Winning Sports Picks

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +2.5

It's now or never for the Minnesota Timberwolves after falling down 0-2 in this series to the Denver Nuggets.  I expect them to fire back in Game 3 here at home.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four playoff games on the road and were competitive in two of them, taking the Lakers to OT in the play-in game and the Nuggets to the wire in Game 2.

But now the Timberwolves at back home where they were much more comfortable.  In their lone playoff home game, the Timberwolves crushed the upstart Thunder 120-95 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think they are getting disrespected here as home underdogs to the Nuggets and will make a statement.

Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+105)

The Oakland A's are 3-16 this season with 12 losses by two runs or more.  The A's are scoring 3.4 runs per game and allowing 7.9 runs per game, getting outscored by 4.5 runs per game on the season.  The Rangers are 12-6 and scoring 6.2 runs per game while allowing 3.8 runs per game, outscoring opponents by 2.4 runs per game this season.

I'll gladly take the Rangers on the Run Line today to win by two runs or more.  Jon Gray is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing only 5 earned runs in 14 innings.  Gray fired 7 shutout innings in a 5-2 victory over the A's in his last start against them.

JP Sears is 0-1 with a 4.59 ERA in three starts this season for the A's while allowing 8 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 2/3 innings.  Sears allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against Texas.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Tigers and Orioles tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left at Camden Yards in Baltimore tonight.  Combine that forecast with these two gas can starting pitchers, and we have a recipe for plenty of runs.

Michael Lorenzen has a 4.16 ERA and 1.363 WHIP in 575 innings in the big leagues.  Lorenzen will be making his second start of the season and his first was a disaster.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 7-6 win over the San Francisco Giants on April 15th.

Tyler Wells is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts for the Orioles this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings.  Wells is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in two career starts against the Tigers, allowing 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 innings.

Lorenzen is 7-0 OVER in his last seven starts as an underdog of +125 to +175.  The OVER is 20-7-2 in Tigers last 29 road games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Orioles last five home games.  Baltimore is scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on White Sox/Rays OVER 8.5

The Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 7.0 runs per game overall and 7.8 runs per game at home this season.  They are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own.  But the White Sox are scoring 4.4 runs per game and will chip in to help cash this OVER for us against Tampa Bay opener Calvin Faucher and their bullpen.

Michael Kopech has been a gas can and is actually lucky to have only a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has already allowed 7 homers and 10 walks in 15 2/3 innings.  And that has come against the Orioles, Pirates and Giants so this is a step up in class for him.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tampa Bay.  The OVER is 11-5-2 in White Sox last 18 games overall.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last seven home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are by far the superior team over the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have four stars in Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul compared to one for the Clippers in Kawhi Leonard, who is having to shoulder too much of the load for them.  They are relying on several guys past their primes including Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook.

Leonard had 31 points in Game 2 and the Clippers still lost by 14.  I think we are getting the Suns very cheap here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.  Kevin Durant is 22-2 SU in his last 24 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  The Suns are finally forming chemistry with him and will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  Los Angeles is 4-15 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Los Angeles.  The Clippers only went 23-18 at home this season and don't have that big of a home-court advantage.  Bet the Suns in Game 3 Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -115

The upstart Chicago Cubs are 11-6 this season and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  They have won four consecutive games coming in and just swept the A's while outscoring them 24-3 in the process.  I like their chances of making it five in a row against the Los Angeles Dodgers at home today.

Michael Grove has been a gas can this season, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in three starts for the Dodgers.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 21 base runners in 13 innings this season.  Jameson Taillon is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in three starts for the Cubs this season.

The Dodgers will be without Mookie Betts tonight as he is on paternity leave.  Their lineup already wasn't as strong as last season, and it's a big blow missing Betts at the top of their lineup.  The Dodgers are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Los Angeles is 9-10 on the season and you'd be down $758 betting $100 per game on them as they have consistently been overvalued.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Cubs OVER 11

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 11 ticket between the Dodgers and Cubs tonight.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight in Chicago.

Two starters off to rough starts this season go at it.  Michael Grove has been a gas can this season, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in three starts for the Dodgers.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 21 base runners in 13 innings this season.  Jameson Taillon is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in three starts for the Cubs this season.

I like the fact that these starters just faced these same lineups in their last starts, which will favor the hitters more than the pitchers.  The Cubs are scoring 5.8 runs per game on the season.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.2 runs per game on the season and 5.9 runs per game on the road.

The OVER is 9-2 in Dodgers last 11 games following a loss.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 219.5

The Miami Heat lost their second-best player and the Milwaukee Bucks lost their best player to injury in Game 1 of this series.  Tyler Herro (20.1 PPG) suffered a fracture hand and is likely to miss the rest of the playoffs.  Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.1 PPG) suffered a back injury and is doubtful to play in Game 2.

Without these two, I expect points to be much harder to come by for both teams.  The total for Game 1 was 221 and now the total for Game 2 is 219.5, which isn't a big enough adjustment down for these two losses.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and as a series progresses the scoring slows down almost in every series.

The reason the total has stayed relatively high is because Game 1 was an offensive aberration that saw the Heat beat the Bucks 130-117 for 247 combined points.  Miami shot 59.5% as a team including a ridiculous 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's obviously not going to happen again.  I think the defense is much better in Game 2, and the shooting much poorer while also being played at a slower pace.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Astros AL No-Brainer on OVER 9

Two of the most potent lineups in the American League square off tonight against two gas can starters in Jose Berrios and Luis Garcia.  The end result should be plenty of runs to get us up and OVER this 9-run total.

Berrios went 12-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 32 starts last season, including 5-5 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.525 WHIP on the road as he has been much worse away from home in his career.  Berrios is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in two road starts.

Luis Garcia is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 14 innings.  It's not going to go any better for him here against Toronto.

The OVER is 14-4 in Berrios' last 18 road starts.  The OVER is 8-0 in Berrios' last eight road starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Houston.  The OVER is 9-2 in Astros last 11 home games with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -124

The Minnesota Twins come back highly motivated after three consecutive losses including blowing a one-run lead in the 8th and a two-run lead in the 10th to the Red Sox yesterday.  The Red Sox will be playing for a 12th consecutive day, are tired and their bullpen is taxed.

The Twins have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Joe Ryan.  He is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings with 26 K's.  He has struck out 10 in consecutive starts against the Astros and Yankees.

Corey Kluber is far past his prime and doesn't go deep into starts, which means the Twins will get into this taxed Boston bullpen early.  Kluber is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings.

The Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Twins Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Rangers and Royals today.  Temps will be in the 70's with whopping 20-30 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.

The wind was blowing out yesterday and the Rangers cover the total on their own in a 12-2 victory.  It could easily be more of the same here against Brady Singer, who is 1-1 with a 7.87 ERA in three starts this season while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings.  Singer is 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in two career starts against the Rangers as well.

Martin Perez has big home/road splits and is much better at home than he has been on the road over the past couple seasons.  Perez allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings of a 10-4 victory at Kansas City in his lone road start against the Royals last season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Perez's last 15 day game starts.  The OVER is 14-2 in Royals last 16 home games after scoring two runs or fewer in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Rangers last 10 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Royals last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games, and 11 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Giants/Marlins UNDER 8

There are expected to be 16 MPH winds blowing in from left at pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park in Miami today.  That forecast will help us cash this UNDER ticket between the Giants and Marlins.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Marlins last six games overall with 7 or fewer combined runs in all six games.  The UNDER is 8-2-2 in Marlins' 12 home games this season.  Miami is 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 home games vs. teams that average 1.5 or more homers per game.

Alex Cobb is 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in three starts this season while facing both the Dodgers and Yankees.  Trevor Rogers is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in three starts this season while facing the Mets twice.  Cobb is 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against Miami.  Rogers allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against San Francisco.

The Marlins are scoring just 2.6 runs per game at home this season.  The Giants are scoring just 3.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -7.5

That was a rare loss for Kevin Durant in Game 1.  Durant is 21-2 in his last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 after getting upset by the Clippers in Game 1 of this series.

A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back more motivated and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Suns are clearly the better team in this series.

The Suns only made six 3-pointers in Game 1.  You can expect them to make double-digits from 3 in Game 2 which will be a big difference in the result.  The Clippers remain without Paul George and I think that puts too much of a burden on Kawhi Leonard.  The Suns were dominant with Durant prior to that Game 1 loss.

Plays on any team (Phoenix) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Rockies OVER 13

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 13 ticket between the Pirates and Rockies.  Temps will be in the 70's with 20-25 MPH winds blowing out to right at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  Colorado's last seven home games have all seen 11 or more combined runs and five have seen 13 or more combined runs.  That includes their 17-run outburst with the Rockies yesterday.

Two gas cans are on the mound for their respective teams tonight.  The Rockies go with Jose Urena, who is 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in three starts this season.  Vincent Velasquez is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in three starts for the Phillies.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blue Jays/Astros AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

Two of the best lineups in baseball square off tonight in what should be a slug fest between the Astros and Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays are scoring 4.8 runs per game overall and 5.1 runs per game on the road.  The Astros are scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 5.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Astros won 9-2 yesterday and should have another big day at the plate against Chris Bassitt, who is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  Bassitt is 0-1 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts against Houston, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 2/3 innings.

Jose Urquidy is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in three starts this season allowing 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 21 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  He has been fortunate not to allow more runs and his luck runs out tonight.  Urquidy is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays while allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 innings.

The OVER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings inside hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.  The OVER is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games.  The OVER is 5-0-2 in Blue Jays last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Rangers and Royals tonight.  Temps will be approaching 80 with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Kauffman Stadium.  This is a pitching rematch from less than a week ago when the Royals beat the Rangers 10-1 for 11 combined runs.

Nathan Eovaldi allowed 6 earned runs and 10 hits in 5 innings to take the loss.  He is now 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in three starts this season.  Eovaldi has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.

Brad Keller is off to a good start this season.  But that was a rare good start for him against the Rangers in his last outing.  Keller is 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 7-2 in Rangers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last five games when their opponent scored 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 14-2 in Royals last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland -5

The Cleveland Cavaliers got dominated on the boards in Game 1 which was their demise.  They lost the rebounding battle 51-38 and gave up 17 offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team on the season, so don't expect that to happen again.

I expect the Cavaliers to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 2 tonight.  A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back the more motivated team and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in this series.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five season.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - off two or more consecutive home losses in April games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Twins -101

The Boston Red Sox are a tired team as they will be playing for an 11th consecutive day.  Their bullpen is taxed after four straight games decided by 2 runs or fewer.  The Twins had yesterday off and will not only be the fresher team, but they also have a massive advantage on the mound in this one.

Sonny Gray is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just one earned runs in 17 innings with 19 K's.  He'll be opposed by Chris Sale, who is 1-1 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.083 WHIP in three starts while allowing 15 earned runs, 5 homers and 25 base runners in 12 innings.  The Twins will get into Boston's taxed bullpen early in this one.

The Twins are 5-0 in their last five games following an off day.  The Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Twins Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Yankees OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 50's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Two gas cans are on the mound for their respective teams tonight.  Jose Suarez is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in two starts for the Angels this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  Clarke Schmidt is 0-0 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.970 WHIP in three starts for the Yankees this season while allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 21 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +143

Having one of the best farm systems in baseball for the past couple years is finally starting to pay off for the Diamondbacks this season.  They have gone 9-7 this season and you'd be up $574 betting $100 per game on them.  Conversely, the Cardinals are 7-9 this season and you'd be down $509 betting $100 per game on them.

The Diamondbacks have an underrated rotation especially at the top with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.  Kelly went 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 33 starts last season.  He has posted a 2.93 ERA in three starts this season while allowing only 5 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings.  Kelly has a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals while allowing only 3 earned runs in 13 innings, and both starts came last season.

Jack Flaherty continues making his way back from injury and is far from his old self.  He has control issues with 14 walks in 15 1/3 innings this season.  He'll be up against an Arizona lineup that is hitting .282 and scoring 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.  The Cardinals are only scoring 3.9 runs per game against right-handed starters to compare.

The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. right-handed starters, including 5-0 in their last five road games vs. right-handed starters.  The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six during Game 1 of a series.  Their bullpen is taxed after going to extra innings in both games over the weekend with the Pirates.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

15* Nets/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 3-pointers and had a 19-8 advantage in turnovers in Game 1 over the Brooklyn Nets to win by 20.  A lot went right for them in that game, and I don't expect it to be nearly as easy for them in Game 2.  I expect the Nets to take this game to the wire tonight.

The Nets are 144-97 ATS in their last 241 road games when revenging a loss.  Brooklyn is 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  Bet the Nets in Game 2 Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rays/Reds OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Rays and Reds tonight.  There are expected to be 20-plus MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

The Rays are hitting .280 and scoring 7.1 runs per game as a team.  The Reds are hitting .253 and scoring 4.9 runs per game as a team, including .270 and 5.6 runs per game at home.  They are hitting .289 and scoring 6.8 runs per game against left-handed starters as well.  The Rays are vulnerable on the mound tonight going with an opener in Jalen Beeks who will pitch one inning before giving way to the bullpen.

Hunter Greene gets a lot of hype for the Reds due to his K potential, but he is 0-0 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 8 earned runs and 23 base runners in 14 innings.  He will get worked early in this game and the Rays will get into Cincinnati's weak bullpen early.  The Reds' bullpen has a 4.47 ERA and 1.423 WHIP on the season.

Tampa Bay is 7-0 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season and we're seeing 12.1 combined runs per game in this spot.  The OVER is 9-2-1 in Rays' last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Reds' last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -7.5

The Phoenix Suns showed what they were capable of down the stretch when fully healthy and trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs.  They went 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS for a stretch with four wins by double-digits.  Kevin Durant is now 21-1 SU in his last 22 games played.

This would have been a great series if Paul George was healthy.  Instead, there's too much on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders now, and while he is a great player he isn't good enough to beat the Suns on his own.  He is going to be trusting too much in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon, two veterans on the downside of their careers.  Westbrook has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.

I think Durant is the better player than Leonard, plus Booker and Ayton are both better than anything the Clippers have. They won't be able to match up with Booker on the perimeter or Ayton inside as the Clippers are very weak in the paint with Zubac handling most the minutes.

The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  This rest is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Suns as they are now ready to make their playoff run as likely the best team in the West as currently constructed.  Bet the Suns in Game 1 Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/White Sox OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket, which is why I'm willing to bet an OVER in game involving Chicago ace Dylan Cease.  There are expected to be 25 MPH winds blowing out to left at Guaranteed Rate Field today.  The White Sox and Orioles have combined for 13 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series, and it should be more of the same due to the forecast today.

The Orioles have a taxed bullpen that hasn't been very good due to playing their 10th consecutive day today.  The White Sox have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 7.32 ERA and 1.955 WHIP in 51 2/3 innings, allowing 42 earned runs.  Grayson Rodriquez hasn't made it past the 5th inning in any of his two starts this season with a 6.75 ERA allowing 7 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings for the Orioles.

Baltimore is scoring 5.7 runs per game overall while Chicago is scoring 4.7 runs per game overall, including 5.2 runs per game at home.  The OVER is 15-4 in Cease's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Orioles last five games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in all five and 12 runs or more in four of the five.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in White Sox last seven home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Pirates and Cardinals today.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Busch Stadium.  These two starters aren't very good, so these teams should easily combine for 9-plus runs in this one.

Miles Mikolas has been a total disaster for the Cardinals.  He is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA and 2.233 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 32 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  Mitch Keller has been decent at 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three starts, but he will get lit up today alongside Mikolas.

Pittsburgh is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after allowing 3 runs or less in two consecutive games.  The Pirates are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games after allowing 4 runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Angels/Red Sox OVER 9

The Angels and Red Sox are pretty much mirror images of one another.  They have potent lineups, terrible starting rotations and terrible bullpens.  That makes both dead nuts OVER teams, and I'll gladly back the OVER 9 runs here at hitter-friendly Fenway Park after these teams just combined for 16 runs yesterday.

Reid Detmers is 0-0 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in two starts for the Angels this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Garrett Whitlock, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in one start while allowing 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings to the Rays.  Whitlock is 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts against the Angels, both of which came last season.

The OVER is 4-1 in Red Sox last five games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in four of the five, and 8 runs in the other.  The Red Sox are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall and 6.1 runs per game at home.  The Angels are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-140)

Patrick Corbin has been the worst starter in baseball over the past three seasons.  He went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 31 starts in 2021 and 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts in 2022.  He hasn't been any better thus far in 2023, going 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 30 base runners in 14 innings.

I'll gladly back the Guardians to win this game by two runs or more with ace Shane Bieber on the mound.  Bieber is 55-26 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his career over 722 innings.  He is one of the best starters in baseball.  Bieber is 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 5 earned runs, zero homers and 18 base runners in 19 innings.

The Nationals are 5-25 in Corbin's last 30 starts as an underdog and losing by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Cleveland is 9-0 in his last nine road games vs. a NL team with a .390 slugging percentage or worse and winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Guardians on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket tonight between the Cubs and Dodgers.  Temperatures will be in the 60's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Dodger Stadium.  With these two gas cans on the mound, it's not like we need the help.

Michael Grove is 0-1 with a 14.73 ERA and 2.319 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Jameson Taillon is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 innings.  Taillon is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in three career starts against the Dodgers as well.

The Cubs are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall, including 8.7 runs per game at home.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.8 runs per game overall, including 6.6 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Los Angeles has a 5.48 bullpen ERA while Chicago has a 4.27 bullpen ERA.

The OVER is 16-4 in Dodgers last 20 games after allowing 8 runs or more.  The OVER is 8-0 in Dodgers last eight games following a loss.  The Dodgers and their opponents have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Cubs and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Warriors/Kings ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK

The Sacramento Kings will be making their first playoff appearance since 2006.  It's safe to say it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere for Game 1 of this series with fans ready to let out years of frustration in support of this team.

Mike Brown is the coach of the year leading the Kings to a 48-34 record this season and the 3rd seed in the West.  They have stayed remarkably healthy all season and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  I think they have a huge advantage over the Warriors when the backups are in as the Warriors lack the depth of years' past when they made NBA Finals runs.

Most just expect the Warriors to flip on the switch, but it's not that easy.  Andrew Wiggins returns but is going to be rusty after missing the past 25 games.  And the Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA all season, going 11-30 SU & 13-28 ATS on the highway.

Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Kings are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* Phillies/Reds NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket today between the Phillies and Reds.  Temperatures will be approaching 80 with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.

Graham Ashcraft and Matt Strahm are both below-average starters in this league despite both getting off to decent starts this season, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Both the Phillies and Reds are getting healthier at the plate too and have two very good lineups.

The OVER is 5-1 in Reds last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six games.  The OVER is 4-2 in Phillies last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in four of those six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Marlins UNDER 9

LoanDepot Park in Miami is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.  There will be 11 MPH winds blowing in from center to boot today to help us cash this UNDER 9 ticket.

I like both young starters going today in Ryne Nelson and Braxton Garrett.  Nelson has posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings in the big leagues.  Garrett has posted a 4.13 ERA in 137 1/3 innings in the big leagues.

The Diamondbacks are scoring just 2.9 runs per game on the road this season and 2.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  The Marlins are scoring just 3.3 runs per game on the season and 2.5 runs per game at home.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Garrett's last seven starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Garrett's last 18 starts overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/A's OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket.  Temperatures will be in the 60's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland.  With these two gas cans on the mound, it's not like we need the help.

Shuntaro Fujinami has been the worst starter in baseball thus far, going 0-2 with a 17.57 ERA and 2.252 WHIP in two starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings.  The A's have a taxed bullpen as they will be playing for a 9th consecutive day after allowing 17, 8, 4, 12, 5, 11, 11 and 9 runs in their last eight games, respectively.

Carlos Carrasco is 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 2/3 innings.  The Mets are missing their closer and don't have a great bullpen right now, either.

The OVER is 9-1-1 in A's last 11 games overall with combined scores of 10 runs or more in nine of those 11 games.  The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Oakland.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Hawks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have come up clutch here down the stretch with these games mattering most.  They have gone 4-1 SU in games in which they were actually trying and not resting starters, including their dominant 116-105 win at Miami as 5.5-point underdogs in the Play-In to punch their ticket into the playoffs.

The Hawks are brimming with confidence now and ready to give the Celtics a run for their money in Game 1 of this series today.  The Celtics are getting a lot of love after making the NBA Finals last year.  But they kind of snuck up on everyone in the playoffs last year, and now they are the hunted instead of the hunters.  Asking them to win by double-digits in Game 1 to beat us is asking too much.  

The Hawks are actually more battle-tested and ready after playing a meaningful game earlier this week.  Boston hasn't played a meaningful game since April 4th and could be rusty to open this series as a result.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pirates/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket today between the Pirates and Cardinals.  Temperatures will be in the 70's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.  With these two gas cans on the mound, it's not like we need the help.

Steven Matz is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 22 base runners in 11 innings.  Matz is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA in his last two starts against the Pirates, allowing 12 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

Roansy Contreras is 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 innings.  Contreras has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in two career starts at Busch Stadium.

Pittsburgh is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after allowing 3 runs or less in two consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +148

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the most overrated teams in baseball this season.  They are 7-6 but you'd be down $320 betting $100 per game on them thus far.  They are once again too heavily favored over the Cubs tonight, and they shouldn't be favored at all considering the big advantage the Cubs have on the mound.

Justin Steele has posted a 3.35 ERA in 188 innings with 196 K's in his career in the majors.  Steele is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 1.000 WHP in two starts this season while allowing just one earned run in 12 innings.  He'll be backed but a Cubs lineup that is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall including 9.0 runs per game on the road this season.

Noah Syndergaard went 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA last season between the Angels and Phillies.  He is off to a rough start this season for the Dodgers, going 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in two starts while allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings.  Both starts came against the Diamondbacks.  He is 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

20* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after upsetting the Pelicans 123-118 on the road last game.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are questioning themselves after blowing a double-digit lead and scoring just 16 points in the final 16 minutes in an OT loss to the Lakers.

The Timberwolves are also dealing with the Rudy Gobert distractions and some significant injuries heading into this one.  I think 5.5 points is too many for them to be laying against this up-and-coming Thunder team that has been consistently undervalued for two straight seasons and one that just has a knack for playing in close games.

The Thunder are 11-1 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket tonight between the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals.  Temperatures will be in the 70's tonight at Kauffman Stadium with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left.

Charlie Morton got off to a terrible start last season and history is repeating itself this season.  Morton is 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 5 earned runs and 22 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.  Morton is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA in four career starts against the Royals.

Brady Singer is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts for the Royals this season while allowing 6 earned runs in 11 innings.  He faces one of the best lineups in baseball in the Braves who are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season including 5.3 runs per game on the road.  The Royals just hung 10 runs on the Rangers last game and come into this series with some confidence at the plate.

The Braves are 15-3 OVER in interleague games over the last two seasons.  Morton is 9-1 OVER in his last 10 road starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  The OVER is 15-4 in Morton's last 19 night starts.  The OVER is 11-2 in Singer's last 13 starts as a dog of +100 to +150.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -114

The Boston Red Sox have lost four consecutive games and their bullpen is taxed as they will be playing for 7th consecutive day after giving up 7, 9 and 9 runs to the Rays in their last three games coming in.  The Los Angeles Angels will be fresh after having yesterday off with a rested bullpen.

The Angels have a big advantage on the mound over the Red Sox tonight as well.  Patrick Sandoval is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing only 2 earned runs in 11 innings.  He'll be opposed by Tanner Houck, who is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA while allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings to the Orioles and Tigers.  This is a step up in class facing this potent Los Angeles lineup.

The Angels are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston is 18-39 in its last 57 games following a loss.  Bet the Angels Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -119

The Tampa Bay Rays are 13-0 this season with 11 wins by 4 runs or more and 12 wins by 2 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.8 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.3 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They have hit more home runs (32) than runs allowed (30) on the season.  The Rays will be motivated to break the modern day record of 13 straight wins to start a season with their 14th victory Friday in Game 1 of this series at Toronto.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Drew Rasmussen is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.231 WHIP in two starts this season while pitching 13 shutout innings and allowing only 3 base runners with 15 K's.  Rasmussen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.

Jose Berrios went 12-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season.  He is off to a terrible start this season, going 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in two starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  Berrios is 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 2 innings of a 10-5 loss to Tampa Bay in his last start against them.  Bet the Rays Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rays/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Tampa Bay Rays are 13-0 this season and scoring 7.8 runs per game.  They are more than capable of covering this 9-run total on their own inside the hitter-friendly confines of Rogers Center.  Drew Rasmussen is a stud, but the Blue Jays will score enough runs to help push this one OVER the total.

Jose Berrios went 12-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season.  He is off to a terrible start this season, going 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in two starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  Berrios is 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 2 innings of a 10-5 loss to Tampa Bay in his last start against them.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Rays last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 13-3 in Berrios' last 16 starts during the first half of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

The Chicago Bulls come into this game with a ton of confidence after coming back from 19 points down to beat the Raptors last game.  I think they are once again catching too many points against the Miami Heat tonight after the Heat are questioning themselves after getting upset 105-116 at home by the Hawks in a game they were never really in.

Adding to the Bulls' confidence is the fact that they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Heat this season with three outright upset victories as underdogs.  It should be more of the same here as I expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Chicago is 14-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Miami is 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-104)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 12-0 this season with 10 wins by 4 runs or more and 11 wins by 2 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.7 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.2 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They have hit more home runs (30) than runs allowed (27) on the season.  The Rays improve to 13-0 this season when they host the Boston Red Sox for Game 4 of this series this afternoon.

Tampa Bay has a big advantage on the mound today with Jeffrey Springs over Corey Kluber.  Springs went 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings last season.  He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.538 WHIP in two starts this season, pitching 13 shutout innings while allowing only 7 base runners with 19 K's to boot.

Corey Kluber went 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays last season, so they are very familiar with his stuff.  Kluber is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 14 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 4 innings in his last two starts against the Rays.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Playoff intensity defense is a different animal.  Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season.  But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS.  This is one of those totals.

The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the Bulls rank 18th, so this game will be played in the half court.  The Bulls have been improved defensively since getting Patrick Beverly and rank 3rd in defensive rating over the past 15 games.  The Raptors rank 5th in defensive rating over their past 15 games.

This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 202, 208, 217 and 212 points, respectively.  As you can see, these teams have combined to go UNDER this 213.5-point total in three of their last four meetings, and those were regular season meetings.  I'll be surprised if these teams come close to topping this 213.5-point total while playing with playoff-intensity defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -125

The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-0 this season with 10 wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.5 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 1.8 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They have hit more home runs (29) than runs allowed (20) on the season.  The Rays improve to 12-0 this season when they host the Boston Red Sox for Game 3 of this series tonight.

The only reason the Rays are a short favorite today is because they are going with an opener in Taj Bradley.  But that's not a problem as they have the deepest bullpen in the majors which is why they have no problem deploying an opener.

I'll gladly fade Chris Sale, who is a shell of his former self due to injury.  Sale has posted an 11.25 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings.  Sale has allowed 10 runs, 6 earned and 20 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rays.

Sale is 1-10 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. a AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better in his career.  Tampa Bay is the gift that keeps on giving.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* Mariners/Cubs Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 11

The wind was blowing out yesterday at Wrigley and the Mariners and Cubs combined for 23 runs.  It will be more of the same today with a similar forecast calling for temperatures in the 70's with over 20 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Marcus Stroman is off to a great start this season which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Logan Gilbert also tends to get some respect from the books.  Both are quality starters, but neither stands a chance of keeping the ball in the park with the forecast.

The OVER is 14-3 in Gilbert's last 17 road starts following a team loss.  The OVER is 22-7-1 in Mariners last 30 interleague road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 232.5

Playoff intensity defense is a different animal.  Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season.  But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS.  This is one of those totals.

The Lakers were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA after the All-Star Break.  The Timberwolves were great defensively down the stretch to try and get into the playoffs, allowing 108 or fewer points in five of their last eight games overall.

This has been an UNDER series.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings, including 213 or fewer in five of the seven.  This 232.5-point total has been set too high based on series history, plus when you factor in this game will be played with playoff-intensity defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Giants OVER 8

The forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants tonight.  Temperatures will be in the 50's with whopping 25 MPH winds blowing out to center at Oracle Park tonight.

Dustin May and Alex Wood aren't good enough to keep this total from flying over.  Wood allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Dodgers.  May has faced the Diamondbacks twice this season and he is not as good as his numbers suggest.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last four games overall with combined scores of 9, 20, 17 and 10 runs.  The OVER is 5-2 in Giants last seven games overall with combined scores of 10 runs or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Twins OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket tonight.  Temperatures will be in the 80's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left at Target Field in Minnesota tonight.  These are two very good offenses who will easily combine to top this 7.5-run total given the forecast.

The Twins are capable of covering this OVER on their own.  Lance Lynn is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.  All three starts came last season as well.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in White Sox last nine games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in eight of those 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Twins -147

I expect the Minnesota Twins to bounce back from their Game 1 loss to the White Sox tonight.  They have a big advantage on the mound and lost to Chicago ace Dylan Cease last night.  Now they take a big step down in class of opposing starting pitcher as Cease is the only reliable starter the White Sox have.

Lance Lynn is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.  All three starts came last season as well.

Pablo Lopez was a great get for the Twins in the offseason as he was part of the Marlins' underrated rotation.  Lopez went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.730 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just one earned runs and 9 base runners in 12 1/3 innings with 16 K's.

The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Twins Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -165

The Tampa Bay Rays are 10-0 this season with nine wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.6 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 1.8 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Rays improve to 11-0 this season when they host the Boston Red Sox for Game 2 of this series tonight.

Shane McClanahan went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 28 starts last season with 194 K's in 166 1/3 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two starts this season allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.  He owns the Red Sox, going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Garrett Whitlock will be making his first start of the season.  He only pitched 5 innings in spring training and is behind to start the season.  Now he has to face the hottest lineup in baseball here in the Rays and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Boston is 1-11 in its last 12 games after scoring one run or fewer in a division loss.  Tampa Bay is 44-13 in its last 57 games as a favorite of -150 or more.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Dodgers and Giants tonight.  There is expected to be 18 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

That's why I'm willing to back an OVER in a game involving Julio Urias, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  But the Dodgers are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own against Logan Webb and the Giants.

Webb has allowed 12 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  The Giants have a 5.40 bullpen ERA this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game.  The Dodgers are scoring 6.0 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers are 15-4 OVER in their last 19 games after allowing 8 runs or more.  San Francisco is 16-5 OVER in its last 21 games after a combined score of 4 runs or less.  The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games following a loss.  The OVER is 12-5 in Giants last 17 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Angels OVER 9.5

It just shows how poor the Washington Nationals are this season when Patrick Corbin is their Opening Day starter.  Corbin went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2021 and 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 2022.

It has been more of the same for Corbin to open 2023.  He is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 8 earned runs and 20 base runners in 9 innings.  He'll get rocked by the Angels again tonight.

Los Angeles has one of the most potent lineups in baseball and is scoring 6.2 runs per game on the season, including 7.7 runs per game at home.  But the Angels have a shaky pitching staff outside of Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson.  They are allowing 4.6 runs per game including 7.0 runs per game at home.  Their bullpen has a 4.45 ERA on the season.

Jose Suarez was rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Mariners in his first start this season.  Now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 7.7 runs per game in their last three games overall.  The Nationals will get their runs to help contribute to this OVER, and the Angels are capable of covering it on their own after scoring 20 runs in their last two games over the weekend.  

The forecast will also help us cash this OVER ticket.  It will be 70 degrees in Los Angeles tonight with 8 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Nationals last seven games overall.  The OVER is 22-9-2 in Nationals last 33 interleague home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +120

The San Diego Padres are 6-2 in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in seven of those eight games.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball, and I don't think they should be underdogs to the New York Mets tonight.

Father time catches up to everyone, and this might just be the year it catches up to Max Scherzer.  He is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings.

Yu Darvish is coming off a great season in San Diego and was sharp in his first start this season, allowing just one earned run in 5 innings to the Diamondbacks.  Darvish owns the Mets having never lost to them, going 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.754 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  

Scherzer allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres and has now allowed 14 earned runs and 7 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Padres Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -110

The Philadelphia Phillies are really struggling to start the season.  They are 3-6 and scoring just 3.3 runs per game with a depleted lineup, and allowing 5.8 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in the National League.  Their bullpen has a 6.75 ERA on the season and is one of the worst bullpens in the league.

The Marlins have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Sandy Alcantara over Matt Strahm.  Alcantara won the NL Cy Young last season while going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.980 WHIP with 207 K's.  He is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two starts this season allowing just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.

Matt Strahm is getting his first real crack at being a starter this season and isn't likely to go deep into this game.   That will lead the Marlins to getting into Philly's woeful bullpen early.  Strahm allowed 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start against the Marlins.

The Marlins are 10-0 in Alcantara's 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record over the alst two seasons and winning by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Marlins Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -150

The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-0 this season with all nine wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 8.3 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.0 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays improve to 10-0 this season when they host the Boston Rd Sox for Game 1 of this series Monday.  The Red Sox have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and are allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

Nick Pivetta is 40-51 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.390 WHIP in his career.  Pivetta is 1-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay.  He posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in the spring allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 35 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Bet the Rays Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again.

Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here.  I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces.

Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night.  That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons.

The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.  

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Timberwolves UNDER 227

Both Minnesota and New Orleans have a lot to play for today.  The winner will likely be the 8th seed while the loser will likely be the 9th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seed in the play-in round.  With so much at stake, defensive intensity in this game will be high.

The UNDER is 19-7 in Pelicans last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Timberwolves last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Timberwolves last 15 home games.  Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER in home games following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +140

The Milwaukee Brewers are overvalued after a 6-2 start this season.  The Cardinals finally ended their six-game winning streak while stopping a four-game losing streak of their own with a 6-0 victory yesterday.  And I like the value we are getting on the Cardinals today as big road underdogs.

Jake Woodford pitched 5 shutout innings while allowing only 3 base runners in a 2-1 win over the Brewers in his lone career start against them.  Freddy Peralta has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and optimal odds to get the 1st pick in the draft.  They are no longer tanking to close out the season and trying to win these final couple games.  They pulled the 122-115 upset at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs last game, and I think they have a great shot to pull the upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Chicago today.

The Bulls have nothing to play for and are locked into the 10th seed.  They will be in the play-in round against the Raptors.  They are unlikely to play starters today as a result, and could care less about winning this game.  They should not be this big of favorites when they are unmotivated and just trying to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games following two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-145)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-0 this season with all eight wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 8.0 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.2 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 3 of this series today.  The A's are 2-6 this season scoring just 3.4 runs per game and allowing 7.6 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Drew Rasmussen fired 6 shutout innings with 7 K's while allowing only two base runners in a 6-2 win at Washington in his first start this season.  He'll be opposed by James Kaprielian, who allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 12-11 loss to the Guardians in his first start this season.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -115

The Los Angeles Angels should be much bigger favorites tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays considering the big advantage they have on the mound.  I'll gladly back Tyler Anderson over Jose Berrios at this short number.

Anderson went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 178 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.  He posted a 1.35 ERA in the spring while allowing just 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.  And he was dominant in his first tart this season pitching 6 shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the A's.

Berrios is decent at home but terrible on the road throughout his career, especially last season.  Berrios posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season, including a 6.36 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 16 road starts.  He just allowed 8 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings at Kansas City in his first start this season, and the Royals aren't nearly as good an offensive team as the Angels.

Berrios is 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in seven career starts against the Angels.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +134

The Milwaukee Brewers are 6-0 in their last six games overall and should not be this big of a home underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals today.  The Brewers have scored a total of 39 runs in their last five games and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 0-4 in their last four games overall while scoring a total of 7 runs in those four defeats.  The Cardinals may have a slight advantage on the mound with Montgomery over Lauer in this one, but I think the Brewers make up for it at the plate with as hot as they have been compared to how cold the Cardinals have been.

The Brewers are 15-5 in Lauer's last 20 starts following a win in their previous game.  Montgomery's teams are 5-11 (-13.2 Units) in his last 16 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-135)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 7-0 this season with all seven wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.6 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.6 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 2 of this series tonight.  The A's are 2-5 this season scoring just 3.9 runs per game and allowing 7.1 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Jeffrey Springs went 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings last season.  He pitched 14 shutout innings in spring training while allowing only seven base runners with 24 K's.  He allowed one base runner in 6 innings with 12 K's in a dominant first start against the Tigers this season.

Shintaro Fujinami was rocked for 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 13-1 loss to the Angels in his major league debut this season.  He struggles with control which was evident in the spring with 17 walks in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -8

The New York Knicks are locked into the 5th seed in the East and will play the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.  They could care less about winning these last two games.  Their three best players will sit tonight in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett.  They won't be competitive as a result.

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for still trying to get a Top 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are tied with the Lakers for 7th, one game back of both the Warriors and Clippers, and one game ahead of the Timberwolves.

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming up clutch again.  Now they will make easy work of the short-handed, unmotivated Knicks tonight.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors ML +105

The Boston Celtics are locked into the 2nd seed in the East and have nothing to play for.  There's a good chance they rest all their starters tonight.  They should not be favored over the Toronto Raptors as a result.

The Toronto Raptors are still battling for play-in positioning in the East one game behind the Hawks for the 8th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seeds.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team tonight to win this game outright as an underdog.

The Raptors have saved their best basketball for last as they are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with three of those losses coming to the top three teams in the East in the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics all by 7 points or fewer.  Toronto is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 6-0 this season with all six wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.3 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.2 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 1 of this series tonight.  The A's are 2-4 this season scoring just 3.7 runs per game and allowing 6.8 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Zach Eflin held the Tigers to one earned run in 5 innings of a 12-2 victory in his first start this season.  Eflin fired 4 shutout innings against the A's in his lone career start against them last season.  Ken Waldichuk allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings in his first start this season against the Angels in a 6-0 defeat.  Waldichuk has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in four of his last six starts dating back to last season.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Heat are still playing to try to avoid the play-in round or at the very least earn the 7th seed which will give them the advantage in the play-in round. They are 1.5 games behind the Nets for 6th and 1.5 games ahead of the Hawks for 7th.

While this game means something to the Heat, it means absolutely nothing to the 76ers. They are locked into the 3rd seed in the East. Don't be surprised if they rest their starters over the final three games as a result. At the very least, they won't be motivated to win these games.

Miami is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia winning its last two trips to Philly outright as underdogs. Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Giants and White Sox today. Temps will be in the 50's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago this afternoon.

Alex Wood and Lance Lynn are both past their primes. The White Sox have gone for at least 9 combined runs in five consecutive games and are 5-0 OVER in those five games. The Giants have gone for 10 or more combined runs in three of their last four games and are 3-1 OVER during this stretch.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings in Chicago. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Tigers OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket this afternoon. Temps will be in the 50's in Detroit with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

Chris Sale is a shell of his former self due to injury. He allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 innings against the Orioles in his first start this season.

Spencer Turnbull is a gas can for the Tigers. He allowed 7 earned runs and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the Rays in his first start this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lakers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232

The Lakers and Clippers are tied for the 6th and 7th spots in the West. The 6th will avoid the play-in round, while the 7th won't so there is a lot at stake here. These teams hate each other as it is, and I expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one.

The Lakers have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break. The Clippers have been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA all season. This is a very high total considering what is at stake here.

The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Lakers last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 30-13 in Clippers last 43 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-140)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 5-0 this season and scoring 7.4 runs per game. The Washington Nationals are 1-4 this season and scoring just 3.0 runs per game. The Rays should win this game by two runs or more today given their big advantage on the mound.

Shane McClanahan went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 28 starts last season. He had a 0.93 ERA and 0.724 WHIP in the spring. He pitched 6 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Tigers in his first start this season.

Pat Corbin was one of the worst starters in baseball last season and it just shows how poor a shape the Nationals are in this season with him being their Opening Day starter. Corbin went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He allowed 4 runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings in his opening start against the Braves.

The Nationals are 4-24 in Corbin's last 28 starts as an underdog of +100 or higher and losing by 3.9 runs per game. Washington is 2-18 in Corbin's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 3.5 runs per game. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Nationals OVER 8.5

Pat Corbin was one of the worst starters in baseball last season and it just shows how poor a shape the Nationals are in this season with him being their Opening Day starter. Corbin went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He allowed 4 runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings in his opening start against the Braves.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 5-0 this season and scoring 7.4 runs per game. I think the Rays are capable of covering this total on their own like they did last night in a 10-6 victory over the Nationals.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket. Temperatures will be in the 80's this afternoon with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left-center. The Nationals will score a couple runs to help cash this OVER ticket as well. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-105)

The new MLB rule changes favor teams with speed, contact hitting and fewer strikeouts. No team benefited more from the rule changes than the Cleveland Guardians. That is showing up in the early going as they are 4-1 this season and scoring 5.8 runs per game.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound over the Oakland A's, who are 1-3 and scoring just 3.5 runs per game. Shane Bieber is 54-26 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his career in the big leagues. Bieber had a 1.54 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in the Spring while allowing only 4 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. He fired 6 shutout innings agains the Mariners in his first start this season.

JP Sears is the 5th starter for the A's this season. He posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in Oakland last season allowing 25 earned runs in 48 innings. Sears posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in the Spring allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.

Bieber's teams are 10-0 in his last 10 road starts after he allowed zero earned runs in his previous start and winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Guardians on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls have saved their best basketball for last coming up clutch to not only make the playoffs, but to also try and improve their seeding. Now they have a chance to change spots with the Atlanta Hawks and move up again, and I think they take advantage with a blowout victory at home.

The Bulls are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are coming off a pair of blowout wins by 30 at Charlotte and by 21 at home over Memphis. They have won two of their three meetings with the Hawks with their lone loss coming by a single point at the buzzer.

The Hawks have been trading wins and losses and are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are without De'Andre Hunter (15.4 PPG) and Trae Young (26.2 PPG, 9.9 APG) tonight.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hawks are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games following a win. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season just to make the playoffs and then gave the Phoenix Suns a run for their money in the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again this season, and that experience from last season is really helping them.

The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by 8 points or more and six of them by double-digits. Their lone loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

The Sacramento Kings are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the Pacific Division. They are also just kind of going through the motions right now essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the West. They just lost outright at home to the Spurs are 16-point favorites. This young team is not used to the pressure of playoff basketball and will not handle it as well as the Pelicans will tonight.

The Pelicans are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Kings with all three wins in blowouts by 32, 14 and 30 points. New Orleans is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% or higher this season. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Cardinals OVER 10

The Braves and Cardinals have two of the most potent lineups in baseball. The Cardinals are scoring 6.5 runs per game this season while the Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game.

Two bottom end starters in Dylan Dodd and Steven Matz will have to try and contain these potent lineups. They'll also have to try and contain them with the weather being perfect conditions for a slug fest.

Indeed, forecasts are calling for 80 degrees with over 20 MPH winds blowing out to left in St. Louis. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in St. Louis. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 10

Two gas cans are starting for the Blue Jays and Royals tonight. Yusei Kikuchi is 21-31 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.424 WHIp in his career. Kris Bubic is 10-26 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his career.

These two starts will have no chance of containing these lineups today due to the weather. Temps will be in the 80's with 24 MPH winds blowing out to left at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back all season, especially of late. They continue to fly under the radar as this is a young, talented team with a very bright future and they continue showing up on a nightly basis.

The Magic are 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over the Knicks and Clippers. They were even competitive in all three losses losing by 3 at Phoenix, by 6 at the Lakers and by 5 at Memphis.

The Magic can stay within 5.5 of the Cavaliers at home tonight and possibly pull off the upset. Cleveland is just 18-21 SU on the road this season. They are kind of going through the motions right now basically locked into the 4th seed in the East. They are 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall losing at Atlanta, losing by 16 at home to the Knicks and only beating the depleted Pacers by 10 as 12-point home favorites. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Yankees OVER 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 3-1 OVER in their first four games this season with 9 or more combined runs in three of the four and allowing 37 runs in four games. The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in all four games this season while averaging 6.0 runs per game.

Two bottom end starters go today in Matt Strahm and Domingo German. Strahm is making his transition from bullpen to starter this season and it won't go well against the potent Yankees. German has been inconsistent and had an 8.71 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in the spring while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings.

German is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The Yankees are 15-1 OVER in their last 16 games vs. NL teams that average 3.5 or fewer runs per game. The OVER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings in New York. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.

San Diego State is lucky to be here.  The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each.  They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer.  FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.

Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass.  The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds.  San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.

But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department.  Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense.  These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.

I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times.  The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.

UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference.  It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Cardinals OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals have two of the best lineups in baseball. The Braves scored 15 runs in three games with the Nationals over the weekend, while the Cardinals scored 22 runs in their three games with the Blue Jays over the weekend.

Charlie Morton went 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Braves last season and is past his prime. He allowed 28 homers in 172 innings and is a notorious slow starter to the season. Morton has posted a 6.00 ERA in the spring while allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings.

Jake Woodford is entering his first full season as a starter for the Cardinals. This is a tall task for him to open the season against this potent Atlanta lineup.

The Braves are 10-1 OVER in Morton's last 11 starts following a loss. The OVER is 26-9-3 in Braves last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in St. Louis. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Red Sox OVER 9

The Boston Red Sox are a dead nuts OVER team. They went OVER the total in all three meetings with the Orioles at Fenway Park over the weekend with 19, 17 and 14 combined runs in the three games. They have a very good lineup but a terrible rotation and bullpen.

The Pirates have a bad lineup and a bad rotation, but even they will get their bats going today largely due to the weather. The forecast is calling for temps in the 50's with 17 MPH winds blowing out toward the Green Monster in left-center at Fenway Park tonight.

Johan Ovieda has a 4.34 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in his three seasons in the big leagues across 143 innings. Oviedo posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Kutter Crawford has a 5.90 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 79 1/3 innings in the big leagues. Crawford has allowing 8 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings for a 4.15 ERA in Spring Training. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Yankees OVER 7.5

The New York Yankees have one of the most potent lineups in baseball. The just scored 5 runs or more in all three games with the Giants over the weekend. The Phillies are still potent even with their current injury situation, and their staff is clearly a weakness allowing 29 runs in three games against the Rangers over the weekend.

Nestor Cortes is a solid starter, but this total is too low because he is starting. Taijuan Walker is decent as well, but he was rocked for a 7.71 ERA and 1.929 WHIP while allowing 8 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in the spring. Aaron Judge has four career hits against Walker, all of which have gone for home runs. He has allowed 6 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The main reason for this play is the weather, which is calling for temps in the 50's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Yankee Stadium tonight. The ball will be flying out of this hitter-friendly park. The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in New York. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -112

The Chicago Cubs are coming off consecutive losses to the Milwaukee Brewers at home.  I look for the Cubs to bounce back today in Game 1 of this series against the Cincinnati Reds, who are coming off consecutive home wins over the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound today with Drew Smyly.  The left-hander went 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 22 starts for the Cubs last season.  Smyly has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 (7-0 money line) with a 2.91 ERA and 1.118 WHIP on seven career starts against them.

Connor Overton was terrible in the spring for the Reds.  He posted a 15.43 ERA and 2.486 WHIP while allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 11 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

This total is lower than it should be due to Denver coming off consecutive sub-par offensive showings while playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and playing without some of their best players.  Well, the Nuggets should have all hands on deck tonight with the possible return of Nikola Jokic.  I think it goes OVER the total whether or not he plays.

The Warriors rank 1st in the NBA in pace making them a dead nuts OVER team.  They are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and the in the bottom half in defensive efficiency.  They take on a Nuggets team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, which has been the key to their amazing season to this point.

Each of the two previous meetings this season between the Warriors and Nuggets were shootouts.  They combined for 251 points in their first meeting and 251 points again in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same in this third and final meeting Sunday.

The OVER is 40-13 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 20-8 in Nuggets last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season to the Boston Celtics when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have no had the last two days off to rest and recover and will come back pissed off after that defeat.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Bucks will be looking for revenge from a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia on March 4th in their most recent meeting.  It's a much worst spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.

The Bucks are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss and haven't lost consecutive games since January 12-14.  The Bucks only lead the Celtics by 1.5 games for 1st place in the East so they have no margin for error, also adding to their motivation.

Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -15.5

The Sacramento Kings are still looking to improve their playoff positioning as they trail the Grizzlies by two games for 2nd place in the West.  They are handling their business right now beating the Blazers by 40 and 24 points in their last two games.  Now they get another Western Conference bottom feeder in the Spurs tonight, and the result should be the same.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and tanking to try and get the No. 1 pick.  That's evident by the fact that all six losses came by 11 points or more including a 35-point loss at New Orleans, a 36-point loss at Milwaukee and a 44-point loss at Boston during this stretch.  They are resting almost all of their best players right now and are playing as a G League team.

The Kings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs.  San Antonio is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Angels -150

The Los Angeles Angels have a big advantage on the mound today.  Tyler Anderson went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 178 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.  Anderson psoted a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in the spring allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.  Anderson has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in three career starts against them allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Ken Waldichuck went 2-2 with a 4.93 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the A's last season allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers as a rookie.  Waldichuk was a disaster in the spring, posting a 10.54 ERA and 2.268 WHIP while allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 31 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  The Angels just hung 13 runs on the A's yesterday and should stay hot at the plate against Waldichuk.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are battling to make the playoffs right now.  They are in 9th place in the West but just 2 games ahead of the Mavericks in 11th.  They have a great chance of improving their standing, and they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly today.

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.6 points per game.  Their last three losses have come by 24, 40 and 34 points.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Timberwolves.

This is a big step down in class for the Timberwolves after playing 16 consecutive games against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in round if the season were to end today.  They have won four of their last six games including upset road wins over the Knicks, Warriors and Kings.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Portland.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -120

Jameson Taillon is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.128 WHIP for the Yankees last season.  The Cubs were wise to go out and get him.  Taillon is 3-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 11 career starts against Milwaukee.  He posted a 3.93 ERA and 0.764 WHIP in the spring while allowing just 8 earned runs and 14 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 23 K's.

Eric Lauer really struggled in the spring for the Brewers with an 11.57 ERA and 2.486 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 29 base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  Lauer has posted a 5.03 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs.

Taillon's teams are 90-54 in his 144 career starts.  The Brewers are 0-6 in their last six games after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game.  The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight home games.  Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -146

The Kansas City Royals haven't scored a single run in two games.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball, and it's not going to get any easier for them against Joe Ryan today.

Ryan went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 27 starts last season for the Twins.  Ryan has never lost to the Royals, going 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA an 0.833 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He posted a 2.16 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in the spring while allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Brad Keller posted a 5.39 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 26 starts in 2021 and wasn't much better in 2022, going 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 139 2/3 innings.  Keller has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.  He posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in the spring while allowing 11 earned runs in 20 innings.

The Royals are 1-11 in Keller's last 12 home starts following a loss.  The Twins are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Twins Sunday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-112)

The Atlanta Braves have won the first two games of this series 7-2 and 7-1.  It should be more of the same here in Game 3.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, while the Nationals have one of the worst lineups in baseball after trading away Juan Soto last season.

Jared Shuster is just the next great young arm for the Braves.  He makes his MLB debut today after a dominant spring with a 1.45 ERA and 0.589 WHIP while allowing just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 18 2/3 innings with 18 K's.

Mackenzie Gore went 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 70 innings for the Padres last season as a rookie.  Gore posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in the spring while allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 33 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.

The Braves are 43-16 in the last 59 meetings.  The Nationals are 16-54 in their last 70 games as a home underdog of +125 or more and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.

20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team.  The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury.

The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season.  New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 8.5

The weather is the main reason I'm on the OVER between the Pirates and Reds today.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is already one of the most hitter-friendly fields in baseball.  That is amplified today with winds blowing out to center at 25 MPH forecasted.

Rich Hill went 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.303 WHIP while allowing 15 homers in 124 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season.  Hill posted a 9.24 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in spring training this season while allowing 13 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo is a nice young prospect for the Reds after going 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 19 starts last season. But he allowed 13 homers in 103 1/3 innings and is susceptible to the long ball just like Hill. Lodolo allowed two homers in 16 2/3 innings in the spring.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Pirates last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  These are two young lineups with a lot of potential this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Royals UNDER 8.5

The wind was blowing out in Game 1 of this series between the Royals and Twins and they still managed just two combined runs in a 2-0 Minnesota victory.  Now the wind will be blowing in from left-center at roughly 11 MPH in Game 2 Saturday, and it should be another pitcher's duel as a result.

Sonny Gray owns the Royals going 7-2 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He faced them three times last season allowing just one earned run in 19 innings.  Jordan Lyles has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins.  He held them to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against them last season.

The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-133)

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball and Spencer Strider is one of the best starters in baseball.  He went 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.995 WHIP last season with 202 K's in 131 2/3 innings and finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting.  He allowed only 7 homers all season and posted a 1.69 ERA while allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in spring training.

The wind is going to be blowing out to right-center in Washington today at roughly 25 MPH, so keeping the ball down and missing bats like Strider does is going to be important.  He'll be up against one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Nationals, who traded away Juan Soto last year and are rebuilding.

Josiah Gray went 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 28 starts for the Nationals last season while allowing a whopping 38 homers in 148 2/3 innings.  He does not keep the ball down and is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is bad news for him and the Nationals today with the wind blowing out.

The Braves are 42-16 in the last 58 meetings.  The Nationals are 16-53 in their last 69 games as a home underdog of +125 or more and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Cubs UNDER 6.5

This is mostly a bet on the UNDER due to weather.  Temperatures will be in the 30's with 29 MPH winds expected to be blowing in from left-center at Wrigley Field today.  It's going to be nearly impossible for either team to hit home runs in these conditions.  These are two below-average lineups as well.

Brandon Woodruff is 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.  Justin Steele is 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 18 innings in his last three starts against the Brewers.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5

The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now.  They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs.  They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result.

The Spurs are clearly tanking right now.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah.  They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors.

The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it.  They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management.  The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now.

San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season.  The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.  Bet the Warriors Friday.