Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -2

The Utah Utes have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season. This is a team that has beaten the likes of Washington on the road, and Colorado and Arizona State at home. It has also taken Arizona down to the wire in both meetings, falling by just 3 points on the road and 4 at home to the Wildcats.

Utah is a respectable 9-7 at home this season. It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-6 in true road games this year. It will also be out for revenge on the Beavers after losing the first meeting 64-82 on the road on February 6th.

It appears Oregon State has given up on its season. It has lost four straight with three of those coming by double-digits to drop to 13-16 on the year. It is also coming off a big loss at in-state rival Oregon, setting the Beavers up for a letdown spot here.

Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. Take Utah Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -2.5

The Colorado Buffaloes (19-9) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize that a home win over Oregon tonight would go a long way in to putting them on the right side of that bubble. That's why the Buffaloes won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

Colorado is 11-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. It has impressive home wins over the likes of Colorado State (70-61), Stanford (75-54), Cal (81-71) and Arizona (71-58). Oregon is actually getting outscored on the road this season with losses to the likes of Cal (54-58), Stanford (52-76) and UTEP (84-91).

The Buffaloes have won three of their last four meetings with the Ducks. Colorado is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* Stanford/Cal ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -5

The Cal Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country. They should be a much heavier home favorite over Stanford tonight because of it. The Bears will be out for revenge tonight from a 59-69 loss at Stanford on January 19th in their first meeting of the season, so they have plenty of reason to be motivated.

Cal has won seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall coming in. That includes two wins over Oregon, a victory at Arizona, and home victories over UCLA and Colorado. The Bears have gotten to 20-9 on the season to put themselves on the right side of the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

Stanford has lost four of its last six games to drop to 17-13 on the season. It is now on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with almost zero chance of getting in. That's why I look for it to fold tonight and to not even show up as it travels to face the Bears. The Cardinal are just 4-6 in true road games this year.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bears is the fact that they are just one-half game back of both Oregon and UCLA for the Pac-12 title. They'll be motivated for that, plus this is their final home game of the season, which means it's Senior Night. They certainly want to send their seniors out with one final victory and keep their momentum as they head into the Pac-12 Tournament.

Cal is 7-0 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Cal is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Cal Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls should not be catching this many points against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. San Antonio played well in its first game without Tony Parker with a 114-75 home victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons. It is now overvalued heading into its second straight game without Parker because of it.

Parker has arguably been as valuable a player to his team as any other player in the league. A good team like the Bulls will be able to exploit the loss of Parker in this one.

Chicago is one of the most resilient teams in the league. Off a 92-97 loss at Indiana on Sunday, and looking for revenge from an 89-103 home loss to the Spurs in their first meeting of the season on February 11th, I look for a tremendous effort from the Bulls tonight.

Tom Thibodeau is 45-24 ATS off a loss as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season. It is coming back to win 96.1 to 85.2 in this spot, or by an average of 10.9 points/game. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* WVU/Oklahoma ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma -10

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been coming on very strong to close out the season to put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They also realize that a loss to West Virginia tonight could put them on the wrong side, so they won't be lacking any motivation heading into this one.

Oklahoma has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall which includes impressive home wins over Kansas (72-66), Baylor (90-76) and Iowa State (86-69). Its only losses came in overtime on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas.

West Virginia has essentially packed it in as it has lost four straight while going 1-3 ATS in the process. Its losses include a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 road loss to Kansas. Oklahoma already beat WVU 67-57 on the road on January 5th in their first meeting of the season, and I like its chances of winning by 11-plus at home this time around.

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. The Mountaineers are just 3-8 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.6 points/game. Their three road wins have all come against Big 12 bottom feeders in TCU, Texas Tech and Texas.

This is Senior Night for the senior-led Sooners, which only adds to their motivation. Their top two scorers are seniors in Romero Osby (15.2 PPG) and Steven Pledger (11.9). Role players Andrew Fitzgerald (5.8 PPG) and Sam Grooms (4.8 PPG) are also seniors. Look for everyone to rally and try to get these guys one final home win tonight.

The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +3.5

The UConn Huskies are starting to realize that they cannot play in the postseason due to their postseason ban this year. I think it's starting to wear on these players, as evidenced by their recent performances. They are 19-9 on the season and would be an NCAA Tournament team if they were eligible.

The Huskies have lost back-to-back games coming in with setbacks to Georgetown and Cincinnati. I look for them to drop a third straight against a South Florida team that proved it wasn't going to quit on its season with a much-needed 83-73 home victory over DePaul last time out to stop the bleeding.

There's no question the Bulls will be the more motivated team tonight considering this is Senior Night for them. This is a senior-led team as two of their top three scorers are seniors in Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (10.4 PPG) and Jawanza Poland (9.1 PPG). Look for these South Florida players to rally and get Fitzpatrick and Poland a big win in the final home game of their careers.

UConn is 4-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. South Florida is 48-28 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with UConn dating back to 2008. Three of those six games went to overtime, including a 69-64 (OT) home win by the Huskies in their first meeting this season on February 3rd, which places the Bulls in revenge mode. Roll with South Florida Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Florida -18

The Florida Gators have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight to bury Vanderbilt. They are one win away from clinching their fourth outright SEC championship and second in three years. I believe they actually come into this game undervalued due to going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Commodores are overvalued after winning three straight over SEC bottom feeders Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn.

Adding to the Gators' motivation is the fact that this is Senior Night. This is certainly a senior-led team as its top three scorers are all seniors in Mike Rosario (12.9 PPG), Kenny Boynton (12.5) and Erik Murphy (12.4). Look for huge games from this trio as their teammates rally around them.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.5 points/game. Vanderbilt is just 13-15 on the season, including 5-9 in all road games. This team has no chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Gators bunch tonight.

Vanderbilt is 6-19 ATS after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1997. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Bet Florida Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic are showing awesome value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat. I'll gladly back them at this price in a game that I look to be close throughout.

Miami is clearly overvalued due to its current 15-game winning streak coming in. It has created expectations for itself in the eyes of the betting public and thus oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to.

Orlando has played Miami tough in recent meetings. Each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13 points or less, and two of the last three went to overtime. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Magic dating back to 2010.

Miami is 4-15 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Magic are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the Heat. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and I look for both defenses to prevail by game's send as neither team tops 95 points in this one.

Philadelphia allows 95.9 points/game while Atlanta yields 96.7 points/game this season. The 76ers really struggle offensively, scoring 92.1 points/game overall, including 90.2 points/game on the road. Atlanta puts up 97.4 points/game this season. Philly has scored 93 or fewer points in 13 of its last 15 games overall. It has also allowed less than 100 points in 12 of its last 15 games overall.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 185 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 179, 185, 185 and 166 points in their last four meetings, averaging 178.8 points/game in the process.

The UNDER is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. These three trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Indiana Pacers would have to beat the Boston Celtics by double-digits tonight to hand us a loss. I'll take my chances by backing these red-hot Celtics at a great price tonight.

Boston is 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall. This team remains underrated because it is playing without Rajon Rondo, but that loss has only brought this team closer together. The offense has really been clicking, averaging 102.4 points/game in their last five contests.

"That's the new us in a lot of ways, the ball finds the open guy," head coach Doc Rivers said. "It's simple, but it's hard to do unless you buy in. Everyone has bought in."

Sure, this is a back-to-back situation for Boston off a 109-101 win at Philadelphia last night, but it's really a non-factor despite clearly getting factored into this line. That's because it will still only be the 2nd game in 5 days for Boston as it last played on March 1st prior to that win over the 76ers. The Celtics won't be fatigued at all tonight.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Celtics. They have won three straight and eight of their last 11 meetings with the Pacers. The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -3

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a must-win situation tonight against Oklahoma State. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over these Cowboys tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble.

Iowa State will be out for revenge following a last-second 76-78 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting. I like its chances of getting payback tonight considering how well this team has played at home all season and even dating back to last year.

The Cyclones have won 22 of their last 23 home games since last season. Their lone loss was a fluke OT loss to Kansas on February 25th in which the refs completely blew the game, and Big 12 officials came back and admitted that.

This will be Senior Night for the Cyclones with Chris Babb, Korie Lucious, Will Clyburn and Tyrus McGee all laying it on the line to try and get a win in the final home game of their career inside magical Hilton Coliseum. These are four of Iowa State's top six scorers, combining to average nearly 48 points/game!

The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2005. Iowa State is 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* UNC/Maryland ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland PK

The Maryland Terrapins are a team squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament right now. A win over UNC tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble. I like their chances of picking up a "W" considering how well they have played at home this year.

Maryland is 20-9 overall and a brilliant 16-2 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 14.2 points/game at home this year. Its home wins include NC State and Duke.

North Carolina is just 6-6 on the road this season. It comes in overvalued due to its current five-game winning streak. With rival Duke on deck, the Tar Heels will be overlooking the Terrapins and looking ahead to that matchup with the Blue Devils.

UNC is 2-9 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-14 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 25-8 ATS in home games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Syracuse -18.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this game with DePaul highly motivated for a victory. They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak coming in with losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville, which are the three teams with the best records in the Big East.

Now, they get to face Big East punching bag DePaul to get back on track. The Blue Demons have lost four straight and 13 of their last 14 overall with their lone win coming at home over Rutgers. Syracuse has won its last two meetings with DePaul 87-68 on the road, and 107-59 at home.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Orange is the fact that this will be Senior Night. That means that they'll be honoring two of their top three scorers in Brandon Triche (14.2 PPG) and James Southerland (13.8 PPG). Look for this team to rally around each other and put an end to this skid while also getting these seniors one final home win by 20-plus points.

DePaul is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 22.7 points/game. The Orange are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by 22.9 points/game. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Kings UNDER 223

The books have clearly set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings. The betting public has been jumping all over the OVER in this contest, providing us with ample value to go against the grain and back the UNDER tonight folks.

Just one look at the season averages for these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Denver is scoring 105.5 points/game and allowing 101.6 points/game this season, combining with its opponents for 207.1 points/game. Sacramento is scoring 98.5 points/game and allowing 104.9 points/game, combining with its foes for 203.4 points/game.

A look at the recent history between these teams and it's also easy to see that the number is inflated. Not counting overtime, Sacramento and Denver have combined for 219 or fewer points in seven straight meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 205.7 points/game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors lower-scoring games. Denver won both meetings 121-93 at home and 122-97 on the road. The first meeting had a posted total of 204.5, with the second being 212.5. Now, in the third meeting, the books have set the number 18.5 points higher (223), providing us with plenty of value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Kansas State -21

Looking to regain a share of the conference lead, the Kansas State Wildcats will absolutely crush the TCU Horned Frogs at home tonight. This is also Senior Night for the Wildcats, meaning this will be the final home game for leading scorer Rodney McGruder (14.9 PPG) as well as Jordan Henriquez and Martavious Irving.

Kansas State clearly wont be lacking any motivated tonight as it looks to build on its 15-1 home record this year. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game at home. TCU is just 1-9 in true road games, getting outscored by 16.2 points/game.

TCU made its season by beating Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog. It has clearly packed it in since and is simply playing out its season. That's evident by the fact that the Horned Frogs are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which includes losses at Oklahoma (48-75), Iowa State (53-87) and Kansas (48-74).

The Horned Frogs are 0-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3.5

This is a must-win game for the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. At 18-11 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play, Iowa needs a big finish to get into the NCAA Tournament. It needs a win tonight, at home against Nebraska, and in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and it will likely be in as it would move above .500 in the brutal Big Ten.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to having won six of its last seven games overall. Most of those victories have come against Big Ten bottom feeders in Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska. This team should not be getting this much respect on the road tonight.

That's especially the case considering how well Iowa has played at home this season. It is 14-2 inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.8 points/game. It has home wins over NCAA Tournament contenders in Minnesota (72-51), Wisconsin (70-66) and Iowa State (80-71).

Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Notre Dame -9.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a ton of reasons to be motivated for a victory tonight over the St. Johns Red Storm. I like their chances of getting a double-digit blowout victory with everything they have working in their favor tonight.

First, this is Senior Night for the Fighting Irish. Jack Cooley should be motivated for his final home game on what figures to be an emotional night since sixth-year forward Scott Martin will also be honored. Martin has been shut down indefinitely since Jan. 21 due to his recurring knee problems.

Cooley was held scoreless for the first time in 57 games in a 72-64 loss at then-No. 22 Marquette on Saturday. He hadn't practiced the previous two days and was on an IV because of the flu. He played just 15 minutes against the Golden Eagles before being shut down as he simply wasn't himself. Healthy now, and motivated to bounce back from that defeat, I look for a huge game from Cooley in this one.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Fighting Irish have lost three straight to St. Johns heading into this one, including a 63-67 road loss to the Red Storm in their first meeting of the season on January 15th. All three of their losses during this skid have come on the road, but the Irish return home for revenge.

Notre Dame is 16-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.9 points/game. St. Johns is just 4-6 in true road games this season. The Red Storm figure to be an easier opponent Tuesday as losers of four of five. D'Angelo Harrison, averaging 17.8 points to rank among the conference's leaders, was suspended for the rest of the season Friday by coach Steve Lavin.

St. Johns is 0-7 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Red Storm are 1-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Irish. Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Irish winning each of their last three home meetings by 13 points or more. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Clemson -4

The Boston College Eagles are coming off a big come-from-behind 53-52 home victory over NCAA Tournament contender Virginia on Sunday. Off such a huge upset, I look for the Eagles to fail to show up tonight when they travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers for a second time this season.

Clemson has every reason to be motivated tonight. It wants revenge from a 68-75 loss at Boston College on February 2nd in their first meeting of the season. This is also Senior Night for the Tigers as they clearly want to send out their seniors with one final home victory.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Boston College and Clemson. In fact, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2003 with the Tigers being the only team to nab a road win in 2009. Clemson is 5-0 in its last 5 home meetings with Boston College dating back to 2003. All five victories have come by 8 points or more and by an average of 16 points/game.

The Tigers are 31-13 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Clemson is 58-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with the Toronto Raptors highly motivated for a victory. They want to get back on track following a tough 5-game road trip in which they lost their final four games. I like their chances of getting back on track in a big way against this struggling Raptors squad.

Toronto has lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS in the process in its last four games. All four losses came by 6 points or more. It was playing without Rudy Gay (back) in a 114-122 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday, and he is questionable to return tonight. I like the Warriors to roll regardless of whether or not Gay plays. If he's out it would only be an added bonus.

Golden State has been dominant at home this season. It is 18-7 SU & 15-10 ATS in all home games this year. That's not good new for the Raptors, who are just 8-21 in all road games this year. The Warriors won the first meeting 114-102 with the Raptors on January 28th on the road. I like for them to put a similar beat down on Toronto at home this time around.

Golden State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Raptors are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Golden State. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Golden State. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing arguably their best value of the season as a double-digit home underdog to the Miami Heat. They come in undervalued due to their current 5-game losing streak which has seen four of those losses come on the road. The other was a 99-100 home loss to Western Conference playoff contender, Golden State.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its 14-game winning streak. They won No. 14 in a row Sunday at New York as they erased a double-digit halftime deficit. That was a huge win for the Heat as they had lost the previous two meetings with the Knicks this season. Now, playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, the Heat are in for a big letdown tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Timberwolves are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Cincinnati/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +11

The Cincinnati Bearcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit road underdog to the Louisville Cardinals Monday night. I like Cincinnati to cover this spread for a number of reasons tonight with the biggest being their play on the road this year.

The Bearcats have played their best basketball away from home during the 2012-13 season. They are 8-4 in all road games this year with wins over the likes of Iowa State (78-70), Oregon (77-66), Xavier (60-45), and Pittsburgh (70-61). They also played Syracuse to a 2-point game (55-57) as an 8.5-point underdog.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot off their upset 58-53 road victory over the Orange on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be very though for Louisville to come back and give the kind of effort it will take to beat these feisty Bearcats by more than 11 points.

Louisville is known for its press which can give teams fits. However, Cincinnati has the perfect antidote with two of the best guards in the country. Leading scorers Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 PPG) and Cashmere Wright (12.6 PPG) will have no problem handling this press. Also, third-leading scorer JaQuon Parker (11.0 PPG) can handle the ball as well. Cincinnati is one of the few teams that is lucky enough to have its three best players being guards.

This play falls into a system that is 45-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less.

When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see why I'm taking the points tonight. Each of the last seven meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 9 points or less. Cincinnati has won four of those seven contests outright. That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the double-digit underdog Bearcats tonight.

The Bearcats are 10-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5

The Michigan Wolverines come into this game with the overrated Michigan State Spartans highly motivated for a victory. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead at Penn State on February 27th by a final of 78-84. That was the Nittany Lions' first conference win of the season.

It's clear the Michigan was looking ahead to this game against its biggest rival in the Spartans. It wants serious revenge from an ugly 52-75 loss at Michigan State in its first meeting of the season on February 12th. You won't see these Wolverines' players and this crowd more fired up than what they will be today throughout the rest of the season.

I really like Michigan's chances of bouncing back from that loss to Penn State and getting revenge in blowout fashion considering how well it has played at home this year. It is a perfect 16-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.4 points/game.

Michigan State is 3-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997. Michigan is 40-23 ATS in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Michigan. Take Michigan Sunday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Boston College +4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are in a huge letdown spot Sunday as they travel to face the Boston College Eagles. That's because the Cavaliers are coming off their biggest win of the season on Thursday with a 73-68 victory over Duke. That win almost certainly cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament, which is why they are ripe for a letdown here.

Boston College has quietly been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season with several close losses on the year. I have no doubt this team is better than its 12-16 record would indicate. It will be out for revenge after a 51-65 loss at Virgina in their first meeting on January 26th.

The Eagles have been solid at home this season. They have gone 10-6 at home with wins over the likes of Clemson, Wake Forest, Providence and Maryland. They also have close home losses to the likes of NC State (73-78) as a 7.5-point dog, Miami (59-60) as a 6-point dog and Duke (61-62) as an 11-point dog.

While Virginia has been one of the best home teams in the country, it has simply been atrocious on the road this year. The Cavaliers are 3-7 in all road games this season with some ugly losses to the likes of George Mason (59-63), Wake Forest (52-55), Clemson (44-59), Georgia Tech (60-66) and UNC (81-93).

This play falls into a system that is 161-89 (64.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.

Boston College is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Boston College is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. The Cavaliers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Roll with Boston College Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game with the Oklahoma City Thunder more motivated for a victory than they have been all season. They are out to prove that they can beat the defending Western Conference champs after a tough recent history against them. They have lost the first two meetings this season and DO NOT want to drop a 3rd today.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting its first win against OKC this season considering how well it has played inside the Staples Center. It is 23-6 SU & 18-11 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

The Thunder are very beatable on the road as they are 16-12 away from home this season. In fact, they have now lost three straight road games to Utah, Houston and Denver heading into this one. They have lost four of their last seven games overall with all three of their wins coming at home over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans.

Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponents this season. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These last three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the home team today. Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2

The Missouri State Bears will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home to face the Bradley Braves Saturday night. They are coming off an ugly 50-86 road loss at Illinois State last time out, and this will be their final regular season game tonight.

That means it will be Senior Day for the Bears. They certainly want to send out senior Anthony Downing a winner in his final home game ever. Downing is the team's best player as he leads them in points (13.7) and assists (2.7). He is the heart and soul of this team, and that's why I look for his teammates to go the extra mile to get him one final home win.

Missouri State also wants revenge from a 66-69 road loss at Bradley on January 19th as a 9-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting payback at home this time around considering the Braves are just 4-10 in all road games this year. They have some absolutely embarrassing road losses to UNI (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79). The Bears have won 12 of their last 15 home meetings with the Braves.

Bradley is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Bears. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/76ers UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. The Warriors are a tired team, and they have been showing signs of wearing down here of late.

This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for the Warriors. They lost 86-94 at Boston last night for 180 combined points. This is a jump shooting team, and the shots simply aren't going to fall considering how tired their legs will be tonight. I look for them to try and win this game because of their defense.

Golden State has an excellent chance of shutting down Philadelphia considering how poorly the 76ers have played offensively of late. The 76ers have scored 93 or fewer points in 12 straight games. However, they have only allowed 100-plus in two of those 12 contests. Philly is averaging a woeful 86.1 points/game in its last 12 games.

While those are all great reasons for a low-scoring game tonight, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings between these teams. Golden State and Philadelphia have combine for 188 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings over the past two seasons. They have combined for 185, 188 and 186 points, averaging just 186.3 points/game in the process. As you can see, that's roughly 10 points fewer than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Philadelphia is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -4

The Evansville Purple Aces should be a much bigger home favorite over the Indiana State Sycamores Saturday. This is Senior Day for Evansville as it will be their last home game of the season. It obviously wants to win this one for its seniors.

Evansville has saved its best basketball for the end of the season. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall with its only loss coming 68-71 as a 5-point home underdog to Creighton. It has reeled off three straight impressive victories since with a 79-62 home win over Illinois State as a 1-point dog, a 70-58 triumph at Wright State as a 1.5-point dog, and a 59-56 victory at Wichita State as an 11.5-point dog.

While the Purple Aces are rolling right now, the Sycamores have clearly packed it in. Indiana State has gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has lost four of its last five games overall with its only win coming 65-64 at home against Iona as a 5-point favorite. It has losses ugly losses to Missouri State (65-67), Bradley (68-80) and Drake (56-67) during this stretch. It doesn't even want to be here Saturday.

Evansville is 13-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points/game. Indiana State is just 4-8 in true road games this year. The Purple Aces want revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Indiana State on January 19th in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting it at home this time around.

Indiana State is 1-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Evansville is 6-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the homer team. Bet Evansville Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. This is a must-win game for them at home against Kentucky Saturday afternoon. The Razorbacks won't be lacking any motivation when they welcome the Wildcats to Bud Walton Arena today.

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back road losses to Florida and LSU heading into this contest. Those are two of the best teams in the SEC, and those road losses should come as no surprise considering how poorly it has played on the road. However, its home-court advantage has been huge this season.

The Razorbacks are a sensational 16-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Their home wins include Vanderbilt (56-33), Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71). The Wildcats are just 4-5 in true road games this year.

Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak. All three of those victories came at home over Vanderbilt (74-70), Missouri (OT) and Mississippi State. They were favored in all three contests as none of those wins were impressive. The Wildcats have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion to Florida (52-69) and Tennessee (58-88). They'll miss the presence of Nerlens Noel (out for season) on the road today.

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Butler/VCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Butler +7

Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points they are certainly worth a look. That's especially the case here Saturday as they are getting 7 points against Virginia Commonwealth. This is a Butler team that continues to be underrated year in and year out, and that has certainly been the case again this season.

That's evident by the fact that Butler is 22-6 on the season and a very profitable 16-10 ATS. That includes a 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS mark in road games this year. The Bulldogs have impressive outright wins over Marquette (72-71) as a 4-point dog, North Carolina (82-71) as an 8.5-point dog, Indiana (88-86) as an 11-point dog, St. Josephs (72-66) as a 2.5-point dog and Gonzaga (64-63) as a 2-point dog. They are 7-2 ATS as a dog this season.

VCU is one of the more overrated teams in the country. It also holds a 22-6 record like Butler, but it is just 8-13 ATS in all lined games this year. This is a quality Rams team but not one that should be favored by 7 points in what is a very evenly matched game. They have really been overvalued of late, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Butler is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. VCU is 0-6 ATS in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 0-8 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221

The books have inflated this number between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets tonight. This will be a nationally televised game on ESPN, which will bring out top-notch effort defensively from both teams. Plus, it will already be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors the defenses.

When you look at recent meetings between Oklahoma City and Denver it's easy to see that this number has been set too high tonight. That's especially the case when you don't count overtime, which is something you can never bank on when handicapping a game.

The Nuggets and Thunder have combined for 220 points or less in 18 straight meetings. That's only counting the first four quarters, and I'll take my chances that this contest doesn't go into OT tonight. This trend makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14.5

After losing two of their last three games in overtime, the San Antonio Spurs come into this game Friday with the Sacramento Kings highly motivated for a victory. That includes a 101-105 home loss to the Phoenix Suns last time out, and you can be sure that head coach Greg Popovich has made it clear to his players that it's was unacceptable.

Off a blowout road win at Orlando, the Kings are feeling good about themselves coming in. They'll quickly be put in their place by a Spurs team that will simply want this one more. I look for this spread to be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter tonight folks.

Sacramento is 6-26 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 10.1 points/game away from home this year. That's not good news for the Kings considering San Antonio is 22-3 at home this season. The Spurs are outscoring their opponents by an eye-opening 12.8 points/game at home this year.

The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Spurs are 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the Spurs Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Grizzlies simply have the Miami Heat's number in recent meetings. That's because this is a terrible match-up for Miami as it does not have the post presence to go up against a team like Memphis, which runs its offense through the underrated duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. I look for both of these guys to have monster games tonight for the Grizzlies.

Memphis has won its two most recent meetings with Miami in blowout fashion. It won 104-86 at home on November 11th in their first meeting this season, and 97-82 on the road on April 6th in their final meeting of 2012. In fact, the Grizzlies have now won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Heat come into this game way overvalued due to their current 12-game winning streak. They have shown signs of being overvalued in their past two games with a come-from-behind 109-105 home victory over Cleveland as a 12-point favorite, and a 141-129 (2 OT) home win over Sacramento as a 15-point favorite.

Memphis has shown that it really does not miss Rudy Gay one bit. It has won eight straight games heading into this contest and it will continue playing with a chip on its shoulder against the defending champs tonight. I look for this one to go right down to the wire, and for the Grizzlies to likely pull off the upset.

The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Memphis is 11-1 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1

The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. At 19-8, they are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament and they know that a win at home over Duke Thursday night would all but cement their place in the Big Dance. Look for this team to be more motivated for this game tonight than any other contest all season.

Virginia simply does not lose at home. It is 16-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points/game. Its home wins include Tennessee (46-38), North Carolina (61-52), Florida State (56-36), Boston College (65-51), NC State (58-55), Clemson (78-41), Virginia Tech (73-55) and Georgia Tech (82-54). As you can see, all but one of their ACC home wins have come via blowout.

Duke is only 4-3 in true road games this season with losses at NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90) and Maryland (81-83). This will be the first meeting between these teams this season, but the Cavaliers played the Blue Devils very tough on the road in their lone meeting last year. Virginia lost at Duke 58-61 as a 10.5-point underdog. It's revenge time at home this time around ladies and gents.

Virginia is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Thursday.

15* Missouri/South Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Carolina +9.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are showing excellent value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Missouri Tigers tonight. Despite being just 13-14 on the season, Frank Martin's club has shown that it is not going to pack it in.

South Carolina's last three games have resulted in a 58-68 loss at Alabama as a 12-point underdog, a 63-62 home upset of Ole Miss as a 6-point dog, and a 54-62 (OT) loss at Georgia as a 7-point dog. All three showing were very impressive and improved that the Gamecocks aren't going to pack it in.

The Gamecocks already showed that they could play with Missouri in their first meeting, falling 65-71 as a 13.5-point road underdog. I like their chances of possibly pulling off the upset at home this time around considering that Missouri is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only win coming at SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State.

The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games overall. The Tigers are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Missouri has no business being this heavily favored tonight with how poorly it has played on the road all season. Roll with South Carolina Thursday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -7

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory as they host the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma City and Cleveland, and I look for them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Consider that the Bulls have only lost three games in a row once all season.

I really like Chicago's chances of getting a blowout win tonight considering it will be hosting struggling Philadelphia. The 76ers have lost six straight coming in, including an embarrassing 84-98 home loss to Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite last time out. This team just cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus as they have completely fallen off.

Tom Thibodeau is one of the best head coaches in the business. He knows what buttons to push to get his players to respond following a poor performance or a string of them. Thibodeau is 44-24 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 29-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. He is also 22-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

Philadelphia is just 6-18 on the road this season. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. They are coming back to win by 10.8 points/game in this spot. The Bulls are 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico -5

The New Mexico Lobos will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season tonight. The No. 14 Lobos lost 34-55 at San Diego State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season. They have won six of seven since with their only loss coming at UNLV to improve to 23-4 on the year.

I really like New Mexico's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home this season. It is 13-1 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 11.9 points/game. "The Pit" is one of the most underrated basketball venues in the country.

San Diego State is just 1-4 in its last five true road games with losses to Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV. None of those four teams are as good as this New Mexico bunch. The Lobos are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Mountain West opponents.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These two trends combine for an 11-0 system backing the Lobos. Bet New Mexico Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. They have lost two straight coming in with a 94-107 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers, and a 107-110 (OT) home defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics. They will not lose three in a row tonight, especially considering this game is at home.

Utah is a sensational 21-7 SU & 17-11 ATS in all home games this season. It will also be out for revenge on the Hawks considering it has lost three straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. It lost the first meeting this season in Atlanta on January 11th by a final of 95-103.

The Hawks come in overvalued due to their 3-game winning streak coming in. In fact, they have won five of their last six overall while going 5-1 ATS in the process. A closer look at their schedule shows that they have been beating up on weaker teams. Their five wins have come against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Detroit. All five of those teams have losing records on the season.

The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in its previous game. The favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this series. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -8.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are finally undervalued as only an 8.5-point home favorite over the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. They had been overvalued for the past month after their tremendous start this season. Now is the time to jump back on their bandwagon as they are 20-7 on the season and fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.

Texas A&M (16-11) had its hopes of making the Big Dance crushed with an 85-93 home loss to Tennessee on Saturday. It now has little to play for the rest of the way, and off such a tough overtime defeat, I look for it to suffer a hangover tonight.

Ole Miss is 14-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.6 points/game. Rarely will you get the Rebels as a single-digit home favorite with how dominant they have been all season at home. Texas A&M is just 6-7 in all road games this year.

This is also a revenge spot for the Rebels after falling 67-69 at Texas A&M on February 13th just two weeks ago. That adds even more fuel to the fire for Ole Miss tonight. The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 188.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. I look for both teams to be held to fewer than 95 points in a low-scoring affair tonight. When you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between Dallas and Memphis. They have combined for 187 or fewer points in all five meetings with finals of 187, 174, 183, 180 and 181 points. They have combined to average 181.0 points/game in those five contests.

Memphis has become even more of a low-scoring, defensive team since trading away Rudy Gay and essentially getting back Tayshaun Prince in return. The UNDER is 3-0 in Grizzlies last three games overall with wins over Brooklyn (76-72), Orlando (88-82) and Toronto (88-82). As you can see, they have not combined with any of their last three opponents for more than 170 points.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Grizzlies last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Arkansas Razorbacks. LSU (16-9) still has an shot at making the NCAA Tournament thanks to playing its best basketball of the season here over the past few weeks.

LSU has gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came on the road at Kentucky (70-75) as a 15.5-point underdog, at Alabama (57-60) as an 8.5-point dog, and at Tennessee (72-82) as a 7-point dog. It has gone a perfect 5-0 at home during this stretch with wins over the likes of Texas A&M< Missouri and Alabama.

With those five straight home wins, LSU has improved to a solid 13-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. Arkansas is one of the worst road teams in the country. It is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming over SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State. It is getting outscored by 11.7 points/game in true road games this season.

The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between LSU and Arkansas since 2010. In fact, the home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Tigers. Roll with LSU Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -3

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six of their last eight games overall to get within striking distance of Milwaukee for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Four of those six wins came against playoff contenders in the Pacers, Nuggets and Knicks (twice), so it's not like they've been beating up on cupcakes.

Cleveland is in one of the toughest spots the NBA has to offer tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. Off a big upset win at Chicago last night, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cavaliers. Plus, they are expected to be without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) as he is listed as doubtful with a knee injury.

The road team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +13

The Penn State Nittany Lions are highly motivated for a win Wednesday when they host the Michigan Wolverines. They enter this contest winless (0-14) in Big Ten play, which has them way undervalued right now. That's why they are catching too many points tonight as they fight for that elusive first conference victory.

Head coach Patrick Chambers has done an amazing job of getting his players to continue to fight despite being winless in conference play. In fact, Penn State is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point dog, a 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog, and a 59-64 loss at Illinois as a 14.5-point dog.

Now, playing Michigan just 10 days after their first meeting, I look for Penn State to once again give the Wolverines a run for their money at home this time around. The Wolverines are in a big letdown spot here with Michigan State on deck. They will have a hard time getting motivated to play this Nittany Lions' bunch considering they just beat them by 8 at home 10 days ago.

Chambers is a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog in all games he has coached. His teams are actually winning in this spot 70.5 to 57.6 on average. John Beilein is 1-8 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game as the coach of Michigan. Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Tennessee +8.5

The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching nearly double-digits points at home tonight against the Florida Gators. Tennessee comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season. It has gotten to 16-10 on the year to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

The Volunteers are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. That includes three road wins at South Carolina (66-61), Vanderbilt (68-46) and Texas A&M (93-85), as well as blowout home victories over Kentucky (88-58) and LSU (82-72). Tennessee is 11-3 at home this season.

Florida has shown signs of coming back down to reality here of late. It has gone just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall, which includes road losses at Arkansas (69-80) and Missouri (60-63) despite being the favorite in both contests.

Tennessee has had Florida's number in recent meetings. It actually won both meetings last season with a 67-56 home victory as a 7.5-point underdog, and a 75-70 road win as a 12-point dog. The Gators are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 meetings, including 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Tennessee.

This play falls into a system that is 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLORIDA) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Tennessee is 9-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 32-16 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) since 1997. Roll with Tennessee Tuesday.

15* NBA Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls are the most resilient team in the league. Off an embarrassing 72-102 loss at Oklahoma City Sunday, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with a double-digit blowout victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home Tuesday night.

Cleveland comes in overvalued due to winning eight of its last 14 games overall. One of its losses came at Miami 105-109 last time out on Sunday, but it caught the Heat playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. And most of its eight wins have come against non-playoff teams.

Chicago simply owns Cleveland in this series. The Bulls have won 10 straight meetings in this series with each of their last nine wins coming by 9 points or more. This makes for a trends that is a perfect 9-0 since 2011 given tonight's spread of 6.5. Chicago's last four home meetings have resulted in wins by 26, 32, 13 and 9 points, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.

The Bulls are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Tom Thibodeau is 63-37 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 44-23 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

Note - I realize this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 in most places. I still recommend a bet on the Bulls at anything less than -10

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +15.5

The Sacramento Kings are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday night. I know the Kings have lost five straight coming in, but they've played a brutal schedule that has included Memphis, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta and New Orleans with four of those coming on the road. Sacramento is undervalued because of it.

Meanwhile, the Heat come in way overvalued due to their season-high 11-game winning streak. They started showing signs of being overvalued with a 109-105 come-from-behind home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

The biggest reason the Cavs were able to hang with the Heat was the fact that Miami came in very tired in that game. It was playing its 4th game in 5 days on Sunday, and now it will be playing its 5th game in 7 days against the Kings. That's one of the toughest situations for any team in the league, and I look for the Heat to come out sluggish once again because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 65-28 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Sacramento comes in well-rested as this will be just its 4th game in 13 days. The Kings are 32-16 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days since 1996. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Kings Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/76ers UNDER 189.5

The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, and this number has certainly been set too high given how poorly both squads have played on that end of the floor all year.

Orlando is scoring just 93.8 points/game overall and 92.3 points/game on the road. Philadelphia is scoring 92.2 points/game overall and 93.4 points/game at home. Both teams allow less than 100 points/game, so each has been solid on that end of the court for the most part. Especially Philadelphia, which is giving up just 95.2 points/game at home this year.

These teams just met on February 4th right before the All-Star game. The 76ers beat the Magic 78-61 at home for 139 combined points. That is 50 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5. While I do expect them to combine for more than 139 this time, I don't expect it to be anywhere near the posted total tonight.

Orlando is scoring just 88.0 points/game in its last five games overall. It is playing without Glen Davis and Jameer Nelson, which are two of its top scorers this season. Philadelphia has scored 93 or fewer points in 10 straight games, averaging just 86.7 points/game in the process.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Magic last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Golden State Warriors +8

The Indiana Pacers come into this game way overvalued tonight. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with four straight blowout victories over Charlotte, New York, and Detroit twice all by 18 points or more. They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to tonight.

Golden State comes in undervalued after having lost six of its last nine games overall. It has been able to get back on track by winning its last three, including a 107-101 (OT) victory over San Antonio. The perception is that this team still isn't playing well, but that isn't the case right now.

This play falls into a system that is 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.

The Warriors beat the Pacers 103-92 at home in their first meeting of the season on December 1st. Indiana is 2-12 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 14-6 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -4.5

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 24-3 on the season yet almost nobody in the media is talking about them. As a result, they remain undervalued. They should be a much heavier favorite over the Xavier Musketeers tonight.

Memphis has won 18 straight games coming in. I've seen this team play several times and I truly believe it can beat anyone in the country. This is the most athletic team in the land, and that athleticism will prove to be too much for Xavier tonight.

At 15-11 on the season, the Musketeers have little to play for the rest of the way. They are coming off a 71-75 home loss to VCU on Saturday, and it will be hard to recover from such a defeat. That's especially the case considering they are likely to be without starting PG Dee Davis, who scored 15 points against VCU. Davis is doubtful with concussion-like symptoms.

What's most impressive about the Tigers is the fact that they have been able to play their best basketball on the road this season. They are a perfect 7-0 in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by an eye-opening 12.4 points/game. Their road wins includes an 85-80 victory at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog, an 89-76 win at Southern Miss as a 1-point dog, and a 71-59 triumph at Marshall as a 9.5-point favorite.

The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Xavier is 2-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Take Memphis Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Jazz UNDER 191.5

I look for the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz to take part in a defensive battle tonight when they meet for the second and final time this season. Boston comes in fatigued following an 86-92 loss at Portland last night. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.

While Doc Rivers will command their attention to defense, I look for the Celtics to struggle on the offensive end due to their tired legs. This is a jump shooting team, which is not good for tired legs. Boston is scoring 95.9 points/game and allowing 95.9 points/game on the season.

Utah is a much better defensive team than it gets credit for. It is allowing just 95.7 points/game at home this season. A big reason this number has been inflated is the fact that the Jazz have played some recent high-scoring games against some of the top offenses in the league. They have played the Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder in their last four games overall.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the UNDER tonight. Boston won 98-93 at home on November 14th for 191 combined points in their first meeting this season. The Celtics also won at home 94-82 for 176 combined points in their final meeting of the '11-12 season.

Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 182.8 points/game in this spot. That's roughly 9.0 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5. Also, Boston is 25-11 to the UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State +1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Kansas Jayhawks. I'll gladly take advantage and back one of the most underrated teams in the country tonight to take down the ninth-ranked Jayhawks. This team simply does not lose at home.

Iowa State is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of a ridiculous 20.6 points/game. In fact, it has won 22 straight home games dating back to last season, including a 72-64 win over then-No. 5 Kansas on January 28th of last year. You'll see tonight how ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.

The Cyclones will clearly be out for revenge after falling 89-97 in overtime at Kansas in their first meeting of the season on January 9th. Iowa State was robbed of a victory as Kansas' Ben McLemore banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. The Cyclones wouldn't recover in the extra session, but they'll have their revenge at home this time around.

"We know we let one slip away," Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg said that night. "But at the same time, if you come in here and compete with a team that's won eight championships in a row, you can compete with anyone."

Kansas is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in home games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* Bulls/Thunder ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196

The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder will take part in a defensive battle tonight on ESPN. When good teams like this get together the defense usually wins out. Both teams are more than capable of shutting one another down defensively, which has been the case in this series in recent meetings.

The Bulls are allowing just 91.1 points/game this season as one of the best defensive teams in the league. Oklahoma City doesn't get enough credit for its defense because it has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook putting up a bunch of points each night offensively. The Thunder allow just 96.9 points/game at home this year.

Each of the last three meetings between the Bulls and Thunder have seen 189 or less combined points. Chicago won 99-90 at home in 2010 for 189 combined points, Oklahoma City won at home 92-78 at home in April of 2012 for 170 combined points, and the Thunder won on the road 97-91 in in November of 2012 for 188 combined points in their first meeting this season. These teams have averaged a combined 182.3 points/game in their last three meetings.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 8-0 in Thunder last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series. These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been all season. They enter this game on a season-high seven game losing streak and must stop the bleeding now if they want to make a run at the playoffs. I fully expect them to put an end to this skid tonight with a home victory over the Boston Celtics.

Portland just got Wesley Mathews, one of the most underrated players in the league, back from an ankle injury last time out. The Blazers nearly upset the Lakers as a 9.5-point road underdog on Friday, eventually falling 107-111 due to 40 points from Kobe Bryant. Matthews almost single-handedly kept the Blazers in the game late as he nailed several 3-pointers down the stretch. He finished with 15 points and 4-for-7 from 3-point range.

Portland is 17-9 at home this season and it still has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. Boston has been playing well of late, but it comes in overvalued because of it. The Celtics are just 9-17 SU & 9-15-2 ATS in all road games this season.

Boston is 25-43 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 5-15 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 25-11 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -10

Off a season-high four straight losses, the New York Knicks head into this contest with the Philadelphia 76ers more motivated for a victory than they've been all year. I look for them to roll the 76ers at home tonight and emphatically put an end to this 4-game skid.

Philadelphia is the perfect team for New York to face to get back on track. The 76ers have also lost four straight, including a 90-114 home defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat last night. Fatigued from the back-to-back situation, and likely to suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs, I don't even expect the 76ers to show up tonight.

The Knicks are 19-8 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 6-17 on the road. New York has won two of three meetings with Philly this season with its wins coming by 16 and 22 points. I expect a similar blowout in this one tonight. The Knicks are 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series, including 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings.

The 76ers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest, including 2-10 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season. The Knicks are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games. Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Knicks Sunday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Virginia -9.5

I fully expect the Virginia Cavaliers to roll by double-digits at home today over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in ACC action. The Cavaliers (18-8) are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament and they need to finish strong if they want to be playing in the Big Dance.

Off two straight road losses to North Carolina (81-93) and Miami (50-54), Virginia will be highly motivated for a victory when it returns home today to face lowly Georgia Tech (14-11). The Cavaliers are a sensational 15-1 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points/game.

Virginia actually lost at Georgia Tech 60-66 in their first meeting of the season. The revenge factor only adds more fuel to the Cavaliers' fire today. They'll be up against a Yellow Jackets squad that is just 2-5 in true road games this season. Georgia Tech is just 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Bet Virginia Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State -4.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament at 20-7 on the season. While they have a ton to play for at this point of the season, the Washington Huskies (14-13) do not. They will simply be playing out their season, which has appeared to be the case for several weeks now.

Washington is just 2-8 in its last 10 games overall with those two victories both coming at home. It has lost five straight road games during this skid, including a 52-70 setback at Arizona on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Arizona State has won two straight coming in with a 63-62 victory at Colorado as an 8-point underdog, and a 69-57 home win over Washington State as a 6.5-point favorite.

The Sun Devils will also be out for revenge heading into this one. That's because they lost at Washington 92-96 in their first meeting of the season on February 2nd roughly three weeks ago. There's no question that ASU is the team that wants this one more Saturday when these two square off.

Arizona State is 15-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.4 points/game. Washington is only 4-6 in true road games. The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Arizona State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall. The Sun Devils are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Arizona State Saturday.

25* CBB Bracketbuster GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa -4

The Northern Iowa Panthers take on the Denver Pioneers in a bracketbuster game Saturday in non-conference action. I am laying the wood on the Panthers as only a 4-point home favorite today as they continue playing their best basketball of the season.

Northern Iowa has won six straight games coming in, which includes home victories over Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54), which are considered the two best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also went on the road and beat Bradley, Drake and Missouri State during this run.

Denver is a quality team at 17-8, but the fact of the matter is that it plays in the very weak conference in the in the WAC. This is a Pioneers' team that plays much better at home than they do on the road. They are just 7-6 in true road games this season. They'll be up against a Panthers team that is 12-2 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points/game there.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Pioneers are 13-44-1 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Pistons UNDER 188

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons. This is a home-and-home situation as these teams squared off last night in Indiana as the Pacers rolled to a 114-82 victory. Now, they'll play in Detroit just 24 hours later.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. I have no doubt that after combining for 196 points last night that these teams will buckle down defensively and take away their opposition's offensive strengths. That 196-point effort was an aberration when you look at previous meetings in this series.

Indiana beat Detroit 88-77 on the road for 165 combined points on December 15th in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The Pacers also won 98-79 at home for 177 combined points on January 30th. Throw in that 196-point effort, and these teams are averaging just 179.3 points/game combined. That's roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total.

Detroit is 13-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The UNDER is 13-3 in Pacers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Pistons last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 20-7 in Pistons last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Florida ESPNU No-Brainer on Florida -18.5

The Florida Gators (21-4) will be more motivated for a win Saturday than they have been at any other point this season. They just blew a double-digit second-half lead at Missouri last time out on Tuesday to fall 60-63. They'll be pissed off from that loss, and they'll also be out for revenge from a 69-80 loss at Arkansas as a 10.5-point favorite in their first meeting of the season on February 5th.

Florida returns home where it is 12-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 27.4 points/game. Arkansas has been excellent at home as well where it has lost just one game all season. However, the Razorbacks are just 1-6 in true road games this season.

Arkansas' road losses include blowout defeats at the hands of Michigan (67-80), Texas A&M (51-69), South Carolina (54-75) and Vanderbilt (49-67). If the Razorbacks could lose on the road by 18 to both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and by 21 to South Carolina, you can just imagine what a motivated Florida team is going to do to them Saturday.

Another big reason to back the Gators tonight is the fact that they'll be the more prepared, more rested team heading in. That's because they last played on Tuesday against Missouri, while Arkansas squeaked out an ugly 62-60 home victory over Georgia on Thursday. The edge certainly goes to Florida in rest and preparation because of it.

The Razorbacks are 19-46 ATS in their last 65 road games. Arkansas is 15-41 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas Jayhawks -23.5

The Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs. Not only are the Jayhawks fighting for the Big 12 title with Kansas State and Oklahoma State, they also want revenge on the Horned Frogs for their most embarrassing loss of the season.

TCU actually beat Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. Kansas scored just 13 points in the first half in what head coach Bill Self called the worst performance in program history. You can bet that these players will want to run up the scoreboard on TCU to make a statement in this one.

The Horned Frogs have fallen flat on their faces since that huge upset. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with home losses to West Virginia (50-63) and Texas (59-68), and road losses to Oklahoma (48-75) and Iowa State (53-87). If Oklahoma won by 27 and Iowa State won by 34, you can just imagine what Kansas is going to do to TCU in the rematch Saturday.

TCU is 0-6 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. TCU is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -1.5

The Texas A&M Aggies should be a much bigger home favorite over the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday. Texas A&M still has an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament, and it will be laying it all on the line to get a win in this one because of it.

The Aggies have been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month while going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road. It has impressive home wins over both Missouri and Ole Miss during this span.

Texas A&M is 11-4 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season. Tennessee is just 2-6 in true road games this season which is why I believe it is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Plus, the Vols come in overvalued due to their four-game winning streak that includes unimpressive wins over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky (minus Noel) and LSU.

This play falls into a system that is 87-49 (64%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against an underdog (TENNESSEE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more.

Tennessee is 6-21 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1997. Texas A&M is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +19.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are way overvalued as nearly a 20-point home favorite over the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday. Sure, the Cyclones are one of the best home teams in the country, but asking them to win by 20-plus is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for Iowa State. It is coming off its first significant road win of the season with an 87-82 triumph at Baylor. With Kansas on deck Monday, there's no question that the Cyclones will be overlooking these Red Raiders and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks.

Texas Tech already beat Iowa State once this season with a 56-51 home victory as a 10.5-point underdog on January 23rd. It has played some other good teams tough this season, including a 64-66 loss at West Virginia as a 14-point underdog in its last road game on February 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 83-41 (66.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against a home team (IOWA ST) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after a combined score of 165 points or more.

The Red Raiders are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on LSU -2.5

The LSU Tigers are out for revenge on the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday. They lost the first meeting of the season 57-60 at Alabama on February 9th just two weeks ago as an 8.5-point underdog. I like the Tigers' chances of returning the favor at home in the rematch.

LSU is a very solid 12-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.9 points/game. It is scoring 73.3 points/game at home this year. Alabama is just 4-5 in true road games this season where it is scoring a mere 57.7 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Alabama and LSU. The home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings dating back to 2008. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. In fact, LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Meanwhile, Alabama is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Putting the icing on the cake is the fact that the Tigers are 8-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Roll with LSU Saturday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons should not be catching 7.5 points at home today to the Miami Hurricanes. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home squad in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.

At 22-3 and as the No. 2 team in the country, the Hurricanes come into this contest way overvalued. They are also a perfect 13-0 in ACC play which has the betting public continuing to back them. Miami has started to show signs of coming back down to reality as each of its last three victories have come by 6 points or less over FSU (74-68), Clemson (45-43) and Virginia (54-50).

Wake Forest is just 11-15 on the season, but this is certainly a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has played very well at home this year where it is 9-4 SU & 7-3 ATS on the season. It has home wins over the likes of Xavier (66-59), Virginia (55-52), NC State (86-84) and Florida State (71-46). It also has a narrow home loss to Duke (70-75) as a 13.5-point underdog.

One of the biggest reasons I am on Wake Forest Saturday is the fact that it has had a week to prepare for Miami since last playing on February 16th in a 56-57 loss to Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Miami as it played Clemson on 17th and Virginia on the 19th. The Demon Deacons will have a huge edge in rest and preparation.

The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Wake Forest is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a ATS loss. The Demon Deacons are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued as a 9.5-point favorite Friday over the Portland Trail Blazers. Asking them to win by double-digits is simply asking too much. I'll gladly take the value and back Portland in a game I feel it has an excellent chance to win outright.

The Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season. That's because they have lost a season-high six straight games coming in while going 0-6 ATS in the process. This skid has them undervalued heading into this one.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are overvalued due to their 113-99 home victory over Boston on Wednesday in their first game back from the break. They were catching Boston in the second of a back-to-back situation as the Celtics were very tired after having played the Denver Nuggets the night before.

This play falls into a system that is 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, second half of the season.

Portland is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Portland. Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* T'Wolves/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -13

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not lost four straight regular-season games since the first season that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook joined forces. The Thunder will try to avoid such a skid Friday night when they host a Minnesota Timberwolves team they have beaten in 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Oklahoma City (39-15) is enduring its longest slide of the season after falling 122-119 at Houston on Wednesday. The Thunder allowed former teammate James Harden to score 46 points and yielded 47.8 percent shooting. "As a team, we gave up too many points, 66 points in the second half is not us, it's not what we pride ourselves on," coach Scott Brooks said. "We have to regroup and figure it out defensively."

I look for the Thunder to come out highly motivated tonight to beat a Minnesota team that they have owned. Oklahoma City beat Minnesota 106-84 in their most recent meeting on January 9th as a 12.5-point favorite. I look for a similar beat down tonight with the Thunder being able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.

The Timberwolves are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Minnesota is 1-10 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots - 2nd half of the season since 1996. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Oklahoma City. Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -1

The Dallas Mavericks are making a push toward the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They trail the Houston Rockets by 4.5 games for that spot and cannot afford to take nights off from here on out. They have been in this position for a while now, which is why they have been the best team to back over the past month or so.

That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are a ridiculous 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This team remains undervalued because of its poor record (24-29) on the season. However, this team is the definition of one that is better than its record would indicate as they have lost more close games than any other team in the league.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have lost each of their last two meetings with New Orleans, including a 99-96 (OT) loss at home in their lone meeting this season. New Orleans has not played well since returning from the break, losing 87-96 at home to Chicago, and 100-105 at Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 65-24 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (DALLAS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

This play falls into another system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Dallas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. These two trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on New York Knicks Money Line -111

The New York Knicks come in highly motivated for a victory Friday night. The Knicks are enduring their second three-game slide and their lead atop the Atlantic Division has been cut to one game over Brooklyn. They have not lost four straight all season, and they aren't about to tonight.

The third straight loss was an embarrassing 125-91 setback at Indiana on Wednesday. We didn't show up," head coach Mike Woodson said. "They whipped our asses from beginning to end." Off such a bad defeat, there's no question these players will respond tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Toronto handed New York the loss that started this three-game skid. The Raptors went into Madison Square Garden and came away with a 92-88 victory on February 13th. Just 10 days later, I look for New York to return the favor by going into Toronto and getting a victory tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 52-22 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).

The Raptors had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 82-88 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday. With their momentum coming to a halt, I don't look for them to even show up tonight. The Raptors are 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -1.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Saint Louis Billikens. The 15th-ranked Bulldogs can clear a big hurdle by assuming sole possession of first place with a win over surging conference leader Saint Louis on Friday night.

Butler (22-5, 9-3) has endured injuries to its three leading scorers in its first A-10 season but trails the Billikens (20-5, 9-2) by only one-half game. Now healthy, and out for revenge from an ugly 58-75 loss at Saint Louis on January 31st in their first meeting of the season, I look for the Bulldogs to roll at home tonight.

The Bulldogs are a sensational 13-1 at Hinkle Fieldhouse this season, which includes wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Temple. They also beat No. 1 Indiana on a neutral court earlier this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 13.5 points/game at home this year.

Butler is 37-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. Butler is 10-3 ATS 10-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Jim Crews is 4-16 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% in all games he has coached since 1997. Take Butler Friday.

Note - I released this play Thursday night anticipating the line would move so my long-term clients could get in early. It has done just that and it up to -3 in most places. I still recommend a wager on Butler -3 and to buy it to that number if it moves any higher.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this match-up between two of the top three teams in the Western Conference in the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers. This is a high-profile game that will bring out the best in both teams defensively. That has certainly been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent meetings.

The Clippers and Spurs have combined for 201 or fewer points in six straight meetings dating back to their playoff series last year. The two meetings this season alone have been very low-scoring. Los Angeles beat San Antonio at home 106-84 on November 7th for 190 combined points. The Clippers also beat the Spurs on the road 92-87 on November 19th for 169 combined points. These teams have combined to average just 179.5 points/game in two meetings this season, and 189.2 points/game in their last six meetings.

Both Chris Paul and Tony Parker tend to struggle when they play one another, which is huge for the UNDER. Parker had a season-low four points on 2-of-7 shooting in a 106-84 loss at Staples Center on Nov. 7, and scored 11 in a 92-87 home defeat Nov. 19. Parker also shot just 36.1 percent while averaging 17.3 points in the four-game sweep of the Clippers in the second round of last season's playoffs. Paul scored 12.8 per game on 36.8 percent shooting in that series.

The UNDER is 11-2-2 in Spurs last 15 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 12-4 in Clippers last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 41-20 in Clippers last 61 Thursday games. The UNDER is 19-4-1 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +16

The Penn State Nittany Lions are way undervalued heading into this game with the Illinois Fighting Illini. That's because they are winless in Big Ten play despite coming so close so many times. There's no question this team is going to continue to fight to try and earn that first conference victory, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get it tonight as a 16-point road underdog at inconsistent Illinois.

Penn State has shown that it is not going to throw in the towel. It has gone 2-0 ATS in its last two games with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point underdog, and an impressive 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog. There's no way this team should be catching this big of a number against the Fighting Illini tonight.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to its current four-game winning streak which includes victories over Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern. With Michigan on deck, this is a big letdown spot for the Illini as they'll simply be overlooking the Nittany Lions. Remember, this is the same Illini team that has ugly losses to Purdue (61-68), Minnesota (67-84), Wisconsin (51-74), Northwestern (54-68) and Michigan (60-74) on its resume. I have no doubt the Nittany Lions can hang tonight.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, it tends to let down and not play well following a blowout home win. I look for that to be the case against tonight. Roll with Penn State Thursday.

15* Georgia/Arkansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas -10

The Arkansas Razorbacks (16-9) are making a nice push here of late to stake their claim in an NCAA Tournament bid. They have won four of their last five, including home wins over Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71) to really boost their resume. They realize they need to finish out the season strong to make the Big Dance so they have every reason to be motivated tonight.

Off back-to-back losses to Alabama (45-52) at home and Ole Miss (74-84) on the road, the Georgia Bulldogs have little to play for. They had won five straight prior, but now all of their momentum is gone. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect because of it and to simply just play out their season and look forward to the SEC Tournament. They aren't "in the now" mentally like the Razorbacks are.

Arkansas has been one of the best home teams in the country all season. It is 15-1 at home this year while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points/game. Georgia is just 3-7 in all road games this season, scoring a mere 59.0 points/game. It won't be able to keep up with a Razorbacks team that is scoring 83.7 points/game at home this year.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8

The Golden State Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to their 6-game losing streak coming in. I like their chances of putting an end to the skid in blowout fashion considering they'll be hosting the lowly Phoenix Suns tonight.

Five of Golden State's six losses during this streak have come on the road and against some very good competition. It lost to Houston twice, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Dallas and Utah. Now, the Warriors return home where they are 16-7 on the season.

Phoenix is coming off a rare road victory at Portland last night, which sets it up for a big letdown spot here against a Warriors' team that is simply going to want this one more. The Suns are just 6-23 in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 8.8 points/game.

Golden State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Phoenix. That includes a 113-93 home victory as a 10.5-point favorite on February 2nd in its lone home meeting with the Suns this season. I look for a similar blowout tonight. The Warriors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Phoenix overall.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* Kansas/Oky State ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas +1

The Kansas Jayhawks are going to be highly motivated for revenge tonight. They lost their only home game of the season to these same Oklahoma State Cowboys by a final of 80-85 on February 2nd. I look for these Kansas players to want this game more than any other game they have played this season because of it.

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has simply been getting all of the breaks in close games of late. Four of its last six wins have come by 5 points or less. It won't be so fortunate tonight.

Bill Self is 16-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite as the coach of Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Kansas Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as this will be the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. Each has had about a week off and both will have extra time to prepare for one another, which favors the defense.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have missed their mark tonight. Not counting overtime, each of the last 19 meetings between the Hawks and Heat have seen 197 or less combined points. This makes for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 195

This is a classic home-and-home situation as the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks just played last night. Brooklyn won at home 113-111 (OT) in an absolute thriller. Now, they'll head to Milwaukee for the rematch just 24 hours later. These situations favor the defenses, and as a result I look for a low-scoring affair tonight. This will also be the 4th meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity also favors lower scoring games.

Brooklyn is 15-9 to the UNDER in all road games this season. It is scoring just 92.5 points/game and allowing 94.5 points/game on the road this year, combining with its opponents for an average of 187.0 points/game. That number right there shows that there is some value with this UNDER tonight.

The Nets are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Brooklyn is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 9-1 to the UNDER after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These last six trends combine for a dynamite 46-4 (92%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs will roll tonight over the Bradley Braves in Missouri Valley Conference action. Drake wants revenge from a 57-67 loss at Bradley on January 29th in their first meeting of the season. I look for them to get it tonight considering how poorly the Braves have played on the road this year.

Bradley is 3-7 in true road games this season. In fact, it is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games in MVC play, losing by double-digits each time. Its road losses over this span include Indiana State (53-68), Northern Iowa (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79).

Drake comes in hungry for a win following four straight losses to tough competition in Illinois State, Evansville, Wichita State and Northern Iowa. It's not like the Bulldogs are playing that bad either as three of the four losses came by single digits. Drake is 7-5 at home this season which includes impressive wins over Evansville (83-69), Creighton (74-69) and Indiana State (74-71).

Drake is 9-1 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in these spots by an average of 9.0 points/game. The Braves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Bet Drake Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers should be a much heavier home favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. The home team has won both meetings this season with New York proving victorious 88-76 on November 18th, and Indiana winning 81-76 on January 10th. I look for this trend to continue tonight considering how dominant Indiana has been at home this season.

The Pacers are easily one of the best home teams in the league. They are an outstanding 21-5 at home this season and 16-10 ATS in the process. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points/game at home this year while limiting them to 88.2 points/game and 40.7 percent shooting.

The Knicks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with losses to Washington, LAC and Toronto. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Pacers Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight. Both teams are struggling of late, but I like Ohio State's chances of snapping out of it better since it is playing at home tonight.

Both teams have lost three of their last four. However, Minnesota's losses have come to Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State, while Ohio State's losses have come against Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan with two of those on the road. That's why I'm much less worried about the Buckeyes' recent struggles rather than the Gophers. Minnesota really hasn't been playing well for quite some time now as it has lost seven of its last 10 games overall. This team is consistently overvalued.

Ohio State has really dominated this series in recent meetings. It has gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota. Four of those wins came by double-digits.

The Buckeyes are 13-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points/game. The Gophers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Gophers. Take Ohio State Wednesday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -5.5

Few teams needed the All-Star break as much as the Portland Trail Blazers. They lost each of their final five games going into the break, all of which came on the road. A nice long break, and a return home, is just what the doctor ordered to get this team back on track as they host the Phoenix Suns Tuesday night.

Portland is an outstanding 17-8 at home this season. It will be taking on a Phoenix team that has really struggled on the road. The Suns are just 5-23 away from home this season, getting outscored by a whopping 9.3 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between these teams. The home team has won six straight and eight of the last nine meetings. The Blazers have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Suns.

This play falls into a system that is 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.

Portland is 13-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. Phoenix is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a ATS win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Golden State Warriors +3.5

The All-Star break came at a perfect time for the Golden State Warriors. This team had one of the best records in the Western Conference before losing its final five games before the break to 'drop' to 30-22 on the season. As a result, this team is undervalued as the second half of the season kicks off Tuesday.

Golden State should not be catching points against a Utah team that comes in overvalued after beating Oklahoma City and Minnesota in its final two games before the break. The Warriors will simply want this one more to erase the sour taste from five straight defeats heading in. Also, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

Golden State is 24-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Warriors are 18-2 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. And finally, Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls (30-22) had a very solid first half of the season to put themselves in great position in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. However, after a rough finish heading into the All-Star break, this team is going to be highly motivated to get back on the court and make amends starting with tonight's game against the New Orleans Hornets.

Chicago lost two straight and four of its last five heading into the break. All four of those losses came against playoff contenders in Indiana, Denver, San Antonio and Boston with three of them coming on the road. That finish certainly leaves a bad taste in these players' mouths, and they'll come out more hungry for a win tonight than in any other game all season.

New Orleans come in overvalued after winning four of its final five games heading into the break. Three of those wins came against current non-playoff teams in Phoenix, Detroit and Portland, and the loss came against Toronto. So, while Chicago played a very tough schedule heading into the break, the Hornets' slate could not have been much easier.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they lost to the Hornets 82-89 at home in their first meeting of the season way back on November 3rd. That was clearly a rare loss for Chicago in this series considering it had won its previous eight meetings with New Orleans. It will certainly want revenge from that defeat, and I fully expect it to get it in blowout fashion tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHICAGO) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Tom Thibodeau is 21-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Chicago is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a S.U. loss. The Hornets are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* Indiana/Michigan State ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1.5

The Spartans have been absolutely rolling since their 70-75 loss to Indiana on January 27th. They have gone 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 against the spread while beating the likes of Minnesota and Michigan along the way. That includes a dominant 75-52 victory over the Wolverines despite being a 1.5-point underdog in that contest. There

20* WVU/K-State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on West Virginia +11

The West Virginia Mountaineers are 6-7 in Big 12 play with an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize they need a road win like this against Kansas State to boost their chances of playing in the Big Dance.

West Virginia has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks. It has won four of its last five games overall, which includes two double-digit road victories at Texas Tech and TCU. The Mountaineers also have a road win at Texas and a 2-point road loss at Iowa State on their resume this season.

I have no doubt that the Mountaineers want revenge badly after falling 64-65 at home to Kansas State on January 12th in their first meeting of the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will have a hard time getting motivated after already beating WVU once. There is a good chance K-State comes out flat after beating Baylor by 20 on Saturday as well.

This play falls into a system that is 133-55 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Bet West Virginia Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -1

The Iowa Hawkeyes are showing their best value of the season Sunday as only a 1-point home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is an Iowa team that is on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. As a result, it won't be lacking any motivation tonight to get a win.

Also motivating these Hawkeyes is the fact that they lost a heartbreaker at Minnesota 59-62 on February 3rd just three weeks ago in their first meeting of the season. They'll want payback from that defeat and I like their chances of getting it at home.

Iowa has clearly played its best basketball of the season at home this year. It is 12-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in all home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points/game. Its only losses have come to Michigan State and Indiana by a combined 7 points, which are two of the top teams in the country. The Hawkeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.

Minnesota is not playing well at all right now and it has no business being favored because of it. The Golden Gophers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games overall with all three wins coming at home. They have lost each of their last four road games.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Minnesota is 1-12 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. win. These four trends combined for a 34-3 (92%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +10

The Michigan State Spartans are in a big letdown spot today against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are coming off a huge win over in-state rival Michigan at home on Tuesday. It's only human nature for them to not get emotional ready to face a team with a losing record like Nebraska.

Making it even more difficult for the Spartans to get motivated is the fact that they have already beaten the Cornhuskers once this season. Michigan State beat Nebraska 66-56 at home on January 13th as a 17-point favorite. I like the Huskers' chances of staying within double-digits this time around.

Nebraska is 9-6 at home this season with wins over the likes of USC, Northwestern and Penn State. It has also played teams like Wisconsin (41-47) and Ohio State (56-63) close at home. Michigan State is just 5-3 in true road games this season.

The Huskers are 9-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season. Michigan State is 2-8 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State +5

The Missouri State Bears remain one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. This team has made me more money than any other team in the country in this season. I will continue to back them Saturday as I believe they are undervalued as a road underdog to lowly Southern Illinois.

The biggest reason Missouri State is undervalued right now is its 8-18 record. The average bettor looks at that record and wants nothing to do with the Bears. Missouri State has quietly gone a sensational 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall as a result.

While the Bears are 6-8 SU in Missouri Valley play and in the middle of the pack of the conference, the Southern Illinois Salukis are just 3-11 in the MVC and a bottom feeder. The Salukies have no business being favored in this contest.

Missouri State won the first meeting between these teams this season 70-59 despite being a 5-point home underdog. That win should come as no surprise considering this has been a one-sided series in recent years. Missouri State is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last 7 meetings with Southern Illinois dating back to 2010.

The Bears are 7-0 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Missouri State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Salukis are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Southern Illinois is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Take Missouri State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oregon -3

The Oregon Ducks should be a much bigger favorite Saturday over the lowly Washington Cougars. Oregon is a team that would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today, but it realizes it cannot afford a slip up if it wants to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

While the Ducks (20-5) have everything to play for, the Cougars (11-14) have almost nothing to play for at this point in the season. Washington State has lost five straight games coming in to drop to 2-10 in Pac-12 play this season. It has no chance of beating one of the top teams in the conference Saturday.

This play falls into a system that is 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams as an underdog or pick (WASHINGTON ST) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 3 points or less.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Washington State, winning all four games by 7 points or more. The Ducks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Arkansas +1

The Arkansas Razorbacks should not be an underdog at home Saturday to the Missouri Tigers. We all saw what this team was capable of at home when it beat then-No. 2 Florida 80-69 on February 5th less than two weeks ago.

Arkansas is a stellar 14-1 at home this season where it is scoring 84.4 points/game and allowing 65.7 points/game. It is outscoring its opponents by a whopping 18.7 points/game at home this year. This team clearly feeds off of its home crowd.

Missouri hasn't traveled very well at all this year. It is a woeful 1-5 in true road games this season with its only win coming against lowly Mississippi State, which is the bottom feeder of the SEC.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Missouri is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +9

The Oklahoma Sooners are showing some of their best value of the season as a 9-point road underdog to the rival Oklahoma State Cowboys Saturday. This is a game that the Sooners really need if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma a bubble team right now, while the Cowboys would be in the Big Dance if the season were to end today. That's why I do not believe the motivational factor will be on Oklahoma State's side despite the fact that Oklahoma won the first meeting of the season between these teams.

The Sooners won the first meeting convincingly at home by a final of 77-68 as only a 2-point favorite. Oklahoma State should be no more than a 2-4 point home favorite in the rematch in my opinion. The Cowboys are simply overvalued right now due to their six-game winning streak coming in, which includes three wins by a combined 9 points.

Oklahoma is 18-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Cincinnati ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Georgetown +4

The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That has been evident by their 11-7 record against the spread in all lined games this year. They are finally starting to get some recognition with a Top 25 ranking.

Georgetown comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 against the spread in its last six games overall. That includes road wins of then-No. 24 Note Dame (63-47) and Rutgers (69-63), as well as home wins over then-No. 5 Louisville (53-51) and then-No. 18 Marquette (63-55).

A big reason for the Hoyas

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Colorado +2.5

The Colorado Buffaloes (16-7) need this win over Arizona (20-3) to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. They'll be highly motivated for that reason tonight, and also to get revenge on these Wildcats, who stole one from them in the first meeting of the season.

Colorado still insists it was wronged in last month's loss to Arizona, and the time for revenge is here. These teams opened conference play in Tucson on Jan. 3, and Colorado led by 16 with 12:40 left in regulation of a 92-83 overtime loss.

Arizona used a 10-2 run over the final 1:35 of the second half to draw even, but the game will be remembered for Sabatino Chen's 3-pointer that banked in as regulation expired and seemingly gave the Buffaloes the victory.

The officials reviewed the play and determined that the ball was still on Chen's fingertips when the lights around the backboard went on. Colorado disagreed at the time, and nothing has changed its opinion.

The Buffaloes suffered a hangover from that defeat, dropping four of their first five games in Pac-12 play. However, they have responded by playing their best basketball of the season over the past few weeks, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Arizona lost at home to California 69-77 on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. It has been overvalued over the past few months due to its fast start, and that has been evident considering that the Wildcats are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This team is not as good as its record, and it should not be favored tonight.

Colorado has taken care of business on its home court this season. It is 9-1 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.3 points/game. Its only loss came by a mere 3 points to UCLA (75-78) on January 12th. The Buffaloes have double-digit home victories over both Stanford (75-54) and California (81-71) in Pac-12 play.

The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Colorado is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Roll with Colorado Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on UMass +12.5

The UMass Minutemen should not be catching double-digit points to Virginia Commonwealth tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back UMass showing arguably their best value of the season. This is a game they are looking at as a great chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume.

The Minutemen come in playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point on the road to Charlotte.

UMass has beaten quality opponents in Richmond, La Salle and St. Josephs during this stretch. Dating back further, it is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games overall with all three losses coming by 8 points or less.

VCU has been overvalued over the past month and that is the case again tonight. It is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall winning just twice by double-digits during this span. Those wins came against lowly Duquesne and Fordham.

This team is not nearly as good as it is getting credit for. It lost at Richmond (74-86) and at home against La Salle (61-69) towards the end of January, which are two teams that UMass has beaten.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and there's no question that the Minutmen are the better squad when we do that. UMass is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS against opponents that VCU has also faced, outscoring them by an average of 9.7 points/game. VCU is 5-2 SU & 1-6 ATS against those same opponents, only outscoring them by 6.0 points/game.

The Rams are 7-20 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UMass is 32-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.

The Minutemen are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. UMass is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. VCU is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Minutemen. Take UMass Thursday.

20* Heat/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4

The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly want revenge on the Heat. They have lost five straight meetings in this series since taking a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals last June. Four of those five losses came on the road. They clearly won

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Georgia Tech -2.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are showing solid value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Clemson Tigers. I believe Georgia Tech is the better team, and that will certainly show at home tonight.

The Yellow Jackets are playing their best basketball of the season of late. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wake Forest (82-62), Virginia (66-60), and a road victory at Virginia Tech (64-54).

Georgia Tech's two losses in their last five games came by a combined five points. One of those losses was at Clemson (60-63) on January 29th just two weeks ago, which clearly puts the Yellow Jackets in revenge mode.

Georgia Tech is 10-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.2 points/game. Clemson has lost three straight games coming in, and it is 0-5 on the road in conference play this season with all five losses coming by 3 points or more.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC foes. Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 ACC contests. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* Oregon/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -2

The Washington Huskies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Oregon Ducks. I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory Wednesday because of it.

Washington has lost two straight and six of its last seven coming in with five of those losses coming by single-digits. That includes a 76-81 loss at Oregon on January 26th, which has the Huskies motivated for revenge.

Oregon is ripe for the picking right now as it has lost three of its last four with its only victory coming at home over lowly Utah 73-64 as a 13-point favorite. It lost at Stanford 52-76, at Cal 54-58 and home vs. Colorado 47-48.

A big reason for Oregon's recent struggles is the fact that it has been without one of its best players in Dominic Artis (10.2 PPG, 3.8 APG). He has missed the last five games with a foot injury and is expected to miss Wednesday's contest as well.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Washington and Oregon over the last few years. The home team has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2011, winning each time by 4 points or more.

The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Washington is 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. These last five trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +5.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the lowly New Orleans Hornets tonight. After falling to 25-27 on the season with four straight road losses coming in, the Blazers will certainly be motivated for a victory tonight.

Portland cannot afford to lose any more ground on the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. This is its chance to go into the All-Star break on a high note, and I look for it to be giving 110% effort to try and get this victory tonight.

New Orleans (18-34) has no business being favored here. It is getting too much respect for its win at Detroit last time out. It is just 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in all home games this season.

Portland simply owns New Orleans in this head-to-head series. It has won five straight meetings with the Hornets dating back to last season. The Blazers have averaged 102.5 points in their last five games and should be able to find open looks against New Orleans, which has allowed 101.9 points per game over its last 13.

This play falls into a system that is 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off a road win by 10 points or more.

New Orleans is 2-16 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Portland Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -1

The Vanderbilt Commodores are showing solid value as only a 1-point home favorite over the Tennessee Volunteers Wednesday night. This is an in-state rivalry that is always played closer to the vest.

That's why I have no doubt Vanderbilt is going to be laying it all on the line to get a win in this one. The Commodores lost a heartbreaker to the Vols in their first meeting this season, dropping a 57-58 decision at Tennessee on January 29th as an 8.5-point dog.

Tennessee is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It is just 1-6 in true road games this season. Home-court advantage has certainly been huge in this series recently. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.9 points/game. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Denver Nuggets are in as tough of a spot tonight as you will find in the NBA. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after losing in Toronto last night.

The Nuggets are clearly fatigued, and making matters worse for them is their injury problems. Both Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari sat out last night, and each is questionable to return tonight. Also, Javale McGee is doubtful, while Wilson Chandler is questionable. These are four key contributors for Denver.

Deron Williams is expected to miss tonight's game for Brooklyn, but it proved it could win without him on Monday as it went into Indiana and came away with an 89-84 victory. Williams has been hobbled all season and he really hasn't been himself anyway.

The Nuggets are just 11-17 on the road this season. The Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take the Nets Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers will have no problem getting motivated to face the lowly Charlotte Bobcats tonight. This will be the final game for Indiana before the All-Star break, and it certainly wants to end on a positive note after what has transpired in the last few games.

Indiana has lost its last two games in heartbreaking fashion to both Toronto and Brooklyn. Both losses came in overtime after the Pacers seemingly had the game won in the final seconds of regulation. Motivated to bounce back from those two defeats, I have no doubt the Pacers will roll tonight.

Indiana is 20-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.7 points/game. Charlotte is just 5-20 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 11.7 points/game.

The Pacers beat the Bobcats in their previous meeting 103-76 on the road on January 15th. In fact, this has been a very one-sided series over the past few years. Indiana has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series with five of its last six victories coming by 14 points or more.

The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Charlotte is 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Nebraska +24

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are simply catching way too many points against the Indiana Hoosiers tonight. I believe Nebraska is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and it will be a profit maker from here on out.

While Nebraska is just 3-8 SU in Big Ten play, it is a very profitable 7-4 ATS in those 11 contests. It has not been prone to the blowout, either. It has not lost any of its last 10 Big Ten games by more than 19 points. It is 3-1 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes blowout victories over Northwestern (64-49) and Penn State (67-53).

Indiana remains the No. 1 team in the country, which means it has a big target on its back. Off a huge 81-68 win at Ohio State on Sunday, the Hoosiers are certainly in a letdown spot tonight as they return home to face Nebraska. They won't be motivated enough to win this game by 24-plus point.

This play falls into a system that is 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 20 or more points (INDIANA) - red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=50% of their shots.

This play falls into another system that is 74-35 (67.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 20 or more points (INDIANA) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Indiana is 0-6 ATS after a game being called for 10+ less fouls than opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 8-19 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more since 1997. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Take Nebraska Wednesday.