Winning Sports Picks

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105)

The Cincinnati Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored 2 runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games and are hitting just .186 and scoring 2.7 runs per game this season.  The Padres will make easy work of them tonight.

Joe Musgrove will shut down this putrid Cincinnati offense.  Musgrove is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 19 innings with 21 K's.  He's becoming the ace of this rotation.

Reiver Sanmartin is 0-2 with an 11.75 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.  He faced the Padres in his last start on April 19th and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 2-6 loss opposite Musgrove.

Not only are the Reds 1-11 in their last 12 games overall, all 11 losses have come by two runs or more.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with Doncic back and what's at stake in Game 5 with this series tied 2-2 heading back to Dallas.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Utah attempted 42 free throws and still managed just 100 points last game.  The Mavericks have them locked down defensively right now.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Mavericks last 68 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors played two great games in Toronto and really this series should be tied 2-2.  But the 76ers won Game 3 despite not leading a single second in regulation.  And in Game 4 they failed to close out the series when they had the Raptors by the balls.

I think the 76ers are going to regret not closing it out, and the Raptors are live underdogs in Game 5 tonight as 7.5-point dogs.  The FT shooting disparity that gave the 76ers a 2-0 series lead has gone away, and the Raptors have gotten much more aggressive in attacking the rim the past two games.

Joel Embiid is nursing a thumb injury that he is playing through, but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4.  We've seen Doc Rivers and James Harden collapse in playoff series previously.  All the pressure is on the 76ers to close this out in Game 5 and the Raptors feel like they are free rolling at this point after being down 3-0.  They should come out loose while the 76ers will be tight tonight.

Philadelphia has beaten Toronto by more than 7 points just twice in the last 16 meetings, making for a 14-2 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +137

I've been riding the St. Louis Cardinals and I'm going to continue to ride them until the oddsmakers adjust to how good this team really is.  They are 9-5 this season despite playing 10 road games compared to four home games.  They are 3-1 at home and are now back home hosting the New York Mets.

The Cardinals have an underrated lineup, one of the top bullpens in baseball and the underrated Miles Mikolas on the mound tonight.  Mikolas is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in three starts this season and the Cardinals are 3-0 in his three starts despite being underdogs in two of them.

No question Max Scherzer is one of the best starters in baseball, but he and the Mets should not be this big of road favorites over the Cardinals tonight.  The Mets have feasted on a pretty weak schedule en route to their 12-5 starts with two of their last three series coming against the Diamondbacks.  They also swept the Nationals in three games to open the season.

Mikolas is a perfect 6-0 against the money line as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  New York is 11-30 in its last 41 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 13-4 in its last 17 games as underdogs.  The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games overall.  St. Louis is 10-3 in its last 13 meetings with New York.  Roll with the Cardinals Monday.

20* Suns/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The Suns and Pelicans have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games after going UNDER in Game 1.  I think we are getting value with the UNDER in Game 4 based off of the results in the last two games.  This total should be set much lower than 216 tonight.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 2, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

Game 3 was played at a snail's pace and that will be the case again for Game 4.  The Suns just aren't as explosive on offense without their best player in Devin Booker, and they have to go to more of a half court game.  The Pelicans don't have great 3-point shooting and settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers, which makes them a great UNDER candidate.  They also rank just 21st in pace and 20th in offensive efficiency.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 3 in the 4th quarter and letting the Hawks back in this series.  Look for them to shut the door here and get a win and cover in Game 4.

I made the mistake of backing a team that doesn't rebound or play defense in the Nets yesterday.  I'm not making the same mistake today.  The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  I'll back the better defensive team here in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 17-4 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 playoff games as favorites.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Miami is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -179

The Seattle Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They have scored 4 runs or more in all seven victories and 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games overall.  I'm willing to lay the big juice on them today due to their massive advantage on the mound in this one.

Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last year and gives the Mariners a bonafide ace at the top of their rotation.  He has been solid this season through three starts with a 4.19 ERA and 1.242 WHIP.  Ray has posted a 1.35 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.

Carlos Hernandez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.963 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 8 2/3 innings with only one strikeout.  The Mariners are hitting .284 and scoring 7.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  

Seattle is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Kansas City is 3-8 in its last 11 games overall.  The Royals have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games overall.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -135

The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-4 this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game.  They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.06 ERA in 52 1/3 innings pitched.

The Cincinnati Reds are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored two or fewer runs in eight consecutive games.  They are hitting just .180 and scoring 2.6 runs per game this season.  They are broken right now and missing three key players in C Stephenson, 3B Moustakas, and 2B India.

Adam Wainwright just keeps on ticking.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He has picked up where he left off, going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season.  He will shut down this atrocious Cincinnati lineup.

Nick Lodolo is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season.  He has already allowed 8 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers in 9 innings pitched.  The Cardinals will feast on him today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Boston Celtics all they could handle in Games 1 and 2 in Boston.  Now they are in must-win mode here in Game 3 at home and I expect them to get the win and cover.  It was a hostile atmosphere in Boston with all the controversy surrounding Kyrie Irving and they actually handled themselves pretty well.

It will be a much more friendly atmosphere in Brooklyn this time around, and I expect the Nets' role players to answer the bell here to help out Irving and Kevin Durant.  Durant has been disappointing through two games in this series, but he has too much pride to come up short again.  

He went 4-of-17 in Game 2 and 9-of-24 in Game 1.  That's a combined 13-of-41 (31.7%) through two games.  It's amazing that the Nets had a chance to win both of those games in the closing seconds with Durant playing that poorly.  Look for him to have a monster game to lead the Nets to victory and save their season here tonight.

Brooklyn is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Boston.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -108

The St. Louis Cardinals are 8-4 this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game.  They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings pitched.

The Cincinnati Reds are 0-10 in their last 10 games overall.  They have scored two or fewer runs in seven consecutive games.  They are hitting just .184 and scoring 2.8 runs per game this season.  They are broken right now and missing four key players in C Stephenson, 3B Moustakas, 2B India and CF Naquin.

Dakota Hudson should shut down the struggling Reds.  Hudson has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Tyler Mahle is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals.  Mahle has allowed 11 runs, 8 earned, in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 tonight.  They were 4.5-point road dogs in Game 1, 7.5-point road dogs in Game 2 and 2-point home dogs in Game 3.  They went 0-3 ATS and now are getting their best price of the series as 3.5-point home dogs in Game 4.

Note that they were 4.5-point road dogs at full strength.  They will be at full strength here with the return of Scottie Barnes and are 3.5-point home dogs.  That's a massive adjustment and one that I'll gladly take advantage of.  The Raptors are much better than they have shown in the first three games of this series.

Keep in mind the 76ers didn't lead Game 3 until overtime, so the Raptors were in control of that game even without Barnes.  Getting him back with give them a big offensive punch.  The 76ers will be without Matisse Thybulle, and his defensive presence will be felt.  Joel Embiid is also dealing with a sore thumb, though he's expected to play.

Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Philadelphia is 9-18 ATS off a road win this season.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Suns/Pelicans ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1

The Phoenix Suns have proven all season that they can win games without Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker.  They won't blink with Booker being out now as they are one of the deepest teams in the entire NBA and work together as a team as well as anyone.

The Suns go from being 10-point favorites in Game 1 to 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 1-point favorites in Game 3.  This is too big of an adjustment for the Booker injury and the home-court advantage for the Pelicans.  The Suns are 32-9 SU on the road this season.

I'm confident the Suns will make the defensive adjustments and the Pelicans will not shoot as well as they did in Game 2.  They shot 54.8% from the field and a ridiculous 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range.  This is a poor shooting Pelicans team that is only making 33.5% from 3 on the season.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more more this season.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS when revenging any loss this season.  Phoenix is 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs (New Orleans) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog with a losing record on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -124

The Seattle Mariners are on a roll right now in going 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after a 5-0 blown lead to the Rangers in which they gave up four unearned runs.  They have scored 4 or more runs in six of their last seven games.

Now the Mariners should tee off on Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals tonight.  Keller has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle.

Chris Flexen went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mariners last season.  He is off to a shaky start this season, which is why we are getting him at a discount.  Flexen faced the Royals once last year and held them to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-2 victory.

Seattle is 9-2 in its last 11 during Game 1 of a series.  The Mariners are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  Seattle is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They have a solid lineup that is scoring 4.5 runs per game and a dynamite bullpen that sports a 2.15 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 46 innings pitched.  They just don't have the name value in their starting rotation, which is why they are underrated.

Steven Matz had a great season in Toronto last season going 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts.  That was in the tough AL East, and the Cardinals made a great signing this offseason by snatching him up.  He is off to a slow start, which is why he is such a short favorite here, and it's a great time to 'buy low'.

The Cincinnati Reds are broken.  They are 2-11 this season and hitting .177 as a team while scoring just 2.8 runs per game.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings.  Matz will shut them down, and the Cardinals will score enough runs off of prospect Hunter Greene to get the victory.  Greene has posted a 4.36 ERA in two starts this season while already allowing three homers in 10 1/3 innings.

The Reds are 0-9 in their last nine games overall and have scored two runs or fewer in six consecutive games.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -125

The Seattle Mariners are one of the most underrated teams in baseball and have the best squad they have had in years.  They are 4-1 at home this season and looking to sweep the Rangers after winning 6-2 and 4-2 in the first two games of this series.

The Rangers have the worst pitching staff in baseball which is why they are just 2-9 this season.  Opponents are hitting .288 and scoring 6.3 runs per game against the Rangers.  Taylor Hearn is 0-1 with a 4.69 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his two starts for the Rangers this season.  Texas' bullpen has a 5.43 ERA while allowing 33 earned runs in 54 2/3 innings.

Marco Gonzales has been solid in two starts for the Mariners this season with a 3.00 ERA against the Astros and Twins.  Gonzalez owns the Rangers, going 8-6 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 16 career starts against them, including 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his final three starts against them last season while allowing just 2 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.   Hearn is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in three career starts against the Mariners.

Texas is 16-53 in its last 69 road games.  The Rangers are 4-25 in their last 29 road games vs. AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  Seattle is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.  Take the Mariners Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 210.5

The Dallas Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and prefer to slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

The total was 208 for Game 1 and these teams combined for just 192 points.  The total was 207 for Game 2 and they combined for 214 points.  This total has been set higher after that Game 2 performance and with the anticipation that Luka Doncic may return.  Even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100% with that calf injury.

It's going to be hard to see the Mavericks shoot as well as they did in Game 2 where they shot 22-of-47 (46.8%) from 3-point range.  The Jazz weren't bad themselves as they shot 11-of-29 (37.9%) from distance.  Each of the first two games in this series were played at snail's paces, and I think that will be the case in Game 3 again, so I'll take my chances with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 43-19 in Mavericks last 62 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 23-11-1 in Jazz last 35 games as favorites.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +116

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game behind one of the best lineups in the National League.  Their bullpen has posted a 1.76 ERA in 41 innings pitched.  It's because they don't have name value in their starting rotation that they remain undervalued.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals as underdogs today to the lowly Miami Marlins, who are hitting .231 and scoring 3.6 runs per game as a team.  They have a lot of flashy young starters in their rotation and that's why they get respect.  Pablo Lopez is one of those flashy starters, but the Marlins have lost both of his career starts against the Cardinals due to a lack of run support.

Jordan Hicks will get his first start of the season for the Cardinals.  He has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in his four seasons in the big leagues.  He has pitched four shutout innings while allowing just three base runners thus far this season.  He will shut down the Marlins before turning it over to this dominant St. Louis bullpen.

The Cardinals are 26-8 in their last 34 road games.  St. Louis is 39-14 in its last 53 trips to Miami.  The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight meetings with the Marlins.  Miami is 17-51 in its last 68 games after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

The Bulls played with a sense of urgency in Game 1 and showed they could hang with the Bucks, losing  86-93 as 10.5-point underdogs.  What really stood out in that game is how poorly the Big 3 of Chicago in Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine shot the ball and they still only lost by 7.  Those 3 combined to shoot just 21-of-71 (29.6%) from the floor and 4-of-22 (18.2%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, which makes it likely they cover this 10-point spread.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points, similar to the 7-point margin in Game 1 of this series when both teams were 'all in'.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +2

I love the Toronto Raptors tonight in this must-win situation.  They return home after losing two disappointing, non-competitive games against the 76ers in Philadelphia.  Home-court advantage and coaching adjustment will make all the difference for the Raptors in Game 3 as they win this game outright.

Everything has gone perfect for the 76ers thus far in this series.  They shot 51.2% as a team, 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and 29-of-34 (85.3%) from the FT line in Game 1.  They followed that up with 52.2% shooting, 14-of-30 (64.7%) from 3-point range and 26-of-30 (86.7%) from the FT line in Game 2.

The 76ers are shooting better than the Raptors in this series from 3-point range, and they have attempted 64 FT compared to 35 for the Raptors and made 55 FT compared to 29 for the Raptors.  That has been the difference.  I highly doubt the whistle will go so much in favor of the 76ers in Toronto like it has in Philadelphia in this series.  The 76ers won't have SG Mattisse Thybulle for this one, arguably their best defender.

Toronto is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following two straight losses by 15 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs.  a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS In its last four games as a home underdog.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +129

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game behind one of the best lineups in the National League.  Their bullpen has posted a 1.95 ERA in 37 innings pitched.  It's because they don't have name value in their starting rotation that they remain undervalued.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals as underdogs today to the lowly Miami Marlins, who are hitting .239 and scoring 4.0 runs per game as a team.  They have a lot of flashy young starters in their rotation and that's why they get respect.  Sandy Alcantara is one of those starters, who has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two starts this season.  Alcantara is 0-3 in three career starts against St. Louis.

Miles Mikolas is off to a solid start this season at 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in two starts.  Mikolas is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in five career starts against the Marlins.  He and the Cardinals should not be underdogs in this game tonight.

The Cardinals are 25-8 in their last 33 road games.  St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 trips to Miami.  The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins.  Miami is 17-50 in its last 67 games after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -128

The Seattle Mariners should be bigger favorites over the Texas Rangers with 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray taking the ball.  Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season with a whopping 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings.

Ray should shut down a poor Texas lineup that is off to just a 2-7 start this season.  The Rangers have a terrible pitching staff as well and will give the ball to Jon Gray, who allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings to the Blue Jays in an 8-10 loss in his first start this season.  Ray fired 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 10-2 win over Texas in his lone start against the Rangers last season.

Texas is 4-26 in its last 30 road games vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The Rangers are 16-51 in their last 67 road games.  The Mariners are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  Seattle is 8-2 in its last 10 during Game 1 of a series.  The Mariners are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings and 23-7 in the last 30 meetings in Seattle.  Take the Mariners Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight after getting upset in Game 1.  A lot went right for the Timberwolves in that contest as they scored 130 points and shot 50% as a team, went 16-of-41 (39%) from 3-point range and 24-of-27 (88.9%) from the FT line.

Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Grizzlies, who shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and missed 11 free throws.  They will be much sharper offensively in Game 2, and I look for the Timberwolves to take a step back offensively.  Minnesota won't be able to match Memphis' intensity in this one, either.

Memphis won by 7 and 8 points in its first two home meetings with Minnesota this season.  I look for the Grizzlies to win by 7-plus points again here to cover this 6.5-point spread, and actually expect them to win by double-digits in a rout.

Memphis is 19-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Grizzlies are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game this season and a tremendous bullpen that has posted a 2.14 ERA thus far.

I'll gladly fade the Miami Marlins, who are hitting .239 and scoring 4.3 runs per game as a team this season.  I'll also gladly fade Miami starter Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-11 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in his four seasons in the big leagues across 171 1/3 innings pitched.

I'll gladly back Adam Wainwright, who just keeps on ticking.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season and has shown no signs of slowing down.  Wainwright is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Marlins.

The Cardinals are 24-7 in their last 31 games overall.  St. Louis is 14-3 in its last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 9-1 in its last 10 road games vs. a southpaw.  The Cardinals are 15-3 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 40-16 in the last 56 meetings in Miami and 6-0 in the last six meetings overall.  Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

The Colorado Rockies have been impressive this season en route to a 6-3 start.  They are hitting .277 as a team and scoring 5.1 runs per game.  They were dominant at home last year and should not be big home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball as he is continuously priced as an elite starter.  Nola is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts while season while allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rockies.

Chad Kuhl held the Rangers to one earned run in 4 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory at Texas in his first start this season.  Kuhl has never lost to the Phillies, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 21-5 in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 home meetings with the Phillies.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 2 again Monday after cashing in the UNDER in Game 1 in a 99-93 final for just 192 combined points.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

Dallas is 9-1 UNDER In home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Mavericks are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight home games after a combined score of 195 points or less.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 47-19-1 in Mavericks last 67 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 2 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

This is too big of an adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series.  The Raptors go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 7.5-point dogs in Game 2.  I realize Scottie Barnes is out, but he's not worth 3 points to the spread.

The 76ers played the perfect Game 1 as their role players crushed it and they shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.  The Raptors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and underrated head coach Nick Nurse will make the proper adjustments to make them much more competitive in Game 2.

That was a rare blowout in this series.  In fact, each of the previous eight games between the 76ers and Raptors were decided by 7 points or less.  Toronto has only lost one of its last 13 games against Philadelphia by more than 7 points, which makes for a 12-1 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +11

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

Now the Bulls will come back with an inspired effort in Game 1 to prove they can play with the defending champs.  I don't see the Bucks playing with that same sense of urgency in these playoffs as they did last year when they won the title.  And that starts to show in Game 1 tonight.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Chicago) - playing with triple revenge and on three or more days' rest are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1996.  The Bulls are fully healthy now with the exception of Lonzo Ball and ready to get back to how they were playing in the first half of the season.  Bet the Bulls in Game 1 Sunday.

15* Rays/White Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -103

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost four straight coming in after a 4-1 start to the season.  Now they will be looking to avoid the sweep after a pair of one-run losses to the White Sox in the first two games of this series.

I'll gladly fade gas can Vincent Velasquez.  He went 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 94 1/3 innings last season.  He posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in spring training while allowing three homers and seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.

Tampa Bay is 35-17 in its last 52 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Roll with the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate today over the Baltimore Orioles that should have them winning this game by two runs or more with ease.  I cashed in the Yankees -1.5 in their 5-2 victory yesterday and I'm back on them again on the Run Line today.

Nestor Cortes was sharp in his first start this season in holding the potent Blue Jays without a single run in 4 1/3 innings while allowing just three base runners and registering 5 K's.  Cortes has posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles, both of which came last season.

Bruce Zimmerman is a gas can.  He allowed 4 earned runs, two homers and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss to the Yankees in his only start against them last season.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues.

The Orioles are hitting .198 and scoring 2.0 runs per game this season.  Baltimore is 8-29 in its last 37 games as a home dog of +125 to +175 and losing by 2.7 runs per game.  The Orioles are 1-15 in their last 16 home games vs. good fielding teams that average 0.5 or fewer errors per game and losing by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  New York is 7-0 in its last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 42-15 in the last 57 meetings, including 25-8 in the last 33 meetings in Baltimore.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have too much firepower throughout their lineup to be held down for much longer.  I fully expect them to break out against the Baltimore Orioles today after losing 2-1 as -210 favorites yesterday.  So I'll back them on the Run Line here Saturday.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound with Jameson Taillon over Tyler Wells.  Taillon has posted a 3.27 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles.  He held the potent Blue Jays to two earned runs in five innings with only five base runners allowed in his first start this season.

Wells was rocked by the Rays for four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of an 8-0 defeat in his first start this season.  It was his first career start and he isn't going to go deep in this game either.  The Yankees will get him out of there early and then feast on Baltimore's bullpen.  The Orioles are hitting just .196 and scoring 2.0 runs per game this season.

The Orioles are 16-48 in their last 64 games overall.  Taillon's teams are 21-7 in his last 28 road starts following a loss.  Baltimore is 8-28 in its last 36 games as a home dog of +125 to +175 and losing by 2.7 runs per game.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  New York is 41-15 in the last 56 meetings and 24-8 in the last 32 meetings in Baltimore.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Brewers OVER 8.5

The St. Louis Cardinals have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are hitting .271 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Milwaukee Brewers have a better lineup than they have shown at this point in the season.

The Brewers should get right against Steven Matz, who allowed 7 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings of a 4-9 loss to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in his first start this season.  The Cardinals should stay hot at the plate against Adrian Houser, who allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Orioles.

Houser is 20-6 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Jazz/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 210

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 1 Saturday.

I also like the fact that this is an early game with a 1:00 EST tip as both teams aren't familiar with playing games this early in the day.  I don't expect either team to be clicking offensively.  The Jazz are a dynamite defensive team when Rudy Gobert is on the court, and he is healthy for the playoffs now.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Jazz last 13 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER Is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 46-19-1 in Mavericks last 66 home games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

Note: Tough break on Paul George being out with COVID.  I still like the Clippers to win the game straight up.  The current line after the news is roughly PK and I would still recommend a bet at or around that number.

The Los Angeles Clippers were playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into their play-in game with the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games of the regular season where they got both Paul George and Norman Powell back from injury.

For 3.5 quarters, the Clippers had the Timberwolves by the balls.  But things changed after Karl-Anthony Towns went out.  The Clippers blew a double-digit lead as the Timberwolves went small ball and switched everything on defense, which the Clippers struggled with.  They will make the proper adjustments, and there is a good chance they get Luke Kennard back from injury to provide a shooting punch.

The Clippers just beat the Pelicans 119-100 at home on April 3rd as 2-point favorites.  That was an important result because both teams were at full strength, which they are now too.  Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas all played for the Pelicans and all three struggled, combining to go 14-of-35 from the floor for just 44 points.  The Clippers had seven players score in double figures in the win.

The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA and I trust him to make the right moves to put the Clippers in position to win and cover this game and advance as the #8 seed in the playoffs.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +142

The St. Louis Cardinals have a much better lineup than the Milwaukee Brewers and should not be this big of underdogs let alone underdogs at all today because of it.  The Brewers are hitting .221 and scoring 3.3 runs per game this season.  The Cardinals are hitting .252 and scoring 5.2 runs per game.

Miles Mikolas is 5-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.  Freddy Peralta has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles should easily combine for 9 or more runs tonight.  The forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket as well.  Temperatures will be in the 60's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Camden Yards.

Both Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Lyles are coming off suspect opening starts.  Montgomery allowed 3 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Red Sox, while Lyles allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings against the Rays.

Lyles is 28-12 OVER in his career as a home underdog of +125 or higher.  Lyles is 9-1 OVER in his last 10 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  The OVER is 58-27-1 in the last 86 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8.5

Both offenses got going last night in a 6-4 win by the Blue Jays.  It should be more of the same tonight with the forecast calling for temperatures in the upper-60's and 9 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.

Luis Severino allowed two runs, five hits and a homer in three innings against the Red Sox in his first start this season.  He has posted a 4.04 ERA in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays, who have the best lineup in baseball this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Severino's last three starts against Toronto.

Kevin Gausman allowed three runs and eight hits in five innings against the Rangers in his first start this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Gausman's last seven starts against the Yankees.  He has gone 1-3 with an 8.26 ERA in his last seven starts against New York while allowing 30 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This despite being locked into their playoff spot for a few games and playing backups and resting guys.

The Spurs have really shown off their depth here down the stretch.  They have just one loss by more than 6 points in their last 11 games.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the only guy they are missing being Doug McDermott, who is a defensive liability anyway.

The Pelicans are getting too much credit for how they played down the stretch.  But their last five wins all came against non-playoff teams in the Lakers (twice), Blazers (twice) and Kings.  They lost by 19 points or more to the three playoff teams they played in their final eight games.

The Spurs have owned the Pelicans in this head-to-head series this season.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright road wins as 6-point road underdogs, which is what they are in this play-in game as well.  Both of those wins have come since mid-February including a win on March 26th in New Orleans.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +110

Any chance I get to back 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray as an underdog I'm going to take advantage.  He went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 32 starts last season with a whopping 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, allowing just one earned run in seven innings against the Twins in his first start this season.

Ray is a much better starter than Dallas Keuchel, who was a disaster last season for the White Sox and it's amazing he has kept his job in this rotation.  Keuchel went 9-9 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 30 starts for the White Sox last season with only 95 K's in 162 innings.  The Mariners should get right on offense today against the left-hander.

Ray has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.835 WHIP with 27 K's in 13 1/3 innings in two career starts against the White Sox, both of which came last season.  The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

I've been pretty stubborn on these Blue Jays' OVERS because they have the best lineup in baseball.  They are up against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Yankees as well.  After both lineups were held in check in the first two games of this series, I expect them to break out tonight.

Jose Berrios was rocked for 4 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in a 10-8 win over the Rangers in his first start this season.  Berrios is 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees.  The OVER is 4-0 in Berrios' last four starts against New York.

Gerrit Cole allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his final start against the Blue Jays last season.  Cole allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings in his first start this season, a 6-5 win over the Red Sox.  He and Berrios are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this low 8-run total tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 1 ranked team in offensive efficiency since January 1st.  They have been tough to tame when Russell, Towns and Edwards have been healthy.  In fact, they are fully healthy heading into the playoffs and will be a dangerous out for anyone.  This is a much deeper team than they get credit for.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect after winning five straight games to close out the season.  But only one of those five opponents was actually trying to win the game, and that was the Pelicans.  Four of the wins came at home and the other was a road win over the Bucks' backups.  These five wins have given bettors false hope on this team.

Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Timberwolves are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at the Target Center in Minneapolis tonight as these fans have been yearning for a winner for years and they absolutely love this team, and for good reason.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -128

The Los Angeles Dodgers have several advantages in this game that should have them being bigger favorites over the Minnesota Twins.  They have the advantage on the mound, and they have the advantage of having yesterday off while the Twins will be playing for a 5th consecutive day.

Andrew Heaney has faced the Twins three times in his career, two of which came last season.  Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in those three career starts against them with his teams going 3-0 in those games.  The Dodgers are high enough on him to add them to their rotation, which says a lot about what they think of him.

Chris Archer has fallen off a cliff the last few seasons.  He went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 23 starts with the Pirates in 2019 and has battled injury each of the last two seasons.  Archer has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in three career starts against them.  Roll with the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 9

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees were held in check yesterday.  These two lineups are too good to be held down two days in a row, and these two starting pitchers are worse tonight in this matchup.

Yusei Kikuchi is 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in three seasons in the big leagues.  He went 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in three spring training starts.  Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.  Nestor Cortes is 7-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in four seasons in the big leagues.

The forecast looks good for an OVER at Yankee Stadium tonight with temps in the upper-60's and 7 MPH winds blowing out to right center.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Jays last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Cavaliers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets cannot be trusted laying this big of a number at home.  They don't play defense, so asking them to win by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  I'll gladly take the value with the Cleveland Cavaliers catching 9.5 points in this play-in game.

All four games between the Cavaliers and Nets this season went down to the wire and were decided by 11 points or fewer.  I expect more of the same here in their 5th meeting, and for the Cavaliers to shoot much better than the 29.6% (8-of-27) they shot from 3 in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Cavaliers are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS win.  The Nets are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Brooklyn is a woeful 3-23 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.  Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Twins OVER 9

Dylan Bundy is an absolute gas can.  He went 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 90 2/3 innings for the Angels last season.  I can't believe the Twins picked him up in the offseason.  He will get lit up tonight by this underrated Seattle lineup.

Chris Flexen is 17-17 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.494 WHIP in four years in the big leagues for the Mariners.  He will also get rocked by a potent Twins lineup that busted out for 10 runs and six homers yesterday.

The weather report is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket as well.  Temperatures will be in the upper-50's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.

The OVER is 13-3 in Flexen's 16 career starts as an underdog of +100 or higher.  The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9

Arguably the two best lineups in all of baseball square off tonight when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the New York Yankees for Game 1 of this series.  Expect offensive fireworks in this one as it sails OVER this 9-run total.

The Blue Jays managed 20 runs and gave up 23 runs in their three games against the Rangers over the weekend.  They should get theirs against Jameson Taillon, who is 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.

Alek Manoah had a promising rookie season last year for the Blue Jays but is clearly due for some regression.  Now that these teams have plenty of tape on him they should be able to get to him this season more often than they did last year.

The OVER is 14-4 in Taillon's last 18 night starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Orioles OVER 9

Two gas cans square off today in what should be a slug fest in Baltimore.  Adrian Houser goes for the Brewers and Bruce Zimmerman goes for the Orioles.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 71 1/3 innings in two seasons in the big leagues for the Orioles.

It will be 62 degrees in Baltimore this afternoon with 9 MPH winds blowing out to left-center to help aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Houser is a perfect 11-0 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last three seasons.  Houser is 9-0 OVER as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last three years.  Baltimore is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after scoring three runs or less in three straight games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are still playing for seeding.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three of the six wins coming against playoff teams.  The six wins have come by an average of 19 points per game.

Now they host a San Antonio Spurs team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the 10th seed in the West.  They will be traveling to face New Orleans in the play-in round on Wednesday.  They are more concerned with resting their players and getting them healthy rather than winning this game.  That's especially the case playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-100 home loss to the Warriors last night.

The Mavericks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  Expect them to roll by double-digits tonight and cover this number.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -17

The Utah Jazz still have seeding at stake in the West.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been blown out on a regular basis and are openly tanking.  Their numbers down the stretch are mind-blowing.

The Blazers are 2-20 SU & 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  A whopping 10 of those losses have come by 30 points or more, and 14 of those losses by 17 points or more.  They lost to the Mavericks by 50 and the Pelicans by 33 in their last two games coming in.

One of those 30-plus point losses came a month ago to the Jazz as they lost 85-123 as 19.5-point road underdogs.  It should be more of the same in the rematch here a month later as nothing has change for the Blazers, and the Jazz still have something to play for.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5

Two of the worst lineups in the National League have definitely been on display in the first three games of this series between Arizona and San Diego.  They have combined for 6, 3 and 7 runs in the first three games.  And now the books have once again set the total too high at 9.5 runs today.

While Blake Snell was shaky at times last year, he wasn't shaky when facing the Diamondbacks.  Indeed, Snell is 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA and 0.741 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona, four of which came last season.  The UNDER went 4-0 in those four games with combined scores of 3, 5, 2, and 6 runs.

Caleb Smith has held his own against the Padres in going 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA in six career starts against them.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in his last five starts against the Padres with combined scores of 7 runs or less in four of them.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Rockies UNDER 11.5

The first two games of this series between the Rockies and Dodgers have gone well UNDER the total.  They combined for just 8 runs in Game 1 and 5 runs in Game 2 with identical 11.5-run totals.  This total has been set at 11.5 again, and there's reason to believe it should be set a lot lower.

Julio Urias is one of the best young starters in the game and coming off a great season.  He'll be up against a Rockies lineup that is as poor as it has been in a long time.  Antonio Senzatela held the Dodgers to 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 13 innings in his final two starts against them last season.

But the main reason I'm on the UNDER is the weather report.  Temperatures will be in the low 50's with 22 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.  Those winds are going to keep these two offenses in check once again.

Colorado is 40-18 UNDER when the total is 11 or higher over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Dodgers last 17 road games with a total of 11 or higher.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockies last eight home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -112

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Brewers today.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep after getting upset in their first two games of this series by the Cubs as -165 and -145 favorites.  Now we are getting the Brewers as less than -120 favorites in the avoid the sweep game.

Freddy Peralta is the better starter in this matchup with Marcus Stroman.  Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs, and his teams are 5-1 in those six starts.  And he hasn't faced a Cubs lineup that is as poor as it is in 2022.

Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 Sunday road games.  The Cubs are 18-48 in their last 66 games as underdogs.  Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 home games.  The Brewers are 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs don't care about winning this game.  That's evident by the fact that they are resting each of their top four scorers in Murray, Johnson, Poeltl and Vassell.  They will also be without Doug McDermott, so they'll be without five of their top six scorers.

The Golden State Warriors are trying to fend off the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 3 seed in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Mavericks.  It's evident the Warriors have been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch in going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  

Golden State is trying to win this game, and thus I'm willing to lay the 5.5 points on the road with them against a Spurs team that couldn't care less.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any Toronto Total this season that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking at the OVER.  They have the best lineup in baseball and it's not really even close.  I think their pitching is suspect as well, and it should lead to many slug fests.

This is a Texas team that is a poor man's version of Toronto.  A lot of talent in the lineup but one of the worst staffs in MLB.  These teams combined for 18 runs yesterday as I easily cashed the OVER 9.  I'm back on the OVER 9 again today.

Dane Dunning went 5-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.436 WHIP across 117 2/3 innings for the Rangers last season.  Kevin Gausman was great for the Giants last year, but now he's back in the American League and his numbers will suffer as a result.

The OVER is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.  The OVER is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -128

The Chicago White Sox blew a late 3-1 lead by giving up two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings in a 5-4 loss to the Tigers.  Look for them to bounce back today behind one of the best young starters in the game.

Dylan Cease went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 32 starts for the White Sox last season with 226 K's in 165 2/3 innings.  His stuff is absolutely electric.  Cease has owned the Tigers, going 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

The White Sox are 37-17 in the last 54 meetings.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after playing a road game at Golden State Thursday night.  They are likely to continue to rest LeBron, Davis and Westbrook and now their lack of depth makes this an even worse spot for them.

One thing you can't say about the Oklahoma City Thunder is that they don't play hard night in and night out.  They have been banged up all season and yet have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA in going 49-29-2 ATS.  They have gone 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall so they are trying to win games here down the stretch.

Asking the woeful Lakers to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much.  The Thunder are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 road games.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. at eam with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  Take the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Bulls OVER 227.5

The books have set the bar too low for this game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets tonight.  These are two great OVER teams, especially the Hornets.  They rank 4th in pace, 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  The Bulls rank 11th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.

These teams have played twice already this season and both were shootouts that went OVER this total.  They combined for 252 points in their first meeting and 230 points in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same here with both teams almost at full strength.

The Bulls have really been poor defensively here down the stretch.  They have allowed 117, 127, 127 and 130 points in their last four games overall.  The Hornets haven't been much better, allowing 113 or more points in four of their last five, including 144 points twice in regulation.  But they have scored 114 or more points in four straight now.

Chicago is 11-2 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Bulls are 12-3 OVER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Charlotte is 48-28 OVER in its last 76 road games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hornets last six road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

Due to losses by the 76ers and Celtics Thursday night, the Miami Heat clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference without even having to play.  It's safe to say the Heat are going to play it cautiously now over the final two games this season and likely rest their starters after achieving their goal of the No. 1 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks still have a lot to play for.  The 7th through 10th seeds in the East are all separated by two games or less.  It is important to get the 7th or 8th seeds so they don't have to win two games, which the 9th and 10th will have to do.  They are currently 9th and tied with the Nets for 8th and one game behind the Cavaliers for 7th.

The Hawks were disappointing most of the regular season, but they have picked up their play here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Hawks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Raptors.  They are in playoff mode right now and should not be underdogs to the Heat given what's at stake for both teams.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +14.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 13 points, and only once have they been beaten by more than 7 points.  They continue to show up every night and compete.

That's important when backing a team that's catching 14.5 points.  And the spot couldn't be much worse for the Raptors.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Four starters played at least 37 minutes last night against the 76ers.  Don't be surprised to see some of these starters rest tonight.

Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons are 19-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching too many points against the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons have only lost one of their last 24 games by more than 11 points, and only two losses by more than 9 points.  They have lost just two of their last 19 games by more than 7 points.

The Pistons will be excited to face the defending champs in their final home game of the season.  The Bucks won't be excited for this game, and they will be running on fumes, too.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a huge 127-121 home win over the Celtics last night.  

This game screams letdown spot, and don't be surprised to see the Bucks rest almost all their starters given the difficult rest spot.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any Toronto Total this season that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking at the OVER.  They have the best lineup in baseball and it's not really even close.  I think their pitching is suspect as well, and it should lead to many slug fests.

Jose Berrios has not had much success against Texas, going 2-1 with a 5.47 ERA in five career starts against them.  This is a Texas team that is a poor man's version of Toronto.  A lot of talent in the lineup but one of the worst staffs in MLB.  That's evident by the fact that Jon Gray is their opening day starter.

The OVER is 6-1 in Rangers last seven games as underdogs.  The OVER is 21-10-2 in Rangers last 33 road games with a total set of 9 to 10.5.  The OVER is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings in Toronto.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +105

The Seattle Mariners are one of my favorite sleeper teams in baseball this season.  I think they will be one of the best teams in the league and will end that playoff drought.  They have an explosive lineup that is grossly underrated with home run power throughout.

I love the addition of ace Robbie Ray at the top of their rotation.  Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.045 WHIP with 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings in Toronto last season.  He is the bonafide Ace they needed.

I like the Twins' lineup this season, but they have one of the worst rotations in baseball, and that's evident by the fact that they have Joe Ryan starting on Opening Day.  He pitched just five innings for the Twins last season.

Seattle went 43-24 (+22.2 Units) with a money line of +125 to -125 last season.  The Twins are 9-21 in their last 30 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Golden State -12.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are ready for this disastrous season to be over.  They will be sitting LeBron James and likely Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook tonight.  I give them almost zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors still have a lot to play for.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the 3rd seed in the Western Conference.  They are playing well pulling the upset of the Jazz before crushing the Kings 109-90 on the road.  Now they come in on three days' rest fresh and ready to go tonight.

The Lakers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  The Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* 2022 MLB Season Opener on Astros/Angels OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are dangerous from top to bottom, especially the top six in Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel and Tucker.

The Los Angeles Angels should be one of the better offenses in the American League with a healthy Mike Trout back.  The top four are very strong with Ohtani, Trout, Walsh and Rendon leading the way.  Rendon should have a big-time bounce back campaign.

The OVER is 5-0 in Framber Valdez's last five starts against the Angels.  He has allowed 16 earned runs in 26 innings for a 5.54 ERA in his last four starts against Los Angeles.

Shohei Ohtani has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.729 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in those five starts.

Temperatures will be in the 90's with prime scoring conditions come game time Thursday night in Los Angeles.  The OVER is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings.  The OVER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

Despite not having much to play for, the Los Angeles Clippers are trying to form some chemistry and momentum heading into the playoffs.  That is evident by the fact that they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing four playoff teams.

They beat the Jazz 121-115 at home, lost 130-135 (OT) at Chicago in a game they led the entire way until overtime, crushed the Bucks 153-119 on the road and crushed the Pelicans 119-100 at home.  They want to form chemistry with Paul George recently returning from injury.  And they are fresh and ready to go tonight playing on two days' rest having last played on Sunday.

The Suns are not fresh and don't care about winning these last few games.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 121-110 home win over the LeBron-less Lakers last night.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their previous two games showed they don't care about winning since they are already locked in to the No. 1 seed.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with a 96-117 outright loss as 14-point favorites at Oklahoma City.  

The Suns can't be trusted to show up right now, and they could rest a bunch of guys in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Los Angeles is 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 11-3 ATS in the last 14 home meetings.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bulls OVER 221.5

The Boston Celtics recently lost C Robert Williams to a knee injury.  He was the backbone of their defense even though Marcus Smart gets all the credit.  Since his loss, the Celtics have had to play more small ball and the results have made them an offensive juggernaut and an OVER machine.

Indeed, the OVER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight games overall.  They have combined for 222 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have scored at least 124 points in seven of their last nine games.  They are allowing 111.6 points per game and 48.4% shooting in their last five games so the loss of Williams has hurt defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in Bulls last three games overall.  They combined for 265 points with the Clippers, 236 points with the Heat and 233 points with the Bucks.  This has been a high-scoring series this season with the Bulls and Celtics combining for 242 and 226 points in their two meetings.

Chicago is 11-1 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Celtics last 51 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 19-0 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 8.5 points against the Dallas Mavericks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  They have lost just one of their last 19 games by more than 7 points, making for an 18-1 system pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That was evident in their lone loss during this stretch when they were blasted 103-135 at Washington as 7.5-point road favorites.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have played up to their level of competition for over a month.  They will be excited about this opportunity on the National TV stage on ESPN and will continue playing their best basketball of the season to stay within this number and possibly pull off yet another upset.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Los Angeles +12

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be catching 12 points against the Phoenix Suns given the discrepancy in motivation.  The Lakers are in must-win mode if they want to make the playoffs and took the Nuggets to the wire last time out even without LeBron James.

The Phoenix Suns are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the West and have absolutely nothing to play for.  That has showed in their level of play the last two games.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with an outright 96-117 loss as 14-point favorites at short-handed Oklahoma City.  Why would they show up tonight?  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season trying to make the playoffs here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Spurs should not be catching 9.5 points against the Denver Nuggets with how well they are playing right now.  This game means a lot more to the Spurs than it does the Nuggets.  This is a Denver team that has been overvalued for weeks, going just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Spurs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 trips to Denver.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Timberwolves OVER 237.5

Two great OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This game should see 240-plus combined points with ease tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

The Timberwolves are coming off two massive shootouts with 266 combined points against Denver and 271 combined points against Houston.  They have allowed 125 or more points in five of their last six games overall and are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  

The Wizards have gone OVER the total in three straight, combining for 237 points with Orlando, 238 points with Dallas and 246 points with Boston.  Both Boston and Dallas are not over teams as they are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.

Minnesota is 20-3 OVER in its last 23 games after allowing 130 points or more last game.  The Timberwolves are 16-2 OVER in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  The OVER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +17.5

The Brooklyn Nets shouldn't be favored by 17 points over anyone.  They have been disappointing down the stretch despite having both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving healthy.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming by 7 points over the Detroit Pistons as 14-point home favorites.

The problem with the Raptors right now is they have key injuries to their role players.  Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic and James Johnson are all on the injury report.  Without being at full strength, the Nets are going to have a problem putting away the Rockets by 18-plus points to cover this number.

Houston has quietly gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall and has not packed it in.  The Rockets haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss to the Timberwolves as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.

Brooklyn is a woeful 5-24-1 ATS in its last 30 home games, including 4-23 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  The Nets can't be laying 17.5 points here.  Take the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 255 points with the Hawks, 243 points with the Nuggets, 251 points with the Celtics and 238 points with the Pistons.

The Pacers play at a fast place and play zero defense, which has been the case for Rick Carlisle-coached teams for a few years now.  The Pacers have allowed 121 or more points in six consecutive games.  The 76ers will oblige as they recently put up 144 points against the Hornets.

Indiana is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 36-17 in Pacers last 53 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 12 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The San Antonio Spurs are battling with the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They have come up clutch down the stretch in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 133-96 win at Portland on March 23rd and a 130-111 home win over Portland on April 1st.

I like knowing that the Spurs won't be taking the Blazers lightly given what's at stake for them, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  It should be more of the same here with yet another win by 15-plus points to cover this number.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The New York Knicks have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They played like it yesterday in their 101-119 upset home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back with eight players on the injury report.  They shut down Julius Randle for the season.

The Magic aren't playing great, but the spot favors them and they shouldn't be 5-point home underdogs to a Knicks team that doesn't care about wins and is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is their most winnable game left on the schedule and I fully expect them to take advantage.

Orlando is 14-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss.  New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer Los Angeles +3

It's now or never for the Los Angeles Lakers if they want to make the playoffs.  LeBron James, Anthony Davis and company have too much pride to go away quietly.  I think we are getting the Lakers are one of their best values of the season as home underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.

This is an inconsistent Nuggets team that doesn't deserve to be favored on the road here.  The Nuggets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have not done well when they have stepped up in class, and they have narrow wins over some bad teams recently in the Thunder, Hornets and Pacers.

The Lakers have lost five straight coming in, but all five were to playoff contenders in the 76ers, Pelicans (twice), Mavericks and Jazz.  And they didn't have AD and LeBron for any of those games except the 3-point loss to the Pelicans.  They will have better chemistry in their 2nd game back together, and they should pull the upset today at home to stay alive for the playoffs.

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after four straight games where it had five or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors UNDER 218

The Golden State Warriors have been struggling offensively without Stephen Curry.  They have averaged just 103.4 points per game in their last eight games overall.  But they are still a pretty good defensive team with Draymond Green and company, ranking 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Utah Jazz are a much better defensive team with Rudy Gobert healthy, and he is right now.  I think this game will be like a playoff game with the Warriors trying to hang on to home-court advantage in the first round, and the Jazz trying to get it.  They are two games behind the Warriors and 1.5 games behind the Mavericks for the 3rd and 4th seeds.

This has been a low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, these teams have met twice since January 23rd.  The Warriors won 94-92 at home for just 186 combined points.  The Jazz got their revenge with a 111-85 home win and only 196 combined points on February 9th.  This will be their 4th and final meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Golden State is 9-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Jazz last 11 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Nuggets UNDER 242

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a couple injuries that have quietly hurt them offensively.  They are without Jaden McDaniels and Malik Beasley, two role players that were huge for them making this surge in the second half.  The Timberwolves have now scored 116 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

Denver prefers to play at a slower pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Nuggets rank 20th in the NBA in pace this season.  Both teams are in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency as well.

Head-to-head history says there's value with the UNDER.  Five of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Timberwolves have seen 239 or fewer combined points.  This will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

This total has been bet up from 233.5 all the way up to 242, so there's value with the UNDER based on the line move, too.  I also like the fact that both teams will be playing with defensive intensity tonight as the Timberwolves are trying to chase down the Nuggets for the 6th seed in the West.  This is a meaningful game, and both teams will treat it like a playoff game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls right now.  They have gone through their worst stretch of the season over the past month.  But they are now as healthy as they have been all season with only Lonzo Ball being out.  And they have shown they can play well without him.

The Clippers are getting too much respect due to getting Paul George back and completing a huge comeback to beat the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday.  They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games overall.

The key here is the Bulls are the more motivated team.  They have a lot more to play for sitting in the 5th spot trying to move up to 4th or at least avoid falling into the play-in round.  The Clippers are essentially locked in to the 8th seed in the West, 5.5 games behind 7th seed Minnesota and 4 games ahead of 9th seed New Orleans.  They really don't have anything to play for until the playoffs.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 17-0 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 10 points against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 20 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Philadelphia just played two of the best teams in the NBA and the two teams that made the NBA Finals in the Suns and Bucks in back-to-back games.  They came up short in both, and now they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Pistons after losing to those two.  This is also a tired Philadelphia team playing their 11th game in 19 days.  Take the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 11 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the playoffs right now as they are currently 9th in the West just one game ahead of the Spurs and Lakers.  One of those three teams will not make the playoffs, and the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency right now that has them playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They beat the Spurs by 33, upset the Hawks on the road, beat the Bulls by 17 at home and beat the Lakers by 8 at home.  They just got Brandon Ingram back from injury and his addition will make them a dangerous team moving forward.  Former Blazer McCollum will not be taking this game lightly, and neither will his teammates given what's at stake.

Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Blazers are 1-9 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

The Miami Heat put their differences aside and crushed Sacramento 123-100 at home on Monday.  They realize they are in 1st place in the East with three teams within 1.5 games of them.  They have a great opportunity to get home-court advantage down the stretch, and I look for them to put it all on the line tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Heat after going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Heat want revenge from two blowout losses to the Celtics in their two meetings this season.  They won't have to deal with Robert Williams, who suffered a meniscus tear two games ago and is one of the more underrated players in the league.  The Celtics will take a big hit defensively without his presence moving forward.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  The Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  It will be good for them to get on the road and get away from the distractions at home here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +3.5

The Orlando Magic are 7-9 SU & 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have not packed it in.  They have been competitive in most their losses during this stretch.  This is a favorable spot for them playing just their 3rd game in 7 days as they will be rested and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Wizards, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-107 home loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  The Wizards will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA today.  They should not be favored over the Magic given this terrible rest spot for them.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS this season.  The Magic are 19-9 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite.  The Wizards are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Washington.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 16-0 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 14 points against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 19 games by more than 11 points, making for a 19-0 system backing them pertaining to this 14-point spread.

The Nets don't have a lot to play for here down the stretch.  They are basically going to be anywhere from the 7 seed to the 10 seed to where they have to play in the play-in round no matter what.  Of course, it's beneficial for them to get the 7 or the 8 over the 9 or the 10, but I don't think they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency.

The Nets are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Brooklyn is 5-23 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Pistons are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Rockets OVER 234

The way the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets play usually results in a shootout.  For starters, the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Spurs rank 4th, so this game is sure to be a barn burner with both teams getting up and down the floor.

Neither team likes to play defense, either.  The Rockets rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Spurs rank 20th in that same category.  But both teams have trended under the total recently with the Rockets going 6-0 their last six and the Spurs 4-0 their last four, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.

This will be the 4th meeting between the Spurs and Rockets this season and each of the first three have gone OVER this 234-point total.  They combined for 252, 238 and 237 points in those three meetings.  It should be more of the same here in another shootout.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls after going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I cashed them outright as underdogs at Cleveland on Saturday, and I'm back on them again here Monday as only 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Knicks.

While the Bulls had yesterday off and are fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls after a 104-102 road win at Detroit yesterday and now having to travel back to New York.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.  That's why they are getting some respect here with such a short number.  But the Bulls are far and away the better team and in the much better spot.  Chicago also has a lot more to play for in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Chicago is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win.  The Knicks are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bulls are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as favorites.  New York is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +13

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat went on to lost 95-110 at home to the Nets and that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as they trailed by 28 entering the 4th quarter.  The Heat are now 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and cannot be trusted right now to lay this big of a number to the Sacramento Kings given their chemistry issues.

The Kings have quietly been a money maker down the stretch and have flexed their depth without Fox and Sabonis.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The last three games have been very impressive.  They took Phoenix to OT in a 3-point home loss as 8-point dogs, upset Indiana on the road as 6-point dogs and upset the Magic on the road as 2.5-point dogs.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  Miami will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Heat are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Kings are 49-33 ATS in their last 82 games as road underdogs, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games in this role.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics today.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  But unlike the Timberwolves, they are getting that respect.  This line should be much closer to PK.  I'll gladly take the value with the road underdogs here.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS in Sunday games this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five ATS.  The Celtics are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* 76ers/Suns Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5

The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for right now.  They are percentage points ahead of the Miami Heat for the No. 1 seed in the East with four teams within 0.5 games of each other for that top spot.

The Phoenix Suns have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the No. 1 seed overall in the playoffs.  If they continue playing at the high level they have been all season, more power to them.  But I'm willing to bet against that here down the stretch.

The 76ers are starting to form a nice chemistry with James Harden on board now.  They have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 25-point road win over the Clippers on Friday.  Look for them to take the Suns to the wire on the road tonight and likely pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (Philadelphia) - when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last even games as a road underdog.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +4

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 15-0 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are a home dog to the New York Knicks tonight when they shouldn't be.

The Knicks are five games out of the playoffs in the East with 10 games to play.  They are all but eliminated.  But they are getting respect here as road favorites off two straight upset road wins over the Hornets as 8.5-point dogs and the Heat as 9.5-point dogs.    Now they come back as 4-point road favorites at Detroit, which is too big of an adjustment considering this obvious letdown spot.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have gone just 3-10 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They should be favored here over the Cleveland Cavaliers considering they are finally as healthy as they have been in a long time and get DeMar DeRozan back from injury tonight.  The only key player they are missing is Lonzo Ball, who they have been without for a long time.

The Cavaliers are the team with the big injury concerns, playing without Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  They have not been playing well without Allen.  They are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They needed a late rally to beat the Pistons by 4 as 6-point home favorites, lost to the Lakers by 11 as 4.5-point home favorites and lost to the Raptors by 13 as 5-point road dogs in their last three games coming in.

The Bulls have crushed the Cavaliers in their last two meetings, winning 117-104 and 101-91.  Chicago is 33-15 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 trips to Cleveland.  Cleveland is 18-47-2 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 222

The Chicago Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 224 points in three of their last four games.  They have allowed 125 or more points in four of their last five games.  I expect them to win a shootout tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The key here is that the Cavaliers are without Jarrett Allen.  He is one of the best defenders in the league.  Without him, the Cavaliers have become soft on defense and have had to play more small ball on offense.  That is evident by the fact that the Cavaliers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 221 or more points in all six.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back last night and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat can't be trusted in this spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Brookyn Nets come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Nets will have Kyrie Irving for this game, and they just got the news that he will be allowed to play in home games.  This team has a lot of good mojo right now because of that news, plus they have both Seth Curry and Goran Dragic healthy for this one.  I like for them to run the Heat out of the building tonight and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Nets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and have really formed a nice chemistry with Irving on the highway.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall and reeling.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

20* Mavs/Timberwolves NBA No-Brainer on Minnesota -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the past month.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are currently the 7th seed in the West and only one game back of the Nuggets for the 6th seed, which would have them avoiding the play-in round.

I love the spot for the Timberwolves tonight.  They are coming off two straight painful losses blowing a 13-point halftime lead to the Suns and also losing 108-110 at Dallas the game prior.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Mavericks at home this time around.  Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more and that lone loss to the Suns, the best team in the NBA.

Minnesota is 17-5 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Timberwolves are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Detroit Pistons have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA down the stretch.  They have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 122-101 upset home win as 5-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  

When they have Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham on the floor at the same time, they have been a force.  The Pistons have been competitive in each of their last 16 games during this run not once losing by more than 11 points.  They should handle the Washington Wizards tonight.

The Wizards look to be tanking.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  This is a tough spot for the Wizards as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-114 loss in Milwaukee last night in which the Bucks were without Giannis and Middleton.  They won't have much left in the tank for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.