Winning Sports Picks

15* Reds/Brewers NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 28-10 in their last 38 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 33 of their last 42 games, including 5 runs or more 29 times.  The OVER is 9-4 in Reds last 13 games overall with all nine overs seeing 11 or more combined runs.  The OVER is 6-1 in Brewers last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six overs.  This total is too low tonight folks.

Corbin Burnes is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 6-5 with a 4.00 ERA in 17 starts this season, 3-2 with a 4.27 ERA in eight home starts, and 1-1 with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts.  I also have a hard time seeing Andrew Abbott continuing to live up to the expectations he has created for himself in a small sample size of six starts for the Reds.

The OVER is 7-1 in Reds last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 16-7 in Reds last 23 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Cubs/Yankees Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The OVER is 6-2-1 in Yankees last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The Cubs are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 11 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  Simply put, the books have set this total too low tonight.

That's especially the case with gas can Jameson Taillon going for the Cubs.  He is 2-6 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.539 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who makes his first start of the season for the Yankees and will certainly be on a pitch count as he makes his way back from injury.

The OVER is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 interleague road games.  The OVER is 3-0-2 in Yankees last five home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Marlins OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins are both raking right now.  The Phillies have scored a total of 37 runs in their last five games overall, while the Marlins have scored a total of 25 runs in their last three games overall.

Sandy Alcantara has struggled all season for the Marlins at 3-7 with a 5.02 ERA in 17 starts.  One of those starts came against the Phillies where he allowed 9 earned runs in 4 innings of a 15-3 defeat. Zack Wheeler has struggled of late for the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.

The OVER is 7-0 in Marlins last seven Game 1's.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -123

The Philadelphia Phillies are hot right now going 22-7 in their last 29 games overall.  That includes a perfect 12-0 in their last 12 road games.  The Phillies have scored a total of 37 runs in their last five games overall.  They should be bigger road favorites over the Marlins tonight.

Sandy Alcantara has struggled all season for the Marlins at 3-7 with a 5.02 ERA in 17 starts.  One of those starts came against the Phillies where he allowed 9 earned runs in 4 innings of a 15-3 defeat.

Zack Wheeler is 7-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 17 starts for the Phillies this season.  Wheeler is 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 20 career starts against the Marlins as well.  Bet the Phillies Friday.

20* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Tigers OVER 9

Alek Manoah makes his return today after getting demoted to the minors.  Manoah is 1-7 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in 13 starts in the majors.  He is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA and 2.348 WHIP in the minors as well.  Manoah is also 0-1 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit.

Alex Faedo is 1-3 with 5.54 ERA in five starts this season for the Tigers with 6 HR allowed in 26 innings.  The Blue Jays have scored at least 4 runs in five consecutive games.  The Tigers have quietly been hot at the plate for a month, scoring at least 5 runs in 14 of their last 24 games overall.

The OVER is 6-0 in Tigers last six games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 12-3-1 in Tigers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in Tigers last 26 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague Friday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Rays OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in the majors right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 26 of their last 29 games overall.  They score 5.7 runs per game on the season and take on a Rays team that scores 5.5 runs per game on the year.

Charlie Morton is mediocre at best at 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Tyler Glasno is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.334 WHIP in seven starts for the Rays this season, including 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in his last three.

The OVER is 8-0 in Morton's last eight interleague starts.  The OVER is 14-3 in Rays games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Rays last 11 home games following three or more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -126

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off three consecutive losses. It's only the 4th time all season they have lost three in a row, and they have not lost four in a row once. They'll be highly motivated for a victory to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Mets today.

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.776 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-3 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in 11 starts this season while already allowing 12 homers in 53 innings. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Mets are 3-15 as road underdogs this season. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 after a game where they stranded 3 or fewer base runners this season. The Mets are 1-7 in their last eight Game 3's. Arizona is 14-3 in its last 17 games after losing the first two games of a series. Bet the Diamondbacks Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -134

The Texas Rangers have a big advantage on the mound today over the Boston Red Sox that should lead to an easy victory in their favor. They should be bigger road favorites in this game as a result.

Nathan Eovaldi is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 17 starts this season and among the Cy Young favorites. He'll be opposed by Kutter Crawford, who is 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA and 1.818 WHIP in three home starts. Bet the Rangers Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 29-12 in their last 41 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 32 of those 41 games, including 5 runs or more 28 times.  The OVER is 9-3 in Reds last 11 games overall with all nine overs seeing 11 or more combined runs.  The Washington Nationals have scored 4 runs or more in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Brandon Williamson has been an absolute gas can for the Reds this season. He is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in nine starts this season. He'll be opposed by Mackenzie Gore, who is 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Gore is 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.0975 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Cincinnati is 14-4 OVER after allowing 2 runs or less this season. The OVER is 16-6 in Reds last 22 road games. Washington is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 5.40 ERA or worse. The OVER is 5-0 in Reds last five road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Mets/Diamondbacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

I'll gladly fade both of these starting pitchers and back the OVER 9.5 runs today between the Mets and Diamondbacks.  Kodai Senga has been awful on the road this season, going 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in seven starts away from home for the Mets.

Tommy Henry has posted a 4.16 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Diamondbacks. The Mets have scored at least 4 runs in four consecutive games, including 8 runs in back-to-back games. The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season and have been great at the plate all year, which is a big reason for their turnaround.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Arizona. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Twins OVER 8.5

The Minnesota Twins have scored 8 runs or more in three of their last four games overall. The Kansas City Royals have scored at least 3 runs in six consecutive games with the OVER going 5-1 in those six games. These teams have combined for 12 runs in each of the first two meetings in this series, and it should be more of the same in Game 3 today.

Alec Marsh makes his second start of the season for the Royals. His first was a disaster as he allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings to the Dodgers. Pablo Lopez has been a disaster at home all season, going 2-2 with a 5.93 ERA in eight home starts while allowing 31 earned runs in 47 innings. Lopez allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings of an 8-6 win over the Royals in his last start against them on April 28th.

The OVER is 17-6 in Lopez's last 23 home starts. The OVER is 32-12 in Kansas City's last 44 games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or fewer runs per game. The OVER is 5-0 in Royals last five games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Royals last seven road games. The OVER is 41-20-5 in the last 66 meetings in Minnesota. The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Twins last seven home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Guardians OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball, especially at the plate. They have gone 17-2 in their last 19 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 15 of those 19 games. They will do the heavy lifting today in helping us cash this OVER 9.5 ticket against the Cleveland Guardians, who have scored at least 6 runs in three of their last four.

The Braves will feast on Cal Quantrill, who is 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 15.44 ERA and 2.316 WHIP in his last three starts. The Guardians should get to Mike Soroka, who is making his way back from injury and is 1-1 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 8-2 in Braves last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 28-12 in their last 40 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 31 of those 40 games, including 5 runs or more 27 times.  The OVER is 8-3 in Reds last 11 games overall with all eight overs seeing 12 or more combined runs.  The Washington Nationals have scored 4 runs or more in seven of their last nine games overall.

Graham Ashcraft is an absolute gas can for the Reds. He is 3-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Josiah Gray, who has been awful at home this season at 2-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in six home starts.

The OVER is 8-0 in Ashcraft's last eight starts with a total of 9.5 or higher. Washington is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 5.40 ERA or worse. The OVER is 15-6 in Reds last 21 road games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Diamondbacks OVER 9

I'll gladly fade both of these starting pitchers and back the OVER 9 runs today between the Mets and Diamondbacks. Kodai Senga has been awful on the road this season, going 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in seven starts away from home for the Mets.

Zach Davies has been awful everywhere, especially at home. Davies is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in six home starts. Davies is 3-3 with a 5.32 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets as well.

The OVER is 19-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 26 games following an off day. The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Arizona. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Rays OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies are raking right now scoring 4 runs or more in five of their last seven games overall including a combined 23 runs in their last two games. The Tampa Bay Rays have been raking all season scoring 5.6 runs per game including 5.9 runs per game at home. They have also scored 6 runs or more in three of their last four and a total of 30 runs in those four games.

Aaron Nola consistently gets too much respect from the books. Nola has a 4.51 ERA on the season and a 5.34 ERA on the road while allowing 11 homers in 60 2/3 innings away from home. Zach Eflin has solid numbers for the Rays but is due some regression.

The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last six games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last six home games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 20-7 in Rays last 27 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Yankees OVER 8.5

Two gas cans go for the Yankees and Orioles today and that should lead to 9-plus combined runs to cash this OVER 8.5 ticket. The Yankees are raking right now without Aaron Judge scoring a total of 38 runs in their last six games overall. The Orioles are scoring 5.2 runs per game on the road this season.

Kyle Gibson is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in his last three starts for the Orioles allowing 14 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Clarke Schmidt is 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 17 starts for the Yankees this season.

Gibson is 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Yankees and the OVER is 8-3 in those games. Schmidt is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles, both of which have come this season.

Baltimore is 10-2 OVER in divisional road games this season. The Orioles are 12-4 OVER in day road games this season. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Orioles last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Reds/Nationals NL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 27-12 in their last 39 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 30 of those 39 games, including 5 runs or more 26 times.  The OVER is 7-3 in Reds last 10 games overall with all seven overs seeing 12 or more combined runs.  The Washington Nationals have scored 4 runs or more in six of their last eight games overall.

Brett Kennedy is a spot starter for the Reds today who will be making his first start of the season. Pat Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past three seasons. Corbin is 5-9 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in 17 starts this season.

Cincinnati is 16-5 OVER in its last 21 games after allowing 2 runs or less. The OVER is 14-6 in Reds last 20 road games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Nationals OVER 10

The Cincinnati Reds are 26-12 in their last 38 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 30 of those 38 games, including 5 runs or more 26 times.  The OVER is 7-2 in Reds last nine games overall with all seven overs seeing 12 or more combined runs.  The Washington Nationals have scored 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket with temps in the 80's and 10 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to right-center.  Plus, these are two gas can starting pitchers going today for both teams.  Jake Irvin is 1-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Nationals, including 0-3 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in seven home starts.

Luke Weaver has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season for the Reds.  He is 1-2 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in 13 starts this season, allowing 50 earned runs and 14 homers in 64 2/3 innings.  Weaver has allowed 24 earned runs in 21 innings in his last five starts for a 10.29 ERA.  He is 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in three career starts against Washington as well.

Washington is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 5.40 ERA or worse.  The OVER is 8-2 in Reds last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Astros/Rangers AL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Texas Rangers have scored a total of 31 runs in their last five games and now rank 1st in average (.275) and 1st in scoring (5.99 runs per game) this season.  The Houston Astros have scored a total of 31 runs in their last four games and a total of 58 runs in their last nine games for an average of 6.4 runs per game. This total is too low for these two hot offenses.

Shawn Dubin will be making his first start of the season for the Astros. He'll be opposed by Andrew Heaney, who is 3-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in nine home starts this season, allowing 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 42 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 9-1 in Heaney's last 10 home starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs. The OVER is 16-6-6 in Rangers last 28 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Reds OVER 10.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 25-12 in their last 37 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 29 of those 37 games, including 5 runs or more 26 times.  They are raking right now.  They just combined with the Braves for 21, 13 and 13 runs in their three-game series last weekend.  They just combined for 13 and 18 runs with the Orioles in two of their three games last series.  And now they have combined for 12 and 17 runs with the Padres in the first two meetings in this series.

Simply put, books cannot set these totals high enough in Cincinnati games.  They haven't set this total high enough, either.  That's especially the case with the forecast calling for temps in the 80's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center inside hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The Padres haven't named a start yet but I like the OVER either way.  They are likely to go with Yu Darvish, who is 3-3 with a 6.14 ERA in 8 road starts this season.  Darvish is 1-2 with a 7.72 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.  Andrew Abbott has much better numbers than his peripherals and is due for some regression for Cincinnati.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Cincinnati. The OVER is 7-1 in Reds last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Red Sox and Blue Jays combined for 13 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today. This total of 8 has been set too low in a matchup between two of the most potent lineups in the American League.

Garrett Whitlock is 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in nine starts for the Red Sox this season. Kevin Gausman has solid numbers, but one of his worst starts of the season came against the Red Sox, who he has struggled against of late. Gausman allowed 8 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of an 11-5 loss to Boston on May 4th.

The OVER is 12-3 in Gausman's last 15 home starts vs. division opponents. The OVER is 11-2 in Toronto's 13 Sunday games this season. Boston is 10-2 OVER vs. AL starting pitchers with a 3.40 ERA or better this season. The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Braves OVER 9

No team is hotter at the plate than the Atlanta Braves right now, especially against right-handed starters.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 15 of their last 16 games overall, including 5 runs or more 13 times.  The Miami Marlins have quietly gone 24-10 in their last 34 games overall and have ridden a hot offense that has scored at least 6 runs in 14 of those games.

Eury Perez has great numbers this season but he has also faced a soft schedule of opponents. This will be his first start against the Braves, and I don't expect it to go too well for him.

Charlie Morton has been very hittable, especially at home where he is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven home starts this season. The OVER is 30-11 in Morton's last 41 starts as a favorite.

The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Rangers OVER 7.5

The Texas Rangers have scored a total of 26 runs in their last four games and now rank 1st in average (.273) and 1st in scoring (6.01 runs per game) this season.  The Houston Astros have scored a total of 29 runs in their last three games and a total of 56 runs in their last eight games for an average of 7 runs per game.

This total is too low for these two hot offenses.  Both Hunter Brown and Nathan Eovaldi are getting too much respect for this total to be sitting at 7.5 to 8 runs today. Eovaldi has come back down to reality of late.

The OVER is 16-6-5 in Rangers last 27 home games.  The OVER is 10-1-2 in Rangers last 13 home games with as total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Orioles OVER 8

The forecast looks ripe for scoring in Baltimore today with temps in the 80's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center. This 8-run total is set too low given the forecast.

Bailey Ober has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts for a 4.00 ERA. Kyle Bradish is 4-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 14 starts this season. While both of these starters have been solid this season, they are getting too much respect here.

Minnesota is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 July road games. The OVER is 11-4 in Twins last 15 games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. The OVER is 8-2 in Orioles last 10 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five games following a loss. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Red Sox/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

Kikuchi is 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 16 starts this season with a whopping 20 homers allowed in 84 innings.  Kichuchi has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Toronto is 0-4 in those four starts.

Kutter Crawford is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in seven starts for the Red Sox this season. Crawford is 0-1 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto as well. I expect both of these starters to struggle today.

The OVER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Astros/Rangers OVER 9

The Texas Rangers have scored a total of 23 runs in their last three games and now rank 1st in average (.274) and 1st in scoring (6.04 runs per game) this season.  The Houston Astros have scored a total of 24 runs in their last two games and a total of 51 runs in their last seven games for an average of 7.3 runs per game.

This total is too low for these two hot offenses.  Jon Gray recently had a blister issue and has allowed 7 earned runs and 14 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Ronel Blanco has a 4.70 ERA in four starts for the Astros this season and has allowed a homer in all four starts and a total of 7 homers in 23 innings.

The OVER is 10-1 in Astros last 11 games after allowing 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 16-5-5 in Rangers last 26 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Marlins/Braves OVER 9.5

No team is hotter at the plate than the Atlanta Braves right now, especially against right-handed starters.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 14 of their last 15 games overall, including 5 runs or more 12 times.  The Miami Marlins have quietly gone 24-9 in their last 33 games overall and have ridden a hot offense that has scored at least 6 runs in 14 of those games.

Bryan Hoeing was solid in his three home starts for the Marlins, but he was rocked in his lone road start, which came against these same Atlanta Braves.  Hoeing allowed 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 7-4 defeat.

Mike Soroka is likely to get the start for the Braves, but I like the OVER either way.  Soroka is making his way back from injury and just hasn't been himself this season, going 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in his two starts while allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings to the A's and Diamondbacks.

Atlanta is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games following a shutout victory.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Padres/Reds NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 11

The Cincinnati Reds are 24-11 in their last 35 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 27 of those 35 games, including 5 runs or more 24 times.  They are raking right now.  They just combined with the Braves for 21, 13 and 13 runs in their three-game series last weekend.  They just combined for 13 and 18 runs with the Orioles in two of their three games last series.

Simply put, books cannot set these totals high enough in Cincinnati games.  Now the Reds send their worst starter to the mound in Grahm Ashcraft, who is 3-6 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.666 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 2-5 with a 9.16 ERA and 1.816 WHIP in eight home starts, and 0-3 with a 16.03 ERA and 2.624 WHIP in his last three starts overall while allowing 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 28 bae runners in 10 2/3 innings.

Seth Lugo has been struggling badly of late for the Padres at 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in his last three starts.  Now he must face one of the hottest lineups in baseball in the Reds.  Plus, the Padres have been much better offensively of late themselves, so this should be a slug fest.  Temps will be in the 90's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark as well.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Padres last six Game 1's.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati.  The OVER is 6-0 in Reds last six games with a total of 11 or higher.  The OVER is 15-4 in Reds last 19 Game 1's.  The OVER is 5-1 in Reds last six games overall.  The OVER is 11-2 in Ashcraft's last 13 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cubs OVER 9.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games overall and are heating up at the plate.  The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 13 games overall, including 7 runs or more six times.  These teams should easily combined for 10-plus runs at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.

Both Taijuan Walker and Kyle Hendricks have good numbers recently which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  These two hot lineups should feast on these two soft tossers as both throw in the 80's.  Their luck runs out tonight.

Walker has been at his worst on the road with a 5.76 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in nine road starts.  Hendricks has been at his worst at home with a 3.77 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in three home starts.  Hendricks has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies for a 7.98 ERA.

The OVER is 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 home starts.  The OVER is 18-6-5 in Phillies last 29 road games with a total of 9 to 10.5 runs.  The OVER is 6-2 in Cubs last eight home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers/Rangers OVER 9.5

The Texas Rangers finally broke out of their mini slump with 8 runs Tuesday and 10 more runs Wednesday.  They rank 1st in average (.273) and 1st in scoring (6.06 runs per game) this season.  The Tigers are quietly having a lot of success at the plate of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 17 games overall.

Two gas can starting pitchers go today in Game 4 of this series.  Cody Bradford is 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  Reese Olson is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 19 2/3 innings.

Texas is 42-19 OVER in its last 61 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 37-16-8 in the last 61 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.  The OVER is 12-4-1 in Tigers last 17 games overall.  The OVER is 20-8-6 in Rangers last 34 home games.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Tigers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Padres/Pirates NL Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 8.5

I like UNDERS in these early start time games because teams tend to be sleep walking through them.  The Padres are a West Coast team and aren't used to playing this early, which is a 9:35 body clock game for them.  And I like how both of these starting pitchers have been trending, while fading both of these offenses.

The Padres have been held to 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games and 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games overall.  The Pirates have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games overall, and 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  These are two of the most struggling offenses in baseball.

Joe Musgrove is 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last six starts, allowing just 8 earned runs and one homer in 36 1/3 innings.  Musgrove is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh over the past three seasons, allowing just 3 earned runs and one homer in 17 innings with 21 K's.

Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in three home starts.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee and Miami.  He will hold the Padres in check here as well.

San Diego is 24-8 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season.  The UNDER is 24-8-1 in Padres last 33 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The UNDER is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

The Tampa Bay Rays rank 4th in average (.264) and 2nd in scoring (5.66 runs per game) this season.  The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 3rd in average (.265) and 5th in scoring (5.28 runs per game) this season.  These teams combined for 12 runs in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 tonight.

The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own against Zach Davies, who is 1-4 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA and 2.150 WHIP in five home starts.  Davies is 0-3 with a 15.18 ERA and 2.718 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 29 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.

Zach Eflin has been great at home this season, but it has been a different story on the road.  Eflin is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in six road starts, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 33 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks will do enough damage against him to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.

The OVER is 41-24 in Eflin's 65 career road starts.  The OVER is 19-6 in Eflin's last 25 starts vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Rays last eight games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 20-6 in Rays last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 35-17-2 in Diamondbacks last 54 interleague games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers/Rangers OVER 9.5

The Texas Rangers finally broke out of their mini slump with 8 runs in an 8-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers yesterday.  They still rank 1st in average (.272) and 1st in scoring (6.01 runs per game) this season.  The Tigers are quietly having a lot of success at the plate of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 16 games overall.

The Rangers will hang a big number on Detroit's worst starter in Joey Wentz, who is 1-8 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in 14 starts this season while allowing 48 earned runs and 13 homers in 62 2/3 innings.  Wentz is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in six road starts, allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 2/3 innings.

Dane Dunning has solid numbers overall at 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in nine starts this season.  But he has been at his worst at home with a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four starts while allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 22 2/3 innings.  Dunning has never beaten the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 5.70 ERA in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Detroit.

Texas is 41-19 OVER in its last 60 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 36-16-8 in the last 60 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.  The OVER is 11-4-1 in Tigers last 16 games overall.  The OVER is 14-5-5 in Rangers last 24 home games.  The OVER is 8-1-1 in Tigers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Orioles OVER 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 23-11 in their last 34 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 26 of those 34 games, including 5 runs or more 23 times.  They are raking right now.  They just combined with the Braves for 21, 13 and 13 runs in their three-game series over the weekend.  They just combined for 13 more runs with the Orioles in Game 1 of this series before a 4-run outing in Game 2 that was delayed by rain and featured two of the best starters on both teams.

Simply put, the books can't set Cincinnati totals high enough right now.  The Reds will be sending their worst starter in Luke Weaver to the mound tonight.  Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in 12 starts this season while allowing 46 earned runs and 14 homers in 60 1/3 innings.  Weaver has a 9.00 ERA and 2.231 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Kyle Gibson is getting too much respect from the books as well as he hasn't been great this season, either.  He is 8-5 despite a 4.30 ERA and 1.337 WHIP, including 4-3 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in seven home starts.  Gibson has lost his last two starts to the Cubs and Mariners while allowing 8 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 innings for an 8.00 ERA.

The OVER is 13-5 in Reds last 18 road games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Reds last five games overall.  The OVER is 6-1 in Reds last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-2 in Orioles last eight games overall.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.  The OVER is 53-25 in Gibson's 78 career home starts at night.  The OVER is 6-0 in Reds last six games after allowing 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -115

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.  The Chicago Cubs had to travel back from London Sunday and will still be suffering a 'hangover' from that trip.  They won't be fully ready mentally to face the Phillies in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Now they have to take on one of the hottest starters in baseball in Ranger Suarez.  He is 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just 3 earned runs and 27 base runners in 26 innings despite facing three of the best lineups in baseball in the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Braves.

Jameson Taillon is the weakest link in this Chicago rotation.  He is 2-5 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in six home starts.  Taillon is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.818 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

The Phillies are 17-4 in Suarez's last 21 starts following a team win.  The Cubs are 2-10 in Taillon's 12 starts this season.  The Phillies are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Philadelphia is 10-1 in its last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Phillies are 15-5 in their last 20 games overall and playing their best baseball of the season.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers/Rangers OVER 9.5

The Rangers are 24-14 at home this season where they are hitting .283 as a team and scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Tigers are quietly having a lot of success at the plate of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 15 games overall.

Matt Manning will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Tigers.  He is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts while already allowing 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings.  Martin Perez is 7-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 15 starts for the Rangers this season and has taken a big step back in 2023.  

Perez is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 11 career starts against Detroit.  He allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-6 victory over the Tigers on May 30th in his lone start against them this season.

Texas is 40-19 OVER in its last 59 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 35-16-8 in the last 59 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Tigers last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 13-5-5 in Rangers last 23 home games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in Tigers last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 22-11 in their last 33 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 26 of those 33 games, including 5 runs or more 23 times.  They are raking right now.  They just combined with the Braves for 21, 13 and 13 runs in their three-game series over the weekend.  They just combined for 13 more runs with the Orioles in Game 1 of this series.  The books simply cannot set their totals high enough.

That's the case again tonight as they have set this total at 8.5 runs.  Both these starting pitchers are getting too much respect due to their solid ERA numbers.  But a closer look shows that both starters are susceptible to the homer, and these are two of the most powerful lineups in baseball.

Andrew Abbott gave up 3 homers to the Rockies in his last start and is in line for his worst start of the season here after an impressive start thus far in a small sample size.  Tyler Wells has already allowed 18 homers in 81 2/3 innings for the Orioles.

The OVER is 13-4 in Reds last 17 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Reds last four games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Reds last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Orioles last seven games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tigers/Rangers OVER 9

After getting held in check by the Yankees on the road over the weekend, the Texas Rangers will get back on track at the plate against Matt Boyd and the lowly Detroit Tigers at home Monday.  The Rangers are 24-13 at home this season, hitting .285 as a team and scoring 6.4 runs per game.  They are also scoring 6.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Boyd is 5-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 14 starts this season, allowing 44 earned runs and 10 homers in 70 1/3 innings.  Boyd is 1-7 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in nine career starts against the Rangers.  He faced Texas earlier this season on May 29th and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-0 defeat.

The Tigers are quietly having a lot of success at the plate of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 14 games overall.  They will get to Andrew Heaney, who has been at his worst at home this season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in eight home starts.  Heaney is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two career starts against the Tigers, allowing 10 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings.

The OVER is 14-2 in Boyd's last 16 night starts.  The OVER is 12-1 in Heaney's last 13 starts as a home favorite.  The OVER is 35-16-7 in the last 58 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 10-4 in Tigers last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 13-5-4 in Rangers last 22 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Orioles OVER 10

The Cincinnati Reds are 22-10 in their last 32 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 26 of those 32 games, including 5 runs or more 23 times.  They are raking right now.  They just combined with the Braves for 21, 13 and 13 runs in their three-game series over the weekend.

The Reds have been at their best against left-handed starters scoring 5.6 runs per game against them this season.  The Orioles have also been great against southpaws at 5.2 runs per game.  With these two gas can lefties going tonight, both offenses should do enough to get this OVER 10 combined runs.

Brandon Williamson is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in seven starts this season while allowing 22 earned runs and 8 homers in 36 2/3 innings.  Cole Irvin is 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 innings.

The OVER is 14-4 in Reds last 18 Game 1's.  The OVER is 12-4 in Reds last 16 road games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Orioles last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Orioles last four Game 1's.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Braves OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball at the plate.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 12 consecutive games and 18 of their last 20 games overall.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 17 of those 20 games.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own after scoring at least 7 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.

The Twins have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 15 games overall.  They can get to Spencer Strider, who has a 3.93 ERA in 15 starts this season, a 4.62 ERA in seven home starts and an 8.40 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.

Sonny Gray has good numbers overall this season but is fortunate to have as low of an ERA (2.44) as he has with a 1.284 WHIP.  He has a 1.500 WHIP in six road starts and doesn't go very deep into his starts, averaging 5.4 innings per start.  The Braves will get into their bullpen early in this one.

The OVER is 7-0 in Strider's seven home starts this season.  The OVER is 10-2 in Gray's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 35-15-3 in Twins last 53 interleague road games.  The OVER is 46-22-3 in Braves last 71 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 24-11-1 in Braves last 36 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +117

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants.  I'll back them as underdogs here to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 3 Sunday.

Ryne Nelson has been at his best on the road this season with a 3.41 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in seven starts away from home.  He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafini, who has been at his worst at home at 2-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in nine home starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.

Arizona is 16-4 on the road with a total of 8.5 to 10 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in road games vs. starting pitchers with good control allowing 1.75 or fewer walks per start this season.  Arizona is 13-3 in its last 16 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Reds OVER 12

The Cincinnati Reds are 22-8 in their last 30 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 24 of those 30 games, including 5 runs or more 21 times.  They are raking right now.  The Braves have been the hottest lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching since June 1st.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games, including 5 or more nine times.

These teams just combined for 21 runs yesterday in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball inside Great American Ballpark.  It should be more of the same today with these two starting pitchers going.

Graham Ashcraft is 3-5 with a 6.78 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 13 starts this season, 2-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in seven home starts, and 1-2 with a 12.34 ERA and 2.228 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  He'll be opposed by Jared Shuster, who is 4-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in three road starts.

The OVER is 40-15-3 in Braves last 58 games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Atlanta is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after a game where their bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Tampa Bay Rays rank 2nd in baseball in scoring at 5.72 runs per game.  They just hung 11 runs on the Royals yesterday, and they should stay hot at the plate today against arguably the worst starter in baseball.

The Rays will crush Jordan Lyles, who is 0-11 with a 6.51 ERA in 15 starts this season while allowing 62 earned runs and a whopping 18 homers in 85 2/3 innings.  Lyles is 0-5 with an 8.35 ERA in seven road starts as well.  He is 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA in six career starts against the Rays.

Yonny Chirinos has been solid for the Rays at 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in three starts this season.  He will hold down the Royals, who are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.  They have a ton of injuries in their lineup right now that are bogging down their offense.

The Royals are 0-15 in Lyles' 15 starts this season and getting outscored by 2.8 runs per game.  Tampa Bay is 18-2 in its last 20 home games with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs and winning by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 25-4 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season and winning by 3.6 runs per game.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -108

The Boston Red Sox are 7-2 in their last nine games overall and hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 10 games overall.  They should stay hot at the plate against Lance Lynn, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.

Lynn is 4-8 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.506 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 61 earned runs and a whopping 18 homers in 84 1/3 innings.  Lynn has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in six starts in Chicago.

The Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound in this one behind James Paxton, who is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in seven starts this season with 51 K's in 38 1/3 innings.  Paxton has never lost to the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in five career starts against them.

The White Sox are 1-4 in their last five games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer four times.  Chicago is 3-9 in its last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-135)

The San Diego Padres just blew out the Giants 10-0 yesterday and are starting to hit the ball up to their potential finally.  With their massive advantage on the mound tonight, I expect another blowout victory in their favor over the struggling Washington Nationals.

The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 10 of those 17 games, and 4 runs or fewer in 13 of those.  They haven't score more than 6 runs in any of their last 17 games.

The Padres will tee off on Pat Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last three years.  Corbin went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.468 WHIIP in 31 starts in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts in 2022, and he is now 4-8 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in 15 starts in 2023.  Corbin is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Padres, allowing 8 earned runs and 25 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.

Joe Musgrove has been dominant this season with the exception of one start in Mexico City in the altitude which has inflated his number.  Musgrove is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in five home starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and only 2 homers in 27 innings.

The Padres are 16-3 in Musgrove's last 19 starts vs. a NL team with a .400 or worse slugging percentage and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  The Nationals are 0-9 in their last nine games when their opponent allowed two runs or fewer in their previous game.  Washington is 11-41 in its last 52 Game 1's.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -108

The Texas Rangers are better than the New York Yankees this season, especially with the Yankees without Aaron Judge right now.  They have the rest advantage tonight after having Thursday off while the Yankees completed a series with the Mariners yesterday.  And they have the advantage on the mound tonight, so they should be bigger favorites.

Dane Dunning is 4-1 with a 3.45 ERA in eight starts this season for the Rangers, allowing just 4 homers in 44 1/3 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four road starts without a homer allowed in 21 2/3 innings.  Dunning has posted a 1.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees as well.

Clarke Schmidt is one of the weak links in New York's rotation.  He is 2-6 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 15 starts this season, allowing 37 earned runs and 11 homers in 71 2/3 innings.  Schmidt faced the Rangers earlier this season and it did not go well as he allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-2 defeat.

The Yankees are 1-7 in Schmidt's eight starts with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  New York is 4-11 in Schmidt's 15 starts this season overall.  The Yankees are 0-7 in Schmidt's seven starts vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  Texas is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Reds OVER 10.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 21-8 in their last 29 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 23 of those 29 games, including 5 runs or more 20 times.  They are raking right now.  The Braves have been the hottest lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching since June 1st.  They have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games, including 5 or more eight times.

Runs will be plentiful for the Braves tonight off of Luke Weaver, who is 1-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 41 earned runs and 13 homers in 57 innings.  Weaver has posted a 10.12 ERA and 2.174 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.  He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in five career starts against the Braves.

A.J. Smith-Shawver is no more than a spot starter for the Braves.  Fortunately for him, he has been able to face two of the worst lineups in baseball both at home in the Rockies and Nationals.  He still gave up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings to the Rockies.  And this is now by far his toughest task of the season facing the red-hot Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

The OVER is 13-3 in Braves last 16 games after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 39-15-3 in Braves last 57 games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.  The OVER is 13-4 in Reds last 17 Game 1's.  Both teams get to 5-plus runs in this one to cash this OVER 10.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NL West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Padres -128

The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the San Francisco Giants.  I fully expect them to win Game 4 today behind their massive advantage on the mound.

Blake Snell is a notorious slow starter and he is much better than his numbers show.  Snell has been virtually unhittable in his last five starts, going 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA in his while allowing just 2 earned runs in 30 innings with a whopping 45 K's.  Snell is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in six career starts against the Giants.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with 27 K's in his last three starts against them.

Alex Wood is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in four home starts for the Giants.  Wood allowed 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres.

The Padres are 8-0 in their last eight games when their opponent allowed two runs or fewer in their previous game.  San Diego is 19-7 in its last 26 Game 4's.  Bet the Padres Thursday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rockies/Reds OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of those 28 games, including 5 runs or more 19 times.  They are raking right now.  They will stay hot at the plate today, while the Colorado Rockies will chip in enough runs to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket.

The Rockies will be going with a bullpen game here.  They are desperate right now after going 0-7 in their last seven games overall while allowing at least 5 runs in eight consecutive games.  The Reds are fully capable of covering this total on their own today, which they have come close to doing in scoring 8 or more runs in three of their last four games.

The OVER is 42-21-4 in Reds last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings in Cincinnati.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -112

The Chicago Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.  They have outscored their opponents 56-22 in their last eight games overall.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-8 in their last eight games overall.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They have been held to a total of 2 runs in their last four games while getting shut out three times.

Kyle Hendricks is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in five starts for the Cubs this season with only one homer allowed in 28 1/3 innings.  Rich Hill is 6-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 14 starts for the Pirates this season, including 3-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Cubs are scoring 5.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season, while the Pirates are scoring 3.9 runs per game vs. right-handed starters.  The Cubs are 12-1 vs. teams that average one or more stolen bases per game this season.  Chicago is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-105)

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of those 28 games, including 5 runs or more 19 times.  They are raking right now.  They will be highly motivated to keep their current 10-game winning streak going in which they have scored at least 4 runs in nine of 10.

The Rockies will be going with a bullpen game here.  They are desperate right now after going 0-7 in their last seven games overall while allowing at least 5 runs in eight consecutive games.  The Reds have scored 8 or more runs in three of their last four games.  They will hang a big number on the Rockies today.

Andrew Abbott is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in three starts for the Reds this season.  He's just another great young starter in this rotation.  He has fired 17 2/3 shutout innings in those three starts.  He won't go unblemished forever, but he will be good enough to beat the Rockies by multiple runs today.

Colorado is 4-20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game this season and losing by 3.0 runs per game on average.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Padres/Giants NL West Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -110

It was a tough beat for us Padres backers last night.  They blew a 4-2 lead in the 9th and lost in extra innings to the Giants.  They didn't have closer Josh Hader available as he closed the two previous games in wins over the Rays.  Hader is back tonight, and I expect the Padres to bounce back in Game 2.

Seth Lugo is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in four road starts.  He'll be opposed by Anthony Desclafini, who is 2-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.314 WHIP in eight home starts this season.  Desclafini has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 23 base runners in 12 innings.

The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.  San Diego is 5-0 in its last five Game 2's.  The Giants are 2-6 in their last eight home games.  Bet the Padres Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockies/Reds OVER 10

The Cincinnati Reds are 19-8 in their last 27 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 21 of those 27 games, including 5 runs or more 18 times.  They are raking right now.  They will stay hot at the plate today, while the Colorado Rockies will chip in enough runs to help us cash this OVER 10 ticket.

It took a miracle to keep Game 1 under the 10-run total in a 5-4 victory by the Reds.  They had 9 combined runs at the end of the 6th inning.  Plus, the Reds didn't score on 2nd and 3rd with one out in the 8th, and the Rockies didn't score on 1st and 3rd with no out in the 9th.  It was a tough beat for us over bettors, but I'm back on the over today.

Noah Davis is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in three starts this season for the Rockies.  he allowed 7 earned runs in his last start against the Diamondbacks in a 11-4 defeat.  Ben Lively is 3-3 with a 4.42 ERA in six starts for the Reds this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.51 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs, 5 homers and 30 base runners in 19 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 41-21-4 in Reds last 66 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Cincinnati.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rockies last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -112

The Miami Marlins have won five consecutive games while scoring at least 4 runs in all five victories.  They are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall with 4 or more runs scored in 13 of those games.  The Toronto Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last seven games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games overall.

The Marlins have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Eury Perez is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last three.  He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.366 WHIP In 14 starts this season with a whopping 19 homers allowed in 71 innings.  Kikuchi has a 4.87 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in eight road starts as well.

The Marlins are 9-0 in their last nine interleague home games.  Miami is 17-4 in its last 21 interleague games overall.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Padres/Giants NL West Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -108

The San Francisco Giants are getting too much respect from the books tonight due to their current 7-game winning streak.  They just swept the short-handed Dodgers, and this is a natural letdown spot for them after sweeping their hated rivals.  It's their first home games back following a 6-game road trip as well.

The Padres have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  The Giants will be going with an opener in Ryan Walker before turning it over to their bullpen.  Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has been dominant this season for the Padres, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  

Wacha is 5-1 in his last eight starts and has allowed only 5 earned runs in 48 2/3 innings for a 0.91 ERA and 0.790 WHIP.  Wacha has never lost to the Giants, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Wacha's teams are 16-4 in his last 20 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  San Francisco is 10-17 (-12.6 Units) in its last 27 games following five or more consecutive wins.  The Giants are 19-46 in their last 65 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.  The Padres are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including 6-0 in the last six meetings in San Francisco.  Bet the Padres Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -125

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.272) and 1st in scoring (6.19 runs per game) this season.  The Chicago White Sox rank 22nd in average (.235) and 24th in scoring (4.16 runs per game) this season.  The Rangers have the advantage at the plate and on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.

The White Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.  They have been held to 2 runs or fewer in six of their last 10 games overall.  Andrew Heaney has done his best work on the road for the Rangers, posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in five starts away from home this season.

The White Sox have yet to name a starter but it appears it's going to be Jesse Sholtens, who gave up 2 earned runs and 6 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to the lowly Tigers in a 7-3 defeat in his lone start this season.  The White Sox have a 5.16 ERA at home as a bullpen as well.

The Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Rangers Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Reds OVER 10

The Cincinnati Reds are 18-8 in their last 26 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 20 of those 26 games, including 5 runs or more 17 times.  They are raking right now.  They will stay hot at the plate today, while the Colorado Rockies will chip in enough runs to help us cash this OVER 10 ticket.

Austin Gomber is a complete gas can for the Rockies.  He is 4-6 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in 14 starts, allowing 54 earned runs and 16 homers in 66 2/3 innings.  The Rockies have now allowed 6 runs or more in six consecutive games, all of which have come on the road.

There's not much to like about Cincinnati's Brandon Williamson, either.  He is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 31 2/3 innings.  As you can see, both of these starters have a propensity to give up the long ball at an alarming rate.

The OVER is 8-2 in Reds last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 13-3 in Reds last 16 games during Game 1 of a series.  The OVER is 41-20-4 in Reds last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Cincinnati.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Giants/Dodgers NL West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -115

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants.  That's especially the case after their most embarrassing loss of the season Saturday, a 15-0 defeat at the hands of their hated rivals.  It's bounce back time in Game 3 Sunday.

The Dodgers have the advantage on the mound in this one and should be bigger home favorites as a result.  Tony Gonsolin is 4-1 wit a 1.93 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in four home starts.  Gonsolin has posted a 3.65 ERA in three career starts against the Giants.

Logan Webb is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA in 14 starts this season, 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Webb is 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his last four starts against the Dodgers, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 innings.

The Dodgers are 14-3 as a home favorite of -150 or less this season.  Los Angeles is 13-2 after a loss by 4 runs or more this season.  The Dodgers are 12-0 in Gonsolin's last 12 home starts in the first half of the season.  Bet the Dodgers Sunday.

20* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Mariners OVER 7.5

This 7.5-run total is way too low today with these two gas can starting pitchers in Lance Lynn and Bryce Miller going for their respective teams.  We may have this covered by the time both of these starters exit.

Lance Lynn is 4-7 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.93 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last three, allowing 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 14 innings.  Miller is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with an 11.08 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in his last three, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings.

Seattle is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after scoring 3 runs or less in three consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Guardians/Diamondbacks Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -103

The Cleveland Guardians will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  This is a very tough team to sweep as they have been one of the most resilient teams in baseball over the past couple seasons.

Indeed, the Guardians are 13-1 following two or more consecutive losses this season.  Cleveland is 23-7 in its last 30 during Game 3 of a series.

The Guardians have the advantage on the mound in this one as well.  Tanner Bibee is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Zach Davies, who is 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 2.021 WHIP in four home starts.  Davies has posted a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP in two career starts against the Guardians.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* Angels/Royals AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

This 9-run total is too low today between the Angels and Royals with these two gas can starting pitchers going.  The Angels have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games overall, while the Royals are heating up at the plate scoring at least 4 runs in four of their last five games overall.  These teams combined for 19 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today.

Tyler Anderson has been a major disappointment for the Angels this season, posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in 12 starts, including a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three while allowing 15 earned runs in 15 innings.  Zack Greinke is 1-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 starts this season for the Royals.

These two starters actually squared off once already this season resulting in an 11-8 win for the Royals and 19 combined runs.  Greinke allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings, while Anderson allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings back on April 22nd.

The OVER is 28-9 in Anderson's 37 career road starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  The OVER is 9-3-2 in Angels last 14 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Astros OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 17-8 in their last 25 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 19 of those 25 games, including 5 runs or more 16 times.  They are raking right now.  They will stay hot at the plate today, while the Astros will get their bats going against the weak link in Cincinnati's rotation in Luke Weaver.

Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 36 earned runs and 12 homers in 52 innings.  He'll be opposed by Ronel Blanco, who has been shaky in his two starts for the Astros this season.  He has allowed 3 homers and 17 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in those two starts.

The OVER is 11-4 in Reds last 19 road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Rays/Padres Interleague ANNIHILATOR on San Diego -111

Blake Snell will be making his first career start against his former team in the Tampa Bay Rays tonight and will be highly motivated to beat them.  He has had his best stuff in recent starts and is primed to shut them down as a result.

Snell is 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just one run and 14 base runners in 19 innings with 27 K's.  He'll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who has been shaky away from Tampa Bay.  Eflin is 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in five road starts this season, allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 27 2/3 innings.  He even allowed 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings at Oakland in his last start.

Eflin's teams are 5-19 in his last 24 road starts with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs.  The Rays are 0-7 in thier last seven road games vs. a starting pitcher with poor control who walks 2.75 or more batters per start.  The Rays are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 2's.  The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Padres Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +107

The Cincinnati Reds are 16-8 in their last 24 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 18 of those 24 games, including 5 runs or more 15 times.  They are raking right now.  They should not be underdogs to the Houston Astros, who are struggling at the plate right now scoring one run or fewer in three of their last five games overall and remain without their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez.

Hunter Greene has been at his best away from hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.  He has a 3.35 ERA in eight road starts allowing just 16 earned runs and 2 homers in 43 innings with a whopping 67 K's.  Greene has one of the best K rates in all of baseball, so his stuff is clearly electric.

Brandon Bielak is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in seven starts for the Astros this season, allowing 62 base runners and 8 homers in 38 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in his last two stats against Cleveland and Toronto.

The Reds are 11-2 in their last 13 road games.  Cincinnati is 6-0 in its last six games overall and motivated to keep this winning streak alive.  The Reds are 46-19 in the last 65 meetings, including 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Houston.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

20* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 9

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.270) and 1st in scoring (6.15 runs per game) this season.  The Toronto Blue Jays rank 5th in average (.263) and 15th in scoring (4.58).  This total of 9 is too low for a game involving these two offenses today.

That's especially the case when the Blue Jays are expected to make this a bullpen game involving Trevor Richards.  And Dane Dunning has a 4.86 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in three home starts for the Rangers this season.  Dunning is 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Toronto is 7-1 OVER in road games vs. a team with a .440 slugging percentage or better this season.  The OVER 6-1-2 in Rangers last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1-2 in Rangers last eight games overall.  The OVER is 17-7-5 in Rangers last 29 home games.  The OVER is 19-7-1 in Blue Jays last 27 road games with a total of 9 to 10.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds +166

The Cincinnati Reds are 15-8 in their last 23 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 18 of those 23 games, including 5 runs or more 15 times.  They are raking right now.  They are playing way too good to be this big of underdogs to the Astros, especially given the favorable spot for them.

Indeed, the Reds are rested after having Thursday off, while the Astros completed a 3-game series with the Nationals on Thursday.  They went to extra innings to boot.  The Astros are without their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez as well and only managed one run against the Nationals yesterday.

Andrew Abbott has been very impressive in his two starts this season, pitching 11 2/3 shutout innings while allowing only 6 hits.  He is getting disrespected here.  J.P. France is getting too much respect.  He hads already allowed 7 homers in 40 2/3 innings this season.  France is 0-0 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three home starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is 7-0 after a game where they stranded 3 or fewer base runners this season.  The Reds are 10-3 (+11.9 Units) vs. a AL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 in its last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 road games.  This is some of the best value on a MLB underdog all season.  Bet the Reds Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.272) and 1st in scoring (6.23 runs per game) this season.  The Toronto Blue Jays rank 3rd in average (.265) and 12th in scoring (4.62).  This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving these two offenses.

That's especially the case when one of the starters in this game is gas can Martin Perez, who is 6-2 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in his last three.  Perez has allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, allowing 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to the Twins.  Gausman is 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Texas.

Toronto is 7-0 OVER in road games vs. a team with a .440 slugging percentage or better this season.  The OVER 6-0-2 in Rangers last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0-2 in Rangers last seven games overall.  The OVER is 17-6-5 in Rangers last 28 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 10-2 in their last 12 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of those 12 games.  They beat the Rockies 8-3 yesterday, and it will be more of the same today due to their advantage on the mound and at the plate.

While Jared Shuster doesn't have the best numbers this season, he has only allowed 2 homers in 35 2/3 innings and is due some positive regression.  Either way, he is much better than Colorado gas can Dinelson Lamet, who is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 24 base runners in 11 innings.

Colorado is 29-77 in its last 106 road games in the first half of the season and losing by 2.1 runs per game on average.  Atlanta is 55-18 vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons and winning by 2.1 runs per game.  The Braves are 64-28 in their last 92 home games.  Atlanta is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians +124

The Cleveland Guardians will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres.  They faced the Padres top two starters in Musgrove and Wacha in the first two games, and now they finally have a big advantage on the mound in Game 3 tonight and will avoid the sweep as a result.

Logan Allen is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.90 ERA in four road starts.  He'll be opposed by Ryan Weathers, who is 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in eight starts this season, 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in three home starts, and 0-1 with an 8.30 ERA and 2.422 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Cleveland is 9-1 in its last 10 road games following a shutout loss.  The Guardians are 12-1 in their last 13 games following two or more consecutive losses.  The Padres are 3-8 (-9.5 Units) in home games vs. left-handed starters this season.  San Diego is 15-18 (-12.3 Units) in all home games this season.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight with Weathers on the mound.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* AL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Rangers OVER 8

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.272) and 1st in scoring (6.27 runs per game) this season.  The Los Angeles Angels rank 8th in scoring (4.97 runs per game) this season.  These teams combined for 15 runs in Game 1, 10 runs in Game 2 and 9 runs in Game 3.  It should be more of the same today to top this 8-run total in Game 4.

Shohei Ohtani has really faltered on the mound of late.  He is 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing 27 earned runs and 11 homers in 48 innings.  Ohtani has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in seven career starts against the Rangers.

Nathan Eovaldi has great numbers this season, and those numbers coupled with Ohtani's reputation are keeping this total lower than it should be.  Eovaldi is due some negative regression, and it showed in his last start as he allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 6 1/3 innings to the Rays in an 8-4 victory.

The OVER is 12-3-3 in Rangers last 18 home games.  The OVER is 11-1-3 in the last 15 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 9-1 in Angels 10 games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better this season.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in Angels last 11 road games.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120)

The Atlanta Braves are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in nine of those 11 games.  I expect them to put it on the Colorado Rockies today and win this game by multiple runs.

A.J. Smith-Shawver is another young talented starter for the Braves.  He pitched 5 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run against the Nationals in his first start this season, and he should have more success here against a Colorado lineup that is hitting .235 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season.  The Rockies are short-handed with a ton of injuries right now as well.

Lefty Kyle Freeland has actually been at his worst away from Coors Field this season, going 1-5 with a 4.81 ERA in six starts allowing 8 homers in 33 2/3 innings.  The Braves are scoring 5.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Freeland is 1-2 with a 475 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.

Colorado is 29-76 in its last 105 road games in the first half of the season and losing by 2.1 runs per game on average.  Atlanta is 54-18 vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons and winning by 2.1 runs per game.  The Braves are 63-28 in their last 91 home games.  Atlanta is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Phillies and Diamondbacks combined for 17 and 18 runs in the first two games of this series.  This total of 8.5 is too low considering how hot both of these lineups are.  The Phillies have scored a total of 30 runs in their last three games and are getting hot in the month of June once again.  The Diamondbacks have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.

Ranger Suarez is 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in six starts this season for the Phillies.  Suarez is 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.739 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia.  Merrill Kelly is 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 13 starts this season, and 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA in seven home starts.  While Kelly has been solid, he has his hands fully against this blistering Philly lineup tonight.

The OVER is 13-3 in Phillies last 16 road games vs. NL teams scoring at least 5 runs per game.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.  The Phillies and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 9 runs in eight of their last nine meetings, including 14 or more runs six of those.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125)

The Boston Red Sox have lost the the first two games of this series to the Colorado Rockies both in extra innings despite being -200 or higher favorites.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today, and I like their chances of winning this game by multiple runs due to their big advantage on the mound.

Garrett Whitlock is 3-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in two home starts.  While not spectacular, Whitlock is much better than Austin Gomber, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.

Gomber is 4-5 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.747 WHIP in 13 starts this season, allowing 51 earned runs and a whopping 16 homers in 60 2/3 innings.  Gomber is 0-1 with a 12.65 ERA and 3.093 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs, 5 homers and 33 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight, which will help aid the Red Sox in pouring on the runs against Gomber.

The Rockies are 36-74 in their last 110 road games.  The Red Sox are 39-19 in their last 58 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Colorado is scoring 3.8 runs per game on the road this season, while Boston is scoring 5.7 runs per game at home.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Interleague Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Royals OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are 14-8 in their last 22 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 17 of those 22 games, including 5 runs or more 14 times.  They are raking right now.  They will do the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER 9 ticket, and the Royals have scored 4 runs in each of the first two games of this series and should at least get to that number again today.

Ben Lively has been rocked in each of his last two starts coming in, allowing 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 20 base runners in 13 2/3 innings against the Cardinals and Brewers.  Daniel Lynch is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three starts for the Royals this season, and two have come against the Rockies and Nationals at home.  This is a big step up in class for Lynch tonight.

Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left tonight in Kansas City, making conditions ripe for scoring.  The OVER is 9-3 in Reds last 12 road games.  The OVER is 41-20-4 in Reds last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* AL West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Angels/Rangers OVER 9

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.273) and 1st in scoring (6.28 runs per game) this season.  The Los Angeles Angels rank 7th in scoring (4.99 runs per game) this season.  These teams combined for 15 runs in Game 1 and 10 runs in Game 2, and it should be more of the same today to top this 9-run total in Game 3.

Lefty Reid Detmers is 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 11 starts for the Angels this season.  Detmers is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six career starts against the Rangers, who are hitting .285 and scoring 6.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

Andrew Heaney is 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 12 starts this season for the Rangers.  He has been at his worst at home, going 3-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in seven home starts while allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 33 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 12-3-2 in Rangers last 17 home games.  The OVER is 11-1-2 in the last 14 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 12-1 in Heaney's last 13 starts as a home favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on White Sox/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball in scoring at 5.69 runs per game and are capable of covering this total on their own.  Tony Gonsolin's peripherals aren't as good as his overall numbers and he is vulnerable, as shown by allowing 3 earned runs to the Reds and 3 earned runs to the Braves in two of his last three starts.

Lance Lynn has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season.  He is 4-6 with a 6.72 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in 13 starts, allowing 54 earned runs and a whopping 16 homers in 72 1/3 innings.  Lynn has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees and Angels coming in.

The Dodgers and their opponents have combined to score at least 9 runs in 16 of their last 20 games overall, which is an 80% win rate pertaining to this 8.5-run total tonight.  The OVER is 6-1 in Dodgers last seven interleague games.  The OVER is 19-7 in Dodgers last 26 games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Royals OVER 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 13-8 in their last 21 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 16 of those 21 games, including 5 runs or more 13 times.  They are raking right now.  They will do the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER 9.5 ticket in a game involving two gas can starting pitchers.

The Reds will tee off on Jordan Lyles, who is 0-10 with a 6.60 ERA in 13 starts this season while allowing 54 earned runs and a whopping 18 homers in 73 2/3 innings.  Brandon Williamson hasn't been much better for the Reds, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings.

The Reds have a 5.37 ERA as a bullpen on the road, while the Royals have a 5.63 ERA as a bullpen at home.  The OVER is 12-1 in Lyles' last 13 home starts when playing against a losing team that wins 46% to 49% of their games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Reds last 11 road games.  The OVER is 40-19-4 in Reds last 63 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Rangers OVER 9

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.273) and 1st in scoring (6.33 runs per game) this season.  The Los Angeles Angels rank 8th in scoring (4.96 runs per game) this season.  These teams combined for 15 runs yesterday, and it should be more of the same today to top this 9-run total.

Jaime Barria is getting too much respect for what he has done in three starters this season against the Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox.  He takes a big step up in class here against a Rangers team that is hitting .290 and scoring 6.7 runs per game at home this season.  Texas hasn't listed a starter as of this writing, which means they might go with a bullpen game that involves Cody Bradford. If they do, this total will only go up, and I like the OVER 9 no matter who Texas starts.

The OVER is 11-3-2 in Rangers last 16 home games.  The OVER is 10-1-2 in the last 13 meetings in Texas.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rays/A's OVER 8.5

There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right in Oakland tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The Rays rank 2nd in scoring (5.84 runs per game) this season.  The A's are starting to mash as they have scored 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall, including 8 runs or more three times.

The Rays will tee off on James Kaprielian, who is 1-6 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 30 earned runs, 7 homers and 25 walks in 41 innings.  Kaprielian faces the Rays earlier this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-0 defeat on April 9th.

Zach Eflin has huge home/road splits this season.  While he has been dominant at home, Eflin is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in four road starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 23 innings.  The A's should stay hot at the plate against him and the Rays as well.

The A's have a 6.00 ERA as a bullpen while the Rays have a 4.20 ERA as a bullpen, and a 4.71 ERA on the road.  The OVER is 41-22 in Eflin's last 63 road starts.  The OVER is 9-1 in A's 10 games vs. AL East opponents this season.  The OVER is 9-1 in A's 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 62% of their games this season.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Heat/Nuggets Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +9

The Miami Heat have had their backs against the wall all playoffs and have thrived in this situation.  They won't go down without a fight in Game 5 tonight.  The Denver Nuggets have never won an NBA Title, so the pressure is all on them now to try and close out this series.  I think the Heat hang around in Game 5 and possibly pull off the upset similar to when they did in Game 2 in Denver.

The Nuggets are not a very good defensive team, but the Heat just haven't shot the ball that well in this series with the exception of Game 2 when they shot 48.7% and won outright.  They shot just 40.6% in Game 1, 37% in Game 3 and 44.9% in Game 4.  I have to think Miami is in line for a better shooting Game 5.  The Nuggets have shot 49.4% or better in every game in this series and have some regression in store.

Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Nuggets are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Royals OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds are 12-8 in their last 20 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in 15 of those 20 games, including 5 runs or more 12 times.  They are raking right now.  The Kansas City Royals are struggling at the plate, but that should change tonight against Cincinnati's weakest starter in Luke Weaver.

Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in nine starts this season already allowing 33 earned runs and a whopping 12 homers in 47 1/3 innings.  The Reds should stay hot at the plate against Zack Greinke, who is 1-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 starts this season while allowing 11 homers in 66 2/3 innings.  He just gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Marlins in his last start.

The Royals have a 5.79 ERA as a bullpen at home while the Reds have a 5.55 ERA as a bullpen on the road.  The OVER is 8-0 in Reds last eight games following a one-run win over a division rival.  The OVER is 19-4 in Royals last 23 home games following three or more consecutive road games.  The OVER is 12-2 in Reds last 14 during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Angels/Rangers OVER 9.5

The Texas Rangers rank 1st in average (.274) and 1st in scoring (6.37 runs per game) this season.  The Los Angeles Angels rank 8th in scoring (4.93 runs per game) this season.  This game should see double-digit combined runs to top this 9.5-run total tonight.

Tyler Anderson is 3-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 11 starts this season for the Angels and is in line to get rocked by the Rangers, who score 6.8 runs per game at home and 6.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Dane Dunning is 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in six starts this season in a limited sample size against mostly weak competition.  He allowed 4 runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings to the Cardinals in his last start.  Dunning is 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in nine career starts against the Angels.

The OVER is 8-1 in Angels nine games vs. a starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better this season.  The OVER is 10-1-1 in Angels last 12 Monday games.  The OVER is 10-3-2 in Rangers last 15 home games.  The OVER is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings in Texas.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have quietly scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 19 games overall and just called up their top prospect. The St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  These teams have combined for 11 and 12 runs in the first two games of this series, and it should be more of the same today.

This is a very low total for a game involving Adam Wainwright.  He is washed up, going 2-1 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in six starts this season.  Wainwright is 11-17 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in 35 career starts against Cincinnati.  He is 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in his last seven starts against the Reds while allowing at least 3 earned runs in all 7 starts and 31 earned runs and 6 homers in 38 2/3 innings.  Wainwright has allowed at least one homer in 13 of his last 15 starts against Cincinnati.

Hunter Greene is 1-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 12 starts for the Reds this season.  Greene is 0-2 with a 3.72 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis.

The OVER is 9-1 in Reds last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 13-5 in Reds last 18 games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Reds last nine road games.  The OVER is 15-6-1 in Cardinals last 22 home games.  The OVER is 14-3 in Cardinals last 17 Sunday home games.  St. Louis is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 0.9 or fewer homers per game this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 11 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Rays OVER 8

This is a very low total for a game involving the two most potent offenses in baseball.  The Rangers rank 1st in scoring at 6.41 runs per game while the Rays rank 2nd at 5.82 runs per game.  These two combined for 11 and 12 runs in the first two games of this series, and it should be more of the same today.

It's not like these two starting pitchers are unhittable.  That's especially the case with Texas' Martin Perez, who has a 5.53 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in eight road starts this season, already allowing 10 homers in 42 1/3 innings on the highway.  The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own.

No question Shane McClanahan has good numbers, but the Rangers are hitting .294 and scoring 7.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  The Rays are hitting .287 and scoring 6.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters, so both offenses are in their wheelhouse here.

The OVER is 15-4 in Perez's last 19 day game starts.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 11-3 in Rays last 14 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-135)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have won four straight games to add to their 19-7 run over their last 26 games to improve to 39-25 on the season.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 20 of those 26 games, and 5 runs or more in 17 of them.  14 of the 19 wins have come by multiple runs.

The Detroit Tigers are 0-8 in their last eight games overall and have scored 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games.  It won't get any easier at the plate for them against Zac Gallen, who is 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 13 starts this season and among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young.

The Diamondbacks should stay hot at the plate against Joey Wentz, who is the weakest of Detroit's starters.  Wentz is 1-6 with a 7.49 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in 12 starts this season, allowing 43 earned runs and 11 homers in 51 2/3 innings.

The Diamondbacks are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall.  Detroit is 0-7 in its last seven interleague games.  The Tigers are 0-8 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Rangers/Rays AL No-Brainer on OVER 8

This is a very low total for a game involving the two most potent offenses in baseball.  The Rangers rank 1st in scoring at 6.43 runs per game while the Rays rank 2nd at 5.81 runs per game.  And it's not like these two starting pitchers are unhittable.

Nathan Eovaldi has great numbers, but he has been fortunate to face a soft schedule.  This will be his toughest test yet.  Taj Bradley has a 6.43 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in three home starts this season and this will be his toughest test yet as well.

Texas is 19-9 OVER with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  Texas is 22-8 OVER in its last 30 road games as a favorite of -150 or less.  The OVER is 29-11 in Rays last 40 games vs. a AL starting pitcher with a 2.90 ERA or better.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Mets/Pirates OVER 9

The New York Mets are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have scored 4 runs or more in all five games, while also allowing 6 runs or more in all five games.  That includes 13 runs to the Braves and 14 runs to the Pirates in their last two games.  The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in six of their last eight games overall and the OVER is 6-2 in those eight games.

The forecast is ripe for more scoring with temps in the 80's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Pittsburgh today.  Kodai Senga is 2-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in five road starts this season and has had control issues all year.

Johan Oviedo is 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Pirates.  Oviedo has never been able to figure out the Mets, going 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds have quietly scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 18 games overall and just called up their top prospect. The St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left in St. Louis this afternoon, making conditions ripe for scoring.

Andrew Abbott will be making just his second start of the season for the Reds and is getting too much credit for shutting down the Brewers at home in his first start.  Miles Mikolas is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA in six home starts this season.  Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 15 career starts against the Reds as well.

The OVER is 8-1 in Reds last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 12-5 in Reds last 17 games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Reds last eight road games.  The OVER is 14-6-1 in Cardinals last 21 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +107

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following four consecutive losses.  They last won with ace Marcus Stroman on the mound, and he takes the ball again tonight to stop the bleeding.

Stroman is 6-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has been especially dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs and 15 base runners in 23 innings.

Anthony Desclafini is 4-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three, allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 24 base runners in 15 innings.  Desclafini has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA in seven home starts this season.

The Giants are 8-25 in their last 33 games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 1.050 WHIP or better.  The Cubs are 20-8 in their last 28 Game 1's.  The Giants are 17-45 in their last 62 games vs. a starting pitcher with less than a 1.15 WHIP.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +3.5

The Miami Heat have only lost two consecutive games once in the entire playoffs.  That was when they nearly blew a 3-0 lead to the Celtics, only to really show their resiliency by taking Game 7 in Boston.  They will come through once again with their backs against the wall in Game 4 tonight.

Everything went wrong for the Heat in Game 3 as they shot just 37% as a team while the Nuggets shot 51.2% and got huge games from both Jokic and Murray.  The shots will fall at a much more efficient rate in Game 4, similar to Game 2 when the Heat pulled the upset on the road in Denver.

The Heat are 34-18 SU at home this season while the Nuggets at 24-25 SU on the road.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.  The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on one days' rest.  I trust Spoelstra to make the right adjustments as he has all playoffs.  Bet the Heat in Game 4 Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have quietly scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 17 games overall and just called up their top prospect. The St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season.  The Reds are scoring 5.4 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds for ripe scoring conditions tonight in St. Louis.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery has been a major disappointment for the Cardinals this season.  He is 2-7 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in five home starts.  Montgomery is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against the Reds over the last two seasons, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 19 base runners in 9 1/3 innings

Ben Lively is getting too much respect for what he has done in a small sample size for the Reds this season.  But he did allow 2 homers and 7 base runners in 6 innings against the Cardinals, so they have seen him once recently, which will work in their favor.

The OVER is 15-4 in Cardinals last 19 games after stranding three or fewer base runners in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-1 in Reds last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 11-2 in Reds last 13 Game 1's.  The OVER is 11-5 in Reds last 16 games overall.  The OVER is 13-6-1 in Cardinals last 20 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Dodgers/Phillies NL No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are raking right now scoring 6 or more runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.  The Philadelphia Phillies are also hitting the ball with some authority of late with 10 or more hits in four of their last six games overall.  With these two gas can starting pitchers going tonight, these offenses should easily combine to score 10-plus runs to cash this OVER 9.5 ticket.

Michael Grove is 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs, 4 homers and 32 base runners in 21 innings.  He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez, who is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 38 base runners in 24 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 13-4 in Dodgers last 17 games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Rays OVER 8

This is a very low total for a game involving the two most potent offenses in baseball.  The Rangers rank 1st in scoring at 6.43 runs per game while the Rays rank 2nd at 5.81 runs per game.  And it's not like these two starting pitchers are unhittable.

Andrew Heaney is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Rangers this season.  He allowed 3 runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings in his last start against the Mariners.  Tyler Glasnow is 0-0 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in two starts this season, making his way back from injury so he will be on a pitch count.

The Rays are scoring 6.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  The OVER is 25-8 in Heaney's last 33 night starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs +116

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Angels.  They should not be underdogs to the Angels given their massive advantage on the mound and in motivation.

Drew Smyly is 5-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Cubs.  He'll be opposed by lefty Reid Detmers, who is 0-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.539 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  The Cubs are hitting .289 and scoring 5.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

The Angels are 1-13 in their last 14 games vs. NL starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.25 or better.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games and are starting to heat up at the plate.  The New York Mets have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 12 games overall and are starting to rake as well.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left in Atlanta tonight, making for ripe scoring conditions.

Justin Verlander is past his prime and dealing with injuries already this season.  He is 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA in six starts this season, allowing 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 36 innings.  No question Spencer Strider has been solid, but he has a 5.19 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets and cannot seem to figure them out.

The OVER is 21-7-1 in Mets last 29 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 13-3 in Braves last 16 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 19-8-1 in Braves last 28 home games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Braves last nine games as a home favorite of -175 to -250.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -108

The Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Orioles have only lost three consecutive games once all season and have been a very resilient bunch.  They are 5-1 following two consecutive losses this season.  They haven't been swept in a 3-plus game series all season.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series.  Kyle Bradish is 2-2 with a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts this season for the Orioles and is the better starter here.  Colin Rea is 3-3 with a 4.82 ERA in nine starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 46 2/3 innings.  He is 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA in five home starts, allowing 6 homers in 25 innings.

Baltimore is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Orioles Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Reds OVER 9.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are raking right now scoring 6 or more runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  The Cincinnati Reds have quietly scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 16 games overall and just called up their top prospect.  These teams combined for 17 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2, and it should be more of the same today with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to right inside hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

The Dodgers could cover this total on their own against Graham Ashcraft, who is 3-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in 12 starts thsi season, allowing 46 earned runs and 9 homers in 62 1/3 innings.  Ashcraft is 2-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in six home starts as well, allowing 28 earned runs and 6 homers in 29 2/3 innings.

Clayton Kershaw has been at his worst on the road, going 3-3 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in seven road starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 38 1/3 innings.  Kershaw is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts as well.

The Dodgers are 13-2 OVER as a road favorite of -125 or more this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 22-8-1 in Dodgers last 31 road games.  The OVER is 9-1 in Dodgers road games in day games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-135)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are raking right now scoring 6 or more runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  The Dodgers should stay hot at the plate against Graham Ashcraft, who is 3-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.604 WHIP in 12 starts this season, allowing 46 earned runs and 9 homers in 62 1/3 innings.  Ashcraft is 2-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in six home starts as well, allowing 28 earned runs and 6 homers in 29 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound today with Clayton Kershaw, who is 7-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Kershaw owns the Reds, going 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

The Dodgers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Reds in walk off fashion.  The Dodgers are 94-34 in Kershaw's last 128 day game starts.  Los Angeles is 40-18 in its last 58 games following a loss.  The Dodgers are 80-37 in their last 117 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-126)

The San Francisco Giants won 10-4 in Game 1 over the Colorado Rockies.  It should be more of the same tonight with a win by multiple runs due to their massive advantage on the mound in Game 2.

Ace Logan Webb is 4-6 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Giants.  He is 3-2 with a 1.98 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing just 12 earned runs in 54 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in all seven starts, and 2 earned runs or fewer in six of them.  

Webb is 5-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Rockies as well.  He'll be opposed by Connor Seabold, who is 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 28 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in three home starts as well.

The Giants are 41-18 in the last 58 meetings, including 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Colorado.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The resilient Miami Heat struck again in Game 2.  They came back from double-digits down in the first half and 8 points down entering the 4th quarter to upset the Denver Nuggets 111-108.  They gained home-court advantage with that victory, and now I expect them to protect it at least for Game 3 tonight.

The Heat made a great adjustment by making Nikola Jokic into a scorer.  And when Jokic scores 40-plus points in the playoffs, the Nuggets are 0-3.  So there's something to it.  Making Jokic a scorer instead of a passer keeps everyone else uninvolved and out of sync.  

Jamaal Murray took just 15 shots and nobody else even had double-digit shot attempts while Jokic had 28 and scored 41.  I trust Miami's role players more, who came up clutch in Game 2 with Vincent, Strus and Robinson all having big contributions.  With Jimmy Butler's father struggling with his health, that gives this team even more of a reason to rally around him right now.

The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Wednesday.