Winning Sports Picks

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -114

The New York Yankees (69-62) still have a shot to earn a Wild Card spot in the American League. They'll fight until the finish line to get one. Meanwhile, Toronto (59-73) is in last place in the AL East with nothing to play for.

I'll gladly back the Yankees tonight due to the edge they have on the mound. Andy Pettite is 5-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and 2-0 with a miniscule 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. Those three have come against Toronto, Boston and Detroit, so he has gotten better as the season has gone on.

J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in the majors. The left-hander has gone 3-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Happ has posted a 5.46 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees as well.

The Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. New York is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing New York. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros +142

After winning eight of their last nine games overall, the Chicago White Sox (54-75) are being way overvalued tonight against the Houston Astros. Chicago still has nothing to play for, and off a series win over Texas, it is in for a big letdown tonight in Game 1 of this series against Houston.

I really like getting the Astros at this price with the underrated Brett Oberholtzer on the mound. The left-hander has gone 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in four starts this season. That's impressive when you consider those four starts came against the Angels, Rangers, Red Sox & Orioles.

Andre Rienzo is having a solid season for Chicago at 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. However, he pitched poorly in his lone home start, giving up four earned runs, two homers and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings against the Twins on August 10.

The White Sox are 3-19 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 7-19 in its last 26 games as a favorite. Bet the Astros Monday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's +165

After losing four of their last five, the Oakland A's (72-57) have dropped 2.5 games behind Texas for first place in the AL West. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory as they head to Detroit for Game 1 of this series Monday.

I believe the A's are showing tremendous value with the underrated A.J. Griffin on the mound tonight. The right-hander has gone 10-9 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.165 WHIP through 26 starts this season.

Anibal Sanchez is having a great season for Detroit, but he's getting too much respect here. In his lone career home start against Oakland, Sanchez gave up six runs, five earned, over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-12 loss.

Griffin is 18-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Griffin is 19-5 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Oakland Monday.

15* Red Sox/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +100

I'm going to side with the home team tonight in the Los Angeles Dodgers at a great price against the Boston Red Sox. Jake Peavy is getting way too much respect from the books here.

Peavy has given up four earned runs or more in five of his last eight starts. He only has eight strikeouts in his last three outings, and he hasn't made it past the 7th inning in any of his last eight starts.

Los Angeles has won 46 of its last 57 games overall. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 14-2 in its last 16 during Game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Capuanos last 7 starts. These last four trends combine for a 31-2 (94%) system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Saints/Texans FOX Sunday No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -142

The Arizona Diamondbacks (66-62) are still in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They cannot afford to lose many more games the rest of the way, but the key is that they believe they have a chance.

With the edge the Diamondbacks have on the mound Sunday over the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (58-71), I'll gladly lay the juice and side with them in this one. Pat Corbin is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

Arizona's left-hander is 13-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 25 starts this season. Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in one career start against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Tyler Cloyd, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in seven starts this year.

Arizona is 22-4 in Corbin's last 26 starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 12-1 in Corbin's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 1-6 in Cloyd's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* NL Saturday Mound Mismatch on Pittsburgh Pirates -125

The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-52) have a lot to play for right now as they are in a three-way race with St. Louis and Cincinnati for first place in the NL Central. The San Francisco Giants (56-72) have nothing to play for as they sit in last place in the NL West.

With the edge the Pirates have on the mound tonight, coupled with the motivation factor, this one is a no-brainer. Francisco Liriano is 14-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing one earned run over 16 innings.

Tim Lincecum is on the decline. He has posted his third straight disappointing season, going 6-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.320 WHIP over 25 starts. Lincecum is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA In his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 22 base runners over 11 innings. The former Cy Young winner is also 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, yielding eight earned runs and 17 base runners over eight innings.

Liriano is 9-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. Liriano is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. The Pirates are 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Liriano and Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates Saturday.

25* NFL Preseason GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Rams +7

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Chiefs/Steelers UNDER 40

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -106

The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-62) are seven games back of Cincinnati for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Needless to say, they cannot afford to lose many more games if they want to make a run at the postseason.

I like the Diamondbacks' chances of bouncing back Saturday with the underrated Randall Delgado on the mound. The right-hander has gone 4-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

Delgado has posted a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Ethan Martin, who is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in four starts this season for the Phillies.

Arizona is 6-1 in Delgado's last 7 starts overall. The Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. Philadelphia is 3-13 in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates (75-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-71), who sit in last place in the NL West.

Pittsburgh is loaded with underrated starting pitchers. Charlie Morton is no exception. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 12 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three. Morton has posted a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Madison Bumgarner is one of the better young starters in the game. That being said, he's going to find it hard to be motivated to pitch with his team clearly out of the playoff race. Bumgarner has already started to show signs of that, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Pirates are 41-18 in their last 59 vs. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 0-7 in Bumgarners last 7 start's with the total set at 6.5 or lower. San Francisco is 0-4 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts as a favorite. Bet the Pirates Friday.

20* Seahawks/Packers CBS Friday ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +120

The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-61) are showing tremendous value as a road underdog to the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (57-70). While Arizona still has a lot to play for as it chases the NL West Title and NL Wild Card spots, Philadelphia has nothing to play for.

Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated starters in the league for Arizona. The left-hander is 9-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 25 starts, 4-6 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Cole Hamels is having a sub-par season in Philadelphia. The left-hander is 5-13 with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts, including 2-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 home starts. Miley is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Philadelphia, pitching six shutout innings of a 9-5 victory.

Hamels is 3-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Arizona is 5-0 in Miley's last 5 starts. The Phillies are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +115

The Pittsburgh Pirates (74-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-70), who sit in last place in the NL West.

Jeff Locke has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year, going 9-4 with a 2.90 ERA over 24 starts. He has been virtually unhittable away from home, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.138 WHIP In 12 road starts.

Matt Cain has been one of the most overrated starters this year. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 4.90 ERA in 14 home starts. That's not good when you consider AT&T Park is certainly a pitcher-friendly one.

The Pirates are 40-18 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 home games. The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts. Take the Pirates Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -134

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing solid value as a small home favorite against the Atlanta Braves. Not only do they need this game more as they are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central, but they also have a big edge on the mound.

Joe Kelly is 4-3 with a 3.01 ERA in eight starts and 24 relief appearances in 2013. He has been dominant as a starter, going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in his eight starts. Kelly pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his lone start against Atlanta this year on July 27.

Paul Maholm has been at his worst on the road this year, going 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. Maholm has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in his last three starts, all of which came on the road.

Maholm is 0-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Maholm and the Braves are getting outscored by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Panthers/Ravens ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Carolina +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Orioles -115

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Baltimore Orioles now trail them by 5.5 games for the AL East lead. Needless to say, the Orioles will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season to avoid the sweep.

Due to their motivation and edge on the mound, Baltimore represents my strongest play of the entire 2013 MLB season tonight. Wei-Yin Chen is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in six home starts.

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. The right-hander is 10-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 25 starts, 5-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts.

Chen has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Hellickson sports a 5.85 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season. In his lone start at Baltimore on May 17, Hellickson gave up eight earned runs over 7 2/3 innings.

The Rays are 5-17 in their last 22 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa is 1-6 in its last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rays are 5-11 in Hellickson's last 16 road starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take this combined 10-0 system backing Chen and the Orioles straight to the bank. Bet Baltimore Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Cubs +120

The Chicago Cubs should not be an underdog to the Washington Nationals tonight. Neither team has much to play for, but after an 11-1 victory last night, the Cubs clearly aren't packing it in.

Chris Rusin has been solid as a starter this season for Chicago. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in six starts this year.

He'll be up against Dan Haren, who is 7-11 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts for Washington. Haren is 1-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.

This play falls into a system that is 53-27 (66.2%, +28.5 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game. Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -108

The Baltimore Orioles pounded out 15 hits last night but only managed three wins in a 3-4 loss to Tampa Bay. Now, trailing the Rays by 4.5 games, the Orioles really need to get Game 2 tonight.

I like their chances with the underrated Miguel Gonzalez on the mound. The right-hander is 8-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. The Orioles are 5-1 in those six contests.

The Orioles are 12-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 home starts. Baltimore is 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +138

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a home underdog to NL East rival Atlanta Tuesday. Considering the edge they have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back the home team at this price.

Zach Wheeler is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Brandon Beachy is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season for Atlanta. Beachy is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in one career start against New York, while Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Wheeler is 7-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The Braves are 7-15 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. New York is 7-1 in Wheeler's last 8 starts overall. Take the Mets Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +137

The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost two straight for the first time since June. Yaisel Puig blew up in the dugout en route to an 0-for-5 performance at the plate. After an amazing run, the Dodgers could finally be coming back down to earth.

Miami has a big edge on the mound tonight, which is why I'll back it at an excellent price at home. Jacob Turner is 3-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA in six home starts.

Chris Capuano is 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts.

The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is 6-1 in Turner's last 7 starts as a home underdog. Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +137

The Arizona Diamondbacks (64-59) are in a position where they cannot afford to lose too many more games if they want to make the postseason. Given their best starter goes tonight, I'll back them at a great price against the Cincinnati Reds.

Pat Corbin has been one of the best starters in the big leagues this season. The left-hander is 12-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 24 starts. The Diamondbacks are 20-4 (+14.7 units) in those 24 outings.

Corbin has faced the Cincinnati Reds twice in his career. The left-hander has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in those two outings, allowing just four earned runs and 14 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is hitting .241 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in Corbin's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Arizona Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Redskins ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -137

The St. Louis Cardinals (71-52) have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they trail the Pittsburgh Pirates by one game for the NL Central lead. They are also only 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (54-70) has little to play for.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals tonight due to the edge they have on the mound. Shelby Miller has been tremendous, going 11-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 23 starts. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada is 5-4 with a 4.71 ERA in 14 starts, including 2-2 with a 7.72 ERA in six home starts.

Miller is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one earned run over 13 innings. Estrada is 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 12-26 in their last 38 vs. NL Central foes. St. Louis is 27-11 in its last 38 meetings with Milwaukee. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +123

The Baltimore Orioles are showing tremendous value as a home underdog tonight. Trailing the Tampa Bay Rays by 3.5 games, this is clearly a very important homestand for the Orioles.

Chris Tillman has quietly had a very solid season in Baltimore. The right-hander is 14-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 24 starts this year. The Orioles have gone 18-6 in those starts for +12.6 units against the money line.

David Price is having an excellent year for Tampa Bay as well, but he's clearly overvalued here. The left-hander is 6-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 18 starts this season with the Rays going 9-9 (-5.8 units). Price was rocked for five earned runs over six innings in his last start at Baltimore.

Tillman is 15-3 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 12-1 in Tillman's last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Baltimore Monday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +112

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value Sunday as a road underdog to hated rival Boston. New York still has an outside shot of making the postseason, but it needs a big finish.

C.C. Sabathia isn't having his best year, but there's no question he's the better starter in this one. I'll gladly fade Ryan Dempster, who is 6-8 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.

Dempster has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-5 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.992 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. His teams are 1-6 in those seven contests. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

20* Colts/Giants FOX Sunday No-Brainer on New York -1.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

20* Jaguars/Jets NFL Network No-Brainer on New York -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals have continued to play out their season. They have won five of their last seven games overall. After a one-run loss at Atlanta last night, I look for them to take out their season-long frustration in Game 2 behind ace Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg is 6-9 despite a sensational 2.83 ERA and 1.039 WHIP over 23 starts this season. He's coming off his best start of the year, pitching a complete game shutout in a 6-0 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies last time out.

While Mike Minor is having a solid season for the Braves as well, he has struggled against tonight's opponent. Minor has posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven career starts against Washington. Meanwhile, Strasburg sports a 3.43 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 11 career starts against Atlanta.

Washington is 17-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 3 seasons. The Nationals are 31-20 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Bucs/Patriots FOX Friday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -130

The Cincinnati Reds put together a tremendous run in the second half last year to win the NL Central. Once again, they are doing the same in 2013, quietly playing their best baseball of the season at the right time. Cincinnati has won eight of nine coming in.

Mike Leake is having a tremendous season in Cincinnati. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 23 starts. Leake has been at his best on the road, going 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.

Tom Gorzelanny has pitched well in limited action this season. However, he has struggled against tonight's opponent in the past. Gorzelanny is 3-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cincinnati.

The Reds are 8-2 in Leake's last 10 road starts. Cincinnati is 44-21 in its last 65 games as a road favorite. The Reds are 42-16 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Bet the Reds Friday.

20* NFL Friday Preseason ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo Bills -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
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15* Reds/Brewers NL Central No-Brainer on Cincinnati -135

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They went on a huge run in the second half last year to win the NL Central, and they're on track to do the same thing in 2013. Cincinnati has won seven of its last eight heading into this series with Milwaukee.

With Tony Cingrani on the mound for the Reds tonight, I look for them to continue to roll. Cingrani is one of the best young starters in the game, going 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 14 starts and six relief appearances. He has struck out 102 batters over 87 1/3 innings.

Cingrani has been really tough of late, going 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts. The left-hander has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in two career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Reds are 41-16 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 45-22 in its last 67 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is scoring just 3.6 runs/game against left-handed starters, while Cincinnati is scoring 4.6 runs/game against right-handed starters. Take the Reds Thursday.

20* NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* AL Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mariners/Rays UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. Both Joe Saunders and Alex Cobb are failing to get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

Cobb is having a tremendous season, going 6-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Cobb is 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle. The UNDER is 3-0 in those three contests.

Cobb is 9-1 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 19-5 UNDER (+13.0 Units) at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Saunders' last 7 starts as a road underdog. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Cobb's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Rays last 51 overall. The UNDER is 46-22-3 in Rays last 71 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The UNDER is 38-12-1 in the last 51 meetings in Tampa Bay. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +228

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog against the Oakland A's tonight. They actually have the edge on the mound in this one, but this line does not reflect that at all.

Rookie Jarred Cosart is quietly having a brilliant season in Houston. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in five starts this year, including 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in three road starts.

Oakland's Jarrod Parker is clearly being overvalued in this one. The right-hander is 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA in 23 starts, 4-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 12 home starts, and 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts.

Cosart pitched a gem in his line start against Oakland on July 23, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. The Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 Wednesday games. The A's are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Roll with Houston Wednesday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost six straight games to fall four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they welcome the Seattle Mariners.

Ace David Price gets the ball tonight looking to keep up his tremendous work of late. Price is 6-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 17 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing two earned runs and 15 base runners over 23 1/3 innings.

I'll gladly fade Aaron Harang, who is 5-10 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.315 WHIP In 19 starts this season. Harang has been beaten up in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs, four homers and 17 base runners in seven innings of work.

Price is a perfect 9-0 against the run line (+10.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Angels/Yankees OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for two great lineups playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. The Yankees and Angels combined for 21 runs yesterday, and they'll have no problem surpassing this 7.5-run total tonight.

Jered Weaver and Ivan Nova are each having solid seasons, but that's why this total has been set too low. When you look at their career numbers against the opposition, it's easy to see that the OVER is the play here.

Weaver is 6-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 13 career starts against New York. The OVER is 8-4-1 in those contests. Nova is 3-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in five career starts against Los Angeles. The OVER is 4-1 in those games.

The OVER is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 10-3 in Weaver's last 13 starts vs. AL East foes. The OVER is 5-0 in Nova's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in New York. The OVER is 4-0 in Nova's last 4 starts vs. Los Angeles. The OVER is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 road starts vs. Yankees. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians +100

The Cleveland Indians trail the Detroit Tigers by seven games for first place in the AL Central division. After losing the first game of this series to Minnesota, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight.

Zach McAallister is having a solid season while posting a 4.01 ERA over 15 starts in 2013. I'll gladly back him over Minnesota's Sam Deduno, who is clearly being overvalued in this contest tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 34-11 (75.6"%, +28.7 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team. Bet the Indians Tuesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127

The Chicago Cubs are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to NL Central rival Cincinnati Tuesday. That's especially the case considering ace Jeff Samardzija gets the ball.

Samardzija has some of the best stuff in baseball. That's evident by the fact that he has struck out 158 batters over 153 1/3 innings. Samardzija has posted a 3.52 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey has been at his worst away from home this season. The right-hander is 3-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013. Bailey has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago.

Chicago is 35-21 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. This play falls into a system that is 86-47 (64.7%, +29.2 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (CINCINNATI) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +140

The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees have little to play for the rest of the way with where they sit in the standings. I'll gladly back the dog in this match-up tonight as the Angels are showing excellent value given the circumstances.

Jason Vargas has been an underrated starter throughout his career. The left-hander is 6-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 14 starts this season.

C.C. Sabathia is one of the more overrated starters in the league. He's clearly on the decline, going 9-10 with a 4.73 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last three starts.

Vargas is a very profitable 17-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Yankees are 0-6 in Sabathia's last 6 starts. New York is 1-8 in its last 9 games following a win. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on San Francisco Giants +125

The San Francisco Giants get the nod Tuesday as a road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Neither team has much to play for at this point, so given the edge the Giants have on the mound I'll gladly back them at this price.

Madison Bumgarner has been a big bright spot in an otherwise forgetful season for San Francisco. The left-hander is 11-7 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 23 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts.

Gio Gonzalez is 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander has struggled of late, going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.937 WHIP in his last three outings.

Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against Washington. San Francisco is 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. The Nationals are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 Tuesday starts. Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -120

The Cleveland Indians finally put an end to their 6-game losing streak with a 6-5 victory over the Angels Sunday. Trailing Detroit by seven games for first place in the AL Central, they cannot afford to start another losing streak tonight.

Cleveland rookie Danny Salazar has impressed in only two starts this season. He has posted a 3.29 ERA and 0.805 WHIP while striking out 17 batters over 13 2/3 innings. He faced two of the toughest lineups in baseball in the Tigers and Blue Jays in those two contests.

Now, Salazar should have no problem shutting down one of the worst lineups in the league. The Minnesota Twins are hitting just .241 and scoring 4.0 runs/game on the season, including .237 and 3.9 against right-handed starters. Cleveland is hitting .271 and scoring 5.2 runs/game against left-handed starters.

Minnesota is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. These three trends combine for a 27-3 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Indians Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -113

The Detroit Tigers (69-47) are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Chicago White Sox (44-72) Monday. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have a lot to play for, while the White Sox are one of the coldest and have little to play for.

The underrated Doug Fister is having yet another solid season in Detroit. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Fister has posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago. In his lone start against the White Sox this season, Fister allowed one earned run over eight innings on July 2nd. Chris Sale is 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Detroit is 26-9 in its last 35 overall. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts. The White Sox are 20-48 in their last 68 overall. Chicago is 0-6 in its last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Tigers Monday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +142

The Chicago Cubs clearly are playing out their season. They just took two out of three at St. Louis, and now I look for them to take Game 1 of this series against fellow NL Central foe Cincinnati Monday.

Travis Wood is quietly having an excellent season in Chicago. The left-hander is 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 23 starts in 2013. The Reds are only hitting .243 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starts this year.

Mat Latos is having a solid season for Cincinnati, but he has struggled in his last two starts at Chicago. He has given up seven earned runs and 18 base runners over 11 innings in those two starts for a 5.73 ERA and 1.636 WHIP.

In two career home starts against Cincinnati, Wood has given up just three earned runs and 12 base runners over 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Cubs Monday.

15* Rays/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 6.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers will take part in a pitcher's duel tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. I'll back the UNDER 6.5 runs because of it.

Clayton Kershaw has been the best starter in baseball this season. The left-hander is 10-7 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 24 starts this season with the UNDER going 15-9. Kershaw is 6-4 with a 1.59 ERA in 13 home starts, and 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts.

While Jeremy Hellickson isn't having nearly as good of a year, he's plenty good enough to shut down the Dodgers tonight. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The UNDER is 11-10-2 in those starts.

The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Rays last 51 games overall. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Hellickson's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Dodgers last 13 home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Colts NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Buffalo +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +110

The Oakland A's (65-50) trail the Texas Rangers by one game for first place in the AL West. While Oakland has a lot to play for at this point in the season, Toronto (54-62) does not as it sits in last place in the AL East.

I'll gladly back the underrated A.J. Griffin as an underdog today. Griffin has gone 10-8 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has never lost to Toronto, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays.

R.A. Dickey simply does not enjoy pitching at home in hitter-friendly Toronto. The knuckleballer is 4-6 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. He has given up 18 homers at home compared to just 7 on the road. Plus, Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland.

The A's are 55-23 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record. Griffin is 10-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Griffin is 17-4 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the A's Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -147

The Los Angeles Dodgers will run away with this one tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles is the hottest team in baseball having won 34 of its last 42 games overall. After erasing a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6 yesterday, this team clearly has something special going.

With Zach Greinke on the mound, they'll continue this torrid run. Greinke has gone 9-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in nine home starts. The Dodgers are 8-1 in those nine starts.

Roberto Hernandez is 6-11 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Hernandez is 1-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in nine road starts in 2013.

Greinke is 34-4 (+28.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles have a lot to play for at 64-51 on the season. The San Francisco Giants have little hope at 51-64 on the year. After a big 5-2 extra innings win last night, I look for the Orioles to come back with another victory in Game 2 Saturday.

Wei-Yin Chen has gone 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 13 starts this season for Baltimore, and 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in eight road starts.

Chad Gaidin is having a solid season in limited action for the Giants. However, Gaudin is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-5 in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Saturday.

15* NFL Friday Night Line Mistake on Kansas City Chiefs +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

20* NFL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +191

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, I look for the Marlins to put an end to Atlanta's 13-game winning streak.

Miami's Jacob Turner has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Turner is also 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Brandon Beachy just recently returned from Tommy John surgery, and he may never be the same. Beachy has been rocked in two starts this year, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while allowing 10 earned runs and three homers over 10 innings.

Beachy is 4-10 (-12.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career. Beachy is 5-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents in his career. Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +154

The Washington Nationals should not be getting this much respect Friday. They were just swept by the Atlanta Braves last series to drop to 54-60 on the season. Had they swept that series, they would have gotten back to .500 on the season. Now, the Nationals are essentially done for.

John Lannan has been an underrated starter throughout his career in this league. He has gone 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 12 starts this season. He clearly likes sticking it to his former team, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals in 2013.

Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 6-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 20 starts this season. Haren has been at his worst at home this year, going 4-4 with a 6.08 ERA in nine starts.

Haren is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia. In fact, his teams are 0-7 over those seven starts, so he has never beaten the Phillies. Take Philadelphia Friday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers NFL Network BAILOUT on Seattle -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Thursday Night Line Mistake on St. Louis Rams +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +147

After losing the first three games of this series, the Cleveland Indians now trail the Detroit Tigers by six games for 1st place in the AL Central. They will be highly motivated to win Game 4 tonight and avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with the underrated Zach McAllister on the mound. The right-hander has been dominant at home this season, going 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in seven home starts.

McCallister has also posted an impressive 2.28 ERA in four career starts against Detroit. While Max Scherzer is having a solid season, he has struggled against the Indians in the past. Scherzer has posted a 4.59 ERA in 14 career starts against Cleveland.

The Indians are 10-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line off 2 straight home losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons. They are bouncing back to outscore their opponents 6.6 to 3.4 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Bet Cleveland Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -110

The Texas Rangers have won eight of their last nine games overall to pull within one game of the Oakland A's for the AL West lead. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, the Rangers have an excellent chance to pull even with Oakland should the A's lose to the Reds.

Alexi Ogando is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA over 13 starts this season. Ogando has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Tommy Hanson is simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts when its opponent allows 5 runs or more in its previous game. The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Texas. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

Note - I have changed this selection from a 15* to a 20* play.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -127

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this Interleague series Tuesday. The Orioles (61-51) trail the Red Sox by six games for 1st place in the AL East, making this a very important series.

Bud Norris was quietly a solid acquisition for the Orioles at the trade deadline. The right-hander has gone 7-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 22 starts this season. Norris is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.

Edinson Volquez is one of the worst starters the league has to offer. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.591 WHIP In 23 starts this season. Volquez has never beaten Baltimore, going 0-1 (0-3 money line) with a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Baltimore is 26-10 in its last 36 games following an off day. The Orioles are 49-22 in their last 71 games following a loss. The Padres are 4-15 in their last 19 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks +111

The Arizona Diamondbacks get the nod Tuesday as a home underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Trailing the Dodgers by six games for first place in the NL West, this is a very important series for the Diamondbacks.

Arizona clearly has the edge on the mound tonight with Wade Miley, who is 8-8 with a 3.68 ERA in 22 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. That includes a 7-0 win at Tampa Bay on July 31 as Miley pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings to get the win.

Jeremy Hellickson was Miley's opponent in that July 31 game. Hellickson gave up four earned runs and nine base runners over 4 1/3 innings to take the loss. He has posted a 4.60 ERA in 22 starts this season, including a 4.75 ERA in 10 road starts.

The Rays are 0-4 in Hellicksons last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is 4-0 in Miley's last 4 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague home games. Arizona is 13-3 in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +142

The Oakland A's (64-47) are showing some of their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. After losing four of their last five coming in, the A's are certainly highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Daniel Straily has been solid for Oakland this season, going 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 17 starts. While Mat Latos has posted a better ERA (3.37), he puts more runners on base (1.284 WHIP) than Straily, who has been unlucky this season.

This play falls into a system that is 59-31 (65.6%, +40.3 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs.

Oakland is 22-8 in its last 30 interleague games. The A's are 15-4 in their last 19 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter, including 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games. Roll with the A's Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. I look for a slug fest between two of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Jerome Williams is in line to get rocked tonight just as he has all season. Williams is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.512 WHIP over 15 starts, including 1-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight home starts.

Martin Perez hasn't been much better, going 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine starts in 2013. He has been at his worst on the road, going 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five starts away from home.

The OVER is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Angels last 4 overall. The OVER is 9-2 in Williams' last 11 starts as a home favorite. The OVER is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings, including 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -120

The Washington Nationals are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a small home favorite with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Atlanta comes in hot, but Strasburg and company will cool the Braves off at home in this one.

Strasburg has posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over 21 starts this season. He has been virtually unhittable at home, going 4-4 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in 11 home starts in 2013.

Mike Minor is having a solid season for the Braves, too, but he's no Strasburg. Plus, Minor is 3-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in six career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is 35-17 in its last 52 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Nationals Monday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Tigers -113

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Cleveland Indians tonight. Both teams are two of the hottest teams in baseball, but given the edge the Tigers have on the mound, I'll back them Monday.

Anibal Sanchez is 9-7 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in his last three starts. Sanchez is 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in five career starts against Cleveland as well.

Corey Kluber has been decent for the Indians, going 7-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 18 starts and two relief appearances. However, Kluber is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.624 WHIP In five career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Detroit is 6-0 in its last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-1 in their last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Dolphins/Cowboys HOF Game No-Brainer on Miami -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* AL Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/Angels OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball, and I look for each to get after their opposing pitching staffs today.

Both teams are scoring 4.6 runs/game this season. Mark Buehrle is in line to get rocked in this one. The left-hander is 7-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA in 11 road starts.

C.J. Wilson is having a decent year for Los Angeles at 11-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. However, he has struggled of late, giving up 9 earned runs and 22 base runners over 11 innings in his last two starts.

The OVER is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 44-20-2 in Blue Jays last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 26-12-4 in Wilson's last 42 starts overall. The OVER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Rays OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. Both starting pitchers are below-average to say the least, so I look for each lineup to have a big day at the plate in this one.

Guillermo Moscoso is no more than a fill-in starter in this league. He hasn't done that very well of late, either. Moscoso has gone 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 30 base runners over 13 1/3 innings.

Roberto Hernandez has been overrated all season for the Rays. The right-hander has gone 6-11 with a 4.71 ERA in 20 starts this year. Hernandez is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in one career start against San Francisco, while Moscoso is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.172 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

San Francisco is 22-8 OVER (+14.7 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The Giants are 26-13 OVER (+12.5 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros +140

With the edge the Houston Astros have on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back them at this price against the lowly Minnesota Twins Saturday. They'll be hungry to bounce back from an extra innings loss to the Twins last night.

Erik Bedard has pitched pretty well for Houston this season, posting a 4.28 ERA in 21 appearances. The left-hander has been lights out of late, sporting a 2.20 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 22 batters over 16 1/3 innings.

Kyle Gibson and the Twins are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers in this one. Gibson is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in six starts this year, including 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two home starts.

Minnesota is 11-28 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in home games with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Bedard is 11-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The Twins are 1-8 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Astros Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants +1.5 (+101)

The San Francisco Giants get the nod Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays. While I believe the Giants will win this game, I'm going to back them on the Run Line as an underdog still for some insurance.

San Francisco has quietly won three straight coming in. Tim Lincecum has lit it up in two of his last three starts, allowing two earned runs over 16 innings. David Price is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. The left-hander is just 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA in seven home starts this season.

San Francisco is 20-5 against the run line (+13.7 Units) in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 40-16 against the run line (+21.9 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.

San Francisco is 30-12 against the run line (+19.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. The Giants are 28-11 against the run line (+17.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. Roll with San Francisco on the Run Line Saturday.

15* DBacks/Red Sox Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +140

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing tremendous value Saturday as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. With the edge the DBacks have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them at this price.

Patrick Corbin has arguably been the most underrated starter in the entire league this year. Corbin has gone 12-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three starts.

Jake Peavy is getting too much respect from the books tonight. Peavy has gone 8-4 with a 4.27 ERA in 13 starts this year. The right-hander has really struggled of late, posting a 7.05 ERA in his last three starts while allowing five home runs in the process.

The Diamondbacks are 18-3 in Corbin's 21 starts this season. Arizona is 8-1 in Corbin's nine road starts this year. Corbin is 9-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* AL Friday Night Line Mistake on Houston Astros +151

The Houston Astros are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Minnesota Twins tonight. Minnesota (45-60) should not be this heavily favored against anyone.

Houston rookie Jarred Cosart is getting overlooked once again tonight. This guy has been sensational since coming into the league in early July, going 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 1.143 WHIP over three starts. He has allowed just two earned runs and 13 hits in 21 innings.

Sam Deduno has been one of Minnesota's better starters this year, but he's clearly being overvalued in this one. Deduno has gone 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

This play falls into a system that is 31-11 (73.8%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (MINNESOTA) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), after a loss by 4 runs or more. Take the Astros Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Colorado Rockies +150

After getting swept by the Atlanta Braves last series, the Colorado Rockies head into this Game 1 Friday highly motivated for a victory. After taking four out of five from rival St. Louis last series, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin is not getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers tonight. Chacin is 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts this season, and 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three. Chacin has been at his best away from home this year, going 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven road starts.

Gerrit Cole is getting way too much respect from the books tonight. The rookie hasn't been nearly as dominant as this line would suggest. In fact, Cole is 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA in nine starts, including 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in six home starts.

The Rockies are 7-2 in Chacin's last 9 starts overall. Colorado is 6-1 in Chacin's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Pirates are 1-4 in Cole's last 5 starts overall. Bet the Rockies Friday.

15* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels will take part in a slug fest tonight. The books have set this number way too low as two of the most potent offenses in the league will be up against two below-average starting pitchers and bullpens.

Josh Johnson is 1-7 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in five road starts, and 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in his last three starts.

Garrett Richards is 2-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 35 appearances this season. Richards is 1-2 with a 4.65 ERA in five starts, including 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up 10 runs, 5 earned, over 4 1/3 innings in a 2-11 loss at Toronto in his lone career start against the Blue Jays.

Johnson is 14-2 OVER (+11.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Johnson is 16-4 OVER (+12.1 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. The OVER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals +107

The St. Louis Cardinals are more motivated for a victory tonight than at any other point in the season. They have lost the first four games of this series to Pittsburgh, and seven straight overall coming in.

I look for the underrated Joe Kelly to help get them back in the win column tonight. Kelly has gone 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.157 WHIP as a starter this season, including 1-0 with a miniscule 0.77 ERA in two road starts.

Charlie Morton is getting too much respect from the books in this one. Morton has gone 2-7 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in 11 career starts against St. Louis. This is clearly one team he doesn't enjoy facing.

St. Louis is 15-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. The Cardinals are 37-17 in their last 54 games following a loss. Morton is 1-10 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +225

The Houston Astros just refuse to give up on their season. They have gotten very hot at the plate of late, scoring a combined 29 runs over their last five contests. That includes an 11-0 outburst against the Orioles last night.

Bud Norris is clearly getting too much respect from the books here. He will have mixed emotions going up against his former team after being traded to Baltimore from Houston yesterday. I believe the advantage goes to the Astros as they'll know what to expect from him.

Jordan Lyles is getting overlooked in this one. He has quietly had a solid season, especially when pitching away from home. Lyles is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA over seven road starts in 2013. Norris is 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA in his last three starts overall.

The Orioles have lost six of their last eight games overall. Baltimore is 2-8 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Astros Thursday.

25* NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -117

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have lost the first three games of this series to fall out of first place in the NL Central. I have no doubt they'll bounce back behind ace Adam Wainwright to avoid the sweep tonight.

Wainwright is 13-6 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander thrives in these situations, coming through when his team needs him most. That is certainly the case tonight as St. Louis puts an end to its 6-game losing streak overall.

St. Louis is 15-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. Wainwright is 9-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less this season.

The Cardinals are 13-3 in Wainwright's last 16 road starts, including 11-2 in his last 13 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is 37-16 in its last 53 games following a loss. The Cardinals are 62-30 in their last 92 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet St. Louis Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati Reds -122

The Cincinnati Reds are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday afternoon. They currently sit in third place in the NL Central at 59-49 after dropping each of their last five games overall heading into this showdown with the San Diego Padres.

Homer Bailey is having a solid year for the Reds in 2013. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.162 WHIP over 21 starts this year. He'll be up against Eric Stults, who has allowed 10 runs, 8 earned, and 21 base runners over 11 innings while losing each of his last two starts.

Bailey is 4-0 with a 4.30 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego. The Reds are 6-1 in those seven contests. The Reds are 41-15 in Bailey's last 56 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Padres are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. The Padres are 0-4 in Stults' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego is 6-14 in its last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Cincinnati Wednesday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -149

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game with San Diego highly motivated for a victory. They have lost four straight coming in, including three by exactly one run. It's time to get back in the win column tonight folks.

Ace Mat Latos gets the ball just in time to stop the bleeding. The right-hander is having an excellent year, going 10-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 21 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 road starts.

Latos will be up against Edinson Volquez, who is 8-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Volquez is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 2-1 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Latos is 25-5 (+15.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997. The Padres are 1-6 in Volquez's last 7 home starts. Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

This is a great price for the Colorado Rockies tonight over the Atlanta Braves. After losing Game 1 of this series 8-9 to the Braves, I look for the Rockies to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.

Juan Nicasio is one of the more underrated starters in the league. He has absolutely dominated the opposition of late, going 2-0 with a miniscule 0.47 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just one earned run over 19 innings during that span.

Alex Wood is clearly getting too much respect from the books in this one. Wood is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 2.046 WHIP in two starts this season. He has allowed five earned runs and 10 base runners over 7 1/3 innings as a starter this year.

The Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss. The Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Rockies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Arizona Diamondbacks +150

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a huge 2-1 victory over Boston Monday to take over first place in the AL East Division. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks had Monday off, so they come in fresh and ready to go.

Tampa is clearly in a big letdown spot here after gaining first place in the AL East. Plus, Roberto Hernandez is once again getting too much respect from the books. Hernandez is 5-11 with a 4.92 ERA in 19 starts this season.

Arizona comes in hungry for a victory after dropping its last two games coming in. The Diamondbacks are 20-11 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 4-1 in its last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay. Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Mets +126

Any time the Miami Marlins are this heavily favored they are worthy of a fade. That's especially the case given who the New York Mets have on the mound in this one.

Zach Wheeler is having a solid season at 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA over seven starts in 2013. He has been absolutely dominant on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts away from home.

Nathan Eovaldi is getting too much respect from the books tonight. He has gone 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his last three outings.

New York is 11-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The Mets are 4-0 in Wheeler's last 4 starts as an underdog. Roll with New York Tuesday.

15* Blue Jays/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +150

The Toronto Blue Jays get the call Monday as a big road underdog to the Oakland A's. Considering I believe the Blue Jays actually have the edge on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them at this price.

Esmil Rogers is quietly having a solid season for Toronto. The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 3.49 ERA as a starter this year, including 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA in five road starts.

A.J. Griffin is having a good season for Oakland as well, but he's clearly getting too much respect from the books tonight. Griffin has gone 9-7 with a 3.84 ERA over 21 starts in 2013.

The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League West opponents. Toronto is 4-1 in Rogers' last 5 road starts. The Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with Toronto Monday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -121

The Chicago Cubs are playing some of their best baseball of the season heading into this series with the Milwaukee Brewers. They just swept the defending champion San Francisco Giants over the weekend on the road.

Chicago now faced a depleted Milwaukee Brewers team that is simply done for this season at 43-61. Milwaukee is without arguably its three best players in Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are banged up.

Jeff Samardzija is having a solid season for the Cubs, going 6-9 with a 3.94 ERA while striking out 139 batters over 137 innings. Samardzija has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 19-46 in their last 65 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 1-6 in Lohse's last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. The Brewers are 0-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. Chicago is 5-0 in its last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. These last three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +135

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing some of their best value of the entire season tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rarely will you ever get them as this big of an underdog.

St. Louis (62-40) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. I like it chances to bounce back with the underrated Jake Westbrook on the mound.

Westbrook has gone 7-4 with a 2.95 ERA over 14 starts this season for the Cardinals. In his lone start against Pittsburgh this season, Westbrook pitching six shutout innings of a 3-5 loss on April 27.

St. Louis is 12-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The Cardinals are 23-5 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. St. Louis is 16-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Francisco Liriano is 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the Cardinals Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -114

After losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves while scoring a combined one run in the process, the St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball to avoid the sweep.

With the edge the Cardinals have on the mound, this play has earned GOTY status. Shelby Miller is 10-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.093 WHIP through 19 starts this season. He's also 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Kris Medlen got off to a solid start this season, but he was one of the luckiest pitchers in the league. That luck has run out as Medlen is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.978 WHIP in his last three starts.

St. Louis is 23-4 (+18.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Better yet, the Cardinals are a perfect 12-0 (+12.8 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Reds/Dodgers NL Saturday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -123

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite over the Cincinnati Reds at home Saturday. They are playing their best baseball of the season right now, winning a major league-best 24 of 30 overall.

Los Angeles' Hyun-Jin Ryu has been at his best at home this season, going 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in nine starts. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has been at his worst on the road, going 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA in eight starts away from home.

The Reds are hitting .249 and scoring 3.9 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. The Dodgers are hitting .266 and scoring 4.3 runs/game against right-handed starters this year. Los Angeles is hitting .321 and scoring 6.9 runs/game in its last seven games overall.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as a favorite. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts overall. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Marlins UNDER 7.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins will play part in a pitcher's duel Saturday. These are two of the worst offenses in the league as the Pirates are hitting .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game, while the Marlins are hitting .232 and scoring 3.2 runs/game.

Both starting pitchers are underrated in this one. Charlie Morton has gone 2-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in seven starts this season. Tom Kohler has gone 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 11 starts and six relief appearances. Koehler is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts.

The Under is a perfect 10-0 in Miami's last 10 games overall. The Under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts as a favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Under is 9-0 in Marlins last 9 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -119

Getting the Baltimore Orioles as this small of a home favorite Saturday is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. They continue chasing down Boston and Tampa Bay for the top spot in the AL East standings.

Scott Feldman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 9-7 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 19 starts, including 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in eight home starts.

Boston's Ryan Dempster is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 5-8 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 20 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in six road starts.

The Red Sox are 22-51 in their last 73 games as an underdog. The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 16-5 in its last 21 games as a home favorite, and 21-8 in its last 29 home games overall. Take the Orioles Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Afternoon Total ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/Braves UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. The UNDER is 5-1 in Cardinals' last 6 games overall, and they have scored 4 runs or fewer in five of those.

The UNDER is 4-2 in Braves' last 6 games overall. They have scored 4 runs or fewer in five of those. Both starting pitchers tonight are very underrated, which is why this total has been inflated.

Joe Kelly has posted a 3.88 ERA on the season, including a 3.18 ERA in three starts this year for St. Louis. Julio Teheran is 7-5 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 19 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in nine home starts.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Kelly's last 6 road starts. The UNDER is 7-1 in Teheran's last 8 home starts. The UNDER is 10-3 in Teheran's last 13 starts overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +155

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Oakland A's. They want revenge from getting shut out by Bartolo Colon just five days ago on July 21st.

Not only that, Los Angeles cannot afford to lose to Oakland. It trails the A's by 10 games in the AL West race. It has done a good job of taking advantage in this series, winning three out of four vs. Oakland since the All-Star Break.

Jerome Williams has been at this best on the road this season as the Angels are 4-1 in his five road starts. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 road games vs. a right-handed start. Roll with the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Mound Mismatch on Kansas City Royals -118

The Kansas City Royals have a big edge on the mound tonight with James Shields over Jose Quintana. Plus, they have won three straight coming in, while the White Sox have lost six of their last nine to drop to 40-59 on the year.

Shields should have better than a 4-7 record this season, but he simply hasn't gotten the run support. He has posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 21 starts, including a 2.74 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 11 road starts.

Shields has faced the White Sox three times this season. He has given up just five earned runs over 19 innings for a 2.37 ERA. He has also struck out 19 batters while giving up 20 base runners in those three outings.

Chicago is 1-10 (-12.0 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games this season. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Kansas City is 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts as a favorite. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Kansas City. Take the Royals Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight coming in and now sit four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East division. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series Friday.

Chris Tillman has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 12-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 20 starts. Baltimore is 15-5 (+10.6 units) in those starts, meaning $1,000/game bettors would be up $10,600.

Tillman is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in seven career starts against Boston. He has gone 2-0 with a miniscule 0.93 ERA in his last three starts against the Red Sox, yielding just two earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in Tillman's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Orioles are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 home starts. Baltimore is 11-1 in Tillman's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -113

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won six straight games while going 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Cincinnati Reds because of it.

That's especially the case with Zach Greinke on the mound. The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 15 starts this season, and he simply doesn't lose at home. Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA in seven home starts this year.

If that's not enough, Greinke comes into this game pitching perhaps as well as he has his entire career over a 3-game stretch. He is 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing one earned run in 22 innings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Mat Latos has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP in his last three starts.

Greinke is a ridiculous 33-3 (+28.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is also an amazing 21-1 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Thursday.

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +101

The Los Angeles Angels really need to win this series with the Oakland A's to make up some ground in the AL West Division. They took two out of three from the A's in their first series out of the All-Star Break, and I look for them to take Game 1 tonight.

C.J. Wilson is having a tremendous year at 10-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts, including 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three. Wilson is 8-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 15 career starts against Oakland. That includes a dominant showing in his most recent start on July 20, pitching 8 1/3 shutout innings of a 2-0 Los Angeles victory.

Daniel Straily is simply no match for Wilson. He has not fared well in the past against Los Angeles, either. Straily is 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in four career starts against the Angels.

Wilson is 25-10 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 1-5 in Straily's last 6 starts vs. American League West opponents. Take the Angels Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +166

The Philadelphia Phillies get the nod Thursday as a massive road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. They do not want to get swept in this series, therefore they come into this contest highly motivated for a victory.

Philadelphia will be giving the ball to the underrated Kyle Kendrick, who is 9-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Kendrick has owned St. Louis, going 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals.

Lance Lynn is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. Lynn has gone 11-5 this season in spite of a 4.13 ERA over 20 starts. He has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in his last three outings.

Philadelphia is a very profitable 24-18 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. St. Louis is 4-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more this season. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Roll with Philadelphia Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +142

The San Diego Padres are showing tremendous value Wednesday. I backed them with success as a dog Tuesday, and I'll continue to do so Wednesday for many of the same reason.

Milwaukee's season is officially over with the suspension of Ryan Braun. It is also without arguably its other two best hitters in Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Carlos Gomez is banged up. The Brewers simply will not receive much run support the rest of the way.

While I will admit that the Brewers have the edge on the mound in this one, I believe the Padres' edge at the plate will make up for it. They pounded out 15 hits last night, and they are hitting .308 with seven homers and 34 runs scored in their last six games. Milwaukee is hitting .206 over its last 11 games, and it has just eight hits in the first two games of this series.

Milwaukee is 1-12 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 4-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Milwaukee is 3-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Take the Padres Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia Phillies +160

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. After losing their last three games overall, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

St. Louis doesn't have the kind of edge on the mound that would warrant this ridiculous line. Jake Westbrook has been very lucky to post a 2.88 ERA on the season in spite of his huge 1.402 WHIP. He's being overvalued here. Westbrook has posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has been dominant of late, going 1-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners over 16 innings. Lannan is also 2-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis.

Philadelphia is 14-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. St. Louis is 37-44 (-22.1 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 38-17 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Philadelphia Wednesday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -136

The Washington Nationals Wednesday represent one of my strongest selections for the entire 2013 MLB season. I look for them to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight to put an end to their current 5-game losing streak.

Ace Stephen Strasburg will be highly motivated to help his team put an end to this skid. Strasburg has quietly been dominant once again this season, but we are getting him at a discount because he doesn't have the same reputation as last year due to his 5-7 record.

I'll gladly take advantage and back Strasburg at this generous price. The right-hander has posted a 2.97 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including a miniscule 1.75 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Francisco Liriano is being overvalued in this spot tonight. He has pitched well in limited action for Pittsburgh this season, but I look for him to wear down as the season goes on. Liriano showed signed of that in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 3-5 loss to Cincinnati.

Strasburg is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. The Nationals are 3-0 in those contests, meaning that they have never lost with Strasburg starting against the Pirates. Bet Washington Wednesday.