Winning Sports Picks

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto +1 

The Toronto Raptors are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games overall and coming off a 46-point home win over the Pacers.  And the amount of disrespect they are getting tonight as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks is alarming. 

The Bucks are in a terrible spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the Wizards 137-134 on the road last night as 12.5-point favorites.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest a couple starters. 

Milwaukee is going to have a hard time getting motivated night in and night out here down the stretch because they basically already have the No. 1 seed locked up.  The motivation for the Raptors is obvious as they are trying to fend off the Celtics, Heat and 76ers for the No. 2 seed. 

Toronto is a perfect 12-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 13-27 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.  Toronto is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking.  That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has been awful on the road this season.  It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota.  They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland.  They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State. 

Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa.  They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings. 

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years.  The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate.  There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight. 

The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10.  They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road.  They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well. 

Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in.  The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10.  They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites. 

La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8 

The Utah Jazz were upset at home by both the Spurs and Rockets in a back-to-back situation in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight against the Phoenix Suns, so I know we are going to get an ‘A’ effort from them. 

The Suns are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Two of their wins came by single-digits against the Warriors and Bulls, which may be the two worst teams in the entire NBA right now.  Their seven losses came by an average of 15.1 points per game, so they’ve rarely even been competitive. 

The Jazz simply own the Suns.  Utah is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Phoenix with seven wins by double-digits.  They have won those eight games by an average of a whopping 21.3 points per game.  So laying 8 points here is a real discount. 

The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +8 

The Atlanta Hawks have come out of the All-Star Break going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with home wins over Miami and Dallas, two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they have their sights set on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. 

The 76ers are in a world of hurt right now.  They are without two of their three best players in Ben Simmons (16.7 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.8 RPG) and Tobias Harris (18.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG).  They cannot be 8-point favorites over the Hawks without these two. 

Atlanta is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Philadelphia with its only loss coming by two points, 103-105.  The Hawks were underdogs in all five games and pulled four outright upsets.  They don’t even need to win SU for us to get a win here, they just have to stay within 8 points, which is very likely. 

The Hawks are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Take the Hawks Monday.  

20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals.  The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer. 

Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th. 

Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams.  The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites.  It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Florida State Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2 

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after falling to the Suns 104-112 at home last night.  That followed up a 93-103 home loss to the Hornets.  And now the Wizards will take their turn today. 

The Bulls have lost eight straight games and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are a mash unit right now playing without Markkanen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Hutchison, Kornet and Valentine.  They could get Wendell Carter Jr. back today, but it won’t matter. 

The Wizards continue to show up every night.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, which includes their 126-114 home win over Bulls going into the break.  They want to even the season series after losing the first two meetings to Chicago this season. 

Chicago is 2-13 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 4-17 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last two years.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Bulls are 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games, including 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today.  They are favored for good reason.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  They’ll have their revenge Sunday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa.  They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in.  They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites.  It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today. 

The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.  The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ohio State Sunday. 

20* Celtics/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from their worst loss this season.  They lost 107-139 in Boston on January 20th in a complete no shot.  The Celtics shot 55.9% as a team and 47.1% from 3-point range while making 16 3-pointers.  That’s not going to happen again. 

While the Lakers are fully healthy for the rematch, the Celtics will be without their leader in Kemba Walker, who averages 21.8 points and 5.0 assists per game this season.  I don’t give the Celtics much of a chance of winning this game without Walker. 

The Lakers were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are only 6.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That’s only a 4-point adjustment, which isn’t enough for home-court advantage changing hands.  The Celtics are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Celtics because of it. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

This is a great spot to fade the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hawks, who had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. 

Atlanta has pulled some impressive home upsets and hung with some very good teams at home in the 2nd half of the season.  They are coming off a 129-124 upset win over Miami as 6-point home dogs.  They upset the Clippers as 5-point dogs and the 76ers as 6-point dogs.  They only lost by 5 to Toronto and by 8 to Boston.  In fact, in their last 12 home games, they have either won outright or lost by single-digits in 11 of them. 

Atlanta will also be revenge-minded tonight after losing earlier this month at Dallas 100-123.  The Hawks haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home.  And they get a shot at revenge here in Atlanta just a few weeks later. 

The Hawks own the Mavericks, going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Saturday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +15 

Few teams have come as close to beating San Diego State (26-0) as UNLV did a few weeks back.  The Runnin’ Rebels only lost 67-71 as 7-point home dogs to the Aztecs.  Now they’re highly motivated for revenge and to pull off the shocker in the rematch. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the unbeaten Aztecs, who have also managed to cover five in a row coming in.  Oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be knowing the public is going to continue pounding San Diego State. 

UNLV comes in playing well with three wins in their last four games.  Their only loss was a 3-point setback to Nevada in overtime.  They beat Fresno State at home and Colorado State by 24 at home, while also upsetting New Mexico on the road.  It’s a team that is proving rapidly under one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball in T.J. Otzelberger. 

Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games as a head coach.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UNLV) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with UNLV Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +9.5 

The Washington Huskies have no business being 9.5-point favorites against Cal tonight.  The Huskies are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Asking them to win this game is asking a lot, let alone asking them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to beat us. 

California is improving rapidly as the season goes on.  The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with only two losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They hung tough in a 6-point road loss at Colorado as 16-point dogs and are coming off an upset at Washington State as 6.5-point dogs in a 9-point win. 

California already beat Washington 61-58 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Golden Bears have a huge rest advantage coming into this game.  They come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday while Washington played on Thursday in a 64-72 home loss to Stanford.  The Huskies only have one day in between games here. 

Washington is 0-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games overall.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Golden Bears today.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

This is an awful spot for San Francisco.  The Dons had a golden opportunity to beat Gonzaga on Thursday, leading by 9 at halftime.  But they were dominated in the 2nd half and lost 54-71.  It’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

There’s no way San Francisco is going to be able to get up for Pepperdine today.  They won’t be focused for this game, which will make it tough to cover this lofty 8-point spread. Not to mention, the Dons are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall anyway, so it’s not like they are playing well coming in. 

Pepperdine has been impressive here down the stretch as they are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those losses were by single-digits.  Pepperdine is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. 

The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Pepperdine is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better over the last two years.  Take Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5 

The Syracuse Orange are desperate for a win to get back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have dropped five of their last six against a gauntlet of a schedule with the losses coming to Duke, FSU, Louisville, Clemson and NC State with three of those losses on the road.  Only one of the losses came by double-digits, so they proved they could play with the best. 

Now the Orange get a break in the schedule here with Georgia Tech coming to town.  It’s a Yellow Jackets team that they already beat 97-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It’s a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets because you need to be able to make 3-pointers to be able to beat Syracuse.  Well, Georgia Tech ranks 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting (30.1%).  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -2.5 

The George Washington Colonials are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with some very impressive wins along the way. 

Indeed, the Colonials are coming off two straight upset road wins at George Mason as 6-point dogs and at Duquesne as 10-point dogs.  They also upset Davidson at home and UMass on the road during this stretch.  They should be a bigger favorite over La Salle today. 

La Salle is 3-10 in Atlantic 10 play this season with its only wins coming against Fordham (twice) and St. Joseph’s, which are the two worst teams in the conference.  George Washington is 14-4 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in it last 18 home meetings with La Salle. 

The Explorers are 1-8 ATS in road games off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  The Colonials are 7-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  La Salle is 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take George Washington Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State PK 

The Missouri State Bears are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road at Southern Illinois by 2 at the buzzer and at Bradley in overtime.  Those are two of the best teams in the MVC. 

They also went on the road and won by 13 at Indiana State, crushed Drake by 35 at home and crushed Illinois State by 20 at home.  Now they want revenge from a 58-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 6-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 4th.  With the way they are playing right now, they will get their revenge at home. 

Loyola-Chicago has played very poorly on the road in MVC play this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost by 5 at Northern Iowa, by 5 at Southern Illinois and by 29 at Indiana State.  Their only road win was against the worst team in the MVC in Evansville, and they only won that game by 7 points and failed to cover the number. 

Dana Ford is 10-2 ATS after two straight games where his team was called for 22 or more fouls in all games he has coached.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-13 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 11-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +1 

The Xavier Musketeers are coming up clutch here down the stretch with their NCAA Tournament lives at stake.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming at Butler by 5 as 5.5-point dogs. 

They went on the road and upset Seton Hall by 12 as 9-point dogs, upset DePaul on the road by 8 as 1-point dogs and also beat Providence at home and St. John’s on the road.  Now they’ve love to get revenge on Villanova from a 62-68 road loss in their first meeting this season. 

The Wildcats certainly have been vulnerable here of late.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only wins came against DePaul, Temple and Marquette by 1.  They were upset at home by both Creighton and Seton Hall and also lost on the road at Butler.  This Villanova team isn’t nearly as strong as some of Jay Wright’s teams in recent years. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Xavier is 10-3 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5 

I love the spot for the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday.  They are coming off three straight losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they host Michigan today. 

Purdue is 17-2 SU in Big Ten home games since last season.  The Boilermakers have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country.  And that has been on display this season with wins by 29 over Virginia, by 29 over Michigan State, by 19 over Wisconsin and by 36 over Iowa in four of their most impressive home performances. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Wolverines.  They are coming off a win at Rutgers on Wednesday, which ended a 17-0 start at home for the Scarlet Knights.  It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines here Saturday. 

Purdue wants revenge from a 78-84 (OT) road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  And the Wolverines may not have leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 PPG), who sat out that Rutgers game with an ankle injury.  Michigan only has two days to get ready for Purdue while the Boilermakers have three days to get ready after last playing on Tuesday. 

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.  Matt Painter is 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of Purdue.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 222.5 

The Spurs have been one of the best ‘OVER’ teams in the NBA this season.  They are 33-20-1 to the OVER on the year.  They are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are giving up 116.4 points per game on the road this year. 

The Jazz are a much improved offensive team this season.  They have scored 114 points or more in four straight games and 109 or more in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  But they have allowed 101 or more points in nine of their last 10 games coming in. 

The Spurs beat the Jazz 127-120 at home for 247 combined points in their lone meeting this season on January 29th.  The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  Expect more of the same here tonight. 

The Spurs are 9-0 OVER in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The OVER is 11-5 in Jazz last 16 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* VCU/Saint Louis ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Saint Louis +2 

The Saint Louis Billikens are 18-8 this season and a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a big finish here to make the dance, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it. 

The Billikens should not be home underdogs to the VCU Rams tonight.  Saint Louis is 12-3 at home this season with their only losses coming to Seton Hall, Dayton (by 2 in OT) and Duquesne.  Those are two of the best teams in the country and a bubble team in Duquesne. 

VCU is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, so it is getting way too much respect from the books with how it is playing of late.  The Rams lost by 12 at Rhode Island and by 18 at Richmond in their two road games during this stretch.  They were also upset by George Mason as 14.5-point home favorites and fell to Dayton by 5 at home on Tuesday. 

VCU Is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Billikens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss.  VCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as an underdog.  Take Saint Louis. 

15* Nuggets/Thunder ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the single most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 33-22 SU & 36-19 ATS on the year.  And they continue to lack the respect they deserve as only 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight. 

The Thunder should come out of the All-Star Break highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They know they have lost seven straight to the Nuggets in this series, including a 102-110 road loss in their only meeting this year.  That will be a topic of discussion and will be a huge motivation factor for them tonight. 

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  Take the Thunder Friday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +9.5 

The USC Trojans are playing too well right now to be catching 9.5 points from the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Trojans are 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only lost one of those 11 games by more than 9 points. 

That was a shocking 57-78 home loss to Colorado as 1.5-point favorites on February 1st.  And that place right into my handicap here with the Trojans out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They will simply want this game more tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning four of their last five games overall.  But in their two home games during this stretch, they failed to cover both in a 6-point home win over Cal as 16-point favorites and a 7-point home win over Stanford as 8.5-point favorites. 

USC was able to win and cover its last two games with a 62-56 home win as 2-point favorites over Washington and a 70-51 home win over Washington State as 7-point favorites despite playing without leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG).  Well, Okongwu returns from a concussion tonight to give them a huge boost. 

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in true road games this season.  USC is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Bet USC Thursday. 

20* Nets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Brooklyn +8.5 

The Brooklyn Nets continue to play well without Kyrie Irving, which has been the case all season.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 1 and 6 points on the road.  They are catching too many points against Philadelphia tonight. 

The 76ers had both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in the All-Star game, while the Nets didn’t have anyone and will be the fresher, more motivated team coming out of the break because of it.  Look for them to make a statement and give the 76ers a run for their money tonight. 

The Nets have outscored the 76ers by 3 points total in their three meetings this season despite losing two of the three.  So they’ve proven they can play with them, and I like their chances of staying within 8.5 points tonight. 

Brooklyn is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  Bet the Nets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +5 

The Chicago Bulls are a mess right now due to all their injuries.  They are without Otto Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr, Kris Dunn, Chandler Hutchison and Denzel Valentine.  Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are fully healthy coming out of the All-Star Break. 

It’s no wonder the Bulls were terrible going into the break.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have lost six straight with all six losses coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 12.7 points per game.  They can’t be favored by 5 over the Hornets tonight. 

The Hornets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS against the Bulls this season with their only loss coming by a single point at home.  Charlotte pulled two road upsets over Detroit and Minnesota in its final two games coming into the break.  I simply believe they are the better team right now and should not be catching points, let alone 5 points. 

Chicago is 0-8 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Hornets are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Thursday. 

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  They have won all six of their Big Ten home games by 5 points or more and should easily cover this 2.5-point spread tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Ohio State after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Three of those five wins came at home while the two road wins came at Northwestern and Michigan (by 3).  The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Buckeyes are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Iowa is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.   

The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this year.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still a perfect 17-0 at home this season and coming off a 15-point home win over a very good Illinois team.  I expect them to make easy work of Michigan at home tonight as well. 

The Wolverines are starting to get too much respect from the books again after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them as their two road wins during this stretch were against the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Rutgers will be the more motivated team because they want revenge from a 63-69 loss to Michigan on February 1st just a few weeks ago.  It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside The Rac for the rematch tonight as the Scarlet Knights look to remain unbeaten at home. 

Rutgers are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +9 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Syracuse after losing four of their last five coming in.  But all four losses came by 9 points or less.  They lost at Clemson by 1, at Florida State by 3, at home to NC State by 5 and at home to Duke by 9. 

That’s a brutal schedule and the fact that they hung tough in every game makes me believe they’ll have no problem staying within 9 points of Louisville tonight.  The Orange have won their last two meetings with the Cardinals, winning 69-49 at home and 78-73 on the road as 7-point dogs. 

Louisville isn’t playing well enough to be laying 9 points here.  They are 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Georgia Tech and lost by 15 as 4.5-point favorites at Clemson.  They only beat Virginia by 7 at home and failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites against Wake Forest in a 10-point win. 

The Orange are 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games this season.  Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -4.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and probably the best team in the Big East in my opinion.  Off two tough losses to Creighton (by 5) and Providence (by 3), I fully expect the Pirates to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against Butler. 

Seton Hall went on the road and beat Butler 78-70 in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 41.4% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  They should have no problem covering the 4.5 points at home this time around as we would expect them to be more efficient from the floor. 

It’s clear now that Butler’s 15-1 start was fraudulent.  The Bulldogs have gone 4-6 SU & 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games since.  Their four wins during this stretch all came by 5 points or less, and their six losses have come by an average 11.0 points per game.  They were just upset by Georgetown as 12-point home favorites.  And three of their last four road games have resulted in losses by 13 points or more. 

Butler is 1-10 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 3-14 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Butler is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games off a home loss.  The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall, including 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV -1 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on UNLV here as a short home favorite over Colorado State.  They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five losses coming against the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Runnin’ Rebels barely lost at home to unbeaten San Diego State by 4 and Nevada by 3 in OT.  The other three losses came on the road to Utah State, Nevada and Colorado State.  That road loss to the Rams placed the Runnin’ Rebels in revenge mode tonight as they get them at home this time around. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on a Colorado State team that has gone 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.  They have taken advantage of a soft schedule not having to play San Diego State during this stretch.  And they’ve lost both games against the best team they faced in Utah State. 

UNLV is 19-4 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Colorado State.  The Runnin’ Rebels basically just have to win to cover at home tonight.  They’ll get their revenge on the Rams in this one.  Roll with UNLV Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2.5 

This is a huge game for the LSU Tigers tonight.  They have dropped three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  This stretch followed a 10-game winning streak dating back to non-conference play. 

But all three of those losses came on the road, including an OT loss to Auburn and a 6-point loss at Alabama.  LSU is a dominant 13-1 at home this season and basically just need to win to cover this short number against Kentucky tonight. 

Kentucky has road losses to South Carolina and Auburn in SEC play this season.  They barely survived at home last time out over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites.  And I just don’t think this Kentucky team is as strong as many of the ones we’ve seen in year’s past. 

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS off three of more consecutive wins this season.  LSU is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Bet LSU Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Butler by 4 (OT) and at Villanova by 1. 

Marquette is 12-1 at home this season and should be able to cover this short number against Creighton.  The Golden Eagles will have a huge rest advantage having last played on February 12th while Creighton last played on February 15th.  Basically, Marquette gets five days to prepare for Creighton while the Bluejays only have two. 

No question Creighton is playing well also having won seven of their last eight games overall.  But I just think Marquette is going to want this one more, especially considering they are out for revenge from a loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season on January 1st. 

Creighton is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Marquette is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Marquette Tuesday. 

20* Xavier/St. John’s Big East No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 

The Xavier Musketeers have played themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.  They cannot afford a loss to St. John’s now, and I look for them to handle their business on the road here Monday night. 

Xavier has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They upset Seton Hall by 12 a 9-point dogs, upset DePaul and topped Providence at home.  They only lost by 5 at Butler as 5.5-point dogs. 

St. John’s is 3-9 in Big East play this season with two of its wins against DePaul and the other against Providence.  The Red Storm just lost second-leading scorer Mustafa Heron (13.8 PPG) to an ankle injury and couldn’t afford to lose him. 

Xavier owns St. John’s, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS after covering four of their last five ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Xavier Monday. 

15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -1.5 

Seton Hall should come back motivated for a win after an upset home loss to Creighton on Wednesday.  The good news for the Pirates is that they’ve actually played better on the road than at home, and we are getting them at a tremendous value today. 

Indeed, Seton Hall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  That includes upset wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova.  And they already beat Providence at home this season while shooting 57.8% and holding the Friars to just 35.9% shooting. 

Providence is 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  They have lost at home to both Villanova and Butler this season and don’t stand much of a chance of beating a team that caliber of Seton Hall, which is the best team in the Big East. 

The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.  Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -3.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  We are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3.5-point home favorites over Tennessee today. 

The most remarkable part of this 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run is that the Gamecocks have played six of those 10 games on the road.  All three of their losses came on the highway.  South Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home games upsetting Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog, and crushing Vanderbilt by 26, Missouri by 22 and Texas A&M by 20. 

Now the Gamecocks want revenge from a tough 55-56 road loss at Tennessee on January 11th in their first meeting.  The Vols have a plethora of injuries right now and just aren’t playing well, going 2-4 SU in their last six games overall.  They are without Turnver (12.3 PPG) and could be without both Pons (11.2 PPG) and James (7.8 PPG), who are questionable. 

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +2 

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a 62-71 road loss at Houston on January 15th.  I fully expect them to get their revenge at home this time around considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

SMU is an impressive 13-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight with ranked rival Houston coming to town.  And the Mustangs still have a chance to win the AAC but must knock off the Cougars here. 

Houston came away with a fortunate 62-58 win at South Florida as 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday.  The Cougars trailed most the way until the final minutes.  Their luck runs out tonight at SMU. 

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  SMU is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 Saturday games.  Take SMU Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Richmond -1.5 

Richmond wants revenge from a 68-87 road loss at VCU on January 28th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since that game and I trust the Spiders to get the job done at home tonight in the rematch. 

Richmond is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games.  That includes a 22-point home win over George Washington and a 27-point road win at La Salle.  The Spiders are 10-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Dayton and Saint Louis. 

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games since Richmond.  They lost by 12 at Rhode Island and were upset by George Mason at home as 14.5-point favorites.  Marcus Evans (10.3 PPG) suffered a knee injury in that loss to George Mason and is very questionable to play today. 

The Rams are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.  The Spiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Richmond Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5.5 

The Baylor Bears have won 21 straight games with little to no signs of slowing down.  They are 11-0 at home this season and winning by 15.7 points per game.  They should handle West Virginia tonight. 

The Mountaineers are 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming at Oklahoma State, which may be the worst team in the conference.  They lost by 8 at Texas Tech, by 16 at Kansas State and by 10 at Oklahoma in their last three road games coming in.  I don’t see how they’re supposed to cover here against Baylor with their track record on the road this season. 

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +6 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have lost nine straight coming in and are highly motivated for a victory.  But the Huskers are playing much better than their record would indicate as they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska upset Iowa 76-70 as 8-point home dogs and Purdue 70-56 as 13-point home dogs.  They only lost by 3 at Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs and just took Maryland to the wire in a 70-72 road loss as 17.5-point dogs.  Now they want revenge from a 68-82 road loss at Wisconsin on January 21st.  The Huskers only trailed 38-39 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. 

Wisconsin is 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS in all road games this season.  The Badgers are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue, by 6 at Iowa and by 18 at Minnesota. 

The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +1.5 

Southern Illinois had won seven straight before suffering one of its worst losses of the season at Valparaiso on Wednesday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against defending MVC champ Bradley, and that loss should have them refocused. 

Now Southern Illinois wants revenge from a 48-67 road loss at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  Well, SIU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC.  The Salukis are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season with wins over the likes of Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago, which are arguably the two best teams in the MVC. 

While Southern Illinois is 6-0 SU at home in Missouri Valley play, Bradley is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  That includes very bad losses to St. Joe’s and Miami Ohio out of conference.  And one of their wins was against Evansville, the worst team in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 15-5 SU In its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Salukis are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Braves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.  The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Davidson/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -4 

St. Bonaventure has rebounded from a tough 1-4 start this season.  Interestingly, their lone win was against an NCAA Tournament team in Rutgers.  They have gone 16-4 since and have been flying under the radar in the Atlantic 10 this season. 

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall coming in.  The Bonnies have only played 10 home games compared to 15 road games this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and should be able to handle Davidson tonight. 

Davidson has been overvalued all season.  The Wildcats have been terrible on the road, going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their 14 games played away from home.  That includes 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS records in their last seven true road games with their only win coming at Fordham, which is 1-10 in Atlantic 10 play and one of the worst teams in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Davidson is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bonnies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Bonnies are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday. 

15* Colorado/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5 

This feels like a great spot for Oregon off back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon State.  The Ducks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 12 days and are highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Adding to their motivation is that they are out for revenge from a 65-74 loss at Colorado on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Ducks, who are 12-1 at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning three straight but failing to cover in a 6-point home win over Cal and a 7-point home win over Stanford.  And it’s a tired Colorado team that will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days here tonight. 

Oregon is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 13-38-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Ducks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorites is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. 

The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after being called for 10-plus fewer fouls than their opponents.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after having won three of its last four games.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Ducks.  Take Oregon Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are 16-8 SU & 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They have won three straight including their 21-point win over the Blazers on Tuesday.  They have won six of their last eight with their only losses to Houston and Milwaukee. 

Zion Williamson has given the Pelicans a big boost and fans are turning out to watch him, giving the Pelicans a huge home-court advantage.  They have won three of their last four home games with their only loss to the Bucks and those three wins coming by 15 over Boston, by 28 over Memphis and by 21 over Portland. 

The Thunder appear to be going through the motions and ready for the All-Star Break to get here.  They are coming off back-to-back home losses to the Celtics and Spurs.  And the Thunder are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight due to winning all three meetings with New Orleans this year, including the last two by 3 and 5 points. 

I’ll gladly side with the more motivated home team playing with triple-revenge laying this short number tonight.  New Orleans does not want to get swept by OKC.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  New Orleans is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -1.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are desperate for a win tonight as they sit at 15-8 on the season and on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a ranked Iowa team tonight would go a long way for them. 

Indiana is motivated due to coming in on four straight losses.  The Hoosiers fell at home to both Maryland and Purdue and on the road at Penn State and Ohio State.  I look for a big effort from them to get a much-needed win here.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Iowa has been terrible on the road for years.  Nothing has changed this season as the Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six Big Ten road games with their only win coming at lowly Northwestern.  Indiana is 12-3 SU at home this season. 

The Hawkeyes are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Iowa is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Roll with Indiana Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4 

The Memphis Grizzlies are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams in the NBA to back. They are grossly undervalued and have gone 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. 

The Grizzlies are primed for a big effort tonight at home in their final game prior to the All-Star Break.  They come in on two days’ rest and playing just their 5th game in 12 days.  Memphis has a big home-court edge because they are playing so well in going 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games. 

It’s a bad spot for the Portland Trail Blazers, who lost 117-138 at New Orleans last night after leading that game at halftime.  They won’t have much left in the tank tonight as the Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. 

Portland is 4-14 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in 2 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 10-1 ATS off two consecutive road games this season.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games this season.  Memphis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Portland is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Portland.  Take the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -5 

Bradley just got its best player back on Elijah Childs (14.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) from injury after he missed 12 games.  They also got leading scorer Darrell Brown (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) back from a two-game absence.  The defending MVC champs are going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

Both Childs and Brown sat out their 53-61 loss at Indiana State on January 25th.  Now the Braves have both back and will be out for revenge at home this time around.  That’s good news for a Braves team that is already 13-1 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season and winning by 15.5 points per game on average. 

Indiana State has been great at home but is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The Sycamores’ only two road wins came at Wright State and at Missouri State.  Their seven road losses have come by an average of 11.7 points per game. 

Bradley is 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Indiana State.  The Sycamores are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Braves are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bradley is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2 

Missouri State only lost 69-71 at Drake as 5.5-point dogs.  The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge at home this time around.  They are also motivated off another 2-point loss at Southern Illinois.  The Bears are much better than their 11-14 record would indicate. 

The Drake Bulldogs have been great at home this season with a 12-1 record.  But they are just 2-7 SU in true road games and are underdogs for good reason tonight despite having the much better record than Missouri State. 

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Missouri State is 18-4 SU & 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Drake.  Roll with Missouri State Wednesday. 

20* Bucks/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana ML +105 

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight all by single-digits in games they could have won.  Now they are playing their final game before the All-Star Break and desperately don’t want to go into the break with another defeat. 

The Pacers catch a break tonight catching the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo due to personal reasons.  They have played well at times without the league MVP, but they aren’t good enough to beat the motivated Pacers on the road without him tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Milwaukee) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 46-15 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Indiana is 37-14 SU in its last 51 home meetings with Milwaukee.  The Pacers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games off six or more consecutive losses.  Milwaukee is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks -2.5 

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have actually gone 4-1 SU in their last five games as well despite playing four of those games on the road.  Their only loss came in double-OT at Atlanta. 

Now the Knicks will be playing their final game before the All-Star Break and want to go into the break a winner.  They come in on two days’ rest and will be the much fresher team in this matchup tonight. 

They get to host a Washington Wizards team that will be running on fumes playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Wizards beat the Bulls 126-114 last night and won’t have much left in the tank for the Knicks. 

New York is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  Washington is 6-17 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  New York is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 100 points in its previous game.  Roll with the Knicks Wednesday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -1.5 

West Virginia is favored for good reason tonight.  The Mountaineers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by a whopping 19.5 points per game.  They will improve to 13-0 with a win and cover tonight against their hated rivals in Kansas. 

The Mountaineers want revenge from a 53-60 loss at Kansas as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game 30-24 at halftime before letting it slip away late in the 2nd half.  So they showed they could hang with Kansas on the road, so I have no doubt they can beat them at home this time around. 

West Virginia is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Kansas.  The Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  West Virginia is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4.5 

UConn is coming off two straight upset wins at Tulsa and at home in overtime against Cincinnati.  Their luck runs out tonight on the road against a SMU team that is much their superior tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the American Athletic because they are the furthest team West in the conference.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  That includes a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS record in AAC home games with all five victories by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.2 points per game. 

SMU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with UConn with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.2 points per game.  UConn is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  It will be just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Mustangs tonight.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet SMU Wednesday.  

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -4 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning four straight and covering five straight coming in.  Three of those wins were at home against bad Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt teams.  The only road win came at Clemson without their best player. 

This is a much tougher challenge tonight for the Fighting Irish facing the defending national champs who are starting to play their best basketball of the season.  Virginia has won three of its last four with its only loss coming by 7 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  They beat a very good Florida State team at home. 

Virginia comes in on two days’ rest after playing on Saturday while Notre Dame only has one day to get ready for the Cavaliers after playing on Sunday.  That’s a huge advantage here for the home team that isn’t being factored into the line enough. 

Virginia owns Notre Dame, going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers.  Take Virginia Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3 

The Kansas State Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight and have been victims of a brutal schedule.  That schedule finally eases up tonight as they face arguably the worst team in the conference in Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, so they have been competitive despite the losses.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs, by 9 at WVU as 13.5-point dogs, by 6 at home to Baylor as 7-point dogs and by 10 at Iowa State.  They also won and covered in an 8-point home win over Oklahoma as 2-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Kansas State owns Oklahoma State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while outscoring the Cowboys by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Three of the four wins came by double-digits. 

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.  The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have won five of their last seven with their only losses coming on the road to Houston and at home to Milwaukee.  The beat the Celtics by 15 and Grizzlies by 28 in their other two home games and also won three road games at Indiana, Chicago and Cleveland. 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Blazers, whose two losses came in their last two road games at Denver and Utah by a combined 31 points.  The Blazers are just 10-18 on the road this season. 

New Orleans has won both meetings with Portland this season.  The Pelicans won 115-104 at home and 102-94 on the road.  The Blazers have all kinds of injuries, while the only player that might not play tonight for the Pelicans is Brandon Ingram, who is questionable with an ankle injury after sitting out last game.  It didn’t matter as the Pelicans upset the Pacers 124-117 as 5.5-point road dogs. 

The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pelicans are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.  New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days rest.  The Pelicans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +10 

The Dayton Flyers are 21-2 and the No. 6 ranked team in the country.  With that record and ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  The Flyers should not be double-digit favorites against a very good Rhode Island team tonight. 

We’ve seen the odds catch up to the Flyers as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only won by 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites, won by 14 at home over Fordham as 24-point favorites and only won by 6 at home over Saint Louis as 14-point favorites. 

Rhode Island is the second-best team in the conference.  The Rams are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 games this season.  They have won 10 straight coming in, including a 31-point win at George Washington on Saturday.  They also beat VCU by 12 and by 9 in their two meetings, and they topped Duquesne by 22, which are two of the other best teams in this conference.  They have proven they can hang with a team of Dayton’s caliber. 

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Rhode Island is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Roll with Rhode Island Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 

I have no doubt we’re going to get a big effort from the San Antonio Spurs tonight for a couple different reasons.  They are catching too many points at Denver as a result tonight. 

The Spurs have opened 0-4 on this annual Rodeo Road Trip and are desperate for a victory.  They also want revenge after getting knocked out by the Nuggets in Game 7 of the opening round of the playoffs last year.  This is their first meeting of the season and their first shot at revenge. 

Injuries have definitely been a problem for the Nuggets here of late.  They are without Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr. and Mason Plumlee right now to hurt their depth.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets after they have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Denver is 6-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  San Antonio is 43-23 ATS in its last 66 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 trips to Denver.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6.5 

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost a season-high five straight coming into this game and are desperate for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. 

Victor Oladipo recently returned from injury and the chemistry has been off for the Pacers.  But now that he has five games under his belt, he should start returning to form sooner rather than later.  And the Pacers just got leading scorer TJ Warren (18.2 PPG) back from injury after missing three games.  They are fully healthy as a team for the first time all season. 

The Nets are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight after going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those four wins all came at home against four of the worst teams in the league in the Pistons, Bulls, Suns and Warriors.  They have lost their last three road games to the Pistons, Wizards and Raptors.  So they have played a very soft schedule here of late. 

Indiana owns Brooklyn, going 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Indiana is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* FSU/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +8.5 

Duke is coming off its shocking 98-96 road win over its biggest rival in North Carolina Saturday night.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Blue Devils despite the fact that they are playing a ranked Florida State team. 

The Blue Devils trailed that game against UNC for like 95% of the game and only led in overtime.  The fact that they had to go to OT makes them less fresh.  They gave it all to come back from a double-digit deficit in the final few minutes of regulation, and a 5-point deficit in the final 21 seconds of OT. 

Florida State should still be fresh after crushing Miami 99-81 as 13.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Plus, this is just the 2nd game in 7 days for the Seminoles.  They are the much deeper of these two teams as Leonard Hamilton consistently plays 10-plus players.  That depth is a huge advantage for the Seminoles tonight. 

The Seminoles are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Florida State Monday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson PK 

The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wake Forest and Virginia.  Now they’re back home and hosting Notre Dame in a game they just have to win to cover. 

Clemson is 4-0 in its last four ACC home games with wins over Syracuse, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.  I think we get a big effort from the Tigers here Sunday. 

Notre Dame is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and four straight covers.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Irish as those three wins all came at home against some of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, Georgia Tech and Pitt. 

The Fighting Irish are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve as basically a pick ‘em at home against the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Thunder are 21-6 SU in their last 27 games overall and playing as well as almost anyone. 

The Celtics also come in playing well having won six straight.  But four of those six wins were at home and it has come against a pretty soft schedule with victories over the Hawks (twice), Magic and Warriors.  This is a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boston) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game, after three straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  Take the Thunder Sunday. 

15* Wichita State/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State +5 

I love the spot for the Wichita State Shockers Sunday.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Shockers team coming off two straight losses and one that is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Wichita State wants revenge from a 54-65 home loss to Houston in which they shot just 30.4% from the floor.  I have no doubt the Shockers will want this game more due to the revenge factor and coming off two straight losses by a combined 4 points. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on Houston, which has made backers a lot of money over the last month or so.  The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them with success last time out on Tulane +16.5, and I’ll fade them again Sunday. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Wichita State) - off a conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that failed to cover but win SU as a favorite in their last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Shockers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  Wichita State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wichita State Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -8 

Fading the Timberwolves is the gift that keeps on giving.  They are 0-13 SU & 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They just made a desperate move and traded away Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell, who likely won’t play tonight with a quad injury.  They have also traded away Jeff Teague and Robert Covington, and the players left outside of Karl-Anthony Towns is a mess. 

The Clippers are starting to play up to their potential as they are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins have come by double-digits, and they should have no time putting away Minnesota by doubles tonight as well.  They come in on two days’ rest so they should be fresh and ready to go. 

Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on two days’ rest.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The Clippers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois -3 

Southern Illinois comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a real contender to win the Missouri Valley Conference. 

No team has a bigger home-court advantage in the conference than the Salukis this season.  They are 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS at home and holding opponents to just 56.0 points per game and 38.5% shooting. 

Missouri State is just 3-9 in all games played away from home this season.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming at home against lowly Illinois State.  They are just 5-17 SU in their last 22 trips to Southern Illinois. 

Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Salukis are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks PK 

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have also won three straight with road wins over the Pacers and Cavaliers as well as a home win over the Magic. 

The Knicks are rested and ready to continue their solid play as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is as difficult a situation as you’ll see in the NBA today. 

Detroit is just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Pistons had to go to the wire with the Thunder yesterday in a 101-108 loss.  And they have a plethora of injuries right now with Griffin and Kennard out, plus Rose, Morris and Mykhaiiluk all questionable.  And they just traded away Andre Drummond. 

The Knicks are 15-6 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -2.5 

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic today.  The Owls face a home-and-home situation with rival Florida International here.  They lost 50-69 on Wednesday at FIU as 3-point dogs.  And now they’ll be out for revenge just three days later here and I expect them to get their payback at home this time around. 

Both of these teams have huge home-court advantages.  Florida Atlantic is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by 3 points to UAB.  FIU Is 11-1 at home this year but just 5-7 in all road games.  The Golden Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. 

Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games off an ATS loss.  Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -2 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers today.  They are highly motivated for a win following three straight losses.  And they have had a full week off having last played Saturday, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The three losses are easily explainable as two of them came on the road to Penn State and Ohio State and the other they blew a 6-point lead in the final minute to fall 76-77 to Maryland, which owns the best record in the Big Ten. 

Indiana is 12-2 at home this season.  They host a Purdue team that is just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Ohio and at Northwestern by 3.  They lost at Marquette by 10, at Nebraska by 14, at Illinois by 26, at Michigan by 6, at Maryland by 7 and and Rutgers by 7. 

Purdue is 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Boilermakers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  Purdue only has two days to get ready for the Hoosiers after beating Iowa at home Wednesday.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +13.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from a 76-78 (OT) home loss to Dayton on January 17th.  They get their shot at revenge now catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. This is simply too many points tonight. 

I think the Billikens come in undervalued off their loss to Duquesne on Wednesday as 4.5-point home favorites.  It’s pretty easy to see they were overlooking to Duquesne and looking ahead to this showdown with Dayton.  And it’s worth noting that Duquesne is one of the best teams in the conference and also only lost to Dayton by 4. 

Simply put, it’s time to ’sell high’ on Dayton.  We’re starting to see the Flyers overvalued due to being a Top 10 team and winning 11 straight coming in.  But they failed to cover their last two games winning by just 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites and by 14 at home over a bad Fordham team as 24-point favorites. 

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens will rise to the occasion and give the Flyers a run for their money.  Take Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +8 

Buzz Williams has the Texas A&M Aggies improving rapidly in his first season on the job.  What has been most impressive is how well the Aggies have played on the road in conference play. 

Indeed, the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in SEC road games this season.  They beat Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point dogs, upset Missouri as 10-point dogs and upset Tennessee as 9.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with South Carolina Saturday. 

The Gamecocks only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M after losing 70-84 at Ole Miss on Wednesday.  The Aggies last played on Tuesday and get an extra day of prep for this contest.  I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Gamecocks, who have covered six of their last eight coming in.

Texas A&M is also out for revenge from a 67-81 home loss to South Carolina on January 18th just a few weeks ago.  Well, it was the best shooting game of the season for the Gamecocks as they went 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range, while Texas A&M was just 3-of-14 (21.4%).  It was a complete aberration as the Gamecocks average just 6 made 3’s per game this season and shoot it at a 31.3% clip.  It’s not going to happen again.

South Carolina is 4-15 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a dog overall.  The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Raptors/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +1 

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses and highly motivated for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business at home, where they are 18-7 SU on the season. 

Adding to their motivation is this home-and-home situation after they lost a 118-119 heartbreaker in Toronto Wednesday night.  Not only did they lose, they blew a 19-point lead in that game.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later, and I look for them to take advantage. 

Toronto is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning 12 straight games coming in.  This is a great time to ’sell high’ on them knowing that the Pacers will be the more motivated team in this matchup to avenge that 1-point loss. 

Indiana is 35-21 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 15-1 SU in the last 16 meetings.  And Indiana just has to win to cover tonight.  Take the Pacers Friday. 

20* Maryland/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2 

The Illinois Fighting Illini want revenge from a tough 58-59 loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  I think we are getting Illinois at a tremendous value as only 2-point favorites at home in the rematch. 

Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last month.  The Fighting Illini are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Iowa last time out after they blew a big lead in the first half.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game. 

Illinois also has the rest advantage as they come in on four days’ rest after last playing on Sunday while Maryland is on just two days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  And I have no doubt the Terrapins come in overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS I their last five games overall coming in. 

Maryland is just 2-4 SU in its last six true road games with its only wins coming at lowly Northwestern and at Indiana by 1 after they erased a 6-point deficit in the final minute.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Illinois Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Memphis Grizzlies are the gift that keeps on giving.  The Grizzlies are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with several impressive wins against the league’s top teams alone the way.  And they’re still lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. 

It’s a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-112 loss at Milwaukee last night.  The 76ers won’t be nearly as motivated as they were to face the Bucks, and they won’t have much left in the tank to deal with a Grizzlies team that plays at one of the fastest tempos in the NBA. 

It’s a 76ers team in turmoil.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming by double-digits.  The injury to their best shooter in Josh Richardson hurts, and they are going through some changes with the trades they made to get Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks.  It’s going to take them a while to gel even if those two play tonight. 

Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Memphis is 15-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off an ATS win.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +16.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Tulane Green Wave.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are now catching a whopping 16.5 points at Houston because of it.  They have dropped below .500 for the first time this season and will be highly motivated tonight. 

Houston is coming off a tough 62-64 road loss at Cincinnati, which is one of their biggest challengers to win the AAC this season.  It’s the type of loss that will be hard to get over, and the Cougars may not be 100% focused tonight, especially playing a team that has lost five straight coming in like Tulane. 

The Cougars will be without one of their best players in Dejon Jarreau (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), who does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has been suspended for biting a Cincinnati player.  Quentin Grimes (12.0 PPG) is battling a hip injury, though he is expected to play tonight. 

Tulane is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS after making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Tulane Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off two straight tough losses to the Rockets and Bucks in which they were competitive for four quarters.  Look for them to bounce back tonight against the lowly Chicago Bulls. 

The Pelicans have been playing well for nearly two months.  They are 13-8 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  And now they are as healthy as they have been all season, making them a dangerous team moving forward.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Chicago. 

Few teams have been hit as hard by injuries as the Bulls.  It’s a big reason they are just 6-13 SU & 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Their last three losses have come by 27, 15 and 9 points coming in.  They are without Markkanen, Carter Jr., Porter Jr., Dunn, Gafford and Valentine right now. 

New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The Bulls are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Chicago is 17-37 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Take the Pelicans Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +3 

I really like the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and should not be home underdogs to the Orlando Magic tonight. 

They face a tired, banged-up Magic team that is just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Magic are coming off a 100-116 loss in Boston last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. 

New York is 13-2 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 14-6 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this year.  The Magic are 0-8 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -3 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in against a brutal schedule as they were a dog in all four games and actually did well to win one. 

They lost on the road to Rutgers and Illinois as well as a home to Michigan State.  But they pulled the upset at Ohio State.  Now they are back home here where they are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes are 4-1 home record with wins over Ohio State by 13, Northwestern by 9, Michigan by 8 and Penn State by 6. 

Wisconsin is in an obvious letdown spot off its 64-63 upset home win over Michigan State on Saturday.  The Badgers are 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue and by 6 at Iowa. 

Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 12-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS off a road loss where it scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gophers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.  Take Minnesota Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Dallas Mavericks are without their best player in Luka Doncic (28.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.7 APG) as well as Dwight Powell (9.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG).  They could be without both Seth Curry (10.8 PPG) and JJ Barea (8.9 PPG), who are both questionable tonight. 

I realize the Mavericks have played well without Donic.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.  But I think that has them overvalued here tonight against a Memphis Grizzlies team that I have no doubt is better than them without Doncic, Powell and potentially Curry and Barea. 

The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight following a 14-point home win over the Pistons.  I just love the way this team is playing right now as they continue to be undervalued. 

Memphis is 14-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Mavericks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and have actually fared much better on the road than at home this season.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games off an ATS win.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Louis -4.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season.  The Billikens fell 59-73 at Duquesne as 2.5-point dogs on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Now the Billikens get the Dukes at home this time around. 

Saint Louis is 11-2 at home this season with one of its losses coming to one of the best teams in the country in Dayton by 2 in overtime.  The Billikens are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Duquesne.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  They will protect their home court tonight and get revenge in blowout fashion. 

The Dukes have really fallen off since that win over Saint Louis.  They are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their three wins coming in narrow fashion against three of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10.  They beat George Washington by 5, Fordham by 2 as an 18-point home favorite and La Salle by 2 as a 9.5-point home favorite.  They also lost by 22 at Rhode Island and by 9 at Umass as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Saint Louis is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight road games.  The Dukes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Duquesne is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Saint Louis Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -3.5 

Fading Evansville has been an absolute ATM machine and it will continue to be tonight.  This is an Evansville team with a lot of turmoil with head coach Walter McCarty stepping down mid-season.  And their best player in Deandre Williams (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been out since January 4th with a back injury. 

Evansville has gone 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in Missouri Valley play this season.  Seven of those 10 losses have come by double-digits as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  They don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive tonight either. 

Southern Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now.  The Salukis are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in all five games.  They upset Drake and Illinois State on the road, as well as Drake, Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago at home.  They aren’t about to fall to Evansville tonight after winning all those games against the best teams in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (20% to 40%) over the last three seasons.  Evansville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Evansville is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 Wednesday games.  These six trends combine for a 44-1 system backing the Salukis tonight.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

The Providence Friars want revenge from a tough 74-78 road loss at Creighton as 6-point underdogs on January 18th.  Now they get their shot at revenge just over two weeks later at home this time around in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

Providence has lost three of its last four but was competitive in all three losses.  They only lost by 4 at Creighton, by 9 at Seton Hall and by 4 at home to Villanova.  But they pulled the upset at Butler last time out as 6.5-point dogs, so they are battle-tested. 

Creighton is in a huge letdown spot off its shocking 76-61 win at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs.  The Bluejays wanted revenge from blowing a double-digit lead at Villanova earlier this season.  Now I think they relax here off four straight wins and Providence simply wants this game more. 

Providence is 8-3 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Providence Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +9.5 

The Florida Gators have been consistently overvalued, especially here of late.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Baylor by 11 and Mississippi State by 7 while also narrowly beating lowly Vanderbilt by 6 as 11.5-point road favorites last time out. 

Georgia has gone a solid 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bulldogs just handled Texas A&M 63-48 at home as 6.5-point favorites and now hit the road to take on a Florida team that they have had no problem beating in Gainesville in recent years. 

Indeed, Georgia is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Florida.  That includes a 61-55 win as 11-point dogs and a 72-69 (OT) win as 10-point dogs in their last two trips to Gainesville.  And now they are catching 9.5 points again this year.  Asking Florida to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. 

Florida is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Gators are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Georgia Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Butler FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Butler -2 

Butler wants revenge from a 61-76 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting on January 21st.  They also want to bounce back from an upset home loss to Providence.  It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for both reasons and we’ll get their ‘A’ effort. 

Butler is 10-2 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They face a Villanova team that is overvalued right now after winning seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Wildcats just lost at home 61-76 to Creighton as 6.5-point dogs, so they are far from invincible. 

Villanova is 2-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Butler is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit home loss.  Villanova is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Butler Wednesday. 

15* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats return home highly motivated for a victory off a loss at Auburn over the weekend.  They have responded very well after their last two losses, beating Louisville 78-70 as 1.5-point favorites and winning at Arkansas 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season. 

Now the Wildcats host a Mississippi State team that is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them here as this will be their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The Bulldogs have just two wins in true road games this year. 

Kentucky owns Mississippi State, going 13-0 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings while winning those five games by an average of 18.0 points per game.  The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

20* Bucks/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing very well right now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming at Houston after they blew a 4th quarter lead and finished the game on a 0-for-11 run from 3-point range. 

It’s pretty clear you’re having to pay a tax to back the Milwaukee Bucks due to having the league’s best record at 42-7.  The Bucks have gone just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall and are now laying 7 points on the road to a Pelicans team that is much better than their record would indicate. 

The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New Orleans is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  New Orleans is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan -2 

After dropping four straight, the Michigan Wolverines have bounced back nicely with road wins and covers over Nebraska and Rutgers.  Look for them to continue their recent surge with an easy home win over the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight. 

This is an Ohio State team that has been grossly overvalued in Big Ten play and continues to be tonight.  The Buckeyes are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite being favored in eight of those nine contests.   

Their only wins came at home against Nebraska and Indiana and on the road at Northwestern, the worst team in the Big Ten.  They lost by 14 at Penn State, by 12 at Indiana and by 12 at Maryland in their other three true road games during this stretch. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Michigan Tuesday. 

20* Texas/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +14.5 

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 66-57 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 18th just two weeks ago.  They led The Jayhawks 31-26 at halftime before getting outscored by 14 points after intermission.  They will be highly motivated for revenge because of it. 

You’re really paying a tax to back the Jayhawks because they are ranked No. 3 in the country right now.  And that is especially the case when they play at home.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, beating Texas Tech by 3 as 8.5-point favorites, Tennessee by 6 as 13-point favorites, WVU by 7 as 10-point favorites and losing outright to Baylor by 12 as 7.5-point favorites. 

Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas not once losing by more than 12 points in those five games.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Texas Monday. 

15* Baylor/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +7.5 

No question oddsmakers have had a tough time setting lines for Baylor because they keep covering.  The Bears have opened 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big 12 play as backers continue to get rewarded for betting the No. 1 ranked team in the country. 

But with all that point spread success and No. 1 ranking eventually comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And I think the Bears are finally overvalued here as 7.5-point road favorites at Kansas State.  This is a game I could see them losing outright. 

While we’ll ‘sell high’ on Baylor, we’ll ‘buy low’ on a Kansas State team that is much better than its 9-12 record would indicate.  Eight of those 12 losses have come by single-digits, so the Wildcats have been hard up on their luck in close games.  KenPom has the Wildcats 343rd out of 353 teams in the luck factor this season. 

Kansas State has been through the gauntlet lately and is battle-tested because of it.  The Wildcats are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only blowout loss came at Kansas.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama and by 9 at WVU.  They upset WVU by 16 as 7-point dogs and handled Oklahoma by 8 as 2-point favorites in their only two home games during this stretch.  The Wildcats are 8-3 at home this season. 

Kansas State owns Baylor, going 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Baylor is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Take Kansas State Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets will make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight.  I’m not worried that they lost Kyrie Irving to injury because they aren’t any worse off without him.  They play more as a team without Irving on the court. 

This is definitely a play against the Phoenix Suns, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing in Milwaukee Sunday.  It’s a really banged up Suns team with six players either out or questionable for this game, including Rubio, Baynes and Saric. 

The Nets are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The Suns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Phoenix is 6-18 ATS after tailing by 15 points or more at halftime in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are 21-3 at home this season and should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the 76ers tonight.  Their only three home losses have come to the Celtics, Lakers and Clippers, which are three of the best teams in the NBA. 

I don’t consider the 76ers an elite team because they can’t win on the road.  Philadelphia is 9-17 SU & 9-16-1 ATS in all road games this season.  And you can just imagine the distractions the 76ers are dealing with after spending Super Bowl night in Miami. 

Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss this season.  Miami is 10-1 ATS in home games off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Heat are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Heat Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -4.5 

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad home loss to the New York Knicks as 11-point favorites.  They come back highly motivated for a win here because of it.  And the Pacers are a rested team playing just their 3rd game in 8 days as well. 

The Dallas Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse is the injuries piling up for the Mavericks.  They just recently lost Dwight Powell to a season-ending injury, and now both Luka Doncic and Seth Curry are both out Monday.  The Mavericks do not have the firepower to hang with the Pacers without this trio. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Mavericks.  The Mavericks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS win.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5 

Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl.  And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers are simply the more complete team.  The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season.  The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season.  They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.

The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll.  But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs.  And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup. 

The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round.  Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted.  The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers. 

Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers.  They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans.  But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do. 

The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs.  The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points.  I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense. 

While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season.  They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens.  Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively. 

That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers.  The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers.  They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season. 

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor.  The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season.  The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry.  The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco. 

So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt.  Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead. 

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54

#10 - Jimmy G UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season.  He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game.  And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game. 

#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130) 

Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall.  Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl.  Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert. 

#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110) 

Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season.  He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes. 

#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150) 

Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season.  He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games.  Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible.  I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run. 

#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110) 

Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed.  That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl.  But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles.  Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games 

#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125) 

I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet.  But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game.  UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2) 

#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220) 

We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it.  Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game.  He has made 26 starts under Shanahan.  He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games.  That’s an 81% completion percentage.  Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220. 

#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100) 

Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game.  And the numbers bear it out, too.  Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games.  He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games.  And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game. 

#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans.  The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more.  The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense.  That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB.  SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season.  But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson.  Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt.  He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games.  That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards.  But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER. 

#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155) 

This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet.  There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price.  The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters.  The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters.  And we’ve seen that in the playoffs.  They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games. 

15* Pelicans/Rockets ABC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +5.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and gotten Zion Williamson into the lineup.  The results have been impressive since.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Celtics by 15, the Cavs by 14 and the Grizzlies by 28. 

The Houston Rockets just aren’t playing well at all right now.  They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And they are without their stud center in Clint Capela, who is more important to them than he gets credit for. 

Houston is 2-10 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.  New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Pelicans are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +9.5

This is a great spot to fade the Duquesne Dukes.  They just lost a heartbreaker to a Top 10 opponent in Dayton by a final of 69-73 as 8-point home underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat in time to face La Salle this afternoon.

It has been a string of poor performances for the Dukes outside that effort against Dayton.  Duquesne is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The two wins came against lowly George Washington (by 5) as an 8-point road favorites and Fordham (by 2) as an 18-point home favorite.  They also lost by 9 at UMass as 5.5-point favorites and were crushed by 22 at Rhode Island. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on La Salle, which has lost six straight coming in.  But they were competitive in almost every loss and only lost by 3 at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and by 1 to St. Louis as 3.5-point home dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, so they have proven the can play with teams like Duquesne. 

Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  The Explorers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  La Salle is 6-0 ATS after playing three straight games as an underdog this season.  Duquesne is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with La Salle Sunday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics have rallied since losing three straight and have been playing determined basketball since.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 32-point win over the Lakers, a 24-point win over the Grizzlies and an 8-point win at Miami.  The five wins have come by an average of 18.0 points per game. 

It’s well documented that the Philadelphia 76ers struggle on the road, yet they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the highway.  The 76ers are just 9-16 SU & 9-15-1 ATS in their 25 road games this season.  The Celtics have gone 19-5 SU at home. 

The Celtics will be highly motivated for revenge after losing all three meetings with the 76ers this season.  They want to avoid the sweep in the worst way, and I think they will be as motivated for this game as they have been for any game this season, so I know I’m going to get their best effort here. 

The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  They are coming off two straight road losses at Northern Iowa (OT) and at Southern Illinois, which have been two of the best home teams in the Missouri Valley. 

Now the Ramblers return home highly motivated for a win Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with its last three wins all coming by 16 points or more over Indiana State by 20, Southern Illinois by 16 and Evansville by 34. 

The Ramblers also want revenge from a 51-53 loss to Bradley in the MVC Tournament last year.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Bradley with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +9 

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been a very tough out at home this season and should not be catching 9 points against Arizona given the spot. 

Arizona comes in on one days’ rest after an overtime win at Washington on Thursday.  Washington has had two days’ rest since its home win over Arizona State on Wednesday.  That is a big advantage for the Cougars in this one. 

Washington State is 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Cougars are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games despite being an underdog in all four.  They upset UCLA 79-71 as 2-point dogs, upset Oregon 72-61 as 9-point dogs, upset Oregon State 89-76 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Arizona State 67-65 as 2-point dogs. 

Oddsmakers continue to give the Cougars no respect at home tonight, and we’ll gladly take advantage.  The Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  They don’t deserve this kind of respect.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take Washington State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska off six straight losses.  But the Huskers are rapidly improving under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg despite the losses.  They have been a lot more competitive since they’ve jumped into Big Ten play. 

Indeed, the Huskers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs and Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Indiana to OT on the road, and covered in road losses to NW, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers.  They just aren’t getting blown out. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Penn State after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with huge wins over Ohio State and Indiana at home as well as struggling Michigan on the road.  This is a clear letdown and lookahead spot now with Michigan State on deck Tuesday. 

Nebraska comes in on three days’ rest while Penn State comes in on just two days’ rest.  The Nittany Lions are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +2 

Oregon’s luck will run out today at Stanford.  The Ducks have won four straight with two of those in OT and also a 5-point win at lowly Cal.  Now they face a pissed off Stanford team that will beat them outright. 

The Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight coming in.  They are back home here where they are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  One of those losses was to Kansas while the other was an upset loss to Oregon State last time out.  I just can’t see them dropping two straight at home here. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 2-point win by Oregon as 7-point favorites.  Stanford has pulled the upset in two of their last three home meetings with Oregon.  And this is the best team the Cardinal have had in a long time. 

The Cardinal are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Cardinal are 49-24 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5 

The Texas Longhorns are 8-3 at home this season while the Iowa State Cyclones are just 1-7 in all road games.  It’s a pretty easy choice here with the Longhorns laying just 2.5 points at home Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Texas is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Iowa State. 

The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Iowa State is coming off two straight deflating losses against Top 25 teams in Auburn and Baylor and won’t be able to get up for the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Saturday.