Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards.

The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today.  But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively.  They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time.  The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace.

The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East.  The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -135

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight including the opener 4-2 in Game 1 of this series to the Mariners.  I expect them to bounce back in a big way due to their massive advantage on the mound tonight.

Shota Imanaga has been as advertised this season coming over from Japan.  He is 10 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.40 WHIP while pitching 10 shutout innings and allowing only 4 base runners in 12 K's.  He will shut down the light-hitting Mariners, who are hitting .197 and scoring 2.6 runs per game at home this season.

Emerson Hancock has been roughed up for the Mariners.  He is 1-1 with an 11.42 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in two starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  The Cubs will rough him up tonight as well.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 9

The Dodgers are hitting .268 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season, including .285 and 6.6 runs per game at home.  The Padres are hitting .256 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season, including .268 and 6.2 runs per game on the road.  This total of 9 is simply too low for a game involving the Padres and Dodgers' potent lineups.

Matt Waldron is 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight starts and two relief appearances in his career in the big leagues.  He has already allowed 10 homers in 50 2/3 innings.  Gavin Stone has not been good for the Dodgers, allowing 8 earned runs and 12 base runners in 8 innings in two starts this season.  Both bullpens are struggling as well with the Dodgers having a 4.60 ERA and the Padres a 4.55 ERA thus far.

There are expected to be 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight in Los Angeles that will help aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Padres and Dodgers with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are hitting .310 and scoring 6.7 runs per game this season behind arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .341 and scoring 8.1 runs per game against right-handed starters as well.  They should get to righty Max Meyer, who will be making just his 5th career start today for the Marlins.

The OVER is 9-2-1 in Braves 12 games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 games.  The Braves will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER ticket, but I also expect the Marlins to have some success against Chris Sale and this shaky Atlanta bullpen.  The Marlins have a 5.97 ERA as a bullpen and the Braves have a 4.24 ERA.

The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Miami with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Brewers/Orioles Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The forecast looks good for a high-scoring affair between the Brewers and Orioles today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 24 MPH winds blowing out to right.  Both offenses should have their way in this one.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for.  They are hitting .283 and scoring 6.3 runs per game this season, including .300 and 7.0 runs per game on the road.  They have now scored 12, 8, 9, 7 and 11 runs in their last five games coming in, and the OVER is 7-1 in Brewers last eight games overall.

The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only going to keep getting better as they call up guys throughout the season.  They have scored 7 or more runs in three of their last four games overall.

DL Hall is 4-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his three seasons in the big leagues.  He has allowed 21 earned runs in 42 1/3 innings.  Dean Kremer is 22-20 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his five seasons in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Reds/White Sox Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Cincinnati Reds.  They have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall including 6.2 runs per game on the road.  They will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER ticket.

That happened yesterday with the Reds winning 11-1 over the White Sox.  I expect Chicago to have much more success at the plate today.  They will be up against Nick Lodolo, who will be making his first start since May 6th of last season due to injury.  Lodolo went 2-1 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in seven starts last season, allowing 10 homers in 34 1/3 innings.  He will be on a pitch count today.

Garrett Crochet is getting a lot of hype for the White Sox, but he has already allowed 2 homers in 12 innings in his two starts this season.  The Reds will be able to get to him enough to get this one OVER this short 7.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* Padres/Dodgers NL West Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Los Angeles tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Dodgers are hitting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, including .304 and 6.5 runs per game at home.  The Padres are hitting .257 and scoring 5.3 runs per game this season, including .277 and 5.7 runs per game on the road.  This total of 8 is simply too low for a game involving the Padres and Dodgers' potent lineups.

Michael Kings has already allowed 11 walks in 14 2/3 innings this season for the Padres and has control issues.  The Padres already rocked Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first start this season where he allowed 5 earned runs in one inning of a 15-11 loss to San Diego.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-109)

The Chicago White Sox are a mess.  They are 2-10 this season and scoring just 2.4 runs per game.  They are without three of their best hitters right now to boot due to injury in Robert Jr., Jimenez and Moncada.

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory coming off two consecutive losses.  The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they have a big advantage on the mound over the White Sox today.

Andrew Abbott is 8-7 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 23 career starts for the Reds.  He'll be opposed by Chris Flexen, who is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings. Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.

The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 20 MPH tonight in Chicago which will aid the Reds in scoring runs and winning this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Friday.

15* Interleague Friday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/White Sox OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 50's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Chris Flexen is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.  The Reds may cover this OVER on their own off Flexen.

Despite some injuries in their lineup, the White Sox have managed to score 6 and 7 runs in their last two games against the Guardians coming into this one.  I think they'll do enough at the plate against Andrew Abbott and this rough Cincinnati bullpen to contribute to us cashing this OVER.  

The OVER is 4-1 in Reds last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team with a suspect rotation with the loss of Spencer Strider to a season-ending injury and one of the best lineups in baseball.  The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.6 runs per game this season while going 8-2-1 OVER in their 11 games this season.

The Miami Marlins are allowing 5.9 runs per game and the Braves at likely to hang a big number on them.  But the Marlins did put up 5 runs against the Yankees in their last game and I expect them to have some success at the plate tonight as well.

Max Fried has been dreadful this season.  He went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four spring training starts, and it has carried over into the regular season.  Fried has posted an 18.00 ear and 3.20 WHIP in two starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 16 base runners in 5 innings.

Trevor Rogers has bene awful the last three years.  He went 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 23 starts in 2022.  He only made four starts in 2023 with a 4.00 ERA.  He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Braves and Marlins with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  The last three meetings in Miami saw 18, 16 and 15 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Royals/Mets Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the upper-50's with 22 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at Citi Field in New York tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Royals are hot at the plate scoring 13 and 11 runs in their last two games coming in.  The Mets are hot as well scoring a total of 29 runs in their three games at Atlanta last series.  Both teams should stay hot at the dish today with the favorable forecast for hitters.

Michael Wache has been solid the last two years but he did get roughed up by the Orioles before shutting down the lowly White Sox.  Luis Severino has not been sharp allowing 8 runs, 4 earned, and 16 base runners in 10 innings this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wacha has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +112

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 9-4 this season and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  They just put up 13 and 11 runs in back-to-back wins over the Astros and have now won seven consecutive games.

They will make it 8 in a row against the Mets, who are 5-7 this season.  The Royals have a big advantage on the mound today with Michael Wacha over Luis Severino.  Wacha went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts in 2022 for the Red Sox and 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 2023 for the Padres.  It has been more of the same for the Royals as Wacha is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in two starts this season.

Luis Severino went 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 18 starts for the Yankees last season.  Severino is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in two starts this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Royals Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Orioles OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 21 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Baltimore tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for.  They are hitting .275 and scoring 5.9 runs per game this season, including .290 and 6.3 runs per game on the road.  They have now scored 12, 8, 9 and 7 runs in their last four games coming in, and the OVER is 6-1 in Brewers last seven games overall.

The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only going to keep getting better as they call up guys throughout the season.  They have scored 9, 7 and 7 runs in their last three games overall.

Tyler Wells has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts.  Freddy Peralta has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his last four.  I expect both teams to score 4-plus runs tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Phillies OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 18 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Philadelphia tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Bailey Falter is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 10-14 with a 4.80 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He went 2-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season, and he is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings.

Cristopher Sanchez is 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Falter's last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +123

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 8-4 this season and scoring 4.9 runs per game.  They are 7-2 at home and scoring 5.3 runs per game.

The Houston Astros are 4-9 this season and scoring just 4.0 runs per game.  The Astros are 2-4 on the road and scoring 3.7 runs per game.  Not only has this Kansas City offense been better, but I think the Royals have a big advantage on the mound today.

Hunter Brown went 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 29 starts last season.  Brown has been terrible to start 2024, allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings for a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP through two starts.  Brown allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Royals last season.

Brady Singer is off to a tremendous start for the Royals this season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts, allowing just on earned run and 7 base runners in 13 1/3 innings with 14 K's.  The Royals are 5-0 in their last five meetings and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with the Astros with all seven wins as underdogs.  Wrong team favored again.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Defensive intensity will be high between the Nuggets and Timberwolves tonight.  1st place in the West is on the line with both teams tied at 55-24 this season with three games to go.  And these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as it is with the Timberwolves ranking 1st in defensive rating and the Nuggets 8th.

Both teams prefer to play slow as well with the Nuggets ranking 26th in pace and the Timberwolves 21st.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be tired as a result, which will also help slow down the tempo.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be the 4th meeting this season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  They have combined for 201, 227 and 209 points in their first three meetings.  I think this one stays well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 tonight for all these reasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Reds OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as it is with one of the best lineups in baseball and an awful rotation and bullpen.  The Reds are 8-3 OVER in their 11 games htis season while scoring 5.5 runs per game overall including 5.9 runs per game at home.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a much better lineup than they get credit for.  They are hitting .283 and scoring 5.8 runs per game this season, including .307 and 6.2 runs per game on the road.  The first two meetings in this series saw 18 and 14 combined runs, and it will be more of the same today.

Wade Miley is returning from a shoulder injury and will be making his first start of the season.  I don't expect him to go very deep in this one.  Hunter Greene is a loose cannon for the Reds with good K's but a lot of walks.  He is 9-20 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 48 starts in the big leagues with 43 homers and 101 walks in 248 1/3 innings.  Greene has allowed 4 homers and 9 walks in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Milwaukee.  Bet the OVER In this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Bucks UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 3rd in defensive rating.  The Milwaukee Bucks have trended UNDER since Doc Rivers took over.  Now they will be without Giannis after he suffered a calf injury last night in a 104-91 home win over the Celtics.

Defensive intensity should be high for this one with the Bucks sitting two games ahead of the Magic for 2nd place in the East, and these teams meeting twice in their final three games to decide it.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, so I don't look for either to be running much, and this one will be played in the half court.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets OVER 222

The Toronto Raptors are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games, and 228 or more in six of them.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in six of those seven games.

Neither the Nets nor the Raptors will be interested in playing defense tonight.  The Raptors get Immanuel Quickley back tonight making them even more of an OVER team.  The Nets are expected to have Cam Johnson in the lineup after sitting out last game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Raptors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-6 in their last seven games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in five of the six losses, and 3 in the other.  They are hitting .181 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .278 and scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, including .298 and 6.4 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and the advantage on the mound today.

Bobby Miller went 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts last season for the Dodgers.  He shut down the Cardinals in his first start, but the Cubs did get to him in his second start.  Now he takes a big step down in class here against the light-hitting Twins.

Chris Paddack hasn't been healthy since 2021.  He posted a 5.07 ERA in 2021, a 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2022 and a 5.40 ERA in 5 innings in 2023.  Paddack allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings to the Brewers in his first start this season.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following five consecutive losses by a total of 8 runs.  They will take out their frustration with a blowout road win over the lowly Colorado Rockies.

Merrill Kelly is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts in 2023 after going 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 33 starts in 2022.

Kelly is off to another great start this season, going 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in two starts allowing 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Kelly has owned the Rockies, allowing 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 19 2/3 innings with a whopping 31 K's in his last three starts against them.

We'll gladly fade Cal Quantrill, who went 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 19 starts for the Guardians last season.  Quantrill is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 9 innings.  The Diamondbacks will hang a big number on him and their bullpen (6.80 ERA) today.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 213.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Bulls and Knicks in five days.  The Bulls won 108-100 in that first meeting on April 5th for just 208 combined points.  It will be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Both the Knicks and Bulls are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  In fact, the Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace, while the Bulls rank 29th.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 213 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in all five losses.  They are hitting .181 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .279 and scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, including .303 and 6.5 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and and an even bigger advantage on the mound tonight.

Ace Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers.  Glasnow went 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 21 starts last season for the Rays with 162 K's in 120 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 17 innings.

Louie Varland went 4-3 with a 4.63 ERA while allowing 16 homers in 68 innings for the Twins last season.  He allowed 3 earned runs, a homer and 8 base runners in 4 innings in his first start this season against the Brewers.  It won't go well for him against this potent Dodgers lineup tonight, especially with double-digit winds expected to be blowing out to center.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Raptors OVER 240.5

The Toronto Raptors are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 239 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in five of those six games.

The Indiana Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and will name their number against Toronto.  I think the Raptors keep pace well enough to get us this OVER tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 252 or more combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Yankees OVER 8

The New York Yankees are loaded this season offensively scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 6.0 runs per game at home.  Their offense has carried them to this 9-2 start.  The Marlins have allowed 6.5 runs per game this season, but their offense has been respectable in this 1-10 start.

I'm taking the OVER 8 today largely due to the fact that both of these starting pitchers are dreadful.  AJ Puk is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.83 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 innings for the Marlins.  

Carlos Rodon went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts for the Yankees last season.  He has a 1.76 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  Both pitchers are putting a lot of runners on base and both have been wild.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* Purdue/UConn CBB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 145.5

The Championship Game will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the title game plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

UConn is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Huskies last six games overall and 9-1 in their last 10 games.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including 58 or fewer in five of their last six.  They will shut down Purdue as well.

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense largely due to having Zach Edey inside to protect the rim.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Purdue's last three games overall combining for 113 points with NC State, 138 with Tennessee and 148 with Gonzaga.  They shot 57.1% and Gonzaga shot 49.2% in that game and it still saw just 148 combined points with the UNDER cashing.  They have held four of their five opponents to 38.7% shooting or worse in the NCAA Tournament.

Neither team will be getting easy looks inside with Edey and the best big man defender in the country in Donovan Klingan protecting the rim.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with UConn ranking 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue 211th.  This is going to be a classic defensive battle in a game featuring the two best big men in the country.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -129

The Minnesota Twins are struggling right now without 3B Royce Lewis.  He is hitting .313 with a .369 OBP and a .564 SLG entering his 3rd season in Minnesota.  The Twins are 1-4 in their last five games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in all four losses.  They are hitting .191 and scoring 3.0 runs per game on the season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .279 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season, including .306 and 6.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They have a big advantage at the plate and I also give them the edge on the mound today.

James Paxton has been good when healthy and he is healthy to open the season.  Paxton pitched 5 shutout innings in a 8-3 victory over the Giants in his first start this season.  He is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight career starts against the Twins.

Bailey Ober was rocked for 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 1 1/3 innings of a 11-0 loss at Kansas City in his first start this season.  It won't get any easier for him against the Dodgers tonight.  The Dodgers are 26-6 in their last 32 games off a loss by 4 runs or more.  The Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 games against a team that wins more than 62% of their games.  Bet the Dodgers Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Reds OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great lineup and a suspect rotation and bullpen.  They also play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The weather looks good in Cincinnati today with almost no wind and temp's in the 70's.

Both the Reds and Brewers are hitting it well this season.  The Reds are scoring 5.1 runs per game and the Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game.  Both starting pitchers have struggled against the opposition in this head-to-head series as well.

Graham Ashcraft is 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.  Aaron Ashby is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his lone career start against Cincinnati.  He will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers.  He is 5-12 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in two seasons in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Yankees OVER 8

The New York Yankees are absolutely loaded offensively this season with Soto and Judge and a deep lineup.  They just put up 9 runs and 8 runs in beating the Blue Jays in their last two games and are heating up at the plate.

The Marlins are 1-9 and allowing 6.5 runs per game this season.  They have scored 5.3 runs per game on the road and just hung 10 runs on the Cardinals yesterday.  Light winds will be blowing out to left field tonight at Yankee Stadium with temps in the 60's, so scoring conditions are ripe for runs.

This 8-run total has been set too low for these two starting pitchers up against these two offenses.  Nestor Cortes has been a major disappointment for the Yankees, posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings.  

Jesus Luzardo is 0-1 with a 4.36 ERA while allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 1/3 innings to the Angels and Pirates at home.  He takes a big step up in class here.  Luzardo allowed 7 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 9-4 loss to the Yankees in his lone career start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 225

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot to play for tonight.  Defensive intensity will be high as a result.  The Timberwolves trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Lakers have climbed their way into the 8th spot and trail the 7th place Pelicans by 0.5 games and the Suns by 1.5 games for 6th.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 21st in pace and 1st in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 97-87 loss to the Suns for just 184 combined points.  They are even more of an UNDER team without Karl-Anthony Towns right now.

The Lakers beat the Cavaliers 116-97 for just 213 combined points at home yesterday.  They aren't going to be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back today, and the Timberwolves won't allow them either.  There are also questions as to who will play for the Lakers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Minnesota is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Nets UNDER 222

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and would be 13-2 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Kings are coming off yet another low-scoring 101-100 los sat Boston.  It will be more of the same today against the Brooklyn Nets, who beat the Pistons 113-103 yesterday for just 216 combined points.  Now Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable to play for the Nets today.  The Nets rank 24th in pace and 22nd in offensive rating this season.

Brooklyn is 28-12 UNDER in its last 40 home games when revenging a road loss.  Sacramento is 49-31 UNDER in its last 80 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Magic UNDER 212.5

The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  The Magic rank 27th in pace while the Bulls rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which benefits the UNDER.  The Magic rank 3rd in defensive rating as well.

The Bulls could be without both Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both suffered ankle injuries in their 108-100 win over the Knicks last time out.  That would make them go with a bigger lineup and not having White on offense would be a huge blow.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 200, 190 and 191 combined points in three of the four.  Orlando is 10-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 227.5

Both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley returned from injury a few games back.  The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team when they have their two best guards in the lineup.  They play faster, play worse defense and play much better offensively with these two on the court.  The Raptors are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 228 or more combined points in four of those five.

The Washington Wizards have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have been filling it up offensively of late while knocking off some quality teams.  They have scored at least 107 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

I like betting OVERS in games between two teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season.  These seem to be more relaxed games with no defense being played and all focus on the offensive end.  This contest fits the bill.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 219

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to playing without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon.  They really struggle to score on offense, but they are full of hungry young players that have been getting after it defensively.

The Blazers are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall combining for 207 points with the Magic, 175 points with the Hornets and 210 points with the Wizards.  They won't be able to get much offensively against a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating.

The Celtics have gone for 196, 222 and 201 points in three of their last four games.  They don't have much to play for right now so they aren't looking to run it up or push the tempo.  They could let the Blazers hang around as a result, but I like the UNDER much better.  Both Tatum and Brown are questionable for this one as well.

Portland is 20-9 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The Blazers are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 227

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 214, 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 13 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Rockets and Mavericks in eight days.  The Mavericks won 125-107 in Houston on March 31st.  Dallas shot 24-of-47 (51.1%) from 3 and that's not going to happen again.

Plus, Dallas could be without Luka Doncic again after he missed their last game against the Warriors.  But I like the UNDER regardless.  This is an early 3:40 EST start time with it being a 2:40 body clock game for these teams.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and it usually takes a few quarters for them to wake up.

Dallas is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 games against teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Cubs OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball hitting .291 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.

The Cubs are 5-3 OVER in their eight games this season behind one of the most underrated lineups in baseball.  They are hitting .270 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  This total is too low for a game involving the Cubs and Dodgers right now.

Gavin Stone and Shota Imanaga are getting too much respect in this game as starting pitchers.  Stone has a 5.40 ERA allowing 3 earned runs in 5 innings to the Cardinals.  Imanaga shut out the Rockies in 6 scoreless innings.  Both the Rockies and Cardinals have two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for both starting pitchers today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -120

The Baltimore Orioles want revenge from a 5-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 11 innings yesterday.  They are 5-3 this season and haven't lost two in a row yet.  This was a resilient team last year, and that will be the case again this season with one of the best lineups and bullpens in baseball.

Dean Kremer held the Royals to 4 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his first start this season.  He went 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts last season after going 8-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2022.  Kremer pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his lone career start against Pittsburgh.

Marco Gonzales went 4-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 10 starts for the Mariners this season.  He allowed one earned run and 6 base runners in 5 innings to the Nationals in his first start this season.  The Nationals have one of the worst lineups in baseball.  Gonzales is 1-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles.

The Orioles are 15-2 in Kremer's last 17 starts as a favorite.  Baltimore is 15-3 in Kremer's last 18 starts against a team with a winning record.  Like Gonzales, this start for the Pirates is fools' gold.  Bet the Orioles Sunday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* Alabama/UConn Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 161.5

The Final 4 will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is going to be a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the Final 4 plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

UConn is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Huskies last five games overall and 8-1 in their last nine games.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including 58 or fewer in five consecutive games.  They will shut down this high-powered Alabama attack.

What has allowed Alabama to get this far is that they have finally started to play some defense in this tournament.  But they won't be able to get anything at the rim against UConn.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama is 26-10 UNDER in its last 36 games as a double-digit underdog.  UConn is 19-9 UNDER against a team with a winning record this season.  The Huskies will control the tempo and slow this one down to a snail's pace as they rank 315th in adjusted tempo.  They also don't allow anything in transition, which Alabama relies heavily on.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Braves OVER 9

Both the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting the cover off the ball in the early going.  The Braves are hitting .302 and scoring 7.0 runs per game this season, including .368 and 10.0 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Diamondbacks are hitting .282 and scoring 6.4 runs per game, including .320 and 8.0 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Lefty Max Fried goes for the Braves and was roughed up in his first outing this seaosn, allowing 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning of a 12-4 win at Philadelphia.  Brandon Pfaadt is a good young talent, but I think he is consistently overvalued.  He is 4-9 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 101 innings in the big leagues.

These teams combined for 11 runs yesterday.  It will be more of the same today.  The Braves are 4-1-1 OVER in their six games this season with 9 or more combined runs in five of the six.  The Diamondbacks are 5-3 OVER in their eight games with 10 or more combined runs in five of the eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NC State/Purdue Final 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 146.5

The Final 4 will be played inside a spacious Football Stadium at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.  This is going to be a poor shooting background, and it's going to take time for these players to get used to shooting in it.  Couple that with the nerves of playing in the Final 4 plus max defensive intensity from both teams, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring, defensive battle.

NC State has gone UNDER the total in its last two games and it would be three straight if not for OT against Oakland.  That game was tied 66-66 at the end of regulation for just 132 combined points.  The Wolfpack went on to beat Marquette 67-58 for 125 combined points and Duke 76-64 for 140 combined points.  As you can see, all three stayed well UNDER this 146.5-point total.

Purdue is one of the best defensive teams in the country ranking 17th in adjusted defense.  The Boilermakers will have an answer for NC State to slow them down, especially DJ Burns inside.  Zach Edey is going to make life very difficult on Burns, and the Wolfpack are going to have to become even more of a jump shooting team.  They won't get open looks because the don't have to double-team Burns with Edey on him.

Both teams have had a lot of time to prepare for this game after last playing on Sunday.  That extra time and preparation will also benefit the defenses and the UNDER.  Purdue is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  NC State is 6-0 UNDER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds -113

I'll back the Cincinnati Reds to bounce back from a 3-2 loss to the New York Mets yesterday.  They struggled with runners in scoring position leaving a whopping 12 runners on base.  I don't see that happening again.

The Reds have the advantage on the mound today with Nick Martinez over Luis Severino.  Severino allowed 6 earned runs and 12 hits in 5 innings to the Brewers in his first start this season, and I expect this potent Cincinnati lineup to crush him as well.

Severino's teams are 2-12 (-10.7 units) in his last 14 starts with a money line of +125 to -125.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Cubs OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-0-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball hitting .295 and scoring 6.4 runs per game this season.

The Cubs are 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season behind one of the most underrated lineups in baseball.  They are hitting .279 and scoring 7.0 runs per game this season.  This total is too low for a game involving the Cubs and Dodgers right now.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings.  He'll be opposed by Jordan Wicks, who allowed 5 runs, 2 earned and 8 base runners in 4 innings of a 9-5 win over the Rangers in his first start this season.  Both bullpens have been suspect with the Cubs having a 5.13 ERA and the Dodgers a 4.84 ERA.

The Dodgers are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 road games against a team that wins more than 62% of their games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -130

The Baltimore Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball this season.  The Orioles have arguably the best lineup in the American League.  We are getting them at a discount today considering they also have an advantage on the mound over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Tyler Wells was great last season and solid in his first stat, holding the Angels to 3 runs and 5 base runners in 6 innings.  Wells is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Pittsburgh, which came last season when he pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only 3 base runners with 8 K's in a 2-0 victory.

Bailey Falter is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Falter went 2-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season.  He allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 4 innings to the lowly Marlins in his first start this season.  He'll get rocked by this potent Baltimore lineup.

Baltimore is 17-2 in its last 19 games as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 226

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall with 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 12 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 12 games.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 100.8 points per game in their last six games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They just played on Tuesday with the Warriors winning 104-100 at home for just 204 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Warriors are 22-11 UNDER in their last 33 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  I also don't expect either team to try and run very much since both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -119

The Chicago Bulls have a massive rest advantage tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Bulls have had the last three days off and will be feeling fresh and ready to go tonight.  They also have a lot to play for trying to lock down the 9th seed in the East and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in.  They lead the Hawks by just 0.5 games for that spot.

The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-109 home win over the short-handed Kings last night.  Four of five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

Plays on home favorites (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

15* DBacks/Braves NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .304 and scoring 7.2 runs per game this season.  They will do the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER 9 ticket.

The Braves should crush Tommy Henry, who allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings to the Rockies at home in his first start this season in a 9-4 defeat.  Henry is now 0-4 with a 7.23 ERA in his last four starts dating back to last season, allowing 15 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.

Spencer Strider is one of the best starters in baseball, but the Diamondbacks have had great success against him.  Strider is 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA in three career starts against Arizona, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket with 13 MPH winds projected to be blowing out to left-center in Atlanta tonight.  Arizona is hitting .290 and scoring 6.6 runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Nationals OVER 8

I love betting OVERS in games involving Pat Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.

Corbin is off to another rough start this season allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-6 victory over the Reds in his opening start.  Corbin is 0-6 with an 8.20 ERA in his last eight starts against the Phillies, allowing 34 earned runs and 14 homers in 37 1/3 innings.

I also think Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is known for getting off to slow starts to the season and that is the case again this season.  Nola allowed 7 earned runs, 13 base runners and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-4 loss to the Braves in his first start this season.

Nola is 10-1 OVER in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Reds OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts OVER team and they play inside one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball and a suspect rotation.  They are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season, including 3-0 OVER in their three home games that have all seen 10 or more combined runs.

Both of these starting pitchers will get rocked with a favorable forecast that calls for 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.  Jose Quintana is well past his prime and allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to the Brewers in his first start this season.  Hunter Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to the Reds in his first start this season.

New York is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 road games after scoring 3 runs or less in two consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds have a big advantage over the New York Mets tonight.  The Reds had yesterday off while the Mets just played a double-header against the Tigers yesterday.  The Reds should be much bigger favorites given this rest advantage.

I think the starting pitching matchup between Jose Quintana and Hunter Greene is pretty even, but the Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball while the Mets have one of the worst.  The Reds are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall including 6.7 runs per game at home.  The Mets are hitting .173 and scoring 2.2 runs per game this season during their dreadful 1-5 start.  Bet the Reds Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Kings/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall and would be 12-1 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in eight of their last 10 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts UNDER team all season.  They are 24-14 UNDER at home this season.  They rank 8th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last (30th) in pace, which is the reason for being a dead nuts UNDER team.

New York beat Sacramento 98-91 on the road on March 16th in their first meeting this season for just 189 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here tonight with the team that gets to 100 likely to win this one.  Defensive intensity will be high with the Kings and Knicks both having a lot to play for given their current standings in the playoffs.

Sacramento is 27-13 UNDER in its last 40 games as a road underdog.  New York is 11-2 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Indiana State/Seton Hall ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -150

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first four games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites, and Utah 100-90 as 4.5-point favorites.

I was part of the Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245 against Cincinnati.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it is being played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they have a massive following there.  I was also on them against Utah, and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons in the NIT Championship Game.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Seton Hall had the luxury of playing their first three games at home in the NIT against St. Joe's, North Texas and UNLV.  Then they got to play Georgia, which came out of nowhere to make the NIT semifinals after getting a late invite due to so many teams opting out.  So this will be a big step up in class for the Pirates, who couldn't have had an easier path to get here.  This will feel like a de facto road game for them for the first time this entire tournament.

The Pirates only have one day to prepare for Indiana State, which ranks 12th in the country in adjusted offense and is one of the most difficult teams to defend because everyone on the court can shoot the 3-pointer.  That's a huge advantage for the Sycamores as well.  Seton Hall is 1-8 ATS in its last eight games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in road games against good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Timberwolves OVER 215

This is a very low total for a game involving the Toronto Raptors right now.  The Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks, 255 points with the 76ers and 239 points with the Lakers in their last three games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But they just got Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.  Plus, Gary Trent Jr. was on a tear before sitting out last night, and he is back tonight.

The Timberwolves are likely to take the Raptors lightly tonight and I don't expect their defensive intensity to be as high as it normally it.  I do expect the Timberwolves to hang a big number on the Raptors, who have allowed 145, 135 and 128 points in their last three games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They rank 25th in defensive rating and have been even worse since losing Barnes and Poeltl.

Toronto is 12-2 OVER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -155

The Oakland A's have 13 errors and 14 runs scored during their 1-5 start this season.  They are hitting .195 and scoring 2.5 runs per game this season.  The Red Sox should be closer to -200 favorites today against an A's team that is in the running for worst team in baseball.

Boston ace Nick Pivetta gets the ball and has been absolutely dominant dating back to the end of last season.  Pivetta has allowed one run and only 10 base runners in 20 innings with 27 K's in his last three starts.  He struck out 10 in 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Mariners in his opening start this season.  Pivetta has never lost to the A's, going 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing just one earned run in 22 innings.

Ross Stripling is a solid starter in this league, but he will be no match for Pivetta today.  Stripling allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings to the Guardians in his first start this season.  He had an 8.38 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings in spring training.  He has posted a 4.68 ERA in 11 career starts against the Red Sox.

Oakland is 3-31 (-26.3 Units) in its last 34 games against a team with a good bullpen with a 3.45 ERA or better.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/A's UNDER 8.5

The Oakland A's have 13 errors and 14 runs scored during their 1-5 start this season.  They are hitting .195 and scoring 2.5 runs per game this season.  They will get shut down again this afternoon inside their spacious, pitcher-friendly park in Oakland.

Boston ace Nick Pivetta gets the ball and has been absolutely dominant dating back to the end of last season.  Pivetta has allowed one run and only 10 base runners in 20 innings with 27 K's in his last three starts.  He struck out 10 in 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Mariners in his opening start this season.  Pivetta has never lost to the A's, going 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing just one earned run in 22 innings.

Ross Stripling will hold the Red Sox in check enough to keep this one UNDER the 8.5-run total.  Stripling is 38-44 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his big league career.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs in 26 innings in his last five starts against Boston for a 2.08 ERA over this stretch.

Stripling is 27-12 UNDER in his 39 career starts with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs.  Stripling is 28-13 UNDER in day game starts in his career.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Giants/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a dead nuts OVER team with arguably the best lineup in baseball but a suspect rotation to open the season.  They are scoring 6.7 runs per game through seven games this season and will do the heavy lifting tonight in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The San Francisco Giants are one of the biggest sleepers in baseball this season.  They are 5-0 OVER in their five games this season combining for 10 runs or more in all five games.  The Giants are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season.

Logan Webb is a quality start for the Giants but this total is too low with him on the mound.  Webb is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 18 earned runs in 28 innings.  The Giants should get to Alex Vesia and the Dodgers, who will make this a bullpen game tonight.

This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Dodgers. Plus, there are expected to be 8 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight and temps in the 60's, so the weather is ripe for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Warriors UNDER 233

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games overall with 232, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 10 games.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 92, 93 and 97 points in three of their last four games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They are trying to make the play-in and fighting hard for it with four consecutive victories.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  The Warriors are 21-10 UNDER in their last 31 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 230 or higher (Dallas) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 57-21 (73.1%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -138

The Oakland A's have more errors than runs scored through five games this season.  That's all you need to know about how dreadful this Oakland team is.  The A's have committed 13 errors while only scoring 10 runs in their five games this season while getting shut out twice.

The Red Sox should be closer to -200 favorites today.  Bryan Bello earned their opening day start and delivered allowing 2 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-4 victory over the Mariners on the road.  Bello went 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 28 starts last season.  He posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings in spring training.

Alex Wood went 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 97 2/3 innings last season with just 74 K's.  Wood had a 4.40 ERA in spring training while allowing 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  He got roughed up in his opening start this season, allowing 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Guardians in a 8-0 loss.

Boston is 16-4 in its last 20 games after scoring 9 runs or more.  The Red Sox won 9-0 in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +140

The Toronto Blue Jays will be pissed off tonight after getting no-hit by Blanco and the Astros last night.  I think they come back with a big effort, and I actually believe they have the advantage on the mound and should not be underdogs as a result.

Jose Berrios is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He went 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  Berrios went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in spring training, allowing 2 earned runs in 13 innings.  He opened the season holding the Rays to 2 earned runs in 6 innings of an 8-2 victory.  Amazingly, Berrios has held the Astros to 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts against them.  He is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in his last six starts against Houston, allowing 10 earned runs in 35 2/3 innings.

Framber Valdez is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He was terrible in the 2H last year and has now allowed 3 earned runs or more in 13 of his last 18 starts dating back to last season.  He posted a 7.71 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in spring training.  It carried over to his opener as he allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to the Yankees.  Valdez hates facing the Blue Jays, going 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 innings.

Toronto is 20-4 in its last 24 games after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span.  The Blue Jays are 9-1 in their last 10 road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span.  Houston is 15-31 (-24.5 Units) in its last 46 home games with a money line of +100 to -150.  The Astros are 7-13 (-14.9 Units) in Valdez's last 20 home starts.  Bet the Blue Jays Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the few dead nuts OVER teams here down the stretch.  They are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 15 of their last 22 games overall.  That includes 227 or more combined points in 18 of those 22 games.

The Toronto Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks and 255 points with the 76ers in their last two games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But now they get Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury tonight, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.

The Lakers are 20-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season and we're seeing 244 combing points per game in these 25 games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four, including 263 combined points at the end of regulation in their lone meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Utah/Indiana State ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -140

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first three games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites.

I was part of that Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following there.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Utah got to play at home in their first three NIT games beating UC-Irvine, Iowa and VCU.  The Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But it has been a different story for them on the highway.  The Utes are just 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS in road/neutral games this season.  They are allowing 77.5 points per game in these road/neutral games and their poor defense will get tested by a Indiana State team that ranks 17th in adjusted offense while scoring 84.6 points per game this season.

Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Utes are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road/neutral games against a team with a winning record.  Utah is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road/neutral games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Giants/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a dead nuts OVER team with arguably the best lineup in baseball but a suspect rotation to open the season.  They are scoring 6.5 runs per game through six games this season and will do the heavy lifting tonight in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The San Francisco Giants are one of the biggest sleepers in baseball this season.  They are 4-0 OVER in their four games this season combining for 10 runs or more in all four games with the Padres over the weekend.  The Giants are scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.

Rookie Keaton Winn gets the ball for the Giants as their 5th starter this season.  I don't expect it to go well for him tonight, and the Giants have a 9.00 bullpen ERA thus far this season.  James Paxton went 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP last season in 19 starts.  Paxton posted a 5.14 ERA in spring training.  The Dodgers have a 5.00 bullpen ERA this season.

This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Dodgers. Plus, there are expected to be 13 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight and temps in the 60's, so the weather is ripe for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 216

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons are struggling offensively right now due to injuries.  The Grizzlies scored 88 points last time out against the Magic and are without eight players right now including Desmond Bane.

The Pistons have scored 103 or fewer points in nine consecutive games now while going 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They are without Thompson, Grimes, Fontecchio, Steward, Gibson and Umude with both Cunningham and Sasser questionable as well.

Detroit is 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Memphis is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Pistons are 9-0 UNDER in home games against poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Phillies OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball, but one of the worst rotations and bullpens.  The Philadelphia Phillies also have an elite lineup but the back half of their rotation is suspect, and their bullpen is off to yet another brutal start this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in Cincinnati's three games this season with 10 or more combined runs in all three.  The OVER is 3-0 in Phillies three games this season with 9 or more combined runs in all three.  The Phillies have an 11.57 bullpen ERA and the Reds have a 7.15 bullpen ERA.

Andrew Abbott got off to a great start for the Reds last season but came back down to reality in the 2nd half.  That carried over into spring training as Abbott posted a 7.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 8 innings while allowing 7 earned runs and 15 base runners.  Cristopher Sanchez wasn't any better, posting an 8.59 ERA and 2.45 WHIP in spring training while allowing 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jazz/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games overall and would be 11-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive games now.  

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Making matters worse is that they just lost Malik Monk for 4-6 weeks.  He is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Jazz are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state as well.  They are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, plus John Collins is questionable.  The Jazz have been held to 111 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 UNDER during this stretch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Cardinals/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball with the addition of Ohtani.  They are raking already scoring 6.8 runs per game in their five games this season.  They beat the Cardinals 7-1 in Game 1 and 6-3 in Game 2 before falling 6-5 in extra inning yesterday.  They stranded bases loaded and no outs in the 1st inning and 1st and 3rd with one out in the 2nd.  That poor start cost them, and they'll be out for revenge tonight on National TV.

The St. Louis Cardinals have arguably the worst rotation in baseball as well as an underwhelming lineup  That's evident by the fact that they started Miles Mikolas on Opening Day, Zack Thompson is their No. 2 starter and Lance Lynn is their No. 3 starter.  Now they go to No. 4 Steven Matz, who posted a 8.16 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in spring training while allowing 13 earned runs, 5 homers and 25 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.

Gavin Stone could be one of the best young starters in baseball.  He looks ready for this opportunity after posting a 3.21 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in spring training, allowing just 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 14 innings in spring training.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Rockets UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall with 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in eight of those nine games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Houston Rockets are fighting for a playoff spot as they trail the Warriors by just 1.5 games for the final play-in spot.  They have gone for 202 combined points with the Blazers, 224 combined points with the Thunder at the end of regulation, and 201 combined points with the Jazz in their last three games overall.  They are really picking it up on the defensive end of late.

Dallas is 10-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Purdue Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

Tennessee and Purdue played in the Maui Invitational.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams know each other, and I expect this to be another defensive battle similar to what it was in the Maui Invitational.

Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67 for 138 combined points back in November.  This despite these teams combining for 50 made free throws on 78 attempts.  I have to think the refs will let them play more here with a trip to the Final 4 on the line and it won't be another free throw fest.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country.  Tennessee ranks 3rd in adjusted defensive while Purdue ranks 19th.  Purdue shot 57.1% against Gonzaga who also shot 49.2% last game and that game still stayed UNDER the total with 148 combined points.  Neither team will exceed 50% shooting in this one.

Tennessee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  Purdue is 7-0 UNDER in road/neutral games after three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  There won't be many turnovers in this game, which means there won't be many fast break opportunities.  Bet the UNDER in this Elite 8 game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -140

We have one of the best teams in baseball in the Baltimore Orioles up against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels today.  The Orioles should be at least -200 favorites in this game today.

Baltimore has one of the best young rosters in baseball and their lineup is absolutely loaded.  That was on display in their 11-3 win over the Angels in the opener followed by their 13-4 victory in Game 2.  The Angels have Mike Trout and not much else, plus a terrible rotation to boot.

I like Tyler Wells over Reid Detmers today.  Wells went 7-6 with a 3.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts and five relief appearances last season.  Wells went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in spring training, allowing just 2 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the Orioles Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball with the addition of Ohtani.  They are raking already scoring 7.2 runs per game in their four games this season, including a 7-1 victory over the Cardinals in Game 1 and a 6-3 victory in Game 2.  It will be more of the same in Game 3 tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed the richest contract of any pitcher in MLB history in the offseason.  That's how highly the Dodgers think of him.  I know he has been shaky in spring training and in his first start of the season against the Padres, but I expect him to be good enough today to win this game by multiple runs.

The St. Louis Cardinals have arguably the worst rotation in baseball as well as an underwhelming lineup  That's evident by the fact that they started Miles Mikolas on Opening Day, and Zack Thompson is their No. 2 starter.  Now No. 3 starter Lance Lynn takes the ball, and this is more of a fade of him than anything.

Lynn went 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He posted a 7.90 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in spring training allowing 12 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  The Dodgers are going to crush him today.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball with the addition of Ohtani.  They are raking already scoring 7.2 runs per game in their four games this season.  Now they take on a Cardinals team that has arguably the worst rotation in baseball.

That's evident by the fact that they started Miles Mikolas on Opening Day, and Zack Thompson is their No. 2 starter.  Now No. 3 starter Lance Lynn takes the ball, and this is more of a fade of him than anything. Lynn went 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He posted a 7.90 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in spring training allowing 12 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  The Dodgers are going to crush him today.

But I think the Cardinals will have some success at the plate against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed the richest contract of any pitcher in MLB history in the offseason.  He hasn't lived up to the hype.  Yamamoto posted a 8.38 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in spring training, then allowed 5 earned runs in one inning to the Padres in their opener for a 45.00 ERA.  He likely won't be that bad again, but the Cardinals will get to him enough to contribute to getting this OVER the total.  

There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Los Angeles tonight which will also help us.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 223.5

The Milwaukee Bucks would be 3-0 UNDER in their last three games if not going to double-OT against the Lakers.  They combined with the Thunder for 211 points, combined with the Lakers for 202 points at the end of regulation, and combined with the Pelicans for 207 points in their last three games.

Now the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight, making them even more of a dead nuts UNDER team.  But they get Patrick Beverly back from injury, and he is one of their defensive leaders and having him will be huge to try and slow down Dejounte Murray of the Hawks.

Murray's usage rate for the Hawks has gone through the roof since losing Trae Young.  They have 6 players out and Jalen Johnson is questionable.  The Hawks have had to rely a lot more on defense of late to be competitive.

Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games against a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games against teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/UConn UNDER 155.5

UConn is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Huskies rank 319th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight games overall with 143 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team, but the Fighting Illini won't be able to get out in transition against UConn.  Iowa State laid the blueprint holding the Fighting Illini in check in a 72-69 loss for 141 combined points in the Sweet 16.  It will be more of the same against UConn here.

UConn is 11-1 UNDER after scoring 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Reds OVER 9.5

Cincinnati plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball at Great American Ballpark.  Now there are expected to be nearly 20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center Saturday, making it a heaven for homers.

The Reds are a dead nuts OVER team with a terrible pitching staff and one of the most underrated lineups in baseball.  They should feast on Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last handful of years.  Corbin went 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  The left-hander posted a 5.51 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in spring training this season.

The Nationals have a lot of young talent in their lineup and should get to Hunter Greene and the Reds today.  Greene went 4-7 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 22 starts last season.  He posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in spring training this season, allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 walks in 15 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -155

We have one of the best teams in baseball in the Baltimore Orioles up against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels today.  The Orioles should be at least -200 favorites in this game tonight.

Baltimore has one of the best young rosters in baseball and their lineup is absolutely loaded.  That was on display in their 11-3 win over the Angels in the opener.  The Angels have Mike Trout and not much else, plus a terrible rotation to boot.

I'll take Grayson Rodriquez over Griffin Canning today.  Rodriquez held the Angels to 2 runs in 6 innings of a 6-3 victory in his final start against them last season.  Canning is 0-2 with a 9.23 ERA and 2.210 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles, allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 2/3 innings.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 230.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall with 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in seven of those eight games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games overall and would be 10-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Kings just played each other on Tuesday with Dallas winning 132-96 for 228 combined points.  Dallas shot 55.4% from the field including 22-of-39 (56.4%) from 3-point range and it still stayed UNDER the total.  It's safe to say the Mavericks won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Dallas is 9-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball with the addition of Ohtani.  They are raking already scoring 7.7 runs per game in their three games this season, including a 7-1 victory over the Cardinals in their home opener.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

Bobby Miller is 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 career starts.  He had a great spring training posting a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings while allowing just 4 earned runs.  I expect him to shut down this weak St. Louis lineup which is one of the worst in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals have arguably the worst rotation in baseball as well.  That's evident by the fact that they started Miles Mikolas on Opening Day, and Zack Thompson is their No. 2 starter.  Thompson went 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 66 1/3 innings last season.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.