Winning Sports Picks

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in this AFC East showdown.  This has been a very high-scoring series in recent years and I look for that to continue in their first meeting of 2014.

Indeed, the OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.  They have combined to score 48 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 51 or more in five of the last six.

The Patriots are back. They went to a no-huddle, up-tempo offense against the Bengals and have put together their two most complete performances of the season as a result. They beat the Bengals 43-17 while putting up 505 yards of total offense. Then last week, they topped the Bills 37-22 while racking up 396 yards.

Tom Brady has been much more efficient in the new-look offense. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Bengals. Brady went 27 of 37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Bills last week. Those are two of the better defenses in the league, and Brady was able to do whatever he wanted to against them.

The Patriots have two key injuries that will also favor the over.  They lost running back Steven Ridley for the season, so they will certainly be putting the ball in the air a lot in this one.  They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Jarrod Mayo to a season-ending injury last week.  The Jets should have success running the football because of it.

New England is 6-0 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last three years.  New England is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  New England is 12-1 to the OVER after having won two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  These five trends combine for a 38-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest Thursday night between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.  These are two teams with very good defenses and limited offenses who will find points very hard to come by.

Virginia Tech’s defense is going to be able to stop Pittsburgh’s offense. The Hokies have been tremendous against the run in allowing just 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry against teams who average 191 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, holding them to 82 yards and 1.5 per carry below their season average.

Pittsburgh is a team that relies exclusively on the run. It averages 46 rushing attempts and 244 yards per game on the ground compared to 24 pass attempts and 161 yards per game through the air. Their one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the football in this one.

The Panthers have given up 25 or fewer points in all six games they have played.  They are allowing just 19.0 points and 277.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense.  The Hokies have put up decent numbers offensively, but they've been up against six teams whose defenses average giving up 29.6 points and 415 yards per game.  They haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the one they will be up against Thursday.

Virginia Tech has played four elite offensive football teams this year, which makes their numbers defensively all the more impressive.  They combined with Ohio State for 56 points, East Carolina for 49 points, Georgia Tech for 51 points, and North Carolina for 51 points.  There's no question this game will stay below the 45.5-point total against a much worse offense and a much better defense in Pittsburgh.

In its last three games, Pittsburgh has combined with Iowa for 44 points, with Akron for 31 points, and with Virginia for 43 points as all three games have gone UNDER the total.  Look for this contest against the Hokies to take on a similar tone as they have a much better defense than those three teams, and only a slightly better offense.

Last year, Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh 19-9 at home for 28 combined points when the game total was set at 43.  This was precisely the defensive battle that the score would indicate as well.  The Hokies held the Panthers to 11 first downs and 210 total yards.  Virginia Tech managed 17 first downs and just 315 total yards in the victory.

Pittsburgh is 34-18 to the UNDER in its last 52 games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 24-9-1 in Hokies last 34 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Panthers last five games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Orioles/Royals Game 4 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -117

The Kansas City Royals have tied an MLB record for most consecutive wins to start a postseason at seven.  I look for them to break that record and to punch their tickets to the World Series with another victory in Game 4 tonight.

This series was essentially won last night when the Royals didn't need a hit to knock in a run as they scored on a groundout and a sacrifice fly.  Their starting pitching was good, and their bullpen didn't allow a hit.  This is just the formula that they have been using all postseason.  Simply find a way to win.  That's what they'll do again tonight.

Jason Vargas has been solid this season for the Royals.  The left-hander is 11-10 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.259 WHIP over 31 starts.  In his lone postseason start, he gave up just two earned runs and four base runners over six innings of a 3-2 win at the Angels.

Vargas has owned the Orioles throughout his career, posting a 1.94 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Miguel Gonzalez has struggled against Kansas City, going 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts.  In his last two starts against the Royals, he has given up nine earned runs over 10 2/3 innings.

Vargas is 13-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last three seasons.  The Royals are 48-23 in their last 71 games overall.  Kansas City is 10-1 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Royals Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +103

The Kansas City Royals simply cannot lose right now.  They have all of the momentum on their side, and I have been riding them with a ton of success this postseason.  I see no reason to stop in Game 3 as they return home in front of a raucous crowd looking to go ahead 3-0 in this series.

This is a pretty evenly-matched game on the mound between Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.71 ERA) and Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.09 ERA) tonight.  While Chen has slightly better numbers, I really like the way these starters are trending here of late.

Guthrie has gone 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just one earned run over 20 1/3 innings against the Red Sox, Tigers & White Sox in pressure-packed games.  Meanwhile, Chen is 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Chen gave up five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in his only postseason start against Detroit on October 3rd.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.  Guthrie is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games as an underdog.  Kansas City is 47-23 in its last 70 games overall.  The Royals are 27-12 in Guthrie's last 39 home starts.  Kansas City is 18-6 in Guthrie's last 24 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Royals in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* UL-Lafayette/Texas State No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -2

I’ve been really impressed with the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) in 2014 in just their third season as an FBS member and their second in the Sun Belt Conference. This is a team that went 6-6 last year with five of their wins coming against FBS foes. They certainly have a shot at bowl eligibility this year and are a dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt.

While the Bobcats’ three wins aren’t all that impressive aside from the 37-34 win at Tulsa as 3-point underdogs, their two losses say a lot about what kind of team this is. They only lost 21-35 at home to a very good Navy team while racking up 442 yards of total offense in the defeat. More promising yet was their 35-42 loss at Illinois as 11-point underdogs as they gained 475 yards in that game.

As you can see, Texas State has a very good offense, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering it returned eight starters on this side of the ball from last year. It is putting up 38.6 points and 497.8 yards per game on the season. Tyler Jones is completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,149 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores. Terrance Franks (408 yards, 7.8/carry, 6 TD) and Robert Lowe (402 yards, 5.9/carry, 2 TD) form a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Many expected Louisiana to win the Sun Belt this year. That looks like a long shot now after what this team has shown so far. The Rajin’ Cajuns’ only wins this season have both come at home against Southern (45-6) as a 38.5-point favorite and Georgia State (34-31) as a 16.5-point favorite. That half-point cover against Southern was the only cover for them all season. They have lost to LA Tech (20-48) at home, and Ole Miss (15-56) and Boise State (9-34) on the road.

I realize that Louisiana crushed Texas State last year by a final of 48-24. However, that couldn’t have been a better spot for the Rajin’ Cajuns as they were coming off a bye week and had a bye week on deck. It’s clear that the Rajin’ Cajuns are way down this season compared to last year, while the Bobcats are vastly improved. The Bobcats should have no problem moving the football and putting up points on a Louisiana defense that is giving up 35.0 points and 458.0 yards per game on the season.

Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) – after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 94-48 (66.2%) ATS since 1992. Louisiana is 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. Lafayette is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or less turnovers over the past two years. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Texas State Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers (3-2) are a couple blown second-half leads to the Bears and Cardinals away from being undefeated this year. They have rebounded nicely over the last two weeks with a 26-21 win over the Eagles and a 22-17 victory over the Chiefs. Both games were dominant performances by the 49ers. They outgained the Eagles 407-213 and forced four turnovers, while also outgaining the Chiefs 357-265.

Many thought that their defense would be down this season, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth. They are still very much getting it done on that side of the ball. Indeed, the 49ers rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 282.8 yards per game this season.

St. Louis has taken a massive step back on that side of the ball this season. It only has one sack through four games, and a big reason for that is the injury to defensive end Chris Long. The Rams rank 13th in total defense this year, giving up 344.8 yards per game. They are also allowing a whopping 29.8 points per game this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league.

Frank Gore voiced his frustration after the 49ers’ 1-2 start. This team was built behind a physical running game and a defense. The 49ers have gotten back to their old ways the past two weeks, rushing for 218 yards on the Eagles and 171 on the Chiefs. Gore accounted for 119 yards on 24 carries against the Eagles and 107 yards on 18 carries against the Chiefs.

After back-to-back strong performances on the ground, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in rushing at 145.0 yards per game. The biggest weakness for the Rams’ defense is against the run.  They rank 31st in the league in rushing defense, allowing 152.5 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.

San Francisco has dominated this series with St. Louis, going 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. Last year, it put together a pair of blowout victories with a 35-11 win on the road and a 23-13 home victory. The 49ers outscored the Rams a combined 58-24 in the two victories. The defense limited the Rams’ offense to an average of 250 yards per game in the two wins as well.

The 49ers are 8-1 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 Monday games. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC West opponents. St. Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

15* Giants/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3

These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Few teams have played as well as the New York Giants over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles have not looked very impressive over the last three weeks and are fortunate to be 4-1 on the season. They have won three games by 6 points or less, and they lost to the 49ers 21-26 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Only beating the Redskins 37-34 at home back in Week 3 looks like a really poor performance right now because they are 1-4 on the season. In that loss to the 49ers, the Eagles were outgained 213-407 for the game. They got three non-offensive touchdowns against the 49ers, and then came back back with two more last week against the Rams.

That gives the Eagles a whopping seven non-offensive touchdowns for the season, which is by far the most in the league and will not continue at nearly this pace.  They were outgained by the Redskins by 132 yards and by the Rams by 114 yards. So, over the last three weeks combined, the Eagles have been outgained by a total of 440 yards. 

They have been outgained by more than 200 yards on the season, which isn't the sign of a 4-1 team.  They have also really struggled in the red zone as their spread offense just doesn't get it done when they get inside the opponent's 20-yard line.  Indeed, they have scored touchdowns on just 6 of their 16 trips into the red zone this season.

Nick Foles is being exposed this season.  He played well behind a dominant offensive line last year that saw all five starters start in all 16 games.  Now, the Eagles have really been beat up along the offensive line as they are down at least two starters.  Foles and the offense have struggled to move the football, especially the last two weeks.  Their rushing attack was 1st in the league last year, but just 23rd in 2014, averaging a mere 98.6 yards per game.  That can also be attributed to the struggles and injuries along the O-Line.

The Giants have won three straight games by double-digits. They dominated Houston in a 30-17 home win, went on the road and beat Washington 45-14, and then toppled Atlanta 30-20 at home last week. The new West Coast offense has really come alive with an average of 35 points per game over the last three weeks. Eli Manning and company are hitting on all cylinders right now and should be able to do what they want against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 28th in the league, giving up an average of 406.2 yards per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between the Giants and Eagles. The road team has actually won five of the last seven meetings outright while going a combined 5-1-1 against the spread. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series as well.

New York is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. awful passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game. The Giants are 33-12 ATS in their last 45 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. New York is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 October games. The Giants are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. Philadelphia is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 when playing the role of the favorite for the second week in a row.  Take the Giants Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Giants to +3 if you have the option.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7.5

The Raiders have fired yet another head coach in Dennis Allen. He simply did not get the job done as this team went just 4-12 in his first two seasons, and then opened 0-4 this year. The veteran Tony Sparano, who took a 1-15 Miami team to the playoffs in his first year as head coach there, takes over. Any time a team goes through a coaching change like this, they usually respond in that first game back.

This was the perfect timing for the Raiders to make that change considering they had a bye last week. That gives Sparano a chance to work with the team for two full weeks. I look for them to come out and play their best game of the season this week, especially since they won’t have any problem getting motivated to face their division rivals in the Chargers.

Oakland has played San Diego very tough over the past four seasons. Indeed, it has gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Chargers. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Even the four losses have been relatively close as all four have come by 13 points or less. The Raiders beat the Chargers 27-17 at home loss year as 5.5-point underdogs, and now they are catching 7.5 points in their 2014 home meeting.

San Diego is clearly overvalued right now due to starting a perfect 5-0 against the spread through its first five games. The betting public has taken notice, and has been pounding the Chargers in recent weeks. Oddsmakers have had no other choice but to inflate their line this week knowing that everyone wants to bet the Chargers, while nobody wants to bet the Raiders right now. That’s indicated by the fact that roughly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Chargers in this one, providing some nice line value with the Raiders.  Also, this line was San Diego -3 to open the season.

Here are some interesting trends backing the Raiders.  Winless teams in Week 6 or later in the role of the underdog have covered 63% of the time.  Winless teams off a bye are 29-11 ATS in the last 40 instances.  If you bet $1,000/game on all NFL road favorites of 7 or more points over the last 20 years, you would be down $63,000.

Plays on home underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a terrible team (winning 25% or fewer games) playing a team with a winning record are 117-63 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 October games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Raiders at +7.  You don't need to buy it to 7.5.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +3.5

It has been feast or famine for the Miami Dolphins (2-2) in 2014. They could not have looked better in their 33-20 home win over New England in the opener as they held the Patriots to just 315 total yards. They also looked great last time out in a 38-14 win against Oakland in London, outgaining the Raiders 435-317 for the game while forcing four turnovers.

I tend to believe that the Dolphins are somewhere in between their performances against the Patriots and Raiders and their blowout losses to the Bills (10-29) and Chiefs (15-34). I would lean toward they are more the team that beat the Raiders and Patriots in blowout fashion as well. They certainly should be putting their best foot forward on Sunday considering they are coming off their bye week.

One key coaching edge the Dolphins have in this one is that head coach Joe Philbin was the former offensive coordinator of the Packers. He knows exactly what they like to run, and he’ll be very prepared to stop it. Meanwhile, Philbin has handed over the play-calling duties to Bill Lazor this season, the former offensive coordinator under Chip Kelly and the Eagles last year. So, the Packers aren’t familiar with the system that Philbin’s team is running. Having two weeks to prepare for the Packers is even bigger for the Dolphins since Philbin knows that offense inside and out.

I believe Green Bay is being overvalued here because it is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Chicago (38-17) and Minnesota (42-10). That win over Chicago was nowhere near the blowout the final score would indicate. In fact, the Packers were actually outgained 358-496 by the Bears in that contest and probably should not have won. Then, they got to play the Vikings last week, who were starting third-stringer Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The Packers have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS while getting outgained 278.7 to 415.7, or by an average of 137 yards per game. They are a completely different team when they get away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.  Green Bay has been outgained by more than 300 yards on the season, while Miami has actually outgained opponents by over 100 yards this year.  This shows that Miami is arguably the better team.

Another factor to keep in mind here is the heat in Miami.  Temperatures are expected to be around 91 and humid with a heat index of 95 for Sunday.  The Patriots, a cold weather team, struggled in the second half against the Dolphins, getting outscored 23-0 after intermission.  The Packers, another cold weather team, figure to struggle in the second half in this heat as well.

Miami ranks 5th in the league in rushing at 142.2 yards per game.  Green Bay ranks dead last against the run, yielding 163.0 yards per game.  The Dolphins get back starting center Mike Pouncey this week from injury, which will only enhance the performance of their offensive line.  Look for Miami to control the time of possession with their ability to run the football.  That will really wear down this shaky Packers' defense and will have a really big impact in the warm weather, especially in the second half.

The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Dolphins at +3.  If you get 2.5 buy it to 3 if you have the option, but don't buy it to 3.5.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +7

The Panthers certainly have had a pair of uncharacteristic performances in their blowout losses at the hands of the Steelers and Ravens. However, they have been very solid in their other three games with a 20-14 win at Tampa Bay without Cam Newton, a 24-7 home win over Detroit that looks really good right now, and a 31-24 home win over Chicago last week. I tend to believe that the Panthers are closer to the team that they were last year when they went 12-4 rather than the one that was blown out in consecutive weeks.

I have no doubt that Cincinnati was overvalued after a 3-0 start that made most media outlets peg the Bengals as the best team in the league. They couldn’t be further from it, and that showed last week in a 17-43 road loss to a New England team that isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past. The Bengals gave up 505 total yards to the Patriots in the loss.

Cincinnati was overvalued as a favorite last week in New England, and it is once again being overvalued as a 7-point home favorite in this contest. These teams are very similar in that they rely on physical defenses. I just believe that Carolina’s stop unit is better than that of Cincinnati, and that will show this week.

The Bengals rank a woeful 27th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 390.8 yards per game.  Despite being 3-1, they have actually been outgained by nearly 100 yards on the season, which is a stat that shows they are not as good as their record would indicate.  They are also overvalued due to their success at home over the past few seasons.

Cincinnati is expected to be without its best players in wide receiver A.J. Green this week.  Green is a matchup nightmare and worth more points to the Bengals than perhaps any other receiver in the league would be to their respective teams.  Sure, Calvin Johnson is up there, but the Lions have a plethora of other weapons.  The Bengals do not, and the loss of Green will be felt in this one as the Panthers can stack the box and stop the run, because they know Andy Dalton cannot beat them without Green.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. While the betting public is being quick to overlook Cincinnati’s blowout loss to New England, it is not overlooking Carolina’s two blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers. That’s why there is clearly value with the Panthers, as this trend suggests.

Carolina is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 130 or more yards per game. Cincinnati is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. The Bengals are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss by 21 or more points, coming back to lose by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

Note - I'd still recommend a play on the Panthers at +6.5.  I will be buying it to 7, and recommend you do the same if you have the option.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -2.5

New England proved that it was far from done for last week with a 43-17 home win over Cincinnati. Everyone was writing Tom Brady and the offense off, and all they did was rack up 505 total yards against one of the best defenses in the league. Look for this game to be the turning point for the offense and the team as a whole. The way they rallied around one another, the Patriots are going to be a scary bunch going forward.

The key last week for the Patriots is that they went to a hurry-up, no-huddle offense to find a rhythm and keep the Bengals guessing.  They ran a whopping 82 plays, which is like the Oregon Ducks of college football.  The even ran the ball 46 times against Cincinnati.  This is the kind of offense you are going to see from Brady and company going forward as it's clearly what they have to do to be most effective.

The Bills are coming off a big win at Detroit that has them overvalued here. Had they not beaten the Lions, they would be more than a 2.5-point underdog in this one. They did not really deserve to win that game as the Lions missed three field goals, which led to the release of their kicker. This is a solid Buffalo team and one that is certainly improved, but the offensive struggles for this team will hold them back in this one.

Buffalo ranks just 26th in the league in total offense at 325.2 yards per game this season. Kyle Orton did throw for over 300 yards against the Lions, but nobody is going to mistake him for Peyton Manning. Speaking of mistakes, he also threw and interception that was returned for a touchdown. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has been known for making mistakes throughout his career. Orton hasn't magically fixed the offense, and he's not going to out-duel Tom Brady in this one.

Nobody has dominated one team quite like the Patriots. Indeed, they have gone 20-1 straight up in their last 21 meetings with the Bills. With this line set at only 2.5 points, the Patriots essentially just have to win to cover the spread. I like their chances of winning by a field goal or more and to continue the one-sided nature of this series Sunday afternoon.

New England is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. New England is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games after allowing 3 point or less in the first half of last game. The Bills are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Patriots at -3

15* Penn State/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

James Franklin has had a bye week to get his team ready for Michigan. It certainly could not have been a pleasant bye week for these Nittany Lions players as they made all kinds of mistakes in their 23-point loss to Northwestern last time out. However, I believe that performance was an aberration and not the typical effort you will see from this Penn State (4-1) team the rest of the way, especially this week.

The Nittany Lions had been very impressive prior to that game during their 4-0 start. They outgained UCF by 265 yards in their 26-24 win over in Ireland, outgained Akron by 148 yards in their 21-3 home victory, outgained Rutgers by 79 yards in their 13-10 road win, and outgained UMass by 198 yards in their 48-7 home victory. They turned the ball over twice against Northwestern, including one that was returned for a touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter. This was a 14-6 game entering the final period.

It’s amazing that Brady Hoke has kept his job with the start the Wolverines are off to this season. They have gone just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against the likes of Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. They were blown out on the road by Notre Dame 31-0, and they suffered lopsided defeats at the hands of both Utah (10-26) and Minnesota (14-30) at home.

Even their 24-26 loss at Rutgers last week was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Wolverines 476-336 for the game, or by 140 total yards. Michigan was also outgained by a whopping 202 total yards by Minnesota the week before as its offense only put up 171 yards in that 16-point loss. The Wolverines have been held to 336 or fewer yards in all four of their losses.

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Michigan offense again this week against perhaps the best defense they have seen yet. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 14.6 points and 288.8 yards per game this season to rank 9th in the country in total defense. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the superior unit as they are averaging 407.8 yards per game, while the Wolverines are only averaging 354.0 yards per game.

Making matters worse for the Michigan offense is the fact that it is going to be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season.  Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7/carry, 3 TD) broke his collarbone against Rutgers and is done for the year.  Also, second-leading rusher De'Veon Smith (282 yards, 6.0/carry, 4 TD) is dealing with an injury, though he is expected to give it a go against Penn State.  That puts even more pressure on Devin Gardner, who has already thrown seven interceptions in 120 attempts this season.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN) – with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS since 1992. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -8.5

There’s no question that Nick Saban is steaming over the loss to Ole Miss. That will be reflected in practice this week in preparation for Arkansas. Look for him to rally the troops and have the Crimson Tide coming back motivated and determined this week as all of their goals are still within their grasp despite that loss. This team is simply too talented for the Razorbacks to hang with.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Arkansas with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points per game. Five of those wins have come by 24 or more points, and the last two have resulted in 52-0 blowouts in the Crimson Tide’s favor. While the Razorbacks are a better team this year, they aren’t good enough to stay within single-digits of Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been dominant statistically this season. They average 37.0 points and 549.2 yards per game on offense, which makes this one of the most explosive units in the Saban era. While the defense is perceived to be down a notch, they are still allowing just 15.8 points and 264.8 yards per game and are only going to get better on this side of the ball as the season progresses.

Arkansas is an improved offensive team this season, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. It is giving up 25.8 points and 403.2 yards per game this season. In the opener against Auburn, the Razorbacks were beaten 21-45 as they were outgained 328-595 for the game. Alabama is every bit as good as Auburn this season, so expect a one-sided affair in this one. The Razorbacks also gave up 523 total yards to Texas A&M last time out.

Alabama is only giving up 64 yards per game and 2.6 per carry on the ground this season, so the Razorbacks won’t be able to do a whole lot defensively because they rely on the run almost exclusively.  Indeed, the Razorbacks average 317 yards on the ground and only 168 through the air.  This is the type of game where being one-dimensional is going to really cost Arkansas.

Alabama is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bret Bielema is 2-14 ATS versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game in all games he has coached.  Finally, the Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back SEC games since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa back in 2007.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Auburn/Mississippi State CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) have been arguably the most underrated team in the country up to this point. I believe they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as a 3-point home underdog to the Auburn Tigers (5-0) in this one. It makes sense because they have been down for so long, but this isn’t the same Mississippi State team of year’s past. This is Dan Mullen’s best team yet with 16 starters back, and a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

The last two wins by Mississippi State show that it is for real. It went into LSU and came away with a 34-29 victory as a 7-point underdog. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Bulldogs led 34-10 in the fourth quarter before LSU got 19 garbage points in the final period. They dominated from start to finish last week, beating Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite.

I stated last week that Dak Prescott is a guy you need to keep your eye on for the Heisman Trophy, and he had another big performance against the Aggies. He totaled five touchdowns in the win with two passing and three rushing. Prescott is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 455 yards and six scores on the season. He is a 235-pound quarterback in a running back’s body.

While I admit that Auburn has been better than I expected this season, it has done all of its damage at home. In its only road game this year, it won 20-14 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. It had no business winning that game as the Wildcats missed three field goals. They also had a touchdown pass dropped in the end zone that turned into an interception for the Tigers.

The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Last year, Mississippi State only lost 20-24 at Auburn as a 6.5-point road underdog. That effort against the eventual SEC champs showed what the Bulldogs were capable of. Now, with a much better team in 2014 and getting the Tigers at home this time around, I look for the the Bulldogs to pull off the upset this week.

Sure, Mississippi State has been torched through the air this year, but that won't come into play this week against an Auburn team that throws the ball just 34% of the time and runs it 66% of the time.  That makes this a great match-up for the Bulldogs, who are only giving up 98 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry against opponents who average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Auburn's one-dimensional offense will cost them, while Mississippi State's balanced attack (274 rypg, 267 pypg) will be tough for the Tigers to stop.

One trend that just goes to show how undervalued the Bulldogs have been is the fact that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +8

If you’ve ready anything I’ve written about TCU (4-0) before, you’ll know that they were my pick to win the Big 12 coming into the season. I was on them last week against Oklahoma, and I am taking them this week against Baylor as well. This is arguably the best team that head coach Gary Patterson has had yet. They only went 4-8 last year but were much better than that, losing by a field goal to both Baylor and Oklahoma.

In that 38-41 home loss to Baylor last year, the Horned Frogs played the Bears as good as almost anyone. They actually outgained them 410-370 for the game, but committed three turnovers that cost them the victory. The defense limited Bryce Petty to just 19 of 38 passing for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, which is no small feat. Their defense played as well against Baylor as anyone last year.

That stop unit has been a big reason for the 4-0 start this season. The Horned Frogs are only giving up 13.5 points and 279.2 yards per game this year. They actually ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense last season among conference games. This stop unit does not get enough credit, and it is fully capable of containing this high-powered Baylor offense again in 2014.

However, the biggest difference for TCU this year has been the improvement on offense. It went to a new no-huddle, spread offense, and it is getting rave reviews. The Frogs are averaging 42.7 points and 516.2 yards per game this season. They put up 37 points and 469 total yards against Oklahoma last week as Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and rushed for 77 more. Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores this year.

Baylor is a team I have backed in four of the five games it has played this year, so I have been big on the Bears as well. They have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in all games this season. However, the betting public is finally onto how good this team is, and they are finally overvalued this week as more than a touchdown favorite.

TCU is by far the best team that they have faced this year as the Bears have played an extremely soft schedule, so they aren’t battle-tested, which hurts them coming into this one.  Baylor has played the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Texas.  TCU's win over Oklahoma gives it the confidence needed to go into Baylor and pull off the upset in this one.

The Horned Frogs have really dominated this series with the Bears.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Baylor dating back to 2006.  Their two losses have come by a combined 5 points.  Back in 2012, the Horned Frogs went on the road and beat Baylor 49-21 as 6-point underdogs.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for TCU to likely win the game, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Baylor is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. good pass defenses that allow 48% completions or less. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus good defensive teams that give up 4.25 or fewer yards per play. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Baylor.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Carolina +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) are way overvalued this week off their win over Stanford last week. There are certain games where statistics can be thrown out the window, and this is one of them.  You look at the numbers and you see a great Notre Dame defense and a terrible UNC stop unit up to this point, but those are two things I'm willing to overlook because of this tough situation for the Fighting Irish.

That victory over the Cardinal sets them up for a letdown spot here. Couple that with the fact that they play No. 1 Florida State next week, and there’s almost no way they bring their best effort to the field against UNC. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Seminoles and won’t have the kind of focus it takes to win by 17-plus points against the Tar Heels.

Without question, North Carolina has been way overvalued up to this point in the season. Many thought that it would win the ACC Coastal Division this season, but that is looking like a long shot now after three straight losses, including two to ACC foes.

However, those three losses all came to very good teams in East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia Tech. They at least hung around against both Clemson and VA Tech as last week’s 17-34 find score against the Hokies was nowhere near indicative of how close the game was.  I really liked what I saw out of this UNC defense last week as they limited the Hokies to 357 yards of total offense. It just shows that the defense can be better than it was through the first four games of the season.

After going 0-5 against the spread through their first five games, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Tar Heels. They are finally undervalued now after being overvalued up to this point. It’s time to jump back on the Tar Heels, who won six of their final seven games last season to come on strong in the second half after a slow start.  I can easily foresee the same thing happening in 2014 with the talent that is on this roster.

The Fighting Irish were in a similar letdown spot earlier this season.  They were coming off a 31-0 win over Michigan in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Wolverines actually outgained them for the game.  They played Purdue next week, and I was all over the Boilermakers as 30-point underdogs.  The Fighting Irish only won that game by 16 points.  This is an even tougher spot for them because of the letdown/lookahead spot combined, and UNC is a better team than Purdue.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off four or more consecutive unders. Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) – average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last three games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) certainly were not that dominant in their first three non-conference games, but they got the job done. Their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern had many folks skeptical, but it has been proven since that Georgia Southern is no joke. With a 27-24 road win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 home win over Miami to open ACC play, it’s also clear that the Yellow Jackets are a real contender to win the Coastal Division this season.

Duke is a team I had circled coming into the year as overvalued. It certainly was overvalued heading into ACC play due to four straight wins in the non-conference over lowly teams like Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. That showed in a 10-22 road loss to Miami in its ACC opener in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils were outgained by the Hurricanes 264-426 for the game and should have lost by more.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Georgia Tech is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Duke with an average victory of 21.2 points per game. It is 18-1 the last 19 meetings as well while winning nine straight home meetings all by 10 or more points. Last year, Georgia Tech beat the Blue Devils 38-14 while outgaining them 469-254 for the game in an completely lopsided affair.

Duke will likely have the same troubles in this one, which is stopping the run. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards on them last year. They rank 11th in the FBS in rushing (297.2 ypg) behind quarterback Justin Thomas (6.0 ypc) and Zach Laskey (5.0 ypc). Duke has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its last three games to Kansas, Tulane and Miami.

It’s really sad that the Blue Devils gave up that many yards to both Kansas and Tulane and shows what kind of poor shape this rush D is really in.  Sure, Duke does get a bye to prepare for Georgia Tech, but that is the only factor it has working in its favor.  A bye is not going to magically upgrade their talent on defense, which is what they need to be able to stop this potent Yellow Jackets rushing attack.  David Cutcliffe is 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play as the coach of Duke.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off their bye week, so they have two full weeks to prepare for Indiana, which is a huge advantage. They did look shaky in the early going this season with a 2-1 start that included a loss to Iowa State.  However, they have gotten a lot better in their two games since, which have been their two most impressive performances of the season.

Quarterback C.J. Bethard replaced an injured Jake Rudock midway through the Pittsburgh game a couple weeks ago.  He led Iowa to a come-from-behind 24-20 road victory over the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs.  Bethard continued his solid play the next week, leading Iowa to a 24-10 road win at Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite.

Head coach Kirk is beating around the bush with the media about who is going to play quarterback this week now that Rudock is healthy.  However, with Bethard being the reason for the solid play the last two weeks by this team, there's almost no doubt in my mind that he will get the nod.  He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last two games compared to Rudock's 6.3 yards per attempt against softer competition in the first three-plus games.  His ability to throw the deep ball opens up the Iowa rushing attack.

Indiana is being overvalued right now due to its 31-27 road win at Missouri.  I was on Indiana in that game because it was a huge lookahead spot for the Tigers, who had their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina the following week.  They caught the Tigers in a spot where they were ripe for the upset.

Really, that was the Hoosiers' only strong performance this season.  They have two terrible efforts in a 42-45 road loss at Bowling Green as a 9-point favorite, and a 15-37 home loss to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite.  Those two performances are more indicative of what kind of team Indiana is rather than the upset win at Missouri.

This is a great matchup for Iowa because its strength is stopping the run, while Indiana's strength is its rushing attack.  The Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards per game on the ground this season.  However, Iowa is only giving up 93 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's really impressive when you consider the teams they have played average 145 yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.

Iowa has won four of its last five meetings with Indiana with its only loss coming in 2012 by a final of 21-24 on the road.  The Hawkeyes are a real contender to win the Big Ten West Division this season, and they know that they cannot afford to overlook a team like Indiana.  They won't fall victim this week because they have had two weeks to prepare and are itching to get back on the field.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Indiana is 0-13 ATS in its last 13 games after outrushing its last opponents by 200 or more yards.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS off a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.  Thee Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State -10

Fresno State (3-3) is coming off a 24-13 home victory over San Diego State last week for its third win in a row. UNLV (1-5) has lost four in a row, including its 10-33 road loss at the hands of San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with three straight wins and covers following three straight losses and ATS defeats to open the season. Those three losses came against three of the better teams in the country in USC, Utah and Nebraska. They really got the Bulldogs battle-tested heading into conference play, and they have looked like a much better team against inferior competition.

They beat Southern Utah 56-16, New Mexico 35-24 on the road, and San Diego State 24-13 at home. Their defense has really showed some life by limiting each of their last three opponents to 382 or less yards, including the 270 yards to the Aztecs last week. Their offense has also come around with 694 total yards against Southern Utah and 593 total yards against New Mexico. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.

UNLV has gone 1-5 against the spread in 2014 after making a bowl game last year. This team has been overvalued all season long to say the least. Its only cover came as an 18-point underdog to San Diego State in a 17-point loss. All five of its losses have come by 14 or more points this season, and its only win came against FCS foe Northern Colorado by a final of 13-12 as a 27.5-point home favorite.

The Rebels have really been bitten by injuries this season. Starting quarterback Blake Decker was injured in last week’s 10-33 loss to San Jose State in which they were outgained by 321 total yards by the Spartans in perhaps their worst effort of the year. Backup Nick Sherry was awful as his replacement, completing just 5 of 18 passes for 45 yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Decker is questionable to return this week. This is an offense that was already without last year’s top receiver in Devante Davis (87 receptions, 1,290 yards, 14 TD in 2013), who has missed the past two games and is questionable to return this week.  Also, leading rusher Keith Whitely (299 yards, 4.9/carry) is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

The Rebels really need these players to be healthy because their offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with opponents due to their porous defense. Indeed, the Rebels are giving up an average of 38.7 points and 545.3 yards per game this season. That’s really bad when you consider that their five opponents this season average just 25.9 points and 418 total yards per game on the year.

Fresno State has owned UNLV by going 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with an average score of 38-16. All 10 wins came by 11 points or more. That includes last year’s 38-14 triumph by the Bulldogs that was completely a one-sided affair. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels 641-294 for the game. Look for Fresno State to score at will offensively, and to get enough stops against this injury-riddled UNLV offense to cover the number Friday.

Plays on road favorites (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Fresno State Friday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico +4.5

San Diego State (2-3) is coming off a 13-24 road loss to Fresno State last week as a 3.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-3) is coming off a huge upset win at UTSA by a final of 21-9 as a 16.5-point underdog.

San Diego State head coach Rocky Long said on Sunday that senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler is expected to miss a second straight game after sitting out the 13-24 loss to Fresno State last week. That means freshman QB Nick Bawden will get another start after a disastrous effort against the Bulldogs. Bawden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and those three turnovers led to 14 points for Fresno State.

Bawden went just 9-of-24 passing for 84 yards with one touchdown on those three turnovers against Fresno State. The loss of Kaehler, who threw for 3,007 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, certainly hurts. The offense was already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 68 receptions for 1,136 yards and three scores n 2013. That means the offense has lost each of its top four receivers from last year, which makes it tougher on Bawden as he has no playmakers outside.

After a frustrating 24-35 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, New Mexico showed a lot of resolve last week by going on the road and coming away with a 21-9 victory over a very good UTSA team. It outgained the Roadrunners 370-341 for the game as it put up 283 yards on the ground and 5.9 per carry. Look for the Lobos to control this game behind a potent rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game and 6.1 per carry on the season.

The Lobos had won eight straight meetings with the Aztecs prior to losing the last four. However, three of the last four losses have been by 10, 5 and 3 points. They will certainly want some revenge this time around, and should have a good chance of getting it as this is Bob Davie’s best team yet. They only lost 30-35 last year at SDSU as a 14-point underdog and were only outgained 483-423. The home team has won four of the last five meetings.

This is Rocky Long’s worst team yet at San Diego State. This team has really been inept on the road this season.  The Aztecs are 0-3 away from home, scoring just 15.7 points per game while giving up 27.7 points per contest.  They only managed 215 total yards in a 7-28 loss at Oregon State.  They were also held to only 13 points and 270 total yards last week against a very suspect Fresno State defense.

New Mexico is a sensational 39-22 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Lobos are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* Royals/Orioles ALCS Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +120

The Kansas City Royals have some serious mojo going right now.  After coming back from a 7-3 deficit to beat Oakland in extra innings in the wild card game, the Royals went on to sweep the Angels in the ALCS.

They became the first team in MLB history to win three straight extra-innings games in the postseason.  That has given them the confidence to know that they can win in any pressure-packed situation, and in the most dire circumstances.

James Shields pitched against the A's and won the clinching game against the Angels.  Since the Royals have had four days off in between games, they have the luxury of sending their ace back out their for Game 1 of this series.

Shields has been superb this season, going 15-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.189 WHIP over 36 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 19 starts away from home. 

Shields is also 11-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 26 career starts against the Orioles.  That includes a 2-1 record and a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts against them, where he has allowed just 6 earned runs over 23 innings.

Chris Tillman is having a fine season for Baltimore as well, but he has not fared well against Kansas City.  Indeed, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in four of those five starts.

The Royals are 22-4 in Shields' last 26 road starts.  The Royals are 12-1 in Shields' last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Kansas City is 6-0 in its last six games as an underdog.  Shields is 9-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Shields is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive team wins over the last three seasons.  These last four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing Kansas City.  Roll with the Royals in Game 1 Friday.

20* Colts/Texans AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston +3

The Houston Texans have been one of the most improved teams in the league this season. They have gone 3-2 this season despite playing three games on the road. Both of their losses came away from home to the Giants and Cowboys, who are both playing tremendous football of late. The Texans have won both of their home games with a 17-6 triumph over Washington in the opener and a 23-17 win over Buffalo in Week 4.

Houston’s defense has been one of the better stop units in the league this year. It ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at just 17.4 points per game allowed this season. This is a unit that has been one of the best in the league over the past four years, so this should come as no surprise. Look for the defense to limit the Indianapolis Colts’ offense in this one and to keep this game close for four quarters.

Last year, the Texans played well against the Colts defensively. They held Andrew Luck and company to just 331 yards on the road and 314 yards at home in their two meetings. In fact, the Texans led the Colts 24-6 late in the third quarter at home, but blew that lead and eventually lost by a final of 24-27 as nothing went right for this team last year. They even outgained the Colts 483-314 in that contest and obviously should have won. They want revenge in this one.

It’s amazing how much better of a team the Texans are when they have a healthy Arian Foster. He has rushed for 404 yards and three touchdowns in four games this season while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He is clearly still one of the best backs in the NFL, and a weapon that the Texans use a ton.

The Texans should have good success on the ground in this one as the Colts are giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry on the season.  While Foster has voiced his displeasure about playing on Thursday's leading up to this game, his performance on the field begs to differ.  Foster has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four touchdowns in three career Thursday games.

I believe the short week actually favors the Texans in this one.  They are familiar with the Colts, who run the same systems they did last year.  The Colts are not familiar with the Texans, who have completely different schemes under new head coach Bill O'Brien.  Only getting three days to prepare for those new schemes is a huge disadvantage for the Colts.

"It's a huge game for us," offensive tackle Duane Brown said.  "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy."

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) – after two straight dominating performances where they held the ball for 34-plus minutes and recorded 24-plus first downs are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1983. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* BYU/UCF ESPN Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The season-ending injury to BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is going to derail their season. He was a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the reason this team was a sleeper to make the four-team playoff. He was having another fine game against Utah State last week before going out with a broken leg. Backup Christian Stewart was atrocious in his place, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdown and three picks.

Stewart is not even one-fourth of the quarterback that Hill was. While he should be better with a full week to prepare to run the offense, he just lacks the leadership and dual-threat ability that Hill had. He’ll be up against another great defense this week in UCF, which is giving up just 20.7 points and 334.2 yards per game this season.  The Knights limited Houston to just 12 points and 331 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers in their 17-12 road victory over the Cougars.

While the BYU offense will struggle due to a limited playbook for their backup quarterback, their defense will likely shoulder the load and keep them in this ball game.  That's because they will be up against a UCF offense that has been terrible this year.  Indeed, the Knights rank 122nd out of 128 teams in total offense at 281.0 yards per game this season.  They clearly miss Blake Bortles, who has left for the NFL and leaves behind one of the worst offenses in all of college football.

These teams last met in 2011 with BYU coming away with a 24-17 home victory for 41 combined points.  The total was set at 44 points for that game, and I believe we'll see a similar result here with the final combined score finishing less than 46 points.  These teams combined for just 659 total yards in that game, and I look for that number to be less in the rematch considering the poor shape that both of these offenses are in.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BYU) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), in non-conference games are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  BYU is 29-12 to the UNDER in its last 41 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cougars last five Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cougars last six road games.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knights last 43 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Nationals/Giants Division Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -134

The Washington Nationals showed a ton of heart last night to keep their season alive with a 4-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants in Game 3.  I look for them to win Game 4 due to their edge on the mound tonight and to send this game back to Washington.

Gio Gonzalez is having another fine season for the Nationals, going 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 27 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in his last three.  Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in seven career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong is must a mediocre starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 8-13 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 32 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three.

The biggest reason I have made this a Game of the Year play is that Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in five career starts against Washington.  In two starts against the Nationals this season, Vogelsong allowed nine earned runs and 19 base runners over 11 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez is 31-12 (+15.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  Vogelsong is 1-8 (-7.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.  Gonzalez is 77-34 (+30.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher in his career.

The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 starts vs. National League West foes.  The Giants are 1-12 in their last 13 games as a home underdog.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Vogelsong's last six starts as a home underdog.  These four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing Washington.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Seahawks/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7.5

I believe the Redskins are undervalued here because they are coming off such a poor performance last week against the Giants where they essentially gave the game away by committing six turnovers. Meanwhile, the public perception is very high on the Seahawks off their win over the Broncos. They also have a bye week coming in, but that’s not as big of a factor here because the Redskins played last Thursday, so they essentially are getting half a bye week as well.

There has been a recent trend where teams have been blown out on Thursday Night Football and then come back as underdog to win outright in their next game.  It happened a couple weeks ago as the Steelers lost to the Ravens 26-6 before coming back the following Sunday to crush the Panthers.  The Bucs were beaten 14-56 at Atlanta and came back the next Sunday to beat the Steelers on the road as 7.5-point underdogs.

This is a make or break game for the Redskins, who have been much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. They actually rank 2nd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 91.0 yards per game. They rank 8th in total defense (324.3 yards/game) and 4th in total offense (415.3 yards/game) coming into the week. That is the sign of a very good team, not one that is 1-3 on the season.

We all know about Seattle’s dominance at home over the past few years. However, this team has not been nearly as effective on the road. The Seahawks are 0-1 on the road this season with a 21-30 loss at San Diego despite being a 5-point favorite. They were really dominated in that game as they only put up 288 yards of offense and gave up 377 yards on defense, getting outgained by 89 yards in the loss.

Plays on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) – with a poor scoring defense – allowing 24 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Redskins have won each of their last six regular season meetings with the Seahawks. Seattle is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following a bye week. The Seahawks are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

15* Nationals/Giants NLDS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +124

I look for the Washington Nationals to go on the road Monday and get a win in San Francisco to extend this series.  They lost each of the first two games by a single run, which is disheartening, but this team doesn't have any quit in them.  They have been the best team in the National League all season.

Doug Fister is getting no love from the oddsmakers here despite having a stellar season.  The right-hander is 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.079 WHIP In 25 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in his last three. 

Fister has posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.  In two road starts against the Giants, he has given up only one earned run over 13 innings for a minuscule 0.69 ERA.

Madison Bumgarner is having a solid season for the Giants as well.  However, he has been much less effective at home, going 7-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.244 WHIP over 15 starts this year.

Fister is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter this season.  Washington is 28-10 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Giants are 5-11 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Washington is 18-6 in Fister's last 24 starts.  Take the Nationals Monday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +7

The San Diego Chargers are overvalued right now due to their three straight victories, while the New York Jets are undervalued due to their three straight losses coming in. Oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Chargers here as I believe they should only be about a 4-point favorite.

The value is clearly with the road underdog Jets, who need a win this week if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They have to be optimistic because they are only one game back in the AFC East, which is wide open.  Three teams are tied fir the division lead at 2-2, meaning the Jets are just one game back and right in it.

I have no doubt that the Jets are better than a 1-3 team. All three of their losses have come to good teams in the Packers, Bears and Lions. All three were one-possession games as they were decided by eight points or less. It is a sign that this team is a lot more competitive in 2014, and they should be showing some great value going forward as they will remain under the radar because of their record to this point.

The one stat that shows the Jets are better than their record is that they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 75.0 yards per game on the season. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (366.3 yards/game), and 3rd in total defense (291.3 yards/game). Geno Smith is receiving a lot of grief, but the team held an offensive players-only meeting and will likely rebound on that side of the ball this week.

“No grievances,” Smith said. “I understand the semantics are a huge thing in this market, but no grievance. I don’t want you guys to get that misunderstood. No one’s hanging their head around here, no one’s sad, no one’s down on themselves. We’re ready to go out and play.”

Simply put, the Chargers are overvalued due to their perfect 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule. They have a false sense of security right now after their blowout win over the Jaguars last week. I look for them to slip up this week, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Here is a list of the players who are questionable for San Diego: DE Corey Liuget, WR Malcolm Floyd, C Rich Ohrnberger, CB Jason Verrett, LB Jeremiah Attaochu, LB Reggie Walker.  These are the guys that are doubtful or out: CB Shareece Wright, LB Manti Te'o, LB Melvin Ingram, RB Danny Woodhead, RB Ryan Matthews, C Nick Hardwick, G Jeromey Clary.  Most of these guys listed are starters, so the Chargers are really having to go deep on their 53-man roster to find replacements.

San Diego is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs during the last three seasons. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to San Diego.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

This is really a make or break game for the St. Louis Rams, who cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They will be laying it all on the line this week to get a victory. They will also the the fresher, more prepared team after having Week 4 off due to a bye. That’s going to be a huge advantage for them as they’ll be taking on a Philadelphia team that is simply banged up right now.

The Eagles were manhandled by the 49ers 26-21 last week. The only reason that game was close was because Philadelphia got three gift return touchdowns with two on special teams and one on defense. Their offense was limited to just 213 total yards with four turnovers against the 49ers. They suffered more injuries in that game that will really hurt them going forward.

Philadelphia’s entire starting offensive line returned intact this year. All five starters started all 16 games last season as it got very lucky in the health department. Last week against the 49ers, only one starting offensive lineman from last year was in the game at one point. That was Jason Peters, who even left last week’s game at one point with an injury.  This beat up O-line will struggle against one of the best D-Lines in the league in St. Louis.

After ranking 1st in the league in rushing last year, the Eagles are only 27th in rushing this year, averaging 87 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  That alone shows you the kind of shape the offensive line is in.  They have only rushed for a total of 76 yards over the last two weeks combined while averaging 2.1 yards per carry.  Nick Foles hasn't had any time in the pocket, and he's starting to watch for rushers instead of keeping his eyes downfield.  He has also taken a lot of hits through the first four weeks of the season.

St. Louis has been a completely different team since its ugly loss to Minnesota in Week 1. It went on the road to Tampa Bay and came away with a 19-17 victory as a 4-point underdog. It then led Dallas 21-3 early in the game before letting the lead slip away, eventually losing 31-34. It actually outgained the Cowboys by 108 total yards in that game and should have won, but had a dropped would-be touchdown by Jared Cook and had to settle for a field goal, which proved to be the difference.

The win over the Bucs and the narrow loss to the Cowboys both look a lot better after last week’s results, with the Bucs beating the Steelers on the road, and the Cowboys blowing out the Saints. The biggest reason for the Rams’ resurgence has been the play of backup quarterback Austin Davis. He leads the league with a ridiculous 72.3 completion percentage, and his 8.0 yards per attempt ranks 6th among quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Davis should have his way with a Philadelphia defense that was awful last year and hasn't been any better in 2014.  The Eagles rank 28th in the league in total defense at 391.2 yards per game allowed.  They have been owned in the running game and the passing game at times.  They gave up 169 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 2 and 218 to the 49ers last week.  They allowed 427 passing yards to the Redskins in Week 3.  Not helping matters is that their best defender in LB Mychal Kendricks missed last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Also, starting CB Brandon Boykin is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Simply put, the Eagles have no home-field advantage. They have gone a woeful 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. Time and time again, they have been overvalued at home. They were lucky to come back from a 17-0 deficit at home to the Jaguars in their opener. They also trailed Washington for the majority of the game in their last home contest, eventually winning 37-34 as a 4-point favorite. There’s a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well. 

Plays against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 80-36 (69%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York Giants -4

It was going to take some time for the new West Coast System to come along in New York. The first two games were certainly not up to par offensively, but the last two have shown that Eli Manning is finally starting to get comfortable. The Giants beat the Texans 30-17 at home in Week 3 before going on the road and topping the Redskins 45-14 last week.

Manning went 21-of-28 passing for 234 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans, while Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a score in the win. Manning went 28-of-39 for 300 yards and four touchdowns with one pick against the Redskins. The Giants also managed to rush for 154 yards as a team. The improvement of Manning, coupled with a balanced offensive attack thanks to a new-found ground game, have really shown through the past two weeks.

Now, the Giants will be the fresher team in this one because they played last Thursday and have had an extra three days to rest. The Falcons could really use some rest after their embarrassing 28-41 loss to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week. They have all kinds of injury problems right now that won't be fixed in a week's time.

Indeed, the Falcons were forced to use their starting tight end at right tackle against Minnesota because of all of the injuries suffered along the offensive line during the loss. Center Joe Hawley, guard Justin Blalock, tackle Lamar Holmes, guard Jon Asamoah, tackle Sam Baker and tackle Mike Johnson are all injured. There’s a good chance that none of these guys play this week as they are all either listed as questionable or out.  Also, third receiver Harry Douglas is questionable after missing last week with a foot injury.

That's bad news for Matt Ryan as he figures to be under pressure all game long against a Giants' defense that is vastly improved up front and in the secondary.  They harassed Ryan Fitzpatrick and forced him into three interceptions in Week 3.  Kirk Cousins was under constant pressure last week, which led to him throwing four interceptions as the Redskins turned the ball over six times.  Both of those teams have much better offensive lines than the one the Giants will be teeing off on Sunday.

Atlanta has just as big of problems on the other side of the ball. It could not stop anyone last year defensively, and that appears to be the case again in 2014. The Falcons gave up a whopping 558 total yards to the Vikings last week with 241 on the ground and 317 through the air. They also allowed 472 yards to the Bengals and 472 yards to the Saints. They currently rank 31st in the league in total defense at 429.8 yards per game.  They are expected to be without their defensive leader in safety William Moore, who suffered a shoulder injury last week and has been placed on the IR.

The Falcons are 1-9 in their last 10 road games dating back to last season.  They are getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game on the road this season.  Their 10-24 loss at Cincinnati in Week 2 was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were actually outgained 309-472 in that contest and the Bengals missed three field goals.  They just don't play well on the road, especially outdoors.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Atlanta is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. New York is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +6.5

The Dallas Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the Saints Sunday night. I do have to admit that the Cowboys have been better than expected, but at the same time this team has a lot of flaws that will be exposed in the coming weeks. They won’t be in a great state of mind mentally off that big win. I believe they are simply overvalued here due to their three straight victories as they should not be more than a 3 to 4-point favorite in this one.

Without question, Dallas still has a defense that is extremely vulnerable, just as it was last season when it ranked dead last in the league in total defense. It is giving up 379.9 yards per game thus far in 2014 to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Those numbers would be worse if the Cowboys didn’t hold the ball for over 40 minutes against the Titans. They also had the ball for most of the San Francisco game due to turnovers and short fields for the 49ers.  They did give up 438 total yards to the Saints last week but were bailed out by turnovers.

Now, star cornerback Morris Claiborne is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL suffered last week.  Also, starting linebacker Bruce Carter is expected to miss Sunday's game due to a quad injury.  This is a defense that was already without LB Sean Lee and DE Demarcus Lawrence.  Everyone is saying that the Cowboys' defense isn't as bad as it was last year, but give it some time and I believe you will see that it is every bit as bad due to the lack of talent and the injuries.

Houston was a team I had my eye on coming into this season as being the most improved in the league. That has proven to be the case thus far as it has opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. I still believe the Texans aren’t getting the respect they deserve from the books, and that is reflected in this line as they are a 6.5-point underdog. The betting public is jumping on the Dallas bandwagon while completely ignoring the 3-1 start by the Texans.

This is such a big letdown spot for the Cowboys. Not only are they coming off the win over the Saints last week, they also have a road trip to Seattle on deck next week. I foresee them laying an egg here, which is something they have been accustomed to doing over the last several years. That will allow the Texans to stay within the number and possibly pull off the upset. Either way, I’m not so sure that Houston isn’t the better team here anyway.

Plays against favorites (DALLAS) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Dallas is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a game where it controlled the ball for 34-plus minutes and had 24-plus first downs.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -10

The New Orleans Saints certainly have their backs against the wall now after an ugly 1-3 start to the season that nobody could have predicted. They lost on last-second field goals on the road to both the Falcons and Browns in their first two games. They were blown out by the Cowboys 17-38 last week in a game that was closer than the final would indicate. They were only outgained 438-445 by the Cowboys, but shot themselves in the foot by finishing -3 in turnover differential.

The schedule has been tough to this point, but it gets much easier the rest of the way as they still have seven home games remaining. In their lone home game this season, the Saints took care of business in a 20-9 victory over Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Vikings 396-247 for the game.

To say the Saints have been a covering machine at home would be a massive understatement. Indeed, New Orleans is a perfect 17-0-1 ATS in its last 18 home games with Sean Payton as head coach dating back to the start of the 2011-12 season, including playoffs. New Orleans has outscored opponents by an average of 17.6 points in winning each of its nine games at the Superdome since the start of 2013.

While I have no doubt the Saints are better than their 1-3 record and could easily be 3-1 right now, the Bucs are every bit as bad as their 1-3 record and should be 0-4. The Steelers simply let them off the hook last week with all kinds of penalties and some questionable play calling toward the end. Remember, this team lost at home to both Carolina and St. Louis to open the season before getting throttled at Atlanta 14-56 in Week 3.

The Saints have proven that they have the firepower on offense this year.  They rank 3rd in the league in total offense at 425.8 yards per game.  I just don't believe the Bucs have the firepower to keep up with them in this one.  Indeed, Tampa Bay ranks just 30th in the league in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  I realize the Saints' defense hasn't been great on the road, but they are a completely different animal at home when they feed off the energy of their home fans.

New Orleans is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tampa Bay while outscoring the Bucs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Each of the last three home meetings have resulted in blowout victories with the Saints winning by 25, 41 and 11 points, respectively.

The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. awful passing defensive that allow 260 or more yards per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC foes. The Saints are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games. Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

20* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +13.5

The Utah Utes (3-1) are a one-point loss to Washington State (27-28) last week away from being undefeated on the season.  They have blown out Fresno State (59-27) at home as well as coming away with an impressive win at Michigan State (26-10).  They have played a tough schedule to this point and have shown that they are a much-improved team in 2014.

UCLA (4-0) did not look good in the first three weeks of the season.  It failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games, winning at Virginia (28-20) as a 19-point favorite, beating Memphis (42-35) at home as a 22-point favorite, and knocking off Texas (20-17) on the road as an 8-point favorite.  Those results were certainly reason to worry about the Bruins.

However, they came back with an inspired effort last week after having lost to Arizona State last year, which cost them a shot at a Pac-12 Title.  Of course they were going to be up for that game, and they showed it by throttling the Sun Devils (62-27) on the road.  The thing is that ASU is way down this season with only two returning starters on defense, plus they lost starting quarterback Taylor Kelly to injury, so he didn't even play in that game.  This team just isn't the same without Kelly running the show.

Now, the public perception is that UCLA is the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the season.  That could not be further from the truth.  I'm not willing to just throw out their first three games of the season, which showed that they weren't the team they were cracked up to be.  The Bruins still have a lot of flaws, yet they are being asked to win by two touchdowns against an improved Utah team this week to cover the spread.

There's no question that the Bruins are overvalued this week in my mind.  Now, they are in a very tough spot mentally.  They just got revenge on ASU and are undefeated on the season.  That alone sets them up for a letdown spot.  However, the bigger situational factor in play here is the fact that UCLA has Oregon on deck next week.  Without question, the Bruins will be looking ahead to that game, and the Utes won't have their full attention because of it.

We've seen the last two years that Utah is capable of beating UCLA, but it has come up just short both times.  UCLA beat Utah 21-14 as a 9.5-point home favorite in 2012, only outgaining the Utes 354-319 for the game.  Then, last year, the Utes lost 27-34 at home to the Bruins as a 5-point underdog.  They were only outgained 387-404 in that game, and the only reason they lost was because they committed a whopping six turnovers.  I look for this game to be decided by a touchdown or less as well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Utes pull the upset.

Plays against home favorites (UCLA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7.5

This is essentially a must-win game for LSU if it wants to compete for an SEC West Title. That extra motivation will certainly be in play here after the loss to Mississippi State in the conference opener. A very tough schedule thus far that has featured Wisconsin and the Bulldogs will have this team battle-tested as it goes into Auburn this weekend.

LSU fell way behind against Mississippi State, but rallied and made a game out of it late thanks to the play of sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris. He took the place of the ineffective Anthony Jennings in that game, and went 6-of-9 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns to lead LSU back late.

Harris continued his stellar play against New Mexico State, going 11-of-14 for 178 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. All seven of his drives against the Aggies resulted in touchdowns for the Tigers.  Jennings has completed 50.6 percent of his passes (42 of 83) for 734 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. In a smaller body of work, Harris has completed 73.3 percent (22 of 30) for 394 yards and six scores with one INT.  This guy is the real deal and the future of the program.  He'll get the start this week.

Auburn is still overvalued after making the national title game last year. It won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less in 2013, and it already has one of those on its résumé thus far. It beat Kansas State on the road 20-14 in a game that it should have lost. The Wildcats missed three field goals in that game and committed three turnovers, including one that would have been a touchdown that bounce off a receiver’s chest and wound up being an interception in Auburn’s end zone.

LSU beat Auburn 35-21 at home last year to continue its domination in this series. Indeed, LSU has won six of the last seven meetings with Auburn. LSU led 21-0 at halftime last year with Auburn not once making it past the LSU 41-yard line. Auburn would make a bit of a comeback after halftime, but this game was already decided at that point as LSU handed Auburn its only regular season defeat.

Plays against home favorites (AUBURN) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. LSU is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Auburn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -14.5

While the spreads have been set pretty big for Baylor (4-0), the fact of the matter is that this team still doesn’t get enough respect from oddsmakers. It went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. It has already opened 3-0-1 ATS in 2014 with its only non-cover coming against Iowa State last week in a 49-28 win as a 21-point favorite. The Cyclones scored 21 points in the second half with the game already decided and Baylor taking the foot off the gas.

Don’t look for the Bears to take their foot off the gas in this one. Art Briles knows that his program is fighting for recruiting with Texas, and his team has been actually winning that battle recently. The only way to keep winning it is to continue beating Texas handily, so look for him to show no mercy in this game like he did last week against Iowa State when he pulled Bryce Petty and several starters after three quarters.

You can believe that Briles will be reminding his players of all the agony this program had to go through for a long time when Texas kept beating it repeatedly. The tables have turned, and now the Bears have won three of the last four meetings while going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They have put up over 500 yards of offense on Texas in each of the last three meetings as well.

The 30-10 win over the Longhorns last year was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bears outgained them 508-217 for the game. They would have won by more, but they were feeling the nerves of trying to win their first Big 12 Championship in the season finale and were tight.  They won't be tight in this one as this is an early-season matchup and they'll be looking to make a statement once again.

Texas is in rebuilding mode right now. It has already suffered two losses this season with an embarrassing 7-41 setback against BYU, and a 17-20 home loss to UCLA. That game against the Bruins was a bigger blowout than the final score shows as the Longhorns were outgained 322-443 for the game. Brett Hundley had to leave that game early in the first quarter, forcing UCLA to use its backup quarterback for nearly all four quarters, and yet it still won.  The perception that the Longhorns played the Bruins tough is a contributing factor in keeping this number lower than it should be.

The Longhorns are without their starting quarterback and three starting offensive linemen. They have had nine players kicked off the team as Charlie Strong tries to put his imprint on the program. Sure, there are some players who are buying in, but these aren’t Strong’s players. They are having a tough time adjusting to his way of doing things, and not everybody is laying it all on the line for him right now.

The offense only managed 329 total yards against lowly Kansas last week, and they are averaging just 315.5 yards per game on the season.  They simply do not have the firepower to keep up with Baylor in this one.  One of the biggest reasons the Bears are underrated is because their offense gets all the credit.  Meanwhile, the defense is going under the radar, allowing just 13.7 points and 250.5 yards per game this season.  This is arguably the best stop unit in the Big 12.  The Bears certainly have the best D-Line in the conference.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bears are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Roll with Baylor Saturday.

15* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +2.5

I have been very impressed with Notre Dame this season behind the play of quarterback Everett Golson. It has opened 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with its only non-cover coming against Purdue (30-14) as a 30-point favorite. That was a clear letdown spot for the Irish off the big 31-0 win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite. It has also beaten Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite, and Syracuse 31-15 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite.

Golson is now 14-1 as a starter at Notre Dame with his only loss coming against Florida State in the 2012-13 BCS Championship. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,142 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 104 yards and four scores this year.

The junior was suspended for all of the 2013 season, which allowed him to work on his game while also watching from the outside to work on the mental side of it, too. It’s clearly paying big dividends this year as the offense is averaging 35.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, and Golson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's no denying that Stanford has an elite defense. It has put up tremendous numbers this season, but a closer look at the schedule shows that it hasn't been as impressive as it is perceived to be.  The Cardinal have not faced an offense as good as the one they will be up against this week.  Their four opponents have been Cal Davis, USC, Army and Washington.  USC is by far the best offensive team they have played, and Washington has one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12.

The problem for this team is the play of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who just holds the Cardinal down. They had nine trips inside the USC 30-yard line and only came away with 10 points, losing by a final of 10-13. Last week, the defense limited Washington to 13 points, but Hogan was only able to muster up 20 points as the Cardinal got a late score to win by a touchdown 20-13. That was not a very good Washington team, and USC is obviously not a great team either as it lost to Boston College.

Despite playing a tougher schedule than Stanford, the Fighting Irish have held their own defensively as well.  They are only giving up 11.5 points per game on the season.  They shut out Michigan 31-0 and have held all four of their opponents in Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse to 17 points or less.  The Cardinal may have a slight edge on defense, but the difference in this game will be Golson outplaying Hogan by a landslide, as well as the home-field for the Fighting Irish.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Stanford and Notre Dame. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Even in a down year last season, the Irish hung tough on the road and only lost by a final of 20-27 as a 16.5-point underdog. With Golson running the show this time around, I look for him to improve to 15-1 as a starter overall, including 2-0 against Stanford.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pac-12 opponents. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU +6

I picked TCU (3-0) to surprise and win the Big 12 this season and have seen nothing to this point to change my mind. This will be Oklahoma’s toughest test of the entire season, and I look for it to fail and come away with a loss in Forth Worth Saturday afternoon. The perception on the Horned Frogs is that they are down since they joined the Big 12, but they simply have had inexperience and close losses over the past two seasons.

Two of those close losses last year came to both Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs were only beaten by the Sooners 17-20 on the road as a 10-point underdog. They then gave Baylor a run for their money in their season finale, losing 38-41 at home as a 13-point dog. Remember, this team went 4-8 last year, but they were much better than their record would indicate. That is going to show in 2014 as Gary Patterson has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and a hungry, talented, experienced bunch.

I love what the new up-tempo, spread offense is doing for the Horned Frogs this year. They are averaging 44.7 points and 532.0 yards per game behind the play of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 858 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception, while also rushing for 183 yards and three scores.

The defense has been dynamite and is the backbone of this team after finishing 1st in the conference in total defense last year. The Frogs are giving up just 7.0 points and 218.7 yards per game. Their 30-7 win over Minnesota looks a lot better now after the Golden Gophers went into Michigan and came away with a 30-14 win last week. TCU held a very good Minnesota rushing attack to just 99 yards on 36 carries. It is allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry this season.

Admittedly, Oklahoma has been better than I expected it to be coming into the season. However, this team hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules. Also, its 34-10 win over Tennessee at home wasn’t the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Vols were going in for a TD in the fourth quarter that would have made it a 10-point game, but threw a 100-yard pick six. The 45-33 win at West Virginia saw the Mountaineers put up 513 total yards, but the three turnovers they committed really were the different in the game.

Despite not getting the results that they wanted in their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs played the Sooners tough in both meetings.  As stated before, they only lost 17-20 at Oklahoma last year.  They also lost 17-24 at home to Oklahoma in 2012.  Both meetings were decided by a touchdown or less, and this one is likely to come down to the wire as well, which is where the 6-point spread comes into play.  Except this time, because this is arguably Patterson's best TCU team yet, I look for the Frogs to pull the upset.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on any team (TCU) – with a great scoring defense – allowing 14 or less points/game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points are 87-44 (66.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. TCU is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games. The Horned Frogs are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Gary Patterson is 63-15 at home as the coach of TCU. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Mississippi State SEC No-Brainer on Mississippi State -2

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) are the real deal this season, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only a 2-point home favorite here. Dan Mullen has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and 57 lettermen who came back from last year’s squad. This is a team that started to show signs of life at the end of last year with close losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, and then three straight victories to close out the season.

They have picked up right where they left off with a perfect 4-0 start this year. The win at LSU really tells a lot about how far this team has come. The 34-29 final doesn’t do that game justice as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs led the Tigers 34-10 in the fourth quarter before a late rally by the Tigers made the final score look closer than it really was. Mississippi State outgained LSU 570-430 for the game.

Dak Prescott is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. He proved it against LSU, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score. Josh Robinson had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 197 yards and a touchdown as well. Prescott is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 378 yards and three scores on the year. Robinson has 485 rushing yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per carry.

Almost everyone jumped on the Texas A&M bandwagon after a 52-28 win over South Carolina in the opener. That win doesn’t look nearly as good now as the Gamecocks already have two losses this season and are clearly down. Three straight blowout wins over lesser competition further upped the hype on the Aggies. However, in their 38-10 win over Rice, they were actually outgained 481-477 for the game. Then their weaknesses really showed against Arkansas last week.

Texas A&M really had no business beating Arkansas, but wound up doing so by a final of 35-28 in overtime despite trailing 28-14 late in the third quarter. The defense is the real problem for the Aggies. They gave up those 481 yards to Rice, and then they allowed 484 yards to the Razorbacks. A whopping 285 of those came on the ground. Now, they'll be up against another elite rushing attack this week, and also a team that throws the football a lot better than Arkansas.

Mississippi State hung tough at Texas A&M last year in a 41-51 road loss as a 19.5-point underdog. It actually outgained the Aggies 566-537 for the game while racking up 299 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. Prescott was splitting time with Tyler Russell at quarterback in that game and still threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 154 yards on 16 carries. Having to face Prescott for a full four quarters will expose this A&M defense even more.

Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when facing a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Texas A&M is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after gaining 450 or more yards in three consecutive games. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

These five trends combine for a 36-2 ATS system backing the Bulldogs.  Finally, Mississippi State has had a bye week to get ready for Texas A&M, which will be a huge advantage heading into this one.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -7.5

Once Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in Week 2, I knew there was going to be a lot of value in backing this team going forward.  That has proven to be the case as they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since with a 66-0 home win over Kent State as a 31-point favorite and a 50-28 home victory over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite.  Unfortunately, I didn't back the Buckeyes against Kent State, but I did roll them last week against Cincinnati.

I'm on the Buckeyes again this week for many of the same reasons.  This is still arguably the best team in the Big Ten.  The problem early in the season was the play of freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, but this youngster has improved by leaps and bounds the last two weeks.  After all, he was the second-ranked QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, so it was only a matter of time before he'd start to shine.

He has done just that these last two weeks.  Barrett went 23 of 30 passing for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one pick while leading the Buckeyes to 628 yards of total offense against Kent State.  He came back with another strong performance against a much better team in Cincinnati last week.  He went 26 of 36 passing for 330 yards and four touchdowns without a pick, while also rushing for 79 yards in the win. 

So, over the last two weeks combined, he is putting up Heisman Trophy-like numbers with 642 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one pick.  You can look, but you won't find another head coach that has had better success with quarterbacks than Urban Meyer, who has turned guys like Alex Smith, Troy Smith and Tim Tebow into superstars at the college level.  Meyer is also now 27-1 in the regular season as the coach of Ohio State.

Maryland (4-1) is certainly an improved team this year, but all four of its wins have come against mediocre competition in James Madison, South Florida, Syracuse and Indiana.  The one loss came against West Virginia at home, and even that contest was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Terrapins were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 447-694 for the game.  If the defense gave up nearly 700 yards to WVU, just imagine what Barrett and company are going to do in this one.

Meyer is now 93-56 ATS in all games he has coached.  Meyer is 38-13 ATS off a non-conference game in all games he has coached.  Randy Edsall is 2-12 ATS off a game where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.  It's also worth nothing that Maryland QB C.J. Brown is questionable to play this week after suffering an injury against Indiana, tho early reports are that he will start.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Utah State +21

Both BYU (4-0) and Utah State (2-2) are coming off byes heading into this one. The Cougars were last seen beating Virginia 41-33 as a 16-point home favorite. The Aggies were last in action with a 14-21 (OT) road loss at Arkansas State as a 2.5-point dog.

In these rivalry games, I usually look to take the underdog when the spread is this big. These games are played much closer to the vest, and they tend to be closer than expected when the favorite is laying this many points. The Aggies have hung tough in this rivalry by going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with their biggest loss coming by 20 points during this span. Two of their last their last three losses to the Cougars have come by a field goal.

BYU comes into this game overvalued due to its perfect start to the season, which included a blowout win at Texas. It has clearly been overvalued in its last two games, which both have come at home. It was a 17-point favorite over Houston and only won 33-25. It was also a 16-point favorite against Virginia and only won 41-33. I could easily see this game going down to the wire, let alone the Aggies staying within three touchdowns.

Utah State is not getting much love here because it was blown out at Tennessee in its opener. However, the Vols are much better than they get credit for, as evidenced by last week’s three-point road loss at Georgia. The 14-21 loss at Arkansas State looks bad too, but the Aggies actually outplayed the Red Wolves in a losing effort. They outgained them 413-316 for the game and should have won.

Sure, starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton is injured and may be done for the year, but backup Darrell Garretson has actually put up better numbers than Keaton this season. Indeed, he is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 389 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while filling in for Keaton. He completed 27 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one pick in the loss to Arkansas State and has had nearly two weeks of practice to get ready for this one.

Utah State tends to have one of the more underrated defenses in the country year in and year out. Despite all the losses on this side of the ball in the offseason, the Aggies have held their own. They are only allowing 334.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play while forcing 11 turnovers through four games. This stop unit has familiarity working in its favor having faced BYU each of the past six seasons.

The strength of the Utah State defense is its run D, which is allowing 78 yards per game and 2.2 per carry. BYU relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 230 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a great matchup for Utah State, especially with its familiarity with the Cougars' offense.

BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. excellent run defenses that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off one or more consecutive losses. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS off a home win over the past three seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-135)

We are getting serious value on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line in Game 1 of this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Clayton Kershaw being nearly a 2-1 favorite on the money line over Adam Wainwright is an absolute joke, and we'll take advantage by backing the Cardinals on the run line in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.

If not for Kershaw, Wainwright would be your 2014 NL Cy Young winner.  He has gone 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 32 starts, yet he doesn't get near the recognition that Kershaw does.  Look for him to take this one personal and to be on top of his game tonight.

Wainwright has been at his best on the road this season, going 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 18 road starts.  He saved his best stuff for last as well, going 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wainwright has posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 13 career starts against Los Angeles.  Kershaw, meanwhile, is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 17 career starts against St. Louis. 

In Wainwright's 13 starts against Los Angeles, only twice have the Cardinals lost by more than one run.  In Kershaw's 17 starts against St. Louis, only four times have the Dodgers won by more than one run.

Kershaw is 1-10 against the run line (-9.5 Units) in home games after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  Kershaw is 3-17 against the run line (-14.6 Units) in home games in Friday games in his career.   The Cardinals are 53-24 in Wainwright's last 77 starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on Arizona +24

Both Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) and Arizona (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) are coming off bye weeks. The Ducks were last seen beating Washington State 38-31 on the road as a 23-point favorite on September 20th. The Wildcats are coming off a 49-45 home win over California thanks to a hail mary for a touchdown on the final play of the game.

The Ducks have been a huge public team over the last few years, which is why they have consistently been overvalued this season, and appear to be overvalued again as a 24-point favorite in this one. The public continues to back them religiously, which is why their numbers have been set too high. They have gone just 1-3 ATS in 2014 and were fortunate to cover against Michigan State, needing 28 unanswered points in the second half to win 46-27 as a 14-point favorite.

That game against the Spartans was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Ducks only outgained them 491-466. They only outgained Wyoming by 117 total yards in their 48-14 victory, another contest that was closer than the final score. Then, they only outgained Washington State 501-499 in their narrow 38-31 road victory last time out as a 23-point favorite.

Oregon’s defense has been torched by opposing quarterbacks for an average of 315 passing yards per game this season. It gave up 343 yards to Michigan State, 284 yards to Wyoming, and 436 yards to Washington State through the air. Now, Oregon will be up against a high-powered Arizona offensive attack that is averaging 42.0 points and 593.7 yards per game, including 366 passing yards per contest.

The Wildcats clearly have the offense that can put up points and allow them to stay within the number in this one. Anu Solomon is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that not too many folks know about. He is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,454 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 167 yards on 39 carries. Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions for 475 yards and six touchdowns as part of one of the best receiving corps in the land.

Scoring points has not been a problem for Arizona in this series with Oregon. Indeed, the Wildcats have put up 29 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Ducks. I believe 29 or more points is a foregone conclusion against this soft Oregon defense, which will allow them to stay within this 24-point spread as the Ducks likely won’t get to 50. Oregon is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +165

The Kansas City Royals have some serious momentum working in their favor heading into this series with the Angels.  They came back from 7-3 down against the A's in the wild card game to win 9-8.  They trailed by one run in the 9th inning and tied it up in the bottom half.  They also trailed by one run in the 12th inning, and then scored two runs to win it in the bottom half.

I like how the Royals didn't get away from who they are as a team in that win over Oakland.  They stole seven bases and played more tremendous defense.  Their speed and defense has been the best in the league this season.  I really look at them as a sleeper to win the World Series, especially off a win like that over the A's that is going to give them the belief that they can win under any circumstances.

Jason Vargas is 11-10 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 14 starts away from home this year.  He is getting no respect as a massive underdog to Jered Weaver and the Angels in this one.

Vargas is 5-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 14 career starts against Los Angeles.  In his last two road starts against the Angels, Vargas has gone 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA, allowing just two earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.  In fact, in seven career starts at Los Angeles, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of them, including one or less in five.

Los Angeles is 0-7 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more this season. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  The Angels are 0-6 in their last six when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing Kansas City.  Roll with the Royals Thursday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota +9

The Minnesota Vikings are a much-improved team this season.  They have opened 2-2 with an impressive road win over St. Louis 34-6 as well as last week's home victory against the Atlanta Falcons by a final of 41-28. 

The loss to New England was much closer than the final score would indicate as the defense only gave up 292 total yards, but the Patriots took advantage of four Minnesota turnovers and were aided by a blocked field goal return for a TD.  The Vikings even hung tough against the Saints on the road in a 9-20 loss.

What a coming out party for rookie Teddy Bridgewater, who went 19 of 30 passing for 317 yards against the Falcons last week.  The Vikings also rushed for 241 yards in the win, and their 558 total yards were the fourth-most in franchise history.  Bridgewater had some rookie company in the backfield with running back Jerick McKinnon making his first splash, carrying 18 times for 135 yards. Veteran Matt Asiata had 20 carries for 78 yards and three scores.

"Being a defensive coach, when you have two different types of backs come in there it changes your mindset on some of your calls and also the players, they have to think a little bit differently," Zimmer told the team's official website. "It's not necessarily different plays all of the time - it's one guy can get to the perimeter faster, one guy can be a little bit more physical."

Sure, Bridgewater is listed as questionable for this game, but early reports are that he's feeling a lot better and should be ready to go.  Even if he's not, I like the Vikings' chances of covering this one with Christian Ponder.  The only reason this is only a 15* play instead of a 20* is the uncertainty over Bridgewater.

I really have not been impressed with the Packers at all this season.  They were dominated by both the Seahawks (16-36) and the Lions (7-19) on the road.  They were fortunate to erase a 21-3 deficit against the Jets to win 31-24 at home.  Their 38-17 win over Chicago last week was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Packers actually gave up 496 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 138 yards for the game.

They were also outgained by 138 yards in the loss to the Lions, and 143 yards in the loss to the Seahawks.  In fact, Green Bay ranks 29th in the league in yards per game differential as it is getting outgained by a whopping 83.5 yards per game on average this season.  It ranks just 26th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 390.0 yards per game.  The Vikings should be able to run the football on a Packers' defense that ranks last in the league in allowing 176.0 yards per game on the ground.

The Minnesota defense, despite facing Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, has yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season.  However, teams are converting half of their 3rd downs against the Vikings, which is the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only the Packers (52.6 percent).  Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind and it's clearly eating at him.

"It's terrible," coach Mike Zimmer said. "We've got a lot of work to do. I'm extremely disappointed in that. We'll put a lot more time and effort into it than what we have."

The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC opponents.  Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Packers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Packers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Vikings Thursday.

Note - I still like the Vikings at +7.5 and would recommend a play on them at 7 or higher.

20* Giants/Pirates NL Wild Card Rout on Pittsburgh +103

The Pittsburgh Pirates have made the postseason for a second consecutive year.  They continue to get no respect from the books as a home underdog in this winner-take-all wild card game against the San Francisco Giants.  I'll take advantage and back the Pirates, who are 51-30 at home this season, and 20-13 against left-handed starters.

Edinson Volquez is in the midst of a career year.  The right-hander has gone 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 31 starts and one relief appearance.  He really stepped it up down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three starts.  Dating back further, he is 5-0 with a 1.36 ERA in his last 10 starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 66 innings.

There's no denying that Madison Bumgarner is one of the better starters in baseball, but he's getting too much respect from the books as a road favorite here in a hostile environment.  He gave up four runs and three homers over 7 1/3 innings in his final start of the season against the Dodgers.  Bumgarner has been beat up in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, going 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA while allowing eight earned runs, two homers and 19 base runners in 12 innings with only seven strikeouts.

Volquez is 20-6 (+15.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 21-4 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-1 in Volquez's last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 6-0 in Volquez's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.

The Giants are 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 1-7 in its last eight games with a total set of 6.5 or lower.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 in its last seven during Game 1 of a series.  The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 39-18 in its last 57 home games.  The Pirates are 42-17 in their last 59 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Pittsburgh is 6-2 in its last eight home meetings with San Francisco.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

20* A's/Royals AL Wild Card Rout on Kansas City +101

The Kansas City Royals (89-73) played some clutch baseball down the stretch by winning six of its final eight games to clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 1985.  The electricity at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday Night for this wild card game is going to be something worth seeing, and it's going to be a huge advantage for the Royals.

The Oakland A's (88-74) stumbled into the playoffs.  They were 10 games up in the wild-card race on August 10th but needed Game 162 to win the final spot.  The A's lost 30 of their final 46 games.  Their .433 winning percentage since the All-Star break is the lowest in the history of a playoff team.

'Big Game' James Shields gets the ball for the Royals in this one.  The staff ace is having another stellar 2014 campaign, going 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 34 starts.  He has owned the A's of late, going 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.613 WHIP in his last four starts against them.  He has allowed just seven earned runs and 19 base runners over 31 innings in those four starts.

Jon Lester is one of the better starters in the league, there's no denying that.  There's also no denying that he has owned Kansas City throughout his career.  However, in his two most recent starts against the Royals this season, he has been vulnerable.  He has given up six earned runs and 18 base runners over 12 2/3 innings in two starts since the beginning of August for a 4.26 ERA and 1.421 WHIP.

Plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 90-47 (65.7%, +40.6 units) over the last five seasons.

Shields is 45-21 (+17.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last three seasons.  Oakland is 3-18 (-14.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Shields is 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last three seasons. 

The A's are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Royals are 39-18 in Shields' last 57 starts.  Kansas City is 7-1 in Shields' last eight starts vs. AL West opponents.  Kansas City is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* Patriots/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -3

The New England Patriots travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 4. The Patriots have won each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 34-3 victory as a 17-point home favorite in their most recent head-to-head battle in 2011.

New England (2-1) has bounced back nicely from its 20-33 road loss to Miami in the opener. It has responded with a 30-7 road victory at Minnesota followed by a 16-9 home win against Oakland last week.

Kansas City (1-2) opened the season with an ugly 10-26 home loss to Tennessee. It played much better in a 17-24 road loss to Denver in Week 2, and then put together its best performance of the season in a 34-15 win at Miami last week.

The Patriots have shown throughout the years that they can win games one of two ways, but the fact of the matter is that they just keep winning. They can either beat you with one of the best offenses in the league and a suspect defense, which has been the case in recent years. However, this season they are proving that they can win with a not-so-dominant offense but a stellar defense.

Indeed, the Patriots are coming off two straight shutdown performances defensively. They held the Vikings to just 217 total yards and forced four turnovers in their 30-7 road victory two weeks ago. They also limited the Raiders to three field goals and just 241 yards in their 16-9 home win last week. They currently rank 3rd in the league in total defense at 272.7 yards per game.

I look for New England to shut down a weak Kansas City offense that ranks 23rd in the league at 322.3 yards per game. The Chiefs have suffered some key losses along the offensive line both due to offseason losses as well as injuries, and they haven’t been very good up front at all. Alex Smith is a limited passer with limited weapons. Jamaal Charles missed last week’s game against the Dolphins and is questionable to return this week.

The Kansas City defense is without starters Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito, while stud safety Eric Berry is doubtful to play this week. This is a stop unit that played terrible in the second half of last year and into the playoffs when they gave up 45 points to the Colts.  I believe this is a bottom-half-of-the-league defense again in 2014, especially with all of these injuries.

You have to believe that New England's offensive struggles are eating at Tom Brady, and he and the coaching staff will do everything they can to become more explosive this week. The fact of the matter is that you cannot hold this offense down for long.

Also, last week’s narrow win over Oakland coupled with Kansas City’s blowout of Miami has provided some line value here. The Patriots should be a bigger favorite, but last week’s performances have kept this number lower than it should be.  Getting the Patriots as only a field goal favorite is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers.

Plays on road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Kansas City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 vs. AFC West opponents. The Patriots have won five of the last six meetings in this series. New England is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Week 4 games. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  They clearly don't have as good of a home-field advantage as they are perceived to have.  Bet the Patriots Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3

Dallas (2-1) has shown quite a bit of toughness since a 17-28 home loss to Dallas in the opener. It has gone on the road and beaten Tennessee 26-10 before erasing a 21-0 deficit to top St. Louis 34-31 last week.

New Orleans (1-2) suffered a pair of heartbreaking road losses to open the season against Atlanta (34-37) and Cleveland (24-26). It took out its frustration on Minnesota last week with a 20-9 home victory.

The Saints are actually undervalued due to their slow start to the season. That was the best thing that could have happened for Saints’ backers. I was on them last week as they barely covered the spread at home against the Vikings as a 10-point favorite with a 20-9 win.

However, a closer look shows that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgained the Vikings 396-247 for the game and should have won by more as they got back to their dominant ways defensively from last season.  They finished 4th in the league in total defense in 2013 and are better than they have shown on this side of the ball this year.

You can bet that Rob Ryan is going to want to stick it to his former team after the Cowboys fired him following the 2012 season, making him the scapegoat. He already did that once last year in a lopsided 49-17 home victory for the Saints, who outgained the Cowboys 625-193 for the game in a perfect performance on both sides of the ball. Drew Brees went 34-of-41 passing for 394 yards and four touchdowns in the win. The defense held Tony Romo to 10-of-24 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown.

That 32-point win for the Saints was no coincidence. In fact, to say this has been a one-sided series would be a gross understatement. New Orleans is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Dallas, which includes a perfect 4-0 road record over this span. The Saints have put up over 414-plus yards of total offense in four of the last five meetings, including 536-plus in three of those. The road team had won five straight in this series prior to last year's beat down by the Saints at home.

The Cowboys were really outplayed by the Rams last week. Their defense was shredded for 448 total yards, which is terrible when you consider the state the St. Louis offense is in right now. They were bailed out by three Rams’ turnovers. They will have their hands full against a New Orleans team that ranks 4th in the league in total offense this season at 421.7 yards per game.

Sean Payton is 20-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 24 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Cowboys have actually been much better on the road than they have been at home since building their billion-dollar stadium, and that has continued to be the case in 2014.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -183

Seattle (86-75) stayed alive for the second wild card with Saturday's 2-1, 11-inning victory. A win Sunday and an Oakland (87-74) loss would force a one-game playoff between the teams for the right to face either Kansas City or Detroit in the wild wild card game.

Los Angeles (98-63) has been resting most of its regulars since clinching the division title and has dropped four of six. It will send Cory Rasmus to the mound for his sixth start, though the bullpen likely will get plenty of work.  Rasmus hasn't pitched more than four innings in any of his starts this year.

Ace Felix Hernandez (14-6, 2.18 ERA) takes the mound looking not only for a win, but for the AL ERA title as well.  He is just behind Chris Sale (2.17 ERA) for that distinction, only adding fuel to the fire for him to dominate the Angels.

Hernandez has been stellar against AL West-champion Los Angeles this season, going 2-0 with a 0.94 ERA in four starts. He's struck out 40 Angels in 28 2/3 innings after fanning 11 while pitching seven scoreless innings of Seattle's 3-1 victory September 18th.

The Angels are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Mariners are 18-8 in Hernandez's last 26 starts.  Seattle is 8-1 in Hernandez's last nine starts after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  The Mariners are 6-0 in Hernandez's last six Sunday starts.  Seattle is 5-0 in  Hernandez's last five starts vs. Angels.  Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

San Diego (2-1) is just an 11-point blown lead against the Cardinals (17-18) in the opener away from being undefeated this season. It bounced back with a 30-21 home win against Seattle in Week 2, and carried that momentum over with a 22-10 road win at Buffalo last week.

Jacksonville (0-3) is one of three teams left to have not won a game this season. It blew a 17-point lead in the opener to the Eagles, getting outscored 34-0 in the second half. It has been all downhill since with a 10-41 road loss to Washington and a 17-44 home loss to Indianapolis over the past two weeks.

While it has not been a pleasant start to the season for the Jaguars, they at least have something to look forward to this week as rookie Blake Bortles will be making his first career start. He played better than Chad Henne in the preseason, and he gives this team their best chance to be competitive. I love the move by head coach Gus Bradley to try and inject some life into this team, and I look for it to work, starting this week.

Bortles came on in against the Colts last week and played pretty well. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Having an entire week of preparation to get ready to face the Chargers will certainly pay dividends and make the transition much smoother for him rather than being forced into the action like he was last week against the Colts.

San Diego enters this game overvalued because it has opened the season 3-0 against the spread. Jacksonville is undervalued right now due to going 0-3 against the spread in its first three games. The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with the Jaguars now. Oddsmakers have been forced to adjust, and they are tacking on a few too many points to this spread. This is clearly a letdown spot for the Chargers as well after their back-to-back huge wins over the Seahawks and Bills.

Also, the Chargers have a lot of key injuries they are dealing with right now.  They have lost two key starters on defense in LB Monte Te'o and LB Melvin Ingram.  Te'o is out indefinitely with a fractured foot, while Ingram, one of their best pass rushers, has been placed on the IR with a hip injury.  Offensively, they are down two starting linemen in C Nick Hardwick and G Jeromey Clary.  They are also without their top two running backs coming into the season in Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead.

Here is a trend that just goes to show how backing poor ATS teams in brief stretches can be very profitable. Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) – after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in three consecutive games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Also, plays on road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (JACKSONVILLE) – off 3 or more consecutive overs, poor offensive team – scoring 17 or less points/game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Again, plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) – with a pathetic defense – allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  You may not have been able to stomach taking the Jaguars up to this point, but it's the right move this week.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans +7.5

Tennessee (1-2) looked to be an improved team with a 26-10 road win at Kansas City in the opener. However, back-to-back blowout losses to Dallas (10-26) at home and Cincinnati (7-33) on the road have many questioning it.

Indianapolis (1-2) did not look good in the first two weeks with losses at Denver (24-31) and at home against Philadelphia (27-30). It took out its frustration on lowly Jacksonville last week, coming away with a 44-17 road victory.

The sign of a good team is one that is outgaining opponents on the season. The lopsided losses the Titans suffered against the Bengals and Cowboys were nowhere near the blowouts they appeared. They were only outgained by 54 yards by the Cowboys, and they actually outgained the Bengals by 26 yards, but they shot themselves in the foot with missed field goals and four turnovers in those two contests.

After outgaining the Chiefs by 160 yards in the opener, the Titans are actually outgaining opponents 348.3 to 304.3 on the season, or by an average of 44.0 yards per game. That 304.3 mark is good for 5th in the league in total defense, so they certainly have a stop unit that is capable of shutting teams down. The same cannot be said for the Colts, who are allowing 26.0 points and 387.7 yards per game this season, good for 28th in the league in total defense.

Tennessee will be out for revenge in this game after losing all four meetings to Indianapolis over the past two seasons. All four meetings were decided by 8 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer. In their 14-22 loss at Indianapolis last year, the Titans actually outgained the Colts 347-264 for the game. In fact, the Titans have allowed less than 270 yards of total offense to the Colts in each of the last two meetings in Indianapolis.

The Colts simply have a knack for playing in close games. They have gone 14-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less over the past three seasons combined. Their shaky defense doesn’t allow them to blow teams out very often, save for teams like the Jaguars who are horrible. There is a very good chance this game is decided by a touchdown or less as well.

Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Plays on any team (TENNESSEE) – a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  After an Indianapolis blowout last week and a lopsided loss by Tennessee, this line has simply been inflated.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +2

Detroit (2-1) has taken care of business at home this season with blowout victories over both the Giants (35-14) and the Packers (19-7). Sandwiched between those two performances was a stinker in a 7-24 road loss to the Panthers.

New York (1-2) won its opener against Oakland by a final of 19-14. It has since suffered a pair of heartbreaking losses with a 24-31 setback on the road at Green Bay and a 19-27 home loss to Chicago.

This is a make-or-break game for the Jets. They know they cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want any chance of making the postseason. I look for them to put it all on the line to get a win this weekend, and to likely come away victorious. This is a huge letdown spot for the Lions, who are coming off a rare win over division rival Green Bay last week.

Despite the 1-2 start, I have been very impressed with the Jets up to this point. They had the Packers down 21-3 on the road and had every chance to win that game, but had a potential game-tying touchdown called back due to a timeout. They simply gave the game away against the Bears last week despite outplaying them, committing three turnovers. They outgained Chicago 414-257 for the game, which was the second time they have put up over 400 yards of offense this season.

There’s no question that the Jets are better than they get credit for. That’s evident by the fact that they rank 2nd in the league in total defense at 268.3 yards per game, and 8th in total offense at 376.0 yards per game. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 107.7 yards per game on the season. That's the third-best yardage differential in the league and shows what this team is capable of provided that they quit turning the ball over on offense.

While the Lions have looked absolutely dominant at home, they were a completely different team in their lone road game this season. They lost to the Panthers by a final of 7-24 despite being just a 1.5-point underdog in that contest. The offense was limited to just 323 total yards while committing three turnovers. The Lions are now just 5-12 on the road over the past three seasons. They have gone 0-8 on the road five times since 2001 while finishing with a .500 road record or better only once in the last 13 years.

Detroit is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. The Lions are 29-51 ATS in their last 80 road games following one or more consecutive ATS wins. The Jets are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games off a home loss. New York is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 after playing on Monday Night Football.  Take the Jets Monday.

20* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -1.5

Chicago (2-1) didn’t let a 20-23 home loss in overtime to Buffalo in the opener dictate what kind of team it would be this season. It is coming off two straight impressive road wins on primetime television over the 49ers (28-20) and Jets (27-19).

Green Bay (1-2) is somewhat fortunate to have a win this season. It had to erase a 21-3 deficit to beat the Jets (31-24) at home in Week 2. That victory was sandwiched between a pair of ugly road losses at Seattle (16-36) and Detroit (7-19).

The Packers have played an extremely tough schedule in the early going, which is more than anything responsible for their 1-2 start. Road games against the Seahawks and Lions clearly have not been easy. Those two teams appear to be two of the best in the league in 2014. In hopes of avoiding a 1-3 start, the Packers will buckle down this week and be extra motivated to take down the Bears.

Playing Chicago is exactly what the Packers need to get right. After all, they have won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. They racked up 473 yards of total offense in their 33-28 road victory at Chicago last season to improve to 4-0 in the last four meetings at Soldier Field.

They did lose to the Bears at home last season, but that was the game where Aaron Rodgers got injured early in the first quarter as he attempted just two passes. So, when Rodgers plays the full game, the Packers are 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

Chicago will be working on a short week. It is coming off a 27-19 road win over the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in a game it should have lost. That can also be said for the San Francisco game the week before.

The Bears have been thoroughly outplayed in those two games, but they have taken advantage of a combined seven turnovers by the opposition to pick up the two wins. They were outgianed 216-361 by the 49ers and 257-414 by the Jets. This team will not be able to live off of turnovers forever, and I look for their biggest flaws to show against Rodgers and company.

Chicago ranks 27th in the league in total offense at 300.0 yards per game.  It also ranks just 23rd in total defense at 377.7 yards per game.  As you can see, it is getting outgained by an average of 77.7 yards per game on the season.  That's the sign of a team that should be 1-2 or 0-3 rather than one that is 2-1.  Without question, it is fortunate to have that record at this point.

The Bears have one of the worst home-field advantages in the league. They are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, including 1-7-1 ATS at home under Marc Trestman. Chicago is 2-10 ATS versus division opponents over the past three seasons. The Bears are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. The Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Chicago.  Roll with Green Bay Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -21

The Baylor Bears have gotten off to another fast start this season, winning and covering each of their first three games, including their 63-21 victory at Buffalo last time out. Somehow, some way the Bears continue to not get the credit they deserve from oddsmakers. They won the Big 12 last year and are one of the favorites to win it again in 2014.

The books simply haven’t been able to set the numbers high enough in these first three games. The Bears have covered as a 31.5-point favorite against SMU (45-0), a 46.5-point favorite against Northwestern State (70-6), and as a 33-point favorite over Buffalo (63-21).  I don’t believe they have set the number high enough in this game, either.

Baylor has been the most impressive team in the Big 12 to this point, or it is at least neck-and-neck with Oklahoma. Its offense is dynamite once again despite being down some receivers due to injury for a few games. It is averaging 59.3 points and 654.3 yards per game, and after having two weeks to get healthy, starting receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman are expected to return this week. The defense has been as good if not better than the offense in allowing just 9.0 points and 221.0 yards per game.

Baylor absolutely destroyed Iowa State last year in a 71-7 victory that was as impressive as any in all of college football. It racked up 714 yards of offense while allowing just 174 to the Cyclones. Bryce Petty went 23 of 31 passing for 343 yards and two touchdowns before getting pulled early. The defense held Cyclone quarterbacks to 15 of 27 passing for 123 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They also limited ISU to 41 yards on 33 carries on the ground, an average of 1.2 per carry.

Iowa State is coming off its Super Bowl, which is the instate rivalry against Iowa that means more to the Cyclones than any other game throughout the course of any season. They did win that game 20-17, but the Hawkeyes are clearly down this season. You can’t forget the stinker that this team put up in the opener with a 14-34 loss to North Dakota State as the Cyclones allowed 34 unanswered points after taking an early 14-0 lead. They were outgained in that game 253-503 by the Bison.

While Iowa State did hang tough against Kansas State, it needed a TD on a punt return as well as another score on a reverse pass to keep that game close. In all reality, that game was far from the 28-32 contest it turned out to be. The Cyclones were actually outgained 319-471 by the Wildcats and should have lost by a lot more. All 28 of their points came in a wild second quarter where the Wildcats simply let down their guard. Baylor doesn’t let down its guard, it just keeps pouring on the points, which allows it to cover these big spreads.

Plays on any team (BAYLOR) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 points or more over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that gain 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +135

The Milwaukee Brewers (81-79) were recently eliminated from postseason contention.  They could care less about winning these final two games of the year after collapsing in the second half.  In fact, they have quit caring for over a week now as they have lost seven of their last nine games overall, including the opener of this series against the Cubs.

Chicago (72-88) has actually been a solid team over the last few months once it called up its talented prospects that are the future of the franchise.  These guys are playing for jobs next year, and they're playing inspired baseball to close out the season.  They have won three in a row, which includes a pair of wins over the Cardinals, who are in first place in the NL Central.

I'll gladly back the motivated Cubs and the underrated Tsuyoshi Wada Saturday.  The left-hander has had a very promising season in limited action, going 4-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 12 starts.  In his only start against the Brewers, Wada got the win on August 13th while allowing just two earned runs and six base runners over 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 Chicago victory.

I'll gladly fade the uninspired Brewers and starter Wily Peralta in this one.  The right-hander is having a decent season at 16-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 31 starts, but he he has been slightly worse at home, posting a 3.97 ERA in 16 starts at Miller park.  Also, Peralta is 2-5 with a 4.10 ERA in eight career starts against Chicago.  He is 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in three starts against Chicago in 2014, allowing 12 earned runs and four homers in 19 innings.

The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall.  Milwaukee is 0-5 in its last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's last five starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Chicago is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Milwaukee is 1-5 in Peralta's last six starts vs. Chicago.  Roll with the Cubs Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -17

The Buckeyes (2-1) are coming off a 66-0 home win against Kent State prior to having their first bye of the season last week. The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) were on the only team in the country to have byes in the first two weeks of the season. They have since beaten Toledo 58-34 and Miami of Ohio 31-24 at home each of the past two weeks, respectively.

I believe the Buckeyes are undervalued right now after their slow start to the season. They won at Navy 34-17 in their opener, but needed a monster finish to pull away for that victory in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate. Then, they lost at home to Virginia Tech by a final of 21-35 as they were sloppy in committing three turnovers.

That loss to the Hokies was the first regular season defeat in the Urban Meyer era, a span of two-plus years and a 24-1 record later. He used it as a teaching lesson, and his team could not have responded better the following week. They beat Kent State 66-0 in an absolutely dominant effort, outgaining the Golden Flashes 628-126 for the game while forcing three turnovers. They had a bye week last week, which will only allow Meyer to further progress his team.

It was obviously going to take some time for freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett to get comfortable.  Meyer has done wonders with quarterbacks since becoming a head coach, and Barrett is a guy that he recruited who is a future start.  He started to show that against Kent State, completing 23 of 30 passes for 312 yards and six touchdowns with one interception.  Expect him to continue to improve by leaps and bounds as the season moves along.

Cincinnati clearly is not that good this season despite the 2-0 start. Its 58-34 win over Toledo was nowhere near the blowout it would indicate as it allowed 563 total yards to the Rockets and their backup quarterback. It only beat a terrible Miami of Ohio team by a final of 31-24 at home last week as a 30-point favorite. It only outgained the Redhawks 370-364 for the game as well. Tthe Bearcats really don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this one competitive.

Cincinnati has not been able to run the football on either Toledo or Miami Ohio, which both have soft defenses.  It is only averaging 123 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 per carry.  It relies heavily on the pass, which is good news for Ohio State backers.  The Buckeyes are only allowing 99 passing yards per game and 4.0 per attempt.

The Buckeyes have won 10 straight meetings between these instate foes.  The Bearcats are 0-9 all-time in Columbus, including a 37-7 loss to Ohio State in the most recent meeting in 2006.  They also lost 6-27 prior to that in 2004 in Columbus as well.

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after gaining 6.75 or more yards and allowing 3.75 or less yards per play last game. The Buckeyes are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take Ohio State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -7

The No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (2-1) hit the road on Saturday, September 27th to take on the Washington Huskies (4-0) in a Pac-12 showdown. The Cardinal have won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a thrilling 31-28 home victory last year as a 9-point favorite.

The Cardinal had last week off following their 35-0 shutout of Army in Week 3 as a 30-point home favorite. The Huskies played Georgia State last week and wound up pulling away in the second half for a 45-14 victory to remain unbeaten on the season.

After losing to USC at home 10-13 in Week 2, the Cardinal know they cannot afford another loss if they want to win a third straight Pac-12 Title. That’s why they won’t be taking any teams lightly the rest of the way. There’s no way they should have lost to the Trojans in the first place as they outgained them 413-291 for the game, but committed two turnovers and simply beat themselves. They had a whopping nine drive that got inside the USC 30-yard line, so coming away with 10 points is unacceptable and highly unlikely.

Stanford got right with a 35-0 trouncing of Army in Week 3. It has since had a bye week to prepare for Washington, which did not have last week off. That extra week of preparation for the Cardinal will be a huge advantage heading into this one. It’s not like they need it as they have dominated the Huskies in recent years, winning five of the past six meetings in this series while going 4-2 ATS.

Washington is extremely fortunate to be 4-0 this season and is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It was outgained by 88 yards in a 17-16 win at Hawaii, outgained by 37 yards in a 59-52 home win over Eastern Washington, and it trailed Georgia State 14-0 at halftime last week.

Sure, the Huskies scored 45 points in the second half to pull away from Georgia State, but they were gift-wrapped most of those points due to four second-half turnovers by the Panthers. The Huskies only managed 336 total yards against an awful Georgia State defense.  This team is clearly overvalued right now due to the 4-0 record.

Simply put, Washington has no passing game. It couldn’t have faced an easier schedule to this point, yet it is only averaging 179 passing yards per game. It has been relying on its rushing attack, which has produced 239 yards per game.

That makes this a great match-up for Stanford, which has been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run throughout the years.  The Cardinal are only giving up 138 rushing yards per game 3.5 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have played both USC and and the triple-option attack of Army.

Stanford is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more. Washington is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a blowout home win by 28 points or more. The Huskies are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Cardinal are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Washington.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* FSU/NC State ACC Saturday No-Brainer on NC State +18.5

The No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (3-0) travel to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-0) on Saturday, September 27th. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 49-17 victory by the Seminoles last year as a 34-point favorite.

The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 23-17 overtime victory over the Clemson Tigers. They managed to gut out a win without Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who was serving a one-game suspension. The Wolfpack are coming off a 42-0 beat down of Presbyterian at home last week.

The Wolfpack have already exceeded their win total from last season. They haven’t exactly played the toughest of schedules en route to their 4-0 start, but Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are no pushovers, and this team has improved with every game. I was extremely impressed with their Week 3 road victory at South Florida by a final of 49-17 as they outgained the Bulls by 430 total yards for the game.

After having just 10 starters back in his first season on the job in 2013, head coach Dave Doeren has 14 starters back this year, and several of his recruits are getting playing time. Jacoby Brissett, the former Florida transfer, has taken his game to the next level this year with the Wolfpack. He is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,005 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 118 yards and a score.

Florida State came into this season way overvalued after winning the BCS Championship. That has proven to be the case as it has failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games. It only beat Oklahoma State 37-31 as an 18-point favorite, The Citadel 37-12 as a 58.5-point favorite, and Clemson 23-17 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Seminoles were actually outgained by 89 yards against the Tigers last week. This is a letdown spot for them because Clemson was considered their biggest threat to win the Atlantic Division.

No team plays Florida State tougher more consistently in recent years than NC State. That’s evident by the fact that the Wolfpack are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Seminoles. The home team has won each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 17-16 upset win by NC State in 2012 as a 17-point underdog. The Wolpack will be licking their chops at another opportunity to pull the upset against the defending national champs in this one.

The Seminoles are more vulnerable defensively than they were last year. They gave up 161 yards on the ground to Oklahoma State and 250 to The Citadel. They also allowed 306 passing yards to Clemson last week. NC State’s balanced offensive attack will give this FSU defense some troubles. The Wolfpack are averaging 249 yards on the ground and 253 through the air for  a whopping 502 total yards per game.

The Wolfpack are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdogs is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series.  The Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Raleigh.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UTEP +28

Kansas State has been a covering machine with Bill Snyder as its head coach throughout the years.  However, it has done most of its damage in the role of the underdog, just as it did against Auburn last week in staying within the number despite losing the game.  This team isn't nearly as efficient at covering spreads in the role of the favorite, especially a four-TD favorite like they are today against UTEP.

That loss to Auburn puts the Wildcats in a serious hangover spot here.  They essentially gave that game away by missing three field goals and arguably outplayed the Tigers.  With a Big 12 game on deck against Texas Tech, they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.  I do not believe they are going to have the kind of focus it takes to win this game by more than four touchdowns and cover the spread.

Regardless of Kansas State's mental state, I believe UTEP would cover this number a lot more times than it wouldn't.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.  It was a rebuilding season last year for head coach Sean Kugler in his first season on the job as he had just 12 returning starters.  Now, he has 15 starters back and a more talented bunch than they get credit for.

UTEP beat New Mexico in the opener 31-24 on the road despite being a 10-point underdog while racking up 446 total yards in the win.  It then only lost at home to Texas Tech 26-30 as a 21-point underdog as the Red Raiders needed a late score in the 4th quarter and a defensive stop to sneak away with a victory. 

The Miners didn't let that loss bring them down as they rebounded nicely with a 42-24 road win over New Mexico State as a 10-point favorite while gaining 470 total yards in the win.  They have since had a bye week last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for Kansas State, which will be a huge advantage. 

This is a UTEP team that could legitimately make a bowl game this year for just the second time in the past nine seasons.  It has a relentless rushing attack that is averaging 317 yards per game and 6.2 per carry this season.  Aaron Jones is a name you should get familiar with.  His 184.0 yards per game average ranks second in the FBS, and he also has seven touchdowns this year while averaging 7.0 per carry.  Former Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers is doing an excellent job of running the offense at the quarterback position as well.

The Miners are one of only six FBS teams with just one giveaway and they've committed 12 penalties - tied for eighth-fewest.  "Those are two things we emphasize with our players everyday with ball security, getting the football, making sure we hang onto the football and the type of accountability we hold in our program carrying over to the discipline with penalties," Kugler said.

Plays against home favorites (KANSAS ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take UTEP Saturday.

20* Fresno/New Mexico Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State -4.5

There’s no question that three straight blowout losses by Fresno State to start the season are concerning. However, one look at the opponents they’ve lost to and I'm willing to give the Bulldogs a free pass. They have had to play road games at USC and Utah as well as a home game against Nebraska. Those three teams have combined to have just one loss so far this season, and they are clearly a class above the Bulldogs.

I like how this team responded as they easily could have been deflated. They bounced back with a resounding 56-16 win over Southern Utah last week while racking up 694 yards of total offense. That's the same Southern Utah team that only lost 19-28 at Nevada, which beat Washington State, which only lost by 7 points to Oregon.

It was clear that this offense would take time to gel with the loss of Derek Carr, but this is clearly a step in the right direction. Facing teams like Southern Utah and New Mexico will feel like a cakewalk after that brutal start to the season against tough competition.

New Mexico lost at home to UTEP 24-31 in its opener and at home to Arizona State 23-58 in Week 2. It barely escaped with a 38-35 win against a terrible New Mexico State team on the road last week. This team is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers, but it also may be disrespect toward Fresno State because of the 0-3 start.

Remember, the Bulldogs won the Mountain West last year and still have 13 starters back from that team. I still believe they will make a run at another MWC Title this year now that the schedule is much easier and they have had time to work out their problems.

After racking up 694 yards of offense last week, the Bulldogs have to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face a New Mexico defense that is giving up 41.3 points and 518.3 total yards per game. That’s really bad when you consider the quality of competition the Lobos have faced as both UTEP and New Mexico State don’t have that great of offenses. UTEP put up 446 yards, Arizona State 621 yards, and New Mexico State 488 yards on this Lobos’ defense.

New Mexico has some key injuries heading into this one.  Starting quarterback Cole Gautsche left last week's game against New Mexico State with a hamstring injury.  He leads the team with 237 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 11.8 per carry, so that would be a huge loss if he can't go.  It would be hard to believe he's recovered from a hamstring injury on a short week even if he does go.

Starting receiver Carlos Wiggins, who had 252 kick return yards including one for a score against the Bulldogs last year and was a 4th-team All-American kick returner, is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  Starting right tackle Johnny Vizcaino is expected to miss this game with a concussion.  Starting defensive end Nik D'Avanzo is doubtful with a knee injury.  Running back Teriyon Gipson, who has the most rushing attempts (35) on the team, is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Bulldogs beat New Mexico 69-28 last year for their 8th win in the last nine meetings in this series. They racked up 822 yards while holding the Lobos to just 316 yards, outgaining them by a ridiculous 506 total yards for the game.  I know that Fresno State is down a bit from last year, but the dominance in this series cannot be ignored.  While New Mexico catches many other teams off guard with its rushing attack, the Bulldogs will be prepared for it because they are used to seeing it.

Fresno State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bulldogs are also 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams who rush for 230 or more yards per game.  The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -136

The Pittsburgh Pirates (87-72) have been the best team in baseball over the past couple weeks.  They have gone 16-4 in their last 20 games overall to clinch a playoff spot, but there's still a lot of work to be done with just three games to play.

Pittsburgh trails St. Louis by just one game for first place in the NL Central.  If it were to win the division, it wouldn't have to play in the one-game elimination wild card game.  Even if it doesn't win the Central, it wants to at least get that wild card game at home.

Cincinnati (74-85) packed it in a long time ago and can't wait for this season to be over after crumbling in the second half.  It sends Mike Leake (11-13, 3.78 ERA) to the mound tonight.  Leake is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts against Pittsburgh, and three runs or more in four of the last five.

Vance Worley has proven to be a huge addition to the Pirates' rotation this season.  The right-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.198 WHIP over 16 starts and three relief appearances, including 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his last three starts. Worley allowed one earned run and five base runners over 6 1/3 innings in his only start against Cincinnati this season on August 30th.

Worley is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season for his career.  Worley is 25-7 (+17.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse for his career.  The Pirates are 8-0 in Worley's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Reds are 15-37 in their last 52 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Pirates Friday.

20* Giants/Redskins NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +4

I realize that the Giants’ 14-35 loss to the Lions in the road opener is concerning. They were thoroughly dominated in that game. However, it is clear that the Lions are the real deal this season with the way they handled the Green Bay Packers at home last week. It was also going to take some time for the Giants to click offensively in the new West Coast sytem, and that finally happened last week.

They actually started showing signs of it against Arizona in Week 2. They really outplayed the Cardinals, outgaining them by 75 total yards for the game, but shot themselves in the foot by committing four turnovers. The defense played well in that game by allowing just 262 total yards, while the offense racked up 341. Eli Manning went 26 of 39 passing for 277 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

New York nearly put it all together in its 30-17 home win over Houston last week. It didn’t start great as it fumbled going in for a touchdown inside the 5-yard line, and botched a snap on a field goal attempt that would have made it 10-0. Instead, those two mistakes kept the score at 0-0.

However, the Giants didn’t fold when they easily could have, and instead found themselves ahead 17-0 early in the third quarter to put the game out of reach. Manning had his most efficient game yet, completing 21 of 28 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Rashad Jennings proved he could be a workhorse, rushing for 176 yards and a score in the win.

The Redskins played a grueling game against the Eagles last week that took a lot out of them. They lost by a final of 34-37 and have to be mentally and physically fatigued. They come into this game with a ton of injury concerns, too. Obviously,

Robert Griffin III is out, and DeAngelo Hall just want on the season-ending IR with a torn Achilles. DE Jason Hatcher, TE Jordan Reed, CB Tracy Porter, LB Brian Orakpo, G Shawn Lauvao, LB Akeem Jordan and DE Kedric Golston are all questionable to play in this one.

The Redskins held a late-afternoon walkthrough Monday and listed 17 players, nearly one-third of the roster, on the injury report. "We're losing guys left and right," Orakpo said. "Football's a tough game. Look, if you've got kids and can't stand injuries, don't let 'em play football." Said head coach Jay Gruden, "Obviously this is a week that I would rather not have a Thursday night game."

New York won both meetings last year as the defense simply dominated in each contest. It held the Redskins to just 251 total yards in a 20-6 home victory on December 29. It also held Washington to 323 total yards in a 24-17 road victory earlier that month on December 1. The Giants improved to 3-1 against the Redskins over the past two seasons with their only loss coming by a final of 16-17 on the road in 2012. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.

New York is 36-18 ATS in its last 54 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Washington is 17-38 ATS in its last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 road games off one or more consecutive ATS wins. New York is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. Washington is 37-59 ATS in its last 96 games as a home favorite.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers in Game 1 of this series Thursday.  I'll take advantage and back the OVER in what should be a slug fest tonight.

Colby Lewis is one of the worst starters in baseball.  The washed-up right-hander has gone 10-14 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 3-9 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 15 home starts.  In his only start against the A's this season, Lewis gave up five runs and 13 base runners over 5 1/3 innings of a 14-8 Texas victory.

Jason Hammel hasn't been nearly as good with the A's as he was with the Cubs.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 4-9 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 starts away from home.  Hammel is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in two career starts against Texas.

Lewis is 14-2 to the OVER after walking one or fewer batters in each of his last two outings in his career.  Oakland is 22-9 to the OVER as a road favorite of -125 or more this season.  The OVER is 19-7-1 in A's last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 

The OVER is 6-1 in Rangers last seven games as an underdog.  The OVER is 7-2 in Lewis' last nine starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 8-3 in Lewis' last 11 starts vs. Oakland, including 4-0 in his last four home starts against the A's.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Appalachian State +19.5

This is the first season as FBS members for both Georgia Southern & Appalachian State. While Georgia Southern has had the luxury of using a scheme that nobody has been prepared for en route to their 2-2 start, they won’t have that same luxury against Appalachian State.

These are former Southern Conference rivals who are very familiar with one another. They combined to win or tie for 15 of the last 16 conference titles prior to last year.  The Mountaineers won’t be caught by surprise against the Eagles’ triple-option rushing attack like the rest of Georgia Southern’s opponents have been thus far in 2014.

Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 38-14 at home last year for its fifth win in six meetings in this series. It outgained the Eagles 515-363 for the game. That’s significant because both of these teams return pretty much intact as they each have 15 starters back from last season. The Mountaineers have nine starters back from that offense that put up 515 yards.

Georgia Southern is simply way overvalued here because it has opened the season 4-0 against the spread with close losses to both NC State and Georgia Tech on the road. While impressive, the betting public has taken notice, and this team cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself.

Meanwhile, Appalachian State is flying under the radar due to a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start to the season, including a blowout loss at Michigan and that one-point loss at Southern Miss.  I believe that loss to Southern Miss is stuck in the minds of bettors because the Eagles are not a very good team.

However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Mountaineers really dominated that game and should have won. They  outgained the Eagles 455-329 for the game, but gave it away by committing three turnovers.  They also lost 10 points in the kicking game, including a missed PAT with six seconds left that would have forced overtime. That loss is going to work in our favor here though because the Mountaineers will be motivated, plus now they’re catching a few more points than they should be.

Freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb is running away with the starting quarterback job.  He is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 427 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 113 yards this year.  Marcus Cox is one of the better running backs in the country that not too many folks know about.  He has rushed for 280 yards and four scores while averaging 5.3 per carry.

This is simply too many points for a rivalry game like this one.  Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are meeting on the gridiron for the 29th time.  Thanks to wins in eight of the last 11 matchups, the Mountaineers lead the all-time series 15-12-1.  They spent 21 seasons as Southern Conference foes from 1993-2013.  I'll take the points in this rivalry game between two very evenly-matched teams.  Take Appalachian State Thursday.

20* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs +115

This will be the final home game of the season for the Chicago Cubs, and they would love nothing more than to send their fans out with a victory against their biggest rivals in the St. Louis Cardinals.  They did a nice job of playing the role of spoiler last night with a 4-3 victory, and I look for them to do it again behind their ace and an amped-up home crowd tonight.

Jake Arrieta has been one of the most underrated starters in all over baseball this season.  The right-hander has gone 9-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 24 starts, 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in 11 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.797 WHIP In his last three starts overall.

Arrieta has gone 1-0 with a minuscule 1.21 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis.  He'll be opposed by John Lackey, who is getting way too much respect from the books here.  Lackey is 7-6 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in 15 road starts this season, and 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts.

Lackey is 2-10 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  Lackey is 1-10 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 8-2 in Arrieta's last 10 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Chicago is 12-5 in Arrieta's last 17 starts as an underdog.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -108

No team in baseball is playing better than the Pittsburgh Pirates (85-71) right now.  They have gone 14-3 in their last 17 games overall to inch closer to clinching a wild card spot.  They are also just 2.5 games back of St. Louis for the NL Central crown.

No team in baseball is playing worse than the Atlanta Braves (76-80) right now.  They have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall to completely implode and blow their chance of making the postseason.  These players clearly aren't interested in playing for pride, either.  They have scored three runs or fewer in 10 straight and a combined four runs while losing four in a row.

Gerrit Cole is one of the bright young talents in this game.  The right-hander is 10-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  In his lone career start against Atlanta on August 20, he allowed just two earned runs over seven innings of a 3-2 home victory for the Pirates.

The Pirates are 37-16 in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Pirates are 20-7 on Cole's last 27 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last six after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  Atlanta is 0-4 in Alex Wood's last four starts as an underdog.  Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

20* Bears/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 44

I look for a shootout tonight between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets.  Both of theses offense's biggest strengths are the opposing defense's biggest weaknesses, which makes for a good possibility of a high-scoring affair when they get together Monday night.

Chicago is a primary passing team behind Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jefferey.  They threw for 341 yards in the opener against a good Buffalo defense, and then Cutler threw four touchdown passes last week against the 49ers to bring his team back for the win.

New York relies heavily on the running game.  It has averaged 35 rushes for 179 yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far, compared to just 30 passing attempts per contest.  Meanwhile, the Bears have thrown it 41 times per game while running it just 17 times per contest.

Chicago's weakness is its run defense, which gives up 161 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry so far this year.  They allowed 193 yards on the ground to the Bills in the opener, who are another solid rushing team like the Jets.

New York's weakness defensively its against the pass.  It gave up 310 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week in a 24-31 loss.  This is seriously one of the worst secondaries in the league, and that will show as the season progresses, especially tonight.

The Bears are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after one or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 13-3 in Bears last 16 road games.  The OVER is 15-2 in Jets last 17 Week 3 games.  The OVER is 35-16 in Jets last 51 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bears last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -140

The Pittsburgh Pirates (84-71) are inching closer to earning one of the two wild card spots in the National League.  They have saved their best baseball for last, playing themselves into the postseason due to winning 13 of their last 16 games overall.

The Atlanta Braves (76-79), meanwhile, have played their way out of the postseason over the last few weeks.  They have lost 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They have now clearly packed it in and have no interest in winning the rest of the way.

Francisco Liriano has been at his best on the road this season, going 4-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 12 starts.  He has also been at his best when it has mattered most here of late, going 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last three starts.

I'll gladly fade Aaron Harang, who is 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in his last three outings.  Harang has posted a 4.15 ERA in 27 career starts against Pittsburgh as well.

The Pirates are 9-0 in their last nine games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five during Game 1 of a series.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last six during Game 1 of a series.  Atlanta is 0-7 in Harang's last seven starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The Braves are 0-6 in Harang's last six home starts.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates Monday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch on Denver +5.5

Denver (2-0) has opened the season with a couple of wins by a touchdown over both Indianapolis (31-24) and Kansas City (24-17). Seattle (1-1) got off to a great start with a 36-16 home victory over Green Bay, but it looked human in a 21-30 road loss to San Diego last week.

You have to imagine that the Broncos desperately want revenge on the Seahawks after getting embarrassed by them in the Super Bowl 43-8 last year. They will be the more motivated team in this one, while the Seahawks may feel like they just have to show up to win. I look for a big game from Peyton Manning, who has been spot-on again in 2014 after last year’s record-setting campaign.

Manning is completing 69.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns against zero interceptions. He set league records with 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns last year to go along with only 10 interceptions. This guy continues to get it done at a high level.  Now, he'll have one of his favorite targets back this week in Wes Welker, who has had his suspension lifted.

The Broncos were up 24-0 on the Colts as that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They did let the Chiefs hang around last week as well, but they were obviously looking ahead to this contest.  You'll see what they are fully capable of in this one.  Their defense has come up big with stops at the end of each of their first two games to preserve the wins, showing that the offseason additions they made on this side of the ball are really paying off.

Seattle was thoroughly dominated by San Diego last week. There were no excuses for the Seahawks, either, because they had three extra days to prepare after playing the previous Thursday against the Packers. They were outgained 288-377 for the game as their defense looked extremely vulnerable.

Philip Rivers went 28 of 37 passing for 284 yards and three touchdowns without a pick against Seattle. He found tight end Antonio Gates three times for scores. Julius Thomas already has four TD receptions for Denver, so look for him to have a field day against the Seahawks.

Plays on road teams (DENVER) – after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers are 68-33 (67.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Seahawks are getting too much respect for their home-field advantage in this one.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +106

The New York Mets (75-80) have been playing solid baseball to close out the season.  While they want to catch the Atlanta Braves (76-78) in the NL East standings, the Braves clearly have no interest in playing for pride the rest of the way because they have blown a chance to make the postseason down the stretch.

The Mets have gone 11-6 over their past 17 games overall to try and finish the season strong and perhaps get back to .500 on the season.  The Braves, meanwhile, have lost 10 of their last 12 games and have no interest in winning this game today, or any of their final eight games for that matter.

Jacob DeGrom is the front-runner to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  The flame-throwing right-hander has gone 8-6 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three.  DeGrom is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season.

Ervin Santana is having a decent season overall for Atlanta at 14-9 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 29 starts.  He has packed it in himself, going 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts.  Santana gave up four earned runs over seven innings in his last start against the Mets on July 9th.

Atlanta is 9-22 (-15.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season.  The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven road games and 6-1 in their last seven games as a road underdog.  New York is 8-3 in DeGrom's last 11 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Mets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -1

Buffalo (2-0) went on the road and beat Chicago 23-20 (OT) in its opener before thumping Miami by a final of 29-10 at home last week. San Diego (1-1) let a late lead slip away in a 17-18 road loss to Arizona in Week 1, but bounced back with an impressive 30-21 home win over Seattle in Week 2.

I have backed the Bills with success each of the first two weeks as I had this team being one of the most improved in the league. I look for them to win and cover for a third straight week with a win over the Chargers by at least a field goal. This team has all kinds of good vibes going right now with the new ownership, Jim Kelly beating cancer, and Ralph Wilson being honored last week.

The Buffalo fan base is going nuts with this early success, and it’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside of Ralph Wilson Stadium again Sunday.  It has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the league.  Indeed, the Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is also a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series dating back to 2002.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Chargers, who just beat the defending champion Seattle Seahawks last week. It’s also extremely tough for West Coast teams to travel out East and play a 1:00 game, because that’s 10:00 a.m. in San Diego.  Those two factors are as big as any as to why I'm fading the Chargers in this one.

While that 18-17 loss to Arizona appeared close, when you look at the box score, the Chargers really got outplayed. They were outgained by the Cardinals 290-403 for the game and only were able to keep it close thanks to a blocked punt and two turnovers by the Cardinals.

Buffalo has one of the most underrated defenses in the league. It led the league in sacks last year with 57, and it already has six sacks through two games this year. It is also third in the league with 18 passes defended and tied for second with three interceptions. This defense is built to stop the pass, and San Diego is built around Philip Rivers and the passing game, so this is a good match-up for the Bills.

The Bills finished second in the league in rushing last year. They have picked up right where they left off this season, averaging 153 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. The Chargers have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each of their first two games. They are giving up 108 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.6 per carry thus far. That makes this a great match-up for the Buffalo offense as well.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -10

New Orleans (0-2) is just two plays away from being 2-0 this season, but it hasn’t made those plays. It has fallen on the road to both Atlanta (34-37) and Cleveland (24-26) in excruciating fashion. Minnesota (1-1) has been a part of a pair of blowouts. It was on the right side of one in a 34-6 win at St. Louis in the opener, and then the wrong side in a 7-30 home loss to New England last week.

The Saints are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to take out their frustration from a pair of losses by a combined five points in the first two weeks. They were beaten by a last-second field goal in both games and needed to make one more play in each to win.

The Vikings are about where they should be at 1-1, but they have all kinds of off-the-field distractions right now with the Adrian Peterson situation and the loss of sponsorships.  Peterson was originally supposed to play in this game, and the line was -9.5 at that point.  The line is now -10, and I believe he's worth a lot more than a half a point.  This guy is simply irreplaceable on the Vikings, who have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in Matt Cassel.

The Saints would give the Seahawks a run for their money for the best home-field advantage in the league. Indeed, they went a perfect 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS at home last season while outscoring opponents 34.0 to 15.6, or by an average of 18.4 points per game. You can bet their home fans will be rocking as they try to inspire their team to turn the season around. A game against the Vikings should help them do just that in blowout fashion.

New Orleans finished 4th in the league in total offense and 4th in total defense last year. If anything, it should be just as good on both sides of the football in 2014. The offense has done its part, but the defense hasn’t been as good as last year despite the addition of Jairus Byrd this offseason. These players on D as well as coordinator Rob Ryan have been hearing about their shortcomings in the media, and they will be looking to make a statement in this one.

Minnesota did beat St. Louis 34-6 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Vikings only outgained the Rams by 37 total yards, but they took advantage of a +2 turnover differential, including a late interception that was returned 80 yards for a touchdown.

Cassel is limited as a passer. He went 0-for-8 on throws of more than 10 yards against the Patriots with three interceptions. The Vikings just do not have the firepower offensively to keep up with the Saints in this one.  That's especially the case now that Peterson is out indefinitely as he tries to shore up his legal problems.

The Vikings trailed by 17 at half to the Patriots last week.  They went on to net 89 yards, 53 of which came on penalties, after halftime and didn't get past their own 34-yard line until their final possession.  Wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson's response was troubling, given the direction the team has chosen to move with its star since the loss.  "We all felt off," Patterson said. "I think it was because 28 wasn't there."

The Saints are a sensational 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games. Sean Payton is 17-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans +7

Few teams have looked as dominant as the Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) thus far. They went on the road and beat Baltimore 23-16 in their opener, and then followed that up with a 24-10 home victory over Atlanta last week. The Tennessee Titans (1-1) thumped Kansas City 26-10 in Week 1 before laying an egg in Week 2 in a 10-26 loss to Dallas.

I believe the Bengals are overvalued due to their fast start to the season that has seen them beat both the Ravens and Falcons while covering the spread in each. The betting public has taken notice and will be all over them again this week, which is why I believe the oddsmakers have set the number too high here. I look for this one to go right down to the wire with the Titans having a chance to win it outright.

I was very impressed with this Tennessee team in the opener as it outgained Kansas City 405-245 for the game while forcing three turnovers in a 26-10 win. It did not play its best game last week against the Cowboys, but it hardly had the ball and lost the time of possession 41:11 to 18:49. I look for the Titans to come back with a much better effort this week. Meanwhile, the Bengals could be looking ahead to their next game at New England.

The Titans have had no problem moving the ball this season as they are averaging 359.5 yards per game, which would be more had they had the ball for more than 18 minutes against the Cowboys. Tennessee has been superb defensively, giving up just 18.0 points and 306.5 yards per game. Cincinnati has had some holes defensively, giving up 364.5 yards per game thus far.

While the Bengals have had no problem moving the ball so far this season, they face the best defense they have yet in the Titans in this one. Now, Cincinnati could be without wide receiver A.J. Green, who went out with a toe injury last week against the Falcons. He is questionable to return this week. The Bengals are nowhere near as dynamic without him at 100% health. He won’t be 100%, and if he doesn’t play that will just be an added bonus.

Tennessee is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Cincinnati. The Bengals are +5 in turnover differential through two games, so they won’t be able to keep up that pace.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on New York Giants PK

The Houston Texans (2-0) have beat up on a couple of overmatched opponents with a 17-6 home win over Washington and a 30-14 road victory at Oakland. The New York Giants (0-2) have suffered back-to-back blowout losses at Detroit (14-35) and at home against Arizona (14-25).

The Giants will be giving it all they have this week to try to avoid falling to 0-3 on the season. They opened 0-6 last year and do not want to go down that same path again. I did see some promising things out of the offense last week that shows the new West Coast system may be starting to finally come around. I think they will have easily their best game yet in this one.

What has killed New York so far is that it is already -6 in turnover differential. Tom Coughlin is not going to stand for it any longer. He’ll make sure his team does not beat themselves this week to give them the best chance to win.

Eli Manning played well against the Cardinals, who have one of the best pass defenses in the league. He completed 26 of 39 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two picks. If they clean up the mistakes, they will win this game.

Houston has played two awful teams, while New York has played two potential playoff contenders in Detroit and Arizona. Houston’s two opponents in Washington and Oakland combined to go 7-25 last season, and those two teams are off to a 1-3 start this year. I also think this is a pretty decent match-up for the Giants because the Texans like to run the ball, and the Giants have been good against the run.

The Texans are averaging 151 rushing yards per game, but just 170 passing yards per game. The Giants are giving up just 100 rushing yards per game on 29 carries per game thus far, which equates to a sensational 3.4 yards per carry. They made a lot of moves this offseason to shore up their defensive front seven, and that is clearly paying off against the run thus far.

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing its last game on the road. The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Simply put, the Texans are overvalued due to their 2-0 start, while the Giants are undervalued at 0-2 and a pick 'em at home in this one.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Oklahoma/WVU Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +8

Oklahoma (3-0) has lived up to the hype so far this season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 at home in its opener, went on the road and topped Tulsa 52-7, and then thumped Tennessee 34-10 last week as Bob Stoops had his way with another SEC opponent.

West Virginia (2-1) has played a very tough schedule in the early going and has done well for itself. It gave Alabama a run for its money in a 23-33 loss in the opener. It then shut out Towson 54-0 at home before earning a last-second road victory at Maryland (40-37) last weekend.

Without question, the Mountaineers are a completely different team than they were a year ago. They were atrocious to say the least last year, but they did beat then-No. 11 Oklahoma State at home 30-21 as a 19-point underdog. They also gave Oklahoma a run for their money in a 7-16 road loss as a 21-point underdog. After having just eight starters back last year, the Mountaineers have 13 back this season and are vastly improved.

The loss to Alabama was very impressive. They were a 22-point underdog and gave the Crimson Tide all they wanted in a 23-33 road loss. The 54-0 win over Towson was nice, but last week’s 40-37 win at Maryland was even better. This was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Mountaineers outgained the Terrapins 694-447 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to keep it close. Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards and four touchdowns in the win.

I believe Oklahoma is a bit overvalued here as more than a touchdown road favorite against WVU. The Sooners have been better than I expected to this point, but they also have played an extremely soft schedule. Their win over Tennessee last week wasn’t the 34-10 blowout it appeared to be as they took advantage of three Tennessee turnovers, including an interception that was returned 100 yards for a score as the Vols were going in to score in the fourth quarter.

Last year, as stated before, the Sooners only beat the Mountaineers 16-7 at home. The Sooners went on to win a BCS bowl game over Alabama, while the Mountaineers went 4-8 last year. Oklahoma only outgained WVU 435-387 for the game. Trevor Knight was awful in the win, completing just 10 of 20 passes for 119 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  Sure, Oklahoma is 2-0 against WVU as Big 12 opponents, but both have been by single-digits with their 50-49 road win in 2012 being the other.

Trickett did not play in that game for WVU last year, either. Trickett is a new QB this year, completing 75.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games.  The Mountaineers rank 13th in the country in total offense at 564.3 yards per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that they have played two great defenses thus far in Alabama and Maryland.

Oklahoma is 19-42 ATS in its last 61 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's revenge time in 2014 after back-to-back narrow losses in this series.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -102

The Seattle Mariners (83-70) trail the Kansas City Royals (83-69) by just a half-game for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also just one game back of the Oakland A's (84-69) for the first wild card spot.  This team obviously had plenty of motivation tonight to beat the Houston Astros (67-87).

Chris Young has proven that he still has plenty left in the tank this season.  The veteran right-hander has gone 12-8 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.198 WHIP over 28 starts and one relief appearance in 2014.

Young is 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in five career starts against Houston.  His teams are a perfect 5-0 in those games as he has never lost.  In two starts against the Astros this season, Young is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA while allowing just five earned runs and 12 base runners over 14 innings with 14 strikeouts.

The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Mariners are 8-0 in Young's last 8 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous games.  Seattle is 6-0 in Young's last 6 Saturday starts.  The Astros are 0-4 in their last four games overall  These four trends combine for a 24-0 system backing Seattle.  Also, the Astros are 4-18 in Dallas Keuchel's last 22 starts when working on 5 days of rest.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Dog Special on Georgia State +35

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have survived a couple of scares up to this point.  They beat Hawaii (17-16) on the road as a 17.5-point favorite, Eastern Washington (59-52) at home as a 17-point favorite, and Illinois (44-19) at home as a 13-point favorite.

Georgia State (1-2) could easily be 3-0 right now.  It beat Abilene Christian 38-37 as a 4-point home favorite, lost to New Mexico State (31-34) as a 3-point home favorite, and lost to Air Force (38-48) as a 12-point home dog.

I simply believe that Washington is overvalued right now.  This is a team that lost a ton of talent from last year's squad and is in rebuilding mode despite the 3-0 start.  Only beating Hawaii by a single point and Eastern Washington by a touchdown just goes to show how much work this team has to do to get better in Chris Petersen's first year on the job.

In fact, Washington was actually outgained by 88 total yards in that 17-16 win at Hawaii.  It was also outgained by 37 yards in its 59-52 win over Eastern Washington.  It only outgained Illinois by 113 total yards despite winning by 25 last week.  So, despite being 3-0, this team is actually being outgained 445-449 on average through three games, which isn't the sign of a good team.

Georgia State, meanwhile, has outgained all three of its opponents.  That's why it easily could be 3-0 right now.  It outgained Abiline Christian by 67 yards, NMSU by 21 yards, and Air Force by 10 yards.  That effort against a quality Air Force team really shows that this squad is capable of.  The Panthers are outgaining teams 524-491 on average for the season. Clearly, they have a potent offensive attack that is capable of putting up points on Washington and easily staying within this 35-point spread. 

Quarterback Nick Arbuckle has passed for 1,121 yards and seven touchdowns in three games.  He has three solid targets in tight end Joel Ruiz (15 receptions, 223 yards, two touchdowns) and wideouts Robert Davis (16-202) and LynQuez Blair (15-212-3).   Inside linebacker Joseph Peterson (39 tackles) and outside linebacker Jarrell Robinson (five tackles for loss, two sacks) are Georgia State’s most productive defenders.

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington, which has its Pac-12 opener on deck.  Not only is it their opener, but the Huskies will be playing Stanford, which is a game they will be looking ahead to.  They won't be motivated enough against Georgia State to win this game by more than five touchdowns.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia State give Washington a scare here.

The Panthers have turned the ball over eight times already, while the Huskies have turned it over only once.  The Panthers at least have an excuse for not opening 3-0 like they easily could have due to those turnovers.  The Huskies have no excuse for their close wins over Hawaii & Eastern Washington because they have committed just one turnover.  Meanwhile, a whopping 56 of their 120 points have come off of opponent's turnovers.

Georgia State is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 3-14 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +14

Missouri (3-0) has picked up right where it left off last year as SEC East champs. It beat South Dakota State 38-18 at home before playing a couple of tougher opponents. It thumped Toledo 49-24 on the road in Week 2 and then beat UCF 38-10 at home last week.

Indiana (1-1) beat Indiana State 28-10 at home in its opener. It then had a bye week before falling on the road to Bowling Green 42-45 last weekend.

This line opened at Missouri -16 and has been bet down to -13.5 as of this writing for good reason. I look for the Hoosiers to give the Tigers a run for their money Saturday afternoon and to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset. Indiana is a team that should be improved this year with 17 returning starters, while Missouri should be in rebuilding mode with only eight starters back.

I realize that doesn’t appear to be the case so far, but Missouri’s wins have been much closer than the final scores would indicate. It has yet to outgain a team by more than 100 yards, yet it has three victories of 20 or more points. It only outgained South Dakota State by 28 yards in the opener, which is absolutely terrible. It also only outgained Toledo by 94 yards in its 25-point win, and then UCF by 23 yards in its 28-point win. This team is living off of turnovers, which is a dangerous way to live.

Indiana's 18-point win over Indiana State was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It actually outgained the Sycamores by 396 total yards for the game. It also outgained Bowling Green by 11 yards last week in a losing effort. That’s the same Bowling Green team that won the MAC last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hoosiers were looking ahead to this game against Missouri as well knowing that they want payback after losing by 17 at home last year.

Indiana boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Indeed, it ranks 9th in the FBS in total offense at 574.0 yards per game. Nate Sudfeld is completing 71.2 percent of his passes, and Tevin Coleman is a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy. He has already rushed for 437 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.3 yards per carry through two games.

This is a huge letdown spot for Missouri, which has a game at South Carolina on deck, which will be its SEC opener. The Tigers cannot wait for a shot at revenge on the Gamecocks after losing to them in double-overtime at home last year. That lost nearly cost them the SEC East Title.  It's only human nature for them to let down here, and that's a big reason why the Hoosiers will cover.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +15

BYU (3-0) has taken care of business so far. It went on the road in its opener and beat UConn 35-10 before traveling to Austin and coming away with a 41-7 win over Texas. It also beat Houston by a final of 33-25 last week.

Virginia (2-1) gave UCLA a run for its money at home, but fell short by a final of 20-28. It then topped Richmond 45-13 at home before knocking off previously ranked Louisville 23-21 at home last week.

Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this year. You don’t nearly upset UCLA and then upset Louisville without being a quality team. The signs were there for a turnaround this year as Mike London has been one of the most underrated recruiters in his time at Virginia, but it just hasn’t led to results yet. It is clearly leading to results in 2014 as this is his best team yet with 17 returning starters from last year.

Without question, the Cavaliers have one of the elite defenses in the country, which is going to allow them to keep this game close against BYU. They held a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards and nearly won that game despite the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns. They also held a Bobby Petrino-coached Louisville offense to 282 total yards while forcing four turnovers last week.

The area of the Virginia defense that is going to pay off in this game is its front seven. The Cavaliers are only giving up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. That’s huge because BYU is primarily a running team that averages 259 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. They have a great running QB in Taysom Hill, but he’ll be forced to try and use his arm more in this one, which is his biggest weakness.

Virginia beat BYU 19-16 at home last year behind a great defensive effort. It allowed just 362 total yards in the game, forced three fumbles that were all recovered by BYU, and intercepted Hill once. Hill finished that game 13 of 40 passing for 175 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while rushing for just 42 yards on 11 carries. The Cavaliers are simply built to stop teams like BYU who rely heavily on the run just as they did last year. The scary thing is that their defense is five times better in 2014.

While the Cavaliers had plenty to celebrate with their win over Louisville, they quickly turned their attention to BYU with a players-only meeting.  "We just gotta stay hungry," receiver Canaan Severin told the school's official website. "Henry (Coley) just wanted to get that point across: You can't be satisfied just by getting that big win. We want more wins than that. We can talk about the win for a whole week, or we can prepare for BYU, and that's what we did."

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BYU is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I simply believe the Cougars are being overvalued here because they are in the national spotlight due to their 3-0 start, which has earned them the No. 21 ranking in the country.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina +3

The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) have certainly been impressive to this point.  They beat NC Central at home before giving South Carolina a run for its money on the road in a 23-33 loss.  They bounced back with one of the biggest upsets last week, topping Virginia Tech on the road 28-21.

North Carolina (2-0) has only played two games thus far, beating Liberty 56-29 and San Diego State 31-27 at home.  It has had a bye week to prepare for East Carolina heading into this one, which is a huge advantage.

I simply believe that the Pirates are overvalued here as the favorites because of their win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, VA Tech was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Ohio State the previous week.  Now, ECU is in a letdown spot off its win over the Hokies.  That's just the nature of college football folks.  ECU will not bring the same effort it had against VA Tech.

UNC, meanwhile, will be highly motivated for a win here after getting embarrassed by ECU at home by a final of 55-31 last year.  However, QB Marquise Williams did not play in that game against ECU.  All Williams did after being named the starter for the second half of the season was lead the Tar Heels to wins in six of their final seven games with the only loss coming by two points to Duke.

Williams is now 8-1 in his last nine starts for UNC.  He passed for 1,698 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions last year, while also leading the team in rushing (536 yards, 6 TD).  Williams is among 15 returning starters for a Tar Heels team that is expected to compete for an ACC Title.  He is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 424 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores thus far in 2014.

UNC is 12-3-1 all-time against ECU having NEVER lost two straight in this series.  East Carolina is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games.  The Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  ECU is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* Florida/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high in this rivalry between Florida (2-0) and Alabama (3-0) Saturday.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle similar to the games these teams have played in recent years.  The books are giving us an absolute gift here, so let's take advantage.

I believe the reason this number is inflated is because these teams have combined to go 4-1 to the over so far this season.  Last week, both played in high-scoring games.  Florida beat Kentucky 36-30, and Alabama beat Southern Miss 52-12.  However, that Florida game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation, and it went to three overtimes to reach that 66-point total.  They only had 40 combined points at the end of regulation.

Without question, these are two of the best defenses in the country.  I believe the perception of Alabama's defense is that it is not as good as in year's past because it gave up 23 points to West Virginia.  Well, after seeing the Mountaineers put up nearly 700 yards of offense and 40 points on a very good Maryland defense last week, it's clearly that the WVU offense is better than it gets credit for.  So holding them to 23 points is not bad.

Florida has been nothing short of dominant defensively each of the last six years.  It has held teams to an average of 314 or fewer yards per game in all six seasons.  This is an elite stop unit once again with seven starters back from last year.  Alabama has allowed 287 or fewer total yards per game in each of the past six seasons.  It has also allowed 14.3 or fewer points per game in all six years.

While these are all important facts as to why I like the UNDER, none is as important as how these teams have fared against one another in recent years.  Alabama & Florida have combined for 48, 37, 45, 51, 41, 38 & 41 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That makes for a perfect 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1999 pertaining to today's total set of 51 points, which is way too high.  They have combined to average 43 points per game in their last seven meetings.

Alabama is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  The Crimson Tide are 30-10 to the UNDER in their last 40 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Gators last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa Hawkeyes +7

Pittsburgh (3-0) has taken care of business thus far with a perfect start to the season. It beat Delaware 62-0 at home before going on the road to take down Boston College (30-20) and Florida International (42-25) each of the past two weeks.

Iowa (2-1) has gotten off to a shaky start to say the least. It escaped with a 28-20 home win over Northern Iowa before a 17-13 triumph at home against Ball State. Its luck ran out last week with a 17-20 home loss to Iowa State.

This line opened right around a pick ‘em before the season. I understand that everyone should adjust their power rankings based on what they see on the field, but I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here. They have swung the line a full seven points in Pittsburgh’s favor based on what’s happened so far. I still believe the Hawkeyes are the better team, and that will show on the field Saturday.

The betting public is way down on Iowa right now because it has survived a couple scares from Northern Iowa and Ball State, while losing to Iowa State. The thing is that this team has almost always played up and down to its competition ever since Kirk Ferentz has been there. The Hawkeyes will be hungry for a win after blowing a 14-3 lead to the Cyclones last week. They tend to respond well following a loss to Iowa State, going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in this situation.

Pittsburgh is getting way too much respect following its 3-0 start against very weak competition. Indeed, Delaware, Boston College and Florida International are all terrible teams. Sure, BC beat USC last week, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Trojans, who were coming off a win over Stanford the previous week and should have lost that game. The Panthers only beat FIU, which went 1-11 last season, by 17 as a 24.5-point favorite.

Both Iowa and Pittsburgh play very similar styles, which is why I believe this game will go right down to the wire, thus the value is with the 7-point underdog.  That has been the case the past two times that these teams have played each other, both of which have come since 2008.  The two meetings were decided by a combined five points with a 31-27 home win by Iowa (2011) and a 21-20 home win by Pitt (2008).

Iowa leans heavily on the run, averaging 36 carries per game. Pittsburgh relies even more heavily on it, averaging 53 per game. The Panthers only throw the ball 18 times per game thus far. Iowa’s biggest strength is its run defense, which is giving up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry.

Iowa is 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry. The Hawkeyes are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. great offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game. Iowa is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +122

The Cleveland Indians (79-73) trail the reeling Oakland A's (83-69) by just four games for that final wild card spot in the American League with 10 games to play.  They still have an outside shot because they have won their last three games to put themselves into position.

Terry Francona still has this team believing, and they are responding right now, including last night's 13-inning win.  Minnesota (65-87) is in a huge letdown spot here after taking two of three from the AL Central-leading Tigers last series, including an 8-4 win in Game 3 to take the series.

Trevor Bauer has held his own this season, posting a 4.16 ERA over 24 starts.  He is coming off a very solid start at Detroit in which he allowed just one earned run over five innings of work.  Phil Hughes has the better numbers this season, but he has struggled at home to the tune of a 4.45 ERA over 15 starts.

The Indians are 87-42 in their last 129 vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 4-1 in Bauer's last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 33-72 in their last 105 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  Cleveland is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Minnesota.  Take the Indians Friday.

20* UConn/South Florida AAC Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 46

I am taking the UNDER in this game between UConn and South Florida featuring two of the worst offenses in the country.  I look for a defensive battle in this game Friday night, which seems to be the case every time these AAC foes get together.

South Florida ranks 116th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense.  It is averaging just 300.3 total yards per game this season.  UConn has actually been worse on that side of the ball, ranking 118th in total offense at 289.3 yards per game.  If you like ugly football, then you'll love this game.

Both defenses have shown me enough to know that they are good enough to stop each other's offenses.  UConn only gave up 292 total yards last week against Boise State, which is saying a lot because the Broncos have a very good offense.  South Florida only gave up 24 points and 317 total yards to Maryland two weeks ago.  That's the same Terrapins offense that put up 37 points on West Virginia last week.

Now, back to the part where these teams always play in low-scoring games.  The winner of the last four meetings has scored 19 points or fewer.  They have combined for 23, 19, 26 and 35 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  In fact, six of their last seven meetings have seen 37 or fewer combined points.  I see no reason for that to change in 2014 with how putrid these offenses are again.

The UNDER is 8-0 in South Florida's last eight games following an over in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games after allowing 42 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South Total DOMINATOR on OVER 44.5

Both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off low-scoring games, which I believe had kept this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons are coming off a 10-24 loss at Cincinnati, while the Bucs are coming off a 17-19 home loss to St. Louis.

In fact, the Bucs have faced back-to-back elite defenses in the Panthers and Rams.  That's why I don't think we've seen what this offense behind Josh McCown, stud receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, as well as the up-and-coming Bobby Rainey can do.  Though Rainey did rush for 144 yards last week against a very solid Rams' front seven.

I look for the Bucs to finally break through with a bunch of points this week against an Atlanta defense that is soft.  The Falcons are giving up a ridiculous 29.0 points and 472.0 yards per game this season.  They haven't been able to stop the run or the pass.  They are allowing 154 yards on the ground and 317 through the air.  They don't even have a sack yet, and they clearly have not improved on this side of the ball over last year.

The Bucs have put up decent numbers defensively, allowing 19.5 points and 336.5 yards per game thus far.  However, when you consider that they've played two terrible offenses with backup quarterbacks, you cannot give them much credit.  Derek Anderson started for Carolina in Week 1, while Austin Davis started for St. Louis in Week 2.  This defense isn't as good as advertised because of it.  Plus, the Bucs are expected to be without Gerald McCoy (hand, doubtful), DE Adrian Clayborn is out for the season, while LB Mason Foster and DE Michael Johnson are both questionable.

Atlanta is clearly improved offensively with the healthy returns of both Julio Jones and Roddy White, as well as the addition of Devin Hester this season.  Steven Jackson is also healthy and running well.  The Falcons put up 37 points on the Saints in their home opener.  They are averaging a whopping 438.5 yards of total offense per game.  It appears that this team is going to have to try and win a lot of shootouts again this season.

When you look at how these teams have fared against one another recently, it's also easy to like the over.  Atlanta and Tampa Bay have combined for 47 or more points in five of their last seven meetings.  Last year, they combined for 54 points in a 31-23 home victory by Atlanta, and 69 points in a 41-28 home win by Tampa Bay.

The OVER is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday games.  Atlanta is 28-13 to the OVER in its last 41 games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 43-18 to the OVER in their last 61 after scoring 3 points or less in the first half of their last game.  Take the OVER on this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -126

The Cleveland Indians (78-73) know they need a big finish to make the postseason.  They are five games back of both the A's and Royals for the two wild card spots in the American League.  The clearly have not quit, winning each of the past two days to give themselves a fighting chance.

Danny Salazar is one of the best young starters in the game today.  He has gone 6-7 with a 4.22 ERA over 18 starts with 103 strikeouts in 98 innings.  In his lone career start against Houston, Salazar allowed one earned run over six innings in a 3-2 Cleveland win on August 23rd.

Scott Feldman is having a decent season for Houston (67-85), going 8-11 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.335 WHIP over 27 starts.  He is coming off three straight starts against AL West opponents in the Angels, A's & Rangers, and I believe this is a letdown spot for him.

Cleveland is 36-9 (+24.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Feldman is 7-22 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Houston is 2-18 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base this season.  The Indians are 86-42 in their last 128 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Astros are 60-148 in their last 208 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Indians Thursday.

20* Auburn/Kansas State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 65.5

I look for this contest between No. 5 Auburn and No. 20 Kansas State to be a defensive battle tonight.  Having two weeks to prepare for one another will certainly favor the defenses in this one.

Also, even though they never play each other, both teams will be very familiar with each other.  That's because Auburn and Kansas State both run similar systems.  They both love the read-option with quarterbacks who are great runners but not the best throwers, especially Nick Marshall of the Tigers.

Kansas State's defense has practiced against its first-team offense all offseason and into the regular season as well.  That will help its D get ready for what it will face Thursday.  The same can be said for the Tigers D as they are used to seeing their first-team offense.  That familiarity will make points hard to come by as both teams will be ready for what they see.

Kansas State has played some high-powered offenses through the years with low-scoring games being the result.  They played Oregon in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl in a 17-35 loss.  They played Arkansas in the 2011 Cotton Bowl and lost 16-29.  They also played Baylor last year and lost 25-35.  As you can see, all of those final scores would up finishing under 65.5 points.

Auburn is known for having an explosive offense, but when you look at its results from last year, it's clear to see that there is some value with the UNDER.  Indeed, Auburn and its opponents finished with 65 or fewer combined points in 10 of its 14 games last year.

Stopping the run is going to be the key to this game obviously.  Well, both teams are well-equipped to do so.  The Tigers held Arkansas to just 153 rushing yards in their opener, which is a huge accomplishment because the Razorbacks are one of the best running teams in the country.  For the season, the Tigers are giving up 109 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

Kansas State is only giving up 87 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry in 2014.  This is a team that has been dominant against the run over the past five years.  Indeed, it has allowed 139 or fewer rushing yards per game in four of the five years.  It has also allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of those five seasons.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Auburn's last seven games following a bye week.  I see no way the final combined score of this game exceeds 65 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER 65.5 points Thursday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners +107

The Seattle Mariners (81-69) are right in the thick of the AL wild card race.  They are just one game back of Kansas City for the second wild card spot and two games back of Oakland for the first.  They beat the Angels 13-2 last night and really should keep the hits coming tonight.

That's because they are up against C.J. Wilson, who has completely lost it this season.  The left-hander has posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.463 WHIP over 28 starts.  He has gone 2-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in his last three starts.  Wilson is 0-3 with a 4.98 ERA in his last three starts against Seattle.

James Paxton is the real deal.  The left-hander has gone 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He will be a real force if the Mariners make the playoffs teaming with Felix Hernandez & Hisashi Iwakuma.  Paxton is also 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.667 WHIP In two career starts against Los Angeles.

Seattle is 9-1 against the money line after scoring nine runs or more this season.  Paxton is 10-1 against the money line in night games over the last two seasons.  The Mariners are 5-0 in Paxtons last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Angels are 1-4 in Wilson's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -119

The Washington Nationals (86-63) will clinch the NL East with a victory over the Atlanta Braves (75-75) tonight.  They would love nothing more than to do it against their division rivals, who won the NL East last year.  I look for them to get it done Tuesday.

Tanner Roark has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues this season.  He has gone 13-10 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 29 starts.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in four career starts against Atlanta.

Aaron Harang is having a mediocre year for Atlanta.  He has gone 11-10 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 30 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in his last three starts.  Harang is 3-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 12 career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 52-25 in their last 77 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Braves are 2-9 in Harang's last 11 starts.  Atlanta is 0-5 in Harang's last five home starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last six vs. a start with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Atlanta is 0-6 in Harang's last six starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Eagles/Colts ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3

I’ve harped on it a lot before the season, and I’m going to continue to do so. The Colts were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 records over the past two seasons would indicate. Andrew Luck simply willed this team to those records, but he can’t continue to do it.

They were outgained on the season in both 2012 and 2013, and they have gone 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less during this time. There will be some regression in this department, and that started last week with their 7-point loss to the Broncos in a game where Denver never really felt threatened after leading 24-0.

The fact of the matter is that Luck just doesn’t have much talent around him. The defense is atrocious as it gave up 44 points to the Chiefs in the playoffs last year, and if the Broncos wouldn’t have taken their foot off the gas after a 24-0 lead, they could have scored 50.

Now, the Colts lost Robert Mathis (19.5 sacks last year) to a season-ending Achilles injury. He had 14 more sacks than second place on the team. Indianapolis also has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, both at protecting Luck and paving the way for a putrid rushing attack.

Certainly the start by the Eagles last week was concerning, but their ability to overcome a 17-0 deficit without a problem was equally if not more impressive. They rallied in a hurry and wound up winning 34-17. They dominated the box score against an improved Jaguars team.

They outgained Jacksonville 420-306 for the game, or by 114 total yards. The only reason this game was close for a while was because the Eagles turned the ball over three times in the first half. They didn’t give it away once after intermission and showed what they are capable of.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) – off a road loss, in September games are 91-51 (64.1%) ATS since 1983. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

I have no doubt that Philadelphia is the better team and that should show up on the field with an outright victory Monday. Getting the three points is just an added bonus and an insurance plan.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-108)

While the Detroit Tigers (83-66) haven't completely lived up to expectations thus far in 2014, they are still in first place in the AL Central by 1.5 games.  They have also turned it on here of late when these games have mattered the most.  I look for them to win by 2-plus runs against the lowly Minnesota Twins (63-86) in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Max Scherzer is having another dominant season to really prove his worth.  The right-hander is 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.168 WHIP over 30 starts this year.  Scherzer is 8-2 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 14 career starts against Minnesota.  He has won each of his last five starts against the Twins with three of those coming by 2-plus runs.

Anthony Swarzak makes just his second start of the season for Minnesota.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.342 WHIP over 73 innings pitched this year with almost all of those coming as a reliever.  Swarzak has been owned by Detroit, going 0-2 with a monstrous 12.65 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers.

Minnesota is 6-25 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season, losing by 2.4 runs/game.  The Twins are 4-28 (-23.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season, losing by 2.9 runs/game. 

The Tigers are 42-13 in Scherzer's last 55 starts as a favorite.  Scherzer is 6-0 against the run line (+7.4 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.  Take the Tigers Monday.

15* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +7

The San Francisco 49ers (1-0) get a visit from the Chicago Bears (0-1) on Sunday, September 14th in an NFC showdown. The 49ers made pretty easy work of the Dallas Cowboys in their opener. They jumped out to a 28-3 lead by halftime and held on for a 28-17 victory. The Bears erased a double-digit halftime deficit to the Bills to force overtime, but ultimately lost at home by a final of 20-23.

I believe this line is a bit of an overreaction from what happened last week between these teams. The 49ers’ win over the Cowboys was nowhere near as big of a blowout as the score would indicate. Conversely, the Bears probably should have beaten the Bills because they arguably outplayed them. A closer look at the box scores from those two games tell the story.

San Francisco was actually outgained by Dallas by 66 total yards (319-382). The Cowboys simply gave this game away by committing four turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown by the 49ers on their opening series. Tony Romo threw three interceptions in the loss as well. The 49ers’ offense didn’t have to do anything special in this one, and they certainly didn't as 319 yards against that defense is not very good.

The Bears, on the other hand, actually outgained the Bills by 67 total yards (427-360). The offense was explosive, while the defense looked improved over last year. However, like the Cowboys, the Bears simply self-destructed with turnovers. They committed three turnovers in the game, including a pair of interceptions from Jay Cutler, who still had a solid game overall with 349 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Asking the 49ers to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much. Their biggest weakness on defense is at the cornerback positions, where they are really banged up right now. They also lost a pair of corners in the offseason in Tarrell Brown and Carlos Rodgers, so they were already going to take a step back at the position. Now, both starting corners in Chris Culliver and Tramaine Brock are banged up and questionable to play Sunday night.

San Francisco already had a ton of problems defensively between Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman and Ray McDonald all likely missing significant time this year.  Look for Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Jay Cutler to have big games in this one against a suspect San Francisco defense, especially with the questions at cornerback now.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Rams +6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) welcome the St. Louis Rams (0-1) to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, September 14th. These teams have played each of the past two seasons with the Rams taking both meetings, including a 23-13 home victory last year.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back from ugly losses. The Rams were destroyed at home by the Vikings by a final of 6-34 in an absolute laugher. The Buccaneers made it interesting after tailing 17-0 at home to the Panthers, but eventually fell 14-20.

I believe this line is a complete overreaction from the Rams’ ugly 28-point loss to the Vikings last week. A closer look into the box score shows that this game was much more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Vikings only outgained the Rams by 28 total yards in the game, but they took advantage of two St. Louis interceptions, returning one 80 yards for a touchdown late in the game. Nothing more could have gone wrong for the Rams.

I still have a good feeling that this St. Louis team is better than it gets credit for. Sure, the season-ending injury to Sam Bradford is concerning, but he was never that great anyway. The rest of the talent around him on both sides of the ball is very good, and I look for that to show going forward.

Austin Davis played pretty well in place of an injured Shaun Hill, completing 16 of 23 passes for 192 yards with an interception against the Vikings. He is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league that not too many know about, though Hill will start if healthy according to Jeff Fisher.

The Buccaneers have no business being this heavily favored after the performance they put on against the Panthers, who were playing without starting QB Cam Newton. They actually trailed 17-0 in that contest and only made it interesting in the fourth quarter when it was too late.

They were outgained by 70 total yards in the loss as the offense amassed just 264 yards. Josh McCown looked lost for most of the game, completing 22 of 35 passes for 183 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Doug Martin rushed nine times for nine yards as well.

The Rams were dominant defensively in their 23-13 home win over the Buccaneers last season. They outgained the Bucs 277-170 for the game. Tampa Bay could do absolutely nothing on offense. I look for that to be the case again in the rematch as the Rams still have one of the best defenses in the game even after last week’s off performance. Zac Stacy rushed for 104 yards and a score against the Bucs last season, and Kellen Clemens completed 16 of 20 passes in the win.

St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. The Buccaneers are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 home games. Tampa Bay is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC opponents. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a losing record. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -130

The Atlanta Braves (75-73) are three games back of Pittsburgh for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are in must-win situations from here on out.  I look for them to respond with a win Sunday over the MLB-worst Texas Rangers (56-92).

Mike Minor has really turned it on of late.  The left-hander has posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has never faced the Rangers, which is an advantage for him Sunday as they have never seen him.

Colby Lewis is 9-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  The right-hander is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in 14 home starts as well.  He is easily one of the worst starters in the big leagues.

The Braves are 5-0 in Minor's last five Sunday starts.  The Rangers are 18-43 in their last 61 home games.  Texas is 21-57 in its last 78 games overall.  The Rangers are 1-6 in Lewis' last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR New England Patriots -5

The New England Patriots (0-1) travel to face the Minnesota Vikings (1-0) on Sunday, September 14th in a non-conference showdown in Week 2. The Patriots have won three in a row in this series, including a 28-18 home win in their most recent meeting in 2010.

The Patriots could not hold on to a 20-10 halftime lead over the Dolphins last week. They wound up giving up 23 unanswered points in the second half to lose by a final of 20-33. The Vikings, meanwhile, dominated from start to finish in an impressive 34-6 road win over the St. Louis Rams.

It’s usually a wise move to back the Patriots when they are coming off a loss under head coach Bill Belichick. He is the best head coach in the league at making adjustments and getting his team to respond. You can bet that they will come back with a much better effort after getting dominated in the second half against the Dolphins.

After all, Belichick is 11-2 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of New England. Belichick is also 11-3 ATS off an upset loss to a division foe as the coach of the Patriots.

Minnesota’s 34-6 win over St. Louis seemed to be a real blowout, but a closer look at the box score shows us that it wasn’t the blowout that it appeared to be. The Vikings only outgained the Rams 346-318 for the game, or by 28 total yards.

St. Louis simply gave this game away with its two interceptions, one that was returned 80 yards for a touchdown by Harrison Smith. I am not willing to give the Vikings too much credit for this win against a St. Louis team that was playing without starting QB Sam Bradford.

I loved the Patriots at -3 when this line came out, and I still love them at -5 now that it has been determined that Adrian Peterson will not play.  He is one of the few players who is worth a full two points to a team, and probably more to Minnesota.  Without him, it will be much easier for the Patriots to stop Matt Cassel and company.

The Patriots are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Vikings with an average margin of victory of 13.7 points per game. New England is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a division game. The Patriots are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games following a loss. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a win by 14 points or more.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +6

The Cincinnati Bengals are getting a little too much respect here due to their dominance at home last season. They have never had one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and they still do not despite last year’s aberration where they went 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS.

Even though they won in Baltimore last week, I still don’t believe this team is as good as they were a year ago. They lost offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, and those changes will have a negative impact on this team as the season goes on.

I really wasn’t all that impressed with the Bengals last week as they beat up on a Ravens team that just isn’t that good anymore. They really didn’t outplay them either as their defense was torched for 420 total yards by a Ravens offense that ranked 29th in the league last year. The Bengals had to settle for five field goals offensively, and their only touchdown was on a fluky 77-yard bomb to A.J. Green that won the game for them.  Joe Flacco threw for 345 yards for the Ravens.

Atlanta, on the other hand, was mighty impressive against New Orleans in its 37-34 (OT) victory. It torched a Saints’ defense that finished 4th in the league last year in total defense. Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 448 yards and three touchdowns as the Falcons racked up a whopping 568 yards of total offense in the win.  There's no question that the Saints have one of the best secondaries in the league.  Ryan will torch an aging Bengals secondary this week.

Steven Jackson even looked good running the ball as they amassed 123 yards on the ground. It’s amazing what this offense can do with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Devin Hester and Harry Douglas are underrated playmakers as well.  All four of these receivers finished with at least five catches and 69 yards apiece in the win.

The Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Plays on underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 46-13 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. This team is way undervalued off last year’s 4-12 disaster, while the Bengals are overvalued after winning 11 games a year ago and going 8-0 at home.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* AFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills PK

The Miami Dolphins (1-0) travel to face the Buffalo Bills (1-0) in Week 2 NFL action on Sunday, September 14th. The Bills actually won both meetings last year with a 23-21 road win on October 20th and a 19-0 home victory on December 22nd.

Both of these teams came up with impressive wins as underdogs last week. The Bills topped Chicago on the road 23-20 (OT) while the Dolphins took care of the Patriots 33-20 at home. This is a very rare occasion where both teams are tied for first place in the AFC East.

The Bills made a statement with their 23-20 road win over Chicago last week. They forced two Jay Cutler interceptions in the win, and stayed true to form offensively, rushing for 193 yards as a team. E.J. Manuel went 16 of 22 passing for 173 yards with a touchdown and an interception to manage the game very well. Holding the Bears to just 20 points on the road is no small feat.

I believe this is a great match-up for the Bills, who ranked 2nd in the league in rushing last year and 4th in pass defense. Miami’s biggest weakness right now is its run defense, and it is a pass-oriented offense behind Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins were without three starting linebackers against the Patriots by the time the game ended, but New England could not take advantage. Instead, it threw the ball 56 times in its 20-33 loss as it was playing from behind.

The Dolphins will be without at least two of their three starting linebackers this week. Dannell Ellerbe (hip) has landed on injured reserve, while Koa Misi (ankle) is doubtful. Phillip Wheeler (thumb) is listed as questionable, as is Jordan Tripp (chest). Having solid linebacker play is essential to stopping the run, and the Dolphins won’t have that this week, or perhaps for the rest of the season.

Buffalo beat Miami both times last year. It limited the Dolphins to 293 yards of offense in a 23-21 road win, but I was more impressed with the 103 yards of offense it allowed in a 19-0 home win. I was also impressed with how the Bills ran it down the Dolphins’ throats in that victory. They ammassed 203 rushing yards and 390 total yards overall, outgaining them 390-103 for the game. Fred Jackson rushed for 105 yards on 18 carries, and C.J. Spiller had 83 on 21 attempts.

Miami is 6-17 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over a division rival since 1992. The Dolphins are 22-38 ATS off an upset win as an underdog since 1992. Buffalo is 30-14 ATS off a win by 3 points or less since 1992. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 46-13 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. 

I also believe this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Dolphins off such a big win over the Patriots.  They have been getting patted on the back all week by the media, while the Bills just aren't getting the respect they deserve for their road win.  I look for Buffalo to make a statement at home in this one.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.