Winning Sports Picks

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on BYU +6

The BYU Cougars should not be catching points against the Southern Miss Eagles tonight. At 23-11 on the season, BYU is one of the most underrated teams in the country. I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight to try and get to Madison Square Garden.

No team has been as dominant as BYU in the NIT thus far. It beat Washington 90-79 at home before dominating Mercer 90-71. This is a very balanced team that can beat you inside and out. Tyler Haws (21.5 PPG), Brandon Davies (18.0 PPG) and Matt Carlino (11.2 PPG) form one of the best trios in the country.

Southern Miss has not been as impressive thus far with a 78-71 victory over Charleston Southern as an 11.5-point favorite, and a 63-52 win over LA Tech as an 8-point favorite. Having just one day to prepare for this complex, up-tempo BYU team simply isn't enough.

The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Conference USA. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Cougars. Take BYU Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Cavaliers UNDER 195.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams are missing key players that will help keep the final combined score UNDER the posted total in this one.

Boston will be without Kevin Garnett (14.9 PPG) and Courtney Lee (7.8 PPG) tonight. They were already without Rondo and Jared Sullinger to boot. Cleveland will be without its top two scorers in Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) and Dion Waiters (14.7 PPG). Third-leading scorer Anderson Varejao (14.1 PPG) was already out.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Each of the last five meetings have seen 194 or less combined points and an average of 181.2 points/game. That's roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Virginia NIT Wednesday No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT in my opinion. The Big Ten has proven to be the toughest conference in the country with four teams through to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is 23-12 on the season with a .500 record in Big Ten play. This team is even better than its record would indicate because it has suffered so many close losses this year.

That includes losses to Indiana (65-69), Michigan State (59-62), Purdue (65-62), Minnesota (59-62), Wisconsin (79-74), Nebraska (70-74) and Michigan State (56-59). As you can see, the Hawkeyes have SEVEN Big Ten losses by FOUR POINTS OR LESS.

Iowa is 12-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Iowa is 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season. These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Mavs TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Dallas Money Line -109

The Dallas Mavericks are quietly sneaking up on that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 1.5 games thanks to a nice run in which they have won eight of their last 11 games overall.

Dallas has been undervalued for quite some time now due to a slow start to the season. That's evident by the fact that it is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games overall. The Mavs should be laying points to the Clippers tonight.

The Mavs come in highly motivated to make the playoffs, but they also want revenge on Los Angeles. They have lost the first two meeting in this series this season, but both of those came in Los Angeles. Dallas is 24-6 SU in its last 30 home meetings with the Clippers.

The Mavericks are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* College Basketball GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bradley +11

The Bradley Braves get the call tonight as a double-digit road underdog to the Northern Iowa Panthers. These are two familiar foes as they both come from the Missouri Valley Conference, and there's no way the Panthers should be favored this heavily because of it.

I have no doubt that Northern Iowa is overvalued here due to its two victories over Bradley in the regular season. UNI won the first meeting 84-53 at home on January 12th, and the second meeting 68-65 on the road on February 10th. The Braves will have serious revenge in mind, while the Panthers will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the same team three times.

This play falls into a system that is 116-58 (66.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BRADLEY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.

Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Bradley is 23-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 21-39 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997. Take Bradley Thursday.

15* LA Tech/Southern Miss NIT BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech +7.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They put together a 27-6 season and I have no doubt that this team is better than several squads in the NCAA Tournament.

They are out to prove it in the NIT, and they are off to a damn good start in doing so. They won at Florida State 71-66 as a 3-point underdog in their opener to pick up a big road win. I fully expect them to win outright tonight as well, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Southern Miss doesn't even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament after a double-OT loss to Memphis in the Conference USA Championship Game. That was evident when the Golden Eagles only beat Charleston Southern 78-71 at home as an 11.5-point favorite in their NIT opener.

These teams actually met once already this season way back on December 8th. Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 65-55 at home as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs limited the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting while forcing 25 turnovers in the victory.

The Bulldogs are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Southern Miss is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. Take Louisiana Tech Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. I look for them to roll to a blowout victory because of it.

The Jazz trail the Los Angeles Lakers by two games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means they cannot afford to take nights off, which isn't the case for Philadelphia (27-42).

The 76ers are certainly fatigued right now as this will be their 4th road game in 6 days out on the West Coast. They played the Clippers, Nuggets and Kings before this contest with the Jazz.

Utah comes in undervalued due to its 4-game losing streak. It lost to the Knicks at home before going on the road and falling to Houston, San Antonio and Dallas. All four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and now the schedule finally lightens up as they welcome the 76ers.

The Jazz are 24-9 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 7-25 on the road. Utah is 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Jazz are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia. The 76ers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the 76ers. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on BYU -7

The BYU Cougars should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Mercer Bears. The Cougars are 16-3 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.3 points/game.

Mercer comes in getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for its 75-67 victory at Tennessee in its first NIT game. It caught the Volunteers in a huge letdown spot as they did not even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament field.

BYU is more than happy to be playing in the NIT, and it wants to get to Madison Square Garden. The Cougars proved that with a 90-79 home victory over a very good Washington team as a 6-point favorite in the opening round.

This play falls into a system that is 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BYU) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).

BYU is 110-69 ATS as a home favorite or pick since 1997. The Cougars are 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Bet BYU Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Denver Nuggets are way overvalued tonight as a 7-point road favorite over the New Orleans Hornets. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their franchise-record 15-game winning streak.

Denver has showed signs of being way overvalued in its last two games. It beat Philadelphia 101-100 at home on Thursday as a 15-point favorite, and topped Sacramento 101-95 at home on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are just 17-19 on the road this season, so they have no business even being favored in this one. That's especially the case considering New Orleans has been giant killers of late.

The Hornets have won their last two games with an 87-86 home victory over Boston as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday, and a 90-83 home victory over Memphis as a 6-point underdog on Friday. They have had two days' rest since that win over the Grizzlies, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Heat/Magic ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Orlando +13

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 26-game winning streak. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games overall with the only exception being a 109-77 home victory over the league-worst Charlotte Bobcats last night.

That means Miami will be a tired team heading into this contest with the Magic. In fact, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. Orlando comes in on two days' rest having last played on Friday in an 89-97 home loss to Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog.

The Heat don't give the Magic the kind of respect they deserve. That's evident considering both meetings this season were decided by a combined 3 points. That includes a 97-96 home victory for Miami on March 6th as a 15-point favorite, and a 112-110 road victory for the Heat on December 31st as a 9.5-point favorite.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have been decided by 13 points. That 13-point victory was by Orlando at home in 2012. Miami's biggest margin of victory over the Magic during this span has been 12 points.

Miami hasn't won in Orlando by more than 10 points since a 105-90 road victory way back in 2004. That's a span of 17 meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system since 2004 backing the Magic. Take Orlando Monday.

20* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 28-6 SU and an incredible 21-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should have been a 20-plus point favorite against Pacific in the Round of 64 as they cruised to a 78-49 victory as a 12-point favorite.

Now, they should be laying double-digits against an overrated Illinois team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. The Illini are one of the most inconsistent teams left in the NCAA Tournament. They rely way too heavily on the 3-point shot.

Illinois attempts 24 3-pointers per game, making just 32.3% of them. That's why they are so inconsistent. They'll be up against a solid defense in Miami that allows just 60.3 points/game and 39.7% shooting, including 32.7% from the 3-point stripe.

Miami is 14-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These four tends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Sunday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Houston Money Line +105

The Houston Rockets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are clearly overvalued here due to the return of Tony Parker to the lineup. I'll take advantage and back the home underdog Rockets.

Houston is 24-10 SU & 21-13 ATS in all home games this season. It is scoring a whopping 110.1 points/game at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game.

The Rockets want revenge from three earlier losses to San Antonio this season. Two of those losses came by single digits, and all three were back in December. This team has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and it will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep tonight.

Houston is an incredible 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday night. This team goes under the radar as nobody is giving it a shot to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Only the Blazers are giving themselves a shot. They only trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. This team is rising up to the occasion as it's coming off two of its biggest victories of the season.

Portland won 99-89 at Chicago as a 6-point underdog on March 21st, and 104-93 at Atlanta as a 7.5-point dog the next night on March 22nd. Those performances just show how the Blazers have taken their game to the next level, and that they are going to fight until the end to get in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City has proven to be overvalued here of late. It is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 104-114 home loss to Denver, an 89-90 road loss to Memphis, and a 97-89 road win at Orlando.

Portland wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma City, including two this season. It lost 87-83 at home to the Thunder on January 13th, and 92-106 on the road on November 2nd. There's no question that the Blazers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Blazers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Portland. Take the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks Sunday. The Bucks come in highly motivated for a victory for a couple of different reasons.

First, Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Indiana heading into this one. That means it will be out for revenge from a 90-98 loss at Atlanta on March 20th less than a week ago. In fact, it has lost both meetings with the Hawks this season, so it will be playing with double revenge.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

Milwaukee is expected to get Ersan Ilyasova (back), one of the most underrated players in the league, back from injury today. He has missed the past three games, and his return will give the team a big boost at home today.

The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Milwaukee Sunday.

20* Wichita State/Gonzaga Saturday Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6

The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite over the No. 9 seed Wichita State Shockers. The reason they're not is because this line is simply an overreaction from what happened in the first round.

Gonzaga struggled to beat Southern, eventually winning 64-58 despite being a 22.5-point favorite. Wichita State crushed Pittsburgh 73-55 despite being a 4.5-point underdog. Clearly, oddsmakers anticipated the betting public would be high on Wichita State and low on Gonzaga because of their performances in the round of 64.

That has created some excellent line value for us, and I'm going to take full advantage. Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, but it simply had an 'off' day. I look for the Bulldogs to rebound with a strong performance Saturday in front of what will be a home crowd for them in Salt Lake City, UT.

Gonzaga is now 32-2 on the season. Of those 32 wins, 24 have come by 7 points or more. Wichita State is getting too much respect here for its win over an overrated Pittsburgh team. Remember, this is the same Shockers team that has losses to Evansville (twice), Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton (twice) this season.

The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Gonzaga is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games. Wichita State is 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Gonzaga Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls represent my strongest release of the entire 2012-13 season in the Eastern Conference Saturday night. I look for the Bulls to blow the Indiana Pacers out of the building tonight folks.

Chicago comes in highly motivated to bounce back from back-to-back losses to Denver and Portland. In fact, it has lost four of its last five games overall. This is one of the most resilient teams in the league under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they have lost all three meetings with Indiana this season. There's no question they'll be fired up for revenge to avoid the season sweep, while the Pacers will have a hard time getting motivated after beating Chicago three times already this year.

While Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, Chicago comes in on one days' rest and playing just its 3rd game in 8 days. I'll gladly side with the more motivated, more rested Bulls in this one folks.

This play falls into a system that is 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival.

Thibodeau is 46-28 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 31-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Chicago Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats Money Line -108

The Charlotte Bobcats are motivated to go for their second 3-game winning streak of the season tonight. I like their chances of getting it against a Detroit Pistons team that appears to have already quit on their season.

Charlotte is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games with wins over Boston (100-74) as a 10.5-point underdog, Washington (119-114) as a 6.5-point dog, and Toronto (107-101) as a 6.5-point dog. It's nice to see that the Bobcats have clearly not quit on their season.

Detroit has been in a free fall since trading away Tayshaun Prince to Memphis. It has lost 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games overall while going a woeful 4-10 ATS in the process. Injuries to Andre Drummond and Brandon Knight have derailed the Pistons' season as well.

The Pistons will have a very hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight. That's because they just played in Miami last night and really gave the Heat a run for their money as they led at halftime. They kept it close in the 3rd before getting blown out in the 4th, falling 89-103. I look for Detroit to come out very flat tonight after such a crushing loss to the defending champs.

Detroit is 8-27 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 9.2 points/game away from home this year. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Take the Bobcats Saturday.

15* Saturday Round of 32 Line Mistake on Harvard +10

Harvard remains undervalued even after its 68-62 victory over New Mexico as a 10.5-point underdog in the Round of 64. The Crimson should not be catching double-digits against Arizona, which is overvalued due to its blowout 81-64 victory against an overrated Belmont team Thursday.

The Crimson have had a lot of luck out West this year, playing some very good team tough. It won at California 67-62 as an 11-point underdog, and lost at St. Mary's in the closing seconds 69-70 as a 12-point underdog. Both of those teams are playing in the NCAA Tournament.

Those weren't the Crimson's only impressive showings on the road, either. They lost at UMass 64-67 as an 11-point underdog, won at Boston College 79-63 as a 4-point dog, lost at UConn 49-57 as a 9-point dog, and lost at Memphis 50-60 as a 13.5-point dog. As you can see, Harvard is certainly battle-tested and proven heading into this one.

Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. The Crimson are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Harvard is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.

20* VCU/Michigan Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines should be a much bigger favorite in the Round of 32 against VCU. This line is simply an overreaction from VCU's blowout victory over Akron in the opening round.

I took Michigan in the Round of 64 in a blowout victory over South Dakota State. This team is still undervalued because it entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a tough finish that included a loss to Penn State, a heartbreaking 71-72 loss to Indiana to cost itself a Big Ten title, and a loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament.

Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan will have home-court advantage in this game as well as this contest will be played in Auburn Hills, MI.

VCU loves to press which can get teams WITHOUT GOOD GUARDS out of their rhythm offensively. Well, Michigan has some of the best guards in the country in Trey Burke and company, and it will eat VCU's press alive. This is simply a terrible match-up for the Rams because of it.

The Rams are 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season. This trend just goes to show how VCU struggles against teams like the Wolverines who can take care of the ball. Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* Minnesota/UCLA Friday Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3

The No. 6 UCLA Bruins should not be an underdog to the No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is another case where the Big Ten is being overvalued simply because almost everyone is proclaiming it as the best conference in the country.

Minnesota went just 8-11 in all Big Ten games this season and still made the NCAA Tournament. They also lost badly to Duke 89-71 on a neutral court in non-conference action. This team was so inconsistent all year with losses to the likes of Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Purdue within the conference.

A big reason UCLA is undervalued here is the fact that they'll be without second-leading scorer Jordan Adams (foot) for the rest of the season. However, this team has plenty of talent to make up for his absence, and they have been preparing to play without him, so it won't be a shock to them.

The Bruins went 25-9 this season, including 13-5 in the improved Pac-12 to capture the regular season title. This is a team that beat Missouri out of conference, and fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Cal, Colorado, and Arizona (three times) within the Pac-12.

Minnesota is 1-14 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Bruins. Bet UCLA Friday.

15* Oklahoma/SDSU Friday Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma +3

The Mountain West Conference is extremely overrated this season. That is certainly reflected in this line as San Diego State is favored over Oklahoma when it really shouldn't be despite being the lower seed.

San Diego State went just 9-7 in the MWC during the regular season before falling to New Mexico 60-50 in the conference tournament. It lost to Syracuse and Arizona on a neutral court in non-conference play in by far its two toughest games outside the MWC.

I just love this veteran Oklahoma team that returned five starters under second-year head coach Lon Kruger, who is a proven winner. The Sooners played in a much tougher conference in the Big 12 while going 11-7 in league play. They beat the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State this year.

Oklahoma has been underrated all season, going a super 17-10 ATS in all games this year. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Mountain West opponents. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off arguably their biggest victory of the season with a 90-89 (OT) home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on a last-second tip-in by Marc Gasol.

Off such a big win, the Grizzlies will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team with a losing record like the New Orleans Hornets Friday. Memphis will also be very tired as this will be its 7th game in 11 days, and it's coming off an OT game.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. New Orleans has played Memphis tough as all three meetings were decided by 11 points or less. In fact, the Hornets went on the road and beat the Grizzlies 91-83 on January 27th as a 7.5-point underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 35-6 (85.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12.5

I look for the Houston Rockets to roll to victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home tonight. In fact, I fully expect the Rockets to be covering this spread by the end of the 1st quarter and to never look back folks.

Cleveland is in a huge letdown spot here. It had a chance to pull off the upset of the season and to put an end to Miami's 23-game winning streak on Thursday, but it blew a 27-point lead and lost 98-95. It will have a hard time recovering from such a tough defeat.

Houston won't have a hard time at all getting up for Cleveland knowing that it just about beat Miami the other night. Plus, the Rockets are fighting for their playoff lives and for playoff positioning, so they cannot afford to take nights off.

The Rockets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Cleveland dating back to 2005. Six of those wins came by double-digits, and five of them came by 15 points or more. Take Houston Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +15.5

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 24-game winning streak. That has been the case for the last half of this streak as they are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

Miami has had a way of playing to its competition during this streak. It has narrow home victories over Sacramento (double OT) and Orlando (97-96), as well as a fortunate road win over Cleveland (98-95) here recently.

The Heat had to come back from 27 points down to beat the Cavaliers on Thursday. They have came way back a few times during this streak, and now it's installed in their minds that they can come back from any deficit. That mentality allows them to be lazy for 3/4 of the game and try the other 1/4.

Detroit comes in undervalued due to its 9-game losing streak, which includes an embarrassing 82-119 loss to Brooklyn last time on out March 18th. The Pistons have had three days off since that defeat, and they'll come back not only motivated to bounce back from it, but to put an end to the Heat's winning streak.

This play falls into a system that is 68-28 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

The Pistons are 31-15 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 41-23 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the Heat. Roll with Miami Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -5

This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. First and foremost, this game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO so the Kansas State Wildcats (27-7) will have a huge home-court advantage over La Salle.

The reason this line is so small is because the betting public saw La Salle beat Boise State 80-71 in the "first four" by shooting lights out from the field. Folks, that's not going to happen again against a much better defensive team in Kansas State.

In fact, La Salle went 31-of-49 from the field including 11-of-21 from 3-point range against Boise State. That 63% shooting percentage was the Explorers' best mark in any game this season. And they STILL couldn't put Boise State away completely.

Kansas State only gives up 60.4 points/game on 41.8% shooting on the season. That's impressive when you consider their opponents combined to average 69.0 points/game and 43.8% shooting in all games this year. That's getting it done defensively folks.

The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Explorers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents. La Salle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Take Kansas State Friday.

15* Friday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Cincinnati +3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats should not be an underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays in this Round of 64 match-up Friday. While the Bearcats are the higher seed at No. 10, they are the better team in this one.

The Missouri Valley Conference was way down this year, which is why I really believe that Creighton is overrated. The Blue Jays had losses to Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State Wichita State and Northern Iowa within the conference. They also lost to St Mary's and Boise State in two of their toughest non-conference games.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati played in the much tougher Big East Conference, which has it more battle-tested heading into this one. It also beat the likes of IOwa State, Oregon, Alabama and Xavier out of conference. Cincinnati will have the home-court edge as well as it is much closer to Philadelphia, PA than Creighton.

The Bearcats are 12-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bluejays are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Cincinnati Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -12

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 27-6 and an incredible 20-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a 20-plus point favorite over Pacific in the Round of 64.

One look at Pacific's performance in non-conference play, and it's easy to see that this team will not be able to compete with Miami. The Tigers have losses to Fresno State, Oral Robers, California (58-78), Gonzaga (67-85), Santa Clara and St. Mary's (46-74).

The Tigers are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games. The Hurricanes are 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. The Hurricanes are 13-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. These last two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Friday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Arizona -4

The Arizona Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite over Belmont Thursday in the Round of 64. The public believes that Belmont has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset, which has kept this line smaller than it should be. I'm not buying it.

Arizona is certainly the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Thursday. The Wildcats went 25-7 this season against a much tougher schedule than 26-6 Belmont faced. They got off to a 14-0 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Florida, Miami, San Diego State and Colorado. This team is the real deal, yet they aren't getting treated like it.

Belmont is a popular upset pick, but the fact of the matter is that this team doesn't have the talent to compete with a loaded roster like the one that Arizona brings to the table. That was evident in non-conference losses to Northeastern (74-71), VCU (65-75), Kansas (89-60) and UCF (66-63).

Another huge advantage is the fact that this game will be played out West in Salt Lake City, UT. There's no question that the Wildcats will have a big home-court edge in this one folks, though they don't need it to destroy the Bruins.

The Bruins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Belmont is 3-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997. Belmont is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats. Roll with Arizona Thursday.

15* SDSU/Michigan Thursday No-Brainer on Michigan -11

The Michigan Wolverines are way undervalued heading into the NCAA Tournament due to a poor finish to the season. They had a chance to share the Big 12 regular season title, but lost to Indiana in a last-second heartbreaker 72-71.

Michigan would go on to beat Penn State before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. That has given it some extra time to get back to the practice court and get back to the basics. Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois.

South Dakota State (25-9) will be no match for Michigan in this one. That's evident with the fact that two of their losses came to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Minnesota (88-64) and Belmont (76-49) in blowout fashion.

Not only is Michigan undervalued due to a poor finish, but it will also have a huge home-court advantage in this one to try and get back on track. This game will be played in Auburn Hills, MI, so you can certainly say that the Wolverines have gotten the luck of the draw here. They will have a big following Thursday night, and I look for these players to feed off of that.

The Wolverines are 22-4-1 (85%) ATS in their last 27 Thursday games. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 19-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take Michigan Thursday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Major Mismatch on Gonzaga -21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will roll to a 22-plus point victory Thursday over the Southern University Jaguars. The Bulldogs will have home-court advantage in the West Region as this game will be played in Salt Lake City, UT which is only several reasons I like them to cover this big number.

The biggest reason I'm backing the Bulldogs is the fact that Southern University played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and it still managed to lose nine games this year. It only played one NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State, losing 59-82 on the road. It also had double-digit losses to lowly Nebraska and TCU, which are bottom feeders in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively.

As you can see, Gonzaga is by far the best team that Southern has faced this season. What's most impressive about Gonzaga's 31-2 record heading into the NCAA Tournament is the fact that 13 of those 31 wins came by 22 or more points. That includes victories over West Virginia (84-50) and Oklahoma (72-47). Plus, Southern is one of the weakest opponents that the Bulldogs have faced all year.

The Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Gonzaga is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* Thursday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -3

Davidson has been one of the most popular upset picks in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. As a result, Marquette is only a 3-point favorite over the Wildcats. I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Golden Eagles in the Round of 64 Thursday because of it.

Davidson comes in way overvalued due to its 17-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. This team really hasn't beaten anyone of any significance during this streak. A look at its non-conference resume tells a different story.

The Wildcats have losses to New Mexico, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Gonzaga, Charlotte, Drexel and Duke. They really don't have a quality non-conference win unless you want to count Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Richmond. I'm not counting them.

Marquette has been underrated all season. It tied shared the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown with a 14-4 mark. This team also has a solid non-conference win over Wisconsin (60-50). Getting the Golden Eagles as only a 3-point favorite is an absolute gift.

The Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 11.6 points/game. The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games. Davidson is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Marquette Thursday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +1.5

The Memphis Tigers represent my strongest play in the Round of 64 for the 2013 NCAA Tournament. They should not be an underdog to the Saint Mary's Gaels in this one folks.

Memphis gets no respect despite its 30-4 record this season. That's because many believe that the Tigers didn't pick up any significant non-conference wins, but I beg to differ. They won at Tennessee 85-80 as a 2.5-point underdog. Sure, they lost to Minnesota, VCU and Louisville, but those aren't really bad losses.

The Tigers are the most athletic team in the entire NCAA Tournament. I believe that athleticism will prove to be too much for Saint Mary's to handle. The Tigers come into this game having won 24 of their last 25 games overall. I don't care who they have beaten during this stretch, that's impressive to say the least.

Saint Mary's is lacking quality wins as well. It has losses to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa this season. Its biggest wins have come against BYU and Creighton, which is far from impressive.

This team is simply getting too much respect for its 67-54 win over an overrated Middle Tennessee State team in the first round on Tuesday. I actually had the Gaels picked in that contest, but I'll gladly fade them as they take a huge step up in competition here.

Memphis has a big edge in rest and preparation as it was clearly getting ready for Saint Mary's or Middle Tennessee on Monday and Tuesday, while the Gaels had to get ready for the Blue Raiders. Saint Mary's is 1-7 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis Thursday.

20* La Salle/Boise State TruTV No-Brainer on Boise State -1.5

I fully expect Boise State to blow La Salle out of the building tonight. The talent level between these two teams is far and away in the Broncos' favor. I look for that to show on the court in this one.

Boise State is 21-10 on the season and well deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid. It played a tough non-conference schedule that featured a 70-74 loss at Michigan State as a 15.5-point underdog, and an 83-70 win at Creighton as a 13-point dog. It also played in the tough Mountain West which features three other NCAA Tournament teams in New Mexico, SDSU and UNLV.

While La Salle has a better record at 21-9, it's a bit inflated due to a weaker non-conference schedule. The Explorers are not playing well heading into the big dance, getting blown out 54-78 at Saint Louis, and 58-69 on a neutral court against Butler in their last two games.

One big factor in deciding the outcome of this game is kind of going unnoticed. That's the injury to La Salle center Steve Zack, who is out with a foot injury. Zack leads the team in blocks (36) and is second in rebounding (6.4 RPG). This is a small Explorers team as it is, and without Zack, they are going to get killed on the boards and in paint scoring.

The Explorers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boise State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Boise State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. Bet Boise State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +8.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Warriors are back on track and playing great basketball right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one outright.

Golden State has won four of its last five games overall, which includes a blowout home victory over New York (92-63), and back-to-back blowout road wins over Houston (108-78) and New Orleans (93-72). Yet, this team continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers.

San Antonio simply isn't the same team without Tony Parker. That's evident by the fact that it is just 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which includes a 106-136 home loss to Portland, and an ugly 83-107 road loss to Minnesota. Its 92-91 home win over Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite and its 119-113 home victory over Cleveland as a 15-point favorite weren't impressive, either.

This has been a very closely contested series of late with each of the last three meetings being decided by 7 points or less. That includes a 95-88 home victory by San Antonio on January 18th in their first meeting this season, and a 107-101 home win by Golden State on February 22nd in their second meeting of the year.

Golden State is 50-32 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 15-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take Golden State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +5

The New Orleans Hornets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. Boston is in a terrible state of mind after letting a double-digit lead slip away Monday against Miami, eventually losing 103-105. It will certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat tonight.

New Orleans comes in hungry for a victory after losing each of its last four games heading into this one. Three of those losses came on the road. I like its chances of bouncing back against a Boston team that is just 12-20 SU & 12-18-2 ATS in all road games this year.

The Hornets simply have the Celtics' number in this series. In fact, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Boston despite being an underdog in all five contests. That includes a 97-78 victory in their most recent home meeting, and a 90-78 road victory in their first meeting this season on January 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a close home loss by 3 points or less.

This play falls into another system that is 34-6 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Western Conference rivalry between Oklahoma City and Memphis. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these familiar foes who have some recent playoff history between them. Points will be hard to come by tonight.

Memphis was a low-scoring, defensive-minded team before trading away Rudy Gay. Since the trade, that has been the case even more as they lost their best scorer. It is scoring 93.5 points/game and allowing 89.2 points/game overall, including 93.0 and 86.8 at home.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Memphis' last four games overall with a 96-85 road win over the Clippers, an 80-87 loss at Denver, an 84-90 setback at Utah, and a 92-77 home victory over Minnesota. Those are four good offensive teams, and they combined with the Grizzlies to score 181, 167, 174 and 169 points, or an average of 172.8 points/game.

Playing at home, I look for Memphis to control the tempo and make this an ugly, half-court game. I don't believe the Thunder will be able to run at all like they normally like to. That's because they are a tired team right now. Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 9th game in 14 days after losing to Denver last night.

This play falls into a system that is 29-9 (76.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.

This play falls into another system that is 92-42 (68.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in March games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Mavs NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks have been in must-win mode for quite some time now. They continue to be considering they are 32-35 on the season, which has them just three games back of the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Dallas has been playing its best basketball of the season for a few months now while continuing to be undervalued due to its losing record. That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 4-point favorite over the Nets tonight.

Dallas has won six of its last eight games overall. Its only losses during this stretch came 91-92 at San Antonio as a 9.5-point underdog, and 101-107 vs. Oklahoma City as a 5-point dog. Those are the two best teams in the Western Conference, and the Mavs lost to both by a combined 7 points.

The Mavs beat the Nets 98-90 on the road on March 1st in their first meeting this season. Brooklyn is just 4-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. The Nets are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.

Dallas is 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. These two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge from a 78-92 loss at Toronto on March 15th, which was less than a week ago. The Bobcats will want payback, while the Raptors will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they just throttled just a few days back.

I really like Charlotte's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home here of late. In fact, it has won its last two home games with a 100-74 victory over Boston as a 10.5-point underdog, and a 119-114 triumph over Washington as a 6.5-point dog.

Toronto has no business being favored on the road against anyone, especially with the way it is playing of late. It has lost eight of its last 11 games overall with its only victories coming against Phoenix, Cleveland and Charlotte during this span. The Raptors are only 9-24 on the road this year.

Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Raptors. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 4-0 SU & in its last 4 home meetings with Toronto dating back to 2010. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* MTSU/Saint Mary's TruTV No-Brainer on Saint Mary's -3

The Saint Mary's Gaels certainly deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, on the other hand, do not. That's evident when you look at the strength of schedule that these teams have faced.

St. Mary's is 27-6 on the season with three of its losses coming against current No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga. Its other three losses all came away from home to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, which are three quality teams. The Gaels have beaten NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Harvard, and they have two wins over a very good BYU team as well.

While Middle Tennessee State is 28-5 on the season, a closer look shows that it really hasn't beaten anyone special. Its five losses have come to Florida (45-66), Akron (77-82), Belmont (49-64), Arkansas State (60-66) and Florida International (57-61). What the committee apparently considering its significant wins were vs. Ole Miss (65-62), at UCF (75-61) and vs. Vanderbilt (56-52). I really don't see a quality win there anywhere.

The Gaels are a perfect 19-0 SU in their last 19 games against teams other than Gonzaga dating back to December 27th. They are more battle-tested heading into the big dance, and as a result they will be more prepared to beat a team like Middle Tennessee State tonight. I believe that St. Mary's is the second-best team that the Blue Raiders have faced all season, and they won't be ready for it.

MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Gaels. Take St. Mary's Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northeastern +12

Northeastern is showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to Alabama Tuesday night in the opening round of the NIT. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Huskies in a game that I believe they can win outright.

Alabama comes into the NIT in a poor state of mind. After beating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, it thought it had a legitimate shot to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It lost to Florida in the next round and was left out by the committee. The Crimson Tide likely don't even want to be here.

Northeastern (20-12), on the other hand, is ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament to James Madison. The Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Of their 12 losses, only two came by more than 11 points. Those were a 63-83 loss at UAB, and a 57-70 loss to James Madison on a neutral court.

What I love most about Northeastern is the fact that it has played its best basketball on the road this season. In fact, it is just 7-8 at home this year, and an incredible 13-4 on the road. The Huskies will not be intimidated by Alabama's home crowd one bit tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.

Alabama is 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. The Huskies are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Northeastern Tuesday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +11

I'm siding with the Orlando Magic tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Orlando is underrated due to its 18-49 record on the season, and that has been evident over the past few weeks as it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97 (OT) loss at Miami as a 15.5-point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog.

As you can see, the Magic have been very competitive against some of the top teams in the league. They did lost 86-115 at home to Indiana on March 8th less than two weeks ago during this stretch. However, that places the them in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat.

Indiana is in a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days after winning at Cleveland last night, which followed up losses to the Lakers and 76ers. The Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated to beat a Magic team that they just throttled on March 9th.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is the fact that David West (back) missed last night's game and he's unlikely to return tonight against Orlando. So there's a good chance they'll be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days. West is their second-leading scorer (17.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.7 RPG).

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - good defensive team - allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.

The Magic are 20-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These six trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Orlando. Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -10

The Utah Jazz will blow the New York Knicks out of the building tonight for several reasons. The first of which is the fact that the Knicks are very short-handed right now, playing without Amare Stoudemire (out), Tyson Chandler (doubtful) and Carmelo Anthony (doubtful). There is a slight chance that Anthony plays tonight, but even if he does I have no doubt the Jazz will cover.

Making matters worse for the Knicks is the fact that they'll be running on fumes tonight. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for New York. Being short-handed makes handling this situation even tougher. Meanwhile, Utah will have a lot of energy to bring to the court considering this will only be its 2nd game in 5 days.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. Utah has serious revenge in mind as it will be looking for payback from an 84-113 loss at New York on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion considering it is 24-8 SU & 20-12 ATS at home this year.

The Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. New York is playing its worst basketball of the season due to these injuries, losing its last four games by 29, 23, 15 and 13 points. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +2.5

The Phoenix Suns should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Los Angeles Lakers. In fact, I fully expect the Suns to blow the Lakers out of the building in this one. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to winning its last two games despite having Kobe Bryant play just 12 minutes in the Indiana victory. He sat out last night's 113-102 home win over Sacramento.

Teams tend to actually play well without their superstar for a few games, but over time they certainly miss him. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Lakers simply do not have enough talent without Kobe to warrant being favored at Phoenix. That's especially the case considering how tired it is.

The Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. That is the toughest possible situation in the NBA, and that's what they're up against tonight. They'll be up against a Phoenix team that absolutely hates them and always seems to play them tough.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last few years. In fact, the home team has won each of the last eight meetings dating back to 2011. Phoenix is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 home meetings with Los Angeles despite being an underdog each time. It won by finals of 92-86, 125-105 and 102-90. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Lakers are 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a ATS win. The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Washington Wizards should not be favored on the road by 6.5 points over any team in the league. Not even the Charlotte Bobcats. I'll gladly fade the 23-42 Wizards, who are just 5-25 on the road this season.

Sure, the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, but as a result the betting public is almost completely off of them. That forces oddsmakers to inflate their lines, which should lead to some great betting opportunities the rest of the way.

Charlotte wants revenge from an 87-104 loss at Washington on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting it considering the Wizards are extremely tired right now. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Washington.

This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Washington is 4-16 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more since 1996. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Roll with Charlotte Monday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued for several reasons heading into this game with the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 13 games overall for one, and for two it is coming off a 99-93 victory at Indiana in a game where Kobe Bryant played just 12 minutes.

Because of this recent run, and that upset of the Pacers, the Lakers have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. The books are asking them to win by double-digits against a pesky Sacramento Kings team tonight to beat us, and I'm just not buying it.

Bryant is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury, and the Lakers clearly aren't as good without him. They can be for one game, but not for two or more. DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for Sacramento, but I like the Kings to cover no matter whether or not he plays. Cousins sat out a 121-79 home victory over Chicago on March 13th last time out, so the Kings have proven they can play without him. That also means that Sacramento comes in on three days' rest having last played on Wednesday.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Sacramento is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Los Angeles. The Lakers always have a way of bringing out the best in the Kings, while Los Angeles always has a way of playing down to its competition. The Lakers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Houston Rockets. In fact, they have lost the first three meetings of the season to Houston, which clearly doesn't sit will with them. At the same time, the Rockets are going to have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Warriors for a 4th time this year.

I'll gladly back the team that's playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. That's especially the case for the Warriors considering all three of their losses to Houston this year have come since February 5th, so in just 1.5 month's time. These losses are fresh in their mind and will be the fuel to the fire that they take to the court tonight.

Golden State is 25-12 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Golden State is coming off a bad home loss to Chicago, so that only has it further motivated tonight. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes made it all the way to the Big Ten Championship in 2012 before falling to Michigan State 64-68. They aren't going to let themselves come up short again in 2013. I look for them to roll to victory over the Wisconsin Badgers, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Ohio State has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. It is a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall, making backers a killing. Somehow, the Buckeyes remain undervalued in the Big Ten title game as they'll deliver the goods once again.

Wisconsin is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for its wins over Michigan and Indiana to get here. Sure, those are two very good teams, but Wisconsin matches up very well with them. Both Indiana and Michigan are offensive-minded, soft teams. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a gritty, defensive team similar to the Badgers. I just believe that Ohio State does it better, especially of late.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +8

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 21-game winning streak. The Toronto Raptors are fully capable of putting an end to it today, but I'm taking the points for some added insurance.

Miami has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that is simply cannot live up to with any consistency because of this streak. It has gone 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games overall during this streak. It has to get the opposing team's best shot each time it takes the court, which will wear on a team over time.

Toronto is a solid 17-16 at home this season. It will certainly be out for revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including a 116-123 (OT) road loss. In fact, the Raptors have now lost 10 straight meetings to the Heat, adding fuel to the fire.

Toronto is 17-6 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Florida SEC Championship No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels should not be catching double-digits in the SEC Championship against the Florida Gators. This team came in knowing it needed to at least make it to the SEC Championship to go on to play in the NCAA Tournament, and it has played its best basketball of the season under these tough circumstances.

I look for Ole Miss to try and take the decision out of the NCAA Tournament committee's hands by trying to upset the Gators this afternoon. It has won four straight coming in, including victories over Alabama and Missouri. It will want revenge from a 64-78 loss at Florida on February 2nd as a 17.5-point underdog. On a neutral court this time around, I look for the Rebels to stay within single-digits and possibly pulling off the upset.

Florida continues to be overvalued due to its torrid start to the season. It was literally killing teams through the first few months, but that hasn't been the case over the past month and a half. In fact, the Gators are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Once again, they remain overvalued as a double-digit favorite in the SEC Championship.

Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Rebels are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings dating back to 2008. Take Ole Miss Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to blow the Memphis Grizzlies out of the building tonight. This is an excellent spot to back the Jazz, who should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Grizzlies. Memphis is in an extremely tough spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are coming off an 80-87 loss at Denver last night. That means this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for Memphis. It certainly showed signs of wearing down last night as it blew a 4th quarter lead.

After losing five of its last six coming into this game, the Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. All five of those losses came on the road with four coming against current playoff teams. Utah will be the fresher team as it comes in on two days' rest. The Jazz are 23-8 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (UTAH) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Spurs UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Saturday as neither team exceeds 100 points in this one.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that each team is going to be without its best player. Cleveland is without leading scorer and assist man Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.7 APG), while San Antonio is without leading scorer and assist man Tony Parker (21.0 PPG, 7.6 APG).

The fact of the matter is that both offenses struggle without their points guards. Cleveland has been held to 97 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, while San Antonio has been limited to 83 and 92 points in its last two games, respectively. And those were against poor defensive teams in the Timberwolves and Mavericks.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 12-4 in Spurs last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Louisville Big East Championship Side on Syracuse +5

This will be the final season for the Syracuse Orange in the Big East. They are making the most of it by giving it one hell of a final run. I look for Jim Boeheim's squad to complete the run by knocking off Louisville in the Big East Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I've been saying since the start of the Big East Tournament that Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in any conference tournament in the country. That has proven to be the case as it has knocked off Seton Hall, Pittsburgh and Big East regular season champ Georgetown along the way.

The road team won both regular season meetings with Syracuse winning 70-68 at Louisville on January 19th, while the Cardinals won 58-53 at the Carrier Dome on March 2nd. As you can see, those two games were decided by a combined 7 points, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well. In fact, four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 5 points or less.

This play falls into a system that is 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on an underdog (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after 2 straight close wins by 3 points or less. Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas Big 12 Championship Side on Kansas State +5

The Kansas State Wildcats will be highly motivated for revenge Saturday as they square off against the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Championship Game. They have lost the first two regular season meetings to the Jayhawks, but I look for them to get payback with an upset victory in the title game. I'll just take the points for some insurance.

Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country that gets hardly any recognition. It is 27-6 on the season, and it is red hot right now. Kansas State has won eight of its last nine games overall, including double-digit victories over Texas (66-49) and Oklahoma State (68-57) in the first two games of the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the land. Time and time again it has escaped with close victories this season. The fact of the matter is that this Kansas team isn't nearly as dominant as some of the Kansas teams of year's past. That was evident when the Jayhawks lost three straight games during the regular season, including a 55-62 setback at TCU.

The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes entered the Big Ten Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. That has continued with a 71-50 victory over Nebraska in their opener. Ohio State has now going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall. No team in the country is playing better right now.

What's most impressive about this run by the Buckeyes is the fact that four of those six victories came against NCAA Tournament contenders. They beat Minnesota (71-45), Michigan State (68-60) and Illinois (68-55) at home. Their most impressive win during this stretch was a 67-58 road victory at Big Ten champ Indiana on March 5th.

Michigan State has just been so-so down the stretch, losing three of its last six games overall. Two of those three wins came against non-NCAA Tournament teams. They played in the late game last night, needing to erase a 30-20 halftime deficit to come back and beat Iowa 59-56. That comeback effort took a lot out of them, and now they'll have to play roughly 17 hours after that game went final.

Ohio State was the better team in the regular season meetings. It lost 56-59 at Michigan State in the first meeting, but came back with a 68-60 home victory in the second. This is personal for the Buckeyes, who lost 68-64 to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship last year. I look for it to get revenge in blowout fashion Saturday.

The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buckeyes. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Oky State/K-State Big 12 BAILOUT on Kansas State PK

The Kansas State Wildcats should be a heavy favorite over the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight. Instead, we're getting them at a pick 'em and I'll take full advantage. The co-Big 12 champs will make easy work of the Cowboys in this one folks.

Oklahoma State has been one of the most lucky teams in the country this season, pulling out more close wins than any other team that comes to mind. That was the case last night in a 74-72 victory over Baylor in their Big 12 Tournament opener. Their luck runs out tonight against a superior Wildcats team that is 26-6 on the season.

What I love most about Kansas State is the fact that it will be out for revenge from a 70-76 loss at Oklahoma State in its regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. The Wildcats will basically have home-court advantage with this game being played in Kansas City, Missouri. It all spells payback tonight folks.

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Kansas State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6

I've been fading the Miami Heat with a ton of success during their current 20-game winning streak. The more games they add onto this streak, the higher the expectations are from the betting public and oddsmakers. This has created excellent line value for their opponents.

There's no question that Miami is going to get everyone's best shot because they are the defending champs, and because of this streak. I believe Milwaukee's best shot is good enough to beat the Heat tonight.

In fact, Milwaukee has played Miami very tough this season. The home team has won each meeting with Miami prevailing 113-106 at home on November 21st, and Milwaukee winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. Off two straight losses, the Bucks are more hungry than every for a victory tonight.

The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Heat. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has actually won four of its last six meetings with Miami outright. The Heat are 13-28 ATS in road games after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996. Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Mavericks UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next three weeks, and it will have a hard time putting points on the board until he returns.

That has been the case in recent games for the Cavaliers as they've scored 97 or less points in five of their last six games overall. Dallas comes in tired as this will be the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. It will not be pushing the tempo on tired legs tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Dallas and Cleveland have combined to score 199 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings. That includes a 103-95 road victory by the Mavericks in their lone meeting this season on November 17th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-2 in Mavericks last 11 vs. NBA Central foes. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6

The Iowa State Cyclones will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game they have played all season. This is personal with the Kansas Jayhawks, as Iowa State was simply robbed of two victories over them during the regular season.

Both regular season meetings went to overtime. Iowa State lost the first at Kansas after a banked 3-pointer went in for the Jayhawks at the end of regulation to force overtime, a complete fluke. Then, the Cyclones blew a late double-digits lead at home and eventually lost in overtime. The Big 12 came out after the game and admitted the refs blew some calls late that cost Iowa State the victory.

I fully expect Iowa State to win outright tonight, but I'm just going to take the points for some added insurance. Kansas is clearly vulnerable after needing overtime to beat the Cyclones twice this year, and after losing 58-81 at Baylor in its regular season finale with the Big 12 title on the line. This isn't the same dominant Jayhawks team from year's past.

Iowa State has won and covered three straight games over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia heading into this one. This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (IOWA ST) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite.

The Cyclones are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 19-6 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 15-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pacers UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers. With Kobe Bryant out for Los Angeles, it is going to be lost offensively tonight. It will have to rely on its defense more to be competitive against the Pacers.

I look for the Lakers to slow the game down to a snail's pace and to run their offense through Dwight Howard to give themselves the best chance to pull off the upset. Getting the ball to Howard takes some time, which will shorten the game considerably.

These teams played in an absolute defensive battle in their first meeting. Indiana won at Los Angeles 79-77 on November 27th for 156 combined points. While I expect more combined points this time around, I do not foresee them coming closer to reaching 190 points.

The Lakers are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER against Central division opponents this season. They are combining with these Central opponents to average 184.9 points/game this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Syracuse/Georgetown ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +2

The Syracuse Orange are the best No. 5 seed of any conference tournament in the country. They have gotten by Seton Hall and Pittsburgh, and now they'll upset the No. 1 seed Georgetown Hoyas Friday night. This game is personal for the Orange.

Georgetown has won the first two meetings with Syracuse this season, both by double-digits. That includes a 61-39 home victory in their regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. There's no question that the Orange are going to be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season as they look for revenge.

At the same time, I fully expect the Hoyas to relax having already beating Syracuse twice by double-digits. They will think they just have to show up to win, and they won't be coming out with the same intensity as the Orange because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 91-47 (65.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SYRACUSE) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.

Syracuse is 20-6 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. The Orange are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Syracuse Friday.

15* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2

The Tennessee Volunteers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. My latest check has them as the final team in the "first four in" category in Joe Lunardi's bracket. That means a loss today to Alabama and they'll likely move down to the "first four out" list. They aren't going to chance that today folks.

Tennessee has been playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get itself in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes four road wins, and home victories over Kentucky (88-58), Florida (64-58) and Missouri (64-62). This is a dangerous team that nobody wants to face right now.

Alabama has been up and down all season. It closed the year with losses in three of its last five games to put itself clearly out of the NCAA Tournament discussion barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Its only wins during that stretch came at home against Auburn and Georgia, and it even needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Bulldogs in its season finale.

The Vols are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Mavs/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued as an 8-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the Mavericks in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'll only take the points for some added insurance.

San Antonio is clearly having problems without Tony Parker. That's evidence by the fact that it has lost two out of its last three in blowout fashion to non-playoff teams in Portland (106-136) and Minnesota (83-107). Now, both Tim Duncan (knee) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) are both questionable heading into this contest with the Mavs.

Don't look now, but Dallas is just 2.5 game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It has won four straight games coming into this contest with the Spurs, including three road victories. Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season right now, but somehow it continues to getting overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public. It is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have already lost twice to San Antonio this season. In fact, they have lost four straight in this series dating back to last year. There's no question that they want revenge tonight folks and I fully expect them to get it against the hobbled Spurs.

Dallas is 51-26 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 23-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -2

The Arkansas Razorbacks represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 SEC Tournament. There won't be a better wagering opportunity than this one folks. I look for the Razorbacks to roll over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the opening round of the conference tourney Thursday.

Arkansas needs this win to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble, and only a deep run in the SEC Tournament will get them in. Vanderbilt is just 14-16 on the season and it has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings with Arkansas winning 56-33 at home on January 12th, and Vanderbilt winning 67-49 at home on February 9th. However, the Razorbacks were in a huge letdown spot heading into their second meeting after beating then-No. 1 Florida 80-69 in their previous game. It was only human nature for them to have such a letdown following such a big win.

Vanderbilt is clearly overvalued due to winning four of its final five games to close out the season. However, all four of those victories came against SEC bottom feeders in Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia. Kevin Stallings is 30-51 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Vanderbilt.

Mike Anderson is 11-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are winning 69.5 to 61.6 in this spot, or by an average of 7.9 points/game. Bet Arkansas Thursday.

20* Big Ten Opening Round ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -5.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, they are the biggest sleeper in this tourney and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win a few games in it. It starts Thursday with a blowout victory over Nebraska.

The Boilermakers won two of their final three games while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in the process. What's most impressive about that is the fact that all three of those teams are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. They won 69-56 at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog, vs. Minnesota 89-73 as a 3-point dog, and lost vs. Michigan 75-80 as a 6.5-point dog.

After playing such tough competition to close out the regular season, the Boilermakers are clearly battle-tested. It will be like playing a high school team when they get to face lowly Nebraska in the opening round. The Huskers are just 14-17 overall, including 5-13 in Big Ten play.

Purdue won 65-56 at Nebraska on January 16th in their lone meeting of the regular season as a 2-point favorite. In fact, the Boilermakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS vs. Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big 12 last year. All three victories have come by 9, 18 and 18 points.

The Boilermakers are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Boilermakers today. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament over the Dayton Flyers. Butler won at Dayton 79-73 in their lone regular season meeting on January 12th. The Flyers (17-13) have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers in the rematch.

Butler (24-7) isn't a complete lock to get into the NCAA Tournament, and it doesn't want to lose this game to give the committee any reason to keep it out of the Big Dance. This team doesn't take games off under the head coaching of Brad Stevens, either.

Stevens is 24-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Butler. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.

Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 10.2 points/game. Roll with Butler Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +2.5

The Syracuse Orange should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round of the Big East Tournament today. In my opinion, Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in the country in all of these conference tournaments. This team is undervalued due to its poor finish to the season.

Sure, Syracuse lost four of its final five games to close out the regular season. However, those four losses came to Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette, which are the three teams in the Big East that finished with the best records.

Pittsburgh won each of its final four games to close out the regular season. A closer look shows that those four victories were unimpressive as all four came against mediocre Big East teams in St. Johns, South Florida, Villanova and DePaul. However, the Panthers are getting respect because of this finish, but as you can see it's unwarranted.

The Orange are going to be out for revenge from a 55-65 loss at Pittsburgh on February 2nd in their lone regular season meeting. Jim Boeheim is 21-9 ATS a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of Syracuse. He gets his teams to play at their highest level at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Panthers have been overvalued after a few dominant performances in a row, which is the case here. The Orange are the better team and that will show on the court today. Take Syracuse Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -1

This is a classic regular season finale rematch spot that I'm going to take advantage of. Boston College beat Georgia Tech 74-72 on March 9th in the regular season finale for both teams. Now, playing each other less than a week later, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets to get revenge on a neutral court this time around.

This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (GEORGIA TECH) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season.

Georgia Tech played very well down the stretch, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall. That includes a 71-69 road victory on March 6th over ACC regular season champ Miami as a 13-point underdog, and a 78-68 home victory over possible NCAA Tournament contender Maryland on February 27th.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off back-to-back embarrassing road losses to Oklahoma City (79-91) and to Charlotte (74-100). I look for the Celtics to put forth one of their best efforts of the season when they host the Toronto Raptors Wednesday.

Paul Pierce did not play against the Bobcats last night as Doc Rivers decided to give him a day off for rest. Pierce will return tonight and will give the team a big lift. Meanwhile, the Raptors are expected to be without their best player in Rudy Gay (back) as he is listed as doubtful with a back injury.

Boston is 22-9 at home this season, while Toronto is just 9-23 on the road. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being a Boston road victory (99-95) in their most recent meeting on February 6th.

The Celtics have won nine straight home meetings with the Raptors all by 6 points or more. This is a perfect 9-0 system backing Boston which dates back to the 2008 season. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hawks UNDER 203.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks are going to be fatigued heading into tonight's game. Each will be playing the second of a back-to-back as the Hawks lost at Miami last night, while the Lakers won at Orlando last night. The tempo will be kept at a snail's pace because of the fatigue.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together as it is. The Lakers and Hawks have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings dating back to 2010. They have combined to average just 183.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Atlanta's last 8 games overall. Not counting overtime, it has combined with each of its last eight opponents for 203 or fewer points at the end of regulation. The Lakers are playing much better defensive of late, limiting the Bulls to 81 points and the Magic to 97 in their last two contests coming in.

Atlanta is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. I'm seeing an average of 186.7 points/game in this spot. The Hawks are 18-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average of 180.3 points/game in this spot. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +9

The Miami Heat are way overvalued as a 9-point road favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have won 19 straight games, which has the betting public all over them. As a result, their numbers are going to be inflated until they lose a game again. That could very easily happen tonight.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams since February 23rd, so they are very familiar with one another. Miami won both meetings with a 114-90 road victory on the 23rd, and a 102-93 home win on March 8th. There's no question that the 76ers want revenge, while the Heat will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they have beaten twice already within the last month.

Philadelphia is playing much better of late as it beat Brooklyn 106-97 at home on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog. While the 76ers have had a day of rest to get ready for Miami, the Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Hawks last night.

The 76ers are 16-5 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -4.5

The Colorado Buffaloes get the nod Wednesday in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament as they take on the Oregon State Beavers. Colorado is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament so it will not be lacking any motivation tonight with its tournament life on the the line.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Buffaloes is the fact that they lost 58-64 at home to Oregon State in their season finale. Now, playing just four days later, I look for the Buffaloes to get revenge in blowout fashion. This is an Oregon State team that is just 14-17 on the season and had lost five straight before that win over Colorado.

Oregon State is 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Colorado is 9-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season. It is coming back to win by an average of 12.7 points/game in this spot. Bet the Buffaloes Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE DAY on Syracuse -12.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this Big East Tournament highly motivated for a victory after the way they closed out their season. It will take out its frustration on Seton Hall, which it beat by 11 points on the road on February 16th by a final of 76-65 in their lone meeting during the regular season.

Syracuse has lost four of its last five games to drop to 23-8 on the season. All four of those losses came against the top three teams in the Big East in Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette. After such a tough stretch to close out the year, there's no question the Orange are going to be battle-tested. It will seem like they're playing a high school team in the Pirates today.

The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Seton Hall is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 neutral site games. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Syracuse is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Syracuse Wednesday.

15* DePaul/Rutgers Big East BAILOUT on Rutgers -3

This one is as easy as it gets folks. The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the worst teams in the entire country and they have zero confidence heading into the Big East Tournament. That's because they come in having lost 15 of their last 16 games overall.

Sure, that one win was against Rutgers at home by a final of 75-69 in their first and only meeting of the regular season. However, that places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode here.

While Rutgers has lost five of its last seven games overall, four of those losses came by single-digits to the likes of DePaul, Villanova, Providence and Marquette. The other was a 13-point loss at Big East champ Georgetown. This team is clearly playing better than DePaul heading into the Big East Tournament.

The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Rutgers is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. DePaul is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights. Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +10

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 18-game winning streak heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks. That has been evident in recent games during this streak as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves in the eyes of the public and thus the oddsmakers.

Off a huge win over Indiana by a final of 105-91 on Sunday, the Heat are in a big letdown spot here. They had lost the previous two meetings this season with Indiana, so they wanted that one pretty badly. They won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to beat a solid Atlanta team by double-digits tonight.

Meanwhile, the Hawks not only come in motivated to put an end to Miami's winning streak, they also want to bounce back following losses in five of their last six games overall with four coming to playoff contenders. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so they'll certainly be ready to go. Plus, Atlanta wants revenge from two earlier losses to Miami this season by finals of 92-101 on December 10th and 90-103 on February 20th after blowing a fourth quarter lead.

Miami is 5-17 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is actually coming back to win in this spot 92.9 to 91.4 on average. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

This is an excellent spot to fade the Brooklyn Nets who are overvalued due to winning three of their last four games overall. Two of those victories came against the Wizards and Bobcats, while the other was a victory over an Atlanta team that was clearly looking ahead to tonight's game against Miami.

My biggest reason for fading Brooklyn tonight is the fact that it is in the toughest situation it can be in. The Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. They started showing signs of wearing down last night, falling 97-106 at Philadelphia despite coming in as a 6.5-point favorite.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. It continues to give max effort every night despite its record, which was evident in a 98-96 home victory over Portland on Sunday. The Hornets want revenge from a 97-101 home loss to Brooklyn on February 26th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting it considering how tired the Nets will be tonight.

The Hornets are 38-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Nets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit home underdog to the Boston Celtics tonight. Sure, Charlotte has gone 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games overall, but as a result the betting public is completely off of them. The books can't set this number high enough to get the public on them.

The Celtics come in overvalued due to going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are coming off a 79-91 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday, which puts them in a hangover situation here. Off such a big loss to a great team, they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte comes in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so it will be ready to go tonight. The Bobcats have proven they can play with the Celtics as each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 12 points or less with Charlotte winning three times. That includes a 94-91 home victory on February 11th in their most recent meeting this season. The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Boston is just 12-19 SU & 12-17-2 ATS in all road games this year. The Celtics are 8-19 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 2-12 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 11-24 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavaliers UNDER 191

The books have clearly set the bar too high in this contest between the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in this contest. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next 3-4 weeks, and until he returns the Cavs are going to struggle offensively.

Washington has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 95.1 points/game overall this season, including 90.4 points/game in its last five games. However, the Wizards are scoring a mere 91.7 points/game this season, including a woeful 86.4 points/game on the road.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the Wizards and Cavaliers. In fact, each of the last four meetings have seen 187 or fewer points. They have combined to average 179.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game with the Orlando Magic way overvalued due to their recent run. Los Angeles has won eight of its last ten games overall to get to 33-31 on the season and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The betting public has flocked to them, providing us with ample value to back the Magic tonight.

Los Angeles has a way of always playing to its competition. Only three of its eight wins during this run have come against teams with winning records. The Lakers had to come from behind to beat both the Hornets and Raptors in two of their last three games. They are just 11-20 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road this season with just five of those wins coming by more than 7 points.

Orlando has gotten healthy here of late and it is playing better basketball because of it. It has won two of its last four games with a 105-102 victory at New Orleans, and a 99-9-1 triumph at home over Philadelphia. It also lost 96-97 at Miami as a 15.5-point underdog after a last-second layup by Lebron James.

This team is fully capable of playing with the Lakers, and it showed that by winning in Los Angeles 113-103 as a 13.5-point dog on December 2nd in their first meeting of the season. In fact, the Magic have now won four of their last five meetings with the Lakers, including three straight home meetings. The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Los Angeles is 1-12 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot by 7.7 points/game on average. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. Los Angeles is 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* USF/Seton Hall Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK

Remember, the South Florida Bulls made the NCAA Tournament last year due to a hot finish to the season. They returned several players from that team this year. While an NCAA Tournament appearance is highly unlikely in 2013, this team comes into the Big East Tournament playing its best basketball of the season.

South Florida has won two of its last three games with its only loss coming at Cincinnati in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog. It beat DePaul 83-73 at home before destroying a very good Connecticut team 65-51 at home as well. This team is certainly feeling good about itself heading into this showdown with the Pirates.

Seton Hall has lost 11 of its last 12 games overall with its only victory coming by a single point at home over Villanova. While the Bulls are hot entering the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are certainly ice cold and lacking confidence. I believe you will see that play out on the court tonight as the Bulls roll and get revenge from their 47-55 loss at Seton Hall in their lone meeting of the season on January 23rd.

South Florida is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. It is beating these teams 70.8 to 59.3, or by an average of 11.5 points/game. Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. It is losing in this spot 58.3 to 68.2, or by an average of 9.9 points/game. The Bulls are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with South Florida Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors have certainly been struggling of late. They have lost 12 of their last 17 games overall to fall to 35-29 on the season after a torrid start. However, their recent struggles are the reason I really believe this team is way undervalued right now as only a 3-point home favorite over New York.

Not only will the Warriors be motivated to get back on track, they'll also want payback from a 105-109 loss at New York on February 27th in their first meeting of the season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting revenge considering the Knicks have played their last three games without Carmelo Anthony (knee), and he's questionable to return tonight.

Also, Amare Stoudemire (knee) has been pronounced out for the next 4-6 weeks. Golden State is 20-9 at home this season, so it certainly has a solid home-court advantage this year. It won its last home meeting with New York by a final of 92-78.

The Knicks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Suns OVER 209.5

I look for an absolute shootout tonight in Phoenix as the Suns host the high-scoring Denver Nuggets. Denver is one of the top scoring teams in the league at 105.8 points/game. However, the Nuggets give up 104.3 points/game defensively, so I look for the Suns to put up a big number as well.

Denver's biggest reason for being so efficient offensively is its ability to get in the paint at will. It is one of the top scoring teams in the league in the paint. That's a big factor here considering the Suns will be playing without two of their best post players in Marcin Gortat and Jermaine O'Neal. The Nuggets have scored 104 or more points in nine straight games.

Phoenix has been forced to play small ball, which hurts its defense, but helps its offense. That was evident in a 107-105 home victory over the Houston Rockets last time out on Saturday, and a 112-121 loss at Sacramento the night before on Friday.

This has already been a high-scoring series in recent meetings, and I look for that to be the case again tonight. Phoenix beat Denver 110-100 at home in their first meeting of the season on November 12th for 210 combined points. Denver beat Phoenix 118-107 on the road in their final meeting of last season for 225 combined points.

Denver is 13-2 to the OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Nuggets are 9-1 to the OVER in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 games overall. The OVER is 21-8 in Nuggets last 29 road games. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight as they meet for a third time this season. With Tony Parker out for the Spurs, their offense simply isn't going to be as dynamic as it was before he got hurt.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have combined for 206 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, including 200 and 170 points in their two meetings this season. With the Thunder tired and playing their 4th game in 5 days, and the Spurs without Parker, I look for the final combined score of this one to easily stay under 208 with room to spare.

This play falls into a system that is 42-11 (79.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 105 points or more this season. I'm seeing an average of 187.3 points/game in this spot for the Spurs and their opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat UNDER 189.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest. This is a huge Eastern Conference showdown between two of the best teams in the conference. I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively, which will keep the final combined score UNDER 190.

Indiana matches up really well with Miami. That's why it has beaten the Heat in both meetings this season, limiting them to 77 and 89 points, respectively. Paul George and Lance Stephenson combine to guard Lebron James and Dwayne Wade as well as another other team in the league, which is why Indiana has shut them down this season.

This play falls into a system that is 70-31 (69.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

The UNDER is 18-6 in Heat last 24 Sunday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Pacers last 10 road games. Indiana is 43-26 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -8

According to Joe Lunardi's bracketology, the Virginia Cavaliers are the first team listed in the "First Four Out" category. That means this is an extremely important game for them, and as a result I look for them to roll at home today over the Maryland Terrapins.

While Virginia has a ton to play for, Maryland comes in deflated after giving away its chances of making the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks. The Terrapins have lost four of their last seven with ugly road losses to Georgia Tech (68-78) and Boston College (58-69), as well as double-digit home losses to UNC (68-79) and Virginia (80-69).

After already beating the Terrapins by 11 on the road, I have no doubt the Cavaliers can win the rematch by 9-plus at home this time around. That's because Virginia is 17-0 SU & 13-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points/game. Maryland is just 3-6 in true road games this year.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Virginia is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Sunday.

15* Indiana/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan Money Line -125

The Michigan Wolverines can clinch a share of the Big Ten title with a win over the Indiana Hoosiers at home Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance at home this season and to get revenge on the Hoosiers from a 73-81 road loss in their first meeting this season.

Michigan is a perfect 17-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.1 points/game at home this year. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings dating back to 2009.

The Wolverines are 22-7 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997. The Hoosiers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take Michigan on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on North Carolina -1.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels want revenge from a 68-73 loss at Duke as a 10.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on February 9th. I look for them to have their payback at home this time around as these Tobacco Road rivals square off Saturday night on ESPN at 9:00 EST.

North Carolina has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Duke. It has gone a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six games since with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. The Tar Heels won road games at Georgia Tech (70-58), Clemson (68-59), and Maryland (79-68), while also beating Virginia (93-81), NC State (76-65) and Florida State (77-58) at home during this stretch.

The Tar Heels are a sensational 14-1 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.0 points/game at home this year. Their only home loss came to current ACC leader Miami, which obviously looking back really isn't that bad of a defeat.

Duke is only 4-4 on the road this season. It has road losses to NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90), Maryland (81-83) and Virginia (68-73). This is only a mediocre Blue Devils team when they get away from Cameron Indoor.

Duke is 0-6 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival this season. UNC is 8-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. UNC is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

15* Kansas/Baylor ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Kansas -3

At 14-3 in the Big 12 this season, the Kansas Jayhawks are tied with the Kansas State Wildcats atop the conference standings. They can clinch at least a share of their 9th straight Big 12 title with a win over the Baylor Bears Saturday. These Jayhawk players DO NOT want to break tradition, so they'll be laying it all on the line not only for themselves, but every former Jayhawk that helped keep this streak going.

Kansas has won seven straight while going 7-0 ATS in the process to put itself in this position. While the Jayhawks have been rolling and come in with a ton of confidence, the Bears have lost five of their last six with their only victory coming 65-62 over lowly West Virginia.

This poor run to close out the season has put Baylor on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and not even a win over Kansas would put it on the right side of the bubble. As a result, I look for the Bears to come out flat today and for the more hungry Jayhawks to run away with this one.

Baylor is 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Baylor winning by 14, 20, 10, 26, 20 and 21 points. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Colorado -8

While the Colorado Buffaloes (20-9) are coming off a big 76-52 home victory over the Oregon Ducks on Thursday night, they are still squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. There's no question they realize this, and as a result they won't allow themselves to overlook lowly Oregon State Saturday.

Colorado is playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple months. It has won nine of its last 12 games overall with two of its three losses coming by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points/game.

Oregon State (13-17) has clearly packed it in. It has lost five straight games, including a 61-72 loss at lowly Utah on Thursday to really prove that it doesn't want to be playing right now. Four of its five losses during this skid have come by double-digits, so the Beavers haven't even been competitive. Don't expect them to start Saturday.

Colorado is 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. It is winning in this spot by 14.7 points/game. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Colorado has won its last three home meetings with Oregon State by 22, 26 and 15 points. Bet Colorado Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +1

The Tennessee Volunteers represent my strongest college basketball release for the entire 2012-13 season Saturday when they host the Missouri Tigers. This is a must-win game for Tennessee as it is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. It won't be lacking any motivation today because of it.

Tennessee has played its best basketball of the season over the past month just to put itself in this position, and I look for it to continue today. The Vols have won seven of their last eight to get to 18-11 on the season. That includes four road wins and three impressive home victories over Kentucky (88-58), LSU (82-72) and Florida (64-58).

The Vols are now 12-3 at home this season. A big reason I'm backing them is the fact that Missouri is a terrible road team. The Tigers are just 2-7 in true road games this season with their only wins coming against SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State and South Carolina, who are a combined 7-27 in conference play this season.

Tennessee is 23-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Vols are 10-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Vols are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -12.5

The Miami Hurricanes are undervalued Saturday as only a 12.5-point favorite over the lowly Clemson Tigers. That's because they are coming off an ugly last-second home loss to Georgia Tech by a final of 69-71 on Wednesday as a 13-point favorite. A closer look shows why they lost that game.

Miami was coming off a heartbreaking 76-79 loss at Duke, so it was in a hangover situation. Also, the Hurricanes knew in the back of their minds that they could afford to lose that game to the Yellow Jackets with this contest against Clemson looming. They are still one game ahead of Duke in the ACC title race, so a win today will mean they'll be crowned conference champs.

The Hurricanes certainly won't be lacking any motivation with the ACC title on the line. They'll also be hungry to send their seniors out with one final home victory on Senior Day. This is a senior-led team as Kenny Kadji (13.3 PPG), Durand Scott (13.2), Trey McKinney Jones (9.1), Reggie Johnson (8.0) and Julian Gamble (6.6) will all be playing their final home game Saturday. These are five of Miami's top six scorers!

Losers of five straight and eight of their last nine overall, the Clemson Tigers have clearly given up on their season. That includes ugly losses in their last two games with a 61-69 setback at Virginia Tech, and a 61-68 home loss to Boston College. This team simply does not want to be playing in this game today.

Miami is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 14.2 points/game in this spot. The Hurricanes are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Saturday games. Clemson is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Saturday game. Take Miami Saturday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa -12.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are certainly one of the last few teams out if the season were to end today, so they need this win over Nebraska, and maybe a win in the Big Ten Tournament to get in. I look for them to take care of step No. 1 in blowout fashion today.

Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 19-11 because it has so many close losses this season. That includes a 60-64 loss at Nebraska on February 23rd in their first meeting of the season in which the Hawkeyes blew a 41-25 halftime lead. That also puts Iowa in revenge mode today.

Iowa is 15-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.3 points/game. Its only home losses came to Indian and Michigan State by a combined 7 points! This team quietly has one of the best home-court advantages in the league, which makes them continuously undervalued at home.

Nebraska is coming off a big 53-51 home victory over Minnesota as an 8-point underdog. That win really made their season, and now they are in a huge letdown spot here. That's especially the case considering they've already beaten Iowa this season, so they won't be interested at all in this game.

In fact, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 22.0 points/game. The Huskers are 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 18.5 points/game. Iowa is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, winning by 15.0 points/game in this situation. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -8

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They know they cannot afford to lose this game against Texas A&M Saturday if they want any chance of getting in. That's why I look for the Crimson Tide to put forth an inspired effort as they continue their dominance at home this season.

Arkansas is a sensational 17-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 points/game. Its home wins include Kentucky (73-60), Missouri (73-71), Florida (80-69) and Tennessee (73-60), so it has beaten four of the top teams in the conference, including three by double-digits.

Texas A&M has watched its NCAA Tournament hopes slip away by losing three of their last four games overall, including an ugly 57-68 home loss to LSU on Wednesday. That defeat showed that the Aggies had packed it in, and I fully expect them to lay down for the Razorbacks in what will be one of the biggest blowouts on the board Saturday.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by 10.9 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 14.6 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are squarely on the bubble and need this win to get into the NCAA Tournament. A win and they're almost certainly in, while a loss would leave a lot of work to do in the Big 12 Tournament. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Iowa State (20-10) is the definition of a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has several close, heartbreaking losses this season, including a pair of overtime losses to Kansas in which the Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer at the end of regulation, and the refs blew foul calls down the stretch of the other defeat.

West Virginia is simply one of the worst teams in the Big 12 at 13-17 on the season. It has given up on its season for a while now, losers of five straight coming into this one. Four of those five losses came by double-digits, including a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 setback at Kansas.

The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts this season. Iowa State is 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Cyclones. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +5.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are deadlocked in a tie with rival Kansas for the best record in the Big 12. Both teams are 14-3, and the Wildcats would love nothing more than to clinch at least a share of the conference title. They would win it outright with a win and a Jayhawk loss at Baylor later in the day.

While Kansas State certainly won't be lacking any motivation today, you have to question Oklahoma State's mental state of mind coming in. The Cowboys lost 76-87 at Iowa State on Wednesday to drop to 12-5 in the Big 12, a full two games back of both Kansas and Kansas State. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat knowing that they cannot win at least a share of the Big 12 title now.

Oklahoma State is 2-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. The Wildcats are 7-2 SU in true road games this season. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 24-38 record, but arguably not team in the league has suffered as many close losses this season as Toronto.

The Lakers always have a way of playing down to their competition. That was the case again at New Orleans on Wednesday as they had to rally from 25 points down to come back and win 108-102. They closed that game on a 20-0 run to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. Off such an emotional win, look for the Lakers to suffer a letdown tonight against these Raptors.

Toronto has played Los Angeles very tough in recent meetings. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, including a 108-103 home victory for Toronto on January 20th in their first meeting this season. Look for this game to go right down to the wire again tonight and to be decided by 7 or less either way. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Lakers are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs come into this game way overvalued due to their dominance in their first two games without star point guard Tony Parker. They beat lowly Detroit 114-75 and a banged up Chicago team 101-83 at home in their last two contests.

Teams can play without stars for a few games, but over time it starts to take its toll. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Spurs are up against a desperate Portland Trail Blazers team that is fighting to stay alive in the Western Conference playoff race at 28-32 on the season.

Portland has played well of late, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has gone 3-3 SU during this span, with all three losses coming by 6 points or less to the Lakers (107-111), Nuggets (109-111) and Grizzlies (85-91), which are three of the best teams in the West.

The Blazers have actually had the Spurs' number in recent years. Portland has won five of the last eight meetings in this series, including a 98-90 home victory as a 7-point underdog in their most recent meeting on December 13th. This team obviously matches up well with San Antonio, and it clearly isn't afraid of the Spurs.

This play falls into a system that is 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. The Blazers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Portland Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 16-game winning streak. I faded them with success in a 97-96 home victory over the Orlando Magic as a 15.5-point underdog on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again tonight as a double-digit favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers.

When you win so many games in a row it's only human nature to get a little bit lazy and think that it's easy. That's why the Heat nearly got upset by the Magic on Wednesday, and it's why I would not be surprised one bit to see Philadelphia upset them tonight.

The 76ers are in revenge mode following a 90-114 home loss to Miami on February 23rd just two weeks ago. The 76ers were really banged up at that point, but Thaddeus Young, who is arguably their best player, has returned since. Philly will be motivated for revenge and to put an end to their current 3-game skid.

This play falls into a system that is 67-28 (70.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia is 53-30 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The 76ers are 14-4 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 4-16 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

This is the perfect opportunity to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league against the spread all season, but I have no problem backing them tonight considering how tough a spot this is for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days tonight. After beating the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks n its last three contests, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder. Plus, they will be fatigued, so they won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to win this game by 15-plus points tonight.

Because Charlotte is the worst team in the league against the spread, that means the betting public will be fading them from here on out. That provides us with ample value to back the Bobcats at a great price tonight. They will be out for revenge for an embarrassing 69-114 loss at Oklahoma City in their first meeting of the season on November 26th as well.

This play falls into a system that is 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to be on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Also, Oklahoma City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. Take the Bobcats Friday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing solid value as a 4.5-point underdog tonight against the Denver Nuggets in a game that will go right down to the wire. I fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Denver comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak. Four of those six wins came against teams with losing records. Now, the Nuggets will meet their match tonight in the Clippers. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games overall with its only losses coming to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, which are top two teams in the Western Conference.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Clippers considering they have won six of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011, which includes a 2-1 road mark. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Denver. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

This lay falls into a system that is 72-28 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (LA CLIPPERS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.

The Clippers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.