Winning Sports Picks

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally playing up to their potential after going 0-11 in their first 11 games that were decided by 4 points or less. This is a dangerous team and one that nobody wants to play come playoff time if they get in.

Minnesota has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming at Portland. That includes road victories over both Golden State and Chicago during this stretch. The Timberwolves finally won a close game by a single point at Golden State (121-120), and I believe that result will give them confidence in close games going forward.

Memphis is also playing its best basketball of the season, but it has no business being a road favorite here. Point differential is one of the best indicators of how good a team is. The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on the season, while the Grizzlies are only outscoring foes by 0.4 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - off a home win, in January games are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on one days' rest. Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Nets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak. They should not be favored at Brooklyn, which is also playing its best basketball of the season.

The Nets have been playing well ever since a 95-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point underdog on January 2. They have gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS dating back to that huge win, and I'll gladly back them as a home dog as they come into this game on three days' rest.

The Thunder are in a huge letdown spot. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 112-95 victory at defending champion Miami. It's only human nature for them to let down after such a massive victory on National TV.

Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 107-56 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. Take the Nets Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are a very hungry team right now. They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five of those losses coming to playoff contenders by 8 points or less. They are coming off an ugly 85-88 home loss to the Wizards.

The Clippers are overvalued and overconfident right now after winning four straight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. This team has been beating up on mostly Eastern Conference bottom feeders during this stretch as eight of the 10 victories came against the East. The other two were at home against the Lakers and Mavs.

My biggest reason for backing the Warriors tonight is that they come in rested with one day off between games, while the Clippers come in very tired. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is the toughest situation in the NBA.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Golden State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Purdue/Michigan ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue +12

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now. They have opened a perfect 7-0 in Big Ten play due to winning all of their close games. Five of those seven wins came by 8 points or less. Off a massive win at Michigan State last time out, this team is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country. It has opened 13-7 this season, which includes impressive road wins over West Virginia and Illinois. Both of its Big Ten road losses this year came by exactly 3 points to Minnesota and Northwestern, so this team has proven it can play well away from home.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PURDUE) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Matt Painter is 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of Purdue. Painter is 25-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Purdue. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The Oregon Ducks are way undervalued right now due to having lost five of their last six games overall. After losing five straight with four of those losses coming by single-digits, they bounced back in a big way with a 71-44 win at Washington State last time out.

I look for the Ducks to build off of that win, and to continue playing motivated basketball after such a poor stretch. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they'll prove that against UCLA tonight.

UCLA has only played three true road games, going 1-2 with losses to Missouri and Utah. It's only win came against a depleted Colorado team that was missing its best player. The Bruins have proven nothing on the road this year, therefore they are getting too much respect as only a 2-point dog in this one.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA. The Ducks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Oregon is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games following a blowout win by 20 points or more. UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80%. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the land this season. That should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last season. This team is way undervalued having covered five straight and six of seven in Big Ten play this season.

I have really been impressed with how well Nebraska has played at home this year. In fact, it is 9-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in all home games with its only loss coming to Michigan (70-71) by a single point. The Wolverines are currently in first place in the Big Ten with a 7-0 mark. The Huskers have beaten the likes of Ohio State and Minnesota at home.

Indiana is reloading this season with only one starter back from last year. It is off to a mediocre 13-7 start, losing most of its big games. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 in true road games this season with their lone win coming at Penn State (79-76) by a mere 3 points.

Nebraska is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls. The Huskers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

The Florida Gators are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. Certainly, the Gators deserve some respect due to their 11-game winning streak, but asking them to win by 14-plus points on the road at Mississippi State to beat us is asking too much.

Only three of Florida's 11 wins during this run have been in true road games, and all three went down to the wire. It beat Arkansas (84-82), Auburn (68-61) and Alabama (68-62), which are all three teams that have similar talent to the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State (13-6) is certainly an improved team this year with all five starters back. I really like what I've seen from this team at home. The Bulldogs are 11-1 at home this season, which includes wins over Ole Miss (76-72), Texas A&M (81-72) and Auburn (82-74) in SEC play.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (FLORIDA) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Florida. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.

20* Bulls/Spurs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago +8

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being this heavily favored over the Chicago Bulls with the state they are currently in right now. They are expected to be without three of their best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green tonight. Not to mention, Tiago Splitter remains out.

The Spurs have struggled of late due to these injuries. In fact, they have lost four of their last six games overall. This has been a popular team to back off a loss over recent years, but the fact of the matter is that this isn't the same team. The Spurs are depleted, and as a result, this is just an average NBA team right now.

Tom Thibodeau is my favorite head coach in the league. What he has been able to do with Chicago through the injuries to Derrick Rose is nothing short of remarkable. The Bulls have managed to go 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. A big reason for their success is the addition of point guard D.J. Augustine, who has resurrected his career in Chicago. He is averaging 13.6 points and 6.0 assists for the Bulls.

Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. San Antonio is on a second of a back-to-back here after losing in Houston last night, making this situation even tougher with a depleted roster. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190

For many of the same reasons I am backing the Bulls in this game, I am also taking the UNDER. San Antonio is without four of its best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. Chicago is obviously without Derrick Rose. Points are going to be hard to come by.

However, the biggest reason to back the UNDER in this game is the fact that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Indeed, Chicago ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 98.1 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.8 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Bulls and Spurs as it is, and that trend should continue given the injuries. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Better yet, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 70-77 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 13. They also lost in overtime twice to the Jayhawks last season, so you can bet that payback is on the mind of every single player for Iowa State.

Amazingly, the Cyclones only lost by 7 to the Jayhawks despite playing the worst that they possibly could. They shot just 31.4% from the field compared to 49.2% for the Jayhawks. They went cold from 3-point range, connecting on just 4-of-25 (16.0%) attempts. They were also outrebounded 36-53.

I look for the Cyclones to be much sharper from the field, especially from beyond the arc, which is their specialty. I also look for them to be much more aggressive on the glass in this one. Plus, DeAndre Kane was about 60 percent healthy as he was playing on a hobbled ankle.

The Wooden Award candidate is back and healthy and will be a big reason as to why ISU gives Kansas a run for its money. Just last year, the Cyclones took the Jayhawks to overtime in Lawrence as an 11.5-point underdog only after a banked 3-pointer by Kansas at the buzzer.

Iowa State is a perfect 9-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 80.8 to 63.3 in this spot, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. This game will go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having a great chance to pull off the upset. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +9

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013-14. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik returned four starters from last year, and the result has been a 14-6 start and a legitimate shot to get into the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

While the Demon Deacons have not played well on the road this year, they simply have been flawless at home. In fact, Wake Forest is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game. That includes wins over the likes of Richmond, St. Bonaventure, UNC, NC State and Notre Dame.

For starters, Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 19-0 start. It has been a covering machine to boot, going 11-4 ATS in all lined games. The betting public has caught on to the Orange, which has forced oddsmakers to set an inflated line tonight.

This is a massive letdown spot for Syracuse with its biggest game of the season on deck against Duke this Saturday. The Orange won't be able to help themselves from looking ahead to that game. As a result, they won't have the kind of focus to beat Wake Forest by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after allowing 65 points or less five straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wake Forest is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Miami -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued due to their current 8-game winning streak that has simply seen Kevin Durant go off. Well, that streak is about to end and Durant is about to cool off as he'll be matched up against the best defender in the NBA in Lebron James.

You can bet that King James has heard about what Durant has been doing through the media. These two are 1-2 for the MVP award almost every single year. James is going to want to put Durant in his place tonight, and that extra motivation will help lead to a blowout home victory for the Heat.

There's no question that James and the Heat have gotten the best of Durant and the Thunder in recent years. In fact, Miami is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oklahoma City overall. All seven of those wins have come by 4 points or more as well.

Oklahoma City is a tired team right now as this will be its 6th game in 9 days. Miami is well-rested, having two days off prior to this game to rest up and prepare for the Thunder. The Heat are 19-3 at home this season, so they have protected their home court very well. Take Miami Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this Western Conference rivalry between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Since the return of 2012-13 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have gotten back to their usual lockdown defense. They have allowed an average of 86.2 points on 40.3 percent shooting in six contest since Gasol returned from an injured left knee. To no surprise, the UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games overall.

Memphis also earned its seventh win in eight games Saturday by finishing off a home-and-home sweep of Houston. It held the high-powered Rockets to an average of 84.0 points on 38.8 percent shooting in back-to-back games. That's 21 points below their season average.

Several played for Portland have struggled against Memphis. The Grizzlies gave up an average of 86.0 points on 40.8 percent shooting in four games against Portland in 2012-13, winning the last three.

Nicolas Batum averaged 8.3 points on 30.8 percent shooting in three of those meetings, and Wesley Matthews averaged 10.3 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the three consecutive defeats. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 17.7 points on 36.2 percent shooting in three games. His 15.4 lifetime scoring average versus the Grizzlies is his worst against any opponent.

Each of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen 191 or fewer combined points. This makes for an 8-1 (89%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 197.5. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Portland. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. John's +13.5

The St. John's Red Storm got off to a horrible start this season. It was certainly a surprise considering this team returned all five starters from last year and was supposed to be one of the most improved in the country. However, that slow start has created a ton of value for the Red Storm lately, especially here tonight.

St. John's has been finally playing up to its potential of late. It has won three straight coming in, including its most impressive performance of the season last time out. The Red Storm went on the road and beat Butler 69-52 despite being a 3.5-point underdog in that contest. I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team.

Creighton is way overvalued right now due to being nationally ranked. There's no question that this is a quality team, but they are nowhere near as good as the beat down they put on Villanova a week ago, which is the reason they are overvalued here. The Bluejays made everything they looked at in that game from 3-point range. Asking them to win by 14 to beat us against an underrated St. John's team is simply asking too much.

St. John's is 33-18 ATS in its last 51 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds last game. Creighton is 5-17 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show how overvalued the Bluejays have been when getting on a run like the current one they are on. Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's amazing how close this team is to being 20-0 right now. All four of its losses have come on the road to ranked opponents in Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85), Wisconsin (71-75) and Michigan (67-75) by a combined 20 points.

Iowa has yet to lose at home this season, going a perfect 11-0 while outscoring opponents 90.3 to 62.1, or by an average of 28.2 points per game. It's safe to say that Carver Hawkeye Arena has made a revival, and it will be rowdy inside when the Michigan State Spartans make a visit. These fans and the players want revenge from two 3-point losses to Michigan State last year.

The Spartans are in a world of hurt right now. They are likely to be without their top two big men tonight. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is out with a broken wrist, while Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is doubtful with a foot injury. Iowa is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 44-34 on the season, so the potential losses of Dawson and Payne will hurt the Spartans against the Hawkeyes more than they would against most other teams.

Iowa is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Iowa is 26-8 ATS in its last 34 games following a win. The Hawkeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 home games. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Once again, they are getting disrespected as a home underdog to rival Oklahoma State Monday. While I don't believe they'll need the points, I'll back the Sooners and the points for some insurance.

Oklahoma (16-4) has proven it is one of the better teams in the land in conference play. It has opened 5-2 in the Big 12, which includes road wins at Baylor and Texas, as well as a home win over Iowa State. Its two losses have come by 7 points or less to both Kansas and Kansas State (on the road).

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the land due to having Marcus Smart, who really hasn't been as good as he was expected to be. The Cowboys have opened 4-2 in conference play, and they've been atrocious on the road. They are 1-2 in conference road games, losing to Kansas State and Kansas, while beating lowly West Virginia (73-72) by a single point.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this rivalry. In fact, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series. Better yet, the Sooners are 9-0 in Norman against the Cowboys since a 65-52 loss back in 2004. As you can see, the wrong team is favored in this one. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets will take part in a defensive battle tonight. I look for the final combined score to be similar to the 176 points they put up on a 96-80 Toronto victory on January 11. This will be their 3rd meeting of the season, and familiarity favors defense.

The key to Brooklyn's success recently has been to slow down the pace and play better defense. The Nets are averaging about five possessions fewer per game in January than they were prior to that. Their offensive and defensive efficiency has gone up as a result.

Toronto has been playing at a slow pace all season. It ranks 23rd in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Brookiyn is 27th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. The Raptors rank 6th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.8 points per 100 possessions.

One big factor that has been backing the UNDER in this game is that Toronto is expected to be without leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He suffered a foot sprain against the Clippers on Saturday. DeRozan is in the midst of the best season of his career, averaging 21.8 points per game.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight road games overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -5

The Phoenix Suns continue to be the most underrated team in the NBA. They have won three of their last four, which includes wins over Denver and Indiana, to get to 25-18 on the season and right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.

The Suns are a league-best 28-14-1 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money. Sure, this is a second of a back-to-back situation, but this is the deepest team in the league, so that's not a problem. Also, they come in with momentum after holding the Cavaliers to 29 points in the second half of a 99-90 comeback road victory Sunday.

I'll gladly fade the Philadelphia 76ers (14-30), who have given up 100 points or more in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. They are giving up a league-worst 109.5 points per game this season. Their offense has been struggling to boot, averaging just 94.4 points on 42.4 percent shooting during a 2-9 stretch.

Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 99 or more points per game this season. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this year. Philly is 1-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game this season. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system going against Philadelphia. Take the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -4.5

The Golden State Warriors certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They have lost four of their last five games coming in with all four losses coming by eight points or less, and all four against some of the best teams in the league.

The Warriors are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for Portland, which will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. The edge in rest, preparation and motivation clearly favors Golden State.

That's also the case when you consider that the Warriors will want revenge from their 101-113 home loss to the Blazers in their first meeting of the season on November 23. The Blazers have lost their last two road games at Houston (113-126) and at Oklahoma City (97-105).

Portland is 1-10 ATS in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 110 or more points in two straight games.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Golden State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Blazers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Golden State. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah +15

The Utah Utes get the call Saturday as a massive road underdog to the Arizona Wildcats. Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Wildcats are clearly overvalued right now, which means it's time to fade them.

While Arizona (19-0) is considered the best team in the land, I have no doubt that Utah (14-5) is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. In fact, this team is very close to being undefeated this season. All five of its losses have come by 4 points or less with road losses to Boise State (67-69), Washington (57-59), Washington State (46-49) and Arizona State (75-79), as well as a home loss to Oregon (68-70).

Utah played Arizona extremely tough last season. It lost by a final of 57-60 as a 19-point road underdog on January 5. It came back at home and lost 64-68 as a 10-point underdog on February 17. There's no question the Utes want revenge and would love nothing more than to hand the Wildcats their first lost of the season. At the very least, I have no doubt they'll stay within 15 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UTAH) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Utah is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons. The Utes are 13-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse from the field over the last two years. The Utes are 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall. Bet Utah Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -5.5

The Oregon Ducks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday as they travel to face lowly Washington State. I look for that motivation and intensity to lead to a blowout road victory against the Cougars, who are just 8-11 on the season.

Oregon opened 13-0 and was nationally ranked. However, it has lost five straight games since with four of those coming by single-digits. It simply hasn't been getting the breaks, and it has played a brutal schedule to boot.

This is actually a break in the scheduled for the Ducks. Washington State is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Pac-12 play, getting outscored by an average of 16.5 points per game. The Cougars are clearly the worst team in the conference, and that will show again tonight.

Ken Bone is 0-9 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game in all games he has coached. Take this 100% system all-time straight to the bank tonight. Take Oregon Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in a rematch from last night's 88-87 road victory by the Grizzlies, making this a home-and-home situation.

That 175-point total should come as no surprise considering these teams have played in defensive battles dating back to last season. In fact, the last four meetings have seen 175, 192, 179 and 160 combined points. That's an average of 176.5 combined points/game, which is nearly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. Not only did these teams just face each other last night, but this will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Rockets and Grizzlies. This familiarity certainly favors the defenses considering they know what the opposing offenses like to do.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games following a win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -1.5

It's now or never for the Alabama Crimson Tide, who cannot afford many more losses if they want to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. Playing with that motivation in mind, I'll back them as a small home favorite over the LSU Tigers today.

Alabama is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record. It just simply has not gotten the breaks in close games as nine of its 10 losses have come by 10 points or less, including close setbacks against some of the best teams in the country in Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and Florida (62-68).

My biggest reason for backing 'Bama is the importance of home-court advantage in this series. Alabama is a sensational 14-2 SU in its last 16 home meetings with LSU.

Plays on a favorite (ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS when playing with one or less days' rest over the last three seasons. Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Michigan/MSU ESPN Rivalry Play on Michigan +5

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being favored Saturday. They are going to be without their two best post players, and as a result, they are going to get owned inside and likely lose outright. I'm only taking the five points for some insurance.

Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has missed the past four games with a foot injury and is doubtful to play Saturday. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) suffered a broken hand during a recent film session and will miss the next four-to-five weeks as a result.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing better basketball than the Wolverines right now. They have won eight straight games going in, going 6-1-1 ATS in the process. That includes road wins over Minnesota (63-60) and Wisconsin (77-70), as well as a home win over Iowa (75-67). Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +8

The Seton Hall Pirates have no business being this heavily favored over the DePaul Blue Demons Saturday in what I believe is a very evenly-matched game. I'll take the points in this one without hesitation as a result.

One of my biggest reasons for wanting to fade Seton Hall here is that it is in a very tough spot. Indeed, it is coming off a painful 76-77 loss at St. John's on Thursday. It came way back from 17 points down in the second half to have a chance to win in the end.

So, the Pirates used a ton of energy to come back, and now they only get one day to rest and prepare for DePaul. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons come in fresh and ready to go having last played on Monday, January 20 in a 10-point loss to Xavier. That edge in rest and preparation will be a big key to a Demon Deacons' cover today.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Saturday home games. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games following a game with five or less offensive rebounds. Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off a close road loss by 3 points or less. Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +9.5

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. I'll gladly take my chances with the Gators not being able to beat a very underrated Tennessee team by double-digits in this one.

The reason Florida is overvalued is due to winning 10 straight games heading into this one. It has shown signs of being overvalued in its last two games, failing to cover in a 7-point win over Auburn and a 6-point win over Alabama. This one will go right down to the wire as well.

While Tennessee is a mediocre 12-6 this season, a closer look shows how close this team is to being a lot better than that. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 9 points or less this season. That three road losses to Xavier (63-67), Wichita State (61-70) and Kentucky (66-74), which are three of the best teams in the country. Those three efforts give the Vols the believe that they can play with anyone on the road.

Tennessee simply has Florida's number. In fact, the Vols are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gators. They won 64-58 as an 8-point home underdog, 75-70 as a 12.5-point road dog, and 67-56 as a 7.5-point home dog in their last three meetings, respectively.

The Vols are 10-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three seasons. Tennessee is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following seven or more consecutive wins. Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be out for revenge from their 72-73 home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys back on January 11 just two weeks ago. They will give the Cowboys a run for their money today, and they should not be catching 14 points.

Oklahoma State is in a very tough spot here. It is coming off a heartbreaking 78-80 loss at Kansas last time out, and it has a huge game on deck against Oklahoma Monday. That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys, who will have a hard time getting motivated enough to beat WVU by 15-plus points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

West Virginia is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in its previous game. Oklahoma State is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Cowboys are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5

The Northwestern Wildcats will be out for revenge today from their ugly 67-93 loss at Iowa in their first meeting of the season on January 9. With the way this team has been playing of late, I like their chances to stay within double-digits of the Hawkeyes and possibly pull off the upset in the rematch.

Indeed, Northwestern is 3-1 in its last four games overall with home wins against Illinois (49-43) and Purdue (63-60), as well as a very impressive road win at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point underdog. It was a dog in all four of those contests.

Iowa is in a tough spot here. Not only will it find it hard to be motivated enough to beat Northwestern by double-digits after already topping the Wildcats by 26 points, it is also coming off a tough loss at Michigan, and it has an even bigger game with Michigan State on deck Tuesday.

The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where both teams scored 70 points or less over the last three seasons. They are winning 67.7 to 64.0 in this spot. They are clearly playing tremendous defense coming in. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Clippers/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. This team has been counted out all season since the loss of Derrick Rose, and all they've been doing is proving their doubters wrong.

Once again, the Bulls are being overlooked tonight by the books, and we'll take advantage. They have won nine of their last 11 games overall while going 8-3 ATS in the process. This team simply has no quit in them even with the tough circumstances.

The Clippers have really started to show signs of missing Chris Paul of late. They have lost two of their last three games overall, including a 91-95 setback at Charlotte last time out. Making matters worse is that backup PG Darren Collison is nursing a toe injury.

Chicago is 37-16 ATS in its last 53 Friday games. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle and for neither team to top 105 points in this one.

The reason this total has been inflated is because Atlanta has gone over the number in four straight coming in. That stretch followed six straight unders, and the biggest reason for it is the fact that they have been playing some terrible defensive teams.

San Antonio is no slouch defensively. In fact, it ranks 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions. After losing two of their last three and giving up 109 and 111 points in the losses, you can bet that Greg Popovich will be stressing defense coming into this one.

Looking at recent history in this series, it's easy to see why there's a ton of value with the UNDER. Each of the last six meetings have seen 202 or less combined points. Not counting overtime, each of the last 22 meetings have seen 210 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 21-0-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They came up just short against the defending champion Miami Heat Thursday, and there's no way they'll recover emotionally in time to give the effort it take to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

Orlando is going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing 12 of its last 13 games overall. It has been playing much better of late, covering three of its last five against the spread with two 3-point losses and a win over the Celtics.

The Lakers are an extremely tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. After covering each of their last six games ATS, they are simply way overvalued in this contest.

The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Los Angeles is just 8-16 on the road this year. Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The books have simply set the bar too high in this game tonight between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. For starters, the intensity in National TV games usually goes up a notch, and that favors the defenses more than anything.

There's no question that both teams will come in intense after losing their last two games each. The focus for both head coaches will be defense after the Nuggets gave up an average of 117.0 points/game in their two losses, while the Blazers allowed 115.5 points/game in their two defeats.

One surefire way to tell that this total has been inflated is to simply look at the first meeting of the season between these teams on November 1. Oddsmakers set that total at 198, which is nearly 24 points lower than tonight's posted total of 221.5. Portland beat Denver 113-98 for 211 combined points, and I believe a similar combined final is in store tonight.

Denver is 18-6 to the UNDER in its last 24 road games versus bad pressure defensive teams who force 12 or less turnovers per game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games playing on three or more days or rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nuggets last seven Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -3

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight. I'll take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout by game's end.

Penn State is one of the most improved teams in the country this season due to the return of leading scorer Tim Frazier, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury. However, the Nittany Lions have struggled in Big Ten play, opening 0-6 with three losses by 3 points or less. That leaves them hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference, and they get it tonight.

This is the perfect spot to fade Nebraska, which is coming off its biggest win of the season. After opening 0-4 in Big Ten play, the Huskers were able to upset Ohio State at home on Monday. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win. Plus, the Huskers only come in on two days' rest, while the Nittany Lions come in on four days' rest having last played on Saturday.

Nebraska is 0-8 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival over the last three seasons. It is coming back to lost 57.0 to 77.9 in this spot, or by an average of 20.9 points per game. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -4

The St. John's Red Storm are under the radar right now due to a poor start in Big East play. With all five starters back from last season, this team has certainly underachieved up to this point. However, I think this is going to be a dangerous squad going forward because of it.

St. John's has opened 0-5 in Big East play and is hungry for its first taste of victory within the conference. Three of those losses have come by 7 points or less, including two by a combined 3 points. There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should be a much heavier home favorite tonight.

Seton Hall is just a mediocre team that is getting too much respect from he books tonight. It was blown out at home by both Creighton (66-79) and Villanova (67-83). It also lost at home to St. Peters (80-83) in mid-December. However, it is coming off a big win at Georgetown last time out, which sets it up for a letdown spot here against a Red Storm team that simply wants it more.

Kevin Willard is 3-12 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three games against the spread as the coach of Seton Hall. Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is a sensational 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take St. John's Thursday.

15* Pacers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +6.5

The Phoenix Suns remain the most underrated team in the league this season. We are basically at the midpoint of the season, and this team is still 23-17 straight up and 26-13-1 ATS and right in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked Western Conference.

Once again, the Suns are getting overlooked as a 6-point home underdog to the Indiana Pacers when they really shouldn't be a dog in this game at all. Indiana is coming off a big win at Golden State Monday, setting it up for a letdown spot here.

Phoenix has gone 14-6 at home this season to really protect its home floor. Indiana has proven to be beatable on the road at 12-6 on the year. The Suns have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with the Pacers.

Plays against road teams (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with the Suns Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -2

Off back-to-back losses, which just so happened to be their only two losses on the season, the Wisconsin Badgers (16-2) will be out for blood tonight. I'll gladly back this motivated team against the overmatched Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.

While Wisconsin's two losses came by a combined nine points, Minnesota has really been overmatched in a couple of Big Ten games against the top teams in the league. It lost to Michigan State 75-87, while also falling to Iowa 73-94 last time out. It stands little chance tonight, too.

Wisconsin has won four of its last five meetings with Minnesota with its only loss coming in overtime. The Gophers have played a much softer schedule than the Badgers to this point, and I don't believe they are fully ready for the effort they're going to get from this hungry Wisconsin team.

The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Golden Gophers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten foes. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Take Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +7.5

This is a classic revenge game for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost at home to West Virginia by a final of 86-89 on January 6. Two weeks later, the Red Raiders will be out for payback tonight.

Texas Tech has been playing great since that defeat. After falling at Texas 64-67 as a 10-point underdog, it came back and beat Baylor at home 82-72 as a 5-point dog, while also topping TCU on the road 60-49 as a 2-point favorite.

West Virginia has been overrated all season, and it continues to be tonight. This team simply isn't that good, and that has shown in the last three games. It fell at home to Oklahoma State (72-73) and Texas (69-80) before getting throttled on the road at Kansas State (56-78).

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less. The Mountaineers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. WVU is 7-22-1 ATS in its last 30 home games. The Mountaineers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks OVER 204

The Philadelphia 76ers have gone under the total in five straight games heading into this showdown with New York. As a result, the books have been forced to set the bar too low in what I believe will be an absolute shootout tonight.

Philadelphia is combining with its opponents to average 211.1 points per game this season, which is 7.1 points more than tonight's posted total. The 76ers play at the fastest pace in the league with 102.4 possessions per game.

Neither team has been good defensively this season. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions, and 109.9 points per game on the year. New York ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, yielding 105.9 points per 100 possessions.

The 76ers are 38-19 to the OVER in their last 57 road games with a total set between 200 and 204.5 points. The OVER is 9-3 in 76ers last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 games following a loss. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Dallas and Toronto. These teams played in a 109-108 overtime thriller in their first meeting of the season, and it's going to take overtime again to push this total over the number.

After giving up 94 or fewer points in six straight and nine of their last 10, the Raptors have allowed 100-plus points in each of their last two games, both losses. They can point to their defense for the defeats, and I look for them to get back to playing the excellent D that they have been all year tonight.

Toronto will control the tempo playing at home tonight. It ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. The key to Toronto's turnaround this season has been its defense. It ranks 6th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 75-30 (71.4%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavs last five vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +11

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Quietly, they have gotten off to a 13-4 start this season and have proven their worth in ACC play. They have opened 4-1 in the conference, which includes a win over Duke.

Pittsburgh is a much-improved team this season as well, but it is way overvalued here and has been for much of the season. It has gone just 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 lined games, time and time again failing to cover lofty spreads.

The Panthers are coming off a huge loss to Syracuse by a final of 54-59 over the weekend. I fully expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it will be tough to bounce back emotionally from such a close defeat.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Pittsburgh is 1-12 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more over the last three seasons. Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They catch the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season, and I look for them to give the defending champs a run for their money.

Indeed, Miami has lost four of its last six games overall. Now, it is in a very tough situation returning home from a six-game road trip. Making matters worse for the Heat is the fact that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

Despite being on a tough run of late, Boston has shown some fight. It has covered the spread in five of its last eight games overall, which includes losses at the Clippers (105-111) as an 11-point dog, at the Warriors (97-99) as an 11.5-point dog, and at the Blazers (104-112) as a 12-point dog. The Celtics have lost their last four road games all by 8 points or less.

Boston beat Miami 111-110 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Plays against home teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +12

The Indiana Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Not only do they have revenge in mind, but they also want to get the sour taste out of their mouths from an ugly loss last time out.

Indiana lost 56-73 at home to Michigan State on January 4 just over two weeks ago. There's no question it wants payback from that defeat. Off a big win over Wisconsin, it was only human nature that the Hoosiers would let down against Northwestern last game, and it cost them as they lost outright. The Spartans will have their full attention.

Michigan State is way overvalued right now due to its 10-game winning streak heading into this game. Plus, the Spartans are expected to be without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a foot injury.

Indiana is 5-1-1 (83%) ATS in its last seven road games. Tom Izzo is 30-47 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Michigan State. Roll with Indiana Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home to the Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in a game that I believe they win with ease.

After losing two of their last three games overall to the Nuggets and Thunder, I look for the Warriors to try and make a statement tonight. The defensive intensity will be there after giving up massive point totals to both the Nuggets (123) and Thunder (127).

Indiana comes in overvalued due to winning four straight games coming in. All four of those wins came at home, but the Pacers have proven to be beatable on the road, posting an 11-6 record. Golden State is 12-5 at home this season.

Plays against road favorites (INDIANA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Warriors Monday.

15* Baylor/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baylor +10.5

The Baylor Bears will be a highly motivated team tonight when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks. They are way undervalued due to losing three of their first four games in Big 12 play, and I'll gladly take advantage by backing them as a double-digit dog here.

At 13-4 and with wins over Colorado, Dayton, and Kentucky all away from home, I have no doubt that Baylor is still one of the better teams in the country. I look for the Bears to prove that tonight against what is perceived to be as the best team in the Big 12.

After a 4-0 start in conference play, I have no doubt that Kansas is overvalued in this one. Three of those wins came by seven points or less, so it is fortunate to have this record. Remember, the Jayhawks have lost four games this season, including a home loss to San Diego State.

The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. Baylor is a very profitable 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Kansas. Clearly, the Bears have not minded playing in Lawrence at all. Roll with Baylor Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -5

The Miami Heat are back on track with two straight wins over Philadelphia and Charlotte. I look for them to cap off their current six-game road trip with a blowout victory at Atlanta after starting the trip on a three-game skid.

Since losing star center Al Horford, the Atlanta Hawks have really struggled. They have lost five of their last seven games overall while going 2-5 ATS in the process. This team was already lacking talent even with Horford, but without him they're in a world of hurt.

Plays on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.

Miami is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 9-21 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last two years. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days rest. Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +1

After losing four of their last five games overall, the Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory when they host the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance of this team and to get right back on track.

Phoenix is a very solid 22-17 on the season, which includes two wins over Denver already. It won 114-103 at home on November 8, and 103-99 on the road on December 20. The Suns are now 24-8 straight up in their last 32 home meetings with the Nuggets.

The Suns are a very solid 13-6 at home this season, while the Nuggets are just 9-10 on the road and have historically struggled away from home. The Nuggets just lost at home to Cleveland last time out, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Denver is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games. Phoenix is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Suns Sunday.

15* Oregon/OSU CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2.5

The Oregon Ducks opened the season 13-0 and were rolling. Three straight losses later to Colorado, Cal and Stanford, and this team is searching for itself. Due to this 3-game skid, I look for the Ducks to be even more motivated than usual as they do battle with in-state rival Oregon State in the Civil War Sunday.

I have no doubt that Oregon is still one of the best teams in the country despite this recent skid, and I look for it to show it tonight. This team is simply undervalued right now due to the streak and the six straight losses against the spread as well, and now is the time to pounce.

Oregon State (9-7) is clearly overvmatched in this one. Its true colors have shown as the schedule has gotten tougher of late, losing five of its last eight games overall. Oregon won both meetings by double-digits last year to improve to 24-8 straight up against Oregon State since 1997. The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Oregon State.

Oregon is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oregon State is 14-37 ATS in its last 51 home games following a home loss. The Ducks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Bet Oregon Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4

The San Francisco 49ers have had to go on a much more difficult path to reach the NFC Championship Game. Despite winning 12 games during the regular season, they had to go on the road in the first two rounds. After dominating Green Bay in the box score but only winning 23-20 in the Wild Card Round, they continued their momentum with a 23-10 win at Carolina in the Divisional Round.

San Francisco has now made the NFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season in the first three years under Jim Harbaugh. It is more prepared to handle the pressure of this game than Seattle, which hasn

15* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship No-Brainer on Denver -4

Denver got the monkey off its back by beating the San Diego Chargers in the Divisional Round. This game wasn

15* Louisville/UConn ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Connecticut +2

The UConn Huskies have been undervalued for most of this season. That is certainly the case again here tonight as they are a home underdog to the defending champion Louisville Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage.

I've seen enough from the Huskies to know that this team can beat anyone in the country. It has racked up neutral court wins over Maryland and Indiana, home wins over Florida and Harvard, and road wins over Washington and Memphis. That's an impressive slate.

Louisville is 0-3 against the best three opponents that it has faced this season in UNC, Kentucky and Memphis. I would argue that it doesn't have a good win yet considering all of its wins have come as a favorite of 13.5 points or more. It is short-handed as well as it is playing without Chane Behanan (dismissed from team) and third-leading scorer Chris Jones (11.3 ppg).

UConn is 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Huskies are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with UConn Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Pelicans UNDER 204.5

After back-to-back poor defensive performances in giving up 123 points to Denver and 127 to Oklahoma City, you can bet that head coach Mark Jackson isn't going to stand for it. He'll get after his team, and the Warriors will respond with a much better effort defensively tonight.

Making matters easier for the Warriors is the fact that they'll be playing against a New Orleans team that is short-handed right now. The Pelicans are without leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) and starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg). They may also be without fifth-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (12.6 ppg), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

New Orleans has really struggled offensively of late. It has scored 96 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall. Golden State had given up 102 or fewer in five straight games before its last two poor performances.

Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 203 or fewer combined points with totals of 197, 203, 186 and 165 points, respectively. Dating back further, nine of the last 10 meetings have seen 203 or less points, making for a 90% system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Bonaventure -3

St. Bonaventure is one of the better teams in the country that not too many folks know about. Despite being just 11-6 on the season, this team is favored for good reason over George Washington (14-3) tonight.

All six of the Bonnies' losses have come on the road this season with five of them coming by 6 points or less. That includes back-to-back impressive losses at UMass (68-73) as a 7-point dog and at Saint Louis (60-66) as an 11-point dog. They'll clearly be motivated to get back in the win column today.

You have to like their chances considering the Bonnies are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. All three of George Washington's losses have come on the road this year. Off a massive win over VCU earlier this week, the Colonials are in line for a colossal letdown today.

GW is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game after 15-plus games. St. Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. The Colonials are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bonnies are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by 6 points or fewer. Bet St. Bonaventure Saturday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. John's -13

The St. John's Red Storm (9-8) are going to be highly motivated for a win today. As a result, I'll back them as a generous 13-point favorite against Dartmouth (7-7) Saturday.

The Red Storm may be the best team in the country that has eight losses or more on the season. This is a team that returned all five starters from last year and was expected to be improved, but after a slow start, they are undervalued right now.

St. John's is coming off five straight losses against a brutal schedule, and it wants to take out its frustration today. Six of its eight losses have come by 10 points or less, and five of them have come against Wisconsin, Syracuse, Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova.

This is a Dartmouth team that has home losses to Vermont (53-62), Hartford (56-68) and Bryant (56-68), as well as a road loss to IUPU-FT Wayne (64-80) among its seven losses overall. Those results allow me to believe that they have no chance of hanging with the motivated Red Storm today.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (ST JOHNS) - off 2 or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1997. Take St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -1.5

Off back-to-back losses for their first two defeats of the season, I am backing the Iowa State Cyclones to bounce back with a road win at Texas Saturday. This is a serious contender to win the Big 12, and it cannot afford a third straight loss if it wants to accomplish that feat.

Texas is coming off back-to-back wins, including a victory at West Virginia last time out. This is a quality team and one that is better than most expected coming into the season, but I believe it is overvalued due to the solid start. This team is a bit of a fraud and will fade as the Big 12 season rolls along.

Iowa State shot just 31.4% against Kansas while giving up 49.2% shooting to the Jayhawks, yet still only lost 70-77. Even playing their worst game Monday, the Cyclones still had a chance to win that game in the end.

The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons. They are coming back to win by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Iowa State is also 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years. It is winning by 14.6 points per game in this spot. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler PK

The Butler Bulldogs will be more motivated for a win today than they have been at any point in the season thus far. That's why I'm going to back them at a very generous price as a pick 'em at home against Marquette Saturday.

Butler has lost five straight games coming in with three of those losses coming by five points or less, including setbacks to Villanova (73-76) and Georgetown (67-70). It is ready to put an end to this skid, which has been the result of a brutal schedule and poor fortune in close games more than anything.

Marquette is just 1-4 in true road games this season. I really believe that the Bulldogs are going to be the more motivated team here because they lost both meetings to the Golden Eagles last year by a combined three points, including a 72-74 setback in the NCAA Tournament. They want revenge this year.

The Golden Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Big East opponents. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system going against Marquette. Also, the Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats get the call Saturday as a small home favorite over the West Virginia Mountaineers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from the books.

That has been very evident of late as the Wildcats have gone a healthy 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. That includes wins over the likes of Ole Miss, Gonzaga, George Washington, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

I'm just not sold on West Virginia (10-7), which is getting too much respect from the books here. It has lost its last two games to Oklahoma State and Texas at home. I think its two narrow road wins over TCU and Texas Tech by a combined eight points to open the Big 12 season have it overvalued.

Kansas State is 9-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The Mountaineers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Dallas Mavericks Friday. They are a home underdog and really should not be. But just like they have been all season, this team is getting overlooked.

Indeed, Phoenix is 22-16 straight up on the year and a very healthy 25-12 ATS. This team has the best ATS mark in the entire league, which is the ultimate sign that a team is undervalued.

Dallas is coming off a big loss at the Los Angeles Clippers by a final of 127-129, and it will suffer a hangover off that defeat. That's especially the case considering it has a huge game against Portland on deck tomorrow night. It will be looking ahead to that contest as well.

Phoenix is 13-5 straight up at home this season. Plays on home underdog (Phoenix) off a home win, in January games are 54-20 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 17-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Phoenix is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They not only beat the defending champion Miami Heat last time out, they destroyed them 114-97. They are certainly feeling good about themselves heading into this game with Chicago tonight.

The Wizards are primed for a huge letdown following that win. Adding to the letdown factor is the fact that Washington beat Chicago 102-88 on the road on January 13 just five days ago. I really believe the Wizards won't even show up tonight.

The Bulls, meanwhile, will be out for revenge from that loss earlier this week. This team has been playing great, but it continues to get disrespected. The Bulls have won six of their last seven games overall behind the most underrated head coach in the business in Tom Thibodeau.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Friday game. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +2

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a well-rested team. This will only be their second game in five days, so they'll be ready to go tonight. This is the best team in the league that currently has a losing record, without question.

In fact, the Timberwolves are 0-11 in games decided by four points or less this season. That's how close they are to being a 29-9 team rather than an 18-20 one. Due to having a losing record, this team is going to be showing great value going forward.

I have been big on Toronto for much of the season, but it should not be a favorite against Minnesota tonight. The Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but they aren't better than a middle-of-the-pack team from the West.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. It is coming back to win 114.7 to 100.6 in this spot, or by an average of 14.1 points per game. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS off a home loss this year, winning 118.4 to 98.3 in this spot, or by an average of 20.1 points per game. Take the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday BAILOUT on Houston -2

The Houston Rockets are going to be out for revenge in a big way tonight when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Toyota Center. That's why I'm not concerned that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back, because they'll want this one enough that fatigue will not be a factor.

The reason Houston is going to be extra motivated is not only the fact that it lost to Oklahoma City in six games in the playoffs last year, but also that it suffered its worst loss of 2013-14 to the Thunder as well. The Rockets fell 86-117 on December 29 in Oklahoma City.

The biggest difference from then and now is that the Thunder no longer have Russell Westbrook. They clearly aren't even close to the same team without their start point guard. In fact, the Thunder have lost five of their last eight games overall with their three wins coming against Boston, Minnesota and Milwaukee.

Houston is 15-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game. The Rockets are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a road non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Houston is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 games off a road win by 3 points or less. The Rockets are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 home games off a road win against a division rival. Houston is 37-15-3 ATS in its last 55 Thursday games. Take the Rockets Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +13

Nebraska-Omaha is one of those teams from a small conference that the betting public has not caught onto. The Mavericks have been a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS this season, and I'll continue to ride them showing tremendous value tonight.

This is a Nebraska-Omaha team that returned four starters from last season. It is led by three absolute studs in John Karhoff (14.4 ppg), CJ Carter (14.1 ppg) and Devin Patterson (12.1 ppg). The Mavericks are averaging 83.3 points per game this season and shooting 78.6% from the free throw line.

North Dakota State also returns a lot of talent from last season, but this team is simply overvalued tonight. The Bison have failed to cover the spread in three of their last five games overall, which includes a 71-82 loss at IUPU-FT Wayne despite being a 7-point favorite.

NDSU is 0-7 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Omaha has not lost by more than 13 points yet this season, which includes covers at Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point dog, at UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog, at Minnesota (79-92) as a 16-point dog, and at Hawaii (73-77) as a 9-point dog. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Thursday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5

The New York Knicks get the nod Thursday as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. They have really turned it around of late and are playing their best basketball of the season heading into tonight's contest.

New York has won five of its last six games overall, which includes victories over the likes of Dallas, Miami and Phoenix. The big reason for the turnaround has been the return of health to both Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton.

The motivation factor is clearly going to be on the Knicks' side in this one. They lost in six games to Indiana in the playoffs last season, and they also fell in overtime 96-103 in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign. New York is going to be out for blood tonight.

Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. New York is 20-0 ATS revenging a loss where opponents scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston +18

The defending champion Louisville Cardinals are once again overvalued tonight as an 18-point favorite over the Houston Cougars. I'll gladly fade them here, which is something I've done with quite a bit of success this season.

Louisville is really lacking quality wins this season. In its three toughest games this year, it lost to UNC (84-93), Kentucky (66-73) and Memphis (67-73). This team has failed to cover in three straight games, and they are nowhere near as good as they were a year ago when they won it all.

The team dismissed Chane Behanan in early January, which left the Cardinals very thin along the front line. Now, they are expected to be without third-leading scorer Chris Jones (11.3 ppg), who is out with an oblique injury.

Houston (10-6) is quietly having a solid season. I have backed this team with success a few times this year, and I believe it is one of the more underrated teams in the land. It nearly beat Cincinnati (60-61) last time out, and it beat UConn (75-71) just a couple weeks ago. This team is capable of hanging with Louisville.

The Cardinals are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following four consecutive games as a favorite. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Houston Thursday.

20* UConn/Memphis ESPN No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut +6.5

The Connecticut Huskies are showing their best value of the season as a mid-sized road underdog to the Memphis Tigers tonight. I look for them not only to cover, but to likely win this game outright tonight.

Had they been eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year, they would have gone. Now eligible in 2014, and with all five starters back from that team, the Huskies are the real deal at 13-3 this season. They have beaten Maryland, Indiana, Florida, Washington and Harvard en route to this solid start.

Memphis comes in overvalued after back-to-back wins at Louisville and Temple. Those two wins have certainly masked their 53-69 home loss to Cincinnati in their last home game, but I certainly have not forgotten about it. UConn plays hard-nosed defense and will give this young Memphis team fits.

The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. Memphis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 10 points or more. Bet Connecticut Thursday.

15* Washington/California Pac-12 BAILOUT on Washington +9.5

The Washington Huskies get the call Wednesday as a big underdog to the California Bears in the final game of the night on the college hardwood. Asking the Bears to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The Huskies are off to an 11-6 start this season, but they have saved their best basketball for the Pac-12. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in Pac-12 play, which includes an impressive road win at Arizona State (76-65) as a 10.5-point underdog, and a blowout home win over Colorado (71-54) as a 3.5-point dog.

Despite playing well, the Huskies are getting no respect from the books. While Cal is also playing well, it is indeed getting all kinds of respect from the books. Cal has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Pac-12 play, and I have been on the Bears for two of those three games. I just think it's time to fade them now that they are overvalued due to this impressive mini-run.

California is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in a win over a conference rival. Washington is 9-2 ATS in January games over the last two seasons. Lorenzo Romar is a sensational 93-63 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Washington.

The Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Huskies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Cal. Bet Washington Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -7

The Golden State Warriors are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 games overall, and now they have had four days to recover from a grueling stretch of games having last played on January 10. They'll have no problem getting motivated to face Denver on National TV tonight.

The Nuggets have been one of the most streaky teams in the league this season. They had lost eight games in a row from late December to early January before reeling off five straight wins. They lost their last contest at Utah 103-118, and I look for that to be the start of another losing streak for this team.

Golden State is a healthy 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver. The Warriors are 12-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points per game. Denver is just 8-10 on the road and has historically been an awful road team.

Plays against road teams (DENVER) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.

Golden State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on three or more days rest. Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons get the nod as a small home favorite over the NC State Wolfpack tonight. This is a very generous line given how Jeff Bzdelik's team has played at home.

Indeed, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. They have beaten the likes of Richmond (76-66), St. Bonaventure (77-62) and North Carolina (73-67) at home this season, so it's not like they have beaten up a bunch of cupcakes.

While Wake Forest has four returning starters and is much-improved in 2013-14, NC State is a young team with just one starter back. It has struggled of late, losing three of its last five games overall, including a 45-76 home loss to Virginia last time out. It also has a home loss to NC Central (72-82) on its resume.

Wake Forest has won 12 of its last 16 home meetings with NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 60 or less points. Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS in January home games over the last two years. The Demon Deacons are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a world of hurt right now. They are without two of their top three players, and as a result, they have lost six straight games heading into this contest with Houston. Five of those losses have come by six points or more.

Leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) may miss the rest of the season. Top assist man Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) remains out with a fractured leg. Also, shooting guard Tyreke Evans (12.6 ppg) is questionable to play tonight with a bum ankle.

Houston comes in playing well having won four of five. It has really dominated this series of late, winning five of its last six meetings with New Orleans. Four of those five wins came by seven or more points, including a 100-82 victory in its last trip to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games. Take the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +21

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are getting way too much respect from the books tonight as a 21-point favorite over the TCU Horned Frogs. I'll gladly take advantage and take all the points I can get here.

Oklahoma State is in a huge letdown spot here. It will be looking ahead to its massive showdown with Big 12 favorite Kansas this Saturday in Lawrence. It will not be giving TCU the attention it deserves because of it.

The Horned Frogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 9-6 start. They are undervalued due to opening 0-3 in Big 12 play, which included a 62-68 loss at Baylor last time out. I look for them to easily stay within 21 points of a Cowboys team that will just be going through the motions tonight.

As horrible as TCU was last season, it still stayed within 18 points or Oklahoma State in both meetings. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +11.5

The Duquesne Dukes get the call as a double-digit underdog tonight to the St. Joseph's Hawks. I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Dukes having a good shot to pull off the upset on the road.

Duquesne is off to a respectable 8-6 start overall. It has played its best basketball on the road this season, going 3-1 straight up in true road games.

St. Joe's is 10-5 this season, but it could be without one of its best players tonight. Second-leading scorer Ronald Roberts (14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is questionable to play with a back injury after missing Saturday's game against George Mason.

What really attracted me to Duquesne is the fact that it has played St. Joseph's very tough in recent years. In fact, three of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime. Duquesne hasn't lost by more than eight points to St. Joseph's in any of the last seven meetings.

St. Joe's is 1-8 ATS after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls over the last three seasons. The Hawks are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Roll with Duquesne Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State +10

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013. They are still getting treated like a bottom feeder in the Missouri Valley, which simply is not the case.

Missouri State is off to a 12-4 start this season with three of its losses coming to three of the best teams in the country in Wichita State, Louisville and Virginia. That loss to Wichita State came by a mere three points with a final of 69-72 to really show what the Bears are capable of.

I am high on Indiana State this year as well, but this is simply a tough spot for the Sycamores. They will be looking ahead to their game at No. 5 Wichita State on Saturday. They won't give Missouri State the attention it deserves, and thus they won't win this game by double-digits.

Indiana State is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons. The Bears are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Missouri State is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. MVC foes. The Sycamores are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. Take Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler +10.5

The Butler Bulldogs are showing tremendous value as a double-digit road underdog to the Creighton Bluejays Tuesday. I look for them to be highly motivated and to lay it all on the line after a brutal stretch of games heading in.

Butler got off to a 10-2 start this season to pick up right where it left off under former head coach Brad Stevens. However, it hast lost four straight games all by 11 points or less to Villanova (73-76), Xavier (68-79), DePaul (94-99) and Georgetown (67-70) coming in. I look for it to possibly pull off the upset here.

Creighton is coming off a big 95-89 home victory over Xavier last time out, which was on Sunday. That means that it has only had one day to prepare for Butler, while the Bulldogs have had two days to prepare after losing to Georgetown on Saturday. That is a huge advantage for the Bulldogs, who catch the Bluejays in a letdown spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (BUTLER) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 117-60 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Creighton is 9-19 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Bet Butler Tuesday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +14.5

The Temple Owls are showing tremendous value as a massive underdog to the Cincinnati Bearcats Tuesday. This team is way undervalued due to its poor 5-9 record, but a closer look shows that this team is better than its record would indicate.

In fact, all nine of Temple's losses have come by 14 points or less, including eight by 10 or fewer, and seven by 7 or less. This team hasn't really been blown out yet, and I don't look for that to happen for the first time Tuesday, either.

Cincinnati is overvalued right now due to covering six of its last seven games overall. It is coming off a 20-point home win over Rutgers in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights went 0-for-14 from the field over their final 14 shots of the game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CINCINNATI) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. Temple is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. Take Temple Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +11

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country by season's end. Six of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less. I look for them to put up a fight against Michigan tonight as well.

The Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Indiana by exactly three points. In fact, they have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play, which is why they are undervalued here. There's no question they are hungry for their first victory.

After making the championship game last season, the Wolverines have clearly been overvalued this season. They have lost four times already and have very few impressive wins. Their only wins by more than this 11-point spread have come against UMass-Lowell, South Carolina State, Long Beach State, Coppin State, Houston Baptist, Holy Cross and Northwestern.

Penn State played Michigan very tough in both regular season meetings last year. It lost 71-79 at Michigan as a 22-point underdog, but got revenge with an 84-78 home victory as a 13-point dog. Just like the Wolverines overlooked them last year, I could easily see it happening again considering Michigan has a huge game on deck at Wisconsin Saturday and could be looking ahead.

The Nittany Lions are 15-3 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997. Penn State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games. Michigan is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Penn State Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats -1

After losing three straight and eight of their last nine games overall, the Charlotte Bobcats are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They come in on two days' rest and will be ready to go as they welcome the New York Knicks.

While the Bobcats are well-rested, the Knicks are a tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. Making matters worse is that they needed overtime to beat Phoenix at home last night.

Carmelo Anthony even questioned sarcastically "Do we really have to play tomorrow?" after last night's win over Phoenix. This is clearly a tired team, and one that could find itself looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with the East-leading Indiana Pacers.

New York is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the past three seasons. The Bobcats are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. They have won two of their last three meetings with the Knicks. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to trading away Luol Deng. Instead of giving up after the trade, the Bulls have made a point to prove that they can win without him. They are playing their best basketball of the season leading into this game against Washington.

Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five victories coming by 5 points or more. D.J. Augustin has proven to be an excellent pick-up midseason. He has had seven or more assists in four of his last seven games overall and is really doing a heck of a job running the offense.

The Wizards have not played well of late, losing five of their last seven games overall with all five of those losses coming by 7 points or more. The home team has won each of the last four meetings in this series. The Bulls are 25-10 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Wizards. Washington is a tired team right now as this will be its 5th game in 7 days.

The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on one day of rest. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* Virginia/Duke ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia +7

The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I even underestimated them early, but once they have hit conference play, they have really played tremendous basketball.

Indeed, the Cavaliers are a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in conference play this season. They are not only winning, they are dominating, which is impressive when you consider they have played two of three games on the road. They won at Florida State (62-50) and NC State (76-45), while also thumping Wake Forest (74-51) at home.

Duke has proven to be overrated in conference play, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS. The Blue Devils lost at Notre Dame (77-79) and at Clemson (59-72), but beat lowly Georgia Tech (79-57) at home. Honestly, Duke doesn't have many impressive wins this season. It has beaten UCLA and Michigan, but fallen to Kansas, Arizona, Notre Dame and Clemson. The fact of the matter is that this Duke team just isn't as good as many in years' past.

Virginia played Duke extremely tough last season. It lost 58-61 on the road as a 10.5-point underdog, but got revenge at home with a 73-68 triumph as a 1-point favorite. Virginia is the second-best defensive team in the country, giving up just 55.2 points per game on 36.9% shooting. It is also outrebounding foes 38-29, while Duke is only outrebounding its opponents 34-33. The Blue Devils are simply soft this season.

Virginia is a sensational 8-1 ATS when playing its second game in three days over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Virginia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS win. The Cavaliers are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games. Take Virginia Monday.

15* Chargers/Broncos Divisional Round BAILOUT on UNDER 55

If the first two meetings between the Broncos and Chargers this season are any indication, oddsmakers have inflated this total set in their grudge match in the Divisional Round Sunday. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER folks.

Denver beat San Diego 28-20 on the road on November 10 for 48 combined points. The Broncos were held below their season average with just 397 total yards, while the Chargers were held well below their season average as well with 329 total yards.

The second meeting was even more of a defensive battle. San Diego beat Denver on the road by a final of 27-20 for 47 combined points on December 12. That was the most points that could have been scored considering the Chargers were held to 337 total yards, while the Broncos were limited to a season-low 295 yards.

San Diego knows the formula to beating Denver it to control the ball, which is something it has done remarkably in those two games and all season. It held the ball for 38 minutes in the first meeting, and 39 minutes in the second. The Chargers will implement the same ball-controlled plan that that they did in the first two games to try and keep the ball out or Peyton Manning's hands as much as possible.

The reason the Chargers have been able to control the ball so much down the stretch of the season is a new-found running game. Indeed, they have rushed for 144 or more yards in five straight games, including 196 against a very good Bengals' run defense last week. Philip Rivers no longer has to do it all as the running game has really held up its end of the bargain of late.

San Diego's defense has also improved as the season has gone on. In fact, it has allowed 24 or fewer points in six straight games, including 17 or less in four of those. The Chargers are allowing a mere 16.3 points per game in their last six games overall.

While there's no question that Denver has a potent offense, its defense has really got untracked over the last couple of weeks. The Broncos have allowed an average of just 13.5 points per game in victories over Houston and Oakland to close out the season. They held their own against the Chargers in the first two meetings, and I look for them to limit them to around 300 yards once again in the grudge match.

The Chargers are 7-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season. The UNDER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in Broncos last five vs. AFC West foes. The UNDER is 9-4 in Chargers last 13 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +8

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the country in 2013-14. I look for them to not only cover with ease today, but to likely win this game outright against the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Iowa returned basically everyone from last season's team that made it to the NIT Championship. It is off to a 13-3 start this year with its three losses coming to Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85) and Wisconsin (71-75) all on the road. As you can see, the Hawkeyes were in every game they played.

Ohio State is in a hangover spot here after losing its first game of the season at Michigan State in overtime by a final of 68-72. It will not be completely focuses against Iowa after such a tough loss, and I look for the Hawkeyes to cover with ease because of it.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 33-15 ATS in all games over the last two seasons. Iowa is 16-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Bet Iowa Sunday.

20* 49ers/Panthers NFC No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers are the hottest team in the league that

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 193.5

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off a double-overtime victory over the Miami Heat. That game was tied at 89-89 at the end of regulation for 178 combined points, and I expect this game to see a similar combined total at the end of four quarters.

That effort will really have the Nets worn down. This is an elder team comprised of many players who are past their primes. I believe last night's game will affect them more offensively than it will on the defensive end. Expect their jump shots to come up short the majority of the time.

Brooklyn is expected to be without Deron Williams again tonight, and that really hampers its offense. Shaun Livingston takes his place at point guard, which is an upgrade defensively but certainly a step back offensively.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. Toronto is 19th in pace at 95.3 possessions per game, while Brooklyn is 26th at 93.7 possessions per game. Just like the Nets miss Williams' offense, the Raptors miss Rudy Gay's offense after trading him to Sacramento.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BROOKLYN) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. Brooklyn is 25-8 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Rutgers +14

Rutgers (7-8) is one of the most underrated teams in the country to this point due to its poor record. A closer look at the schedule shows that the Scarlet Knights have been competitive and in every game that they have played.

Indeed, all eight of Rutgers' losses have come by 11 points or less. That includes road losses to UAB (76-79) as a 5-point dog and to Georgia Washington (87-93) as a 10.5-point dog. The Scarlet Knights also lost at home to Seton Hall (71-77), Princeton (73-78) and Louisville (76-83).

That game against the defending national champion Cardinals last time out really showed what the Scarlet Knights are capable of. They covered with ease as a 14.5-point dog, and I believe they give the Bearcats are run for their money here.

I believe Cincinnati remains overvalued due to its 69-53 win at Memphis a week ago when everything went right. I faded the Bearcats with success as a 6.5-point favorite at Houston on Tuesday in a 61-60 win. I'm going to fade them again here as they simply should not be this heavily-favored.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (RUTGERS) - off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS since 1997. Each of the last three meetings between Cincinnati and Rutgers have been decided by 10 points or less.

Rutgers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after playing their last games as an underdog. Cincinnati is 0-10 ATS after playing a road game over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut -11.5

The UConn Huskies have played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country. They have managed to get through at 12-3 despite playing the likes of Maryland, Indiana, Florida, Stanford, Washington, Houston, SMU and Harvard among others.

After losing two of their last three games overall, there's no question that the Huskies will be focused today. They finally get a little bit of a 'break' in their schedule here taking on a UCF team that is 9-4, but one that has hardly played anyone.

All four of UCF's losses this season have come by 11 points or more. The Knights fell at home to both Florida State (68-80) and Louisville (65-90), while also losing at Valparaiso (70-85) and Florida Atlantic (70-85). This will be the Knights' toughest test of the season thus far, and I have no doubt they'll fail miserably while getting beat by 12-plus points.

The Huskies are 7-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game. The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. UConn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 Saturday games. Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +12

The Texas A&M Aggies certainly aren't ecstatic about their 10-4 start this season. However, they were able to right the ship in their conference opener with their best performance of the season in a 69-53 victory over Arkansas.

Now, I believe the Aggies are showing their best value of the season as a double-digit dog at Tennessee. They will want revenge from the multiple-overtime thriller they played against the Vols last season, losing by a final of 85-93.

The Vols are way overvalued right now due to a four-game winning streak coming in. They are coming off a 68-50 blowout win at LSU on National TV on Tuesday, and that result is the biggest reason why this line has been inflated. The Tigers simply played awful in that loss.

Plays against a home team (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 50 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Saints/Seahawks NFC Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +8

The New Orleans Saints finally gotten over the hump while winning an important road game last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. That game wasn

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -2

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best 7-loss team in the country. Their seven losses have all come by 10 points or less to Oklahoma (73-82), Duke (64-74), Drexel (83-85), South Florida (64-66), Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and UCLA (67-75).

As you can see, they have played a brutal schedule to this point and could have one every game that they played. This team is going to be a covering machine in the second half of the season due to its poor start record-wise, leaving it way undervalued.

Unlike Alabama, Georgia (7-6) is every bit as bad as its record would indicate. It has lost six games this season to Georgia Tech, Davidson, Temple, Nebraska, Colorado and George Washington. That slate doesn't come close to stacking up against the competition that Alabama has lost to.

Georgia is coming off a huge 70-64 overtime win at Missouri on Wednesday, setting it up for a big letdown spot here. The Bulldogs were playing for head coach Mark Fox, who recently lost his father. That was a classic 'win one for the gipper' game, but this one is not. The Bulldogs will get back to playing their same, poor basketball.

Alabama is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Georgia. It has won its last two visits to Athens by finals of 52-45 and 74-59. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +7.5

The Memphis Tigers are in a massive letdown spot here. I was all over them as a 10-point underdog at Louisville on Thursday in a 73-67 road victory. Now, I'm going to fade them two days late in a game I don't expect them to show up for.

It's only human nature for a team to lack focus after beating the defending national champs. That will be the problem for the Tigers in this one as they won't get Temple the focus they deserve.

Despite being just 5-8 this season, there's no question that the Owls are a hell of a lot better than their record would indicate. In fact, seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less. They simply haven't been getting it done in close games, and I fully expect this one to go down to the wire, too.

The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games. The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. Temple is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Memphis won't be able to celebrate its Louisville win for long as it gets stunned today by the Owls. Take Temple Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2

The Utah Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now, especially at home. They should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who simply cannot win on the road.

Utah has won three of its last four games overall, including a 112-101 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out on Tuesday. The Jazz have reeled off a season-high four straight home wins, and a big reason for that is they are finally healthy.

Cleveland has lost eight of its last 10 games overall, and it is a woeful 2-15 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 11.0 points per game. The reason the Cavs are getting so much respect here is because of the trade for Luol Deng. However, it's going to take Deng some time to get acclimated to the new system. It's not like he makes them a playoff contender, either.

The Jazz have won six of their last seven meetings with the Cavaliers. The Jazz have won six of their last seven home meetings with Cleveland as well. Dating back further, Utah is 27-7 all-time against Cleveland in Salt Lake City.

Utah is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference home games. The Cavaliers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games. Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Utah is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. NBA Central Division foes. Cleveland is 9-21-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Take the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. I'll gladly back them as a small 3-point road favorite as they look to build on their 23-13 record this season.

Dwight Howard has certainly enjoyed his new home in Houston, averaging 17.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game to return to his former self when he was in Orlando. With Atlanta being without Al Horford for the rest of the season, Howard is in line for a big game tonight.

The Hawks are simply getting too much respect due to their 97-87 win over Indiana last time out. Prior to that game, they have lost four of their previous five games overall. They simply caught the Pacers, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, in a good spot.

Houston has simply owned Atlanta in this series. It is a perfect 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in its last six meetings with the Hawks. All six wins have come by five points or more, including the last two in blowout fashion by finals of 113-84 and 123-104.

Plays on road favorites (HOUSTON) - off two or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9

The Indiana Pacers are clearly one of the best teams in the league. However, I believe they are being overvalued here as a big home favorite against the Washington Wizards. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Indiana has failed to cover the spread in three straight games coming in. A big reason for that is the fact that it is in the midst of a very tough stretch, as this will be its 5th game in 7 days. That is one of the hardest situations for a team to go through.

The Wizards have been very competitive this season as they've quietly gone a respectable 16-17 to position themselves to make the playoffs. They are coming off back-to-back road wins at Charlotte and at New Orleans, and they really want to see where they stack up by going into Indiana and coming away with a victory.

Washington is going to want revenge from its ugly 73-93 loss to Indiana in their first meeting this season. However, that result was an aberration as the Wizards played the Pacers very tough prior to that result. Three of the previous four games were decided by eight points or less, and the only one that wasn't was a 104-85 home victory for the Wizards.

The Wizards are a very healthy 48-31 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +8

The Oregon Ducks are one of the most overrated teams in the country. They opened 13-0 this season against a very easy schedule before suffering a reality check at Colorado over the weekend, falling by a final of 91-100. Oregon is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which included narrow wins over BYU (96-100) and Utah (68-70).

California is undervalued due to suffering four early-season losses, all of which came on the road against quality teams in Syracuse, Dayton, UC-Santa Barbara and Creighton. This is a team that returned four starters from last year and one to watch out for as a sleeper to win the Pac-12. The Bears are off to a good start in conference play, winning 69-62 at Stanford in their opener.

That game against Stanford was last time out, which was one week ago today. That means the Bears have had a full week to prepare for Oregon. Meanwhile, the Ducks played on Sunday, meaning that they have only had three practice days to get ready for California. The edge in rest and preparation clearly favors the Bears in this one.

"They'll have a full week, so we'll see a team that's very well-prepared," Oregon head coach Altman said. "You give Mike a full week, he's going to have them ready to go. So we're going to have to be really sharp."

California is a perfect 11-0 S.U. in its last 11 meetings with Oregon. This has clearly been a match-up of their liking throughout the years, and that was evident again last season as they took all three meetings with the Ducks. This 11-game winning streak dates back to 2009 and cannot be ignored, especially with four starters back from last season. Roll with California Thursday.

20* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should not be favorite on the road at Denver tonight. This Thunder team is only a shell of itself without Russell Westbrook, and that has been evident of late. The Thunder has lost three of their last four games overall, including a home loss to Brooklyn, an da road loss to Utah (101-112).

Denver comes in playing well having won three straight with home victories over Memphis (111-108) and Boston (129-98), as well as a road win over the Lakers (129-98). A big reason for the turnaround is that head coach Brian Shaw has opened up the offense and allowed his players a little more free reign. The result has been an average of 125.7 points and 53.1 percent shooting during this three-game streak.

"Coach (Brian Shaw) let us hoop. He just let us get out and play," forward Kenneth Faried said. "He figured out that this altitude is a killer for teams and the personnel that we have is people who will get out and run, play great defense and it's fun when we do that instead of just calling plays all the time. It has really held and it got the burden off our back of wondering what he wants."

Faried has averaged 18.0 points on 20-of-29 shooting during the win streak after scoring 7.5 per game in his previous 12. Point guard Ty Lawson, meanwhile, has posted a season-best four consecutive double-doubles. Randy Foye has scored in double figures in six straight and has a season-high 23 against Boston on Tuesday, including seven made 3-pointers.

The Nuggets will be out for revenge tonight after having lost each of their first two meetings of the season with the Thunder. How important was Russell Westbrook in those two wins? The star guard averaged 25.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists and clearly was the driving force behind them.

The Nuggets are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Better yet, Denver is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than 60%. The Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win of more than 10 points. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Memphis/Louisville ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Memphis +10

The Louisville Cardinals are being way overvalued here tonight as a double-digit favorite against a very good Memphis team that will be making the NCAA Tournament. A win over Louisville tonight would certainly boost its chances.

I believe the reason this line has been inflated is due to the fact that Memphis is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 53-69 setback at home against Cincinnati. However, I have no doubt that the Tigers were looking ahead to this game, and that they simply overlooked the Bearcats.

Memphis is battle-tested in the early going having already played the likes of Florida, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State (twice) and LSU. It beat Oklahoma State and LSU, while also only losing to Florida by a mere two points. This team has proven that they can play with anyone in the country.

Another reason that the Cardinals are overvalued is that they won the title last year. However, against their two toughest opponents this season, they have been exposed. They lost to North Carolina (84-93) on a neutral court, while also falling at Kentucky (66-73). They honestly do not have a single good win this season as they rest of their opponents have been cupcakes. That's evident by the fact that they have been a double-digit favorite in all but one game this year.

Memphis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals, including 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Louisville. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Memphis Thursday.

15* Boise/SDSU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Boise State +7

The Boise State Broncos get the call tonight as a road underdog to the San Diego State Aztecs. This is a perfect spot bet on the Broncos, who will be the more motivated team tonight, hands down.

San Diego State is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 61-57 triumph at Kansas on Sunday. Rarely does anyone escape Lawrence with a victory, but the Aztecs accomplished that feat. It's only human nature for them to return home and suffer a letdown three days later.

This was a very closely-contested series last year. San Diego State won two of three meetings by finals of 63-62 at home, and 73-67 on a neutral court in the MWC Tournament. Boise State won 69-65 at home.

As you can see, all three meetings were decided by six points or less. Dating back to 2012, the last four meetings have been decided by six or fewer. Boise State, which returns five starters from last year, will be the more motivated team due to losing two of three last season.

The Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. San Diego State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Boise State Wednesday.

20* Suns/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +8

The Phoenix Suns are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as an 8-point underdog to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Somehow, despite their 20-13 start, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

As a result, Phoenix has gone a sensational 23-9 ATS on the season. Sure, it is playing the second of a back-to-back off a loss at Chicago last night, but it had two days off prior to that game so fatigue will not be an issue for this deep team.

It's easy to see why the Suns are showing such good value tonight. Even in their losses they have been competitive. Indeed, the Suns have only lost three of their 33 games by more than eight points this season. That makes for a 30-3 system backing Phoenix pertaining to tonight's 8-point spread.

Phoenix is 14-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 99 or more points per game this season. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Minnesota is 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado -7

I've been riding the Colorado Buffaloes with a lot of success this season, and I'm going to continue to do so tonight as I don't believe the oddsmakers have adjusted enough for how good this team really is.

I was on the Buffaloes as a 3-point favorite against Oregon Sunday in a game they won 100-91 at home to hand the Ducks their first loss. While some will see this as a letdown spot, I don't. Colorado can't afford letdowns if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament after falling just short last year.

This is a team that returned four starters from last season and one that will make some noise in the Big Dance. Their only losses have come to Baylor and Oklahoma State on a neutral court, and they have beaten the likes of Harvard, Kansas and Oregon already. The Buffs outrebound their opponents by nine boards per game, and shoot 12 more free throws than the opposition on average.

Washington State is in shambles right now. It has opened 7-7, including back-to-back blowout road losses to Arizona (25-60) and Arizona State (47-66) to open conference play. It's no surprise that these blowout losses have occurred considering they are without leading scorer DeVonte Lacy (17.7 ppg) for the past two games. He is expected to sit out this one, too. The Cougars' second-leading scorer is Royce Woolridge (9.8 ppg), so they are clearly lost offensively without Lacy.

'We have got to get better offensively," WSU coach Ken Bone said. "It's hard when arguably your best player, definitely your best scorer, is not out there, so again to try to manufacture points in creative ways. It makes it a little bit difficult, to say the least, but you got to keep plugging at it."

The Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a win. The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with Colorado Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +10

The Wisconsin Badgers are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 15-0 start to the season. They have no business being a double-digit favorite against a very good Illinois team tonight, and I'll take advantage and fade them because of it.

Illinois is off to a 13-2 start this season with solid home wins over Indiana and Penn State to open conference play, as well as impressive road wins over Missouri and UNLV. In fact, Illinois' only two losses this season came by a combined 10 points on the road against Georgia Tech (64-67) and Oregon (64-71).

For the most part, Wisconsin has beaten up on an easy schedule. However, in games against its stiffest competition, all have been decided by 10 points or less. The Badgers beat Florida (59-53), Saint Louis (63-57), West Virginia (70-63), Virginia (48-38), Marquette (70-64) and Iowa (75-71) all by 10 points or less.

Really, this team is fortunate to be undefeated right now as it continues to win its close games. This one will go right down to the wire as well. The Fighting Illini are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Illinois Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas +12.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have opened 11-3 and have gotten back to playing team basketball under head coach Rick Barnes. Their only losses have come by BYU, Michigan State and Oklahoma with two of those coming by four points or less.

Texas does have some impressive wins on its resume, most notably its 86-83 victory at North Carolina as a 10.5-point underdog. The Longhorns did lose their Big 12 opener by a final of 85-88 against a very good Oklahoma team, but that result will only have them coming back more hungry tonight.

Oklahoma State is one of the better teams in the land, but it has no business being a double-digit favorite against Texas tonight. I went against the Cowboys as a 5.5-point favorite at Kansas State over the weekend as the Wildcats won outright. I'll gladly fade them again here as they are clearly overvalued.

The Cowboys are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Oklahoma State is 6-16 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the past two seasons. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Texas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Cowboys are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Texas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +11.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are getting way too much respect from the books as a double-digit home favorite over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tonight. I'll take advantage and back the dog in a game that will go right down to the wire.

Wake Forest is off to an 11-3 start this season, which includes a win over North Carolina last time out. Its only losses have come against Kansas, Tennessee and Xavier, which are three very good teams. This is a squad that returned four starters from last year and will be a tough out in the ACC all year.

Virginia is clearly not as good as it is perceived. This team has gone just 10-4 this season with some ugly losses along the way at home against Wisconsin (38-48) and on the road against Tennessee (52-87). It is coming off a 62-50 win at Florida State, but I believe that is why it is overvalued here.

Joe Harris, who led the team with 16.3 points per game last year and is their best player, went out with a concussion against Florida State early. That's why it was impressive that the Cavaliers went on to win that game, but they clearly are not the same team without this guy over the long haul. Harris is listed as doubtful to play tonight. Even if he does play, this spread is inflated, so it would just be an added bonus if he sits.

The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Virginia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Virginia. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 217.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have created expectations for themselves as a high-scoring, dominant team that they cannot live up to. That is certainly reflected in this total tonight as the books have simply set the bar too high between the Blazers and Kings. One look at their season averages shows that.

Portland is averaging 108.7 points per game and giving up 102.6 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 211.3 points. Sacramento is scoring 100.6 points per game and giving up 104.5 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 205.1 points. The total should be set somewhere in between those averages around 208, providing us nearly 10 points of value with tonight's total set of 217.5.

One look at recent meetings between these teams, and it's also easy to see that this number has been inflated. You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last time these teams exceeded this total. Indeed, each of the last 31 meetings between the Kings and Blazers have seen 215 or fewer combined points, making for a perfect 31-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set.

Each of the last 10 meetings have seen 207 or fewer combined points, including a 96-85 road win for Portland in their first meeting this season on November 9. To compare, the oddsmakers set that total at 198.5 points. Now, two months later, they are setting it 19 points higher. You can just see that the value is with the UNDER in this one folks. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.