Winning Sports Picks

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now.  They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards.

They certainly won't let down against Illinois here.  Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now.

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road.  Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season.  That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17.

The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game.  That team is going to be Minnesota.  The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game.  Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game.  The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season.  Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16

The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division.  Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs.  The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs.

The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week.  That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs.  We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs.  They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down.

That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season.  They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17.  They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition.  Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them.

Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season.  They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing.  They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road.  They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now.  

The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS.  This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target.  Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD.

Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia.  The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins.  Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10

Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  

The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.  And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards.  That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point.  Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be.  Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame.  Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well.  This one will go down to the wire.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars.  And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record.

But this is a play against Utah as much as anything.  The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles.  Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week.  That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained.

Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much.  Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards.  Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards.  UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards.  Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play.  Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record.

Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games.  They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon.  This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3

Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today.

Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention.  They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week.  And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either.  After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games.  They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season.

Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.  They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest.  Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury.  Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country.

Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach.  Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year.  They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA.  But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals.  Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.

That is playing out in the early going again this season.  The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason.  The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee.  They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.

I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us.  The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks.  They also beat Memphis at home.  They can hang with the Heat tonight.

Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less.  Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech.  The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats.  They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season.

Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility.  The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field.  He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles.  To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles.  They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards.  That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC.

Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards.  They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang.  They also take a hit defensively with these additions.  But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it.

Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell.  The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1

This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days.  Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory.  The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer.  Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3

Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal.  This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams.  The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week.  They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy.

The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback.  It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week.  They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons.  Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center.

I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh.  However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points.  The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play.

The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record.  The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in.

The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable.  Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game.  They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion.

QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement.  Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury.  The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston.  They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype.

This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more.  The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play.  They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season.  Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well.

The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season.  They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.  And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites.

The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins.

South Alabama is down this season.  They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites.  QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week.  Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game.  He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games.  South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt.  The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3

Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team.  We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock.

Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards.  The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards.  They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games.

But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence.  Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong.  They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center.

TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State.  They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week.  Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good.  He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry.

This TCU defense isn't very good.  They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense.  They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244.

The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship.  They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation.  After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest.  I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.

The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers.  It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night.  But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.

This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything.  The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day.  This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams.

Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight.

These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going.  The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel.  Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward.  The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.

The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency.  They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.

The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in.  That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  This will be their toughest test yet.

Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5

Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27.  That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami.

Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green.  The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game.

Ball State has some really concerning losses of late.  They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern.  They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country.  They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country.  Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country.

The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home.  Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game.  Bet Bowling Green Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season.  But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games.  It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant.  They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.

Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Diamondbacks MLB ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -105

Game 4 is going to be a bullpen game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers.  I'll gladly side with the team with the much better bullpen, which is the Diamondbacks in Game 4.

Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Rangers.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his last postseason start against Houston.  Once he exits, the Rangers will be going to their bullpen, which has a 4.66 ERA on the season.

Joe Mantiply started against the Phillies last series and pitched one shutout inning in a 6-5 win for the Diamondbacks.  Arizona has great arms available at the back of their bullpen to preserve a lead.  They have a 3.71 ERA at home this season.  Bet the Diamondbacks in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo.

Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late.  The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC.

Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season.  They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs.  Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf.  Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night.  Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers.  LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight.

The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year.  The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites.  The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8

This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week.  You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game.  The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season.  Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier.  But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed.  Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense.

Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track.  They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town.  The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season.  They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory.  The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse.

The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week.  They are held to 235 total yards in defeat.  Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week.  This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.

A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment.  The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit.

The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games.  They will get back on track offensively this week.  The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line.  K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more.  The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Lions Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time.  They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.

The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory.  There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter.  They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year.  They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.

The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed.  They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year.  They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks.  The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit.  They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders.  They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love.  Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury.  This is a team I want to fade early in the season.  

Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner.  They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.

The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites.  There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.

The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT.  The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit.  This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes.  There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.

Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season.  The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss.  Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount.  The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener.  They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.  The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.

The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year.  They brought back all five starters.  They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener.  Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out.  They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%.  The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.

The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5.

I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals.  That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week.  So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football.

The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week.  The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play.  New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league.

Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play.  They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers.  But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona.

I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits.  They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle.  They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout.

Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games.  Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt.  They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him.  Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him.  He isn't handling it very well.

Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL.  They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week.  They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now.  The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks.  They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future.

The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst.  The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130

The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games.  I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final.

They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.  The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.

While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite.  I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.  Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  

The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.  I think their luck runs out this week.

The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one.  Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries.  It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play.  Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment.

The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals.  But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week.  Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state.  That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  

They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs.  Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA.  You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.

I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season.  They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites.  Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries.  This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.

The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns.  Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.

Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.

What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week.  Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense.  He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career.  Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz.  Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns.

Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week.  I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back.

I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone.  That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks.  They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable.  They get in the red zone and bog down.  They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%.  The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints.

You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.  They aren't on the same page right now.  You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars.  It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense.  They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara.  

The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season.  The are so predictable.  They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses.  

The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule.  But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans.  They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints.  Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5

UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West.  There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State.  I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here.

Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback.  Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week.  Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here.

Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less.  The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada.  They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV.  QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype.  He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry.

UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time.  This one will be decided by one score either way, too.

Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far.  I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle.  Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in.  The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks.

This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.  Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so.  Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages.  I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here.

Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss.  Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* DBacks/Rangers MLB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 9

The Texas Rangers are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  However, this total has now been inflated due to that streak and due to combining for 11 runs with Arizona in extra innings in Game 1 last night.  Now the true aces of both these teams go tonight and scoring will be suppressed in Game 2.

Jordan Montgomery is 12-11 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 36 starts this season.  Montgomery held Houston to 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two starts against them last series.  He faced the Diamondbacks earlier this season on August 21st and pitched 8 shutout innings in a 4-3 victory.

Merrill Kelly is 14-9 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 33 starts this season.  Kelly has been dominant in his last six starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings for a 2.27 ERA.  This despite facing the Phillies twice, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Giants.  Kelly allowed just one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory in his lone career start against Texas.

Kelly is 12-1 UNDER in his last 13 starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Arizona is 15-3 UNDER following a loss by one run this season.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Montgomery's 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5

James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program.  That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score.  Another win came by 11 points.  Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record.  The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season.  The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs.

Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week.  The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend.

Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison.  The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better.  Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season.  They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season.  Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth.

That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs.  Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night.  Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team.

The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night.  DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night.  Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable.  The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do.  

Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites.  They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.

Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe.  They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe.  This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record.

Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play.  Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th.

Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses.  Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more.

Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week.  

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5

My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.

These are two of the worst defenses in the country.  Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed.  Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game.

I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense.  When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued.

Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss.  The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out.  This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check.

Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total.  This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games.  Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense.

Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58.  Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points.  The books have once again set this total too low.

Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks.  Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans.  But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers.  Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense.  Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much.

After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame.   He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC.  Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt.

While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent.  Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville.  Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards.  The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week.

The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games.  Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest.  He has given this previously dead offense some new life.

Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play.  Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run.  They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19

Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate.  The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland.  They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers.

With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here.  At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year.

Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites.  They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game.  And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers.  They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech.

Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score.  Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4

I love the spot for Louisville this week.  They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye.  You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot.

Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week.  They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt.  It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter.

Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0.  They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title.  The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.

The spot is much worse for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score.  They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles.  QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late.  He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one.

Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites.  The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5

The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less.  It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most.

North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road.  They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout.

That gives these teams a common opponent.  Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards.  And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road.

I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB.  That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards.  But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference.

North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs.  North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss.  North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game.  Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here.

Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win.  North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs.  They returned all five starters.  Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it.

They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns.  The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury.  He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively.  Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders.

Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces.  That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus.  They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner.  They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles.

The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home.  Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th.

The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard.  They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces.  It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Cavaliers OVER 227

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very fast-paced, efficient offense and a ton of chemistry with one of the best young nucleus' in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and returned four starters plus a healthy Chet Holmgren at center.  They are going to be tough to tame, and they beat the Bulls 124-104 in the opener.

The Cavaliers are going to be more of an OVER team this year because they added shooters and will attempt more 3's with a change in philosophy.  They also are without C Jarrett Allen in the early going, who is their defensive stopper.  They take a big hit defensively without him.

The Cavs beat the Nets 114-113 on the road in their opener.  They went 17-of-43 (39.5%) from 3-point range.  They added two great shooters in Max Strus from the Heat and Georges Niang from the 76ers.  These two combined to go 7-of-16 from 3-point range in that contest.  Both aren't very good defenders, so that is going to be an issue for them defensively that they will have to deal with.  They allowed the Nets to shoot 50% from the field and now take a big step up in class here against the Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener.

Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going.  The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively.  They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury.  They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two.  They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him.  The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.

Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated.  They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards.  They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough.  Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for.

Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls.  FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida.  Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA.  The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall.  It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense.  It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Charlotte Friday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight.  They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent.  They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight.

Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night.  The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed.

The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter.  They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season.  The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games.

I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going.  Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.

Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense.  The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field.  Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin.  Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here.

The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week.  They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable.

What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in.  The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away.  The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense.  The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%.

Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace.  The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.  This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year.

Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983.  This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers.  Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers.  Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night.

Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State.  The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats.  That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now.  The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 227.5

JA Morant has to serve a 25-game suspension to start the season.  The Memphis Grizzlies are going to have to rely on defense in the early going to be competitive.  That's why they traded for Marcus Smart, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA who can mask some of the defensive deficiencies of Morant when he returns.  But they gave up great backup Tyus Jones and two first-round picks to get the former Defensive Player of the Year.

The Grizzlies have been a Top 5 defense each of the last two seasons.  They were No. 3 in defensive rating last season despite the injuries and suspensions.  They hang their hat on defense.  Starters Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. are all plus defenders.  Desmond Bane is their only real scorer, but most his points come off the ball spotting up.  Scoring is going to be tough for this team in the early going.

The Pelicans have a great starting 5 of McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, Valanciunas and Jones.  But they will be without key bench players Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall to start the season.  That means the bench will consist of Cody Zeller, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels to start the season.  The Pelicans are going to struggle to score for long stretches when their starters are out.

New Orleans is 41-25 UNDER in its last 66 games as a road underdog, including 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9

A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season.  He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA.  I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result.  They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench.

The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through.  They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics.  But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy.  I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere.  They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season.  They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic.  This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly.

Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite.  The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 234.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt.  These two should gel much better than they did last year when Quin Snyder took over midseason.  Now Snyder has an entire offseason to get things right after a middling 41-41 season a year ago.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when LaMelo Ball is on the court.  He averaged 23.3 points, 8.4 assists and 6.4 rebounds last season but played in just 36 games.  Terry Rozier, PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward can all fill it up as well, plus they used the 2nd pick in the draft on scorer Brandon Miller out of Alabama.  Head coach Steve Clifford said they spent a lot more time on offense than defense the past few weeks.

In four meetings last season, the Hornets and Hawks combined for 282, 240, 235 and 231 points.  They have combined for at least 235 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle, who is a great offensive mind but chooses offense over defense everywhere he has gone.  The Pacers are loaded from an offensive standpoint with Tyrese Haliburton teaming with Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt.  They added Denver 6th man Bruce Brown who will start right away.  They also added Obi Toppin from the Knicks to pair with Myles Turner in the frontcourt.  One of the best shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield comes off the bench.

The Washington Wizards are all offense and no defense.  They added PG Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and SG Jordan Poole from the Wizards, who are both terrible defenders.  They still have Kyle Kuzma, one of the worst defenders in the league but a good scorer.  SF Bilal Coulibaly will start right away and be paired with Daniel Gafford in the frontcourt.  They have shooters who can stretch the floor coming off the bench in Mike Muscala, Danilo Gallinari, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert.  This is going to be a fun team to watch offensively, but probably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA.

The Wizards and Pacers went for 240, 232 and 244 combined points in their final three meetings last season.  It should be more of the same here in the opener as we see one of the highest scoring games of the night.  Carlisle is 50-32 OVER in home games as the coach of Indiana.  The OVER is 34-18 in Pacers last 52 home games with a total of 230 or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS.  They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible.  Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International.

This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days.  They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late.  Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team.

Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves.  The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here.  Bet Florida International Wednesday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Phillies -160

The Philadelphia Phillies just lost at home in the playoffs for the first time all postseason.  I expect them to right the ship and win Game 7 here at home against a rookie starter in Brandon Pfaadt for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 21 starts thsi season.  He has been fortunate to start at home in his last two postseason starts.  But in his lone postseason start on the road, he allowed 3 runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the Brewers.  Pfaadt won't be able to handle the pressure of trying to win a Game 7 on the road.

I trust Ranger Suarez to get the job done here for the Phillies.  He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts this postseason, allowing just one earned run and 9 base runners in 14 innings to the Braves (twice) and Diamondbacks.  Suarez has pitched 12 1/3 shutout innings while allowing just 10 base runners with 14 K's in his last two starts against Arizona this season.

The Phillies are 8-1 in Suarez's nine playoff starts over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-0 in Suarez's last nine home starts vs. a NL team with a .255 batting average or worse in the second half of the season.  Bet the Phillies in Game 7 Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year.  But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver.  The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number.

There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals.  They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat.  I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season.

"If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June.  "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.".  The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

"It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations.  We can't wait to play them."

"I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well."

The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason.  The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster.  I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5

New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight.  They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race.  They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry.  From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country.  He is doing the same from October-on this year.

This New Mexico State defense is also underrated.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference.  I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year.  They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early.

LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games.  The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week.  LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest.

The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team.  LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games.  Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games.  All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score.  Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value.

The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders.  Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game.  The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season.

Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week.  Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense.  McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game.

The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13.  This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat.  They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game.  If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers.

Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season.  He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late.  The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn.  Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.

Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -170

The Phillies are up 3-2 in this series over the Arizona Diamondbacks while outscoring them 27-12 in the process.  Both losses came by a single run, while the three wins came by a combined 17 runs.  The Phillies have only lost three times all postseason with all three losses coming by one run.  All eight wins have come by two runs or more as they are outscoring opponents 5.3 to 2.0 on average.

The Phillies have another big advantage on the mound in Game 6 and I expect them to close out this series.  Aaron Nola is 9-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Nola is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in three postseason starts.  He pitched 6 shutout innings in a 10-0 victory over the Phillies in Game 2.

Merrill Kelly has been at his worst on ther oad this season with a 3.94 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 17 starts away from home.  Kelly is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings in that 10-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 2 opposite Nola.

The Phillies are 38-13 in their last 51 games as home favorites of -150 to -200.  Bet the Phillies in Game 6 Monday.

15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away.  They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night.  They want to destroy this hype train.

Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week.  Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league.  The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do.

The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game.  They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession.  They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here.

That's especially the case when you look at the forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night.  That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage.  That team is Philadelphia.

This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago.  Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing.  Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well.  Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well.  They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets.  They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers.  They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers.  This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses.  They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy.  Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.

Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved.  However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season.  Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well.

The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago.  The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season.  The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.

The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game.  They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago.  The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS.  The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions.  The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well.

Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell.  The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders.  The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions.

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver.  Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans.  Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5

Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5.

The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL.   They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.

The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.  I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games.  In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards.  Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season.

Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league.  They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of.  Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards.  The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week.  That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards.

Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks.  They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games.  After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half.  The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense.

What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury.  They just don't have a replacement for him.  He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season.  Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL.

As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday.  The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage.  Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week.  Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road.  I expect them to make it four in a row here.  

I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game.  Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season.  They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London.  And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final.  The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.

The Ravens should be 6-0 this season.  They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers.  If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL.  They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game.  This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season.

While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back.  They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday.  The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions.

The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much.  Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem.  It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week.

Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog.  Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3.  He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors.  Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay.  They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks.  They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win.  Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents.  It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now.  Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration.  The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half.  They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week.  Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush.

No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL.  But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week.  I like the Colts either way.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington.  They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal.  They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way.

Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out.  There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here.  They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin.

Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye.  This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten.  I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition.

Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye.

Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season.  The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs.  Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington.  Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -124

I'll gladly trust Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies over Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks as short favorites in this pivotal Game 5.  The Phillies won the first two games in this series by a total of 15 runs, while the Diamondbacks won the last two games by a combined two runs.  It's clear the Phillies are the better team in this series even though it's 2-2.

Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in three postseason starts this year, allowing 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings with 26 K's.  Wheeler is 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 12 career starts against Arizona.  He has held the Diamondbacks to 3 runs and 8 base runners in 12 innings with 15 K's in his last two starts against them this season.

Zac Gallen is 19-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 37 starts this season.  Gallen was blasted for 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings opposite Wheeler in his last start.  The Phillies clearly have him figured out, and I expect more of the same here in Game 5.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points.  They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points.  The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee.  The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds.  Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half.  They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters.

UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5

I love the spot for Old Dominion this week.  They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.  They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright.

Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs.  That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season.  The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall.  Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye.

Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season.  The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team.   They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one.

This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin.  The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense.  The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average.  

Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play.  Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1).  Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game.  Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2

Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season.  This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team.

Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright.  The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites.  They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener.  That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more.

Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories.  But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn.  Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio.

It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday.  I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well.  Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog.  Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4

The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense.  They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week.

It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West.  That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  

The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara.  Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin.  They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week.  There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver.  The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa.

The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him.  Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less.  Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards.  The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards.  Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too.  But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46

This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses.  There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow.

Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country.  Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play.  This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country.  Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious.

With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games.  They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game.  They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well.

But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play.  I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one.  They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in.

As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry.  Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays.  Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays.

Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season.  Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times.  The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley.  The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7

I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season.  But here we are.  I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football.  And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State.

Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers.  The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.

Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road.  Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play.  These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate.

Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game.  It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards.  

Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won.  They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD.  Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14.  It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat.

There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground.  That benefits Kent State.  Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday.  There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30.  That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket.

Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week.  That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season.  Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt.

Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show.  The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points.

Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages.  Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week.

Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5

In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown.  I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season.  It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown.

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.  They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU.

SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs.  Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home.  ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb.

This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season.  They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well.  Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Rangers UNDER 9

Aces Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery square off in a rematch from Game 1 that resulted in a pitcher's duel and a 2-0 victory in favor of the Rangers.  It should be more of the same tonight with scoring suppressed after each of the last three games when over the total.

Verlander is 14-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in his last three starts.  Verlander is 22-10 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 38 career starts against Texas.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in two starts against the Rangers this season.

Jordan Montgomery is 12-10 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 35 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three postseason starts.  Montgomery is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in seven career starts against Houston.  He has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings in two starts against the Astros this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts.  This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week.  They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play.  Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles.  They easily should have won that game.

The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts.

Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping.  He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes.  The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell.

The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye.  And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report.  This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here.

The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play.  They are much healthier than the Jaguars.  Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses.  The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57

Rice is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs.  The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense.  The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds.

Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense.  He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.

Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games.  They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points.  The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple.

Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane.  He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores.  He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt.

Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well.  The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt.  Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses.

Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall.  Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game.  Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -116

The Phillies are 8-1 in the postseason with all eight wins coming by two runs or more.  They should be 9-0 at they blew a 4-0 lead to the Braves.  They have outscored the Phillies 18-3 in two games this series, and it should be more of the same in Game 3 with their big advantage on the mound.

Ranger Suarez has been at his best on the road this season with a 2.58 ERA in 11 road starts.  Suarez has been dominant in the postseason with a 1.04 ERA in two starts against the Braves, allowing just one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  The Phillies won both of his starts against Spencer Strider.

Suarez fired 7 shutout innings in his last start at Arizona on June 14th.  He'll be opposed by rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who is 3-9 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Pfaadt has allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 7 innings in two postseason starts thus far.

The Phillies are a perfect 8-0 in Suarez's eight playoff starts over the last two seasons.  They improve to 9-0 with another win in Game 3 today.  Bet the Phillies Thursday.

20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3

New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team.  The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here.

Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State.  He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns.

UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play.  He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters.  

That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State.  This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season.  The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense.  They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country.  Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach.  UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games.  Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies.  Bet New Mexico State Wednesday.

15* Astros/Rangers ALCS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +117

It's now or never for the Houston Astros.  They have actually played their best baseball this season on the road, going 53-30 (+21.4 Units) in 83 road games and scoring 5.7 runs per game.  We are getting great value here on the Astros as road underdogs in Game 3 with their backs against the wall.  They have been here before, while the Rangers have not.

Bruce Bochy is a legendary managed for what he did in San Francisco and what he's doing for Texas.  But I think he's making a mistake here starting Max Scherzer, who hasn't pitched since September 12th.  He is going to be rusty and going to be on a pitch count.  Scherzer allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 innings to the Astros in his last start against them on September 6th.  The Astros will get into Texas' terrible bullpen early in this one.

Cristian Javier has come up clutch here down the stretch.  He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts, pitching 11 shutout innings with 13 K's.  Javier has had great success against Texas in his career, going 4-1 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Rangers.

The Astros are 10-1 (+10.5 Units) in Javier's 11 starts as an underdog this season.  The Astros are 8-0 in Javier's eight starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Houston is 9-0 in road games when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Bet the Astros in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Diamondbacks/Phillies NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.2 runs per game at home this season while the Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road.  The Phillies are scoring 5.1 runs per game in the playoffs while the Diamondbacks are scoring 5.5 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too low tonight.

Aaron Nola is 14-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 34 starts this season with 32 homers allowed.  Nola is 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.

Merrill Kelly has huge home/road splits in his career and this season.  Kelly has a 3.17 ERA and 1.125 WHIP with an 8.8 K/9 at home compared to a 4.48 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road with 7.5 K/9 in his career.  Kelly has a 3.79 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 16 road starts this season.

Nola is 9-1 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The OVER is 21-11-2 in Nola's 34 starts this season.  The OVER is 14-4 in Nola's last 18 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

I was on the 49ers -3.5 over the Cowboys last week and I'm fading the Cowboys again this week.  Their stats coming into that 49ers game were fraudulent because they were living on defensive touchdowns and turnovers, masking the poor performance of their offense in the red zone.  That's a tough way to live.

The Cowboys were exposed in their 42-10 loss at San Francisco.  They also got banged up on defense in that game, losing LB Leighton Vander Esch and CB C.J. Goodwin to injury.  That's bad news for a Cowboys team that just isn't as good defensively without CB Trevon Diggs.

The 49ers have a way of making teams play poorly the following week.  They play a physical brand of football, and it's mentally taxing on opponents trying to prepare for them as well.  One of the best hidden stats about the 49ers is that teams are now 2-19 SU & 4-15-2 ATS the game after facing them since the start of last year.  And now the Cowboys are being asked to go on the road as favorites when they are clearly beat up this week.

Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they'll be facing a rested Chargers team coming off their bye week.  The Chargers are also getting healthy coming into this one with Austin Ekeler making his return to the lineup, plus there's a good chance they get both S Derwin James and LB Joey Bosa back defensively.  The Chargers are now one of the healthiest teams in the league, while the Cowboys are as banged up as they have been all season.

The Chargers will be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense that allowed 421 total yards to the 49ers last week.  They have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and their run game is much better with Ekeler in the fold.  Conversely, I think the Chargers are in line for another good defensive performance after holding the Raiders to 17 points and 264 total yards last time out while forcing three turnovers.  Khalil Mack had six sacks in the win.  The Chargers have elite talent on defense and massive potential when healthy like they are right now.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Phillies UNDER 7.5

There could be a little rust factor for both offenses with Arizona having four days off in between games and Philadelphia having three days off.  Colder October weather will also help us cash this UNDER 7.5 ticket with temps in the low 50's tonight in Philadelphia.

Ace Zack Wheeler is 14-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 34 starts this season for the Phillies.  Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

Ace Zac Gallen is 19-9 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 36 starts this season for the Diamondbacks.  Gallen is also 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team.  They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles.  Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket.

The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively.  They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week.  Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game.  Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points.  It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five.  Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch.  Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference.  Points will be plentiful in this one.

Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Jets have turned a corner taking Kansas City to the wire in a 23-20 loss, and dominating the Broncos in a 31-21 road victory last week.  This isn't that far off from the Kansas City spread as the Jets closed as 8-point home dogs.  Now they are 7-point home dogs to the Eagles, and many would have Kansas City power-rated one point better than the Eagles at this point.

The Eagles haven't faced very many good defenses this season.  Three have been the Rams, Commanders and Vikings, three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Against the two best defenses they faced they had 25 points on the Patriots but basically 14 came off turnovers.  They had 25 points against the Bucs as well.

I think the Jets can hold the Eagles to 24 or less in this one, meaning they'd only need 17 to push or cover.  They held the Bills to 16 and the Chiefs to 23 and actually outscored those two teams in the two games combined, so they have proven they can play with anyone.  The weather could be pretty rough for this one and turn it into an even lower scoring game, meaning each point is worth more.  There is a 50% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds expected.

The Jets won't mind uglying it up and running the football now that they have a fully healthy Breece Hall.  He has averaged 7.2 yards per carry this season and 7.4 yards per reception.  He is an absolute weapon for this team right now.  Zach Wilson has played his two best games of the season last last two weeks and is gaining confidence, and so is the team in him.

This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they have to fly back from Los Angeles after beating the Rams last week.  They will now be on the road for a second consecutive week and haven't been home for two weeks in a row yet.  They also have a huge game against Miami on deck, so they could be looking forward to that game.  The Eagles just haven't been that dominant this season with four of their five wins coming by single-digits.  But you're paying a tax to back them now due to their 5-0 record.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up here and lose this game outright.  The Jets have just one loss by more than 5 points this season.

S Justin Evans, CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter all did not practice on Thursday for the Eagles and are questionable to play in this one.  The Jets got good injury news with Sauce Gardner expected to play and a couple offensive linemen returning to practice on a limited bases Thursday.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play.  Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER.  They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week.  They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best.

Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards.  I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system.  Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season.

Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces.  The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5

I've backed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a premium pick each of the last two weeks in London with success.  They won and covered as 3-point favorites in a 16-point win over Jacksonville.  They won and covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 25-20 win over Buffalo.  Jacksonville had the advantage of being familiar with the surroundings in London and becoming the first team to stay over there for two consecutive games.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

Jacksonville returns home and will be dealing with all the distractions that come with returning home from a long road trip.  Home field hasn't been too kind to the Jaguars this season.  They lost 17-9 to the Chiefs as 3-point dogs.  They were blasted 37-17 by the Texans as 7.5-point favorites.

Now they must play an improving Indianapolis Colts team that will be highly motivated for revenge from a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars in the opener.  That was a 10-point loss, but they did lead the Jaguars going into the 4th quarter.  They also failed to score from the 1-yard line in the final seconds, turning a 3-point loss to a 10-point loss.

That was the first game for head coach Shane Steichen.  The Colts have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since with their lone loss coming in overtime to the Rams.  That was the only game in which Anthony Richardson started and finished.  I think Gardner Minshew is an upgrade over Richardson.  

He came in for an injured Richardson to lead a 31-20 win at Houston.  Last week, Minshew came in for an injured Richardson and led the Colts to a 23-16 home win over Tennessee.  And in the only game Minshew had a full week to prepare, if you'll remember I was on the Colts +8 over the Ravens.  They won that game outright 22-19 in overtime.

Minshew is the real deal, and Steichen has no problem adjusting the offense to fit his skill set.  He is completing 68.7% of his passes compared to just 59.5% for Richardson.  Minshew has yet to turn the ball over, either, which is huge.  This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Minshew as he made his name with the Jaguars, and will be extra motivated to beat his former team.

The Jaguars put up gaudy offensive numbers against the Bills last week, but keep in mind the Bills were already injury-ravaged on defense coming into the game, and then lost several players early in that one including Milano and Jones.  This Colts defense will offer up much more resistance.  They have allowed 23 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four games.  WR Zay Jones, LT Cam Robinson and LG Walker Little are all banged up right now and questionable to play Sunday.  Jones and Walker did not practice Thursday and are doubtful.

The Colts have quietly rushed for at least 126 yards in four consecutive games.  They just rushed for 193 yards last week on a Tennessee Titans team that had previously been great against the run.  Zack Moss has been a revelation, and Jonathan Taylor just returned from injured reserve last week.  This is quietly one of the best two-headed monsters are running back in the NFL moving forward, which will take a ton of pressure off Minshew.  The didn't have either Moss or Taylor in the season-opening loss to the Jaguars.

I just love taking these teams out for revenge in the 2nd meeting after losing the first, especially when they are on the road as underdogs in the rematch.  I also love fading teams coming back from London.  Most teams take a bye week coming back from London, but not the Jaguars.  The last 11 teams not to take a bye week after London were either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter, including the Falcons last week in their 2-point win over the Texans.  There is a hangover effect and jet lag these teams have to deal with.  I fully expect Indianapolis to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* Ravens/Titans NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -4

John Harbaugh decided to have his team fly out on Sunday night to London.  He's had this game circled because the last time they went to London they got blown out.  They are taking this game very seriously, especially coming off a blown 10-0 lead to the Steelers and losing 17-10.

The Ravens dominated that game against the Steelers but had 7-8 drops and committed three turnovers.  If the Ravens had won that game in a blowout like they should have, this line would be higher than Baltimore -4.  I think the Ravens are primed for a big effort here.

The Ravens will have their entire offensive line intact since Week 1.  They have also several key players back on defense from injury now.  They are the healthiest they have been at any point this season, so that's another reason we should get the best version of the Ravens.

The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the road this season losing at New Orleans, losing 27-3 at Cleveland and falling 23-16 at Baltimore.  What had previously been a stout Tennessee run defense was shredded for 193 rushing yards by the Colts last week.  The biggest reason was not having DT Teair Tart in the middle last week as he was out with a toe injury.  He hasn't practiced this week and is doubtful.  

Tart is one of the most underrated defensive players in the entire league.  The Titans also won't have WR Treylon Burks or LB Luke Gifford for this one, plus DT Jeffery Simmons, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, S Amani Hooker and DL Denico Autry have all been limited in practice and are questionable.  The Titans are in the worst position they've been in health-wise heading into this game.

The Bills didn't arrive in London until Friday last week and were flat as a pancake against the Jaguars.  Well, the Titans took the same approach and didn't arrive in London until Friday this week.  That screams jet lag, and it's not enough time to acclimate to the time change.  Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business, but he's making a mistake not getting his team acclimated in time for this game at 9:30 AM EST.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play and only allowing 4.1 yards per play on defense.  The Titans are getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Ravens are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season here.  Remember, they scored 28 points against the Browns two weeks ago, who have  one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following an upset loss to a division opponent.  Baltimore is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Harbaugh is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +10

Trent Dilfer is quietly doing a great job at UAB.  The Blazers have faced a brutal schedule and are 2-4 this season despite being underdogs in four of six games.  They beat North Carolina A&T to open the season 35-6, were competitive in a 35-49 loss at Georgia Southern, and lost by 20 at home to Louisiana as 2-point favorites in their first three games to open the season.  Those latter two teams are among the favorites to win the Sun Belt.

UAB is 3-0 ATS since with three straight impressive performances.  The Blazers only lost by 28 at Georgia as 40-point dogs, lost by 12 at Tulane as 21.5-point dogs, and crushed South Florida by 21 as 3.5-point dogs.  The offense is clicking with 346 total yards on Georgia, 434 total yards on Tulane and 608 total yards on South Florida.

UTSA is getting too much respect for what they have done in the past.  The Roadrunners are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season as a result.  They lost at Houston, only beat Texas State by 7 as 14-point home favorites, were upset by Army by 8 as 7-point home favorites and were blasted by 31 at Tennessee as 24-point dogs.  Even their lone cover last week wasn't impressive as they beat Temple 49-34 as 14-point favorites.  That's an awful Temple team that previously lost by 22 to Tulsa, by 34 to Miami, by 29 to Rutgers and barely beat lowly Akron by 3.

UAB has passed for at least 250 yards in every game this season.  Well, UTSA just gave up 472 passing yards to Temple last week.  UAB is never going to be out of this game due to a quick-strike offense that is averaging 31.8 points pe game, 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  UTSA is averaging 25.2 points per game, 393 yards per game and 5.4 per play to compare against a softer schedule.  UTSA does have the better defense, but it doesn't warrant them being double-digit favorites.

UTSA has won the conference in consecutive seasons and a big reason why was beating UAB in a pair of close games.  They won 34-31 in 2021 as 3.5-point favorites and 44-38 (OT) in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.  You know the Blazers want revenge from those two losses, especially last year.  UAB is still 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings not once losing by more than 6 points.  Given the head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Blazers in this one.

UTSA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit road win.  The Roadrunners are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a two-game road trip.  UTSA is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The weather forecast is going to favor Notre Dame quite a bit in this game.  Temps will be in the 40's with a 90% chance of rain and 21 MPH crosswinds at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night.  That's not ideal for a fair weather team like USC coming over from California and not used to the conditions.  There's been videos of coaches spraying players with water trying to catch footballs to try and acclimate to it.

Notre Dame is the more physical team with the better running game and run defense.  The Fighting Irish average 171 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry on offense and allow 133 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on defense.  USC averages 168 rushing yards per game on offense and allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry on defense.

Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, while USC has played one of the easiest.  Notre Dame has faced Ohio State, Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks.  I think they ran out of gas against Louisville in their upset loss, but knowing they have a bye on deck and having their biggest rivals coming to town will allow them to play with max effort this week.

USC has played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona.  The Trojans have struggled the last three weeks beating Arizona State by 14 as 34.5-point favorites, Colorado by 7 as 22.5-point favorites and Arizona by 2 in OT as 21.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by a combined 55.5 points the last three weeks.  I question how much they have left in the tank after needing OT to beat Arizona.

USC was outgained by Colorado and gave up 564 total yards to the Buffaloes.  USC was outgained by 141 yards by Arizona and gave up 506 total yards to the Wildcats.  After escaping with wins against both those mediocre Pac-12 teams, the Trojans' luck runs out this week.  They gave up 203 rushing yards to Arizona and 193 rushing yards to Colorado, two teams that had previously struggle to run the football.  They also gave up 198 rushing yards to San Jose State and 209 rushing yards to Stanford.  Notre Dame is going to have a monster game on the ground against this soft USC defense.

I think this is a good 'buy low' spot on Notre Dame after giving the game away last week against Louisville by committing five turnovers.  It was an aberration as the Fighting Irish had only committed two turnovers total in the six games prior.  Sam Hartman was prone to big turnover games from time to time at Wake Forest, and he got his out of the way on the road at Louisville.  Hartman and company will be highly motivated to make amends here at home against USC.

USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following two consecutive wins as favorites where they failed to cover the spread.  Lincoln Riley is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games as a head coach.  Since 2015, there have been 14 teams at 6-0 or better listed as underdogs to a two-loss team.  11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah.

This is a big step up in class for the Trojans this week and a test I expect them to fail given the strength of schedule discrepancy and the forecast.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Missouri/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR Kentucky -2.5

Both Missouri and Kentucky are 5-1 this season and have been impressive.  However, I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on Kentucky after getting embarrassed by Georgia 51-13 on the road last week.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri after they should have had four consecutive covers, but blew it late against LSU last week.

Missouri led LSU 39-35 with less than three minutes left.  They gave up a touchdown and then an interception return TD in the final seconds to lose 49-39.  I think the Tigers will be deflated having their perfect season come to an end in that kind of fashion.  They are also a tired team after playing in that shootout, and now must travel on the road to a tough place to play in Kentucky.

The forecast is going to help Kentucky in this one.  There is a 62% chance of rain with 19 MPH winds projected Saturday.  Kentucky is the better running team and the better team at stopping the run, while Missouri relies more on moving the football through the air to score points.  Missouri only averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense and allows 3.4 per carry on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 per carry on the ground.  Kentucky averages 5.8 yards per carry and allows 3.1 per carry, outgaining opponents by 2.7 per carry.  That's a huge discrepancy.

Missouri has only played one true road game this season and that came at Vanderbilt, which is 0-7 ATS this season and has zero home-field advantage.  This will be their stiffest road test of the season by far.  Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Missouri.  Kentucky is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Missouri overall.  The Wildcats' dominance of the Tigers continues in 2023.  

Plays on home favorites (Kentucky) - after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last three games, a top-level team winning more than 80% of their games when playing against a team with a winning record are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +11.5

The LSU Tigers cannot possibly have much left in the tank.  They will be playing for their 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet, especially of late.  Three weeks ago they beat Arkansas 34-31, two weeks ago they lost at Ole Miss 55-49 and last week they needed a last-second comeback to beat Missouri 49-39 on the road only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds in what was a misleading score.

I expect LSU to be flat as a pancake hosting Auburn this week.  Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a bye week after giving two-time defending national champion Georgia all they could handle two weeks ago, losing 27-20 as 14-point home dogs.  First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is one of the most profitable head coaches to back in the entire country.  Teams benefit the most from bye weeks with first-year head coaches due to the new schemes, and Auburn will have a tremendous game plan for LSU this week.

The game plan should be to run the football on this soft, tired LSU defense.  Auburn rushed for 219 yards on Georgia two weeks ago which is no small feat.  They rush for 204 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  LSU allows 163 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season, which is absolutely horrible for a team that recruits as well as LSU.  Auburn also has an underrated defense that is holding opponents 11.4 points per game below their season averages.  They allow 18.2 points per game, 323 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  LSU allows 32.3 points per game, 446 yards per game and 6.7 per play.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last six meetings with LSU, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  LSU hasn't beaten Auburn by more than 4 points in any of those seven meetings.  Given the terrible spot for the home team and the big rest advantage for the road team, there's no way LSU should be laying double-digits here.  Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +7.5

Louisville is in a terrible spot Saturday.  They are coming off the big 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as 6.5-point underdogs last week to remain unbeaten.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals as they will be flat as a pancake this week following one of the biggest wins in program history.

This is the classic Pat Narduzzi spot.  He has a reeling Pitt team that has gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and I trust Narduzzi to come up with the proper game plan to possibly pull off this upset.  It's circle the wagons time, and I'm expecting the biggest effort of the season from Pitt this week with Louisville coming to town.

Unfortunately for Narduzzi, he got burned in the transfer portal trusting Phil Jurkovec to be a capable QB.  He has been hugely disappointing just as he was at Boston College prior.  He is completing just 50.9% of his passes on the season.  The Panthers are going with a new quarterback this week, and he'll have the benefit of two weeks of practice preparing to be the starter.  It cannot possibly go worse than it has with Jurkovec thus far.

This is a night game at Pitt at 6:30 EST Saturday night so the atmosphere will be electric.  The forecast is also going to help the underdog with a 96% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds.  Louisville's passing game would have the advantage in perfect conditions, but this game is likely to be played more on the ground because of the forecast.  That will shorten the game and help the underdog.  Pitt only allows 130 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.

Narduzzi is 16-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game as the coach of Pitt.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points ( Pitt) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS overt he last 10 seasons.  

Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better three times in the regular season, and twice the Panthers won outright.  They won 43-42 as 21-point dogs over Clemson when they were 5-4 and Clemson was 9-0 in 2016.  They won 24-14 as 12-point dogs over 10-0 Miami when they were 4-7 in 2017.  And in 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame in a 19-14 loss as 21-point dogs.

Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame.  Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites.  15 of the 49 lost outright, and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover the spread since 2011.  I would not be surprised at all so see the Panthers pull off the upset here coming off the bye and with the Cardinals in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -10

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards.  His luck ran out against Penn State in a 31-0 road loss for their lone defeat, and it will run out on the road against similar caliber Wisconsin team again this week.

Iowa is only averaging 250 yards pre game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season.  Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.  Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB.  Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Wisconsin has its best offense in years this season with some great balance averaging 205 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry and 210 passing yards per game.  The Badgers are averaging 31.4 points per game against teams that only allow 24.4 points per game.  They have yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages.  They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well.

Iowa only averages 121 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry while allowing 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The Hawkeyes just aren't as strong at the line of scrimmage as they have been in the past, and that's going to be a problem here.  Conditions are going to be terrible with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH winds.  This game will be won at the line of scrimmage, and I'll side with Badgers as a result.  I think they can get 20-plus points in this one, and I would be shocked if Iowa's putrid offense got to 10.  Wisconsin held Iowa to 146 total yards last year and 156 total yards in 2021.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington ABC No-Brainer on Washington ML -137

I like both of these teams a ton and think both are national title contenders.  But Washington gets the good fortune of getting this game at home, and the Huskies have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere like nothing Oregon has seen before.

Oregon has played two true road games this season and one was at Stanford, which doesn't count.  The other was a 38-30 win at Texas Tech and a misleading final.  They trailed 27-18 going into the 4th quarter.  They also got a 45-yard INT return TD with 35 seconds left as Texas Tech was trying to get in range for the game-winning field goal.  The Ducks were +4 in turnovers in that game as well.  That's a Texas Tech team that has been far from impressive with losses to Wyoming and West Virginia this season.

Washington could not have been more impressive in its three home games this season.  The Huskies won 56-19 as 14.5-point favorites against Boise State, 43-10 as 34-point favorites against Tulsa and 59-32 as 20-point favorites against California.  They also won 41-7 at Michigan State and 31-24 at Arizona while outgaining the Wildcats by 132 yards.  That's a pesky Arizona team that also took USC to OT last week.

Oregon has faced a much softer schedule than Washington, and that strength of schedule discrepancy matters a lot.  Oregon wants to run the football, and Washington is great at stopping the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Bo Nix is going to have to try and win this game with his arm, and he has huge home/road splits in his career.  

I'll gladly side with Michael Penix Jr. over Nix in this one.  Penix is the Heisman Trophy favorite right now leading a Washington offense that averages 46.0 points per game, 570 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes for 1,999 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the Huskies to a 37-34 upset win at Oregon last year while throwing for 408 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this Ducks defense.

Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  Plays on home teams (Washington) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in three consecutive games, in a game between two teams with eight or more defensive starters back are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1992.  

Plays on home favorites on the money line (Washington) - following a win in a game involving two top-level teams that win greater than 80% of their games on the season are 53-6 (89.8%, +41.7 Units) over the last five seasons.  

In the last 19 meetings between Oregon and Washington, the favorite is 16-3 SU & 16-3 ATS.  The favorite is also 18-4 SU & 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Ducks are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  They were 6-point dogs on average and lost by an average of 24.8 points per game in these five games.  Bet Washington on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +42.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Penn State after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in five games to start the season.  Penn State needed to punch in late scores against West Virginia and Northwestern when they could have taken knees to cover those two spreads.  And they had no business covering at Illinois in a 30-13 win as 14-point favorites but won the turnover battle 5-0.  A 17-point win being +5 in turnovers is not impressive at all.

Penn State isn't going to care about covering against UMass.  The Nittany Lions have their biggest game of the season on deck at Ohio State and will be looking ahead to that game.  I expect them to pull starters in the second half, and I don't think they'll be covering at any point against UMass in this one.

UMass actually has very good numbers for a team that is 1-6 this season, so it's time to 'buy low' on the Minutemen.  They are only getting outgained by 56 yards per game on the season.  Their offense has been able to move the football with 26.1 points per game, 397 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I think they can punch in a score or two to cover this inflated number against a Penn State in an awful spot looking ahead to Ohio State.  

The forecast is also going to help us cash this UNDER.  There is a 96% chance of rain with temps in the 40's Saturday at Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are going to have a hard time getting explosive plays in the rain, and they lack explosive plays all season.  They play a methodical style offense focused on the ground game and short passes.  I won't be surprised if they don't even reach 42 points today.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Troy -4.5

Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS and should have covered in all three games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Eagles 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites last week and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.

This Troy offense remains elite, and this Troy defense is getting back to playing like it did a year ago.  The Trojans have been real stout against the run, which is the key matchup here against Army's triple-option.  Troy only allows 88 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Army averages 201 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  

That's actually pretty disappointing for Army considering their opponents average giving up 5.0 per carry, so they are not running it with nearly as much success as they have in year's past.  A big reason is because they are trying to pass the ball more this season, and while they have had more success it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column.  

Army is just 2-3 this season beating Delaware State and a UTSA team that was playing with a backup QB.  They lost 17-13 to LA-Monroe, which looks real bad after LA-Monroe lost 55-7 to South Alabama last week, a team of Troy's caliber.  They lost 29-16 at Syracuse which was just blasted 40-7 by North Carolina.  And last week they lost 27-24 at home to Boston College which was blasted 56-28 by Louisville.  They also lost in the final seconds giving up a TD to BC, and I could see a hangover effect from that defeat.

Troy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Bowling Green +4.5

Buffalo is one of the worst teams in college football and could easily be 0-6.  The Bulls opened 0-4 with a 21-point loss at Wisconsin, an upset loss to Fordham as 22.5-point favorites, a blowout home loss to Liberty by 28 as 3-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Louisiana as 10.5-point dogs.  They were down 21 to Louisiana with five minutes left but tacked on two meaningless touchdowns in a misleading final.

Buffalo then never led until OT against Akron in a 13-10 win only after Akron's starting QB got hurt.  And last week's 37-13 home win over Central Michigan was very misleading.  They were outgained by Central Michigan but were +4 in turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls now after that misleading 'blowout' win.

Bowling Green is also 2-4 this season but has been much more impressive.  They only lost by 10 at Liberty despite being -4 in turnovers, giving these teams a common opponent.  Buffalo lost by 28 to Liberty and was dominated in the box score, too.  Bowling Green only lost by 25 to Michigan as 41-point dogs.  The Falcons upset Georgia Tech 38-27 as 21-point road dogs two weeks ago before naturally having a letdown in a 27-0 loss at Miami Ohio last week.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

Bowling Green has played a much tougher schedule than Buffalo this season.  That's significant because Bowling Green is only getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play, while Buffalo is getting outgained by 1.8 yards per play this season.  Bowling Green is the better team and should not be underdogs here.

Bowling Green is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +33.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Michigan following consecutive blowout road wins at Nebraska 45-7 and at Minnesota 52-10.  The Wolverines have been much less dominant at home, going 0-3-1 ATS in their four home games not winning any of them by more than 28 points against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana off a blowout 44-17 road loss at Maryland.  The Hoosiers had a bye last week coming off that defeat to regroup, and I expect a much better effort from them this week.  Keep in mind Indiana only lost by 7 on a neutral to Louisville and by 20 at home to Ohio State earlier this season.  Both Louisville and Ohio State are unbeaten to this point.

The forecast is going to help us cash the big underdog Hoosiers here.  There is a 90% chance of rain with 20 MPH winds expected in Michigan Saturday.  The Wolverines aren't going to be able to score enough points with that forecast to cover this inflated number.  They may not even score 34 or 35, which is what it's going to take to cover.

Michigan ranks 132nd out of 133 teams in tempo.  They average 31.8 seconds in between snaps.  Shortening the game for us also helps the underdog.  Indiana ranks 108th in pace at 28.4 seconds in between snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which again favors the big underdog.

Michigan hasn't been able to beat Indiana by this kind of margin in any of the last 16 meetings.  In fact, each of the last 16 meetings were decided by 31 points or less, including 15 by 25 points or fewer.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 33.5-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Stanford/Colorado ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +12

The Colorado Buffaloes are running on fumes.  They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week here with this being a Friday night game.  They have been through the gauntlet of TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon, USC and Arizona State thus far.  They are coming off a 3-point win over ASU on the road last week that followed up a 7-point loss at USC with both games going to the wire and both needing max effort for 60 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for Stanford tonight.

Meanwhile, Stanford gets a massive scheduling advantage here coming off a bye week following their home loss to Oregon.  Stanford has a first-year head coach, so bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches.  The Cardinal needed the bye because they went through the gauntlet as well with Hawaii, USC, Oregon and Arizona on the schedule thus far.  They nearly upset Arizona in a 1-point loss and beat Hawaii handily on the road while getting blown out by the other two teams as expected.

Colorado will remain without its best player in Travis Hunter for this game as they want to give him the extra time to rest especially with a bye on deck.  I don't think this Colorado defense can be trusted to lay this kind of number.  We saw that with Colorado State as they needed a last-second score just to force OT to win as 23-point home favorites a few weeks ago.  That's the same Colorado State team that just got blasted 44-24 by Utah State and outgained by over 300 yards.  Colorado allows 34.2 points per game, 466 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, so Stanford is never going to be out of this game.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points.  The Buffaloes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two consecutive games.  Plays on road underdogs (Stanford) - off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against a team that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This situational rest advantage for the Cardinal is not being factored into this line enough.  Bet Stanford Friday.

20* Fresno State/Utah State MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +6.5

Utah State is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football despite being just 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS this season.  Preseason expectations were very low on this team, but they have been very impressive, especially of late.

Utah State only lost 24-14 at Iowa as 24-point dogs in the opener and actually outgained the Hawkeyes.  They then beat Idah State 78-28 before losing on the road at Air Force by 18.  They only lost by 7 to James Madison at home in a coin flip game.  They have since gone on the road and won 34-33 at Connecticut, and last week was their most impressive performance yet beating Colorado State 44-24 as 3-point home dogs when all the money came against them.

They racked up 639 total yards on a very good Colorado State defense while holding a high-powered Rams offense to 320 total yards, outgaining them by 319 yards for the game.  Now they get to stay at home and host Fresno State in what is a huge game for them if they want to be Mountain West title contenders.  The Bulldogs are the defending conference champs, so Utah State will give an 'A' effort in this one.

Fresno State got off to a fraudulent 5-0 start against a very easy schedule that included home games against Eastern Washington, Kent State and Nevada.  But the Bulldogs finally met their match last week, losing 19-24 at Wyoming as 5-point favorites.  They now have to play in altitude for a 2nd straight week and are on a short week with this being a Friday game.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Fresno State here is because star QB Mikey Keene was was knocked out of that Wyoming loss late with injuries to both of his legs.  He remains questionable to play this week, and it's a long shot on a short week.  Backup Logan Fife isn't nearly as good.  Keene is a UCF transfer who played great for them last year and has carried over that play to Fresno State, completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2023.  It would be a massive blow if he cannot go, but I love Utah State either way here.

Despite facing the much tougher schedule, Utah State has numbers that match those of Fresno State thus far.  Utah State averages 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 yards per play on defense outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  Fresno State averages 5.7 per play on offense and allows 4.5 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well.  Again, the Bulldogs have faced the much easier schedule.

Utah State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.