ATS. This is not by coincidence, folks.

The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Orlando is 7-2 ATS in thier last 9 road games. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Take Orlando Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +15.5

The Maryland Terrapins are showing their best value of the season today against the Duke Blue Devils. Not only is Maryland playing their best basketball of the year right now, but Duke is in a huge letdown spot.

Duke is coming off their biggest win of the season, a buzzer-beating 85-84 road victory over arch rival North Carolina. There's no question they've been getting patted on the back leading up to this game, and they'll come out flat this afternoon because of it.

The Blue Devils have been prone to getting upset at home this season. Duke lost 73-76 as a 10-point home favorite to Florida State, and they also lost 74-78 to Miami as a 12-point favorite in their last game at Cameron Indoor.

Maryland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. While the Terrapins are just 4-5 in ACC play, they are an impressive 6-2-1 ATS. They have not lost an ACC game by more than 14 points this season, and that came at Florida State.

Duke is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games where the total is 150 to 159.5. The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Maryland is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC foes. These four trends make for a 22-0 system backing the Terrapins. Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +10.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Getting them as a double-digit underdog Saturday is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The betting public is expecting UNC to bounce back, but I see it the complete opposite.

North Carolina will suffer a hangover from their huge 85-84 home loss to the Duke Blue Devils at the buzzer earlier this week. The Blue Devils are their arch rivals, so it's a loss that will take some time for them to get over.

Virginia is 19-4 on the season, just one win shy of North Carolina. The Cavaliers are 6-3 in conference play, with all three losses coming by 3 points or less. Those three losses have come by a combined 8 points, including a 58-61 setback at Duke and a 55-58 loss at Florida State. This team is the real deal.

The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in road games this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Virginia is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots. Virginia is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game. These four trends make for a 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* Lakers/Knicks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are clearly the superior team, and that will show on the court tonight. They come in with a ton of confidence after beating the Boston Celtics in overtime last night, picking up a signature road win that has been eluding them. I look for L.A. to build off that performance by destroying New York here.

The Knicks have actually won two straight games without Carmelo Anthony or Amare Stoudemire. As I've seen in year's past, teams can win right away without their superstar(s), but it eventually catches up to them withing a few games.

New York is getting way too much respect with this line due to all the hype that PG Jeremy Lin is receiving. While Lin has played well, he has led the Knicks to wins over the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, which is no big achievement. He and the Knicks' run comes to an end tonight against a legitimate opponent.

While the Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back, it won't affect them because they came into the Boston game on two days' rest. This team will give just as good of an effort as they did last night, which will be more than enough to beat the Knicks by 4-plus points.

The Lakers are 9-0 in their last nine meetings with New York dating back to 2007, winning eight times by 5 points or more. Kobe Bryant always gets up to play in Madison Square Garden, where he holds the single-game scoring record of 61 points. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Grizzlies UNDER 184

The Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers are two of the best defensive teams in the league. I have no doubt this is going to be a defensive battle tonight when these teams square off in Memphis. I don't believe either team will reach 90 points in this one as it doesn't touch 180 combined points.

Memphis has been an UNDERS machine all season, especially since losing their best player in Zach Randolph to injury. The Grizzlies are 16-10 to the UNDER in all games as they score 92.5 points/game and allow 91.7 points/game. The Grizzlies and their last three opponents have combined for 178, 173 and 165 points.

Indiana is 14-11 to the UNDER in all games, scoring 94.2 points/game and allowing 91.3 points/game. Opponents are only shooting 42.1 percent from the floor against this revived Indiana defense. That's the biggest reason for their improvement this season as the Pacers come into this game at 17-8.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER in their last 7 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games as a favorite. These three trends make for a perfect 21-0 UNDER system. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -13

The Chicago Bulls are simply storming through the NBA once again this season. This is a big number, but I'm willing to lay it as they'll be facing one of the worst NBA teams tonight. The best part about Chicago is that they rarely have letdowns, bringing their best effort night in and night out against all competition.

Chicago has won four straight games, including three in a row by 21 points or more all on the road against the Bucks, Nets and Hornets. The Bulls are 22-6 on the season, including 17-11 ATS. Chicago has won three straight over Charlotte, including a 101-84 victory in their last road meeting.

The Bobcats are 3-22 SU & 9-16 ATS in all games this season. Charlotte has lost 12 straight coming into this one, including seven of their last nine by double-digits. This team simply cannot be competitive because they are missing three of their best players in D.J. Augustine, Gerald Henderson and Corey Maggette.

The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing 2 consecutive road games. Roll with the Bulls Friday.

20* Thunder/Kings TNT Late-Night PARLAY on Sacramento +7/OVER 201.5

I like both of these plays quite a bit tonight. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best basketball of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an OVERS machine of late. I believe both selections get the cash tonight.

I am on Sacramento because they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they have only won three of those six games, their three losses all came on the road by a combined 8 points, and they were never beaten by more than 3 points. The Kings also picks up impressive home wins over the Blazers and Warriors.

Oklahoma City is simply overvalued at this point in the season due to the fact that they own the best record in the Western Conference at 20-5. But this team has simply been winning most of their close games, which is the reason for their good record. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.8 points/game on average, including 2.1 points/game on the road.

Sacramento has played the Thunder very tough at home over the past few seasons. The Kings have not lost to Oklahoma City by more than 8 points in any of their last six home meetings. Five of those six games were decided by 6 points or less.

Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games overall. Not surprisingly, they have played their last six games without top defender Thabo Sefolosha, who is expected to miss tonight's game as well. The Thunder have topped the 100-point mark in six of their last eight games, but they have given up 109 or more points in five of their last seven. This team is not playing any defense right now.

The last two meetings in this series have seen 232 and 222 combined points, respectively. I expect a similar shootout tonight between two teams that play little defense. The OVER is 10-1 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings and the OVER tonight.

20* Thunder/Kings TNT Late-Night PARLAY on Sacramento +7/OVER 201.5

I like both of these plays quite a bit tonight. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best basketball of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an OVERS machine of late. I believe both selections get the cash tonight.

I am on Sacramento because they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they have only won three of those six games, their three losses all came on the road by a combined 8 points, and they were never beaten by more than 3 points. The Kings also picks up impressive home wins over the Blazers and Warriors.

Oklahoma City is simply overvalued at this point in the season due to the fact that they own the best record in the Western Conference at 20-5. But this team has simply been winning most of their close games, which is the reason for their good record. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.8 points/game on average, including 2.1 points/game on the road.

Sacramento has played the Thunder very tough at home over the past few seasons. The Kings have not lost to Oklahoma City by more than 8 points in any of their last six home meetings. Five of those six games were decided by 6 points or less.

Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games overall. Not surprisingly, they have played their last six games without top defender Thabo Sefolosha, who is expected to miss tonight's game as well. The Thunder have topped the 100-point mark in six of their last eight games, but they have given up 109 or more points in five of their last seven. This team is not playing any defense right now.

The last two meetings in this series have seen 232 and 222 combined points, respectively. I expect a similar shootout tonight between two teams that play little defense. The OVER is 10-1 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings and the OVER tonight.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee State +10.5

I've been fading Murray State for a few weeks now with a lot of success. The Racers are the only undefeated Division 1 team left in the country at 23-0. As a result, this team is way overvalued right now and has been for a few weeks.

Murray State is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Time and time again this team is a double-digit favorite and they simply cannot live up to expectations. Once again, I find the Racers laying double-digits against a team that has a chance to put an end to this streak tonight.

Tennessee State is the real deal at 15-10. The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, playing their best basketball of the season. In fact, Tennessee State has not lost by more than 7 points in any of their last 16 games. That makes for a perfect 16-0 system backing them tonight pertaining to the double-digit spread set for this contest.

Murray State is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games off a win against a conference rival. The Racers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite. Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. Add these last four trends up and we have a perfect 37-0 system backing the Tigers. Roll with Tennessee State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +10

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against Wichita State in a game that will go right down to the wire.

Northern Iowa is 16-9 this season. Creighton and Wichita State are the two teams that get talked about the most in the MVC, but UNI is right there with them. The Panthers stay competitive because of their ability to defend. They give up just 60.8 points/game this season.

UNI wants revenge from a 68-71 home loss to Wichita State in their first meeting. That game obviously went right down to the wire, and I have no doubt this one will too. Wichita State is simply getting too much credit for playing at home tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game. Wichita State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts. UNI is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a home loss vs opponent. Northern Iowa is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less. Wichita State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. These six trends make for a 41-0 system backing the Panthers. Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing awesome value as just a small home favorite tonight over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a very generous line to back one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.

Philly is 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS in all games this season. That includes a 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS mark in home games. The 76ers are outscoring opponents 95.7 to 82.9 at home this season, or by an average of 12.8 points/game. They are the best defensive team in the league, allowing a mere 86.6 points/game in all games.

San Antonio is overrated due to their recent 5-game winning streak. This is a team that has done most of their damage at home, and little damage on the road. The Spurs are 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 5.0 points/game. They are giving up a whopping 98.3 points/game away from home.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game. Philly is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with San Antonio. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing Philly. Plus, the home team has won eight straight meetings, and the 76ers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings with the Spurs. Bet Philadelphia Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh -2.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are on a roll right now. They are making their run to try and play themselves into the NCAA Tournament. This team remains undervalued due to their slow start, but they're finally starting to play up to their potential.

At 15-9 on the season, I'm certain the Panthers would fall short of the Big Dance if the season were to end today. Their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in their last four games has put them right back into the mix. That includes home wins over Providence (86-74), Georgetown (72-60) and Villanova (79-70) while also going on the road and beating West Virginia (72-66).

South Florida is no match for red hot Pittsburgh tonight. The Bulls are coming off a 30-point beat down at the hands of Georgetown (45-75). Their only Big East wins this season have come against bottom feeders in Rutgers, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. Johns, DePaul and Providence. They aren't ready to beat a quality team like Pitt.

South Florida is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East. Take this 11-0 system backing the Panthers straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +14

Because the Charlotte Bobcats are off to such a poor start, this team is going to show great value over the next few weeks. The Bobcats are clearly struggling this year, but the value is there to pull the trigger tonight. Boston should not be this heavily favored.

The Celtics have not been a consistent team this season. They cannot be expected to blow the Bobcats out tonight. The Celtics are 13-10 on the year with very few wins by this margin. With the Lakers coming up next, I'm expecting the Celtics to look ahead to that rivalry, which is the most storied in the NBA.

Looking ahead when facing the Bobcats became a regular occurrence last season. Charlotte actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Celtics last year. They won outright as a 13-point dog and as a 4.5 point dog, while also losing by 5 as an 8-point dog. Two of those three games were in Boston.

This play falls into a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in February games. Boston is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Pacers UNDER 193.5

The Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This line opened at 189 and has been bet all the way to 193.5 as the public is on the OVER. This provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Looking at season averages alone, this is a no-brainer.

Utah is scoring 96.9 points/game and giving up 96.9 points/game for an average combined score of 193.8 points/game. Sure, that number is basically right at tonight's posted total, but looking at Indiana's numbers tells the story.

The Pacers are scoring 94.0 points/game and giving up 90.7 points/game for an averaged combined score of 184.7 points/game. Those numbers drop to 93.9 and 87.5 for an average of 181.4 points/game in Indiana home games. The Pacers will control the tempo at home tonight and I expect a final to come in the low 180's.

Indiana is 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 home games where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points. I'm seeing an average combined score of 183.7 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 10-4 in Jazz last 14 road games. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pacers last 11 home games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +2

The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. They still didn't get ranked this week despite three straight impressive wins to get to 17-6 on the year. They beat Kansas and Kansas State at home before going on the road to knock off Oklahoma.

I look for the Cyclones to use them not getting ranked as big-time motivation heading into this game with Oklahoma State. ISU is 7-3 in Big 12 play and only 1.5 games out of first place after Missouri won at Oklahoma last night. This team is the real deal and should not be an underdog to the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is no more than a mediocre team at 11-12 on the season. They have no business being favored in this contest. The Cowboys are just 4-6 in conference play, which includes a road loss at Iowa State in their first meeting this season. With ISU playing their best basketball of the year right now, I expect them to cap off the season sweep.

Iowa State is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. ISU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The clones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These four trends make for a 27-2 (93%) System backing the Cyclones. Take Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +2

The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog an home to the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday. I'll take advantage of this line mistake by backing Portland to win and cover in this one as they continue playing superb basketball at home.

The Blazers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in 12 home games this season. They scoring 105.7 points and allowing 89.2 points while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 16.5 points/game. Oklahoma City is one of the top teams in the west, but four of their five losses have come on the road.

The Blazers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 home games. Portland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Oklahoma City. The Blazers are 74-47 ATS in their last 121 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the Blazers Monday.

20* UConn/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Louisville -4

The Louisville Cardinals are showing great value Monday as only a 4-point home favorite over the UConn Huskies. UConn has been overrated all season after winning the championship last year. That has really shown in Big East play.

The Huskies are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall despite being a favorite in four of those five contests. UConn is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 62.8 points/game on 41.1 percent shooting.

Louisville is 18-5 this year and one of the top teams in the country. The Cardinals are a super 14-2 at home, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. They are only giving up 60.4 points on 36.8 percent shooting at home.

Louisville is red hot right now, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 9 points or more. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cardinals are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Huskies. Bet Louisville Monday.

25* Giants/Pats Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England -2.5

The New England Patriots are out for revenge in the Super Bowl. Certainly, both teams want this one as much as humanly possible. However, it's the Patriots that come into this contest with more to prove.

The Giants have beaten them the past two times they've faced one another. In both occasions, New York was able to march down the field for the game-winning touchdown with only seconds remaining. They won't be so fortunate this time around as the Patriots dominate from start to finish.

I look for New England to play at a fast pace and use the no-huddle to their advantage. This will help slow down New York's pass rush as they won't be able to make mass substitutions, which won't allow their defensive linemen to stay fresh all game. There's no question that head coach Bill Belichick will have the better game plan coming into this one, and I trust Tom Brady and company to execute it.

New England has stepped up their defense in the playoffs. The Patriots have only allowed an average of 15.0 points/game in back-to-back victories over the Broncos and Ravens. While this defense has been giving up a lot of yardage this season, they only allow 20.7 points/game. Compare that to the Giants, who give up 23.1 points/game. In the end, it's points that win you games.

The Patriots are an incredible 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games revenge a same-season loss. Belichick is a perfect 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 points or more as the coach of New England. That's a stretch that dates back to 2000, his first year as head coach. Also, Belichick is 17-3 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite as the coach of New England. Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic are back on track and on a mission. The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect for their win at Dallas last night. These two factors coupled together provide us with excellent value on the Magic Saturday.

Indiana is 4-16 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Magic Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have beaten the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats in back-to-back games despite not being a favorite in either. ISU should be a favorite today against lowly Oklahoma, but they're not.

The Cyclones are 16-6 on the season and legitimately one of the best teams in the BIg 12. ISU is 6-3 in the Big 12 this season to show their true colors. Oklahoma is 3-6 in the Big 12 this year, and just 13-8 on the season. This team is not on the same level as the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +6.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing tremendous value tonight. Baylor is a team that I believe has been overrated for quite some time. They should not be favored at all at Oklahoma State, let alone by 6.5 points.

OSU is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Oky State is 8-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Cowboys Saturday.

20* Knicks/Celtics NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +7

The New York Knicks are showing awesome value Friday as a big road underdog to the Boston Celtics. Boston is getting a lot of love because of their recent play. But the fact of the matter is that the Celtics have had to win six of their last seven just to get to 11-10 on the season. This is still a mediocre team at best.

The Knicks are off to a slow start, but that's why they are showing so much value here. It's only a matter of time before a team with this much talent gets going. After thumping the Detroit Pistons 113-86, the Knicks came back last night and gave the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls all they could handle. The Knicks would lost 102-105, but they're certainly battle-tested coming into this showdown with the Celtics.

New York is a superb 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. division opponents. They are actually outscoring their division foes 101.1 to 97.2 in this spot. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. These three trends make for a 22-1 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued heading into this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Orlando has been one of the most overrated teams in the league this season, the Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated.

Orlando simply cannot be trusted with the Dwight Howard situation and his likely trade looming. That has especially been the case of late as the Magic are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Their one win came at home against the lowly Washington Wizards 109-103.

The Cavaliers are 8-12 SU, but 12-8 ATS. They have been dealt a very tough schedule in the early going with 12 road games compared to 8 home games. Cleveland is 5-7 SU, but 8-4 ATS in road games this season. They are only getting outscored by 3.5 points/game away from home.

Orlando is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a home win against a division rival. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. These three trends make for an 18-1 system going against the Magic. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Heat/76ers NBA Friday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should not be a home underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. This is simply a display of how the Heat are way overvalued while the 76ers remain undervalued. These are two 16-6 teams and two of the best teams in the East, but I'll sign with the home squad to get it done here.

The 76ers will be out for revenge after a rare loss on the road in their first meeting with Miami earlier this season. Philadelphia has been dominant at home all year. The 76ers are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in home games, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points/game.

Miami has been very beatable on the road this season. The Heat are just 6-4 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.3 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 101.5 points/game in road games as their defense has been nearly non-existent. To compare, the 76ers are only giving up 81.3 points/game at home.

The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games, while the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Philly. Take the 76ers Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Troy -3

This one is just about as obvious as it gets folks. Florida International is getting too much respect with this line despite being just 5-15 on the season. Troy isn't much better at 7-13, but the Trojans are playing at home and are clearly the choice at this small price.

Troy is a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. The Trojans are a respectable 5-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game. FIU is just 4-8 on the road, getting outscored by 5.1 points/game.

The home team has been dominant in this series, winning six of the last eight meetings. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Troy is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Roll with Troy Thursday.

25* College Basketball DOG OF THE YEAR on SE Missouri State +16

Murray State is the only unbeaten Division 1 team left. As a result, the Racers are way overvalued right now. The betting public is constantly all over this team because of their unbeaten mark. They have been getting killed of late because of it.

Murray State is 21-0 on the season. However, the Racers have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. All five of those contests were decided by 17 points or less. This team is starting to feel invincible, and they simply aren't showing up every night with the kind of effort it takes to cover these large spread.

SE Missouri State is a quality team at 12-9 on the season. This squad has been underrated all year as they've gone 11-6 ATS in all lined games. SE Missouri State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with both losses coming by 4 and 15 points, respectively. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Murray State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Racers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games off a win against a conference rival. Murray State is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. These three trends make for a 23-0 system backing SE Missouri State. Plus, the road team is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet SE Missouri State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4

The Memphis Grizzlies remain overrated despite playing without their best player, Zach Randolph. It has finally caught up to them as the Grizzlies are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. This team should not be getting this much respect Thursday.

Atlanta continues going under the radar despite being one of the top teams in the league. The Hawks are 16-6 on the season, including 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points/game. Memphis is 4-7 on the road, getting outscored by 5.8 points/game.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Atlanta Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +7.5

The Texas A&M Aggies are a lived underdog tonight at home against the Baylor Bears. This team should not be this heavy of a dog at home Wednesday. They are in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season and are fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Aggies are a mediocre 12-8 on the season, but they have won three of their last five games overall. All three wins came at home against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Their two losses during this stretch came at Missouri by 19 points and at Kansas by only 10.

Texas A&M has been at their best by far at home this season. The Aggies are 11-2 at home, outscoring their opponents by 11.2 points/game. Baylor has been overrated all season. The Bears showed their true colors in a 74-92 loss at Kansas. They also lost at home to Missouri 88-89. The Bears are clearly very beatable.

These teams already met once this season with Baylor winning 61-52 at home as a 13.5-point favorite. There's no question that the Aggies are capable of winning this game after losing by just 9 on the road in their first meeting. The Aggies are 59-39 ATS in their last 98 revenging a road loss vs opponent. Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take Texas A&M Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194.5

The total has been set way too high in this game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. I fully expect a defensive battle tonight. These teams just played on January 22nd in Miami with a 91-82 victory for the Heat and 173 combined points.

Miami and Milwaukee have historically played in some very low-scoring games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series with 190 or less combined points scored in nine of those 10 games. The only exception was a 101-95 overtime victory by Miami on 1/7/2011. That game was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation.

Milwaukee is 13-1 to the UNDER in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 12-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER 194.5 points in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -4.5

Dayton is showing tremendous line value tonight as a small home favorite against Duquesne. Dayton is 14-7 on the season and one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 while Duquesne is 11-9 and in the middle of the pack.

The reason this line is so low is because Dayton is coming off back-to-back losses. That includes a bad 81-86 home loss to Rhode Island last time out. This team will come back very hungry and motivated tonight, and you can be sure they'll be giving 100% effort on the floor.

Dayton is 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points/game. Duquesne is just 4-6 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.4 points/game. Given these numbers, the Flyers are clearly showing some of their best value of the season tonight.

Duquesne is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after 3 or more consecutive unders. The Dukes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Flyers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Duquesne is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic 10. The home team has won four straight in this series. Bet Dayton Wednesday.

15* Bobcats/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte +13

The Charlotte Bobcats always tend to play the Los Angeles Lakers very tough. At the same time, the Lakers are certainly a team that has played to the level of their competition over the last few years. I look for the Lakers to overlook the Bobcats enough tonight to let Charlotte cover this inflated number.

The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. In fact, Charlotte has actually won 8 of those 13 meetings outright! The Lakers' largest margin of victory in their five wins has been by 9 points. Two of their wins have come by a single point!

The Lakers haven't beaten the Bobcats by more than 11 points once in 14 meetings since 2005, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK

The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. That is clearly evident by this line tonight. I was on Iowa State as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR when they knocked off Kansas 72-64 as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. I'm on them once again Tuesday as they're undervalued again.

ISU is 15-6 on the season. They have shown that they are for real in conference play, going 5-3 with all three of their losses coming by 9 points or less. Two of those losses were at Kansas and at Texas, while the other was at home against the best team in the Big 12 in the Missouri Tigers.

Kansas State is 15-5 this season, but they have struggled in conference play a bit. The Wildcats are 4-4 in Big 12 action, losing twice to unranked Oklahoma. ISU lost both meetings with Kansas State last year, including a 1-point setback at home. I look for the Cyclones to really want revenge, and they'll get it with a much-improved team from a year ago.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. ISU is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas State. K-State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cyclones. Take Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions should not be this big of an underdog at home to the Wisconsin Badgers Tuesday. Home-court advantage is as big in the Big Ten as it is in any other conference. The Nittany Lions are certainly a live underdog tonight.

Wisconsin is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.3 points/game on the road this season. Penn State is 8-4 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.9 points/game. Looking at these numbers alone, it's safe to say that there's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire.

Penn State comes in very battle-tested after playing back-to-back games at Indiana and at Ohio State, arguably the two best teams in the Big Ten, right there with Wisconsin and Michigan State. This is a Nittany Lions team that has knocked off both Illinois and Purdue at home this season, and they also played Indiana to a 6-point game at home.

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Wisconsin, winning two of those games outright. Penn State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Bet Penn State Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league this season, and any time you can get the Thunder at this, they are worth a look.

The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a grueling 109-105 win at Denver last night. Meanwhile, the Thunder come in on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go when thye hit the floor tonight.

The Thunder are 16-3 this season, including a very impressive 8-2 on the road. OKC is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +4

Samford is playing their best basketball of the season over the past two-plus weeks. They should not be an underdog at home against a Charleston team that is in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. I'll side with the home team playing the better basketball right now.

Despite being an underdog in four of their last five games, Samford has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. Their only loss came by a single points at UNC-Greensboro 60-61. This team is playing so well that they even beat Davidson 77-74 last time out as a 12-point dog.

Charleston is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. That includes back-to-back home losses to Furman and Wofford, which followed road losses at Davidson (69-87) and at Georgia Southern. Charleston was favored in three of those four games.

This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - off 2 or more upset consecutive losses as a home favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Roll with Samford Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -1.5

The Pennsylvania Quakers should be a much bigger home favorite tonight. This team is in the midst of their best run of the season, and they make for a solid play here Monday.

Despite being an underdog in each of their last three games, the Quakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS. They picked up impressive road wins over Columbia and Cornell before topping a very good St. Joseph's team at home.

Princeton is going to be very rusty heading into this one. They have not played since January 14th, which was more than two weeks ago. That is clearly going to work against them tonight.

The Quakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Penn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. The Quakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Penn is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings with Princeton. Take Pennsylvania Monday.

20* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Hornets +2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They are an underdog and shouldn't be tonight. This team has suffered several close losses all season, but they're in line for a victory Sunday.

New Orleans just beat Orlando 93-67 two nights ago in their last game. This is a team that is taking out their frustration from so many close losses! They will not be denied tonight, and look for the Hornets to go on a mini following this victory.

Atlanta is 11-23 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

FREE Pro Bowl Pick: NFC -5.5

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -9

The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the league. Sacramento is 6-13 this season, and they've lost three straight by 33, 12 and 29 points, respectively. I like them to lose by double-digits again tonight against Utah.

The Jazz are 8-3 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points/game on average. They should have no problem winning by 10-plus against the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

This play falls into a system that is 52-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Roll with the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5

The Knicks are showing awesome value Saturday. They played the Miami Heat very tough last night with Carmelo Anthony, and I fully expect them to beat the Houston Rockets tonight. They actually play as a team without Anthony, so it's not surprising that they are succesful.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. They are actually winning in this spot 113.4 to 107.1 on average. Also, the Knicks are a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Take this 20-0 system straight to the bank. Bet New York Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +6

Iowa State was beating Kansas almost the entire way the first time they played them this season. That game was in Kansas, but ISU was crushed over the final 10 minutes and eventually lost 73-82. I like their chances to get revenge at home tonight.

ISU is 14-6 on the season and one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has recruited talent on this team that stacks up against the big boys; North Carolina and Duke. ISU is 10-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game.

The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. This is a perfect 12-0 ATS System backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Knicks/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The New York Knicks are going to be without two starters and two key offensive pieces tonight. Leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23.6 PPG) and starting PG Baron Davis are both out tonight as they deal with wrist and back injuries, respectively. Points are going to be hard to come by for New York without these two.

Miami is likely going to be without Dwayne Wade once again tonight as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. I expect the Heat to win this game, but it will be because of a great defensive effort against the short-handed Knicks. Miami has had trouble scoring of late, putting up just 91.7 points/game in their last three. But they are stopping opponents with ease, yielding only 90.6 points/game in their last five.

New York was having a hard time scoring even with Anthony. They are putting up just 94.5 points/game on the season. Their defense is improved though, especially on the road. The Knicks are scoring 93.7 points/game and allowing 91.8 points/game in road games for an average combined score of 185.5 points/game. New York is 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season.

New York is 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Knicks and Heat combined for 177 and 181 points in their final two meetings last season, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +16

The Philadelphia 76ers are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but the odds are finally starting to catch up to them. Philly opened 11-2 ATS through their first 13 games as they flew under the radar. The 76ers are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last 5, losing to the Nets 90-97 as an 11-point favorite last time out.

There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have struggled in the early going. The good news is that because of their struggles, the betting public is off of them. This provides us with some excellent line value on the Bobcats going forward, especially tonight as a ridiculous 16-point underdog. They can get blown out and still cover this monster spread.

The Bobcats are 11-1 (92%) ATS in their last 12 road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. They are only losing by 5.1 points/game on average in this spot. The Bobcats are a superb 13-1 (93%) ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are actually winning in this spot by 4.9 points/game. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.

15* Ivy League PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +6

This is one of the most underrated rivalries in all sports. When Harvard and Yale get after it, the intensity level is as high as you will find. That's why I'll side with home underdog Yale to cover this generous spread against an overrated Harvard squad that should not be favored.

These are two very evenly-matched teams. Harvard returned 5 starters this season and is off to a 16-2 start. Yale returned 4 starters this year and has opened 12-4. Harvard won at home 78-75 last year, while Yale won at home 70-69. As you can see, the two meetings were decided by a combined 4 points, and I fully expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

Yale has been absolutely destroying its opponents at home this season. The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 at home, scoring 82.7 points/game on 51.0 percent shooting while allowing just 60.8 points/game on 38.8 percent shooting. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.9 points/game at home this year.

Harvard is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. The Crimson are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Harvard is 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Take Yale Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The Clippers are coming off a grueling 91-96 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They'll be moving at a much slower pace in this one as they play the second of a back-to-back and control the tempo at home.

The Clippers are 6-4 to the UNDER in all home games this season. They are scoring 99.3 points/game and allowing 93.2 points/game for an average combined score of 192.5 points/game. As you can see, that average is slightly below the posted total tonight.

The real value comes in when you look at the numbers Memphis has posted on the road. The Grizzlies are 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season. They are scoring just 85.4 points/game on the road and allowing 91.6 points/game for an average combined score of 177.0 points/game. As you can see, that numbers is 16 points lower than the posted total tonight.

Memphis is 13-1 to the UNDER in their last 14 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Clippers are 8-0 to the UNDER in their last 8 home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game. These two trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes should not be an underdog in this game to overrated USC. The Trojans are constantly overvalued just because they are such a popular school. In fact, my math model shows that the Buffaloes should be roughly a 4.5-point favorite in this one.

Colorado has been under the radar all season. The Buffaloes are 13-6 on the year, including 9-6 ATS in all lined games, including 5-2 ATS in road lined games. This team is outscoring their opponents by 7.8 points/game on average. The Buffaloes score 69.8 points/game behind 45.2 percent shooting while allowing just 62.2 points/game on 39.2 percent shooting.

USC is clearly in a rebuilding year. The Trojans are just 5-15 on the season, including 7-12 ATS in lined games. Worse yet, USC is 3-8 SU & 1-9 ATS at home this season. This team simply doesn't have any offense as they score just 54.2 points/game. USC enters this contest on an eight-game losing streak and it is 0-7 in conference play. The fact that the Trojans are still favored just shows how overvalued they really are.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against a favorite (USC) - after 6 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. The Trojans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games dating back to last year. Roll with Colorado Thursday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -17.5

The Virginia Cavaliers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. This ACC title contender will have no problem making easy work of conference bottom feeder Boston College tonight. My math model shows the Cavaliers should win by 24-plus tonight.

Virginia is 15-3 this season and outscoring opponents by 14.1 points/game. The Cavaliers are 9-1 at home, outscoring foes by 18.2 points/game. Their only losses have come against TCU by 2, at Duke by 3 and vs. Virginia Tech by 2. They are coming off a loss to the Hokies, so there's no question this team is going to be ready to go tonight.

Boston College is just 7-12 on the season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road this year, losing by a whopping 13.0 points/game. They lost at NC State by 14 and vs. Wake Forest by 15 in their last two games, respectively. This will be their toughest ACC game yet aside from a 23-point loss at North Carolina.

The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Virginia is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off an upset loss as a favorite. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Thursday.

20* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors are in a great spot tonight. They are highly motivated from three straight losses by a combined 11 points. Plus, they catch Portland on a second of a back-to-back and playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Golden State will be the more rested team tonight, and they'll be able to bring more energy to the floor while also playing with more passion to try and put an end to this recent skid. The Warriors will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Warriors have had the Blazers' numbers in recent years. Golden State has won three straight over Portland. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Warriors, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Golden State.

The Warriors have won the last two meetings in this series by 24 and 21 points, respectively. Portland just hasn't been able to keep up with these young, fresh legs that the Warriors offer. Look for Golden State to run them out of the building tonight. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama -4.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the real deal this season. They have played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country thus far. The Tide have managed a 13-6 record against this schedule while outscoring opponents by 9.1 points/game on average.

South Carolina is getting way too much respect with this line tonight. The Gamecocks are just 8-10 on the season despite playing the 174th-toughest schedule in the country. They stand no chance of keeping this one close tonight.

Alabama is going to be highly motivated to get back into the win column tonight following three straight losses. Those three setbacks came against the other three best teams in the SEC at Mississippi State (52-56, vs. Vanderbilt (59-69), and at Kentucky (71-77). After playing that daunting schedule, Alabama will feel like South Carolina is a high school team. They'll make easy work of the Gamecocks.

The Gamecocks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. South Carolina is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Gamecocks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Crimson Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with Alabama Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +12

Sure, the New Jersey Nets are just 5-13 on the season, but a big reason for that is the schedule they have faced thus far. The Nets have played 11 road games compared to 7 home games. According to a source that I use, the Nets have played the second-toughest schedule in the league. New Jersey is clearly undervalued because of this.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Philly has opened 12-5 this season while blowing many teams out in the process. But the biggest reason for this is their schedule. According to a source I use, the 76ers have played the third-easiest schedule in the league thus far. They are overvalued right now.

New Jersey just played Chicago on the road last time out. The Bulls are the best team in the league according to a source I use, and the Nets lost to the Bulls by 15 points. New Jersey is now battle-tested and won't be afraid to go into Philly and take on another quality team tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 85 points or less. Take the Nets Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo +8.5

The Toledo Rockets are getting no respect from the oddsmakers or the betting public tonight. I'll gladly back this underrated MAC squad as a big underdog to the overrated Miami (Ohio) Redhawks tonight.

While Toledo is just 9-10 on the season, the Rockets are actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points/game. They are shooting 45.3 percent from the floor and allowing 42.2 percent shooting.

Miami (Ohio) is off to a woeful 5-12 start in what has been a rebuilding year for them. The Redhawks are getting outscored by 4.1 points/game on the season, and they have no business being this heavily-favored tonight.

The Redhawks are 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Miami (Ohio) is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a 16-1 (94%) system backing Toledo. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -5.5

St. Bonaventure is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They are a much better team than Rhode Island, which continues to get too much respect. St. Bonaventure is 10-7 this season while Rhode Island is 3-17. The Bonnies have actually played a tougher schedule than the Rams as well.

The Bonnies are outscoring opponents by 5.9 points/game this season. Their strength is a defense that gives up just 62.7 points/game on 41.4 percent shooting. They are also scoring 68.6 points/game on a respectable 45.3 percent shooting.

The Rams are getting outscored by 7.9 points/game this season. Their weakness is a defense that allows 75.4 points/game and 49.0 percent shooting. Rhode Island is scoring 67.5 points/game, but they are only connecting on 40.1 percent of their shots.

These teams have faced five common opponents this season. St. Bonaventure is outscoring those five teams 68.2 to 62.6, or by an average of 5.6 points/game. Rhode Island is getting outscored 61.6 to 71.6 by those same five teams, or by an average of 10.0 points/game. Common opponents is a great way to compare teams.

The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. Rhode Island is 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Rams are 0-6 ATS as a home underdog or pick this season. These three trends make for a 19-0 system backing the Bonnies. Take St. Bonaventure Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 187.5

I anticipate a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams come in tired after playing last night, so this will be the second of a back-to-back for each squad. Look for the tempo to be slow and the points to be hard to come by against two great half-court defenses.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Memphis' eight road games this season. The Grizzlies are scoring just 85.6 points/game while allowing only 90.9 points/game away from home. That's an average combined score of 176.5 points/game. Portland is only giving up 93.6 points/game in all games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 66-26 (71.7%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after a close win by 3 points or less. Memphis used up a lot of energy erasing a 16-point deficit in the 4th quarter last night to come back and beat the Warriors 91-90.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 12-2 to the UNDER in their last 14 following six or more consecutive wins. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Portland. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +8

The Iowa State Cyclones remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Cyclones are off to a 14-5 start this season and 4-2 in Big 12 play, which includes blowout road wins at Texas A&M (74-50) and at Texas Tech (76-52). Their only conference losses have come at home against Missouri 69-76 and at Kansas 73-82 in a game they led most the way.

Iowa State already won the first meeting with Texas 77-71 in their Big 12 opener at home. The Cyclones shot 51.1 percent from the field while limiting the Longhorns to 40.7 percent shooting. Five ISU players scored in double-figures, led by Chris Babb's 17 points which included a 5-of-9 performance from 3-point range.

Texas simply gets too much respect with their name recognition. This is a team in rebuilding mode with no returning starters from last year. As a result, the Longhorns are a sluggish 12-7 this season, including 5-9 against the spread. They have lost three straight coming into this one.

The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cyclones are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Longhorns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Texas. Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Indiana looks to open 6-0 at home for the first time since 2002-03 on Tuesday night when it tries to snap a five-game skid in this series with the Orlando Magic, so payback will be on their minds as well.

Despite having two days of rest since defeating the Lakers 92-80 on Friday, Orlando set franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston last night. While the Pacers have lost their last three at home to the Magic, they have never lost four in a row at home to Orlando.

Indiana (11-4) is off to its best start in eight seasons despite playing only five home games, tied with Cleveland for fewest in the league. The Pacers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. They have won five of their last six overall, including a big road win at the Los Angeles Lakers two days ago.

The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central. Orlando is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Indiana is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight against overrated Memphis. The Warriors are finally back to full strength with the return of Stephen Curry, who scored 12 points Friday after missing the previous eight games with a sprained right ankle.

So the Warriors have had two days off to prepare for the Grizzlies after last playing on Friday. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for Memphis. The Grizzlies are getting a lot of respect right now due to their 6-game winning streak, but five of those wins came against losing teams, and the other was against a Bulls team playing without MVP Derrick Rose.

The home team has won seven straight in this series. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Golden State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5

The Boston Celtics should not be an underdog at home to the Orlando Magic tonight. While Boston has struggled in the early going, this team is still fully capable of beating any team in the league. The Magic are getting way too much respect with this line Monday.

Paul Pierce certainly looked like his old self in a 100-94 win at Washington yesterday. Pierce finished with a season-high 34 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Celtics have now won two of their last three to get right back on track.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Orlando is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Celtics Monday.

15* ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +5.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are ready to hand Syracuse their second loss of the season tonight. The Orange were upset 67-58 at Notre Dame on Saturday. A big reason they lost is because they were without leading rebounder and shot blocker Fab Melo, who also won't play tonight for unspecified reasons.

The Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 15-5 on the season, including 10-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 15.6 points/game. Cincinnati has won 10 of their last 12 overall with their two losses coming by a combined five points.

The Orange are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Bearcats Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2.5

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a huge win in the Divisional Round against the hottest team in football. This team has been winning with their defense for most of the year, but their offense took a huge step last weekend by matching the Saints score for score. San Francisco would score last on an Alex Smith touchdown pass to Vernon Davis with less than 20 seconds remaining to give the 49ers a 36-32 victory.

The 49ers head into the NFC Championship with all of the confidence in the world. They should be more than a 2.5-point favorite over the New York Giants, who are also coming off a big win at Green Bay. While the Packers had the best record in the NFL this year, they certainly looked vulnerable down the stretch. That was largely due to their league-worst defense, which let the Giants do basically whatever they wanted to.

San Francisco has the kind of defense that will give Eli Manning and company fits. Manning has been great on third downs during their four-game winning streak, but the 49ers only give up 35.2 percent conversions on third downs this season. San Francisco will force the Giants into tougher third downs by stopping the run, and they will make New York punt a lot more than they've been accustomed to of late.

The 49ers have been unstoppable at home all season. San Francisco is 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in nine home games, scoring 28.6 points and allowing 13.2 points. Their only loss came by a field goal in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by a whopping 15.4 points/game at home this year. Considering they have not lost against the spread at home this season, I'm going to ride that trend to yet another victory this weekend.

San Francisco already beat New York 27-20 at home earlier this season on November 13th. They jumped out to a 27-13 lead on a 17-yard touchdown run from Kendall Hunter early in the fourth quarter and never looked back. Frank Gore only carried the ball six times in that game before getting hurt, and now healthy, he will make a huge difference. San Francisco also picked off Manning twice in the win.

As mentioned before, the 49ers are 8-0 ATS at home this season. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game. These four trends make for a perfect 26-0 system backing San Francisco. Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* Ravens/Pats NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +9

The New England Patriots earned the top seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record in the the regular season. Baltimore earned the No. 2 seed as they tied for the second-best record in the AFC. It's only fitting that these two teams meet up in the AFC Championship in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire. Look for this one to come down to the very last possession either way.

New England is way overvalued heading into this game simply by the nature they beat the Denver Broncos last week. Baltimore didn't look all that impressive against Houston, but I picked the Texans to cover the spread and that team is the most underrated in the league in my opinion. So it was actually a great win for Baltimore, whereas New England beat one of the most overrated teams in the Broncos.

Baltimore has played New England very tough in recent years. They have had the defense that can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack, and that has not changed this season. The Ravens ranked No. 3 in the NFL in total defense this season at 288.9 yards/game. They forced four turnovers in their 20-13 victory over the Texans last week, time and time coming up with huge stops down the stretch.

While New England has won three of their last four meetings with Baltimore, all three of those wins came by six points or less, including two by a field goal. The Ravens had the only blowout during this stretch with a 33-14 win at New England in the playoffs at the end of the 2009-10 season. The Ravens held the Pats to just 196 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. In fact, the Patriots have not exceeded 27 points or 400 yards in any of their last six meetings with Baltimore, and they are only averaging 22.5 points and 283.3 yards/game in those six contests.

The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Ravens are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game. Look for Joe Flacco to have a huge day against this New England defense that ranks 31st in total yards allowed (411.1) and 31st against the pass (293.9). Take Baltimore Sunday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +1.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini should not be an underdog at home today to the Wisconsin Badgers. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers getting Illinois at this kind of price in a game I have them winning outright with ease.

Home-court advantage has always been huge in the Big Ten, and that's the case again this season, especially for the home team tonight. Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.8 points/game. The Illini even beat Ohio State in their last home game, which is the best team in the Big Ten as I see it.

The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Fighting Illini are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Illinois Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They made a rare National TV appearance last night on ESPN, and erased a double-digit deficit to come all the way back and beat the Chris Paul-less Los Angeles Clippers. Kevin Love hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Look for the Timberwolves to come out sluggish tonight against the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, the Jazz will come out motivated following a rare home loss Thursday on National TV to the Dallas Mavericks. Utah is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points/game.

Utah has won three straight home meetings with Minnesota by 15, 8 and 22 points, respectively. The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8

The New Jersey Nets are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference at 12-3, they really aren't blowing out opponents. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.5 points/game overall and by 2.2 points/game on the road.

The New Jersey Nets have played much better of late. They have recent wins over both Phoenix and Golden State, and they also played Denver and the L.A. Clippers tough on the road. This team is finally hitting its stride and should show great improvement the rest of the way as Deron Williams and company continue to mesh.

The Nets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. New Jersey is 13-3 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nets Saturday.

15* Mizzou/Baylor Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri +5

I believe the Missouri Tigers are one of the top three teams in the country. I also believe that Baylor is way overvalued after their long unbeaten run to open the season, which came mostly against soft competition. Missouri is the real deal, while Baylor is a bunch of fakers. That will show on the court Saturday.

Both teams enter this huge showdown at 17-1 on the season. There's no question in my mind that the Tigers have played the tougher schedule. The Bears were exposed last time out with a 74-92 loss at Kansas as their true colors showed through. Don't get me wrong, this is still a quality team, but there's no doubt that Missouri is superior after watching both teams play on several occasions this year.

The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Baylor is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* Lakers/Magic ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 181.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic should have not problem combining to score more than the posted total tonight. Oddsmakers have simply set the bar too low for a pair of 10-win teams that will light it up offensively tonight. Both squads take good shots as each is hitting 45.5 percent from the field this season.

Orlando is averaging 97.3 points/game while allowing 92.4 points/game this season. That's an average combined score of 189.7 points/game. The Magic like to push the tempo a little bit, and playing at home, they will control the tempo tonight. The Lakers give up 98.8 points/game on the road this season, and they are combining with their opponents to average 190.1 points/game away from home.

This play falls into a system that is 44-16 (73.3%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.

The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 Friday games. These three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 186

While many teams in this league have struggled offensively because of the lockout, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers have not. Chicago is averaging 95.1 points/game while Cleveland is putting up 96.4 points/game.

Better yet, the Cavaliers are putting up 101.0 points/game at home giving up 98.0 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 199.0 points/game. The Bulls are scoring 97.6 points/game on the road and allowing 94.1 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 191.7 points/game. Given these averages, you can see why there is solid value with this OVER tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 43-14 (75.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - an excellent defensive team (<=88 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Wizards have played much better of late after a very slow start. Washington is coming off a huge 105-102 home win over the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. That victory showed what they are capable of, and I look for the Wizards to come in with a lot of confidence against the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are off to a solid 10-5 start, but they are only outscoring opponents by 5.6 points/game this season, including 4.0 points/game on the road. The Wizards are only getting outscored by 5.1 points/game at home. There is at least a couple points of value with the home underdog tonight.

This is also a huge look-ahead spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Denver plays New York tomorrow. The Nuggets have several players on their team that were in a blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York. These Denver players certainly want revenge on their former team, and will be looking forward to that tomorrow. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. Because they are not a flashy team, the betting public is off of them as they continue to stay out of the media. But this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, and they have been nearly unstoppable at home.

Utah is off to a 9-4 start this season. The Jazz have been red hot of late, going 8-1 in their last nine games overall. Utah is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 98.7 to 89.4 or by an average of 9.3 points/game. Their only home loss came in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Dallas Mavericks are clearly down this season and not nearly as motivated as they were last year when they won the NBA Championship. The Mavs are just 8-7 on the year, including back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams. This is a tough spot for Dallas as it will be the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Mavericks are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The home team is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series, and Utah is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Dallas. Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* UNC/VA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 143

The UNC Tar Heels and the Virginia Tech Hokies are each coming off poor offensive performances. I look for both to try and get out in transition a little more tonight to find easy baskets that just haven't been there in recent games. This one should have no problem sailing OVER the posted total by game's end.

North Carolina averages 85.2 points/game while giving up 67.2 points/game for an average combined score of 152.4 points/game. That's why it was so shocking to see them score just 57 points in a 57-90 blowout loss at Florida State last weekend. After such a poor offensive performance, you can bet head coach Roy Williams will have his team ready to go off on the scoreboard tonight.

Virginia Tech has been held to less than 60 points in each of their last three games during a 3-game losing streak. "We're not playing fast enough," coach Seth Greenberg said during the ACC's weekly teleconference. "We've got to get out in transition. Our wing guys aren't running hard enough." From those comments, it's easy to see that Greenberg will have his team looking to run a lot more tonight.

VA Tech is 9-1 to the OVER after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less since 1997. The Hokies are 6-0 to the OVER in home games after a game with 9 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. These two trends make for a 15-1 (94%) system backing the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.