Winning Sports Picks

15* California/Arizona ESPN 2 No-Brainer on California +12.5

The books are once again overvaluing the Arizona Wildcats, which has been a common theme here in the second half of the season after their torrid start. The result has been a 3-6 ATS mark in their last nine games overall, which has coincided with the loss of forward Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) for the remainder of the season.

California (18-9) is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and thus it needs this victory. It has played some of its best basketball on the road this season, going 5-4 in true road games with wins over the likes of Stanford (69-62), Oregon (96-83), Oregon State (88-83), Washington State (80-76) and Washington (72-59) within the Pac-12.

The Bears handed the Wildcats one of their two losses with a 60-58 home victory as a 6-point dog back on February 1st. Sure, the Wildcats will be in revenge mode, but asking them to win by 13-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider that the last five meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less, including four of those by 4 points or fewer.

Also, California has not lost to Arizona by more than 10 points in any of the last 15 meetings in this series. That makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bears dating back to 2006 pertaining to tonight's spread of 12.5 points. I'll take all the points I game get in this closely-contested rivalry. Take California Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14) are trying to capture the No. 1 seed in the West. Two straight losses to Miami and the Los Angeles Clippers since the All-Star Break certainly have not helped their cause, and I fully expect them to come back highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it.

I faded the Thunder with success in both of those losses to the Heat and Clippers. Part of my reasoning was that Russell Westbrook had just returned from injury since the All-Star Break, and that they would be out of sync with him back in the lineup. Now, with two games and nearly a week of practice with Westbrook under their belts, they should be in sync tonight.

Helping matters will be the fact that they'll get to play one of the worst teams in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the Thunder come in on two days' rest, the Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the league today. Cleveland is also deflated right now after having lost three straight coming in, which really puts a damper on its chances of making the playoffs. The Cavs are also short-handed right now, playing without three key players in Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters and C.J. Miles.

Mark Brooks is 51-25 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last four against the spread as the coach of Oklahoma City. Brooks is 54-26 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma City. As you can see, this team tends to respond in a big way off a poor performance, and a string of performances where they didn't meet expectations. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -10.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (31-24) currently sit in 9th place in the Western Conference, trailing the Phoenix Suns by 1.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot. As a result, they won't be overlooking anyone the rest of the way as they try and play catch up.

They certainly won't be overlooking the Lakers, who beat them 96-92 back on December 17 as a 2.5-point underdog. However, these are two completely different teams since that meeting. The Grizzlies are finally healthy, while the Lakers are simply playing out the string and playing different lineups to see what they have heading into next year.

Memphis had won four straight prior to an 89-92 loss at Charlotte on Sunday. They have had two days off since that game to rest, working on their mistakes, and prepare for the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Lakers will be playing a second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after getting destroyed 98-118 at Indiana last night. I expect a similar beat down at the hands of the Grizz tonight.

The Grizzlies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference opponents. Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall, which includes three losses by 17-plus points. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (20-7) will be more motivated for a victory tonight than at any other point in the season. They have lost three straight games all by 5 points or less, and you can bet that head coach Jamie Dixon has been letting his players know about it. I look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

They'll have no problem taking care of hapless Boston College (7-20), which will pack it in now that it has won its signature game. It handed an uninspired Syracuse team its first loss last Wednesday, then proceeded to get annihilated 42-69 at Miami on Saturday. The Eagles have no reason to show up tonight, either.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Boston College dating back to 1997. The Panthers have won five straight in this series all by 9 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games when playing a bad team (win percentage between 20% & 40%) after 15-plus games. Boston College is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 1-8 ATS in all home games this season. Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2.5

This will be the final home game for the Evansville Purple Aces. Despite being just 11-18 on the season, I look for them to show a ton of pride tonight and to send out their underrated home fans with one final victory. I look for that pride to show considering they will be trying to avenge one of their worst losses of the season in a 66-94 setback at Drake on January 1.

Evansville has improved greatly as the season has progressed. While it has lost three of its last four games, two came by exactly five points at Indiana State (54-59) and versus Southern Illinois (56-61). The other was a home loss to unbeaten Wichita State (68-84) in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Shockers simply pulled away late.

Drake is coming off a 54-83 road loss at Wichita State, which will have it suffering a hangover effect after playing the top team in the conference. The Bulldogs won't even want to show up tonight, especially having already throttled the Purple Aces once this season. They have seemed to pack it in, losing five of their last seven games overall with their lone victories coming at home during this stretch.

Evansville is a respectable 9-7 at home this season, while Drake is just 4-8 in true road games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late. The home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings. The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons. Drake is 1-7 ATS after a game where it made 78% of its free throws or better this season. Take Evansville Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 194

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these two Eastern Conference playoff contenders Tuesday.

One of my biggest reasons for backing the UNDER is familiarity. These teams literally just played a few days ago on February 21 as Toronto won 98-81 at home for 189 combined points. Just four days later, these teams square off again and are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense more than offense. Plus, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this series.

It's also worth noting that both teams love to play at a slow pace. Toronto ranks 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.6 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks 20th in pace, averaging 95.6 possessions per contest. One of the biggest reasons for Toronto's improvement this season has been its defense. It ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 100.9 points per 100 possessions.

The Raptors are 20-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 21-7 to the UNDER in a home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last five games overall, 12-2 in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and 11-2 in their last 13 home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -6

The St. John's Red Storm have been a huge money maker for me over the last several weeks. I'm going to continue to ride them as I believe they are undervalued tonight as only a 6-point home favorite over Xavier. This one has blowout written all over it.

St. John's (18-10) has gone 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall to put itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Its two losses during this stretch came at Creighton (60-63) as a 12.5-point dog, and at Villanova (54-57) as an 8.5-point dog. Those two teams are considered the top two in the Big East.

Xavier has been falling apart toward the end of the season. It has gone 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall to nearly play itself out of the NCAA Tournament. ALL SIX of those losses have come by 8 points or more, including road losses to Providence (72-81), Villanova (58-81), Marquette (72-81) and Georgetown (52-74).

St. John's has not only been winning, but it has been destroying opponents. Six of its last nine wins have come by double-digits, including home victories over Butler (77-52), Georgetown (82-60) and Marquette (74-59). The Red Storm are now 13-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game. They'll be out for revenge from a 60-70 loss at Xavier in their conference opener back on December 31 when they weren't playing well.

The Red Storm are 8-1 ATS off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds this season. The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of better than 60%. Xavier is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. St. John's is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Red Storm are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents. Bet St. John's Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10.5

The Kansas Jayhawks (21-6) are way overvalued heading into this showdown with the Oklahoma Sooners (20-7). I look for this game to go right down to the wire as the Sooners give the Jayhawks a run for their money, which is something that should come as no surprise considering how competitive they've been all year.

Oklahoma is one of the most underrated teams in the country. All seven of its losses have come by 11 points or less, and six of those came by 8 points or fewer. Even the 11-point loss came against one of the best teams in the land in Michigan State as an 11.5-point dog. The Sooners have had a chance to win in every game they have played.

The reason Kansas is overvalued tonight is that it is coming off an emphatic 85-54 victory over Texas on Saturday. It was out for revenge after losing at Texas earlier this season, so obviously it had 100% focus coming in. Off such a big win, and having already beaten Oklahoma 90-83 on the road this year, the Jayhawks are in a letdown spot tonight.

The Jayhawks shot 54.7% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in that first meeting with the Sooners as everything went their way. Don't expect it to happen again. Plus, Kansas was highly motivated in that game as it was just coming off a home loss to San Diego State. It won't be nearly as motivated this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS versus very good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. This will be the 4th game in 10 days for the Jayhawks, while this will only be the 2nd game in 9 days for the Sooners, giving them a huge edge in rest. Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in a week this season. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Clippers -3

I backed the Los Angeles Clippers +5 in an outright victory at Oklahoma City Sunday. I'll back them again tonight as a mere 3-point road favorite over the New Orleans Pelicans. While some might consider this a letdown spot, I look at it much differently.

The biggest reason I was on the Clippers yesterday is because they had lost two straight coming in and hadn't lost three in a row all season. If they were on an extended winning streak and had just beaten the Thunder, then this would have been a letdown spot. But, considering they've still lost two of their last three, the Clippers will have no problem giving the Pelicans their full attention.

I give the Pelicans a lot of credit for the way they have battled despite devastating injuries to two of their best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg). Both of these players remain out, and the Pelicans have faltered to just a 23-32 record to this point because of it.

The Clippers have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Pelicans, including a 108-95 home victory in their lone meeting this season. Five of those six victories have come by 9 points or more, so the Pelicans have rarely been competitive with the Clippers since Chris Paul joined them. Bet Los Angeles Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -11.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-10) cannot afford any more hiccups if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. That's why they should have 100% focus going onward, and you can expect them to put their best foot forward tonight against TCU, which will be enough to win this game in blowout fashion.

Oklahoma State just got back Marcus Smart from a 3-game suspension over the weekend. The result? How about a dominant 84-62 home victory over Texas Tech, which has given several of the best teams in the Big 12 fits this season. Smart (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.5 spg) had a solid game, posting 16 points, 10 assists and 6 steals in the win.

TCU (9-17) remains winless in Big 12 play, going 0-14 to this point while getting outscored by an average of 16.8 points per game. It hung tough with Iowa State at home Saturday, but ultimately lost 60-71 in deflating fashion. I look for the Horned Frogs to suffer a hangover from that defeat. Five straight and 10 of their 14 Big 12 losses this season have come by double-digits, including a 50-82 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

It's worth noting that TCU is expected to be without its second-best player in Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who sat out the Iowa State game Saturday with a knee injury. He is doubtful to return just two days later against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 20% & 40% over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS as a favorite over 10 or more points over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Oklahoma State Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence PK

The Providence Friars (17-10) are the definition of a bubble team when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. This team is one of the most underrated squads in the country with four starters back from last season, and one that deserves to get into the big dance if the season were to end today.

However, after losing four of their last five games overall, getting into the big dance has become a question mark. Those four losses came to St. John's, Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova, who all have a good shot at getting into the big dance, so it's not like they are getting beat by inferior competition.

Now, the Friars have an excellent chance to get back on track against Butler (12-14), which is just 2-12 in Big East play and clearly a team that is rebuilding since the loss of head coach Brad Stevens. The Bulldogs have lost five straight coming into this one, including a home loss to Xavier (50-64) and a road loss to St. John's (52-77) last time out.

Providence beat Butler 65-56 in the first meeting, outrebounding the Bulldogs 37-22 in the process. The Friars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Butler is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Providence Sunday.

15* Clippers/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +5

The Los Angeles Clippers are going to be highly motivated for a victory this afternoon. There's no question they will be putting their best foot forward, which is why they are showing such great value as an underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder here.

The Clippers have lost back-to-back games to the Spurs and Grizzlies out of the All-Star Break. Only four times all season have they lost two in a row, and not once have they lost three straight. So, this just goes to show how resilient this team is, and how good Doc Rivers is at getting his players to respond.

Oklahoma City is coming off a deflating 81-103 home loss to Miami last time out. It's always tough to come back and play the next game after playing the defending world champs. I look for the Thunder to suffer a hangover effect, and for them to continue to struggle with trying to get Russell Westbrook involved in the offense as he just returned from injury for the Heat game.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS off a road loss this year. The Clippers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall. Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Clippers Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans are going to be out for revenge from their 75-80 home loss to Michigan back on January 25 in their first meeting of the season. They were without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg) for that contest, but he's healthy now and ready to help his team get payback.

Michigan State has played its best basketball on the road this season. It is a sensational 8-1 straight up in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.7 points per game. That includes wins at Texas, Indiana and Iowa.

I knew Michigan would be overvalued toward the end of the season after a hot start to Big Ten play. That has been the case as it has lost three of its last five games all by double-digits to Indiana (52-63), Iowa (67-85) and Wisconsin (62-75). This team simply isn't that good.

The Spartans are 8-0 ATS versus teams who forced 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing a good team (win percentage between 60% & 80%) this season. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in all road games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Spartans. Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks. We have the best defensive team in the league up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. The result will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, putting up a mere 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks also like to play at a slow tempo, ranking 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.

Taking a look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 181 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, averaging a combined 178.7 points per game in those three contests. That's roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Note: this total is 189.5 or less in most places. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pacers last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies represent my favorite play in an East vs. West matchup for the entire month of February. I'll gladly back them as a small road favorite over the Charlotte Bobcats Saturday night.

Memphis (31-23) trails Dallas by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means that the Grizzlies cannot afford to overlook anyone from here on out if they want to make the postseason.

Charlotte (26-30) is getting a lot of love from the books and the betting public because of its improvement this season. However, this team is not even on the same playing field as Memphis, which is a much better basketball team, and that will show in the final score tonight.

My biggest reason for fading the Bobcats is the fact that this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially for the short-handed Bobcats, who just recently traded away Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, including a 94-75 victory in their most recent meeting. Memphis is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is 2-17 ATS when playing its 4th game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -5

The Oklahoma Sooners (19-7) are showing tremendous value as only a 5-point home favorite over Kansas State Saturday. They'll be out for revenge from a 66-72 loss at Kansas State on January 14 in their first meeting of the season.

I certainly like the Sooners' chances of getting payback in blowout fashion given how well they have played at home. They are 11-3 at home this season with wins over the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor.

Kansas State has been dominant at home, but just it is just 1-5 in true road games, including losses to Kansas (60-86), Iowa State (75-81), West Virginia (71-81) and Baylor (73-87) all by 6 points or more.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on LSU +11.5

The LSU Tigers (16-9) already beat the Kentucky Wildcats once this season with an 87-82 home victory on January 28. Sure, the Wildcats will be out for revenge, but the Tigers need this game more as they are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

This is simply a good matchup for LSU. Kentucky has been winning by dominating teams on the glass, but LSU doesn't allow it. The Wildcats are averaging 13 offensive rebounds per game and outrebounding opponents by 10 boards per game. The Tigers are averaging 12 offensive boards per contest and outrebounding foes by 5 boards per game.

LSU has played Kentucky very tough in each of their last three meetings. All three meetings were decided by single-digits with the Wildcats winning at home 60-51 and 75-70, while the Tigers obviously won at home 87-82 earlier this season. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.

LSU is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 games off a home win against a conference opponent. Kentucky is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 Saturday home games. The Wildcats are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kentucky. The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take LSU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +13

The Iowa State Cyclones just have a way of playing to the level of their competitive. I fully expect that to be the case this afternoon as they fail to cover this lofty spread against TCU Saturday.

Iowa State is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Nine of those 11 games were decided by 11 points or less, which just shows you how they have a knack of playing in close games no matter the competition.

One of the exceptions was an 84-69 home victory over TCU on February 8. That placed TCU in revenge mode just two weeks later at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, and they're hungry for their first Big 12 victory.

Iowa State is in a big letdown spot off a huge win over Texas on Tuesday. The Cyclones are 1-8 ATS versus good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better from the line this season. Iowa State is 1-10 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games. Roll with TCU Saturday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's +8.5

The St. John's Red Storm represent my strongest play in the Big East for the entire 2013-14 season. I'll gladly back them as a big underdog as this team continue to go under the radar against Villanova Saturday.

St. John's (18-9) has won nine of its last 10 games overall to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament. It is playing as well as anyone in the country, and its only loss during this stretch came at Creighton (60-63) as a 12.5-point dog on a last-second 3-pointer.

The Red Storm will be out for revenge from their 67-74 home loss to Villanova back on January 11. This is a completely different team since that defeat, and that will show on the court today.

St. John's is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +14

The North Carolina Tar Heels are in a massive letdown spot Saturday. They are coming off a win against their biggest rivals in Duke on Thursday, and it's only human nature for them to not show up two days later against an ACC bottom feeder.

Wake Forest (14-12) has lost six in a row heading into this one, and therefore is undervalued. UNC has won eight straight heading into this one, and therefore is overvalued. Wake has had three days off to prepare for this game.

The Demon Deacons beat the Tar Heels 73-67 at home earlier this season in their first meeting on January 5. I have no doubt they can stay within 14 points in the rematch, especially given the tough situation for UNC having to play its 3rd game in 4 days.

Roy Williams is 6-16 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite in all games he has coached. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. The Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in North Carolina. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Blazers OVER 202

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. I'll take the free money and back the OVER tonight as both teams likely top the 100-point mark in this one.

Portland is one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. It is averaging 107.9 points per game while also ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency. However, the Blazers are giving up 103.9 points per game while ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency.

The Jazz haven't been the best offensive team this season, but should get going tonight against this poor Blazers' defense. The Jazz are giving up 100.3 points per game this season, including 101.0 points per game on the road on 47.5% shooting.

Each of the last five meetings in this series have seen 199 or more points. The last time these teams met in Portland on December 6, they combined for 228 points. Playing at home, the Blazers will control the tempo, and they like to get up and down.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Portland. The OVER is 30-14-1 in Blazers last 45 home games. The OVER is 17-8-1 in Blazers last 26 vs. Western Conference. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Asking the Toronto Raptors to beat them by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much. I'll side with the road underdog showing tremendous value because of it.

Cleveland is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes road wins over Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia, as well as a home win against Memphis during this stretch. This team is hungry to make the playoffs as it trails the Bobcats by just 3 games for the 8th and final spot in the East.

Toronto has been an underrated team for most of the season. However, it is clearly being overvalued here as such a massive home favorite. Four of the last six meetings between these teams were decided by 8 points or less, and the Cavaliers have only been beaten by more than 8 points in one of their last six meetings with the Raptors.

The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Toronto. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -3

The New York Knicks (21-33) have to make a run now if they want to make the NBA playoffs. They trail the Charlotte Bobcats by 3.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They certainly cannot afford to lose to the Magic tonight.

After a hard-fought 93-98 loss at Memphis in their first game back from the break, the Knicks went into New Orleans and came away with a gutty 98-91 victory. I look for them to go into hapless Orlando (16-40) and to win going away tonight.

This has been a one-sided series of late to say the least. Indeed, the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Magic. They have won all eight meetings by 5 points or more, including six of them by double-digits.

The Knicks are 27-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Magic are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or less turnovers. Take the Knicks Friday.

15* Gonzaga/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -2.5

It's like night and day for the BYU Cougars home and away. If you just look at its 6-9 road record, you would think that this team isn't any good. But the Cougars are 18-10 on the season and looking to make the NCAA Tournament thanks to their home dominance.

Indeed, the Cougars are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per game. Their only loss came in overtime to Iowa State, which is currently ranked No. 17 in the country. BYU has had one of the best home-court advantages over the past decade and that continues to be true.

All four of Gonzaga's losses this season have come on the road. It has fallen to Memphis (54-60) and Portland (73-82) away from home since the turn of the calendar year. Given the importance of this game for the Cougars, I look for them to get it done at home. They also come in with confidence having won five of their last six, including two victories over a very good St. Mary's team both home and away.

Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in road games after two consecutive ATS covers over the last three seasons. BYU is 50-27 ATS in its last 77 home games after having won three of its last four games. The Cougars are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games off a win by 6 points or less. The home team is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Take BYU Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +14

The USC Trojans certainly haven't had the season they had hoped coming into the year. As a result, they are undervalued at this point of the season, and that shows with this line as they are a 14-point road dog to Stanford when they shouldn't be catching nearly this many points.

USC will be out for revenge from a 71-79 (OT) home loss to Stanford as a 6.5-point underdog. I like taking road teams in revenge mode that lost the first meeting at home if the price is right. Obviously, the Trojans took the Cardinal to OT to prove that they can hang, and I see no reason they can't take this one down to the wire as well.

With UCLA on deck Saturday, it's only human nature for Stanford to be looking ahead to that game. Also, USC is expected to get back second-leading scorer and top assist man Pe'Shon Howard (10.4 ppg, 4.3 apg) from a one-game absence due to disciplinary reasons. Having their floor general back will certainly benefit the Trojans offensively.

The last three meetings in this series were all within 2 points at the end of regulation, so this has been a closely-contested series. You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time that USC lost to Stanford by more than 12 points, which was a 50-65 road loss. That is a span of 15 meetings, and makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Trojans pertaining to tonight's spread of 14. Bet USC Thursday.

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 212

The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will play part in an absolute shootout tonight on TNT. Both teams love to get up and down as much as anyone in the league, and they score right up there with the best of them, too.

Golden State ranks 5th in the NBA in pace, averaging 98.8 possessions per game. Houston is right behind in 6th, averaging 98.2 possessions per game. The Rockets rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 108.0 points per 100 possessions, while the Warriors are 12th at 104.2 points per 100 possessions.

A big reason I'm backing the OVER tonight is that both teams are fresh coming off the All-Star Break and will be ready to get up and down the court. Also, Andrew Bogut is expected to miss tonight's game for Golden State, so Dwight Howard should dominate inside for Houston. Both teams are going to have to play small ball to match up.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Golden State. In their last meeting here on December 13, these teams combined for 228 points in a 116-112 road victory for the Rockets. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six Thursday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* American Athletic PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +15

The Houston Cougars (12-13) are a much better team than their record would indicate this season. They have played some very good teams tough, including taking Cincinnati down to the wire in each of their two meetings this season. I was on the Cougars in both of those games as a big underdog.

I'll back the Cougars again in the role of the big dog tonight at SMU. They'll be out for revenge from a 68-75 home loss to the Mustangs back on January 26 in their first meeting of the season. At the very least, I expect them to stay within 15 points, though they'll likely have a chance to win it in the end.

After beating Cincinnati and earning a Top 25 ranking, SMU is currently overvalued. That showed last time out as it lost 64-71 at Temple as an 8-point favorite. This team is better than people gave them credit for coming into the season, but now that the betting public has been all over them of late, the Mustangs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

Houston is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. SMU is 1-9 ATS off two straight games where it attempted 50 or less shots over the last two years. Take Houston Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons +3

This is a classic home-and-home situation. These teams played last night in Detroit with the Bobcats coming away with a 108-96 road victory. Playing one night later, I'll back the Pistons because they lost the first meeting.

In these home-and-home spots, the team that lost the first game almost always comes back the more motivated team in the second meeting. It's pretty obvious as to why as they want revenge, while the winning team has a tendency to become complacent in the second meeting.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing when these teams have gotten together recently. The road team has won six of the past seven meetings. Detroit has been at its best on the road this year, posting a very respectable 10-14 record SU away from home.

The Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Charlotte. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Charlotte is 15-39 ATS in its last 54 games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3

I fully expect the Chicago Bulls to come out of the All-Star Break as hot as they went into it. They had won three straight and four of five while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games heading into the break.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back off a big win at Washington last night. That will give the Bulls a big edge in preparation as they have had a full two days to get ready for the Raptors, while Toronto wouldn't have prepared for Chicago at all heading into this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing to these teams this season. In fact, the road team is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings between the Bulls and Raptors during the 2013-14 season. After losing the last two to the Raptors this season, the Bulls will want revenge tonight to even the season series at 2-2. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. Chicago is 41-22 ATS in its last 63 road games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 points. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take Chicago Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +17

The Auburn Tigers have been vastly improved this season. They have gone 12-11 overall to post a winning record to this point, and they come in playing their best basketball of the season.

Auburn has won four of its last six games overall with its only losses coming at LSU (80-87) and at home against Kentucky (56-64) during this stretch. It fell at home to Florida (61-68) as an 8-point underdog back on January 18 in their first meeting, which means the Tigers will be out for revenge.

Florida comes in overvalued due to recently moving up to No. 2 in the latest Top 25 poll. This is a massive letdown spot for the Gators, who are coming off their biggest win of the season with a victory at Kentucky on Saturday. That win likely wrapped up the SEC title for them, and having already beaten Auburn once this season, they won't show up with the kind of intensity it takes to beat the Tigers by more than 17 points tonight.

Auburn is 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-12 ATS after covering two of its last three against the spread over the last two years. The Gators are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games off seven or more consecutive wins. Bet Auburn Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +15.5

The Northwestern Wildcats have played their best basketball on the road this season. I look for them to give the Ohio State Buckeyes a run for their money tonight as they continue playing their best ball away from home.

Indeed, the Wildcats have won three of their last four Big Ten road games outright. They won at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point dog, at Wisconsin (65-56) as a 17-point dog, at Minnesota (55-54) as a 10.5-point dog, while losing at Michigan State (70-85) as a 14-point dog in a game that was close until the end.

Northwestern has played Ohio State very tough throughout the years. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of the last nine meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer. The Wildcats have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Buckeyes.

This is just a great matchup for the Wildcats because both teams have below-average offenses but tremendous defense. I look for them to slug it out in a low-scoring, defensive battle. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +14.5

The Boston College Eagles have clearly not had the season they envisioned this year despite returning 96 percent of their scoring from last season. However, they have a chance to make their season by beating No. 1 Syracuse tonight, and they'll be giving it their all to do so.

The Eagles have been much more competitive of late, only once losing by more than 11 points in their last 11 games overall. That included a 59-69 home loss to Syracuse in their first meeting of the season, which means they'll be out for revenge here.

I have faded Syracuse with a ton of success lately. The Orange have been overvalued due to the fact that they are 25-0 and No. 1 in the country, and they simply cannot live up to these expectations. Now, with a massive game at Duke on deck Saturday, they'll be overlooking Boston College and looking ahead to that showdown. They won't bring the kind of effort it takes to win by 15-plus points tonight.

Boston College is a sensational 101-65 ATS in its last 166 road games overall. The Eagles are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Bet Boston College Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 192

The Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in their first game back from the All-Star Break. I look for both offenses to show some rust after the layoff, and for the defenses to reign supreme in large part because of it.

However, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the familiarity between these teams. This will be their 11th meeting since February of 2013 about a year ago. That's due to the fact that they squared off in the playoffs last year. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 189 or fewer combined points, and an average of 175.3 combined points/game during this span, which is nearly 17 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana, which is 25-3 at home this season, doesn't give up anything at home. It is allowing only 85.5 points per game on 39.1% shooting at home this year. The Pacers are far and away the best team in the league defensively. They rank 1st in defensive efficiency, yielding 93.6 points per 100 possessions, which is 4.2 points less than second-place Chicago.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Pacers last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks last five overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Atlanta is 70-46 to the UNDER off two straight losses by 10 points or more since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3

The Wizards went 1-4 in their last five games before the All-Star Break, which has them undervalued coming out of the break. A closer look shows that they played well despite a brutal schedule. All four of their losses came by 7 points or less, including a 118-125 overtime loss to San Antonio, and road losses to Memphis (89-92) and Houston (112-113) by a combined four points.

Now, at 25-27 on the season, the Wizards head into the second half playing with a sense of urgency. They also have some good vibes considering two of their players shined over All-Star weekend. John Wall won the dunk contest, while Bradley Beal made it to the final round of the three-point contest. These two players have really stepped up their games this year to get Washington back into playoff contention.

I just believe the Wizards will be the more motivated team for a number of reasons, including their tough finish prior to the break. They trail tonight's opponent, the Toronto Raptors (28-24), in the Eastern Conference standings. Plus, they have lost each of their first two meetings with the Raptors this season, so they will be out for revenge.

Washington is 13-2 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season. The Wizards are 24-7 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Washington is 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Washington Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -4.5

Iowa State (19-5) will be out for revenge Tuesday when it hosts Texas (20-5) at one of the most underrated home courts in all of college basketball. Hilton Coliseum will be rocking as it always is, and I look for these players to feed off of their home crowd like they have been all season.

The Cyclones did lose 76-86 at Texas on January 18, but that should come as no surprise considering the home team has won each of the last six meetings in this series. Iowa State topped Texas 82-62 at home last year as a 9-point favorite, and I fully expect another beat down tonight.

Iowa State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game. That includes impressive wins over the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Only Kansas was able to survive a trip to Ames this season, and the Jayhawks are clearly the best team in the Big 12.

Texas is 2-9 ATS after two consecutive ATS wins over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games off a home win against a conference opponent. The Cyclones are 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Providence +5

The Providence Friars (17-9) are one of the most underrated and most improved teams in the country in 2014. They are primed to make the big dance this season, and a home win over Villanova tonight would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

Providence is going to be out for revenge from its worst loss of the season, a 61-91 road loss at Villanova on January 5. Everything went right for the Wildcats in that game as they shot 59.6% from the floor and 14-of-26 (55.3%) from the 3-point line. They clearly aren't going to shoot that well again on the road this time around.

Villanova is coming off a disheartening 80-101 loss at Creighton on Sunday, which likely cost them the Big East regular season title. That result could produce a hangover effect here, especially having already beaten Providence by 30 points, which will make it hard for them to get up for the Friars. Also, the Friars last played on Saturday, so they will have had an extra day of rest and preparation heading into this one, which is huge.

Providence is 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game. It has home wins over the likes of Georgetown (70-52), Creighton (81-68), Butler (65-56), Xavier (81-72) and DePaul (84-61) in Big East play alone. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the past seven meetings.

Villanova is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in 3 days over the last three seasons. The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by four-plus board per game over the last two seasons. The Friars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Providence Tuesday.

20* UNC/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +1.5

The Florida State Seminoles (15-10) are looking for a signature win to improve their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. That opportunity comes tonight as they welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels (17-7) to Tallahassee.

I've seen enough from this FSU team to realize that it is capable of beating anyone. It has beaten VCU (85-67) and UMass (60-55) on neutral courts, while losing tight road games to both Michigan (80-82) and Florida (66-67) by a combined three points. FSU is 8-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.

North Carolina comes into this game overvalued due to its six-game winning streak. Four of those six wins have come at home against a pretty soft schedule. It had lost four of five prior to this stretch. Off a big win over Pitt (75-71) Saturday, and with Duke on deck, this is a huge letdown/lookahead spot for the Tar Heels.

UNC is 13-30 ATS in its last 43 road games versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less after 15-plus games. The Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing with one or less days rest. The Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Florida State Monday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville +13

The Evansville Purple Aces will give the unbeaten Wichita State Shockers a run for their money Sunday. I'll gladly back them as a double-digit home underdog in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Remember, Evansville beat Wichita State TWICE last season. Their first meeting of '14 was decently close as the Shockers won 81-67 at home as a 19.5-point favorite. This was a 33-39 game at the half as the Purple Aces hung tough the entire way on the road.

At home this time around, I have no doubt they'll be able to stay within 13. They stayed within 14 on the road in the first meeting despite shooting just 10-of-18 (55.6%) from the line, while the Shockers shot 24-of-33 (72.7%) from the charity stripe. Clearly, Wichita State was getting the calls as home, but that won't be the case in the rematch on the road.

At 26-0 this season, Wichita State is one of only two unbeaten teams remaining in the country. Once a team wins so many games in a row, they start to become complacent. That's when it is time to fade them as they have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and oddsmakers. The Shockers struggled in a 78-67 home win over Southern Illinois as a 15-point favorite last time out, and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

Evansville is 14-2 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last three seasons. The Purple Aces are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Evansville is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last three years. The Purple Aces are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series, and 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings. These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing the home dog. Bet Evansville Sunday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +14

The NC State Wolfpack will give the Syracuse Orange a run for their money today. As a result, I'll gladly take the big points in a game that I believe the Wolfpack will have a chance to win outright in the end.

Due to being one of the last unbeaten teams in the country, Syracuse (24-0) is way overvalued right now. It is also in a huge letdown spot off its last-second win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

NC State (16-8) is playing its best basketball of the season heading into this one. It has won five of its last six games overall to get back into contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

Syracuse is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds. NC State is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 road games after having won four or five of its last six games. Take NC State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -4.5

Kansas State is in a massive letdown spot tonight. It is coming off a huge overtime loss to Kansas, its biggest rival, and a team that it never beats. It's only human nature for them to let down off such a big win.

Baylor still believes it can make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish to the season. It will have to nearly win out in Big 12 play, but it's doable. It is coming off a 91-58 win at TCU, and it has not given up on its season.

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Baylor is 74-49 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games since 1997. Take Baylor Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5

Arkansas (15-9) will be in revenge mode today against LSU. It suffered one of its worse losses of the season in a 74-88 setback at LSU on February 1. Two weeks later, I like the Razorbacks to return the favor with a blowout home victory of their own.

Arkansas has been one of the best home teams in the country over the past couple seasons. It is 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game. Its only two losses came to Missouri and Florida by a combined 6 points.

LSU is just 2-5 in true road games this season. It has lost its last four road games to Ole Miss (74-88), Alabama (80-82), Georgia (78-91) and Texas A&M (73-83), who are all inferior teams to Arkansas.

The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings in this series with eight of those victories coming by 5 points or more dating back to 2010. It's clear that home-court advantage means a lot in this series. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles will be looking to avenge their 79-86 road loss at Xavier on January 9. As a short home favorite in the rematch, I look for the Golden Eagles to get their payback in blowout fashion at home this time around.

Marquette comes in playing its best basketball of the season with four wins in its last six games overall. Its two losses have come to red hot Villanova and St. John's teams, and that loss to the Wildcats came in overtime. It has beaten Providence, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Butler during this stretch.

Xavier has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in the country of late. It has gone just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. I've seen this team play a handful of times this year, and I've seen enough to know that they aren't that good. Marquette has simply fallen victim to a brutal schedule this year, but it will make a run at the big dance down the stretch.

Marquette is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game in this spot. Roll with Marquette Saturday.

25* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +16

The Houston Cougars will be out for revenge from their 60-61 home loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats as a 6.5-point underdog. I was on them in that game, and I'm all over the Cougars as a 16-point dog in the rematch on the road this time around.

Cincinnati has been overvalued for quite some time now due to its record and national ranking. That has been evident by the fact that it has gone just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall. It has only beaten one team by more than 11 points during this stretch.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-38 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS after playing a game as a road dog over the last two years. Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Okie State ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +3

The Oklahoma Sooners should not be a dog today to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Sure, the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 76-88 loss at Oklahoma on January 27, but it won't matter.

Oklahoma State has been overrated all season. It has lost five straight games coming into this one, and now it without its best player in Marcus Smart. In their first game without Smart, the Cowboys were rolled at Texas by a final of 68-87. They just aren't the same without him.

I have no doubt the Sooners will be 100% focused in this game despite already beating the Cowboys once this season. That's because they have lost three of their last four games coming into this contest, including two painfully close road losses at Iowa State (75-81) & WVU (75-81). They bounce back in a big way today.

The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Oklahoma is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Okie State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +10.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will be out for revenge from their 62-73 home loss to Iowa State in their Big 12 opener on January 4. I like their chances of staying within double-digits considering how well they have played since.

Texas Tech has not lost one game by more than 9 points since that defeat against ISU. It has gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma, while also topping Baylor and Oklahoma State at home during this stretch. Tubby Smith has this team playing very good basketball having won three in a row coming in.

Iowa State has been excellent fade material in Big 12 play as it has consistently been overvalued. In fact, the Cyclones are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they are being overvalued once again as a double-digits favorite this afternoon.

The Cyclones are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games dating back to 1997. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +8

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-14) have been a very competitive team this season under first-year head coach Eddie Jordan. I like what I've seen from them against some quality teams, and I have no doubt they'll give the SMU Mustangs a run for their money tonight.

Rutgers has won two of its last three in blowout fashion with a 93-70 home win over Houston, and a 79-69 triumph at South Florida. This is a team that played Louisville tough at home, losing by a final of 76-83 as a 14.5-point underdog.

SMU just moved into the top 25 after its first win over a Top 10 opponent since 1987. Fans stormed the court after the win over Cincinnati, and I enjoyed it as well as I was on the Mustangs in that game. Now, it's time to shift gears and fade them in a horrible spot.

The Mustangs are in line for a massive letdown tonight at Rutgers off such a big win that led to a national ranking. They have also had to deal with travel after this game was postponed, and it's not a short trip from SMU to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights will be out for revenge from their 56-70 loss at SMU on January 21 in their first meeting of the season as well.

SMU is just 4-4 in true road games this season, while Rutgers is 9-7 at home. The Scarlet Knights have been covering machines at home of late, going 5-1 ATS in their last six home contests. Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Utes (16-7) are one of the most improved teams in the country. With a big finish to the regular season, they could be finding themselves in the NCAA Tournament. That means not losing games like this to USC (10-13).

Sure, Utah is 0-6 on the road this season compared to 15-1 at home, but a closer look shows that it has played well on the road. Amazingly, all six of its road losses this season have come by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer.

The Utes lost at Boise State (67-69) as a 10-point dog, at Washington (57-59), at Washington State (46-49), at Arizona State (75-79), at Arizona (56-65) as a 13-point dog and at Colorado (75-79). None of those were really bad losses with the exception of maybe Washington State.

The reason I like the Utes to break through and get that first road win is because I believe USC has packed it in. It has lost nine of its last 10 games overall and really has nothing to play for. It is also coming off a 73-83 home loss to arch rival UCLA, which could lead to a hangover effect here.

Utah absolutely crushed USC in their first meeting of the season by a final of 84-66, forcing 17 turnovers while only giving it away 8 times. While I usually look for teams in revenge spots, I don't believe that will be a factor here because this isn't much of a rivalry. The state of the teams with Utah playing for the big dance and USC packing it in also eliminates the revenge factor in my opinion.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (USC) off three straight losses to conference opponents and trying to revenge a same season loss are 106-50 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Utes are 40-15 ATS in their last 57 games overall.

Utah is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. The Utes are 14-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. Utah is 8-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Utes. Take Utah Thursday.

15* Nets/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 185

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls tonight. This is their final game before the All-Star Break, so I full expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively. They are also becoming rivals, which will add to the defensive intensity.

The Bulls and Nets met in the playoffs last season as Chicago won in seven games by going on the road in Game 7 and coming away with a victory. They also won the first meeting this season by a final of 95-78 on the road. Obviously, these teams are very familiar with each other, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Playing low-scoring games is nothing new to Chicago. It is combining with its opponents for an average of 185.0 points per game on the season, including 183.6 points per game at home. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging 93.1 possessions per game. Brooklyn also likes to slow it down, ranking 26th n pace at 94.0 possessions per game. That means this contest is likely to be played at a snail's pace, which will certainly favor the UNDER.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Bulls last nine games overall. They have combined with their last nine opponents for 185, 178, 189, 193, 169, 167, 182, 181, and 176 points, respectively. As you can see, they have combined for 185 or less in seven of them, and the only two opponents that went over that number were the Warriors and Suns, who each like to play at a fast pace.

Chicago is 23-8 to the UNDER when playing a team with a losing record this season. The Bulls are 21-7 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this year. The UNDER is 13-4 in Bulls last 17 home games. The UNDER is 26-10-1 in Bulls last 37 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* College Basketball DOG OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +15

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being this heavily favored over the Northwestern Wildcats tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the dog in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

The Spartans aren't at full strength right now, yet they're being treated like they're one of the best teams in the country, which simply isn't the case at this point. That's because they are without two of their best players in Keith Appling (15.0 ppg, 4.9 apg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg).

This isn't a very deep Spartans team, so these two losses are absolutely huge. That has shown in recent games as Michigan State has lost three of its last five games overall. One of its wins came by two points over Iowa, and the other was a 15-point home win over Penn State.

Northwestern is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. It has won four of its last six games overall, which includes outright road victories over Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point dog, Wisconsin (65-56) as a 17-point dog, and Minnesota (55-54) as a 10.5-point dog.

The Wildcats will be out for revenge from a 40-54 home loss to Michigan State on January 15 in their first meeting of the season. They have played tough in recent trips to Michigan State, going 1-3 in their last four visits while not losing once by more than 10 points.

Northwestern is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Michigan State. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bet Northwestern Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9

The Washington Wizards (25-26) will be highly motivated to get back to .500 in time for the All-Star Break. The only way to do that is to go into Houston and beat the Rockets tonight. I like their chances of keeping this one close and potentially pulling off the upset in the end.

Washington simply does not get blown out. Each of its last eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer. You have to go all the way back to January 10 at Indiana to find the last time that the Wizards were blown out. One of those 7-point losses was a 107-114 setback at home to the Rockets, which places the Wizards in revenge mode heading into their second and final meeting of the season.

Houston is simply overvalued right now due to having won six straight games heading into this contest. Considering the closely-contested nature of this series, there's no question that Houston is laying too many points. Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Rockets and Wizards have been decided by 8 points or fewer. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

Washington is 12-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per game this season. The Wizards are 55-35 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Washington is 12-2 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two years. The Wizards are 23-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +9.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been much more competitive this season under first-year head coach Tubby Smith. The cupboard certainly wasn't bare for Smith with four returning starters from last year, but he has done a good job in leading them to a 12-11 mark to this point.

Texas Tech has literally had a chance to win every one of its Big 12 games this season. It has gone 4-6 within the conference with all six losses coming by 11 points or fewer, and five by 9 points or less. That includes road losses at Texas (64-67), WVU (81-87) and Kansas State (58-66).

Tech lost its first meeting with Oklahoma by a final of 65-74 at home on January 25. That defeat places the Red Raiders in revenge mode, and it could also have Oklahoma overlooking them. That's especially the case with a big game against in-state rival Oklahoma State on deck.

The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 14-2 system backing the Red Raiders. Take Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +14

The DePaul Blue Demons (10-14) continue to fight despite their poor record. They have covered two of their last three against the spread with a 72-77 home loss to Providence as a 6-point dog, and a rather impressive 66-78 road loss at Creighton as a 20-point dog.

The Blue Demons are simply undervalued tonight as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team. They'll be out for revenge from a 62-88 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting of the season. This was a 24-33 game at half before the Wildcats blew it open after intermission. They shot 55.4% that day, and there's no chance they shoot that well again.

Villanova (21-2) is overvalued right now due to its record. This is a very tough spot for the Wildcats, who won't be able to get up for DePaul after already crushing the Blue Demons once this season. That's especially the case with a massive game on deck at Creighton this weekend that could determine the Big East champ. The Wildcats will be looking ahead to that contest.

Plays against of 10 to 19.5 points (VILLANOVA) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997. Villanova is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 road games after having covered three of its last four games ATS. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Roll with DePaul Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks (20-31) have a terrible record, but the fact of the matter is that they are just 2.5 games behind the Charlotte Bobcats for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They want to go into the All-Star Break the right way with an emphatic win over Sacramento tonight.

The Knicks are playing much better of late having won five of their last nine games overall. The same cannot be said for Sacramento, which has lost 10 of its last 12 overall, including three straight by 9-plus points. The Kings have lost seven in a row as the visitor, and they seemed to already be looking forward to the All-Star break after Tuesday's 109-99 defeat in Cleveland.

"The effort wasn't there," said center DeMarcus Cousins, who had 21 points and 10 rebounds. "It was just bad overall. I don't really have an answer, but whatever it is, it needs to be fixed. After the All-Star break, we'll start fresh, which is what we need right now."

The Knicks have won their last two home meetings with the Kings in blowout fashion by finals of 120-81 and 100-85. New York is 25-11 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing tremendous value as only a 1-point favorite over the Orlando Magic Wednesday. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as we head into the All-Star Break.

Memphis (28-23) sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, two games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot. That means it will be lacking no motivation in this game as it wants to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note off last night's 92-89 win over Washington.

Orlando (16-37) is WAY overvalued right now due to winning three straight games coming into this one. The last two of those victories came against Oklahoma City and Indiana by a single point each. Clearly, the Thunder and Pacers were overlooking the Magic. Memphis won't be doing the same tonight given the situation. Orlando is in a letdown spot off those two huge wins as well.

Memphis has owned Orlando, winning five straight meetings in this series. That includes a 108-82 road victory in its last visit to Orlando. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Memphis is 24-11-1 ATS in its last 36 games when its starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on George Mason +11

George Mason (8-15) is one of the most underrated teams in the country due to its record. A closer look shows that this team has simply fallen victim to bad luck in close games. In fact, 10 of its 15 losses have come by 6 points or less this season.

That includes narrow road losses to very good teams in Princeton (66-71), Oregon State (54-58) and Saint Louis (81-87), as well as close home losses to the likes of St. Josephs (80-84), UMass (87-88) and George Washington (69-75).

Having lost by a single point to the Minutemen in their first meeting this season, I look for George Mason to be out for revenge in this one. It clearly has not quit on the season having won at Duquesne 74-68 last time out. It will relish playing the role of spoiler tonight.

George Mason is 6-0 ATS in February road games over the last two seasons, winning by 9.5 points per game. UMass is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 10 or more points. The Minutemen have bigger games coming up at George Washington and VCU in their next two, and having already beaten the Patriots, they will be overlooking them tonight. Bet George Mason Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/Pitt ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -2

Tonight is the night when Syracuse suffers its first taste of defeat for the 2013-14 season. It has been a nice run, but I strongly believe it comes to an end. Oddsmakers have pegged Pittsburgh as the favorite for a reason, and this line continues to rise for a reason.

Pittsburgh has one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball, and you can bet it will be rocking tonight. The Panthers are 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points per game.

The Panthers will be in revenge mode following a 54-59 road loss at Syracuse on January 18 in their first meeting of the season. The Panthers shot just 38.3% from the field and 56.5% from the line in that game, while Syracuse shot 51.2% and 72.2%, respectively.

It's a miracle that the Panthers were able to hang tough despite those disparities, but they did so by outrebounding the Orange 35-24 for the game, including 12-4 on the offensive glass. There's no way the Panthers shoot that poorly again, and I still expect them to dominate the glass, which will be the difference as to why they get payback at home this time around.

Syracuse is 6-15 ATS after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 37% or less. The Panthers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven home meetings. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to lack the respect they deserve tonight as only a 1-point home favorite over the Oklahoma City Thunder. At 36-15 on the season, they trail the Thunder by just 4 games for the top spot in the Western Conference.

That makes this a very important game for them heading into the All-Star Break. They have taken two of the first three meetings with the Thunder this season, so another win tonight would give them the tiebreaker if it came down to it. You can bet the Blazers will be up for this game because of it.

Portland has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. It is 19-5 at home this season, and these are some of the best fans the league has to offer when the Blazers are actually a good team. Oklahoma City has lost its last two road games to Washington (81-96) and Orlando (102-103) to cool off after going on a big tear, which is the reason it is overvalued here.

The Blazers are 12-4 ATS when revenging a loss in which opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Portland is 15-6 ATS after covering three of its last four against the spread this season. The favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes opened 15-0 this season and were clearly overvalued at that point. They went on to lose five of their next six by 10 points or less, and at the end of that stretch they were undervalued. That was evident when they went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes wins at Wisconsin and at Iowa.

I believe the Buckeyes remain undervalued as only a 3.5-point favorite over Michigan tonight. I have no doubt that Ohio State is the better team in this one. Considering it is 14-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game, I'll gladly back it at this generous price.

Michigan was undervalued for most of the season. It opened a perfect 8-0 in Big Ten play, which was certainly overachieving. Six of those wins came by single-digits. I believe the true Michigan has shown over the past couple weeks as it has gone 1-2 with blowout losses at Indiana (52-63) and at Iowa (67-85). Despite its record, I have no doubt the Wolverines are no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten, while Ohio State is better than its conference record would indicate.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-8 ATS in road games when playing their third game in a week over the last three seasons, losing by 10.0 points per game in this spot. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or fewer turnovers this season. These last two trends combined for a 14-0 system backing the home team. Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers PK

Despite being just 18-33 on the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are only four games out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Because of this fact, they are pushing hard here right before the All-Star Break to try and close the gap.

The Cavaliers have won back-to-back games over playoff contenders in Washington and Memphis heading into this contest. What really lit a spark under this team was a poor performance against the Lakers when they only had four players left due to fouls and injuries, as well as the firing of general manager Chris Grant.

"I think it woke up a lot of people," said Dion Waiters, who combined for 42 points in the last two games after totaling six points in his previous two contests. "Me, I felt half of that was my fault, how we played. We just didn't come out right as a unit. I think it cost the man his job. If we had been playing the way we have the last two games he'd probably still be here. We can't dwell on the past, we've got to continue to play the way we've been playing and keep it up."

The Cavaliers will also be motivated to avenge their worst loss of the season, an 80-124 loss at Sacramento on January 12. I like their chances considering the Kings have lost nine of 11 overall and six straight on the road coming into this contest. This is a team that has nothing to play for but pride, and is just looking forward to getting to the All-Star Break.

Sacramento is 13-26 ATS off two straight games with 19 or less assists over the last three seasons. The Kings are 23-47 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days over the last three years. Mike Brown is 90-60 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games in all games he has coached. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers UNDER 199.5

The Indiana Pacers are going to be highly motivated for a victory after getting outscored 29-18 in the fourth quarter to lose to the Orlando Magic by a final of 93-92 Sunday. I look for their motivation to show on the defensive end as they look to shut down Denver's high-powered offense.

Adding to the motivation for the Pacers is the fact that they lost the first meeting of the season with Denver on the road by a final of 109-96. They have only allowed 100-plus points 11 times this season, including three times at home.

The Pacers are the best defensive team in the league, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency at 94.0 points per 100 possessions. They give up a mere 85.8 points per game on 39.6% shooting at home. The Pacers' job will be much easier tonight with leading scorer Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg) listed as doubtful with a rib injury. The Nuggets are lost offensively without him.

Indiana is 11-3 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Pacers are 28-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Pacers last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six when playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Raptors UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle tonight.

Both of these teams prefer to slow it down and play in the half court. In fact, Toronto and New Orleans are tied for 22nd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. Toronto ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up only 101.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans have been forced to play at an even slow pace since losing two of their best players to injury. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) remain out. Tyreke Evans (12.4 ppg) is questionable to play tonight as well.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent years, and I look for it to remain that way in 2013-14. Toronto and New Orleans have combined for 191 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. The only one that went over that mark went to overtime in a game that was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation. So, not counting overtime, the last six meetings since 2009 have seen 191 or fewer points at the end of regulation.

Toronto is 23-6 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 22-6 to the UNDER after trailing its previous game by 20-plus points at the half since 1996. The Pelicans are 16-7 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country at 18-4 this season. They aren't exactly being treated like it as only a 1.5-point road favorite over West Virginia (14-10), which is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12.

A big reason for that is the fact that Iowa State has really cooled off ATS after a hot streak. In fact, it has gone just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. That has the betting public off of the Cyclones due to a terrible run ATS, and now is the time to pounce on them at a great price.

West Virginia has been playing much better basketball of late, but remember, it lost its first two home games to Texas and Oklahoma State. It is also coming off a deflating 69-83 loss at Kansas on Saturday in a game that was close until the end. I look for the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat just two days ago.

Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread. The Cyclones are 33-19 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.

This will be Iowa State's 2nd game in 7 days, while this will be WVU's 3rd game in 6 days. The rest edge favors the Cyclones big-time. West Virginia is 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 home games, and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss. Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's +3

The St. John's Red Storm are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last six games overall to get to 14-9 on the season and right back in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Their have beaten the likes of Butler and Providence on the road. Their only loss during this stretch came at Creighton by a final of 60-63 as a 12.5-point underdog as Doug McDermott his a game-winner just before the buzzer. That places St. John's in revenge mode tonight at home this time around.

The amazing part about the fact that St. John's only lost by 3 in the first meeting is that they were killed in shooting. Creighton shot 48.9% from the field and 7-of-16 (43.7%) from 3-point range. The Red Storm shot 42.9% from the field and 1-of-10 (10%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be reversed this time around.

St. John's is 10-3 at home this season. The Bluejays are 1-8 ATS in February games over the last two years. Creighton is 1-9 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the last two years. The Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take St. John's Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +15

Once again, the Arizona Wildcats are way overvalued tonight. They are 21-1 on the season, and as a result, the betting public has been all over them. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate their lines, and I've been taking advantage of late.

I faded Arizona successfully with Utah +14 in a 56-65 loss at Arizona on January 26. Then, I released my Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon +11 on February 6 in a 65-67 road loss last time out. Once again, the books continue to give the Wildcats too much respect tonight.

One reason why Arizona will not be as strong as it was in the first half of the season is the fact that it lost one of its best players just two games ago. Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) shoots 52.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range. He'll be missed as he's been lost for the season due to injury.

Oregon State is a team of a similar talent level to both Utah and Oregon, and it is certainly capable of staying within double-digits tonight, let alone 15 points. This team has won four of its last six games to get to 13-9 on the season, which includes a 71-67 victory over UCLA, and an 80-72 triumph over Oregon.

Looking at Oregon State's losses, it's easy to see that this team is very competitive. In fact, all nine of the Beavers' losses have come by 12 points or less, so essentially they nave been in every game they have played. All five of their Pac-12 losses came by 11 points or fewer.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years as well. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Oregon State and Arizona were decided by 11 points or fewer, and six of those were settled by single-digits.

Oregon State is 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Beavers. Bet Oregon State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Cavaliers UNDER 186

I'm going to back the UNDER in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The books have certainly set the bar too high, and I'll take advantage.

Memphis is 11-2 to the UNDER in its last 13 games overall. It has failed to score 100 points in any of those 13 games, but it has allowed 95 points or fewer in 12 of them. This team has always lacked an offense, but it is one of the best defensive clubs in the league.

One reason Memphis' offense is lacking is that it is without leading scorer and floor genera, Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 ap). It does not have a true point guard to run the offense without Conley, so easy buckets are tough to come by. The offense has to be exclusively ran through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph down low.

Both teams play at slow paces. Memphis ranks last in the league in pace at 92.1 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks in a tie for 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace because of it.

Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER after allowing 80 points or less over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven road games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a win. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games following a win. These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Magic UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic will take part in a defensive battle Sunday. This will be their third meeting of the season, and familiarity breeds defense. The more familiar you are with your opponent, the tougher it is to score.

This has been a very low-scoring series of late. The last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points with combined finals of 177, 184 and 168 points. That's an average combined point total of 176.3 points per game, which is nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, yielding just 90.7 points per game. It ranks 1st in defensive efficiency by a landslide, yielding only 94.0 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers rank just 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game, which is one of the keys to their success defensively as they prefer to slow it down.

The Pacers are a super 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Indiana is 27-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. Orlando is 51-28 to the UNDER in its last 79 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds. The UNDER is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 18-8-1 in Magic last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Clemson/Syracuse ESPNU No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Syracuse Orange have been undervalued for much of the season. They opened 12-4 ATS in their first 16 lined games. However, due to being 22-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country, this team is starting to prove to be overvalued at this point in the season.

The Orange have a massive target on their back, and they have failed to cover in their last two games because of it. They beat Duke 91-89 in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite, and edged Notre Dame 61-55 as an 11.5-point home favorite in a sloppy performance.

Syracuse is obviously starting to hear how it is the best team in the country, and it is going to these players' heads. With an even bigger game against Pittsburgh on deck Wednesday, the Orange could easily be overlooking Clemson in this one.

Clemson (15-6) is one of the most improved teams in the country, and it could really use a signature win here to make the big dance. The Tigers have won five of their last seven ACC games overall, which includes a home win over Duke (72-59) and a road win at Florida State (53-49) to prove what they are capable of.

The Tigers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Syracuse is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. The Orange are 54-92 ATS in home games when playing its second game in a week since 1997. Brad Brownell is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 road games after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games in all games he has coached. Roll with Clemson Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a 9.5-point home underdog tonight to the Miami Heat. Asking the Heat to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Utah is undervalued right now due to its four straight losses coming in, including three in a row via blowout against playoff contenders in the Clippers, Raptors and Mavericks. These recent results have forced oddsmakers to inflate this line knowing that the betting public will be all over Miami.

The Heat have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They get up for the games against playoff contenders, but they have a hard time getting motivated to face teams out of the playoff race. It's understandable considering they have won back-to-back championships, so they pick and choose when they want to show up.

Utah has played Miami very tough at home in recent years. In fact, the Jazz have won three of their past four home meetings in this series, including back-to-back outright wins as an underdog with a 104-97 triumph in 2012-13, and a 99-98 victory in 2011-12. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Miami is 6-14 ATS after scoring 105 or more points this season. Utah 15-3 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread over the last three seasons. The Heat are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -3

The SMU Mustangs are one of the sleeper teams in college basketball this season under legendary coach Larry Brown. They returned all five starters from last season and are primed to make the NCAA Tournament after an 18-5 start to the 2013-14 campaign.

I have seen enough from the Mustangs to know that this is one of the better teams in the country. Home wins over the likes of Memphis (87-82) and Connecticut (74-65) have proven that. Plus, they have played two of the best teams in the country in Cincinnati (57-65) and Louisville (63-71) tough in road losses.

Now, SMU gets a shot at revenge against the Bearcats at home this time around. It is a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game. The Bearcats come in overvalued due to their current 15-game winning streak. Each of their last four wins have come by 5 points or less, so they've simply been fortunate in close games. That streak comes to an end today in emphatic fashion.

Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) - off two consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1997. The Bearcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. Roll with SMU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost each of their last two games on the road in heartbreaking fashion on the road to Iowa State (75-81) and West Virginia (86-91, OT). I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Oklahoma (17-6) remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. It has taken care of business at home this year, going 10-2 while winning by 9.6 points per game. They have also beaten Texas and Baylor on the road, and Oklahoma State and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is in a world of hurt right now. Simply put, this team came into the season overrated. The Bears have lost six of their last seven games overall, including a deflating 52-69 home loss to Kansas last time out. Five of their seven Big 12 losses have come by double-digits, so they've rarely been competitive.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Baylor is 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings with Baylor. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes obviously want revenge from their 77-85 loss to the Wolverines roughly two weeks ago in Ann Arbor on January 22. They get them at home this time around, and despite their recent struggles here, the Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 23.2 points per game. Michigan is just 4-3 in true road games this season, and it lost 52-63 in its last road game at Indiana. The Wolverines are simply overvalued right now due to their fast start in the Big Ten.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings between Iowa and Michigan. Dating back further, the home team is a superb 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Iowa is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games. Iowa is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS off two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly been playing some of the best basketball in the league over the last couple of weeks to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt. They have done so without two of their best players in Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday.

Indeed, the Pelicans have won five of their last seven games overall with their lone losses coming at Minnesota and at home against San Antonio. They have beaten playoff contenders like Chicago and Atlanta during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued, which has shown with their 9-4 ATS mark in their last 13 games overall.

New Orleans is playing with double-revenging having lost both meetings with Minnesota this season, though both of those came on the road. The Timberwolves are 10-16 on the road this season. They will be without Nikola Pekovic (18.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) tonight, and they could be without Kevin Love (25.6 ppg, 13.2 rpg), who is questionable with a neck injury.

The Timberwolves are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +1.5

The New York Knicks are in need of a victory tonight after losing three straight to drop to 19-30 on the season. Fortunately, they play in the Eastern Conference so they are not too far out of the playoff hunt. I look for them to come together tonight and get back on track with a win over Denver, and so does their star.

"We gotta stick together as a team. No one person is going to do it," star forward Carmelo Anthony said. "Everybody has gotta play their part in us turning this thing around. Our main focus is to win as many games as we can right now to prepare ourselves to make a push for the postseason."

The Nuggets come in overvalued due to winning four of their last six games overall. Five of those six games came at home, and now they start a 4-game road trip. The Nuggets are just 10-12 on the road this season.

The Knicks will be out for revenge from a 95-97 road loss to Denver in their first meeting this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

Denver is 1-9 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Nuggets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 25-2 system backing New York. Take the Knicks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a nice-sized road underdog. Asking the Washington Wizards to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The reason the Cavaliers are showing such great value tonight is the fact that they have lost six straight while failing to cover six in a row in the process. Obviously, the betting public realizes that they have been struggling, which has forced oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Cleveland is going to play motivated basketball tonight to end this losing streak. The main reason it will be focused is because it has been the laughing stock of the media due to losing to the Los Angeles Lakers last time out, who were down to four players. The Lakers had to be charged a technical to allow Robert Sacre to return to the floor after picking up his sixth foul.

Washington just played a brutal stretch in which is faced five of the top teams in the West in Golden State, LA Clippers, OKC, Portland and San Antonio. It managed to go 3-2 against those five teams, which is impressive. However, it is coming off a double-overtime loss to San Antonio, and I look for it to suffer a hangover effect. There's no way the Wizards will be able to get up emotionally to face the Cavs after taking on the toughest part of their schedule.

This has been a very closely-contested series of late with each of the last four meetings decided by 7 points or less. Cleveland has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington, so this is clearly a team that it matches up well against. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won five of the past seven meetings outright.

Cleveland is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +8.5

Once again, the Chicago Bulls are being undervalued by oddsmakers. This is nothing new for this team over the past two seasons under my favorite head coach in the league, Tom Thibodeau. The guy just keeps winning no matter the circumstances.

Despite arguably their two best players in Derrick Rose to a season-ending injury, and Luol Deng via trade, the Bulls have managed to go 12-6 in their last 18 games overall. At 24-24 on the season, they certainly have a chance to earn the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference if they keep up this play.

Golden State has really been struggling of late, going 4-6 in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 2-5 record at home during this stretch with losses to the likes of Denver, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington and Charlotte. It has shot 38% or less from the floor in three of its last four games overall.

Things won't get any easier for the Warriors offensively tonight as they'll be up against Chicago's stingy defense. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Golden State certainly struggled to find the bottom of the net against Chicago last year. The Bulls swept the season series in blowout fashion, winning 103-87 at home and 113-95 on the road. They held the Warriors to an average of just 91 points per game in the two wins, and averaged 108 points per game themselves despite playing without Rose.

The Warriors are 1-8 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Bulls Thursday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +11

The Oregon Ducks (15-6) represent my strongest play for the entire 2013-14 season in the Pac-12 Thursday. They take on the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (21-1) on the road with a chance to get a signature win and greatly increase their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is undervalued right now due to losing six of its last eight games overall following a 13-0 start. Five of those six losses came by single-digits, including three by a combined 8 points. So, the Ducks have been in basically every game they have played with a chance to win in the end. This game will be no different.

Arizona comes in overvalued due to its 21-1 start. It just suffered its first loss of the season in a 58-60 setback at California last time out. When teams have long winning streaks like this snapped, more times than not there is a hangover effect in their next game. I really believe that the Wildcats will be upset tonight, but I'm just taking the points for some added insurance.

One key factor here is that Arizona lost one of its best players in its loss to California. Forward Brandon Ashley (ankle) has been lost for the season. He was the team's third leading scorer at 11.5 points per game, while also averaging 5.8 rebounds per game. He shot 52.2 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from 3-point range, and 75.7 percent from the free throw line, so this is obviously a huge loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (OREGON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Ducks are 17-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are much-improved this season under Matt Painter due to having four starters back. However, at 13-9 on the season, they really need to go on a run right now if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Because of this, the Boilermakers will not be lacking any motivation. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they have lost four straight following a three-game winning streak in the Big Ten. That is expected considering three of the losses came on the road, while the other was at home against Big Ten power Wisconsin.

Finally, this is a classic revenge spot, which will only add to the motivation. Minnesota beat Purdue 82-79 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 5. Exactly a month later, I expect the Boilermakers to have their revenge at home this time around.

Everything went right for Minnesota in that game as it shot 52.2% from the field, 11-of-24 (45.8%) from 3-point range, and 23-of-27 (85.2%) from the line, yet it still only won by 3 points. The Gophers won't shoot that well again, and as a result, they won't be so fortunate this time around.

The Golden Gophers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Purdue is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Minnesota. Take Purdue Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Portland -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing tremendous value as a minimal road favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. Portland (34-14) is having a tremendous season and is one of the most improved teams in the league. New York (19-29) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.

Having lost five of their last eight games overall, the Blazers will come out hungry tonight. Each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, so they have played a brutal stretch of games. They finally get a break here against the lowly Knicks.

New York is 10 games below .500, and the fact of the matter is that it simply does not have the talent to compete this season. Carmelo Anthony is being asked to do too much. The Knicks have lost seven of their last 11 games overall with their only wins coming at home against the Bobcats, Lakers, Celtics and Cavs. They even lost to the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks last time out.

Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

When two of the worst teams in the league in the Boston Celtics (16-33) and Philadelphia 76ers (15-34) get together, you need to look for any kind of motivational factors you can find. I believe the Celtics will be the more motivated team in this one.

The reason is very simple. These teams just played a week ago with the 76ers winning 95-94 in Boston. You can bet that the Celtics will be motivated to avenge that defeat, while the 76ers won't show up with the same focus that they normally would having beaten this team recently.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series of late as the road team has won three of the last five meetings outright. The 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in all lined home games this season.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 90-47 (65.7%) ATS since 1996. Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 76% of more of their attempts this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia comes in playing its best basketball of the season, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Oklahoma. I'll take advantage and back the Mountaineers.

WVU has won three of its last four games overall with its lone loss coming at Oklahoma State by a final of 75-81 as a 13.5-point underdog. It has gone on the road and beaten Baylor, while also topping Kansas State and Texas Tech at home during this stretch.

I believe Oklahoma is overvalued right now after a fast start to Big 12 play that included four straight wins before falling to Iowa State on Saturday. The Mountaineers will be the more motivated team here as they really need this win to get back into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

The Mountaineers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games with a total of 150 to 159 points. West Virginia is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 home games off a home win. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 80 points or more over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. This should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last year.

The Huskers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three of their last four games with victories over Ohio State, Minnesota and Indiana. In fact, their last three losses have all come by 6 points or less.

One of those defeats was a 70-71 home loss to Michigan. That places the Huskers in revenge mode tonight. Michigan is way overvalued due to its 8-1 start in Big Ten play. It simply cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself in the eyes of the betting public, which has forced oddsmakers to inflate its lines.

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. These three trends combine for a an 18-0 system backing the Huskers. It's also worth nothing that the Huskers have had three extra days of rest heading into this one. Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +8

The Chicago Bulls get the nod Tuesday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Phoenix Suns. I have been backing the Suns as much as anyone this year, but they are finally overvalued here, while the Bulls are showing some of their best value of the season.

Chicago is a very resilient team. That is evident by the fact that it has not lost three in a row since losing four straight from December 14-19. Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly 99-70 loss at Sacramento last night in which they shot 28.2 percent from the field, I have no doubt the Bulls will come out determined tonight.

Chicago has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. In fact, it has won each of its last four visits to Phoenix. This has clearly been a one-sided series over time, and while the Suns are improved this year, they won't be ready for the effort they are going to get from this motivated squad tonight.

Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on 0 days rest. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -3.5

Despite losing five of their last six games overall, the Wisconsin Badgers are still 17-5 on the season and one of the best teams in the country. I look for them to come out motivated and to take care of business against hapless Illinois (13-9) tonight.

Wisconsin has suffered four of its losses by single-digits, so it simply hasn't been getting it done in close games. The good news is that I do not expect this game to be close at all as the Badgers come out playing inspired basketball from start to finish.

Illinois has nothing to be excited about right now. It has lost seven straight games coming in with all seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes a 70-95 loss at Wisconsin to start the streak on January 8. This has been a one-sided series to say the least.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Illinois as four of those victories have come by double-digits. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +9

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most improved teams in the country. However, I believe they are overvalued right now as a 9-point favorite at TCU in this Big 12 showdown Tuesday night. They need to be on upset alert.

Texas is 17-4 this season after having won six straight Big 12 games. Off its biggest win of the season with an 81-69 home victory over Kansas, Texas finds itself in a massive letdown spot tonight. It's only human nature to come out flat after beating a team like Kansas.

Meanwhile, TCU is chomping at the bit to get its first taste of victory in the Big 12. It has come close in losses to West Virginia (69-74), Oklahoma (69-77) and Texas Tech (54-60) to show that it can be competitive. Remember, this team upset Kansas at home last year, and the Horned Frogs are fully capable of doing the same against the Longhorns tonight.

Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games coming in. The Longhorns are 15-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two big rivals who played each other in the playoffs last year, so they are also familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense every time.

When looking at the last five meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Pacers have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings, averaging a combined 175.8 points per game during this span. That's roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up just 90.3 points per game on 41.3% shooting on the season. The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 93.9 points per 100 possessions, which is by far the best mark in the NBA.

The Pacers are 16-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

After having lost five of their last six games overall, the Ohio State Buckeyes showed a ton of grit and determination in beating the Wisconsin Badgers on the road by a final of 59-58 Saturday. That win gives this team a ton of confidence and momentum going forward.

Ohio State is still 17-5 on the season, and I have no doubt it remains one of the best teams in the country. It will now be out for revenge from a 74-84 home loss to Iowa in their first meeting of the season back on January 12.

I have had a lot of success taking these road teams who lost at home to their opponent in the first meeting of the season. There's no question that the Buckeyes will be the more motivated team given the circumstances, and they are catching a decent amount of points to boot.

Ohio State is 19-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Buckeyes are 31-10 ATS in their last 41 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. As you can see, this team has been excellent in this situation over time as well. Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are expected to be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins (22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg) due to injury once again tonight. His value to this team is really starting to show considering the Kings are 0-7 in their last seven games without him.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They have managed to go 11-5 in their last 16 games overall despite a season-ending injury to Derrick Rose, and the trading of Luol Deng. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is showing that he may be the best in the league.

Another example of the Bulls' resiliency is their ability to bounce back from a loss. In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 straight up in their last seven games following a defeat, and have been tremendous under Thibodeau in this situation in his time here.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Bulls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Kings are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Nuggets UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets. I believe a big reason for that is the return of point guard Ty Lawson for Denver from a shoulder injury, but now the number has been inflated as a result.

Denver is still in a world of hurt in the injury department. It is without Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari, Andre Miller and JaVale McGee. This team has really cooled off offensively as a result, scoring an average of just 94.0 points per game in back-to-back home losses to Charlotte and Toronto.

When you look at the recent history of these teams, which included when Chris Paul was healthy and the Clippers were at their peak offensively, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

In fact, each of the last 15 meetings in this series have seen 215 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 15-0 totals system backing the under dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set of 216. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 193

The San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans are both in a world of hurt right now in the injury department. As a result, I expect points to be hard to come by tonight, and for the final combined score of this game to stay well UNDER the number.

San Antonio is expected to be without Danny Green (7.4 ppg), Manu Ginobli (12.1 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (11.6 ppg) tonight. It has been without these three for a couple games now, and the results have not been pretty. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs' last three games overall as they are averaging just 90.3 points/game in the process.

New Orleans is playing without two of its best players in starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall as they have combined with their last four opponents 192 or fewer points in each game, and an average of 178.3 combined points per game.

The Pelicans are 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34 home games off an upset win as a home underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pelicans last seven games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs last three games, and 4-0 in Pelicans last four games. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier +10

The Xavier Musketeers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Providence and Seton Hall to fall to 15-6 on the season. They are undervalued as a 10-point underdog to Villanova Monday as a result.

I've seen enough from this Xavier team to realize that it has the potential to go into Villanova and pull off the upset tonight, and at the very least to keep it close. In fact, five of its six losses this season have come by 9 points or less. It has beaten the likes of Cincinnati and Tennessee while playing some of the other top teams in the country very tough.

Villanova comes in overvalued due to having won three straight road games, but those three came against conference bottom feeders Temple, Georgetown and Marquette. The Wildcats needed overtime to beat Marquette, and only won by 5 at Georgetown. Remember, in their last home game, they lost to Creighton 68-96. That's the same Creighton team that only beat Xavier 95-89 at home.

Plays against any team (VILLANOVA) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Xavier is 7-0 ATS versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or better and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better this season. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. Bet Xavier Monday.

20* Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl XLVIII No-Brainer on Denver -2

The Denver Broncos have looked absolutely dominant all season and in the playoffs. An amazing 14 of their 15 wins have come by a touchdown or more, and they are outscoring opponents by an average of 13.1 points per game. That is the best margin in the league. They have done so behind a record-setting year from Peyton Manning, who desperately wants to win at least one more Super Bowl before he retires. His teammates will be laying it on the line to get it for him.

Indeed, Manning has led the league's top offense this season. The Broncos rank 1st in scoring offense at 36.4 points per game, and 1st in total offense at 454.9 yards per game. During the regular season, Manning completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 5,477 yards with 55 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Those yardage and touchdown marks are new single-season NFL records, and it's going to be hard to see them every getting broken.

The two playoff games that Denver played weren't nearly as close as the final scores would indicate. It outgained San Diego 363-259 in a 24-17 victory in a game that was 17-0 until the fourth quarter. It also outgained New England 507-320 in a game that was 23-3 early in the fourth quarter. So, the Broncos have outgained their two playoff opponents a combined 870-579, or by 291 total yards.

Taking a look at Seattle's two playoff games, I would argue that it is lucky to be in the Super Bowl. It was outgained 277-409 by New Orleans in a 23-15 victory in the Divisional Round. It then tied San Francisco with 308 total yards apiece, but needed three 49ers' turnovers in the fourth quarter to come away with a 23-17 victory. The Seahawks have been outgained 585-717, or by a total of 132 yards.

There's no question that the Broncos are playing the better football leading up to the Super Bowl. While the offense is the best in the league, the defense has really stepped it up at the end of the season. In fact, Denver has allowed 17 points or fewer in four straight games, giving up just 15.0 points per game during this span.

The Broncos have no problem stopping a mediocre Seattle offense that averages just 333.8 total yards per game and relies heavily on the run. Well, the Broncos' biggest strength defensively is their ability to stop the run. In fact, they are giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season. They have held each of their last four opponents to 87 or fewer rushing yards and an average of 70.0 yards per game during this span.

Denver is 8-1 ATS vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game over the last two seasons. Seattle is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on two weeks or more of rest. Denver is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Broncos are 22-11 ATS in all games over the past two seasons. Bet the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

15* Magic/Celtics Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic just recently got back their best player in center Nikola Vucevic. He played in his second game after missing 15 of the team's previous 16 contests because of a concussion. He helped guide the Magic to a 13-102 win over Milwaukee last time out Friday.

Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is averaging 13.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game this season. The Magic are a much better team on both sides of the ball with him in the lineup.

Boston has been dealing with injury issues of its own. It has lost 16 of its last 18 games coming into this one. Jerryd Bayless remains out with a toe injury, while Avery Bradley is expected to play through an ankle injury. Gerald Wallace is questionable for personal reasons Sunday.

I really believe it's more a distraction for the home team when playing on Super Bowl Sunday. There's no question that these players have Super Bowl parties to attend after the game in Boston. They'll be looking forward to those instead of focusing on basketball. I look for this game to be all business for the Magic, who don't have to worry about Super Bowl plans on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a home win, in February games are 53-21 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Boston is 1-10 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +14.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Louisville on the road by a final of 69-66 as a 9-point underdog Thursday. Now, they have a game against UConn on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

It's only human nature for the Bearcats to show up lacking focus today off such a big win and with a great opponent on deck. I also believe this team is overvalued due to their current 13-game winning streak. Four of their last five wins have come by 11 points or less.

One of those was a 61-54 win at South Florida on January 18. So, the Bulls will be out for revenge in this game. That's another reason that the Bearcats will find it hard being motivated enough to win this game by 15-plus having already beaten the Bulls. I fully expect this one to go down to the wire.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-37 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 7-30 ATS in its last 37 Sunday games. South Florida is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series, including 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Cincinnati. Take South Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 182

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies today. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as both teams struggle offensively.

Since January 10, the Grizzlies are allowing an NBA-best 88.8 points per game, which is 6.0 ppg less than second-place Chicago. They are also yielding a league-best 41.7 field-goal percentage over this span. They haven't allow an opponent to score more than 90 during their current five-game winning streak.

That doesn't bode well for the Bucks (8-38), who are scoring an NBA-low 91.9 points per game this season. The good news for the Bucks is that the Grizzlies haven't reached 100 points in any of their last nine games. Plus, leading scorer Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 apg) is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury. This offense will really be out of sync if Conley cannot go.

These teams have played in defensive battles in each of their last two meetings. Memphis won 90-80 at home in their final meeting of 2012-13 for 170 combined points. Memphis also won their first meeting of 2013-14 with an 82-77 road victory on January 15 for 159 combined points. I don't expect this game to come close to 180 combined points, either.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of less than 25% over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. Tom Thibodeau keeps producing a winner no matter who is on the floor. It's like they didn't even lose their best player in Derrick Rose, or trade away one of their best players in Luol Deng.

Thibodeau could win coach of the year every year with what he's doing with this team. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 games overall, which includes a 98-86 road victory at San Antonio last time out on Wednesday. That means they've had two days' rest heading into this one.

New Orleans has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. It remains without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). It simply has not been able to make up for these two huge losses, and now leading scorer Anthony Davis (20.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) is banged up with a finger injury.

Chicago wants revenge from a 128-131 overtime loss at home to the Pelicans in their first meeting of the season. That was a rare win for the Pelicans in this series as the Bulls have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series.

The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans dating back to 2009. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 8th game in 12 days, and their 11th game in 17 days. They simply don't have anything left in the tank, and that will show tonight against the Wizards.

Washington will be out for revenge from a 105-106 road loss at Oklahoma City on November 10 as an 8.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. The thing about the Wizards is that they have a superstar stopper in Trevor Ariza, who can guard guys like Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony as well as just about anyone in the league.

The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season of late, winning six of their last 10 games overall. That includes victories over Miami, Chicago (twice), Phoenix and Golden State, which equates to five wins over playoff contenders during this stretch. They have bounced back to win from each of their last four losses as well.

Washington is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 53-34 ATS in their last 87 games as an underdog. Washington is 13-3 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Georgetown Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgetown +7.5

The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued after their big overtime win at Iowa on Tuesday. They were able to win that game with a depleted roster, which was a huge win for the program. It's only human nature for them to come back and suffer a letdown as they step out of conference to face Georgetown Saturday.

Michigan State is still expected to be without its two best post players in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Some teams can play without their best players for a couple games, but over time it catches up to them.

I look for the Hoyas to be very competitive today against the short-handed Spartans and to likely pull off the upset. This Georgetown team is highly motivated for a win after losing five straight coming in, including a 5-point loss to Villanova last time out. The Hoyas will have a big home-court advantage as this game will be played in Madison Square Garden.

Tom Izzo is 4-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of Michigan State. This trend just goes to show how the Spartans have had letdowns following a big road game under Izzo. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in February games over the past two seasons. The Hoyas are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Georgetown Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are showing tremendous value as only a 3-point home favorite over Kansas State this afternoon. I'll take advantage and back them in a game I look for them to run away with.

Kansas State is a tremendous home team with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. However, the Wildcats have really struggled on the road throughout the years, and that has not changed this year. They are 1-3 in true road games this season.

West Virginia has won two of its last three games and is a respectable 4-4 in Big 12 play this season. What's most amazing about that is the fact that it has won three Big 12 road games already. This team will be out for revenge from an ugly loss at Kansas State on January 18, so the motivation will be on the Mountaineers' side.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +10.5

The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Tech Red Raiders are battling for the basement of the Big 12 this season. The Frogs have yet to win a Big 12 game, while the Raiders only have two victories within the conference.

One of those wins for Texas Tech came against TCU in a 60-49 road victory on January 18. That places the Horned Frogs in revenge mode, and also extra motivated for their first win of the season. This will be their best chance to get one, and I look for them to put up a great fight today.

All three meetings between these teams have been decided by 11 points or less over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs have lost all three of those games, so that adds even more fuel to the fire for them. There's no question this team is improved from a year ago.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TCU) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 77-34 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Texas Tech is 6-21 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take TCU Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most improved teams in the league this season. At 24-21, they are a legitimate threat to get the No. 3 seed in the East. But playing in Canada, this team consistently has gone under the radar.

The Raptors should not be an underdog against the depleted Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is expected to be without Ty Lawson (shoulder) and Nate Robinson (knee). It was already without Andre Miller, so essentially it is missing its top three points guards.

Those injuries contributed to an ugly 98-101 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out. Lawson is irreplaceable, averaging 17.9 points and 8.9 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, Toronto is expected to get back leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (21.8 ppg) tonight after a two-game absence.

The Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Toronto is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days' rest. The Raptors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. These last three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Friday.