Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now because they have won six straight to improve to 9-2 on the season and in a first-place tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  However, the Hawks have benefited from a home-heavy schedule, and an easy schedule at that.

The Charlotte Hornets are 7-3 on the season yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have played five games on the road and five at home.  The Hornets are outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per game at home this year.

The Hornets did lost three out of four meetings with the Hawks last season, but they lost the first two by a combined five points.  They beat the Hawks 107-84 as 3-point home dogs and lost 92-94 as 2-point home dogs in their two home meetings.

Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and could be without both Dwight Howard and Thobo Sefolosha.  Charlotte had two days off before this game and will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

20* Michigan/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -1

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 3-0 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, and a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites.

Milton (13.0 ppg, 4.3 apg), Brown (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) and Moore (9.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (22.7 ppg, 9.0 rpb) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (11.7 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

No question Michigan's 79-61 win over Marquette yesterday was impressive.  But everything went right for the Wolverines in the first half.  They weren't impressive in their first two games, a 76-58 home win over a Howard team that Marquette beat by 32.  And they only won by 12 over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.  I think they'll be overmatched here.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -1

I won with Marquette in their first two games in dominant performances.  The Golden Eagles won 95-71 as 2-point favorites over Vanderbilt on a neutral court, covering the spread by 22 points.  They also won 81-49 over Howard as 26-point favorites, covering the spread by 6 points.

That was the same Howard team that Michigan had only beaten by 18 in their season opener at home.  So the fact that Marquette lost to Michigan 79-61 last night was pretty much a complete fluke.  The Golden Eagles played terrible in the first half and trailed by 24 points.  But they cut the lead to 12 in the second half and played more up to their capability.

I look for the Golden Eagles to come out hungry tonight to make amends for that loss to Michigan.  They were maybe shell-shocked by playing in Madison Square Garden, which could have contributed to their first-half performance.  But they won't be tonight, and this is a team that won 20 games last year and is on the rise in the third season under Steve Wojciechowski.  They returned four starters this season, including three who averaged double-digits scoring last year.

I believe Pitt is going to struggle this season replacing head coach Jamie Dixon with Kevin Stallings, who consistently underachieved at Vanderbilt.  That has proven to be the case.  Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home, which is the same EMU team that SMU beat by 27.  Pitt only beat Gardner Webb by 19 while SMU beat that same team by 28.  And then Pitt proceeded to lose to SMU 67-76 last night.

Marquette is 8-1 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Pitt is 19-42-1 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Panthers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Marquette Friday.

15* Bulls/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Jazz have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Five of those six wins came by 11 points or more with five of them on the road.  In fact, they've played eight road games this season compared to just four at home, so their 7-5 record is impressive to this point.

I like the value we are getting with the Jazz as only 3.5-point favorites here.  The Chicago Bulls come in way overvalued due to three straight victories.  D-Wade won his return to Miami, then they beat the short-handed Wizards who were without John Wall and Bradley Beal.

The Bulls' 113-88 win at Portland on Tuesday was impressive, but it also had them overvalued here.  And the Jazz last played on Monday in a loss to the Grizzlies, so they will be motivated to bounce back, plus they've had two days to prepare for the Bulls.

The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +8.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves simply own the Sun Belt Conference.  They aren't going to be eager to let the Troy Trojans take their reign tonight as both teams come in unbeaten in conference play with the winning likely to win the title.

Arkansas State has really picked up its play in conference action.  It is 5-0 while scoring 33.4 points per game and giving up just 16.2 points per contest.  The defense has gotten healthy as the season has gone on, and stud defensive ends Ja'Von Roland-Jones and Chris Odom have combined for 15 sacks.

Sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen has really jump-started the offense since taking over.  He went 20-of-27 passing for 257 yards and two touchdowns last week in a 41-22 win over New Mexico State.  The Red Wolves didn't have to put forth much of an effort to get by NMSU, which is key with this being a short week.

Troy laid it all on the line to beat Appalachian State last week.  The Trojans prevailed 28-24 thanks to a late touchdown that proved to be the difference.  I think the Trojans could suffer a bit of a letdown here only five days later on this short week.  That game took a lot out of the Trojans.

Arkansas State has won each of the last three meetings in this series.  The Red Wolves haven't lost by more than a touchdown to Troy in any of the last five meetings.  Arkansas State has outgained six of its last seven opponents.  The Red Wolves are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, including 11-2 ATS over the past two seasons..  Arkansas State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  Bet Arkansas State Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

I've been on Marquette in each of its first two games this season, both blowout wins.  They beat Vanderbilt 95-71 on the road as 2-point favorites and Howard 81-49 at home as 26-point favorites.  That 32-point win against Howard is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.  Michigan only beat Howard by 18 at home, and it followed that up with a lackluster 12-point win over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in November road games over the last three years.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Marquette Thursday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina -3

The first point I’m going to make is that the Panthers are basically the same favorites as they were in the first meeting on the road earlier this season. They were 2.5-point road favorites over the Saints. Now they’re 3-point home favorites. That fact alone shows you that there’s some line value here with the Panthers even though they lost the first meeting 38-41 on a last-second field goal.

I still consider the Panthers a Top 5 team in the NFL despite their 3-6 record. They have simply come up short in close games while uncharacteristically losing the turnover battle up to this point. The Panthers were +20 in turnovers last year, but they are -7 this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That bad luck isn’t likely to continue.

And turnovers certainly cost the Panthers last week against the Chiefs. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but somehow managed to give up 20 unanswered points. It wasn’t the defense’s fault as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, while Kelvin Benjamin fumbled deep in his own territory with only a few seconds remaining to set up the Chiefs’ game-winning field goal.

This Carolina defense is starting to play like it did last season ever since its bye in Week 7. The Panthers have given up an average of just 16.7 points and 311.7 yards per game in their last three contests. And again, 10 of those points against the Chiefs were basically given up by the offense. I expect Newton and company to be much more careful with the ball this week.

The Saints trailed most the way against the Broncos last week. I think they’re getting way too much respect from the books now after winning four of their last five games overall. One of those was the 3-point win over Carolina, which will only have the Panthers motivated for revenge at home this time around. After all, the Panthers had won the previous three meetings with the Saints by an average of 13.0 points per game.

While the Panthers’ defense is improving, the Saints still have an awful stop unit. They give up 29.2 points per game, 401 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. The Saints do have a great offense and one that gave the Panthers trouble in the first meeting, but again, the Panthers are playing better on that side of the ball now and will make the necessary adjustments as they try and save their season this week.

Carolina is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games revenging a loss where its opponent scored 28 points or more. The Panthers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game. Plays on favorites (CAROLINA) – revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

15* Pitt/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -4

I love the handicap on this game because it's pretty simple.  These teams have two common opponents already through their first two games, and it's easy to see which team is superior when comparing the results.

Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home and only beat Gardner Webb 99-80 at home.  SMU beat Eastern Michigan 91-64 at home and Gardner Webb 72-44 at home.

So, SMU outscored those two teams by an average of 27.5 points per game, while Pitt only outscored them by an average of 11.0 points per game.  I think we are getting a real discount here with SMU being only 4-point favorites over Pitt on a neutral court tonight when comparing common opponents.

Pitt is 3-14 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 13-39-3 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Roll with SMU Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting so much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS records.  It's time to sell high on them here as they are being asked to lay a whopping 12 points at home to the Memphis Grizzlies now.

The Grizzlies are getting healthy as Chandler Parsons is starting to shake the rust off.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 102-96 win in Utah Monday night as 6-point underdogs.  Even veteran Vince Carter is playing well, averaging 19 points on 60 percent shooting in his past three games.

Memphis is going to want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to Los Angeles on November 4th just under two weeks ago in their first meeting this season.  The Grizzlies have played the Clippers very tough in the past few seasons, going 4-5 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  I look for them to keep this game close throughout tonight.

Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS after a game committing 10-plus less turnovers than its opponents over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are extremely overvalued now off their 127-95 win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets at home last time out.  Memphis will give them a fight.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NIU/Eastern Michigan MAC ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan +3

The Eastern Michigan Eagles should be going to a bowl game for the first time since 1987 after beating Ball State 48-41 last week to get their sixth win.  Now they'll be going for their first winning season since 1995.  They have had only one winning season since 1990, so they still have a lot to play for here.

Northern Illinois is playing for nothing but pride now.  A 24-31 loss to Toledo last week dropped NIU to 3-7 on the season and assured of a losing year.  That's rare territory for the Huskies, who had made six straight trips to Detroit to play in the MAC Championship Game prior to this season.

The Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Graham.  He has made seven career starts but struggles with accuracy.  Graham completed just 53.9 percent of his passes when forced into duty in 2015, and he is completing only 55.6 percent in 2016.  He is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt this season, while Drew Hare (7.2) and Anthony Maddie (6.9) were much better before him in that department.  He's also not the same runner as Maddie (6.8 yards/carry) as he averages just 4.7 per carry.
 
NIU relies heavily on its rushing attack that averages 234 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Well, Eastern Michigan hasn't allowed more than 230 rushing yards in any game this season.  They only give up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 181 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

Eastern Michigan boasts a prolific passing attack that averages 301 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  Northern Illinois gives up 262 passing yards per game and 193 rushing yards per game for an average of 455 per contest.  Brogan Roback, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions this season while taking over for the ineffective Todd Porter, is primed for a big day through the air.  He had a 468-yard effort in last week's win over Ball State.

Eastern Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and continues to be undervalued as a home underdog here.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +7

The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back following their 93-90 win at Miami last night.  And now they could be without C Dwight Howard, who suffered a quad injury against Miami and is questionable to play tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a whopping three days' rest to get ready for the Hawks.  They last played on November 12 in a 106-96 home victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Bucks have been playing much better of late after a slow start, winning four of their last six games overall.

The Bucks won two of three meetings with the Hawks last season despite being underdogs in all three.  They won 108-101 as 4.5-point home dogs and 117-109 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They like the matchup, and the rest situation certainly favors them here as they should not be catching 7 points.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three years.  Atlanta is 49-72 ATS in its last 121 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Indiana +5

The Indiana Pacers are 5-1 at home this season and will be highly motivated for tonight's game against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  In recent years, Bankers Life Fieldhouse has been a tough place for LeBron James' teams to play. The Cavaliers beat the Pacers in Indianapolis in February last season. James's teams hadn't won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012 before that.

"Bankers Life Fieldhouse is always tough," James said. "It's been tough my whole career."

"It's a big game," Pacers coach Nate McMillan said. "The world champs are coming in here. It's kind of a game where you measure yourself."

The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after winning 121-117 at home against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.  J.R. Smith didn't play last night and is questionable to return.  If he can't play, the Cavaliers will certainly miss his outside shooting and ability to stretch the floor.

Indiana went 1-3 against Cleveland last season, but all three losses came by 5 points or less.  The Pacers actually outscored the Cavs by one point in those four meetings because their lone win came by 14 points, while their three losses came by a combined 13 points.

The Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brown +24.5

The Browns Bears and Rhode Island Rams are longtime local rivals.  This is a series that started during the 1909-1910 season with the Rams leading it 104-53 all-time.  The underdog Bears are simply going to want this one more, and they should keep it competitive.

Rhode Island is nationally ranked and overvalued now off two straight wins and covers over Dartmouth and Marist to open the season.  And I think the Rams will be looking ahead to their game against No. 24 Cincinnati and then quite possibly No. 1 Duke over the weekend at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut.

Brown did lose by 29 at Cincinnati in the opener, but came back with an impressive 88-79 home win over Niagara.  Steven Spieth had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists to just barely miss out on a triple-double.  Spieth (10.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.7 apg last year) is one of four returning starters for Brown.  The other three are Travon Blackmon (13.3 ppg, 5.5 apg), JR Hobbie (9.0 ppg, 41.9% 3-pointers) and Obi Okolie (10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Last year Rhode Island needed overtime to beat Brown 88-85 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 20 points or less and by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Only once in the 18 meetings has Rhode Island beating Brown by more than 24.5 points, which was a 25-point win in 2010.  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Bears tonight.  Bet Brown Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be underdogs at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a team that is only going to continue to improve with each game.  The Timberwolves have had some tough losses during their 3-6 start in which they've blown big leads.

However, Minnesota is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season in a 125-99 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.2 points per game in their four home games this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back losses against the top two contenders in the East in the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from those defeats and to not be able to emotionally get up to face the Timberwolves tonight.

Charlotte is 18-40 ATS in its last 58 road games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The Timberwolves are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER 208

The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers are extremely familiar with one another.  That's because they played in the Eastern Conference Finals last year that wound up going six games.  And they've already played once this season.  That familiarity makes points very hard to come by.

That has been evident in these meetings.  The Cavs and Raptors have combined for 204 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged a combined 194.8 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 208.  They combined for 185 points in a 94-91 Cleveland win in their first meeting this season.

Toronto is 10-1 UNDER in road games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16 in Cavs last 51 vs NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Ohio/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan PK

The Ohio Bobcats can afford to lose this game against Central Michigan and still win the MAC East with a home win over lowly Akron next week.  That's why I don't expect them to be fully focused on this contest tonight.

Central Michigan needs a win to get bowl eligible as it sits at just 5-5 on the season.  And there's no doubt the Chippewas will be hungry for a win for that reason, and to also put an end to a three-game losing streak.

This is the same Central Michigan team that beat Oklahoma State earlier this season.  But the Chippewas have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they are way undervalued right now.  They haven't played as well since that win over Oklahoma State, but the potential is clearly there, and I look for them to circle the wagons this week.

Central Michigan has played a much harder schedule than Ohio this season.  That makes its numbers more impressive, and by the numbers alone, it's clear that the Chippewas are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.  Ohio is outgaining teams by 39 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

The Bobcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Chippewas are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

I like the value we are getting here with the Michigan State Spartans.  They blew a 17-2 lead against Arizona and lost 65-63 on a buzzer-beater in their opener.  I think they are being undervalued because of that loss.

Kentucky is 2-0 with home wins over Stephen F. Austin (87-64) and Canisius (93-69).  But this team is very young and inexperienced as they start three freshmen.  I don't think they are ready to handle this big stage in Madison Square Garden tonight.

I also like the fact that Michigan State has had much more time to prepare and correct its mistakes.  It has had three days off since the loss to Arizona.  Kentucky has only had one day to prepare for Michigan State after beating Canisius on Sunday.

Michigan State is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS off a game where it was called for 27 or more fouls over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 12-30 ATS in their last 42 off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  Take Michigan State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -7

The Ball State Cardinals will be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They went 21-14 last season and improved from two wins in conference play to 10 in James Whitford's third season on the job.  Whitford is a former Arizona assistant and one of the most underrated coaches in the game.

Ball State's success last year was largely due to bombing from all angles as they canned 305 3-pointers while ranking 29th nationally in 3s and hitting them at a 37.2 percent clip.  Back for more are the four primary gunners in Francis Kiapway (74 3-pointers), Ryan Weber (70 3-pointers), Jeremie Tyler (59 3-pointers) and Sean Sellers.  They surround second-team All-MAC forward Franko House (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who would normally warrant a double-team.

We saw what Ball State was capable of with its 85-64 win at Saint Louis as 3.5-point favorites, easily covering the spread by 17.5 points.  The Cardinals hit 13 of 23 from 3-point range at a 56.5 percent clip.  House has 23 points and 6 rebounds, but two newcomers in Taylor Persons (21 points) and Tahjal Teague (10 points, 8 rebounds) performed well to show that the Cardinals have an absurd amount of depth.

Indiana State went 15-17 last season and lost two of its best players in Devonte Brown (15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Khristian Smith (10.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg).  The Sycamores return just one player who scored more than 7.8 points per game last season.  They lost 78-80 at Northern Illinois in OT in their opener while shooting just 34.7% from the floor.

Indiana State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Sycamores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Siena +1.5

I fully expect the Siena Saints to run away with the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title this season.  That's because they return all five starters from last year, including MAAC Defensive Player of the Year Javion Ogunyemi (14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 71 blocks) from a team that went 21-13 last season.

Also back are three double-digit scorers in Brett Bisping (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Marquis Wright (14.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Lavon Long (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Kenny Wormley (4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg) is another returning starters, and Nico Clareth (13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is a huge weapon off the bench as he canned 55 3-pointers last season.

I think the fact that Siena didn't cover as 14.5-point favorites in an 89-78 home win over Cornell in their opener has them a bit undervalued here.  But they led that game 48-34 at halftime before getting outscored after intermission.  Wright (31 points), Bisping (23 points, 15 boards), Clareth (14 points) and Ogunyemi (13 points) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Saints.

George Washington is coming off a 28-10 season while winning the NIT title.  But the losses are big for the Colonials as they part ways with three starters in Patricio Garino (14.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Kevin Larsen (12.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Joe McDonald (8.8 ppg, 3.1 apg).  The Colonials really struggled in their opener, only beating Maryland-East Shore 75-71 at home while committing 20 turnovers.

Siena is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick 'em.  Plays against any team (GEORGE WASHINGTON) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season strong with five or more straight wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Siena Tuesday.

15* Maryland/Georgetown FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown -5.5

The Georgetown Hoyas will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They return four starters in L.J. Peak (12.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Isaac Copeland (11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Marcus Derrickson (7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Bradley Hayes (8.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg).  The Hoyas opened their season with a 105-60 trouncing of USC Upstate.

Maryland will take a big step back this season after winning 27 games last year.  It only brings back one starter in Melo Trimble, and it loses four starters who were all double-digit scorers last year in Diamond Stone (12.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Jake Layman (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Rasheed Sulaimon (11.3 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Robert Carter Jr. (12.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

The Terrapins were awful in their opener as they only beat American 62-56 despiting being 21-point home favorites. They shot just 38.5% from the floor, and Trimble is simply being asked to do too much now.  They also committed 18 turnovers while only forcing 12.  Georgetown forced 26 turnovers in its opener.

The Hoyas are 39-22 ATS in their last 61 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  Georgetown is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten foes.  Maryland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  A loaded Maryland team only beat Georgetown 75-71 as 9-point home favorites last year.  It's revenge time for the Hoyas at home this time around as these teams absolutely hate each other.  Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Grizzlies and Jazz have consistently played in low-scoring games in recent meetings.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA because they are two of the few that are dominated by their big men inside.  It's Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for Memphis, and Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for Utah.

The Grizzlies and Jazz have combined for 190 or fewer points in nine consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 182, 179, 168, 177, 175, 190, 188, 178 and 182 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Grizzlies last six games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -24.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Marquette made a statement with a 95-71 win over Vanderbilt on a neutral court as 1.5-point favorites in the opener.  JaJuan Johnson had 21 points and six steals, Luke Fischer had 18 points and 7 rebounds, and Haanif Cheatham had 15 points and 6 boards to lead the way for the Golden Eagles, who shot 52.7% from the floor and held the Commodores to 39.7% shooting.
 
Howard lost 58-76 at Michigan in its opener.  The Bison were expected to have all 5 starters back this season, but they were dealt a big blow with an injury to their best player.  James Daniel might be the best player that you have never heard of.  He averaged 27.1 points per game last season to lead the nation in scoring.  He took an astonishing 37.1 percent of the team's shots, so his loss is absolutely massive for this team.

Howard is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bison are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 lined games overall.  Take Marquette Monday.

20* Bengals/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati PK

The Cincinnati Bengals are the healthiest they've been this season.  They are coming off their bye week after a tie with the Washington Redskins in London.  I really like the spot for them because of it.

The Bengals offense should be much stronger the rest of the way now that Andy Dalton has his favorite red zone target back in Tyler Eiffert.  He had nine receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins.  Now Dalton has two proven targets outside with A.J. Green, who had nine catches for 121 yards against Washington.

The New York Giants aren't nearly as healthy.  They will be without No. 2 receiver Victor Cruz due to an ankle injury, and they will also be without G Justin Pugh.  I know the Giants have won three straight coming in, but they easily could have lost all three.  They are 5-3 on the season, but all five wins came by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.

The Giants have been outgained in four of their last five games.  They were outgained by 141 yards against the Eagles last week and should have lost.  They were also outgained by 113 yards against the Rams in London, and by 185 yards against the Packers.

The Giants actually rank just 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 31.4 yards per game.  They have no running game as their offense averages just 68 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  I think that lack of balance is really going to hurt the Giants going forward.

The Bengals have great balance as they are averaging 120 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry, as well as 275 passing yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  That's impressive when you consider they have been without Eiffert for most of the season.  The Bengals are better than their 3-4-1 record as they rank 10th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 16.9 yards per game.

The Bengals are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS off a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the past two seasons.  The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Plays against teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +16.5

After back-to-back blowout victories over the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued now as 16.5-point home favorites over the Phoenix Suns.  I'll gladly fade them as I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, but they had two days off before playing the Nets yesterday.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they can handle these situations much better than the average team.  And of course they are going to get up to face the Warriors tonight.

The Suns want revenge from a 100-106 home loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs on October 30th in their first meeting this season.  That was yet another close loss for the Suns recently in this series.  Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer as the Suns have gone 3-0 ATS while being double-digit dogs each time.

Phoenix is 9-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 40-16-2 ATS in its last 58 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly-motivated for a victory at home Sunday.  They sit at just 4-4 on the season after losing three straight games coming in.  But they clearly haven't been at full health during this skid, which is the biggest reason for it.

Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury in a 15-30 loss at Miami, but tried playing through it.  He sat out the following week against New England, and it's no surprise the Steelers lost 16-27 at home.  Then they had their bye week, and Roethlisberger came back earlier than expected last week.  He was rusty and the Steelers lost 14-21 at Baltimore.

But now Roethlisberger is healthier this week, and he has told the team to follow his lead as they host the NFC-leading Dallas Cowboys.  The Steelers will be putting all of their eggs into one basket this week to get a win and stop this streak, and I look for them to do it as only 2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys.

The Steelers are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss to New England without Roethlisberger.  Their other three home games resulted in blowout wins over Cincinnati (24-16), Kansas City (43-14) and the New York Jets (31-13).  So they outscored those three teams by an average of 18.3 points per game. 

With Roethlisberger back healthy now, I expect the home dominance to continue.  After all, the Steelers have won seven straight home games in which Roethlisberger has started, and he is 67-21 in his career at Heinz Field.  He has thrown 19 touchdown passes in his past five home games as well.

Dallas could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS, currently the only team in the NFL without a loss against the spread.  The Cowboys were already a public team before this season, and the betting public has been really pouring it in on them this season now that they have delivered basically every week for backers.

And I believe that is being reflected in this line as the Cowboys are getting way too much respect from the books now.  They are only 2.5-point underdogs here when this line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.  There's no question that a healthy Steelers' team is better than the Cowboys on a neutral field, but this line indicates they would be basically a pick 'em or underdogs on a neutral field.

Dallas has benefited from playing the NFL's easiest schedule up to this point this season.  It has played non-divisional games against the 49ers, Bears and Browns, who are a combined 3-23 on the season.  The Cowboys have only played two teams that currently have winning records.  They beat the 4-3-1 Redskins, but lost to the 5-3 Giants.  The Steelers have played the NFL's 5th-toughest schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to mask a below-average defense this season by controlling the time of possession 34-26 on average.  That defense will get exposed this week against arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy in the Steelers.

The Cowboys give up an average of 5.5 yards per play, which ranks 16th in the NFL.  They have two key injuries in the secondary with S Barry Church and CB Morris Claiborne expected to miss this game.  Roethlisberger should have a field day throwing the ball against this depleted Dallas secondary.  The Cowboys allow 68% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.

Pittsburgh is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS off three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are winning by 9.7 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +13.5

Eastern Michigan is certainly a 'bet on' team for me this season.  The Eagles are one of the best teams in the MAC because of all that they have returning.  They have five of their top six players back from a team that went 18-15 last year.  They will deliver their fourth consecutive winning season this year and likely compete for a MAC title.

Sophomore center James Thompson IV (14.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg) proved why he signed with an SEC school as a senior in High School.  He and LSU's Ben Simmons, the No. 1 player in the draft, were they only freshmen in the country to average a double-double last year.  He is surrounded by shooters in seniors Willie Mangum IV and Raven Lee, who combined for 113 3-pointers last year.  Binghamton transfer Nick Madray is a solid stretch 4, and Tim Bond is a glue guy who made the MAC's All-Defensive team.

The Eagles already showed what they were capable of with a 90-93 (2 OT) loss at Pittsburgh as 11.5-point underdogs in their opener Friday night.  Now they are catching a big number against an SMU team that I don't believe to be as good as Pitt.

The Mustangs lose three of their best players from last year in Nic Moore (16.1 ppg, 5.2 apg), Jordan Tolbert (11.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Markus Kennedy (9.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg).  Head coach Larry Brown abruptly retired amid contract negotiations in July, and probably due to all the turmoil surrounding the postseason ban last year.  That leaves assistant Tim Jankovich to take over the duties.  SMU is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a home win.  Take Eastern Michigan Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3

I believe the Carolina Panthers are still one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL.  However, they aren't getting treated like it right now from oddsmakers because they are just 3-5 on the season.  That record has them undervalued right now.

Cam Newton missed 1.5 games and Jonathan Stewart also missed a couple games during their 1-5 start.  But then the Panthers had a bye in Week 7 to get healthy.  They have come back from their by with two impressive wins to turn their season around.

They beat the Cardinals 30-20 in Week 8 at home, and then they went on the road and beat the Rams 13-10 last week.  That was a Rams team coming off their bye, so that was a very good win.  Plus, the Rams scored their only TD of the game in the final few seconds of the fourth quarter on fourth down when the game was already decided.  The defense is really starting to play up to its standards now after holding the Cardinals and Rams to an average of 15.0 points per game the past two weeks.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall dating back to last season.  They have won four straight games coming in, but I believe they are being way overvalued due to that winning streak.  They were extremely lucky to beat the Jaguars 19-14 at home last week.

The Chiefs were actually outgained by 208 yards by the Jaguars.  Their offense was held to just 231 total yards, while the defense gave up 449 total yards.  In fact, the Chiefs have been outgained in five of their last seven games overall.  They are ranked 26th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, which isn't the sign of a good team.

I know the Chiefs will get Alex Smith back at quarterback this week, and while he's an upgrade of Nick Foles, it's not that big of a difference.  The Chiefs are expected to be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin, and it's uncertain if Spencer Ware will be back from his concussion.  The Chiefs were already without Jamaal Charles.

I just don't see the Chiefs being able to do enough offensively to keep up with the Panthers in this game.  Having a healthy Newton back and pairing him with a healthy Stewart, this Panthers offense will be at least as explosive as it was last year going forward when it led the NFL in scoring offense.

The Chiefs have been very lucky in the turnover department of late, which has been the key to their 4-game winning streak.  They are +10 in turnovers their past four games, which is a rate that is unsustainable.  The Panthers are -6 in turnover differential after finishing +20 last season.

The Panthers have won the turnover battle the past two games since they returned from their bye as they have only committed one turnover.  That will be a sign of things to come for the Panthers as they get back to playing how they did last year.  Kansas City's only chance in this game is to win the turnover battle because it's clear to me that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.  I'll bank on that not happening this week as the Panthers continue their push to get back in the playoff hunt.

Both teams rely heavily on running the football, and it's clear that the Panthers have a huge edge in this game against the run.  The Panthers rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 77.5 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  Conversely, the Chiefs rank 27th against the run, giving up 124.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 4.8 yards per carry.

Plays on home favorites (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 47-20 (70.1%) ATS since 1983.

Carolina is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who complete 61% or better of their pass attempts over the last two seasons.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  Ron Rivera is 10-1 ATS in home games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of Carolina.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins -1

The Washington Redskins went into their bye week pissed off.  They should have won their final two games heading into the bye, but instead they wound up going 0-1-1 to sit at 4-3-1 on the season.  Look for them to come out after their bye this week hungry for a victory.

I say they should have won their last two games because they blew a late lead against the Lions in a 20-17 road loss, outgaining Detroit by 69 yards.  Then they outgained Cincinnati by 131 yards in a 27-27 tie over in London.

The Redskins actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 40.5 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank 18th in the NFL in yardage differential, actually getting outgained on the season due to a putrid offense that is only averaging 298.8 yards per game.

The Vikings got off to a 5-0 start this season, but then had their bye week.  They have gone 0-3 since the bye with three straight lackluster performances.  They lost 10-21 to the Eagles, 10-20 to the Bears and 16-22 to the Lions.  Their offense has been held to just 12.0 points per game during this skid.

The Redskins have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  They are putting up 410.7 yards per game this season while averaging 299 passing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  The Vikings are only averaging 19.4 points per game on the season and 73 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, putting way too much pressure on Sam Bradford and the passing game.

Plays on home teams (WASHINGTON) - off one or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the NFL from oddsmakers when they clearly aren't in their current state.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are much better than their 2-5 record would indicate.  They blew big leads in three of their five losses, and small leads in the other two.  They just weren't able to finish games up to this point.  Now I think we are getting them at a discount here as 5-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Timberwolves have a huge edge in rest.  They come in on two days' rest, while the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially after a huge 110-108 win at Oklahoma City last night.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank here.

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers just had their dreams crushed with a 10-0 loss to Alabama last week.  This game was tied 0-0 at the end of three quarters with the Tigers right there to pull off the upset.  But they had their hearts ripped out time and time again as Alabama QB Jalen Hurts killed them with his legs in the fourth quarter.

If the Tigers had won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the SEC West by winning out with an outside shot of making the four-team playoff.  But now with three losses on the season, they don't have much to play for outside of bowl positioning the rest of the way.  This team plays for championships, not bowl positioning.

So, I fully expect LSU to come out flat this week against Arkansas.  In fact, they may not even show up at all and get blown out of the building as a result.  There's no way LSU should be favored by a touchdown at Arkansas given their mental state right now, and I don't believe they should even be favored at all.

Arkansas had a chance to regroup with a bye two weeks ago following a brutal stretch that included a blowout loss to Auburn heading into the bye.  But the Razorbacks got healthy and re-focused, and they came back last week and crushed Florida 31-10 despite being 3-point home underdogs.

This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Razorbacks racked up 466 yards of total offense on a very good Florida defense, rushing for 223 and throwing for 246.  Their defense held the Gators to just 241 total yards, outgaining them by 225 yards in for the game.

I was really impressed with Arkansas' ability to stop the run against the Gators.  They gave up just 12 rushing yards on 14 carries.  They had previously been torched on the ground, but they clearly made an effort on their bye to improve in that area, and that's exactly what they did.  That will be key again this week in stopping LSU's rushing attack led by Leonard Fournette.

Amazingly, LSU has only played one true road game all season.  It lost 13-18 at Auburn in that contest.  It also lost its other road game which was at a neutral site against Wisconsin 14-16.  I think this team is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this week because the schedule has been favorable with so many home games up to this point.

Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to top-ranked Alabama.  But that game was closer than the final of 30-49 would indicate.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards.

To compare, Alabama outgained LSU by 198 yards last week and held the Tigers to just 125 total yards.  Arkansas scored 30 points on that Alabama defense and gained 473 yards, but gave the game away by committing five turnovers.  The Razorbacks have a clear advantage on offense in this game and will be able to score on this LSU defense, too.

Arkansas has had LSU's number in recent years.  The Razorbacks won 17-0 at home in 2014 and 31-14 on the road as 6.5-point dogs last year.  They outgained the Tigers by 131 yards in 2014 and by 110 yards in 2015.  The Razorbacks are actually 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Tigers.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in the last 11 meetings.

LSU is 0-6 ATS in Saturday road games over the past two seasons, losing by an average of 5.0 points per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State +1

Ruined by transfer rules allowing graduates to transfer elsewhere and play immediately, Cleveland State lost two starters last year and a third who vacated the year before, leaving head coach Gary Waters in a reclamation project and a drop in the standings to just 9-23 overall.  It was a rare down season for Waters, who is 185-150 at CSU.

But now the Vikings return three starters and will be vastly improved.  They do have to add in six newcomers, but three of them have junior college experience, and four of them are 6-7 or 6-8.  Sophomore G Rob Edwards (12.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and senior F Demonte Flannigan (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) return as the two leading scorers from last year.  Another starter in G Terrell Hales is back, plus four key reserves who played significant minutes return.

Kent State loses three starters from a team that went 19-13 last season.  It also brings back one reserve that played significant minutes last season.  I fully expect the Golden Flashes to take a big step back this season with basically only three players back who contributed last season.

Rob Senderoff is 1-8 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Kent State.  Senderoff is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite as the coach of the Golden Flashes.  This game will be played in Youngstown, Ohio in the Coaches vs Cancer tournament.  Bet Cleveland State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -2.5

The Old Dominion Monarchs have been flying under the radar this season.  They sit at 6-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play, and a win Saturday over Southern Miss would move them into a first-place tie with Western Kentucky in the C-USA's East Division.  So, they have a lot to play for this week.

Old Dominion's three losses this season have all come on the road against the best three teams they have faced in Appalachian State, NC State and Western Kentucky.  But the Monarchs have taken care of business in their other six games against similar or worse competition to Southern Miss.

They have outgained their other six opponents in their six victories, and they outgained five of them by at least 100 yards.  They beat Marshall 38-14, UTEP 31-21 on the road, UMass 36-16 at home, Charlotte 52-17 on the road, UTSA 33-19 at home and Hampton 54-21 at home.  So, all six of their wins have come by double-digits.

And the Monarchs have yet to lose at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while winning by 22.7 points per game on average.  I love the balance of this offense as they average 189 yards per game on the ground and 231 through the air.  And there's no question Old Dominion has one of the best defenses in C-USA, giving up 27.4 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season.

Southern Miss has taken a big step back this season.  After making the C-USA title game last year, the Golden Eagles are just 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They have been overvalued all year and continue to be here as only 2.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with some awful results.  They only by by 16 over Rice as 25.5-point favorites and by 10 over Marshall as 17-point favorites, both at home.  They lost by 23 at UTSA as 17-point favorites, at LSU by 35 as 25-point dogs and by 11 at home to Charlotte as 17-point favorites.  That's right, they have been upset twice as 17-point favorites here recently.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and when you do, it's not even close.  The Monarchs and Golden Eagles have faced the same four teams this year.  Old Dominion is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against them, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game.  Southern Miss is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS against those same four teams, only outscoring them by 0.8 points per game.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring teams by 22.7 points per game in the process.  It's worth noting that Southern Miss starting QB Nick Mullens, who means everything to this team, is questionable to play Saturday due to a head injury.  Backup Parker Adamson is completing just 48.7% of his passes on 39 attempts this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

I love the grit and determination that Vanderbilt has shown this season in Derek Mason's third year on the job.  At 4-5 on the year, they need to win two of their last three games to get bowl eligible.  And if they are going to do it, this is a must-win against Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers don't have any motivation right now as they sit at 2-7 on the season while going 0-11 in their last 11 SEC games since last year.  Oh how far they have fallen after winning back-to-back SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014.

Vanderbilt is a better team than its 4-5 record would suggest.  Four of its five losses have come by a TD or less.  That includes a 7-point loss to Florida as 14-point dogs, a 7-point loss at Kentucky, and a 7-point loss at Auburn as 25-point dogs last week.  Don't forget that this team beat Georgia 17-16 as 14-point road dogs and Western Kentucky 31-30 as 8.5-point road dogs.

Missouri's two wins this season have come at home over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State.  The Tigers have going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four double-digit losses and an upset home loss to Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point favorites.  They lost by 35 at LSU, by 26 at Florida, by 14 at home against Kentucky and by 10 at South Carolina.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and it's clear that Vanderbilt is the superior squad when we do.  The Tigers and Commodores have played five of the same teams this year.  Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS against them, outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.  Missouri is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS against them, getting outscored by 11.4 points per game.

Missouri has made some nice improvements on offense this year, but that has been countered with a defense that is the worst we've seen for the Tigers in a long time.  The Tigers allow 30.4 points and 469 yards per game this season.  The Commodores only give up 21.6 points and 397 yards per game.

Ralph Webb is one of the best running backs in the SEC, and QB Kyle Shurmur is improving as he has completed 39 of his last 62 passes over the past two weeks.  Webb is primed for a big day on the ground against a Missouri defense that is allowing 231 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry on the season, including 311.2 yards per game during its five-game losing streak.

Vanderbilt beat Missouri 10-3 at home last season as 1-point dogs.  The Commodores held the Tigers to just 188 total yards and 10 first downs in the win.  Their defense, which has allowed 23 or fewer points in five straight games, will allow them to win this game here today as well and get one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the past two seasons.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +30

The betting public has made a killing on Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have gone 7-2 ATS, including four straight spread covers. Three of those have come by the smallest margins as they won by 19 over Arkansas as 14.5-point favorites, by 19 over Texas A&M as 18-point favorites and by 10 over LSU as 7-point favorites.

Oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding Alabama because the Crimson Tide have come through for them time and time again. So this has created some artificial line value on Mississippi State this week as there’s no way they should be catching 30 points.

It’s worth noting that Alabama only has three wins by more than 28 points this season. The fact of the matter is that the Crimson Tide have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply aren’t going to be able to live up to going forward.

Alabama is also in a bad spot here. Coming off their biggest obstacle of the season in a 10-0 win at LSU last week, the Crimson Tide are primed for a letdown. They are feeling really good about themselves right now after that win. They aren’t going to be concerned with blowing out Mississippi State because they don’t need style points, they just need wins.

And even if the Crimson Tide brought 100% effort this week off that win over LSU, which is unlikely, I still don’t think they’d beat Mississippi State by more than four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are just 4-5 this season, but four of those losses have come by seven points or fewer. That includes road losses to LSU (20-23) and BYU (21-28). Their biggest loss came by 24 points against Auburn, which is playing as well as almost anyone right now.

I was really impressed with Mississippi State’s 35-28 win over then-No. 4 Texas A&M last week. That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bulldogs outgained the Aggies by 192 yards. They racked up 574 yards of total offense in the win.

Nick Fitzgerald is just they type of dual-threat QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M, while also rushing for 182 yards and two scores. The Bulldogs rushed for 365 yards and 6.3 per carry against the Aggies as a team. The freshman Fitzgerald keeps getting better and better as the season goes along.

I looked back since 1992 and this is the biggest favorite Alabama has been over Mississippi State over that time period. The Crimson Tide haven’t been more than 22.5-point favorites in that span. Only once in the last 12 meetings has Alabama won by more than 28 points against Mississippi State.

I know Alabama beat Mississippi State 31-6 last season, but that game was much closer than the final score showed. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 14 yards in that contest. That was the second straight season in which they outgained the Crimson Tide. They also outgained them by 93 yards in a 20-25 road loss in 2014.

Plays against home favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 250 or more passing yards per game. Mississippi State is 11-0 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons. The Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games when playing against a team with a losing road record.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -1.5

The Texas Longhorns have come up with back-to-back huge wins to get to 5-4 on the season and one win away from becoming bowl eligible.  Now I look for them to take another step forward this week with their sixth victory at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Texas beat Baylor 35-34 at home as 4-point underdogs two weeks ago.  The Bears were coming off their bye week, so that was a tough spot for the Longhorns and they proceeded to hand Baylor its first loss of the season.  Then the Longhorns went on the road and beat Texas Tech 45-37, outgaining the Red Raiders by 176 yards in the process.

I really like what I've seen from the Texas rushing attack the past two weeks.  It rushed for 257 yards on Baylor and 414 on Texas Tech.  D'Onta Foreman is having one of the best seasons among running backs that nobody is talking about.  He has rushed for 1,446 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.

West Virginia is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 7-1 start, but make no mistake about it, the Mountaineers have faced a very easy schedule this season compared to Texas.  They have only played two true road games all year.  They won at Texas Tech off their bye, but lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State.

Yes, the Mountaineers have perhaps the best defense in the Big 12, but that is being overblown a bit because of the schedule.  They have done a good job of stopping the pass, but they haven't faced many teams that can run the football like Texas.  And the Mountaineers did give up 280 rushing yards to BYU earlier this season.  The Longhorns have great balance as they average 247 rushing yards and 258 passing yards per game.

All four of Texas' losses have come on the road this season, and three of those were one-score games.  But they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 14.7 points per game on the season.  The home team has won each of the past two meetings between these teams.

The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  West Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team witha  winning record.  I believe the Mountaineers get exposed this week as this will be their toughest game to date outside of maybe their 17-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 7-24 last season, but their point differential does not match their record.  They were only outscored by 4.4 points per game on average for the entire season.

This was a very young Drake team last year, but that's the case no longer.  The Bulldogs bring back four starters and five reserves who played last year.  That includes leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) and Graham Woodward (10.8 ppg), both junior guards.  They add in JUCO transfer De'Antae McMurray to a talented backcourt.

South Dakota went 14-18 last season in Craig Smith's second season with the team.  But now the Coyotes are basically starting from scratch.  They lose all five starters from last season, who all averaged at least 8.3 points per game.

Smith brought in some transfers from other schools to help make up for the departures, but I don't expect the Coyotes to exactly be hitting on all cylinders in the early going with all of the losses.  They lost their top six players in terms of minutes from last year.  Take Drake Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5

The San Antonio Spurs are going to be highly-motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four after a 4-0 start.  The Spurs have inexplicably lost three straight home games after losing just one all of last season during the regular year.

Greg Popovich will get the most out of his players here tonight, especially considering the Spurs are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be laying it all on the line in this one.

The Detroit Pistons are 4-0 at home this season, but 0-4 on the road.  They haven't even been competitive away from home this season as they are getting outscored by 16.2 points per game on the road.  They really miss starting PG Reggie Jackson in the early going, and I give them little chance of being competitive here.

San Antonio is 10-1 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +5.5

The New York Knicks are showing great value here as road underdogs to the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks are starting to catch on to Jeff Hornacek's system as they have won two of their last three while averaging 112.0 points per game in the process.

The Boston Celtics simply should not be favored against many teams right now with the injuries they are dealing with.  They have been without two starters in Al Horford and Jae Crowder in their last couple games, and the results have not been pretty.

The Celtics have lost three straight.  The last two have been especially alarming.  They lost 107-123 as 7-point home favorites over the Nuggets, and 93-118 as 1.5-point road dogs against the Wizards.  Horford and Crowder are their two best defenders, and they miss them more on that end than anything as they are giving up 123.0 points per game in their last three.

This has been a closely-contested series recently as each of the last five meetings were decided by single-digits.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  Boston is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

20* Boston College/Florida State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Boston College +21

I really question what Florida State's motivation is going to be the rest of the way.  The Seminoles were extremely fortunate to beat NC State last week, and I can't see them being too excited to face Boston College tonight.  That lack of motivation is going to make it tough for the Seminoles to win by more than three touchdowns.

The Seminoles had their dreams of winning the Atlantic crushed two weeks ago with a 34-37 home loss to Clemson.  They came back with a lackluster 24-20 win at NC State last week, failing to cover the spread as 6.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 76 yards by the Wolfpack in that contest.

Boston College went on the road and beat NC State 21-14 two weeks ago for a common opponent.  The Eagles outgained the Wolfpack by 48 yards in that contest, playing a much better game than Florida State did against them.

I think the Eagles come in undervalued due to their 7-52 loss to Louisville last week.  But a lot of teams are getting blown out by Louisville as the Seminoles also lost by 43 to them.  The Eagles have struggled with spread teams this year, but FSU runs more of a pro style and they have had success defending those systems.

We've seen Boston College play Florida State tough for three consecutive seasons.  The Eagles lost 14-0 at home last year and were only outgained by 22 yards.  They were only outgained by 78 yards in a 17-20 loss at FSU as 17-point dogs in 2014.  And they lost by 14 as 23.5-point home dogs in 2013 while getting outgained by 92 yards.  So, they have not lost by more than 14 to the Seminoles in any of the last three meetings.

Boston College is 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  Florida State is 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tallahassee.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers may be 6-1 this season, but they have made for excellent fade material as they have been overvalued time and time around.  I think the championship hangover is real, and they aren't giving max effort every night they take the court.

After visiting the White House Thursday, the players' focus certainly won't be on this game as much as it otherwise would be.  That's a huge distraction, and I don't expect the Cavaliers to be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.

The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven't beaten a team by more than 8 points this season since the opener against New York.  Five of their seven games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That is likely to be the case against here against the Wizards, who haven't lost by more than 10 points since their opener.

The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cavs while only losing by more than 6 points once during that stretch.  They actually won two of their four meetings with the Cavs outright last season.  They have a good shot of pulling off the upset here again tonight.  Take the Wizards Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Marquette Veterans Classic No-Brainer on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Vanderbilt is in a transition phase as Kevin Stallings left for Pittsburgh.  The Commodores made a solid higher in Bryce Drew from Valparaiso, but I believe there will be some growing pains in his first season.  That's because the Commodores lose their two leading scorers from last year in G Wade Baldwin IV (14.1 ppg, 5.2 apg) and C Damian Jones (13.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) to the NBA.

Marquette is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Marquette Friday.

15* Utah/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Utah -6

The Utah Utes (7-2) have everything to play for right now.  The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) don't have the same luxury.  That's why I'm willing to lay the 6 points on the road with the Utes tonight knowing that they are going to bring max effort into Tempe, AZ.

Utah has a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in program history.  If they win out, they would at worst finish in a three-way tie with Colorado and USC.  And they'd have the tiebreaker over both of those teams in the South Division, likely moving on to face Washington in the title game.

This Utes team could arguably be 9-0 right now.  They only lost 23-28 at Cal after a goal line stand by the Bears late. They also showed what they were made of by going toe-to-toe with Washington last time out, losing 24-31 at home as 10-point underdogs.

The Utes have outgained six of their nine opponents this season, and they were only outgained by 10 yards by USC, by 20 yards against Arizona and by 9 yards against Washington.  Those are some impressive numbers as they've been able to win the box score in most of their games, and haven't been outmatched once.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which has been dominated in the box score of late.  After outgaining their first three opponents in Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and UTSA, the Sun Devils have been outgained in all six of their Pac-12 games, and five times by at least 168 yards at that.

With those numbers, the Sun Devils are lucky to be 2-4 in Pac-12 play as they arguably should have lost all six games.  They are only averaging 329.8 yards per game and giving up 543.8 yards per game in Pac-12 play, getting outgained by a whopping 214 yards per game in conference action this season.

Utah is led by surprise returnee running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 683 yards and six touchdowns in three games since ending a self-imposed retirement on Oct. 11. Williams returned after injuries to the Utes' three top rushers, who were attempting to replace NFL draft choice Devontae Booker.

Utah has built its record with strong defense and special teams play, too. The Utes are tied with Memphis for the FBS lead with 23 takeaways, on 15 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. They also lead the FBS in net punting.

Arizona State has had a lot of trouble keeping opponents at bay. The Sun Devils have given up 513.6 yards total offense per game, which ranks 124th out of the 128 FBS programs. They have given up 36.6 points a game, which ranks 115th.

The Utes are 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 13.2 points per game on average.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +10.5

I believe there is a ton of value here with the Cleveland Browns catching double-digits against the Baltimore Ravens. There is some artificial line value here based off of what happened last week, with the Ravens upsetting the Steelers and the Browns getting blown out by the Cowboys.

But Baltimore wasn’t all that impressive in its win over Pittsburgh. The Ravens only scored one offensive touchdown, which was a 95-yard pass to Mike Wallace. They other touchdown came on a blocked punt.  They were held to just 274 yards of total offense in the win as Joe Flacco and company continue to struggle on that side of the ball.

Plus, it was Ben Roethlisberger’s first start back from injury, and he showed a lot of rust.  And that win over the Steelers sets the Ravens up for a big letdown here.  The Steelers are their biggest rivals, and I love fading teams coming off a big rivalry game, especially after a victory.

The Browns obviously did not play well last week against the Cowboys, who won 35-10 for their seventh straight victory. But the Cowboys are making everyone look bad this season, and it was by far the worst performance for the Browns this year.

Playing a division rival in the Ravens, and wanting revenge from a 25-20 loss to them at home in their first meeting this season, the Browns will show up to play Thursday night. They blew a 20-2 lead to the Ravens in that first meeting, giving up 23 unanswered points. They certainly haven’t forgotten and will be looking to even the score.

I just don’t see how the Ravens can be laying double-digits against anyone with their offense. The Ravens are averaging just 19.2 points, 325.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 24.5 points, 372 yards per game and 5.9 per play. They rank 27th in the NFL in total offense and 30th in yards per play.

The Browns have certainly struggled defensively this season, but their offense is actually averaging 5.8 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.7 yards per play. They have been competent on that side of the ball, and having WR Corey Coleman back to full strength now is a big bonus.

The Ravens just have a tendency of playing in close games dating back to last season. This season alone, all eight of their games have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, 22 of their last 24 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer, and they haven't won by more than 8 points in that stretch, making for a 24-0 system backing the Browns pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  I expect that trend to continue in this game as the Ravens don’t win by double-digits here.

Cleveland has played Baltimore very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The road team has won four of the last five meetings outright, including a 33-30 (OT) win by the Browns last season as 6-point underdogs.

The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baltimore. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Browns Thursday.

15* Bulls/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are rested and ready to go tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  They will be hungry following back-to-back losses on the road to the Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Thunder to get ready for the Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls certainly don't have that same luxury.  This is a tired team right now as the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 107-115 in Atlanta last night.  They have lost four of their last five games overall coming in.

The problem with the Bulls is that they do not play defense.  They have given up at least 107 points in four of their last five games, all four of which were losses.  The only exception was a win over the Orlando Magic at home, but the Magic are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 4-15 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 3-17 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last two years.  Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 0 days' rest.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games overall.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites here against the Toronto Raptors.  Since Kevin Durant left, this team was pretty much written off, and they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder in the early going.

The Thunder are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Durant's Warriors, which was the second of a back-to-back after a huge road win over the Clippers the night before.  The Thunder are 4-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued right now after their 4-2 start.  But they have played five of their six games at home, and their only road win came at Washington, which is 1-5 right now.  The Raptors lost 91-96 at home to the Kings last time out and were without key center Jonas Valanciunas.  Valanciunas is doubtful to return tonight.

The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points or more.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 71

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies.  I fully expect this game to go well UNDER this 71-point total in a defensive battle tonight.

This is a huge rivalry game as the MAC has so often come down to which team wins this game.  Toledo is tired of losing to Northern Illinois as it has lost six straight in this series.  But four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less, so they just haven't been able to win close games.

And looking at recent scores in this head-to-head series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 55, 52, 51 and 59 points.  That's an average of 54.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 71.

Toledo is very good on defense as it gives up just 22.8 points per game this season.  Northern Illinois is playing much better on that side of the ball of late, giving up just 20.3 points, 378.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play over its past three games.  The Huskies held Buffalo to 7 points and 338 yards and Bowling Green to 20 points and 314 total yards in its last two games, respectively.  And three games ago, NIU was tied 21-21- with Central Michigan at the end of regulation before double-overtime.

Toledo is 14-2 UNDER in its last 16 road games after rushing for 275 or more yards in its previous game.  The Rockets are 8-1 UNDER in November games over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 November games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 110-106 road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point underdogs last night.  I fully expect them fall flat on their faces tonight off such a big win.

That now makes this a very tough spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Bulls come in on one days' rest after a blowout 112-80 win over the Orlando Magic.  It was their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Magic to just 38.8% shooting.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers appear to be the most improved team in the NBA in the early going.  I think they are still being undervalued here by oddsmakers as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.

The Lakers look like a poor man's Warriors this season with the hiring of Luke Walton.  They are spreading the floor and letting their young playmakers go to work.  The Lakers have opened 4-3 SU but 6-1 ATS.  All three of their losses came on the road.

But the Lakers are 3-0 at home this season.  They beat the Rockets 120-114 as 6-point dogs, the Warriors 117-97 as 11.5-point dogs, and the Suns 119-108 as 4-point favorites.  I was really impressed with the way they came back and beat the Suns in a clear letdown spot following that 20-point win over the Warriors.

The Dallas Mavericks are a mess right now.  They are just 1-5 on the season with their only victory coming at home in overtime against the Bucks, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and were tired.  Not helping matters is that the Mavs are without two key players in Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams right now.

I expect the Lakers to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight.  They are scoring 110.3 points per game on the season, while the Mavs are being held to 95.5 points per game on 41.1% shooting.  Los Angeles is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8

The Phoenix Suns are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  I know they're just 2-5, but one loss came on the road to the Thunder in overtime, and another was a 6-point loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point home underdogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-3 this season and overvalued off back-to-back victories over the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who both have struggled early.  The Blazers have a big game against the Clippers on deck tomorrow night, and they could be looking ahead to that one as the first meeting between them and the Clippers was very chippy back on October 27th.

Both the Suns and Blazers are guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for the Suns.  That has proven to be the case in recent meetings.  The Suns are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Blazers since last season.  They won 118-115 (OT) as 3-point home dogs in their first meeting this year.  I look for them to go on the road this time around and keep this one close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Plays on road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Suns are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

0* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be motivated for a victory tonight after a 1-4 start to the season.  But this team is way better than its record would indicate as they have been the kings of blowing big first half leads in three of their four losses.

Now the Timberwolves get to go up against the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the wrost teams in the NBA.  The Nets are 2-4 on the season and are getting way too much respect here from oddsmakers due to going 5-1 ATS.  But this is their smallest underdog role thus far, which shows just how much respect they're getting.

The Timberwolves made easy work of the Nets in their two meetings last season.  They won 100-85 as 1.5-point road favorites, and 132-118 as 9.5-point home favorites.  The Nets are without starting PG Jeremy Lin, which is a big blow to a roster that already lacks talent.

Plays against home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Minnesota is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan PK

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are one win away from becoming bowl eligible at 5-4 on the season.  That's a huge deal for a team that has won two or fewer games in four consecutive seasons, and one that hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987.

After missing a golden opportunity last time out on October 29th in a 15-28 home loss to Miami Ohio, I look for the Eagles to take advantage tonight.  Plus, that's a very good Miami team that is proving to be one of the best in the MAC.  But now the Eagles get to face one of the worst teams in the conference in Ball State.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in MAC play this season with their only victory coming against Buffalo, which is the worst team in the conference.  Ball State was beating by 10 at home by Akron and by 32 at home by Western Michigan in its last two games.

After playing a huge game against unbeaten Western Michigan last Tuesday, I don't expect the Cardinals to be up for Eastern Michigan this week.  And EMU has an advantage in rest and preparation because it last played on Saturday, October 29th.  The Eagles will be putting all their eggs in one basket here to try and get bowl eligible.

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread against the two best teams in the MAC, proving that they can play with them.  They lost 20-35 at home to Toledo as 20.5-point dogs and 31-45 on the road at Western Michigan as 26-point dogs.  And WMU is their only common opponent with Ball State, which lost to the Broncos by 32 at home last week.

Eastern Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Ball State and yet has still put up better numbers.  The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  Ball State is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense.

Ball State relies heavily on the run, averaging 235 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But EMU has been stout against the run, giving up 152 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Cardinals give up 296 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.  The Eagles rely on the pass, averaging 282 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt through the air.  So this is a great matchup for them on both sides of the ball.

Ball State is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 15.6 points per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Bills/Seahawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43

The Seattle Seahawks have been talking about getting their offense going leading up to this game.  At home, I fully expect them to get back on track on that side of the ball.  They are averaging 25.0 points per game at home this season.

Now the Seahawks get to go up against a Bills team that has allowed an average of 34.5 points and 405.5 yards per game in back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Patriots.  And the Bills will be without their best defensive lineman in Marcell Dareus, while sack leader Lorenzo Alexander will be hampered by a hamstring injury.

The Seahawks have their own concerns on defense this week.  They will be without DE Michael Bennett, who is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee injury.  And S Kam Chancellor is out with a groin injury.  This simply isn't the same defense for the Seahawks that we've been accustomed to.  They have allowed 393.3 yards per game over their past three contests.

The Bills finally look to be healthy on offense this week.  RB LeSean McCoy returns after missing most of the past two games with a hamstring injury.  WR's Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods are probable, and the team signed Percy Harvin this week to add a playmaker.  He'll be going up against his former team and is a big play waiting to happen.

Buffalo is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the league.  It has scored at least 25 points in six of its past seven games overall.  It is averaging 29.3 points per game over its past seven contests.  I expect both offenses to put up big numbers tonight and for the Bills to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.

Buffalo is 24-7 OVER in its last 31 vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 9-2 OVER off a loss over the past two seasons.  Seattle is 9-1 OVER against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the past three seasons.  The OVER is 8-0  in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The schedule makers have certainly done them no favors here in the early going, and I think they run out of gas tonight.

Gordon Hayward made his season debut last night for the Jazz in the 114-109 win at New York.  They didn't hold him back at all as he played a whopping 35 minutes.  He will surely feel the effects tonight.  Rodney Hood played 38 minutes, George Hill played 35 and Rudy Gobert played 33 last night as well.

The Philadelphia 76ers are hungry for their first win of the season.  They are 0-5, but they have come oh-so-close in three home games.  They only lost 97-103 (OT) to the Thunder as 9-point dogs, 101-103 to the Magic as 5-point dogs, and 101-102 to the Cavaliers as 12-point dogs.  They should easily stay within this 7.5-point spread tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.

The 76ers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest division foes.  Philadelphia is 37-17-2 ATS in its last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are extremely hungry for their first win of the season today.  But due to their 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS start, the Mavs are undervalued right now.  We are getting a discount here with them as only 2.5-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.

It's the perfect storm really because the Bucks are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But those three wins came against the Pelicans on the road, and the Pacers and Kings at home.

And now the Bucks are in one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  I don't believe they'll have enough gas left in the tank to match the Mavericks tonight, especially with the Mavs playing desperate basketball to get that first win.

The Bucks are 48-87 ATS in their last 135 games following 3 or more consecutive wins.  Milwaukee is 5-16 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavs have gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks.  They have won their last three home meetings by 10, 23 and 13 points.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Tennessee Titans are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  After going 5-27 over the past two seasons, the Titans are off to a 4-4 start this year.  They have been the most impressive team in the AFC South in my opinion.  The numbers prove it too.

All four of Tennessee's losses have come by single-digits, so they've been in every game they have played.  The Titans actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Cowboys, Falcons and Redskins have been better.

I've been on the Chargers quite a bit lately, but I think it's time to fade them this week.  They had covered three straight before losing by 8 as 4-point road dogs to the Broncos last week.  That line was bet from 6.5 down to 4, just as the previous week the line was bet from 6.5 down to 4.5 against the Falcons.

So, there's been a lot of love for the Chargers the past few weeks, and there continues to be this week.  They are 4.5-point favorites here, which means it is the largest favorites they have been all season.  They have only been favored in two other games.  They covered as 3-point home favorites against the Jaguars, but lost outright to the Saints as 4-point home favorites.

I like the fact that the Titans have a mini-bye here after crushing the Jaguars 36-22 on Thursday at home.  And the Chargers have had the worst luck in the injury department this season.  They will be without two key defenders in LB Denzel Perryman and LB Jerry Attaochu.  Offensively, they will be without TE Hunter Henry, and both starting WR's in Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are banged up.

The Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.  San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in its previous game.  While I expect Tennessee to win this game outright, there's a good chance it's decided by a field goal either way, so getting 4.5 points is a nice value.  Seven of San Diego's eight games have been one-score games.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants -2

Of the six teams coming off byes this week, the Giants are my favorite bet of them all.  They have turned their season around after beating the Ravens and Rams in their last two games coming into the bye.

The Giants are now 4-3 and have actually been unlucky in the turnover department, which makes me believe they are better than their record.  They are actually -7 in turnover differential this season.

Statistically the Giants have been very good.  They rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential, averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.1 per play on defense behind one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are just 20th in yards per play differential.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 per play on defense.  So, the Giants have been the better team from a yards per play perspective on both offense and defense.

The Eagles are 1-3 on the road this season with their only win coming against the Chicago Bears.  They are getting outgained by 81 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the road.  The Giants are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play at home this season.

Philadelphia is in a very tough spot here.  It is coming off an overtime loss at Dallas in which it blew a double-digit lead.  So the situation really favors the Giants with them coming off a bye, while the Eagles are coming off an OT game.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Browns +7

It's time to sell high on the Dallas Cowboys.  They were already a public team already, but after starting 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS without a spread loss yet, they are overwhelmingly getting public support now.  So much so that they are 7-point road favorites here against the Cleveland Browns.

At 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS on the season, it's time to buy low on the Browns.  This team keeps coming to play every week, but they just don't have a win to show for it.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents this season.

Josh McCown returned to the lineup last week against the Jets in a 28-31 home loss.  Now in his second start back from injury, he should be even better.  He already has a great weapon in Terrelle Pryor at receiver, and now he gets receiver Corey Coleman back from injury.  Coleman had 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the first two games of the season before missing the last five with a hand injury.

Don't forget that the Browns traded for Jamie Collins, so their defense gets an upgrade this week.  And the Cowboys lost two key players to injury in their secondary last week against the Eagles.  Cornerback Morris Claiborne is out with a groin injury, while safety Barry Church is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with an arm injury.  McCown should find plenty of holes in this makeshift Cowboys secondary that is allowing 67.8% completions this season.

Home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 126-97 ATS in their last 223 tries.  The Cowboys are coming off a huge OT win against the Eagles, and they have a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys.  I expect them to just go through the motions this week and for the Browns to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset.

Jason Garrett is 1-9 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  The Cowboys are losing these games by an average of 2.9 points per game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* Alabama/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on LSU +8

The LSU Tigers clearly have new life under interim coach Ed Orgeron.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards, beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards, and beat Ole Miss 38-21 and outgained them by 191 yards.

Now the Tigers are coming off their bye week and have their 'game of the year' here against Alabama.  If they win this game, they can still win the SEC West and possibly make the four-team playoff if they win out.  After all, their two losses came by a combined 7 points on the road to Wisconsin and Auburn, so this is very close to being an 8-0 team.

According to the NFL scouts, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State are the three most talented teams in the country.  The Tigers didn't live up to that talent under Miles, but they certainly are under Orgeron.  They offense has been wide open the past three weeks, which has been the biggest difference.  The Tigers are averaging 41.7 points and 536.0 yards per game over this stretch.

LSU will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder after losing four in a row to Alabama.  But it's worth pointing out that Alabama is only 3-3 in its last six trips to Death Valley.  The three wins came by 6, 4 and 7 points.  And they needed late touchdowns to escape with victory in two of those.  So, the Crimson Tide haven't won by more than a TD in any of their last six trips to Baton Rouge.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, plus LSU's home-field advantage in a night game may be worth more than anyone in the country.  Defensively, they are very similar.  Alabama is holding opponents to 177 yards below their season averages, while LSU is holding foes to 174 yards below.

These teams have one mutual opponent in Ole Miss.  Alabama won by just five at Ole Miss with a 35-yard edge in total yards, while LSU won by 17 at home with a 190-yard edge.  The Crimson Tide do have a slight edge on offense, but as stated before LSU has been much better on this side of the ball since Orgeron took over.  They are finding creative ways to get Leonard Fournette the ball in space, which has been a big key.

LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 19.0 points per game in this spot.  Plays on a home team (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night.  They are 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road.  One of those road losses came at Chicago on October 29th.  So, the Pacers will be out for revenge on the Bulls in this one.

And the Bulls are in a tough spot as it is.  While the Pacers had yesterday off to prepare for revenge on the Bulls, Chicago played New York yesterday.  So, the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.  This is a fatigued team right now that won't be able to keep up with Indiana's aggressiveness.

The Pacers are playing an even more attacking style this season, which will exploit the Bulls' fatigue.  They are putting up 109.4 points per game this season while shooting 39.3% from 3-point range.  And once Jeff Teague gets acclimated to his new team and offense soon, it's going to be even more explosive.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six of the past seven meetings.  Indiana is 32-12 SU at home against Chicago in its last 44 meetings.  The Pacers are 24-10 ATS after having lost three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +4

Arkansas was clearly gassed from playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in a 3-week span.  That's why the bye last week came at the perfect time, and I believe the Razorbacks return home hungry for a victory here against the Florida Gators.

They will be extra motivated from their 56-3 loss at Auburn prior to the bye.  It was just a bad spot for them because Auburn was off a bye, while the Razorbacks were gassed.  And that loss is fresh in the mind of the betting public, which is why the Razorbacks are dogs here when they shouldn't be.  It has provided us some very nice line value in that respect.

Florida doesn't deserve to be playing points here.  It is overvalued due to its 6-1 start and No. 11 ranking the college football playoff.  But the Gators have played an extremely soft schedule this season, and just like last year, I look for them to get exposed down the stretch.

The Gators lost their final three games last year once the schedule got tougher and were blown out in all three games by FSU, Alabama and Michigan.  They still have road games remaining against Arkansas, FSU and LSU, so this season is likely to follow a similar script.

Arkansas will be the best team that Florida has faced, and Arkansas has played played at least four teams that are better than Florida.  The Gators have played only two true road games this season.  They only won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as 14-point favorites, and they lost 28-38 at Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs, which looks like a worse loss now than it did then.

The Gators have a very good defense, but their numbers are skewed because of their soft schedule.  They haven't faced an offense this season that ranks better than 50th (Tennessee) in efficiency.  And the Vols hung 38 points on them.  Arkansas' offense is legit and will be the best that Florida has gone up against this season.  And QB Austin Allen is healthy now with the bye after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn, which contributed to the blowout loss.

Arkansas is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Alabama, which is the best team in the country.  And the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide tougher than the 30-49 final would show.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which proved to be the difference.

Luke Del Rio may be back for Florida, but its offense is still awful.  The Gators only managed 231 total yards against Georgia last week in a 24-10 victory.  They are only averaging 399 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season, and keep in mind how soft their schedule has been when factoring in those numbers.

Arkansas is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse +27

This is a great spot to back the Syracuse Orange for a couple of key reasons.  The first is that the Orange are off their bye week, and it came at a great time because they were a little beat up.  They have extra time to prepare for Clemson, so their focus has been on the game plan all week.  Plus, they're hyped to play a Top 5 team.

"We really needed the bye," coach Dino Babers said. "You know, a lot of times when you have a bye, you start off the next game a little bit slower, but we really needed the time to heal. The Virginia Tech, the Boston College, the Connecticut, those were physical games, they really were, and we're banged up. We need our guys to get some rest. We need to go out and do some coaching. Our players need to work on their studies a little bit, and then we need to come back together and get ready for the last third of the season."

The second key reason to back Syracuse is that this is a huge hangover spot for Clemson.  The Tigers are coming off a 37-34 road win at Florida State.  They needed a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:06 left to win that contest after coming back from behind in the closing minutes.

I don't expect the Tigers to be fully focused on Syracuse this week.  The Tigers are just worried about winning, not covering big numbers, because if they win out they are in the four-team playoff.  They don't need style points like some of these one-loss teams on the outside looking in.

The Orange have been on the improve under Babers.  They have outgained four of their last six opponents.  Their last two games really stand out.  The Orange beat Virginia Tech 31-17 as 23-point home dogs, outgaining the Hokies by 93 yards.

Then they went on the road and beat Boston College 28-20 as 3.5-point dogs, outgaining the Eagles by 246 yards in the process.  That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And it was an impressive effort as they were in a letdown spot off the Virginia Tech win, plus Boston College was coming off a bye week.

I really like this Syracuse offense, and it will be able to put some point up on Clemson.  Quarterback Eric Dungey is the real deal.  He's on pace to challenge or break a number of Syracuse records.  He is seventh nationally in passing yards per game (328.9) and has six 300-yard passing games.  Dungey has also rushed for 289 yards and six scores.

The bottom line is that Clemson just isn't as good as last year.  Five of its eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including a 24-17 (OT) win over NC State in their last home game.  Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including that outright win against VA Tech.

Syracuse has given Clemson trouble the past couple seasons.  The Orange only lost 27-37 as 30.5-point home underdogs last season.  They also only lost 6-16 as 16.5-point road dogs in 2014.  And this Syracuse team is better than those two versions.

Plays on road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 78-36 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Clemson is 1-12 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons.  It is only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.  Once again, they are being overvalued this late in the year.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +31

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now.  They are the No. 3 in the country after their 8-0 start, but their schedule has been ridiculously easy to this point.  And now the expectations are through the roof, and I don't think they can live up to them here as 31-point favorites over Maryland.

I faded Michigan last week with success as I took Michigan State +24.5, and the Spartans were always covering in a 23-32 home loss.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in their last two games now as they also didn't cover as 40-point favorites in a 33-point win over Illinois the week prior.

Now we're seeing the Wolverines being asked to lay 31 points to Maryland.  And Maryland just beat Michigan State 28-17 a couple weeks ago.  I would argue that Maryland will be one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season, which just shows how easy the Wolverines' schedule has been.

Maryland is off to a 5-3 start this season.  And the Terrapins are actually 5-1 in games in which senior QB Perry Hills has started and finished, averaging 472 yards of offense in those games.  He got hurt in a loss to Penn State, and he didn't play the following week in a loss to Minnesota.

Hills has thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on the season.  He has also rushed for 136 yards and four scores.  The Terrapins have two running backs who are just big plays waiting to happen.  Sophomore Ty Johnson has rushed for 624 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 10.4 per carry, while true freshman Lorenzo Harrison has rushed for 574 yards and five scores at 7.3 per carry.

There is a really nice coaching angle that gives the Terrapins the advantage.  DJ Durkin was Michigan's defensive coordinator last season.  So he knows Michigan's offensive schemes, and he will use that to his advantage here.  That angle alone is going to make this a closer game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Michigan is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Terrapins are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Maryland Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3

This is the perfect storm here.  Oklahoma State is coming off a massive 37-20 win over West Virginia last week as 5-point home dogs, exceeding expectations.  Kansas State is coming off a 31-26 win at Iowa State as 6-point favorites, failing to cover the falling below expectations.  That has kept this line lower than it should be.

But the 37-20 win over West Virginia was very misleading for the Cowboys.  They were actually outgained by 63 yards by the Mountaineers and held to 358 yards of total offense.  The difference was that Oklahoma State scored 17 points off of three WVU turnovers.  They needed only 21 yards to score those 17 points, so they were set up with short fields three times.

At the same time, Kansas State's 31-26 win at Iowa State was misleading as well.  The Wildcats led that game 31-10 in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  The Cyclones outscored them 16-0 in the fourth, including two fourth-down touchdowns, and a safety.  And that's the same ISU team that has gone 5-1 ATS in conference play while taking several teams down to the wire, including Oklahoma State on the road, and Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The head-to-head history in this series really tells the story for me.  Home-field advantage has been huge.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the past three seasons.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.v

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +7

The Wisconsin Badgers have to be running out of gas.  They have played three teams in the past month who are currently ranked in the Top 10 in Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska.  And they also played one of their biggest rivals in Iowa.  I think we could see the emotional and physical effects of those games hamper them this week, especially after needing OT to beat Nebraska last week.

Northwestern comes in playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite being dogs in three of those.  It won 38-31 as 11-point dogs at Iowa, 54-40 as 6-point dogs at Michigan State, and 24-14 as 3-point home favorites over Indiana.

But perhaps Northwestern's most impressive performance of the season actually came in a loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-24 at Ohio State as 26-point dogs.  They played the Buckeyes toe-to-toe and you really couldn't tell who the better team was if you watched that game.  The Wildcats put up over 400 yards of offense on Ohio State and were only outgained by 25 yards.

I think that effort will give them the belief that they can win the Big Ten East, instead of suffering a hangover.  And if they're going to win the division, they need to beat Wisconsin here.  They are only one game back of Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, and would hold the tiebreaker with Wisconsin with a win.

Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side over the past two seasons.  It won 20-14 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2014, and 13-7 as 12-point road dogs in 2015.  The Wildcats clearly have the Badgers' number in holding them to a combined 21 points the past two years.  And this Wisconsin offense is terrible once again this season, which is why it cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.  Not to mention the Badgers have several key injuries on defense.

Pat Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Northwestern.  The Wildcats are beating teams by 9.2 points per game in this situation, which has never lost.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Badgers.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -6.5

This game will be played at a neutral site at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars.  It is the first game off the board Saturday with the kick set for 11:30 AM EST.  I fully expect a Notre Dame blowout over Navy to get things started.

Notre Dame still needs three more wents to get to a bowl game.  It still has to play at USC in the season finale, which is probably going to be a loss.  So that means these next three games are essentially must-wins against Navy, Army and VA Tech.

Last week was also a must-win, and Notre Dame beat Miami 30-27 at home.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Fighting Irish outgained the Hurricanes by 105 total yards.  The Hurricanes scored 14 points off of two Notre Dame fumbles that made that game closer than it really was.  This was a 20-0 game in the second quarter.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame had a bye before Miami.  It was well-placed on purpose because Notre Dame has Navy and Army in consecutive weeks in its next two games.  You can bet that the Fighting Irish used at least part of the bye week to prepare for the triple-option.  That's a key here that is getting overlooked.

Notre Dame clearly isn't as bad as its 3-5 record would indicate.  All five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less, so they've had a chance to win every game they've played in.  And the defense has been much better since changing coordinators.

In their last three games, the Fighting Irish have only given up an average of 18.0 points per game, 266.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  And the points are skewed.  They gave up a punt block TD against NC State, an INT return TD against Stanford, and two fumbles setting up two Miami TDs.  So they've given up four TDs over the past three weeks that weren't the defense's fault.

Navy is overrated right now due to home wins over Houston and Memphis recently.  But Houston went on to lose by 22 to SMU, while Memphis went on to lose by 29 to Tulsa.  So, both of those wins don't look nearly as good as they did when they happened.

Last week, Navy trailed by as much as 31 at South Florida.  But the Bulls packed it in and let Navy score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  This wound up being a 7-point win by USF, but it was a much bigger blowout than that.

I believe Notre Dame is the best team that Navy will have faced this season.  And the Fighting Irish clearly have a huge edge in talent in this game.  The Game of the Year line by Golden Nugget before the season was Notre Dame favored by 14, so we're getting over a touchdown of value here based on preseason expectations.

Notre Dame has owned Navy of late, winning five straight meetings with four of those coming by double-digits.  And the Fighting Irish have been favored by at least 13.5 in all five meetings over the past five seasons.  So this 6.5-point spread is a discount this week with supremely talented Notre Dame laying less than a touchdown.

Navy is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season.  Its only win came at Tulane by 7 as 7-point favorites.  It lost to Air Force by 14 and to USF by 7, though as stated before that was a misleading final.  Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 8 or more yards per attempt.

The Midshipmen are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games overall.  Brian Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play as the coach of Notre Dame.  His teams are winning by 20.2 points per game on average in this spot having never lost.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5

I've been on the Phoenix Suns in every game this season and I'm going to continue to back them as long as they are undervalued.  There's no way the Suns should be underdogs here against the 0-5 New Orleans Pelicans.

The SUns have played a brutal early schedule, and they are undervalued because they are 1-4.  But they only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  They beat Portland 118-115 (OT) last time out as 2.5-point dogs to give them some confidence.  And their other two losses came to the Clippers (on a back-to-back) and Kings (opener).

The Pelicans just can't catch a break in the injury department.  They are missing two starters in Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, which is the biggest reason they are 0-5.  They have lost to the Nuggets, Warriors and Bucks at home, as well as the Spurs and Grizzlies on the road.  They simply have to rely too much on Anthony Davis right now because they are playing so many scrubs and inexperienced players due to the injuries.

The Suns crushed the Pelicans in their finale two meetings last season, winning 104-88 at home and 121-100 on the road.  New Orleans is 8-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Plays against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* Knicks/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks.  I expect the defensive intensity in this game to be very high with both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah making their much-anticipated returns to Chicago.

The Bulls wanted to play faster under Fred Hoiberg, but that just hasn't been the case.  They rank 19th in pace this season at 98.7 possessions per game.  But they have actually been very good on defense this year as they are 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's really impressive when you consider the Bulls have faced the Celtics (twice) and Pacers, along with the up-tempo Nets.  They have played some of the best offenses in the NBA to this point.  And we've seen 207 or fewer combined points scored in three of Chicago's four games.

The Knicks have scored 99 or fewer points in three of their four games this season.  They are lost offensive right now as they are trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's new system.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 96.1 points per 100 possessions.

Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Bulls and Knicks have combined for 200 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 211.5-point total set.  New York is 9-0 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Temple/UConn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Temple -10

The Temple Owls are in position to win the AAC East division.  They are 4-1 in the conference, tied with South Florida atop the standings.  They hold the tiebreaker, too, so they essentially control their own destiny.  With that goal in mind, they'll be laying it all on the line tonight against UConn.

The Owls simply get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 ATS this season after killing it last season against the spread as well.  They have covered eight straight games since a fluke opening loss to Army.  And they are getting better and better as the season has gone one.

When you look at the numbers, Temple should be better than 6-3 straight up.  It has actually outgained eight of its nine opponents this season with the lone exception coming in a 27-34 road loss at Penn State.  The last four games have been super-impressive.

Temple lost 27-34 at Memphis despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and clearly should have won.  The Owls outgained UCF by 68 yards in a 26-25 road win the following week.  Then they came home and crushed USF 46-30 while outgaining them by 179 yards.  And they outgained Cincinnati by 288 yards in a 34-13 home win last week.

UConn is in a world of hurt right now.  It has lost three straight games with a 27-42 road loss at USF, a 16-24 home loss to UCF, and a 3-41 road loss at East Carolina last week.  Coach Bob Diaco fired his offensive coordinator after that performance against ECU.  He promoted his wide receivers coach, who has never been an offensive coordinator anywhere else before.

The fact of the matter is that a new WR coach isn't going to save this offense.  The Huskies are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  QB Bryant Shirreffs has been terrible this season, and he's been the biggest problem.

Now the Huskies go up against a Temple defense that has been dominant once again.  The Owls are only giving up 22.7 points, 306 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 5.2 points and 80 yards per game less than their season averages.

And this Temple offense has really taken off this year.  It is averaging 33.8 points, 405 yards per game and 5.9 per play against opponents that allow 28.5 points and 5.3 per play.  The Owls put up 531 yards against Memphis, 518 against South Florida and 474 against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  They have rushed for 275 and 319 yards in their past two games, respectively.

Temple has blown UConn out of the building the past two seasons.  It won 27-3 last year as 13.5-point home favorites.  It also won 36-10 as 6-point road favorites in 2014.  More of the same can be expected this season, especially with what's at stake for the Owls.

UConn is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the past two seasons.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Friday.

15* Falcons/Bucs AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

The Falcons are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and the numbers fully support it. They are 5-3 this season with their three losses coming by a combined 12 points. They are that close to being 8-0, and they finally got a break in a close game last week with a great win over the Packers.

The Falcons rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 46.0 yards per game. They are 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play. Those numbers alone show that the Falcons are among the league’s elite.

The Buccaneers may be 3-4, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 38.3 yards per game. They rank 31st in yards per play differential, getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play.

Of course, the Bucs’ poor stats are largely due to their effort against the Raiders last week. There’s no way that game should have even gone to overtime. The Raiders committed 23 penalties and outgained the Bucs by a whopping 356 yards in that contest.

In fact, the Bucs have been outgained in five of their seven games this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have actually outgained six of their eight opponents this season. It’s clear to me by the numbers that the Falcons are contenders, and the Bucs are pretenders.

The Bucs are down several key weapons this week. They are without their top three running backs in Doug Martin, Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers. They are also without their No. 2 receiver in Vincent Jackson and top tight end Austin Saferian-Jenkins. Jameis Winston simply has too much on his plate right now.

The Bucs gave up a ridiculous 626 total yards to the Raiders last week, and now they’re up against the league’s top offense in the Falcons. Indeed, Atlanta ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense (425.2 yards/game), 1st in scoring offense (32.8 points/game) and 1st in yards per play (6.8 yards/play). The Bucs’ defense was on the field for 94 snaps in the OT loss to the Raiders, so they will be fatigued on this short week.

Matt Ryan and company want revenge on the Bucs from losing 24-31 in the opener at home. They also know that they’ve lost three straight in this series, and it’s time to end it. With the state the Bucs are in right now, it’s clear that is a likely possibility Thursday night.

The Falcons have played their best football on the road, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. The Bucs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 10.3 points per game. Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in it s last 62 home games overall, and 5-14 ATS in home games over the past three seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves really should be 3-0 right now.  Instead they are 1-2 and undervalued.  They blew a 17-point lead at Memphis and lost 98-102.  They also blew an 18-point lead at Sacramento and lost 103-106.

But the Timberwolves showed a lot of fight in their home opener on Tuesday against Memphis.  They beat the Grizzlies 116-80 after keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Look for more of the same here at home against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are also 1-2, and while I really like this team and have backed them with success against the spread, I like the Timberwolves more.  The Nuggets' only win came on the road at New Orleans, which is 0-5 on the season.  They lost at home to Portland and on the road to Toronto.

While the Timberwolves are without Ricky Rubio, I believe they are better with Kris Dunn, who had 10 points, six assists and five steals in 29 minutes in the win over Memphis.  Denver is expected to be without Will Barton, who is their leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Gary Harris is also expected to miss this game with a groin injury.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 209.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight.  Minnesota is without starting PG Ricky Rubio, while Denver is without leading scorer Will Barton and starting SG Gary Harris.

Tom Thibodeau has changed the culture in Minnesota.  He has them slowing it down and playing defense.  The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo here playing at home.  It's also worth noting that Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 8th in the early going.

Recent head-to-head history between these teams even before Thibodeau was in Minnesota shows that there's value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 152, 212, 200, 173 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 184.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo +20

Just bet the road team in Ohio games.  It has been that simple.  Indeed, the road team is 9-0 ATS in Ohio games this season.  The Bobcats have gone 5-0 ATS on the road, but 0-4 ATS at home.  And they are certainly laying too many points at home here against Buffalo tonight as 20-point favorites.

Ohio lost at home 54-56 as 17-point favorites to Texas State in the opener, and Texas State is terrible.  Ohio only beat Gardner Webb 37-21 at home as 30-point favorites.  The Bobcats only beat Bowling Green 30-24 as 11.5-point home favorites.  They also lost to Eastern Michigan 20-27 as 8-point home favorites.  They clearly can't be trusted at home.

I also don't like this spot for the Bobcats.  They are coming off a huge upset 31-26 win at Toledo as 15-point dogs last week.  Now they have a 1.5-game lead over Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings because they own the tiebreaker with the Redhawks.  So, they can lose this game and STILL be in first place in the division.  They won't be that motivated at all to face Buffalo tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls come in with a lot of confidence off their strongest performance of the season.  They beat Akron 41-20 at home last week as 19.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Zips by 212 total yards in what was every bit the dominant effort that the final score showed.  They racked up a season-high 518 total yards, including 378 rushing and 9.0 per carry in the win.

Buffalo beat Ohio 41-17 as 3-point home dogs last season.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Buffalo Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns +3.5

The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 this season and undervalued as a result.  But they have played a brutal schedule to open the season, and they're really going to be hungry for their first win at home tonight.

The Suns have lost to the Kings, Thunder, Warriors and Clippers.  They only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City in overtime as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs to really show what they are capable of.

The Portland Trail Blazers are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they just lost 104-127 to the Warriors last night, so they won't be nearly as excited to play the Suns here.  This is clearly a hangover spot for the Blazers.

Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more over the past two seasons.  Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more three straight games are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 99-105 loss at Chicago on October 27th.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back that night, so it wasn't a great spot for them.

Now the Celtics have had three days off in between games to prepare for the Bulls, who have only had one day off.  That's a really nice rest advantage here, so the Celtics should be laying it all on the line tonight.

The Bulls come in overvalued due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  But two of their wins have come at home, and the other was a road win over the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS off a road win over the past two seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Indians Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -115

The Chicago Cubs have all the momentum now after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7.  I look for them to become the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back from 3-1 to win the World Series and capitalize on that momentum.

It's amazing to think that the Cubs actually are set up better to play on the road in this series.  That's because they get to use a DH, and there aren't many better DH's than Kyle Schwarber.  I love Joe Maddon's move to put him in the 2-hole to get him as many at-bats as possible, while also giving him some protection with the red-hot Kris Bryant behind him.

Kyle Hendricks will be on normal 4 days' rest here, and I would argue that he's the better starter in this matchup with his 2.03 ERA compared to Kluber's 3.01 ERA.  Josh Tomlin struggled on short rest last night, and Kluber will be making his 2nd consecutive start on short rest, this time getting only 3 days' rest.  I think the workload is going to catch up to Kluber tonight, especially with the way the Cubs have been swinging the bats these past two games.

The Cubs are 45-15 in their last 61 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 16-6 in Hendricks' last 22 starts, including a perfect 5-0 in his last five road starts.  The Cubs have won four of their last five road games in these playoffs.  Bet the Cubs in Game 7 Wednesday.

15* Toledo/Akron MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -10

The Toledo Rockets are 6-2 this season and clearly a top contender to win the MAC.  But if they want to win the conference, they're going to have to win out because Western Michigan likely isn't going to lose a game until these teams meet in the final week of the season.

The Rockets could easily be 8-0 as well.  Their two losses have come by 2 points at BYU and by 5 points against Ohio.  They lost to Ohio last week and will certainly be hungry to bounce back from that defeat here, adding to their motivation.

What impresses me the most about the Rockets is the fact that they have outgained all eight opponents this season, including five by more than 100 yards.  Their offense is putting up 39.4 points and 544 yards per game, while their defense is giving up 23.5 points and 377 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per game and outgaining them by 167 yards per game.

Akron is very fortunate to be 5-4 this season.  The Zips have only outgained three of their nine opponents, and one of those was Virginia Military in the opener.  They outgained Ball State by 86 yards and Miami Ohio by 39 yards for the other two.

Akron is only gaining 401 yards per game on the season and giving up a whopping 483 yards per game, getting outgained by 82 yards per game on the season.  They cannot run the ball as they only average 135 yards per game on the ground, so they are losing the time of possession battle nearly 35 minutes to 25 minutes on average.

Two of Akron's last three games really stand out and make be believe that Toledo should have no problem covering this 10-point spread.  Akron lost 41-0 at home to Western Michigan and was outgained by 302 yards.  Then the Zips lost 20-41 at Buffalo while getting outgained by 212 yards last week.  Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, too.

Toledo is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, so they've clearly had no trouble winning away from home.  Roll with Toledo Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10.5

The Utah Jazz are simply catching too many points tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them as double-digit underdogs here.

This is really the perfect storm.  Utah is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS, while San Antonio is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  The betting public is all over the Spurs because of this and quick to fade the Jazz.  That has created some artificial line value here with the road dog.

It's worth noting that the Spurs have covered two games by a half point as they won by 8 as 7.5-point favorites over the Kings, and by 7 as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat.  It's also worth noting that both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are banged up right now, though both are expected to play.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against opponent after a game where they covered the spread are 162-100 (61.8%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for their first victory of the season.  After going on the road for their first two games and losing a couple heartbreakers, now they will be playing their home opener in front of a hostile crowd.  I look for a big performance from them.

And the Timberwolves really should have won their first two games.  They held an early 17-point lead against Memphis before losing 98-102.  They also squandered a big lead at Sacramento on Saturday.  They gave up an 18-point lead in the first half and lost 103-106.

Adding to the motivation for the Timberwolves is that they want revenge on Memphis here.  They were outscored by the Grizzlies 52-39 in the second half of the opener.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 this season, but they lost their only road game 104-111 to the New York Knicks.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Indians Game 6 No-Brainer on Chicago -142

The Chicago Cubs have some confidence now after winning their first elimination game of the postseason.  They beat the Indians 3-2 in Game 5 for a much-needed victory.  They believe they can still come back and win this series.

After all, Kris Bryant was told that the Cubs have had 17 three-game winning streaks following a loss this season.  So they know it's doable, and they certainly have the edge on the mound here in Game 6 with Jake Arrieta over Josh Tomlin.

Arrieta is 19-9 with a 3.15 ERA in 34 starts this season, while Tomlin is 15-9 with a 4.18 ERA in 32 starts.  Arrieta took a no-hitter into the 6th inning in Game 2 of this series in Cleveland, which Chicago won.

The Cubs are 40-15 in Arrieta's last 55 starts and 37-16 in his last 53 road starts.  Chicago is 44-15 in its last 60 games vs. a right-handed starter.  I fully expect Arrieta and company to force a Game 7.  Take the Cubs in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/T'Wolves UNDER 199.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are already familiar with one another.  That's because they both opened the season against each other on October 26th.

Memphis beat Minnesota 102-98 for 200 combined points, barely going over the 199-point total.  Now we're seeing a similar total in the rematch, but points are going to be much harder to come by in the rematch.  That's why I believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

I've also checked out the pace stats, and these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis ranks 28th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game.  Minnesota is 29th in pace at 94.3 possessions per game as Tom Thibodeau has them playing at a much slower tempo than last year.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Memphis is 53-33 UNDER in its last 86 road games after scoring 110 points or more in its previous game.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more three straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +17

The Bowling Green Falcons have been improving big-time as the season has gone on.  But they still remain undervalued here as they are catching 17 points in this MAC rivalry game with the Northern Illinois Huskies.  It's simply way too much.

Each of Bowling Green's last four losses have come by 14 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer.  And I was super-impressed with two of those efforts on the road.  The Falcons haven't been outgained by more than 39 yards in any of their last four games.

Bowling Green only lost 24-30 at Ohio as 11.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 19 yards.  The Falcons then went to Toledo and lost 35-42 as 31.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 39 yards in that contest.

Northern Illinois is just 2-6 on the season and doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from oddsmakes.  But the Huskies come in undervalued due to easily covering as 24-point favorites in a 44-7 win over Buffalo.  But Buffalo is easily the worst team in the MAC this season.

The Falcons are going to be able to move the football on a Northern Illinois defense that hasn't been good at all this season.  The Huskies are giving up 33.5 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That has been the biggest reason for their disastrous campaign thus far.

The Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bowling Green is 41-20-2 ATS in its last 63 road games overall.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have shown that in their past two games as they've hung right with two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.

The Suns lost 110-113 in overtime at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs on Friday, and then gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 100-106 home loss Sunday as 11.5-point dogs.  But they're now 0-3 on the season, so they are extremely hungry for a victory right now, which should have them keeping this game close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued here today after starting 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over the Blazers and the Jazz.  They beat the Blazers by 8 as 2.5-point road favorites, and the Jazz by 13 as 7.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  The Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Jazz were playing short-handed.

The Suns gave the Clippers trouble last season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  They won 114-105 and 118-104 in their two home meetings, and also only lost by 6 as 8.5-point road dogs in their three covers.  I look for them to stay within double-digits here tonight and possibly pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons.  Plays against home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Vikings are hungry to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  They fell 10-21 on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles last week.  After committing just one turnover through the first five games, the Vikings gave the ball away four time against the Eagles to essentially hand them the victory.  They also allowed a kickoff return TD.

The Vikings are No. 1 in the NFL with 16 takeaways, getting nine interceptions and seven fumble recoveries.  They lead the NFL in turnover differential (plus-11) and total defense (279.5 yards/game).  They are also tied for No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 points/game).

Now the Vikings will be up against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in this season.  The Bears rank last in the NFL in scoring at 15.9 points per game.  They are expected to start Jay Cutler at quarterback, but that's only because Brian Hoyer got hurt in a 10-26 loss at Green Bay last time out.  I don't believe the team totally supports Cutler, either.

Minnesota has won three straight and five of its past seven meetings with Chicago.  The Vikings are 19-4 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bears are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Denver Nuggets +7

The Denver Nuggets aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers in the early going, so I'm going to continue to back them here as I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are catching 7 points here against the Toronto Raptors, which I feel is too much.

The Nuggets opened the season with a 107-102 road win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.  They led by double-digits most the way and outrebounded the Pelicans 69-42, and won despite committing 24 turnovers.  Then they lost to the Blazers 113-115 (OT) as 1.5-point home dogs.  They shot just 38% from the field, but had a 72-57 edge on the boards, which kept them in the game.

And they had a 2-point lead in regulation with 15 seconds left and turned the ball over.  They had a 2-point lead with four seconds left and missed two free throws.  So, they should have won that game, and they'll come back motivated here.

I like to fade the Toronto Raptors in this spot.  Their last game came at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 91-94 loss.  After facing the defending champs last game, I don't foresee them being nearly as motivated to face the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets won both meetings with the Raptors as underdogs last season.  They won 106-105 as 10-point road dogs, and 112-93 as 4.5-point home dogs.  Denver is 10-1 ATS off two straight games where they outrebounded their opponent by 15 or more.  The Nuggets are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons.  Denver is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12

It's no surprise that the Golden State Warriors have opened 2016-17 way overvalued with the addition of Kevin Durant.  That has proven to be the case as they are 0-2 ATS.

They lost 100-129 at home to San Antonio as 8-point favorites, and failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites in a 122-114 road win over the Pelicans.  Now they are once again overvalued here as they're being asked to lay a whopping 12 points on the road to the Suns.

Phoenix is a team I'm going to be on early and often because they are undervalued.  The Suns played poorly in their opener, a 94-113 loss to the Kings, which has only added to their value.  But they took the Thunder to overtime on the road last time out as 7.5-point dogs and covered in a 110-113 loss.  Now they'll be up for this game against the two-time defending Western Conference champs.

The Suns played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, losing by 8 as 16-point home dogs and by 7 as 19-point road dogs.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Utah +7.5

The Utah Jazz are showing great value here as 7.5-point road dogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are clearly undervlaued right now after opening the season 0-2 against the spread.

They blew a fourth quarter lead in their opener and lost 104-113 as 5.5-point road dogs to the Blazers.  They also nearly blew a double-digit lead late in a 96-89 home win over the Lakers, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers now after winning 114-106 at Portland as 2.5-point road favorites.  But the Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back in that game and were clearly in a tough spot, and the Clippers gave a spirited effort as they wanted revenge from losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last year.

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Jazz are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is simply catching too many points here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3

The Atlanta Falcons are tired of hearing about how they started 5-0 last season, only to fall apart the rest of the way and finish 8-8.  They believe they are a different team this season, but they've been hearing their naysayers all week leading up to this game against the Green Bay Packers.

Because they have lost two in a row, everyone in the media is panicking.  But those two losses came by a combined five points to the Seahawks and Chargers.  If not for a blown pass interference call, they would have beaten the Seahawks.  And they lost in overtime last week after failing to convert a fourth-and-1 from their own side of the field in overtime.

I think this is going to be a circle-the-wagons game for the Falcons here to avoid having the same fate as last season.  The players are going to want to win this game for their head coach in Dan Quinn, who took a gamble on that 4th-and-1 play, and the players really have to appreciate him putting their trust in them in that situation.  Matt Ryan and company will respond in a big way.

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 32.7 points, 434 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  All are the best marks in the league.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well, which is also tops in the NFL.  Unlike last year, the numbers show that this is an elite team, and they already have wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year in the Broncos and Panthers.

The Packers still aren't right offensively this season.  They are only averaging 344 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that average 347 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  They have no running game to speak of with Eddy Lacy out, and he wasn't even effective when he was in there.  There's just too much pressure right now on Aaron Rodgers to do everything for him, and he hasn't handled it very well.

And this is a terrible matchup for the Packers' defense.  They are giving up 7.3 yards per pass attempt and now must face a Falcons offense that is averaging 319 passing yards per play and a sensational 9.2 per attempt.  Making matters worst for the Packers is that they are still without their top two corners in Sam Shield and Damarious Randall, and they could be without a third in Quinten Rollins, who is questionable with a groin injury.  Not to mention, top pass rusher Clay Matthews is questionable with a hamstring injury.  I just don't foresee the Packers getting many stops this week.

Dan Quinn is 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Atlanta.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs a team with a winning record.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  Remember, this is a team that went 15-1 last season and made the Super Bowl.  But now the Panthers are being way undervalued right now due to their poor start.

The bye week came at a great time for the Panthers as they needed it to get healthy.  Now they are near full strength entering this game.  And the Panthers are looking at these last 10 games as a completely new season.  The fact of the matter is that they are only three games back in the division and can still make a run at the division title.  So all of their goals are still in front of them.

The biggest difference for the Panthers this season is that they've lost the turnover battle.  After going +20 in turnover differential last season, they are -8 in turnover differential this season.  That has been a focal point during the bye week, and I look for Cam Newton and company to take much better care of the football going forward.

A big reason I say the Panthers are better than their record is because they have actually outgained four of their six opponents this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less as well, and they outgained two of those opponents.  They missed a game-winning field goal attempt against Denver, gave away the game against the Bucs with four turnovers, and lost on a last-second field goal against the Saints.

The Arizona Cardinals are in a terrible spot here.  They are tired from their overtime tie against the Seahawks on Sunday Night.  Now this is a West Coast team traveling out East for an early 10:00 AM start.  And teams are just 34-59 ATS after playing the Seahawks the week prior.  That was a physical game that will have taken a lot out of them, while the Panthers are fresh off their bye, making this the perfect situation for the home team.

Don't forget how badly the Panthers beat the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game last year.  They won that game 49-15 while outgaining the Cardinals 476 to 287, or by 189 total yards.  Carson Palmer went just 23 of 40 for 235 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in the loss.  And Palmer looks really washed up this season as age and injuries appear to finally be catching up to him.

Arizona is 0-7 ATS after allowing nine points or less last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to lose these games by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Carolina is 11-2 ATS in home games after playing its last game on the road over the past three seasons.  The Panthers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games versus good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games with Cam Newton at quarterback.  Newton is healthy after missing 1.5 games earlier this season and will lead the Panthers to a season-saving victory here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -6.5

This line has already moved from -4.5 to -6.5 and I agree with the move.  And I wouldn't be surprise to see it get to -7 before game-time, so I would recommend betting it early.

The Patriots have been hitting on all cylinders since Tom Brady returned from his four-game suspension.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three straight double-digits wins, and they are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the season.  I think they make it four wins in a row this week.

The Patriots want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 16-0 shutout home loss to the Bills in Week 4.  But banged-up third-stringer Jacoby Brissett started that game and did not play well.  Having Brady back will make all the difference this week.

The Bills were getting a lot of love for winning four straight prior to last week.  But their four wins all came with asterisks in my opinion.  They beat the Cardinals, who committed five turnovers to give the game away.  Then they beat Brissett and the short-handed Pats.  Then they beat the Rams, who were missing three starting defensive linemen.  And they also beat the worthless 49ers with Colin Kaepernick making his first start.

But the Bills lost 25-28 on the road to the Dolphins last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Bills were outgained by 187 yards by the Dolphins, and they gave up over 200 yards rushing.

Now the roles are reversed in the rematch and it's the Bills who have all kinds of injury issues to skill position players.  LeSean McCoy re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week and is doubtful to play.  Top receiver Sammy Watkins has been out for a while.  But the next two best receivers are Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.

Goodwin is doubtful to play this week after suffering an injury against the Dolphins, and Woods is questionable.  I just don't see how the Bills are going to move the football considering the Patriots can stack the box to stop the run, and they won't have to deal with McCoy.  I don't see Tyrod Taylor having much success through the air with all of the weapons he's missing.  He's been practicing with new faces at receiver all week.

The Patriots have never lost twice in the same season to a division opponent.  They are 18-3 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent in their last 21 chances.  New England is also 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road meetings with Buffalo.  A whopping 10 of those wins have come by 7 points or more as well.  New England will win this one by at least a TD, and likely double-digits this week.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2

I backed the Nuggets with success in their 107-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their opener on Wednesday night.  I'll come back with them here as they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have beaten the Jazz but lost to the Clippers at home.  Now they'll be on their first road game.

The Nuggets have stockpiled talent and will prove to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.

But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

The Nuggets controlled the game against the Pelicans in the opener as they led basically the entire way.  What was so impressive about that win was the fact that they committed 24 turnovers compared to 11 for the Pelicans, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  The Nuggets also had a 69-42 edge in rebounds, and they will outrebound most of their opponents this season because they are so strong inside.  And they have a lot of length at all positions.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

15* Indians/Cubs Game 4 No-Brainer on Chicago -127

The Chicago Cubs find themselves in the same position as last series.  Trailing 2-1 to the Dodgers, the Cubs reeled off three straight victories from then-on to win the series.  I think they can do the same thing here, and they will certainly have the confidence to pull it off considering they've already done it before.

Corey Kluber isn't invincible.  He is pitching on short rest here, just as he did in Game 4 against the Blue Jays.  The Indians lost that game, and I expect them to lose this one as well.  It was the first time that the Cubs have seen Kluber in Game 1, and they'll know what to expect the second time around.

Veteran John Lackey has a ton of postseason experience and won't shy away from the moment here.  The Cubs have won both of his postseason starts against the Giants and Dodgers.  Lackey is 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA in 31 starts this season.

The Cubs are 5-0 in Lackey's last five starts.  Chicago is 21-6 in its last 28 games followign a loss.  The Cubs are 8-1 in their last nine interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 6-1 in Lackey's last seven home starts.  Roll with the Cubs in Game 4 Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +44

This play is almost exclusively about motivation, or lack thereof, for the Texas A&M Aggies.  They just played their 'Game of the Year' against Alabama last week, and they're not going to be motivated at all to face New Mexico State this week.  I look for them to suffer a big hangover here, and for them to fail to cover this massive 44-point spread because of it.

Not only is it a flat spot for the Aggies, but you know that Kevin Sumlin isn't going to be concerned with playing his starters for much more than a half if they get up big early.  So New Mexico State will have a chance to play close to an even game in the second half against Texas A&M's backups if the game gets away from them early.

Admittedly, New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football, but I actually like the direction that head coach Doug Martin has this team headed.  We've seen New Mexico State beat a very solid New Mexico team that made a bowl last year and is likely headed to a bowl again this year.  They were 11-point dogs in that game.  They also beat LA Lafayette 37-31 as 5-point dogs.

Some will look at the 52-6 loss to Troy and say that Texas A&M is the right side.  But a closer look shows that New Mexico State actually outgained Troy by 47 yards in that game, but gave it away by committing five turnovers.  And that's the same Troy team that nearly beat Clemson earlier this season.  It was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I was really impressed with New Mexico State's 19-22 home loss to Georgia Southern as 13.5-point dogs last week.  The Aggies actually outgained the Eagles by 21 yards in that game.  Georgia Southern is one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country.

What gives New Mexico State a chance to hang around in this game is their offense.  If I'm going to take a big dog like this, I like to know that they can at least score, and New Mexico State can.  It is actually averaging 432 yards per game against opponents that allow 406 yards per game, so this is actually an above-average offense.

New Mexico State features a passing attack that actually produces 300 yards per game.  Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 2,008 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt.  After missing the first three games due to injury, senior RB Larry Rose III has returned to rush for 281 yards over the past four weeks.  He has 12 receptions for 86 yards as well.

Texas A&M's defense gets a lot of hype for its improvement, but the numbers show that the Aggies are just a middle-of-the-pack defense.  They give up 439 yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.  Rogers should find plenty of success through the air to put up enough points to stay within this 44-point spread.

Plays against any team (TEXAS A&M) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Kevin Sumlin is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the coach of Texas A&M.  Sumlin has his work cut out for him this week.  The players realize their dreams of winning the SEC West are crushed after that loss to Alabama.  Beating New Mexico State isn't going to change that.  I don't expect Texas A&M to show up at all here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +24.5

For starters, this is the biggest underdog that the Michigan State Spartans have been in this rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines since 1992.  Secondly, 22 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 24 points or less.  Those two facts alone show you just how much value there is on Michigan State here.

The betting public has bet Michigan from from -18.5 all the way up to -24.5 as of this writing on Thursday.  This is the perfect storm as the Wolverines could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now, while the Spartans couldn't be more undervalued heading into this game.

I always look to bet underdogs in rivalry games first, especially home underdogs.  But when these home dogs are getting more than 20 points, it's really a no-brainer.  I don't care what Michigan State has done to this point, the Spartans will show up for this game, and Mark Dantonio will have them ready to go.

The Spartans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  They have been favored in all five games, and the betting public has been killed by backing them, so they want nothing to do with them now.  But they weren't outplayed in any of those losses outside of BYU as they outgained two opponents and were only outgained by 15 and 21 yards in their two other losses.

In their only games as underdogs this season, the Spartans won outright 36-28 as 7.5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.  Dantonio absolutely relishes the role of the dog, and he takes this rivalry with Michigan very personally ever since they were called the 'little brother' several years ago.  He relays that message to his players as well.

Michigan State has risen to the occasion against Michigan over the past decade.  The Spartans are 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Michigan.  Their only loss came by a final of 10-12 in 2012 as 8.5-point road dogs.  The Spartans have won each of their last four home meetings with the Wolverines, including the last three in blowout fashion by 24, 23 and 14 points.

The Game of the Year line on this game released before the season was Michigan -2.  So this is a 22.5-point adjustment.  I agree that the Wolverines should be favored by more than 2 now after what we've seen, but this is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect Michigan to win the game, but not by more than 24.5 points.

The Wolverines haven't been tested on the road yet.  Their only road game came against Rutgers, and Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten.  They've hardly been tested at all, really, because their schedule has been so soft.  The best team they played was Wisconsin, and they only beat them 14-7 at home.

Keep in mind that Michigan State actually outgained Wisconsin despite losing by 24 in what was a very misleading final.  This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season to this point in my opinion, especially since it's on the road.

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS vs good passing defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans have never lost int his situation under Dantonio.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a great spot here.  They are coming off their bye week, and they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday at home against Kansas State.  They'll also be motivated for their first Big 12 win of the season, and this is clearly their best chance to get it as Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the conference.

Keep in mind that Iowa State nearly beat Baylor and Oklahoma State a few weeks back.  The Cyclones blew a 42-28 lead in the fourth quarter as 17-point home dogs to Baylor and lost 42-45 on a last second field goal.  They led 31-14 as 14-point road dogs at Oklahoma State and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose 31-38.

Those two performances really showed what they were capable of.  And the next week they were leading Texas 6-3 on the road at halftime, but ran out of gas and lost 27-6.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time because the Cyclones really needed it to rest and get healthy.  They won't be running out of gas this week against Kansas State as they'll be ready for a big performance for four quarters.

That's especially the case considering they want revenge from last year's 35-38 road loss at Kansas State.  They led that game 35-14 and gave up 24 unanswered points over the final two quarters.  They fumbled with under two minutes to go when they could have kneeled on the ball and won.  Kansas State took advantage and tied it with 42 seconds to go, then capitalized on another turnover and won it on a 42-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.

Kansas State's numbers in conference games have been horrible.  Despite going 2-2 straight up, they have actually been outgained 340.2 to 467.0 in conference play, or by an average of nearly 127 yards per game.  Their offense is only averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season against teams that give up 422 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  Their offense just doesn't allow them to win in blowouts, which is why the 6.5-point spread could easily come into play.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that there's a ton of value with the home dog.  Indeed, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  The sick part about that is that Kansas State has won all eight.  The Cyclones are tired of it, and they finally should be able to do something about it this year now that they are in a great spot coming off their bye week.

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  First-year head coach Matt Campbell will have used this bye week to correct the mistakes, and I look for the Cyclones to continue to be a good bet moving forward, especially this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +13.5

I had five premium picks last Saturday, and Purdue and Penn State were two of them.  Purdue covered as 24-point dogs at Nebraska, while Penn State won outright as 19.5-point dogs against Ohio State.  So I feel like I have a good grasp on both of these teams.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Penn State off that big win over Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have been getting patted on the back all week, and now I look for them to fall flat against Purdue here.  Keep in mind that Ohio State outgained Penn State by 94 yards in that game and should have won.  The Nittany Lions were the right side as 19.5-point dogs, but they should not have won outright as it took a miracle blocked FG returned for a TD.

James Franklin wasn't concerned with looking ahead to this game as he wanted to relish in the moment.  "Obviously these types of wins are important," Franklin said. "To be honest with you, I don't want to spend a lot of time thinking about the big picture right now, I just want to soak this all in. Nights like this don't happen very often."

I really like what I've seen from Purdue the past three games.  They won outright as 9-point underdogs at Illinois, they scored 35 points and put up over 500 yards of offense against Iowa in a 14-point loss, and they actually led Nebraska 14-10 on the road at halftime last week before losing by 13, easily covering as 24-point dogs.

Boilermaker quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in completions (173) and yards (2,065) and has already thrown 14 touchdown passes.  Senior receiver DeAngelo Yancey is coming off a big game against Nebraska with four catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  And the defense held Nebraska to just 27 points, including 157 rushing yards on 37 carries, which equates to 4.2 per carry.  It was their most impressive defensive performance yet.

Clearly the switch to interim head coach Gerad Parker last week has rejuvenated the Boilermakers.  He has instilled a more positive, upbeat approach.  I liked what he had to say after the narrow loss to Nebraska, and the fact of the matter is that at 3-4, the Boilermakers could legitimately still make a run at a bowl game.

"It was a fun run. We have to take that and build off of that so we become that same team the second half," Parker said. "It was a fun ride. You could see the belief in those kids' eyes. I think they know they let one fall through here. That's how they feel. It's going to be fun to coach them the rest of the weeks to try to get them to this point where they keep believing."

Penn State has benefited from playing three straight home games, all of which they have won, two of which have come by a field goal.  The other was a blowout win over a Maryland team that lost starting quarterback Perry Hills and could never recover.

But the Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Pittsburgh and at Michigan by 39 points.  In fact, they have lost their last seven true road games dating back to a November 18, 2014 victory at Indiana.  This team has been an awful road bet for years, and now they're being asked to lay nearly two touchdowns away from Happy Vally.

Penn State has only covered the spread in 3 of its last 19 road games.  It is 0-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons alone.  Purdue is 7-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (PURDUE) - after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +33

The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much love from the betting public right now.  This line actually opened at -25.5 and has jumped nearly 8 points to -33.  I felt the opener was about right, but now we're getting all kinds of value here with Virginia catching 33 at home.

Many think Louisville needs style points to make the four-team playoff, and while that is somewhat true, it's also overblown.  What is the difference between a 21-point win and a 35-point win against Virginia in the eyes of the playoff committee? The answer is not much at all, and it's more realistic that they win by 21 than 35.

I also think that the Cardinals are even more overvalued this week due to their 54-13 win over NC State last week.  But that was an awful spot for NC State, which was coming off a devastating overtime loss at Clemson.  The Wolfpack missed a short field goal that would have won that game.  They came out flat against Louisville and got pummeled.

Virginia is not going to come out flat.  It is looking forward to this opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country at home.  And I think the Cavaliers are being undervalued due to their 14-35 loss to UNC as 10.5-point dogs last week.  This line (-33) implies that Louisville is 23 points better than UNC, and I just don't think that's the case.

And that performance against UNC was by far the worst for Virginia in weeks.  In the four prior games, Virginia outgained UConn by 104 yards in a 10-13 road loss, beat Central Michigan 49-35 at home, won 34-20 at Duke, and outgained Pitt by 18 yards in a 31-45 loss that was a misleading final.  Pitt got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only gained 346 yards of offense.

Virginia had poor teams the past two years, yet still played Louisville tough.  The Cavaliers only lost 31-38 as 13.5-point road dogs at Louisville last year.  They also won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  This system has actually gone a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past five seasons.

Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, only losing by 7.3 points per game on average.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +10

I still believe the Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their ugly performance in their opener.  But that 94-113 home loss to Sacramento has only added to their value here against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they are catching double-digits.

The Thunder have no business being double-digit favorites after losing Kevin Durant this offseason.  They barely survived in a 103-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their opener.  Their options are very limited on offense now, and I don't foresee them putting away the Suns by double-digits here.

Phoenix has one of the best guard trios in the NBA in Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  The Suns didn't get off to a good start against the Kings as they trailed 57-38 at half, but their depth really showed as the second unit was able to cut the lead to 10 in the third quarter, though that was as close as they would get.  Veteran starters in Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and company will look for a big bounce-back performance here.

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss.  The Suns are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* Indians/Cubs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -185

The Chicago Cubs picked up a huge Game 2 victory by a final of 5-1.  Now they will take control of this series with a win in Game 3 in front of a raucous crowd at Wrigley Field.  After all, this will be the first World Series game played at Wrigley in a whopping 71 years.

Now the Cubs send their best starter to the mound in Kyle Hendricks, who is 10-3 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Hendricks has carried over that success in the postseason by going 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in three playoff starts.

There's no question that the Cubs have a massive edge on the mound in this one.  Hendricks will be opposed by Josh Tomlin, who is 15-9 with a 4.31 ERA in 31 starts this season.  The Cubs have scored five runs or more in four of their last five games, and their bats should stay red hot against Tomlin tonight.

The Cubs are 27-11 in Hendricks' last 38 home starts.  Chicago is 16-5 in Hendricks' last 21 starts overall.  The Cubs are 57-23 in their last 80 home games.  Chicago is 43-13 in its last 56 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Cubs in Game 3 Friday.

15* Navy/USF ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +6.5

The Navy Midshipmen have been one of the most underrated teams in college football last season. Many thought they would take a big step back with the loss of Keenan Reynolds, and then their opening day starting QB Tago Smith, but that simply has not been the case. Ken Niumatalolo has done a tremendous job.

Navy is off to a 5-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road at Air Force. The last two games have really shown what the Midshipmen are capable of. They beat Houston 46-40 as 16-point home underdogs, and Memphis 42-28 as 1.5-point home favorites. Both Houston and Memphis were among the favorites to win the AAC this season.

The Midshipmen rushed for 306 yards against Houston and 447 yards against Memphis. Senior QB Will Worth has been phenomenal. He has rushed for a combined 316 yards over the past two games and four touchdowns, while also throwing four touchdown passes through the air without an interception.

South Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. That was evident last week in a 30-46 loss at Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were thoroughly outplayed in that game as the Owls outgained them by 179 yards. I have a feeling this team is running out of gas.

South Florida hasn’t had a bye week yet. The Bulls have played 8 straight weeks to open the season, and this will be their 9th straight. They showed signs of wearing down against Temple last week. Meanwhile, Navy has only played six games this season, so it is clearly the fresher team right now. And the Midshipmen had a bye before playing Memphis last week.

Making matters worse is that the injuries are piling up for the Bulls because of this brutal schedule to open the season without a bye week.  Quarterback Quinton Flowers suffered a hamstring injury last week against Temple, and even though he's expected to play tonight, he's not going to be the same dual-threat QB he normally is as he'll be operating at much less than 100%.  The Midshipmen won't have to worry about his legs as much as they would have otherwise.

This is a very bad matchup for the Bulls, who are giving up 206 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season. They allowed 319 rushing yards to Temple last week and 478 to Florida State earlier this season. The Midshipmen average 293 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground. They will try to break USF’s will this week and test their stamina with their triple-option attack.

Navy dominated South Florida in a 29-17 home victory last season. The Midshipmen racked up 444 total yards, including 428 rushing. They held the Bulls to just 270 total yards, outgaining them by 174 yards in the win.

The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus poor rush defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game. Navy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Midshipmen are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Navy Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +8.5

The Sacramento Kings shot the lights out in the preseason, and it certainly carried over into their regular season opener last night against the Phoenix Suns.  They won 113-94 and shot 51.2% from the field.  Now the fans will come out excited for their home opener Thursday night against the San Antonio Spurs.

Dave Joerger, the former Grizzlies' coach, is working his magic for the Kings this season.  DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 13 boards in only 24 minutes last night.  Rudy Gay had 22 points, and newcomers Matt Barnes (14) and Garrett Temple (12) both had solid games as well.  This is clearly a better roster than the Kings are getting credit for.

I love fading the San Antonio Spurs in this spot.  They are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night in their opener.  They killed the Warriors on the boards, but that won't be the case against the Kings.  And the Spurs certainly won't be up for the Kings like they were against the Warriors.

The Kings will be unveiling their new $557 million, 17,500-seat Golden 1 Center arena in the city's downtown area.  Look for them to play with added incentive tonight to please their home fans, which makes me much less concerned that they are playing the second of a back-to-back here, especially since they didn't need their starters to play big minutes last night against Phoenix.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.