Winning Sports Picks

20* Chiefs/Pats 2017 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City +9

The Kansas City Chiefs just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Andy Reid is doing a tremendous job here just as he did in Philadelphia.  The Chiefs have won at least 9 games in all four of Reid's seasons, and they've gone 43-21 in the regular season during that stretch.

The New England Patriots couldn't possibly be more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.

Now the Patriots open as whopping 9-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 1.  That's despite the fact that they are missing their best receiver in Julian Edelman, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the preseason.  Tom Brady had better chemistry with Edelman than perhaps any other receiver in his career, so that's a big blow.

The Chiefs went 6-2 on the road last season.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six road games overall.  They only lost 20-27 in New England in the 2015-16 playoffs.  They handed the Patriots one of their worst losses of the Belichick era with a 41-14 blowout at home in 2014 as well.  They have outgained the Patriots 821-630 in their last two meetings.

The Patriots did not fare well defensively in the preseason.  They have a lot of issues on that side of the ball.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the New York Giants.  I know preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is concerning nonetheless.

The Chiefs are the perfect team to back as a big underdog.  They have only lost 5 times by 10-plus points in 67 games under Reid.  They don't beat themselves with turnovers, and they do just enough to keep games close.  I think they'll easily stay within a touchdown of the Patriots and possibly pull off the stunner in Week 1.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* Yankees/Orioles AL East Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -107

The Baltimore Orioles have made a serious push to make the playoffs over the past two weeks.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall to pull within one game of the Minnesota Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are also 3.5 games back of the Yankees for the top spot.

Now Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Orioles looking to build on his strong second half.  Gausman has gone 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star Break.  He also has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA in his career against the Yankees.  The Orioles have won 11 straight home series against the Yankees, and they are 35-17 in their last 52 home meetings.

Sonny Gray hasn't had much success on the road this season, going 1-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in nine starts.  His teams have gone 1-8 in his nine road starts this year.  Gray is 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles as well.

Gray is 1-12 (-11.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 5-0 in Gausman's last five starts vs. AL East opponents.  Baltimore is 16-7 in Gausman's last 23 home starts.  The Orioles are 7-0 in Gausman's last seven home starts vs. New York.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -123

The Detroit Tigers are a mess right now.  They have traded away many of their best players and they clearly aren't worried about winning games.  They are 0-5 in their last five games while scoring a combined 11 runs in the process, or an average of 2.2 per game.

Kansas City is still very much alive for a wild card spot at 69-69 on the season.  They are 2.5 games back of the Twins for the final spot.  Now they have a huge advantage on the mound today over the Tigers.

Jason Vargas is 14-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 26 starts this season.  He'll be opposite Anibal Sanchez, who is 3-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 11 starts.  Sanchez has really been rocked of late, going 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.207 WHIP in his last three starts.

Plays against underdogs with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), a cold starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.00 or higher in his last three starts are 82-26 (75.9%, +44.6 units) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* Tennessee/GA Tech ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3

Expectations were high in Tennessee last year.  Many expected them to win the SEC East.  They won their key game against Florida, but were upset by South Carolina and Vanderbilt to really blow it down the stretch.  Now everyone is off the Tennessee bandwagon, and I think there is value with them in the early going because of it, especially as only 3-point favorites here against Georgia Tech.

Butch Jones had guided the Vols to back-to-back 9-4 seasons.  That is great at most players, but the fans want more, and Jones isn't shying away from it.  He has consistently delivered Top 10 recruiting classes over the past few seasons, so the talent is clearly there.

Now Tennessee actually has plenty of talent and experience back.  They have 14 starters back, and that doesn't even include all of the players that saw significant minutes on defense last year due to injuries.  This is a defense that returns eight of the top nine tacklers from a year ago and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Offensively, replacing QB Josh Dobbs will be tough, but he didn't meet expectations last year.  Jarrett Guarantanta is the 9th best QB recruit in the country, and Quinten Dormandy is the 19th, so Jones has some options here even if the competition goes into Week 1.  The offensive line returns four of five starters and 111 career starts and should be one of the best units in the SEC.

Georgia Tech had a surprising 9-4 season last year after going just 3-9 in 2015.  But that was a bit of a mirage.  The Yellow Jackets went 4-4 in ACC play despite getting outgained by 85.5 yards per game against conference opponents.  They went 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less.  They only gained 387 yards per game offensively while giving up 402 per game defensively.  Those aren't numbers you normally see from a 9-4 team.

The Yellow Jackets do return 16 starters this year and will be good, but they lose their best player in QB Justin Thomas. He was the best passing quarterback that Paul Johnson has ever had running the triple-option.  Now the job goes to Matthew Jordan, who only completed 33.3 percent of his passes in limited action last year.  He also only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

Plays against any team (GEORGIA TECH) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS since 1992. The Vols have had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which is a huge advantage for facing a team like Georgia Tech.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -125

The Baltimore Orioles are only 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the 2nd wild card spot.  They are only 3.5 games behind the Yankees for the 1st wild card.  That makes this a huge series for them, and I expect them to come up big in Game 1 against the Yankees today.

Dylan Bundy, who is 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA on the season, is coming off his best month as a starter.  He went 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in the five August starts.  He threw a one-hitter for his first career shutout in his last start against the Mariners.  He set a career high with 12 strikeouts in the win.

Jordan Montgomery is 7-7 with a 4.15 ERA in 24 starts, and 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 12 road starts for the Yankees.  He has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in his last two starts.  Bundy is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees are in a letdown spot here after taking two of three against the rival Boston Red Sox, including Game 3 on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  They had to travel to Baltimore overnight and now have to play a day game today at 2:00 EST.

The Yankees are 1-8 in Montgomery's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.  Baltimore is 7-0 in its last seven Monday games.  The Orioles are 7-0 in Bundy's last seven starts.  Bet the Orioles Monday.

20* Texas A&M/UCLA FOX Sunday No-Brainer on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins are one of my favorite bounce-back candidates of 2017.  I think they can make a serious run in the Pac-12.  They had won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games in Jim Mora's first four seasons before bottoming out at 4-8 last year.  Now they are flying under the radar heading into 2017.

UCLA had a lot go wrong last year.  They opened 3-3 and were three plays away from being 6-0.  Then star QB Josh Rosen got hurt and their season spiraled out of control.  They finished 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, which was simply bad luck.

But now Rosen is back healthy and he's among 15 returning starters, including nine on offense.  This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country after scoring just 24.9 points per game last year.  Mora has done a tremendous job in recruiting and that talent will get them back to 8-plus wins this season.

Texas A&M only had 12 starters back this season.  The Aggies lose QB Trevor Knight and four of their top five receivers from last year.  The defense loses No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, who were arguably the top DE tandem in the country.

UCLA is going to want revenge after losing a 24-31 thriller at Texas A&M last season.  The Bruins were only outgained 442 to 468 in that contest.  Now the Bruins get to host the Aggies this time around, and I think they should be closer to TD favorites than a FG here.

Texas A&M is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games as a road dog, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of 7 points or less.  UCLA is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 non-conference home games.  Plays on home teams (UCLA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Rockies UNDER 11.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies should go UNDER the posted total of 11.5 today when you consider the quality of the two starting pitchers going at it.  Both Zack Godley and German Marquez are having fine seasons for their respective ball clubs.

Godley is 6-7 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 20 starts this season with 129 K's in 123 innings.  He has been at his best on the road, going 3-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Godley is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in one career starts against Colorado.

Marquez is 10-5 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 125 K's in 131 1/3 innings.  Marquez has posted some solid numbers in four career starts against Arizona as well.  He is 0-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in four starts against them.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockies' last eight home games.  The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Godley's last 11 starts.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Marquez's last eight starts.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Marquez's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Rockies last 27 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -107

The Colorado Rockies will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday.  They lost game 1 to the Diamondbacks yesterday, who have now won eight straight overall.  Now the Diamondbacks are clearly overvalued due to this winning streak.

Colorado has the clear edge on the mound today and should be a heavier favorite.  Jon Gray has gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five home starts this year.  He is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Gray gave up only 2 earned runs in 6 innings while striking out 10 in a 6-3 win at Arizona on June 30th in his only start against them in 2017.

Pat Corbin has been great at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  Corbin is 4-8 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.  Corbin has allowed at least 4 earned runs in his 7 career starts at Colorado.  He has gone 2-2 with a 7.78 ERA in those seven starts at Coors Field, allowing 32 earned runs in 37 innings.

The Diamondbacks are 43-89 in their last 132 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 1-8 in Corbin's last nine road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 6-0 in Gray's last six home starts.  Take the Rockies Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -18

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were picked by many to be a playoff contender last year.  They fell flat on their faces and went just 4-8.  Now nobody is talking about Notre Dame heading into 2017, and those are the teams I like to back early in the season.

Notre Dame was clearly better than its 4-8 record.  The Fighting Irish went a college football-worst 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, which was simply bad luck.  With Brian Kelly on the hot season, he will have his team ready to go heading into this opener against Temple.

Conversely, Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls come in way overvalued here.

The Fighting Irish were in a rebuilding year last year when you look back because they only had eight starters returning.  But now they have 15 starters back in 2017.  This is a team that won 10 games when they had 16 starters back in 2015.  I think they will make a run at 10 wins again this season as this is clearly one of the most talented teams in the country.

Plays on home favorites (NOTRE DAME) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -18.5

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Now they have seven starters back, including QB Shane Buechele, who  got his feet wet as a freshman last year.  He completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,958 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Buechele has his top three receivers back and four starters and 75 career starts along the offensive line.  Offensive coordinator Tim Beck replaced Herman at Ohio State and spent the last two years calling the offense for the Buckeyes.

Strong wasn't able to put his imprint on the defense during his time here, which was a huge surprise.  But now the Longhorns should have their best defense in years with 10 starters and each of the top eight tacklers back.  Herman brings defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him from Houston, where he guided two great defenses for the Cougars over the last two years.

Maryland went 6-7 last year in DJ Durkin's first season.  The six wins came against Howard, FIU, UCF, Purdue, Michigan State and Rutgers.  Only one of those teams made a bowl game, which was 6-7 UCF.  The Terrapins went 1-7 against bowl teams, and they were consistently overmatched.  They lost by 24 to Penn State, by 21 to Minnesota, by 56 to Michigan, by 59 to Ohio State and by 21 to Nebraska.  Texas is in the class of many of those teams.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions have the feel of a 'flavor of the month' team heading into 2017.  That's because they closed last season by 9-1 in their last 10 games with their only loss to USC in the Rose Bowl by a final of 49-52 in a game they arguably should have won.  They came out of nowhere to win the Big Ten.

Now expectations are clearly high as the Nittany Lions come in ranked No. 6 in the country.  You won't be getting any discounts backing them this year, and that's evident with this opening line.  Penn State is a ridiculous 31-point favorite over Akron.

I take a look at the last couple seasons and find that Penn State has played a MAC team early in the year each of the last five seasons.  It hasn't fared very well.  The Nittany Lions beat Kent State 33-13 as 22-point favorites in 2016, Buffalo 27-14 as 17-point favorites in 2015, Akron 21-3 as 14-point favorites in 2014, Eastern Michigan 45-7 as 24-point favorites in 2013, and actually lost to Ohio 14-24 as 6-point favorites in 2012.

Akron is going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  The Zips went 5-7 in a rebuilding year last season with only seven returning starters.  That came after they went 8-5 in 2015 with 12 returning starters.

Terry Bowden is arguably the best coach in the MAC now.  He has done a tremendous job in recruiting some transfers from major schools like Ohio State, Miami, Pitt, Rutgers, Virginia and Nebraska.  And now Bowden has his most experienced team since he took over at Akron six years ago.

The Zips return 15 starters and 57 lettermen this year.  They are the 27th-most experienced team in the country.  Senior QB Thomas Woodson is back after completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,079 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions last year.  Four starters are back along the offensive line, and each of the top four tacklers and seven starters return on defense.

Woodson missed four games last year and had offseason shoulder surgery.  He is back healthy, as is running back Warren Ball, a 2016 Ohio State graduate transfer who was injured in the second game of the season and received a medical redshirt.

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 28.5 to 35 points.  Roll with Akron Saturday.

20* Washington/Rutgers FS1 Friday No-Brainer on Rutgers +27.5

I was big on the Washington Huskies last year.  I predicted they'd win the Pac-12 and make the four-team playoff, and they did just that.  But now they are no longer flying under the radar after their 12-2 season, and they aren't as talented as they were a year ago.  They come in ranked No. 8 in the country with the spotlight now squarely on them.

Washington goes from having 15 starters back last year to 13 this year.  They lose key players to the NFL, including WR John Ross and S Budda Baker.  Don't get me wrong, this team still has QB Jake Browning, RB Myles Gaskin and plenty of talent to win the Pac-12, but they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

I think that's evident when you look at the point spread compared to last year against Rutgers.  Washington was a 25-point home favorite over Rutgers last year, but now they are a 27.5-point road favorite this time around.  And Washington won't be as good, while Rutgers will certainly be improved.

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

Washington did beat Rutgers 48-13 last year to cover that 25-point spread.  However, a look at the stats shows the game was much closer than the final score.  The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 380 to 304 in that game, or by 76 total yards.  The difference was two return touchdowns by the Huskies, one on a kickoff and one on a punt.  That's unlikely to happen again.  Rutgers also had 21 first downs to just 17 for Washington.  The Scarlet Knights turned the ball over three times as well.

It's also worth noting that the Huskies are going to be without two starting LB's in Azeem Victor and DJ Beavers, who combined for 107 tackles a year ago.  Washington is 3-12 SU in its last 15 true road openers.  The Huskies are 1-9 SU in their last 10 non-conference road games vs. Power 5 teams.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Yankees OVER 9

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this showdown between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox tonight.  Look for the runs to be plentiful in this one to push the total OVER 9 runs here.

Doug Fister is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Fister is 3-3 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in eight career starts against New York.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees.

Sonny Gray has been solid this season at 8-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 21 starts.  However, he hasn't fared well against the Red Sox throughout his career.  Indeed, he is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in five starts against them.

The Yankees are 12-2 to the OVER in home games off a win by 4 runs or more this season.  The OVER is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 Friday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Yankees last four games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Seahawks/Raiders NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -1.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* NFLX BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings -3

No analysis for preseason.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma State -17.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

Tulsa is coming off one of the best seasons in school history at 10-3 last year.  They posted that record despite giving up 29.8 points and 426 yards per game defensively.  That defense will take another step back with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top four tacklers.

The Golden Hurricane were able to overcome those defensive deficiencies by scoring 42.5 points per game and averaging 527 yards per game offensively.  However, major regression can be expected on this side of the ball due to the massive losses at the playmaker positions.

The Golden Hurricane lose their all-time leading passer in QB Dane Evans (11,680 yards), two 1,000-yard receivers in Keevan Lucas (81, 1,180, 15 TD) and Josh Atkinson (78, 1,058, 8 TD) and leading rusher James Flanders (1,661 yards, 18 TD).  It will simply be impossible to replace that kind of production.

I think losing that early game to Central Michigan last year will have Oklahoma State more focused heading into the 2017 opener.  They won't be taking Tulsa lightly at all.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Gundy is 58-33 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -128

I've backed the Baltimore Orioles the past two days and I'm going to stay with them today.  This team is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall while scoring a combined 52 runs for an average of 7.4 runs per game.

Conversely, Toronto is 2-10 in its last 12 games overall to fall to 61-72 on the season.  The Blue Jays are realizing their postseason chances are done, and it's showing up in their play.  The Orioles are just 1.5 games back in the wild card and are pushing forward to try and make the postseason.

Jeremy Hellickson is 8-7 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He is 5-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 16 career starts against Toronto.  Marco Estrada is 6-8 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 27 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in his last three starts.

Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 45-11 (80.4%, +29.8 units) over the last five seasons.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore Orioles -131

The Baltimore Orioles have reeled off six straight wins to pull within 1.5 games of the Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have scored a combined 44 runs in those six games, or an average of 7.3 runs per game.

But yesterday was about pitching at Dylan Bundy tossed an inspirational complete game shutout in a 4-0 victory for the Orioles.  That's huge because it gave the bullpen a rest, and with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound today, the bullpen will likely be called upon in the 6th or 7th inning.

I'll gladly fade Ariel Miranda, who is 8-6 with a 4.62 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Miranda has been at his worst on the road, going 5-3 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  His numbers are still better than those of Jimenez, but the Orioles have all the momentum right now, and Jimenez will come up big today.

The Orioles are 30-10 in Jimenez's last 40 home starts, including 15-3 in his last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mariners are 0-4 in their last four road games.  Seattle is 1-6 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Baltimore is 10-3 in its last 13 vs. a left-handed starter.  The Mariners are 6-14 in their last 20 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -131

The Baltimore Orioles have won five straight while scoring a combined 40 runs in the process.  This winning streak now has them just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League and motivated to keep pushing forward.

Now Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Orioles looking to build on an already impressive season.  He is 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 24 starts, including 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Bundy is also 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 27 innings while striking out 33 batters.

Erasmo Ramirez is no match for Bundy in this one.  He is 4-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in seven road starts.  Ramirez has allowed 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings for a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore.

Plays on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BALTIMORE) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 44-12 (78.6%, +26.6 units) over the last five seasons.

The Mariners are 1-9 in Ramirez's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 6-0 in Bundy's last six starts.  The Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +108

The Boston Red Sox come into this game with the Toronto Blue Jays highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend.  But now they're up against a Toronto team that is 2-7 in its last nine games to fall to 61-69.  The Blue Jays have played themselves out of the wild card race with this stretch.

Drew Pomeranz is 13-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 25 starts this season, 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 12 road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last three starts.  Pomeranz is also 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.  He has given up just 1 earned run in 12 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays in 2017.

Marcus Stroman is having a fine season for the Blue Jays at 11-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 26 starts.  But he should not be favored here.  Stroman is 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA in his last five starts against Boston, giving up 24 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings during this stretch.

The Red Sox are 12-2 in Pomeranz's last 14 starts vs. AL East opponents, and 4-0 in his last four starts overall.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston has won four straight meetings in Toronto.  Bet the Red Sox Monday.

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Redskins OVER 44.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -102

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Oakland A's and need a win Sunday to avoid the sweep.  I'm betting them to do just that.

A.J. Griffin is 6-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in eight road starts.  While not great, he has been better than Jharel Cotton.  The right-hander is 6-10 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 19 starts, including 2-6 with a 7.88 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Griffin and Cotton squared off back on April 17th earlier this season.  The Rangers won that game 7-0.  Griffin pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing only two base runners and striking out eight.  Cotton allowed 5 runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in that contest.

Griffin is 14-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 7-0 in Griffin's last seven starts vs. AL West opponents.  Te A's are 4-9 in Cotton's last 13 starts.  Oakland is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

20* Rice/Stanford 2017 CFB Season Opener on Rice +31

This is a rare non-conference rematch from the previous season.  Rice and Stanford played each other in the final week of the regular season.  Stanford won 41-17, failing to cover as 35-point home favorites in a 24-point win.

So the Owls are already familiar with the Cardinal and only lost by 24 on the road.  Now they get to play them in their first game of 2017 and on a neutral field in Sydney, Australia this time around.  I see no reason they shouldn't be able to stay within 24 again, let alone 31, which is the spread for this rematch.

Rice is going to improved from last year's 3-9 campaign.  The Owls had a very young team and were decimated by injuries.  This year they have 15 starters back and will be mostly a junior/senior laden team.  David Bailiff is on the hot seat and he does his best work when little is expected of him.

I like the way the Owls finished the season last year, going 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They easily could have quit after their 1-8 start, but managed to go 2-1 in those last three.  They won 22-21 at Charlotte as 12-point dogs, thumped UTEP 44-24 as 1-point home favorites, and then obviously covered as 35-point dogs in that 17-41 loss at Stanford.

Stanford is going to be a contender in the Pac-12 this season, just as they are year in and year out.  But they did lose their two best players from last year in Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas, who are both once-in-a-generation type players.  The loss of McCaffrey is absolutely huge because he provided most of their offense over the past two seasons.

Stanford plays a Big Ten style.  They will beat you up physically, but they won't blow the doors off and run up the score.  They are a ball control team, which makes it tough for them to cover massive spreads like this one.  And I think this is actually a tough spot for the Cardinal because they have their biggest game of the season against USC on deck, and they could be overlooking Rice, while also finding it hard to be focused in a foreign country here.

The Owls are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* Chargers/Rams CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -107

The Texas Rangers are right in the thick of the wild card race.  They are only two games back and can't afford to be losing to teams like the Oakland A's.  I think they have a big edge on the mound today, and given their edge in motivation, they should be a much bigger favorite here.

Cole Hamels is having a very good season, going 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 16 starts.  He is 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just 6 earned runs in 29 innings.  Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in six starts against division opponents this season.  Hamels is 2-1 with a 2.94 ERA in five career starts against Oakland as well.

The heavy workload has really started to catch up with Sean Manaea in his first full season as a starter.  He is 0-2 with a 13.04 ERA and 2.277 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has actually allowed 21 runs in his last 12 1/3 innings spanning his past four starts.  Manaea is 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA in five career starts against Texas.  He has allowed 11 runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers are 28-5 in Hamels' last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 45-16 in Hamels' last 61 starts overall.  Oakland is 0-6 in its last six games following a win.  The A's are 1-5 in Manaea's last six starts.  Take the Rangers Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -3

No Analysis for preseason.

15* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

The Chicago Cubs blew a late lead yesterday to the Cincinnati Reds.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory here Friday against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, who own the worst record in baseball.  Chicago is 21-6 in its last 27 games following a loss.

Jose Quintana has been very effective in a Cubs' uniform.  He is 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA in his first seven starts with the club.  He has allowed six or fewer hits in each of his past 14 starts, the longest active streak in the major leagues.

Jerad Eickhoff is 3-7 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He faced the Cubs on May 3rd in his only start against them this season.  He gave up 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, which was the second time in his last three starts against them that he has allowed at least 4 runs.

Quintana is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.7 runs per game on average in these spots.  The Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Phillies are 36-79 in their last 115 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -163

The Chicago Cubs have won four straight games heading into Thursday's action.  Their offense has come alive as they have scored 79 runs in their last 10 games overall for an average of 7.9 runs per game.  That includes 22 runs in the first two games of this series with Cincinnati.

Jake Arrieta has delivered seven straight quality starts, going 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA during this stretch.  He had a huge second half two years ago, and he's doing it again in 2017.  Arrieta is 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in nine career starts against Cincinnati as well.

Sal Romano is one of the many overmatched starting pitchers for the Reds.  He is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four home starts.  He'll get lit up once again by this hot Cubs lineup.

Arrieta is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 14-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in August games over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 18-1 (+16.0 Units) against the money line after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Eagles NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

No analysis for preseason.

25* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -137

The Chicago Cubs have now won four straight to take control of the NL Central.  They are swinging hot bats right now as they have scored 6 or more runs in seven of their last nine games after hanging 13 on the lowly Cincinnati Reds yesterday.

Lefty Mike Montgomery has been serviceable for the Cubs, going 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.314 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in five road starts.  The Reds are just 8-24 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .245 and scoring 4.1 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is getting too much love from the books here Wednesday.  He is 2-2 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in seven starts this season.  One of those came against the Cubs on August 14th as he gave up 7 earned runs and 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-15 loss.

The Cubs are 12-0 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 39-15 in its last 54 meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks ended a 3-9 run with a big victory in extra innings over the New York Mets yesterday to move 3.5 games up on the Brewers in the wild card.  This is a Mets team that appears to have quit, going 1-7 in their last eight games overall.

The Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Pate Corbin.  He is coming off two of his best starts of the season.  He has pitched 15 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing only 11 base runners and striking out 15 in back-to-back wins over the Cubs and Astros, two of the best teams in baseball.

Tom Milone gets the nod for the Mets.  He is 1-2 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with an 11.33 ERA and 2.614 WHIP in three home starts.  Milone is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona as well.

The Mets are 0-10 vs. teams outscoring opppnents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  They are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  New York is 1-11 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  It is losing by 3.6 runs per game in this situation.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Giants/Browns NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland +1.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -127

After going just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall, the Arizona Diamondbacks now only have a 2.5 lead on the Milwaukee Brewers for the final wild card spot.  It looked like a foregone conclusion they would make the postseason at the All-Star Break, but now they are going to have to work for it.

So the Diamondbacks will come into this series highly motivated for a victory.  The same cannot be said for the New York Mets, who appear to have quit on their season.  The Mets are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  This is a tremendous value on the Diamondbacks given their motivation and their huge edge on the mound.

Taijuan Walker is having a solid season at 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA in 20 starts, including 4-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 road starts.  Robert Gsellman has been horrible all years, going 5-5 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 15 starts, including 0-1 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.896 WHIP in his last three.

The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last eight Monday games.  The Mets are 14-37 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 0-4 in Gsellman's last four starts.  Arizona is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.v

15* Saints/Chargers NFL Network No-Brainer on New Orleans +3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-105)

The Texas Rangers have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the last wild card spot in the American League.  Their offense just put up 17 runs on the White Sox yesterday, making it four times in the last five games that they have scored at least 9 runs.  We'll ride the hot hand today once again.

Speaking of hot hands, A.J. Griffin has pitched his best baseball of the season of late.  He is 6-3 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three.  He is clearly the better starter in this matchup.

The White Sox are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall to fall to 46-73 on the season.  Miguel Gonzalez has been awful on the road this year, going 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six career starts against Texas as well.

Griffin is 9-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Griffin's last 13 home starts.  They are winning by 2.4 runs per game as well.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Broncos/49ers NFL Network Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

No analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  This recent hot streak has gotten them to within 1.5 games of the Chicago Cubs for 1st place in the NL Central.  The catalyst has been their offense as they have scored 6 or more runs in nine of their last 12 games.

Michael Wacha is having a solid season at 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Wacha has had plenty of success against the Pirates, who are 0-6 in their last six games overall and essentially have nothing to play for now.  Wacha is 5-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Chad Kuhl is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 12 home starts.  Kuhl has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 (0-4 money line) with a 5.50 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Pirates are 11-27 following a one-run loss over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 24-9 in Wacha's last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 3-12 in Kuhl's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Vikings/Seahawks NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5

No analysis for preseason

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-120)

The Texas Rangers on a nice run to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  Their offense has been the catalyst in scoring 5 or more runs in all seven wins during this stretch.

The Chicago White Sox have gone in the other direction.  They have lost five straight while allowing at least 5 runs in all five losses.  Now they are starting their worst pitcher in James Shields, who is 2-4 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Shields had allowed 18 homers in just 68 2/3 innings pitched.

Andrew Cashner has been the best starter for the Rangers.  He is 7-9 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 starts, 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts.  This guy has consistently been underrated all season.

Shields is 13-33 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 2.0 runs per game on average.  Texas is 13-2 after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more last game over the last three seasons, winning by 3.1 runs per game on average.  The White Sox are 2-12 in Shields' last 14 road starts.  Texas is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bucs/Jags NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +2

No Analysis for Preseason

25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100, Game 1)

One of the weirdest stats you will see this season is the head-to-head history between the Twins and Indians.  The road team is actually 13-1 in their 14 meetings this year.  We'll continue riding this trend Thursday and back the Indians in Game 1 of this double-header on the Run Line.

The Indians have a massive edge on the mound tonight to boot.  Carlos Carrasco is 11-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 8-2 with a 3.09 ERA on the highway.  He pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 win at Minnesota on June 16th in his only start against them this season.

Kyle Gibson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 6-9 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  That includes a 3-6 record and a 6.89 ERA and 1.84 WHIP at home this season.  Gibson has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 consecutive starts against the Indians, posting a 6.59 ERA in those five outings.

The Indians are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cleveland is 5-0 in its last five road games.  The Indians are 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Twins are 16-35 in Gibson's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 27-56 in its last 83 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last six home starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -141

The Colorado Rockies have returned home following a tough 1-4 road trip.  They got back on track with a 3-0 win over the Braves yesterday, and they are now 36-21 at home this season, hitting .301 and scoring 6.1 runs per game at Coors Field. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.

Kyle Freeland has put up some impressive home numbers at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season.  He is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 home starts this year.  The Rockies are 20-13 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .280 and scoring 5.5 runs per game against them.

Lefty Sean Newcomb gets the ball for the Braves tonight.  He hasn't had much success this season, going 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 11 starts.  The Braves have gone 2-9 in his 11 starts this year.

Atlanta is 9-37 in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 1-8 in their last nine road games.  Atlanta is 0-7 in Newcomb's last seven starts.  Colorado is 16-5 in its last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Rockies are 4-0 in Freeland's last four starts, and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Colorado is 11-0 in its last 11 home meetings with Atlanta.  Bet the Rockies Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  This is a Cubs team that will be taking the Reds seriously considering they are only one game ahead of the Cardinals and two ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Jose Quintana is clearly the better starter in this game.  He has gone 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 143 K's in 134 1/3 innings.  The Reds are awful against left-handed starters, going 7-22 against them this season while hitting .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is one of the many sub-par starters in the Reds' rotation.  He has gone 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA in two road starts.

Quintana is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

15* Seahawks/Chargers NFLX Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +2.5

No analysis for preseason

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Milwaukee Brewers should be much bigger home favorites today over the Cincinnati Reds.  But because they have struggled of late, they are undervalued right now.  The Brewers are still right in the thick of the NL Central race and the Reds are still in last place in the division.

Matt Garza is coming off a rough outing, but he had allowed two earned runs or fewer in his five previous starts.  Look for him to bounce back against the Reds here Sunday afternoon.  Garza has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts against Cincinnati.

Sal Romano doesn't deserve to be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  He is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and figures to exit early in this one as well.

The Reds are 15-36 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Reds are 1-4 in Romano's last five starts.  The Brewers are 9-1 in Garza's last 10 starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +3

No Analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -139

The Milwaukee Brewers are in must-win mode now after their brutal stretch since the All-Star Break.  They cannot afford to keep losing to teams like Cincinnati as they did last night.  Now they are back to being undervalued as short home favorites here thanks to going 0-6 in their last six games overall.

The Reds will give the ball to Scott Feldman, who is slated to come off the disabled list after missing time since July 17th.  Feldman is 7-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 19 starts this season, 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine road starts, and 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his last two starts.  He is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee as well.

Brent Suter has been the much better starter in limited action for the Brewers.  He has gone 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three home starts.

The Reds are 7-21 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .245 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game.  Cincinnati is 16-35 in its last 51 road games, and 23-54 in its last 77 games against left-handed starters overall.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115)

The Milwaukee Brewers have now lost five straight games after getting swept by the Minnesota Twins last series.  But they are still just two games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series at home against the Cincinnati Reds Friday.

The Brewers should have no problem winning by two runs or more thanks to their edge on the mound.  Jimmy Nelson has been their ace all season, going 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts, so he has shown no signs of slowing down.  He's 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season, and 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five starts against Cincinnati, giving up just 8 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings.

Homer Bailey has been a mess since returning from injury.  He is now 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Bailey gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Cardinals.  He faced the Brewers back on June 29th, and he was blasted for 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 3-11 loss.

The Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-10 in Bailey's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 5-1 in Nelson's last six starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 1-4 in Bailey's last five starts vs. Milwaukee.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bucs/Bengals NFLX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +2

No Analysis for preseason.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Brewers -152

The Milwaukee Brewers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday after losing the first three games of this interleague rivalry against the Minnesota Twins.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep with a Game 4 victory.

The Brewers will send their hottest starter to the mound in Zach Davies, who is 2-1 with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 25 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 13-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Twins are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, including 5-26 in their last 31 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 15-5 in Davies' last 20 starts.  Milwaukee is 4-0 in its last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Brewers Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* Dodgers/DBacks NL West No-Brainer on Arizona +105

I cashed in the Diamondbacks as nice underdogs at home last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I'm going to back them again as home dogs here Wednesday.  This is a revenge series for them after getting swept in Los Angeles with three one-run losses to the Dodgers in their last series.

I would argue that the Diamondbacks have the edge on the mound with Zack Greinke, who is 13-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 22 starts, including a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 12 home starts.  This guy has been a money-making machine at home throughout his career.

Alex Wood was due to cool off after a great start to the season.  He has done just that, going 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in his last three starts.  Those came against the Braves (twice) and Giants, so he has been struggling against some poor lineups.  Now he's up against a DBacks team that is 37-18 at home, hitting .277 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at chase field this season.

The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games, including 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 7-0 in Greinke's last seven starts when working on 5 days of rest.  The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five meetings in Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Texans/Panthers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on Houston +1

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks +120

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been looking forward to this series for a month.  They were swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles from July 4-6, losing all three games by exactly one run.  Now this is their chance for revenge against their hated rivals.

The hype for the Dodgers is off the charts right now.  That's because they have won 44 of their last 51 games, which is the first time that has been done since 1912.  The Dodgers will be overvalued moving forward, including tonight as road favorites over the Diamondbacks.

Zack Godley is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in six home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts while pitching 13 shutout innings against the Cubs and Cardinals.

Kenta Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA in nine road starts this season for the Dodgers.  He is 3-2 with a 4.47 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona.  In two starts against the Diamondbacks in 2017, Maeda has gone 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 innings.  Godley is 0-1 with a 3.08 ERA in two career starts against L.A.

The Dodgers are 1-4 in Maeda's last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Diamondbacks are 40-18 in their last 58 home games.  Arizona is 8-3 in Godley's last 11 starts, including 4-1 in his last five home starts.  The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Godley's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* Cubs/Giants ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -1.5 (+100)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a win in this series opener against the San Francisco Giants after losing four of their last five games overall.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Jake Arrieta has gone 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a .154 opponents' batting average against in four starts since the All-Star Break.  Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in seven career starts against the Giants.

The Cubs feast on lefties with a 0.822 OPS against them this season, which is the 3rd-best mark in the big leagues.  Matt Moore has been awful all season, going 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 22 starts.  Moore has allowed at least 4 runs in five straight starts coming in.

The Cubs are 18-7 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .282 and scoring 6.4 runs per game.  The Cubs are 23-4 in Arrieta's last 27 road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game.  They are winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-1 in its last 12 road games.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Moore's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -119

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall to get to 55-56 on the season and one win shy of getting back to .500.  They are still very much alive in the AL wild card race.  Look for them to take care of business at home Sunday against the A's, who are 18-37 on the road this season.

Ricky Nolasco has held his own at home this season, going 3-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 11 starts.  Nolasco is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 10 career starts against Oakland.  In his last two starts against them in 2017, Nolasco has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners with 14 K's in 12 2/3 innings.

Sean Manaea has faltered of late at 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has never beaten the Angels, going 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA in four career starts against them.  The A's are 0-4 in those four games.

Manaea is 0-7 (-8.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.  The A's are 23-50 in their last 73 vs. American League West opponents, including 1-6 in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-140)

The Boston Red Sox should have no problem beating the White Sox by multiple runs Saturday night at Fenway.  They have a massive edge on the mound and this one should be in the bag after five innings.  The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process.

Drew Pomeranz is 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 11 road starts.  Pomeranz has been great of late at 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.  The left-hander owns the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two career starts against them.

James Shields is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in his last three starts.  Shields is 9-15 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 29 career starts against Boston.

The White Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.  Chicago is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The White Sox are 1-7 in Shields' last eight road starts.  The Red Sox are 57-28 in their last 85 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Boston is 9-3 in Pomeranz's last 12 home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* A's/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -124

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring five or more runs in all six games.  They are now just one win away from getting back to .500 on the season and will be highly motivated to do so in Game 1 of this series against the Oakland A's Friday.

The Angels have done a good job of finding diamonds in the rough like Parker Bridwell.  Now they will give Troy Scribner a shot.  Scribner went 12-5 with a 3.41 ERA in the minors last season.  He was 10-3 with a 4.16 ERA when the Angels called him up last week, and he promptly got a win in an inning of relief.

Jharel Cotton has been inconsistent all season, going 5-8 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 15 starts.  He has given up 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Cotton is also 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels.  He has given up 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in two starts against the Angels in 2017.

Los Angeles is 54-23 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.  The A's are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five home games.  The A's are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Angels Friday.v

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +102

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Marlins are 6-2 in their last eight games overall, while the Braves are 2-10 in their last 12 games coming into this series.

The Marlins have the clear edge on the mound today behind Adam Conley, who is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in his last three starts, and 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Conley has never lost to the Braves, going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine road games.  Miami is 8-2 in its last 10 Friday games.  The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  Atlanta is 1-4 in R.A. Dickey's last five starts.  Take the Marlins Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -114

The St. Louis Cardinals should be much bigger favorites against the Cincinnati Reds today.  They Cardinals are still in contention in the NL Central and a series sweep here would get them right back in the mix.

Mike Leake is having a great season at 7-9 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 21 starts.  Leake has pitched well against the Reds in 2017, giving up just 4 earned runs in 19 innings for a 1.89 ERA across three starts.

Asher Wojciechowski has gone 0-1 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four starts this season for the Reds.  He is 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in two home starts.  Now he'll be making his first start since June 17th for Cincinnati.

The Reds are 0-10 after scoring one run or less this season.  It is losing by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.  The Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 home games.  Cincinnati is 1-8 in its last nine during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -122

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a win tonight after getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles last series.  They'll be happy to return home following a tough 9-game road trip as well.  The Royals are 30-23 at home this season.

Trevor Cahill has held his own this season at 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 starts.  What really stands out is how dominant Cahill has been at home, going 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 2 earned runs in 25 innings.  Cahill is also 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle.

Yovani Gallardo is the weakest link in Seattle's rotation.  He is 4-7 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Gallardo is also 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City.  He has allowed 6 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.

The Royals are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Kansas City is 5-0 in its last five home games.  The Mariners are 1-4 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Cardinals HOF Game No-Brainer on Arizona +2.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the baseball of late.  They have scored a combined 25 runs over their past three games.  They should feast on Derek Holland and easily win by two runs or more to get us a win today.

J.A. Happ is a solid lefty who has posted a 4.15 ERA in 14 starts this season and a 4.07 ERA in seven road starts.  Happ has gone 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox.  He has won his last two starts against them while giving up just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings and striking out 17.

Derek Holland is 5-10 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in his last three starts.  Holland is 3-4 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in nine career starts against Toronto.  He gave up 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Blue Jays.

The White Sox are 1-10 in Holland's last 11 starts.  Chicago is 2-10 in its last 12 home games.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -118

The Oakland A's have been a good bet at home this year at 31-24 and +6.6 units of profit.  The San Francisco Giants are 18-38 on the road, losing betters -19.6 units.  The A's are 14-5 in their last 19 home meetings with the Giants.

Oakland clearly has the edge on the mound tonight behind Sean Manaea, who is 8-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 19 starts, including 4-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in nine home starts.  Manaea faced the Giants once in his career, pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 7-1 home victory over them last season.

Jeff Samardzija continues to get too much respect from the books despite going 5-11 with a 4.85 ERA in 21 starts, 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 11 road starts and 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts.  Samardzija is also 1-2 with a 10.06 ERA and 2.059 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland.

Oakland is 13-1 in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  The A's are 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the A's Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall and now sit at 55-48 and in a wild card spot if the season were to end today.   They trail the Indians by just two games for first place in the AL Central as well.

Danny Duffy gets the ball today looking to improve upon his 7-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 16 starts.  Duffy has been at his best of late, going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in his last three starts.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore.

The Orioles are in limbo at 50-54 on the season.  Now they send their worst starter to the mound in Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 4-7 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.659 WHIP In 16 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.15 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in seven home starts.  Jimenez is also 5-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 13 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 22-5 in its last 27 after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game.  The Orioles are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.  Baltimore is 1-5 in Jimenez's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -122

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after getting shut out by the Baltimore Orioles last night.  And I think they should be much bigger favorites today considering the massive edge they have on the mound.

Martin Perez hasn't been special by any means at 5-8 with a 4.58 ERA in 19 starts this season.  he is also 2-2 a 4.40 ERA in five career starts against the Orioles.  But despite those average numbers, he is still the much superior starter here.

Wade Miley is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 4-9 with a 5.9 ERA and 1.792 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA and 2.042 WHIP in his last three starts.  Miley hasn't had any success against the Rangers, going 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Baltimore is 18-37 (-14.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Orioles are 10-26 in their last 36 road games, including 1-5 in Miley's last six road starts.  The Rangers are 18-6 in Perez's last 24 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings at Texas.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Padres UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in baseball.  The Pirates are hitting .248 and scoring 4.3 runs per game, while the Padres are hitting .236 and scoring 3.8 runs per game this season.

Ivan Nova has been an undervalued starter all year.  He has gone 10-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Nova has owned the Padres, going 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in two career starts against them, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 12 1/3 innings while striking out 15.

On the surface, Dinelson Lamet and his 5.92 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 10 starts doesn't look too impressive.  But it's clear that this guy has great stuff when you consider he has already struck out 68 batters in 51 2/3 innings this season.  He has troubles with giving up home runs, but that shouldn't be a problem at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Nova is 10-1 to the UNDER in July games over the last three seasons.  Nova is 8-0 to the UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-6-1 in Pirates last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-125)

The Cleveland Indians have started to play up to their potential since the All-Star Break to try and take control of the AL Central.  They have now won seven straight games while scoring 6 or more runs in five of their last seven.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight against the Chicago White Sox, who have gone 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.  The White Sox are coming off their huge crosstown rivalry with the Cubs and won't be very interested tonight.

Danny Salazar had a tremendous return from the disabled list on July 22nd.  He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just one base runners and striking out 8 in a 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Salazar is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the White Sox.

Derek Holland has gone 5-9 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.41 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his last three starts.  The White Sox traded away all their top bullpen arms, and it has shown lately as their bullpen has been rocked since the break.

The Indians are 13-2 in Salazar's last 15 Friday starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 0-6 in Holland's last six starts.  The White Sox are 0-9 in Holland's last nine starts following a loss in their previous game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on New York -111

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite this season.  It just shows how undervalued C.C. Sabathia has been all season.  And the Yankees have turned the corner, going 5-1 in thier last six games overall coming in.

Sabathia has gone 9-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 16 starts this season, in which the Yankees have gone 12-4 in those outings.  The left-hander has faced the Rays twice this season, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 10 innings for a 0.90 ERA.

Chris Archer is a nice talent at 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  But he gets priced like an ace, while Sabathia gets priced like a No. 5 starter.  Archer hasn't been as effective on the road this season, going 4-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

The Yankees are 8-1 in Sabathia's nine starts vs. division opponents this season.  The Rays are 8-17 in Archer's last 25 starts vs. division foes.  Archer is 2-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Yankees Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115)

The Boston Red Sox have now lost four straight and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  The good news is that they have arguably the best starter in baseball going today to get them back on track.

Chris Sale has gone 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in 20 starts this season while striking out a ridiculous 200 batters in 141 1/3 innings already.  He has thrown 13 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts since the All-Star Break while striking out 22.  Sale is 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle as well.

Andrew Moore is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA in five starts this season for the Mariners while striking out only 13 batters in 30 innings.  Moore has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while yielding 6 homers in 15 innings of work.

The Red Sox are 11-4 in Sale's last 15 starts.  Boston is 8-2 in Sale's last 10 starts when working on 4 days' rest.  The Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 home games.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -114

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated to put an end to their current 5-game losing streak.  This is a team right in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  They need a win here to turn it around as they currently sit at 51-49 on the season.

The Rays have the clear edge on the mound today behind Jacob Faria, who is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three home starts to boot.  Faria has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore.

Wade Miley has been a disaster for the Orioles, who have one of the worst starting rotation ERA's in baseball.  Miley has gone 4-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in 20 starts, 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.870 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts.

Baltimore is 0-11 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season.  It is losing threse games by 3.7 runs per game on average.  The Orioles are 9-23 in their last 32 road games.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -143

The Texas Rangers are coming off a huge 3-game sweep at the Tampa Bay Rays to conclude a tough 9-game road trip coming out of the Break.  Now they return home with some momentum as they look to chase down a wild card spot in the American League.

The Miami Marlins are just 3-6 since the break and essentially have nothing to play for but pride the rest of the way.  They will send out Adam Conley tonight, who is 2-2 with massive 6.68 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Martin Perez has held his own this season with a 4.63 ERA spanning 18 starts for the Rangers.  The Rangers are 8-2 in Perez's last 10 interleague starts.  Texas is 19-7 in Perez's last 26 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. NL East opponents.  The Marlins are 16-35 in their last 51 interleague road games, including 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Texas is 10-2 in interleague play this season.  Bet the Rangers Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -157

The Chicago Cubs are back.  They have gone 7-1 since the All-Star Break.  Jose Quintana feels revived after leaving the south side for the north side and a playoff contender.  Look for him to dominate in his Wrigley debut tonight.

Quintana had his best start of the season in his first start in a Cubs uniform.  He tossed 7 shutout innings of 3-hit ball with 12 strikeouts in an 8-0 win at Baltimore on July 16th.  He has never lost to the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two career starts against them.

Michael Wacha has to be fatigued off his complete game shutout at the New York Mets in his last start in which he threw 119 pitches.  Wacha has never had much success against the Cubs, going 4-5 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.

Quintana is 15-1 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Quintana is 8-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -105

The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned things around in winning three of their last four games coming in.  They have scored a combined 31 runs in those four games as their bats are coming alive.

Taijuan Walker is on paternity leave for the birth of his child, so his turn has been skipped in the rotation.  That means the Diamondbacks are calling up their top prospect in Anthony Banda today for a spot start.  He should thrive in front of his home fans as it will be a great atmosphere in Arizona tonight.

Tanner Roark is in the midst of a down year at 7-6 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 18 starts.  Roark has allowed 9 earned runs over 10 innings while giving up 4 homers in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.

Getting the Diamondbacks at basically even money at home is a discount here considering they are 34-15 at home this  season and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  The Nationals are 1-5 in Roark's last six starts.  Arizona is 24-10 in its last 34 games following a win.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins -133

The Minnesota Twins are hanging tough in the race for the AL Central.  They are 48-46 on the season and just a half-game behind the Cleveland Indians.  The Detroit Tigers have been sellers at the deadline as they just traded away JD Martinez and currently sit at 43-51.

The Twins have the edge on the mound at home today behind Ervin Santana, who is 11-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Santana is 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 19 career starts against Detroit.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five straight starts against the Tigers, going 1-1 with a 1.97 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 32 innings.

Anibal Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five starts this season for the Tigers.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs on four of his last six starts against the Twins.  He just recently returned from the disabled list and should be pretty good fade material moving forward.

Sanchez is 3-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 3-12 in Sanchez's last 15 road starts.  Bet the Twins Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers +103

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday after losing the first three games of this series to the Baltimore Orioles.  I fully expect them to avoid the sweep and get a win due to their massive edge on the mound.

Cole Hamels has not lost this season, going 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in nine starts.  He has been unhittable of late, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 22 innings.

Wade Miley is 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He has been awful of late, going 1-2 with an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 33 base runners in 12 innings.  Miley is 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.

Baltimore is 0-12 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  Hamels is 14-1 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 40-14 in Hamels' last 54 starts.  Texas is 25-4 in Hamels' last 29 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rangers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -150

The Arizona Diamondbacks finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an emphatic 11-2 win over the lowly Cincinnati Reds last night.  The Reds are now 0-5 in their last five games while getting outscored 14-46 in the process.  This is exactly the team the Diamondbacks needed to face to get back on track.

Arizona has a huge edge on the mound today behind Zack Greinke, who is 11-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 18 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three.  Greinke is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 13 career starts against Cincinnati.

Tim Adleman is 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 4-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in nine home starts, and 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in his last three starts.  Adleman is also 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in one career start against Arizona, which was a 6-3 loss on July 7th earlier this month.

Cincinnati is 3-17 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Diamondbacks are 20-4 in Greinke's last 24 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 6-1 in Greinke's last seven starts overall.  The Reds are 1-6 in Adleman's last seven starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Braves NL Tuesday No-Brainer on Chicago -105

The Chicago Cubs are back!  They have finally started playing up to their potential since the All-Star Break.  They have gone a perfect 4-0 while scoring a combined 31 runs in the process to get their offense going.

John Lackey is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation and should come through with an inspired effort tonight as a result.  Lackey is 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.

Sean Newcomb is 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has been especially poor of late, going 0-2 with a 13.51 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 11 earned runs and 20 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in losses to the Nationals and Astros.

Chicago is 60-31 (+21.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 7-0 in their last seven vs. a left-handed starter.  Chicago is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals had climbed their way back into contention before losing six of their last seven games overall.  They'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column tonight against the Detroit Tigers.

The Royals have the edge on the mound today with Travis Wood (4.50 ERA) over Matt Boyd, who has gone 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.074 WHIP in six road starts.  Boyd is 1-3 with a 9.11 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in seven career starts against Kansas City.

The Tigers are 1-6 in Boyd's last seven starts.  Detroit is 3-8 in its last 11 road games.  The Tigers are 9-19 in their last 28 games following a win.  The Royals are 13-3 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.  Take the Royals Tuesday.

5* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Diamondbacks -142

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after a season-high 5-game losing streak.  They  have lost eight of their last nine overall, but now they get to face one of the worst teams in baseball in the Cincinnati Reds to get back on track.  The Reds are 0-4 in their last four games while getting outscored 12-35 in the process.

Robbie Ray has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in eight road starts.  His stuff is tremendous as he has struck out 141 batters in 106 innings.

Sal Romano is one of a long list of terrible Reds' starters this season.  Their starting rotation has the worst ERA in baseball.  Romano has gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in two starts this season.

Cincinnati is 3-16 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last nine when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray's last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 7-2 in Ray's last nine starts overall.  The Reds are 22-48 in their last 70 games vs. a left-handed starter.   Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -117

The Kansas City Royals ended their five-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over the Rangers yesterday.  Look for them to start a winning streak here with a victory in Game 1 over the Detroit Tigers, who are 41-49 on the season and mired in trade discussions with several of their best players.

The Royals have a massive edge on the mound tonight behind Jason Vargas, who is 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Vargas has been untouchable at home, going 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in nine starts.

Jordan Zimmerman has been a huge disappointment in Detroit.  He has gone 5-7 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 17 starts, 0-4 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.720 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in his last three outings.

Vargas is 13-2 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last three seasons.  Vargas is 9-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Tigers are 1-9 in Zimmerman's last 10 road starts.  The Royals are 11-1 in Vargas' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 21-6 in Vargas' last 27 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will play a double-header Sunday.  I like taking the OVER in Game 2 in these situations because you know that the bullpens are going to be used up, meaning a better chance of late runs being scored in Game 2.  That's especially the case after their 16-inning marathon last night.

But this one could easily be OVER by the end of the 5th inning.  Masahiro Tanaka is having a rough year at 7-8 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 18 starts, including 3-4 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in nine road starts.  Tanaka just faced the Red Sox on June 6th, giving up 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-5 loss.

David Price is just having an average season for him at 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in nine starts.  But Price has really had troubles with the Yankees of late.  He has gone 1-4 with an 8.31 ERA in his last six starts against them, allowing a whopping 32 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 9-3 in Tanaka's last 12 road starts.  The OVER is 19-7-1 in Yankees last 27 vs. AL East foes.  The OVER is 14-3 in Price's last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The OVER is 5-1 in Price's last 6 starts vs. Yankees, while the OVER is 7-3 in Tanaka's last 10 starts vs. Red Sox.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rangers/Royals UNDER 9

The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals will struggle to put runs across the plate here Saturday night.  This is a pitcher-friendly stadium in Kansas City and we have two of the better left-handers in the league getting the ball tonight for their respective teams.

Cole Hamels has been sharp in his last two starts since returning from the DL.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners over 14 1/3 innings in those two starts, and he's now 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Hamels is also 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, yielding only 3 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.

Danny Duffy is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in five home starts.  Duffy has also had recent success against the Rangers, going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts against them, allowing just 1 earned run in 14 innings.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rangers last five games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Duffy's five home starts this season.  The UNDER is 22-7-3 in the last 32 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Astros OVER 9

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks tonight between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros.  The Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball as they are scoring 5.9 runs per game overall and 5.8 against right-handed starters.  The Twins are scoring 4.6 overall and 5.0 against right-handers.  The Astros have scored 10 or more runs in four of their last six games overall.

Jose Berrios got off to a great start for the Twins this year, but he has come back down to reality of late.  He is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Berrios doesn't enjoy facing the Astros, going 1-2 with an 8.03 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Charlie Morton recently returned from the disabled list hoping to pick up where he left off after going 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  But Morton has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in one career start against Minnesota, and the Twins won't make it easy on him tonight.

Minnesota is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Astros last nine games overall.  The OVER is 6-0-2 in Morton's last eight starts.  The OVER is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -118

The Colorado Rockies have hit the skids over the past few weeks.  But they will be motivated to go into the All-Star Break on a winning note at home here Sunday, and we are getting them at a great value as only -118 favorites over the Chicago White Sox.

Kyle Freeland has held his own this season for the Rockies, going 8-7 with a 4.00 ERA in 17 starts.  He has been at his best at home, where he is 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA despite pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Carlos Rodon is getting too much respect from the books because he has posted a 1.59 ERA in two starts this season since returning from injury.  But this is by far his toughest test yet and I expect the Rockies to jump on him early and often.

The White Sox are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games.  Chicago is 10-23 in its last 33 road games overall.  The Rockies are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss.  Colorado is 13-5 in its last 18 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Rockies Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies -133

We're getting the Colorado Rockies at a very generous price at home here today against the Chicago White Sox.  They busted out of their slump with a 12-spot yesterday against the Sox, who have lost three straight coming in.  I look for the Rockies to take Game 2 today as well.

Jeff Hoffman is one of the best young prospects in the Rockies' organization.  He has certainly held his own in eight starts this season, going 5-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in eight starts with 46 K's and only 4 HR's allowed in 48 innings.

Jose Quintana has been overvalued for much of the season.  The left-hander has gone 4-8 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 17 starts this year.  Now he'll be up against a Rockies' lineup that is hitting .292 and scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this year.

The White Sox are 4-16 in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 25-57 in their last 82 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 0-7 in its last seven interleague road games.  Colorado is 6-1 in its last seven vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Rockies Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value at home today against the New York Mets.  We are getting them as a small home favorite despite the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Martinez is 6-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in nine home starts.  Martinez has never lost to the Mets, going 3-0 (4-0 money line) with a 1.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Jacob DeGrom is 8-3 with a 3.55 ERA in 16 starts this season, and 4-1 with a 4.56 ERA in eight road starts.  DeGrom has faced the Cardinals twice in St. Louis in his career, going 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs and 28 base runners over 9 innings of work.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 26-10 in Martinez's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 8-17 in their last 25 meetings in St. Louis.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez's last four starts vs. New York.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120)

The Cleveland Indians broke out of their funk with an 11-run outburst yesterday against the San Diego Padres.  It was the second time in four games in which they have put up 11 runs.  I look for their bats to stay hot today and for them to win this game over the Tigers by multiple runs.

Carlos Carrasco has gone 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Indians.  He has owned the Tigers of late, going 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last seven starts against them, giving up only 8 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman is 5-6 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He is still looking for his first road win, going 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.634 WHIP In eight starts away from home.  And Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-2 with a whopping 10.67 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Plays on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 35-3 (92.1%) since 1997.  These teams are winning by 3.6 runs per game on average.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +130

This is a huge series for the Tampa Bay Rays.  They trail the Boston Red Sox by 4.5 games for first place in the AL East.  They took Game 1 yesterday 4-1 over Chris Sale, and now they are showing great value again as +130 dogs at home here in Game 2.

Jake Odorizzi has been solid this season at 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 15 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts.  He has held his own against the Red Sox at 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

Drew Pomeranz has been solid as well at 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.322 WHIP In 16 starts this season.  But he has struggled in two starts against the Rays, going 0-1 with an 8.60 ERA while giving up 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 9-4 in its last 13 home games.  The Rays are 4-1 in Odorizzie's last five home starts vs. Boston.  Odorizzi is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in five career home starts against Boston.  Roll with the Rays Friday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -162

The Chicago Cubs trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 3.5 games for first place in the AL Central.  They have four straight home games to close out the All-Star Break, and they have a good chance to close the gap here with a win Thursday.  They'll be motivated at home.

The Cubs have a big edge on the mound today with Mike Montgomery, who is 1-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in two home starts.  Montgomery has posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee.

Zach Davies is extremely fortunate to have a 9-4 record this season in spite of his 5.03 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 17 starts this year.  And Davies hasn't had much success against the Cubs, going 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He has allowed 8 earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts against them.

Milwaukee is 3-20 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 110-54 in their last 164 home games.  Chicago is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings, including 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Chicago.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -135

I've been backing the St. Louis Cardinals a lot lately and I'm going to continue to do so tonight.  They have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and are determined to get back to .500 by the All-Star Break with this 10-game home stand to close it out.

Now the Cardinals have a clear edge on the mound with Mike Leake, who is 6-6 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Leake has owned the Marlins, going 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Edinson Volquez gets too much respect from the books despite going 4-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 1-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA in his last three outings.  Volquez is also 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA in 18 career starts against St. Louis.

The Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 1-7 in Volquez's last eight road starts.  The Cardinals are 15-3 in their last 18 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 6-0 in Leake's last six starts vs. NL East foes.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -141

The St. Louis Cardinals are on a nice run here of late.  They have won six of their last eight games overall with their only losses coming to Max Scherzer and the Nationals, and a 5-6 loss at Arizona.  I'll gladly back them at home here against the struggling Miami Marlins, who have lost four of their last five coming in.

Adam Wainwright has been terrible on the road, but he has been an absolute beast at home this year.  The veteran right-hander has gone 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight home starts.  Wainwright is also 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in nine career starts against Miami.

Left-hander Jeff Locke is still looking for his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He has gone 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three starts.  Locke is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 career starts against St. Louis as well.

The Marlins are 0-6 in Locke's last six starts.  The Cardinals are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 36-15 in Wainwright's last 51 home starts.  The Cardinals are 40-14 in Wainwright's last 54 starts when working on four days of rest.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

The Yankees and Astros have two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are hitting .270 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season, while the Astros are hitting .283 and scoring 5.6 runs per game.  The books have clearly set this total too low today at 8.5.

Michael Fiers is 5-3 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He has given up 18 homers in 83 2/3 innings.  Fiers has posted a 7.59 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.  Both of those games had 8.5-run totals and went way over with 17 and 13 combined runs.

Luis Severino is having a solid season overall, but he has struggled of late with a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts.  Severino has an 11.56 ERA and 3.863 WHIP in one career start against New York.  That came earlier this season opposite Fiers on May 14th with 17 combined runs scored in that contest.

Houston is 9-1 OVER in Sunday games this season.  New York is 9-0 OVER in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 1-plus runs per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Their offense has come to life in scoring a combined 43 runs in their last six games, averaging 7.2 runs per game.  I look for them to stay red hot against the Washington Nationals tonight.

Michael Wacha has been very good at home this season, going 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in nine starts.  He has only allowed 3 homers in 49 2/3 innings at home this year.  Wacha has gone 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.698 WHIP in four career starts against the Nationals, simply owning them.

Gio Gonzalez has been much worse on the road than at home this year.  He has posted a 4.06 ERA in eight starts away from home.  He has also struggled recently against the Cardinals, posting a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.

Washington is 31-60 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  St. Louis is 13-1 in its last 14 vs. NL East opponents.  The Nationals are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in St. Louis.  Washington is 2-10 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -120

The Kansas City Royals have been on a nice run over the past month to get back into the AL Central race.  They have a big home series here with the Minnesota Twins, and I look for them to get a win in Game 1 tonight.

Jason Vargas has been one of the best starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 11-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in eight home starts.  Vargas has pitched 11 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Twins as well.

Ervin Santana got off to a great start this season, but he was due for some regression when you looked at the peripherals. And Santana has regressed, posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.937 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 6-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 22 career starts against Kansas City.

Vargas is 7-0 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in June games over the last three seasons.  The Twins are hitting just .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They are 0-4 in their last four vs. left-handed starters.  The Royals are 17-5 in Vargas' last 22 home starts.  Kansas City is 6-1 in Vargas' last seven starts against Minnesota, while the Twins are 1-7 in Santana's last eight starts against the Royals.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* Nationals/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on St. Louis -120

The St. Louis Cardinals have turned the corner over the last week.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and have really gotten their bats going, scoring a combined 35 runs in those five games, or an average of 7.0 runs per game.

Mike Leake has been tremendous this season, going 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 15 starts.  One of those starts came against the Nationals on April 12th in which Leake pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only four base runners in a 6-1 win at Washington.

Tanner Roark has struggled all year, going 6-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has really fallen apart in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.195 WHIP.  He has allowed 19 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings during this stretch against some pretty weak lineups in the Reds, Marlins and Braves.

Washington is 31-59 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last four starts.  St. Louis is 12-1 in its last 13 vs. NL East opponents.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Leake's last five starts vs. NL East foes.  The Nationals are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -110

Any time you can get the Cubs at basically even money it's worth a look.  They are undervalued right now due to their surprisingly slow start.  But they picked up perhaps their biggest win of the season, erasing a two-run deficit with two outs in the 9th inning to beat the Nationals 5-4 last night.  Now they come into this series with the Reds with confidence.

Mike Montgomery has been great in a Cubs uniform, but he gets zero respect from oddsmakers.  The left-hander has gone 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Reds are 3-14 against left-handed starters this season.

Scott Feldman has been solid but nothing special, going 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 16 starts for the Reds.  Feldman faced the Cubs for the first and only time in his career earlier this season on May 17th, giving up 7 runs and 8 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-7 loss.

The Reds are 19-47 in their last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 4-15 in its last 19 games overall.  Chicago is 38-13 in its last 51 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Cubs Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have actually lost two out of three against the crosstown rival Los Angeles Dodgers in this series. They want to square the series here in Game 4 with a win, and they'll have a great chance to do that due to their huge edge on the mound.

Ace Clayton Kershaw gets the ball looking to improve upon his 11-2 record with a 2.47 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in seven road starts.  Kershaw is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in nine career starts against the Angels.

JC Ramirez is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 14 starts for the Angels this season.  He has gone 0-3 with a 4.83 ERA in seven home starts as well.  While Ramirez has held his own, he is clearly in over his head against Kershaw and this red hot Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers are 40-11 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, winning by 2.7 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 34-7 in Kershaw's last 41 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 21-1 in Karshaw's last 22 starts vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base over the last two seasons, winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.