Winning Sports Picks

20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14

The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season.  They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week.  And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.

San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs.  They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes.  They blew a 28-10 lead.

They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back.  UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too.  But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team.  They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.

San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback.  He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over.  Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt.  He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.  

The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year.  They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game.  They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.

The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground.  The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game.  They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game.  Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.

New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits.  I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one.  San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite.  The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.

San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall.  New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 231

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in five consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York, 248 points with Boston and 241 points with Washington in their last five games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon it.  The OVER is now 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in eight of those 11 games.  This total of 231 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige in an up-tempo affair.  JA Morant will enjoy going toe-to-toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been one of the best players in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies aren't playing much defense this season as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency.  

These teams combined for 243 points in their most recent meeting.  They have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six.  The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Rockets OVER 236

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle.  They have combined for 251 points with the Pelicans, 241 points with the Nuggets and 238 points with the Hornets in going OVER the total in three of their last four games overall.  The lone exception was the 118-104 win over a Toronto team that was missing several starters and was handicapped on offense because of it.

Houston is also a dead nuts OVER team and will gladly get into a shootout with the Pacers.  Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 27th.  Indiana ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while Houston ranks 9th in pace.  So we have two of the fastest-tempo teams going up against two teams that don't play defense.

Indiana beat Houston 121-118 in their final meeting last season for 239 combined points.  The OVER is 14-6 in Pacers last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 21-7-1 in Pacers last 29 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 7-2 in Rockets last nine home games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4

Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game.  Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.

Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Wrong team favored here.  Take Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

This is a rebuilding year for Belmont.  They lost four starters and brought back just one double-digit scorer.  The Bruins are lucky they aren't 0-3 SU.  They beat Ohio 70-69 as 6-point home favorites, lost 74-89 at Furman as 9-point dogs and were upset 75-77 at Lipscomb as 3-point favorites.  They have no business being 5-point favorites over Tarleton on a neutral here given those ugly results thus far.

The Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Belmont is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

20* Michigan/Arizona State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -7

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 91-60 win as 8.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh yesterday at the Barclays Center.  They got to rest their starters late and also played the early game, so they will be the fresher team here against Arizona State.

Arizona State needed a second half comeback to beat VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point underdogs.  That win will have taken a lot out of them.  That was a VCU team that was without their best player in Patrick Balwin, who was a late scratch.  They will get blasted tonight against the best opponent they have faced this season.

Prior to that VCU victory, there were some very concerning results for Arizona State.  They only beat Tarleton State 62-59 as 14-point home favorites, beat Northern Arizona 84-68 as 16.5-point home favorites and actually lost outright at Texas Southern 66-67 as 11-point road favorites.  So they failed to cover three straight games against suspect competition and nearly lost two of them outright.

The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  The Sun Devils are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Thomas +5.5

St. Thomas played its first season in Division 1 last season.  It predictably didn't go great as they went just 10-20 overall.  But they returned their two best players from that team in Riley Miller (15.4 PPG) and Parker Bjorklund (12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), who are both deadly from 3-point range.  Head coach John Tauer added several Division 1 transfers and one of the best prep recruiting classes in the conference, lead by the in-state duo of Ahjany Lee and Kendall Blue.

St. Thomas is off to an impressive 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They blew out Chicago State 83-61 as a 9-point favorite and St. Francis 84-48 as an 8-point favorite.  Chicago State just upset Valparaiso as a 9.5-point dog last night.  But the loss may have been the most impressive.  St. Thomas only lost 72-60 at Creighton as a 28-point dog.  That's a Creighton team that is loaded and ranked in the Top 10.

Montana went 18-14 last season and did return a lot of their players, but clearly those players aren't very good when you look at their first two games this season.  Montana lost 91-63 at Duquesne as a 3-point underdog and 86-64 at Xavier as an 18-point dog.  Th Grizzlies have no business being a 5.5-point favorite against St. Thomas given what we've seen from these teams thus far.

The Tommies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Keep in mind this is a neutral site game in Houston as well, so there's certainly no way Montana should be favored by this much, let alone favored at all.  The Grizzlies are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.  Roll with St. Thomas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Portland -3.5

The Portland Pilots are loaded this season and a sleeper in the WCC.  They returned all five starters and 91% of their scoring from a team that went 19-15 in Shantay Legans' first year on the job.  Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 2021-22) has yet to play this season and is questionable tonight, but they are still loaded even without him.

The Pilots got off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 27, 37 and 8 points at home before going on the road and losing 65-77 at Kent State.  But the Golden Flashes are one of the best mid majors in the country as they are 4-0 this season with wins by 26, 22, 21 and that 12-point victory.  That loss to a very good Kent State team last time out has Portland undervalued tonight.

Now I expect the Pilots to bounce back in blowout fashion against Air Force tonight.  Air Force went 11-18 last season including 4-13 in Mountain West play.  They lost two of their best players from that team including leading scorer A.J. Walker (14.2 PPG in 2021-22).  They return only one double-digit scorer.

To no surprise, it has been a rough start for the Falcons.  They lost 58-62 at Bowling Green, only beat Delaware 75-71 at home and lost outright at home to Texas A&M Commerce 73-69 as a 10-point favorite.  They can't be losing to Texas A&M Commerce at home and expect to beat Portland, which will be by far their toughest opponent to date.

The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss.  Take Portland Thursday.

15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT).  I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless.  Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye.  I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.

Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense.  They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers.  No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.

I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time.  Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season.  They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston.  They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.

This is a terrible spot for the Titans.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days.  They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week.  They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report.  The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.

Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense.  This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee.  The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.

Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch.  And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night.  The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.

Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game.  They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF.  They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.

Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago.  In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings.  And we only need 65 here to cash this total.  The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Gonzaga/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +1

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 teams to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Christian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

Texas opened with a 72-57 win over a solid UTEP team before crushing Houston Christian 82-31 as a 31-point favorite.  The Longhorns could very well be the best defensive team in the country, and I look for them to shut down the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight.

We saw a chink in Gonzaga's armor with a 64-63 win over Michigan State as a 12-point favorite last time out.  The Longhorns can do the same.  They will be out for revenge from a 74-86 loss at Gonzaga last season.  That was a very good Gonzaga team, and they should be down a notch or two this season, while Texas is improved.  Plus, the Longhorns get them at home this time around.  Wrong team favored here in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere in Austin.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Wizards OVER 225.5

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in four consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York and 248 points with Boston in their last four games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon in.  The OVER is now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in seven of those 10 games.  This total of 225.5 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Washington Wizards will oblige and play the up-tempo game with them.  The Wizards get a big boost tonight with the return of their best player in Bradley Beal (21.6 PPG).  He has been out since November 4th, and he'll give their offense a big boost tonight now that he's back healthy.

The Wizards and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in three of their last four meetings, including 240 points in their most recent meeting.  The OVER is 20-6 in Thunder last 26 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 16-7 in Wizards last 23 home games.  The OVER is 21-9-1 in Wizards last 31 games following a win.  The OVER is 64-31-1 in Wizards last 96 games playing on two days' rest, including 10-1 OVER In their last 11 home games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5

Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week.  Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week.  No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes.  I expect them to win in a blowout.

This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team.  Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th.  That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference.  That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.

Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles.  Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.

It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late.  They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards.  They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards.  But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron.  The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games.  Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.

Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.  Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight.  Take Kent State Wednesday.

20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season.  They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in.  I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State.

The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving.  No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James.  Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis.  It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA.  It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction.

The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest.  The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot.  I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight.

The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now.  They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer.  They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites.  This team just can't be trusted right now.

The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers.  They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here.  They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas.  Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams.

The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season.  All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries.  Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut.  The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA.  He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He'll be out until December.  The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16

Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit.  They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three.  They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green.  That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.

Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible.  They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East.  They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week.  So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week.  That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.  That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.

The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated.  After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks.  They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.

Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141.5

Michigan State is coming off two low scoring games to start the season.  They won 73-55 over Northern Arizona for 128 combined points and a total of 144.  They lost 63-64 to Gonzaga for 127 combined points and a total of 142.  And now the books have set the number too high again with this 141.5-point total against a very good defensive team in Kentucky.

Kentucky has been without Oscar Tshiebwe (17.3 PPG, 15.3 RPG, 46 blocks last season) in his first two games this season.  But he is expected to make his season debut tonight, and he is arguably the best defender in the country.  They held Howard to 63 points and Duquesne to 52 in their two games without him.  Michigan State will have a hard time finishing anything at the rim with Tshiebwe in there tonight.

Kentucky is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 games following a home win.  The Wildcats are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  The UNDER is 59-29 in Wildcats last 88 games following a win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night.  Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night.  The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks.  The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage.

San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points.  The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright.  San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season.  UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games.  I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.

Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well.  In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points.  So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season.  They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.

The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five.  They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.

The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game.  The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football.  But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run.  They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.

Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins.  The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +20.5

The Houston Cougars are getting a lot of love after opening the season with two blowout wins over Northern Colorado and St. Joseph's.  While the Cougars are still loaded this season, they should not be favored by 20-plus points against a 'game' Oral Roberts team tonight.

The Cougars lost four double-digit scorers from last season in Edwards (13.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), White Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Carlton (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Moore (10.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG).  Their backcourt is loaded, but their frontcourt will take a step back.

Oral Roberts is among the favorites to win the Summit League this season.  They went 19-12 last season and brought back four starters, including star G Max Abmas (22.8 PPG, 3.7 APG last year.  They returned six other players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season including Issac McBride (12.3 PPG) and Elijah Lufile (7.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG).

I was impressive with the 70-78 loss at St. Mary's as 9-point dogs in their opener that flashed the potential of the Golden Eagles.  St. Mary's beat Vermont 79-53 as an 8-point favorite and North Texas 63-33 as a 9.5-point favorite.  So that 8-point loss to the Gaels looks even better after seeing what St. Mary's has done against their other two opponents.

The Golden Eagles are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Oral Roberts is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Golden Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Golden Eagles will give the Cougars more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Roll with Oral Roberts Monday.

20* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Oklahoma City Thunder have changed to an up-tempo game that fits their young roster in the last week and the oddsmakers are failing to adjust.  They lost to the Bucks and all their backups 136-132 (OT) for 268 combined points, beat the Raptors 132-113 for 245 combined points and beat the Knicks 145-135 for 280 combined points in their last three games coming in.

This 228-point total has been set too low with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is far and away 1st in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  But the Celtics have taken a big step back in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  They really miss the Robert Williams, who has been out with an injury all season.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Celtics last seven games overall with at least 225 combined points in six of those seven games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Boston.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites.  They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana.

A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight.  They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys.

The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys.  The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here.  They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham.  Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss.

Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss.  The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses.  Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs.  They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well.

Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season.  Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here.

The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5.  The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta.  So what has changed since the lookahead line?  Nothing really.  So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.

I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh.  And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries.  Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game.  The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out.  The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them.  People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them.  San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat.  The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.

The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan.  Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more.  The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass.  The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF!

The Nuggets don't have the same luxury.  They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days.  They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games.  Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench.

The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season.  They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for.  Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG).

The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season.  They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December.  I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge.  But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz.  They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it.  They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night.  The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night.

Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4

The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.

So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back.  He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way.  But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.

Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy.  Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL.  He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys.  He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.

The Packers are a mess injury-wise.  They have 15 more players on the injury report.  THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week.  Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week.  That leaves them very thin at the position.  They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season.  Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.

Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week.  If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week.  Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.

The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season.  That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat.  They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.

Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland +10

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies got off to a great start this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  But they were probably caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State when they lost 82-87 as 7.5-point home favorites to Bowling Green last time out.  Alas, now that loss works in our favor here as Oakland is catching too many points in this game catching 10 at home.

Oklahoma State has been far from impressive this season.  After beating UT-Arlington 77-66 as a 20.5-point home favorite, the Cowboys lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Southern Illinois.  Now they are overvalued once again in their third game laying double-digits on the road to a game Oakland team that has pulled some big upsets in recent years against Power 5 schools, or at the very least hung tough.

Indeed, last year Oakland won 56-55 as a 17-point underdog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Grizzlies only lost 71-84 as 22.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two seasons ago.  They've proven they can hang with this team already, and now they finally get them at home and are catching double-digits.  Roll with Oakland Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3

The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games.  They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.

Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage.  Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week.  This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball.  But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.

What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play.  I love backing good defensive teams.  The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.

Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night.  Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.

This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired.  The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense.  I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.

The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued.  They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are.  They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.

I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points.  The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans.  Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4

I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards.  That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.

Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record.  They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game.  Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.

The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover.  The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3.  But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.

The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams.  They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road.  The Browns are better than all three of those teams.  And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.

I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense.  Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week.  Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt.  There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.

This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua.  He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears.  CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  All six losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so getting 9.5 points per is some value.  Their first two wins came by 24 over the Colts and by 28 over the Chargers.  They finally won a close game last week with a 27-20 comeback win over the Raiders, and that victory will give them some confidence heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Jacksonville ranks 8th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 11th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Jaguars rank 16th in total defense at 343.4 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, which are numbers of a 5-4 or better team not one that is 3-6.  So the Jaguars are undervalued due to their record and catching too many points this week as a result.

Kansas City just cannot be trusted as a big favorite.  We saw that last week as they needed OT to beat the Titans with a backup QB in Willis, 20-17 as 14-point favorites.  So this is now a bad spot for the Chiefs off an OT game.  Home favorites coming off an OT home win are 23-41 ATS over the last 64 tries. They have a big divisional showdown on deck with the Chargers, making this a sandwich spot.

The Titans ran for 172 yards on the Chiefs last week, which is their weakness.  The Jaguars average 147 rushing yards pre game and 5.1 per carry, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground to keep them in this game and keep the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.  

Kansas City is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining 450 or yards per game on average in its last three games.   The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +14

Death, taxes and Cal's Justin Wilcox as an underdog.  Wilcox is 24-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of California.  He is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Cal.  He is also 7-0 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as the coach of Cal.  I'll take these two never lost systems to the bank Saturday with Cal +14 at Oregon State.

The Golden Bears are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate this season.  All six losses came by 19 points or fewer so they were competitive in every game.  That includes a 7-point loss at Notre Dame as 13.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Washington as 7.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss at USC last week as 21.5-point dogs.  They have proven they can play with the big boys in this conference.

Now they actually take a step down in class this week against Oregon State, which has no business laying 14 points to Cal this week.  The Beavers are coming off a misleading 21-24 loss at Washington in which they should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 136 yards by the Huskies.  The only teams Oregon State have outgained by more than 83 yards this season are Boise State in Week 1, Montana State and Colorado.

California is 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oregon State with all three losses coming by 4 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games as road dogs of 10.5 to 14 points.  Take California Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 232

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets visit the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday night.  The Rockets rank 7th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans are loaded on offense ranking 8th in offensive efficiency at 111.4 points per 100 possessions.  But they have been disappointing thus far this season because of their lack of defense.  The Pelicans rank 19th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has gone OVER the total in three consecutive games with combined scores of 246, 261 and 225 points.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rockets last six road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Pelicans last eight home games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -3

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 95-104 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday in which they shot just 38.6% from the floor.  This is now a 'buy low' spot on them as they are favored by only 3 points at home in the rematch here two days later.

It's also time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are a terrible road team and did most of their damage at home with four of their last five games in Atlanta.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  They have lost two consecutive games to fall to 6-3 this season.  Both were misleading as they committed a combined 11 turnovers to give the games away to Louisville and NC State, both on the road.  Now they are back home for a Saturday night game and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and hand rival UNC their first conference loss of the season.

Wake Forest is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with its lone loss coming to Clemson in overtime.  Now they face one of the luckiest teams in the country in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 8-1 this season while going 5-0 in games decided by one score.  That includes wins over App State by 2, Georgia State by 7, Miami by 3, Duke by 3 and Virginia by 3.  That was a Virginia team missing their starting RB and their top three receivers last week.  UNC's luck runs out this week.

Now the Tar Heels take a big step up in class this week as this will be their toughest test of the season.  UNC's suspect defense will finally get exposed this week, similar to when Notre Dame beat them 45-32 to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season.  They gave up 576 total yards to a suspect Fighting Irish offense.  The Tar Heels are allowing 31.0 points per game, 457.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and will struggle to get any stops against a Wake Forest offense that is averaging 42.8 points per game at home this season.

Wake Forest also wants revenge from two heartbreaking losses to UNC the last two seasons both on the road by 6 and 3 points.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wake Forest is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following a conference game.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 112-128 loss in Boston on Wednesday where they shot 41.6% while the Celtics shot 53.4%.  Now they get their shot at revenge just three days later here Saturday and are catching 9.5 points at home, which gives us a ton of wiggle room.

It's a bad spot for both teams, but a better one for the Pistons because of the revenge plus they will be the fresher team.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Pistons are the deeper team and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics after winning five consecutive games coming in.  It would not shock me one bit to see them rest some starters after Jayson Tatum played over 37 minutes, Jaylen Brown over 34 minutes, Al Horford over 34 minutes and Grant Williams over 32 minutes last night in the big win over Denver.

Boston is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  I love the spot for them now coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Toronto Raptors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They started to show their fatigue last night losing 113-132 on the road to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are still without their best player in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), and they aren't a very deep team as it is.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana should be favored by more today given how much the spot favors them.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* Kansas State/Baylor FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2.5

Baylor is 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS this season and very close to being undefeated.  Their three losses came to BYU (OT), Oklahoma State despite outgaining them by 78 yards and the Cowboys were off a bye week and out for revenge from the Big 12 Championship, plus a fluky 3-point loss at WVU in which they outgained the Mountaineers by 90 yards and their QB got hurt.

Baylor has since gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS after that loss to WVU and is playing its best football of the season.  The Bears beat Kansas 35-23 as 10.5-point favorites in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 149 yards.  They crushed Texas Tech 45-17 on the road then upset Oklahoma 38-35 on the road.  The Bears are now in position to get back to the Big 12 title game and will be motivated to do so by taking down Kansas State this week.

Baylor is a better team than Kansas State plus has home-field advantage, so the Bears should be more than only 2.5-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have lost to the two best teams in the conference outside of Baylor in TCU and Texas.  Baylor could very well be the best team in the conference again this season as I stated before they could easily be 9-0.

What makes Baylor so good is that they win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  That's the advantage K-State usually has over teams.  They won't have that advantage this week.  Baylor also has the better quarterback and skill position players.  The Bears average 211 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, while allowing just 127 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.

Texas just rushed for 269 yards on Kansas State last week and compiled 466 total yards.  TCU also rushed for 218 yards on Kansas State and racked up 498 total yards.  This clearly isn't a very good Kansas State defense, and their offense is very predictable.  Stop their running game and you stop Kansas State because they struggle throwing the football.  They only average 201 passing yards per game.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  This is a 7:00 EST game so it will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal for the Bears.  Roll with Baylor Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech -1.5

Two years ago Georgia Tech surprised everyone and won the ACC Tournament to make the Big Dance.  That makes their 12-20 season last year a disappointment.  But this is now a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets early this season.

Josh Pastner is a great recruiter and does have a pair of returning starters to work with.  But the excitement comes with a pair of transfers Gardner Webb star Lance Terry (14.3 PPG last year) and South Alabama's best player Ja'von Franklin (12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG last year).  

The Yellow Jackets crushed Clayton State 93-63 behind a balanced effort with six players scoring in double figures.  Terry led the way with 16 points while Franking had seven points and five rebounds and wasn't even one of the ones in double-digits.  That's a good sign moving forward and shows this team may have better depth than expected.

But this play is more of a fade of Georgia State than anything.  Head coach Rob Lanier departed for SMU after leading the Panthers to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.  Now this team is getting way too much respect early in the season based on what they did in the past, not what they're going to do this season.

Indeed, the Panthers lost all five starters from last season.  First-year head coach Jonas Hayes, a former Xavier assistant, has his hands full.  Georgia State was unimpressive in a 76-59 win over Coastal Georgia in their opener.  This is a massive step up in class for this young, inexperienced team tonight.

Pastner is 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech beat Georgia State 72-62 on a neutral last year.  That was a bad GT team and a good Georgia State team, too.  No question the Yellow Jackets are the better team this season with the Panthers having to replace their entire starting 5.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon looks like the best team in the underrated Western Athletic Conference this season.  Bryce Drew replaced Dan Majerle ahead of the 2020-21 season and immediately led the Antelopes to their first-ever NCAA Tournament.  They went 23-8 last year in his third season with the program.

Drew welcomes back three starters this season including Jovan Blacksher (15.8 PPG, 124 assists last season).  The Antelopes are off to a 2-0 start this season beating Montana State 60-54 and SD Christian 101-50.  Nevada should not be favored here.  They are coming off an 84-71 win over Utah Tech.  

The Wolf Pack went 13-18 last season and Steve Alford is on the hot seat, which seams to happen everywhere he goes.  It won't get any better for the Wolf Pack this season considering they lose four starters that averaged double digits scoring last season in Sherfield (19.1 PPG), Cambridge (16.2 PPG), Washington (10.5 PPG) and Bramah (10.8 PPG).

Grand Canyon is 32-17 ATS in its last 49 games overall.  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Wolf Pack are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Take Grand Canyon Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph.  They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses.  They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs.  They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.

Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday.  After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season.  That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff.  Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again.  They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff.  They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks.  They aren't worried about getting margin.

Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated.  They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime.  But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry.  Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs.  The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.

Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game.  Take Nebraska Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22

New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career.  He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.

This total is just 37 in some places.  So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much.  Points become more valuable when the total is this low.  The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers.  I would know since I was on them.

New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes.  The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies.  It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.

Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  They are very good against the run, which is key here.  They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.

This is a bad spot for Air Force.  They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week.  They also beat Navy 13-10.  I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points.  Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.

Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game.  Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7

Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game.  The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs.  They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.

But last week might have been the most impressive of them all.  Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week.  They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards.  That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.

Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week.  And this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week.  Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out.  That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice.  I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.

You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though.  They have barely been getting by all season.  They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6.  That's four games that went down to the wire.  I think this one will too.  Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds.  I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.

AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards.  Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards.  They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss.  These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario.  There tends to be a hangover effect.

Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6

I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend.  The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued.  They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.

North Texas is in control of its own destiny.  Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for.  Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday.  The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.

You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch.  They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky.  They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB.  And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.

Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game.  This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention.  That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here.  Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game.  And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played.  They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.

Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points.  They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense.  The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Roll with North Texas Saturday.

15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5

This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season.  They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff.  That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban.  I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.

The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss.  That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now.  There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.

Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread.  It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama.  That is a huge advantage.  It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table.  The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.

Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around.  This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past.  They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.

The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks.  Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold.  He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.

Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5

I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week.  But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season.  They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score.  They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks.  That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.

I want Liberty as an underdog.  I don't want them as a favorite.  Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite.  The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior.  They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well.  They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron.  That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.

UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS.  The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued.  That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog.  They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5

This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season.  Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.

The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season.  Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson.  Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV.  They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.

Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson.  This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week.  The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team.  Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.

I love the matchup for Navy as well.  Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now.  They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games.  Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense.  They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.  They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.

Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%).  Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game.  The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition.  Roll with Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72

The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week.  That was the highest-scoring game in college football history.  It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points.  The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.

The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games.  The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively.  They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.

But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER.  The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.

The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami.  They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch.

Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James.  They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season.  Now they will be without James tonight.  They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more. 

The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59

I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday.  Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games.  They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.

After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit.  Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.

Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future.  That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season.  He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.

Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State.  He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week.  Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.

UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield.  Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed.  As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off.  These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points.  UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Warriors OVER 228

Two elite offensive teams and two poor defensive teams square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This one has all the makings of a shootout tonight folks.

Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Warriors are having no problems on offense this season ranking 12th in offensive efficiency.  The Cavaliers have been great in that area which is a big reason for their improvement this season.  They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and scoring 116.6 points per game.

The reason the Warriors are struggling so much is because they have taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 25th in defensive efficiency.  We've seen at least 229 combined points in nine of Golden State's 11 games this season.  They are scoring 117.3 points per game and allowing 120.6 points per game.

The OVER is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five home games.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 10-1 start.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after they were just without all their best players and beat the Thunder 136-132 in double-OT.  They won't be able to beat the Spurs without all their best players tonight.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Spurs, who have lost five consecutive games but were competitive in three of the losses by 7 points or fewer.  The blowout losses were due to injuries.  But the Spurs are fully healthy now with the exception of Zach Collins.

The Spurs won't take the Bucks lightly tonight due to this five-game losing streak.  That's key because Milwaukee cannot beat them unless San Antonio has a letdown.  The Bucks are without their three best players in Giannis (31.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG), Holiday (19.6 PPG, 7.9 APG) and Middleton.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5

East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough.  Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week.  They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.

Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season.  The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.

You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference.  The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents.  That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses.  But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.

East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt.  This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.

Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense.  They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game.  The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.

The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere.  That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it.  Take East Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pennsylvania +12.5

Penn is expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season.  It's easy to see why as they returned four starters including likely Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle (20.8 PPG), who scored at least 30 points six times last season.  Max Martz (10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Jonah Charles (6.7 PPG) are sharp shooters.  Michael Moshkovitz (5.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is a do-it-all type.

But Penn was blown out 78-50 at Iona as 6-point underdogs in the opener.  I think that result has them catching too many points tonight against Missouri.  That's an Iona team that is one of the best mid-majors in the country coached by Rick Pitino.  And they simply had an off night shooting 32.7%.

Look for the Quakers to come back and give Missouri a run for its money tonight.  Missouri only beat South Indiana 97-91 as 19.5-point favorites in the opener, a way more concerning result than Penn.  This is a clear rebuilding year for the Tigers coming off a 12-21 season and under a first-year head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State.  The Tigers lost five players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season and return only one starter.

Penn is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 road games following a road loss.  Steve Donahue is 15-6 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of Penn.  Donahue is 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where his team made 33% of their shots or worse as a head coach.  Donahue is 45-22 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more as a head coach.  Take Penn Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Fordham +19.5

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson will be a key contributor right away.

The Rams are off and running with an 88-74 win over Dartmouth as 7-point favorites in their opener.  Quisenberry led the way with 20 points while Moore had 18.  Third-year starter Kyle Rose had 11 points and JC import Antrell Charlton scored 16 points.

While I like this Fordham team and think they are undervalued to start the season, this play is more of a fade of Arkansas.  They lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers.  I think they will struggle in the early going despite Eric Musselman bringing in some great talent to replace them.  

The Razorbacks only beat North Dakota State 76-58 as 22.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a NDSU team that lost four starters and three double-digit scorers from last season.  I would make Fordham a substantial favorite over NDSU, so I have to take the 19.5 points with the Rams here.  The Rams are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Roll with Fordham Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland -6.5

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies are off and running this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  Now they should roll Bowling Green, which narrowly escaped with a 62-58 home win over Air Force in their opener.

Bowling Green looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  The Falcons went 13-18 last season including 6-14 in MAC play.  They don't return a single double-digit scorer and lose their three best players in Plowden (15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Reece (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Diggs (9.5 PPG, 66 3-pointers).  There are seven newcomers and I expect chemistry to be an issue early for this team.

The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with Oakland Friday.

20* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iona -2.5

Rick Pitino is turning this Iona program into a monster. The Gaels went 25-8 last season including 17-3 in the MAAC.  They returned three starters from that team including MAAC Player of the Year candidate Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 69 blocks).

The Gaels are off and running this season with an impressive 78-50 home win as only 6-point favorites against what was expected to be a very good Penn team.  The three returning starters in Joseph, Slazinski and JeanLouis combined for 41 points.  Newcomer Daniss Jenkins led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists and could prove to be one of the best guards in the conference when it's all said and done.

Hofstra is getting respect tonight due to upsetting Princeton 83-77 as a 2-point underdog in the opener.  But that is keeping this line lower than it should be, and it's providing us with some line value to pull the trigger on Iona.  Hofstra returned its best player, but lost three starters in Ray (13.4 PPG), Cooks (12.2 PPG) and Ayiola (7.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG).  One guy cannot beat this balanced Iona team.

Iona is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Hofstra is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.  Bet Iona Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1

Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player.  That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving.  And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December.

The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home.  They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta.

That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night.  That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace.  They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest.  Take the 76ers Thursday.

20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61

Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations.  I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention.  And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.

The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout.  These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings.  They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.

Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game.  Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense.  But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.

Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game.  They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season.  They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.

The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season.  We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC.  We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -2

The UMass Minutemen made one of the best hires of the offseason grabbing Frank Martin from South Carolina.  He took the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017.  He is great at turning around programs and loves a challenge.

But the cupboard isn't bare for Martin.  He welcomes back one of the best point guards in the Atlantic 10 in Noah Fernandes (14.9 PPG) and shooter T.J. Weeks Jr. (9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) in the backcourt.  Fernandes had a team-high 147 assists last season while Weeks shot 36.9% from 3-point range.

Martin put his reputation as a talented recruiter and evaluator of talent to use.  He nabbed Louisville transfer Matt Cross and UConn transfer Rahsool Diggins, who were both Top 100 recruits out of high school.  He also brought in a couple big men with him from South Carolina in Ta'Quan Woodley and Wildens Leveque.  Dyondre Domingquez is a key returnee that should see more action.

The Minutemen are off to a great start to the Martin era with a 94-67 win as 17-point home favorites over Central Connecticut State.  I think Towson is getting too much love early in the season after going 25-9 last year and beating up on a bad CAA Conference.  They only beat Albany 67-62 as 16.5-point home favorites in their opener.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games.  UMass is 28-13-2 ATS in its last 43 home games overall.  Roll with UMass Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped.  There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive.  That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday.  That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped.

Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve.  The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss.

Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Thunder UNDER 219.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been relying on defense in the early going with injuries to Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles as all three have yet to play.  Now they are without PG Jrue Holiday, which will make them even more of an UNDER team until he returns.

But the Bucks have gotten to 9-1 this season thanks to ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.  They rank just 16th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game.  They are 20th in offensive efficiency.   To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 games this season.

Oklahoma City ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency, which has allowed them to at least be competitive.  So they are a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  And these teams just met on November 5th with Milwaukee winning 108-94 for 202 combined points.  It should be more of the same here just four days later, especially considering familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Timberwolves UNDER 226

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions.  Phoenix ranks 28th in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  They are even more of an UNDER team now without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) who is their best shooter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The addition of Rudy Gobert has indeed made them a better defensive team, which is what they wanted, but it has hurt them offensively.  The Timberwolves rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency.

These teams just met on November 1st with the Suns winning 116-107 for 223 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that will be the case here in the rematch just over a week later.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last six road games.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games overall.  Phoenix is 13-1 UNDER in its last 14 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 223.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in pace at 99.1 possessions per game.  They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions.  So this total of 223.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Rockets.

The Raptors have some good chemistry on offense as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring 111.9 points per game this season, while the Rockets are scoring 110.4 points per game.  Houston allows 117.9 points per game and Toronto should get to 120 here to lead the way to cashing this OVER.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  The Rockets and Raptors have combined for at least 228 points in four of the last five meetings with combined scores of 232, 259, 216, 233 and 228 points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both meetings last season sailed OVER the total.

The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are coming off 246 combined points with Minnesota followed by 261 combined points with Orlando in their last two games.

Plays on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or higher (Houston) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 255 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team without Kyrie Irving.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA and also arguably the single-worst defender.  The proof is in the pudding for the Nets when he has been out due to suspension the past three games.

Indeed, the Nets combined for 214 points with the Wizards, 192 points with the Hornets and 190 points with the Mavericks in their last three games without him.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five games overall.  It should be more of the same here against the New York Knicks.

Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing defense again this season.  New York ranks 15th in defensive efficiency but still struggles to score on offense.  This has been a very low-scoring series with the Knicks and Nets combining for 222 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Nets last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  They are dream OVER team because they play no defense, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Nuggets will oblige in a shootout.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Pacers are 13th in offensive efficiency scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have been even more efficient since Myles Turner returned from injury.

The Pacers have allowed at least 114 points in nine of their 10 games this season.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their 10 games.  The Nuggets have scored at least 110 points in nine consecutive games.  These teams combined for 243 points in their final meeting last season, and that was with Denver not having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.  The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Indiana is 20-6 OVER in its last 26 home games with a total of 230 or higher.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110

Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week.  The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers.  Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.

With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table.  They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week.  The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.

I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here.  They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron.  That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.

In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK.  The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least.  Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.

Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record.  They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record.  Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.  The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5

Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West.  Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already.  They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.

Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee.  They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season.  They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs.  They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play.  Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.

Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game.  Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites.  He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays.  The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.

Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).

Seattle beat UC-San Diego 73-51 as 4-point home favorites last season.  I think we are getting a discount on them as 3-point road favorites this season considering they return better talent and experience than UC-San Diego.  Bet Seattle Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range.  Their shooting of late is unsustainable.

It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* UTEP/Texas CBB ANNIHILATOR on Texas -22

Texas opens the season ranked No. 12 in the country and for good reason.  Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 games to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and CHristian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

UTEP went 20-14 last season but loses four starters from that team.  Their lone returning starters is Jamari Sibley (5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They lose their two best players by far Jamal Bieniemy (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Souley Boum (19.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  This looks like a rebuilding years in El Paso.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Bulls UNDER 222

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, the Bulls and Raptors just played yesterday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 113-104 for just 217 combined points.  Now they will play a day later, this time in Chicago.  This 222-point total had been set too high given the situation that favors the UNDER.

The Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace.  This total has been set too high based on how these teams like to play in the half court and not get out and run.  It is especially too high given the situation.  The Bulls are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors are 8th as well.

The has been an UNDER series as well.  The Raptors and Bulls have combined for 219 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven Monday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Monday NBA Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Heat UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER between the Blazers and Heat.  The Blazers are expected to be without their two leading scorers tonight in Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG).  We saw how well that went last time out when they were held to 82 points by the Suns.

The Heat could be without Tyler Herro (19.6 PPG), who is questionable.  Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) will return tonight but is still hobbled.  The Heat managed just 99 points last time out against the Indiana Pacers, which is really poor considering Indiana plays at a fast pace and is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Portland ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 13th.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace with the Blazers 17th and the Heat 15th.  The Blazers will be looking to slow it down even more without Lillard and Simons.

These teams are also familiar with one another having played on October 26th with 217 combined points in the game Lillard got hurt.  Portland is 25-10 UNDER in its last 35 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Blazers last eight road games.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Blazers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Heat last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.

Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.

Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season.  The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards.  They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense.  Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.

The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team.  They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play.  They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play.  They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.

Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field.  Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field.  I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7.  I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa.  I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.

The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury.  That would be two huge losses.  Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns.  Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores.  There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football.  The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight.  Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again.  Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December.

These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well.  The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well.  The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden.  They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5

The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time.  That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.

Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense.  The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th.  The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.

I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League.  Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth.  The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Fordham Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State ML +100

The Kent State Golden Flashes look like one of the top teams in the MAC this season.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that team.  That includes Sincere Carry (17.9 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Malique Jacobs (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG).  They also return their top reserves in Giovanni Santiago (8.6 PPG).

Northern Kentucky also has a decent outlook after going 20-12 last year and returning four starters as well.  But I just think Kent State is the better team and the wrong team is favored.  Kent State won the lone meeting two years ago 92-73 at home.

Common opponents last season also show the Golden Flashes were the better team.  They went 3-0 and outscored opponents by 15.0 points per game, while Northern Kentucky went 2-2 against those same three games and only outscored them by 1.3 points per game.  Kent State beat Eastern Michigan by 19 and 9 and Detroit by 17.  Northern Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan by 1, and actually lost twice to Detroit last season by 8 and 6 points.  Bet Kent State on the Money Line Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5

The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason.  They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).

The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State.  The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.

Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG.  Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG.  They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season.  The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games.  Take Tennessee Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades.  But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces.  The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.

That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs.  Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).

The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers.  Four of those five wins came down to the wire.  The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.  

So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well.  They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.

Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team.  It will give them the break mentally they need.  Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now.  And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks.  They also could get some players back in the secondary.

The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost.  I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week.  Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.

The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay.  The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers.  All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.

More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits.  They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers.  They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half.  And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle.  He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue.  They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that.  Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure.  Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury.  TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.

Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage.  All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line.  They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week.  Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

This line is an overreaction from last week's results.  Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets.  So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.

I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now.  Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3.  We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.

Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start.  He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future.  Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards.  But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.

I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary.  Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line.  The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing.  He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.

I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines.  Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself.  Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving.  He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action.  The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver.  Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.

After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week.  But their problems aren't fixed with that one win.  It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.  

Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won.  The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty.  The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones.  He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week.  Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.

Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams.  Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense.  The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even.  These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same.  The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.

Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents.  Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four.  But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers.  It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.

It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week.  Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.  Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.

The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss.  They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it.  Their problems aren't fixed.  The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.

The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers.  It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit.  Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb.  They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.

I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins.  But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up.  WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing.  Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it.  This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either.  This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.

The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5

This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy.  That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games.  They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.

Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week.  They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week.  Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room.  Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.

But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense.  After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week.  They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground.  They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.

Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon.  They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary.  The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards.  And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.

The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week.  But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds.  It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.

Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points.  Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo.

These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway.  Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd.  Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th.

Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces.  Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense.  All three of those guys are questionable.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS.  There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success.  But there is no discount tonight.

You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.  Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.

The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested.  They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.  They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.

Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks.  Take the Thunder Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54

Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season.  But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.

This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game.  Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury.  They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.

But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris.  He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action.  I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.

As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points.  Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again.  Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54.  That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Phillies/Astros World Series ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +134

I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to bounce back from two consecutive losses to force a Game 7 tonight.  This line is out of whack and should be much closer to even money.  The Phillies have the advantage on the mound and their best starter going tonight in Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler is 13-9 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.987 WHIP In 31 starts this season.  He has allowed just 10 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings in his last eight starts for a 1.99 ERA.  Framber Valdez has allowed 13 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings in his last six starts for a 3.37 ERA.

The Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games following an off day.  Houston is 2-7 in its last nine World Series home games.  The hardest game to win is the close out game, and I expect the Astros to be the ones feeling more pressure tonight.  Roll with the Phillies in Game 6 Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110

Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA.  When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated.  I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset.

The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York.  They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto.  They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion.  Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5

James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State.  But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them.  They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.

Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville.  They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.

The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern.  He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game.  Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.

The Dukes have elite numbers this season.  They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville.  The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest.  Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers.  So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable.  Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too.  They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.

Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season.  They have been competitive even in losses.  They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago.  Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs.  Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.

Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense.  The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  Those are even better numbers than Utah this season.  They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.

The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17.  Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late.  It's unlikely he will play this week.  They are also down to a third-string RB.

The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play.  But if they are out it would be an added bonus.  Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores.  Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores.  Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores.  All three are questionable for this contest.

The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback.  He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football.  He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.  

Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5

I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season.  They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State.  They arguably should have won all three games.

The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way.  The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.

I love the matchup for Texas this week.  The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.  The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country.  They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.

TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago.  Texas can do the same.  The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game.  They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.

Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach.  Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach.  Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use.  The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5

I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week.  After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame.  Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.

Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State.  On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.

"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said.  "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."

While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State.  They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.

UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games.  They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.  Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.

San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State.  They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class.  They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.

The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games.  Take UNLV Saturday.

20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5

Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football.  He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach.  What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable.  He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons.  That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.

What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks.  It hasn't mattered who has been under center.  Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job.  He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.

Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas.  They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game.  Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach.  They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks.  They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze.  That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27.  Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.

Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Liberty Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9

A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title.  That feels the same with this Tennessee team.  The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team.  They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.

The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck.  They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team.  They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.

The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons.  He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did.  He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop.  Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.

While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor.  They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has.  This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense.  After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.

Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today.  The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida.  Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game.  And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.

Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.

Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32.  Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards.  And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards.  Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.

The spot is a terrible one for UCF.  They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week.  They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year.  Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference.  That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.

UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home.  They finish with three of four on the road.  They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.

I love the matchup for Memphis.  The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games.  They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.

UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week.  He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground.  The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week.  But I like Memphis either way in this one.  They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses.  The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games.  The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week.  The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105

The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week.  He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.

The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team.  They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky.  They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing.  They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.

UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams.  The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week.  They are looking at this game as their National Championship.

UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in  that game, or by 99 yards.  Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.

UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses.  UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog.  The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5

Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season.  They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title.  QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury.  The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now.  They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.

But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast.  There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected.  That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium.  The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.

New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.

Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run.  The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.  They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday.  Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.

Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4.  They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2

I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week.  They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week.  They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season.  They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.

The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42).  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game.  Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.

This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU.  They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone.  The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.

And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense.  They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages.  They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.

These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners.  Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play.  The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play.  LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP.  They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.

Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.