Winning Sports Picks

20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5

The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced.  Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets.  Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse.  The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too.  The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.

The Colts have played a much tougher schedule.  And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start.  The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads.  So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.

The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season.  They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense.  And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back.  There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts.  The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.

One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year.  They actually deserved to win that game outright.  They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards.  They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.

The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  

I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers.  They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week.  The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3

You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible.  This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer.  Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets.  He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league.  They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.  

The offense will be a mess with him at the helm.  And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson.  They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.

New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game.  This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL.  The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.

Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory.  His finger looked absolutely fine.  He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt.  He also scored a rushing touchdown.  And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.

This  Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year.  They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers.    And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.

Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road.  The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback.  There's just nothing to like about them right now.  

Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season.  They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record.  But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule.  After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in.  Everything is still in front of them.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

The Ole Miss Rebels are 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Marquette by 6.  And it's clear Marquette is actually pretty good with wins over Illinois and West Virginia already this season as well.  The Rebels have won their three games all by 18 points or more and will be one of the most improved teams in the country after COVID destroyed them last year.

Boise State lost a lot of talent from last year's team and is getting too much respect after having a good season.  The Broncos are 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against Utah Valley State and Temple.  They lost to UC-Irvine 50-58 as 2-point road favorites and St. Bonaventure 61.67 as 3.5-point dogs.

Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in its prevous game.  Take Ole Miss Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +12.5

We have an underrated Nebraska-Omaha team up against an overrated Montana team here Saturday.  Omaha should not be catching double-digits in this showdown that should come right down to the wire.

Omaha only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs and by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs in its last two games coming in.  Montana lost by 37 as 11.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and by 2 as 7-point favorites at North Dakota in its last two games.

Omaha is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points.  Montana is 0-11 ATS in it last 11 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Montana is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

Utah is a one-way team for me right now.  I'm either backing them or passing.  Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season.  The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits.  And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football.  Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.

I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season.  They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State.  I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah.  The Utes definitely have the better quarterback.  I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.

Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though.  Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry.  Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +10

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to get the money this season because they get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and catching double-digits again tonight after covering in a 7-point loss at Milwaukee as a 12.5-point dog last night.

The Celtics will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they are coming off a huge win over the rival Lakers.  This is certainly a letdown spot for them now.  It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Celtics, so they won't have much left in the tank to beat the Thunder, let alone do it by double-digits.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 95 points or less last game.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Celtics are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5

The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.

Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss.  Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all.  They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.  

That makes this a sandwich spot.  The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State.  Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh.  Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it.  This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.

Vanderbilt is the much fresher team.  They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17.  They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.

The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss.  The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -7

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight on the road all by single-digits.  In fact, they have played seven of their last eight games on the road.  But they are back home now where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games with wins by 13 over the Spurs, 13 over the Knicks and 5 over the 76ers.

While both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, it's a better spot for the Pacers than it is the Pelicans.  Injuries have ravaged the short-handed Pelicans this season.  They are just 3-14 SU & 7-10 ATS this season because of it.  They don't boast the depth that the Pacers do, and that will be a factor here.

New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on zero rest.

Plays on any team (Indiana) - off three or more consecutive road losses, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +29.5

Tim Miles is a great head coach and one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  He's already turning San Jose State into a competent program this year.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS with three competitive games as underdogs.

After upsetting CS-Fullerton 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs, San Jose State also covered in a 14-point road loss at Stanford as 18.5-point dogs.  They then nearly upset Cal Baptist in a 1-point loss as 11-point road dogs.  And now they are catching 29.5 points against Texas, which is too much.

Texas came into the season with a ton of hype due to the hiring of Chris Beard from Texas Tech .  But the Longhorns have fallen flat, losing by 12 to Gonzaga as 7.5-point dogs and only beating Northern Colorado by 13 as 21-point favorites in their last two games coming into this one.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after a win by 10 points or more.  The Longhorns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following a win.  Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins returned from their bye and smoked Colorado 44-20 as an 18-point favorite.  Now they will still be fresh and ready to take down their rivals in the USC Trojans, who don't care about this game as much as the Bruins do.  UCLA wants revenge from a gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to the Trojans last year.

USC is a program in turmoil with a lame-duck interim head coach.  Their play on the field has reflected it.  The Trojans are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only victory came in a nail biter against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 41-34 as a 21.5-point favorite.

USC lost 16-31 on the road to Notre Dame as a 7.5-point dog.  They lost 26-42 at home as a 3-point favorite against Utah.  And they also lost 16-31 as a 10-point dog at Arizona State.  So they lost all three games by 15 points or more and weren't competitive.  I don't expect them to be competitive Saturday, either.

USC is without starting QB Kedon Slovis.  Backup Jaxson Dart will get the start, and he just hasn't been as effective this season.  And he won't have the services of top wideout Drake London, who has 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns this season.  The next-best receiver has 41 receptions, 474 yards and one score, so the loss of London is huge.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  USC is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on SMU +11.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are feeling the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff.  They are just surviving and advancing at this point.  And they are overvalued late in the year due to their perfect 10-0 record.  That unbeaten record is in jeopardy this weekend against arguably the best team they have faced yet in the SMU Mustangs.

The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

SMU is looking at this game as its 'National Championship' game.  The Mustangs sit at 8-2 but have a head-to-head loss to Houston, which will likely keep them out of the AAC title game.  They would love nothing more than to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati.

The two losses by SMU came by 3 and 7 points this season.  They are coming off a 55-28 win over UCF as a 7-point favorite, so they have momentum.  And they have the offense to give Cincinnati a run for its money.  No question, this is the best offense the Bearcats will have faced this season.

The Mustangs are putting up 41.6 points and 498.8 yards per game this season.  Their defense has been respectable in allowing 25.9 points per game.  There's a chance the Bearcats will be without leading rusher Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season.  He missed last week's game against USF and is questionable for this one.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5

There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point.  The damage has already been done.  They have lost five straight games coming in.  They followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as a 31-point favorite against Kansas last week.

I just don't see them getting back up off the mat to take the long road trip to West Virginia.  There is so much turmoil in this program right now.  I think it's best we keep fading them for these last two games.  And I like the spot for West Virginia, which needs to more wins to make a bowl and plays Kansas next week.

It's always a tough trip for this Big 12 teams going all the way out to West Virginia.  Just ask Iowa State a few weeks ago when the Mountaineers upset them.  And you know West Virginia has had this game circled after coming up just short at Texas last year in a 17-13 loss.  They were driving late in the final seconds of that game to go in for the game-winning score, but the refs didn't throw an obvious pass interference penalty in the end zone that likely would have given them the win.  I know because I had West Virginia in that game as they covered as 6.5-point dogs.

West Virginia's last two losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State were misleading.  They held Oklahoma State to just 285 yards.  They held Kansas State to just 299 yards.  They still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  And their offense should come to life like it did against Iowa State 3 weeks ago when they had 492 yards against a very good Iowa State defense.

This Texas defense is soft as butter.  The Longhorns just allowed 57 points to Kansas and have now allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight.  They are giving up 38.1 points per game in conference play.

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.  The Mountaineers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.  Whether or not Texas has quit, I expect the Mountaineers to win and cover at home Saturday as I know they will show up for this game.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +19.5

Michigan State finally gets its chance to earn some respect with a showdown with Ohio State this weekend.  No question the Spartans feel disrespected being this big of underdogs.  And I think this line is out of hand this weekend.

Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season.  The Spartans are loaded with a balanced offense that averages 34.6 points per game while rushing for 198 yards per game and throwing for 252 yards per game.  I just don't see Ohio State being able to slow them down enough to cover this large number.

I do expect the Spartans to hold their own defensively, too.  The Buckeyes are also balanced, but they aren't going to be able to run the football with much consistency on a Michigan State defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.

We've seen Ohio State pushed by Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska, arguably the three best teams they have faced.  The Buckeyes lost outright to Oregon at home and only beat both Penn State and Nebraska by 9 points each.  Michigan State is in the same ballpark as those three teams if not better than them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +13.5

This game means nothing to Kent State.  The Golden Flashes play Miami Ohio next week for a trip to the MAC Championship Game win or lose.  They have to beat Miami Ohio either way.  So I foresee them looking ahead to that game, and likely not trying to hard to beat Akron this weekend.

Akron continues to battle even without its head coach.  The Zips have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Bowling Green, lost to Miami Ohio by 13 as 20-point dogs, lost to Ball State by 6 as 20-point dogs, and lost to Western Michigan by 5 as 26-point dogs.  Now they are catching too many points again this weekend.

The key to Akron's resurgence has been QB Zach Gibson.  He has provided a huge spark for the offense, completing 69.9% of his passes for 1,151 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been huge as he has been great at scrambling and finding his underrated weapons on the outside.

Gibson should continue his great play against a terrible Kent State defense that allows 36.8 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  That against opposing offenses that average just 26.1 points per game, 387 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So the Golden Flashes are allowing 10.7 points per game, 110 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents have averaged on the season.

Plays against any team (Kent State) - with a horrible scoring defense that allows 35 points per game or more, after two straight games where 70 combined points or more were scored are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Akron Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona +15.5

The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-9 SU this season.  But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.  Now they have a great shot to get their 2nd win against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington State Friday night.

Arizona State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs.  And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference.  If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.

In fact, the Wildcats have only been outgained by more than 85 yards just once in their last eight games overall.  That was the 139 yards they were outgained by Utah, which isn't that bad.  In their last eight games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 26.8 yards per game on average.  They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.

This is a terrible spot for Washington State.  They just played Oregon last week, and now they have the Apple Cup on deck next week against Washington.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Cougars.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they were Oregon, and they won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they will be Washington.  I think that factor will have them winning this game by two touchdowns or less and possibly losing outright.

When you look at the numbers, these are very evenly-matched teams.  Arizona is only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  Washington State is getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season.  The Wildcats have a sneaky good defense that gives up just 367.3 yards per game.  The Cougars give up 397.6 yards per game.

Washington State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Washington State has only been favored three times this season and one was a 1.5-point favorite in a 3-point win against Stanford.  They actually lost outright as an 18-point favorite to Utah State, too.  Bet Arizona Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -13.5

The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and a legit contender.  They just beat a very good Saint Louis team handily 90-74 as 10.5-point favorites.  And now they take a big step down in competition here against Western Kentucky and should have no problem covering this 13.5-point spread at home.

Western Kentucky lost most of their studs from lsat year.  The result has been a 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season.  The Hilltoppers barely survived in a 79-74 home win over Alabama State as a 25.5-point favorite.  That Alabama State team is now 0-5.

The Hilltoppers went on to get upset 69-73 as 3-point favorites against a rebuilding Minnesota team.  Then they lost 64-75 to South Carolina as 1-point underdogs.  That's also a rebounding South Carolina team.  This is a huge step up in competition for the Hilltoppers tonight.

The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Memphis is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Memphis Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Brooklyn Nets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will also be their 8th game in 13 days.  This team is short-handed right now without Kyrie Irving, Paul Millsap and Joe Harris.  There's just too much on Kevin Durant and James Harden's shoulders, especially given the tough rest spot.

I expect the Magic to hang around for four quarters in this one.  They want revenge from a home loss to the Nets just over a week ago on November 10th.  And they are the much fresher team playing just their 6th game in 12 days.  They have recent upset wins over the Knicks as 11.5-point dogs and the Jazz as 11-point dogs as well, so they are starting to play better.

The Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Magic are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Middle Tennessee +11

Middle Tennessee is off to an impressive 3-0 start this season.  The Blue Raiders crushed their first two opponents by 39 and 20 points.  Then they upset a very good Winthrop team 76-65 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they will hang with Stephen F. Austin tonight.

Stephen F. Austin is rebuilding this season.  They were not impressive at all in their first two games that didn't have lines.  They beat LSU-Alexandria by 9 and Mary Hardin-Baylor by 13.  Then they were crushed 71-83 as 2-point home underdogs to South Dakota State.  So that's three straight poor performances, and they have no business laying 11 points to the Blue Raiders tonight.

Plays on underdogs (Middle Tennessee) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a team that had a losing record last season are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 13-point 4th quarter comeback win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Now they have to travel to Detroit and will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.

The Pistons are the fresher team and had yesterday off following a 97-89 upset win over Indiana at home on Wednesday.  They also upset Houston on the road and Toronto on the road in winning three of their last five games overall.  They are playing their best basketball of the season and will be highly motivated to welcome the team with the best record in the NBA to Detroit in the Warriors.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL.  I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.

Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week.  And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results.  A team is never as good or bad as they played last week.  And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.

These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams.  And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one.  Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas.  And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.  

This is just how the NFL works.  You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value.  The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4.  So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.

Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points.  I think this game is decided by one score either way.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +2.5

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They won't have much left in the tank for the San Antonio Spurs.

We'll get a fresh, motivated effort from the Spurs tonight coming off three straight losses and having yesterday off.  It should be enough to win this game outright against the Timberwolves, who had gone 1-8 SU in their previous nine games prior to beating the Kings last night.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies, who have lost three of their last four coming in.  But they are fully healthy now for basically the first time all season, and it showed in their 136-102 win over the Rockets last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go against the Clippers tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  But the injuries are mounting up for the Clippers now.  They are without Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris and Justise Winslow, and they could be without Terrance Mann, who is questionable.  Take the Grizzlies Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Alabama State +28

Alabama State is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS against some quality competition.  They lost by 5 at Western Kentucky as 25.5-point dogs, by 19 at Vanderbilt as 25.5-point dogs, but 18 at Missouri State as 23.5-point dogs and by 8 at Iowa State as 19-point dogs.

Now Alabama State is catching a whopping 28 points to Iowa, which isn't nearly as good as they were last season.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 against some very weak competition in Longwood, Missouri-KC and NC Central.  And they only beat NC Central by 17 as 29.5-point favorites last time out.  I can't foresee them beating Alabama State by more than 28 points tonight.  Roll with Alabama State Thursday.

15* Ohio State/Xavier FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2

After two sub-par performances to open the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes played up to their potential in an 89-58 win as a 16-point favorite over Bowling Green last time out.  They are the better of these two teams with Xavier, and that will show tonight as they get the win and cover.

Xavier hasn't looked great itself.  The Musketeers only beat Niagara 63-60 as a 17-point favorite before topping Kent State 73-59 as an 8.5-point favorite.  But they were in a dog fight with Kent State until the final minutes.

That 3-point win over Niagara gives these teams a common opponent.  Ohio State beat Niagara by 10.  Every matchup is different, but I don't see how Xavier can be trusted to score much against Ohio State considering they shot just 39% overall and 25% from 3-point range against Niagara and Kent State.  Ohio State is shooting 49.4% overall and 36.1% from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Musketeers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Ohio State Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +2.5

It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Sacramento Kings, who are clearly a better team than the Minnesota Timberwolves and should not be underdogs here.  The Kings had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games before throttling the Pistons 129-107 last time out.  But three losses came by 5 points or less and against some solid competition.

Now the Kings get another step down in competition here against the Timberwolves, who are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Five of those losses came by double-digits as they have rarely even been competitive.  And while the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.

The Kings rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Timberwolves rank 26th this season.  So while the Timberwolves are slightly ahead in defensive efficiency, the gap on offense more than makes up for it.  Minnesota just has no chemistry on the offensive end, and Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most overrated players in the league because they don't know how to use him properly.  He disappears way too often.

The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Sacramento is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog.  Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Timberwolves are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +13

Northern Iowa was picked to finish 2nd in the strong Missouri Valley entering the season.  You can see why most liked this team as they returned everyone from last year and all five starters.  But they were without a couple starters when they were upset by Nicholls State and Vermont to open the season.

Those guys returned to help the Panthers beat Dubuque 95-58 last time out.  And now the Panthers are at full strength and a sleeper going into Arkansas looking to give the Razorbacks a run for them money.  Northern Iowa will be looking to right some wrongs in the early going with this matchup with a Top 25 opponent.

Arkansas is due for some regression this year.  The Razorbacks lost three starters and three of their top four scorers in Moses Moody (16.8 PPG), Justin Smith (13.6 PPG) and Jalen Tate (11.0 PPG) from last year's 25-7 team.  It's no wonder they failed to cover against weak competition to open the season, only beating Mercer 74-61 as a 19-point favorite and Gardner Webb 86-69 as a 19.5-point favorite.  Northern Iowa is better than both those teams and it's not close.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northern Iowa) - a team that had a losing record last season, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 218

Two of the fastest teams square off tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Milwaukee Bucks and a shootout should be the result.  The Lakers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, while the Bucks rank 8th.

The Lakers play even faster when LeBron James is out just as he has been for a few weeks now.  Russell Westbrook likes to get up and down.  It has hurt the Lakers defensively as they give up 105.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks have been even worse on the defensive end, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency at 106.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.  But their offense gets a boost tonight with the return of Khris Middleton following a two-week absence due to COVID.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIU/Buffalo ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Northern Illinois PK

Northern Illinois can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win over Buffalo tonight.  They will be max motivated and not want to wait until next week against a very good Western Michigan team to clinch.  They will handle their business tonight against Buffalo.

This Buffalo team has been overvalued all season based on what they did last year when they were the best team in the MAC during the regular season.  But they lost their coach and many of their best players.  The result has been a disappointing 4-6 season where they aren't likely to make a bowl game because they would have to win out against NIU and at Ball State to get there.

And it looks like the Bulls have packed it in in recent weeks.  After getting upset 44-56 as a 13.5-point home favorite against a Bowling Green team that is getting crushed by everyone, they went on to lose 18-45 at Miami Ohio last week.  I don't understand why the Bulls are getting so much respect from oddsmakers after those two performances this week, and I'll gladly take advantage and fade them.

This is a great matchup for Northern Illinois.  The Huskies are second in the MAC in rushing offense at 220 yards per game.  They have run the ball nearly twice as many times (459 attempts) as they have thrown (270 attempts) this season.  Well, the Bulls have given up 218.3 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry in conference games this season.  And while Buffalo is tops in the MAC with 33 sacks, that won't be a factor here because Northern Illinois has surrendered just 7 sacks all season and doesn't throw much.  When they do, they have a dual-threat QB in Rocky Lombardi who can elude the rush.

The Huskies are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 road games.  Northern Illinois is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Fullerton -3

CS-Fullerton will be highly motivated for a victory after two narrow road losses to Santa Clara (77-84) and San Jose State (76-78) to open the season.  Now they are home for the first time and those two losses were against two teams that I think are underrated this season.

Fullerton actually takes a step down in class here against George Washington in my opinion.  The Colonials are 1-2 this season and just lost by 20 at Cal San Diego as a 1-point favorite.  Their lone win came against St. Francis-PA 75-72 as a 7-point home favorite.  It's a rebuilding year for GW off a 5-12 season and losing three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Jamison Battle (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG).

I expect CS-Fullerton to be one of the most improved teams in the country and compete for a Big West title.  They went just 5-9 in the Big West last year but had three losses by a combined seven points.  There led the conference in scoring last year and return four starters who combined for 42.8 points per game last season, plus 6th man Dante Maddox Jr. (11.9 PPG).

Dante Maddox Jr (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Tre Maddox Jr. (11.0 PPG), Vincent Lee (15.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.5 PPG) are all back and off to solid starts with those being their season averages through two games.  They added in Tennessee transfer E.J. Anosike (15.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG), who has been their best player already.  And fellow newcomer Damari Milstead (10.0 PPG) is making a big impact already.

George Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Colonials are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Georgia Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Titans while we still can.  Roll with CS-Fullerton Tuesday.

15* Saints Louis/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Saint Louis +10.5

I love what Travis Ford is building at Saint Louis.  They went 14-7 and made the NIT last year despite a COVID-ravaged season and brought back three starters from that team.  They also brought in several top transfers.

The Billikens are off to a dominant 3-0 start this season, covering as a 22-point favorite in a 96-61 win over Central Arkansas, beating Harris Stowe 127-54, and throttling Eastern Illinois 86-44 as a 21-point favorite.

Gibson Jimmerson (18.7 PPG), Yuri Collins (9.7 PPG, 9.3 APG), Francis Okoro (11.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Marten Linssen (11.7 PPG) are all off to strong starts this season and back from last year's team.  Memphis transfer Jordan Nesbitt (13.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) has fit in nicely as well.

Memphis is getting a lot of hype again this season with a Top 25 ranking and plenty of big-name recruits and talent.  But Penny Hardaway has been a disappointment.  And I don't know how they can be trusted to lay double-digits here against a team the quality of Saint Louis.

Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.  Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a home win where it scored 85 points or more.  The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent shooting teams that make 52% or better.  The Billikens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Saint Louis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog overall.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Saint Louis Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn -3

It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden State Warriors after going 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS to open the season.  Now they are only catching 3 points from the Brooklyn Nets tonight, a legit title contender.  And the Warriors will be without Draymond Green, so they won't be able to defend Durant and Harden very well without him.

The Nets are quietly playing great themselves.  They have gone 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with all eight wins by 6 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Durant and Harden are really clicking right now, and you can bet Durant wants to have a big game against his former team here.

The Nets won both meetings with the Warriors in blowout fashion last year.  They won 125-99 at home and 134-117 on the road.  I think it's more of the same here, especially since the Warriors don't have their defensive stalwart in Green.  The Nets are now 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.

Brooklyn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive non-conference games.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Pacific Division opponents.  The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +7.5

Georgia State is picked to win the Sun Belt this season for good reason.  They return all five starters from a team that went 16-6 last year.  And all five starters averaged at least 10.1 points per game, so they are the definition of team basketball.

The Panthers are off to a great start winning their opener 97-37 over Brewton-Parker and 83-64 over Northeastern as a 6.5-point favorite.  They have been much more impressive than Richmond, which only beat lowly NC Central 70-60 as a 26-point favorite and lost outright to Utah State 74-85 as a 6.5-point favorite.  Based off those results, there's no way Richmond should be a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup.

Richmond is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Georgia State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Bet Georgia State Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +7

Don't look now but despite being 3-7, the Ohio Bobcats have a chance to win the MAC East.  They are just one game behind both Miami Ohio and Kent State and actually hold the tiebreaker over the Redhawks.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are flying under the radar.

Indeed, the Bobcats are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all three losses coming by 7 points or less.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over Miami Ohio 35-33 as 7-point underdogs and Eastern Michigan 34-26 as 6-point dogs.  Now this is a huge game on Senior Night at home against Toledo, and I think we get another big effort from them in a game they can certainly win outright.

Toledo sits at 5-5 on the season and was officially eliminated from MAC West title contention last week when Northern Illinois beat Ball State to get to 5-1 in the conference, while Toledo sits at 3-3.  The Huskies already beat the Rockets, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

I question Toledo's motivation the rest of the way now that they have been eliminated from the MAC title picture.  Yes, they want to get bowl eligible bowl with another win, but they know they have lowly Akron on deck at home next week to accomplish that.

Toledo is getting way too much respect off its 49-17 win over lowly Bowling Green last week.  Remember, the Rockets had gone 1-3 SU in their previous four games with upset losses to Northern Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite, Central Michigan as a 5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan as a 9-point favorite.  They cannot be trusted to go on the road and lay 7 points her against this surging Ohio team with more to play for.

The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Toledo is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.  The Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Ohio Tuesday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers.  The entire world, including myself, were on them last week.  I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment.  But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.

Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.  Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.

Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week.  They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either.  And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.  The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday.  He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay.  Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.

The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games.  They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense.  Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams.  The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -2

Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top.  Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.

The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG).  Williams had 32 pionts, Segu 15 and Mballa 13 in their 76-88 loss at No. 6 ranked Michigan.

North Texas is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.  The Mean Green are picked to finish 5th in lowly Conference USA.  They lose three starters from last year and all three averaged in double figures scoring, so the losses are huge.  They don't return anyone that averages more than 10 points per game.

Buffalo is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Take Buffalo Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -3

The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight and five of their last six games overall against a tough schedule.  They also want revenge from a 98-111 road loss to these Indiana Pacers on November 3rd earlier this month.

The Knicks come in on two days' rest and are fully healthy, so expect a big effort from them tonight.  And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Pacers after going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Pacers will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days as well.

New York is 36-18 ATS in its last 54 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days' rest.  New York is 30-9 ATS in its last 38 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Knicks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Pacers.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Belmont -6

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.

The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.  This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons. 

I backed Belmont as a 14-point favorite in its 81-43 home win over Evansville bouncing back from that loss to Ohio.  And I'm on the Bruins again tonight against Furman, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off it 80-72 upset win at Louisville, a Louisville team that is down this year.

The Paladins lost arguably their two best players from last year's team that went 16-9.  Clay Mounce (13.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is gone, as is Noah Gurley (15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG), who transferred to Alabama.  They do have three returning starters but don't return any key players on their bench.

Belmont is 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two straight games with 19 or more assists.  Furman is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Paladins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Furman is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -2.5

The Boston Celtics will be out for revenge from a 91-89 road loss at Cleveland last time out on Saturday.  They blew a 52-38 halftime lead in that game.  Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to face the Cavaliers in Cleveland again on Monday.

This Cleveland team has been a big money maker in the early going and is starting to get a lot of respect because of it.  But they can't continue playing that well without their best player in Collin Sexton, plus being without another of their best players in Lauri Markkanen.  I don't expect this young team to handle success very well tonight.

The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They have four wins all by 9 points or more over the Bucks, Raptors, Heat and Magic during this stretch.  Their two losses came by 3 and 2 points, and keep in mind they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back against Cleveland last time out in a tough spot.  They'll have their revenge tonight.  Take the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

What more do the Oklahoma City Thunder have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They are nearly double-digit underdogs again today despite going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with only one loss by more than 8 points, which came against the Warriors on the road.  The Warriors are playing better than anyone in the NBA to this point.

The Thunder pulled two outright upsets over the Lakers as 10.5 and 6-point dogs.  They pulled outright upsets over the Spurs, Pelicans and Kings as well.  And they only lost by 5 on the road to the Clippers as 12.5-point dogs to highlight some of their performances during this stretch.

Now they will really get up for this game with the Brooklyn Nets and Kevin Durant coming to down to visit his former team.  The Nets will be without Paul Millsap and just don't have much help outside Durant and Harden, which is why they are tough to trust to go on the road and beat anyone by double-digits.

The Thunder are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +9

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 111-123 road loss to the Suns on November 4th earlier this month.  They blew a 5-point halftime lead in that contest and should have covered as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they come back as 9-point home dogs in the rematch.

The Rockets are fully healthy and ready to give Phoenix a run for its money tonight.  Meanwhile, the Suns are going to be without DeAndre Ayton.  And it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after they have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight covers against a very soft schedule.

All three meetings between the Suns and Rockets last season were decided by 6 points or less despite the Suns being favored by 14, 13 and 5.5 points.  And that first meeting this season was closer than the final score would indicate.  I just think it's asking too much of the Suns to go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us tonight against the revenge-minded Rockets.  Roll with the Rockets Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1.  And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.

The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value.  The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites.  They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers.  And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green.  Colt McCoy had a career game.

I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat.  And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable.  Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.

This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum.  But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover.  Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500.  And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.

The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week.  Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.

Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game.  They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play.  They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold.  The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.

This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals.  They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans.  They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall.  Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week.  They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six.  Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.

Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites.  Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -2

It's a good time to 'buy low' on South Dakota State after their 88-104 loss at Alabama on Saturday.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss.  Look for them to dominate Stephen F. Austin like they dominated Bradley in an 81-65 win as a 9-point favorite in their opener.

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

Stephen F. Austin is tabbed 5th in the preseason WAC predictions.  While they return four starters, they do lose one of their best players in Cameron Johnson (15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  And the first two games by SF Austin were ugly wins against teams they should have blown out, which is a bad sign of things to come.  They only beat LSU-Alexandria 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63.  Neither of those games even had betting lines.

The Jackrabbits are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  South Dakota State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Jackrabbits are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Lumberjacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Stephen F. Austin is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Take South Dakota State Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season.  They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.

Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least.  They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to.  They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.

Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season.  The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints.  They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.

That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense.  They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week.  Chris Godwin is also questionable.  So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season.  Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Washington Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5

The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week.  It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort.  Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction.  I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.

I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs.    And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.

The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful.  But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run.  The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game.  They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.  New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.

Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week.  I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well.  The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.    

The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams.  This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.

Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season.  They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets.  The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.  

New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

20* FSU/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -1

Leonard Hamilton is enjoying his best run in his 19 years at Florida State.  The Seminoles don't rebuild, they reload because he's a tremendous recruiter.  And he has taken advantage of the transfer portal again this season to reload.

The Seminoles are off to a great start this season with their 105-70 win over Pennsylvania as a 19.5-point favorite, covering by 15.5 points.  Florida only beat Elon 74-61 as a 19-point favorite, failing to cover by 6 points.  And the Gators lost two players to the NBA in the offseason and are coming off a disappointing 15-10 season as it is.

Florida State simply owns Florida.  The Seminoles have gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Gators.  They have also won seven in a row straight up in this series with the last four coming by 12, 12, 21 and 17 points.  Bet Florida State Sunday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 3rd meeting between the Timberwolves and Clippers since November 3rd, a span of just 11 days.  They know how to defend one another, and defense will win out in this 3rd meeting tonight.

After a shootout in their first meeting that saw the Clippers shoot 60.3% overall and 58.3% from 3-point range, they came back to win 104-84 in the rematch for just 188 combined points.  And I think we see a similar low scoring game here, especially after the Timberwolves just beat the Lakers 107-83 last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The reason the Clippers are playing so well this season is because they have bought in defensively.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are also improved on defense, ranking 15th at 104.7 points per 100 possessions.  Both teams are below average in offensive efficiency, especially the Timberwolves who rank 25th.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Timberwolves last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Los Angeles.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Clippers) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 37-13 (74%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +7.5

Chris Beard was a great hire at Texas and one of my favorite head coaches in the country.  I'll gladly back Beard and the Longhorns here against overrated Gonzaga tonight.  The Longhorns were impressive in their 92-48 win over Houston Baptist in their opener, covering as 37.5-point favorites.

Texas welcomes back Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Courtney Ramsey (12.2 PPG) this year.  They brought in some unbelievable transfers.  Timmy Allen averaged 17.2 PPG at Utah last year, Marcus Carr had four 30-point games at Minnesota last year, Tre Mitchell averaged 18.8 PPG at UMass last year and Christian Bishop averaged 11.0 PPG at Creighton last year.  All six played significant roles in the opener with Ramey leading the way with 14 points, followed by Jones (11), Carr (10), Bishop (10), Mitchell (10) and Allen (8).

Gonzaga failed to cover as a 39.5-point favorite in a 34-point win over Dixie State in the opener.  With their No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  That's especially the case after losing three starters and studs from last year's team in Corey Kispert (18.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG), Jalen Suggs (14.4 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Joel Ayayi (12.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG).  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +12.5

The firing of Gary Patterson lit a fire under the TCU Horned Frogs.  It also helped that they one of the best interim head coaches possible in Jerry Kill.  He guided the Horned Frogs to a 30-28 upset win over Baylor as 7.5-point underdogs last week.  And I think they give a big effort again this week against Oklahoma State.

The win over Baylor wasn't fluky at all.  The Horned Frogs racked up 562 total yards and held the Bears to just 393 yards, outgaining them by 169 yards.  QB Chandler Morris went 29-of-41 for 461 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score.  Look out for him here down the stretch in the Big 12 after that performance.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Oklahoma State after opening 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and massively exceeding expectations.  Now they are laying double-digits here against TCU when they shouldn't be.  While the Cowboys have a great defense, their offense leaves a lot to be desired and makes it difficult to cover these kinds of numbers.  

They average just 28.8 points per game, 382.4 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  To compare, TCU is putting up 31.3 points, 450.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  They are at a disadvantage on defense, but they can more than make up for it on offense this week.

Plays on any team (TCU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more with 4 or more starters returning than their opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with TCU Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers have finally started to play up to their potential now that they have gotten healthy.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with both losses coming on the road to Portland by 4 and Denver by 3.

The Pacers have four impressive wins during this stretch.  They beat the Spurs by 13 as 3-point home favorites, upset the Knicks by 13 as 1-point home underdogs, upset the Kings by 3 as 2.5-point road dogs, and upset the Jazz by 11 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Now I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers at home tonight.

The 76ers went on a great run in going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch when mostly healthy.  But they have been overvalued since, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Knicks by 7, Bucks by 9 and Raptors by 6.  They remain without Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle.  The key is being without Embiid, who is an MVP candidate and irreplaceable on their team.

The Pacers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a win as a road underdog of 6 points or more.  The 76ers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday BLOWOUT on Belmont -13.5

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.

The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.  This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons.  They'll also be extra motivated off that loss to Ohio.

Look for the Bruins to make easy work of a mediocre Evansville team that lost by 22 at Cincinnati in their opener.  Belmont is better than Cincinnati.  This is an Evansville team that went 9-16 last year.  I'm not a fan of head coach Todd Lickliter, who is now 9-29 in his two seasons at the helm of the Purple Aces.

Belmont is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following an ATS loss.  The Bruins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games overall.  The Purple Aces are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs.  Evansville is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Belmont Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +20.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Georgia Bulldogs due to being 9-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That record and ranking has them overvalued as the betting public continues to back them and push these spreads higher than they should be down the stretch.  Missouri covered against them last week, and I expect Tennessee to cover this 20.5-point spread this week.

This looks like Georgia's toughest test of the season to date.  Tennessee is no joke.  The Volunteers are 5-4 this season with losses to Pitt by 7 and Ole Miss by 5.  They did lose by more to Florida and Alabama, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate.  And I think they can take Georgia to the wire this week.

Tennessee boasts one of the best offenses in the country in averaging 38.2 points, 457.1 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They are averaging 8.6 points, 77 yards and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow on the season.  And their defense is better than it gets credit for, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play.

The key here is Tennessee's defense has been good at stopping the run.  They give up just 3.8 yards per carry this season.  That should help them slow down a Georgia rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will keep them in this game for four quarters, and Georgia hasn't seen an offense this good all season, especially not one that plays at the kind of pace that Tennessee does.  I expect the Bulldogs to give up their largest point total of the season.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Troy +7

I love the spot for the Troy Trojans this week.  They sit at 5-4 and with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility.  They are also just one game back in the Sun Belt East division and very much alive to win the conference title.  That makes this kind of their 'National Championship' game this weekend.

Meanwhile, it's just another game for Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 8-1 this season and 6-0 in Sun Belt play.  They just clinched the West Division title with their 21-17 win over Georgia State last week.  Second place is just 2-3 in the division as it's by far the weaker of the two divisions.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Louisiana is nowhere near as good as its 8-1 record, either.  The Rajin' Cajuns have won so many close games this year.  They beat Nicholls State by 3 as 26-point favorites, Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12-point favorites, Arkansas State by 1 as 17-point favorites and Georgia State by 4 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's five wins against five bad teams all by one score.  I think this game will be decided by one score, too.

Troy has a tendency of playing in close games, too.  Five of the Trojans' nine games have been decided by one score.  Eight of their nine games have been decided by 13 points or less with the lone exception behind their 55-3 win over Southern in the opener.

Troy has a great defense that keeps it in games.  The Trojans give up just 21.8 points per game, 316.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  The key to stopping Louisiana is stopping their rushing attack that averages 204 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Well, Troy has the antidote with a run defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Trojans are 3-1 at home this season.  They showed they could play with the big boys in this conference as they went on the road and only lost to Coastal Carolina 28-35 as 17-point underdogs.  And now they'll give the Rajin' Cajuns a run for their money this weekend.  Take Troy Saturday.

15* Miami/Florida State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

The Miami Hurricanes are rolling offensive right now behind freshman sensation quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.  They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games behind Van Dyke.  He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,877 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Their offense has also gone for 420 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.

Florida State got good news this week with the return of QB Jordan Travis after he sat out last game against NC State.  Travis is completing 62.9% of his passes with an 11-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 340 yards and four scores and his dual-threat ability makes this FSU offense much more dynamic.

Both defenses have been disappointing this season and the offenses should steal the show in this rivalry game.  The Seminoles allow 27.0 points per game this season against a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  This Miami offense may be the best they've seen all season.  The Hurricanes allow 30.4 points and 405.3 yards per game on the season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Miami's last six games overall with combined scores of 58 or more points in all six games and 61 or more points in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +52

Alabama always gets a cupcake out of conference opponent late in the year.  And I almost always fade them in this spot.  I'm going to do it again this year with New Mexico State this week.

Alabama just played a huge rivalry game with LSU last week and struggled to a 20-14 victory.  Now they got Arkansas on deck next week.  They won't be looking to run up the score on New Mexico State as they always seem to take it easy on these opponents that are just looking for a paycheck.

New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They have just one win this season but their record has them undervalued.  That's why they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 27 points this season.

I had a really bad beat on the Aggies last week.  They were getting 18.5 points and were up 13-7 on Utah State at halftime.  But they got outscored 26-0 in the 2nd half and failed to cover by 3.5 points.  They squandered several opportunities deep in Utah State territory.  They were only outgained by 110 yards.

In fact, they have only been outgained by more than 110 yards just once in their past eight games.  They have been competitive in the stats due to an offense that has produced at least 345 yards in 8 straight games.  And this offense is capable of putting up a couple scores on this Alabama defense to stay within the number.  And I like that the Aggies are still fresh after having a bye prior to that Utah State game.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games against bad defensive teams that allow 450 or more total yards per game.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  Give me the Aggies and all these points against an Alabama team that will be looking to play backups and burn clock in the 2nd half.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Baylor FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma Sooners.  They are a fraudulent 9-0 this season with five wins coming by one score.  I think there's a good chance this game is decided by a single score, so there's value in getting the Baylor Bears catching 6 points at home Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Baylor after their 28-30 upset home loss to TCU.  I don't think they took TCU seriously because they had just fired their head coach leading into that game.  And the Bears couldn't help but look ahead to this game against Oklahoma, and it costs them.  Now this is their 'National Championship' and we should get an 'A' effort from the Bears this week.

No question the Bears have the numbers of an elite team.  They average 36.3 points, 457.4 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play on offense.  They give up 20.6 points per game, 364.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense.  They outscore their opponents by 15.7 points per game, outgain them by 93.6 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

When you compare those numbers to Oklahoma, they are very similar and this line should be close to a PK with perhaps Baylor actually favored.  Oklahoma outgain opponents by 95.4 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play.  The Sooners outscore their opponents by 18.7 points per game.  And keep in mind Baylor has played the tougher schedule up to this point having already played Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Oklahoma still has to play the three other best teams in the conference in Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State the next three weeks.

Plays on home teams (Baylor) - a good rushing team (190-230 RYPG) against an average rushing team (140-190 RYPG) after 7-plus games, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  Baylor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Sooners.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +7

The Indiana Hoosiers came into the season ranked in the Top 25.  They have fallen flat on their faces and currently sit at 2-7 on the season after losing 29-7 to Michigan last week.  The Hoosiers now won't be going bowling, and I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Rutgers is highly motivated to get to a bowl game.  They sit at 4-5 on the season and close with Maryland at home.  This is a very winnable game for them and I think they'll be 'all in' here to get it.  Their 'A' effort should be good enough to cover this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.

Indiana has been held to 0, 7, 7 and 15 points in four of its last five games.  The Hoosiers don't have the offense to get margin, so asking them to cover this 7-point spread is asking a lot.  Rutgers has a very good defense that can hold this Indiana offense in check as well.  

The Scarlet Knights allow 24.9 points per game on the season, while the Hoosiers give up 31.3 points per game.  Rutgers scores 21.3 points per game while Indiana scores 20.3 points per game.  So when you look at the numbers, it's clear Rutgers is the better team this season.  They should not be catching nearly this many points, if any points at all, especially given the favorable motivational situation for them compared to the Hoosiers.

The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Greg Schiano is 29-13 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  Schiano is 16-2 ATS in his last 18 road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* Villanova/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Villanova +4

It's a good time to 'sell high' on UCLA early in the season after their miraculous run to the Final Four last season.  They were lucky to even make the tournament, and needed an unlikely comeback against Michigan State in the First Four just to advantage.  They rode that momentum all the way to the Final Four.

But now the Bruins come into the season as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  And they already covered in a 95-58 win over lowly CS-Bakersfield as a 23-point favorites.  But now they come back as 4-point favorites against Villanova despite being without one of their best post players on Cody Riley (10.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) last year.

I think Villanova is the legitimate of the Top 5 teams here as they are ranked 4th.  The Wildcats return four starters from last season and get back Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) from injury.  They also bring back Justin Moore (12.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG), Caleb Daniels (9.6 PPG) and Jermaine Samuels (12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG).

All four played big roles in their 91-51 win as a 25.5-point favorite over Mount St. Mary's in their opener.  Moore had 27 points, Samuels 17, Gillespie 13 and Daniels 6.  They also got 17 points from Brandon Slater, a key returnee off the bench who drilled five 3-pointers as the Wildcats shot 16-of-30 from beyond the arc.  They have one of the best backcourts in the country, per usual, and it will likely lead them to an outright win at UCLA tonight.  Roll with Villanova Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 224

The Timberwolves and Lakers are OVER teams right now.  The Lakers rank 1st in the NBA in pace while the Timberwolves rank 9th in pace.  And Minnesota plays at an even faster pace when De'Angelo Russell is in the lineup, while the Lakers play at a faster pace without LeBron James.

Russell has played the last two games for the Timberwolves and it's no surprise both have been shootouts that went OVER the total.  They lost 118-125 at Memphis for 243 combined points and 110-123 at Golden State for 233 combined points.

The Lakers have played in two straight shootouts without LeBron.  They won 126-123 over Charlotte for 249 combined points and 120-117 over Miami for 237 combined points.  The last time these teams met the Lakers won 137-121 for 258 combined points in their final meeting last season.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs are playing up to their potential of late in going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And I love the spot for them tonight playing with double-revenge against the Dallas Mavericks after losing each of the first two meetings this season.

Indeed, the Spurs lost 99-104 on the road and 108-109 at home in the two meetings, which both went down to the wire.  They should not be underdogs considering they will be the more motivated team, and they are better than their 4-7 record would suggest as they are actually outscoring opponents by 2.1 points per game on the season.

Conversely, Dallas isn't as good as its 7-4 record would suggest.  The Mavericks have actually been outscored by 3.0 points per game on the season, so they are very fortunate to have that record.  I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach, and I don't like the fact that the Mavericks have to rely on Luka Doncic too much on the offensive end because he doesn't have much talent around him.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Antonio is 43-17 ATS in its last 60 Friday games.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State +10

We've already seen two MAC teams picked in the top half of the league go on the road and give two of the best Big Ten teams fits.  Akron nearly upset Ohio State and lost by 1 as 16.5-point underdogs, while Buffalo easily covered at Michigan and gave the Wolverines a run for their money.

Now it's another top half of the MAC's teams turn to go on the road and give Xavier a run for its money tonight.  I like this Kent State team that returns three starters in Tervell Beck (11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Giovanni Santiago (9.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Justyn Hamilton (8.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), plus a double-digit scorer off the bench in Malique Jacobs (10.0 PPG, 3.7 APG).

The positive news for the Golden Flashes doesn't stop there as they also welcome in transfers Sincere Carry (11.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) from Duquesne and Andrew Garcia (8.7 PPG) from Georgia.  Keep an eye on freshman guard Jalen Sullinger, a second-team All-Ohio selection who is the nephew of Kent State assistant Julian Sullinger and NBA first-round pick Jared Sullinger and son of former Ohio State forward J.J. Sullinger.

Xavier's 63-60 win over Niagara as a 17-point favorite in the opener is concerning and makes me believe Kent State can hang, too.  That's especially the case with the Musketeers being without their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to start the season.  They are also without Ben Stanley (6.0 PPG) and could be without Kyky Tandy (6.6 PPG).

The Musketeers are 17-37-3 ATS in their last 57 games as favorites.  The Golden Flashes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Take Kent State Friday.

20* Cincinnati/South Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +23.5

You're paying a tax to back the Cincinnati Bearcats because they are 9-0 on the season and trying to make the four-team playoff.  They are feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoff and live up to expectations, and it has shown with their play on the field of late as they have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall while being in three straight dog fights against suspect competition.

Indeed, the Bearcats only beat Navy 27-20 as 28.5-point favorites.  They managed just 271 total yards and were outgained by 37 yards.  Then they had to pull away late to beat Tulane 31-12 as 27.5-point favorites.  They managed just 351 total yards and outgained a 1-8 Tulane team by just 71 yards.  And last week they needed a couple goal line stands to beat Tulsa 28-20 as 22.5-point favorites.  They managed just 390 total yards and were outgained by 56 yards by the Golden Hurricane.

I just don't think Cincinnati can be trusted to keep laying these kinds of big numbers, including this week at South Florida.  Their offense isn't dynamic enough to cover these big numbers, and they keep getting the opponents' best shot.  That will be the case this week for South Florida as they will look at this game as their 'National Championship' as they sit at just 2-7 on the season and won't be going bowling.

South Florida may not have to face Cincinnati star RB Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns.  Either way, I like the Bulls tonight.  They are much better than their 2-7 record would indicate.  They opened 1-4 this season with all four losses to ranked teams, so they have played a brutal schedule and won't be phased by Cincinnati.

The Bulls have since gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-32 to Tulsa as 7.5-point dogs, beat Temple 34-14 as 2-point favorites, lost 14-29 at ECU despite only getting outgained by 80 yards and turned it over four times, and lost 42-54 as 13.5-point home dogs to Houston.  That's a Houston team that is playing as well as anyone in the AAC right now.

A very bad South Florida team only lost 7-28 at Cincinnati as 22-point underdogs last year.  They committed five turnovers and were only outgained by 42 yards by the Bearcats, so it was closer than the final score.  In fact, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of the last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 23.5-point spread.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +10

This number has been adjusted too much toward the Utah Jazz due to the spot for the Indiana Pacers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-101 loss in Denver last night.  ut the spot is eased by the fact that the Pacers had two days off prior to that Denver game.

It's also eased by the fact that the Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 4 and 3 points.  Their three wins came by 13, 13 and 3 points.  Malcolm Brogdon is back healthy, and they could get Caris LeVert back tonight after he sat out last night.

This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Jazz have been a double-digit favorite.  The last time they lost outright to the Orlando Magic as 11-point favorites.  And I just think they are getting too much respect here.  It's not the best spot for the Jazz either playing their 4th game in 6 days.

Indiana has thrived in these kinds of spots, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Roll with the Pacers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Riverside +10

UC-Riverside will be one of the best teams in the Big West Conference this season.  They returned three starters and four key reserves from a squad that went 14-8 overall last season and 8-4 in the Big West.  All three returning starters played well in their opener against San Diego State, as did Callum McRae who sat out all last season and newcomer J.P. Moorman II.

UC-Riverside lost that opener 53-66 to San Diego State as 12.5-point road underdogs, failing to cover by 0.5 points.  Well, San Diego State is picked by most to win the Mountain West this season, so that was a very good showing.  And the Aztecs are certainly better than this Arizona State squad.

The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers from last year in Remy Martin (19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG), Josh Christopher (14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG).  They bring back two starters and will lack chemistry in the early going.  That was evident when they failed to cover in a 76-60 win as a 22-point home favorite against lowly Portland in their opener.  Portland is picked to finish at or near the bottom of the WCC this season.

Arizona State has been a money burner for quite some time now and will continue to be this season.  The Sun Devils are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall.  Arizona State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Sun Devils are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after going UNDER the total in their previous game.  Bet UC-Riverside Thursday.

15* Ravens/Dolphins AFC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7.5

The Baltimore Ravens have won six of their last seven games overall and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Miami Dolphins tonight.  The Ravens always seem to get better as the season goes on.  And they are coming off a misleading win over the Vikings last week.

The Ravens outgained the Vikings by 182 yards last week and should have won by more.  But they gave up a kickoff return TD which is the only reason it was even close and the only reason they did not cover.  They were also -2 in turnovers.  That misleading final I think actually has them undervalued this week.

Baltimore should still be fresh even coming off an OT game because they had a bye week prior to the Minnesota game.  They face a Miami Dolphins team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week, making this short week even tougher on them.  I don't expect them to handle it well, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa doubtful for this one.

The Dolphins are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season.  They beat the worst team in the NFL in the Texans 17-9 last week despite just 262 total yards with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.  Their other win was a misleading 17-16 win at New England in the opener in which they should have lost while getting outgained by 134 yards.  The Dolphins are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.

Baltimore is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  The Ravens are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven wins by 14 points or more.  Take the Ravens Thursday.

20* UNC/Pittsburgh ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  All seven wins came by 7 points or more including six by double-digits.  Both losses came by a combined 7 points.  They will beat the UNC Tar Heels by a touchdown or more tonight.

It's going to be a great atmosphere in Pittsburgh tonight with the Panthers on the verge of winning the Coastal title.  It will be a bigger home-field advantage than normal.  And the fact of the matter is Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the football, especially defensively.

Kenny Pickett is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 68.7% of his passes with a 29-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season.  He leads a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 45.0 points, 541.1 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  Pickett and company will have their way with a UNC defense that allows 33.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

UNC has a good offense in averaging 38.9 points and 488.8 yards per game this season.  But the passing game isn't what is was expected to be with Sam Howell, and the Tar Heels have actually had to rely on the run a lot averaging 215 rushing yards per game.  Well, that's not going to work against his Pitt defense.

Pittsburgh only allows 22.7 points, 344.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  While you can throw on them a little, you cannot run on them.  The Panthers give up 107 rushing yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 12th nationally.  Pitt will make UNC one-dimensional, and that will make them much easier to stop.

This is a tough spot for UNC after needing a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Wake Forest 58-55 as 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Now they have to come back Thursday and try and stop this potent Pitt offense after the defense was just gashed for 615 yards by Wake Forest.  Pitt should score at will in this game and get enough stops to cover this number.

UNC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a conference win.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off a conference home win.  The Tar Heels are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season and losing by 12.3 points per game.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their four games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers have gotten healthy and are living up to their potential because of it.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Now they come in rested and ready to go having the last two days off and will take down the Denver Nuggets tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the Nuggets due to their injuries and suspensions.  They are without their three best players in Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.  I just don't think they have enough pieces outside those three to even keep this game competitive against the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Indiana is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after scoring 105 point or less.  The Pacers are 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Youngstown State +18

Penn State is in a rebuilding year and should not be an 18-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight.  They have a first-year head coach in Micah Sshrewsberry.  They bring back just one double-digit scorer from last year's team and lose their top two scorers in Myreon Jones (15.3 PPG) and Izaiah Brockington (12.6 PPG).

Youngstown State will be going for its third straight winning season for the first time since 1985.  Jerrod Calhoun has turned this program around as he enters his 5th season here with some continuity.  The Penguins won seven of their final nine games last season and lost to Oakland in overtime in the Horizon League tournament.

The Penguins return three starters from that team in Garrett Covington (12.5 PPG< 4.6 RPG), Shemar Rathan-Mayes (10.4 PPG) and Michael Akuchie (9.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG).  They also return four key bench players and bring in Dayton transfer Dwayne Cohill and Hampton transfer Chris Shelton.

The Nittany Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  I'm expecting them to struggle out of the gate.  Roll with Youngstown State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game.  They rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 6th in offensive efficiency, one of only two teams that can claim to be Top 6 in both categories.

The Dallas Mavericks are also 7-3 this season, but they are actually getting outscored by 2.3 points per game, so they have been very fortunate in close games.  The Mavericks rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They rely way too much on Luka Doncic, and I don't like Jason Kidd as a head coach.

The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go tonight having the last two days off following a huge upset of the Utah Jazz 107-100 as 11-point home underdogs.  I love the way Cole Anthony is playing right now as he is leading this team with 20.2 points per game, and Wendell Carter Jr. (13.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG), Franz Wagner (13.7 PPG) and Jalen Suggs (12.0 PPG) are coming into their own as well.

The spot isn't nearly as good for Brooklyn.  The Nets will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They started to show fatigue in the 4th quarter last time out in a 95-118 road loss to the Bulls.  And the Nets have to deal with getting the opposing teams' best shot on a nightly basis just because of the big names in Durant and Harden they have on their roster.  But they don't have much else outside those two, so covering these big spreads consistently won't be easy.

The Nets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Toledo/Bowling Green OVER 49.5

This is a very low total for a MAC week night game and I don't think it's justified.  So we'll back the OVER and root for yet another shootout in the MAC tonight in a game between two teams that are playing as shootout teams of late.

Toledo is coming off a 52-49 loss to Eastern Michigan last week in which the Rockets gained 672 total yards and somehow lost.  Their defense will be tired from that shootout, but their offense should be ready to hang another big number on Bowling Green tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four games overall.  They combined for 55 points with Akron, 60 points with Northern Illinois, 79 points with Eastern Michigan and 100 points with Buffalo.  That's why it is shocking to see this total so low tonight.

The Falcons have a better passing game than they get credit for and will need it to try and keep up with Toledo.  Bowling Green has passed for at least 221 yards in seven of their last eight games overall, including at least 235 yards in five straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  And these teams are obviously familiar with one another now meeting for the third time in two weeks.  The first two meetings saw just 202 and 203 combined points, and this one should be low scoring as well.

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have allowed 41.8% shooting or lower in six of their last seven games overall.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

The Blazers are also improved defensively this season.  They have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or fewer.  They just limited the Lakers to 90 points last time out and I see both teams struggling to top 100 in this one.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last four home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Clippers last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +12.5

Oral Roberts made the Sweet 16 last year.  They return three starters from that team, including Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas, who led college basketball in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  They also bring back Kareem Thompson (8.7 PPG) and four other players that averaged at least 4.1 points per game. 

Colorado State is getting too much respect as a 12.5-point favorite over Oral Roberts in the opener.  The Rams nearly made the NCAA Tournament but came up just short last year.  They will be good again with five returning starters, but they should not be laying double-digits here against Abmas and company.

The Golden Eagles are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Golden Eagles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.  Bet Oral Roberts Tuesday.

15* LA Tech/Alabama SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -11

Nate Oats is doing a tremendous job already at Alabama.  He guided the Crimson Tide to a 26-7 season including a 16-2 record in SEC play to take down the regular season title and SEC Tournament.  This team is loaded again with the best backcourt in the country.

Leading scorer Jaden Shackleford (14.0 PPG) decided to return this season.  Javon Quinerly (12.9 PPG) made 43% from 3 last season.  J.D. Davison is a five-star and one of the top recruits in the class of 2021 and will push Quinerly for playing time.  The Crimson Tide ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency last season and played at the 11th-fasted tempo in the country.

Louisiana Tech is a quality team in Conference USA year in and year out.  And while they do return three starters this season, they do lose two productive ones in Kaleb Ledoux (11.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and JaColby Pemberton (8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama as they prefer to play at a slow tempo and are defensive-minded.  Alabama will control the tempo playing at home.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* MAC Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 60

Eastern Michigan has been mighty impressive on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 31 points against Ball State, 55 against Bowling Green and 52 against Toledo.  I think they can virtually almost cover this OVER on their own, but I'm expecting them to get some help, too.

Eastern Michigan QB Ben Bryant is one of the most underrated starters in college football.  He is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,190 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has thrown for at least 286 yards in four of his last five games and will lead this pass-heavy Eagles attack again tonight.

Ohio has scored at least 26 points in each of its last five games.  It is coming off a 35-point effort against a very good Miami Ohio defense last week.  So the Bobcats are capable of matching the Eagles score for score in this one.

Both teams have average to above-average offenses, but both teams definitely have below-average defenses.  Ohio gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play.  Eastern Michigan gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Both defenses are tired after Ohio gave up 569 yards to Miami last week, while Eastern Michigan allowed 672 yards to Toledo.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven Tuesday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last four Tuesday games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +26

The Akron Zips are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The only exception was a blowout loss to Buffalo in which they turned it over four times.  The other three games have been mighty impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 35-20 upset win at Bowling Green as 14-point dogs.  They also covered in a 21-34 loss at Miami Ohio as 20-point dogs.  And last week they covered as 20-point dogs in a 25-31 road loss at Ball State in which they had a chance to win the game on the final drive but fumbled going into the end zone.

Akron did fire their head coach after that loss to Ball State, which wasn't fair.  But I always like backing teams in their first game without their head coach because they tend to rally around one another.  And I expect that to be the case for them tonight as they easily stay within this 26-point spread.

The key to the Zips being more competitive of late is the play of QB Zach Gibson at quarterback.  He is completing 71.9% of his passes with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio and was the main guy in each of their last three covers against Bowling Green, Miami Ohio and Ball State.  Gibson went 24-of-31 passing for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week.

I also hate the spot for Western Michigan.  The Broncos are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall to fall out of the MAC title chase.  They lost 20-45 outright as a 13.5-point home favorite against Ball State.  They lost 15-34 as a 1.5-point road favorite at Toledo.  And last week they lost 30-42 as a 9-point home favorite against Central Michigan.  

I question this team's focus the rest of the way, especially this week laying 26 points to Akron, which will be very difficult to cover whether they are focused or not.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Western Michigan is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

Ohio State is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 21-10 last season and earned a No. 2 seed.  They fell victim to Oral Roberts' incredible run, but that just means they come back this season highly motivated.

The Buckeyes bring back one of the best big men in the country in E.J. Lidell (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They also bring back three more starters including Justice Sueing (10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG).  They add Ohio Mr. Basketball Malaki Branham as an elite freshman recruit, plus Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler and Louisiana guard Cedric Russell to solidify their backcourt.

Akron is no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the MAC.  The Zips bring back three decent starters but lose their best player in Loren Christian Jackson (22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), who is irreplaceable for this team.  Jackson turned pro after rolling up 1,587 points, 381 assists and two first-team All-MAC selections in his three years here.  Take Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat -2

The Miami Heat look like the best team in the NBA in the early going.  They are 7-2 with one loss in overtime and another loss where they shot a fluky 34.5% as a team.  Six of their seven wins have come by 13 points or more, and the lone exception was a win over the Utah Jazz by 3 last time out.

The Denver Nuggets are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Two of the wins were narrow victories over bad teams in the Timberwolves (93-91) and Rockets (95-94).  They are already without Jamal Murray, and they will also be without Michael Porter Jr. due to a back injury tonight.  Meanwhile, the Heat are fully healthy which is why they are playing so well.

Plays against home underdogs (Denver) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Heat are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* Bears/Steelers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers have turned around their season the only way they know how.  There's a reason they have never finished worse than 8-8 under Mike Tomlin because he gets the most out of his players even when things look grim.  And they definitely looked grim after a 1-3 start.

But the Steelers have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS.  They beat the Broncos 27-19 at home, the Seahawks 23-20 at home and the Browns 15-10 on the road in upset fashion.  They were coming off their bye week heading into that Cleveland game and should have won by more.  

They had 370 yards against a good Browns defense and held them to 304 yards, outgaining them by 64 yards.  But they had to settle for too many field goals.  They should still be fresh after that bye and have one of the best looking injury reports in the NFL.  And Big Ben is finding his groove now thanks in large part to a running game that has come around with 115 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games.  This offense is a dangerous one when it has balance.

Now Big Ben should be able to pick apart a Chicago defense that gets shredded every week.  After giving up 38 points and 408 yards to the Bucs two weeks ago in a 38-3 loss, the Bears came back last week and gave up 467 yards and 8.6 yards per play to the 49ers last week in a 33-22 loss that wasn't even as close as the final score.

This is a bad combination for the Bears having a leaky defense and a terrible offense.  They managed just 324 yards and 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers.  They were held to 311 yards against the Bucs, 277 to the Packers, 252 to the Raiders, 373 to the Lions and 47 to the Browns in their previous five games.  Justin Fields just isn't a very good passer, and missing David Montgomery has hurt this team.  

Stopping Chicago's rushing attack will be key, and the Steelers only give up 106 rushing yards per game and are proving they have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this year.  The Steelers are primed for one of the best defensive performances of the season against a Chicago offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense.  The next-worst team is at 4.8 yards per play.

Chicago is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 10.8 points per game and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a home loss.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls off back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia 76ers following their 6-1 start to the season.  Now the Bulls are highly motivated for a victory Monday night.  They are fresh too playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won 96-90 at Detroit on Friday and 116-103 at Toronto on Sunday.  James Harden played 38 minutes against the Raptors and Kevin Durant played nearly 37 minutes.  Four of five starters played at least 33 minutes.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Take the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +3

The Washington Wizards are one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are 6-3 this season with wins over the Raptors, Pacers, Hawks, Celtics (twice) and are coming off a 115-87 home win over Memphis.  I really like this roster with the additions of Harrell (18.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG), Kuzma (14.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Dinwiddie (17.1 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Caldwell-Pope (9.8 PPG) as they are gelling well with Bradley Beal (23.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG) and company.

The Milwaukee Bucks are in the midst of a championship hangover.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with upset home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Knicks as well as a 12-point loss to the Jazz.   Their lone win during this stretch came against the lowly Pistons.

The problem for the Bucks is injuries and COVID.  They are playing without Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo and could be without Grayson Allen tonight.  Giannis and Jrue Holiday haven't been able to shoulder the load.  And it just appears the Bucks are going through the motions.  The Wizards will be the more motivated team with the defending champs coming to town today.

Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Wizards are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  Washington is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on one days' rest.  Take the Wizards Sunday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Sunday Update: I got 49ers +2.5 early in the week.  I would still bet them as a 25* up to -3 even if Murray plays due to their other injuries and the situation.  Lower your bet if you can only get -3.5 or worse.

The San Francisco 49ers want revenge from a 17-10 road loss at Arizona a couple weeks ago on October 10th.  They deserved to win that game as they had the ball in Arizona territory the entire game even with Trey Lance at QB.  They outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards and held them to just 304 yards in that game but managed just 10 points.

Now the 49ers have Jimmy G back at QB, and he is coming off his best game of the season.  The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week in what was an even bigger blowout than the final scored showed.  The 49ers had 467 total yards and outgained the Bears by 143 yards and didn't punt once.  They outgained the Bears 8.6 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play in that game.

The Cardinals are overvalued due to their 7-1 start.  I successfully faded them with the Packers last week in a game Green Bay won outright despite missing several key players.  Now it's the Cardinals who could be missing several key players.  They are already without JJ Watt and C Rodney Hudson, and they could be without both QB Kyler Murray and WR De'Andre Hopkins, who are both questionable.  If Murray were to sit the 49ers would definitely be favored.  But I like them either way.

Plays on underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Arizona is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  It's regression time for this team that has overachieved in the first half this season.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL this season and shows they are better than their 3-4 record would indicate.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -1

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers.  They went into their bye week coming off a 34-6 loss to the Ravens and many expected them to come out with their hair on fire against the Patriots.  Instead, they also lost to the Patriots 24-27 at home as 3.5-point favorites.

Now we are getting the Chargers at a discount.  This team is much better than they have shown in their last two games.  Remember, they were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games beating the Chiefs 30-24 on the road, the Raiders 28-14 at home and the Browns 47-42 at home, and that was back when the Browns were healthier.  And the Chargers should still be fresh after having their bye two weeks ago, and they are as healthy as any team in the NFL.

Conversely, it's time 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are coming off a 44-6 victory over the Lions last week in the biggest blowout of the week.  They did so with just 350 total yards as the Lions just gave that game away.  It was also a flat spot for Jared Goff and the Lions after nearly upsetting the Rams the previous week.  The Eagles took advantage and looked better than they really were.

Remember, the Eagles looked awful the previous two weeks against the Bucs and Raiders.  They were outgained by 186 yards by the Bucs in their misleading 22-28 loss.  They were outgained by 84 yards by the Raiders in their 22-33 road loss in which they had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday the previous week.  Philadelphia's three wins have come against Atlanta, Carolina and Detroit.  They aren't very good, and the Chargers are the better of these two teams and we're getting them at basically a pick 'em price.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1983.

Los Angeles is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games following a loss by 3 points or less.  The Chargers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. NFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Los Angeles is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* Nets/Raptors NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are playing great right now in going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point.  Now they get their best player back making his season debut today in Pascal Siakam and will be highly motivated with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town.

The Nets have also won four in a row but three have come at home and the other was a shaky 96-90 road win over the Pistons.  The Raptors have won three straight road games against Indiana, New York and Washington and have played the much tougher schedule during this stretch of success.

The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their five games overall.  Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last seven meetings with Brooklyn.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -5.5

I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens this week.  They are coming off their bye week and a terrible loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They will come back refreshed and highly motivated for a victory out of their bye.  It was definitely a more productive bye than most teams because you know they were focused off that 17-41 loss to the Bengals.

That loss to the Bengals was the aberration, not the norm.  The Ravens had gone 5-0 in their previous five games with the last three victories over the Broncos, Colts and Chargers coming by a combined 50 points.  Look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Minnesota Vikings this week.

The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to get back in the playoff race with their 16-20 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week.  The Cowboys outgained the Vikings by 141 yards behind a 300-yard passing effort from Rush.  Kirk Cousins was awful as the Vikings went just 1-of-13 on 3rd down and their only play call seemed to be a screen play.  

Cousins cannot stretch the field, and the Ravens play man-to-man defense mostly that is going to take away those short routes.  The Ravens also have the answer for Dalvin Cook.  They give up just 86 rushing yards per game as one of the top run defenses in the NFL.  And Lamar Jackson and company should have a field day against this Minnesota defense that just gave up 418 yards to Rush and the Cowboys.

The Ravens are scoring 26.7 points per game and averaging 417.6 yards per game this season.  They rank 4th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense.  They should be able to do whatever they want to on offense, especially run the football against a Vikings defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.

Baltimore is 15-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  They seem to get better as the season goes on under John Harbaugh.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be playing on two days' rest after last playing in a 98-103 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  Now they get their chance for revenge against the 76ers at home this time around.  They will take advantage and get their revenge with a win and cover.

The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days as they had to go on the road and face Detroit on Thursday.  They are missing several key players right now with Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle out tonight.  They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable.

Philadelphia is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.  The Bulls are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The 76ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls UNDER 213

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Philadelphia just beat Chicago 103-98 on Wednesday for 201 combined points.  Now these teams meet again just three days later here Saturday and I expect another defensive battle.

Philadelphia ranks dead last (30th) in pace this season at 97.8 possessions per game.  The 76ers are missing some key offensive weapons in Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Mattisse Thybulle.  They could also be without Furkan Korkmaz, Danny Green and Isaiah Joe, who are all questionable.  They will be looking to slow it down to a snail's pace.

The Bulls will oblige as they rank just 21st in pace this season.  And the key reason the Bulls have been so improved this year with their 6-2 start is defense.  They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  The 76ers are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency as well.

Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in 76ers last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER In this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5

I definitely like the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks this week.  They are coming off their bye week.  They basically had two weeks off in a row as they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 45-3 going into their bye.  So they have had plenty of time to prepare for Mike Leach's Air Raid system.

The Razorbacks have been great at defending these spread offenses under Sam Pittman.  They upset Ole Miss last year and nearly upset them again this year, losing by 1 on the road.  They drop eight into coverage and keep the ball in front of them against these spread teams.

Last year, they went on the road and upset Mississippi State 21-14 as 16.5-point underdogs.  They forced four Mississippi State turnovers.  And I think they turn them over at least a couple times Saturday.  Arkansas only gives up 168 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt this season, so they are built to stop the pass.

And this is the best Razorbacks offense they have had in several years.  They average 32.8 points and 465.3 yards per game this season.  They are averaging 6.6 yards per play against teams that normally allow 5.9 yards per play, so they are exceeding expectations on offense by 0.7 yards per play.  

Defensively they give up just 5.2 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so they are holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season average.  They are outgaining teams by 1.4 yards per play overall, which is one of the best marks in all of college football.

To compare, Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play, basically breaking even on the season.  Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs off two straight wins over lowly Vanderbilt and overrated Kentucky.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +18.5

New Mexico State has been a big money maker for me and I'm going to continue to ride them as 18.5-point underdogs to Utah State Saturday.  The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and consistently catching too many points on a weekly basis.  Their only non-cover came in a 20-point loss to Hawaii as 17-point dogs.

They have played some great competition during this stretch and hung tough.  They lost by 18 at SDSU as a 31.5-point dogs, by 9 at New Mexico as a 19.5-point dogs, beat South Carolina State by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite, lost by 6 to San Jose State as a 26-point dog, lost by 27 to Nevada as a 28-point dog and lost by 14 to Hawaii in their 2nd meeting as an 18-point dog.

Not only are they covering, but they are playing these teams tough in the stats, too.  The Aggies actually outgained San Diego State by 11 yards, were only outgained by 91 yards by Hawaii in the first meeting and outgained them by 3 yards in the second meeting.  They were only outgained by 80 yards by Nevada and by 19 yards by San Jose State.  So they have only been outgained by more than 91 yards once in their last seven games.

Now the Aggies come in on two weeks' rest after a much-needed bye week following eight games in eight weeks to start the season.  They are primed for a big effort here against a Utah State team that is getting too much respect after winning and covering its last two games against Colorado State and Hawaii.  They were actually outgained by 128 yards in their win over Colorado State, too.

In the three games prior, they barely beat UNLV 2824, lost by 14 to BYU at home and lost by 24 to Boise State at home.  This team has a good offense, which is why they get respect, but their terrible defense is going to keep New Mexico State's underrated offense in this game for four quarters.  The Aggies rank 108th in total defense, giving up 435.1 yards per game.

New Mexico State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Mountain West opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +23

It's time to 'sell high' on the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They are 8-0 this season and starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff.  They barely beat Navy 27-20 as 29-point favorites two weeks ago and managed just 271 total yards against the Midshipmen.  Last week they were in a dog fight with lowly Tulane as a 28-point favorite before pulling away 31-12, but only managing 351 total yards.

Now they face a much better Tulsa team here that we want to 'buy low' on due to their 3-5 record.  But Tulsa is way better than that record would indicate.  And they are coming off an upset loss to Navy last week that has them undervalued.

Remember, Tulsa only lost by 5 as a 10.5-point dog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Hurricane came back the next week and were in a one-score game with Ohio State on the road in the 4th quarter before eventually losing by 21 as a 24.5-point favorite.  They have only lost by more than 21 points once all season.

Amazingly, Tulsa is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games against ranked opponents.  They just have a way of playing up to their level of competition.  Last year, Tulsa only lost 24-27 at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point dog.  They also covered as 15.5-point dogs in a 13-24 loss at Cincinnati the year prior.  Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 19 points or fewer as well.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes this week.  They are coming off two straight upset wins as underdogs over NC State (by 1) and Pittsburgh (by 4) despite giving up 421 yards to NC State and 587 more to Pitt.  They played UNC to a 3-point game the game prior, so they have played in three straight dog fights.  They will run out of gas this week.

Now the Hurricanes go from underdogs to double-digit favorites against Georgia Tech this week, which is a huge overreaction.  This is a letdown spot off the win over a ranked Pitt team if I've ever seen one.  And it's a sandwich spot with rival Florida State on deck next week.  I don't expect anything near Miami's 'A' game this week because of it.

Georgia Tech is highly motivated for a victory.  The Yellow Jackets are coming off a pair of single-digit losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech the last two weeks following their bye.  They still believe they can make a bowl game, and a win here Saturday would be about their only hope.  They will treat this game as their 'National Championship'.

Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Miami with all three games decided by 7 points or fewer.  They won outright as 18-point dogs last year, and they can do the same thing this year given the awful spot for the Hurricanes.  The Yellow Jackets are better than their 3-5 record too as they are outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play on the season.

Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  They only have one win by more than 4 points all season, and that came against FCS Central Connecticut State as a 44-point favorite.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -2.5

We have a 4-4 unranked North Carolina team favored over a ranked 8-0 Wake Forest team.  And I think the unranked Tar Heels are favored for good reason.  Remember, this team was ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season.  They have failed to live up to expectations and I think it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.

They are still alive in the Coastal and won't pack it in.  They should be fresh because they had a bye before losing by 10 on the road to Notre Dame last week.  And they won't have a problem getting up for this unbeaten Wake Forest team off that loss to the Fighting Irish.

No question it's impressive what Wake Forest has done this season in getting to 8-0.  But they have done it against the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  UNC has faced the much tougher slate.   And the Tar Heels have been at their best at home at 4-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game.

UNC's stats show they are much better than a 4-4 team, too.  They are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.  Those are almost identical numbers to Wake Forest, which is outgaining teams by 74 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.  And when you factor in UNC has played the tougher schedule, I actually believe the Tar Heels are the better team here.

UNC is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  I think UNC plays its best game of the season here Saturday and it will be more than enough to cover this 2.5-point spread against this overrated Wake Forest squad.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Liberty +10

Hugh Freeze is the former coach of Ole Miss.  He will have his players ready as this is Liberty's 'National Championship' game against an SEC opponent.  And the Flames come in fresh after throttling UMass 62-17 last week to improve to 7-2 with both their losses coming by 3 points each.

Ole Miss is the team in the awful spot.  The Rebels will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after facing Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn with each of the last four games decided by 14 points or fewer.  They were in a lot of dog fights, and now they step out of conference this week before taking on Texas A&M next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.  They won't get up for Liberty at all stepping out of conference here.

Ole Miss was already missing its best receiver in Jonathan Mingo to a season-ending injury.  Now they could be without both Dontario Drummond (40 receptions, 658 yards, 7 TD) and Braylen Sanders (13 receptions, 309 yards, 3 TD), who are each questionable.  QB Matt Corral is expected to play but is battling an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Liberty comes in fully healthy and ready to match this Ole Miss offense score for score.  The Flames average 37.4 points per game and 444.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They give up just 17.8 points per game, 300.0 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play.  Malik Willis is one of the best QB's in the country that you have never heard of.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 21-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a team-high 684 yards and 9 scores.

The Flames are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.   Liberty is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  The Flames are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.  

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +13.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UAB.  The Blazers are 5-3 this season but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their wins have come against Jacksonville State, North Texas, Tulane, FAU and Southern Miss.  And they even just lost outright to Rice as a 24-point favorites while also losing by 24 to Liberty as a favorite and by 49 to Georgia.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Louisiana Tech, which is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  LA Tech lost by 1 to Mississippi State as a 20.5-point dog, but 2 to SMU as an 11-point dog and by 7 to NC State as an 18.5-point dog.  Those three efforts showed what they were capable of, and the last three games have been the aberration.

The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, which is why it's a good 'buy low' spot.  They lost 19-3 to UTEP which is already bowl eligible.  They lost 16-45 to a UTSA team that is 8-0 this season.  And that game was closer than the final score as the Bulldogs were only outgained by 5 yards against the Roadrunners.  Then last week they outgained Old Dominion by 24 yards in their 23-20 defeat.

Three of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less, and I expect more of the same here with this game going right down to the wire.  UAB"s offense just isn't good enough to get margin.  They average just 25.9 points per game and 374.5 yards per game.  LA Tech can match them offensively, averaging 25.8 points per game and 383.1 yards per game.  And LA Tech has an above-average defense.

LA Tech is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Skip Holtz is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Louisiana Tech is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a road underdog.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  UAB is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have been competitive in every game during their 4-4 start and even have upset road wins over both the Suns and Blazers as 8 and 6.5-point dogs, respectively.  They are the better team in this showdown with Charlotte and should be a bigger favorite.

The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to the Mavericks by 6 and the Jazz by 6.  The Kings rank 11th in offensive efficiency this season and have a great young, healthy roster.  They are 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Charlotte is overvalued after a 5-2 start this season.  The Hornets have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games, getting upset at home by the Cavaliers and blown out on the road by the Warriors by 22.  Charlotte cannot be trusted this season because they rank 28th in defensive efficiency.  Opponents are shooting 47.9% against them and scoring 114.9 points per game.

Sacramento is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 November games.  Charlotte is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses and this is a home-and-home situation after losing 115-126 to the Clippers on Wednesday.  Now the Timberwolves will be out for revenge just two days later here.

The Timberwolves will be the more motivated team in this game.  I have a hard time believing the Clippers are going to shoot anywhere near as well as they did in the first meeting.  They shot 47-of-78 (60.3%) from the field and 21-of-36 (58.3%) from 3-point range and still only won by 11.  That's not happening again.

Especially when you consider the Timberwolves are one of the most improved teams in the NBA defensively this season, ranking 9th in defensive efficiency even after that performance.  The Clippers are still just 22nd in offensive efficiency even after that performance.  And they are still missing three key players in Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka.

Minnesota is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

20* VA Tech/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 47.5

Boston College has been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing starting QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season.  The Eagles are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, combining with Clemson for 32 points, NC State for 40 points, Louisville for 42 points and Syracuse for 27 points.

This total of 47.5 is set way too high Friday night.  Boston College has been held to just 10.0 points per game in its last four games.  Virginia Tech's defense is elite again this season, and it will shut down the Eagles too.  The Hokies allow just 22.4 points per game on the season.

The problem for the Hokies is not defense, but offense.  They average just 24.0 points per game and 349.9 yards per game.  Boston College does have a good defense that gives up just 20.8 points per game this season and should be able to hold the Hokies in check as well.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which should keep the clock moving.  The Hokies average 40 rushing attempts per game, while the Eagles average 38 rushing attempts per game.  Both teams aren't great at stopping the run, so look for both teams to run it even more than normal in this one.

Boston College is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off three straight conference losses.  The UNDER is 6-2 in all Boston College games this season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in all Virginia Tech games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly been very competitive.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with only one loss by more than 10 points.  They beat the Thunder and lost to the Celtics, Mavericks and Lakers (twice) by 10 points or fewer.  They'll stay within 10 of the Suns tonight as well.

Phoenix has been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS and were fortunate to cover against the depleted Pelicans last time out, winning by 12 as 11.5-point favorites only after a 36-18 4th quarter.  They lost to the Blazers by 29, were upset by the Kings as 8-point favorites, lost to the Nuggets by 12, and failed to cover as 10-point favorites against the Cavaliers.  The NBA Finals loss hangover is in full effect.

The Rockets were extremely competitive with the Suns last season and that was a disastrous year for Houston and a tremendous one for Phoenix.  All three meetings were decided by 6 points or less, and the Rockets were 13 and 14-point dogs in two of the games.

Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Houston is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 trips to Phoenix.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Jets/Colts AFC Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5

The Indianapolis Colts can't be favored by double-digit against almost anyone.  Carson Wentz cannot be trusted to make the right throws.  Their best bet it to run it 40 times a game with Johnathan Tayor, but they refuse to do it.

The Colts are coming off yet another devastating overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have gotten them back in the AFC South race.  Now they are tired on a short week here and having to face a New York Jets team that is undervalued and coming in with confidence and feeling good about themselves.

The Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 last week as 11.5-point underdogs and should have won by even more.  They racked up 511 total yards against the Bengals and held them to just 318 yards, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards.  But they did commit three turnovers to keep the Bengals in the game.

Still, no starting debut for a QB could have gone any better than the one for Mike White against the Bengals.  White went 37-of-45 passing for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Michael Carter emerged as the lead back as a rookie, rushing for 77 yards and a score while also catching nine balls for 95 yards.  This young team is looking forward to this opportunity on a National TV stage to showcase what they are capable of now with White running the show.

While the injury news is looking up on the Jets' front, the Colts suffered some more key injuries against the Titans last week.  T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and left the game and will be out for this one.  Wentz was terrible after he left.  DT Tyquon Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury as well.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz ML -109

The Utah Jazz were the best team in the regular season last year and are off to another great start this season.  They are 6-1 and crushing teams once again with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and four by double-digits.   They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-117 road loss at Brooklyn on ESPN on National TV last night.  The Hawks will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA today.

The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as road favorites.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.