Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.

Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back.  But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).

Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today.  They are Jackson State and Oregon.  Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road.  Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997.  The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Arkansas State Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5

I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.

Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.

Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.

But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.

Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.

Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.

The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.

The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +1

Carolina's 10-0 start will come to a screeching halt on Thursday.  The Dallas Cowboys are the real deal with Tony Romo at quarterback, going 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him.  But they were at least competitive during their 7-game losing streak as five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less.  That's because their defense is one of the better stop units in the league, and all this team was missing was a quarterback.

The Cowboys racked up 386 total yards in their 24-14 win at Miami last week.  They even overcame a couple of questionable interceptions from Romo as he shook off the rust, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns.  Darren McFadden also chipped in 129 rushing yards behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  This is now as complete a team as there is in the NFL with Romo back under center.

But the credit in the Miami win has to go to the Cowboys' defense.  They limited the Dolphins to just 210 total yards as they simply could not get anything going.  The defense is only giving up 335.5 yards per game against opponents that average 376 yards per game, holding them to 40 yards below their season averages.  Expect the Cowboys to really control the time of possession now with Romo back, which is only going to make those defensive numbers even better going forward.

Admittedly, I've underestimated the Panthers this season.  I pictured this as about a .500 team coming into the year.  But now that the Panthers are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread, there's no question they are overvalued as the betting public has taken notice.  This line indicates the Panthers would be favored on a neutral field, and that's not right in my eyes.  The Cowboys are by far the superior team now that Romo is back and should be favored on a neutral field, and thus at least a 4-point favorite at home.  I believe there's some serious line value here with the Cowboys as a result.

Despite being 3-7, the Cowboys still have a legitimate shot to win the NFC East.  They are only two games behind the New York Giants and one game back of the Philadelphia Eagles.  They cannot afford a loss here, while the Panthers can afford a loss now that they have a two-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals for home-field advantage in the NFC.  They also have a four-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South.

Cam Newton deserves a lot of credit for what he's been able to do with limited weapons on offense, but the fact of the matter is that this is still a below-average offensive team.  The Panthers only average 5.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They rank a mediocre 15th in the NFL in total offense at 354.2 yards per game as well.  This offense will meet its match against Dallas' top-notch defense that has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games.

The Panthers have also benefited from a home-heavy schedule this season.  They have only played four road games, and three of those came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.  Their only impressive road win came at Seattle by a final of 27-23.  But the Seahawks let that game slip away by blowing a double-digit lead in the second half.  The Panthers won't be so fortunate this week against a hungry Cowboys team on the road.

Romo is the only quarterback all-time with multiple wins against teams that are 9-0 or better.  He beat the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts in the fourth start of his career in 2006.  He also beat the 13-0 Saints in Week 15 of the 2009 season.  The Cowboys are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games after having lost three of their last four games coming in.  Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last five meetings with Carolina dating back to 2005.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day.  It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests.  I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.

It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22.  Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.

Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days.  After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night.  Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury.  Bledson is questionable to return tonight.  I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.

Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes.  Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points.  New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5

You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight.  They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.

The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State.  I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.

Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season.  The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters.  They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago.  It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.

Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week.  Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward.  They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.

Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents.  The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.

The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4

Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury.  I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.

Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks.  The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential.  That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana.  Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.

Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played.  The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.

The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games.   The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5

The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here.  They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season.  They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season.  They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games.  They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.

The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.

The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks.  The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result.  They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come.  The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.

The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.  They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season.  They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).

Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76).  That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.  Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.

The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense.  The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.

Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go.  They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday.  They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.

It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury.  Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State.  He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.

The Bulls are 8-4 this season.  The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season.  The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers.  They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two.  They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.

Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5

I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites.  I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point.  It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  The same thing is happening this season.

Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan.  The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.

Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate.  This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result.  Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.

The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season.  They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season.  They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.

Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs.  That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for.  I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.

The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.

Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.  Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5

I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play.  They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February.  The good news this year? All five starters return.

Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.

Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81).  I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament.  They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort.  They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.

Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season.  They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA.  But that wasn't all they lost.  They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.

That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.

Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents.  Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5

The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs.  We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.

East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season.  It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season.  But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California.  The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.

San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far.  The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.    The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with East Carolina Monday.

20* Bills/Patriots ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Buffalo +7.5

The New England Patriots are clearly overvalued right now due to their 9-0 start as they remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL. That was evidenced last week as they were fortunate to escape with a 27-26 road win over the New York Giants as 7-point road favorites. The Giants really aren’t very good, and they should have won that game. They outgained the Patriots by 16 yards and racked up 422 yards of total offense in the loss.

One thing that’s getting overlooked here is that the Patriots aren’t going to be as explosive offensively going forward without two of their top three weapons. Dion Lewis is out for the season with a knee injury suffered a few weeks back, and Julian Edelman broke his foot against the Giants last week and now will be out indefinitely.

Lewis had accounted for 622 total yards and was averaging 10.8 yards per reception. Edelman’s 61 receptions leads the team to go along with 692 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Brady is left with a pedestrian group of weapons now on offense. He is great at doing more with less, but the fact of the matter is that Edelman and Lewis made this offense dynamic, but now this is just an above-average bunch.

Tyrod Taylor makes all the difference for the Bills. He returned two weeks ago and led the Bills to a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins. He also had a nice game in a 22-17 road win at the Jets last week. The Bills are 5-2 in games in which Taylor has started, and 0-2 in games he did not start in losses to the Jaguars and Bengals. Taylor is completing 70.5 percent of his passes with an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 243 yards and two scores to give this offense an added dimension with his legs.

Buffalo is 3-0 in true road games this season as well.  It won 41-14 at Miami, 22-17 at New York and 14-13 at Tennessee.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.0 points per game on the road this year.  This team just has a knack for playing its best football away from home.  Keep in mind that Taylor started in all three of those road wins.

The Bills had one of their best performances of the season in a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins two weeks ago. They were coming off their bye week and really played a complete game. Now, they are essentially getting a mini-bye week here. They played last Thursday against the Jets, giving them three extra days of rest than the Patriots heading into this one. Rex Ryan getting extra time to prepare for the Patriots is a dangerous propositions. He played them tough almost every time when he was with the Jets, so he certainly knows how to game plan for Belichick and company.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East opponents. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four November games. The road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Bills Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9

Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued.  That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks.  But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.

The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +1

I know the Packers are reeling right now, but I simply trust them more in a big game like this. I also believe it’s impossible that Aaron Rodgers loses a fourth straight game as a starting quarterback. Heck, he hadn’t lost two in a row since his first year in the league in 2008, let alone three. He will rally the troops this week and get the Packers to finally put their best foot forward now that first place is on the line in the division.

Minnesota was one of the most underrated teams in the first half of the season, but after a 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS start, this team is now overrated in my opinion. The Vikings are extremely fortunate to be 7-2 right now because they have won so many close games, and when you look at the numbers, there’s no way this team should be five games over .500.

Would you believe that Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season? Well, that’s the simple truth. Its offense is only averaging 328.7 yards per game, while its defense is giving up 336.6 per contest, so the Vikings are getting outgained by 7.9 yards per game. Those are the types of numbers you would expect from a team that is 4-5 right now instead of 7-2.

There’s no question that the Vikings have a strong running game and defense, but there’s also no denying that the Packers have a massive edge at the quarterback position. Rodgers is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions, so he's not broken. The Vikings have been winning in spite of Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown for 1,810 yards with only a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio. I’ll back Rodgers in this matchup all day every day.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Packers are 9-1-1 straight up in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was hurt and didn’t play in the game that they tied, and the lone loss came back in 2012 in a 34-37 defeat at Minnesota in which Rodges threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns. The Vikings are improved this year, but I don’t believe they’re ready to win this division quite yet.

Rodgers has owned the Vikings, too.  In 14 career games against Minnesota, Rodgers is completing 71 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and four interceptions.  It's certainly one of his favorites teams in the league to face, and he pretty much just owns the entire NFC North.  Green Bay is 39-18 ATS in its last 57 games vs. NFC North opponents.   That's not going to change this week.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I believe Green Bay is finally undervalued here as an underdog after losing four straight games against the spread. This is the first time that the Packers have been underdogs all season, and we'll take advantage and grab the points.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Cowboys -1

Despite their seven straight losses for a 2-7 start, the Dallas Cowboys still have a realistic shot of winning the NFC East. That’s because the leader in the division is the New York Giants at 5-5, who 2.5 games ahead of the Cowboys. With seven games to go, you can bet the Cowboys are going to be in must-win mode from here on out to make a run in this weak division.

They certainly like their chances now that Tony Romo is back. They went 2-0 with him in their first two games, and 0-7 without him in their last seven. I’ve been saying it all along that Romo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league, and this start just proves it. All the Cowboys were missing was a quarterback. They’d probably be somewhere around 7-2 if he had played in all nine games, but instead they are 2-7.

The Cowboys have played tough even without Romo and it’s almost impossible that they are 0-7 with how well they’ve played. They have lost two overtime games to the Saints and Eagles, they lost by 4 to Tampa Bay, by 1 to Seattle and by 7 to New York. So, five of their losses have come by a TD or less. Their defense has played well enough to win most of these games, but they just haven’t gotten anything out of their offense. That’s going to change now that Romo is back.

The Miami Dolphins just aren’t very good this season. They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.0 yards per game. They have been thoroughly outplayed in their last three games and should have lost all three. They lost 7-36 at New England and 17-33 at Buffalo, and their 20-19 win over the Eagles last week was a fluke.

They were outgained 289-436 by the Eagles, or by 147 total yards. Sam Bradford got hurt late in that game and the Eagles couldn’t recover. The Dolphins got a blocked punt and a freak tipped pass for a TD that had them coming back from a 16-3 deficit to win.  So I’d have to say that the Dan Campbell factor has certainly worn off. Plus, they lost their top pass rusher in Cameron Wake to a season-ending injury against the Patriots, and their defense has not recovered. They are giving up 29.3 points and 431.0 yards per game in their last three contests.

Plays on road teams off seven or more consecutive losses in November games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss with a losing record on the season are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games off a win by 3 points or less. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games overall.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons are extremely motivated for a victory right now.  They had their bye last week, and they've had a sour taste in their mouth for two weeks now do to the stench of this 3-game losing streak.  Make no mistake about it, the Falcons will be laying it all on the line to get a victory Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite the three consecutive losses, the numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  They actually rank 3rd in yardage differential behind only the Cardinals and Patriots, outgaining teams by an average of 59.9 yards per game.  They rank 5th in total offense at 402.2 yards per game, and their defense is improved this season, ranking 14th at 342.3 yards per game.

The Colts are fortunate to be 4-5 this season because when you look at the numbers, they have been pretty awful.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.5 yards per game.  They average a pedestrian 353.7 yards per game on offense, and they are terrible on defense, ranking 28th in allowing 394.2 yards per game.

Matt Hasselbeck will be starting in place of the injured Andrew Luck.  Yes, Hasselbeck is 2-0 as a starter this season, but a closer look shows that the Colts were playing two terrible opponents and were fortunate to win.  They needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 16-13 at home and were outgained by 105 yards in that game, 326-431.  They also squeaked out a 27-20 road win over the Texans, and were again outgained by 121 yards, 323-444.

They shouldn't have won either of those games when you look at the yardage totals.  Now, against one of the best teams they've played this season in the Falcons, Hasselbeck is going to be exposed.  This is where you are going to see how much the Colts miss Luck, because Hasselbeck can't keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense.  He could keep up with the Jaguars and Texans, but not the Falcons.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a road loss are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7

I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now.  Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another.  They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team.  Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers.  There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.

This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years.  The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one.  I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.

The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game.  But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process.  Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward.  Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.

Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites.  That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites.  I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years.  Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well.  It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.

The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115).  I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.

Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee.  It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.

The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.

Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.

Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.

Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.

Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.

As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.

This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.

Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5

New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here.  It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road.  The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.  That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.

Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky.  The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise   racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers.  The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained.  The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.

New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season.  While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth.  It will be the more motivated team here as a result.  The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.

I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home.  Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now.  Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards.  It was closer than that final score suggests.

Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The last two haven't even been close.  Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense.  The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.

Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29

The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly.  They haven't lived up to those expectations.  After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.

Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter.  I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road.  They only beat the Orange 37-27.  I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.

This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest.  It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina.  All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less.  That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.

That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me.  Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game.  The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge.  That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run.  They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter.  If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.

"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five  games following a S.U. loss.  Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason.  They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16.  Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.

The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58).  The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most.  Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.

Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship.  But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning.  They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell.  The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home.  Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.

Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4

There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game.  The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern.  They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday.  The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued.  In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win.  They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers.  They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week.  They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.

This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State.  They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest.  I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.

After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season.  Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game.  Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game.  Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game.  The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.

Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now.  They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.

It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame.  I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.

That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9.  Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana.  Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away.  It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.

Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week.  I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games.  He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.

Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks.  It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury.  He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.

Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does.  Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week.  But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.

Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota.  It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about.  He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways.  They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all.  That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.

Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.

Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game.  Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.

Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way.  The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.

I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them.  Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.

This is Purdue's Super Bowl.  An upset win here would make their season.  I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in.  They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers.  It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.  Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game.  The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams.  That's the case again here.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!

15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons.  The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons.  Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster.  It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.

''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''

The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina.  ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''

North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year.  It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games.  It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.

Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week.  But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence.  The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers.  They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers.  This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.

UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down.  The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards.  They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards.  Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.

UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.  Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC.  Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech.  These are two 100% never lost systems folks.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2

When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.

Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.

With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.

Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.

Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.

That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.

Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5

The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games.  They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.

The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently.  They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites.  But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.

The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25

This is simply a situational play against Kentucky.  The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves.  They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.

Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over.  It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game.  Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.

Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road.  Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.

Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Wright State Friday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

No Chris Paul and no J.J. Redick is going to spell trouble for the Clippers' offense tonight.  Both Paul and Redick are listed as doubtful, leaving the Clippers without their two starting guards.  In their places will be Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford, which is a huge downgrade on the offensive end.

The Clippers are going to have to rely on defense until those two return, which is what they did in a 101-96 win over Detroit on November 14.  They have had four days off in between games to prepare for the Warriors, so look for them to be sharp on the defensive end behind DeAndre Jordan and company.

This has become a fierce rivalry now that these teams both exchanged words in the offseason.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings, but all four of those were with Chris Paul in the lineup.  The Warriors are very good on offense, but what gets overlooked is that they are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too.

They are only allowing opponents to make 42.3% of their shots this season and life is going to be difficult for the Clippers without Paul and Redick in this one.  It's also worth mentioning that Steph Curry's running mate, Klay Thompson, is questionable to play in this game due to a back injury that has limited him all season.

Golden State is 29-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Clippers last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Clippers last 53 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville -3

The Jaguars are really improving as the season goes on under head coach Gus Bradley. They have gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three games overall. They beat a good Bills team 34-31 over in London and also upset the Ravens 22-20 on the road as 5-point underdogs.

Even the game they lost they should have won as they fell 23-28 as 7.5-point road dogs to the Jets. They actually outgained the Jets by 146 total yards in the game, racking up 436 total yards against a good New York defense, while also only allowing 290 total yards. But they finished that game -4 in turnover differential, which proved to be the difference.

I really like the state of mind of the Jaguars right now. They are only one game back of both Indianapolis and Houston for first place in the AFC South, so they have a lot to play for. I don’t really like the mindset of the 2-7 Titans, who had their head coach fired midseason. They responded with a road win at New Orleans in Mike Mularkey’s first game as interim head coach, but then proceeded to go back to their usual bad ways in a 10-27 home loss to the Panthers last week.

That win over the Saints was really an aberration, but the Saints also lost badly to the Redskins last week, so that team isn’t playing well right now. The Titans are still 1-5 in their last six games overall. They have been outgained by at least 59 yards in four of their last five games, including 122 yards by the Falcons and 135 yards by the Dolphins in a 10-38 loss.

Marcus Mariota is being asked to do too much because the Titans just do not have a running game. They have been held to 97 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games, so this is really a one-dimensional offense.  Now, another starting WR in Justin Hunter went down with a broken foot last week.  Kendall Wright is also out after missing the last three games with an MCL injury.  Wright and Hunter are the team's #2 and #3 leading receivers this season behind tight end Delanie Walker, so Mariota's options are clearly limited right now.

Blake Bortles has a lot more help around him than Mariota does. Bortles has a nice stable of young receivers, plus T.J. Yeldon is having a fine rookie season running the football. He has rushed for 532 yards this year while averaging 4.0 per carry.  Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown in seven consecutive games, which is a franchise record.  Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL as well.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. The home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings, and the home team won both meetings last season. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years. The Titans are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Tennessee is 4-20-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC foes.  Bet the Jaguars Thursday.

15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5

The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.

East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago.  They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.

Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.

UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.

ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.

The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Take UCF Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14

Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes.  The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech.  The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd return four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots.  That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.

After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern.  That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami.  Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern.  But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.

Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results.  This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.

Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Mississippi State Thursday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount.  They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19).  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).

Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61

First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium.  The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game.  They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.

Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there.  Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury.  He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.

What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series.  These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory.  They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points.  Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.

Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season.  But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.

Minnesota is in an awful spot here.  It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.

The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued.  They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games.  Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5).  You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.

The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz.  Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points.  The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12

It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season.  The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett.  Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.

IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents.  It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs.  Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games.  Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.

NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.

Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow.  Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed.  That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.

NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites.  If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does.  They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.

IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years.  IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Bet IUPUI Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5

Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season.  But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.

T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back.  Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes.  Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.

I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs.  After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona.  That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.

Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play.  It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16.  It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg).  Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  To say they are starting over would be an understatement.

Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount.  Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season.  Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over.  They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific.  Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.

Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton.  Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Pacific Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago.  Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer.  I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.

New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season.  It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game.  What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS.  They should not be underdogs here.

Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.   The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.

New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA.  The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year.  Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7

This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.

Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.

Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them.  But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.

The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.

Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.

Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.

Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons.  They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year.  They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year.  Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately.  Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School.  James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.

Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis.  The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC.  They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.

But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia.  Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).

Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season.  Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).

Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team.  Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5

The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season.  Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet.  The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15.  Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.

All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play.  Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.

I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points.  McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans.  But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.

This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth.  It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result.  The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game.  Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36.  UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.

Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with USC Monday.

20* Texans/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +10.5

Because the Bengals are 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread this season, the betting public is quick to continue backing them.  Oddsmakers know this, and thus they have to shade the line in the Bengals' favor to try and get even action on both side.  This has created some excellent line value to swoop in and back the double-digit underdog Texans.

That's especially the case with the great spot the Texans are in.  They are coming off a season-saving 20-6 win over the Titans last week in which their defense came through with their best performance of the season, limiting Tennessee to just 211 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  At 3-5, most teams wouldn't be able to come back and make the playoffs, but that's not the case for the Texans.

Houston only trails Indianapolis 0.5 games in the AFC East and can pull into a first-place tie with a win.  That's why I love the motivation of this Texans team right now, and they had to have a much more enjoyable bye week after their 14-point win over the Titans.  They have had two weeks to get rested, healthy, and prepared to face the Bengals.  That's a huge advantage coming into this game.  The Bengals are so far out in front of the Steelers in the AFC North that they can afford to take their foot off the gas, too.

Cincinnati backers were rewarded laying double-digits last week in a 31-10 win over the Johnny Manziel-led Browns.  But that was a 7-point game into the fourth quarter.  And the Browns are a mess right now.  So after winning last week by laying the big points, the betting public won't be scared to do so again this week.  The problem for the public is that the Texans are a much more formidable opponent than Manziel and the Browns.

Statistically, the Texans are a much better team than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 18.5 yards per game.  The Bengals are 7th in yardage differential to compare.  The Texans have an underrated offense that ranks 9th in the NFL at 369.4 yards per game.  They also have a respectable defense that is 14th and one that I believe will only get better as the season goes on.

Houston is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  It will be out for revenge from a 22-13 home loss to the Bengals late in the season last year that ultimately cost the Texans a playoff spot.  Had they won that game, they would have been in the postseason.  Things like that are not forgotten, and the Texans are really looking at this as a must-win game here.

Plays on underdogs with a poor rushing offense (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8-plus games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road teams who are slow starters that are outscored by 5 or more points per game at halftime, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows how teams who continue covering spreads are overvalued in the second half of the season.  The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 90 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game.  Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread.  It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.

But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him.  They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played.  The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.

Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings.  Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.

Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener.  They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away.  Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.

This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16.  They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg).  Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season.  He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.

Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV.  It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be.  The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.

Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3

Remember last year when the Seahawks were 3-3 to start the season an everyone was panicking. They went on to finish 12-4 and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Well, they opened an even worse 2-4 this year and everyone was panicking again. But they’ve reeled off two straight victories since with a 20-3 win at San Francisco and a 13-12 win at Dallas. They are now 4-4 and only two games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West. If they want to win the division this year, they cannot afford to lose this game.

The Seahawks outgained the 49ers by 246 yards and the Cowboys by 103 yards in their last two games, so they clearly have gotten it together. Their defense has gotten back to being the most dominant in the league. They held the 49ers to just 142 total yards and the Cowboys to 220. Now I look for them to shut down this overrated Arizona offense this week to help aid the victory.

Seattle has held a lead in the 4th quarter in every game this season and could easily be 8-0. But it lost to four very good teams including three on the road. The Seahawks’ four losses have come to Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay and St. Louis, who are a combined 26-6 this season. So they have fell victim to a tough early schedule. But again, they held a 4th quarter lead in every game they lost despite the difficulty of the schedule.

Arizona is way overvalued due to its 6-2 start this season. Its six wins have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland. Those six teams are a combined 15-36 this season, and none of the six currently owns even a .500 record, let alone a winning record. Even the losses were suspect as they fell 22-24 at home to the Rams and 13-25 on the road to the Steelers, who were playing without Ben Roethlisberger. This team has simply taken advantage of a very easy schedule to this point.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 28.8 points per game. They have outscored the Cardinals by a combined 108 points in those five meetings even when you factor in their 17-10 home loss. One thing that really stands out to me is that Seattle has been favored by 9.5, 8, and 10.5 in its last three home meetings with Arizona. Now it is only a 3-point favorite, which just shows how much Arizona is being overvalued right now.

While Russell Wilson has figured out Arizona’s defense to the tune of 31.2 points per game in the last five meetings, this Seattle defense has shut down Arizona. The Cardinals have only averaged 9.6 points per game in their last five meetings with Seattle. The Cardinals are running the football better this year, but they are still a pass-first team. That bodes well for the Seahawks, who rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 186.4 yards per game.

The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 28-3 in all home games over the past four seasons as the 12th man is the real deal. Seattle is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  This may be the last time you get Seattle at a discount, so take advantage this week.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5

The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win.  Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.

Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1.  It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out.  But they've had a day to recoup before this game.

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year.  They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday.  They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.

Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta.  The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close.  In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +6

This is a great spot for the Chiefs. They have turned their season around in their last two games with back-to-back double-digit wins over the Steelers and Lions. They beat the Steelers 23-13 at home before crushing the Lions 45-10 in London. Now they have had two weeks off to continue to improve as a team under Andy Reid.

It is a proven fact that Reid is one of the best head coaches all-time at coming up with a game plan when given two weeks to prepare. Indeed, Reid was 13-1 straight up in Philadelphia off a bye, and he's now 14-2 after going 1-1 with the Chiefs thus far. He is known for giving his players a full week off, while under the CBA terms, players only get a mandatory four days off on a bye week. Rex Ryan was previously 1-5 off a bye, but changed it up and took a page from Reid’s book last week. He gave the Bills a full week off, and they responded with a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins.

The Chiefs have plenty of motivation heading into this one. They have lost seven straight to the Broncos, and the last time they lost eight in row in this series was all the way back from 1976 to 1979. They gave away the game in their first meeting in a 24-31 home loss as the Broncos scored 14 points in the final 36 seconds. The Chiefs uncharacteristically committed five turnovers in that game to hand Denver the win. In their other seven games this season, they have only committed a combined three turnovers just to prove how fluky that game was.

The reason the Chiefs have a chance to pull the upset in this game is because their defense is finally playing up to their potential. The Chiefs have held their last four opponents to 18 points or less, and an average of 14.3 points per game. This defense is loaded at every level and is especially good at getting after opposing quarterbacks. That will be key against the struggling Peyton Manning, who has thrown nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions this year. He has thrown at least one interception in all eight games this season.

Injuries and suspensions to several key players for the Broncos will hamper them this week.  Manning is banged up with a foot injury, though he's expected to play.  Emmanuel Sanders has an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Friday, and he's questionable.  On defense, LB Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury.  That will allow the Chiefs O-Line to focus on Von Miller.  The Broncos will also be without their top cornerback in Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for this one.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-59 (63.4%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 25 games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +11

The Green Bay Packers weren't as good as everyone thought they were during their 6-0 start to the season.  They never once covered the spread by more than a touchdown in those first six games, and they have finally been exposed the past two weeks against better-quality teams.  Green Bay was outgained by 360 yards in a 10-29 loss at Denver and by 25 yards in a 29-37 loss at Carolina, which was nowhere near as close as the final score showed as the Packers got some late yardage and points in the 4th quarter to make it interesting.

In fact, the Packers have now been outgained in four straight games and in five of eight games this season.  They actually rank a woeful 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 41.2 yards per game on the season.  Aaron Rodgers is perceived to be the best QB in the league, and while he may be, this offense just isn't getting it done.  The Packers actually rank just 25th in total offense this year at 340.9 yards per game.

Statistically, these teams are almost equals as the Lions are getting outgained by 48.0 yards per game this year, which is only 6.8 yards more than the Packers.  But this 11-point spread would indicate that the Packers are by far the superior team, but that's simply not the case.  Rodgers clearly misses Jordy Nelson because his receivers aren't getting much separation outside of Randall Cobb.  Everything is just coming much tougher for this offense than it did in year's past.

It's not just the offense, though.  The defense has surrendered an average of 275 passing yards per game in its last three contests.  Green Bay also allowed the Broncos and Panthers to rush for a combined 290 yards.  The Packers are dealing with a bevy of injuries on defense, too.  Cornerbacks Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Damarious Randall are all questionable to play this week, and all three play significant roles.

The Lions have had their bye week to regroup and get ready for the Packers, and they would love nothing more than to add to Green Bay's misery by pulling off the upset here.  They also want to put an end to a 24-game losing streak at Lambeau Field, which has been well documented.

Matthew Stafford has actually played pretty well at Lambeau, too, throwing 10 touchdowns against three interceptions in four career starts there.  The Lions have been close in recent meetings at Lambeau, though.  Their last five visits were decided by 10, 13, 7, 4 and 2 points.  So, four of the five resulted in losses by 10 points or less, which would be good enough to cover this 11-point spread.

The Lions are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games following a loss by 21 points or more, and 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games off a loss by 14 or more.  Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Detroit could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now due to recent results.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

Since their 26-0 loss to Detroit in Week 3 with Jimmy Clausen at QB, the Chicago Bears have been in every game they've played.  Each of their last five games have been decided by 3 points or less, and they've beaten Oakland at home while also going on the road and knocking off Kansas City and Oakland.  Their only losses came at Detroit (34-37) in overtime at home against Minnesota (20-23) after they allowed 10 points in the final two minutes.

Jay Cutler has been back and healthy every since that loss to the Seahawks.  He is really playing well now, especially since Alshon Jeffery returned healthy.  Jeffery has finished with at least 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games.  He has only been able to play in four games all season, but he has still managed to catch 33 balls for 492 yards and two touchdowns in those four games.  He is questionable with groin injury this week, but all signs point to him playing after he practiced on a limited basis Friday.

The St. Louis Rams have no business laying this kind of weight against a solid Chicago team.  The Rams are 4-4 on the season and still feature and awful offense that is only averaging 19.1 points and 312.6 yards per game this season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by 11.1 yards per game this season.

The Bears, in spite of their 3-5 record, are actually outgaining teams by 5.2 yards per game.  That's impressive with both Cutler and Jeffery missing significant time, and now Matt Forte out.  John Fox has clearly had a huge influence on this team, and that's really been evident on defense.  He has turned this Chicago defense into a Top 10 (9th) unit in allowing just 341.9 yards per game this season.

Only two of the Rams' four wins this season came by more than 3 points, and those were against the 49ers and Browns, who are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Bears are certainly in a different class than those two teams statistically.  But the Bears just don't get a lot of love from the betting public, which is why we find them catching way too many points here. That's proven by the fact that they've gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite being an underdog in all five contests.

John Fox is 25-9 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached.  Fox is 10-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog in all games he has coached, so he knows how to carry the momentum over with his teams.  Jeff Fisher is 16-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +5

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are coming off their bye week, but at 2-6 they have nothing to play for at this point.  The Cincinnati Bengals are 8-0 within their division while the Steelers are 5-3.  They aren't going to come back and challenge either team within the division, and they are pretty much out of the wildcard race unless they were to go 8-0.  With the lack of talent they have, they know it's not going to happen.

The Ravens now have arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL after losing star WR Steve Smith to a season-ending Achilles injury.  He suffered the injury in a 29-26 home win over the lowly Chargers last week.  The other win the Ravens got came back on October 1 by a final of 23-20 against a Steelers team that was without Ben Roethlisberger and starting Michael Vick for the first time on a short week on a Thursday.

So, both of Baltimore's wins have come by just 3 points.  In fact, all eight Ravens games this year were decided by 8 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  That's a big reason why I believe we are getting such great value here with the Jaguars +5.  I also like the fact that the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Jacksonville went to London and beat Buffalo 34-31 as 3-point underdogs.  It came back following its bye week and nearly upset the Jets as 7.5-point road dogs in a 23-28 loss.  The Jaguars thoroughly outplayed the Jets in that game and should have won.  They outgained them 436-290 for the game, or by 146 total yards, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the game.  They held the a very good Jets rushing attack to only 29 yards on 28 carries.

Blake Bortles has made some real nice progress this season in throwing for 2,193 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He should continue to find plenty of success against this awful Ravens defense that is giving up 26.7 points and 383.6 yards per game.  The Ravens rank 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 283.9 yards per game through the air.  They have yielded 290-plus passing yards in five of their last seven contests.

Yes, the Jaguars are also 2-6, but their outlook is much greater.  They only trail the Colts by two games for first place in the AFC South.  Plus, the Colts just lost QB Andrew Luck for a few games due to injury.  So they have a realistic chance of coming back and winning the division.  The Jaguars are only getting outgained by an average of 3.3 yards per game this season, so this team is better than their 2-6 record suggests.

Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, in November games are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the alst 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Jacksonville.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee Titans +6

At 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season, the Carolina Panthers could not have gotten off to a better start.  But now we enter the second half of the season, and the Panthers have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply cannot live up to going forward.  That starts this week as they are massive 6-point road favorites over the Tennessee Titans.

The Panthers are coming off four huge wins over the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers, and I cannot help but think they are gassed after those games.  They beat the top two Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, and now they have a feeling of satisfaction.  They also have a two-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, so I expect them to take their foot off the gas this week.

The Titans are undervalued due to their 2-6 start this season.  Most teams at 2-6 wouldn't have a shot at the playoffs, but the Titans actually do.  They are only two games behind the Colts in the AFC South.  They picked up a season-saving win last week behind interim coach Mike Mularkey.  They won 34-28 at New Orleans as 6.5-point underdogs, and I look for them to build off that momentum this week.

The Titans have been very competitive at home even though they're 0-4.  Three of their four losses came by 3 points or less to Indianapolis (33-35), Buffalo (13-14) and Atlanta (7-10).  They did have a 10-38 loss to the Dolphins, but Marcus Mariota was injured early in that game and they committed four turnovers as he tried playing through the pain, but was ineffective.  Mariota sat out the next two games, which were losses to the Falcons and Texans.

But Mariota returned last week against the Saints to lead the Titans to a whopping 483 yards of total offense.  This offense is so much better with him at the helm, it's not even close.  He is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards (8.0/attempt) and 13 touchdowns against five interceptions.

One thing that's getting overlooked here is that the Titans have actually been better than the Panthers statistically on defense.  The Titans rank 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 329.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 14th in yielding 350.0 yards per game.  The Panthers are only outgaining teams by 8.9 yards per game this year, which isn't the sign of a team that should be 8-0.  To compare, the Titans are outgaining teams by 2.5 yards per game, which is a mark that signifies better than a 2-6 team.

Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Off that huge win over the Packers last week, it's only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown here.  I expect an outright upset by Tennessee, but I'll take the points for some insurance.  Take the Titans Sunday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5

Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.

But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.

Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.

True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.

Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp.  Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.

Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.

Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.

Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons.  And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now.  This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.

Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10

Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.

It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.

It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.  He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.

One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.

Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.

Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.

This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.

LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.

Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU.  So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real.  Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge.  They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.

The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.

Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road.  Those are three of the better teams in the NBA.  It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.

This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.

Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal.  I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.

Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more.  They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game.  I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5

First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers.  They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process.  It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.

Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking.  I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was.  This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering. 

Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread.  Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games?  FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times.  Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.

The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home.  The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams.  They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt.  And this game?  This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here.  While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters.  The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.

I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here.  He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out.  But that could be a blessing in disguise.  Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own.  He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.

Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19.  Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season.  Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense.  He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out.  This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.

Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average.  Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record.  The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year.  The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14

This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14.  This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week.  The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles.  Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win.  The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.

Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year.  But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season.  The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish.  They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.

In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.  They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami.  I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals.  Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away.  Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.

Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday.  That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams.  So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week.  They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year.  I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49.  With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair.  That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout.  The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55

Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week.  That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be.  This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.

Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett.  Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise.  But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.

Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores.  I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.

Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER.  The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week.  They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win.  Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.

Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well.  Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.

Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons.  It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012.  As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games.  But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.

Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15

This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite.  They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game.  With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.

At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14.  The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs.  David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.

What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern.  Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.

It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits.  The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year.  Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game.  They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.

Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version.  Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers.  In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs.  I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.

Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern.  Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats.  The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points.  They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.

Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here.  He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally.  Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas.  Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.

The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan.  Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.

Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year.  They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year.  This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.

UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center.  Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game.  Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents.  Roll with UNLV Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.  Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.

Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year.  But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA.  Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively.  It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.

Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average.  Bet Mississippi State Friday.

15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59

USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense.  The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season.  They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.

Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season.  The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.

But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams.  USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago.  Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.

Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons.  We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games.  Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach.  Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3.  The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game.  That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.

The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games.  They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett.  The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either.  Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.

Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice).  But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record.  The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.

As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven.  That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight.  Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -2.5

The Jets are going to want revenge from getting embarrassed by the Bills in both meetings last season. The good news is that they now have the talent to get that revenge as they are a much more complete squad this year. They have gotten off to a 5-3 start this season and are a legitimate playoff contender due to their improved offense and lockdown defense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best signings of the entire offseason from any team. He is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,790 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He was knocked out of the game early in their loss to the Raiders two weeks ago, but returned last week to throw for 274 yards and two touchdowns without an interception to lead the Jets to a 28-23 win over the Jaguars at home.

Fitzpatrick leads an underrated Jets offense that actually ranks 11th at 365.9 yards per game. The Jets are also 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 323.2 yards per game. They rank 6th in the league in yardage differential at +42.6 yards per game. The Bills are only 18th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. They average 350.5 on offense and give up 353.3 on defense.

I believe this line is lower than it should be for the simple fact that the Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games. But they were in bad spots in both games. They had to travel out to the West Coast to face Oakland a week after a heartbreaking loss to New England that had to be tough to recover from. Then they faced a Jacksonville team last week that was coming off its bye week, yet still won 28-23 as 7.5-point favorites.

At the same time, Buffalo is overvalued due to its 33-17 win over Miami last week. That game was closer than the final score as the Bills only outgained the Dolphins by 23 yards. The Bills were also in a good spot last week because they were coming off their bye week. I just can’t help but think this line is lower than it should be due to recent results against the spread for both teams.

But I’m not nearly as forgiving as the betting public is over one good performance from the Bills that followed poor outings. Remember, the Bills lost three of their previous four games before that win over Miami. They were blown out by both the Giants (10-24) and Bengals (21-34) at home, and they also lost to the Jaguars (31-34) in London. Their only win during that stretch was extremely fortunate in a 14-13 win at Tennessee. They trailed 10-0 until the end of the 3rd quarter and were outgained by 67 yards by the Titans.

New York has taken care of business at home this season, going 3-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Its only home loss came back in Week 3 in a 17-24 setback to Philadelphia. But the Jets gave that game away by committing four turnovers. Those turnovers, plus an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, were the difference. The Jets actually outgained the Eagles by 92 yards in that game, and they’ve outgained six of their eight opponents this year.

Buffalo is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 games off a home win over a division opponent. The Bills are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more over a division foe as well. The Jets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. The Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Jazz OVER 183.5

It's no surprise that the Jazz played in their highest-scoring game of the season last time out with their 114-118 loss at Cleveland.  Rudy Gobert got hurt in that game, and he's their defensive stopper who is averaging 3.4 blocks per game.  X-rays on Gobert's ankle were negative, but there's a good chance he doesn't play in this game, which would force the Jazz to play small ball.

I believe there's value with this low 183.5-point total because the oddsmakers have been forced to set it too low due to Miami going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games overall.  But all previous Miami totals this season have been set at 191 points or more, so this is by far the lowest Miami total of the season.  It's also the second-lowest Utah total this year.

The recent history in this series really makes me like the OVER.  The Heat and Jazz have combined for at least 183 points in each of their last 10 meetings, and 188 or more points in 9 of those.  They have averaged 201.9 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 183.5.

Utah is 70-38 to the OVER in its last 108 road games after scoring 110 points or more.  Miami is 17-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-2 OVER in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5

While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.

Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.

You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.

Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.

The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5.  That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.

Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 202

I look for some offensive fireworks tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers.  These are two of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and I expect each to reach the 100-point mark as this one easily goes over the number.

Portland ranks 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Blazers play small ball this year with two of the most underrated guards in the NBA in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollumn.  They have scored at least 103 points in each of their last five games coming in.  BUt their defense has given up an average of 114.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Detroit and Denver.

San Antonio comes in ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 102.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Spurs are starting to get comfortable with LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 110.0 points per game in back-to-back wins over Charlotte and Sacramento.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, all of which took place last season.  The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203, 248, 206 and 206 points in the four meetings.  That's an average of 215.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13.8 more than tonight's posted total of 202.  I will note that one of those games was in overtime, though, but these teams still had no problem exceeding 202 points when they got together last year, and the Blazers aren't as good defensively this year while the Spurs are better offensively.

Portland is 14-3 to the OVER versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 43% or lower over the last three seasons.  San Antonio is 15-4 to the OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 23-9 to the OVER as an underdog over the last two years.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Portland.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, who are known for playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  There's no question that the Grizzlies are going to be out for revenge following their 119-69 loss to Golden State earlier this season, and I believe their intensity on the defensive end will lead to the UNDER.

The Grizzlies are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season.  They like to play slow-it-down ball and run their offense through Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, which leads to low-scoring games on the regular.  Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game, and 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.2 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

These teams are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference playoffs last year, and already playing once this season.  The UNDER is 8-2 in all meetings between these teams dating back to last year.  They have combined for less than 200 points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have averaged 187.7 combined points in their last seven meetings, which is 12.3 points less than tonight's posted total of 200, which is also where the value comes in here.

The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 game s overall.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Warriors last 68 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 44-16-1 in Grizzlies last 61 games overall.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Grizzlies last 27 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3

This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.

Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.  The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.

Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.

Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed.  Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process.  Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.

It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.

Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.

Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Pelicans UNDER 211.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 0-6 and in desperate need of a win.  They only way they are going to get one is if they start playing better defense.  These players know that, and I look for their best defensive effort of the season tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.

"We have to come out and compete to a level where the game's over and we're drained," All-Star Anthony Davis said. "We're not doing that right now. We've got to find a way to compete for the whole 48 (minutes)."

The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries this season, so their offense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders, either. Anthony Davis has been double-teamed and asked to do too much.  Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are all shooting less than 42 percent.  These four just aren't getting enough help and there is a lot of pressure on them to deliver.

Dallas is a team full of veterans who don't like to run the floor as much as they used to.  As a result, the Mavericks are averaging just 99.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting.  Deron Williams, Wesley Mathews and Chandler Parsons are all on minutes restrictions right now as they work their way back from injuries.  Dirk Nowitzki also plays fewer and fewer minutes every year.

One thing I really love about this UNDER is the fact that these teams just played three days ago, and then had two days off and will play again tonight.  The Mavs won that game 107-98 for 205 combined points only after a 35-28 fourth quarter.  These teams are now obviously very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses in this home-and-home situation.  Dallas also won the previous meeting 102-93 for 195 combined points.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavs last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Pelicans last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high in this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers.  I'll gladly back the UNDER as these teams don't come close to reaching 200 combined points tonight.

For starters, both teams are dealing with some injuries to their most important offensive players.  The Clippers are expected to be without Chris Paul, who is doubtful with a groin injury.  Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies' go-to guy offensively, but he's questionable with a calf injury.

This has been a very low-scoring series even when players have been healthy for both teams.  The Grizzlies and Clippers have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  That includes 180, 176 and 177 combined points in their last three.  They have averaged 185.2 combined points in those six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Both teams are going to be playing with more intensity than normal in this game.  That's because the Grizzlies have lost two straight coming in, while the Clippers have also lost two straight.  That added intensity will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

The Grizzlies rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.2 possessions per game.  They are a slow-it-down team that cashes a lot of UNDER tickets because they are also 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers won't play with as much pace as they normally would with Paul.  Austin Rivers is one of the worst backup point guards in the NBA.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 43-16-1 in Grizzlies last 60 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bears/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +4.5

Neither of these teams have gotten off to the start that they wanted. Both could easily be better than what they are with some better fortune in close games as the Bears are just 2-5 while the Chargers are 2-6. I believe there’s a good chance this game is close as well, which is why there’s some nice line value with getting the Bears as 4.5-point underdogs in this one.

The Bears are dealing with a couple injuries, mainly to Matt Forte, but otherwise are relatively healthy. But the Chargers are a complete mash unit right now. Almost half of their starters are hurt right now and either out or questionable. That includes WR Keenan Allen, T King Dunlap, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, TE Ladarius Green, S Eric Weddle, LB Denzel Perryman, G Orlando Franklin and LB Manti Te’o. With so many injuries to key players, the Chargers just cannot be trusted to cover this 4-point spread.

The Chargers have just had a knack for playing in close games because their defense cannot stop anyone. Seven of their eight games have been decided by 8 points or less, with the lone exception being a 14-31 loss at Minnesota. Their only two wins have come against Detroit (33-28) and Cleveland (30-27) at home, and we know how bad those teams have been this season with the Lions at 1-7 and the Browns at 2-7.

The Chargers rank 27th in scoring defense at 28.4 points per game allowed and 31st in yards per play at 6.3 allowed. The Bears have actually been respectable defensively, ranking 9th in the league in total defense at 342.3 yards per game allowed. I bet there aren’t too many people out there that realize John Fox has turned this into a Top 10 defense, but that’s a fact.

I really like this matchup for the Bears, who rank 4th in the NFL against the pass (214.3 yards/game). The Chargers only throw the football and aren’t a threat to run as they rank 1st in the NFL in passing (336.9 yards/game) and 29th in rushing (86.4 yards/game). The Bears have actually held five opponents to less than 200 passing yards. They only gave up 189 to the Packers, 185 to the Cardinals, and 173 to the Raiders, which are three of the better passing offenses in the NFL.

The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen cannot be overstated. He was by far the biggest playmaker on this San Diego offense up to this point. Allen has 67 receptions for 725 yards and four touchdowns this year. Danny Woodhead is 2nd on the team in receiving with 39 receptions for 443 yards and two scores, and he’s a running back. So the loss of Allen is absolutely huge because he was Rivers’ comfort blanket on third down. There is no replacement for him on this roster.

Chicago’s last four games have all been decided by a field goal or less. I could easily see that streak extending to five here, but I actually like their chances to win now that Jay Cutler has his best weapon in Alshon Jeffery back. The offense has thrived in the three games with Jeffery. The Bears racked up 402 yards with Jeffery in the lineup in Week 1 against the Packers, 444 yards in Week 7 against the Vikings, and 305 yards in Week 8 against the Vikings. That output against Minnesota wasn’t great, but the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jeffery has 23 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns in two-plus games this year.

The Bears are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS against the Chargers in their last six meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 83-40 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The Bears are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule.  They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.

After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night.  They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago.  They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in.  Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins).  Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.

The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites.  Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss.  Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* Broncos/Colts AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Indianapolis +5.5

The Denver Broncos are overvalued here due to their 29-10 win over the Packers last week. They were out to prove their doubters wrong in that game, and they did a great job of it. But now they are in a massive letdown spot here against the Colts a week later.  They are also laying too many points because the public is putting too much stock into that win over the Packers. Had they not won that game, they would only be a 3-point favorite or less in this game, which is where the value comes in with this 5.5-point spread.

The Colts are undervalued right now because they have lost three straight and are just 1-5 with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback. But their last three losses have all come by seven points or less, so they have had some poor fortune in close games for the first time in a long time. The Colts are extremely motivated for a victory to turn their season around, and it starts this week against the Broncos.

I like the fight I saw from the Colts last week against the unbeaten Panthers. Things weren’t going great for them for three quarters, but they found a way to come back with 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime to take a 26-23 lead. They would eventually lose the game to the Panthers, who kicked two straight field goals thereafter to win 29-26. But this team can build from that loss.

I also like that head coach Chuck Pagano fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. The Colts were supposed to be a more run-oriented offense this season, but Hamilton wasn’t following script. Look for new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski to get back to running the ball and taking pressure off of Andrew Luck. He was Cleveland’s head coach in 2013 and also coached Cam Newton in Carolina. He knows the importance of establishing a running game, especially when he has Frank Gore at his disposal.

Indianapolis has had Denver’s number with Andrew Luck. It is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings. It won 39-33 at home in 2013, lost 24-31 as 8-point road dogs in 2014, and then pulled the 24-13 road upset as 9.5-point dogs in the playoffs last year. The Broncos were also 6-0 when they went into Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013, and obviously they left with that 33-39 loss.

This is a classic buy low, sell high situation.  We're selling high on all of the great news coming out of Denver right now with their 7-0 start and their win over the Packers, coupled with their addition of Vernon Davis, who won't play a big role in this game after getting traded from the 49ers.  We're also buying low on the Colts, who are coming off three straight losses, and that has prompted rumblings about head coach Chuck Pagano's job status.

Plays against favorites (DENVER) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. As you can see, teams coming off upset wins like the one the Broncos had last week do not usually fare well the next week. This is simply because it’s hard to get up for the next game after such a big win. The Colts will be ready to play Sunday, and the Broncos will have a hard time matching their intensity level.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They should not be a home underdog to the New York Giants with the way they are playing right now.  They have won two of their last three games overall, including a 23-20 win at Atlanta last week.  They also beat Jacksonville 38-31 at home.  Their only loss was a 30-31 setback at Washington after they blew a 24-0 lead.  They actually outgained the Redskins by 124 yards in that game.

Tampa Bay put up a stinker in its opener against Tennessee, but it has been a much improved team ever since.  It has outgained four of its last six opponents.  It even outgained the unbeaten Carolina Panthers by 167 yards at home despite losing that game.  It went on the road and beat New Orleans 26-19 as well, and that was with a healthy Drew Brees.  So this team has shown me enough to know they can beat just about anyone and play with anyone.

The Giants, on the other hand, are extremely fortunate to be 4-4 right now.  It's embarrassing that head coach Tom Coughlin believes they should have won last week against New Orleans.  They  were outgained by 192 yards and their defense gave up 614 total yards, including 511 passing.  They were fortunate to beat the Cowboys 27-20 at home two weeks earlier as they were outgained by 171 yards in that game.  They were also outgained by 181 yards in their 7-27 loss at Philadelphia three weeks ago.

In fact, the Giants have been outgained in seven of their eight games this season.  They only exception was a 30-27 home win over San Francisco, and that victory looks even worse now because of how poor the 49ers are playing.  They needed a last-second touchdown to beat them.  The Giants rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 75.0 yards per game.  Only the 49ers have been worse.

The reason the Giants have been able to scrounge out a .500 record to this point is because they are plus-11 in turnover differential, which is the best mark in the league.  There is a ton of luck involved with turnovers, and that has help mask some of the inefficiencies of this team.  The Giants rank last in the NFL in total defense (427.5 yards/game) and last against the pass (315.4 yards/game).

The Giants' offense gets more credit than it deserves.  They average 352 yards per game and 5.7 per play against opposing defenses that allow 362 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Their defense gives up 428 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 356 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  The Bucs don't get enough credit for their solid per play numbers.  Tampa Bay averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 per play on defense, which are both better than the Giants.

New York is just 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Buffalo.  The Giants are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in their last game over the past three seasons.  They are coming back the next week to lose by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They are still probably gassed from that shootout in New Orleans, and it doesn't help that they could be without some key players in CB Prince Amukamara, TE Larry Donnell, LB Jon Beason and WR Reuben Randle.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly motivated for a win this week following two straight losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. They just couldn’t close the deal last week against Cincinnati despite leading almost the entire game and outgaining the Bengals by 60 yards. Ben Roethlisberger was clearly rusty in his first start back from injury, tossing three interceptions. But expect him to be back to his old self this week now that he's healthier and to come back with a much stronger performance.

Because Oakland has won two straight while Pittsburgh has lost two straight, this line is lower than it should be. The Raiders were in great spots in their last two games, catching their opponents in bad spots. They were off their bye in a 37-29 win at San Diego, while the Chargers were off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Packers the previous week. Then last week, the Raiders caught the Jets in a hangover spot after their loss to the Patriots the previous week. But this is now a bad spot for the Raiders, who catch a pissed off Steelers team.

I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of the Steelers defense this season as they are only giving up 18.4 points per game. They have held seven of their eight opponents to 23 points or fewer, with the only exception behind the 28 points scored by the Patriots in the opener, who are scoring on everyone. The Raiders are improved offensively this year, but they are no juggernaut.

I know Le’Veon Bell is likely out for the season, but the Steelers have a capable running back in DeAngelo Williams, who is better than he gets credit for. Williams has taken advantage of his opportunities, rushing for 310 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He is also averaging 6.7 yards per reception out of the backfield and has pretty much matched Bell in terms of production when given a chance. Bell averages 4.9 yards per carry and 5.7 per reception for comparison's sake.

Roethlisberger and Williams should find plenty of holes in this Oakland defense. The Raiders are giving up 24.7 points and 385.0 yards per game. Oakland ranks 31st against the pass, giving up a whopping 302.1 passing yards per game. You can bet that Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and company are licking their chops at the opportunity to go up against this defense this week.

Oakland will be traveling out East for an early start time.  West Coast teams have not handled these situations well.  Pittsburgh has already beaten two teams from the West in San Francisco and Arizona pretty handily at home.  The Steelers won 43-18 over the 49ers and 25-13 over the Cardinals, and they were even playing without Roethlisberger in that game against Arizona.

Plays against any team (Oakland) off an upset win as a home underdog are 86-47 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Oakland is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games following an upset win as a home underdog, coming back to lose by 18.8 points per game in this spot.  The Raiders aren't used to handling success and won't handle it well this week.

Pittsburgh is 53-22 ATS in its last 75 vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Oakland is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. AFC North opponents. Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS after losing two of its last three games over the past three seasons, coming back to win by 9.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

I’ve faded the Packers with success in each of their last two games. They only won 27-20 at home over the Chargers as 10.5-point favorites and lost 10-29 at Denver last week as 2.5-point favorites. I believed they were overvalued in both of those games, but now I’m reversing roles and believing they are undervalued as only 2.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers this week.

While I believe the Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with the league’s best defense, I also feel that the Panthers are one of the biggest frauds in the NFL. They may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the league. There’s no way this team should be undefeated right now, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve had some good fortune in close games, and they clearly aren’t as good as their record.

The Panthers only rank 12th in the NFL in yardages differential, outgaining teams by just 6.5 yards per game. That’s not the kind of number you would expect from a 7-0 team. But they are 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had chances to lose in all of their games this season but found a way to win them all, which is mostly luck with all of the breaks going their way late in games.

The Panthers have also benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up to this point.  They haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet as all seven of their wins have come against teams with a .500 record or worse.  Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in the 6-1 Packers, and they will meet their match.

Green Bay is going to come back highly motivated this week. Aaron Rodgers hates to get embarrassed the way he did by Peyton Manning and the Broncos, and that’s going to be eating at him all week leading up to this game. Look for Mike McCarthy and company to make the proper adjustments to get this offense back to hitting on all cylinders this week.  Plus, Rodgers hasn't lost back-to-back games as a starter since 2010.  He always bounces back from losses.

Carolina doesn’t have the firepower offensively to keep up with Rodgers and company. It is only averaging 349.1 yards per game and 5.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. This is still a below-average, vanilla offense that relies too heavily on the running game to move the football.

The Panthers also aren’t as good defensively as they get credit for, and they certainly aren’t up to the level of the Broncos on this side of the ball. They have allowed 22 or more points in four of their last five games, which isn’t the sign of an elite defense. They have a lot of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball too with guys like Dwan Edwards, Charles Johnson and Frank Alexander out.  LB Shaq Thompson and DE Mario Addison are questionable, while C Ryan Kalil is also questionable on offense.

Last year, Green Bay throttled Carolina 38-17 at home as 6.5-point favorites. This was actually a 38-3 game with under 10 minutes to play before the Panthers put up 14 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Rodgers completed 19 of 22 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns against this Carolina defense.  He has thrown for an average of 287.0 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception in three career meetings with the Panthers.

I also like the fact that Carolina will be on short rest after playing an overtime game on Monday Night Football. That will work in the Packers’ favor here. They will not only be the more motivated team off that loss to the Broncos, they will also be the more rested and more prepared team here.

Mike McCarthy is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 21-10 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers, who are coming back to win by 11.9 points per game in this spot. Ron Rivera is 2-10 ATS in home games after playing a home game as the coach of Carolina. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons, winning by 17.8 points per game in this spot.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1.5

The Washington Huskies are going to be contenders in the Pac-12 for years to come now that Chris Petersen is getting his players in place.  They may be just 4-4 this season, but from what I've seen from them, they can beat any team in the country.  They've even proven that at times this year.

The Huskies could be 7-1 right now because they've lost some heartbreakers to some very good teams in Boise State (13-16) on the road, California (24-30) at home and Oregon (20-26) at home.  Their only blowout loss came at Stanford 14-31 as 14.5-point underdogs, and even that wasn't that big of a blowout.  Plus, QB Jake Browning missed the Stanford game with a shoulder injury, but returned to throw a season-high 4 TD passes against Arizona last week.

Washington has gone on the road and beaten USC 17-12 as 17-point underdogs, which is a tremendous performance because USC is a lot better team than its record.  After some tough losses since that win, the Huskies came through with their most complete performance of the season in a 49-3 beat down of Arizona at home last week.  They racked up 468 yards of total offense while the defense forced four Arizona turnovers in the win.

Washington leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, giving up just 20.4 points per game in conference play.  Arizona had been averaging 41.8 points before being held to just a field goal last week.  Now the Huskies will be up against one of the worst offenses they've played in Utah.

The Utes are so predictable offensively because they rely on Devontae Booker too much.  Booker averages 156.0 yards from scrimmage, accounting for 43.2 percent of the team's scrimmage yards.  His 232 touches leads the nation.  But because the Utes continue to get shaky QB play from Travis Wilson, I cannot take them seriously.

They are very fortune to be 7-1 this season.  The Utes have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season by USC, Cal, Utah State and Michigan.  They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 24.3 yards per game on the season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 7-1 team.  They struggled to put away Oregon State last week before getting a couple late scores to win 27-12 as 26-point home favorites.

The numbers really show that Washington is the better team in this one.  The Huskies average 5.9 yards per play on offense against opposing defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play.  The Huskies only give up 4.8 yards per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play.  Utah averages 5.6 yards per play on offense against defenses that allow 5.4 per play.  The Utes allow 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 5.8 per play.  Utah has never beaten Washington as Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Hawks OVER 204

The Washington Wizards are making a concentrated effort to take advantage of their youth and to get up and down the floor.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, averaging 105.2 possessions per game.  That has led to an average of 103.2 points per game, but it has also hampered their defense as they are giving up 106.8 points per contest.

Atlanta doesn't run as much, but it is very efficient on the offensive end, just as it was last season.  The Hawks rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 103.5 points per 100 possessions.  They had their best offensive night yet in a 121-115 win at New Orleans last night.

All four regular season meetings between the Hawks and Wizards saw at least 201 combined points last season, and 207 or more three times.  They averaged 206.3 combined points per game in those four regular season meetings.  But with the Wizards making an effort to push the ball more, I believe there is plenty of value with this over.

The OVER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings, including 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Oregon State Beavers.  They are just 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Pac-12 play.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their numbers higher than they should be here of late. I took advantage by backing them as 26-point road underdogs against Utah last week, and I'll back them again as 17.5-point home dogs against UCLA this week.

What I see from this Oregon State outfit is an improving team as the season goes on.  The Beavers should have beaten Colorado in a 13-17 home loss.  They outgained the Buffaloes by 73 yards and held them to just 328 yards of total offense.  That's the same Colorado team that only lost 31-35 at home to UCLA as 23.5-point underdogs last week.  The Buffaloes even outgained the Bruins by a whopping 154 total yards and should have won that game.

Then last week against the No. 3 ranked team in the country in Utah, Oregon State put up a fight for four quarters on the road.  The Beavers eventually lost 12-27 as 26-point underdogs, but this was a 24-12 game with eight minutes to play.  They were only outgained 312-372 by the Utes for their second straight strong defensive performance.  Their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, too.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UCLA.  The Bruins were already without star LB Myles Jack and leading tackler Isaako Savaiinaea, but then inside linebacker Kenny Young had to leave the Colorado game with an upper-body injury.  Josh Woods, a freshman who had been on track to redshirt, was then pressed into action for the first time before suffering hamstring injury.  The injuries just keep coming, especially to the LB corps.

"Man, the injuries have reached just comical proportions," said Deon Hollins, who returned against Colorado after missing one game because of a knee injury.  "I've never seen it," receiver Jordan Payton said. "I haven't even heard of something like this before. It's crazy, but that is a part of football. We play a game with a 100 percent injury rate, so it's going to happen."

Those injuries left UCLA able to only run two defenses for most of the game against Colorado.  The Buffaloes' offense officially ran a school-record 114 plays, one shy of the FBS single-game record.  So the Bruins were on the field for most of the game, and I don't believe they'll be fully recovered in time to face the Beavers this week after giving up 554 total yards to the Buffaloes.

Oregon State is a run-first team that is averaging 179 rushing yards per game this season.  That bodes well for the Beavers.  The Bruins have struggled to stop the run due to all of the injuries at linebacker.  They rank last in the Pac-12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (208), and that total has ballooned to 245.8 yards in conference play.  So the Beavers will be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack, which will help them easily stay within this 17.5-point spread.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings between UCLA and Oregon State have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UCLA is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bruins are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee -2.5

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in danger of missing a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They went 6-6 last year and didn't get invited to a bowl, and despite returning 16 starters this year, they sit at just 3-5 and needed three more wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible.

It's safe to say that the Blue Raiders will be putting their best foot forward this week against Marshall as a result.  Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time as it has given them a chance to regroup and refocus.  I look for their best effort of the season here Saturday against a Marshall team that played last week and hasn't had a bye yet, so they are tired.

Middle Tennessee is way better than its 3-5 record would indicate.  It has lost to two Power 5 teams in Vanderbilt (13-17) and Illinois (25-27) by a combined 6 points.  It has already had to go on the road and play Alabama, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech as well.  You would be hard-pressed to find many other teams who have played as difficult a schedule as the Blue Raiders up to this point.

But Middle Tennessee has taken care of business at home, going 3-1 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 29.8 points per game.  Its offense has averaged 49.5 points and 527.2 yards per game at home, while its defense has only given up 19.7 points and 320.7 yards per game.  Two years ago, Middle Tennessee pulled the 51-49 upset of Marshall as 10-point underdogs.  That was a much better Marshall team than the 2015 version.

The Thundering Herd are nowhere near as good as their 8-1 record would indicate.  They have played such a soft schedule up to this point with their nine games coming against Purdue, Ohio, Norfolk State, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Charlotte.  You would be hard-pressed to find an easier schedule in the country than that.  So the Thundering Herd aren't battle-tested, and this is going to be their stiffest test yet.

Marshall is only outgaining teams 393.7 to 349.6 on the season, which isn't the sign of an 8-1 team.  Its offense has taken a huge step back this year, averaging those 393.7 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 424 yards per game.  The defense is only giving up 349.6 yards per game, but that's not that impressive when you consider opposing offenses only average 359 yards per game.  Now the Thundering Herd recently lost their best player in RB Devon Johnson, who had rushed for 555 yards and 6.6 per carry with five touchdowns.  He may return this week, but it's not going to matter.

Marshall has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It lost 10-21 at Ohio while getting outgained by 122 yards.  That's the same Ohio team that has blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62) in its last three games.  The Thundering Herd also needed overtime to beat Kent State 36-29 on the road, and they were outgained by 159 yards in that game and shouldn't have won.  Kent State is just 3-6 this season with blowout losses to Illinois (3-52), Toledo (7-38) and Bowling Green (0-48).

Marshall is 38-62 ATS in its last 100 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The home team is 4-0 straight up in four all-time meetings between these programs having never lost.  Take Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* TCU/Oklahoma State Big 12 Battle of Unbeatens on TCU -5

The TCU Horned Frogs are getting the shaft once again from the playoff committee with the release of the first rankings on November 3. Despite going 12-1 last year with their only loss to Baylor by 3 points on the road, and opening 8-0 this year, they are only No. 8 in the playoff rankings. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend to come away with a blowout victory.

Sure, the Horned Frogs have some close road wins this season over Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. But none of those three places are easy atmospheres. Plus, the Horned Frogs were banged up big-time defensively in all three of those games. But their defense is slowly getting healthy, and now it’s starting to play up to the level that it did last year.

In fact, TCU has only allowed 10 points in the last seven quarters to Iowa State and West Virginia. After falling behind 21-14 to Iowa State, it held the Cyclones scoreless for the final three quarters to pull away for a 45-21 road win. Last week, the Horned Frogs put together their most complete performance yet in a 40-10 home win over West Virginia. They outgained the Mountaineers 616-327 for the game.  The Mountaineers had 27 consecutive games of at least 350 total yards snapped in that loss.  They were averaging 486 yards per game coming in.

The Horned Frogs' last four opponents have only scored a combined 17 points after halftime, so Gary Patterson and company are making some serious adjustments at the break that have paid big dividends.  The Horned Frogs have used 16 first-time starters this year on defense, so their depth is really improving as the season goes alone.

Starting seniors Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua have been back on the right side of the defensive line after both missed three games.  Pierson is the most experienced starter with 35 career starts, 10 more than senior safety Derrick Kindred.  ''Like a spark, he comes back with all this energy, his craziness. We just feed of him, great to have him back,'' defensive tackle Aaron Curry said of Pierson. ''He has this energy about him that everybody feeds off.''

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both teams have faced Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech and West Virginia this season. TCU is 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 20.8 points per game and outgaining them by 220.3 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 4-0 against those four teams, but it is only outscoring them by 7.3 points per game, and outgaining them by 45.8 yards per game. TCU has been 13.5 PPG and 174 YPG better than Oklahoma State in those four games.  It’s clear by those numbers that the Horned Frogs are the superior team.

Oklahoma State will be a little gassed from the shootout it played at Texas Tech last week. It needed a 42-15 second half to beat the Red Raiders 70-53. The Cowboys won’t be able to match the energy of the Horned Frogs, who breezed to a 40-10 win at West Virginia last Thursday. That means they will have an extra two days of rest prior to this weekend’s game.

Last year, TCU crushed Oklahoma State 42-9 at home in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Horned Frogs outgained the Cowboys 676-258 for the game, or by 418 total yards.  Trevone Boykin threw for 410 yards, including 225 and two touchdowns to stud receiver Josh Doctson, who is having a monster year again in 2015.  While I don’t expect that kind of blowout again, I do believe it’s fair to assume that the Horned Frogs will win this game by a touchdown or more.

TCU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a Thursday game. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. TCU is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points are 56-24 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State +11

At 8-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, the Clemson Tigers have earned the faith of the betting public. They have gone 5-2-1 ATS through those eight games, and if you bet on them early in the week, then you would be 7-1 as their lines just keep moving in favor of them throughout the week. That’s because the betting public has really gravitated toward this team with the way they are playing right now. As a result, I believe Clemson is simply laying too many points this week against Florida State.

Clemson has played a pretty soft schedule up to this point with its lone signature win coming at home against Notre Dame by a final of 24-22 as 3-point favorites in the slop. The Tigers were actually outgained by 141 yards by the Fighting Irish and were fortunate to win that game. I’m just not sold that this team is a national title contender at this point in the season due to the softness of the schedule.

Florida State would be 8-0 as well if not for a blocked field goal on the game’s final play that was returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech. It was the first regular season loss for the Seminoles in three years and only their second loss overall in the past three seasons combined. But somehow, this team just doesn’t get much credit for what it has done, and what it is doing.

This will certainly be the first time in the past three years that the Seminoles have been double-digit dogs, and if you were ever going to back them, this would be the time.  Florida State has never been a double-digit dog under Jimbo Fisher.  In fact, the Seminoles have only been an underdog to Clemson twice in the last 35 years, and they won both of those games outright.

I love the resiliency the Seminoles showed last week in bouncing back from that loss to Georgia Tech with a 45-21 home win over Syracuse. They dominated that game, outgaining the Orange 575-303. They did so without two of their studs in Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, who were both out with injury.

While both Golson and Cook are probable, I don’t think it would matter either way. Sean Maguire is a veteran quarterback who can handle the load, and he proved it last week with 348 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Syracuse. Jacques Patrick filled in nicely for Cook, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. The Seminoles are a deep, talented team who can use the ‘next man up’ mentality because of their depth.

Last year, Maguire saved Florida State’s season against Clemson. He played the entire game in place of an injured Jameis Winston and led the Seminoles to a 23-17 (OT) victory. Maguire threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win. And that was against a much better Clemson defense than the one the Seminoles will be up against Saturday. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State last week and aren’t as good on that side of the ball as they are getting credit for with just three starters back from last year.

The Seminoles are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Tigers. In their only trip to Clemson during this stretch, they won 51-14 as 5-point favorites in 2013. They outgained the Tigers 565-326 for the game. They have only lost to Clemson by double-digits once in the last nine meetings in this series. I believe they can stay within double-digits of the Tigers this weekend as well, and I'm not ruling out the outright upset.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* College Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +21

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Florida Gators.  They are coming off a huge 27-3 win over their arch rivals in the Georgia Bulldogs.  Expect them to come out lacking the kind of focus it's going to take to put away this pesky Vanderbilt team by three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt was in a big letdown spot last week against Houston as it stepped out of conference following its first SEC win under second-year head coach Derek Mason.  The Commodores failed to show up and beat themselves by committing four turnovers and essentially handing Houston 21 points in a 34-0 loss.

Turnovers have been the Commodores' undoing as they've put up decent numbers overall, but are -11 in turnover differential.  The Gators, meanwhile, have benefited from one of the best turnover differentials (+13) in the country.  There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and the Gators wouldn't be 7-1 without them.

The Commodores have been competitive in every SEC game they've played.  Their biggest loss in SEC play came against Georgia by a final of 14-31.  But that game was much closer than the final would indicate as they were only outgained by 22 yards.  They also lost by 9 to South Carolina on the road, beat Missouri 10-3, and only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point underdogs.

Vanderbilt has one of the best defenses in the country, which will keep it in this game against Florida.  The Commodores only give up 18.5 points per game, 323.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.3 points, 406 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 10.8 points, 83 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

It's not like Florida has the kind of explosive offense that is going to produce consistent blowouts.  The Gators only average 380.9 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 384 yards per game.  They already have close home wins over East Carolina (31-24) and Tennessee (28-27).

Vanderbilt has only lost to Florida by more than 14 points once in the last four years, which was a 24-point loss last season in a game that was closer than the final score showed.  The last time the Commodores went to Gainesville, they won 34-17 as 12-point underdogs in 2013.

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Commodores are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games after playing their last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Florida blowout win over Georgia last week coupled with Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Houston has created some additional line value here that is too good to pass up.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Penn State/Northwestern ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

Both Penn State and Northwestern have two losses apiece, but I have no doubt that the Nittany Lions are the better team in this one. They play in the tougher division in the Big Ten with their only losses coming to Ohio State and Temple, who are both ranked.  They have taken care of business against all lesser opponents they've faced, and I look at Northwestern as a lesser opponent.

The Wildcats have been overvalued ever since their season-opening win over Stanford.  If those teams played 10 times, the Wildcats would lose nine of them.  I believe the Wildcats' true colors showed in their 38-0 loss to Michigan where they were outgained by 212 yards, and their 10-40 home loss to Iowa where they were outgained by 294 yards.  Penn State is a very similar team to both Michigan and Iowa, but with a better quarterback.

Christian Hackenberg is starting to live up to that first-round draft status that everyone has been talking about.  Over his last six games, Hackenberg has thrown for 1,415 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He's coming off his most efficient performance of the season, hitting 21 of 29 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-0 blowout victory over Illinois.  The Nittany Lions just keep getting better as a team.

I trust Hackenberg to be able to make more plays than Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson, who is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.  Thorson is going to be under duress all game against a Nittany Lions defense that leads the nation with 36 sacks while ranking 4th against the pass at 157.9 yards per game allowed.

Northwestern is being overvalued due to its 30-28 win at Nebraska last time out.  But Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will not be making a bowl game this season.  Plus, that was a misleading final score.  At one point, the Huskers had a 10-1 edge in first downs over the Wildcats but somehow trailed 14-6.

Penn State is outgaining Big Ten opponents by 76 yards per game, while Northwestern is getting outgained by 102 yards per game in conference play, a difference of 178 yards per game that really shows how much better the Nittany Lions are than the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games following a bye week, so I'm not concerned at all with the fact that Northwestern gets extra time off before this one.  For whatever reason, Pat Fitzgerald just hasn't managed the bye weeks very well at all in his time at Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and they'll be playing with a ton of confidence after their best performance of the season in that 39-point win over Illinois.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Northwestern is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +18

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They won their first four games by a combined 100 points, so they have set expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and the oddsmakers.

I faded the Warriors with success in their last game Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers as they needed a 4th quarter comeback to win 112-108 at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They formed a rivalry with the Clippers in the offseason with all of their trash talk back and forth, and they are now in a prime letdown spot off that big win on National TV.

The Denver Nuggets have shown me enough this season to know that they can stay within this ridiculous 18-point spread.  They have actually played their two best games on the road this year, winning 105-85 at Houston as 10.5-point underdogs and 120-109 at Los Angeles (Lakers) as 3-point dogs.

The Nuggets have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 straight up in their last six meetings.  More importantly, they have only lost one of the last 51 meetings by more than 15 points and by more than this 18-point margin.  That's a ridiculous 50-1 system backing Denver pertaining to this spread.  Roll with the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are highly motivated for a victory Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks.  They are one of four winless teams this season, but they have already played the defending champion Warriors twice.  Look for the Pelicans to come out with the attitude that they're not going to be denied of their first victory as I fully expect their strongest performance of the season here.

The Pelicans are shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, which isn't going to last.  Antony Davis, who shot 53.5 percent last year and averaged 24.4 points per game, is only shooting 37.9 percent this year.  Eric Gordon (36.7%), Jrue Holiday (37%) & Ryan Anderson (39.7%) are all shooting below 40 percent.  All four of these guys are good shooters, and it's not going to last.  They'll break out of the slump tonight.

Atlanta is overvalued right now due to winning five straight since a season-opening 94-106 home loss to Detroit.  The Hawks have won three times by six points or less during this streak, so they've been fortunate in close games.  They've also played a very easy schedule with the Knicks, Hornets (twice), Heat and Nets.  This will be their first matchup against a Western Conference team this season.

The Pelicans have owned the Hawks in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.  They've won two games on the road, and in their lone home meeting last year, they won 115-100 as identical 3-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS off two straight games where it had 10 or more steals over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Look for the Pelicans to feed off of their home crowd tonight as they cheer them on to their first victory.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* Temple/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +13.5

The average bettor would look at this line and assume that Temple is obviously the right side as only 13-point favorites. You have a 7-1 Temple team that is unbeaten within the conference up against a 1-7 SMU team that has lost all four of its conference games. Seems obvious, right? Well, this is where situational handicapping comes into play, and this line is smaller than the general public thinks it should be for a reason.

This is a horrible spot for Temple. It is deflated following its 20-24 home loss to then-No. 9 Notre Dame last weekend. It held a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes remaining before giving up a touchdown to the Fighting Irish to lose a heartbreaker. ESPN’s College Gameday was in Philadelphia for this game, so it was hyped up all last week. These players aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to face SMU, and I look for them to come out very flat and for the Mustangs to put it on them early and keep it close for four quarters.

When you look at the Notre Dame game, there’s no way Temple should have even had a shot to win anyways. It was outgained 295-467 by the superior Fighting Irish, or by 172 total yards. Notre Dame had three trips inside the Temple 14-yard line, which resulted in just three points due to two turnovers and a missed field goal.  That 24-20 game being closer than it really was is actually providing some additional line value here, because the Owls covered when they provably shouldn't have.

More concerning for the Owls is the lumps they took physically. Rhule said his team may be without "a number of starters" against SMU.  Rhule didn't go into specifics about the injuries, but one starter banged up over the weekend was running back Jahad Thomas. Thomas, who leads the AAC with 113.0 rushing yards per game, said he hurt his ribs against Notre Dame.  "That game really took a toll," Rhule said. "It is a really beat up, beat up football team that we have right now. ... But I think we have a lot of good backups that are waiting their turns."

The Owls were also fortunate to beat East Carolina on the road the week before. They trailed 14-10 with just under four minutes to play before scoring 14 straight points. They were outgained by the Pirates by 56 yards in that game. They have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season, so they aren’t as good as their 7-1 record shows.  They have been outgained in three of their four road games by 56 yards by ECU, by 32 yards by lowly Charlotte, and by 261 yards by Cincinnati in a very fluky win.  They only outgained a bad UMass team by 20 yards on the road and beat them 25-23 as similar 13.5-point favorites.

Despite being 1-7, I have no doubt that SMU is a better team than that record indicates. A lot of that can be blamed on the schedule as the Mustangs have had to face three teams that are still unbeaten on the season in Baylor, TCU and Houston. They covered the spread in all three of those games, and only lost to TCU 37-56 on the road as 37-point underdogs in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

The last three weeks, the Mustangs are 0-3 with losses to Houston (28-49), USF (14-38) and Tulsa (31-40), but a closer look at the box scores shows that those games were closer than the finals would indicate. They were only outgained by 58 yards at Houston, they outgained South Florida by 13 yards, and they were only outgained by 13 yards against Tulsa.  Those were some misleading final scores to say the least.

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a great job improving this SMU offense and making it competitive. The Mustangs are putting up 28.7 points and 414.2 yards per game this season. Quarterback Matt Davis can do it all as he’s throwing for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 450 yards and seven scores.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) – good passing team (230-275 PY/G) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/G) after 8+ games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. SMU is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer yards per game.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +15

The Cleveland Cavaliers are just concerned with winning games right now, not by how much they win by.  That's because they are still missing three key players in Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith due to injury.  Asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover the spread against the 76ers tonight is asking too much.

Cleveland needed a 26-17 fourth quarter to put away a bad New York Knicks team 96-86 on Wednesday night.  Four of its first five games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 107-100 win at Philadelphia as 13-point favorites just four nights ago.  That close game against the 76ers was par for the course in this series.

Indeed, the 76ers have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in recent meetings.  All three meetings last year were decided by 13 points or less.  The Cavs have won three of the last four meetings, but they have come only by 7, 1 and 13 points.  The 76ers won 95-92 in one of them as well.

Philadelphia's 100-107 loss to Cleveland was a very good effort, and it came back with perhaps an even better performance in its last game.  The 76ers only lost 87-91 at Milwaukee as 8.5-point underdogs on Wednesday night.  Rookie T.J. McConnell took advantage of his first start at point guards, scoring seven points with 12 assists and nine rebounds.  Rookie Jahlil Okafor has lived up to his No. 2 pick status, averaging 20.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting.  Nerlens Noel has chipped in 13.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1996.   Philadelphia is 91-64 ATS in its last 155 games as an underdog of 10 points or more.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +1

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly-motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight to three very good teams in Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (by 2 on the road).  They are last in the league with just 19.0 points per game in the 1st quarter this year, so expect them to be focused from the start in this one.

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot and are fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  Their three wins have all come by 5 points or less to Orlando, Milwaukee and San Antonio.  Bradley Beal hit a game-winning 3-pointer right before the buzzer to beat the Spurs on Wednesday, and off such a big win the Wizards will come out flat tonight against a Celtics team that wants it more.

The home team won all three meetings between these teams last year.  The Celtics won 101-93 as 3.5-point dogs in their only home meeting.  They also lost a heartbreaking 133-132 (OT) as 9-point underdogs on the road.  The Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, but their record hasn't reflected that yet, which is why they are undervalued here as home dogs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Browns/Bengals NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland +11.5

The Cincinnati Bengals could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread to really make the betting public a killing. The public continues to pour money in on them this week, forcing oddsmakers to over-adjust and set them as 11.5-point favorites. It’s by far the biggest spread of the season for the Bengals, who haven’t been more than 3.5-point favorites in any other game. The clear value in this game with with the Browns.

At the same time, the Browns couldn’t be much more undervalued right now due to going 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at St. Louis (6-24) and at home against Arizona (20-34). But I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they can stay within double-digits of the Bengals, especially with the intensity level a little higher for them in this division rivalry game.

The Browns have beaten Tennessee 28-14 at home and Baltimore 33-30 on the road. Three of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 27-30 loss at San Diego, and a 23-26 (OT) home loss to the unbeaten Broncos. The Browns clearly aren’t as bad as their record would indicate as they’ve simply had poor fortune in close games, going 1-3 in contests decided by a TD or less. They were even ahead 20-10 at halftime against Arizona last week before losing Josh McCown to injury in the second half, which is when they spiraled downhill.

I know Johnny Manziel is expected to start this week, but I’m not that concerned about it. He has actually played pretty well when given a chance this year. Manziel is completing 56 percent of his passes for 393 yards with three touchdowns against one interception for a 93.2 QB rating. McCown had played well with a 95.2 rating, but Manziel can play up to his level. He proved that in the 28-14 win over Tennessee as he threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Cincinnati is nowhere near as good as its 7-0 record would indicate. It has only outgained one opponent by more than 60 yards this year, and that was all the way back in Week 1 against the Raiders. The Bengals have actually been outgained in three of their last four games against the Steelers, Bills, Seahawks and Chiefs. The only exception was when they outgained the Seahawks by 22 yards after erasing a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to come back and win 27-24 (OT).

The Bengals are 9-0-1 in their last 10 games that were decided by a touchdown or less. They have simply been fortunate in close games over the last two years to have the record that they’ve had. They are 4-0 in such games this season. This kind of luck in close games isn’t going to last for long. And I fully expect this one to be close, especially since Cleveland has won three of the last five meetings, including a 24-3 road win last year as 6.5-point dogs.

This is certainly a letdown spot for the Bengals.  They are coming off a huge 16-10 win at Pittsburgh in which the Steelers outgained them by 60 yards but gave the game away with three interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger.  The Bengals 'proved' they were for real with that win, and now have a comfortable 3.5-game lead in the division.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas this week, and for the hungry Browns to take advantage and keep this one close.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses against an opponent off one or more consecutive wins are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, which just shows that anything can happen in this rivalry.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* Thunder/Bulls TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing each of their last two games by five points apiece to Houston and Toronto.  That's why I'm not concerned that they are playing a 4-in-5 situation here, especially this early in the season as teams don't get tired this early.

The Chicago Bulls are a completely different team now under Fred Hoiberg.  They are no longer concerned with being defensive stoppers, which was evident when they allowed 130 points to the Charlotte Hornets of all teams the other night.  They are just 1-4 ATS on the season and overvalued here as favorites against a superior team in the Thunder.

While the Thunder are a dangerous team when they're at full strength like they are right now, the Bulls are dealing with an injury to their best player in Derrick Rose.  The guy can't even see straight, so he's not himself.  Rose is only averaging 10.2 points per game on 33.9% shooting in nearly 31 minutes per game.  Joakim Noah is only playing 19 minutes per game and averaging 2.0 points because he's a misfit now in Hoiberg's system.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there's value in backing these supposed 'tired' teams this early in the year.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -16.5

The Baylor Bears just plug in quarterbacks and keep churning out massive offensive numbers, which is why I'm not concerned about the season-ending injury to Seth Russell.  The bye week came at a great time as freshman Jarrett Stidham has had nearly two weeks to get ready for Kansas State now.

Because the Bears have outscored teams by an average of 36.0 points per game this season, Stidham has seen action in all seven games.  He's gone 24 of 28 for 331 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Stidham came to Baylor in January 2014 as one of the nation's most highly touted recruits.

"Stidham's deal is he's been going all along anyway. In practice, our backups get as many reps as our starters," head coach Art Briles said. "From that standpoint, there was no difference there except he was working with a few different people over the last few practices. I’d be totally shocked if he’s not very composed, very competitive, very intelligent, and very on cue with everything he does Thursday for our football team".

The Bears are the nation's highest-scoring team at 61.1 points per game and they lead the country at 686.1 yards per game.  But what really makes them a national title contender is that they may have the best defense in the Big 12.  They are holding opponents to 25.1 points, 382.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play who average 30.2 points, 429 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  And that's really impressive when you consider a lot of those yards given up have come in garbage time with the game already decided.

While this is probably the best team in the history of Baylor, this is one of the worst Kansas State teams that Bill Snyder has ever had.  The Wildcats have opened 3-4 with their only wins coming against South Dakota, UTSA and Louisiana Tech (in overtime).  They were even outgained by 96 yards at home by Louisiana Tech.

The Wildcats have opened 0-4 in Big 12 play and will fall to 0-5 for the first time ever in conference action.  They did play TCU and Oklahoma State tough, but they were outgained by 158 yards by the Horned Frogs and by 139 yards by the Cowboys.  They were outgained by 458 yards in a 0-55 home loss to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 131 yards in a 9-23 loss at Texas, which was just shut out 24-0 by Iowa State.

“You know a lot of us, myself included, have not really been here before,” Kansas State coach Bill Snyder told reporters of the losing streak. “So, it is a matter of having the answers of how to overcome the complexity and the difficulty of what has taken place.”

I just see no way this Kansas State offense can put up enough points to stay within 16.5 of Baylor.  The Wildcats were held to 110 total yards by Oklahoma and 242 yards by Texas.  QB Joe Hubener is 30-of-78 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  He's not going to start magically lighting up this underrated Baylor defense.

Plays against a home team (KANSAS ST) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 225 or less total yards/game over their last two games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bears are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, including 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Baylor Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.