Winning Sports Picks

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +160

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have won nine of their last 10 games overall to get to 32-33 on the season, and they are hungry for a win Saturday to get back to .500 finally.

Tampa Bay comes in struggling having lost five of its last six games overall. It has lost three in a row while scoring a combined 4 runs. Alex Cobb is getting way too much respect from the books in this one. He is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 6 earned runs and 10 base runners over 4 innings of an 8-10 loss to Boston.

Jeremy Guthrie remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA through 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three outings. Cobb is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last two starts against Kansas City, yielding 12 earned runs and 23 hits over 13 2/3 innings.

The Royals are 15-2 in Guthrie's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 9-1 in its last 10 games overall. The Royals are 12-3 in Guthrie's last 15 starts as an underdog. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -119

After dropping four straight, including last night's 8-0 shutout at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Texas Rangers are highly motivated for a victory Saturday. I look for them to roll Toronto today to get back in the win column.

R.A. Dickey is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. The knuckleballer has gone 5-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in his last three.

Toronto is 0-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Texas is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Rangers. Bet Texas Saturday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers -128

The Texas Rangers represent my strongest release over the last 30 days in American League action between two teams from different divisions. After losing Game 1 by a final of 1-3 to the Toronto Blue Jays, I look for the Rangers to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2.

Texas will tee off on Toronto's Mark Buehrle, who is 2-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in six starts away from home in 2013.

Justin Grimm has been nothing short of dominant at home this season. The right-hander has gone 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four home starts, allowing just eight earned runs and one homer over 25 1/3 innings of work in Arlington.

The Blue Jays are 27-58 in their last 85 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 77-34 in their last 111 games following a loss. Texas is 4-1 in Grimm's last 5 starts overall. Bet the Rangers Friday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4.

The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games.

San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance.

Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Mound Mismatch on San Francisco Giants -106

After dropping the first two games of this series to Pittsburgh, the San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep. With the edge they have on the mound, I certainly like their chances.

Despite a slow start, Matt Cain remains one of the best starters in the league. His 5.09 ERA simply doesn't match up with his solid 1.193 WHIP through 13 starts this season, which simply means that he has been unlucky more than anything.

Charlie Morton will be making his first start of the season for Pittsburgh, and he's getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. In five years in the big leagues, Morton has gone 23-45 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.557 WHIP.

Cain is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh. Morton is 1-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Giants Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +101

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as a home underdog to the Boston Red Sox tonight. Baltimore is 37-29 on the season and it is once again overcoming expectations as this team is way better than it gets credit for.

Kevin Gausman has one of the best young arms in the game. While he has struggled in limited action on the road, he pitched a gem in his lone home start this season. Gausman allowed just one earned run and five base runners over six innings of a 4-2 victory against the potent Detroit Tigers on June 2nd.

Felix Doubront is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.615 WHIP through 10 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. Doubront is also 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six road starts.

Boston is 6-19 (-16.8 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 10-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. The Red Sox are 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 38-13 in their last 51 games following a loss. Baltimore is 19-7 in its last 26 meetings with Boston. Roll with the Orioles Thursday.

20* Yankees/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +116

The New York Yankees get the nod as a road underdog to the Oakland A's Wednesday. After dropping Game 1 of this series 4-6, I look for New York to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 tonight.

Phil Hughes gets the ball looking to continue his recent and road domination. Hughes is 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in six road starts this season, and 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in his last three starts.

Daniel Straily is no match for Hughes. He is 3-2 with a 4.67 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four home starts. In his last two starts against Oakland, Hughes has gone 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 15 innings.

New York is 27-14 (+11.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. New York is 5-1 in Hughes' last 6 starts vs. Athletics. Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Washington Nationals +160

You won't get the Washington Nationals at a much better price all season than the one we are getting them at tonight. After losing Game 1 of this series to fall to 31-32 on the season, the Nationals are clearly motivated to get back to .500 with a Game 2 victory Wednesday.

Jorge De La Rosa is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The left-hander has been fortunate to post a 3.38 ERA this season despite a sub-par 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He only has 48 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings, so opposing hitters are putting the ball in play frequently.

De La Rosa also hasn't had much success against Washington in the past. The left-hander has posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in five career starts against the Nationals.

Ross Ohlendorf will be making his first start of the season for the Nationals in this one. His teams are 5-1 in his six career starts against Colorado. The Rockies are 21-42 (-24.8 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 7-15 in its last 22 games following a win. Take the Nationals Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +165

The San Francisco Giants are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly back the defending world champs at this price Wednesday.

Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one due to his hot start in limited action. He has only made six starts this season, and there's no way he can sustain these numbers.

Liriano went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 2009, 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 2010, 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. As you can see, he has posted a 5.09 ERA or worse in three of his last four seasons. He hasn't magically turned his career around in 2013.

Barry Zito has been decent for the Giants this season, going 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts. The left-hander has posted a 3.73 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. The Giants are 21-5 in Zito's last 26 starts. San Francisco is 14-3 in Zito's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 in Zito's last 4 starts vs. Pirates. Roll with San Francisco Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +147

The Seattle Mariners have no business being this heavily favored with Aaron Harang getting the ball. The Houston Astros clearly have the edge on the mound behind Bud Norris, and I'll back them at an excellent price because of it.

Norris has gone 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Seattle, which occurred on April 23rd in a 3-2 Houston victory.

Harang has been atrocious this season, going 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts. He is also 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five home starts. The right-hander has posted a 4.36 ERA in 26 career starts against Houston, and most of those came before he was past his prime.

Norris is 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 8-17 (-16.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 5-1 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Houston Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -138

Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. He is off to another solid start at home this season, going 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in four starts. The Dodgers are 4-0 in those four contests.

Ian Kennedy is having a down year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-hander has gone 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 12 starts, 1-3 with a 6.64 ERA in seven road starts, and 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three outings.

Greinke is 18-1 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 32-4 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in all home games over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2

I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more.

Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort.

In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3.

I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +140

The Washington Nationals are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. While the Nationals are off to a slow start by their standards at 31-31, I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the league.

While Dan Haren is off to a slow start as well, there's no question that he's at least as good as his opposing starter. Jhoulys Chacin has struggled as well, going 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts, including 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in seven home starts.

Haren is 7-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 14 career starts against Colorado, while Chacin is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in three career starts against Washington.

Washington is 16-4 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 44-90 (-40.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 3 seasons. The Rockies are 6-15 in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Nationals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +150

The Kansas City Royals are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Detroit Tigers. They are playing their best baseball of the season coming into this one. They have won six straight overall and are playing with a ton of confidence right now.

Wade Davis has held his own in the past when facing Detroit. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in four career starts against the Tigers.

Max Scherzer has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City. He has faced the Royals once this year, allowing five earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings on April 24th.

Detroit is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 2 runs or less this season. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Take the Royals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +114

After losing Game 1 of this series, and dropping three straight overall, the Los Angeles Angels come in highly motivated for a win tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. I like their chances of stopping the bleeding with the underrated Jason Vargas on the mound.

Vargas continues to outperform oddsmakers' expectations, going 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA through 12 starts this season. What I really like about the left-hander tonight is the fact that he is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.65 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore. He shut out the Orioles 4-0 on May 3rd in his last start against them.

Miguel Gonzalez is getting too much respect from the books in this one. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA in four home starts. He has just been fortunate to get solid run support to this point, but that won't happen against Vargas.

The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta Braves -128

The Atlanta Braves (39-24) should have no problem getting by the San Diego Padres (29-34) tonight given the edge they have on the mound in this one. Julio Teheran is finally starting to pitch like he was in spring training.

Teheran is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The right-hander has gone 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 19 base runners over 21 1/3 innings while striking out 25 batters.

Jason Marquis is clearly overmatched in this one. He has gone 7-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 12 starts, including 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in his last three. In fact, Marquis is 3-5 with a monstrous 7.69 ERA and 1.792 WHIP in nine career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 25-9 (+16.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 55-26 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record. The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Braves Monday.

15* AL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +215

The Houston Astros are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as better than a 2-to-1 underdog to the Seattle Mariners (27-37). The Mariners are coming off a big series against the New York Yankees, setting them up for a letdown spot here.

Seattle managed just 7 total runs in their 4-game home stand against the Yankees. While Hisashi Iwakuma is having a stellar season, he's clearly overvalued here and is not likely to get much run support from his struggling offense.

Dallas Keuchel has been pitching very well of late for Houston, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last two starts while allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners over 13 innings in wins against the Orioles and Angels.

Iwakuma faced Houston on the road on April 23rd, giving up 3 runs and 9 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-3 loss. The Astros are 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Houston is 4-1 in Keuchel's last 5 starts as an underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 47-16 (74.6%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after getting shut out. Roll with the Astros Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -123

The Los Angeles Angels should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Baltimore Orioles with the edge they have on the mound. I look for Los Angeles to win this game in blowout fashion as a result.

Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball for Los Angeles tonight. The right-hander isn't getting the respect he deserve in this one due to being hurt for most of the season to this point. However, Weaver has made the most of it, going 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four starts.

He'll be up against Freddy Garcia, who is 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA through seven starts this season. Weaver is 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in nine career starts against Baltimore.

Weaver is 15-3 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 40-11 in Weaver's last 51 starts as a favorite. Los Angeles is 9-1 in Weaver's last 10 starts vs. AL East opponents. Bet the Angels Monday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat in Game 2 represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA Finals. Knowing that they cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the next three games being played in San Antonio, the Heat will respond with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Miami simply responds following a loss better than any other team in the league. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and January 10th to find the last time that the Heat lost back-to-back games this season.

I look for the Spurs to relax a little knowing that they have three home games coming up following this Game 2 showdown. They won't be able to match the intensity of Lebron James and company in this one.

The Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. The Heat are 14-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +132

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost their last two games by a single run each to the Milwaukee Brewers to drop one game below .500. They will be motivated to get back to the break-even point with a Game 4 victory today to salvage the series.

Considering the Brewers have lost 26 of their last 36 games overall, I like the Phillies' chances in this one. Plus, I believe they have the edge on the mound, which is why they should not be the dog here.

Jonathan Pettibone has gone 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts this season. He'll be up against Kyle Lohse, who is 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three. The Brewers are 1-6 in Lohse's last 7 starts overall.

Milwaukee is a woeful 1-10 in its last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 4-1 in Pettibone's last 5 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Lohse's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the Phillies Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +155

The Los Angeles Angels are showing some of their best value this season as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox Sunday. This is a much more evenly matched game than this line would indicate.

I really like that way that Joe Blanton has been coming on of late. The right-hander has posted a 2.95 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 7 earned runs and 17 base runners over 21 1/3 innings.

Ryan Dempster has struggled all year for Boston, going 3-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 12 starts. In three starts against the Angels in 2012, Dempster went 0-2 with a monstrous 11.19 ERA and 2.341 WHIP. This is clearly one team he cannot figure out.

The Angels are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 4-0 in its last 4 road games with a total set of 9.0-10.5. The Red Sox are 1-4 in Dempster's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 home games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +142

The Texas Rangers (36-25) are showing perhaps their best value of the season Sunday as a big road underdog to the lowly Toronto Blue Jays (27-34). After losing the first two games of this series, there's no question that Texas will be motivated for a win in Game 3 to salvage it.

While Texas starter Justin Grimm hasn't been superb this season, he has posted better numbers than today's opposing starter. Grimm is 5-4 with a 5.13 ERA on the season, while Josh Johnson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the year.

Texas is one of the best teams in the league when bouncing back from a defeat. In fact, the Rangers are 76-32 in their last 108 games following a loss. They are also 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Take the Rangers Sunday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. I'll gladly back the Cubs at this price considering they will be starting one of the most underrated hurlers in the entire league.

Jeff Samardzija has been much better than his 3-6 record would indicate. The right-hander has posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 12 starts with 91 K's over 79 innings this season. Samardzija is 1-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts.

What has really caught my eye is how good this guy has been against today's opposition. Samardzija is 3-1 with a miniscule 0.84 ERA and 0.438 WHIP in four career starts against Pittsburgh. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners over 32 innings in those four starts.

A.J. Burnett is 1-13 (-12.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997. His teams are losing 2.2 to 5.7 in this spot, or by 3.5 runs/game. Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +189

The Miami Marlins get the call today as a massive 2-to-1 road underdog to the New York Mets. New York doesn't have a big edge on the mound like this line would indicate. In fact, I believe the Marlins have the edge here, which is why I'm backing them at an excellent price.

Jose Fernandez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 11 starts this season with 60 strikeouts over 59 1/3 innings. While Matt Harvey has posted solid numbers as well, he sports a 4.19 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in his last three starts and is showing signs of slowing down.

What I really like about this pitching matchup is the head-to-head numbers these two have posted against their opposition in 2013. Fernandez is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in three starts against New York this year, while Harvey is 0-0 with a 4.36 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in two starts against Miami this season.

New York is 10-24 (-16.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Miami is 8-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 4-1 in Fernandez's last 5 starts vs. National League East foes. The Mets are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Marlins Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -109

The Los Angeles Angels are coming around of late having won three of their last four games coming in. They have been helped by the addition of Yaseil Puig to the lineup. He has three homers and nine RBIs in his last four games in place of the injured Matt Kemp.

While I love what Puig is doing right now, I really like the Dodgers tonight due to their edge on the mound. Hyun-Jin Ryu has gone 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in five home starts.

Paul Maholm is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Maholm is also 2-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as a favorite. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Ryu's last 4 home starts. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Dodgers Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants +120

The San Francisco Giants are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. San Francisco comes in rested after having Thursday off, while Arizona finished a 4-game series with St. Louis yesterday.

The reason the Giants are undervalued tonight is because Matt Cain has not been up to par this season. But he's been more unlucky than anything as he has posted a 5.45 ERA despite a 1.211 WHIP through 12 starts this year. With that kind of WHIP, he should have closer to a 3.00 ERA on the season.

Pat Corbin is overvalued due to a fast start this season. He has shown signs of tiring of late, giving up 8 runs, 7 earned, over 12 innings in his last two starts against the lowly Cubs and Padres. I look for the Giants to get after him tonight.

Cain is 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 29 career starts against Arizona. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA in five career starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 50-26 (+24.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. San Francisco is 6-1 in Cain's last 7 starts. The Giants are 12-4 in Cain's last 16 starts as a road underdog. Bet the Giants Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +206

The Houston Astros come in playing their best baseball of the season, yet they are still being treated like one of the worst teams in baseball. In fact, Houston has won seven of its last nine games overall, while Kansas City has lost 22 of its last 30 games.

Jordan Lyles is not getting the respect he deserves here. Lyles has gone 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA in seven starts this season, 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City.

One of those starts came against tonight's starter in James Shield and the Royals on May 22nd of this year. Lyles allowed one earned run over six innings to get the win in a 3-1 victory over the Royals despite being a +190 underdog.

The Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Houston is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Kansas City is 1-5 in Shields' last 6 starts. The Royals are 0-4 in Shields' last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the Astros Friday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -105

Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. I'll gladly back Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers at this price Thursday because of it.

Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in three home starts this season. He'll be up against Tim Hudson, who is 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in six road starts this season for Atlanta.

Greinke is 31-4 (+25.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 17-1 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Roll with the Dodgers Thursday.

Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The most likely game for a road team to steal in the playoffs is Game 1 of a series before adjustments are made. While I believe the Spurs will win Game 1 tonight, I'm going to take the points for some insurance.

San Antonio matches up with the Miami Heat as well as anyone in the league. Greg Popovich is a tremendous head coach, and he'll be sure to double and triple team Lebron James at times to not let him beat them. Miami will have to hit jump shots in Game 1 if it wants any chance to win tonight.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs come into this game well-rested and prepared to face Miami. Meanwhile, the Heat just got done with a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +130

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. They come in playing some of their best baseball of the season having won four straight while scoring at least 6 runs in each contest to get back to .500 on the season at 30-30.

Milwaukee has lost nine of its last 12 coming in and it is clearly distracted due to the Ryan Braun ordeal. Plus, Wily Peralta has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Peralta is 4-6 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.939 WHIP in seven home starts.

Milwaukee is 2-14 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The Brewers are 8-25 in their last 33 overall. The Brewers are 0-9 in their last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Phillies Thursday.

Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+109)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will beat the San Diego Padres by 2-plus runs tonight. As a result, I'll back them on the Run Line and look to earn more bang for our buck.

The Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound in this one with Clayton Kershaw over Jason Marquis. The former Cy Young winner has gone 5-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.916 WHIP through 12 starts this season.

Marquis is 6-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.492 WHIP through 11 starts this season for the Padres. Kershaw is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Diego.

Kershaw is 17-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are winning in this spot by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +138

The Chicago White Sox are showing awesome value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Seattle Mariners Tuesday. Rarely will you ever get Jake Peavy at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage tonight.

Peavy has gone 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. He'll be up against Felix Hernandez, who is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA in his last three starts.

Peavy is 26-11 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. Hernandez is 3-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +159

This is a much more evenly-matched game than the line would indicate. That's why I'm backing Colorado at a great price Tuesday to beat the Cincinnati Reds.

Homer Bailey is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA on the season, and he's getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Juan Nicasio has posted a 3.94 ERA over his last three starts and he's improving as the season progresses.

Bailey is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in five career starts against Colorado. The Reds are 0-4 in Baileys last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Take the Rockies Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +125

Getting Matt Moore at this price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rays at an excellent price today.

Moore is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.081 WHIP through 11 starts this season. Moore is also 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in his last three starts.

Moore has faced the Yankees one in his career, going 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA in that lone start against New York.

Tampa is 25-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Sanchez is 6-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have been an extremely resilient team. They came together with a 91-77 victory in Game 6 in the face of elimination. While the Pacers are a team coming together heading into Game 7, the Heat seem to be falling apart at the seams.

Dwyane Wade wants a bigger role. Chris Bosh wants a bigger role. This has led to some turmoil within their locker room, and I simply like the mindset of the Pacers better heading into this Game 7. Miami has all of the pressure on its shoulders considering it is the favorite to win the title.

Indiana comes in as the underdog with almost no pressure on its shoulders. David West had a 103-degree temperature in Game 6, but he played through it and scored 11 points while grabbing 14 very important rebounds. The team rallied around him, and once again this moment has brought them closer together.

"We've got to do a good job of making sure me and Chris have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game," Wade said. Wade has scored a total of 20 points the past two games. He was 3 of 11 for 10 points in Game 6.

Bosh averaged 16.3 points on 11 shots in the series' first three games. In the three games since, he's averaging just 6.3 points on seven shots a game. Bosh was 1-of-8 shooting for just five points in Saturday's loss.

"We've got guys individually who want to play better," Wade said. "But we've got to try to help each other out in this locker room and not leave it up to the individual to self-will it."

"I mean, we can state the obvious; they're both struggling," Lebron James said of Wade and Bosh. "When you're struggling, the best thing to get is a layup or a dunk. [Wade] missed a couple of them ... Chris is struggling with his shot and him hurting his ankle didn't help."

Indiana is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing a road game this season. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet the Pacers in Game 7 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Trevor Cahill and the Diamondbacks are way undervalued heading into this one. Cahilll has posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through 11 starts this season.

Cahill has posted a 3.06 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through three starts against St. Louis in his career. Lance Lynn is having a solid season for the Cardinals, but he has posted just a 4.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona.

Arizona is 29-10 (+17.9 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Cahill is 15-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet Arizona Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston +104

The Boston Red Sox are showing solid value as a road underdog to the New York Yankees tonight. With their best starter on the mound, I'll gladly back the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz to win Game 3 and the series in this huge rivalry.

Buchholz has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.046 WHIP through 10 starts. The Red Sox are 9-1 in those 10 contest. Buchholz has been at his best on the road, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four starts away from home, allowing 4 earned runs over 28 innings.

Buchholz squared off against Kuroda earlier this season on April 3rd. Buchholz allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings, while Hiroki Kuroda allowed 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 1 1/3 innings before being hit by a line drive. The Red Sox won that contest 7-4 at New York.

The Red Sox are 42-13 in Buchholz's last 55 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall. The Red Sox are 7-0 in Buchholz's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet Boston Sunday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers are not about to give in and let Miami take this series in six games. I look for the Pacers to send this series to Game 7 with a victory tonight to continue their home dominance.

Indiana is 37-12 at home this season. It is winning by 7.9 points/game at home this season. The Pacers have only lost one game at home in the playoffs, going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this postseason. They simply play with a lot of confidence at home.

The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These two trends show how each team has responded recently following a win/loss. Indiana responds in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +130

The Washington Nationals get the nod tonight as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. They are showing awesome value in this one with Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez has put together another solid season to this point, going 3-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.253 WHIP through 11 starts. He'll be up against Tim Hudson, who is 4-4 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Hudson is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Gonzalez is 24-9 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Gonzalez is 32-13 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nationals Saturday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +125

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing awesome value today as a big road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. Getting Zach Greinke at this price is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

While Greinke is off to a slow start this season due to a fluke injury, there's no question he's still one of the best starters in the league, though he's not getting treated like it. He is clearly the better starter in this one.

Jhoulys Chacin is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin is also 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA ERA in five home starts this year.

Greinke is 33-11 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 48-22 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -105

Getting Tampa Bay ace Matt Moore at this kind of price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. That's especially the case considering the Rays are rolling right now having won five straight games coming in. They have scored 5 runs or more in four of the five victories.

Moore is having a Cy Young-caliber season to this point. He has not lost, going 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.098 WHIP through 10 starts in 2013. Moore is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last two starts against the Indians.

Corey Kluber has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Cleveland's starter is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA through six starts in 2013. He is also 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in two home starts this year.

The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 11-1 in Moore's last 12 starts overall. The Indians are 1-8 in Kluber's last 9 home starts. The Indians are 0-6 in Kluber's last 6 starts as a home underdog. Roll with the Rays Friday.

15* MLB Friday Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Dodgers -137

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value as a mediocre favorite against the Colorado Rockies tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for the Dodgers to roll to a blowout road victory in this one.

Former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers. He's having another Cy Young-caliber season, going 5-3 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.872 WHIP through 11 starts. Kershaw pitched 8 shutout innings of an 8-0 victory in his last start against Colorado.

Jon Garland is clearly washed up and far past his prime. He wouldn't start for more than half the teams in this league, but Colorado's rotation is so bad that it has a spot for him. Garland is 3-6 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.614 WHIP through 10 starts this season.

Colorado is 16-46 (-28.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 23-8 in Kershaw's last 31 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Los Angeles is 40-17 in Kershaw's last 57 starts as a favorite. Take the Dodgers Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -106

Rarely ever will you get to back Washington ace Stephen Strasburg at even near even money. I'll take advantage Friday and back Strasburg and the Nationals as they look to bounce back following a two-game losing streak heading in.

Strasburg has been dominant once again in 2013. He has posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.065 WHIP with 71 K's over 72 1/3 innings in 11 starts this season. Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Julio Teheran is the worst starter in the Braves' rotation, and he should not be getting this much respect here. Teheran has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.331 WHIP through nine starts in 2013. He also sports a 4.77 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two career starts against Washington.

Washington is 26-11 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 16-5 in Strasburg's last 21 starts as a road favorite. Atlanta is 1-5 in its last 6 games as an underdog. Bet the Nationals Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +154

The Kansas City Royals are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Royals have been struggling of late, which is why they are clearly undervalued tonight despite having one of the most underrated starters in the league on the mound.

Jeremy Guthrie has gone 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA through 10 starts this season. The right-hander is coming off an incredible 2012 campaign with the Royals, and he has picked up right where he left off last year.

St. Louis should not be this heavily favored considering they are handing the ball to rookie Michael Wacha, who is making his major league debut tonight. He'll be up against a hungry, talented Royals' lineup that will knock him around in his debut.

The Royals are 16-5 in Guthrie's last 21 starts overall. Kansas City is 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 10-3 in Guthrie's last 13 starts as an underdog. Take the Royals Thursday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5

The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight.

Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight.

The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -119

The Detroit Tigers should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in what I believe will be a blowout by the end of the 9th inning in their favor.

Doug Fister is having yet another solid season for the Tigers. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.265 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Fister will mow down a Pittsburgh lineup that is hitting just .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game this season.

Jeff Locke has had a solid season to this point for the Pirates, but he has yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Tigers are hitting .280 and scoring 5.3 runs/game this year, including .287 and 5.6 runs/game against left-handed starters.

The Tigers are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 6-2 in Fister's last 8 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 42-89 in their last 131 interleague games as an underdog. Roll with the Tigers Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners +146

The Seattle Mariners are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Diego Padres tonight. The Padres have no business being this heavily favored with Eric Stults on the mound.

Stults is no ace like this line would indicate. The left-hander is 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.307 WHIP through 10 starts this season. I look for the Mariners to tee off on him and to give Joe Saunders, who have struggled for the most part this season, plenty of run support.

While Saunders hasn't been at his best, he'll relish the opportunity to face a team that he has dominated in the past. Saunders is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in nine career starts against San Diego. In fact, the left-hander has pitched 22 2/3 innings in his last three starts against San Diego without allowing a single earned run!

Seattle is 27-13 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 28-12 (+25.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Take Seattle Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +180

The Kansas City Royals are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Losers of seven straight coming in, there's no question that the Royals are hungry for a victory tonight, especially after losing the first two games of this series.

Luis Mendoza has pitched admirably of late, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals. That's impressive considering he has been up against the Angels twice and the A's, which boast two of the best lineups in baseball. Mendoza is also 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP over four road starts.

Lance Lynn has put together a solid season thus far for St. Louis, but he also got off to a fast start last year before blowing up. Lynn also faced the Royals once last year, giving up 6 earned runs and three homers over 5 1/3 innings. In his lone career start at St. Louis, Mendoza allowed just 2 earned runs over 6 innings of a 5-3 victory in 2012.

Kansas City is a very profitable 32-36 (+19.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are also a solid 27-26 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Royals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -108

The Milwaukee Brewers are hungry for a victory tonight to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. That includes back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Twins in the first two games of this series.

I like Milwaukee's chances of getting back on the winning track given the edge it has on the mound in this one. Marco Estrada has gone 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Sam Deduno has only made one start this season for Minnesota, and it wasn't pretty. He allowed six earned runs and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss at Detroit on May 24th.

The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 road starts. The Twins are 1-11 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last 5 home games overall. The Twins are 0-5 in Deduno's last 5 starts as an underdog. These four trends combine for a 25-2 system backing Milwaukee. Roll with the Brewers Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125)

The Atlanta Braves will throttle the Toronto Blue Jays by two-plus runs Wednesday due to the massive edge they have on the mound. That's why I have elected to play the Run Line and get us some more value for our buck.

Kris Medlen has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past two seasons. He has picked up right where he left off last year, posting a 3.16 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. In fact, Medlen sports a 2.08 ERA and 1.192 WHIP through four home starts this season.

Esmil Rogers is no more than a spot starter in this league. He has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Toronto this year. He will be making his first start of the season tonight. Rogers has faced the Braves once in his career, giving up 7 earned runs over 1 2/3 innings for a massive 37.72 ERA.

Atlanta is 25-6 (+18.7 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Medlen is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are winning by a whopping 3.9 runs/game in this spot. Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +111

The Baltimore Orioles get the nod Tuesday as a road underdog to the Washington Nationals. They will be starting one of the best pitching prospects in baseball tonight, but most of the public doesn't know about Kevin Gausman, which has the Orioles way undervalued tonight.

Selected No. 4 overall in the 2012 draft, Gausman (0-1, 7.20 ERA) compiled a 3.11 ERA while striking out 49 and walking five over eight starts spanning 46 1-3 innings with Double-A Bowie this season. Sure, his MLB debut wasn't great as he gave up four runs over 5 innings in a 6-12 loss to the Blue Jays, but he'll have a much better go of it tonight.

Despite a lackluster line, Gausman, who hit as high as 99 mph on the stadium gun, received high praise from Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. "He had some good composure. It looked like he belonged out there," Gibbons said. "For a debut, I thought he did a heck of a job. It looks like he'll have a bright future - he's got a great arm."

Washington will be giving the ball to 25-year-old Nate Karns, who replaces the injured Ross Detwiler in the rotation. Karns went 4-2 with a 4.60 ERA over nine starts this year for Double-A Harrisburg, and he's nowhere near the prospect that Gausman is.

The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. In fact, the Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Orioles Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +3

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA playoffs in Game 4 tonight. They should not be an underdog at home, and I fully expect them to beat the Miami Heat outright to even this series.

Indiana clearly relaxed a little after taking Game 2 from Miami and earning home-court advantage. Meanwhile, Miami came out in Game 3 wanted to get back its home court. I look for these teams to reverse roles mentally tonight, with the Pacers fighting to get to 2-2, while the Heat realizing that they can lose Game 4 and still have home-court advantage the rest of the way.

The Pacers have been one of the best home teams in the league this season. They are 36-12 at home this year, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the playoffs. Their Game 3 loss to the Heat was their first home setback of the postseason.

Indiana is 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland Indians +138

The Cleveland Indians should not be this big of an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight, let alone an underdog at all. I'll take advantage of this line mistake and back the Indians to bounce back with a Game 2 victory after falling in Game 1, and losing four straight overall coming in.

Cleveland's last win came with Zach McAllister on the mound in a 12-3 triumph at Boston on May 23rd. McAllister is one of the most underrated starters in the league this year, going 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.214 WHIP through nine starts in 2013.

Mat Latos (3.17 ERA) is having a solid season for Cincinnati with slightly worse numbers than McAllister. However, he has struggled of late, posting a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts despite facing light-hitting lineups in the Mets, Marlins and Brewers. Latos has also posted a 7.36 ERA in two career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland is 12-3 (+10.6 Units) against the money line with a rested bullpen that threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-0 in McAllister's last 5 starts overall. Cleveland is 4-0 in McAllister's last 4 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Indians Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies +113

The Philadelphia Phillies have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Boston Red Sox. They should not be an underdog as a result, and I'll gladly back them at this excellent price with one of the best starters in the game on the mound.

Cliff Lee continues to pitch at a Cy Young-caliber level for the Phillies. The left-hander has gone 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.018 WHIP through 10 starts this season, 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in six road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in his last three starts.

Ryan Dempster has proven to be a bad addition to Boston's rotation. The veteran right-hander has gone 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.66 ERA and 2.447 WHIP in his last three.

Lee sports a 3.81 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Red Sox. Dempster has posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.624 WHIP in 17 career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are 11-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 5-0 in Lee's last 5 starts as an underdog. Philadelphia is 18-4 in Lee's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 4 No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely no quit in them. This team is not going to give in even though they are down 3-0. Memphis still believes it has a chance to come back and win this series against the odds. It starts with a home victory in Game 4 tonight.

Before their home loss to the Spurs in Game 3, the Grizzlies were undefeated at home in the playoffs. Their fans will come out and support them like they have all season. Memphis is now 37-10 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

Memphis is 21-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. They are bouncing back to win by 9.4 points/game in this spot. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* Angels/Dodgers Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers +101

Zach Greinke should NEVER be a home underdog. This guy has dominated at home over the last several seasons with a ridiculous winning percentage for his team. I'll gladly back Greinke and the Dodgers tonight at this price.

Greinke is a perfect 19-0 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. His teams are winning by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Greinke is 30-4 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Roll with the Dodgers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +143

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox tonight. They should not be a dog in this contest given the edge they have on the mound.

Tyler Cloyd is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through two starts this season. He is clearly the better starter in this one.

Boston's Alfredo Aceves has been atrocious in limited action this season, and he's not worthy of being a starter in this league. Aceves has posted an 8.20 ERA and 2.032 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings this year, giving up 17 earned runs, 38 base runners and 6 homers.

The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is also 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Aceves' last 5 home starts. Boston is 0-5 in Aceves' last 5 starts as a favorite. These four trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Philadelphia. Take the Phillies Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +110

The Indiana Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series. I'm going to continue to back them in Game 3 tonight as they take a 2-1 series lead on the Miami Heat.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana is 36-11 SU & 28-19 ATS at home this season. The Pacers have not lost in the playoffs at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six playoff games. I'll gladly put my hard-earned money on the Pacers as an underdog at home tonight in Game 3.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games. Indiana is 20-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on the Chicago Cubs +175

Matt Garza is going to dominate the Cincinnati Reds tonight. The Cubs gave up a 2-1 lead late last night, but they're not going to give up the lead that Garza gives them tonight.

Garza was dominant in his first start back with the Cubs. He pitched five shutout innings while striking out five against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 21st.

Garza will be up against Johnny Cueto, who is also returning from injury. He has posted a 4.11 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in his last three starts. He has not been sharp enough of late to warrant being this big of a favorite.

This play falls into a system that is 63-36 (63.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CINCINNATI) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season. Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5

This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover.

Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one.

The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +140

The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Saturday as a big road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Given the edge the Phillies have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog at all.

Jonathan Pettibone remains one of the most underrated starters in the league given this line. The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA through six starts this season, and the Phillies are 5-1 in those contests.

Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The veteran right-hander is clearly past his prime, going 4-5 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.431 WHIP through nine starts this season. He just gave up 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings in his last start at San Diego on May 19th.

Haren is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. His teams are 0-4 in those four contests, so he has never beaten the Phillies. We'll take this 100% never lost trend straight to the bank tonight. Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +118

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing solid value as an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the league this year at 29-19, while Milwaukee is just 19-27. The Pirates have won 11 of their last 14, while the Brewers have lost 16 of their last 21.

With the edge the Pirates have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog. Jeff Locke has gone 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four road starts.

Mike Fiers is no more than a spot starter for Milwaukee. He has only made one start this season, allowing six earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to Arizona. Fiers is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh.

Milwaukee is 4-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The Pirates are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Brewers are 0-4 in Fiers' last 4 home starts. Bet the Pirates Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +165

The Chicago Cubs are showing perhaps their best value of the entire season as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Saturday. Travis Wood is one of the most underrated starters in the league, and that's evident by this ridiculous line.

I believe the Cubs should actually be the favorite with Wood on the mound. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.709 WHIP in three road starts.

Homer Bailey has been solid for Cincinnati as well with a 3.09 ERA on the season. However, Bailey has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Bailey is 8-17 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. The Cubs are 4-1 in Wood's last 5 starts vs. National League Central. opponents. The Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Cubs Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners +114

The Seattle Mariners actually have the edge on the mound tonight, thus they should not be an underdog to the Texas Rangers. Joe Saunders is clearly the better starter in this match-up with Justin Grimm.

Saunders is 3-0 with a miniscule 0.94 ERA and 0.872 WHIP through four home starts in 2013. Grimm is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP through four road starts this season.

Seattle is 27-9 (+27.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Saunders is a very profitable 17-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. Bet the Mariners Friday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Pacers fought hard in Game 1 as they were covering the +8 number for all 53 minutes of that contest. They fell just short, losing on a last-second layup in overtime. This has been a resilient team all year, and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2.

I have no doubt the Pacers are capable of winning this game outright, I'm just taking the points for some insurance. As I stated with my play on Indiana in Game 1, this is simply a tough match-up for the Heat, and a great one for the Pacers.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana realizes it cannot afford to fall down 2-0 if it wants to win this series. That's why I look for it to lay everything on the line in Game 2, which will be enough to cover this lofty spread. According to some comments after the game, it's clear that the Pacers are more inspired by how close they came to winning in Game 1, rather than disappointed. So, I love the mindset of this team coming in.

Indiana is 47-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS following a loss this season, and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays. With the edge they have on the mound, there's no doubt they win in a blowout tonight.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA through nine starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA through three home starts.

The Blue Jays are giving the ball to Sean Nolin for the first time this season. He's at a huge disadvantage tonight going up against Tillman, who has posted a 3.89 ERA and 1.108 WHIP through six starts in 2013.

Toronto is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 6-1 in Tillman's last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 Friday games. Take the Orioles Friday.

20* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +165

The Minnesota Twins are showing their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are a very tired team as their game finished around midnight last night after two long rain delays at Cleveland.

Rick Porcello is the worst starter in Detroit's rotation, so the Tigers are at their most vulnerable with him on the mound. Porcello is 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.389 WHIP through seven starts this season.

Scott Diamond is clearly an underrated starter in this league, especially on the road. Diamond is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP through three road starts this season. The left-hander is also 2-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six career starts against Detroit.

Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. The Tigers are 2-12 in Porcello's last 14 starts with 5 days of rest. The Twins are 5-1 in Diamond's last 6 road starts. Minnesota is 4-0 in Diamond's last 4 starts vs. AL Central opponents. Bet the Twins Thursday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +123

The Baltimore Orioles give the ball to an unfamiliar starter tonight in Kevin Gausman as he makes his MLB debut. That's why I believe they are being undervalued in this contest with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Gausman, the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, will be a household name before long. He was solid in spring training, then went 2-4 with a 3.11 ERA this season with Double-A Bowie. He also has 49 strikeouts compared to only five walks in 46 1/3 innings.

"He has the best stuff and the most consistent control of just about any pitcher that we have in the organization, so we thought employing his strength for our major league team was the way to go," executive vice president Dan Duquette said in matter-of-fact fashion Wednesday.

Gausman will be up against Brandon Morrow, who has been sub-par this season to say the least. The right-hander has gone 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in eight starts for the last-place Blue Jays. Morrow is also 3-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore is a very profitable 61-47 (+26.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 Thursday games. Baltimore is 21-10 in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Orioles Thursday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +8

I've believed that Indiana has been the most underrated team in the entire 2013 playoffs. Once again, the Pacers are undervalued in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Heat as a massive 8-point road underdog.

Miami could not have had an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. It got to face the only team in the playoffs with a losing record in Milwaukee, and it also played a depleted Chicago Bulls team that just simply did not have the talent to be competitive.

I believe that easy path is going to work against the Heat as they won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from Indiana in Game 1. They have basically just had to go through the motions to this point to win games, but that won't be the case against the Pacers.

Plus, Miami is going to be rusty coming into this one. The Heat have not played since beating Chicago 94-91 on May 15th. It had a big layoff after sweeping the Bucks on April 28th, and didn't get to start the Chicago series until May 6th. It would come out rusty and lose to the Bulls 86-93 at home in Game 1.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Indiana is 39-18 ATS after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent since 1996. The Pacers are 46-26 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Bet Indiana Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-120)

The Kansas City Royals are looking to get back on track in this series with the lowly Houston Astros. They had lost four straight after a Game 1 loss, but they bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night.

I like the Royals' chances of a two-plus run triumph once again tonight given the massive edge they have on the mound. James Shields looks to continue his dominance while outdueling Jordan Lyles.

Shields has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP through nine starts this season, including a 1.50 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three. Lyles has gone 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four starts, including 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three home starts.

Houston is 25-86 (-38.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Lyles is 9-32 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is losing by 2.5 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Royals on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +125

The Chicago Cubs get the nod Wednesday at an excellent price against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect here, while Jeff Samardzija is once again being undervalued.

I have no doubt that Samardzija is the better starter in this one folks. Chicago's ace has been solid this season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 64 strikeouts over 56 2/3 innings.

Sure, Liriano has pitched well, but he has only made two starts this season. His 1.64 ERA through those two starts is a little misleading because he was able to get out of trouble. He put plenty of runners on base with his 1.545 WHIP, allowing 17 base runners over 11 innings.

Samardzija owns the Pirates, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.400 WHIP in three starts having never lost. He has allowed just two earned runs and 10 base runners over 25 innings while striking out 23. Roll with the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+119)

Justin Verlander just lost to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Cleveland Indians on May 11th at home by a final of 6-7. I look for Verlander to come back extra motivated tonight to get revenge on Jimenez and company.

Verlander has gone 4-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.296 WHIP through nine starts this season. Jimenez has gone 3-2 with a 5.31 ERA in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 9.72 ERA in four home starts. Jimenez is also 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 career starts against Detroit.

Detroit is 45-28 against the run line (+20.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. I look for Verlander to match Max Scherzer's gem last night en route to a 5-1 Detroit victory. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis Cardinals -137

After losing Game 1 of this series to San Diego 4-2, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 behind ace Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a big edge on the mound in this one.

Wainwright is 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.005 WHIP through nine starts this season, and 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five career starts against San Diego. Edinson Volquez is 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in nine starts this year, and 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis has been remarkable at bouncing back from a loss this season. It has only gone on a losing streak twice, and those were two and three games skids. The Cardinals are 13-3 following a loss in 2013, and 20-6 in their last 26 games following a loss since last year.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is 7-1 in its last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Roll with St. Louis Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.

I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2.

Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1.

The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -127

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, they should be a much heavier favorite in this one.

There have been some rumors surrounding the possible firing of manager Don Mattingly. He didn't necessarily call anyone out, but he did say that he needed Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke to be dominant, and for Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to produce more in the meat of their line-up.

Los Angeles responded well last night with a 3-1 victory over Milwaukee in Game 1 behind a complete game from Kershaw, and a couple of homers from Kemp and Ethier. Now, I fully expect a dominant outing from Zach Greinke tonight.

Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.780 WHIP through three starts this season. He'll be up against Hiram Burgos, who is 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.500 WHIP through five starts this year. The Brewers are just 3-15 in May games this season.

Greinke is 26-8 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 4-16 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Greinke is 41-14 (+21.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* MLB Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -109

Arizona starter Patrick Corbin has been one of the most underrated starters in the league all season. He continues to get overlooked by oddsmakers tonight as only a small favorite over the washed up Jon Garland and the Colorado Rockies.

Corbin has gone 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.069 WHIP over eight starts in 2013, and the Diamondbacks are a perfect 8-0 in those eight contests. The left-hander is also 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over his last three starts.

Jon Garland is far past his prime. The veteran right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three.

Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last two starts against Arizona, allowing three earned runs over 13 2/3 innings of work. Garland is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona. He allowed four runs, three earned, and 10 base runners over 6 innings in a 2-4 loss at Arizona on April 28th.

Corbin is 9-0 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 11-1 in Corbin's last 12 starts overall. Take Arizona Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -132

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound. They have a huge edge on the rubber over Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers in this one.

Kershaw has gone 4-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.871 WHIP through nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his last three. The former Cy Young winning has pitched eight shutout innings in two of his last three starts against Milwaukee.

Yovani Gallardo has completely lost it this season. That's probably a big reason why he got a DWI earlier this year. Gallardo has gone 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.462 WHIP through nine starts in 2013. He is also 1-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 16-2 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 0-6 in its last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. These three trends combine for a 30-2 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +144

The Atlanta Braves have no business being this heavily favored over the Minnesota Twins Monday. The Twins actually have the edge on the mound in this one, yet they are a big road underdog here.

Kevin Correia has been going under the radar all season. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.230 WHIP through eight starts in 2013. Correia is 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta as well.

Julio Teheran had a solid spring training for Atlanta, but he hasn't been able to convert that success into the regular season. Teheran is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.936 WHIP over two home starts.

Correia is a very profitable 36-36 (+17.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games, and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague home games. Roll with the Twins Monday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs.

I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +142

The New York Mets are showing their best value of the season Sunday. The Chicago Cubs shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone, even the Mets.

Dillon Gee is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three career starts against the Cubs. In his last start against Chicago, Gee gave up one earned run over eight innings of a 3-1 victory.

Travis Wood is 6-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 40-76 (-32.7 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -109

Rarely will you ever get Felix Hernandez at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage Sunday as he's only a small favorite over the Cleveland Indians.

This is one of the best starters in the league. Year in and year out, Hernandez goes under the radar because he pitches in Seattle. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA in nine starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA on the road.

Seattle is 9-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. After losing the first two games of this series, I look for the Mariners to bounce back in Game 3. Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5

The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today.

This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game.

New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NL Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +150

The Los Angeles Dodgers should never be this big of an underdog given the talent they have on their team. They are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves.

Year in and year out, Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 10 career starts against Atlanta.

The Dodgers are 19-4 (+16.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Capuano is a very profitable 21-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +150

Great value here with the Milwaukee Brewers as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals don't have the kind of edge on the mound that this line would indicate.

Marco Estrada has been dominant away from hitter-friendly Milwaukee. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.949 WHIP through four road starts in 2013.

The Brewers are 10-1 in Estrada's last 11 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Estrada's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Mound Mismatch GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -113

The Kansas City Royals have a massive edge on the mound over the Oakland A's tonight. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight because of it, and I'll gladly take advantage.

James Shields has proven to be the ace that the Royals hoped for when they signed him this offseason. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in his last three.

Jarrod Parker has been atrocious this season for Oakland. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-3 with a 9.61 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four home starts.

Shield is 5-3 with a 4.08 WHIP in 12 career starts against Oakland. That includes a complete game shutout in his last start against the A's. Parker is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one career start against Kansas City.

The A's are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League Central opponents. Oakland is 0-5 in Parker's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 0-4 in Parker's last 4 starts as a home underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Kansas City. Bet the Royals Friday.

15* MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -130

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez over Burch Smith in this one.

Gonzalez hasn't been as dominant as he was last season, but he's still 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 45 innings. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against San Diego, pitching six shutout innings of a 3-1 victory.

Rookie Burch Smith will get his second turn in the rotation with Clayton Richard on the disabled list. It didn't go well in Smith's major league debut as he allowed six runs and seven base runners before getting pulled after just one inning of work in an 8-7 loss to Tampa Bay.

Gonzalez is 13-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 17-5 in Gonzalez's last 22 road starts. The Nationals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Giants/Rockies UNDER 9.5

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this NL West battle between San Francisco and Colorado. This is an overreaction from yesterday's 8-6 win by the Giants.

The two starters getting the ball tonight have been absolutely dominant. Madison Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in three road starts. Jorge De La Rosa is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two home starts.

Both starters have been dominant against their opposition as well. Bumgarner is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 12 career starts against Colorado with the UNDER going 7-4-1 in those contests. De La Rosa is 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career starts against San Francisco with the UNDER going 8-5 in those games.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs. National League West. The UNDER is 6-1 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +125

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. They come in playing their best baseball of the season having won four of their last five games overall.

Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers because he's new to the league this year. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.212 WHIP with 51 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings in 2013.

The Braves have lost five of their last six coming in. Paul Maholm is getting way too much respect from the books in the early going despite being just 4-4 with a 3.94 ERA on the season.

Maholm gave up six earned runs and 11 base runners over 4 1/3 innings last time out in a 1-10 loss to San Francisco. The left-hander is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 19-3 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -115

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Cliff Lee as this small of a home favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage tonight and back the veteran left-hander against the Cincinnati Reds Friday night.

Lee continues to prove that he's one of the best starters in the game. The former Cy Young winner is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.076 WHIP through eight starts this season. He is coming off an awesome start at Arizona in which he pitched seven shutout innings of a 3-1 Phillies' victory.

Lee is 6-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 12 career starts against Cincinnati. He has been dominant in his last three starts against the Reds, going 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA while allowing just four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

The Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Cincinnati is 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 38-18 in their last 56 meetings with the Reds, including 19-7 in their last 26 home meetings. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -137

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite Thursday over the San Diego Padres giving the massive edge they have on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price tonight.

Washington comes in highly motivated for a victory after losing four of its last five overall. Ace Stephen Strasburg is just the guy to get them back on track. The flame-throwing right-hander has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.176 WHIP through eight starts in 2013.

Edinson Volquez is no match for Strasburg. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.557 WHIP through eight starts this year. Volquez is also 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in three career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 15-5 in Strasburg's last 20 starts as a road favorite. Washington is 20-7 in its last 27 games as a road favorite. The Padres are 0-4 in Volquez's last 4 starts vs. National League East opponents. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Thursday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series.

New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result.

This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (+126)

After getting embarrassed 12-2 by the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own in Game 3 of this series Thursday. With the huge edge they have on the mound, the Yankees won't have a problem winning by two-plus runs tonight.

The ageless Andy Pettite continues to get it done in the big leagues. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.276 WHIP through seven starts in 2013.

New York hitters are licking their chops at the opportunity to face Aaron Harang tonight. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA through five starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA in two road starts.

Pettite is 68-22 (+30.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.2 to 3.8 in this spot, or by an average of 2.4 runs/game. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -140

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome back Zach Greinke from a broken collarbone tonight. It's perfect timing as the Dodgers are starting to finally play well having won three of their last four coming in.

Greinke was off to a hot start before the injury, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two career starts against Washington.

Greinke went 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA in 15 home starts in 2011, 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts in 2012, and he's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one home starts in 2013. He clearly is most comfortable when pitching at home over the last few seasons going a combined 20-2. He'll get a warm welcome from Los Angeles fans tonight. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Rays ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -120

The Tampa Bay Rays get the nod Wednesday as a small home favorite with 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price on the mound. Tampa Bay comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won six in a row while scoring at least 4 runs in each victory.

Price got off to a slow start this season, but he's been solid of late. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three starts while striking out 22 batters over 21 2/3 innings. Price is 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 16 career starts against Boston.

Jon Lester is off to a fast start this season for the Red Sox, but he's overvalued as a result. He's also coming off a complete game shutout, and it's always hard to come back and pitch well after such a solid performance. Lester is 10-10 with a 4.21 ERA in 25 career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Red Sox are 4-22 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 7-20 in Lester's last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 21-7 in its last 28 home games. Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -118

Rarely will you get the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite all season. I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back the home team at an excellent price against the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Phil Hughes has pitched well this season, going 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in four home starts, and 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Hughes is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts against Seattle.

In his last two starts against Seattle, Hughes is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched well this year, but he's 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two career starts against New York, allowing 18 base runners and two homers over 10 innings.

The Yankees are 7-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. New York is 41-15 in Hughes' last 56 home starts. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts overall. Bet New York Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +113

The Milwaukee Brewers should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates given the massive edge they have on the mound tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

Yovani Gallardo is absolutely licking his chops at the opportunity to face Pittsburgh again. Gallardo is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-1 in those contests.

Wandy Rodriquez has not fared well against Milwaukee, going 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 24 career starts. He faced the Brewers once already this season, allowing 7 earned runs and three homers over 3 2/3 innings of a 4-10 loss to Gallardo and company.

Gallardo is 36-11 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. Milwaukee is 60-19 in its last 79 meetings with Pittsburgh. Take the Brewers Wednesday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best.

Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami.

The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.

Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Texas Rangers -108

The Texas Rangers should be a much heavier favorite Tuesday over the Oakland A's. After losing Game 1 of this series, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 given the massive edge they have on the mound.

Derek Holland is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.007 WHIP through seven starts this season. Holland is 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight career starts against Oakland.

Bartolo Colon is well past his prime. He got off to a decent start for Oakland, but has come back down to reality of late. Colon is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings.

This play falls into a system that is 74-39 (65.5%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts.

Texas is 32-8 (+21.1 Units) against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Colon is 0-11 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. His teams are losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on New York Mets +150

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in Game 2 of this series tonight.

St. Louis starter John Gast will be making his major league debut tonight, and he's clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers. While Dillon Gee is off to a slow start for New York, he has had a ton of success in the past against tonight's opponent.

Gee is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in two career starts against the Cardinals. He has allowed just four earned runs and nine hits over 14 innings in those two outings against St. Louis.

Gee is 11-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. New York is a very profitable 47-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Mets Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4.

New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.